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Little Change in 90L; Tropical Development Still Possible East of Nicaragua

By: Bob Henson 7:17 PM GMT on November 20, 2016

On Sunday, the tropical disturbance dubbed Invest 90L in the southwest Caribbean Sea continued its leisurely evolution toward possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days. Shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of 90L had decreased a bit since Saturday. The system remained without a low-level center of circulation, although there was plenty of spin in the envelope surrounding 90L. Conditions remain favorable for 90L to intensify if and when it develops a low-level center. Sea surface temperatures around 29.5°C (85°F) are roughly 1°C (1.8°F) above average, and a very moist atmosphere surrounds 90L, with mid-level relative humidities around 80%. Vertical shear is moderate, around 15 knots, and it may decrease a bit to 10 - 15 knots over the next several days. Air Force Hurricane Hunters were en route to investigate 90L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L east of Central America at 1817Z (1:17 pm EST) Sunday, November 20, 2016. A separate system is located to the northeast of 90L near Hispaniola.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of 90L from 1745Z (12:45 pm EST) Sunday, November 20, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Outlook for 90L
Computer models remain supportive of 90L intensifying over the upcoming week as it drifts around the southwest Caribbean east of Nicaragua. High pressure will be strengthening at upper levels over the northern Caribbean, and a weakening cool front moving into the region may help strengthen the low-level pressure gradient and the associated easterly winds rotating around 90L. All three of our most reliable operational models for tropical cyclone genesis--the European, GFS, and UKMET models--develop 90L into a tropical depression by Tuesday and intensify it to near hurricane strength by Thursday. All three models bring 90L into Nicaragua around the end of the week, with the UKMET distinctly slower than the Euro and GFS. Almost every member of the Euro and GFS ensemble runs from 00Z Sunday develops 90L into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Most of the ensemble members go on to strengthen 90L into Tropical Storm Otto, but only 1 of the 50 Euro ensemble members, and just 1 of the 20 GFS members, produce a hurricane. Both the Euro and GFS ensemble runs agree strongly that 90L will eventually track west toward Nicaragua, reaching the coast around the end of the week. In its 1:00 pm EST Sunday Tropical Weather Discussion, the National Hurricane Center gave 90L 50-50 odds of developing into at least a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon, with 70 percent odds through Friday afternoon.

Even if it ends up as no more than a tropical depression or tropical storm, 90L will still be capable of causing major trouble in Central America. The slow-moving system will be capable of bringing days of heavy rain to Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Torrential rains could spread into parts of Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala by late in the week assuming 90L moves west and strengthens as expected.

Heavy rains lead to national emergency in Dominican Republic
A separate area of showers and thunderstorms along a remnant front several hundred miles northeast of 90L has led to days of heavy rain across the Dominican Republic (see photos in embedded tweet at bottom). At least five people have been killed, with more than 20,000 people displaced and more than 4000 homes damaged, according to government officials. Parts of the Puerta Plata province on the north coast received more than 600 mm (23.62”) of rain from November 6 to 16, according to floodlist.com, which also noted that six provinces were under a state of national emergency.


Figure 3. Projected rainfall (in inches) from the GFS model run at 12Z (7:00 am EST) Sunday for the 180-hour period ending at 00Z Monday, November 28, 2016 (7:00 pm EST Sunday, November 27). Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 4. The first GOES-R satellite lifts off from Kennedy Space Center on Saturday night, November 19, 2016. Image credit: NASA/Kim Shifltett.

GOES-R is a go!
After a one-hour delay, a NASA rocket sent the first entry in NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) into space at 6:42 pm EST Saturday, November 19. Once in orbit after about two weeks, GOES-R will be renamed GOES-16. We’ll have more on Monday about the benefits GOES-R is expected to provide to tropical cyclone monitoring and prediction. We will also be covering 90L as it evolves, with posts throughout the holiday week as needed.

Bob Henson


Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you, Mr. Henson!

Euro suggests, that 90L, after coming Otto, could be the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to retain its name, while being situated in the Pacific.

Wow, a Saturday AND Sunday blog; thanks, Bob.
000
URNT12 KNHC 201953 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL902016
A. 20/19:15:20Z
B. 11 deg 13 min N
079 deg 37 min W
C. NA
D. 34 kt
E. 267 deg 6 nm
F. 359 deg 38 kt
G. 360 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 21 C / 463 m
J. 23 C / 459 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.2 / 3 nm
P. AF304 01HHA INVEST OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 267 / 6 NM 19:42:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;


Link
Quoting 3. nrtiwlnvragn:

000
URNT12 KNHC 201953 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL902016
A. 20/19:15:20Z
B. 11 deg 13 min N
079 deg 37 min W
C. NA
D. 34 kt
E. 267 deg 6 nm
F. 359 deg 38 kt
G. 360 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 21 C / 463 m
J. 23 C / 459 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.2 / 3 nm
P. AF304 01HHA INVEST OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 267 / 6 NM 19:42:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;


Link


thanks hey how come data aint coming through on Tropical tidbits or tropicalatlantic
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the
low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined low-level
circulation. However, satellite images indicate that the system
currently lacks sufficient organized thunderstorm activity to be
designated as a tropical cyclone. An increase in thunderstorm
activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression at
any time within the next day or two while the system moves very
slowly. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 4. wunderkidcayman:



thanks hey how come data aint coming through on Tropical tidbits or tropicalatlantic


That is the only data that has come through NHC recently, no HDOB data since 15:57
My location got snow from winter storm argos! That was unexpected because forecasts said for light rain and wind. The day time temp was also about 70.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the
low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

1. Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined low-level
circulation. However, satellite images indicate that the system
currently lacks sufficient organized thunderstorm activity to be
designated as a tropical cyclone. An increase in thunderstorm
activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression at
any time within the next day or two while the system moves very
slowly. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Pasch

Quoting 6. nrtiwlnvragn:



That is the only data that has come through NHC recently, no HDOB data since 15:57


I am very annoyed about that

90l...

Quoting two blog entries prior 34. elioe:
All that you said before that sentence, is very well known to me, thank you. And indeed, I started with this assumption originally. But you know what? Even if they may be professionals, they are not prophets. They can err, they are not infallible. The knowledge of the laws of physics is not their divine privilege.


