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Little Change to 90L Off the Coast of Nicaragua

By: Jeff Masters 2:28 PM GMT on November 17, 2016

An area of disturbed weather in the extreme southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua (Invest 90L) has changed little since Wednesday, but is still expected to develop into a tropical depression by early next week as it meanders erratically. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that 90L had a modest amount of rotation, but heavy thunderstorm activity was sparse and not showing any increase. The disturbance had plenty of moisture to work with (about 70% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere), and water vapor satellite imagery showed no large-scale areas of dry air that 90L might have to contend with. Wind shear was marginally favorable for development, near 20 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29.5°C (85°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 90L.

Track forecast: 90L a heavy rain threat to Central America
Steering currents are weak in the region, and 90L will not move much over the next five days. Heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua are a major concern from 90L, as even a weak tropical depression or tropical storm parked in this area for multiple days could cause significant flooding and landslides. For example, Tropical Storm Gamma of 2005, with top winds of just 50 mph, stalled just north of Nicaragua on November 18 - 20, causing at least 37 fatalities in Honduras and Belize.

Our three reliable models for prediction of tropical storm genesis—the European, GFS and UKMET models—continued to forecast in their 0Z Thursday operational runs that 90L would develop into a tropical depression by early next week. About half of the 50 forecasts from the 0Z Thursday European model ensemble predicted that 90L would eventually become Tropical Storm Otto. However, only 4% of these forecasts showed 90L becoming a hurricane. About 85% of the 20 GFS ensemble members from the 0Z Thursday forecast produced a Tropical Storm Otto. In their 7 am EST Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 70%, respectively—a decrease of 10% from the odds given Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to potentially investigate 90L on Friday afternoon.

We’ll have a new post early this afternoon on the NOAA global climate summary for October.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Why the media must make climate change a vital issue for President Trump

Link
Quoting 1. MontanaZephyr:

Why the media must make climate change a vital issue for President Trump

Link


Not much chance of that, as most Americans don't talk about climate change.
Quoting 1. MontanaZephyr:

Why the media must make climate change a vital issue for President Trump

Link


5 Day old article would have been good for the blog discussion from a couple days ago about Trump and the policies he will be facing.
I would just hate to see every blog turn into a back and forth debate about how bad Trump is.
This doesn't look too good.

90L apparently causing our relentless moderate rain here in Western Panama near the Costa Rica Border. We seldom get night or morning rains. However, from midnight last night until now (9am) we've rainfall is 2". In the past 24 hours, we've had nearly 5" but I live in the rainforest, and of course, we get a lot of rain over the year. Moderate rainfall like this - even for long periods - seldom causes problems.

Normally, this is the season of transitioning fromour heaviest rain months to our 5-month windy and dry season with steadily decreasing afternoon rainstorms.

Looking at the Nullschool wind map projections out to 5 days, it appears that the fairly-well defined circulation of 90L will move closer to shore from further out in the SW Caribbean by tomorrow and wander up and down Panama's Caribbean coast for a while.

Western Panama is still well below average total precipitation for the year, and this pattern will help mitigate that. It's also just after the first coffee picking, and the second flowering, and gentle rains right now should be very good for our coffee farmers. Our local gourmet arabica coffee is some of the best in the world.

The blog is slow at the moment, so I'll post a bit about my life here in the mountains of Western Panama. Our coffee growers depend on a unique set of micro-climates just south of the Talamanca - the 7,000 - 8,000 ft tall mountain range that is the continental divide in this region. The rugged the Boquete Valley region is located on the eastern slopes of 11,400ft tall Volcan Baru, a dormant volcano and the highest mountain in Panama. The town itself is at about 3,200 ft elevation.

Abel Rios - is a 5th generation coffee farmer, and his American wife, are very good friends. Abel still fire-roasts his coffee, and wife Elizabeth sells it at her La Villa coffee lounge and cafe"La Villa" La Villa is in the building of our local expat community theater complex, and is a beautiful garden setting on the Rio Caldera - the small river that runs through town. I'll be heading down there shortly with my tablet to enjoy some of the benefits of retirement in this tropical paradise. ¡La vida es buena!

