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Flooding from Matthew Continues over Carolinas; Nicole Eyes Bermuda

By: Bob Henson 6:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2016

Under brilliant blue skies, the water-logged Inner Coastal Plain of North Carolina continued to grapple on Monday with the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew and the extreme rains it deposited on the region. At least 10 deaths have been reported across the state, according to weather.com. Some 1500 people in the town of Lumberton had to evacuate their homes early Monday (some fleeing to rooftops) after a levee in the southwest part of the town was breached overnight. At least 500 structures have already been affected by flooding in Lumberton as of Monday morning, said NC Governor Pat McCrory in a news conference. Update: It now appears there may have been no major levee beach near Lumberton--simply a massive amount of water finding alternate channels, according to an excellent Capital Weather Gang report on the flood by Angela Fritz and Chico Harlan.


Figure 1. Freda Pittman holds Mark Bergstresser's hand as Bergstresser ferries her from her flooded neighborhood to waiting friends on State Highway 211 in Lumberton, NC, on Sunday, October 9, 2016. Image credit: Chuck Liddy/The Charlotte Observer via AP.

Torrential rains pushed well inland on Saturday as Hurricane Matthew churned along the SC/NC coast before heading seaward late Saturday. See our Sunday post for a recap of some of the rainfall records and storm impacts produced by Matthew across the Southeast. Matthew dropped a total of 14.87” in Fayetteville, NC, with 14.00” of that falling on Saturday--more than doubling the city’s previous all-time calendar-day record of 6.80” observed during Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. In fact, there are only four entire months in Fayetteville weather history that have received more rain than Fayetteville picked up in 24 hours on Saturday! Fayetteville records extend back to 1871. The rains were fed by extremely high amounts of atmospheric moisture brought into the region by Matthew. Increased atmospheric moisture is a hallmark of our ongoing planet-wide warming, as detailed by a number of studies. See this Climate Signals summary and this study published in July in the Journal of Climate.

A week of flooding ahead
It will take days for some rivers in North Carolina to crest, and many thousands of people will continue to be affected by flooding in or near their neighborhoods. Overall, the flooding is the state’s worst since the catastrophic Hurricane Floyd in September 1999, and some areas are being hit even harder than they were in Floyd (or any other storm on record). Below are several of the peak crests in North Carolina observed and/or projected by NOAA’s Southeast River Forecast Center as of Monday morning:

Black River near Tomahawk
27.37’ observed on Monday; still rising
Old record: 27.1’ on Sept. 18, 1999

Neuse River at Smithfield
29.09’ observed on Monday
Old record: 27.4’ on September 8, 1996

Little River at Manchester
31.73’ observed on Monday; projected peak 31.8’ later Monday
Old record: 29.0’ on Sept. 19, 1945

Cape Fear River at W.O. Huske Lock
68.4’ observed on Monday
2nd highest crest on record, behind 75.5’ on Sept. 22, 1945


Figure 2. The Lumber River is experiencing record flooding, exacerbated on Monday by a levee breach within the city of Lumberton. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Matthew’s toll: huge and still rising
The latest reports confirm that Matthew has been one of the most deadly and destructive Atlantic hurricanes of the 21st century. Early estimates suggested that insured losses for U.S. homes and business could be in the ballpark of $6 billion. However, these estimates have generally focused on damage inflicted by storm surge and wind, rather than on the potentially huge cost of inland flooding that is still unfolding. A roughly comparable storm, Hurricane Floyd in 1999, produced about $9.5 billion in U.S. economic damage. “I’d say that is a fair starting point for Matthew, given the expansive nature of the coastal inundation impacts from Florida to North Carolina and then the ongoing inland flooding across the Carolinas and southeast Virginia,” Steve Bowen (Aon Benfield) told me. Bowen also notes that the growing population across the Southeast U.S. leads to ever-greater exposure to financial loss when hurricanes do arrive.

Meanwhile, the Bahamas’ Tribune242 news service reported on Monday that Matthew will likely produce the largest insured losses from a single hurricane in the nation’s history. According to the international disaster database, EM-DAT, the two most expensive hurricanes in Bahamian history were Hurricane Frances of 2004 ($1 billion in losses) and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 ($550 million in damage). The chief executive of the insurance firm Bahamas First told Tribune242 that he expects the total payout from Bahama insurance companies to exceed that from Frances and Jeanne combined.

At least 23 deaths in the U.S. have been attributed to Matthew, but the most tragic blow has been to Haiti, where the death toll is now estimated at more than 1000 (the official toll was still at 372 on Monday morning). Tens of thousands of homes were destroyed, and recovery efforts will be hobbled by the nation’s ongoing cholera epidemic. At the bottom of this post is more detail on ways you can help those affected by Hurricane Matthew in Haiti and elsewhere.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole as of 1515Z (11:15 am EDT) Monday, October 10, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Nicole a significant concern for Bermuda
Tropical Storm Nicole, barely noticed during Matthew’s tenure, is now shaping up to be a hurricane threat in its own right. A Category 2 hurricane on Friday, Nicole weakened to minimal tropical storm status over the weekend amid dry air and strong wind shear. Nicole’s top sustained winds were 60 mph as of the 11 am EDT advisory from NHC. Nicole was located about 455 miles south of Bermuda and was heading north at 6 mph after moving little for much of the weekend. On Monday morning, Nicole had only a modest amount of showers and thunderstorms (convection) around its center, with the influence of dry air evident in the patchiness of banding around Nicole.

It appears Nicole will have a one- or two-day window for significant strengthening just before it approaches Bermuda on Thursday. Wind shear will plummet from its current 20 - 30 knots to around 5 - 10 knots by midweek. Mid-level relative humidity should be in the 50 - 60% range, up from the 40 - 50% range that prevailed over much of the weekend. As these conditions evolve, Nicole will be rolling over near-record-warm waters of the subtropical North Atlantic, with sea-surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), roughly 1 - 2°C above average. Record warm waters in this region helped boost Hurricane Gaston to Category 3 strength at latitude 30°N in late August. The 00Z Monday runs of our top three track models--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--all bring Nicole over or very close to Bermuda on Thursday, with the European and UKMET models suggesting Nicole could be at least a Category 2 storm at that point. The 06Z Monday run of our top intensity model, the HWRF, agrees. The official NHC forecast as of 11 am EDT Monday bring Nicole across Bermuda as a strong Category 1 hurricane on Thursday. Regardless of its peak strength near the island, Nicole looks set to be a very large system, especially as it evolves into a post-tropical cyclone toward the weekend.


Figure 4. A girl carries water in Port-Salut, southwest of Port-au-Prince, in Haiti, on October 9, 2016, following the passage of Hurricane Matthew. Haiti began three days of mourning on Sunday for hundreds killed in Hurricane Matthew as relief officials grappled with the unfolding devastation in the Caribbean country's hard-hit south. Image credit: Rodrigo Arangua/AFP/Getty Images.

Portlight and Lambi Fund of Haiti disaster relief charities need your help
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to Hurricane Matthew. Portlight has been working with their partners and stakeholder organizations throughout the affected region to ensure the needs of people with disabilities are well met. It's important to note this includes people in directly impacted areas as well as the tens of thousands of evacuees. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

The Lambi Fund of Haiti is very active in disaster relief and disaster prevention, including promotion of reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters. What Lambi Fund is doing for their Hurricane Matthew response:
    •    Utilizing Regional Monitors and the active Partner Organizations (22 projects in portfolio) to survey the immediate needs in the South and Northwest in order to provide a primary response to these urgent needs
    •    Providing $150,000 for urgent relief during the first phase of their response while completing a needs assessment of the resources needed for the second phase, which will be to “Repair and Restore” the 22 active organizations’ projects that have been devastated
  •    Support the process of repairing the infrastructure damages (already established: 4 mills down in the Northwest, need to repair gardens, supply soil and nutrients essentially starting gardens over from scratch)

You can make your donation online at http://www.lambifund.org or send your funding support to: 

Lambi Fund of Haiti
1050 Connecticut Avenue, Suite 500
Washington DC 20036

Jeff Masters will be back with our next post on Tuesday.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments





Oh, pilot of the storm who leaves no trace
Like thought's inside a dream
Leave the path that led me to that place
Yellow desert stream
Like Shangri-la beneath the summer moon
I will return again
Sure as the dust that floats high in June
Whenmoving through Kashmir....

Oh, father of the four winds fill my sails
Cross the sea of years
With no provision but an open face
Along the straits of fear
Oh, when I want, when I'm on my way, yeah
And my feet wear my fickle way to stay....
Thanks Mr. Henson... Nuese River nearly 2 feet over the old record..Thats is a lot of water.
"Regardless of its peak strength near the island, Bermuda looks set to be a very large system, especially as it evolves into a post-tropical cyclone toward the weekend."

As posted above, I think "Bermuda" should be replaced with "Nicole". :) It's been a long blustery weekend.
From last blog:

CPC updated their weekly outlook and say the July-September average/ONI is now at -0.5 - Link

So we're likely in a weak La Nina state now.
Quoting 3. sharqi:

"Regardless of its peak strength near the island, Bermuda looks set to be a very large system, especially as it evolves into a post-tropical cyclone toward the weekend."

As posted above, I think "Bermuda" should be replaced with "Nicole". :) It's been a long blustery weekend.


It has indeed! Fixed now--thanks for the catch.
Quoting previous blog 243. Patrap:

Be thankful that major Matt stayed just offshore of Florida.

Next time it may not be a obligue angle Impact.





Tropical cyclones indeed have many types of tracks. The following doom scenario is based on the track and intensity of Cyclone Zoe. Track is mirrored to account for different hemisphere. Relative rate of weakening near shore and onshore is close to how Wilma weakened near/over Yucatan Peninsula.

BTW
"Cape Canaveral, Florida: 107 mph (on an elevated tower at 54 feet above the ground)"
Source TWC.

But I was reading on a Space Center site that there was actually a 132 mph gust during Matthew out on the Cape on a tower at an elevation of 492 ft (near 500 ft ).
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

BTW
"Cape Canaveral, Florida: 107 mph (on an elevated tower at 54 feet above the ground)
Source TWC.

But I was reading on a Space Center site that there was actually a 132 mph gust during Matthew on a tower at an elevation of 492 ft (near 500 ft ).


Local mets in Orlando mentioned the same thing right after it happened. Said the tower that recorded that wind gust was near the Vehicle Assembly Building at KSC.
Quoting 8. PacketHauler:



Local mets in Orlando mentioned the same thing right after it happened. Said the tower that recorded that wind gust was near the Vehicle Assembly Building at KSC.


That 132-mph gust (see reference) makes sense at a 492-foot elevation, given how Matthew's winds had a hard time mixing to near-ground level. The 54-foot height where the 107-mph gust was recorded is much closer to the standard anemometer height of 10 meters [about 33 feet], so I'm more inclined to lump it in with other ground-based estimates.
Watch the NW Caribbean in about 10 days. Euro showing lower pressures over the area, and the GFS ensembles are also hinting at something.


It's quite interesting how variable the weather can be! Just a few days ago, all weather forecasters were saying how Nicole would dissipate in a few days at most, and here we are, it's already peaked at Cat. 2, and will soon reintensify!
Outlook for the rest of the season? Any probabilities on a south florida landfall? Just wondering so I can be prepared!
Upper 50s this morning in SE TX, some places even cooler
Quoting 9. BobHenson:



That 132-mph gust (see reference) makes sense at a 492-foot elevation, given how Matthew's winds had a hard time mixing to near-ground level. The 54-foot height where the 107-mph gust was recorded is much closer to the standard anemometer height of 10 meters [about 33 feet], so I'm more inclined to lump it in with other ground-based estimates.


