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Early, Late, and Far-Flung: The Eclectic 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 8:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2016

After three relatively quiet seasons, the hurricane-generating waters of the North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean returned in 2016 to the busy production schedule they’ve maintained in most years since the mid-1990s. Assisted by the switch from a record-strong El Niño to a borderline La Niña, which reduced vertical wind shear, the 2016 season ended up above the long-term average for all of the most commonly tracked indices, with the largest number of hurricanes observed since 2012, the most major hurricanes since 2011, and the Atlantic’s first Category 5 hurricane since 2007. Persistent dryness in mid-levels of the atmosphere likely kept this season from being even more active, noted Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University, CSU) in his end-of-season recap.

Here are the numbers for 2016 through November 30, the official last day of the Atlantic season. In parentheses are the average values for the period 1981 - 2010. Below the tally, you’ll find our look at a few noteworthy aspects of this prolonged, wide-ranging season.

Tropical cyclones (including depressions):  16
Named storms:  15 (average 12.1)
Hurricanes:  7 (average 6.4)
Major hurricanes:  3 (average 2.7)
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), as reported by CSU:  134 units (average 108)


Figure 1. Forecasts of the expected number of Atlantic hurricanes in 2016 as issued by a variety of forecast groups shown at the bottom of the chart. The actual total number of hurricanes through November 30 was 7, which falls within the outlooks from almost every group that issued its forecast as a range rather than a single number. Forecasts in pale blue were based on statistical models, those in red on dynamical models, and those in purple on hybrid models. Image credit: Colorado State University/Barcelona Supercomputing Center/XL Catlin.

•    The Atlantic’s deadliest hurricane in more than a decade: Matthew
The main story of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Matthew, the Atlantic’s first Category 5 storm since Felix of 2007. Matthew lasted as a major hurricane for eight days from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7, and devastated Haiti as a  Category 4 storm on October 4. Matthew killed 546 in Haiti, according to the insurance broker Aon Benfield, making it the Atlantic’s deadliest hurricane in 11 years. Damage in Haiti was estimated at $1.9 billion--a staggering 21% of the impoverished nation’s GDP, and by far Haiti’s costliest hurricane on record, according to the international disaster database, EM-DAT (previous record: $400 million 1980 dollars from Hurricane Allen.) Matthew battered Cuba as a Category 4 storm, causing $2.6 billion in damage (3.2% of their GDP.) Matthew was Cuba’s second most expensive hurricane on record, behind Hurricane Georges of 1998 ($3 billion in damage in 2016 dollars.) The Bahamas suffered $600 million in damage from Matthew (6.8% of GDP), making it their third most expensive hurricane on record behind Hurricane Frances of 2004 ($1.28 billion in losses, 2016 dollars) and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 ($700 million in damage).

Matthew grazed the coast of Florida and Georgia before making landfall in South Carolina on October 8 as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Matthew’s storm surge brought water levels that were the highest ever observed along portions of the coasts of Northern Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, beating records that had been set as long ago as 1928. Near record-warm ocean waters contributed to atmospheric moisture levels that were the highest on record over portions of Florida and South Carolina as Matthew moved up the coast, allowing the hurricane to dump 1-in-1000 year rains in some areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Matthew killed 49 people in the U.S., 28 of them in North Carolina, and U.S. damage was estimated at up to $10 billion. This would make Matthew the 17th most expensive hurricane in U.S. history. Remnant moisture from Matthew also brought flooding rains and high winds to parts of the Maritime Provinces of Canada, causing tens of millions of dollars in damage.


Figure 2.Fuel tanks are surrounded by booms to capture leaking fuel on October 12, 2016, in Lumberton, NC, in the wake of flooding from Hurricane Matthew. The Lumberton River hit an all-time record flood crest of 24.39’ on October 9, 2016. Image credit: AP/Chuck Burton.


Figure 3. Twenty-four hour rainfall amounts from Hurricane Matthew on October 6 - 10, 2016 over portions of South Carolina and North Carolina were so extreme, that one could expect them to have a recurrence interval of 1-in-1000 years based on past climatology (dark blue colors). The calculations do not incorporate general trends toward more extreme rainfall related to climate change. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

•    A phenomenally prolonged season. On January 14, Hurricane Alex became the Atlantic’s first January hurricane since 1955. Alex maintained Category 1 strength for almost 24 hours, peaking at 85 mph winds, before weakening to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds and making landfall on January 15 on the island of Terceira in the central Azores, roughly 1000 miles west of Portugal. No major damage or casualties were reported from Alex’s landfall. Only one other time since records began in 1851 has a January tropical cyclone made landfall in the Atlantic: Hurricane Alice, which moved from northeast to southwest over the islands of Saint Martin and Saba on January 2, 1954. The only other January hurricane in the Atlantic was Hurricane One on January 4, 1938. Alex’s ascension to hurricane strength was likely aided by sea surface temperatures that were up to 1°C above average for that time of year--near 22°C (72°F.)


Figure 4. MODIS visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Alex at 9:20 am EST Friday, January 15, 2016. About an hour earlier, Alex’s western eyewall passed over the Azores island of Terceira (black outline below the center of Alex). Image credit: NASA.

The season’s other bookend (assuming no other tropical cyclones form by December 31) was deadly Hurricane Otto, the first hurricane known to make landfall on Thanksgiving Day (November 24 this year) as well as the Atlantic’s strongest hurricane on record so late in the calendar. After its landfall in far southern Nicaragua, Otto weakened to tropical storm strength while moving over northwest Costa Rica, where it killed 10 people. Only one other Atlantic tropical cyclone in recorded history has killed people later in the year: Tropical Storm Odette, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic after making landfall on December 6, 2003. Otto is the first named storm on record to pass directly over Costa Rica, and as it moved into the Pacific, it became the first tropical cyclone to keep its name while moving from one ocean basin to another. (Several other storms have successfully crossed basins, but previous policy was to change the name when this occurred.)
 
The only year with anything close to this prolonged a tropical cyclone season--January 12 to November 24--was 1938, whose activity extended from January 3 to November 10. Even if we discount January storms by arguing that they represent the tail ends of prior seasons, this year’s activity still ran from May 27 to November 24. That span is just one day shorter than the classic June-to-November season, and it’s only a month shorter than the infamous 2005 season, which went from June 8 to January 6.


Figure 5. MODIS satellite image of Otto taken at approximately 11 am EST, November 24, 2016--Thanksgiving Day. At the time, Otto was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds about to make landfall in Nicaragua as the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever observed so late in the year. Image credit: NASA.

•    Record amounts of oceanic fuel. The very strong 2015-16 El Niño, playing out on top of relentless long-term warming associated with human-produced greenhouse gases, led to record-warm sea surface temperatures across many parts of the globe, including the North Atlantic. Many of this year’s storms developed or intensified over waters that were 1°C - 2°C (1.8° - 3.6°F) above the local seasonal average. The widespread oceanic warmth most likely played a role in extending the season, as well as supporting greater intensification in locations and time frames where it otherwise might not have occurred. Several of this year’s hurricanes hit their peak strength near or north of 30°N, where especially warm waters prevailed during peak season.


Figure 6. Large swaths of the world’s oceans experienced record-warm sea surface temperatures for the year 2016 through October, including most of the Northwest Atlantic and Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

•    A year littered with landfalls. From the first named storm to the last, 2016 saw an unusually large number of its tropical cyclones (13 out of 16) passing over or near land. Actual landfalls were also numerous, and their locations were remarkably diverse, including the Azores (Alex); South Carolina (Bonnie); Florida (Colin); Mexico (Danielle); Belize (Earl); Haiti, Cuba, The Bahamas, and South Carolina (Matthew); Bermuda (Nicole); and far south Nicaragua (Otto). Tropical Storm Julie jumped the gun on landfall by becoming a named storm while it was located over eastern Florida, making it the first tropical storm on record to develop within the Sunshine State. The five landfalling storms in the United States were the most since 2008, when six storms struck.

•    The intensity challenge, circa 2016. Over the last few years, forecasters and computer models have made some real headway in the devilishly difficult challenge of predicting rapid hurricane intensification, but 2016 gave us two humbling examples of how far we still have to go. As Hurricane Matthew drifted across the southern Caribbean Sea, it rocketed in strength from Category 1 to Category 5 in just 24 hours (from 80 mph sustained winds at 03Z on September 30 to 160 mph at 03Z on October 1). The official NHC forecast at the start of this day-long burst was for Matthew to take three days to top out at high-end Category 2 strength (105 mph). Less dramatic but still eye-opening was Nicole’s surge from Category 1 to Category 4 strength in the Northwest Atlantic over just 21 hours (from 90 mph sustained winds at 06Z on October 12 to 135 mph at 03Z on October 13). Like Matthew, Nicole had also been predicted at the start of its rapid strengthening to remain just below the major hurricane threshold (Category 3). NHC often reminds users in their discussions and statements that a particular hurricane could strengthen more rapidly than indicated in the official forecast.

•    Warning woes on the East Coast. The year’s two most significant East Coast hurricane threats, Matthew and Hermine, proved to be unusually challenging from the warning perspective. Nearly the entire East Coast from Florida to Massachusetts ended up in a hurricane or tropical storm warning as a result of the two storms. Matthew’s concave coastal track cut down on the amount of wind damage, especially in Florida, while Hermine lingered just far enough off the mid-Atlantic so that many coastal stretches from Delaware to New York that had been largely abandoned for the Labor Day weekend ended up with oddly picture-perfect weather in the midst of tropical storm warnings. In both cases, the high-end risks painted by computer forecast models were enough to justify alerting residents. Strong winds, high surf, rip tides, and coastal erosion hammered the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during Hermine’s leisurely decay, and Matthew’s record storm surge along the Southeast coast and its catastrophic rains inland will not soon be forgotten.


Figure 7. Waves crash ashore at Atlantic City, New Jersey, on Sunday, September 4, 2016, as Tropical Storm Hermine spins well offshore. Image credit: Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images.

•    Florida’s hurricane “drought” is over--but another record string continues. Florida got its first hurricane landfall in nearly 11 years (3966 days) with the arrival of Category 1 Hermine, which struck the state’s northeast Gulf Coast on September 2. The landfall ended a string of good fortune unprecedented in Florida records. Hermine was also the first hurricane observed in the Gulf of Mexico since Ingrid in 2013, curtailing the Gulf’s longest hurricane-free stretch on record. Hurricane Matthew’s track just off the Southeast coast until its South Carolina landfall kept it from ending yet another remarkable “drought”: the longest period between major hurricane landfalls (Category 3 or stronger) in U.S. hurricane data going back to 1851. This ongoing stretch began after Hurricane Wilma struck Florida in October 2005. A number of observers, including Robert Hart (Florida State University) and colleagues, have noted that this record is somewhat arbitrary, especially since two large landfalling systems with lesser winds but major storm surge were the nation’s second and third most costly hurricanes on record: Sandy in 2012 and Ike in 2008, respectively. In October, Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow declared the U.S. major-hurricane drought to be the “most overblown statistic in meteorology.”

