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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Sea Ice Extent Is Near Record Lows--South as Well as North

By: Bob Henson 4:03 PM GMT on October 26, 2016

It’s been a banner year for global sea ice, and not in a good way. After a record-smashing mild winter, the Arctic’s summer sea-ice melt culminated in a tie with 2007 for the second-lowest extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. The drama intensified this month, with Arctic sea ice extent now at a clear record low for late October as calculated by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (see Figure 1 below). This behavior isn’t really such a shock, given that Arctic sea ice has been declining for decades in the midst of sharp high-latitude warming. What’s more startling is the huge extent loss this year in the Antarctic, where sea ice extent had actually been increasing in recent years. This year’s Antarctic extent peaked very early, on August 31, and it’s now at its second-lowest value on record for late October, beaten only by 1986 (see Figure 2 below).

Together, these simultaneous drops have sent global sea ice extent--Arctic plus Antarctic--to its lowest level by far for this time of year since regular satellite monitoring began in 1979. The global extent as of October 25 was more than 1 million square kilometers below this date in 2011, the previous record-holder. In fact, it appears that the last few days are the first time we’ve seen a global departure from average in sea ice extent of more than 3 million sq km—which is more than four times the area occupied by Texas.

We shouldn’t pin too much on this record, because global sea ice extent is a much-abused and somewhat artificial metric. The Arctic and Antarctic have vastly different climate regimes, and what happens at one pole is far more important to its own regional climate than what’s occurring at the other pole. Still, the dramatic dip in global ice extent is worth noting if only because climate-change skeptics and deniers have pointed to global sea ice for years, and especially the Antarctic’s unexpected evolution, in an attempt to discount other evidence of a planet being warmed by increasing amounts of human-produced greenhouse gases. As Jeff Masters put it in this blog in 2010: “Diminishing the importance of Arctic sea ice loss by calling attention to Antarctic sea ice gain is like telling someone to ignore the fire smoldering in their attic, and instead go appreciate the coolness of the basement, because there is no fire there.”


Figure 1. The extent of Arctic sea ice has moved into record-low territory this month compared to all other Octobers since satellite monitoring of the Arctic began in 1979. This year surpassed its nearest rival, 2007, in mid-October. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.


Figure 2. The extent of Antarctic sea ice decreased rapidly in October 2016 compared to all other Octobers since satellite monitoring of the Antarctic began in 1979. The only year with a lower Antarctic extent as of October 24 was 1986 (gold line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The big north-vs-south difference in sea ice
The stark difference between yearly patterns of sea ice in the Arctic versus the Antarctic is mainly a function of where the land sits. Northern sea ice melts and freezes within the Arctic Ocean, which surrounds and includes the North Pole. Southern ice melts and freezes in a ring around the continent of Antarctica, which keeps it well away from the South Pole and at lower latitudes than Arctic sea ice. As a result, southern sea ice covers a larger area than northern sea ice each winter, yet more than 80% of it disappears each summer. From winter max to summer min, a typical yearly drop in sea-ice extent in recent years would be from around 15 to 5 million sq km in the Arctic and from around 19 to 3 million sq km in the Antarctic.

Unfortunately, the longer-term, year-round decline in Arctic sea ice extent over the last couple of decades makes all too much sense. Temperatures at high northern latitudes have been soaring, this year in particular. (One example: the statewide temperature average in Alaska for the first nine months of 2016 is nearly 3°F warmer than for any Jan-Sep period since records began in 1925.) The Arctic is still more than cold enough each winter to re-cover the Arctic Ocean with sea ice, but the quality and thickness of that return ice has been declining, and the amount that survives as multiyear ice has plummeted.

Scientists long expected the Antarctic’s sea ice to decline as well. Instead, it’s actually expanded to record-high extents at times over the last few years. Even top computer models have been flummoxed by this trend. Among the simulations of Antarctic climate carried out in support of the most recent IPCC report, a majority predicted that ice should have declined between 1979 and 2013. In a review paper published in Nature Climate Change in September, a group of Antarctic experts surveyed what we know about high-latitude southern climate. It appears that a set of interlocking, difficult-to-model factors over the last few years has fostered the increasing trend in Antarctic sea ice, especially in the Ross Sea area. These include:

--A strengthening of the midlatitude westerlies that encircle Antarctica. These have fostered upwelling of cold subsurface waters across the Southern Ocean, which allows sea ice to expand more readily.

--Increased meltwater flowing from Antarctica into the Southern Ocean. This reduces the salinity of waters near the coast, thus allowing the surface to freeze at a warmer temperature.

--Strengthening of a prevailing low in the Amundsen Sea off West Antarctica. The flow around the Amundsen Sea Low pulls cold air off the continent and into the Ross Sea. The resulting increase in sea ice over that region has made up for ice reductions in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen region, where the circulation around the prevailing low tends to bring relatively mild air onshore.

The same study also noted unmistakable signs of climate change in the Antarctic, including warming of the subsurface ocean, thinning of ice shelves, and the acceleration of outlet glaciers that ring the ice sheet. According to an essay in The Conversation by three of the study’s authors, the cooling of surface waters around Antarctica has been masking “a much more ominous change deeper down in the ocean, particularly near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Totten glacier in East Antarctica. In these regions, worrying rates of subsurface ocean warming have been detected up against the base of ice sheets. There are real fears that subsurface melting could destabilise ice sheets, accelerating future global sea level rise.”


Figure 3. Maximum extent of Antarctic sea ice in 2013 (left) and 1979 (right) as observed by satellite. October is typically the global maximum for sea ice, largely because of the vast extent of Antarctic ice at that time. Image credit: Jesse Allen and Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory.

What the tropics tell us about the future of Antarctic sea ice
I asked David Schneider (National Center for Atmospheric Research), a coauthor on the paper above, for his thoughts on recent changes in the Antarctic and what they might portend. Schneider has carried out extensive research on the intriguing links between tropical and Antarctic climate. “The Amundsen Sea Low [ASL] is strongly influenced by tropical variability, and in particular it is deeper during La Niña years,” he told me. As it turns out, La Niña events were more frequent than El Niño events from 1999 to 2014, in sync with a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). “Around the end of 2014, the PDO transitioned to its positive phase, and then the 2015-16 El Nino event occurred,” Schneider noted. “I would hypothesize that this transition of tropical climate is important for Antarctic sea ice and probably marks the end of the record high Antarctic ice extents that were observed through 2014.” Schneider added a word of caution: “The ASL exhibits the largest large-scale variability of any atmospheric circulation system on Earth, and it can vary independently of La Nina and El Nino. Thus, anomalously deep ASL years and relatively large Antarctic ice extents, particularly in the Ross Sea, are still possible.”

It should also be emphasized that the globe’s overall sea-ice budget has been in the red for quite some time. In 2015, NASA’s Claire Parkinson showed that the losses in Arctic ice were already outweighing the lesser increases in Antarctic ice. “I think that the expectation is that, if anything, in the long term the Antarctic sea ice growth is more likely to slow down or even reverse,” Parkinson said.


Figure 4. Monthly departures from average sea ice extent for the entire planet (bottom) are driven mainly by losses in the Arctic (top) rather than smaller gains in the Antarctic (middle). Image credit: Jesse Allen and Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory.


Figure 5. Temperatures across parts of the Arctic ran more than 30°F above average during the first two weeks of October 2016, based on an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis technique that involves observations across the region. Image credit: University of Maine and NOAA/ESRL/PSD.

The Arctic this autumn: Warm air, warm water, thin ice
The Arctic sea ice entered record-low territory this month after a faster-than-usual refreeze in late September and early October. “The thinned and broken ice across the central Arctic basin was able to refreeze rapidly as temperatures cooled after the sea ice minimum,” noted Zachary Labe (University of California, Irvine), a doctoral student recently profiled by Climate Central. Labe thinks the slower-than-usual growth of sea ice over the last few days is in large part due to very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the time of year. The record-warm air temperatures currently slathering the Arctic are not only associated with an atmospheric blocking pattern, but also related to the warm oceans themselves, Labe noted. “The air-ocean heat exchange from the open water is helping to modify the cold air near the surface, in addition to the release of latent heat as sea ice refreezes. The warm SSTs are really acting to prevent the sea ice to expand, especially into the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas.”

Labe is even more impressed by the very low ice thickness and volume, as estimated by computer models that reproduce the ice in three dimensions. “I think this will become a bigger story,” he said. “The Arctic ice is looking incredibly thin, which is to be expected from such warmth in both the air and ocean.”


