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Hurricane Warning in Bermuda as Category 2 Nicole Approaches

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2016

Flexing its muscle in the Northwest Atlantic, Hurricane Nicole could make a direct hit on Bermuda on Thursday. As of the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Nicole’s top sustained winds were up to 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm. Nicole was located 295 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and moving north at 7 mph, but it is expected to accelerate toward the north and northeast tonight and Thursday, bringing it over or very near the island around midday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect, with 3” - 6” of rain, hurricane-force winds, huge surf, and coastal flooding all possible.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Nicole as of 1437Z (10:37 am EDT) Wednesday, October 12, 2016. Bermuda is visible as the black speck at center top. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Nicole weakened from Category 2 to tropical storm strength over the weekend amid strong wind shear, but the shear had relaxed to less than 10 knots by Tuesday. The light shear and a modestly moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity around 50 - 55%) allowed for Nicole to regroup. The hurricane is also traveling over near-record-warm waters of around 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), which is about 1.5 - 2.0°C above average for mid-October. After it strafes Bermuda, Nicole will continue plowing into the North Atlantic, becoming a somewhat weaker but very large hurricane by Friday and Saturday before it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.

Nicole gives Bermuda its fourth hurricane warning in three years
For being a small island in a big ocean, Bermuda has had an inordinate amount of bad luck with hurricanes over the past three years. Nicole is the fourth storm in the past three years to put the island under a Hurricane Warning. Last year, Hurricane Joaquin passed about 65 miles west-northwest of Bermuda on October 5 as a Category 2 storm. Joaquin brought sustained winds of tropical storm force to Bermuda, and caused power outages to 15,000 of the island’s 36,000 customers. Damage was minor, though.

In 2014, two hurricanes hammered the island within a week in a damaging one-two punch. The first was Hurricane Fay, which hit Bermuda on October 12 as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, doing at least $10 million in damage. Just six days later, on October 18, a far worse storm made another direct hit on Bermuda--Hurricane Gonzalo, which made landfall as a strong Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 76 mph, with a gust to 96 mph, as the northern eyewall of Gonzalo passed overhead. After a calm lasting about an hour, when the pressure sank to 953 mb, the southern eyewall hit, with stronger winds than the northern eyewall--93 mph, gusting to 113 mph. An unofficial gust of 144 mph was recorded at Commissioners Point at an elevation of 262', a site notorious for recording strong winds due to local terrain effects. The hurricane did an estimated $200 - $400 million in damage to Bermuda, making it the second costliest storm in their history. The costliest was Category 3 Hurricane Fabian of 2003, the only hurricane to get its name retired exclusively because of its impact on the island of Bermuda. Fabian's storm surge destroyed the causeway connecting the airport to the rest of the island and did $300 million in damage. Fabian also killed four people--the only hurricane deaths ever recorded on Bermuda.

While a direct hit on Bermuda is unusual, many hurricanes and tropical storms get close enough to cause trouble. In a local survey going back to 1609, the Bermuda Weather Service found that tropical cyclone damage was recorded about once every 6 to 7 years. From 1900 to 2007, the only direct hits cited by the agency were the Havana-Bermuda Hurricane of 1926, the Miami Hurricane of 1948, and Hurricane Arlene (1963). As with Fabian, a storm passing just west of the island need not be a direct hit to produce severe damage.


Figure 2. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.


Figure 3. Gonzalo as seen by the Bermuda radar at 9:43 pm ADT October 17, 2014, when the eye was over the island. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.



Figure 4. In hard-hit Lumberton, NC, on Wednesday, October 12, 2016, people look out towards West 5th Street, still covered by floodwaters caused by rain from Hurricane Matthew. Image credit: AP Photo/Mike Spencer.

From the Carolinas to Canada, Matthew-related woes continue to mount
Extensive and severe flooding continues to afflict parts of North Carolina near rain-swollen rivers in the wake of Hurricane Matthew. Thousands of people are still being evacuated, according to weather.com, including about 9000 people forced out of the Greenville area on Tuesday. At least 19 deaths have been confirmed across the state, and power remained out for more than 140,000 customers as of Wednesday morning. The Neuse and Tar river basins are two of the areas where rivers are still rising. As of Wednesday morning, the Neuse River at Kinston, NC, was predicted to crest on Friday near or just above the record set in 1999 by Hurricane Floyd. On Tuesday, the Neuse’s flood crest broke a Floyd-era record by nearly a foot at Goldsboro.

Matthew’s indirect effects have made it all the way to the Canadian Maritimes. Moisture from Matthew’s remnants was pulled northward ahead of an existing frontal system near the U.S. East Coast, then fed into an intensifying storm that deluged eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Some 50,000 Nova Scotia customers lost power on Tuesday, and thousands of basements were reportedly flooded. According to Nova Scotia meteorologist Jim Abraham, a preliminary one-day total rainfall of 225 mm (8.86”) reported in Sydney, the province’s second-largest city, is nearly double the city’s all-time one-day record of 129 mm set on August 17, 1981. Drone footage captured the extent of flooding on Tuesday. (Thanks to Chris Fogarty, Environment Canada, for background on this event.)


Figure 5. Typhoon Songda as captured by NASA’s Aqua satellite at 0305Z Wednesday, October 12, 2016 (11:05 pm EDT Tuesday). Image credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.

Remnants of Typhoon Songda will be heading for Pacific Northwest
The next tropical cyclone to affect the United States will hit the opposite side of the country from Matthew. Now accelerating to the northeast across the remote North Pacific, Typhoon Songda will contribute to a very soggy and stormy few days across the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada. Songda was still packing top sustained winds of 120 mph as of 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Wednesday, after briefly reaching super-typhoon strength Tuesday at an unusually high latitude--30.3°N--with peak winds of 150 mph. Songda will hitch a ride on a fast-moving segment of the jet stream and slam into the North American coast over the weekend. In his California Weather Blog, Daniel Swain notes that some recurving typhoons transition into post-tropical cyclones and strike the U.S. West Coast as identifiable storms, while others are absorbed into the jet stream and existing frontal systems. “It appeared that Songda will do a little of both--strengthening the overall storm track and persisting as a powerful remnant surface low as it treks eastward across the Pacific,” Swain wrote.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4” to 10” associated with the remnants of Songda will extend from British Columbia to northern California. Songda is just part of a series of storms that will drench the region over the next week. All told, some locations between the shoreline and the coastal mountains could receive 15” to 25” of rain. Very little of the heavy rain will extend south of the San Francisco area, but this isn’t too surprising given that we’re just at the start of the wet season.

We’ll be back with another post this afternoon on the U.S. climate roundup for September.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Double post by accident, my B.
Nicole is continuing to strengthen, could be quite a powerful system by the time it reaches Bermuda.
Nicole:



Doesn't look good for Bermuda.
Thank you...Must be strange being on the little spot in the Atlantic with a huge hurricane coming at you..Nicole's outflow looking quite impressive...


it looks to be getting stronger over the sat loop. i feel sorry for anyone going thru hurricanes for the remainder of 2016. anyone think we will hit 180% ace?
'... the Bermuda Weather Service found that tropical cyclone damage was recorded about once every 6 to 7 years.'[OP] as of three centuries - so the recent Bermuda streak that will entail 4 hurricane situations in three years is highly unusual, slightly like the 'US hurricane drought' is/was.

