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Drought is the Watchword as Winter 2016-17 Approaches

By: Bob Henson 5:20 PM GMT on October 20, 2016

After a year with a record number of billion-dollar flood disasters, the United States is now heading into a period where drought may be the leading concern, according to forecasters behind NOAA’s initial winter outlook for 2016-17 that was released Thursday. “The winter forecast doesn’t bode well for [many] areas around the nation experiencing drought,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a press conference Thursday. The most confident signal in the outlooks (see Figures 2 and 3) is for warmer-than-average conditions across the Sun Belt, from California to Florida, and for drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of states, especially from the Southern Plains to the Southeast.

A five-year drought continues to grip central and southern California, and a rapidly intensifying drought now stretches from Alabama to the western Carolinas, as evident in this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor. Parts of northern Alabama and Georgia have only recorded about half of their average rainfall over the last six months, according to the Drought Monitor. New England and New York are also grappling with serious, months-long drought, although heavy rains this weekend may provide some relief.


Figure 1. Sunlight reflects on the surface of Lake Purdy in Birmingham, AL, on Tuesday, October 11, 2016. The lake's water levels have dropped several feet due to a severe drought. Image credit: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson.

More room for surprises
The winter of 2015-16 largely followed expectations for a strong El Niño event, with two big exceptions: persistent dryness in the drought-plagued Southwest and unusual warmth that prevailed across nearly all of the U.S., including areas such as the Gulf Coast that trend cool during El Niño winters. This winter, we don’t have a strong El Niño or La Niña event shaping North American climate, so there is even more room for natural variability and the potential for surprises in the mix. In its most recent monthly advisory, issued on October 13, NOAA deemed it likely that a La Niña will develop by late autumn, but odds are just slightly better than even that it will persist through winter, and computer models agree that it should be a weak event if it does develop. Overall, NOAA’s winter outlook for the contiguous U.S. largely follows the playbook for La Niña, which typically favors relatively wet, cool conditions toward the north and relatively warm, dry weather toward the south.


Figure 2. NOAA precipitation outlook for winter 2016-17, expressed as the probabilities for wetter- or dryer-than-average conditions for the winter as a whole. The probabilities are expressed in thirds, so a region with 40% odds of an outcome has a better-than-average chance of that outcome. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 3. NOAA temperature outlook for winter 2016-17, expressed as the probabilities for warmer- or colder-than-average conditions for the winter as a whole. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Could another cold Midwest/East winter be in the cards?
One line of research suggests that several winters of the 2010s that featured intense cold across parts of the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, such as 2013-14 and 2014-15, may be related to a chain of events that begins with above-average October snow cover in Siberia (facilitated in part by recent losses of Arctic sea ice in autumn north of Siberia). In this view, above-average snow cover in autumn fosters high atmospheric pressure over the region. In turn, this deflects the jet stream and eventually disrupts the circulation over the Arctic, allowing cold air masses to pour southward more easily by winter.

Judah Cohen, one of the most prominent exponents of this hypothesis, leads an effort at Atmospheric and Environmental Research to predict winter temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere. Snow cover has been advancing at a faster-than-usual pace this autumn in Siberia, according to Cohen. Based on this, as well as below-average sea ice extent across the Barents and Kara Seas and the lack of a strong ENSO signal in the mix, AER issued a preliminary winter 2016-17 outlook on October 19. The outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across the U.S. Southwest and colder-than-average conditions from central Canada to the southeastern U.S., including most areas east of the Great Plains except for Maine (see Figure 4). Last winter, AER called for most of North America to be mild, in keeping with the strong El Niño that developed, but it expected below-average readings over the eastern U.S., where they didn’t materialize.


Figure 4. The outlook for departures from average temperature for the contiguous U.S. issued by Atmospheric and Environmental Research on October 19, 2016. An update will be issued in November. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures--especially east of the Mississippi. Image credit: Judah Cohen, AER.


Meanwhile, The Weather Company called for readings to be above average for most of the contiguous U.S. during the winter of 2016-17 in an outlook released on September 23 (see Figure 5 below). Referring to the switch from El Niño to a weak La Niña, TWC chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford said: "The reversal of tropical forcing suggests that the coldest weather in the eastern U.S. may occur earlier in the winter, with increasing chances for warmth during the late winter.” Crawford added: “Climate model forecasts for winter are unusually warm, likely reflecting the excess post-El-Nino global warmth, and another very warm winter is not out of the question due to this factor alone."


Figure 5. Temperature outlook for winter 2016-17 released by The Weather Company on September 23. Image credit: weather.com.


The cold winters of the 2010s in eastern North America may also have a link to the Pacific. Dennis Hartmann (University of Washington) emphasizes the role of warmth across parts of the tropical Pacific in generating an atmospheric “bridge” that can extend to cold, snowy conditions in the eastern U.S. and Canada. Hartmann and colleagues have investigated a pattern called the North Pacific Mode (NPM), which is distinct from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NPM’s positive phase features warmer-than-average SSTs extending from the western Pacific across to much of the north and northeast Pacific, where a recurrent area of warm water dubbed “The Blob” has returned this fall. This positive phase of the NPM in wintertime tends to favor a strong upper-level ridge from the U.S. West Coast to Alaska (reducing the likelihood of storms affecting California) and a deep, cold trough across eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, favoring intrusions of Arctic air. Hartmann discusses the NPM in more detail in a March 2015 post at climate.gov.

Hartmann has not yet analyzed the NPM for recent weeks, but he told me in an email: “The [current] tropical SST pattern is such as to force a high anomaly in the pressure in the midlatitude Pacific this winter, and that would give more ‘blob’ and a downstream anomaly like that of January 2014, all else being equal. So dry in California and cold in the East seems like a reasonable prediction, although the uncertainty is high because the atmosphere generates a lot of random variability unrelated to tropical SST.  It will be interesting to see what develops.”


Figure 6. The two most common sea surface temperature (SST) correlation patterns in Pacific Ocean north of 30°S over time, based on EOF (empirical orthogonal function) analysis, a technique used to break down the role of multiple potential factors. The first is the classic signal of El Niño and La Niña (together referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO), while the second is the North Pacific Mode (NPM). The contour interval is 0.1, and the zero contour is white. Red and blue show correlations between anomalies of opposite sign. When red areas have above-average SSTs, blue areas have below-average SSTs, and vice versa. Image credit: Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington, and climate.gov.


Figure 7. Departure from average in sea surface temperature (SST, shown in degrees C) for the period October 9 through October 15, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.

What makes a season?
It’s important to note that even a winter that’s overall warmer than average in the Midwest or Northeast may include a couple of fierce cold blasts and/or major snowstorms. Take 2015-16: even though it was the warmest winter on record for the contiguous U.S. as a whole, and a top-ten warmest winter from New Jersey through New England--including the warmest Christmas Day ever experienced by millions of East Coast residents--it also included the epic blizzard of January 20-22, 2016, which dumped more than two feet of snow from West Virginia to New York, and the brief but intense cold wave of mid-February 2016, which produced Boston’s coldest weather since the 1950s. It’s an open question whether people will remember the East Coast’s winter of 2015-16 as brutal or balmy. When asked at Thursday’s press conference whether we are likely to see a “memorable” winter, Mike Halpert responded: “That’s not really what our outlook is about.”

We’ll be back with out next post on Friday, including a wrap-up on Typhoon Haima, which was heading toward the southeast coast of China on Thursday after ravaging parts of the Northern Philippines. We are also keeping an eye on Invest 99L, the long-simmering system east of the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center gives 99L a 50% chance of briefly developing into a depression, and perhaps a subtropical or tropical storm, as it moves northward, eventually merging with a frontal system off the U.S. East Coast.

