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Bermuda Endures Direct Hit from Nicole; Fierce Winds in Store for Pacific NW

By: Bob Henson 4:09 PM GMT on October 14, 2016

Hurricane Nicole continued to scurry across the open North Atlantic on Friday after hammering Bermuda while at Category 3 strength on Thursday. As of 11 am EDT, Nicole was located about 400 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, moving east-northeast at 18 mph with top sustained winds of 80 mph. Nicole is a massive storm: its hurricane-force winds extend up to 70 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds out to 205 miles. Nicole should remain sizable and powerful even after it gradually evolves into a post-tropical cyclone this weekend, posing no additional threat to land. (Nicole may retain a warm core surrounded by cooler midlatitude air for some time.)

Bermuda is accustomed to hurricanes, though Nicole was among the few in recent decades to make a direct hit on the island nation of about 65,000 residents. (See our Wednesday post for more on Bermuda’s hurricane history.) As defined by the National Hurricane Center, landfall is when the center of a hurricane’s eye reaches land, and a direct hit is when at least part of a hurricane’s inner eyewall passes over land. Radar imagery showed that the center of Nicole’s large eye just missed Bermuda, passing less than 10 miles to its southeast; satellite imagery made it appear the eye was further away because of the hurricane’s tilt from southwest to northeast with height. Since Nicole’s eye was so large, virtually all of Bermuda got the “eye experience”: winds suddenly becoming calm or very light, with birds chirping in the background.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Nicole at 1524Z (12: local time) Thursday, October 13, 2016, as the large, ragged eye (at least 50 km or 30 miles wide) encompassed the entire island, which is partially visible just to the west of the crosshatch at center that denotes the radar location. Image credit: Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School.


Figure 2. A tiki bar lays in a shamble following Hurricane Nicole, in Tobacco Bay, St. Georges, Bermuda, Thursday, October 13, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Mark Tatem.

The northern eyewall of Nicole tore across Bermuda at full strength, with a lesser hit from the western eyewall after the eye passed overhead. Sustained winds peaked at 87 knots (100 mph) with gusts to 111 knots (128 mph) at a Windguru observation site at Commissioner’s Point on the northwest tip of Bermuda, according to James Dodgson, deputy director of the Bermuda Weather Service. A newer low-level reporting site, installed for the upcoming America’s Cup at Pearl Island in central Bermuda, recorded 76-knot (87-mph) sustained winds, gusting to 103 knots (119 mph). (Thanks to James Dodgson for these preliminary data.) Tidal data from Esso Pier, on the south side of Bermuda’s St. Georges Island, indicate a peak storm surge of 3.73 feet at 1:30 pm Thursday local time.

Nicole’s fury caused remarkably little damage on Bermuda, a sign of the island’s resilient buildings and infrastructure. Bermuda’s national security minister, Jeff Baron, said there was significant flooding and severe road damage at points around the island, along with downed trees and power lines, according to weather.com.


Figure 3. Hurricane Nicole as captured by the MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1750Z (1:50 pm EDT) Wednesday, October 12, 2016, as Nicole was approaching Bermuda (visible as a dark spot at upper right of image). Image credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.

Potential once-in-a-decade windstorm takes shape for Pacific Northwest
The remnants of Typhoon Songda, now pushing east through the North Pacific alongside a very strong branch of the polar jet stream (see FIgure 4 below], will spring back to life this weekend in the form of an intensifying midlatitude cyclone expected to sweep near or over the west coast of Washington. The Pacific Northwest is prone to occasional damaging windstorms caused by strong midlatitude cyclones that arc northward along the coast. According to the National Weather Service in Seattle, this storm has the potential to be the worst for the region since the Hanukkah Eve windstorm of December 14-15, 2006. Arriving on the heels of weeks of record-heavy rainfall, that storm knocked out power to more than 1.8 million people (in some cases for several days) and caused damage of more than $250 million in the U.S. and more than $80 million in Canada. Other major storms in the Pacific Northwest include the Inaugural Day Storm of January 20, 1993; the February 13, 1979 storm; and the infamous Columbus Day Storm of October 12, 1962, which produced gusts to 116 mph in Portland, Oregon, and 88 mph at Tacoma, Washington (see Figures 5 and 6 below).

