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With or Without a Landfall, Category 4 Matthew Will Pose an Extreme Threat

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 12:22 AM GMT on October 07, 2016

Hurricane Hunters found on Wednesday afternoon that Hurricane Matthew was hanging on to its formidable strength, despite a less-than-textbook structure on satellite. Matthew’s central pressure was as low as 936 millibars late Wednesday afternoon. Top sustained winds dropped to 130 mph in the 8 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Dry air flowing into the storm from the northwest took a clear bite out of Matthew’s core of showers and thunderstorms (convection) on Wednesday afternoon, leaving the convection mostly concentrated on Matthew’s south side. However, after about 5:00 pm EDT, the convection rapidly filled in on Matthew’s north side, making for a much more symmetric hurricane.


Figure 1. A radar image from WU’s Storm app at 6:20 pm EDT Thursday showed Matthew’s center just southwest of Freeport, The Bahamas. Matthew’s small eye and eyewall were surrounded by a broader eyewall whose west side was located about halfway between Freeport and the Florida coast.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 5:45 pm EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Complicating things: a possible eyewall replacement cycle
Matthew has been an extremely difficult storm to forecast, and was exhibiting extremely complicated and rapid changes in its structure Wednesday afternoon. In the early afternoon, Matthew began forming concentric eyewalls--typically the prelude to an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall collapses and a new larger-diameter outer eyewall takes over. At 3 pm EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found two concentric closed eyewalls--an inner eyewall 12 miles in diameter, and an outer eyewall 75 miles in diameter. Just three hours later, the inner eyewall had shrunk to 8 miles in diameter, and the outer one to 57 miles in diameter. At this time, a portion of the inner eyewall passed over Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island, bringing sustained winds of 75 mph, gusting to 86 mph (and as high as 105 mph at 6:11 pm EDT). Around 7 pm EDT, Miami radar indicated that the inner eyewall had reconnected to the outer eyewall via a spiral band, while the outer eyewall continued to contract. It appeared some dry air may have gotten wrapped into the circulation at this time, which would potentially cause weakening. However, at 7 pm the core of the hurricane was crossing the axis of the very warm Gulf Stream Current, which may give it a boost of energy.


Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures are exceptionally warm, in the upper 80s Fahrenheit, just east of the Florida peninsula, as shown in this map derived from data collected on October 5, 2016, by the European MetOp-B satellite. Image credit: Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab.

If Matthew retains both eyewalls, it has the potential to strengthen before making landfall. It’s also quite possible that Matthew’s inner eyewall will collapse and the outer one will become predominant at some point before Matthew gets very near the Florida coast. If so, that would be good news and bad news. The good side: Matthew’s peak winds would likely decrease, perhaps by 10 to 20 mph. On the other hand, hurricane-force winds would expand to cover a much larger area, encompassing much of the outer eyewall. Furthermore, the large western side of the outer eyewall would give a multi-hour battering to buildings along the coast as the hurricane moved northward, increasing the chances of building failure. It’s not a sure thing that the inner eyewall will collapse before landfall; eyewall replacement cycles sometimes take several days to complete.

The bottom line: Matthew is more likely to weaken than to strengthen because of the potential ERC that is underway. If the inner eyewall completely collapses by Friday morning, landfall as a Category 3 storm instead of a Category 4 storm will be likely.


Figure 4. Official NHC forecast for Matthew as of 5:00 pm EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016.

Matthew’s track
NHC’s Hurricane Warning as of 8 pm extended from Boca Raton, FL, to South Santee River, SC, including Lake Okeechobee and Orlando. As of 8 pm EDT, Matthew was moving toward the northwest, but slightly more northward than westward, at about 13 mph. Given that Matthew was then located about 75 miles east of Palm Beach, we can be confident that Matthew will not make landfall south of Palm Beach. (A reminder: NHC defines landfall as the center of a tropical cyclone reaching the coast. A hurricane’s eyewall can move along the coast without it being considered landfall of the storm itself.)

Matthew’s path should undergo a very gradual rightward arc as it approaches the angled Florida coast, which makes it very difficult to say exactly where landfall might occur. The more important question may be where Matthew’s strongest winds come ashore. Especially if Matthew undergoes an ERC, parts of its eyewall could affect the entire coastline from around Palm Beach north to the Georgia coast for extended periods, although these winds may only be around Category 1 strength. A broader field of sustained winds above tropical-storm strength (39 mph) can be expected well inland, including Lake Okeechobee and the Orlando area. As we discussed in our our post on Wednesday morning, the most likely point for landfall--if landfall occurs--is Cape Canaveral, which juts about 10-15 miles into the Atlantic.

