WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A Mild, Tranquil Election Day on Tap

By: Bob Henson 5:22 PM GMT on November 07, 2016

The weather will be doing its part to keep the mood positive when Americans go to the polls on U.S. Election Day, Tuesday, November 8. Temperatures should be near or above normal over nearly all of the contiguous 48 U.S. states, continuing a string of mildness that’s lasted for weeks in many locations. Freezing temperatures will be largely absent on Tuesday morning outside of the higher terrain of the Rockies and New England (plus most of Alaska, of course). Afternoon readings from the 40s to 60s Fahrenheit will prevail over most of the nation, quite reasonable for early November. The only precipitation of note will be some mostly light rains ahead of a fairly weak upper-level trough extending from Michigan to the Gulf Coast.

It doesn’t look like Tuesday’s weather will have a major impact on the national-level outcome. However, there are cases where inclement weather may have actually swung U.S. presidential races, according to a WU news article by freelance contributor Sami Grover. The rapid spread of early voting in many U.S. states is likely blunting the effect of weather on Election Day turnout, noted Grover.


Figure 1. Precipitation forecast for the six hours from 7:00 am to 1:00 pm EST Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as projected by the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Warmth by the numbers
As detailed by weather.com, a number of Midwestern locations could experience their latest first freeze of any year on record this year, including Minneapolis (Nov. 7), Des Moines (Nov. 13), and Detroit (Nov. 15). Here’s another telling illustration of how consistently mild the nation has been over the past several weeks: The preliminary total of U.S. daily record highs either tied or broken for the one-week period ending on November 4 was 887, while the corresponding number of daily record lows was a mere 1. Referring to the 887-to-1 ratio, independent meteorologist Guy Walton said: “Since cataloging record counts starting on 1/1/2000, this is the highest weekly ratio of daily highs to daily lows I have ever seen!” The numbers were almost as lopsided for the week ending November 7 (see Figure 2). Preliminary numbers typically grow a bit larger as late-reporting stations come in.


Figure 2. Preliminary data on U.S. records for the week ending November 7, 2016. The month to date has seen 1324 daily record highs set or tied, but only 7 daily record lows set or tied. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

As we discussed in a post last week, the biggest story of U.S. temperatures in 2016 is not the large number of daily record highs but the phenomenally small number of daily record lows--less than half as many as for any year on record since the 1920s, when enough data had accumulated to make such comparisons.

The absurdly consistent warmth has been especially evident across the South. As noted by weather.com’s Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman), a remarkable eight-day string of consecutive daily record highs began in Meridian, Mississippi, on October 28 and ended on November 4. The streak included a new all-time November high of 89°F on the 1st. Records in Meridian began in 1889. At the opposite end of the United States--Alaska--you’ll also find incredible mildness (relatively speaking). Readings on the Arctic Ocean coast at Barrow have been above average every day since September 15. The typical high and low in Barrow on November 7 are 9°F and -2°F, but as of Monday morning, Barrow had yet to dip below 13°F this entire autumn. We’ll have more on this fall’s amazing Arctic mildness later in the week.

Nationwide, at least 272 U.S. stations set or tied all-time monthly highs for November during the first seven days of the month. That’s a large chunk of the 860 monthly highs set or tied during the entire year up to November 7.

Will autumn arrive before winter?
Over the last several days, long-range computer model guidance has become increasingly insistent that a switch to much chillier weather could occur over the bulk of North America in about 10 to 15 days, perhaps kicked off with a very blustery Midwestern storm. This is at the outer edge of confidence in major pattern shifts, so we’ll have to see if the apparent trend holds water over the next few days. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for widespread record lows, but at this point even a shift toward near-normal temperatures would feel bracing.

Two killed as large tornado strikes near Rome, Italy
A massive, highly visible tornado injured dozens of people and startled many more in central Italy on Sunday evening (see embedded photo below). The twister struck around 6 pm local time near the coastal town of Ladispoli, about 20 miles west of central Rome and only about 10 miles northwest of the city’s international airport. Weather.com reported that one man was killed in Ladispoli by a cornice falling from a building, while another in Cesano, about 10 miles northeast of Ladispoli, was crushed by a falling tree. Dramatic video of the tornado can be found on the Facebook page Severe Weather Europe. Weaker tornadoes were reported on Sunday on the Canary Islands and the island of Sardinia.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Monday, November 7, 2016. Image credit: European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX).

The ESTOFEX project (European Storm Forecast Experiment) warned that more severe weather was possible Monday afternoon and evening across southern Italy east to Albania ahead of a strong, slow-moving upper-level trough. Ahead of the trough, jet-stream level winds of more than 100 mph were juxtaposed above relatively warm, moist air over the Tyrrhenian Sea. ESTOFEX noted the presence of very strong vertical wind shear resulting in storm-relative helicity (rotation) values of 400 to 1000 m2/s2, “which favors strong mesocyclones that can easily produce a (violent) tornado as well as large hail.” The juxtaposition of moist air from the Mediterranean and dry air from Africa is also a key factor in producing severe weather over the region, according to The Weather Guys (CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin-Madison). “Because these circumstances are most likely to get organized in the late fall, the limited tornado season that does occur in Italy occurs in October and November,” they write. “It would be interesting to know how many merchant vessels in the long history of Venice have gone down in such autumn storms.”

Tornadoes and other localized forms of wild weather are the focus of the American Meteorological Society’s 28th biennial Conference on Severe Local Storms, which kicked off Monday in Portland, OR. You can follow news from the meeting at the Twitter hashtags #SLS2016 and #SLS16. The agenda is online, with links to abstracts.

We’ll be back with a new post by Tuesday afternoon.

Bob Henson



From the windy top of the Grandfather Mountain
From the windy top of the Grandfather Mountain
Rainy Autumn Ride
Rainy Autumn Ride

Heat Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

watching the tropics just know there is at least one more worth designation. next one will be Otto
Thanks Mr. Henson...The weather may be tranquil, a public powder keg out there with this ugly and bitter election going on..Hope it is not too bad.
Quoting 296. VibrantPlanet:

A couple thoughts on the topics discussed above.

Yes, a slowing gulf stream will diminish the effects of global warming in places like the UK. My understanding is that on average, over the next 30 years, the slowing gulf stream will not make things cooler, only slow the rate of global warming induced heating in the UK relative to other areas in Europe. So it will still get warmer in the UK, just not nearly as much. They'll also likely be seeing greater temperature fluctuations and more powerful storms.

Increasing the fall/winter snow in higher latitudes is actually very bad for global warming. During fall/winter the angle of the sun is so low that the albedo cooling effect of the snow (reflecting sunlight into space) is quite minimal or non-existent. Rather the most powerful effect of the snow during fall/winter is to trap the heat in the earth, instead of letting it escape into the colder atmosphere. This extra heat in turn melts permafrost which releases more methane and CO2.

A key question, that is a very hot topic of research and debate, is what is driving the drastic changes in the Polar Vortex and jet stream. These changes are enabling our increasingly hot, moisture-laden atmosphere to create highly anomalous snowfall events - especially in Eurasia and to a lesser extent eastern US.

Hello V.P...I have a theory on what is happening with the jet stream and the Polar Vortex. Its long, but in a abbreviated form, now that the overall global temp has increased, the interaction between the hot and cold air masses are not quite as intense as they were a few decades ago. With less cold air, the warm air wins over the winter weather patterns faster than in the past. Arctic Outbreaks will gradually lose there punch compared to 20th Century winters. This along with the current increase in warming due to permafrost melt and continued C02 emissions, changing ocean currents, and deforestation, the Earths weather should become more violent, then start to lessen..If ocean currents were to change drastically over the next hundred years, it may slow the warming or add to it. There is no way to determine how the whole situation will evolve.
Thanks Bob.

"A Mild, Tranquil Election Day on Tap" for election day.

Well, maybe the weather will be tranquil and mild, but not sure the mood will be. ;-)
First rain here since Set 11th




😁👍
thanks for the lunch time read

the flip could be big we wait too see

Siberia is buried with a winters worth in a month and winter is yet too grab hold
Quoting 4. RickWPB:

Thanks Bob.

"A Mild, Tranquil Election Day on Tap" for election day.

Well, maybe the weather will be tranquil and mild, but not sure the mood will be. ;-)





RE-POST SINCE THE BLOG CHANGED OVER:

Quoting 272. OKsky:

Making denier claims about AGW while leaving out global avg temperatures is like claiming that Cubs lost the world series while never mentioning the actual score.



Fair enough. Lets take a look at two graphs (and no they are not doctored up versions taken off of some deniers website) which will give us both a macro and a micro scale perspective on the matter of global average temperature.

The first graph (the macro scale) is of the last 10,000 years. It shows us currently at a very recent uptick to about 0.45 C above the average they are using (presumably the 10000 year average). As you can see, this anomaly is something that has been well surpassed multiple times over the last 5,000 years and is far from unprecedented in that regard. You should also notice that the running trend (bold black line) shows no warming over the last 10,000 years and if anything, some minor cooling.

Graph 1: Link

The second graph (the micro scale) is of the last 10 years which, allows us to take a closer look at that very recent uptick I mentioned from graph 1. As you can see, especially if you take out the el nino years, there has been little if any warming over the last 10 years, meaning that this sharp uptick has now plateaued.

