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Looking Ahead to 2017: What to Watch For, Weather- and Climate-Wise

By: Bob Henson 1:51 PM GMT on December 30, 2016

Between a record-strong El Niño and catastrophic floods, fires, and drought, 2016 was a memorable year for weather and climate in North America as well as globally. What can we expect as we roll into 2017? A precise weather forecast is asking too much, but there is already a lot we can say about some key factors. Here are six developments to watch for in 2017. They’re presented in rough order of increasing confidence, followed by details on each prediction.

1. Better odds of El Niño than La Niña, but a neutral Pacific still favored
2. Wide range of possibilities for Atlantic hurricane action
3. More tornadoes and tornado deaths in 2017 than 2016? Probably so
4. A very warm year globally, but likely short of a record
5. Another new peak in global carbon dioxide
6. Slam dunk: a spectacular total eclipse in August


1. Better odds of El Niño than La Niña, but a neutral Pacific still favored
The biggest single driver of year-to-year atmospheric variations around the globe is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña. A year ago, it was virtually certain that the record-strong El Niño of 2015-16 would continue through at least the first few months of 2016, as it indeed did. This time around, the ENSO signal is far less clear-cut. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific have been inconclusive in recent months, hovering close to the La Niña threshold (at least -0.5°C below the seasonal average) since late July.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea surface temperature for this time of year as of mid-December show a diffuse, borderline La Niña signal across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

It’s now become less likely that the ocean and atmosphere will commit to a well-defined La Niña event for early 2017. There’s almost no telling what will happen later in the year, on the other side of the infamous “spring predictability barrier” that often separates one El Niño or La Niña event from another. One clue we do have is the unusual persistence this year of a belt of warmer-than-average SSTs from the central tropical Pacific to the west coast of North America. This warm phase of what’s called the Pacific Meridional Mode may herald a new El Niño event in 2017-18, as niftily explained by Dan Vimont (University of Wisconsin Center for Climatic Research) in a recent climate.gov post.

In their joint probabilistic outlook issued in early December, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) called for decreasing odds of La Niña over the next few months, dropping to just 18% by late spring. Neutral conditions are deemed most likely by CPC/IRI, with 65% odds by spring and 53% by summer. And the odds of El Niño are expected to steadily rise throughout the first half of 2017, reaching 29% by summer. Strong El Niño events like the one we just had are usually followed by a significant La Niña event. If the atmosphere instead ends up cueing El Niño for 2017-18, it would reinforce the notion that we’ve entered a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation--a sign that we might expect more El Niño than La Niña events for as long as a decade or two.


Figure 2. Probabilities of El Niño (red), La Niña (blue), and neutral conditions (green), for each overlapping three-month period from November-January 2016-17 (left) to July-September 2017 (right). These probabilities are set each month by forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Image credit: NOAA/IRI.

2. Wide range of possibilities for Atlantic hurricane action
The well-predicted demise of the 2015-16 El Niño boosted confidence in 2016’s largely successful seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic, where wind shear was down from 2015 and sea-surface temperatures saw a spike atop their long-term warming trend. (See our roundup post from December 27 on global tropical cyclones in 2016 and their connections to climate change.) Because ENSO is one of the biggest shapers of Atlantic hurricane seasons, our current uncertainty about next year’s ENSO state means we can’t say much yet about whether the 2017 Atlantic tropical season will be hectic, sedate, or somewhere in between.

Forecasters at Colorado State University no longer issue formal seasonal hurricane outlooks as early as December, but CSU’s Dr. Phil Klotzbach laid out his thoughts for us last week in a qualitative discussion. Along with monitoring ENSO, Klotzbach also keeps close tabs on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Atlantic thermohaline circulation, which are cyclic natural variations in SST, surface air pressure, and oceanic flow across the North Atlantic. When the AMO is positive (warm) and the THC is strong, the Atlantic pumps out more hurricanes over periods that can range from 25 to 35 years. At other times, unusually cold waters prevail in the far North Atlantic, typically a sign of a slowdown of the THC and a ramp-down in Atlantic hurricane action.


Figure 3. Warmer-than-average waters covered most of the Atlantic Ocean from the equator northward for the period December 1 - 18, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, courtesy Phil Klotzbach.

With cold waters widespread across the far north Atlantic in 2014 and 2015, Klotzbach hypothesized in a 2015 Science article that the active Atlantic period that began in 1995 may have already drawn to a close. Now he’s not so sure. “I was generally thinking we had moved into a cold AMO, but we haven't yet seen the re-emergence of the cold anomalies in the far North Atlantic like we have the past couple of winters (at least not yet!),” Klotzbach told me in an email. For this analysis, Klotzbach typically uses SSTs across a box roughly bounded by 50°N-60°N latitude and 10°W-50°W longitude. Figure 3 shows that only part of this area currently has below-average SSTs. “We're just now moving into the height of winter, though, so we may still see some reemergence and anomalous cooling in the far North Atlantic this winter,” said Klotzbach. “I decided to hedge with the outlook so far, and hopefully we'll have a better idea of what is coming up by the time the April forecast rolls around.” Here are the five possibilities (with odds) put forth by Klotzbach in his December update:

40% chance: AMO/THC is above average and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 130)
20% chance: AMO/THC becomes very strong in 2017 and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 170)
20% chance: AMO/THC is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80)
10% chance: AMO/THC is above average and El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80)
10% chance: AMO/THC is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50)

3. More tornadoes and tornado deaths in 2017 than 2016? Probably so
It’s been a blessedly quiet year for U.S. tornadoes, climatologically speaking. According to Patrick Marsh (NOAA Storm Prediction Center), the year 2016 delivered a preliminary total of 1060 tornado reports through December 28, with few or none expected through the rest of the year. This may sound like a very high total, but the number of final tornado reports typically drops from the preliminary total by about 15% after duplicate reports have been weeded out. The annual number drops even further relative to prior years when it's adjusted for “inflation” against earlier decades, when fewer people were watching and reporting every twister. Using a linear trend adjustment, Marsh estimates that the final, inflation-adjusted tornado total for 2016 will be around 888, which would be the lowest for any year going back to at least 1954 assuming that the database is normalized (inflation-adjusted) through 2015. "Four of the last five years--2016, 2014, 2013, and 2012--have been the quietest years on record when report inflation is accounted for," says Marsh.

This year did produce a few dramatic outbreaks during peak tornado season, but these played out mostly in open country, where few structures were damaged and few people were hurt. The deadliest events of 2016 were “off-season”: seven people died in a Southeast and East Coast tornado outbreak on February 23-24--the nation’s second-largest February outbreak on record--and five deaths occurred across the South during an overnight outbreak on November 29-30.


Figure 4. Lightning lights up the night sky behind a home in Waverly, Va, that was hit by a tornado earlier in the day, Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016. Image credit: Todd Spencer/ The Virginian-Pilot via AP.

All told, tornadoes have killed only 17 people in the United States in 2016, well below the average toll of 46 per year over the three prior years. Assuming we make it to December 31 without any additional tornado deaths, which looks almost certain, we’ll have been graced with the least-deadly U.S. year for twisters since 1986, when only 15 people were killed. In data going back to 1875 provided by Harold Brooks (National Severe Storms Laboratory), the only other year with fewer than 20 deaths was 1910, with just 12 fatalities.


Figure 5. During El Niño events (top), the frequency of U.S. tornadoes typically drops. When a La Niña phase prevails (bottom), tornado frequency goes up (indicated by red areas). The effect is strongest in the boxed area. Image credit: From Allen et al., “Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States,” Nature Geoscience 2015, courtesy IRI.

The strong El Niño of 2015-16 likely helped tamp down tornado activity this year, at least in the heart of Tornado Alley. Researchers at IRI/Columbia University have shown that the most active spring seasons for tornado and hail over the central U.S., especially the Southern Plains, are linked to strong La Niña events, while the very quietest seasons are related to strong El Niño events. In January 2015, the researchers, led by John Allen (now at Central Michigan University), called for better-than-even odds (54%) of a below-average number of tornadoes this year, as opposed to the 33/33/33% split (below, above, and near average) one would otherwise expect. (See more details at this conference presentation.)

As with Atlantic hurricanes, even a mostly quiet season can still produce deadly mayhem if one destructive event, such as a major landfalling hurricane or a family of violent tornadoes, happens to hit the wrong place at the wrong time. “It’s an ongoing challenge to think about how to convey this information,” Allen told me. “I think it’s also worth noting that we still don't have a lot of other climate signals for improving our forecasts when we don't have ENSO-driven predictability.” It’s thus hard to tell how tornado counts will evolve in 2017, since the ENSO signal is so weak. However, given the very low activity this year, there’s a good chance that we will see more twisters prowling the nation in 2017 than we did in 2016.


Figure 6. The U.K. Met Office predicts that the 2017 global temperature (forecast range shown in green at right) will likely fall below the record value expected to be set in 2016. The dark line shows global temperature since 1850 as calculated by an average of analyses by the Met Office/Hadley Centre, NASA, and NOAA. Each of the three agencies uses slightly different techniques to account for sparsely populated regions, such as the poles. These differences have very little effect on the year-to-year trends, which are in very close agreement for all three analyses. The shaded band shows the 95% uncertainty range for each annual data point. Image credit: U.K. Met Office.

4. A very warm year globally, but likely short of a record
Barring a major, sun-blocking volcanic eruption, we can expect 2017 to continue the long-term warming trend of the last few decades attributed to human-produced greenhouse gases. However, 2017 is unlikely to continue the string of global record highs set in 2014, 2015, and (virtually certainly) 2016. The record-strong El Niño of 2015-16, which sent vast amounts of heat from ocean to atmosphere, played a key role in pushing temperatures just enough above the long-term warming trend to set new global highs. Now that this major El Niño is gone, it’s no surprise that global atmospheric heat is already subsiding a bit relative to seasonal norms--though it would be a huge mistake to interpret this totally expected dip as any sign that longer-term warming has gone away.

On December 20, the U.K. Met Office released its official outlook for 2017 (see Figure 6). The agency projects that global temperature will end up between 0.63 and 0.87°C (1.45 – 1.89°F) above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C (57.2°F). “This forecast, which uses the new Met Office supercomputer, adds weight to our earlier prediction that 2017 will be very warm globally but is unlikely to exceed 2015 and 2016: the two warmest years on record since 1850,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office. According to research fellow Chris Folland: “2016 was well forecast as the methods used detected the warming influence of the strong El Niño. However, last year's El Niño only accounts for around 0.2°C of the global mean temperature rise for 2016, when compared with the long-term average between 1961 and 1990. Increasing greenhouse gases are the main cause of warming since pre-industrial times.”


Figure 7. Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million in the atmosphere) as measured atop Mauna Loa, Hawaii, in 2015 and 2016. Along with daily, weekly, and monthly variability, there is a reliable yearly cycle associated with the growth and decay of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere (where most of Earth’s land is located), as well as a steady long-term rise in concentrations due to fossil fuel burning. Image credit: keelingcurve.com, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

5. Another new peak in global carbon dioxide
Sadly, our highest-confidence forecast for the atmosphere is that carbon dioxide concentrations will continue their relentless upward march. The burning of fossil fuels continues to release more than 35 billion metric tons of CO2, an invisible greenhouse gas, every year. (That’s about 10,300 pounds for every person on Earth.) Just over half of that total is absorbed by plants, soil, and the sea each year. The rest stays in the atmosphere, much of it destined to stay there for many hundreds and even thousands of years.

CO2 values measured atop Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii are once again rising toward the usual spring peak after hitting their annual low in late September of around 401 parts per million. Because most of Earth’s plant life is north of the equator, atmospheric CO2 drops with the growth of CO2-absorbing vegetation in late northern spring and summer, and it increases again each winter and spring as vegetation dies off. We can expect daily and weekly CO2 values in spring 2017 to soar above 410 ppm for the first time in human history, and it’s even possible the monthly average will hit that mark as well.

The final weekly value below 400 ppm that we’ll see in our lives is virtually certain to be the 399.86 ppm value recorded in late August 2015 during the approach of Hurricane Madeline. As that hurricane approached Hawaii from the east, its circulation is believed to have imported slightly lower-CO2 air from north of Hawaii.


Figure 8. A total solar eclipse will occur along the belt shown here on August 21, 2017. All of North America and parts of South America will experience at least a partial solar eclipse. Image credit: Fred Espenak (NASA/GSFC), MrEclipse.com

6. Slam-dunk forecast: a spectacular total eclipse in August
We can say with rock-solid confidence that a large swath of the United States will be treated to one of the most widely viewable total solar eclipses in U.S. history (if the weather cooperates!) on August 21, 2017. The band of totality--the region where the sun will be completely obscured by the moon for as long as 2 minutes and 40 seconds--will extend from northern Oregon across the central Plains and mid-South to South Carolina (see Figure 8). Millions of Americans will be within an hour or two’s drive of the totality band, and untold numbers of people from across the world are heading to the States for the big show. The timing of totality will range from about 10 AM PDT on the West Coast to around 2:45 PM EDT on the East Coast. This means that the mid-August sun will be quite high in the sky for the eclipse, enhancing the potential drama.

NASA has a plethora of great material on the upcoming eclipse, including an excellent “Eclipse 101” page with crucial safety tips (for example, never look at an uneclipsed or partially eclipsed sun without specially designed glasses that meet international standards for eclipse viewing). Obviously, there’s no telling what the weather will be doing on August 21, but the perfectly named Eclipseophile website has state-by-state breakdowns of where climatology leans toward the best views. As one might expect, the highest odds of cloud-free skies and dry air are toward the western United States.


Figure 9. Children use protective glasses to look into the sky during a partial solar eclipse outside the Planetario in Madrid, Spain, on the morning of March 20, 2015. The moon covered up to 65 percent of the sun. Image credit: Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images.


Figure 10. This photo montage shows the moon passing in front of the sun (top left to bottom right) during a total solar eclipse in the city of Ternate, in Indonesia's Maluku Islands, on March 9, 2016. The total eclipse swept across the Indonesian archipelago on March 9, witnessed by tens of thousands of skygazers and marked by parties, Muslim prayers, and tribal rituals. Image credit: Bay Ismoyo/AFP/Getty Images.

Bob Henson

El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I had to work outside for about 30 minutes this morning.
48 degrees with a 15-20 mph wind out of the north.
I was so cold.
I hate it.

I miss the temps in the 80s we had all month. We were only two days from breaking the all time warmest December on record in Fort Myers. These two cold days will probably make us just miss the record. It will be close.
Whoa, I was first brought here, then somehow I got rainbowed, then to the last post, and now I'm back here where I started. Morning.
thanxs for the new blog nice change in the weather today here on the east coast of Florida
Thanks for all your wonderful blogging Bob and Doc. Happy New Years from Memphis, TN
Quoting 2. Xandra:



Feeling hot hot hot
Good morning, WU. 11F and foggy, with freezing fog, this morning in Salt Lake City. Headed for a high today of 31F. Going to be a chilly New Year's Eve tomorrow, low of 11F.
Quoting 1. Sfloridacat5:

I had to work outside for about 30 minutes this morning.
48 degrees with a 15-20 mph wind out of the north.
I was so cold.
I hate it.

I miss the temps in the 80s we had all month. We were only two days from breaking the all time warmest December on record in Fort Myers. These two cold days will probably make us just miss the record. It will be close.


Thanks for keeping us updated on the weather down there, SFcat5. I feel your pain. we flew out of balmy Bonita Springs yesterday, back home to a frigid Philly night. I am not adjusting. :-[
Cool. Thanks for the graphs, make it easier to spread the word to "cell phone" weather watchers. People who are only interested in the current weather conditions and daily forecast.
10. vis0
As to the Slam-dunk glad you added the "if weather" though if enough add cameras to their "toy" drones and can fly above the clouds the FAA will have to shut most flights due to the dangers. #YHiH1st ...(ya herd it hear first...as to wind-power don't forget to read 480 of the previous cat6 blogbyte.)

As to nino-nina i think its more that this planet uses the ENSO area as one of several built in exhaust methods.  Maybe as the planet stays warm(er) more quasi-Nino occur when before it was a neutral year and more super-Ninos when it was to be a Moderate Nino. Also this warming of the Globe might create independent ENSO areas as to have a mini-swing-nina like on Enso 3+4 and mini-swing-nino on ENSO1+2.  By mini-swing i mean it starts as "that" but never fully builds across the Pac.

And be ready (not read the HUGE MISTAKE link) for $keptics to yell its a cooler year as they compare 2017 to 2016, like me having 102F fever then the next day a person whom plays a Dr. on TV saying go home your fever has gone down over the past week...as its 101.8F

have a safe and happy "resolongness" (New years version of Festavus)
I'm so excited for the August 2017 eclipse! I'll be in northern Georgia doing the one thing one normally shouldn't do in astronomy, staring directly at the sun!
Looks like Maine is the jackpot for snow totals (and it's still snowing there).

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 3 FOR NEW ENGLAND WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2016

...A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 AM EST...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES...WAS LOCATED NEAR
BANGOR...MAINE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY...A COASTAL FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK COASTS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW OVER MAINE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING DOWNWIND OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST THU DEC
29 THROUGH 300 AM EST FRI DEC 30...

...MAINE...
NAPLES 27.0
N WATERBORO 25.6
LIMERICK 25.3
ACTON 24.0
ALFRED 24.0


(snipped other snow totals)

THE STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN MAINE
NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHERE ANOTHER 8 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...HIGH WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORM ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 1000 AM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

TATE

(Source)
Quoting 11. CybrTeddy:

I'm so excited for the August 2017 eclipse! I'll be in northern Georgia doing the one thing one normally shouldn't do in astronomy, staring directly at the sun!


Please wear eye protection when doing so. Even during full totality!
Quoting 13. ohiofog:



Please wear eye protection when doing so. Even during full totality!


I was kidding. I own proper solar filters. :)
15. vis0

Quoting 3. washingaway:

Whoa, I was first brought here, then somehow I got rainbowed, then to the last post, and now I'm back here where I started. Morning.
GOOD to see ya made it to the pot of gold information**.

for $ke......::
**(well at least from the Bloggers side and those presenting helpful to humanity backed up with up to date scientific info)

...sure some spelling errors but if your in a burning building and don't know that and one yells out FRYERRR get out quick i think most will not complain that the "yeller" saved ones (assumed) good life.
16. vis0
Quoting 14. CybrTeddy:



I was kidding. I own proper solar filters. :)
What's the rule of thumb if one views it through cameras (In my day it was the same as viewing it with the naked eye, DO NOT WATCH the SUN or any direct image of sun w/o protection...[picking on myself] vis0 stop slathering sun lotion 100 not that kind of protection [picking on myself]
Was reading through an article in the current issue of EOS, where this image was. The area circled in red is not obvious to me. Is the circled area North Dakota? Can anyone confirm?

Quoting 15. vis0:


GOOD to see ya made it to the pot of gold information**.

for $ke......::
**(well at least from the Bloggers side and those presenting helpful to humanity backed up with up to date scientific info)

...sure some spelling errors but if your in a burning building and don't know that and one yells out FRYERRR get out quick i think most will not complain that the "yeller" saved ones (assumed) good life.


