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Small Yet Mighty, Hurricane Seymour Quickly Strengthens

By: Bob Henson 4:17 PM GMT on October 25, 2016

On Sunday night, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) correctly pegged a small tropical cyclone off the coast of Mexico as being a candidate for rapid intensification, and rapidly intensify it has. Just a minimal tropical storm as of 11 am EDT Sunday, and a minimal hurricane at 11 am Monday, Hurricane Seymour was a strong Category 3 storm as of 11 am EDT Tuesday, with top sustained winds now at 125 mph. Located about 600 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Seymour is moving away from land toward the west at about 14 mph. No reconnaissance flights will be going into Seymour, but satellite imagery suggests that the hurricane likely completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday night.

Seymour could strengthen even more in the next 24 hours, as wind shear remains very light (only about 5 knots), sea-surface temperatures are very warm (28 - 29°C), and the atmosphere remains fairly moist (mid-level relative humidities of 60 - 70%). NHC’s official forecast makes Seymour a Category 4 storm with 140-mph winds by late Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, shear will increase and SSTs will decrease along Seymour’s path, and the hurricane will weaken fairly quickly as it begins curving toward the north-northwest. Seymour will dissipate long before it can threaten the Pacific coast of Mexico or the U.S.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Hurricane Seymour as of 10:30 am EDT Tuesday, October 25, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Seymour as of 10:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 25, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.


On Sunday night, NHC forecasters began noting Seymour’s potential for rapid intensification, which had become evident in both statistical and dynamical forecast models. NHC has gained skill at intensity prediction over the last few years, but the task remains much more difficult than track prediction, even at short time periods (see Figure 3 below]. Intensity changes are heavily influenced by complex, small-scale processes that are tough for computer models to accurately represent. This is especially true for rapid intensification, defined by NHC as an increase in a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds of at least 30 knots (35 mph) in a 24-hour period. Models often disagree on whether a tropical cyclone might rapidly intensify. As an operational agency, NHC strives to avoid “windshield-wiper” forecasts, where the predictions lurch back and forth every few hours based on short-term trends. This means that NHC will often be cautious in predicting rapid intensification, to avoid having to pull back in a subsequent forecast.


Figure 3. Trends in intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones through 2015. Units are knots; add 15% to obtain miles per hour. Image credit: NHC.

As far back as its 12Z Sunday run, the HWRF model--on average, the best of the dynamical models at predicting intensity for an existing storm--was consistently predicting that Seymour would become at least a Category 3 storm by midweek. Singing a similar tune was the SHIPS statistical model, which takes into account various environmental factors to calculate the odds of a storm rapidly intensifying over various time periods. By 12Z Sunday, the SHIPS model gave Seymour (then just a 30-knot tropical storm) a 54 percent chance of gaining 55 knots of strength (i.e., becoming an 85-knot or 100-mph Category 2 hurricane) by 12Z Tuesday. With very consistent messages coming from these tools, NHC forecasters began to dramatically hike their intensity predictions for Seymour late Sunday. NHC’s early-Monday forecast called for Seymour to vault from 65-mph to 115-mph sustained winds in just 48 hours, which the storm more than accomplished.

The forecast for Seymour was made easier by its modest size. Smaller tropical storms and hurricanes can both strengthen and weaken more rapidly than large ones, since they contain less mass (air, water vapor, clouds) to spin up or slow down. As of Tuesday morning, Seymour’s tropical-storm-force winds extended out only 70 miles from its center, and hurricane-force winds extended out just 15 miles.

The signals were much more mixed, and the forecast more difficult, for Hurricane Matthew when it underwent spectacular intensification on September 29 - October 1. During that period, Matthew leapt from tropical-storm strength (70 mph) to Category 5 hurricane strength (160 mph) in just 36 hours. Matthew was an unusually large storm to undergo such rapid intensification: Matthew’s tropical-storm-force winds extended out 205 miles from its center even before the storm reached hurricane strength.


Figure 4.Tropical Storm Kyant as of 11 am EDT Tuesday, October 25, 2016. Image credit: CIRA/CSU/RAMMB.

Tropical Storm Kyant a slow grower in the Bay of Bengal
Tropical Storm 3, dubbed Kyant by the Indian Meteorological Department, is gradually strengthening as it moves west through the Bay of Bengal, with top sustained winds up to 50 mph as of Tuesday morning. SSTs are quite warm along Kyant’s path (close to 30°C or 86°F), and wind shear is light to moderate (10 - 15 knots), but the storm will be moving into relatively dry air (relative humidities around 40%), which will hinder its growth over time. Kyant is predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Agency to make landfall north of Chennai, India, on Friday night as a minimal tropical storm.

Debunking the 1913 global heat record at Death Valley
WU weather historian Christopher Burt has given us a masterpiece of meteorological detective work in his Monday post, “An Investigation of Death Valley’s 134°F World Temperature Record.” Chris joined forces with geographer and climatologist William Reid to dig into the background surrounding the 134°F reading taken at Furnace Creek, near Death Valley, California, on July 10, 1913. This was eclipsed as the world’s hottest air temperature by the 58.0°C (136.4°F) reading at El Azizia, Libya, on September 13, 1922. However, the latter was disqualified by the World Meteorological Organization in 2012, which re-throned the 1913 Furnace Creek report as the world’s hottest observed surface temperature. In his post on Monday, Chris lays the groundwork for why the 1913 reading ought to be disqualified as well. It’s a long but fascinating read--give yourself time to savor it!

