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Haima Slams into Northern Philippines

By: Bob Henson 3:57 PM GMT on October 19, 2016

Still raging at Category 4 strength, Typhoon Haima (dubbed Lawin in the Philippines) was moving into the northern Philippines on Wednesday night local time. As of 9:00 am EDT Wednesday (9:00 pm local time), Haima was located about 235 miles northeast of Manila, moving west-northwest at about 19 mph. Haima became Earth’s seventh Category 5 storm of the year on Tuesday, with top sustained winds peaking at 165 mph and a minimum central pressure estimated at 900 mb by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Interactions with the mountainous island of Luzon have since chipped away at Haima’s strength. Top sustained winds were down to 120 knots (140 mph) as of 9 am EDT Wednesday. As noted by Jonathan Erdman (weather.com), if Haima makes landfall with sustained winds of at least 113 knots (130 mph), it will be the first Category 4 storm to strike northeast Luzon since Naigae in September 2011.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image from Japan’s Himawari-8 satellite of Typhoon Haima as of 1430Z (10:30 pm local time or 10:30 am EDT) Wednesday, October 19, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from Aparri, on the north coast of Luzon, shows the center of Typhoon Haima approaching at 10:00 am EDT (10:00 pm local time) Wednesday, October 19, 2016. Image credit: PAGASA.

Haima remained a gigantic and powerful typhoon as it approached Luzon, with hurricane-force winds extending out up to 75 miles from its center and tropical-storm force winds extending up to 235 miles. Fortunately, the winds on the stronger right-hand side of Haima, north of its center, will deliver their greatest punch to a fairly sparsely populated stretch of coastline in far northeast Luzon. A storm surge of up to 10 feet is possible within bays in this region, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration. There are no cities along this coast the size of Tacloban City, where the storm surge associated with Super Typhoon Haiyan killed more than 5000 people in 2013. The largest population center of far northeast Luzon is Tuguegarao City, located in the Cagayan Valley about 25 miles inland and shielded by a coastal range of mountains.

Given the size and strength of Haima, massive amounts of rain (10” - 20”, with higher amounts locally) can be expected over most of the northern half of the island of Luzon. These rains will fall atop ground saturated by the passage of former Category 4 Typhoon Sariki, which makes inland flooding the biggest concern from Haima. After exiting the Philippines, a weakened Haima will continue northwestward, making landfall on the China coast east of Hong Kong as a tropical storm or perhaps a Category 1 typhoon around Saturday night local time.


Figure 3. This “day-night band” image of Haima from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi NPP satellite captures the storm while it was at super typhoon strength well east of the Philippines (outlined at far left) at 1642Z (12:42 pm EDT) Tuesday, October 18, 2016. Image credit: NOAA

99L unlikely to amount to much
Major development doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Invest 99L, a loosely organized, elongated cluster of showers and thunderstorms (convection) well east of the Bahamas. There is no closed circulation with 99L, and its convection remained paltry and fragmented from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Strong wind shear of around 30 - 35 knots continues to plague 99L, inhibiting organization of the convection that’s managing to hang on with the help of warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 29°C (84°F) and a fairly moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidities around 65 - 75%).


Figure 4. Enhanced infrared image of showers and thunderstorms associated with 99L well east of the Bahamas as of 1415Z (10:15 am EDT) Wednesday, October 19, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Outlook for 99L
As it drifts northward and then northwestward over the next couple of days, 99L will move over progressively cooler SSTs as strong wind shear continues. About half of the members of the 00Z Wednesday GFS and ECMWF ensembles develop 99L to low-end tropical storm strength for a brief period, mostly around Thursday or Friday, when a strong upper-level trough will be approaching the eastern U.S. The dynamics associated with this trough, together with an upper-level low situated near 99L, would tend to favor 99L developing as a subtropical storm (if it did intensify) and eventually merging with the front. In its 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center is giving 99L a 60% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by Friday and an 80% chance by Monday. I would peg the odds of 99L becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm at less than 50%. Meanwhile, the approaching front is expected to produce heavy rains of 2” - 6” from eastern Pennsylvania across upstate New York, northern New England, and far southeast Canada.

In the Eastern Pacific, NHC is monitoring three areas of interest, none of which are likely to develop over at least the next couple of days.


Figure 5. Surface winds over and near Greenland show the circulation associated with former Nicole as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Wednesday, October 19, 2016.

Ex-Nicole helps trigger fierce downslope winds over southeast Greenland
After nearly two weeks as a tropical cyclone roaming the Atlantic, including a direct hit on Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole were delivering a noteworthy parting shot to Greenland in the form of a localized wind called the piteraq (“that which attacks you”). A piteraq involves very cold, dense surface air descending from the Greenland plateau and accelerating in response to strong low pressure off the east coast. The EUMETSAT agency has an excellent explainer on the piteraq. Gradually being enveloped by a larger mid-latitude cyclone and front, Nicole was approaching far south Greenland on Wednesday as a still-powerful 966-millibar low, providing the strong pressure gradient needed for a piteraq to develop. Winds were sustained as high as 47 mph and gusting up to 68 mph on Wednesday morning at Tasillaq, on Greenland’s east coast, where coastal obstructions can cause a piteraq to evolve into an even more localized wind called a neqajaq. Thanks to wunderground member barbamz for finding and posting background information on the piteraq in the comments of our last post.

We’ll be back on Thursday with a new post.

Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Work colleague in Manila (on the late shift) reports the wind's getting up.
Thank You Mr. Henson; another big Typhoon in the West-Pac and hopefully they will fare better than with Haiyan (5,000 casualties stills boggles the mind).  In terms of 99L and the Atlantic in general, shear levels are increasing as usual as the season winds down in the MDR so the prognosis is not good.  Most favorable shear areas are currently around Florida and right off the Eastern Seaboard but no current frontal remnants in those particular vicinities to take advantage.



 
Afternoon all .... I admit to reading the info about 99L before going back to see what went on with Haima and Nicole .... lol .... post-cyclonic paranoia ..... lol ...
Also .... is everyone in FL, GA, SC and NC back up and online after Matthew? I haven't been able to get on very often before now .... and thus haven't a clear idea of how the hurricane impacted WUbloggers ....
So looking at the map of the northern Philippines, the land has a mountain range on both the east and west areas with a valley in the middle.
With rainfall of up to or in excess of 20 inches there should be some very serous flooding in that area. Taking into account the speed of the typhoon, there will be a lot of rainfall on a north south line and nowhere much for it to go as the ground is saturated to start with and doubtless the rivers are already swollen.



That elongated valley is looking like a disaster area in the making, the river area in the centre needs watching very carefully.
Quoting 4. BahaHurican:

Also .... is everyone in FL, GA, SC and NC back up and online after Matthew? I haven't been able to get on very often before now .... and thus haven't a clear idea of how the hurricane impacted WUbloggers ....


South Florida was completely back to normal about 12 hours after the storm had passed. Some of my friends in Central and Northern Florida took a day or two to get back to normal. I did have a one friend whose family lost power for 6 days in St. Augustine area due to a downed power line, but that was about the worst I heard. SC and NC did not get off that easy.
Additionally, the Prime Minister said here this morning that losses throughout the archipelago would likely exceed half a billion dollars.

I just took a quick look at the Wiki article on Matthew and find it inexplicable that there is absolutely no mention of the damage caused to the capital city, which is still without power in most of the southern coastline and through parts of the centre of the island. Also, North Andros was heavily damaged, with devastating impacts to Lowe Sound, Andros. There was also what could be construed as an indirect death there, as a resident experienced a heart attack and died while trying to fight off the impacts of storm surge that was flooding his house at the time.

