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At Least 13 Killed by Typhoon Haima; Atlantic Quiets Down

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:59 PM GMT on October 21, 2016

Potential tropical cyclones are having a tough go of it during these waning days of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters have been watching Invest 99L for most of this week east of the Bahamas. 99L’s showers and thunderstorms (convection) have never consolidated around a single closed center of low pressure. On Friday morning, 99L consisted of a small pocket of convection near its center and weak showers and storms ringing 99L’s very broad area of low pressure. The entire system will soon accelerate north and get pulled into a midlatitude storm expected to intensify over New England on Friday night and Saturday. In its 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 99L only a 40% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone before it loses its identity, and that may be generous. Moisture feeding from 99L into the midlatitude cyclone and an associated front will produce heavy, drought-easing rains this weekend from Pennsylvania to New England, with 3” - 5” expected from central New York across much of New Hampshire and Maine.


Figure 1. A broad loop of showers and thunderstorms is spiraling into 99L, shown here in a visible satellite image from 10:45 am EDT Friday, October 21, 2016.

Another wave to watch in the tropical Atlantic
It’s very late in the season to look for any development in the central Atlantic, but a tropical wave centered around 11°N and 44°W on Friday morning bears watching. Strong wind shear is now pushing dry air into the wave, limiting the amount of convection present. The shear over the wave may lessen over the next couple of days, and sea-surface temperatures of around 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), about 0.5°C above average, are more than adequate to support development. All 20 of the GFS ensemble members from Thursday night (00Z Friday), and almost half of the 50 ECWMF ensemble members, develop this wave over the next 2 to 5 days into at least a tropical depression, with some support for tropical storm formation. A weak upper low east of the Lesser Antilles may interact with this wave, complicating any potential development. If the wave does develop, it would most likely move north or northwest and remain far from land, perhaps stalling in the open central Atlantic later next week.

The next name on the Atlantic list is Otto, and getting to that point would be noteworthy. Since regular naming of Atlantic tropical cyclones began in the early 1950s, we have had only 10 “O” storms, all of them developing during the active period of Atlantic hurricane activity that began in 1995:

Opal, 1995
Olga, 2001
Odette, 2003
Otto, 2004
Ophelia, 2005
Olga, 2007
Omar, 2008
Otto, 2010
Ophelia, 2011
Oscar, 2012


Figure 2. Forecasts for the total number of hurricanes in the 2016 Atlantic season, issued by the groups shown along the bottom legend. For groups that issue more than one outlook per season, the most recent outlook is shown here. The average forecast across groups was for 8 hurricanes, as compared to the 6 that have occurred through October 21. Image credit: Colorado State University/XL Catlin/Barcelona Supercomputing Center.

The Atlantic season to date
This year’s predictions of a near-average to slightly above-average 2016 Atlantic hurricane season are looking quite close to the mark as the season begins to wind down. As of October 21, the Atlantic has seen 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This compares to the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.

The outlooks from most forecast groups (see Figure 2 above) leaned toward a higher number of hurricanes than we've actually seen. However, in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)--which integrates the lifespan and wind-speed intensity of each tropical cyclone--it’s been a more active year than one might expect from hurricane counts alone. This is mainly a result of the strength and duration of the year’s three major hurricanes: Gaston, Matthew, and Nicole. As of October 21, the 2016 Atlantic season had racked up an ACE total of 133, which is 144% of the typical ACE for the year to date and 128% of the typical total ACE for a season.



Figure 3. A resident of a home destroyed at the height of Typhoon Haima in Cabagan town, Isabela province, north of Manila on October 21, 2016. Cabagan and nearby areas on the east side of coastal mountains took the hardest hit from Hamia’s Category 4 winds. Image credit: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images)

Haima heads into China after departing the typhoon-weary Philippines
Residents of the Philippines’ northern Luzon Island are picking up the pieces and assessing damage after a powerful one-two blow from Typhoon Sarika, which made landfall as a borderline Category 3/4 storm with 130-mph winds on Sunday morning, followed by Typhoon Haima making landfall as a Category 4 storm with 140-mph winds on Wednesday night. Haima’s landfall point was only about 130 miles north-northeast of Sarika’s. At least two deaths and $80 million in damage were reported in the Philippines from Sarika. Haima is being blamed for at least 13 deaths in the Philippines, and widespread damage is expected to mount into the hundred of millions of dollars.

Haima made landfall between Hong Kong and Shantou, China, as a Category 1 storm late Friday night local time. With dry air now infiltrating the cyclone, additional heavy rains should be fairly limited as Haima moves inland and spins down below typhoon strength. The combined economic impact in China from Sarika and Haima is estimated at more than $800 million, according to Aon Benfield’s Steve Bowen. More than 6000 homes and more than a million acres of cropland have been affected in China, largely from Sarika.

In the Philippines, Baguio City (population 350,000) picked up over 14” (361 millimeters) of rain from Haima on October 20, and Tuguegarao City recorded 9.65 inches (245 mm.) Wind reports are scant across the region, but photos on the ground and satellite imagery reveal widespread destruction to the landscape and the built environment. Josh Morgerman of @iCyclone was located at Tuguegarao City, located in the Cagayan Valley about 25 miles inland. Though the city was shielded from Haima’s landfall by a coastal range of mountains, Morgerman documented widespread damage in the area (see embedded video below). Morgerman recorded a central pressure of 942 millibars at 1:24 am local time Thursday morning as Haima’s eye passed over. Thousands of people reportedly stayed in or near shelters between the landfalls of Sarika and Haima, which may have played a big role in reducing deaths and injuries from Haima. Both typhoons made landfall in relatively unpopulated stretches of coastline; this greatly limited the odds of a catastrophe along the lines of Super Typhoon Haiyan, which killed thousands in the Philippines in 2013.

We’ll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Haima taken at 1:30 am EDT October 20, 2016. At the time, Haima was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and was located between the Philippines’ Luzon Island and the coast of China. Image credit: NASA.



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Haima is misspelt as Haimi in the title. And Haiyan was in 2013, not 1993.
Thanks for the Update and stats on the Atlantic Basin; 14 named storms for this season so far.  However it does beg the question (I do not have a clue as to the answer) as to whether the current active phase from 1995 is still in progress, slowing down, etc.  There was mucho talk on here the past several Atlantic seasons, with several struggling tropical storms for several years and the prediction outlets falling short of "major" hurricane predictions, about whether the active phase was moving into a less active period and I recall a few blurbs from pro-mets or researchers suggesting that the active phase might be coming to an end.  Now we get a few majors this season and 14 storms so far.................If the active phase has not ended, then we are finishing the 21st year of an active AMO which is quite a long period of time..............Just Sayin.

 
Here is an example of two schools of thought on the active vs. non-active phase for the 2015 season: I would have to side with Dr. Klotzbach on this one but was TSR way off the mark?

http://www.carriermanagement.com/news/2015/05/31/ 140652.htm 

NOAA predicted a 70 percent chance of 6-11 named storms during the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA also predicted 3-6 hurricanes and two or fewer major hurricanes.

TSR predicted that hurricane activity would be 65 percent below the long-term average, forecasting four hurricanes and one intense hurricane (Category 3-5) among 10 tropical storms.

The 65-year climate norm would have six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes among 11 named storms, according to TSR.

“Should this forecast verify it will mean that the ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index] total for 2013-2015 is easily the lower three-year ACE total since 1992-1994, and it would imply that the active phase for Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended,” TSR said.

Still, CSU’s Klotzbach said that other active storm eras have had fallow periods like this one. And he noted that the active/inactive rubric really doesn’t apply to storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico or hitting the Gulf States. Storms that form in the Gulf are governed by a different dynamic.

“Your odds of Gulf landfall and Gulf formation don’t really change” in an inactive period, he said.  The odds of landfall decrease significantly along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast, however, he said.

Ironic how the Florida hurricane drought was finally broken by storms affecting the Big Bend and the First Coast, areas that seldom experience hurricane conditions.
Quoting 6. wxgeek723:

Ironic how the Florida hurricane drought was finally broken by storms affecting the Big Bend and the First Coast - areas that seldom experience hurricane conditions.


I am still working (little by little at my age every weekend and in 2 hour energy "bursts" supplemented by cold drinks) on clearing out the two large trees that fell in the back-yard (missing the house) from Hermine North of Tallahassee..............Should be done by this weekend as I did not want to spend $ 2,000.00 on a tree service............................... :)
Thanks Gentlemen for the updates....
Quoting 3. elioe:

Haima is misspelt as Haimi in the title. And Haiyan was in 2013, not 1993.


Thanks! The corrections are appreciated.

Jeff Masters
JTWC has mixed up the hemispheres?

Why hasn't the NHC mentioned that wave yet when 100% of the GFS ensembles, CMC, and almost half of the EURO ensembles develop it?
Quoting 8. PedleyCA:

Thanks Gentlemen for the updates....


Hope you get your rain...

Still lightly snowing... Didn't think a foot was in the forecast for snow... Luckily the ground was still warm so we only have 5 inches or so of accumulation on the ground. Fun part, the under layer is ice.
The front has arrived in Baltimore but it's a thin line
Most of the big stuff is north of the downtown core it's raining but I can kinda see daylight on the west side of it so it's not much but raining.
Rain stopped 10 mins ago it lasted about 20 mins max just some high layers now
Quoting 13. 19N81W:

The front has arrived in Baltimore but it's a thin line
And I thought you were in the Caymans...
Well, after starting 5 degrees below forecast in S C IL we've gone 2 above forecast this afternoon to 57. Just after post this a.m. in previous blog, our gust went up to almost 20, but have lightened considerably this afternoon to around 5 mph, and become more west than north. Press is down slightly and dew point up slightly, but still nothing but blue sky overhead. A beautiful fall day.
Just how unusual was the last week ?

U.S. Daily Records Summary

Last 7 Days

High Max 288
High Min 595
Low Max 42
Low Min 5

Link
Quoting 16. hydrus:

And I thought you were in the Caymans...


That makes 2 of us Cayman people now in Baltimore! Well I'm 30 min from baltimore but still :D
Quoting 17. dabirds:

Well, after starting 5 degrees below forecast in S C IL we've gone 2 above forecast this afternoon to 57. Just after post this a.m. in previous blog, our gust went up to almost 20, but have lightened considerably this afternoon to around 5 mph, and become more west than north. Press is down slightly and dew point up slightly, but still nothing but blue sky overhead. A beautiful fall day.