Never waz a good speller. Probably worse now since I've gotten so dependent on those squiggly red lines which don't show up on my iPad. Why do we spell the word sky without an i and spell the word ski without an e? Why can't an i be an i and an e be an e?
Quoting 16. vis0:

What's the rule of thumb if one views it through cameras (In my day it was the same as viewing it with the naked eye, DO NOT WATCH the SUN or any direct image of sun w/o protection...[picking on myself] vis0 stop slathering sun lotion 100 not that kind of protection [picking on myself]


In regards to cameras, the rule of thumb is don't be staring through the camera viewfinder for the entire eclipse. Make sure everything's automated (a shutter release with a set interval of different exposures ranging from 1" to 1/40" should do) so that all of your attention is focused on enjoying the eclipse with your own two eyes.
If anyone is willing to go out on a limb - -

(cause I know how ya'll feel about those 384 hour forecasts)

can someone give me a guesstimate of temps here in NE Fla ( Jacksonville) say... Jan-Feb?

Does anyone see any crazy hard freezes coming? Climate is where I live, but weather -

weather is what I eat.
Quoting 17. LAbonbon:

Was reading through an article in the current issue of EOS, where this image was. The area circled in red is not obvious to me. Is the circled area North Dakota? Can anyone confirm?




It is the oil fields of the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Yes it is North Dakota and Montana also into Canada
22. vis0
Quoting 17. LAbonbon:

Was reading through an article in the current issue of EOS, where this image was. The area circled in red is not obvious to me. Is the circled area North Dakota? Can anyone confirm?




going shopping but heres some help

city lights:: (please ignore HHjoe  and HHjoe's magcenetric powers)

closist lights seem to be in Canada in this NASA img

USofA states::(for those not inthe know)

NW - Mid-Western States
Has the blog gotten slow or is everybody in rainbow land? Hola!
Quoting 23. washingaway:

Has the blog gotten slow or is everybody in rainbow land? Hola!





This feature has reached its end.


https://www.wunderground.com/product-sunset.asp
Quoting 11. CybrTeddy:

I'm so excited for the August 2017 eclipse! I'll be in northern Georgia doing the one thing one normally shouldn't do in astronomy, staring directly at the sun!


Do not look at eclipse with remaining eye.
a number of raggedy fallstreak holes formed today over Toronto, the cirrus clouds immediately aiding in the formation of rainbows :)

Quoting 17. LAbonbon:

Was reading through an article in the current issue of EOS, where this image was. The area circled in red is not obvious to me. Is the circled area North Dakota? Can anyone confirm?




Minot, ND to Estevan, Manitoba maybe. The res is poor and looks like some distortion which is making it look like some giant metroplex exists along our northern border, but other than those two there doesn't appear to be any other major developed areas in that region.

I originally thought it might be Winnipeg, but the blob is too far west and south for that I think.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

Looks like most of December storm # 4 will go a bit north of me......Perhaps Pedley will get more...at least looks like I may get a bit.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The upper low that we`ve been tracking for several days is
advancing NE early this morning and is just west of Pt.
Conception now. Bands of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
are spinning onto the central coast early this morning. This
activity will gradually advance ESE and will affect Orange and San
Bernardino Counties this morning, and eventually bring some
showers to the remainder of the area this afternoon and evening.
PWATS with this system continue to be just over 1" so some
moderate showers will occur at times however the best area of moisture
plume looks to target areas just to the north so precip amounts
will be light to moderate across far So-Cal through tonight.

A vigorous S/W trough currently over the PacNW will drop due south
on Saturday and deepen into a closed low as it spins just off the
California coast. There will be some light showers Saturday
morning at times, mainly west of the mountains, in advance of the
cold low. Moisture advection is looking a little better with this
system and have bumped up both pops and QPF for much of our area,
predominantly late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.
Cold core system will bring the threat of thunderstorms and
briefly low snow levels Saturday evening...this will likely affect
the busy interstate passes as well as bring some heavy bursts of
precip to the lower elevations. Weekend holiday travel impacts are
a concern given this fast moving vigorous system.

Quoting 17. LAbonbon:

Was reading through an article in the current issue of EOS, where this image was. The area circled in red is not obvious to me. Is the circled area North Dakota? Can anyone confirm?




Bakken Formation - North Dakota and Canada?




Link

The answer my friend is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind
Quoting 17. LAbonbon:

Was reading through an article in the current issue of EOS, where this image was. The area circled in red is not obvious to me. Is the circled area North Dakota? Can anyone confirm?




Isn't that the oilfields area?
Quoting 31. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Isn't that the oilfields area?


Yes the Bakken Formation Oilfields

Thank you everyone for weighing in on the 'mystery', although obviously it wasn't a mystery to some of you. Surprising how large the complex is. Special thanks to nrtiwlnvragn for providing a closeup of the complex (as well as other oil fields) - very cool link. I especially liked the discussion at the end of the series of images.

Edit - thanks to daddyjames for the link as well. And thanks to nymore for mentioning the Three Forks formation - it's new to me :)
I got Rainbowed again.

So I left a note for those still back in 2005.

It was rather lengthy.

Since it is Fry-day, we're going with the Trout Almondine for Dinner service tonight.

Dessert, Fresh Pecan Pie too.




Quoting 19. CybrTeddy:



In regards to cameras, the rule of thumb is don't be staring through the camera viewfinder for the entire eclipse. Make sure everything's automated (a shutter release with a set interval of different exposures ranging from 1" to 1/40" should do) so that all of your attention is focused on enjoying the eclipse with your own two eyes.
Also important that the camera should also have a protective filter -- the heat from the full Sun can damage the lens and/or burn up the diaphragm lens stop. Just like the telescope instructions say, never point it at the Sun without filtration.


What's next? Hazmat suits?



I've worked and built refineries at night in Se Louisiana,,and one can see a refineries Lights over the Horizon if the clouds are jus so. Tens of Miles away.

When I took my Hale Bopp Images along the western Shore of Lake Pontchartrain in April 97',..the Baton Rouge Skyglow is seen in most frames.







Quoting 33. LAbonbon:

Thank you everyone for weighing in on the 'mystery', although obviously it wasn't a mystery to some of you. Surprising how large the complex is. Special thanks to nrtiwlnvragn for providing a closeup of the complex (as well as other oil fields) - very cool link. I especially liked the discussion at the end of the series of images.
Speculation: between the flaring of gas (because it's too expensive to haul it out of there) and the lighting, have to wonder if they are near a break-even point in energy lost versus energy gained. It is a very large area being tapped and lit -- obviously larger than any of the Eastern seaboard metro areas.
Maneuvering though this blog is like driving over speed bumps every 20 feet. Can we get a status report WU.
Are you Dave's daughter? Thanks

Quoting 8. WatermansDaughter:



Thanks for keeping us updated on the weather down there, SFcat5. I feel your pain. we flew out of balmy Bonita Springs yesterday, back home to a frigid Philly night. I am not adjusting. :-[
Quoting 39. washingaway:

Maneuvering though this blog is like driving over speed bumps every 20 feet. Can we get a status report WU.



Have to remember that the blogs are only one little component of WU.
In my opinion I think that they are doing work on the whole site.
Something like converting everything to big data and or cloud.
Its much easier to "fix" things when dedicated servers are used.

I have to agree though about the status report ...would be kind of nice to know whats going on
Quoting 37. Patrap:

I've worked and built refineries at night in Se Louisiana,,and one can see a refineries Lights over the Horizon if the clouds are jus so. Tens of Miles away.

When I took my Hale Bopp Images along the western Shore of Lake Pontchartrain in April 97',..the Baton Rouge Skyglow is seen in most frames.








Followed it many a night out in the Anza-Borrego State Park in the desert! I have a small 8"Dobsonian reflector telescope. The year before Hale-Bopp we had Comet C/1996 B2 Hyakutake



BLOG ALERT!
Don't use the preview button, it makes things worse. I get the boot almost every time.
2016 South Florida Weather Year in Review

Excerpt:

#3: Severe Thunderstorms and Meteotsunami in Naples: January 17th

The squall line also caused what’s known as a “meteotsunami”, a tsunami-like wave of meteorological origin caused by traveling air pressure disturbances often associated with squall lines. Data from the NOAA tide gauge at Naples Pier recorded an increase in the water level of 3 -5 feet shortly after the passage of the squall line, resulting in flooding of areas near the beach. An estimated 1 foot of water inundated beachfront streets for a short time after the meteotsunami moved onshore.
I keep running into obvious PR pieces like this:

Skeptical Climate Scientists Coming In From the Cold


I am pretty well convinced that a campaign against climate science is about to go into high gear, and that you all are about to take much heavier hits than you are expecting.

I don't say that to instill fear, but to instill fight. If you don't pull yourselves together fast, Climate Science will get totaled. Here are some of the things that you can do.

Identify all the species of fake news, their methods, levels of sophistication, and the operators behind them, and how to counter-act them.

Immediately put together a crack volunteer team of CS grad students to debunk the debunkers. The method for this is to have a site where fake science can be reported. Then anyone, or group from that team can address directly why the piece is fake news, post it, and send copies to all the major newspapers and whatever other outlets are out there. This will keep before the public eye that there is a fake news campaign against climate science (not to mention science in general, but for now this group should maybe keep its focus.

Immediately install in climate science grad programs courses on public relations, lobbying, and corporate strategies, and how to deal with all those dynamics both as individuals and as groups.

Enlist Anonymous.

There are certainly other things you can do, but you had better get on it fast. If you think climate change is happening fast, it may very well not hold a candle to the impending speed of climate science change.

Thanks to the WU IT people I am no longer in Eastern Europe (Sofia Bulgaria)...good job
Thanks to Bob Henson for the new Post..
I remember that comet joe.

I used my CANON AE-1 on the Scopes tripod and mount..and did 30 sec exposures with KODAK ASA 1000 Royal Gold film, chilled with CO2.

Mosquitoes were really bad, but the moonless night and water under I-55 made for some great shots.


Always neat to look back at those early wunderblog entries here.

Hale-Bopp 10 years later
By: Patrap , 5:55 AM CDT on March 28, 2007





Quoting 33. LAbonbon:

Thank you everyone for weighing in on the 'mystery', although obviously it wasn't a mystery to some of you. Surprising how large the complex is. Special thanks to nrtiwlnvragn for providing a closeup of the complex (as well as other oil fields) - very cool link. I especially liked the discussion at the end of the series of images.

Edit - thanks to daddyjames for the link as well. And thanks to nymore for mentioning the Three Forks formation - it's new to me :)


Agree..... very good info and reading. Thanks daddyjames!
My favs are all Europe.Soviet Bloc still

Plovdiv, BU
32 °F Overcast

Veliko Tarnovo, BU
27.3 °F Overcast

Moscow, RS
31.5 °F Overcast

Warsaw, PL
33.8 °F Clear

Prague, CZ
27 °F Patches of Fog

London, UK
37 °F Fog


Quoting 27. Xyrus2000:



Minot, ND to Estevan, Manitoba maybe. The res is poor and looks like some distortion which is making it look like some giant metroplex exists along our northern border, but other than those two there doesn't appear to be any other major developed areas in that region.

I originally thought it might be Winnipeg, but the blob is too far west and south for that I think.


Estevan is in Saskatchewan not Manitoba. Minot is the tiny dot just East of the blob and Winnipeg is about 6 or 7 hours away by car. I have been to these oil fields many many times. Have any questions feel free to ask.
Quoting 21. nymore:



It is the oil fields of the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Yes it is North Dakota and Montana also into Canada


That's amazing.... there used to be NOTHING there, except a few small cities.... which would've shown up only as the tiniest dots.
(waves from Belarus)
Quoting 50. Patrap:

I remember that comet joe.

I used my CANON AE-1 on the Scopes tripod and mount..and did 30 sec exposures with KODAK ASA 1000 Royal Gold film, chilled with CO2.

Mosquitoes were really bad, but the moonless night and water under I-55 made for some great shots.


Always neat to look back at those early wunderblog entries here.

Hale-Bopp 10 years later
By: Patrap , 5:55 AM CDT on March 28, 2007








Great pic's and write up Patrap! We got spoiled in back to back years for sure. Hale-Bopp with both dust and gas and Hyakutake with a gas tail that had to be 3-4 fists at arms length long and very bright green/blue, came very close to earth at 9 million miles away. The much larger in size Hale-Bopp's closest approach was about 122 million miles. Ya just never know what kind of show comets will put on for us earthly viewers.
Quoting 54. MontanaZephyr:



That's amazing.... there used to be NOTHING there, except a few small cities.... which would've shown up only as the tiniest dots.


Yes it is amazing. The picture will get less and less noticeable as the gas flares are hooked up to pipeline gathering systems.

On the weather front expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow today then maybe up to 8 or 10 on Monday going into Tuesday. I am sick of plowing snow and it has only begun.
Rain has started
My response to astronomical phenomena is pretty lazy. Woke up on March 20, 2015, approximately at midday, and went to balcony, since the sun was shining. I thought it would be warm and I could easily sunbathe. For a time I wondered why it was cold despite the sunlight, which seemed unusually dim. Then I remembered the eclipse, cursed the Moon for interfering with my plans, and went back inside.

And regarding what to watch for in 2017. Most of all, I'm waiting to see, if North Pole becomes ice-free.
I was able to delete all those Favorite Cities (left one) and it has stayed at one through logoff from WU and computer reset.
In the context of the arguing yesterday over mathematical equations.
You are with two scientist. One says we're to close. The other other one says we're fine, no way it can reach us. They begin to argue over the equations. So, what do you do?

An interesting side note in regards to the temperature anomaly.

The standard formula for estimating temperature increase in response to CO2 is:

dT = lambda*5.35*ln(C/Co)

Where lambda is climate sensitivity (.54 to 1.2, most likely value is around .9), C is current CO2 and Co is reference CO2. It's been estimated there's about a 30 year lag between the introduction of new CO2 and when the full impacts of that new addition are fully realized. So:

C = CO2 of approximately 30 years ago, which is about 360 ppm
Co = CO2 of approximately 1960, the beginning of the range in the 1961-1990 which is about 316 ppm

This yields an anomaly anywhere between .38C to .83C with a most likely anomaly around .6C. Add in the .2C of El Nino and you get a range of .58C to 1.03C with a most likely around .8C above the 1961-1990, which is well within the ballpark for this past year.

Now what about our current CO2 levels? In thirty years, what can we expect? Our current CO2 level is around 404 ppm. Plugging that in, you get a range of .71C to 1.58C with a most likely 1.15C above the 1961-1990 average, without a strong El Nino or La Nina.

However...

The 2C refrain often heard is not in regards to the 1961-1990 time period, but the pre-industrial period (280 ppm). Using the pre-industrial value, the range for 30 years into the future is 1.06C to 2.35C with a most likely of 1.71C. So 2C+ anomalies in as little as 30 years are definitely within the realm of possibility especially during El Nino years and will become the norm within the next 50 years. It may happen even sooner depending on exactly how much of an impact melting clathrates, collapsing permafrost, etc. have in accelerating GHG concentrations.

In short, there's no way to prevent a 2C rise by the end of the century and we'll likely exceed it prior to 2060.

But as far next year is concerned, short of an unexpected strong La Nina I'm betting the anomaly will be around .6C or so above the 1961-1990 average.
Quoting 51. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Agree..... very good info and reading. Thanks daddyjames!


Oops. I was focusing on urban development. :D

Those oil fields are quite extensive.
Quoting 37. Patrap:
When I took my Hale Bopp Images along the western Shore of Lake Pontchartrain in April 97',..the Baton Rouge Skyglow is seen in most frames.
That might have been New Sarpy.
Quoting 59. elioe:

My response to astronomical phenomena is pretty lazy. Woke up on March 20, 2015, approximately at midday, and went to balcony, since the sun was shining. I thought it would be warm and I could easily sunbathe. For a time I wondered why it was cold despite the sunlight, which seemed unusually dim. Then I remembered the eclipse, cursed the Moon for interfering with my plans, and went back inside.

And regarding what to watch for in 2017. Most of all, I'm waiting to see, if North Pole becomes ice-free.


It's not very likely. The conditions are shaping up for a new low (even with "average" conditions), but even with 2012 or 2007 conditions it wouldn't be enough to bring it to "ice-free" levels. It goes without saying that the ice pack is more of a slush pack these days, but even the slush requires a fair amount of energy to melt down. :)

Nothing showing from this morning on CoCoRaHS. 2.80" for that 9 day period....
KRAL has reported .07, Indian Hills .04
Quoting 61. washingaway:

In the context of the arguing yesterday over mathematical equations.
You are with two scientist. One says we're to close. The other other one says we're fine, no way it can reach us. They begin to argue over the equations. So, what do you do?




Push in between them and scream about it all being a liberal conspiracy, eruptions have happened before, and there's nothing we can do about it anyway. :P
Prof. Adam Scaife, at the Met Office in the UK:

"This run of three record years is unprecedented and, without climate change, would be a one in a million chance."

Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany:

“These [records] are very worrying signs and I think it shows we are on a crash course with the Paris targets unless we change course very, very fast. I hope people realise that global warming is not something down the road, but it is here now and it affecting us now.

What is happening right now is we are catapulting ourselves out of the Holocene, which is the geological epoch that human civilisation has been able to develop in, because of the relatively stable climate. It allowed us to invent agriculture, rather than living as nomads. It allowed a big population growth, it allowed the foundation of cities, all of which required a stable climate.”

Prof Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US:

“The impacts of human-caused climate change are no longer subtle – they are playing out, in real time, before us. They serve as a constant reminder now of how critical it is that we engage in the actions necessary to avert ever-more dangerous and potentially irreversible warming of the planet.”

(Source)


NASA visualization shows carbon dioxide swirling around the globe
Hopefully all skies will be clear on August 21st for the eclipse. This will be my second, as I live near St. Louis now which is near the area of maximum totality length. My first was in Germany in August 1999, as a total eclipse crossed most of northern and eastern Europe. Unfortunately, most places were socked in by rain and clouds that day. By pure luck, the eclipse went total at my location, near Munich, between thunderstorms and we saw about half of the totality time. Had good video of it, which I cannot find now. It is great to see, but an awful lot of hype for something only lasting 2 min and 40 seconds. Of course it is the rarity that makes it special. But if you get the chance, don't miss it!
pitter pat.....pitter pat.........love the sound of rain! Soo Cal getting spoiled this month with 5 storms. Hope mother nature does not turn off the spigot. It's been 5 days since last rains so these 2 storms should soak in nicely.
Quoting 37. Patrap:

I've worked and built refineries at night in Se Louisiana,,and one can see a refineries Lights over the Horizon if the clouds are jus so. Tens of Miles away.

When I took my Hale Bopp Images along the western Shore of Lake Pontchartrain in April 97',..the Baton Rouge Skyglow is seen in most frames.










Love it! Back in the days of film. I was too young to photograph Hale-Bopp. The late 90s were absolutely incredible years for comets. Comet Hyakutake in 1996, and then Comet Hale-Bopp in 1997. We haven't seen a good comet like those two in years. At least we know that in 2061 there'll be one great comet.
ESPI is -1.20 today... SOI is contradictory being way negative, which has been the norm lately so, I'll go with La Nina conditions continue for at least the next 6-8 weeks. Which most likely will be enough to make this an official La Nina event. Looking at T-Depth anomalies and the heat in the West Pacific plus PDO & spring barrier..not going out much farther than that with any real certainty.

Ice & Volcanoes... There has been a huge shift in sea ice decline in the last few months. It's deviated in such a way that it seems like some other ramifications are coming down the pike at us next year as a result. With the recent awakening of two calderas, some underwater volcanoes spotted, new land forming and the seismic unrest picking up, I'll give it 2017 a higher chance of geological unrest. Also giving the jet stream a better chance of being a wandering mess..getting stuck in spots with persistent ridging and it's effects of extreme drought in some areas and flooding in others being more likely.