Graph 2: Link

I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.
Deep derp.👎😵
Thanks Mr. Henson. One of the things we have been noticing down here in the Southern tier of the US for several years now is the reality of basically skipping true "Spring" and moving right from from Winter temps over to summer-like temps by April and May (and March in some cases). 

Including your blog on this current warmth, we have also been experiencing, pun-intended, a polar opposite in recent years as well with a very mild Fall, often all the way through November, and not experiencing any freezing days until December and often not until January (after Christmas).

Can't say the same for my Daughter in Mass the past several years but the very warm pattern for the Southern tier of Conus, through Spring and Fall, is pretty evident and remarkable the past several years.


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database




GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)


The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) is an estimate of global surface temperature change. Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using current data files from NOAA GHCN v3 (meteorological stations), ERSST v4 (ocean areas), and SCAR (Antarctic stations), combined as described in our December 2010 publication (Hansen et al. 2010). These updated files incorporate reports for the previous month and also late reports and corrections for earlier months.

😎
Report : Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change - Anticipating surprises.
National Research Concil - 2013.

The rate of global climate change now underway is at least an order of magnitude faster than any warming event in the last 65 million years (Barnosky et al., 2003; Blois and Hadly, 2009; Blois et al., 2013; Diffenbaugh and Field, 2013) - p.110.

Here's the abstract from Diffenbaugh and Field, 2013.
Quoting 8. RichardBLong:

RE-POST SINCE THE BLOG CHANGED OVER:

Quoting 272. OKsky:

Making denier claims about AGW while leaving out global avg temperatures is like claiming that Cubs lost the world series while never mentioning the actual score.



Fair enough. Lets take a look at two graphs (and no they are not doctored up versions taken off of some deniers website) which will give us both a macro and a micro scale perspective on the matter of global average temperature.

The first graph (the macro scale) is of the last 10,000 years. It shows us currently at a very recent uptick to about 0.45 C above the average they are using (presumably the 10000 year average). As you can see, this anomaly is something that has been well surpassed multiple times over the last 5,000 years and is far from unprecedented in that regard. You should also notice that the running trend (bold black line) shows no warming over the last 10,000 years and if anything, some minor cooling.

Graph 1: Link

The second graph (the micro scale) is of the last 10 years which, allows us to take a closer look at that very recent uptick I mentioned from graph 1. As you can see, especially if you take out the el nino years, there has been little if any warming over the last 10 years, meaning that this sharp uptick has now plateaued.

Graph 2: Link

I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.

In your first graph, the "present" is 1950. We've warmed quite a bit since then. Even though there is an arrow pointing to the temperature in 2004, it is woefully inadequate to represent the state of play in 2016.

Your second graph is from one (non-peer-reviewed and with unknown adjustments at this point) data set that disagrees with every other major data set, including the other satellite data set. So, it may be ignored.
Quoting 3. hydrus:

Hello V.P...I have a theory on what is happening with the jet stream and the Polar Vortex. Its long, but in a abbreviated form, now that the overall global temp has increased, the interaction between the hot and cold air masses are not quite as intense as they were a few decades ago. With less cold air, the warm air wins over the winter weather patterns faster than in the past. Arctic Outbreaks will gradually lose there punch compared to 20th Century winters. This along with the current increase in warming due to permafrost melt and continued C02 emissions, changing ocean currents, and deforestation, the Earths weather should become more violent, then start to lessen..If ocean currents were to change drastically over the next hundred years, it may slow the warming or add to it. There is no way to determine how the whole situation will evolve.

Hi Hydrus, thanks for all your informative and engaging comments on this blog. : ) I too think that eventually Arctic outbreaks will lose their punch. That will happen because as the Arctic continues loosing its cool, the temperature and pressure gradients that drive the intensity of storms are also going bye bye. Of course, how long this will take we don't know, but the trends are abundantly clear. The arctic is absolutely getting blasted with insane amounts of oceanic heat - with currents advecting anomalous heat from the Pacific and Atlantic, as well as the 100s of zettajoules of heat attained through the increased insolation associated with arctic ocean ice melt. Now add on top of that the highly amplified atmospheric Rossby waves that are mixing lower latitude air and moisture into the arctic, and you have all you need to bake the cake, so to speak.
Quoting 16. Misanthroptimist:


In your first graph, the "present" is 1950. We've warmed quite a bit since then. Even though there is an arrow pointing to the temperature in 2004, it is woefully inadequate to represent the state of play in 2016.

Your second graph is from one (non-peer-reviewed and with unknown adjustments at this point) data set that disagrees with every other major data set, including the other satellite data set. So, it may be ignored.


Not sure what you mean by "the present is 1950". As far as graph 2 goes, its a graph of data, not a research paper so I don't know where peer review comes in.

Specifically, this data comes from the UAH satellite temperature dataset, developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It was one of the first global temperature datasets developed from satellite information and has been used as a tool for research into surface and atmospheric temperature changes. The dataset is published by John Christy et al. and formerly jointly with Roy Spencer. (This was taken from Wikipedia)

Anyhow, here's the author of that graph website: Link

Apparently he is a former NASA Scientist and believes in AGW as much as anyone so I don't think it is biased.
Quoting 18. RichardBLong:



Not sure what you mean by "the present is 1950". As far as graph 2 goes, its a graph of data, not a research paper so I don't know where peer review comes in.

Specifically, this data comes from the UAH satellite temperature dataset, developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It was one of the first global temperature datasets developed from satellite information and has been used as a tool for research into surface and atmospheric temperature changes. The dataset is published by John Christy et al. and formerly jointly with Roy Spencer. (This was taken from Wikipedia)

Ok, the UAH record :
UAH atmospheric temperatures prove climate models and/or surface temperature data sets are wrong
Skeptical Science.
The most likely reason that UAH data shows less warming than expected is that the UAH data set is biased low. See link above to learn more.

And by the way, this topic is adressed in detail, including the use of this dataset (UAH) by deniers to make a case against man-made global warming in that great book, "A Vast Machine - Computer Models, Climate Data, And the Politics of Global Warming" by Paul N. Edwards. Needless to say, they lost that case (at least in the scientific arena).
Quoting 18. RichardBLong:



Not sure what you mean by "the present is 1950". As far as graph 2 goes, its a graph of data, not a research paper so I don't know where peer review comes in.

Specifically, this data comes from the UAH satellite temperature dataset, developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It was one of the first global temperature datasets developed from satellite information and has been used as a tool for research into surface and atmospheric temperature changes. The dataset is published by John Christy et al. and formerly jointly with Roy Spencer. (This was taken from Wikipedia)

Anyhow, here's the author of that graph website: Link

Apparently he is a former NASA Scientist and believes in AGW as much as anyone so I don't think it is biased.


"Dr. Spencer is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall Institute, a right-wing conservative think tank on scientific issues and public policy. He listed as an expert for the Heartland Institute, a libertarian American public policy think tank. Dr. Spencer is also listed as an expert by the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP), a global warming "skeptic" organization "

He is so biased he has his own page dedicated to him on skeptical science, lol.
Quoting 18. RichardBLong:



Not sure what you mean by "the present is 1950". As far as graph 2 goes, its a graph of data, not a research paper so I don't know where peer review comes in.

Specifically, this data comes from the UAH satellite temperature dataset, developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It was one of the first global temperature datasets developed from satellite information and has been used as a tool for research into surface and atmospheric temperature changes. The dataset is published by John Christy et al. and formerly jointly with Roy Spencer. (This was taken from Wikipedia)

Anyhow, here's the author of that graph website: Link

Apparently he is a former NASA Scientist and believes in AGW as much as anyone so I don't think it is biased.

Christy and Spencer are both climate revisionists. Link
Quoting 8. RichardBLong:

Graph 1: Link

Graph 2: Link

I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.


The image in your first link has an inset image that shows just how rapidly the current warming trend is happening. What does the global temperatures over the past 10,000 have to do with what is happening now? Did any of the past deviations in the temperature baseline somehow violate any of The Laws of Physics? Why would you think that the warming event that is happening now would violate The Laws of Physics? The Laws of Physics reveal to us that when you add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere that this will have a warming influence on the global climate. Your desires to defy The Laws of Physics so that we may continue to burn fossil fuels and for our practice of doing so to not have a warming influence on the global climate will not change what is happening. Once you have persuaded The Laws of Physics to conform to your desires then you might have something to work with. Until this would happen, brace yourself.

The image in the second link is an image by Dr. Roy Spencer, an actual climatologist. The use of the image is also known as cherry picking. The image only looks at the lower atmospheric warming and only uses satellite data. Did you not know that the satellite data is the most adjusted data set in use and that the satellites do not directly measure temperature? When did out planet consist only of the lower atmosphere? Our oceans do not exist? Our oceans are no longer the largest heat sink on this planet?

All that I have seen you do is to attempt to rehash old arguing points that have long ago been discussed and discarded many times. I would welcome you to present us with a well-reason thought that you can support with math and with scientific evidence. You deny AGW simply because you cannot persuade the scientific observations being made to adhere to your flawed ideologies and your emotional comfort zone.

