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Matthew Flings All-Time Surge and Rainfall Records Across Southeast

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 7:20 PM GMT on October 09, 2016

After a devastating 12-day rampage from the Caribbean to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic, Hurricane Matthew was reclassified as a post-tropical cyclone at 5 am EDT Sunday by the National Hurricane Center. Matthew wasn’t exactly slacking off--its top sustained winds remained 75 mph as of NHC’s 2 pm Sunday advisory--but it no longer had the warm core required for tropical-cyclone status. At 2 pm EDT, Matthew was located about 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving east at 15 mph. After days of computer models suggesting a potential loop back toward Florida, it now appears Matthew will continue eastward and gradually dissipate.

It will be some time before we have a more complete sense of Matthew’s toll, but we already know that it is the deadliest hurricane in the Western Hemisphere since 2005. In Haiti, Matthew took at least 877 lives and and left entire towns across southern Haiti almost completely destroyed. A handful of deaths and significant damage were also reported in Cuba, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Colombia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and the Dominican Republic. After Haiti, it was the United States that took the worst of Matthew’s wrath. At least 16 U.S. deaths have been reported, and insured damage is expected to total at least $4 billion. See our Saturday post for details on how you can provide much-needed help to those struggling with the aftermath of Matthew.


Figure 1. A police officer walks past the remnants of a home leveled by Hurricane Matthew after it hit the tiny beach community of Edisto Beach, SC, on Saturday, October 8, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/David Goldman.

From Florida to Virginia, astounding rains and storm surge
Matthew traced a path remarkably similar to the coastline of the Southeast U.S. Although its center stayed within about 50 miles of the coast for more than 36 hours and hundreds of miles, Matthew officially came ashore only briefly as a Category 1 hurricane along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast on Saturday afternoon. Matthew’s overall path kept its strongest winds just offshore, with few or no reports of sustained hurricane-force winds along the Southeast U.S. coast. Top wind gusts compiled by weather.com included 107 mph at Cape Canaveral, FL (collected on a tower 54 feet above ground level) and 96 mph at Tybee Island, GA.

Matthew’s just-offshore track may have spared the Southeast from billions of dollars in wind damage, but it didn’t keep the hurricane from packing a phenomenal punch in the form of water. Like several other U.S. hurricanes in the last decade, including Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), Matthew delivered a much more severe storm surge than one might expect from its landfall strength, thanks to the water built up by much higher winds earlier in its life offshore. Matthew’s track along the concave Southeast coast also enhanced its ability to produce high surge. Major storm surge was reported as far north as the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia, which received an unexpectedly powerful blow from Matthew that also included tropical-storm-strength sustained winds (including a peak gust of 75 mph at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach) and torrential rain.


Figure 2. Highway A1A in Flagler Beach, Florida on Saturday, October 8, 2016, after Hurricane Matthew’s record storm surge chewed up the road. Matthew brought a record storm surge of just over three feet to the Flagler Beach area on October 7, 2016. Image credit: Red Huber/Orlando Sentinel via AP.



Figure 3. Highway A1A in Flagler Beach, Florida on Saturday, October 8, 2016, after Hurricane Matthew’s record storm surge chewed up the road. Matthew brought a record storm surge of just over three feet to the Flagler Beach area on October 7, 2016. Image credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images.


As of 8 am EDT Sunday, October 9, here are the approximate peak storm surges observed over the preceding 48 hours at all the tide gauges with a long-term period of record (at least a few decades) along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. (Storm surge is the added water produced by a storm atop the normal tidal cycles.)

7.8’ Fort Pulaski, GA
6.4’ Fernandina Beach, FL
6.1’ Charleston, SC
4.5’ Mayport, FL
4.4’ Springmaid Pier, SC
4.1’ Wilmington, NC
4.1' Money Point (Norfolk), VA
3.5' Sewells Point (Norfolk), VA
3.3' Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
2.6’ Beaufort, NC

Three tide gauges with long-term historical records along this stretch of coast set all-time records on Friday through Sunday for their highest water level (also called the storm tide, or the water level measured relative to high tide, MHHW):

Fort Pulaski, Georgia: 5.06’
Previous record: 3.40’ during the October 15, 1947 hurricane (records since 1935.)

Wilmington, NC: 3.53’
Previous record 3.47’, during Hurricane Hazel on October 15, 1954 (records since 1935.)

Mayport, FL: 3.28’
Previous record: 2.47’, during Hurricane Jeanne on September 27, 2004 (records since 1928.)

Near-record high water levels were observed at three other stations:

At Charleston SC, the water level during the Saturday morning high tide was the third highest on record: 3.53’. The record: 6.76’ during Hurricane Hugo on September 21, 1989; second highest, 4.47’ during the August 11, 1940 hurricane (records since 1921.)

At Fernandina Beach, FL, the water level during Friday afternoon’s high tide was the second highest on record: 4.17’. The record: 6.91’ during the October 2, 1898 hurricane (records since 1897.)

At Springmaid Pier, SC the water level during Saturday afternoon’s high tide was the second highest on record: 2.66’. The record 3.65’, during the January 1, 1987 nor’easter (records since 1957.)


Figure 4. Multi-sensor analysis of precipitation for the 7-day period from 8:00 am EDT Sunday, October 2, to Sunday, October 9, 2016. Nearly all of the precipitation shown across the Southeast fell during Hurricane Matthew. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Torrential rains wallop unexpectedly large parts of the Carolinas and Virginia
Forecasters knew for days that extremely heavy rain was likely to develop on the north side of Matthew as it moved up the Southeast coast. As hurricanes move into the midlatitudes, they often interact with pre-existing frontal systems that intensify the rain-making processes on the poleward side of the storm. Matthew ended up generating torrential rain near the Southeast coast, as predicted, but it also produced record-smashing rainfall well inland and considerably further north than expected, especially over North Carolina and southeast Virginia. More than 880 rescues had taken place across North Carolina as of Sunday morning, according to Governor Pat McCrory.

Here are the highest storm totals observed in each state along Matthew’s path as of 11 am EDT Sunday:

Florida: 7.89”, Sanford/Orlando
Georgia: 17.49”, Savannah/Hunter Army Air Field
South Carolina: 14.04”, Beaufort MCAS
North Carolina: 15.65”, William O. Huske Locke 3
Virginia: 12.84”, 10 miles northwest of Chesapeake
Maryland: 5.52”, 6 miles south of Berlin
Delaware: 3.13”, Seaford


Figure 5.. A water rescue team member leads Derrick Williams out of the water at the on-ramp of the MLK Freeway after rescuing Williams from the flood waters caused by Hurricane Matthew on Saturday, October 8, 2016, in Fayetteville, NC. Image credit: Andrew Craft/The Fayetteville Observer via AP.

From Friday into Saturday, Savannah International Airport broke the city’s official 24-hour rainfall record of 11.44” on Sept. 17-18, 1928, according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. It’s quite possible that an even higher 24-hour reading will be confirmed from one of the other Savannah-area reporting stations, as suggested by the storm total above.

Norfolk, VA, received 7.44” of rain on Saturday, making it the city’s wettest October day on record (beating 6.23” from October 17, 1999). Little more than three months ago, Norfolk set its all-time July calendar-day rainfall record with 6.98” on the 31st.

Raleigh-Durham International Airport picked up 6.45” on Saturday, beating the area’s previous all-time calendar-day rainfall record of 5.96” set on October 1, 1929. Raleigh-area records extend back to 1887.

Perhaps the single most phenomenal record on Saturday was at Fayetteville, NC, where 14.00” of rain was reported on Saturday. This demolished the city’s previous all-time calendar-day record of 6.80” observed during Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. In fact, there are only four entire months in Fayetteville weather history that have received more rain than Fayetteville picked up in 24 hours on Saturday! Fayetteville records extend back to 1871. The flooding situation in the Fayetteville area was made even worse by very heavy rains observed in parts of the area during late September.

Record atmospheric moisture contributed to Matthew’s deluge
Several locations along Matthew’s path through the Southeast recorded incredibly high amounts of atmospheric moisture on Friday and Saturday. At least two sites had record amounts of precipitable water (the total amount of liquid water that would cover the ground over a given location if all the moisture in a column of air above was condensed). These readings are taken with radiosonde soundings (balloon-borne instrument packages) that have been conducted regularly since 1948.

Jacksonville, FL: 2.85” at 8 pm EDT Friday
Previous record: 2.82” on July 20, 1983

Charleston, SC: 2.93” at 2 am EDT Saturday (special sounding)
Previous record: 2.70” on August 15, 2010

October record (and 3rd highest in any month]: Newport/Cape Hatteras, NC: 2.85” at 8 pm EDT Saturday


Figure 6. A damaged home in Savannah, GA, is seen Sunday, October 9, 2016, after a tree split and fell through the roof and front wall early Friday morning as Hurricane Matthew approached. Homeowner Karen Currier said she and her husband were inside and escaped with a few scratches. Image credit: AP Photo/Kathleen Foody.

Matthew’s place in hurricane annals
Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) has assembled a handy list of the many records set during Matthew’s long life. Here are a few highlights:

Intensity: Matthew was the lowest-latitude Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Its strengthening of 80 mph in just 24 hours was the third fastest on record for the Atlantic, behind only Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007).

Longevity: Matthew maintained Category 4 or 5 strength for 102 hours, the longest such stretch on record for October in the Atlantic. Its 7.25 days as a major storm (Category 3 or stronger) is the fifth longest such period for any hurricane since satellite observations began in the Atlantic in 1966.

Landfall: Matthew is the first storm on record to make landfall as a major hurricane in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength in October are Matthew and last year’s Joaquin. Matthew’s landfall near Myrtle Beach made it the first hurricane to strike the U.S. Atlantic coast north of Georgia in October since Hazel (1954).


Figure 7. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Nicole as of 1745Z (1:45 pm EDT) Sunday, October 9, 2016. Image credit: CIRA/CSU/RAMMB.

A new lease on life for Nicole
Tropical Storm Nicole continues to languish in the open Atlantic. As of 11 am EDT Sunday, Nicole was nearly stationary, spinning about 575 miles south of Bermuda with top sustained winds of around 60 mph. As a blocking ridge to its north moves eastward, Nicole should begin moving north an at increasing rate over the next couple of days. By midweek, it will be over the record-warm waters of the subtropical North Atlantic, which helped boost Hurricane Gaston to Category 3 strength at latitude 30°N in late August. With wind shear over Nicole decreasing by midweek, the storm may a chance to regain much of the strength it had on Friday. The 12Z Sunday run of the HWRF, one of our best intensity models, brings Nicole back to Category 2 strength by late this week. Our best track models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) differ on whether Nicole will pass to the west or the east of Bermuda around Thursday. Given this uncertainty, as well as Nicole’s potential to intensify, Bermudians should monitor this storm closely.

We’ll be back with our next post on Monday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters




Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks so much for keeping us all informed.
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Matthew will likely be retired from the hurricane naming system it most certainly will be the only one this season unless there is still one last monster out there somewhere yet to come


Good afternoon Keep,

I don't know what the criteria is death wise in countries that participate but this was a comment from the Doc last week...

44. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
1:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2016
22 +
Quoting 24. islander101010:

why was gordon 1994 not retired in haiti it killed over 500 people verified maybe up to 2000? political red tape most likely.



Haiti never sends reps to the annual WMO meeting where names are retired. A rep of an affected nation has to request retirement in order for the name to be retired. I guess there is no travel budget for meteorologists in Haiti.

Jeff Masters
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1046

Quoting 689. BayFog:



Strong early season Pacific jet forecast to undercut and plow into the West Coast next week. Forecast here in the SF Bay Area calling for first soaking rains of the year from Thursday through the weekend with surface winds ramping up. Euro model even wetter than the GFS above which shows our area in the right entrance region of a 170 mph jet max. There may also be two EPac tropical systems out there which may enhance the available moisture and energy.


Been in the hospital for 10 days, just got home yesterday....hope Soo Cal can get some of that rainfall also! Last rain was a couple weeks back from decaying/unwinding moisture from a Pacific Hurricane whose name escapes me at the moment........but it was a nice 1.5".........Thanks for the new post guys!
Thanks!
Landfall: Matthew is the first hurricane on records to make landfall in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength are Matthew and last year Joaquin.

I thought Hurricane Andrew was a cat-4 or cat-5 when striking the Bahamas...Maybe I am not understanding the statement correctly..

Excerpt from Wiki...

At 2100 UTC on August 23, Andrew made landfall on Eleuthera with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h).[ The cyclone weakened further while crossing the Bahama Banks, and at 0100 UTC on August 24, Andrew hit the southern Berry Islands of the Bahamas with winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). As it crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the hurricane rapidly re-intensified as the eye decreased in size and its eyewall convection deepened. At 0840 UTC on August 24, Andrew struck Elliott Key with winds of 165 mph (266 km/h) and a pressure of 926 mbar (27.3 inHg). About 25 minutes after its first Florida landfall, Andrew hit just northeast of Homestead with a slightly lower pressure of 922 mbar (922 hPa; 27.2 inHg)
great update gents nice sunday afternoon read its all but in the books now with many weeks of work ahead for some

Flagler Beach is gone in fla that will take a bit to put back and make normal for sure if ever
Matthew and Nicole from 1800 UTC (Oct.4) until 1800 UTC (Oct.9). Wind shear product : CIMSS-TC.
Princeton NC no power no public water. National guard and local sherrif dept are going door to for evacuating south of me by about two miles . folks remember Floyd and are loading up and getting out. Tree and property damage is light. Several roads are flooded and washed out. Thank god itmis mid 60s here and not eighty or better like after Floyd.
Landfall: Matthew is the first hurricane on records to make landfall in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

I reckon there's a word like major missing?
seems everyone taking a break now as the storm has passed comments are slowed right down now
Quoting 11. EmsiNasklug:

Landfall: Matthew is the first hurricane on records to make landfall in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

I reckon there's a word like major missing?