We’ll be back with a new post on Wednesday.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. This photo of Death Valley, California, from Dante’s View shows the Badwater Basin just below (white area) and the Furnace Creek Ranch and the national park visitors area to the north where the green-shaded area is visible in the top right portion of this image. This photo is a still from the documentary film ‘Dead Heat’ produced by Weather Underground in 2012.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

well a lunch time read thanks

snow for central lakes east showing for the week from systems moving in mid week and beyond



tropical floater page is retiring some items as listed below

USER MESSAGE:  
The manual Dvorak fixes issued by SAB for tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones in the Eastern and Southern Hemispheres, such as those found at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ are being considered for retirement. Specific basins affected are the West Pacific, North Indian, South Indian, South Pacific, South Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. The ADT based on forecasts issued by RSMCs in the Eastern and Southern Hemisphere is also being considered for retirement. Specifically, ADT output found on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html under the headers for New Delhi, Tokyo, La Reunion, Australia and Nadi would no longer be produced. All other ADT output would continue to be available to users, including ADT output based on JTWC forecasts in the affected areas. Interested parties may address their comments and concerns regarding this proposed retirement to Michael.Turk@noaa.gov through November 18, 2016.
20E/MH/S/C3
Thank You Mr. Henson; great comparison of the difficulty of forecasting short-term RI issues and the size difference between Matthew and Seymour....................Even with big storms like Katrina, which blew up in the Central Gulf before ramping down on approach to the Coast, and with many of the West-Pac typhoons that undergo RI episodes, this is still one of the toughest nuts to crack as you have noted..............Lightning in the eye wall region often proceeds an intensification event but still within a short time frame and difficult to nail down as to exactly when.

The bigger story with Seymour is that the E-Pac is now up to 19 storms this season..............................
Quoting 4. markot:

the season is not over. open up yur eyesl ook at satt..photos and quit writing your foolish comments on here.


Am going to save this commit and laugh at you. At the end of the season if we don't get any more named storms the season is over
Quoting 4. markot:

the season is not over. open up yur eyesl ook at satt..photos and quit writing your foolish comments on here.


I don't know but looking at sats gives me an indication that everything is being pushed away from us
therefore limiting any more development this season
unless that flow changes which it shouldn't with late fall now almost here
this pattern will only get stronger with each new system that pushes across the country
and shoves everything away

Quoting 2. 999Ai2016:

faster and faster
Not much potential for development at the moment in these regions; you typically have to get the pre-existing disturbance somewhere first and we have not had any recent frontal remnants that fit the bill and shear has been pretty high in these areas.................The season is not over until Nov 30th so we still have 30 something days to go: the short-term is not promising at all however.


November Hurricane ClimatologyOctober Hurricane Climatology


ill laugh at you you said this season was a bust in july .
no need too get nasty markot its ok the season will come back like in mid may next year
Seymour sits just southwest of the worst drought areas of Southern California. I haven't seen any mention of whether this could help develop rain there or in the Colorado River basin where California irrigation water gets pumped from. The Gila and Rio Grande basins are very dry too. These re-curving EPAC hurricanes have been a blessing in that they have kept moisture in an area that has seen prolonged drought and record low water levels. Further east, Elephant Butte Lake is only holding 6.4% capacity (127,254 acre feet compared to the lake's full pool of 1,973,358 acre feet).
Found this article pretty interesting with the forecast coming from "The Weather Network" in Oakville, Ontario.

Natural Gas Prices Cool Off As Forecasts Call For Mild Winter
Jayson Derrick , Benzinga Staff Writer
October 20, 2016 7:30am



Earlier in October, the price of natural gas recently traded at the highest levels in around 22 months but have since cooled off as some forecasts are calling for a more mild winter.

On October 10, the price of natural gas traded at $3.265 per million British thermal units on the NYMEX, marking the highest level reached since it traded at $3.464 in late December 2014.

However, the price of natural gas for November delivery is trading at $3.18 as of Thursday morning ahead of the EIA weekly natural gas inventories, which will be at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Weather Network: Expect A Different Winter This Year

The Weather Network offered its winter weather forecast, which is calling for a winter that is different from last year.

According to The Weather Network, a pattern is expected to play out in which a trough position near the Hudson Bay will bring "frequent and persistent outbreaks of arctic air to much of the central and eastern US." If this pans out, then the west would see milder conditions this winter.

It's still too early to tell when the relatively warm fall season will transition to the colder winter pattern. If this occurs in December, than most larger regions of the central and eastern US will see below normal temperatures for the winter as a whole and the Gulf Coast may be removed from the "above normal" category.

Meanwhile, there are indications of a "false start" to winter and we may see an initial cold snap in November but December will be rather mild.

Despite a mild December, the bottom half of winter is expected to feature an "extended period of classic winter weather" for most of the central and eastern parts of the country.

seems about right GT its what I am seeing as well sudden winter then mild spell then deep winter for 40 days or so after the new year ring in followed by a fast warming spring


but it could all change we shall see
How Goliath Might Fall — Fossil Fuel Industry to Experience Market Crashes Over Next 10 Years

There’s a very real David vs Goliath conflict now underway in the global energy markets. On one side is a loose coalition made up of renewable energy producers and advocates, individuals who are increasingly concerned about global warming, environmentalists, technophiles, people promoting a democratization of the energy markets, and energy efficiency advocates. On the other side is a vast and powerful global fossil fuel industry backed by wealthy billionaires like the Koch Brothers and various national and nationally supported corporations around the world.

Link
Florida Weathercaster Calls For Colleagues To Report On Climate Change

John Morales is not afraid to discuss climate change and its present and future impacts with viewers, a rare quality among TV weathercasters.

Morales, the chief meteorologist at Miami’s NBC 6, is the longest-tenured broadcast meteorologist in South Florida. He recently took to Twitter to express his disappointment with the media and government for failing to connect the king tides, the highest tides of the year, to sea-level rise, which poses a long-term threat to the region.

“Others with a bullhorn in South Florida should have the courage to discuss #sealevelrise on air & online like I’ve been for years,” he concluded. “Sigh.”


Link



The CATL wave is carrying a weak low pressure.

Rapidly strengthening Seymour at lower right. Large upper low with strong jet around its periphery bringing in pulses of energy headed to the West Coast. Midlatitude frontal system spinning up southwest of CA coast entraining plenty of moisture as it digs deep into southern latitudes northeast of Hawaii. First subzero temps showing up in the Yukon indicating the formation of the first Arctic air mass over North America while temps over the Arctic Ocean remain relatively mild.
Quoting 6. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

20E/MH/S/C3



Ha, there's a secondary blob like Matthew's! We're getting a new trend!
No early start to winter weather yet in S C IL, 10 day only calling for avg to mostly above avg temps. Looks like we'll beat forecast again today as already sitting at forecast high of 63 at `1 pm. 48 d.p., 30.32", light E to SE winds. Pretty good chance of rain tomorrow, then into the 70s for the weekend & Halloween. Colors really coming on now too. Hope Seymour sees you and the rest of the SW Ped!

