WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

90L Near Nicaragua Closer to Tropical Depression Status; GOES-R Going Up

By: Jeff Masters 8:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2016

An area of disturbed weather in the extreme southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua (Invest 90L) became much more organized on Saturday morning and afternoon, and is likely to develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Satellite loops on Saturday afternoon showed a considerable increase in 90L’s heavy thunderstorm activity, and the storm had plenty of spin—though no low-level circulation center was present. The disturbance had plenty of moisture to work with (about 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere), and water vapor satellite imagery showed no large-scale areas of dry air that 90L might have to contend with. Wind shear was marginally favorable for development, about 15 - 20 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29.5°C (85°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 90L taken late Saturday morning, November 19, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Track forecast: 90L a heavy rain threat to Central America
Steering currents are weak in the region, and 90L will move erratically over the next five days. Most of the models predict a slow westward motion by Wednesday and Thursday, which would bring 90L ashore over Nicaragua late in the week. Heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua are a major concern from 90L, as even a weak tropical depression or tropical storm meandering in this area for multiple days could cause significant flooding and landslides.

Our three reliable models for prediction of tropical storm genesis—the European, GFS and UKMET models—continued to forecast in their 12Z Saturday operational runs that 90L would develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. At least 65% of the 70 forecasts from the 0Z Saturday European and GFS model ensembles predicted that 90L would eventually become Tropical Storm Otto. However, less than 10% of these forecasts showed 90L becoming a hurricane. In their 1 pm EST Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 70%, respectively. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Sunday afternoon.

GOES-R launch is today!
The new GOES-R satellite is scheduled to be launched at 5:42 pm EST Saturday. Sky and Telescope has details on how to watch the launch in person or online. I’m super excited to see this bird go up!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank for the blog!
Thought WU would miss it......
nasa tv live goes r launch

Link
Does this blog have a winter sniw contest as well?
The GOES-R launch is set for 6:42pmEST, the end of today's launch window. Cross your fingers!
A successful launch of GOES-R. This revolutionary satellite will make hurricane tracking much more spectacular! More info: Link
90L...

Well, it is about time... thanks for the updates Dr. Masters....
Quoting 7. GeoffreyWPB:

90L...



New convective burst developing around the center.
all looks good up travel window is good and we get it too position for functioning orbit

goodluck Goes R

serve us well
Honduras is receiving a lot of rain from this system. In La Ceiba we had rain all this week and its suppose to continue the next. For now is beneficial but if it continues to rain at that maginitude flooding might be a concern.
I bet this ends up stronger than the models are forecasting, too. I'm not that concerned that most of the ensemble guidance fails to show this system becoming a hurricane. Global models are not hurricane intensity prediction models, even if they sometimes do predict intense hurricanes well. To sum it up, anticipate anything from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane, imo.
Quoting 9. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


New convective burst developing around the center.


More tightly-wound, too. Getting "that look". Cyclone in 2-3 days or sooner. Bet.
As an aside, I've been taking some MetEd courses recently, because why the heck not? Meteorology is so vast a topic that it's good to brush up on things every now and then. I highly recommend it to anyone!
Aside from overwhelming model support, the difference between now and the last 5 days is that the low-level circulation is MUCH better-defined. That is allowing the convection to consolidate around the inner portion of the circulation as opposed to the outer portion of the circulation. Like, even the recent burst of convection, although small in areal extent, is way more tightly-wound near the center than any burst has been during the last 5 days. I bet it has an excellent dmax tonight.
Quoting 7. GeoffreyWPB:

90L...



Definitely more organized than yesterday and new convective burst developing. My prediction is TD by tomorrow night.
Our European windstorm does not disappoint, at 968 hPa so far (Nov20, 01z) according to meteo-ciel.fr.
* Saved radar until about 00z :

* Estofex Storm Forecast - issued Nov 19, 17z (archive)
Can't wait for 2018 for the output of info from the GOES-R (16) to start coming. I read it's going to take a year so for them to prepare the satellite to starting collecting info. CAN'T WAIT :)
Quoting 55. Neapolitan: Another graph to illustrate what's going on at the top of the world:

I was looking at that Arctic death spiral graph from the Pettit Climate Graphs, on the last thread . It starts out as a rather smooth linear circle from 79' steady contracting. Then about 2007 these dents appear in the spiral in Sept-Oct period. It's really a clear way to see things we know, in a new light.