Indeed it was! Fixed now--thanks for the catch.
Quoting 5. hydrus:

Landfall: Matthew is the first hurricane on records to make landfall in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength are Matthew and last year Joaquin.

I thought Hurricane Andrew was a cat-4 or cat-5 when striking the Bahamas...Maybe I am not understanding the statement correctly..

Excerpt from Wiki...

At 2100 UTC on August 23, Andrew made landfall on Eleuthera with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h).[ The cyclone weakened further while crossing the Bahama Banks, and at 0100 UTC on August 24, Andrew hit the southern Berry Islands of the Bahamas with winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). As it crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the hurricane rapidly re-intensified as the eye decreased in size and its eyewall convection deepened. At 0840 UTC on August 24, Andrew struck Elliott Key with winds of 165 mph (266 km/h) and a pressure of 926 mbar (27.3 inHg). About 25 minutes after its first Florida landfall, Andrew hit just northeast of Homestead with a slightly lower pressure of 922 mbar (922 hPa; 27.2 inHg)


Good point, hydrus. I'll check with Phil Klotzbach, as this is what's shown on his compendium (linked in our blog post). Thanks for calling this out.

Statements
3:12 PM EDT Sunday 09 October 2016
Frost advisory in effect for:
City of Toronto
Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to provide clear skies and temperatures close to or below the freezing mark tonight. Areas located adjacent to the Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair might be a little milder but locations inland can expect frost.
Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.

Frost advisories are issued when temperatures are expected to the reach freezing mark during the growing season, leading to potential damage and destruction to plants and crops.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
4:00 PM
Temperature:
53.4°F
Dewpoint:
32.7°F
Humidity:
45%
Wind:
NNW 17 gust 25 mph
Thanks for the update Gentlemen....
Landfall:Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength are Matthew and last year's Joaquin.

Dr. Masters and Bob, regarding the Bahamas and cat 4's...there have been many, many cat 4's that have struck the Bahamas between 1866 and Joaquin/Matthew. The 1926 Nassau and Great Miami Hurricanes did it, the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane did it, the 1929 Andros Island hurricane did it, the 1932 Bahamas hurricane did it, the 8th and 11th storms of 1933 did it, the 5th storm of 1935 did it, and there are probably a hundred others from then on up until Joaquin.

If you mean "cat 4's hitting the Bahamas during the month of October" that would be more accurate, but there have been countless cat 4's that have hit the Bahamas at any time of the year between 1866 and 2015.
For all those who don't understand, Jeff is saying that THE SAME HURRICANE HAS NEVER MADE LANDFALL ON ALL THREE NATIONS.
making some cranberry jam now
fresh oceanspray cranberries on sale 3 bags for 5 dollars
got 6 bags make that up should give me
10 maybe 12 small jars of jam for the winter stash
So the highest reported rainfall amount in FL is 7.89" and yet STS topped that at his house. Amazing how he always exceeds everyone else. His house is a weather magnet.
Quoting 12. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

seems everyone taking a break now as the storm has passed comments are slowed right down now


its been a long 2 too 3 weeks storm tracking with mat so every one needs at break


at lest now my sleep hrs will return too normal last night was my 1st good night sleep i had for some time tonight will be my 2nd even better night sleep
Right outside of Elizabeth City in NC. Power just came back on, aside from some minor flooding things are looking good here.
Jacob Wycoff ‏@4cast4you 31 minHá 31 minutos
Bomb squad called to Folly Beach, SC after #Matthew churns up Civil War era cannon balls. STORY -> http://m.live5news.com/live5news/db/330614/content /5gGDSWiJ … (📸: @LisaLive5)
There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert

An official vehicle navigates debris as it passes along Highway A1A after it was partially washed away by Hurricane Matthew, Oct. 7, in Flagler Beach, Florida
Quoting 18. Ryan1000:

Landfall:Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength are Matthew and last year's Joaquin.

Dr. Masters and Bob, regarding the Bahamas and cat 4's...there have been many, many cat 4's that have struck the Bahamas between 1866 and Joaquin/Matthew. The 1926 Nassau and Great Miami Hurricanes did it, the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane did it, the 1929 Andros Island hurricane did it, the 1932 Bahamas hurricane did it, the 8th and 11th storms of 1933 did it, the 5th storm of 1935 did it, and there are probably a hundred others from then on up until Joaquin.

If you mean "cat 4's hitting the Bahamas during the month of October" that would be more accurate, but there have been countless cat 4's that have hit the Bahamas at any time of the year between 1866 and 2015.


Yes, Phil Klotzbach must have meant "in October," although that was omitted from the PDF version that he's uploaded (see link in our post at "handy list"). I've gone ahead and changed this in our own post, and presumably it'll be corrected on the CSU list shortly. Thanks for flagging this.
so wish model runs did the best job in handeling mat ? i think that should be the next blog jeff or bob should do
Quoting 18. Ryan1000:

Landfall:Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength are Matthew and last year's Joaquin.

Dr. Masters and Bob, regarding the Bahamas and cat 4's...there have been many, many cat 4's that have struck the Bahamas between 1866 and Joaquin/Matthew. The 1926 Nassau and Great Miami Hurricanes did it, the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane did it, the 1929 Andros Island hurricane did it, the 1932 Bahamas hurricane did it, the 8th and 11th storms of 1933 did it, the 5th storm of 1935 did it, and there are probably a hundred others from then on up until Joaquin.

If you mean "cat 4's hitting the Bahamas during the month of October" that would be more accurate, but there have been countless cat 4's that have hit the Bahamas at any time of the year between 1866 and 2015.
Greetings Ryan..That is likely what he meant..Klotzbach knows his info to a tee...
WFMY News 2 ‏@WFMY 5 hHá 5 horas
Economic damage from Hurricane Matthew already near $6 billion
Even though Matthew's last advisory has been issued, the aftermath and cleanup is just beginning.

Matthew deserves retirement.
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 72.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 72.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast tonight, and the low is expected
to be absorbed within a frontal boundary on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
primarily to the southwest and west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NASA
Global Hawk aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force will continue over
portions of the Outer Banks tonight.

STORM SURGE: Dangerously high water levels over portions of the
Outer Banks will gradually subside overnight and early Monday.
Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: Life-threatening flooding will continue over portions
of eastern North Carolina that have received record rains from
Matthew. Consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for additional information and warnings.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States
during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Matthew. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brown

Quoting 25. bjrabbit:

There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert
Let me see if I have this right.  Economists have a miserable track record of predicting recessions and other economic events.  Despite that, you unquestioningly accept the arguments of a minority of economists who predict that reducing carbon emissions will bring some kind of undefined "chaos" (a prediction disputed by a large majority of economists) while rejecting climate models.  Did I get that right?
35. SLU
Quoting 5. hydrus:

Landfall: Matthew is the first hurricane on records to make landfall in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength are Matthew and last year Joaquin.

I thought Hurricane Andrew was a cat-4 or cat-5 when striking the Bahamas...Maybe I am not understanding the statement correctly..

Excerpt from Wiki...

At 2100 UTC on August 23, Andrew made landfall on Eleuthera with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h).[ The cyclone weakened further while crossing the Bahama Banks, and at 0100 UTC on August 24, Andrew hit the southern Berry Islands of the Bahamas with winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). As it crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the hurricane rapidly re-intensified as the eye decreased in size and its eyewall convection deepened. At 0840 UTC on August 24, Andrew struck Elliott Key with winds of 165 mph (266 km/h) and a pressure of 926 mbar (27.3 inHg). About 25 minutes after its first Florida landfall, Andrew hit just northeast of Homestead with a slightly lower pressure of 922 mbar (922 hPa; 27.2 inHg)


He meant to say in the month of October. Not overall. He left out October. He made reference to this in an earlier tweet last week so it is just a typographical error.
36. SLU
Quoting 35. SLU:



He meant to say in the month of October. Not overall. He left out October. He made reference to this in an earlier tweet last week so it is just a typographical error.






14L DEACTIVATE
I would like to take a moment to thank both Mr. Masters and Mr. Henson for their coverage of these storms, but I would also like to thank the folks here that post real time updates. It's so much easier to just come here and get the updates from all locations than it would be to try and follow all of the local stations. You guys are the best and I always try to lead people here while still advising them to follow their local stations. I'd like to thank the regulars here for being so gracious and tolerating us folks that only come here with spent nerves, during storms that affect us locally. Y'all are the best, truly. I hope this blog and comment section are always here. :)
Quoting 27. BobHenson:



Yes, Phil Klotzbach must have meant "in October," although that was omitted from the PDF version that he's uploaded (see link in our post at "handy list"). I've gone ahead and changed this in our own post, and presumably it'll be corrected on the CSU list shortly. Thanks for flagging this.

A little known October cat-3 that struck the Bahamas in 1933....The 1941 Florida Hurricane was major while moving through the Bahamas..Wiki excerpt again...

the smaller-than-average, fast-moving cyclone tracked over Cat Island in the Bahamas, where a weather station indicated a pressure of 28.48 inches of mercury (964 mb) inside the eye.The measurement coincided with light winds of 20 mph (32 km/h), meaning it was not in the exact center of the eye, so a recent reanalysis found the central pressure to be somewhat lower, at 962 mb (28.41 inHg).After striking Cat Island, the cyclone began a weakening trend and passed south of New Providence, seat of the Bahamian capital Nassau, early on October 6. At the time, the storm was still found to be a compact, well-developed hurricane....Link

1933 Cuba–Bahamas hurricane...Link

ACE for mat is 47.5725
Thank you for the Sunday update Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson.
A list of hurricanes with months and dates..This is for Andros Island only, but affected other islands in the region...Link
Quoting 40. thetwilightzone:

ACE for mat is 47.5725

Impressive almost as much as we had had over the season before Matthew.
Hmm..240hrs out i know but just for fun (For Now...)

Quoting 35. SLU:



He meant to say in the month of October. Not overall. He left out October. He made reference to this in an earlier tweet last week so it is just a typographical error.
Good afternoon Slu...I should have caught that when I read it. I posted the Andrew bit before I realized it was for October only..
Quoting 40. thetwilightzone:

ACE for mat is 47.5725


Season total so far?
Thanks for keeping us well informed
Matthew's windfield is huge.
Quoting 25. bjrabbit:

There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert


Bert, you have yet to learn the difference between weather and climate. Once you do, you can report back and we can have an informed discussion..
Quoting 25. bjrabbit:

There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert
Well, if Bert said it, ....... it must be true! ;-)
Quoting 47. Dakster:



Season total so far?
Around 110
Quoting 47. Dakster:



Season total so far?

107. This is 14 above the full-season average of 93.
From the last blog:

Quoting 696. ProPoly:



Ridiculous. The NHC nailed the track well inside their own margin of error and warned all hazards (potential major landfall, widespread surge, freshwater flooding). Anyone wanting to literally bet their life on calling the path of the eyewall down to 5-10 miles is an idiot who hopefully won't be in the position again, especially if they have dependents. If the eyewall was a distinct color in visible light people on the beach in Florida would have been able to see it inside the horizon in many places. That's how close a shave this was.


Agree completely. I'm in WPB. Luckily, Matt scooted a bit further east than forecast, but--at the height of the storm--you could still hear the surreal, freight-train rumble that accompanies a hurricane. I think the NHC did a great job. Especially with the warnings on flooding and storm surge. I'm also thankful that we, as the public, have access to models so we can visualize the potential shifts that could occur.

Speaking of models, the UKMET waivered maybe once or so in its forecast. From what I'm remembering, it projected the ride up the coast from pretty far out. I do agree that models 1-2 days out are best, but the UKMET stands out to me this time around.
Quoting 45. nygiants:

Hmm..240hrs out i know but just for fun (For Now...)




The models do seem to be onto something in that region. So I'd keep an eye on it.
Quoting 45. nygiants:

Hmm..240hrs out i know but just for fun (For Now...)


This aligns with the GFS ensembles, Cmc and it's ensembles. Also earlier GFS runs. Also the mjo and cckw is in place, so it's possible.
Quoting 53. HurricaneFan:


107. This is 14 above the full-season average of 93.
So we above seasonal and still have 50 or so days too go
Quoting 27. BobHenson:



Yes, Phil Klotzbach must have meant "in October," although that was omitted from the PDF version that he's uploaded (see link in our post at "handy list"). I've gone ahead and changed this in our own post, and presumably it'll be corrected on the CSU list shortly. Thanks for flagging this.

