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A Christmas Day Typhoon Headed for the Philippines

By: Jeff Masters 6:31 PM GMT on December 23, 2016

Celebrations of Christmas Day in the Philippines this year will have to occur amid emergency declarations as Typhoon Nock-ten puts a huge lump of coal into the stockings of residents of the main Philippine Island of Luzon. Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that Nock-ten was undergoing rapid intensification. A prominent eye was developing, surrounded by an intense ring of eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. With Nock-ten experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and traversing very warm waters of 29°C (84°F), which were 1°C (1.8°F) above average, intensification into a Category 4 storm by Sunday appears likely. Unfortunately, the storm is on track to pass over a very heavily populated area of the Philippines, including the capital of Manila.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Nock-ten taken at approximately 06 UTC December 24, 2016. At the time, Nock-ten was a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds, approaching the Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

A rare out-of-season typhoon for the Philippines
Strong typhoons are rare in December in the Philippines. According to NOAA’s historical hurricane archive, only seven major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity have hit the Philippines in December:

Category 4 Typhoon Harriet on December 31, 1959 (145 mph winds)
Category 3 Typhoon Opal on December 14, 1964 (115 mph winds)
Category 4 Typhoon Nanmadol on December 2, 2004 (135 mph winds)
Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit on December 6, 2014 (125 mph winds)
Category 5 Typhoon Gilda on December 18, 1959 (160 mph winds)
Category 4 Typhoon Manny on December 9, 1993 (130 mph winds)
Category 5 Typhoon Bopha on December 3, 2012 (170 mph winds)

The Philippines—a heavily Catholic nation—is having a bad run of luck for typhoons hitting on major holy days. Just last year, the Philippines suffered their first typhoon ever recorded on Easter Sunday—Typhoon Maysak. Fortunately, Maysak was weakening rapidly at landfall, and caused no deaths or major damage. Nock-ten will be just the third typhoon on record to hit the Philippines on Christmas Day. The others were Category 2 Typhoon Lee in 1981 and Category 2 Typhoon Jean in 1947. The worst tropical cyclone in world history to strike on Christmas Day was Category 3 Cyclone Tracy, which devastated Darwin, Australia in 1974, killing 71 people and destroying 80% of the homes in the city.

Have a safe and happy holiday, everyone, and I’ll be back with an update on Nock-ten this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Bad break for the Philippines.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Merry Christmas to you and your family! And a Merry Christmas to Mr Henson and his family. Thanks for all the work on the blog for our enjoyment and it's information.
Have a merry Christmas Doc..Mr Henson too.
Speaking of the Philippines I heard a story on NPR this morning about a bunch of Filipino mariners who are stuck on ships anchored off of Victoria, BC, Canada because of the bankruptcy of Hanjin shipping. The crewmen are not allowed to leave the ships and the ships are not allowed to leave so they're stuck there. I think they've been there for about 6 months so far. The local Victoria Filipino population has put together a Christmas package for them that included a couple of roast pigs delivered by charter boat.
A Very Merry Christmas to all my WU friends!
Soo Cal is preparing for Round/Storm #2 for tonight and tomorrow! Storm #1 left 1.26" rain at mi casa.





Friday night through Saturday a winter storm will bring widespread, and heavy at times, precipitation. Heavy snow will be possible in the mountains above roughly 5000 feet, with lighter snow and less accumulation down to around 3000 feet. There will be a potential for flooding, especially near recent wildfire burn scars. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates to this storm situation!
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
410 AM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...

.A COLD WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...THEN DECREASE AND
END FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 TO
7500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
TONIGHT...3500 TO 4000 FEET SATURDAY...AND AROUND 3000 FEET FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY...AND
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CAZ056-058-232015-
/O.UPG.KSGX.WS.A.0005.161224T0000Z-161225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KSGX.WS.W.0004.161224T0600Z-161225T1100Z/
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...JULIAN...PINE VALLEY
410 AM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 AM PST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW LEVELS...INITIALLY 6000 TO 7000 FEET THIS EVENING...
LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO 3000 TO
3500 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* TIMING...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...DECREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW 4000 FEET...4 TO 8
INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE
5000 FEET.

* WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN SWITCH TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 70 MPH
NEAR MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS ONTO THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

* VISIBILITY...LOCALLY REDUCED AT TIMES IN SNOW...BLOWING
SNOW...AND FOG.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
MOUNTAIN PASSES OF INTERSTATE 8 MAY BE IMPACTED WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST ROAD REPORTS
BEFORE DEPARTING. ALWAYS CARRY CHAINS AND TAKE EXTRA FOOD AND
CLOTHING IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Thanks for the new blog entry, although with bad news for the Philippines!

May the "kingfisher" behave when visiting during holidays, really! ("Nock-ten" in Lao language means "kingfisher).

Why can't we have epic names like that in the Atlantic.
Here's what is on the way per San Diego NWS Forecasters

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 AM PST Fri Dec 23 2016

...Strong winter storm system tonight and Saturday...

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies with a few showers and areas of fog will continue
today. A strong cold storm system will move through southern
California tonight and Saturday and bring moderate to heavy rainfall
with snow in the mountains. Strong gusty winds will occur mainly in
the mountains and deserts this afternoon through Saturday, but
somewhat strong winds will occur at the coast as well. Partly cloudy
but cool weather will return Sunday with a slow warming trend likely
for the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Widespread clouds with areas of drizzle and light showers were
continuing at mid-morning. Areas of fog were occurring the mountains
and also the deserts. Not much change will occur today as we remain
in a moist airmass under the southerly flow aloft ahead of the
approaching storm system.

The center of the trough is currently about 300 miles west of San
Francisco, and rain is occurring across a lot of central California.
Models are too slow with the onset of the rain in the southern areas
as the mostly had the rainfall staying just along the west coast of
Santa Barbara County with more steady rain from San Luis Obispo
County north through 10 AM, but already the radar shows precip
moving over Santa Barbaba County. Hence the precip should start a
little earlier over Orange County than what the models show,
especially with saturation already in place to 800 MB. Hence, timing
of onset of significant precip should be around 6 PM in NW Orange
County and by midnight over the mountains and into the deserts of
San Diego County. Rainfall amounts still look to be one to locally
two inches west of the mountains with local 2-3 inch totals in the
mountains. Since moisture extends to above 500 MB with the front,
some of the precip will extend into the deserts, with around 1/4
inch in the lower deserts and 1/2 inch in the high deserts. With the
front, rainfall rates could reach or even exceed 1/2 inch per hour.
Also, with 500 mb temps below -25 deg C Saturday, there could be a
few thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall. The snow level will
fall from about 6500 feet with the onset of the precip this evening
to 4000 feet by Saturday morning and 3000 feet by late Saturday with
the colder air moving in. With moisture at times above the -10 C
level, dendritic snow crystals could form to increase snowfall
amounts in the mountains. Overall, expect about a foot, locally
higher above 7000 feet, 8-12 inches in the 5500-6000 foot levels and
up to 4 inches around 4000 feet through early Saturday night. Expect
strong winds at time in the mountains and deserts, with the focus on
San Bernardino County through late evening with the southerly flow
and then gradually Riverside and San Diego Counties late tonight and
Saturday as the flow becomes more westerly. Local gusts over 70 MPH
will be possible, mainly from the mountain crests north and east to
the desert mountain slopes.

After this storm moves east, a closed low dives south off the
California coast and to a point around 600 miles to our west Monday.
The 00Z ECWMF had the low approaching far northern Baja California
Tuesday, which could bring some showers to the area. Other models
have the low staying to our southwest until late in the week, mostly
Thursday night or Friday. Depending on what 12Z ECMWF says when it
arrives, I may add some chances of precip at some point next week.
There should be a gradual warming trend next week after a chilly
start, partly due to offshore flow, which could bring temps back
into the 70s west of the mountains by around Tue or Wed.
Ex-Cyclone Yvette is moving towards WA and may reintensify before landfall on the west Kimberley coast on Sunday.


Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST December 24 2016
============================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nock-ten (955 hPa) located at 13.0N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 13.5N 126.8E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.5N 123.6E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Overland Luzon - Camarines Sur province
72 HRS: 14.3N 118.8E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea
Quoting 7. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Soo Cal is preparing for Round/Storm #2 for tonight and tomorrow! Storm #1 left 1.26" rain at mi casa.





Friday night through Saturday a winter storm will bring widespread, and heavy at times, precipitation. Heavy snow will be possible in the mountains above roughly 5000 feet, with lighter snow and less accumulation down to around 3000 feet. There will be a potential for flooding, especially near recent wildfire burn scars. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates to this storm situation!


Storm #1 left 1.19" with us in Jurupa Valley, CA. Sun was out briefly and it is currently 59.4F...
Still hoping for a White Christmas. Best Chance for me at my elevation of 3,500 feet will be after the cold front comes thru during the overnight hours and the cold air moves in Sat am-pm in post frontal showers.......just hoping for a few late showers Sat night and will have a White Christmas Sunday!

I hope you all don't get mad at me for posting so much about "our" storms here in Soo Cal.....they are just so far and few between and all are important. Don't know if all realize it but when we get a 1"-2" storm in San Diego County, that amount is like 15-30% of our ANNUAL rainfall of 9.75" in San Diego.........The last 2 storms have dropped 4.06" out here in my mountain location where annual rainfall is like double San Diego's 9.75"............and now we have a Storm #3 for December and forecast is for another 1"-3" of rain in mountains with all snow above 6,000-6,500 feet and then the snow level lowering quickly which is when I hope for mine. A Merry Christmas to all!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you, Doc.