Still, it’s undeniably impressive that all 29 major hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic from 2006 through 2016 managed to avoid bringing Category 3 winds to the shores of the United States. Even if this is nothing more than a fluky natural variation, the major-hurricane drought reminds us that it’s been a long time since we’ve seen what truly devastating hurricane winds can do to the nation’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

Addendum: Louisiana’s no-name storm
One other event deserves mention here, even though it’s not officially part of the 2016 tropical season: the slow-moving disturbance that dumped colossal amounts of rain on southern Louisiana in mid-August, causing 13 deaths and an estimated $10 - 15 billion in damage. Because surface winds were light and the surface low stayed generally onshore, the system was never declared a tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center. At the same time, for much of its life the storm was a symmetric warm-core low, the same type of structure associated with tropical cyclones. Regardless of its classification, the storm behaved much like other tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes that have taken their time moving through the Gulf Coast region. Some parts of Louisiana recorded more than 20" of rain in 48 hours, which qualifies as a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event (having a 0.1 percent chance of occurring at a particular location in any given year), according to the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. The highest rainfall total from the storm was 31.39” in Watson, Louisiana. The storm system carried near-record amounts of atmospheric moisture, drawn from the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic, where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were at near-record levels.

For more perspective on the 2016 Atlantic season, check out Dr. Brian McNoldy’s wrap-up (Capital Weather Gang) and Dr. Phil Klotzbach’s seasonal summary at Colorado State University. We’ll be back with a new post on Friday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 8. Major flooding in Prairieville, Louisiana on Friday, August 12, 2016. Image credit: @presleygroupmk/twitter.com.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
CYCLONIC STORM NADA (BOB05-2016)
20:30 PM IST November 30 2016
==================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts: Orange Message

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nada over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards during past six hours with a speed of about 17 km/h and lays centered near 10.0N 83.5E over southwestern Bay of Bengal, about 490 km southeast of Chennai, 460 km east southeast of Puducherry and 290 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is very likely to move west northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu coast between Vedaranniyam and Puducherry, close to Cuddalore by early hours on December 2nd.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5. The system shows curved band pattern. However, the cloud mass shows slight disorganization. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over coastal Tamil Nadu, Palk Strait, Sri Lanka and over Bay of Bengal between latitude 8.0N to 11.5N and to west of longitude 84.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 1000 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
9 HRS 10.8N 82.4E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 11.2N 81.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 11.5N 77.9 - Low Pressure Area
nice new blog thanks for the update going to read the entry looks good
Thanks for the update gentlemen.
year round excitement!
The August Rain with No Name flooded out tens of thousands to the tune of $10 Billion in itself.

Adds ZERO ACE to the Season.





After Nada comes "Vardah", and models have become more bullish.

cant forget our no namer that flooded parts of louisiana. that one deserves its own blog.
Fiona´s TCR is out and the most important thing is that develop 9 hours before the first advisory. You should all check it out.
Quoting 6. Patrap:

The August Rain with No Name flooded out tens of thousands to the tune of $10 Billion in itself.

Adds ZERO ACE to the Season.








A lot of weird weather is just that, weather. But there is solid evidence, both theoretical and observational, that flash and areal flood frequency in the CONUS has increased substantially in the past half century with the largest changes in the Northern U.S. and that this will get worse, much worse, with increased warming. I haven't seen refereed studies on Eurasia but similar things are probably happening there. I think we can take it to the bank (where we'll have to make more heavy withdrawals ) that we're going to see more and more frequent flood disasters in the next ten and even worse in the next twenty years.

Another datapoint. Seven of the sixteen 6" broad area (over 1000 square miles) flood events in Minnesota, recorded since 1880, have happened since 2000.

Thanks to Paul Douglas, a Minneapolis broadcast meteorologist, for that tidbit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2016/11/18/americas-tv-meteorologists-s ymptoms-of-climate-change-are-rampant-undeniable/? utm_term=.788e5de98a78


Another anectote closer to home. In DC area on December 23, 2015 with PWATS at record levels for the month and winter season, we got two inches of warm process convective rain in an hour causing substantial flash flooding. We USED to be safe from this stuff in winter and I had never seen anything like it in my previous forty five years in the DC area in winter.

We've added a note in today's post on the no-name Louisiana storm, which definitely deserves to be acknowledged in the seasonal roundup.
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen... I just got Rainbowed....
Quoting 29. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the updates Gentlemen... I just got Rainbowed....

Do you have a link to this rainbow post? I tried simply going to the first post on the blog, but found a different one instead.
Quoting 30. OKsky:


Do you have a link to this rainbow post? I tried simply going to the first post on the blog, but found a different one instead.
I think ped means he just seen a rainbow outside his house up in the sky thing maybe
from my posting of all the seasons tropical systems named looks like the month of july was the only month without a named system
Thanks for the update Gentlemen. What I would like to know is the following; are we currently headed towards a shift in the Multi-Decadal period from the active phase for Atlantic hurricanes which started around 1993 (year after Andrew) towards a less active phase (as suggested by TSR several months ago just before this season started) and was this year just an anomaly after several prior seasons with struggling tropical storms and no majors impacting the US, or, are we still in continuation of the active phase ? (now going into it's 23rd year).......... Just Askin.............................
but I think earl formed at the end of july couple of days near the end of the month
Quoting 33. weathermanwannabe:

hard to say I would think maybe next season we will go back to struggling again but we got lucky this season in late sept/oct and nov for the boost too the overall season
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hard to say I would think maybe next season we will go back to struggling again but we got lucky this season in late sept/oct and nov for the boost too the overall season


This season was unbelievable when you consider the last several ones..................................
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think ped means he just seen a rainbow outside his house up in the sky thing maybe


You could be right, however there is a bug that is sending people to the first post somehow. I figured "its the first post.. I will just change entrynum=3517 to entrynum=1 and I will be able to see it" I was wrong... the first post entrynum is 0. (as a programmer I should have known it would be zero indexed)
Anyways... if anyone else is curious about the first post and can't recreate the bug to get there, here is a link to it. :)

Edit: it just dawned on me that I could have just navigated to it using the site like a normal person.... sigh.
Quoting 7. elioe:

After Nada comes "Vardah", and models have become more bullish.






India Meteorological Department are noting a new low pressure area will form Saturday.
Dr Guy Mcphereson's latest offering on abrupt climate change, about two weeks ago in New Zealand:

Link
He created a beloved blog about the melting Arctic. But it got harder and harder to write

Beloved Arctic blogger puts a pause on writing: "watching this steamroller ... is taking its toll"


NOAA scientists explore the Arctic during a 2005 mission. (NOAA)

“I’m sorry to see him taking a break and hope that he’ll resume the blog again,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice expert with NASA. “I think it’s a loss to the general public and to the scientific community.”

So that the message of the last blog, the importance of supporting Climate Change Scientists, does not disappear at once, it might be a good idea to include a paragraph to that effect at the top of each fresh blog. For extreme regulars, that may seem tedious, but those people really put themselves under fire, and we should be supporting them as much as we suppose we should support returning veterans.

I think that that is pretty important.

Anyone else agree?
Saw a frog crossing the road tonight while driving around. I live 6 miles from the Canadian border in New York. It's way too late to be seeing frogs here.
Anxiously awaiting the last TWO. In the meantime, a little evening reading that should peek your interests.

LAKELAND --
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Hunters are making Lakeland Linder Regional Airport their new home.

Hurricane Hunters leaving MacDill Air Force Base
Construction underway on new facilities
NOAA expected to occupy new buildings May 1, 2017

The city of Lakeland and NOAA signed the agreement Wednesday, according Airport Director Gene Conrad. Demolition work has already begun.

"Many, many months, many sleepless nights of hard work trying to get here," Conrad said. "We're just fortunate and honored to be the new home for NOAA and their operations center."

NOAA said it chose Lakeland because the city's proposal met its needs at the lowest offered cost.

"I'm beyond thrilled," Lakeland City Manager Tony Delgado said. "I'm ecstatic to be able to welcome our new partners, NOAA, to our community."

The deal means the Hurricane Hunters will stay in the Bay area for at least another decade. The location keeps them close to where the storms they are named after tend to form.

"We're very happy, but the work is only beginning," Capt. Michael Silah said. "We have a very short timeline. Construction is going to be very challenging for our people, as well as the airport."

Lakeland officials have been working to move the Hurricane Hunters to Lakeland since February. That's when they heard the group had to leave MacDill Air Force Base.

According to the lease agreement, NOAA will lease office and hangar space for about $12.7 million over 10 years. That pays for housing nine aircraft — including its planes used to hunt hurricanes.

It also covers office space for 110 staff members. The additional jobs, city officials project, will boost the local economy.

"Hopefully some of those folks will come here and buy homes here and their kids will attend school here," Conrad said. "When they come to work every day, they're going to come to our restaurants and shop in our stores."

It's a rare opportunity that Conrad hopes will entice commercial airliners to move to the Lakeland area next.

NOAA is expected to be moved in and operating at Lakeland Linder Regional Airport by May 1, just in time for the start of next year's hurricane season (the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30).

The new design:



Construction already underway:

by the way i am not sure you guy here have here it but AT&T now has directv now and that is going to give sling TV a run for its $ has directv now has the weather CH too where sling TV dos not
45. Bau
You talk a lot about climate changes and planet overheating and so on. Perfect.
The main problem is the increasing surpopulation of our planet, the cause behind human activity, etc.
So scientists should work much more on solution for that problem than on climate changes, a consequence of surpopulation and not the worst one...!


Neven @ Artic Sea Ice gets a well deserved profile piece on the Washington Post website…

Link


From the article:

Curlin is, in the end, a creature of our saddening climate times — in which we have unprecedented volumes of data and analysis available, for the expert and for the amateur alike, allowing us to watch at high resolution as the world burns. It’s fascinating, it’s all-consuming — and sometimes, it’s also devastating. You can be a good analyst, you can even help scientists themselves think about things in a new way — but then, sometimes you also have to stop and feel.
With the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close, here's a montage I created showcasing the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season's tropical cyclones; all storms are hand-drawn. Activity was distributed throughout the basin this year, though there are storms that stand out in this montage; I find Major Hurricane Gaston and its wide eye quite appealing. I may add tracks to this image once all tropical cyclone reports are released.



Zoomed in, with labels:


Additional sizes

Previous years:
- 2015
- 2014
45. Bau -

It's not an either or problem , it's like Medusa's hair , there's a lot snakes on that girl's head.

Quoting 42. NNYer:

Saw a frog crossing the road tonight while driving around. I live 6 miles from the Canadian border in New York. It's way too late to be seeing frogs here.

Truly scary .
With Temperatures Hitting 1.2 C Hotter than Pre-Industrial, Drought Now Spans the Globe

Jeff Goodell, an American author and editor at Rolling Stone, is noted for saying this: “once we deliberately start messing with the climate, we could inadvertantly shift rainfall patterns (climate models have shown that the Amazon is particularly vulnerable) causing collapse of ecosystems, drought, famine and more.”

We are in the process of testing that theory. In the case of drought, which used to just be a regional affair but has now gone global, Goodell appears to have been right on the money.


Link
Surpopulation? What does that even mean?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302341
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2017. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Well that's all she wrote, what a memorable season, until next time sayonara, adios, au revoir, good-bye...drops mic...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2017. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 51. weathergirl2001:

Surpopulation? What does that even mean?
surplus
more than you need
(Courtesy of RobSpear, commentor on the robscribbler.com blog)

"Amazing lecture: “Abrupt Climate Change and Extreme Events” by Prof Paul Mayewski of the University of Maine. Connects all the dots using recent ice core sampling. Well worth the 50 minutes IMO."

Link
How China's climate revolution can stop global warming

With or without the cooperation of the US government, nations around the world have begun to take collective action against climate change. Could a new cap-and-trade market in China set a global example?

Quoting 51. weathergirl2001:

Surpopulation? What does that even mean?


Drunk dialing an old girl friend from 25 years ago ?
Quoting 57. MontanaZephyr:

(Courtesy of RobSpear, commentor on the robscribbler.com blog)

"Amazing lecture: “Abrupt Climate Change and Extreme Events” by Prof Paul Mayewski of the University of Maine. Connects all the dots using recent ice core sampling. Well worth the 50 minutes IMO."

