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Super Typhoon Haima Takes Aim on Philippines

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:00 PM GMT on October 18, 2016

Now an extremely dangerous Category 5 storm, Super Typhoon Haima is en route to hammer parts of the far northern Philippines that were slammed by another typhoon less than a week ago. Packing top sustained winds of 160 mph (1-minute average) on Tuesday morning, Haima was located about 450 miles east of the Philippines, moving just north of due west at about 17 mph. Haima’s power was obvious on satellite imagery Tuesday morning, with a large ring of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops completely encircling Haima’s distinct eye. Haima is not only intense but mammoth: hurricane-force winds extend more than 60 miles northeast of its center and tropical-storm-force winds extend more than 200 miles northeast.

Haima’s track should angle slightly rightward over the next 24 hours, which would bring the typhoon onto the far northeast coast of the Philippines’ Luzon Island on Wednesday night local time (Wednesday afternoon EDT). Now that Haima has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, its overall structure should remain intact up through landfall. Haima’s new eye is nearly 30 miles across, large enough to allow considerable contraction. Together with the trends evident on satellite, this suggests that Haima could intensify even more prior to landfall. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Haima approaching Luzon as a Category 5 storm on Wednesday. More than 48 million people live on the island, although the population density is larger toward the island’s southern end, where Manila is located. The sparsely populated northeast coast of Luzon appears on track for an extremely powerful hit from Haima. Fortunately, there are no cities along this coast the size of Tacloban City, where the storm surge associated with Super Typhoon Haiyan killed more than 5000 people in 2013. The largest population center of far northeast Luzon is the city of Tuguegarao, located about 25 miles inland and shielded by a coastal range of mountains.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite of Super Typhoon Haima as of 1400Z (10:00 am EDT) Tuesday, October 18, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Forecast from JTWC for Haima as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Tuesday, October 18, 2016.

Flooding a major threat over northern Philippines
It was just last Sunday local time when Tropical Storm Sarika made landfall on the east coast of Luzon shortly after attaining Category 4 strength. Sarika’s west-northwest track took it across the heart of the island, where it produced rainfall totals that topped 20 inches in spots. Sarika is now approaching far northern Vietnam and far south China as a much weaker storm, though it could still drop more than 8” of rain along its slow-moving path. Haima is likely to dump another 10 - 20” of rain, with even higher local totals, across the northern half of Luzon, along a track roughly 100-150 miles north of Sarika’s. Following in Sarika’s footsteps, Haima is expected to continue toward a second landfall on the coast of south China as a much weaker system.

Seven Cat 5 cyclones in 2016 thus far
Haima is the planet’s seventh Category 5 storm of the year. This makes 2016 Earth’s third consecutive year with an above-average number of these most dangerous of tropical cyclones. Since 1990, Earth has averaged between 4 and 5 Category 5 storms per year. The other Category 5 storms of 2016 were:

Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji in the Southwest Pacific in February;
Tropical Cyclone Fantala from May, in the Southwest Indian Ocean;
Super Typhoon Nepartak from July, in the Northwest Pacific Ocean;
Super Typhoon Meranti in the Northwest Pacific, which struck the small Philippine island of Itbayat Island while at peak strength in September;
Super Typhoon Chaba in the Northwest Pacific, which weakened before affecting South Korea and Japan in early October;
Hurricane Matthew in the Atlantic in October.

Meranti was the most intense Category 5 of the year thus far, with sustained winds of 190 mph and a central pressure of 890 mb.


Figure 3. Satellite image of Invest 99L as of 1408Z (10:08 am EDT) Tuesday, October 18, 2016.

Tropical storm may form in northwest Atlantic this week
The long-brewing disturbance east of the Bahamas dubbed Invest 99L has a decent shot at becoming a named storm over the next several days. 99L has a large area of fairly disorganized convection (showers and thunderstorms), with top sustained winds as high as 35 mph, but it still lacks the closed center of circulation that would qualify it as a tropical depression. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8 AM EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 99L a 40 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by Thursday morning, and a 70 percent chance through Sunday morning.