Below is a pic I took on Abel's family coffee farm - Finca Estrella - up the mountains a bit further in the Alto Quiel neighborhood above the Boquete Valley.
This will soothe any AGW debates

Link
Good morning

At the moment 90L is status quo
90L is taking it time and wants to get thing right before taking off 90L/future Otto wants to make sure the advisory package won't be a waste of time

This should occur as the cold front that's over us is now stationary-ish maybe retograding also weakening I do expect it to eventually dissipate
High pressure over SE US will shift NE and another front to enter the GOM eventually heading towards the extreme NW Caribbean
During this time I expect 90L to meander in the SW Caribbean slow and steady increases in convection and organisation as the front moves away and dissipates and high moves NE and away from the area then I expect 90L or whatever it is by that time to start moving N as the next front makes its way down then 90L to move NE in the NW Caribbean as the front starts to move through the NW Caribbean

This is what I think could be the outcome for 90L
Subtropical Storm Deni becomes extratropical in the South Atlantic.
Formed: November 15th 2016
Dissipation: November 16th 2016
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 998 mbar
Damaged: Unknow
Fatalities: 2
Areas Affected: Southeast of Brazil

Thanks Dr.; regardless of whether 90L develops into a storm, and where it might end up, a stalled out tropical rainmaker around Central America would be a bad thing..............I am not hopeful on this system, and especially with weak steering currents, making out of the current region to the North as suggested by two isolated models unless it really deepens next week into a "steerable" storm by what ever mid-level flow is around next week; it looks to be a Central American event at this juncture.

And who knows?...................Maybe it will have a better shot in the E-Pac.............................

Quoting 2. MahFL:



Not much chance of that, as most Americans don't talk about climate change.


Complete bs,in all ways.

You speak for no one in reality.

Maybe that is just your social local circle of no nothings.

They were a political party once,...kinda like one today.

. The no nothing party



DoD Releases Report on Security Implications of Climate Change
DoD News, Defense Media Activity


SHINGTON, July 29, 2015 — Global climate change will aggravate problems such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak political institutions that threaten stability in a number of countries, according to a report the Defense Department sent to Congress yesterday.

The Senate Appropriations Committee requested the report in conjunction with the Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2015, asking that the undersecretary of defense for policy provide a report that identifies the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each combatant command and the ways those commands integrate risk mitigation into their planning processes.

Fragile States Vulnerable to Disruption

The report finds that climate change is a security risk, Pentagon officials said, because it degrades living conditions, human security and the ability of governments to meet the basic needs of their populations. Communities and states that already are fragile and have limited resources are significantly more vulnerable to disruption and far less likely to respond effectively and be resilient to new challenges, they added.

“The Department of Defense's primary responsibility is to protect national security interests around the world,” officials said in a news release announcing the report’s submission. “This involves considering all aspects of the global security environment and planning appropriately for potential contingencies and the possibility of unexpected developments both in the near and the longer terms.

“It is in this context,” they continued, “that the department must consider the effects of climate change -- such as sea level rise, shifting climate zones and more frequent and intense severe weather events -- and how these effects could impact national security.”

Integrating Climate-Related Impacts Into Planning

To reduce the national security implications of climate change, combatant commands are integrating climate-related impacts into their planning cycles, officials said. The ability of the United States and other countries to cope with the risks and implications of climate change requires monitoring, analysis and integration of those risks into existing overall risk management measures, as appropriate for each combatant command, they added.

The report concludes the Defense Department already is observing the impacts of climate change in shocks and stressors to vulnerable nations and communities, including in the United States, the Arctic, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and South America, officials said.


Quoting 2. MahFL:



Not much chance of that, as most Americans don't talk about climate change.
You really know factually what most Americans talk about.
There were tornadoes reported in Wales this morning
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38016701
Link
Quoting 4. FatPenguin:

This doesn't look too good.


Looks very promising.



Soon we'll have Arctic sea routes open all year round, and Arctic archipelagoes hospitable for human life.
Quoting 16. elioe:

Looks very promising.



Soon we'll have Arctic sea routes open all year round, and Arctic archipelagoes hospitable for human life.


So cool - so much arctic oil waiting for the drill, so many sonar pulses and oil slicks from all the world's navies thrown at the marine life up there as a bonus.


Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold - Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog - Aug 26, 2012.
Quoting 14. hydrus:

You really know factually what most Americans talk about.


Fascinating was the thought that came to my mind,arrogance as well.

When one has no scientific evidence to back up a claim like that, it is logic that dictates why.

Feelings have no effect on the science involved.

Science stays above the din of ignorance,for the same logical reason.

Issac Asimov once reminded us of what we see today in large numbers.


.
Isaac Asimov
“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
― Isaac Asimov



😯




12.5 / 80.5

Appears to be a slight Southward drift at this time.

thanks for the lunch time read gentle beautiful warm day today high of 63 today normal should be 41
Quoting 19. kmanislander:

12.5 / 80.5

Appears to be a slight Southward drift at this time.


could it cross over
Quoting 6. snotly:

This will soothe any AGW debates

Link


It may help, Mr. snotly. And since burning ethanol creates more CO2, maybe a re-circulation system could be put into the proposed system.
Quoting 4. FatPenguin:

This doesn't look too good.


no it does not and depending on how it goes we may very well be witnessing something very big happening faster than ever though possible but winter is just beginning
Quoting 17. 999Ai2016:
Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold - Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog - Aug 26, 2012.


