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Slow-Strengthening Tropical Depression Forms in Southwest Caribbean

By: Bob Henson 5:07 PM GMT on November 21, 2016

A gradually organizing disturbance about 300 miles east of Nicaragua was designated Tropical Depression 16 early Monday morning. Little change in TD 16 was noted in the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 10 AM EST Monday, with the depression nearly stationary and top sustained winds remaining at 35 mph. TD 16 is located in a “col” area between weather features, resulting in upper-level winds so weak that there is no definitive steering influence. As it sits and spins over very warm water (sea surface temperatures of 29°C, or 84°F, are about 1°C above average), TD 16 is very gradually becoming better organized. Showers and thunderstorms are consolidating around TD 16’s center, with upper-level outflow becoming more evident toward the west and north. Heavy rains on the periphery of TD 16 continue to affect parts of Costa Rica and Panama, as the depression pulls in moisture from the tropical Pacific.



Figure 1. Latest visible satellite image of TD 16.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of TD 16 at 1615Z (11:15 AM EST) Monday, November 21, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The outlook for TD 16
TD 16 is expected to become Tropical Storm Otto within the next day or so. Vertical wind shear will be in the light to moderate range (15 - 20 knots), and minor drying of the atmosphere will bring mid-level relative humidities down to about 60%, but neither factor should impede TD 16’s development. An upper-level high is projected to strengthen over the western Caribbean by midweek, which should hasten TD 16’s growth. Steering around the high will gradually impart a westward motion to the cyclone. NHC brings TD 16 to hurricane strength by Thursday as it approaches the Caribbean coast near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where landfall is currently expected on Thursday afternoon or evening. While all of our most reliable track models bring TD 16 toward Nicaragua, the 00Z Monday European run and its ensemble members are the further south (near or just south of the Costa Rica border), while the UKMET and GFS runs project a landfall closer to central Nicaragua. The ECMWF is also considerably weaker, with none of its ensemble members bringing TD 16 to hurricane strength; most of the GFS ensemble members call for a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane before landfall. As TD 16 develops, we’ll want to start keeping a closer eye on the HWRF model, the most reliable intensity model once a system has developed.


Figure 3. Tracking map for TD 16 as of 10 AM EST Monday, November 21, 2016.

How rare is a hurricane landfall in Nicaragua?
Tropical storms and hurricanes move into Nicaragua from the east every few years, but one as far south as TD 16 is a more uncommon event. If a Hurricane Otto develops and strikes as currently predicted, it could be the southernmost hurricane landfall on record in Central America. There are no recorded Atlantic hurricane landfalls in Costa Rica or Panama. A weak tropical storm made landfall in Costa Rica in December 1887, and Panama: Hurricane Martha, which struck as a strong tropical storm in Veraguas Province, Panama, on November 24, 1969. “Undoubtedly, there have been other tropical cyclones that moved into Panama, but this was the first one that was definitely tracked,” said Robert Simpson and NHC colleagues in their roundup of the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season.

Noteworthy landfalls in Nicaragua, shown here in rough order from north to south, include:

Felix (September 4, 2007): Cat 5, landfall just south of the Nicaragua-Honduras border
Ida (November 5, 2009): Cat 1, landfall near La Barra del Rio Grande
Beta (October 30, 2005): Cat 2, landfall near La Barra del Rio Grande
1906 Florida Keys Hurricane (October 10, 1906): Cat 3, landfall on central Nicaragua coast
Cesar (July 28, 1996): Cat 1, landfall north of Bluefields
Gert (September 15, 1993): tropical storm, landfall near Bluefields
Joan (October 22, 1988): Cat 4, landfall south of Bluefields
Irene (September 19, 1971); Cat 1, landfall south of Bluefields
Bret (August 10, 1993): tropical storm, landfall near Punta Gorda Natural Reserve

Heavy rains the big threat from TD 16
TD 16 is likely to bring torrential rains, landslides, and flooding to parts of Central America. The region’s complex, rugged topography may lead to several widely dispersed areas of extremely heavy rain. The most confident outlook is for several inches of rain over nearly all of Nicaragua, with a core of 10” - 15” amounts very possible within TD 16’s circulation as it makes landfall and moves inland. The westerly flow south of TD 16 will impinge into parts of Costa Rica and Panama, leading to very heavy rain (10” or more) already under way on some of the region’s south- and west-facing slopes. Another core of torrential rain (again, 10” or more possible) is projected by models to develop later this week as TD 16’s outer circulation moves along the north coast of Honduras, perhaps extending into southern Belize and eastern Guatemala.

We’ll be back with our next update by midday Tuesday. Our post on GOES-R will appear after the threat from TD 16 has passed.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Aerial picture taken on September 6, 2007, in the village of Sandy Bay, Nicaragua, after the passage of Hurricane Felix. The southernmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record prior to Matthew in 2016, Felix caused 133 deaths, nearly all in Nicaragua, and destroyed thousands of homes in the city of Bilwi. Image credit: Oscar Navarrette/AFP/Getty Images.





Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great Update Mr. Henson; a slow moving storm with lots of rain may cause loss of life in Central America from this one. Given the potential record lowest latitude strike for CA, all the more reason to worry for folks down there not used to seeing this much rain in a short period of time: a lot more rain and convection building in since just a few hours ago:




"As TD 16 develops, we'll want to start keeping a closer eye on the HWRF model, the most reliable intensity model once a system has developed."

Well...



BTW...what's up with recon?

3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 21/1130Z WAS CANCELED AND MISSION
FOR 21/2000Z ABORTED.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!
Nice little storm overnight in Soo Cal. Not a monster by any means, but decent enough. .72" at my location . Here is a link to other NWS San Diego area rainfall totals.

Link
And who would have thought that we would have 17 storms this season......................Once it mixes out the dry air, this one could end up intensifying quite a bit if sheer drops under the forecast anti-cylone as it continues to sink to the South/SW below the current shear:\




Quoting 2. Carnivorous:

"As TD 16 develops, we'll want to start keeping a closer eye on the HWRF model, the most reliable intensity model once a system has developed."

Well...



BTW...what's up with recon?

3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 21/1130Z WAS CANCELED AND MISSION
FOR 21/2000Z ABORTED.

Unlikely scenario
thanks for the cold day lunch time read
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
12:00 PM EST Monday 21 November 2016
Condition:
Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:
29.9 inches
Tendency:
Rising
Temperature:
33.4°F
Dew point:
14.4°F
Humidity:
45%
Wind:
NW 25 gust 41 mph

chill temp is about 19 right now tonights low will be -5c winds will diminish near or just after midnight lake effect should come to an end after that time
Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
The main band of flurries off Georgian Bay has shifted east of the Greater Toronto Area. It extends from southern Georgian Bay across Lake Simcoe through eastern Durham region. It is expected to remain in this position today but shift farther west again tonight.

Although the odd light flurry will persist near Toronto today, no accumulation is expected. As the band potentially affects the Toronto area again beginning this evening, another 2 cm may occur.

If the flurries move in again this evening, some impacts may be felt for commuters after 6 pm with locally slippery conditions once again.

Any flurries that develop this evening will end later tonight or by early Tuesday.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 5. weathermanwannabe:

And who would have thought that we would have 17 storms this season......................Once it mixes out the dry air, this one could end up intensifying quite a bit if sheer drops under the forecast anti-cylone as it continues to sink to the South/SW below the current shear:\







If it stays south for a while, it may survive and strengthen. Coming north now would probably spell DOOM for the TD 16. Track forecast into Nicaragua but who knows if it just sits and spins for a while.
nations capital Ottawa

port perry
eastern outskirts of Toronto highway toll 407

end of the don valley 404 north Toronto

GFS calls for a trend toward less extreme temperature anomalies in the Arctic during the next 7 days. From about plus 6 C to plus 3.5 C area-wide. I hope it ends up being right. Climate Reanalyzer link.
Hello Otto

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OTTO...
1:00 PM EST Mon Nov 21
Location: 11.5N 79.3W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

This is the reason for the upgrade:

16L/TS/O/CX
I would not be surprise if Otto reach cat 2 intensity before landfall in southern Nicaragua/extreme northern Costa Rica.
Some proto hot towers starting to pop up in the circulation and there is a band over land trying to wrap around and fill in that gap in the SE quad.............Could get real interesting this time tomorrow if D-Max is kind to the storm early in the am.  Also noting the curvature of the land is it heading into and how that might help tighten up the circulation on approach................Uncharted waters with a storm this far South so it will be real interesting to see how much it can intensify before landfall.




BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OTTO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the islands of San Andres
and Providencia should monitor the progress of Otto, since a
Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 79.3 West. Otto is
nearly stationary, and a west-southwestward to westward drift is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Otto could become a hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

T-9 days remain of 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
90L started looking like it was starting to wind up last night. And now we have Otto! Any possibility of Otto coming north? North is currently a dead zone with the high winds there now but if Otto sits and spins for a few days does the GOM or Northern/Eastern Carribean come into play? If the 2 cold fronts north of Otto lift out does building high pressure push it west into Central America or?

The closest working bouy to the storm in the Atlantic is well to the North, due South of Jamaica, but pressure are falling there with gusts out of the E-NE up to 19 knots.

 



NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2016 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (42°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F
really hope we get something out of this.....loving the slightly cooler and drier air but just not enough rain this year
Quoting 26. weathermanwannabe:

The closest working bouy to the storm in the Atlantic is well to the North, due South of Jamaica, but pressure are falling there with gusts out of the E-NE up to 19 knots.

 



NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2016 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (42°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F
At the tail end of a cold front in November=Hurricanes 101...LOL

I don't see how a storm this far South at this point could get picked up to the North; however, if steering currents slacken, I would hate to see it linger and lash the Central American coastal regions for several days;

Quoting 27. 19N81W:

really hope we get something out of this.....loving the slightly cooler and drier air but just not enough rain this year

1008mb and falling quite a ways away from buoy


thanksgiving storm possible leading up too weekend more snow for lower lakes north east possible
For future reference as we figure out which Countries might be the hardest hit by this one:

Image result for map of central america

And here are the mountain ranges; the flooding and mud-slides could be catastrophic if this storm stalls or crawls at a snails pace near/across Central America and particularly Western Panama, North Western-Nicaragua, and most of Costa Rica:

Image result for map of central america mountain ranges






 
Will need to check all the models to see if fronts lift out and see what those High Pressure areas in SE USA do movement wise.......Current track is into Central America.........but if Otto sits and spins for a few days? We def do not want Otto to pull a Hurricane Mitch and sit off the coast and dump copious amounts of rain to repeat that horrible flooding that killed thousands of people in Central America.

looks like flurries moving back west from east end of 407 toll east of Toronto

I think it was Honduras that got most of the destruction from Hurricane Mitch
Quoting 4. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Nice little storm overnight in Soo Cal. Not a monster by any means, but decent enough. .72" at my location . Here is a link to other NWS San Diego area rainfall totals.

Link

CoCoRaHS(CA-RV-19) reported .55" just around the corner from me. That was at 7:00 and it continued to rain so maybe I made the .77 that was forecast....
Quoting 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like flurries moving back west from east end of 407 toll east of Toronto




I'm dreaming of a white Thanksgiving and Christmas!
Thanks for the updates Mr. Henson....
By looking at this topo map I'd say Otto has a good chance of making it across to the Pacific.

Quoting 38. PedleyCA:


CoCoRaHS(CA-RV-19) reported .55" just around the corner from me. That was at 7:00 and it continued to rain so maybe I made the .77 that was forecast....


Good deal Ped! Twas pretty decent storm....Sunny here now. Forecasters got it pretty good this time. I missed out on the last one where you got a good dose of water. Most reports were right on 1/2 to 3/4 coast and inland down here. Palomar got like 1.7" for top spot down here. All in all pretty good storm! Next chance unless things change is Sunday-Monday.
Very strong burst of convection around the core in the last two hours and trying to figure out if an eye is trying to pop out: discuss amongst yourselves.............................







Let me try that again.

Totally off topic but interesting none the less

It's official: NASA's peer-reviewed EM Drive paper has finally been published
A link to the paper is embedded in the article

Link
Quoting 46. GeoffreyWPB:






Pretty much a cluster track west to Central America.
Quoting 43. weathermanwannabe:

Very strong burst of convection around the core in the last two hours and trying to figure out if an eye is trying to pop out: discuss amongst yourselves.............................










Thought I saw on on a earlier loop, at least a band wrapping around with clear area in the middle.....now...who knows?...lol
Quoting 45. justmehouston:

Totally off topic but interesting none the less

It's official: NASA's peer-reviewed EM Drive paper has finally been published
A link to the paper is embedded in the article

Link


Super interesting stuff and way above my own comprehension.........With advances with drones and nano-technology, I would think that they could send up a mini-version of it (test-bed) along with other other Intl. Space Station projects and test it out in the vacuum of space..........Easier said than done I suppose given the expense and negative peer review thus far.
Quoting 47. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Pretty much a cluster track west to Central America.


Have you cleared that with WKC?
Quoting 49. weathermanwannabe:



Super interesting stuff and way above my own comprehension.........With advances with drones and nano-technology, I would think that they could send up a mini-version of it (test-bed) along with other other Intl. Space Station projects and test it out in the vacuum of space..........Easier said than done I suppose given the expense and negative peer review thus far.


Mini nothing. It supposedly gives millinewtons of thrust for killowatts of power. It's not going to be small, even as a test satellite. :)

That being said, this is still a long way from being justified for space testing. The results aren't consistent enough. Not only that, but it doesn't work according to how the originator of the idea claims (or by any mechanism we are currently aware of). The possibility of some sort of out-gassing or other external experimental error has not been ruled out either.

This a preliminary "hmmm, that's funny" paper. Now, the results have to be replicated and validated. Further testing needs to be done. If independent research groups verify the results, then we're getting somewhere. There would also have to be a physical model at least hypothesized so that a reasonable set of circumstances could be tested for if deployed into space. The last thing you wan't to do is throw something into orbit and have a rapid unplanned disassembly occur due to some unforeseen issue.
Here is the 2:00 pm CIMSS shear update; there is an anti-cyclone over land (centered near the Colombian-Venezuelan boarder) to the East of Otto but I do not know if this is the actual feature that is going to slide West towards the core or an independent one:





Ouch.
Xyrus20002:57 PM EST on November 21, 2016

Thanks for that informed response; suppose that nixes my original thought of just tossing a reinforced microwave oven, with wings, out of one of the Space Station air-locks to see what happens........................................... ......
Quoting 43. weathermanwannabe:

Very strong burst of convection around the core in the last two hours and trying to figure out if an eye is trying to pop out: discuss amongst yourselves.............................









Ought to say that in lat15, mer70 another TS seem to be forming (to the right of Otto).
Quoting 55. Uragani:


Ought to say that in lat15, mer70 another TS seem to be forming (to the right of Otto).

There is a little spin to it.
Quoting 51. Xyrus2000:



Mini nothing. It supposedly gives millinewtons of thrust for killowatts of power. It's not going to be small, even as a test satellite. :)

That being said, this is still a long way from being justified for space testing. The results aren't consistent enough. Not only that, but it doesn't work according to how the originator of the idea claims (or by any mechanism we are currently aware of). The possibility of some sort of out-gassing or other external experimental error has not been ruled out either.

This a preliminary "hmmm, that's funny" paper. Now, the results have to be replicated and validated. Further testing needs to be done. If independent research groups verify the results, then we're getting somewhere. There would also have to be a physical model at least hypothesized so that a reasonable set of circumstances could be tested for if deployed into space. The last thing you wan't to do is throw something into orbit and have a rapid unplanned disassembly occur due to some unforeseen issue.



The article mentions the following:

"But is the first peer-reviewed research ever published on the EM Drive, which firmly takes it out of the realm of pseudoscience into a technology that's worth taking skeptically, but seriously.

The next step for the EM Drive is for it to be tested in space, which is scheduled to happen in the coming months, with plans to launch the first EM Drive having been made back in September."