All of this is well documented through newspaper articles in periodicals [Nassau Guardian, Bahamas Tribune, Nassau Journal, etc] that are available online. While I know that Bahamians are a resilient people, I certainly don't want to give the impression that homes, businesses and infrastructure here were not heavily and adversely impacted by Matthew.

Quoting 6. PlazaRed:

So looking at the map of the northern Philippines, the land has a mountain range on both the east and west areas with a valley in the middle.
With rainfall of up to or in excess of 20 inches there should be some very serous flooding in that area. Taking into account the speed of the typhoon, there will be a lot of rainfall on a north south line and nowhere much for it to go as the ground is saturated to start with and doubtless the rivers are already swollen.



That elongated valley is looking like a disaster area in the making, the river area in the centre needs watching very carefully.
Are the western mountains volcanic, by any chance? I know there have been some serious lahars in the Philippines during typhoons ....
Josh celebrating his 941 mb reading in the eye :)




Quoting 10. BahaHurican:

Are the western mountains volcanic, by any chance? I know there have been some serious lahars in the Philippines during typhoons ....

Looking at a physical map of the area there appears to be 5 volcanos in the north of the island, 3 to the west, one to the west and one to the south.
The whole area will probably be volcanic as its on the edge of the Pacific ring of fire.
I cant seem to find a volcanic map which will paste into the blog.

Meanwhile in the CONUS...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191705Z - 191830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SO FAR...SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE PERSISTENTLY
ROTATING STORMS. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
HAS STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH SO THAT ANY STORMS ROOTED
CLOSER TO THE BUILDING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE HAS RISEN
TO 2000-2500 J PER KG IN THIS AREA/ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL. THE COVERAGE
OF NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE MCD AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CONIGLIO/THOMPSON.. 10/19/2016


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...T SA...

LAT...LON 37309472 37889464 38159407 38269293 38279247 38499142
38698994 38278906 37228884 36768940 36259147 36039264
36069363 36009445 36349490 37309472

Yellow Alert.
I disagree.
I love the use of local terms to describe their weather events. Bravo.
(“that which attacks you”) A piteraq. Love it.
Quoting 6. PlazaRed:

So looking at the map of the northern Philippines, the land has a mountain range on both the east and west areas with a valley in the middle.
With rainfall of up to or in excess of 20 inches there should be some very serous flooding in that area. Taking into account the speed of the typhoon, there will be a lot of rainfall on a north south line and nowhere much for it to go as the ground is saturated to start with and doubtless the rivers are already swollen. That elongated valley is looking like a disaster area in the making, the river area in the centre needs watching very carefully.


It depends and varies wildly. First you may need to see the population density. (Map found via Google)

Then take a closer look at the geography of the Cagayan compared to more inland areas like the CAR (in the mountains, where there are quite a lot of people under a lower signal warning).

First this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cagayan_Valley

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordillera_Central_ (Luzon)

Also here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordillera_Administr ative_Region

The biggest risk in these larger inland communities is the same as always, landslides (urban or remote)

Many places have min-hydro power systems that help a bit with flood control, but that's only because they got together and stopped developers of massive hyrdo projects that basically want to fill an extinct volcano with water :-) The mini-hyrdo systems were designed to account for typhoon season -- but like anything, they have to be monitored.

Side note: The CAR linked above, is really like its own country more ways that one. One post-war plan did make it an autonomous region, but that was scrapped.
Our local news station WPBF in the Palm Beaches, the meteorologist swore that 99L would be a tropical storm by today. Obviously not.
Quoting 7. ElConando:



South Florida was completely back to normal about 12 hours after the storm had passed. Some of my friends in Central and Northern Florida took a day or two to get back to normal. I did have a one friend whose family lost power for 6 days in St. Augustine area due to a downed power line, but that was about the worst I heard. SC and NC did not get off that easy.

We never had any issues here in Boca Raton during Hurricane Matthew. Nothing, nada, zippo.
Quoting 9. pingon:



Based on Wiki
The Tampa 1921 Hurricane formed on Oct. 20
Hurricane Wilma formed on Oct. 16th

So tomorrow will be the date of the latest forming major hurricane (Tampa 1921 which formed on Oct. 20th) to strike the U.S.

The hurricane season "could" be over for the U.S., but we will most likely see a couple more named storms. I just don't think they will threaten the U.S.
Quoting 19. Sfloridacat5:



Based on Wiki
The Tampa 1921 Hurricane formed on Oct. 20
Hurricane Wilma formed on Oct. 16th

So tomorrow will be the date of the latest forming major hurricane (Tampa 1921 which formed on Oct. 20th) to strike the U.S.

The hurricane season "could" be over for the U.S., but we will most likely see a couple more named storms. I just don't think they will threaten the U.S.



But we did have a Cat 2 in 1935 & 1985. hit Florida. There was another one in 1647, but I was really too young to remember much.
Quoting 19. Sfloridacat5:



Based on Wiki
The Tampa 1921 Hurricane formed on Oct. 20
Hurricane Wilma formed on Oct. 16th

So tomorrow will be the date of the latest forming major hurricane (Tampa 1921 which formed on Oct. 20th) to strike the U.S.

The hurricane season "could" be over for the U.S., but we will most likely see a couple more named storms. I just don't think they will threaten the U.S.

Well, we had Michelle through here in Nov 2001, so SW Car is certainly not out of danger .... we'll see what happens.

Quoting 19. Sfloridacat5:



Based on Wiki
The Tampa 1921 Hurricane formed on Oct. 20
Hurricane Wilma formed on Oct. 16th

So tomorrow will be the date of the latest forming major hurricane (Tampa 1921 which formed on Oct. 20th) to strike the U.S.

The hurricane season "could" be over for the U.S., but we will most likely see a couple more named storms. I just don't think they will threaten the U.S.




That is only major hurricanes. Let's not confuse the information about major hurricanes and overall activity. Just because this is true for major hurricanes does not mean that there can't be other landfalling storms.
Quoting 17. JoeBarnickel:

Our local news station WPBF in the Palm Beaches, the meteorologist swore that 99L would be a tropical storm by today. Obviously not.


The meteorologist should have consulted with this blog. Maybe he/she will know better next time. 8-)
that wave in the eastern atlantic is taken on a resemblance of the disturbance that spawn TOMAS in 2010.
Although no model support at the moment, it is a a an area that needs to be watched as it tracks westward towards the lesser antilles.
25. IDTH
Quoting 20. Grothar:



But we did have a Cat 2 in 1935 & 1985. hit Florida. There was another one in 1647, but I was really too young to remember much.

lol Gro.
Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST October 20 2016
=======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Overland Luzon - Cagayan
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haima (940 hPa) located at 17.7N 121.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 20.1N 116.5E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea
48 HRS: 24.1N 114.1E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland South China
72 HRS: 28.5N 117.2E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Is anyone else getting 403 forbidden when accessing NHC?
Quoting 27. 62901IL:

Is anyone else getting 403 forbidden when accessing NHC?

So its not my work blocking me again?
you looking for this?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased and become less organized since yesterday, environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for the low to acquire some tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, then turn north-northeastward on Friday, and merge with a cold front over the western Atlantic by the weekend. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Quoting 27. 62901IL:

Is anyone else getting 403 forbidden when accessing NHC?