Figure 6. The Barrow Sea Ice Webcam, operated by the University of Alaska Geophysical Institute, showed ice-free conditions on the Arctic Ocean coast on October 25, 2016. Barrow’s average temperature for the period October 1 - 25, 2016, was 30.6°F, which is 11.5°F above average for the period. In records going back to 1922, Barrow’s warmest October was in 2012, which averaged 27.5°F. Forecasts through the end of the month indicate that Barrow is very likely to break that October record. Image credit: Barrow Sea Ice Webcam.

Antarctic ice claims a polar researcher
Dr. Gordon Hamilton, a glaciologist based at the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute, died on Saturday, October 22, in an accident about 25 miles from Antarctica’s McMurdo Station. Hamilton was killed when his snow machine plunged some 100 feet into a crevasse located in an area known as the Shear Zone. He and colleagues affiliated with the U.S. Antarctic Program, managed by the National Science Foundation, had been working to identify and remediate crevasses that had appeared in the past year. “The death of one of our colleagues is a tragic reminder of the risks we all face--no matter how hard we work at mitigating those risks--in field research,” said Kelly Falkner (NSF Division of Polar Programs) in a statement on Facebook.

Figure 7. Gordon Hamilton. Image credit: University of Maine.

Hamilton’s research focused on mass balance and other aspects of polar ice sheets, including the stability of ice shelves in Antarctica, one of the most crucial uncertainties in the future of global sea level rise.

Justin Gillis (New York Times) wrote in a tribute to Hamilton: “He died doing a job whose urgency and importance, whose implications for the fate of all humanity, he understood as well as anyone. Yet he had carried out his work with a sense of wonder. Can you believe, he said to me in one of our conversations, that some of us get to spend our lives exploring places like Greenland and Antarctica?”

The four-minute film below, produced by the UM Climate Change Institute features Gordon Hamilton discussing his work. “I can’t think of another job I’d rather be doing,” Hamilton says.

We’ll be back with a new post by Friday. In the tropics, amazing Hurricane Seymour peaked on Tuesday night in the East Pacific with Category 4 sustained winds of 150 mph. Seymour was located more than 700 miles southwest of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. As of 11 am EDT Wednesday, Seymour’s peak winds were down to 140 mph. Seymour should weaken at an increasingly rapid pace Wednesday through Thursday, remaining no threat to land.

Bob Henson



Arctic Antarctic Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Excellent Reporting Dr. Henson. Thank you!
"Temperatures across parts of the Arctic ran more than 30°F above average during the first two weeks of October 2016."

That sounds like some warning a computer says in a space adventure movie.

"Captain, the planet has an area 30 degrees hotter than normal. We think it is the heat signature of an enemy base!"

Too bad it is our reality.
ice sheets are a dangerous place. i wonder if they were able to recover him?
Quoting 3. FyrtleMyrtle:

ice sheets are a dangerous place. i wonder if they were able to recover him?


"Hamilton's body has been recovered and will be returned to his family in Orono, Maine, the NSF said."
Capital Weather Gang report
According to some posts in stormcarib, St Croix has been pretty dry this month. St Thomas was lucky enough to get plenty of isolated heavy showers this october, like we did in september. But only a slight difference in the showers location would have made a huge difference in the luckiest Virgin Islands...

Let's face it, there were no widespread weather systems over the NE Caribbean this month... and this is clearly an anomaly !
Hopefully a little shower will come later.

FYI for those of you who don't know, but Zachary Labe started blogging on WU when he was a student in central PA (Harrisburg area). His thorough and very thoughtful blogging on Mid-Atlantic storms and weather patterns probably helped him get into Cornell met program. Now he's rapidly becoming a nationwide expert with a big influence. And I remember when I would check WU all the time to see his latest snowfall forecast!

Arctic sea ice extent at lowest measured for the date:
Quoting 6. CaribBoy:

Hopefully a little shower will come later.


Stx has gotten some rain but i guess we been lucky here on st.thomas rainned almost everyday at least a passing shower
the biggest polluters have done nothing to curb emissions in the western world.....imagine how less likely they are to do in developing nations and China.

As I mentioned months ago it will take a immediate catastrophic event or another global war to lower co2 levels.

Driving a greener car, or turning off your lights is futile in light of rapidly growing populations.

We just have to adapt and get ready for the climate migrations to start....Canada look out....
Thank you Mr. Henson....This entry is very well written and explains the complexities on the subject clearly.
11. bwi
19-81 I disagree. Fertility rates are down everywhere but sub-Saharan Africa (and those will come down with reduced poverty and better women's health and birth control). China is building more green electric generation than the U.S. currently in total power production! India is cooperating with climate change mitigation -- they know how much they have to lose and their fragility.

Once the U.S. finally gets the memo, Co2 reductions here will be rapid. We automatically complain about any lifestyle change, whether it's recycling beer cans or cleaning dog poo. But then once we finally get on board, it's easy, and even our crankiest uncles can be converted to sidewalk hygiene and our crabbiest grandmas will complain if you don't toss your empty in the correct recycle bin.

We've already moderated U.S Co2 with just tiny measures; imagine what a producer tax and Alaska-type dividend would do! We just have to restrain the political power of the fossil fuel producers a little bit more to make huge, hopeful progress.

We still won't hold it to 2 degrees C globally, but maybe keeping it under 3C is possible. That might be enough to prevent the worst weather changes. (It probably won't be enough to prevent 5 meters of sea level rise over the next several centuries, though.)

The entire southern U.S. could easily become a yuuuuuge rooftop solar generating grid.
Possible rain event and development near the NE caribbean around nov 2
If you are ever wondering where you stand in the universe....

Well you are here...

This 3-D Flyby animation from data gathered by the GPM core observatory satellite is from its view of Hurricane Seymour on Oct. 25 at 7:46 am PDT (1646 UTC). GPM showed rain falling at the extreme rate (red) of almost 166 mm (6.6 inches) per hour in the southern side of hurricane Seymour's circular eye. Credits: NASA/JAXA, Hal Pierce.
From Phys.org : NASA provides a 3-D look at Hurricane Seymour (Oct. 26)
Quoting 13. RitaEvac:

If you are ever wondering where you stand in the universe....

Well you are here...



There, the pale blue dot. I miss Sagan.
Thanks for the interesting blog entry, Bob!
Very sorry to learn about the death of the Scottish scientist.

To contribute something to the worrisome subject of sea ice, here the latest (from September) about crackling Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica:

Rift Speeds Up Across Antarctic Ice Shelf
Climate Central, Published: September 30th, 2016
As the sun reemerged over the Antarctic horizon in August after the long, dark austral winter, satellites could once again peer at a rift that has been wending its way across the white expanse of the Larsen C Ice Shelf on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula.
To the surprise of scientists, satellite images revealed that the fissure had grown by about 13 miles over just a few months — much faster than its previous pace. ...


Good afternoon wunderland.


If vizo is around,I need huge NYC favor to discuss.

Contact me via wu mail if you see dis here post.

Thanks


Patrick

💪😁🌞👍✌👻💀🌎🌊👼🙀🍺
A terrible loss for his friends,family and fellow researchers.

Those who risk life and limb to further our collective knowledge of a Planet we all share....are saluted and recognised here today.

"Uncommon valor was a common virtue"-

Atlantic storm "Elisabeth" with its center over the Canary Islands continues to create weird weather in Africa and the Western and Central Mediterranean:

Heatwave in northwest Africa
Eastern Atlantic storm system brings near-record heat to Algeria
Rob McElwee, 4 hours ago


Source.


Source: (Unofficial) Record-breaking temperature across the Globe
For the long term, although the GFS is showing a very wet pattern by the end of next week, still too early to know if this solution will verify or not.

We all know that dry and boring always win.... :/
Quoting 9. 19N81W:

the biggest polluters have done nothing to curb emissions in the western world.....imagine how less likely they are to do in developing nations and China.
As I mentioned months ago it will take a immediate catastrophic event or another global war to lower co2 levels.
Driving a greener car, or turning off your lights is futile in light of rapidly growing populations.
We just have to adapt and get ready for the climate migrations to start....Canada look out....

I agree only to the first two sentences.
Going green is not futile, it's a civic duty, if only to be able to face your children when they're adults.
Quoting 19. Patrap:

A terrible loss for his friends,family and fellow researchers.

Those who risk life and limb to further our collective knowledge of a Planet we all share....are saluted and recognised here today.

"Uncommon valor was a common virtue"-


He loved what he was doing and it showed...I bet he loved the Earth too.
National Snow and Ice Data Center (Greenland Ice Sheet Today) - October 26 :
2016 melt season in review
"Melt extent in Greenland was above average in 2016, ranking tenth highest (tied with 2004) in the 38-year satellite record. Melt area in 2016 was slightly greater than in 2015, which ranked twelfth. However, near-average to below-average coastal snowfall levels that exposed bare ice earlier in the melting season, combined with warm and sunny conditions at lower elevations, led to high overall ice loss from runoff.