Link

Hans Oeschger Medal 2016

The 2016 Hans Oeschger Medal is awarded to Paul A. Mayewski in recognition of his outstanding contribution to ice core and climate research and his seminal contribution to ice core chemistry.

The story about Neven has me worried , I have read him for several years, and chimed in, once in a while. His readers are some of the most knowledgeable , talented , interesting people on any thread anywhere. Interestingly, he has always thrown the trolls off his site. That's a full time job right there. As a result, those threads never plowed the same old ground. They are always deep, and insightful . And I always learned there. Even if at first, I had no clue what I was learning. Neven has donate page , give him some love.

Link

Comment deleted.
Quoting 62. MontanaZephyr:



LOL!~ I like you bud!


Right back at ya slick.
Quoting 9. allancalderini:

Fiona´s TCR is out and the most important thing is that develop 9 hours before the first advisory. You should all check it out.

Where is this found?
Far out in time...but CFS is forecasting some unfavorable conditions for the Atlantic next August. However, models have frequently showed MDR cooling but it has not happened.

As this, season comes to a close, I would just like to say that it has been a remarkable season, condemned to the history books (or at least wikipedia) for many years. The only regret of this season is the number of people killed and the damage done.

Some storms worth remembering

Alex (Early forming date)
Collin (unorganization)
Earl (RI and imo, its resemblance to wilma)
Gaston (Its eye)
99L (Has it developed yet?)
Hermine (The little storm that could)
Julia (forming over land)
Matthew (First cat 5 since felix, struck cuba,haiti, the bahamas and the us)
The blob (With Matthew)
Nicole (Bermuda landfall)
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:

Far out in time...but CFS is forecasting some unfavorable conditions for the Atlantic next August. However, models have frequently showed MDR cooling but it has not happened.


CFS bias on having a cold MDR since last year.
Up in other worlds -

A word about the Scribblers, he like Neven, he runs a troll free site. He like Neven , goes dark every now and then , even more than Neven. And like Neven, his readers are some of the smartest most interesting people one will ever read.

If one cares about climate change . He's at it everyday hammer and thongs. And when I stumbled across him years ago , I gave up my own efforts to join him . Now he has world wide readership.
His threads are a deep insight being on the ground .

Why ? Because he throw's the trolls too.

The US free speech idea , ends at the government printing office, and the county courthouse. A blog on the web is a private space. I don't have to listen to the same endless gibberish , over and over, and over.

Or as I have come call them , "Right wing fur balls" .............. Thank-you for hacking up that right wing fur ball. From the same tiny incestuous pod of the old white men for a decade. Who believe that Jesus could have rode a dinosaur.

Neven , many have ended all this . His site was full of things I have never seen , his readers knew what they were doing. his site is a world treasure.
Quoting 68. Gearsts:

CFS bias on having a cold MDR since last year.

That is interesting. CFS has had a cold MDR bias. However, it generally has a wet bias on MDR precip, and it's showing a very dry MDR. This is interesting. The truth is though it is too early to get a definitive answer on how active the 2017 AHS will be, but I am doubtful we'll see a very active Cape Verde season given how much MDR storms have struggled in the past few years. The Caribbean and GOM may be a different story if shear is low there.
Quoting 67. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

As this, season comes to a close, I would just like to say that it has been a remarkable season, condemned to the history books (or at least wikipedia) for many years. The only regret of this season is the number of people killed and the damage done.

Some storms worth remembering

Alex (Early forming date)
Collin (unorganization)
Earl (RI and imo, its resemblance to wilma)
Gaston (Its eye)
99L (Has it developed yet?)
Hermine (The little storm that could)
Julia (forming over land)
Matthew (First cat 5 since felix, struck cuba,haiti, the bahamas and the us)
The blob (With Matthew)
Nicole (Bermuda landfall)


Earl was no wilma and it all so did not have any RI to it
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302341
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2017. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

That's a wrap!
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think ped means he just seen a rainbow outside his house up in the sky thing maybe


No I got post #1 from 2005, that is what I meant by I got RainBowed.....
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:



No I got post #1 from 2005, that is what I meant by I got RainBowed.....
known unknown re known blog title time warp continuum ya they working on that
I love hearing the sound of heavy rain outside.
Quoting 69. RobertWC:

Up in other worlds -

A word about the Scribblers, he like Neven, he runs a troll free site. He like Neven , goes dark every now and then , even more than Neven. And like Neven, his readers are some of the smartest most interesting people one will ever read.

If one cares about climate change . He's at it everyday hammer and thongs. And when I stumbled across him years ago , I gave up my own efforts to join him . Now he has world wide readership.
His threads are a deep insight being on the ground .

Why ? Because he throw's the trolls too.

The US free speech idea , ends at the government printing office, and the county courthouse. A blog on the web is a private space. I don't have to listen to the same endless gibberish , over and over, and over.

Or as I have come call them , "Right wing fur balls" .............. Thank-you for hacking up that right wing fur ball. From the same tiny incestuous pod of the old white men for a decade. Who believe that Jesus could have rode a dinosaur.

Neven , many have ended all this . His site was full of things I have never seen , his readers knew what they were doing. his site is a world treasure.


Indeed, it is.
Quoting 75. washingtonian115:

I love hearing the sound of heavy rain outside.
Washingtonian115 bustin' some moves :)


Quoting 42. NNYer:

Saw a frog crossing the road tonight while driving around. I live 6 miles from the Canadian border in New York. It's way too late to be seeing frogs here.


So, people from Quebec don't travel at night? :>)
Like I said, the less educated will criticize because they'll believe anything they read.
Guess where this is. Go ahead and cheat if you want. I don't care!

Quoting 75. washingtonian115:
I love hearing the sound of heavy rain outside.
Unfortunately, my lab does not. He came to associate rain with thunder last spring. He knows too much meteorology now.
Quoting 83. bappit:

Guess where this is. Go ahead and cheat if you want. I don't care!


I wont India
NOAA is moving their reconnaissance from McDill to Lakeland Regional. The execs from Lakeland Regional have been negotiating with NOAA for months and offered incentives for them bring their aircraft there. Way to negotiate guys! Great win for LR!
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

Like I said, the less educated will criticize because they'll believe anything they read.
is the question you want to be criticize maybe
Quoting 81. LoveReignoerMe:



So, people from Quebec don't travel at night? :>)

No, it's way past the froggy's bedtime.
I cheated and bappit's linked picture was not taken where I expected. Great Oreskes video from yesterday, bappit.
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

Like I said, the less educated will criticize because they'll believe anything they read

KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
I don't believe anything
but I am open too a well balance discussion
that results in solutions for problems
that seem to exist and create to look like it don't exist
at the same time
Quoting 79. luvtogolf:

Trump and his new administration saves 1,000 AMERICAN job at Carrier. Employees who didn't support him during the election are excited to shake his hand tomorrow and say thank you and will now support him! He's taking action -the Trump movement has just begun! And amazingly he'll get ripped by Liberals and criticized for it by the less educated.


Lessee... state giveaways, corporate tax cuts and preferential treatment in government contracts. What an auspicious beginning!

Alternatively, laws could have been proposed to make companies who leave the US pay back all tax breaks and subsidies they received, and to make provisions for laid-off workers, but that's not the way this new administration rolls. Besides, there's a 'victory tour' in Indiana coming up, so the Great Deal-Maker was at a disadvantage, and had to cave to pressure to get this bit of retail politics done pronto.

CEOs of every manufacturer in the US will be jamming the phone lines at Trump Tower, claiming they're going to leave the US unless they get the same deal.

Quoting 83. bappit:

Guess where this is. Go ahead and cheat if you want. I don't care!



Saudi Arabia?
So, when does Matthew's blob analysis start?
Quoting 10. georgevandenberghe:



A lot of weird weather is just that, weather. But there is solid evidence, both theoretical and observational, that flash and areal flood frequency in the CONUS has increased substantially in the past half century with the largest changes in the Northern U.S. and that this will get worse, much worse, with increased warming. I haven't seen refereed studies on Eurasia but similar things are probably happening there. I think we can take it to the bank (where we'll have to make more heavy withdrawals ) that we're going to see more and more frequent flood disasters in the next ten and even worse in the next twenty years.

Another datapoint. Seven of the sixteen 6" broad area (over 1000 square miles) flood events in Minnesota, recorded since 1880, have happened since 2000.

Thanks to Paul Douglas, a Minneapolis broadcast meteorologist, for that tidbit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2016/11/18/americas-tv-meteorologists-s ymptoms-of-climate-change-are-rampant-undeniable/? utm_term=.788e5de98a78


Another anectote closer to home. In DC area on December 23, 2015 with PWATS at record levels for the month and winter season, we got two inches of warm process convective rain in an hour causing substantial flash flooding. We USED to be safe from this stuff in winter and I had never seen anything like it in my previous forty five years in the DC area in winter.




Just had a line of severe thunderstorms roll through my area in Maryland, speaking of unusual weather. You don't get many warm moist days in December, let alone severe thunderstorms with torrential downpours. :P
Quoting 45. Bau:

You talk a lot about climate changes and planet overheating and so on. Perfect.
The main problem is the increasing surpopulation of our planet, the cause behind human activity, etc.
So scientists should work much more on solution for that problem than on climate changes, a consequence of surpopulation and not the worst one...!


Actually, at the rate we're going climate destabilization will take care of the problem soon enough. :P
Quoting 79. luvtogolf:

Trump and his new administration saves 1,000 AMERICAN job at Carrier. Employees who didn't support him during the election are excited to shake his hand tomorrow and say thank you and will now support him! He's taking action -the Trump movement has just begun! And amazingly he'll get ripped by Liberals and criticized for it by the less educated.


If Trump does something like he campaigned on, and fulfills those promises; which his appointments suggest strongly he may, we may see national and world implosion on a level we can't yet imagine my friends. We shall see soon enough. Maybe he will unify with Russia and Iran to bring stability with the US and allies in Syria. Iraq is a losing equation for ISIS now. Severing that proxy war with the Saudi's against Russia, Syria, and Iran has not been our strategic plan. Maybe he won't go nuclear on AGW.. He can read and think, but for the love of money one can easily think to ignore the truth. I'm really hoping he's going to really surprise people, because we are dangerously divided as a nation right now. We desperately need a unify message of inclusion out of the White House in policy decisions. Secure the border, but don't shake down the immigration tree and root out the core of what made America great; immigration. Don't set back the desperate real struggle that climate change is and will be. I hope this is just his crazy town start show.
"Even if we discount January storms by arguing that they represent the tail ends of prior seasons"

Why would anyone argue that? It makes no sense.
The Areas America Could Abandon First

You could drive a shrimp boat 1,300 miles along the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Fort Myers and not pass a single county or parish that voted against Donald Trump. The cities and towns along that shoreline had better hope he remembers their support: Without increasing levels of federal spending, climate change could push parts of them out of existence.

So far this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has spent $1.1 billion on what are called Individual Assistance payments, which help households recover from natural disasters. There are no limits on the number of times a household can apply, so the program isn't just a safety net; for some people, it's effectively a subsidy to live in areas that are especially vulnerable to hurricanes, floods and storm surges.

Read more >>

Climate Change: A Matter Of Degree

Think it’s been hot lately? You ain’t seen nothing yet. Average annual temperatures in Colorado are set to rise 2.5 to five degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2050. If that sounds like a modest increase, think again. We’re here to explain exactly how climate change could alter Colorado as you know it.