Quoting two blogs ago 91. EmsiNasklug:


Same applies to you, elioe.



Indeed, it does. But stating it doesn't help at all. I may have done an error somewhere. What I've tried to do, is to have some member of WU to point to me, where I've made the error. Seems outrageous for me too, that I make a hypothesis, which, if being correct, would essentially throw all the previous climate modelling to a trash bin. The basics of that hypothesis are so simple, that the assumption, that professional climatologists would've missed such a phenomenon, is bizarre. But going against prevailing view of scientists is not alone sufficient for me to assume, that I'm wrong.

There are multiple commentators here, who are either meteorologists or meteorology students. As such, they should have knowledge of most of the laws and equations governing climate. As do I as an energy engineering student. Despite this relative prevalence of thermodynamic knowledge, I have not received a refutation, that would point out an error I've made in my calculations. From many comments it seems, that a common view on this forum is, that I have to be wrong due to my hypothesis going against prevailing view among scientists about the future of Arctic halocline. Some have hinted, that my hypothesis going against prevailing view is sufficient "heresy" for them to consider me as a climate change denialist.

I'll make a thorough blog post tomorrow, describing my hypothesis in detail. Providing some graphics also. If nobody is capable or willing to refute it after that, then it's time for me to make contact to climatologists.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson! Still wait and see on the rain forecast for overnight tonight and on Monday here in Soo Cal. I guess we are back to the new norm of a ULL pinching off and forming in the bottom of trofs and either going into Soo Cal or Northern Baja and pushing baby fronts through the area.......it's been a while for me here in San Diego County but was glad to see Ped get some decent rains earlier this month. Rain on please!
Quoting 2. oldnewmex:

Wow, a Saturday AND Sunday blog; thanks, Bob.


I don't know if it was just my computer, but yesterday's blog wasn't working every time I came by to check it out.
You can see the little fronts in central California trailing back into the Pacific Ocean. Just waiting for the newly formed ULL west of Soo Cal to push it through Soo Cal tonight and tomorrow. Forecasted amounts of rain are 0.25-0.75 for coast and valleys and 1.00-2.00 for the mountains . Deserts 0.10-0.20. Hope those numbers come in on the higher side and the storm will turn out decent.

Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:



I don't know if it was just my computer, but yesterday's blog wasn't working every time I came by to check it out.



No, it appeared to be down for several hours....it would not post for me.
If only the AOI South of DR was 91L and ready to eat 90L
An overview of the GOES-R satellite from the Washington Post:


Capital Weather Gang
U.S. launches next-generation weather satellite that will revolutionize forecasting
By Angela Fritz November 19 at 6:46 PM

Link
A few pre frontal showers cruising around Soo Cal mostly virga or sprinkles as the lower atmosphere is still dryand will not saturate until late tonight and into Monday morning.

Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:



I don't know if it was just my computer, but yesterday's blog wasn't working every time I came by to check it out.


I counted 4 hours with no response. Then the posted a new one.... Got sprinkles here at 5:39AM, but CoCoRaHS around the corner didn't report anything. My rain gauge is full of tools and inside the house.....
Quoting 7. EmsiNasklug:



Looks like at the moment the general conscientious it a strong TS-Hurricane

This would be a decent result...
Quoting 19. PedleyCA:



I counted 4 hours with no response. Then the posted a new one.... Got sprinkles here at 5:39AM, but CoCoRaHS around the corner didn't report anything. My rain gauge is full of tools and inside the house.....


Afternoon Ped! Had like 3 short showers overnight, a couple coming on the trip home this morning from Casino Pauma. We won $125 and spent half of that for dinner and drinks and rain showers on the way home at 3am.....A bonus!.......LOL
Quoting 17. MontanaZephyr:
An overview of the GOES-R satellite...
So the U.S. is playing catch-up with the Japanese and their Himawari 8 satellite that was launched a couple of years ago, and the recently launched Himawari 9 satellite?

It will be nice to see modern, hi-res images from the Atlantic region that compare with Himawari's Pacific region images, which are spectacular.

However, although it will become GOES-16 once it is in it's intended geostationary orbit, the checkout and testing schedule is approximately one year. Does that mean that GEOS-16 imaging will not be available for the 2017 hurricane season?


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
946 AM PST Sun Nov 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system off the Southern California coast will
move inland tonight and Monday bringing strong onshore flow with
much cooler weather, heavy rain and snow and strong winds at times.
The most widespread precipitation is expected with the cold frontal
passage late this evening through late tonight. Dry with generally
seasonal temperatures for Tuesday into next weekend with slow
warming for Tuesday into Thanksgiving...followed by slow cooling
into next weekend and another possible storm system around next
Sunday.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...

Light radar returns have been continuing this morning out ahead of
the major Pacific trough...but most locations remain dry with the
dry low level atmosphere in place.

The major storm system is poised off the Central Coast this morning.
Trough is becoming negatively tilted as expected and that will help
to kick the front in with some authority tonight. Overall the system
is a bit slower and now expected most of the event to occur well
after dark through daybreak Monday. The Monday morning rush hour is
likely to be a dicey one for most metro areas. All of the headlines
remain in place. No significant changes this morning to the
forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Water vapor imagery shows the center of a low pressure system off
the Southern California coast near 33N/128W. It will continue to
move eastward...moving through Southern California tonight into
Monday. Prior to the cold frontal passage tonight...this low
pressure system will partially tap a plume of subtropical moisture
extending northward into northern Baja. Scattered mostly light
showers have developed across portions of Southern California in
the difluent area ahead of the trough of low pressure. A few
showers developed early Saturday evening with coverage having
increased somewhat since 4 AM. The moisture is centered in the mid
levels with the 12Z NKX sounding show a nearly saturated layer
from 700 to 500 mb with a dry subcloud layer. There have been a
few light measurable rainfall amounts overnight...mostly in the
mountains. But there have also been some light amounts in the past
couple of hours at lower elevations...mostly trace to 0.01 inch
amounts, While a number of models are showing this prefrontal
shower activity...none have been very good with the details. In
any event...amounts are expected to light into early this evening.