Aqua~ I'll give you a chance for a freeze this winter with best chance in February, though not ruling out a January freeze for you completely or even tonight! It's looking so close for tomorrow morning you may want to pick those tomatoes..

NASA's GEOS-5 showing January overall still alot of warmth, especially around the Hudson Bay and northern latitudes. February and spring overall looks warm, not as anomalously warm as January but still warmer than usual.
January..


Precipitation wise for January the west coast should continue to see some rain (more north better chance)... The Southeast and Florida maybe in for a very dry month. Globally Philippines to North Australia to the Indian Ocean should be the wettest area with the most Typhoons.

Globally in the spring, Arctic may become a little less extreme but Antarctica looks to continue in the moderate warmth with excessive melting for their fall.. ENSO looks neutral. ..this tends to error a little warmer for ENSO so overall I'll lean La Nina to neutral for spring.

Quoting 47. MontanaZephyr:

I am pretty well convinced that a campaign against climate science is about to go into high gear, and that you all are about to take much heavier hits than you are expecting.

Very much agree with this too...

Dry here in OK as well, with the wind - not a good combo today.



ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 301602

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...Portions of the southern/central Plains...
A critical area is introduced from western Oklahoma
east/northeastward to southwestern Missouri. The 12Z AMA/OUN
soundings sampled a very dry air mass, characterized by
precipitable-water values under 0.2 inches. As deeper mixing ensues
today, RH values across much of the critical area should fall below
20 percent. Moreover, downward momentum transport of a vigorous
southwesterly low-level jet will create windy conditions across the
region. Sustained southwesterly winds around 20-30 mph /with higher
gusts/ will continue to develop through this afternoon. In
combination with dry fine fuels, these meteorological conditions
should be sufficient for critical concerns across the highlighted
area. Additionally, the surrounding elevated area is expanded
northward into northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, eastward into
northwestern Arkansas, and westward into the TX/OK panhandles. In
these locations, breezy conditions and RH values below 25-30 percent
will enhance the threat of rapid fire spread.

...Portions of the Florida peninsula...
The ongoing elevated area is expanded to include portions of the
east coast of the FL peninsula, where sustained winds around 10-15
mph will combine with RH values below 25-30 percent to produce
elevated/locally critical fire-weather concerns. Similar
meteorological conditions can be expected across the remainder of
the elevated area.

..Picca.. 12/30/2016
Some early rainfall totals from the first of 2 storms this weekend.

Link








Another round of weekend storms are in store as we close out 2016 and welcome 2017 over the New Year’s weekend. The first storm moving through the region today, with passing rain showers. Another system will follow quickly, bringing more widespread precipitation by Saturday afternoon. Any outdoor New Year’s Eve celebrations will see some accompanying rain drops and puddles. Snow will fall down to 4,000 feet late Saturday evening creating hazardous travel conditions.

Quoting 57. nymore:



Yes it is amazing. The picture will get less and less noticeable as the gas flares are hooked up to pipeline gathering systems.

On the weather front expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow today then maybe up to 8 or 10 on Monday going into Tuesday. I am sick of plowing snow and it has only begun.


Do you know what is the time frame to have all of these flares bypassed to the pipelines? I would really like to see that happen sooner rather than later. I would much prefer that it all remains in the ground, but if you are going to bring it to the surface then it should never be flared off into the atmosphere before any work can be had from it. What a waste, and on so many levels.
Quoting 71. CybrTeddy:



Love it! Back in the days of film. I was too young to photograph Hale-Bopp. The late 90s were absolutely incredible years for comets. Comet Hyakutake in 1996, and then Comet Hale-Bopp in 1997. We haven't seen a good comet like those two in years. At least we know that in 2061 there'll be one great comet.


Hope 2061 is a good show! Comet Halley had a poor showing in 1986.
I could live like this.
Quoting 47. MontanaZephyr:

I keep running into obvious PR pieces like this:

Skeptical Climate Scientists Coming In From the Cold



Well, nothing new for the author of the piece you linked too. Just a continuation of his long-standing POV.

Global warming alarmism takes a hit: James Varney/links

James Varney, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune By James Varney, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune

Most of the rain is past here. It has stopped for now. it is Joe-Time
Quoting 82. nrtiwlnvragn:

Did Rick Scott move to Wisconsin?


Wisconsin’s Department of Natural Resources is now pretending not to know about climate change.


No they have their own piece of work as a Governor(sic).
Media Matters for America: 'The 15 Most Ridiculous Things That Media Figures Said About Environmental Issues In 2016'

Donald Trump and the presidential election dominated news coverage in 2016. But talking heads still found plenty of time to make jaw-dropping comments about climate change, energy, and the environment. This year’s list of ridiculous claims includes a dangerous conspiracy theory about Hurricane Matthew, over-the-top worship of fracking and coal, and absurd victim-blaming around the Flint water crisis. Here is our list of the 15 most ridiculous things that media figures said about climate, energy, and environmental issues in 2016.
Quoting 8. WatermansDaughter:



Thanks for keeping us updated on the weather down there, SFcat5. I feel your pain. we flew out of balmy Bonita Springs yesterday, back home to a frigid Philly night. I am not adjusting. :-[


Should only be two "cold" (people up north are laughing) nights and then we're back to temperatures in the 80s again.
This could truly be the year without a Winter if this weather pattern continues.
"2017 is unlikely to continue the string of global record highs set in 2014, 2015, and (virtually certainly) 2016."

I woldn't be surprised if it does - given that "carbon dioxide concentrations will continue their relentless upward march", and many other well-known mechanisms like Methane release are taking off in a non-linear "quantum leaps" (referring to my earliest postings on here).
Quote Vis0: As to nino-nina i think its more that this planet uses the ENSO area as one of several built in exhaust methods.
On top of that, we will have to watch the onset of not one but two Heinrich events, i.e. the collapse of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet.

Not much to look forward to in 2017.
Rather be scared.


Quoting 85. Sfloridacat5:



Should only be two "cold" (people up north are laughing) nights and then we're back to temperatures in the 80s again.
This cold truly be the year without a Winter if this weather pattern continues.



Yes we are. Even in OK, your "lows" are higher than our average highs, or the sightly above average we are experiencing now.
The crayon north of Madagascar went orange.


Quoting 81. PedleyCA:


Most of the rain is past here. It has stopped for now. it is Joe-Time


LOL

It has rained for about 1 1/2-2 hours and still raining lightly.....we should be on the backside of that band coming through now soon. Have not talked with my local weather station guy but from a site a few miles from me, .21 has fallen. I usually get more than Oak Grove, but will post local later.

Weather Conditions For:
OAK GROVE, CA. OGVC1 (RAWS)
Elev: 2781 ft.; Lat/Lon: 33.385967/-116.796836
Current Time: Dec 30 11:26 am PST





30 Dec 11:09 am 49 45 86 SE 7G14 49 17 144 20% 8.11 0.14 0.21 0.21 0.21
30 Dec 10:09 am 47 39 75 WNW 1G14 45 12 33 5% 7.97 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
20,000 Fish Wash Ashore Dead in Canada

Up to 20,000 fish and other sea creatures have washed ashore dead in Western Nova Scotia, in Canada. The exact cause of the mass deaths off the coast of one of Maritime provinces in eastern Canada, is so far confounding officials, and concerning observers.

Canadian authorities say as many as 20,000 fish, lobsters, starfish, scallops, crabs and other animals have washed ashore dead at Savary Provincial Park. The number of species involved has gradually expanded as more creatures have washed ashore. None of the dead fish and sea creatures are safe to eat, authorities said.


Link
From ThinkProgress:

Climate deniers have received $80,453,861 from dirty energy companies

[...]

Climate deniers have received $80,453,861 from dirty energy companies in the coal, oil, and gas industries, according to CAPAF’s research. That is a huge jump from the over $63 million deniers received as of the beginning of 2015. A quarter of that ten million dollar increase comes from the new names on the list, while the rest comes from increased fundraising totals from known deniers. In general, the average career dirty energy contribution per Senate denier was $962,033, compared to $226,834 for those who had not publicly revealed themselves to be deniers. The average House contribution was $304,837 per denier, and $103,305 for non-deniers. In total, House deniers pulled in $43,896,594 in dirty energy money, while deniers in the Senate pulled in $36,557,267.

[...]



[...]

Update
This post has been updated to reflect FEC contribution data released on August 22, 2016.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 67. Xyrus2000:



Push in between them and scream about it all being a liberal conspiracy, eruptions have happened before, and there's nothing we can do about it anyway. :P

I don't recall asking what Pensacoladoug would do.
Storm # 2 for this weekend per 1200z GFS

Cutoff ULL closing off by Central California coast at 30 hours out



And then dives into Soo Cal at hours 36-48







Storm # 2 forecast to be more substantial then # 1................I hope so! Don't wanna seem greedy but we need to grab the precip when it avails itself to Soo Cal.




After we had two nice mid to upper 70's days we are now forecast for this pitiful weather.
Google is going to smear time tomorrow and save the web.
Wrong link sorry
Quoting 95. PedleyCA:


After we had two nice mid to upper 70's days we are now forecast for this pitiful weather.


Im gonna make me a big pot of chili.......it's gonna be real chilly up my way! Highs in 40's and Lows in 30's

Record low tides for the second year in a row seen in the city of Venice. Instead of water, tourists are being confronted with mud throughout the city.
State of emergency in Ramea, without fresh running water for 2 weeks
CBC News Canada - Last Updated: Dec 30, 2016 3:10 PM NT.
Water system for south coast town infiltrated with salt water during recent storm surge.
(...) They are worried about future incidents with storm surges happening more frequently.

From the article, 2 weeks ago (southern coast of Newfoundland - map link):

Current SSTA (still image), most recent two months SSTA - full disk (NOAA animation link):

(See
also figure 3 above)
If you take the last number of the year you were born, and every year after that ends in that number, your age will always end in a zero.
Quoting 80. daddyjames:



Well, nothing new for the author of the piece you linked too. Just a continuation of his long-standing POV.

Global warming alarmism takes a hit: James Varney/links

James Varney, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune By James Varney, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune


The comments section there only reveals that there are still too many people that would wish to treat their self induced ignorance as if it is also their greatest virtue. How has humanity made it this far without destroying itself?
You guys all live on the wrong half of the world - we have 75-80F for the next few days, no rain, no clouds, nice breeze, cooking surf; life looks good in Africa!
CapeTownRocks


Quoting 52. Patrap:

My favs are all Europe.Soviet Bloc still

Plovdiv, BU
32 Overcast

Veliko Tarnovo, BU
27.3 °F Overcast

Moscow, RS
31.5 °F Overcast

Warsaw, PL
33.8 °F Clear

Prague, CZ
27 °F Patches of Fog

London, UK
37 °F Fog



Quoting 101. Grothar:

If you take the last number of the year you were born, and every year after that ends in that number, your age will always end in a zero.


I got an email telling me that won't happen again until the year 2026. :)
Quoting 101. Grothar:

If you take the last number of the year you were born, and every year after that ends in that number, your age will always end in a zero.


I do not know which year I was born. My parents told me that they found me under a turnip leaf. Nope. Nope. Scratch that. They said that I had just fallen off of a turnip truck. They did not say what year model the turnip truck was.
Quoting 102. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The comments section there only reveals that there are still too many people that would wish to treat their self induced ignorance as if it is also their greatest virtue. How has humanity made it this far without destroying itself?
That is a very good question -imo
Quoting 77. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you know what is the time frame to have all of these flares bypassed to the pipelines? I would really like to see that happen sooner rather than later. I would much prefer that it all remains in the ground, but if you are going to bring it to the surface then it should never be flared off into the atmosphere before any work can be had from it. What a waste, and on so many levels.


They have to pay royalties and taxes on any flared gas after one year. At its height over 30% of gas was flared now it is down to under 10% and falling as infrastructure catches up.

There is always a small flare burning on the oil pad and usually two flare stacks for safety.
Record low tide dries Venice's famous canals
The exceptionally water levels have been caused by abnormal tides this year, combined with drastically reduced winter precipitation rates across northeastern Italy, La Nuova Venezia reported.

Link
Quoting 107. nymore:



They have to pay royalties and taxes on any flared gas after one year. At its height over 30% of gas was flared now it is down to under 10% and falling as infrastructure catches up.

There is always a small flare burning on the oil pad and usually two flare stacks for safety.


Are you saying/suggesting that any new wells that are brought in will not be seriously considered for the first year to be tapped into the pipeline? Realistically, are the taxes and fines high enough on the flares for the well owners to want to push for the shortest time period to tap these wells into the pipeline? I am curious about this. Any well that is not flared is in our favor, but is the time allowed for flaring wells truly in our favor, on any level?
Fish Seek Cooler Waters, Leaving Some Fishermen’s Nets Empty

Studies have found that two-thirds of marine species in the Northeast United States have shifted or extended their range as a result of ocean warming, migrating northward or outward into deeper and cooler water.

Lobster, once a staple in southern New England, have decamped to Maine. Black sea bass, scup, yellowtail flounder, mackerel, herring and monkfish, to name just a few species, have all moved to accommodate changing temperatures.

Link
Quoting 110. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Are you saying/suggesting that any new wells that are brought in will not be seriously considered for the first year to be tapped into the pipeline? Realistically, are the taxes and fines high enough on the flares for the well owners to want to push for the shortest time period to tap these wells into the pipeline? I am curious about this. Any well that is not flared is in our favor, but is the time allowed for flaring wells truly in our favor, on any level?


Once a well's first year of production ends, operators must cap the well, connect it to a natural gas gathering line, equip the well with an electrical generator that consumes at least 75% of the natural gas from the well, or find another approved approach that reduces flaring. If it is feasible they will hook them up earlier but remember the construction season is 8 or 9 months tops unless you want to pay winter rates which are very high.

The crude in the formation has a high wet gas content as compared to places like Texas. A person who works for Oneok told us one time that Texas crude has 4% wet gas while North Dakota crude has over 10% wet gas.
Quoting 83. PedleyCA:



No they have their own piece of work as a Governor(sic).


Yes. Scott Walker. His solution to plug a budget hole to fix our roads (some of the worst in the nation) was to raise the speed limits so we'd burn more gas to increase gas tax revenues. Revenues did not go up. And I hate to beat a drum thats hit too often but instead of using taxes to solve the problem, trickle down economics was the solution - The wealthiest 10 Wisconsinites were all given extreme tax breaks as if they needed them or something. So far they have not re-invested the money into creating more jobs. They decided to use it to make their piles of money heavier.
Quoting 112. nymore:



Once a well's first year of production ends, operators must cap the well, connect it to a natural gas gathering line, equip the well with an electrical generator that consumes at least 75% of the natural gas from the well, or find another approved approach that reduces flaring. If it is feasible they will hook them up earlier but remember the construction season is 8 or 9 months tops unless you want to pay winter rates which are very high.

The crude in the formation has a high wet gas content as compared to places like Texas. A person who works for Oneok told us one time that Texas crude has 4% wet gas while North Dakota crude has over 10% wet gas.


Thank you, nymore. I learned a lot from our conversation. I was not aware of what the actual procedures were on this.
Marine species, Dr. Manderson said, are moving north at 10 times the rate of animals on land.

“Our ideas of property rights and laws are purely land-based,” he said. “But the ocean is all about flux and turbulence and movement.”

He added, “Even the science is too slow.”


Fish Seek Cooler Waters, Leaving Some Fishermen’s Nets Empty



Potentially another Significant El-Nino gearing up models show sea surface temps across the equatorial Pacific changing come February to eventually this in September.

WOW!!

By the looks of this SOI this El-Nino could be another big one! Also the PDO has really increased over the last several weeks and likely December will reach 2.0.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 30 Dec 2016 Average for last 30 days -21.67
Average for last 90 days -8.70
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 2.59


Currently a huge WWB across Nino 4 has dramatically increased sea surface anomalies and this is what is projected to get El-Nino going over the next couple of months.

Here comes El-Nino!!

At this point, La Nina has been giving us an actual wet season for the first time in 6 years, and I am loathe to see it replaced by something like last year's El Dud-o. But whatever makes it rain is fine by me.
Climate change and the Great Lakes

The latest vandalism from the Dork Side is censoring the concept of “climate change” from a Wisconsin governmental website


Link

It was there all time, right under our noses. ................ the Dork Side .................. Beautiful.
Quoting 59. elioe:

My response to astronomical phenomena is pretty lazy. Woke up on March 20, 2015, approximately at midday, and went to balcony, since the sun was shining. I thought it would be warm and I could easily sunbathe. For a time I wondered why it was cold despite the sunlight, which seemed unusually dim. Then I remembered the eclipse, cursed the Moon for interfering with my plans, and went back inside.

And regarding what to watch for in 2017. Most of all, I'm waiting to see, if North Pole becomes ice-free.

So...it's either very warm in southern Finland in March, or elioe is a lot hardier than I am!
Quoting 102. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The comments section there only reveals that there are still too many people that would wish to treat their self induced ignorance as if it is also their greatest virtue. How has humanity made it this far without destroying itself?

Be patient it's coming, you might even live to see it. Exciting isn't it. Sigh
Hope everyone has a Happy & Prosperous New Year! Hit 42 in S C IL today as winds died down from red flag levels yesterday. Not looking good for Winter Classic Monday as StL current forecast mid to upper 50s w/ very good rain chances. Hopefully will stop in p.m. so maybe later start, just hope view of the Arch isn't obstructed by clouds or fog. Of course cools off starting Wed, and really not bad NYE or NYD, but... At least it's not supposed to flood like last year's NYE.

Gro, mine (& that other Pat's) were already easy to figure since we were born in 0 ending year :) (My lovely wife's too, as today she catches up to me, numerically, in age.)
Quoting 112. nymore:



Once a well's first year of production ends, operators must cap the well, connect it to a natural gas gathering line, equip the well with an electrical generator that consumes at least 75% of the natural gas from the well, or find another approved approach that reduces flaring. If it is feasible they will hook them up earlier but remember the construction season is 8 or 9 months tops unless you want to pay winter rates which are very high.

The crude in the formation has a high wet gas content as compared to places like Texas. A person who works for Oneok told us one time that Texas crude has 4% wet gas while North Dakota crude has over 10% wet gas.

Would you mind expounding a bit on the wet gas content? Specifically, does that matter in terms of flaring?
Quoting 122. washingaway:


Be patient it's coming, you might even live to see it. Exciting isn't it. Sigh


Molly Hatchet ........... Flirtin' With Disaster

From The Washington Post:

With enough evidence, even skepticism will thaw

As one of Greenland’s largest ice shelves shrinks, a once-doubtful scientist has come around to the role of climate change in melting it.

Put on your headphones (This story has audio)

Petermann Ice Shelf, GREENLAND

Half a decade before he took this trip to the farthest reaches of the north, Andreas Muenchow had his doubts about whether warming temperatures were causing one of the world’s great platforms of ice to melt and fall apart.

He even stood before Congress in 2010 and balked on whether climate change might have caused a mammoth chunk of ice, four times the size of Manhattan, to break off from this floating, 300-square-mile shelf. The University of Delaware oceanographer said he wasn’t sure. He needed more evidence.

But then the Petermann Ice Shelf lost another two Manhattans of ice in 2012, and Muenchow decided to see for himself, launching a project to study the ice shelf intensively.