And to all the WU people, as well.
A rare Christmas Super Typhoon in the making?

"THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER,
NEAR TAU 24." JTWC discussion.

Current windstorm Barbara north of Scotland:


And below is the Christmas tree, Barb is trying to knock over. (Click the pic.twitter.com link).


BBL, as I'm now out for a kind of office party, lol. Afterwards probably doing this.

BTW, looking at the German surface map for tomorrow, this is a real European storm naming chaos:


(Click to enlarge).
Storm named "Antje" in Germany, is called "Barbara" in the UK and battering Scotland at present, while German storm "Barbara", currently developing far out in the Atlantic and affecting Britain over Christmas, will be called "Connor" in the UK. Everything clear?
Satellite presentation looks like it is strengthening.....hope it weakens as forecast before the P.I.



WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 527 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN, BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL, AND WRAP TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 11-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. TY NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED RI. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AFTER TAU 36, AND
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN
LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER,
NEAR TAU 24.
Quoting 15. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I hope you all don't get mad at me for posting so much about "our" storms here in Soo Cal.....


Heck no. Surprised you even remember what rain is :D

Hopefully it will continue and significant improvement will start showing up in the analyses. Here in OK, we have been getting rain on a somewhat regular basis. Just not enough.

Quoting 15. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I hope you all don't get mad at me for posting so much about "our" storms here in Soo Cal.....they are just so far and few between and all are important.

I get mad cause we continue to get the short end of the stick here in SEAZ with these storms heh.. Forcasted: .75" - 1.25". What we got: .25" It's alright though, you guys need it more then we do.
Quoting 15. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Still hoping for a White Christmas. Best Chance for me at my elevation of 3,500 feet will be after the cold front comes thru during the overnight hours and the cold air moves in Sat am-pm in post frontal showers.......just hoping for a few late showers Sat night and will have a White Christmas Sunday!

I hope you all don't get mad at me for posting so much about "our" storms here in Soo Cal.....they are just so far and few between and all are important. Don't know if all realize it but when we get a 1"-2" storm in San Diego County, that amount is like 15-30% of our ANNUAL rainfall of 9.75" in San Diego.........The last 2 storms have dropped 4.06" out here in my mountain location where annual rainfall is like double San Diego's 9.75"............and now we have a Storm #3 for December and forecast is for another 1"-3" of rain in mountains with all snow above 6,000-6,500 feet and then the snow level lowering quickly which is when I hope for mine. A Merry Christmas to all!


Merry Christmas. I have been happy to read the updates on rain for Soo Cal. Good luck getting a few flurries to make Christmas spirits bright.
Hi & Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays! It's raining in S C IL too Ped & HHJoe, but only 38 at moment. (Keep posting SoCal weather Joe, always happy to hear you guys getting precip.) Should be upper 50s as the bigger push comes in this weekend, possibly with boomers. Hopefully will melt the remaining ice from the somewhat surprise freezing rain we had last Fri night. Not heavy fortunately, but made for a slippery walk home from the party. Pressure is going back towards 30" again, Monday it hit 30.7, down near 30 on Tues/Wed and was back near 30.4" yesterday.

How close will Nock-ten be to Tacloban? I'm guessing N a little since Manila has to worry?

Some change in Eastern Central California... for the better...
Bigger view can see both storms. 2 tropical systems at landfall on Christmas Day....what are the odds math folks?

Quoting 24. PedleyCA:


Some change in Eastern Central California... for the better...


These last 2 storms should help a tad!
Quoting 19. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Satellite presentation looks like it is strengthening.....hope it weakens as forecast before the P.I.




Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 13.5N 126.8E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines (southeast of Catanduanes)
48 HRS: 13.5N 123.6E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Overland Luzon - Camarines Sur province

might depend what happens when it get closer to Cantanduanes how much it will weaken before the landfall time near Camarines Sur.

Edit: JTWC has a different path than JMA, I see.
Madness , madness ...........

really hope nock ten weakens before landfall
HurricaneHunterJoe

I hope you all don't get mad at me for posting so much about "our" storms here in Soo Cal.....they are just so far and few between and all are important.

On the contrary , we've all been been watching that drought tap dance on all your heads , and how it's bending the the entire state.
Floods drown, winds shred, drought grinds things to dust.

California Forests Failing to Regrow After Intense Wildfires:

There are warning signs that some forests in the western U.S. may have a hard time recovering from the large and intense wildfires that have become more common as the climate warms.

After studying 14 burned areas across 10 national forests in California, scientists from UC Davis and the U.S. Forest Service said recent fires have killed so many mature, seed-producing trees across such large areas that the forests can’t re-seed themselves. And because of increasingly warm temperatures, burned areas are quickly overgrown by shrubs, which can prevent trees from taking root




The Dresden Striezelmarkt (Christmas market) Germany

The location is hundreds of years old.

img src="">





India -
Forest fires more than doubled in 2016 in State: Report

While Karnataka saw 295 incidents in 2015, it reported 830 fires this year

With pre-monsoon showers largely failing and summer temperature touching a record high, the number of forest fires in the State has more than doubled over the past year.


Link
Nationally, fires detected rose by over 55 per cent, but in Karnataka it was a 181 per cent rise.

Yet another factoid , pointing to a nonlinear world we are entering .
This is What The Resistance Looks Like — Cities, States and Nations Run on 100 Percent Renewable Power

The sparks of resistance to a harmful domination of energy supplies by the fossil fuel industry are out there. They are the lights of clean power generation blooming like stars across a world blackened by smokestack emissions and imperiled by climate change.

Link
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1228 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...

.A COLD WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...THEN DECREASE AND
END FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 TO
7500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
TONIGHT...3500 TO 4000 FEET SATURDAY...AND AROUND 3000 FEET BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY...AND FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ALONG PARTS OF INTERSTATE
8 IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 15 OVER CAJON
PASS SATURDAY.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TYPHOON NINA
5:00 AM PhST December 24 2016
==============================

Nina has intensified into a typhoon as it continues to move in a west northward direction

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina (NOCK-TEN) [970 hPa] located at 13.1N 129.5E or 475 km east northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
=================
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
-----------------
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Albay
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands

Visayas Region
------------------
Northern Samar
Eastern Samar

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy rains within its 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

TY "NINA" is expected to intensify further before making landfall.

It is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by Sunday (Dec. 25) afternoon or evening.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, southern Luzon and Visayas.
A day in Soo Cal Weather History BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!





I pulled into Nazareth, I was feelin' about half past dead
Just need to find a place where I can lay my head
"Hey, mister, can you tell me where a man might find a bed?"
He just grinned and shook my hand and, "No", was all he said
Take a load off Fannie
Take a load for free
Take a load off Anny
And you put the load right on me
(You put the load right on me)
I picked up my bag and I went lookin' for a place to hide
When I saw Carmen and the Devil walkin' side by side
And I said, "Hey, Carmen, come on, would you go downtown"
And she said, "Well, I gotta go but my friend can stick around"
And take a load off Anny
Take a load for free
Take a load off Anny
And you put the load right on me
(You put the load right on me)
Go down,…






Quoting 35. RobertWC:

This is What The Resistance Looks Like %u2014 Cities, States and Nations Run on 100 Percent Renewable Power

The sparks of resistance to a harmful domination of energy supplies by the fossil fuel industry are out there. They are the lights of clean power generation blooming like stars across a world blackened by smokestack emissions and imperiled by climate change.

Link


I sure hope we get this right.......it seems like a no brainer to me but when big $$$ involved, it seems things take a turn for the worse. JMO There has to be a " happy " medium?
#39

Excellent "Band"!
The rise of "Smoky the Bear" .

Much has been made of America's wild land fire fighting policy in the West over the last 100 years, and it certainly cut against what the forests were trying to tell us.

But India didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Indonesia didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Brazil didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Canada didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Siberia didn't have "Smoky the Bear", East Tenn. didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Australia didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Israel didn't have "Smoky the Bear", so there must be something else at work here.

Bad forest management in all these places for 100 years isn't the common key. Drought and heat are. Trust me, ain't nobody been out in the taiga in Canada, and Siberia for the last 100 years putting out fires. They didn't have to. The forests were wet and cold.

So let's all give "Smoky the Bear" a break . The rise of these world wide fires , has our finger prints all over it . But not because of "Smoky the Bear".
Human greed and human folly OK. But not "Smoky the Bear".
India sparked this series , get this -

Parliamentary Standing Committee recommends a national policy on managing blazes

With fires raging across Central Indian forests and the Himalayan Pine forests, the frequency of such blazes has risen by a drastic 55 per cent in the past year.

The number has touched 24,817 in 2016, a “really alarming” rise, from around 15,937 fires in 2015, says the report by Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science and Technology, headed by Rajya Sabha MP Renuka Choudhary, submitted on December 16. The committee has suggested a national policy on managing forest fires.

The increase is seen even though 2015, considered a drought year, had seen a decline in frequency of forest fires of around 16 per cent.


Link
Quoting 42. RobertWC:

The rise of "Smoky the Bear" .

Much has been made of America's wild land fire fighting policy in the West over the last 100 years, and it certainly cut against what the forests were trying to tell us.

But India didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Indonesia didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Brazil didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Canada didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Siberia didn't have "Smoky the Bear", East Tenn. didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Australia didn't have "Smoky the Bear", Israel didn't have "Smoky the Bear", so there must be something else at work here.