Bob Henson


Drought long range winter outlook

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks.
35c at the Airport here right now.
Trinidad is an Island 50 x 80 miles.
It's surrounded by water (islands do that)
35c is 95F.

That's ridiculous !!
Note: Chart descriptions for colder/wetter are reversed. (Figures 2 & 3)
What this farmer is doing in Zimbabwe to protect her crops and livestock from drought and climate change.

WORLD NEWS | Thu Oct 20, 2016 | 10:09am EDT
Small farmers can overcome climate change and feed the world – Zimbabwe farmer

By Alex Whiting
ROME (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Like many small-scale farmers, Elizabeth Mpofu from drought-hit Zimbabwe has had to adapt her homestead to cope with a changing climate, which the United Nations says threatens to push millions globally into poverty and hunger.

She has found ways of adapting such as collecting and storing rainfall underground, and using mulch to lock moisture in the soil, which have kept her family comfortable despite living in southern Zimbabwe's Masvingo province, one of the country's driest regions.

Techniques like hers can feed the world, she said on the sidelines of an annual meeting of the Committee on World Food Security, a U.N. body which brings together governments, business leaders, farmers and food experts to review the global response to food security issues.

"We can feed our people, we can feed even the whole world through agroecology," said Mpofu, who is general coordinator of La Via Campesina, a movement representing more than 200 million smallholder farmers.

Small farmers produce most of the food eaten in developing countries. Many are using agroecology techniques that include using natural methods to improve the soil and protect against pests.

La Via Campesina has more than 40 agroecology schools around the world, where farmers gather to share ideas and experiences in adapting to the changing climate.

"We know this is the best solution to climate change," Mpofu told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

The committee gathered in Rome this week is looking at high-yielding crop and cattle breeds and the intensification of farming as one way to help reduce poverty in rural areas and to feed a growing population.

Some of the farmers present fear this will sideline their methods of farming and centuries of know-how, and may worsen their lives.

"What is going to be the life of a peasant without his or her own indigenous species?" Mpofu said.

"I don't know how to keep those new (cattle) species they want to bring. They are very expensive to take care of, they have to have food, medicine to cure these animals," she said.

Drought forced Mpofu to limit her cattle numbers, but her goats, sheep, guinea fowl and other livestock continue to grow.

She said farmers using traditional techniques managed to grow enough to feed their families through the drought.

"We are growing a diversity of small grains which are doing very well in this climate change," Mpofu said.

"But for those farmers who are really focused more on hybrid seeds ... not really considering the weather conditions, then all (their) crops were gone," she said.
Great Read! Thank you Bob.

Under the "What makes a season?" section:

"--it also included the epic blizzard of January 20-22, 2016, which dumped more than two feet of snow from West Virginia to New York, and the brief but intense cold wave of mid-February 2016,"

January 22-24, 2016 :^)
No Kidding, Thanks for the update Mr. Henson, no measurable rain her since May 07, 2016...
Quoting 2. liquidsquid:

Note: Chart descriptions for colder/wetter are reversed. (Figures 2 & 3)


Thanks! I actually meant for precipitation to be Fig. 2 and temperature to be Fig. 3, so the graphics are now swapped out.
He or She who stop's to help another, is favored by God and the Universe.

😯

From previous blog:
Congrats, Nicole!
You've made it to Greenland! (well, 12 or so hours ago, apparently)
Current:



2040 Projection:

Are you serious? Another crap winter for the midwest? I hate everyone.
A !limited vocab speak volumes.

✌😯
99 is starting to look like its making a run for classification.
I've just added The Weather Company's temperature outlook for 2016-17 to the post, so you now have an even wider variety of choices to draw from! One consistent message: the southwest quarter of the U.S. appears very likely to be warmer than average once again.
14. bwi
Arctic Temperatures
Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North.
From here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Heading toward another winter of low-power refreeze so far


And sea ice extent bouncing back down near record low territory again
well look at that.... my fishing hole made it to Dr. Masters' blog. People are finding arrowheads in the lake bed in Lake Purdy. It's not as low as the picture above makes it look, but it is still very very low, lower than I've ever seen it.
Quoting 10. Snacker2:

Are you serious? Another crap winter for the midwest? I hate everyone.


I'll be just east of you in Maryland for the whole winter and spring. I was in Baltimore during the 2014/2015 frigid cold and snowy winter/spring. We might get a repeat of that.
URNT12 KWBC 201822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992016
A. 20/18:07:08Z
B. 25 deg 28 min N
073 deg 02 min W
C. 1500 ft 711 m
D. 30 kt
E. 158 deg 13 nm
F. 244 deg 38 kt
G. 158 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 21 C / 462 m
J. 23 C / 489 m
K. 20 C / 27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 1
O. .01 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST OB 04
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 158 / 13 NM 18:03:38Z
We got a vortex message does that mean we have TD 16?
Quoting 18. HurricaneFan:

We got a vortex message does that mean we have TD 16?


More like Otto to me.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Central Bahamas is moving slowly and erratically,
but is expected to begin moving northward by tonight. Although
visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that the
low-level circulation has become a little better defined since
yesterday, preliminary reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined center. In
addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is limited
and not well organized. This system could still become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone before it merges with a cold front
over the western Atlantic, well offshore of the United States east
coast Friday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides are
likely over portions of Hispaniola for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 20. LargoFl:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Central Bahamas is moving slowly and erratically,
but is expected to begin moving northward by tonight. Although
visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that the
low-level circulation has become a little better defined since
yesterday, preliminary reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined center. In
addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is limited
and not well organized. This system could still become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone before it merges with a cold front
over the western Atlantic, well offshore of the United States east
coast Friday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides are
likely over portions of Hispaniola for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Pasch



please keep in mind that we now have a VORTEX DATA MESSAGE wish was done after the tropical weather out look was done so since that time 99L may have got in its center better organized and since we now have a VORTEX DATA MESSAGE 99L could be upgraded soon too STD or STS otto or STD 16

99L
Thanks Mr. Henson; one of the related issues for the Winter is also the issue of the warm water from the Gulf Stream piling up off of the Eastern Seaboard; when the stream was angled closer off the Coast from New York to Boston several seasons ago, we saw some heavy snows in the Boston area in part due to a coastal snow effect, like what happens near the Great Lakes, as some of the cold fronts pushed off the coast.

At present, the stream has angled off-shore of the Carolinas; still can provide some heavy snow for that region if a Nor'Easter pushes past them on the way North. Meanwhile, the Conus jet currently has a weak dip in the upper mid-west explaining the current warm trend along much of the lower 48.

Lots of issues pending for this Winter as you have noted with the worst perhaps related to the drought issues (particularly for Cali) and then the issue of spring snow pack for those drought areas that will need the water in the Spring.  Lots of things going on as we try to piece it all together; will also note that this past winter (2015-2016) did not have as many deep gulf lows/nor-easters than what we usually see every year.



U.S. Drought Monitor forWest








Quoting 13. BobHenson:

I've just added The Weather Company's temperature outlook for 2016-17 to the post, so you now have an even wider variety of choices to draw from! One consistent message: the southwest quarter of the U.S. appears very likely to be warmer than average once again.


thanks bob most excellent post today great info a lot to digest good read as always as for winter it will be one of surprises and record snows for some with a few bouts of deep cold for the mix across the northern half of U.S. and all of Canada desert like for the south dry dry and more dry maybe spring floods from the north in spring will be the only blessing in disguise for water wise

thanks for the update
have a great day
In terms of 99L, the very dry core is trying to spin up in the only place that it can considering all of the shear around the general area: more movement to the North = Poof.................................




