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Twin Typhoons in Philippines; Nicole of the North; Hundred-Degree Heat in Plains

By: Bob Henson 2:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2016

The northern Philippines island of Luzon may soon experience its second typhoon strike in less than a week. Typhoon Sarika rapidly intensified from tropical storm to Category 4 strength in just 30 hours before plowing across central Luzon early Sunday local time, causing widespread power outages and forcing more than 15,000 people to evacuate. At least two deaths have been attributed to Sarika, according to weather.com. Sarika is now en route to the southern Chinese island of Hainan, where it should strike as a Category 1 typhoon, then weaken before reaching far northern Vietnam on Wednesday.

An even more fearsome storm is now on its way toward the Philippines: Typhoon Haima. Another rapid intensifier, Haima zoomed from tropical storm strength at 2:00 pm EDT Saturday to Category 4 strength as of 8:00 am EDT Monday. Light wind shear, a very moist atmosphere, and extremely warm water (sea surface temperatures close to 30°C) will provide Haima with very supportive conditions for strengthening. Already boasting a large circulation--its tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 150 miles--Haima is predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Service to become a super typhoon with Category 5 sustained winds of 160 mph by Tuesday, weakening only slightly before it reaches the northern tip of Luzon by Wednesday night local time.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared Himiwari-8 satellite image of Typhoon Haima at 7:00 am EDT Monday, October 17, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Among our top three track models, the 00Z Monday GFS and UKMET runs agree closely with the JWTC forecast, while the 00Z Monday European run takes Haima just a bit further south. Any of these tracks could produce rains of 10 - 15” over much of northern Luzon. This will fall atop the heavy rains produced by Sarika over the weekend, which will greatly exacerbate the risk of flooding. Assuming that Haima only nicks the northernmost part of the island, it may still be a formidable typhoon as it begins a gradual recurvature before striking the southeast China coast around Friday, perhaps in the vicinity of Shantou as a Category 2 or 3 storm.


Figure 2. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast for Typhoon Haima as of 8:00 am EDT Monday, October 17, 2016.


Figure 3. Typhoons Sarika (left) and Haima (right) as captured by the Himiwari-8 satellite at 4:00 am EDT Monday, October 17, 2016. Image credit: CIRA/CSU/RAMMB.

Nicole is venturing awfully far north for a hurricane
Don’t look now, but Hurricane Nicole is making a run for Greenland. Nicole regained hurricane strength on Saturday, the first Atlantic storm to cross the hurricane threshold at least three times in its life since Hurricane Tomas in 2010 (thanks to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University for researching this statistic and to wunderground member Oxfordvalley for updating it]. Nicole has stubbornly retained its warm-core characteristics well north of the tropics, making it to 41°N as of 5 am EDT Monday. Nicole was heading north-northeast at about 9 mph and should accelerate in that direction. Eventually, Nicole will become a cold-core system, although that transition may happen extremely far to the north. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Nicole will become a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday. However, a phase-space diagram produced by Robert Hart (Florida State University) for Nicole on Sunday, October 16, suggested that Nicole would remain a warm-core system (though increasingly asymmetric) until Thursday. On Thursday morning, the NHC forecast has Nicole as a post-tropical cyclone located between Greenland and Iceland, less than 70 miles from the Arctic Circle. Even then, Nicole should still be a powerful storm, with a surface pressure below 970 millibars and peak winds on the order of 60 mph. After Nicole finally dissipates somewhere near Greenland, its core of warm, moist air will continue into the Arctic, where the extent of sea ice is at its lowest mid-October level for any year on record except 2007 and 2012.

One of the few potential analogs for Nicole is Hurricane Faith (1966), which was still classified as a Category 1 hurricane at latitude 61.1°N, the furthest-north position of any tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. Faith also carved out the longest track of any Atlantic hurricane on record.


Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Nicole as of 1245Z (8:45 am EDT) Monday, October 17, 2016.


Figure 5. NHC forecast for Hurricane Nicole as of 0900Z (5:00 am EDT) Monday, October 17, 2016. Although Nicole is predicted to maintain hurricane-strength winds through Tuesday and tropical-storm-strength winds through Thursday, the National Hurricane Center predicts it will be a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday.

Disturbance near Bahamas may develop later this week
An area of disturbed weather that lingered over the Bahamas over the weekend continued to fester on Monday morning. NHC gives the area only a 20% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by Wednesday, but a 50% chance by Saturday. The GFS, European, and UKMET models all showed at least modest development of this system by late in the week, as do most members of the GFS and Euro ensemble runs from 00Z Monday. If a tropical or subtropical cyclone does form, it will likely angle northwest but then get swept out to sea by the strong front crossing the U.S. this week.

Mid-October heat sweeping across the central, eastern U.S. this week
It’s not every October that Dodge City, Kansas, gets up to 99°F. In fact, until Sunday, the city had never recorded a temperature that high in any October. The same intense jet stream that brought high winds and tornadic storms to the Pacific Northwest (see below) helped to force air downward over the central and southern Great Plains, leading to an oddly scorching weekend of clear skies and summer-like highs. In records going all the way back to 1873, Dodge City’s previous latest 99°F was on September 29, 1994. Its previous high for this late in the season was 94°F.

Amarillo, Texas, rocketed to 98°F on Sunday, its hottest reading on record for so late in the year after 99°F on October 3, 2000. A few readings over the Southern Plains managed to top 100°F, including 101°F at Borger, TX (another all-time monthly high) and an amazing 102°F at the town of Slapout, OK (see Figure 4 below). Breaking a monthly high is noteworthy in itself, but it’s especially impressive to do so right in the middle of a transition-season month like October.


Figure 6. High temperatures across Oklahoma on Sunday, October 16, 2016. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.


Both Amarillo and Dodge City may soar into the upper 90s again on Monday before a strong front moves through the Southern Plains. Ahead of this front, warm air will surge northeastward, plastering most of the eastern U.S. with unseasonably warm air for mid-October. Temperatures could reach the mid-80s as far north as Albany, NY, by Tuesday. Dozens of daily record highs are likely this week, and a few more locations could notch their warmest readings ever so late in the season. Among those are St. Louis, MO, where 92°F is possible on Monday (current record 94°F on October 11, 1963, followed by 90°F on October 30, 1950) and Louisville, KY, which may hit 89°F on Tuesday (current record 89°F on October 16, 1946, followed by 88°F on October 21, 1953).


Figure 7. After temperatures moderate later this week, another surge of above-average temperatures is likely to spread across most of the contiguous U.S. during the 6-to-10-day period from next Saturday, October 22, through Wednesday, October 26, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.


Big wind in Pacific Northwest spares Seattle, Portland
The much-feared prospect of a destructive windstorm failed to materialize across Oregon and Washington this past weekend. The surface low tracking near the coast on Saturday (containing the remnants of Typhoon Songda) ended up deepening to an impressively low 969 millibars near the northwest tip of Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. However, its track was farther northwest than expected, keeping the strongest winds away from the Seattle and Portland metropolitan areas. Even so, more than 10,000 customers lost electricity across the Puget Sound area, as wind gusts topping 40 mph blew down numerous trees and branches. Gusts in Oregon reached as high as 102 mph atop Marys Peak and 55 mph at Portland International Airport. Heavy rains extended as far south into California as the Northern Sierra Nevada and even the Santa Cruz Mountains south of San Francisco (as much as 11.33” fell there).

Chastened by the weaker-than-expected storm in the Pacific Northwest, National Weather Service forecasters took pains to explain what happened. “Yes, our forecast did not turn out as predicted. We are not pleased about it either,” said the NWS/Seattle in a Facebook post on Sunday. NWS/Portland filed a similar Facebook post, explaining that the surface low was significantly weaker than expected as it passed near the Oregon coast. The office also noted that a secondary surface low, unpredicted by models, appears to have pulled energy away from the main low.

A rare significant tornado in Oregon
The weekend storm in Oregon was partially upstaged by a different kind of wind. A sizable tornadic waterspout swept onshore from the Pacific Ocean into the town of Manzanita at around 8:20 am PDT Friday morning (see embedded video at bottom; despite the caption that mentions lightning, the flashes you will see are transformers popping). Though its onshore path was just 0.7 miles long and about 700 feet wide, the tornado was rated as an EF2 twister, with a preliminary estimate of peak winds at 125 - 130 mph. No injuries were reported, although a number of structures were damaged. Another waterspout moved onshore near the town of Oceanside, OR, about 40 minutes later.

The NWS/Portland office issued 10 tornado warnings on Friday, only 3 less than the office issued in the entire 30 years from 1986 to 2015! According to the Tornado History Project, Oregon recorded a total of 106 tornadoes from December 1951 to April 2015. Only six of those were rated as significant (F2/EF2 or stronger).

We’ll be back with more on Tuesday, including our summary of global climate for September.

Bob Henson


Figure 8. An officer walks past debris on Laneda Avenue in Manzanita, Oregon, after a tornado moved into town on Friday morning, October 14, 2016. Image credit: Danny Miller/Daily Astorian via AP.


Hurricane Heat High Wind Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson
Earth Atmo 2.0 is flexing.







Team members prepare the Advanced Base Line Imager, the primary optical instrument, for installation on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) inside the Astrotech payload processing facility in Titusville, Florida near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. GOES-R will be the first satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA GOES Satellites. The spacecraft is to launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket in November.
Trying again....

September was very warm for us in Chicagoland.
S&^$&^!!!

LOL, oh well. Here is the link to the pic....

Link
I have to go to work. See y'all later.
Thanks for the update.
#beautifulplanet. Click picture to enlarge - a lot.

Left : Sarika. Right : Haima. Screenshot (Oct.17, 0800 UTC). Source : RAMMB-CIRA / Himawari-8.
If you have enough time and bandwidth, follow this link to load the full disk, insanely high-res picture (file size : 17Mo). It might take several minutes to load even with a speedy connection (because of server limits), but it's worth it... Otherwise follow the first link if you want to see lower res / more recent pics.
Then, there's always NOAA tropical floaters for the latest (fast loading) pictures of tropical systems.
Quoting 2. Patrap:

Earth Atmo 2.0 is flexing.







How long until 3.0 drops?
Thank you sir!
Thanks Bob. That Dodge City, KS record really stands out to me; for a station with their length of record, to be setting a monthly high temperature record for October halfway through the month, is insane.
The media really is a special kind of stupid aren't they? the ABC news twitter video above in the blog states...

"Video captures lightning strike as tornado rips through Manzanita, Oregon."
4:00 PM - 14 Oct 2016

We all know it was a power flash of transformers blowing out. And then they wonder why the people are stupid....because YOU the media propaganda instigating idiots that you are, define stupid, because you report false information and not actual facts of the world we live in.

Low 90s yesterday in SE TX was like summer this weekend.
Quoting 9. ACSeattle:


How long until 3.0 drops?


When 3.0 drops so does the human species. I hope 3.0 is a long way off...
Nicole has surpassed Gaston in terms of ACE, at 24.425 (Gaston 24.2925). It has now generated more ACE than any other 2016 Atlantic storm besides Matthew (47.995). 2016 season total ACE (as of 1500Z today) is 124.6075, and by the time Nicole is post-tropical, the number will approach the 2011 total of 126.2175 and the 2012 total of 130.1125.
Quoting 5. ChiThom:

September was very warm for us in Chicagoland.


It was for us in DC also. My cool season plants (broccoli and lettuce) are two to three weeks behind because of this heat.. good big thick crunchy lettuce late this week (finally) and broccoli, not till the last days of October. Peas are a total loss. With short days such warmth does not do much for warm season stuff, tomatoes get diseases from the heavy dews and long nights and corn tassels early and short and also gets leaf rusts and blights. Peppers and beans are favored though and I'm still getting a lot of delicious limas after poor set due to heat in July made me think it would be a bad year for them.