As a Cards fan, can't root for it to end, Go Tribe!
Quoting 21. EmsiNasklug:



Ha, there's a secondary blob like Matthew's! We're getting a new trend!


Looks like a similar dynamic in play. The westerly surface inflow is colliding with the easterly trade wind flow. Additionally, the alignment corresponds with an upper level outflow channel.
Intensity models really blew it with Matthew as that storm came together. The hardest part of forecasting that correctly was going against what all the models were saying. Looking at satellite & especially MIMIC after watching storms globally and the research that came from them, it was pretty obvious it was about to bomb. There was that weird, distinct signature on MIMIC, it's seldom seen out of the Pacific..It's been researched & every time we see it, storm bombs.


From last blog..

Quoting 103. Stormwatch247:

.... How does Hurricane Matthew's damage compare to Hurricane David's (1979) impact? ...Sometimes, residents in the hurricane damaged region will tell you "it was not that bad," because they did not suffer personal losses from the storm. Others will tell you that "it was very bad," because they look at the whole area affected, or perhaps they suffered personal losses or damages from the hurricane. There could be other reasons. Maybe it was their first hurricane, and it was a traumatic experience, or perhaps the last hurricane to hit their area (David, 1979) was more damaging at their location. Maybe the evacuation was a nightmare. Some residents in the affected area might say that the hurricane aftermath is just as traumatic (sometimes worse) as the hurricane!,,- Some news reports indicate that the insured damages in the USA from Hurricane Matthew now total $7.5 Billion, much of that in wind damage claims. The storm surge and rainfall flooding damage will add to this total....... It is possible that some of Hurricane Matthew's strongest wind gusts that occurred on the Florida barrier islands and locations directly on the coast - missed the wind gauges.....

Seemed like David knocked down a few more buildings, many were older, all were pre-Andrew code built. Tree damage was really similar, maybe worse near the river for David. David was a direct hit here in Melbourne where we got to stand in the eye. It certainly hasn't been the last storm to impact the area before Matthew though..2004- Charley, Jeanne & Frances did more damage overall because of duration and number of storms. Charley blew out signs and took down weak building components. He was a fast moving maybe swirly wind with odd damage, mostly not so much to trees here. Frances was here for 3 days, really worked the trees. Cleaned out weak branches and eventually saturated the ground and uprooted many shallow, weak rooted trees on the last day. Trees had at least 1/2 their leaves on them though like they do after Mathew. Then Jeanne came along. That was wind. If you didn't need a new roof before that storm you probably did after. Shingles flew like flocks of birds rising up from the subdivisions built 2 decades prior. It stripped near all the leaves off the trees and piled tree debris in drifts, where Matthew most the debris was under or near the tree it came off of. People speculated that it would have been way worse had Jeanne hit first because things wouldn't have been nearly so cleaned out, there would have been way more loose objects flying. Having hunkered down in the same house for all the storms I can say David and Jeanne were the only two storm that rocked the foundation (where the vibration can be felt from the floor) for any length of time. Matthew had it's share of train sounds, mostly to my north or south and coming from above tree level. It did vibrate the foundation a few times but for only for a minute at most and not as hard as David or Jeanne. I rank Matthew third for highest winds in storms I've been in.

Watching the weather stations in Brevard as Matthew past, almost all of them went offline when electricity failed, others had sheltered wind gauges.

Agree too that experiences varied. Some people by virtue of disposition, under the best of circumstances and out comes, were really upset by Matthew. Others, even with alot of damage are happy with the change and check coming. Some people prefer chaos, others don't like change and there is alot of in-between. Some were happy for the break in routine and school/work, a chance to connect with other people and to clean out clutter, opportunities for extra work and such. Many times it has nothing to do if they have been through a storm here though. Other than newbies tend to run far away and can have bad evacuation experiences. When power is restored can have an impact as well. I know some that went more than a week without electricity and all but two households it was wearing on.

Commercial impact was par for even the worst storms past... nearly pretty much back to business within hours. FPL gets power to the main drags first. Usually within 6 hours of back to tropical storm force winds and like Wickham Rd here, is open for business. Wasn't surprised at all to see Biketoberfest in Daytona happen. Hotels were already booked for fun. Tree trimmers from afar and such slept in parking lots til locals took them in.

Damage/cost total in adjusted dollars and deaths should be the final judge of which storm was worse over all.


Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:
One of the best investments made here with livestock and all was putting in a shallow well with a hand pump. It really has come in handy over the years and helped some neighbors too during outages.
Already at yesterdays High (67.1) and it is forecast for 75F.

10-Day forecast for the Indian Hills PWS(North of Riverside). average 80/53(KRAL)
Seymour MIMIC There it is, the brightness temps max out well away from the center, the weird feeder lines develop. Seen stronger but that's enough for RI...
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

seems about right GT its what I am seeing as well sudden winter then mild spell then deep winter for 40 days or so after the new year ring in followed by a fast warming spring


but it could all change we shall see
Yeah man I hope you guys get some snow this winter. From talking to my relatives up there, I know last winter you guys didn't get as much. I'm also hoping we get some cold snaps in FL to make the strawberries sweeter. Nothing too drastic or long duration to kill the citrus crops though.
Quoting 24. Skyepony:

Intensity models really blew it with Matthew as that storm came together. The hardest part of forecasting that correctly was going against what all the models were saying. Looking at satellite & especially MIMIC after watching storms globally and the research that came from them, it was pretty obvious it was about to bomb. There was that weird, distinct signature on MIMIC, it's seldom seen out of the Pacific..It's been researched & every time we see it, storm bombs.


From last blog..


