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A Slowly Unfolding Saga: 90L Takes Its Time Developing

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:49 PM GMT on November 16, 2016

An area of disturbed weather in the extreme southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua (Invest 90L) is likely to develop into a tropical depression by this weekend as it moves little. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that 90L had developed a modest amount of rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity was sparse but on the increase. The disturbance has plenty of moisture to work with (about 70% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere), and water vapor satellite imagery showed no large-scale areas of dry air that 90L might have to contend with. Wind shear was favorable for development, a moderate 10 - 15 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29.5°C (85°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L as of 1445Z (9:45 am EST) Wednesday, November 16, 2016. 90L is drawing on moisture from the Caribbean as well as from the Pacific Ocean south of Panama. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.


Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures that are now even higher than the average readings for September in the Caribbean (about 2.5 standard deviations above the mean) will help support development of 90L. Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel) tweeted on Tuesday: “Caribbean waters are *supposed* to cool down by this point in the season but then again what’s “normal” nowadays?” According to Lowry, SSTs in the Caribbean are running just behind those in 2005 as the warmest on record for November. Image credit: @MichaelRLowry.

Track forecast: 90L a heavy rain threat to Central America
Steering currents are weak in the region, and 90L will not move much over the next five days. Heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua are a major concern from 90L. Even a weak cyclone parked in this area could cause significant flooding and landslides. During the hyperactive season of 2005—when we’d already run through the alphabetic list of Atlantic names by mid-November—the slow-developing Tropical Storm Gamma stalled just north of Nicaragua on November 18 - 20, causing at least 37 fatalities in Honduras and Belize.

In their 7 am EST Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 80%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to potentially investigate 90L on Friday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Otto. Ensemble model guidance from 00Z Wednesday supports the idea that 90L could become Otto. About two-thirds of the European model ensemble members develop Otto into at least a tropical storm by Sunday, including three of the four highest-probability members. About three-quarters of the GFS ensemble members produce a Tropical Storm Otto by this weekend. The ensemble guidance suggests only a slim chance that Otto could go on to become a hurricane. Any movement of 90L away from the extreme southwest Caribbean is likely to be at least a week from now.

The heat goes on
At last count, the U.S. had set 2820 record highs and 23 record lows for the month of November thus far, and this ratio is sure to become even more lopsided as the month rolls on. Dozens of record highs are likely to fall on Wednesday and Thursday from the Rockies to the East Coast, ahead of a sharp cold front plowing across the nation late this week. A blizzard watch was in effect for Thursday and Friday for parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, with winter storm watches extending from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. This week’s front will bring temperatures down to near or slightly below average in many areas. However, it now appears that temperatures will surge back well above average for at least the western and central U.S. during most of Thanksgiving week, while the East Coast states are in line for seasonably cool conditions. It’s quite possible that a number of U.S. locations will end up with their warmest November on record, including Lincoln, NE (see embedded tweet below from Ken Dewey at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

We’ll be posting regularly on 90L as well as other topics over the next few days.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Figure 3. Temperature anomalies (departures from average, in degrees C) at 18Z (1:00 pm EST) Thursday, November 17, 2016, as projected by the 12Z Wednesday run of the GFS model. Readings will be 15°F to 25°F above average on Thursday from the Central and Southern Plains to the Midwest and South, while temperatures will run below average over most of the intermountain West on Thursday behind a sharp cold front. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.




Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

75F here in Central IL both tomorrow and Friday That will be good for two records if it holds to fruition.... Holy Wow!..... That's normal. 15C above normal that is...

FASTER and FASTER...
If you want to talk politics go back to other blog and stay in there. It's WEATHER TIME in this one :)
Need to get serious on 90L, with it taking it's sweet time, it may find just the right spot...
We need some more rain here in SE TX, hopefully front on Friday will bring a good line thru here, then plummeting to 40 degrees Sunday morning. First chill of the season coming
Updated: Wed, 16 Nov 2016 16:30:04 GMT
Atlantic Basin

No Active Warnings
As of Wed, 16 Nov 2016 16:30:04 GMT
XXXX
90L/INV/XX/XX
Thank you for the update. I guess the one variable is where will it go when it decides to move????? Dont like things sitting down there.
TXNT26 KNES 161203
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 16/1145Z

C. 13.5N

D. 78.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
BUT CONVECTION MEASURES SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
Quoting 4. RitaEvac:

We need some more rain here in SE TX, hopefully front on Friday will bring a good line thru here, then plummeting to 40 degrees Sunday morning. First chill of the season coming
Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures that are now even higher than the average readings for September in the Caribbean (about 2.5 standard deviations above the mean) will help support development of 90L. Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel) tweeted on Tuesday: "Caribbean waters are *supposed* to cool down by this point in the season but then again what's "normal" nowadays?" According to Lowry, SSTs in the Caribbean are running just behind those in 2005 as the warmest on record for November.

The heat goes on
At last count, the U.S. had set 2820 record highs and 23 record lows for the month of November thus far, and this ratio is sure to become even more lopsided as the month rolls on. Dozens of record highs are likely to fall on Wednesday and Thursday from the Rockies to the East Coast, ahead of a sharp cold front plowing across the nation late this week.



Second-Warmest October Cements Hottest Year
Climate Central - Nov 15.
While an exceptionally strong El Nino helped to boost temperatures early in the year, most of the excess heat has built up over decades as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere.

2016 Will Be Hottest Year, UN Climate Meeting Told
Climate Central - Nov 14.
"Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016," World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
"The extra heat from the powerful El Nino event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue," Taalas said.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/2000Z NEAR 11.5N 81.5W
Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen...
If we lived in Northern China or any part of Siberia our complaints might be of opposite sign since it's been unusually cold there. Overall global average is record warm but the huge extremes in North America this month are mostly weather and could flip to normal or below in the next six weeks. If it does and we're suddenly really cold, snowy, and icy, the reality will be that global average temperature is still record high even if we're frozen and the global warming problem will not have suddenly vanished.

One place, as I've said before, that climate change signal is now overwhelming weather noise is the Arctic Ocean Coast. Every October there will now be above normal because of lack of ice. Barrow AK has not had a below normal October since 2001.

Quoting 12. 999Ai2016:

Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures that are now even higher than the average readings for September in the Caribbean (about 2.5 standard deviations above the mean) will help support development of 90L. Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel) tweeted on Tuesday: "Caribbean waters are *supposed* to cool down by this point in the season but then again what's "normal" nowadays?" According to Lowry, SSTs in the Caribbean are running just behind those in 2005 as the warmest on record for November.