Pretty much the same in the Southern Calif region, but not worse here.
Quoting 25. weathermanwannabe:

In terms of 99L, the very dry core is trying to spin up in the only place that it can considering all of the shear around the general area: more movement to the North = Poof.................................






I was about to say the same thing. Water vapor satellite shows so much dry air wrapping into 99L's center.
environment Canada's local forecast page has been changed lots of info now shown on the page

Link
The Southwest May Have Entered a "Drier Climate State"
Climate Central - Feb. 2016.

The 15 hottest months on record have all occurred since March 2015. Credit: NOAA.
Source : This is What It's Like To Be a Young Climate Scientist - Climate Central - Oct. 19.
Two centers?
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 20:04Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 19:46:27Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°41'N 74°17'W (26.6833N 74.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 222 statute miles (358 km) to the ENE (59°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level (Undecoded): 1500 ft 704 m
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14kts (~ 16.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155° at 13kts (From the SSE at ~ 15.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 460m (1,509ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 27°C (81°F)
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SSE (158°) from the flight level center at 18:03:38Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center
Quoting 26. PedleyCA:


Pretty much the same in the Southern Calif region, but not worse here.

I was talking to "a UK member of the Public"the other day about the drought in California and they said, "it must be bad for them but at least its not raining there!
Sort of makes you want to give up trying sometimes.
Solution, Beware of "members of the Public."
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:



I was about to say the same thing. Water vapor satellite shows so much dry air wrapping into 99L's center.

Does this resemble a Noreaster?
Last little line about to come through S C IL, trained over us pretty well from about noon yesterday until early a.m. Lost my gauge, would guess about an inch for us. The I-70 corridor looked to get heavier amounts on radar and there were flood advisories around. N wind now blowing in, may get into upper 30s Sat morning after a mid 50s high tomorrow.

Crops mostly out, hard maples, sumac, and hickories pretty well in color, rest should be coming on next week w/ colder temps and dropping below 11 hrs of sunlight today. Seems the winter forecast for us could go several ways, just hope we avoid freezing rain.
Quoting 34. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Does this resemble a Noreaster?


no
Should get our first real snow of the 2016-2017 winter tonight in Anchorage itself tonight/tomorrow... Next week lows in the teens... Glad I could look and see what Alaska's chances are for a warmer/colder or wetter/drier winter are. Usually I feel left out.

Good evening, and thanks for the new diligent blog entry, Bob.

Here the latest weather related news for the friends of pressed grapes:

Global wine output to drop 5pc amid bad weather in France, South America
Oct 21 2016 at 4:19 AM
Worldwide wine production is expected to fall this year to its lowest since 2012, chiefly due to adverse weather that sharply cut output in France and South America, according to wine body OIV. ...

Vine growers in the UK (!) are thriving though:
World wine output near 'lowest for 20 years' as UK harvest looks good
UK wines get a chance to cash in as a world industry report highlights damaging climatic effects on many top-producing countries. ...
Thursday 20 October 2016

In Germany, the very dry, sunny and warm weather from July to September made up for the threats of the way too wet months earlier this year:
Germany expects 'good' 2016 vintage despite reduced yields
28th September, 2016 by Darren Smith

Currently we get a respite from the latest droughty conditions with low Danielle hovering over us. Several hours of rain mid Germany today - very welcome at least by me:



(Click to enlarge.) Decent snow in the Alps, and looking at the webcams of foto-webcam.eu I get the impression that they are already preparing the ski pistes.


Another current pic from that web site. Aww, so beautiful tonight. This time of the year one fancies snow pics, other than in late winter when you won't bear to look at them any longer ...
E-mailed about the pending retirement of our beloved manual Dvorak fixes we have so enjoyed over the years from RSMC and such. Anybody else?
Quoting 5. PedleyCA:

No Kidding, Thanks for the update Mr. Henson, no measurable rain her since May 07, 2016...

Where you live is an arid area of the U.S., so unfortunately you can experience long term droughts.

Large-eyed Haima, with a jog towards the north, close to landfall in China.

Typhoon Haima 2016 Update: Death Toll Rises In The Philippines, Storm Headed To Hong Kong [VIDEO]
By Britteny Dee On 10/20/16 AT 11:21 AM

Some videos of crazy flashflooding in Hong Kong today (click the pic.twitter.com links):




Tweet with a nice high res loop of Haima.
Some interesting news from "tropical" Iceland ;-)

Unusually warm temperatures last night
Iceland Monitor | Thu 20 Oct 2016
Unusually high temperatures were recorded in several places in North and North East Iceland, including Vopnafjörður and Ólafsfjörður where the temperatures was 17,7 degrees C [63.86F] and 17.3 degrees C. However, this is no heat wave but quite usual in light of the current weather conditions.
"The area of low pressure of the Greenland sea, the leftovers of hurricane Nicole is pumping warm air up to Iceland all the way from the southern oceans," says Helga Ívarsdóttir at the Iceland Met Office. ...


Obviously Ex-Nicole let Iceland ran out of ice cubes, lol (j/k)

Ice Cubes Imported to Iceland
By Vala Hafstað Society about 11 hours ago
Icelanders must import numerous necessities, but who would have guessed ice cubes were among them?
According to RÚV, ice cubes are imported to Iceland by the tons. They are sold in Icelandic grocery stores at a price far below that of Icelandic ice cubes. Consumers need to know that such an import leaves a large carbon footprint, a biologist at Landvernd, the Icelandic Environment Association, points out.
In Icelandic grocery stores, the ice cubes they offer come from places such as Norway, the UK and the US. The price of Icelandic ice cubes can be as much as 40 percent higher than that of the imported ones.
Biologist Rannveig Magnúsdóttir, who works for Landvernd, commented, “I find this completely insane, as I’m sure most people do, and I think our cousins in Norway and Scotland laugh at the fact that they can sell Icelanders ice.” ....

Whole articles see links in the headers.
LOL a classic forecast discussion from the past.

FXUS74 KBMX 312011
SFDBHM
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
308 PM CDT MON MAY 31 1999

EPISODE LXV: THE DAYSHIFT MENACE.

IN A FORECAST OFFICE NOT VERY FAR, FAR AWAY, A BAND OF RAG-TAG
FORECASTERS POUR OVER THE VAST AND UNENDING STREAM OF SENSORY DATA.
PULLING OUT HIS LIGHT-PENCIL, THE NOT TOO YOUNG ISIXTYFIVE ANALYZES
SURFACE REPORTS. HE NOTICES THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO
BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN IMPERIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS TRANSMISSION.
SENSORS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS AREA. KNOWING THAT THIS CAN ONLY BE THE WORK OF THE
EMPIRE, THE NOT TOO YOUNG ISIXTYFIVE REMEMBERS THE TEACHINGS OF HIS
JEDI-FORECASTER. BELIEVE IN THE MODEL, BELIEVE IN THE MODEL.

FEELING A SLIGHT DISTURBANCE IN THE MODEL, IT INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING AT SEVERAL FORECAST
TIME-SECTION SCHEMATICS ACROSS THE AREA, SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH HEATING
OF THE DAY AND SEABREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SCATTERED IMPERIAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRUST THE MODEL ISIXTYFIVE,
A MYSTICAL VOICE SAYS. IMPERIAL COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE MODEL, A SHORTWAVE,
MOVES OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE.

FIRST PERIOD PROBABILITES WILL DEPEND ON LATEST SENSORY DATA.

MAY THE MODEL BE WITH YOU.

HSV BB 066/083 066/084 066 65432
BHM BB 066/084 066/084 066 65432
MGM BB 067/085 067/087 067 65432
MOB BB 069/083 069/086 069 65332
CSG BB 065/085 066/086 066 65232=

.BHM...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
Umm, blog is really slow tonight. No interesting weather in the US? Anyway, good night from Germany with this.

