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Hurricane Seymour Gains Steam in East Pacific

By: Bob Henson 3:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2016

More than three weeks of quietude in the Eastern Pacific has come to an end with the development of Hurricane Seymour, which could become the region’s sixth major hurricane of the year. Seymour gained hurricane status about 450 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 11 am EDT Monday, with top sustained winds at 75 mph. As noted by Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), Seymour is the Pacific’s first named storm east of the International Date Line since Hurricane Ulika, which dissipated September 30, and the first named storm in the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W since Tropical Storm Roslyn, which dissipated on September 29.

It was exactly a year ago (October 22-23, 2015) that Hurricane Patricia rocketed from tropical storm to Category 5 strength in just 24 hours over the northeast Pacific. Though Seymour doesn’t appear set to challenge Patricia, it is strengthening at a robust enough pace to be considered a rapid intensifier. In the 24 hours from 11:00 am EDT Sunday to Monday, Seymour vaulted from a 35-mph tropical depression to a 75-mph hurricane, and more growth lies ahead. Showers and thunderstorms have expanded around Seymour’s compact center in the last few hours, enhanced by very low wind shear (less than 10 knots) and a fairly moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidities of 60 - 70%).


Figure 1. Hurricane Seymour as of 10:57 am EDT Monday, October 24, 2016.

Outlook for Seymour
For the next several days, Seymour will be traveling west to west-northwest over very warm SSTs above 28°C (82°F), while other conditions remain favorable. Seymour’s peak intensity should arrive late Tuesday or Wednesday, by which point it is likely to attain at least Category 2 or 3 strength as suggested by the HWRF model and statistical guidance. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast issued at 11 am EDT Monday has Seymour peaking as a 120-mph hurricane on Tuesday evening. The 12Z Monday output from the SHIPS statistical model gives Seymour a 68% chance of attaining 105-knot sustained winds (Category 3) by Tuesday night and a 31% chance of reaching 115 knots (Category 4) by Wednesday morning. By Thursday, higher wind shear and lower SSTs will begin sounding the the death knell for Seymour as the hurricane begins recurving toward the northeast. Seymour is expected to dissipate by next weekend while still far offshore from the U.S. and Mexico. However, some of Seymour’s moisture could get entrained into a strong midlatitude storm expected to plow into northern and central California late in the weekend, bringing welcome rains and mountain snows.


Figure 2. NHC’s outlook for Seymour as of 11 am EDT Monday, October 24, 2016.

It’s been another busy year in the East Pacific
Forecasters had expected 2016 to produce a bit more tropical activity than usual in the Central and East Pacific. Factors in play included the projected transition from El Niño to La Niña (the latter tends to suppress hurricanes over the northeast Pacific Ocean), and the possibility that the global SSTs patterns that favored Central and East Pacific hurricanes in 2014 and 2015 might remain. (2014 was the region’s fourth most active season on record, as measured by named storms, and 2015 was the second most active.) As it turned out, La Niña has been slow in materializing, and SSTs over the North Pacific and North Atlantic have remained favorable for eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Back in May, Mexico’s national meteorological service (SMN) predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes in the Central and Eastern Pacific, which is slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 15.4 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. Likewise, the NOAA outlook skewed above the long-term mean, calling for a range of 13-20 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. With Seymour now a hurricane, the 2016 season stands at 20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, which is near the top end of NOAA’s range and considerably above the SMN outlook. The NOAA range is designed to encompass 70% of potential outcomes for seasons that share the same climate conditions and uncertainties.

This is the fifth year in a row with an above-average number of both tropical storms and hurricanes in the Central and Eastern Pacific. Counting Seymour, the region has seen a grand total of 105 named storms since 2012! If that whole five-year stretch had featured the same rate of activity as the period 1981-2010, there would have been 77 named storms.

Elsewhere in the tropics
For the first time in a long time, we’re looking at a quiet week across the tropical Atlantic. NHC expects no tropical cyclone formation through Wednesday. Among ensemble guidance from 00Z Monday, the GFS ensemble continues to favor the development of a tropical depression well east of the Lesser Antilles this week, but the European ensemble shows less than a 10% chance of this outcome, and none of the leading operational models (GFS, Euro, and UKMET) show any significant development. Climatology also leans away from development in the open tropical Atlantic by late October.

In the Bay of Bengal, a depression west of Myanmar dubbed Invest 99B (see Figure 3 below) could gain some strength as it moves west toward India this week, although models are not bullish on any major development.

We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Invest 99B as of 3:18 am EDT Monday, October 24, 2016. Image credit: CIRA/CSU/RAMMB.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Interesting thank you Bob Henson.
Thanks, Dr Bob! Quick question: how is the MJO at the moment? Unfavourable, I presume, for storm formation in the Atlantic? Or is it no longer an important factor this late in the season?
Thanks for the update.
Quoting 3. JCheevorLoophole42:

Thanks, Dr Bob! Quick question: how is the MJO at the moment? Unfavourable, I presume, for storm formation in the Atlantic? Or is it no longer an important factor this late in the season?


The MJO has been fairly low-amplitude this month, so it's probably not a big factor at present. In general, the MJO becomes less and less important as we move toward the end of the Atlantic season, when other (unfavorable) factors such as cooling oceans and a farther-south polar jet stream begin to predominate.
99I in the Bay of Bengal? It's 99B. :)

Edit: kinda hard to tell the difference between a capital i and lowercase l.
Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson.
.44" of rain here this month, .37" this morning according to CoCoRaHS.
Some excited clouds I took pictures of outside my house a few weeks ago.

Eye See You, SKINNNERRR!!!


Thank you Mr. Henson.
Seymour, such a macho image per the Seymour character from "Little Shop of Horrors". LOL!

Baltimore Brian, you beat me to it.
Quoting 11. Wacahootaman:

Seymour, such a macho image per the Seymour character from "Little Shop of Horrors". LOL!

Baltimore Brian, you beat me to it.