The folks that follow this subject have their hair on fire. The folks who's world end at the end of their nose and toes, not so much.
I've been reading this stuff as long as any lay person, and if I hair it would be burning too. This dipole in the North is really scary. Just watch these new storms off the coast Europe tonight. Where are they headed ? Into the Arctic ?

One of the great laws of physics -
Heat seeks cold. Heat seeks a condenser. This why milk stays cold in your refrigerator. We run this backwards. in a small box. Clever ain't it? We don't make cold, we take away heat. Heat is this key.

Unfortunately, as our oceans heat up, they are not in a small box. And this law is not running backwards because we are clever. Which means, heat from last summer's ocean warming is seeking ice , to kill it.

And it means more and more of these ever more deep lows going places we never dreamed of at times we never though of.


My point -

Pair of Arctic Storms Sparked Severe Polar Warming, Sea Ice Melt for November 2016
Folks — we’re in a climate emergency. Tell everyone you know. — Eric Holthaus

There are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016… — Bob Henson at WeatherUnderground

Global warming doesn’t care about the election. — Dr Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS


Link
Quoting 22. 999Ai2016:




Notice that all that heat has chased cold off her perch , and she is surrounded by villians that would do her harm.
Regarding post 20. I am not completely informed on things. But have somewhat a familiarity with the prognostications.

What surprises me is it appears that no one predicted this to happen so quickly with such force in this manner.
It appears to me the most we can now say is all bets are off. Some of the projections are coming true seemingly, such as the climate factor cause of the English storms this past winter., But this and the gross aberration of the polar jet, no, I don't think so.

It seems what is happening is just beyond our imagination. The consequences of much less sea ice seems not to have been predictable. IN retrospect we can now say, yes, it makes sense. But what I wonder is how many more untoward consequences of AGW are lying it wait.

It seems like things could very easily get quite strange weather wise. One good point I guess is things will probably get so strange so quickly the national media will find it impossible to discount or ignore it.

It seems it is not now impossible, any thing vcould happen. If in the dead of winter we had a 10 degree temp in LA and a 80 degree day in NYC, what will they say? Will the media infer things like this have happened before even when we know in human recorded weather history they never have?.
Alaska could be ignored as few live there comparatively. But I feel safe to say this will translate to the lower 48 in time. And as things go probably way way soon.
Given what have we have seen, this idea of 'free speech" needs to be looked at . How many years of the same small group of the same small voices, saying the same small things, over and over
These people have a PHD from Trump University in physics .

Dr. Rood got ride of them . I learn so much more .
Is anyone on here a meteorologist or a graduate of a meteorological program willing to help a high school student on their project??
Quoting 17. GeoffreyWPB:




That turn to the west is irritating.
Poor Donald. Reality has already started to intrude upon his ideological framed world view. China famously told him just this week basically to bugger off. Or get real. Prior peoples and nations would not bother to respond. Now they will and do.
One good point in my view is at least now we will not be going to war with Russia. Seems Hillary was all for that thing.
So some good with the mostly bad bad bad.
Regarding post 32, do we all know it?

To my opinion the current events in and surrounding the arctic are as if we had just discovered the moon is itself actually green cheese. Impossible things are happening weather wise.

But I just came from seeing a title to a article whose heading said basically, not to worry about all this stuff in the arctic happening weather wise. I honestly could not bring myself to read it but it said somehting to that effect in the title. And it was a lead article in the MSNBC news site.

To add, I bothered to check just now and it was on the google news site not MSNBC. Here is the title it is from the Business Insider publication,
"We have less ice in the world right now than any November on record but don't panic yet
Rafi Letzter
Nov. 18, 2016, 2:26 PM


Read the article now and found it very short and to the point. They quoted a scientist or misquoted a scientist that states basically there is much variance in sea ice. Can't say the article is lying really. Misinforming misleading, yes we can say that.
Same ole same ole as I see it. Mainstream media with a few exceptions continues to not get it and propogate a misread of things. With intention also as I see it.
Quoting 28. Adam2001:

Is anyone on here a meteorologist or a graduate of a meteorological program willing to help a high school student on their project??


I'm no meteorologist, but I do know my stuff. Maybe I can help? sup, man?
Quoting 29. CaribBoy:



That turn to the west is irritating.