The Climate Questions the Next President Should Answer
Climate Central, Published: October 20th, 2016

More interesting new articles on Climate Central.

Some good pics for the fans of earthly fire in here:
Awesome volcanic showtime at Klyuchevskaya Sopka in Kamchatka
By Olga Gertcyk, 19 October 2016
The highest active volcano in Eurasia puts on display of its firepower captured in these remarkable pictures by Sergey Makurin.
Quoting 18. HurricaneFan:

We got a vortex message does that mean we have TD 16?

I've never witnessed a vortex message without a closed cylcone. That is what they are for.
Quoting 38. LargoFl:




Come on down......





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
315 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Short term...

a strong cold front currently stretches from extreme southeast
Texas through northwest Louisiana and up through western
Tennessee. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
associated with the front boundary.

The frontal boundary will rapidly move through the area by late this evening. Isolated
showers and a stray thunderstorm possible through this evening
along and ahead of the boundary with the higher chances being
farther north. Cooler and very dry conditions expected for Friday
through the upcoming weekend as a longwave trough takes hold of
the eastern third of the country.
Expect windy conditions tonight through Friday especially along and south of Lake Pontchartrain.
Daytime highs will be slightly below to near normal in the short
term. Brought overnight lows down a notch from previous packages
from Saturday morning through early next week as cold air drainage
will be dominate from the Tennessee Valley down through the
eastern and northeastern parts of the County Warning Area.

Long term...

a gradual moderation in temperatures with high and dry conditions
remaining through the middle of next week as upper trough exits
and ridge builds back in from the west. Next chance of rain not
till maybe the latter part of next week.


😯✌🌅😁🌃🌉🌎

Quoting 44. barbamz:

Some interesting news from "tropical" Iceland ;-)

Unusually warm temperatures last night
Iceland Monitor | Thu 20 Oct 2016
Unusually high temperatures were recorded in several places in North and North East Iceland, including Vopnafjörður and Ólafsfjörður where the temperatures was 17,7 degrees C [63.86F] and 17.3 degrees C. However, this is no heat wave but quite usual in light of the current weather conditions.
"The area of low pressure of the Greenland sea, the leftovers of hurricane Nicole is pumping warm air up to Iceland all the way from the southern oceans," says Helga Ívarsdóttir at the Iceland Met Office. ...


Obviously Ex-Nicole let Iceland ran out of ice cubes, lol (j/k)

Ice Cubes Imported to Iceland
By Vala Hafstað Society about 11 hours ago
Icelanders must import numerous necessities, but who would have guessed ice cubes were among them?
According to RÚV, ice cubes are imported to Iceland by the tons. They are sold in Icelandic grocery stores at a price far below that of Icelandic ice cubes. Consumers need to know that such an import leaves a large carbon footprint, a biologist at Landvernd, the Icelandic Environment Association, points out.
In Icelandic grocery stores, the ice cubes they offer come from places such as Norway, the UK and the US. The price of Icelandic ice cubes can be as much as 40 percent higher than that of the imported ones.
Biologist Rannveig Magnúsdóttir, who works for Landvernd, commented, “I find this completely insane, as I’m sure most people do, and I think our cousins in Norway and Scotland laugh at the fact that they can sell Icelanders ice.” ....

Whole articles see links in the headers.


Why not find out why it is cheaper to import ice and put that information in the article? No time to research the process being used in Iceland to make ice?
99L...

Giant eyewall alert:

Hong Kong Observatory

The No. 8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 km/h or more are expected from the northwest quarter.

At 7 AM HKT., Typhoon Haima was centered about 220 kilometers east southeast of Hong Kong (near 21.3N 116.0E) and is forecast to move northwest or north northwest at about 25 km/h towards the vicinity east of the Pearl River Estuary.

According to the present forecast track, Haima will be closest to Hong Kong around noon, skirting about 100 km to the east of the territory. The No. 8 Gale or Storm Signal is expected to remain in force most of the time during the day.

Northerly winds are affecting Hong Kong. Owing to terrain effect, winds in some areas are not strong for the time being. However, as Haima edges closer, local winds are expected to generally strengthen further. The rain bands of Haima will bring squalls and heavy rain to the territory. Seas are rough and there are swells. Members of the public should stay on high alert, stay away from the shoreline, and not to engage in water sports.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Lau Fau Shan and Chek Lap Kok were 48 and 47 km/h respectively.
Quoting 26. PedleyCA:


Pretty much the same in the Southern Calif region, but not worse here.


They need to add a new color if it gets worse here.

Meanwhile, from NOAA LOX:
Record hi temps already occurred at a few locations early this
afternoon, including LAX (97 degrees, broke record of 95 set in
1999), Oxnard NWS (97 degrees, broke record of 96 set in 1942),
Camarillo Airport (98 degrees, broke record of 96 set in 1965) and
Long Beach Airport (98 degrees, tied record of 98 set in 1965).
There is room for additional heating before the seabreeze kicks in
as well.
I'm not sold on the cold, southerly, persistent plunges for the southeast this coming winter depicted in Figure 4. From NASA forecast anomalies it looks warm over all the United States as well as globally other than in the seas right off the hot-Antarctic. Western Canada may get a winter, as well as most of Europe and India. The Eastern Arctic and Hudson Bay is forecast startling hot..

The Southeast United States may have a warm start to winter but then experience average temps in February. Central part of the country maybe cool in November. Cool shifts to the West for December. Cold around the Great Lakes in Feb with more average temps in the east. Other than that it all warm. January looks warm across the CONUS.


As for global precipitation Malaysia, Indonesia, North Australia, Papua New Guinea & Southern Philippines may see more flooding issues than the rest over the winter months. Over the United states it maybe a wetter winter especially in the west, the more toward the Northwest the wetter. California may see a notable flooding storm in January. South of the Great Lakes may see a good rain in December, bumping their season average higher than normal. October may be the last of our plentiful rain in Florida with it joining the rest of the Southeast for drier times December through February. (blue is dry, red is wet)
After months of extremely dry conditions, New England is finally set to receive beneficial rainfall through Sunday. This image shows the low's position at 12z on Saturday. Thanks to an influx of moisture from 99L; this system will help recharge dried-up wells and watersheds. :)

Quoting 47. ProgressivePulse:


I've never witnessed a vortex message without a closed cylcone. That is what they are for.

This is a first that I've seen as well. There is three vortex messages, one has surface winds of 30kts, yet it's still 99L..
Haima approaching China

Quoting 54. 1900hurricane:

Giant eyewall alert:




Impressive.
A rare sight for the Northeast this year...



Watch the area just off Nicaragua
Quoting 47. ProgressivePulse:

I've never witnessed a vortex message without a closed cylcone. That is what they are for.
Good catch. I can't remember one either.
27 Images of an abused world:

(You might care to turn off the music, it can be a bit cloying, but the images are something to see.)