In statistics, there are always some malformed cherries. A continent having dodged the barrage for years and a pinpoint on the map being snipered relentlessly. But stranger things have happened, of course. But normality is the norm and the US now has two landfalls in one season.
Quoting 4. IDTH:

Nicole is continuing to strengthen, could be quite a powerful system by the time it reaches Bermuda.
Yep. I would be finishing up or done with me precautions to be sure.
12z GFS and CMC still developing the system GFS western carribbean while the CMC show another Haiti hit what will the Euro show let see I hope Haiti will not see any more storm
Quoting 5. Envoirment:

Nicole:



Doesn't look good for Bermuda.


Kinda reminds me of Gastonic Gaston.

Let's call her Nicolish Nicole.
Nice, straight-line sheer-off of Nicole's westernmost CDO, and the resulting dry slot closer to its center in the south on GOES infrared. Another one of those interesting straight-line, um... thingees can be seen filling the western gap created by the rather instantly disappearing convection.

Link

Coincidentally, and again, that straight line points exactly toward Puerto Rico. :-)

Link

Jo
last i remembered Bermuda has some of the strongest building codes in the western hemisphere..Im sure they are more than prepared
Not looking good for Bermuda. Prayers.
Re: Songda remnants onto NW Coast...
WPC Excessive rainfall outlooks are marginal for today through Friday EXCEPT extreme So Oregon and along NorCal coast showing a slight risk of excessive rainfall tomorrow.

Interesting find, the NOAA Meterological Development Lab, Extra-tropical tide and Mean High Water map, includes all US coastlines - except Hawaii. Lpl
(image is a link)


Another link there gives us "Extra-tropical water level guidance"...

Bueller, I asked this question about post-tropical storms tongue-in-cheek a while back, and I will ask again. When its remnants or the storm reach EPAC longitude, will NHC pick up Songda?...as post-tropical? ...extra-tropical? or does that policy just work for a storm they are currently following on the east coast?
Quoting 11. 62901IL:



Kinda reminds me of Gastonic Gaston.

Let's call her Nicolish Nicole.

Beat me to it
Nicole is looking pretty healthy. Time for Bermuda to HUNKER DOWN! Good luck, guys!
What a beautiful but terrifying storm we have in Nicole.
Hurricane Nicole looks menacing, how is this not a major hurricane, with a well defined donut shape eye? Looks similar to her brother Gaston.

3 landfalling hurricanes in 3 years (JQ as Masters noted was just offshore) for Bermuda would have to be the highest frequency in their recorded history.
The trend has been that October is becoming more active than September.
Quoting 11. 62901IL:



Kinda reminds me of Gastonic Gaston.

Let's call her Nicolish Nicole.


Knock-out Nikki or Nefarious Nicole sound better lol
Quoting 11. 62901IL:



Kinda reminds me of Gastonic Gaston.

Let's call her Nicolish Nicole.


Let's put it to a vote



Quoting 21. RitaEvac:

The trend has been that October is becoming more active than September.


Active and the most impactful to land. Sucks that storms like Collin and Ian happened because the post-peak productivity is how I based my preseason storm numbers.

Might look up other eras in the records that had quite active Octobers when compared to the norm if I ever have time.

If you want to cruise the island of Bermuda without actually going there, it's all there on google street view for the world.
Now then...
Day 2 QPF. Thursday 5 am Pacific time thru Friday 5 am Pacific time.


Days 1 thru 3 QPF 5am Pacific today thru 5am Pacific time Saturday


Additional rain forecast for Days 4 and 5 - 5am Pacific Sat thru 5am Pacific time Moonday


Day 1-7 total, and probably not over yet...


Epic. Maybe StormDrain will open a wu blog with some links and stuff about this Songda business. Unless BayFog or Seattleite or somebody on the west coast wants to.
Quoting 21. RitaEvac:

The trend has been that October is becoming more active than September.
Yep, and soon it will be November and December and we'll have longer summers and shorter winters. Just take a look at the Atlantic sea surface temperature profile. Look how warm it is offshore of the Northeast and Gulf of Alaska.



http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Live webcam for you guys to watch, hopefully it is still running mid day tomorrow.

Going to decant a 20 year old Burgundy this evening, well deserved after securing the home and the boat. If I have power and internet tomorrow will drop in on the blog as to update on how things are progressing. I am on the north side of Bermuda in the mid-eastern portion of the Island. If she passes us to the west we will get it strong from the south which means I can watch a bit from my porch which faces the north shore. If the eye goes right over us then I will get winds on the nose from back side of the eye wall.
Quoting 27. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yep, and soon it will be November and December and we'll have longer summers and shorter winters. Just take a look at the Atlantic sea surface temperature profile. Look how warm it is offshore of the Northeast and Gulf of Alaska.




That would be wonderful, Hurricanes and Storms to track year round, and sea breeze Thunderstorms year round. in Florida. Couldn't ask for more, well maybe more major landfalls.
Nicole may make minimal cat 3 status, but that's probably all it has in the tank. The TCHP is just a little too low in this area to support anything much higher.

It's in the best conditions it'll see in the next 24 hours with excellent outflow and structure, it just doesn't have the fuel for explosive deepening, that's why the cloud tops aren't all that cold.
@barefootontherocks, still nothing for poor Ped and socal..
Cliff Mass says, "So much intense weather is going to hit us, that I don't know where to start...but let me try.

On Thursday afternoon, a strong Pacific cyclone, with a 982 mb central pressure will approach our coast, with a huge pressure gradient and strong winds to its south..."


Details in his blog from Tuesday Oct. 11, 2016.
Couldn't really see but does the 12z GFS still put a storm in the SW Carribbean
Quoting 19. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hurricane Nicole looks menacing, how is this not a major hurricane, with a well defined donut shape eye? Looks similar to her brother Gaston.




Aren't the cloud tops pretty warm for it to be major? It looks like a well-formed hurricane with a low central pressure, but also low sustained winds. Actually reminds me of Alex.