How about the Simpsons?

thanks for the daily update getting kinda quiet now as we progress into mid fall winter mode is a month away
Starting to get "Caribboy" cranky about the weather here. Getting close to a month now without rain with none in sight in the 10 day forecast. Hate it hate it hate it. I need to move somewhere like Hilo Hawaii.
Quoting 9. 62901IL:

Eye See You, SKINNNERRR!!!





PinHole Eye
A little warmer than yesterday, but should drop back towards 70 or below as the high this week. Best time of year.

Quoting 9. 62901IL:

Eye See You, SKINNNERRR!!!





I'm a grown man, and I can run my own life!
leftovers of 99 caused severe flooding and a drowning death in New Hampshire
In the Bay of Bengal, a depression west of Myanmar dubbed Invest 99I (see Figure 3 below) could gain some


Hey Bob that would be 99B not 99L please fix
Such a stark contrast on the blog now from a few weeks ago. I feel pretty confident that this season is pretty much over. While it was exciting with the hurricane drought in FL being broken, still haven't satisfied my itch to directly experience a hurricane.

Soon we'll be turning our eyes to 2017. Excited to see how it turns out. In the meantime, I'll be attempting to enjoy the Florida doldrums for the next several months.
Quoting 6. isothunder67:

99I in the Bay of Bengal? It's 99B. :)

Edit: kinda hard to tell the difference between a capital i and lowercase l.


That is why this font is much more difficult to read than Times New Roman. Even though independent studies done at The University of Pennsylvania and M.I.T. showed overwhelmingly that Garamond and Time New Roman was easier to read, programmers insist on using the Arial or Calibri font or others which they feel look cleaner. Included in the studies were people whose second language was English. By almost 10 to 1 they preferred Garamond or Times New Roman, since most publications in English use fonts similar to this.

My first reading and learning in German was in Fraktur font since most books were written in this when I was young. After the war it changed, but to this day, it is still easier for me to read German in Fraktur.

FRAKTUR



Cursive in Suetterlin



LOL So I guess we shouldn't complain too much. But the font used on most sites are difficult to read.

P.S. The weather was rainy when I wrote that letter.
Quoting 15. PedleyCA:



PinHole Eye

And when it was 75 mph it was much less organized.
Yep, the NHC will definetely upgrade Seymour very rapidly.
Lordy....,

The blog is dusty and needs sweeping.

Where are the servants?

Lake Charles,LA. Invest,cripple creek




Occluding frontal system and associated upper low stretching from the Pac NW down to CA. Subtropical jet synching with the westerlies brought thunder from SoCal to the Sierra foothills overnight. Winds ramping up along the CA coast as the frontal boundary approaches. No rain yet in the SF Bay Area, but threatening skies. Cyclogenesis will spin something up southwest of SF, with the system aiming heavy rain at central CA from the Bay Area south, which ought to put an end to the major fire near Big Sur. Another system comes in on Sunday. Long range has a parade of systems coming thru every few days thru Halloween.

wait wut that system

Big picture. Seymour at lower right. Large upper low west of Pac NW. Jet coming right across the Pacific with plenty of subtropical input upstream.
Quoting 5. BobHenson:



The MJO has been fairly low-amplitude this month, so it's probably not a big factor at present. In general, the MJO becomes less and less important as we move toward the end of the Atlantic season, when other (unfavorable) factors such as cooling oceans and a farther-south polar jet stream begin to predominate.


Many thanks, Bob; useful to know. It'll be interesting to see if things stayed subdued - which would mean the end of the season - or not. If we can get to mid Dec. without any more surprises, that would be welcome. That said, it's been such a strange year I suspect we're not in the clear yet.
Very interesting November likely for the Southern US and Eastern US. This is a classic El-Nino set up. That ridge over NW Canada argues for a active period across the US once November arrives.

the whole atlantic is being sweep with the cold front nothing coming for a bit if anything at all it may be done - a freak spin up short and sweet ne track
Quoting 20. Grothar:



That is why this font is much more difficult to read than Times New Roman. Even though independent studies done at The University of Pennsylvania and M.I.T. showed overwhelmingly that Garamond and Time New Roman was easier to read, programmers insist on using the Arial or Calibri font or others which they feel look cleaner. Included in the studies were people whose second language was English. By almost 10 to 1 they preferred Garamond or Times New Roman, since most publications in English use fonts similar to this.

My first reading and learning in German was in Fraktur font since most books were written in this when I was young. After the war it changed,

Ok, I'll be the first to ask. Which one Charlemagne s or Napoleon s?
Most people have Google as a search engine we have Gro. LOL
Quoting 19. opal92nwf:

Such a stark contrast on the blog now from a few weeks ago. I feel pretty confident that this season is pretty much over. While it was exciting with the hurricane drought in FL being broken, still haven't satisfied my itch to directly experience a hurricane.

Soon we'll be turning our eyes to 2017. Excited to see how it turns out. In the meantime, I'll be attempting to enjoy the Florida doldrums for the next several months.


Ask those in Daytona Beach and over in Ormand Beach about that itch as mounds and mounds of debris is lying all over the place along the coast. Friend over in Ormand By The Sea suspects winds peaked over 100 mph during Hurricane Matthew. Also many of the hotels along Daytona Beach Shores had whole sides of the hotels ripped off.
Damage is so bad in Daytona Beach that many still aren't even close to recovering from Matthew. I was there this past weekend and the damage is still pretty severe. Here is the article from 6 hours ago by the Orlando Sentinel.

Link
Damage estimates so far just in Daytona Beach alone are 67 million and those totals will likely go even higher as the claims are still being processed. I saw lots and lots of trees down, some roofs blown off, signs down, and a title company that I use in new Smyrna Beach had major Storm Surge damage with wind damage to the roof as many shingles were blown off. Seems as if the core of the strongest winds entered the Ponce Inlet area and hugged the Barrier Islands up to Daytona Beach. That zone where the Eyewall came ashore likely had winds in excess of 100mph. A definite zone of moderate to extreme damage right on the barrier islands from Ponce Inlet north to Flagler Beach.