The heat goes on
At last count, the U.S. had set 2820 record highs and 23 record lows for the month of November thus far, and this ratio is sure to become even more lopsided as the month rolls on. Dozens of record highs are likely to fall on Wednesday and Thursday from the Rockies to the East Coast, ahead of a sharp cold front plowing across the nation late this week.



Second-Warmest October Cements Hottest Year
Climate Central - Nov 15.
While an exceptionally strong El Nino helped to boost temperatures early in the year, most of the excess heat has built up over decades as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere.

2016 Will Be Hottest Year, UN Climate Meeting Told
Climate Central - Nov 14.
"Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016," World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
"The extra heat from the powerful El Nino event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue," Taalas said.



It is very unlikely 2017 will be warmer than 2016. 2016 still had a lot of residual El Nino heat.

2020.. another matter. The continuing warming trend will eventually overwhelm cyclic or random cooling trends and likely produce another record warm year then or soon after unless another El Nino makes it happen earlier.
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 46. RobertWC:

80,000 reindeer have starved to death as Arctic sea ice retreats

Reindeer are used to sporadic ice cover, and adult males can normally smash through ice around 2 centimetres thick, says Bruce Forbes at the University of Lapland in Rovaniemi, Finland, who led the study. But in 2006 and 2013, the ice was several tens of centimetres thick.
Knock-on effects
In both 2006 and 2013, ice in the Barents and Kara seas near the Yamal peninsula began to retreat in early November, a time when it normally builds up rapidly following the summer thaw. A lack of sea-ice cover led to soaring evaporation and humidity. This, combined with unseasonal warm air temperatures, led to abundant formation of rain clouds.

Prevailing winds blew the clouds over the southernmost tip of the peninsula, where indigenous Yamal Nenet herders were leading huge reindeer herds south. Torrential rain for 24 hours left all snow cover in the region sodden.

But within hours, temperatures plunged to -40 C for the rest of winter, suddenly turning the waterlogged snow into impenetrable, solid ice for months that prevented feeding.

In 2013, these events led to the starvation of 61,000 of the 275,000 reindeer on the peninsula. Losing 22 per cent of the population has never happened before, says Forbes.


Link
Thanks for the Update on 90L; the mid-level vort looks pretty tight but it is still elongated at the surface........It needs some core convection to bring pressures down at the surface to try and align it which has thus-far been lacking for the past 48 hours. 



Surface:


Mid:


Thanks for the update!
Based on the vis loop, I would say that the developing coc is right at 78.9W-14N and stationary:




Feels like a breath of fresh air.
eastern parts costa rica & nicaraqua better be ready next week 948mb gfs western parts of latin america might see flooding too as the winds should be onshore dragging in moisture from the warm pacific.
Quoting 22. weathermanwannabe:

Based on the vis loop, I would say that the developing coc is right at 78.9W-14N and stationary:

br


I zoomed into that location close maybe a tad w sw of that location and quasi as you said

90L/INV/XX/XX


Just reading a post from the Weather Channel on FaceBook. The comment section is just amazing, one wonders where people get their "information".
Quoting 2. RitaEvac:

If you want to talk politics go back to other blog and stay in there. It's WEATHER TIME in this one :)

I presume Otto innocent until the threshold of category 4, wink.
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I zoomed into that location close maybe a tad w sw of that location and quasi as you said

90L/INV/XX/XX





Close enough as it tries to put same organized meat around the bone............................
Quoting 26. oldmickey:

Just reading a post from the Weather Channel on FaceBook. The comment section is just amazing, one wonders where people get their "information".


I think it must be off the Internet. 'cuz that's ALWAYS correct.
Okay.. a hard question.

WHY are the SSTs in the Carribean two sigmas above the mean? Last year was easy, equatorial heating from El Nino. But this year??

Also what drives the flat spot in the seasonal increase curve between June and July?
Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:

Okay.. a hard question.

WHY are the SSTs in the Carribean two sigmas above the mean? Last year was easy, equatorial heating from El Nino. But this year??

Also what drives the flat spot in the seasonal increase curve between June and July?
There was a sudden change with the QBO which started in late 2015...Link
Who knows we may end up with something like this. Hurricane Gordon (1994):

I'm still fascinated by the 916 mbar projection for 90L in 18Z GFS yesterday. After all, the record of 1932 Cuba hurricane as the latest Cat 5 hurricane has lasted for more than a half of the duration of official hurricane database. Perhaps this is the time for it to be broken?
Very impressive warmth. At Cleveland, it's been the warmest year through November 15th ever recorded, with a mean temperature of 56.8F, beating out 2012 with a mean of 56.4F over the same period. Mind you, records date all the way back to 1871. The average maximum temperature of 66.1F is also a record, second place belonging to 1949 with a mean max temp of 65.9F. The average minimum temperature of 47.6F is fifth warmest overall, behind 1931, 1921, 1938, and 1933 (just a tenth of a degree colder than the last two). It's worth noting all of those years were prior to the establishment of the airport as the weather station. Readings previously were taken downtown on a rooftop site, so the low temperatures especially probably read a bit higher than compared to today's standards.
Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:

Okay.. a hard question.

WHY are the SSTs in the Carribean two sigmas above the mean? Last year was easy, equatorial heating from El Nino. But this year??

Also what drives the flat spot in the seasonal increase curve between June and July?


They aren't two sigmas above the mean. Global warming is happening much faster than expected, and these are now normal Caribbean temperatures for this time of the year.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Who knows we may end up with something like this. Hurricane Gordon (1994):



If anything tropical does form, the constant high pressure over the Southeast U.S. and Florida would prevent it from moving north.
The system should remain mostly a threat to Central America.
The article yesterday about the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale super moon flooding was interesting, including a resident's comments. The interview was taped and was on TWC earlier today. The resident's statement about property values going down to nothing if current rising sea levels continue was perhaps a wake-up call to people living in that area who viewed the TV session.

My residence is about a hundred feet above sea level, but some relatives who live down there are not much above sea level. They know about the high tide flooding problems and hopefully, they'll monitor the situation and sell their homes if property values at and close to the coast start an irreversible decline at some point in the future.
TXNT26 KNES 161818
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 16/1745Z

C. 14.2N

D. 79.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THREE TENTHS BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. POSITION BASED
ON MIDLEVEL CENTER. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK
XXXX
90L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:


If anything tropical does form, the constant high pressure over the Southeast U.S. and Florida would prevent it from moving north.
The system should remain mostly a threat to Central America.
Too soon to know for sure, most of the GFS ensembles continue to lift it off to the east-northeast in similar fashion to Lenny. Anything is possible during a progressive fall pattern of troughs and Canadian high pressure building in behind those troughs. Should know more by the end of the week and into the weekend.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Who knows we may end up with something like this. Hurricane Gordon (1994):


That was one of my analogs. I believe I mention it three days ago. I am happy that invest 90L is leaving us rain. My city in the northern coast is finally receiving the rain it need for our crops.
Cold front has pushed south of the western parts of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. 90L is a part of the monsoon trof. Conventional wisdom says these systems take time to consolidate.

