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Global Temperature Just Short of Record in September, Says NOAA

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 10:25 PM GMT on October 18, 2016

September 2016 was Earth's second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Tuesday. In the NOAA database, September 2016 came in 0.89°C (1.66°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for September, and just 0.04°C shy of the record set in September 2015. NASA reported the warmest September in its database, with September 2016 a mere 0.01°C above the previous record, set in September 2014.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average by region for September 2016, which fell just short of September 2015 in NOAA’s database as the warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Large swaths of much-warmer-than-average conditions could be found across the Americas, Africa, Eurasia, and adjacent oceans, with pockets of record warmth scattered across the globe. Image credit: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

A year-plus streak of global records draws to an end
September 2016 marked the end of a remarkable streak of 16 consecutive months in which NOAA’s global monthly temperature record was broken, the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. Ocean-only temperatures this September were 0.04°C (0.07°F) cooler than the record warmth of September 2015, while land-only temperatures were 0.11°C (0.20°F) above the previous land-only record from September 2015. (Since most of Earth’s surface is covered by ocean, the land-plus-ocean reading is dominated by the ocean-only temperatures, thus keeping September 2016 just short of the land-plus-ocean record) For the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere, global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2016 were tied for warmest with 1998 for any September in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

With the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event having ended early in 2016, the impressive global warmth in recent months can mostly be attributed to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-September 2016) is an eye-opening 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th-century average and 0.08°C (0.14°F) warmer than the previous January-to-September record, set in 2015 (see Figure 2 below).

Temperatures would have to plummet at an almost unthinkable pace between now and December in order to keep 2016 from becoming the warmest year in global record-keeping. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, has maintained for months that there is a better-than-99 percent chance of 2016 ending up as Earth’s third consecutive hottest year on record. On October 17, Schmidt concluded that a new annual record for 2016 now “seems locked in.”

As the end of the year approaches, it will be difficult for temperatures to top the monthly records set in late 2015 and early 2016. At the same time, even a modest dip in global temperatures would still keep readings close to the record pace of 2015-16, and above all or nearly all other years in the 136-year database.


Figure 2. Departure from the 20th-century average for the global January-through-September temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

NOAA expects a La Niña event this fall, but probably a weak one
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 monitoring region of the eastern Pacific have been near or beyond the threshold for a weak La Niña since mid-July, but the atmospheric conditions that normally accompany La Niña have been slower to evolve. In September, NOAA dropped the La Niña Watch that was in place for several months, but reinstated it on October 13, thanks to a pronounced cooling of SSTs in late September and early October that caused the atmosphere to begin responding in a La Niña-like fashion. According to the October ENSO forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are now favored to exist during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall (70% chance), and persist through the winter (55% chance.)

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology retained its La Niña watch in its biweekly update on October 11, saying “the majority of international climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain at ENSO neutral levels through to the end of the 2016–17 summer. Two of the eight models suggest brief, weak La Niña levels are possible towards the end of 2016.” (Australia’s oceanic threshold for La Niña and El Niño is higher than NOAA’s: the Niño3.4 region must be at least 0.8°C warmer or cooler than average, rather than 0.5°C, though Australia doesn’t require those temperatures to persist for months as NOAA does.) The Japan Meteorological Agency has gone further; for the second straight month, their monthly update has concluded that “it is considered that La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.” The JMA uses the Niño3 region, which overlaps with the Niño3.4 region but extends further east.

Arctic sea ice hits its fifth lowest September extent on record
The rate of September sea ice gain in the Arctic was above average last month, after sea ice extent bottomed out at the second lowest yearly extent ever observed early in the month (see our post here on that event). As a result, September 2016 Arctic sea ice extent came in at the fifth lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The minimum extent for the year, set on September 10, tied with the minimum set in 2007 for the second-lowest on record. The Arctic’s sea ice has grown so slowly in recent days that the extent on October 18 was in a virtual tie with 2007 and 2012.

One billion-dollar weather disaster in September 2016: Typhoon Meranti
According to the September 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, one billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the planet in September: Typhoon Meranti, which killed 44 people in China, Taiwan and the Philippines on September 13 - 16 and did $2.4 billion in damage. Two other tropical cyclones in September fell just short of being billion-dollar disasters: Hurricane Hermine in the U.S. ($800 million in damage) and Typhoon Megi, which hit Taiwan at Category 3 strength and China at Category 1 strength, doing $940 million in damage.

Additionally, a severe weather outbreak in the U.S. Plains, Midwest and Mississippi Valley on May 7 - 10 and a flood disaster April 15 - 19 in the U.S. Plains/Rockies accumulated enough damage claims to be rated billion-dollar disasters by the end of September. Between January - September 2016, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters globally. This is the fifth greatest number of such disasters since 1990, with only 2013 (41), 2010 (40), 2011 (35) and 2014 (29) with more.

For the U.S., Aon Benfield and NOAA counted twelve billion-dollar weather disasters during January - September 2016, which is the second highest number of such disasters on record since 1980 (the record: sixteen in 2011.) Most interesting is that NOAA classifies four of these as inland flood events, which doubles the previous record of two inland flood events in a year. NOAA emphasizes ”This is a notable record, further highlighted by the numerous other record flooding events that have impacted the U.S. in 2016.”


Figure 3. U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, or CPI) since 1980 (colored bars, scale on the left axis) and damage done by these disasters (grey line with a shaded 95% confidence interval, scale on the right axis.) The 1980–2015 annual average is 5.2 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2011–2015) is 10.8 events (CPI-adjusted). Image credit: NOAA.

Here is Aon Benfield’s tally of billion-dollar weather disasters globally for January - September 2016:

1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Flooding, Louisiana U.S., 8/9 - 8/16, $10 - $15 Billion, 13 killed
3) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
4) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
5) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $5.0 billion, 289 killed
6) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
7) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
9) Super Typhoon Meranti, China, Taiwan, Philippines, 9/13 - 9/16, $2.4 billion, 44 killed
10) Flooding, China, 6/18 - 6/23, $2.3 billion, 68 killed
11) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
12) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.75 billion, 6 killed
13) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
14) Drought, China, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
15) Drought, Zimbabwe, 6/1 - 8/10, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
16) Flooding and Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.5 billion, 6 killed
17) Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/9, $1.5 billion, 111 killed
18) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.4 billion, 0 killed
19) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.4 billion, 44 killed
20) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
21) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.3 billion, 1 killed
22) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
23) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
24) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 7/28 - 7/29, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
25) Flooding, Texas U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
26) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Mississippi Valley U.S., 5/7 - 5/10, $1.0 billion, 2 killed
27) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed

And here are the three disasters from September 2016 in more detail:


Disaster 1. After topping out as one of Earth’s top-ten strongest tropical cyclones on record, with a central pressure of 890 mb and sustained winds of 190 mph, Super Typhoon Meranti weakened to Category 2 strength before making landfall in China’s Fujian Province on September 15. Meranti killed 42 people and did $2.3 billion in damage to China. In Tawian, two people were killed, and damage was over $70 million. Above, we see the eye of Meranti directly over the Philippines’ Itbayat Island in a moonlight image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite taken at 17:32 UTC September 13, 2016. Itbayat recorded sustained winds of 112 mph (10-minute average) and a pressure of 934 mb at 1 am local time, 32 minutes prior to this image. At the time, Meranti was a Category 5 storm with 185-mph winds and a central pressure of 890 mb. No deaths or injuries were reported on the island, but there was heavy damage.


Disaster 2. Extreme rainfall of up to 17 inches created widespread urban flooding in Houston and surrounding suburbs April 15 - 19. Over 1,000 homes and businesses were damaged, and there were more than 1,800 high water rescues. It was the most widespread flood event to affect Houston since Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Above, we see a drone image of flooding in north Houston on April 20, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer Moussifer.