Anyone that lives in the Orlando area on this blog should go up and check this out for yourselves as there is a sharp cut off from just trees and signs down to major structural damage right at the Coast. Basically right where the Eyewall came ashore is where all hell broke loose right on the coast. major major damage which will take many months to clean up.
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:



Ask those in Daytona Beach and over in Ormand Beach about that itch as mounds and mounds of debris is lying all over the place along the coast. Friend over in Ormand By The Sea suspects winds peaked over 100 mph during Hurricane Matthew. Also many of the hotels along Daytona Beach Shores had whole sides of the hotels ripped off.

It is not just some Tropical Depression, it was a Category 4 at the time, or a 3
Quoting 14. opal92nwf:

Starting to get "Caribboy" cranky about the weather here. Getting close to a month now without rain with none in sight in the 10 day forecast. Hate it hate it hate it. I need to move somewhere like Hilo Hawaii.

Where I live we would not stop getting rain after Matthew
Quoting 6. isothunder67:

99I in the Bay of Bengal? It's 99B. :)
Edit: kinda hard to tell the difference between a capital i and lowercase l.


Fixed! Thanks to you and Taz for the catch.
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:



Ask those in Daytona Beach and over in Ormand Beach about that itch as mounds and mounds of debris is lying all over the place along the coast. Friend over in Ormand By The Sea suspects winds peaked over 100 mph during Hurricane Matthew. Also many of the hotels along Daytona Beach Shores had whole sides of the hotels ripped off.
I just arrived home after spending a week in Daytona Beach. One thing I saw that I was not expecting was the amount of trash with French writing. I assume it came from Haiti. The smell of all the rotting seaweed and sea life was awful! Inmates were enjoying the beach, even if they were there picking up trash.
38. ADCS
Quoting 20. Grothar:



That is why this font is much more difficult to read than Times New Roman. Even though independent studies done at The University of Pennsylvania and M.I.T. showed overwhelmingly that Garamond and Time New Roman was easier to read, programmers insist on using the Arial or Calibri font or others which they feel look cleaner. Included in the studies were people whose second language was English. By almost 10 to 1 they preferred Garamond or Times New Roman, since most publications in English use fonts similar to this.

My first reading and learning in German was in Fraktur font since most books were written in this when I was young. After the war it changed, but to this day, it is still easier for me to read German in Fraktur.

FRAKTUR



Cursive in Suetterlin



LOL So I guess we shouldn't complain too much. But the font used on most sites are difficult to read.

P.S. The weather was rainy when I wrote that letter.


Kurrent, not Sutterlin. Sutterlin is loopier.
Is it possible Nicole gets retired? I am thinking no, but who knows
I think matt will be the only one for sure to be retired as for any others I don't know

Carbon Dioxide Passed Critical Threshold in 2015


On Monday, the World Meteorological Organization released another reminder of the planetary predicament we’re in: The earth’s atmosphere permanently passed the 400 parts per million (ppm) threshold last year.

It’s the first year in human history where carbon dioxide levels have reached the symbolic milestone for an entire year. But it certainly won’t be the last as humans continue to treat the atmosphere as a waste dump for carbon pollution.

You might have heard that the world reached the 400 ppm milestone permanently this September. And it did, according to data collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, which is considered the gold standard for carbon dioxide monitoring. But it’s not the only place in the world where scientists are monitoring carbon dioxide.

The WMO monitors a network of 123 stations from pole to pole. And because carbon dioxide doesn’t mix evenly in the atmosphere, some have been well above 400 ppm for awhile while others have only reached the plateau for a few months a year recently. Average them together over the year and voila, you have a recipe for a more complete snapshot of the entire atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere at an accelerating rate.

It’s not a pretty picture. Human’s penchant for burning fossil fuels has increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 144 percent since the start of the Industrial Revolution. That’s caused global temperatures to cross the 1.5°C threshold for a few months this year, sea levels to increase nearly a foot, heat waves to become more intense and oceans to become more acidic, among other impacts.

The impacts of climate change are only expected to get worse unless we slow our carbon dioxide emissions. And yet those emissions continue to rise at an increasingly rapid pace, eating away at the carbon budget.

Aided in part by 2015’s strong El Niño — but driven mostly by fossil fuel use — the jump in carbon dioxide last year was the largest annual increase on record. It’s a record but in line with trends as the growth of the global economy has coincided with an increase in fossil fuel use and carbon emissions.

The WMO warned that those rates could increase even more dramatically in the future. That’s because the planet’s natural carbon dioxide sinks — trees, plants, soil and the oceans — could eventually fill up. They’ve currently absorbed about half of all human carbon pollution to date. If they start to fill up, though, carbon dioxide will back up into the atmosphere and speed up the transformation of the planet.

Carbon dioxide isn’t the only greenhouse gas piling up in the atmosphere. Methane and nitrous oxide — which together with carbon dioxide and chlorofluorocarbons account for 96 percent of all greenhouse gas warming — also reached record annual highs in 2015.
How much the planet warms depends on how much more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases we emit.

The only sliver of good news is that a few chlorofluorocarbons have declined slightly. That’s due in part to the Montreal Protocol, which was focused on limiting these gases — used largely for air conditioning — because of their effect on the ozone hole. Their replacements are even more potent greenhouse gases (which also hit a record high this year), but a new agreement signed earlier in October will limit their use in the coming years.

The report comes out a few weeks ahead of international climate talks in Morocco. It’s a good reminder to negotiators of what’s already been done to the atmosphere and what’s at stake if the world doesn’t change its carbon polluting ways.


💀💓😨
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

Damage estimates so far just in Daytona Beach alone are 67 million and those totals will likely go even higher as the claims are still being processed. I saw lots and lots of trees down, some roofs blown off, signs down, and a title company that I use in new Smyrna Beach had major Storm Surge damage with wind damage to the roof as many shingles were blown off. Seems as if the core of the strongest winds entered the Ponce Inlet area and hugged the Barrier Islands up to Daytona Beach. That zone where the Eyewall came ashore likely had winds in excess of 100mph. A definite zone of moderate to extreme damage right on the barrier islands from Ponce Inlet north to Flagler Beach.

