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Matthew, Atlantic’s Deadliest Hurricane in 11 Years, Heads for Georgia, S. Carolina

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 10:15 PM GMT on October 07, 2016

Friday brought very good news and very bad news on Hurricane Matthew. The powerful storm stayed just far enough offshore to spare Florida its worst, but reports from Haiti showed that Matthew was far more of a disaster than initially thought. Now that relief workers and other offiicals have made it to Haiti’s hard-hit southwest corner, they report catastophic conditions and a mounting death toll. More than 800 people have died in Haiti, and that number is expected to grow, perhaps dramatically, as rescue and relief efforts continue.

As of 5 pm EDT Friday, the center of Matthew was located about 40 miles east of Jacksonville Beach, FL, moving north at 12 mph. Matthew’s top sustained winds had dropped to 110 mph, making it a high-end Category 2 storm. According to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) Matthew’s impressive duration of just over seven days as a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) put it in a tie for the fifth-longest such stretch since satellite observations began in the Atlantic in 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Matthew taken at 12 pm EDT October 7, 2016. At the time, Matthew was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Matthew’s track: a parallel reality
Matthew jogged just far enough to the east over the Bahamas so that its generally well-predicted track parallel to the central and north Florida coast kept the center just offshore--far enough so that the hurricane’s western eyewall only nicked the coastline. The top wind gust reported thus far was 107 mph at Cape Canaveral, which juts out a few miles into the Atlantic and was thus closer to Matthew’s higher winds. The impact was much less than feared at Kennedy Space Center, mainly limited to scattered debris and some roof damage. Elsewhere along the Florida coast, top sustained winds were surprisingly low, generally in the tropical storm range, resulting in fairly minor damage overall. Daytona Beach received sustained winds of at least 46 mph, with gusts as high as 67 mph. Saint Augustine notched peak sustained winds of 51 mph, with gusts to 67 mph.

Matthew is carrying out a classic round-the-bend path on the west side of a zone of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic. The latest NHC forecast keeps Matthew hugging the Southeast coast all the way to central South Carolina by Saturday afternoon. Matthew’s gradual weakening should continue, but it may still be a hurricane as it nears Charleston, SC, and a brief landfall is possible if the path arcs slightly more leftward than expected.


Figure 2. Heavy waves caused by Hurricane Matthew pounds the boat docks at the Sunset Bar and Grill, October 7, 2016 on Cocoa Beach, Florida. Image credit: Mark Wilson/Getty Images.


Figure 3. A truck negotiates around trees downed by Hurricane Matthew, Friday, Oct. 7, 2016, in Daytona Beach, Florida. Image credit: AP Photo/Eric Gay.

Storm surge and inland flooding are now the main threat from Matthew
Matthew’s track nudged ever closer to the coast on Friday afternoon, causing progressively more serious problems with storm surge. Much of historic Saint Augustine, FL, was under water for several hours close to the midday high tide on Friday (see embedded tweet below). Althena Masson (@Wx_Goddess), a meteorologist and doctoral student at the University of Toronto from the Saint Augustine area, filed numerous tweets from the scene. “Matthew, you will not take my thesis research!” she exclaimed at one point, later evacuating to the second story of her home. Water also poured across the barrier-island community of Jacksonville Beach, as captured by a news helicopter. One videographer captured a huge tree being uprooted in Jacksonville, where Matthew may deliver the most severe hurricane-related impacts since Dora in 1964.

NHC projects that inundation levels of up to 11 feet are possible along the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts as Matthew approaches. Already on Friday afternoon, Matthew was producing once-in-a-century high water levels ahead of its track. At Fernandina Beach, FL, the early-afternoon high tide combined with the storm surge for a crest of 4.11 feet above mean high high water (MHHW) on Friday afternoon. This is the highest water observed at Fernandina Beach in more than 100 years, beating the peak MHHW of 3.9 feet observed during Hurricane Dora (1964) and topped only by the reading of 6.94 feet recorded on October 2 during the Hurricane of 1898. On Georgia’s Brunswick River, at Village Pier on St. Simons Island, Georgia, a river crest of 6.15 feet observed around 5 pm EDT Friday beat the reading of 5.93 feet observed there on February 7, 1993. Based on the surge values during low tide Friday, Fort Pulaski, Georgia, is likely to see water at least 4 to 5 feet above MLLW during the high-tide cycle centered around midnight Friday night. In records going back to the 1930s, the highest reading observed at Fort Pulaski is 3.4 feet above MLLW, recorded on October 15, 1947. Comparable levels of surge may extend to the Low Country of South Carolina, a highly vulnerable area. The National Weather Service office in Charleston is warning of the potential for life-threatening surge in some coastal locations between Charleston and the Georgia border. In its afternoon weather discussion, the office stated:

”Many beach communities will see extensive damage to beach front properties due to a combination of large breaking waves, high surge and dangerous winds. Homes at Edisto Beach [were] already being undermined at high tide earlier this afternoon and Tybee Island saw significant flooding along the beach front. Expect considerably worse conditions tonight and it can not be stressed enough that how dangerous this scenario is.”

You can monitor surge as it moves up the Southeast coast using our wundermap with the “Storm Surge” layer turned on (note that these values are relative to mean low low water rather than mean high high water). Two other good sources are the NOAA Tides and Currents storm page for Matthew, and storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham’s U-SURGE page for Matthew. Dr. Needham has some excellent information on the storm surge history of the north Florida to southern South Carolina coast in a Friday morning blog post, The "Protected Coast" is Now the Most Dangerous Place of All.

Very heavy rains are the other looming threat from Matthew. Totals of 10” to 15” may occur along the immediate coast ahead of Matthew, and 3” - 10” can be expected over large parts of the eastern Carolinas. These rains may produce dangerous flooding well inland. Wind gusts could reach the 40-60 mph range over the eastern Carolinas from Saturday night into Sunday. Given the wet soils that preceded Matthew, compounded by any rains from the hurricane itself, many trees could be felled and widespread power outages are possible.


Figure 4. Three-day forecasts issued for Hurricane Katrina (left) on Friday, August 26, 2005, and for Hurricane Matthew (right) on Tuesday, October 4, 2016. The red circles denote the actual locations of each storm three days after the forecasts were issued. The "cone of uncertainty" is based on forecast errors over the prior five years, so it was narrower for Matthew than for Katrina. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC.

Matthew’s forecast: Accuracy goes head-to-head with geometry
People along the central Florida coast can be forgiven for thinking that the NHC forecast for Matthew was a bust. Millions of folks on the coast who were warned about the potential of fierce Category 3 winds ended up with sustained winds barely above tropical-storm strength. Yet the actual forecast for Matthew--the storm itself--was remarkably accurate. The right-hand side of Figure 4 shows the 3-day forecast issued by NHC for Matthew on Tuesday morning, October 4. Matthew’s location on Friday morning was within 75 miles of the 3-day forecast position, well within the “cone of uncertainty”. The cone width is based on error statistics for the five preceding hurricane seasons; at any point in the forecast, there’s a one-third chance that the hurricane will fall outside the cone. On the left-hand side of Figure 4, we see that the forecast for Katrina issued three days before landfall (on Friday, August 26, 2005) was far less accurate, with the actual position of Katrina more than 150 miles from the 3-day forecast location. Even with the wider cone of uncertainty circa 2005 (reflecting the greater track errors of 10-15 years ago), Katrina’s 3-day position was barely within the cone.

Figure 4 also shows us the geographic challenge of forecasting Matthew. Had Florida’s coast been oriented from west to east, like the central Gulf Coast, then Matthew would have slammed directly into some point on the coast, as Katrina did, with significant wind damage a near-certainty. Instead, Matthew tracked virtually parallel to the coast, which meant that the relatively minor (but impact-significant) forecast error relative to the coast was extended over a much longer time period.


Figure 5. Small towns along the western coast of Haiti suffered extreme damage from storm surge during Hurricane Matthew. This photo was tweeted by a United Nations aerial survey. Image credit: United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), via univision.com.