(...) On both the eastern and western coastal areas of the ice sheet, the exposure of dark ice combined with more sunshine led to intense melting during the observed melt days. High levels of run-off on the western coast, and eastern coast 'hot spots' of frequent and intense melting led to a high estimated mass loss. One model (MAR 3.5.2 from Xavier Fettweis, Universite de Liege, forced by NCEP reanalysis data) estimates a net extra surface mass loss of water with respect to the 1981 to 2010 average at 144 gigatons. This is the third highest surface mass loss since observations began in 1979, trailing the warm summers of 2010 and 2012."


Edit : Greenland's Ice Is Getting Darker, Increasing Risk of Melting
The Earth Institute / Columbia University - April 2016.
Feedback loops from melting itself are driving changes in reflectivity.
sorry I wasnt clear.......its futile in terms of its impact on lowering co2
however I agree with you in what you said....it is the right thing to do
Quoting 22. EmsiNasklug:


I agree only to the first two sentences.
Going green is not futile, it's a civic duty, if only to be able to face your children when they're adults.

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson, 74.9F here in Jurupa Valley today normal is 79/52(KRAL)
Edit: final high was 80.1F
28. bwi
Latest visualization of changes in West Antarctic Ice Sheet from NASA/JPL narrated by Eric Rignot. The WAIS and the slowdown of the gulf stream will determine coastlines in the mid-Atlantic U.S. where I live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQMtb1Pd07E

Screenshot (from yesterday's run) - Past 23 days plus 7 day forecast - mean 2m air temperature anomalies (Arctic) :

Click picture to access current forecast plus reanalysis - enlarged (or click here).
Quoting 16. Patrap:




i really want a cat 5 before the end of season, but looke like Saymour was our last chance and it doesn't take. I wanted this season becomes the 1st time that 3rd consecutive year with Cat 5 in the E. Pacific (Marie 2014 and Patricia 2015), because this never happen yet. The atual record was 2009-2010 (Rick, Celia) and 2014-2015 (Marie, Patricia). We gonna wait more several years to see if this will happen in the future.
Magnitude 6.1 earthquake in central Italy, per USGS
Hello everyone! I wanted to bring this to the attention of Florida Residents who are voting in this election in regards to Amendment I: Rights of Electricity Consumers Regarding Solar Energy Choice and how it is an attempt by Corporations of Electric and Oil Companies to mislead and misinform consumers. Say No to this amendment unless you want to be paying extra on your electric bill. Hopefully, this comment doesn't get deleted because people deserve the right to know the truth.

There are no people backing Florida’s deceptive solar amendment. Only corporations.

Solar companies usually back solar amendments.

But they have all lined up solidly against Florida’s Amendment 1 — “Rights of Electricity Consumers Regarding Solar Energy Choice,” which, despite its title, is not about consumer rights or choice. In fact, it would effectively work against solar, by allowing utilities to add special charges for solar customers, the same type of charges that gutted the rooftop solar business in Arizona. It would also make solar leasing more difficult or impossible.

In the Sunshine State, solar energy is pretty popular, but a late September poll showed 66 percent of voters backing Amendment 1, despite the implications.

Why a majority of voters are supporting the measure seems to come down to two key factors: money and misinformation. The utilities and groups backing Amendment 1, which goes to voters November 8, have significantly outspent their opponents, and a coordinated misinformation effort has confused many voters.

Three utilities, Duke Energy, Gulf Power, and Florida Light & Power, have spent nearly $14 million on direct funding for the campaign, which is being led by a group called Consumers for Smart Solar. The nearly $14 million does not including money that utilities have donated to other groups which have, in turn, funded the campaign.



In addition to the money, which has funded a tsunami of TV, radio, and robocall advertising, the backers of Amendment 1 are depending on a solid — and admitted — misinformation campaign.

The attempt to mislead voters started at the very conception of Amendment 1. As soon as it was put on the ballot, the wording of the measure was the subject of a court challenge, led by solar supporters. The state supreme court eventually accepted the measure’s wording, but not before one justice wrote that it was “the proverbial ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing.’”

In fact, it’s unclear whether anyone supports the measure who isn’t tied to the utility industry or a conservative group supporting Consumers for Smart Solar, the advocacy group behind the measure.

For over a year, local newspapers and national magazines have been warning Floridians that Amendment 1 is not a pro-solar measure. By now, just weeks before the election, every major newspaper in the state has come out against the measure.

There is a single letter to the editor re-posted on Consumers for Smart Solar’s Facebook page that was not penned by someone who works for the campaign. ThinkProgress contacted the author, Florida resident Virginia Nelsen, who said she no longer supports Amendment 1.

I read [the measure] and it sounded really good to me — and I thought I knew what I was talking about,” Nelsen told ThinkProgress. “Now I’m completely confused.”

Nelsen said no, she is not worried about cost-shifting — which is when the behavior of one group, such as solar users, drives up costs for other users. And while she doesn’t have solar and isn’t planning to get solar, she said she doesn’t think it’s anyone else’s business where you get your electricity. She was also troubled by the fact that the measure is being supported by the utilities, who she said are just trying to protect their monopoly.

“People in Florida are pretty confused,” Nelsen said.

By any measure, there seems to be scant support for Amendment 1 among ordinary Floridians. An audit of donors to Consumers for Smart Solar found that of the only 12 individuals who had given, 11 of them had direct ties to the utility industry or one of the conservative groups supporting the organization.

Over the weekend, another Florida voter, 84-year-old Barbara Waks, called the Miami Herald to say she had just heard about leaked audio from a conservative conference in which a lobbyist appears to brag about how the amendment leverages voters’ support of solar to help the utilities.

“Your article came one day too late,’’ Waks told the paper. “I read it and I almost cried. I’m one of the stupid people who was duped. I voted incorrectly. Is there anything I can do?”

Waks said she voted early. “I’m furious that they would put something on the ballot that would deliberately confuse people and I’m furious at myself,” she said.

A conservative advocacy group for retired Americans, known as 60 Plus, has launched robo-calls supporting the measure featuring Pat Boone. This isn’t the first time the group has gotten involved in an anti-solar campaign. In 2013, 60 Plus became caught up in an investigation in Arizona, after the state’s utilities regulatory commission admitted it was funding groups that were running anti-solar ads.

Billing itself as a “conservative AARP,” 60 Plus has close ties to the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and to other Koch-funded groups. A spokesperson for the group did not return email or phone messages asking for comment.
33. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
D&T:: ON animation (bottom bar)
AOI:: Western USofA (~Canada)
NOTE 1:: time lapse amount on bottom bar's right in orange. (TANGENT THOUGHT:: wouldn't it be weird that device that uses sound and mag. pulses to push-pull (separate and remove) CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere(s) be name in a manner to rhyme with orange?)
NOTE2:: No colourkey no longer take the time to provide customized colourkey nor do i "pop" nite-time colours to match daytime colours...reason? am a retired nut.
 
ImgLand.net image
34. vis0
What would be the name of such device? (cmmnt #33 on this blogbyte)


Had 3 made-up names on my deleted blogs, the only one i remember was "goRange atmospheric equanator"

(watch a google search will have some pat. pending,.

i "scouts honor" ** never heard of that name made it up in the 1990s when i sent the weather channel pages as to my theories.

**don't like to sw**r, never in boy scouts but  was in a  group called Royal Rangers... boy scout type of thing for certain religious groups, to keep kids off the streets)


SENT mail hope the stamp doesn't fall off   ;: - P
Quoting 7. bwi:

FYI for those of you who don't know, but Zachary Labe started blogging on WU when he was a student in central PA (Harrisburg area). His thorough and very thoughtful blogging on Mid-Atlantic storms and weather patterns probably helped him get into Cornell met program. Now he's rapidly becoming a nationwide expert with a big influence. And I remember when I would check WU all the time to see his latest snowfall forecast!

Arctic sea ice extent at lowest measured for the date:

I personally believe that the next generation of wx experts is going to be largely comprised of WUbloggers who go on to achieve great things in the field.....
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
243 PM PDT Wed Oct 26 2016

"....DISCUSSION...as of 2:30 PM PDT Wednesday...Looking around our CWA
this afternoon you certainly would not know that a return to wet
conditions will be back in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay
Region starting tomorrow. Abundant sunshine helped push up
temperatures past values from yesterday with many spots currently
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Even many locations near the coast
have been well into the 60s to lower 70s.