Bad forest management in all these places for 100 years isn't the common key. Drought and heat are. Trust me, ain't nobody been out in the taiga in Canada, and Siberia for the last 100 years putting out fires. They didn't have to. The forests were wet and cold.

So let's all give "Smoky the Bear" a break . The rise of these world wide fires , has our finger prints all over it . But not because of "Smoky the Bear".
Human greed and human folly OK. But not "Smoky the Bear".

Good point, but some forests DO show a long history of periodic burning, including northern Rocky Mountain Lodgepole pine, southern Rocky Mountain Ponderosa pine, and Sierra Nevada Ponderosa and Jeffrey Pine forests. I understand some SE US swampland likes occasional burning, as well. Drought and heat, as well as human occupation of more and more forest land, certainly makes it difficult to conduct broadcast burns, or let lightning-caused wildfires burn.
I mean how many BILLIONS or TRILLIONS have we ( USA ) wasted in our annual government budgets over many many years? Programs that really didn't help people or the country as a whole. Money that could and IMO should have been spent on infrastructure and technology advancement in conjuction with the private sector for renewables. We could be much farther along but for the cheap cost of oil.

Shooting for 100% renewable energy is a good thing but not really feasible right now. Go for 50% now until we solve all the issues like energy storage, transportation, costs, but move forward these goals at full speed. Companies can make profits with renewables. Clean air,water can be a result of less oil,natural gas,coal and are what we want.

Like I said, seems like a no brainer to me.........I do not wish to see more offshore oil rigs off California's coast. OK, Bash away, but's it's not political with me......for me it's just common sense.
39. Patrap

Last Sunday Morning CBS interviewed Robertson . Levon never forgive him for band breaking up.

It broke my heart.

My favorite member Garth , here he is with the Call -

LET THE DAY BEGIN - THE CALL

Quoting 45. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I mean how many BILLIONS or TRILLIONS have we ( USA ) wasted in our annual government budgets over many many years? Programs that really didn't help people or the country as a whole. Money that could and IMO should have been spent on infrastructure and technology advancement in conjuction with the private sector for renewables. We could be much farther along but for the cheap cost of oil.

Shooting for 100% renewable energy is a good thing but not really feasible right now. Go for 50% now until we solve all the issues like energy storage, transportation, costs, but move forward these goals at full speed. Companies can make profits with renewables. Clean air,water can be a result of less oil,natural gas,coal and are what we want.

Like I said, seems like a no brainer to me.........I do not wish to see more offshore oil rigs off California's coast. OK, Bash away, but's it's not political with me......for me it's just common sense.


Common sense? That went out the door with facts, logic, and critical thinking. In the US today, you need to come up with some bat-guano crazy conspiracy. Something along the lines of: "Muslims are injecting nano-bots into their oil and fossil fuels to control our brains so their evil alien masters can farm us for our precious bodily fluids! Get off oil now!"

On a more serious note, this new pattern in the arctic that's been occurring during winter might just be a sign we've reached a tipping point. Two years back to back with a similar pattern, only this year it's worse. Interesting times.
My goodness. Checking in late night and looking at the first daylight visuals of Nock-ten: this thyphoon really became a beauty last night, will mean a very dangerous storm. Cat 4 for sure. The poor Philippines!





Saved pics. Click them to enlarge. Source.
Quoting 41. HurricaneHunterJoe:

#39

Excellent "Band"!


I concur, I caught them in the 90s a few years before Danko died, no Robbie but still a great show.

My father went to secondary school with and was a friend of Garth Hudson, he once told me how Garth would have his friends over and fire off his father's guns in a makeshift range in his basement.
Nock-Ten




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 DEC 2016 Time : 231000 UTC
Lat : 13:16:11 N Lon : 129:13:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 956.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.2 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : 6.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.7 degrees



Quoting 47. Xyrus2000:




On a more serious note, this new pattern in the arctic that's been occurring during winter might just be a sign we've reached a tipping point. Two years back to back with a similar pattern, only this year it's worse. Interesting times.


Ii's not noise any more , too many other systems sending the same signals all saying the same thing. Mr. Trump will a have lot on his plate.
Common sense isn't so common.
Climate Change Indicators in the United States - 2016


Latest (last?) annual Climate Change Indicators report by the EPA, with dozens of sections on the various observables.

Quoting 49. barbamz:

My goodness. Checking in late night and looking at the first daylight visuals of Nock-ten: this thyphoon really became a beauty last night, will mean a very dangerous storm. Cat 4 for sure. The poor Philippines!





Saved pics. Click them to enlarge. Source.


It sure did! Still strengthening which is BAD! Hope it weakens as forecasted. Just what the P.I. need is another strong Tropical Cyclone! ( NOT ) And on Christmas Day for it's citizens who are 90-95% Catholic/Christian.
Quoting 54. no1der:

Climate Change Indicators in the United States - 2016


Latest (last?) annual Climate Change Indicators report by the EPA, with dozens of sections on the various observables.




We still have a EPA? Is that the department that Perry from Texas will run? No, I think he will be Energy Secretary? OMG! Why do I have a bad feeling about all this?
That is a beautiful 11 mile and looks to be shrinking stadium effect eye! Too bad it currently comes with 120mph winds! Sure hope Nock-ten weakens and becomes just a windy rainstorm.

Folks, have to check out for the next days. You know: Christmas, family, services, presents, dinners ...
Have a great time, everyone on WU, including our blog masters and staff, peaceful and friendly. And thoughts to all those who aren't that lucky, weatherwise especially to the Philippines with Nock-ten knocking on their door.


Picture I took on one of the very rare clear days in this December in Mainz, showing our 1000 years old cathedral after sunset (click to enlarge)

BTW, PR department of our cherished Euro model published an interesting review of its achievements in 2016:
ECMWF: News highlights of 2016
ECMWF, 21 December 2016

Good night with this. Best wishes. See you next week, I hope.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center has centerline of forecast track of Nock-ten over water until it hits Luzon Island and just north of Manilla.



While Japan Meteorological Agency has it further south and going over a lot of land before Manilla

Quoting 31. Grothar:

The Dresden Striezelmarkt (Christmas market) Germany

The location is hundreds of years old.

img src="">








Older than the USA.
HRWF Model

Sitting right on top of Manilla if model is correct

My 19 year old thinks he's coming after work to eat leftovers from last night. Problem is, I ate it all.
Quoting 59. Patrap:

We could use Heavenly offerings this evening for Her.


Carrie Fisher Reportedly Has Heart Attack On Airplane
The 60-year-old actress is reportedly in critical condition.
12/23/2016 04:29 pm ET | Updated 16 minutes ago




I know critical condition is bad, but I'm glad there's still hope.
130 knots (1 min)

Japan Meteorological Agency
9:00 AM JST December 24 2016
================================


Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nock-ten (915 hPa) located at 13.1N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 13.4N 126.1E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.6N 122.1E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Luzon - Marinduque province
72 HRS: 14.8N 117.6E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea
Quoting 52. RobertWC:



Ii's not noise any more , too many other systems sending the same signals all saying the same thing. Mr. Trump will a have lot on his plate.

Here's hoping the main course is crow.

TY 1626 (Nock-ten)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 24 December 2016


Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°05' (13.1°)
E128°55' (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)


115mph Gusting to 161mph
915mb
West at 11.5mph

NOT GOOD!




69. vis0
Posted as to the flow of the last blogbytes closing page.
Link to a little humor a ditty plus opinions of mine near the end of the last cat6® blogbyte

=====================================

TOPIC RELATED::
Of course the "bad luck" when adjusted by logic creates a more clear picture. This clarity being as to a warmer Atmospheres adding to the odds that we see a more odd Tropical storms be it as to timing and area.
Prayers to pass on wisdom.  Celebrate the holidays yet do it with the ability to survive so one can either celebarite later (after the storm) and/or help those in need to show the good that  humans can accomplish during trying times.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC YVETTE (07U)
9:08 AM WST December 24 2016
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Yvette (993 hPa) located at 15.3S 118.7E or 480 km northwest of Broome and 500 km northwest of Bidyadanga has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Yvette is moving toward the southeast and is expected to reach the West Kimberley coast on Christmas Day. It is now unlikely to re-develop into a tropical cyclone.

A period of Damaging Winds remains possible to the north of the system as it approaches and crosses the coast during Christmas Day. The areas affected by these winds includes Broome and Bidyadanga from Sunday morning through to Sunday evening. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning (IDW20033) for further details.

Heavy rainfall associated with this system is expected to be confined mostly on and to the east of the track. Please refer to the Flood Warning for the West Kimberley District for further details.

Forecast Track Maps will continue to be issued every 6 hours until the system has crossed the coast.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 16.4S 120.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.8S 121.3E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 20.6S 124.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 26.0S 129.3E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
===================
Ex-TC Yvette is moving towards the Western Australia mainland and is now unlikely to re-intensify prior to making landfall.

The system was located using microwave and visible satellite imagery.

Yvette continues to be under the influence of strong shear and dry air though shear has reduced slightly to 20-25 knots. The 2254 UTC SSMIS image showed almost an absence of deep convection to the west. After that and during the morning, some convection has developed to the west and northwest of the system, well removed from the center.

An ASCAT pass at 1323 UTC showed an area of gales to the northeast of the system center aided by the monsoonal flow.