Its good that they fix it, it is misleading...October Cat-4 Hurricanes are obviously rare in October..For the Bahamas...
Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

So we above seasonal and still have 50 or so days too go
These next 50 days will be interesting and wouldn't discount a storm forming in December either considering we got a hurricane in January this year. If shear stays low like is predicted to we could easily see 2-3 more storms this year and possibly another hurricane due to the VERY warm SST's. I don't think 4 more storms is out of the realm of possibilities but we'd have to see something special for that to occur.
happy ending for the bald eagle this is relate too hurricane mat

Link
Quoting 59. masiello3:

These next 50 days will be interesting and wouldn't discount a storm forming in December either considering we got a hurricane in January this year. If shear stays low like is predicted to we could easily see 2-3 more storms this year and possibly another hurricane due to the VERY warm SST's. I don't think 4 more storms is out of the realm of possibilities but we'd have to see something special for that to occur. I think our last storm of the season will be Paula.

I agree, I feel this season may end late rather than soon. November, in rare cases, gets a major hurricane in the Caribbean, and with the low shear forecast that month in addition to the record high TCHP in the western Caribbean, we will have to look out. December also produces a storm from time to time, last named one we had was Olga 2007 which was a very deadly storm for Hispaniola. Still lots of season to go. This year is different from last year, last year we had an El Nino which pretty much shuts the Atlantic down after October 10 or so (with the exception of Kate of course).
For those of you here that think that the season is done as we go into the last Month of Hurricane season in November, think again. Not to many remember Hurricane Lili packing winds of 145 mph bearing down on south Louisiana. Then thanks to the miracle that there was some wind shear & dry air present over the northern Gulf Coast, all of us here in the central part of southern Louisiana was spared the widespread devastation that that storm would have brought at peak cat 4 intensity. Hurricane Lili could have been like or worst than Hurricane Katrina three years before her.
Link
Quoting 60. thetwilightzone:

happy ending for the bald eagle this is relate too hurricane mat

Link


How do you know the Eagle had a happy ending?
Quoting 55. FunnelVortex:



The models do seem to be onto something in that region. So I'd keep an eye on it.

Hope it is not a FLORIDA threat down the road :(
Quoting 62. gustavcane:

For those of you here that think that the season is done as we go into the last Month of Hurricane season in November, think again. Not to many remember Hurricane Lili packing winds of 145 mph winds bearing down on south Louisiana. Then thanks to the miracle that there was some wind shear & dry air present over the northern Gulf Coast, all of us here in the central part of southern Louisiana was spared the widespread devastation that that storm would have brought at peak cat 4 intensity. Hurricane Lili could have been like or worst than Hurricane Katrina three years before her.
Link
Lili occurred in late September-October?
I saw on TWC that some of the river flows in VA and NC are not due to peak until Monday or Tuesday, and will remain in flood until Thursday. Until that lot has subsided, it won't be clear quite how damaging this has been overall. Just glad for everyone that Matt never hit the coast with a proper landfall as a Cat 3 or 4: that really would have been devastation, I think.

Over here (in the UK) we are watching the tracks of the storm remnants of Matthew with more than casual interest. These storms may not bring the strongest winds but they do bring an awful lot of moisture and rain with them. We had terrible flooding in northern England last November and December, and I fear we may get a repeat performance this year. Nicole or its remnants may also head our way in about 8-10 days' time, just right to coincide with the peak of the Autumn spring tides (full moon on the 16th).

Anyways, very best wishes to you all from your friends and distant cousins in the UK. Hope the clear up goes well and you can stay safe during the floods as Matthew's worst comes to an end over the next few days.
other than that weird loop, models did pretty well through this 12-day rampage. I'll wait till the post report to see how bad or good they actually were.

good riddance to Matthew. Horrible storm, but telegraphed it was going to be a bad one even when it was just a pouch (another win for modeling there).

Quoting 25. bjrabbit:

There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert


Maybe you can wrap your brain around this analogy, but then again, maybe not. But let's give it a try..

When a baby is born:
(1) can you predict that it will increase in size, both in weight and height? = climate
(2) can you predict exactly how much bigger it is going to increase each day? = weather.
(3) are there some days the baby gets larger? some it doesn't? some it decreases (in weight usually)? = variation
(4) over time does it continue to get bigger? = overall trend.

Addendum:
(5) Can you predict the exact height and weight the baby will be as an adult? No, but can you predict what it most likely will fall between? = range and standard error.
Quoting 65. masiello3:

Lili occurred in late September-October?
Quoting 65. masiello3:

Lili occurred in late September-October?

yes it was in late September early October. I was thinking storm was in November.
Quoting 68. daddyjames:



Maybe you can wrap your brain around this analogy, but then again, maybe not. But let's give it a try..

When a baby is born:
(1) can you predict that it will increase in size, both in weight and height? = climate
(2) can you predict exactly how much bigger it is going to increase each day? = weather.
(3) are there some days the baby gets larger? some it doesn't? some it decreases (in weight usually)? = variation
(4) over time does it continue to get bigger? = overall trend.


And you know one day it will die of old age? I don't like your analogy... :)
Quoting 70. Dakster:



And you know one day it will die of old age? I don't like your analogy... :)


Dust to dust, my friend. :P
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Flagler Beach is gone in fla that will take a bit to put back and make normal for sure if ever
Faster than you'd imagine. Just got back this afternoon from a drive along hwy 87 (Texas), located on Bolivar Peninsula from High Island to Galveston. Was raked clean by hurricane Ike's 25ft storm surge. The rebuild in 8 years has been astounding. Looks like the wipeout NEVER happened.
73. THL3
Quoting 25. bjrabbit:

There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert


I totally agree.
Quoting 25. bjrabbit:

There was one very important thing learned from this storm...that no matter how much computing power we have available and no matter how smart we think our tracking algorithms are, we still can't accurately predict anything more than a day or two out.

Yet, we feel confident in predicting climate over the next century so that we waste trillions of dollars and wreak untold economic chaos.

Thanks Matthew for once again exposing the fact that man has yet to predict Mother Nature!!!!

Bert


Yes, very true. I think computing power is actually enough though with the scalability of current cloud computing. What is needed are more accurate real time sensors to collect data. Maybe drones and IoT will help that tremendously over the next decade to at least nail down forecasts to 72-100 hours like they do 24-36 hours now. Still, one really has to question the probability of verifying prognostications out 25,50, or 100 years about sea levels and temperatures. (Recall that a couple years back, NOAA had just a 90 day forecast for above avg activity go totally bust with the slowest season in decades.) At this time, it's more about using fear to influence politics and the flow of funding than anything else. They don't really care if they are accurate or not down the road after they get the power and coin.
If you are coming back to the Wilmington area from Charlotte, be careful! Several entrances/exits on 74 are impassable, and some rivers are very close to the bridge and are rising. Passing this down the grape vine.
Regardless of what you wish to believe, it is ongoing and will only continue.
Quoting 71. daddyjames:



Dust to dust, my friend. :P


Yeah, but I hope the climate survives longer is all.
One of my local mets is reporting on her Facebook page that the name "Matthew" has been retired and will never be used again. Jumping the gun a little bit.
Quoting 77. Dakster:



Yeah, but I hope the climate survives longer is all.


The climate will survive. The question ultimately is: will we, or other living things that we utilize, survive?

Predicting Planetary scale climate changes
Quoting 74. StormHype:



Yes, very true. I think computing power is actually enough though with the scalability of current cloud computing. What is needed are more accurate real time sensors to collect data. Maybe drones and IoT will help that tremendously over the next decade to at least nail down forecasts to 72-100 hours like they do 24-36 hours now. Still, one really has to question the probability of verifying prognostications out 25,50, or 100 years about sea levels and temperatures. (Recall that a couple years back, NOAA had just a 90 day forecast for above avg activity go totally bust with the slowest season in decades.) At this time, it's more about using fear to influence politics and the flow of funding than anything else. They don't really care if they are accurate or not down the road after they get the power and coin.

As said below predicting Long term trends are much more accurate than everyday variations. Heres a nice site for busting climate myths Link
Quoting 78. Sharkicane:

One of my local mets is reporting on her Facebook page that the name "Matthew" has been retired and will never be used again. Jumping the gun a little bit.

I agree although it is extremely likely Matthew will be retired considering it has killed almost 900 people and caused tens of billions of dollars in damages.
Now that the blog has quieted down, and discussions skirt the subject of climate change, I want to tell the following.

Last week, inspired by Matthew, I made a very crude one-dimensional model of a "perfect hurricane", trying different boundary conditions. Then I doubled the amount of CO2 and increased SST by two degrees Celsius.

- The pressure difference between storm center and environment increased by 35 % - 100 %. Wind speeds increased by 15 % - 40 %. Equivalent to a Patricia analog having pressure between 731 and 823 mbar, sustained winds between 245 and 300 mph.

- Cloud tops became colder by 30 - 50 Kelvin, reaching 3 - 6 kilometers higher.

Then I tried, what would happen, if Venus had water, and if it would rotate like Earth. The perfect hurricane would have 460 - 500 mph winds at the surface.

Perhaps I'll do a blog post about these experiments some day, if I'm not lazy :)
Quoting 79. daddyjames:



The climate will survive. The question ultimately is: will we, or other living things that we utilize, survive?


I should be have been more specific.. That is the question I was referring too.
Quoting 55. FunnelVortex:



The models do seem to be onto something in that region. So I'd keep an eye on it.
I agree. We saw what matthew did in a similar region in the face of shear. along with other, smaller storms who did something similar like nicole, hermine and earl.

Now I wunder if someone could make a picture of the skull in matthew saying "in your face shear!" To a wind gust. Imo, that would be hilarious!
the climate and the species living with in it will evolve. watching the sw carib this week.
Quoting 82. elioe:

Now that the blog has quieted down, and discussions skirt the subject of climate change, I want to tell the following.

Last week, inspired by Matthew, I made a very crude one-dimensional model of a "perfect hurricane", trying different boundary conditions. Then I doubled the amount of CO2 and increased SST by two degrees Celsius.

- The pressure difference between storm center and environment increased by 35 % - 100 %. Wind speeds increased by 15 % - 40 %. Equivalent to a Patricia analog having pressure between 731 and 823 mbar, sustained winds between 245 and 300 mph.

- Cloud tops became colder by 30 - 50 Kelvin, reaching 3 - 6 kilometers higher.

Then I tried, what would happen, if Venus had water, and if it would rotate like Earth. The perfect hurricane would have 460 - 500 mph winds at the surface.

Perhaps I'll do a blog post about these experiments some day, if I'm not lazy :)
Can you do an experiment of like having a pool of boilng hot water with some time of air vortex in the center, forming a mini hurricane. (The pool is surrounded by glass)☺

How about a meteor?
Quoting 76. daddyjames:

Regardless of what you wish to believe, it is ongoing and will only continue.
faster and faster
Per swflurker who pointed this out, Spgator has 14-6-2, that's where we stand now. This person could be the prediction winner unless more storms form
Ps. My thought and prayers for the hundreds of victims to Matthew
As a resident of Jacksonville since just after Dora, I want to thank Governor Scott for convincing a large majority of people in the threatened areas get out of Dodge, for running like crazy for 3 days straight to make sure things were set up and to also see inf communities needed help. Our mayor and Chief of Police did a hell of a job too, as did the fine people of the Jacksonville Electric Authority. Last, but not least, thank God for sparing Florida and more personally myself from the worst affects from this storm.

And Dr. Masters....who just before we shut it down Thursday evening, gave me a bit of hope that this evil bastard of a storm just might give us a pass.

Oh...wishcasters...shut the hell up. The reality sucks. YOU sit there and pray that your little cottage by the side of the road hasn't been destroyed by a hurricane. Then maybe you might see it from a different perspective.
Quoting 78. Sharkicane:

One of my local mets is reporting on her Facebook page that the name "Matthew" has been retired and will never be used again. Jumping the gun a little bit.

That's is certainly possible tho
Quoting 87. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster


Yep...
...and it looks like the blog is back to normal. Matt's weakening, and will likely be absorbed, and Nicole may hit Bermuda, but won't cause large damages.
now that the matthew related craziness has subsided...hey all! this has quickly become one of my favourite websites on the internet..i've learned an immense amount and it's great to have people to share my obsession of weather with! just started a long process of taking highschool courses i missed (science ones) so i can go to university for atmospheric science. another one of my passions is photography and would love to share a new website i made that has a bunch of my pictures (alot of which are weather/nature related). check it out, and let me know what you think if you feel so inclined. :)

Link











92. ThisIsNotSparta
7:47 PM EDT on October 09, 2016
...and it looks like the blog is back to normal.


NEHVAHH!!



Quoting 92. ThisIsNotSparta:

...and it looks like the blog is back to normal. Matt's weakening, and will likely be absorbed, and Nicole may hit Bermuda, but won't cause large damages.


Too early to say that yet. Would likely cause quite a bit of damage in Bermuda if it hit as a strong category 2/category 3 hurricane.
So, after 33 hrs, we finally got power back. 30 seconds later, THIS happened! Three shotgun blasts (sounds) and four surges that went THROUGH our bodies!

This is two feet off of my fence in our backyard. Sparks reached the back porch.