Per the 2:00 pm est CIMSS update, the shear which was a little further to the North yesterday has pushed down a little closer over the North Quad of 90L; might explain the very disorganized look at the upper levels; I think Dr. M is correct that we might not see a depression until the weekend:





Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:

Okay.. a hard question.

WHY are the SSTs in the Carribean two sigmas above the mean? Last year was easy, equatorial heating from El Nino. But this year??

Also what drives the flat spot in the seasonal increase curve between June and July?


Flat spot most likely due to the Caribbean Low-Level Jet.
am starting too thinking the NHC is jumping the gun here on 90L am all so starting too think that 90L may or may not be are next named storm here

Quoting 4. RitaEvac:

We need some more rain here in SE TX, hopefully front on Friday will bring a good line thru here, then plummeting to 40 degrees Sunday morning. First chill of the season coming

Good luck, it hasn't rained here in 4 weeks and only 0.49 since late September. We aren't expecting any rain the next 10 days either. I don't remember seeing anything like this. It would be interesting to do some data digging and find how rare this dryness is. This is usually is the driest time of year here, but this is way beyond the usual.
Quoting 47. weathermanwannabe:

Per the 2:00 pm est CIMSS update, the shear which was a little further to the North yesterday has pushed down a little closer over the North Quad of 90L; might explain the very disorganized look at the upper levels; I think Dr. M is correct that we might not see a depression until the weekend:








A cold front pushing to the SE across the NW Caribbean is driving up the shear values in the general area but shear should slacken through the weekend as the front stalls and dissipates. See extract below from the Discussion. The cold front is expected to affect the Cayman area later today/tonight.

"A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a cold front
reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front is
slowing down, and is expected to stall from northern Haiti to
eastern Honduras Thursday, then gradually become diffuse through
the weekend."
Riverside Municipal Airport

Looks like Fall-like temps have finally arrived....
Quoting 50. Jedkins01:


Good luck, it hasn't rained here in 4 weeks and only 0.49 since late September. We aren't expecting any rain the next 10 days either. I don't remember seeing anything like this. It would be interesting to do some data digging and find how rare this dryness is. This is usually is the driest time of year here, but this is way beyond the usual.
That's true we haven't had measurable rain since Matthew. Go figure a tropical system giveth and taketh away. Amazing how that works. We see this play out all too often. If it is indeed a La-Nina winter we should expect it to be dry and warm in the southeast, which may persist into March. I'm actually concerned about fire season.
The heat goes on

At last count, the U.S. had set 2820 record highs and 23 record lows for the month of November thus far, and this ratio is sure to become even more lopsided as the month rolls on. Dozens of record highs are likely to fall on Wednesday and Thursday from the Rockies to the East Coast, ahead of a sharp cold front plowing across the nation late this week. A blizzard watch was in effect for Thursday and Friday for parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, with winter storm watches extending from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. This week’s front will bring temperatures down to near or slightly below average in many areas. However, it now appears that temperatures will surge back well above average for at least the western and central U.S. during most of Thanksgiving week, while the East Coast states are in line for seasonably cool conditions. It’s quite possible that a number of U.S. locations will end up with their warmest November on record, including Lincoln, NE (see embedded tweet below from Ken Dewey at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln).






😯
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




That reluctant cold spot that's been over parts of Siberia for many weeks needs to shift to the North Pole region or North America. Those people living under that Polar air (nearly 40 below zero in places) think a new Ice Age has started, while almost all the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is warmer than normal.

Just interesting how that same area has continued to be so cold (for weeks) while everywhere else (including the north pole) has been very mild.
Quoting 55. GTstormChaserCaleb:




Our last measurable rain (.23") was on October 12th here in S.W. Florida (Ft. Myers). Anything not watered regularly (lawn, bushes, flowers) is dead.
Quoting 54. Patrap:

The heat goes on

At last count, the U.S. had set 2820 record highs and 23 record lows for the month of November thus far, and this ratio is sure to become even more lopsided as the month rolls on. Dozens of record highs are likely to fall on Wednesday and Thursday from the Rockies to the East Coast, ahead of a sharp cold front plowing across the nation late this week. A blizzard watch was in effect for Thursday and Friday for parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, with winter storm watches extending from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. This week’s front will bring temperatures down to near or slightly below average in many areas. However, it now appears that temperatures will surge back well above average for at least the western and central U.S. during most of Thanksgiving week, while the East Coast states are in line for seasonably cool conditions. It’s quite possible that a number of U.S. locations will end up with their warmest November on record, including Lincoln, NE (see embedded tweet below from Ken Dewey at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln).






😯
How's Asia

and Europe done during the past month?
Quoting 50. Jedkins01:


Good luck, it hasn't rained here in 4 weeks and only 0.49 since late September. We aren't expecting any rain the next 10 days either. I don't remember seeing anything like this. It would be interesting to do some data digging and find how rare this dryness is. This is usually is the driest time of year here, but this is way beyond the usual.


is "here" Tallahassee or Tampa?

One thing I remember from the mid 80s in Tallahassee is reliable long dry spells in spring and fall in Tallahassee.

Here in DC is usually well watered with precipitation very evenly distributed over the year, generally more but more variable in summer and less but more reliable in winter. We have had long dry falls and winters though. Fall 2000 AND Fall 2001 were very dry and the 2001 dryness persisted to spring 2002. That was the only winter the soil didn't soak at any time during the winter so there was no mud at all in the garden.. at a time when there is otherwise always mud. Spring/summer 2002 were on the dry side also but without extreme intense short droughts as occurred some other years (1997, 1999, 2007)
Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:



That reluctant cold spot that's been over parts of Siberia for many weeks needs to shift to the North Pole region or North America. Those people living under that Polar air (nearly 40 below zero in places) think a new Ice Age has started, while almost all the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is warmer than normal.

Just interesting how that same area has continued to be so cold (for weeks) while everywhere else (including the north pole) has been very mild.
I like to call it cold air displacement and the warm arctic is responsible for it
11 mths ago,

Giss animation
Five-Year Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2015

Visualizations by Lori Perkins on January 20, 2016


😯

This color-coded map in Robinson projection displays a progression of changing global surface temperature anomalies from 1880 through 2015. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red and lower then normal termperatures are shown in blue. The final frame represents the global temperatures 5-year averaged from 2011 through 2015. Scale in degree Celsius.

Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much.

The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists agreed with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty.