The system has been assigned max winds of 35 knots [in the northwest and northeast quadrants] though it remains below tropical cyclone intensity due to the lack of gales wrapping more than halfway around the center. DVORAK: Shear analysis gives DT's of 2.0. MET/PAT was 1.5 with W trend. FT/CI set to 2.0.

Numerical Weather Prediction is consistent with a steady southeast track towards the coast. Wind shear may reduce as the system approaches the coast and some Numerical Weather Prediction have the system intensifying prior to landfall but given the current analysis and unfavorable conditions, the system is unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The most likely scenario is that a period of strong to gale force winds occurs north of the system as it crosses the West Kimberley coast. Soon after landfall the system weakens significantly. The passage of the system is likely to bring heavy rainfall and possible flooding to the West Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
The Tropical Cyclone Watch for Cape Leveque to De Grey, including Broome Western Australia has been cancelled
The website is still as slow as molasses.
Galactic hurricane? Look at those feeder bands. There's a pin hole eye in there I just know it.
Quoting 73. washingaway:

Galactic hurricane? Look at those feeder bands. There's a pin hole eye in there I just know it.



A big black hole is probably in the center there eating everything in site. Very beautiful though from far away!
Quoting 71. MahFL:

The website is still as slow as molasses.


As usual :)
The NGHC says this is still an open wave.
Typhoon Melor (Nona in the Philippines) made landfall as a category 4 last year in December too. Not sure why it's not in the NOAA's hurricane archive.

Typhoon Phyllis in 1987 may be another one. It apparantly hit as a cateogry 3 but can't find any solid info on it except an old article stating peak winds of 80mph.
Nock-ten's eye seems to be getting smaller and smaller. Hope it can do a ERC prior to landfall and weaken some.

Round/Storm #2 will start in a few hours.........here's what we have to look FORWARD to in Soo Cal.



NWS San Diego has bumped up the rain totals a tad



Will report in during the storm . Have a good night all!
Cold front heading southeast thru Soo Cal
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
739 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

CAC083-240530-
/O.NEW.KLOX.FA.Y.0061.161224T0339Z-161224T0530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Santa Barbara CA-
739 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

The National Weather Service in OXNARD has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Southern Santa Barbara County in southwestern California...
Including the recent burn areas...

* Until 930 PM PST

* At 730 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rain across
Southern Santa Barbara County. Heavy rain caused widespread roadway
flooding across the advisory area during the past couple of hours. Additional
moderate to heavy rain moving into the south coast and Santa Ynez Mountains
will maintain the threat of urban roadway and small stream flooding as well
as rockslides through 930 pm. At 730 pm, rainfall rates of one quarter to
one third of an inch have been observed, but locally higher rates will be
possible near thunderstorms. In addition, there will be the potential for
minor mud and debris flows in recent burn areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Santa Barbara...Montecito...Santa Ynez...Carpinteria...
Summerland...Rincon Point...El Capitan State Beach...Goleta...
as well as the Canyon...Sherpa...and Rey Burn Areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is
harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Move away from recently burned areas. The heavy rains will likely trigger
rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep terrain, especially in
and around these areas.
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
717 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

CAC111-240630-
/O.CON.KLOX.FA.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-161224T0630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Ventura CA-
717 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1030 PM PST FOR VENTURA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE RECENT BURN AREAS...

At 705 PM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain across nearly all of Ventura County. Rainfall rates
of 0.50 inches per hour to 0.80 inches per hour have been
reported in many areas. Several cars have been reported stuck
in flooding in the city of Ventura. A thunderstorm has been
reported in Simi Valley.

The rain will continue to cause widespread ponding of water on
area roadways and flooding of low lying areas and
intersections and at least minor mud and debris flows in
and near the recent burn areas, and in some other mountain
locations. The Springs Burn area will be especially vulnerable
to mud and debris flows within the next hour.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the burn areas
through the night for the potential for more significant
mud and debris flows.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
Hello guys. Been a while. Happy Holidays.
Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
702 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

.A STRONG WINTER STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING PERIODS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

CAZ055-060-241400-
/O.CON.KSGX.WI.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-161225T0600Z/
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIG BEAR CITY...BIG BEAR LAKE...
WRIGHTWOOD...VICTORVILLE...HESPERIA...APPLE VALLEY
702 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...AREAS OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 55 MPH. BRIEF GUSTS TO 70 MPH NEAR MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS.

* TIMING...WINDS STRENGTHENING TONIGHT WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATION...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS AND ALONG
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Storm #2 is starting, Forecast 1.04," Looking good for now...
Quoting 83. Andrebrooks:

Hello guys. Been a while. Happy Holidays.


Sup Andre! Merry Christmas!
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:


Storm #2 is starting, Forecast 1.04," Looking good for now...


Should be getting ya soon Ped....Good Luck! I figure another hour or 2 before it get through Orange County and gets to me.
Quoting 86. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Sup Andre! Merry Christmas!
I'm great. How are you. Yall finally getting action.
Im just hoping I get a few snow showers tomorrow afternoon and evening and it lasts for a White Christmas! Merry Christmas Pedley!
Quoting 88. Andrebrooks:

I'm great. How are you. Yall finally getting action.


Yup......this will be like the 3rd good storm in 10 days. 4.08 from first 2 and now they are saying 2-4" more with this storm.....we will see but hoping they are correct.
Andre, are you still in LA?
BLOG BE LAGGING! Let's get in the 21st century guys...lol
Quoting 89. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Im just hoping I get a few snow showers tomorrow afternoon and evening and it lasts for a White Christmas! Merry Christmas Pedley!


Merry Christmas to you too.
Quoting 93. PedleyCA:



Merry Christmas to you too.


Radar not showing again, I took the "s" out..
for some reason i cannot see the san diego nws radar loop....it says plugin did not load.....never had a problem before...kinda odd...it loads the last frame but no loop

End of problem, don't use the "WU" radar images....
i see that loop...thanks

8500 posts...... whoo-hoo...lol
you posted santa ana radar...cool
wind picking up here.......front getting closer
Quoting 71. MahFL:

The website is still as slow as molasses.

running uphill in January
This could be a gully washer is the Santa Monica mountains don't take it all for themselves...
Quoting 99. HurricaneHunterJoe:

you posted santa ana radar...cool


Posted San Diego too... again
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TYPHOON NINA
11:00 AM PhST December 24 2016
==============================

Nina has intensified further at it continues to move in a west northwestward direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina (NOCK-TEN) [963 hPa] located at 13.0N 128.6E or 80 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gustiness up to 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
=================
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
-----------------
Southern Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Albay
Sorsogon
Masbate including Ticao
Burias Island

Visayas Region
------------------
Northern Samar
Samar
Eastern Samar

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy rains within its 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

TY "NINA" is expected to intensify further before making landfall.

It is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by Sunday (Dec. 25) afternoon or evening.

Possible inclusion of Northern Quezon including Polillo Island, Marinduque and Romblon to areas with TCWS #1.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, southern Luzon and Visayas.
Good Night Peeps, gonna fall asleep listening to the raindrops.... Merry Christmas (or whatever) to All...
Night night Ped. Have you been getting any lately? (rain)
For immediate release: Gravitational wave alert!
Issued by: The Einstein Galactic Tsunami Center (EGTS)
Star date: 386.62

A galactic tsunami advisory has been issued for the Milkyway from point X=245597642467.98754332, Y= -432765444890887.65324988882, Z=3427544587976.99999999999999 extending out 100,000 light years. A Wave magnitude of 40 light years in height is expected to reach the effected area in 2.6 lights years. Spacetime effect is expected to be extreme. 983547/sec/sec


Quoting 69. vis0:

Posted as to the flow of the last blogbytes closing page.
Link to a little humor a ditty plus opinions of mine near the end of the last cat6® blogbyte

=====================================

TOPIC RELATED::
Of course the "bad luck" when adjusted by logic creates a more clear picture. This clarity being as to a warmer Atmospheres adding to the odds that we see a more odd Tropical storms be it as to timing and area.
Prayers to pass on wisdom.  Celebrate the holidays yet do it with the ability to survive so one can either celebarite later (after the storm) and/or help those in need to show the good that  humans can accomplish during trying times.


vis - re: your last post on the previous blog - truly inspired :) I had to read this line a few times, just as funny that last time as it was the first:

"just like in the near few-cha we'll have APPLE (a nokia company) holographic holiday displays, where every 30secs 1 of that years top 100 celebrated beliefs will have a/its preferred holographic presentation in front of every state capital building including the blank screen for those that have nothing to celebrate and the reflecting screen for those too busy with themselves. "
This weekend's winter storm in my little corner of the world:


A major winter storm will impact holiday travel across Utah tonight into Sunday. Winter driving conditions can be expected across all mountain routes tonight into Saturday afternoon. Starting Saturday evening, all valley and mountain routes will be impacted, with winter driving conditions expected for all areas including the St. George area. Worsening road conditions Saturday evening can be expected for the Wasatch Front and I-15 corridor, continuing into Sunday. Plan travel now!