Not having any problem; using Google Chrome.
Quoting 22. Hurricanes101:





That is only major hurricanes. Let's not confuse the information about major hurricanes and overall activity. Just because this is true for major hurricanes does not mean that there can't be other landfalling storms.


Yes, that is very true. But it shows the environment necessary to support tropical activity is decreasing.
We've got a strong high pressure building in across the eastern U.S. this weekend. That will protect the U.S. in the near term.
I still think we'll see at least two more named storms but I believe they will not affect the U.S.

But with weather almost anything is possible.


Quoting 18. JoeBarnickel:


We never had any issues here in Boca Raton during Hurricane Matthew. Nothing, nada, zippo.


Lucky for Florida that ridge wasn't that strong as the models had predicted. If the GFS and Euro had verified from one day out from Florida, Boca and all points North would have received hurricane force winds as the storm was projected to landfall anywhere from Ft. Pierce to Daytona Beach.
We had very bad street flooding again from the King Tide in Fort Lauderdale. Some streets still closed.
Watch the SW Caribbean at the end of the month.
:

Typhoon Haimi

I think you meant Haima, Doc.
Quoting 33. Grothar:

We had very bad street flooding again from the King Tide in Fort Lauderdale. Some streets still closed.

Seas Are Now So High it Only Takes a King Tide to Flood the US East Coast
South Florida was completely back to normal about 12 hours after the storm had passed.

Yep, and the bullet zoomed right past, them and hit North Carolina in the forehead.

Which brings me to my hobby horse, the costs. Take this headline from UPI :

Hurricane Matthew damage estimated at $1.5B in North Carolina

That's just a rough number of buildings damaged, UPI has done a real disservice to it's readers here. There are 3 small towns still under water . The water will take another week to finally go down. In that number there are no costs for roads, sewer & water lines, power lines, dead chickens, household goods, vehicles of every kind, .................. dead pigs, dead crops, etc, etc, etc. Plus this storm hit the the heart of farming in North Carolina, so the soil took a hit.

This was a one in a thousand year event, what is interesting . 12 months ago South Carolina had a one in a thousand year event.

So South Florida, did you hear the bullet go by your head ?

# 27. 62901IL, 7:42 PM GMT on October 19, 2016

"Is anyone else getting 403 forbidden when accessing NHC?"

NHC working fine for me at the moment. That said, I did get the '403 forbidden' problem with all NOAA satellite imagery a few days ago, and indeed the whole NOAA site; lasted all morning, and I couldn't work out what was wrong. Then it cleared up without warning and has been okay since. Can only suggest you leave it for a while and try later.
Plus all those souls who still drive into flood waters. Their love ones tears are in the the rivers to night.
Quoting 36. EmsiNasklug:


Seas Are Now So High it Only Takes a King Tide to Flood the US East Coast


That shows you how significant little Nicole was...... or not so little........ the swells from her are still ringing through out the Atlantic.
Quoting 33. Grothar:

We had very bad street flooding again from the King Tide in Fort Lauderdale. Some streets still closed.


I heard the peak is going to be this weekend. I don't remember ever having king tides flooding anything in the late 90s when I lived in Palm Beach. Is this a more recent phenomenon in Ft Lauderdale?
Quoting 41. isothunder67:



That shows you how significant little Nicole was...... or not so little........ the swells from her are still ringing through out the Atlantic.


no, just... no. King tides occur every year, Nicole is having no effect on this one.

They're getting worse because of rising sea levels, it's clear as day, there is no other plausible cause.
newest gfs is interesting. could carib boy get a piece of it?
water almost as high as Ive ever seen it in this part of east central florida
Quoting 37. RobertWC:

South Florida was completely back to normal about 12 hours after the storm had passed.

Yep, and the bullet zoomed right past, them and hit North Carolina in the forehead.

Which brings me to my hobby horse, the costs. Take this headline from UPI :

Hurricane Matthew damage estimated at $1.5B in North Carolina

That's just a rough number of buildings damaged, UPI has done a real disservice to it's readers here. There are 3 small towns still under water . The water will take another week to finally go down. In that number there are no costs for roads, sewer & water lines, power lines, dead chickens, household goods, vehicles of every kind, .................. dead pigs, dead crops, etc, etc, etc. Plus this storm hit the the heart of farming in North Carolina, so the soil took a hit.

This was a one in a thousand year event, what is interesting . 12 months ago South Carolina had a one in a thousand year event.

So South Florida, did you hear the bullet go by your head ?

I sure did. Just watching Matthew re-intensifying in the bahamas spooked me a little bit.

One of the anchors on news6 said matthew "ran out of bullets" in reply to if we'd dodged a bullet or not, made me chuckle a bit. (this was when Matthew was a bit past jacksonville, prior to landfall in SC)
Quoting 43. pipelines:



no, just... no. King tides occur every year, Nicole is having no effect on this one.

They're getting worse because of rising sea levels, it's clear as day, there is no other plausible cause.


This was the previous NHC marine forecast.
Quoting 47. isothunder67:



This was the previous NHC marine forecast.



That's not from Nicole, looks like 99L.
50. vis0
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Warning for Missouri. Expires at 500 PM CDT
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Warning for Missouri. Expires at 515 PM CDT
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Warning for Indiana. Expires at 600 PM EDT
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Warning for Oklahoma. Expires at 500 PM CDT  
 
TORNADO Warning for Indiana. Expires at 600 PM EDT
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Warning for Missouri. Expires at 515 PM CDT
51. SLU
USER MESSAGE:
The manual Dvorak fixes issued by SAB for tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones in the Eastern and Southern Hemispheres, such as those found at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ are being considered for retirement. Specific basins affected are the West Pacific, North Indian, South Indian, South Pacific, South Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. The ADT based on forecasts issued by RSMCs in the Eastern and Southern Hemisphere is also being considered for retirement. Specifically, ADT output found on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html under the headers for New Delhi, Tokyo, La Reunion, Australia and Nadi would no longer be produced. All other ADT output would continue to be available to users, including ADT output based on JTWC forecasts in the affected areas. Interested parties may address their comments and concerns regarding this proposed retirement to Michael.Turk@noaa.gov through November 18, 2016.
Quoting 49. pipelines:



That's not from Nicole, looks like 99L.


You missed the entire outline of yellow labelled 8-11ft swells and the box mentioning "long period of northernly swells will impact much of the Atlantic waters". But I guess 99L is also aiding in those swells. :P. And you are right on the rising sea levels.
Quoting 34. bigwes6844:

Watch the SW Caribbean at the end of the month.



Yes, but E of the Lesser Antilles is even better xD

Hopefully this is an indication of a much wetter pattern :)
I know it's almost late October, but I think we have to watch the wave in the eastern Atlantic. Most models except the EURO develop it when it gets into the northern part of the MDR, and SAL isn't all that bad right now. The wave looks pretty healthy and it already has winds up to 35 mph according to ASCAT.
55. SLU
Quoting 53. CaribBoy:



Yes, but E of the Lesser Antilles is even better xD

Hopefully this is an indication of a much wetter pattern :)


Quoting 55. SLU:





I think we may see some late developments in the Caribbean this year in November.
Quoting 55. SLU:






Due to the lack of organized convections or systems, most of the Leewards including Guadeloupe are much drier than normal this month. We only got 15mm of rain since oct 1st... and some places in Guadeloupe are nearly as low !! Incredible after a rather wet september.
58. SLU
Quoting 56. HurricaneFan:


I think we may see some late developments in the Caribbean this year in November.


