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Hurricane Matthew Spares Florida Major Winds; Dangerous Storm Surge and Rains Arrive

By: Jeff Masters 4:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2016

Hurricane Matthew has spared Florida the worst. A mighty Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds when it devastated Grand Bahama Island on Thursday, Matthew underwent a collapse of its inner eyewall on Thursday evening, which resulted in the hurricane weakening dramatically. Now a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds as of the 11 am EDT Friday advisory, Matthew has yet to generate sustained winds of hurricane force anywhere in Florida, though a gust of 107 mph was recorded on Cape Canaveral this morning. Matthew’s center came within 30 miles of Cape Canaveral, but the western eyewall of the storm has, for the most part, remained barely offshore today.


Figure 1. Hurricane Matthew radar at 11:33 am EDT Friday, October 7, 2016, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on. Storm surge levels of 1.2 - 2.4’ were along the east coast of Florida.

Intensity forecast: a slow weakening of Matthew
Satellite loops on Friday morning showed a solid but not spectacular major hurricane, with plenty of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops in the eyewall. However, the eye had gotten less prominent since Thursday, and the intensity of the thunderstorms had decreased. Matthew will encounter steadily more unfavorable conditions for intensification over the next three days. Wind shear, now a moderate 15 knots, will rise to the high range, above 20 knots, by tonight. The ocean temperature will cool as Matthew progresses to the north, and dry air will be attacking from the west. The combination of cooler ocean temperatures, high wind shear and dry air should act to significantly weaken Matthew to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday night, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina.


Figure 2. Heavy rainfall from Matthew will be a huge concern, particularly over coastal South Carolina and southern North Carolina, as this graphic from the NWS in Wilmington, North Carolina illustrates.

Track forecast: landfall risk is greatest in South Carolina
Matthew is tracking right along the coast of Florida today, and we can expect that portions of the coast may occasionally see the west eyewall of the storm move over. This will bring hurricane-force wind gusts, but not sustained hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. There is perhaps a 20% chance that Matthew will take a wobble to the west that would take the core of the hurricane ashore over the coast between Daytona Beach and Jacksonville, bringing sustained hurricane-force winds to the coast, though. The greater danger of hurricane-force winds at the coast is to South Carolina. The 00Z Friday runs of our four top models for forecasting hurricane tracks—the GFS, European, UKMET and HWRF—showed that Matthew will track very close to the coast of Florida and Georgia today and early Saturday morning, then potentially make landfall on the coast of South Carolina Saturday morning near 6 am EDT. The 06Z Friday runs of the GFS and HWRF model showed this, as well. The range of solutions for these various model runs was to take the storm inland by up to 30 miles or keep it offshore by about 30 miles, just south of Charleston. In their 11 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in South Carolina to Charleston (45%.) The highest odds in North Carolina were at Bald Head Island (22%), and the highest odds in Georgia were at King’s Bay (37%).

While it’s going to be a close call whether or not Matthew makes landfall in South Carolina, this drama is not going to be the major factor controlling how much total storm damage occurs there. Matthew is likely to be a weakening Category 2 storm when it makes its closest approach to the South Carolina coast, and the amount of wind damage the storm can deliver to the state will be modest, even if it makes a direct hit on Charleston. The bigger threat to South Carolina is storm surge and fresh water flooding damage, which will happen to South Carolina regardless of whether or not the eye moves ashore or remains just offshore. Rainfall amounts in excess of a foot are expected along the coast of South Carolina and into southern North Carolina, in a region where soils are saturated and rivers are high due to near-record heavy rains over the past few weeks. Matthew’s heavy rains are likely to result in major damaging flooding, which will be magnified by the fact rivers won’t be able to drain into the ocean due to storm surge.

Record to near-record storm surge possible in far north Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
Matthew’s failure to move inland and weaken over central Florida is good news for them but bad news for the coasts of north Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. A stronger Matthew means a larger storm surge farther to the north. Matthew’s eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was also a good news/bad news situation: while the ERC reduced the hurricane’s peak winds from Category 4 to Category 3, strong winds have now spread out over a wider area, which will increase the storm surge, due to all the extra water that will be put in motion by an expanded wind field. To illustrate, tropical storm-force winds extended 160 miles to the northeast of Matthew’s center at 11 am Thursday, but by 11 am Friday, these winds had expanded to extend outwards 185 miles from the center. At 11 am EDT Friday, the coast from just south of Cape Canaveral, FL to just south of Wilmington, NC was under a storm surge warning under a prototype NHC system expected to become operational next year. As Matthew moves northward, the northeast winds ahead of it will pile water against the coastline, leading to what could be record or near-record storm surges in some areas. The Friday morning discussion from the NWS in Charleston, South Carolina warned that:

Persistent and strong northeast winds have allowed for numerous previous tide cycles, even at low tide, to reach far above predicted levels. This pattern will continue and get even more hazardous as Matthew approaches the area from the south later today and tonight. There will be at least moderate coastal flooding with the midday high tide, but it's the high tide around 12-2 am tonight that's the most concerning when significant coastal flooding will likely occur. Tide levels are forecast to approach or even surpass those during October of 2015, meaning levels could exceed 8.0 ft MLLW at Charleston and more than 11.0 ft MLLW at ft. Pulaski. This would be the second highest crest on record for Ft. Pulaski, exceeded only by hurricane David which produced a 12.21 foot crest in 1979. It would also be in the top 5 or 10 crests on record for Charleston. These levels will be accompanied by moderate or heavy rains, creating an extremely dangerous situation for coastal areas and in downtown Charleston. Tybee Island will become cut off!

The forecasted inundation continues to be 4-8 ft for South Carolina and 7-11 ft for Georgia. Some coastal locations could experience the worst storm surge since Hurricane Hugo with devastating impacts.


Update: The 11 am Friday NHC advisory reduced the expected peak storm surge inundation for Georgia to 6 - 9 feet.

Major storm surge flooding had yet to materialize from Matthew on Friday morning at any of our tide gauges on Friday morning--though there were reports of serious storm surge flooding occurring in St. Augustine, Florida, where we do not have a tide gauge. At 11 am EDT Friday, persistent onshore winds associated with Matthew’s circulation were pushing a storm surge of 2.4 feet to the Florida/Georgia border at Fernandina Beach, 2.0 feet to Jacksonville, Florida at Mayport Bar, 1.2 feet to Savannah, Georgia near Fort Pulaski and 1.4 feet to Charleston, South Carolina, as seen on our wundermap with the “Storm Surge” layer turned on, or the NOAA Tides and Currents storm page for Matthew, or storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham’s U-SURGE page for Matthew. Dr. Needham has some excellent information on the storm surge history of the north Florida to southern South Carolina coast in a Friday morning blog post, The "Protected Coast" is Now the Most Dangerous Place of All.