Seemed like David knocked down a few more buildings, many were older, all were pre-Andrew code built. Tree damage was really similar, maybe worse near the river for David. David was a direct hit here in Melbourne where we got to stand in the eye. It certainly hasn't been the last storm to impact the area before Matthew though..2004- Charley, Jeanne & Frances did more damage overall because of duration and number of storms. Charley blew out signs and took down weak building components. He was a fast moving maybe swirly wind with odd damage, mostly not so much to trees here. Frances was here for 3 days, really worked the trees. Cleaned out weak branches and eventually saturated the ground and uprooted many shallow, weak rooted trees on the last day. Trees had at least 1/2 their leaves on them though like they do after Mathew. Then Jeanne came along. That was wind. If you didn't need a new roof before that storm you probably did after. Shingles flew like flocks of birds rising up from the subdivisions built 2 decades prior. It stripped near all the leaves off the trees and piled tree debris in drifts, where Matthew most the debris was under or near the tree it came off of. People speculated that it would have been way worse had Jeanne hit first because things wouldn't have been nearly so cleaned out, there would have been way more loose objects flying. Having hunkered down in the same house for all the storms I can say David and Jeanne were the only two storm that rocked the foundation (where the vibration can be felt from the floor) for any length of time. Matthew had it's share of train sounds, mostly to my north or south and coming from above tree level. It did vibrate the foundation a few times but for only for a minute at most and not as hard as David or Jeanne. I rank Matthew third for highest winds in storms I've been in.

Watching the weather stations in Brevard as Matthew past, almost all of them went offline when electricity failed, others had sheltered wind gauges.

Agree too that experiences varied. Some people by virtue of disposition, under the best of circumstances and out comes, were really upset by Matthew. Others, even with alot of damage are happy with the change and check coming. Some people prefer chaos, others don't like change and there is alot of in-between. Some were happy for the break in routine and school/work, a chance to connect with other people and to clean out clutter, opportunities for extra work and such. Many times it has nothing to do if they have been through a storm here though. Other than newbies tend to run far away and can have bad evacuation experiences. When power is restored can have an impact as well. I know some that went more than a week without electricity and all but two households it was wearing on.

Commercial impact was par for even the worst storms past... nearly pretty much back to business within hours. FPL gets power to the main drags first. Usually within 6 hours of back to tropical storm force winds and like Wickham Rd here, is open for business. Wasn't surprised at all to see Biketoberfest in Daytona happen. Hotels were already booked for fun. Tree trimmers from afar and such slept in parking lots til locals took them in.

Damage/cost total in adjusted dollars and deaths should be the final judge of which storm was worse over all.


Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:
One of the best investments made here with livestock and all was putting in a shallow well with a hand pump. It really has come in handy over the years and helped some neighbors too during outages.
Hello Skye...We were in Moore Haven when David hit...It was impressive even though the eye was many miles from us...Charley , Jeanne , were horrible...Jeanne lasted 14 hours..Charley blasted through within 90 minutes.......
North Atlantic low between Greenland and Iceland, captured today by Suomi NPP.
Image from NASA via Worldview app. (worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov).
About 967 hPa at the time, according to earth.nullschool.net (and Met Office analysis chart, 12 UTC).
Quoting 20. BayFog:


Rapidly strengthening Seymour at lower right. Large upper low with strong jet around its periphery bringing in pulses of energy headed to the West Coast. Midlatitude frontal system spinning up southwest of CA coast entraining plenty of moisture as it digs deep into southern latitudes northeast of Hawaii. First subzero temps showing up in the Yukon indicating the formation of the first Arctic air mass over North America while temps over the Arctic Ocean remain relatively mild.


Bayfog- I appreciate your analysis of West Coast happenings. Keeping an eye on the Blob this winter and hoping it doesn't divert all our snow too far north.
Want to Survive Climate Change? You’ll Need a Good Community

Auburn Gresham, on the other hand, never lost its core institutions or its people. Stores, restaurants, community organizations, and churches animated its streets, and people hung out on the sidewalks. Older people there belonged to block clubs; residents assured me they knew who they had to keep tabs on during the heat wave. Auburn Gresham has long been regarded as one of the worst neighborhoods in Chicago; but its death rate, three per 100,000, was among the lowest in the heat wave—far lower, in fact, than many of the wealthy white neighborhoods across town.

Throughout the city, the variable that best explained the pattern of mortality during the Chicago heat wave was what people in my discipline call social infrastructure. Places with active commercial corridors, a variety of public spaces, local institutions, decent sidewalks, and community organizations fared well in the disaster. More socially barren places did not. Turns out neighborhood conditions that isolate people from each other on a good day can, on a really bad day, become lethal.


Link
Climate News Network :
Rising emissions usher in climate reality era (Oct. 24)
Humanity has now entered a new climate reality era, with carbon dioxide concentrations expected to remain above the level of 400 parts per million throughout 2016 and for many generations to come, the World Meteorological Organization says (see also comment .2).
US faces megadroughts and superstorms (Oct. 25)
Climate Central :
Renewables Poised for Rapid Growth Worldwide (Oct. 25)
Shipping Industry Mulls Modest Steps to Slow Warming (Oct. 24)
=========
Newly published research - Nature Climate Change (Oct. 24) :
Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades
The wintertime Arctic stratospheric polar vortex has weakened over the past three decades, and consequently cold surface air from high latitudes is now more likely to move into the middle latitudes. (...) The potential vortex shift in response to persistent sea-ice loss in the future, and its associated climatic impact, deserve attention to better constrain future climate changes.
I know that the GEM is not so good with tropical cyclones, but it now shows a nice tropical-like cyclone over the south part of the Mediterranean Sea on the weekend. The SST is around 25 °C in that region, so it may be possible. Other models indicate a weaker low, but with warm core also.

Seymour is officially a category 4 hurricane.
Phantasmoblob. Look in this area for possible blobation.

20E/MH/S/C4
Quoting 36. Grothar:

Phantasmoblob. Look in this area for possible blobation.




