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A Warm Kickoff to Autumn Across Eastern U.S.

By: Bob Henson 10:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2016

Last month was the ninth warmest September for the contiguous 48 U.S. states in records going back to 1895, according to the monthly national climate summary released by NOAA on Wednesday. While temperatures were close to average from the Great Basin to the West Coast, the central and eastern U.S. had an uncommonly warm segue to meteorological autumn. The states of Iowa, Louisiana, and every state east of the Mississippi except for Tennessee and South Carolina had a top-ten-warmest September, and it was the hottest September on record for Ohio. Average minimum temperatures (nighttime lows) were the warmest for any September in Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, as well as the District of Columbia.

This toasty month followed the fifth hottest U.S. summer on record. September 2015 was the second warmest on record for the contiguous U.S., and it’s now been a full decade since the nation last saw a cooler-than-average September (2006).


Figure 1. Statewide rankings for average temperature during September 2016, as compared to each September since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 122 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. Statewide rankings for average precipitation during September 2016, as compared to each September since 1895. Darker shades of green indicate higher rankings for moisture, with 1 denoting the driest month on record and 122 the wettest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Precipitation in September: Another mixed bag
The national patchwork of sogginess and drought that emerged this past summer underwent some shifts in September. Even before Hurricane Matthew arrived, the Atlantic states from South Carolina to Delaware got much-needed moisture in September (too much, in some cases). It was also a very wet September from the northern Rockies to Upper Midwest. The states of North Dakota, Delaware, and South Carolina each had a top-ten wettest September. Northeast Iowa and parts of adjoining states were walloped by thunderstorm complexes in late September that led to record flood crests in some areas. More than 5000 homes were affected in the Cedar Rapids area, where the flood crest exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval. A massive sandbagging effort in the Cedar Rapids area--which had been devastated by a flood in 2008--helped reduce the damage somewhat this time around.


Figure 3. Floodwaters in late September 2016 surround the Veterans Memorial Building, which was heavily damaged by the city’s devastating 2008 flood. The building housed the Cedar Rapids City Hall from 1927 until 2008. The new location of City Hall, several blocks away, was closed after basement flooding occured during the September 2016 flood. Image credit: City of Cedar Rapids.


A regional drought intensified from New York through New England, with Maine having a top-ten-driest September. As of October 4, the coastal stretch from southeast and central Massachusetts to central Maine was in extreme drought, with moderate to severe drought covering most of the rest of New York and New England, according to the weekly Drought Monitor from October 6. (Rains of 2” - 4” associated with Matthew over Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts may put a modest dent in the drought there.) It was also unusually dry across the lower Mississippi Valley, Colorado, and the West Coast states of Oregon and California (where September is normally a fairly dry month).


Figure 4. Hannah Swanson, assistant wine maker, samples some of the grapes being harvested at Fresh Tracks Farm Vineyard & Winery in Berlin, VT, on October 3, 2016. The dry summer weather was ideal for growing grapes in some spots in the Northeast, but the drought in southern New England and parts of New York may have decreased the crop. Image credit: AP Photo/Lisa Rathke.

Mediocre is better than awful: California wraps up water year 2015-16 and looks ahead
Precipitation for the water year 2015-16 (extending from October to September) wound up very near average for California--a relief after four years of unremitting drought. However, the statewide water-year total obscures the drying effects of continued very warm temperatures, as well as a marked a north-to-south divide: rains were generous from central California northward, while southern California largely missed out on El Niño’s bounty. Downtown Los Angeles picked up only 5.85” for the water year, compared to an average of 11.09”. San Francisco racked up a respectable 23.10”, less than half an inch below the long-term average of 23.65”.

California’s reservoirs, concentrated in the north half of the state, were only at about 80% of average capacity on September 30 (see Figure 5 below), thanks in large part to an earlier-than-average meltout of a less-than-extravagant snowpack. The state’s forests are continuing to suffer from the effects of a half-decade of drought, which has led to an estimated 66 million dead trees. “The accumulated effects of drought and warmer temperatures are likely to leave forests susceptible to diseases, pests, and further drought conditions,” wrote Jay Lund in the California WaterBlog. “There is little that water managers can do to affect drought impacts to forests, although this might be one of the drought’s biggest and most long-lasting effects.”

What about water year 2016-17? Californians are understandably leery about drawing conclusions from El Niño and La Niña, given the disappointing outcome of El Niño in Southern California this past water year. For what it’s worth, NOAA has cancelled its La Niña watch for 2016-17. Last month it pegged the odds of La Niña at around 40% for this autumn, dropping to around 30 - 35% by winter. While below 50%, those odds are far from nonzero. Temperatures in the benchmark Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific are down to -0.9°C below average, according to Monday’s weekly update from NOAA, and the cooler-than-average waters now extend below 100 meters (330 feet) throughout most of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Also consistent with La Niña: Rainfall has increased across Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent.

Nicole continues to intensify en route to Bermuda
Hurricane Nicole is barrelling toward a potential direct hit on Bermuda. Nicole's top sustained winds were up to 110 mph as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, and Nicole is predicted to become a Category 3 storm tonight before weakening slightly as it approaches the island on Thursday. Direct hurricane strikes are quite unusual for Bermuda, and it's also uncommon to have a hurricane intensifying so close to an encounter with the island. We'll be back with a full update with Nicole on Thursday morning. See our post from Wednesday morning for more background on Nicole and on Bermuda's hurricane history.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. California reservoir levels as of September 30, 2016. Values shown for each reservoir are percentage of capacity (left/blue value) and percentage of the historical average for the time of year (right/red value).

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nicole looking her best so far.

Watch out Bermuda.

Thanks Bob! What is the deal with Ohio's heat? Glad to see CA not as dry but... all those dead dying trees with fire season starting is not good. Hope some of the NW moisture finds its way down south, a nice cut off low would do the trick.
Wonderful Fall weather here.. mornings down around 60f BURRRRR! Gonna have to consider socks with my flip flops if this keeps up.
no more mention of the sw carib.......good news....except for the lack of rain...
Busy prepping for Songpa's feathery tail - reports are planning for some rain, mostly fire weather, and high to dangerous winds across the passes. NVEnergy is doing some line work up the street, but we wish Asplundh would figure out that cutting off branches along our lines at the absolute minimum leaves main trunk divisions in the cottonwoods that when they fall, they take out a bunch of stuff.

So glad we took out those two nasty cottonwoods upwind of the house. Power's going out soon so they can finish their linework, I'll be back tonight.

Thank you, guys, for the update!
Thanks Dr. Henson, I think it is safe to say the 9th warmest September since 1895 for the CONUS can be attributed in part to the strong ridge of high pressure that was originally anchored over the central parts of the U.S. By the end of the month the high shifted east over the Northeast U.S. and helped steer Hurricane Matthew to making landfall in the U.S. The subtropical ridge also held firm. There wasn't as much troughiness along the east coast in September that we had seen the past couple of years as well.

After Nicole our attention will shift to the SW Caribbean in response to a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean Sea combining with an upward motion of the MJO in the Western Atlantic. It remains to be seen how strong this system will get as the atmosphere aloft looks to be unfavorable with strong westerly shear being created by a strong high pressure building in once again across the CONUS and given the size of this potential system may take awhile to consolidate.

The tropical wave has just past the Lesser Antilles according to the latest surface analysis chart.

Quoting 3. 19N81W:

no more mention of the sw carib.......good news....except for the lack of rain...



Oh no that threat of tc genesis is still there, but it is far out. Plus you gotta change the topic once in a while.
Quoting 3. 19N81W:

no more mention of the sw carib.......good news....except for the lack of rain...

Uh, that's still possible. This particular blog isn't surrounding that.
Quoting 1. Tornado6042008X:

Nicole looking her best so far.

Watch out Bermuda.




Recon is probably going to find a Cat 3 or 4...
Recon getting closer:

Nicole's coordinates even spell doom! haha

...Nicole strengthens as it takes aim on Bermuda...
Summary of 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...29.2n 66.6w
about 240 mi...385 km SSW of Bermuda
maximum sustained winds...110 mph...175 km/h
present movement...N or 10 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...962 mb...28.41 inches
Quoting 7. HurricaneAndre:

Uh, that's still possible. This particular blog isn't surrounding that.

What does he mean to more mention of SW Carribean??? It never went away lol
Quoting 6. isothunder67:



Oh no that threat of tc genesis is still there, but it is far out. Plus you gotta change the topic once in a while.

It moved up in time (18z) GFS..sooner as of that run
Nicole's doing well now that her brother Matthew is out of the picture.

Very nice entry. Thanks for the enjoyable read, gents.
Quoting 2. JNFlori30A:

[...]Wonderful Fall weather here.. mornings down around 60f BURRRRR! Gonna have to consider socks with my flip flops if this keeps up.


Let's trade? You can give me some of those summerlike conditions. I can give you my socks, since I don't need them yet with flip flops. It's no colder than 35 F currently at my balcony. The combination of socks and flip flops may be necessary, once the temps reach 10 F.
Nicole's T-Numbers are near 6.0.
Quoting 8. Articuno:



Recon is probably going to find a Cat 3 or 4...
What a gorgeous storm, those types of eyes are the most beautiful, large and symmetric.
Quoting 3. 19N81W:

no more mention of the sw carib.......good news....except for the lack of rain...



definitely still possible as all the major forecast models are showing a low pressure system in the Western Caribbean next week
000
WTNT35 KNHC 122333
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
800 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
Quoting 1. Tornado6042008X:

Nicole looking her best so far.

Watch out Bermuda.




Bermuda is well used to hurricanes, a Cat3 is no problem.
Quoting 3. 19N81W:

no more mention of the sw carib.......good news....except for the lack of rain...



I noticed that. I guess he's not that interested in it anymore.
Those of you on the Pacific Northwest are going to get some wicked weather. Please keep us informed.

14-6-3.
Quoting 21. HurricaneAndre:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 122333
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
800 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


Technically, this is the first above average season for years.
Hello All..

Euro/CMC-I really hope these models drop this potential storm they are showing in long range threatening the east coast..

Meanwhile..more foolishness from residents refusing to leave..this dam if break could flood three counties..

Updated 1 hr 28 mins ago
VASS, NC (WTVD) --
While Woodlake Dam has been stabilized, Governor Pat McCrory again on Wednesday warned residents below the weakened structure who have been ordered to evacuate to leave.

"We've had too many deaths. Get out!" he said. "Once that water flows it's too late."
State dam inspectors and Moore County officials announced a truck-sized leak in the eastern Moore County dam that holds back Lake Surf late Monday night.

More than 30 members of the National Guard have put sandbags in front of floodgates, in attempt to stabilize the dam. That has diverted water away from the damaged section on the spillway.

Johnny Perhealth lives in a house directly below the dam and Lake Surf which is surrounded by the Woodlake development.

"Them telling you, you got to leave your house - it should be up to the people," he said. "I want to, if I die I want to die at home. I don't want to die somewhere else because the man told me told me I couldn't stay at my house. I pay my taxes. I should have the right to stay at home."

Perhealth said had to go into the nearby town of vass to reopen his hardware store. He too was told he wouldn't be able to return home, but he was unfazed.

"I'm going to get home," Perhealth said. "I'm going to get home one way or another if I have to walk on water like Jesus."

14-6-3
Quoting 26. ThisIsNotSparta:


Technically, this is the first above average season for years.


No technicality needed. 2016 is the most active hurricane season since 2012 in terms of named storm count, ACE, number of major hurricanes, et cetera.
Quoting 23. Bucsboltsfan:



I noticed that. I guess he's not that interested in it anymore.


Or this is just a post that has nothing to do with tropical weather
Nicole is the first "N" storm out of 14 to reach major hurricane status. Only letters left are T and V
Quoting 22. MahFL:



Bermuda is well used to hurricanes, a Cat3 is no problem.

A cat 3 for any place is a problem...
33. SLU

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...

14-6-3
Quoting 30. Hurricanes101:



Or this is just a post that has nothing to do with tropical weather


We're just waiting for Nicole to reach Bermuda, which was outlined last post, and otherwise, no notable activity. Sure, there's the system that could form in the Caribbean, but it is too far out right now.
Recon now descending, not long until they'll be in the center!
Quoting 32. Weatherfan1013:


A cat 3 for any place is a problem...
He also said that since Taiwan is use to strong Typhoons the one that affected them this past summer was no biggie.
Quoting 31. RockinghamRob:

Nicole is the first "N" storm out if 14 to reach major hurricane status. Only letters left are T and V
The letter V is the remaining holdout to have a name retire too.
Any word or graphics concerning the possible system in the NW Caribbean that could form?
Quoting 38. lobdelse81:

Any word or graphics concerning the possible system in the NW Caribbean that could form?
Yes, add this to your bookmarks
No live reporters in Bermuda?
Quoting 40. MeteorologistTV:

No live reporters in Bermuda?



i think there all burn out from mat
Quoting 33. SLU:

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...