Extreme storm surge possible in northern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
Even a broader, weaker Matthew would retain its ability to produce severe storm surge north of its path, especially along Florida’s First Coast (including St. Augustine and Jacksonville) and the coast of Georgia. As of late Thursday afternoon, the entire coast from near Boca Raton, FL, to Cat Island, SC, was under a storm surge warning under a prototype NHC system expected to become operational next year. As Matthew churns northward, the northeast winds ahead of it will pile water against the coastline, leading to what could be record or near-record storm surges in some areas.


Figure 5. Potential maximum inundation (amount of water above ground) that could result from Hurricane Matthew through 5 pm EDT Sunday, October 9, 2016. Displayed flooding values indicate the water height that has about a 1-in-10 (10%) chance of being exceeded. This prototype graphic was issued by NHC at 11 am EDT Thursday, October 6. Please consult local advisories for official information about the expected storm-surge threat in particular areas. Image credit: NOAA/NHC


At 7 pm EDT Thursday, persistent onshore winds associated with Matthew’s circulation were already pushing a storm surge of 2.7 feet to the Florida/Georgia border at Fernandina Beach, 1.9 feet to Jacksonville, Florida at Mayport Bar, 1.8 feet to Savannah, Georgia near Fort Pulaski and 1.8 feet to Cape Canaveral, Florida, as seen on our wundermap with the “Storm Surge” layer turned on, or the NOAA Tides and Currents storm page for Matthew, or storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham’s U-SURGE page for Matthew.

We’ll be back with our next update late Thursday night.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

looking on the FL rader it looks like it has took a jog W if am right things will really start to go down hill for Daytona beach area we could even see a land fall there
Quoting 996. robj144:



I can guarantee it's the DNS.


Right, it's late and maybe i'm not thinking straight, but wouldn't a traceroute stop responding at the provider that cannot locate the server IP?
1003. Michfan
Quoting 961. thetwilightzone:



am not a geek how and where do i go too this


Go to the Control Panel.
Click Network and Internet > Network and Sharing Center > Change adapter settings.
Select the connection for which you want to configure Google Public DNS. For example:

To change the settings for an Ethernet connection, right-click Local Area Connection > Properties.
To change the settings for a wireless connection, right-click Wireless Network Connection > Properties.
If you are prompted for an administrator password or confirmation, type the password or provide confirmation.
Select the Networking tab. Under This connection uses the following items, select Internet Protocol Version 4 (TCP/IPv4) or Internet Protocol Version 6 (TCP/IPv6) and then click Properties.
Click Advanced and select the DNS tab. If there are any DNS server IP addresses listed there, write them down for future reference, and remove them from this window.
Click OK.
Select Use the following DNS server addresses. If there are any IP addresses listed in the Preferred DNS server or Alternate DNS server, write them down for future reference.
Replace those addresses with the IP addresses of the Google DNS servers:

For IPv4: 8.8.8.8 and/or 8.8.4.4.
For IPv6: 2001:4860:4860::8888 and/or 2001:4860:4860::8844.
For IPv6-only: you can use Google Public DNS64 instead of the IPv6 addresses in the previous point.
Restart the connection you selected in step 3.
Tried everything. Still no NHC......
Those deep reads in the north just started to show up in the past 30 minutes. He's going to try and go full doughnut not sure he has enough separation from land to do it, but he is going to try.

1006. IDTH
HWRF continues to show double eyewall in future

1007. scCane
If it keeps on the current path it looks like the center will past just east of Cape Caniveral. They may still get the west side of the outer eyewall though.
TECH SUPPORT MAN, TO THE RESCUE!

If you're using a windows based operating system:

1. Right click your network connection icon down in the lower right corner.
2. Select network sharing and properties.
3. Select change adapter settings.
4. Right click on your ACTIVE connection, for most this will likely be your wireless connection
5. Select properties
6. Click on Internet Protocol Version 4
7. Press the Properties buttons
8. On the bottom half of the screen, change setting from "Obtain DNS server automatically" to "Use the following DNS servers"
9. For "Preferred DNS", set it to 8.8.8.8
10. For "Alternate DNS", set it to 8.8.4.4
11. Click OK

You should be able to access NHC after a few seconds. If not:

1. Go to your start menu search or cortana search (depends on OS)
2. Type cmd and hit enter or click the top result. This will open a command window.
3. Type: ipconfig /flushdns
4. Hit enter

This will flush the old entries from your DNS cache and get new ones.