You ask us to challenge ourselves and to respond to the content of your comment. I do not feel obligated to read your comments and then to simply agree with your comments because this is what would keep you well within your emotional comfort zone. I have what might be some shocking news for you. Just as the truth can be painful to know, Science does not always bring us good news. The Laws of Physics, The Laws of Chemistry and The Laws of Thermodynamics do not exist to keep you well within your emotional comfort zone. I ask you to now challenge yourself to attempt to understand all of this.
Blob watching: Is that a tropical wave approaching the Windwards"

Of course, the CMC wants to develop it.



Lockheed satellite system aids tornado, sun storm warnings

Weather forecasters can now provide about 15 minutes of warning before a tornado hits an area, but an advanced satellite detection system developed in Palo Alto could increase that to 30 minutes.

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper, developed by aerospace giant Lockheed Martin, is scheduled to go into orbit aboard a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite.

...The Advanced Technology Center, Lockheed’s Palo Alto outpost, has also developed an advanced solar storm detection system that will provide earlier warnings of electromagnetic waves emanating from the sun that could disrupt Earth’s communications systems and electrical grid.

Both instruments will be aboard each of four weather satellites that will watch Earth’s Western Hemisphere in orbit about 22,500 miles above ground. The launch is scheduled for Nov. 19 from Cape Canaveral...

Link
I wonder if the vorticity east of the Windwards is what the GFS uses to form the system in the southern Caribbean.



Pretty cool

Euro kind of shows something in about a week.

Well atleast there is some sort of agreement in the models







Also seeing very good agreement by all the models of a strong MJO pulse and Kelven wave coming into Caribbean at same time

Well we may indeed get something in the W Caribbean
come on now........
Quoting 30. wunderkidcayman:

Well atleast there is some sort of agreement in the models







Also seeing very good agreement by all the models of a strong MJO pulse and Kelven wave coming into Caribbean at same time

Well we may indeed get something in the W Caribbean
crazy how warm things are
33. vis0
BTW scan this image link first i'm getting some Russian like spy links onto it NO JOKE SERIOUSLY hence not linked actively.  URL / server seems to be official but there are 6 other images that i was more suspicious of that i did not include THAT is where i think somethings up, not in server but as to popular story AD[vertising] ons.

so why post it?, cause its weird and might be telling of what's to come if not over many states maybe a deep thin plunge of cold...PLUS hoping no one else posts the images in case it does have some weird spy crumb meant to cause problems from within. Also why i did not link the URL and its why below in comment.


Was going to type who wants to have a snow ball fight when i first saw story 2 hrs ago but had several weird  compu'r activities then noticed mashables title so too late for that jestjab.

CREDIT:: http://mashable.com/2016/11/06/giant-snowballs-rus sia-winter-weather/#.Vkrpxa_25q1
Here is just 1 image:: ...i think keeper has a few snowballs in keepers future. Since keeper also pointed out that historically colder Siberia = colder Northern tier of America ~~~?

Huh? whats that washi115 wants to change retirement plans and head to Siberia?.




As you read reason  ABOVE open JPG  in secure browesr. (already asked as to URL just change the text code to create after https the "://"   yes TWI add the sad duck bill after HTTPS.


http://i.amz.mshcdn.com/8AN-tp60hM_dqHdk92JJyY4kV 3g=/1200x630/https%3A%2F%2Fblueprint-api-productio n.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Fstory%2Fthumbnail%2 F27024%2F456d20e8dddd431f898dacd4c9d33480.jpg
Quoting 8. RichardBLong:



I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.


Posting the same old fur balls that have been cleaned up off the carpet over and over again, doesn't make them smell any better.

Quoting 32. 19N81W:

crazy how warm things are


The preliminary total of U.S. daily record highs either tied or broken for the one-week period ending on November 4 was 887, while the corresponding number of daily record lows was a mere 1. Referring to the 887-to-1 ratio, independent meteorologist Guy Walton said: “Since cataloging record counts starting on 1/1/2000, this is the highest weekly ratio of daily highs to daily lows I have ever seen!”
Svalbard residents evacuated ahead of 'extreme' storm
The Local (Norway), 7 November 2016, 16:42 CET 01:00
Residents in parts of Longyearbyen were evacuated on Monday and several roads were closed ahead of predicted heavy rains in the Svalbard archipelago in the heart of the Norwegian Arctic.
"This is a type of extreme weather we are not accustomed to in Svalbard, and we are therefore uncertain how this will turn out in Longyearbyen. In collaboration with avalanche experts from NVE [the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, ed.] we have therefore decided to evacuate residents in flood and landslide prone areas in Longyearbyen. A number of roads will also be closed," Svalbard District Governor Kjerstin Askholt said. ...

More see link above.

Mild in Iceland, Snow in Scandinavia
Iceland Review, 5 hours ago
Today, the temperature has risen to 17C (63F) in Iceland, while Norway and Sweden have been subject to sub-zero temperatures and snowfall. Unseasonably warm weather is forecast throughout this week. ...


Low west of Svalbard and associated cloud (Source)


(Click to enlarge). Accumulated rain in Europe until Tuesday according to German weather model ICON (source weatheronline.uk). Most rainfall in the south across the Mediterranean into the Balkans (see as well the blog entry with the warnings from ESTOFEX) but also in the upper North Atlantic/Norwegian Sea. Swalbard is the little purple spot at the upper rim of the map.
Quoting 33. vis0:

BTW scan this image link first i'm getting some Russian like spy links onto it NO JOKE SERIOUSLY hence not linked actively. URL / server seems to be official but there are 6 other images that i was more suspicious of that i did not include THAT is where i think somethings up, not in server but as to popular story AD[vertising] ons.

so why post it?, cause its weird and might be telling of what's to come if not over many states maybe a deep thin plunge of cold...PLUS hoping no one else posts the images in case it does have some weird spy crumb meant to cause problems from within. Also why i did not link the URL and its why below in comment.


Was going to type who wants to have a snow ball fight when i first saw story 2 hrs ago but had several weird compu'r activities then noticed mashables title so too late for that jestjab.

CREDIT:: http://mashable.com/2016/11/06/giant-snowballs-rus sia-winter-weather/#.Vkrpxa_25q1
Here is just 1 image:: ...i think keeper has a few




READ ABOVE open in secure browesr.

http://i.amz.mshcdn.com/8AN-tp60hM_dqHdk92JJyY4kV 3g=/1200x630/https%3A%2F%2Fblueprint-api-productio n.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Fstory%2Fthumbnail%2 F27024%2F456d20e8dddd431f898dacd4c9d33480.jpg










siberiantimes

Link

everything is safe scanned by MacAfee
A few clarifications about the current situation in Svalbard. (Edit: about what was told in comments of earlier blog post. Not about what barbamz told in the comment she managed to publish while I was writing this comment.)

Not all of Longyearbyen was evacuated. 140 inhabitants have been evacuated and no further evacuations are needed. Precipitation totals of 100 mm or more are expected over mountainous areas in the vicinity of Longyearbyen, but the town itself should only receive 30 - 50 mm. Situation is compounded by sustained winds between 35 and 40 miles per hour.


This map shows the evacuated areas and closed roads, all in the southern part of the town. The sea is to the north, and airport is to the northwest. Seems that many road closures are due to river flooding. Two evacuated areas are the on the slopes of surrounding hills/mountains, perhaps they are expecting landslides or avalanches.
is the seed bank safe
One of the key predictions of hypothesis , was an increase in extreme precipitation events, what is going on in Siberia now is clear proof of that very thing.

Districts like Abyisky and Srednekolymsky have faced five months of snow in just four weeks.

Link
Very cold set up..

Quoting 40. RobertWC:

One of the key predictions of hypothesis , was an increase in extreme precipitation events, what is going on in Siberia now is clear proof of that very thing.

Districts like Abyisky and Srednekolymsky have faced five months of snow in just four weeks.

Link
its because of the open water in the arctic its really a large vast area but too some it would seem small
the effects have been large and will continue till its covered in ice to stop the ocean effect from occurring the area in red should all ready be ice covered but its not







“As the world gathers in Morocco for the historic first meeting under the Paris agreement – called “COP22” but now also “CMA1” – it does so with the unprecedented involvement of corporate interests who have fought climate action around the world, funded climate change denial and whose fundamental interest is in extracting and burning as much fossil fuel as possible…..
representatives of companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Peabody, BP, Shell and RioTinto will have unquestioned access to most discussions in Marrakech, will be called upon for advice and will be walking the corridors and holding private discussions with countries that are trying to move the world to stop consuming the products those companies have based their businesses on….
Jesse Bragg from Corporate Accountability International says it is clear those groups are driven by a profit motive and not by the desire to curb carbon emissions, and so have a conflict of interest.”

Link
42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

Exactly and the open water East of Greenland.

Like thousands of white cannonballs dumped on the beach, you think these have to be manmade, perhaps part of some sculpture exhibition. But the giant snowballs are entirely natural, although the sight has not been witnessed here in living memory.
It was ten days ago that the villagers of Nyda, just above the Arctic Circle, started noticing the phenomenon. Some are the size of tennis balls. Others almost as large as a basketball.
Local resident Ekaterina Chernykh said: 'We have them only in one place. It's as if someone spilled them. They are all of different sizes, from tennis balls to volleyball.