That was an interesting link. Lots of scientific facts, and lots of discussions about uncertainty, But overall, the text was constructed in a manner to make people as worried as possible. Positive effects were completely ignored. Such as the effect of decreased sea ice cover on snowfall on top of glaciers. With water melting glaciers from below, there's no mention that majority of Greenlandic ice either flows towards the west (not part of Arctic Ocean), or is situated over an inland bedrock "bowl".

"Might lead", "may be", "looks as if". Lots of weasel words. "Might not lead", "may not be", "is only speculation that". The latter list could replace the former, without the factual content of that text changing.

It's mentioned as a "feedback loop" that decreasing ice is making it possible to extract oil and natural gas. However, decreasing ice also shortens international maritime trade route, and as such, leads to decrease in fossil fuel demand in that sector. A different feedback loop.

Summa summarum: links like this can be valuable sources of information. But be careful, because facts, opinions, and means to influence readers to particular direction may flow together seamlessly. And don't expect to get the full picture from one link.
Yup; the strongest/tightest vort signature for 90L is now at the surface (as opposed to the mid-level  at this time yesterday) and inching closer to Panama:


Surface:



Mid:

Quoting 26. elioe:



That was an interesting link. Lots of scientific facts, and lots of discussions about uncertainty, But overall, the text was constructed in a manner to make people as worried as possible. Positive effects were completely ignored. Such as the effect of decreased sea ice cover on snowfall on top of glaciers. With water melting glaciers from below, there's no mention that majority of Greenlandic ice either flows towards the west (not part of Arctic Ocean), or is situated over an inland bedrock "bowl".

"Might lead", "may be", "looks as if". Lots of weasel words. "Might not lead", "may not be", "is only speculation that". The latter list could replace the former, without the factual content of that text changing.

It's mentioned as a "feedback loop" that decreasing ice is making it possible to extract oil and natural gas. However, decreasing ice also shortens international maritime trade route, and as such, leads to decrease in fossil fuel demand in that sector. A different feedback loop.

Summa summarum: links like this can be valuable sources of information. But be careful, because facts, opinions, and means to influence readers to particular direction may flow together seamlessly. And don't expect to get the full picture from one link.


Weasel words? The uncertainty monster doesn't just meander in one direction. For example, one downfall to opening maritime trade routes is of course the decrease in albedo from soot on snow and ice deposited by using those trade routes previously not available. I would take care as it certainly seems like you may be rooting for the "uncertain" consequences.
The winter solstice is still 5 weeks out in time.


😯


looks like winter may in fact be on its way
Quoting 30. Patrap:

The winter solstice is still 5 weeks out in time.


%uD83D%uDE2F


meteorological winter is dec 1
13 days from now at the end of hurricane season
in Atlantic
Quoting 24. JimSpriggs:



It may help, Mr. snotly. And since burning ethanol creates more CO2, maybe a re-circulation system could be put into the proposed system.


Carbon capture at gas fired plant exhausts is certainly technically feasible, and the recovered ethanol coul d be sed as fuel for the turbinese, so even though there would certainly be losses, implementing such a technology would reduce our emissions. Whether it would be a more effective or economical solution than solar or wind power is a totally different question, but in the situation we are in now, anything that reduces our emissions is a good thing.

The Difference Between Meteorological Winter and Astronomical Winter
Meteorological winter is a three month period that runs from Dec 1st to the end of February. It is the coldest three month period of the year in the northern hemisphere. Astronomical winter is what we all refer to when we talk about the winter season and this is based on when the sun reaches the most southern point on the globe, the Tropic of Capricorn. If you are located right on the Tropic of Capricorn at 12:00 noon on the first day of astronomical winter, the sun will be directly overhead. Also, on the first day of astronomical winter, the sun is at its lowest point in our sky at 12:00 noon and, of course, it is the shortest day of the year. Obviously, it is the first day of the summer season in the southern hemisphere.
Quoting 19. kmanislander:

12.5 / 80.5

Appears to be a slight Southward drift at this time.