Satellite shows hurricane Seymore (now down to a category 3)
slowly progressing to the north around 800 miles south-southwest
of Cabo San Lucas. Moisture associated with this system will
become entrained in the flow and progress toward our region by
tomorrow. PW values will increase to over 1.60" to the Monterey
coastline by Thursday as a frontal boundary approaches from the
NW..."

(error in discussion text: should be 800 miles WEST southwest of Cabo as you can plainly see in the image)
Some findings today when googling "hurricanes" (apart from the sport stuff though ;-)

Coastal wetlands save hundreds of millions of dollars in flood damages during hurricanes
PhysOrg, October 26, 2016 by Tim Stephens
As communities across the Southeast United States and the Caribbean count the cost of flood and wind damage during Hurricane Matthew, a pioneering study led by scientists at UC Santa Cruz, Coastal Wetlands and Flood Damage Reduction, has quantified how much protection natural coastal habitats provide during hurricanes. ...

Guest commentary: 4 years after Sandy: Building a more resilient shoreline
October 26, 2016 02:16AM, By Wendi Weber

Matthew's flooding in Nags Head unexpected, unprecedented
By Russ Lay on October 26, 2016

Trump Claimed $17M in Hurricane Damage for Private Florida Club

By JEFF HORWITZ and TERRY SPENCER | October 26, 2016
Donald Trump said he received a $17 million insurance payment in 2005 for hurricane damage to Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, but The Associated Press found little evidence of such large-scale damage. ...

Good night, everyone, from Germany with currently very calm autumn weather.
Quoting 35. BahaHurican:

True that statement in the article below, Baha? Then congratulations!
Bahamas Are Open for Business
Destination & Tourism | Bahamas Ministry of Tourism | Kristina Rundquist | October 26, 2016
Quoting 39. BayFog:

Looking at Seattle:
October could be the rainiest on record
KING 4:18 PM. PDT October 26, 2016
This October could be the rainiest yet.
So far this month, the Seattle area has picked up over seven inches of rain – about five inches above normal. We only need 1.3 inches more to break the rain record of 8.96 inches for October set in 2003.
The average rain fall for October is 3.48 inches. ...
Exposed: The Climate Fallacy of 2100
Scientific American / Guest Blog - October 2016.
If we do not plan, now, to limit carbon emissions beyond this century, we will foolishly raise the oceans dramatically for thousands of years.

"We are doing ourselves a dreadful disservice by consistently framing 2100 as essentially the last, final year of impacts. We're thinking in a blinkered way decades out, while our foot is pressing hard on a warming accelerator that has serious impacts centuries out.
(...) Looking at rates of CO2 emissions, and at international actions that lean toward lofty words about future cuts over real action with teeth today, optimism does not spring to mind. In a mere couple of centuries, humans will have committed Earth to new climate regimes and higher seas never seen in our history, that will potentially last millennia.
And we will have done it all, knowing the likely consequences."


Greenland Is Melting
Elizabeth Kolbert / The New Yorker - October 2016.
The shrinking of Greenland's ice sheet is triggering feedback loops that accelerate the global crisis. The floodgates may already be open.
Not a lot of comments here today, but a greater ratio of substantive comments than I have ever seen. Great job y'all!

Upper low well offshore of CA coast has momentarily stalled the frontal band and the outflow from Seymour is moving rapidly northward toward possible entrainment. The NHC has the surface circulation separating from the mid and upper levels, but even the surface circulation will be moving toward the front before it dissipates, which would suggest that deep layer moisture will be available for the front to wring out as the upper low pushes it eastward.
Quoting 13. RitaEvac:

If you are ever wondering where you stand in the universe....

Well you are here...



Uniquely made and individually gifted. What a marvel!
Quoting 35. BahaHurican:

I personally believe that the next generation of wx experts is going to be largely comprised of WUbloggers who go on to achieve great things in the field.....


Me too. Levi is another one that I believe is destined for greatness.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1109 PM PDT Wed Oct 26 2016

DISCUSSION...as of 9:05 PM PDT Wednesday...Temperatures topped
out in the 60s along the coast, 70s inland and low to mid 80s in
the warmest inland valleys today under mostly sunny skies. A
significant change in the weather is expected tomorrow as the next
in a series of storms take aim at the region.

Latest model runs indicate rain will begin as early at Thursday
morning becoming widespread across the forecast area through the
day. Doppler radar is already picking up return well off the coast
at this hour with all indications pointing to an early morning
start to the rain over the North Bay Thursday. Moisture
associated with hurricane Seymore spinning about 775 miles west
southwest of the southern tip of Baja Mexico will become in
entrained in the southerly flow of the frontal boundary moving
toward the Central Coast. Precipitable water values of over 1.5"
are forecast to move in over Monterey county Thursday afternoon
and evening. Periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated Thursday
night into Friday as an upper level closed low pulsates around
the longwave trough collides with the plume of moisture as it
moves onshore over the Big Sur coast. These enhanced dynamics will
translate into rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches over the Santa
Lucia range. Along with increased rainfall rates this shortwave
will bring an increased chance of thunderstorms over the area
south of Big Sur. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the
Soberanes and the Chimney Fire burn scar.

How is this not seen by the NHC?!?!!
The outer bands are affecting me, just low clouds and light rain in the outer bands and like 40 mph winds, lol.
BayFog - any word on swells out at mavericks?

How is this not seen by the NHC?!?!!
The outer bands are affecting me, just low clouds and light rain in the outer bands and like 40 mph winds, lol.
Quoting 20. barbamz:

Atlantic storm "Elisabeth" with its center over the Canary Islands continues to create weird weather in Africa and the Western and Central Mediterranean:

Heatwave in northwest Africa
Eastern Atlantic storm system brings near-record heat to Algeria
Rob McElwee, 4 hours ago


Source.


Source: (Unofficial) Record-breaking temperature across the Globe


On August 9th my location would have been black for like 4 days.
Viddaloo did a great update on the ongoing Arctic October Plunge in his blog.
Quoting 49. NunoLava1998:


How is this not seen by the NHC?!?!!
The outer bands are affecting me, just low clouds and light rain in the outer bands and like 40 mph winds, lol.

On August 9th my location would have been black for like 4 days.


too far N and it could be a cold core storm
Ha! See the little spot in upper left corner of the map below concerning tropical cyclone formation probability? There are chances of development in the central Mediterranean the next couple of days. UKMET too predicts a warm core. The low is already swirling off the southwestern coast of Italy and north of Sicily.









Have a nice morning and day, everyone!
Quoting 51. thetwilightzone:

too far N and it could be a cold core storm

Maybe a shallow warm core could develop, Taz:

Source.
Interesting article here says coastal flooding due to GW has already begun..................Link
Quoting 13. RitaEvac:

If you are ever wondering where you stand in the universe....

Well you are here...



Thanks for the graphic- Indeed, its altogether amazing. Truly an awesome Universe...& testament also to the Great Alpha & Omega Creator God!

Blessings!
Quoting 12. CaribBoy:

Possible rain event and development near the NE caribbean around nov 2


Apparently, Its quite a possibility according to some of the models at present... However, as always we'll have to wait and see. Let's hope and pray that nothing the likes of Lenny (1999), or Omar (2008) will ever materialize -should an organised system actually form as a result of this predicted activity.

God Bless!

Good Morning; interesting pre-winter weather flow in the Northern Hemisphere per the comments below as to the ULL off of California/Seymour and the Low off the Coast of Africa with the flow into the Mediterranean sea region;





Thanks many times for your research and candid reporting
so about that rain we were supposed to have this morning....yeah....

Quoting 55. NatureIsle:



Thanks for the graphic- Indeed, its altogether amazing. Truly an awesome Universe...& testament also to the Great Alpha & Omega Creator God!

Blessings!


My favorite one to blame for this universe today is Kutkh, the Raven God of Siberian People.

Quoting 35. BahaHurican:

I personally believe that the next generation of wx experts is going to be largely comprised of WUbloggers who go on to achieve great things in the field.....
Please not that.
Quoting 60. ariot:



My favorite one to blame for this universe today is Kutkh, the Raven God of Siberian People.




Beloved Pan and all ye other gods who haunt this place, give me beauty in the inward soul, and may the outward and the inner man be at one. -Socrates
One thing where I see a lot of lack of discussion is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Its positive phase is north-warming and its negative phase is north-cooling. These phases affect global temperature because the Arctic and near-Arctic has more regional surface albedo positive feedback than the Antarctic and near-Antarctic. This may be linked to some multi-year-smoothed ENSO index.