Yet another disastrous hurricane for Haiti
Matthew’s death toll makes it the deadliest year for hurricanes in Haiti since 2008, when four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country. According to reliefweb.org, Haiti suffered 793 killed, with 310 missing and another 593 injured due to hurricanes in 2008. Matthew is the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Katrina of 2005, which killed 1833 people (though Hurricane Stan of 2005 was indirectly responsible for 1000 - 2000 flooding deaths that year, as well.) So far, Matthew does not make it on the list of the 30 deadliest Atlantic hurricanes in history, which consists of storms that killed at least 1,500 people.

We’ll be back with our next update on Matthew by Saturday morning.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


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Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 943. weblackey:

Anyone from Oak Island on the blog?
(Had a glitch earlier, hope this doesn't post twice)

I'm from Oak Island / Southport but, came up to VA to see my sister this weekend. I have seen lots of pictures of water coming up the beach accesses and into the roads. Also, Turtle Island lost an 8 ft section of their awning. My parents said the wind is tarting to pick up. Today shold be interesting for sure. Hope my house will be ok!
1002. Patrap
Rain totals

1003. Patrap


For what it's worth, the GFDL for quite a while has had Matthew getting 'collected' and moving northeast up the coast/out to sea rather than looping back. No idea why it's been such a consistent outlier in this regard for the past several days, as compared to many of the alternatives....

e.g. here's the 12Z06OCT2016 from the GFDL/NOAA site:

1005. Patrap


1006. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago Kailua, HI
Hurricane #Matthew's landfall pressure of 967 mb is 7th lowest for South Carolina landfall on record (since 1851).
1007. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 4m4 minutes ago Kailua, HI
The lowest landfall pressure for a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on record was Hugo (1989) at 934 mb.
1008. Soflo
Boynton beach here. No damage at all. Prepared for the worst got the best. Our daily thunderstorm is stronger than we experienced here. I was half a mile from shore
Quoting 998. islanddude:

hi from Cedar Island no water yet down here but it's rising hope everyone is safe


Water coming up quickly in the Trent river. Stay safe.
Huge tree limbs coming down here in Sanford NC...power flickering, relatives a few miles away are without power...and alooot of rain. Water runnin everywhere.

Fun stuff.
Quoting 996. ChiThom:

Link

This is the link I tried to post earlier. It's for: The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) Hurricane Matthew.
Thanks to BaltimoreBrian.


Assessment of damage from Nassau, Bahamas


Quoting 991. Articuno:



Anyone seen Baha?


Not to my knowledge
Live in west palm beach and thanking God, winderground and Jeff today
Quoting 1000. daddyjames:

Potentially huge inland flooding event developing :(
Rainfall over the past 24 hours. Many locations estimated at 14 inches


This is just plain bad. FEMA is going to be overwhelmed with claims. I heard some private insurers were picking up the slack with Flood Policies but this has been, and continues to be, catastrophic.
1015. ncstorm
Wilmington is in a dry air part of Matthew right now....winds have die down along with the rain..

the Inland counties though are about to take one on the chin with all the rain..

Watching WECT the meterologist is seeing kids play under the pier at Wrightsville Beach...he said as soon as he finishes his report he is going down to tell the PARENTS that the kids could easily get swept out and to have them leave..

Darwin at its best..

The loop-de-loop is looking less and less likely with the landfall of Matthew in SC. I doubted this loop from the onset.
Nasty here, tornado warning, power going out around us, gusting to 50 or so not much rain, worst to come tonight
NICOLE may be are last named storm of the season has wind shear is starting too take over the the fall and winter time moths not saying we could still get one more named storm out there but it looks like are hurricane season is comeing too a closed/end after NICOLE

TWC just had helicopter footage of damage along Jacksonville Beach. Beachside houses are undermined with the dune completley gone from the beach. St. Augustine reports indicating that no undermining occurred in that region. Again, preliminary.
1020. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 1143 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 1132 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 1118 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 1117 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 1022 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 942 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016
1021. hydrus
Quoting 991. Articuno:



Anyone seen Baha?
No..,.Very concerned about her.
Good afternoon everyone. I'm glad to report that The Bahamas has survived Hurricane Matthew fairly well, all things considered. Things are likely to continue to be a bit tough here for at least another week, but I am in Sbux having a coffee and checking in. We have had extensive wind damage and surge already the south coast was high. So far, though, no loss of life has been confirmed. Everything else can be recovered, in time. Prayers to the Carolina coast residents who are likely to see a bad surge event.