Read more >>
Quoting 86. luvtogolf:

NOAA is moving their reconnaissance from McDill to Lakeland Regional. The execs from Lakeland Regional have been negotiating with NOAA for months and offered incentives for them bring their aircraft there. Way to negotiate guys! Great win for LR!


I look at this move as more one of common sense ... They got tired of navigating South Tampa's flooding, making it nearly impossible to get to work. Time to move to higher ground.
.
Quoting 101. CaptainComet:



I look at this move as more one of common sense ... They got tired of navigating South Tampa's flooding, making it nearly impossible to get to work. Time to move to higher ground.


That's BS. South Tampa is no different today than when in flooded in '66 with Alma, '68 Gladys, '85 Elena, '93 No Name. Another perfect example of creating hype to enhance the hysteria.
mexico maybe those people will wise up soon. lack of enviromental constraints the towns are now dirty stinky.
Quoting 103. luvtogolf:



That's BS. South Tampa is no different today than when in flooded in '66 with Alma, '68 Gladys, '85 Elena, '93 No Name. Another perfect example of creating hype to enhance the hysteria.

You might want to check the actual data rather than immediately deny.

Your pretty chart says nothing about South Tampa. Nice try.
Quoting 106. luvtogolf:

Your pretty chart says nothing about South Tampa. Nice try.

So...you think that sea level rose by ~1 foot in St. Pete, but didn't rise at all in South Tampa? Explain that one to me, if you'd be so kind. But wait a minute for me to stop laughing first. lol

ETA: Your comment becomes even more ludicrous once you look at the location of the tide gauge in relation to MacDill AFB. LOL

I lived 100 yards from the intercostal in Dunedin for 50 years. There is zero difference today in the water rise than in the early '60s. But amazingly the water has decided to rise in South Tampa. Lol...
Just let the water speak.
Quoting 108. luvtogolf:

I lived 100 yards from the intercostal in Dunedin for 50 years. There is zero difference today in the water rise than in the early '60s. But amazingly the water has decided to rise in South Tampa. Lol...

Let's see...on the one hand, I have your anecdotal claim. OTOH, I have NOAA's tide gauge data. Hmm...I'm gonna go with the data and assert that your perception is incorrect.

Unless, of course, you can produce actual evidence.
Quoting 108. luvtogolf:

I lived 100 yards from the intercostal in Dunedin for 50 years. There is zero difference today in the water rise than in the early '60s. But amazingly the water has decided to rise in South Tampa. Lol...


First, eyeballing is a bad way to measure water rise. Secondly, intracoastal waterways are frequently dredged to combat sedimentary buildup do to natural changes and sea level rise and often have man-made protections in place such as sea walls. Intracoastals in Florida are highly influenced by operations designed to combat issues that crop up, such as dredging and beachline renourishment and therefore are poor measurements of mean sea level rise.
Quoting 110. Misanthroptimist:


Let's see...on the one hand, I have your anecdotal claim. OTOH, I have NOAA's tide gauge data. Hmm...I'm gonna go with the data and assert that your perception is incorrect.

Unless, of course, you can produce actual evidence.


Clearwater Beach is the closest station to the Dunedin area and shows a rise of 3.37 mm per year since 1973, which is about half a foot over that time period. Link

Quoting 112. Naga5000:



Clearwater Beach is the closest station to the Dunedin area and shows a rise of 3.37 mm per year since 1973, which is about half a foot over that time period. Link



Yes, but the original discussion was about Mac Dill AFB. The St. Petersburg tide gauge is just across the bay from the AFB. Dunedin came up in anecdotal response to the relevant data.

However, I did use all of the data, which begins well before the 1960s to arrive at the ~ 1 foot rise that I cited.
Quoting 110. Misanthroptimist:


Let's see...on the one hand, I have your anecdotal claim. OTOH, I have NOAA's tide gauge data. Hmm...I'm gonna go with the data and assert that your perception is incorrect.

Unless, of course, you can produce actual evidence.


That was an anecdote?

I thought it was small-batch artisanal data.
quoting 50. RobertWC:

With Temperatures Hitting 1.2 C Hotter than Pre-Industrial, Drought Now Spans the Globe

That 1.2 degree C is with the temperature spike of the recent El Nino, and apparently according to one of the datasets using the outlier sea surface temperature dataset ERSSTv4. It seems to me that a better picture of global temperature is HadCRUT4 smoothed over a few years, and according to that the past few years altogether have generally been running about .8 degree C above pre-industrial.
116. SuzK
Quoting 45. Bau:

You talk a lot about climate changes and planet overheating and so on. Perfect.
The main problem is the increasing surpopulation of our planet, the cause behind human activity, etc.
So scientists should work much more on solution for that problem than on climate changes, a consequence of surpopulation and not the worst one...!


Overpopulation is, and will continue to be, the unspoken crisis of our day. Indeed it is the one cause behind all that is occurring. I believe the internet and social media are crucial in getting this one fact out into the minds of global society: free love is all well and good til we're all choking on each others' personal methane. Being myself fervently pro-choice on all freedoms, let's reproduce wisely. Higher population=less value in, and respect for, the individual. We already see it all around us, we are so far gone, and not just in the weather. Most of us were introduced in school to the experiment of letting lab rats overmultiply in a contained area, and what the results of overpopulation are. We're living it, and its only just begun. Ah, the Chinese. They already knew the curse 'may you live in interesting times'. I'm fascinated by it all, as though I'm riding a slow motion train wreck. Yet, life is beautiful, no? Yes? Until she turns contrary.
Quoting 101. CaptainComet:



I look at this move as more one of common sense ... They got tired of navigating South Tampa's flooding, making it nearly impossible to get to work. Time to move to higher ground.
Sad but true. I may have to get a lift kit for my Tacoma.
118. OKsky
Come on guys... who needs data meticulously collected over decades?
After all, We have luvtogolf's opinion!
Atlantic Basin - Hurricane Season 2016

What a season! 15 named storms. 7 hurricanes!


Although the seasons 2013-2015 were not as busy:

- 2013 we observed 13 named storms forming, but not many hurricanes.
- 2014 had 8 named storms form, but more hurricanes than the year before.
- 2015 was busier, with 11 named storms forming.

"ACE" totals during the above mentioned years were lower, but the average number of named storms forming (during the 3 "slow" seasons combined) was 10-11 named storms per season , so it was not much below average.

Will the busy era of Atlantic tropical development .. that began in 1995 .. continue?

It will be interesting to see how many named storms occur in 2017.


Actual evidence. Let's see, I lived there for 50 years. Lived it, watched it, swam in it, fished it, boated in it and there has been no change. However some chart says it's increasing by MM's so we should all head for the Skyway and jump because it's over for us. Lol...
Quoting 115. Klipperweather:


That 1.2 degree C is with the temperature spike of the recent El Nino, and apparently according to one of the datasets using the outlier sea surface temperature dataset ERSSTv4. It seems to me that a better picture of global temperature is HadCRUT4 smoothed over a few years, and according to that the past few years altogether have generally been running about .8 degree C above pre-industrial.

Doubtful. HADCRUT is woefully inadequate in its Arctic coverage. The Arctic is warming far faster than the rest of the planet. So, HADCRUT underestimates global warming. HADCRUT isn't bad, but it's not great, either.

GISSTEMP is my data set of choice. It begins in 1880 and covers the Arctic reasonably well.

Of course, we can eliminate both the ocean data and most of the Arctic by just using land temperatures. Those trends will knock your socks off.
Quoting 120. luvtogolf:

Actual evidence. Let's see, I lived there for 50 years. Lived it, watched it, swam in it, fished it, boated in it and there has been no change. However some chart says it's increasing by MM's so we should all head for the Skyway and jump because it's over for us. Lol...

Repeating your unsubstantiated claim doesn't make it true. It does, however, convey how strongly you feel about it. So, if that was you intent, consider it conveyed, sir.
Quoting 96. Xyrus2000:



Actually, at the rate we're going climate destabilization will take care of the problem soon enough. :P


Too soon, unfortunately. The wolves are at the door vis-a-vis climate disruption.
Quoting 123. ChiThom:



Too soon, unfortunately. The wolves are at the door vis-a-vis climate disruption.

My guess is that the late 2030s is when things begin to unravel in a big way.
Quoting 118. OKsky:

Come on guys... who needs data meticulously collected over decades?
After all, We have luvtogolf's opinion!

Teh feels so much better than de data, we all know this. /s These are the same people that think because it was cold for a couple days in their back yard that AGW is a hoax. They simply don't have the faculties to see beyond their own nose.
Quoting 82. luvtogolf:

Like I said, the less educated will criticize because they'll believe anything they read.


Really? Or is that your own projection?
127. OKsky
Quoting 125. SouthTampa:

Teh feels so much better than de data, we all know this. /s These are the same people that think because it was cold for a couple days in their back yard that AGW is a hoax. They simply don't have the faculties to see beyond their own nose.


nah.. I disregard luvtogolf's opinion and accept science because I am less educated and believe anything I read.

Edit: I mean.. come on.. everybody knows that skepticism (something I don't personally practice.. mainly because of my lack of education) revolves around ignoring evidence and going with whatever some dude on the internet claims is true... I put my blind faith in evidence... im a true believer. Perhaps one of these days I will go to school and learn all about luvtogolf, till then I will let evidence be my co-pilot.
I'm not looking forward to temperatures in the teens next week.
I believe half of what I read. Should I jump?
Quoting 120. luvtogolf:

Actual evidence. Let's see, I lived there for 50 years. Lived it, watched it, swam in it, fished it, boated in it and there has been no change. However some chart says it's increasing by MM's so we should all head for the Skyway and jump because it's over for us. Lol...


I used to live in Palm Beach and I have family that's lived down there for over thirty years, including my uncle.
His property, which he's been at for about two decades, now floods on every king tide. That NEVER used to happen until the last few years.

But I guess because you don't notice any difference in ocean height when you drive past the ocean in south Tampa, his experience is meaningless compared to yours, correct?
Good Morning Folks; here are the highs for today. Went from 71 and shorts yesterday morning in Tallahassee to crisp 50's this am after the front came through last evening with about an hour of rain that was most appreciated.  However, the temps will rebound nicely all along the Gulf coast today and right back to Aug-September temps at the start of December.......................................... ..


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

And here is a re-post of a nice article on the Arctic temp record warmth issues:


http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/wacky-weat her-helping-melt-greenland


That pattern may be here to stay because of climate change, says co-author Edward Hanna, an earth scientist at the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom. Cut-off highs, also called blocks because they disrupt the movement of west-to-east air, are becoming more prevalent in the Arctic, he says. Using an index that measures blocking, he calculated in a recent paper that seven of the top 11 blocking events over Greenland since 1851 have occurred since 2007. Hanna says that trend is “clearly related” to rising temperatures in the region, which is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet—a trend known as Arctic amplification.


Quoting 120. luvtogolf:

Actual evidence. Let's see, I lived there for 50 years. Lived it, watched it, swam in it, fished it, boated in it and there has been no change. However some chart says it's increasing by MM's so we should all head for the Skyway and jump because it's over for us. Lol...


By ending your posts with "lol" you cause me to immediately disregard anything you say, especially when that makes you sound like a teenager.
Also agree with the statement below about harsher effects from AGW really starting to emerge in about 15 years from 2030 forward; I will be an old man by then and while I live in North Florida, I grew up and lived in South Florida until 2001. Will definitely make a bucket list trip to Miami Beach in 2030 (if I am still alive) to see if any of jetties I used to fish regularly (South Beach, Haulover Cut, Port Everglades, and Boca Raton Inlet) are underwater by then or closed to fishing because of waves cresting over them.........................................
Quoting 96. Xyrus2000:



Actually, at the rate we're going climate destabilization will take care of the problem soon enough. :P

pretty much
gonna be fun to watch even funnier
when they finally start doing something about something
that has now become too late to do something about it
All weather takes place in a warmer world today.