Low here was 63.4F, Currently 88F here, 94F at the Airport(KRAL) and 91.4F at Indian Hills PWS.
U.S. Daily Records Summary

Last 7 Days

High Max 288
High Min 595


If you're a pine beetle, or a tick , that 595 number is great news.
The front's just about passed here.......no rain......just a change of airmass.....'sposed to be 44 here Sunday morn


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Thanks to powerful new botnets, hackers now have the ability to knock major companies—even whole countries—offline.

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Just checked my Tally weather for the weekend; Wife going to ATL for the weekend this evening and I was planning a wade fishing trip on Sunday morning to my fav spot..............AM temps slated to be 46 around sunrise......Looks like I have to bust out the waders for the first time this year and a jacket..........................Everyone enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend in the SE. See Yall Next Week. 






Aristotle: “…those who are not angry at the things they should be angry at are…fools”
Lol...
Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter views Schiaparelli landing site - Phys.org - 30min ago.
More like "Schiaparelli crashing site".

European craft crashed on Mars, possibly exploded: ESA - Phys.org - 1 hour ago.
"A tiny lander despatched to Mars on a trial run had crashed and possibly exploded on the Red Planet, mission control said Friday, confirming Europe's second failed attempt to reach the alien surface."
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:



I am still working (little by little at my age every weekend and in 2 hour energy "bursts" supplemented by cold drinks) on clearing out the two large trees that fell in the back-yard (missing the house) from Hermine North of Tallahassee..............Should be done by this weekend as I did not want to spend $ 2,000.00 on a tree service............................... :)

Yard clean up is ongoing here too after Matthew. Haven't even really got to the big stuff,

Brevard County announced yesterday that it is expected to be 30-45 days or more til debris pick up from the roadside will be complete countywide. Today they announced the DOT was out assessing and clearing major roads in the area. That is in addition to the 45 trucks Brevard has contracted.
Quoting 13. 19N81W:

The front has arrived in Baltimore but it's a thin line

Is it a thin blue line?
NASA measures extreme rainfall with typhoons Sarika and Haima - Oct. 21 / Phys.org.

(...) On Oct. 21 at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued their final advisory on Typhoon Haima. Haima made landfall east of Hong Kong and was located near 23.2 degrees north latitude and 115.2 degrees east longitude. That's about 77 miles northeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph (65 knots/120 kph) and weakening. It was moving to the north-northwest at 15 mph (13 knots/24 kph) and will dissipate inland.
Taking the surprise out of hurricane season (w/ video) - Phys.org. (edit : link fixed)
(...) An upcoming NASA mission aims to improve storm intensity forecasting even more. The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is scheduled to launch in 2016. CYGNSS's eight micro-satellites will utilize Global Positioning System (GPS) signals to make surface wind measurements. (...)
finally beautiful a cooler weather on the way for south florida. hope this sticks for the whole season because its just nice to take a stroll thru town in this nice low humidity cooler type of environment. right now the humidities are in the low 40's :)
Quoting 30. knightwarrior41:

finally beautiful a cooler weather on the way for south florida. hope this sticks for the whole season because its just nice to take a stroll thru town in this nice low humidity cooler type of environment. right now the humidities are in the low 40's :)
Yep...Right on time too...First big cold front usually comes through the third week of October..
Quoting 30. knightwarrior41:

finally beautiful a cooler weather on the way for south florida. hope this sticks for the whole season because its just nice to take a stroll thru town in this nice low humidity cooler type of environment. right now the humidities are in the low 40's :)


Yup. My area this morning...

Quoting 32. Dakster:



Yup. My area this morning...



The other end of the scale, the humidity is 8-15% over here.
Quoting 27. Skyepony:


Yard clean up is ongoing here too after Matthew. Haven't even really got to the big stuff,

Brevard County announced yesterday that it is expected to be 30-45 days or more til debris pick up from the roadside will be complete countywide. Today they announced the DOT was out assessing and clearing major roads in the area. That is in addition to the 45 trucks Brevard has contracted.


Cleanup continuing slowly here on my St Johns County barrier island just north of St Augustine too. My daughter and I got what we were able to out to the curb, but no debris trucks in sight for our entire area yet. County says they have contracted extra trucks, but no timeline as to when debris will be removed. The bigger tree stuff in my back yard has to wait for her boyfriend to come back from submarine deployment to assist us. 2/3 of the fences are down also in my back yard, but are not mine - yards all around me have pools or dogs and are required to have fences, but I am not. So, neighbors are handling that part, thank goodness.
Amazing how this blogs dies out when the Atlantic game is over

No trolls at least fake progasticating

Avg: 63/35
Has been unusually dry and warm here in Denver this fall. Typically during this time of year were in the 60s and 70s and even snow but definitely not this year. Drought conditions are starting to form and fire danger is increasing with little to no rain or snow in sight.
hey you, season isn't over duh. watch and learn ok......
you don't know what your talking about.
Quoting 38. markot:

you don't know what your talking about.


Yes he does!


Quoting 35. toddbizz:

Amazing how this blogs dies out when the Atlantic game is over




Just waitin' on another Texas winter here...



5 Posts an Hour


The GFS has been consistently spinning up a fish storm over the mid Atlantic for the last couple days. Hurricane season is not done yet.
[accidental double post]
Epic news tonight...
Cyber attacks disrupt PayPal, Twitter, other sites
Reuters - U.S. | Fri Oct 21, 2016 | 9:31pm EDT
"(...) Dyn said it had resolved one morning attack, which disrupted operations for about two hours, but disclosed a second a few hours later that was causing further disruptions. By Friday evening it was fighting a third. (...)"
Quoting 44. 999Ai2016:

Epic news tonight...
Cyber attacks disrupt PayPal, Twitter, other sites
Reuters - U.S. | Fri Oct 21, 2016 | 9:31pm EDT
"(...) Dyn said it had resolved one morning attack, which disrupted operations for about two hours, but disclosed a second a few hours later that was causing further disruptions. By Friday evening it was fighting a third. (...)"



your a little bit late on the news with that
Quoting 43. NCHurricaneTracker69:



The GFS has been consistently spinning up a fish storm over the mid Atlantic for the last couple days. Hurricane season is not done yet.

I am perplexed to why the NHC has not mentioned this yet.
NOW 366 DAYS AGO:

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

The convective cloud pattern of Patricia has improved significantly
since the previous advisory. A large CDO feature and a pronounced
curved convective band in the western semicircle has developed, and
a primitive eye feature has been noted in recent passive microwave
imagery. The last report from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated a SFMR surface wind value of 56 kt, which arrived
after the previous advisory had been issued. That data, along with a
2056Z UW-CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate of 59 kt and the improved
satellite appearance, is the justification for increasing the
intensity to a conservative 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track except to widen the turn
toward the northwest slightly in 24-36 hours. The new 18Z GFS model
shifted slightly westward and is now very close to the ECMWF
solution. As a result, the official forecast track has been nudged
slightly westward at the 24-, 36-, and 48-hours, which delays
landfall by another 6 hours or so. Otherwise, the track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Patricia is expected to move
west-northwestward along the south side of a deep-layer ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest, and a turn toward the north at
36-48 hours. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement on
this track scenario, and the official forecast lies between the
GFS-ECMWF (GFEX) and TVCE consensus model tracks.

The improved organization of Patricia along with favorable
environmental and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical
wind shear of less than 5 kt, a very moist mid-level environment,
SSTs in excess of 30 deg C, and high upper-ocean heat content values
in excess of 60 units support rapid intensification of the tropical
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
consensus model through 24 hours and then is above the consensus
after that, following a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The
justification for going above the IVCN consensus is due to the low
bias caused by the HWRF model, which moves Patricia inland sooner,
resulting in a much lower intensity at 48 hours. As a result, rapid
intensification is explicitly forecast for the next 36 hours, making
Patricia a major hurricane by the end of that period. The intensity
is then leveled off at 48 hours due to the possibility of modest
southerly wind shear and some land interaction affecting the cyclone
as Patricia nears the coast of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.2N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.5N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.0N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 19.0N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 24.1N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
Western and Central Pennsylvania got hit by a storm that left a 150 mile long damage path this morning. Some places had a quick 7-8 inches of rain fall triggering landslides, many homes to flood and a pipe to break spilling 50,000 gallons of gasoline into a stream threatening the local water supply. Winds were as high as 100mph. The storm killed one man. National Guard has been called to help.
I hope someone posted the article tonight from The New York Times about the incredible ineptitude of our NOAA and their ability to predict storms. How can we be so far behind the current technology.
50. vis0

Quoting 23. RobertWC:

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weird thing is this and a strong sun flare(s) could knock some conscience into those that prefer to ignore all outside of their tiny little ....screens.(see what i did there) Technology is great, but only Good is its used to further evolution   -a nut (i'm sure others have stated this in better words)
Quoting 40. beell:



Just waitin' on another Texas winter here...





Not many other places can one observe a blizzard and an EF4 tornado in such close proximity.
Quoting 42. NCHurricaneTracker69:



The GFS has been consistently spinning up a fish storm over the mid Atlantic for the last couple days. Hurricane season is not done yet.


Yeah, well I need just 2 more Hurricanes for my prediction to come to fruition.
Cold front is pretty much over Tampa now
Hello guys it's been a little while
How is everyone
Quoting 6. wxgeek723:

Ironic how the Florida hurricane drought was finally broken by storms affecting the Big Bend and the First Coast, areas that seldom experience hurricane conditions.


Mother Nature does not know our man made names.
Quoting 51. 1900hurricane:


Not many other places can one observe a blizzard and an EF4 tornado in such close proximity.

Seems like every time things are in proximity it's close proximity. Why is it we never seem to hear of distant proximity or at least fair to midlin' proximity?
Quoting 6. wxgeek723:

Ironic how the Florida hurricane drought was finally broken by storms affecting the Big Bend and the First Coast, areas that seldom experience hurricane conditions.


I was able to experience both. I have no complaints. :)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
8:30 AM IST October 22 2016
==============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved east northeastwards with speed of 8 km/h during past 6 hrs and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 14.0N 90.5E, about 350 km northwest of Port Blair and 680 km southwest of Yangoon.