Addition: actually reminds me of Alex (2010) in terms of pressure-wind relationship, and Alex (2016) in terms of good structure with warm cloud tops.
Quoting 31. win1gamegiantsplease:

@barefootontherocks, still nothing for poor Ped and socal..
At least NorCal snow and rain eventually trickle down to help with SoCal water supply.
I do feel for Pedley in terms of the dry ground, and heat and dry air and all. Hard to see and experience an extreme (add: / exceptional drought). Feels never-ending, but it does end. And Ped's will also...
Nicole is really get her self together. This has Cat 3 written all over it. If anybody is ready for a hurricane it is definitely Bermuda folks. They dealt good with Earl as a Cat 4 in 2010. I wonder if Cantore is coming out there this year too?
Quoting 36. bigwes6844:

Nicole is really get her self together. This has Cat 3 written all over it. If anybody is ready for a hurricane it is definitely Bermuda folks. They dealt good with Earl as a Cat 4 in 2010. I wonder if Cantore is coming out there this year too?
Earl in 2010 passed well south of Bermuda and was no where near a cat 4 close to the island.Igor effected the island as a cat 1 storm before eventually affecting Newfoundland.
Well Then...
12z Euro still showing development in the Western Caribbean. A rather large area of low pressure, monsoonal in nature. Models tend to struggle with these types of development, especially if there are competing vortices. Nevertheless, there should be a lot convection down there which will result in days of heavy rain for Jamaica, Cuba, and unfortunately Haiti.

Whoa!

One macro benefit of Tropical Cyclones like Nicole and Matthew is a shifting of tropical heat to the poles, which prevent the tropics from getting too warm and the poles from getting too cold. It is something that hasn't occurred much in the Atlantic in a few years. It's a shame that macro benefit benefit comes with the micro detriment of the deaths of hundreds to thousands every year. Tropical Cyclones have a great importance to the stability of the earth's climate, but to the people it affects, they obviously could care less, I know I did after Wilma.
Quoting 2. Grothar:




When I play in fun golf tournaments many times they have a contest of who can come closest to the line down the middle of the fairway. I think this one wins.
GFS keeps playing around with a system in the caribbean. Something to watch for sure but too far out.
IsBaha ok?
Quoting 40. nygiants:

Whoa!



Otto can stay away from cuba haiti bahmas and east coast
Quoting 45. Icybubba:


Otto can stay away from cuba haiti bahmas and east coast

Mother nature may be like "Matthew was just a taste of whats coming" Not funny nor a good thing :(
Quoting 36. bigwes6844:

Nicole is really get her self together. This has Cat 3 written all over it. If anybody is ready for a hurricane it is definitely Bermuda folks. They dealt good with Earl as a Cat 4 in 2010. I wonder if Cantore is coming out there this year too?

It was igor.
48. IDTH
Quoting 39. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12z Euro still showing development in the Western Caribbean. A rather large area of low pressure, monsoonal in nature. Models tend to struggle with these types of development, especially if there are competing vortices. Nevertheless, there should be a lot convection down there which will result in days of heavy rain for Jamaica, Cuba, and unfortunately Haiti.



Euro seems to show low pressure in that area in the shorter term than the GFS.
Quoting 32. Barefootontherocks:

Cliff Mass says, "So much intense weather is going to hit us, that I don't know where to start...but let me try.

On Thursday afternoon, a strong Pacific cyclone, with a 982 mb central pressure will approach our coast, with a huge pressure gradient and strong winds to its south..."


Details in his blog from Tuesday Oct. 11, 2016.

Nice link, thank you, though with worrisome content!
This morning I've warned our old (so called) aunt in Seattle that she should be prepared for the storms. She just mailed that she also got special warnings from her daughter who is in the forerstry (umm, probably a lot of fresh wood available next week), and, of course, the weathermen are onto this storm as well. A lot of large trees around our friend's houses ... I really hope it won't be too bad, huh.
Regardless of how much rain actually falls on a given location, the fact is starting tonight and going through the weekend will be wet, wet, wet, for the US PNW.

Peak of the storm progression according to Northwest River Forecast Center (NRFC):


10-day graphical forecast:
http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi
Quoting 44. Icybubba:

IsBaha ok?

She is. Was on the blog already several times.
Quoting 41. ElConando:

One macro benefit of Tropical Cyclones like Nicole and Matthew is a shifting of tropical heat to the poles, which prevent the tropics from getting too warm and the poles from getting too cold. It is something that hasn't occurred much in the Atlantic in a few years. It's a shame that macro benefit benefit comes with the micro detriment of the deaths of hundreds to thousands every year. Tropical Cyclones have a great importance to the stability of the earth's climate, but to the people it affects, they obviously could care less, I know I did after Wilma.

True. Unless especially the north pole recently got quite warm anyway ;-)
Thanks for the update gentlemen! You guys have been doing a bang up job since Matthew started and I really appreciate it! Bermuda on the lookout!
Quoting 52. barbamz:


True. Unless especially the north pole recently got quite warm anyway ;-)


It's super warm on the North Slope of Alaska...
55. 7544
Quoting 45. Icybubba:


Otto can stay away from cuba haiti bahmas and east coast


look at the trof coming in hmm timing will be the key for fl aka wilma lol

also look at the bahamas today is somthing trying to get goin there closer to home tia
Quoting 39. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12z Euro still showing development in the Western Caribbean. A rather large area of low pressure, monsoonal in nature. Models tend to struggle with these types of development, especially if there are competing vortices. Nevertheless, there should be a lot convection down there which will result in days of heavy rain for Jamaica, Cuba, and unfortunately Haiti.




Nothing consolidated yet on the ECMWF and the GFS keeps pushing back genesis time. Not too worried about this one yet.
Quoting 28. DevilsIsles:

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Live webcam for you guys to watch, hopefully it is still running mid day tomorrow.

Going to decant a 20 year old Burgundy this evening, well deserved after securing the home and the boat. If I have power and internet tomorrow will drop in on the blog as to update on how things are progressing. I am on the north side of Bermuda in the mid-eastern portion of the Island. If she passes us to the west we will get it strong from the south which means I can watch a bit from my porch which faces the north shore. If the eye goes right over us then I will get winds on the nose from back side of the eye wall.

Actually that camera gave us great video with Gonzalo and, if I'm not mistaken, worked for the entire event! I have it as one of my saved cameras for Bermuda , along with this one : Link
41. ElConando
2:36 PM EDT on October 12, 2016


Good afternoon; very interesting observation which also begs the question as to frequency of tropical storms in the past when the earth experienced a warming period (water-world with higher sea levels and melted ice caps). Would have been a positive feedback with tropical storms reinforcing arctic melt during these periods in the past. Our science can document past ice and warm periods based on earth cores and tree rings but I do not know if any research has been done on tropical storm frequency during ice ages (maybe less?) versus warm phases (maybe more?). Possibly some research on this issue out there that I may have missed but an interesting topic.
Quoting 56. CybrTeddy:



Nothing consolidated yet on the ECMWF and the GFS keeps pushing back genesis time. Not too worried about this one yet.

If you look at the past model runs, the storm is actually just in a different location, not too far pushed back...
Quoting 44. Icybubba:

IsBaha ok?
Hey, was just getting ready to check in .... LOL

Still no power, water or phone, but it looks like data is up in my area today. Reconnection is ongoing, but still lots of people off. The south coast of New Providence, North Andros and western Grand Bahama may be off for weeks.

School is supposed to start on Monday, but I'm guessing that's contingent on power supply being restored to most areas.