14-6-3
My season guess is 16-9-4. This gets me closer, but I did not want a major developing near and moving towards Bermuda.
What do you think the replacement for Matthew will be? I think the names Mario, Marvin, Mark would be cool choices :-)
Quoting 37. allancalderini:

The letter V is the remaining holdout to have a name retire too.
Quoting 43. lobdelse81:

What do you think the replacement for Matthew will be? I think the names Mario, Marvin, Mark would be cool choices :-)


Melvin will be a good one as well.
Plane's going in but looks to be a little greater than a CAT3 on satellite, IMO.
46. SLU
Quoting 42. BaltimoreBrian:

My season guess is 16-9-4. This gets me closer, but I did not want a major developing near and moving towards Bermuda.


My numbers are 17-9-4 ACE 140. In mid-September when Karl was struggling in the MDR, those numbers looked like they would bust. Right now, we could get very close.
Pressure at 956 and they are not at the center
Quoting 43. lobdelse81:

What do you think the replacement for Matthew will be? I think the names Mario, Marvin, Mark would be cool choices :-)

Depends on the country who request retirement of all the ones affected. I imagine the states will be the one so a name in English. Mark, Mason and and Max. I doubt Mario will be used as it was the replacement for Manuel in the Epac.
SW of the eye wall

961mb
81 knots
(~ 93.2 mph)

956.2mb lowest pressure so far with non-suspect surface winds of 81kts.
AF301 is now in the air out of Biloxi, heading to Nicole.

"Mission 4"

"Mission 3" is now in Nicole
Gotta pick a nit: what does "While below 50%, those odds are far from nonzero. " mean? Seems like 50% is non-zero, and far from zero -- but I'm not a statistician! :-)
Quoting 31. RockinghamRob:

Nicole is the first "N" storm out of 14 to reach major hurricane status. Only letters left are T and V

I'm surprised by that I would think that N storms would be able to get to major hurricane status. T and V make sense though.
Another one challenging the intensity forecast.
55. SLU
56. V26R



Nicole's Eye really looks nasty!, Bermuda looks like its about to move into the nasty stuff!
Looks like the last pass had reporting issues. No data transmitted.
They found a 952.3mb pressure in the center of the storm.
59. V26R
Deleted! Ahhh Man, Computer is fighting me again tonight!
Quoting 52. CaneFreeCR:

Gotta pick a nit: what does "While below 50%, those odds are far from nonzero. " mean? Seems like 50% is non-zero, and far from zero -- but I'm not a statistician! :-)



Sounds like somebody should have used the word "clearly" or "certainly" instead of "far from" - was probably thinking of zero instead of non-zero and got mixed up. Reminds me of one you always see: "I could care less" when what the person obviously means is "I couldn't care less."
952.3mb lowest pressure this pass and non-suspect surface winds of 99kts. Looks like the NHC nailed the major hurricane call. :)
I didn't do an ACE guess SLU, but the season up to 112.4025 as of 5 p.m. and will go up a at least a full point at 11 p.m.
Looks like 952mb
NHC's estimate
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Recon
Min pressure: 952.3 mb
Max sustained: 113 mph

Not bad at all.
65. V26R

Okay Lets try this again!!!

Link
Quoting 31. RockinghamRob:

Nicole is the first "N" storm out of 14 to reach major hurricane status. Only letters left are T and V
Tomas????
Quoting 48. allancalderini:

Depends on the country who request retirement of all the ones affected. I imagine the states will be the one so a name in English. Mark, Mason and and Max. I doubt Mario will be used as it was the replacement for Manuel in the Epac.

Like Mario, Max is also in use in the EPac, scheduled for next year. I'd prefer Mark/Marcus, Morris, and Miles, maybe Martin.
68. SLU
Quoting 62. BaltimoreBrian:

I didn't do an ACE guess SLU, but the season up to 112.4025 as of 5 p.m. and will go up a at least a full point at 11 p.m.


Yeah and if Nicole makes a run at category 4 status (hopefully only after it passes BDA), that could jack us up to 125+ with potential Caribbean development still looming.
69. V26R
Hey Nash you on here???
70. SLU
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:

Tomas????



Tomas maxed out at 85kts, 982mb.

How did you fare during Matthew?
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:

Tomas????



Was only a Cat 2
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:

Tomas????



Cat 2 peak but retired.
Quoting 44. Weatherfan1013:


Melvin will be a good one as well.


Or Millhouse. I mean, everything's coming up Millhouse.
eye is appears to be contracting a bit and becoming better defined.

Forgive my memory but who is it that made the poll on the blog's seasonal forecast?
We'll have two planes in tonight.
Quoting 75. LemieT:

Forgive my memory but who is it that made the poll on the blog's seasonal forecast?



Maxweather
78. V26R
Hey Taz, are you here??
Quoting 77. ChiThom:



Maxweather


Ah yes, thank you. Will be interesting to see how close the average gets to the actual numbers.
80. V26R


Miss Nicole trying to take after Matt! Starting to look big and Nasty!
On the northeastern edge of the deep convection

29.967N 66.250W

SFMR
87.1 knots (~ 100.3 mph)
Category Two Hurricane
Blah Blah Blah So anyway whats the latest model runs showing for the Caribbean disturbance?
Quoting 79. LemieT:



Ah yes, thank you. Will be interesting to see how close the average gets to the actual numbers.


I think lots of people hit the nail on the head, including me (I think). Lots of blue ribbons were handed out; hooray everyone's a winner!

Quoting 73. LostTomorrows:



Or Millhouse. I mean, everything's coming up Millhouse.


Nobody likes Milhouse!
84. V26R
Hey Pulse, have you seen anything from Nash36 after Matt hit him?
Quoting 84. V26R:

Hey Pulse, have you seen anything from Nash36 after Matt hit him?


No but I have not been here either. Had to take a break after the scare from Matthew.
86. V26R


BMS has this posted on their site!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 0:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2016
Storm Name: Nicole (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 0:15:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°39'N 66°32'W (29.65N 66.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 statute miles (339 km) to the SSW (210°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,713m (8,901ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 81kts (~ 93.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 310° at 89kts (From the NW at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SSW (211°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 109kts (~ 125.4mph) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 0:24:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 40° at 11kts (From the NE at 13mph)
88. V26R
Quoting 85. ProgressivePulse:



No but I have not been here either. Had to take a break after the scare from Matthew.


Okay thanks, Hope Him and Tig are okay! They were in The Nasty Zone for him!
Dropsonde measured 114kt surface winds.....! Cat 4 incoming? Link
Quoting 44. Weatherfan1013:


Melvin will be a good one as well.


Melvin?
Another dropsonde measured 955mb with 11kt winds - likely 954-955mb pressure - Link
Quoting 89. Envoirment:

Dropsonde measured 114kt surface winds.....! Cat 4 incoming? Link


Unflagged?
94. V26R
Quoting 90. win1gamegiantsplease:



Melvin?


Magnum???
Quoting 81. ProgressivePulse:

On the northeastern edge of the deep convection

29.967N 66.250W

SFMR
87.1 knots (~ 100.3 mph)
Category Two Hurricane

They haven't completed the mission will probably find higher winds on the right side
Songda's doppelganger!

Nicole

Songda

Nicole not far from being an annular hurricane.

Nash was here. He's cleaning-up and not being cheerful. :-(
99. V26R
Quoting 98. ChiThom:

Nash was here. He's cleaning-up and not being cheerful. :-(


Thanks Thom!
100. JLPR2
Quoting 89. Envoirment:

Dropsonde measured 114kt surface winds.....! Cat 4 incoming? Link


So with the dropsonde info looks like a 130mph cat 4 with a 955mb pressure.
Does the NHC usually go with dropsonde info for winds?
Quoting 95. MrTornadochase:


They haven't completed the mission will probably find higher winds on the right side


They've already found non-suspect surface winds of 99kts via SMFR and have a dropsonde that measured 114kts (Link) and another 100kts (Link) at surface level.
103. V26R
Quoting 101. Grothar:




Gro, don't you be posting anything coming up the Eastern Seaboard!
Quoting 89. Envoirment:

Dropsonde measured 114kt surface winds.....! Cat 4 incoming? Link


Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 113 knots (130 mph)

I don't think that is the surface wind.
105. JLPR2
Quoting 104. Hurricanes101:



Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 113 knots (130 mph)

I don't think that is the surface wind.


Quoting 104. Hurricanes101:



Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 113 knots (130 mph)

I don't think that is the surface wind.


Sorry link went to the newest dropsonde for some reason. Click on the menu at the top and scroll down to the 133kt/114kt one - Link

I think that link will work now.
Nicole a CAT 3
108. SLU
This could rival Fabian 2003

15L/MH/N/C3
Quoting 100. JLPR2:



So with the dropsonde info looks like a 130mph cat 4 with a 955mb pressure.
Does the NHC usually go with dropsonde info for winds?


From my understanding dropsondes were the reason for upgrading Matthew to a 5/keeping him as a 4 for a long while etc. The place where they dropped it is the most intense part of the eyewall convection-wise at the moment too. Plus, what's the point in dropping them if you aren't going to use the wind data? Wind extrapolation can only do so much - which is why they use dropsondes to get a better idea of the winds.

I'm expecting the NHC to be a bit conservative and put Nicole as ~954-952mb with 105-110kt winds next update (unless the next recon pass gives more ~115kt+ high surface winds via dropsondes/SFMR).
111. V26R
Quoting 22. MahFL:



Bermuda is well used to hurricanes, a Cat3 is no problem.
lets see cat 4 take it up a notch
113. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 11h11 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The Atlantic has generated more ACE this October than in August-September combined - 1st time since 1963 that this has occurred. #Nicole
Quoting 62. BaltimoreBrian:

I didn't do an ACE guess SLU, but the season up to 112.4025 as of 5 p.m. and will go up a at least a full point at 11 p.m.


Hi Brian, weatherbell has ACE at just over 119 at the moment Link

Nicole should bring us near 125 or higher by the time she kicks the bucket.
Quoting 113. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 11h11 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The Atlantic has generated more ACE this October than in August-September combined - 1st time since 1963 that this has occurred. #Nicole

Didn't this happen in 2014? I thought it did.
Quoting 101. Grothar:



Where to get those models?
117. JLPR2
Quoting 110. Envoirment:



From my understanding dropsondes were the reason for upgrading Matthew to a 5/keeping him as a 4 for a long while etc. The place where they dropped it is the most intense part of the eyewall convection-wise at the moment too. Plus, what's the point in dropping them if you aren't going to use the wind data? Wind extrapolation can only do so much - which is why they use dropsondes to get a better idea of the winds.

I'm expecting the NHC to be a bit conservative and put Nicole as ~954-952mb with 105-110kt winds next update (unless the next recon pass gives more ~115kt+ high surface winds via dropsondes/SFMR).


Still 2hrs until the next advisory, plenty of time to get another pass and few dropsondes so that seems likely.
118. V26R
Keeper, YGWM
Quoting 103. V26R:



Gro, don't you be posting anything coming up the Eastern Seaboard!


I'll hold off as long as I can.
120. V26R
Quoting 119. Grothar:



I'll hold off as long as I can.


Thanks Buddy!!! Just don't want anything crazy happening to you like the last time!
15L/MH/N/C4
122. SLU
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5h5 hours ago
Major #hurricanes (>=Category 3) w/i 30 n mi of #Bermuda are rare. Only 7 on record, w/2 of them dropping to Cat 2 before impact. #Nicole
124. SLU
Quoting 115. HurricaneFan:


Didn't this happen in 2014? I thought it did.


It might have in truth with Fay and Gonzalo both in October.
@ SLU

We took a beating, but the restoration process is underway. Most importantly, no one was killed.
Nicole looks like she may be a category 4.I think the last time the Atlantic saw two back to back category 4's were in 2010 with Igor and Julia.
127. SLU
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

@ SLU

We took a beating, but the restoration process is underway. Most importantly, no one was killed.



Okay good luck.

Where does Matthew rank for you on a personal level in terms of its sheer power?
Quoting 123. Grothar:


Naughty Nicole.

It sure does look like Bermuda is the bullseye for Nicole's eye.

Songda showing the effects of sub par SSTs as it heads under the axis of the Pacific jet stream.
Nicole is a major hurricane with 115MPH sustained winds, and looks like it is still intensifying.

Thoughts to Bermuda, hope you are prepared.

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is still active, in mid-October!

We might see 2 more named storms form after Nicole.

Radars lighting up from Seattle down to Eureka as Round One comes in tonight and tomorrow on the nose of a strengthening jet pulling a moisture plume from Songda way back by the Dateline.
Can't get much better in terms of structure for Nicole. Eyes that big are quite stunning. Truly a beautiful storm, but it makes it all the more dangerous. Anyone in the way needs to take every possible precaution and then some.
Quoting 43. lobdelse81:

What do you think the replacement for Matthew will be? I think the names Mario, Marvin, Mark would be cool choices :-)



I'm thinking Mark and Marvin too. Also maybe Manny, Moe, or Maurice.

