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Record-Setting Otto to Bring Thanksgiving Flooding to Central America

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:07 PM GMT on November 23, 2016

The latest hurricane ever recorded to form in the Caribbean Sea, Hurricane Otto, has thankfully weakened to a tropical storm, but is still poised to make a most unwelcome visit to Central America on Thursday, when it will move ashore over southern Nicaragua. Otto will become the first Atlantic tropical cyclone on record to make landfall on (U.S.) Thanksgiving Day. Otto’s intensification to a hurricane on November 22 came about a day later than the previous latest hurricane observed in the Caribbean, Hurricane Martha of 1969. The last time a hurricane was seen this late in the year anywhere in the Atlantic was in 2005, when Hurricane Epsilon meandered across the Central Atlantic as a Category 1 hurricane on December 2 - 7. Otto became a hurricane at a latitude of 10.5°N—unusually far to the south in the Caribbean. Only Hurricane Martha, which became a hurricane at latitude 10.3°N on November 22, 1969, and maintained Category 1 strength as it moved south to 10.0°N on November 23, was a hurricane at a lower latitude in the Caribbean.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Otto taken at 1:24 pm EST November 22, 2016. At the time, Otto was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, and was the latest-forming hurricane ever observed in the Caribbean Sea. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Hunters find a weaker Otto
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft finished a mission into Otto around 9 am EST Wednesday, and found that the eyewall of Otto had collapsed. NHC rated Otto’s top surface winds at 70 mph at 10 am EST Wednesday, but the Hurricane Hunters did not find any surface winds in excess of 60 mph, and the NHC conceded in their discussion that their 70 mph estimate may have been too high. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots was likely to credit for Otto’s weakening, as strong upper-level winds out of the south-southeast were able to drive dry air to the south of Otto into its core. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed a considerable reduction in Otto’s heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, but there was an increase in heavy thunderstorms along a band well to the north of the center, and these thunderstorms will bring very heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras on Wednesday and Thursday. Otto had decent moisture to work with—about 65% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29°C (84°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Panama radar showed that Otto’s heavy rain bands were mostly offshore from that nation on Wednesday morning.

Track forecast for Otto
The track forecast for Otto is straightforward. A ridge of high pressure is building in to the north of the storm, and this ridge will guide Otto west-northwest and then west at an increasing forward speed. Otto will make landfall in southern Nicaragua late Thursday morning. It should take about a day for Otto to cross southern Nicaragua, which is much less mountainous than other parts of Central America. In fact, much of Otto’s path could be over Lake Nicaragua, one of the top-ten biggest freshwater lakes in the Americas. With land influence at a relative minimum, Otto is expected to be a tropical storm when it enters the Pacific on Friday. In this case, Otto would keep its name in the Pacific. Should Otto dissipate, but its remnants manage to redevelop in the Pacific, the new storm will take the name Virgil from the Eastern Pacific list.

More than a dozen “crossover” tropical cyclones have been recorded, most of them moving from Atlantic to Pacific rather than vice versa. The most recent was Hermine (2010), which formed as an East Pacific tropical depression before entering the western Gulf and striking the northeast coast of Mexico as a tropical storm. Otto would be the first crossover storm in modern records to keep its name in going from one basin to another, since NHC’s previous practice was to rename such systems. All of Otto’s predecessors in this realm--including Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (1996)--underwent a name change when moving from Atlantic to Pacific or vice versa.

Intensity forecast for Otto
Conditions favor slow intensification of Otto until landfall. Sea surface temperatures will be unusually warm for this time of year--around 29°C (84°F). The atmosphere will be moistening through Thursday, and vertical wind shear is expected to abate slightly, to 10 - 15 knots, by Thursday morning. Our most reliable intensity model, the HWRF, predicted in its 06Z (1 am EST) Wednesday run that Otto would make landfall as a strong Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The 12Z Wednesday run of the SHIPS model gave Otto a 12% chance of reaching Category 2 strength with top sustained winds of 90 knots (105 mph) by Thursday morning. Regardless of how much intensification occurs, heavy rain will be the main threat from the storm, with rainfall amounts in excess of 10” in mountainous areas very likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America.


Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricanes recorded in the Caribbean Sea in November and December between 1851 and 2016. Image credit: NOAA.

A rare Thanksgiving Day storm
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center will be issuing storm advisories on Thanksgiving Day for the second year in a row on Thursday. Last year, record-warm ocean waters helped Hurricane Sandra off the Pacific coast of Mexico become only the second Thanksgiving Day hurricane in modern records for the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific, and the first major hurricane. Sandra set the record for the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, as the storm maintained at least Category 3 strength from 00 UTC November 26 through 00 UTC November 27 (previous record: an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC November 24.) When Sandra peaked as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds at 1 am EST (06 UTC) Thanksgiving Day, November 26, it became the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: ”Wrong Way" Lenny on November 18, 1999.) The only other Thanksgiving Day hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere was Hurricane Karl of 1980, which spun harmlessly as a minimal Category 1 hurricane far out in the central North Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day that year.


Figure 3. VIIRS satellite image of the Eastern Pacific’s Hurricane Sandra taken on November 25, 2015—the day before Thanksgiving—when Sandra was an intensifying Category 3 storm. Image credit: NASA.

Several other weaker storms have had NHC forecasters issuing advisories on Thanksgiving Day. This includes 1987’s Tropical Storm Keith, which struck Florida as a tropical storm on Wednesday, November 23, and persisted as a strong tropical storm east of Florida until midday Thanksgiving Day (November 24). In 1998, minimal Tropical Storm Nicole weakened to a depression east of Bermuda early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26), with advisories discontinued at 10 am EST. Nicole did get a new lease on life several days later, becoming a hurricane on November 30 and persisting to become one of just five Atlantic hurricanes on record during the month of December. In the hyperactive Atlantic season of 2005, Tropical Storm Delta roamed the eastern Atlantic on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). And in 2011, a weakening Tropical Storm Keith well out to sea in the eastern Pacific prompted advisories on Thanksgiving Day (November 24). Prior to the establishment of NHC as we know it, an unnamed tropical storm dissipated on Thanksgiving Day 1953 (November 26) well east of Bermuda. Hawaii takes the cake for the worst U.S. hurricane-related impacts during Thanksgiving Week: Hurricane Iwa passed near Kauai on Tuesday, November 23, 1982, during the run-up to the “super” El Niño of 1982-83. Iwa caused one death and inflicted $250 million in damage in Kauai.

Have a great Thanksgiving holiday, everyone, and we’ll be back on Thursday to look at how Central America will do with Otto.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks.
What's the Red Dots on the first image above ?
Fires ??
Quoting 1. pottery:

Thanks.
What's the Red Dots on the first image above ?
Fires ??


Yes, fires.

Dr. M.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCE
11:00 PM PhST November 23 2016
==============================

"MARCE" has maintained its strength as it continues to move westward towards Mindanao

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Marce (1004 hPa) located at 8.9N 129.6E or 365 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gustiness up to 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
-----------------------------
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

Visayas region
-------------------
Southern Leyte
Bohol
Cebu
Siquijor
Negros Oriental

Mindanao region
-------------------
Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island
Surigao del Sur
Dinagat Islands
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Misamis Oriental
Camiguin

Additional Information
----------------------------------------
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 200 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Sea travel is risky over the northern seaboard of northern Luzon.

Expected to make landfall over Surigao provinces tomorrow afternoon or early evening.

Expected to exit the PAR by Monday morning (November 28).

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.
Never seeing no one - - nice again....
Thank you...Still have active fires in the S.E. too....

thanks for the update have a great day
16L/TS/O/CX
My, the last two years (edit: three) have been quite crazy regarding tropical cyclone activity worldwide. And now, "The latest hurricane ever recorded to form in the Caribbean Sea (...)".
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen...
Quoting 9. no1der:

Trump's Climate Head Fake
from yesterday's NYT interview:

TRUMP: You know the hottest day ever was in 1890-something, 98.


We are so screwed.
Quoting 9. no1der:

I think right now - well, I think there is some connectivity. There is some, something. It depends on how much. It also depends on how much it's going to cost our companies. You have to understand, our companies are noncompetitive right now.
What's most incredible--and most dispiriting to me--is that final sentence, repeated above, is what today's "all sides are equal" journalists are calling a "softened stance" on climate change...

The people of this planet are in so much trouble...
Quoting 9. no1der:



I guess word salad is better than word cyanide
Typo

Only Hurricane Martha, which became a hurricane at latitude 10.3°F on November 22,
do they celebrate thanksgiving anywhere in CM?.....they may just curious...
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:

What's most incredible--and most dispiriting to me--is that final sentence, repeated above, is what today's "all sides are equal" journalists are calling a "softened stance" on climate change...

The people of this planet are in so much trouble...



He's like Vizzini from The Princess Bride, only less eloquent and with a smaller vocabulary.
Quoting 2. JeffMasters:



Yes, fires.

Dr. M.

Thanks.
The rains will be good for that.
Thanks for the new blog entry and have a peaceful holiday.

Meanwhile in Australia:
Four dead, hospitals pushed to limits, government review ordered: thunderstorm asthma
November 23 2016 - 8:28PM
At least four people have died after the sudden outbreak of "thunderstorm asthma", prompting an investigation into the emergency response to the medical crisis that swept across Melbourne on Monday.
Forty-eight hours after the massive asthma event pushed the city's healthcare system to its limits, two more people were confirmed dead. ...