We have a long way to go, but we're going to make it.
Quoting 56. CybrTeddy:



Nothing consolidated yet on the ECMWF and the GFS keeps pushing back genesis time. Not too worried about this one yet.


Still a bit conserned abut the flooding potential thugh for areas affected already by Matthew. We'll see if there's an uptick in convection soon enough.
Recon on the runway:


The frontal zone associated with a strengthening Pacific jet running along about 40N: wave is forecast to develop with cyclogenesis occuring under the jet core due west of Cape Mendocino. This is a bit further west than the Columbus Day Storm of 1962, but somewhat similar otherwise. One key difference is that there is no former typhoon embedded within the storm as there was back then, and so the low should not deepen as much. But Typhoon Songda IS upstream in the same frontal zone and jet, and will contribute to a storm over the weekend that IS currently forecast to deepen rapidly.
I have not been blogging much since Mathew passed Florida to the North; all of the deaths and damage has me quite down...........Hoping that we are seeing the end of the current Atlantic season.
Quoting 59. nygiants:


If you look at the past model runs, the storm is actually just in a different location, not too far pushed back...


12z GFS yesterday showed initial genesis at 180 hours, now it's not until after 240 hours. Also, it's lost the significant ensemble report. Not to say we won't get anything as climo suggests we could. Keep your eyes peeled but don't chase ghosts.
Okay. Now I have dis-confused myself. At 36 hrs... GFS... Songda's energy still south of the Aleutians. This is a separate low coming in with 979 mb pressure.


At 72 hrs out on today's 12z GFS... Here's Songda's 962 mb low (not hi res) coming toward coast Saturday...


(Thanks for the images, Levi Cowan. :))

48 hour forecast chart indicates ex-Songda starting rapid intensification due north of Hawaii and due west of Cape Mendocino.
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

I have not been blogging much since Mathew passed Florida to the North; all of the deaths and damage has me quite down...........Hoping that we are seeing the end of the current Atlantic season.

I'll drink to that!
Update on Neuse river near Kingston, NC:

"The latest update from the National Weather Service says the Neuse River will crest in Kinston on Saturday morning at 28 feet. The record crest set in Hurricane Floyd was 27.7 feet. The Neuse River already set a new record high in Goldsboro early Wednesday morning at 29.73 Ft. The new high exceeded the old record of 28.90 Ft. set by Hurricane Floyd in 1999 in Goldsboro.

Crews were preparing Wednesday morning to go door-to-door in evacuation zones, urging people to flee. Mayor BJ Murphy says they've already been to each home that could be affected twice.

Power has nearly been restored to the entire city. At the height of the outage, 9,000 customers, which is 75% of Kinston's utility customers, lost power. As of Wednesday morning, the number was reduced to 12."


Link
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

I have not been blogging much since Mathew passed Florida to the North; all of the deaths and damage has me quite down...........Hoping that we are seeing the end of the current Atlantic season.
I keep watching the deep SW Car gyre .... not keen on seeing anything come out of there...
In Portland, OR... Was seriously considering a trip to the coast this weekend to watch the surf/winds. I'm now preparing to hunker down and not leave the house. We've 20 Doug Fir trees over 100' surrounding our house. I'll enjoy watching them sway, but maybe not so much the creaking. Funny, lived in FL and OK, 48h out both would have sent out panic alarms for this strong of a storm. Local weathermen "breezy and wet" conditions. Hopefully, they are right.

Quoting 32. Barefootontherocks:

Cliff Mass says, "So much intense weather is going to hit us, that I don't know where to start...but let me try.

On Thursday afternoon, a strong Pacific cyclone, with a 982 mb central pressure will approach our coast, with a huge pressure gradient and strong winds to its south..."


Details in his blog from Tuesday Oct. 11, 2016.
Quoting 50. OregonAndy:

Regardless of how much rain actually falls on a given location, the fact is starting tonight and going through the weekend will be wet, wet, wet, for the US PNW.

Peak of the storm progression according to Northwest River Forecast Center (NRFC):


10-day graphical forecast:
http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/weather/10_day.cgi
Being's the bulleyes of today's 1-7 day total QPF forecasts are over Siskiyous, Olympics, and Cascades , I was hopeful, and still am, that the 16-20" possibles will fall as 4- 5" of snow and stick for a while. Coast will still get a lot of rain. No doubt about that. And wind!

Your graphic showing one day only - 24 hrs ending Friday morning. Nice link, though. Temp forecasts there, as they are painted broadly, look iffy for snow, but the freezing levels support mountain snowfall. Good!

(Click for the loop). Songda comes into view in the upper left corner as the tail light of this huge atmospheric river.

Will windstorm history repeat this weekend in Seattle?
By Feliks Banel, Local historian | October 12, 2016
It’s the 54th anniversary of the infamous Oct. 12, 1962 “Columbus Day Storm” that devastated much of the Pacific Northwest with high winds and heavy rain.
Meteorologist Ted Buehner knows a lot about that storm, and about another potentially destructive storm that may be headed this way over the coming weekend. ...

More see link above.

How to cope with what’s shaping up as the Northwest’s ‘most powerful storm’
by Alan Boyle on October 12, 2016 at 10:59 am
Nicole looking better and better each new frame:




Nicole is French in this pic.....
notice the accent aigu
There is nothing normal nor the norm about Earth Atmo 2.0.


We have never had this much latent heat and global water vapor today, compared to the last 800,000 years.





.

WTPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 32.5N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
Quoting 74. barbamz:


(Click for the loop). Songda comes into view in the upper left corner as the tail light of this huge atmospheric river.

Will windstorm history repeat this weekend in Seattle?
By Feliks Banel, Local historian | October 12, 2016
It%u2019s the 54th anniversary of the infamous Oct. 12, 1962 %u201CColumbus Day Storm%u201D that devastated much of the Pacific Northwest with high winds and heavy rain.
Meteorologist Ted Buehner knows a lot about that storm, and about another potentially destructive storm that may be headed this way over the coming weekend. ...

More see link above.

How to cope with what%u2019s shaping up as the Northwest%u2019s %u2018most powerful storm%u2019
by Alan Boyle on October 12, 2016 at 10:59 am
lol Was just gonna post this WV image. Songda's there. Amazing, the stretch of water vapor.
For posterity, here's a static image of that WV loop, Oct 12, 2016 1 pm cdt


Also the visible static image, 1 pm cdt
Quoting 76. 19N81W:


Nicole is French in this pic.....
notice the accent aigu

That's Bermuda, as I'm sure others will point out, or were you just being clever? Anyway, Nicole is already as French as it can be.
Quoting 72. weavingwalker:

In Portland, OR... Was seriously considering a trip to the coast this weekend to watch the surf/winds. I'm now preparing to hunker down and not leave the house. We've 20 Doug Fir trees over 100' surrounding our house. I'll enjoy watching them sway, but maybe not so much the creaking. Funny, lived in FL and OK, 48h out both would have sent out panic alarms for this strong of a storm. Local weathermen "breezy and wet" conditions. Hopefully, they are right.