Thats a no brainer.

Man, looks like one of us has driven a tee shot clear into Tampa Bay

Dats gonna add a few strokes to ones game.


Quoting 124. Misanthroptimist:


My guess is that the late 2030s is when things begin to unravel in a big way.


Always the optimist!

I'm guessing sooner, mainly because societal breakdowns will be running way ahead of the personal survival threats from climate change. Especially after this year, it's clear we don't have enough civilization-level coherence to deal with this. Nationalism, isolationism and blindness to science are accelerants.

The criticals I'm worried about most:

- stability of the East Siberian Sea methane hydrates. Semelitov's group will be publishing soon, and there may be some presentations at AGU. All their monitoring sites are showing increased methane release, but it's not clear if they can show it's exponential. The doubling time on that will be one of the more important things we can learn.

- the reinsurance industry's position on coastal property. One day we'll wake up and discover that anything within a few meters of sea level is uninsurable and unsellable. A gradual process has begun but I don't see how it can remain orderly. Economic crash to follow.

- cereal grain crop failure in multiple breadbaskets at once. So far we've been pretty lucky. World grain reserves are only a 1-2 month supply.
Quoting 129. ChiThom:

I believe half of what I read. Should I jump?


not yet...
Quoting 131. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; here are the highs for today. Went from 71 and shorts yesterday morning in Tallahassee to crisp 50's this am after the front came through last evening with about an hour of rain that was most appreciated. However, the temps will rebound nicely all along the Gulf coast today and right back to Aug-September temps at the start of December.......................................... ..


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database




Amazing that you can literally see the latent heat over the Great Lakes still, especially Huron and Ontario. They're quite warm for December 1st. Not even any ice on Superior yet. Crazy.
Quoting 140. no1der:

The criticals I'm worried about most:

- stability of the East Siberian Sea methane hydrates. Semelitov's group will be publishing soon, and there may be some presentations at AGU. All their monitoring sites are showing increased methane release, but it's not clear if they can show it's exponential. The doubling time on that will be one of the more important things we can learn.

I'll be interested in that, too. To this point, I haven't been very concerned about methane. Of course, if the evidence shows that I should be worried I'll oblige without hesitation.

the reinsurance industry's position on coastal property. One day we'll wake up and discover that anything within a few meters of sea level is uninsurable and unsellable. A gradual process has begun but I don't see how it can remain orderly. Economic crash to follow.

Not one I'm terribly worried about. Economic crashes come and go. That doesn't mean that that particular crash won't be catastrophic in ways I haven't considered, but I think we have one or two more recoveries in us.

cereal grain crop failure in multiple breadbaskets at once. So far we've been pretty lucky. World grain reserves are only a 1-2 month supply.

This is the one that gives me the screaming heebie-jeebies. We're seeing more and more five-sigma weirdness in our weather of late. There is no reason to believe that such events will stop happening. The evidence is that they will become more frequent and/or occur over wider areas and/or over prolonged time periods. It's only a matter of time before we run out of luck and lose a substantial portion of the world's crops one year.

We might live climate, but we eat weather. I think that that's something that isn't appreciated enough.

Water and water rights is another big danger to civilization in a warming world. I firmly believe that there's a pretty good chance for a nuclear war over water or food. The Himalayan glaciers aren't what they used to be. And with three nuclear-armed nations depending on them for fresh water...
Quoting 142. RunningTrauma:



Amazing that you can literally see the latent heat over the Great Lakes still, especially Huron and Ontario. They're quite warm for December 1st. Not even any ice on Superior yet. Crazy.



I'm waiting for the first wide-scale outbreak of the lake-effect machine in my region. London 45 km N/W of me has had about 5 cms so far, just a trace here.


This is a miss for me (I need a more of an NNW flow), for those in the traditional snow belts it should be a good one.




Quoting 130. pipelines:



I used to live in Palm Beach and I have family that's lived down there for over thirty years, including my uncle.
His property, which he's been at for about two decades, now floods on every king tide. That NEVER used to happen until the last few years.

But I guess because you don't notice any difference in ocean height when you drive past the ocean in south Tampa, his experience is meaningless compared to yours, correct?


In most of the Florida underwater in the past computer simulations we frequently see, SE Florida and the Keys are the first to go under then it slowly creeps to the North into the Peninsula; probably what is happening now again with the very low topography in extreme So Fl (and the Everglades). The water level rise is felt most initially in extreme South Florida, then pushes North. Probably also a component related to the underwater topography issues with SE FL and Keys relatively close to deeper Atlantic and Caribbean waters along the Continental Shelf and the very shallow topography for miles from shore once you get into the Eastern Gomex adjacent to Florida.
Quoting 142. RunningTrauma:



Amazing that you can literally see the latent heat over the Great Lakes still, especially Huron and Ontario. They're quite warm for December 1st. Not even any ice on Superior yet. Crazy.


No ice on our ice skating rinks either. :/
Deleted
Great synopsis of the 2016 Hurricane season, enjoyed reading it.

Thanks for mentioning the No-name storm. I think its fits nicely in the on-going discussion of how to classify storms. This storm never got a name as it never had the winds, and if it did, it did not form over water. But it was tropical and it did affect us like Alice and others.

My mom, who lived through Betsy and Camille and many others, called me two days before the flood and the evacuation with a worried tone in her voice asking us to pray. Not scientific I know. But if seasoned residents can sense the danger, shouldn't the meteorologists be able to anticipate and declare a 'Tropical Event' with imminent severe tropical weather related impacts? The impacts are definable and measurable, and that declaration certainly carries more weight than 'it could rain a lot'. And maybe meteorologists would be afforded more tools to analyse and anticipate this kind of 'event'.

Love to hear suggestions on what to call this kind of storm instead of 'Tropical Event'.


THIS:

We might live climate, but we eat weather. I think that that's something that isn't appreciated enough.
i have lived on edgewater drive in clearwater since 1988 and can't tell if the waters higher, however i really wasn't looking and 6 inches isn't much to eyeball. the measurement your using is on pier 60 at clearwater beach, i wonder if the pier has sunk at all into the sand. its a possibility. theres a lot of places in tampa and on tampa bay that have always flooded. bayshore in tampa, and shore acres in st pete.
as we have been steadily warming up on average for the last 30 years or so......at what point do the averages go up also? I mean if it gets warmer every year then surely the averages are increasing....then if the current temps are greater than the 'newer' average then we have some exponential warming to a degree
Quoting 135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


152. k3v
Quoting 150. Tampa969mlb:

... the measurement your using is on pier 60 at clearwater beach, i wonder if the pier has sunk at all into the sand. its a possibility....
I bet those silly scientist didn't think of this! They never double check anything or search for errors in their experimental design or data!
153. elioe
Quoting 148. DFWdad:

Great synopsis of the 2016 Hurricane season, enjoyed reading it.

Thanks for mentioning the No-name storm. I think its fits nicely in the on-going discussion of how to classify storms. This storm never got a name as it never had the winds, and if it did, it did not form over water. But it was tropical and it did affect us like Alice and others.

My mom, who lived through Betsy and Camille and many others, called me two days before the flood and the evacuation with a worried tone in her voice asking us to pray. Not scientific I know. But if seasoned residents can sense the danger, shouldn't the meteorologists be able to anticipate and declare a 'Tropical Event' with imminent severe tropical weather related impacts? The impacts are definable and measurable, and that declaration certainly carries more weight than 'it could rain a lot'. And maybe meteorologists would be afforded more tools to analyse and anticipate this kind of 'event'.

Love to hear suggestions on what to call this kind of storm instead of 'Tropical Event'.





I suggest calling such events "Land Depressions", like the India Meteorological Department does. Last time it designated such storm was in August this season. And I'd suggest that NHC should release full advisory packages for such storms, like they do for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
Quoting 151. 19N81W:

as we have been steadily warming up on average for the last 30 years or so......at what point do the averages go up also? I mean if it gets warmer every year then surely the averages are increasing....then if the current temps are greater than the 'newer' average then we have some exponential warming to a degree



Every ten years the averages are recalculated, currently we are 1981-2010 next will be 1991-2020.

Edit: Noticed the image KOG posted does not use Climate Normals
Quoting 128. ChiThom:

I'm not looking forward to temperatures in the teens next week.


Yeah. We will get a shot here of cold too. What a world! Even ACC can let us down~
Expletive deleted.
<
We have some of the smartest readers on this blog. Just sayin'.
Quoting 124. Misanthroptimist:


My guess is that the late 2030s is when things begin to unravel in a big way.
I will call this optimistic as well.

I may be (very) wrong, but I think it is already unraveling. Rainforests in drought, flooding like never seen, Artic 35 f above normal - for months, Siberia going from hot to cold and back like never before, and the list goes on. The drought in the Middle East is just one factor that has already caused chaos, not to mention Sao Paulo, and the US southeast.

Man, just look at the temps in Alaska the last couple of years, and that weird jet stream....

Quoting 143. Misanthroptimist:


I'll be interested in that, too. To this point, I haven't been very concerned about methane. Of course, if the evidence shows that I should be worried I'll oblige without hesitation.


Not one I'm terribly worried about. Economic crashes come and go. That doesn't mean that that particular crash won't be catastrophic in ways I haven't considered, but I think we have one or two more recoveries in us.


This is the one that gives me the screaming heebie-jeebies. We're seeing more and more five-sigma weirdness in our weather of late. There is no reason to believe that such events will stop happening. The evidence is that they will become more frequent and/or occur over wider areas and/or over prolonged time periods. It's only a matter of time before we run out of luck and lose a substantial portion of the world's crops one year.

We might live climate, but we eat weather. I think that that's something that isn't appreciated enough.

Water and water rights is another big danger to civilization in a warming world. I firmly believe that there's a pretty good chance for a nuclear war over water or food. The Himalayan glaciers aren't what they used to be. And with three nuclear-armed nations depending on them for fresh water...


A catastrophic drought in the U.S. midwest is all it would take. A drought beyond what happened in the 1930s, 50s, and 1988.

This could be another interesting event for the south. Refer to Day 5.
Quoting 98. KoritheMan:
"Even if we discount January storms by arguing that they represent the tail ends of prior seasons"

Why would anyone argue that? It makes no sense.
Sure it makes sense. There is a bigger gap between January and April (let alone May or June) than between January and November.
Quoting 111. Naga5000:



First, eyeballing is a bad way to measure water rise. Secondly, intracoastal waterways are frequently dredged to combat sedimentary buildup do to natural changes and sea level rise and often have man-made protections in place such as sea walls. Intracoastals in Florida are highly influenced by operations designed to combat issues that crop up, such as dredging and beachline renourishment and therefore are poor measurements of mean sea level rise.
That really makes no sense. Let's presume the entire bay was dredged and 10 feet of sand and silt was removed. The water will always come to the same level on the said seawall. Period.

If water has risen 1 foot in my life time the beaches would be gone up to gulf shore blvd on the west coast and A1A on the east coast of FL. No amount of renourishment would stop 730 high tides a year with water a foot higher...the power of the ocean and water is being taken WAY too lightly. Not saying it hasn't risen but no way in hell has it been 1 foot in my lifetime.
We've managed to assault all natural vegetation on both coasts of Fl. and affected natural dune cycles that are now fighting high rise condos and manicured lawns right on the ocean for decades now.
The first step should have been NOT ALLOWING building with in the first 300 yards of any beach to allow natural dune cycles to occur.
We presume since we have it platted on a map that it is etched in stone when all we live on is a bloody sand bar that is SUPPOSED to move naturally.