The most widespread period of showers is expected with the cold
frontal band. It is expected to reach areas just east of Los
Angeles County during the late evening and San Diego County around
midnight. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms with this
cold frontal band. Most of the precipitation with the front
should be over by sunrise Monday. However showers will linger into
Monday with greatest coverage and amounts in the mountains. Some
island band showers may continue in portions of San Diego County
into Monday evening...ending Monday night.
Quoting 11. elioe:


Elioe, I'm not the one to argue with you on the hard facts, I'm talking soft skills. You come across as a bright young would-be blockbuster who wants to jump before getting to the line. Producing relevant scientific work is normally learned when writing a thesis, because only after a few years of academia will you have the experience and personality to criticise and rectify your own ideas (it's really difficult). Not getting opposition doesn't mean there is none. It might just be considered futile to write it up.
... I have not received a refutation that would point out an error I've made in my calculations.
That's exactly the point: There was one, but you're probably too enthusiastic to take it in - quote:
You are thinking far to linear, the lower atmosphere is a nonlinear dynamical system. Changes in such a system are also mostly nonlinear, because these changes are not dependent on one or two factors, but a multitude of factors, with different scales of influences. More and more energy is available in the Cryosphere and it isn't one factor forcing these changes, it is a very delicate ballet of factors with positive and negative feedback cycles which are driving these changes. A factor doesn't have to be huge to influence dynamical behavior in a nonlinear dynamical system, causality is different in such a system. Small changes can have huge implication in such a system.
There's more to say, but we might get banned for public one-on-one mentoring ;)
Quoting 23. Xulonn:

So the U.S. is playing catch-up with the Japanese and their Himawari 8 satellite that was launched a couple of years ago, and the recently launched Himawari 9 satellite?

It will be nice to see modern, hi-res images from the Atlantic region that compare with Himawari's Pacific region images, which are spectacular.

However, although it will become GOES-16 once it is in it's intended geostationary orbit, the checkout and testing schedule is approximately one year. Does that mean that GEOS-16 imaging will not be available for the 2017 hurricane season?


If the spacecraft clears its tests and the November launch is successful, GOES-R will be transmitting the best satellite data NOAA has ever had by late 2017. From the link in #17 So, maybe part of it.
Quoting 11. elioe:

(...)

I'm wondering how extensive a literature search you've done in developing your hypothesis. I did a little searching and quickly came to the conclusion that this is an enormously complex topic - see Freshwater and its role in the Arctic Marine System: Sources, disposition, storage, export, and physical and biogeochemical consequences in the Arctic and global oceans. If your hypothesis is detailed enough to address the complexities of Arctic Ocean circulation discussed in this review article, I'm sure it will generate great interest in the field.

Quoting 25. EmsiNasklug:



Well, that wasn't a refutation. That was a rather vague and general response to one comment of mine. In no way did that show, how the nonlinear nature of atmosphere would make it impossible for slower-moving, more amplified jet stream meanders to cause cold air to come from Siberia to North Pole, causing colder-than-average temperatures at times... were it not for excess heat coming from the ocean.

And I have already written one thesis. It was hard work indeed. In this case of my hypothesis, I'm not even trying to adhere to the strict standards of thesis writing. After all, this is a pastime hobby for me. And I'm lazy :)
Quoting 88. CaribBoy:



Not just in one year.


How many years, then? And what was the actual rainfall deficit in your area during that time?
Quoting 27. kestrel68:



Link said 403 Forbidden, but I found a working one. Thanks! I have done a sporadic and unsystematic search of literature. Every link like this is appreciated.
Looks like 90L is about ready to make the leap into Tropical Depression
Quoting 31. Icybubba:

Looks like 90L is about ready to make the leap into Tropical Depression


It does. Thunderstorms get a bit more concentrated and they'll upgrade.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure area over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea have
become a little better organized during the past couple of hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Monday while
the low remains nearly stationary. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brown
Quoting 31. Icybubba:
Looks like 90L is about ready to make the leap into Tropical Depression
Indeed - the chances are up to 80-90%...

---------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure area over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea have
become a little better organized during the past couple of hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Monday while
the low remains nearly stationary
. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brown
Quoting 1. elioe:

Thank you, Mr. Henson!

Euro suggests, that 90L, after coming Otto, could be the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to retain its name, while being situated in the Pacific.



Oh i thought that they renamed systems in the epac when they crossed over
I'm here in bastimentos panama. Just got in today for thanksgiving holiday. Winds are up, surf is up, looks like future Otto is going to ruin my vacation. I am staying tune to the blog (as always) for any future updates and developments. Alot of people here don't pay attention to tropical storm postings cause it rarely happens. I ask the blog to stay on topic and please post as much about 90L as possible. Thank you, Heck out.
Quoting 35. Weatherfan1013:


Oh i thought that they renamed systems in the epac when they crossed over

Noaa FAQ TC Subject: B5) What happens to the name of a tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa? : (...) if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.
Quoting 35. Weatherfan1013:


Oh i thought that they renamed systems in the epac when they crossed over


It would only get a different name if Otto's surface circulation dissipated before crossing into the east Pacific. Which honestly is probably more likely to happen than it somehow surviving Central America intact.
Quoting 35. Weatherfan1013:


Oh i thought that they renamed systems in the epac when they crossed over
Not anymore, they retain there names if there circulation can survive the trek.


I think we will have TD 16 shortly...

AL, 90, 2016112006, , BEST, 0, 108N, 804W, 25, 1006, LO
AL, 90, 2016112012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 800W, 25, 1006, LO
AL, 90, 2016112018, , BEST, 0, 112N, 797W, 30, 1003, LO
AL, 90, 2016112100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 795W, 30, 1003, LO
Quoting 30. elioe:



Link said 403 Forbidden, but I found a working one. Thanks! I have done a sporadic and unsystematic search of literature. Every link like this is appreciated.

I hope you will follow through on investigating your ideas. Nothing wrong with exploring a path "outside the box."* Thinking outside the box can lead to necessary breakthrough. I look forward to reading your blog.

(*Meaning, in case you are not familiar with the English phrase, "thinking outside the box" is thought that goes elsewhere rather than with the known and accepted knowledge.)
Quoting 39. allancalderini:

Not anymore, they retain there names if there circulation can survive the trek.