“Climate change is the challenge of our generation, and NASA’s vital work on this important issue affects every person on Earth,” said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. “Today’s announcement not only underscores how critical NASA’s Earth observation program is, it is a key data point that should make policy makers stand up and take notice - now is the time to act on climate.”

The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degree Celsius) since the late-19th century, a change largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere.

Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 15 of the 16 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Last year was the first time the global average temperatures were 1 degree Celsius or more above the 1880-1899 average.

Phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña, which warm or cool the tropical Pacific Ocean, can contribute to short-term variations in global average temperature. A warming El Niño was in effect for most of 2015.

“2015 was remarkable even in the context of the ongoing El Niño,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Last year’s temperatures had an assist from El Niño, but it is the cumulative effect of the long-term trend that has resulted in the record warming that we are seeing.”

Weather dynamics often affect regional temperatures, so not every region on Earth experienced record average temperatures last year. For example, NASA and NOAA found that the 2015 annual mean temperature for the contiguous 48 United States was the second warmest on record.
I
Quoting 58. PensacolaDoug:

How's Asia

and Europe done during the past month?

Insufficiently cold to bring down the global temperature. Thanks for asking.
C plus for effort.

😁
Quoting 54. Patrap:

The heat goes on

At last count, the U.S. had set 2820 record highs and 23 record lows for the month of November thus far, and this ratio is sure to become even more lopsided as the month rolls on. Dozens of record highs are likely to fall on Wednesday and Thursday from the Rockies to the East Coast, ahead of a sharp cold front plowing across the nation late this week. A blizzard watch was in effect for Thursday and Friday for parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, with winter storm watches extending from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. This week’s front will bring temperatures down to near or slightly below average in many areas. However, it now appears that temperatures will surge back well above average for at least the western and central U.S. during most of Thanksgiving week, while the East Coast states are in line for seasonably cool conditions. It’s quite possible that a number of U.S. locations will end up with their warmest November on record, including Lincoln, NE (see embedded tweet below from Ken Dewey at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln).






😯
That settles it. There is no going back now. May God have mercy on our souls. It's hot here also
Quoting 59. georgevandenberghe:



is "here" Tallahassee or Tampa?

One thing I remember from the mid 80s in Tallahassee is reliable long dry spells in spring and fall in Tallahassee.

Here in DC is usually well watered with precipitation very evenly distributed over the year, generally more but more variable in summer and less but more reliable in winter. We have had long dry falls and winters though. Fall 2000 AND Fall 2001 were very dry and the 2001 dryness persisted to spring 2002. That was the only winter the soil didn't soak at any time during the winter so there was no mud at all in the garden.. at a time when there is otherwise always mud. Spring/summer 2002 were on the dry side also but without extreme intense short droughts as occurred some other years (1997, 1999, 2007)



I was referring to Tallahassee, I live in the Tampa area from May to early August, and then from Mid December to New years. I'm in Tallahassee the rest of the time.

Spring is actually usually pretty wet here accept for May. Average rainfall in Tallahassee in March and April is a good bit higher than in D.C., and of course Summers are usually very wet. Fall is indeed usually the driest time of year here, but even still, it's exceedingly drier than average. Average precip is about 2-3 inches or so a month during the fall, so by climatology, we would have rainfall in the 3-6 inch range since Late September, but we've only had 0.49, all of which fell from a brief down pour in early October. Many places have had literally no rain at all in 6-7 weeks. Our half inch was actually lucky lol.

We haven't hit 80 degrees in a long time, over a week, though we were consistently well into the 80's and even 90's at times throughout October and even early into this month. Though this was due to anomalous ridging. I think we were close to record warmest October this year.
It's finally been seasonably cool the past several days. We'll be a bit warmer the next couple days out ahead of colder air by later this weekend. We should dip into the 30's for a few nights.
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Another way to look at it below. For what it's worth, today's current 80N record is a greater deviation from the mean than ANY previous spike recorded at anytime of year since DMI began tracking in 1956. Specifically, it's 114% greater than the previous record spike of December 2002.

Quoting 63. Misanthroptimist:


Insufficiently cold to bring down the global temperature. Thanks for asking.


You elitist. Do you really expect normal people to have a vocabulary containing words such as "global", "average" and "temperature"? Its best to convey what you mean with grunting noises and pointing. Don't pretend that everyone has at least a 3rd grade reading level. =P
Quoting 67. VibrantPlanet:


Another way to look at it below. For what it's worth, today's current heat spike is a greater deviation from the mean than ANY previous spike recorded at anytime of year since DMI began tracking in 1956. Specifically, it's 114% greater than the previous record spike of December 2002.







While trying to take my mind off political subjects, and while waiting for 90L to become something, I finally finished modelling the effects of filling Lake Chad (mainly on precipitation), and updated my blog. Next time, I'll try Lake Eyre. At least in the case of Lake Eyre, there is already a modelling study, done professionally with a global model. However, they omitted the effect of the lake having heat capacity. I can try my amateur model with heat capacity, and without heat capacity, to see the change.
METEO FRANCE is monitoring 90L... there is a chance it could behave somewhat like Lenny. Anyway it is not possible to know what it will decide to do at this time, and probably not before midweek next week.

Link

And... I want rain!
Everyone have a safe weather evening; gonna be an interesting week or two ahead as we teeter between potential blizzard conditions for some parts and record warm for others across Conus and North America in conjunction with whatever happens with 90L to the South as it gets pulled to the North as you can see with the current large scale synoptic flow...................It does look slightly like the face of doom with the two eyes in the corners at the top and the menacing nose pushing down into the Gulf trying to sniff out what 90L is cookin.........................



Boring ridge wants to ruin my hope :/ Like it did with Matthew (and look what the storm did to Haiti :/)
Quoting 58. PensacolaDoug:

How's Asia

and Europe done during the past month?
Howdy Doug...Both have large areas colder than the North Pole...Which is fricken backwards....pfft
Quoting 73. CaribBoy:

Boring ridge wants to ruin my hope :/ Like it did with Matthew (and look what the storm did to Haiti :/)
Keep wishing this one better be mine. The latest Euro and gfs are showing a landfall in Extreme northern Nicaragua or Eastern Honduras. The only thing that is different is intensity. Thankfully this system is bringing beneficial rains to my continue and it better continue.
Ah yes, it is nice to read about the weather again. :-) Don't get me wrong though, as someone who reads and doesn't post much at all, there were some great conversations in the last blog, so thanks to ALL for the continued food for thought and I'm glad everyone can be so passionate about their point of views. I do admit, there were a few times my cursor floated over the ignore link, but I reminded myself just as I had over the last few months... differences in opinions is no reason to lose a friend, and many of you post some incredible thought provoking stuff, so I'd hate to miss any of it!