Link
Sun is up on the giant eyewall of Haima.
Finally Central Florida's getting a nice cooldown this weekend! We should dip down to 54 in Orlando according to channal 9 by Sunday morning!!! Link
Quoting 62. JSparrow:

Haima approaching China



Wow that looks just like Ike when it hit Texas.
Quoting 59. SPShaw:

After months of extremely dry conditions, New England is finally set to receive beneficial rainfall through Sunday. This image shows the low's position at 12z on Saturday. Thanks to an influx of moisture from 99L; this system will help recharge dried-up wells and watersheds. :)



Bring it, please. Most everyone in southwest Nova Scotia need this rain. Just steer it away from Cape Breton, which has already had far too much.
NOW 366 DAYS AGO:

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

Although cloud tops have warmed since the previous advisory, the
overall convective cloud pattern has become a little better
organized. Dropsondes released from a NASA WB-57 aircraft conducting
research in Patricia earlier this afternoon for the Office of Naval
Research's Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment was helpful
in locating the low-level center, and also confirmed the development
of a weak mid-level eye-like feature noted in recent passive
microwave images. The initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt
based on a satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and
T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMMS ADT, making the cyclone the 16th named
storm of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. This
intensity is also supported by dropsonde data in the southeastern
quadrant of the cyclone between 2000-2200Z, which indicated surface
winds of 34-36 kt and also a fairly deep layer of 37-39 kt winds
from 1000-925 mb. Winds west of the center were 30 kt, suggesting
that the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event may be subsiding.

The initial motion estimate is 255/04 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Patricia is
expected to move west-southwestward to westward for the next 12
hours or so as the aforementioned gap wind event forces the cyclone
a little southward. After that time, Patricia is forecast to turn
west-northwestward on Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday as the
cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge that
extends from the central Gulf of Mexico southwestward into central
Mexico. Although there is some spread in the NHC track guidance, the
models are in fairly good agreement that Patricia should turn
north-northwestward to northward by 72 hours, making landfall in
southwestern Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies close to the consensus models TVCE and GFEX.

The large-scale environment of vertical shear less than 5 kt, very
high mid-level humidity values in excess of 80 percent, and SSTs
greater than 30C support at least steady strengthening until
landfall occurs. The possibility of rapid intensification (RI)
exists once a distinct eye feature develops, which could develop in
36 hours or so. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory in calling for Patricia to become a hurricane before making
landfall in Mexico, and closely follows the LGEM intensity model.
However, if RI should occur, then Patricia will likely be stronger
at landfall than the current forecast is indicating. After landfall,
the cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains
of Mexico.

A tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required by Wednesday
morning for portions of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 13.0N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.2N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND NEAR COAST
96H 25/0000Z 22.6N 105.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

#1stAnniversaryOfHurricanePatricia

Jeff Masters, please do a special blog about Patricia for us!!!!!
Quoting 61. Grothar:






Looks like this one may do a loop and approach the N Leewards from the ENE lol.

Also past few GEFS runs show numerous slow moving Lows over the N Leewards around Nov 1 :)
75. vis0
ImgLand.net image
Quoting 61. Grothar:





This wave needs to be mentioned by the NHC. Most models, with the exception of the EURO, develop it in the next 5 days. An ASCAT pass showed winds as high as 35 mph. It's been sustaining convection quite well for a wave this time of year.
Quoting 64. SPShaw:

A rare sight for the Northeast this year...



Send some more of it south east to nj then I will be happy☺
78. vis0
Quoting 61. Grothar:(see images in Quote61)
Quoting 76. HurricaneFan:


This wave needs to be mentioned by the NHC. Most models, with the exception of the EURO, develop it in the next 5 days. An ASCAT pass showed winds as high as 35 mph. It's been sustaining convection quite well for a wave this time of year.
Wave at 11N 40W has had trouble in spinning , as if a cartoon character starting a quick run on ice, its been slip sliding and not getting a foothold.
Once the thing-a-ma-blob became 99L near/over/all around Bahamas this 11N 40W wave has less detrimental shear near it.
If the 11N 40W wave can quietly limp to the Antilles then i think it might get that foothold. 
Even shear from 99L outflow i think will not hinder the 11W Wave as much as direct shear coming from C./ Northern S.America areas.
...it has rained .5 inches in the last 28 days here in Atlanta. I just watched all those clouds from this front just evaporate coming towards us on radar. My garden is dead. I wish we would get some rain, it's kind of dusty...
BB - How was the vacation earlier?

if jefff master gos on vacation may be we can see a few more named storms out there
Here in NW VT we are seeing more and more evidence of drought. Lake Champlain is several feet below normal, 7 feet below flood stage. A river near my house that usually floods fields in Spring is nearly dried up. And yet ~ can anyone explain this? ~ our grass is still green. Is that because the issue is more the water table than sun-heat? (We did have a hot, humid Summer, though.)

82- I think night time humidity helps plants for awhile. We still have tons of green in Atlanta because (I think) it gets so humid at night. Even so, we are like -25" rain for this year, some stuff just isn't doing so well. Lot of dry or low creeks as well.
After emerging from the Asian contiant I think Haima will do a loop then get picked up by a trough and caried towards or south of the Alutian Islands. Just my 2 cents worth!


99L has an appointment with a trough/cold front.



This is starting to get a little bit of a STS look to it....

Evening all...
Clear skies now but the rain gauge got a good workout last night, 1.6" puts me over 8" for Oct. here in Acme, WA. Thinking I've got a shot at 10" for the month. Temps were upper 40's- mid 50's to warm for snow in the foothills, only the high peaks. Rivers are high and the neiborhood waterfall is booming.
99L
Top to bottom: GFS, UKM, CMC.





Evenin', Baha.
Iz broke.

Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas


"SPGF1 ceased transmitting after 2300Z 10/06/16 during the passage of Hurricane Matthew."

SPGF1

Last transmitted peak wind gust: 46.8 meters/sec or 105 mph.

#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GDR GST GTIME
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s degT m/s hhmm
2016 10 06 23 00 055 35.0 40 46.8 2211

Pressure:
#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS PTDY TIDE
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s m/s m sec sec degT hPa degC degC degC nmi hPa ft
2016 10 06 23 00 50 35.0 39.6 MM MM MM MM 972.3 25.6 MM 24.8 MM -20.8 MM
My preliminary guess is that we'll see a near average winter.

At any rate, I certainly never count on seeing snow in any given winter. Not where I am.
Quoting 85. beell:



99L has an appointment with a trough/cold front.




Typical late October garbage.
Quoting 41. NativeSun:

Where you live is an arid area of the U.S., so unfortunately you can experience long term droughts.


Eastern Southern California, Northwest of Riverside CA.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
5:30 AM IST October 21 2016
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over east central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression and lays centered near 13.5n 88.5e, about 500 km west northwest of Port Blair (43333) and 900 km west southwest of Yangoon (48097).

The system is likely to move east northeastwards towards Myanmar coast and intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lie over central and adjoining southern Bay of Bengal around the system center. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -75C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression. The central pressure is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
=======================
The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. It increases towards northeast sector. Low level convergence around the system center has increased during past 24 hours and is about 15x10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence has also increased over the area during past 24 hours and is about 20x10-5second-1. The low level relative vorticity is about 100x10-6second-1. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-25knots) around the system center and it decreases towards northeast becoming 5-10 knots near Arakan coast. Upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in phase-7 and is expected to move to phase 8 during next 3 days. The amplitude is very less. Though phase 7 of Madden-Julian Oscillation is not favorable, the very less amplitude in this phase will not inhibit the intensification of the system.
Quoting 83. aldente:

82- I think night time humidity helps plants for awhile. We still have tons of green in Atlanta because (I think) it gets so humid at night. Even so, we are like -25" rain for this year, some stuff just isn't doing so well. Lot of dry or low creeks as well.


Thanks, that could be a factor here.

I learned tonight that the Ticonderoga ferry that crosses Lake Champlain near the narrow southern end has had to stop working due to not having enough water to make it all the way across...!! That's bad.
I have a couple of question about hurricanes and climate change that I am hoping someone here can answer. I am not a weather person, but my understanding is that hurricanes are kind of heat engines. The warm ocean represents the heat source and the top of the troposphere is the cold sink. Climate change is supposed to warm the troposphere while simultaneously cooling the stratosphere, so my thinking is that the temperature differential is greater at both ends potentially making the hurricanes stronger than just warmer oceans would. Is this already taken into account when climate scientists model the effects of a warmer climate on hurricanes?