This weekend’s storm--already informally dubbed the Ides of October storm--is expected to develop on Saturday west of Oregon and move north-northeast to near or over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington on Saturday night. The GFS and European models agree that its central pressure will be in the range of 965 to 975 millibars near the Washington coast, comparable to the central pressures of many Category 1 and 2 hurricanes. There are still significant differences between models on the exact track and strength of the storm, and these could have big implications for the weather that results. “If our track is off by 100 miles, the forecast is radically changed at nearly all locations,” cautioned Cliff Mass (University of Washington) in a Thursday blog post. High Wind Watches for Saturday night warned of the potential for 20 - 40 mph winds in Seattle, with gusts to 65 mph in both Seattle and Portland. Similar winds could affect Vancouver, BC, depending on the storm’s track. Much higher winds will strike the Pacific Northwest at elevation, where gusts could easily exceed 100 mph.


Figure 4. The windstorm expected to strike the Pacific Northwest over the weekend will develop on the nose of a powerful jet stream segment across the central and eastern North Pacific. Sustained winds at the 250-millibar level (about 34,000 feet) will exceed 160 mph across more than 1000 miles of the jet core, with peak winds at the jet-stream level possibly topping 200 mph. Wind legend at right is in knots; multiply by 1.15 for mph. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

More than wind
This weekend’s storm will be the most dramatic segment in a multi-day episode of heavy rain, high wind, and flooding along and near the Pacific Coast from northern California to British Columbia. The first salvo, on Thursday night into Friday morning, brought winds gusting as high as 55 mph in coastal Washington, along with widespread rains of 2” - 3” on the coast and more than 5” in the Olympic Mountains. More than 10,000 customers were still without power Friday morning on British Columbia’s Vancouver Island after Thursday night's powerful winds.

From Friday morning through early next week, coastal locations and coast-facing slopes could receive anywhere from 8” to 14” of additional rainfall, with especially heavy amounts likely over extreme northwest California and far southwest Oregon. The moisture will extend into parts of central California, where the Sierra Nevada will get its first major storm of the year (mostly in the form of rain, though). San Francisco could pick up an inch or more, which would make for its heaviest rain event since more than 3” fell on March 9-13.

Sarika heading toward Philippines
Our next tropical cyclone of significance to land areas is Tropical Storm Sarika, which is expected to reach at least Category 1 typhoon strength as it rolls across the northern Philippines. Sarika may continue intensifying early next week as it heads toward Southeast Asia, potentially affecting Vietnam by midweek.

See our Thursday evening post for more details on our blog’s new name, Category 6. We’ll be back on Monday with our next post. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Damage from the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 in Seattle, WA. Image credit: Seattle Municipal Archives.


Figure 6. Damage from the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 in Newberg, Oregon. Image credit: National Weather Service/Wikimedia Commons.


Hurricane High Wind

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 492. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

music is a great form of communication she has great taste I like all music except country cant do that for the like of me


My mom took me to see Garth Brooks in New Orleans two years ago, but that's as far as I'll go. I'm not really much of an embodied Southern stereotype, haha.
Doesn't look like Nicole will be a hurricane as far north as Faith managed to make it.
Not moving fast enough.
Wait and see?
Quoting 502. swflurker:

Doesn't look like Nicole will be a hurricane as far north as Faith managed to make it.
Not moving fast enough.
Wait and see?


I doubt Faith was tropical at 60N. HURDAT will definitely refine that.
Might be on our way to a record then?
BTW, didn't see you on the video's from Melbourne. Was hopping to see you fly by! LOL

Quoting 503. KoritheMan:



I doubt Faith was tropical at 60N. HURDAT will definitely refine that.
Quoting 504. swflurker:

Might be on our way to a record then?
BTW, didn't see you on the video's from Melbourne. Was hopping to see you fly by! LOL




haha, well I certainly wasn't able to stand up very well! I have no idea how to upload videos from my phone. That's why I haven't showed you guys anything.
Cagayan province the projected landfall for Haima.

Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST October 17 2016
=======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haima (955 hPa) located at 13.3N 135.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 15.3N 130.8E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.6N 125.7E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.6N 120.0E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South China Sea

South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sarika (965 hPa) located at 17.4N 113.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 19.0N 110.0E - 75 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Overland Hainan Island
48 HRS: 20.8N 107.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Gulf Of Tonkin
72 HRS: 21.9N 106.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Quoting 500. BaltimoreBrian:

The 2 a.m. outlook has a change of direction...