Anybody think Earl, Hermine, or Nicole could be retired too?

Asian jet along the southern boundary of a "polar vortex" developing over Siberia where temperatures are dropping faster than they are over the ice free areas of the Arctic Ocean. Transitioning Typhoon Songda is accelerating into the Pacific jet, in its right entrance sector.
Quoting 113. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 11h11 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The Atlantic has generated more ACE this October than in August-September combined - 1st time since 1963 that this has occurred. #Nicole


And October isn't even halfway over
Quoting 134. RockinghamRob:



I'm thinking Mark and Marvin too. Also maybe Manny, Moe, or Maurice.

Anybody think Earl, Hermine, or Nicole could be retired too?


Eh I doubt it.
951.9 so far this pass.
Quoting 109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

15L/MH/N/C3


WOW !
FXCN31 CWHX 130000
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.41 PM ADT
Wednesday 12 October 2016.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 29.6 N and
longitude 66.4 W, about 188 nautical miles or 349 km south-southwest
of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 100 knots (185
km/h) and central pressure at 956 MB. Nicole is moving
north-northeast at 9 knots (17 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Oct 12 9.00 PM 29.6N 66.4W 956 100 185
Oct 13 9.00 AM 31.7N 65.3W 956 100 185
Oct 13 9.00 PM 33.8N 63.0W 960 95 176
Oct 14 9.00 AM 35.8N 60.0W 965 90 167
Oct 14 9.00 PM 37.5N 56.9W 965 80 148
Oct 15 9.00 AM 38.7N 54.3W 961 75 139
Oct 15 9.00 PM 39.7N 52.4W 958 75 139
Oct 16 9.00 AM 39.9N 51.2W 955 70 130 post-tropical
Oct 16 9.00 PM 39.5N 50.6W 954 65 120 post-tropical
Oct 17 9.00 AM 38.8N 50.4W 954 60 111 post-tropical
Oct 17 9.00 PM 38.7N 51.1W 954 55 102 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Nicole has intensified to a category 3 hurricane over 29 degree sea
surface temperatures approaching Bermuda from the south. The storm's
circulation can be seen on radar approaching Bermuda this evening.

B. Prognostic

Most computer models predict some further intensification as Nicole
passes near Bermuda Thursday afternoon. Thereafter the storm will
accelerate northeastward and expand significantly as it approaches
the Grand Banks off Newfoundland. Most computer models predict the
large storm to stay well offshore this weekend, but with wind and
wave impacts over the Grand Banks. The northernmost track is
suggested by the CMC global model which would bring some wind over
Newfoundland. We will continue to monitor this storm.

Cyclone phase space from several models indicates that Nicole will
not complete traditional extratropical transition but remain warm
core - almost "subtropical" in nature.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time gales storms hurricane
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
13/00Z 140 120 90 120 70 60 40 50 40 40 25 25
13/12Z 150 140 100 130 70 70 55 60 40 30 30 30
14/00Z 170 170 120 140 85 85 70 75 50 35 25 30
14/12Z 210 210 150 170 100 100 90 90 60 45 15 30
15/00Z 220 220 180 210 120 120 110 110 70 50 15 30
15/12Z 280 265 205 255 120 120 120 120 70 55 20 40
16/00Z 310 270 210 300 130 125 130 130 80 60 30 40
16/12Z 350 280 220 340 140 140 130 140 80 60 30 50
17/00Z 360 280 230 350 150 140 140 150 80 60 30 50
17/12Z 360 280 230 350 150 140 140 150 0 0 0 0
18/00Z 360 280 230 350 150 140 140 150 0 0 0 0


END/FOGARTY/HATT/MURTHA
Quoting 134. RockinghamRob:



I'm thinking Mark and Marvin too. Also maybe Manny, Moe, or Maurice.

Anybody think Earl, Hermine, or Nicole could be retired too?

I dont think so very low chances of hermine retiring there and maybe nicole but the one who has the highest chance is earl.
110 Knot winds. wow.
143. SLU
951mb . Big big storm


Quoting 116. Weatherfan1013:


Where to get those models?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Quoting 128. Tornado6042008X:

Naughty Nicole.
Sure is not playing games, eye is huge, and barreling for Bermuda.
Quoting 137. SSL1441:



Eh I doubt it.
Quoting 134. RockinghamRob:



I'm thinking Mark and Marvin too. Also maybe Manny, Moe, or Maurice.

Anybody think Earl, Hermine, or Nicole could be retired too?


Earl I think has a relatively strong chance of being retired. He holds the dubious honour of being Mexico's deadliest storm in 11 years, and caused a load of damage to Belize.

With Nicole it depends on the extent of her impacts on Bermuda. I think Bermuda (rightfully) takes a lot of pride in its structural ability and the citizens' preparation to withstand hurricanes, and Fabian was the only storm in recent memory to undercut that pride. Nicole may have what it takes to seriously challenge Fabian's legacy there.

Hermine though? Nahh, she finally wound up making something of herself - given that things entire lifespan as an identifiable low - but not enough to wreak any kind of havoc (other than on forecasters and enthusiasts).
Quoting 134. RockinghamRob:



I'm thinking Mark and Marvin too. Also maybe Manny, Moe, or Maurice.

Anybody think Earl, Hermine, or Nicole could be retired too?

I think Earl will likely be retired, but I doubt Hermine and Nicole will be retired.
Looked a little dry in the east but with that impeccable eye structure she could shunt that off quickly and appears to be doing just that in the last couple frames.

anyone able to get the port of bermuda webcam to work?
I give Earl about a 45% chance of being retired.Some villages in Mexico were heavily damaged but Mexico barely calls for the retirement of storms (see Emily from 2005 and Karl from 2010) and Belize did take a good hit from the storm.From the good Doc himself....

Given the high death toll in Mexico and extensive damage in Belize, it is quite possible the name Earl will be retired from the active list of hurricane names next year.

Hermine I highly doubt it and the jury is still out on Nicole but Matthew has made a (unfortunate) legacy and will indefinitely be retired come the spring of next year.
153. V26R
The PNW looks like its gonna get Blasted by the first of those storms!




955mb with 6kt surface winds via a dropsonde again this pass - Link
Beauty is the beginning of terror:

Quoting 155. BaltimoreBrian:

Beauty is the beginning of terror




I can't even believe that this is Nicole.

I thought this thing was gonna be like Jose on the outside of Irene in 2011. But obviously she's turned into a rather large, powerful, and dangerous storm. It takes the perfect direction and conditions to get us talking about a storm being one of the worst that Bermuda has ever faced.
Quoting 146. LostTomorrows:



Earl I think has a relatively strong chance of being retired. He holds the dubious honour of being Mexico's deadliest storm in 11 years, and caused a load of damage to Belize.

With Nicole it depends on the extent of her impacts on Bermuda. I think Bermuda (rightfully) takes a lot of pride in its structural ability and the citizens' preparation to withstand hurricanes, and Fabian was the only storm in recent memory to undercut that pride. Nicole may have what it takes to seriously challenge Fabian's legacy there.

Hermine though? Nahh, she finally wound up making something of herself - given that things entire lifespan as an identifiable low - but not enough to wreak any kind of havoc (other than on forecasters and enthusiasts).

Invest 99L should be retired for the headaches it caused
Nicole is getting deeper per the last pass. 


96 Knots puts the storm at 110+ mph. Right at the threshold to Cat 3.

Big wind fields too

014500 2950N 06621W 6959 02743 9503 +175 +072 233016 020 055 002 03
014530 2949N 06619W 6970 02736 9511 +171 +075 218027 032 /// /// 03
014600 2948N 06617W 6962 02746 9517 +165 +087 220040 043 054 002 03
014630 2947N 06616W 6965 02749 9525 +164 +097 224052 059 063 004 00
014700 2946N 06614W 6974 02751 9534 +165 +094 226068 071 064 004 03
014730 2944N 06613W 6962 02774 9545 +164 +104 224077 081 085 002 03
014800 2943N 06612W 6956 02798 9570 +159 +112 228092 098 090 003 00
014830 2942N 06611W 6963 02813 9610 +144 +106 233101 103 094 004 00
014900 2941N 06610W 6966 02836 9632 +151 +094 230109 113 094 003 00
014930 2939N 06608W 6962 02863 9663 +148 +067 226114 115096 003 00
015000 2938N 06607W 6970 02875 9696 +136 +073 229113 114 094 003 00
015030 2937N 06606W 6967 02897 9725 +129 +080 228109 113 093 002 00

Sad for Bermuda, hope everyone stays safe and are prepared, storms seems to be attracted to them!! Hope this is the last for the season , my predictions were for 15/7/5, that's close enough for me!! 14/6/3 so far!
The one saving grace is that outflow appears to be restricted on the southwest side.
Nicole
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 941.1mb/117.4kt

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 2:08Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2016
Storm Name: Nicole (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 1:44:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°51'N 66°23'W (29.85N 66.3833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 194 statute miles (312 km) to the SSW (209°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,693m (8,835ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 98kts (From the NNE at ~ 112.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Quoting 115. HurricaneFan:


Didn't this happen in 2014? I thought it did.

Yeah it did happen in 2014

"More ACE was accrued during October (30 units) than during August and September combined (29 units). The last time that this happened was 1963."


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/com ment.html?entrynum=2870
I cant believe there is no Reporters in Bermuda.No jim cantore either.
Quoting 164. MeteorologistTV:

I cant believe there is no Reporters in Bermuda.No jim cantore either.
unexpected event surprise surprise surprise
167. V26R
Bermuda about to get into the nasty stuff!


168. CC45
Quoting 151. ExumaMET:

anyone able to get the port of bermuda webcam to work?


It's hasn't worked for me since this morning.
169. SLU
One thing that has not been said so far is that Nicole represents a huge bust for all of the global models which showed little to no development of this system in the pre-genesis era. That is why the NHC was caught off guard when the system closed off a circulation and became a tropical storm against the backdrop of low formation chances. This is in direct contrast with Matthew which was well forecast.

first rain drops on the lens

Quoting 156. JrWeathermanFL:



I can't even believe that this is Nicole.

I thought this thing was gonna be like Jose on the outside of Irene in 2011. But obviously she's turned into a rather large, powerful, and dangerous storm. It takes the perfect direction and conditions to get us talking about a storm being one of the worst that Bermuda has ever faced.

I know! I was caught off guard when it was named let alone strength into a powerful hurricane.
I think it is likely that Ian will be retired.

Sarcasm.
Quoting 169. SLU:

One thing that has not been said so far is that Nicole represents a huge bust for all of the global models which showed little to no development of this system in the pre-genesis era. That is why the NHC was caught off guard when the system closed off a circulation and became a tropical storm against the backdrop of low formation chances. This is in direct contrast with Matthew which was well forecast.


Best case scenario at this point is an actual eye landfall. I would think this would be better than a skirt just to the west and being in the eastern eyewall the entire time.

Should see some sunshine tomorrow in the eye that big!
I had over 2 hours of eye time during Floyd in Abaco. 145-150 sustained at the time. Awesome to say the least.

Quoting 169. SLU:

One thing that has not been said so far is that Nicole represents a huge bust for all of the global models which showed little to no development of this system in the pre-genesis era. That is why the NHC was caught off guard when the system closed off a circulation and became a tropical storm against the backdrop of low formation chances. This is in direct contrast with Matthew which was well forecast.




The Euro/Euro ensembles developed it, although wasn't a huge chance (I think only 20% of the ensembles developed it). Just goes to show that the models can miss development/development can be unexpected. Plus, Nicole did a mini-Matthew and formed/strengthened despite 30-40kts of wind shear. Both storms should become the focus of studies and it would be great to understand how storms are able to develop/strengthen in spite of hostile conditions.
Quoting 175. Envoirment:



The Euro/Euro ensembles developed it, although wasn't a huge chance (I think only 20% of the ensembles developed it). Just goes to show that the models can miss development/development can be unexpected. And to be fair, Nicole did a mini-Matthew and formed/strengthened despite 30-40kts of wind shear. Both storms should become the focus of studies and would be great to understand how storms are able to develop/strengthen in spite of hostile conditions.

Agreed it was in a very harsh enviroment.
177. SLU
Quoting 174. Abacosurf:

Best case scenario at this point is an actual eye landfall. I would think this would be better than a skirt just to the west and being in the eastern eyewall the enntire time.

Should see some sunshine tomorrow in the eye that big!
I had over 2 hours of eye time during Floyd in Abaco. 145-150 sustained at the time. Awesome to say the least.