LOL. Yeah. Being on the coast and watching from a place high above the rocks is a spectacular experience. Cliff Mass is on top of this weather. I don't know about Portland TV mets. Steve Pool in Seattle would be.

Follow your instinct, and prepare. Don't forget gas for your vehicle and cash. I remember no power for 2 weeks on San Juan Island before they put the new underwater cable in. Trees will fall. A Doug Fir got my Dad's brand new Karmann Ghia in 1962 Columbus Day. Can relate to the firs surrounding you. Falling fir trees about took out our home in the woods, mid-80s, after which a lot of those big firs got cut and became firewood. :)

Just one other note. The strong winds may be more widespread than currently imagined (ie, forecasted).
Doe anyone remember the names for the storms of this year so far? I need to remember! It was in a blog i think last month. If found, please tell me!
Quoting 81. LesBonsTemps:


That's Bermuda, as I'm sure others will point out, or were you just being clever? Anyway, Nicole is already as French as it can be.


Being bilingual, I thought it was clever haha. They mean the island itself looks like an accent over the "e", comme Nicolé.

Although, in all serious, Nicole might be one of even fewer hurricanes to be strengthening upon affecting Bermuda rather than weakening. She is looking MEAN.
Quoting 77. Patrap:

There is nothing normal nor the norm about Earth Atmo 2.0.


We have never had this much latent heat and global water vapor today, compared to the last 800,000 years.






Not much to hang your hat on since the earth is over 4 billion years old.
Quoting 49. barbamz:


Nice link, thank you, though with worrisome content!
This morning I've warned our old (so called) aunt in Seattle that she should be prepared for the storms. She just mailed that she also got special warnings from her daughter who is in the forerstry (umm, probably a lot of fresh wood available next week), and, of course, the weathermen are onto this storm as well. A lot of large trees around our friend's houses ... I really hope it won't be too bad, huh.
Probably said enough here for now, but I wanted to answer you. Very fun kind of storms, actually. Sorry I am not there. Hehehe. The big Firs trees, also the Western Red Cedar, shallow rooted as they are, fall randomly, barb, so no telling. Have seen more than one get killed from falling trees when they (the persons) were driving down a highway. At least the weather's not real cold yet. Wish you and yours the best. They will be okay.
Quoting 80. Barefootontherocks:

lol Was just gonna post this WV image. Songda's there. Amazing, the stretch of water vapor.
For posterity, here's a static image of that WV loop, Oct 12, 1 pm cdt


Also the visible static image, 1 pm cdt


Songda still looks distinctly tropical, moving as a stacked system in the westerlies ahead of a frontal zone.
just having a little fun
but Nicole is no laughing matter I am amazed at how it spun up
Quoting 81. LesBonsTemps:


That's Bermuda, as I'm sure others will point out, or were you just being clever? Anyway, Nicole is already as French as it can be.
As of now:

90. vis0
(IF YOU ARE IN NICOLEs PATH DO NOT USE MY WORDS AS A FORECAST USE OFFICIAL REPORTS and skip over this comment).
Now i have to include why as to my following statement. Though the why involves my nutty theories and imagined weather influencing device.
 
i see Nicole is healthier and prognosticated to head close to if not over Bermuda .
 
My interest is also as to that Front in the MidWest just south and across the USofA Great Lakes.
i'm watching to see how Nicole "behaves" as that front reaches / enters western NYS and Western Pennsylvania.
 
If Nicole becomes a bit raggedy before that Front passes the aforementioned areas be aware that if the Front enters the areas of Western NYS and PA. Nicole might suddenly improve her form and if that happens before landfall well here's my other question...NOT ALARMING just wondering aloud.

 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==
 
A connected question to a comment i enjoyed a day or so ago was as to the exponential force as to Hurricanes. 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=256 thingy.
 
Now could it be that the reason some people become complacence and other swear that even a cat 1 is dangerous - BESIDES THE FACT AS TO WINDS OF THOSE SPEEDS RELATED TO CATEGORIES OF HURRICANES - is how they "felt" a particular hurricane as to it suddenly downgrading or upgrading as it reached the shore.
 
Meaning that if as the hurricane of a cat 1 reaches land yet for whatever reasoning is improving its force(s) then maybe at that point it releases its  cat1 down bursts as if a cat2 AS IN not in the winds of cat2 BUT in cat 1 strongest winds but stronger at one place in reaching GUSTs of Cat2 levels  more often,, a longer duration of cat1 and a wider coverage of a cat1 so those within that experience feel the force rising not just physically but mentally due to pressures not rising as fast.
 
The same as to a cat 2 arriving on Land as it lowers its forces (winds/gusts) so now people think ah that was nothing cause the cat2 in breaking up as it reached land has low level cat1, the width of cat2 winds is very small and the duration much shorter than expected.
 
THIS DOES NOT MEAN GO OUT INTO ANY HURRICANE as the sudden changes can be towards strength and your caught in no mans lands with pain building up as pieces of furniture hit yer face, stick into your eyes break a bone in your body. Heck look as how fast from TS to cat3 all it takes is one life lost for it to be yours and the pains many so these questions are to be figured out through known observations done through instruments not someone standing out in harms way.
 
THE LONG AWAITED QUESTION::
Now when this happens from a cat1 to cat3 or cat3 to 4 or cat4 to cat5 i wonder if that threshold being so much higher leads to severe tornadoes on its last to enter land side so a severe Hurricane entering Florida from the East has Tornadoes more onto its NE side while a severe Hurricane entering Florida from the West would have its strongest Tornadoes or more on the NW quad?
 
 
Tonite i hope to post a better animation of Lisa to Nicole VID and my reply to the last blog and MODs it'll be on that blog so i hope it can stay there, again of course its up to the MODs but i warn so they can yank it immediately. odds are around 10pm-12nitenoon both will be upD the VID on the latest of Dr. Masters blogbytes, while the reply to why p think MATTHEW "acted" as it did on Dr. Masters #3476
Quoting 85. noraneinsite:

Not much to hang your hat on since the earth is over 4 billion years old.


ya but humans have only been around for 200,000 years, so it's in a big deal from OUR vantage point. ya when the earth was still boiling and bubbling with lava it was much hotter, but there wasnt much life around then, if any. our changing atmosphere, is a big deal for us and our ever expanding species.
Quoting 67. Barefootontherocks:

Okay. Now I have dis-confused myself. At 36 hrs... GFS... Songda's energy still south of the Aleutians. This is a separate low coming in with 979 mb pressure.


At 72 hrs out on today's 12z GFS... Here's Songda's 962 mb low (not hi res) coming toward coast Saturday...


(Thanks for the images, Levi Cowan. :))
Can you imagine what this blog would look like if that was facing Florida this weekend? :)
Quoting 54. Dakster:



It's super warm on the North Slope of Alaska...