I'll be checking in sporadically as data permits.
Nicole moving S 7mph.... getting near us.... cloudy & rain N shore

1024. MZT
Most of N.C. east of I-85 will get a whole day of heavy rain. I dunno if the entire system will be "Floyd bad" but we'll be hearing about rising water levels the next few days and people will be nervously waiting to learn the cresting points.
Quoting 1015. ncstorm:

Wilmington is in a dry air part of Matthew right now....winds have die down along with the rain..

the Inland counties though are about to take one on the chin with all the rain..

Watching WECT the meterologist is seeing kids play under the pier at Wrightsville Beach...he said as soon as he finishes his report he is going down to tell the PARENTS that the kids could easily get swept out and to have them leave..

Darwin at its best..


There is nothing Darwinian about stupid parents putting their children at risk
Quoting 1022. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon everyone. I'm glad to report that The Bahamas has survived Hurricane Matthew fairly well, all things considered. Things are likely to continue to be a bit tough here for at least another week, but I am in Sbux having a coffee and checking in. We have had extensive wind damage and surge already the south coast was high. So far, though, no loss of life has been confirmed. Everything else can be recovered, in time. Prayers to the Carolina coast residents who are likely to see a bad surge event.

I'll be checking in sporadically as data permits.



Baha! We are worried about you and you are sipping coffee at a cafe? Happy to hear that, sorry to see the devestation from the soutside of Nassau. Thanks for checking in!
Small surf in Rincon due to Winds East



Getting drenched in south eastern NC right now, rain has already flooded the yard, and gusts keep increasing allowing with duration and frequency. Plenty of roads are covered but haven't lost power just yet.
Quoting 1001. melissasue62:


I'm from Oak Island / Southport but, came up to VA to see my sister this weekend. I have seen lots of pictures of water coming up the beach accesses and into the roads. Also, Turtle Island lost an 8 ft section of their awning. My parents said the wind is tarting to pick up. Today shold be interesting for sure. Hope my house will be ok!


I hope your house fares well, also! And that your parents stay ok. Thank you for checking in.
1031. llpj04
Quoting 980. kimSCbeaches:



Funny... Verizon phones did not work here on the grand strand in the middle of last night. They are working now. Phones went BLANK.

same thing happened here during Katrina. Some said the phone companies did that on purpose to make it easier for emergency services to have use of the towers ?? (maybe someone else knows if this is true or not). Text still worked for the area though however I didn't have text at that time.


Caption: Erosion at Sawgrass after Hurricane Matthew. (Oct. 8, 2016)
Quoting 1022. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon everyone. I'm glad to report that The Bahamas has survived Hurricane Matthew fairly well, all things considered. Things are likely to continue to be a bit tough here for at least another week, but I am in Sbux having a coffee and checking in. We have had extensive wind damage and surge already the south coast was high. So far, though, no loss of life has been confirmed. Everything else can be recovered, in time. Prayers to the Carolina coast residents who are likely to see a bad surge event.

I'll be checking in sporadically as data permits.

Good to hear from you! And good that old reliable, Starbucks, is open. Take care.
1034. hydrus
.
1035. AVL
Maybe the Doc and Bob can watch a lil football and get a nap today...
Quoting 1022. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon everyone. I'm glad to report that The Bahamas has survived Hurricane Matthew fairly well, all things considered. Things are likely to continue to be a bit tough here for at least another week, but I am in Sbux having a coffee and checking in. We have had extensive wind damage and surge already the south coast was high. So far, though, no loss of life has been confirmed. Everything else can be recovered, in time. Prayers to the Carolina coast residents who are likely to see a bad surge event.

I'll be checking in sporadically as data permits.



I don't chime in to the big discussions much, but had to say I'm very happy to see you're OK.
😀😀😀
Nicole regenerating COC, sheared by Matthews outflow
1038. Patrap
Quoting 1031. llpj04:


same thing happened here during Katrina. Some said the phone companies did that on purpose to make it easier for emergency services to have use of the towers ?? Text still worked for the area though however I didn't have text at that time.


That's utter nonsense.