Yes there's still a lot of energy left after Matthew.
Quoting 35. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


I think you meant Haima, Doc.


Indeed I did. Fixed now. Thanks for the catch!
The dry air trailing Matthew and the shear south of long lived Nicole could explain the lack of rain here. They created a very bad set up for organized convections to develop and stay intact (Nicole killed all waves trying to reach the Lesser Antilles). Depressing.


Wow lol.

Hopefully another 99 Jose xD
62. SLU
Quoting 57. CaribBoy:



Due to the lack of organized convections or systems, most of the Leewards including Guadeloupe are much drier than normal this month. We only got 15mm of rain since oct 1st... and some places in Guadeloupe are nearly as low !! Incredible after a rather wet september.


This is very strange. We've been out of the drought since March and it is mainly due to weather systems passing through the area and not localised rainfall so it is shocking that they are not passing by you.
Quoting 57. CaribBoy:



Due to the lack of organized convections or systems, most of the Leewards including Guadeloupe are much drier than normal this month. We only got 15mm of rain since oct 1st... and some places in Guadeloupe are nearly as low !! Incredible after a rather wet september.


That always sucks bro. Fortunately we've been having a banner year rain wise at my loc, now standing at 54" as of today. Like you all I depend on catchment cisterns, so when it's dry it really sends me a tad cloud crazy.
Tornado Warning for Switzerland, Ohio, Dearborn Counties in Indiana and Kenton and Boone Counties in Kentucky..

NWS: SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL.
Quoting 42. pipelines:



I heard the peak is going to be this weekend. I don't remember ever having king tides flooding anything in the late 90s when I lived in Palm Beach. Is this a more recent phenomenon in Ft Lauderdale?


It's happened, but never to this level.
Quoting 60. CaribBoy:

The dry air trailing Matthew and the shear south of long lived Nicole could explain the lack of rain here. They created a very bad set up for organized convections to develop and stay intact (Nicole killed all waves trying to reach the Lesser Antilles). Depressing.


No need to get depressed over the lack of rain. Sometimes it rains a lot, sometimes it doesn't. Anyone here who knows me knows I love rain and active weather, but when we go through dry periods here, there's no since letting it keep me down when I can't do anything about it.

Last Saturday was the only rainfall I've had here all month, with 0.42 total. that's all we've had since September 22. It is what it is...
Quoting 27. 62901IL:

Is anyone else getting 403 forbidden when accessing NHC?


It is all good now.
Time to take down the 2nd level shutters Gro?
Quoting 62. SLU:



This is very strange. We've been out of the drought since March and it is mainly due to weather systems passing through the area and not localised rainfall so it is shocking that they are not passing by you.


Indeed, we experienced very few waves this year. 97L (july 31), 99L (aug 24) and 92L (Sept 6) were the most significant. Rainfalls have been mosty isolated in nature this year. Interestingly, september brought numerous localized and slow moving showers, hence the strong monthly total. But the trend reversed after Matthew :(
We been getting good rains here in St.thomas and most of the VI sorry Cariboy
Quoting 7. ElConando:



South Florida was completely back to normal about 12 hours after the storm had passed. Some of my friends in Central and Northern Florida took a day or two to get back to normal. I did have a one friend whose family lost power for 6 days in St. Augustine area due to a downed power line, but that was about the worst I heard. SC and NC did not get off that easy.


The damage in NE FL was more than you are making it sound. Wind damage in FL wasn't major, peak winds of 75-90 mph and 1 area of brief winds over 100 mph at Cape Canaveral caused mostly damage to trees power lines, and mostly minor structural damage.

However, in total, 12 people in Florida died, 2nd most to 26 in NC followed by 4 in SC and a total of 46 in the US. Considering that 1.5 billion was the total damage in NC and 5.5-7.5 billion is the damage estimate to the U.S., it's safe to say FL contributed a good bit to that. Also the fact that large areas of Daytona Beach, St. Augustine, and Jacksonville Beach had properties inundated in surge, it's safe to say it was still pretty bad in FL too. The worst impacts to NC was rainfall flooding, which wasn't an issue in Florida.
The main impacts to FL was storm surge.

Given the widespread surge damage and 12 deaths, I'd say FL got just a tad bit more damage than "I did have a one friend whose family lost power for 6 days in St. Augustine area due to a downed power line, but that was about the worst I heard." which makes it sound like little to no damage or deaths were observed.

Not trying to make a joke of your post, I just think it portrayed the damage situation in FL inaccurately.
Possibly another potential storm near the Bahamas near the end of the month.
73. SLU
Quoting 69. CaribBoy:



Indeed, we experienced very few waves this year. 97L (july 31), 99L (aug 24) and 92L (Sept 6) were the most significant. Rainfalls have been mosty isolated in nature this year. Interestingly, september brought numerous localized and slow moving showers, hence the strong monthly total. But the trend reversed after Matthew :(


Ironically, we had very weak and non-performing waves this year. Matthew was the only 'storm' we had all year.
74. SLU
75. SLU
Where is 99L supposed to develop?

Quoting 68. ProgressivePulse:

Time to take down the 2nd level shutters Gro?


I know what Mrs. G will doing this weekend.
I have a gut feeling the official hurricane season will end November 30th this year.
Quoting 79. Grothar:



We could use some rain here in Trinidad. Bring it on !
It's been a very dry, hot rainy season.
Quoting 80. Grothar:

I have a gut feeling the official hurricane season will end November 30th this year.


Oh wise one, what would we do without you?
Quoting 79. Grothar:




I've been keeping an eye on that mass for the pass few days. Visible satellite shows a low level spin around 10N and 40W, and nullschool also indicates it.
Quoting 79. Grothar:



That looks more like a wave you would see on August 19, not October 19.
Quoting 65. Grothar:



It's happened, but never to this level.


I've lived in Miami-Dade county, formerly Metro Dade County, formerly Dade County, as an adult for over forty years, and I can assure everyone that King tide season has never been as bad as it has become in recent years. Physics is simple and unforgiving. Add more water and the ocean expands. Add more heat and the ocean expands. Unless the oceanic crust happens to coincidentally sink, the surface level of the ocean rises, and A1A and the bay side of Miami Beach flood more each year. The city of Miami Beach has invested millions in pumps that force the result -- seawater polluted by everything imaginable -- back into Biscayne Bay, with predictable consequences for the marine life in the northern half of the bay. There is no long term fix; the ocean will continue to rise, and because all of south Florida sits on oolite limestone, it will in due course gradually render the southern peninsula uninhabitable for lack of fresh water even when there are still areas of dry land.

South Florida is still a real estate based economy; it has been since even before the cocaine boom of the early 1980s fueled the first great building spree (remember the Mutiny?). At some point, the financing will dry up as lenders recognize that long term loans secured by land likely to be underwater before the loan matures make little sense. Foreign billionaires looking to park money in luxury U.S. condos will begin to go elsewhere, and the cash sale high end condo market will collapse. The only question is when, and for anyone good at predicting the answer, there's a fortune still to be made. Until then, we can worry about hurricanes, but as a south Dade Andrew veteran, I assure you they are only a trivial threat to our future down here compared to anthropic global warming. I'm too old to live that long, but my children and grandchildren will, and I fear for their future.
Quoting 55. SLU:




Not liking that wet setup for the NW Bahamas.... We need to dry out!
Quoting 82. ProgressivePulse:



Oh wise one, what would we do without you?