He was back again in late August, no longer a skeptic. It was hard not to be a believer here at 81 degrees north latitude, where Greenland and Canada very nearly touch. The surface of the bumpy and misshapen ice was covered with pools and puddles, in some cases frozen over but with piercing blue water beneath. Streams carved through the vast shelf, swelling into larger ponds or even small lakes.

The meltwater was a sign the ice shelf was growing more fragile, moving closer to the day when it might give up more city-size chunks of ice.

The Petermann Ice Shelf serves as a plug of sorts to one of Greenland’s largest glaciers, lodged in a fjord that, from the height of its mountain walls down to the lowest point of the seafloor, is deeper than the Grand Canyon. There’s enough ice piled up behind Petermann to raise oceans globally by nearly a foot someday.

The question for Muenchow is no longer whether Petermann is changing — it’s how fast it could give up still more ice to the seas. That’s why he and British Antarctic Survey colleague Keith Nicholls ventured here by helicopter to take the measure of the Petermann shelf, which had been shifting and surging in a way that damaged the scientific instruments they had left behind a year earlier — behaving as though it didn’t want to be known.

Read more >>


(Click for larger image)
Quoting 20. aquak9:

If anyone is willing to go out on a limb - -

(cause I know how ya'll feel about those 384 hour forecasts)

can someone give me a guesstimate of temps here in NE Fla ( Jacksonville) say... Jan-Feb?

Does anyone see any crazy hard freezes coming? Climate is where I live, but weather -

weather is what I eat.

from earlier...anyone please?
the el nino seems stronger cent. pac. doubt that will hinder atlantic cyclone
Has the WU membership list been taken over by Bulgarians? Whenever I connect to your site, my favorites list is immediately changed to:
Sofia, BU; Plovdiv, BU; Veliko Tarnovo, BU; Moscow, RS, Warsaw, Pl; Prague, CZ; Ufa, RS; Kiev, UR, etc.

Are others seeing the same issue?
Quoting 127. aquak9:


from earlier...anyone please?

Slightly warmer than normal so I will go with average highs around 67 to 70 for January and add two or three degrees for February
Quoting 129. kboxweatherbug:

Has the WU membership list been taken over by Bulgarians? Whenever I connect to your site, my favorites list is immediately changed to:
Sofia, BU; Plovdiv, BU; Veliko Tarnovo, BU; Moscow, RS, Warsaw, Pl; Prague, CZ; Ufa, RS; Kiev, UR, etc.

Are others seeing the same issue?

You been away for awhile. To your question: Everybody
Quoting 129. kboxweatherbug:

Has the WU membership list been taken over by Bulgarians? Whenever I connect to your site, my favorites list is immediately changed to:
Sofia, BU; Plovdiv, BU; Veliko Tarnovo, BU; Moscow, RS, Warsaw, Pl; Prague, CZ; Ufa, RS; Kiev, UR, etc.

Are others seeing the same issue?

Have you been "rainbowed" yet? Anyway, enjoy the world tour.
Quoting 124. LAbonbon:


Would you mind expounding a bit on the wet gas content? Specifically, does that matter in terms of flaring?


The more gas infused into/with (some gas will be in liquid form) the oil the larger the flares will be. I have seen flares out there that you could hear a half-mile away like a jet engine. Although each pad is different, I have seen huge flares in one area and small flares just down the road, they seem to be biggest just after fracturing and before production begins but this not always the case.
Quoting 125. RobertWC:



Molly Hatchet ........... Flirtin' With Disaster



I haven't heard that song in years. Most appropriate.
Quoting 124. LAbonbon:


Would you mind expounding a bit on the wet gas content? Specifically, does that matter in terms of flaring?


Liquid fossil fuels are spectrum of things , each deposit has it's own set of components. Going toward the lighter fuels one sees propane , butane, ethylene , etc. These make methane "wet". As they move up the well bore , and pressure is decreased, they phase change from a liquid to a gas.
In Kern County , Calf. , and in Venezuela, the stuff is closer to tar, and asphalt. Very little of this, has gas in it any more
Another thing in the mix is how "sweet' it is. That it's sulphur content. I worked in the big gas fields in Northeast Utah, they built a sulphur extraction plant at Evenston, Wy. to remove the H2S from the gas. They haul it by train car loads out of there.
So when they flare gas, they're burning a whole soup of compounds beyond just C4.

I agree with you a great little discussion .

By the way, some of the Overthrust Belt gas deposits went to 24,000 feet, and they would hit 5 or 6 pay zones going down off the same formation. Some of the most twisted rock on Earth is Northeast Utah. And it is hot sour rock, when they first started drilling it was dissolving the drill string, it ate their bits. This was in the late 70's, all modern drilling has it's roots there.

My grill , and my drill , I made lunch on the manifold. I'm the one with classical pose.

Quoting 50. Patrap:

I remember that comet joe.

I used my CANON AE-1 on the Scopes tripod and mount..and did 30 sec exposures with KODAK ASA 1000 Royal Gold film, chilled with CO2.

Mosquitoes were really bad, but the moonless night and water under I-55 made for some great shots.


Always neat to look back at those early wunderblog entries here.

Hale-Bopp 10 years later
By: Patrap , 5:55 AM CDT on March 28, 2007








Fabulous photos!

That was the camera I had at the time too, but I didn't get any photos at all of it. I was living in Chicago, in Humbolt Park at the time and was amazed that it was so visible even with all the city lights!
Quoting 134. washingaway:


I haven't heard that song in years. Most appropriate.


It was a big part of my life see the link I just posted. Hauling a$$ up to Echo Junction on snow packed roads.
nymoore
Quoting 130. nymore:

Slightly warmer than normal so I will go with average highs around 67 to 70 for January and add two or three degrees for February
Thank you very much. I tried an experiment; I tried planting tomato seeds in late September. And now?

Now I have easily 20-40lbs of green tomatoes, the plants are heavily laden. Tomatoes like I've never grown before. Like crazy. And I worry, should I get my hopes up that they might ripen? Will we get a killing freeze in the next six weeks? Or will I end up with a laundry-basket full of ripe tomatoes in another few weeks? I am coastal; that's a good thing- but we still get killing freezes here in Jacksonville on occasion.
Quoting 137. RobertWC:



It was a big part of my life see the link I just posted. Hauling a$$ up to Echo Junction on snow packed roads.

I'm currently on an original iPad that no longer supports the YouTube app. So all links to youtube automatically go to the app that doesn't work. Can you post the URL and I'll copy and paste it
I read this, and thought of a family in Poland in the late 30's .................

Why NASA officials refuse to panic ahead of Trump transition
Fears over the incoming Trump administration's plans to cut NASA's earth science programs are based on rumor and 'noise,' says the agency's top science official.

Link
China appears to be becoming a responsible global nation as it makes it path into the modern world.

China Bans Its Ivory Trade, Moving Against Elephant Poaching.
Quoting 138. aquak9:

nymooreThank you very much. I tried an experiment; I tried planting tomato seeds in late September. And now?

Now I have easily 20-40lbs of green tomatoes, the plants are heavily laden. Tomatoes like I've never grown before. Like crazy. And I worry, should I get my hopes up that they might ripen? Will we get a killing freeze in the next six weeks? Or will I end up with a laundry-basket full of ripe tomatoes in another few weeks? I am coastal; that's a good thing- but we still get killing freezes here in Jacksonville on occasion.



Hope you do well. I used to live on the intercoastal north of a1a off of blackrock rd, 96109 Cedar ave Yulee fl. to be exact. I remember decent frost just a mile or so inland and the least little bit in the yard at times.
I also used to live on Amelia Island for awhile on the intercoastal also, used to love the tide change 6 feet or better everyday. The Dolphins two feet away while on the floating dock, shrimping and crabbing right off the dock and the fishing wonderful.
Quoting 139. washingaway:


I'm currently on an original iPad that no longer supports the YouTube app. So all links to youtube automatically go to the app that doesn't work. Can you post the URL and I'll copy and paste it


Life's a funny ole' dog , I'm a Mac. man , on a old virus infested HP desk top, here you go the whole page -



Tuesday, October 31, 2006
How I Became A " Flying Squirrel "


It's a pretty good click.
With .22 rainfall thus far from current storm, it looks another band of rain offshore right now is inbound to Soo Cal as it looks like the ULL is slowly moving E/ESE away from Pt Conception. And then Storm # 2 Sat afternoon and evening with even better chance for higher rainfall totals.

Quoting 119. TimSoCal:

At this point, La Nina has been giving us an actual wet season for the first time in 6 years, and I am loathe to see it replaced by something like last year's El Dud-o. But whatever makes it rain is fine by me.


You and me both Tim : )
Quoting 47. MontanaZephyr:

I keep running into obvious PR pieces like this:

Skeptical Climate Scientists Coming In From the Cold


I am pretty well convinced that a campaign against climate science is about to go into high gear, and that you all are about to take much heavier hits than you are expecting.

I don't say that to instill fear, but to instill fight. If you don't pull yourselves together fast, Climate Science will get totaled. Here are some of the things that you can do.

Identify all the species of fake news, their methods, levels of sophistication, and the operators behind them, and how to counter-act them.

Immediately put together a crack volunteer team of CS grad students to debunk the debunkers. The method for this is to have a site where fake science can be reported. Then anyone, or group from that team can address directly why the piece is fake news, post it, and send copies to all the major newspapers and whatever other outlets are out there. This will keep before the public eye that there is a fake news campaign against climate science (not to mention science in general, but for now this group should maybe keep its focus.

Immediately install in climate science grad programs courses on public relations, lobbying, and corporate strategies, and how to deal with all those dynamics both as individuals and as groups.

Enlist Anonymous.

There are certainly other things you can do, but you had better get on it fast. If you think climate change is happening fast, it may very well not hold a candle to the impending speed of climate science change.

Climate science will be fine. After all:



The incoming administration may cut back on funding for climate science (and science in general I'm afraid) to the detriment of the "greatness" of US science leadership but they can't change reality. As time goes on it becomes harder and harder to deny that reality. As with many big political issues we will sooner or later reach a tipping point where it is no longer politically viable to deny the reality.

So, I'm tentatively optimistic. The amazing drop in the price of wind and solar PV has reached the point where they are competitive with traditional energy sources and affordable batteries will push it over the edge so market forces can take over. Then it's just a matter of fast we can build it out. Lots of smart people (like Elon Musk) are working on the technologies to replace fossil fuels and it's only going to get better as time goes on.

What's saddest is that the USA could have been the world leader in renewable energy (and in the basic science maybe we still are) but our politics have allowed that title to go to others. Already solar PV installation employs many more people than coal mining in this country. It's a growth industry that still has a lot of room for growth.

I guess in my dotage I've seen a lot and heard a lot of dire predictions that never came to pass so I avoid getting overwrought about things like that. No doubt the incoming administration will put a dent in the US leadership in science but they can't destroy it. I look at it as more of a speed bump and 4 years from now the signals that AGW is giving us will just be that much stronger.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
113 PM PST Fri Dec 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure area will continue a threat of showers through
tonight. A stronger system from the north will increase the
shower threat again on Saturday, becoming heavy with isolated
thunderstorms possible Saturday night. Snow will fall in the
mountains and may be heavy at times with travel impacts expected.
Occasional clouds and cool conditions will persist through early
next week, along with a chance for light showers at times as a
moist, onshore flow persists

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Radar indicates the main area of rain had moved east of the CWA at
midday. More scattered showers had developed offshore, closer to
the low pressure center near Pt, Conception. Rainfall of from one-
tenth to one-third of an inch has been reported in many areas
today,except the deserts. See our website, or the latest LAXRRMSGX
product for specifics.

The upper-low will weaken and drift east of the area overnight,
leaving behind a deep enough moist layer for some scattered light
showers to redevelop into Sat morning. Otherwise, all eyes turn to
the north where a compact low is forecast to develop near Eureka
and parallel the Coast south, just offshore, reaching the CA Bight
Sat night. This trajectory puts SW CA in a perfect area of lift
with the jet and cold air aloft for widespread moderate to locally
heavy showers. A few thunderstorms are likely as well.

The Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning due to snowfall amounts of over 8 inches in 12 hours on a
Holiday when many will be out and about. Travel conditions in the
mountains will become hazardous. The main highway passes may be
affected as well as the snow-level lowers to between 3500 and 4000
FT late Saturday night.

The low will exit the area early Sunday, however broad troughing
will persist over the West, resulting in a moist, onshore flow
pattern across SoCal. In this pattern, the chance for scattered,
light precipitation will persist into the New Year along with below
average temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Occasional light rain tonight into Saturday. Then, showers becoming
more numerous late in the day over San Bernardino and Orange
Counties, spreading south across the entire area Sat evening with
isolated thunderstorms possible.

Twenty-four precip amounts through 12Z Sunday are currently forecast
be: 0.6 to 1.2 inch in the mountains...0.25-0.50 inch elsewhere.
Most of the precip will fall in any given area within a 6 hour period
centered around Saturday evening. With the instability and lift
expected with the low, rainfall rates could briefly reach 0.25-0.5
inch per hour which could mean local ponding of water in poorly
drained urban areas. Also, normally dry washes will be flowing,
although no river flooding is expected.

For snowfall: Expect mostly light snow through about sunset on
Saturday, then picking up with heavy snowfall rates above 5500 FT in
deep convective showers into late night. Snowfall could range from
around an inch or two below 5000 FT to near one foot on the highest
peaks of the Riverside and San Bernardino County mts. the higher
peaks in San diego County could see around one-half foot as well.
Please see LAXWSWSGX for details.
146. riverat544
12:07 AM GMT on December 31, 2016
2 +
Quoting 47. MontanaZephyr:

I keep running into obvious PR pieces like this:

Skeptical Climate Scientists Coming In From the Cold


I am pretty well convinced that a campaign against climate science is about to go into high gear, and that you all are about to take much heavier hits than you are expecting.


Pretzel Logic ..................

"Those days are gone forever, over a long time ago".
Quoting 113. Snacker2:



Yes. Scott Walker. His solution to plug a budget hole to fix our roads (some of the worst in the nation) was to raise the speed limits so we'd burn more gas to increase gas tax revenues. Revenues did not go up. And I hate to beat a drum thats hit too often but instead of using taxes to solve the problem, trickle down economics was the solution - The wealthiest 10 Wisconsinites were all given extreme tax breaks as if they needed them or something. So far they have not re-invested the money into creating more jobs. They decided to use it to make their piles of money heavier.


Source this. Please.
I'm 57 today. 16 days older than Patrap, although I think I look younger, but don't tell him I said that. Anyway, I'm taking my kids to the BMX track and watch them smile for awhile. That is of course if they don't break a bone.
Quoting 127. aquak9:


from earlier...anyone please?

Had something in #72 on this... As for tonight there maybe a freeze warning for proper Jax..You most likely will get spared by being so close to the ocean.

Picked a bunch of ripe and ripening tomatoes in Melbourne today.
nymore & RobertWC - thanks for all the info. Learned quite a bit today :)

washingaway - Happy Birthday! May you get whatever rainbow pony you wished for :D
257 Earthquakes Over Magnitude 5 In 9 Days- What Are We Not Being Told About This Energy Influx
Quoting 151. Skyepony:


Had something in #72 on this... As for tonight there maybe a freeze warning for proper Jax..You most likely will get spared by being so close to the ocean.

Picked a bunch of ripe and ripening tomatoes in Melbourne today.

When I was a very young child in Ohio, I remember my Mom would wrap green tomatoes in newspaper and put them in the basement to slowly ripen to extend the fresh veggie season. I do not remember what they tasted like, but cannot be worse then so many of the tasteless store bought ones now.
A note to everybody, cutting and pasting the entire NWS forecasts for your hometown slows down the site . Please change your ways. Give me the headlines and a link. If I what to read about Bozo . Neb. for the next 38 hours give a link.

This cutting and pasting of long blocks of text needs to stop.

A . No one reads it.
B. Most of it means zip
C. It's boring
D. It grids the site to a state of mud

Same thing with images in a reply, Edit them out , I don't need to see them over , and over again .

I say this because this greatest richest comment thread on the Planet. If we just did this , it would load so much better.
But hey, I await my first long text NWS report from Bozo . Neb.

Band just went through here.... Wet street is about it, now up to .09
fwiw, I read many of the NWS forecasts people post. They're usually posted for a specific reason. What I don't like is when people edit them so severely that what gets posted is a bit useless.

(Especially you guys west of me - been 'absorbing' those)
Quoting 129. kboxweatherbug:

Has the WU membership list been taken over by Bulgarians? Whenever I connect to your site, my favorites list is immediately changed to:
Sofia, BU; Plovdiv, BU; Veliko Tarnovo, BU; Moscow, RS, Warsaw, Pl; Prague, CZ; Ufa, RS; Kiev, UR, etc.

Are others seeing the same issue?

I deleted them one by one to get rid of them. Alas, I no longer know the weather in Sofia...
Really folks, get a blue pencil , edit these comments . Come on it takes 30 seconds . To be short and to the point.

It's like a crackhouse of comments . I can so I will.

I'm not talkin' about ones thoughts, just mindless cut and paste.

Please . it's such a drag.
Quoting 126. Xandra:

From The Washington Post:

With enough evidence, even skepticism will thaw

Uh, wow. This is phenomenal. And to think I almost didn't click the link. Fantastic story, reporting, video, graphics....you name it. At first I didn't realize there was anything beyond the initial video, then when I scrolled to look for a date, I saw the true 'mother lode' this piece is. And it's presented so anyone can grasp it.

This is a keeper, to be viewed again, bookmarked, and shared. Thanks so much for posting this. Truly one of the best links I've seen on here.
Quoting 157. PedleyCA:


Band just went through here.... Wet street is about it, now up to .09


Just started raining good at my place and still a lot offshore........ .22 so far
165. bwi
Long range forecast hints another bombing snow storm for Maine.
To the mods ..............
These long blocks of text are meaningless . Do you read every word ?

I don't , why they matter to the rest of us is a serious question. But day after day we get these huge blocks of text.

No one gives a rats fuzzy fanny about the weather in Bozo, Neb. So we don't need the next detailed forecast for 48 hours.

Give me the headlines and the link , I don't need the entire copy here I scroll right past it.

Can I have a vote?
171. beell
.
#171 - see, without this we non-Texans wouldn't know that Houston had sleet, and why, or that the Euro and the GFS are at odds again, so Houston may, or may not, get more wintry weather...or that severe weather (tornadoes, etc.) may be in the offing...


Cold air will return to much of the country by the end of next week.
175. MahFL
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:

Here comes El-Nino!!




More likely a warm neutral.
Quoting 138. aquak9:

nymooreThank you very much. I tried an experiment; I tried planting tomato seeds in late September. And now?

Now I have easily 20-40lbs of green tomatoes, the plants are heavily laden. Tomatoes like I've never grown before. Like crazy. And I worry, should I get my hopes up that they might ripen? Will we get a killing freeze in the next six weeks? Or will I end up with a laundry-basket full of ripe tomatoes in another few weeks? I am coastal; that's a good thing- but we still get killing freezes here in Jacksonville on occasion.


Sounds lovely! I dabbled in tomatoes awhile back - drag the container out of the garage during the day, drag it back in at night. Way too much trouble. I did head into the backyard earlier this evening, and scraped a few inches of snow off the spearmint leaves so I could enjoy a fresh Mojito. My curley parsley somehow seems to make it under the snow as well; both reduced to a diminished stature, of course!
Quoting 174. hotroddan:



Cold air will return to much of the country by the end of next week.
It's coming to the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. High Sunday forecast to be 36 with snow showers then Monday through Thursday highs are expected to be just under freezing with overnight lows in the upper teens. That's a longer than normal stretch of that kind of cold than we normally get.