I notice that with the exception of the North Slope, most LAND areas surrounding the Arctic Ocean are significantly cooler now than the open sea areas. Buoys are still showing 30-40 F air temps outside of the ice cap.
Quoting 74. barbamz:


(Click for the loop). Songda comes into view in the upper left corner as the tail light of this huge atmospheric river.

Will windstorm history repeat this weekend in Seattle?
By Feliks Banel, Local historian | October 12, 2016
It’s the 54th anniversary of the infamous Oct. 12, 1962 “Columbus Day Storm” that devastated much of the Pacific Northwest with high winds and heavy rain.
Meteorologist Ted Buehner knows a lot about that storm, and about another potentially destructive storm that may be headed this way over the coming weekend. ...

More see link above.

How to cope with what’s shaping up as the Northwest’s ‘most powerful storm’
by Alan Boyle on October 12, 2016 at 10:59 am

Thx for posting those. The NHC satellite page doesn't render the Northeast Pacific images in GIF, so I can't post them here. Did you go thru the trouble of converting to GIF or did you find a page where they come that way?
Quoting 77. Patrap:

There is nothing normal nor the norm about Earth Atmo 2.0.


We have never had this much latent heat and global water vapor today, compared to the last 800,000 years.








The only constant is change. Bust way to cope is to embrace and/or adapt to what you cannot change.
Quoting 77. Patrap:

There is nothing normal nor the norm about Earth Atmo 2.0.


We have never had this much latent heat and global water vapor today, compared to the last 800,000 years.








The only constant is change. Best way to cope is to embrace and/or adapt to what you cannot change.
Quoting 92. pingon:

Can you imagine what this blog would look like if that was facing Florida this weekend? :)
LOL. Oh, yes. At least the storm is getting a mention at the main blog. End of '05 and in 2006 winter, first year of these blogs, Shaun Tanner once in a while posted a "west coast" blog and another lady from WA and I and Taz would sometimes comment there about storms rolling into the west coast. But, mostly, Pacific storms were not a popular item at wu. I doubt they are even now. :)

And that made me think of the buoy data we used. Buoys can be helpful when watching a Pacific storm's potential effects. Lot of "bare" spots on radar.
Nicole 95 kts. 109 mph.
Quoting 91. earthisanocean:



ya but humans have only been around for 200,000 years, so it's in a big deal from OUR vantage point. ya when the earth was still boiling and bubbling with lava it was much hotter, but there wasnt much life around then, if any. our changing atmosphere, is a big deal for us and our ever expanding species.


Everyone should read up on the little ice age from 1275 - 1450 AD. Notice how it came an abruptly. Humans have a habit of forgetting our lives are but a dot on the scale of time for earth's cyclical changes.
Wikipeida - Little Ice Age
Recon is in the air:



Looks like something went wrong with the first plane - it never took off - and a new one was prepped (the one in the air).
Quoting 97. Barefootontherocks:

LOL. Oh, yes. At least the storm is getting a mention at the main blog. End of '05 and in 2006 winter, first year of these blogs, Shaun Tanner once in a while posted a "west coast" blog and another lady from WA and I and Taz would sometimes comment there about storms rolling into the west coast. But mostly, Pacific storms were not a popular item at wu. I doubt they are even now. :)

And that made me think of the buoy data we used. Buoys can be helpful when watching a Pacific storm's potential effects. Lot of "bare" spots on radar.

Back in '06 there was a very interesting storm in the north pacific ... maybe a hurricane maybe not. At the time i was convinced this was an unnamed hurricane some 800 miles off the oregon coast .. then there was a blizzard/nor'easter that following winter that also featured an eye .. so now im not so sure. Either way ... point being .. pacific storms can be crazy too and fun to watch.

Nose of energetic Pacific jet has reached the coast at about Cape Mendocino, carrying underneath it the moisture plume fed by Typhoon Songda. The Typhoon has reached the latitude of San Francisco and is about to reach the axis of the jet at 40N. It should accelerate eastward at that point as it undergoes extratropical transition, becoming a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone. The surface wind field should then also expand.
Quoting 99. StormHype:



Everyone should read up on the little ice age from 1275 - 1450 AD. Notice how it came an abruptly. Humans have a habit of forgetting our lives are but a dot on the scale of time for earth's cyclical changes.
Wikipeida - Little Ice Age


humans also have a habit of naively thinking their actions are separated from earth's changes. read up on some basic physics of heat transfer, carbon dioxide emissions etc. and remember that we are just a blip on the timeline of earth, but the biggest blip the earth has ever seen (in terms of our affect on earth, it's systems, and the other species who live here too.)

why is that article relevant? i guarantee you any kind of large scale cooling (except in areas with influxes of cold, melting, freshwater) or any kind of ice age, is not happening anytime in the near future. bill nye recently said, we'll never have ice ages again. i can find the link if you want.
Quoting 102. BayFog:


Nose of energetic Pacific jet has reached the coast at about Cape Mendocino, carrying underneath it the moisture plume fed by Typhoon Songda. The Typhoon has reached the latitude of San Francisco and is about to reach the axis of the jet at 40N. It should accelerate eastward at that point as it undergoes extratropical transition, becoming a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone. The surface wind field should then also expand.


What is that on the lower screen feeding moisture into Baja?
thats a long trip.....
Quoting 100. Envoirment:

Recon is in the air:



Looks like something went wrong with the first plane - it never took off - and a new one was prepped (the one in the air).
Remember when Gonzalo was hitting Bermuda they had that webcam on Ustream up?

Hopefully we can find something like that this time around.
Quoting 94. BayFog:


Thx for posting those. The NHC satellite page doesn't render the Northeast Pacific images in GIF, so I can't post them here. Did you go thru the trouble of converting to GIF or did you find a page where they come that way?


Welcome. And no, I did nothing. It was just a link to the html loop from this site.

BTW, here is the streaming earthcam from Seattle. Still sunny.
Quoting 103. earthisanocean:



humans also have a habit of naively thinking their actions are separated from earth's changes. read up on some basic physics of heat transfer, carbon dioxide emissions etc. and remember that we are just a blip on the timeline of earth, but the biggest blip the earth has ever seen (in terms of our affect on earth, it's systems, and the other species who live here too.)

why is that article relevant? i guarantee you any kind of large scale cooling (except in areas with influxes of cold, melting, freshwater) or any kind of ice age, is not happening anytime in the near future. bill nye recently said, we'll never have ice ages again. i can find the link if you want.


Bill Nye is your authoritive reference for future ice age predictions? LMAO I'm pointing to facts historic climate anomalies (long by man's self aware gauge of time 200 years) and you are putting more weight on a hollywood TV actor's own prognostications as being 100% certain outcomes. (This discussion is outside of man's ability or will to affect anything.)
Quoting 102. BayFog:


Nose of energetic Pacific jet has reached the coast at about Cape Mendocino, carrying underneath it the moisture plume fed by Typhoon Songda. The Typhoon has reached the latitude of San Francisco and is about to reach the axis of the jet at 40N. It should accelerate eastward at that point as it undergoes extratropical transition, becoming a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone. The surface wind field should then also expand.
Looks like Songda's gonna soon go gentle into that good night...
Graphic from your earlier comment...
Quoting 79. BayFog:

Quoting 102. BayFog:


Nose of energetic Pacific jet has reached the coast at about Cape Mendocino, carrying underneath it the moisture plume fed by Typhoon Songda. The Typhoon has reached the latitude of San Francisco and is about to reach the axis of the jet at 40N. It should accelerate eastward at that point as it undergoes extratropical transition, becoming a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone. The surface wind field should then also expand.