Yeah, that 132 mph wind reading at 492 ft. is confirmation of how strong the storm really was. 492 ft. is still relatively close to the ground when looking at the big picture.
Just imagine Matthew making landfall in Miami where they have 40 buildings 492 ft. high or higher, (with two over 700 ft.). That could have been disastrous.
List of sky scraper buildings in Miami
Link
Wind shear is falling quickly around Nicole:



Should be low by tonight and stay that way for the next couple of days. Main issue at the moment is that SSTs are a little cooler - near 27C, due to upwelling from Nicole's slow drifting.



As Nicole moves further north tonight onwards, she should move back over SSTs of 28-29C.

Quoting 11. VAbeachhurricanes:

Watch the NW Caribbean in about 10 days. Euro showing lower pressures over the area, and the GFS ensembles are also hinting at something.





It is that time of year. We may see one or two more.
Quoting 10. drg0dOwnCountry:

Potential abrupt cataclysmic change and the Atlantic

Thanks for that. I watched it. Very interesting.
Not really surprising:
Launch of GOES-R likely delayed by Hurricane Matthew
Jason Rhian, October 10th, 2016
Quoting 9. BobHenson:



That 132-mph gust (see reference) makes sense at a 492-foot elevation, given how Matthew's winds had a hard time mixing to near-ground level. The 54-foot height where the 107-mph gust was recorded is much closer to the standard anemometer height of 10 meters [about 33 feet], so I'm more inclined to lump it in with other ground-based estimates.

Center Director put out there today in e-mail that at Pad B there was 115kt winds (132mph) 100ft off the ground & 75kt (86mph) surface winds.

Things are return to normal at KSC now. There was significant damage to Launch Complex 39 area, most other work areas weren't so affected.
Well now that things in the atmosphere have calmed down a bit, I'd like to say a big thank you to the blog writers and all the contributors who have shed new and interesting lights on hurricanes and their effects to all of us who never experience them.
Hoping that everybody came though it all with the least or minimum of damage and that the knowledge shared contributes to a safer and more cautious future when the next storm comes over you.


Quoting 17. Bucsboltsfan:



It is that time of year. We may see one or two more.


If we have 2 more, that could help match my pre-season prediction in April of 16-8-3
I'd like to make this official, that this season was not a bust!
Quoting 24. yankees440:

I'd like to make this official, that this season was not a bust!


Still haven't had our cat 5 wipe Miami off the face of the planet with 35 foot storm surge and 200 tornadoes...

/sarcasm
Quoting 24. yankees440:

I'd like to make this official, that this season was not a bust!

Agreed after seeing 2013,2014,2015 this was clearly not a bust.It behaved fairly well.
Quoting 25. Astrometeor:



Still haven't had our cat 5 wipe Miami off the face of the planet with 35 foot storm surge and 200 tornadoes...

/sarcasm

"Patience is a virtue!"

As Carl Sagan once said. "Anything which is possible, given a infinite amount of time; is inevitable!"
Hmmm...interesting. I don't think the AHS is finish yet. Models are showing anywhere from a tropical storm developing in the Western Caribbean in the 7-10 day period or at the very least lowering pressures down there something to keep an eye on as we approach the secondary peak.





Out of respect to those in harms way I waited to make a comment. So much political bs in many of the post. Chicken littles, please stay off the blog and let those with the experience provide us with their analysis of the situation. At some point you are going to have to realize that the sky is not falling and your Emperor has no clothes.
Quoting 9. BobHenson:



That 132-mph gust (see reference) makes sense at a 492-foot elevation, given how Matthew's winds had a hard time mixing to near-ground level. The 54-foot height where the 107-mph gust was recorded is much closer to the standard anemometer height of 10 meters [about 33 feet], so I'm more inclined to lump it in with other ground-based estimates.



Seeing as you are speaking about the winds @ KSC......on a degree scale of 0 to 90.....how much more of an inclination might you be referring to (insider launch angle joke.....as in 'orbital inclination) ;-]


BTW Masters & Henson......good forecasting on Matthew.....& in general.

Anybody who says you guys blew it are a bunch of snowflakes who couldn't dead-reckon their way out of a cul-de-sac !!
Quoting 29. LMFAOmanmadeGW:

Out of respect to those in harms way I waited to make a comment. So much political bs in many of the post. Chicken littles, please stay off the blog and let those with the experience provide us with their analysis of the situation. At some point you are going to have to realize that the sky is not falling and your Emperor has no clothes.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion. But I have to say that tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts disagree with you. So does every major scientific organization on the planet. So do mountains of evidence based on observations made around the world over the course of many decades--rising global temperatures, disappearing ice caps and glaciers, increasingly profound hot spells, deeper and more prolonged droughts, desertification, heavier precipitation, more frequent and severe flooding, shortened winters, longer summers, an increasingly lopsided ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records, rising sea levels, rapid forced species migrations, and so on. So do tens of thousands of objective peer-reviewed studies on the issue over the years. And, of course, so do the very laws of physics themselves.

The bottom line is this: we humans are pumping more than 4,000,000 metric tons of excess, long-lived, heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day, and will continue doing so well into the future. So anyone wishing to state a point-of-view opposite to that which scientists have discovered can certainly do so. But they should realize and admit their point-of-view is not one based on curiosity, scientific inquiry, and intellectual honesty, but is instead resting upon simple ideology, denial, and wishful thinking.

But thanks for expressing your opinion.
Quoting 10. drg0dOwnCountry:

Potential abrupt cataclysmic change and the Atlantic


Very interesting!

The gulf stream shifting westward and running up the US coastline would be very bad news in the future. As well as aiding sea level rise, it'd help tropical cyclones maintain strength or even strengthen that far north!
And onto the next. It feels like it's been a while since we've had a slow cooking storm that starts out in the Caribbean. Will be interesting to watch how things unfold in the long range.
Matthew was a very odd storm here. I live in Florence,SC (about 130 miles north of Savannah) but am currently in Savannah, GA. I'm still a little ways from the coast, but Savannah was positioned much closer to the COC. Surprisingly, Florence has the same or greater wind damage than what I've seen so far around Savannah. Florence got belted by winds on the backside and I'm wondering if the front interaction led to more winds being able to mix down to the surface.

Lumberton is 40 miles to my northeast and my heart goes out to the affected. I think Matthew will be a $10B dollar US disaster mainly due to the size of the area affected and the heavy rains over interior SC/NC. It could have been worse for US interests but for many it has been bad enough.
These fellas managed to be out on Cocoa Beach as Matthew was offshore Friday evening.......good storm vid......w/ hurricane force gusts in there

Link
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. But I have to say that tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts disagree with you. So does every major scientific organization on the planet. So do mountains of evidence based on observations made around the world over the course of many decades--rising global temperatures, disappearing ice caps and glaciers, increasingly profound hot spells, deeper and more prolonged droughts, desertification, heavier precipitation, more frequent and severe flooding, shortened winters, longer summers, an increasingly lopsided ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records, rising sea levels, rapid forced species migrations, and so on. So do tens of thousands of objective peer-reviewed studies on the issue over the years. And, of course, so do the very laws of physics themselves.

The bottom line is this: we humans are pumping more than 4,000,000 metric tons of excess, long-lived, heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day, and will continue doing so well into the future. So anyone wishing to state a point-of-view opposite to that which scientists have discovered can certainly do so. But they should realize and admit their point-of-view is not one based on curiosity, scientific inquiry, and intellectual honesty, but is instead resting upon simple ideology, denial, and wishful thinking.

But thanks for expressing your opinion.


I chose the wunderrground T-shirt for my parting gift.

😁😯✌
Nicole

Quoting 11. VAbeachhurricanes:

Watch the NW Caribbean in about 10 days. Euro showing lower pressures over the area, and the GFS ensembles are also hinting at something.



Bad set up too, would bring whatever may be there in to gulf.
Just love Weather Underground and this blog, many thanks Dr.Jeff.
Quoting 39. hydrus:

Bad set up too, would bring whatever may be there in to gulf.

Wouldn't climatology put it towards FLORIDA?
Neapolitan

And I assume that you will tell me that the dinosaurus caused their demise because of the Greenhouse gasses that they released from their rectums.

Has this planet ever had a climate that did not fluctuate between heating and cooling. If the scientists cannot effectively predict direcion and strength of a hurricane 2 days out, then how is it that they can predict climate change 30 years out? You don't really expect me to believe that do you? I got hit Hurricane Andrew and Charlie. In both cases up to the last minute the predictions were wrong! Don't you think that there is an economic interest by many scientists in maintaining the belief in global warming? If it was really based on scientific fact, then everyone would be in agreement.
Wow! Nicole is beginning to form an eyewall! Its going to have a huge eye! Will be pretty fun to look a when it forms it's eye!

Quoting 41. nygiants:


Wouldn't climatology put it towards FLORIDA?


Yes and no. A common track is NE through Cuba, The Bahamas and ots. Gotta go somewhere though.
Update to the AMBER ALERT from SATURDAY

UPDATE: Monday, October 10, 2016: The Tennessee Bureau of Investigations is reporting that 4-year-old Rebecca Lewis of Lakeland has been found safe in Memphis, Tennessee and “West Hogs” is in custody. The multiple Amber Alerts have been cancelled.
Monday, October 10th - 10:00 am update:
Hogs and Rebecca were spotted at 2:28 am this morning at Dailys Convenience store (and gas station—Shell), 1277 Antioch Pike, in Nashville. (10-10-16.) When additional details become availab...
Continue Reading

just wanted to let everyone know that saw this the other night ....
Post #42 - get ready....
Quoting 44. Bucsboltsfan:



Yes and no. A common track is NE through Cuba, The Bahamas and ots. Gotta go somewhere though.

Wilma maybe, or Irene of 1999.
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. But I have to say that tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts disagree with you. So does every major scientific organization on the planet. So do mountains of evidence based on observations made around the world over the course of many decades--rising global temperatures, disappearing ice caps and glaciers, increasingly profound hot spells, deeper and more prolonged droughts, desertification, heavier precipitation, more frequent and severe flooding, shortened winters, longer summers, an increasingly lopsided ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records, rising sea levels, rapid forced species migrations, and so on. So do tens of thousands of objective peer-reviewed studies on the issue over the years. And, of course, so do the very laws of physics themselves.

The bottom line is this: we humans are pumping more than 4,000,000 metric tons of excess, long-lived, heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day, and will continue doing so well into the future. So anyone wishing to state a point-of-view opposite to that which scientists have discovered can certainly do so. But they should realize and admit their point-of-view is not one based on curiosity, scientific inquiry, and intellectual honesty, but is instead resting upon simple ideology, denial, and wishful thinking.

But thanks for expressing your opinion.
And where do these tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts come from? They do research and work for institutions who get their funding from federal government grants. So why would they want to bite the "hands that feed them"? And for every one of the groups mentioned above, there are tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts who can dispute these claims. Okay, maybe not that many, but there are plenty who ARE brave enough to "bite the hand" that feeds them. I wish I had the time to list some of them, but if you would open your mind, the information is easy to find. Thank you for allowing me to voice my opinion, but I'm sure I will be put on peoples ignore list, blackballed, or be called a troll, even though I've been lurking on this site since 2005. Let the bashing begin.
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. But I have to say that tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts disagree with you. So does every major scientific organization on the planet. So do mountains of evidence based on observations made around the world over the course of many decades--rising global temperatures, disappearing ice caps and glaciers, increasingly profound hot spells, deeper and more prolonged droughts, desertification, heavier precipitation, more frequent and severe flooding, shortened winters, longer summers, an increasingly lopsided ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records, rising sea levels, rapid forced species migrations, and so on. So do tens of thousands of objective peer-reviewed studies on the issue over the years. And, of course, so do the very laws of physics themselves.