VI getting rain again. Nothing here. /:
Nice read Bob, thanks. Here in the lower altitudes of Central New York, I saw my first snow of the season this afternoon. Snow pellets actually. Been seeing wind chill forecast on the weather and lots of the leaves have fallen due to the copious rain the last week. Yup, getting to be that time my Friends. You all have a cozy winter wherever you are.
Have a good one everybody,
Thanks, Bob M.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
CYCLONIC STORM KYANT (BOB 03-2016)
23:30 PM IST October 25 2016
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Kyant over east central Bay of Bengal moved further west southwestwards in past 6 hours with speed 7 km/h and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 16.6N 89.8E, 600 km east southeast of Gopalpur (Odissa), 705km east southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), and 920 km east northeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh).

The system is very likely to slightly intensify further during next 36 hours. It is most likely to move west southwestwards towards west central Bay of Bengal during next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show central dense overcast pattern. The intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lays over Bay of Bengal between 14.5N to 18.0N and 86.0E to 90.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclonic storm. The central pressure is 998 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.4N 88.4E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 16.2N 86.7E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 15.8N 83.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 15.4N 81.9E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
====================
The sea surface temperature is around 31C, ocean thermal energy is about 100 kj/cm2. Low level convergence around the system center is about 10x10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence is about 20x10-5 second-1 around the system center. The low level relative vorticity is about 140x10-6 second-1 and is to the southeast of the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (10-20 knots) around the system center. It increases towards south and southwest direction covering west central Bay of Bengal. This high vertical wind shear conditions may prevail after 24-36 hours. Hence, there is possibility of temporary intensification of the system during next 24-36 hours under moderate wind shear conditions. Thereafter, as the system moves to west central Bay of Bengal, there is possibility of gradual weakening of the system due to high vertical wind shear.

An anticyclonic circulation lies to the northwest of the system in middle and upper tropospheric levels. It is steering the system in west southwest direction with a speed of 4-5 knots. Similar conditions may continue for next 72-96 hours leading to west southwestwards movement of the system. Majority of the numerical models are in agreement with this forecast.
Quoting 33. LMFAOmanmadeGW:

Same old story... is it Global Warming or is it Climate Change?

Does anyone know what the weird pock-marks are in Seymour's feeder bands?
Bullet holes?
Quoting 24. Skyepony:

Intensity models really blew it with Matthew as that storm came together. The hardest part of forecasting that correctly was going against what all the models were saying. Looking at satellite & especially MIMIC after watching storms globally and the research that came from them, it was pretty obvious it was about to bomb. There was that weird, distinct signature on MIMIC, it's seldom seen out of the Pacific..It's been researched & every time we see it, storm bombs.


From last blog..


Seemed like David knocked down a few more buildings, many were older, all were pre-Andrew code built. Tree damage was really similar, maybe worse near the river for David. David was a direct hit here in Melbourne where we got to stand in the eye. It certainly hasn't been the last storm to impact the area before Matthew though..2004- Charley, Jeanne & Frances did more damage overall because of duration and number of storms. Charley blew out signs and took down weak building components. He was a fast moving maybe swirly wind with odd damage, mostly not so much to trees here. Frances was here for 3 days, really worked the trees. Cleaned out weak branches and eventually saturated the ground and uprooted many shallow, weak rooted trees on the last day. Trees had at least 1/2 their leaves on them though like they do after Mathew. Then Jeanne came along. That was wind. If you didn't need a new roof before that storm you probably did after. Shingles flew like flocks of birds rising up from the subdivisions built 2 decades prior. It stripped near all the leaves off the trees and piled tree debris in drifts, where Matthew most the debris was under or near the tree it came off of. People speculated that it would have been way worse had Jeanne hit first because things wouldn't have been nearly so cleaned out, there would have been way more loose objects flying. Having hunkered down in the same house for all the storms I can say David and Jeanne were the only two storm that rocked the foundation (where the vibration can be felt from the floor) for any length of time. Matthew had it's share of train sounds, mostly to my north or south and coming from above tree level. It did vibrate the foundation a few times but for only for a minute at most and not as hard as David or Jeanne. I rank Matthew third for highest winds in storms I've been in.

Watching the weather stations in Brevard as Matthew past, almost all of them went offline when electricity failed, others had sheltered wind gauges.

Agree too that experiences varied. Some people by virtue of disposition, under the best of circumstances and out comes, were really upset by Matthew. Others, even with alot of damage are happy with the change and check coming. Some people prefer chaos, others don't like change and there is alot of in-between. Some were happy for the break in routine and school/work, a chance to connect with other people and to clean out clutter, opportunities for extra work and such. Many times it has nothing to do if they have been through a storm here though. Other than newbies tend to run far away and can have bad evacuation experiences. When power is restored can have an impact as well. I know some that went more than a week without electricity and all but two households it was wearing on.

Commercial impact was par for even the worst storms past... nearly pretty much back to business within hours. FPL gets power to the main drags first. Usually within 6 hours of back to tropical storm force winds and like Wickham Rd here, is open for business. Wasn't surprised at all to see Biketoberfest in Daytona happen. Hotels were already booked for fun. Tree trimmers from afar and such slept in parking lots til locals took them in.

Damage/cost total in adjusted dollars and deaths should be the final judge of which storm was worse over all.


Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:
One of the best investments made here with livestock and all was putting in a shallow well with a hand pump. It really has come in handy over the years and helped some neighbors too during outages.


Hurricane Charley was stronger than a lot of people give it credit.
Here's the image of the roof being blown off the Fort Myers Post Office. This is the exact thing that happened to our business in Cape Coral (roof completely blown off).

They use the video of the Fort Myers Post Office roof being blown off in a lot of Hurricane videos.
I reckon, that with the conditions favourable for both storms, that Seymour could peak as a category five, and Kyant to at least category three.
N.W.Caribbean may have some potential for development...


For our surfing friends: Big waves at the coast of Portugal must have been due to low "Elisabeth" off their coast I've posted about in the last blog.

First big waves of the season hit Nazaré's Praia do Norte
25 October 2016 | Surfing
With link to a youtube video of "Big Monday" Oct 24.
It looks like the GFS may have actually been onto something regarding the system that is currently east of the Leeward islands (Lesser Antilles). Hopefully, it will not get too near to the VI/ Puerto Rico area as some models are forecasting, and then there's that Lenny/ Omar type storm being predicted in early November in the Caribbean sea. Fortunately any such threat should come after our Imperial Independence celebrations which fall on 3rd November...Let's hope and Pray for the best.
Be ever Vigilant- remember it only takes One.