Link

NASA Small Satellites Set to Take a Fresh Look at Earth
NASA, Nov 07, 2016, 14:39 ET
WASHINGTON, Nov. 7, 2016 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Beginning this month, NASA is launching a suite of six next-generation, Earth-observing small satellite missions to demonstrate innovative new approaches for studying our changing planet.
These small satellites range in size from a loaf of bread to a small washing machine and weigh from a few to 400 pounds. Their small size keeps development and launch costs down as they often hitch a ride to space as a "secondary payload" on another mission's rocket - providing an economical avenue for testing new technologies and conducting science. ...


Among them:
CYGNSS - the Cyclone, Global Navigation Satellite System - will be NASA's first Earth science small satellite constellation. Eight identical satellites will fly in formation to measure wind intensity over the ocean, providing new insights into tropical cyclones. Its novel approach uses reflections from GPS signals off the ocean surface to monitor surface winds and air-sea interactions in rapidly evolving cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons throughout the tropics. CYGNSS, led by Chris Ruf at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, is targeted to launch on Dec. 12 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. ...

More about CYGNSS:
http://www.nasa.gov/cygnss
The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) will probe the inner core of hurricanes to learn about their rapid intensification.



Good night from Germany. Best wishes for the election day and fresh heads with sensible thoughts for the voters!
14th ave eielson rd fairbanks alaska


Temperature:
10 F
Dewpoint:
7 F
Relative Humidity:
87%
Wind Speed:
2 MPH
Max Wind Direction:
SW
Quoting 23. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The image in your first link has an inset image that shows just how rapidly the current warming trend is happening. What does the global temperatures over the past 10,000 have to do with what is happening now? Did any of the past deviations in the temperature baseline somehow violate any of The Laws of Physics? Why would you think that the warming event that is happening now would violate The Laws of Physics? The Laws of Physics reveal to us that when you add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere that this will have a warming influence on the global climate. Your desires to defy The Laws of Physics so that we may continue to burn fossil fuels and for our practice of doing so to not have a warming influence on the global climate will not change what is happening. Once you have persuaded The Laws of Physics to conform to your desires then you might have something to work with. Until this would happen, brace yourself.

The image in the second link is an image by Dr. Roy Spencer, an actual climatologist. The use of the image is also known as cherry picking. The image only looks at the lower atmospheric warming and only uses satellite data. Did you not know that the satellite data is the most adjusted data set in use and that the satellites do not directly measure temperature? When did out planet consist only of the lower atmosphere? Our oceans do not exist? Our oceans are no longer the largest heat sink on this planet?

All that I have seen you do is to attempt to rehash old arguing points that have long ago been discussed and discarded many times. I would welcome you to present us with a well-reason thought that you can support with math and with scientific evidence. You deny AGW simply because you cannot persuade the scientific observations being made to adhere to your flawed ideologies and your emotional comfort zone.

You ask us to challenge ourselves and to respond to the content of your comment. I do not feel obligated to read your comments and then to simply agree with your comments because this is what would keep you well within your emotional comfort zone. I have what might be some shocking news for you. Just as the truth can be painful to know, Science does not always bring us good news. The Laws of Physics, The Laws of Chemistry and The Laws of Thermodynamics do not exist to keep you well within your emotional comfort zone. I ask you to now challenge yourself to attempt to understand all of this.


What does the global temperatures over the past 10,000 have to do with what is happening now? Right now so many of you are claiming that this is some sort of crisis or an unprecedented occurrence and what not. The 10000 year graph shows that it is clearly not. I never said anything about laws of physics.

At the risk of redundancy, please allow me to repeat myself:

Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.

Strong signal on the EURO and GFS ensembles for our possible Caribbean next week. This could be the Atlantic's grand finale of 2016.


Quoting 44. RobertWC:

42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

Exactly and the open water East of Greenland.

Like thousands of white cannonballs dumped on the beach, you think these have to be manmade, perhaps part of some sculpture exhibition. But the giant snowballs are entirely natural, although the sight has not been witnessed here in living memory.
It was ten days ago that the villagers of Nyda, just above the Arctic Circle, started noticing the phenomenon. Some are the size of tennis balls. Others almost as large as a basketball.
Local resident Ekaterina Chernykh said: 'We have them only in one place. It's as if someone spilled them. They are all of different sizes, from tennis balls to volleyball.


Link


I have seen them before its the coming in and going out of the water and it contains chunks of ice and the rolling effect from the water rolling in and out creates them and smooths them out like that I think it has happen in the grt lakes area before and I seen it in conception bay newfoundland when a boy and the first of the pack ice moves down in late winter early spring sometimes it so strong that the ice lifts out of the sea and towers along the shore but ya got to get a gale force on shore flow to shove the sea ice in
From the windy top of the Grandfather Mountain (BoazR)

Wunder if the haze in the distance on the left side of this photo isn't from the Nantahala National Forest Fires. They've closed a popular section of the Appalachian Trail. A running crown fire was spotted which is unheard of in this area. USDA is calling it a historic fire season there.
Quoting 18. RichardBLong:



Not sure what you mean by "the present is 1950". As far as graph 2 goes, its a graph of data, not a research paper so I don't know where peer review comes in.

Specifically, this data comes from the UAH satellite temperature dataset, developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It was one of the first global temperature datasets developed from satellite information and has been used as a tool for research into surface and atmospheric temperature changes. The dataset is published by John Christy et al. and formerly jointly with Roy Spencer. (This was taken from Wikipedia)

Anyhow, here's the author of that graph website: Link

Apparently he is a former NASA Scientist and believes in AGW as much as anyone so I don't think it is biased.
Quoting 47. RichardBLong:



What does the global temperatures over the past 10,000 have to do with what is happening now? Right now so many of you are claiming that this is some sort of crisis or an unprecedented occurrence and what not. The 10000 year graph shows that it is clearly not. I never said anything about laws of physics.

At the risk of redundancy, please allow me to repeat myself:

Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.



I've already shown that your first link is woefully inadequate to do anything much. With the data forwarded to 2016, the problem becomes apparent. To the thoughtful, it's a bit terrifying. Most people know that the Earth's human population is a...bit larger than it was during the HCO, the last time since homo sapiens evolved that temperatures might have been this warm. We are rapidly moving past the HCO temperatures into uncharted territory. It is pretty unlikely that we can sustain our civilization under the conditions that we are creating.

Your selective use of one data set for the current data is mere cherry-picking. It is non-representative of the data according to any other data set. It's method for processing the satellite data is (at this writing) both secret and not-peer-reviewed. It doesn't measure temperature at the Earth's surface. And finally, it should be noted that satellites don't really measure the temperature at all. Sat temperatures are really a model, not a measurement.

I hope the mods will act appropriately the next time that you claim a lack of substance by those responding to the tripe in your post.
Quoting 47. RichardBLong:



What does the global temperatures over the past 10,000 have to do with what is happening now? Right now so many of you are claiming that this is some sort of crisis or an unprecedented occurrence and what not. The 10000 year graph shows that it is clearly not. I never said anything about laws of physics.

At the risk of redundancy, please allow me to repeat myself:

Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.




You suck at picking graphs.
btw, this is why the arrow pointing at 2004 is waay above that black plot you are so proud of.....not that you were actually wondering.

"Because of the limitations of data sampling, each curve in the main plot was smoothed (see methods below) and consequently, this figure can not resolve temperature fluctuations faster than approximately 300 years."

Link
Thanks for the beautiful voting conditions, Oh and thanks for the updates.....
Quoting 52. OKsky:



You suck at picking graphs.
btw, this is why the arrow pointing at 2004 is waay above that black plot you are so proud of.....not that you were actually wondering.

"Because of the limitations of data sampling, each curve in the main plot was smoothed (see methods below) and consequently, this figure can not resolve temperature fluctuations faster than approximately 300 years."

Link


Yes I understand how the graph works and I see that the 2004 that is way above the end of the black line……That is why they have a box blowing up that last 25 years or so to show us that more clearly. Yes the date ends in 2004 (couldn’t find one more recently, can you?) and then my second link picked up where that one left off with a gap of about 3 years showing the recent plateau.
Quoting 42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its because of the open water in the arctic its really a large vast area but too some it would seem small
the effects have been large and will continue till its covered in ice to stop the ocean effect from occurring the area in red should all ready be ice covered but its not






It's the same thing as lake effect snow around the Great Lakes. Open water and frigid air.
Quoting 47. RichardBLong:



What does the global temperatures over the past 10,000 have to do with what is happening now? Right now so many of you are claiming that this is some sort of crisis or an unprecedented occurrence and what not. The 10000 year graph shows that it is clearly not. I never said anything about laws of physics.

At the risk of redundancy, please allow me to repeat myself:

Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.



Hard to say anything about the graph (10,000 year graph) you linked without knowing exactly what is plotted on it: information you did not provide. Going to the appropriate Wikipedia page, we find:

"The main figure shows eight records of local temperature variability on multi-centennial scales throughout the course of the Holocene, and an average of these (thick dark line). The data are for the period from 10000 BC to 2000 AD, which is from 12000 BP to the present time. The records are plotted with respect to the mid 20th century average temperature, and the global average temperature in 2004 is indicated."