If he doesn't break on through to the other side, the Hurrigods should at least rename it with a palindrome...
Quoting 43. LoveReignoerMe:



If he doesn't break on through to the other side, the Hurrigods should at least rename it with a palindrome...


Ligriv

Hmm. Nope. :)
Quoting 42. Barefootontherocks:


I hope you will follow through on investigating your ideas. Nothing wrong with exploring a path "outside the box."* Thinking outside the box can lead to necessary breakthrough. I look forward to reading your blog.

(*Meaning, in case you are not familiar with the English phrase, "thinking outside the box" is thought that goes elsewhere rather than with the known and accepted knowledge.)


He has the right idea. Skepticism actually empowers science. We just need to know when to apply it and when to not.
Quoting 41. GeoffreyWPB:
The loop on the map over the Caribbean entrance to the Panama Canal (80°W) would be unprecedented - but it is probably unlikely - a real long-shot.

I live about 300 miles to the West of the Canal - at 80°26' longitude. Whether it loops or not, this system will likely fill would Lake Gatun and saturate its watershed for the coming dry season. Water from Lake Gatun is what makes the Panama Canal possible. Water from Gatun flows down via the locks to both the Pacific Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea on the Atlantic side.

Invest 90L has definitely been affecting our weather in Western Panama - normally, we would be transitioning to our 5-month warm, dry, and windy season. Instead, it has been overcast, cool, damp and rainy for the past five days, with temps here at 3,700' elevation never getting out of the 60's. We've not had any really heavy rain at my location so far. At my house just south of the center of the town of Boquete, we have had about 8" total over the past 5 days. However, a friend's weather station on the north side of town recorded 8.5" in one day this past week - the heaviest one-day rainfall they have seen in the several years since they installed their station.

It is still possible that we could get some really heavy precip here in Panama in the next few days, but Nicaragua will probably get hit the hardest. Our mountains are still heavily forested, but I understand that Nicaragua has been pretty well deforested, which could lead to serious rapid runoff problems and landslides. I wish them the best, because this storm is expected to develop, strengthen, and then make landfall in Nicaragua later this week.
Quoting 41. GeoffreyWPB:



Thanks Geoff, I get all of my daily forecast from this site, and am always watching the blog for any tropical development. Maybe my s daughter can show me how to upload photos. Thanks again for staying on topic!
Most storms that form in the area of 90L this time of year usually slowly drift north, then move ENE/NE
Quoting 48. stormpetrol:

Most storms that form in the area of 90L this time of year usually slowly drift north, then move ENE/NE


It can go either way. The jet stream meanders more often this time of year, typically throwing a tropical cyclone in one direction for a very long time.
Quoting 48. stormpetrol:

Most storms that form in the area of 90L this time of year usually slowly drift north, then move ENE/NE


yep and this one may very well do exactly that
I guess we don't have a depression yet
Well. The oil pipeline is going through. Advocates for climate change lose another battle. If you want to watch the peaceful unarmed protesters getting nailed with water cannons and tear gas its happening live:
https://www.facebook.com/kevin.happychappy/videos /1806825289589975/
Looks like it might make it to Soo Cal..........cmon BABY!

Quoting 47. bahamastrptx:


Thanks Geoff, I get all of my daily forecast from this site, and am always watching the blog for any tropical development. Maybe my s daughter can show me how to upload photos. Thanks again for staying on topic!


LBAR is the outlier, has it going towards Florida.
Cold Front becoming enhanced on the southern end after becoming negative tilt and will come through Soo Cal tonight/overnight hopefully with enhanced rainfall totals! :)

Quoting 55. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Cold Front becoming enhanced on the southern end after becoming negative tilt and will come through Soo Cal tonight/overnight hopefully with enhanced rainfall totals! :)



Should be good for 3/4" for both of us...
Quoting 55. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Cold Front becoming enhanced on the southern end after becoming negative tilt and will come through Soo Cal tonight/overnight hopefully with enhanced rainfall totals! :)




Given the forecast shear profiles in the area - about 60 kt of 500 mb flow last I checked - I wouldn't even rule out a brief severe storm.
Invest 90L should be upgraded to a tropical depression overnight assuming convection persists or even continues to expand. Moderate wind shear and some dry air entrainment should limit the amount of intensification that takes place through Wednesday morning or so; thereafter, the environment should favor quick development. I expect Otto will be at least a Category 1 hurricane at landall in southern Nicaragua (maybe even Costa Rica if modelling keeps shifting south; no hurricane in recorded history has made landfall in Costa Rica), perhaps stronger.

Quoting 58. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Looks significantly better from when I last saw it! Starting to get that look just needs a little more convection.
´Here comes Otto
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase and become better organized over the past
several hours, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm appears
to be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will likely be issued on this disturbance later this morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
&&
Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase and become better organized over the past
several hours, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm appears
to be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will likely be issued on this disturbance later this morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Boom, there ya go. :)
I'll say it now
hello TS Otto lol yay about time

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase and become better organized over the past
several hours, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm appears
to be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will likely be issued on this disturbance later this morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 62. wunderkidcayman:

I'll say it now
hello TS Otto lol yay about time

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase and become better organized over the past
several hours, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm appears
to be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will likely be issued on this disturbance later this morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Stewart


If you want a storm......Stewart is the guy!
Welp Otto appears to be a couple of hours away or so, awesome for us because we get another named tropical system to track, bad for those in central America, let us not forget that
Quoting 56. PedleyCA:


Should be good for 3/4" for both of us...


Here's hoping!
Quoting 63. HurricaneHunterJoe:



If you want a storm......Stewart is the guy!


I like Stewart and Franklin more than the rest of them. Pasch and Avila are like at the bottom of the barrel imo.
Quoting 63. HurricaneHunterJoe:



If you want a storm......Stewart is the guy!


true that Stewart is ok I think Franklin is the better guy
Keep coming east!

Quoting 64. Icybubba:

Welp Otto appears to be a couple of hours away or so, awesome for us because we get another named tropical system to track, bad for those in central America, let us not forget that


that's if central America actually gets its

with slow and generally erratic movement it can go anywhere

anyway looking at Satellite estimated centre with model overlays 90L PRE TD/TS is already located N and E of a good bit of the models plots so I will say lets see what happens
ULL still appears closed as it is heading east pushing a front into Soo Cal. ULL will follow front into extreme Soo Cal. Both show well on water vapor loop. Hope it all holds together and we get some welcome rain.