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over
the Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic waters is associated with
a surface trough that is interacting with an upper-level low.
Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for significant
development, but they could become more conducive for tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation by Tuesday or Wednesday when the
system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
yes this one needs to be watched closely
Quoting 482. masiello3:

Would be surprised to see any of these remaining storms reach hurricane status but if one gets an anti cyclone form over it we could see some meaningfully strong organization occur.

See post 468. stormpetrol:



look at that anticyclone in the SW Caribbean with shear on the decrease


Describe.
Really impressive:

Quoting 507. LargoFl:

yes this one needs to be watched closely


Look at the forecast for the weekend. Cooler weather which means a cold front making all the way down into FL. Anything that develops will get directed off to the NE later in the week.
Quoting 511. Bucsboltsfan:



Look at the forecast for the weekend. Cooler weather which means a cold front making all the way down into FL. Anything that develops will get directed off to the NE later in the week.
yes doesn't look like a threat for us.
Quoting 502. swflurker:

Doesn't look like Nicole will be a hurricane as far north as Faith managed to make it.
Not moving fast enough.
Wait and see?


But I do like seeing northern Greenland and Svalbard islands on the NHC graphics even if no record is set.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nicole, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
central and southeastern Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic
waters is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with
an upper-level low. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but they could become more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday or
Wednesday when the system begins to drift northward or
north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next
day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
We might break a record today in Chicagoland if it really gets up to 81° as forecast. Normal temperature range is 43° to 63°.
Nicole hanging in there. Now with a more upright tail, looking a bit like an extended bass clef:


Try again, might work this time:

Quoting 515. ChiThom:

We might break a record today in Chicagoland if it really gets up to 81° as forecast. Normal temperature range is 43° to 63°.


Enjoy it because temperatures will be in the 30s in your area by Friday.
Still a hurricane, but getting that extratropical appearance.

Quoting 520. win1gamegiantsplease:

Still a hurricane, but getting that extratropical appearance.




My guess is the strongest winds are not near the center and on the back side of the system. It's getting very questionable whether the system should be called a "hurricane."
Looking like a well wrapped up high latitude cyclone.
Quoting 521. Sfloridacat5:



My guess is the strongest winds are not near the center and on the back side of the system. It's getting very questionable whether the system should be called a "hurricane."
Looking like a well wrapped up high latitude cyclone.


Who knows, Post season analysis miiiiiiiiight reveal that Nicole became Extratropical 2 days ago or so.
Nocole's cold front extends all the way to the system trying to form in the Bahamas.
Well, it sure is boring around here. Thought I might spice things up a bit with my Winter Storm Naming List for this year.

Ahriman: Chaos Sorcerer from the Thousand Sons legion. Pronounced air-ih-man

Badrukk: Ork Flash Git Kaptin\Captain. Pronounced bad-ruck

Calgar: Papa smurf, Lord Macragge, Chapter master of the Ultramarines. Pronounced kahl-gar

Drogan: Inquisitor from the game Warhammer 40,000 Space Marine. Pronounced droh-gahn

Eidolon: One of the eleven lord commanders of the Emperor's Children Legion during the Great Crusade and Horus Heresy. Pronounced ei-doh-lohn

Ferrus: Ferrus Manus, Primarch of the Iron Hands. Pronounced Feh-ruhs

Gorgutz: Ork Warboss in Dawn of War Winter Assault, Dark Crusade, and Soulstorm. Will also appear in Dawn of War 3. Pronounced gore-guts

Horus: Horus Lupercal, warmaster, started the Horus Heresy. Mortally wounded the Emperor at the battle of Terra at the climax of the Heresy. Pronounced ho-rus

Indrick: Indrick Boreale, commander of the Blood Ravens in Dawn of War Soulstorm. Speaks oddly. Pronounced ihn-drick

Jaghatai: Jaghatai Khan, primarch of the White Scars. Pronounced ja-gah-tai

Khorne: Chaos God, also known as The Blood God or the Lord of Skulls. Pronounced corn

Lorgar: Primarch of the Word Bearers. Pronounced lohr-gahr

Malal: Fifth, lesser known Chaos God. Pronounced Mah-lahl

Nurgle: Chaos God, also known as Papa Nurgle or Grandfather Nurgle. Pronounced nur-gul