A major winter storm will impact travel across the region Friday night into Sunday. Travel will be significantly impacted with this storm. Now is the time to adjust travel plans and prepare ahead of time. Put together a car travel survival kit. Include items such as blankets, flashlights with extra batteries, high-calorie snack foods such as dried fruit and granola, sand or cat litter, jumper cables, water containers, fully charged cell phone, extra pet supplies, extra clothes and a radio with extra batteries. If traveling Saturday or Sunday, plan for much longer travel times.
Quoting 111. LAbonbon:


A major winter storm will impact travel across the region Friday night into Sunday. Travel will be significantly impacted with this storm. Now is the time to adjust travel plans and prepare ahead of time. Put together a car travel survival kit. Include items such as blankets, flashlights with extra batteries, high-calorie snack foods such as dried fruit and granola, sand or cat litter, jumper cables, water containers, fully charged cell phone, extra pet supplies, extra clothes and a radio with extra batteries. If traveling Saturday or Sunday, plan for much longer travel times.

Wouldn't it be best to just stay home? I would never go out in major winter storm.
Quoting 54. no1der:

Climate Change Indicators in the United States - 2016


Latest (last?) annual Climate Change Indicators report by the EPA, with dozens of sections on the various observables.



Thanks for posting this. They've added some areas it appears. Also pretty easy to read and digest - relatively easy for laypersons to grasp the material. And I hope it's not the last one!
Quoting 111. LAbonbon:


A major winter storm will impact travel across the region Friday night into Sunday. Travel will be significantly impacted with this storm. Now is the time to adjust travel plans and prepare ahead of time. Put together a car travel survival kit. Include items such as blankets, flashlights with extra batteries, high-calorie snack foods such as dried fruit and granola, sand or cat litter, jumper cables, water containers, fully charged cell phone, extra pet supplies, extra clothes and a radio with extra batteries. If traveling Saturday or Sunday, plan for much longer travel times.


Some things to consider adding:

A crank radio is better than one that needs batteries and the one that will charge your cell phone is even better. Also, I found out the hard way that cold weather can kill batteries - like from 90% to 0%. I lost my cell phone and the backup battery I had while hiking in -2F weather. I was able to recharge them once I got back into a heated vehicle... but had I needed them while out in the wilderness....

I also like road flares as they can start a fire if you need to start a fire.

Sterno

Matches AND a lighter

Clothes - Don't forget extra gloves/hats.

Deicing fluid and an ice scraper.

Personally, I carry extra parts for a potential quick vehicle repair and the tools I would need to do it. It's easier in my truck than our small car, so I usually don't do too much for the car as space is limited.
Quoting 112. washingaway:


Wouldn't it be best to just stay home? I would never go out in major winter storm.
Sure, if it's possible. But lots of folks have to continue their regular lives as well. And with a holiday weekend, people are going to travel regardless of weather, if they already had planned to do so. I posted this as there was discussion a little while back when weathermanwannabe was planning his Christmas trip from Florida to New England, and was wondering what to put in his vehicle. It's a good idea to have a lot of this stuff in your car anyway, not just for a planned excursion.
Quoting 114. Dakster:



Some things to consider adding:

A crank radio is better than one that needs batteries and the one that will charge your cell phone is even better. Also, I found out the hard way that cold weather can kill batteries - like from 90% to 0%. I lost my cell phone and the backup battery I had while hiking in -2F weather. I was able to recharge them once I got back into a heated vehicle... but had I needed them while out in the wilderness....

I also like road flares as they can start a fire if you need to start a fire.

Sterno

Matches AND a lighter

Clothes - Don't forget extra gloves/hats.

Deicing fluid and an ice scraper.

Personally, I carry extra parts for a potential quick vehicle repair and the tools I would need to do it. It's easier in my truck than our small car, so I usually don't do too much for the car as space is limited.

Evening, Dakster. Good suggestions. I didn't know a crank radio can charge a cell phone? And out of curiosity, what types of parts do you carry with you?
Quoting 115. LAbonbon:

Sure, if it's possible. But lots of folks have to continue their regular lives as well. And with a holiday weekend, people are going to travel regardless of weather, if they already had planned to do so. I posted this as there was discussion a little while back when weathermanwannabe was planning his Christmas trip from Florida to New England, and was wondering what to put in his vehicle. It's a good idea to have a lot of this stuff in your car anyway, not just for a planned excursion.

Now that makes sense, Florida to New England. I live in New Orleans. I have never experienced living in a place that gets blizzards and snow storms. So when i see images and videos of people stranded on the road in sub tempertures and snow, I think to myself, what the $@&? is wrong those people. Don't they watch the weather forecast. Guess you have to do what you have to do, but I would not risk my family's life because of Chrismas.
Looks to me to trying to go annular.

Quoting 78. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Nock-ten's eye seems to be getting smaller and smaller. Hope it can do a ERC prior to landfall and weaken some.


I complain when the temperture gets in low 50s. Cold is my kryptonite.
Quoting 117. washingaway:


Now that makes sense, Florida to New England. I live in New Orleans. I have never experienced living in a place that gets blizzards and snow storms. So when i see images and videos of people stranded on the road in sub tempertures and snow, I think to myself, what the $@&? is wrong those people. Don't they watch the weather forecast. Guess you have to do what you have to do, but I would not risk my family's life because of Chrismas.

Yeah, I'm originally from New England, lived 13 years in South Louisiana, now I'm in Utah. I'd never venture out in a blizzard (similar to a hurricane, in that venturing out in one makes no sense). I wouldn't attempt to cross the mountains here, either, during an event where feet of snow is possible. But, I have many times in my life driven if there's 6, 8, 10 inches of snow possible. Workplaces don't shut down, and often schools are open (depending on how frequent snowfalls are in a given area). Breaking down is a possibility, as is getting tied up on a highway behind a nasty wreck (and having to wait hours before being able to move anywhere). It's best to be prepared. I have a friend who will never, ever, travel in her car without toilet paper...bad experience in a winter storm when she was younger...

In Louisiana when I lived in Lafayette wrecks on the Atchafalaya Basin Bridge either had me sitting in a car for hours (if I was unlucky), or riding a levee to get to 190 (if I was lucky). First time it happened I was a newbie to the area, and had no water. And it was hot, and I was dressed for an air conditioned office. Never made that mistake again.

And sorry, washingaway, but not everyone follows the weather like we do :)
Headed to bed. Night, all. And for those of you traveling tomorrow, be safe!
Quoting 116. LAbonbon:


Evening, Dakster. Good suggestions. I didn't know a crank radio can charge a cell phone? And out of curiosity, what types of parts do you carry with you?


Some of them have USB charging ports on them (crank radios).

I carry a ELM 327, OBII reader and computer. That way I can run codes, do on the road diagnostics, and reset the computer. (saved my bacon in Haines Junction, Yukon, Canada too when my AC fan motor quit - a computer reset fixed it)

In this trucks case, the known issues are CAC tube and EGT sensor - so a backup of those on my long drive isn't a bad thing to have. I carry air, fuel, and oil filters. Just because those can get destroyed. If I had a gas truck, I would't worry about fuel, because cold weather doesn't cause gas to gel up. Tire repair kit, air compressor, fix a flat (even though I hate using it). I like the iron cross to remove tire lug nuts. WD40 or similar lubricant.

Other items: Fire extinguisher, medical kit, reflective traffic vest. I also like more than just some high calorie foods, I bring drinks and water for at least several days per person. Usually this means a case of water and because we all like sodas, several 12 packs of those.

CB radio or sat phone (although sat phones have trouble in Alaska, believe it or not).

I have a big go bag that I have setup for my long drives. Since my winter drives are in town I don't have all this stuff on me. BUt if I had a long drive I would. One other thing I have is that I carry 25 gallons of extra fuel and I make sure I topped off before I leave as well. I keep it the extra fuel and try not to let the tank ever get below 1/2... But that is because where I am things get rural quick.

This is off the top of my head...


More snow. Looking good for a white x-mas here in Acme, Wa. Been 8 years since our last one. Had some snow on the ground since Dec. 9. Coming down again tonight.
Good night y'all. Stay warm and safe. Oh, and don't forget the toilet paper.
It's raining again in Soo Cal!!! Storm #3 has arrived!
Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST December 24 2016
============================

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nock-ten (915 hPa) located at 13.3N 128.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 13.5N 125.3E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.8N 120.7E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Luzon - Pangasinan province
72 HRS: 14.9N 116.8E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC YVETTE (07U)
3:00 PM WST December 24 2016
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Yvette (993 hPa) located at 16.0S 119.5E or 365 km northwest of Broome and 385 km northwest of Bidyadanga has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 17.4S 120.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 18.5S 122.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 21.2S 124.7E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
===================
Ex-TC Yvette is moving towards the Western Australia mainland and is unlikely to re-intensify prior to making landfall.

The system was located using visible satellite imagery. The low level circulation center is now not well defined.

Yvette continues to be under the influence of strong shear [25 to 30 knots] and dry air. Upper level winds indicate some poleward upper divergence. Deep convection has developed and persisted to the northwest of the center.

The system has been assigned max winds of 35 knots [in the northwest and northeast quadrants] though it remains below tropical cyclone intensity due to the lack of gales wrapping more than halfway around the center. DVORAK: Shear analysis gives DT's of 2.0. MET/PAT was 2.0 with an S trend. FT/CI set to 2.0.

Numerical Weather Prediction guidance is consistent with a steady southeast track towards the coast. Wind shear may reduce slightly as the system approaches the coast and some Numerical Weather Prediction guidance have the system intensifying slightly prior to landfall. Given the current analysis and unfavorable conditions, the system is unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The most likely scenario is that a period of strong to gale force winds occurs north of the system as it crosses the West Kimberley coast. Soon after landfall the system weakens significantly. The passage of the system is likely to bring heavy rainfall and possible flooding to the West Kimberley.
Quoting 125. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It's raining again in Soo Cal!!! Storm #3 has arrived!