The best shot for 99L’s development may be around Thursday, as it arcs gradually northwest around the Bahamas. Models differ on how far west this arcing path will take 99L and how strong it might become. Sea surface temperatures will remain at least marginally supportive, in the 26 - 28°C range (79 - 82°F), through Friday, and the mid-level atmosphere is reasonably moist (60 - 70%). However, 99L will be fighting wind shear now around 40 knots that will be only marginally more favorable (20-25 knots) by late in the week. The GFDL and HWRF models bring 99L to weak tropical storm strength by Wednesday and keep it there through the weekend. More than 80% of the 00Z Tuesday ensemble runs of the ECMWF, and about two-thirds of the 00Z Tuesday GFS ensemble runs, bring 99L up to tropical storm strength. There is no operational or ensemble model support for 99L becoming a hurricane, or even a strong tropical storm. The strong wind shear suggests that any development of 99L could be as a subtropical rather than a tropical cyclone.

Models are in very close agreement that 99L will turn sharply north-northeastward late next week ahead of a strong front that will be moving through the eastern U.S. It appears likely that 99L will be swept north along this front, eventually merging with a strong area of low pressure predicted to move from New England into eastern Canada over the weekend. This evolving front and low could become a major rain-producer across parts of northwest Pennsylvania, northern New York, northern and eastern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick.


Figure 4. Enhanced infrared satellite image of former Tropical Storm Nicole at 0430Z (12:30 am EDT) Tuesday, October 18, 2016, just hours before it was reclassified as a post-tropical cyclone. Image credit: CIRA/CSU/RAMMB.

Nicole’s long life as a tropical cyclone comes to a close
At 5 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center reclassified Tropical Storm Nicole as Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole, bringing to a close nearly two weeks of NHC advisories on this venerable system. Located at 47.1°N—further north than Montreal and about 900 miles south of Greenland—Nicole was in the process of being absorbed by a midlatitude frontal system. Although Nicole’s top sustained winds remained 50 mph, the storm was barely discernible on satellite imagery, with its center elongated and virtually devoid of showers and thunderstorms.

Nicole was christened as a tropical storm at 11 AM EDT October 4, and it attained and lost hurricane status on three separate occasions, the first Atlantic storm to pull off this hat trick since Tomas (2010). According to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), Nicole is the longest-lived (13.75 days) of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes forming after October 1 since the destructive 1906 Florida Keys hurricane. That one was born as a tropical storm on October 8 and dissipated as a tropical depression on October 23.

The October heat wave continues
Records are dropping like autumn leaves across much of the central and eastern U.S. as an incredibly warm air mass for mid-autumn progresses across the nation. On Monday, Dodge City, KS, rocketed to 101°F, which broke the all-time high for October that had been set just the day before at 99°F. Records began at Dodge City way back in 1873. Neighboring Garden City, KS, accomplished the same feat, setting an all-time October high of 98°F on Sunday followed by 100°F on Monday. Temperatures on Tuesday were on track to soar into the 80s from Chicago, IL, to Albany, NY, and many locations are experiencing summer-like nights as well. In Moline, IL, the low on Monday was 71°F, the city’s first-ever low of at least 70°F after October 6 in records going back to 1874. If Detroit manages to stay above 69°F through midnight Tuesday night, its morning low of 70°F will stand as the warmest daily minimum achieved on any date from October through April in records going back to 1874.

We’ll be back this afternoon with our global climate wrap-up for September.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Cyclone Fantala was in April!!
"This evolving front and low could become a major rain-producer across parts of northwest Pennsylvania, northern New York, northern and eastern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick."

Do you mean northeast Pennsylvania?

25W/STY/H/C5+


reaper
Hmm...I am not an expert in english, but is the phrase "angling slowly rightward" intentional or is it a typo?
Quoting 4. Trumpisboss:

Hmm...I am not an expert in english, but is the phrase "angling slowly rightward" intentional or is it a typo?

its exactly as it is rightward slowly
thanks for lunch time read gents good info as always

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181437
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 18 OCTOBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 19/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.5N 68.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Glad Haima is heading to N of Luzon, the S doesn't need another monster H storm.

Won't be quite as warm today in S C IL, but dew pts are summer like again, winds down slightly. Currently 77 w/ a 69 dew pt., 29.77", 10-15 SSW winds gusting near 30.