Disaster 3. Tornadoes and severe storms caused widespread damage across the Plains and Central states (NE, MO, TX, OK, KS, CO, IL, KY, TN) May 7 - 10. The damage was greatest in Nebraska and Missouri. In this image, we see a rotating supercell thunderstorm with a wall cloud over Stillwater, OK, on May 9, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer gunhilda.

India’s monsoon season ends with slightly below-average rains
India, whose $5 billion drought was Earth's fourth most expensive weather-related natural disaster through September of 2016, received decent monsoon rains in 2016 after two straight years of poor rains. According to the India Meteorological Department, monsoon rains during the period June 1 - September 30, 2016 were about 3% below average. This year’s monsoon rains wreaked considerable death and damage, though. Through the end of August, monsoon floods had killed at least 510 people in India and caused at least $150 million in damage, with the Ganges River reaching the highest levels ever recorded at four locations in northern India. Additional heavy monsoon rains in India’s Telangana and Andhra Pradesh states led to catastrophic flooding during the second half of September, killing at least 28 people and causing $479 million in damage. The monsoon is now in steady retreat across India, but at a slower pace than usual.

Notable global heat and cold marks set in September 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 51.2°C (124.2°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, 4 September
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -38.6°C (-39.6°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 20 September
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Villamontes, Bolivia, 12 September
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -82.2°C (-116.0°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, 9 September
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in September 2016 (Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)
Fez Airport (Morocco) max. 45.1°C,  5 September
Ibiza Airport (Spain) max. 38.4°C,  5 September
Lugo (Spain) max. 41.6°C, 6 September
Col Major-Mt. Blanc (Italy) max. 6.3°C, 7 September; increased to  7.2°C on 29 September
Saint Laurent do Moroni (French Guiana, France) max. 38.0°C, 27 September:  New territorial record high for French Guiana
Caravelle (Martinique) max 36.1°C, 15 September

One all-time national heat record set or tied in September 2016
One nation or territory—French Guiana--set an all-time heat record in September 2016. From January through September 30, 2016, a total of 21 nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. This breaks the record of eighteen all-time heat records in 2010 for the greatest number of such records set in one year. Also, one all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of October 1:

French Guiana broke its all-time hottest record on September 27, 2016, when the mercury hit 38.0°C (100.3°F) at Saint Laurent du Moroni.

The Marshall Islands set its all-time hottest record on August 24, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.6°C (96.1°F) at Utirik Atoll.

The Cayman Islands (United Kingdom territory) tied its all-time hottest record on August 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°F) at Owen International Airport.

The British Virgin Islands [United Kingdom territory] set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F] at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport.

Iraq set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.9°C (129.0°F) at Basrah.

Iran tied its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Delhoran.

Kuwait set its all-time hottest record on July 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah.

Guernsey (United Kingdom territory) tied its all-time hottest record on July 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F) at the small island of Alderney.

Hong Kong Territory (China) tied its all-time hottest record on July 9, 2016, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

Palau tied its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 34.4°C (93.9°F) at Koror AWS.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan (elevation 950 meters.) Tai Mo Shan has a period of record going back to 1996; the coldest temperature near sea level since record keeping began at the Hong Kong Observatory in 1884 was 0°C (32°F) on January 18, 1893.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good news, but still a lot more positive temperature departures on the map than I like.
Dear Jeff & Bob, I was in the process of asking 'Keeper' a question when you updated the blog. Which to me, by your own standards is off topic, with a Cat.5 about to impact the Philippines.

It was as follows and perhaps you would like a go at addressing the question yourselves maybe?

Keeper. Could you define what a Cat.6 would be in your personal view? For me it's not just wind, but the degree of devastation from rains and storm surge also.

It's a bit like the earthquake magnitude question. It depends on the environment of the occurrence, so a Magnitude 9.0 on land in a desert area would have little consequence, But the same in the sea, within 1000 miles of a shallow coastline and/or unprotected gulf or bay which can pile up water it would kill 10,000's not because of the initial quake, but the tsunami.

I appreciate that a Cat.5 is devastating over the area affected by the highest winds. But maybe the NHC et al, should give a second rating to the non-linear impacts aside from highest wind. A Cat.5 alpha would therefore have more damage potential than a Cat.5 epsilon.

I just feel the weather media only really concentrate on winds. It is pressures that give rise to storm surge. Even WU don't show pressure on their hurricane forecast maps
I'll take a stab at UKAWatcher's question. Cat 2 has a 15 mb range, from 979 to 965 mb. Cat 3 has a 20 mb range from 945 to 964 mb. Cat 4 has a 25 mb range from 920 to 944 mb. Could give Cat 5 a 30 mb range from 890 to 919 mb, and have Cat 6 as 889 mb and lower.
Thank you for the awesome update Jeff & Bob!

This is another amazing STY Haima graphic from Scott Bachmeier

NASA Analysis Finds Warmest September on Record By Narrow Margin :
GISS director Gavin Schmidt : "We continue to stress that while monthly rankings are newsworthy, they are not nearly as important as long-term trends."

NASA Earth Observatory chart by Joshua Stevens, based on data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).
The difference in pressure produces wind, but it's the wind that produces the storm surge.

I was always told in school that the low pressure of the eye causes the ocean to bulge up and produce the storm surge. Recent studies I've read said that its actually the wind that produces the majority of the surge. The bulge produced by the lower pressure makes up a small part of the surge.

Wind pushing the water is the main cause of surge.

Factors Impacting Surge

"Storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the water being forced toward the shore by the wind."
Link
Quoting 3. UKHWatcher:


I figure a Category 6 Hurricane: 176 mph or greater sustain with gust over 200mph surge would be greater than 50 feet pressures would have to be sub 850 or lower

that's just my opinion i am sure in the future it will likely be added but we would have to see these types of storms on a more frequent occurrence for the scale too be updated in the future
comment not needed address by blog writer above
very strange warning signal levels being warned for Luzon with about 24 hours until landfall. Signal warning 2 is expect about 35-65 knot winds in 24 hours.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TYPHOON LAWIN
5:00 AM PhST October 19 2016
======================
"LAWIN" has accelerated and intensified further as it threatens northern Luzon

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lawin (HAIMA) [933 hPa] located at 16.1N 127.1E or 535 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
===============
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Cagayan including Calayan Group of Islands
Isabela
Northern Aurora
Ilocos
Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Qurino.

Signal Warning #1
===============
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
Batanes group of Islands
La Union
Tarlac
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Rest of Aurora
Zambales
Pampanga, Bulacan
Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands
Bataan
Rizal
Laguna
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Additional Information
=================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is expected to intensify further before making landfall.

It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan Area by tomorrow early morning (Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.

Possible to exit PAR on Friday early morning (Oct. 21) or tomorrow evening (Oct. 20).

Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
Quoting 3. UKHWatcher:

Dear Jeff & Bob, I was in the process of asking 'Keeper' a question when you updated the blog. Which to me, by your own standards is off topic, with a Cat.5 about to impact the Philippines.

It was as follows and perhaps you would like a go at addressing the question yourselves maybe?

Keeper. Could you define what a Cat.6 would be in your personal view? For me it's not just wind, but the degree of devastation from rains and storm surge also.

It's a bit like the earthquake magnitude question. It depends on the environment of the occurrence, so a Magnitude 9.0 on land in a desert area would have little consequence, But the same in the sea, within 1000 miles of a shallow coastline and/or unprotected gulf or bay which can pile up water it would kill 10,000's not because of the initial quake, but the tsunami.

I appreciate that a Cat.5 is devastating over the area affected by the highest winds. But maybe the NHC et al, should give a second rating to the non-linear impacts aside from highest wind. A Cat.5 alpha would therefore have more damage potential than a Cat.5 epsilon.

I just feel the weather media only really concentrate on winds. It is pressures that give rise to storm surge. Even WU don't show pressure on their hurricane forecast maps



Hi, UKHWatcher. You raise two good points!