God Bless everyone!
Welcome to the Climate 2.0! With a reduction in the equator-polar thermal gradient, we have significantly amplified atmospheric Rossby waves - giant meanders in high-altitude winds that have a major influence on weather. Unfortunately, these waves enable heat (in the form "cyclone cannons" and warm air masses) to advect into the arctic and thereby reducing ice formation and increasing SSTs. This in turn further reduces the equator-polar thermal gradient and amplifies the Rossby waves even more. Yet another positive feedback mechanism that's not all that positive. :0


Seymour on MIMIC. Impressive.
Quoting 47. barbamz:

For our surfing friends: Big waves at the coast of Portugal must have been due to low "Elisabeth" off their coast I've posted about in the last blog.

First big waves of the season hit Nazaré's Praia do Norte
25 October 2016 | Surfing
With link to a youtube video of "Big Monday" Oct 24.
Incredible...Thank you...:)
Quoting 47. barbamz:

For our surfing friends: Big waves at the coast of Portugal must have been due to low "Elisabeth" off their coast I've posted about in the last blog.

First big waves of the season hit Nazaré's Praia do Norte
25 October 2016 | Surfing
With link to a youtube video of "Big Monday" Oct 24.

Portugal é um pais maravilhoso. Tenho tantas saudades.
The atlantic is dead after Nicole, not surprised really the season is closing out, also when should we start seeing Winter Storms appearing?
54. vis0
look a SEAat-L-whara? (apology to the Fujiwhara family)

ImgLand.net image

2 spins remind me of the ol XeroX rollers (paper stuck!)

As to the Chi-Land game if Chi wants to compete with the slider/chng-ips you tell all players on Chi go for bunts (if its in the ground pull the bunt back no whiffing strikes before ya know it 3 runs all on bunts and walks...don't tell sar2401 i posted this.
EP, 20, 2016102600, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1171W, 130, 943, HU
I don't know if it means anything at all, or even if my observations are correct. Last winter, I think between Halloween and Christmas we had a huge flock of geese take up residence in the flood plane of Skunk Creek behind the apartments here. This year I have only seen a few geese at all and there are none in residence along the Big Sioux river or along Skunk Creek at this time.

(The Big Sioux river makes a large loop through Sioux Falls South Dakota, and Skunk Creek flows into the river on the western side of that loop. My walk home along the river and the creek is about two miles. )

It may be early yet but that flock wintered over last year. It might have been due to El Niño. If that is the case we might have an indication of a really cold winter. Or it might be the case that I am losing my mind. Both quite possibly.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 53. Icybubba:

The atlantic is dead after Nicole, not surprised really the season is closing out, also when should we start seeing Winter Storms appearing?



may be by mid too late Nov or so models right are keeping the mid W nic and warm for now so where not going too see any winter storms any time soon
Remember that more than half of all Atlantic seasons have a storm in November, and a handful even have a storm in December yet. While our chances of another strong hurricane this season are next to none, it's quite possible that we see another storm, perhaps even two, before season's end, even if conditions look very hostile right now.
Quoting 59. HurricaneFan:

Remember that more than half of all Atlantic seasons have a storm in November, and a handful even have a storm in December yet. While our chances of another strong hurricane this season are next to none, it's quite possible that we see another storm, perhaps even two, before season's end, even if conditions look very hostile right now.


really? would you like too place a bet on that?

hurricane season 2006 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link



hurricane season 2012 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link



hurricane season 2014 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link


hurricane season 2002 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link


hurricane season 2000 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link

1997 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link


should i keep going ?
Quoting 60. thetwilightzone:



really? would you like too place a bet on that?

hurricane season 2006 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link



hurricane season 2012 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link



hurricane season 2014 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link


hurricane season 2002 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link


hurricane season 2000 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link

1997 did not have a NOV or DEC storm

Link


should i keep going ?


2001 (Noel and Olga), 2003 (Odette and Peter), 2004 (Otto), 2005 (Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), 2007 (Olga), 2008 (Paloma), 2009 (Ida), 2011 (Sean), 2013 (Melissa and Unnamed STS), 2015 (Kate). We average about 1 named storm annually for NOV and DEC
Quoting 61. RockinghamRob:



2001 (Noel and Olga), 2003 (Odette and Peter), 2004 (Otto), 2005 (Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), 2007 (Olga), 2008 (Paloma), 2009 (Ida), 2011 (Sean), 2013 (Melissa and Unnamed STS), 2015 (Kate). We average about 1 named storm annually for NOV and DEC



ok so its a tie then 50/50 that we see a NOV and DEC wish dos not mean it will happen every year
Volusia County is having 4 make up days for Matthew and one for Hermine. Brevard County isn't having any hurricane make-up days. They missed Three days. Students absent Oct 5th are also being excused.

The second link had this video with footage from both Downtown Melbourne and Jacksonville Beach.

Hurricane Matthew (Extensive Footage) - Melbourne & Jacksonville, FL
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
CYCLONIC STORM KYANT (BOB 03-2016)
5:30 AM IST October 27 2016
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm KYANT over east central Bay of Bengal moved further west southwestwards in past 6 hours with speed 14 km/h and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near16.6N 89.0E, 520 km east southeast of Gopalpur, 620 km east southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 830 km east northeast of Machilipatnam.

The system is very likely to slightly intensify further during next 24 hours. It is most likely to move west southwestwards towards west central Bay of Bengal during next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show central dense overcast pattern. The intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 14.0N to 20.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -90C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclonic storm. The central pressure is 998 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.5N 87.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 16.3N 85.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 15.8N 82.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 15.0N 80.7E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Additional Information
================
The sea surface temperature is around 31C. Ocean thermal energy is about 100 kj/cm2. During last 6 hours the low level convergence increased and it is about 20x10-5 second-1 around the system center. Similarly the upper level divergence is also increased in last 6 hours and is about 20x10-5 second-1 around the system center. The low level relative vorticity is about 200x10-6 second-1 and is to the southeast of the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind during last 6 hours decreased and it is moderate (10-15 knots) around the system center. This indicates the system is likely to intensify during next 24 hours.