Long range forecast for Matthew: a loop-de-loop
Our top two hurricane track models—the GFS and European—continue to show high pressure building in to the north of Matthew this weekend, blocking the hurricane’s forward path. Matthew is expected to loop back towards the south and southwest, potentially reaching The Bahamas by Tuesday. Along the way, though, Matthew may draw close enough to Hurricane Nicole to force the two storms to rotate around a common center—something known as the Fujiwhara effect. This behavior can occur when two storms get within 800 miles of each other. This potential interaction with Nicole on Sunday and Monday makes the 3 - 5 day forecast for Matthew’s track of higher uncertainty than usual-though if anything, it is most likely to reinforce the expected northward track of Nicole and southward track of Matthew. One thing we are confident of: Matthew will be a much weaker storm by Tuesday when it makes its closest approach to the Bahamas. High wind shear of 30 - 50 knots is expected to affect Matthew Sunday through Tuesday, along with very dry air—humidities at mid-levels of the atmosphere are expected to drop to 20% by Monday, which is bound to cause significant weakening of the storm. If Matthew does pass through The Bahamas on Tuesday, it would likely be no stronger than a 35 mph tropical depression.


Figure 4. Track forecasts from the four European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Friday, October 7, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Friday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. All of these forecasts show Matthew doing a loop over the waters east of The Bahamas, with three of them showing Matthew moving through The Bahamas. The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform better than other ensemble members at forecast times of five days and beyond. The grey crosses along the Gulf Coast are the locations of oil wells, as this forecast tool was designed primarily for use by the oil and gas industry. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

We’ll be back with our next update by late this afternoon. Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.

Jeff Masters
Calm before Hurricane Matthew
Calm before Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel 31 minHá 31 minutos Geórgia, USA
Dangerous FL flooding: NOAA tidal gauge at Fernandina Beach 3rd highest water level recorded. 6.91 ft above navd88 datum #flwx #Matthew
502. HCW
Quoting 496. lightningjolt:

McIntosh cnty getting gusts of 47 mph now
Many areas under tornado watches.


There is only 1 active Tornado watch
503. IDTH
Quoting 481. Luisport:

WRAL NEWS in NCConta verificada
‏@WRAL
McCrory: "What we feared is now happening...the model has changed and that change will have a major impact on NC." #Matthew

I saw and I'm basically done worrying about people I know if they don't want to listen to me.
 
WGUS52 KJAX 071940  
FFWJAX  
FLC089-072245-  
/O.NEW.KJAX.FF.W.0003.161007T1940Z-161007T2245Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016  
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR EGANS CREEK AMELIA ISLAND
 
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM EDT  
 
* AT 328 PM EDT...MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS MOVING DOWN EGANS  
CREEK ON AMELIA ISLAND. AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTH OF THE  
AREA THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE  
IS GOING TO BE PUSHED DOWN THE CREEK. PERSONS REMAINING NEAR THE  
GREEN WAY FROM ATLANTIC BLVD...STATE ROAD 200 SOUTH TO SIMMONS  
ROAD NEED TO SEEK HIGH GROUND IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE WIND SWITCHES  
DIRECTION.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR... JEAN LAFITTE  
BLVD...BLACKBEARD PLACE...STARBOARD LANDING...PORTSIDE  
DRIVE...CROSSWINDS DRIVE...OCEAN SOUND DRIVE...OCEAN BLUFF  
DRIVE...OCEAN OAKS DRIVE NORTH AND SOUTH...SEA GROVE LANE...SADLER  
ROAD NEAR EGANS CREEK...HIGH RIGGER ROAD...ROBERT OLIVER  
AVENUE...OCEAN RIDGE DRIVE...AMELIA TERRACE COURT  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND  
NOW!  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
FERNANDINA BEACH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND  
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE  
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3067 8142 3062 8143 3062 8145 3067 8144  
 
 
Quoting 478. JNFlori30A:

not even close (sad to say)

Wellll, maybe not the lamest. But it's in the top 10, of the most asinine.
Quoting 483. BobinTampa:

Stephanie Abrams sure likes talking about how dumb her friends are.

Say "my friends 20 miles in" one more time. I Dare you. lol
Quoting 490. pvbeachbum:

Action News 4 Jax is reporting that part of the Jax Beach pier has washed away. When it was rebuilt after Hurricane Floyd destroyed it, it was built with breakaway zones to prevent damage to the whole pier, so hopefully it functioned as designed. Earlier pictures showed it absolutely covered in huge waves.


They showed it on live tv not long ago.
Why is Stephanie Abrams still on the air. She keeps saying the same thing over and over and over. Good god, find something new to talk about.
Quoting 497. BaltimoreBrian:

I am glad the core of Matthew has mostly stayed offshore.


We were just watching a video of a weather channel meteorologist saying that it actually would have been better for Matthew to have come on land because it would have disrupted the center reducing its intensity and travel speed etc. He said the eye wall grazing the coast like this--like a buzz saw grinding its way through a large swath of area – is actually a worst-case scenario. Many hurricanes have ended up being rather destructive this way
Quoting 484. lightningjolt:

Report of A tornado right now in Chatham County. It just took down some trees 2 miles SW of I16/I95


That's Savannah right?
my pier!!
is it possible Matthew Strengthens a bit, its going N and the coast pulls NNW, so he is going to put some distance between him and the coast
Quoting 513. aquak9:

my pier!!


I'm not sure that's confirmed. They reported it earlier then showed it on live tv. The pier was still in tact at the time.
Quoting 508. BobinTampa:

Why is Stephanie Abrams still on the air. She keeps saying the same thing over and over and over. Good god, find something new to talk about.


If she wants to stop being misconstrued, she could start by shutting her pie hole...


Two models still have Matthew riding up through the Carolinas and exiting off of the DelMarVa.