(1) We realize that our monthly posts on U.S. and global climate sometimes fall in the midst of a major tropical cyclone or some other breaking weather event. Our philosophy is to get these monthly posts out on the same day that NOAA releases their summaries, without displacing what would have been a post on the breaking event. We're certainly watching Haima closely and will have an update on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, we fully expect that some of you will prefer to post comments on the typhoon rather than on the climate report--and that's perfectly fine.

[2] Jeff and I agree that we don't really need a Category 6 rating in order to characterize the "worst of the worst" hurricanes. At the same time, I hope we can avoid fixating on wind speed (Saffir-Simpson scale) as the main index of storm impact. Especially in the US, inland flooding and storm surge are increasingly the main threats from hurricane landfall. Matthew is just one example. The trick is to avoid confusion among multiple scales. Some local NWS offices use graphics that show the relative seriousness of each threat posed by a given hurricane, which I think is a very useful approach.
From Past Blog:

Quoting 78. Grothar:



Some long range models are still showing cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean at the end of the month. There are also possibilities that a small system might develop east of the Antilles.

In reality if something does form..could it be a Hurricane?
lol it looks like haiyan has a twin named HAIMA


the names sound all most the same
Classic typhoon/hurricane image



thanks for the update as always great info
2016 will end as the warmest year ever recorded
i have no doubt about it
Quoting 11. BobHenson:



Hi, UKHWatcher. You raise two good points!

(1) We realize that our monthly posts on U.S. and global climate sometimes fall in the midst of a major tropical cyclone or some other breaking weather event. Our philosophy is to get these monthly posts out on the same day that NOAA releases their summaries, without displacing what would have been a post on the breaking event. We're certainly watching Haima closely and will have an update on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, we fully expect that some of you will prefer to post comments on the typhoon rather than on the climate report--and that's perfectly fine.

[2] Jeff and I agree that we don't really need a Category 6 rating in order to characterize the "worst of the worst" hurricanes. At the same time, I hope we can avoid fixating on wind speed (Saffir-Simpson scale) as the main index of storm impact. Especially in the US, inland flooding and storm surge are increasingly the main threats from hurricane landfall. Matthew is just one example. The trick is to avoid confusion among multiple scales. Some local NWS offices use graphics that show the relative seriousness of each threat posed by a given hurricane, which I think is a very useful approach.


hey bob am hoping you can get back too me on this

i ask if any one was haveing issue lodeing this site

Link


it seems like it will lode for some but not for others the only thing you see is a rainbow spining around nothing seems too be lodeing its been that way for a bit now
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

The difference in pressure produces wind, but it's the wind that produces the storm surge.

I was always told in school that the low pressure of the eye causes the ocean to bulge up and produce the storm surge. Recent studies I've read said that its actually the wind that produces the majority of the surge. The bulge produced by the lower pressure makes up a small part of the surge.

Wind pushing the water is the main cause of surge.

Factors Impacting Surge

"Storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the water being forced toward the shore by the wind."
Link


Atmospheric pressure is roughly equivalent to 10 meters of water. Therefore a really strong hurricane with a central pressure reduction of 100 mbar could be expected to produce a surge of about 1 meter just from the pressure factor. However, such a storm, most likely a Cat 5, could easily generate a wind-driven surge of 5 to 8 meters.

Gene
Quoting 17. thetwilightzone:



hey bob am hoping you can get back too me on this

i ask if any one was haveing issue lodeing this site

Link


it seems like it will lode for some but not for others the only thing you see if a rainbow spining around nothing seems too be lodeing its been that way for a bit now


It will work if you change to "BestForecast"
Quoting 19. nrtiwlnvragn:



It will work if you change to "BestForecast"


then there most be a issue when you have it swich too NWS
Quoting 20. thetwilightzone:



then there most be a issue when you have it swich too NWS
they are looking into it taz apparently it works only for the best forecast but it will be fixed soon i reckon give em a couple of days i also pushed for a mail notification to be repaired as well but it takes time going over all the programming to get things the way we all would like it
Hot new blog. Thank you for gathering all those data.

Meanwhile Nicole left a cool trace in the ocean:



Hurricane Nicole’s Cold Water Wake
NASA Earth Observatory, October 19, 2016
Quoting 21. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

they are looking into it taz apparently it works only for the best forecast but it will be fixed soon i reckon give em a couple of days i also pushed for a mail notification to be repaired as well but it takes time going over all the programming to get things the way we all would like it


ok i this wanted too make sure that some one new about it
We have 8 billion people on the planet. Over 100 billion people have existed throughout history, many of them coming after the start of the Industrial Revolution.

It takes an incredible level of stupidity to not think that pumping all of those chemicals and other particulates into the air won't affect our atmosphere and, in turn, our climate.

80 degrees in Pittsburgh in late October. Yeah, that's normal.

Maybe we didn't start the fire, but we sure as hell are stoking the embers as much as we can.
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

The difference in pressure produces wind, but it's the wind that produces the storm surge.

I was always told in school that the low pressure of the eye causes the ocean to bulge up and produce the storm surge. Recent studies I've read said that its actually the wind that produces the majority of the surge. The bulge produced by the lower pressure makes up a small part of the surge.

Wind pushing the water is the main cause of surge.

Factors Impacting Surge

"Storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the water being forced toward the shore by the wind."
Link


In simple terms, a pressure at 908 raises a dome 1 metre high for the wind to wipe the top off, when the wind has done its damage, the dome rises up again as the pressure is still the same just waiting for the next wind gust. This happens about 500 times an hours with a 7 second wave interval. It is the LOW PRESSURE that causes storm surge.
Quoting 17. thetwilightzone:



hey bob am hoping you can get back too me on this

i ask if any one was haveing issue lodeing this site

Link


it seems like it will lode for some but not for others the only thing you see is a rainbow spining around nothing seems too be lodeing its been that way for a bit now


Hey TTZ(Taz), I think you put me on ignore 5 or 6 years ago and i see that we are both much more mature now. I have learned so much from this blog as i know you have too. Let's give it another chance huh?
Quoting 25. UKHWatcher:



In simple terms, a pressure at 908 raises a dome 1 metre high for the wind to wipe the top off, when the wind has done its damage, the dome rises up again as the pressure is still the same just waiting for the next wind gust. This happens about 500 times an hours with a 7 second wave interval. It is the LOW PRESSURE that causes storm surge.

Hey TTZ(Taz), I think you put me on ignore 5 or 6 years ago and i see that we are both much more mature now. I have learned so much from this blog as i know you have too. Let's give it another chance huh?




sounds good too me
Quoting 26. thetwilightzone:




sounds good too me


awwww ...sending you guys a hug. Very nice. Had a bad day so this made my evening


Haima's eyewall today, in the latest frames a double one. Hope this helps to mitigate its strength a bit.

James Reynold is currently looking for the right place in Luzon to cover landfall: Link.
Josh Morgerman has arrived in the Philippines for the same purpose: Link.
Quoting 28. barbamz:



Haima's eyewall today, in the latest frames a double one. Hope this helps to mitigate its strength a bit.

James Reynold is currently looking for the right place in Luzon to cover landfall: Link.
Josh Morgerman has arrived in the Philippines for the same purpose: Link.


Hi Barbamz. In my limited experience, hurricanes of this magnitude can have as many eyewalls as they want to have

EDIT: I think it might be the less moist (blue) air intrusion seen earlier on being mixed out. Haima is forging its own path. Some tightening of the eye, but still no Northerly component at the 2330Z satellite image. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/25W/image ry/ft_lalo-animated.gif
Global warming? Not to worry. Surfing will never die
What's up with that Blob in the Caribbean ?
Going the wrong way too.....
Just putting a hypothesis out there. Is Haima being dragged W by WWSW by interaction with the natural curvature of the Eastern Philippines and the mountains that prevail. Like hitting the brakes on the car and the nose diving?
A few small pockets of favorable conditions. Otherwise it is pretty ugly out there.