An anticyclonic circulation lies to the northwest of the system in middle and upper tropospheric levels. It is steering the system in west southwest direction with a speed of 7-8 knots. Similar conditions may continue for next 72-96 hours leading to west southwestwards movement of the system. Majority of the numerical models are in agreement with this forecast.
Woah wasn't expecting this
8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 25
Location: 16.1°N 117.7°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
Atlantic Council is currently live (or recorded live, I thought) with a presentation on climate change. C-SPAN Radio or C-Span1 on the smartphone app, or via satellite or cable.
Seymour filling more clouds and looking like it's getting a much smaller eye (5 mi, maybe.). Jeez, this thing will be a Pacific C5.
Quoting 47. barbamz:

For our surfing friends: Big waves at the coast of Portugal must have been due to low "Elisabeth" off their coast I've posted about in the last blog.

First big waves of the season hit Nazaré's Praia do Norte
25 October 2016 | Surfing
With link to a youtube video of "Big Monday" Oct 24.

"18 meters" Jeez, i didn't even know Elizabeth produced waves SO HIGH.
Good morning all......


Still there, I see.....
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
CYCLONIC STORM KYANT (BOB 03-2016)
11:30 AM IST October 26 2016
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm KYANT over east central Bayof Bengal moved further west southwestwards in past 6 hours with speed 18 km/h and lays centered over central Bay of Bengal, near16.5N 88.0E, 450 km southeast of Gopalpur, 520 km east southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 730 km east northeast of Machilipatnam.

It is most likely to move west southwestwards towards west central Bay of Bengal during next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds continue to show central dense overcast pattern. The intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 14.0N to 20.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -90C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclonic storm. The central pressure is 998 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.3N 86.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 15.9N 84.2E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 15.0N 82.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.0N 80.6E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
==================
The sea surface temperature is around 31C, ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2 and decreases towards southwest. The low level convergence is about 20x10-5 second-1 around the system center. The upper level divergence further increased in last 6 hours and is 40x10-5 second-1 around the system center. The low level relative vorticity also increased in past 6 hours and is about 200x10-6 second-1around the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind decreased during last 6 hours and it is low (5-10 knots) around the system center and increases towards southwest. All these parameters indicate the system is likely to intensify temporally during next 24 hours and thereafter it may show sign of weakening.

An anticyclonic circulation lays over Myanmar. Another anticyclone is seen over northern Arabian Sea. Under the influence of these two anti-cyclonic circulations, the system is expected to move west southwestwards during next 72 hours. Majority of numerical models and IMD mme also support the above forecast.


Good morning. Storm "Elisabeth" in the Eastern Atlantic went south and is now off the coast of Western Africa (see above). It created high winds, torrential rains and a big swell for the Canary Islands the last days (Spanish report).

Here a youtube link to a video of the inundacion due to high waves in Garachico at the northern coast of Tenerife on Monday:
Inundación en Garachico, Tenerife.
Many years ago I spent a fortnight in Garachico for hiking vacations. This place is known for being hit by very high waves. I remember I saw a historic photo in a restaurant of a very damaging surf back then and got really frightened. Here a historic video of 1987 with huge waves at that place.
NIce VIIRS of Seymour lastnight..
Good Morning. Nice mild temps this morning (60's) in Tallahassee as compared to the cooler am temps in the 50's the past few weeks. I do not like cold weather (why I live in Florida) and love mild winters and especially since Tallahassee is away from the Coast and Peninsula so we are subject to cold Arctic blasts from deep fronts. If the current forecast for a milder Winter for the SE verifies, I will be personally happy but conflicted with the long-term reality that milder winters, at regional levels, are a sign of overall global warming issues and related jet stream variation (particularly in the Northern Hemisphere).........................Winter is never going away as it is a physical function of the wobble/tilt of the Earth around the Sun during the course of the year but carbon emission and heat retention makes every wild extreme in the Northern Hemisphere (bitter cold in one place and mild temps in another place) due to jet stream kinks all the more ominous.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database





Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Nice mild temps this morning (60's) in Tallahassee as compared to the cooler am temps in the 50's the past few weeks. I do not like cold weather (why I live in Florida) and love mild winters and especially since Tallahassee is away from the Coast and Peninsula so we are subject to cold Arctic blasts from deep fronts. If the current forecast for a milder Winter for the SE verifies, I will be personally happy but conflicted with the long-term reality that milder winters, at regional levels, are a sign of overall global warming issues and related jet stream variation (particularly in the Northern Hemisphere).........................Winter is never going away as it is a physical function of the wobble/tilt of the Earth around the Sun during the course of the year but carbon emission and heat retention makes every wild extreme in the Northern Hemisphere (bitter cold in one place and mild temps in another place) due to jet stream kinks all the more ominous.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database





Good morning..Been observing weather for decades , and never have seen the northern jet stream move the way it has been the past 10 years or so..The " loops " as described by some of the experts is directly related to the warming temps around the globe. It is dark in the polar regions for about three months, so the ice will remain a while longer, but may melt fully in the few decades, Greenland will be a exception , due to the thickness of the cap.
Quoting 46. hydrus:

N.W.Caribbean may have some potential for development...


Your kidding right ?, 40kts of shear....

My work on the chimney was interrupted by the thunderstorms this morning. It's still cold for me, about 45°, but the main worry is lightning when I'm in a steel and aluminum lift bucket (boom lift) 40 feet above the ground! So I called it off. At these temperatures, with a breeze, I wear a winter coat and insulated gloves. My index finger got numb yesterday from holding the hawk with a "death grip" for hours on end. All my fingers started getting cramps. I ate a banana to reduce the cramping. (That may not work...) I sat in the car with the heat on for twenty minutes and held my numb finger in front of the heat vent. When the index finger started tingling, I knew that the circulation had been restored, and I went back to work with feeling restored in that finger. Chicagoland weather; always changing.
While it's not a "mill wind" it is a chilly wind with gusts. I'm considering turning-on the heat (for the first time this season) in my shop. Then I can "clean shop" while I wait for the rain to stop.
Quoting 77. MahFL:



Your kidding right ?, 40kts of shear....