Quoting 83. bappit:
Guess where this is. Go ahead and cheat if you want. I don't care!

India be the place. You'd never see that on Faux News.
Quoting 159. cynyc2:

I will call this optimistic as well.

I may be (very) wrong, but I think it is already unraveling. Rainforests in drought, flooding like never seen, Artic 35 f above normal - for months, Siberia going from hot to cold and back like never before, and the list goes on. The drought in the Middle East is just one factor that has already caused chaos, not to mention Sao Paulo, and the US southeast.

Man, just look at the temps in Alaska the last couple of years, and that weird jet stream....


These temperature anomalies are mostly weather though the increasing AVERAGES underneath it all is AGW with a signal strong enough only an idiot would ignore. I am more worried about global general circulation amomalies that cause nation scale sinking over a period of many weeks during the growing season and it just stops raining over the affected area.. for example the U.S. midwest or the Ukraine.

When we see a six sigma event though it is probably an indication that the time series is too short to capture the low frequency variations or infrequent high amplitude events and sigma itself is changed by the event. This is GENERAL in geophysical time series where sigma tends to increase with the length of the series as more high amplitude low frequency stuff is captured in the series.
From all the "I don't see no change" comments, I see that confirmation bias is alive and well.

Edit: Maybe they are right. Nothing has changed.
Quoting 163. Abacosurf:

That really makes no sense. Let's presume the entire bay was dredged and 10 feet of sand and silt was removed. The water will always come to the same level on the said seawall. Period.

If water has risen 1 foot in my life time the beaches would be gone up to gulf shore blvd on the west coast and A1A on the east coast of FL. No amount of renourishment would stop 730 high tides a year with water a foot higher...the power of the ocean and water is being taken WAY too lightly. Not saying it hasn't risen but no way in hell has it been 1 foot in my lifetime. We've managed to assault all natural vegetation on both coasts of Fl. and affected natural dune cycles that are now fighting high rise condos and manicured lawns right on the ocean for decades now.
The first step should have been NOT ALLOWING building with in the first 300 yards of any beach to allow natural dune cycles to occur.
We presume since we have it platted on a map that it is etched in stone when all we live on is a bloody sand bar that is SUPPOSED to move naturally.




Actually several decades ago (and after too many beers) I suggested that all housing and other stuctures on barrier islands and low lying coasts should be disposable and made of stuff that would be easy to clean up (compostable cardboard perhaps)
I found an article about Luvtogolf and his peers...

USF Study Looks at Disconnect between Scientists and Citizens

Just how deep is the disconnect between climate scientists and the citizenry who are most likely to be affected by climate change in the Tampa Bay region?
America Dryin'



Summer Heat afterburners will kick in...in 6 months
Quoting 79. luvtogolf:

Trump and his new administration saves 1,000 AMERICAN job at Carrier. Employees who didn't support him during the election are excited to shake his hand tomorrow and say thank you and will now support him! He's taking action -the Trump movement has just begun! And amazingly he'll get ripped by Liberals and criticized for it by the less educated.


There's always a price for something. Do you know what this transaction cost?
Quoting 137. weathermanwannabe:
Will definitely make a bucket list trip to Miami Beach in 2030 (if I am still alive) to see if any of jetties I used to fish regularly (South Beach, Haulover Cut, Port Everglades, and Boca Raton Inlet) are underwater by then or closed to fishing because of waves cresting over them.........................................

I keep telling people they need to go to Glacier National Park before it becomes "There-Used-to-Be-Glaciers-Here National Park."

If we were going to put together a Global Warming bucket-list of things to see before they disappear, what else would be on it? Top of my list would be to go diving on the Great Barrier Reef, while parts of it are still alive.
Quoting 170. FatPenguin:



There's always a price for something. Do you know what this transaction cost?


Let's see $7MM in tax breaks divided by 1,000 jobs is $7,000 per job. Is that close enough? And since the breaks are over a 10 year period, that's $700/year per job.
173. OKsky
Quoting 166. bappit:

From all the "I don't see no change" comments, I see that confirmation bias is alive and well.

Edit: Maybe they are right. Nothing has changed.


I love this image, it can't hurt anyone to stare at it every now and then. :D



EDIT: Here is the corresponding Wikipedia page in case anyone wants more detail.
The " hoax " pulls off another amazing feat -


Global warming blowout: Record highs beat record lows by 51-to-1 ratio in November

Link
175. bwi
Quoting 169. RitaEvac:

America Dryin'



Summer Heat afterburners will kick in...in 6 months


Much of Maryland and Eastern PA got a good soaking yesterday and Tuesday. The trees will be happy (they're still soaking up water since the ground hasn't frozen), and since it had been so dry in November there wasn't much flooding I don't think. Very welcome rain here, although it did affect my bike ride plans!
Quoting 154. nrtiwlnvragn:


Every ten years the averages are recalculated, currently we are 1981-2010 next will be 1991-2020.

Edit: Noticed the image KOG posted does not use Climate Normals

The current official climate normal period defined by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 1961-1990.

Liquified aluminum rims dramatically display power of Tennessee wildfires

THE MELTING POINT OF ALUMINUM IS 1,221 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ...



Read more: Link
Quoting 175. bwi:



Much of Maryland and Eastern PA got a good soaking yesterday and Tuesday. The trees will be happy (they're still soaking up water since the ground hasn't frozen), and since it had been so dry in November there wasn't much flooding I don't think. Very welcome rain here, although it did affect my bike ride plans!


Not nearly enough but yeah it was welcome!
A lot of folks, and trolls, frequently post on here as to why we discuss AGW so much on this site. The fact of the matter is that AGW is probably the biggest story of the last (cause), and this present Century (effect), for modern mankind and this is after all a weather and climate Website..........The climate and weather of the Earth does not discriminate on the basis of race, creed, class or color and crosses national borders and we should all be informed and concerned...................................Just Sayin.
From DeSmogBlog:

Revealed: Most Popular Climate Story on Social Media Told Half a Million People the Science Was a Hoax



The most popular climate change story across social media in the past six months used a debunked survey from the late 1990s to claim that “tens of thousands of scientists” had declared global warming a “hoax”, a DeSmog analysis has found.

Published on YourNewsWire, the story was shared, clicked or “liked” 557,000 times on social media, with 555,000 of those engagements from Facebook. The story's author worked for many years with UK conspiracy theorist David Icke.

DeSmog used the social media analytics tool BuzzSumo to find the most popular climate stories globally over the last six months, using the search term “climate change”.

The YourNewsWire story appears on a site mixed with stories about aliens, conspiracy theories, and anti-Clinton rhetoric together with some serious news. The story was shared on Facebook three times as much as the second most popular article, published by the LA Times.

The LA Times article, from November, reported the comments of California Governor Jerry Brown, who warned President-elect Donald Trump his state would not walk away from its climate change commitments.

Facebook's Fake News Problem

The rise of so called “alternative” and “hyper partisan” news sites, often publishing faked or unverified content under sensational headlines with little to no journalistic rigour, has come into sharp focus after Trump’s election victory.

BuzzFeed News also used analysis from BuzzSumo to reveal that fake election stories were more popular on Facebook than articles produced by journalists on major outlets including the New York Times and NBC News.

As reported by BuzzFeed, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said the company is working on ways to reduce the number of hoax stories appearing on news feeds.

Read more >>

Quoting 169. RitaEvac:

America Dryin'



Summer Heat afterburners will kick in...in 6 months
More rain is on the way for the south east and the Mid-Atlantic states in the next two weeks.
Quoting 172. Greg01:



Let's see $7MM in tax breaks divided by 1,000 jobs is $7,000 per job. Is that close enough? And since the breaks are over a 10 year period, that's $700/year per job.


So one might wonder, if that's all it is then why would the company take it? After all, they stand to save much more than $7 million over 10 years if they ship their operations to Mexico.

The answer is that Carrier's main source of profit is government contracts. Those are worth $5.6 billion or so. The loss of those contracts far outweigh any savings they could get by moving their operations to Mexico.

So what do you think drove them to change their plans? The pocket change in tax breaks or the threat of losing their billion dollar government contracts?
And another new article just posted on the issue of tornado outbreaks as research is done as to potential correlations to AGW or not; a very interesting read:


http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/extreme-to rnado-outbreaks-are-getting-worse-why

One parameter meteorologists use to help identify regions at increased risk of severe weather is called convective available potential energy (CAPE). It’s a measure of the tendency for warm air at Earth’s surface to rise, and most climate models suggest that CAPE will increase as the world’s climate warms. But when Tippett and his colleagues looked at day-to-day estimates for CAPE over the contiguous United States between 1979 (the earliest data available) and 2015, they didn’t see any long-term increase. “This is an unexpected finding,” he notes.

But the team did find a substantial increase in another known risk factor for tornado formation: a parameter called storm relative helicity (SRH), which is related to the differences in wind speed and direction at various altitudes between ground level and 3 kilometers. Current models don’t suggest that this factor will increase as the climate warms, but the new study shows that it has in recent years. That, in turn, hints that scientists may not fully understand the link between SRH and climate.


Quoting 183. Xyrus2000:



So one might wonder, if that's all it is then why would the company take it? After all, they stand to save much more than $7 million over 10 years if they ship their operations to Mexico.

The answer is that Carrier's main source of profit is government contracts. Those are worth $5.6 billion or so. The loss of those contracts far outweigh any savings they could get by moving their operations to Mexico.

So what do you think drove them to change their plans? The pocket change in tax breaks or the threat of losing their billion dollar government contracts?


I wonder if a guarantee of renewal was part of the deal? We may never know. Happy for the 1000 jobs but at what price.
,

Quoting 182. washingtonian115:

More rain is on the way for the south east and the Mid-Atlantic states in the next two weeks.
Indeed, here is the next batch coming early next week.
Quoting 169. RitaEvac:

America Dryin'



Summer Heat afterburners will kick in...in 6 months


The Tampa area has been rain free for weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see us turn Yellow soon.
I do not have access to the new scholarly article from Science on the tornado research but the issue related to SRH (and I do not know if they discuss this in the actual research paper) is interesting in that SRH is usually tied to where the Conus jet settles over the US on any given day and particularly when we see the Fall and Winter frontal passages then the peak tornado periods in the Spring..............As the jet stream is most "uniform" in the Winter but waves when there is a lessened temperature difference between the polar air mass to the North, and the Continental and Ocean air masses to the South, logic would tell me that milder winters, with warmer SST's (in the Gulf in the case of moisture flow into tornado alley in the Spring-early Summer) and milder temps to the North would help create very fertile conditions for tornado formation as the result of large jet stream dips during winter and spring frontal passages.

Here is what the Conus jet look like the past few days when we had some significant tornadic activity (and in the Winter at that) by way of example:





Barbados is also Flooding
Heavy rain and flooding hit Barbados on Tuesday as the Caribbean island celebrated it's 50 years of independence. British royal Prince Harry arrived just in time for the storm and the celebration. "I've never seen rain like this... never," he told a group of welcoming dignitaries. Other nearby islands also reported torrential rains as well. Guadeloupe reported 83mm of rain on Tuesday - about a third of the island's November average - and St Lucia reported 100mm, which is more than half of its monthly average. In St Vincent and the Grenadines, a number of homes were destroyed by the storms, according to the country's online news website iWitness News. Bridges were also damaged and destroyed, and heavy flooding also exposed a number of graves at the Sandy Bay Cemetery. The National Emergency Management Organisation has ordered schools to remain closed on Wednesday, and it has urged people to take appropriate precautions. More torrential downpours are expected across the region on Wednesday. Now that the ground is saturated, there is a high risk of landslides across the Caribbean islands.