Ever since I moved to Western Washington in the 90's, I've heard about people going to Tofino- a coastal town on Vancouver Island, BC- to watch winter storms. The B&B's there advertise storm watching, with views of the beach. I bet it will be dramatic with this storm.
Quoting 83. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Doe anyone remember the names for the storms of this year so far? I need to remember! It was in a blog i think last month. If found, please tell me!

Here is the list.


From that page (click to enlarge).
Quoting 104. Greg01:



What is that on the lower screen feeding moisture into Baja?
Here's another WV view of it.

Add. Maybe this wv view is better.
Special weather statement in effect for:
Metro Vancouver
The first in a series of powerful October storms will arrive over the BC coast tonight. Light rain will develop early this evening and then become quite heavy overnight. Many areas will see rainfall amounts in the 30 to 50 mm range before the rain eases Thursday morning.

The break on Thursday will be short-lived as the second storm is forecast to move onto the coast Thursday evening. Rain will redevelop and stronger winds are expected with this second storm.

The third and potentially most powerful storm will approach the coast on Saturday. Very strong winds and heavy rainfall are again likely.

Total rainfall accumulations from these storms may exceed 200 mm for West and Inland areas of Vancouver Island. Inner coastal regions may exceed 100 mm with even higher amounts near the mountains.

As details concerning the precise storm track become clearer, warnings will be issued for multiple regions throughout the next several days.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.
Quoting 111. annabatic:



Ever since I moved to Western Washington in the 90's, I've heard about people going to Tofino- a coastal town on Vancouver Island, BC- to watch winter storms. The B&B's there advertise storm watching, with views of the beach. I bet it will be dramatic with this storm.


Tofino is great, you should totally go. Super great drive, just time the ferries right.
What is that on the lower screen feeding moisture into Baja?

That's the outflow from Invest 98E, already moving over marginal SSTs, so unlikely to develop much, perhaps getting to depression status.
Quoting 104. Greg01:



What is that on the lower screen feeding moisture into Baja?

I think it's 98E:


Quoting 107. barbamz:


Welcome. And no, I did nothing. It was just a link to the html loop from this site.

BTW, here is the streaming earthcam from Seattle. Still sunny.

How did you post an HTML loop here? I've never been able to get them to appear unless they're GIF. Is there a trick I don't know about for doing this?
Quoting 119. BayFog:


How did you post an HTML loop here? I've never been able to get them to appear unless they're GIF. Is there a trick I don't know about for doing this?

I didn't post the html loop itself. It was just a plain still pic which served as a link to the html loop.
WU "best" forecast for Saturday 7 am to 7pm at Tofino, B.C. - west side of Vancouver Island exposed to the Pacific - for now, looks like steady winds at 35-43 mph for that 12 hours. Hmmm.

Invest 99E, a disturbance south of Mexico with a better chance than 98E of becoming Seymour.
Quite a beauty. Nicole looks set to become the third major of the season soon - which would officially qualify 2016 as an "above normal" season by NOAA definition, and 2016 would become the first Atlantic season with more than 2 majors since 2011:

Link
1962 track is for post-tropical Freda. The similarity to the current forecast track for Songda is apparent.
Warning: Heaviest Rain in Years
By Vala Hafstað Nature & Travel October 11, 2016 16:59
The Icelandic Met Office issued a heavy rain warning this morning for South and West Iceland, which will be in effect through Thursday morning. Meteorologists now state that the rain will be the heaviest to hit us in years. The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management is on alert status. ...

Floods in South Iceland
By Vala Hafstað Nature & Travel about 7 hours agoUpdated: October 12, 2016 14:20



Guess these are the latest doings of Ex-Matthew ...


127. OKsky
Quoting 109. StormHype:



Bill Nye is your authoritive reference for future ice age predictions? LMAO I'm pointing to facts historic climate anomalies (long by man's self aware gauge of time 200 years) and you are putting more weight on a hollywood TV actor's own prognostications as being 100% certain outcomes. (This discussion is outside of man's ability or will to affect anything.)


Your science-fu is weak. Now go ahead and jump to some other wack-a-mole excuse for why you deny AGW ...and I will let someone else smash that one.

223 mph jet max over the North Pacific by Saturday as the extratropical remnant of Songda approaches the West Coast.
Quoting 103. earthisanocean:



humans also have a habit of naively thinking their actions are separated from earth's changes. read up on some basic physics of heat transfer, carbon dioxide emissions etc. and remember that we are just a blip on the timeline of earth, but the biggest blip the earth has ever seen (in terms of our affect on earth, it's systems, and the other species who live here too.)

why is that article relevant? i guarantee you any kind of large scale cooling (except in areas with influxes of cold, melting, freshwater) or any kind of ice age, is not happening anytime in the near future. bill nye recently said, we'll never have ice ages again. i can find the link if you want.
It was all good until you invoked Bill Nye the Science Guy. You simply must do better than a that. Please.
130. OKsky
Quoting 129. JNFlori30A:

It was all good until you invoked Bill Nye the Science Guy. You simply must do better than a that. Please.


Yeah, I love Bill Nye, but its better to use his sources rather than use him as one.
Looks like Nicole might make a run at cat 4 status:



Recon should be there in about an hour or so.
Jeez looks like a direct hit on Bermuda.

Quoting 77. Patrap:

There is nothing normal nor the norm about Earth Atmo 2.0.


We have never had this much latent heat and global water vapor today, compared to the last 800,000 years.








word
Quoting 102. BayFog:


Nose of energetic Pacific jet has reached the coast at about Cape Mendocino, carrying underneath it the moisture plume fed by Typhoon Songda. The Typhoon has reached the latitude of San Francisco and is about to reach the axis of the jet at 40N. It should accelerate eastward at that point as it undergoes extratropical transition, becoming a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone. The surface wind field should then also expand.
This should go a long ways toward dispersing some of that pesky Fukushima radiation

Quoting 129. JNFlori30A:

It was all good until you invoked Bill Nye the Science Guy. You simply must do better than a that. Please.


why do people hate bill nye? i only invoked him because he was answering a question on whether or not we would continue to have ice ages in the future, and he said no! given all we know about global climate change, and stored heat, etc. he's probably not wrong. of course its a long term prediction that only time will tell the answer to, and i have no problem trusting/listening/using him as a legitimate scientific source. he's the mouth piece for all the scientists doing actual research across various platforms. and he's using his platform to share information, and seemingly nothing more.
Quoting 130. OKsky:



Yeah, I love Bill Nye, but its better to use his sources rather than use him as one.


duly noted. first hand sources are better, no question.
Developing that stadium effect.