Added: That's for the Willamette Valley west of the Cascade Mountains. East of the Cascades highs will be in the low teens and single digits and lows will get in to negative temperatures (-15 Wednesday night in Bend, OR).
Quoting 41. swflurker:

Are you Dave's daughter? Thanks




No relation. My dad was Walt. He loved the water, and chose Waterman as a handle way back in the days of CB radios.
Quoting 41. swflurker:

Are you Dave's daughter? Thanks




No relation. My dad was Walt. He loved the water, and chose Waterman as a handle way back in the days of CB radios.
Quoting 41. swflurker:

Are you Dave's daughter? Thanks




No relation, but thanks for asking. My dad was Walt. He loved the water, as a diver, swimmer, boater, and fisherman, and chose Waterman as a handle way back in the days of CB radios. He passed his predilections to his progeny. :-P I chose this name as a tribute to him.
They said my area wasn't supposta get below 40º tonite. They even drew a map.

I'm already at 35º, and it's only 0034.

So I guess we now know what happens to my tomatoes.
There seems to be growing model support for a snowstorm around Jan 7th-8th, will have to watch the trends over the next several days.
Quoting 181. aquak9:

They said my area wasn't supposta get below 40º tonite. They even drew a map.

I'm already at 35º, and it's only 0034.

So I guess we now know what happens to my tomatoes.

We actually brought in a couple cherry tomato plants back in September after a fairly hard frost. Stuck them in a dining room window, and the pathetic, leafless green stems managed to keep a couple dozen little tomatoes going to full ripeness. Sweet little 'toes growing on what looked like a Charlie Brown Christmas tree, lol.
Thanks for responding! I live in Naples, just south of Bonita where you said you left from.
A local radio station host had his daughter come in lately.
His name is Dave Waterman.

Quoting 178. WatermansDaughter:



No relation. My dad was Walt. He loved the water, and chose Waterman as a handle way back in the days of CB radios.
Cover with blankets quick!!!

Quoting 181. aquak9:

They said my area wasn't supposta get below 40º tonite. They even drew a map.

I'm already at 35º, and it's only 0034.

So I guess we now know what happens to my tomatoes.


Good morning from the quite cold German plains, and best wishes, WU-folks (including Doc, Bob and staff)!
I'm out for a little while ...
Regarding growing tomatoes in Florida .... I have been growing them in a homemade version of the Earthbox containers. Mine are converted Tupperware storage bins. Easy to control the soil (no nematodes like the native sandy soil here), constant ready supply of water, the soil can breathe, and if I really need to protect them from an occasional cold spell, they can be transported into the garage. The only flaw with that plan is one plant, a Cherokee Purple, is 7 feet tall right now, and has a pretty convoluted cage system strapped to it.

If your tomatoes are in the ground, and you are facing a freeze, you can set up a temporary greenhouse, using PVC pipe and tarps, or clear plastic. The clear may get a bit too hot during the day. Either way, you will probably want to remove the tarping if daytime weather is over 50.

Tomatoes that are close to ripening and going to freeze otherwise ..... pick them, leaving them attached to a piece of stem. Place several of them in brown paper bag together and loosely seal. They emit a chemical gas that helps them ripen, so having them bagged concentrates this. If they really need a boost ripening, place a ripe apple in there, too.

If that ripening fails .... fried green tomatoes!

I hope this helps. Jax is several climate zones north of where I am at, near Clearwater. We are buffered by water on three sides, so we don't get as low in temp as places 30 miles from here. It also means our growing season is a couple months shorter too.
good/ morning weather geeks no problem growing the tomato vines but as soon as they bloom the bloom is gone.. bugs? river rats? ideas?
Quoting 146. riverat544:


Climate science will be fine. After all:



The incoming administration may cut back on funding for climate science (and science in general I'm afraid) to the detriment of the "greatness" of US science leadership but they can't change reality. As time goes on it becomes harder and harder to deny that reality. As with many big political issues we will sooner or later reach a tipping point where it is no longer politically viable to deny the reality.

So, I'm tentatively optimistic. The amazing drop in the price of wind and solar PV has reached the point where they are competitive with traditional energy sources and affordable batteries will push it over the edge so market forces can take over. Then it's just a matter of fast we can build it out. Lots of smart people (like Elon Musk) are working on the technologies to replace fossil fuels and it's only going to get better as time goes on.

What's saddest is that the USA could have been the world leader in renewable energy (and in the basic science maybe we still are) but our politics have allowed that title to go to others. Already solar PV installation employs many more people than coal mining in this country. It's a growth industry that still has a lot of room for growth.

I guess in my dotage I've seen a lot and heard a lot of dire predictions that never came to pass so I avoid getting overwrought about things like that. No doubt the incoming administration will put a dent in the US leadership in science but they can't destroy it. I look at it as more of a speed bump and 4 years from now the signals that AGW is giving us will just be that much stronger.


Not to pick a fight. People rarely argue with the temperature gauge. They argue about what the temperature will be tomorrow and why.
Then when comes to cause - well folks really split ways. There lies both the problem and solution. Problem of folks disagreeing on why. The solution of getting folks to agree on solutions.
As for Neil Degrasse Tyson - science also changes.
From Newton - why do things fall, to Einstein "Gravity does not exist, it is the warping of space-time"
Now, dark energy is fiddling with Einstein's equations.
Re: #191, see post #47

Suggest not quoting denier spam, just flag it.
It only got down to 33.5º last night!!!

The tomatoes are ok!!! so are the string beans, another experiment-

SO HAPPY!!! for anyone who sent warm thoughts in the wee hours of the night, Thankyou!!

Hashtag HAPPY!!
islander- calcium? lack of pollenators? They use to make this spray that helped set tomatoes flowers. Do you have bees and stuff hanging around? I always grow a lotta flowery stuff in the winter to help attract the bees. They love pak choy, if you want some seeds, feel free to wumail me.

See ya'll at Wannee, by the way....
Quoting 192. LAbonbon:

Re: #191, see post #47

Suggest not quoting denier spam, just flag it.

Re: #191

Intellicast vs. Storm vs. WU app

I have used the Intellicast app since getting a smartphone, and find it far more accurate and easier to use than the pre-installed (in)Accuweather app. When I clicked the Intellicast icon this morning I got a message that the Intellicast app was being discontinued, and a link to download a Storm app.

Is the Intellicast app being discontinued? If so, would Storm or the WU app be closer to Intellicast? I mostly refer to the radar and 10-day outlook, and like to have several locations available with one click when I'm traveling.
Woah! Sorry for the multiple posts last night, everyone. I blame it on a 2016 gremlin, lurking somewhere between my iPad and the WU servers.
Happy New Year's Eve, and may science wisdom prevail in 2017.
Quoting 192. LAbonbon:

Re: #191, see post #47

Suggest not quoting denier spam, just flag it.
Flag indeed. FWIW, #191 is a near-exact duplicate of spam comment #150 under March entry #3264. Just kind of phoning things in now, aren't they?
Quoting 191. Applonia39:


Tim Ball? Thou canst be therious.
Good morning, WU. Happy New Year! Stay safe everyone.

19F here, foggy, then hazy (blech), headed up to 29F...maybe. Yesterday's forecast was a bit off. Never saw 31F, never got out of the mid-20s. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer, hopefully. Then a system moves in to clear out the haze and maybe bring some snow:


A very cold storm system heading toward the Pacific Northwest will bring significant changes to much of Utah Sunday and into early next week. An approaching cold front will bring light snow to far northern Utah late Sunday. This front will begin to erode the strong valley inversions which have locked in fog and haze the past several days. The cold front will sweep south into central Utah by early Monday. Snow associated with this front will likely create travel impacts for the Monday morning commute. On the plus side the front will finally break up the valley inversions, bringing improved air quality to the urban areas.
Quoting 195. Xandra:


Re: #191



Yeah, as soon as I saw his name in the spam post, it was a 'ffs' moment...
Quoting 187. CaptainComet:

....If that ripening fails .... fried green tomatoes!

That's what I was thinking.
I'm more of a plant geek, so I can tell you a couple of things about tomatoes. It's the buzz of the nectar/pollen-foraging bee that vibrates the tomato flower anthers and shakes pollen to the center of the flower (the stigma) that is required for pollination/fertilization to occur. You can achieve the same effect yourself by giving open flowers a gentle thump/flick with your finger every day. Pollinated flowers won't drop off the plant.
Also, don't know which island you are on but if daytime temperatures are over 90 F or nighttime temperatures go above 80 F, most plants won't set fruit at all, at least that's what happens in Texas in the summer!
Quoting 188. islander101010:

good/ morning weather geeks no problem growing the tomato vines but as soon as they bloom the bloom is gone.. bugs? river rats? ideas?
ToesintheWater- thank you! I knew the pollenators were important, I mean besides the obvious-
Quoting 128. islander101010:

the el nino seems stronger cent. pac. doubt that will hinder atlantic cyclone
Modoki?
The recent storm in Maine dumped 2+ feet of snow in some places. This is from the Portland Press Herald:

Storm pulls a fast one, blankets southern Maine with heavy snow
A nor'easter changed course late Thursday, burying some southern and central Maine towns in 2 feet of wet snow – or more.

The deep and heavy blanket of fresh snow that caused widespread power outages and slowed travel Friday morning came as a surprise to many Mainers, including the forecasters who said the storm took an unexpected turn late Thursday. Full article (including some quite pretty drone footage)
KNOWLEDGE:
Is knowing a tomato is a fruit.

WISDOM:
Is not putting it in a fruit salad.
Good Morning Folks. Will re-join the Blog in full swing next week but returned yesterday from a road trip from Florida to DC about 10 days ago and the last week in Chicopee, Mass with the oldest Daughter which included day trips to Concorde, Mass and the the revolutionary war sites and a visit to Walden Pond; Walden was one of the most beautiful places I have ever seen.

I had never seen snow before, and it never actually snowed during our trip (before and just after), but there was tons of snow on ground everywhere in New England and I took lots of pics with snowbanks across several places in Mass.

I can only say this having been a Florida resident all my life; I know that locals adjust to their Winters but I could never live in the North. The am temps were in the single digits/low teens most mornings, highs around 40 every day and windy, and the low sun had that gloomy look across the board. Big Kudos to all of you that live in the NE for putting up with these conditions every year. I left my gloves upstairs one am when I went out to smoke and my hands started hurting from the cold; then one of my Daughter's neighbors came out to say hello and he was just wearing a Patriots sweatshirt and was just fine and chatty while I was shivering in full Winter jackets and layers.
Quoting 206. LAbonbon:

The recent storm in Maine dumped 2+ feet of snow in some places. This is from the Portland Press Herald:

Storm pulls a fast one, blankets southern Maine with heavy snow
A nor'easter changed course late Thursday, burying some southern and central Maine towns in 2 feet of wet snow – or more.

The deep and heavy blanket of fresh snow that caused widespread power outages and slowed travel Friday morning came as a surprise to many Mainers, including the forecasters who said the storm took an unexpected turn late Thursday. Full article (including some quite pretty drone footage)


Sigh.

Yes, we over here were promised more (we ended with about 8") but the storm went a bit further east.
Those crazy lucky NE Florida tomatoes!

A Kashi Rutgers- (this is one plant; I have about six of'm)



A MoneyMaker; one of about five plants- yes I have plenty of seeds to share-


I told my son that I hate winter. He quickly reminded me that hate is a strong word. Therefore, I shall rephrase it; I immensely dislike and despise this despicably deplorable cold weather. There, that's better.
And the coolest part of the trip was the visit to Walden Pond on Christmas Day. We were not expecting lots of folks because of the cold but there were a few hundred "Pilgrims" there from all over the US and World visiting the Thoreau cabin replica and site. Met a very nice young man who was by himself and who asked me to take some pictures of him there at the Pond. He was very fluent in English and visiting from Bejing, China; it's a very small world folks.
Happy New Year's Eve, everyone!

I wish you all a happy and a beautiful 2017.



Words of wisdom for 2017:

“Honor the sacred.
Honor the Earth, our Mother.
Honor the Elders.
Honor all with whom we share the Earth:-
Four-leggeds, two-leggeds, winged ones,
Swimmers, crawlers, plant and rock people.
Walk in balance and beauty.”

~ Native American Elder ~

In South and Southeast Louisiana, be advised a Flood Watch is now posted thru Monday Morning.

Rain total from 4-6 inches and more locally in some areas is expected.



Happy New Year and see all next week.
Have a safe New Years Eve and a Wunderful start tomorrow to 2017 from us in New Orleans.

Mr. and Mrs. P.


Miss Nola Roux delivered 3 Pups November 29..a female and 2 males.

They are by far the largest we have ever bred.

They available to good Homes come Jan 15th.



Good Morning Class!

Storm # 1 this weekend total is .38 and for Storm # 2 forecasters are saying:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
417 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist onshore flow and scattered showers today. A cold vigorous
storm system from the north will bring widespread showers and a
isolated thunderstorms from late this afternoon through the evening.
The snow level will fall from 6000 feet today to 3000 to 3500 feet
by late this evening, and snow will create hazardous travel
conditions and possible travel delays in the mountains. The storm
will exit to the east Sunday morning, but a couple more systems
could bring showers and mountain snow Monday and Tuesday, then again
for Thursday and Friday next week. Temperatures will generally be
below normal through next week...with the potential for excessively
cold temperatures at times in the mountains and high deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

There was a moderate amount of shower activity Friday evening,
but that has dwindled down as of early this morning, with areas of
fog and drizzle continuing. Moist onshore flow will continue through
this afternoon, with scattered showers at times, and snow levels
remaining around 6000-6500 ft.

A compact and vigorous upper level low pressure
system...currently approaching the SF Bay area this attm...will
drop south along the CA coastline during the day today, then swing
SE across the SoCal coastal waters this evening, and exit into
Northern Sonora Sunday morning.

The approaching storm contains quite a cold punch and will bring
snow levels crashing down this evening. For example, the Medford,
OR 00Z sounding from last evening had a freezing level of 2500 ft
MSL in the vicinity of the upper low system. These low snow levels
are certainly a continuing concern for the busy holiday travel
corridors later today and tonight and we continue to have winter
weather headlines in effect. By this evening snow levels will
rapidly drop from around 6000 ft this afternoon to 3000-3500 ft by
late this evening, with the lowest snow levels near the trajectory
of the upper low.

In addition to the low snow levels, given the very robust dynamics
there will be a risk of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with potential for brief heavy rain, gusty winds and
small hail. QPF has been increased a bit with this forecast
update, with amounts ranging from about one-quarter inch for the
lower deserts, one-half inch for the high deserts, one-half to
three-quarters inch for the coast and valleys, and 1 to 1.5 inches
for the mountains. Snowfall will likely be quite heavy above 6000
ft, with around one foot likely.

As the storm exits the region early Sunday morning, conditions
will become more tranquil, although remaining a bit cooler than
normal. A weak impulse in the upper level flow will bring a
chance for showers Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather is
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures remaining on
the cool side with a fast zonal flow aloft. A broad upper level
trough is now slated to pass over California Thursday through
Friday, bringing another chance for showers and mountain snow, as
well as a reinforcing shot of colder air for the mountains and
high deserts.
Storm # 2



Moist onshore flow with scattered showers today with snow levels around 6,500 feet. A cold low pressure system will move in from the north quickly dropping snow levels to 3,500 to 4,000 feet late this evening. Snow could be heavy at times with gusty winds making for difficult holiday travel in the mountains tonight. The storm exits Sunday morning with high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal.

Didn't get my White Christmas but maybe a White New Year is in store.......either way more precip is on the way! Forecasters/Models calling for 1-1 1/2" in the mountains......we will see.
Happy New Year 2017! Since Mexican California.
You can see the ULL quite well just west of San Francisco and it's headed South and East through Soo Cal : )

BTW it is raining now........must be leftovers from Storm # 1
Quoting 218. Grothar:




Happy New Year. May your life always be filled with rainbows!
Just spent some quality time watching the Earth from the ISS. Nice way to end 2016.



You Tube link (includes a more detailed explanation, as well as info on when/how often it goes dark)


For some reason it didn't include the severe layers, hmm..
Happy New Years Everyone!
Some rain totals and a link to more for Soo Cal



Link
I wish all the folks on here a Happy and Healthy New Year! Best wishes to all!
Quoting 225. LAbonbon:

Just spent some quality time watching the Earth from the ISS. Nice way to end 2016.



You Tube link (includes a more detailed explanation, as well as info on when/how often it goes dark)
Thanks Bon..Great view...:)
As I venture into my 58th year here on earth, and what a ride it has been thus far, I find myself reflecting on the past. All the people and pets in my life. My first kiss. My first time. My first car (Ford Fairlane). My first rock concert, which was either ZZ Top or the J Geils Band, can't remember which was first, but J Geils was better. The disco years (agh), I didn't really disco, but I went to discos, that's where all the girls were. You don't go panning for gold where you know there ain't none, right? All those embarrassing moments that I will just fast forward through. The blurr years, those which I can't remember and probably best that I don't. The advances in technology. I remember our first TV, the foil on the antenna, beating the tv on the side, which worked. The first moon landing. Eight track cassettes. My first cell phone, which was like carrying a car battery. Wow, look at us now.

Happy New Year everybody and may your ride on earth be a pleasant one.

Edit #1: My first paycheck (they took out how much?!).
Quoting 230. hydrus:

Thanks Bon..Great view...:)

Between the live feed, the soothing music, and all the New Year's greetings in the chat box coming in from all over the world, it's definitely put a smile on my face this morning.

@hotroddan (post #226) - sometimes I've got to revert to snipping, then dropping the image into imgur so the whole graphic can post. Not sure why that happens sometimes though.
Quoting 200. LAbonbon:

Good morning, WU. Happy New Year! Stay safe everyone.

19F here, foggy, then hazy (blech), headed up to 29F...maybe. Yesterday's forecast was a bit off. Never saw 31F, never got out of the mid-20s. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer, hopefully. Then a system moves in to clear out the haze and maybe bring some snow:


A very cold storm system heading toward the Pacific Northwest will bring significant changes to much of Utah Sunday and into early next week. An approaching cold front will bring light snow to far northern Utah late Sunday. This front will begin to erode the strong valley inversions which have locked in fog and haze the past several days. The cold front will sweep south into central Utah by early Monday. Snow associated with this front will likely create travel impacts for the Monday morning commute. On the plus side the front will finally break up the valley inversions, bringing improved air quality to the urban areas.


Snow is good, Haze is bad(inversion)...
Quoting 226. hotroddan:



For some reason it didn't include the severe layers, hmm..


Right click on the image, then open it in a new tab, copy the address in the new tab.

@daddyjames - his image was from SPC, so I wasn't sure what image he wanted to post?
Also thanks, Bon! That is indeed a peaceful thing -- although for the next hour or so very peaceful views of nothing but ocean. :-) Gives the Blue Marble new meaning. Happy New Year!
WU's 10-day forecast is calling for 57-77 inches of snow. We'll see about that. It's great entertainment watching these predictions dwindle as the days approach.
Truckee, CA Forecast
I wasn't sure to what blog I would be directed this morning, so for all the bloggers still on 2005, I didn't want them left out.
Quoting 212. weathermanwannabe:

And the coolest part of the trip was the visit to Walden Pond on Christmas Day. We were not expecting lots of folks because of the cold but there were a few hundred "Pilgrims" there from all over the US and World visiting the Thoreau cabin replica and site. Met a very nice young man who was by himself and who asked me to take some pictures of him there at the Pond. He was very fluent in English and visiting from Bejing, China; it's a very small world folks.