But meteorologically plausible. ;)
Burn bans here in south Louisiana. It's amazing how quickly we went from historic floods to severe drought in the span of like, two months.
Regarding 38 where I live in New Mexico it is the same. I live in a higher altitude area which is rural. We have not had any rain to speak of for a month or two then out of the blue a week ago had 2 and a half inches. Which in November is about unheard of here. But if you did the average my guess is the total rainfall fits the average. Just the way it is coming is way way not average. Nothing to deluge, than gone again.

I see that pattern here in the US . But it is just my personal opinion. Can't really qualify it but seems that way. Seems NC and SC had the same type thing. Texas last year. I really think something may be afoot that does not really register in annual averages.
Quoting 40. KoritheMan:



If we were in real life, I'd give you a high five and then buy you a beer. :)

And I would drink every drop.
Quoting 6. PensacolaBuoy:

A successful launch of GOES-R. This revolutionary satellite will make hurricane tracking much more spectacular! More info: Link

That was a beautiful launch. Very clear skies allowed me to watch the rocket to the treeline from my front porch.

Quoting 18. 999Ai2016:

Our European windstorm does not disappoint, at 968 hPa so far (Nov20, 01z) according to meteo-ciel.fr

That's an impressive storm!
We just got back from the GEOS-R launch, was quite spectacular.
So many people just do not get it. Had an argument with someone who says climate change is natural and that it is his right to destroy the planet. Also said as long as the planet is not destroyed in 50 years, he does not care and that all of our children would figure it out. His main point was that regulations to climate change take away his rights as an America to destroy the environment if he wants.

The deniers are a serious piece of work and sadly one of them is in the White House.

Quoting 40. KoritheMan:

While we drink beer , an army of morons are destroying our world.
Quoting 47. RobertWC:


Quoting 40. KoritheMan:

While we drink beer , an army of morons are destroying our world.

True...but you've got beer. It's a fair trade.
Quoting 47. RobertWC:


Quoting 40. KoritheMan:

While we drink beer , an army of morons are destroying our world.


The drinks are a catharsis for a quasi-immutable reality.
Quoting 48. Misanthroptimist:


True...but you've got beer. It's a fair trade.


No, it really isn't
Quoting 50. Hurricanes101:



No, it really isn't


He was obviously joking.
Quoting 51. KoritheMan:



He was obviously joking.


I figured
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2016

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BY DAY 6 AND BEYOND. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY (DAY 4) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A 15% OR GREATER PROBABILITY AREA. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK MIGHT BE WARRANTED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE NEXT DAY 3 UPDATE. BEYOND DAY 4 THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6.

..DIAL.. 11/19/2016

Probably somewhere along the Red River between OK & TX. NAM is a bit slower, centered over N central TX/S central OK. GFS, perhaps a bit quicker with the shortwave energy and closer to the ARKLATEX.

Slight tornado risk just ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon.

An unofficial guess:

Sorry this GOES-R launch pic wasn't better, was too close and it was dark with a smokey haze hanging in the air. So bright..and the sound.. After the incredible rumble, came a swish that sounded like it was cutting through the air.
Quoting 55. Tampa969mlb:

I think he will be a great president. starting out with no pay and no vacations, he reallyy cares about our country.


You were one who bought his lies, please get your head out of the clouds. He is only telling you what he thinks you want to hear. Guess what? He is a billionaire, he does not need the money. Just because he says he will go with no pay or vacation days, still does not mean that the decisions he makes are going to benefit our country. Just his view on climate change should scare you.
by the way, I'm going to get banned, so I'll see ya'll in three days.

peace n love n stuff- laterz!
Finally...

Current conditions at
Houston Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)

Fair
50°F
Humidity 48%
Wind Speed N 7 mph
Barometer 30.46 in (1031.4 mb)
Dewpoint 31°F (-1°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 47°F (8°C)
Last update 19 Nov 8:53 pm CST
Quoting 60. aquak9:



Nope and nope.
You get what you give.


Agreed, I will respect him, when he learns to respect others

That will never happen
g'nite.
Wrote a Western North Carolina and North Georgia fire blog. Winds are high and things are dry there this weekend.
Quoting 32. RobertWC:

The government has to insure free speech, not this blog This daily posting of well know morons saying the same thing over, and over needs to stop, given where we are.
We are in it deep , and we all know it . To see these fools trotting ole crap over and over . needs stop.

They don't bring enlightenment, just the same old sewer of Fossil Fuel turds.

It needs to stop.
Lot of posts missing tonight. We may get our first freeze of the season.