StL did set a daily high of 91 yesterday, but didn't break Oct. record. Will likely tie today's at 86. Also, a StL sidenote, Happy 90th Bday to the man in my avatar, Chuck Berry, the father of rock n roll. Post-Dispatch had article today and says he's releasing his first album since '79 in '17, dedicated to his wife of 68 yrs. So glad I was able to see one of his shows at Blueberry Hill a few years back. Hail, Hail Rock n Roll!
Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
Potential for very strong wind gusts today.

Very strong and gusty southwest winds are expected this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds gusting to 60 or 70 km/h are likely in many areas.

Scattered showers and the odd thunderstorm are likely this afternoon ahead of the front. Even stronger wind gusts to 80 km/h are possible in these showers. Warnings are not anticipated at this time as the winds are not expected to exceed 90 km/h. However, Environment Canada will monitor the situation closely.

Winds will quickly diminish this evening with the passage of the cold front.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
noon observations

Temperature:
76.6F
Dewpoint:
61.5F
Humidity:
59%
Wind:
SW 24 gust 35 mph
Humidex:
85
Normals
Max:
55F
Min:
41F
Quoting 4. Trumpisboss:

Hmm...I am not an expert in english, but is the phrase "angling slowly rightward" intentional or is it a typo?



Good catch of one of our shifting definitions. "Angling" is often now inferred as turning but mathematically I agree we should again stay precise and reserve the term "angling" for a sharp turn. "Angling slowly" implies a gradual turn which is contrary to my mathematical definition in the second sentence.

'course I still haven't reduced the use of adverbs in written documents as much as I'd like (by about a factor of ten].

I guess I'm getting old and crotchety.
Pretty quiet out there..

Thanks guys. Buzzsaw of a storm. Only thing that seems to be holding a lid on it (relatively speaking) for now is the cool-ish eye temperature. That's keeping it at "only" low-end Cat 5 intensity based on satellite estimates. If the eye warms, and it maintains similarly cold CDO convection to what it has now, T-numbers should head towards 8.0.

"The strong wind shear suggests that any development of Nicole could be as a subtropical rather than a tropical cyclone. "

Well, I guess 99L could become Otto, but Nicole is a name used already ;)


non tropical model NAM
Don't they mean 99L, where they state "any development of Nicole could be as a subtropical...."? I guess no one proof reads before posting. Their right, I suppose.
Quoting 18. tanda35:

Don't they mean 99L, where they state "any development of Nicole could be as a subtropical...."? I guess no one proof reads before posting. Their right, I suppose.
no it should be otto Nicole was likely on his mind and mix it up it will get corrected
Super Typhoon Chaba also achieved a category 5 intensity of 145 kt earlier this month.

Also, for those who are interested, I have just completed weekly my analysis and forecast for the Tropical Western Pacific. Unsurprisingly, Super Typhoon Haima is the entry's main focus.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/1900hurricane/w estern-pacific-tropical-analysis-october-18-2016

OH YEAH!!! FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON!! BRING IT ON, STORM GOD!!!!! DO WHAT YA DO BEST!!!!!!!



SPC AC 181651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TX TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DAY2/WEDNESDAY. GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
WHERE HAIL AND WIND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY AS 500MB FLOW
INCREASES OVER ERN CO/WRN KS ALLOWING A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
DIG SEWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LAGGING PIECE
OF TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING SYNOPTIC
FRONT WHICH COULD FOCUS ROBUST CONVECTION AS IT TRANSLATES FROM ERN
OK TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL OF MO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SFC FRONT
WILL THEN SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CNTRL TX BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE SRN
PLAINS...NEWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DUE TO STRONG SFC HEATING. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...SFC HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AID
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
INTO THE OH VALLEY.

WHILE STRONGEST 500MB FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE ROUGHLY 40KT
IS EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN A FEW SUPERCELLS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO AFTER 21Z WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR AND MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION...HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND WITH TSTMS THAT EVOLVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY. IF TIMING OF FRONTAL WAVE/CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE...A CONCENTRATED NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE MAY OCCUR FROM
NWRN AR INTO SCNTRL MO.
Quoting 18. tanda35:

Don't they mean 99L, where they state "any development of Nicole could be as a subtropical...."? I guess no one proof reads before posting. Their right, I suppose.


It's they're (in this circumstance). ;)
Quoting 21. 1900hurricane:

Super Typhoon Chaba also achieved a category 5 intensity of 145 kt earlier this month.