What is 'thunderstorm asthma' and what to do if you have it?
Quoting 14. georgevandenberghe:



I guess word salad is better than word cyanide

It's been my experience that a person's inability to speak coherently is a reflection of their inability to think coherently. Can't recall ever having encountered an exception. So, on the basis of Trump's...er....discourse on AGW, the nicest thing I can say is: "Houston, we have a problem, a really, REALLY BIG PROBLEM!"
Quoting 20. ACSeattle:


It's been my experience that a person's inability to speak coherently is a reflection of their inability to think coherently. Can't recall ever having encountered an exception. So, on the basis of Trump's...er....discourse on AGW, the nicest thing I can say is: "Houston, we have a problem, a really, REALLY BIG PROBLEM!"


Actually if a person is really on the ball, they can tweak a person like that into saying anything they want.
Quoting 11. GeoffreyWPB:



Interesting, Otto's outer bands seem to have stronger storms than the core itself. Could that affect any potential strengthening?
Quoting 9. no1der:
I think he deserves a chance.
Little bag of mixed news:

Bolivia schools close early as drought empties reservoirs
BBC, 23 November 2016
President Evo Morales declared a national state of emergency on Monday.

New Zealand: East Coast temperatures soar well into the 30s
Last updated 16:36, November 23 2016
The North Island's East Coast has ticked up a scorcher of a day, with Napier, Hastings and Gisborne all recording their hottest November days.
MetService said Napier hit 33.3 degrees Celsius, the hottest day since records began in 1868. Hastings got to at least 32C, while Gisborne was 32.7C, sneaking past the previous November record of 32.4C. Wairoa got to 33C. ...



Source.

Unseasonably Warm Tomorrow
Iceland Review, November 23, 2016 11:53
November is a month when the temperature map of the country is typically blue, indicating frost in every region. Tomorrow, however, neither the temperature map nor the people should be blue. On the contrary, warm winds will blow in every corner of the country, turning the map unseasonably reddish. Tomorrow's highs will be between 8 and 10C (46-50F) in parts of the north, east and south. The warm, south and southwesterly winds will bring considerable rain, especially in the west. ...

No global warming in Siberia, Donald Trump?
By The Siberian Times reporter, 21 November 2016
Russia's coldest region is up to 20C milder than average this month, say meteorologists.
The Arctic district of Verkhoyansk, one of the coldest in habited places in the world, recorded a temperature of 19.2C on 18 November, some 19C above average.
The district is in Yakutia, also known as the Sakha Republic, and in parts of the Arctic north of this region temperatures are even more surprising.
In the village of Olenek on the same day weathermen recorded minus 5.1C, a record warm. In the remote port of Tiksi, it was only minus 3C.
In Chukotka, on the Arctic shore, a November record was registered of a remarkable 4C, with a daily average of 20C milder than usual. ...
Still, the latest weather is not consistent with Western Siberia and the Urals facing extreme cold. ...
More with a map see link above.


The video below is from the cold part of Siberia:

Boiling water in the cold. It is an unrealistic beautiful video (Siberia Nov 20)

Air pollution is 'top health hazard in Europe'
DW, 23.11.2016
The EU's environment watchdog has said air pollution is "the single largest environmental health hazard in Europe." Around 467,000 premature deaths in 41 European countries were linked to air pollution in 2013. ...
Unusually late Hurricane Otto kills three in Panama and barrels towards Costa Rica which hasn't seen a storm this big since 1851

Hurricane Otto clocks in late in the season by skimming Panama as a Category 1 storm
The storm has so far killed three, including a little boy who died when a tree fell on him
Four thousand people have been evacuated from the coast of Costa Rica
The storm packed 75 mile and hour winds and heavy rains



Workers cut a tree that fell and killed a boy outside a school in Panama City on Tuesday


Pictured: A mudslide which killed two people in the community of Arraijan, outside of Panama City

For complete article at Daily Mail click link Link
Barbamz - It has to be really cold and dry for that boiling water trick to work. I've tried it a few times up here and it was never cold enough... Those are some scary warm temps you posted...

The unusual warmth seems to have left Anchorage for a bit, not that it won't be back.... Temps in the low teens to low 20s... I see on the wundermap one station by me is reported +9F... Most are 15-17F. Last two years thanksgiving weekend is has snowed - so we shall see if this holds true this weekend. Snow is forecast for tomorrow, but it doesn't always pan out. (to use a gold mining term)
Quoting 20. ACSeattle:


It's been my experience that a person's inability to speak coherently is a reflection of their inability to think coherently. Can't recall ever having encountered an exception. So, on the basis of Trump's...er....discourse on AGW, the nicest thing I can say is: "Houston, we have a problem, a really, REALLY BIG PROBLEM!"


According to one commentator, at least, he has never read a book, at least as a result, and that further, he is believed to be incapable of actually doing that.

If you want to hear the details, go to craigphulet.com (caution; this guy is not pretty, but he does document his material, otr most of it, as you will see on his site. Scroll down to the most recent radio interview at that site and listen up.
Quoting 26. Dakster:

Barbamz - It has to be really cold and dry for that boiling water trick to work. I've tried it a few times up here and it was never cold enough...

Greetings to Alaska, Dakster! Reminds me to have a look at the volcano cams over there. Here the current pic from Redoubt. Looks like a fair morning, and not that cold (25.7F) ...


Source.
New fire just south of Warren County,TN...Folks here need to be alert...Bone dry, and wind gusting to near 30 mph...

Quoting 22. MrTornadochase:


Interesting, Otto's outer bands seem to have stronger storms than the core itself. Could that affect any potential strengthening?

If it had more time it would probably become a cat 5 because remember Matthew had the same blob feature
I hope everyone enjoys there holiday weekend and spend it happily with friends ad family.I just came by to spread a positive message among all the fear mongering and arguing.Over&Out.
Corn Island, Nicaragua
Link

<>a href="http:// " target="_blank">Link


How to talk to your climate denier uncle this Thanksgiving

“Making America great again means denying Chinese hoaxes.”


CREDIT: AP Photo/Julio Cortez

The controversial and shocking results of the 2016 presidential election are causing ripple effects throughout the world, and the aftermath is also getting some people uninvited to Thanksgiving. If you’re a progressive who plans on spending the holiday with family members who agree with the president-elect’s views 100 percent, things could get ugly.

Some families are sticking to safer topics. Everyone likes to talk about the weather. It affects all of us, it’s always happening, and it’s uncontroversial. So when you spend the holidays with extended family, one of your relatives who denies the reality of climate science may see a little snow as an easy opportunity to land a non-political jab about climate change, or mention that the next U.S. president says that it’s all a Chinese hoax.

It’s easy to get blindsided, so here are some key points to help everyone stick to the facts, and ensure you don’t spend the holidays caught in a morass of climate denial if it’s chilly.

Read more >>

The site has javascript errors that are impacting functionality.
Admins... Plz, fwd this on to the webdevs, thx! :D


https://www.wunderground.com/wuflag/flag.html?typ e=blog&handle=JeffMasters&flag=spam&entrynum=3511& tstamp=-1&commentnum=PensacolaDoug|34

Failed to load resource: the server responded with a status of 500 ()
turn north at least a bit so we can get a sprinkle in November
Quoting 22. MrTornadochase:


Interesting, Otto's outer bands seem to have stronger storms than the core itself. Could that affect any potential strengthening?
After 40 plus hours of overcast and no rain, it started again at about noon, and slowly ramped up to heavy precip.

Boquete/Palmira WU PWS station:

2.96" so far today, rate 1.66"/hour. (This station is very flaky - the automatic website update feature keeps hanging.)

Yellow pin = my location:



Hope everyone who observes it has a terrific Thanksgiving and everyone else a terrific day!




GFS and CMC ensembles show another crazy storm doing a beautiful loop and impacting us twice lol that would be so FUN!!!
Often set in this region at this time of year - usually start of dry season - for slash and burn farming practices.

Quoting 1. pottery:

Thanks.
What's the Red Dots on the first image above ?
Fires ??
Quoting 23. Kenfa03:

I think he deserves a chance.


Trump's history in the public eye goes back decades. He's had plenty of chances to come off as an empathic, intelligent, person. He has proven in the past, and more recently in the election, exactly what kind of person he is.

He doesn't deserve a chance, but he got one. We can only hope the damage he causes to education, science, etc. in this country can be kept to a minimum. Maybe there's enough reasonable people left on the republican side that the NWS, NOAA, NHC, etc. make it through relatively unscathed but I'm not holding my breath.
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

16L/TS/O/CX


If Otto does move across the San Carlos Plains to Lake Nicaragua, it won't get much help from the lake which has an average temperature of 24 C, and with strong winds, will probably get even cooler.
Quoting 47. PensacolaDoug:

And 42 and 44


comment 42 is straight talk and nothing but facts, noone can objectively look at that and point out any falsehoods in what Xyrus said. hence the 18 likes. yes he does 'deserve a chance' to govern (something he has not done), but all signs point to a terrible 4 years, especially for the environment and thus the climate...andddd i just tied it back into weather/climate so it's not off topic :P
Well, I knew that the low ice cover of Arctic is record-breaking. I also knew that the temperatures north of 80N are also sticking to around 260-265 K, when they should be at almost 245 K. But, I guess that also it's exceptional to have only 60%-80% of ocean covered by ice at North Pole at this time of year?