Check out the floodwaters left behind from Hurricane Matthew on MODIS:



Here we go!
Quoting 136. earthisanocean:



why do people hate bill nye? i only invoked him because he was answering a question on whether or not we would continue to have ice ages in the future, and he said no! given all we know about global climate change, and stored heat, etc. he's probably not wrong. of course its a long term prediction that only time will tell the answer to, and i have no problem trusting/listening/using him as a legitimate scientific source. he's the mouth piece for all the scientists doing actual research across various platforms. and he's using his platform to share information, and seemingly nothing more.

i take your point though about first hand resources, especially when countering someone. duly noted.
No hate for Bill Nye. He just strikes me as a more comedic Al Gore which in my perspective is entertaining but not as serious. I'd rather spend time reading the research that he is providing his commentary on. Peace!
Bill Nye the science guy was right about ice ages, but why? Iceland, Washington, and other northern locations have nonhuman-induced volcanoes, why? Maybe our 'Nye guys' missed a thermostat or two.
Quoting 125. Grothar:



Even if eye passes to East of Bermuda the west phases of Nicole look worse than the east, less the forward wind speed enhancement. sure looks like more rain on that side regardless.
Quoting 135. JNFlori30A:

This should go a long ways toward dispersing some of that pesky Fukushima radiation



Which reminds me: about a week after the Fukushima reactors started spewing, we had a very peculiar hailstorm in the SF Bay Area, after which, I noticed all the foliage had little brown spots. Now maybe those were mechanical damage from 1/2 hailstones (very unuusal around here where normal hail is 1/4 at most), but I wondered whether it was literal fallout...hail with radioactive dust particle cores, and whether the storm itself was somehow affected by a flux of radiation upstream.
Quoting 142. dhouyt:

Bill Nye the science guy was right about ice ages, but why? Iceland, Washington, and other northern locations have nonhuman-induced volcanoes, why? Maybe our 'Nye guys' missed a thermostat or two.


Are you suggesting that a) there are human-induced volcanoes somewhere? and b) that volcanoes are responsible for "no more iceages"? If so, how? by heating the atmosphere? Volcanoes tend to cool the earth by ejecting aerosols into the atmosphere, however, that generally only occurs with low latitude volcanoes (e.g. Tambora and Krakatoa) as opposed to mid to high latitude volcanoes (e.g. Mt. St. Helens). Did I misinterpret your statement?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
Quoting 103. earthisanocean:



humans also have a habit of naively thinking their actions are separated from earth's changes. read up on some basic physics of heat transfer, carbon dioxide emissions etc. and remember that we are just a blip on the timeline of earth, but the biggest blip the earth has ever seen (in terms of our affect on earth, it's systems, and the other species who live here too.)

why is that article relevant? i guarantee you any kind of large scale cooling (except in areas with influxes of cold, melting, freshwater) or any kind of ice age, is not happening anytime in the near future. bill nye recently said, we'll never have ice ages again. i can find the link if you want.




Bill Nye is your authoritive reference for future ice age predictions? LMAO I'm pointing to facts historic climate anomalies (long by man's self aware gauge of time 200 years) and you are putting more weight on a hollywood TV actor's own prognostications as being 100% certain outcomes. (This discussion is outside of man's ability or will to affect anything.)
Quoting 127. OKsky:



Your science-fu is weak. Now go ahead and jump to some other wack-a-mole excuse for why you deny AGW ...and I will let someone else smash that one.


Where did I deny climate change? There is nothing in my text saying that. You've smashed nothing but your own un-attentive self on the forehead.
18z GFS SW Carib storm genesis moved up alot..further north too
150. SLU
...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...

14-6-3
151. vis0

Quoting 96. StormHype:



The only constant is change. Best way to cope is to embrace and/or adapt to what you cannot change.
Nature allows for adaptation through mutation AT A NATURAL RATE

 At the speed/rate Earth is presently warming the adaptation TO ME that fits the scenario is for Nature to eliminate or try to eliminate Humans.  How can Nature pick n choose if i say nature is centered around unconditional love? Remember unconditional love means not adding ones "emotions/experiences/ego to equation for the final outcome. Hence nature is science at its purest, hydrogen does not say huh i'm noting going to dance with THAT helium cause THAT helium if from THAT OTHER neighborhood.        

 Element interactions are based on science not the 3 aforementioned "e" 's.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Before of after StormHype's comment above i also read that StormHype thinks "medias" hypes ONLY the GW side.
Media hypes almost everything as ratings is a business.  Like  certain stations that hype "nothing is happening s to Earth changing due to Gw/aGW" even when at least a couple of their
employees has gone through 3   "1 in 300"  year weather extremes in 2 years and even with the so called "hyping" many media outlets joined the call for cleaning
Earth a bit late (though better late than never) . The call began in the 1960 (1950's but there was a certain witch-hunt/black listing thing going on in Washington, DC so the environment
took a back seat...in an abandoned car ... in an abandoned junk yard)
 


BUT
 


Nature does not hype.

1] People that
are suffering through 1 in 500 year weather extremes every 2 or 3 years, are
they hyping when they ask for help 'cause they are
stuck on a roof with 3
feet of polluted water all around their neighborhood. (THIS EXAMPLE CAN BE
BROKEN INTO AT LEAST 7 as in snow, drought, rain,
Hurricanes, Tornadoes,
sudden changes, changes in local climate trends (as tropical weather heading
towards polar areas), varmint migrations etc.

2] The animals that
have to move towards areas where humans live do not
hype as they look for
food since either their food is drying up or under water.

3] The
rate at which gases that lead to greenhouse affects are rising is not hyped,
measurements are taken and those measurements are
adjusted to make sure they
all are fall on the same accurate scale.

4] The cost of cleaning
neighborhoods being under-Hyped as money will never buy those irreplaceable
things,
particularly the fell of being secure. (THIS ALSO HAS MANY SUB
CATEGORIES as cleaning drinking water, cleaning fracking, cleaning underground
oil from broken
storage tanks of old factories, cleaning what floods left
behind.


Again, when skeptics post the list of how much humanity has
saved by doing little or nothing to keep Earth GOOD (as in Healthy) as compared
to what a
warming/polluted planet has cost you, me the uh world then you can
hype that its better to do nothing and pass the buck than do
something and
help future generations in lowering their bills.

Just like you (we)
winterized or use energy efficient ceiling fans to keep your (our) "home" at a
healthier temperature level when it becomes too
hot or too cold too fast
outside why not help keep your true Home at a healthier temperature level in not
letting it become too hot too fast?

Sincerely ,

tall dark and
handsome
and???/or
shapely (to ones taste) LotionSoft and
luvly

Not sure of the readers preferences so i hyped both versions., hey
its the webnet.


apology for the use of my big "but" to the member out
there whose eyes bleed when i "shout", at times its necessary....to fah-lawnt
the text.