Or'es'ka: Tau Commander from Dawn of War Soulstorm. Pronounced or-es-kah

Perturabo: Primarch of the Iron Warriors. Pronounced pehrt-er-a-boh

Qruze: Iacton Qruze, Captain of the Luna Wolves\Sons of Horus 3rd company. Pronounced Cruise

Russ: Leman Russ, primarch of the Space Wolves. Pronounced Ruhss

Sidonus: Veteran Sergeant Sidonus from the game Warhammer 40,000 Space marine. Pronounced sid-own-us

Thule: Davian Thule, commander of the Blood Ravens from the games Dawn of War Dark Crusade
and Dawn of war 2. Became a dreadnaught at the end of Dawn of War 2. Pronounced Fool

Uriel: Uriel Ventris, captain of the Ultramarines 4th company. Pronounced err-ee-ehl

Varro: Varro Tigurius, chief librarian of the Ultramarines. Pronounced vah-roh

Webway: The Eldar Webway, what they use for travel. Pronounced web-way

Xenos: What the Space Marines call their enemies. Pronounced zee-nohs

Yarrick: Commissar Yarrick, an expert on Orks. Pronounced yahr-rick

Zahndrekh: Necron Overlord of the Sautehk Dynasty. Pronounced zan-drek

The minimum criteria is a Winter Weather Advisory or Freezing Rain Advisory. But if a Winter Storm Watch is issued first, the storm is named.

I only name storms that prompt watches, warnings and advisories for the NWS Paducah CWA.

Quoting 519. Sfloridacat5:



Enjoy it because temperatures will be in the 30s in your area by Friday.


You mean about 39°? Could be. I don't mind.
According to WU, our Friday temperatures will bottom out at about 43 with a high of 55
Quoting 525. ChiThom:



You mean about 39? Could be. I don't mind.


Yeah, GFS is showing mid 30s for the northern suburbs and upper 30s down near Chicago. That could possibly break records in January here.
I'm hoping we never see any 30s this Winter here.

My friend's job sent him to Chicago. After his first Winter he demanded to be moved or he would quit the company. You have to really like cold weather to make it though a Chicago Winter.
Quoting 496. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

o yeah its coming I figure in 2 weeks we should start too see the first of the snow flakes around here that will be the first week of nov right after Halloween right on time
got to get snow blower tuned up this week tighten everything up replace the sliders on the bottom and change out the oil already got the shovels and salt boxes out of the storage in basement cleaned and ready end of last week on Friday


DC metro sees its first snowflakes in November most years.

#beautifulplanet. Click to enlarge - a lot.

Left : Sarika. Right : Haima. Screenshot (Oct.17, 0800 UTC - 6h ago). Source : RAMMB-CIRA / Himawari-8
If you have the time and bandwidth, follow this link to load the full disk, insanely high-res picture. Should take at least several minutes to load even with a speedy connection, but might be worth it.
*heavy breathing in Florida*

Quoting 527. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, GFS is showing mid 13s for the northern suburbs and upper 30s down near Chicago. That could possibly break records in January here.
I'm hoping we never see any 30s this Winter here.

My friend's job sent him to Chicago. After his first Winter he demanded to be moved or he would quit the company. You have to really like cold weather to make it though a Chicago Winter.


I've never lived in a place with truly deepfreeze winters. PSU was the coldest I experienced in the late 70s. But I found in Florida I missed winter and was happy to move back to DC in 1987.

And I got my reintroduction Nov 11, 1987 in the Veterans day snowstorm 12-18" fell in about eight hours in the southeastern suburbs, less northwest. Got stuck in a deep semihard ice rut on Branch avenue under Suitland Parkway.. took 10 minutes to get out but I think I got sympathy from my Florida plates. I wasn't carrying my winter extraction shovel yet.
Quite weird!

Going to be VERY warm today, possibly record warm here in the Queen City of the West.

84 today and 86 tommorow!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 527. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, GFS is showing mid 30s for the northern suburbs and upper 30s down near Chicago. That could possibly break records in January here.
I'm hoping we never see any 30s this Winter here.

My friend's job sent him to Chicago. After his first Winter he demanded to be moved or he would quit the company. You have to really like cold weather to make it though a Chicago Winter.


Yeah, we get the best of both worlds, hot in the summertime and cold in the wintertime.
Quoting 532. Cyclone2016:

Quite weird!

Going to be VERY warm today, possibly record warm here in the Queen City of the West.

84 today and 86 tommorow!


I had to look it up. Cincinnati.