Indeed! Thanks for the catch--we missed that one amid the Matthew craziness. Post has been updated. Thanks also to tanda35 for catching a 99L/Nicole mixup. One of us typically proofreads each post, but things do slip by on occasion, so we appreciate your letting us know when they do.
Laugh if you will, but I will watch this wave carefully. Also, next week, look very carefully in the western Caribbean for another system.




Click picture to enlarge - a lot :

25W Haima (WPac). Screenshot, 1650 UTC - Oct. 18. Credit/link : RAMMB-CIRA / JMA.
* Himawari-8 Loop of the Day *
Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen.
Double Checked the CoCoRaHS site and we didn't get any measurable Rain Yesterday. So now 163 days with no rain.
This Haima looks like a really nasty piece of work. Is Cat 5 possible at landfall on the northern east coast?
Massive winds with horrendous rains and the run off along with all sorts of other bad things.
I am hoping as much as anybody can hope that this is not a repeat of the typhoon which got the central part of the Philippines a couple of years ago. Cant remember its name just now. The 160 MPH one.
Quoting 22. 1900hurricane:

Also, for those who are interested, I have just completed weekly my analysis and forecast for the Tropical Western Pacific. Unsurprisingly, Super Typhoon Haima is the entry's main focus.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/1900hurricane/w estern-pacific-tropical-analysis-october-18-2016




One look at the water vapor satellite and one can see why the western Pacific produces such powerful systems. There is so much available water vapor for the systems to work with.

The Atlantic Basin is a barren desert in comparison.
Have not been on the past several days but just saw/noticed the new "Category 6" title for the Blog along with the "TM" for the trademark........................Very clever title and fitting given the main tropical nature of this blog and catchy as well; an eye-turner for the uninitiated and fitting in a world where we are seeing more intense storms and typhoons in recent decades. For those who were concerned about the delay, and "legal issues" noted several weeks ago on the title issue, I used to trademark names back in the day and you have to file with the Patent and Trademark Office with the proposed new name for a product that "crosses" state borders (via the internet in this case), and wait for a period of time for publication of the proposed title to see if anyone opposes the new name based on prior use..............Sounds like "Category 6" passed the test.
Wow! Haima - impressive rapid scan satellite

Link
And I am guessing that the global temp stats for September will show one of the hottest global Septembers in the recent historical record:





33. weathermanwannabe : good guess - it is apparently the hottest global September in the recent historical record (by a narrow margin) according to NASA - GISS, and the second hottest according to NOAA :
Hottest Months on Record Have Something in Common
September an Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months
Climate Central - Oct. 18-17.
NASA Analysis Finds Warmest September on Record By Narrow Margin
NASA - October 17.
Quoting 32. jeffreygtc:

Wow! Haima - impressive rapid scan satellite

Link


This thing looks like a fireworks display.
Quoting 33. weathermanwannabe:

And I am guessing that the global temp stats for September will show one of the hottest global Septembers in the recent historical record:








Already on the books

September an Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months

NASA Analysis Finds Warmest September on Record By Narrow Margin

Although, the National Centers for Environmental Information called it the other way:

Monthly record warm streak ends; September second warmest on record for the globe
Year-to-date continues to be record warm

If we hit 80 today here in Pittsburgh - and as I type this, we are sitting at 78 - this will mark unofficially the 105th day for 2016 in which we've seen highs of at least 80 here. Simply amazing.

As it stands thus far for October, we have seen 10 days with highs over 70. That's just unheard of, as we should be in the mid-60s for highs by this time of the year.

Every year, it gets more intolerable around here - and not just because of the plethora of idiots running around in their little hockey and football paraphernalia.
2 pm obs
Temperature:
77.4°F
Dewpoint:
62.6°F
Humidity:
60%
Wind:
SW 24 gust 35 mph
Humidex:
87
Normals
Max:
55°F
Min:
41°F
Interesting how horizontal the temp lines are at the moment almost exactly on the 45 degrees north line .
Strange that Nicole is going towards Greenland and still this intense, there could be a lot of rain on the ice there and anybody who has every defrosted a refrigerator and run cold water over the ice knows how fast it melts it!



Link

Nice to see a quieter comments section. as much as we love to track, A storm like Matthew brings out the worst kind of commenter.