Anybody persuaded?
Quoting 501. Luisport:

Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel 31 minHá 31 minutos Geórgia, USA
Dangerous FL flooding: NOAA tidal gauge at Fernandina Beach 3rd highest water level recorded. 6.91 ft above navd88 datum #flwx #Matthew
The St. Simons tide gauge has hit a new record high by 0.22 feet---2 hours after high tide.
Quoting 511. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's Savannah right?


Yes.
Quoting 513. aquak9:

my pier!!
it will be rebuild u can time lapse the construction laters
It looks like Matthew is trying to get an inner eye wall going again. Look at the Jacksonville radar. It's pulling away from land and tying to regroup.
Quoting 488. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Sigh. Forecast depends on incoming cold front and then an occluded front leaving Matthew in the middle of the ocean.
Quoting 455. KeithD:



Haven't seen any station reporting sustained winds above 60 mph. please link to your source for 115 mph sustained at 1600 EDT.
I believe that was the hourly NHC coordinates report. The last flight into the storm verified 115 max winds and the pressure - that doesn't mean that those winds are coming on shore, but this is definitely a hurricane, looks like a hurricane, moves like a hurricane, has the winds of a hurricane, the pressure of a hurricane, the structure of a hurricane and all of the damage potential of a hurricane - the winds measured at local points along the west side of its track don't alter that fact. I believe that some on this blog have said for days that the wind field on the left side of the storm is smaller and that Florida was unlikely to see any sustained hurricane force winds and that the damage was going to be significantly less than what was reported. That didn't mean that there was going to be no wind or flooding or damage, or that there still won't be. It's good to be pessimistic, but not to the point of being unrealistic.
Looking and feeling very tropical outside! Heavier rain moving in now, but so far only light breezes.
Quoting 517. PPUGrad04:



Two models still have Matthew riding up through the Carolinas and exiting off of the DelMarVa.

Anybody persuaded?
nope it will do a loop de loop back into Miami as a TS mid next week then head sw to die in the southern boc after that
the outer end of my pier is gone, awwww

I mean about 2/3 of the pier is still there, but the outer third is gone. Dagnabbit.

Lotta water coming into JaxBeach, into the roads. Doesn't look like I'm gonna be going to the beach any time soon.
Just wanted to say did anyone look at the Euro....We still have Matthew in 10 days.........Lol
Quoting 518. BaltimoreBrian:

The St. Simons tide gauge has hit a new record high by 0.22 feet---2 hours after high tide.
on the NWS site, it looks like it peaked.
Quoting 517. PPUGrad04:



Two models still have Matthew riding up through the Carolinas and exiting off of the DelMarVa.

Anybody persuaded?
Nope. I would argue that the track could shift to call for an earlier turn east and then south based on those runs.
Quoting 529. Methurricanes:

on the NWS site, it looks like it peaked.
Well the tide is going out down there.
Quoting 527. aquak9:

the outer end of my pier is gone, awwww

I mean about 2/3 of the pier is still there, but the outer third is gone. Dagnabbit.

Lotta water coming into JaxBeach, into the roads. Doesn't look like I'm gonna be going to the beach any time soon.


At least it isn't the whole thing!
Quoting 501. Luisport:

Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel 31 minHá 31 minutos Geórgia, USA
Dangerous FL flooding: NOAA tidal gauge at Fernandina Beach 3rd highest water level recorded. 6.91 ft above navd88 datum #flwx #Matthew


Quoting 465. flibinite:


All Florida coastal residents should be forced to watch videos like this. It's very possible that things in St. Augustine could have been even worse, and now the authorities would have to try to rescue 20 people, including children? I've seen more videos like this, where parents have put their children in serious harm's way, just because they wouldn't evacuate, and even though I don't know their individual situations, such people/parents should be completely ashamed, at least, and charged with reckless endangerment, at most. :-(

Jo


The voice in that video was Reed Timmer (a storm chaser). So he must be driving around in the surge filming. But I can easily recognize his voice.
Quoting 527. aquak9:

the outer end of my pier is gone, awwww

I mean about 2/3 of the pier is still there, but the outer third is gone. Dagnabbit.

Lotta water coming into JaxBeach, into the roads. Doesn't look like I'm gonna be going to the beach any time soon.

u are not allowed out till after sunset
tomorrow will be better
how the garden fare so far
Parts of A1A washed out. That's crazy.
Quoting 514. Methurricanes:

is it possible Matthew Strengthens a bit, its going N and the coast pulls NNW, so he is going to put some distance between him and the coast
It's not just the land that's going to weaken Matthew - shallower water, cooler water, shear and dry air will also play roles that are expected to increase in significance from this point on.
Quoting 530. lexslamman:

Nope. I would argue that the track could shift to call for an earlier turn east and then south based on those runs.


Haven't you been calling for Matthew to shift east for days now?

Yes, you have. You don't need to answer. That was a rhetorical question.
Quoting 530. lexslamman:

Nope. I would argue that the track could shift to call for an earlier turn east and then south based on those runs.


Except that the NHC had this hitting 80.7W, then turning N. It did just that, so...
USGS most recent stream flow data for Florida.
Stations highlighted in red are above flood stage.

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=fl&id= flood-table
Mark Sudduth ‏@hurricanetrack 22m
The water rising along I-95 near Brunswick GA is alarming because it's still so early. Surge is only feet from shoulder in low lying spots.
541. MAstu
the surge maps being shown on TWC are being way misrepresented. It's a 10% chance of exceeding that value. They're presenting it as there WILL be at least 6 feet when they should be saying there is a 10% of chance of exceeding 6 feet.
Garden's gonna be fine, keep. Only gotta few plants, less than 4" tall.

Our beaches gonna be a whole nuther story, though. They'll close them all till it's safe. Lord only knows what'll have
washed up.
Reports of water all the way into Flagler College in St. Augustine. Unbelievable.
Quoting 534. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


u are not allowed out till after sunset
tomorrow will be better
how the garden fare so far

Charleston on curfew from midnight to 6 am
5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
Location: 30.2°N 80.7°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
Quoting 531. BaltimoreBrian:

Well the tide is going out down there.
Due to the quadrant of the storm it's currently in, the wind is no longer moving onshore, but parallel to the shore. As long as that is the case, Matthew is no longer fetching water into the back bays and estuaries in that area. That should be a huge relief to that entire area of coast.
Oh thank goodness, Matthew finally lost it's major status
trying to rebuild his core but I dud no may just be some last gasps

14L
Back down to a Cat-2 (110 mph), might landfall near Mt. Pleasant and Bald Head Island before sharply hooking south.
Quoting 542. aquak9:

Garden's gonna be fine, keep. Only gotta few plants, less than 4" tall.