Ps. Even though my thoughts about Arctic halocline have no scientific value (they fall within error limits of most up-to-date professional studies, so they can not be proven or disproven using correct methodology), I haven't lost my faith in them. While refining them, and digging through variable sources, all kinds of interesting details emerge, such as this :)

Screenshot 2130z. Source/latest images: Eumetsat MPE (animation, link). Impressive squall line in the Mediterranean Sea - unseasonal bow shape courtesy of a meandering jet stream (link) - currently moving past the French coast (image link), accompanied by strong wind gusts. See also estofex.org (link), storm forecast issued: Tue 22 Nov.
"A level 2 was issued for parts of NE Spain and S France mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for NW Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes. (...)"

* Rain radar loop (link).
It's political and not the blog topic. Bias, pure and simple.
we are seeing a different side of Otto. the storm is just like my dog Otto he has all kind of moods.
Extremely bad timing

Most expensive destroyer in U.S. fleet loses propulsion in Panama Canal

Colliding with the canal walls. Water 'intrusion'. Some heads in engineering will roll. And maybe some commanding officers' heads too.

More details from Popular Mechanics:

The Navy's New Stealth Destroyer Broke Down in the Panama Canal: The USS Zumwalt experienced an "engineering casualty" and collided with the canal walls.



I read in the previous blog that there was ship traffic backing up yesterday on the Caribbean side of the Panama Canal. The above incident happened Monday--I haven't seen anything about the Panama Canal having been closed--but I'd think that getting a tug in to tow a disabled destroyer and aligning the ship so that it didn't hit the canal walls (again) would cause delays. The USS Zumwalt was traveling from the Caribbean side to the Pacific side.
Looking better in this 2100z microwave pass (source : Navy/NRL-TC) :
Quoting 40. CaribBoy:





GFS and CMC ensembles show another crazy storm doing a beautiful loop and impacting us twice lol that would be so FUN!!!



The Euro is showing an area of low pressure hanging around there too. Doesn't look tropical, perhaps a subtropical storm? Should increase your rain chances a lot either way - hopefully it'll give you a lot of it. :)
elioe when does the Gulf of Bothnia (Pohjanlahti) usually start to freeze?
More on the U.S.S. Zumwalt (with video) Commissioned in Baltimore a month ago. I was there. I hadn't been to a commissioning ceremony before, not my branch and all. But it was in Baltimore, so I went. It was something to see.
Quoting 57. BaltimoreBrian:

elioe when does the Gulf of Bothnia (Pohjanlahti) usually start to freeze?


Average for reference period 1961-1990:
Northernmost extent (at Tornio): first ice October 31, beginning of permanent ice cover November 6
Southernmost extent (at the skerry of Märket): first ice January 31, beginning of permanent ice cover February 9

So, pretty variable :)
I think the blog ate my reply to elioe

It does take a while to freeze all the way south then. The arctic sea ice maps don't show much sea ice there yet but they are not always accurate for smaller gulfs and bays.

Hey Nathan. You at home or in Millersville?
Quoting 54. 999Ai2016:

Looking better in this 2100z microwave pass (source : Navy/NRL-TC) :


HH are finding a slightly stronger storm too
Quoting 60. BaltimoreBrian:



Yeah, and I guess those maps always show only remote sensing data. I remember having seen NSIDC maps show patches of ice in Gulf of Finland during the height of summer, lol. Weather systems etc. can affect the reliability of such maps. For up to date, non-remotely observed conditions, click picture:

I want to thank Dakster and NNYer for their nice comments in the previous blog. I enjoyed making the lists and reading the articles but I simply don't have time to do that anymore.
.
Otto undergoing explosive intensification right now.. very impressive!!!
Is anyone having certification issues with https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov on Firefox ?
Haven't seen anything like it since Patricia...if ever. 20 mb in around 1.5 hours. 14 mb/hr... insane
the 7pm advisory is not out yet... I'm guessing hurricane re-upgrade.
EDIT: Indeed it is.
7:00 PM EST Wed Nov 23
Location: 11.2N 81.8W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Well, looks like Otto is bombing out. I hope the people are prepared - this could be a strong hurricane when it gets to land.
I seriously think this is going to be an intensifying major at the next update. This has got to be unprecedented for late November.
Quoting 67. MahFL:

Is anyone having certification issues with https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov on Firefox ?


Yes. Certificate.
Quoting 42. Xyrus2000:



Trump's history in the public eye goes back decades. He's had plenty of chances to come off as an empathic, intelligent, person. He has proven in the past, and more recently in the election, exactly what kind of person he is.

He doesn't deserve a chance, but he got one. We can only hope the damage he causes to education, science, etc. in this country can be kept to a minimum. Maybe there's enough reasonable people left on the republican side that the NWS, NOAA, NHC, etc. make it through relatively unscathed but I'm not holding my breath.
You are assuming he will do damage. You really don't know what he's going to do. None of us do. This is not the blog topic but since the powers that be have decided to let this one stay, I figure I'm allowed to comment on it.
Quoting 71. Windsofchange77:

I seriously think this is going to be an intensifying major at the next update. This has got to be unprecedented for late November.

Well, although possible, it is unlikely to become a major in less than three hours. However, we may be looking at a Category 2 storm if the strengthening trend continues.
Otto is explosively intensifying, with a much improved appearance on satellite and some eyebrow-raising recon observations. Even if you argue the 100kt flight/surface winds are rain-contaminated, there still appear to be several valid 85kt surface obs. Otto may become an extremely dangerous hurricane prior to making landfall in Nicaragua tomorrow.
981mb with 93 knots at the surface? What the frig are they feeding that thing??!!
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 0° (N) from the eye center.

981mb (Surface) 305° (from the NW) 93 knots (107 mph)
I am not sure how to upload pics but they are some pics from the nacion.com that is the main newspaper in CR that show rivers getting out of their flow. you may see the pics in there.
https://www.facebook.com/lanacioncr/
Quoting 42. Xyrus2000:



Trump's history in the public eye goes back decades. He's had plenty of chances to come off as an empathic, intelligent, person. He has proven in the past, and more recently in the election, exactly what kind of person he is.

He doesn't deserve a chance, but he got one. We can only hope the damage he causes to education, science, etc. in this country can be kept to a minimum. Maybe there's enough reasonable people left on the republican side that the NWS, NOAA, NHC, etc. make it through relatively unscathed but I'm not holding my breath.


Obama ended NASA's focus on manned spaceflight and gave it a new mission...as a Muslim outreach.

I'm just wondering. Is this the kind of damage to science you're talking about, because if so...I cannot imagine how Trump can top this whopper of a set back!

Barack Obama: Nasa must try to make Muslims 'feel good' - July 2010

The head of the Nasa has said Barack Obama told him to make "reaching out to the Muslim world" one of the space agency's top priorities.
Deleted comment due to double post caused by NO SUCH ENTRY error.
It may even be a major now...

Quoting 74. Bobbyweather:


Well, although possible, it is unlikely to become a major in less than three hours. However, we may be looking at a Category 2 storm if the strengthening trend continues.

Quoting 83. Windsofchange77:

It may even be a major now...


Close but not quite. In the next couples of hours it might.
85. SLU
979mb

Quoting 85. SLU:

979mb




Huh. The Caribbean is a weird, bipolar place.
NHC: *Anticipates strengthening*
Caribbean: "Ha, have a taste of shear, followed by random and sudden explosive deepening"
Short notice to the blog admins: When you try to access the blog from the main tropical site (as I usually do):
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
it still links to the previous blog, not the current one.

Edit: Got fixed.
89. Ed22
Quoting 11. GeoffreyWPB:


Intensification taking place now, probability topping out at 85 or 90 mph.


From CIMSS..
Quoting 86. JrWeathermanFL:



Huh. The Caribbean is a weird, bipolar place.
NHC: *Anticipates strengthening*
Caribbean: "Ha, have a taste of shear, followed by random and sudden explosive deepening"

LOL that's so true.
BTW, The 00Z ATCF has Otto at 75 kt, 977 mb. So assuming the same intesification trend, it might approach major hurricane status.
But my prediction is that major status will be achieved after 10pm unless it pulls a Patricia.
Bumpy ride for Recon


00:43:00Z 11.117N 81.900W 698.9 mb (~ 20.64 inHg) 2,990 meters (~ 9,810 feet)
00:43:30Z 11.117N 81.867W 696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg) 2,978 meters (~ 9,770 feet)
00:44:00Z 11.133N 81.850W 711.8 mb (~ 21.02 inHg) 2,800 meters (~ 9,186 feet)
00:44:30Z 11.167N 81.833W 703.6 mb (~ 20.78 inHg) 2,886 meters (~ 9,469 feet)
00:45:00Z 11.183N 81.800W 694.7 mb (~ 20.52 inHg) 3,041 meters (~ 9,977 feet)
Quoting 92. nrtiwlnvragn:

Bumpy ride for Recon

00:43:00Z 11.117N 81.900W 698.9 mb (~ 20.64 inHg) 2,990 meters (~ 9,810 feet)
00:43:30Z 11.117N 81.867W 696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg) 2,978 meters (~ 9,770 feet)
00:44:00Z 11.133N 81.850W 711.8 mb (~ 21.02 inHg) 2,800 meters (~ 9,186 feet)
00:44:30Z 11.167N 81.833W 703.6 mb (~ 20.78 inHg) 2,886 meters (~ 9,469 feet)
00:45:00Z 11.183N 81.800W 694.7 mb (~ 20.52 inHg) 3,041 meters (~ 9,977 feet)
Is Otto a cat 2 already? Im scared here in CRC
95. SLU
Quoting 94. hurricaneeye:

Is Otto a cat 2 already? Im scared here in CRC


Still a cat 1 but its strengthening fast of late.
Quoting 87. barbamz:

Short notice to the blog admins: When you try to access the blog from the main tropical site (as I usually do):
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
it still links to the previous blog, not the current one.