The system is most likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It will move east northeastwards and reach east central Bay of Bengal off north Myanmar coast on 23 rd October evening/night. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north northwestwards skipping Myanmar coast and then northwestwards towards northwest & adjoining west central Bay of Bengal.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show shear pattern. Convective clouds are sheared towards southwest. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lie over Bay of Bengal between 12.0N to 17.0N and 84.5E to 90.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The convective clusters are merged with each other.

3 minute sustained winds near the center in 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression. The central pressure is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
======================
The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. It increases towards northeast sector. Low level convergence around the system center remained same during past six hours and is about 10x10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence also remained same over the area during past six hours and is about 20x10-5 second-1. The low level relative vorticity is about 150x10-6 second-1 and vorticity center lies to the east northeast of the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-20 knots) around the system center and it decreases towards northeast becoming 5-10 knots near Arakan & adjoining Tenasserim coast. Upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in phase 1 and is expected to move to phase 8 during next 3 days. The amplitude is very less. Though phase 1 and 8 of Madden-Julian Oscillation are not favorable, the very less amplitude in this phase will not inhibits the intensification of the system. The system is being steered to move east northeastwards under the influence of low to middle level winds in westerlies.
Good morning Cat.6 crew.
Looks like some areas of the Northeast may have received more rain in the past two days than they've received in the past 6 months. Too bad the front hadn't moved more to the eastern seaboard and given some relief to dry coastal regions.

Mount Washington became this year's Northeast winner (yet again) by recording the first measurable snowfall yesterday. A "whopping" 0.01 inches! ;) ...the western ranges are laughing.
Quoting 49. ozelloslim:

I hope someone posted the article tonight from The New York Times about the incredible ineptitude of our NOAA and their ability to predict storms. How can we be so far behind the current technology.


i hope someone posts an article from one of the thousands of meteorologists about how NOAA has made great strides in advancing our understanding and ability to make timely and accurate forecasts.
You can't just take the latest "current technology", shove it into a satellite, and have it performing in orbit instantaneously. We forget that in today's fast-paced world. Even the new GOES-R (which launches next month with highly improved resolution and technology on-board) has instrumentation that was developed years ago. ...the space age takes many months or years to catch up to, and incorporate the latest and best. (imo)
A rainfall comparison for Portland, Maine:
August 1st through October 20 (81 days total): 3.96"
On October 21st: (1 day total) 3.81"

Also: "A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.01 INCHES WAS SET AT CONCORD NH YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.48 SET IN 1996." ~ NWS
disturbance north of hispanola.....
Quoting 34. pvbeachbum:



Cleanup continuing slowly here on my St Johns County barrier island just north of St Augustine too. My daughter and I got what we were able to out to the curb, but no debris trucks in sight for our entire area yet. County says they have contracted extra trucks, but no timeline as to when debris will be removed. The bigger tree stuff in my back yard has to wait for her boyfriend to come back from submarine deployment to assist us. 2/3 of the fences are down also in my back yard, but are not mine - yards all around me have pools or dogs and are required to have fences, but I am not. So, neighbors are handling that part, thank goodness.


hey, anastasia island here. we're still staring at debris piles too. its overwhelming to think of how much work there is yet to be done. going today to clear some property myself for an upcoming wedding!
anyway, my roommate works with the city's end of the debris removal trucks, and even they are projecting another 2 months or so of work for the guys.
good luck on your cleanup!
Quoting 58. HadesGodWyvern:

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
8:30 AM IST October 22 2016
==============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved east northeastwards with speed of 8 km/h during past 6 hrs and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 14.0N 90.5E, about 350 km northwest of Port Blair and 680 km southwest of Yangoon.

The system is most likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It will move east northeastwards and reach east central Bay of Bengal off north Myanmar coast on 23 rd October evening/night. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north northwestwards skipping Myanmar coast and then northwestwards towards northwest & adjoining west central Bay of Bengal.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show shear pattern. Convective clouds are sheared towards southwest. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lie over Bay of Bengal between 12.0N to 17.0N and 84.5E to 90.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The convective clusters are merged with each other.

3 minute sustained winds near the center in 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression. The central pressure is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
======================
The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. It increases towards northeast sector. Low level convergence around the system center remained same during past six hours and is about 10x10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence also remained same over the area during past six hours and is about 20x10-5 second-1. The low level relative vorticity is about 150x10-6 second-1 and vorticity center lies to the east northeast of the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-20 knots) around the system center and it decreases towards northeast becoming 5-10 knots near Arakan & adjoining Tenasserim coast. Upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in phase 1 and is expected to move to phase 8 during next 3 days. The amplitude is very less. Though phase 1 and 8 of Madden-Julian Oscillation are not favorable, the very less amplitude in this phase will not inhibits the intensification of the system. The system is being steered to move east northeastwards under the influence of low to middle level winds in westerlies.
Quoting 47. pablosyn:

NOW 366 DAYS AGO:

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

The convective cloud pattern of Patricia has improved significantly
since the previous advisory. A large CDO feature and a pronounced
curved convective band in the western semicircle has developed, and
a primitive eye feature has been noted in recent passive microwave
imagery. The last report from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated a SFMR surface wind value of 56 kt, which arrived
after the previous advisory had been issued. That data, along with a
2056Z UW-CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate of 59 kt and the improved
satellite appearance, is the justification for increasing the
intensity to a conservative 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track except to widen the turn
toward the northwest slightly in 24-36 hours. The new 18Z GFS model
shifted slightly westward and is now very close to the ECMWF
solution. As a result, the official forecast track has been nudged
slightly westward at the 24-, 36-, and 48-hours, which delays
landfall by another 6 hours or so. Otherwise, the track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Patricia is expected to move
west-northwestward along the south side of a deep-layer ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest, and a turn toward the north at
36-48 hours. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement on
this track scenario, and the official forecast lies between the
GFS-ECMWF (GFEX) and TVCE consensus model tracks.

The improved organization of Patricia along with favorable
environmental and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical
wind shear of less than 5 kt, a very moist mid-level environment,
SSTs in excess of 30 deg C, and high upper-ocean heat content values
in excess of 60 units support rapid intensification of the tropical
cyclone.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
consensus model through 24 hours and then is above the consensus
after that.
INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.2N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.5N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.0N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 19.0N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 24.1N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
Normally wouldnt say this, but I knew that was wrong...Little ole predicted right here on the blog it would be a cat-4 , and possibly a cat-5...30-C of temp with shear 5 knots or less you can forget the cat -3 stuff...
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016 - already above average!

Very good update, and very informative.

It is interesting that 10 named storms beginning with the letter "O," formed in the Atlantic Basin - since the active era began in 1995. The Atlantic basin has also observed 7 named storms beginning with the letter "P."

Although 99L is not expected to develop, it appears more impressive on satellite this morning.

It would not be surprising if we have 1 or 2 more named storms this season.
Quoting 56. ACSeattle:


Seems like every time things are in proximity it's close proximity. Why is it we never seem to hear of distant proximity or at least fair to midlin' proximity?
Its like saying "hot-water heater."
Quoting 30. knightwarrior41:

finally beautiful a cooler weather on the way for south florida. hope this sticks for the whole season because its just nice to take a stroll thru town in this nice low humidity cooler type of environment. right now the humidities are in the low 40's :)
I really hate this boring weather we are having here in South Miami Dade county. If I wanted cooler weather and drier weather I would move North, I miss the afternoon T Storms and a chance for a Hurricane strike you might get during the summer. At least you people up North, and out in the Mid West get some exciting Snow and Ice Storms, also you get some exciting severe weather during the cold, Winter months, all we get is cool, clear skies, how boring.
Lol I am confused as to where Invest 99L is supposed to be:

Quoting 63. darbyderp:



hey, anastasia island here. we're still staring at debris piles too. its overwhelming to think of how much work there is yet to be done. going today to clear some property myself for an upcoming wedding!
anyway, my roommate works with the city's end of the debris removal trucks, and even they are projecting another 2 months or so of work for the guys.
good luck on your cleanup!


Hi all...Downtown Saint Augustine here ...Marine Street. I had the entire bay in my yard...2 ft thick pile of debris and it fills the street curb waist high now. Luckily I actually bricked up my doors and the water stopped 4 inches from the top..neighbors not so lucky...very sad!
Quoting 69. NativeSun:

I really hate this boring weather we are having here in South Miami Dade county. If I wanted cooler weather and drier weather I would move North, I miss the afternoon T Storms and a chance for a Hurricane strike you might get during the summer. At least you people up North, and out in the Mid West get some exciting Snow and Ice Storms, also you get some exciting severe weather during the cold, Winter months, all we get is cool, clear skies, how boring.


Hey, if we manage to get below the 30s and have some moisture in the air we may get a wet road or some sort of slush. C:
Quoting 71. cameronstaugustine:



Hi all...Downtown Saint Augustine here ...Marine Street. I had the entire bay in my yard...2 ft thick pile of debris and it fills the street curb waist high now. Luckily I actually bricked up my doors and the water stopped 4 inches from the top..neighbors not so lucky...very sad!


How did you brick-up the doors? Did you use mortar?
Quoting 70. AlphaBetaGamma01:

Lol I am confused as to where Invest 99L is supposed to be:






dont even worry about 99L 99L is dead any ways nothing too see here time too move on
Good morning from Sunny Antigua. Great weather here. Someone broke into my house and stole a few things including the card from my dish receiver, now I can't watch TV. What good is a card without the receiver or vice versa? This is beyond me....... Have a great day every one
39 days remain of 2016 Hurricane Season

could their be one more we got 39 days too see
Quoting 73. ChiThom:



How did you brick-up the doors? Did you use mortar?


Yes, actual mortar. Figured that when they kept moving the storm West it was the real deal and I saw how bad flooding was during Flyod in 99. Flyod was something like 200+ miles offshore - figured Matthew would be much worse and it was. I finished the brick job late Wed and that gave 1.5 days to set up. The water literally stopped 4 inches from the top. Tearing the bricks down was easy because the mortar hadn't fully cured - meaning it was rock hard but it came off the walls and brick easily vs had it set up a few weeks which would have made tearing down more difficult
Quoting 78. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Negatively-tilted trough, bringing that blob of moisture right into my state! :)
79. cameronstaugustine:


How many people in your neighborhood do you think bricked-up their doors? Not many, I think.