Our beaches gonna be a whole nuther story, though. They'll close them all till it's safe. Lord only knows what'll have
washed up.
make for some interesting beachcombing laters in a few days
Quoting 538. nash36:



Except that the NHC had this hitting 80.7W, then turning N. It did just that, so...
Short term versus long term. The most reliable models appear to have it turning east of 0 degrees faster than the NHC track.
Quoting 537. PPUGrad04:



Haven't you been calling for Matthew to shift east for days now?

Yes, you have. You don't need to answer. That was a rhetorical question.
Absolutely, and it did - it went from a NW heading to a NNW heading to a N heading. No issues there.
Quoting 547. Icybubba:

Oh thank goodness, Matthew finally lost it's major status
it has since after 2 pm
Wow, I just saw video of high water in Flagler College.

http://bit.ly/2dQdFpu
Quoting 538. nash36:



Except that the NHC had this hitting 80.7W, then turning N. It did just that, so...


He's been eastcasting all week. I tried to put him on my ignore list, but it hasn't worked, and I can't let inane, dangerous comments such as that one go unanswered.
Curfew hits in an hr for Dorchester County.

Wrap it up, folks. It's almost game time.
Actually I don't think that video shows Flagler College... hold on.

Go to Action News Jacksonville on Facebook to see the video.
Quoting 556. DurhamWeatherLover:

Wow, I just saw video of high water in Flagler College.

http://bit.ly/2dQdFpu


That's the B&B next to the Tini Martini.
Quoting 557. PPUGrad04:



He's been eastcasting all week. I tried to put him on my ignore list, but it hasn't worked, and I can't let inane, dangerous comments such as that one go unanswered.


We're within 12hrs here.

There is absolutely NO WAY the NHC screws the pooch in a 12hr timeframe. Whether this makes landfall and goes inland as far as Summerville, or the eye scrapes the coast of Charleston, the effects will be severe.
A ttrained weather spotter reported that surge has undermined houses in edisto beach and the surge has come over Palmetto Boulevard. . ( PS. I'm just passing along what I'm seeing on storm weather app as people are posting what they see. If you want to see all these reports, just turn on the feature "local storm reports". This is not official but it is eyewitness accounts )
Quoting 557. PPUGrad04:



He's been eastcasting all week. I tried to put him on my ignore list, but it hasn't worked, and I can't let inane, dangerous comments such as that one go unanswered.


It seems every time there is a disagreement one party accuses the other of dangerous propaganda? You do realize this is a blog comment inviting discussion right?
Quoting 557. PPUGrad04:



He's been eastcasting all week. I tried to put him on my ignore list, but it hasn't worked, and I can't let inane, dangerous comments such as that one go unanswered.
"eastcasting" is hardly true when it's pretty much stuck within 50 miles of the track I plotted out on Sunday. But that's okay. At least I'm not 'westcasting' using the LBAR and BAMD, eh?
842 killed in Haiti in latest update.
Actual count will probably end up being multiple thousands.
567. AVL
Quoting 561. nash36:



We're within 12hrs here.

There is absolutely NO WAY the NHC screws the pooch in a 12hr timeframe. Whether this makes landfall and goes inland as far as Summerville, or the eye scrapes the coast of Charleston, the effects will be severe.


Screwed the pooch in 12 hrs on landfall in FL
North of Brunswick, GA about 30 miles.

Quoting 500. Greg01:



Where is McIntosh County?
Quoting 564. lexslamman:

"eastcasting" is hardly true when it's pretty much stuck within 50 miles of the track I plotted out on Sunday. But that's okay. At least I'm not 'westcasting' using the LBAR and BAMD, eh?


I asked a legit question. You've made outlandish "predictions". To listen to you all week would be to believe that Matthew would be off the Iberian Peninsula by now.
Quoting 567. AVL:



Screwed the pooch in 12 hrs on landfall in FL


No, they didn't.

The FL coast was in the "cone of uncertainty" which has an average error in either direction. That's been discussed ad nauseum. They said it "could" make landfall on the coast of FL. They never said it would.
Quoting 561. nash36:



We're within 12hrs here.

There is absolutely NO WAY the NHC screws the pooch in a 12hr timeframe. Whether this makes landfall and goes inland as far as Summerville, or the eye scrapes the coast of Charleston, the effects will be severe.
Mind you I have family that is staying around on a barrier island near Charleston, there's no way I would downplay the impacts. Someone has to counter the wild calls for intensification into a 180mph storm and tracks up the spine of Florida or into the Chesapeake Bay on here. If we were being reasonable, objective people on this blog, at least half of us would have been predicting no CONUS landfall from the moment Matthew curved northward to strike Haiti. Forecasting is a matter of probabilities.
572. vis0
ignore the zilly (was for nephew interested in weather) , serious moment just to show its motion visually
image host
stay focused on helping / informing the public
Hmmm...my sister evacuated from folley beach to my other sisters in Dorchester county ,,,lolol...wow

Quoting 558. nash36:

Curfew hits in an hr for Dorchester County.

Wrap it up, folks. It's almost game time.
Making the westerly pass.

Quoting 566. SouthMississippi:



Babble, babble, babble. Does it hurt your brain to have such a distorted world view? I feel like I just wasted 5 minutes of my life reading this.


Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?
NOAA tidal gauge at Fernandina Beach reported that peak water level was 4+ feet above the predicted high tide of 2.9ft davd88 datum
Quoting 528. SFLWeatherman:

Just wanted to say did anyone look at the Euro....We still have Matthew in 10 days.........Lol



Matthew ... the lurker
@Miamivu #555 - Poof!
580. OKsky
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?


He has spent a lifetime tracking storms, but is tired of media "hype".
(IMO, the dude has forgot that this is weather and the difference between "hype" and saving thousands of lives is on a knife's edge)
Quoting 564. lexslamman:

"eastcasting" is hardly true when it's pretty much stuck within 50 miles of the track I plotted out on Sunday. But that's okay. At least I'm not 'westcasting' using the LBAR and BAMD, eh?


And considering the cone only represents roughly 66% probability of where the storm will be. NHC has been spot on too. The concern (and evacs ordered) because of the potential for a landfall... There was also the potential for NO effects to Florida as was mentioned several times in NHC forecasts... Speaking with family in central Florida there is damage. Lots of tree down, city water is down, a lot of private docks destroyed.
Comment remove by poster - apologies - not trying to incite the natives.)
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?