When it struck the gulf coast, she knocked out the systems. The only reason text was available was the cell towers have a battery back up that allows pings and text,back then.

Cell tecnology has advanced many folds since.




Quoting 1022. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon everyone. I'm glad to report that The Bahamas has survived Hurricane Matthew fairly well, all things considered. Things are likely to continue to be a bit tough here for at least another week, but I am in Sbux having a coffee and checking in. We have had extensive wind damage and surge already the south coast was high. So far, though, no loss of life has been confirmed. Everything else can be recovered, in time. Prayers to the Carolina coast residents who are likely to see a bad surge event.

I'll be checking in sporadically as data permits.



There you are :D

Glad you're alright.
1040. ncstorm
NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC

[12:32 PM Oct 8] This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the Grand Strand and Conway! Incredible flash flooding is expected in Horry County!
Heavy rains from Matthew interacting with the front have spread pretty far north and inland. My brother in Charlotte NC has had 5". Even as far north as my place in Charlottesville, Va has had 1.25" and there is a heavier band running northeast through Virginia up to Dover, DE.
Florence,SC probably close to 10" where I'm at. Radar estimated looks realistic. Urban flooding at my house worse than last October. Too much too fast.

Wind is really picking up. 40 estimated sustained with higher gusts. No power since 7AM. Trees down on lines.

Quoting 1002. Patrap:

Rain totals




Nicole is making a comeback. ASCAT found maximum winds of near 45 mph, and this before was the ongoing convective burst. After looking horrible earlier today, it looks much better now.
1044. MZT
Certainly does look the case that Matthew will lift out to the NE, as is traditional with Atlantic storms. That will put rain over N.C. and the eastern side of S.C. for a long time. That may be the principal "surprise" out the system for the USA.
Winds starting to pick up on Hatteras Island, and the surf looks angry something! Rain coming and going in spurts. Since Dare County officials have elected not to restrict vacationers' access to the island despite the warnings from the NWS (the words "life-threatening" and "dangerous" were used quite prominently...) I'm spending my day instructing guests on where to park their vehicles that may not get quite as much storm surge, and exactly how strong a 70 mph gust is.

Hope to keep everyone updated. Glad to see a weakening system, but I know that even a TS can have devastating effects for the unprepared!
1046. MZT
Quoting 1045. AllTideUpOBX:

Winds starting to pick up on Hatteras Island, and the surf looks angry something! Rain coming and going in spurts.
From radar it's looking like the OBX is east enough that it will get internittent rain, from the remaining bands. The I-95 corridor will soak all day long.
Helicopter footage from Ponte Verde Beach. Seems as if they did get hit particularly hard by the surge.

1048. Brock31
Gusting to 56 knots down at the beach. Getting some good gusts here. Power out a couple of times but still on...for the moment. Hearing a lot of transformers popping.
.
Still concerned about the rain after this thing eventually turn east.
Looks like major flooding imminent from just east of Florence, SC eastward to the coast and northward on the eastern side of I-95 out toward the coast of NC.

Interior areas south and east of Fayetteville, NC have already had punishing rains with much more to come.

Quoting 1044. MZT:

Certainly does look the case that Matthew will lift out to the NE, as is traditional with Atlantic storms. That will put rain over N.C. and the eastern side of S.C. for a long time. That may be the principal "surprise" out the system for the USA.
1050. Brock31
Quoting 1047. daddyjames:

Helicopter footage from Ponte Verde Beach. Seems as if they did get hit particularly hard by the surge.




Looks like the barrier island served its purpose.
1051. sharqi
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=27.50;-79.21;6&l=gust&w =0xIAb9A9A

Wind map, very trippy. Hope the link works!
Quoting 1018. thetwilightzone:

NICOLE may be are last named storm of the season has wind shear is starting too take over the the fall and winter time moths not saying we could still get one more named storm out there but it looks like are hurricane season is comeing too a closed/end after NICOLE


Carribean still looks pretty favorable. Wilma formed October 15, south of Jamaica...and who knows what Nicole is doing...generally agree though
Re 1047:

daddy james, I honestly don't know how you can say that. That looks really bad to me, and I lived in PVB for awhile.