The bottom line is this: we humans are pumping more than 4,000,000 metric tons of excess, long-lived, heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere every single hour of every single day, and will continue doing so well into the future. So anyone wishing to state a point-of-view opposite to that which scientists have discovered can certainly do so. But they should realize and admit their point-of-view is not one based on curiosity, scientific inquiry, and intellectual honesty, but is instead resting upon simple ideology, denial, and wishful thinking.

But thanks for expressing your opinion.
Big YAWN!
50. IDTH
M.N.O

Matthew, Nicole and Otto

Matthew was a significant storm, Nicole looks like it will affect Bermuda and future Otto is being hinted at in the Caribbean.

2 significant letters, a 3rd being hinted at.
Quoting 42. LMFAOmanmadeGW:

Neapolitan

And I assume that you will tell me that the dinosaurus caused their demise because of the Greenhouse gasses that they released from their rectums.

Has this planet ever had a climate that did not fluctuate between heating and cooling. If the scientists cannot effectively predict direcion and strength of a hurricane 2 days out, then how is it that they can predict climate change 30 years out? You don't really expect me to believe that do you? I got hit Hurricane Andrew and Charlie. In both cases up to the last minute the predictions were wrong! Don't you think that there is an economic interest by many scientists in maintaining the belief in global warming? If it was really based on scientific fact, then everyone would be in agreement.

This
The gfs shows a tight clustering 306 hours.

At 324 hours, it seems to diverge, one in the north one in the south.

At 384, it diverges again.

The northern most one ends up going to ots after the bahamas and cuba.
The second northernmost one, seems to be travelling northwest, possibly a florida landfall. The other one, does not have enough evidence for me, but some other more experienced person maybe can?
Quoting 47. nygiants:


Wilma maybe, or Irene of 1999.


Ugh. Hopefully not either of those.
Matthew's SE US journey. Credit: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School


So, I guess the 84% of scientists whom believe that the climate is being changed due to humans don't matter. You know, the ones with actual science degrees that they didn't earn from reading fallible garbage on the internet.
Quoting 48. AllBoardedUp:

And where do these tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts come from? They do research and work for institutions who get their funding from federal government grants. So why would they want to bite the "hands that feed them"? And for every one of the groups mentioned above, there are tens of thousands of climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, and time series analysts who can dispute these claims. Okay, maybe not that many, but there are plenty who ARE brave enough to "bite the hand" that feeds them. I wish I had the time to list some of them, but if you would open your mind, the information is easy to find. Thank you for allowing me to voice my opinion, but I'm sure I will be put on peoples ignore list, blackballed, or be called a troll, even though I've been lurking on this site since 2005. Let the bashing begin.


I won't call you a troll, but if you want to play the money game, you might consider how much money oil and coal companies stand to lose if the planet moves rapidly and abruptly to green energy. The amount of grant money earned by scientists pales in comparison. So if you're going to argue that the debate is caused by greed and dishonesty over money, who has the greater incentive to lie about climate change? The scales tip very heavily in favor of the richest companies on the planet, I think.
Can we save the global warming/climate change conspiracy arguments for when the season's over or the blog post permits? I mean that's pretty much all this blog will turn into once the season ends so let us have a few more weeks of breathing space at least! lol
Quoting 55. SecretStormNerd:

So, I guess 84% of scientists whom believe that the climate is being changed do to humans don't matter. You know, the ones with actual science degrees that they didn't earn from reading fallible garbage on the internet.
So the 16% of scientists who have actual science degrees don't matter? Just because a majority agree with a certain philosophy doesn't make them correct. I'm sure 99 percent of the population during Sir Isaac Newton's time thought he was crazy and dismissed him as some kind of kook as well.
Quoting 52. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The gfs shows a tight clustering 306 hours.

At 324 hours, it seems to diverge, one in the north one in the south.

At 384, it diverges again.

The northern most one ends up going to ots after the bahamas and cuba.
The second northernmost one, seems to be travelling northwest, possibly a florida landfall. The other one, does not have enough evidence for me, but some other more experienced person maybe can?

Well 3/4 of the people that put up shutters in my neighborhood have yet to take them down. Maybe they know something lol
Quoting 59. SecretStormNerd:


Well 3/4 of the people that put up shutters in my neighborhood have yet to take them down. Maybe they know something lol

Illuminati confirmed!!! :)
Quoting 56. gunhilda:



I won't call you a troll, but if you want to play the money game, you might consider how much money oil and coal companies stand to lose if the planet moves rapidly and abruptly to green energy. The amount of grant money earned by scientists pales in comparison. So if you're going to argue that the debate is caused by greed and dishonesty over money, who has the greater incentive to lie about climate change? The scales tip very heavily in favor of the richest companies on the planet, I think.

You make a valid point, but I guarantee you the oil companies are already prepared for that day, if and when it comes, to make the swap over to green energy.
Quoting 58. AllBoardedUp:

So the 16% of scientists who have actual science degrees don't matter? Just because a majority agree with a certain philosophy doesn't make them correct. I'm sure 99 percent of the population during Sir Isaac Newton's time thought he was crazy and dismissed him as some kind of kook as well.

I am not saying they don't matter. Just stating that a large majority do believe.
Every time I see the scientific illiterate posting on here about how AGW is a vast conspiracy it makes me think of a fly trying its hardest to fly through a (closed) window.
Quoting 41. nygiants:


Wouldn't climatology put it towards FLORIDA?
Usually, but that set up wouldnt...Too far out to consider anyway..I just mentioned it in passing.


Me and a lot of people on this blog told people all it was going to take was one storm to have this season become very bad. Matthew was the perfect example. So lets chill on this season was a bust and lets focus on recovery for the east coast and the Caribbean.
Quoting 62. SecretStormNerd:


I am not saying they don't matter. Just stating that a large majority do believe.

I would not usually comment on this but
with all due respect it's pretty much "split"
right down the middle.... That's a 50/50 "split"
just saying

Taco :o)
Quoting 61. AllBoardedUp:

You make a valid point, but I guarantee you the oil companies are already prepared for that day, if and when it comes, to make the swap over to green energy.


You do realize that the oil companies have all "shorted" oil in the market... They are more than ready for the oil collapse.

Link

Link
(Just in case the image did not work)
Don't they look similar!
Quoting 59. SecretStormNerd:


Well 3/4 of the people that put up shutters in my neighborhood have yet to take them down. Maybe they know something lol


Laziness?
Quoting 66. taco2me61:


I would not usually comment on this but
with all due respect it's pretty much "split"
right down the middle.... That's a 50/50 "split"
just saying

Taco :o)
Sorry, taco, but that's just not true. The consensus (upwards of 97%) has been discussed here often enough. But here's the kicker for me: every time there's alleged research that climate change either isn't real or isn't man-caused, the alleged research is thoroughly discredited - and not by opinions, but by data and the laws of physics. So if you or anyone else is going to try to claim 50% of scientists disagree, you need to come up with some names and evidence, not just your opinion.
Random off topic (sort of) question alert!
If you take Cyclone Tracy from 1974, and blow it up to the approximate size of katrina, what would be the aproximate wind speeds? how about marco 2008?
Quoting 59. SecretStormNerd:


Well 3/4 of the people that put up shutters in my neighborhood have yet to take them down. Maybe they know something lol


how many still have Christmas lights up?
What do people do when they get fevers? Pretend it's a left wing conspiracy and that it's impossible that little, microscopic viruses or bacterium can set off such an increase of body temperature that effects great changes and consequences on the system as a whole?
Quoting 46. Bucsboltsfan:
Post #42 - get ready....
Really deep derp - such a high level of willful ignorance and a woeful unfamiliarity with science is not worth responding to...but someone may try.
Quoting 71. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Random off topic (sort of) question alert!
If you take Cyclone Tracy from 1974, and blow it up to the approximate size of katrina, what would be the aproximate wind speeds? how about marco 2008?


Changing the size of the storm does not necessarily mean the winds will also change. You can very well change the pressure of the storm, as large storms typically have lower pressures, but that doesn't equate into higher/lower winds.
Well after some major flooding with town areas, roads, creeks and streams reaching heights i've not ever seen before, and others say they havnt seen for probably half a century around here...the power remains off for many as evidenced by the lines still laying beside the road in places. Most all tree debris have been cleared. What a storm for inland NC...dont ever want to see that again.

But I see that you guys didnt miss a beat and picked up your crappy climate debate right where yal left off, so i'll return next time a big storm approaches and all that hallucinated mess isnt here. See ya later, boys n girls!
Quoting 72. BobinTampa:



how many still have Christmas lights up?


They are already up here, gotta have them all up by halloween or you are doing it in snow and potentially sub zero temps. I don't see too many up year 'round though. I know they are not allowed in my neighborhood all year 'round, lest you want to feel the wrath of the HOA...
Quoting 58. AllBoardedUp:

So the 16% of scientists who have actual science degrees don't matter? Just because a majority agree with a certain philosophy doesn't make them correct. I'm sure 99 percent of the population during Sir Isaac Newton's time thought he was crazy and dismissed him as some kind of kook as well.


Percentages one way or the other doesn't matter when it comes down to it. What matters is the science. And so far, no one has been able to prove that AGW is not happening and that CO2 is not to blame.
Quoting 61. AllBoardedUp:

You make a valid point, but I guarantee you the oil companies are already prepared for that day, if and when it comes, to make the swap over to green energy.

That's an interesting take on it, AllBoardedUp, and thank you for acknowledging the validity of my point.

This probably won't mean anything to you since you don't know me, but I'm going to try to put a face on these dishonest, greedy scientists who believe in climate change.

My 91-year old mother is one of them. Mom earned her doctorate at Cornell back when there weren't a lot of women getting doctorates in science. For years she taught an environmental science course at a respected state university. I grew up with climate change, long before it became the combative issue that it is today. And I can tell you that my mom never made a penny pushing climate change science. She was a lecturer, not a research scientist. Biology was her main focus. But she understands the relatively simple physics and chemistry behind the science of greenhouse gases. (You know, it's funny how no one questioned that science when it was used to explain why Venus is as hot as it is. Venus is a broiler because of greenhouse gases. The same physics that applies to Venus applies to Earth, too. Google "Venus runaway greenhouse effect," if you're curious.)

I admit that it makes me angry when people, including you, indirectly accuse my mom of lying to get grant money, or whatever it is you believe is motivating her and all these other scientists who believe in climate change. My mom is still very passionate about this issue, and she despairs for our future. But I promise you she isn't motivated by money. She's motivated by concern for her grandchildren and the problems she knows they'll be facing.

Believe it or not, it's true.

But if you wonder why some of us get very passionate in our debates on this issue: for me, it's personal. Very personal. Because you and others routinely call my mom a fraud, a cheat, and a liar when really, she only wants what is best for humanity and planet based on her understanding of the science.
Quoting 72. BobinTampa:



how many still have Christmas lights up?

HAHA none.
Quoting 41. nygiants:


Wouldn't climatology put it towards FLORIDA?


Here's some good reading for october previews Link Florida use to get hit often.
.
Quoting 79. Astrometeor:



Percentages one way or the other doesn't matter when it comes down to it. What matters is the science. And so far, no one has been able to prove that AGW is not happening and that CO2 is not to blame.
Greetings Astro...I am sending you WU mail..:)
thanks for sharing this, everyone needs to read it!

Quoting 80. gunhilda:


That's an interesting take on it, AllBoardedUp, and thank you for acknowledging the validity of my point.