The usual; fight, argue and insult each other :)

(Click to enlarge.) Current pic of Haima, with the eye leaving the Philippines.
Here is the high resolution loop.

With daylight James Reynolds is up on twitter, too.
Quoting 85. Proflaw:



I've lived in Miami-Dade county, formerly Metro Dade County, formerly Dade County, as an adult for over forty years, and I can assure everyone that King tide season has never been as bad as it has become in recent years. Physics is simple and unforgiving. Add more water and the ocean expands. Add more heat and the ocean expands. Unless the oceanic crust happens to coincidentally sink, the surface level of the ocean rises, and A1A and the bay side of Miami Beach flood more each year. The city of Miami Beach has invested millions in pumps that force the result -- seawater polluted by everything imaginable -- back into Biscayne Bay, with predictable consequences for the marine life in the northern half of the bay. There is no long term fix; the ocean will continue to rise, and because all of south Florida sits on oolite limestone, it will in due course gradually render the southern peninsula uninhabitable for lack of fresh water even when there are still areas of dry land.

South Florida is still a real estate based economy; it has been since even before the cocaine boom of the early 1980s fueled the first great building spree (remember the Mutiny?). At some point, the financing will dry up as lenders recognize that long term loans secured by land likely to be underwater before the loan matures make little sense. Foreign billionaires looking to park money in luxury U.S. condos will begin to go elsewhere, and the cash sale high end condo market will collapse. The only question is when, and for anyone good at predicting the answer, there's a fortune still to be made. Until then, we can worry about hurricanes, but as a south Dade Andrew veteran, I assure you they are only a trivial threat to our future down here compared to anthropic global warming. I'm too old to live that long, but my children and grandchildren will, and I fear for their future.


Broward County has been developing plans to deal with this very situation on King Tides. They now realize it as a serious and continuous problem. It does get worse each year. In one of the research papers done, a scenario was given if the king tide occurs at the same time as a 10 - 12 inch rainfall, the flooding would be measured in feet.

Link
Potential Otto's chanches are diminishing.
I have to admit that I have always been fascinated with disaster shows. Which reminds me that we have to watch the debates tonight. Catch you all later.

Remember my dear little Moma's expression, "A peacock today; a feather duster tomorrow"
A few potent storms coming down the NW Pacific front, early winter in the US?



Quoting 89. Grothar:



Broward County has been developing plans to deal with this very situation on King Tides. They now realize it as a serious and continuous problem. It does get worse each year. In one of the research papers done, a scenario was given if the king tide occurs at the same time as a 10 - 12 inch rainfall, the flooding would be measured in feet.

a href="http://www.fortlauderdale.gov/departments/ci ty-manager-s-office/public-affairs-office/king-tid es" target="_blank" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.fortlauderdal e.gov/departments/city-manager-s-office/public-aff airs-office/king-tides_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true"
rel="nofollow">Link
Quoting 89. Grothar:



Broward County has been developing plans to deal with this very situation on King Tides. They now realize it as a serious and continuous problem. It does get worse each year. In one of the research papers done, a scenario was given if the king tide occurs at the same time as a 10 - 12 inch rainfall, the flooding would be measured in feet.

Link


Eventually we will have a storm like Matthew or Sandy, moving north to our east, but during King tide season. If Matthew had passed to our east this week, coastal flood damage in Florida would have been orders of magnitude greater.
Bonnie´s TCR is out if anyone wants to read it check out the NHC tropical cyclone report pages.
Beautiful forecast for West Palm Beach area...

Scientists find link between tropical storms and decline of river deltas
PhysOrg, October 19, 2016
Research by the University of Southampton shows that a change in the patterns of tropical storms is threatening the future of the Mekong River delta in Vietnam, indicating a similar risk to other deltas around the world. ...

Why has climate change been ignored in the US election debates?
While we rake over Clinton’s emails and Trump’s late-night tweets, climate has been the elephant in the room, leaving scientists and campaigners asking why there hasn’t been a single direct question about the crisis
The Guardian, Wednesday 19 October 2016 13.00 BST
Climate change has been the elephant in the room during the past two US presidential debates. Ignoring this issue would be more understandable if this metaphorical pachyderm weren’t about to rampage through the lives of Americans, causing upheaval on a scale not seen since the start of human civilization.
“I’ve been shocked at the lack of questions on climate change. It really is fiddling while the world burns,” said Kerry Emanuel, a leading climate scientist. “This is the great issue of our time and we are skirting around it. I’m just baffled by it.”
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have yet to face a moderator question on climate change during two debates in which time was found to grill Clinton repeatedly over her use of emails and to ask Trump about a series of late-night tweets he sent about a former Miss Universe’s sex tape. Lester Holt, the moderator of the first debate, was reportedly set to ask a climate question but ran out of time. ...


"Happy" TV debate watching abroad .... ;-) and a good night from the old continent.
Quoting 90. luvtogolf:

Potential Otto's chanches are diminishing.
It Otto not develop.
Quoting 96. GeoffreyWPB:

Beautiful forecast for West Palm Beach area...




You can thank Matthew for sucking up all the moisture while he drove by. Afternoon T-storms are no more post Matthew.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern Leeward Islands through Thursday.

Oh really? Lol
Quite toasty today
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather
87F at DC Reagan Natl at 2p. One degree off the record and hottest day so late in the season.
Quoting 70. rockcity340:

We been getting good rains here in St.thomas and most of the VI sorry Cariboy


Just one of those years. Sometimes we are lucky, sometimes we are not.
Quoting 73. SLU:



Ironically, we had very weak and non-performing waves this year. Matthew was the only 'storm' we had all year.


Overall easterly waves that affected the Lesser Antilles stayed south of us, but it also appears that they were weaker than normal.

Oh yes.... I know why... SAL and dry sinking air in the MDR during June- July-August? Fast forward motion? Unfavorable MJO phase?
105. SLU
Quoting 104. CaribBoy:



Overall easterly waves that affected the Lesser Antilles stayed south of us, but it also appears that they were weaker than normal.

Oh yes.... I know why... SAL and dry sinking air in the MDR during June- July-August? Fast forward motion? Unfavorable MJO phase?


All of the above. At one point it felt like 2013 again.
any one see this?

USER MESSAGE:
The manual Dvorak fixes issued by SAB for tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones in the Eastern and Southern Hemispheres, such as those found at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ are being considered for retirement. Specific basins affected are the West Pacific, North Indian, South Indian, South Pacific, South Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. The ADT based on forecasts issued by RSMCs in the Eastern and Southern Hemisphere is also being considered for retirement. Specifically, ADT output found on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html under the headers for New Delhi, Tokyo, La Reunion, Australia and Nadi would no longer be produced. All other ADT output would continue to be available to users, including ADT output based on JTWC forecasts in the affected areas. Interested parties may address their comments and concerns regarding this proposed retirement to Michael.Turk@noaa.gov through November 18, 2016
107. SLU
108. SLU
What is the chances of the mr wave developing before it leaves the atlantic?
110. MahFL
Quoting 7. ElConando:



South Florida was completely back to normal about 12 hours after the storm had passed. Some of my friends in Central and Northern Florida took a day or two to get back to normal. I did have a one friend whose family lost power for 6 days in St. Augustine area due to a downed power line, but that was about the worst I heard. SC and NC did not get off that easy.


Here in Orange Park, 22 miles inland from the beach, we lost power for 23 hours, our cable was down 2 days, but cell phone towers never went down.
Quoting 86. BahaHurican:

Not liking that wet setup for the NW Bahamas.... We need to dry out!
Very wet pattern for the Antilles
Quoting 109. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

What is the chances of the mr wave developing before it leaves the atlantic?