Quoting 27. justmehouston:



. Had a bad day




China's Hainan island evacuates nearly half million people as typhoon hits - EMTV / Oct. 19.
Typhoons Haima and Sarika - Reliefweb.int / Oct. 19.
25W Haima :

Himawari-9 is scheduled for launch on 1 November 2016 (JMA, Sept. 2, 2016) :
"JMA began operation of Himawari-8 on 7 July 2015 as a replacement for MTSAT-2 (also known as Himawari-7). Himawari-9 will also be launched in 2016 as a backup and successor satellite. Both satellites will be located in orbit at around 140 degrees east, and will observe the East Asia and Western Pacific regions for a period of 15 years. All imagery derived from Himawari-8/9 is and will be distributed to NMHSs via an Internet cloud service."
Looks like the season is dyeing
Quoting 31. pottery:

What's up with that Blob in the Caribbean ?
Going the wrong way too.....

not this time of year
anyway someone asked for rain
hopefully he won't ask again
Quoting 36. Icybubba:

Looks like the season is dyeing


That's what they all said in July. Never play off a season until it is officially over.
Thanks for the update Gentlemen...
Quoting 38. isothunder67:



That's what they all said in July. Never play off a season until it is officially over.
2016 11 30 23 59 59 then it ends
SUPER
25W/STY/H/C5


EWRC occurring system eye filling in with a drop too the left of the forecast track as cycle completes EWRC will cause significant re-intensification prior to landfall this is a dangerous situation threating all life and property within 100 miles either side of landfall
ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 161018180000
2016101818
23.7 291.0
24.5 291.6
100
23.8 291.1
182100
1610182100
1
WTNT21 KNGU 182100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.8N 69.0W TO 24.5N 68.4W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 68.9W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275NM NORTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30KT. ENVIROMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 24HRS WHILE THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 192100Z.//
9916101618 228N 765W 20
9916101700 225N 754W 20
9916101706 224N 745W 25
9916101712 222N 735W 25
9916101718 223N 724W 25
9916101800 225N 714W 25
9916101806 229N 705W 30
9916101812 233N 697W 30
9916101818 238N 689W 30
Could someone post the current intensity of haima?
Quoting 25. UKHWatcher:



In simple terms, a pressure at 908 raises a dome 1 metre high for the wind to wipe the top off, when the wind has done its damage, the dome rises up again as the pressure is still the same just waiting for the next wind gust. This happens about 500 times an hours with a 7 second wave interval. It is the LOW PRESSURE that causes storm surge. [...]
If that is true then the surge on the LH side of the storm (NH) would be the same as the RH side, which it is not. This is not a chicken and egg conundrum. It is the wind and the fetch. See: Katrina, etc.
Quoting 44. guygee:

If that is true then the surge on the LH side of the storm (NH) would be the same as the RH side, which it is not. This is not a chicken and egg conundrum. It is the wind and the fetch. See: Katrina, etc.

So does the surge depend on the pressure pushing down on the ocean?
POSS TC/STC
99L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 43. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Could someone post the current intensity of haima?


TPPN12 PGTW 190028

A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIWA)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 16.03N

D. 125.95E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURR BY W (+0.5
ADJ FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/1933Z 15.98N 127.20E SSMS
18/2151Z 16.03N 126.47E SSMS
18/2257Z 15.95N 126.28E SSMS


MARTINEZ
WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC AND TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM
WITH A WELL-DEFINED 31 NM EYE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS) AND A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THERE IS A PROMINENT ANTICYCLONE FEATURE TO THE NORTH BLOCKING THE
NORMALLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENT INTENSITY THE RESTRICTION TO FLOW IS HAVING
LIMITED IMPACT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29
TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY STY HAIMA IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH LUZON AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 30 STY HAIMA WILL
REEMERGE OVER WATER REORGANIZING AS A TYPHOON AND CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN JUST EAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 42
AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND STARTS TO TURN
NORTHWEST ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY HAIMA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERN TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FOR AN
EXTENSIVE PERIOD OVER LAND AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY TAU 120 THE
REMNANTS OF STY HAIMA WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST THROUGH TAU 72 AND MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER WATER. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Quoting 45. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


So does the surge depend on the pressure pushing down on the ocean?
The atmosphere has mass so there is pressure. On the FL east coast we have had relatively high pressure the past few days, but still experiencing ...HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING RISK...
Strong high pressure bringing waves due to pressure gradient and long fetch, added to high tides with the passing recent full moon..


TY 1622 (Haima)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 19 October 2016


Scale
-
Intensity
Violent
Center position
N1605' (16.1)

E12600' (126.0)
Direction and speed of movement
W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure
900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
85 m/s (165 kt)
%u2265 50 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)
%u2265 30 kt wind area
ALL 440 km (240 NM)
No rain, still no rain. All rain may stay west again.
Quoting 31. pottery:

What's up with that Blob in the Caribbean ?
Going the wrong way too.....


Unfortunately it is weakening.
Quoting 52. CaribBoy:



Unfortunately it is weakening.
it will back build in again tomorrow feeding whatever that low at 24n69w does you may get some spotty stuff overnight better chance in the light of the day tomorrow
It's so painful to see this turning NORTH at 50W :(

Quoting 53. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will back build in again tomorrow feeding whatever that low at 24n69w does you may get some spotty stuff overnight better chance in the light of the day tomorrow


That's what our local forecast says too. Hopefully it won't bust like it did the past few weeks.
Sam Lillo on Twitter (Oct.18) :
"WOW! Amazing textbook display here. Last 24 hours encompassing the end of one ERC* and the beginning of another." See tweet plus gif here : Link
"MIMIC illustrating the textbook ERC leading up to Haima's large eye and expanded powerful wind field." See tweet plus gif here : Link

Same, but direct links to MIMIC-TC :
"Yesterday's ERC : Link"
"Today's ERC : Link"
*Eyewall Replacement Cycle (Wikipedia).
Quoting 54. CaribBoy:

It's so painful to see this turning NORTH at 50W :(


might change we are on the last legs of the season now with just over 40 days to go then winter pattern takes hold till end of march
Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

might change we are on the last legs of the season now with just over 40 days to go then winter pattern takes hold till end of march


I appreciate your positive thinking. I will keep hoping until it's really over.
For now... Navgem, CMC, and HWRF are the most aggressive regarding possible development in the CATL in a few days.
That image of Meranti is not from Himiwari-8. Himiwari-8 doesn't have a night reflective imager. I believe that is a day/night image from the Suomi NPP VIIRS.
Quoting 39. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the update Gentlemen...


Hey, how's it going Ped? It's been a while since I've seen you. How is the drought situation in California now? I have heard that you guys got some rain from the powerful storm that hit the Pacific Northwest. Our weather is starting to cool down in South Florida, and, in fact our lows will be reaching the mid 60's and maybe some upper 50's over the weekend with very pleasant days ahead.How is the weather on your side?
Feels weird without a formed storm to track in the Atlantic it feels so long!
Quoting 51. CaribBoy:

No rain, still no rain. All rain may stay west again.


Oh Please, get in line... no measurable rain here since 05/07....
Quoting 61. Supportstorm:

That image of Meranti is not from Himiwari-8. Himiwari-8 doesn't have a night reflective imager. I believe that is a day/night image from the Suomi NPP VIIRS.

This is correct.

850 mb vorticity: -6 hrs (left), current (right)


500 mb vorticity: -6 hrs (left), current (right)

(click for larger images)

99L still showing characteristics of a cold core system-tilted to the northwest with height (evidence of cold air advection in the mid-levels-baroclinic). The cold mid-level air is more dense-so the heights are lower back towards the NW in the cold air.

Draw yourself an imaginary SW-NE axis through the center of each elongated area of vorticity and note the distance between the 850 and 500 mb axes (if you want, lol).