Thoreau's classic, Walden, had a great influence on my life when I read it at the age of 15.
Well I'm signing off. Must go prep New Year's Eve dinner (turkey with all the fixings). You all have a lovely and safe holiday!

@CaneFreeCR - I've been watching it on YouTube. My favorite part is the chat box with people from all over the world sending greetings and New Year's wishes. The internet can be a wonderful thing at times. Happy New Year to you as well.
Quoting 146. riverat544:

... As time goes on it becomes harder and harder to deny that reality. As with many big political issues we will sooner or later reach a tipping point where it is no longer politically viable to deny the reality. So, I'm tentatively optimistic.

I wish I could share your optimism.
The denialists in politics are not stupid enough to believe what they're saying - they're just too greedy to be honest. The reason is the Carbon Bubble they're in. So they will only accept AGW when that bubble has burst.


If we can’t burn oil, it’s not worth very much. If we can’t defend coastal real estate from rising seas (or even insure it, for that matter), it’s not worth very much. If the industrial process a company owns exposes them to future climate litigation, it’s not worth very much. The value of those assets is going to plummet, inevitably… and likely, soon.
Experts call the differences between valuations in climate-harmful industries and vulnerable physical assets the “Carbon Bubble.” ... The difference between what the high-carbon part of the economy is priced at and what it’s worth is so enormous that a sudden pop could crash financial markets.
So climate action will stave off financial disaster as well as ecological catastrophe -- a win-win for everyone, except those now heavily invested in those Carbon Bubble assets. For the longer it lasts, the more money they make. Their horizons are years or even months, not decades.


All the best for 2017, anyway.
Quoting 235. LAbonbon:

@daddyjames - his image was from SPC, so I wasn't sure what image he wanted to post?


That image is from SPC as well. Its the "hazards" tab opened in a new window. To my knowledge, it is the only SPC product that shows the individual counties, so I assume that was what he may have been trying to post.


New forecast models for both GFS and Euro have a strong Pacific jet undercutting the ridge along the West Coast over the course of the next few days. Jet max will be sitting atop central California by Thursday with a fetch reaching to the Hawaiian Islands. With cold air already in place, precip should be copious.
The wet period for California MAY continue for another week : )


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
929 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy and damp today with scattered showers at times.
Showers will become heavier by evening as a vigorous storm system
drops south along the coast with widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The snow level will fall from 6500 feet today, to
4000 feet by late evening, and locally lower in heavier snow showers
late tonight. Heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains overnight.
This will create hazardous travel conditions and possible travel
delays. Cool and dry on New Years Day. Daytime temperatures will
remain below average through next week, and a continued moist,
onshore flow will keep a threat of light showers at times along and
west of the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

From the high deserts, across the mountains and to the coast, light
to locally moderate amounts of rain were logged overnight. With
central Orange and San Diego Counties reporting the most, at around
one-half inch. At 9 AM PST...Radar shows scattered light showers
continuing to drift east along and west of the mts. The 12Z Miramar
sounding was saturated from the sfc through about 6K FT and had just
under one inch of PW. Strongest winds were SW 15 to 20 MPH with
gusts to around 30 mph over the ridges and below some desert slopes.

Satellite imagery shows a compact upper low spinning west of SFO
this morning, with a thick comma cloud extending south, just west of
the Sierra, and then offshore near Pt. Conception. Farther to the
south over the CA Bight, a thick cloud layer was being drawn slowly
east toward the coast. It was mostly sunny across the deserts. With
this back drop, moist onshore flow will continue mostly cloudy skies
along and west of the mts today with scattered showers at times, and
snow levels remaining around 6000-6500 ft. Mostly sunny over the
deserts.

The compact, vigorous low off SFO this morning will drop south along
the CA coastline today, then swing SE across the Bight this evening,
and exit into Northern Sonora Sunday morning.

Strong lift and instability associated with the passing storm has
prompted winter Storm Warnings tonight in our mountains as the snow
level falls rapidly late today and overnight. Heavy snowfall rates
are likely for several hours this evening creating hazardous travel
conditions in the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as
well, which could create local downpours and brief flooding issues
in urban and poorly drained areas. Strong S-SW winds will develop
ahead of the low late today, then drop off by late evening over the
San Bernardino Mts, but swing west over the mountains farther south
through San Diego County.

Hires models show an additional 0.75 to 1.75 inch of precip over the
mts late afternoon through tonight, with 0.25 to 0.75 inch
additional at lower elevations. Rainfall amounts up to one-quarter
inch are advertised for the lower deserts, with up to one-half inch
in the northern deserts. Depending on the switch-over to snow,
anywhere from 3 to 12 inches of snow is possible above 5000 FT. This
is a convective, showery event, so amounts may be highly variable
over short distances, like we saw last night.

It will remain cool but dry in the wake of the storm for New Years
Day, but a moist onshore flow will continue, which may hold some
thicker cloud cover near the foothills of the mts, otherwise skies
will become partly cloudy. Clearing may be harder to come by on
Monday west of the mts due to a passing weak upper-level disturbance
that is expected to lift the moist layer just enough for clouds, and
perhaps some scattered light showers.

Some weak ridging aloft may emerge in the largely zonal flow midweek
for some drying, but daytime temps will remain below average.

The global models develop a large, positively tilted trough over the
EastPac late next week, which suppresses the westerlies far to the
south and opens the door to a more substantial flow of moisture into
California. This could make for another wet weekend.
Quoting 225. LAbonbon:

Just spent some quality time watching the Earth from the ISS. Nice way to end 2016.



You Tube link (includes a more detailed explanation, as well as info on when/how often it goes dark)

That is so addicting, could watch for hours and I'm sure I will. Thanks!
I wish you all a Happy Preposterous New Year!



Merriam-Webster "Word of the Year 2016": surreal.
We define surreal as "marked by the intense irrational reality of a dream."
Surreal is often looked up spontaneously in moments of both tragedy and surprise . . .
Quoting 241. LAbonbon:

Well I'm signing off. Must go prep New Year's Eve dinner (turkey with all the fixings). You all have a lovely and safe holiday!

@CaneFreeCR - I've been watching it on YouTube. My favorite part is the chat box with people from all over the world sending greetings and New Year's wishes. The internet can be a wonderful thing at times. Happy New Year to you as well.
Have a safe New Year...
This is my last post for the year, I will see you all on the other side! Big things are probably coming in 2017...

Happy New Year!
Haven't been on the blog much lately since there hasn't been much to talk about in the tropics. I'd like to wish everyone a Happy New Year 2017 and I'll see you again in the spring or when there is something to discuss in the Atlantic. I doubt we'll see an Alex repeat this January, but you never know.
Quoting 249. RitaEvac:
This is my last post for the year, I will see you all on the other side! Big things are probably coming in 2017...

Happy New Year!


hopefully not in the mega-ton range...
Quoting 210. aquak9:

Those crazy lucky NE Florida tomatoes!

A Kashi Rutgers- (this is one plant; I have about six of'm)



A MoneyMaker; one of about five plants- yes I have plenty of seeds to share-




Have you ever tried a green tomato pie, its made just like apple pie, just cut green tomatoes in wedges, remove the seeds (otherwise pie will be watery) add spices as if you were making an apple pie, most people cant believe it has no apples in it and jaws drop when you tell them its green tomatoes. Hope you try it.
Hey! I got my faves back! Things are looking up! Happy New Year people.
here's a toast. May your happiness be exceeded only by your income!

Another band went through here a few minutes ago, up to .29, Forecast was .28
and the main part of the rain hasn't gotten here, should be later this afternoon.
Duck Joe, incoming
Quoting 217. Patrap:

Miss Nola Roux delivered 3 Pups November 29..a female and 2 males.

They are by far the largest we have ever bred.

They available to good Homes come Jan 15th.






If I get one, you know I'm gonna raise it as a conservative. (jk)
I woke up to 43 degrees this morning but I'm now sitting at 78 degrees here just south of Fort Myers. That's a nice recovery. We should be back to nice warm weather tomorrow.

But 78 degrees with low humidity and light winds feels pretty nice right now.



IBM, after very careful consideration, sir, I've come to the conclusion that your new blog system sucks.
#256

Well, I've yet to see one live up to my Breeds Traits.

GERMAN SHEPHERD DOG
The German Shepherd Dog is one of America's most popular dog breeds for good reason. He's an intelligent and capable working dog. His devotion and courage are unmatched. And he's amazingly versatile, excelling at most anything he's trained to do: guide and assistance work for the handicapped, police and military service, herding, search and rescue, drug detection, competitive obedience and, last but not least, faithful companion.


So, no, I'll pass..... thank you.

: )

j/k
"...guide and assistance work for the handicapped..."

So this is a breed that HELPS the handicapped?

Not "derides handicapped for pleasure and crowd enjoyment" -- ??

Only if he names the dog Serge.
261. flsky
Happy New Year everyone! Keep your fingers crossed.
Quoting 252. aquak9:



hopefully not in the mega-ton range...
come on it will be a blast
Wishing Everyone a wunderful 2017..

From mine to yours.. Auld Lang Syne. I'm playing flute.
My "plus comment" button has been broken since the revival of the blog, so I guess it hasn't fully revived. And I think my "flag" button has not worked for over a year. Does that mean I've been "bummed" instead of "banned"?
Welcome 2017
Santa carries an AR?

Well I guess I know what I'M asking for next year...

New Year will start with developing rex block in the Gulf of Alaska and associated upper low south of it and due west of San Francisco starting to yank up yet another moisture stream from the ITCZ south of Hawaii. Forecast models have changed from dire predictions of Arctic air in California to an undercutting jet bringing several days of soaking rains next week, and hints of more to come the following week.
Quoting 256. PensacolaDoug:



If I get one, you know I'm gonna raise it as a conservative. (jk)


I bet you like the one on the right! :)
Quoting 265. Skyepony:

Wishing Everyone a wunderful 2017..

From mine to yours.. Auld Lang Syne. I'm playing flute.
Very nice Skye...Flute sounds beautiful.
It's been off and on showers all day and now raining steadily........ .74 so far for both storms, with more coming.

We lost one more for 2016....William Christopher, Father Mulcahy, from MASH, passed away today.
Quoting 255. PedleyCA:


Another band went through here a few minutes ago, up to .29, Forecast was .28
and the main part of the rain hasn't gotten here, should be later this afternoon.
Duck Joe, incoming


We are at .74 for the storms so far........I can't tell where one storm quit and the second begins.....been showering off and on all day here.
Lordy, we're getting a really High Rain Rate currently on the S Shore.

279. 882MB
Quoting 272. BayFog:


New Year will start with developing rex block in the Gulf of Alaska and associated upper low south of it and due west of San Francisco starting to yank up yet another moisture stream from the ITCZ south of Hawaii. Forecast models have changed from dire predictions of Arctic air in California to an undercutting jet bringing several days of soaking rains next week, and hints of more to come the following week.


Good news, for you and residents in California. :)
happy new year all

2017 here we come we got 2 more years 2018 and 2019 then we start things back over with 2020
Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



When I see a music video with Santa carrying an machine gun, i realize how things have changed...Next.?...Mickey Mouse with a grenade launching flame thrower.....:)
Quoting 277. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We are at .74 for the storms so far........I can't tell where one storm quit and the second begins.....been showering off and on all day here.

The Airport is showing .74 for the last 24 hrs. Indian Hills is .43 for today only...
That's some Tap you have there Pat..
285. vis0
AS TO TOP 3 WEATHER EVENT - ONLY Of 2016
----------------copy n paste-----------------------
My top 3::
1)
2)
3)
 
-----------------copy n paste------------------------
 
 MAX will tabulate them all and create the master i mean cat6 top 3 list THIS JUST IN  i just made the MAX part up no tabulating will be done.

 
Not forgetting as  to this (accelerated) Hurried Climate Change.
First taking care of Planet Earth should be top priority its our TRUE home.  Finding/using ways to fuel the power grids in a manner that makes "man" mucho money yet does not violate nature/gawds (really Physics/Galacsics) way of storing elements that will become more useful when they reach their "stored cleaner metamorphosis" stage.  As in coal to diamonds...try not taking out whatt's in the oven TILL ITS DONE....done?, yall know cause its pristine clean [add sparkle and sparkle  "s(o)und" from dishwashing ADs here instead of coal coughing and coal dust overlay ]
 
 
Hoping all can have a productive self-soul~spirit... (wealth-do good~be independent but allow nature to teach) ...in 2017
Quoting 284. PedleyCA:

That's some Tap you have there Pat..


Indeed Pedley,,I'm in between squall lines currently.

Also, I got Rainbowed on the way here again.

Good to see you getting the rains there.



Left a linkie dinkie back there in 2005.



Quoting 181. aquak9:

They said my area wasn't supposta get below 40º tonite. They even drew a map.

I'm already at 35º, and it's only 0034.

So I guess we now know what happens to my tomatoes.


Toss a blanket over 'em. The ground is probably warm enough to keep all the plant except the leaves touching the blanket or tarp from freezing.
Happy new year, guys.

I'm happy to see the models that a few days ago predicted brutal cold - highs in the teens, lows down in the sub-basement - is running more warm air advection/mixing.

Weather like that means camping out in the great-room, feeding the woodstove a few times through the night. I don't much like it, the cats get grumpy 'cause I'm not in my bed being a cozy warm pile, and my back hurts in the morning.

Sure hoping the models are seeing what's what.
Happy New Year! May everyone have a wonderful and blessed 2017.
Dozens gunned down in Istanbul nightclub. And the shooter was dressed as.. you guessed it: Santa Claus.

Apparently undercover police around town were also dressed as Santa, according to reports. Surreal.
Earlier I posted something that came across in a way that was not intended. It was meant to be funny not disrespectful. In hind sight it was poor judgement on my part. I have absolutely nothing against Daddyjames, in fact I like him. Earlier this past week or two, there was joking going on about him changing his name to notoriousjames, he even made a brief appearance under that user name as a joke. I wish I had said "Have a Notorious New Year" instead of what I thought was funny at the time. I apologize to all, especially Daddyjames, for what may have appeared as a personal attack on him. I assure you that was not my intent.

Daddyjames I sent you an email.
292. thunk
A happy new year to everyone on WU, from me.
Regardless of how you feel about the events of the previous, may this one bring you more joy :)
Quoting 281. hydrus:

When I see a music video with Santa carrying an machine gun, i realize how things have changed...Next.?...Mickey Mouse with a grenade launching flame thrower.....:)

Guys, it's dead serious:
Istanbul nightclub attack leaves 39 dead
Media reports suggest the attacker may have been wearing a Santa Claus outfit.






any day now, any day.............
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2017

June 1, 2017 - 5 more months until the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Today it is pouring rain along the Central Gulf Coast.

Health, Wealth, and most of all .. HAPPINESS to Everyone!
beautiful opening day to the new yr here on the east coast of florida.
Happy New Year All ! 1.4" rainfall from our 2 weekend storms, Storms #4 & # 5 for the month of December 2016, with totals for the month of December at 7". : ) Models 7 days out in agreement for undercutting westerly jet into California with some copious amounts of rain for Northern California with Soo Cal on the southern edge,,,,,stay tuned!

72 Hour Rainfall totals from NWS San Diego

Link
Gorgeous weather here in the middle. HAPPY 2017!

Oh. Was looking for the dates of the National Weather Center's annual weather-related art exhibit and found this... New study may solve carbon mystery... NASA grants $166,000,000 to University of Oklahoma to monitor carbon cycle in North America. From the linked news article:

The samples currently used to measure it have been too small, Moore said. The mission, called the Geostationary Carbon Cycle Observatory (GCCO), won't examine the process in the entire world, but it will examine all of North America, non-stop and in fine detail.

"It fits on the spacecraft just perfectly, we believe," Moore said. "We will essentially map, every day, wall-to-wall, about a mile-and-a-half to a mile-and-a-half resolution, the amount of methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere."

The device will measure "solar induced fluorescence," a type of glow plants give off that is just above visible light on the electromagnetic spectrum. The glow is the result of photosynthesis, the method by which most vegetation creates nutrients.


(edit for typos and clarity)
Quoting 281. hydrus:

When I see a music video with Santa carrying an machine gun, i realize how things have changed...Next.?...Mickey Mouse with a grenade launching flame thrower.....:)

Yea. The old country had Krampus - horned anti Santa clause who would torture bad kids.
Santa with a machine gun going "full auto" was on "Futurama" Sadly its real in places like Chicago.
The cold weather gave a couple of days with *no* killings. No shootings, stabbings, beat to death, strangled, etc.
Christmas was a busy day. First "Seven" shot - seven folks sadly killed in one shooting.
Source: Link from the police reports.
Stupidity is avoidable, but like Global warming, national debt and STDs they all continue to grow.

On the other hand. Happy New Year. Success is inversely proportional to ignorance. Spread the word.
Quoting 272. BayFog:


New Year will start with developing rex block in the Gulf of Alaska and associated upper low south of it and due west of San Francisco starting to yank up yet another moisture stream from the ITCZ south of Hawaii. Forecast models have changed from dire predictions of Arctic air in California to an undercutting jet bringing several days of soaking rains next week, and hints of more to come the following week.


Wonder what the snow level will be. Was looking at the models and right now Soo Cal on the southern edge of it all. Saw like 12-24 feet of snow in Sierra's!
Quoting 285. vis0:

AS TO TOP 3 WEATHER EVENT - ONLY Of 2016
----------------copy n paste-----------------------
My top 3::
1)
2)
3)
 
-----------------copy n paste------------------------
 
 MAX will tabulate them all and create the master i mean cat6 top 3 list THIS JUST IN  i just made the MAX part up no tabulating will be done.

 
Not forgetting as  to this (accelerated) Hurried Climate Change.
First taking care of Planet Earth should be top priority its our TRUE home.  Finding/using ways to fuel the power grids in a manner that makes "man" mucho money yet does not violate nature/gawds (really Physics/Galacsics) way of storing elements that will become more useful when they reach their "stored cleaner metamorphosis" stage.  As in coal to diamonds...try not taking out whatt's in the oven TILL ITS DONE....done?, yall know cause its pristine clean [add sparkle and sparkle  "s(o)und" from dishwashing ADs here instead of coal coughing and coal dust overlay ]
 
 
Hoping all can have a productive self-soul~spirit... (wealth-do good~be independent but allow nature to teach) ...in 2017
Good morning Vis...Many others and myself are tired of watching these evil and greedy people fatten there wallets at the expense of the Earth and its creatures. Believe me when I say we will not tolerate it..There will be a war between the greedy and the people who want to protect the Earth and its inhabitants. The less oil and gas we buy the better, because no matter how much they drill and upgrade, if nobody is buying it, they go bankrupt...hope it happens fast...:)
I just logged on to WU to find a local allergy alert due to weeds! Is this even possible? It has been warm lately, i.e above freezing...yesterday was 47°F. briefly at 11:00 a.m.
Hello 1-1-17; what surprises do you have in store for us this year?
HAPPY NEW YEAR to All WU Peeps
Hey Joe, the rainfall up here according to the info you posted was .86(KRAL)
Indian Hills showed .6 yesterday, Nearby CoCoRaHS didn't report anything(unreal).
All is quiet on New year's Day'...





Well,we began 2017 not far from August 2016 here as the Garage began taking on water round 11pm from the efficient rains then.
It slacked off just after we raised the Standing Antique Chest up on red bricks.
Flash Flood watch continues thru Monday Morning here too.
Rain Totals so far..