Thx. I thought it was just me.
Quoting 55. Envoirment:



The Euro is showing an area of low pressure hanging around there too. Doesn't look tropical, perhaps a subtropical storm? Should increase your rain chances a lot either way - hopefully it'll give you a lot of it. :)


Hopefully :)

Quoting 61. BaltimoreBrian:

Hey Nathan. You at home or in Millersville?


Grandparents place for Thanksgiving. 3 weeks of hardship left after break until semester is over.
Quoting 95. SLU:



Still a cat 1 but its strengthening fast of late.


Thanks
.
Recon dropsonde showing 93KT surface winds in Otto's North eyewall

Quoting 67. MahFL:

Is anyone having certification issues with https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov on Firefox ?


Yes, says it is not configured properly and is insecure....
Interesting sat pics and loops from Cane Otto.
It looks like every storm cluster / convection, North Of Otto has Venting type clouds that you would normally only see surrounding a centralized "storm", ready to possibly intensify. It will be interesting to watch if any remnants try and organize after Otto exits Left!
104. Ed22
Quoting 101. MrTornadochase:

Recon dropsonde showing 93KT winds in Otto's North eyewall

Wow Otto could be doing some RI tonight.
Relentless, constant moderate to heavy rain started here at noon today. 5.6" so far by 8:38pm EST, and currently falling at 0.38"per hour. (Palmira WU PWS station near Boquete, Panama.) We are at about 4,000' elevation on the Pacific side of the Continental Divide. Most precip that I've seen in one day in five years of living here.

I can only imagine what they are getting on the Caribbean side. No sign that it will let up anytime soon.

No issues likely here in the well-vegetated high-altitude rainforest, but Panama's Caribbean coastal plains and the mountains on that side will likely have problems. And even that will likely be nowhere near as serious as in Costa Rica and Nicaragua to the north.
106. Ed22
Quoting 101. MrTornadochase:

Recon dropsonde showing 93KT surface winds in Otto's North eyewall


weather enthusiasts what 93 knots surface winds represent in mph now.
107. Ed22
Quoting 78. nrtiwlnvragn:

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 0° (N) from the eye center.

981mb (Surface) 305° (from the NW) 93 knots (107 mph)
Wow Otto is category 2 then, this is RI going on.
Wow at Otto... Still has about a day or so before landfall, could make a run for major status.
Quoting 105. Xulonn:

Relentless, constant moderate to heavy rain started here at noon today. 5.6" so far by 8:38pm EST, and currently falling at 0.38"per hour. (Palmira WU PWS station near Boquete, Panama.) We are at about 4,000' elevation on the Pacific side of the Continental Divide. Most precip that I've seen in one day in five years of living here.

I can only imagine what they are getting on the Caribbean side. No sign that it will let up anytime soon.

No issues likely here in the well-vegetated high-altitude rainforest, but Panama's Caribbean coastal plains and the mountains on that side will likely have problems. And even that will likely be nowhere near as serious as in Costa Rica and Nicaragua to the north.


*Xulonn tries to escape hurricane season by ex-patting himself to Panama* Otto seen this one coming!
Quoting 42. Xyrus2000:



Trump's history in the public eye goes back decades.

Interesting comment/mindset that negates and rudely dismisses the reality of diversity within our populace. A comment that with broad paint-strokes dismisses the vast square footage of the very large United States of America. But sadly I do not hold out much hope either. Trump is no Constitutionalist that could reign in Government excess and allow for the needed funding of such important things that are needed and promised. Sadly it looks like it is very possible that our desire for all things regardless of cost will end up in government largess, collapsing in on itself and rendering all good intentions bankrupt and no longer viable or available.
Quoting 103. QueensWreath:
Interesting sat pics and loops from Cane Otto.
It looks like every storm cluster / convection, North Of Otto has Venting type clouds that you would normally only see surrounding a centralized "storm", ready to possibly intensify. It will be interesting to watch if any remnants try and organize after Otto exits Left!
The surface winds on the Nullschool (GFS) wind map up to five days out shows that, rather than reverting back to our typical trade wind pattern, another another broad circulation - a large low pressure area will develop in the SW Caribbean. This is expected to occur after Otto crosses over Nicaragua to the Pacific. This is the same type pre-Otto pattern that brought us a lot of rain before Otto developed. However, that predicted next low is not expected to develop. Even so, more rain would be bad after us in southern Central America the soaking from Otto.
Quoting 109. Astrometeor:


*Xulonn tries to escape hurricane season by ex-patting himself to Panama* Otto seen this one coming!


Too punny!!!
Otto may not be the last storm after all. How about a Subtropical Storm Paula in December? Models are hinting at that possibility in about 8-10 days in the central Atlantic...

Quoting 111. Xulonn:

The surface winds on the Nullschool (GFS) wind map up to five days out shows that, rather than reverting back to our typical trade wind pattern, another another broad circulation - a large low pressure area will develop in the SW Caribbean. This is expected to occur after Otto crosses over Nicaragua to the Pacific. This is the same type pre-Otto pattern that brought us a lot of rain before Otto developed. However, that predicted next low is not expected to develop. Even so, more rain would be bad after us in southern Central America the soaking from Otto.


Thanks for that synopsis Xulonn. Quite fascinating setup happening. Its what we weather people crave for and tear up with any unfortunate results. Watching to see how it all unfolds. On a side note: does anyone remember if it was a Lanina year when a Tropical system formed off the East Coast of S America?
Quoting 48. earthisanocean:



comment 42 is straight talk and nothing but facts, noone can objectively look at that and point out any falsehoods in what Xyrus said. hence the 18 likes. yes he does 'deserve a chance' to govern (something he has not done), but all signs point to a terrible 4 years, especially for the environment and thus the climate...andddd i just tied it back into weather/climate so it's not off topic :P


If I were making up crap about Trump then he'd have a case. But I'm not. Trump has claimed repeatedly that he thinks climate change is BS. Alt-right commentators, including Bannon who is now a senior adviser, tried to claim the NHC was politicizing Hurricane Matthew for democratic political gain. Trump et al. have also made no secret about environmental regulations and their thoughts on those. And of course, sprinkled in with the group are those who still think CFC ozone depletion was a hoax (it isn't), acid rain was overblown (it's not), the Earth is only 6,000 years old (ok buddy), and the Pyramids were grain silos (what?).

These aren't just random people spouting off garbage on blogs. These are people who will be making decisions and guiding policy on science, scientific organizations, education, etc. for the next four years. There's nothing political about taking what they've said and the policies they've proposed and drawing the rather obvious conclusions from them.
Quoting 104. Ed22:

Wow Otto could be doing some RI tonight.


It definitely appears hurricane season is not quite done yet.
Fortunately, Otto seems to be heading for a landfall in a sparsley populated area, bareing wobbles, of course.
Otto is really threading the needle between those mountains. Going to be interesting to see

Hello Folks!
I'm here in north pacific Costa Rica and would appreciate any recommendations for a predicted precip map (link) in relation to Otto...
Thanks in advance!
Quoting 117. Articuno:

Fortunately, Otto seems to be heading for a landfall in a sparsley populated area, bareing wobbles, of course.

Otto is a huge storm it will definately impact the whole of nicaragua parts of honduras and lots of costa rica
A population density map of Nicaragua

Quoting 118. isothunder67:

Otto is really threading the needle between those mountains. Going to be interesting to see




The most interesting part will be when/if it gets into lake nicaragua
Quoting 119. NewEnglandSurfer:

Hello Folks!
I'm here in north pacific Costa Rica and would appreciate any recommendations for a predicted precip map (link) in relation to Otto...
Thanks in advance!

Rain could be quite heavy in NW Costa Rica. A HWRF model depiction. If you're in a river valley or hills vulnerable to landslides I'd get out. Costa Rica is not an impoverished country but even so, a disaster zone in a 3rd world country is no place to be.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016

...OTTO GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 82.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

I have *never* seen an advisory not posted here at least a few minutes before its official issuing time before.



Rain could be quite heavy in NW Costa Rica. A HWRF model depiction. If you're in a river valley or hills vulnerable to landslides I'd get out. Costa Rica is not an impoverished country but even so, a disaster zone in a 3rd world country is no place to be.




Thanks for the concern.. but I'm at 9.8N 85.1W, not near the border.

In relation to the graphic: what are the values on right scale?
Re comment #109 I can see I've been a bad influence on Nathan :)
NewEnglandSurfer, those are mm of rainfall during the previous 3 hours. You did say you were on the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, so that's what I thought you meant.
Quoting 115. Xyrus2000:



If I were making up crap about Trump then he'd have a case. But I'm not. Trump has claimed repeatedly that he thinks climate change is BS. Alt-right commentators, including Bannon who is now a senior adviser, tried to claim the NHC was politicizing Hurricane Matthew for democratic political gain. Trump et al. have also made no secret about environmental regulations and their thoughts on those. And of course, sprinkled in with the group are those who still think CFC ozone depletion was a hoax (it isn't), acid rain was overblown (it's not), the Earth is only 6,000 years old (ok buddy), and the Pyramids were grain silos (what?).