My second question is related. Can the vertical convection of hurricanes offset the enhance greenhouse effect in any meaningful way? I read somewhere that the average hurricane somehow uses the energy equivalent of 10,000 Hiroshima-type bombs during its life. Can this make a dent?

Thanks to anyone who can help out with these questions.

Peace
Quoting 92. PedleyCA:



Eastern Southern California, Northwest of Riverside CA.


Maybe you will get rain next year Ped... Praying for you.
Quoting 96. Dakster:



Maybe you will get rain next year Ped... Praying for you.

Maybe even sooner.... there was some rain near here the other day, just not right here. They got .05 at the airport and .03 at Indian Hills 1/2 Mi North. CoCoRaHS site Near here got just a trace. Got the ground wet here. that was it.
guess they're sticking with BOB03 now...

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB 03-2016
8:30 AM IST October 21 2016
==============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near13.5N 88.5E, about 500 km west­ northwest of Port Blair and 900 km west­ southwest of Yangon (Myanmar).

The system is very likely to move initially east­ northeastwards towards Myanmar coast. It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours and into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the convective clouds show shear pattern. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lie over Bay of Bengal between 11.0N to 16.0N and 83.0E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -75C .The convective clouds show continuous organization and convective clusters are coming together. However, there are three clusters close to each other in association with the system.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression. The central pressure is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
=======================
The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. It increases towards northeast sector. Low level convergence around the system center has increased during past 24 hours and is about 15x10-5 second-1. Upper level divergence has also increased over the area during past 24 hours and is about 20x10-5second-1. The low level relative vorticity is about 100x10-6second-1. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-25 knots) around the system center and it decreases towards northeast becoming 5-10 knots near Arakan coast. Upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in phase-7and is expected to move to phase 8 during next 3 days.The amplitude is very less. Though phase 7 of Madden-Julian Oscillation is not favorable, the very less amplitude in this phase will not inhibit the intensification of the system. The system is expected to move east northeastwards as it is being steered by the low to middle level winds and the system is embedded in the westerlies in the lower and middle levels
Quoting 82. listenerVT:

Here in NW VT we are seeing more and more evidence of drought. Lake Champlain is several feet below normal, 7 feet below flood stage. A river near my house that usually floods fields in Spring is nearly dried up. And yet ~ can anyone explain this? ~ our grass is still green. Is that because the issue is more the water table than sun-heat? (We did have a hot, humid Summer, though.)



i think most of the Northeast has had their second or third driest summer on record.
Fortunately, NW VT appears to be in the 3 inch rain slot forecast through this weekend.
Madagascar drought: catastrophe looms as 850,000 go hungry, says UN
Drought in the south leaves households experiencing emergency levels of hunger, with nothing but wild fruits to eat
Reuters/The Guardian, Friday 21 October 2016 01.44 BST

South Africa: Drought Continues Despite Rains - Umgeni Water
October, 20.

Zimbabwe: WFP - 80,000 Children Hit By Severe Hunger
October, 17.
The country is experiencing a serious shortage of cereals owing to the El Nino induced drought which affected most parts of the Southern African region in the 2015-2016 farming season.
The drought, which saw the government declare a State of Emergency in February and appeal for international help, has left an estimated four million Zimbabweans needing food aid.
Quoting 89. beell:

Evenin', Baha.
Iz broke.

Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas


"SPGF1 ceased transmitting after 2300Z 10/06/16 during the passage of Hurricane Matthew."

SPGF1

Last transmitted peak wind gust: 46.8 meters/sec or 105 mph.

#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GDR GST GTIME
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s degT m/s hhmm
2016 10 06 23 00 055 35.0 40 46.8 2211

Pressure:
#YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS PTDY TIDE
#yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s m/s m sec sec degT hPa degC degC degC nmi hPa ft
2016 10 06 23 00 50 35.0 39.6 MM MM MM MM 972.3 25.6 MM 24.8 MM -20.8 MM
Hey beell..... Lotta things are broken in Grand Bahama right now
102. beell
Quoting 91. KoritheMan:



Typical late October garbage.


Meh...

Potential ST transition has value for me. Regardless of aesthetic appearance, chase-ability, or doom potential.
Always something(s) to observe/evaluate/guess.

"Garbage" is not in my value system when it comes to weather.
:)
The storm at the southern tip of Greenland obviously is still Ex-Nicole, lol:





Have a nice morning and day, everyone!
104. elioe
Quoting 95. leprachaun:

I have a couple of question about hurricanes and climate change that I am hoping someone here can answer. I am not a weather person, but my understanding is that hurricanes are kind of heat engines. The warm ocean represents the heat source and the top of the troposphere is the cold sink. Climate change is supposed to warm the troposphere while simultaneously cooling the stratosphere, so my thinking is that the temperature differential is greater at both ends potentially making the hurricanes stronger than just warmer oceans would. Is this already taken into account when climate scientists model the effects of a warmer climate on hurricanes?

My second question is related. Can the vertical convection of hurricanes offset the enhance greenhouse effect in any meaningful way? I read somewhere that the average hurricane somehow uses the energy equivalent of 10,000 Hiroshima-type bombs during its life. Can this make a dent?

Thanks to anyone who can help out with these questions.

Peace


It's almost like that. Actually the thing about the temperatures in upper troposphere/stratosphere is not such that the temperature difference would dictate the strength of hurricanes. Basically stratosphere is a stable region, where outgoing radiation is in balance with sunlight that has been absorbed below that level. Troposphere is a region, where greenhouse gases hinder the outgoing radiation enough, that to get a balance, heat must be brought up by convection. As there will be more greenhouse gases, this region will extend farther up. The warm core of hurricanes causes the surface pressure to be lower than in the environment, whereas in uppermost troposphere, the pressure of hurricane is greater than in the environment at same altitude. Troposphere gets higher -> the extent of the warm core grows -> the pressure difference between core of hurricane and environment gets bigger.

So yeah, you're right that it's not only warmer waters that make hurricanes stronger. But I have neither any clue, how well has this been taken into account in climate models.

By extension, the answer to your second question is "yes". Same is true with every convection. Convection decreases the average temperature difference between surface and higher parts of atmosphere. As those parts become warmer, the atmosphere radiates more heat to space.
105. beell
Quoting 101. BahaHurican:

Hey beell..... Lotta things are broken in Grand Bahama right now


No doubt, Baha. A small issue for sure.

Not often we get a dependable land-based station in the eyewall of a hurricane. I miss ole SPGF1. Discovered the loss last night when looking at 99L.

Loss of the station occurred AOA 23Z right around the time of the 105 mph peak gust. Who knows what happened after that?


10/06 22Z


10/06 23Z


10/07 00Z

gfs's next system seems to get blocked from moving north and drifts wsw towards the BVIs.
107. Tcwx2
Wow you are lucky I haven't had any in the past month (28 days) in Andalusia, Alabama.
Quoting 79. aldente:

...it has rained .5 inches in the last 28 days here in Atlanta. I just watched all those clouds from this front just evaporate coming towards us on radar. My garden is dead. I wish we would get some rain, it's kind of dusty...
108. elioe
Quoting 103. barbamz:



Wondering if Southern Greenland can have storms like piterat. Nanortalik, Qaqortoq, Narsaq, and smaller communities might be in trouble.
Good Morning; 99L is playing dry-ring around the rosy this morning; not looking too promising and good news for Bermuda: large parts of the Central Atlantic are full of water vapor with a few pockets of very dry air...........99L picked one of those pockets......