I was without power for over 24 hours in Raleigh, NC, but it was fixed an hour or so ago.
hey bob jeff and every one else

i noted some in on wikipedia with hurricane matthew and i wounder if any of you saw it yet

Drudge Report controversy
On October 6, the conservative news aggregator Drudge Report—run by Matt Drudge—headlined a five-word comment on Matthew: "Storm Fizzle? Matthew Looks Ragged!" which linked to a Miami Herald article.[86][87] Drudge later used Twitter to claim that the National Hurricane Center was lying to the public about the intensity of the storm, stating that measurements from Nassau, Bahamas, did not match the 165 mph (266 km/h) gusts listed in public advisories. The tweet implied that the hurricane was not as dangerous as it seemed and were rooted in the belief that climate change was a hoax perpetuated by the Government of the United States.[88] This came on the heels of radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh's claims of the same conspiracy.[89] The claims of conspiracy were posted as Matthew posed a dire threat to Florida's east coast and when residents across the state were being urged to evacuate immediately.[90] Drudge's commentary was quickly met with sharp condemnation and criticism from meteorologists and public officials. Democratic Representative Keith Ellison called the comments "irresponsible" and urged people to "not listen to this man."[88] Jason Samenow of The Washington Post described it as an "incredible and offensive accusation," and stated that it "may have introduced enough doubt to lead [residents] into a decision they will regret

from here

Link
Oh Nash...
Quoting 96. nash36:

So, after 33 hrs, we finally got power back. 30 seconds later, THIS happened! Three shotgun blasts (sounds) and four surges that went THROUGH our bodies!

This is two feet off of my fence in our backyard. Sparks reached the back porch.




That's just wrong on sooo many levels
On a happier note for me. Power just came back on about 30 min ago. Keeping fingers crossed that the shotgun is unloaded.
It does not seem likely that the 2016 hurricane season will be coming to a quick end. There are two areas to watch. 1 a large area of disturbed weather several miles southwest of the Cabo Verdes. The other area is the Hugh wave about to exit the African coast.
Good Bye Matthew, forever.
This was what Matthew did behind our house:



That's my house (the two upstairs windows showing)



GFS continues to advertise a direct strike from Nicole on the island of Bermuda as a major hurricane this Thursday.
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

GFS continues to advertise a direct strike from Nicole on the island of Bermuda as a major hurricane this Thursday.

it could well be the next major hurricane for the list this year Bermuda better be watchin
The NHC and Masters/Henson really failed on the forecast when it came to the impacts in southeast Virginia
Quoting 94. aquak9:

92. ThisIsNotSparta
7:47 PM EDT on October 09, 2016
...and it looks like the blog is back to normal.


NEHVAHH!!




Hey Wisconsin!
Quoting 105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it could well be the next major hurricane for the list this year Bermuda better be watchin


Is Nicole helping the ball to travel so well up in your area?
110. V26R
Hey Nash? You Got Mail!
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

GFS continues to advertise a direct strike from Nicole on the island of Bermuda as a major hurricane this Thursday.



Euro agrees:



What's bad is that both have Bermuda getting hit by the northeasten/eastern side of the system - the worst side of the storm. UKMET is to the east of Bermuda, so hoping the UKMET is right.
112. beell
Quoting 107. FSU2009:

The NHC and Masters/Henson really failed on the forecast when it came to the impacts in southeast Virginia


Use this map for impacts. Much more accurate.



Quoting 102. isothunder67:

Good Bye Matthew, forever.


See you in the afterlife?
Matthew's influence is yet to fully disappear. Lots of rivers in major flood stage or expected to be this week....








Video of vegetation damage in Baracoa, Cuba. Trees snapped in half:


Quoting 78. Sharkicane:

One of my local mets is reporting on her Facebook page that the name "Matthew" has been retired and will never be used again. Jumping the gun a little bit.


The odds are on her side for sure
118. IDTH
Damn, Nicole sure doesn't want to be in Matthew's shadow. I bet Bermuda is getting sick of Hurricanes.
Quoting 96. nash36:

So, after 33 hrs, we finally got power back. 30 seconds later, THIS happened! Three shotgun blasts (sounds) and four surges that went THROUGH our bodies!

This is two feet off of my fence in our backyard. Sparks reached the back porch.


Nash - I couldn't see or like link to pics. Just see gray circles with minus signs... it mighto be my tablet

Quoting 112. beell:



Use this map for impacts. Much more accurate.






I don't need maps, I know what was said, and I know what I've seen..had people baffled in my hometown cuz we were all told we dodged a bullet..not saying we expected a hurricane, but there were no tropical storm warnings even though we got tropical storm conditions
Jesus beell I just logged on.

Don't scare me like dat.


🙀
Quoting 107. FSU2009:

The NHC and Masters/Henson really failed on the forecast when it came to the impacts in southeast Virginia


I will say that what we experienced in Wilmington was not what I expected. I was surprised when we got the hurricane warnings. And even then, I was doubtful we would get hurricane force winds. I was well aware of this being a big flooding event. We got hit with hurricane force wind gusts and terrible flooding. This was a very hard hurricane to nail down for sure.
Quoting 75. win1gamegiantsplease:

If you are coming back to the Wilmington area from Charlotte, be careful! Several entrances/exits on 74 are impassable, and some rivers are very close to the bridge and are rising. Passing this down the grape vine.


Did you leave for the storm I guess?
Nathan you heard from tropicalanalystwx13 in the flood zone?
Quoting 22. thetwilightzone:



its been a long 2 too 3 weeks storm tracking with mat so every one needs at break


at lest now my sleep hrs will return too normal last night was my 1st good night sleep i had for some time tonight will be my 2nd even better night sleep


Thanks for sticking with us over here on the other side of the country
Quoting 78. Sharkicane:

One of my local mets is reporting on her Facebook page that the name "Matthew" has been retired and will never be used again. Jumping the gun a little bit.


Meteorologist Heather Sophia The NHC retired it. I don't personally retire it. Thanks!


Well, everyone makes mistakes. I don't have a FB account, I wish someone would nicely correct her. NHC would've replaced plenty more storms by now if they had the powers of retirement. Unfortunately/forturnately, it is outside of the NHC. I do think Matthew will be retired, but we won't find out until next year I believe.
131. beell
Quoting 120. FSU2009:



I don't need maps, I know what was said, and I know what I've seen..had people baffled in my hometown cuz we were all told we dodged a bullet..not saying we expected a hurricane, but there were no tropical storm warnings even though we got tropical storm conditions


Winds were pretty gusty. Don't know how widespread the "sustained" winds were. Just thought that to pin this on the NHC and Dr. M as a failed forecast to be a little harsh. Throw NWS Wakefield under the bus also-if that is the case.

Just kinda teasing you about the small geographic distance between NE NC and SE VA.
:)


Link
Quoting 128. BaltimoreBrian:

Nathan you heard from tropicalanalystwx13 in the flood zone?


He sent me a pic of his broken weeping willow and that his ditches were filled with water. Want me to check up on him, tell him Brianna is worried? :P
Quoting 129. hurrikanehunter14:



Thanks for sticking with us over here on the other side of the country


welcome
Been hearing a lot of bad stories from North Carolina buds Nathan.
Quoting 131. beell:



Winds were pretty gusty. Don't know how widespread the "sustained" winds were. Just thought that to pin this on the NHC and Dr. M as a failed forecast to be a little harsh. Throw NWS Wakefield under the bus also-if that is the case.

Just kinda teasing you about the small geographic distance between NE NC and SE VA.
:)


Link



I'm on the Delmarva Peninsula, a good 2 hours from NE NC, we had no warning, don't need your help with the geography, it was a failure by the forecasters..just look at Va Beach and Norfolk, well to the southwest of me
Quoting 119. snow2fire:



Nash - I couldn't see or like link to pics. Just see gray circles with minus signs... it mighto be my tablet




Me neither, I'm on a desktop. Does seem to happen a fair bit lately for me. Even without seeing them, sounds a bit scary!
137. beell
Quoting 135. FSU2009:



I'm on the Delmarva Peninsula, a good 2 hours from NE NC, we had no warning, don't need your help with the geography, it was a failure by the forecasters..just look at Va Beach and Norfolk, well to the southwest of me


Ok. Not that it matters-but that sounds better.



Quoting 137. beell:



Ok. Not that it matters-but that sounds better.






Just curious, what do you think that map is showing you?
Quoting 102. isothunder67:

Good Bye Matthew, forever.

For the U.S...Matthew will likely be a strong storm for some region on the other side of the Atlantic.
Buoy 300 NM SSE of Bermuda...

Location: 27.537N 62.945W
Date: Mon, 10 Oct 2016 01:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120) at 17.5 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 17.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec

Average Wave Period: 8.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (179)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Dew Point: 72.3 F
Water Temperature: 81.9 F
Quoting 137. beell:



Ok. Not that it matters-but that sounds better.






"It sounds better"?? Wasn't looking for your approval either, I know what I saw, and you can look at maps
143. beell
Quoting 138. FSU2009:



Just curious, what do you think that map is showing you?


Sustained tropical storm and hurricane force winds.

Look, I already agreed with you when you changed your original statement to "a failure by the forecasters".
I'm sorry VA got robbed of a TS warning.

This conversation has reached it limit of value. I concede.
Quoting 107. FSU2009:

The NHC and Masters/Henson really failed on the forecast when it came to the impacts in southeast Virginia
Why do you say that.? Here is an excerpt from the last blog. Maybe you failed to read it correctly..

Hurricane Matthew made landfall near 11 am EDT Saturday about 25 miles northeast of Charleston, South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. During the past two high tide cycles, Matthew has pushed a historic and destructive storm surge to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, bringing coastal water levels that were the highest to third highest ever observed. The powerful hurricane, diminished to Category 2 strength with 105 mph winds early Saturday morning, nonetheless had a very large area of strong winds that were able to pile up a massive dome of water that was focused by the arc-shaped curve of the coast into a record-height storm surge. As of 8 am EDT Sunday, October 9, here were the approximate peak storm surges observed over the preceding 48 hours at all the tide gauges with a long-term period of record along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia (storm surge is the added water produced by a storm atop the normal tidal cycles):


atthew%u2019s just-offshore track may have spared the Southeast from billions of dollars in wind damage, but it didn%u2019t keep the hurricane from packing a phenomenal punch in the form of water. Like several other U.S. hurricanes in the last decade, including Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), Matthew delivered a much more severe storm surge than one might expect from its landfall strength, thanks to the water built up by much higher winds earlier in its life offshore. Matthew%u2019s track along the concave Southeast coast also enhanced its ability to produce high surge. Major storm surge was reported as far north as the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia, which received an unexpectedly powerful blow from Matthew that also included tropical-storm-strength sustained winds (including a peak gust of 75 mph at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach) and torrential rain.
Quoting 123. Astrometeor:



I think a few of those clumps are gathering an army with the dust bunnies in select, elite corners of my college dorm room.


I'm probably frayed from the last three days, but I have had ENOUGH of the media and the political lunatics. MSNBC- "The Place for Lunatics." If ANYONE believes in President's to make their lives better, than they are living in a fantasy world.

I challenge you;

Has a President really affected your life in any way, shape or form? I'll answer- Not ME!!! You know why? Because I live just fine, regardless of the Federal Government. YOU make your lives, or break your lives. If the President disappeared, would that REALLY affect anyone?

No, it wouldn't. He/She is nothing more than a narcissistic figurehead, and yet, we continue to vote for douche-canoes.
146. IDTH
Quoting 145. nash36:



I'm probably frayed from the last three days, but I have had ENOUGH of the media and the political lunatics. MSNBC- "The Place for Lunatics." If ANYONE believes in President's to make their lives better, than they are living in a fantasy world.

I challenge you;

Has a President really affected your life in any way, shape or form? I'll answer- Not ME!!! You know why? Because I live just fine, regardless of the Federal Government. YOU make your lives, or break your lives. If the President disappeared, would that REALLY affect anyone?

No, it wouldn't. He/She is nothing more than a narcissistic figurehead, and yet, we continue to vote for douche-canoes.

I won't add much other than, this is basically my older brother's stance on this joke of an election. I just believe we deserve better and a higher standard but I guess that's too much to ask for. Anyway, that's all of me today.
Quoting 144. hydrus:

Why do you say that.? Here is an excerpt from the last blog. Maybe you failed to read it correctly..

Hurricane Matthew made landfall near 11 am EDT Saturday about 25 miles northeast of Charleston, South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. During the past two high tide cycles, Matthew has pushed a historic and destructive storm surge to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, bringing coastal water levels that were the highest to third highest ever observed. The powerful hurricane, diminished to Category 2 strength with 105 mph winds early Saturday morning, nonetheless had a very large area of strong winds that were able to pile up a massive dome of water that was focused by the arc-shaped curve of the coast into a record-height storm surge. As of 8 am EDT Sunday, October 9, here were the approximate peak storm surges observed over the preceding 48 hours at all the tide gauges with a long-term period of record along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia (storm surge is the added water produced by a storm atop the normal tidal cycles):


atthew%u2019s just-offshore track may have spared the Southeast from billions of dollars in wind damage, but it didn%u2019t keep the hurricane from packing a phenomenal punch in the form of water. Like several other U.S. hurricanes in the last decade, including Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), Matthew delivered a much more severe storm surge than one might expect from its landfall strength, thanks to the water built up by much higher winds earlier in its life offshore. Matthew%u2019s track along the concave Southeast coast also enhanced its ability to produce high surge. Major storm surge was reported as far north as the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia, which received an unexpectedly powerful blow from Matthew that also included tropical-storm-strength sustained winds (including a peak gust of 75 mph at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach) and torrential rain.