Not arguing with you Xyrus2000, I'm just reading and trying to learn here.
The paper was said to be peer reviewed and was written by NASA engineers ...why would they publish a "that's funny" paper?
As astutely noted earlier by another Blogger, Otto is slowly but surely starting to detach from the frontal trof as an independent entity:





Otto is here I see. Long time no blogging
The 4:00 PM advisory is out (no hurricane) but a very slow drift to the West............Otto
is going to be around for a while:


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...OTTO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the islands of San Andres
and Providencia should monitor the progress of Otto. A Tropical
Storm Watch may be required for San Andres tonight or early
Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 79.2 West. Otto is
nearly stationary, and a generally westward drift is expected over
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Otto could
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across portions of
central and western Panama and southeastern Costa Rica through
Wednesday, with isolated totals upwards of 10 to 15 inches across
the higher terrain. These rains could result in life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Additional heavy rainfall may move
into portions of Costa Rica Wednesday night into Thursday as the
system approaches the coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.


Quoting 55. Uragani:


Ought to say that in lat15, mer70 another TS seem to be forming (to the right of Otto).


Interesting observation. Matthew also appeared to have a secondary "lobe" in a similar location while it was intensifying. Will be interesting to see what, if any, effect that has on Otto's future.
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Since the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave
satellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better
organized. Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of
this afternoon's aerial reconnaissance mission. The initial
intensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier
scatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB. The upper-level outflow is restricted over the
southeastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued
south-southeasterly vertical shear. Strengthening to a hurricane
seems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close
to the model consensus. There remains a lot of uncertainty as to
whether Otto will survive crossing Central America. The official
forecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as
suggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs.

There has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while
Otto remains in an environment of weak steering currents. The
global models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building
to the north of the storm over the next several days. This should
cause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a
continued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the
latter part of the period. The official track forecast is close to
a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.



[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
1.KateNovember 20 - 21, 1985120Florida Panhandle2.Wrong-way LennyNovember 17 - 18, 1999155Northern Lesser Antilles3.Hurricane SevenNovember 17 - 18, 1912115South of Jamaica4.1932 Cuba HurricaneNovember 5 - 10, 1932135Cuba5.PalomaNovember 8, 2008145Cuba6.GretaNovember 5 - 6, 1956140Mid-Atlantic7.MichelleNovember 3 - 5, 2001140Cuba8.BetaOctober 30, 2005115Nicaragua9.HattieOctober 28 - 31, 1961160Belize10.MitchOctober 25 - 28, 1998180Honduras11.Hurricane NineOctober 29, 1867130Northern Lesser Antilles12.FoxOctober 26, 1952115Cuba
From the WU archives; not only is Otto the lowest in latitude already but he will make history if he reaches hurricane status as the latest forming one:

Late Season Major Hurricanes

All Late Season Major Hurricanes, Ranked by How Late They Appeared

RankNameDateWinds (mph)Location
16L/TS/O/CX



Published on Nov 14, 2016
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PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS - FROM JMA
--------------------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.3
* ORIGIN TIME 2100 UTC NOV 21 2016
* COORDINATES 37.3 NORTH 141.6 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.3 OCCURRED
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN AT 2100 UTC ON MONDAY
NOVEMBER 21 2016.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 300 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

JAPAN.


Link
Tsunami warning issued after quake off Fukushima in Japan, 7.3 magnitude.



Impressive outflow
WEAK53 PAAQ 212110
TIBAK1

Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
110 PM PST Mon Nov 21 2016

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA, BRITISH
COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...

EVALUATION
----------
* There is no tsunami danger for the areas listed above.

* Based on earthquake information and historic tsunami records
the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a tsunami.

* An earthquake has occurred with parameters listed below.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
assessment and changes may occur.

* Magnitude 7.3
* Origin Time 1200 AKST Nov 21 2016
1300 PST Nov 21 2016
2100 UTC Nov 21 2016
* Coordinates 37.3 North 141.6 East
* Depth 6 miles
* Location near the east coast of Honshu, Japan


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Refer to the internet site ntwc.arh.noaa.gov for
additional information.

* Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon,
Washington, British Columbia and Alaska should refer to the
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages at ptwc.weather.gov.

* This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning center
message for this event unless additional information becomes
available.

$$

529
WEPA40 PHEB 212129
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2128 UTC MON NOV 21 2016

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.3
* ORIGIN TIME 2100 UTC NOV 21 2016
* COORDINATES 37.3 NORTH 141.6 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.3 OCCURRED
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN AT 2100 UTC ON MONDAY
NOVEMBER 21 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

JAPAN.


* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED IF
NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
KATSUURA JAPAN 35.1N 140.3E 2150 11/21
KUSHIRO JAPAN 42.9N 144.3E 2217 11/21
HACHINOHE JAPAN 40.5N 141.5E 2236 11/21
SHIMIZU JAPAN 32.8N 133.0E 2312 11/21
NOBEOKA JAPAN 32.5N 131.8E 2319 11/21


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

Quoting 58. weathermanwannabe:

As astutely noted earlier by another Blogger, Otto is slowly but surely starting to detach from the frontal trof as an independent entity:







Is it forming an eye?
Bulletin Identifier
Bulletin Value
Event Magnitude :
7.3
Event Depth :
6.2 Mi.
Event Lat :
37.3 ° N
Event Lon :
141.6 ° E
Event Origin Time :
Mon 21 Nov 2016 20:59:46 PM UTC
‎11‎/‎21‎/‎2016‎ ‎3‎:‎59‎:‎46‎ ‎PM
Bulletin Issue Time :
Mon 21 Nov 2016 21:10:30 PM UTC
‎11‎/‎21‎/‎2016‎ ‎4‎:‎10‎:‎30‎ ‎PM
Total number of sites :
257
Quoting 70. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

529
WEPA40 PHEB 212129
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2128 UTC MON NOV 21 2016

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.3
* ORIGIN TIME 2100 UTC NOV 21 2016
* COORDINATES 37.3 NORTH 141.6 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.3 OCCURRED
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN AT 2100 UTC ON MONDAY
NOVEMBER 21 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

JAPAN.


* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED IF
NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
KATSUURA JAPAN 35.1N 140.3E 2150 11/21
KUSHIRO JAPAN 42.9N 144.3E 2217 11/21
HACHINOHE JAPAN 40.5N 141.5E 2236 11/21
SHIMIZU JAPAN 32.8N 133.0E 2312 11/21
NOBEOKA JAPAN 32.5N 131.8E 2319 11/21


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$




As I said earlier Polarity switch is in the process with the earthquakes in the ring of fire! this is only the beginning!
English live TV report from Japan about a probably approaching tsunami:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/
I am glad I am not in Japan, I mean ok I got Matthew which destroyed crap here but Japan get powerful earthquakes and tsunamis and had the trop trio earlier this year, remember Lionrock?
Fukushima IMPACT
Major Quake Hits Fukushima, Japan, Site of 2011 Tsunami and still leaking into the Pacific Ocean, out of control nuclear Meltdown.....
I took a break from the Blog for 30 minutes to go outside to take in some beautiful and cool fresh air and a Tsunami hits..............And Yall are already on top of it; Mother Nature never ceases to amaze................Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall, and Otto, in the am.


Image result for map of honshu island






Tsunami Warnings / Tsunami Advisories

Issued at 06:02 JST, 22 Nov. 2016

******************Headline******************
Tsunami Warnings issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:
Evacuate immediately
  FUKUSHIMA PREF.

*******************Text********************
Tsunami Warnings have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:

  *FUKUSHIMA PREF.

Tsunami Advisories have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan:

  PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
  IWATE PREF.
  MIYAGI PREF.
  IBARAKI PREF.
  KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.

Tsunamis are expected to arrive imminently in the following coastal regions of Japan (coastal regions above with asterisks):
  FUKUSHIMA PREF.

***********Tsunami Forecast definitions************
Evacuate immediately

Tsunami Warning
Damage due to tsunami waves is expected.
Evacuate immediately from coastal regions and riverside areas to a safer place such as high ground or an evacuation building.
Tsunami waves are expected to hit repeatedly. Do not leave safe ground until the warning is lifted.