Quoting 92. PedleyCA:



Eastern Southern California, Northwest of Riverside CA.
Hi, isn't most of Southern California a reclaimed desert region?
Quoting 109. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; 99L is playing dry-ring around the rosy this morning; not looking too promising and good news for Bermuda: large parts of the Central Atlantic are full of water vapor with a few pockets of very dry air...........99L picked one of those pockets......




The cold front to the west is marching like an approaching army to destroy 99L when they meet. 99L's days are numbered.
Haima
Quoting 110. NativeSun:

Hi, isn't most of Southern California a reclaimed desert region?


I'm not sure what you mean by "reclaimed" but my sister lives near Riverside CA, she used to work at Riverside Community College. She lives in a house in the desert, up near Joshua Tree CA. They have city water, but they are still in the desert. There are thousands of houses in the desert around there, and roads and highways.
Is Florida reclaimed from the Atlantic Ocean?
I think of Joshua Tree as a place where a lot of artists live.
Quoting 79. aldente:

...it has rained .5 inches in the last 28 days here in Atlanta. I just watched all those clouds from this front just evaporate coming towards us on radar. My garden is dead. I wish we would get some rain, it's kind of dusty...


Stop bragging about all your rain lol... 33 days here now in Birmingham without any measurable rain, the 3 day streak of record highs we just had doesn't help the drought either. The models aren't forecasting any rain for at least another week, looks like we'll hit at least the 40 day rainless mark.
GFS wants to develop 99B into a very small cyclone.


The Doolittle House is in Joshua Tree.
Good article on science lessons for the next President; here is one on sea level rise; a few milimeters a year on average do not seem like much but the breakdown as to regional impact is fascinating:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/10/science-le ssons-next-president

Seas are rising sooner than you think

Regional variation means Atlantic shorelines are already at risk of flooding

What the science says: There's a political truism that also applies to understanding one of the most pressing problems created by human-driven climate change: All sea level rise is local. As the world warms, its oceans are swelling by an average of 3.2 millimeters a year; they have risen by nearly the height of a playing card since 1993. Some 40% of this increase stems from the physical expansion of water as it heats. The rest is mostly caused by melting mountain glaciers and, especially in recent years, retreating ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. If current emission trends continue, the seas could rise by a half-meter or more by century's end.

But these tidy figures hide a harsh and more complex reality: Because of regional geology, ocean currents, and shifts in gravitational pull caused by changes on Earth's surface, such as the melting of massive ice sheets, the ocean does not rise evenly everywhere. That means some U.S. shorelines are at much greater risk of near-term flooding than others. Although the erosion of southern Louisiana is well-known, for instance, much of the East Coast is sinking as Earth's mantle, deep below, continues to adjust in complex ways to the disappearance of weighty ice age glaciers. From Maryland to the Carolinas, groundwater pumping is exacerbating subsidence. And Atlantic currents that whisk warm, tropical water north, and, ultimately, away from the coast, have weakened in recent years, allowing water to slosh toward land. Together, these forces mean East Coast sea levels are rising at double the global rate, and at triple the average in Virginia and many points north.

Why it matters: Nearly 40% of the U.S. population lives near the coast, and shorelines host extensive infrastructure—including roads, rail lines, ports, military bases, and energy, water, and sewer plants—that will cost billions of dollars to protect or replace. Already, shorefront communities in hot spots of sea level rise, such as Hampton Roads, Virginia, and Miami Beach, Florida, are seeing tidal floods—even on sunny days—that clog traffic, poison lawns, and corrode utilities. Key ecosystems are also at risk of inundation, such as wetlands and aquatic grass beds that help protect coastlines from storms and provide important nursery grounds for economically important fish. This rising stage also allows stormwaters to surge deeper and higher inland, exacerbating their damage.

Pending policy issues: Given that some increase in sea level is now inevitable as a result of past emissions, how can the federal government best help communities prepare for and adapt to rising waters? How can policymakers prevent initiatives involving many agencies at the local, state, and federal levels from duplicating effort or engaging in turf wars? Who should decide when communities build defenses, or simply retreat? What research should be funded on climate and adaptation? (Local planners, for instance, would benefit if researchers could reduce the uncertainty in projections of sea level rise over the next century, by better understanding how ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica are melting.) Above all: How can the world reduce the global emissions of greenhouse gases that are driving sea level rise? —Paul Voosen

Quoting 97. PedleyCA:


Maybe even sooner.... there was some rain near here the other day, just not right here. They got .05 at the airport and .03 at Indian Hills 1/2 Mi North. CoCoRaHS site Near here got just a trace. Got the ground wet here. that was it.


Been snowing here for 6 hours or so...

I guess 'wet' is better than nothing at all.
Another year that NOAA gets egged this Winter. Folks this Winter could get brutal as head deeper into November/December as this -NAO means business. Also with lack of La-Nina infact we may trend toward El-Nino next Spring. This will lead to a very active Midwest and Eastern US with lots of cold and likely wet at times across the SE Us. This is reminding me of the 2013/2014 NOAA Flop of a forecast.
At 6:55 AM, about 80 yards from the Atlantic, my outdoor digi-temp read 69.7.

The worm has officially turned in Palm Beach. Bring it on.
The NOAA forecast the last several years have been off and this year could even be worse for this agency. As there is no defined La-Nina and with forecast showing warm neutral conditions later this Winter this will cause a very volatile forecast across the US especially east of the Mississippi.

Latest Euro Weeklies are showing a very active November across the US with bouts of severe weather and shots of cold later in the month.
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

Another year that NOAA gets egged this Winter. Folks this Winter could get brutal as head deeper into November/December as this -NAO means business. Also with lack of La-Nina infact we may trend toward El-Nino next Spring. This will lead to a very active Midwest and Eastern US with lots of cold and likely wet at times across the SE Us. This is reminding me of the 2013/2014 NOAA Flop of a forecast.


its been vary wet in CA we may see other AR event come next weekend with some rain on tue this raining season is off too a vary good start so i hop this keeps going


we could be in for a vary bad tornado season come the spring time for the mid west if the W stays vary active
NOAA really isn't paying attention to models as more of a guess by this agency. Once gain I will set back and laugh as NOAA gets rammed up and down with this Major bust of a forecast they have out.



Quoting 105. beell:



No doubt, Baha. A small issue for sure.

Not often we get a dependable land-based station in the eyewall of a hurricane. I miss ole SPGF1. Discovered the loss last night when looking at 99L.

Loss of the station occurred AOA 23Z right around the time of the 105 mph peak gust. Who knows what happened after that?


10/06 22Z


10/06 23Z


10/07 00Z




That heavy band over my area brought me 8.21" of rain from Matthew here in western Seminole County.
Quoting 123. thetwilightzone:



its been vary wet in CA we may see other AR event come next weekend with some rain on tue this raining season is off too a vary good start so i hop this keeps going


we could be in for a vary bad tornado season come the spring time for the mid west if the W stays vary active


I see November being potentially deadly with what could be some major outbreaks of severe weather. Very cold air is being projected later in November and there will be a clash zone from the Mississippi Valley East and South.
"Iceland drills hottest hole to tap into energy of molten magma"
Link
Quoting 126. StormTrackerScott:



I see November being potentially deadly with what could be some major outbreaks of severe weather. Very cold air is being projected later in November and there will be a clash zone from the Mississippi Valley East and South.


what do you see for CA this winter CA is all ready off too a good start will this keep going ? all so any ch that CA could see a few cold snaps ?
Quoting 114. ChiThom:

I think of Joshua Tree as a place where a lot of artists live.