Four hot days in DC likely this week starting today. Records may be exceeded, record highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 80s.
Thanks, RitaEvac, for noting the "lightning" caption in the video. I've added mention of the transformer flashes in the text just above the video.
Quoting 15. georgevandenberghe:



It was for us in DC also. My cool season plants (broccoli and lettuce) are two to three weeks behind because of this heat.. good big thick crunchy lettuce late this week (finally) and broccoli, not till the last days of October. Peas are a total loss. With short days such warmth does not do much for warm season stuff, tomatoes get diseases from the heavy dews and long nights and corn tassels early and short and also gets leaf rusts and blights. Peppers and beans are favored though and I'm still getting a lot of delicious limas after poor set due to heat in July made me think it would be a bad year for them.

Four hot days in DC likely this week starting today. Records may be exceeded, record highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 80s.


Snow is flying today in South Central Alaska... although for the most part the Anchorage "bowl" isn't getting any, but everywhere around it is.

Sorry your garden isn't all positive, but it still sounds like you got a lot of food out of it.
Quoting 16. BobHenson:

Thanks, RitaEvac, for noting the "lightning" caption in the video. I've added mention of the transformer flashes in the text just above the video.


Sorry for being so blunt, but the media out there really needs to fact check their work and what they say. There's enough misinformation going on out there as it is ;)
It would be something if Nicole mantained a warm core and hit Greenland as a tropical storm...
25W/STY/H/C3
While Nicole is not expected to remain a tropical cyclone, various models, especially the GFS, indicate it will retain a weak warm core for at least 48 hours.
Typhoon Sarika may bring more rain to central Vietnam, recently flooded.

Extreme Vietnam Floods Footage Compilation 2016 (Oct 14, 2016)
Quoting 11. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Bob. That Dodge City, KS record really stands out to me; for a station with their length of record, to be setting a monthly high temperature record for October halfway through the month, is insane.


Maybe, pardon me, not 'insane':

It's called "Abrupt Climate Change in Progress".

Hang on to your hat!

It's only gunna get more and more interestinger.

Fun time for weather geeks to be incarnate; Mighty harsh for just about everyone and everything else.
The Guardian:

"Slow-motion wrecks: how thawing permafrost is destroying Arctic cities"

Link
Matthew and Nicole, what a couple. Just an unreal way to bring the season to a soon close. This AOI in Bahamas held on to the ridiculous tail of Nicole for a long time and blobbed up real nice. Thinking this is the remnant of Matthew that's lurking the Bahamas again. Know it's not, but the way those two interacted with one another was remarkable.
Quoting 18. RitaEvac:



Sorry for being so blunt, but the media out there really needs to fact check their work and what they say. There's enough misinformation going on out there as it is ;)



Coming from OK, I'm used to seeing tornado warnings pop up on-air on the maps all the time. It was amusing watching the local forecaster talk about the NWS warnings. She was really flustered/nervous at one point. "I'm not from the mid-west, I'm not used to this". The audio of the video mentioned flashes, not strikes. They also realized they needed to get out of the area quickly, not hang around to get in trouble.

I am personally glad the storm was not as fierce as forecast. We had several fir branches down in our yard (6" diameter) and gusts only to 37 mph. Was out clearing a downspout when a big gust came through. A bit nerve-wracking watching just a branch fall from 80', that would be considered a full size (Bradford Pear) tree in OK. Only warning was a few creaks and then watched the branch fall, about 30' away. I figured my gutters would be fine on their own after that.
Quoting 26. DeepSeaRising:

Matthew and Nicole, what a couple. Just an unreal way to bring the season to a soon close. This AOI in Bahamas held on to the ridiculous tail of Nicole for a long time and blobbed up real nice. Thinking this is the remnant of Matthew that's lurking the Bahamas again. Know it's not, but the way those two interacted with one another was remarkable.


The season is not over.

The season is not over.


Repeat daily until early December.

GWV ( experienced Kate TLH late November 1985)
Quoting 17. Dakster:



Snow is flying today in South Central Alaska... although for the most part the Anchorage "bowl" isn't getting any, but everywhere around it is.

Sorry your garden isn't all positive, but it still sounds like you got a lot of food out of it.


I'm not complaining and (as is true in much of science) we learn more from the problems than the successes.

You do not live in D.C.That is called false advertising.He lives across the line in the College Park/Riverdale area in Maryland.Coming from a true Washingtonian it will feel more like early September than mid October.Our stretch of beautiful weather will end Friday when rain and clouds move in.
Quoting 28. georgevandenberghe:



The season is not over.

The season is not over.


Repeat daily until early December.

GWV ( experienced Kate TLH late November 1985)


It is very difficult to get storms that form in the southern and eastern Caribbean and Atlantic to reach the CONUS. The unreliable Canadian model does show something forming and racing up the east coast however, none of the other models show this. You have to have something form close to land this late in the season. GOM is shut down right now with consistent troughs moving in. Homegrown would be the only way to get anything in the GOM. Even then, it would be sheared apart.

I agree that we may see one or two more named systems this season but as far as a pure tropical system impact to the CONUS, I give it less than a 15 percent chance.

Link
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 1010 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 827 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 808 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 743 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 709 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MARQUETTE MI - KMQT 642 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREEN BAY WI - KGRB 416 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MARQUETTE MI - KMQT 326 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MARQUETTE MI - KMQT 249 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 559 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RENO NV - KREV 238 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RENO NV - KREV 1148 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN FRANCISCO CA - KMTR 1005 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Severe Weather Page The Nexlab Text Page
Thank you for the lunch read, Doc.
Quoting 28. georgevandenberghe:



The season is not over.

The season is not over.


Repeat daily until early December.

GWV ( experienced Kate TLH late November 1985)


Yes I noticed that too. What makes anyone think that the party is over...?

Not talking just tropical systems. Anyone remember the 'no-name' storm of '93?

I am not qualified, scientifically, to prognosticate; But it seems to me that anyone with, say, a 4th grade education, and a couple of atoms of honesty, can see that this world is heading for a period of climatological 'whoops-a-daisey'.

Quoting 9. ACSeattle:


How long until 3.0 drops?


Welcome to the Anthropocene
99L near the Bahamas.

The season is not over ;)

We might see Otto and Paula, possibly more named storms .. before the season ends.
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:

You do not live in D.C.That is called false advertising.He lives across the line in the College Park/Riverdale area in Maryland.Coming from a true Washingtonian it will feel more like early September than mid October.Our stretch of beautiful weather will end Friday when rain and clouds move in.


It is true my nights are significantly cooler than most of the District due to an inner suburban, rather than urban core, location and the additional reality that my location is both flat and fairly open and so fairly frosty. My former tree shaded home in Hyattsville was much warmer at night.

The April 6 freeze that destroyed my wisteria did not destroy wisteria in the section of the District I had to drive through to Georgetown in early to mid April and overall I noted much less freeze effect on this route than at home and in my immediate neighborhood.
Quoting 15. georgevandenberghe:



It was for us in DC also. My cool season plants (broccoli and lettuce) are two to three weeks behind because of this heat.. good big thick crunchy lettuce late this week (finally) and broccoli, not till the last days of October. Peas are a total loss. With short days such warmth does not do much for warm season stuff, tomatoes get diseases from the heavy dews and long nights and corn tassels early and short and also gets leaf rusts and blights. Peppers and beans are favored though and I'm still getting a lot of delicious limas after poor set due to heat in July made me think it would be a bad year for them.

Four hot days in DC likely this week starting today. Records may be exceeded, record highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 80s.


ahhh but koch has the answer.. their chemicals can fix it..
Up here in the capital district of New York we are unseasonably warm. Currently in the mid 70's about 10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow is supposed to be very warm for us, high 82 with a prejected low of 62. If those temps come to fruition they would basically be our average highs and lows for mid-late July. Have yet to experience a cold blast but afraid when it comes its going To be pretty harsh.
Bahama's system NHC
Link

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent western
Atlantic waters is associated with a broad surface low. Upper-level
winds are expected to remains unfavorable for significant
development during the next day or two, but they could become more
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday
when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
Locally heavy rainfall over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos should diminish by tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Quoting 43. masiello3:

Up here in the capital district of New York we are unseasonably warm. Currently in the mid 70's about 10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow is supposed to be very warm for us, high 82 with a prejected low of 62. If those temps come to fruition they would basically be our average highs and lows for mid-late July. Have yet to experience a cold blast but afraid when it comes its going To be pretty harsh.


You've had your first freeze of autumn though haven't you? I've had ground frost (no plant damage) twice in College Park Md in the open field where I walk my dogs, 10/11 and 10/15.




DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992016) 20161017 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 72.5W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 99DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Looks like Haima is missing on Levi s site, unless it miraculously "evaporated".
Climate Central, Oct. 17 : September an Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months.
"According to NASA, 11 of the past 12 months have been record warm (for perspective, the last record-cold month was December 1916)." GISS director Gavin Schmidt : "We continue to stress that while monthly rankings are newsworthy, they are not nearly as important as long-term trends."
"I think I can, I think I can, I think I can!"
Hurricane Nicole is The Little Engine That Could...


Quoting 46. georgevandenberghe:



You've had your first freeze of autumn though haven't you? I've had ground frost (no plant damage) twice in College Park Md in the open field where I walk my dogs, 10/11 and 10/15.
We got down to 32 for the first time last Friday. Doesn't look like we'll reach that mark for atleast another week, lows for the next couple days are 50 and 60 which is just stupidly warm for this time of year. Looks like we'll get down to the mid thirties for lows past four days but no hint of bellow 32 for the near future. If people covered their plants the growing season is still occuring up here.
Looks like we will have Otto before the weekend. 2016 has been active in the Atlantic. After Otto I think we have a chance at 1-2 more storms before the season ends. West Caribbean is where to watch.
This weekend at the house was an August/September day. Low 90s and greenery to boot. Can you see the CoCoRaHS gauge on the fence and the PWS in the back corner in the shade?

54. N3EG
Does "Haima" mean "Son Of Haiyan" ?
Who would have thought a week ago that anything could develop near the Bahamas??


Before the season 115-125 ACE was my prediction. Underdone. We are about to pass that. Very dangerous and deadly year, deadliest Hurricane season since 2005. We may be most active with ACE since 2010 and certainly will be in top 20 all time this year.
Quoting 56. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Before the season 115-125 ACE was my prediction. Underdone. We are about to pass that. Very dangerous and deadly year, deadliest Hurricane season since 2005. We may be most active with ACE since 2010 and certainly will be in top 20 all time this year.

I predicted 16-7-3 with an ACE near 130. A lot of people were quick to write this season off between July and September due to unfavorable conditions in the MDR. It only takes a small window of low shear to change everything. So many people on here thought "the active era was over" but after nearly reaching the ACE levels of the very active seasons in the 1995-2012 era, I don't think so.
Quoting 55. Grothar:

Who would have thought a week ago that anything could develop near the Bahamas??





IF this thing was at 15N I would be happy...
Quoting 54. N3EG:

Does "Haima" mean "Son Of Haiyan" ?


Apparently it's Finnish for 'pancreas,' according to our friend elioe. Wonder if it's similar in Hungarian or Estonian...
Quoting 39. Stormwatch247:

99L near the Bahamas.

The season is not over ;)

We might see Otto and Paula, possibly more named storms .. before the season ends.

It feels weird to use 99l again after the little storm that could.
Quoting 59. win1gamegiantsplease:



Apparently it's Finnish for 'pancreas,' according to our friend elioe. Wonder if it's similar in Hungarian or Estonian...


According to Wiktionary, in Estonian it's "kõhunääre" and in Hungarian "hasnyálmirigy". Origin of the word "haima" in Finnish is unknown.
Quoting 41. hydrus:



Sneaky system.
Quoting 37. MontanaZephyr:



Yes I noticed that too. What makes anyone think that the party is over...?

Not talking just tropical systems. Anyone remember the 'no-name' storm of '93?

I am not qualified, scientifically, to prognosticate; But it seems to me that anyone with, say, a 4th grade education, and a couple of atoms of honesty, can see that this world is heading for a period of climatological 'whoops-a-daisey'.



IMO, the season is never over. Once one ends, another begins!
Houston just shattered its rainfall record for an 18-month period

"This post summarizes the historically wet period from the spring of 2015 through the summer of 2016 for the greater Houston area. Not only did the region set a record for total rainfall, it also experienced an astounding six significant rainfall events in just a little more than 12 months.