Recon should have been wheels up by now I do believe
21/0630Z take off time
21/0730Z present time
Bit of dry air and some moderate southerly shear. Center still exposed to the south of the somewhat asymmetric convection.
90L Nice strong circulation. Appeared a feeder band looking formation on the SE side feeding into system....maybe not. Appears to be winding up.

90L not in the best of environments for sure.

Water vapor imagery shows that the broad cyclonic flow to the north is gradually backing anticyclonically, signifying the slow development of an upper-level ridge. As this happens, the shear should decrease and become more diffluent, which should enable the system to strengthen more readily in about a day or so. The process itself could take awhile, given the time of year and the propensity for troughs to frequently traverse the western Atlantic.

4:00 AM EST Mon Nov 21
Location: 11.5°N 79.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
On the outside chance that 16L becomes a major hurricane, it'll be the first time since 2008 that we've seen two or more major hurricanes roam the Caribbean. The last two major hurricanes to occur in a season there were Gustav and Paloma in 2008.
Quoting 30. elioe:


Link said 403 Forbidden, but I found a working one. Thanks! I have done a sporadic and unsystematic search of literature. Every link like this is appreciated.

Google Scholar helps you find relevant work across the world of scholarly research.

Wow! I saw that area of showers lingering but didn't expect that much rain!

Good morning all...,, I see cooler air is expected over the central and NE CONUS....
Good Morning

TD 16 is not doing bad under current wx conditions... will definitely be interesting to see if it develops into a hurricane and how strong.
only 16 again
Good morning

It's 81, feeling like 88, overcast with 100 per cent chance of more rain this afternoon, forecasting another half inch or so.

The flash flood warning on Saturday came to fruition and wiped out the Food Fair at the university. They were up to water between their ankles and knees. Needless to say, Sunday's events were cancelled.

I took a look at the statistics for this month and see that as of this morning we've had just over six.5 inches of rain, just over double this month's average. This island is GREEN! Mind you, the clouds of mosquitoes are driving me insane. At the local grocery store, a can of "Eau de Off" was 10.95 last night. I refuse to pay that kind of money so will wait to get to the other side of the island where it will be closer to 7.00.

Have a great day, folks!

Lindy
Quoting 11. elioe:





Indeed, it does. But stating it doesn't help at all. I may have done an error somewhere. What I've tried to do, is to have some member of WU to point to me, where I've made the error. Seems outrageous for me too, that I make a hypothesis, which, if being correct, would essentially throw all the previous climate modelling to a trash bin. The basics of that hypothesis are so simple, that the assumption, that professional climatologists would've missed such a phenomenon, is bizarre. But going against prevailing view of scientists is not alone sufficient for me to assume, that I'm wrong.

There are multiple commentators here, who are either meteorologists or meteorology students. As such, they should have knowledge of most of the laws and equations governing climate. As do I as an energy engineering student. Despite this relative prevalence of thermodynamic knowledge, I have not received a refutation, that would point out an error I've made in my calculations. From many comments it seems, that a common view on this forum is, that I have to be wrong due to my hypothesis going against prevailing view among scientists about the future of Arctic halocline. Some have hinted, that my hypothesis going against prevailing view is sufficient "heresy" for them to consider me as a climate change denialist.

I'll make a thorough blog post tomorrow, describing my hypothesis in detail. Providing some graphics also. If nobody is capable or willing to refute it after that, then it's time for me to make contact to climatologists.

Mankind’s Greatest Invention. Do you know what it is??

It’s the most important thing that anyone should understand about science. It’s in nearly every science text book from grade school to high school (usually at the front but often skipped or downplayed). It made the computer you are reading this on possible and in fact it made all of modern technology possible!

No, it’s not science…It’s SCIENTIFIC METHOD.

Continue reading >>

Good Morning Friends. 35 this morning in Tallahassee at 6:00 am. Now time to start my annual AGW impact observations for North Florida between now and March 31st. How many actual freezing or below days we have in the period (the number of days has been dropping) and how many record warm days we have on any given day during any given month during this same period (that number has been increasing). And finally, how early the Azeleas start to bloom in the year (earlier and earlier every year for the past 15)...............................
not many comparisons in the past for tropical depression 16. unusual location to be developing. what do you think? as 16 makes landfall lets hope it picks up speed.
Good morning everyone... we received a surprise 15" of snow in roughly 4 hours last night after were situated in the "Georgian Bay" connection of lake snows in Bloomfield, NY. No firm idea how much more snow we received since then since it has blown everywhere and the driveway is missing. At least another 4 inches. East Bloomfield, NY.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-sta tion/dashboard?ID=KNYEASTB2#history
As to TD 16 (which I have not looked at since Friday afternoon) it is interesting how much further to the East from CA that the COC got a grove on over the weekend; the lower-level vort max was closer to the coast of Panama on Friday but it has consolidated nicely further away from the coast.......................However, it is still under the influence of the Western Atlantic low (off of the Carolinas now) and still dealing with the shear and dry air associated with the front pushing down from the Gulf...........It still does not have much breathing room.








Nice looking storm swirling into shape!

The following is a bit off topic but I think some folks will find this new form of propulsion system interesting:


It's official: NASA's peer-reviewed EM Drive paper has finally been published

It works.
FIONA MACDONALD
19 NOV 2016
Facebook Icon
Twitter Icon

After months of speculation and leaked documents, NASA's long-awaited EM Drive paper has finally been peer-reviewed and published. And it shows that the 'impossible' propulsion system really does appear to work.

Link

Quoting 85. islander101010:

not many comparisons in the past for tropical depression 16. unusual location to be developing. what do you think? as 16 makes landfall lets hope it picks up speed.
It would be a flooding disaster for parts of CA if it does not pick up speed and just keeps inching down at a snail's pace:


And finally, really sorry that I was not able to drive over to see the Goes launch; finally got down to the chainsaw phase of clearing two trees that fell near the house (Hermine) after clearing and discarding branches and vines little by little the past several weekends. After four hours of cutting tree trunks, wielding an axe to cut some firewood, and moving the trunk pieces, I was just too sore and wore out to drive to the coast...........My right elbow is killing me this morning.
Yesterday at 27° and today (this morning) at 23° F. are the coldest days of the season so far.