I was thinking the same thing too. It's best for the eye to go right over BDA. That might actually shield them from the deadly cat 3 or 4 winds that will be in the eastern eyewall. If it passes 5 or 10 miles west of the island, then it could be Fabian part 2.
111kt non-suspect surface wind in eastern eyewall:

024000 3004N 06602W 6971 02797 9620 +127 //// 179099 108 111 006 01

Likely going to see Nicole up to 110-115kts. Hope a dropsonde was dropped in the eyewall.
Flight level winds up to 119kts


023700 3001N 06550W 6969 02929 9784 +108 +099 185105 106 091 005 03
023730 3001N 06552W 6967 02913 9760 +109 +098 183110 113 093 006 00
023800 3002N 06554W 6960 02904 9750 +102 +100 180115 117 095 009 03
023830 3002N 06556W 6966 02875 9753 +101 +101 178118 119 101 024 03
023900 3003N 06558W 6969 02846 9713 +114 +114 180112 117 108 015 00
023930 3003N 06600W 6966 02823 9671 +117 +117 180111 114 110 008 00
024000 3004N 06602W 6971 02797 9620 +127 //// 179099 108 111 006 01

Bold are non-suspect surface readings
180. SLU
Quoting 175. Envoirment:



The Euro/Euro ensembles developed it, although wasn't a huge chance (I think only 20% of the ensembles developed it). Just goes to show that the models can miss development/development can be unexpected. Plus, Nicole did a mini-Matthew and formed/strengthened despite 30-40kts of wind shear. Both storms should become the focus of studies and it would be great to understand how storms are able to develop/strengthen in spite of hostile conditions.


Yeah it is expected that the models would miss a few storms but a major hurricane has such a major impact on the atmosphere, it's very odd that they would miss it almost completely (especially the excitable GFS). Probably the atmosphere changed significantly since the storm formed which caused the models to miss the pattern in the pre-genesis time frame.
Quoting 177. SLU:



I was thinking the same thing too. It's best for the eye to go right over BDA. That might actually shield them from the deadly cat 3 or 4 winds that will be in the eastern eyewall. If it passes 5 or 10 miles west of the island, then it could be Fabian part 2.


Yep, that's exactly how Fabian go us. Apparently only the western-most tip of the island "experienced" the eye, the rest of us just got the eyewall.
Exper_fim-9 model
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDo mainZipTZA.cgi?keys=fim9_jet:&runtime=2016101212&p lot_type=mslp_sfc&fcst=240&time_inc=360&num_times= 57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20F ields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=244&adtf n=0
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

I give Earl about a 45% chance of being retired.Some villages in Mexico were heavily damaged but Mexico barely calls for the retirement of storms (see Emily from 2005 and Karl from 2010) and Belize did take a good hit from the storm.From the good Doc himself....

Given the high death toll in Mexico and extensive damage in Belize, it is quite possible the name Earl will be retired from the active list of hurricane names next year.

Hermine I highly doubt it and the jury is still out on Nicole but Matthew has made a (unfortunate) legacy and will indefinitely be retired come the spring of next year.


Mexico is very strange when it comes to retirements. They didn't ask for Emily 05, or Alex, Karl, or (the other) Matthew 2010 to be retired, but they wanted Ingrid retired in 2013. Compared to those four I thought Ingrid was rather forgettable other than it made landfall the same time as Manuel
Non-suspect 118kt surface wind in northwestern eyewall


024900 3004N 06637W 6971 02794 9657 122 122 000102 109 118 022 00

Nicole is a cat 4.
I imagine the NHC is frantically trying to work out how to classify this thing...
186. SLU
Quoting 181. octoberallover:



Yep, that's exactly how Fabian go us. Apparently only the western-most tip of the island "experienced" the eye, the rest of us just got the eyewall.


I hope this time the eye covers the whole island or it jogs eastwards and the entire core misses the island.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12
Location: 30.1N 66.4W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 66.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
190. SLU
Quoting 184. Envoirment:

Non-suspect 118kt surface wind in northwestern eyewall


024900 3004N 06637W 6971 02794 9657 122 122 000102 109 118 022 00

Nicole is a cat 4.


That would make it one of Bermuda's most powerful hurricanes in recorded history. Storms normally lose steam as they near Bermuda but this one is doing the opposite.
Nicole is now a four!
192. SLU
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12
Location: 30.1°N 66.4°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Nicole could be the strongest hurricane to affect Bermuda in living memory given she's likely going to strengthen a little more before leveling off. Very bad news for Bermuda!
When is the next Recon ?
Note that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this
strong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that
have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane
database, which goes back to 1851.
Wow. Cat 4 Hurricane Nicole. Hunker down Bermuda!
197. SLU
Note that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this
strong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that
have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane
database, which goes back to 1851.
Quoting 193. Envoirment:

Nicole could be the strongest hurricane to affect Bermuda in living memory given she's likely going to strengthen a little more before leveling off. Very bad news for Bermuda!


They have it back down to 120 by landfall.
Dropsonde measured 953mb with 6kt surface winds. Link

A drop of 2mb from the previous dropsonde in the center (955mb with 6kt surface winds). Nicole could get into the 940s tonight. A second recon plane is getting closer to continue monitoring the system overnight.
Quoting 24. pingon:

Those of you on the Pacific Northwest are going to get some wicked weather. Please keep us informed.




We're downslope (a bit), down-funnel and downwind from Fallon NAS. Whatever speed their anenometers read, add an easy 10 or 15 mph. :)

Have I mentioned how happy I am we got those two trees hacked out? :)

Unpleasant Next Door Neighbor moved to Idaho, left her property on the market - and *her* cottonwoods looming over her power lines. We've already had one wind-related outage, and the line guys grumble and hop her fence to get at the downed limbs. At this point she probably doesn't care that one of them could land on her roof.
Quoting 183. RockinghamRob:



Mexico is very strange when it comes to retirements. They didn't ask for Emily 05, or Alex, Karl, or (the other) Matthew 2010 to be retired, but they wanted Ingrid retired in 2013. Compared to those four I thought Ingrid was rather forgettable other than it made landfall the same time as Manuel
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

I give Earl about a 45% chance of being retired.Some villages in Mexico were heavily damaged but Mexico barely calls for the retirement of storms (see Emily from 2005 and Karl from 2010) and Belize did take a good hit from the storm.From the good Doc himself....

Given the high death toll in Mexico and extensive damage in Belize, it is quite possible the name Earl will be retired from the active list of hurricane names next year.

Hermine I highly doubt it and the jury is still out on Nicole but Matthew has made a (unfortunate) legacy and will indefinitely be retired come the spring of next year.


The thing is that Mexico mostly ask for retirement for storms that have been deadly. Most storms that both of you had mention were not deadly. They were storm that produce a lot of damage but not many casualities. Earl have a high chance of retirement because it was the deadliest storm for many years in the country. The state of Puebla said it was the deadliest storm on record for them. I am confident that Mexico will ask for it.
I said a few days ago that I thought Nicole would
be a Major Hurricane but I was not thinking it
would be a Cat 4....

Now is there another site on Bermuda that has a web cam
working???? I'm just getting a black screen....

Taco :o)
Quoting 199. Envoirment:

A second recon plane is getting closer to continue monitoring the system overnight.

Thanks.
Anyone have any thoughts about that storm the GFS has been developing for the last day or so, in the Carribbean, around the 24th?
205. IDTH
Oh my lord, a Cat 4 heading towards Bermuda. This could be easily be one of their worst storms if the intensity does not go down.
Quoting 204. MJ0ZS4:

Anyone have any thoughts about that storm the GFS has been developing for the last day or so, in the Carribbean, around the 24th?

Check back in 5 to 7 days and see if it's becoming a reality. The western Carrib is ripe with heat that has been untapped since June.
HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

"...Note that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this
strong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that
have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane
database, which goes back to 1851...."
Thoughts and prayers to Bermuda... I hope they have a way to hunker down for this one.
Figured yesterday Nicole might make a run for Cat. 4 status. Really hoping the best for Bermuda. :-/
210. IDTH
Nicole didn't want to just be known as that storm that was there when Matthew was. She's looking to make her own legacy, which could be quite devastating. Very surprised she became this strong, I did not remember the models make her this strong.

Quoting 206. Abacosurf:


Check back in 5 to 7 days and see if it's becoming a reality. The western Carrib is ripe with heat that has been untapped since June.

Untapped since like 2012!
We downplay seasons soooooo much here. Praying for Bermuda, 2016 has with Gaston, Matthew, and Nicole; used the most of it's majors. Matthew was a beast with a minihulk. Who knows, maybe that made it RI early and then spared us the worst that could have easily been. Florida, dodging a bullet like never before, in many ways. Duel eye walls and then one huge one, Doc Masters called that one with the intensity drop he suggested we'd see. Levi had some great play by play too. That was passion here that hasn't been felt in some time. And the following tropical exhaustion syndrome.
Nicole's hurricane force wind field is quite large:



Bermuda will get hurricane force winds regardless of if Nicole's eye wobbles east or west of Bermuda.
Bermuda's ready. I think like Taiwan in many ways. Could take entire CDO, this is going to be insane footage. After Matthew, a death toll of zero would be wonderful to see in Bermuda.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 4h4 hours ago
With #Nicole's upgrade to a major hurricane, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has met official NOAA definition of an above-avg season.
If it plows straight ahead into Bermuda, when is the expected land fall (or at least the earliest time the northeastern eyewall hits the coast)?
Nicole's intensification to Category 4 status also marks the first time in recorded history that two Category 4 hurricanes have existed in the month of October. Really does seem like the active "peak" has shifted from mid-September to late-September / early-October the last few years. The vast majority of our seasonal ACE will ultimately be generated by Nicole and Matthew too.
219. IDTH
What is up with October lately? I've asked this a lot but it seems like since 2011 September has been dominated by sinking motion and October has seen much more active times. Is it just strange circumstances of when the environment decides to become active in the Atlantic at this time? I understand SST's are becoming much warmer and that could be a factor as well but still, it seems that circumstances such as the MJO being in a sinking phase across the Atlantic in September the past 5 years or so could be another factor for this trend.
Quoting 217. flibinite:

If it plows straight ahead into Bermuda, when is the expected land fall (or at least the earliest time the northeastern eyewall hits the coast)?


According to the BWS, it should be around 12pm tomorrow
Quoting 216. Prouss:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 4h4 hours ago
With #Nicole's upgrade to a major hurricane, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has met official NOAA definition of an above-avg season.


And no rain here for weeks now... Great!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 12m12 minutes ago Moraga, CA
Only one Category 4 hurricane on record (since 1851) has tracked within 50 miles of Bermuda - Hurricane 5 on 10/16/1939. #Nicole
Quoting 218. CybrTeddy:

Nicole's intensification to Category 4 status also marks the first time in recorded history that two Category 4+ hurricanes have developed in the month of October. Really does seem like the active "peak" has shifted from mid-September to early-October the last few years. The vast majority of our seasonal ACE will ultimately be generated by Nicole and Matthew too.
Completely agree, over the last couple years the most intense storms have occurred in October. If you look at the number of storms per date since 1851, you can see there is a secondary peek of activity during October. I do not think it willl ever take over the September 11th peek but I do believe he stronger hurricanes are occuring in October, a trend that started in 2005 with Wilma.
Quoting 218. CybrTeddy:

Nicole's intensification to Category 4 status also marks the first time in recorded history that two Category 4 hurricanes have existed in the month of October. Really does seem like the active "peak" has shifted from mid-September to late-September / early-October the last few years. The vast majority of our seasonal ACE will ultimately be generated by Nicole and Matthew too.


Don't forget about Gaston! Nicole's ACE will likely be similar to Gaston's. Both look very similar in appearance as well. Maybe the tropical wave that spawned Gaston kept itself together as an area of disturbed weather as it traversed the globe, before making it back into the Atlantic - could explain their likeness. lol
With the last couple of weeks this season, Can't say the active era is over yet.
Just curious, does anyone else think Gaston was possibly a cat 5 hurricane.. or cat 4 like Nicole? Was there ever a recon flight into him?
Apparently some people (not on the blog) have been talking behind my back about how I casually made a game out of other people's suffering because I went and chased Matthew. Unfortunately, I can't quite use the careful rhetoric I'd like to on the blog (those of you on my Facebook did see my status update about it, though), which is the only adequate way to fully articulate how stupid that is. Self-righteous people are completely retarded, though, and I can't help but laugh at their collective stupidity.

P.S. I'm an adult, I do what I want. If you try and handwave your perspective in my face like this and take the moral high ground, I'll do whatever I can to shame you. Publicly if possible.
Anyone have a link to Gibb Hill lighthouse wx data in Bermuda?
Quoting 174. Abacosurf:

Best case scenario at this point is an actual eye landfall. I would think this would be better than a skirt just to the west and being in the eastern eyewall the entire time.