I'd also post instructions for OSX/*nix systems as well, but if you're using those there's a good chane you already know how to do this. :)
1010. IDTH
Quoting 1005. StormJunkie:

Those deep reads in the north just started to show up in the past 30 minutes. He's going to try and go full doughnut not sure he has enough separation from land to do it, but he is going to try.



HWRF hints that it might.
1003. Michfan


thanks
Matthew is doing himself no favors with that inner eyewall...
Quoting 989. CybrTeddy:

Old eyewall appears to almost have completely merged with the new, outer eyewall. EWRC close to being complete.
Quoting 991. galvestonhurricane:



Kind of? For those wondering about wobbles, it looks like it's moving almost directly NW.


It looks like two eyes, but with a connector....so maybe a spiral between the two? ~ like Doc & Bob mentioned in their last main post.
1014. Michfan


TS Force gusts with that band that just came through. You can see where im at with the + in E. Orlando.
Quoting 1006. IDTH:

HWRF continues to show double eyewall in future



Well it sure looks like its trying to get it back.
Bahh... forget at least some of what I just posted, as once more, after the "nose" seemed to rather instantly disappear, Matthew's northern eyewall wrap-around convection was almost instantaneous, and strong, and with the appearance, as others have just stated, of Matthew's eye being pushed west. So I just give, truly.

Great good luck, again, to anyone who ends up in Matthew's path, wherever it goes, both near-term and long term.

(I think it's "destined" to make "landfall" in Savannah and go right up the coast to almost Wilmington, N.C., but that's just a feeling, unsubstantiated by nearly anything)....

Jo
so cocoa beach is about to disappear
Quoting 1002. aasmith26:



Right, it's late and maybe i'm not thinking straight, but wouldn't a traceroute stop responding at the provider that cannot locate the server IP?
No, no DNS entry so it has no route to trace.

C:\Users\Christopher>tracert http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Unable to resolve target system name http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

C:\Users\Christopher>
Server not found

Firefox can’t find the server at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Check the address for typing errors such as ww.example.com instead of www.example.com
If you are unable to load any pages, check your computer’s network connection.
If your computer or network is protected by a firewall or proxy, make sure that Firefox is permitted to access the Web.
Have to go by radar, but looks to be more north than west. Canaveral still might see the brunt of what its winds have to offer Florida.
1021. IDTH
I don't know how much longer I can stay up. I hope you all have appreciated my efforts because honestly I'm just about SICK of Matthew.
Go to the Control Panel.
Click Network and Internet > Network and Sharing Center > Change adapter settings.
Select the connection for which you want to configure Google Public DNS. For example:

To change the settings for an Ethernet connection, right-click Local Area Connection > Properties.
To change the settings for a wireless connection, right-click Wireless Network Connection > Properties.
If you are prompted for an administrator password or confirmation, type the password or provide confirmation.
Select the Networking tab. Under This connection uses the following items, select Internet Protocol Version 4 (TCP/IPv4) or Internet Protocol Version 6 (TCP/IPv6) and then click Properties.
Click Advanced and select the DNS tab. If there are any DNS server IP addresses listed there, write them down for future reference, and remove them from this window.
Click OK.
Select Use the following DNS server addresses. If there are any IP addresses listed in the Preferred DNS server or Alternate DNS server, write them down for future reference.
Replace those addresses with the IP addresses of the Google DNS servers:

For IPv4: 8.8.8.8 and/or 8.8.4.4.
For IPv6: 2001:4860:4860::8888 and/or 2001:4860:4860::8844.
For IPv6-only: you can use Google Public DNS64 instead of the IPv6 addresses in the previous point.
Restart the connection you selected in step 3.