I'm so happy for you... Hope you get what you need for rain...

Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
1150 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

CAC037-240900-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-161224T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Los Angeles CA-
1150 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM PST FOR
THE FISH AND RESERVOIR BURN AREAS IN EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

At 1140 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain continuing across
the Fish and Reservoir burn areas, with additional heavy rain
expected to stream up from the south. An automated rain gauge
at San Gabriel Powerhouse, just east of the Fish Fire, reported
a peak 1 hour rate of 0.70 inches, with 1.41 inches in the past 3
hours. Flash flooding with mud and debris flows will be likely
across the warning area through at least 1 am.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
The Fish and Reservoir Burn areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning for a recent burn area means that flooding and
debris flows are imminent or occurring. Residents living in or
immediately downstream should take immediate precautions to protect
life and property. Quickly move away from the burn area only if it is
safe to do so, otherwise shelter in place and move to a second story
or the highest location in your home to stay out of the path of
fast-moving water and debris flows.
Quoting 128. Dakster:



I'm so happy for you... Hope you get what you need for rain...


TYVM! It's just pouring at my place now.......started about 45 minutes ago.....Flash Flood Wrning up L.A. way 1.41" in 3 hours is DELUGE proportions for Soo Cal norms.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service San Diego CA
926 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

CAC059-065-071-073-241115-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0034.161224T0526Z-161224T1115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Orange CA-San Bernardino CA-Riverside CA-San Diego CA-
926 PM PST FRI DEC 23 2016

The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
for...
Orange County in southwestern California...
San Bernardino County in southern California...
Riverside County in southern California...
San Diego County in southwestern California...

* Until 315 AM PST

* At 915 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rain was
developing over Orange County and the Inland Empire of Riverside
and San Bernardino Counties. Pockets of very heavy rain will move
southeast along a strong cold front over the next several hours,
from NW to SE, across the region. This heavy rain with rates of up
to one inch per hour will likely cause urban and small stream
flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will likely result in
minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will likely experience flooding include...
Anaheim, Santa Ana, Riverside, Chula Vista, Irvine, San Bernardino,
Fontana, Moreno Valley, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Oceanside,
Ontario, Corona, Orange and Fullerton.

Additional rainfall of one to three inches is likely overnight. This
additional rain will likely produce minor flooding of low water
crossings and poor drainage areas..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Excessive rainfall over the Whitewater basin is expected to result in
significant flows through the Coachella storm water channel. This
could inundate low-water crossings and possibly create dangerous
swift water stretches.

Do not underestimate the power of flood waters. Only a few inches of
rapidly flowing water can quickly carry away your vehicle.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/bf l_None_anim.gif


Cannot post San Diego Radar. this is from Bakersfield. The green rain near San Diego is solid yellow on San Diego radar but only green from much further away Bakersfield radar 200 miles away
Quoting 130. HurricaneHunterJoe:



TYVM! It's just pouring at my place now.......started about 45 minutes ago.....Flash Flood Wrning up L.A. way 1.41" in 3 hours is DELUGE proportions for Soo Cal norms.


Hopefully you don't get it all at once. Slow and steady and over several days... Of course when you are in a drought, you take it however you can get it.

Nock-ten is now the latest Super Typhoon since at least 1963.

30W NOCK-TEN 161224 0600 13.3N 128.2E WPAC 130 926

Full-day rapid scan loop of Nock-ten.

However, there seems to be an eyewall replacement going on which hopefully will weaken Nock-ten somewhat before it approaches the Phillipines.

Quoting 134. Dakster:



Hopefully you don't get it all at once. Slow and steady and over several days... Of course when you are in a drought, you take it however you can get it.




After this 3rd storm in 10 days we will need a break for a bit or it will all runoff and not be as useful.
#135

I noticed that eye shrinking earlier and was hoping for a ERC to weaken the storm. Hope it happens.
Weather Conditions For:
Toro Peak, CA. HP003 (HPWREN)
Elev: 8690 ft.; Lat/Lon: 33.523/-116.425
Current Time: Dec 24 1:21 am PST


24 Dec 1:15 am 25 23 93 1 SSW 75G76 21.46 1006.8 29.67 3.64
24 Dec 1:05 am 25 23 93 1 SSW 75G76 21.46 1006.5 29.67 3.64
24 Dec 12:55 am 25 23 93 1 SSW 75G76 21.44 1005.8 29.65 3.64
24 Dec 12:45 am 25 23 93 1 SSW 73G75 21.47 1007.0 29.68 3.64
24 Dec 12:35 am 25 23 93 2 SSW 69G70 21.46 1006.6 29.67 3.64
24 Dec 12:25 am 25 23 93 3 SW 64G68 21.48 1007.1 29.69 3.64
24 Dec 12:15 am 25 23 93 3 SW 64G68 21.48 1007.4 29.70 3.64
24 Dec 12:05 am 25 23 93 3 SW 64G68 21.50 1008.4 29.73 3.64
23 Dec 11:55 pm 25 23 93 3 SW 64G68 21.49 1007.8 29.71 3.64
23 Dec 11:45 pm 24 23 93 1 SW 64G68 21.49 1008.3 29.72 3.64
23 Dec 11:35 pm 23 21 92 11 SW 14G22 21.50 1009.3 29.72 3.64

Winds on Toro Peak, about 20 miles as the crow flies from me, yikes! Pressure drops also!
From the Guardian:

Climate scientist and Nasa astronaut Piers Sellers dies aged 61

British-born Sellers, who featured in Leonardo DiCaprio’s climate change film, lauded as ‘a strident defender and eloquent spokesperson for our home planet’


British-born US astronaut Piers Sellers, pictured after his safe return on the space shuttle Discovery in 2006, died on Friday aged 61. Photograph: Pete Cosgrove/AP

Piers Sellers, a climate scientist and former astronaut who gained fame late in life for his eloquent commentary about the earth’s fragility and his own cancer diagnosis, has died. He was 61.

British-born Sellers, who flew on three space shuttle missions between 2002 and 2010, died on Friday morning in Houston, Texas, of pancreatic cancer, Nasa said in a statement.

Sellers shared his astronaut’s perspective on climate change in Leonardo DiCaprio’s documentary, Before the Flood, released earlier this year. He told DiCaprio that seeing the earth’s atmosphere as a “tiny little onion skin” from space helped him gain a fuller understanding of the planet’s delicacy.

[...]

The Nasa administrator, Charles Bolden, described Sellers “a tremendous public servant who was dedicated to Nasa, the nation and the world”.

“Piers was dedicated to all facets of exploration,” Bolden said. “His curiosity and drive to uncover new knowledge was generously shared with audiences around the world, both from space and in wide travels to reach as many people as possible with an essential understanding of our fragile planet.

“His legacy will be one not only of urgency that the climate is warming, but also of hope that we can yet improve humanity’s stewardship of this planet. His cancer diagnosis became a catalyst for him to work even harder on efforts to save the planet from global warming for the benefit of future generations.”

Bolden said Sellers “was a strident defender and eloquent spokesperson for our home planet, Earth”.

“Spacewalker and scientist, free thinker and friend to our planet, and all who seek new knowledge – to say he will be missed would be a gross understatement,” he said.

[...]

Click here to read full article

---------------

NASA:
‏@NASA

Today we lost a tremendous public servant who was dedicated to NASA, the nation and the world." #RIP Piers Sellers: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-administr ator-remembers-nasa-scientist-astronaut-piers-sell ers/

-----

Michael E. Mann:

‏@MichaelEMann

So sorry to hear this news. RIP Piers Sellers - you made a real difference.
It feels like early Spring here in Albania (i guess it makes sense since the days are getting longer).
A thought came up this morning: take a look at the Atlantic to see if there is any potentiality of an Alex-2016-like storm. Indeed:

And of course, here on Category Six, there is Nina, aka Nock-ten, a Category 5 cyclone.

bad.nockten
Merry Christmas!

hello hurricanehunter joe,
yes 1.41 over three hours is an amazing amount of rain
I spent some time in Ventura Co- Pt. Mugu and Camarillo

thats a LOT of rain
Quoting 107. washingaway:

For immediate release: Gravitational wave alert!
Issued by: The Einstein Galactic Tsunami Center (EGTS)
Star date: 386.62

A galactic tsunami advisory has been issued for the Milkyway from point X=245597642467.98754332, Y= -432765444890887.65324988882, Z=3427544587976.99999999999999 extending out 100,000 light years. A Wave magnitude of 40 light years in height is expected to reach the effected area in 2.6 lights years. Spacetime effect is expected to be extreme. 983547/sec/sec





You've been drinking with Vis0 again, haven't you. I TOLD you to bring your own sealed container!

giggle
Quoting 28. RobertWC:

Madness , madness ...........



Quoting 75. HurricaneHunterJoe:



As usual :)


And still tells me I live in Sofia BU.
Merry Christmas!




Is anyone having trouble with their favorites not being what they original chose? My favorites show now show Poland, Russia, Bulgaria, etc.

119. washingaway ...It's not so bad.