77F degrees today in Cent Ind. Expecting 56F on Friday. Fall, finally?
Quoting 41. PlazaRed:

Interesting how horizontal the temp lines are at the moment almost exactly on the 45 degrees north line .
Strange that Nicole is going towards Greenland and still this intense, there could be a lot of rain on the ice there and anybody who has every defrosted a refrigerator and run cold water over the ice knows how fast it melts it!



Link


This morning on TWC, Cantore was saying forecast for E (side) of Greenland was in feet of snow as Nicole approached, 6 in places. (Edited from coast)
25W/STY/H/C5+
Quoting 45. dabirds:

This morning on TWC, Cantore was saying forecast for E coast of Greenland was in feet of snow as Nicole approached, 6+ in places.

Interesting.
A foot of snow would probably be about an inch of rain so that's 6 inches of rain. Could be touching some record books if they exist for the east coast of Greenland. Not many people live there to have measured 6 inches of rain.
Scary Typhoon in the WPAC. Pity something so beautiful can be so deadly.
STY Haima is officially down to 900 mb:


Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°00' (16.0°)
E127°35' (127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)


Quoting 26. Grothar:

Laugh if you will, but I will watch this wave carefully. Also, next week, look very carefully in the western Caribbean for another system.







Would you expect a western Caribbean system to move north into the GOM or westward?
Quoting 38. PPUGrad04:

If we hit 80 today here in Pittsburgh - and as I type this, we are sitting at 78 - this will mark unofficially the 105th day for 2016 in which we've seen highs of at least 80 here. Simply amazing.

As it stands thus far for October, we have seen 10 days with highs over 70. That's just unheard of, as we should be in the mid-60s for highs by this time of the year.

Every year, it gets more intolerable around here - and not just because of the plethora of idiots running around in their little hockey and football paraphernalia.


Maybe if y'all hadn't beaten the Caps hockey fever would damp out in your town (then I'd have to deal with it in mine).

Late summer through mid autumn has indeed been extraordinarly warm in your area. I notice cuz I track the
weather at OU where my son (a rabid caps fan BTW) attends. I told him how fall comes faster there than here in the mid atlantic.. yeah.. not this year!
This reminds me of one of those developing nor easters with the convection on the west side with the most on the north east and northwest. Could become something like an early season almost sort of tropical noreaster?
Edit: The picture is not showing up. It is 99l from the above blog.
Quoting 47. PlazaRed:


Interesting.
A foot of snow would probably be about an inch of rain so that's 6 inches of rain. Could be touching some record books if they exist for the east coast of Greenland. Not many people live there to have measured 6 inches of rain.


Some coastal locations such as Aputiteeq seem to have above-freezing temperatures and two-day rainfall of more than 100 mm in their forecast. Although I might be wrong, since I don't speak Danish. But looking at the models, even though Nicole will bring temperature anomalies of up to 20 degrees Celsius, it will still mean below-freezing temperatures in almost all of East Greenland.
Local TV meteorologist said my part of nj is almost 10 inches behind so far this year! Can someone clarify this?
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

25W/STY/H/C5+



So pretty :/
Quoting 54. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Local TV meteorologist said my part of nj is almost 10 inches behind so far this year! Can someone clarify this?


Parts of New Jersey are in a drought (D2-D4).
Link
Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

Have not been on the past several days but just saw/noticed the new "Category 6" title for the Blog along with the "TM" for the trademark........................Very clever title and fitting given the main tropical nature of this blog and catchy as well; an eye-turner for the uninitiated and fitting in a world where we are seeing more intense storms and typhoons in recent decades. For those who were concerned about the delay, and "legal issues" noted several weeks ago on the title issue, I used to trademark names back in the day and you have to file with the Patent and Trademark Office with the proposed new name for a product that "crosses" state borders (via the internet in this case), and wait for a period of time for publication of the proposed title to see if anyone opposes the new name based on prior use..............Sounds like "Category 6" passed the test.
I don't think it is "clever" at all!
How about that jet of water vapor near fukuoka, japan?! I would imagine that's quite a soaking...(top screen, above Haima)
hmmm...don't see anything on radar.
Link
Quoting 25. BobHenson:



Indeed! Thanks for the catch--we missed that one amid the Matthew craziness. Post has been updated. Thanks also to tanda35 for catching a 99L/Nicole mixup. One of us typically proofreads each post, but things do slip by on occasion, so we appreciate your letting us know when they do.