Still got a ways to go. But better than yesterday.
"rotating supercell thunderstorm with a wall cloud over Stillwater, OK, on May 9, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer gunhilda."

Way to go, gunhilda!
....

Guess the images of Houston (April) and Stillwater (May) got mixed in out of sync with the "three disasters from September 2016" blog narrative?
Probably easier to see the tilt here-500 mb heights (18-19,000') & MSLP (surface).

Quoting 64. PedleyCA:



Oh Please, get in line... no measurable rain here since 05/07....


In fact the rocky nature of the island makes it quite similar to certain places in California. And the similarities are even more striking during the dry season. But we are in october, not march.
@36 & 48 hrs
Still elongated in the GFS but more or less "stacked".





Note the approaching trough to the northwest.

Quoting 68. beell:

Probably easier to see the tilt here-500 mb heights (18-19,000') & MSLP (surface).


I think I've got it! By George, I've got it! Only took 9 years. Able to visualize the other way also, comment 66. This is way easier, especially when you see the low and mid levels coming together, comment 70).

Thank you, my dear Alphonse.
Haima's at least a 190mph typhoon right now, pressure's under 900mb. Structure is amazingly destructive looking. Sucks to not have exacts on these typhoons.
Is Haima that strong now? I imagine this might be what an eyewall replacement looks like, but it almost seems more as if the typhoon's stronger CDO is just sort of busting up, at least as seen on the Dvorak....



Jo
Quoting 73. flibinite:

Is Haima that strong now? I imagine this might be what an eyewall replacement looks like, but it almost seems more as if the typhoon's stronger CDO is just sort of busting up, at least as seen on the Dvorak....



Jo

It's probably down to 140kt or so after peaking as a 155-160kt typhoon this morning. Microwave imagery does show the system is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which is interesting because it just completed one last night and its eye is large (usually these inner core processes don't occur until the eye becomes much smaller). Still an extremely dangerous storm, but a bit of good news for Luzon.

SUPER
25W/STY/H/C5



eye seems too be clearing track has resumed as forecasted
as EWRC nears completion
regain then weaken once onshore at landfall
Quoting 63. chinookwx:

Feels weird without a formed storm to track in the Atlantic it feels so long!


It might feel even longer, like until next July or August before you see another one as I would not expect to see much more in the way of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane anymore this season. The rainy season is over and the dry season is here. And the Hurricane Season has just about come to an end. Otto if it forms should not amount to much.
who's alphonse?

:)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TYPHOON LAWIN
8:00 AM PhST October 19 2016
======================
"LAWIN" gains more strength and continues to threaten northern Luzon

At 7:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lawin (HAIMA) [925 hPa] located at 16.1N 126.3E or 450 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #3
===============
Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
Light damage to low risk structures
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Cagayan
Isabela
Kalinga
Apayao
Ifugao
Mt. Province

Signal Warning #2
===============
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Calayan Group of Islands
Northern Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Ilocos Sur
Ilocos Norte
Abra

Signal Warning #1
===============
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
Batanes group of Islands
Tarlac
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Rest of Aurora
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Bataan
Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands
Rizal
Laguna
Camarines
Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Additional Information
=================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

It is expected to intensify further before making landfall.

It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan Area by Thursday early morning (Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.

Possible to exit PAR on Friday early morning(Oct. 21) or tomorrow evening (Oct. 20).

Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar.
I sometime wonder about PAGASA's shipping pressure reports. 925 hPa?!


One of the most intense Hurricanes of all time. Gilbert, 1988


Hurricane Diana, 1984. Anybody remember this one?


Hurricane Frances, 2004 That was an active year for the sunshine state.
EarthUncutTV / James Reynolds on Twitter :
"Ominous skies loom over Tuguegarao as next rain band from #typhoon #Haima #LawinPH approaches"
32min ago (around 0420 UTC).

Gif animation. Ends at 0410 UTC. Source/credit : RAMMB-CIRA / JMA.


Jeanne takes aim on the Bahama's 2004


Ominous skies loom over Tuguegarao as next rain band from #typhoon #Haima #LawinPH approaches"
32min ago.
Quoting 51. CaribBoy:

No rain, still no rain. All rain may stay west again.


No hurricanes, still no hurricanes. I must not pretend I want them to stay west again.
Quoting 81. HurriHistory:



Hurricane Diana, 1984. Anybody remember this one?
Yes.
Quoting 81. HurriHistory:



Hurricane Diana, 1984. Anybody remember this one?


Literally the only notable aspect of an otherwise boring season. Talk about recurves; this blog would go crazy if we had a repeat.

Although I guess Lili was notable since it prompted a hurricane watch for Hispaniola the week of Christmas.
Sad to say, but Matthew's death toll surpassed all the other's combined. Not sure what the economic/property damage toll will end up to.
Might end up being close to the top of the list. Or the top?
Looks like ewrc should keep it in check, for now.



Looks very formidable, still.
Stay safe, Luzon!
Quoting 74. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's probably down to 140kt or so after peaking as a 155-160kt typhoon this morning. Microwave imagery does show the system is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which is interesting because it just completed one last night and its eye is large (usually these inner core processes don't occur until the eye becomes much smaller). Still an extremely dangerous storm, but a bit of good news for Luzon.




True. I was pretty surprised after I got home and had a look. Should complete it rather quickly, and it may be somewhat of a timing thing between now and landfall. Imagine it'll fall short though. Impressive cyclone, nonetheless.
Quoting 92. GatorWX:

Looks like ewrc should keep it in check, for now.



Looks very formidable, still.
Damn


SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 40 FEET


It's not going to "clip" the island.

Haima is currently forecast to make its second landfall near Hong Kong.

GFS coming into agreement with the Euro bringing more significant rains to the West Coast including California starting Monday.
Don't remember if I've seen gusts up to 305 km/h winds from PAGASA not even from Yolanda.

With PAGASA new classifications install since Yolanda, This is system is just below "Super Typhoon" which is sustained winds more than 220 km/h.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TYPHOON LAWIN
11:00 AM PhST October 19 2016
======================
"LAWIN" further intensifies and continues to pose an impending threat over Cagayan-Isabela area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lawin (HAIMA) [ hPa] located at 16.2N 125.7E or 385 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gustiness up to 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #4
===============
Very heavy damage to high–risk structures
Heavy damage to medium risk structures;
Moderate damage to low-risk structures
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows
A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge 2-3 m possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Southern Cagayan
Isabela

Signal Warning #3
===============
Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
Light damage to low risk structures
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Apayao
Ilocos Sur
Ilocos Norte
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Quirino
Kalinga
Northern Aurora

Signal Warning #2
===============
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Calayan Group of Islands
La Union
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Rest of Aurora
Tarlac

Signal Warning #1
===============
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
Batanes Group of Islands
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Bataan
Northern Quezon Including Polillio Islands
Metro Manila
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes

Additional Information
=================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the Typhoon.

It is expected to intensify further before making landfall.

It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan-Isabela Area late tonight (11:00 PM) up to tomorrow early morning(Oct. 20), (2:00 AM) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.

Possible to exit PAR tomorrow evening (Oct. 20) or on Friday early morning (Oct. 21).

Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar.
oh, several hours after the public statement from PAGASA's website, they tweet this image.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SUPER TYPHOON LAWIN
2:00 PM PhST October 19 2016
======================
"Lawin" intensified into a super typhoon and maintains its serious threat as it moves closer to Cagayan - isabela area

At 1:00 PM PhST, Super Typhoon Lawin (HAIMA) [ hPa] located at 16.5N 124.9E or 300 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots with gustiness up to 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #5
===============
Widespread damage to high-risk structures
Very heavy damage to medium-risk structures
Heavy damage to low-risk structures;
Almost total damage to structures of light in highly exposed coastal areas.
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Severe and extensive window and door damage
Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged.
Electrical power distribution and communication services severely disrupted.
All signs/billboards blown
Total damage to banana plantation
Most tall trees are broken, uprooted or defoliated;
Coconut trees are stooped, broken or uprooted.
Few plants and trees survived
Wave Height: more than 14.0 meters Storm surge more than 3 meters possible at coastal areas

Luzon region
--------------------
Cagayan
Isabela

Signal Warning #4
===============
Very heavy damage to high–risk structures
Heavy damage to medium risk structures;
Moderate damage to low-risk structures
Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows
A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged
All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation
Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge 2-3 m possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
Apayao
Kalinga
Ilocos Norte
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Calayan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #3
===============
Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
Light damage to low risk structures
Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
Almost all banana plants are downed.
Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
----------------
La Union
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Northern Aurora

Signal Warning #2
===============
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
---------------
Batanes Group of Islands
Pangasinan
Rest of of Aurora
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Northern Zambales
Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #1
===============
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
Rest of Zambales
Bulacan
Bataan
Pampanga
Rizal
Rest of Quezon
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Albay
Metro Manila

Additional Information
=================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 800 km diameter of the super typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan - Isabela Area late tonight up to tomorrow early morning (Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.

Possible to exit PAR tomorrow evening (Oct. 20) or on Friday early morning (Oct. 21).

Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboards Southern Luzon and the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar.
Good morning Cat.6 Crew...
Although the 6z update has Haima down a notch, i believe we could see some strengthening prior to landfall. To me, it looks like some heavy banding is trying to build in from the east side of the eye.
RAMMB visible view as the Sun sets over Haima today:

WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 19//RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND / ELONGATION OF THE CORE CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LUZON, HOWEVER, MSI SHOWS A 20-NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. A 190629Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH THE INNER EYEWALL BEGINNING TO ERODE, INDICATIVE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 KNOTS TO 155 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STY 25W WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST DUE TO THE ERC AND THEN MORE RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER WATER NEAR TAU 18. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY WILL RE-CURVE OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 96. AS IT RE-EMERGES BACK OVER WATER, STY 25W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. ADDITIONALLY, STY 25W WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE STR. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS AFTER TAU 96, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 120; HOWEVER, THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL LOW AS THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN
JTWC Website Link (for the latest, complete warnings)
ACE Updated: Oct 19, 2016 09:00
Sarika and Naima have added another 40 ACE to the global count.
Current global ACE is 738.41, which is 116% of normal YTD average.
WeatherBell: Link
good/morning water level around Merritt Is. is pretty high. if it continues rising we might see levels i have not seen since Nov. 1994

That which attacks them
As Hurricane Nicole marches towards Greenland, meteorologists are warning that it will kick off one of the eastern coast’s dangerous ‘piteraq’ storms
The Arctic Journal, October 18, 2016 - 5:38pm - By Kevin McGwin
The scientific name for the type of windstorm expected to pummel Greenland’s south-eastern coast later this week is a ‘drainage wind’. If that description doesn’t say anything to you, the local name, piteraq, or ‘that which attacks you’, may prove more illustrative.
Such storms are caused when cold, high-density air from the ice sheet is streams down to the coast. Typically, this happens in the autumn, when a low-pressure system moving up the eastern coast sucks air off the icecap. As the winds move to lower elevations, they pick up speed, sometimes being squeezed into long fjords that amplify the effect. By the time the winds reach the coast, they have often reached hurricane strength.
This is expected to the case later this week, when Hurricane Nicole, now south-east of Labrador, but weakening as it moves north and east, reaches Greenland’s eastern coast. ...


Whole article see link above with this youtube video of a Piteraq. Crazy ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxaLUw9lUD0


From the article above.


Current surface analysis with Ex-Nicole in the left upper corner.
little spin over east central bahamas. thought the invest was further east?
September 1998 and September 2016 are tied for warmest September in the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere. In 1998, the reason was heavily the 1997-1998 El Nino, despite the fact it was over - heat from the El Nino lingered. Why then would not the 2015-2016 El Nino get any credit / blame for September 2016 being so warm?
Quoting 108. islander101010:

little spin over east central bahamas. thought the invest was further east?


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 250 miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Cloudiness and
thunderstorms associated with this system are currently located
well east of the center due to strong upper-level westerly winds.
However, upper-level conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for this system to acquire some tropical characteristics,
and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form within the
next couple of days. The low is forecast to move northward today
and turn north-northwestward on Thursday, before turning
north-northeastward and merging with a cold front over the western
Atlantic by the weekend. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
was scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon has been
canceled. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern
Leeward Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 111. pingon:


It's too bad DOOM in the GOM didn't materialize! : )
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 55 seconds ago
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate #99L this afternoon has been canceled.
Quoting 90. KoritheMan:



Literally the only notable aspect of an otherwise boring season. Talk about recurves; this blog would go crazy if we had a repeat.

Although I guess Lili was notable since it prompted a hurricane watch for Hispaniola the week of Christmas.


The blog survived 2013...
Looking forward to this weekend's temperature change here in S Miami Dade. Outdoor activities become so much more enjoyable!

Quoting 100. HadesGodWyvern:

oh, several hours after the public statement from PAGASA's website, they tweet this image.




There is very few people living in the Signal Warning #5 area. The Signal 4 area is on the western side of the mountain range.



As you can see, the main road up the eastern side of the Sierra Madre Mountains is a fair was in from the coast because that area is like this

Some coastal communities east of the Sierra Madre Mountains, especially from Palanan, Isabela heading north to near the northernmost tip of mainland Cagayan, are remote and isolated with no roads connecting them to towns west of the mountain range. Towns like Palanan and Maconacon, Isabela can only be reached by plane from Cauayan City or a boat ride from Aurora province, south of Isabela.
Antagan (a bit south-east of Tuguegarao City) is reporting 10-Minute sustained winds of 113 kph (70 mph) gusting to 169 kph (105 mph). Those are already remarkable values given the Typhoon is still way offshore. Also, there is a 1700 meter (5500 foot) tall mountain range between Antagan and the Typhoon...
More record Global heat coming as models are converging on a Weak El-Nino developing come next Spring/Summer. Here is the Euro below. Positive PDO era's are notorious for El-Nino's so this should come as no surprise as i did warn everyone of this earlier this year.



CFSv2
Quoting 107. barbamz:

That which attacks them
As Hurricane Nicole marches towards Greenland, meteorologists are warning that it will kick off one of the eastern coast’s dangerous ‘piteraq’ storms
The Arctic Journal, October 18, 2016 - 5:38pm - By Kevin McGwin
The scientific name for the type of windstorm expected to pummel Greenland’s south-eastern coast later this week is a ‘drainage wind’. If that description doesn’t say anything to you, the local name, piteraq, or ‘that which attacks you’, may prove more illustrative.
Such storms are caused when cold, high-density air from the ice sheet is streams down to the coast. Typically, this happens in the autumn, when a low-pressure system moving up the eastern coast sucks air off the icecap. As the winds move to lower elevations, they pick up speed, sometimes being squeezed into long fjords that amplify the effect. By the time the winds reach the coast, they have often reached hurricane strength.
This is expected to the case later this week, when Hurricane Nicole, now south-east of Labrador, but weakening as it moves north and east, reaches Greenland’s eastern coast. ...


Whole article see link above with this youtube video of a Piteraq. Crazy ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxaLUw9lUD0


From the article above.


Current surface analysis with Ex-Nicole in the left upper corner.



An interesting phenomenon........basically a clear air wind storm

Link
weak el nino 2017 could mean Florida continues be in the cross hairs of these tropical systems
newest GFS this place will be hopping.
Quoting 121. islander101010:

weak el nino 2017 could mean Florida continues be in the cross hairs of these tropical systems


I think the season is over for the U.S., including Florida.
I could be wrong but we have a series of cold fronts and high pressure that will be dominating the eastern U.S. over the next couple weeks.