Anyone that lives in the Orlando area on this blog should go up and check this out for yourselves as there is a sharp cut off from just trees and signs down to major structural damage right at the Coast. Basically right where the Eyewall came ashore is where all hell broke loose right on the coast. major major damage which will take many months to clean up.


I didn't realize the eyewall came ashore in Daytona Beach. I thought the eyewall stayed 10-15 miles offshore.
Quoting 108. 999Ai2016:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I guess this week, the whole area north of the Arctic circle * is going to feature a mean surface temperature anomaly of about 5 C above the mean (1981-2010) according to this forecast (NCEP GFS) :

Image credit : Karsten Haustein (.com). The rest of October hasn't compensated for this, obviously.
Tweeted by @ZLabe on October 24 :

=========
Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold
"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Judging by the media coverage, you would believe it does.
Arctic Sea Ice Forum

* "The position of the Arctic Circle is not fixed ; as of 24 October 2016, it runs 66 deg. 33'46.4'' north of the Equator.(...)" Wikipedia.


🙀💀👻👎🌅
Quoting 36. BobHenson:



Fixed! Thanks to you and Taz for the catch.


YAY i get thanks for once your welcome
Good Afternoon; looking like a classic short-term Pineapple Express pattern for California; the rain will be welcome for a large swatch of California.......................The actually need several more of these between now and the Spring to help with the rain deficits and hopefully to produce plenty of snow pack over the Winter to shore them up for the Spring in terms of the reservoirs.  This current one is just a small/minimal drop in the bucket but perhaps a good start.





U.S. Drought Monitor forWest




Heading home; early voted today on the first day in Florida..............Not going to say who I voted for but their respective positions on climate change issues played a big part in my decision................................. :)
Seymour displaying impressive RI. Getting a case of deja vu here thanks to many people pointing out the beast from last year.
California Drought Conditions: Link

We're going to need a lot of water to make up for the drought - not just replenishing the reservoirs but also the aquifers that are vital to agriculture. wikipedia entry on water in California

Keep that pineapple express open - but we need to also get some snow pack laid down. Warm storms aren't as good as colder storms.

Unfortunately, some of the water usage rights has getting uglier with the flows going towards protecting fish over farms. SacBee on recent efforts
The National Weather Service posted a post Hurricane Michael page for Central Florida with recorded wind speeds and pressures.
The amount of damage in my area correlated well with the listed wind speed.

Link
We may get one more shot at development in the Caribbean or the Bahamas late this week or over the weekend. There's at least somewhat of a signal on most of the models that something may try to develop. If so, it would be a lot like what we saw several days ago with 99L. Messy, weak, and certainly no guarantee it gets classified. Beyond that, the season may be over, but it's a little early to say that with much confidence. Always the possibility of a rogue development somewhere in November.

It may have been posted earlier, but today marks 11 years since Wilma hit Florida. 11 years since the eye of a major has touched US shores. It's a meaningless record, of course, as anyone who's gone through Ike, Sandy, Matthew, and others could attest, but nonetheless that streak has almost surely lasted another hurricane season.




chance of snow guidance only
first of the mid-fall season's Colorado type lows on the way for mid week gales of November are not far off

(Source: The Weather Channel)

2016/17 WINTER STORM NAMES

Argos (AR-gus): A city in Greece and in Greek mythology the home of a number of kings. People have lived in this location for the past 7,000 years.
Blanche: The French word for white. From the Latin word blancus.
Caly (CAY-lee): A variation of Kaylee, short for Katherine. From the Greek name Aikaterine.
Decima (DEH-sih-mah): One of the Fates in Roman mythology
Europa (your-OH-pah): From Greek mythology, the name of a princess who was abducted by Zeus. Europe is named for her.
Fortis (FOR-tis): A Latin word for strong.
Gregory: Derived from the Latin name Gregorius, which came from the Greek word gregoros meaning watchful or alert.
Helena (HEH-leh-na): The Latin version of the Greek name, Helen. Helen of Troy was a mythological character described as the most beautiful woman in the world and appears in a variety of myths.
Iras (EYE-rus): A character in Shakespeare’s tragedy “Antony and Cleopatra”, a story about the Roman general and leader and his queen at the end of their lives.
Jupiter: The supreme god in Roman mythology, ultimately derived from Zeus plus pater, Latin for father.
Kori (KORE-ee): A version of Corey, which was derived from the Old Norse name, Korí.
Leo: The Ancient Latin word for lion.
Maya: A variation of Maia from Greek and Roman mythology. To Romans, Maia was the goddess of spring. The month of May is named in her honor.
Niko (NEE-koh): Short for the Greek name Nikolaos, which means victor of the people or people’s champion.
Orson: An English name that was ultimately derived from the Latin word for bear, ursus.
Pluto: A Latinized version of the Greek word ploutos meaning wealth.
Quid: Part of the Latin phrase quid pro quo meaning this for that.
Reggie: Short for Reginald, which is derived from the Latin Reginaldus, which is derived from Germanic words meaning advice and rule.
Stella: A Latin word meaning star.
Theseus (THEE-see-us): Theseus was the mythical king of Athens and was the son of Aethra by two fathers: Aegeus and Poseidon.
Ursa (ERR-sah): A feminine form of the Latin word ursus meaning bear.
Valerie: From Valeria, the feminine version of the Ancient Roman saint’s name Valerius.
Wyatt: From the Medieval name Wyot, which ultimately came from the Middle English words for battle and brave.
Xavier (ZAY-vee-er): From name of a 16th Century Spanish saint, Francis Xavier. His name was a Romanized version of his birthplace Exteberri, which meant new house in Basque.
Yuri (YOUR-ee): An alternate spelling of Yuriy, the Russian version of George, which ultimately comes from the Greek word georgós meaning farmer.
Zeno (ZEE-no): From the Greek name Zenon, derived from the name of mythological god of the thunder and the sky, Zeus.