Based upon data from the National Weather Service, the 18-month period from March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016, ranks as the wettest 18-month period on record for the city of Houston. In fact, the table below shows that each of the top-five wettest 18 month periods in Houston came during the last two years. Prior to 2015, Houston’s wettest consecutive 18 months had yielded a total of 106.68 inches. The March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016 period annihilated that record by more than a foot of rain, with a total of 119.77 inches."

Great summary at the link with details, I always head there when any significant weather event is forecast for the Houston area.

As to the speculation on such dramatic rain fall events, it's almost like there is something to this whole Global Warming thing everyone keeps yapping about....
festering system gonna need a few days to come together away ward mover ocean storm

99L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 59. win1gamegiantsplease:


Apparently it's Finnish for 'pancreas,' according to our friend elioe. Wonder if it's similar in Hungarian or Estonian...

In ancient Greek "haima" means "blood" (see "hematology") --- hopefully not a bad sign, huh ...

In fact the naming of the typhoon is less menacing: "haima" is Chinese and means "seahorse".
99l is gonna pull off a nicole, sort of. They both started out at low percentages and were basically dismissed by the community. Then their percentages creeped upwards and before you knew it, they were named systems!
Also whats with the wave off of africa? Looks pretty good. Would like to see shear and dry air map for it.
99L...

25W/STY/H/C3


25W is very near C4 status once that eye gets the perfect circle
its a go this one goes all the way too the end of the scale
73. 7544
Quoting 71. GeoffreyWPB:

99L...



its all moving east where does the nhc get it will be moving n to nw is the flow suppose to change soon idk
Quoting 69. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

99l is gonna pull off a nicole, sort of. They both started out at low percentages and were basically dismissed by the community. Then their percentages creeped upwards and before you knew it, they were named systems!
Also whats with the wave off of africa? Looks pretty good. Would like to see shear and dry air map for it.

SAL is virtually nonexistent, waters are sufficiently warm and shear is only moderately strong in the MDR, but for some reason I'm not exactly sure about, the Cape Verde region rarely sees storms after October 1, and Cape Verde storms are almost unheard of after October 15. I don't really see any "unfavorable conditions", but for some reason October Cape Verde storms are rare. But nonetheless, this is quite a nice looking wave for October 17:
Quoting 54. N3EG:

Does "Haima" mean "Son Of Haiyan" ?

Quoting 61. elioe:



According to Wiktionary, in Estonian it's "khunre" and in Hungarian "hasnylmirigy". Origin of the word "haima" in Finnish is unknown.


it may mean pancreas in Finnish, but in Chinese it means seahorse or "hippocampus" or "the black horse of the herd" (i.e. "the black sheep of the herd" = "troublemaker"] depending upon the emphasis placed upon which syllable..
Does anyone see the teeth on this thing? ( JAWS BACKGROUND MUSIC).....

Quoting 58. CaribBoy:



IF this thing was at 15N I would be happy...


Not me, my island would be getting slammed AGAIN!
Quoting 19. Envoirment:

It would be something if Nicole mantained a warm core and hit Greenland as a tropical storm...


That would be VERY Interesting, although its HIGHLY unlikely.
Whoops! Today's post wasn't meant to be a "guess the author" puzzle. I put my byline at bottom, per usual, but failed to change the Jeff Masters default at top. Apologies for any confusion...
And here in OK, not only do we have the temps, but we have a blistering wind accompanying it.

Wind Speeds


Gusts
Quoting 79. BobHenson:

Whoops! Today's post wasn't meant to be a "guess the author" puzzle. I put my byline at bottom, per usual, but failed to change the Jeff Masters default at top. Apologies for any confusion...


Just noticed it, thanks!
Quoting 80. daddyjames:

And here in OK, not only do we have the temps, but we have a blistering wind accompanying it.

Wind Speeds


Gusts



"blistering winds"
I would call the wind "refreshing" in temperatures that high.

Calm winds would be so much worse and more uncomfortable.
I don't understand how a small island in the middle of the Atlantic ocean can attract storm like that :/

2016 is very boring at my place.

Quoting 62. Weatherfan1013:


Sneaky system.


Fish or Bermuda storm again...
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



"blistering winds"
I would call the wind "refreshing" in temperatures that high.

Calm winds would be so much worse and more uncomfortable.


When it comes out of the south/southwest - it is hot. Definitely not refreshing.

Edit: Think of being in a gigantic hair "blowdryer" and you will understand how it feels.
Quoting 77. Xandtar:



Not me, my island would be getting slammed AGAIN!


What island? ...
Quoting 84. CaribBoy:



Fish or Bermuda storm again...

not sure yet a loop maybe
east first then loop back
back door style
see comment 70
it shows what it expects
got to watch as always
Quoting 85. daddyjames:



When it comes out of the south/southwest - it is hot. Definitely not refreshing.


Like a blast furnace. After living in Fort Worth for 10 years, I can tell you there's nothing refreshing about a 40 MPH wind on a 100 degree day.
Quoting 85. daddyjames:



When it comes out of the south/southwest - it is hot. Definitely not refreshing.


May not be "refreshing" like the AC in your car, but
no wind is much worse.
I worked outside in Central Oklahoma as a frame carpenter for many years. Having a nice breeze/wind really helps cool your body down.
Quoting 72. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

25W/STY/H/C3


25W is very near C4 status once that eye gets the perfect circle
its a go this one goes all the way too the end of the scale


Why do you think Haima is still a Cat 3? The JTWC and JMA are in agreement with a low to mid range Cat 4. Dvorak estimates are between T6.0 and T7.0 as well. I would say it is very close to, if not at Cat 5 status now.



However, there seems to be an EWRC going on so it could actually weaken somewhat during the next hours:


Quoting 85. daddyjames:



When it comes out of the south/southwest - it is hot. Definitely not refreshing.

Edit: Think of being in a gigantic hair "blowdryer" and you will understand how it feels.

pea soup fog up here right now on the roof visibility is 0
with the southerly flow tomorrow break the 80's maybe 82 humidex will make it feel 90 92
they already saying tomorrow will be a record day for temps this late in season same as everywhere else south of me
Quoting 74. HurricaneFan:


SAL is virtually nonexistent, waters are sufficiently warm and shear is only moderately strong in the MDR, but for some reason I'm not exactly sure about, the Cape Verde region rarely sees storms after October 1, and Cape Verde storms are almost unheard of after October 15. I don't really see any "unfavorable conditions", but for some reason October Cape Verde storms are rare. But nonetheless, this is quite a nice looking wave for October 17:

Cmc, earlier gFS ensembles, scale based HWRF models indicate that wave to develop.
Fog advisory in effect for:
City of Toronto
Dense fog is affecting the area this afternoon. Reports of visibilities down to 100 metres have been received.

The fog is expected to persist into the evening.
Visibility may be significantly and suddenly reduced to near zero. Travel is expected to be hazardous due to reduced visibility in some locations. If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance.

Fog advisories are issued when near zero visibilities in fog are expected or occurring.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:



May not be "refreshing" like the AC in your car, but
no wind is much worse.
I worked outside in Central Oklahoma as a frame carpenter for many years. Having a nice breeze/wind really helps cool your body down.



True, only because its whipping the sweat off of you before it emerges onto your skin :D. But man, sucks the moisture right out of ya . . .
Quoting 76. 882MB:

Does anyone see the teeth on this thing? ( JAWS BACKGROUND MUSIC).....




Kinda looks as if it is developing that "backpack-like" feature observed in Matthew. Wonder if it has the same setup (convergence of "tradewinds" with the circulation of Haima].
"Nicole regained hurricane strength on Saturday, the first Atlantic storm to cross the hurricane threshold at least three times in its life since Hurricane Ida in 2009"

Didn't Hurricane Tomas (2010) cross that threshold three times as well?

Quoting 90. Carnivorous:



Why do you think Haima is still a Cat 3? The JTWC and JMA are in agreement with a low to mid range Cat 4. Dvorak estimates are between T6.0 and T7.0 as well. I would say it is very close to, if not at Cat 5 status now.



However, there seems to be an EWRC going on so it could actually weaken somewhat during the next hours:




not a perfect eye unenhanced ir
will be soon then 4 and 5
if a EWRC is occurring it will be a high 3 then back too 4 and 5
Light south winds

Quoting 92. HurricaneAndre:

Cmc, earlier gFS ensembles, scale based HWRF models indicate that wave to develop.


Maybe my last chance. But chance is actually very near zero. Will continue to watch... just in case.

Haima today. Still some work to be done with its eyewall.
Very long, detailed and pretty critical read!
Why Isn't the U.S. Better at Predicting Extreme Weather?
Hurricanes like Matthew have laid bare the dirty secret of the National Weather Service: its technologies
and methods are woefully behind the times.
New York Times Magazine, By MICHAEL BEHAR, OCT. 17, 2016

---------------------------

Other news on tropical storms:

Evaluating forecasting models for predicting rainfall from tropical cyclones
Researchers say improved understanding of hurricanes will improve our ability to forecast storms and their impacts
University of Iowa, Public Release: 17-Oct-2016

Ten cyclones predicted for Pacific
Radio New Zealand, 7:37 am on 17 October 2016
Weather agencies around the Pacific say the region can expect about 10 named tropical cyclones over the November to April cyclone period. That is the typical annual number over the past 30 years and the agencies say conditions are likely to be near average over most islands through this time. ...


Ok wave, you can turn NW then NNW but only after 57W.
Quoting 94. daddyjames:



True, only because its whipping the sweat off of you before it emerges onto your skin :D. But man, sucks the moisture right out of ya . . .


I went deep sea fishing in the Gulf of Mexico back in June. We were about 20 miles offshore and it was dead calm with flat seas.
It was so hot trying to fish. I felt like I was going to pass out. Thank God they had an air conditioned section of the boat where you could order food and sit down and eat.

The good news is I didn't see anyone get sea sick that day on the boat. Unlike the time I went deep sea fishing in 8-12 ft swells. Half the people on the boat were hanging over the rails that day.
At this time of advisory...

Haima is a super typhoon now.
Sarika is about to make landfall over Hainan Island.


Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST October 18 2016
=======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haima (925 hPa) located at 14.4N 133.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 15.9N 127.9E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5 Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.6N 122.4E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.9N 117.5E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea

South China Sea
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Sarika (965 hPa) located at 18.0N 111.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 20.0N 109.0E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Gulf Of Tonkin
48 HRS: 21.5N 107.1E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 22.2N 106.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
105. beell
Quoting 80. daddyjames:

And here in OK, not only do we have the temps, but we have a blistering wind accompanying it.

Wind Speeds


Gusts



Years ago, I brought a young lady from way down south to west-central Oklahoma to meet the folks. The wind was ever-present for three straight days. She caught a case of "Prairie Madness" and never returned.

*sigh*...i miss that wind...
gust oh is back that every one loves so march

AL, 99, 2016101718, , BEST, 0, 220N, 725W, 25, 1008, LO

Quoting 105. beell:



Years ago, I brought a young lady from way down south to west central Oklahoma to meet the folks. The wind was ever-present for three straight days. She caught a case of "Prairie Madness" and never returned.


When I first moved here we had several days like this in the Spring. What amazed me was that you could not escape it. No matter what side of a building you went to, it seemed as if the wind was coming directly at you. Really irritating if you are a smoker (like I was) and can't light that #$%%$% cigarette. That about drove me "mad". :D
Quoting 75. daddyjames:




it may mean pancreas in Finnish, but in Chinese it means seahorse or "hippocampus" or "the black horse of the herd" (i.e. "the black sheep of the herd" = "troublemaker"] depending upon the emphasis placed upon which syllable..

The Chinese is obviously more plausible since storm names draw from languages in the region of the storms.

Got some Rain this morning. How much remains to be calculated. I don't have a rain gauge here.
CoCoRaHS has a trace this morning so will have to see. Indian Hills reported .05 so I am hoping to
see that amount from CoCoRaHS around the corner from me in the AM. It has only been
162 days since last measurable rain here.