When I was young, and cars didn't have front wheel drive, I used to drive in the snow just for fun. Not in traffic... I would find a winding road and do fishtails around the curves. Sometimes I would do donuts just for fun. Wheee! Unfortunately, cars with front wheel drive don't do donuts.
I'm old enough to have left those childish pursuits behind, and traffic is much more congested, but we snowbirds are not afraid of a little (or a lot of) snow. In the mountains, I would carry tire chains in the trunk, just in case. Chains on two wheels work better than four wheel drive. Once I drove my full-sized van, with snow chains, up the mountain to tow a four wheel drive Jeep out of the snowbank! Were they embarrassed! (They had to walk many miles down the mountain to my house since we didn't have mobile phones)
Then there's skiing and snowmobiling ...I also have a "Snow Rabbit" or "Snow Runner" an inline snowmotorcycle with a ski on the front and a track on the back. My son used to ride that all around the Forest Preserves near us.
So we endure the winter, and try to have fun, too. ;-)
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!
Quoting 150. HallsCrossRdsTNWx:

Is anyone having trouble with their favorites not being what they original chose? My favorites show now show Poland, Russia, Bulgaria, etc.


A lot of us have had that anomoly! I deleted all of them, but now my favorites are gone, too.
Quoting 152. ChiThom:



A lot of us have had that anomoly! I deleted all of them, but now my favorites are gone, too.


Seems like there is a lot problems with the website over the past several months. IT really dropped the ball it seems. My 7 day weather forecast "descriptive" tab hasn't worked in months.

153. HallsCrossRdsTNWx

Yeah, but have you visited the 360° rainbow yet?
Quoting 78. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Nock-ten's eye seems to be getting smaller and smaller. Hope it can do a ERC prior to landfall and weaken some.




Actually, I think it may have just happened. See the collapsing eye? Sorta looks like matthew after it made landfall.
Quoting 153. HallsCrossRdsTNWx:



Seems like there is a lot problems with the website over the past several months. IT really dropped the ball it seems. My 7 day weather forecast "descriptive" tab hasn't worked in months.

And i have been rainbowed thrice since yesterday!
Visiting this website is sometimes like skiing down an icy mountain, slightly out of control. ;-)
Quoting 150. HallsCrossRdsTNWx:

Is anyone having trouble with their favorites not being what they original chose? My favorites show now show Poland, Russia, Bulgaria, etc.


Nothing you can do on your end, this is an WU issue that was supposedly fixed but reverted to an unfixed state. Don't change anything. It will bre fixed soon... edit: been rain-bowed a few times in the last weeks.

Rainfall totals for ca-rv-19 (Jurupa Valley) north across the Santa Ana river from Riverside, CA. STD 4.84"


I believe that a ewrc has occured! If it did, nock ten can still reintensify, which is not took good.
Did it rain in Joshua Tree too?
Quoting 156. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


And i have been rainbowed thrice since yesterday!


What's it mean to be Rainbowed?
The 360° rainbow is Dr Masters' first blog on this site. Many of us have tried to log-on to this blog, and got sent there!
Wheeee!
I feel like Kurt Vonnegut in Cat's Cradle or Slaughterhouse Five... unstuck in time!
Quoting 158. PedleyCA:



Nothing you can do on your end, this is an WU issue that was supposedly fixed but reverted to an unfixed state. Don't change anything. It will bre fixed soon... edit: been rain-bowed a few times in the last weeks.


My favorites reads like a "Jason Bourne" itinerary.
Heading to the Quarter to see da boyz perform 1 to 4 and do a lil last minute shopping.



Feliz Navidad


Quoting 156. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


And i have been rainbowed thrice since yesterday!



Quoting 162. HallsCrossRdsTNWx:



What's it mean to be Rainbowed?

It means that you get sent back into time to the first blog by Jeff Master. It is about 360 degree rainbows, hence the term "Rainbowed".
Merry Christmas!

I found a lucky charm
I dressed it up with love
I crossed the Seven Seas to you
Will it be enough?
And I will be a rainbow
Oh, while your storm is gone
And I will bring the song for you
And I will carry on






I haven't been "rainbowed" for 2 or 3 weeks, and my "favorites" are all fine, but when I try to find out more about typhoon Nock-ten on the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms page, I get a screen full of useless tables. Anyone else experiencing this?
Quoting 162. HallsCrossRdsTNWx:



What's it mean to be Rainbowed?

It means that you get sent back into time to the first blog by Jeff Master. It is about 360 degree rainbows, hence the term "Rainbowed". It can be found either through the glitch, by replacing the entry number in the URL with the number 0 and by going to the blog directory for Doctor Masters and going to the first entry in 2005.
Quoting 172. oldnewmex:

I haven't been "rainbowed" for 2 or 3 weeks, and my "favorites" are all fine, but when I try to find out more about typhoon Nock-ten on the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms page, I get a screen full of useless tables. Anyone else experiencing this?

Let me try that. When i do, ill get back to you.
Quoting 161. ChiThom:

Did it rain in Joshua Tree too?


Joshua Basin Water District
1.51 in last week...
Quoting 172. oldnewmex:

I haven't been "rainbowed" for 2 or 3 weeks, and my "favorites" are all fine, but when I try to find out more about typhoon Nock-ten on the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms page, I get a screen full of useless tables. Anyone else experiencing this?


The hurricane information from JTWC has been broken lately.

It worked fine for Yvette but it hasn't worked for Nock-ten or when Vardah was active.
Quoting 172. oldnewmex:

I haven't been "rainbowed" for 2 or 3 weeks, and my "favorites" are all fine, but when I try to find out more about typhoon Nock-ten on the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms page, I get a screen full of useless tables. Anyone else experiencing this?

Link
Can you describe what you saw? The only odd thing was that the satellite image was nonexistent
Apologies for the distraction:

Part of household solstice gifting was a big Accurite setup, shared on my latest blog entry. Can any of you with experience and comments to share on the products take a few minutes, hop over there and make some comments on setup? I'm going to test the SmartHub with our currently existing remotes in a bit.
Quoting 172. oldnewmex:

I haven't been "rainbowed" for 2 or 3 weeks, and my "favorites" are all fine, but when I try to find out more about typhoon Nock-ten on the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms page, I get a screen full of useless tables. Anyone else experiencing this?

Yup all incomplete, ends at Dec 21...
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TYPHOON NINA
11:00 PM PhST December 24 2016
==============================

Nina has maintained its strength as it moves towards the Bicol area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina (NOCK-TEN) [948 hPa] located at 13.4N 127.5E or 345 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #3
=================
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring moderate to heavy damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Catanduanes

Signal Warning #2
=================
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge of up to possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Masbate including Ticao and Burias Island
Albay
Sorsogon

Visayas Region
------------------
Northern Samar

Signal Warning #1
=================
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
-----------------
Metro Manila
Bataan
Southern Zambales
Pampanga
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Rizal
Quezon including Polillo Island
Camarines Norte
Aurora
Romblon
Marinduque
Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
Oriental Mindoro

Visayas Region
------------------
Aklan, Capiz
Samar
Eastern Samar
Biliran
Leyte
Bantayan Island

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within its 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by Sunday (Dec. 25) afternoon or evening.

Possible inclusion of Tarlac and the rest of Zambales to areas with TCWS #1 at 2 am today.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Luzon.

Storm surge height of up to 2.5 meters is possible over the coastal areas of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte and Catanduanes.
Quoting 178. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Link
Can you describe what you saw? The only odd thing was that the satellite image was nonexistent


it's a bunch of incomplete data. The site is not receiving any data from JTWC website except the tracking map.
Good morning everyone. Hope everyone has a good and safe holiday! Quite a few here are from other countries, and post here in English. So, in their native or home country lingo:

Merry Christmas!
Happy Christmas!
Feliz Navidad!
Vrolijk Kerstfeest!
Fröhliche Weihnachten!
Hyvää Joulua!
God Jul!
Feliz Natal!
Nadolig Llawen!

(Most from Google Translate, so hopefully they're correct.) Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)
Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)



Grothar was very young and so when the Annunaki came down, they gave Him the writ, and the first Language.

It was that small fractional rift between the two that actually misaligned the Great Pyramids. I suggested they use a string line like any Mason would.

But that's another epoch.



Contrary to expectations, Jeeps with 4WD are not too great in snow. I've owned 3. AWD is much better. My Subarus were always the bomb when I lived and worked in ski country. I used to take my Subaru into the big empty,snow-filled parking lots at the mountain and experiment with the car's abilities. Could never get a clean 360. Heck I couldn't even get 180. Still it is normally the driver, not the car that dictates good driving in snow. Easy to go fast. It's stopping that seems to be the problem.

Happy Holidays to All. Still cleaning up after Matthew but my project should be done within a week or so. New surfboard under the tree for me. Best wishes all!

Quoting 151. ChiThom:


119. washingaway ...It's not so bad.

When I was young, and cars didn't have front wheel drive, I used to drive in the snow just for fun. Not in traffic... I would find a winding road and do fishtails around the curves. Sometimes I would do donuts just for fun. Wheee! Unfortunately, cars with front wheel drive don't do donuts.
I'm old enough to have left those childish pursuits behind, and traffic is much more congested, but we snowbirds are not afraid of a little (or a lot of) snow. In the mountains, I would carry tire chains in the trunk, just in case. Chains on two wheels work better than four wheel drive. Once I drove my full-sized van, with snow chains, up the mountain to tow a four wheel drive Jeep out of the snowbank! Were they embarrassed! (They had to walk many miles down the mountain to my house since we didn't have mobile phones)
Then there's skiing and snowmobiling ...I also have a "Snow Rabbit" or "Snow Runner" an inline snowmotorcycle with a ski on the front and a track on the back. My son used to ride that all around the Forest Preserves near us.
So we endure the winter, and try to have fun, too. ;-)
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!
NWS precipitation information has been down the past couple days. Here's the message on their page.