Tsunami Advisory
A marine threat is present. Get out of the water and leave coastal regions immediately.
Due to the risk of ongoing strong currents, do not enter the sea or approach coastal regions until the advisory is lifted.

Tsunami Forecast (slight sea level changes)
Slight sea-level changes may be observed in coastal regions, but no tsunami damage is expected.

******* Earthquake Information ********
Occurred at 
05:59 JST, 22 Nov. 2016
Region name 
FUKUSHIMA-KEN OKI
Latitude
37.3N
Longitude
141.6E
Depth 
about 10 km
Magnitude 
7.3
Quoting 75. barbamz:

English live TV report from Japan about a probably approaching tsunami:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/

Crazy tidal behavior there already visible on the port camera. Just bringing the link up there actually.
Tsunami Observations
As of 07:13 AM JST [22:13 PM UTC]
Data marked with # are newly issued or have been revised.

Soma
Initial tsunami arrival time #06:54 JST, 22 Nov. Fall
Current largest tsunami observed #07:06 JST, 22 Nov. 0.9 m

Iwaki-shi Onahama
Initial tsunami arrival time 06:29 JST, 22 Nov. Fall
Current largest tsunami observed 06:49 JST, 22 Nov. 0.6 m

Oarai
Initial tsunami arrival time #06:52 JST, 22 Nov. Fall
Current largest tsunami observed #07:08 JST, 22 Nov. 0.5 m

Katsuura-shi Okitsu
Initial tsunami arrival time #Arrival of initial tsunami unconfirmed.
Current largest tsunami observed #07:03 JST, 22 Nov. 0.3 m
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/joho.html

Tsunami Observations
As of 07:18 JST [22:18 PM UTC]
Data marked with # are newly issued or have been revised.

Ofunato
Initial tsunami arrival time #06:56 JST, 22 Nov. Fall
Current largest tsunami observed #07:08 JST, 22 Nov. 0.3 m

Ishinomaki-shi Ayukawa
Initial tsunami arrival time #Arrival of initial tsunami unconfirmed.
Current largest tsunami observed #07:04 JST, 22 Nov. 0.3 m
Quoting 82. 999Ai2016:

Crazy tidal behavior there already visible on the port camera. Just bringing the link up there actually.

This has just been reported in Japanese TV NHK :-(



Edit: Meanwhile cooling system resumed working, thankfully.
992
WEPA40 PHEB 212227
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2221 UTC MON NOV 21 2016

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UNCHANGED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.3
* ORIGIN TIME 2100 UTC NOV 21 2016
* COORDINATES 37.3 NORTH 141.6 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.3 OCCURRED
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN AT 2100 UTC ON MONDAY
NOVEMBER 21 2016.

* TSUNAMI WAVES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

JAPAN.


* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT NO THREAT IS
EXPECTED.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
KATSUURA JAPAN 35.1N 140.3E 2150 11/21
KUSHIRO JAPAN 42.9N 144.3E 2217 11/21
HACHINOHE JAPAN 40.5N 141.5E 2236 11/21
SHIMIZU JAPAN 32.8N 133.0E 2312 11/21
NOBEOKA JAPAN 32.5N 131.8E 2319 11/21


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
--------------------

* THE FOLLOWING ARE TSUNAMI WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL
AND/OR DEEP-OCEAN SEA LEVEL GAUGES AT THE INDICATED
LOCATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS MEASURED WITH
RESPECT TO THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL.

GAUGE TIME OF MAXIMUM WAVE
COORDINATES MEASURE TSUNAMI PERIOD
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON (UTC) HEIGHT (MIN)
-------------------------------------------------- -----------
MERA JP 34.9N 139.8E 2206 0.09M/ 0.3FT 08
OFUNATO HONSHU JP 39.0N 141.8E 2207 0.28M/ 0.9FT 12

* THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY REPORTS A TSUNAMI MEASUREMENT
OF 0.90M AT SOMA JAPAN.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$
000
WEHW42 PHEB 212109
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-212309 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1109 AM HST MON NOV 21 2016

TO - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1100 AM HST 21 NOV 2016
COORDINATES - 37.3 NORTH 141.6 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 7.3 MOMENT

EVALUATION

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A TSUNAMI THREAT
MESSAGE FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
EARTHQUAKE. HOWEVER... BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA
THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

$$
oh no...
I work with people who don't even know what Fukushima is, let alone Chernobyl-

now what?
Quoting 88. aquak9:

oh no...
I work with people who don't even know what Fukushima is, let alone Chernobyl-

now what?
MAKE COFFEE break out the
"gradual and slow rise 28.7( 0.2ºC) / hr... of reactor"

"seven days to reach max at this rate"

"cooling system not working"
Quoting 91. aquak9:

"gradual and slow rise 28.7( 0.2ºC) / hr... of reactor"

"seven days to reach max at this rate"

"cooling system not working"

I understand this was at a different power plant than Daiichi.
Quoting 91. aquak9:

"gradual and slow rise 28.7( 0.2ºC) / hr... of reactor"

"seven days to reach max at this rate"

"cooling system not working"
I think it was shut down as a precaution it will be restarted once all clear is given
TEPCO preparing along w Fukushima Diachi to restart cooling plant
The U.S. Embassy in Panama City just sent out this message for Americans currently living in or visiting Panama:

Emergency Message: Tropical Storm Otto
Panama
21 November 2016

U.S. Embassy Panama City alerts U.S. citizens in the Panama that a tropical storm watch associated with Tropical Storm Otto is in effect for Panama. Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of Panama over the next few days. The combination of a dangerous storm surge along the coast with large waves could raise water levels. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are expected to occur. The Panamanian National System of Civil Protection (SINAPROC) has planted red flags on beaches in the Caribbean to warn the public of strong currents and waves. On November 21, SINAPROC evacuated members of the Guanabano community in Chiriqui and transferred them to a shelter in El Majagual. Please visit the National Weather Service’s website for updates and to follow the storm’s path. You can also find Panama-specific information on the SINAPROC twitter page at https://twitter.com/sinaproc_panama.
Japan Self Defense footage shows no damage to Fukushima plant
Quoting 92. oldnewmex:


I understand this was at a different power plant than Daiichi.
I'm just typing what I hear from thier local news, mostly they are all worried about FD

see post 75
This has been an eventful day, Otto and the Japanese earthquake. Mother nature must be pissed off.
Quoting 98. NCHurricaneTracker69:

This has been an eventful day, Otto and the Japanese earthquake. Mother nature must be pissed off.

I can't for the life of me think of any reason why that should be the case. Can you?
Now this looks interesting:
Quoting 88. aquak9:

oh no...
I work with people who don't even know what Fukushima is, let alone Chernobyl-

now what?

Didn't you know, ignorant is the thing to be these days. It's been in all the papers. Really, I'm surprised you missed it.
Quoting 101. ACSeattle:

Didn't you know, ignorant is the thing to be these days. It's been in all the papers. Really, I'm surprised you missed it.


I get all my news from Twitter, hahaha
upp'd to 7.4 by JMA (japan meteorological)
Tsunami Warnings / Tsunami Advisories

Issued at 08:09 JST, 22 Nov. 2016

******************Headline******************
Tsunami Warnings updated
Evacuate immediately
  MIYAGI PREF.
  FUKUSHIMA PREF.

*******************Text********************
Tsunami Advisories have been upgraded to Tsunami Warnings for the following coastal regions of Japan:

  MIYAGI PREF.

*******Tsunami Warnings/Advisories now in effect********
Major Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Warnings and/or Advisories are currently in effect for the following coastal regions of Japan:


  MIYAGI PREF.
  FUKUSHIMA PREF.

  PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
  IWATE PREF.
  IBARAKI PREF.
  KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
  UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
  IZU ISLANDS

***********Tsunami Forecast definitions************
Evacuate immediately

Tsunami Warning
Damage due to tsunami waves is expected.
Evacuate immediately from coastal regions and riverside areas to a safer place such as high ground or an evacuation building.
Tsunami waves are expected to hit repeatedly. Do not leave safe ground until the warning is lifted.