These aren't just random people spouting off garbage on blogs. These are people who will be making decisions and guiding policy on science, scientific organizations, education, etc. for the next four years. There's nothing political about taking what they've said and the policies they've proposed and drawing the rather obvious conclusions from them.


Please just remember that to do all that you desire Government to do, Government needs to be fiscally sound. NO IFS ANDS OR BUTTS ABOUT THAT. How do we get there and what philosophy is best suited to get there. That is the question that is again put forth to the World. Good intentions pave the road to hell. If you gather all the money made by the wealthiest in the USA you could only get a half year of solvency. Then there is no money left for the following years and no future for wealthy commerce investment. You have just shut down the economy and any incentive to make more money for the Government to tax. Its called a balance. We in this society and around the World are out of that balance and very few are confronting it. Trump is not a Conservative. He looks to have the taxable income increase but has no desire to have the Government decrease. That is only half the solution to balance and to be able to continue all the obligations Government has promised but can only pay for with limited available taxable income and a disastrous money printing scheme. Neither Clinton or Trump could get us to that balance. But At least Trump is closer.
I wonder if Otto will be able to clear out an eye
Quoting 129. Icybubba:

I wonder if Otto will be able to clear out an eye

I think it wont
Back to Otto. He is very rapidly looking like he is phasing towards disaster outcome. God help those in his path. This is a fairly unusual event for this time of year and for this region. Any information about how they are preparing or information we can share so they can be prepared?
Quoting 89. Ed22:

Intensification taking place now, probability topping out at 85 or 90 mph.
Thank the lord this storm does not have another 2 days left over water. With every passing hour this storm looks better and better
Quoting 53. BaltimoreBrian:




billions of dollars for a hunk of junk lol
This area is generally referred to as the North Pacific Coast (although I agree that is not exactly accurate). AKA - The Nicoya Peninsula...

There has been a state of emergency declared by the President for the eastern province of Limon, with mandatory evacuations and widespread flooding already happening.

On the tip of the Nicoya it has been sunny and calm. Tropical paradise.

I've seen the storm referred to on the blog as "huge" , and although I guess that could be said in regards to circulation, but contrarily, Levi's site is showing a 20nm TS wind field (from NHC)....

Most folks in this specific part of CR are not too worried about the wind, but flooding is certainly on everyone's mind.

have they fire the million dollar test shell yet
I don't think it's funny.
NewEnglandSurfer, you'll probably be ok--although if Otto jogs south the rains could be heavier. I've surfed in a lot of places but not been to the Nicoya peninsula.
Quoting 136. BaltimoreBrian:

I don't think it's funny.
not funny but it is a big waste of money
and too think 2 more are yet too come for a total of 3
50 billion dollars later
not bad really its like every man women and child of the united states just donated 156.80 for something that don't work at the moment

Happy Thanksgiving!
142. elioe
Quoting 125. NewEnglandSurfer:

Thanks for the concern.. but I'm at 9.8N 85.1W, not near the border.

In relation to the graphic: what are the values on right scale?


GFS says this:



So, by the time Otto reaches Pacific coast, locally rainfall could be 20 mm/hr, even without orographic influence. GFS shows the big rains staying to the north of the peninsula in NW Costa Rica. However, GFS also puts the track to the north of NHC forecast track. In the case, that Otto follows the southern edge of forecast cone, the center could go over the peninsula, and so would the rains.
have not really been following the whole process of those ships I know 1 of 3 on the way to its operating port salt water in proplusion gear assembly is bad could need a major overhaul that thing maybe a bad o ring seal you would thik something in the billions of dollars would not have such a thing happen who build it ikea
sorry bb I just woke up from a 3 hr nap little frisky
should I read back
146. elioe
HWRF is crazy.
Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should I read back


naaaah...just a little same-old same-old.... I gues it IS kinda getting old, like kicking a dead horse.
16L/H/O/C1


Otto system appears on track heading towards lower lake of Nicaragua along north border regions of Costa Rica winds should increase after dawn and a strong tropical storm minimum hurricane will be in the forecast for the day expect tropical torrential flooding rains strong to storm force at times winds for a minimum of 12 hrs no more then winds shall subside
149. vis0

Quoting 103. QueensWreath:

Interesting sat pics and loops from Cane Otto.
It looks like every storm cluster / convection, North Of Otto has Venting type clouds that you would normally only see surrounding a centralized "storm", ready to possibly intensify. It will be interesting to watch if any remnants try and organize after Otto exits Left!

More for the NEastward clouds in which its venting is causing the venting north of Otto...
"skilurking"...
Though Otto is of utmost concentration, then traveling weather for USofA (and abroad) holidays follows right behind i wonder if some have noticed Otto's satellite "backpack".  As in another swirl going against the known grain and trying to build up too close to Otto's outflow and doing a "good job" of "trying"...not good for drenched areas.  Yet what physics taketh away physics giveth away, as to moving onto land so less strength for Otto but if the land is mountainous or Otto stalls more rain falls specially as to moisture rich(er) atmosphere

...too much venting
...out   of    breath
must    have       been    all       that        running        to        "catch"     a          ...tofurkey?
Reporting from San José, Costa Rica. Today has been eerily calmed, and just started raining a bit. We'll probably be in for a long and rainy 48 hours.
Quoting 147. aquak9:



naaaah...just a little same-old same-old.... I gues it IS kinda getting old, like kicking a dead horse.


it is getting old now its time watch wait see

Quoting 150. arcoscr:

Reporting from San José, Costa Rica. Today has been eerily calmed, and just started raining a bit. We'll probably be in for a long and rainy 48 hours.
you are far displaced se of storm you will likely see squally breezy winds at times some of the squalls will be topically heavy rains at times the brunt of the weather will track along border regions extreme south Nicaragua runoff from system will be an issue as well


nothing to bad for holidays kinda quiet except for ne with a little disturbance moving by we got snow here right now in eastern scarbreria maybe 2 cm changing to freezing rain in a bit then to rain before dawn nothing serious be all gone by noon and milder temps near 50 for highs for next five days
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCE
11:00 AM PhST November 24 2016
==============================
"MARCE" has moved west northwestward towards Surigao provinces

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Marce (1004 hPa) located at 8.8N 127.8E or 160 km east northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gustiness up to 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
-----------------------------
Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
Light damage to medium to low risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

Visayas region
-------------------
Leyte
Southern Leyte
Bohol
Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands
Siquijor
Negros Oriental
Negros Occidental
Iloilo
Capiz
Aklan
Antique
Guimaras

Mindanao region
-------------------
Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island
Surigao del Sur
Dinagat Islands
Agusan del Norte
Agusan del Sur
Misamis Oriental
Camiguin

Additional Information
----------------------------------------
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Residents of areas under TCWS #1 and the rest of eastern Visayas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the northern seaboard of northern Luzon.

Expected to make landfall over Surigao del Norte this afternoon or early evening.

Expected to exit the PAR by Monday morning (November 28).
Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
Intermittent light freezing rain is possible tonight.

Snow or a rain snow mix has moved into the area. There is also a risk of freezing rain this evening and overnight.

It is possible that some locales could experience several hours of freezing rain. However, temperatures are forecast to be just below the freezing mark, so treated surfaces should remain ice free.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Untreated surfaces such as roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery.

The snowfall accumulations by Thursday morning from this event are expected to be in the 2 to 4 cm range with local amounts near 5 cm over the Dundalk highlands.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you are far displaced se of storm you will likely see squally breezy winds at times some of the squalls will be topically heavy rains at times the brunt of the weather will track along border regions extreme south Nicaragua runoff from system will be an issue as well


Yup, not worried about the wind, but the rain could be tough. Luckily I don't live in a flood prone zone, but lots of urban areas are near small rivers that could very well overflow (they already do occasionally during the rainy season).
Quoting 156. arcoscr:



Yup, not worried about the wind, but the rain could be tough. Luckily I don't live in a flood prone zone, but lots of urban areas are near small rivers that could very well overflow (they already do occasionally during the rainy season).
well this is gonna kinda be like getting the rainy season in a day or so
16L/O/H/C1


our whatever to be winter pattern is taking shape another month and it will be Christmas
T-6 DAYS remain of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Quoting 128. QueensWreath:



Please just remember that to do all that you desire Government to do, Government needs to be fiscally sound...


And here you deflect and turn the argument political by dragging in government finance and twisting it into a good reason for defunding critical services and research, which is pure nonsense. We need weather and climate research in order to develop sane and sustainable plans for both near and distant futures. Sacrificing those on some idiot's ideology altar under the guise of "fiscal responsibility" while ignoring the real culprits of fiscal irresponsibility is both self defeating and disastrous.

And none of this refutes the fact that there is a bunch of science illiterate/anti-science/anti-education ignoramuses making critical decisions about our weather, climate, environment, and education.

So as I originally said, I hope the impact of the next 4 years is minimal. I hope the funding for NOAA/NWS/NASA remain at least at the current levels to maintain operations. I hope our current crop of weather satellites remain operational (as I doubt these clowns would authorize a budget increase to replace them). I hope the hurricane hunter program remains funded so we get critical in-situ measurements and observations to better predict storms.