But I think we'll probably see a couple more named systems. I think we'll end up with around 16 named storms for the year.
Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:



I think the season is over for the U.S., including Florida.
I could be wrong but we have a series of cold fronts and high pressure that will be dominating the eastern U.S. over the next couple weeks.

But I think we'll probably see a couple more named systems. I think we'll end up with around 16 named storms for the year.


He's talking next year
a Nov. florida hit?? all depends on the timing. gfs really likes 99s near term future then oh wow.
Quoting 77. aquak9:

who's alphonse?

:)


All I can think of is Alphonse and Gaston comic characters
Where To Watch The ExoMars Landing Attempt
Popular Science - 3 h ago.
"If all goes well, Europe will become the second group ever to land successfully on Mars. The European Space Agency's Schiaparelli lander has separated from its mothership, the ExoMars Orbiter, and today the lander will descend to the surface of the red planet."

Watch ExoMars arrival and landing (ESA - Live Coverage)
* Facebook Live
* Livestream - ExoMars SocialTV
19 October: TGO Mars orbit insertion and Schiaparelli entry, descent and landing on Mars (atmospheric entry expected 14:42 GMT / 16:42 CEST, landing 14:48 GMT / 16:48 CEST)
20 October: Update on Schiaparelli status; descent images expected.
Twitter : ESA ExoMars
I know this post is long, but I couldn't get the GIF to show in this post. But still....

Latest run of the HRRR looks quite promising:


















And another fish in the CATL :/ Hopefully it will change
Quoting 121. islander101010:

weak el nino 2017 could mean Florida continues be in the cross hairs of these tropical systems


That's why scott loves EL NINO so much.
Quoting 120. KuCommando:

An interesting phenomenon........basically a clear air wind storm

Link

Interesting link. Thank you.

Here are the latest maps/pics from Denmark's meteorological site for Nicole's landfall/Impacts in Greenland.
Source (but it's in Danish).





Here's a google translation of the text on this site:
Previously tropical hurricane blows up in Southeast Greenland
The former tropical storm Nicole continues to cast strong winds of over Greenland. Wednesday resulted in the so-called stuvningsvind - in Greenlandic 'neqajaq' - that accelerated southward towards the East Greenland's largest city Tasiilaq.
When the former tropical storm Nicole approaching the waters off East Greenland Wednesday, October 19 will well enough to have lost some steam during his voyage towards Greenland, but that does not mean that it does not make any impact.
You will notice this particular in the town of Tasiilaq where Wednesday is set for a day with lots of rain, wind and strong gusts. In the morning hours Wednesday, October 19 was thus measured gusts near gale force starting at 24.5 m / s.
In the village of Kulusuk, about 20 km east of Tasiilaq, there was even more time in the storm with up to a fresh gale from the northeast and gusts of hurricane strength. The hurricane blowing when the wind speed exceeds 32.6 m / s.
Like hitting a brick wall
The reason for the strong winds caused indirectly the existence of the former tropical storm Nicole, and the fact that the wind blows counterclockwise around low pressure in the northern hemisphere.
When the wind hits the coastline northeast of Tasiilaq and Kulusuk, it's like hitting a brick wall. The wind can not blow through the wall but must find other ways. The result is a so-called stuvningsvind that in Greenlandic called for 'neqajaq', on Wednesday accelerated southward towards Tasiilaq and Kulusuk.
Read also the story of how ex-Hurricane Nicole also was the cause of the Greenland Piteraq wind of Southeast Greenland. Link.
By meteorologist Lars Henriksen. Editors Marianne Brandt



Map of the Piteraq from the link at the end of the article. "kold luft" means "cold air".

Bottom line what I've learned today about Greenland's weather when something like Ex-Nicole hits in the southeast: First a fierce storm called Piteraq is triggered in the southeast (coming down from the glaciers, see post #107), then a another strong wind named Neqajaq will develop along the coastline further north (translated article above is about the latter).

Weatherstation Tasiilaq
Quoting 129. CaribBoy:

And another fish in the CATL :/ Hopefully it will change


Good morning

Over here on St. Thomas, we've had five inches of rain so far this month, just short of a half inch for the monthly average. I was really hoping you were getting some of this. This island is the greenest I've seen it in a long time!
Quoting 129. CaribBoy:

And another fish in the CATL :/ Hopefully it will change


Death-caster? Hasn't there been enough death and destruction this year?

I wish the ATL hurricane season ended today.
135. elioe
CFSv2 is mad.



I have no clue, how on Earth can it project below-average monthly temperatures to large patches of Arctic Ocean, just few months after ice extent has been near record low.

And perhaps there are teleconnections between errors. Like obviously was the case earlier this year, when the model was initialized with huge subsurface anomalies in equatorial Atlantic, and as long as that error remained, the model projected an El Niño to return.
Basically a weak La Nina produced Matthew (strongest storm we've seen in the Atlantic Basin in a while) and an above average season.
Quoting 134. AussieStorm:



Death-caster? Hasn't there been enough death and destruction this year?

I wish the ATL hurricane season ended today.


Nothing at my place, no storm no rain. Also, do I need to recall once again that I don't want a major hurricane. Is it so hard to memorize this. It is october, so we are supposed to get weather and plenty of rain. But for some reasons nothing is happening since the low rider Matthew....
PDO was negative in August and September. I think the positivity of PDO from early 2014 to July 2016 is likely to be one of those shorter term things that has happened in the PDO before, like the one that started in mid 1957.

Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:

More record Global heat coming as models are converging on a Weak El-Nino developing come next Spring/Summer. Here is the Euro below. Positive PDO era's are notorious for El-Nino's so this should come as no surprise as i did warn everyone of this earlier this year.
Quoting 132. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Good morning

Over here on St. Thomas, we've had five inches of rain so far this month, just short of a half inch for the monthly average. I was really hoping you were getting some of this. This island is the greenest I've seen it in a long time!


Not even 0.5 inch here. Record dry.

The atmosphere has been less dry near PR it seems.
Quoting 138. Klipperweather:

PDO was negative in August and September. I think the positivity of PDO from early 2014 to July 2016 is likely to be one of those shorter term things that has happened in the PDO before, like the one that started in mid 1957.



?? You need to go back to the drawing board and re evaluate your statement there kid.
Quoting 102. SPShaw:

Good morning Cat.6 Crew...
Although the 6z update has Haima down a notch, i believe we could see some strengthening prior to landfall. To me, it looks like some heavy banding is trying to build in from the east side of the eye.
RAMMB visible view as the Sun sets over Haima today:




definitely not, Haima's weakening is a classic reaction to the mountain ranges it's getting close to. Cyclones don't make landfall on large landmasses with high mountains without significant weakening before landfall.
Quoting 139. CaribBoy:



Not even 0.5 inch here. Record dry.

The atmosphere has been less dry near PR it seems.


It was like a desert when I was there back in September
Quoting 92. GatorWX:

Looks like ewrc should keep it in check, for now.



Looks very formidable, still.
Almost landfall


The pattern of 2016 doesn't give us a single favor. Rain has been east, south and north. Now it's to the west...
Quoting 142. StormTrackerScott:



It was like a desert when I was there back in September


August and early september have been dry. Then we got regular rain for three weeks. Then Matthew came as a boring low rider, leaving us dry for weeks until now.

We got 150 to 200mm of rain during september, so it wasn't dry at all. The island was very green at the end of the month. Now it's still green, but drying is becoming apparent.

Typically, drying doesn't occur until january...
Good Morning; interesting with the 60% off the US Coast; but the best looking blob in the Atlantic is currently parked right between PR and Hispanola:





Quoting 140. StormTrackerScott:



?? You need to go back to the drawing board and re evaluate your statement there kid.