:/

Game over. This hurricane season was dry and boring here. Climate is changing, and not for the good.
Yow, I was hoping if I waited a week or two the post election stuff would have faded and we could be back onto weather.

Today was exciting. We finished putting together our ShelterLogic 10'x20' tent frame greenhouse.
In 25+mph wind gusts.
On dirt so alkaline the dust blowing in our faces tasted like baking soda.
My face is feeling quite thoroughly exfoliated. :)

And I'd like to give props to ShelterLogic's customer service department. Many pieces were missing, probably from damaged packaging, and all I had to do was email a list and quantity of the missing parts along with the name of housemate who made the original order, and they were shipped UPS ground within 48 hours. The unit's appropriate for ag zone 6 or 7.

Rain tomorrow. And again in a few days.
sigh

90L deserves higher than 50%. Upper-level winds aren't marginal anymore, either. Sometimes I don't understand the NHC. :l
Quoting 67. CaribBoy:



:/

Game over. This hurricane season was dry and boring here. Climate is changing, and not for the good.


...So, because you didn't have arbitrarily decent tropical rains in one year, the climate is changing?

wut
Quoting 69. KoritheMan:

sigh

90L deserves higher than 50%. Upper-level winds aren't marginal anymore, either. Sometimes I don't understand the NHC. :l
They worship the models too much. They are not philosophical at all.
Gozer .... I thought that was a BAD thing!



Gozer from Ghostbusters.

Oh .... GOES-R !!! .... nevamind ....... LOL
possible 90l ends up in the bay of honduras boc?
Quoting 46. Hurricanes101:



So many people just do not get it. Had an argument with someone who says climate change is natural and that it is his right to destroy the planet. Also said as long as the planet is not destroyed in 50 years, he does not care and that all of our children would figure it out. His main point was that regulations to climate change take away his rights as an America to destroy the environment if he wants.

The deniers are a serious piece of work and sadly one of them is in the White House.
It goes both ways, nut jobs on both sides.
Quoting 18. 999Ai2016:
* Saved radar until about 00z Nov 20 :
Good morning/afternoon. Fortunately and to my knowledge no fatalities have been reported yet because of the storm in W Europe. This event somewhat exceeded expectations (European windstorms = always expect the unexpected) in terms of max recorded wind gusts (170 kilometers per hour in Gatteville-le Phare on the French Channel coast) and MSLP. The lowest recorded pressure I found was 967 hPa from a buoy in the Channel (data from meteo-ciel : id=62103). * Pressure * Wind gusts (Pressure/wind : click "animation sur 24h") * Current satellite (animated IR).
70,000 homes without power in storm-hit France - Manila Bulletin / AFP.
Winds gusting to hurricane force left nearly 70,000 homes in western and northwestern France without power Sunday, the national electricity grid Enedis said.
The national weather agency Meteo France said winds powering to 160 kilometres (100 miles) per hour battered the Breton peninsula and Normandy coast overnight, and two other regions remained under a storm alert. (...)

Storm Angus causes flooding and chaos for emergency services - Belfast Telegraph.
Helicopter rescue underway as Storm Angus lashes southern England - Sky News.
Click articles' title for more. See also estofex.org, meteofrance.com.
76. Ed22
Quoting 16. MrTornadochase:


Definitely more organized than yesterday and new convective burst developing. My prediction is TD by tomorrow night.
Nice but don't rule out late this evening.
Cranking in the CZ.
http://www.pancanal.com/eng/radar/main.html
if 90l gathers up all that moisture available in the carib he would likely be called otto. need to watch this one
Quoting 74. NativeSun:

It goes both ways, nut jobs on both sides.
Where climate change is concerned, it certainly does *not* go both ways. One "side" believes in science; the other one doesn't.
hope they designate 90l well before landfall in nica. the eastern side of nica and costa are going to get torrential rains no matter but designation will increase nicas and ticos urgency to prepare.
Quoting 74. NativeSun:

It goes both ways, nut jobs on both sides.


Technically, yes, there are nutjobs on our side, too. But proportionally fewer, and with less DAMAGING nuttiness.
I live in San Isidro del General in Costa Rica, where rains have not been so bad yet. I can report that there are already over 90 communities affected by sustained rains over the last 48 hours in the extreme Southern Pacific. There are shelters open and ready to receive affected families.

The local mets are forecasting a gradual increase of rains in most of the country for the next three days.