Seymour taking advantage of momentarily favorable conditions, undergoing rapid intensification.

Notice at upper left, an odd little circulation with pulsing convection. A mini tropical depression? It doesn't appear to be circulating around Seymour right now.
Quoting 48. CraigsIsland:

California Drought Conditions: Link

We're going to need a lot of water to make up for the drought - not just replenishing the reservoirs but also the aquifers that are vital to agriculture. wikipedia entry on water in California

Keep that pineapple express open - but we need to also get some snow pack laid down. Warm storms aren't as good as colder storms.

Unfortunately, some of the water usage rights has getting uglier with the flows going towards protecting fish over farms. SacBee on recent efforts

Warm storms are good. They bring plenty of immediate runoff, which is good at this time of year. They can also dump high moisture content snow at the ridgelines. And warm storms have much more moisture in them than colder ones, which is squeezed out orographically. But eventually, yes, we also need the cold storms to bank a good summer runoff.
Quoting 42. Bucsboltsfan:



I didn't realize the eyewall came ashore in Daytona Beach. I thought the eyewall stayed 10-15 miles offshore.


It brushed it, but it was near there for quite a while. Depends on what you want to define a strike as...

Late night hello from Germany where a stretch of it (me in Mainz included) saw a totally rainy Monday. Today I've picked up 24mm of rain (= nearly an inch) in my backyard which is great news as it is a respectable amount in a town where it usually won't rain a lot. Hope it helps Rhine river and its shipping. The rain was due to low "Elisabeth" off the coast of Portugal. On its eastern side the jetstream pushed a band of warm and moist air all the way from the south over Spain and France to my place. Further east, in dryer air, a lot of SAL (Saharan dust) got a ride over the Mediterranean towards the north.


Current airmasses in western Europe.


Surface analysis for October 25.

Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex
A wide ridge has formed over Mediterranean Sea where warm air masses are advected to the North as well as dust from the Sahara desert. Several short-wave troughs exist over North Europe and wide low pressure system swirls off the shore of Portugal with no significant change of its center. The advection of warm and moist air masses towards the coasts of Spain, France and Italy in association with a jet stream aloft are going to enhance probabilities of DMC events.
More here.
your tuseday morning 8 am feel like temps

96 hour prog shows TS Seymour meeting the front associated with the low off SF. This low will be vertically stacked, but circulating within the larger upper low to its northwest. Not clear what the interaction might be with Seymour in this setup.
Nippy in the Anchorage bowl this morning. (+15F taking the kids to school). Could be in the single digits tomorrow morning.

I hope no one gets to "see more" of Seymour.
61. vis0
ImgLand.net image
Quoting 61. vis0:



Vancouver Hurricane
Quoting 61. vis0:

ImgLand.net image

beautiful non-tropical upper level cyclone
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Vancouver Hurricane


I guess I know where my next warm front with snow or rain is coming from.
Quoting 60. Dakster:

Nippy in the Anchorage bowl this morning. (+15F taking the kids to school). Could be in the single digits tomorrow morning.

I hope no one gets to "see more" of Seymour.






What are the odds of this happening?
Quoting 66. jamaicanweather:



What are the odds of this happening?
at forecast hr 336 about the same as winning the lottery or getting hit by lightening
Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

about the same as winning the lottery or getting hit by lightening


LOL... I think those are better odds.
Quoting 66. jamaicanweather:



What are the odds of this happening?


Near 0%
Evening all .... was looking at the pre-Seymour blob and thinking to myself... that looks pretty robust....  amazing to see yet another potential major in the EPAC..... 
Quoting 40. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think matt will be the only one for sure to be retired as for any others I don't know
Matt's gone. Nicole? Potentially, but less likely .....
Quoting 66. jamaicanweather:



What are the odds of this happening?

Unlikely right now.
Quoting 58. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

your tuseday morning 8 am feel like temps

It's been pretty cool here for the last two weeks or so .... thank goodness, as Matthew meant no A/C for the bulk of the island. Still at least 2000 homes without power.... mainly in the surge decimated south....
October Arctic temps are running up to 10 C above avg and sea ice refreeze extent is slowest ever recorded.

These are bad,bad sustained trends.

It matters so greatly in a year that will be warmer globally than 2015, which was warmest after 2014,which was the warmest then.

Expect the unexpected as the new norm for Earth Atmo 2.0.


The system trends toward chaos,faster and faster.

💀👻👎🌃😯🌃

Quoting 71. BahaHurican:

Matt's gone. Nicole? Potentially, but less likely .....


Nicole I doubt it... Matthew definitely, and a pretty good chance at Earl too.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
5:30 AM IST October 25 2016
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards in past 6 hours and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 6.9N 91.7E, about 540 km north northwest of Port Blair and 470 km west southwest of Yangon. The system is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours.

It will move initially west northwestwards and then west to west southwestwards towards west central Bay of Bengal during next 72 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 17.1N 91.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 17.3N 89.3E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 17.5N 86.1E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 17.0N 83.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
That small vortex in front of Seymour is very interesting. It reminds me of a Marco-type cyclone.


Another possibility for the EPAC?
Quoting 75. LostTomorrows:



Nicole I doubt it... Matthew definitely, and a pretty good chance at Earl too.
With loss of life limited to Mexico on Earl, I'm not convinced it will be retired.... MX has a track record of not requesting retirement unless the death toll exceeds 100.....
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

Damage estimates so far just in Daytona Beach alone are 67 million and those totals will likely go even higher as the claims are still being processed. I saw lots and lots of trees down, some roofs blown off, signs down, and a title company that I use in new Smyrna Beach had major Storm Surge damage with wind damage to the roof as many shingles were blown off. Seems as if the core of the strongest winds entered the Ponce Inlet area and hugged the Barrier Islands up to Daytona Beach. That zone where the Eyewall came ashore likely had winds in excess of 100mph. A definite zone of moderate to extreme damage right on the barrier islands from Ponce Inlet north to Flagler Beach.