-25% that it wont happen
It looks like the rain season is toast in FL.
I'm so ready for some Autumn fresh air this weekend in Central Florida!!!

Pray for those affect by super typhoon Haina in the Philiphians and evenually mainland China!
Quoting 97. 999Ai2016:


Man that still looks dangerous...Next landfall could be disastrous...I accidentally flagged you when attempting to plus you...hope you will forgive my clumsy mistake...:)
Hopefully more west!!
Quoting 114. weatherbro:

I'm so ready for some Autumn fresh air this weekend in Central Florida!!!

Pray for those affect by super typhoon Haina in the Philiphians and evenually mainland China!


Same here, really looking forward to the cold front this weekend. I'm going camping in Providence Canyon in Georgia this weekend with some friends. Perfect timing!

Quoting 113. unknowncomic:

It looks like the rain season is toast in FL.



Late October through November is typically the driest time of year in Florida.
Quoting 89. Grothar:



Broward County has been developing plans to deal with this very situation on King Tides. They now realize it as a serious and continuous problem. It does get worse each year. In one of the research papers done, a scenario was given if the king tide occurs at the same time as a 10 - 12 inch rainfall, the flooding would be measured in feet.

Link


Not to get too political, but it's so ironic how Marco Rubio is one of the biggest climate change deniers in congress, yet is from one of the most prone areas to sea level rise in the U.S.
Quoting 103. CaribBoy:



Just one of those years. Sometimes we are lucky, sometimes we are not.
In Puerto Rico we had the same effects of a weak TS. with those blobs coming from the east and becoming strong in the Mona Canal. Winds up to 38 to 48 mph, in some areas , trees down, floods, thousands of people without power, most of the island affected specially the west.
Quoting 120. Jedkins01:



Not to get too political, but it's so ironic how Marco Rubio is one of the biggest climate change deniers in congress, yet is from one of the most prone areas to sea level rise in the U.S.



Oh, he believes in Climate Change. He said it changes all the time.
Quoting 122. Grothar:



Oh, he believes in Climate Change. He said it changes all the time.


Oh right I forgot about that :)
124. vis0
Quoting 77. Grothar:



I know what Mrs. G will doing this weekend.
hmm... why not wait in case there is a late "wind" storm there is still a window of opportunity.
Quoting 124. vis0:

hmm... why not wait in case there is a late "wind" storm there is still a window of opportunity.



Not to worry Vis. I am sure he means Mrs Gro will be writing a check.
AAAAHHHHHH, camping, nice!

Quoting 118. Jedkins01:



Same here, really looking forward to the cold front this weekend. I'm going camping in Providence Canyon in Georgia this weekend with some friends. Perfect timing!


Quoting 122. Grothar:



Oh, he believes in Climate Change. He said it changes all the time.


Better than Gary Johnson's response...
Quoting 100. isothunder67:



You can thank Matthew for sucking up all the moisture while he drove by. Afternoon T-storms are no more post Matthew.


I like my weather forecast better.

Quoting 115. hydrus:

Man that still looks dangerous...Next landfall could be disastrous...I accidentally flagged you when attempting to plus you...hope you will forgive my clumsy mistake...:)

If that looked dangerous at 5.30 our time when you posted it, sure looks a lot more dangerous at 8.30 am now.
There seems to be a very large eye clearing out.
I don't think there is going to be any "bullet dodging," with this one?

I'm wondering how that central valley in the Philippines coped with the rainfall last night?
Quoting 105. SLU:



All of the above. At one point it felt like 2013 again.


Yeah, hence the obviously irrational complaints here running rampant for awhile. :)
Quoting 128. Dakster:



I like my weather forecast better.



"http://gray.ftp.clickability.com/"
legit
Quoting 42. pipelines:



I heard the peak is going to be this weekend. I don't remember ever having king tides flooding anything in the late 90s when I lived in Palm Beach. Is this a more recent phenomenon in Ft Lauderdale?


This is the most recent article I remember reading on sea level rise and incidence of coastal flooding:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/floodin g-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-be gun.html?_r=0
Good morning. Didn't expect to wake up to the JTWC saying "a ragged 75 NM eye" :p

I thought it was Typhoon Sarika, not Sariki? (check 3rd paragraph of blog.)
.
Quoting 132. 999Ai2016:

"Incredible before & after photos of Tuguegarao taken by my travel partner Mark Thomas - note river, trees, roofs.." "Many trees in Tuguegarao completely stripped of their leaves - strong typhoon!" James Reynolds (Twitter link)



Super typhoon kills at least four in Philippines
AFP / Yahoo7News, Oct. 20.
(...) In Hong Kong, the city' seven million resident were preparing for more heavy rain and disruptive weather as Typhoon Haima approached, following days of monsoon downpours.
Instagram video : flash floods in Hong Kong yesterday
Tree damage with a major is phenomenal. Nassau is a naked city right now.... so many trees stripped or downed.... prayers for the East China coast....
Good morning all, BTW.
Quoting 77. Grothar:



I know what Mrs. G will doing this weekend.


Yea, telling you to take them down...LOL
142. elioe
Yet another basin becoming active.

143. elioe
Winter is gradually invading Finland. Following pic is from the road connecting Enontekiö, Finland to Alta on Norwegian coast.



At my place though, no freezing temperatures expected for next ten days.
Good Morning; missed this new research out a few weeks ago on the issue of a second potential meteor impact after the first one that caused the dinosaur extinction. The most interesting thing about the research is with regard to the impact of rising carbon levels in the atmosphere, based upon sediment cores, which essentially mirrors, even in terms of the degrees, what is presently happening on the Earth due to fossil fuel burning for energy in this modern era.  It even mentions the issue of animal species migration as well as permafrost melt which is current happening as well due to Arctic warming:


http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/10/comet-may- have-struck-earth-just-10-million-years-after-dino saur-extinction



DENVER—Some 56 million years ago, carbon surged into Earth's atmosphere, raising temperatures by 5°C to 8°C and causing huge wildlife migrations—a scenario that might mirror the world's future, thanks to global warming. But what triggered this so-called Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) has remained a mystery.

If accepted, and that's a big if, the strike could join a list of events associated with the PETM's carbon injection. Many scientists believe the spike could have come from a chain reaction of events, starting with ocean volcanism cooking organic carbon out of rocks and into the atmosphere. Rising temperatures may have then released seafloor methane or thawed permafrost, driving up temperatures further.



good/morning//...99.trying
Quoting 85. Proflaw:



I've lived in Miami-Dade county, formerly Metro Dade County, formerly Dade County, as an adult for over forty years, and I can assure everyone that King tide season has never been as bad as it has become in recent years. Physics is simple and unforgiving. Add more water and the ocean expands. Add more heat and the ocean expands. Unless the oceanic crust happens to coincidentally sink, the surface level of the ocean rises, and A1A and the bay side of Miami Beach flood more each year. The city of Miami Beach has invested millions in pumps that force the result -- seawater polluted by everything imaginable -- back into Biscayne Bay, with predictable consequences for the marine life in the northern half of the bay. There is no long term fix; the ocean will continue to rise, and because all of south Florida sits on oolite limestone, it will in due course gradually render the southern peninsula uninhabitable for lack of fresh water even when there are still areas of dry land.