First window frost this year.
Quoting 85. islander101010:

not many comparisons in the past for tropical depression 16. unusual location to be developing. what do you think? as 16 makes landfall lets hope it picks up speed.


Major Hurricane Joan - Oct. 22 1988 - hit Bluefields, Nicaragua.

It was a T.S. as it crossed the southern Windward Islands, and travelled a generally westward path.

Joan passed less than 200 miles north of Panama, as it travelled westward.

It strengthened rapidly to a major hurricane in the same area as T.D. #16.


The ginkgo golden carpet is a little green this year. All the leaves fall in one day, or overnight, after the hard frost.
Looking closely at the topography map and the forecast track for 16L I would say it has a fair chance of making it into the East Pac.

Link
Quoting 28. elioe:

Quote: "You are thinking far to linear, the lower atmosphere is a nonlinear dynamical system."

Well, that wasn't a refutation. That was a rather vague and general response to one comment of mine.

That response is by no means vague, it's just not factual but methodological: It says that you're working with a hammer and chisel where you'd need a Dremel. That's actually pretty devastating, given that I see this approach in your geo-engineering blog as well.
Thinking outside the box might mean to think inside someone else's box, and it may be frowned upon by the specialists who know how to handle a Dremel, for reasons well worth considering.
Don't take it personally Otto. After the last couple weeks of political divide, another "form of depression" was bound to rear it's head on this blog.

This message may or may not be approved by KOTG. :-}
Quoting 89. MontanaZephyr:

Nice looking storm swirling into shape!

The following is a bit off topic but I think some folks will find this new form of propulsion system interesting:


It's official: NASA's peer-reviewed EM Drive paper has finally been published

It works.
FIONA MACDONALD
19 NOV 2016
Facebook Icon
Twitter Icon

After months of speculation and leaked documents, NASA's long-awaited EM Drive paper has finally been peer-reviewed and published. And it shows that the 'impossible' propulsion system really does appear to work.

Link


Physics 1 classes of the future,

"For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction and momentum is always conserved, unless you're NASA. Those guys are jerks."
the seed for 16 developed right where its currently located. did not Joan come from a cape verde spin?
This has Beta of 2005 written all over it.

102. elioe
Quoting 97. EmsiNasklug:


That response is by no means vague, it's just not factual but methodological: It says that you're working with a hammer and chisel where you'd need a Dremel. That's actually pretty devastating, given that I see this approach in your geo-engineering blog as well.
Thinking outside the box might mean to think inside someone else's box, and it may be frowned upon by the specialists who know how to handle a Dremel, for reasons well worth considering.



Let me see, if I understood this correctly: since there are people, that have access to supercomputers, and three-dimensional global climate models in them, people who have only access to a laptop, should shut up and blindly expect, that these "specialists" got it right, even while those global models have failed to predict developments so far?
Were stuck
Quoting 100. islander101010:

the seed for 16 developed right where its currently located. did not Joan come from a cape verde spin?


Joan did originate in the MDR in the central ATL. It moved westward along the S American coast ..

Was an interesting hurricane to track because it rapidly intensified into a CAT4 in the extreme SW Caribbean Sea, late in the season. Oct 22, 1988.

Interestingly in NOV 1988, Tropical Storm Keith developed in the NW Caribbean, hit the NE Yucatan, and made final landfall near Tampa Bay area.

Joan is one of the few recorded major hurricanes to hit Bluefields, Nicaragua in modern times.
good morning all on this cold windy Monday -2c wind chills of -12 c we got a coating of snow maybe 3 cm with another 2 to 4 cm during the day today to come winds still gusting at times 60 70 kmh from nw high today of 1c with chills of -7 -9

everything should settle down after midnight and rebound slightly upward for the rest of the week after that
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
9:00 AM EST Monday 21 November 2016
Temperature:
28.9°F
Dew point:
14.7°F
Humidity:
55%
Wind:
WNW 30 gust 42 mph
Wind Chill:
14
Visibility:
15 miles
This is the first "different from normal" weather pattern I've seen here in my nearly five years since retiring to Panama. We very seldom get rain at night. Like several days recently, light rain associated with 90L/TD-16 still falling here in Boquete, Panama. About .88" since midnight giving us 10.60" for November to date. (Avg. here is about 12" total for November.)

This is my first chance prognosticate about possible unusual weather here, so here is what I think will happen...

Although sunny mornings are common here all year, I expect more persistent light to moderate rain for the next several days as TD16 develops and finally starts to move west towards southern Nicaragua an about two days.

Panama is a very narrow E-W country shaped like an "S" laying on its side, so the Caribbean is to our north, and the Pacific Ocean lies to the south. The current broad circulation of this tropical system is pulling Pacific moisture up the mountains from the south. The precip rate from these "fringe" rains may vary, but we are not likely to be affected by the heavy precip that may develop in the NW quadrant of this system and hit Nicaragua in a few days. If we get Hurricane Otto (Likely now), and it makes landfall in southern Nicaragua, that region is the likeliest to get torrential rains and suffer flooding and landslides due to deforestation.

As strange as it may seem, this week at my 3,700 ' elevation home in a tropical rainforest at 8.5° north latitude, I am experiencing weather very much like I experienced in the place I moved from in 2012 - 38.4° N latitude near the Sonoma County coast in Northern California. It's been cool (mid-60'sF), overcast, and drizzly/rainy for days - just like northern California during many fall or spring wet weather patterns.
Quoting 106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

good morning all on this cold windy Monday -2c wind chills of -12 c we got a coating of snow maybe 3 cm with another 2 to 4 cm during the day today to come winds still gusting at times 60 70 kmh from nw high today of 1c with chills of -7 -9

everything should settle down after midnight and rebound slightly upward for the rest of the week after that


Very chilly and windy but so far no freeze with this outbreak here in DC (I did freeze last week). Friends in warmer locations still have surviving tomato plants outside though mine froze. Areawide freeze likely tonight or tomorrow night with diminishing winds. Dewpoints are low and my citrus outside shows some wilt, common in sunny cold conditions when root ball temperatures go below 5C. Exposed standing water in containers has ice from evaporative cooling.
Not worried about mosquitoes for the moment :-)

Potatoes went in too late (september because mites damaged the august planting) and I only got a few pounds of "new" potatoes below the frozen tops. I expect to get 30-50 pounds of such taters when I work the kinks out of fall culture (Late blight from contaminated seed pieces (one in 120) 2014 and yes indeedy this disease can devastate a planting in short order!, early freeze and poor seed 2015, broad mites 2016.. always something)


Slow warmup expected this week. College son coming home from OU over western MD mountains but snow looks like not a problem Wednesday and Monday next.
Quoting 101. 62901IL:

This has Beta of 2005 written all over it.