AMO was on an upswing from sometime in the 1970s to a few years after 2000, and has been on a downslide in the past several years. I think polar sea ice lags this a couple years or a few years, and maybe just now a southward shift of global heat is melting sea ice in the Atlantic.

As for AMO (or a set of multidecadal oscillations) affecting global temperature: Have a look at global surface temperature indices that don't use the outlier SST dataset ERSSTv4. HadCRUT seems to be the best. A ~65-year cycle that has held up for at least two full cycles is obvious. I think this explains about .2-.22 degree C of global warming from the early 1970s to a few years after 2000. Also, it seems to me that climate models, including the CMIP5 ones, were tuned to have hindcast this rapid warming without a multidecadal oscillation and are overstating the amount of warming from positive feedbacks to warming from increase of greenhouse gases. Notably, the CMIP5 models transition from hindcast to forecast starting with 2006, very shortly after the AMO (and multiyear-smoothed ENSO) turned a corner. And since then, global warming (especially according to indices that don't use ERSSTv4) has had a serious slowdown.
Now that PDO has gone negative again for two months, the slowdown may continue until it has lasted 30 years - into the 2030s. At that time, I expect global temperature to be at least .5 degree C cooler than the median of the CMIP5 RCP6 models. After that, I expect more rapid warming to resume - almost as rapid as predicted by median of CMIP5 RCP6 models, and the global temperature shortfall from that forecast will increase much more slowly, possibly hold steady to around 2070. After then, I wonder about the multidecadal oscillation(s) continuing to hold a nice neat ~65-year cycle, but I do expect the shortfall of global temperature from the median of the CMIP5 RCP6 to continue/resume growing at some pace or another and global temperature at the end of the century will be between .5 and 1 degree C cooler than median of CMIP5 RCP6.
Quoting 59. pipelines:

so about that rain we were supposed to have this morning....yeah....




There is one inch in my rain gauge from last night and this morning. We always get an inch or more, never 1/4" like we used to get... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (Almost always...hardly never...)
We're still waiting for our first frost. (Chicago suburbs) We had a minor frost at 38° F last week, but no hard frost yet. It's long overdue now... ..still waiting...
"Skating on thin ice" comes to mind.
I read a book a few years ago, and now I'm reading this! The book is named Farthest North by Fridjof Nansen and it describes the first successful trip to North Pole in the Fram with Nansen and Amundsen et al . The trip took three years to complete, as the ship got stuck in the ice, eventually on foot with twenty sled dogs, they got lost in the frozen arctic, and all their sled dogs died one by one, and they killed and ate polar bear and walrus...and the book was published in 1893. Prior to their voyage, only shipwrecks returned from the Arctic explorations.
Today, I fear, the trip is not so dangerous any more. Back then, it was like going to the moon! Warming has changed everything.
Quoting 67. ChiThom:

"Skating on thin ice" comes to mind.
I read a book a few years ago, and now I'm reading this! The book is named Farthest North by Fridjof Nansen and it describes the first successful trip to North Pole in the Fram with Nansen and Amundsen et al . The trip took three years to complete, as the ship got stuck in the ice, eventually on foot with twenty sled dogs, they got lost in the frozen arctic, and all their sled dogs died one by one, and they killed and ate polar bear and walrus...and the book was published in 1893. Prior to their voyage, only shipwrecks returned from the Arctic explorations.
Today, I fear, the trip is not so dangerous any more. Back then, it was like going to the moon! Warming has changed everything.


GPS mapping and satellite tracking along with constant communications have made trips to regions like the Arctic completely different then back in the 1800s.
Quoting 65. ChiThom:



There is one inch in my rain gauge from last night and this morning. We always get an inch or more, never 1/4" like we used to get... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (Almost always...hardly never...)

38 days now here without a drop. Under an inch for the last two months. Stop bragging lol....
Klipperweather10:25 AM EDT on October 27, 2016

I am only an amateur but am impressed with the calculations and observations you are postulating; you sound like a Pro and would be interested if you have published in this area or can cite a few research papers to support your conclusions; particularly with regard to the "hindsight" bias as to the models that you cite..................................Thanks in advance.
Quoting 68. Sfloridacat5:



GPS mapping and satellite tracking along with constant communications have made trips to regions like the Arctic completely different then back in the 1800s.



Yeah, that too.
Quoting 68. Sfloridacat5:



GPS mapping and satellite tracking along with constant communications have made trips to regions like the Arctic completely different then back in the 1800s.


Amundsen did manage to go to the Antarctic in 1910-1912, and back in the same wooden ship originally commissioned by Nansen for the North Pole expedition, the Fram.

This could get interesting... bring it..
Quoting 63. Klipperweather:

One thing where I see a lot of lack of discussion is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Its positive phase is north-warming and its negative phase is north-cooling. These phases affect global temperature because the Arctic and near-Arctic has more regional surface albedo positive feedback than the Antarctic and near-Antarctic. This may be linked to some multi-year-smoothed ENSO index.

AMO was on an upswing from sometime in the 1970s to a few years after 2000, and has been on a downslide in the past several years. I think polar sea ice lags this a couple years or a few years, and maybe just now a southward shift of global heat is melting sea ice in the Atlantic.

As for AMO (or a set of multidecadal oscillations) affecting global temperature: Have a look at global surface temperature indices that don't use the outlier SST dataset ERSSTv4. HadCRUT seems to be the best. A ~65-year cycle that has held up for at least two full cycles is obvious. I think this explains about .2-.22 degree C of global warming from the early 1970s to a few years after 2000. Also, it seems to me that climate models, including the CMIP5 ones, were tuned to have hindcast this rapid warming without a multidecadal oscillation and are overstating the amount of warming from positive feedbacks to warming from increase of greenhouse gases. Notably, the CMIP5 models transition from hindcast to forecast starting with 2006, very shortly after the AMO (and multiyear-smoothed ENSO) turned a corner. And since then, global warming (especially according to indices that don't use ERSSTv4) has had a serious slowdown.
Now that PDO has gone negative again for two months, the slowdown may continue until it has lasted 30 years - into the 2030s. At that time, I expect global temperature to be at least .5 degree C cooler than the median of the CMIP5 RCP6 models. After that, I expect more rapid warming to resume - almost as rapid as predicted by median of CMIP5 RCP6 models, and the global temperature shortfall from that forecast will increase much more slowly, possibly hold steady to around 2070. After then, I wonder about the multidecadal oscillation(s) continuing to hold a nice neat ~65-year cycle, but I do expect the shortfall of global temperature from the median of the CMIP5 RCP6 to continue/resume growing at some pace or another and global temperature at the end of the century will be between .5 and 1 degree C cooler than median of CMIP5 RCP6.

From your mouth to God's ear. (from your pen to God's eyes)
The Northeast sees some drought abatement over the past week. Here are the latest numbers as of 25 October:
"On this week’s map, drought-affected areas in western portions of New York saw significant rainfall accumulations ranging from two to six inches leading to one-category improvements in areas of Severe Drought (D2) and Extreme Drought (D3). In northeastern Connecticut and northern Rhode Island, beneficial rainfall during the past week led to a one-category improvement in an area of Severe Drought (D2) where two-to-four inches of precipitation was observed. Rainfall from the same storm event led to a reduction in an area of Extreme Drought (D3) in coastal areas of southern Maine as well as reduction in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in northern Maine. Improvements in areas of Massachusetts that received rainfall this week were held status quo in response to lingering, longer-term, hydro-logic impacts."

U.S. Drought Monitor: Link
Well, it's warmed-up enough, so I'd better get to work on that chimney top again. Later.
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:


This could get interesting... bring it..


Incoming!
weak spin in the nw carib.
See some mention of drought below and we had some discussion on this issue with one Blogger noting how bad things had gotten for the AL tri-state region..............Here is the updated full chart for this week and the current look across Conus for some perspective: some minor relief (not enough by a long shot) for parts of California and no relief in sight for the North AL/North GA/South TN area.


Current U.S. Drought Monitor



Tropical bands of rain moving through the Lower Keys this afternoon.

Added: A few boomers too.

Record Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet in 2016:

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenlan d-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
Interesting weather going on up north to our friends in TDOT. Send some of that cold weather down south, please. :)

Quoting 63. Klipperweather:


The problem with oscillations is that they can't affect the trend much or at all. So, your hypothesis will fail spectacularly in all probability.