This probably won't mean anything to you since you don't know me, but I'm going to try to put a face on these dishonest, greedy scientists who believe in climate change.

My 91-year old mother is one of them. Mom earned her doctorate at Cornell back when there weren't a lot of women getting doctorates in science. For years she taught an environmental science course at a respected state university. I grew up with climate change, long before it became the combative issue that it is today. And I can tell you that my mom never made a penny pushing climate change science. She was a lecturer, not a research scientist. Biology was her main focus. But she understands the relatively simple physics and chemistry behind the science of greenhouse gases. (You know, it's funny how no one questioned that science when it was used to explain why Venus is as hot as it is. Venus is a broiler because of greenhouse gases. The same physics that applies to Venus applies to Earth, too. Google "Venus runaway greenhouse effect," if you're curious.)

I admit that it makes me angry when people, including you, indirectly accuse my mom of lying to get grant money, or whatever it is you believe is motivating her and all these other scientists who believe in climate change. My mom is still very passionate about this issue, and she despairs for our future. But I promise you she isn't motivated by money. She's motivated by concern for her grandchildren and the problems she knows they'll be facing.

Believe it or not, it's true.

But if you wonder why some of us get very passionate in our debates on this issue: for me, it's personal. Very personal. Because you and others routinely call my mom a fraud, a cheat, and a liar when really, she only wants what is best for humanity and planet based on her understanding of the science.

Why are we talking about the validity of climate change here? I hate that I'm putting my thoughts of this topic on a meteorological blog but seriously end it at this. Climate change is not a theory, it is not a conspiracy and it is not formed by the liberal media, climate change is a fact that cannot and shouldn't be disputed. If you want to dispute climate change go gang up with the people that believe that vaccines give autism, both have no validity in reality.
halloween hurricane 2016 taking aim on sw florida. the way things going why not?
In more, um... current problems/situations, some big hot towers near the center of Nicole on the last visual before dark. Who knows, the way things are going this year, what with storm "persistence", it could be a Cat. 3 right over Bermuda.

Link

Jo
Quoting 22. pingon:





Correct me if I'm wrong but by my personal experience, Matthew got a HELL of a lot closer to the coast than this...

Just read this weather news release... Alaska may have a more normal winter. Although Northern Alaska is still supposed to be warmer than normal (arctic).

From ADN:

Warmth was helped along by the mass of persistently warm North Pacific water that appeared in late 2013 — the so-called "Blob." as coined by Wunderblogger Grothar. And the multiyear Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern was in a positive — or warm — phase last winter.
The basis for accepting AGW is fundamental physics. The argument from authority is used because so many people lack a basic understanding of the physics (greenhouse effect for example). Science is based on peer reviewed evidence accumulated over time, not by a count of hands. The same physics that has led to the technology many take for granted is the physics that predicts and measures changes in climate. It's veracity is based on direct observation and further supported by the use of this same physics to produce modern devices such as cell-phones and gps (among all the rest). It is epistemologically fallacious to try and narrowly reject AGW, yet have no trouble taking for granted the physics of any modern semiconductor device. They are both spring from the same fundamental physics.
Quoting 48. AllBoardedUp:

And where do these [scientists] come from? They do research and work for institutions who get their funding from federal government grants.

Some funding comes from government grants. But not all.
Even if there was some truth to your odd chain of hidden claims (science comes from grants, grants come from the government, the government "believes" in climate change due to humans, the government only gives grants to scientists who agree with the government), you must realize that we have had administrations before that were not-so-believing in climate science, right?

Quoting 48. AllBoardedUp:

And for every one of the groups mentioned above, there are tens of thousands of [scientists]who can dispute [the scientific consensus of climate change being mostly due to human activities] Okay, maybe not that many, but

So you literally undid your own claim with the following sentence.
And yes, you are right, there really are not that many. That's because the overwhelming (very very overwhelming) majority of active scientists working in the climate science field agree that human activities are directly responsible for at least a majority of the observed warming. You statement just isn't supportable.
Quoting 86. masiello3:

Why are we talking about the validity of climate change here? ... Climate change is not a theory, ...

Well, actually it is theory. But "theory" doesn't mean to the layperson what it means to the scientist.
Hi all!

Just checking in now that I am at work and have power. What a crazy experience these last few days have been!

I rode out Matthew at my inlaw's place in Rincon, GA- just west of I-95 from Savannah. We lost power about 2 AM Friday night and my wife woke me up. The next 2 hours were insane- trees crashing all around the house and the wind roaring. At one point we heard the infamous "train noise" but to us it sounded more like a jet engine. We huddled in the bathroom for 10 minutes until it went away. The next morning we inspected the back of the property and I am fairly sure we had a F0 tornado go through- trees were down and twisted in a straight line through 3 properties stretching at least a 1/2 mile, with a path of only about 50 yards wide.

There are trees down on every road in that area, as well as overflowing ditches and creeks still causing some flooding issues. Power came back on there at about 7 pm last night. This morning I made my way back into Savannah- some areas seemed to be getting back to normal while others will have a long road ahead. My dad's house in Ardsley Park was untouched, but the 2 houses next to him had trees down on them. There are giant 100 year old oaks uprooted in the Chatham Crescent area that actually ripped the sidewalks and parts of the street and storm drains up with them.

Finally I made it out to my home on Whitemarsh Island to a surreal scene- boats sitting out on top of the marsh and up on the banks where they came unmoored. Highway 80 had huge drifts of marsh wrack pushed to the side of the road along with piles of trash and logs that washed up in the surge. My home was amazingly undamaged, but many of my neighbors were unlucky and had trees on theirs. Also, several had flooded garages from surge water since the marsh was only a stones throw away. From the high water marks I estimate there was 2-3 feet of standing land inundation in my neighborhood.

From what I have seen and heard- Tybee and Hilton Head got hit much worse than the rest of the area. However, overall I think it could've been much worse. I do NOT regret evacuating, though. Seeing the power of the weak side of a Cat 1 gives me a whole new perspective on what a major would do to this area. Hopefully Georgia can go another 40 years or more without experiencing another hurricane.
The Central Atlantic wave is the one I think models are picking up on in a week to 10 days. Wind shear is high over the region right now, so development if any should be slow to occur. The GFS MJO prediction shows upward motion of the MJO sticking around the Western Atlantic until the end of the month. By the way good luck to those in Bermuda in the path of Nicole, hopefully she won't get too terribly strong.





Quoting 85. earthisanocean:

thanks for sharing this, everyone needs to read it!


and the link at comment # 10 that drg0dOwnCountry posted...The Greenland ice melt is throwing the AMOC out of whack, and displacing the Gulf Stream..There will be ramifications with that situation to be sure.
Quoting 76. Astrometeor:



Changing the size of the storm does not necessarily mean the winds will also change. You can very well change the pressure of the storm, as large storms typically have lower pressures, but that doesn't equate into higher/lower winds.

So taking a storm like tip and contract it to tracys size would not change the winds?
97. IDTH
"We interrupt this Hurricane season to bring you talks about CLIMATE CHANGE!!!"
Quoting 67. Dakster:



You do realize that the oil companies have all "shorted" oil in the market... They are more than ready for the oil collapse.
Yes, I am aware of this. I also know these same oil companies (on the chemical side of their business) are rapidly expanding their facilities, and building new ones to the tune of $50 billion dollars and up. I don't know what part of the country you live in, but here in the greater Houston area, these expansions rival that of the "shale oil boom" a few years ago. Not only are they building and expanding olefin and polyethylene plants they are also building chemical storage facilities and installing thousands of miles of pipelines throughout the state of Texas. All of this is being done with no visible sign of demand for it within our economy. It makes me wonder whats in store of us. I'm 52 years old and have lived in this area all of my life and I have never witnessed this kind of construction of petrochemical facilities ever.
Quoting 63. OKsky:
Every time I see the scientific illiterate posting on here about how AGW is a vast conspiracy it makes me think of a fly trying its hardest to fly through a (closed) window.

Quoting 93. SavannahStorm:

Hi all!

Just checking in now that I am at work and have power. What a crazy experience these last few days have been!

I rode out Matthew at my inlaw's place in Rincon, GA- just west of I-95 from Savannah. We lost power about 2 AM Friday night and my wife woke me up. The next 2 hours were insane- trees crashing all around the house and the wind roaring. At one point we heard the infamous "train noise" but to us it sounded more like a jet engine. We huddled in the bathroom for 10 minutes until it went away. The next morning we inspected the back of the property and I am fairly sure we had a F0 tornado go through- trees were down and twisted in a straight line through 3 properties stretching at least a 1/2 mile, with a path of only about 50 yards wide.

There are trees down on every road in that area, as well as overflowing ditches and creeks still causing some flooding issues. Power came back on there at about 7 pm last night. This morning I made my way back into Savannah- some areas seemed to be getting back to normal while others will have a long road ahead. My dad's house in Ardsley Park was untouched, but the 2 houses next to him had trees down on them. There are giant 100 year old oaks uprooted in the Chatham Crescent area that actually ripped the sidewalks and parts of the street and storm drains up with them.

Finally I made it out to my home on Whitemarsh Island to a surreal scene- boats sitting out on top of the marsh and up on the banks where they came unmoored. Highway 80 had huge drifts of marsh wrack pushed to the side of the road along with piles of trash and logs that washed up in the surge. My home was amazingly undamaged, but many of my neighbors were unlucky and had trees on theirs. Also, several had flooded garages from surge water since the marsh was only a stones throw away. From the high water marks I estimate there was 2-3 feet of standing land inundation in my neighborhood.

From what I have seen and heard- Tybee and Hilton Head got hit much worse than the rest of the area. However, overall I think it could've been much worse. I do NOT regret evacuating, though. Seeing the power of the weak side of a Cat 1 gives me a whole new perspective on what a major would do to this area. Hopefully Georgia can go another 40 years or more without experiencing another hurricane.


You should report that to your local NWS office before any trees get cleared, would be interesting to see a storm survey confirm your hypothesis!
Sorry folks, I didn't mean to get everyone riled up about climate change (even though I knew it would), there is plenty of tropical weather left in this season to discuss, so I'll try to wait for the "off-season" to add anymore input. I do however, appreciate the folks who did respond in a civil manner, and refrained from calling me an idiot. (although most on here probably agree, lol)
For those that missed this on the previous blog.



Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that an above-average number of tropical cyclones are most likely in the Australian region and Northwestern sub-region for 2016%u201317. All other regions are likely to have a near average number of tropical cyclones.
The Australian region has a 67% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 33% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coastline in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of an above average season at 59%. The chance of a below average season is 41%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 63% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 37% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern sub-region effect coastal areas at some stage in their life cycle. Outlook accuracy in this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In an average year the Northern region typically experiences three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy in this region is very low.

The Eastern region outlook also indicates a near average tropical cyclone season is most likely, with a 58% chance of above average and 42% chance of below average numbers. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy in this region is low.

Newly released Australian Bureau of Meteorology App.

Anyone interested?
Quoting 88. flibinite:

In more, um... current problems/situations, some big hot towers near the center of Nicole on the last visual before dark. Who knows, the way things are going this year, what with storm "persistence", it could be a Cat. 3 right over Bermuda.

Link

Jo


Ye, plenty of deep convection going on now that shear is lowering and she's moving over warmer waters:



Will be interesting to track her over the next day or so. Rapid intensification is possible.
Climate models for decades now have been forecasting a disproportionate amount of heating in the arctic. What they have failed for the most part to capture is the acceleration of that heating. Below is the daily mean air temperatures for the Arctic north of the 80th parallel, plotted with climate values calculated from 1958-2002. Over in Neven's Arctic forum many are quite concerned by 2016's record shattering heat influx into the Arctic. The jet stream is slowing and meandering as cold air masses leave the arctic and warm air masses invade.