Should see some sunshine tomorrow in the eye that big!
I had over 2 hours of eye time during Floyd in Abaco. 145-150 sustained at the time. Awesome to say the least.


Wow
Looking at past seasons and with Nicole adding up the numbers 2016 will probably be somewhere in top 15 in total ACE when the season ends.
MAJOR HURRICANCE WARNING
15L/MH/N/C4
I'd be to Bermuda in a heartbeat, if only I had money... :/
Anyone else staying up to watch the first recon pass?
Quoting 231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

MAJOR HURRICANCE WARNING
15L/MH/N/C4

Idk if I am seeing things but doesn't the eye seem to be contracting... still strengthening if that's the case and would not good for Bermuda.
Category 4
Catastrophic damage will occur
Category 4 hurricanes tend to produce more extensive curtainwall failures, with some complete structural failure on small residences. Heavy, irreparable damage and near complete destruction of gas station canopies and other wide span overhang type structures are common. Mobile and manufactured homes are often flattened. Most trees, except for the heartiest, are uprooted or snapped
Looking like things are about to get nasty here in the pacific NW. Had our first serious frosts the last 2 mornings here in Acme, WA. 29° on the porch, anything tender in the garden is done. Things are alive in the greenhouse but looking quite sad, thinking I should just call it a year and take it down before the wind does it for me. Harvested over 300lbs of organic heirloom tomatoes and enough peppers and cucumbers to be set on preserves to get through the winter. Just finished re-roofing the wood shed, ready for the storms to begin.



Orange is the new red.
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

I'd be to Bermuda in a heartbeat, if only I had money... :/


You and me both.
I think for most part Bermuda will stand up pretty well . My real concern is St Georges Parish and Somerset. BDA may take some serious damage as well , thats gonna slow down getting relief flts in. Just to throw a little nautical trivia in the pot. Most isolated island on the planet.
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

I'd be to Bermuda in a heartbeat, if only I had money... :/
Right there with ya.... But maybe we'll get another opportunity before the season is over. Otherwise it's back to tornado chasing if there's a fall outbreak, or just head into winter mode.
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

I'd be to Bermuda in a heartbeat, if only I had money... :/
you would need a private jet too get their now in time all flights in and out are likely to be suspended soon all ships are to remain in port for duration now storm is moving in expect conditions to be severe by daylight extreme during the day tomorrow and during the backside passage after the clear of the eye
Quoting 227. KoritheMan:

Apparently some people (not on the blog) have been talking behind my back about how I casually made a game out of other people's suffering because I went and chased Matthew. Unfortunately, I can't quite use the careful rhetoric I'd like to on the blog (those of you on my Facebook did see my status update about it, though), which is the only adequate way to fully articulate how stupid that is. Self-righteous people are completely retarded, though, and I can't help but laugh at their collective stupidity.

P.S. I'm an adult, I do what I want. If you try and handwave your perspective in my face like this and take the moral high ground, I'll do whatever I can to shame you. Publicly if possible.


For sure. Who will pick up that stone and throw it; far too many. And to place shame on another but for that log in your own eye. We are all broken, and I hope we can all forgive. Shame is something we all face, for it was given to us for a reason and purpose to refinement.
Quoting 230. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Looking at past seasons and with Nicole adding up the numbers 2016 will probably be somewhere in top 15 in total ACE when the season ends.


We'll need ~146 ACE to get into the top 15. We'll likely be around 125-130 once Nicole is done. Certainly possible if we have 3-4 more systems, including a hurricane or two. To get in the top 10 we'll need an ACE of ~171. Not sure that's possible unless we have a few more hurricanes including another major hurricane which sticks around a little while. Still plenty of the season to go though and a little MJO to help out... Plus models pointing at some Caribbean trouble once again by the end of next week.
Quoting 240. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you would need a private jet too get their now in time all flights in and out are likely to be suspended soon all ships are to remain in port for duration now storm is moving in expect conditions to be severe by daylight extreme during the day tomorrow and during the backside passage after the clear of the eye


Well the airport wasn't closed yesterday, so I would've went then. But I'm afraid I don't have $700 for a round trip flight from Baton Rouge to Hamilton, and the cheapest hotel I could find was $350 a night. >_>
This has been quite a recent remarkable stretch of tropical activity recently, just earlier today, the upper most outlying intensity model had Nicole peaking around 120 mph, with an average around 105.
My thoughts go to the people in Bermuda, hopefully Nicole will pass them by quickly and all will be safe!!
Quoting 244. Jedkins01:

This has been quite a recent remarkable stretch of tropical activity recently, just earlier today, the upper most outlying intensity model had Nicole peaking around 120 mph, with an average around 105.


Sometimes it's better to go above the intensity consensus, even well above if rapid intensification is particularly apparent or imminent.
Bermuda might be very well prepared, but this could be a bit worse than Fay ever was.
Quoting 236. plantmoretrees:

Looking like things are about to get nasty here in the pacific NW. Had our first serious frosts the last 2 mornings here in Acme, WA. 29° on the porch, anything tender in the garden is done. Things are alive in the greenhouse but looking quite sad, thinking I should just call it a year and take it down before the wind does it for me. Harvested over 300lbs of organic heirloom tomatoes and enough peppers and cucumbers to be set on preserves to get through the winter. Just finished re-roofing the wood shed, ready for the storms to begin.



Orange is the new red.


Those var. "Red Sausage" around the sides?



Eyewall of Nicole coming into view. It's large eye means it's going to have a long duration of high winds.
Hurricane Nicole visible on the Bermuda Long range radar.




Recon looks to slowly be inching closer
Quoting 246. KoritheMan:



Sometimes it's better to go above the intensity consensus, even well above if rapid intensification is particularly apparent or imminent.


Yeah, the the NHC goofed up with Matthew by not forecasting a category 4 when it was going through RI the day it peaked at category 5. It was quite obvious guidance was way behind.
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

I'd be to Bermuda in a heartbeat, if only I had money... :/


You thought you had something in Florida. Hindsight is 20/20. Had some gusts probably approaching 60 or right at it from Matthew in NC, probably near hurricane force down in Myrtle, not much more. Definitely more of a rain event.
Quoting 253. win1gamegiantsplease:



You thought you had something in Florida. Hindsight is 20/20. Had some gusts probably approaching 60 or right at it from Matthew in NC, probably near hurricane force down in Myrtle, not much more. Definitely more of a rain event.


I'd estimate ground-level gusts in excess of 90 mph where I was in Melbourne. Nicole would've definitely made a better chase, but nature is capricious like that I guess. :)
Quoting 251. 52520Andrew:

Recon looks to slowly be inching closer


Ye, they started descending:

MAJOR HURRICANE WARNING
15L/MH/N/C4
Quoting 247. win1gamegiantsplease:

Bermuda might be very well prepared, but this could be a bit worse than Fay ever was.


Fay? I think you mean Fabian...
Quoting 254. KoritheMan:



I'd estimate ground-level gusts in excess of 90 mph where I was in Melbourne. Nicole would've definitely made a better chase, but nature is capricious like that I guess. :)


I bet Canaveral had some really high winds, not too far at all from there. I'm much more familiar with northern FL so I don't know how low-lying and/or dangerous riding out a storm is there. From all I heard on here the Space and especially Treasure coasts are not where you'd want to be for a major.
Much more ensemble support..not good
Quoting 256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

MAJOR HURRICANE WARNING
15L/MH/N/C4



God thats scary, eye 3-4 times larger then Bermuda maybe much more and looks like a black hole.
Quoting 252. Jedkins01:



Yeah, the the NHC goofed up with Matthew by not forecasting a category 4 when it was going through RI the day it peaked at category 5. It was quite obvious guidance was way behind.


One of my favorite nights to watch a cane blow up. Taz and I were all over the HGHA (hurricane growth hormone attachment) and what we thought was happening. Nicole is an epic hurricane and this place is mum. Lot of our Florida followers are recovering from Matthew. He was an ordeal, thank goodness he didn't make landfall as a 145mph major in Florida. Kori may have become famous and or died. You've got to go through your first major though before you go through your second.
Quoting 256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

MAJOR HURRICANE WARNING
15L/MH/N/C4


Omg that eye is almost like a cyclops eye. This maybe the worst case scenario for Bermuda.
So far here in the PNW, we've only got the usual October rain happening. But we're poised and prepping for a big show. The mets are talking about the Big One, Oct. 12th some 50 years ago-- we had Cat 4 winds inland. http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/f rom-the-archives-columbus-day-storm-of-1962/
Can we please Not have any loss of life in Bermuda. Would be nice to read and hear about after Nicole passes.
Quoting 258. win1gamegiantsplease:



I bet Canaveral had some really high winds, not too far at all from there. I'm much more familiar with northern FL so I don't know how low-lying and/or dangerous riding out a storm is there. From all I heard on here the Space and especially Treasure coasts are not where you'd want to be for a major.


Hermine ground zero is a worse spot to be, imo. Not all that populated, meaning no places to hunker down.

I was awake when Tony Cristaldi issued that extreme wind warning for Cape Canaveral that morning. Since it was in the same county, I got paranoid and shot him a Facebook message as to whether we were included or not, haha. Isaac was asleep at that point, but I was definitely gonna wake him up for that.
Nicole reminds me of the Great Atlantic hurricane that took out our fleet in WWII during 1944.
Actually, this recap of the storm is more interesting. http://ceoas.oregonstate.edu/features/columbusdays torm/
Meanwhile, here's hoping for a miracle for Bermuda. What a monster that Nicole turned out to be.
Quoting 248. nonblanche:



Those var. "Red Sausage" around the sides?




Opalka paste tomato, I believe it is a Hungarian variety. Very tasty, very prolific. The others are from smallest to largest, sun gold (the only hybrid I grow) Jean Flamé (French Heirloom) and yellow brandywine. Hard to grow here in western WA without a greenhouse. Too cold n wet, brassicas and lettuce still going after the frost. Must admit to being a little depressed with the growing season ending, been a bountiful year. Well back to Nicole's memorizing motion.....
Quoting 261. DeepSeaRising:



You've got to go through your first major though before you go through your second.

I've been through my first (cat 5)... *never* want to go through a second ;)
It's one thing to be a professional safe as possible storm chaser. Or possibly an amateur with very deep pockets who has the resources to be in a safe place and have planned the whole chase beforehand. It's another thing to fly into an island and stay at a cheap motel at the last minute. That's an amateur risk. A professional plans beforehand and looks to make a long career/hobby chasing. It looked cat3-4 at worst yesterday. Today it's Cat4 or worst. The causeway to airport will likely go down. Any foolish last minute chaser would be stuck for days/weeks in a cheap motel at best, and right now it's looking like worst is more likely.
Someone here posted a video of a group chasing Matthew along the FL coast. Those guys had the equipment and knew what they were doing. Documented very well. Sometimes it's best to leave it to the professionals.
Quoting 259. nygiants:

Much more ensemble support..not good



Climatologically, it's gonna happen sooner or later.
947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)
Under 950 now.
Quoting 219. IDTH:

What is up with October lately? I've asked this a lot but it seems like since 2011 September has been dominated by sinking motion and October has seen much more active times. Is it just strange circumstances of when the environment decides to become active in the Atlantic at this time? I understand SST's are becoming much warmer and that could be a factor as well but still, it seems that circumstances such as the MJO being in a sinking phase across the Atlantic in September the past 5 years or so could be another factor for this trend.


Some of it could be just pure chance, a shot term cycle. The other possibility is that potential vertical instability over the tropical and subtropical oceans is higher over the basin later in the season, and with a warming world, it means ocean temps will be slower to cool, and thus the higher instability can be taken advantage of. Convection is going to be stronger and more efficient in an environment of greater instability, and thus the ability to quickly grow an anti-cyclone aloft to fight of shear and further intensify the hurricane increases.
Quoting 260. WeatherkidJoe2323:



God thats scary, eye 3-4 times larger then Bermuda maybe much more and looks like a black hole.


Yeah it has become remarkably organized and has been another stunner intensification wise. Remember, when Matthew was off the coast of FL, Nicole was a weak TS expecting to peak at 50 mph before dissipating in a few days. Intensity forecasting still has a long way to no.
,
Quoting 270. CosmicEvents:

It's one thing to be a professional safe as possible storm chaser. Or possibly an amateur with very deep pockets who has the resources to be in a safe place and have planned the whole chase beforehand. It's another thing to fly into an island and stay at a cheap motel at the last minute. That's an amateur risk. A professional plans beforehand and looks to make a long career/hobby chasing. It looked cat3-4 at worst yesterday. Today it's Cat4 or worst. The causeway to airport will likely go down. Any foolish last minute chaser would be stuck for days/weeks in a cheap motel at best, and right now it's looking like worst is more likely.