Tsunami Advisory
A marine threat is present. Get out of the water and leave coastal regions immediately.
Due to the risk of ongoing strong currents, do not enter the sea or approach coastal regions until the advisory is lifted.

Tsunami Forecast (slight sea level changes)
Slight sea-level changes may be observed in coastal regions, but no tsunami damage is expected.

******* Earthquake Information ********
Occurred at 
05:59 JST, 22 Nov. 2016
Region name 
FUKUSHIMA-KEN OKI
Latitude
37.4N
Longitude
141.6E
Depth 
about 30 km
Magnitude 
7.4
Re: post 51 Xyrus "rapid unplanned disassembly" That's the best euphemism I've seen in awhile.
speaking of Twitter- from Twitter NWS:

Tsunami NOT expected; CA,OR,WA,BC,and AK

Anchorage, Alaska 1327AKST Nov 21: Tsunami NOT expected
Quoting 4. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Nice little storm overnight in Soo Cal. Not a monster by any means, but decent enough. .72" at my location . Here is a link to other NWS San Diego area rainfall totals.

Link


A bit over a quarter inch here. It either goes north of us, or south.
they keep saying that the tsunami will strike repeatedly (kinda like a fool with a Twitter account) BUT- they're not having any more waves since the first few ~ 20-40min after the quake.
Quoting 108. aquak9:

they keep saying that the tsunami will strike repeatedly (kinda like a fool with a Twitter account) BUT- they're not having any more waves since the first few ~ 20-40min after the quake.
all clear normally given 2 hrs after first waves if no others are observed

tidal wave come in then goes out in a series of waves the first wave may not be highest recorded and additional waves could be higher than the first rounds
Mimic shows a eye for some reason.Maybe RI in the forecast? If so the gfs is picking up on something because it shows a 960 mb storm.

Link
111. elioe
I said I'd make a blog about Arctic halocline today. Now I rescind it. Originally I thought, that global model projections were creating the prevailing view, that the halocline will remain. As such, it could have been subject to faulty parameterizations. That's why I thought that even the most simplistic one-dimensional model could be useful. However, apparently since the last time that I looked for primary sources, a more professional, peer-reviewed study using a 1D model has been done. And so, my approach has no scientific value at all, lol.

Was I wrong about the future of the halocline? Maybe. The study says, that depending on parameterization, it could be destroyed by increased diffusivity in ten years. Or remain stable forever. How many years has it been since the last field study? I don't know. We may see soon. Part of the halocline eroded already in the 1990's.
if anyone understands the data, check out the body of the coast of japan on nbdc. national bout data center, its the one flashing.
Quoting 112. Tampa969mlb:

if anyone understands the data, check out the body of the coast of japan on nbdc. national bout data center, its the one flashing.
spellcheck sucks its bouy
Quoting 99. ACSeattle:


I can't for the life of me think of any reason why that should be the case. Can you?


Certainly not global warming.
Quoting 101. ACSeattle:

Didn't you know, ignorant is the thing to be these days. It's been in all the papers. Really, I'm surprised you missed it.
Silly me! I thought "Idiocracy" was a comedy, not a docu-drama and reality show about 2016 America.
Some small waves still being recorded


WEPA40 RJTD 220013
MEASUREMENTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE

LOCATION TIME SIZE
KUJIKO 2254 80CM
MIYAKO 2309 40CM
KAMAISHI 2358 20CM
OFUNATO 2256 40CM
ISHINOMAKISHI AYUKAWA 2239 80CM
ISHINOMAKIKO 2311 80CM


Link
Tropical Storm OTTO
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 22, 2016:

Location: 11.0°N 79.2°W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A



Quoting 106. aquak9:

speaking of Twitter- from Twitter NWS:

Tsunami NOT expected; CA,OR,WA,BC,and AK

Anchorage, Alaska 1327AKST Nov 21: Tsunami NOT expected


Been watching this...

BTW - It's been a little active with the smaller quakes today - in the 4.x range... Hope that it's just stress relief and there isn't a larger one coming.
Otto
Quoting Bob Henson:



Bob Henson


Figure 4. Aerial picture taken on September 6, 2007, in the village of Sandy Bay, Nicaragua, after the passage of Hurricane Felix. The southernmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, Felix caused 133 deaths, nearly all in Nicaragua, and destroyed thousands of homes in the city of Bilwi. Image credit: Oscar Navarrette/AFP/Getty Images.


Correct me if i am wrong but isn't Matthew the southernmost cat 5 in the Atlantic?
I am a little surprised that the government of Colombia hasn't issued warnings for Providencia and San Andrés islands.
Quoting 122. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Correct me if i am wrong but isn't Matthew the southernmost cat 5 in the Atlantic?


Correct. Matthew took down Felix's record.
The global models are trying to leave behind a post-Otto low-level trough in the same area of the southwestern Caribbean Sea one week from now. It tries to develop a little before the deep continental troughs of winter decapitate it with wind shear. I think it's worth monitoring, even if a second round of tropical development is ultimately unlikely.
Quoting 124. CybrTeddy:



Correct. Matthew took down Felix's record.




Could be wrong, but I think Ivan 2004 was lowest latitude for a Cat5
Quoting 126. stormpetrol:





Could be wrong, but I think Ivan 2004 was lowest latitude for a Cat5


Nope. Matthew has that distinction now.
Quoting 126. stormpetrol:





Could be wrong, but I think Ivan 2004 was lowest latitude for a Cat5


Matthew became a Category 5 at 13.3N.

Ivan reached Category 5 status first at 13.7N.
Quoting 118. JaneGoodall:



Typical pretentious douchebaggery


That's not pretentious douchebaggery. Rapid Unplanned Dissembly (RUD) is an actual term used in the space program as far back as the 70s. The term has gained popularity as SpaceX is especially fond of the term for some reason, but they seem to have quite a few of those.
Yep Matthew 2016 holds the record now
This hurricane season has singlehandedly made up for the lackluster seasons of the last three years. I'd even go as far as to say that 2013 and 2014 were the two most boring years I've ever personally experienced.
Quoting 132. KoritheMan:

This hurricane season has singlehandedly made up for the lackluster seasons of the last three years. I'd even go as far as to say that 2013 and 2014 were the two most boring years I've ever personally experienced.

I agree. 2016 has been quite an interesting season for the Atlantic, much better than the past three. It has featured:
- An extremely rare January hurricane (Alex)
- Another pre-season storm (Bonnie)
- The earliest 3rd and 4th named storms on record (Colin and Danielle)
- A cool annular major hurricane in the subtropics (Gaston)
- The first Florida landfalling hurricane since Wilma (Hermine)
- The first storm to form inland over Florida (Julia)
- The first Atlantic category 5 since 2007 (Matthew)
- A near major hurricane landfall for Bermuda and one of the largest hurricanes on record, at a high latitude (Nicole)
- Now, a possible Thanksgiving hurricane? (Otto)
If anything Otto may be a little closer to Panama. Not too much movement west yet.

Quoting 137. GeoffreyWPB:





Westward Ho Young man!
I think the Canal Zone is getting wet tonight!

Link
Quoting 115. Xulonn:

Silly me! I thought "Idiocracy" was a comedy, not a docu-drama and reality show about 2016 America.

why come you have no tatoo?
must be those chem-trails.........

These carribbean storms this year have been quiet robust. Mathew rapidly intensified despite the presence of unfavorable sheer and now Otto is doing surprisingly well with high sheer. Once the sheer weakens over this storm it could get interesting, I wouldn't count out the possibility of this storm rapidly intensifying before landfall.
Wrapping up nicely. No doubt that this will be our next, and probably final, hurricane of the season.