:/ it's over :( no rain no storm nothing
62901IL9:12 AM EST on November 21, 2016


If this is the path that it actually pulls off, and it is able to build more convection and rain, Nicaragua and Honduras are going to be in big trouble; I was in Honduras near the border with Nica (in the Capitol of Tegucigalpa) and back then thousands of people lived in shanty-towns and shacks in the mountains and hills............If this is still the case today, it's going to be mudslide city over in Central America and they usually do not evacuate people from those regions (and certainly not for a rare November tropical storm)............................


I could be wrong but isn't there supposed to be an update, they are never 10 minutes late
Virgin Islands must be happy. Looks like 2016 was a decent year for them with at least a normal rain season.

Not really better than 2015 here... no rain season, huge deficit during the wettest months :/ 2015 was the driest on record, I guess 2016 is really close :(

16 is suppose to travel right over where the new nica canal is being developed (not sure if they actually started) and lake nicaraqua. path of least resistance to the warm pacific.
Quoting 106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

good morning all on this cold windy Monday -2c wind chills of -12 c we got a coating of snow maybe 3 cm with another 2 to 4 cm during the day today to come winds still gusting at times 60 70 kmh from nw high today of 1c with chills of -7 -9

everything should settle down after midnight and rebound slightly upward for the rest of the week after that


nice vis sat shot of the cold nw air streaming down over the great lakes. super windy out there! got my ski goggles out for biking :)

Hoping that the dry air around TD 13 and particularly to the North will keep the storm from gaining a large rain-shield as it moves inland; thankfully, the E-Pac ITCZ is pretty bone dry so it will not have much more moisture to work with other than whatever it self sustains-creates from convection:


Quoting 110. CaribBoy:


:/ it's over :( no rain no storm nothing.
Wish I could send you some rain, CB!

Glad I retired to green, wet and lush Panama and not St. Barts. Then again, even if it were green and wet, I probably could not afford to live on St. Barts. Could I get a modest, but decent 2-bedroom rental house for $400/mo on your island?

Here's a photo of the Rio Caldera a couple of kilometers north of Boquete...
Lets hope that it is a small and tight hurricane as opposed to a larger one with tons of rain:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 211434
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming
better organized, with some banding features over the northern and
western portions of the circulation and small bursts of deep
convection near or over the estimated center. The current
intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
TAFB, pending an Air Force reconnaissance mission into the
cyclone this afternoon. There is moderate south-southeasterly shear
over the depression, and this should allow for only slow
strengthening over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, some
relaxation of the shear is forecast with an upper-level anticyclone
developing over the tropical cyclone, and the system is predicted to
become a hurricane before landfall. The official intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one, and is close to the latest SHIPS
model guidance.

Satellite-derived center fixes indicate little motion since late
yesterday. The depression is currently located near a col in the
mid-level flow, so steering currents are very weak at this time.
Global model guidance shows a high developing to the north of the
system in a few days, so a generally westward track is forecast.
The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
tracks, with the former model being faster and farther south and
the latter being slower and farther north. The new official
forecast is very similar to the previous NHC forecast track.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the system will survive
as a tropical cyclone while crossing Central America later in the
forecast period. The current thinking is that the interaction with
land and increasing shear will reduce the system to a remnant low by
the time it reaches the east Pacific.

Quoting 114. islander101010:
16 is suppose to travel right over where the new nica canal is being developed (not sure if they actually started) and lake nicaraqua. path of least resistance to the warm pacific.
Updated info on the proposed Nicaragua Canal - which is considered impractical by many experts...
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from the depression are expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across portions of
central and western Panama and southeastern Costa Rica through
Wednesday, with isolated totals upwards of 10 to 15 inches across
the higher terrain. These rains could result in life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Additional heavy rainfall may move
into portions of Costa Rica Wednesday night into Thursday as the
system approaches the coast.
Here is a pic of one of the shanty-towns in the mountains of Honduras outside the capitol:
deforestation is right.................I can count "two" remaining larger trees in this shot...................................

Image result for tegucigalpa shanty towns
												
Quoting 117. Xulonn:

Wish I could send you some rain, CB!

Glad I retired to green, wet and lush Panama and not St. Barts. Then again, even if it were green and wet, I probably could not afford to live on St. Barts. Could I get a modest, but decent 2-bedroom rental house for $400/mo on your island?

Here's a photo of the Rio Caldera a couple of kilometers north of Boquete...



Green and lush is a dream. I love tropical rainforests. But mountains are too low here to support yearly lush forests and rivers. During boring years like 2016, the green never lasts for long. But in fact people don't come to St Barths to see lush rainforests because they know they won't find that. The scenery is more like coastal S California : rocky and dry, and lot of people like it that way.

No, it's not possible to find rentals below 1500USD/month.
NHC calls this a "depression"?:
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
650 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

FLZ155-160-162-220300-
/O.EXT.KTBW.BH.S.0004.000000T0000Z-161122T0300Z/
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
650 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* RED TIDE HAZARDS...POSSIBLE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION IN SOME
COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RED TIDE FORECAST INFORMATION VISIT
HTTP://TIDESANDCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV/HAB (ALL LOWER CASE).

* FLORIDA RED TIDE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION POTENTIAL IMPACTS...
SYMPTOMS MAY INCLUDE COUGHING...SNEEZING...AND TEARING EYES.
PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS SUCH AS ASTHMA...
EMPHYSEMA...AND OTHER PULMONARY DISEASES...MAY BE MORE
SENSITIVE. IRRITATION MAY VARY LOCALLY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IF YOU EXPERIENCE UNCOMFORTABLE SYMPTOMS...CONSIDER GOING TO
AN UNAFFECTED BEACH NEARBY.