Quoting 76. Astrometeor:



Changing the size of the storm does not necessarily mean the winds will also change. You can very well change the pressure of the storm, as large storms typically have lower pressures, but that doesn't equate into higher/lower winds.



(Sorry, had to)

But seriously, gradients dictate wind speeds. It's no coincidence that Patricia '15 had one of the sharpest pressure gradients (if not the sharpest pressure gradient) ever recorded when recon investigated the storm.
107. SLU
Quoting 97. IDTH:

"We interrupt this Hurricane season to bring you talks about CLIMATE CHANGE!!!"


If that's the case I rather another Matthew to redirect the flow.
Quoting 99. Xulonn:




Science does not really "Prove" anything. Yes we can strongly agree that something is true and agreed upon (like Gravity or Newton's Laws of Motion) but we can not 100 percent prove something.
Something to keep an eye on for the next few days. probably going to be shown as super strong than all of a sudden, disappears, but still keep an eye on it.
110. ariot
Quoting 48. AllBoardedUp:

And where do theseLet the bashing begin.


No need to bash you. You are flat wrong, provide no evidence and make a generally poor arguement that appears exceptionally lazy.

This should send the snow birds off.
Quoting 107. SLU:



If that's the case I rather another Matthew to redirect the flow.


Agreed - there is already a blog for Climate change - please post there.
Quoting 87. islander101010:

halloween hurricane 2016 taking aim on sw florida. the way things going why not?
Link please.
Quoting 59. SecretStormNerd:


Well 3/4 of the people that put up shutters in my neighborhood have yet to take them down. Maybe they know something lol
I took my shutters down. There cannot be anymore hurricanes for Florida this year, Comprende?
115. elioe
Quoting 104. VibrantPlanet:

Climate models for decades now have been forecasting a disproportionate amount of heating in the arctic. What they have failed for the most part to capture is the acceleration of that heating. Below is the daily mean air temperatures for the Arctic north of the 80th parallel, plotted with climate values calculated from 1958-2002. Over in Neven's Arctic forum many are quite concerned by 2016's record shattering heat influx into the Arctic. The jet stream is slowing and meandering as cold air masses leave the arctic and warm air masses invade.




I doubt, that at this point during autumn it would be heat influx from warm airmasses, that causes the anomalous surface warmth. I believe the Arctic Ocean is gradually losing its stratification, and heat increasingly starts to pour out of the relatively warm (+0 C- +4 C) deep waters.
Quoting 113. unknowncomic:

Link please.


looks like the 18z GFS has drop the idea



any way am taking a 2 too 3 week break from the blogs i will not be back in tell nov i will be lurking and checking up on the commits but i will not be posting mat has had me burned out so am i am done tracking tropical weather for a while


in other re rated news i may see my 1st rain event this coming weekend my rain forecast for sonora CA is 2 too 3" of rain up from 1 too 2" we will be getting what ever lift from SONGDA in the W PAC


any ways am out see you all in NOV
Looking forward to your thoughts on the tropics in November Taz
Quoting 116. thetwilightzone:



looks like the 18z GFS has drop the idea



any way am taking a 2 too 3 week break from the blogs i will not be back in tell nov i will be lurking and checking up on the commits but i will not be posting mat has had me burned out so am i am done tracking tropical weather for a while


in other re rated news i may see my 1st rain event this coming weekend my rain forecast for sonora CA is 2 too 3" of rain up from 1 too 2" we will be getting what ever lift from SONGDA in the W PAC


any ways am out see you all in NOV

It never dropped the idea...and the ensembles definetly didnt ..but whatever you think
Quoting 22. pingon:






David tracked on through the DC metro area and on northeast. Different from Matthew which turned out to sea at 35N or so
I'm reposting from the previous blog:


287. VirginIslandsVisitor
1:05 AM GMT on October 11, 2016

Good evening

It's been a wild couple of hours over here. Just a little over five inches of rain fell in a four-hour period this afternoon. Created lots of local flooding. I personally was at the office and had to play "keep dogs away from each other or one is gonna kill the other" because thunder sets the one off. In the 13 years I've been here, today was the worst thunder I've ever heard.

Just love the fact I just crossed Chicklet off my list of "people to worry about" and my list is complete! Am so, so thankful that my list of WU people affected by Matthew have checked in.

I do understand that there is still a lot that many of you are facing, but just understand that the sigh of relief that comes from this end of the world can probably be heard on your side of the world.....

Hoping all is well with you folks tonight!

Lindy
Quoting 114. unknowncomic:

I took my shutters down. There cannot be anymore hurricanes for Florida this year, Comprende?
I have a strict rule: Once boarded up it stays boarded up, until the end of the season.
Had nice seafood dinner after picking up koritheman from union station here in Nola this evening.

Got to show him the levee here and the causeway....as well as the cat 5 pumping station shelter.

He on the way up to Baton Rouge way now.

Heard his Melbourne,Flat, hurricane Matthew story.

Nice evening it was beaucoup.

🌉🌎😀😯✌
Quoting 106. 1900hurricane:




(Sorry, had to)

But seriously, gradients dictate wind speeds. It's no coincidence that Patricia '15 had one of the sharpest pressure gradients (if not the sharpest pressure gradient) ever recorded when recon investigated the storm.



I met that pilot from NOAA..here in May,during the HAT.


NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour
By: Portlight , 11:40 AM CDT on May 19, 2016 .



Quoting 120. VirginIslandsVisitor:

I'm reposting from the previous blog:


287. VirginIslandsVisitor
1:05 AM GMT on October 11, 2016

Good evening

It's been a wild couple of hours over here. Just a little over five inches of rain fell in a four-hour period this afternoon. Created lots of local flooding. I personally was at the office and had to play "keep dogs away from each other or one is gonna kill the other" because thunder sets the one off. In the 13 years I've been here, today was the worst thunder I've ever heard.

Just love the fact I just crossed Chicklet off my list of "people to worry about" and my list is complete! Am so, so thankful that my list of WU people affected by Matthew have checked in.

I do understand that there is still a lot that many of you are facing, but just understand that the sigh of relief that comes from this end of the world can probably be heard on your side of the world.....

Hoping all is well with you folks tonight!

Lindy



Well I know where I'm gonna go if I ever need a hug.

Lindy, you rock.
The Caribbean is almost done for 2016
Quoting 72. BobinTampa:



how many still have Christmas lights up?


I confess, I still have my Christmas tree up. Decorated and all.
Quoting 125. 19N81W:

The Caribbean is almost done for 2016
Oh I see

Quoting 58. AllBoardedUp:

So the 16% of scientists who have actual science degrees don't matter? Just because a majority agree with a certain philosophy doesn't make them correct. I'm sure 99 percent of the population during Sir Isaac Newton's time thought he was crazy and dismissed him as some kind of kook as well.


Late to the party, but quite the opposite.
Newton was held in high regard by his contemporaries, and achieved the equivalent of rock star fame in his twenties. After all he independently "co-discovered" the principles of calculus by the time he was 23 - something used to torture those in the teens and twenties ever since.

Quoting 125. 19N81W:

The Caribbean is almost done for 2016


What does "almost" mean? Expecting another storm?
Quoting 108. hotroddan:


Science does not really "Prove" anything. Yes we can strongly agree that something is true and agreed upon (like Gravity or Newton's Laws of Motion) but we can not 100 percent prove something.


True, but science tries really hard to disprove things, or determine if there exists any condition in which the hypothesis posed is not true. Then you can develop a further hypothesis to explain what is happening. If you can't gather evidence to render the hypothesis not true, well then . . . .
why don't some of you fools stay off of here. prove that the season is over. you cant because its not. you don't know what yur talking about.
132. beell
Quoting 125. 19N81W:

The Caribbean is almost done for 2016


Climatology and GFS mid-range suggests one of those aggravating Central American Gyres could make an appearance as anomalous low-level westerlies ramp up from the EPAC into the Southern Caribbean Basin. Probably an Autumn trough a-coming or a-going to allow latitude gains.


10/10 18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vort-valid @ 156 hrs

It makes the "run-to-run, relatively consistent depiction of a model's portrayal of conditional development" list.

Shootin' for wishy-washy here.
133. beell
Quoting 133. beell:




You see where Dr. Masters agreed with me about the forecast for Virginia? I think some think I was exaggerating, but we did not see it coming, and I blame it on the NHC because Masters tells us to consult them first..they failed
135. beell
Goodnight, FSU & all.
:)
Quoting 134. FSU2009:



You see where Dr. Masters agreed with me about the forecast for Virginia? I think some think I was exaggerating, but we did not see it coming, and I blame it on the NHC because Masters tells us to consult them first..they failed


And screaming about it will change anything? Look, it was an extremely complex sequence of events that ultimately determined the outcome. Any slight variation and the outcome could have been very different. Closer track to Florida, and a much weaker storm and possibly slower moving storm as it approached the GA, NC coast - and if that were to have occurred it very well may have never been absorbed by the front and lifted north.

But hey, the next time they'll go ahead and fail to forecast it again, jut to get you all riled up.
Matthew! What a storm to track. Who can forget the huge heart following convection provided the day after he RI'ed? The smile inside Matthew before he RI'ed? My folks, seven miles from AIA and the ocean now respect tropical systems far more. Was their first hurricane. They just got power back today.
NHC didn't fail. Climate, and the nature of, is just that complex and unpredictable.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
442 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2016

...Widespread rain to return late Thursday into Friday...

Main focus on the shift remains the first atmospheric river setup
of the season as moisture associated with Typhoon Songda
progresses to the east and becomes entrained in the flow of a
storm system over the North Pacific. That system is forecast to
work down the BC Coast with an associated cold front expected to
move through our region late Thursday into Friday.

Models have been highlighting this system for nearly a week now
and with the latest runs now indicated the potentially for monthly
record PW values (in excess of 1.60") to be associated with the
front, confidence is very high that we will see rainfall through
the region. Confidence is fairly high with the general timing --
rain to the North Bay Thursday evening, down to SF Bay late
Thursday or early Friday and then down to Monterey Bay starting
Friday morning.
Speaking of theory, was there any solid reason determined for Matthews convection backpack?
Quoting 134. FSU2009:



You see where Dr. Masters agreed with me about the forecast for Virginia? I think some think I was exaggerating, but we did not see it coming, and I blame it on the NHC because Masters tells us to consult them first..they failed



@FSU2009 --> you're one of the snowflakes I was referring to earlier about not being able to dead reckon your way out of a cul-de-sac.

You need to be told when to take your next breath? Man up & learn how to be educated enough to make your own decisions.

I did......I live on a small farm 150 miles east of Jacksonville....well west of Matt's cone.....but I made sure I still had 300 gals of water in case the well lost power to give me & the animals......made sure the coleman stove started before it was needed....made sure the chain was sharp & the motor ran on the chainsaw.....made sure I had enuff feed for the farm animals & the fleet of dogs/cats guarding the joint.

NWS Tallahassee didn't tell me to do any of that because the storm wasn't coming this way......but I made sure all this stuff was taken care of while Matt was engaging Haiti....my decision !!

Learn to make 'em.....you'll be surprised how much you enjoy your independence !!
Quoting 136. daddyjames:



And screaming about it will change anything? Look, it was an extremely complex sequence of events that ultimately determined the outcome. Any slight variation and the outcome could have been very different. Closer track to Florida, and a much weaker storm and possibly slower moving storm as it approached the GA, NC coast - and if that were to have occurred it very well may have never been absorbed by the front and lifted north.