And Fantala was in April, not May
A piece of research from 2012 associated with strong typhoons and enso cycles; just noting that wind shear is pretty low in the portion of the w-pac where Haima is about wreck hacoc (and in October)........  
Changes in Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones Associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation CycleRichard C. Y. Li and Wen Zhou
This study examines the interannual variability of three groups of tropical cyclones (TCs)—super typhoons (STYs), typhoons (TYs), and tropical storms and tropical depressions (TSTDs)—and their relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both wavelet analysis and correlation studies of upper-ocean heat content reveal significant differences for the three types of TCs. In particular, an increase (decrease) in the frequency of STYs is usually associated with the mature phase of El Niño (La Niña) events, while the converse is true for TSTDs. In contrast, the frequency of TYs increases (decreases) during the transition period from La Niña to El Niño (El Niño to La Niña) events. The results suggest that the timing with which ENSO impacts STYs, TYs, and TSTDs varies and that their corresponding changes in frequency closely follow the evolution of the ENSO cycle.

Quoting 26. Grothar:

Laugh if you will, but I will watch this wave carefully. Also, next week, look very carefully in the western Caribbean for another system.






Grothar, I thought models were not showing a SW Carib storm anymore
it's over 140 knots (JTWC) now using the normal 10 minute sustained winds average.

Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST October 19 2016
=======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haima (900 hPa) located at 15.6N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 17.3N 121.7E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Overland Luzon - Mountain province/Ifugao region
48 HRS: 19.8N 116.6E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea
72 HRS: 23.6N 114.1E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South China Sea

Gulf Of Tonkin
At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Sarika (985 hPa) located at 20.4N 109.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 22.1N 107.4E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
season is pretty much over except for maybe the tailed end of a stalled front in the gulf
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

25W/STY/H/C5+


Now substitute Luzon with the FL peninsula. Can't imagine the panic that would cause.
Quoting 65. opal92nwf:


Now substitute Luzon with the FL peninsula. Can't imagine the panic that would cause.


Luckily monster storms like this are exceedingly rare in our basin.
Quoting 57. Waltanater:

I don't think it is "clever" at all!
how about unique would that be good
Dry season started with Matthew and Nicole... :/ I hate low riders and fishes.
Quoting 64. Hester122:

season is pretty much over except for maybe the tailed end of a stalled front in the gulf
perhaps 43 days remain sometimes lots can happen in 43 days then again maybe nothing we shall see
There is a huge blow up of convection just S of PR... would love to see it developing and head NE... Lol too much ask I know.


Hopefully some rain. October has been so dry... even more than february!
Quoting 66. pipelines:



Luckily monster storms like this are exceedingly rare in our basin.


For the time being. However, I think we can all agree that: Things are about to Change.
Quoting 70. CaribBoy:

There is a huge blow up of convection just S of PR... would love to see it developing and head NE... Lol too much ask I know.
I hope ya get a flood of rain then maybe you be happy or washed away and not happy one of the two
Looks like Haima is doing it again!?

Off Topic, Climate change:

A few years ago the city cut down an old box elder tree that was on our blvd. It was pretty diseased and not much left to it. They pulled out the stump, and shortly thereafter I was in Costco, and they had peach trees for sale. I thought 'Peach trees...? In Helena Montana? You can't grow peaches here!' But Costco has a reputation for knowing what they are doing, so I bought one and popped it in the ground. This year I got over two dozen peaches off the thing! Our next door neighbor, a retired scientist (hydrology) and native Georgian seems to be quite blown away that peaches are growable here.

Most Octobers here get pretty cold by this time. Sub-freezing temps this time of year are (were) quite common. I believe we have had just three nights so far that were sub-freezing so far.
Quoting 49. Carnivorous:

STY Haima is officially down to 900 mb:


Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°00' (16.0°)
E127°35' (127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)




Haiyan's Successor
Quoting 66. pipelines:



Luckily monster storms like this are exceedingly rare in our basin.