Anyone that lives in the Orlando area on this blog should go up and check this out for yourselves as there is a sharp cut off from just trees and signs down to major structural damage right at the Coast. Basically right where the Eyewall came ashore is where all hell broke loose right on the coast. major major damage which will take many months to clean up.


Scott, I live in Daytona right on the river, and I can assure you there is no zone of extreme damage along our volusia county coast. Trust me I live here and drive through the area every day. And the eyewall did not move ashore, it stayed just far enough offshore to spare us the severe damage. It was very close, and we are very fortunate. That wobble saved us big time. We did not have winds in excess of 100, we had sustained in the 60's with gusts in the 80's. There was one unofficial report in volusia of a gust just over 90. We still have damage, and plenty of trees to clean up, but structural damage is minimal here. Mostly just a few shingles or a window or 2 beachside. Again, we were very fortunate. We were so close to so much worse.
The October 1921 hurricane formed in the western Caribbean, a half-century before the National Weather Service began a formal naming process.

It hit October 25 just north of Tampa Bay with winds of more than 100 mph, although there is speculation that it weakened just before landfall. As it moved inland on a northeast heading, its counter-clockwise winds pushed a 10- to 12-foot wall of water into Tampa Bay.

It flooded Pass-a-Grille, destroyed the wooden Casino in Gulfport and damaged the Municipal Pier in St. Petersburg. It carved Caladesi Island from Honeymoon Island, and badly damaged what was then a thriving citrus crop in Pinellas and throughout the state's midsection.

In Tampa, water submerged Bayshore Boulevard, flooding many of the the city's finest homes, washing away sea walls, downing telephone and power lines and rising above the gas lamps that lined the street. A pavilion and bath house at Ballast Point were destroyed, and the Tampa Yacht and Country Club was severely damaged.

http://www.sptimes.com/2002/webspecials02/andrew/ day4/story1.shtml
Friday it was 90.7, Saturday was 87.5, Sunday was 73.3, and Monday was 67.1, I hope this trend doesn't continue. Well, at least we are getting a little rain.
Quoting 74. Patrap:

October Arctic temps are running up to 10 C above avg and sea ice refreeze extent is slowest ever recorded.

These are bad,bad sustained trends.

It matters so greatly in a year that will be warmer globally than 2015, which was warmest after 2014,which was the warmest then.

Expect the unexpected as the new norm for Earth Atmo 2.0.


The system trends toward chaos,faster and faster.

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meanwhile temperatures are dropping -11C below normal here in Madeira
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONIC STORM KYANT (BOB 03-2016)
8:30 AM IST October 25 2016
==============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved further west northwestwards in past 3 hours, intensified into a cyclonic storm KYANT and lays centered at over east central Bay of Bengal, near 17.0N 91.2E, about 620 km north northwest of Port Blair (Andaman and Nicobar Islands), 710 km south southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 850 km east of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh).

The system will move initially west northwestwards and then west to west southwestwards towards west central Bay of Bengal during next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show central dense overcast pattern. The intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection in lie over Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 19.8N and 86.5E to 94.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -90C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclonic storm. The central pressure is 998 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
9 HRS 17.2N 90.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 17.4N 89.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 17.5N 86.1E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 17.0N 83.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

SEYMOUR WHAT
Quoting 57. barbamz:

Late night hello from Germany where a stretch of it (me in Mainz included) saw a totally rainy Monday. Today I've picked up 24mm of rain (= nearly an inch) in my backyard which is great news as it is a respectable amount in a town where it usually won't rain a lot. Hope it helps Rhine river and its shipping. The rain was due to low "Elisabeth" off the coast of Portugal. On its eastern side the jetstream pushed a band of warm and moist air all the way from the south over Spain and France to my place. Further east, in dryer air, a lot of SAL (Saharan dust) got a ride over the Mediterranean towards the north.


Current airmasses in western Europe.


Surface analysis for October 25.

Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex
A wide ridge has formed over Mediterranean Sea where warm air masses are advected to the North as well as dust from the Sahara desert. Several short-wave troughs exist over North Europe and wide low pressure system swirls off the shore of Portugal with no significant change of its center. The advection of warm and moist air masses towards the coasts of Spain, France and Italy in association with a jet stream aloft are going to enhance probabilities of DMC events.
More here.

Elizabeth I and Elizabeth II. Well.
Quoting 87. cRRKampen:

Elizabeth I and Elizabeth II. Well.

Elisabeth Tudor and Elisabeth Windsor, historically very correct, and with greetings to our Brexit friends :-)

Suface analysis for today with Ex-Nicole still traceable in the far north. But I guess this could be the last day with her name on the map:

(Click to enlarge)


Map with rain totals in Germany the last 48h with my town Mainz in a zone of purple (more details here). Nice!! Now sun is shining and next days should be dry.


Rain totals for whole Europe with more "purple" in Spain and France. Source: wetteronline.de.

Have a good day, everyone! Unfortunately I don't have much time to watch the weather right now, but it looks like to be quite calm anyway ...
good/morning...n.w.carib?
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:

Damage is so bad in Daytona Beach that many still aren't even close to recovering from Matthew.


Really ?

"The area's largest hotel, the Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort, had major flooding and wind damage. The cabana suites were completely destroyed, but the hotel still re-opened on Wednesday."
"Kyant" aka Bob The Third (Bay of Bengal) :
Good Morning; the big picture for Conus...............Rain in the West and Mid-West is a good thing:








Quoting 91. MahFL:



Really ?

"The area's largest hotel, the Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort, had major flooding and wind damage. The cabana suites were completely destroyed, but the hotel still re-opened on Wednesday."



Well, that's the Hilton for ya !! Next time yer driving to NW Arkansas, pull up into a Hampton Suites & you'll get a Hilton experience !!

Now we all know Scott's hair is on fire, but I'm sure some of the ma & pop hotels & inns are still getting fixed up for re-opening.