P.S. That was a great idea!
Beautiful sat loop :-)
Quoting 74. thetwilightzone:





dont even worry about 99L 99L is dead any ways nothing too see here time too move on
Actually, there is an interesting persisting feature in the mid Atlantic, approaching 13N, 48W, even Dr. Master mentioned it. Perhaps climatology is against it, but is there.. should be watch...
too far out in time to believe but folks in the Bahamas may want to watch this one closely...
Surprised we may not even get a subtropical storm or Otto out of 99L. November may spawn some storms with these water temps still pretty much boiling, keep an eye out especially in West Carribbean
Season is still "active" for certain regions of the Atlantic Basin. I think we'll see one or two more named systems before the end of the season.
But I believe the season is over for the U.S. I've been saying this every since Matthew pulled down Fall like conditions into the GOM, S.E., and Florida. Pretty much shoved all the tropical air well to the south and east of the U.S. With these active fronts dropping down, I don't see any tropical air making it back up to the U.S., even into Florida for the rest of the season.
Quoting 48. Skyepony:

Western and Central Pennsylvania got hit by a storm that left a 150 mile long damage path this morning. Some places had a quick 7-8 inches of rain fall triggering landslides, many homes to flood and a pipe to break spilling 50,000 gallons of gasoline into a stream threatening the local water supply. Winds were as high as 100mph. The storm killed one man. National Guard has been called to help.


NOAA Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction




Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing;storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Quoting 76. wadadlian:

Good morning from Sunny Antigua. Great weather here. Someone broke into my house and stole a few things including the card from my dish receiver, now I can't watch TV. What good is a card without the receiver or vice versa? This is beyond me....... Have a great day every one


I'm so sorry to hear about your recent troubles...let's hope the perpetrator has a change of heart for his/her own good.
Weather wise- the wave to the east of the islands certainly bears watching. Hopefully nothing much will come out of it...nevertheless, let's all keep vigilant in this latter half of the season. 'It only takes one...'

God Bless Everyone!
Good morning

It's already 87, feeling like 100 on the island so far today. It's beach weather except that there are advisories out for all of them at the moment due to all the rain runoff the last week or so. Thought maybe I'd take a trip to Water Island instead, only after speaking with friends that live over there, found out that island is about to sprout wings and fly off with the mosquito problem. Seems the grandbaby and I are staying home this weekend!

Speaking of skeeters, the latest on the zika virus on the islands is as follows:

"The total number of confirmed Zika cases overall surged to 589, with D.O.H. confirming 65 new cases this week. Per island breakdown sees St. Thomas leading with 470 cases, followed by St. Croix with 86, and St. John comes in third with 33."

Suffice it to say, even though I was one of the unlucky ones to have had this virus, my favorite perfume, Eau de Off, a la Deep Woods variety, has a place of honor on my desk. There are three in this house who haven't come down with Zika yet and we're doing our best to avoid it happening to them.

Hoping all is well with everybody!

Lindy



Quoting 72. isothunder67:



Hey, if we manage to get below the 30s and have some moisture in the air we may get a wet road or some sort of slush. C:
Just what we need down here, snow or slush on the road, maybe some ice. The drivers down here are bad enough on a clear, sunny day, can you imagine them trying to drive on slushy or frozen roads, the horror.
Quoting 85. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Surprised we may not even get a subtropical storm or Otto out of 99L. November may spawn some storms with these water temps still pretty much boiling, keep an eye out especially in West Carribbean


Indeed, 99L had un-realized potential -in terms of tropical cyclonic development. A lot has to do with the existing conditions surrounding most developing systems, which can ultimately work in their favor for strengthening. Of course, there are many exceptions to that rule...Nicole was the latest case in point.

Blessings!
TWEET Grothar@TropicalTwits.com

My blobometer is still indicating development in the Caribbean this week. Season not over boys and girls.



Good afternoon, folks. Hope everyone is enjoying the weekend.

Little warm cored low forming off the coast of Portugal on Sunday/Monday?




Tropical cyclone formation probability with a blue spot off Portugal.




Current air mass pic of that low, still with a cold core (reddish color) as the jet stream is blowing into this cloudy airmass.
Quoting 84. LargoFl:

too far out in time to believe but folks in the Bahamas may want to watch this one closely...


At 336 hours people need to watch it closely. I'm not so sure about that.
12Z GFS entertainment (BOC system)


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
17:30 PM IST October 22 2016
==============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over east central Bay of Bengal further moved east northeastwards with speed of 15 km/h during past 6 hrs and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near14.9N 92.0E, about 370 km north northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) and 490 km west southwest of Yangon (Myanmar).

The system is most likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It will move northeastwards and reach close to north Myanmar coast by Sunday evening. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north northwestwards skirting Myanmar coast and then northwestwards towards northwest Bay of Bengal.
any one here on the blog no if the GFS is going too be getting a major upgrade any time soon? the GFS is doing a lot of flip floping and not agreeding on the weather setup here for next week why the ECMWF at this time has it has continues to be very steady with its solutions so i am leaning for the ECMWF for now has there is too march disagreed ment going on with the GFS has it is flip floping on one run too the next

Fall maybe here finally, 90+ last two days. New graphic for the TV station...
Today is the 18th anniversary of hurricane Mitch!
Quoting 100. Grothar:









Why won't the NHC mention this system???
this comes up from the Caribbean and............................................... ...............
Quoting 95. luvtogolf:



At 336 hours people need to watch it closely. I'm not so sure about that.
yes too far out in time but..something is telling us not to go to sleep..season is still here.
Quoting 100. Grothar:










Ukm and CMC are my favorite lol
Quoting 103. HurricaneFan:


Why won't the NHC mention this system???


that area may be out of season now not march happens out there at this time of year so may be thats why they wont mention that area every thing is now closer too home for the rest of the season that we have lift
Quoting 106. CaribBoy:



Ukm and CMC are my favorite lol


I'm trying to get you some rain, don't push it!!! :)
Quoting 40. beell:



Just waitin' on another Texas winter here...






This just bears repeating for irony or amazement. Thanks Beall. But blizzards close to tornadic regions aren't that unusual, both associated with very good dynamics.

Southern Texas in winter can go from stifling warm, soggy and humid (72 temp 71 dewpoint say) to 20s with freezing rain in less than a day when shallow arctic air comes in. Things are much more gentle and smooth in the Mid Atlantic where I live though we can go from warm sector 60s to 20s with snow in the same period when a cold front with most of the lifting behind it comes through.. common winter 2013-14.

The Mid Atlantic gets cold air damming with marine layers and back door cold fronts under clouds. Vertical extent is only a few thousand feet. From this a cold front one would expect to get to about the Mid Atlantic, winds up oozing slowly south to Central GA or so, then curling back up the Appalachians to Eastern Ohio or Western PA. But the Eastern Great Plains gets cold air damming to 10000 feet from the Rockies and a synoptic scale high can blast south with ageostrophic northerly winds at 90 degree angles to the isobars (right across them!) to this depth. This pattern drives cold fronts that geostrophically would get hung up in Nebraska or so, way down into Old Mexico south of Brownsville and on down to the Yucatan peninsula, and they often move FAST, 30-50mph with those northerly winds.
Quoting 108. Grothar:



I'm trying to get you some rain, don't push it!!! :)
Right NOW 366 days ago:

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 104.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
112. vis0
ImgLand.net image
Quoting 104. LargoFl:

this comes up from the Caribbean and............................................... ...............

Anything in the GOM or BOC with the fronts projected to come down would take a Hard East and Shoot East Towards FL...the GFS runs have been showing fast moving fronts pushing through around that time...I don't know if it would be tropical- it may just be heavy rains from a disturbed area in the BOC or W Carib that gets pulled NE over FL. We will see if the GFS persists- just yesterday it had a WCarib Storm. If it does then there is the possibility of a tropical system getting thrown across the GOM. Right now I'd say the chances of it happening are pretty low with all the shear and dry air but we will see. Moisture can always return and shear can lessen.
Quoting 108. Grothar:



I'm trying to get you some rain, don't push it!!! :)


How about if I say please?

Question, on a lot of things you post there are white arrows. What do those indicate? I'm a newby and don't know the good stuff.
Quoting 113. GrandCaymanMed:


Anything in the GOM or BOC with the fronts projected to come down would take a Hard East and Shoot East Towards FL...the GFS runs have been showing fast moving fronts pushing through around that time...I don't know if it would be tropical- it may just be heavy rains from a disturbed area in the BOC or W Carib that gets pulled NE over FL. We will see if the GFS persists- just yesterday it had a WCarib Storm. If it does then there is the possibility of a tropical system getting thrown across the GOM. Right now I'd say the chances of it happening are pretty low with all the shear and dry air but we will see. Moisture can always return and shear can lessen.


We'll need to watch the future runs to see if the GFS even keeps the Low. In past seasons, we've seen these lows develop in the BOC very late in the season. But usually they get stuck down in the BOC or they get pushed to the east into the Caribbean.
It will become very hard to get a system in the N.W. GOM in November, especially a more developed system.

But anything is possible so you can never completely dismiss any possibility. But I don't see anything stronger than a "blob" making it into the N.W. GOM. for the rest of this season.
Quoting 103. HurricaneFan:


Why won't the NHC mention this system???
IDK.
117. vis0
was that a (unofficial) TD (Blahob) that just zoomed by the NE? hopefully it can bring some rain to Nova Scotia? Lets OB the Buoys there...meanwhile limping along is that  "  " skimming Northeastern South America ...there that should send everyone compass a-spinning.
Quoting 115. Sfloridacat5:



We'll need to watch the future runs to see if the GFS even keeps the Low. In past seasons, we've seen these lows develop in the BOC very late in the season. But usually they get stuck down in the BOC or they get pushed to the east into the Caribbean.
It will become very hard to get a system in the N.W. GOM in November, especially a more developed system.

But anything is possible so you can never completely dismiss any possibility. But I don't see anything stronger than a "blob" making it into the N.W. GOM. for the rest of this season.