South Florida is still a real estate based economy; it has been since even before the cocaine boom of the early 1980s fueled the first great building spree (remember the Mutiny?). At some point, the financing will dry up as lenders recognize that long term loans secured by land likely to be underwater before the loan matures make little sense. Foreign billionaires looking to park money in luxury U.S. condos will begin to go elsewhere, and the cash sale high end condo market will collapse. The only question is when, and for anyone good at predicting the answer, there's a fortune still to be made. Until then, we can worry about hurricanes, but as a south Dade Andrew veteran, I assure you they are only a trivial threat to our future down here compared to anthropic global warming. I'm too old to live that long, but my children and grandchildren will, and I fear for their future.
Quoting 89. Grothar:



Broward County has been developing plans to deal with this very situation on King Tides. They now realize it as a serious and continuous problem. It does get worse each year. In one of the research papers done, a scenario was given if the king tide occurs at the same time as a 10 - 12 inch rainfall, the flooding would be measured in feet.

Link
Seems like more of a problem for the Barrier Islands of North Dade and Broward counties, then Southern Biscayne Bay. The so called King Tides down here have pretty much been normal for the last 40 or so years where my parents lived , and I now live. Good luck with any water intrusion, as salt water is a real pain to deal with.
147. ariot
Quoting 129. PlazaRed:


If that looked dangerous at 5.30 our time when you posted it, sure looks a lot more dangerous at 8.30 am now.
There seems to be a very large eye clearing out.
I don't think there is going to be any "bullet dodging," with this one?

I'm wondering how that central valley in the Philippines coped with the rainfall last night?


Here are some pictures. (INQUIRER.net / 05:34 PM October 20, 2016)

Authorities say seven deaths so far, but some remote villages may not be fully able to report in yet.

Lots of people evacuated in Cagayan, Illocos Norte, Isabella.

We hear of a pretty big landslide in Illocos....

In the CAR, most people don't have power. Instead of rain being the big problem up in the mountains (like most typhoons) it seems this storm had a stronger wind field and perhaps dropped lower totals on the slopes -- too early to tell really.

This appears to be an example of good storm prep so far, getting the most at-risk people out of the way.

I have not seen or heard any reports of major floods... not yet anyway -- but flood warnings went out Oct. 16 and remained up for this storm. The Pinacanawanan River in Cagayan was out of its banks during Karen, the storm before Lawin.
Quoting 127. Dakster:



Better than Gary Johnson's response...

That's FLA talk ... dunno that guy, but Rubio is bad enough.
For outsiders like me, this one sums it up nicely:
Marco Rubio Once Again Denies Climate Change as Florida's King Tides Inundate Streets
I have to wonder, the Republicans that live in South Florida that witness the king tide flooding on an annual basis. How do they rationalize the obviously increasing intensity of the king tide events? Aliens?
Quoting 129. PlazaRed:


If that looked dangerous at 5.30 our time when you posted it, sure looks a lot more dangerous at 8.30 am now.
There seems to be a very large eye clearing out.
I don't think there is going to be any "bullet dodging," with this one?

I'm wondering how that central valley in the Philippines coped with the rainfall last night?


When storms develop eyes this large they aren't able to get that strong in terms of maximum wind speed, cat 2 potential maximum with Haima right now I would guess. They make up for it with their huge windfield though.
2nd day in a row where all the central alabama monitoring stations broke their daily maximum record temps, 91 in Birmingham yesterday, latest 90+ temp reading on record.
Quoting 103. CaribBoy:



Just one of those years. Sometimes we are lucky, sometimes we are not.


So true that some get lucky not to get hit by hurricanes such as Matthew.
Quoting 129. PlazaRed:


If that looked dangerous at 5.30 our time when you posted it, sure looks a lot more dangerous at 8.30 am now.
There seems to be a very large eye clearing out.
I don't think there is going to be any "bullet dodging," with this one?

I'm wondering how that central valley in the Philippines coped with the rainfall last night?
No dodging bullets. someone will get hit....Still early to find out what and how bad Philippines are coping.
Quoting 128. Dakster:



I like my weather forecast better.



That would be a January week in Washington D.C.
I'm actually loving the sunshine and lower humidity and highs in the 80s down here in SW Florida.
But I do miss the afternoon boomers a little. Always enjoy a good thunderstorm.
Weather roller coaster here in Mid TN..This has been the norm for the past 10 years..Changes in the weather patterns are having a big effect here..

BNA exceeded all expectations yesterday, registering a high that
was four degrees higher than that of the previous day (despite
only a modest increase in low level thickness of some 4 to 6
meters), topping out at 91 degrees! That high temperature set not
only a record for the date, but is also the latest in the season
that Nashville has seen a 90-degree temperature since record-
keeping began in 1871. The previous record for the latest
90-degree reading was October 10, set back in 1980.

However, some big weather changes are now in the offing, and set
to bring our temperatures down to more seasonable levels.
Kind of off topic question here:

I've been lurking for a long time (didn't realize how long until I looked at my profile haha) and someone posted the Himawari-8 satellite images. Somehow I've never seen these before and they're amazing. Is there anything like this for this side of the world? I can't seem to find it if there is.

Thanks guys!
duplicate post
Quoting 34. bigwes6844:

Watch the SW Caribbean at the end of the month.



Yes indeed
Let's see if this plays out
holey moley

Quoting 132. 999Ai2016:

"Incredible before & after photos of Tuguegarao taken by my travel partner Mark Thomas - note river, trees, roofs.." "Many trees in Tuguegarao completely stripped of their leaves - strong typhoon!" James Reynolds (Twitter link)



Super typhoon kills at least four in Philippines
AFP / Yahoo7News, Oct. 20.
(...) In Hong Kong, the city' seven million resident were preparing for more heavy rain and disruptive weather as Typhoon Haima approached, following days of monsoon downpours.
Instagram video : flash floods in Hong Kong yesterday
MLC trying to get going?

Link Bahamas Visual
A Deep derp watch is now posted.
Marco Rubio Won’t Discuss Climate Change At Florida Senate Debate
Rubio continues to deny the effects of climate change in his home state.
10/17/2016 10:02 pm ET | Updated 2 days ago



Marina Fang
Associate Politics Editor

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on Monday refused to acknowledge the effects of climate change on his home state, bolstering his denial of climate change by arguing that policies to curb emissions are bad for the economy.

South Florida, including Rubio’s hometown of Miami, is already threatened by rising ocean waters caused by climate change. But at a Senate debate with his re-election challenger, the incumbent again doubted the existence of climate change.

“I am 100 percent in favor of mitigation, if in fact sea levels are rising,” Rubio said. He argued that policies to reduce carbon emissions are economically inefficient.


ASSOCIATED PRESS
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) continued to deny the effects of climate change at a Florida Senate debate on Monday.
“That’s not the approach I want to take,” he continued. “Here’s the better approach. Number one, mitigation. Number two, I do want this nation to have an all-of-the-above energy strategy. That includes wind and solar and biofuels and renewables. I just think it’s frankly irresponsible not to also say we’re going to fully utilize natural gas and oil and nuclear energy. And, yes, clean coal technology has a place in it as well. We should have the broadest, most diverse energy subset possible.”

Rubio’s history of climate change denial has been a key line of attack for his opponent, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.). Murphy responded to Rubio’s debate comments by citing the senator’s previous argument that he doesn’t believe in climate change because he is “not a scientist.”