Weather related......we've just had 3 mornings in the 40's up here near Chiefland.....41,43 & 47....actually have to put a flannel shirt on to open the gate to let ma out in the mornings.......got the fireplace running to boot !!!
Now we need for the rain to keep pushing East over the next several months and particularly towards the AL/TN/GA Tri-State agricultural belt:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

I know very little about farming or animals but a good friend of mine owns an equestrian training ranch in North Florida and told me recently that each horse drinks about 40 gallons of water per day; as a result, they pumped up hundreds of gallons of water (from their aquifer well) to store in huge trofs before Hermine to have it ready for the short-term power outage period..............Sure enough, they were out of power for 4 days and the water came in handy. Imagine the strain on livestock, in addition to the agriculture, in the drought stricken areas..........That area along the TN/GA/AL line is a smaller region but just as water-depleted at the moment as parts of California.
Quoting 88. barbamz:




Oh wow. I looked at this comment. Then I looked out of the window and it has started snowing. I'm pretty much at the northern edge of precipitation, so it's not likely to accumulate on the ground. Correction: I'm actually to the west of the significant accumulations.



In Southern Finland, things are different. This is the Russo-Finnish border less than an hour ago:



Now the winter is encircling me. Do I need Elizabeth III to bring me my snow on the ground? Or even more fittingly, since the air is coming between Elizabeth and Peter, do I need Catherine ?
Here are some of the current stats for AL from an October 5th news blurb: interesting point in the issue of inland tropical storms as drought-busters:

Q&A with Alabama state climatologist on current droughtPOSTED 2:51 PM, OCTOBER 5, 2016, BY JAKE REED, UPDATED AT 07:48AM, OCTOBER 6, 2016

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. – Parts of Alabama continue suffering from the worst drought in nearly a decade. The Alabama Forestry Commission issued a fire danger warning Wednesday morning for 46 counties.

The most recent Drought Monitor now expands the “extreme drought” to include most of Jackson County, northern Marshall County, and eastern Madison County. Even a small sliver of DeKalb County is included in this category. It’s the second highest level of drought. Communities in Jackson County would need nearly 14 inches of rain to end the current drought.

Meteorologist Jake Reed reached out to Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John Christyfor more insight and perspective on the ongoing drought, and what it would take to end it. Read their exchange below.

Reed: “How does the current drought compare to previous droughts in northAlabama?”
Christy: “This is not exceptional, but on the order of 1-in-10 to 1-in-20 dryness. In 2007 it was about 1-in-100. Essentially the entire state was in D4 (severe drought) late that summer, whereas we have a few areas in D3 and none in D4 yet.”

Reed: “What is considered to be the worst drought in north Alabama and why?”
Christy: “Depends on the place.  2007 was driest in Huntsville, but other years of both dryness and excessive heat (i.e. much hotter than 2016) were 1888, 1902, 1914, 1925, 1943, 1952 and 1954.  For just temperature, 1954 and 1902 were especially bad.  Our highest ever Alabama temperature was recorded in Sep 1925 in the midst of that drought at 112F at Centerville (that was also the year Huntsville had the most 90+ days in a year- 117.  This year we’ve had 106 so far).”

Reed: “At what point should we be concerned about lake/river/groundwater levels?”
Christy: “The managers are watching these closely. Birmingham has issued a Level 1 water situation (voluntary cutbacks). The river operators have scaled back discharges on the Alabama River from 4,200 cfs to 3,700 cfs. Numerous calls from farmers whose hay cutting produced next to nothing in the past month. Groundwater has dropped, but is still above 2007 values.”

Reed: “How susceptible is the Tennessee Valley to droughts like the one we are innow?”
Christy: “We have droughts like this one about every 20 years.”

Reed: “What weather scenarios helped us get out of previous droughts of this magnitude?”
Christy: “Many previous droughts were reduced by tropical storms or decaying hurricanes that made landfall and made their way into the area.”

And here are some of the current stats for California: note the observation as to the issue of climate change and snow pack.

The 2016 water year has come and gone. Starting on October 1, 2015 and ending on September 30, 2016, the past water year brought some respite to parched areas in Northern California, which received average to slightly above average precipitation, although precipitation in Southern California remained well below average. In Northern California, spring runoff was significantly below average due to several factors, including the replenishment of depleted soil moisture, increased uptake by vegetation, and less precipitation falling as snow. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) is beginning to describe this low snowpack condition as a “snow drought,” and it is likely to occur more frequently as a result of climate change.

In a new report summarizing drought conditions for the 2016 water year, DWR shows that the 2012-2015 period encompasses the driest four consecutive water years in California since 1895, with statewide precipitation at only 62.2 inches. The second driest four consecutive years was 1917-1920, with 63.1 inches of precipitation, when California had a much smaller population and far fewer acres of farmland.

The forecast for the 2017 water year is still uncertain. The weakened La Niña conditions offer the possibility of a wetter year ahead, but forecasters remain wary. It will take a long time before the end of drought finally arrives as the state needs multiple, consecutive wet winters, and ideally cooler years, to increase soil moisture and allow the mountain snowpack to accumulate.

Despite some grim facts about the drought, California is taking important steps to glean opportunities from this crisis. At the end of September, Governor Jerry Brown signed several water bills that will help prepare the state for future droughts and address ongoing water scarcity concerns. Here is a selection of noteworthy legislation:

So far in Brevard County, an estimated 90,000 cubic yards of storm debris have been collect. Estimated amount of storm debris left by Hurricane Matthew: 320,000 cubic yards. Here is the latest info as of yesterday on debris pick up. I-95 looked about back to normal after alot of work this week. There is still some blown out commercial signs but most of the DOT work is done, signage is back and such. The brown piles in my hood still line both sides of the street.

The neighbors here that lost their roofs and such are still put out of their homes. Seen the insurance companies come, their places are tarped.