It will better have just one sentence
Quoting 577. OracleDeAtlantis:



Matthew ... the lurker
this is gonna be one of these things that just hangs on and will not go away we still got 10 more days of this
Water rushes through Flagler College in St. Augustine, Florida.
https://twitter.com/jaycamikenGL/status/784500652 802138112?lang=de
I love how someone says they don't like to "Monday morning quarterback" the situation, then goes on to write a 500+ word rant that does just that.
A maximum tide level of 7.47 feet mllw was observed at the Charleston Harbor tide gauge. Shallow coastal flooding typically begins along the lower south Carolina coast when tide levels reach 7 feet in the Charleston Harbor.
589. Tcwx2
Hurricane Matthews impacts stretch out a good ways. Here in South Alabama, winds have just knocked out our power. The strong wind is mainly due to a tight pressure gradient, creating 15-25mph easternly winds in my area.
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?


Babble Babble, etc.
Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


In S C IL, 72 at noon w/ 63 dew pt, now 65 w/ 52 dp & NW winds, which are supposed to pick up. Mid 40s tonight, highs in mid 60s tomorrow, upper 40s Sun morning. Best wishes for all to our SE over next 2 days.
too bad all the tv news peopledont know to check the bouys cause if they did they would see the surge os retreating all over jaxinville at this time.
566. SouthMississippi
4:59 PM EDT on October 07, 2016


and you wasted mine by quoting it
Quoting 570. nash36:



No, they didn't.

The FL coast was in the "cone of uncertainty" which has an average error in either direction. That's been discussed ad nauseum. They said it "could" make landfall on the coast of FL. They never said it would.

In all honesty Florida was never actually a landfall point for the NHC just so close it made you wanna puke. SO (CLAP! CLAP!) nhc!
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?


Trust me, nothing in there was good enough to summarize.
Quoting 498. tdragger:

Anyone who belittles storm surge hasn't the faintest idea of what it is like. Yes, low surge is not a whole lot worse than flooding. High surge, as we had here during Katrina, razor-blades EVERYTHING. And what the storm surge doesn't destroy, the salt water poisons. We didn't even have FIRE ANTS for the first five years after Katrina.

Not to minimize the potential threat that storm surge presents, but there are a lot of differences between the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina and the coast of Mississippi.
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?
In this case, a picture can replace a thousand words.
Kudos to those that are giving helpful information to those that need it most. To the rest:

Quoting 591. dabirds:

In S C IL, 72 at noon w/ 63 dew pt, now 65 w/ 52 dp & NW winds, which are supposed to pick up. Highs in mid 60s tomorrow, upper 40s Sun morning. Best wishes for all to our SE over next 2 days.
front pushes into my area by midnight same tomorrow for us highs around 68 40kmh wind then sunday highs of only 60 with overnight low 36 to 38 with risk of frost outside the city areas
I'm still laughing at "screw the pooch"! Never heard the term - had to look it up!
Quoting 594. George1938:


In all honesty Florida was never actually a landfall point for the NHC just so close it made you wanna puke. SO (CLAP! CLAP!) nhc!


Just keep looking at the line. You do know what the Cone is, right? And that a landfall has been in it since last Friday?
settle down
Quoting 580. OKsky:



He has spent a lifetime tracking storms, but is tired of media "hype".
(IMO, the dude has forgot that this is weather and the difference between "hype" and saving thousands of lives is on a knife's edge)

You know, maybe I was whining a bit at some of the 24/7 bludgeon-like coverage, ...but there's also a knife's edge to when the cure is worse than the illness...didn't mean to offend anyone.
keeper- please keep those temps to yourself, I'm trying to grow some cucumbers down here
thankyouverymuch
miamivu and my mother should strike up a relationship. My mom opens a door that does not face the storm winds and says it's mild out there. She has all the blinds drawn so she can't have her illusion wrecked that it is actually wind driven rain outside. She is firm that was correct to say this was not going to be as bad as the news says and she opens the door the one minute it's calm. All airports are closed. 330,000 people evacuated, hospitals in three counties evacuated and she thinks this is nothing she has not seen. Eye of storm is still 160 miles away. She'll go to bed thinking she's beat the storm. Because she's going to sleep through it. Ignorance is her bliss. She loves the idea of a dusk to 8AM curfew because then all the filthy criminals who are going to rob homes while people are away upstate won't be on the streets. She'll get on the road Monday back to the island and be astonished so many branches are down.
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Could someone summarize that into one paragraph or less for me?


I could, but by the time I got to the bottom of it Matthew had dissipated so there is no point. ;P
still a storm out there with people yet to be affected
lot of water coming for those on the north side as this skirts on by
on the loopy rollercoaster ride back into the southern Bahamas


Spooky seeing it in the local radar
Quoting 601. rpewter55:



Just keep looking at the line. You do know what the Cone is, right? And that a landfall has been in it since last Friday?


Yes I know what the cone is mon frere <3. But their center line. I know what you are saying but you get what I am saying?
Quoting 227. Jarhead6012:



you could have just said you were a Lt. and most of us would figure out you just got lost like most Lt's do
LMAO



One, if I had said that "being lost" that would NOT have been the case (I knew where I was at) and Two, it was a post focused on how fast and severe a tidal inflow (somewhat like a storm surge, although without the accuracy at which it will occur) from a place (Daechon, KS) can happen so quickly that your options are very limited and the time to make them, very short. Yeah, not the best moment of my life and the failure to talk with the "natives" about what the pitfalls could be of not getting back the beach before the tide came streaking in was certainly on me. But there was never an issue of being lost and my point was directed at how you can't control natural forces except to prepare for them in advance.
Quoting 583. Dsntslp:

I have no training in weather forecasting but 50 years of life with more hurricanes than I can count without looking them up gives me some experience. Being prepared for storms is the tradeoff for living in Florida. Prepping year around and stocking up on canned goods and batteries while they are on sale throughout the year is common sense and saves that last minute outlay of big bucks. Milk jugs and two litre bottles can be saved for a few months before storm season begins and utilized as frozen water/tea/ coffee /ice for coolers and refrigerators if the power goes out and once thawed is drinkable. It is very hard for me to feel that this stormed was hyped by the media when it is so hard to determine a point that will be ground zero while it just crawls the coast. I have little to no empathy for those people who wait until the last minute to prep instead of prepping year around. There are very few last minute preps that need to occur if the canned goods and water jugs are already in place. The jugs can later be cut down and used as plant pots or recycled in numerous ways. The only last minute preps should be to put away the stuff on the lawn and put the garbage cans in the garage and put shutters up, test the generator if you have one and get gas.