So, the colored lines represent local proxy-based temperature records. The heavy black line represents an average of the local records and would best correspond to the modern average global temperature record. Notice that the anomaly for 2004 is well above the average temperature anomaly at any point over the past 20,000 years. Also, I believe that the 2016 anomaly is about 0.25C above 2004. In the context of the graph, the rate of increase of the temperature anomaly over the past 16 years is really quite stunning.

Quoting 50. Skyepony:

From the windy top of the Grandfather Mountain (BoazR)

Wunder if the haze in the distance on the left side of this photo isn't from the Nantahala National Forest Fires. They've closed a popular section of the Appalachian Trail. A running crown fire was spotted which is unheard of in this area. USDA is calling it a historic fire season there.


Lots of fires in southeast U.S.
Quoting 54. RichardBLong:



Yes I understand how the graph works and I see that the 2004 that is way above the end of the black line%u2026%u2026That is why they have a box blowing up that last 25 years or so to show us that more clearly. Yes the date ends in 2004 (couldn%u2019t find one more recently, can you?) and then my second link picked up where that one left off with a gap of about 3 years showing the recent plateau.


Your 2nd link was throughly debunked in comment 19.
Someone else is going to have to play "wack-a-derp" with this dude... its boring now.

Edit: Also.. these "points" you bring up are extremely stale. The pages I am finding that specifically address them are 4 years old. You have had 4yrs to do a simple google search.... what has been stopping you?
"It is pretty unlikely that we can sustain our civilization under the conditions that we are creating."

Not in its present form, but we're not going away. After all, we are the most adaptable animal known. We live in the arctic, the tropics, under the sea and in space. Where we can't mitigate we'll adapt, like in my home town KEYW which is hardening its services, raising its base elevation, seeing to its infrastructure and emergency services.

My theoretical interest is what happens when winter ice becomes scarce in the Arctic Ocean. Think of the amount of heat lost by the open water, like a radiator open to outer space. Then think of the snowfall accumulations in the shoreline zone. Now think of the absence of true arctic outbreaks in the Midwest. What happens to the climate of North America?
Quoting 57. pingon:



Lots of fires in southeast U.S.

Yep...Been breathing that for a few days.
Quoting 59. jimijr:

"It is pretty unlikely that we can sustain our civilization under the conditions that we are creating."

Not in its present form, but we're not going away. After all, we are the most adaptable animal known. We live in the arctic, the tropics, under the sea and in space. Where we can't mitigate we'll adapt, like in my home town KEYW which is hardening its services, raising its base elevation, seeing to its infrastructure and emergency services.

My theoretical interest is what happens when winter ice becomes scarce in the Arctic Ocean. Think of the amount of heat lost by the open water, like a radiator open to outer space. Then think of the snowfall accumulations in the shoreline zone. Now think of the absence of true arctic outbreaks in the Midwest. What happens to the climate of North America?

I, too, highly doubt that this is an extinction event for the human race. However, the loss of life is likely to be appalling.

As for the Arctic...what if that heat is trapped by clouds, as seems likely enough at least part of the time? We already see record snow in Asia, November rain in Svalbard(!), and that's just with the reduction we see now --which is substantial (record low for this time of year) but a long way from ice-free. I'll have to leave the weather-effects speculation to others who are more adept at that than me.
Quoting 58. OKsky:



Your 2nd link was throughly debunked in comment 19.
Someone else is going to have to play "wack-a-derp" with this dude... its boring now.

Edit: Also.. these "points" you bring up are extremely stale. The pages I am finding that specifically address them are 4 years old. You have had 4yrs to do a simple google search.... what has been stopping you?


1.) There may be a difference of opinion about the 2nd links author but nothing was debunked. Here's another graph that shows the same plateau from a different source of data that you may find more accurate.

Link

Again, take out the el ninos and what do you have......a plateau.

2.) What points do you mean? They are still as relevant as they always have been.

3.) Your need to call me a Derp is amusing to me personally but some may find that terminology offensive. Perhaps the moderator should consider that as well.
Quoting 48. HurricaneFan:

Strong signal on the EURO and GFS ensembles for our possible Caribbean next week. This could be the Atlantic's grand finale of 2016.



yes CMC model is also hinting at something down there.
62. RichardBLong

Here's graph for you ..............

Arctic Temperatures
Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North


Link

If you think there's a "plateau" I've got a condo in Aleppo I'd like sell you.

Aqua/MODIS
2016/306
11/01/2016
04:20 UTC
Fires in eastern China and Russia

Link
Quoting 41. hydrus:

Very cold set up..




The 850 freezing line down to nearly Tampa would be remarkable, especially in light of how anomalously warm it has been.

The amount of warmth and lack of rain has been scary here. We've had almost no rain since September 23.


Quoting 62. RichardBLong:



1.) There may be a difference of opinion about the 2nd links author but nothing was debunked. Here's another graph that shows the same plateau from a different source of data that you may find more accurate.

Link

Again, take out the el ninos and what do you have......a plateau.

2.) What points do you mean? They are still as relevant as they always have been.

3.) Your need to call me a Derp is amusing to me personally but some may find that terminology offensive. Perhaps the moderator should consider that as well.

Again, you provide a link to a graph without any description of the contents. Also, if you're going to present data, your best bet is using the primary source. Folks like Bob Tisdale can put their own "spin" on things that fundamentally alter the data without a clear/any justification for the manipulation. Such is the case with the graph you linked. If we do go back to the primary source, NASA in this case, you're going to be hard pressed to sell your claim of a "plateau" in temperatures:




Quoting 59. jimijr:

"It is pretty unlikely that we can sustain our civilization under the conditions that we are creating."

Not in its present form, but we're not going away. After all, we are the most adaptable animal known. We live in the arctic, the tropics, under the sea and in space. Where we can't mitigate we'll adapt, like in my home town KEYW which is hardening its services, raising its base elevation, seeing to its infrastructure and emergency services.

My theoretical interest is what happens when winter ice becomes scarce in the Arctic Ocean. Think of the amount of heat lost by the open water, like a radiator open to outer space. Then think of the snowfall accumulations in the shoreline zone. Now think of the absence of true arctic outbreaks in the Midwest. What happens to the climate of North America?
we will get too see what the dinosaurs saw weather wise and live in a similar climate as them
Quoting 62. RichardBLong:



1.) There may be a difference of opinion about the 2nd links author but nothing was debunked. Here's another graph that shows the same plateau from a different source of data that you may find more accurate.

Link

Again, take out the el ninos and what do you have......a plateau.

2.) What points do you mean? They are still as relevant as they always have been.

3.) Your need to call me a Derp is amusing to me personally but some may find that terminology offensive. Perhaps the moderator should consider that as well.
mods won't do anything if your supporting climate change agenda...trust me
60. hydrus

I never grow tried of the Aqua, and the Terra images, got a link for that fire shot ? I want to pass it along.

Here's one of the Great Salt Lake today, hard to believe we can do this ( The railroad causeway crossing the lake ) :

Link
Go to 270towin.com and create your own electoral vote map. Then post your map on my blog. Be fun to see who gets closest! No submissions after 6 p.m. EST November 8th.
Quoting 64. RobertWC:



Oh, there are a few plateaus in that graph. ;)

The climatological plateau below 245 K. Last winter's plateau near 250 K. Just now it seems, that a plateau for the coming winter is forming near 260 K. If this trend of "plateaus" continues, the Arctic would be ice-free through the winter of 2018-2019.
Quoting 48. HurricaneFan:

Strong signal on the EURO and GFS ensembles for our possible Caribbean next week. This could be the Atlantic's grand finale of 2016.



For sure.
Quoting 66. Jedkins01:



The 850 freezing line down to nearly Tampa would be remarkable, especially in light of how anomalously warm it has been.

The amount of warmth and lack of rain has been scary here. We've had almost no rain since September 23.



Would not write that off as model derp either..I suspect that with the new patterns, this is a feasible occurrence. Record cold temps will dwindle as winters go by, very cold air will make it far south earlier in the season..jmo.
Quoting 70. RobertWC:

60. hydrus

I never grow tried of the Aqua, and the Terra images, got a link for that fire shot ? I want to pass it along.

Here's one of the Great Salt Lake today, hard to believe we can do this ( The railroad causeway crossing the lake ) :

Link
Pingon posted that. This site has the true colors...Link
Quoting 59. jimijr:

"It is pretty unlikely that we can sustain our civilization under the conditions that we are creating."

Not in its present form, but we're not going away. After all, we are the most adaptable animal known. We live in the arctic, the tropics, under the sea and in space. Where we can't mitigate we'll adapt, like in my home town KEYW which is hardening its services, raising its base elevation, seeing to its infrastructure and emergency services.

My theoretical interest is what happens when winter ice becomes scarce in the Arctic Ocean. Think of the amount of heat lost by the open water, like a radiator open to outer space. Then think of the snowfall accumulations in the shoreline zone. Now think of the absence of true arctic outbreaks in the Midwest. What happens to the climate of North America?


Winter ice will not become scarce unless the atmosphere goes into a mode where poleward heat transport greatly increases. Radiative warming from C02 plus water vapor plus methane is nowhere near enough to put them in a positive heat balance at near freezing/melting surface temperatures. A polar vortex WELL away from the pole centered over Asia could do that but I don't see that as likely any decade soon. Meanwhile even with an ice free arctic ocean we still have snow covered Canada and Siberia and they will be the dominant sources of Arctic air from November to April as they are now.