Strange that the only people who seem to be talking about it not being that bad, or "dodging the bullet" are people south of Brevard or else who are inland a bit. I know I've missed a lot but I have yet to hear somebody living on the coast or one of the barrier islands pipe up and say it wasn't that bad.
1054. ncstorm
Just remember NE SC/ and Eastern NC..this heavy rain event is supposed to last until tomorrow morning..

We are only 1/3rd of the way in..

Quoting 1053. LesBonsTemps:

Re 1047:

daddy james, I honestly don't know how you can say that. That looks really bad to me, and I lived in PVB for awhile.

Strange that the only people who seem to be talking about it not being that bad, or "dodging the bullet" are people south of Brevard or else who are inland a bit. I know I've missed a lot but I have yet to hear somebody living on the coast or one of the barrier islands pipe up and say it wasn't that bad.


LBT - what exactly did I say? I said in that post that Ponte Verde was hit hard by the surge. Or were you referring to my previous statements?
1056. MZT
Sky is beginning to brighten a bit in Gaston county, I hear some of the wrap-around wind coming to clear things out. The remainder of the day could still be nice.
1057. ncstorm
Quoting 1049. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like major flooding imminent from just east of Florence, SC eastward to the coast and northward on the eastern side of I-95 out toward the coast of NC.

Interior areas south and east of Fayetteville, NC have already had punishing rains with much more to come.




I have family in Darlington/Hartsville and they said they are without power/sewer and experiencing just nothing but heavy rain..

Everyone be safe out there..
Heavy rain in Durham, NC. Lots of flooding expected, especially east of here.
Quoting 1046. MZT:

From radar it's looking like the OBX is east enough that it will get internittent rain, from the remaining bands. The I-95 corridor will soak all day long.


Same thing I'm seeing. I have a lot of coworkers from out in that area, a lot of our housekeeping staff. Worried for all of them from the rain flooding than I am for myself with the storm surge here. I was young when Floyd came through, but I remember watching the flood crest levels at the end of each day.
TWC needs to tell Mike Sidel to stay off Wrightsville Beach. He keeps walking down the stairs onto the beach and then walking back up the stairs.
In the background you can watch big waves come up and flood the beach with water coming up several of the stairs.
A wave is going to come up from behind and knock him down and possibly suck him OTS. So far he's gotten lucky and got back up on the stairs before the next big wave hits.

Extremely careless behavior being shown.
Quoting 1054. ncstorm:

Just remember NE SC/ and Eastern NC..this heavy rain event is supposed to last until tomorrow morning..

We are only 1/3rd of the way in..



I am in Elizabeth City, NC (about an hour inland from Nags Head) and the wind has already pushed water up into the low parts of the streets near the river. The piers across the street are also already nearly covered with water as well the tide is so high.
Quoting 1050. Brock31:



Looks like the barrier island served its purpose.
Is that a boat or a house in the area of the island that was breached? If it were a levee, I am pretty sure that would be considered a failure.
Quoting 1058. DurhamWeatherLover:

Heavy rain in Durham, NC. Lots of flooding expected, especially east of here.


Stay safe and dry! I used to live out your way and I know how bad the roads can get with a lot of rain.
Quoting 1062. Bigwinds:

Is that a boat or a house in the area of the island that was breached? If it were a levee, I am pretty sure that would be considered a failure.


That is a house, built up on pillings. I would believe that "cut" was not there prior to the storm.
1066. MZT
Quoting 1062. Bigwinds:

Is that a boat or a house in the area of the island that was breached? If it were a levee, I am pretty sure that would be considered a failure.
Looks like a house. Barrier islands are basically sand bars that get pushed around and reshaped. Humans have this idea that land should be permenant. But ocean storms wash through them, when the need suits nature. Google "Isabel Inlet".
1067. will45
http://www.bogueinletpier.com/livepiercam.htm


pier taking a beating at Emerald Isle NC
1068. Bartje
Swirl in the central Caribbean....
1069. Walshy
Future Otto for Florida to the Carolina's coming later this month.