Real flooding in Barbados
Raquon Clinkett
Thanks Bob Henson and Dr Jeff. I just have to say, this is still the best website on the internet! Excellent post.
MAPS - 30 Years of Oil and Gas Pipeline Accidents, Mapped

The sheer number of incidents involving America’s fossil fuel infrastructure suggests environmental concerns should go beyond Standing Rock.

[...]



In the map above, you can see the locations of all significant oil and gas pipeline incidents since 1986 in which the federal government provided location data. (Note: In incident cases without longitude and latitude information in the federal data, Stover geolocated incidents based on their county data. Also, he didn’t include data from Alaska or Hawaii.) The incidents are sized bigger and shaded darker as the financial damage associated with each incident increases. Zoom in on the map to get a more fine-grained view of the incident clustering and click on individuals dots to see specifics about related fatalities, injuries, and financial costs.

[...]

--------------------

2,000 Veterans To Form ‘Human Shields’ To Protect Standing Rock Protesters

Their support comes after state officials issued a deadline for protesters to vacate.

Quoting 174. RobertWC:

The " hoax " pulls off another amazing feat -


Global warming blowout: Record highs beat record lows by 51-to-1 ratio in November

Link





Hydra head's...

Everywhere!




🐇🐰
The House Science Committee's tweets are an embarrassment to science

"In the era of fake news, it is downright cringe-worthy when an ostensibly reliable source - a House of Representatives committee, for example - tweets out misleading information. In the era of rapidly increasing climate change, it's also dangerous.
That's what happened on Thursday, when the official, verified House Science Committee account spread an article based on bad science through their Twitter feed. Not only does the article peddle misinformation in order to deny the reality of climate change, but it was published by Breitbart news - which is notorious for its links to white nationalism, misogyny, and antisemitism."

Quoting 194. no1der:
The House Science Committee's tweets are an embarrassment to science

In the era of fake news, it is downright cringe-worthy when an ostensibly reliable source - a House of Representatives committee, for example - tweets out misleading information.
Well, I've read the transcript of one committee meeting back in 1999 that pushed the plant food argument almost from beginning to end. Maybe twitter is just giving more people a look into what actually goes on in these committee meetings.
Quoting 183. Xyrus2000:



So one might wonder, if that's all it is then why would the company take it? After all, they stand to save much more than $7 million over 10 years if they ship their operations to Mexico.

The answer is that Carrier's main source of profit is government contracts. Those are worth $5.6 billion or so. The loss of those contracts far outweigh any savings they could get by moving their operations to Mexico.

So what do you think drove them to change their plans? The pocket change in tax breaks or the threat of losing their billion dollar government contracts?


I think you mean United Technologies which is the parent company of Carrier.
Quoting 192. Xandra:

MAPS - 30 Years of Oil and Gas Pipeline Accidents, Mapped

The sheer number of incidents involving America’s fossil fuel infrastructure suggests environmental concerns should go beyond Standing Rock.

[...]



In the map above, you can see the locations of all significant oil and gas pipeline incidents since 1986 in which the federal government provided location data. (Note: In incident cases without longitude and latitude information in the federal data, Stover geolocated incidents based on their county data. Also, he didn’t include data from Alaska or Hawaii.) The incidents are sized bigger and shaded darker as the financial damage associated with each incident increases. Zoom in on the map to get a more fine-grained view of the incident clustering and click on individuals dots to see specifics about related fatalities, injuries, and financial costs.

[...]

--------------------

2,000 Veterans To Form ‘Human Shields’ To Protect Standing Rock Protesters

Their support comes after state officials issued a deadline for protesters to vacate.




The Army Corps told them to leave before the Governor did. The Corps wants them off the land by December 5th
198. 882MB
One year ago-



One week ago-



Current-



Link

These recent rains from October, and November have left the Island pretty saturated. Now officially 100% NO DROUGHT, GREAT NEWS :)
This is an interesting read, I thought 2016 had the longest span of any season on record, looks like I was right. Though the season is over and it's nice to see these highlights on activity, on a different note, I'd like to see a blog post on the recent wildfires in eastern Tennessee.

Also, Dr. Masters, you mentioned that:

"Matthew battered Cuba as a Category 4 storm, causing $2.6 billion in damage (3.2% of their GDP.) Matthew was Cuba’s second most expensive hurricane on record, behind Hurricane Georges of 1998 ($3 billion in damage in 2016 dollars.)"

According to a monthly weather review sourced on Wikipedia from 2008, Hurricane Ike ranks as Cuba's costliest hurricane on record with more than 7 billion in damage in the country. So if Georges did 3 billion, Matthew would rank 3rd costliest in Cuba's history.



Dec. 1, 2016
Rift in Antarctica's Larsen C Ice Shelf


On Nov. 10, 2016, scientists on NASA's IceBridge mission photographed an oblique view of a massive rift in the Antarctic Peninsula's Larsen C ice shelf. Icebridge, an airborne survey of polar ice, completed an eighth consecutive Antarctic deployment on Nov. 18.

Ice shelves are the floating parts of ice streams and glaciers, and they buttress the grounded ice behind them; when ice shelves collapse, the ice behind accelerates toward the ocean, where it then adds to sea level rise. Larsen C neighbors a smaller ice shelf that disintegrated in 2002 after developing a rift similar to the one now growing in Larsen C.

The IceBridge scientists measured the Larsen C fracture to be about 70 miles long, more than 300 feet wide and about a third of a mile deep. The crack completely cuts through the ice shelf but it does not go all the way across it – once it does, it will produce an iceberg roughly the size of the state of Delaware.

The mission of Operation IceBridge is to collect data on changing polar land and sea ice and maintain continuity of measurements between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) missions. The original ICESat mission ended in 2009, and its successor, ICESat-2, is scheduled for launch in 2018. Operation IceBridge, which began in 2009, is currently funded until 2019. The planned overlap with ICESat-2 will help scientists validate the satellite’s measurements.

More: NASA Nears Finish Line of Annual Study of Changing Antarctic Ice

Image Credit: NASA/Maria-Jose Viñas
Quoting 202. Patrap:



In this case, 2017 is very possibly going to be "the year Larsen C went out to sea" (or at least a significant part of it). Great picture by the way.

Wikipedia - Larsen C :
In 2004, a scientist concluded that although the remaining Larsen C region, which is the furthest south, appears to be relatively stable for now, continued warming could lead to its breakup within the next decade, and news reports in summer of 2016 are suggesting that this process has begun. If disintegration should occur with this last major sector, which is greater in size than the US states of New Hampshire and Vermont combined, then the enormous Larsen Ice Shelf viewed in 1893 by Carl Anton Larsen and his crew aboard the Jason would largely be gone less than a century and a half after its discovery.

NSIDC, Nov 2016 - Sluggish ice growth in the Arctic :
(...) Antarctic sea ice dropping : (...) Ice extent is particularly low on both sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. The rapid early reduction in sea ice cover in this region may create favorable conditions for the break up of the eastern Peninsula ice shelves at the end of austral summer. Similar sea ice trends and weather conditions were present during the spring seasons preceding past ice shelf retreats (e.g., 2001 to 2002). (...)
Patrap, that's a very scary article from NASA you posted about Larsen C.
early morning (tomorrow) in the most polluted part of china, the northern industrial area.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEPRESSION, FORMER TC NADA (BOB05-2016)
5:30 AM IST December 2 2016
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression (Nada) over southwestern Bay of Bengal moved westwards during past six hours with a speed of about 10 km/h, crossed northern Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam (about 20 km south of Karaikal) between 2230 and 2330 IST, and now lays centered overland northern Tamil Nadu near 10.8N 79.7E, about 15 km west of Nagapattinam and 20 km southwest of Karaikal.

It is very likely to move nearly westward and weaken into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.
Quoting 189. weathermanwannabe:

I do not have access to the new scholarly article from Science on the tornado research but the issue related to SRH (and I do not know if they discuss this in the actual research paper) is interesting in that SRH is usually tied to where the Conus jet settles over the US on any given day and particularly when we see the Fall and Winter frontal passages then the peak tornado periods in the Spring..............As the jet stream is most "uniform" in the Winter but waves when there is a lessened temperature difference between the polar air mass to the North, and the Continental and Ocean air masses to the South, logic would tell me that milder winters, with warmer SST's (in the Gulf in the case of moisture flow into tornado alley in the Spring-early Summer) and milder temps to the North would help create very fertile conditions for tornado formation as the result of large jet stream dips during winter and spring frontal passages.

Here is what the Conus jet look like the past few days when we had some significant tornadic activity (and in the Winter at that) by way of example:








The problem with trying to study tornadoes in relation to climate is that tornadic cells are much too small to be accurately resolved in climate simulations. So as the researchers indicate, there is circumstantial evidence that climate change is playing a factor but they don't have enough evidence to make an iron clad conclusion.
Katherine Hayhoe tweets (@KHayhoe):
There is a peer-reviewed study by @NaomiOreskes that shows climate scientists are biased: yes, we tend to UNDERESTIMATE climate impacts!



The abstract reads a bit like an Onion news article. If it were only so.
Shaaah...zam! 12 " of rain in Nov. here in Acme, WA. The Cascade mountains are wringing out the persistent, Pacific storms that keep rolling in. Temps have stayed in the upper 30s to low 40s here at 300' so snow has been abundant in the mountains. Mt. Baker ski area is boasting 92' at the top of panorama dome @ 5000'.
Nvm this repeated comment, I thought that I had lost connection the last time I posted the comment below. Looks like I didn't.
211. MahFL
Quoting 169. RitaEvac:

America Dryin'



The GFS has 5 shots of rain for the SE in the next 14 days, that should end the drought, in the SE.
New Blog out for Dr. Ricky Rood...
Btw in case anyone missed it, I recently released a comprehensive winter forecast with one of my meteorology friends here in college... The combination of background AGW/climate change (associated w/ broadening Hadley Cells, exceptional arctic/high-latitude dipole, etc), twin WQBO regimes, exceptionally low solar activity, and the current mediocre cool neutral-weak NINA ENSO regime (among other things), has definitely increased the volatility and uncertainty associated with this winter's forecast... With the oncoming intrusion of arctic air next week, at least it'll be nice to have a December where every state (& then some) east of the Mississippi River is not record warm, lol.
Link


Quoting 208. bappit:

Katherine Hayhoe tweets (@KHayhoe):
There is a peer-reviewed study by @NaomiOreskes that shows climate scientists are biased: yes, we tend to UNDERESTIMATE climate impacts!



The abstract reads a bit like an Onion news article. If it were only so.


Scientists have long memories, unlike the general population. They remember the public tar and feathering of those scientists proclaiming ozone depletion and acid rain as threats. They also remember the audacious (and false) results trumpeted by Pons and Fleischmann in regards to cold fusion.

Scientists have learned over the years that being conservative (in the scientific sense, not the political one) is safer for ones career. Unfortunately that doesn't always translate as being "safer" for the general populace.
Ozone depletion and acid rain were threats and still are threats. We have laws in place to protect ourselves from those threats. Technological fixes were relatively easy to implement.

I do agree wholeheartedly that the caution scientists use is not always in the public interest. Faced with the known impacts of CO2 pollution for about 30 years, we have accomplished very little. We can make excuses citing the disinformation campaigns of special interests, but overall the response to those campaigns has been quite passive. The lack of interest in the federal lawsuit stewarded by Our Children's Trust is symptomatic of our passive approach.