Edit to add:
I decided to check to see if the AMO downswing since 2003 had any noticeable effect on the global temperature trend. It doesn't.
Quoting 82. RichardBLong:

Record Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet in 2016:

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenlan d-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/


I couldn't get the link to open. Can you check it?
Interesting to note that the lack of land falling storms in the Northern Gulf this season is probably contributing to some of the drought issues further inland and that the trajectory of Seymour, as noted by Bay of Fog for the past few days, is bringing a little bit of rain relief to SW Conus........................Tropical storms as temporary drought relievers has been noted by Dr. M and others for years now as one of positives of these systems (but outweighed by just about everything else that they can come with including too much rain at one time).......................
Quoting 82. RichardBLong:

Record Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet in 2016:

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenlan d-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/


Fixed the URL http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland -ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget

Not sure where you're getting record growth? It looks like they had a lot of snow the last week or two, I don't see anything that establishes it as a record. Doesn't change the fact that Greenland is losing more ice than it gains every year, it even says it in the article you posted.

"Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."
Quoting 86. Snacker2:



I couldn't get the link to open. Can you check it?


Remove the space between the N and the D.
Quoting 82. RichardBLong:

Record Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet in 2016:

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenlan d-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Yeah, probably not: Link

And this:
I've recently completed most recent Tropical Western Pacific analysis. The remainder of this week will likely remain quiet, but a couple of invests could become players next week.

My thoughts about the recent growth of Antarctic winter sea ice coverage is as follows:

As the amount of CO2 increases, the upper troposphere above Antarctic ice sheets loses more heat by radiation. Because of that, most of the air above the ice surface gets colder than before. It can do so without becoming unstable, even if surface temperature increases, since inland Antarctic air has traditionally been virtually isothermal vertically. The colder mid- to upper level temperatures cause the surface pressure to rise, which increases the total flow of katabatic winds. Even as the temperature of those winds rises somewhat, they remain dozens of degrees below freezing point of ocean (-1.8C). In total, the amount of heat that those winds can receive per unit time, as they warm up to -1.8C when getting above open water, increases. As a consequence, ice cover increases.

If this is the case, Antarctic sea ice cover should continue growing in coming years, the current situation being just an anomaly.
Things are indeed getting interesting in the Mediterranean - nice MCS tonight :

Eumetsat IR - modified by meteo-ciel.fr (click for current sat).
Animation ends at about 1800 UTC, October 27.
(By the way, I've seldom seen such cold cloudtops...
Edit : See also Kachelmannwetter.com - top alarm 15min : I found tops at -76C around 1730 UTC)
"Storm Forecast Valid: Thu 27 Oct 2016 06:00 to Fri 28 Oct 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 27 Oct 2016 06:12
(...) A level 2 was issued for the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, southern and central Italy, Sicily, and the Ionian Sea region including western Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. A level 1 was issued for the central and southern Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.
From the discussion :
(...) High resolution models indicate the formation of a well-developed MCV* and warm-core cyclone over the Ionian Sea late in the period. Severe winds will become more likely especially along the coasts of southern Italy and Sicily. (...)"
More at Estofex.org
*I assume they mean Mesoscale Convective Vortex.
Here's the link. Again, the Greenland Ice Sheet is experiencing Record Ice Growth

Link
Quoting 95. RichardBLong:

Here's the link. Again, the Greenland Ice Sheet is experiencing Record Ice Growth

Link


and I'll repeat my question, where are you getting "record growth" from? No where in the article do they claim record growth. It actually states that Greenland has a net loss of ice every year.
Quoting 95. RichardBLong:

Here's the link. Again, the Greenland Ice Sheet is experiencing Record Ice Growth

Link

maybe trolling......

Posts: 0 Comments: 16

Quoting 95. RichardBLong:

Here's the link. Again, the Greenland Ice Sheet is experiencing Record Ice Growth

Link
we actually got some really good rain today....albeit it only last about 45 mins it was coming down. I also think most of the Island got some which doesnt really happen anymore.

Lets hope for much more......

sorry carib boy:(
Quoting 99. 19N81W:

we actually got some really good rain today....albeit it only last about 45 mins it was coming down. I also think most of the Island got some which doesnt really happen anymore.

Lets hope for much more......

sorry carib boy:(


Maybe our turn is coming next week. Hopefully.
101. ariot
Quoting 95. RichardBLong:

Here's the link. Again, the Greenland Ice Sheet is experiencing Record Ice Growth

Link


If you read the username....
Quoting 98. 19N81W:

maybe trolling......

Posts: 0 Comments: 16


Richardblong maybe be richardcutshort rofl
Don't have the most recent research at my fingertips at the moment but part of the issue as related to the Antarctic ice sheet "growth" is related to shift in the wind patterns with the Antarctic jet...............The real issue, as opposed to overhead shots of the area, is what is happening under the surface of the ice sheet with the currents as related to the thickness of the ice..................Some erosion going on underneath it all: from NASA (2015).......Just Sayin:

That suggests that a low-pressure system centered in the Amundsen Sea could be intensifying or becoming more frequent in the area, she said – changing the wind patterns and circulating warm air over the peninsula, while sweeping cold air from the Antarctic continent over the Ross Sea. This, and other wind and lower atmospheric pattern changes, could be influenced by the ozone hole higher up in the atmosphere – a possibility that has received scientific attention in the past several years, Parkinson said.

“The winds really play a big role,” Meier said. They whip around the continent, constantly pushing the thin ice. And if they change direction or get stronger in a more northward direction, he said, they push the ice further and grow the extent.  When researchers measure ice extent, they look for areas of ocean where at least 15 percent is covered by sea ice.

While scientists have observed some stronger-than-normal pressure systems – which increase winds – over the last month or so, that element alone is probably not the reason for this year’s record extent, Meier said. To better understand this year and the overall increase in Antarctic sea ice, scientists are looking at other possibilities as well.

Melting ice on the edges of the Antarctic continent could be leading to more fresh, just-above-freezing water, which makes refreezing into sea ice easier, Parkinson said. Or changes in water circulation patterns, bringing colder waters up to the surface around the landmass, could help grow more ice.



Well the Danes say not so much -

180,000 forgotten photos reveal the future of Greenland’s ice

Link
Half a Kilometer of Ice Gone in Just 7 Years — West Antarctica’s Smith Glacier Points To Nightmare Melt Scenario
The nightmare global warming melt scenario for West Antarctica goes something like this —

First, ocean waters warmed by climate change approach the vast frozen continent. Melt already running out from the continent forms a fresh water lens that pushes these warmer waters toward the ocean bottom. The waters then get caught up in currents surrounding Antarctica that draw them in toward numerous submerged glacial faces. The added ocean heat combines with falling melting points at depth to produce rapid melt along sea fronting glacier bases. Since many of these glaciers sit on below sea level beds that slope downward toward the interior of Antarctica, a small amount of initial melt sets off an inland flood of these warmer waters that then produces a cascade of melt. This glacial melt chain reaction ultimately generates a Heinrich Event in which armadas of icebergs burst out from Antarctica — forcing global sea levels to rapidly rise.

Link
TWEET

Grothar@TropicalTwits.com

Another possible area of development. Conditions: Hostile; Probability: Low (but things could change)



Quoting 105. Grothar:




Imagine if all of these became systems, yikes.
Quoting 99. 19N81W:

we actually got some really good rain today....albeit it only last about 45 mins it was coming down. I also think most of the Island got some which doesnt really happen anymore.

Lets hope for much more......

sorry carib boy:(
I KNOW you are not in East End :) It started pouring up here from last night and steady rain until about 2:30. Still very windy and overcast up here.
Quoting 74. ChiThom:


From your mouth to God's ear. (from your pen to God's eyes)


I was going to go with LOL, WUT?!

But this is much classier.
106. RobertWC Link didn't work for me (I'm using Safari).
Quoting 93. elioe:

My thoughts about the recent growth of Antarctic winter sea ice coverage is as follows:

As the amount of CO2 increases, the upper troposphere above Antarctic ice sheets loses more heat by radiation. Because of that, most of the air above the ice surface gets colder than before. It can do so without becoming unstable, even if surface temperature increases, since inland Antarctic air has traditionally been virtually isothermal vertically. The colder mid- to upper level temperatures cause the surface pressure to rise, which increases the total flow of katabatic winds. Even as the temperature of those winds rises somewhat, they remain dozens of degrees below freezing point of ocean (-1.8C). In total, the amount of heat that those winds can receive per unit time, as they warm up to -1.8C when getting above open water, increases. As a consequence, ice cover increases.

If this is the case, Antarctic sea ice cover should continue growing in coming years, the current situation being just an anomaly.