Yes it's certainly a wait and see situation, especially since the last several days of GFS runs had nothing of the sort this early in the fantasyland part of the run in the early November timeframe. Yesterday's run with the WCarib system at 384 hours grabbed my attention, but even 2 weeks ago when Matthew was hitting the SE US the GFS had a system in the West Carib form on Oct 16, which did not happen so I'm certainly watching to see if it persists.
Quoting 101. PedleyCA:


Fall maybe here finally, 90+ last two days. New graphic for the TV station...


It would be nice if you told us what city this is for, or do we have to guess?
The GFS for a couple runs now is hinting at the possibility of development in the gulf of Mexico about 10 days out. development subject to much changes in 10 days but is worth monitoring.
Quoting 111. pablosyn:

Right NOW 366 days ago:

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 104.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES



OK we get it all ready there no need too keep posting it

72 hours on the GFS, TS Otto.
Ped - A little cooler further North of you.

Quoting 119. HurriHistory:



It would be nice if you told us what city this is for, or do we have to guess?

I did PedleyCA. Near Riverside, CA
Quoting 123. Dakster:

Ped - A little cooler further North of you.




Just Right, well according to my sister....
Quoting 125. PedleyCA:



Just Right, well according to my sister....


It will be once the temps quit breaking freezing... Makes for slippery mornings.

Quoting 126. Dakster:



It will be once the temps quit breaking freezing... Makes for slippery mornings.




Time to turn a fan on, 87.5F outside and 19%RH, under 90 is good.
Swamp cooler time, Ped?

Quoting 40. beell:



Just waitin' on another Texas winter here...






I can't wait until this happens.



My naming list for this year:

Ahriman: Chaos Sorcerer from the Thousand Sons legion. Pronounced “air-ih-man”

Badrukk: Ork Flash Git Kaptin\Captain. Pronounced “bad-ruck”

Calgar: Papa smurf, Lord Macragge, Chapter master of the Ultramarines. Pronounced “kahl-gar”

Drogan: Inquisitor from the game Warhammer 40,000 Space Marine. Pronounced “droh-gahn”

Eidolon: One of the eleven lord commanders of the Emperor’s Children Legion during the Great Crusade and Horus Heresy. Pronounced “ei-doh-lohn”

Ferrus: Ferrus Manus, Primarch of the Iron Hands. Pronounced “Feh-ruhs”

Gorgutz: Ork Warboss in Dawn of War Winter Assault, Dark Crusade, and Soulstorm. Will also appear in Dawn of War 3. Pronounced “gore-guts”

Horus: Horus Lupercal, warmaster, started the Horus Heresy. Mortally wounded the Emperor at the battle of Terra at the climax of the Heresy. Pronounced “ho-rus”

Indrick: Indrick Boreale, commander of the Blood Ravens in Dawn of War Soulstorm. Speaks oddly. Pronounced “ihn-drick”

Jaghatai: Jaghatai Khan, primarch of the White Scars. Pronounced “ja-gah-tai”

Khorne: Chaos God, also known as The Blood God or the Lord of Skulls. Pronounced “corn”

Lorgar: Primarch of the Word Bearers. Pronounced “lohr-gahr”

Malal: Fifth, lesser known Chaos God. Pronounced “Mah-lahl”

Nurgle: Chaos God, also known as Papa Nurgle or Grandfather Nurgle. Pronounced “nur-gul”

Or’es’ka: Tau Commander from Dawn of War Soulstorm. Pronounced “or-es-kah”

Perturabo: Primarch of the Iron Warriors. Pronounced “pehrt-er-a-boh”

Qruze: Iacton Qruze, Captain of the Luna Wolves\Sons of Horus 3rd company. Pronounced “Cruise”

Russ: Leman Russ, primarch of the Space Wolves. Pronounced “Ruhss”

Sidonus: Veteran Sergeant Sidonus from the game Warhammer 40,000 Space marine. Pronounced “sid-own-us”

Thule: Davian Thule, commander of the Blood Ravens from the games Dawn of War Dark Crusade
and Dawn of war 2. Became a dreadnaught at the end of Dawn of War 2. Pronounced “Fool”

Uriel: Uriel Ventris, captain of the Ultramarines 4th company. Pronounced “err-ee-ehl”

Varro: Varro Tigurius, chief librarian of the Ultramarines. Pronounced “vah-roh”

Webway: The Eldar Webway, what they use for travel. Pronounced “web-way”

Xenos: What the Space Marines call their enemies. Pronounced “zee-nohs”

Yarrick: Commissar Yarrick, an expert on Orks. Pronounced “yahr-rick”

Zahndrekh: Necron Overlord of the Sautehk Dynasty. Pronounced “zan-drek”

Criteria is as follows:

A winter weather advisory, winter storm watch, winter storm warning, freezing rain advisory, ICE storm warning needs to be issued for a name to be used. For example, if the first storm is a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches of snow, then the name "Ahriman" will be used.


Quoting 120. masiello3:

The GFS for a couple runs now is hinting at the possibility of development in the gulf of Mexico about 10 days out. development subject to much changes in 10 days but is worth monitoring.




18Z GFS drops the BOC low.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
22:30 PM IST October 22 2016
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The depression over east central Bay of Bengal further moved east northeastwards with speed of 6 km/h during past 6 hrs and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 15.2N 92.5E, about 390 km north northwest of Port Blair (Andaman and Nicobar Islands and 420 km west southwest of Yangon (Myanmar).

The system is most likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It will move northeastwards and reach close to northern Myanmar coast by Sunday evening. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north northwestwards skirting Myanmar coast and then northwestwards towards northwest Bay of Bengal.
Quoting 132. GeoffreyWPB:




It was 59 degrees here at the house this morning and it did feel cold. I walked out to get the morning paper and I was like "it's cold outside."
It should be a little colder tonight here (low to mid 50s at my location). But sunny and 80 degrees during the day with low humidity will feel nice.
Queue up Anne Lennox "Here comes the rain again"

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ getForecast?query=pws:KWAVANCO147
Quoting 131. Sfloridacat5:




18Z GFS drops the BOC low.

Its been flip flopping alot.
The CMC getting frisky again.

Quoting 128. Dakster:

Swamp cooler time, Ped?




It is still apart. need to clean it up still. Not in a hurry, kind of out of season now.
Quoting 102. windshear1993:

Today is the 18th anniversary of hurricane Mitch!


And 1st anniversary of Patricia!
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:



It is still apart. need to clean it up still. Not in a hurry, kind of out of season now.


I thought dry air and 90F meant it worked well. But being taken apart, not so much.



Oh boy, I can't wait! The amount of Final Fantasy jokes I will crack in my blogs if we get Seymour from this are innumerable; he was basically the main antagonist in FFX, if you were wondering. I know some of my more nerdy friends on here will appreciate this, but if not, self-edification isn't always a bad thing. :P I've been anticipating this name all year.

Further reading
Quoting 140. Dakster:



I thought dry air and 90F meant it worked well. But being taken apart, not so much.




That would be true but at 87.5F and dry it wasn't warm enough to have to use anything.
143. beell
Quoting 109. georgevandenberghe:



This just bears repeating for irony or amazement. Thanks Beall. But blizzards close to tornadic regions aren't that unusual, both associated with very good dynamics.

Southern Texas in winter can go from stifling warm, soggy and humid (72 temp 71 dewpoint say) to 20s with freezing rain in less than a day when shallow arctic air comes in. Things are much more gentle and smooth in the Mid Atlantic where I live though we can go from warm sector 60s to 20s with snow in the same period when a cold front with most of the lifting behind it comes through.. common winter 2013-14.

The Mid Atlantic gets cold air damming with marine layers and back door cold fronts under clouds. Vertical extent is only a few thousand feet. From this a cold front one would expect to get to about the Mid Atlantic, winds up oozing slowly south to Central GA or so, then curling back up the Appalachians to Eastern Ohio or Western PA. But the Eastern Great Plains gets cold air damming to 10000 feet from the Rockies and a synoptic scale high can blast south with ageostrophic northerly winds at 90 degree angles to the isobars (right across them!) to this depth. This pattern drives cold fronts that geostrophically would get hung up in Nebraska or so, way down into Old Mexico south of Brownsville and on down to the Yucatan peninsula, and they often move FAST, 30-50mph with those northerly winds.


Irony and amazement was the goal, George-but an EF4 (the Garland/Rowlett, TX tornado) is a bit of a rarity. Probably no more than about a dozen December EF 4's in the 1950-2011 database.

I had to scratch around a bit-but I did find this:

Cherry County, Nebraska. March 23rd, 2009. A tornado warning (which did produce a brief 2-min tornado) and a blizzard warning w/attendant blizzard in the same, albeit large, county.



EASTERN CHERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALENTINE
1236 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Time: 2009-03-23T18:45:00Z UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: PUBLIC
Remark: BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON THE GROUND FOR 2 MINUTES.


WESTERN CHERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CODY...MERRIMAN...KILGORE
1136 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2009

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY...
2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season history
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES
Quoting 108. Grothar:



I'm trying to get you some rain, don't push it!!! :)


xD
What a dry october :/ !!
Quoting 146. CaribBoy:

What a dry october :/ !!


No Rain this month?
Quoting 147. PedleyCA:



No Rain this month?


Almost no rain. 0.6 inch.

Considering october is our wettest month, there is a big issue somewhere ://
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:



Almost no rain. 0.6 inch.

Considering october is our wettest month, there is a big issue somewhere ://


If I could hazard a guess, I would say it's in the atmosphere.
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:



Almost no rain. 0.6 inch.

Considering october is our wettest month, there is a big issue somewhere ://


.6 more than I have gotten here. It is the rainy season here too, and nothing yet.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
5:30 AM IST October 23 2016
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central Bay of Bengal further moved east northeastwards with speed of 11 km/h during past 6 hours and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 15.5N 93.0E, about 420 km north of Port Blair (Andaman and Nicobar Islands) and 360 km west southwest of Yangon (Myanmar).

The system is most likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It will move northeastwards and reach close to northern Myanmar coast by this evening. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north northwestwards skirting Myanmar coast and then northwestwards towards northwest Bay of Bengal.
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:



It is still apart. need to clean it up still. Not in a hurry, kind of out of season now.


Housemate Bro was teasing me - I emptied, scraped and whapped the schmutz out of ours, drained the trickle hoses and base. (those occasional lows in the teens and single digits will break almost anything with water in it.) He was saying "Oh great, now we're going to get that last week in the 90's."