Hydrus, all of that supports his argument. "Unexpectedly" in the second paragraph. Both paragraphs are catalogs of reports AFTER the storm began influencing Virginia. You have to go back into earlier blogs if you want to see whether or not Masters correctly forecasted for VA or not. Also have to look at NWS and WPC archives to see if anyone called it.

I do agree with beell's point of the unnecessary harshness towards Masters & NHC.
Quoting 126. IDTH:


I think I just threw up inside of my own mouth.


I'm there with you on that...

Quoting 146. IDTH:


I won't add much other than, this is basically my older brother's stance on this joke of an election. I just believe we deserve better and a higher standard but I guess that's too much to ask for. Anyway, that's all of me today.


I'm just done. No president has ever directly helped me or hurt me, so I honestly don't care.. I am the one in control of how my life goes;×not some dick who pretends to care. Fact is, there no one alive who actually cares, DEEPLY cares, about over 300 million people that they don't know.

It's physiologically impossible.
I don't live near anywhere to speak of but I was watching out for my wu friend ECF aka hurigo, and I know there were mentions of del Marva and areas of Chesapeake Bay in either NHC advisories or local forecasts. If someone missed it, then maybe s/he spent too much time reading at wu and did not check the official local forecasts. NWS did a bang-up job on this storm. Glad it's over. I'm sure those at NWS are also.
:)

Ps. Anybody who can't handle a little TS force wind is a weenie.
Quoting 136. mitthbevnuruodo:



Me neither, I'm on a desktop. Does seem to happen a fair bit lately for me. Even without seeing them, sounds a bit scary!

I think it's content linked to Google+ which means you have to be logged in to Google+ to view it. I see the same thing you do on my desktop and just scroll on by since I'm not on Google+ and have no plans to do so.
Quoting 150. Barefootontherocks:

I don't live near anywhere to speak of but I was watching out for my wu friend ECF aka hurigo, and I know there were mentions of del Marva and areas of Chesapeake Bay in either NHC advisories or local forecasts. If someone missed it, then maybe s/he spent too much time reading at wu and did not check the official local forecasts. NWS did a bang-up job on this storm. Glad it's over. I'm sure those at NWS are also.
:)

Ps. Anybody who can't handle a little TS force wind is a weenie.
maybe a big clump weenie
Just got back to my home in Sunset Beach, NC. Huge storm surge, lots of wind damage, incredible rains, hundreds of water rescues -- and the threat of flooding continues. I've got thousands of dollars of damage to my home. How and why did the NWS and NHC get this so wrong? We were told again and again of an 8 PM arrival (close to low tide), and suddenly it was there at 3 PM (close to high tide). We were told it would turn sharply East into the Atlantic but it pushed right through NC and VA. How can millions upon millions of dollars worth of experts and equipment be so totally wrong and still keep picking up their government paychecks? Please spare me the "it's not an exact science" answer. I understand. But when we get down to 12- and 6-hour time scales, it should be one heck of a lot more accurate than this. I think the entire federal weather reporting bureaucracy owes the American taxpayers a detailed explanation for why they let us down so badly regarding Matthew. This storm was a disaster.
good bad beell


Hydrus, all of that supports his argument. "Unexpectedly" in the second paragraph. Both paragraphs are catalogs of reports AFTER the storm began influencing Virginia. You have to go back into earlier blogs if you want to see whether or not Masters correctly forecasted for VA or not. Also have to look at NWS and WPC archives to see if anyone called it.

I do agree with beell's point of the unnecessary harshness towards Masters & NHC.



This also supports the the fact that they were not hiding anything. This was not an ordinary storm, and some deeper understanding about what happened with this system should be considered. The EURO, which is held with great regard to storm forecasting blew it Here is the 00z run, was close with the distance and track up until it gets to South Carolina, then blows it completely .I believe they forecast it well enough for people in Virginia to realize they would receive impacts from this storm. The statement from 2009 is an opinion more than truth. I read the past blogs, and feel certain that if I lived in SE Virginia, I would have taken action to protect my property.

Euro at 00z October -7..48 and 72 hours out..






Former Major Matthew...

Off to the Maritimes.

Good riddance.

The focus shifts to recovery.

Rest, sleep and being careful in the aftermath is critical for those impacted,and those responding.

Help from around the nation is mobilizing a massive response.

Assessments are being flown by high altitude manned flights and other resources.

We can do much more together.





Louisiana National Guard deploys to Florida, South Carolina after Hurricane Matthew

Published On: Oct 09 2016 09:26:21 AM EDT



PINEVILLE, La. -
Louisiana National Guardsmen departed for Florida and South Carolina Saturday morning to help out after Hurricane Matthew.

The Louisiana National Guard sent eight aircraft to facilitate relief. Four of those aircraft flew out of Esler Field.

The call for assistance came on Tuesday, and by Tuesday night a team of volunteers was put together.

South Carolina needed the UH-72 helicopters for their surveillance ability. The bird's-eye view will give an idea of the state's devastation. Two Black Hawks helicopters also took off from Esler.

Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe a big clump weenie
Is that something like a foot-long hot dog?


My view on the Norfolk - Hampton Roads flooding is that the Navy is in the expansion business. :)
Gonna be sad for many to see what happens with hurricane insurance coverage when insurance companies start separating out the "storm surge" from the rain caused flash floods and the river and stream floods which probably have not peaked yet.
Quoting 153. haggler:

the storm did exactly what has happened in the past it was forecasted to do exactly what it did only difference was the cold front that pick it up turned it into a rain dumper unfortunately over your head it was told to expect weather and lots and lots of rain ok so a cold front caused it to dump further in land but that is something that has to be seen happening in order to understand the effects and it was expected that matt would ogf been pushed out by the front and loop it out but instead it got absorbed and track e ne up and out
Quoting 86. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


How about sharks? Can you add sharks to the model?
Quoting 149. nash36:



I'm just done. No president has ever directly helped me or hurt me, so I honestly don't care.. I am the one in control of how my life goes;×not some dick who pretends to care. Fact is, there no one alive who actually cares, DEEPLY cares, about over 300 million people that they don't know.

It's physiologically impossible.


And this attitude is why we are where we are.


A tree and power lines blown over by Hurricane Matthew lay across a road on St. Simons Island, Georgia on Saturday





Quoting 127. hurrikanehunter14:



Did you leave for the storm I guess?


No, this is strictly being passed down.
Quoting 159. Barefootontherocks:

Gonna be sad for many to see what happens with hurricane insurance coverage when insurance companies start separating out the "storm surge" from the rain caused flash floods and the river and stream floods which probably have not peaked yet.


I don't think surge is covered by hurricane insurance. Flood insurance would be needed.


Charleston
Bermuda watch out!
Quoting 128. BaltimoreBrian:

Nathan you heard from tropicalanalystwx13 in the flood zone?


Not sure how close he is to the NE CFR, think he is in inland Pender Co
Nicole

Quoting 165. SunnyDaysFla:



I don't think surge is covered by hurricane insurance. Flood insurance would be needed.
Really? That's surprising. I know it works that way for tornado / wind damage. Only way you have water damage coverage is if the wind rips your roof and water gets into your home as a result. Add: Doesn't matter how many days straight the sky poured rain.
153. haggler
3:49 AM GMT on October 10, 2016

"This storm was a disaster." So very true. And the real disaster is the recovery time for all affected. Sad. Earthshaking. Life-changing. All of these. Sincerely sorry your home is weather-damaged. A "perfect" forecast would not have changed that. The storm would have been the same regardless of the forecast.

Add: Ps. I see on a map Sunset Beach, NC is almost at the SC border. Far southeast part of NC.
Quoting 168. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not sure how close he is to the NE CFR, think he is in inland Pender Co


If memory serves me, he lives in Rocky Point, NC, (for the blog) which is just north of Wilmington.
Don't know about y'all, but I was fascinated to watch the evolution of the EWRC which occurred as The storm passed by Palm Beach. At the most opportune time, Matthew seemed to draw dry offshore air into the south side of the circulation, and thus, was unable to complete the cycle. Knowing that completion would have meant an expanded windfield, likely bringing hurricane force winds farther onshore in Central Florida. Not only was I thrilled to witness the phenomenon, but it meant the Matt would not be a 140 mph storm when it reached our latitude. What a good turn of events for Florida. Any thoughts?
Brian, he definitely watched the debate, judging from his Twitter feed. So I would assume he's doing alright. :)

Quoting 171. Barefootontherocks:

153. haggler
3:49 AM GMT on October 10, 2016

"This storm was a disaster." So very true. And the real disaster is the recovery time for all affected. Sad. Earthshaking. Life-changing. All of these. Sincerely sorry your home is weather-damaged. A "perfect" forecast would not have changed that. The storm would have been the same regardless of the forecast.


Now THIS I can get behind.
149. nash36
3:38 AM GMT on October 10, 2016
I do not do politics here but...here it goes.

I do not see how physiology applies to the statement you made. Human physiology is the study of how the human body functions. This includes the mechanical, physical, bioelectrical, and biochemical functions of humans , I care deeply about people, and my physiology at this point is sufficient to do so...Your post implies that the president is a dick, and the decisions made by him have not affected you..I find this realistically impossible if you live in the U.S.A..We all live the after effects of other people old decisions...This is a fact.
Quoting 153. haggler:

Just got back to my home in Sunset Beach, NC. Huge storm surge, lots of wind damage, incredible rains, hundreds of water rescues -- and the threat of flooding continues. I've got thousands of dollars of damage to my home. How and why did the NWS and NHC get this so wrong? We were told again and again of an 8 PM arrival (close to low tide), and suddenly it was there at 3 PM (close to high tide). We were told it would turn sharply East into the Atlantic but it pushed right through NC and VA. How can millions upon millions of dollars worth of experts and equipment be so totally wrong and still keep picking up their government paychecks? Please spare me the "it's not an exact science" answer. I understand. But when we get down to 12- and 6-hour time scales, it should be one heck of a lot more accurate than this. I think the entire federal weather reporting bureaucracy owes the American taxpayers a detailed explanation for why they let us down so badly regarding Matthew. This storm was a disaster.
Yes, if it's on the news or internet it has to be true.
Might want to take some time one day to maybe check things out for yourself instead of believing everything you read or here.
I was at the local Walmart on Thursday last week, (Naples,FL) and couldn't understand why is was so crowded with people buying water and canned goods. Took me till tonight to figure it out when I watched a show I DVR'ed last week and there was a crawl on the screen that said Matthew would be the closest to us Thursday night with 135 MPH winds. Didn't specify they would be almost 150 miles away!
If you would have checked the NHC predictions for NC, they warned about major problems!
BTW, the storms center never came close to VA!


Quoting 153. haggler:

Just got back to my home in Sunset Beach, NC. Huge storm surge, lots of wind damage, incredible rains, hundreds of water rescues -- and the threat of flooding continues. I've got thousands of dollars of damage to my home. How and why did the NWS and NHC get this so wrong? We were told again and again of an 8 PM arrival (close to low tide), and suddenly it was there at 3 PM (close to high tide). We were told it would turn sharply East into the Atlantic but it pushed right through NC and VA. How can millions upon millions of dollars worth of experts and equipment be so totally wrong and still keep picking up their government paychecks? Please spare me the "it's not an exact science" answer. I understand. But when we get down to 12- and 6-hour time scales, it should be one heck of a lot more accurate than this. I think the entire federal weather reporting bureaucracy owes the American taxpayers a detailed explanation for why they let us down so badly regarding Matthew. This storm was a disaster.




Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that an above-average number of tropical cyclones are most likely in the Australian region and Northwestern sub-region for 2016%u201317. All other regions are likely to have a near average number of tropical cyclones.
The Australian region has a 67% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 33% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coastline in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of an above average season at 59%. The chance of a below average season is 41%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 63% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 37% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern sub-region effect coastal areas at some stage in their life cycle. Outlook accuracy in this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In an average year the Northern region typically experiences three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy in this region is very low.

The Eastern region outlook also indicates a near average tropical cyclone season is most likely, with a 58% chance of above average and 42% chance of below average numbers. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy in this region is low.

Newly released Australian Bureau of Meteorology App.
Quoting 174. Astrometeor:

Brian, he definitely watched the debate, judging from his Twitter feed. So I would assume he's doing alright. :)



Now THIS I can get behind.

I've been in contact with Cody and he's alright but his area definitely sustained damage. Street lights were bent, trees and power lines are down, siding was ripped off, a tree almost hit his room, and there was of course flooding in the area.