Yep 12.5N 80.6W

There was a slight S drift but now it looks to be stationary now and has been for the last few satellite frames we will need to get few more frames to confirm
Also appears to getting more organised and convection is also starting to blow up some more


Quoting 22. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could it cross over


I doubt it I doubt it may make landfall down there but we will just have to wait and see we got a long weekend ahead

I'm looking forward for the RECON mission on Sat it will be interesting to see what they find

Quoting 23. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




West or North or East

Quoting 28. weathermanwannabe:

Yup; the strongest/tightest vort signature for 90L is now at the surface (as opposed to the mid-level  at this time yesterday) and inching closer to Panama:


Surface:



Mid:




Yes getting better organised but I wouldn't say it's inching closer to Panama I'd say the vort signature is getting bigger in size and intensity
bbl back too work
Smoke from the fires will be a factor in tonights Saints @ Carolina NFL game in Charlotte.


Quoting 2. MahFL:



Not much chance of that, as most Americans don't talk about climate change.


Our children and our grandchildren will be. There is very little doubt about this.
Quoting 32. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



meteorological winter is dec 1
13 days from now at the end of hurricane season
in Atlantic


I roll with the ancients who still today,remain in our collective memory.

U can bet,that met winter is gone forever in the temperate n hermisphere.

Faster and faster.



Quoting 3. Sfloridacat5:



5 Day old article would have been good for the blog discussion from a couple days ago about Trump and the policies he will be facing.
I would just hate to see every blog turn into a back and forth debate about how bad Trump is.


I do not think that there will be much to debate about this in ~ 3 more years. I hope that I am wrong that he will be a bad president. I also hope that I will win the Lotto.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 29. Naga5000:



Weasel words? The uncertainty monster doesn't just meander in one direction. For example, one downfall to opening maritime trade routes is of course the decrease in albedo from soot on snow and ice deposited by using those trade routes previously not available. I would take care as it certainly seems like you may be rooting for the "uncertain" consequences.


Yep, it doesn't meander in just one direction. Geopolitical tensions may decrease, native inhabitants' livelihoods may get enhanced, and ships may use natural gas (producing no soot). But, you see, the picture gets more full comment after comment. I'm not certain, what your last sentence means, I guess that "root" doesn't relate to biology now, lol. But what bothers me most about mentioning these "uncertain" consequences is the lack of quantitive approach to their probabilities and possible results.
Thank You Dr. Masters....
Quoting 26. elioe:



That was an interesting link. Lots of scientific facts, and lots of discussions about uncertainty, But overall, the text was constructed in a manner to make people as worried as possible. Positive effects were completely ignored. Such as the effect of decreased sea ice cover on snowfall on top of glaciers. With water melting glaciers from below, there's no mention that majority of Greenlandic ice either flows towards the west (not part of Arctic Ocean), or is situated over an inland bedrock "bowl".

"Might lead", "may be", "looks as if". Lots of weasel words. "Might not lead", "may not be", "is only speculation that". The latter list could replace the former, without the factual content of that text changing.

It's mentioned as a "feedback loop" that decreasing ice is making it possible to extract oil and natural gas. However, decreasing ice also shortens international maritime trade route, and as such, leads to decrease in fossil fuel demand in that sector. A different feedback loop.

Summa summarum: links like this can be valuable sources of information. But be careful, because facts, opinions, and means to influence readers to particular direction may flow together seamlessly. And don't expect to get the full picture from one link.
I see some are still riding that Bjorn Lomborg-ian "climate change is good for you" thing. Did you know cancer has positive side effects, too? It's true; it helps those with weight loss issues. Tuberculosis gives most a reduced risk of asthma. Hookworms eradicate some allergies; herpes can protect you from the bubonic plague; sickle cell disease keeps malaria at bay.

I really do wish the lukewarmists would step aside, as they're not doing anybody any good. I suppose they feel history will remember them as the calm and steady middle ground between far-right denialism and the most sober and disturbing scientific pronouncements, but I think they'll be wrong; I think they'll be seen as delayers and equivocators, people who believe there's a problem, but are too afraid of rocking the boat to say anything about it.
Quoting 14. hydrus:

You really know factually what most Americans talk about.


The article was saying although about 65% of Americans are sure Global Warming is occurring, it's not a subject they talk about with other people, including family members, it's not high on the list of their priorities.

President - Elect Trump has said he wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement immediately, but the agreement has a 4 year waiting period before you can pull out, how's that going to work out ?

By that way I do believe myself in climate change, just so people are clear about that....
I dont understand how a system in the sw caribbean could Develop given the strong northerly winds expected during the weekend ..im confused



Quoting nhc
"Looking ahead, a reinforcing front will enter the
northwest Caribbean on Sunday bringing a surge of strong northerly
winds across the western Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and
along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama into
Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected along
and south of the merged frontal boundary."
Quoting 38. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Our children and our grandchildren will be. There is very little doubt about this.



Actually not. They will be dead.