85. bwi
Quoting 58. Skyepony:

Sorry this GOES-R launch pic wasn't better, was too close and it was dark with a smokey haze hanging in the air. So bright..and the sound.. After the incredible rumble, came a swish that sounded like it was cutting through the air.



There is an interesting "swish" that follows the planes landing at O'Hare airport a few seconds after the roar subsides, a half mile from the airport. I wonder if that is a similar effect? When we hear it, we all look around saying "Did you hear that?" and "What was that?" (I have a friend who lives near the airport.) I think that some scientist should analyze the origin of that sound.
This morning, it appears 90L is getting more organized (again).

After convection increased yesterday, and decreased last night, this morning it appears the system is getting slightly more organized on the VIS satellite.

November and late-season tropical systems seem to have unusual paths, and constant changes to intensity, always interesting, and many times unpredictable!

Quoting 70. KoritheMan:



...So, because you didn't have arbitrarily decent tropical rains in one year, the climate is changing?

wut


Not just in one year.
Quoting 87. Stormwatch247:

This morning, it appears 90L is getting more organized (again).

After convection increased yesterday, and decreased last night, this morning it appears the system is getting slightly more organized on the VIS satellite.

November and late-season tropical systems seem to have unusual paths, and constant changes to intensity, always interesting, and many times unpredictable!




But this time, there is a strong consensus for a stupid august-like west path. It's finished :(
Quoting 89. CaribBoy:



But this time, there is a strong consensus for a stupid august-like west path. It's finished :(


I hope you know you just insulted the time of year that favours your area Carib.


Quoting 90. isothunder67:



I hope you know you just insulted the time of year that favours your area Carib.





I don't pay attention to these maps. Most storms that formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles during ASO have been fish storms.

Also, do these maps also suggest a low rider like Matthew in late September? No.

And to go further, do these maps suggest a WEST path for 90L in november? No.
Quoting 86. ChiThom:



There is an interesting "swish" that follows the planes landing at O'Hare airport a few seconds after the roar subsides, a half mile from the airport. I wonder if that is a similar effect? When we hear it, we all look around saying "Did you hear that?" and "What was that?" (I have a friend who lives near the airport.) I think that some scientist should analyze the origin of that sound.
That swishing/whipping sound is the wingtip vortices sinking to the ground. You can hear them in this video at about the 0:45 mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=837tjPv4iys
Recon on their way to 90L.


The system South of Hispaniola is bigger than 90L. Would be nice if it ends up eating 90L.
i believe recon will find a td unusual for sure just north of 10 degrees.
Quoting 93. Neapolitan:

That swishing/whipping sound is the wingtip vortices sinking to the ground. You can hear them in this video at about the 0:45 mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=837tjPv4iys

I used to hear the "swish" regularly when I walked my dog in a park just north of SeaTac. The wind had to be calm, and occasionally, especially if a heavy was landing, the vortices would come low enough to thrash the tree tops
Quoting 93. Neapolitan:

That swishing/whipping sound is the wingtip vortices sinking to the ground.

Yep. That is the sound. Thanks Nea.
Quoting 86. ChiThom:



There is an interesting "swish" that follows the planes landing at O'Hare airport a few seconds after the roar subsides, a half mile from the airport. I wonder if that is a similar effect? When we hear it, we all look around saying "Did you hear that?" and "What was that?" (I have a friend who lives near the airport.) I think that some scientist should analyze the origin of that sound.


My guess would be that that is the sound of the wind mixing above.

Here in the mountains of Montana, I have witnessed some interesting things. One breezey day I was out in the pasture tending the horses and rather suddenly I heard all sorts of "whoosh" up above... couldn't see anything directly there. And then WHOOM! this gush of air hit the ground with such force that it pulled a horse shelter right up into the air and sent it crashing in the next pasture. Hard to imagine, you sort of had to be there, but it was definitely a "WTF? moment'.

Again too, I was cutting hay one summer day, many years ago, VERY close to the airport. The air was very still. A plane came in for a landing, passing overhead at perhaps 300 feet. I guess the plane must've lifted briefly as it passed by, because two twin counter-rotating dust-devils formed right there, beneath where the wing tips had just passed, right by me, sucking up light plant debris to well over 50 feet up. I didn't time them and wasn't wearing a watch, but they lasted longer than I would've guessed would be possible.