Unfortunately, all we have now is hope because there's no telling what he'll do and how he will do it. As John Oliver so eloquently put it, it's like being on a 747 and finding out your pilot is a wombat.
Quoting 159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



our whatever to be winter pattern is taking shape another month and it will be Christmas


You know, I can remember a time when maps like that didn't look like a wobbling bowl of jello. :P
Otto looking really impressive right now; might make a run for Category 2 at this rate. Come on recon!
Quoting 162. Xyrus2000:



And here you deflect and turn the argument political by dragging in government finance and twisting it into a good reason for defunding critical services and research, which is pure nonsense. We need weather and climate research in order to develop sane and sustainable plans for both near and distant futures. Sacrificing those on some idiot's ideology altar under the guise of "fiscal responsibility" while ignoring the real culprits of fiscal irresponsibility is both self defeating and disastrous.

And none of this refutes the fact that there is a bunch of science illiterate/anti-science/anti-education ignoramuses making critical decisions about our weather, climate, environment, and education.

So as I originally said, I hope the impact of the next 4 years is minimal. I hope the funding for NOAA/NWS/NASA remain at least at the current levels to maintain operations. I hope our current crop of weather satellites remain operational (as I doubt these clowns would authorize a budget increase to replace them). I hope the hurricane hunter program remains funded so we get critical in-situ measurements and observations to better predict storms.

Unfortunately, all we have now is hope because there's no telling what he'll do and how he will do it. As John Oliver so eloquently put it, it's like being on a 747 and finding out your pilot is a wombat.

How about we give him a chance? He may just turn those 4 years into 8.
Quoting 165. Kenfa03:

How about we give him a chance? He may just turn those 4 years into 8.


There's no reason to give "a chance" to someone who has made their intentions clear.
I read an article that suggested that Trump might not do everything he says he will. He's a businessman, so he's good at persuasion. If he tells the Republicans what they want to hear at first, then any potential alteration of his original ideas will be made easier later. That was the paradigm of the article, at least. I hope it's right.
Why would we talk about politics when a fascinating recon flight like this is ongoing?





Maybe the eye is starting to clear out?

Quoting 168. Carnivorous:

Why would we talk about politics when a fascinating recon flight like this is ongoing?





Maybe the eye is starting to clear out?




It is. Might be a Category 2 before landfall.
"Thankfully Otto was weakened to a tropical storm"-


C3 suddenly!
Quoting 164. KoritheMan:

Otto looking really impressive right now; might make a run for Category 2 at this rate. Come on recon!

It's already a C3, atleast a C2
Quoting 160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T-6 DAYS remain of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

but there's a C3
HURRICANE OTTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
600 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS OTTO STRONGER...

Data just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Otto now has maximum sustained winds of 100
mph (155 km/h), with higher gusts.

The aircraft will continue to investigate Otto this morning, and an
intermediate advisory will be issued at 700 AM EST (1200 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- --
LOCATION...11.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Yep. Category 2.
The eyewall is almost closed...

Quoting 81. NutZilla:


Obama ended NASA's focus on manned spaceflight and gave it a new mission...as a Muslim outreach.

I'm just wondering. Is this the kind of damage to science you're talking about, because if so...I cannot imagine how Trump can top this whopper of a set back!

Barack Obama: Nasa must try to make Muslims 'feel good' - July 2010

The head of the Nasa has said Barack Obama told him to make "reaching out to the Muslim world" one of the space agency's top priorities.

Obama DID NOT "Charge" Bolden To Do Muslim Country Outreach

Still a good bit offshore. Category 3 before landfall?
178. Ed22
Quoting 177. KoritheMan:

Still a good bit offshore. Category 3 before landfall?
Right thats possibility too, maybe around 115 or 120 mph.
Barack Obama's Thanksgiving message to the Nation

Obama calls for compassion in dealing with the global migrant crisis. In his Thanksgiving message on Thursday, the US president reminds Americans them that the Pilgrims who came to America in 1620 were themselves fleeing persecution.

180. Ed22
Quoting 168. Carnivorous:

Why would we talk about politics when a fascinating recon flight like this is ongoing?





Maybe the eye is starting to clear out?


pressure still falling, now at 977 millibars.
Look at Otto's giant arms, from Californias to West Africa.

when i visited san rafiel del sur about ten yrs ago there were still bomb holes in the walls of the buildings. all that is long gone as nica really has made progress of recent. unlike their neighbors to the north el salvador law rules the land and its relatively safe. good luck to them.
Quoting 167. KoritheMan:

I read an article that suggested that Trump might not do everything he says he will. He's a businessman, so he's good at persuasion. If he tells the Republicans what they want to hear at first, then any potential alteration of his original ideas will be made easier later. That was the paradigm of the article, at least. I hope it's right.
Based on his cabinet selections, I'm not so hopeful.
Meanwhile a wet visit in the Philippines:

Tropical Depression Marce heading for Surigao del Norte





Hurricane Otto: Costa Rica declares national emergency as storm heads for coast
Thousands ordered to evacuate in Nicaragua and Costa Rica after storm strengthens over the Caribbean
The Guardian, Staff and agencies, Thursday 24 November 2016 05.24 GMT
nicas are told lies by their candidate but at least he gives away chickens and goats .
This will be a major soon. Unfortunately, recon is leaving so we will never know Otto's true intensity...





Another terrifying RI.
Otto is now a thoroughly political object and a direct result of climate revisionism.
Quoting 187. Carnivorous:

This will be a major soon. Unfortunately, recon is leaving so we will never know Otto's true intensity...






I'm estimating it to be 115 mph. It's a C3 at 10N... amazing.
Otto is certainly undergoing some level of Rapid intensification...it looks almost certain that a clear and distinct eye may become visible on satellite imagery...The official intensity prior to landfall will have to be judged on satellite presentation and structure. The possibility of a actual major hurricane system upon impact to Central America cannot be ruled out...
Indeed, it Only takes One...My Heartfelt Thoughts & Prayers to those in its path and under the wider influence of its effects.

Blessings to everyone!
191. Ed22
Quoting 118. isothunder67:

Otto is really threading the needle between those mountains. Going to be interesting to see


Possibility of Category 3 Otto making landfall is possible.
Quoting 191. Ed22:

Possibility of Category 3 Otto making landfall is possible.


Or a Category 4, since Otto is going crazy and 850mb is at around 130 mph already.

I think Otto is a C3.
194. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h1 hour ago Hobart, Tasmania
Seasonal Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy in 2016 has now reached 133 - the highest Atlantic seasonal ACE value since 2010. #Otto
195. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Hobart, Tasmania
#Otto has intensified to 100 mph, the strongest Atlantic hurricane this late in the season since 1934.
196. Ed22
Quoting 118. isothunder67:

Otto is really threading the needle between those mountains. Going to be interesting to see


RI is going on right now with Hurricane Otto.
Quoting 188. cRRKampen:

Another terrifying RI.
Otto is now a thoroughly political object and a direct result of climate revisionism.
Swing and a miss! Thanx for playing!
Quoting 197. PensacolaDoug:

Swing and a miss! Thanx for playing!

Also I hold climate revisionists, every one of them, responsible for every fatality of this system. Or of Matthew's. Haiyan's. The Hyperdrought of the Levant. Repent.
200. SLU
If Otto becomes a major hurricane, it could make 2016 the first season on record to end with 3 major hurricanes in a row.

Otto is impressive this morning. I hope those people are prepared.
Getting close

Is there something wrong with the blog? It seems dreadfully slow with an almost major hurricane looming of someone's coast. I know it doesn't have any US impact but still...
Quoting 182. islander101010:

when i visited san rafiel del sur about ten yrs ago there were still bomb holes in the walls of the buildings. all that is long gone as nica really has made progress of recent. unlike their neighbors to the north el salvador law rules the land and its relatively safe. good luck to them.
I've spent many months in Nicaragua and was just there in May. I've met Some of the nicest, most peaceful people on the planet there. Otto looks like he means business now! God bless them all.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! We are fortunate beyond comprehension here in the USA so please don't take it for granted.
If Otto was sitting off FL, TX or LA this blog would be doing numbers right now.
208. Ed22
Quoting 202. JrWeathermanFL:

Getting close


Nearing Landfall now, Category 3 at that time.
Otto...click pick for loop.
Quoting 195. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach %u200F@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Hobart, Tasmania
#Otto has intensified to 100 mph, the strongest Atlantic hurricane this late in the season since 1934.

Wow he's really RI now Thank God he doesn't have an extra 12-24 hours over water or he could've been a Cat5 landfall.
OTTO is getting powerful !!! Amazing hurricane for so late in the year, and about to make landfall, on Thanksgiving Day. Hope the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica are prepared!
Quoting 207. LemieT:

If Otto was sitting off FL, TX or LA this blog would be doing numbers right now.


Perhaps the lack of posters is due to the Thanks giving holiday. Many are probably busy with family and making preparations for the meal.

My thoughts and prayers are with the people being affected by Otto.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. I personally have so much to be thankful for - one of them being all the wonderful people on this blog. I hope everyone, even those not celebrating today, takes a few moments and reflects on how much they have to be thankful for.