My point you wonder? (as do I now that I think about it) Just keep in mind that not everyone can be painted with a broad brush, and you catch more flies with honey instead of vinegar... I used to be a climate denier until I bought a weather station so many years ago and hooked up with the site. In my opinion, I find it hard to ignore the temperature anomaly maps, and the situation with the ice caps, but I also will not jump all over someone for their own beliefs. What's the use... It's nearly impossible to change someone's mind once it's made up. In fact, firing barbs at them only strengthens their resolve. Keep posting your facts and your links and one by one, we'll all have informed opinions.

Anyway, hopefully this isn't a 3-day ban, although I never really post so would I even know? ;-p Keep up the good work ya'll, while I return to my seat at the back of the blog and continue to try to avoid being noticed. But before I do...

So this new GOES-R satellite is going to be stationed above the equator, right? As a novice on this type of thing, can they "drive" it to other locations for pictures?
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Who knows we may end up with something like this. Hurricane Gordon (1994):




I think we will be looking at a Paloma Paula Ida lili Fox type kind track to be honest
Quoting 63. Misanthroptimist:


Insufficiently cold to bring down the global temperature. Thanks for asking.


or, to put it another way, anybody see any negative numbers at the bottom of the image in #41?

it's 'nope', right? the answer is 'nope'?
Quoting 77. wunderkidcayman:



I think we will be looking at a Paloma Paula Ida lili Fox type kind track to be honest

I dont think it could do an ida but who knows its in a very unpredictable stage right now but lili shouldn't be an analog because it was a cape verde storm and had a more northerly track.
Quoting 73. CaribBoy:

Boring ridge wants to ruin my hope :/ Like it did with Matthew (and look what the storm did to Haiti :/)


This was never gonna go your way even if it did head ENE-NE it would go Jamaica cross Cuba/Haiti T&C then out to sea this I do think less likely though

Quoting 75. allancalderini:

Keep wishing this one better be mine. The latest Euro and gfs are showing a landfall in Extreme northern Nicaragua or Eastern Honduras. The only thing that is different is intensity. Thankfully this system is bringing beneficial rains to my continue and it better continue.


I don't think it will go into Nicaragua or Honduras but I do think the coast will see some stormy conditions I do think North then NE is where it will go NW Caribbean Cuba then Bahamas maybe if it isn't dead after it crosses Cuba

We shall see
Quoting 79. Weatherfan1013:


I dont think it could do an ida but who knows its in a very unpredictable stage right now


Don't tell me I'm just using from top 20 analogs for this system
I'm amused.

Quoting 80. wunderkidcayman:



This was never gonna go your way even if it did head ENE-NE it would go Jamaica cross Cuba/Haiti T&C then out to sea this I do think less likely though



I don't think it will go into Nicaragua or Honduras but I do think the coast will see some stormy conditions I do think North then NE is where it will go NW Caribbean Cuba then Bahamas maybe if it isn't dead after it crosses Cuba

We shall see


There's virtually no model support that takes it into the NW Caribbean.
. <----evidence of Russian hacking!!! =P
Subtropical Depression 01Q intensifies into Subtropical Storm Deni early this morning. Has now max sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central air pressure of 998 mbar. That's the 1st named storm on record during November month in this area.
Quoting 83. PensacolaDoug:


I'm amused.

A couple of years ago we had one of the coldest winters in decades here in the eastern United States. The Great Lakes had ice well into spring and in a couple of spots into late May. It snowed and sleeted and had an ice storm right to the Gulf Coast. There were afternoons in north Florida when the temperature did not get out of the low thirties. While it was so cold here it was warm in Asia and the AGW crew that populates this forum pointed it out over and over saying something to the effect that " yes it's cold here but look how warm it is in Asia and Europe!" I just want to point out that is what I did earlier, and got shouted down for it. I'm not afraid to speak my mind here and considering the other side just got their hat handed to them, other conservatives that frequent this site shouldn't be so shy about speaking out when the double standard is on display. Don't be afraid of these people. They lost. We won. I'll probably get banned for this post. I'll definitely get gang-flagged by all the people that want to shut down free speech. So what?



What really gets me is the continued ignorance on here concerning the election when people keep posting over and over again - - but Clinton won the popular vote so America wanted her in. These people have zero clue about the election and what it took for Trump to win. Clinton said it herself that the only way Trump can win the election is to sweep 5 key states. So what did he do? Trump had a strategy in which he spent virtually all of his time in those five states and dominated her ass. Thanks for the tip Mrs. Clinton! Have a nice life! Trump and his team did not care about the popular vote. If he did then he would have gone to California and New York, rallied millions of people, won the popular vote and lost the election. But he's smarter than that. The ignorance on here is laughable by those saying she won the popular vote therefore America wanted her President.
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Today was incredibly warm here in Denver it reached 80 degrees which is the warmest temperature in November on record and the low was the warmest as well at 57. More typical of June or July! With that in typical Colorado fashion snow is possible tomorrow here in Denver and temperatures dropping 40 degrees in 24 hours.
"Global" Warming. Not Regional Warming or Regional Cooling, which is more of a weather phenomenon, ever heard of sudden stratospheric warming? It happened during the winter of 2009-2010, as Doug alluded to, it also happened in the winter of 1977-1978 and 1988-1989 when the bird bath froze in Florida. It happens, but as you can see if you zoom out on the grand scale of things those events are far overshadowed by warm events, which are happening more often than the cold events. When you have ice melting in the Arctic during winter months that's a problem, ice is supposed to be gained during the winter not lost. Here is the effects sudden stratospheric warming has on the weather at the surface or troposphere:

"Although sudden stratospheric warmings are mainly forced by planetary scale waves which propagate up from the lower atmosphere, there is also a subsequent return effect of sudden stratospheric warmings on surface weather. Following a sudden stratospheric warming, the high altitude winds reverse to flow eastward instead of their usual westward. The eastward winds progress down through the atmosphere and weaken the jet stream, often giving easterly winds near the surface and resulting in dramatic reductions in temperature in Europe."
Quoting 91. kestrel68:

.

For the record, I did not modify my comment (#91), I'm assuming it was done by a mod. Used to be, comments could be removed by the powers that be (no problem with that) but could only be modified by the user posting the comment. Seemed to be a wise policy to me and I'm curious as to when (and why) that policy changed. Any mods care to comment?

Quoting 94. kestrel68:


For the record, I did not modify my comment (#91), I'm assuming it was done by a mod. Used to be, comments could be removed by the powers that be (no problem with that) but could only be modified by the user posting the comment. Seemed to be a wise policy to me and I'm curious as to when (and why) that policy changed. Any mods care to comment?