“Sen. Rubio said that he’s not a scientist,” Murphy said. “Senator, you don’t need to be a scientist. Look out your window, right? There’s two or three inches of saltwater on the roads right now. They were not built underwater. Go down to the Florida Keys. The reefs are dying from acidification and bleaching. Everywhere I go in Florida, I see the effects of this. Sen. Rubio denies science.”

Rubio, who lost his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, has angered both Democratic and GOP lawmakers in his state with his climate change denial. At a Republican presidential debate earlier this year, he dismissed the concerns of Tomás Regalado, the Republican mayor of Miami.

“Sure the climate is changing, and one of the reasons is because the climate has always been changing,” Rubio said. “There has never been a time when the climate was not changing.” He shrugged off the problem of rising seawater as “whatever is happening.”


The moderator of Monday’s debate, Jonathan Karl of ABC News, challenged Rubio on his poor attendance record in the Senate and asked if he would serve out his full term if re-elected.

“I’m going to serve six years in the United States Senate, God willing, and I’m looking forward to it,” Rubio said.

When pressed by Karl, he repeated the same answer.

“I’m going to serve six years, God willing.”

Rubio, who has endorsed Donald Trump and at the same time distanced himself from the GOP nominee, denounced Trump’s false claims that the election is “rigged.”

“This election is not being rigged,” Rubio said. Trump, he said, “should stop saying that.”

What I find amazing there is the blunt refusal of urgent political action just because the GW theory doesn't fit the Rep's agenda. The Congress doesn't process aid money even facing hard and costly evidence. That's actually reckless negligence of the constitutional duty to protect the land and people - and it's the voter's madness to let them get away with it.
Even if it's not of my business as a foreigner - the USA still set the tone globally.
When the results of the poll on who won the hurricane count this year is released, I will not accept the results unless I win.
Quoting 163. westernmob:



Fixed it for you


Corrected your errors in editing.

Quoting 120. Jedkins01:

Not to get too political, but it's so ironic how Marco Rubio is one of the biggest climate change deniers in congress, yet is from one of the most prone areas to sea level rise in the U.S.
Quoting 167. Grothar:

When the results of the poll on who won the hurricane count this year is released, I will not accept the results unless I win.
So be it, but the Grothar National Convention will.
Quoting 167. Grothar:

When the results of the poll on who won the hurricane count this year is released, I will not accept the results unless I win.


The conditions in the Atlantic were rigged, the forecasts were rigged, and reported wind speeds were rigged.
I'll look at things when the final reports are issued. Until then, I'm gonna keep you in suspense . . .
Miss Piggy on her way to the semi-neked swirl in the Bahamas.

URNT15 KWBC 201602
NOAA3 01GGA INVEST HDOB 04 20161020
Frightening :)

Probably should be higher than 50%. Just sayin'.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An elongated non-tropical 1005 mb surface low is centered northeast
of the central Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered moderate convection
and isolated tstms are from 20N to 30N between 56W and 76W.
Showers associated with this low are also affecting Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for the low to acquire some
tropical characteristics during the next day or so, and this
system could still become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before
it merges with a cold front over the western Atlantic late Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern Leeward
Islands through today. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico
Friday night associated with a cold front that will enter the NW
waters of the Gulf early Friday morning. NW to N gale force winds
are forecast for the area S of 25N W of the front with seas to 10
ft. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
15N with axis near 39W, moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave continues in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear. However, CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show the
wave is in an abundant moist environment that along with divergent
upper level wind flow support scattered moderate convection from
01N to 15N between 31W and 45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 09N25W to 09N41W. The ITCZ begins near
09N41W and continues to 07N50W to 07N57W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave, scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 08N between 20W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across the SE CONUS extends SW into the Gulf,
thus providing E-SE gentle to moderate flow basin-wide, except for
the Bay of Campeche where winds are from the NE. Middle to upper
level ridging and strong dry air subsidence persist across the
basin supporting stable and fair weather conditions. The current
wind regime will persist through this afternoon, then NE wind
flow will dominate ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW
Gulf waters early Friday morning. The front is expected to reach S
Florida Saturday near sunrise. Gale force winds are expected to
develop W of the front S of 25N Friday night. See special features
section for further details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated area of low pressure in the SW N Atlantic waters
centered northeast of the central Bahamas, and upper divergence
generated by the upper trough that support the low and a ridge to
the east over the central Atlantic continue to support scattered
showers and tstms across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Isolated
showers are across Puerto Rico. In the central basin, surface
observations indicate the presence of a surface trough that
extends from 18N74W to Panama near 09N78W with scattered showers
within 120 nm either side of its axis. The low in the special
features section continue to support gentle to moderate SE wind E
of 71W and NE flow of the same magnitude W of 77W. Showers will
cease for Puerto Rico Friday and will continue across Hispaniola
through the weekend. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop
in the central basin today and will persist through Saturday. A
cold front will reach the NW basin Saturday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

An elongated area of low pressure centered northeast of the
central Bahamas and upper divergence continue to support
scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Showers
associated with this low will continue across Hispaniola through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature of interest in the basin is an area of low
pressure centered northeast of the central Bahamas, which is
generating scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms from
20N to 30N between 56W and 76W. There is a medium chance for this
area of low pressure to become a cyclone. See special features
for further details. Fresh to near gale force winds are in the SW
N Atlantic waters associated with this low. Please see the High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave in
the central Atlantic. See the tropical waves section for further
details. Also in the central Atlantic, the remnants of a
stationary front are analyzed as a surface trough extending from
31N36W to 24N48W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of
the trough axis N of 25N. The remainder basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge. The area of low pressure NE of the
Bahamas will move NW today and will weaken into a surface trough
Friday ahead of a cold front that will come off the NE Florida
Peninsula Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS

Quoting 164. Patrap:

A Deep derp watch is now posted.

Indeed...I never thought I would live see what happened 2004-2005 tropically speaking..I never thought I would live to see a presidential election like the one were having now....Disgusted is an understatement..
Quoting 114. weatherbro:

I'm so ready for some Autumn fresh air this weekend in Central Florida!!!

Pray for those affect by super typhoon Haina in the Philiphians and evenually mainland China!


Yep. Time for the license plate colors to change ...
This is not a comments section to a YouTube political opinion vid. This is a weather blog. Have fun with your discussion, but I for one, care not of your opinions and it'd be nice of you not to share them. How about we stay on topic. Please?



Thankkks!

Was warm here this morning. Low was 69.5, going to be toasty today.
Best Wishes to the people in the path of this Typhoon...
Congrats, Nicole!
You've made it to Greenland! (12 hours ago or so, apparently.)
Cyclogenesis is definitely imminent in the Atlantic basin at present... hopefully this season will not be a drawn out one like some of the years past, and certainly nothing of the likes of 2005, I hope & pray.

Prayers and best wishes to those currently being impacted in Asia, East Pacific.
Blessings!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Recruitment office's are open this hour, for those who want to serve.

Semper Fi'


Quoting 184. marknmelb:



Yep. Time for the license plate colors to change ...

How true, I'm so going to use that one. I have relocated to Wyomissing, PA for a while and now I never want to go back to FL. It is beautiful here and it feels so good not to be hot all the time. Colors are almost "near peak", some strips of forest are peak and some are still mainly green. Could have done without the 85F heat the last couple days, but it is cooling back down. Bring on winter.
Quoting 150. pipelines:

I have to wonder, the Republicans that live in South Florida that witness the king tide flooding on an annual basis. How do they rationalize the obviously increasing intensity of the king tide events? Aliens?


.25 inches in the last 50 years is kingtide?