BTW, I'm uploading my chase footage from Matthew. What an intense experience it was and it made me more sensitive for what people deal with in hurricanes.
Hurricane Matthew toll in Haiti rises to 1,000, dead buried in mass graves



Haiti started burying some of its dead in mass graves in the wake of Hurricane Matthew, a government official said on Sunday, as cholera spread in the devastated southwest and the death toll from the storm rose to 1,000 people.
Taking a week from weather. Goodbye guys.
Quoting 165. SunnyDaysFla:



I don't think surge is covered by hurricane insurance. Flood insurance would be needed.
you are right, you must have flood inshurence to be covered for rising water of any kink.
Princeton nc(27569), flooding from neuse 2miles south is as bad as advertised. spent yesterday helping people move out . thanks to national guardsmen. power came back after flood areas cut dead. no county water. be aware looters are out and about , some by boat. all my neighbors are armed to the teeth and mad as hell. new motto is you loot we shoot.
More than 1,000 people dead in Haiti, 19 dead in the USA. :(
good/morning cholera in haiti again? volunteer workers also better watch out for zika
Good morning abroad from sunny but quite cold Germany. I'm sorry to read about all the damage some of you suffered from Matthew. And the bad news from Haiti are off scale anyway :-(

Here is typhoon Songda (I think currently Cat 3), and the track forecast below looks like to send it all across the ocean towards the Pacific Northwest?




Songda (saved).

Meanwhile Africa still delivers some more moisture for the Atlantic:

BTW, CIMSS Satellite blog got a new article with visualization of Matthew's record Total Precipitable Water (TPW), as mentioned in the blog entry:

Hurricane Matthew: heavy rainfall and flooding across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic US
October 9th, 2016



Have a smooth as possible start into the new week, everyone.
Quoting 173. Look2thesky:

Don't know about y'all, but I was fascinated to watch the evolution of the EWRC which occurred as The storm passed by Palm Beach. At the most opportune time, Matthew seemed to draw dry offshore air into the south side of the circulation, and thus, was unable to complete the cycle. Knowing that completion would have meant an expanded windfield, likely bringing hurricane force winds farther onshore in Central Florida. Not only was I thrilled to witness the phenomenon, but it meant the Matt would not be a 140 mph storm when it reached our latitude. What a good turn of events for Florida. Any thoughts?

Yes, it was with great relief that we saw the EWRC fail and the storm center stay less than one degree longitude offshore when it was at our latitude 26.4. Otherwise, there would have been a very different story for Beautiful New Smyrna Beach which is just north of Canaveral and south of Daytona. As it was, we had fences down sporadic shingles blown off, power outages, and lots and lots of smaller branches, leaves, and some trees down.
Everyone here knows we dodged a bullet and thanking our lucky stars.

p.s. I suspect it was not only dry air but also proximity to land that kept the big engine from kicking into the next gear. Has anyone posted a victory for GFS yet? Oh sure...that must have been days ago. Have been in the "cane bubble" since Thursday! On my phone sometime around 4 a.m. Friday saw 57mph sustained and 92mph gusts in our local wind report on WUground. Right around the time Matthew was at 26.4N 80.5W if memory serves me.
189. elioe
locally still humid and warm. you'd think with the excessively warm nw carib and this humid air mass there will be at least one more. good luck all
gfs long range likes a halloween scenario
Quoting 189. elioe:


The western carribbean is still ripe with heat.
Quoting 183. number4steel:

Princeton nc(27569), flooding from neuse 2miles south is as bad as advertised. spent yesterday helping people move out . thanks to national guardsmen. power came back after flood areas cut dead. no county water. be aware looters are out and about , some by boat. all my neighbors are armed to the teeth and mad as hell. new motto is you loot we shoot.


Apparently looting is also the biggest problem in the Savannah area.
Quoting 188. Chicklit:


Yes, it was with great relief that we saw the EWRC fail and the storm center stay less than one degree longitude offshore when it was at our latitude 26.4. Otherwise, there would have been a very different story for Beautiful New Smyrna Beach which is just north of Canaveral and south of Daytona. As it was, we had fences down sporadic shingles blown off, power outages, and lots and lots of smaller branches, leaves, and some trees down.
Everyone here knows we dodged a bullet and thanking our lucky stars.

p.s. I suspect it was not only dry air but also proximity to land that kept the big engine from kicking into the next gear. Has anyone posted a victory for GFS yet? Oh sure...that must have been days ago. Have been in the "cane bubble" since Thursday! On my phone sometime around 4 a.m. Friday saw 57mph sustained and 92mph gusts in our local wind report on WUground. Right around the time Matthew was at 26.4N 80.5W if memory serves me.
I felt the same sense of relief from the EWRC, the dry air ingestion, and the small yet significant right track adjustments. Had all the downed limbs and debris piled up by yesterday for collection. Inspected the roof and found no damage. In the back yard, the neighbor's fence came down, we spoke with her, her husband is serving in Afghanistan ...just her and her small son. We propped her fence back up with rebar and bamboo until she can get it repaired. My employer was kind enough to give me time off to prepare and clean-up. It was no vacation!
Quoting 189. elioe:


Here is a wave coming off Africa with some potential. The models are picking up on a possible system to develop in the Western Caribbean before this wave gets into our neck of the woods..Its wait and see...

Quoting 195. hydrus:

Here is a wave coming off Africa with some potential. The models are picking up on a possible system to develop in the Western Caribbean before this wave before neck of the woods..Its wait and see...



Otto?
everyones saying how lucky we were here in e cen florida. i m not so sure. we were unlucky. usually the monster hurricanes usually stay well offshore e.cen fl. and north florida. matthew was a freak to get this close.
I feel guilty every time I hit "+" on these things. We need a "sorrow" button!
A word on insurance.

I got pretty good with insurance as my was damaged by Rita, (a tree fell through a bedroom and the roof was damaged by wind.) Humberto, (a few trees down ) and Ike, (30 inches of water)

I had Allstate wind storm and National Flood insurance via Allstate at the time.

Read your policy! I know it is painful. Read it anyway. When you read it, you will find that there are things that are not in the paper you received that make a big difference in you money.

My policy had loss of use. I could have rented another house, if I could have found one, and waited for a general contractor to repair my home.

These things are pretty universal and you should do them.

1. Understand that the first, second third and fourth number you receive from your adjuster is just the number you receive before the next number you receive. Document all damage, I mean everything down to the chewed off pencils in that desk you were going to throw away.

2. The insurance company should put your house back the way it was or better, not the way it was or not quite as good. If the numbers are off, tell them to hire the general contractor to fix the house.

3. Document all, I mean all of the time you spend working on your house, cutting up trees, dragging furniture out, and so on. They are required to pay you for it. Typically minimum wages, so be sure and document the time like minimum wage type people were doing the work.

4. Trees are generally handled different than house damage. However, if the tree hit the house, it is classified and the damage from it is handled under the house damage. If you let a general contractor handle the entire situation he may be able to bury the tree clean up in the house repair. In my case, (I cleaned up my own trees and had them sawn into 3500 board feet of lumber) there were many large trees that had to be removed before anyone, even a general contractor could get to the house to repair it. So if Allstate had not had a rider paying for trees, we could have wrapped the cost of the tree removal into the home repair.

On flood insurance.

1. Everything not inside is not covered. I.E. My lawn mower was in a shed with a door on it, my cousins next door was on his porch. Mine was covered his was not. Out buildings are not covered. Sewer systems may or may not be covered, same with water wells. However, a lot of this one might get help from FEMA with.

2 There is no loss of use coverage with the Flood Insurance program. During the time you do not have use of your home you will need assistance. FEMA via HUD has assistance, take it.

3. All contents are depreciated with flood insurance. Claim everything. Take pictures of everything put it into a spreadsheet line by line. My content claim took months to prepare and was well in excess of a thousand items. Paper clip, paper, extension cords, 4 inch crescent wrenches, (I loved that cute little thing and it never worked the same afterwards.)

4. Neither you not your adjuster, nor your contractor will get it right the first time. That is why they have addendums.

MOST IMPORTANT!!!

The first adjuster you see will not be the last adjuster you see. He, she will be under a lot of pressure and may not know what they are doing.
Smile and wave, smile and wave. Just becuase what they have said, or given you is wrong or unacceptable is irrelevant, just smile and wave. Then quietly file another addendum.


Good luck

Quoting 196. ThisIsNotSparta:


Otto?
Quoting 196. ThisIsNotSparta:


Otto?
The NHC has not mentioned the African wave yet. Nicole is the only system being watched officially.
i think the halloween storm more likely develops from a combo. a weak tropical wave, monsoon trough, and maybe a stalled out front. they could consolidate in the NW carib..
Quoting 198. NEFLWATCHING:

I feel guilty every time I hit "+" on these things. We need a "sorrow" button!

Yes, please. Exactly my feelings.
203. MahFL
Quoting 183. number4steel:

new motto is you loot we shoot.


That's not exactly a new motto.
Also you can't legally shoot people if they are just stealing stuff. You can only legally shoot people if they are threatening your life or actually damaging property. Also might be a good idea to retain a good lawyer.
If anyone on here knows how Summerhaven (just north of Marineland) fared, please pass on info. Coworker here is not at work, have not heard how they are. TIA
GFS blows Nicole into a very large hurricane in about four days, with Bermuda being hit...

Good morning,

My power came back on late last night. Thank you Duke Energy!!

Yesterday I was in Northern New Hanover County and saw Water Rescue teams from Denver, NC. I went to each responder to shake their hands and thank them.

Neuse River might break a record later this week



Cape fear River near Burgaw

Quoting 182. Tampa969mlb:

you are right, you must have flood inshurence to be covered for rising water of any kink.


And for properties deemed in a 'flood zone', flood insurance can not be purchased. Many, many properties affected by Matthew are a total loss.
We in Bermuda getting ready for our annual hit! this will be the 4th within 3 years!
Quoting 188. Chicklit:


Yes, it was with great relief that we saw the EWRC fail and the storm center stay less than one degree longitude offshore when it was at our latitude 26.4. Otherwise, there would have been a very different story for Beautiful New Smyrna Beach which is just north of Canaveral and south of Daytona. As it was, we had fences down sporadic shingles blown off, power outages, and lots and lots of smaller branches, leaves, and some trees down.
Everyone here knows we dodged a bullet and thanking our lucky stars.

p.s. I suspect it was not only dry air but also proximity to land that kept the big engine from kicking into the next gear. Has anyone posted a victory for GFS yet? Oh sure...that must have been days ago. Have been in the "cane bubble" since Thursday! On my phone sometime around 4 a.m. Friday saw 57mph sustained and 92mph gusts in our local wind report on WUground. Right around the time Matthew was at 26.4N 80.5W if memory serves me.


Hey Chicklit, hapy to see youare back and in good shape (relatively speaking). Many folks had been asking about you and how you fared. They will be pleased to hear about your good fortune (again, relatively speaking).
Quoting 208. DevilsIsles:

We in Bermuda getting ready for our annual hit! this will be the 4th within 3 years!


Wouldn't that technically make it more than an annual event? Hope that Nicole does not try and over-achieve.
Euro 6 days out.Matthew goes towards Britain, Nicole a major hurricane..

any thing past 60W is closed for the season that wave that the models are hitting at dos not stan a ch what we are seeing on the model runs right now are nothing but ghost storms wish means it may not even happen at all

213. jrb01
Quoting 203. MahFL:



That's not exactly a new motto.
Also you can't legally shoot people if they are just stealing stuff. You can only legally shoot people if they are threatening your life or actually damaging property. Also might be a good idea to retain a good lawyer.



Actually, under current FL law, you can legally use deadly force to prevent a felony, including robbery and burglary of a home or business. I'm not advocating for that action, but that is what the law says...
has its been a long 2 too 3 week storm tracking with mat i am taking 2 weeks off from the blogs i will still be on lurking but i will not be making any commits am done with tropical tracking for right now
Quoting 204. NEFLWATCHING:

If anyone on here knows how Summerhaven (just north of Marineland) fared, please pass on info. Coworker here is not at work, have not heard how they are. TIA


NWS JAX has a post-Matthew summary. Summerhaven was hit hard based on their observations. Use this link then scroll down to St Johns County.
testing
Just read through the past 209 entries and I've got to jump in and say something about all the whining and boo-hoo that the NWS, NHC, storm prediction center, Masters and Hensen got hurricane Matthew all wrong, even though 10's of millions of dollars spent on super computers, weather forecasters, etc,etc. I've lived in Houston since 1975 and been through countless tropical storms, several Hurricanes (Ike the worst so far), and had my house flooded once. STOP YOUR DAMN PITY PARTY, SUCK IT UP, AND GET ON WITH THE REPAIRS AND START DEALING WITH THE INSURANCE IF YOU HAVE IT. My gosh, look what happened in Haiti and count your lucky stars the same didn't happen here. If you live along the coast, OR ANYWHERE NEAR THE COAST OR A RIVER, you darn well better have a plan to get out when threatened and a plan to deal with the WORST POSSIBLE HEREAFTER, just in case the storm turns out to be A LOT WORSE THAN FORECAST (1981---Alicia---go to bed thinking just a tropical storm, wake up to a cat2; 2005---Rita---cat 3 in the ctr GOM, go to bed, wake up to a cat 5 with ALL the model tracks pointing at Houston. That will scare the crap outta ya; 2008---Ike---google the pictures of Bolivar Peninsula after Ike's 28ft storm surge passed by). PLAN FOR THE WORST, HOPE FOR THE BEST!
Quoting 204. NEFLWATCHING:

If anyone on here knows how Summerhaven (just north of Marineland) fared, please pass on info. Coworker here is not at work, have not heard how they are. TIA

If you click on my name, it will take you to my blog; there are some links there for flagler and ponte vedra. I do not think Marineland fared so well, as that is near the area where A1A got washed away.
Also, google #marineland, #A1A
Tropical Trouble next week is being sniffed out by the Euro.