Tropical air that surged northward just west of Hawaii has now entrained into the Pacific jet, but there is no mention of anything developing from this. The Euro model has wet weather returning to the West Coast by next Monday, but shows nothing significant until then.
113. beell
Quoting 73. 7544:


its all moving east where does the nhc get it will be moving n to nw is the flow suppose to change soon idk


For all of this to come together, a couple of things have to happen.

Present convection is supported by some upper level divergence ADDED: and diffluence on the east side of the upper trough axis.


10/17 18Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds
Upper trough axis represented by black dashed line.
General area of upper divergence by red oval.


Most likely location for surface development at the present time circled.





10/17 12Z GFS 500 mb heights, winds, vorticity @ 36 hrs
Mis-shaped (in the GFS) mid-level cut-off low circled in red.


To get a sub-tropical system, this will have to gain at least a mid-level reflection and morph into a closed and/or cut-off low-from there...stack a surface low underneath. The cut-off will then be somewhat trapped beneath a rebuilding ridge centered over the central Gulf Coast. Weak steering-drifting.

All of this would probably need to happen before the next trough. Not to say we won't see some type of notable weather, but it might not make ST status.
25W Haima (WPac) :

(...) A 171638Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SOLID INNER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
SECONDARY OUTER RING FORMING WITH A 35 NM RADIUS, SUGGESTING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS UNDERWAY. (...)
From JTWC : Typhoon 25W (Haima) Warning #13, issued at 17 / 2100Z.
JTWC website link (for the latest, complete warnings).
rapid scan Sat of Haima - first frames currently (night) dark

Link
Quoting 80. daddyjames:

And here in OK, not only do we have the temps, but we have a blistering wind accompanying it.

Wind Speeds


Gusts

Glad you mentioned the winds. I was gonna. Not comparable to summer. Low humidity; critical fire danger in NW OK. Blowing steady 30-32s here. Gusts nearing 40 mph. I'm lovin' it (barring fires). But then I've been called the black horse of my family.

Static image. Click it to see current conditions from OK Mesonet
Quoting 96. Oxfordvalley:

"Nicole regained hurricane strength on Saturday, the first Atlantic storm to cross the hurricane threshold at least three times in its life since Hurricane Ida in 2009"

Didn't Hurricane Tomas (2010) cross that threshold three times as well?




Great catch! Indeed, Tomas did. I'll let Phil K. know.
Ps. dj,
Oh, I see over near Stillwater the dew point temps are higher - so maybe feels more like summer.
this area of the site seems too be borken has any one have the same issue ? it seems like the forecast dos not want to lode or any thing on this page this needs too be fix

Link
Quoting 119. thetwilightzone:

this area of the site seems too be borken has any one have the same issue ? it seems like the forecast dos not want to lode or any thing on this page this needs too be fix

Link


It's working for me.
Monday
10/17
66 | 41 °F
Monday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear. Lows overnight in the low 40s.
Monday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low 41F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
10/18
69 | 43 °F
Tuesday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Generally sunny. High 69F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Clear skies. Low 43F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
10/19
72 | 46 °F
Wednesday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
Plentiful sunshine. High 72F. Winds light and variable.
Wednesday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in
A mostly clear sky. Low 46F. Winds light and variable.
121. beell
Quoting 119. thetwilightzone:

this area of the site seems too be borken has any one have the same issue ? it seems like the forecast dos not want to lode or any thing on this page this needs too be fix

Link




Tried a couple locations, Taz. Top part of the page worked. Just the little rotating rainbow for all the rest.
Don't use this feature much but I believe there are hundreds of thousands of folks who do.

working fine here....
Quoting 121. beell:





Tried a couple locations, Taz. Top part of the page worked. Just the little rotating rainbow for all the rest.
Don't use this feature much but I believe there are hundreds of thousands of folks who do.


hmm it seems like it works for some but not for others any one else with this issue ?
I am in NW Georgia, but my name originated while a Pastor in Crestline Ohio. Since things are in the process of changing i thought i would ask some who may be from the Cleveland/Mansfield area. When do you think you will get your 1st snow this year. I was seeing where Fairbanks Alaska was behind in getting their 1st...so i would think winter might be late in arriving in Ohio also. I remember when i was there it actually flurried a bit around Halloween, and we had our first good snow in early November/mid November.
Just wondering what potential impacts Nicole may have to ice sheets in Greenland. Any guesses?


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nicole, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. A broad area of low pressure located near the southeastern Bahamas
is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms over the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and
Bermuda. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but could become more conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation on Wednesday or Thursday
when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
I'm sure this has already been posted, but in case not, NY Times piece on the NWS and difficulty it has predicting "extreme" weather:


LINK
Rain will fall atop the sheets. The precipation will then freeze resulting in increased depth and expansion..
Quoting 125. sharqi:

Just wondering what potential impacts Nicole may have to ice sheets in Greenland. Any guesses?

99l is a big ole flop
Evening All. This latest system needs to go east... Bahamians need a break from rain in their houses ... Yesterday we saw rai rates of close to an inch per hour for several hours at a time, and it rained until at least 5 p.m. over much of New Providence. I'm hoping it doesn't circle back....
131. beell
Quoting 127. Attirex:

I'm sure this has already been posted, but in case not, NY Times piece on the NWS and difficulty it has predicting "extreme" weather:


LINK




From twitterdom.

Just so you guys know, I'm reading as much as I can, but posting infrequently due to limited internet access. I will let you know when I'm up and running.
Quoting 129. Hester122:

99l is a big ole flop


That's what they thought about 99L in August, before it became Hermine and was the first hurricane to hit FL since Wilma.
Good Evening WU,

I'm checking in from Columbus, Ohio. Thankfully, I was able to fly out of Seattle Saturday morning just before the storm so I can take care of my grandmother. Today was too hot. It over 80F today, the average is 65F. In fact, our forecast low (67F) is higher than the average high!

I'll be in Ohio for at least the next two weeks, and I can not wait for it to cool down. Which thankfully should happen this weekend.

As for the storm, as mentioned in the blog post, it wasn't that big a deal. My husband reported that the lights flickered twice, but never went out. All the trees in the back yard remain vertical, which is awesome. Especially given the fact that some of the Douglas Firs in the backyard are old growth, and are roughly 3 - 4 feet diameter...
Quoting 123. thetwilightzone:



hmm it seems like it works for some but not for others any one else with this issue ?


Me too TwighlightTaz ....been that way for a couple of weeks now
Quoting 125. sharqi:

Just wondering what potential impacts Nicole may have to ice sheets in Greenland. Any guesses?
She will melt them. On a more serious note there is a debate happening right now between U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and his running mate candidate for U.S Senator Patrick Murphy. They are discussing the topic of Climate Change. Coming from the Republican Party I'm surprised to know that Rubio is 100% in favor of mitigation and in favor of alternative forms of energy. The moderator was stating how there are problems with salt water intrusion even on a dry day along Miami Beach. Rubio tied that to King Tide, which I also understand is happening currently. He is also blaming Georgia for stealing water from Apalachee Bay and the Oysterman Village. Murphy, stated the reefs are dying in the Florida Keys from coral bleaching and in the panhandle the oysters are dying from changes to the fresh water flow. Rubio is blaming the algae bloom in Lake Okeechobee from the nutrient rich fresh water flow from rivers flowing in from the north and dumping into the Lake and that sea level rise has nothing to do with the algae. A statistic I found very concerning is approximately 400 Billion dollars in property are at risk from sea level rise across Miami.
Quoting 138. Grothar:



I wish the NHC would issue a tropical storm warning for Greenland and continue issuing advisories on Nicole as a post-tropical cyclone. That would be funny to witness a "Greenland landfall"
Congressman visits king tide flooding in Fort Lauderdale to call for environmental investment

Salt water from the king tides quickly swamped the streets of the isles neighborhoods in Fort Lauderdale on Monday morning. 

The water's depth, which ranged from several inches to roughly a foot in some parts after the 9:41 a.m. high tide, brought mullet fish into the streets as the Intracoastal Waterway rose slightly above some residents' boat docks.

Standing just off Southeast 25th Avenue, south of East Las Olas Boulevard, Congressman Ted Deutch, D-Fla., said he was surprised by how swiftly the water poured out of the storm drains to deluge the streets and sidewalks.

"If standing in this water on a beautiful South Florida morning doesn't tell us it's time to start investing in environmental infrastructure to protect our communities, then I don't think anything will," Deutch said.

Accompanied by other public officials as well as academics from Florida Atlantic University and others who live and work in the areas affected by king tides, Deutch said a number of factors, including climate change and sea level rise, are contributing to more severe tidal flooding.

It was all part of a discussion in which elected officials, experts, as well as members of the local business community talked about how to keep the water from the king tides off of South Florida's streets.

City officials in Delray Beach also met Monday night to discuss king tides with the public. They may normally hold the talks during high tides in knee-high water, but this year chose to hold an event at Saltwater Brewery, as part of an outreach effort to attract younger audiences.

"We need the younger generation to understand this," said Ana Puszkin-Chevlin, event organizer and Delray Beach's sustainability officer.

King tides are seasonal higher-than-usual tides, and according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "occur when the orbits and alignment of the Earth, moon, and sun combine to produce the greatest tidal effects of the year."

Colin Polsky, a professor of geosciences at FAU, said part of the solution is investing in the kinds of infrastructure most residents don't see or think about, such as valves, drains, berms, sea walls and pipes.

"We built the city next to the ocean before," Polsky said. "We just need to redesign it, redevelop it." 

"You have to connect the discussion of climate change with the discussion of infrastructure," Deutch said.

In Fort Lauderdale, from the balcony of the third-floor condo he shares with his wife, John Roth, 71, watched as a stand-up paddleboarder glided down Sunset Drive.

"I believe climate change is playing a role," Roth said

A 25-year resident of the neighborhood, he said he has never seen the annual high tides increase as fast as they have in the past 10 years. But he said many of the residents in the area, like he and his wife, like to be near the water because they either own boats, enjoy watersports or both. He said the flooding wasn't enough to cause him to consider moving.

Nick Aumen, a regional science adviser for the U.S. Geological Survey, said it's hard to see a noticeable difference in the tide levels year over year. He said the increase becomes apparent over the long term.

"One of the longest sea level rise guages is in Key West, and over the last 100 years the water has come up approximately 10 inches," Aumen said. "And what we're concerned about is that increase is getting faster."

By noon Monday, water still remained in the streets of the isles neighborhoods but it was gradually receding.

Several dozen residents attended Monday's king tides meeting in Delray Beach. Evelyn Ross and her husband Joe, who recently moved from New York, came to learn more about what it's like to live in an area prone to flooding.

"I was very interested in what kind of an impact 5 miles from the beach would have," she said.

More flooding was expected Monday night when the high tide comes in again about 10 p.m. in Fort Lauderdale. The National Weather Service's Miami forecasting office issued a coastal flood advisory that said flooding was likely in the coastal areas of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Wednesday morning.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, high tide at Port Everglades on Monday night would be at 9:55 p.m. On Tuesday, the high tides there would be 10:32 a.m. and 10:46 p.m.

-------------

So to Grothar, Geoffrey, Camerooski, ChillinintheKeys, and any others in South Florida has the flooding been affecting your neighborhoods?
Quoting 125. sharqi:

Just wondering what potential impacts Nicole may have to ice sheets in Greenland. Any guesses?

If its precip makes it there, which is doubtful, it would snow like crazy, a lot of wet snow.
Assuming your $400 billion dollar figure is correct... Why are you "very concerned"? Oceanfront developers know the risks going in but yet choose to develop on a piece of property that at some is very  likely to suffer catastrophic damage. Many times it's not if, but when. 
Quoting 136. GTstormChaserCaleb:

She will melt them. On a more serious note there is a debate happening right now between U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and his running mate candidate for U.S Senator Patrick Murphy. They are discussing the topic of Climate Change. Coming from the Republican Party I'm surprised to know that Rubio is 100% in favor of mitigation and in favor of alternative forms of energy. The moderator was stating how there are problems with salt water intrusion even on a dry day along Miami Beach. Rubio tied that to King Tide, which I also understand is happening currently. He is also blaming Georgia for stealing water from Apalachee Bay and the Oysterman Village. Murphy, stated the reefs are dying in the Florida Keys from coral bleaching and in the panhandle the oysters are dying from changes to the fresh water flow. Rubio is blaming the algae bloom in Lake Okeechobee from the nutrient rich fresh water flow from rivers flowing in from the north and dumping into the Lake and that sea level rise has nothing to do with the algae. A statistic I found very concerning is approximately 400 Billion dollars in property are at risk from sea level rise across Miami.

Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:



So to Grothar, Geoffrey, Camerooski, ChillinintheKeys, and any others in South Florida has the flooding been affecting your neighborhoods?


Yes. I have seen worse flooding, but not simply from tides. It seemed as if the water was simply coming up from the drains. A number of streets were flooded on our isles. Las Olas Blvd had at least 5 inches on the streets.
Quoting 143. Grothar:



Yes. I have seen worse flooding, but not simply from tides. It seemed as if the water was simply coming up from the drains. A number of streets were flooded on our isles. Las Olas Blvd had at least 5 inches on the streets.
Interesting that is right along the New River and taking a look at Gordon Road it looks like it sits on a bridge. By the way the $400 billion figure was thrown out there during the debate, so I would have to fact check that perhaps they were referencing the entire coastline of Florida. I'm not concerned about the development, but the people who live there, especially from the retired ones who wanted to get away from the cold up north to warm weather and beautiful beaches of Florida. You can listen to the debate over again on C-SPAN Radio.
145. beell
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0805 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc, NW Bahamas to Cuba, with a relatively broad base reaching to near 20N80W. The troughing aloft is generating maximum diffluence to the east and inducing a surface trough analyzed from 28N74W to 23N73W. At the base of this surface trough, a 1008 mb surface low looks to have developed, where surface obs from the Grand Turks have reported W to NW winds since this afternoon.
Quoting 144. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Interesting that is right along the New River and taking a look at Gordon Road it looks like it sits on a bridge. By the way the $400 billion figure was thrown out there during the debate, so I would have to fact check that perhaps they were referencing the entire coastline of Florida. I'm not concerned about the development, but the people who live there, especially from the retired ones who wanted to get away from the cold up north to warm weather and beautiful beaches of Florida. You can listen to the debate over again on C-SPAN Radio.


What should be of concern is that this is NOT coastal flooding. There was flooding well inland which is very unusual.
i saw it 1st
Quoting 118. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. dj,
Oh, I see over near Stillwater the dew point temps are higher - so maybe feels more like summer.


Hey BF - yeas it does feel like early summer here. :(
Grothar, the moon had its 3rd closest perigee of the year a day after the full moon this past weekend. To watch--on November 14, 2016, the moon will be the closest to the earth since January 26, 1948 and on the day of the full moon. The moon will be 1,936 km closer than during the full moon of the king tides last October, and the sun will be 661,223 km closer than during the king tides last October. The combined gravitational attraction of the sun and moon on November 14th will be 3.73% greater than during last year's king tide.
"So to Grothar, Geoffrey, Camerooski, ChillinintheKeys, and any others in South Florida has the flooding been affecting your neighborhoods?"

Good evening GT and all. I just got home an hour ago from North Georgia. I can see that the water was up over my dock today. It was on the dock Friday night also. Last years King Tides came within an inch of flooding my shop which is on the Florida Bay side of the Keys. My house is on the oceanside (Technically the Florida Straits). We had no flooding at the shop Friday. I think that the strong NE winds were pushing the water out of the shallow bay. Key West did have moderate street flooding Friday though. We're having strong East winds tonight so hopefully all's dry at work. 15 hours on the road today with only a day up there but the Fall weather was a nice change.
A photograph for Dakster in comment #1712 of my blog. A political contest for all in comment #1714 of my blog.
153. beell
Quoting 150. BaltimoreBrian:

Grothar, the moon had its 3rd closest perigee of the year a day after the full moon this past weekend. To watch--on November 14, 2016, the moon will be the closest to the earth since January 26, 1948 and on the day of the full moon. The moon will be 1,936 km closer than during the full moon of the king tides last October, and the sun will be 661,223 km closer than during the king tides last October. The combined gravitational attraction of the sun and moon on November 14th will be 3.73% greater than during last year's king tide.


Don't forget the wide reaching effects of ocean swell from Nicole along with persistent northeasterly winds.
j/s...
154. elioe
Quoting 139. HurricaneFan:


I wish the NHC would issue a tropical storm warning for Greenland and continue issuing advisories on Nicole as a post-tropical cyclone. That would be funny to witness a "Greenland landfall"


NHC couldn't issue tropical storm warning. Issuance should be done by either government of Denmark, government of Greenland, or the Danish weather service. Then NHC would publish that warning in their advisories.
Quoting 153. beell:

Don't forget the wide reaching effects of ocean swell from Nicole along with a persistent northeasterly winds.
j/s...
Hopefully those will be gone by November 14th.
Some good news, I suppose for those in Florida and the SouthEast:

A.M. Best Briefing: Significant Damage From Hurricane Matthew Appears Manageable for Insurers

A.M. Best does not anticipate a significant number of rating actions related to Hurricane Matthew, as most rated insurance carriers have sufficient capital and appropriate reinsurance programs in place to effectively absorb this event, according to a new briefing.

Hurricane Matthew left a trail of wind and flood damage throughout U.S. southeastern coastal regions in early October 2016. The Best’s Briefing, titled, “Significant Damage From Hurricane Matthew Appears Manageable for Insurers,” notes that many top homeowners/farmowners and automobile writers in the affected states have diverse geographic footprints and product profiles, in addition to possessing an appropriate level of risk-adjusted capitalization. Solid overall risk management profiles and capabilities, inclusive of comprehensive reinsurance programs, should help ensure that these organizations are adequately protected from the potential losses to emanate from the storm.


For more: LINK
Quoting 136. GTstormChaserCaleb:

She will melt them. On a more serious note there is a debate happening right now between U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and his running mate candidate for U.S Senator Patrick Murphy. They are discussing the topic of Climate Change. Coming from the Republican Party I'm surprised to know that Rubio is 100% in favor of mitigation and in favor of alternative forms of energy. The moderator was stating how there are problems with salt water intrusion even on a dry day along Miami Beach. Rubio tied that to King Tide, which I also understand is happening currently. He is also blaming Georgia for stealing water from Apalachee Bay and the Oysterman Village. Murphy, stated the reefs are dying in the Florida Keys from coral bleaching and in the panhandle the oysters are dying from changes to the fresh water flow. Rubio is blaming the algae bloom in Lake Okeechobee from the nutrient rich fresh water flow from rivers flowing in from the north and dumping into the Lake and that sea level rise has nothing to do with the algae. A statistic I found very concerning is approximately 400 Billion dollars in property are at risk from sea level rise across Miami.


Rubio's take on Climate Change "changes" as often as the wind changes direction.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TYPHOON LAWIN
5:00 AM PhST October 18 2016
======================
Typhoon "LAWIN" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a west northwest direction

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lawin (HAIMA) [943 hPa] located at 14.6N 132.9E or 1,075 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
===============
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
Cagayan
Isabela
Catanduanes
Northern Aurora

Additional Information
=================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

TY “LAWIN” is expected to intensify further before making landfall.

It expected to make landfall over Cagayan Area by Thursday early morning (Oct. 20) then it will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte. By Friday early morning (Oct. 21), “LAWIN” is expected to exit PAR.

Sea travel is risky over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon, the western seaboard of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Samar.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting 153. beell:



Don't forget the wide reaching effects of ocean swell from Nicole along with persistent northeasterly winds.
j/s...


And Matthew pushing water to the South against the Gulf Stream too.
160. beell
Quoting 155. BaltimoreBrian:

Hopefully those will be gone by November 14th.


Point taken.
Coastal flooding potential in FL would be a bit on the high-side today-in conjunction with a King Tide now.
Watch the earth fall towards the sun at nearly 1,000 mph as it is doing now.
.... And there was light.... 😀😎
163. beell
Quoting 159. ChillinInTheKeys:



And Matthew pushing water to the South against the Gulf Stream too.


Maybe so. Could be some left-over back-up or slowing of the gulf stream. Had not considered that.

A warmer ocean (gulf stream/southwest Atlantic) would contribute a share as well (expansion/sea-level rise).
Quoting 136. GTstormChaserCaleb:

She will melt them. On a more serious note there is a debate happening right now between U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and his running mate candidate for U.S Senator Patrick Murphy. They are discussing the topic of Climate Change. Coming from the Republican Party I'm surprised to know that Rubio is 100% in favor of mitigation and in favor of alternative forms of energy. The moderator was stating how there are problems with salt water intrusion even on a dry day along Miami Beach. Rubio tied that to King Tide, which I also understand is happening currently. He is also blaming Georgia for stealing water from Apalachee Bay and the Oysterman Village. Murphy, stated the reefs are dying in the Florida Keys from coral bleaching and in the panhandle the oysters are dying from changes to the fresh water flow. Rubio is blaming the algae bloom in Lake Okeechobee from the nutrient rich fresh water flow from rivers flowing in from the north and dumping into the Lake and that sea level rise has nothing to do with the algae. A statistic I found very concerning is approximately 400 Billion dollars in property are at risk from sea level rise across Miami.


All way too late. The game is over.

It is as though the bowl has cleared the table, and is dropping to a marble floor below, with nothing round that can prevent its demise.

The most remockable thing about ACC is its apparent invisibility to human consciousness.

That will be changing soon.
Quoting 147. thetwilightzone:

i saw it 1st


You saw nothing first
166. beell
Altimetry-derived sea heights



Quoting 150. BaltimoreBrian:

Grothar, the moon had its 3rd closest perigee of the year a day after the full moon this past weekend. To watch--on November 14, 2016, the moon will be the closest to the earth since January 26, 1948 and on the day of the full moon. The moon will be 1,936 km closer than during the full moon of the king tides last October, and the sun will be 661,223 km closer than during the king tides last October. The combined gravitational attraction of the sun and moon on November 14th will be 3.73% greater than during last year's king tide.


And 40% of people prefer Maxwell house over Folgers
Quoting 163. beell:



Maybe so. Could be some left-over back-up or slowing of the gulf stream. Had not considered that.

A warmer ocean (gulf stream/southwest Atlantic) would contribute a share as well (expansion/sea-level rise).


I don't know whether fact or fiction but I was reading something a while back regarding the Gulf Stream stopping as it has been thought happen in the past, that sea levels would rise 3 1/2' in south Florida and the gulf due to the Trade Winds stacking the water.

Added: Tired... Must sleep now... 'til the mornin'...
Quoting 154. elioe:



NHC couldn't issue tropical storm warning. Issuance should be done by either government of Denmark, government of Greenland, or the Danish weather service. Then NHC would publish that warning in their advisories.

True. I think what's interesting is the fact that we can actually talk about one, although unlikely. How often would you talk about a TS Watch/Warning being issued for Greenland? :)
Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Congressman visits king tide flooding in Fort Lauderdale to call for environmental investment

Salt water from the king tides quickly swamped the streets of the isles neighborhoods in Fort Lauderdale on Monday morning. 

The water's depth, which ranged from several inches to roughly a foot in some parts after the 9:41 a.m. high tide, brought mullet fish into the streets as the Intracoastal Waterway rose slightly above some residents' boat docks.

Standing just off Southeast 25th Avenue, south of East Las Olas Boulevard, Congressman Ted Deutch, D-Fla., said he was surprised by how swiftly the water poured out of the storm drains to deluge the streets and sidewalks.

"If standing in this water on a beautiful South Florida morning doesn't tell us it's time to start investing in environmental infrastructure to protect our communities, then I don't think anything will," Deutch said.

Accompanied by other public officials as well as academics from Florida Atlantic University and others who live and work in the areas affected by king tides, Deutch said a number of factors, including climate change and sea level rise, are contributing to more severe tidal flooding.