Just catching up with Otto - I really hope it doesn't undergo rapid intensification. Certainly looks like bad news with the amount of rain it's going to bring!
Ridiculous fireball over Florida about 20 minutes ago over the Gulf. Without a doubt the brightest one I've ever seen in the night sky (and I've seen a lot of them). Anybody else catch it?
Quoting 143. CybrTeddy:

Wrapping up nicely. No doubt that this will be our next, and probably final, hurricane of the season
If it becomes a major (which would be pushing it) my season forecast would look pretty good.
Quoting 145. CybrTeddy:

Ridiculous fireball over Florida about 20 minutes ago over the Gulf. Without a doubt the brightest one I've ever seen in the night sky (and I've seen a lot of them). Anybody else catch it?
as long as it burned out we are good no reports of impact so that's good as well
There's a Low spining S of RD...

There was a fireball over Hungary earlier tonight at 1814 UTC 21 November.

. data time stamp invalid
Quoting 132. KoritheMan:

This hurricane season has singlehandedly made up for the lackluster seasons of the last three years. I'd even go as far as to say that 2013 and 2014 were the two most boring years I've ever personally experienced.

2013 was one ugly season that I hope I never see again. I can remember how active it was suppose to be and all we got were 14 lousy weak dry storms.


20161121 11:11:30 UTC ...
vel 42.6 km/s beg 95.9 km end 80.3 km

Quoting 148. sunlinepr:

There's a Low spining S of RD...




Unfortunately it's not forecast to develop and move NE :(
Otto rapidly intensifies as soon as the shear lets up. The actual satellite presentation is deceptively meager to the microwave presentation, which shows a well-defined low-level structure surrounded by what appears to be a formative eyewall.

Bet.
Quoting 145. CybrTeddy:

Ridiculous fireball over Florida about 20 minutes ago over the Gulf. Without a doubt the brightest one I've ever seen in the night sky (and I've seen a lot of them). Anybody else catch it?

I sure hope that wasn't GOES-16!
Quoting 148. sunlinepr:

There's a Low spining S of RD...




I feel like not enough attention is being given by most people toward its influence on Otto's development. I think it's largely responsible for the persistent southeasterly shear.
Quoting 145. CybrTeddy:

Ridiculous fireball over Florida about 20 minutes ago over the Gulf. Without a doubt the brightest one I've ever seen in the night sky (and I've seen a lot of them). Anybody else catch it?


Don't worry Teddy. I was just trying something new with my new gas barbeque.... It didn't work.
Yes it was interesting. First starting in January and still going in November!
Who knows, maybe a December storm. Last one was in 2005. (Zeta)

Quoting 132. KoritheMan:

This hurricane season has singlehandedly made up for the lackluster seasons of the last three years. I'd even go as far as to say that 2013 and 2014 were the two most boring years I've ever personally experienced.
Quoting 147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as long as it burned out we are good no reports of impact so that's good as well


No need for another Tunguska (or similar) event.
Quoting 138. HurricaneHunterJoe:

If anything Otto may be a little closer to Panama. Not too much movement west yet.




Just doin' a little dance
Quoting 157. Grothar:



Don't worry Teddy. I was just trying something new with my new gas barbeque.... It didn't work.


Told you not to put the frozen turkey in the deep fat fryer.

He's always doing things like this. Don't even ask what he was doing when the Crab Nebula exploded. ;)
Quoting 141. wartsttocs:


why come you have no tatoo?
must be those chem-trails.........




We just need to put Brawndo in the arctic. It's got electrolytes in it.
Quoting 122. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Correct me if i am wrong but isn't Matthew the southernmost cat 5 in the Atlantic?


Indeed it is! Caption is fixed. Thanks for the catch.
Quoting 111. elioe:

I said I'd make a blog about Arctic halocline today. Now I rescind it. Originally I thought, that global model projections were creating the prevailing view, that the halocline will remain. As such, it could have been subject to faulty parameterizations. That's why I thought that even the most simplistic one-dimensional model could be useful. However, apparently since the last time that I looked for primary sources, a more professional, peer-reviewed study using a 1D model has been done. And so, my approach has no scientific value at all, lol.

Was I wrong about the future of the halocline? Maybe. The study says, that depending on parameterization, it could be destroyed by increased diffusivity in ten years. Or remain stable forever. How many years has it been since the last field study? I don't know. We may see soon. Part of the halocline eroded already in the 1990's.

The enemy of the good is the better :)
This is quite impressive... I am really worried about the potential impacts in Nicaragua and Costa Rica :(

..AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FINDS OTTO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

good/morning almost a hurricane Otto might add on some Ace
Quoting 160. win1gamegiantsplease:



Just doin' a little dance

i actually see it slightly moving north, but only by like 5 km lol
at the same time, it seems like it's moving SSE, but only by like 10 km lol.
the 10% chance of major when 16 now Otto was designated looks more and more like a good bet. 986mb a/t/m and dropping. might see an eye today on vis.. those little cardboard houses with a tin roof are going to be no match for Otto
Bocas Del Toro...Panama. typical water home.
They have minimal tides there so nothing built that high. Strange because the pacific side 120 miles away has 12 foot tides.
Good morning everyone. Otto's kinda surprising me. I shut the tropics down after Nicole so it's hard to believe that we have yet another dangerous storm that's likely going to be a hurricane heading for landfall.

This has been, and I guess technically still Is, the best tracking season since 2012. And probably the most dramatic since 2010, or maybe even 2008. Going to be interesting to see what becomes of Otto.

What is the latest major hurricane on record?

And what is the southernmost hurricane record for this time of year?
170. JrWeathermanFL
7:45 AM EST on November 22, 2016


Good Morning; as I mentioned yesterday, between the curvature of the land mass, and d-max this morning, Otto did very well.



Quoting 171. weathermanwannabe:

170. JrWeathermanFL
7:45 AM EST on November 22, 2016


Good Morning; as I mentioned yesterday, between the curvature of the land mass, and d-max this morning, Otto did very well.

It will beat our Kate from 1985, by two days, as the latest forming Atlantic hurricane as well as being the furthest South to form.




There have been several hurricanes in December I think this won't have the record for latest hurricane


hurricane otto
Unfortunately, Otto has done so well, and still filing in the SE Quad, to the degree that many lives maybe lost in Central America due to the copious rain amounts from mudslides and flash flooding; they are not used to a large tropical storm-hurricane coming ashore in that region.............A very rare event for that part of the world whether looking at a tropical storm and/or a late November landfall.................The Atlantic Hurricane Season is the last thing on peoples minds in that part of the world at the moment.





Quoting 172. all4hurricanes:


There have been several hurricanes in December I think this won't have the record for latest hurricane

You may well be correct; perhaps the record (Kate) is for latest land falling hurricane in the United States.  Would have to check for landfalls elsewhere and for fish canes in December. 
Quoting 172. all4hurricanes:


There have been several hurricanes in December I think this won't have the record for latest hurricane


You are correct; I just pulled this from Wiki....................Good Catch:

Though the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs on November 30, the dates of October 31 and November 15 have also historically marked the official end date for the hurricane season.[3] December, the only month of the year after the hurricane season, has featured the cyclogenesis of fourteen tropical cyclones.[1] Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005 was the latest tropical cyclone to attain tropical storm intensity as it did so on December 30. However, the second Hurricane Alice in 1954 was the latest forming tropical cyclone to attain hurricane intensity. Both Zeta and Alice were the only two storms to exist in two calendar years – the former from 1954 to 1955 and the latter from 2005 to 2006.[9] No storms have been recorded to exceed Category 1 hurricane intensity in December.[1] In 1999, Hurricane Lenny reached Category 4 intensity on November 17 as it took an unprecedented west to east track across the Caribbean; its intensity made it the latest developing Category 4 hurricane, though this was well within the bounds of the hurricane season.[10] Hurricane Hattie (October 27-November 1, 1961) was initially thought to have been the latest forming Category 5 hurricane ever documented,[11] though reanalysis indicated that a devastating hurricane in 1932 reached such an intensity at a later date.[1][4] Consequently, this made the hurricane the latest developing tropical cyclone to reach all four Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale classifications past Category 1 intensity.[1]

Quoting 162. Xyrus2000:



We just need to put Brawndo in the arctic. It's got electrolytes in it.
because the arctic needs electrolytes
The core of Otto remains under favorable shear conditions all the way to the coast at this point; now the question is how strong will it get: I have no idea but maybe somewhere between a Cat 1 to cat 2 max (hopefully).