Hole in the blog?
.
Quoting 205. hydrus:

GFS blows Nicole into a very large hurricane in about four days, with Bermuda being hit...


The blog may wake up again.
Quoting 195. hydrus:

Here is a wave coming off Africa with some potential. The models are picking up on a possible system to develop in the Western Caribbean before this wave gets into our neck of the woods..Its wait and see...


Looks like a low rider.
Quoting 179. wxchaser97:


I've been in contact with Cody and he's alright but his area definitely sustained damage. Street lights were bent, trees and power lines are down, siding was ripped off, a tree almost hit his room, and there was of course flooding in the area.

BTW, I'm uploading my chase footage from Matthew. What an intense experience it was and it made me more sensitive for what people deal with in hurricanes.
For anyone that wants to see it, here's me footage from Matthew.
I was not too surprised at Matthew.
El Nino sometimes likes to take one last nasty shot at us before he disappears. Like a super storm that has been inoculated against all the normal meteorological influences ,and, the jet-stream acts like it has been forbidden to intercede on our behalf.
we may still see a foot of snow in GA and N.FL and a hurricane nor'easter for no apparent reason,but,I think that has to do more with balance of energy being restored.
Hello?
Quoting 188. Chicklit:


Yes, it was with great relief that we saw the EWRC fail and the storm center stay less than one degree longitude offshore when it was at our latitude 26.4. Otherwise, there would have been a very different story for Beautiful New Smyrna Beach which is just north of Canaveral and south of Daytona. As it was, we had fences down sporadic shingles blown off, power outages, and lots and lots of smaller branches, leaves, and some trees down.
Everyone here knows we dodged a bullet and thanking our lucky stars.

p.s. I suspect it was not only dry air but also proximity to land that kept the big engine from kicking into the next gear. Has anyone posted a victory for GFS yet? Oh sure...that must have been days ago. Have been in the "cane bubble" since Thursday! On my phone sometime around 4 a.m.

Yep. Just got my internet back an hour or so ago. I'm about fifteen miles west of you.

When it looked like it might get real bad, we bugged out for Orlando, so I don't know what precisely the winds were here. But we, too, had lots of small branches and some fences down, along with a particularly nasty cactus up the street (good riddance to that). I've refilled the fridge, so life is back to what passes for normal for me.

Glad to hear you didn't have major problems.
Quoting 208. DevilsIsles:

We in Bermuda getting ready for our annual hit! this will be the 4th within 3 years!

Wish I could say something more useful than "good luck", but I'm afraid that's all I've got. Stay safe.
dont like 50% of the models do this?

Quoting 195. hydrus:

Here is a wave coming off Africa with some potential. The models are picking up on a possible system to develop in the Western Caribbean before this wave gets into our neck of the woods..Its wait and see...


Where's the FL bloggers? cleaning up, or blog burn out
Test 10:37
Quoting 153. haggler:

Just got back to my home in Sunset Beach, NC. Huge storm surge, lots of wind damage, incredible rains, hundreds of water rescues -- and the threat of flooding continues. I've got thousands of dollars of damage to my home. How and why did the NWS and NHC get this so wrong? We were told again and again of an 8 PM arrival (close to low tide), and suddenly it was there at 3 PM (close to high tide). We were told it would turn sharply East into the Atlantic but it pushed right through NC and VA. How can millions upon millions of dollars worth of experts and equipment be so totally wrong and still keep picking up their government paychecks? Please spare me the "it's not an exact science" answer. I understand. But when we get down to 12- and 6-hour time scales, it should be one heck of a lot more accurate than this. I think the entire federal weather reporting bureaucracy owes the American taxpayers a detailed explanation for why they let us down so badly regarding Matthew. This storm was a disaster.

That's very unfortunate that you experienced damage from the storm. Hopefully you can get the resources you need to repair and rebuild. I can also understand why you would have strong emotions and feelings about the event because of how it affected you personally. But looking at the data, it appears that some of your comments and insinuations are not quite accurate.

You can look at the archive of forecast data for Hurricane Matthew here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14 /loop_3W.shtml

I collected information from NHC forecasts over a 72hr period prior to closest approach to your location (Sunset Beach, NC). I assumed closest approach as 5pm EDT 10/8. Since 5AM EDT 10/3, Sunset Beach was in almost every single cone of uncertainty, and for the 2 forecasts where it fell outside the cone, it was close. The Tropical Storm Warning was issued almost 48hrs prior to closest approach, and the Hurricane Warning was in effect for over 24hrs prior. Forecasts for very high rainfall totals near the coast were forecast as far back as 10/4.

I also analyzed each forecast back to 10/05 when the cone of uncertainty was starting to show the possibility of the center of Matthew being near Sunset Beach Remember, the cone illustrates the likely area of the center; roughly 67% of the time the center will be within the cone, but about 33% of the time it will end up outside. These statistics also apply only to the center; tropical cyclone impacts can reach 100s of miles away from the center. As far back as 10/5 with 72 hours of lead time stretching all the way to just prior to closest approach of Matthew, no forecast had more timing error than 9hrs. As expected, timing errors decreased as lead time decreased. Within the last day prior to landfall, all timing errors were 3hrs or less, with about half of forecasts having effectively no timing error at all. So for your area in particular, it looks like it followed the expectations quite closely.

With regard to surge impacts, I would caution everyone against getting to specific with the timing of the center's closest approach. Trying to time out when the center will be nearby in conjunction with high/low tides is just not a good thing to do. Small errors in the timing could easily move your peak surge from a high tide to a low tide. This is why storm surge and inundation maps are always conveyed assuming high tide.
testing
Quoting 144. hydrus:

Why do you say that.? Here is an excerpt from the last blog. Maybe you failed to read it correctly..

Hurricane Matthew made landfall near 11 am EDT Saturday about 25 miles northeast of Charleston, South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. During the past two high tide cycles, Matthew has pushed a historic and destructive storm surge to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, bringing coastal water levels that were the highest to third highest ever observed. The powerful hurricane, diminished to Category 2 strength with 105 mph winds early Saturday morning, nonetheless had a very large area of strong winds that were able to pile up a massive dome of water that was focused by the arc-shaped curve of the coast into a record-height storm surge. As of 8 am EDT Sunday, October 9, here were the approximate peak storm surges observed over the preceding 48 hours at all the tide gauges with a long-term period of record along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia (storm surge is the added water produced by a storm atop the normal tidal cycles):


atthew%u2019s just-offshore track may have spared the Southeast from billions of dollars in wind damage, but it didn%u2019t keep the hurricane from packing a phenomenal punch in the form of water. Like several other U.S. hurricanes in the last decade, including Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), Matthew delivered a much more severe storm surge than one might expect from its landfall strength, thanks to the water built up by much higher winds earlier in its life offshore. Matthew%u2019s track along the concave Southeast coast also enhanced its ability to produce high surge. Major storm surge was reported as far north as the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia, which received an unexpectedly powerful blow from Matthew that also included tropical-storm-strength sustained winds (including a peak gust of 75 mph at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach) and torrential rain.



I did not expect Virginia to get anywhere near the impacts it got, when looking at the the forecast maps three day prior. Definitely a blown forecast on my part.

Jeff Masters
Was waiting to see Kori fly by at any moment. O well!

Quoting 225. wxchaser97:

For anyone that wants to see it, here's me footage from Matthew.
Nicole going for CAT 3.

[Deleted duplicate post. Assumed original had not posted]
240. IDTH

A man calls his error his fault.


If you don't see this as a truth...then your ego is driving your conscious.


That's is a really bad way to fly here,or in life overall.

Semper Fi'

Quoting 231. RitaEvac:

Where's the FL bloggers? cleaning up, or blog burn out


On the Space Coast, we're trying to get back to normal. We ended up not having any damage. 3 fence panels blew over and lost 2 plants. I don't think we saw more than 60 MPH wind gusts at our house and had a little bit of rain. We are extremely lucky. We didn't lose power even though 64% of Brevard county lost it. Those to our north or in Haiti clearly weren't as lucky. This could've been very bad had it been 20 miles to the west.
Be thankful that major Matt stayed just offshore of Florida.

Next time it may not be a obligue angle Impact.


Good Afternoon.

Matthew sure was a pain.
Not too bad here, power coming back on today and tomorrow. We were basically in the "eye" of Matthew Saturday night and had less periods of high winds since storm tracked right along the coast. Feeling very lucky this year. It's much worst inland in nc.
Matthew was a major hurricane with thousands of deaths left in his wake.

Quoting 235. JeffMasters:



I did not expect Virginia to get anywhere near the impacts it got, when looking at the the forecast maps three day prior. Definitely a blown forecast on my part.

Jeff Masters


Only a few models showed Matthew going more northward impacting the DelMarVa and Virginia as a whole. That wasn't until I think Friday morning. I noted it, and asked for input, but all I got was one sarcastic comment in reply.

I also will say that we here in Pittsburgh DID INDEED feel a small impact from Matthew, as the rain we received Friday evening was due to the massive hurricane. In fact, Saturday evening, I saw the satellite image showing the very western edge of Matthew extending to the center of Allegheny County, where Pittsburgh resides.

Matthew threw everybody for a loop, countless times. Don't beat yourself up over not seeing him move up so far to the north.
Quoting 225. wxchaser97:

For anyone that wants to see it, here's me footage from Matthew.

Impressive winds! Thanks for the footage!
Meeting hurricane boss koritheman here in in Nola this evening.

Looking forward to his Matthew impact experience.

👍🌉🌎✌
Good afternoon; while we have spent the last several years tracking mostly struggling tropical storms and minimal storms in the Caribbean and US coast, we finally got our major Caribbean/US storm this year. It was bound to happen statistically after the lull/lucky period of the past 10 years but it has come at a heavy price and loss of life.

Will only note that much of the damage that we have seen in this same period, and including the no name LA tropical storm earlier this year, has come as the result of storm surge on the coast, but mainly, from rain impacts and flooding as a direct result of rains dumped during the storm while over head and then the mudslides in the Caribbean, and river over-flooding..................Regardless of Cat strength which proportionately translates to more wind damage, water is the biggest killer.
Quoting 208. DevilsIsles:

We in Bermuda getting ready for our annual hit! this will be the 4th within 3 years!


If its any consolation -this is most probably just a season for Bermuda...a horrible one though to be sure. However, nonetheless, its hopefully only a sort of extraordinary cyclonic cycle (a phase) for your regional area and the island of Bermuda.
I vividly recall the late 90's here in the Central Lesser Antilles islands- when the tropical system assault seemed relentless. Actually, no kidding- I remember there being so much 'interference' with the normal scheduling and flow of both the general public and private sector work, and productivity potential due to cancellations resulting from active Tropical system threats and subsequent warnings that by the onset of Tropical storm Jose (1999), which posed a serious threat to the islands (having had- Iris, Luis, Marilyn all in 1995, Bertha & Hortense 1996, Georges in 1998 along with countless active disturbances)- so by this point in-spite of tropical storm warnings being issued; it was still largely Business as usual, and the powers that be just kind of turned a blind eye to the whole thing -sighting its intensity as being of a minimal nature while hoping for the best. I do remember heading out to work albeit diffidently, and also hoping & praying for the best. Just a few weeks later the same scenario would unfold with Hurricane Lenny, which was far more destructive and incredibly worse yet -not even a single issuance of warning or alert was issued though it was clearly gravely warranted at the time (Case in point 'evil' Erika -last year)...I guess that with the passage of time- sadly, much has not changed, though tragically of course to the detriment of our citizenry.
Nevertheless, I assure You- this TOO Shall pass. Hope and Pray for the best But Certainly PREPARE for the worst. That's the best rule of thumb...never become indifferent or slip-shod.

Keep safe everyone in this balance of the 2016 Hurricane season.
God Bless!
Quoting 231. RitaEvac:

Where's the FL bloggers? cleaning up, or blog burn out


Outside, it reached only around 83 in SFL lol
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Link

future PSA
Link
Quoting 243. Patrap:

Be thankful that major Matt stayed just offshore of Florida.

Next time it may not be a obligue angle Impact.





75 miles is close enough to a cat4/cat5 that I want to get.
I've read that the Hurricane will likely wash away the specific type of mosquito that transmits Zika...not all mosquitoes
Link
GFS still advertising a direct hit on Bermuda.Looks like Nicole wants to make her own legacy
Quoting 153. haggler:

Just got back to my home in Sunset Beach, NC. Huge storm surge, lots of wind damage, incredible rains, hundreds of water rescues -- and the threat of flooding continues. I've got thousands of dollars of damage to my home. How and why did the NWS and NHC get this so wrong? We were told again and again of an 8 PM arrival (close to low tide), and suddenly it was there at 3 PM (close to high tide). We were told it would turn sharply East into the Atlantic but it pushed right through NC and VA. How can millions upon millions of dollars worth of experts and equipment be so totally wrong and still keep picking up their government paychecks? Please spare me the "it's not an exact science" answer. I understand. But when we get down to 12- and 6-hour time scales, it should be one heck of a lot more accurate than this. I think the entire federal weather reporting bureaucracy owes the American taxpayers a detailed explanation for why they let us down so badly regarding Matthew. This storm was a disaster.