Uh, I was taking into account the possibility (likelihood?) of being stuck in the event I was actually gonna go. Not sure what you're talking about there. I even said I didn't have the money to make any of that happen.
Two cyclones?
Quoting 272. KoritheMan:



Climatologically, it's gonna happen sooner or later.

One hurricane in south florida was enough and we were only brushed..now a 2nd one? Jeez
Quoting 272. KoritheMan:



Climatologically, it's gonna happen sooner or later.

It keeps moving up in time too..which could mean more likley.
Quoting 270. CosmicEvents:

The causeway to airport will likely go down. Any foolish last minute chaser would be stuck for days/weeks in a cheap motel at best, and right now it's looking like worst is more likely.

There are no cheap motels in Bermuda.
Quoting 254. KoritheMan:



I'd estimate ground-level gusts in excess of 90 mph where I was in Melbourne. Nicole would've definitely made a better chase, but nature is capricious like that I guess. :)


I'm pretty sure the NWS in Melbourne showed there was an official gust to 90 mph in Melbourne and 93 mph in Daytona Beach at over 100 mph in Cape Canaveral. Personally I think it's impressive the weaker west side of the hurricane was able to generate a pretty large area of hurricane force winds over land considering the eyewall missed the coast by a good bit.
Quoting 279. nygiants:


It keeps moving up in time too..which could mean more likley.


I don't think it's a ghost. Never did. That doesn't mean it'll happen, but I don't think anything from 0-168 hours is convective feedback atm.
Quoting 268. plantmoretrees:



Opalka paste tomato, I believe it is a Hungarian variety. Very tasty, very prolific. The others are from smallest to largest, sun gold (the only hybrid I grow) Jean Flamé (French Heirloom) and yellow brandywine. Hard to grow here in western WA without a greenhouse. Too cold n wet, brassicas and lettuce still going after the frost. Must admit to being a little depressed with the growing season ending, been a bountiful year. Well back to Nicole's memorizing motion.....


The season is often too short here. I got mine in via greenhouse starts, but - maybe the soil pH, I usually have to struggle to bring it down; our well water is 8.2 pH, and especially this year, with first good water after drought years, the ground water via hydrostatic pressure from the nearby ditches and canals, there's spots in the front yard where the ground is white and fizzes when you pour on plain vinegar. Garden's in the back, but still tomatoes and peppers just couldn't get started fast enough to be prolific.
Quoting 278. nygiants:


One hurricane in south florida was enough and we were only brushed..now a 2nd one? Jeez


Welcome to October. Hurricane history says hi.
Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



I'm pretty sure the NWS in Melbourne showed there was an official gust to 90 mph in Melbourne and 93 mph in Daytona Beach at over 100 mph in Cape Canaveral. Personally I think it's impressive the weaker west side of the hurricane was able to generate a pretty large area of hurricane force winds over land considering the eyewall missed the coast by a good bit.


Seems accurate. I've continually described it as similar to Gustav, which put down a gust to 92 in the Baton Rouge airport in 2008. The scope of the damage was pretty consistent with that level of impact.
Quoting 250. AussieStorm:

Hurricane Nicole visible on the Bermuda Long range radar.







Unfortunately, it has that classic look of a high end hurricane, very symmetric structure and well defined eye.

Also, it looks like the eye is shrinking a bit and becoming more symmetric on radar, not good for Bermuda, this could be one for the record books for them. Sort of looks like Katrina did on radar before in weakened. Nicole is a strengthening hurricane as it approaches, and that is never good, especially in the wind severity department.
Quoting 261. DeepSeaRising:



One of my favorite nights to watch a cane blow up. Taz and I were all over the HGHA (hurricane growth hormone attachment) and what we thought was happening. Nicole is an epic hurricane and this place is mum. Lot of our Florida followers are recovering from Matthew. He was an ordeal, thank goodness he didn't make landfall as a 145mph major in Florida. Kori may have become famous and or died. You've got to go through your first major though before you go through your second.


Isaac and I were SERIOUSLY second guessing ourselves before the EWRC induced a jog, haha.
288. IDTH
Quoting 274. Jedkins01:



Some of it could be just pure chance, a shot term cycle. The other possibility is that potential vertical instability over the tropical and subtropical oceans is higher over the basin later in the season, and with a warming world, it means ocean temps will be slower to cool, and thus the higher instability can be taken advantage of. Convection is going to be stronger and more efficient in an environment of greater instability, and thus the ability to quickly grow an anti-cyclone aloft to fight of shear and further intensify the hurricane increases.

Yeah it has become remarkably organized and has been another stunner intensification wise. Remember, when Matthew was off the coast of FL, Nicole was a weak TS expecting to peak at 50 mph before dissipating in a few days. Intensity forecasting still has a long way to no.

I feel like it might be a mixture of pure chance and ocean temperatures taking longer to cool. I get that instability would generally be higher because of the SST's being much warmer but it must be pure chance that September has been this inactive in recent years. October is becoming more active but I think it's pure chance that September has been dominated by sinking motion in recent years.
Dropsonde has it at 951mb with 6kt winds
Quoting 277. HurricaneAndre:

Two cyclones?

Otto and Paula. Yeah.
Quoting 284. KoritheMan:



Welcome to October. Hurricane history says hi.

Doubt this will happen with track..what do you think? It goes through Yucatan into BOC. CMC further west by Jamaica..just for fun right now though. No worries
Southwesterly shear starting to increase, as evident by the eyewall being unable to close off in the southwestern quadrant; this is also apparent in satellite and microwave imagery as well. Still, with highly diffluent flow aloft, no significant weakening is likely before it passes near or over Bermuda.
Quoting 289. 52520Andrew:

Dropsonde has it at 951mb with 6kt winds


Satellite presentation suggests little change since the release of the 0300Z advisory. I'd keep it at 115 kt, personally.
Something just recently seemed to blow most of the strong, northern convection away, almost exposing the eyewall completely. Hopefully activity like that will weaken it, or at least keep Nicole from strengthening even a bit more.

Link
Quoting 265. KoritheMan:



Hermine ground zero is a worse spot to be, imo. Not all that populated, meaning no places to hunker down.

I was awake when Tony Cristaldi issued that extreme wind warning for Cape Canaveral that morning. Since it was in the same county, I got paranoid and shot him a Facebook message as to whether we were included or not, haha. Isaac was asleep at that point, but I was definitely gonna wake him up for that.


Kofi, don't ever let anyone discourage you from doing what you want. I rarely regret anything I have ever done, but I do regret what I didn't do. Just do it wisely. To quote a famous line, "The world is a banquet table and half the poor suckers are starving". It is the human trait of adventure and curiosity that make our species unique.
Quoting 295. Grothar:



Kofi, don't ever let anyone discourage you from doing what you want. I rarely regret anything I have ever done, but I do regret what I didn't do. Just do it wisely. To quote a famous line, "The world is a banquet table and half the poor suckers are starving". It is the human trait of adventure and curiosity that make our species unique.


Thanks, Gro. Those same people were also complaining that I've had so many vacations since Hermine. Like... they're adults... they know where to go if they want vacations themselves. Just really put me in a bad mood, those two things. Trying to be rational with my posts here on the blog, but it's hard atm.
Lopsided to the southwest

Quoting 265. KoritheMan:



Hermine ground zero is a worse spot to be, imo. Not all that populated, meaning no places to hunker down.

I was awake when Tony Cristaldi issued that extreme wind warning for Cape Canaveral that morning. Since it was in the same county, I got paranoid and shot him a Facebook message as to whether we were included or not, haha. Isaac was asleep at that point, but I was definitely gonna wake him up for that.
I wouldn't have been mad at all, in fact I would've been mad if it was for us and you didn't wake me up. Man the video I could've got if we got into those strong winds....but it's probably for the best they didn't come ashore or it would've been a complete disaster. We really need a car next time haha.
Quoting 292. KoritheMan:

Southwesterly shear starting to increase, as evident by the eyewall being unable to close off in the southwestern quadrant; this is also apparent in satellite and microwave imagery as well. Still, with highly diffluent flow aloft, no significant weakening is likely before it passes near or over Bermuda.

Southwestern eyewall, Kori? The southwest section of Nicole looks completely studful to me, on the Dvorak and other GOES "filters"...

Link

Jo
Quoting 299. flibinite:


Southwestern eyewall, Kori? The southwest section of Nicole looks completely studful to me, on the Dvorak and other GOES "filters"...

Link

Jo


Radar shows it open, as does microwave.
Quoting 298. wxchaser97:

I wouldn't have been mad at all, in fact I would've been mad if it was for us and you didn't wake me up. Man the video I could've got if we got into those strong winds....but it's probably for the best they didn't come ashore or it would've been a complete disaster. We really need a car next time haha.


At the very least I intend to get my driver's license back once I enlist. We can get a rental car next time.
Holy Schmokes, Nicole!

Gosh, what is it with the storms this Autumn? They sure pack a lot of oomph!

Hoping the folks on Bermuda fare well.

I would guess that Otto is the one in the open Atlantic while Paula is the NW Caribbean storm getting ready to develop according to this graphic, correct?
Quoting 290. allancalderini:

Otto and Paula. Yeah.
Quoting 301. KoritheMan:



At the very least I intend to get my driver's license back once I enlist. We can get a rental car next time.
It gets frustrating when even though I'm an adult, I can't rent a car or a hotel until I'm at least 21. Chasing would've been so easier if it was 18+ for those things. At least you'll be able to rent a car next time.
305. IDTH
Quoting 288. IDTH:


I feel like it might be a mixture of pure chance and ocean temperatures taking longer to cool. I get that instability would generally be higher because of the SST's being much warmer but it must be pure chance that September has been this inactive in recent years. October is becoming more active but I think it's pure chance that September has been dominated by sinking motion in recent years.

Keep in mind, this is my amateur opinion, I do not study meteorology for a living

Let me add on to this by saying in 2005 when the Atlantic had it's most active season in recorded history, SST's were quite high (record high) throughout the region but the MDR was dead. SAL dominated that season across that part of the basin (similar to 2016) but I feel like the reason 2005 was as active as it was because of pure chance as well. I don't have documentation of that season but I bet if you went back and look from actual satellite of that season, you'd see evidence of more CCKW's and probably a season much more dominated by the MJO, which could explain why it was more active than the W pacific typhoon season.

Pure chance and a mixture of record SST's is what led to that season being so active, which is why I believe the same is happening with September being so inactive and October being so active in recent seasons.

By the way 2016 had record SST's and had a decently similar ENSO signature to 2005, this led me to believe that instability would be higher across the basin and the MJO would be a bigger factor like in 05. That's why I predicted such a high number of storms (20) before the season because I thought with all that record SST's instability and rising motion would respond because of this. It did not which is why I believe at this point the MJO is something we just don't have an idea about predicting where it will go without models because we don't exactly know what causes the MJO to shift from basin to basin or go into a neutral phase where all basins are generally normal. It's why I believe it to be pure chance right now (there's something that causes it to move where it does, we just don't know exactly what).

Now keep in mind this isn't research by me, this a pure guess based off what I've noticed from watching the tropics closely. Feel free to correct/critique me if I completely botched this assessment.
I doubt you would really want to be a island in the middle of an ocean with cat4 winds.
They are very prepared, but NOT!

Quoting 254. KoritheMan:



I'd estimate ground-level gusts in excess of 90 mph where I was in Melbourne. Nicole would've definitely made a better chase, but nature is capricious like that I guess. :)
Quoting 292. KoritheMan:

Southwesterly shear starting to increase, as evident by the eyewall being unable to close off in the southwestern quadrant; this is also apparent in satellite and microwave imagery as well. Still, with highly diffluent flow aloft, no significant weakening is likely before it passes near or over Bermuda.
Good eye, Kori. Anticyclone to the south trying to fight against it. Strength should hold steady. Eye still looking symmetrical on satellite animation.

Quoting 306. swflurker:

I doubt you would really want to be a island in the middle of an ocean with cat4 winds.
There are very prepared, but NOT!




I meant what I said. I DO wanna be in Bermuda, lol. If there's a good place to be in the Atlantic for a Category 4, it's Cuba or Bermuda.
Quoting 304. wxchaser97:

It gets frustrating when even though I'm an adult, I can't rent a car or a hotel until I'm at least 21. Chasing would've been so easier if it was 18+ for those things. At least you'll be able to rent a car next time.


haha, that hotel clerk was pretty irritating, too. Good thing we had my friend.
TEST
https://bermudaweather.wordpress.com/2015/07/26/o ther-pws/

links for PWS on bermuda if i posted it correctly
http://bermudaweather.wordpress.com/2015/07/26/othe r-pws/
Nicole's eye wall is visible on Bermuda radar. It looks like it will pass right over the island.
I would love to be there also, but not being able to leave after the show would/could, be the problem.
Have no family/friends there. Might be there longer than I care to stay.
BTW, most likely a great place to have an eye wall experience!
Maybe we can get a kitty together if we donate to get you a ticket to the next one?