But hey, the next time they'll go ahead and fail to forecast it again, jut to get you all riled up.

And Hurricane Warnings will again be posted for Southeast Florida...with a distinct threat of Cat 4 landfall...just to keep me riled up. Geez...Irene and Sandy caused far more impact to Broward County than did Matthew...Floyd, too...difference being that for Matthew the populace was terrified...the elderly, handicapped and their families...and no acknowledgement of the forecast overreach...Broward did not receive anything approaching Tropical Storm conditions, let alone Hurricane conditions. (Though NHC inaccurately indicates we received tropical storm force winds in their "Wind History" for Matthew.) The real fear is next time people will shrug off the warnings altogether....
If you were looking for a reason to start progging 2017...well...here ya go!...
Quoting 121. guygee:

I have a strict rule: Once boarded up it stays boarded up, until the end of the season.



Ohhh....I'll bet you're an HOA 'favorite' !!! ;-]
hnc did an great job with this storm, if you are so smart do your own forecasts and you will get rich cause there soo much better..yea right
Quoting 140. Lurkindanger:

Speaking of theory, was there any solid reason determined for Matthews convection backpack?


Only thing I've seen was a poster suggested it could be convergence where the trade winds were running into Matthew's circulation. Haven't seen anything official.
WPAC style E of the Lesser Antilles xD

Quoting 80. gunhilda:


Believe it or not, it's true.

But if you wonder why some of us get very passionate in our debates on this issue: for me, it's personal. Very personal. Because you and others routinely call my mom a fraud, a cheat, and a liar when really, she only wants what is best for humanity and planet based on her understanding of the science.



My parents are concentration camp survivors. My dad died in '72, my mom at 97 is still ticking. You've pretty much nailed how I feel about the folks who doubt that ever happened.

Typhoon Songda heading into the westerlies and a frontal zone over the North Pacific, bound for the West Coast.
Nicole looking more interesting this morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rgb-l.jpg

Still putting blame on others?
I highly doubt {edit}{am positive), Jeff, Bob, or the NHC caused this storm to effect your area so bad.
If your religious, you may try blaming God, if not mother nature.
Yes, the forecast wasn't perfect, but with a storm approaching your area, it's really up to YOU,
to prepare and make correct decisions.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!

JMO!!!!!!!

Quoting 134. FSU2009:



You see where Dr. Masters agreed with me about the forecast for Virginia? I think some think I was exaggerating, but we did not see it coming, and I blame it on the NHC because Masters tells us to consult them first..they failed
Found a really good link from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) that shows Hurricane Matthew damage assessments over the U.S., Haiti and the Bahamas: Link
Quoting 42. LMFAOmanmadeGW:

Neapolitan

And I assume that you will tell me that the dinosaurus caused their demise because of the Greenhouse gasses that they released from their rectums.

Has this planet ever had a climate that did not fluctuate between heating and cooling. If the scientists cannot effectively predict direcion and strength of a hurricane 2 days out, then how is it that they can predict climate change 30 years out? You don't really expect me to believe that do you? I got hit Hurricane Andrew and Charlie. In both cases up to the last minute the predictions were wrong! Don't you think that there is an economic interest by many scientists in maintaining the belief in global warming? If it was really based on scientific fact, then everyone would be in agreement.

You believe in magic? Climate changes are magical events and have always been without causes?
Death toll up to 30 in the U.S. now, from Matthew's direct and indirect effects. Very bad, and very sad, and still so many people under the water gun from this, and/or without power. :-(

Jo
156. ackee
I see the Euro CmC and GFS all hinting that the carribbean is not done yet and something may try to develop later next week and beyond guess we see
Quoting 141. KuCommando:




@FSU2009 --> you're one of the snowflakes I was referring to earlier about not being able to dead reckon your way out of a cul-de-sac.

You need to be told when to take your next breath? Man up & learn how to be educated enough to make your own decisions.

I did......I live on a small farm 150 miles east of Jacksonville....well west of Matt's cone.....but I made sure I still had 300 gals of water in case the well lost power to give me & the animals......made sure the coleman stove started before it was needed....made sure the chain was sharp & the motor ran on the chainsaw.....made sure I had enuff feed for the farm animals & the fleet of dogs/cats guarding the joint.

NWS Tallahassee didn't tell me to do any of that because the storm wasn't coming this way......but I made sure all this stuff was taken care of while Matt was engaging Haiti....my decision !!

Learn to make 'em.....you'll be surprised how much you enjoy your independence !!


150 miles east of Jacksonville? Are you sure you know where you live?
Hurricane Sandy-level flooding is rising so sharply that it could become normal
Findings highlight how US is in grip of significant environmental changes driven by warming temperatures in different ways to processes that fuel hurricanes
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Tuesday 11 October 2016 10.00 BST

Have a good morning and day, everyone.
good/morning yep gfs puts a system right east of nicaraqua costa rica at 180 hours. lotsof deep tropical moisture in that part of the world. good luck all
This might become Otto
161. elioe
DOOM!
Quoting 162. HurricaneFan:

DOOM!



Mars sounds like a nice stay while I evac for ghost manor hurricane otto
otto will be all dressed up and looking handsome for halloween. warning he will bite like a pitbull.
Quoting 163. ElConando:



Mars sounds like a nice stay while I evac for ghost manor hurricane otto

Oh heck no! lol..Wilma 2.0?


Songda on its way to the Pacific Northwest. A TS for Seattle, lol?


North American coastline showing up in the upper right corner (click to enlarge).



Stormy weather ahead for the Pacific Northwest
by: KIRO 7 Chief Meteorologist Morgan Palmer Updated: Oct 10, 2016 - 8:38 PM
Get ready ahead of several bouts of heavy rain and strong wind starting Thursday!
With a potent and swift jet stream, plenty of available subtropical moisture and even energy from Typhoon Songda in the western Pacific, it's going to be an active period of weather starting Thursday and lasting through Saturday night. ...


Quoting 157. Bucsboltsfan:



150 miles east of Jacksonville? Are you sure you know where you live?


You are correct.....150 west......I'm gettin' old man ;-]
Quoting 162. HurricaneFan:

DOOM!



Wow the GFS still sniffing out storms, now even near the GOM.
169. MahFL
Quoting 141. KuCommando:




......I live on a small farm 150 miles east of Jacksonville....


So you have an Ocean Farm ?
Technical question - did Hurricane Matthew make landfall ?
Off hand I'd say no. Matthew never came ashore it only brushed the coast line putting millions of folks in the dark.
Matthew displayed the power of inland flooding that takes days, not hours, to reach the ocean.
171. MahFL
Quoting 168. drg0dOwnCountry:



Wow the GFS still sniffing out storms, now even near the GOM.


Doom ! indeed.
172. MahFL
Quoting 170. TechnoCaveman:

Technical question - did Hurricane Matthew make landfall ?
Off hand I'd say no. Matthew never came ashore it only brushed the coast line putting millions of folks in the dark.
Matthew displayed the power of inland flooding that takes days, not hours, to reach the ocean.


Well your wrong, the NHC said Matthew made landfall.
Quoting 170. TechnoCaveman:

Technical question - did Hurricane Matthew make landfall ?
Off hand I'd say no. Matthew never came ashore it only brushed the coast line putting millions of folks in the dark.
Matthew displayed the power of inland flooding that takes days, not hours, to reach the ocean.


yes, matthew finally came ashore near McClellanville, SC.
174. elioe
Tampa doom?

Songda's remnants are definitely going to make weather interesting over the US when it reaches us.
Quoting 141. KuCommando:




@FSU2009 --> you're one of the snowflakes I was referring to earlier about not being able to dead reckon your way out of a cul-de-sac.

You need to be told when to take your next breath? Man up & learn how to be educated enough to make your own decisions.

I did......I live on a small farm 150 miles east of Jacksonville....well west of Matt's cone.....but I made sure I still had 300 gals of water in case the well lost power to give me & the animals......made sure the coleman stove started before it was needed....made sure the chain was sharp & the motor ran on the chainsaw.....made sure I had enuff feed for the farm animals & the fleet of dogs/cats guarding the joint.

NWS Tallahassee didn't tell me to do any of that because the storm wasn't coming this way......but I made sure all this stuff was taken care of while Matt was engaging Haiti....my decision !!

Learn to make 'em.....you'll be surprised how much you enjoy your independence !!

You just summed up the reason I come here for information. Yes, make your own informed decisions. Folks have posted wonderful advice about storm prep, the aftermath, and insurance issues. Presumably you are here for information in the first place?
Quoting 141. KuCommando:




you're one of the snowflakes I was referring to earlier about not being able to dead reckon your way out of a cul-de-sac.




Excellent phrase I will definitely steal it.
Quoting 167. KuCommando:



You are correct.....150 west......I'm gettin' old man ;-]


Lol, kinda knew that or else you worked for the CIA and lived on a secret island east of Jacksonville.
Quoting 174. elioe:

Tampa doom?



What?!
GEOS-5 (which is up and running again today) has the next possible storm developing in the South West Caribbean but then moving toward Jamaica, East Cuba, toward the East Coast of Florida...a very Matthew like track. Pretty far out in time.
This we do not need!
Quoting 179. Chicklit:


What?!
Hi Skyepony and Chicklit... glad you ladies fared Matthew OK.
Quoting 180. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 (which is up and running again today) has the next possible storm developing in the South West Caribbean but then moving toward Jamaica, East Cuba, toward the East Coast of Florida...a very Matthew like track. Pretty far out in time.


There's this too at 234 hrs fwiw:

Quoting 168. drg0dOwnCountry:



Wow the GFS still sniffing out storms, now even near the GOM.


The season can feel free to come to an end...

No more.
Good morning..Looks like Mother nature will show her strength again, and not just in the tropics....

Could certainly do without something like this...Too far out, but climatology backs the possibility..

Quoting 140. Lurkindanger:

Speaking of theory, was there any solid reason determined for Matthews convection backpack?

Eventually I think someone from NHC agreed it was a confluence line. It happens more in the West Pacific. The storm flings wind into usually an established westerly trade wind, causing a confluence line to erupt and then uses that like a second engine to feed off of. I pointed it out as soon as it appeared before any real intensification had occurred. It is a very distinctive feature on MIMIC. It's a sign of possibly Very Rapid Intensification coming. For Matthew it did cause VRI and put him in the top 95% of RI storms according to the study I linked. There has been other studies on this phenomenon, most are from the West Pacific. Cited Wang as he is fairly well known ..

Quoting 12. Skyepony:

Here is from a study about the the confluence line Mathew has to the SouthEast. We've seen this before. It's a sign of some Rapid Intensification coming... Blown up like that perhaps VRI..

The interpretation of this result is that for
the VRI (Very Rapid Intensification) cases, the confluence of a region of wester-
lies meeting easterlies just to the east of the compos-
ite TS (tropical storm) is stronger than for the SI (slow intensification) cases. If the regular
RI (Rapid Intensification) cases are compared in the same way with the VRI
cases, a similar but less strong result is found.


Quoting 186. Skyepony:


Eventually I think someone from NHC agreed it was a confluence line. It happens more in the West Pacific. The storm flings wind into usually an established westerly trade wind, causing a confluence line to erupt and then uses that like a second engine to feed off of. I pointed it out as soon as it appeared before any real intensification had occurred. It is a very distinctive feature on MIMIC. It's a sign of possibly Very Rapid Intensification coming. For Matthew it did cause VRI and put him in the top 95% of RI storms according to the study I linked. There has been other studies on this phenomenon, most are from the West Pacific. Cited Wang as he is fairly well known ..