As far as is known, the Earth's weather and climate are governed by the laws of physics. These laws are expressed as mathematical equations. Professional meteorologists and climate scientists have the years of training and professional experience required to express their knowledge of and theories about the behavior of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans using the laws of physics expressed mathematically. The overwhelming majority of these professionals have been, for many years now, unequivocal in crying the alarm about AGW.
However, even though the empirical evidence for AGW is increasingly overwhelming, there has been no shortage of individuals willing to claim that, on the basis of special knowledge to which they are privy, AGW cannot and must not be true. The arguments of these individuals are typically devoid of appeals to the laws of physics expressed through mathematics, one reason being the lack of academic training and professional experience on the part of most of those who are attempting to deny AGW. Another difficulty is that arguments which are fundamentally based in political philosophy and theology cannot be expressed using physics.
The bottom line is that arguing against AGW today is the intellectual equivalent of those learned individuals who, centuries ago, argued that the Earth was indeed the center of the universe, around which the heavenly bodies revolved.
even more interesting than the nw carib spin is the area north of the dominican rep.
Quoting 114. CaribBoy:

just a little foggy
Maybe the GEM deserves more respect !.

Quoting 85. Misanthroptimist:


The problem with oscillations is that they can't affect the trend much or at all. So, your hypothesis will fail spectacularly in all probability.

Edit to add:
I decided to check to see if the AMO downswing since 2003 had any noticeable effect on the global temperature trend. It doesn't.



More to the point, oceanic oscillations neither create nor destroy energy. They only move it around. Atmospheric response (warming average temperatures) is merely a side effect of the accumulated energy, not a measure of it. Land masses are not heat sinks, and neither is the atmosphere.

In addition, Gavin Schmidt co-authored a paper ( I think it was in 2014) that analyzed the differences between the CMIP5 short term projection and the current planetary averages and laid out a pretty solid argument that had less to do with oscillations and more to do with assumptions of future events (volcanoes, particulates, pollution, etc.). Once CMIP5 was corrected with what actually happened vs. what the was projected to happen over the short term, it was pretty much dead on.

The accuracy of any computational model is only as good as the data you give it. If you assume a certain amount of volcanic activity but it turns out there was more, that's going to have an impact. If you expected more particulates but there were actually less, again that's going to impact your results. Over long periods of time such variations may average out, but over the short term (sub 30 years) there's going to be variance.

There are several papers on this subject, and I believe Dr. Rood's book on climate modeling also has a section covering the subject on a general level. Also, the IPCC report has an extensive section on assumptions and potential sources for errors/deviations.
118. elioe
Quoting 96. pipelines:



and I'll repeat my question, where are you getting "record growth" from? No where in the article do they claim record growth. It actually states that Greenland has a net loss of ice every year.


I guess he means this figure:



It shows, that this year, the Greenland ice sheet has indeed accumulated more mass since September 1 than any other year. And actually, as this year's accumulation rises sharply in mid-October, it is pretty clear that the record accumulation is primarily due to snowfall from ex-Nicole.

Quoting 112. ACSeattle:



Great comment, but why is it addressed to me?
Crazy weather were having up here in Albany NY, forecast was brutally blown for today. Was supposed to get up to 40 degrees today, got to 33; we had snow all day, was supposed to be rain. Where I am we really didn't get much accumulation wise but I know some areas around here got up to 5+ inches of Snow with really no prior warning. Lots of accidents and spotty power outages are also being reported. 82 degrees last Friday, 33 today, Northeast Falls for you.

Circulation already developing with it.
Quoting 119. masiello3:

Crazy weather were having up here in Albany NY, forecast was brutally blown for today. Was supposed to get up to 40 degrees today, got to 33; we had snow all day, was supposed to be rain. Where I am we really didn't get much accumulation wise but I know some areas around here got up to 5 inches of Snow with really no prior warning. Lots of accidents and spotty power outages are also being reported. 82 degrees last Friday, 33 today, Northeast Falls for you.

Seems like something that happens in Denver on a regular basis during the Spring/Fall. Can go from 80s to snow in 24 hours.
Quoting 63. Klipperweather:

One thing where I see a lot of lack of discussion is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.[...]
On the contrary I've seen it discussed multiple times this season, with the same answer:
2016
Jan:0.242 Feb:0.166 Mar:0.199 Apr:0.188 May:0.355 June:0.420 July:0.443 Aug:0.467 Sep:0.469 ...Uses the Kaplan SST dataset
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ka plan_sst.html
Quoting 123. stormpetrol:

Link
Very robust circulation.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about a hundred miles north of the coast of
Honduras. Development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the disturbance is forecast to move
little over the next few days, and locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Quoting 125. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about a hundred miles north of the coast of
Honduras. Development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the disturbance is forecast to move
little over the next few days, and locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Interesting, the reason is land. Let's keep watching and see where it goes.
Arctic sea ice is at a record low and could, in spurts, disappear within our lifetimes
Jason Samenow - Capital Weather Gang / WaPo - Oct. 27.

(...) "The overall trajectory is clear - sometime in the next few decades, maybe as early as 2030, we'll wake up to a September with no Arctic sea ice," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), in Boulder, Colorado.
(...)
Labe and Meier agreed with Serreze's prediction that, as soon as the 2030s, there could be a September minimum with no ice. But they cautioned that does not mean it will be gone forever.
"Ice behavior is pretty noisy," Labe said. "There's a significant component of inter-annual variability. I think it will take until the end of the century for back-to-back years of no ice."
Meier stressed there is a good deal of uncertainty as to when that first ice-free minimum will occur. "I might lean toward 2040 plus-or-minus-10 years," he said. He noted "ice-free" does not mean ice is gone entirely from the Arctic, but it refers to an area of less than 1 million kilometers because "ice will be clogged up in places, and it's unrealistic to get rid of every single chunk."
Meier said that even though many people tend to focus on the projected milestone of the first ice-free year, it's more of a symbolic milestone because the effects of shrinking Arctic ice have already begun.

Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic
Nature Climate Change - Published online 26 October 2016.

Figure 3: Global air temperatures anomalies (C) for January 2016.
These were the highest in the historical record for any January since 1880. Southerly winds from mid-latitudes contributed to the largest anomalies in the Arctic (plus 7 C) (...)



Both GFS and EURO agree that there is at least a low chance of some tropical/subtropical development in the central Atlantic next week.
Republican Vice Presidential candidate Mike Pence's airplane skids off LaGuardia runway in driving rain-no injuries reported.

I knew there was good reason to leave my shutters up Gro, not just lazyness. Late season tricks...
That's a sure crayon in the W-Atl tomorrow.




Rainy and squally condition here tonight, expected through the weekend!
Quoting 63. Klipperweather:

One thing where I see a lot of lack of discussion is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Its positive phase is north-warming and its negative phase is north-cooling. These phases affect global temperature because the Arctic and near-Arctic has more regional surface albedo positive feedback than the Antarctic and near-Antarctic. This may be linked to some multi-year-smoothed ENSO index.

AMO was on an upswing from sometime in the 1970s to a few years after 2000, and has been on a downslide in the past several years. I think polar sea ice lags this a couple years or a few years, and maybe just now a southward shift of global heat is melting sea ice in the Atlantic.

As for AMO (or a set of multidecadal oscillations) affecting global temperature: Have a look at global surface temperature indices that don't use the outlier SST dataset ERSSTv4. HadCRUT seems to be the best. A ~65-year cycle that has held up for at least two full cycles is obvious. I think this explains about .2-.22 degree C of global warming from the early 1970s to a few years after 2000. Also, it seems to me that climate models, including the CMIP5 ones, were tuned to have hindcast this rapid warming without a multidecadal oscillation and are overstating the amount of warming from positive feedbacks to warming from increase of greenhouse gases. Notably, the CMIP5 models transition from hindcast to forecast starting with 2006, very shortly after the AMO (and multiyear-smoothed ENSO) turned a corner. And since then, global warming (especially according to indices that don't use ERSSTv4) has had a serious slowdown.
Now that PDO has gone negative again for two months, the slowdown may continue until it has lasted 30 years - into the 2030s. At that time, I expect global temperature to be at least .5 degree C cooler than the median of the CMIP5 RCP6 models. After that, I expect more rapid warming to resume - almost as rapid as predicted by median of CMIP5 RCP6 models, and the global temperature shortfall from that forecast will increase much more slowly, possibly hold steady to around 2070. After then, I wonder about the multidecadal oscillation(s) continuing to hold a nice neat ~65-year cycle, but I do expect the shortfall of global temperature from the median of the CMIP5 RCP6 to continue/resume growing at some pace or another and global temperature at the end of the century will be between .5 and 1 degree C cooler than median of CMIP5 RCP6.

If I got paid a dollar for every time someone thought some magic oscillation or cycle could explain away global warming, I wouldn't need to work.
Late good night greetings with some good news for Antarctica ....