The biggest change so far has been the vanishing of the source of Arctic air over the Arctic Ocean ice pack in September because.. there ain't much of an ice pack left in September any more. So no Arctic air anywhere in the Arctic until mid to late October when it starts forming over the continents. The effect of this on the Siberian and North American Arctic coasts is dramatic and overwhelms the normally large weather fluctuations up there. Every early to mid Fall until two weeks after the Arctic Ocean refreezes is going to be above normal, way above normal or way way above normal now.. Every year.
That link at 70 -

Just East of the lake are the Unita Mountains they are the only East / West mountain range in lower 48. I know this, because in May 1979, I was drilling seismic shot holes on their West flank at over 10,400 feet. That winter it had snowed over 2 feet on the lower slopes, on October 2nd.
This image today shows only snow at the very highest peaks, and the Wasatch behind Salt Lake City have zero snow. This means, Park City, etc. have no base for the up coming season. And the farmers that need the this runoff have have near zero in next spring's water bank. This is a really remarkable image.
The snow flakes back then were the size of cotton balls from Walmart. They were nothing like the ones I had ever seen before.

Those day's are gone forever, over a long time ago.
Steely Dan

Been shop vacuming the rain flooded garage since 5 pm here.

We needed rain bad but we got 3 inches unless than 90 minutes under the areal flood advisory.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
432 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016

Discussion...rain has been slowly increasing in coverage through
the day. First rain band impacted the MS Gulf Coast and quickly
dumped over an inch of rain near Gulfport. As the day wore on
another band of showers and embedded thunderstorms began to develop
along and south of the southshore and has expanded north through the
afternoon. The have been a few spots that have seen some pretty good
rain already with Audubon Park over 3 inches and just under 2 inches
at msy. However the large swath of rain southwest of the area has
really struggled to persist as it has moved into the area.

Looks like a good portion of the area will at least see some rain
over the next 24-36 hrs but how much is the bigger question. Concern
isn't necessarily from a heavy rain standpoint but more if a few
places will get anymore than a couple hundredths. Another weak
disturbance will move through overnight and early tomorrow. Moisture
is already increasing and pws jumped from 0.6 to 1.18 from last
night to this morning and will likely continue to rise through the
night. The issue is how much rain penetrates inland and especially
over nwrn portions of the County Warning Area. A weak sfc low will develop over the
northwestern Gulf with an inverted trough draped across the area.
This will aid in support for showers and a few thunderstorms
especially along and just to the southeast of the inverted trough.
The highest pws will also be in that location while northwestern
portions of the County Warning Area could see pws almost half an inch lower. The
reason for that appears to be some mid lvl drying where h7 winds
will be out west in that area. With that what ever rain falls across
areas north and west of btr could be fairly light even though the
pops will still be near 70 and 80% (wouldn't be surprised if this
area remained mostly rain free).

By Wed the mid lvl trough will continue to elongate and the base
will eventually break off and become a closed low over Mexico. The
trough will push east of the region leaving this area under weak
ridging which will try to build south down the lower MS valley over
the southwest closed low. This will keep things dry Wed night and
through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.

Next system to impact the region looks like late this weekend as
the southwest low lifts into the Southern Plains putting the region
back under southwest flow aloft Sunday. /Cab/

&&


Quoting 62. RichardBLong:




Yeah, about that plateau...it doesn't exist:


It's an artifact of UAH's secret, non-peer-reviewed, modeled interpretation of IR reflectivity in the lower troposphere. It disagrees with the other data sets and perhaps physics.
Quoting 76. georgevandenberghe:



Winter ice will not become scarce unless the atmosphere goes into a mode where poleward heat transport greatly increases. Radiative warming from C02 plus water vapor plus methane is nowhere near enough to put them in a positive heat balance at near freezing/melting surface temperatures.


Atmospheric heat transport is not necessarily needed to cover any heat loss. For each square kilometer, there is typically some ten gigajoules of heat in the water column, that would have to get released before the water can reach freezing point.

And regarding the huge snowfalls associated with an ice-free wintertime Arctic... It could be possible for higher elevations in northern parts of Sakha (Yakutia), Chukotka and Alaska to have some transient glaciation during this century.
I think the mood is far from positive, most people are not too happy with congress, who ever wins the Presidential race, half the country will be very bitter.
Quoting 77. RobertWC:

That link at 70 -

Just East of the lake are the Unita Mountains they are the only East / West mountain range in lower 48. I know this, because in May 1979, I was drilling seismic shot holes on their West flank at over 10,400 feet. That winter it had snowed over 2 feet on the lower slopes, on October 2nd.
This image today shows only snow at the very highest peaks, and the Wasatch behind Salt Lake City have zero snow. This means, Park City, etc. have no base for the up coming season. And the farmers that need the this runoff have have near zero in next spring's water bank. This is a really remarkable image.
The snow flakes back then were the size of cotton balls from Walmart. They were nothing like the ones I had ever seen before.

Those day's are gone forever, over a long time ago.
Steely Dan



Ah, yes, the Uinta. The only forest fire I ever fought that got SNOWED OUT. 1984, I think. Pretty cool place, actually. Beautiful meadows, northern Rocky Mtn. Lodgepole pine, moose, and lots of salamanders.
In some Anglo-Saxon calendars, 7 November is considered to be the first day of winter - 'Winter's Day'



Well I suppose we'll find out whether America goes to hell in a hand basket tomorrow night. Here's to hoping civil war and nukes aren't going off by late February.
Quoting 84. BaltimoreBrian:

In some Anglo-Saxon calendars, 7 November is considered to be the first day of winter - 'Winter's Day'






I guess before the climate changed, the British isles were pretty wintry by now.
So fellas, is our pleasantly named global warming denier SomethingBexaggerated still upsetting the laws of physics with repetitive fallacies? Yes? Hmmm. OK, lets change the subject: That big cold and nearly cut off low headed south to Bermuda has a low shear environment. It might eventually go warm core.
Quoting 85. Jedkins01:


Well I suppose we'll find out whether how America goes to hell in a hand basket tomorrow night. Here's to hoping civil war and nukes aren't going off by late February. Edited for accuracy. :) :(
KRAL Riverside Airport,

Going to toasty for voting day...
Quoting 59. jimijr:

"It is pretty unlikely that we can sustain our civilization under the conditions that we are creating."

Not in its present form, but we're not going away. After all, we are the most adaptable animal known. We live in the arctic, the tropics, under the sea and in space. Where we can't mitigate we'll adapt, like in my home town KEYW which is hardening its services, raising its base elevation, seeing to its infrastructure and emergency services.

My theoretical interest is what happens when winter ice becomes scarce in the Arctic Ocean. Think of the amount of heat lost by the open water, like a radiator open to outer space. Then think of the snowfall accumulations in the shoreline zone. Now think of the absence of true arctic outbreaks in the Midwest. What happens to the climate of North America?


Yes, modern humans have proven to be very adaptable to nearly every region of the planet. Modern humans are also the only species of human that has not yet gone extinct. What you fail to realize is that even though modern humans have proven to be quite adaptable it is also true that modern humans depend on other plant and animal species for our survival. I will make a long story short. Should enough species become extinct that we depend on, either directly or indirectly, then modern humans will become extinct as well.

Your understanding of how the oceans and the atmosphere interact with each other needs further refining. A quick study on The Laws of Thermodynamics would aid in your understanding these interactions better. I am not a genius. I am not a scholar. I am not a scientist. I believe that if I can understand the basics of these interactions then you should have no trouble in doing so.

BTW, we do not live under the sea and we do not live in outer space. We visit these places for short periods of time, but we do not live in these places.
Quoting 62. RichardBLong:



1.) There may be a difference of opinion about the 2nd links author but nothing was debunked. Here's another graph that shows the same plateau from a different source of data that you may find more accurate.

Link

Again, take out the el ninos and what do you have......a plateau.

2.) What points do you mean? They are still as relevant as they always have been.

3.) Your need to call me a Derp is amusing to me personally but some may find that terminology offensive. Perhaps the moderator should consider that as well.


There was not anything that I was trying to outright debunk concerning the second link. I stated that it is cherry picking the data.

When you say that should we remove the El Nino events then there would be a plateau in the temperature data are you also saying that the La Nina events no longer exist? The ENSO does not create nor does it destroy heat energy. The ENSO is a product of the heat content that exists in the Pacific Ocean.
Should you not have already cast your vote for the candidates running in the November 8, 2016 election cycle then I encourage all to do so. This is the only way that you have to leg to stand on when you gripe about who is in office. ;)
Cold and clear at Dixville Notch, NH, 24 F with a light wind from the north. In 2012 their vote tied at 5 apiece for Obama and Romney. This year they had just 8 voters: 4 for Hillary Clinton, 2 for Donald Trump, 1 for Gary Johnson, and 1 write-in for Mitt Romney.

Hart's Location NH--in 2012 Obama 23, Romney 9, Gary Johnson 1
In 2016 Clinton 17, Trump 14, Gary Johnson 3, Bernie Sanders (write-in) 2, John Kasich (write-in) 1.

Millsfield, NH Trump 16, Clinton 4, Sanders 1. In 2012 it was Romney 16, Obama 5.