We didn't. We do need to replace the grill panels though. Our well water is great for your teeth, not so good for any painted steel swamp cooler panels.


TXIO26 KNES 230320
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99B)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 15.5N
D. 91.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER LESS THAN 0.5 DEGREES FROM THE EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. MET IS A 3.5 AND PT IS A 3.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...WHISNANT
Quoting 150. PedleyCA:



.6 more than I have gotten here. It is the rainy season here too, and nothing yet.


:(
El Nino and La Nina mean almost nothing for us regarding rainfalls. October 2015 was wetter.
Quoting 152. nonblanche:



Housemate Bro was teasing me - I emptied, scraped and whapped the schmutz out of ours, drained the trickle hoses and base. (those occasional lows in the teens and single digits will break almost anything with water in it.) He was saying "Oh great, now we're going to get that last week in the 90's."

We didn't. We do need to replace the grill panels though. Our well water is great for your teeth, not so good for any painted steel swamp cooler panels.

Mine is a composite one, no metal, but my water is real HARD and it is a mess. No I don't drink the water here.
System was upgraded to a deep depression at 8:30 AM IST.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
11:30 AM IST October 23 2016
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 6 hours and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal near 15.5N 93.0E, about 420 km north of Port Blair (Andaman and Nicobar Islands) and 360 km west southwest of Yangon (Myanmar).

The system is most likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It will move northeastwards and reach close to northern Myanmar coast by this evening. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north northwestwards skirting Myanmar coast and then northwestwards towards northwest Bay of Bengal.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show shear pattern. Convective clouds are sheared towards west. The intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lie over Bay of Bengal between 12.0N to 17.0N and 83.5E to 92.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the deep depression. The central pressure is 1000 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.1N 94.1E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 16.8N 93.8E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 17.8N 91.8E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 18.4N 89.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
====================
The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is about 100 kj/cm2. Low level convergence around the system center shows rise during past six hours and is about 20x 10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence also shows increase over the area during past six hours and is about 30x10-5 second-1. The low level relative vorticity increased during past six hours and is about 150x10-6second-1and vorticity center lies to the east northeast of the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased during past six hours and is moderate (10-15 knots) around the system center and it further decreases towards northeast becoming 5-10 knots near Arakan & adjoining Tenasserim coast. There is an anticyclonic circulation over Myanmar close to Irrawaddy delta. It may steer the system to north northwest as the system moves closer to the coast. However, due to expected land interaction, the intensification will be steady and slow during next 24 hours though the dynamical parameters are favorable for intensification.
Good morning. It was a "hit or miss" scenario for much of the drought-stricken Northeast this weekend. Some regions got dumped on with 4 to 5 inches, while other places barely reached a half inch. Dry-air slots, pushing in to the storm system from the south, kept the totals down for many that needed this rainfall...


Screenshot via: http://water.weather.gov/precip/
And snow, it begins...
Winter has officially come to parts of the Northeast:


Via: http://www.weather.gov/btv/headline1
South Miami, Florida
Clear
65°F
Feels Like: 65°

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!
161. elioe
good/morning all latest 0z gfs 170hrs looks as if a low level trough is going to try to form from the Boc across yucatan ,cuba to hispanola. a trough if forms can dish out incredible amounts of rain. plenty of energy remains. cant wait to see what happens
46 here in north Florida. Not sure what to do about it
Quoting 164. JrWeathermanFL:

46 here in north Florida. Not sure what to do about it
Maybe?
As we say in TX, ain't nothing between us and Canada but a barbed-wire fence. That day I was driving home (DFW area) from SE TX dodging tornados while my other half was driving from NM trying to outrun the blizzard. It shut down I-40 about an hour after he crossed the TX line. And then the EF 4 in Garland was happening... crazy day & night.

Quoting 109. georgevandenberghe:



This just bears repeating for irony or amazement. Thanks Beall. But blizzards close to tornadic regions aren't that unusual, both associated with very good dynamics.

Southern Texas in winter can go from stifling warm, soggy and humid (72 temp 71 dewpoint say) to 20s with freezing rain in less than a day when shallow arctic air comes in. Things are much more gentle and smooth in the Mid Atlantic where I live though we can go from warm sector 60s to 20s with snow in the same period when a cold front with most of the lifting behind it comes through.. common winter 2013-14.

The Mid Atlantic gets cold air damming with marine layers and back door cold fronts under clouds. Vertical extent is only a few thousand feet. From this a cold front one would expect to get to about the Mid Atlantic, winds up oozing slowly south to Central GA or so, then curling back up the Appalachians to Eastern Ohio or Western PA. But the Eastern Great Plains gets cold air damming to 10000 feet from the Rockies and a synoptic scale high can blast south with ageostrophic northerly winds at 90 degree angles to the isobars (right across them!) to this depth. This pattern drives cold fronts that geostrophically would get hung up in Nebraska or so, way down into Old Mexico south of Brownsville and on down to the Yucatan peninsula, and they often move FAST, 30-50mph with those northerly winds.
ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 105.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Mexico north of San Blas to El Roblito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to El Roblito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia is
now moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast and a faster forward motion are expected later
today, with this motion continuing tonight and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Patricia should cross the coast in
the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or early this
evening. After landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move
quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher
gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane through landfall. After landfall, Patricia is
forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should reach the hurricane warning area
during the next several hours, with the worst conditions likely this
afternoon and this evening. Tropical storm conditions are now
spreading across portions of the warning area. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
Almost 1 year ago record broken.
now that it is late OCT going in too NOV it is really that time of year too where we need too turn a way from tracking tropical weather turn too tracking strong winter storms models can say what they want they can forecast 5 named storms if they want to but it wont happen its starting too get really late in the season now Nicole may have been are last named storm of the season not sure why you guys still think we could still see a one or 2 more named storms this is not the 2005 hurricane season that was like one in a life time event nov is the time too where we turn too winter strom tracking and are 2nd tornado season

the E PAC season will all so start shuting down has its starting too get late in the season for them has well so Seymour may be the last named storm of the season for them
11-years ago today...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT YET
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145
KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 505
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

i say you are most be so board
173. SuzK
Quoting 35. toddbizz:

Amazing how this blogs dies out when the Atlantic game is over

No trolls at least fake progasticating


With so many changes going on around the world in weather, serious changes, I sincerely hope that the scope of the chatter here will refocus on what else is happening in other places here in North America and globally. There is, and is coming, a wealth of crazy to report on and discuss. Please, don't slow the blog, because hurricane season isn't all the crazy weather that is out there.

I just verified that there was measurable rain on the 17th, so our long ordeal is over
162 days without Rain. It was briefly sprinkling this morning and my attempt to procure
a rain gauge failed the other day and so I have rushed the Lowes bucket into service.
There are 3 chances of rain on the WU 10-Day forecast. The amount of Rain on the 18th was .07
and I just found that because it wasn't reported right away. I checked the morning after and there was nothing there,
so I passed it off as not measurable when it seemed it was. Well it was. Indian Hills had .05 and KRAL was .03 on that day so there should have(and was) a result, and now I know there was, sweet....
Edit: Changed date to 17th as the rain reported did fall on the 17th and was reported on the 18th
400 years ago today

OCTOBER 23, 1616

A TROPICAL TEMPEST DOTH THREATEN THE ATLANTIC

SHIPS REPORTETH AN ILL WIND THAT BLOWETH. WE KNOWEST NOT WHERE IT SHALL LAND, BUT WE RECOMMEND THAT THOU DOEST HUNKERETH DOWN AND PRAYETH THAT OUR MODELS SHALL ERR.

SHIPS MODEL



TWO BLOBETHS NOTICED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA

Good morning,

Today marks my 11th anniversary of my transition from a "best check it out because Brian Norcross said that there is a hurricane coming our way" to an avid reader who is truly appreciative of what you have taught me.

Thank you.
Quoting 164. JrWeathermanFL:

46 here in north Florida. Not sure what to do about it



Do what we do......

Quoting 141. KoritheMan:



Oh boy, I can't wait! The amount of Final Fantasy jokes I will crack in my blogs if we get Seymour from this are innumerable; he was basically the main antagonist in FFX, if you were wondering. I know some of my more nerdy friends on here will appreciate this, but if not, self-edification isn't always a bad thing. :P I've been anticipating this name all year.

Further reading
Quoting 141. KoritheMan:



Oh boy, I can't wait! The amount of Final Fantasy jokes I will crack in my blogs if we get Seymour from this are innumerable; he was basically the main antagonist in FFX, if you were wondering. I know some of my more nerdy friends on here will appreciate this, but if not, self-edification isn't always a bad thing. :P I've been anticipating this name all year.

Further reading

If it's named Seymour, I'll probably make some Simpsons jokes.
The GFS has been extremely consistent with the development of this storm.
Quoting 182. HurricaneFan:

The GFS has been extremely consistent with the development of this storm.



they may have been extremely consistent but so far nothing has happen in that area so there for the GFS may be wrong about that area
Quoting 175. Grothar:

400 years ago today

OCTOBER 23, 1616

A TROPICAL TEMPEST DOTH THREATEN THE ATLANTIC

SHIPS REPORTETH AN ILL WIND THAT BLOWETH. WE KNOWEST NOT WHERE IT SHALL LAND, BUT WE RECOMMEND THAT THOU DOEST HUNKERETH DOWN AND PRAYETH THAT OUR MODELS SHALL ERR.

SHIPS MODEL



TWO BLOBETHS NOTICED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA


Gro deciphering the ancient models:
Temp anomaly (Celsius) - October 1 until Oct. 19 average (WeatherBELL). Click to enlarge.
Just watching the 12Z GFS run, it's pretty consistent showing high pressure dominating the eastern half of the U.S. for the next couple weeks.
It's like the Great Wall of China protecting the U.S. from anything tropical.

That's if anything were to form. The only thing consistent from run to run has been a weak low trying to spin up in the Central Atlantic. The GFS was a lot more excited about the system a couple days ago.
Heavy rains on St.thomas right now October has been extremely wet this year
Quoting 186. 999Ai2016:

Temp anomaly (Celsius) - October 1 until Oct. 19 (WeatherBELL). Click to enlarge.