It was all part of a discussion in which elected officials, experts, as well as members of the local business community talked about how to keep the water from the king tides off of South Florida's streets.

City officials in Delray Beach also met Monday night to discuss king tides with the public. They may normally hold the talks during high tides in knee-high water, but this year chose to hold an event at Saltwater Brewery, as part of an outreach effort to attract younger audiences.

"We need the younger generation to understand this," said Ana Puszkin-Chevlin, event organizer and Delray Beach's sustainability officer.

King tides are seasonal higher-than-usual tides, and according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "occur when the orbits and alignment of the Earth, moon, and sun combine to produce the greatest tidal effects of the year."

Colin Polsky, a professor of geosciences at FAU, said part of the solution is investing in the kinds of infrastructure most residents don't see or think about, such as valves, drains, berms, sea walls and pipes.

"We built the city next to the ocean before," Polsky said. "We just need to redesign it, redevelop it." 

"You have to connect the discussion of climate change with the discussion of infrastructure," Deutch said.

In Fort Lauderdale, from the balcony of the third-floor condo he shares with his wife, John Roth, 71, watched as a stand-up paddleboarder glided down Sunset Drive.

"I believe climate change is playing a role," Roth said

A 25-year resident of the neighborhood, he said he has never seen the annual high tides increase as fast as they have in the past 10 years. But he said many of the residents in the area, like he and his wife, like to be near the water because they either own boats, enjoy watersports or both. He said the flooding wasn't enough to cause him to consider moving.

Nick Aumen, a regional science adviser for the U.S. Geological Survey, said it's hard to see a noticeable difference in the tide levels year over year. He said the increase becomes apparent over the long term.

"One of the longest sea level rise guages is in Key West, and over the last 100 years the water has come up approximately 10 inches," Aumen said. "And what we're concerned about is that increase is getting faster."

By noon Monday, water still remained in the streets of the isles neighborhoods but it was gradually receding.

Several dozen residents attended Monday's king tides meeting in Delray Beach. Evelyn Ross and her husband Joe, who recently moved from New York, came to learn more about what it's like to live in an area prone to flooding.

"I was very interested in what kind of an impact 5 miles from the beach would have," she said.

More flooding was expected Monday night when the high tide comes in again about 10 p.m. in Fort Lauderdale. The National Weather Service's Miami forecasting office issued a coastal flood advisory that said flooding was likely in the coastal areas of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Wednesday morning.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, high tide at Port Everglades on Monday night would be at 9:55 p.m. On Tuesday, the high tides there would be 10:32 a.m. and 10:46 p.m.

-------------

So to Grothar, Geoffrey, Camerooski, ChillinintheKeys, and any others in South Florida has the flooding been affecting your neighborhoods?


I drove around Boca Raton and Deerfield beaches last night. Tides were higher than normal high tide, but nothing topped the beaches here, locally, at least.
Quoting 164. MontanaZephyr:


All way too late. The game is over. It is as though the bowl has cleared the table, and is dropping to a marble floor below, with nothing round that can prevent its demise.The most remockable thing about ACC is its apparent invisibility to human consciousness.That will be changing soon.

Well here are some good news :
Ipsos - Global Trends 2014 : Environment (Look at the box in the lower right-hand corner. I haven't checked their methodology though).
What the world thinks about climate change in 7 charts
25W Haima :

Interesting :
"(...) A PREVIOUS 171638Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWED AN OUTER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE INNER EYE SUGGESTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) WAS UNDERWAY. HOWEVER, NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA IS AVAILABLE
TO CONFIRM EYEWALL CONTRACTION AND MSI (MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY)
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS INDICATES EYEWALL EXPANSION, REVERSING THE ERC TREND. (...)"
From JTWC : Typhoon 25W (Haima) Warning #14 Issued at 18/0300Z.
JTWC website link (for the latest, complete warnings).
173. beell
Quoting 167. Grothar:



And 40% of people prefer Maxwell house over Folgers


And 63% of all statistics are made up.

And there are only two kinds of statisticians in this world.
1.) Those that can derive conclusions from incomplete data.
Quoting 162. BahaHurican:

.... And there was light.... 😀😎
A good feeling Baha! Enjoy!
Quoting 15. georgevandenberghe:



It was for us in DC also. My cool season plants (broccoli and lettuce) are two to three weeks behind because of this heat.. good big thick crunchy lettuce late this week (finally) and broccoli, not till the last days of October. Peas are a total loss. With short days such warmth does not do much for warm season stuff, tomatoes get diseases from the heavy dews and long nights and corn tassels early and short and also gets leaf rusts and blights. Peppers and beans are favored though and I'm still getting a lot of delicious limas after poor set due to heat in July made me think it would be a bad year for them.

Four hot days in DC likely this week starting today. Records may be exceeded, record highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 80s.


I still have tomatoes, snap peas, Swiss chard, and green peppers, with no frost in sight. It will be a late first frost this year.
Quoting 136. GTstormChaserCaleb:

She will melt them. On a more serious note there is a debate happening right now between U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and his running mate candidate for U.S Senator Patrick Murphy. They are discussing the topic of Climate Change. Coming from the Republican Party I'm surprised to know that Rubio is 100% in favor of mitigation and in favor of alternative forms of energy. The moderator was stating how there are problems with salt water intrusion even on a dry day along Miami Beach. Rubio tied that to King Tide, which I also understand is happening currently. He is also blaming Georgia for stealing water from Apalachee Bay and the Oysterman Village. Murphy, stated the reefs are dying in the Florida Keys from coral bleaching and in the panhandle the oysters are dying from changes to the fresh water flow. Rubio is blaming the algae bloom in Lake Okeechobee from the nutrient rich fresh water flow from rivers flowing in from the north and dumping into the Lake and that sea level rise has nothing to do with the algae. A statistic I found very concerning is approximately 400 Billion dollars in property are at risk from sea level rise across Miami.

No. Note his words. He said "If in fact sea levels are rising and affecting our communities" then they should spend money to fix that. This coming 1 minute after he referenced working with Senator Inhofe, an idiot who tried to disprove global warming by bringing a snowball to the senate floor.
The old adage about tropical cyclones transitioning to extratropical
once the latitude is larger than the longitude does not apply to Nicole.

But it is a new adage to me.
(Click picture to enlarge it)

Source : NAVY/NRL TC.
So, Nicole will melt Greenland's ice sheets, but with all the rain freezing after it falls, it will get thicker? Just making sure I understand this correctly.
Cody's assignment: describe this man's political outlook using Venn diagrams ;)

Oh, and mods please flag/ban comment #174 and the handle associated with it.
Quoting 157. daddyjames:



Rubio's take on Climate Change "changes" as often as the wind changes direction.
Rubio reminds me of the actor that played "Cal" (Mr. Hockley) in Titanic, Rose's fiancée. Young, but makes snide remarks and has that smirk on his face like you can't trust him. For a young politician he has done a lot better than other young politicians that have served in this country in being actively involved in human rights voicing his opinions and defending protests against oppressive regimes in other countries like Venezuela, and especially in Cuba being the son of a refugee. I think it is a good thing for the Hispanic community that they have someone to look up to. They're a few other views that I actually agree with him on, such as his alternative to student loans. He actually proposed a bill last year that would allow individuals or private organizations to finance students’ higher education costs. In exchange, students agree to make income-based payments based on their earnings.
Quoting 172. 999Ai2016:

25W Haima :

Interesting :
"(...) A PREVIOUS 171638Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWED AN OUTER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE INNER EYE SUGGESTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) WAS UNDERWAY. HOWEVER, NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA IS AVAILABLE
TO CONFIRM EYEWALL CONTRACTION AND MSI (MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY)
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS INDICATES EYEWALL EXPANSION, REVERSING THE ERC TREND. (...)"
From JTWC : Typhoon 25W (Haima) Warning #14 Issued at 18/0300Z.
JTWC website link (for the latest, complete warnings).

Not sure what JTWC is looking at here. Granted, microwave data from NRL/FNMOC has been a little sketchy lately, but the aforementioned 1638Z AMSR2 pass, a 2211Z F-17 pass, and an 0241Z GPM pass (all pictured below) show the evolution of eyewall replacement about as completely as can be hoped. Furthermore, visible imagery clearly shows the inner eyewall beginning to weaken, showing signs of subsiding into a new eye.







Quoting 181. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody's assignment: describe this man's political outlook using Venn diagrams ;)

Oh, and mods please flag/ban comment #174 and the handle associated with it.
Red flag the post.
Quoting 184. 1900hurricane:


Not sure what JTWC is looking at here. Granted, microwave data from NRL/FNMOC has been a little sketchy lately, but the aforementioned 1638Z AMSR2 pass, a 2211Z F-17 pass, and an 0241Z GPM pass (all pictured below) show the evolution of eyewall replacement about as completely as can be hoped. Furthermore, visible imagery clearly shows the inner eyewall beginning to weaken, showing signs of subsiding into a new eye.


Many thanks for clarifying that for us, 1900 ! Also, It gives me a much better idea of what an ERC looks like.
I already did that Baha.

Meanwhile you have barely 10 months to prepare until the sun disappears! Astrometeor will have practically the best seat in the world. August 21, 2017--click map to expand:

Ah, yes. Now that we don't have a cyclone threatening the states, I see we're back two the two subjects I can honestly do without; politics and global warming.

One- Anyone who believes ANY politician cares about you, someone they don't know, needs to have their head examined. They don't. No one has the capacity to truly "care" about 350 million people, so let's get that straight.

As for global warming, we all have a finite time on this planet. Have we contributed to a warming? Yes. Will we kill the planet? No. My opinion, but we are insignificant little ants on Mother Earth.

Rant over.
Quoting 61. elioe:



According to Wiktionary, in Estonian it's "kõhunääre" and in Hungarian "hasnyálmirigy". Origin of the word "haima" in Finnish is unknown.


In google translate, haima in Chinese means hippocampus in english.
I care deeply about my country and the people within it, and have spent more than half my life protecting it. Don't project your personal limitations on others.
Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Congressman visits king tide flooding in Fort Lauderdale to call for environmental investment

Salt water from the king tides quickly swamped the streets of the isles neighborhoods in Fort Lauderdale on Monday morning. 

The water's depth, which ranged from several inches to roughly a foot in some parts after the 9:41 a.m. high tide, brought mullet fish into the streets as the Intracoastal Waterway rose slightly above some residents' boat docks.

Standing just off Southeast 25th Avenue, south of East Las Olas Boulevard, Congressman Ted Deutch, D-Fla., said he was surprised by how swiftly the water poured out of the storm drains to deluge the streets and sidewalks.

"If standing in this water on a beautiful South Florida morning doesn't tell us it's time to start investing in environmental infrastructure to protect our communities, then I don't think anything will," Deutch said.

Accompanied by other public officials as well as academics from Florida Atlantic University and others who live and work in the areas affected by king tides, Deutch said a number of factors, including climate change and sea level rise, are contributing to more severe tidal flooding.

It was all part of a discussion in which elected officials, experts, as well as members of the local business community talked about how to keep the water from the king tides off of South Florida's streets.

City officials in Delray Beach also met Monday night to discuss king tides with the public. They may normally hold the talks during high tides in knee-high water, but this year chose to hold an event at Saltwater Brewery, as part of an outreach effort to attract younger audiences.

"We need the younger generation to understand this," said Ana Puszkin-Chevlin, event organizer and Delray Beach's sustainability officer.

King tides are seasonal higher-than-usual tides, and according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "occur when the orbits and alignment of the Earth, moon, and sun combine to produce the greatest tidal effects of the year."

Colin Polsky, a professor of geosciences at FAU, said part of the solution is investing in the kinds of infrastructure most residents don't see or think about, such as valves, drains, berms, sea walls and pipes.

"We built the city next to the ocean before," Polsky said. "We just need to redesign it, redevelop it." 

"You have to connect the discussion of climate change with the discussion of infrastructure," Deutch said.

In Fort Lauderdale, from the balcony of the third-floor condo he shares with his wife, John Roth, 71, watched as a stand-up paddleboarder glided down Sunset Drive.