I think Otto will break a record that has been set for 47 years and was never done before.


(landfalling in Panama)
The powers that be in CA really need to get the word out to folks living on mountain sides and at the base of the local mountain ranges about the flash flooding threat.  The opposite situation of folks on the coast evacuating to higher ground nearby to avoid the storm surge. 



[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Here is the skinny on potential impacts from Accuweather:

Areas from central Panama to southern Honduras and El Salvador will be at an elevated risk for life-threatening flash and urban flooding and mudslides.

Winds will be strong enough near the center of the storm and in clusters of thunderstorms farther away from the center to cause sporadic property damage and power outages later this week.

Because of the slow movement of the storm, there will also be the risk of river flooding in the region.

People should not attempt to drive though flooded roads and be prepared to move to higher ground as the situation warrants.

Otto will weaken crossing the mountainous terrain of Central America.

However, the circulation center of the storm may survive into the eastern Pacific Ocean and could spawn a new tropical system with a new name.

Quoting 176. Pipejazz:


I have followed Jane for 30 years. This comment is certainly not hers. Have you committed identity theft?

It was made by one of her Chimpanzees. ;-]
While not an extremely large storm, it is big enough to blanket the entirely of Panama and Costa Rica as it crosses inland due to their narrow size and cause lots of major rain issues to the North through Nicaragua and Honduras/El Salvador if the Western track verifies.






Good Morning Folks,

It appears that a welcome change to all the dry weather recently is on the way next week but it could come with a price. I am seeing hints that a major severe weather outbreak could take place next week across the SE US which has been very dry the last several weeks. Below is the Euro Precip Ensemble and you can see the beginning next Tuesday the pattern flips. It also appears this stormy pattern will carry on thru December. Bottom line guys get ready for active weather potentially a Tornado Outbreak beginning next week from Louisiana over to Georgia then spreading down into FL on Wednesday.

Euro Precip Ensembles


Very Strong Mid level jet showing up on the Euro


Very high PWATS in place likely over 2" with some serious jet dynamics aloft could spell a heavy rain threat as well as severe weather threat.
I must have missed this.... Deni doesn't look like it did much if anything spectacular though.

It just snowed in Pico do Arieiro:
Quoting 186. JrWeathermanFL:

I must have missed this.... Deni doesn't look like it did much if anything spectacular though.




I tracked a SS in August around there. And some sources were like
"no it's a extratropical storm in the middle of the north pole"
Quoting 172. all4hurricanes:


There have been several hurricanes in December I think this won't have the record for latest hurricane


Yeah, Alice was a hurricane that spanned 2 calendar years.

I was most concerned with latest MAJOR hurricane. On the outside chance that Otto makes it there
BTW one of my predictions came true that I made back in Summer of 2015 came true on November 8th. LOL!!

Logo
Menu
Nov. 22, 2016
13:54 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo
GoRaw?
Note: "In. Flt" is maximum inbound flight level wind in F. "In. Sfc" is maximum inbound surface wind in D, estimated by SFMR or visually. If there are higher winds from flight level or surface, in the remarks, it is added in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 13:12Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2016
Storm Name: Otto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 12:51:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10°21'N 79°11'W (10.35N 79.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 97 statute miles (155 km) to the NNE (14°) from Panama City, Panama.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,318m (4,324ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSW (193°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 293° at 62kts (From the WNW at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (199°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast, NE
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the N (10°) from the flight level center at 12:54:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 230° at 5kts (From the SW at 6mph)
192. elioe
So, Otto at 12Z was 7 mbar deeper than predicted by 6Z HWRF. The actual intensity at 12Z was the same that was predicted by the HWRF run to occur at 21Z. And Otto has pretty consistently gone to the south of forecast track. I guess, that Otto will peak at 953 mbar and 115 mph, making landfall just south of Costa Rica / Nicaragua border at that intensity.
Quoting 190. StormTrackerScott:

BTW one of my predictions came true that I made back in Summer of 2015 came true on November 8th. LOL!!
So did Nostradamus many, many years before: "The great shameless, audacious bawler. He will be elected governor of the army..." (Century III, Quatrain 81).
Quoting 190. StormTrackerScott:

BTW one of my predictions came true that I made back in Summer of 2015 came true on November 8th. LOL!!

Hi Scott! Was it the one about Wunderkid growing a beard? I think several of us saw that one coming.
Quoting 186. JrWeathermanFL:

I must have missed this.... Deni doesn't look like it did much if anything spectacular though.



Image of Deni

45 mph
998 mbar
Formed: November 15th 2016
Dissipated: November 16th 2016
Deaths: 2
Affected Areas: S%uFFFDo Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais (torrencial rains and landslides)
Quoting 178. Tampa969mlb:

because the arctic needs electrolytes


That's what President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho says.

Quoting 190. StormTrackerScott:

BTW one of my predictions came true that I made back in Summer of 2015 came true on November 8th. LOL!!
Yes, you correctly predicted both super el nino and Hurricane Donald striking America on November 8th. The damage from the hurricane was so extensive that even rich celebrities were literally crying and threatened to move to Canada.
Quoting 174. weathermanwannabe:

Unfortunately, Otto has done so well, and still filing in the SE Quad, to the degree that many lives maybe lost in Central America due to the copious rain amounts from mudslides and flash flooding; they are not used to a large tropical storm-hurricane coming ashore in that region.............A very rare event for that part of the world whether looking at a tropical storm and/or a late November landfall.................The Atlantic Hurricane Season is the last thing on peoples minds in that part of the world at the moment.







... the rain and the storms are no longer where they are supposed to be :/
Quoting 197. Trumpisboss:


Yes, you correctly predicted both super el nino and Hurricane Donald striking America on November 8th. The damage from the hurricane was so extensive that even rich celebrities were literally crying and threatened to move to Canada.

we need to hold them to it...for sure lets all pitch in and buy em a oneway ticket
Good morning all. I don't know if anyone has talked about this yet this morning; haven't had time to read all the comments, but Steven Hawking has said that we only have about 1000 years left on this planet. Not surprising, but I wanted to post the words he ended his speech with since it's almost Thanksgiving and we all need a little cheering up.
"Remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, wonder about what makes the universe exist," he said. "Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at. It matters that you don't just give up."
Well it looks like Otto has a real chance of becoming a major hurricane. Conditions are set to become a little more favourable for strengthening over the next few days before it makes landfall, which should help it strengthen a little quicker. Another system strengthening quicker than the NHC has been forecasting. NHC have it strengthening into an 80kt hurricane now.

202. OKsky
Quoting 199. Tampa969mlb:

we need to hold them to it...for sure lets all pitch in and buy em a oneway ticket


Everyone sacrifice and pitch in to support the rich? Yep.. that sounds like yalls kind of logic.

Speaking of trickle down... We got some rain last night and the temps are very nice and comfortable in OKC right now.... I feel like a San Diegan or something. :D

The authorities in Costa Rica have started mandatory evacuations of over 4000 people in the extreme Northeastern region of the country.
I had the pleasure of visiting Costa Rica a couple of years ago. I've traveled quite a bit and it is one of the most beautiful places I have ever been, both the land and the people. There are many places in the interior that are accessible only by gravel roads cut into the hillsides (in some cases this is by the choice of locals who don't want hordes of tourist buses). It's easy to imagine that many of those roads will be washed out and that some towns will be cut off for many days. It's hard to blame the authorities there for not being fully prepared for such an unprecedented event.
Quoting 198. CaribBoy:



... the rain and the storms are no longer where they are supposed to be :/



Can you stop that, please? Storms with similar tracks have ocassionally formed perhaps for centuries now. Recent examples: Marta, Joan, Csar.
Otto appears to have started moving to the West in accordance with the current NHC track..................And potentially headed towards the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border region as noted by Eloie this morning.