Actually surprised to see most of South America, Europe, and Asia below normal for October. Looks like majority of the heat (anomalies) are located at the higher latitudes including Greenland and the poles.
Quoting 188. rockcity340:

Heavy rains on St.thomas right now October has been extremely wet this year


Paradox! Very dry here. :\


Dry considering we are in the wettest period of the year.

Dry season always dry, wet season NOT always wet :\
Entertainment purposes only

Thank God this is the CMC, because the system would most likely move E or ENE towards Haiti.

Potential first major storm of the season shaping up offshore of California. First system will come in tonight and tomorrow, not a major, but a setup for the big one that may occur after Wednesday. All models showing a cold front sweeping thru, then stalling over the south SF Bay Area, then reversing northward as a warm front attached to a deepening low southwest of SF, tapping into subtropical moisture. Euro has deep low off SF with heavy to potentially very heavy rain across the entire state with high winds as the low comes ashore somewhere over central or northern CA. We shall see.

Wider view showing the stormy period developing off the West Coast. A broad tropical tap looks to be forming, drawing from the waters of the Eastern Pacific between Hawaii and Mexico as well as a moisture stream coming across with the Pacific jet. A strong contrast with the past few years of drought.
We've transitioned into our dry season here. It's been pretty much sunny everyday for weeks.

Today is a perfect day if you like sunny skies, low humidity, and mild temperatures (high of 80).

Not a cloud in the sky - Sanibel Island in S.W. Florida
some shots from the roads of toronto, where i work as a bike messenger and spend most of the day looking at clouds :)







also check out my website Link for more weather related/nature pics!

Tropical taps galore feeding into the Pacific jet. Center of pic shows remnants of typhoons carried along by the Asia jet, enhanced by the strong contrast between the Siberian cooldown and the very warm SSTs of the western Pacific, while a direct stream out of the ITCZ east of Hawaii is propelled into the Pacific jet to the right (moving upward, which is actually northeastward) , headed into the developing storminess off the US West Coast.
Quoting 192. Sfloridacat5:

Entertainment purposes only

Thank God this is the CMC, because the system would most likely move E or ENE towards Haiti.


GFS showed there a similiar system a day ago but flip flopped lol.
Sorry if I missed it. What killed off the working Wundermap?
i really wish the admins of this site would get ride of this heavy UI and going back too a UI we all no and love
HWRF wants to make 20E all nice and strong, ending the season with a BANG!



GFS wants to keep 20E weaker, ending the season with a whimper.


CMC wants to make 20E weaker than the GFS, ending the season with a whimper.


Quoting 193. BayFog:


Potential first major storm of the season shaping up offshore of California. First system will come in tonight and tomorrow, not a major, but a setup for the big one that may occur after Wednesday. All models showing a cold front sweeping thru, then stalling over the south SF Bay Area, then reversing northward as a warm front attached to a deepening low southwest of SF, tapping into subtropical moisture. Euro has deep low off SF with heavy to potentially very heavy rain across the entire state with high winds as the low comes ashore somewhere over central or northern CA. We shall see.


Hopefully some for Soo Cal also. First trof is weak down here in San Diego, will be passing thru Soo Cal today and tomorrow with some light rain possible. Currently have light showers at my location. Possible stronger trof/front Thursday-Saturday this week. Current Soo Cal radar.

204. bwi
Andy Revkin's twitter has lots of old-timey articles about early recognition of the CO2 greenhouse effect.

This one I think was from 1911:

Come on really?
From what?
Have a look at the water vapor imagery
And shear forecasts
It's become dry way to early after very limited rain events not good news for water lenses that remain here soon to be exhausted

Quoting 198. Weatherfan1013:


GFS showed there a similiar system a day ago but flip flopped lol.
Quoting 204. bwi:

Andy Revkin's twitter has lots of old-timey articles about early recognition of the CO2 greenhouse effect.

This one I think was from 1911:



Whole article here :
News Coverage of Coal's Link to Global Warming, in 1912
Andrew C. Revkin - Dot Earth Blog / NYT - Oct. 21.
Quoting 192. Sfloridacat5:

Entertainment purposes only

Thank God this is the CMC, because the system would most likely move E or ENE towards Haiti.



No it wouldn't it would move N and NE.
Quoting 191. CaribBoy:



Dry considering we are in the wettest period of the year.

Dry season always dry, wet season NOT always wet :\

Maybe if you're REALLY sincere, the Great Pumpkin will bring you rain, CaribBoy!
Seymour is coming

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along the
southwestern periphery of a high pressure system located over
Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low is
forecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slow
down even more and turn northwestward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
Quoting 209. BayFog:

Seymour is coming

INIT 23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

Zika virus infection alters human, viral RNA



Map of every planetary space exploration probe ever made - click to expand.


All models recurve 20E/Seymour back toward northern Baja late in its existence, which might prove very interesting if its moisture gets pulled into the west coast trough, assuming that trough is still there at that time.
Quoting 189. Sfloridacat5:



Actually surprised to see most of South America, Europe, and Asia below normal for October. Looks like majority of the heat (anomalies) are located at the higher latitudes including Greenland and the poles.
And it's still really cold their.
Quoting 203. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hopefully some for Soo Cal also. First trof is weak down here in San Diego, will be passing thru Soo Cal today and tomorrow with some light rain possible. Currently have light showers at my location. Possible stronger trof/front Thursday-Saturday this week. Current Soo Cal radar.




Sup Joe, Got somw sprinkles this morning and the street just got peppered with raindrops enough to cover it and not much more. So far for the rainy season we have .07(from the 17th).
Quoting 210. SPShaw:





SKINNNEERRR?!?!?!



nao going negative in november which should help in to usher cooler weather in the eastern and southern part of the u.s
Quoting 211. BaltimoreBrian:

Zika virus infection alters human, viral RNA



Map of every planetary space exploration probe ever made - click to expand.


interesting
Quoting 204. bwi:

Andy Revkin's twitter has lots of old-timey articles about early recognition of the CO2 greenhouse effect.

This one I think was from 1911:




clearly not part of a massive conspiracy
I saw the Revkin article in the New York Times. It's linked in comment #1760 of my blog, but why not link it here:

News Coverage of Coal's Link to Global Warming, in 1912
Thanks knightwarrior41!
Quoting 216. knightwarrior41:



nao going negative in november which should help in to usher cooler weather in the eastern and southern part of the u.s



not really the ECMWF and i think the GFS both show that there will be a strong ridge over the Mid W and E keeping it warm has we head in too nov wish means CA will be wet and cool and how do i no this? the the past 5 runs of the ECMWF showed a strong ridge in the mid W and W and a wet and stormy CA
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
23:30 PM IST October 23 2016
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved north northeastwards with speed of 10 km/h during past six hours and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near16.0N 93.2E, about 480 km north of Port Blair (Andaman and Nicobar Islands) and 320 km west southwest of Yangon (Myanmar).

The system is most likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It will move north northeastwards/northwards for some time and then recurve initially north northwestwards and then northwestwards. It is very likely to reach northwest Bay of Bengal by Thursday morning.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.7N 93.4E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 17.4N 92.7E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 18.1N 90.9E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 18.7N 88.3E - 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016
This is the northern tip of Luzon I. (Philippines). You can spot the big plumes of sediments carried by the main rivers into the ocean, after typhoon Sarika and typhoon Haima brought heavy rain there (some areas in Dagupan City were still flooded 3 days after the onslaught of typhoon Haima).

Image captured on Oct. 23. Credit, source : NASA, (true color, coastlines overlay) Terra/MODIS satellite - EODIS worldview <-- website link, should display the same image in high res.
Edit - or click both pictures to embiggen.
Long before (June 12, 2015), for comparison :



The water vapor increase from agw is flexing globally.



226. bwi
I don't know what this anomaly chart really means, but I think warm in Arctic and cold in southern Siberia in Fall implies something like: "watch the bleep out" for USA winter weather!

Quoting 87. Patrap:

....Precipitation patterns are also changing;storms and other extremes are changing as well.


Maybe this explains why that storm yesterday looked like a warm Old Man Winter..
I'm gonna have so much fun with Seymour, lol. I'm such a nerd. Here's the actual script of the events leading up to the final battle with Seymour in FFX:

[The party runs along the misty path until the party happens upon Seymour.]

Tidus: "Don't you ever give up?"

Seymour: "Sin has chosen me. I am part of Sin. I am one with Sin, forever. Immortal!"

Tidus: "Sin just absorbed you."

Seymour: "I will learn to control it, from within. I have all the time in the world. Since you were gracious enough to dispose of Yunalesca...the only means of destroying Sin is forever gone. Now nothing can stop us!"

Tidus: "Well, we can!"

Seymour: "By all means, try!"





Now let me modify that for you guys:

Tidus: "Don't you ever give up?"

Seymour: "The Pacific has chosen me. I am part of the Pacific. I am one with it, forever!"

Tidus: "Shear will just destroy you!"

Seymour: "I will learn to control it from within. I have all the time in the world! Since you were gracious enough to dispose of the upper-trough, the only means of shearing me... is forever gone! Now NOTHING can stop me!"

Tidus: "Well, these can!" *points to dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures up ahead*

Seymour: "By all means, try!"

Okay, I'll stop now. But that was so much fun. XD
Quoting 220. BaltimoreBrian:

Thanks knightwarrior41!
why?no prob
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
8:30 AM IST October 24 2016
==============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary in past 3 hours and lays centered over east central Bay of Bengal, near 16.4N 93.2E, about 520 km north northeast of Port Blair and 310 km west southwest of Yangon.

The system is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It will move northwards for some time and then recurve initially north northwestwards and then northwestwards. It is very likely to reach northwest Bay of Bengal by Thursday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show shear pattern. Convective clouds are sheared towards west. The intensity of the system is CI 2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convectioin lie over Bay of Bengal between latitude 14.0N to 20.5N and 86.5E to 93.0E the lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center i 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the deep depression. The central pressure is 1000 hPa.

Additional Information
=====================
The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is about 100 kj/cm2. It increases towards northeast sector of the system and decreases towards northwest and north except a small pocket of northwest Bay of Bengal off Orissa coast. Low level convergence around the system center is about 15x10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence over the area is about 20x10-5 second-1. The low level relative vorticity is about 150x10-6 second-1 and vorticity is oriented from east southeast to west northwest. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased during past six hours and is moderate (10-15 knots) around the system center.