Total for all 3 towns: Donald Trump 32, Hillary Clinton 25, Gary Johnson 4, Bernie Sanders 3, Mitt Romney 1, John Kasich 1. 66 votes in all.

For comparison, in 2012 in the same 3 towns Obama got 33 votes and Romney got 30.
99.9% of all species that ever lived are extinct. As far as we know, we are the only species that were able to write about how great we are.
I here that, no rain here since 10/11. Getting dry!

Quoting 66. Jedkins01:



The 850 freezing line down to nearly Tampa would be remarkable, especially in light of how anomalously warm it has been.

The amount of warmth and lack of rain has been scary here. We've had almost no rain since September 23.



Quoting 86. Jedkins01:



I guess before the climate changed, the British isles were pretty wintry by now.


Well, it is -1 C' tonight. But it feels nice, as is clear and not humid. Last years winter was well mild though. My daughter, who is normally very acclimated to cold, was complaining of being chilly. I told her, it was a very hot, long summer though, and she'll be re-acclimated in a few weeks! Last many winters have been mild though, to me anyway? LOL
97. vis0

Quoting 94. Grothar:

99.9% of all species that ever lived are extinct. As far as we know, we are the only species that were able to write about how great we are.
or 99.99% of all species that ever lived are extinct. As far as we know, we
are the only species that were able to write about how great we were
A tweetery of psephologists to keep you informed through election day and election night:

Nate Cohn


Nate Silver

Dave Wasserman

Harry Enten

Daniel Nichanian
Severe weather across Albania.
Tiranë, Albania
Link
A bigger-picture-weather-map across Mediterranean.
Quoting 81. elioe:

And regarding the huge snowfalls associated with an ice-free wintertime Arctic... It could be possible for higher elevations in northern parts of Sakha (Yakutia), Chukotka and Alaska to have some transient glaciation during this century.

My bottom Dollar against it.
BTW, South Africa appears an even better place to be than Finland or Canada, Alaska ;P

Yes, until purpose learn to use spell check, we are clearly the most advanced.

Edit: porpoise

Quoting 94. Grothar:

99.9% of all species that ever lived are extinct. As far as we know, we are the only species that were able to write about how great we are.
104. elioe
Some outdoor dog cages in Longyearbyen got smacked.



As far as I understand from Norwegian, evacuees may possibly return, when situation is assessed in afternoon. No human injuries were reported. And the dogs in those cages were neither harmed.
a tropical wave is slowly moving into the leewards the next system once designated would be named Otto
106. MahFL
A cool 59F here in Orange Park this am.
yep its low 60s this morning. crazy walking around i only saw one house in our whole neighborhood that had their windows open other than us. frightened or just pure lazy? nothing like fresh air.
35F behind Darlington Raceway Darlington, SC. Frost. First hard freeze of season looks like Saturday night/Sunday morning. Hopefully that is the end of the behemoth mosquitoes that came up here with Matthew.

Quoting 107. islander101010:

yep its low 60s this morning. crazy walking around i only saw one house in our whole neighborhood that had their windows open other than us. frightened or just pure lazy? nothing like fresh air.
Good Morning Folks; lots of precip around the Atlantic but nothing that is organized and a few drops of rain for the parched Tri-State AL/TN/GA Region but not even close towards putting any dent whatsoever in the regional drought:





U.S. Drought Monitor forSoutheast
It's mild alright, 53° here in Chicago suburbs at 8 a.m.
Here is a picture of two maples losing their leaves at a different rate. The Maple on the right has a squirrel's nest in the middle.
This looks fun...
54° now. Light rain. Overcast. I'll take my umbrella (or not) when I walk over to the polls in the library, 1 1/2 blocks from my house.
Current

Picked up over 3 inches yesterday between 4 and 6 pm...after no rain for 44 days.



Quoting 81. elioe:



Atmospheric heat transport is not necessarily needed to cover any heat loss. For each square kilometer, there is typically some ten gigajoules of heat in the water column, that would have to get released before the water can reach freezing point.

And regarding the huge snowfalls associated with an ice-free wintertime Arctic... It could be possible for higher elevations in northern parts of Sakha (Yakutia), Chukotka and Alaska to have some transient glaciation during this century.


Summer heating is not enough to counter fall and winter radiative heat loss. Additional heat has to be transported in. A single polar vortex locked over Central Siberia (or less likely, Hudson Bay) could do it if that ever becomes the dominant pattern.
luckily it wont happen
Quoting 112. HurricaneFan:

This looks fun...

Quoting 74. hydrus:

Would not write that off as model derp either..I suspect that with the new patterns, this is a feasible occurrence. Record cold temps will dwindle as winters go by, very cold air will make it far south earlier in the season..jmo.


The first is a virtual certainty, the second is possible but not at all certain.
so why would colder air get farther south?
Quoting 118. georgevandenberghe:



The first is a virtual certainty, the second is possible but not at all certain.
Thanks all for responding to my 'adaptability' post. I agree, more training in the air-sea interaction would be useful for me but have retired after 40 years in the field so it isn't easy. While still active I did find Garstang & Fitzjarrold's "Observations of the surface-atmosphere interaction in the Tropics" to be indispensable but says nothing about the arctic does it. I lived in Duluth MN for a while and I do know what happens when cold air hits warm water so I'm just thinking of lake-effect on a grand scale. One respondent made a good point about arctic air masses -- they don't exactly originate over the ocean, do they. There's a thousand miles of muskeg between our northern border and the sea which acts as a source region.

I guess basically I have faith in our future. We're taking action to address our many vulnerabilities and we have many resources at our disposal.

I really like this blog since I discovered it this summer.
121. elioe
Quoting 116. georgevandenberghe:



Summer heating is not enough to counter fall and winter radiative heat loss. Additional heat has to be transported in. A single polar vortex locked over Central Siberia (or less likely, Hudson Bay) could do it if that ever becomes the dominant pattern.


Eventually yes, but Arctic has enough heat in store to remain ice-free for decades. Also an oceanic current on the order of 10^7 m³/s coming from Atlantic could provide the necessary heat.
Quoting 119. 19N81W:

so why would colder air get farther south?


Waviness and stagnancy of jet stream waves increase.
I wouldn't exactly say 'colder air farther south' though. Air of Arctic origin may penetrate father south in some snaps but that air itself has warmed more than global average so actual temperature results are rather dissappointing. The process does not seem to cause any marked increase in the number of cold records. Whereas the warmer air penetration much further north does give rise to avalanches of heat records.
good luck too all that have voted today i am happy that this will all soon be over and done with
Quoting 115. Patrap:

Picked up over 3 inches yesterday between 4 and 6 pm...after no rain for 44 days.






Help is on the way for your garage. It would be nice to have one on standby.

Quoting 107. islander101010:

yep its low 60s this morning. crazy walking around i only saw one house in our whole neighborhood that had their windows open other than us. frightened or just pure lazy? nothing like fresh air.


Some of each, mostly just lazy, easier to switch on the AC then cry about the bill later...
Quoting 115. Patrap:

Picked up over 3 inches yesterday between 4 and 6 pm...after no rain for 44 days.






Be glad it (44 days with no rain) didn't happen in the middle of summer, or the situation would of been much dire.
Quoting 121. elioe:



Eventually yes, but Arctic has enough heat in store to remain ice-free for decades. Also an oceanic current on the order of 10^7 m³/s coming from Atlantic could provide the necessary heat.


But the annual cycle of freezing and thawing leaves a layer of relatively fresh water on the surface of the Arctic Ocean at the end of the summer melt. That low density layer inhibits overturning, thus reduces the energy available to prevent freezing at the end of the melt season. The result is a larger fraction of first year sea-ice, which is thinner and thus melts more quickly during the following melt season. but, the maximum extent isn't going to be reduced nearly as much as the minimum extent.
Went to vote at 6:45 this morning and was back by 7:30. New Polling place for me this time. Last few times it was at the New animal shelter. This time it was at a retirement home and closer to where I live. Only 30-40 people in line. It didn't take long to get it done. Another sticker for the front of the old Windows 95 Desktop I use for a monitor stand.
61.0°F as of 8:03AM Forecast 93°@KRAL
Quoting 122. cRRKampen:


Waviness and stagnancy of jet stream waves increase.
I wouldn't exactly say 'colder air farther south' though. Air of Arctic origin may penetrate father south in some snaps but that air itself has warmed more than global average so actual temperature results are rather dissappointing. The process does not seem to cause any marked increase in the number of cold records. Whereas the warmer air penetration much further north does give rise to avalanches of heat records.
Direct north to south flow associated with sharp kinks in the polar jet can bring cold air from polar regions directly south rapidly. This means that if there are cold temp records to be broken, most of them would be further south than in previous decades...jmo
Quoting 130. hydrus:

Direct north to south flow associated with sharp kinks in the polar jet can bring cold air from polar regions directly south rapidly. This means that if there are cold temp records to be broken, most of them would be further south than in previous decades...jmo


Although I've argued in general against this being a certain or even likely result, I think it did happen, a lot, in th 1980s, the warmest decade of the 20'th century (until the 1990s eclipsed it), and also the decade with the most arctic outbreaks by far compared with others. The 1990s arctic outbreaks were not as frequent although 1994 produced several extremely intense ones.
Quoting 130. hydrus:

Direct north to south flow associated with sharp kinks in the polar jet can bring cold air from polar regions directly south rapidly. This means that if there are cold temp records to be broken, most of them would be further south than in previous decades...jmo

Yep. Think of the recent terrible cold spell in SE Asia, was it early this year or so.
Quoting 119. 19N81W:

so why would colder air get farther south?