Interesting post.....
One of many on the topic.
It looks like the "how come the NHC failed" will continue for a while.

I am not in a Hurricane Danger zone (11n 61w, Trinidad) but really, when we see a storm coming our way we tend to be aware that these things can and do behave in ways that are totally Unpredictable. And while we pay attention to long and short-term forecasts, we certainly do not read them as set in stone.

Basing your life on Weather Forecasts, (predicting the future) is a bit like casting your election ballot on the perceived results of a 90 minute Debate.
Both are based upon conditions prevailing in the moment, and both will generally result in Doom.

No Disrespect intended, but really..........????
today has been a pleasant morning across south florida with low humidities and a nice breeze off the northeast.it was really nice to make a stroll through my town today :)
Quoting 235. JeffMasters:



I did not expect Virginia to get anywhere near the impacts it got, when looking at the the forecast maps three day prior. Definitely a blown forecast on my part.

Jeff Masters
Greetings Doc...I posted this comment at #155...Mathew was not an easy storm to forecast, especially when it started interacting with the frontal system. There have certainly been major hurricanes that where much easier to forecast with regards to future track and strength. Even though the forecast blown, many folks in the Virginia coastal region are familiar with these storms, and likely took some measures to protect themselves..Put this comment in yesterday...

This also supports the the fact that they were not hiding anything. This was not an ordinary storm, and some deeper understanding about what happened with this system should be considered. The EURO, which is held with great regard to storm forecasting blew it Here is the 00z run, was close with the distance and track up until it gets to South Carolina, then blows it completely .I believe they forecast it well enough for people in Virginia to realize they would receive impacts from this storm. The statement from 2009 is an opinion more than truth. I read the past blogs, and feel certain that if I lived in SE Virginia, I would have taken action to protect my property.

Euro at 00z October -7..48 and 72 hours out..

">
Just checking on our FL, GA, SC, and NC bloggers. Hope all are recovering. Daughter in Fayetteville NC is still without power. Didn't flood, but it's a mess all around her.
Good afternoon it is sad to see the death toll continuing to rise in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew and now another issue with cholera and malaria from standing water. This is not good and we'll need a large scale humanitarian effort to assist those in Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast. Relief will need to get there fast to save those who have fallen ill. I will be donating to my church and trying to assist them as part of a larger organization called Episcopal Relief & Development which is the mothership for responding to such disasters.

Harrowing accounts from survivors in Haiti during the storm.

L’ESPOIR FAIT VIVRE (WHERE THERE IS HOPE THERE IS LIFE)



“Papa, J’ai peur, je veux du soleil (Daddy, I am scared, I want to see the sun).” These were the words uttered by my 4-year-old son as Hurricane Matthew’s torrential rain and heavy winds pounded Haiti Tuesday night. The strong winds made it sound like our house might disappear into the air. We could hear a high, shrill, piercing clatter when our window frames vibrated. This is the first hurricane he has lived through. That was certainly a scary moment for him, but after the long, dark night of tension, we were fine. We were lucky.

Not all Haitians were as lucky as my family was. According to the latest numbers released by the Directorate of Civil Protection, more than 350,000 people are in need of assistance and 15,623 people are displaced. So far, 283 people have been confirmed dead by the government, but the local media have reported more than 300.
Quoting 235. JeffMasters:



I did not expect Virginia to get anywhere near the impacts it got, when looking at the the forecast maps three day prior. Definitely a blown forecast on my part.

Jeff Masters
Lots of folks where fixated on the 'Loop of Doom' imo...
The record pwats showed us that Earth Atmo 2.0 is not the atmosphere of 10 years ago.

This atmosphere has much more water vapor per square meter.




Atmospheric CO2

September 2016

401.01

Haven't seen nohelp4u lately.

Magine Dat ?

😀
Quoting 241. Patrap:

A man calls his error his fault.


If you don't see this as a truth...then your ego is driving your conscious.


That's is a really bad way to fly here,or in life overall.

Semper Fi'


Very good comment Pat. I do my best to communicate on this blog..Sometimes I just cant seem to do it..:)
Quoting 242. PacketHauler:



On the Space Coast, we're trying to get back to normal. We ended up not having any damage. 3 fence panels blew over and lost 2 plants. I don't think we saw more than 60 MPH wind gusts at our house and had a little bit of rain. We are extremely lucky. We didn't lose power even though 64% of Brevard county lost it. Those to our north or in Haiti clearly weren't as lucky. This could've been very bad had it been 20 miles to the west.


Naval Station in Cape Canaveral saw 107mph wind gusts. We saw about 70mph wind gust north of Orlando with lots of tree damage and even had some downed powerlines. Winds seemed to be the strongest in areas where these bands set up. Also Daytona Beach got hit very hard with lots of damage to hotels on Daytona Beach Shores as many lost their roofs.
Quoting 231. RitaEvac:

Where's the FL bloggers? cleaning up, or blog burn out

For me, blog burn out. In NE Broward we had nothing even approaching sustained tropical storm force winds. My backyard is full of old-growth trees...I'd removed a large branch that had fallen as I was preparing for the storm...after the storm, there was not a twig on the ground, though a neighbor said an avocado had fallen on hers. My guess is a lot of SFL bloggers are unravelling their storm preps. I do wonder why the NHC Wind History for Matthew continues to show tropical storm force winds for Broward...disappointing, this last.
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:



Naval Station in Cape Canaveral saw 107mph wind gusts. We saw about 70mph wind gust north of Orlando with lots of tree damage and even had some downed powerlines. Winds seemed to be the strongest in areas where these bands set up. Also Daytona Beach got hit very hard with lots of damage to hotels on Daytona Beach Shores as many lost their roofs.


We had 68 mpH winds in Fort Pierce; still, it could have been worse had not Matthew taken an eastern jog by about 20-25 miles.
Matthew's remnants flood my home. :(
Quoting 266. Patrap:

Haven't seen nohelp4u lately.

Magine Dat ?

😀

Indeed, 'magin' 'dat.
Quoting 206. ncstorm:

Good morning,

My power came back on late last night. Thank you Duke Energy!!

Yesterday I was in Northern New Hanover County and saw Water Rescue teams from Denver, NC. I went to each responder to shake their hands and thank them.

Neuse River might break a record later this week



Cape fear River near Burgaw




We'll have to see. Luckily the forecast is for no more rain this week up near Raleigh/Durham. This means the Army corp of Engineers can keep the dam at Falls lake from having to be opened wider . This should help slow the flow of water into the Neuse. The runoff from tributaries will remain strong for a few days. I drive over a piece of the lake quite often, and it appears to be 4 or so feet up this week. But far from a dangerous over capacity.
Quoting 270. rmbjoe1954:



We had 68 mpH winds in Fort Pierce; still, it could have been worse had not Matthew taken an eastern jog by about 20-25 miles.
Yep..Hate to think what would have happened if Matt had paralleled the coast just offshore the whole way up...A disaster for sure.
275. IDTH
Quoting 266. Patrap:

Haven't seen nohelp4u lately.

Magine Dat ?

😀

Shhhh....
Quoting 247. PPUGrad04:



Only a few models showed Matthew going more northward impacting the DelMarVa and Virginia as a whole. That wasn't until I think Friday morning. I noted it, and asked for input, but all I got was one sarcastic comment in reply.

I also will say that we here in Pittsburgh DID INDEED feel a small impact from Matthew, as the rain we received Friday evening was due to the massive hurricane. In fact, Saturday evening, I saw the satellite image showing the very western edge of Matthew extending to the center of Allegheny County, where Pittsburgh resides.

Matthew threw everybody for a loop, countless times. Don't beat yourself up over not seeing him move up so far to the north.


Wasn't rain in Pittsburgh from a cold front?
Quoting 274. hydrus:

Yep..Hate to think what would have happened if Matt had paralleled the coast just offshore the whole way up...A disaster for sure.


Center moved real close to Cape Canaveral and was literally a few miles offshore at that point which put Cape Canaveral squarely in the western eyewall hence the 107 mph wind gusts at the Naval Station. At that point the storm was at its closest approach to Orlando which isn't more 60 miles. At that point is when the winds started to cream outside at around 6:30am Friday which is when we lost power.
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:



Naval Station in Cape Canaveral saw 107mph wind gusts. We saw about 70mph wind gust north of Orlando with lots of tree damage and even had some downed powerlines. Winds seemed to be the strongest in areas where these bands set up. Also Daytona Beach got hit very hard with lots of damage to hotels on Daytona Beach Shores as many lost their roofs.


I believe that 107 mph gust was at "elevation." That's what I kept hearing on TWC. I'm not exactly sure how high of "elevation" the anemometer was located.
But it's to be expected that the Cape would have experienced the highest winds in East Central Florida because that's the only location that got into the expanded western eye wall.
Just a couple miles further west of the Cape and they wouldn't have experienced the western eye wall.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.








Oh, pilot of the storm who leaves no trace
Like sorts inside a dream
Leave the path that led me to that place
Yellow desert stream
Like Shangri-la beneath the summer moon
I will return again
As the dust that floats high in June
We're moving through Kashmir....

Oh, father of the four winds fill my sails
Cross the sea of years
With no provision but an open face
Along the straits of fear
Oh, when I want, when I'm on my way, yeah
And my feet wear my fickle way to stay....
Quoting 240. IDTH:





CPC updated their weekly outlook and say the July-September average/ONI is now at -0.5 - Link

So we're likely in a weak La Nina state now.
Silly me, but since forecasts are typically issued in "percentage chance" terminology, I've always assumed that forecasters, even the best of the best, can't predict the future with 100% accuracy, and they never pretend to do so. That they get as close as they do is pretty astonishing to me, especially remembering the forecasts of my youth.

I thought the NHC and Dr. Masters did an extraordinary job with Matthew, and while they are being criticized for not being perfect, I applaud them for how much they got right. If people were paying attention, they had many days' advance notice that a storm was coming that could potentially affect the entire East Coast. If I had been living anywhere on the coast between the tip of Florida to Maine, I would have been preparing for the worst well before Matthew hit, and many did. Prepare for the worst, hope for best, as many posters said.

If you want a prediction about the future to be delivered without percentages, go pay a psychic to read your palm. If you want to know if your house is going to get flooded in a hurricane, go read a flood map or storm surge map. If I lived on a barrier island or flood zone, and the spinning wall of water was coming in my direction with a history of dropping feet of water on Haiti and the Bahamas, I might be concerned for my safety regardless of what the NHC and Dr. Masters said. Because I understand that nature is unpredictable and science can't yet predict the future with certainty because of too many variables. Until we fund the science and technology to get a better understanding of those variables, I will continue to give forecasters my utmost respect for trying to do their best with the incomplete data they are given.

Quoting 155. hydrus:



Hydrus, all of that supports his argument. "Unexpectedly" in the second paragraph. Both paragraphs are catalogs of reports AFTER the storm began influencing Virginia. You have to go back into earlier blogs if you want to see whether or not Masters correctly forecasted for VA or not. Also have to look at NWS and WPC archives to see if anyone called it.

I do agree with beell's point of the unnecessary harshness towards Masters & NHC.



This also supports the the fact that they were not hiding anything. This was not an ordinary storm, and some deeper understanding about what happened with this system should be considered. The EURO, which is held with great regard to storm forecasting blew it Here is the 00z run, was close with the distance and track up until it gets to South Carolina, then blows it completely .I believe they forecast it well enough for people in Virginia to realize they would receive impacts from this storm. The statement from 2009 is an opinion more than truth. I read the past blogs, and feel certain that if I lived in SE Virginia, I would have taken action to protect my property.

Euro at 00z October -7..48 and 72 hours out..








I know I'm posting this long after your comment but we've been busy cleaning up. I had mentioned back on Wednesday that , although I was out of the cone, I wasn't letting my guard down because this storm had already "changed course" a few times. I wasn't a bit surprised when our local met started saying things like "this might be coming closer to us than expected". Because of this blog we were as prepared as we could be and fared pretty well. So thanks to you all! And best wishes to all on here who have been impacted.
Quoting 271. HurricaneCamille:

Matthew's remnants flood my home. :(

Sad to hear that. Been a victim of remnants myself. You can make good, but you'll never trust another forecast. You'll become your own weatherboss going forward as I have tried to. I have faulty 60yr old drainage issues downstream which continually cause me pain. UK in an unseasonable 10 day dry spell right now so sleeping well, But my friend, once a victim, twice shy is my plan.
Good evening

It's been a wild couple of hours over here. Just a little over five inches of rain fell in a four-hour period this afternoon. Created lots of local flooding. I personally was at the office and had to play "keep dogs away from each other or one is gonna kill the other" because thunder sets the one off. In the 13 years I've been here, today was the worst thunder I've ever heard.

Just love the fact I just crossed Chicklet off my list of "people to worry about" and my list is complete! Am so, so thankful that my list of WU people affected by Matthew came through "relatively" unscathed!

Hoping all is well with you folks tonight!

Lindy