Past 12 hours observations indicate that the system moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 5 knots. The system shows signs of weakening in the morning today mainly due to increase in wind shear prevailing over the region. However the scatterometer and other observations in the region indicate the wind speed of about 30 knots. Due to prevailing favorable environmental conditions around system center, there is possibility of intensification, though there is a temporary sign of weakening in convection. There is large divergence in the model guidance with regards to track of the system, which varies from westwards to north northwestwards. Majority of numerical models also indicate steady intensification of the system.
Good morning everyone. Looking for 'expert' opinions:
How will TS/Hurricane Seymour interact with what is seen here on the current Water Vapor imagery, and how much rainfall do you expect to stream into Southern California? Thanks in advance...

good/morning....cmc..out.of.it
it would be good news if calif gets more precip. than the hyped up 2015-16 winter
Quoting 196. earthisanocean:

some shots from the roads of toronto, where i work as a bike messenger and spend most of the day looking at clouds :)







also check out my website Link for more weather related/nature pics!



Thanx for those pics mate !! For the rest of you.....here is the correct hyperlink Link


How does bad weather effect your messenger job duties?
Quoting 184. pingon:

Gro deciphering the ancient models:



Is that you, Gro, sitting on the high chair?
SKINNNERRRR!


Today is the 11th anniversary of Hurricane Wilma.

Though it moved across Florida in about 4-6 hours, the theme song is this:

Those chosen by the planet by Final Fantasy VII

Quoting 239. rmbjoe1954:



Is that you, Gro, sitting on the high chair?


The guy with the beard is my great-grandson. I was trying to teach him the ropes.
October PDO appears to be coming in positive maybe around 1.0 this month. With a positive PDO it appears the US is about to get into a El-Nino type pattern with a pretty stout southern storm track setting up as we enter November. Also by next Spring/Summer El-Nino should be back. Very rare to get a La-Nina in a positive PDO regime as we are seeing now.



Sea surface temps are showing a very stout warm ring surrounding the Enso Regions.
Quoting 216. knightwarrior41:



nao going negative in november which should help in to usher cooler weather in the eastern and southern part of the u.s


Yup. Here it is comes. NOAA might want to look at some of these models as nothing I see shows a La-Nina type set up across the US.

Euro weeklies as well as the JMA are hammering the SE US with heavy precip and severe weather come November.
Quoting 241. 62901IL:

SKINNNERRRR!




Quoting 244. StormTrackerScott:

October PDO appears to be coming in positive maybe around 1.0 this month. With a positive PDO it appears the US is about to get into a El-Nino type pattern with a pretty stout southern storm track setting up as we enter November. Also by next Spring/Summer El-Nino should be back. Very rare to get a La-Nina in a positive PDO regime as we are seeing now.



Sea surface temps are showing a very stout warm ring surrounding the Enso Regions.



I would not say "SHOULD" 9 months in advance.
No matter what the ENSO does next year, the trend that has begun in 2013 may continue.... dry and boring MDR east of the Lesser Antilles, waves staying weak and south of the N Leewards, below average rains over the N Leewards, and of course plenty of SAL.

://
Dry with SAL.... of well... EL-NINO like...

Anyways... CATL low is trying.. hopefully will come VERY close.
Quoting 238. KuCommando:




Thanx for those pics mate !! For the rest of you.....here is the correct hyperlink Link


How does bad weather effect your messenger job duties?


ahh thanks for the bad link fix :) weather (bad or good) affects my job a lot! hot and humid in the summer can be some of the worst, as well as 0-5 degrees celsius with rain..but i love most of it..started wearing ski goggles in the winter and its changed my life! its crazy too how much harder a cold wind is to fight against, then a warm wind.
Still a bit out there but......


Credit: Levi Cowan. www.tropicaltidbits.com 
254. bwi
Not explicitly weather related, but I think there are many occasions where referring people to this study would help clarify internet debates...

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-louder-the-m onkey-the-smaller-its-balls-study-finds-4236136466 3309?utm_content=bufferf824b&utm_medium=social&utm _source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Howler monkeys are the loudest land animals on Earth, capable of bellowing at volumes of 140 decibels, which is on the level of gunshots or firecrackers. Not surprisingly, male howlers frequently use this power to advertise their sexual fitness, catcalling females with their ear-splitting roars.

But in a beautiful twist of expectations, scientists have now found that the louder the monkey’s calls, the smaller the monkey’s balls. A team based out of Cambridge University came to this conclusion by comparing the size of dozens of monkeys’ testes with the hyoid bones located in their voice boxes, which revealed a negative correlation between decibel levels and testicular endowment. The results are published today in the journal Current Biology.

Here's the research link:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0960982215011094

Current Biology
Volume 25, Issue 21, 2 November 2015, Pages 2839–2844
Cover image
Report
Evolutionary Trade-Off between Vocal Tract and Testes Dimensions in Howler Monkeys

Jacob C. Dunn1, , , Lauren B. Halenar2, 3, Thomas G. Davies1, Jurgi Cristobal-Azkarate1, David Reby4, Dan Sykes5, Sabine Dengg6, W. Tecumseh Fitch7, 8, 10, , , Leslie A. Knapp9, 10
Quoting 247. CaribBoy:



I would not say "SHOULD" 9 months in advance.


Models do agree on this. Again I took a stand earlier this year me against the blog and "me" won. Folks need to understand positive PDO's as the one we are in now tend to lead to more frequent El-Nino's as was the case 2011 thru at;east early 2014 with a -PDO which led to a prolonged La-Nina overall. Also have you seen the SOI which has been falling off sharply for a few weeks now. Very possible another El-Nino is on the way come 2017.

8 Oct 2016 1014.96 1012.20 -0.84 13.76 8.33
9 Oct 2016 1014.10 1011.60 -2.52 13.32 8.16
10 Oct 2016 1013.69 1011.20 -2.58 12.79 7.95
11 Oct 2016 1012.59 1010.60 -5.80 12.18 7.85
12 Oct 2016 1011.10 1010.25 -13.15 11.14 7.93
13 Oct 2016 1010.21 1010.15 -18.24 9.50 7.93
14 Oct 2016 1009.09 1010.20 -25.79 7.73 7.74
15 Oct 2016 1010.66 1009.75 -12.77 6.61 7.68
16 Oct 2016 1013.19 1010.15 0.97 6.13 7.69
17 Oct 2016 1014.36 1009.55 12.38 5.93 7.65
18 Oct 2016 1013.44 1009.90 4.19 5.60 7.47
19 Oct 2016 1012.45 1010.30 -4.77 5.02 7.25
20 Oct 2016 1012.24 1009.95 -3.87 4.37 7.08
21 Oct 2016 1013.55 1010.00 4.25 4.17 6.92
22 Oct 2016 1014.09 1011.45 -1.61 3.87 6.68
23 Oct 2016 1013.54 1012.25 -10.32 3.29 6.35
24 Oct 2016 1012.27 1010.25 -5.61 2.82 6.15
Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:



Models do agree on this. Again I took a stand earlier this year me against the blog and "me" won. Folks need to understand positive PDO's as the one we are in now tend to lead to more frequent El-Nino's as was the case 201 thru at;east early 2014 with a -PDO which led to a prolonged La-Nina overall. Also have you seen the SOI which has been falling off sharply for a few weeks now. Very possible another El-Nino is on the way come 2017.

8 Oct 2016 1014.96 1012.20 -0.84 13.76 8.33
9 Oct 2016 1014.10 1011.60 -2.52 13.32 8.16
10 Oct 2016 1013.69 1011.20 -2.58 12.79 7.95
11 Oct 2016 1012.59 1010.60 -5.80 12.18 7.85
12 Oct 2016 1011.10 1010.25 -13.15 11.14 7.93
13 Oct 2016 1010.21 1010.15 -18.24 9.50 7.93
14 Oct 2016 1009.09 1010.20 -25.79 7.73 7.74
15 Oct 2016 1010.66 1009.75 -12.77 6.61 7.68
16 Oct 2016 1013.19 1010.15 0.97 6.13 7.69
17 Oct 2016 1014.36 1009.55 12.38 5.93 7.65
18 Oct 2016 1013.44 1009.90 4.19 5.60 7.47
19 Oct 2016 1012.45 1010.30 -4.77 5.02 7.25
20 Oct 2016 1012.24 1009.95 -3.87 4.37 7.08
21 Oct 2016 1013.55 1010.00 4.25 4.17 6.92
22 Oct 2016 1014.09 1011.45 -1.61 3.87 6.68
23 Oct 2016 1013.54 1012.25 -10.32 3.29 6.35
24 Oct 2016 1012.27 1010.25 -5.61 2.82 6.15



the last EL Nino we had here in CA was a flop and this fall and winter season we are off too a vary good start the 06z GFS show storms for CA every 24 too 48hrs for the next 2 weeks some in we did not see all that vary march back when we had are super EL nino even S CA is injoying some early season rains wish last year they did not see march of any thing at all i think this winter will spill good news for all of CA wish every one will get too have a little of every thing
Quoting 173. SuzK:



With so many changes going on around the world in weather, serious changes, I sincerely hope that the scope of the chatter here will refocus on what else is happening in other places here in North America and globally. There is, and is coming, a wealth of crazy to report on and discuss. Please, don't slow the blog, because hurricane season isn't all the crazy weather that is out there.


Wait till snow season.. starts about now (late October)
Quoting 258. georgevandenberghe:



Wait till snow season.. starts about now (late October)



Snow season will be delay this season long range model are not show march in the way in cold of cold air any where in the mid W or back E it has a nice strong ridge of high pressure with above normal temperature why you think the W been more wetter then normal has of late in tell that pattern change wish I hop not don't be looking for snow and cold any time soon
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 252. Tornado6042008X:

Still a bit out there but......


Credit: Levi Cowan. www.tropicaltidbits.com 
Polar vort is forecast to be weak this winter..Cold and stormy for the east half....usually....
Quoting 249. CaribBoy:

Dry with SAL.... of well... EL-NINO like...




I'm really starting to feel for you over there. Yesterday we had another three inches of rain in about an hour and a half. It flooded my area of the island, up to the bottom of the cars on our street. Currently getting showers again.

Link

Lindy