Quoting 1022. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon everyone. I'm glad to report that The Bahamas has survived Hurricane Matthew fairly well, all things considered. Things are likely to continue to be a bit tough here for at least another week, but I am in Sbux having a coffee and checking in. We have had extensive wind damage and surge already the south coast was high. So far, though, no loss of life has been confirmed. Everything else can be recovered, in time. Prayers to the Carolina coast residents who are likely to see a bad surge event.

I'll be checking in sporadically as data permits.


Good to see you and your country are in reasonable shape and no one has perished.
Quoting 1060. Sfloridacat5:

TWC needs to tell Mike Sidel to stay off Wrightsville Beach. He keeps walking down the stairs onto the beach and then walking back up the stairs.
In the background you can watch big waves come up and flood the beach with water coming up several of the stairs.
A wave is going to come up from behind and knock him down and possibly suck him OTS. So far he's gotten lucky and got back up on the stairs before the next big wave hits.

Extremely careless behavior being shown.

Or he just has "love for the storm", like many fanatics out there. And that's what makes him good at his job!
1072. nash36
This wind is relentless! It just won't quit.
Quoting 1069. Walshy:

Future Otto for Florida to the Carolina's coming later this month.




but it looks like after FL land fall or even be for it turns EXTRATROP
1074. hydrus
Quoting 1065. ncstorm:

Cape fear River at the Battleship Web Cam..

I am just to the North of you in New Bern. Trent river coming up fast in my back yard.
Quoting 1071. yankees440:


Or he just has "love for the storm", like many fanatics out there. And that's what makes him good at his job!
to the extent his job is to be a role model or at least promote safe behavior, he is an utter failure at his job
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6 minHá 6 minutos
Still more than a foot of rain to fall across eastern North Carolina as #Matthew plods along. > 4 trillion gallons

Got electricity back lastnight. There was a downed live wire around the corner that prompted them to get the hood up before some the main roads even. My neighbor got her roof covered. The whole thing pealed off. They had extensive fence damage. We've been pushing ours back up straight. It's a good day here to fix leaning things like plants/fences before they set, flattening things that got warped, and making starts of some of the plants and trees that snapped or fell badly.
1079. MZT
Video taken 3 hours ago from Frying Pan tower, 34 miles offshore of N.C.
Frying Pan Tower Video Link

1080. ncstorm
Quoting 1075. NCwatcher:


I am just to the North of you in New Bern. Trent river coming up fast in my back yard.


and this is just the rainfall/surge..rivers are going to crest after Monday and its just going to keep causing hurt for a lot folks..
Our power is flickering... Wind has picked up in gusts.
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-NC125619BAD78C.FlashFloodWarning.12 5619BB9C08NC.RAHFFSRAH.60b70f6ed7afaf8901c9964e7d8 8dd2b from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:27 EDT on 10-08-2016
Effective: 12:27 EDT on 10-08-2016
Expires: 17:30 EDT on 10-08-2016
Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
...THE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR
HOKE...CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES...

AT 1222 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREAS. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY. IN ADDITION...THE
RHODES LAKE DAM NEAR GODWIN IN EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY HAS FAILED
AND US301 IS FLOODED AND INTERSTATE 95 MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL.
EIGHT
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN FAYETTEVILLE AND AN ADDITIONAL 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON... RAEFORD...FORT BRAGG...HARRELLS...
GODWIN...POPE AFB...JEROME...ANTIOCH AND HOPE MILLS.
Instructions: MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU MUST DO SO TO ESCAPE THE FLOODING OR ARE UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER. IF YOU ARE IN A LOW LYING AREA...ALONG A CREEK OR STREAM...OR IN AN AREA EXPERIENCING FLOODING...TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE LIVING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RHODES LAKE DAM SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW AS FLOODING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
Target Area:
Cumberland
Hoke
Sampson
1083. ncstorm
678
WWUS82 KILM 081714
SPSILM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053 -054-081915-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
BLADENBORO...WHITEVILLE...TABOR CITY...CHADBOURN...
LAKE WACCAMAW...BURGAW...SURF CITY...WILMINGTON...MASONBORO...
MYRTLE GROVE...OGDEN...CAROLINA BEACH...SEAGATE...
BOILING SPRING LAKES...LELAND...SHALLOTTE...OAK ISLAND...
LONG BEACH...SOUTHPORT...SUNSET BEACH...BENNETTSVILLE...MCCOLL...
HARTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...NORTH HARTSVILLE...DILLON...FLORENCE...
MARION...MULLINS...CONWAY...RED HILL...MYRTLE BEACH...SOCASTEE...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...GARDEN CITY...LITTLE RIVER
114 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN...

TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT...AND MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 6
TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING UP TO ONE
FOOT OF RAIN IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. MANY ROADS ARE ALREADY
IMPASSABLE AND CLOSED...AND A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY WAS RECENTLY
ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING FLASH FLOODING NEAR MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALTHOUGH MATTHEW HAS MADE LANDFALL...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...AND RAINFALL RATES ARE INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO AS MUCH AS
4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE FORECAST. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CREATE
DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
. ROADWAY
WASHOUTS AND EARTHEN DAM FAILURES ARE LIKELY. MANY HOMES AND
STRUCTURES COULD BE FLOODED IN THEIR LOWEST LEVEL. SOME
NEIGHBORHOODS MAY BE CUT OFF DUE TO FLOODED ROADS.
Urban flooding occurring in Raleigh. Glad we are on a hill. Wind has really picked up in the las hour, some large branches from 75-100 foot trees falling in our neighborhood. One hit our roof, ok so far but will have to get the roof checked after all is done. Power outages, but not our street yet.

And this is only a small taste of what's been going on elsewhere. Glad no one in our home has to go anywhere today. Stay safe y'all.
We are getting moisture from Matthew + the moisture from a front up here in D.C.We need the rain anyway as we still have a deficit for the year.
Quoting 1084. weblackey:

Urban flooding occurring in Raleigh. Glad we are on a hill. Wind has really picked up in the las hour, some large branches from 75-100 foot trees falling in our neighborhood. One hit our roof, ok so far but will have to get the roof checked after all is done. Power outages, but not our street yet.

And this is only a small taste of what's been going on elsewhere. Glad no one in our home has to go anywhere today. Stay safe y'all.


Same happening in Durham now. The wind really picked up about 30 minutes ago. The gusts are more than I was expecting here. Power flickering too.
Any word on Savannah and Charleston areas?
1088. will45
Quoting 1084. weblackey:

Urban flooding occurring in Raleigh. Glad we are on a hill. Wind has really picked up in the las hour, some large branches from 75-100 foot trees falling in our neighborhood. One hit our roof, ok so far but will have to get the roof checked after all is done. Power outages, but not our street yet.

And this is only a small taste of what's been going on elsewhere. Glad no one in our home has to go anywhere today. Stay safe y'all.


yes i see and they are playing a football game there how weird
Quoting 1088. will45:



yes i see and they are playing a football game there how weird


My sister is going to the game too. I told her she was crazy!
Water rescues are occurring in Fayetteville already.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Ed PiotrowskiConta verificada
‏@EdPiotrowski
Springmain Pier in #MyrtleBeach is gone.
Chapel Hill - UNC vs. Va. Tech at 3.30. As of a short while ago the game was ON, but I can't believe it will go ahead. Think what the situation will be like then.
From Clayton, NC 20 miles SE of Raleigh center. Already 5" of rain this morning since about 7:00 a.m. and pouring to beat the band. Winds 20-30 and higher in gusts. Creek in my backyard is unable to hold the runoff and is way out of the banks. We have a sloping lot and so far so good with respect to house washing downhill. Still have power but doubt it can withstand this breeze very much longer.

Also have interests in Swansboro between Morehead and Wilmington which seem to be taking a pretty good lashing.

As always hoping for the best for all who will be affected, but fear another Floyd-level flood or worse for eastern NC with much damage and possible loss of life. Farmers who have crops still in the field will fare particularly badly.



Quoting 1092. Luisport:

Ed PiotrowskiConta verificada
‏@EdPiotrowski
Springmain Pier in #MyrtleBeach is gone.


Extensive damage also to Jacksonville Beach pier.
Anyone have info on Wrightsville Beach situation? Thanks.
1097. nash36
Update-

Our power has been out since 10am. Four trees behind our house were snapped or completely uprooted. Two power poles snapped in half.