Image result for map of central america




Quoting 204. science101:

I had the pleasure of visiting Costa Rica a couple of years ago. I've traveled quite a bit and it is one of the most beautiful places I have ever been, both the land and the people. There are many places in the interior that are accessible only by gravel roads cut into the hillsides (in some cases this is by the choice of locals who don't want hordes of tourist buses). It's easy to imagine that many of those roads will be washed out and that some towns will be cut off for many days. It's hard to blame the authorities there for not being fully prepared for such an unprecedented event.



I am glad you like my beautiful country. You are right, the government is doing a great effort, but some people in evacuating areas are not taking it seriously.
I am real interested to see how the curvature of the land might help tighten up the circulation downstream, and overall symmetric presentation, as it keeps headed West; impressive storm this morning with better 48 hour conditions ahead once the core, and SE Quad clears the landmass of Panama to help it fill in:










CIMMS has improved the time-lag between their analysis and posting on their site; used to take about an hour to post and here is the 11:00 am update just about 10 minutes out from 1500 UTC: Otto is stacked at the surface and mid-levels and slightly tilted to the NE at the upper levels.................That should improve over the next 48 as the storm deepens into the upper atmosphere and shear relaxes:

Surface:

Mid:


Upper:







hi; now that 'Otto' is a real threat to my country, Nicaragua, I have decided to join the blog; I use to follw the comments, but I think some 'on the ground' prespective may help in some cases
at the moment, it's a strange weather we've be living, because november is no a cyclonic month in the area; by definition, the rains end at october 31st in this side of the country (I live in Managua) and the weather turns dry, windy and kind of cool
this week the minimum has been below the 20°C, which is cool for my city but kind of normal in this month; and now, this freaking storm, at an out-of-date time.... the main concerns are at the Caribe Coast, where the hit will be direct, is the poorest, the most remote ara of the country
it's weird to see the forecast, with two days rain that are the mean of the wettest month, because another TS had hit the east coast, sooner in the month and the impact has been minimal at the west coast
Quoting 206. weathermanwannabe:

Otto appears to have started moving to the West in accordance with the current NHC track..................And potentially headed towards the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border region as noted by Eloie this morning.


Image result for map of central america






Seems like an eye is opening up
Quoting 211. Icybubba:


Seems like an eye is opening up


is self contained
Link
210. mavilesilva
11:19 AM EST on November 22, 2016

I hope that your authorities make an effort to warn your citizens on the coast; I suspect that those people you mention might have limited media coverage so any efforts that the military can make to go in and let folks know what is coming may save lots of lives.
It appears that Otto could not be in a worse position for trans-national shipping as there are boats parked off Colon waiting to run through the Panama Canal. I have seen no stories about it, but you can bet that timetables for delivery are being affected in multiple ports.
Quoting 200. OBXLurker:

Good morning all. I don't know if anyone has talked about this yet this morning; haven't had time to read all the comments, but Steven Hawking has said that we only have about 1000 years left on this planet. Not surprising, but I wanted to post the words he ended his speech with since it's almost Thanksgiving and we all need a little cheering up.
"Remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, wonder about what makes the universe exist," he said. "Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at. It matters that you don't just give up."

Excerpt from the CBS News article "Stephen Hawking: Humans won't survive another 1,000 years on Earth"

(...)

In recent months, Hawking has used his stature in the sciences to make broad statements about the thorny moral and political dilemmas facing modern societies.

In an essay published in The Guardian in July, Hawking argued that in order for humans to survive the massive, serious challenges ahead — climate change, overtaxed food production, and overpopulation, to name a few — they need to resist the individualism and isolationism that have fueled political movements like Brexit.

“We will need to adapt, rethink, refocus and change some of our fundamental assumptions about what we mean by wealth, by possessions, by mine and yours. Just like children, we will have to learn to share,” he wrote.

“If we fail then the forces that contributed to Brexit, the envy and isolationism not just in the UK but around the world that spring from not sharing, of cultures driven by a narrow definition of wealth and a failure to divide it more fairly, both within nations and across national borders, will strengthen. If that were to happen, I would not be optimistic about the long-term outlook for our species.”
Quoting 183. pingon:


It was made by one of her Chimpanzees. ;-]

Thanks for the quote. It seems that my original post was flagged out. I saw nothing wrong with it. Someone is impersonanating Jane Goodall, which is a malicious smear tactic. Someone got hurt feelie wizzies.
Don't know about an eye yet (or if there might be one underneath the current convective bursts) but those little white specs on the colored loops popping up from time to time, that might look like an eye, are probably a few towers of tall convection with very cold cloud tops as the upper half of the storm tries to align upwards: you can correlate the little white specs on the rainbow loop below to some of the high towers in the vis loop.






T-8 DAYS REMAIN 2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Quoting 212. mavilesilva:



is self contained
Link

if you mean by that "it's dry air" oh my god *sigh*
(i mean by that most tropical cyclone eyes that form at a early stage are definetely not dry air entrainment)
16L/H/O/C1
Quoting 218. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T-8 DAYS REMAIN 2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON


T equaling (x)*2, and x is the number in something like "T-8".
Beacuse if you remove 8 from 16, you get 8.


basically: t-8 = 8
No visible eye yet but hot tower activity in the vicinity of where an eye wall should be starting to form: 

46 degrees at the house this morning here in S.W. Florida. It felt like 0 degrees. I officially hate cold weather.
Now it's warmed up to the low 70s and it feels great outside.
But I pray I don't have to move up north for some reason the rest of my life. I do not want to live where it gets cold.
Quoting 214. Buddynoel:

It appears that Otto could not be in a worse position for trans-national shipping as there are boats parked off Colon waiting to run through the Panama Canal. I have seen no stories about it, but you can bet that timetables for delivery are being affected in multiple ports.
ya it will be a little bouncy down that way today
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
UK Survey Reveals Dangers of Floods Still Underestimated by Drivers
Floodlist.com - Nov 18.
John Curtin, Executive Director of Flood and Coastal Risk Management at the Environment Agency, said:
"The sheer number of people of all ages who wouldn't think twice about a potentially fatal decision to drive through a flood is deeply worrying. Our message is simple: don't." (...)

A World Wide Problem
Driving in flood water is not just a problem in the UK. Many flood related fatalities occur in vehicles in areas where car use is relatively high. In recent years, FloodList has reported on vehicle flood fatalities in numerous different countries in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, North America and Australia.
In Australia, a report by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) from 2010, said that 4 out of 10 deaths were associated with driving motor vehicles across flooded waterways or roadways, despite public warnings to avoid them. Another 8.8 per cent involved the collapse of a flooded roadway. (...)
229. vis0
Quoting 45. justmehouston:

Totally off topic but interesting none the less

It's official: NASA's peer-reviewed EM Drive paper has finally been published
A link to the paper is embedded in the article

Link

Just let NASA know to study the
push-pull of Galacsics..oh wait that's just in my imagination.  

Think, create a constant (mostly deep base /Hz sound) to which the EM
will "intr wave" bounce its "e" off the opposite equal reaction which follows my adjustment of Newton's laws that i had on my now deleted blogs (they where Wxu, Japanese and South American blogbytes, for future e-server archaeologist...those that will dig into old servers to find twists n turns of yesteryear's) Sadly i used it in one example to Explain what i think occurred as to TWA800, if those that saved those pgs read that, remember a Professor from a top university in Massachusetts actually spoke in front of a senate hearing as to twa800 - and affects of "dishs/radar (rotating  things that emit / "bounce" certain frequencies / energies in this case the ml-d influence that again i'm told only exists between my ears) try that as to EM and watch things flow with ease, anyone remember me stating as to Black Holes and extremely deep base Hz (still not discovered, a year after i posted it on WxU in 2010 i think a black Hole with 12 to 16 below 0.0Hz but none at 32 below... also no need to add more "stuff" the EM itself can generate the deep Hz just re-angle the vibes so EM pushes off as if itself but reality its physics toughing Galacsics, but then i could be 99.9% wrong...BTW
 careful if one tries to use H-plasma with this not a safe thing. 
Back to lurking, if i pass by (once ~2wks) very busy helping in getting dinner to elderly (i only do it for the gravy ;- P...volunteer)