I lived there for a few years, gorgeous desert area. It's a desert area I'd be tempted to live in again were I ever to return to the US. Doesn't get as hot as the desert valley being about 3000 feet up and gets cool breezes off the mountains often enough. Still don't fancy earthquakes though LOL

As for the original question from NativeSun, the interior eastern regions are desert, and not as heavily populated. Mountains usually blocking precipitation from reaching there much. Mountains and coast not so much desert, but still much drier climates than N. Calif coastal areas.
Quoting 128. thetwilightzone:



what do you see for CA this winter CA is all ready off too a good start will this keep going ? all so any ch that CA could see a few cold snaps ?


I think people will be surprised as once again there is no La-Nina and infact the configuration of this warm ring around the Pacific could bode well for California this Winter. I would say average to above average precip should be expected.

Also the EPO could be negative much of the Winter which also bodes well for California. I really think NOAA is going off a limb once again with its Winter forecast as if the last several bust weren't bad enough.

Quoting 130. StormTrackerScott:



I think people will be surprised as once again there is no La-Nina and infact the configuration of this warm ring around the Pacific could bode well for California this Winter. I would say average to above average precip should be expected.

Also the EPO could be negative much of the Winter which also bodes well for California. I really think NOAA is going off a limb once again with its Winter forecast as if the last several bust weren't bad enough.




thanks do you see CA getting any cold snaps at some point this fall and winter?
Quoting 131. thetwilightzone:



thanks do you see CA getting any cold snaps at some point this fall and winter?


Not sure about that but models are showing several bouts of heavy rain across California the next couple of weeks a trend that could carry you guys thru the Winter. This looks very promising for California.

Also notice the wettness building across FL after this front passes this weekend. -NAO does often lead to whacky weather patterns across the US and anytime you get these clash of airmasses like what is being predicted in November then watchout for severe weather.

Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:



Not sure about that but models are showing several bouts of heavy rain across California the next couple of weeks a trend that could carry you guys thru the Winter. This looks very promising for California.




thats vary good news i wounder when CA will start seeing strong too vary strong storms
If this was a 2010/2011 Winter then I would say the forecast that NOAA has is spot on but with no La-Nina present and a positive PDO expect Winters like 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 1992/1993. Infact November 1992 was crazy across the Deep South.
Hate to rub it in on Ped & those in other drought areas, but I think my 1" guess may have been too low. Played darts last night & my teammate from a town just 4 mi SW said he had 3" in his gauge & he heard the towns along I-70 corridor received 5-6". We needed some, but relatively long dry spell w/ a few light showers here and there did allow the farmers to get the majority of the crop out in ideal conditions.

Weren't supposed to hit 40 this a.m., but I guess cloud cover cleared earlier than forecast, so hit upper 30s/low 40s a day early, but so far, haven't lowered tomorrow's lows, so looks like no frost yet, back to 50 lows by midweek.

Currently 49 w/ 39 dew pt., on way to mid 50s high in S C IL. Press 30.23" w/ Northerly winds 8-10 gusting above 15.
Quoting 134. thetwilightzone:



thats vary good news i wounder when CA will start seeing strong too vary strong storms


The warm wing across the Pacific could yield some very intense storms across California this Winter
Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:

If this was a 2010/2011 Winter then I would say the forecast that NOAA has is spot on but with no La-Nina present and a positive PDO expect Winters like 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 1992/1993. Infact November 1992 was crazy across the Deep South.


could 2016/17 be like 2010/11 winter ? if i recall that winter was this down right stormy and crazy here in CA
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:

NOAA really isn't paying attention to models as more of a guess by this agency. Once gain I will set back and laugh as NOAA gets rammed up and down with this Major bust of a forecast they have out.






C minus for spelling errors.
Quoting 138. thetwilightzone:



could 2016/17 be like 2010/11 winter ? if i recall that winter was this down right stormy and crazy here in CA


That would be a nasty winter for Anchorage too...
The models have had a hard time with this cold fronts impact on the east coast
Everything seems to be in contradiction over the last few years........
Things are just changing and the models are built on what we have recorded over time
They are not able to process unknowns or extreme variability
Even the images posted by dr. Masters contradict each other

Quoting 139. Patrap:



C minus for spelling errors.
Quoting 110. NativeSun:

Hi, isn't most of Southern California a reclaimed desert region?


Semi-arid, I wouldn't call it Desert. Stuff grows where there is water...
68.4 F here as the front came thru early before dawn.

Gawjus.

👻
Quoting 119. Dakster:



Been snowing here for 6 hours or so...

I guess 'wet' is better than nothing at all.


I see 3 chances in the forecast, one is a good soaking(for here).
Indian Hills PWS
The dry core of 99L is trying to catch up with the convection firing just to the North of the core and the pocket of warmer SSTs it is near is probably helping a little bit; it is trying to be a contender but running out of time as it moves North towards absorption by the approaching front.....Does look better on the convective front through than it did this morning. 










"Admin Notice:
When using Dr. Masters' blog..."

Are edits coming to the things that still say "Dr. Masters" on it?
Quoting 144. Patrap:

68.4 F here as the front came thru early before dawn.

Gawjus.

👻
Nice...Upper 30's here tonight....patchy frost..
Quoting 141. 19N81W:

The models have had a hard time with this cold fronts impact on the east coast


This is why most of us rely on StormTrackerScott.
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:



The warm wing across the Pacific could yield some very intense storms across California this Winter

NASA's GMAO model gets epic with CA rain in January.
What did he say?
Because I have been in Baltimore for 3 days and Wu forecast says 90% starting soon and they have been for calling for rain since yesterday morning and much cooler. Sitting on the inner harbour and it's warm and sunny
Quoting 151. Llamaluvr:


This is why most of us rely on StormTrackerScott.
Quoting 142. 19N81W:

Everything seems to be in contradiction over the last few years........
Things are just changing and the models are built on what we have recorded over time
They are not able to process unknowns or extreme variability
Even the images posted by dr. Masters contradict each other




The governing equations are still the same. Physics parameterisations may need a little adjustments but Atmos 2.0 is still modelable with current models. This is more of a risk for statistical, analog, and human experience based forecast systems. The model adustments we need to make to adjust for the increased spatial resolution that computer technology is now allowing, are larger, for example global models are going to become non hydrostatic within ten years, probably within just a few. Regional models (e.g. NAM) made this transition ten years ago. Hydrostatic models do not have an equation to forecast vertical motion.. it is diagnosed from other fields which is fine for large scales but breaks down for small (and now resolvable) scales. But nonhydrostatic models evaluate vertical motion directly from acceleration terms in the primitive equations as the horizonal motions have been since the 50s.
Quoting 153. 19N81W:

What did he say?
Because I have been in Baltimore for 3 days and Wu forecast says 90% starting soon and they have been for calling for rain since yesterday morning and much cooler. Sitting on the inner harbour and it's warm and sunny



Yeah the front has been slow to get through the Mid Atlantic and we'll squeeze out one more hot day east of the foothills. But it is coming. Unfortunately not with a good soaking rain.
Quoting 141. 19N81W:

The models have had a hard time with this cold fronts impact on the east coast



Just consistently too fast. They nailed the backdoor front thursday morning though.
Any Boston College alumni here?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 113. ChiThom:



I'm not sure what you mean by "reclaimed" but my sister lives near Riverside CA, she used to work at Riverside Community College. She lives in a house in the desert, up near Joshua Tree CA. They have city water, but they are still in the desert. There are thousands of houses in the desert around there, and roads and highways.
Is Florida reclaimed from the Atlantic Ocean?
Very much so, when the sea level rises, due to the ice melting.
Can't agree on a forecast for the 2016-2017 winter weather, but we MUST believe that climate change forecasts for the next several decades are carved in stone.

But it is the goal right that is important, not how you get there.

BZ

They cannot get forecast right four days from now
They cannot get forecast right four days from now