Quoting 308. KoritheMan:



I meant what I said. I DO wanna be in Bermuda, lol. If there's a good place to be in the Atlantic for a Category 4, it's Cuba or Bermuda.
Quoting 310. lat25five:

TEST
https://bermudaweather.wordpress.com/2015/07/26/o ther-pws/

links for PWS on bermuda if i posted it correctly
Try this. Paste the link like so https://bermudaweather.wordpress.com highlight it and press the link symbol underneath the comment box and paste it in there.
Quoting 303. lobdelse81:

I would guess that Otto is the one in the open Atlantic while Paula is the NW Caribbean storm getting ready to develop according to this graphic, correct?

Switch them up.
Looking back at the 1893 Atlantic Hurricane Season and noticing not 1, but 2 Cape-Verde Hurricanes taking similar tracks paralleling the East Coast of Florida with one making landfall in Savannah, GA and the other making landfall in Myrtle Beach, SC. 5 hurricane made landfall in the U.S. that year. It was a deadly and ruinous year, approximately 4,028 people perished, which for that time period is a considerable loss of life. It's also only 1 of 2 season's to feature 4 hurricanes simultaneously spinning on the same day. I'll let the blog guess the other year.

Quoting 317. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking back at the 1893 Atlantic Hurricane Season and noticing not 1, but 2 Cape-Verde Hurricanes taking similar tracks paralleling the East Coast of Florida with one making landfall in Savannah, GA and the other making landfall in Myrtle Beach, SC. 5 hurricane made landfall in the U.S. that year. It was a deadly and ruinous year, approximately 4,028 people perished, which for that time period is a considerable loss of life. It's also only 1 of 2 season's to feature 4 hurricanes simultaneously spinning on the same day. I'll let the blog guess the other year.


1998
A slight jog to the east on the last 15-20 minutes of radar, so hopefully that will continue, and Bermuda will at least miss the eastern eyewall or a nose-on hit.

Are there any planes there now, or checking Nicole out soon?

Jo
Quoting 317. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking back at the 1893 Atlantic Hurricane Season and noticing not 1, but 2 Cape-Verde Hurricanes taking similar tracks paralleling the East Coast of Florida with one making landfall in Savannah, GA and the other making landfall in Myrtle Beach, SC. 5 hurricane made landfall in the U.S. that year. It was a deadly and ruinous year, approximately 4,028 people perished, which for that time period is a considerable loss of life. It's also only 1 of 2 season's to feature 4 hurricanes simultaneously spinning on the same day. I'll let the blog guess the other year.




1998. My, that was easy.
Hi all,
Live here in Bermuda. Huge rain bands coming through now, which you can see on Bermuda radar:  http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=100K M%20SRI&user=

Heaviest winds to arrive starting 7:00-8:00am and last 8 hours, all still depending on the eye making a direct pass and speed once it passes. Will try to post pics at sunrise.....just heard big thunder.  As we say here "Tidal Blessings" .


Quoting 314. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Try this. Paste the link like so https://bermudaweather.wordpress.com highlight it and press the link symbol underneath the comment box and paste it in there.

thanks GTs
Slight, but definite move east on last few radar images. Again, hoping that continues....

Link
we are anticipating the eye to pass ~12:00AST.
Quoting 297. Grothar:

Lopsided to the southwest



I think its just rotating around eye . a little while ago it looked lopsided to W
WOW , Nicole really lining up on Bermuda. if there is any small up side its that it will be light soon there and they dont have to face this beast in the dead of night. I have got to say though I'm have a real bad feeling about the Gibb Lighthouse, it just got done with the final restoratrion work this Febuary from Fabian and now this.
Nicole all grown up! Cat 4...Holy cow!
Quoting 308. KoritheMan:



I meant what I said. I DO wanna be in Bermuda, lol. If there's a good place to be in the Atlantic for a Category 4, it's Cuba or Bermuda.

As far as Bermuda goes I actually DO agree with you KtM. I 've been going there for the better part of 4 decades and it is extremely self reliant, well built, well funded and topigraghical well protected to approach patterns for most hurricanes. (except St. Georges parrish) I generally stay in Paget or Warwick area off middle rd and would say it would be quite the ride in a Cat 3+. Now getting off the island well that may take a while if you have responsibilities elsewhere . Never turn down a good adventure, they dont come around that often in life.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1100 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 9:05 PM PDT Wednesday...Latest satellite data
shows a plume of very moist air, with precipitable water values
close to 2 inches, streaming across the Pacific between 30-40N.
This plume is the "atmospheric river" that will be interacting
with a broad upper trough, currently sagging southeast out of the
Gulf of Alaska, to bring significant rainfall to the Pacific
Northwest and northern California later this week and through the
weekend. Current forecast timing looks to be on track with rain
expected to overspread the North Bay on Thursday Night and then
sweeping south through the remainder of our forecast area on
Friday. A period of heavy rain is certainly possible in the North
Bay late Thursday Night and locally south of the Golden Gate on
Friday morning. In addition, locally strong and gusty southerly
winds are expected across the Bay Area from about midnight
Thursday night through Friday morning.

Periods of rain are forecast to continue on through the weekend as
the upper trough remains offshore and interacts with remnants of
former typhoon Songda. This interaction may result in rapid deepening
of a surface low off the West Coast by Saturday morning. The
models position this potential deep surface low off the coast of
the Pacific Northwest, but its impacts would be felt as far south
as our area with additional periods of heavy rain by late
Saturday. And, the development of a deep surface low to our north
would result in widespread strong southerly winds across our
region on Saturday, with wind speeds likely higher than on
Thursday Night/Friday morning.

EPac 99E likely already a depression.
Morning all . My thoughts and prayers are with Bermuda today... one week ago I was brewing my last pot of coffee before the the power went out. I'm still without power this morning. Hope Bermuda escapes this fate.

Early morning showers alerted me to yet another leaky spot in the roof. Thought we'd found them all.... :-/ Hopefully the sun will dry us out quickly and I can get to it sooner rather than later.

Gotta say.... after a relatively slow September, October has been pretty exciting..... lol
Good morning everyone. So; these are the two Bermuda cams i've seen listed here; are there any others?
Pembroke, Bermuda Earthcam - Link
Port Bermuda WebCam - (Is this one working for anyone?) - Link
336. CC45
Quoting 335. SPShaw:

Good morning everyone. So; these are the two Bermuda cams i've seen listed here; are there any others?
Pembroke, Bermuda Earthcam - Link
Port Bermuda WebCam - (Is this one working for anyone?) - Link

The Port Bermuda cam has been down for me since yesterday morning. I haven't found any others.
Quoting 335. SPShaw:

Good morning everyone. So; these are the two Bermuda cams i've seen listed here; are there any others?
Pembroke, Bermuda Earthcam - Link
Port Bermuda WebCam - (Is this one working for anyone?) - Link


First link works, second link doesn't work for me. I also have this link from the Bermuda Weather Service.
Also, here is a long loop of Nicole (does take a while to load) It shows the EWRC that now has expanded Nicole's eye. The 250km radar loop.
Quoting 334. BahaHurican:

Morning all . My thoughts and prayers are with Bermuda today... one week ago I was brewing my last pot of coffee before the the power went out. I'm still without power this morning. Hope Bermuda escapes this fate.

Early morning showers alerted me to yet another leaky spot in the roof. Thought we'd found them all.... :-/ Hopefully the sun will dry us out quickly and I can get to it sooner rather than later.

Gotta say.... after a relatively slow September, October has been pretty exciting..... lol


Any idea when you'll get your power back?
Quoting 302. listenerVT:

Holy Schmokes, Nicole!

Gosh, what is it with the storms this Autumn? They sure pack a lot of oomph!

Hoping the folks on Bermuda fare well.



She's related to Matthew and Gastonic Gaston
Quoting 336. CC45:


The Port Bermuda cam has been down for me since yesterday morning. I haven't found any others.
Quoting 337. AussieStorm:



First link works, second link doesn't work for me. I also have this link from the Bermuda Weather Service.
Also, here is a long loop of Nicole (does take a while to load) It shows the EWRC that now has expanded Nicole's eye. The 250km radar loop.

Thanks to both of you for the reply. The EarthCam seems like the best option then. Hope it survives the coming storm.
Morning all, a breezy one here in Bermuda! We have had upwards of 64 kts through the night and things are starting to pick-up rapidly, 2 tornadoes reported thus far.

A good link for our radar and lightning strike loop: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=LOCA L_SATELLITE&user=

Live Blog from local media which will keep you up to date:
http://bernews.com/2016/10/live-updates-key-point s-hurricane-nicole/

Will take some video late, but wanted to get this out before power goes.
Good Morning and stay safe Bermuda.
Quoting 341. DevilsIsles:

Morning all, a breezy one here in Bermuda! We have had upwards of 64 kts through the night and things are starting to pick-up rapidly, 2 tornadoes reported thus far.

A good link for our radar and lightning strike loop: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=LOCA L_SATELLITE&user=

Live Blog from local media which will keep you up to date:
http://bernews.com/2016/10/live-updates-key-point s-hurricane-nicole/

Will take some video late, but wanted to get this out before power goes.



Thanx for that DI.......kepp yer head down & your ears perked !! Godspeed
Anyone know when the next recon is! Seems it will be CAT 4 at landfall here today which should start around 11am local time. We are now getting Hurricane force gusts, will start getting higher intensity in the next hour or so.

Hopefully the forward speed, shear and dry air to the north start playing a part.
Stay safe, Devilsisles!
Good morning. Bermuda should be fine regarding Nicole. Latest satellite images show that it's not only starting to weaken (as expected), but also the eye will likely pass just east of the island, putting them on the weaker side, relatively speaking. They know what they're doing when it comes to hurricanes.

Bermuda looks to go almost dead center!

One good thing about Nicole's timing:
High tide was at 6:36 am (ADT) this morning.
Low tide will be at 12:48 pm (ADT) this afternoon.
So, high tides won't be a factor for any storm surge.
Bermuda Esso Pier, St. Georges, Bermuda Tide Chart - Link
Quoting 337. AussieStorm:



First link works, second link doesn't work for me. I also have this link from the Bermuda Weather Service.
Also, here is a long loop of Nicole (does take a while to load) It shows the EWRC that now has expanded Nicole's eye. The 250km radar loop.


Switch to the 100 km loop and check out all the rotating cells in the northern band to the north of Bermuda. There's a whole line of cells that are rotation and most likely have water spouts with them.
I was in a hurricane that passed over Bermuda in '87 when I was a kid. Eye went right over the whole island. For the most part everything was fine, lot of trees down. Bermuda is actually quite hilly.
Quoting 346. MAweatherboy1:

Good morning. Bermuda should be fine regarding Nicole. Latest satellite images show that it's not only starting to weaken (as expected), but also the eye will likely pass just east of the island, putting them on the weaker side, relatively speaking. They know what they're doing when it comes to hurricanes.




It is still a strong 110 kt Cat 3 according to the 8 am NHC update. It also looks like the northern eyewall will hit Bermuda:

Quoting 344. DevilsIsles:

Anyone know when the next recon is! Seems it will be CAT 4 at landfall here today which should start around 11am local time. We are now getting Hurricane force gusts, will start getting higher intensity in the next hour or so.

Hopefully the forward speed, shear and dry air to the north start playing a part.

En Route: Link
Quoting 350. Carnivorous:

Very good Live Stream from Bermuda


Thanks, a stream where you can actually see something.

The new 8 AM advisory may have weakened Nicole to a 125 mph storm, but it's still a very dangerous hurricane and if Nicole holds on to that intensity when it hits Bermuda in the next advisory or two, it may even be worse than Fabian. Hopefully everyone on Bermuda is prepared for this thing.
Quoting 351. aldente:

I was in a hurricane that passed over Bermuda in '87 when I was a kid. Eye went right over the whole island. For the most part everything was fine, lot of trees down. Bermuda is actually quite hilly.

That was Hurricane Emily, but Emily of 1987 was only a category 1 when it hit Bermuda and was moving very fast when it did so, Nicole is a slower-moving category 3, like Fabian when it struck 13 years ago.
Bermuda really has dodged a bullet this morning, that turn will put them on the leeward side of the storm which while will still be like a cat1-2 hurricane nothing like what they would have faced wind and surge wise if they were on the windward side or a direct hit. As a country that is great with dealing with hurricanes I don't expect any deaths and really not that much damage.

Good Morning. Looks like a quick glancing blow on the East side of Bermuda as noted below.........Good News for them; they look to be going through a strong band now but things should start to taper down by the afternoon. However, every wobble counts and there has been a slight wobble to the North this morning bringing the eye wall back into play.