I think the forecasters did a wonderful job they said all along they DID NOT KNOW if this monster would make landfall but that they more thought it would crawl the coast. It did exactly as they said.

I am so tired of already hearing how people are posting the had just one palm frond to pick up and that they spent their paychecks on supplies while this storm continues to batter the Florida coastline and neighborhoods are flooding. This is NOT supposed to be how it is done. Those same folks complaining are invariably also the first in line for water and the first ones accepting Red Cross food while they have canned goods they could utilize. Idiots. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt and have seen it all first hand more times than I can count.

Thank you. The experts will tell people these predictions are our best guess – they do not have a crystal ball. I posted it before and bears worth repeating that there's only one thing you can count on with a hurricane and that is it is unpredictable Instead of expecting the experts to know what the storm is going to do exactly, a more realistic way of looking at it is to take the expert's best predictions and sprinkle in the hurricane unpredictability factor ( which means the storm could get worse or better).
And because of the unpredictability of a hurricane, always evacuate when it's mandatory, assuming the worst and hoping for the best--every time, even if it's a nuisance..
Quoting 609. George1938:



Yes I know what the cone is mon frere <3. But their center line. I know what you are saying but you get what I am saying?


No, I don't, but then I also read the NHC discussion instead of just looking at a graphic that is clearly described to have a margin of error in it.
Quoting 585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is gonna be one of these things that just hangs on and will not go away we still got 10 more days of this


Like toenail fungus...
Quoting 602. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
settle down
or what Taz said a few days ago-

"ever one needs to clam down"
Wind definitely picking up in Summerville. I heard a crash behind my house during the last gust. I don't know what it was. Probably a smaller branch from one of the countless trees back there. Rain is coming in moderate squalls now. I think it's all downhill from here at this point. Will try to keep you posted throughout the evening.

Stay safe out there.
Quoting 583. Dsntslp:

I have no training in weather forecasting but 50 years of life with more hurricanes than I can count without looking them up gives me some experience. Being prepared for storms is the tradeoff for living in Florida. Prepping year around and stocking up on canned goods and batteries while they are on sale throughout the year is common sense and saves that last minute outlay of big bucks. Milk jugs and two litre bottles can be saved for a few months before storm season begins and utilized as frozen water/tea/ coffee /ice for coolers and refrigerators if the power goes out and once thawed is drinkable. It is very hard for me to feel that this storm was hyped by the media when it is so hard to determine a point that will be ground zero while it just crawls the coast. I have little to no empathy for those people who wait until the last minute to prep instead of prepping year around. There are very few last minute preps that need to occur if the canned goods and water jugs are already in place. The jugs can later be cut down and used as plant pots or recycled in numerous ways. The only last minute preps should be to put away the stuff on the lawn and put the garbage cans in the garage and put shutters up, test the generator if you have one and get gas.

I think the forecasters did a wonderful job, they said all along they DID NOT KNOW if this monster would make landfall but that they more thought it would crawl the coast. It did exactly as they said.

I am so tired of already hearing how people are posting that they had just one palm frond to pick up and that they spent their paychecks on supplies while this storm continues to batter the Florida coastline and neighborhoods are flooding. This is NOT supposed to be how it is done. Those same folks complaining are invariably also the first in line for water and the first ones accepting Red Cross food while they have canned goods they could utilize. Idiots. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt and have seen it all first hand more times than I can count.

Sorry for the rant - am just sick of reading about people being let down that they did not get a storm when they should be thanking their lucky stars they did not have a Cat 4 come ashore. It's disgusting.


I think this should be reposted every 5 minutes, maybe it would contain the whiners...
Quoting 577. OracleDeAtlantis:



Matthew ... the lurker


There or near the Caymans according to the CMC and GFS. If that happens we will all need medication.
Well so much for much of a "low" tide at Ft. Pulaski in Sav Ga. Storm arrival near high tide tonight.

If YOU are on a barrier island or tidal water in Ga or Sc, LEAVE IF YOU CAN! WATER KILLS! Nc, it looks like similar surges may be headed your way. Plan to leave EARLY as water is rising days in advance of Mathew!

Quoting 600. NaplesPatty:

I'm still laughing at "screw the pooch"! Never heard the term - had to look it up!


I'm usually a little more" adult colorful", but I really don't want to get banned with a hurricane heading my way.

So far this storm has done exactly what it was predicted to do almost two weeks ago, starting with the right angle turn to the north that many said was impossible. So much for the unpredictability of hurricanes.
Just a little over 4" of rain so far in central Beaufort County, SC. Not much wind yet, maybe gusts to 30 or 35. We are about 12 miles inland in a one of the better "slosh" zones in the area
Quoting 588. lightningjolt:

A maximum tide level of 7.47 feet mllw was observed at the Charleston Harbor tide gauge. Shallow coastal flooding typically begins along the lower south Carolina coast when tide levels reach 7 feet in the Charleston Harbor.


Water breaching battery wall..tide is otw out...by 4 hours...
EURO still has Matthew active in 9 days as a strong tropical storm over the Bahamas. Wow.
Quoting 612. rpewter55:



No, I don't, but then I also read the NHC discussion instead of just looking at a graphic that is clearly described to have a margin of error in it.