World's largest marine park created in Ross Sea in Antarctica in landmark deal
EU and 24 countries sign long-awaited agreement to protect 1.1m sq km of water in Southern Ocean, ensuring that fewer younger fish will be caught
The Guardian, Michael Slezak, Friday 28 October 2016 00.56 BST

some bad news for Spain ...

Climate change rate to turn southern Spain to desert by 2100, report warns
Mediterranean ecosystems will change to a state unprecedented in the past 10,000 years unless temperature rises are held to within 1.5C, say scientists
The Guardian, Adam Vaughan, Thursday 27 October 2016 19.00 BST

and the latest about the little storm, the medicane-wannabe, now south-east of Italy:

From Estofex, concerning the low with subtropical characteristics in the central Mediaterranean which already caused flooding in southern Italy:
Further downstream, the remnants of an old, positively tilted upper-level trough are placed over the Balkans and the central Mediterranean. Its tip cuts off and ejects towards Tunisia. A warm-core cyclone has formed beneath it over the Ionian Sea.
DISCUSSION
... Ionian Sea ...
High-resolution models suggest several competing low-pressure cores which are highly dependent on the convective activity. Therefore the overall path of this cyclone may become partly erratic, but the model pool largely agrees on a gradual southbound motion.
Storms in vicinity of the cyclone, probably embedded, will likely bring plentiful rain and strong to severe wind gusts, but are expected to stay mostly offshore. There is only a slight risk that the eastern coasts of Calabria and Sicily will be affected as well (high-resolution models like the Italian WRF and MOLOCH predict 10-meter means winds up to 20 m/s offshore).
Due lapse rates barely steeper than moist-isentropic, CAPE will only be on the order of 500 J/kg despite abundant low-level moisture. Together with mostly weak vertical wind shear, storm organization is not expected, except for the very southern rim of our forecast domain where CAPE starts to rise towards 2000 J/kg. However, upscale growth into disorganized clusters is possibly anywhere and anytime near the cyclone's center.
Remaining uncertainties about the cyclone's motion preclude a level 2, though a confined area along its final path may see widespread severe wind gusts and rough seas.



For tomorrow (surface winds).
Quoting 126. HurricaneAndre:

Interesting, the reason is land. Let's keep watching and see where it goes.


Do you think that his might be a hindrance?

*** Population Boom Adds to City Threats
Floodlist - October 27.
Researchers warn that whatever problems these new city-dwellers have will be compounded by climate change.
In case you missed this story :
Tide Gauge Records May Underestimate 20th Century Sea Level Rise
EOS - Sept. 29.
"A new study by Thompson et al. evaluates how local and regional processes affect the amount of historical global sea level rise inferred from tide gauge records. They conclude that the best tide gauge records tend to underestimate the average rate of 20th century global sea level rise."
Quoting 136. Bucsboltsfan:



Do you think that his might be a hindrance?




The lower shear from the south is working north, not sure how far though.
Hey guys it's been stormy my way for past couple of days and it's expected to remain the case for a few days to come rain has been very constant and I'm enjoying every bit of it we need it

Powerfull extratropical cyclone in South Brazil and Uruguay.

East of Uruguay had storm surge + 75 mph, and south Brazil had 80 mph. The waves could reach 4-6 meters high tomorrow.



Here some photos from my Twitter. I don't know put those images here... : / sorry.

Image 1 and 2

Image 3

Image 4

Enjoy it !! Really espetacular cyclone.

Quoting 141. pablosyn:

Powerfull extratropical cyclone in South Brazil and Uruguay.

East of Uruguay had storm surge 75 mph, and south Brazil had 80 mph. The waves could reach 4-6 meters high tomorrow.

Wow, nice ! Thanks for sharing. I was waiting for someone to report on this. Impressive videos from the coast of Uruguay on this Twitter account also :
Met Uy Estacion bcp (scroll down a bit)
Here's one : Link
And another one : Link


We getting soaked tonight :) what a relief from the heat!!
Quoting 136. Bucsboltsfan:



Do you think that his might be a hindrance?


That too
Development possibe just north of PR/USVI next week. I wish development will actually take place in the NE Caribbean lol.
Quoting 145. CaribBoy:

Development possibe just north of PR/USVI next week. I wish development will actually take place in the NE Caribbean lol.
Haha looks like ill get some action in st.thomas if it plays out
Quoting 145. CaribBoy:

Development possibe just north of PR/USVI next week. I wish development will actually take place in the NE Caribbean lol.


Did you get any today? (Yesterday by now LOL) I kept the webcam of your island on my screen all evening while I did Uni coursework...was a nice contrast to work and a nice view! But looked like some showers came ashore. Bet annoying knowing so much is so near :( Always hope for you though :)
Quoting 140. BaltimoreBrian:

Happy Halloween!

Viral video shows huntsman spider dragging a mouse up a refrigerator (with video)




There would be shots fired if I saw that in person.
nw. carib. vis. today is interesting. could it step up even more and be classified?
151. elioe
Phase diagrams from UKMET, NAVGEM, GFS, CMC and JMA all agree, that the cyclone now east of Sicily, south of Calabria and Cantabria, should have a shallow symmetric warm core by 18Z today. So, a subtropical depression, if not even a storm. FU Berlin has not named it yet, I wonder if it will?
152. MahFL
Quoting 150. islander101010:

nw. carib. vis. today is interesting. could it step up even more and be classified?


No, 50kts of shear, did you even check a shear map ?
Quoting 150. islander101010:

nw. carib. vis. today is interesting. could it step up even more and be classified?


Not with that wind shear. NHC has it at zero %.
Ya it's been some good rain....by no means as much as we used to get as these rain events only last hours maybe half a day not days.

Seems the water vapor imagery suggests the rain is done

Quoting 139. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys it's been stormy my way for past couple of days and it's expected to remain the case for a few days to come rain has been very constant and I'm enjoying every bit of it we need it


Source Fox News.

CO2 record hit as Trump Threatens Funding

Really is concerning what implications this election could play out as with respect to the rate of excess CO2 we could emit as a country if certain protocols are no longer followed...

We're losing the great barrier reef to coral bleaching down under.

Fast.

👎😯🙀👻💪💀
Quoting 153. Bucsboltsfan:



Not with that wind shear. NHC has it at zero %.
Shear forecast keeps changing....Models are not doing well with it.
Quoting 127. 999Ai2016:

Arctic sea ice is at a record low and could, in spurts, disappear within our lifetimes
Jason Samenow - Capital Weather Gang / WaPo - Oct. 27.

(...) "The overall trajectory is clear - sometime in the next few decades, maybe as early as 2030, we'll wake up to a September with no Arctic sea ice," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), in Boulder, Colorado.
(...)
Labe and Meier agreed with Serreze's prediction that, as soon as the 2030s, there could be a September minimum with no ice. But they cautioned that does not mean it will be gone forever.
"Ice behavior is pretty noisy," Labe said. "There's a significant component of inter-annual variability. I think it will take until the end of the century for back-to-back years of no ice."
Meier stressed there is a good deal of uncertainty as to when that first ice-free minimum will occur. "I might lean toward 2040 plus-or-minus-10 years," he said. He noted "ice-free" does not mean ice is gone entirely from the Arctic, but it refers to an area of less than 1 million kilometers because "ice will be clogged up in places, and it's unrealistic to get rid of every single chunk."
Meier said that even though many people tend to focus on the projected milestone of the first ice-free year, it's more of a symbolic milestone because the effects of shrinking Arctic ice have already begun.

Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic
Nature Climate Change - Published online 26 October 2016.

Figure 3: Global air temperatures anomalies (C) for January 2016.
These were the highest in the historical record for any January since 1880. Southerly winds from mid-latitudes contributed to the largest anomalies in the Arctic (plus 7 C) (...)



The metric I've been trying to focus on is 89N and poleward completely ice free. There will be ice ridges stuck on the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean for decades after that happens.
Quoting 148. Dakster:



There would be shots fired if I saw that in person.


If I had a gun I would have shot my laptop when that pic came up.....YUCK...EWWWW....NOT a good thing so see when one suffers from the worst case of arachnophobia on earth over here. :-(
Boy, Seymour deescalated quickly.
Quoting 161. VirginIslandsVisitor:



If I had a gun I would have shot my laptop when that pic came up.....YUCK...EWWWW....NOT a good thing so see when one suffers from the worst case of arachnophobia on earth over here. :-(


Another reason not to keep guns within easy reach.

The thing is swattable with far fewer risks than shooting it. But these spiders are also not a hazard to humans. My cats might have more gripe since they claim all rodents within my walls.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 156. Patrap:

We're losing the great barrier reef to coral bleaching down under.

Fast.

👎😯🙀👻💪💀