Maybe you should look up the values before saying such things. NOAA have the PDO as negative in August and September - Link

Likley due to the developing weak La nina - which you were saying wouldn't occur and we'd have an El Nino this year...
gfs 150 hrs seems to think c.v. season is not over
Quoting 140. StormTrackerScott:



?? You need to go back to the drawing board and re evaluate your statement there kid.


Hey Jeff, glad your forecast this week of a of a 100 year flood for Central Florida didn't work out. That would have been devastating.
Stunning pics:
Satellite Eye on Earth: September 2016 - in pictures
A newly calved iceberg, an ice avalanche in Tibet and urban growth in Nairobi were among the images captured by European Space Agency and Nasa satellites last month
The Guardian, Wednesday 19 October 2016 11.11 BST

Mars landing: tense wait as ESA determines whether Schiaparelli probe has landed safely - live
152. bwi
The north Atlantic cold patch and the record warmth off the U.S. northeast coast just persists and persists.

And the warmth in the north Pacific in ridiculously resilient ridge area.

Another warm fall/cold winter in the U.S. east, with big snow bombs?
Philippines radar with landfalling Haima/Lawin


Quoting 85. 999Ai2016:

September an Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months - Climate Central.
"According to NASA, 11 of the past 12 months have been record warm (for perspective, the last record-cold month was December 1916)." October 17, NASA :
NASA Analysis Finds Warmest September on Record By Narrow Margin
GISS director Gavin Schmidt : "We continue to stress that while monthly rankings are newsworthy, they are not nearly as important as long-term trends."
Looking at the picture in the first article, I wonder what's happening with West Antarctica ?
Quoting 152. bwi:

The north Atlantic cold patch and the record warmth off the U.S. northeast coast just persists and persists.

And the warmth in the north Pacific in ridiculously resilient ridge area.

Another warm fall/cold winter in the U.S. east, with big snow bombs?
Good morning BWI...I believe your right...It will be cold and rough for the Eastern half, the heaviest over the eastern third....Pieces of the weak polar vort should dive into the U.S...May have a couple major ice events....jmo
Quoting 149. islander101010:

gfs 150 hrs seems to think c.v. season is not over
It aint over till the fat lady sings. Personally, I'm still calling for 2-3 more named storms before the official end on Nov. 30. There is still a lot of deep heavy convection out there in the Central Atlantic and offshore the Southeast U.S. Given what we have seen this season in regards to Matthew and Nicole being October hurricanes, I'm not writing off what will happen from now until November.

Current view of the Tropical Atlantic:

Quoting 148. Envoirment:



Maybe you should look up the values before saying such things. NOAA have the PDO as negative in August and September - Link

Likley due to the developing weak La nina - which you were saying wouldn't occur and we'd have an El Nino this year...


Bingo
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 152. bwi:

The north Atlantic cold patch and the record warmth off the U.S. northeast coast just persists and persists.

And the warmth in the north Pacific in ridiculously resilient ridge area.

Another warm fall/cold winter in the U.S. east, with big snow bombs?


This may be of interest: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=3485
161. vis0


and not to be forgotten (wCoasters say that's us) the ATL and what could be a true HYDRA.  Monster and moisture...M&M (halloween theme)

...till radar is perfected ...

(as clues i have posted... as specific resonance to/through lasers reflecting off mountain stations equipment also resonating  and off buoys within 150 miles limits etc etc ---diff in reso. measures droplet size, motion, depth, speed then compu'r fills in missing data in radar presented as fast blinking radar colours---)


...so the full spiral "beauty" of a LOW can be seen the rest of the USofA has not its attention out west.  We get a crappy tiny rotation over the great lakes we're in aw, a monster hurricane live cold core LOW thrashes the NW but all we see on radar or Morse code for what am i chop liver and that anemic radar gets little attention.


...there! the sites new name wha?? already chosen?

as to blogbyte subject, i can hear it already...see i told ya no more global warming...
(anyone remember me saying that scientist should emphasize to  the public how its not what is presently happening but the long term trend that shows the globe as a whole is warming. 
Now get out those examples showing how much ice we need to replace to bring the planet back to its NATURAL flow (NOT the present irresponsible man's  influenced super accelerated flow) and how Earth would have to go through a frozen period for YEARS! (killing most animals...hey that's us!?) to recoup the lost ice.

as to Nino/Nina

 congrats to STS (though i think STS preffered to have been wrong on the Florida hit) 

Hey STs called it last Jan (hinted last dec2015) as Nino would last till June, i think officially it was till the last week of May)

STS stated we stay neutral and expected even a quasi-like (my words) Nino affects  till late fall even winter (that still remains to be seen but leaning towards that)

To be on the lookout for storms getting nearer to Florida or even 1 or 2 hitting Florida (50% there, but a doozie of a 50% MATTHEW)

Expected a weak La Nina in 2017 around late winter/early spring.

The one i still find hard to fathom (but is still in the cards as to my science theories) is another mod/strong El Nino within a year though via physics/climatology that is not reality so i'd hold back on that and observe.

Now lets blend back into the blogbytes topic and post why the public should still be concerned as my example::

How much has the public saved in not addressing (being told not to care by certain stations/companies) the fact that the planet is warming and doing so in a VERY UNNATURAL fast speed
which raisers the atmospheres moisture content (moisture being one of the important fuel sources for storms and with an imbalance caused by too much moisture it creates a natural ebb and flow of too  too little moisture via "block or cut off systems" causing weather extremes ...

( too wet and too dry near-by where the HIGH become RRRrs)

...to become more prominent thus giving people less time to repair damages)

so how much did the average "Joe (the plumber)" save  in not caring as to the planets illness (warming)  thus having floods damage infrastructure? 10$, 100$, 1 million or lost millions?
Answer:: none of the above it was billions lost.  When one was a kid one was told save money so you have more money later.  Then at age 35 you wished you began to save money before you were 30, make the planet GOOD again start now!
163. vis0

Quoting 35. 999Ai2016:

China's Hainan island evacuates nearly half million people as typhoon hits - EMTV / Oct. 19.
Typhoons Haima and Sarika - Reliefweb.int / Oct. 19.
25W Haima :

Himawari-9 is scheduled for launch on 1 November 2016 (JMA, Sept. 2, 2016) :
"JMA began operation of Himawari-8 on 7 July 2015 as a replacement for MTSAT-2 (also known as Himawari-7). Himawari-9 will also be launched in 2016 as a backup and successor satellite. Both satellites will be located in orbit at around 140 degrees east, and will observe the East Asia and Western Pacific regions for a period of 15 years. All imagery derived from Himawari-8/9 is and will be distributed to NMHSs via an Internet cloud service."

hopefully Himawari-9 is encased to protect it from solar winds as it waits for its use...

why??
(following not researched via facts but just my 22cents

my zilly theory from my 1970 papers as earths sun cycle 8-11 yrs "physically breathing" at 11yrs.
what i called in 1970ish a  solar phase involves 4 cycles or roughly 44 yrs  x  4 or  176 yrs.  (does not mean MAX only happens once in those 144 yrs or only at or near the end of 144 yrs but that the odds rise for a serious MAX going deeper into that 144yrs.
That means that within the 15 yr expectancy of these SATs a major solar wind might happen and as i have posted on my now deleted WxU blogs and other blogs since early 1990s (boards) and sent to gov. to be aware of how bad these solar winds can be with nuclear silos to the point that the thought to be accident proof  multi level secure controls can by these solar winds cause  just a few silos triggers thus create a canyon out west i weirdly nicknamed contaminated canyon quasi- separating mainland USof A to the now western States as rainfall will cause many more rivers that will connect twards the Pacific from where the silos where. (wide range com,es fromn 36% via my theory as to Galacsics.  Then 15% to 40% when i try using physics but i stink at physics so my average is weighted towards the Galacsics results.  

 

Hopefully these MAX solar winds are being taken seriously as i think one can be 20-40% stronger than what happened in the late 1800s. )