My point is that just because we can't directly see air mixing and flowing doesn't mean that it isn't happening.
This is rather far afield, but once I was paddling my canoe in the local creek when I saw a water spout ten feet ahead of my bow, and a roaring sound that carried the water up about 50 feet. I thought I was gonna get swamped, so I started paddling backwards as fast as possible. I escaped, and the water spout died down as quickly as it had formed. The whole thing lasted maybe ten seconds, but it scared the hell outta me that day. Nobody else saw it. I was alone. It was a relatively windless day.
Quoting 93. Neapolitan:

That swishing/whipping sound is the wingtip vortices sinking to the ground. You can hear them in this video at about the 0:45 mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=837tjPv4iys

That is the sound. I've heard it before behind the roar of low flying heavy jets. it came the same way, after the wave of launch rumble.

Based on the latest model guidance, 90L/Otto could be a hurricane at landfall in Nicaragua on Thursday or Friday. Not only may the Atlantic see a Thanksgiving hurricane, it may see a landfalling Thanksgiving hurricane.

Went to bed two nights ago thinking 90l was done for it, didn't check all yesterday and woke up truly surprised today. The European model IMO has had the best grasp on this storm throughout while the GFS has been all over the place with 90l. IF 90l has a closed low right now Nicaragua will be in serious trouble, not much to hinder this things development other than how fast it forms.
Off-topic but of interest to weenies like me -- It was nasty the other day in Duluth MN when the rain changed to snow. This is a time-lapse.

https://youtu.be/sxAZbHwWQEI
The 90L recon data hasn't been updating...
Recon problems or did they turn the data stream off?
Quoting 105. jimijr:


Did they change something on youtube? I can't get the video to play.
Quoting 105. jimijr:

Off-topic but of interest to weenies like me -- It was nasty the other day in Duluth MN when the rain changed to snow. This is a time-lapse.

https://youtu.be/sxAZbHwWQEI

Where's my picnic basket and blanket? I'm on my way!
111. bwi
1065mb high pressure analyzed yesterday. Don't know that I've ever seen it that high on this side of the pole. So I looked it up -- apparentely 1050 is pretty common for the Siberian High, and the record is 1085mb. Wikipedia is running a fundraiser this week, so if you appreciate their service and can afford it, show them some love!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressur e

The highest sea-level pressure on Earth occurs in Siberia, where the Siberian High often attains a sea-level pressure above 1050 mbar (105 kPa; 31 inHg), with record highs close to 1085 mbar (108.5 kPa; 32.0 inHg).
The highest adjusted-to-sea level barometric pressure ever recorded on Earth (above 750 meters) was 1,085.7 hectopascals (32.06 inHg) measured in Tosontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.[5] The highest adjusted-to-sea level barometric pressure ever recorded (below 750 meters) was at Agata, Evenkiyskiy, Russia [6653%u2019N, 9328%u2019E, elevation: 261 m (856.3 ft)] on 31 December 1968 of 1,083.8 hectopascals (32.00 inHg).[6] The discrimination is due to the problematic assumptions (assuming a standard lapse rate) associated with reduction of sea level from high elevations.[5]


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 111. bwi:

1065mb high pressure analyzed yesterday. Don't know that I've ever seen it that high on this side of the pole. So I looked it up -- apparentely 1050 is pretty common for the Siberian High, and the record is 1085mb. Wikipedia is running a fundraiser this week, so if you appreciate their service and can afford it, show them some love!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressur e

The highest sea-level pressure on Earth occurs in Siberia, where the Siberian High often attains a sea-level pressure above 1050 mbar (105 kPa; 31 inHg), with record highs close to 1085 mbar (108.5 kPa; 32.0 inHg).
The highest adjusted-to-sea level barometric pressure ever recorded on Earth (above 750 meters) was 1,085.7 hectopascals (32.06 inHg) measured in Tosontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.[5] The highest adjusted-to-sea level barometric pressure ever recorded (below 750 meters) was at Agata, Evenkiyskiy, Russia [66�53%u2019N, 93�28%u2019E, elevation: 261 m (856.3 ft)] on 31 December 1968 of 1,083.8 hectopascals (32.00 inHg).[6] The discrimination is due to the problematic assumptions (assuming a standard lapse rate) associated with reduction of sea level from high elevations.[5]





It's way too early but the GFS is showing some of that Siberian Air rotating down into North America and down into the U.S. near the end of the run (end of November/Beginning of December).

Something to watch for. The first couple weeks in December have been known to produce some significant snow storms across parts of the U.S.



Does this blog have a winter sniw contest as well?