I see the Euro and GFS have really toned down the idea of a Western Caribbean storm.
Quoting 346. MAweatherboy1:

Good morning. Bermuda should be fine regarding Nicole. Latest satellite images show that it's not only starting to weaken (as expected), but also the eye will likely pass just east of the island, putting them on the weaker side, relatively speaking. They know what they're doing when it comes to hurricanes.





It is weakening but despite satellite deterioration, remember that since it's not moving over land, there is a lot of momentum in all that wind energy in the eyewall. Look at the radar also. The island looks like it's going to take a direct hit from a strong band of heavy convection in the northern eyewall.

Sure, they're better prepared than many places, and yes it's weakening, but it's still going to likely pass over the island as a direct hit from a category 3, so it's going to get ugly.
Quoting 357. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Looks like a quick glancing blow on the East side of Bermuda as noted below.........Good News for them; they look to be going through a strong band now but things should start to taper down by the afternoon. However, every wobble counts and there has been a slight wobble to the North this morning bringing the eye wall back into play.







Look at the radar, the satellite is a bit deceiving, radar loops indicate it's going to go straight through the strong north eyewall.
Still Got power! It is really blowing outside! I am on the north side of the Island and wind is out the Se right now, will get it on the nose later today once the eye passes
Quoting 360. Jedkins01:



Look at the radar, the satellite is a bit deceiving, radar loops indicate it's going to go straight through the strong north eyewall.


Looks like you are correct; unless their doppler site is overloaded, I was on it 5 minutes ago and can't get it to load at the moment; wondering if it just went down because of high winds.
Quoting 356. VAbeachhurricanes:

Bermuda really has dodged a bullet this morning, that turn will put them on the leeward side of the storm which while will still be like a cat1-2 hurricane nothing like what they would have faced wind and surge wise if they were on the windward side or a direct hit. As a country that is great with dealing with hurricanes I don't expect any deaths and really not that much damage.




It's possible the cyclone is a bit tilted so the satellite presentation looks like it's going to past to the east, but look at the radar loops, looks like it is really going to go through the north eyewall and into the eye.

Easterly eye pass is most welcome!
Bermuda Webcam-Click on picture. Wait for ad to play.
Link
Quoting 351. aldente:

I was in a hurricane that passed over Bermuda in '87 when I was a kid. Eye went right over the whole island. For the most part everything was fine, lot of trees down. Bermuda is actually quite hilly.


Emily!? I remember her
Quoting 366. unknowncomic:

Bermuda Webcam-Click on picture. Wait for ad to play.
Link


Clicked on it just in time to see a sailboat go by from left to right.
Quoting 366. unknowncomic:

Bermuda Webcam-Click on picture. Wait for ad to play.
Link


On my computer you can't see anything because the video is focused on things (land/water) miles a way.


This cam is focused on things (trees, etc) that are very close so you get a good picture.
Posted by Quoting 350. Carnivorous:
Link
Looking at the RADAR, it appears that Bermuda is still going to get a significant hit by Hurricane Nicole. They are getting into the eyewall.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
800 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NICOLE CLOSING IN ON
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 65.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.
On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass near Bermuda
later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a gradual weakening
is forecast, Nicole is expected to remain a major hurricane when it
moves near Bermuda today.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A sustained
wind of 51 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was
recently reported at Pearl Island in Bermuda.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
very soon. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the
island.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
Here comes Nicole

I think we will see the La Nina conditions continue, at least a few months. Didn't agree with NOAA ending their La Nina watch at all. Lately ENSO has been moving in larger than normal steps, pretty much through this whole transition.. When they said the atmosphere wasn't responding ESPI had risen abruptly and in a big step up to -.5 but it was expected after the last few big steps and never got out of the range that indicated anything other than La Nina was coming. It is now -1.78 (screaming moderate La Nina).

SOI has gone through similar. Like today's daily is negative (leaning warmer), the overall trend is the opposite (growing more positive) and shows a slow slide into La Nina conditions.
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 13 Oct 2016 Average for last 30 days 9.50
Average for last 90 days 7.93
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -18.24
Monthly average SOI values July 3.70
August 4.67
September 13.82

The EarthCam from Bermuda was a bit misty, now as you can see, it's a white out.
375. CC45
Quoting 350. Carnivorous:

Very good Live Stream from Bermuda

Thank You!
Thoughts and Good Vibes going out to friends in Bermuda this morning.
Stay safe !

In the meantime, Stuff and Whatnot coming together SSE of Jamaica, with good conditions prevailing for something to get going there.
Quoting 350. Carnivorous:

Very good Live Stream from Bermuda
Thanks!
379. NNYer
Quoting 377. Carnivorous:

It is getting very intense in Bermuda now!




Not sure if this link was previously posted: Link
Quoting 374. AussieStorm:


The EarthCam from Bermuda was a bit misty, now as you can see, it's a white out.


Cleared out quite a bit... At least 2 sailboats(That I've seen) have broke free and went by now.

Edit: Camera's down now.
Cantore - Nicole's center will miss Bermuda to the east. That's good news. That puts Bermuda on the "weaker" western side.
383. MahFL
Quoting 380. ChillinInTheKeys:



Cleared out quite a bit... At least 2 sailboats(That I've seen) have broke free and went by now.


Earthcam went down.
Quoting 291. nygiants:


Doubt this will happen with track..what do you think? It goes through Yucatan into BOC. CMC further west by Jamaica..just for fun right now though. No worries


Hi.
Quoting 296. KoritheMan:



Thanks, Gro. Those same people were also complaining that I've had so many vacations since Hermine. Like... they're adults... they know where to go if they want vacations themselves. Just really put me in a bad mood, those two things. Trying to be rational with my posts here on the blog, but it's hard atm.


Kori darlin', (I do that sometimes, blame my years as a lunchlady) folks like that can't see outside of their own reality tunnel.

I dropped damned near everything to get out of my married suburban housewife tunnel and move with longtime friends to help them with their dream, which paralleled mine - rural life, hard and frustrating. If I'd stayed I'd have been obese and alcoholic, but moving here puts me on track (despite what my bad days feel like) to actually have a future and heck, if Google Earth ever updates images, it's even possible to see how I, me, physically and materially, have brought about changes to this planet.

You have a reality in mind? Bust out of that tunnel and make things happen.
Latest Bermuda ob

Time Sky / Weather Wind Speed/Gusts Temp. R.H. Pressure
knots (mph) °C (°F) % mb / "Hg
09:55 Overcast Showers E 51/69 (59/79) 25(76) 95 986 / 29.11
387. MahFL
Quoting 382. Sfloridacat5:

Cantore - Nicole's center will miss Bermuda to the east. That's good news. That puts Bermuda on the "weaker" western side.


Eye might be wobbling back to the NW actually.
Quoting 382. Sfloridacat5:

Cantore - Nicole's center will miss Bermuda to the east. That's good news. That puts Bermuda on the "weaker" western side.


What? The strong northern eyewall is about to hit:

Bermuda radar close up: Eyewall approaching from the south:


(Saved). Source.

Good luck, Bermuda! Stay strong.
392. MahFL
Strong convective burst on the NE eyewall, right at landfall...
Look at those seas today and the next few days in Bermuda: Link

Quoting 388. Carnivorous:



What? The strong northern eyewall is about to hit:




Looking at the webcam it is really nasty there right now.
Latest Conditions
At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
Recorded at 10:04 am
Showers
Temp.:
25C/76F
Humidity:
95%
Wind:
E 58G74 KT
or 67G85 mph

The eyewall is fast approaching, during the time of observation, this livestream cam looked very intense, torrential rain and definitely hurricane force winds, now it has deteriorated to honestly some of the most impressive hurricane footage I've seen in a while. Good thing everything is well built there, it is about to get even much worse.

Link

Update on post #390: Now swallowed by the eyewall ... Webcam just got cleared by a guy. Heavy action!
398. MahFL
It will be interesting if that harbor cam stays up, the noise should drop off for a while, then pickup again.
Quoting 347. pingon:

Bermuda looks to go almost dead center!




Earnest Thoughts and Prayers for those being affected in Bermuda at the moment, please stay safe and sound everyone during this dangerous ordeal...This Too shall definitely pass! Hoping and praying for the very best outcome from Hurricane Nicole's ravages...
About the only saving grace about this ordeal is that its happening in the day time...thanks be to God!

God's Abundant Blessings to Everyone!
disturbance starting to form in sw carri.b. this could be a dangerous hurricane. plz stay off people that are not serious.
Live stream looks like a constant tornado right now, extreme conditions, this is what a major hurricane eyewall looks like!
402. IDTH

Quoting 257. KoritheMan:



Fay? I think you mean Fabian...


I did. Though they also got hit by a Fay recently.
Quoting 262. bigwes6844:


Omg that eye is almost like a cyclops eye. This maybe the worst case scenario for Bermuda.
Absolutely Intimidating! Even Watching it on Radar i am Spooked...
St. George's, north end of Bermuda

TWC said 118 mph gust at an elevated location.
ok Nicole ya had yer fun time to move up and out
Checking in, we are getting very severe conditions now, surprisingly I have power and internet!

All the best from Bermuda
409. MahFL
Eyewall :

Quoting 401. Jedkins01:

Live stream looks like a constant tornado right now, extreme conditions, this is what a major hurricane eyewall looks like!


That's what SE Florida luckily missed.
Damn, the webcab just went down in the eyewall.
000
WTNT65 KNHC 131333
TCUAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
935 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...

Surface observations indicate that sustained hurricane-force winds
are now occurring on Bermuda. A sustained wind of 79 mph (127 km/h)
and a gust to 105 mph (169 km/h) were recently reported at Pearl
Island. The Bermuda Weather Service reports that an elevated
station at Commissioner's Point recently reported a sustained wind
of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 122 mph (196 km/h).

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown
Quoting 411. Bucsboltsfan:

Damn, the webcab just went down in the eyewall.


This one is still up.
Link
415. MahFL
Wind noise has dropped off at the harbor.
Back up and in the eye.
Quoting 411. Bucsboltsfan:

Damn, the webcab just went down in the eyewall.


Yeah it was getting rocked around be some extreme down bursts, looks like a few of those tall trees in the back round were missing too. Winds were getting much worse just before it went out.
418. MahFL
Quoting 411. Bucsboltsfan:

Damn, the webcab just went down in the eyewall.


it's back up.
420. MahFL
Man that cam scared me with the loud bang !
15L/MH/N/C3
422. MahFL
Earthcam is backup too :

Link
Quoting 417. Jedkins01:



Yeah it was getting rocked around be some extreme down bursts, looks like a few of those tall trees in the back round were missing too. Winds were getting much worse just before it went out.


Its back up and in the eye.
424. MahFL
Eye becoming more circular again.
Quoting 423. Bucsboltsfan:



Its back up and in the eye.

Better check that it's actually live, not a replay of the last 2hrs
Quoting 423. Bucsboltsfan:



Its back up and in the eye.


No it's still down. What you see has been recorded two hours ago. This is from BER News: "We have had a live stream stream drop off, as we lost internet at the location, however still have one live video left....for now, this one is likely to drop as well!"
Quoting 422. MahFL:

Earthcam is backup too :

Link

Its down again.
I have to head to class, will be back later to see how things went.
Quoting 423. Bucsboltsfan:



Its back up and in the eye.


Based on 100 km radar at 9:44 am ET Bermuda was still not quite in the eye.
432. MahFL
Quoting 430. Sfloridacat5:



Based on 100 km radar at 9:38 am ET Bermuda was still not quite in the eye.


More like a break between the bands of rain.
Quoting 426. Carnivorous:



No it's still down. What you see has been recorded two hours ago. This is from BER News: "We have had a live stream stream drop off, as we lost internet at the location, however still have one live video left....for now, this one is likely to drop as well!"


I hope the 2nd stream doesn't go down. I want to see the change between eyewall and eye
Quoting 432. MahFL:



More like a break between the bands of rain.


So close. Looks like Bermuda may get into part of the eye pretty soon.

But TWC just said Bermuda will most likely stay in the western eye wall and will most likely not get into the center of the eye (clear skies).

We shall see.
All the best to the folks in Bermuda. Stay safe.
437. PTXer
The "Bermuda #2" still seems to be live. The building it is is doing some serious creaking. You can hear the UPS beeping in the background too. Won't be long before it runs out of power I'm sure.
438. elioe
Even though all eyes are now on Nicole's ongoing impact on Bermuda, I find this interesting:

Broken windows at Bermuda airport.
Wind has dropped out, we are getting the start of the eye
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
I have found the location of the second stream. It's NE of the Airport



And it's gone down and the eye is oh so close to.

Quoting 444. AussieStorm:

I have found the location of the second stream. It's NE of the Airport



And it's gone down and the eye is oh so close to.




That is correct, the location is St.Davids gas station. I live in Bermuda and know the dock it was facing and that bay.
This morning's view to the east:


And the north:


And the west:


And the south:


And a special bonus! I was out at 7am taking photos, and found a virga rainbow!