Howdy...No i,m not kidding. The shear should let up enough to let some type of development.

Quoting 67. NunoLava1998:

Seymour filling more clouds and looking like it's getting a much smaller eye (5 mi, maybe.). Jeez, this thing will be a Pacific C5.



not even close we may never see that kind of hurricane in the E PAC that was one of a life time a event that happen last year


EP, 20, 2016102612, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1197W, 125, 945, HU

starting too weak end a little
Boring peak of our rain season :/

Quoting 63. Skyepony:

Volusia County is having 4 make up days for Matthew and one for Hermine. Brevard County isn't having any hurricane make-up days. They missed Three days. Students absent Oct 5th are also being excused.

The second link had this video with footage from both Downtown Melbourne and Jacksonville Beach.

Hurricane Matthew (Extensive Footage) - Melbourne & Jacksonville, FL


Mad respect for these professionals who bring first hand action the intensity of mother nature's abilities. Having been in or near the eye of Francis, Jeanne and Wilma (Palm Beach), as they came ashore was more than enough of an experience for me, my wife and kids. Not to mention the devastation and inconveniences associated. When sand from the beach has the power to peel skin.... That said, those peeps who wish to experience the inners of a cane; save the gas or bus ticket and enjoy the wonders of YouTube.
CaribBoy, I feel for you. We're on the opposite end of the spectrum with frequent heavy rains. The ground is muddy again.
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Nice mild temps this morning (60's) in Tallahassee as compared to the cooler am temps in the 50's the past few weeks. I do not like cold weather (why I live in Florida) and love mild winters and especially since Tallahassee is away from the Coast and Peninsula so we are subject to cold Arctic blasts from deep fronts. If the current forecast for a milder Winter for the SE verifies, I will be personally happy but conflicted with the long-term reality that milder winters, at regional levels, are a sign of overall global warming issues and related jet stream variation (particularly in the Northern Hemisphere).........................Winter is never going away as it is a physical function of the wobble/tilt of the Earth around the Sun during the course of the year but carbon emission and heat retention makes every wild extreme in the Northern Hemisphere (bitter cold in one place and mild temps in another place) due to jet stream kinks all the more ominous.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database







6F January 21 1985 with a 20-30 knot wind out of the north in Tallahassee. Coldest of the 20'th century.
FSU cancelled classes because of numerous building heating issues and frozen pipes.

BTW I have never seen as many frozen pipes as I did in TLH.
Good day Cat.6 Crew. Snowstorm on the way tomorrow evening for parts of the Northeast. My brother snapped this image yesterday morning after the first snow of the season here in Easton, Maine.


Low pressure setup for the coming snow:

Quoting 57. Qazulight:

I don't know if it means anything at all, or even if my observations are correct. Last winter, I think between Halloween and Christmas we had a huge flock of geese take up residence in the flood plane of Skunk Creek behind the apartments here. This year I have only seen a few geese at all and there are none in residence along the Big Sioux river or along Skunk Creek at this time.

(The Big Sioux river makes a large loop through Sioux Falls South Dakota, and Skunk Creek flows into the river on the western side of that loop. My walk home along the river and the creek is about two miles. )

It may be early yet but that flock wintered over last year. It might have been due to El Niño. If that is the case we might have an indication of a really cold winter. Or it might be the case that I am losing my mind. Both quite possibly.

Cheers
Qazulight

All the geese are still in Manitoba. We havn't had any real cold weather yet to force them south, only a couple of mild frosts and not a single snowflake...

Quoting 86. georgevandenberghe:



6F January 21 1985 with a 20-30 knot wind out of the north in Tallahassee. Coldest of the 20'th century.
FSU cancelled classes because of numerous building heating issues and frozen pipes.

BTW I have never seen as many frozen pipes as I did in TLH.

Still trying to get used to the differences between Tallahassee (last 15 years) versus South Florida where I grew up.  Never expected the really hot summer days up here to be hotter than South Florida (have seen many temp surges into the 90's with heat indexes above 100) and the very cold sub-freezing days that I have also seen here from time to time and have had four busted pipes over the years...........Coldest I have seen here so far was one Saturday morning a few years ago when it dropped to 19......................Tally is too far inland to feel the effects of the moderating caused by the Atlantic or Gulf like in Coastal South Florida or even the Big Bend Coast.................Have seen many days when it it very hot in Tally, and cooler on the coast or very cold in Tall and much warmer at the Coast......................If course, in a few hundred years, many  Coastal parts of Florida might be a few feet under water so the sea breeze will reach us here in Tally eventually........................................  
According to some posts in stormcarib, St Croix has been pretty dry this month. St Thomas was lucky enough to get plenty of isolated heavy showers this october, like we did in september. But only a slight difference in the showers location would have made a huge difference in the luckiest Virgin Islands...

Let's face it, there were no widespread weather systems over the NE Caribbean this month... and this is clearly an anomaly !
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 79. ChiThom:

My work on the chimney was interrupted by the thunderstorms this morning. It's still cold for me, about 45°, but the main worry is lightning when I'm in a steel and aluminum lift bucket (boom lift) 40 feet above the ground! So I called it off. At these temperatures, with a breeze, I wear a winter coat and insulated gloves. My index finger got numb yesterday from holding the hawk with a "death grip" for hours on end. All my fingers started getting cramps. I ate a banana to reduce the cramping. (That may not work...) I sat in the car with the heat on for twenty minutes and held my numb finger in front of the heat vent. When the index finger started tingling, I knew that the circulation had been restored, and I went back to work with feeling restored in that finger. Chicagoland weather; always changing.


When I worked outside in the cold often, I used mittens, the inexpensive black rag wool mittens with a fold back thing so your fingers can easily be exposed for things you need to use them for. I used athletic tape (and later the newest tape with spring in it) to shore up parts of my fingers and hand against wind burn and "numb cuts". That probably wouldn't work for your winters, but it might work for fall or spring.

We finally got an official frost in NE Maryland today, 31 degrees at the top of the bay too.