The weather is very interesting today - NOV 24, 2016 - Thanksgiving Day! We have powerful late-season Hurricane Otto about to make landfall in Central America. Also, it snowed in Tokyo, Japan - 1st time in over 50yrs.
Quoting 205. LemieT:

Is there something wrong with the blog? It seems dreadfully slow with an almost major hurricane looming of someone's coast. I know it doesn't have any US impact but still...
That's why. This blog goes it's most crazy when there is an obvious threat to the US with an uncertain track. Once the track becomes well telegraphed, the blog slows down until the next threat develops.
Quoting 214. Stormwatch247:

The weather is very interesting today - NOV 24, 2016 - Thanksgiving Day! We have powerful late-season Hurricane Otto about to make landfall in Central America. Also, it snowed in Tokyo, Japan - 1st time in over 50yrs.


In November. Quite amazing!

Also wow at Otto... Shame we don't have a plane in the system as it starts making landfall. Could very well be a major hurricane once it does make landfall at this rate.
even ir pinhole eye
I know Otto is currently the biggest concern, weatherwise. So best wishes to Nicaragua and neighbours!

Nevertheless there is also some massive flooding going on in southeastern France, especially the island of Corsica; as well in northwestern Italy (Piedmont, Liguria). Several pics and videos at Severe Weather Europe.


Source.

Storm batters SE France
The Local (France), November 24, 2016
STORMS are continue to batter southeast France, with Meteo-France placing the northern half of Corsica on red alert for heavy rain and flooding.
In its 11.30am bulletin on Thursday, November 24, the national forecaster issued its highest weather warning for the Haute-Corse and warned residents that exceptional rainfall could lead to localised flooding after 168mm of rain fell in six hours near Cambia, and 106mm in three hours in Rusio.
It said the storms will continue until at least midnight, and warned that up to 350mm of rain could fall in some places. ...


Youtube video from Garessio, northwestern Italy: Alluvione a Garessio 24/11/2016 - Esondazione fiume Tanaro - Alessandria

Culprit is low Queenie: IR Loop.
Eye getting clearer every frame...



Really bad situation unfolding with Otto.
Quoting 217. islander101010:

even ir pinhole eye
221. SLU

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE OTTO APPROACHING NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... ...ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED...
If the eye hits Nicaragua (as it looks like it will) and just misses Costa Rica, would that still allow it to be said that "a hurricane has never hit Costa Rica" even though CR will still experience much of it? Is it the eye only that counts as a hit?
Lovely country, wonderful people, feeling bad for them either way!
223. SLU

10:00 AM EST Thu Nov 24
Location: 11.0°N 83.4°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

000
WTNT41 KNHC 241434
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of
Otto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the
hurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped
to 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while
the SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery
showed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized
with a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and
the Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,
the initial intensity has been set at 95 kt.

There is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before
Otto makes landfall during the next several hours.
However,
weakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland
across Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the
eastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should
continue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that
strong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone
should become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is
trapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high
pressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist,
the hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest
track for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto
should turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of
the high. The track guidance is very consistent with this
scenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC
forecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the
multi-model consensus.

NHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for
flying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 11.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1200Z 10.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 26/0000Z 9.8N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 9.5N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 9.0N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
if Otto had another 12 hours this thing would be strong a major, possibly a 5, crazy what went on last 12-18 hours. Woke up just now and amazed to see an eye clearing out. Thank the lord there was dry air injected in this storm this time yesterday or we would be looking at an even more catastrophic event unfolding.
16L/H/O/C2


almost c3 but does it have enough time over water to do it maybe maybe not
Quoting 219. Envoirment:

Eye getting clearer every frame...



Really bad situation unfolding with Otto.

Otto appears to be taking a jog to the south. We could see the first major make landfall in CostaRica since hurricane records began.
Hurricane Otto now has 110MPH sustained winds. NHC 10AM EST
Here is LecheriaSantos's Wundercam it is located a little south of Lake Nicaragua in Sabalito de Tilaran, Costa Rica.
Very scary situation...

231. Ed22
Quoting 219. Envoirment:

Eye getting clearer every frame...



Really bad situation unfolding with Otto.
Hurricane Otto just 5mph from Category three status.
Quoting 230. GeoffreyWPB:

Very scary situation...



Fortunately sparsely populated area. Northern eye wall will actually blast a nature reserve.

Click to enlarge. Source Twitter.
Eye has really cleared out in the last 45minutes..
Quoting 231. Ed22:

Hurricane Otto just 5mph from Category three status.
That looks really bad...Hope those folks were prepared.
T6.0 would be Cat 4.

2016NOV24 134500 5.3 965.3 97.2 5.3 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -14.56 -67.13 EYE 11 IR 64.7 11.12 83.28 SPRL GOES13 16.2

(Click to enlarge). Current shelters in Costa Rica. Source Twitter.
Quoting 234. Skyepony:

Eye has really cleared out in the last 45minutes..

it may be a unrecorded major hurricane now but not long land fall is eminent and weakening there after should begin
I am tagging it c3 next sat update in a few minutes
I think we're going to see a special announcement from the NHC about Otto becoming a major hurricane. Its satellite appearance keeps improving... One of the worst things is a strengthening major hurricane at landfall.
As you folks care too much about Otto, you may not realized that there are a significant Tropical Depression in Philippines, and it may strengthen to a Tropical Storm in no time flat.
242. SLU
Quoting 222. ToesInTheWater:

If the eye hits Nicaragua (as it looks like it will) and just misses Costa Rica, would that still allow it to be said that "a hurricane has never hit Costa Rica" even though CR will still experience much of it? Is it the eye only that counts as a hit?
Lovely country, wonderful people, feeling bad for them either way!


Yeah landfall is defined as when the center of the eye crosses over land. So if it misses Costa Rica even by 1/2 a mile, the record still stands.

Similarly as destructive as Matthew was, it only counts as a category 1 US hurricane landfall. Therefore the record-breaking US major hurricane drought lives on.

Quoting 241. VietnamTyphoon:

A s folks care too much about Otto, you may not realized that there are a significant Tropical Depression in Philippines.

Look at post #184, please.
Quoting 230. GeoffreyWPB:

Very scary situation...




Very impressive.

Quoting 243. barbamz:


Look at post #184, please.
Yes, sorry for my unawareness of older post. I'm inexperience in this stuff and I'm a new member so pls help




248. elioe
At this rate, landfall at about 17:40 UTC. Perhaps still there is a slight chance to make a jog towards south, to make landfall in Costa Rica, and break more records?

Quoting 245. Grothar:


its a pinhole eye

OTTO OBVIOUSLY Takes PRECEDENCE NOW...
Quoting 241. VietnamTyphoon:


As you folks care too much about Otto, you may not realized that there are a significant Tropical Depression in Philippines, and it may strengthen to a Tropical Storm in no time flat.



HURRICANE OTTO IS UNEQUIVOCALLY THE CENTER OF FOCUS AND ATTENTION...
Indeed, AT THIS POINT GIVEN ITS APPEARANCE AND STRUCTURE IN LIGHT OF RI- THIS IS CLEARLY A SYSTEM AT OR VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...
I HOPE AND PRAY THAT THOSE IN ITS TRACK AND ALONG ITS PATH WERE WELL PREPARED.

LET'S PRAY THAT ITS IMPACT WILL NOT BE SEVERE NOR DEADLY!
MAY GOD RICHLY BLESS US ESPECIALLY THROUGH ALL OF LIFE'S SEVERAL STORMS!
Quoting 246. VietnamTyphoon:
I'm a new member

So welcome! I hope TD 98 won't severely hit Vietnam. They've already got their share of typhoons this year.
Quoting 248. elioe:

At this rate, landfall at about 17:40 UTC. Perhaps still there is a slight chance to make a jog towards south, to make landfall in Costa Rica, and break more records?


it will landfall ne CR then wobble in on Nicaragua towards their southern grt lake
Quoting 205. LemieT:

Is there something wrong with the blog? It seems dreadfully slow with an almost major hurricane looming of someone's coast. I know it doesn't have any US impact but still...


In fact, the storm isn't in the NW Caribbean and forecast to move NW near Grand Cayman then over the Yucatan Channel and into the GOMEX.. LOL This is why the blog is slow. Ah wishcasters like myself ......
16L/MH/O/C3
Quoting 245. Grothar:




Quite a Stunning image...Pretty Historic too given the Climatology etc. Again such a pic sums it up entirely that this Hurricane was sadly going into explosive Intensification mode while approaching Landfall.
Many Prayers going out to those in its Direct Path!

God Bless!
Quoting 252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will landfall ne CR then wobble in on Nicaragua towards their southern lake


It will also travel through northern Costa Rica as a tropical storm. However, that won't count as a landfall I guess ;)
Quoting 230. GeoffreyWPB:

Very scary situation...



Could be a cat 3 right now
may even be a twin landfall both coasts at the same time Costa Rica Nicaragua Major Hurricane Otto
Quoting 258. Carnivorous:



It will also travel through northern Costa Rica as a tropical storm. However, that won't count as a landfall I guess ;)
no its an overland cyclone then no ADT


Mmm blob South of PR. Hopefully RI lol.
Quoting 232. cRRKampen:


Fortunately sparsely populated area. Northern eye wall will actually blast a nature reserve.