I go from a friendly heart to a -____-. rather more a :S. I read all of those as I have since I was 8 in 2004. Remember most people look at the center line which is basically the center of the prediction. I at home plot along this as the storm is going to track the wobble vs the center line. Now understand?
18ZGFS as far as NC again in this run
Quoting 624. HurricaneFan:

EURO still has Matthew active in 9 days as a strong tropical storm over the Bahamas. Wow.

watch after that the Euro has it coming back to Florida lol, never ending loop.
Looking through videos/photos and looks like a lot of bad damage. As well as conditions starting to get worse in Geogria/SC. :(
Quoting 614. aquak9:
or what Taz said a few days ago-

"ever one needs to clam down"
OH Man- LMAO-I'm grabin my clam rake an headin out right now to git some!
So once old Matthew loops, if it hits Yucatán pen it will most likely die there, right? Dare I ask --it's not going to try to make its way to US GOM coastlines, right?
Update from Murrells Inlet SC, getting some rain and wind / some gusts now. Have no idea what to expect other then FLOODING and more FLOODING. Praying the saturated grounds doesn't give the trees freedom to fly! My heart breaks for this area, as so many still have not recovered from the major floods just one year ago this week.
Here in Goose Creek SC, the rain is intermittent between bands and mostly calm winds. A few times the wind has gusted to 15mph. Nothing crazy yet.
Quoting 630. truecajun:

So once old Matthew loops, if it hits Yucatán pen it will most likely die there, right? Dare I ask --it's not going to try to make its way to US GOM coastlines, right?


i have a feeling he will be dealing with a bunch of shear down there
Quoting 327. aquak9:

Flagler County


Confirmed death in Putnam County due to a tree falling on a home.
If Matthew traveled up the west coast just 20 miles offshore it would have been really really ugly. Those hurricane winds extend way out to the east while there have been very few reports of hurricane gusts. Looks like Daytona north caught the worst. I fear the storm surge for GA and SC.
Quoting 328. aquak9:

A1A along Flagler County




638. Klux
For the first to visibly threaten at a distance warning in 10 years, the hype did not appear all THAT overblasted, imo

Haiti sounded like complete devastation, but photos and reporting appeared very localized.

Thats one of the better predictors, imo
Ugg! I'm in Summerville SC.....wind is starting to pick up. How far out are the hurricane force winds from center? I'm seeing different reports on local news.
Quoting 589. Tcwx2:

Hurricane Matthews impacts stretch out a good ways. Here in South Alabama, winds have just knocked out our power. The strong wind is mainly due to a tight pressure gradient, creating 15-25mph easternly winds in my area.

Really?
A crazy thought, but suppose it goes through the FL straits, continues WSW towards the northern Yucatan coast, develops again into a hurricane, then into the BOC where high pressure pushes it south through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and exits into the EPac. Once there, it has plenty of wide open room for a new lease on life, assuming it continues mostly westward, lol. Could you imagine such a thing, omg!!
Quoting 630. truecajun:

So once old Matthew loops, if it hits Yucatán pen it will most likely die there, right? Dare I ask --it's not going to try to make its way to US GOM coastlines, right?
They say waiting is the hardest part...

THEY were right. Good grief, the tension is palpable.
Quoting 617. kmanislander:



There or near the Caymans according to the CMC and GFS. If that happens we will all need medication.
could be out their till Halloween who knows maybe it will go into a forever loop Bahamas florida mid atlantic some type of weird prehistoric setup or something
Still haven't seen anyone doing live shots from Charleston yet.

By the time they do, I won't see it anyway, since I'm sure power will be well-fubared by then.
Quoting 638. Klux:

For the first to visibly threaten at a distance warning in 10 years, the hype did not appear all THAT overblasted, imo

Haiti sounded like complete devastation, but photos and reporting appeared very localized.

Thats one of the better predictors, imo

It only hit one edge... 842+ are dead...i would say that is catastrophic...
Quoting 639. egoodman:

Ugg! I'm in Summerville SC.....wind is starting to pick up. How far out are the hurricane force winds from center? I'm seeing different reports on local news.


from NHC

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
Quoting 639. egoodman:

Ugg! I'm in Summerville SC.....wind is starting to pick up. How far out are the hurricane force winds from center? I'm seeing different reports on local news.


If you are on the left side of the storm you most likely won't get hurricane force winds. Daytona Beach was less than 20 miles from the eye and had a few hurricane force gusts and sustained winds of 50-60mph.
Kori wants you guys to know that he and Isaac (wxchaser97) had a great vacation and are probably leaving Melbourne tomorrow. He says that they had to shelter at the height of the storm when the Super 8 lost some shingles. I asked if he got hit by any coconuts, and he said no (darn).

Isaac sent me a text late last night saying winds were gusting well over hurricane force, don't know if he had any measurements on that.
Quoting 617. kmanislander:



There or near the Caymans according to the CMC and GFS. If that happens we will all need medication.


Oh boy, can't wait for the Kid:)
Bottom line here is that Matthew is scared of land! He has shot the gap between islands with minimum of transit over land from way down in the Caribbean until now. He may never make a major landfall. But sure has caused a lot of death and destruction while at "sea."
Quoting 644. nash36:

Still haven't seen anyone doing live shots from Charleston yet.

By the time they do, I won't see it anyway, since I'm sure power will be well-fubared by then.


Is local news covering it?
Quoting 456. tiggeriffic:



Where in charleston
West Ashley, highway 61 area
Kori and I survived the onslaught of Matthew overnight in Melbourne. Wind gusts got up to 90-100mph at their peak, but thanks to the inner core processes with the concentric eyewall causing a lot of wobbles, the inner eyewall stayed offshore and we did not reach the 140mph+ winds. I measured a minimum pressure around 981.5mb. Our hotel sustained damage, with part of the roof peeling off, HVAC equipment damaged, and a couple 2nd story windows broken. There are a lot of trees knocked down and limbs snapped off. Other structures have varying degrees of roof damage. There's some signs blown down and a lot of fences blown down. Flooding wasn't too bad in our location but heard it was pretty bad farther north. Damage could've been much worse if the center tracked a little closer, and if it wasn't for a few wobbles it would've. This was my first hurricane ever. Have a lot of pictures and video to go through.
Quoting 618. StormJunkie:

Well so much for much of a "low" tide at Ft. Pulaski in Sav Ga. Storm arrival near high tide tonight.

If YOU are on a barrier island or tidal water in Ga or Sc, LEAVE IF YOU CAN! WATER KILLS! Nc, it looks like similar surges may be headed your way. Plan to leave EARLY as water is rising days in advance of Mathew!




I've been onboard with you about this all day... People please understand this surge is going to be bad. Even if we convince one person to leave it might be worth it.
Thomas Dunn, Director Hilton Head EM, says most residents did not leave Hilton Head Island. ALL fire and EMS evacuated the island, so residents are completely on their own. Says they did their best to get residents to leave with them, but they just refused. Got this from an interview with him on TWC.
Just heard johns island is reporting 48mph gusts...dt is 37....it is otw
Quoting 655. CharlestonGal:

Thomas Dunn, Director Hilton Head EM, says most residents did not leave Hilton Head Island. ALL fire and EMS evacuated the island, so residents are completely on their own. Says they did their best to get residents to leave with them, but they just refused. Got this from an interview with him on TWC.