This worked for me. There may be some issue with the ISP or AT&T
Quoting 963. seataka:



And that area is proundly known as "The Low Country"


Actually, that is not the "low country". Just like North Carolina outer banks isn't "the Carolinas".
1024. centex
Quoting 1013. listenerVT:



It looks like two eyes, but with a connector....so maybe a spiral between the two? ~ like Doc & Bob mentioned in their last main post.
Quoting 1014. Michfan:



TS Force gusts with that band that just came through. You can see where im at with the + in E. Orlando.
How do you decide technical landfall if we can't decide primary eye. Like inner eye finally falling apart as it approaches complete landfall.
wind speed at three elevations in at Sebastian inlet state park fl
base 47 knots
10 meters 50.5 knots
20 meters 56.3 knots
So following the parking garage poster .. not sure i'd want to be around
Any sort of door in upper levels of staircases ..
1026. robj144
Quoting 1024. centex:

How do you decide technical landfall if we can't decide primary eye. Like inner eye finally falling apart as it approaches complete landfall.


The center... has to fully cross the borderline of land
Someone forgot to explain the rules to Mathew...ever since his birth...

Fl peeps, please stay safe. Ga, y'all are up tomorrow, please get away from the coast. To the rest of you watching...Especially the ones that saw my incessant blabbering about Katrina and the NO bowl; Ike and Lyda Ann. Once in a while when I'm not here the next two days....Remind people along the N Fl, Ga, and Sc coasts exactly how deadly this storm is about to be if they are anywhere near the coast or a tidal creek. Keep the misinformation to a minimal.

Night all. Wish I could stay to see what happens with the EWRC...But sadly, this one's not meant for me to watch.
Radar shows eye wall becoming elongated.
Reporting from Palm Bay Florida in Southern Brevard County: I'm experiencing near constant tropical storm force winds and wind gusts that look to be very easily at or near hurricane force. Power has been off and on, but wouldn't be surprised if it went out for good, soon. I went outside briefly and could see transformers exploding in the distance.
All this postulating, and looking back at my screencaps, the radar presentation hasn't fundamentally changed in two hours. I feel like I'm waiting for toast to pop.

Time for bed I think....
1032. Michfan
Quoting 1024. centex:

How do you decide technical landfall if we can't decide primary eye. Like inner eye finally falling apart as it approaches complete landfall.


Complete center of eye has to cross land. That is landfall by the NHC standards.
Quoting 1021. IDTH:

I don't know how much longer I can stay up. I hope you all have appreciated my efforts because honestly I'm just about SICK of Matthew.

Any of you who have strongish educational, experiential, or emotional feelings about these storms add to the mix for all of us, IDTH, and those of us honest enough here always appreciate them, irrespective of almost anything else.

Jo
Quoting 1028. StormJunkie:

Someone forgot to explain the rules to Mathew...ever since his birth...

Fl peeps, please stay safe. Ga, y'all are up tomorrow, please get away from the coast. To the rest of you watching...Especially the ones that saw my incessant blabbering about Katrina and the NO bowl; Ike and Lyda Ann. Once in a while when I'm not here the next two days....Remind people along the N Fl, Ga, and Sc coasts exactly how deadly this storm is about to be if they are anywhere near the coast or a tidal creek. Keep the misinformation to a minimal.

Night all. Wish I could stay to see what happens with the EWRC...But sadly, this one's not meant for me to watch.



Take care. This is a rough one. My heart goes out to you.
1035. IDTH
Updating my friends and this quote from my friend could illustrate just how bad hurricane complacency could be becoming in Wilmington.

"It's just that most Hurricanes are usually kind of a joke in Wilmington, but this one looks serious."

That's what happens when all the Hurricanes that have threatened the area lately don't have their center's pass close to the area. It's something that's unfortunately a double edged sword, when you get so lucky, you get complacent when you're uninformed.
Quoting 1030. Hurricane4Caster:

Reporting from Palm Bay Florida in Southern Brevard County: I'm experiencing near constant tropical storm force winds and wind gusts that look to be very easily at or near hurricane force. Power has been off and on, but wouldn't be surprised if it went out for good, soon. I went outside briefly and could seen transformers exploding in the distance.


Stay safe. Inner room, no windows. All good luck and blessings!
1037. centex
Quoting 1032. Michfan:



Complete center of eye has to cross land. That is landfall by the NHC standards.
That is what I meant by technical. Which eye, the 12 mile one or 40 mile one.
Quoting 1018. MiamiNative:

No, no DNS entry so it has no route to trace.