Lots of comments dissapearing lately. Maybe you need to follow it with a picture of a six headed monster.
Maybe someone is just typing in all of these comments from an underground bunker somewhere.

Seriously, another party changing comments even if to effectively delete them is really bad form.
Quoting 83. PensacolaDoug:



Hmmm...
Quoting 97. Bucsboltsfan:

.
WKC, well... :/
Quoting 95. Kenfa03:

Lots of comments dissapearing lately. Maybe you need to follow it with a picture of a six headed monster.

The only six headed monster I can think about is a hydra but i am not too sure about.
102. OKsky
Quoting 100. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Quoting 93. GTstormChaserCaleb:

"Global" Warming. Not Regional Warming or Regional Cooling, which is more of a weather phenomenon, ever heard of sudden stratospheric warming? It happened during the winter of 2009-2010, as Doug alluded to, it also happened in the winter of 1977-1978 and 1988-1989 when the bird bath froze in Florida. It happens, but as you can see if you zoom out on the grand scale of things those events are far overshadowed by warm events, which are happening more often than the cold events. When you have ice melting in the Arctic during winter months that's a problem, ice is supposed to be gained during the winter not lost. Here is the effects sudden stratospheric warming has on the weather at the surface or troposphere:

"Although sudden stratospheric warmings are mainly forced by planetary scale waves which propagate up from the lower atmosphere, there is also a subsequent return effect of sudden stratospheric warmings on surface weather. Following a sudden stratospheric warming, the high altitude winds reverse to flow eastward instead of their usual westward. The eastward winds progress down through the atmosphere and weaken the jet stream, often giving easterly winds near the surface and resulting in dramatic reductions in temperature in Europe."

It's a sad thought that the grand kids of our generation may not get experience what winter even feels like in the southeast.

The amount of warming that has occurred in the climate just since I was in junior high is scary. I think it's the feedback of the combined CO2 output of the whole world modernizing that is beginning impacting the atmosphere at a faster rate as apposed to past warming when it was primarily the west producing C02.
Quoting 100. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

.

"Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel) tweeted on Tuesday: “Caribbean waters are *supposed* to cool down by this point in the season but then again what’s “normal” nowadays?"

This is misleading, because it implies that western Caribbean cyclones - and strong ones at that - are unprecedented across this region in November?
well I guessed it would of been better than giving bans for something someone else is inciting
Quoting 84. Bucsboltsfan:



There's virtually no model support that takes it into the NW Caribbean.


Truth is that the models have no idea where this will go, assuming it develops. Anyone who pins their expectations on models before there is a closed low, especially this time of year when systems can meander anywhere as they please, is destined for disappointment. There is a reason why the NHC speaks of "meandering erratically" and so on during the month of November.
Quoting 105. KoritheMan:

"Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel) tweeted on Tuesday: “Caribbean waters are *supposed* to cool down by this point in the season but then again what’s “normal” nowadays?"

This is misleading, because it implies that western Caribbean cyclones - and strong ones at that - are unprecedented across this region in November?
they stay warm longer some seasons would have to compare years of data
Quoting 106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well I guessed it would of been better than giving bans for something someone else is inciting

So you do have the ability to modify other user's comments?

Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

they stay warm longer some seasons would have to compare years of data


Right, that's my point. I didn't like how he implied that it was somehow historically significant or whatever. His rhetoric just seemed weird.
Quoting 110. kestrel68:


So you do have the ability to modify other user's comments?


I never said that
I said what would you prefer a ban
Quoting 113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I never said that

Let's try a direct question then. Do you have the ability to modify comments other than your own?

for falling victim too someone else's inciting comments causing a response and derailing of the blog
keep it on topic and there would be no reason for any action simple you know just stick with the blog topic refrain from inciting the blog or blog members climate weather and other short comments to create a productive atmosphere
Quoting 118. Kenfa03:

Agenda?
everyone has one
Quoting 117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

keep it on topic and there would be no reason for any action simple you know just stick with the blog topic refrain from inciting the blog or blog members climate weather and other short comments to create a productive atmosphere

I'll take your evasion as a yes.

Quoting 118. Kenfa03:

Agenda?


I felt like he was passively blaming global warming for something that's completely natural. But that's just conjecture on my part, which is why I didn't flat out say that.
Has 90L been discontinued as an invest? I don't see any 00z updates on it.
90L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 122. HurricaneFan:

Has 90L been discontinued as an invest? I don't see any 00z updates on it.


No it's not discontinued.
90l looks squished a little elongated
front messing with 90L but the front should retro as kmam mention
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

front messing with 90L but the front should retro as kmam mention


All of this was forecast. 90L was never predicted to develop rapidly.
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

everyone has one


You as a mod are in effect a judge and should not have one
Why won't convection develop around 90? Is there a lack of upper air support for outflow?
SCIENCE

Pluto May Have Underground Ocean, Evidence Suggests
The ocean is likely a slushy one, hiding beneath Pluto’s heart-shaped central plain.
11/16/2016 04:23 pm ET




HOUSTON - Scientists have found evidence that tiny, distant Pluto harbors a hidden ocean beneath the frozen surface of its heart-shaped central plain containing as much water as all of Earth’s seas.

The finding, reported on Wednesday in two research papers published in the journal Nature, adds Pluto to a growing list of worlds in the solar system beyond Earth believed to have underground oceans, some of which potentially could be habitats for life.

Pluto’s ocean, which is likely slushy with ice, lies 93 to 124 miles (150 to 200 km) beneath the dwarf planet’s icy surface and is about 62 miles (100 km) deep, planetary scientist Francis Nimmo of the University of California, Santa Cruz said in an interview.

With its ocean covered by so much ice, Pluto is not a prime candidate for life, added Massachusetts Institute of Technology planetary scientist Richard Binzel, another of the researchers. But Binzel added that “one is careful to never say the word impossible.”

Liquid water is considered one of the essential ingredients for life.

The discovery was made through an analysis of images and data collected by NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft, which flew past Pluto and its entourage of moons in July 2015.

“It shows that nature is more creative than we are able to imagine, which is why we go and explore,” Binzel said. “We see what nature is capable of doing.”

Despite being about 40 times farther from the sun than Earth, Pluto has enough radioactive heat left over from its formation 4.6 billion years ago to keep water liquid.

“Pluto has enough rock that there’s quite a lot of heat being generated, and an ice shell a few hundred kilometers thick is quite a good insulator,” Nimmo said. “So a deep subsurface ocean is not too surprising, especially if the ocean contains ammonia, which acts like an antifreeze.”

Scientists made the discovery as they were trying to figure out why a 621-mile (1,000-km) wide impact basin known as Sputnik Planitia, which contains the curious heart-shaped region, was located in its present position near Pluto’s equator.