Isabel probably was one of a few exceptions
Quoting 62. nygiants:


Grothar, I thought models were not showing a SW Carib storm anymore


Some long range models are still showing cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean at the end of the month. There are also possibilities that a small system might develop east of the Antilles.
Quoting 26. Grothar:

Laugh if you will, but I will watch this wave carefully. Also, next week, look very carefully in the western Caribbean for another system.







Been keeping an eye on that for a little while - the Euro and its ensembles have taken a liking to it to some extent.
Quoting 78. Grothar:



Some long range models are still showing cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean at the end of the month. There are also possibilities that a small system might develop east of the Antilles.

I was telling them that Gro! Nobody hears from me lol. Glad I wasn't the only one who recognized that.
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

25W/STY/H/C5+


Ok Keep this should be a Category 6! This should take our new blog name. This thing is enormous man!
Quoting 30. Sfloridacat5:



One look at the water vapor satellite and one can see why the western Pacific produces such powerful systems. There is so much available water vapor for the systems to work with.

The Atlantic Basin is a barren desert in comparison.
Lots of space as well in the WPAC.
Quoting 82. bigwes6844:


Ok Keep this should be a Category 6! This should take our new blog name. This thing is enormous man!


i have been well taught not to look at a single wobble and comment on direction but Haima has been travelling West NorthWest by West over the last six hours, this brings its impact much closer to the larger population centres of Luzon and far closer to Sarika's path earlier in the week. Prayers for friends and family in the Phils.
Quoting 82. bigwes6844:


Ok Keep this should be a Category 6! This should take our new blog name. This thing is enormous man!
its a cat5+
Quoting 85. UKHWatcher:



i have been well taught not to look at a single wobble and comment on direction but Haima has been travelling West NorthWest by West over the last six hours, this brings its impact much closer to the larger population centres of Luzon and far closer to Sarika's path earlier in the week. Prayers for friends and family in the Phils.


I agree with you. I am not seeing that movement NW, as has been forecast.
Quoting 73. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I hope ya get a flood of rain then maybe you be happy or washed away and not happy one of the two


I can't get washed away, I live on a big rock... not to be confused with the wet islands of the central Lesser Antilles :)

So I can only be happy!
Sunrise. Hopefully Himawari-8 Rapid Scan will soon be focused on Haima instead of Sarika's remnant clouds...




Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its a cat5+


Keeper. Could you define what a Cat.6 would be in your personal view> For me it's not just wind, but the degree of devastation from rains and storm surge also.

It's a bit like the earthquake magnitude question. It depends on the environment of the occurrence, so a Magnitude 9.0 on land in a desert area would have little consequence, But the same in the sea, within 100 miles of a shallow coastline and/or unprotected gulf or bay which can pile up water itwould kill 10,000's not because of the initial quake, but the tsunami.

I appreciate that a Cat.5 is devastating over the area affected by the highest winds. But maybe the NHC et al, should give a second rating to the non-linear impacts aside from highest wind. A Cat.5 alpha would therefore have more damage potential than a Cat.5 epsilon.

I just feel the weather media only really concentrate on winds. It is pressures that give rise to storm surge. Even WU don't show pressure on their hurricane forecast maps

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 81. bigwes6844:


I was telling them that Gro! Nobody hears from me lol. Glad I wasn't the only one who recognized that.


:)
Quoting 83. Weatherfan1013:

Lots of space as well in the WPAC.



That does help some, but the atmospheric conditions are the key ingredient. Our basin has a very short window when the atmospheric conditions are favorable for tropical development (Aug- early Oct).

The East Pac produces a lot of hurricanes in a relatively small area just off Mexico and Central America. That is because the atmospheric conditions are favorable there. The conditions also stay favorable for a longer period of time.

East Pac is very active in July, while the Atlantic Basin is still trying to get its act together.
Quoting 78. Grothar:



Some long range models are still showing cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean at the end of the month. There are also possibilities that a small system might develop east of the Antilles.

In reality if something does form..could it be a Hurricane?
96. vis0
That's the "backpack" i thought was heading towards Cayman 2 days ago

oh well maybe if Otto forms it can use the backpack (vis0 suddenly stops  typing as all sorts of fruits n stuff are flying in vis0s direction from Matthew affected areas...oh here comes an 8mm reel from the Preminger family)
 
Meaning no harm watching to see how this 9?L  moves if no active weather as in lowering pressures seems to be the forecas tfor the NYS area.