The precipitation analysis has been unavailable since 12/22. We are working on a solution and apologize for the inconvenience. Please note that once functionality is restored, the missing datasets will be backfilled.
Quoting 184. Patrap:

Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)



Grothar was very young and so when the Annunaki came down, they gave Him the writ, and the first Language.

It was that small fractional rift between the two that actually misaligned the Great Pyramids. I suggested they use a string line like any Mason would.

But that's another epoch.






After they finished the first pyramid, I asked if they had anything without a point.
Quoting 183. LAbonbon:

Good morning everyone. Hope everyone has a good and safe holiday! Quite a few here are from other countries, and post here in English. So, in their native or home country lingo:

Merry Christmas!
Happy Christmas!
Feliz Navidad!
Vrolijk Kerstfeest!
Fröhliche Weihnachten!
Hyvää Joulua!
God Jul!
Feliz Natal!
Nadolig Llawen!

(Most from Google Translate, so hopefully they're correct.) Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)


You did good!!!

From all of us to all of you! I hope we can still be together in the New Year.

Quoting 183. LAbonbon:

Good morning everyone. Hope everyone has a good and safe holiday! Quite a few here are from other countries, and post here in English. So, in their native or home country lingo:

Merry Christmas!
Happy Christmas!
Feliz Navidad!
Vrolijk Kerstfeest!
Fröhliche Weihnachten!
Hyvää Joulua!
God Jul!
Feliz Natal!
Nadolig Llawen!

(Most from Google Translate, so hopefully they're correct.) Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)



Good morning class!

Rained most of the overnight hours heavy at times. Rainfall at mi casa since 10pm last night is 1.38". Sun out now, NWS saying more showers later.....nice storm! Can see snow on the ridge across the way but none at my place.........yet.
Quoting 183. LAbonbon:

Good morning everyone. Hope everyone has a good and safe holiday! Quite a few here are from other countries, and post here in English. So, in their native or home country lingo:

Merry Christmas!
Happy Christmas!
Feliz Navidad!
Vrolijk Kerstfeest!
Fröhliche Weihnachten!
Hyvää Joulua!
God Jul!
Feliz Natal!
Nadolig Llawen!

(Most from Google Translate, so hopefully they're correct.) Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)


The Welsh one is right, even though I still can't speak or understand it much, I can read it now LOL
Quoting 161. ChiThom:

Did it rain in Joshua Tree too?


On the radar out of Palm Springs earlier, looks like in Joshua Tree might have had some snow, or maybe hail/sleet/ice. A friend just posted a photo from Julian covered in snow, so wondering if Joe has had some being not far from there...
Quoting 191. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Good morning class!

Rained most of the overnight hours heavy at times. Rainfall at mi casa since 10pm last night is 1.38". Sun out now, NWS saying more showers later.....nice storm! Can see snow on the ridge across the way but none at my place.........yet.


Snap! Reading my mind LOL
Quoting 193. mitthbevnuruodo:



On the radar out of Palm Springs earlier, looks like in Joshua Tree might have had some snow, or maybe hail/sleet/ice. A friend just posted a photo from Julian covered in snow, so wondering if Joe has had some being not far from there...


Looks to me like the snow level line is about 4,000 feet right now and expected to lower today/tonight to 2500-3000 feet.....just hope the showers are still around to get me some. Julian is elevation 4200, with some areas close to there up to 4500 feet.
Nock-Ten currently 150 mph after rapid strengthening in past 24 hours, expected (hoped?) to weaken.

Click forecast graphic to expand.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
A cool (18C) and cloudy evening here in the southernmost million-city of the African continent -- No, that's not Cape Town!
I run two computers in the house, a lap top, (about 5 years old now) and a desk top (closer to 10), and I don't have anything LIKE the problems with this site that I am hearing from others. If you have an older rig laying around, maybe dig it out and fire it up and see what you get when you come to WU.

Our winter storm watch here in Helena has been down-graded to a winter weather advisory, but the snow has definitely started in the last hour; it is still light, but somehow you can just tell 'by feel' when it's gunna 'mean it'.

Totally OT, but for those of you that get bothered by the winter cold, what I did as a younger man, and this really works, is, when the first substantial snowfall came, I would put on a pair of swim-trunks and go out and roll in it as long as I could stand it, then go in and shower. I was then immune to cold the rest of the winter.

Meanwhile, as a sort of holiday Spree, we can share winter weather horror stories.

As most of you know, really cold weather makes systems malfunction in all sorts of ways. One night in 1989, a train was climbing the great divide, nine miles east of here when ... well.....:

1989 Helena train wreck

1989 Helena train wreck
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Helena Train Wreck Date February 2, 1989
Location Helena, Montana
Country US
Operator Montana Rail Link
Cause Failure of train crew to set brakes properly.[1]
Statistics
Deaths 0
Injuries 2
Damage $6 million

The Helena Train Wreck occurred in the early morning on February 2, 1989, in Helena, Montana, USA, when 48 cars of a Montana Rail Link freight train that had been decoupled from their locomotives by a train crew on Mullan Pass rolled backwards down the pass, traveling nine miles back into the city of Helena and colliding with a work train at a railway crossing near the center of the community. The collision resulted in a fire and explosion that damaged Carroll College and other nearby structures, knocked out power to most of the town, and led to the evacuation of residents within an area of 2 square miles (5.2 km2) due to concerns of possible toxic chemical release. The event occurred during a severe cold snap, with temperatures below −30 °F (−34 °C) that morning and with a wind chill factor of as much as −75 °F (−59 °C), which froze the water that firefighters used to attempt to extinguish the fire.

Contents

1 Event
2 Weather
3 Hazardous materials
4 References

Event

In the early morning of February 2, 1989, during a record cold snap,[2] a Montana Rail Link freight train picked up three extra "pusher" locomotives in Helena, Montana, to help move the train over Mullan Pass. The train then traveled west from Helena. Halfway up the pass, the lead engine developed an electrical problem that caused a loss of power and at about the same time was stopped by a malfunctioning signal. The train crew then parked the train at the Austin siding, on the east side of Mullan Pass. While waiting for the signal to be fixed, the crew uncoupled the engines from the 48-car train to switch the order of the locomotives, setting the air brakes but not the hand brakes on the cars.[3] At about 5:30 a.m., record cold temperatures caused the air brakes to fail on the decoupled cars.[2] The cars then rolled backwards 9 miles (14 km) downhill, uncontrolled, into Helena, crashed into a parked work train near the Benton Avenue crossing and Carroll College, caught fire, and exploded.[2]

The explosion awakened many local residents, some of whom thought it was an earthquake. The blast caused extensive damage to Carroll College,[2] shaking St. Charles Hall, a classroom and dormitory building, and shattering most of the windows in Guadelupe Hall, the women's dormitory.[4] A piece of a railroad car landed in the college library, which was vacant at the time due to the early hour of the day.[3] Other buildings damaged in Helena included the scagliola columns and other interior features of the Cathedral of St. Helena, located over 1 mile (1.6 km) away.[5] No one was killed, but the explosion disabled electric service to much of the community, as well as to some residents outside Helena, including rolling brownouts extending as far north as Great Falls, Montana, approximately 90 miles (140 km) away.[6] It shattered windows 1 mile (1.6 km) distant, ejected debris for blocks, and increased concerns about toxic gases spreading through the community. Neighborhoods within a radius of 2 miles (3.2 km) were evacuated.[6]
Weather

The temperature at the time of the accident was about −32 °F (−36 °C) and the resulting power outage disabled heat for a significant number of community residents.[4] Later consequences included water damage to buildings resulting from frozen plumbing and other difficulties that necessitated expensive repairs and plagued local residences for years.[7] The event headlined a three-minute story on winter weather on NBC News that evening.[8] The cold snap that ran from January 30 to February 4 was ranked number 4 on the NOAA's list of Montana's Top Weather/Water/Climate events of the 20th century. The temperature remained colder than −20 °F (−29 °C) for 84 hours. A record low, −33 °F (−36 °C), occurred on February 4. Wind chill was as low as −75 °F (−59 °C).[2] Firefighters were hampered by water freezing as they attempted to use hoses to extinguish the blaze.[4]
Hazardous materials

First responders were concerned about the potential for exposure to toxic chemicals, as they did not know at the time what materials were being transported by the freight cars.[4] The explosion was later determined to have been caused by a tank carrying isopropyl alcohol, which caught fire[6] and caused an explosion in another nearby car containing hydrogen peroxide.[4] This was deemed a hazardous materials release.[9] The accident, particularly due to the chemical release, has been used as an example of the risks inherent in rail transportation, particularly by those assessing the risks of rail transportation of nuclear materials.[10] This derailment was part of a 2003 study of highway and train derailment accidents by the United States Department of Energy on accident sequence and nuclear risk.[11]

Quoting 183. LAbonbon:

Good morning everyone. Hope everyone has a good and safe holiday! Quite a few here are from other countries, and post here in English. So, in their native or home country lingo:

Merry Christmas!
Happy Christmas!
Feliz Navidad!
Vrolijk Kerstfeest!
Fröhliche Weihnachten!
Hyvää Joulua!
God Jul!
Feliz Natal!
Nadolig Llawen!

(Most from Google Translate, so hopefully they're correct.) Not sure what Gro's native language is...
If I missed anyone, feel free to post :)

Joyeux Noel to 999.