Computer models showed the basin likely filled with ice, which caused Pluto to roll over, cracking its crust. That could happen only if Pluto possessed a subsurface ocean, the analysis found.

New Horizons is on its way to another frozen world in the Kuiper Belt region of the solar system about 1 billion miles (1.6 billion km) past Pluto. A flyby of the object, known as 2014 MU69, is scheduled on Jan. 1, 2019.

(Reporting by Irene Klotz; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Will Dunham)
Quoting 26. oldmickey:

Just reading a post from the Weather Channel on FaceBook. The comment section is just amazing, one wonders where people get their "information".


They don't "get" information. They simply regurgitate what they read somewhere else with little understanding or comprehension. Most Americans are not that scientifically literate. Once you go beyond the basics you rapidly leave the realm of logic and reason and head into the realm hearsay and nonsense. Why do you think there are well populated sites espousing "free energy" and "guaranteed lottery winning strategies"?
The latest known major hurricane: Kate (1985) 21 November 06Z


Hard to respect someone who won't give an honest answer to a direct question.

I'm surprised that the Caribbean Sea has a pause in surface sea temperature rise in June and the first half of July. I'd thought that maximum insolation would keep temperatures moving up.
Quoting 105. KoritheMan:

"Michael Lowry (The Weather Channel) tweeted on Tuesday: %u201CCaribbean waters are *supposed* to cool down by this point in the season but then again what%u2019s %u201Cnormal%u201D nowadays?"

This is misleading, because it implies that western Caribbean cyclones - and strong ones at that - are unprecedented across this region in November?
I didn't get that implication. I took it as saying that water temperatures are unusually warm in the Caribbean. Which they are--having risen last week above their 30 year average peak in September.
Quoting 129. Snacker2:

Why won't convection develop around 90? Is there a lack of upper air support for outflow?


The trough to the north is actually providing good ventilation. But water vapor imagery shows a broad mid-level ridge injecting dry air into the circulation from the east. That'd be my guess.
137. OKsky
Quoting 121. KoritheMan:



I felt like he was passively blaming global warming for something that's completely natural. But that's just conjecture on my part, which is why I didn't flat out say that.


Correct me if I am reading this wrong, but this makes it look like its just a hair warmer than "normal". So you could be right.
Quoting 135. BaltimoreBrian:

I didn't get that implication. I took it as saying that water temperatures are unusually warm in the Caribbean. Which they are--having risen last week above their 30 year average peak in September.


It's the last part of his post specifically that made me wince.
Understood, Kori.
Quoting 128. nymore:



You as a mod are in effect a judge and should not have one


I am here to maintain a relative productive experience by all and over time the blog behavior determines disruptions which occur and allocated actions permitted to maintain the integrity of the blog there is no one single target I respect all and encourage good productive communications it is suppose to be a discussion of ideas regarding climate its effects and other weather phenomena that may and do occur

too make it simple

no slug fest
KOTG.
Quoting 137. OKsky:



Correct me if I am reading this wrong, but this makes it look like its just a hair warmer than "normal". So you could be right.



I don't know if he was talking about global warming or not, but his rhetoric wasn't aimless. That's for sure.
142. OKsky
Quoting 141. KoritheMan:



I don't know if he was talking about global warming or not, but his rhetoric wasn't aimless. That's for sure.


Im going down the rabbit hole of how these anomaly charts are created.

This one seems to support his statement. It also looks higher rez.
Can anyone ELI5 this for everyone?



Edit: and by "everyone" I mean "me" :)
why do you have to do that
The weather has been depressing, I need to eat cakes...
Quoting 145. CaribBoy:

The weather has been depressing, I need to eat cakes...
my weather is just about to get interesting lake effect is coming in 4 days lows will be reaching minus 4c snow machine is getting ready to cut in soon
Quoting 146. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my weather is just about to get interesting lake effect is coming in 4 days lows will be reaching minus 4c snow machine is getting ready to cut in soon


It's good to see the weather changing :)
90L


front is still there but it appears weaken and maybe just beginning the retro
Quoting 128. nymore:



You as a mod are in effect a judge and should not have one

That's both wrong and somewhere between highly unlikely and impossible. It is a mod's duty to moderate in an unbiased way (within the rules of the particular board), whether they have strong feelings or not about the subject matter or the individual. But strong feelings don't and shouldn't eliminate one from being a moderator, as long as the moderator acts fairly.
Quoting 134. BaltimoreBrian:
I'm surprised that the Caribbean Sea has a pause in surface sea temperature rise in June and the first half of July. I'd thought that maximum insolation would keep temperatures moving up.
Strong trade winds lead to SST cooling. Evaporation is usually cited on the blog as the cause.
OK! I thought the previous blog, btw, was very informative and produced a very high comment count.
Thanks, Bob & Jeff.
Guess it wasn't enough to get all the frustration out when I read the posts tonight.
A few may need a time out to take a time out and go outside for awhile.
And, really? Picking on a MOD is not a good idea!
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

front messing with 90L but the front should retro as kmam mention


yes
before computers use to read alot of books one was the auto bio or bio of christopher columbus. i remember on the third voyage them stuck in the sw. carib at the mercy of a storm. it was bad. rough seas lasted a week them floundering around. wonder if the storm was similar to the system currently spinning down there?
Quoting 140. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I am here to maintain a relative productive experience by all and over time the blog behavior determines disruptions which occur and allocated actions permitted to maintain the integrity of the blog there is no one single target I respect all and encourage good productive communications it is suppose to be a discussion of ideas regarding climate its effects and other weather phenomena that may and do occur

too make it simple

no slug fest
KOTG.


Personally I think that the blog improved greatly since the implementation of mods. I appreciate that you, Skye and others make that effort.
Good Morning; 90L is on the down-slide at the moment:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad low pressure area. This system has become
a little less organized since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while the low moves slowly and
erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Not much convection to help lower pressures................And dry air from the Gulf sliding down. The big ULL exiting the US East Coast, and deep front pushing into the Gulf is dominating the synoptic environment all the way down into the Caribbean. 90L might be toast by the weekend unless the sheer drops considerably IMHO.







Quoting 132. BaltimoreBrian:

The latest known major hurricane: Kate (1985) 21 November 06Z



Actually, the latest known major hurricane on record in the Atlantic was storm 13 in the 1934 season, reaching that intensity at 18Z November 23:
And now just awaiting the horror of the updated US Drought Map that will be issued around 8:30; if you smoke, don't throw your cigarette buts out of the window while driving through dry and wooded or pastured country roads or even in the grass median of the roads and highways and particularly in the SW including California and in the SE and Gulf Coast...............................