If it were a football game, one would say that the denialists have been manhandling the scientists in the public space for at least two decades. The scientists have been whipped, putting their faith in the slow moving bureaucratic process of the IPCC. Scientists are fearful of the politicization of scientific knowledge even while that politicization has been ongoing full tilt.
Quoting 202. Patrap:



I didn't do anything I swear

what the hell is happening

the whole dam shelf is breaking off that's what's happening

DAT

KOTG
I'm going to the National Tornado summit in Oklahoma City February 14, anyone else going?
Quoting 190. Skyepony:

Barbados is also Flooding
Heavy rain and flooding hit Barbados on Tuesday as the Caribbean island celebrated it's 50 years of independence. British royal Prince Harry arrived just in time for the storm and the celebration. "I've never seen rain like this... never," he told a group of welcoming dignitaries. Other nearby islands also reported torrential rains as well. Guadeloupe reported 83mm of rain on Tuesday - about a third of the island's November average - and St Lucia reported 100mm, which is more than half of its monthly average. In St Vincent and the Grenadines, a number of homes were destroyed by the storms, according to the country's online news website iWitness News. Bridges were also damaged and destroyed, and heavy flooding also exposed a number of graves at the Sandy Bay Cemetery. The National Emergency Management Organisation has ordered schools to remain closed on Wednesday, and it has urged people to take appropriate precautions. More torrential downpours are expected across the region on Wednesday. Now that the ground is saturated, there is a high risk of landslides across the Caribbean islands.

Real flooding in Barbados
Raquon Clinkett


And in the meantime, those rains have created Havoc in the NorthEast of Trinidad.
Roads washed out, bridges down, electricity lines destroyed, landslides closing roads......
Dread weather.
Good Morning Folks. Here is the look across Conus today; very "wintery" looking for parts but also quite warm today again in the South and the rain is gone from the SE tier and has cleared the TN/Gatlinburg areas................Are some of the fires there still going?......................Looks like the jet is still over that region making wind a factor.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database





And the drought map from yesterday which I forgot to post:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor


thanxs potts foolish having kids in a car during a flood.
And finally,

Im cold....


🐰🐺🐂🐱🐀🐥🐴🐖🐹🐷
230. elioe
so it's Keeper who caused that huge rift in the Larsen C Ice Shelf?

It's HIS fault?

thank goodness, cause I just KNEW it wasn't cause by AGW....

(sarcasm flag ON)
215 bappit:
Scientists are also well aware that the negative press can destroy their careers. Government scientists are always under attack by budgetary constraints but when the press moves in with inaccurate analyses, their careers can be over. So they duck and cover. My father was a scientist for Argonne Nat'l Laboratory. I grew-up with scientists. They had a hard time keeping their jobs. My father was smart enough to keep his career at Argonne alive for his lifetime. He generated positive media stories about his research. He was so good, they couldn't let him go. I can't say the same for his colleagues. They were brilliant, too, but fate let them be terminated. They went to work at the Universities... one of the most brilliant scientists went back to Iowa to run the farm. Literally. I remember him, and many others who have since passed. Our country doesn't support the idea of scientific careers. Except for that problem, I could have been a bio-chemist.
Private industry scientists are another story entirely.
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents via NSIDC for this past month absolutely smashed previous monthly records for November. No matter how you slice it, these jaw-dropping record lows are pretty alarming.
Link

faster and faster
Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson,

The passage "The only year with anything close to this prolonged a tropical cyclone season..." implies that the 2016 Atlantic season is the longest in duration on record - this is not true. During the ongoing HURDAT reanalysis, a storm was uncovered in early January 1951; unless we manage to get a storm active between December 20 and December 31 of this year, the 1951 season currently holds the record for longest Atlantic season, lasting from January 4 to December 11.
Syzygy in 11 days
After 11 days on 14 December 2016 at 00:06 in ♊ Gemini, the Moon will be in Full Moon geocentric opposition with the Sun and this alignment forms next Sun-Earth-Moon syzygy.
Hurricane Ike is Cuba's most costly hurricane.
Roughly $7.8 billion dollars. Georges is a distant second.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009 MWR3174.1
Neap tide
There is low ocean tide on this date. Sun and Moon gravitational forces are not aligned, but meet at big angle, so their combined tidal force is weak.
Lunation 209 / 1162
The Moon is 3 days young. Earth's natural satellite is moving from the beginning to the first part of current synodic month. This is lunation 209 of Meeus index or 1162 from Brown series.
Synodic month length 29.77 days
Length of current 209 lunation is 29 days, 18 hours and 35 minutes. It is 1 hour and 21 minutes longer than next lunation 210 length.
Lunation length longer than mean
Length of current synodic month is 5 hours and 51 minutes longer than the mean length of synodic month, but it is still 1 hour and 12 minutes shorter, compared to 21st century longest.
Here is what I located on the current fire issue for the South; looks like the rains that came though did their job in squelching the fires:

http://wildfiretoday.com/tag/tennessee/


Satellite photo shows virtually no wildfire smoke in southern states

Above: Thursday’s satellite photo shows no large quantities of smoke from wildfires in the southern states. NASA/Wildfire Today.

Thanks to the soaking rains over the last three days the satellite photo taken Thursday shows no large concentrations of smoke from wildfires in the southern states. Of course this photo was taken from hundreds of miles overhead and would not be capable of detecting smoking logs, stump holes, and the smouldering remains of burned structures at Gatlinburg, Tennessee.

Versus this pic from the link below on November 10th:

smoke wildfires south


Cold Moon after 11 days
Next Full Moon is the Cold Moon of December 2016 after 11 days on 14 December 2016 at 00:06.
Let's stop the manipulation of science

Around a hundred scientists ask Europe and the international community to act against endocrine disrupting chemicals. They condemn the use of strategies for manufacturing doubt employed by industries in the climate change battle.
Quoting 240. weathermanwannabe:

more rains coming then a snow storm for the lower lakes trails behind for thursday and Friday of next week with extended lake effect after that

after the middle of next week the drought will be gone for the se
Quoting 244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

more rains coming then a snow storm for the lower lakes trails behind for thursday and Friday of next week with extend lake effect after that

after the middle of next week the drought will be gone for the se


Not completely sure as to the SE as this particular drought is very severe and they will need more rain than just a frontal passage or two to alleviate it much but you are correct as to the snow and storms for the upper mid-west on the way:

U.S. Drought Monitor forSoutheast




And therein lies a tie-in to this past hurricane season; with the exception of the coastal LA no-name storm noted above, one of the Alabama emergency managers noted a few weeks ago that a good soaking from a few inland tropical storms this season making landfall in the Northern Gulf and moving on up towards the Tennessee Valley region as a rain event would have alleviated the current drought.
must be nice

what a stark difference from the eastern carib and western

Quoting 224. pottery:


And in the meantime, those rains have created Havoc in the NorthEast of Trinidad.
Roads washed out, bridges down, electricity lines destroyed, landslides closing roads......
Dread weather.
Mother Ship Earth is in crisis; just break it down in terms that everyone can understand rather that bog it down with politics and polemics; just quote Scotty from Star Trek; "She Can't Take the Strain Captain...................................."
Quoting 249. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Muy Frio


Somebody (I suggest Lonely Planet) needs to get a travel book out pronto: "100 Places to Visit Before the Earth Dies"

I think Yellowstone would be on it, as the declining water table in that region seems to indicate the geysers won't be functioning much longer.

Quoting 171. gunhilda:


I keep telling people they need to go to Glacier National Park before it becomes "There-Used-to-Be-Glaciers-Here National Park."

If we were going to put together a Global Warming bucket-list of things to see before they disappear, what else would be on it? Top of my list would be to go diving on the Great Barrier Reef, while parts of it are still alive.
Inhofe welcomes regulation rollbacks under Trump


Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa

A fierce critic of federal environmental regulations and a consistent climate change skeptic denier, Sen. Jim Inhofe is welcoming a Donald Trump presidency with elation.

“I'm still celebrating,” said Inhofe, R-Tulsa, who spoke briefly with The Oklahoman on Monday during a trip to Oklahoma...




Quoting 199. Ryan1000:

This is an interesting read, I thought 2016 had the longest span of any season on record, looks like I was right. Though the season is over and it's nice to see these highlights on activity, on a different note, I'd like to see a blog post on the recent wildfires in eastern Tennessee.

Also, Dr. Masters, you mentioned that:

"Matthew battered Cuba as a Category 4 storm, causing $2.6 billion in damage (3.2% of their GDP.) Matthew was Cuba’s second most expensive hurricane on record, behind Hurricane Georges of 1998 ($3 billion in damage in 2016 dollars.)"

According to a monthly weather review sourced on Wikipedia from 2008, Hurricane Ike ranks as Cuba's costliest hurricane on record with more than 7 billion in damage in the country. So if Georges did 3 billion, Matthew would rank 3rd costliest in Cuba's history.



I'm using EM-DAT as my source of damage estimates; they give Ike's damage total in Cuba at $2.1 billion (2008 dollars). There's a lot of uncertainty in these sorts of damage estimates.

Jeff Masters



Dec. 1, 2016
Rift in Antarctica's Larsen C Ice Shelf


On Nov. 10, 2016, scientists on NASA's IceBridge mission photographed an oblique view of a massive rift in the Antarctic Peninsula's Larsen C ice shelf. Icebridge, an airborne survey of polar ice, completed an eighth consecutive Antarctic deployment on Nov. 18.

Ice shelves are the floating parts of ice streams and glaciers, and they buttress the grounded ice behind them; when ice shelves collapse, the ice behind accelerates toward the ocean, where it then adds to sea level rise. Larsen C neighbors a smaller ice shelf that disintegrated in 2002 after developing a rift similar to the one now growing in Larsen C.

The IceBridge scientists measured the Larsen C fracture to be about 70 miles long, more than 300 feet wide and about a third of a mile deep. The crack completely cuts through the ice shelf but it does not go all the way across it – once it does, it will produce an iceberg roughly the size of the state of Delaware.

The mission of Operation IceBridge is to collect data on changing polar land and sea ice and maintain continuity of measurements between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) missions. The original ICESat mission ended in 2009, and its successor, ICESat-2, is scheduled for launch in 2018. Operation IceBridge, which began in 2009, is currently funded until 2019. The planned overlap with ICESat-2 will help scientists validate the satellite’s measurements.

More: NASA Nears Finish Line of Annual Study of Changing Antarctic Ice

Image Credit: NASA/Maria-Jose Viñas

Global Warming Research in Danger as Trump Appoints Climate Skeptic to NASA Team

"Donald Trump’s first NASA transition team pick is Christopher Shank, a Hill staffer who has said he is unconvinced of a reality that is accepted by the vast majority of climate scientists: that humans are the primary driver of climate change. Shank previously worked for Rep. Lamar Smith, a Republican congressman who played a key role in dragging out debates on the basic nature of climate change at a time when the science is settled and action is urgent.

Shank has criticized the type of scientific data NASA regularly releases. As part of a panel in September 2015 at Arizona State University’s Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes, he said, “The rhetoric that’s coming out, the hottest year in history, actually is not backed up by the science — or that the droughts, the fires, the hurricanes, etc., are caused by climate change, but it’s just weather.”

He shrugged off the severity of the climate crisis, criticizing “the rhetoric about, let’s call this climate pollution, which is CO2, which I’m emitting here today.” "
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Webcam - O Higgins
O Higgins is a live webcam located in the Country of Antarctica
Quoting 242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Cold Moon after 11 days
Next Full Moon is the Cold Moon of December 2016 after 11 days on 14 December 2016 at 00:06.

Spring tide
There is high Full Moon ocean tide on this date. Combined Sun and Moon gravitational tidal force working on Earth is strong, because of the Sun-Earth-Moon syzygy alignment.