Jet stream becomes more wavy with more meridional heat transport poleward and cold transport equatorward. Not
a certainty but yes it's plausible. There is a lot of low frequency variability in synoptic scale eddy heat transport from decade to decade with another period of "waviness" in the cold 1960s and I hesitate to say "it's gotta be warming and that's what warming is doing to us"
More Thanksgiving doom on the GFS (for entertainment only)
Quoting 134. EmsiNasklug:


Yep. Think of the recent terrible cold spell in SE Asia, was it early this year or so.


Also look at the extreme cold in South China in 2008 (the year after the Actic Ocean mostly melted out
for the first time BTW)
Quoting 112. HurricaneFan:

This looks fun...


GFS develops it, too.
Quoting 112. HurricaneFan:

This looks fun...


Are you talking about the storm in the northeast? THAT would bring cold air😯. But late season carribean is interesting as well.
Euro model in about 9-10 days.............................................. ............
Quoting 130. hydrus:

Direct north to south flow associated with sharp kinks in the polar jet can bring cold air from polar regions directly south rapidly. This means that if there are cold temp records to be broken, most of them would be further south than in previous decades...jmo

Yes. And that actually seems to happen.
wont happen dont think.....the models seem to vary quite a bit in terms of dates...
Quoting 136. HurricaneFan:

More Thanksgiving doom on the GFS (for entertainment only)

Quoting 125. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Help is on the way for your garage. It would be nice to have one on standby.




Wasn't until 9pm that I wet vac'd it dry.


It was built in 47 and the floor slab is 4 inches below the back neighbors yard in one 10 ft area.

I surrender, and will raise the deck this winter,...or this spring.

The house is on raised block 4 ft higher than anyone on the blvd.


I hold the high ground still.


Ooh rah'

🙌 👍 🐯 🎹 🎷 🎵
I have a what if question.
If all oceans were consistently heated to 90 degrees f, and there was no shear, would there a place where a cyclone would be stronger than anywhere else?
Quoting 140. LargoFl:

Euro model in about 9-10 days.............................................. ............

What is that supposed to be!


O snappy tom,


Really?





Crikey sakes.


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
351 am CST Tue Nov 8 2016

Short term...
best instability found offshore south of Port Fourchon this
morning. The area is being enhanced by a slowly developing sfc low
causing sfc convergence to the lows immediate northeast. This will
also be the direction the low will move. Some of this deeper
convective activity is expected to move onshore as well. The areas
to see the most imapacts from rainfall today will be along and
south of a line from Gonzales to Poplarville. Most of this
activity will begin to move east late today and tonight. The rain
should be east and south of the area by late Wednesday afternoon.
Another cold front will then move through the area Thursday. High
pressure behind the front will help keep most of the activity
offshore Thursday. Another round of even stronger forcing from a
reinforcing cold front will move through late Friday. This front
will also be responsible for drawing moisture northward toward the
immediate coast during the day Friday. Once this front moves
through, the area should remain dry over the weekend. Will keep an
eye on Sunday as another surge of dry air moves through. There
does not look to be adequate moisture for large areas of rainfall
to develop but clouds and some light rain will be a remote
possibility.

Long term...
cool sunny and dry conditions look to remain through a good part
of next week.

&&
Quoting 142. 19N81W:

wont happen dont think.....the models seem to vary quite a bit in terms of dates...


Why would you think so?
The MJO is picking up and will be right there.

Quoting 145. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


What is that supposed to be!
a late fall noreaster
Here is the snap-shot of the forecast jet dip bringing in a November cold snap: not sure about the timing:



By AccuWeather

After calm weather conditions during much of the first half of November, one or more significant storms may arrive in the northeastern United States during the third week of the month.

Conditions may deteriorate and the weather may turn unsettled as early as the middle of next week.

A significant storm with heavy precipitation, gusty winds and rough seas may unfold over the Northeast prior to the conclusion of next week.

There is the potential for drenching rain for drought-stricken areas of the Northeast with the chance of accumulating wet snow in some locations on its northwestern flank.


Quoting 129. PedleyCA:

Went to vote at 6:45 this morning and was back by 7:30. New Polling place for me this time. Last few times it was at the New animal shelter. This time it was at a retirement home and closer to where I live. Only 30-40 people in line. It didn't take long to get it done. Another sticker for the front of the old Windows 95 Desktop I use for a monitor stand.
61.0°F as of 8:03AM Forecast 93°@KRAL


Maryland has early voting and I cast mine 11/1
Quoting 148. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

a late fall noreaster

Wow! THAT seems to be a bit out of season!
152. bwi
Warm Canada
Quoting 144. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

I have a what if question.
If all oceans were consistently heated to 90 degrees f, and there was no shear, would there a place where a cyclone would be stronger than anywhere else?

Coriolis, looks calculable to me. For sure, very near the equator they'd have to be weaker.
And here is the jet dip that is presently situated due South of Alaska that should allow cooler polar air to flow down into the Mid-West if this general configuration holds as the jet moves to the East:




I'm not even gonna watch the news tonight.Just gonna watch a few movies.The madness will finally be over with this back and forth banter.
156. elioe
Quoting 128. EricGreen:



But the annual cycle of freezing and thawing leaves a layer of relatively fresh water on the surface of the Arctic Ocean at the end of the summer melt. That low density layer inhibits overturning, thus reduces the energy available to prevent freezing at the end of the melt season. The result is a larger fraction of first year sea-ice, which is thinner and thus melts more quickly during the following melt season. but, the maximum extent isn't going to be reduced nearly as much as the minimum extent.


It can't be simply freezing and thawing. Consequently, during each spring, brine rejection would've increased the salinity back to oceanic (and therefore deep Arctic water) levels. Also, the deficit of salt in Arctic surface layer is more than annual brine rejection. The fresh layer is almost entirely attributable to river discharge, nowadays with a bit of fresh water also from melting glaciers.

I'm not a climatologist, I simply absorb pieces of knowledge about the processes on this planets from here and there. In lower latitudes, the waters have a net rising motion of several meters per year due to thermohaline circulation. To maintain somewhat stationary depth for the thermocline, the winds above the oceans have to cause mixing enough to push the thermocline down by same amount. Arctic waters have negligible net vertical velocity. If the same ocean-atmospheric processes were to exist in the Arctic, with the same power per unit area, dozens of meters of deep water would get mixed into the fresh surface layer. Dozens of times more than the freshwater influx. The Arctic Ocean would lose its stratification within years. Why isn't it so? Only reason that I can think of, is that the current ice cover inhibits winds from causing turbulence in the water column.

Quoting 144. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

I have a what if question.
If all oceans were consistently heated to 90 degrees f, and there was no shear, would there a place where a cyclone would be stronger than anywhere else?


During northern winter, it would be Laptev Sea. During southern winter, it would be the area currently occupied by West Antarctic ice sheet.

Quoting 137. georgevandenberghe:



Also look at the extreme cold in South China in 2008 (the year after the Actic Ocean mostly melted out
for the first time BTW)


It seems that lately cold spells have been more limited to eastern parts of continents. Pretty consistent with a warming Arctic having lower pressures, steering surrounding continental air cyclonically.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

I'm not even gonna watch the news tonight.Just gonna watch a few movies.The madness will finally be over with this back and forth banter.


I on the other hand am going to get some chicken wings and beer, secure my property (outside motion detectors, lights, cameras, and alarms already checked over this weekend), and settle in to watch the returns.............................
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

I'm not even gonna watch the news tonight.Just gonna watch a few movies.The madness will finally be over with this back and forth banter.


Me either. This Presidential Election is a pock mark on us as a country.

Local issues matter greatly, what with the props on the ballots. President? Didn't choose either.
Quoting 158. nash36:



Me either. This Presidential Election is a pock mark on us as a country.

Local issues matter greatly, what with the props on the ballots. President? Didn't choose either.
Can't go into to much detail but we have been running like mad here on the Hill.I've been ready for this thing to be over since January.
Quoting 153. cRRKampen:


Coriolis, looks calculable to me. For sure, very near the equator they'd have to be weaker.

What if, we also got rid of all inhibiting factors? They would form at the poles, but at which pole would the form and which would be stronger?
While the Euro is forecasting a Nor-Easter in 240 hours the GFS is forecasting a Central Plains Winter Storm.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 153. cRRKampen:


Coriolis, looks calculable to me. For sure, very near the equator they'd have to be weaker.

What if, we also got rid of all inhibiting factors? They would form at the poles, but at which pole would the form and which would be stronger?
Quoting 91. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



There was not anything that I was trying to outright debunk concerning the second link. I stated that it is cherry picking the data.

When you say that should we remove the El Nino events then there would be a plateau in the temperature data are you also saying that the La Nina events no longer exist? The ENSO does not create nor does it destroy heat energy. The ENSO is a product of the heat content that exists in the Pacific Ocean.

When you remove the signal of ENSO events, the upward trend of global temperatures is even more evident.