Happy New Year!
Quoting 303. ChiThom:

I just logged on to WU to find a local allergy alert due to weeds! Is this even possible? It has been warm lately, i.e above freezing...yesterday was 47°F. briefly at 11:00 a.m.
Hello 1-1-17; what surprises do you have in store for us this year?


I think this is pretty surprising, I was playing hockey on my pond this morning with the grandchildren when the youngest started screaming that there was a monster on the ice.

LOL, that's a first a crayfish in January.

Quoting 301. hydrus:

Good morning Vis...Many others and myself are tired of watching these evil and greedy people fatten there wallets at the expense of the Earth and its creatures. Believe me when I say we will not tolerate it..There will be a war between the greedy and the people who want to protect the Earth and its inhabitants. The less oil and gas we buy the better, because no matter how much they drill and upgrade, if nobody is buying it, they go bankrupt...hope it happens fast...:)

Yeah, make the Carbon Bubble pop!
Umm, er ... tell me just before it happens, so I can sell my seaside flat :/
Quoting 296. islander101010:

beautiful opening day to the new yr here on the east coast of florida.


Yeah, 82 and sunny over here in Fort Myers. It's a beautiful day.
But we really need some rain.

Here's are official "dry season" precipitation numbers so far.
October - 2.73" (all before Oct. 16th)
November - 0.0"
December - .24"
How can I view, If I still can since the maps are new a interactive map of the US that I used to view and it did like a 10 day period and would show blue for the upcoming snow. I really miss that and can't find a new way.
Please and thank you
Auburn and Oklahoma Sugar Bowl Fans best keep their rain gear close today and thru Gametime tomorrow on the Superdome Trek from the Quarter.

Flash Flood watch is effect.




314. 882MB
ECMWF and GFS models are indicating a wet setup for the NE Caribbean and SW Atlantic sometime early next week. Still too far out and models could change but models have been hinting at this for some days now.

ECMWF



GFS

Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



and this is weather related, how?
Quoting 315. Tampa969mlb:

and this is weather related, how?


Indeed, and that aint Rock and Roll..in any way nor form.


Moderator, I served with Rock & Roll. I know Rock & Roll. Rock & Roll is a friend of mine. Moderator, you're no Rock & Roll



Quoting 310. EmsiNasklug:


India Meteorological Department has this to say about that image at about the 96 hour mark

A fresh low pressure area likely to form over southern Andaman sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around January 5th.
Inbound rogue cells ahead of the next squall line could bring brief Heavy winds and some serious downpours with High rain rates.



The 2017 theme song for Climate Science, addressing its relationship to general political sensibility:

Frank Zappa - Whippin' Post (live)

(The vocals by Bobby Martin are, if imperfect, Stunning nonetheless, especially at the end)
Re #298 - Barefootontherocks -


See also:

NASA
Dec. 6, 2016
RELEASE 16-115

NASA Announces First Geostationary Vegetation, Atmospheric Carbon Mission

An excerpt from the press release:

"The GeoCARB mission breaks new ground for NASA's Earth science and applications programs," said Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "GeoCARB will provide important new measurements related to Earth’s global natural carbon cycle, and will allow monitoring of vegetation health throughout North, Central and South America."

GeoCARB will measure daily the total concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and carbon monoxide in the atmosphere with a horizontal ground resolution of 3 to 6 miles (5 to 10 kilometers). GeoCARB also will measure solar-induced fluorescence, a signal related directly to changes in vegetation photosynthesis and plant stress.

Total NASA funding for the mission over the next five years will be $166 million, which includes initial development, launch of the mission as a hosted payload on a commercial communications satellite, and data analysis.

The University of Oklahoma-led GeoCARB team will build an advanced payload that will be launched on a commercial communications satellite, employing otherwise unused launch and spacecraft capacity to advance science and provide societal benefit. By demonstrating GeoCARB can be flown as a hosted payload on a commercial satellite, the mission will strengthen NASA’s partnerships with the commercial satellite industry and provide a model that can be adopted by NASA’s international partners to expand these observations to other parts of the world.

Mission partners include the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center in Palo Alto, California; SES Government Solutions Company in Reston, Virginia; the Colorado State University in Fort Collins; and NASA’s Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, California, Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
Quoting 315. Tampa969mlb:

and this is weather related, how?


the music is a form of communication nothing more nothing less neutral



Quoting 303. ChiThom:

I just logged on to WU to find a local allergy alert due to weeds! Is this even possible? It has been warm lately, i.e above freezing...yesterday was 47°F. briefly at 11:00 a.m.
Hello 1-1-17; what surprises do you have in store for us this year?


Yes, we laughed at the pollen alert here too.
I had no idea what you guys were talking about earlier, but now I do-- I just got "rainbowed."

What is up with all that (and the slow loading today)? Are they tinkering around with something?
Quoting 324. GreyJewel:

I had no idea what you guys were talking about earlier, but now I do-- I just got "rainbowed."

What is up with all that (and the slow loading today)? Are they tinkering around with something?

naw not one here in that dept. today or tomorrow either
just weirdness server/software has a mind of its own
seems rainbow effect happens when you click on docs blog header in the main blog list in his feature area or somem like that don't want to make it computated


lol

what a beautiful day here today rain above seasonal Monday and Tuesday then cold shot follows
got rainbowed once this week myself its like a time warp on the time space continuum or something
Quoting 291. washingaway:

Earlier I posted something that came across in a way that was not intended. It was meant to be funny not disrespectful. In hind sight it was poor judgement on my part. I have absolutely nothing against Daddyjames, in fact I like him. Earlier this past week or two, there was joking going on about him changing his name to notoriousjames, he even made a brief appearance under that user name as a joke. I wish I had said "Have a Notorious New Year" instead of what I thought was funny at the time. I apologize to all, especially Daddyjames, for what may have appeared as a personal attack on him. I assure you that was not my intent.

Daddyjames I sent you an email.


Replied to your email. I did not see to the post, and hope no one took umbrage to it - I certainly would not have. Hope you are enjoying the first day of the New Year, and a belated Happy Birthday to you as well!
KOTG_
Is admin aware the "rainbow" effect is not limited to Dr. Masters blog? and that this flashbacking glitch shows a "this entry has been removed" message for those bloggers who removed their initial entry - even though the current entry is up and running? After literally dozens of tries, I could not get into your blog today or joealaska's to wish you guys a happy New Year. :(

Xandra,
Thanks. I looked at NASA for info, apparently on the wrong page, "Carbon Cycles and Ecosystems." Glad to see the satellite and its data will cover more of the Western hemisphere. The Norman newspaper article mentioned what may be a higher resolution than does the press release, which makes me wonder if North America will have more data points. The news article listed the several partners as did the press release, and also stated, "as well as colleagues from France, Australia and Mexico," which was not on the NASA press release. Interesting. Hope I live long enough to see the fruits of their labors.
Quoting 330. daddyjames:



Replied to your email. I did not see to the post, and hope no one took umbrage to it - I certainly would not have. Hope you are enjoying the first day of the New Year, and a belated Happy Birthday to you as well!

Thanks big daddy, may your notoriety expand daily.
Ps. Amazing, the numbers of funded research grants listed on that NASA carbon cycle and ecosystems page
334. beell
The relative insignificance of what I post here on Doc's blog is no longer worth the significant effort required to do so, lol!
(blog is still buggy as s***)





Tomorrow's weather maker for eastern TX (red circle), the ARKLATEX and perhaps farther south in the ENHANCED risk area tomorrow as a strong, compact shortwave tracks through the broad central US longwave-from W TX towards the Mississippi Valley.

Although TX is not in the SPC's ENHANCED risk area tomorrow, I'd bet even money we (Texans) see at least the first tornado of 2017. East central TX near the LA border before noon tomorrow. Perhaps a chance for a brief tornado in the Dallas-Ft Worth area in close to the weakly modeled surface low.

The real deal below:



Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday across much of the western through central Gulf states into portions of the Mid South, accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...eastern TX through the Gulf coast states...

A warm front (portions of which will be convectively reinforced) will likely extend from a weak surface low in northeast TX ewd through southern portions of the Gulf coast states. In response to ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough the surface low will develop northeastward, reaching northern MS by Monday evening, while the warm front will make only slow northward progress. A cold front extending south from the low will move through eastern TX and the lower MS Valley region during the day and into the southeast states overnight.

Primary complicating factor/uncertainty with regard to this outlook is the evolution of the thermodynamic environment and potential for ongoing convection. Greatest instability will reside from eastern TX into a portion of the lower MS valley where plume of steeper lapse rates will have overspread moist axis south of warm front where mlcape to 1500 j/kg is possible. Widespread clouds and weaker lapse rates will limit mlcape to aob 1000 j/kg farther east, with the greater instability expected south of warm front over southern portions of Gulf coastal states. A few severe storms are expected to be ongoing along cold front across eastern TX where vertical shear and instability will support organized structures including a few supercells and bowing segments. This activity will persist into the lower MS Valley. Another corridor of severe storms is expected as storms develop over the gulf coast states, especially along warm front and warm sector confluence bands as the low-level jet strengthens. Low-level hodographs and strong effective bulk shear will support potential for a few supercells with isolated tornadoes possible. Severe threat becomes increasingly uncertain with northward extent into Alabama and Tennessee due to limited potential for boundary layer destabilization north of warm front.

..Dial.. 01/01/2017
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
353 PM CST sun Jan 1 2017

Short term...
the deep moisture rich onshore flow has been living up to
expectations in providing several rounds of moderate to
occasionally heavy rainfall thus far. Several locations are
beginning to exceed 6 inches with those locations now in play for
perhaps a 10 inch storm total by Monday evening. The gist of the
Flood Watch is still on track and has been re-issued with no
appreciable changes aside from mentioning the potential for
isolated 10 inch totals. One area favored to do so will be the
Mississippi coast where some banded training has occurred at times
with Long Beach and Gulfport racking up the larger values thus far,
with more to come.

The next impulse is the concentrated energy associated with the
western cut-off low that is ejecting eastward into far West Texas
this afternoon. The increased jet energy and upper level difluence
flow pattern will aid in maintaining and even enhancing the Omega
over the region for additional heavy rainfall and increased risk
of stronger thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has an
enhanced risk of severe storms over a large portion of our
forecast area for Monday as the main impulse energy passes to the
north during Max heating. It does appear all modes of severe are
in play given the helicity and instability of the airmass in
place.

Long term...
once the rain producing impulses clear the area later Monday
evening but probably by midnight, this will onset a one day period
of relatively quiet weather with a flat surface pressure gradient
and a light wind field to perhaps induce considerable amount of
radiational fog should the clouds thin enough to allow for
radiational cooling Tuesday morning. A weak frontogenetic zone
with no sensible weather moves through Tuesday evening to perhaps
allow for more fog formation Tuesday night before Canadian cold
air builds in early Wednesday morning to bring a couple days of
cold conditions back across the deep south. The high moderates and
moves east late Friday to bring a renewed round of isentropic lift
and a cold rain next weekend. This will have to monitored closely
for a brief window of opportunity for some non-impactful winter
type precipitation, likely in the form of sleet or graupel, before
transitioning to a cold rain assuming the cold air does not
moderate too fast before the moisture returns over the top. At
this time, leaving the weather elements as a light rain during
that period.

&&

												
Must be nice!

French employees can legally ignore work emails outside of office hours

That 10 p.m. email from your boss? It's your right to ignore it.

That Saturday ping from a colleague with “just one quick question?” A response on Monday should suffice.

If you're in France, that is.

French workers rang in a new year at midnight — as well as a “right to disconnect” law that grants employees in the country the legal right to ignore work emails outside of typical working hours, according to the Guardian.

The new employment law requires French companies with more than 50 employees to begin drawing up policies with their workers about limiting work-related technology usage outside the office, the newspaper reported.

The motivation behind the legislation is to stem work-related stress that increasingly leaks into people's personal time — and hopefully prevent employee burnout, French officials said.
Quoting 333. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. Amazing, the numbers of funded research grants listed on that a href="http://cce.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/cce/cce_awards.p l" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.
href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">NASA carbon cycle and ecosystems page


Here's why we're doing that -

Utqiagvik, AK (Barrow) starts the new year hot – almost the entire North Slope of Alaska is at or above freezing New Years Day 2017 morning. …
Quoting 338. GeoffreyWPB:

Must be nice!

French employees can legally ignore work emails outside of office hours

That 10 p.m. email from your boss? It's your right to ignore it.

That Saturday ping from a colleague with %u201Cjust one quick question?%u201D A response on Monday should suffice.

If you're in France, that is.

French workers rang in a new year at midnight %u2014 as well as a %u201Cright to disconnect%u201D law that grants employees in the country the legal right to ignore work emails outside of typical working hours, according to the Guardian.

The new employment law requires French companies with more than 50 employees to begin drawing up policies with their workers about limiting work-related technology usage outside the office, the newspaper reported.

The motivation behind the legislation is to stem work-related stress that increasingly leaks into people's personal time %u2014 and hopefully prevent employee burnout, French officials said.


Oh, we're supposed to reply to those outside of working hours? Hmmm, helps explain a lot . . . .
Rainbowed ?
What a great term, for ghosts in the machine.
My personal hypothesis ............
It's the Russians.
Quoting 331. Barefootontherocks:

KOTG_
Is admin aware the "rainbow" effect is not limited to Dr. Masters blog? and that this flashbacking glitch shows a "this entry has been removed" message for those bloggers who removed their initial entry - even though the current entry is up and running? After literally dozens of tries, I could not get into your blog today or joealaska's to wish you guys a happy New Year. :(

Xandra,
Thanks. I looked at NASA for info, apparently on the wrong page, "Carbon Cycles and Ecosystems." Glad to see the satellite and its data will cover more of the Western hemisphere. The Norman newspaper article mentioned what may be a higher resolution than does the press release, which makes me wonder if North America will have more data points. The news article listed the several partners as did the press release, and also stated, "as well as colleagues from France, Australia and Mexico," which was not on the NASA press release. Interesting. Hope I live long enough to see the fruits of their labors.


to be honest BF in my opinion only
they just need to revamp the whole thing and redo a new working program
it does and continues to do weird things many fixes
but I fear the fixes just unleashes a whole bunch of other issues
this thing was buggered from get go

and in the end will have to be all done new

that's what I think anyway
just like the rest I continue
in hopes that it will get fixed or just updated
to a whole new layout and program

343. bwi
I'm still watching chances for SE and mid-atlantic snow next weekend. 18z GFS takes low pressure out of Colorado right down to the gulf coast and swings it too far offshore to really hit DC. But only a small change in track and a little more blocking high to the NE, and then...


We lost a Scribbler on Nov 9th. But we just got news just 2 days ago. Needless to say we were worried when he went "dark" back in Oct. His handle was DTL, and he was a tireless member of that nest . It broke all our hearts
So I have a question for this very close knit family here .

How would one conduct an online wake ?
Quoting 339. RobertWC:



Here's why we're doing that -

Utqiagvik, AK (Barrow) starts the new year hot – almost the entire North Slope of Alaska is at or above freezing New Years Day 2017 morning. …




Welcome the 2017 Hydra CO2 Forcings Meme too.

Quoting 344. RobertWC:

We lost a Scribbler on Nov 9th. But we just got news just 2 days ago. Needless to say we were worried when he went "dark" back in Oct. His handle was DTL, and he was a tireless member of that nest . It broke all our hearts
So I have a question for this very close knit family here .

How would one conduct an online wake ?


I like that Phil Ochs song posted to the Scribbler thread, also I love that Jethro Tull song you've posted a few times now.
Quoting 344. RobertWC:

We lost a Scribbler on Nov 9th. But we just got news just 2 days ago. Needless to say we were worried when he went "dark" back in Oct. His handle was DTL, and he was a tireless member of that nest . It broke all our hearts
So I have a question for this very close knit family here .

How would one conduct an online wake ?



Virtual Memorial

Link
Quoting 347. Patrap:




more yet to come
345. Patrap

The chart is spot on. And I really like the new hydra image.

I'm still stuck with Lone Wati telling an ole' woman from Missouri , "Hell is coming to breakfast".

I find my intellect is turning into guacamole. bright green to black , with no lime juice to slow the oxidation .

Post that link to the Barrow chart , there's some big context in that one I want to share.
Quoting 349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

more yet to come
You know what they say about whatever you are doing at midnight New Year's Eve...
RobertWC you have mail. Keepers # 348 virtual memorial is great too.
After watching the live stream from the ISS I know how I want to die, even if it's done through virtual reality on my dying bed.
Been de flooding as it rises here in the garage with the shop vac. I put all the antique furniture up on cinder block jus in time.

240 Gals I emptied so far..with it tapering off in rate now.

Sheeesh'

Welcome to Spring 2017.



All of my family is super paranoid about this rainstorm even though we've only had like a fraction of what we had before, not to mention the obvious differences between this event and the one in August. I mean it's understandable and I'm trying to be patient, but... >_>

I bet this is how New Orleans felt after Katrina.
Quoting 356. KoritheMan:

All of my family is super paranoid about this rainstorm even though we've only had like a fraction of what we had before, not to mention the obvious differences between this event and the one in August. I mean it's understandable and I'm trying to be patient, but... >_>

I bet this is how New Orleans felt after Katrina.


Xmas 2005 for us.

Early wu land blogging..


A FEMA trailer Xmas..
Only a lucky few.

Astronaut selfie.


Don't know why the image didn't post. It was from NASA.
First selfie taken in Space during a EVA. Buzz Aldrin Gemini 12

Does anyone know when the hell the orange envelope or some sort of notification alert signal will come back for the WU mail? I've tried contacting admin but it seems harder to get in contact with them these days.
Storm Totals last 36 hrs here.

Quoting 343. bwi:

I'm still watching chances for SE and mid-atlantic snow next weekend. 18z GFS takes low pressure out of Colorado right down to the gulf coast and swings it too far offshore to really hit DC. But only a small change in track and a little more blocking high to the NE, and then...





So, you were saying...
Quoting 334. beell:

The relative insignificance of what I post here on Doc's blog is no longer worth the significant effort required to do so, lol!
(blog is still buggy as s***)





Tomorrow's weather maker for eastern TX (red circle), the ARKLATEX and perhaps farther south in the ENHANCED risk area tomorrow as a strong, compact shortwave tracks through the broad central US longwave-from W TX towards the Mississippi Valley.

Although TX is not in the SPC's ENHANCED risk area tomorrow, I'd bet even money we (Texans) see at least the first tornado of 2017. East central TX near the LA border before noon tomorrow. Perhaps a chance for a brief tornado in the Dallas-Ft Worth area in close to the weakly modeled surface low.

The real deal below:



Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday across much of the western through central Gulf states into portions of the Mid South, accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...eastern TX through the Gulf coast states...

A warm front (portions of which will be convectively reinforced) will likely extend from a weak surface low in northeast TX ewd through southern portions of the Gulf coast states. In response to ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough the surface low will develop northeastward, reaching northern MS by Monday evening, while the warm front will make only slow northward progress. A cold front extending south from the low will move through eastern TX and the lower MS Valley region during the day and into the southeast states overnight.