"I believe climate change is playing a role," Roth said

A 25-year resident of the neighborhood, he said he has never seen the annual high tides increase as fast as they have in the past 10 years. But he said many of the residents in the area, like he and his wife, like to be near the water because they either own boats, enjoy watersports or both. He said the flooding wasn't enough to cause him to consider moving.

Nick Aumen, a regional science adviser for the U.S. Geological Survey, said it's hard to see a noticeable difference in the tide levels year over year. He said the increase becomes apparent over the long term.

"One of the longest sea level rise guages is in Key West, and over the last 100 years the water has come up approximately 10 inches," Aumen said. "And what we're concerned about is that increase is getting faster."

By noon Monday, water still remained in the streets of the isles neighborhoods but it was gradually receding.

Several dozen residents attended Monday's king tides meeting in Delray Beach. Evelyn Ross and her husband Joe, who recently moved from New York, came to learn more about what it's like to live in an area prone to flooding.

"I was very interested in what kind of an impact 5 miles from the beach would have," she said.

More flooding was expected Monday night when the high tide comes in again about 10 p.m. in Fort Lauderdale. The National Weather Service's Miami forecasting office issued a coastal flood advisory that said flooding was likely in the coastal areas of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Wednesday morning.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, high tide at Port Everglades on Monday night would be at 9:55 p.m. On Tuesday, the high tides there would be 10:32 a.m. and 10:46 p.m.

-------------

So to Grothar, Geoffrey, Camerooski, ChillinintheKeys, and any others in South Florida has the flooding been affecting your neighborhoods?


My coworkers live on the finger islands around las olas and have been driving through the waters. There isnt any concern from developers. Plenty of new construction going on in the area as well as all the way north and south.
Quoting 187. BaltimoreBrian:

I already did that Baha.

Meanwhile you have barely 10 months to prepare until the sun disappears! Astrometeor will have practically the best seat in the world. August 21, 2017--click map to expand:


Yep...That eclipse passes right over Mid TN...We live in Rock Island, which will have the total eclipse, but we decided to go down the road a bit to Sparta..There will be the longest totality..I hope the weather is good..

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TYPHOON LAWIN
11:00 AM PhST October 18 2016
======================
"LAWIN" has slightly accelerated as it moves in a west northwest direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lawin (HAIMA) [943 hPa] located at 15.0N 131.7E or 950 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
===============
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
Cagayan including Calayan group of islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Isabela
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Northern
Aurora
Polillo Islands
Catanduanes

Additional Information
=================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Expected to intensify further before making landfall.

Expected to make landfall over Cagayan Area by Thursday early morning (Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.

Possible exit PAR on Friday early morning (Oct. 21).

Sea travel is risky over the northern and western seaboards of northern Luzon, western seaboard of central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Samar.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
You guys all remind me of one of George Carlin's first bits, when he played the Hippy-Dippy Weatherman, Well, for perhaps awhile, at least, I, um... wouldn't sweat the thunderstorms. :-(

In more weather-related things, as opposed to climate things, I find these images of Sarika to be rather stunning. In the first, look at its massive northern "outflow" moving into China. And in the second, the rather amazing looking build up of hot towers, directly in the middle of the island of Hainan. :o





That, and Haima seems to have just stopped its EWRC... it didn't appear as if it ever went through the process.

Jo
Quoting 127. Attirex:

I'm sure this has already been posted, but in case not, NY Times piece on the NWS and difficulty it has predicting "extreme" weather:


LINK
Thanks for posting that link.

Funny, the linked article features Cliff Mass who was at the front of the pack "worrying" over the Pac NW storm with Songda remnants. Guess what? A miss for Cliff Mass. It's weather, after all.

Michael Behar, writer of this NY Times article, takes one phrase related to intensity out of an NHC discussion or advisory. Can't do that. I bet somewhere in that same discussion page the forecaster discusses the uncertainty factor or the potential for the hurricane behaving otherwise. In fact, in many instances during Matthew NHC forecasters went against the model consensus and forecast higher intensities than modeled. Briefly, my opinion is the NHC is under too much pressure to "get it right." Not the pressure they put on themselves but pressure from upstairs in the government.

Perhaps we have reached a point where the models are as good as they get. Forecasting a hurricane is not like ordering a hamburger. There can be no certain expectation. Too many variables and variables of those variables, not to mention infinite variables not yet observed.

Respect weather as the natural phenomenon it is. Acknowledge humans cannot outthink a hurricane. Or a tornado. Or any extreme weather. No model the human mind conceives will achieve perfect understanding of the intricate interplay between the Earth and the Sky.
Well, now I'm going to watch that till it goes to zero. Thanks a lot!!!

Whew, after thinking that threw, it should start going back up sometime?



Quoting 161. BaltimoreBrian:

Watch the earth fall towards the sun at nearly 1,000 mph as it is doing now.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180555
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Nicole, located several hundred miles
east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located just
to the northeast of the southeastern Bahamas has become more
concentrated this morning, and surface observations indicate that
pressures are falling in the area. The low is expected to slowly
intensify as upper-level winds become more conducive, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during the next day or
two as the low moves northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
weather modification technology is a b*tch
seems testy just a little no
No clue why my images aren't displaying in my last post. They did for me when I first submitted them, so thought I'd done it ok. :-(

Jo
Nicole is weakening (55 kt 969 mb as of 0600Z), but is still tropical, delaying its transition into a post-tropical cyclone.
Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST October 18 2016
=======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haima (925 hPa) located at 15.4N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 16.3N 125.0E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.3N 119.4E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea
72 HRS: 21.6N 115.8E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea

Overland Hainan Island
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sarika (970 hPa) located at 19.3N 109.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 21.3N 108.0E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Gulf Of Tonkin
48 HRS: 23.0N 107.7E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
120 knots forecast to increase to 130 knots.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HAIMA 1622 (1622) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC
00HR 15.3N 130.8E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 140KM NORTHEAST
140KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 25KM/H
P+12HR 16.0N 128.0E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 16.7N 125.3E 905HPA 68M/S
P+36HR 17.6N 122.3E 910HPA 65M/S

P+48HR 18.6N 119.2E 945HPA 48M/S
P+60HR 20.1N 116.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 22.1N 115.3E 965HPA 38M/S
188. nash36
3:58 AM GMT on October 18, 2016

Ah, yes. Now that we don't have a cyclone threatening the states, I see we're back two the two subjects I can honestly do without; politics and global warming. 

One- Anyone who believes ANY politician cares about you, someone they don't know, needs to have their head examined. They don't. No one has the capacity to truly "care" about 350 million people, so let's get that straight. 

As for global warming, we all have a finite time on this planet. Have we contributed to a warming? Yes. Will we kill the planet? No. My opinion, but we are insignificant little ants on Mother Earth. 

Rant over.

Side stepping politics and global warming, I wonder who cares that technology (zero point) has been manifest in Area 51 S4 and Dugway Proving Ground among other areas that have borders protected by deadly force... This technology is evolutionary, virtually free... Solves most energy needs... no CO2 emissions...

We are held hostage by the elite who control these areas...Google “solar warden”... it is an abomination...

rip me

i have experienced the 65 mph winds there and it's not that bad
Blank post, just 'cause, ya know.... :-)
Quoting 149. drg0dOwnCountry:

Santa Catarina Brazil Meteotsunami (Oct 16, 2016)

METEOROLOGICAL TSUNAMI HITS BRAZIL
Heavy storms and strong winds killed a child and left a trail of destruction across 20 cities
By plus55 on Oct 17, 2016
Advert climatic conditions created a rare weather phenomenon in Southern Brazil: a meteorological tsunami, or more simply, a meteotsunami. It consists of a tsunami-like wave event related to air pressure conditions. At least 20 cities were hit by the storms, which destroyed thousands of homes and killed one child.
In the municipality of Balneário Rincão (located 186km from Florianópolis, the state capital of Santa Catarina), a giant wave hurt dozens of people and destroyed cars and buildings along the coast. Civil defense officials were sent to rescue people dragged to the sea. Wind speed hit the 100km/h mark.
The coastal city of Tubarão was affected the most. A falling tree killed a 7-year-old child, and two men who were sailing on Sunday afternoon were reported missing. In low-income neighborhoods, 90 percent of the houses had their roofs destroyed.
According to local officials, more than 140,000 homes had their energy supply interrupted.
This is the second time in seven years that a meteotsunami has hit the region. In 2009, Florianópolis was also affected by a tsunami-like wave.
Quoting 162. BahaHurican:

.... And there was light.... 😀😎

Congrats, Baha :-)))
We haven't seen that many pictures of the damage in the Bahamas in here, as far as I remember (it was more either Haiti or the US). So here is a video from the Nassau area (Clifton Pier Power Plant and Clifton Heritage Park), uploaded Oct. 13:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TxtUHUI30o
Recovery will take some time and efforts, I guess.

Current WU intro with a tropical feature that far north (dear Nicole) is worth saving.


Current airmass pic with Nicole from Eumetsat.

Haima as night sets in, a terrifying beauty. Click to enlarge.

Here is the high res Himawari loop.

----------------------------

Typhoon Sarika makes landfall in south China, hundreds of flights canceled
Source: Xinhua | 2016-10-18 14:40:11 | Editor: huaxia
Quoting 197. Barefootontherocks:

... Funny, the linked article features Cliff Mass who was at the front of the pack "worrying" over the Pac NW storm with Songda remnants. ...

This crossed my mind as well, when reading the NYT article ;-)

I'm out. Have a nice day, everyone!
So what happened to all those models of DOOM in the GOM people were posting last week? Nothing.
Better organization this morning. 140 knots at 12z?
Haima's highest cloud tops have completely circled a larger, better formed eye...

It's too hot
America in large part is yuck with heat

Quoting 217. Waltanater:

So what happened to all those models of DOOM in the GOM people were posting last week? Nothing.
Quoting 119. thetwilightzone:

this area of the site seems too be borken has any one have the same issue ? it seems like the forecast dos not want to lode or any thing on this page this needs too be fix

Link


Works if you have "BestForecast" selected, if you have "NWS" selected it does not want to completely load the page.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole, located several hundred miles
east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. Shower activity associated with a well-defined, non-tropical low
pressure system located just to the northeast of the Turks and
Caicos has changed little during the past several hours. The low is
expected to slowly intensify as upper-level winds become more
conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during
the next couple of days while the low moves northward on Wednesday
and turns north-northwestward or northwestward on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Quoting 214. barbamz:


Current WU intro with a tropical feature that far north (dear Nicole) is worth to be saved.


Barbara, this is the second time we catch you with the very same mistake - it's "worth saving"! You can't save your darling Nicole, as much as you may try ;-)
Quoting 217. Waltanater:

So what happened to all those models of DOOM in the GOM people were posting last week? Nothing.
Quoting 217. Waltanater:

So what happened to all those models of DOOM in the GOM people were posting last week? Nothing.


Based on some of the comments I was ready to board up. There was quite a bit of model consensus but the timeline was too far out.
Holy cow. O.o


good/morning the gulf system? more than enough energy remains. the system is just postponed
GFS landfall at 974mb.

Quoting 225. islander101010:

good/morning the gulf system? more than enough energy remains. the system is just postponed


A cold front is going to sweep into the GOM this weekend. Basically drying it out. A week ago I thought we would get one more system in the Caribbean but now I'm not so sure as it is the 18th and time is running short witn nothing on the horizon.
Quoting 223. Bucsboltsfan:



Based on some of the comments I was ready to board up. There was quite a bit of model consensus but the timeline was too far out.

People should refrain from posting models 10+ days out because it is a waste of time and effort. I would say if the models show something 5 days out, then yes post.
Quoting 222. EmsiNasklug:


Barbara, this is the second time we catch you with the very same mistake - it's "worth saving"! You can't save your darling Nicole, as much as you may try ;-)


Aww, lurking a bit from the office, thanks! I've just detected and corrected it by myself, hoping that nobody would have noticed that early in the US morning, but in vain :-)
Quoting 188. nash36:
Anyone who believes ANY politician cares about you, someone they don't know, needs to have their head examined. They don't. No one has the capacity to truly "care" about 350 million people, so let's get that straight.