I'm surprised people are not saying that this is gunning for FL.
I don't expect 90 L could develop into something like TD or more
Ongoing torrential rains create crisis in Dominican Republic
The Daily Herald - Nov 17.
SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic--The Dominican Republic is facing a massive repair bill as torrential rains continue to wreak havoc across the country.
At least eight of the country's 31 provinces are under a state of emergency declared by President Danilo Medina, as his government grapples to cope with the unfolding crisis.
According to disaster official Jose Manuel Mendez, more than 20,000 people on the country's north coast have already been displaced amid the heavy rains that have pounded the country for more than two weeks. (...) The National Office of Meteorology of the Dominican Republic has warned that the rain is likely to continue through to the weekend. (...)
And unattended holiday bonfires and campfires are out of the question:

Image result for smokey bear images
Quoting 162. juracanpr1:

I don't expect 90 L could develop into something like TD or more


Kman noted yesterday that the front in the Gulf is/was forecasted to lift out later in the period to give 90L some breathing room but given how far down it has pushed, I am doubting the prospect of 90L recovering from the current squeeze play between the front and the East Coast ULL in the short term: not sure if the NHC long term 70% will pan out come Monday or Tuesday at this point.




And here it is; we are starting to look like parts of Africa and South America.......................................


Current U.S. Drought Monitor


Satellite Detects Human Contribution to Atmospheric CO2
NASA Earth Observatory, November 17, 2016
Never imagined that we would catch up to California in this region:

U.S. Drought Monitor forSoutheast

I will be in Atlanta for the Thanksgiving Holidays; baked Turkey this year instead of outdoor frying that we have done there for the past several years (I will miss dem fried birds this year). 

POSTED:NOV 15 2016 12:38PM EST

UPDATED:NOV 15 2016 04:05PM EST


 - Due to the ongoing drought and risk of wildfires, Governor Nathan Deal has banned the ignition of fireworks in much of Georgia.

By executive order, Deal expanded a Level 1 drought declaration across 110 of Georgia's 159 counties, stretching across northern Georgia and including metro Atlanta.

The National Weather Service is forecasting that the drought will continue at least through early next year.

The Tennessee Valley Authority has also issued a burn ban on its public lands, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Virginia.

Fire officials say the largest active wildfire in the South has now burned more than 23,000 acres in the north Georgia mountains -- an area larger than New York's Manhattan.

The U.S. Forestry Service says the Georgia blaze has now burned through more than half of the Cohutta Wilderness area and has crossed over the Conasauga River.

Fire managers say North Carolina's largest fire -- the Tellico Fire burning through the state's western mountains -- has charred about 13,700 acres, or about the same amount of land as the island of Bermuda.

The National Park Service has closed another section of the Appalachian Trail, which is now closed for several miles through parts of Georgia and North Carolina.

Series of decent windstroms ahead for Western Europe. First one due to a cold front is about to hit Germany tonight and tomorrow, second one (a secondary low, if I get this right) should develop on Sunday and ride up the British Channel. Others may follow. Uh, and I'll have to work this weekend at an exhibition. Wonder how many people will bother to visit with weather like this ...


Gusts tonight.


Gusts on Sunday. Source.

Storms cause damage across mid and west Wales
BBC News, 29 minutes ago

Current synopsis at Estofex.
Quoting 170. barbamz:

Series of decent windstroms ahead for Western Europe. First one due to a cold front is about to hit Germany tonight and tomorrow, second one (a secondary low, if I get this right) should develop on Sunday and ride up the British Channel. Others may follow. Uh, and I'll have to work this weekend at an exhibition. Wonder how many people will bother to visit with weather like this ...


Gusts tonight.

Gusts on Sunday. Source.

Storms cause damage across mid and west Wales
BBC News, 29 minutes ago

Current synopsis at Estofex.


Incoming Cf with line convection over England now, gust near Birmingham 135 km/h.
Well it's high time for some weather.
In the middle (water vapor) image, is that front just pushing dry air or is that smoke from the forest fires in the se US? Looks like SAL coming out of Africa?

Quoting 158. weathermanwannabe:

Not much convection to help lower pressures................And dry air from the Gulf sliding down. The big ULL exiting the US East Coast, and deep front pushing into the Gulf is dominating the synoptic environment all the way down into the Caribbean. 90L might be toast by the weekend unless the sheer drops considerably IMHO.








MIMIC-TPW clearly shows the vorticity gathering near Panama and Columbia, expelled from the northern parts of the basin where continental air has taken over. In addition another wave is approaching from the east which looks to join up. I was stationed with the CZ Met Team '72-'73 and this time of year s/b nearing the dry season. Gonna be a slight delay this year.
Quoting 171. cRRKampen:em>
Incoming Cf with line convection over England now, gust near Birmingham 135 km/h.
Well it's high time for some weather.

Sure, west drift from the Atlantic in full force, keeping the super cold air in Siberia in check for us.

Current airmasses with huge low Mirja in the north.


Current IR loop (updating).
Quoting 172. ToesInTheWater:

In the middle (water vapor) image, is that front just pushing dry air or is that smoke from the forest fires in the se US? Looks like SAL coming out of Africa?




It appears to be very dry air from the Continental South/SE US pushing down into the Gulf; the SAL from Africa has receded but there might be a little SAL and/or smoke around the SE US and Florida in the air..............The moon looked quite a bit orange as it emerged off of the Eastern horizon yesterday evening in North Florida:



176. elioe
Quoting 170. barbamz:



Warm air coming from the eastern flank of that latter low should raise temperatures above +5C on Monday. Not record-breaking at all, but very pleasant. Our streak of continuous below-freezing temperatures ended on Tuesday night, after 12 days. Many lakes have already ice cover, so now we are vulnerable to other cold streaks... but next one shouldn't come until beginning of December, so I'm very happy :)
Quoting 156. ChillinInTheKeys:



Personally I think that the blog improved greatly since the implementation of mods. I appreciate that you, Skye and others make that effort.

Indeed, the blog would be a mess without them...:)
Looking more likely now that 90L will bury itself into CA before becoming a significant storm, but as always the models can change.
Quoting 132. BaltimoreBrian:

The latest known major hurricane: Kate (1985) 21 November 06Z


Kate was impressive for the time of year....There were many storms I could have put in the avatar, but she was special..:)

Rare satellite picture of Hurricane Kate in the Florida Straits 11/19/85.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 174. barbamz:


Sure, west drift from the Atlantic in full force, keeping the super cold air in Siberia in check for us.
Current airmasses with huge low Mirja in the north.
..

Actually now is different from previous years, we're not looking at a Somerset-floods vigorous straight jet but a very wavy affair with big cut-offs and blocking patterns developing. The layout still keeps the west Siberian pool in check but coming winter I do expect some continental action for a change.
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