They will be Rooftops I suppose?
Quoting 652. 24lowcountrystorm:

West Ashley, highway 61 area

I am 61 near wappoo rd
TWC is saying Charleston only gets sustained winds in the mid-40s. Is that right?
Quoting 659. tiggeriffic:


I am 61 near wappoo rd


Still think SC is going to get full brunt of the surge... Coastline curvature and direction of storm scares me.
Gov haley on tv...someone asked about the dams in our area... she just said she would allow (forgot name) could do the dam update.... bwahaha...everyone laughed...needed a laugh
Quoting 660. DurhamWeatherLover:

TWC is saying Charleston only gets sustained winds in the mid-40s. Is that right?


No
Quoting 660. DurhamWeatherLover:

TWC is saying Charleston only gets sustained winds in the mid-40s. Is that right?
maybe higher in rain bands that will be falling wringing out over the state as the spin down continues tremendous rains will be the biggest issue now and coastal inundation where winds blow on shore piling up water
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Charleston forecast -
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=32.7 766&lon=-79.9309#.V_getoWcFpg
I don't want to stir the pot with all the it was over hyped people, but it was really crummy here in Louisiana early August when NO ONE had a clue that places that had never flooded before were going to flood. The interstates, I10 and I12, were under water, and no one was told to evacuate. The forecasters didn't predict the 1000 year flood that took place here. I'm sure if they knew what happened was even a possibility, they would have ordered evacuations. They win some they lose some. but in the case of Matthew, they did their best with the possibility of landfall and got everyone out of the way. Just a tiny wobble west and all those evacuations would have proven absolutely necessary. And it's Looking like the more northern Evacuation orders are going to prove to be necessary.

Just saying that it's better to have been warned than to not have been warned at all. All those here who lost EVERYTHING can attest to that.
Menacingly mean Hurricane Matthew is sadly definitely unprecedented in so many deadly ways... however, regarding the current intensity forecast for this hurricane -I really doubt that it will apply in this case. These latter systems -namely Matthew and Nicole unfortunately seem to have the capacity and sustained capability to be uninhibited by wind shear and the likes... It would not be a surprise to me to see a well defined and distinct eye feature re-appear with a strengthening Hurricane Matthew as a strong possibility albeit briefly... Truly a non-conventional & severe Hurricane system.
Mighty Hurricane Matthew epitomizes and undoubtedly terribly impresses as one of the most vigorous, resilient, and active tropical systems throughout all the existing tropical cyclonic basins. May its impacts and devastation be short-lived.

Intense prayers for those nearest the coast in the Georgia/ Carolina region.

Stay safe everyone, & God Bless!
1.5 hrs before low tide at Ft Pulaski. Water level = 7.5 ft. That is higher than the predicted high tide. THERE IS NOTHING GOOD THAT COMES FROM ANYONE STAYING IN TIDAL ZONES.

This is your LAST chance to leave coastal areas in Ga, and Sc. For some it may be too late as they may be cutoff from the mainland.
Quoting 661. cheezemm:



Still think SC is going to get full brunt of the surge... Coastline curvature and direction of storm scares me.


I agree. I think downtown Charleston is in real trouble. I work at a hospital there and downtown floods routinely. All it takes is a thunderstorm and heavy rain during high tide and most of downtown floods. 12 inches of rain, high tide, and a 6 foot storm surge is simply a disaster for downtown. We evacuated our patients on Wednesday morning and hospital staff at noon and none of us is expected back to work until Tuesday morning. I also think anyone who didn't leave Folly, Isle of Palms, Edisto, Seabrook and the rest of the islands is in big trouble as well. I'm 25 miles inland and feel reasonably safe - but Charleston itself? I would not have stayed there for love or money.
Quoting 659. tiggeriffic:


I am 61 near wappoo rd
I hope you didn't stay
Quoting 660. DurhamWeatherLover:

TWC is saying Charleston only gets sustained winds in the mid-40s. Is that right?


From following this storm I don't believe wind is going to be your biggest problem.
Quoting 672. AreadersinceWilma:



From following this storm I don't believe wind is going to be your biggest problem.


I'm thinking the sustained winds will be much higher than that.
674. Klux
Quoting 645. tiggeriffic:


It only hit one edge... 842+ are dead...i would say that is catastrophic...


That's correct it sounds like.
The emergency manager down at Hilton Head, SC, just said on The Weather Channel that he didn't think a lot of people evacuated.

I guess when you live in a multi story, multi-million dollar house, you don't need to worry as much, and 20 million in sand is a commodity they can afford to lose.

Matthew is now collectively removing 1000 times the sand that they replenished on Hilton Head's beaches, exactly as I forecast repeatedly early this year. http://forums.armageddononline.org/threads/42963-S C-Governor-Nikki-Haley-s-Beach-Renourishment-Proje ct-in-Attempt-to-Undo-1-000-Year-Flood-Event

After all, what's 20 million for people to walk on the beach, when your state's roads are crumbling to dust, risking citizen's lives in South Carolina every day.

Here's my forecast, of what will soon be known in history, as the greatest mover of sand in all of weather history. https://youtu.be/TyFFMdcGnig

The title of my intuitive forecast was: "South Carolina Beach Renourishment Warning"
The name of the song is "September," by the band St. Lucia, which is where Matthew began his march to South Carolina.

Matt Lowery on TWC said about a week ago that anyone who claimed he could forecast where a storm was going beyond five days, is a liar.

I don't know Mr. Lowery, St. Lucia to Hilton head, beginning in September, expressly on a mission to remove the sand that they replenished this season, by a rare storm that parallels the beach this way, is hardly a "lie." It is happening as I type this.


Quoting 672. AreadersinceWilma:



From following this storm I don't believe wind is going to be your biggest problem.

Our local met jut said we would have 75 to 100 by morning
Quoting 655. CharlestonGal:

Thomas Dunn, Director Hilton Head EM, says most residents did not leave Hilton Head Island. ALL fire and EMS evacuated the island, so residents are completely on their own. Says they did their best to get residents to leave with them, but they just refused. Got this from an interview with him on TWC.


It's a free country. If you want to die from stupidity, you should be allowed to in America. LOL
Looks like it's making the turn to the NE