By that reasoning, no one truly "cares" about all that lives lost in Matthew, or all the senseless death in Syria, or the thousands of sufferers battling cancer, or any other disaster that befalls humanity.

It's called empathy. Most people have it.

Quoting 188. nash36:
As for global warming, we all have a finite time on this planet. Have we contributed to a warming? Yes. Will we kill the planet? No


The planet? You think stopping global warming is about saving the planet? O_o

Stopping global warming is about preserving humanity. The fact that it also helps other species and the biosphere in general is just a happy coincidence.

All life that we know of exists between a razor thin sliver with the cold vacuum of space on one side and red hot magma on the other. You'd be kidding yourself if you think the mass expansion of humanity has had negligible impacts on this sliver.

Quoting 188. nash36:
My opinion, but we are insignificant little ants on Mother Earth.

Rant over.


We aren't talking about Earth. We're talking about this tiny little envelope wrapped around the Earth that just so happened to have ideal climate conditions to allow the rise of humanity. Paleoclimate studies have shown just how little it takes to knock the climate out of equilibrium, and we've done more than enough already to do so.
Quoting 224. CybrTeddy:

Holy cow. O.o





JMA has Haima already at 905 mb. Let's see how much more it can strengthen...
It's approaching T7.5

Quoting 220. nrtiwlnvragn:



Works if you have "BestForecast" selected, if you have "NWS" selected it does not want to completely load the page.
Interesting, and a wow. Worst to me is no radar link (!) to the location when you are set to NWS.
...

Furthermore...
"Best forecast" is based largely on PWS data including PWS history. Funnily enough, now when you search for a location's forecast, the option pops up "find nearest station' - PWS station, I presume. That's an LOL. Yesterday where I live, all day, winds across the area were steady in the 30s and gusted to 45 mph. PWS nearest me (5.5 miles away) had sustained winds of 6.something mph. Bad data is worse than no data, IBM. Your weather station data lacks quality control.

I hope "they" are upgrading the software the original brains of wu invented. You know, the stuff that translates NWS data to the site. Add: Maybe "they" don't even know NWS data flow is broken.
Quoting 228. Waltanater:


People should refrain from posting models 10+ days out because it is a waste of time and effort. I would say if the models show something 5 days out, then yes post.


That will never happen. To be honest, I wish that models didn't go past 5 days. As you and every expert says, models past 5 days are a waste of time.
Quoting 218. SPShaw:

Better organization this morning. 140 knots at 12z?
Haima's highest cloud tops have completely circled a larger, better formed eye...


Now that's a beast
@230. Xyrus,
Please don't leave the Earth out. Mother Earth may take umbrage. The Earth and Sky act together to create the atmosphere, and the weather.

Perhaps mankind can reduce, maybe even eliminate, its contribution to global warming. We cannot stop nature from being itself.

Have a nice day.
Not saying it's anywhere near as strong but Haima looks quite a bit like Haiyan at this moment.
Link

here are this winter season winter storm names




the weather CH has a named after kori the man lol


so it looks like kori will have a twin this winter
Navy site has Haima at 140 knots (160 mph) with a pressure of 919 mb as of 1200z...


The gusts from widespread strong wind that accompanied Oklahoma's "Indian summer" weather yesterday - an Indian summer that NWS has forecasted to continue after a brief but gentle cool-down on Oct 20th.
(image credit: Oklahoma mesonet)
marry X mass every one and happy new year
Is anybody else taking note of this?

Jim Hansen's "Storms of My Grandchildren" have arrived much earlier than even he imagined -- in 2009. What will happen in the next 10 years?

I am looking at the Caribbean and the Philippines and I am wondering what will become of these people.
25W/STY/H/C5+
Bye bye Nicole...Nice knowing you...


wow...... makes Matthew look like an afternoon thunderstorm. Let's be happy we virtually never get these huge intense storms in our basin. Something like this hitting anywhere on our east coast would do unthinkable amounts of damage.

Quoting 247. pipelines:

wow...... makes Matthew look like an afternoon thunderstorm. Let's be happy we virtually never get these huge intense storms in our basin. Something like this hitting anywhere on our east coast would do unthinkable amounts of damage.




You do realize Matthew was a CAT5 in the Caribbean. I don't think you would call that an "afternoon thunderstorm" especially after what it did to Haiti.
Haima is officially a category five typhoon.
Sarika is heading into the Gulf of Tonkin soon.


Japan Meteorological Agency
21:00 PM JST October 18 2016
=======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haima (905 hPa) located at 15.6N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 17.0N 123.6E - 115 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.0N 118.1E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea
72 HRS: 22.7N 114.6E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea

Overland Hainan Island
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Sarika (985 hPa) located at 19.7N 109.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 21.4N 107.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Gulf Of Tonkin
48 HRS: 23.2N 107.7E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
Quoting 233. Bucsboltsfan:



That will never happen. To be honest, I wish that models didn't go past 5 days. As you and every expert says, models past 5 days are a waste of time.


Its not like it was just one model, the Euro had lower pressures all over the region, while the GFS op and ensembles also had something forming for multiple runs. So it was discussed obviously, it just so happens the low formed north of the islands instead of south of it. Not really a huge loss for the models.
am starting too think that Otto may be are last named storm of the season
and has far has the E PAC hurricane season gos i think they are done for the season

has 98E has fail and 99E looks too fail has well
254. IDTH
Quoting 224. CybrTeddy:

Holy cow. O.o




Good lord the west pacific is insane.
Multiple vorts again...

Quoting 250. HadesGodWyvern:

Typhoon Haima (905 hPa) located at 15.6N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots.
24 HRS: 17.0N 123.6E - 115 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines


Always have difficulty with the 10 min verses 1 min winds. Is this right?
Now: 110 knots (10 min) = 125 knots (1 min) or 140 mph
In 24 hrs: 115 knots (10 min) = 130 knots (1 min) or 150 mph
Why does the JMA have it so much lower than every one else?
Quoting 251. VAbeachhurricanes:



Its not like it was just one model, the Euro had lower pressures all over the region, while the GFS op and ensembles also had something forming for multiple runs. So it was discussed obviously, it just so happens the low formed north of the islands instead of south of it. Not really a huge loss for the models.


You are totally correct. It was mentioned many times that multiple low could form anywhere from the eastern Gulf, to the Caribbean to the area near the Bahamas. A number of days ago, I wrote a few times to watch the area near the Bahamas for development. It was evident this would most likely be the area with the greatest pressure drop. Also, development in the Caribbean is still a great possibility over the next week.
Haima starting to remind me of Haiyan.

Haima:



Haiyan:



Still has time to strengthen and clear out the eye some more. Not looking good.
Quoting 256. SPShaw:



Always have difficulty with the 10 min verses 1 min winds. Is this right?
Now: 110 knots (10 min) = 125 knots (1 min) or 140 mph
In 24 hrs: 115 knots (10 min) = 130 knots (1 min) or 150 mph
Why does the JMA have it so much lower than every one else?

It has to do with the way the top end of JMA's Koba Dvorak Table is structured. Intensities are usually assigned through use of the Dvorak technique, in which a BD IR image is used to assign a T number. JMA's currently assigned 110 kt intensity falls between a T7.0 and T7.5 intensity, which would correlate to an intensity of 145-150 kt on a standard 1 minute Dvorak Table. There are many people who feel that JMA's Koba table is flawed at the higher intensities, but it's what they use.

I swiped this Dvorak comparison table from HadesGodWyvern's blog, which makes it clear what each agencies intensity estimates are against each others's.

Quoting 251. VAbeachhurricanes:



Its not like it was just one model, the Euro had lower pressures all over the region, while the GFS op and ensembles also had something forming for multiple runs. So it was discussed obviously, it just so happens the low formed north of the islands instead of south of it. Not really a huge loss for the models.


True. But then comes the usual characters multiplying the possibilities and projecting DOOM across the basin and FL. --right after Matthew.

Not cool.
Quoting 258. Envoirment:

Haima starting to remind me of Haiyan.

Haima:



Haiyan:



Still has time to strengthen and clear out the eye some more. Not looking good.
Raw and catastrophic power....Killed thousands...



Quoting 248. Sfloridacat5:



You do realize Matthew was a CAT5 in the Caribbean. I don't think you would call that an "afternoon thunderstorm" especially after what it did to Haiti.


You missed the part where I said "compared to Matthew". Haima is a huge storm with an equally huge windfield, Matthew in comparison had a very very small windfield. It's like comparing a marble to a bowling ball.

What happened and is happening in Haiti is terrible, but let's be honest, similar disasters have occurred there from tropical waves.
Still trying to get something brewing in the Caribbean it seems even though its 384 hrs out. Wouldn't rule out anything during that time though. Thats the right area to start looking at during this time too.
Quoting 263. bigwes6844:

Still trying to get something brewing in the Caribbean it seems even though its 384 hrs out. Wouldn't rule out anything during that time though. Thats the right area to start looking at during this time too.



thats a joke right 384hr is way out there and should only be uesd for entertainment only nothing more the GFS will drop that in the next run
There is white on this loop, explosive convection providing more power...Prayers to those in the path...

Quoting 264. thetwilightzone:



thats a joke right 384hr is way out there and should only be uesd for entertainment only nothing more the GFS will drop that in the next run

True. But i think they are on to something trying to develop. They been trying to get something for almost a week. Those conditions are still good too.
267. Soflo
Maybe not a afternoon thunderstorm but hurricanes these past few years regardless power have on radar looked considerably weeker than nhc tells us. In my opinion hurricane having nothing when matched against typhoons

Quoting 248. Sfloridacat5:



You do realize Matthew was a CAT5 in the Caribbean. I don't think you would call that an "afternoon thunderstorm" especially after what it did to Haiti.
268. vis0

Quoting 253. thetwilightzone:

and has far has the E PAC hurricane season gos i think they are done for the season

has 98E has fail and 99E looks too fail has well
It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone.


NOW i understand why TAZ changed to TWI (before category 6™ was announced officially) ,  cat6 is something (as to a storm ) that would only exist via the twilight zone

As to perceived reality::
If Otto forms it might be the new (not every year) way of Nature transitioning from Autumn towards winter in which a TS/Hurricane Bombs out while becoming an extra tropical, extra virgin cold pressed (pressurized center cold core-ish) xtratropical subtropical Otto (Olive oil).

imagine TWI and my playing scrabble

NOTE::  If you like the 2 VIDs (https://archive.org/details/TSLisaULLToTSNicole   https://archive.org/details/2016HurricaneNICOLEIR SATPOV ) on the Archive sight Download them.  
The site is (fingers crossed) the best in which i've been able to upload my VIDs without any issues.
Un problema, it has a 100 MB limit.
Since i want to upload a VID (used my filters) as to 2016 Matthew (sadly satellite imagery i use only includes from 60W 16N  i cannot show when MATTHEW had its weirdest actions near S. America) Once you download the VIDs use them as you wish.Lets observe quakes Weather.
Quoting 213. barbamz:


Congrats, Baha :-)))
We haven't seen that many pictures of the damage in the Bahamas in here, as far as I remember (it was more either Haiti or the US). So here is a video from the Nassau area (Clifton Pier Power Plant and Clifton Heritage Park), uploaded Oct. 13:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TxtUHUI30o
Recovery will take some time and efforts, I guess.
Thanks, Barb. There's been a lot of damage here, but people are thankful no life was lost. Because Matthew hit the two largest population centers in the country, the economic costs will be great, likely nearing or exceeding that accrued in prior storms. But we are getting back to normal, bit by bit.
270. TX2FL
Quoting 219. 19N81W:

It's too hot
America in large part is yuck with heat




How can it be "too hot" for a tropical system? The GOM hasn't been touched and it's got to have potential to be a hotbed of activity if something gets in there.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Is anybody else taking note of this?

Jim Hansen's "Storms of My Grandchildren" have arrived much earlier than even he imagined -- in 2009. What will happen in the next 10 years?

I am looking at the Caribbean and the Philippines and I am wondering what will become of these people.