Primary complicating factor/uncertainty with regard to this outlook is the evolution of the thermodynamic environment and potential for ongoing convection. Greatest instability will reside from eastern TX into a portion of the lower MS valley where plume of steeper lapse rates will have overspread moist axis south of warm front where mlcape to 1500 j/kg is possible. Widespread clouds and weaker lapse rates will limit mlcape to aob 1000 j/kg farther east, with the greater instability expected south of warm front over southern portions of Gulf coastal states. A few severe storms are expected to be ongoing along cold front across eastern TX where vertical shear and instability will support organized structures including a few supercells and bowing segments. This activity will persist into the lower MS Valley. Another corridor of severe storms is expected as storms develop over the gulf coast states, especially along warm front and warm sector confluence bands as the low-level jet strengthens. Low-level hodographs and strong effective bulk shear will support potential for a few supercells with isolated tornadoes possible. Severe threat becomes increasingly uncertain with northward extent into Alabama and Tennessee due to limited potential for boundary layer destabilization north of warm front.

..Dial.. 01/01/2017

Even money?
;)

Mesoscale Discussion 0002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2017

Areas affected...Much of Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 020411Z - 020645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity later tonight, with damaging winds and hail expected. A watch may be needed prior to 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A rapidly moving cold front continues to move eastward across West TX, with several wind gusts in excess of 40-50 kts measured and only sporadic lightning. This front will gradually interact with an increasingly unstable air mass, still well to the east as of 04Z. However, increasing flow in the low levels just above the surface will help transport mid to upper 50s dewpoints northward out of South TX, with a rapid uptick in storms along the front expected as MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg develops. This in turn should allow for a line of storms along the front, with both wind and hail possible.

..Jewell/Hart.. 01/02/2017
Day 1 outlook, tornado prob till 6 a.m.


New Day 1 outlook tornado probs after 6 a.m.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK FROM EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening across much of the western through central Gulf states and into portions of the Mid South. All severe hazards will be possible including a few tornadoes, with damaging wind gusts being the greatest threat from Louisiana through much of Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
Models remain consistent with the track and timing of the compact and progressive shortwave trough, now emerging into west Texas per water vapor imagery, as this system moves east into the lower Mississippi Valley by 00Z and should reach Georgia and eastern Tennessee by 12Z Tuesday. Fast zonal mid-upper level flow is expected to develop across the Great Basin and southwest states into the central and southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley this forecast period which will aid in a more eastward track of the compact Texas shortwave trough. A synoptic surface low attendant to this progressive trough is expected to track from east/northeast Texas into the ArkLaMiss region by early this evening and reach middle Tennessee by late in the forecast period. A warm front extending east from the surface low should make greater northward progress from central into northern Mississippi than locations farther east, as stronger surface pressure falls are forecast from northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing south from the low will advance through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast states.

...East TX to the central/northeast Gulf coast states and TN Valley...
Low-level moistening is already underway with middle 60s surface dew points expected across much of Louisiana and the southern halves of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia by early afternoon. This combined with pockets of surface heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (at least 7 c/km in the 500-700 mb layer) spreading across the lower Mississippi Valley to western Alabama will boost instability to moderate values (1000-1500 j/kg) across the Enhanced risk area.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Alabama to central Georgia appear to be attendant to a midlevel impulse currently tracking across this region. This impulse should reach central Georgia by 12Z today, with the potential for some breaks in the cloudiness across the warm sector of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana through the morning to early
afternoon.

An ongoing band of strong to severe storms is expected across parts of East Texas at 12Z today with this band advancing east into a destabilizing warm sector across the lower Mississippi Valley through this morning and afternoon, while deep-layer wind fields strengthen and spread east with the trough. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for an organized severe storm threat as activity spreads east and northeast, with all severe hazards possible. Given a 50 kt southwesterly 700-mb jet spreading across southern Louisiana to southern Alabama this afternoon and evening, this
region may have the greatest coverage of severe storms with damaginwinds being the primary threat.

A separate area of strong to severe storms should develop across the central Gulf coast across southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama attendant to a separate midlevel impulse, currently moving across Deep South Texas. Vertically veering and strengthening winds will favor all severe hazards with this activity as it spreads into the western Florida Panhandle, southern and perhaps central Alabama to parts of western Georgia.

Farther north into Tennessee and southwest Kentucky, instability should be elevated with isolated hail being the primary threat with storms across these areas.

..Peters/Mosier.. 01/02/2017



Mesoscale Discussion 0003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central and east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 020704Z - 020830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds should continue to increase over the next hour or two, and severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...As an upper trough over the southern High Plains ejects eastward, an increase in convection has been noted over the past several hours along and just behind a Pacific cold front. These thunderstorms will encounter an increasingly moist and unstable airmass as they continue move eastward into parts of central and east TX overnight. Better Low-level moisture characterized by surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s is present along and east of the I-35 corridor in TX. Strong mid-level flow around 40-50 kt associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will be more than sufficient to support supercell structures with the initial activity. The linear nature of the front suggests that convection will likely consolidate into a line with time, and this scenario is well-supported by various convection-allowing model guidance. Therefore, damaging winds should become the main threat as the line of storms approaches the I-35 corridor. With low-level flow forecast to increase through the early morning hours across the Mesoscale Discussion area, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out either with the line, or with any discrete development within the open warm sector ahead of the line. Due to the overall severe threat expected to increase over the next hour or two, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 01/02/2017
Starting to rain here. Sweet little line moving into SW OK.

Couple of strong cells moving along the I-10 in central TX where the bulk shear's 50 knots and the CAPE's 2000. Glad I didn't take that bet.
(San Angelo radar not posting. I think I forgot how to do it.)
Texas gets Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1
Says 0235 cdt. I think that's a typo.
Click image for watch details.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
chris bertish on his sup took a more southerly heading yesterday than the past week. could be due to the ull just west of the canary islands. long way to go but what a great start.
Happy New Year, everyone! I wasn't feeling well yesterday or I would have been in the blog....
Folks in these area's heed your Local NWS warnings,already some tornado watches are up...........
From Oil Change International:

Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Overview

[...]

More Info: The Worst of the Worst

Direct subsidies and public finance for the production and exploration of fossil fuels are particularly heinous because they prop up failing corporations, subsidize carbon which can never be burned, and actively undermine efforts to combat global warming and its deadly impacts.

Production subsidies: actively undermining commitments to act on climate

Productions subsidies are government support for fossil fuel production, including exploration, development, extraction, and transportation. We define support for fossil fuel production to include national subsidies, investment by state-owned enterprises, and public finance specifically for fossil fuel production.

G20 governments are publicly financing a bailout for some of the world’s largest, most carbon-intensive and polluting companies, to the tune of more than $444 billion per year, as highlighted in our 2015 report, Empty Promises. The United States and Russia lead the way with more than $20 billion in domestic production subsidies handed out each year, while other countries subsidize at higher levels through state-owned enterprises.



In effect, governments are propping up one of the richest industries in the history of the world: the production of oil, gas, and coal. Most of these fossil fuels can never be used if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, so this support is tantamount to governments allowing fossil fuel producers to undermine national climate commitments, while paying them for the privilege.

[...]

---------------

Take action: Stop Funding Fossils

---------------

Do you live near oil & gas facitilities? See US Interactive threat map

Good morning, WU. Not a pleasant start to the day for some folks:



Link for Tornado Watch Info
Quoting 333. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. Amazing, the numbers of funded research grants listed on that NASA carbon cycle and ecosystems page

Speaking of carbon, see comment #375
Quoting 369. Barefootontherocks:
Starting to rain here. Sweet little line moving into SW OK.

Couple of strong cells moving along the I-10 in central TX where the bulk shear's 50 knots and the CAPE's 2000. Glad I didn't take that bet.
(San Angelo radar not posting. I think I forgot how to do it.)
Don't feel bad. I just woke up and forgot what I was supposta do, too. Thank goodness my cat's gotta back-up plan.
Quoting 333. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. Amazing, the numbers of funded research grants listed on that NASA carbon cycle and ecosystems page
Alas, one only wishes there were more. That's just 681 grants over seven years--2010-2016 inclusive--for a total of 97.3 per year, or about one every three-and-a-quarter days. But with the incoming administration, I think we can expect to see those numbers drop dramatically, to perhaps a dozen or so per year--and most of those studies may be along the lines of "Convincing the Public of the Hidden Benefits of Anthropogenic CO2", or "Urban Fracking as a Means of Bypassing EPA Rules", or "Silencing Climate Scientists to Enhance ExxonMobil's Shareholder Value".

Sigh...

On a side note, we often hear how research scientists are getting rich from lucrative government grants such as these. I wonder, then, how many of the names on the PI list could be found on the Forbes list of the wealthiest Americans. To hear denialists tell it, it's probably most or even all of them. But my guess is it's a lot less. As in, say, none of them.
Quoting 302. daddyjames:

A Happy new Year's Morning. Some not so light reading over your cup of coffee.

Scientists Loved and Loathed by an Agrochemical Giant
With corporate funding of research, “There’s no scientist who comes out of this unscathed.”


Thanks for sharing this. Syngenta was Ciba-Geigy, and is now being acquired by the China National Chemical Corporation? And somehow I missed the fact that government entities like the USDA have been signing multi-year nondisclosure agreements... We are so sc****d.
Basic question for anybody. The NWS main page has a map of the US by county, showing alerts, advisories, etc. It regularly has air quality alerts. Since my move here to Utah I haven't seen one for Salt Lake County, even though PM2.5 levels were high enough to trigger mandatory actions (no burning of solid fuels). Anyone know if the action of getting the alerts displayed are either due to specific levels of non-attainment, or due to actions by state regulators? (Why have Alaska and Idaho recently had air quality alerts displayed on NWS' main page, while Utah has not?)
EL NINO or LA NINA .... well I don't care. The weather would stay dry over the N Leewards in both case :\
381. LAbonbon


WFO AIR QUALITY PRODUCTS SPECIFICATION

Excerpt:

2. Air Quality Statement (AQI). The AQI product is used by WFOs to relay routine air
quality messages issued by state and local agencies.


WFOs are only responsible for the dissemination of these messages, not the content. Any
content issues are relayed to the issuing state or local agency.
Quoting 333. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. Amazing, the numbers of funded research grants listed on that NASA carbon cycle and ecosystems page


It may seem like a lot, but it's really almost nothing. That's over several years, and a number of the grants aren't directly related to the branch of science it was granted for. For example, there are several grants assigned for things like cataloging and archiving data.

For every grant that's approved, there's a number that were rejected. Since the vast majority of the climate related budget at NASA has to go to operations (satellites, data systems, supercomputers) there's not a whole lot left over for grants and such. Fights over funding is an all too common occurrence, complete with bitter grudges and bruised egos. I got to witness such things first hand when I worked at NASA a few years back.

Hence why I find the "conspiracies" brought up by idiotic deniers to be nothing but shear stupidity. Scientists are not rich. They don't make bank. And the entire annual budget allocated for them to fight over is dwarfed by a single quarter of profit by companies like Exxon. If scientists wanted to get rich, they'd abandon their morals and go on one of big fossil fuel's payrolls or take a job at one of the so-called conservative think tanks.
Active Advisory: Areal Flood Watch, Marine Warning, Small Craft Advisory
Quoting 383. nrtiwlnvragn:

381. LAbonbon


WFO AIR QUALITY PRODUCTS SPECIFICATION

Excerpt:

2. Air Quality Statement (AQI). The AQI product is used by WFOs to relay routine air
quality messages issued by state and local agencies.


WFOs are only responsible for the dissemination of these messages, not the content. Any
content issues are relayed to the issuing state or local agency.

Thank you (once again!) for the quick response. You are definitely the man with the answers :)
From Grist:

E.U. loophole counts wood energy as “carbon neutral.” It’s not.

As American foresters ramp up logging to meet the growing demand for wood pellets by power plants on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, a new European wood energy proposal would allow the power plants to continue claiming their operations are green for at least 13 more years, despite releasing more heat-trapping pollution than coal.

Most of the wood fueling converted coal plants in England, Denmark, and other European countries is coming from North American forests. Each month, about 1 million tons of tree trunks and branches from southern U.S. pine plantations and natural forests is being turned into pellets and shipped to European power plants, mostly to Drax power station in the U.K.

The growing transatlantic trade is being financed with billions of dollars in European climate subsidies because of a regulatory loophole that allows wood energy to count as if it’s as clean as solar or wind energy, when in reality it’s often worse for the climate than burning coal. Only the pollution released when wood pellets are produced and transported is counted on climate ledgers. Actual pollution from the smokestack — by far the greatest source of carbon pollution from wood energy — is overlooked.

[...]

The proposed rules were released just a few months after the commission released a 361-page warning about the risks to the climate and American wildlife from the growing use of wood in the continent’s power plants.

“They’re acknowledging that there’s an issue there, but they’re not taking immediate action,” said David Carr, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, which is one of the environmental groups in Europe and the U.S. uniting in a campaign to oppose most wood energy. They have been pushing for new rules that could halt the use of subsidized wood for electricity in Europe after 2020. “It’s a big disappointment.”

A Climate Central analysis last year found that switching from coal to wood increased carbon dioxide emissions at Drax power station in rural England by 15 to 20 percent for each megawatt produced.

[...]



[...]

Click here to read full article.

See also: Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change

Quoting 388. Xandra:

From Grist:

E.U. loophole counts wood energy as “carbon neutral.” It’s not.

As American foresters ramp up logging to meet the growing demand for wood pellets by power plants on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, a new European wood energy proposal would allow the power plants to continue claiming their operations are green for at least 13 more years, despite releasing more heat-trapping pollution than coal.

Most of the wood fueling converted coal plants in England, Denmark, and other European countries is coming from North American forests. Each month, about 1 million tons of tree trunks and branches from southern U.S. pine plantations and natural forests is being turned into pellets and shipped to European power plants, mostly to Drax power station in the U.K.

The growing transatlantic trade is being financed with billions of dollars in European climate subsidies because of a regulatory loophole that allows wood energy to count as if it’s as clean as solar or wind energy, when in reality it’s often worse for the climate than burning coal. Only the pollution released when wood pellets are produced and transported is counted on climate ledgers. Actual pollution from the smokestack — by far the greatest source of carbon pollution from wood energy — is overlooked.

[...]

The proposed rules were released just a few months after the commission released a 361-page warning about the risks to the climate and American wildlife from the growing use of wood in the continent’s power plants.

“They’re acknowledging that there’s an issue there, but they’re not taking immediate action,” said David Carr, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, which is one of the environmental groups in Europe and the U.S. uniting in a campaign to oppose most wood energy. They have been pushing for new rules that could halt the use of subsidized wood for electricity in Europe after 2020. “It’s a big disappointment.”

A Climate Central analysis last year found that switching from coal to wood increased carbon dioxide emissions at Drax power station in rural England by 15 to 20 percent for each megawatt produced.

[...]



[...]

Click here to read full article.

See also: Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change





The Global Warming continues into 2017,..

Unabated.

the blogs got the co observatory on mauna loa. i believe it is on mauna kea. its twin.
Quoting 389. Patrap:




The Global Warming continues into 2017,..

Unabated.

Or rather, with the usual accelerating acceleration (Keeling Curve!), be it reflected tempwise in a few percent of the climate system called the atmosphere, or elsewhere in the system.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
356 am CST Mon Jan 2 2017

Short term...big batch of rain yesterday finally pushed east out of
the area late last evening. A few additional storms developed over
the extreme northwest of the County Warning Area but by 9z lifted north. Other than
maybe a few isltd shra we should be quite through the rest of the
early morning hrs but additional activity could develop near coastal
MS around 12-15z.

Main forecast concern is on severe potential today. Potent S/W and
the cause of our issues today was quickly pushing into central Texas by
9z. This S/W will approach the arklatex late this morning/midday and
we should begin to feel its influence. A weak sfc low will develop
with the S/W over the arklatex and lift northeast into central Tennessee
overnight tonight. Main band of strong to severe storms should
approach the region from the around 18z and push through the area
over the next 6-9 hrs. There could also be a few developing storms
earlier today near the MS coast as another impulse currently moving
northeast through the wrn Gulf approaches this area.

Thermodynamically we should have a favorable environment which is
not typically the case for our cool season severe, at least in Jan.
Cooling aloft will lead to a rather steep mid lvl lapse rate, now
expected to be at or even greater than 7 c/km. Showalters will
bottom out around -4 to -5c and with daytime heating we should see
MLCAPE values approach 1500 j/kg. The one issue that we usually have
to contend with is the marine layer and this could be an issue
again. Near shore waters are relatively cool and how far north this
marine layer penetrates before it moderates could be key. The
enhanced risk is not all the way to the coast and this is likely one
feature why it was nudged north, the other is that the stronger
support will be across the northern half of the County Warning Area especially the
the northwestern portions. Latest hrrr runs have trended with little
to no activity south of I 10 in la and it could be the marine layer
leading to this.

The wind field is still quite favorable but doesn't appear as strong
as the previous nights run. We will still be in a very favorable
spot with respect to the upper jet. Again possibly a coupled jet
structure right over the region with very impressive divergence
aloft. This could lead to storms developing rapidly especially if
any can fire ahead of the main line. 500 mb winds of 50-60kts will still
lift northeast through the area while and impressive h7 southwest
jet of around 50kts traverses the region. The ll jet is not as
strong as previously expected but 40-45kts out of the S to SSW is
still more than sufficient. This wind field is providing ample shear
with 0-6km bulk shear of 50kts along with 0-1 and 0-3 srh of around
200 m2/s2. This should support rotating storms but with that h7 jet
bringing with it a very strong dry punch the wind risk appears to be
the greatest and a considerable concern.

Main fail modes today would be the marine layer and if there are no
real breaks in the clouds and/or more shra activity early which
leads to lower instability. Another issue would be if the S/W moves
a tad further north thus providing less support.

Activity should quickly push east late this afternoon/early this
evening and we will begin to dry out west to east overnight. /Cab/

Long term...medium range models continue to disagree. Model
consistency has not been very good and continuity has been terrible.
European model (ecmwf) and GFS continues to show 20-40 degree differences in the fcst
around Fri and Sat. Main issue is in how the two handle the energy
over the pac northwest. GFS again wants to break it off from the l/west and
closes the low off the or/Washington coast. This allows the trough to
amplify and send the colder air down sooner, probably Thu. European model (ecmwf)
shears the energy out with zonal flow over the our region through
early Fri. One difference from prev night is the European model (ecmwf) now does
amplify the l/west trough late Fri finally sending the cold air south
for the weekend. The GFS quickly tries to moderate with a rather
warm start to the weekend. Like yesterday confidence is very low and
will use a blend of the models. Either way decently cold air will be
on the way at some point later this week. One thing to note if the
European model (ecmwf) is right like previous forecaster mentioned there could be a
threat of some wintry precip, sleet/graupel of possibly freezing
rain. This will remain out of the forecast for now until the models
can get a better handle on all of the pac energy coming in. /Cab/

&&


 


												
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good, another plant question! There's nothing much in the "weeds" category to be releasing pollen right now across most of CONUS, but several species of Juniper (what many Americans call "cedar") release copious wind-borne pollen from Dec to Apr. Depending on which way the wind blows, that means people in the Midwest and New England can suffer Juniper allergies in the dead of winter from pollen blown all the way from W and SW states.

Quoting 303. ChiThom:

I just logged on to WU to find a local allergy alert due to weeds! Is this even possible? It has been warm lately, i.e above freezing...yesterday was 47°F. briefly at 11:00 a.m.
Hello 1-1-17; what surprises do you have in store for us this year?
Quoting 394. ToesInTheWater:

Good, another plant question!



Actually, that was posted in weather alerts as being weeds causing the pollen spike. The post has been removed, so I can't show it to you now. :/