Still gonna have strong impacts whether its far away, from flooding and winds etc due to its size
Quoting 245. Grothar:



Looks like Otto is headed toward the route for the proposedChinese Nicaragua Canal project

Might make it a bit cheaper for the Chinese, after all that vegetation is cleared and the people are forced to move...
Fire ball Monday night over SW fl.

Link
Quoting 262. CaribBoy:



Mmm blob South of PR. Hopefully RI lol.
next system 6 days remain
San Juan del Norte (Greytown) could be the location of Otto's landfall.


Current radar.
Quoting 265. EricGreen:


Looks like Otto is headed toward the route for the proposedChinese Nicaragua Canal project

Might make it a bit cheaper for the Chinese, after all that vegetation is cleared and the people are forced to move...

nature will show them
270. SLU
Quoting 262. CaribBoy:



Mmm blob South of PR. Hopefully RI lol.


Something interesting could happen near the islands next week.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 48m
Historic event in progress in Nicaragua/Costa Rica as #Otto is the easily the strongest #hurricane so far SW- nothing like this on record.
Quoting 271. 999Ai2016:


micro storm



Looks like Otto will miss the lake.
16L/MH/O/C3


brief C3 eye appearance followed by deformation of eye with land interaction this system up for review
Meanwhile:
Why does nhc show a rapid weakining? It is entirely possible for Otto to go through the lower elevations and lake Nicaragua and survive stronger! And Otto looks at least cat 3. Looks like Sandra from last year.
Quoting 276. Uragani:

Meanwhile:

sprawling system new season storms
No lack of threats right now:

Russia, Turkey and Cyprus send firefighting planes to Israel
Hundreds of homes damaged and 50,000 people evacuated from Haifa in worst wildfires since 2010
Guardian, Thursday 24 November 2016 15.41 GMT
Strengthening east winds on top of warm, dry weather have helped spread the blazes in several areas of the country for a third day ...


Quoting 277. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Why does nhc show a rapid weakining? It is entirely possible for Otto to go through the lower elevations and lake Nicaragua and survive stronger! And Otto looks at least cat 3. Looks like Sandra from last year.
that's what tropical cyclones do once over land and loses its access to open waters
Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's what tropical cyclones do once over land and loses its access to open waters

but doesn't it seem a little too drastic of a weakening? Matthew did not weaken much after cuba and haiti, so why this storm?
This hurricane season makes up for the lackluster season that occurred in 2013-2015. Sadly there were landfalling hurricanes this year but beautiful storms. A very rare January Hurricane, an annular hurricane in Gaston and possibly Nicole and two pinhole eyes in Matt and Otto, eventful year from start to end. Hopefully Otto doesn't end up being to destructive to Costa Rica and Nicaragua but a beautiful storm none the less.
Quoting 281. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


but doesn't it seem a little too drastic of a weakening? Matthew did not weaken much after cuba and haiti, so why this storm?


It might not weaken as much as predicted, but it probably will weaken more than Matthew did over Haiti. Matthew made landfall over a tiny tip of Haiti, and a small part of Cuba. Otto will be crossing over an entire country.
Has Otto made landfall yeat?
The GFS model etc. were right on with the Intensity forecasts...thank God this system did not have more time to intensify over open waters ahead of landfall.
Hopefully, only sparsely populated areas should get the brunt of this powerful Hurricane...

God Bless!
286. elioe
Quoting 284. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Has Otto made landfall yeat?


No... seems that it has veered to the north from forecast track... unless it jogs back to south, landfall may not occur until after intermediate advisory at 18 UTC.


Otto's landfall now imminent, a tad north of the border with Costa Rica.




Click to enlarge. (Grey line is the border on land and in the sea, I think).
Hurricane Otto - A dangerous and rare late-season hurricane - with rapid intensification just prior to landfall. Wondering if it made it to CAT3? It's a close call.

Small hurricane, but powerful!

its true that an intensify system causes more havoc than a decaying one. good luck to the nicas and ticos
16L/MH/O/C3
HURRICANE OTTO LANFALL WITHIN NEXT 30 MINUTES
Any chance this could hit Florida?

Quoting 292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





wow its SOOOO close to the border with costa rica. and there are literally a handful of people living there, but a lot of animals!
i been following Otto on here and i have too say i did not think it would get too cat 2 good thing this did not have other 2 days over water other wise we could have seen a major strong cat 4 or 5 storm out of this i all so see that Otto is in a vary odd spot not many storms do we see down there in that spot


all so happy Thanksgiving every one
If they're taping the next Survivor in southern Nicaragua...I hope someone on the camera crew is out there taping this little buzz-saw.

Otherwise...this storm is hitting a cayman-infested jungle populated with a few, very poor people.
Quoting 293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

HURRICANE OTTO LANFALL WITHIN NEXT 30 MINUTES


Please update with exact coordinates, please. I'm keeping a record of landfall locations. Thanks!
Has there been a storm that crossed over lake managua? Cesar and joan have passed pretty close though
11.3 /83.8 very near oz
Quoting 292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Otto may actually landfall Costa Rica while over land.
Quoting 296. thetwilightzone:

i been following Otto on here and i have too say i did not think it would get too cat 2 good thing this did not have other 2 days over water other wise we could have seen a major strong cat 4 or 5 storm out of this i all so see that Otto is in a vary odd spot not many storms do we see down there in that spot


all so happy Thanksgiving every one
not official but I believe it was a major hurricane as per sat presentation it has deform some so it likely is border line or just under a c3 storm again
anyone?
Quoting 294. Grothar:

Any chance this could hit Florida?


latest still image on the beach now

16L/MH/O/C3
MARK
11.2N/83.8W
This is interesting... I posted to the old blog because it came up first! Navigation problem.
It's about 5° C. just like Tampere Finland, here in Chicagoland. We had 1/2" or 12mm rain and everything's muddy.
The turkey is in the oven... Happy Thanksgiving!
Now it's time for me to stack-up some logs for the fireplace.

DOUBLE POST

According to radar (which is very diffcult to access, if at all) Otto should have made landfall by now at San Juan del Norte (Greytown), just north of the border to Costa Rica (red arrow).

I have to go now. - Best wishes to the folks down there!
Quoting 303. 19N81W:

anyone?




that will be a 100% no on that
Happy Thanksgiving everyone
how about the area of low pressure drifting back into the western carib?
please!:)
Quoting 310. thetwilightzone:




that will be a 100% no on that
Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's what tropical cyclones do once over land and loses its access to open waters

Frictional forces, even over relatively flat land plus the loss of a warm water surface (fuel) cause weakening, regardless.
Quoting 301. isothunder67:



Otto may actually landfall Costa Rica while over land.

Then it's not a landfall.

How close is this?!?!?

EDIT: Glad recon is coming over.
Quoting 241. VietnamTyphoon:


Welcome to the blog. We love hearing about weather from around the world.
HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
100 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE OTTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
NICARAGUAN COAST NEAR THE TOWN OF SAN JUAN DE NICARAGUA...

Link
000
WTNT31 KNHC 241753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
100 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE OTTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
NICARAGUAN COAST NEAR THE TOWN OF SAN JUAN DE NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 83.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NW OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), Hurricane Otto made landfall on the coast
of southern Nicaragua near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.9 West,
just to the north of the town of San Juan de Nicaragua. Otto is the
southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America on record.
The hurricane is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a
faster motion toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin
tonight and continue through early Saturday. On this track, the
center of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica through this evening, and then is expected to
reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica
tonight or early Friday.

Otto made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening should begin soon while the
hurricane moves farther inland, and Otto is forecast to become a
tropical storm by tonight. Additional weakening is anticipated
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

Interesting from the NHC advisory.
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), Hurricane Otto made landfall on the coast
of southern Nicaragua near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.9 West,
just to the north of the town of San Juan de Nicaragua. Otto is the
southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America on record.
The hurricane is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a
faster motion toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin
tonight and continue through early Saturday. On this track, the
center of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica through this evening, and then is expected to
reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica
tonight or early Friday.
Quoting 305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

16L/MH/O/C3
MARK
11.2N/83.8W



Are these my landfall coordinates?
so is this the last landfalling storm of the season 6 days remain
its been a good tracking season everyone and 6 days from now anything that forms will be a out of season storm

a high impact overland cyclone is now occurring southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica
Quoting 321. NutZilla:



Are these my landfall coordinates?
as per NHC 11.0n/83.9w
Otto RI'd just off shore...just like other famous RI landfallers...such as Hurricane Dolly in 2008.
Quoting 321. NutZilla:



Are these my landfall coordinates?


no these are : Hurricane Otto made landfall on the coast
of southern Nicaragua near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.9 West
Quoting 324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as per NHC 11.0n/83.9w


MARK!
Quoting 323. NutZilla:

Social Observation:

that has nothing to do with the blog
Quoting 330. hydrus:


now you gonna start scaring with with snow storms huh
Quoting 329. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that has nothing to do with the blog


Happy Thanksgiving!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
with the end of cane season snow storm season follows
Quoting 262. CaribBoy:



Mmm blob South of PR. Hopefully RI lol.
How is the shear down there? Maybe that is the one some models are showing next week for the northeastern Caribbean...
Quoting 219. Envoirment:

Eye getting clearer every frame...



Really bad situation unfolding with Otto.

Going to be a significant storm for lake managua
Quoting 336. Weatherfan1013:


Going to be a significant storm for lake managua

Lake Cocibolca o Nicaragua
Magnitude 7.0 Offshore Quake Rattles El Salvador