Hello Skye...I thought it was the trades slamming into Matts vortex.. Certainly looked like it on the visible loops.
Quoting 182. WxLogic:

Hi Skyepony and Chicklit... glad you ladies fared Matthew OK.

Fared alright. Lost a little storage barn roof. Nothing that didn't already need replaced & still have days of yard/pasture clean up ahead. Had handful of neighbors that have had to find other living arrangements for now.
Here is one..roof peeled up entirely from front to back.
Very strong support from the 06z GFS ensembles for the potential western Caribbean storm.

190. IDTH
Really far out, I need to see the time frame move up before this is certain it'll happen. I know the GFS is expecting the MJO here but the Euro is still stuck in the circle (last I saw). Climatology supports this happening but I need to see the time frame move up to be on board with it.
Is it from a wave or does it just magically appear?

Quoting 189. CybrTeddy:

Very strong support from the 06z GFS ensembles for the potential western Caribbean storm.


Quoting 141. KuCommando:




@FSU2009 --> you're one of the snowflakes I was referring to earlier about not being able to dead reckon your way out of a cul-de-sac.

You need to be told when to take your next breath? Man up & learn how to be educated enough to make your own decisions.

I did......I live on a small farm 150 miles east of Jacksonville....well west of Matt's cone.....but I made sure I still had 300 gals of water in case the well lost power to give me & the animals......made sure the coleman stove started before it was needed....made sure the chain was sharp & the motor ran on the chainsaw.....made sure I had enuff feed for the farm animals & the fleet of dogs/cats guarding the joint.

NWS Tallahassee didn't tell me to do any of that because the storm wasn't coming this way......but I made sure all this stuff was taken care of while Matt was engaging Haiti....my decision !!

Learn to make 'em.....you'll be surprised how much you enjoy your independence !!
Quoting 188. Skyepony:


Fared alright. Lost a little storage barn roof. Nothing that didn't already need replaced & still have days of yard/pasture clean up ahead. Had handful of neighbors that have had to find other living arrangements for now.
Here is one..roof peeled up entirely from front to back.

Thats bad....Once the rain gets in its pretty much a complete loss...Our neighbors lost there roof completely during Charley, most everything was ruined..Could not get a roof on by the time Jean came...That fished off anything that was left. Most of the framing was o.k.,...Everything else came off with the roof...The horse stable was actually still intact after both storms...:)
Quoting 174. elioe:

Tampa doom?




Awaiting STS's take on it... :^O
Quoting 187. hydrus:

Hello Skye...I thought it was the trades slamming into Matts vortex.. Certainly looked like it on the visible loops.

I think we are saying close to the same thing. It's the trade winds slamming into the opposing winds that Matthew was producing on his Southeast and east side. The winds collide at the surface causing insane convergence, resulting in much convection.
Quoting 191. 19N81W:

Is it from a wave or does it just magically appear?


I was wondering about that too...Someone said yesterday that it could be the wave in the Central Atlantic moving west...There still some waves coming off Africa, and quit potent for this time of year......

Quoting 157. Bucsboltsfan:



150 miles east of Jacksonville? Are you sure you know where you live?
Maybe he is an aqua culturist, growing fish and corals, for resale. Good catch by the way on his location, and yes it probably was a typo, but you never know.
Quoting 195. Skyepony:


I think we are saying close to the same thing. It's the trade winds slamming into the opposing winds that Matthew was producing on his Southeast and east side. The winds collide at the surface causing insane convergence, resulting in much convection.
There may have been some divergence along with the convergence, if the the fast rotation was deflecting the trade winds hard enough.
Quoting 176. NEFLWATCHING:

You just summed up the reason I come here for information. Yes, make your own informed decisions. Folks have posted wonderful advice about storm prep, the aftermath, and insurance issues. Presumably you are here for information in the first place?


Hello, I'm in the south Jax beach/ponte vedra area- I tried to respond to a question you had posted yesterday, but the blogs were down. Sorry I missed you and was unable to answer your question- if you click on my name, I have a few links in posts on my blog, but I think that might be a mute point now.

I hope your area survived; sad about Vilano, A1A.

peace, aqua
(waves to Skye and all other beloved peeps and fiends, locals and otherwise)
Quoting 194. LoveReignoerMe:



Awaiting STS's take on it... :^O

Largo, where is your Tampa shield?
Just looked at the Euro Ensembles infact all of them and well there are many ensembles that show a TS or a Hurricane moving north from the Caribbean entering into the Bahamas then veering WNW/NW into Eastern FL in the 12 to 14 day range due to a blocking high over the NE US. There are some that have this system affecting the FL Panhandle.

There is another threat looming and those cleaning up in FL from Hurricane Matthew really need to watch what is going on the Caribbean come next week.
Quoting 193. hydrus:

Thats bad....Once the rain gets in its pretty much a complete loss...Our neighbors lost there roof completely during Charley, most everything was ruined..Could not get a roof on by the time Jean came...That fished off anything that was left. Most of the framing was o.k.,...Everything else came off with the roof...The horse stable was actually still intact after both storms...:)

As long as the barn is alright;)

We boarded up the barn for Mathew. it's too close to alot of trees not to. The livestock came through okay, a few were a little freaked out. Skye (the actual pony) liked it better than riding it out at a different barn.

The red maple trees really shed and split trunks in Matthew. Red maple drying off the tree like this is extremely poisonous to horses. It has been an effort reminding people not to turn out horses with all this in their pasture. Still can't turn them out in 1/2 of their grazing areas here because of it. Spent several hours one day cleaning out a corner of the field of it that had come from a few neighbor's trees.

Here is some other neighborhood pics with extreme red maple debris..

204. elioe
If some kind of consensus could be created from the model runs, it could look like this:

Quoting 175. terstorm:

Songda's remnants are definitely going to make weather interesting over the US when it reaches us.
It usually puts the Western High/ Eastern low scenario over the U.S.....Very interesting indeed.
Quoting 203. Skyepony:


As long as the barn is alright;)

We boarded up the barn for Mathew. it's too close to alot of trees not to. The livestock came through okay, a few were a little freaked out. Skye (the actual pony) liked it better than riding it out at a different barn.

The red maple trees really shed and split trunks in Matthew. Red maple drying off the tree like this is extremely poisonous to horses. It has been an effort reminding people not to turn out horses with all this in their pasture. Still can't turn them out in 1/2 of their grazing areas here because of it. Spent several hours one day cleaning out a corner of the field of it that had come from a few neighbor's trees.

Here is some other neighborhood pics with extreme red maple debris..


Looks like you have a lot of work Skye. Took us about 2 and a half years to clean up after the 04 season ( pasture absolutely loaded with oaks and pines ), and still was not quite finished. Up here we have Black Walnuts, a no eat for horses or dogs, and the entire tree is toxic roots and all. They are huge, reaching up to 150 feet. We have 3 in the back yard, one over 100', and handle ice and wind rather well...No horses , but the wolfhounds have to be watched.
Up on cripple creek She sends me,

Quoting 204. elioe:

If some kind of consensus could be created from the model runs, it could look like this:




Anything can happen in October but what has been interesting is the US keeps entering into a Blocking pattern with a big high over the Mid Atlantic causing mischief to form underneath.
Quoting 207. Patrap:

Up on cripple creek She sends me,


Mornin Pat...Whats at the creek.?...Fresh tea straight off the trees.?...:)
Quoting 199. aquak9:



Hello, I'm in the south Jax beach/ponte vedra area- I tried to respond to a question you had posted yesterday, but the blogs were down. Sorry I missed you and was unable to answer your question- if you click on my name, I have a few links in posts on my blog, but I think that might be a mute point now.

I hope your area survived; sad about Vilano, A1A.

peace, aqua
Yes, my area was okay, I do have a 100 ft plus oak that laid over, just not on the house. Many at my job (railroad) were affected by this storm. I feel very lucky. I only evacuated because it showed coming across my house as Cat 4. I am in St. Augustine, just north of 312 bridge. Have not had time to go check out the hard hit areas yet.
worst case scenario would the system slowly move across florida from the gulf of mexico. the state is saturated ready for a good flooding. they better be draining that big lake.
Quoting 210. NEFLWATCHING:

Yes, my area was okay, I do have a 100 ft plus oak that laid over, just not on the house. Many at my job (railroad) were affected by this storm. I feel very lucky. I only evacuated because it showed coming across my house as Cat 4. I am in St. Augustine, just north of 312 bridge. Have not had time to go check out the hard hit areas yet.

Greetings..Is there a chance the oak will survive.?..Sometimes you can leave them alone, and the continue to grow..We had two that were blown over , and lived.
Nicole and Bermuda (hope link works):

Quoting 211. islander101010:

worst case scenario would the system slowly move across florida from the gulf of mexico. the state is saturated ready for a good flooding. they better be draining that big lake.


In my area 8.21" from Matthew with 10.22" for October and that's ontop of over 12" in September and 9" in August. After a dry July Mother Nature has went into Flood mode around here. It is looking like another system maybe looming come later next week in the Caribbean and this one needs to be watched too.
Quoting 196. hydrus:

I was wondering about that too...Someone said yesterday that it could be the wave in the Central Atlantic moving west...There still some waves coming off Africa, and quit potent for this time of year......


Good morning. Not sure about this but if something does form I don't see how it could be from a wave coming off of Africa. Shear in the CAtl is pretty high. Further west it seems to have fallen significantly.Link
Quoting 209. hydrus:

Mornin Pat...Whats at the creek.?...Fresh tea straight off the trees.?...:)


The Band.



I'm in the studio with my sons band.

✌😀😯🌎

Quoting 215. stormwatcherCI:

Good morning. Not sure about this but if something does form I don't see how it could be from a wave coming off of Africa. Shear in the CAtl is pretty high. Further west it seems to have fallen significantly.Link


Looks like maybe energy from the E-Pac that moves north into the Southern Caribbean.

Low actually begins forming this weekend per the GFS

What is this?

Link
Euro Ensembles begin lifting a system at day 10 toward FL. Also the members that take this to the Bahamas notice the block to the north hence the move back to FL like Matthew if the system heads in that direction other members move due north like Hermine did.

Quoting 212. hydrus:

Greetings..Is there a chance the oak will survive.?..Sometimes you can leave them alone, and the continue to grow..We had two that were blown over , and lived.
Who knows? I just know I do not have the means nor the money to attack it.
We could really use a weak tropical storm here in the southeast..... worst drought in 10 years, dozens of wildfires, local reservoir is down to 25% capacity, and there is no rain forecasted for 10 days.
Quoting 218. RampagePCFL:

What is this?

Link


That's a Hallow-cane. Oct 27th. Today is the 11th. 384 hour forecast. Seen this so many times over the years. I would say this only represents entertainment and possible potential for energy in the region at best.
October has not been kind to Bermuda the last few years, hopefully this is just another windy day for a well-prepared island.

Quoting 222. pipelines:

We could really use a weak tropical storm here in the southeast..... worst drought in 10 years, dozens of wildfires, local reservoir is down to 25% capacity, and there is no rain forecasted for 10 days.


Depends which part of the southeast you're talking about. We're fine without any more.
Quoting 217. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like maybe energy from the E-Pac that moves north into the Southern Caribbean.

Low actually begins forming this weekend per the GFS


Based on my observations, P45L is currently attempting to get past the extreme south Caribbean into EPAC, but I don't believe it will be able to "cleanly" be able to move all of the associated moisture/vorticity into EPAC.

The left over or remnants of P45L will linger in the Panama region, until it starts interacting with with two TW (one approaching Panama and another soon to enter the E Caribbean in a couple days).