Haven't got to our barn roof. It's not enough to make a claim over. Did happen across some free roofing material. Have about 1/3rd more to go with storm debris clean up. Mostly the woods. Got the garden uncovered and cleaned up last weekend. Veggies did great in the storm. Even the tall tomato, propped it back up, gave it compost and it's growing on. Only lost one tomato of the ones it had set before the storm. Most everything was small and it was mostly on the south/sheltered side of the house. Most everything planted right before the storm has sprouted. The food trees didn't do so well. Two large banana trees fell. Left one because it has bananas on it and they aren't ripe yet. Had the white moringa snap in half. Pruned it proper, it's sprouting new limbs. House is about half un-boarded, barn is un-boarded.
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Vancouver Hurricane


Hurricane Messier
Quoting 98. weathermanwannabe:

Here are some of the current stats for AL from an October 5th news blurb: interesting point in the issue of inland tropical storms as drought-busters


That article is now 20 days old, that's 20 days without a single drop of rain for central Alabama. We now have areas of D4 drought and that will only continue to expand as we don't have any significant rain in the forecast. We have a number of small rivers that have completely dried up, that's never happened before, even in 2007.

The biggest difference between this drought and the 2007 drought is the short term accumulation. 2007 had a huge deficit all year, but it did rain every month. This year we had pretty average rain until the summer. We've gone 37 days now in Birmingham without rain and we've only had just over half an inch in the september-october time frame.

We currently are under level 3 (mandatory) water restrictions and a burning ban. Unfortunately I've woken up to smoke in the valley I live in every day this week from some wildfire burning somewhere.
Good Morning.

Having researched and studied hurricanes all my life, and after reading some entries on today's blog (and other comments the past couple of weeks), I am now more curious about Hurricane Matthew's impact in Florida and the Southeast.

After experiencing and surviving several bad hurricanes (along the Gulf Coast), it seems that there are always differing opinions on how bad the storm was - and its impacts on the areas hit by the hurricane:

- How does Hurricane Matthew's damage compare to Hurricane David's (1979) impact? Although Hurricane David's eye made landfall near Port St. Lucie, FL, as a CAT2, Hurricane Matthew was a CAT3 as it brushed the coast, a little further north.

Sometimes, residents in the hurricane damaged region will tell you "it was not that bad," because they did not suffer personal losses from the storm. Others will tell you that "it was very bad," because they look at the whole area affected, or perhaps they suffered personal losses or damages from the hurricane. There could be other reasons. Maybe it was their first hurricane, and it was a traumatic experience, or perhaps the last hurricane to hit their area (David, 1979) was more damaging at their location. Maybe the evacuation was a nightmare. Some residents in the affected area might say that the hurricane aftermath is just as traumatic (sometimes worse) as the hurricane!

- Some news reports indicate that the insured damages in the USA from Hurricane Matthew now total $7.5 Billion, much of that in wind damage claims. The storm surge and rainfall flooding damage will add to this total.

As bad a Hurricane Matthew was, it could have been worse (locally, for a portion of the coast) had the eye made direct landfall as a CAT3/4 in Florida, plowing inland. As Matthew raked the Florida coast from Cape Canaveral northward, the strongest winds of the hurricane were just offshore. It is possible that some of Hurricane Matthew's strongest wind gusts that occurred on the Florida barrier islands and locations directly on the coast - missed the wind gauges.

- Matthew's damage appears very significant and more widespread because it paralleled the coast, and affected a much larger area. Hurricane force wind gusts were recorded in FL, GA, SC, and NC. All four states also had storm surge and freshwater flooding - adding to the damage total.

WU is an awesome site during the hurricane season, and also very interesting in the off-season!



Brrrrr...I have to work on a chimney 35 feet above the ground and it's c-c-cold! at 45°
Quoting 86. NunoLava1998:


SEYMOUR WHAT

Que piada!
106. ariot
In breaking news, I almost turned the heated driver's seat on low today here in North Eastern Maryland.

I say again, almost.

I was hoping for a good frost by Halloween. The record hot days last week spawned new swarms of skeeters. Hopefully the low 40s we had today will keep them from maturing.

Exciting, isn't it?
Quoting 106. ariot:

In breaking news, I almost turned the heated driver's seat on low today here in North Eastern Maryland.

I say again, almost.

I was hoping for a good frost by Halloween. The record hot days last week spawned new swarms of skeeters. Hopefully the low 40s we had today will keep them from maturing.

Exciting, isn't it?


Yikes on the skeeters... I hope you get the cold weather you want.
Quoting 104. ChiThom:

Brrrrr...I have to work on a chimney 35 feet above the ground and it's c-c-cold! at 45



Let us know what the 10m wind speed is while you're up there ;-]
Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:

I know very little about farming or animals but a good friend of mine owns an equestrian training ranch in North Florida and told me recently that each horse drinks about 40 gallons of water per day; as a result, they pumped up hundreds of gallons of water (from their aquifer well) to store in huge trofs before Hermine to have it ready for the short-term power outage period..............Sure enough, they were out of power for 4 days and the water came in handy. Imagine the strain on livestock, in addition to the agriculture, in the drought stricken areas..........That area along the TN/GA/AL line is a smaller region but just as water-depleted at the moment as parts of California.



Me too...about 400 gallons.......over 50 chickens, 4 pigs, 2 horses & 8 dogs.

But most importantly........the 3 gallon bucket for flushing ;-]
Quoting 105. ACSeattle:


Que piada!


haha in portuguese!!!
Quoting 66. jamaicanweather:



What are the odds of this happening?


I think we can just about call it a day on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. At least we had a little more activity this year then in previous years with Hurricane Matthew. I'd say there is still a slim chance we might see one more named storm sometime in November.
In terms of this season, it's ironic that the State Met for Alabama noted the benefits of a tropical storm moving inland towards them and bringing some needed drought relief. However, it's a double edged sword. A low grade TS would probably be a good thing, but causing flooding issues on the Coast depending on how wet the storm was, and the alternative is a hurricane that causes surge and destruction on the Coast as well as a large swatch of damage, flooding, and power outages well inland..............Quite the trade-off between tropical storms or drought....................
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 111. HurriHistory:



I think we can just about call it a day on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. At least we had a little more activity this year then in previous years with Hurricane Matthew. I'd say there is still a slim chance we might see one more named storm sometime in November.