* FLORIDA RED TIDE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION TIMING/LOCATION...NOAA
FORECAST:

NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTY: BAY REGIONS...POSSIBLE MONDAY.
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN SARASOTA COUNTY: BAY REGIONS... POSSIBLE MONDAY.
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY: BAY REGIONS... POSSIBLE MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLORIDA RED TIDE OBSERVATIONS...YOU CAN FIND UNAFFECTED BEACHES
BY CHECKING REPORTS OF RECENT LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND DATA: MOTE
MARINE LABORATORY DAILY BEACH CONDITIONS
HTTP://WWW.MOTE.ORG/BEACHES AND THE FLORIDA FISH AND WILDLIFE
CONSERVATION COMMISSION (FWC) RED TIDE STATUS
HTTP://MYFWC.COM/REDTIDESTATUS.

FLORIDA RED TIDE HEALTH INFORMATION...CONSULT THE FLORIDA
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH: HTTP://WWW.FLORIDAHEALTH.GOV/ENVIRONMENTAL-
HEALTH/AQUATIC- TOXINS/RED-TIDE.HTM OR CALL THE POISON CONTROL
CENTER AT: 1 800 222 1222.

INCLUSION OF EXTERNAL LINKS DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ENDORSEMENT BY
THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (DOC)/(NOAA) OF THESE EXTERNAL WEB
SITES OR THE INFORMATION... PRODUCTS... OR SERVICES CONTAINED
THEREIN.

FLORIDA RED TIDE INFORMATION SOURCES...RED TIDE FORECASTS ARE
PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE WITH DATA PROVIDED BY THE
FWC AND MOTE MARINE LABORATORY.

&&

$$
UK Met Office on Twitter: "Much of south-western Europe will have a period of very unsettled weather this week. Parts of southern France could have 300-400mm of rain". A quick recap from Deutsche Welle :
Storms lash western France, southern England (link).

Very powerful anticyclone over E Europe : Link. The second low (currently around 980 hPa) is entering the Channel from the near Atlantic. A mesoscale discussion has just been issued by estofex (link) for Central and NE France amidst a pretty dynamic environment, strong convective wind gusts likely, tornado risk marginal but still a possibility today/tonight. We've had windy, rainy weather in pretty much the whole of W Europe the last two days, including at my place. Southern Alps are going to get drenched during the next five days ("cevenol" flash floods possible in a relatively small area in S France). * IR Satellite - current loop.
Severe risk for Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2016
Image is a link to the 0100 cst Day 2 convective outlook from SPC


Risk area may move a little W as it often does from day 2 to day 1. Perhaps a little ways N also. Just a guess. (Or a wishcast, lpl)
Quoting 119. Xulonn:

Updated info on the proposed Nicaragua Canal - which is considered impractical by many experts...

Interesting read, articulating many reasons why the canal should not, and probably will not, be built. Multi-national corruption, with the prospect of a land grab, can be a powerful force in the short term, however. We can only hope this project tanks before much land is expropriated.
Dry air causing the eye looking spot?
Quoting 128. Gearsts:

Dry air causing the eye looking spot?


It's not dry air.
With this structure, there's no chance of dry air.
And water vapor shows no dry air entrainment and an actual eye, and it is completely surrounded by low shear, high SST's and a moist environment:
Good afternoon

CaribBoy, I wish you could get some of this. Interesting pics on the cam at the moment. I've never seen the clouds as low as they are at the moment. In both cams you can see what I'm talking about. In the first cam, the top of the hill behind the cruise ship doesn't exist. Under flash flood warnings again this afternoon.

Link

Lindy
Quoting 102. elioe:



Let me see, if I understood this correctly: since there are people, that have access to supercomputers, and three-dimensional global climate models in them, people who have only access to a laptop, should shut up and blindly expect, that these "specialists" got it right, even while those global models have failed to predict developments so far?

Sorry but you don't. It's not about doing the maths, it's about connecting the right dots, i.e. creative brainwork within a set frame of subject-specific guidelines.
Specialists are not specially clever, but they know about the special nooks and crannies that influence their field of experience. External input of good ideas will normally be welcome, but should (edit) reflect the complexity of the issue to be worth considering.
Quoting 113. CaribBoy:

Virgin Islands must be happy. Looks like 2016 was a decent year for them with at least a normal rain season.

Not really better than 2015 here... no rain season, huge deficit during the wettest months :/ 2015 was the driest on record, I guess 2016 is really close :(


Yea its been crazy lately especially in st.thomas we are well over our rainfall rates for the month and climbing..And more rain to come
Quoting 132. rockcity340:

Yea its been crazy lately especially in st.thomas we are well over our rainfall rates for the month and climbing..And more rain to come


You are sooooo Lucky !
What's up with recon?

3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 21/1130Z WAS CANCELED AND MISSION
FOR 21/2000Z ABORTED.
Respectfully disagree with the comment below; dry air is being drawn into the circulation of TD13 very close to COC; it does look like an eye due South of the COC but it is a dry slot wrapping around; the core appears to be hanging on to dear life at the moment:



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 102. elioe:



Let me see, if I understood this correctly: since there are people, that have access to supercomputers, and three-dimensional global climate models in them, people who have only access to a laptop, should shut up and blindly expect, that these "specialists" got it right, even while those global models have failed to predict developments so far?


Citation, please.
Quoting 83. Xandra:


Mankind’s Greatest Invention. Do you know what it is??

It’s the most important thing that anyone should understand about science. It’s in nearly every science text book from grade school to high school (usually at the front but often skipped or downplayed). It made the computer you are reading this on possible and in fact it made all of modern technology possible!

No, it’s not science…It’s SCIENTIFIC METHOD.

Continue reading >>



Great link to the brightest theoretial physicist of the 20th century. Good think at least some of Feynman's lectures were recorded on TV tape.
Quoting 102. elioe:



Let me see, if I understood this correctly: since there are people, that have access to supercomputers, and three-dimensional global climate models in them, people who have only access to a laptop, should shut up and blindly expect, that these "specialists" got it right, even while those global models have failed to predict developments so far?

Yes.