You can see moisture starting to pool across the Panama region:



strong cat 4 in haiti no doubt about it. look at these photos of ground zero with the volunteers. http://www.univision.com/univision-news/environmen t/in-pictures-haitis-post-hurricane-relief-effort- underway-fotos
Found a really good link from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) that shows Hurricane Matthew damage assessments over the U.S., Haiti and the Bahamas:Link

Question for the hurricane historians. Nicole has been around for a week now and seems to have moved very little at this point. Have any tropical storms stayed in one place as well as she has in the past? Usually too much cold water get brought up to allow storm continuation without movement.

just a strange thought. Not really important since so far it has been a fish. However that may change with the forecast for Bermuda
Quoting 216. Patrap:



The Band.



I'm in the studio with my sons band.

✌😀😯🌎


Very cool...Hope to get to N.O. someday and experience all the good tunes...There are many to be heard.
Quoting 228. roberie:

Question for the hurricane historians. Nicole has been around for a week now and seems to have moved very little at this point. Have any tropical storms stayed in one place as well as she has in the past? Usually too much cold water get brought up to allow storm continuation without movement.

just a strange thought. Not really important since so far it has been a fish. However that may change with the forecast for Bermuda
1971,s Hurricane Ginger. It was the second longest hurricane on record.. meandered around for a month...Link



Typhoon Songda, headed into the westerlies east of Japan. The storm will persist as a tropical system right into the Gulf of Alaska where it will transition into a powerful extratropical storm that will be carried into the West Coast, including the northern 2/3 of California, by a strong early season jet stream that is already easily undercutting the blocking ridge. Warnings are up for heavy rain, high winds and high seas along the coast. This will put an end to the fire season in our region.

Strengthening northerly storm track clearly evident over the North Pacific with Typhoon Songda not yet in the picture to the west. Two invests have emerged in the EPac and one south of Hawaii.
Quoting 224. win1gamegiantsplease:

October has not been kind to Bermuda the last few years, hopefully this is just another windy day for a well-prepared island.



Depends which part of the southeast you're talking about. We're fine without any more.


Sorry, when I say Southeast I typically mean the Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee area. I think of Virginia, North and South Carolina as east coast, they definitely do not need anymore rain!
and it begins, I wonder if Nicole will go into RI?

Quoting 231. BayFog:



Typhoon Songda, headed into the westerlies east of Japan. The storm will persist as a tropical system right into the Gulf of Alaska where it will transition into a powerful extratropical storm that will be carried into the West Coast, including the northern 2/3 of California, by a strong early season jet stream that is already easily undercutting the blocking ridge. Warnings are up for heavy rain, high winds and high seas along the coast. This will put an end to the fire season in our region.
This will be an interesting fall and winter. Things are coming together for some severe weather and a rough winter...Here is the latest report from AER about the coming fall and winter...Stratophere is already coupling with the troposhere over the polar region. That along with a weak polar vort spells trouble..He said there are other factors involved in the forecast....Here is the link...Link
Quoting 233. pipelines:



Sorry, when I say Southeast I typically mean the Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee area. I think of Virginia, North and South Carolina as east coast, they definitely do not need anymore rain!
Howdy...We are dry here in Mid TN....some areas a foot behind in rain..
Quoting 234. pipelines:

and it begins, I wonder if Nicole will go into RI?




She did it once under worse conditions. She looks to be already starting.
Quoting 223. StormHype:



That's a Hallow-cane. Oct 27th. Today is the 11th. 384 hour forecast. Seen this so many times over the years. I would say this only represents entertainment and possible potential for energy in the region at best.

That is actually today's date that he linked it to. I am assuming it's Nicole. Hour 384 on the GFS shows a Florida landfall.
The GFS did well in sniffing out Matthew and Sandy a few years back.
Quoting 236. hydrus:

Howdy...We are dry here in Mid TN....some areas a foot behind in rain..


Just south of Birmingham here, we're in an extreme drought right now. If we don't get rain in the next couple weeks we'll probably be put into exceptional.
#231 and 232 BayFog:
From your choice of that handle and focus on the north East Pacific I'm guessing you are near San Francisco.
I'm just north of the 49th parallel on Vancouver Island.
Much as the general focus on Atlantic weather on these blogs is entertaining, I am very interested in what the weather to our north and west is up to.
We have a 'Weather Advisory' for tomorrow evening - lots of rain and wind for the following days - I don't think Songda proper will be here by then.

Quoting 239. washingtonian115:

The GFS did well in sniffing out Matthew and Sandy a few years back.
              Agreed on Matthew, but with respect to Sandy, the GFS was infamously wrong. It was the European that showed the left turn and NHC was all in on the GFS which showed Sandy moving OTS/NE. It was the storm that ended NHC's over-reliance on the GFS.
Hello

Anyone got a link to GOES-5 model
Quoting 239. washingtonian115:

The GFS did well in sniffing out Matthew and Sandy a few years back.
And almost all the models including the Euro blew it when the storm reached South Carolina..Most of the forecasts were good until that point...Including the NHC, Doc and Mr.Henson's...
Hello! I have recently joined, after years of lurking. I have a question, but I wanted to wait until the urgency of Matthew had subsided, so as not to slow down the blog. Here it is: How do you comment on and/or read comments of other people's blog posts? Thanks.
Something funky is going on with this radar.

Quoting 242. blizzardwatcher:


              Agreed on Matthew, but with respect to Sandy, the GFS was infamously wrong. It was the European that showed the left turn and NHC was all in on the GFS which showed Sandy moving OTS/NE. It was the storm that ended NHC's over-reliance on the GFS.


I do believe the point was that GFS showed the system forming not the actual forecasted track
Quoting 240. pipelines:



Just south of Birmingham here, we're in an extreme drought right now. If we don't get rain in the next couple weeks we'll probably be put into exceptional.
It will be a while before some help comes...from rain..
Videos of flooding in Nova Scotia, Canada from the remnants of Hurricane Matthew

YouTube

YouTube

News Story
Eye see it!!
12Z GFS really starts building the moisture up across the SW Caribbean by Friday. Genesis of a tropical system in the Caribbean isn't that many days away it appears and the NHC could start mentioning this area over the next day or so if these trends continue.

Quoting 234. pipelines:

and it begins, I wonder if Nicole will go into RI?




Nicole it seems is definitely into RI- hopefully it won't get anywhere near as strong as Monstrous Matthew... Nicole has also been a fascinating storm -like Matthew unrelenting in their potential for increased intensity despite all negating factors. Simply Epic storms.

Thoughts and Prayers for those in Bermuda. Please do not be nonchalant about this system which poses yet another threat to your lovely shores.

Pray for the best & Prepare for the worst...
Blessings!
Quoting 225. WxLogic:



Based on my observations, P45L is currently attempting to get past the extreme south Caribbean into EPAC, but I don't believe it will be able to "cleanly" be able to move all of the associated moisture/vorticity into EPAC.

The left over or remnants of P45L will linger in the Panama region, until it starts interacting with with two TW (one approaching Panama and another soon to enter the E Caribbean in a couple days).



You can see moisture starting to pool across the Panama region:






Good afternoon. I know you live somewhere close to me and I was wondering if you lost power too. Mine came back on Saturday. Also had some trees down in my neighborhood too and lots of limbs. Was your yard a wreck too? Also how about all that rain Thursday Night I picked up 6.30" Thursday and another 1.90" on Friday mostly early though on Friday.
it was the wind shift strong ne to strong sw that did alot of damage here in e cen fl. broke the maples like match sticks. acc to my raingauge we got about 3 " inches.
Quoting 221. NEFLWATCHING:

Who knows? I just know I do not have the means nor the money to attack it.



Maybe ask around - some mills buy the nicer hardwoods brought down for high grade lumber. Neighbor behind us lost a black walnut in a F0 tornado (Southeastern PA) but selling it to a mill helped pay for some of the damage.
A relief push is being organised for Haiti as plan is coming in to focus quickly.

It will be a directed effort for a imediatte local need .

Details to come.

My friend came to me
With sadness in his eyes
Told me that he wanted help
Before his country dies
Although I couldn't feel the pain
I knew I had to try
Now I'm asking all of you
Help us save some lives


🌎🎑🌊🌞🌅
Quoting 257. Patrap:

A relief push is being organised for Haiti as plan is coming in to focus quickly.

It will be a directed effort for a imediatte local need .

Details to come.

My friend came to me
With sadness in his eyes
Told me that he wanted help
Before his country dies
Although I couldn't feel the pain
I knew I had to try
Now I'm asking all of you
Help us save some lives


🌎🎑🌊🌞🌅


George Harrison, great artist!


Here we go again!
Quoting 259. HurriHistory:



Here we go again!


Hour 384, don't count on it.
Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:



Good afternoon. I know you live somewhere close to me and I was wondering if you lost power too. Mine came back on Saturday. Also had some trees down in my neighborhood too and lots of limbs. Was your yard a wreck too? Also how about all that rain Thursday Night I picked up 6.30" Thursday and another 1.90" on Friday mostly early though on Friday.


Hi STS, thanks God my power didn't went out, even though it tried to a couple times. I picked up 6.05" for that period with a lot of limbs as well to pick up.
People are going through the routine motions here today in Bermuda. All prep work will be done by the end of the day. It is safe to say with the hurricane record our little Island has, people are very well prepared and experienced on how to deal with storms like this. We do not play around with prep work, we understand bad weather as there is no where to go when these things do happen, we cannot evacuate. Our building code is very strict and the reef line helps to break down swell, we are almost purpose built to weather hurricanes.

The story of Bermuda as a country actually originates from the the wrecking of Sea Venture in 1609 during a Tempest, which inspired William Shakespeare to pen the play, the fabled Isles were seemingly inhabited with spirits and devils. Bermuda before she was officially named had been referred to by the Europeans as the Devils Isles, believing that the strong storms and screeching of the Cahow Petrols were the work of the devils inhabiting the place.

Apart from that, it is a very beautiful place to live and work. You all should come down for a visit sometime!!

Ey GFS, don't get too confident in that HallowCane now... Seriously ,don't......
Quoting 260. FunnelVortex:



Hour 384, don't count on it.


Ha ha, I won't. Cause I know better. In 384 hours that system might not even be there. It's a game of wait and see as always.

Otto.
Quoting 237. LostTomorrows:



She did it once under worse conditions. She looks to be already starting.



cat 3
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Recon almost there - not gonna be good news.
Quoting 215. stormwatcherCI:

Good morning. Not sure about this but if something does form I don't see how it could be from a wave coming off of Africa. Shear in the CAtl is pretty high. Further west it seems to have fallen significantly.Link
Good morning..The waves have survived the shear, and go on in a weakened state, but still have good rotation at the low levels...Pat said it right, the Cape verde waves are not like the areas of disturbed weather that crop up in the tropics...They already have a vigorous spin to them...By the time they are in out region, the form quickly if conditions are right.
Quoting 266. Grothar:




cat 3


Could even make a run for cat 4 status as she'll have 2 days of favourable conditions and models show her strengthening despite higher shear after Bermuda - likely due to baroclinic forcing, before becoming extratropical.

Certainly looks like she'll be quite mean once she gets that eye sorted:



We have a recon plane going into Nicole now:

I remember when the first model runs were coming out with Matthew. It showed it hitting Florida quite a few times then runs started taking it into PR and points west. Then the dip south came and models went north between Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. Well you know the rest. Anything is possible!_
Quoting 260. FunnelVortex:



Hour 384, don't count on it.
ok one is like 10 days out and the other is 17 days out so whats up and where is it coming from?
Quoting 263. isothunder67:

Ey GFS, don't get too confident in that HallowCane now... Seriously ,don't......