C:\Users\Christopher>tracert http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Unable to resolve target system name http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

C:\Users\Christopher>



C:\Users\Andy>tracert nhc.noaa.gov

Tracing route to nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.101.139]
over a maximum of 30 hops:

1 1 ms 1 ms <1 ms 192.168.0.98
2 9 ms 8 ms 8 ms 10.1.28.1
3 9 ms 8 ms 8 ms 100.127.40.202
4 13 ms 13 ms 12 ms 172.22.51.112
5 17 ms 17 ms 19 ms ashbbprj02-ae2.0.rd.as.cox.net [68.1.4.139]
6 20 ms 18 ms 18 ms 68.105.31.223
7 17 ms 18 ms 19 ms et-11-3-0-1278.clpk-core.maxgigapop.net [206.196.177.8]
8 22 ms 21 ms 22 ms noaa-cps.demarc.maxgigapop.net [206.196.177.165]
9 20 ms 18 ms 18 ms 140.90.111.36
10 19 ms 20 ms 20 ms 140.90.76.69
11 * * * Request timed out



That's as far as I got, but apparently there is no issue w DNS where I am.
1039. BayFog
Not about to monkey with my settings just to get some satellite images. Hope they restore normal service by tomorrow.
I'm 30 miles west of Jacksonville. Was going to leave but my wife's health would not allow it. Rain of and on but not to bad here. Wind has defiantly picked up. Hope this this mobile home holds up. Please pray.
Quoting 1037. centex:

That is what I meant by technical. Which eye, the 12 mile one or 40 mile one.


When you think about it, the CENTER is the center of both.
1042. robj144
Quoting 1037. centex:

That is what I meant by technical. Which eye, the 12 mile one or 40 mile one.


The center of circulation.
Quoting 1023. JackRackham:



Actually, that is not the "low country". Just like North Carolina outer banks isn't "the Carolinas".


Lowcountry is Beaufort, Edisto, Hardeeville, etc. Extreme southeastern SC.
1038. aasmith26:


Also, do not use http:// in your traceroute. It will not work, you can only use the DNS name only. (nhc.noaa.gov)
1045. Michfan
Quoting 1037. centex:

That is what I meant by technical. Which eye, the 12 mile one or 40 mile one.


I would guess the inner eye wall.
Quoting 1040. Jacksparrows:

I'm 30 miles west of Jacksonville. Was going to leave but my wife's health would not allow it. Rain of and on but not to bad here. Wind has defiantly picked up. Hope this this mobile home holds up. Please pray.


I take it she cannot be moved to another dwelling? Stay in an inner room, with no windows if you have that. Requested prayers ensuing.
Quick FYI, Matthew's eye just crossed over the threshold into 20 kts of wind shear. Clearly not disrupting it on radar at all, but could be one of the big reasons why the left front quadrant of Matthew has been consistently disrupted on the satellite view for most of the night.

Quoting 1039. BayFog:

Not about to monkey with my settings just to get some satellite images. Hope they restore normal service by tomorrow.


There are other imagery sites here.
Looks like our inner eye wall has come back to full circle. He's a fighter for sure.
1051. Dakster
Having trouble getting to this site... Anyhow, let's see if this goes through. Matthew could be the second biggest setback for Elon Musks SpaceX program, if the Cape gets damaged.
1003. Michfan:>


I can access it from the UK. Have been able to with the recon as well when was reported peeps couldn't see it. So, maybe more from servers there struggling?

Aside from that...

I only was seeing Gro's images when he was quoted.

Hope my fellow blog followers have no horrible experiences (or anyone else over there of course, beyond what has already happened :( )

Thank goodness so many only come to the blog when they're threatened. It used to be that it was crazy busy then...but now, seems there are SO many who are really rather nasty too, not been pretty this week. Though, nice to see many old names I've not seen for ages.
Everyone take care, been a crazy season really. Back to lurking.


Edit: whoa! They really must have been trying to get the servers here sorted...as saw my post immediately after hitting submit! :0
Well looks like moving back north. Unless a major shift looks like no FL landfall. Bedtime.
Quoting 1039. BayFog:

Not about to monkey with my settings just to get some satellite images. Hope they restore normal service by tomorrow.


I gave a perfectly sound work around. You are taking expert advice not 'monkey around' with your settings.

Quoting 774. Guinness2013:



you should all to this anyway
network and share settings by right clicking on the internet connectivity icon
>adapter settings>right click your adapter>properties>
click on Internet protocol version 4 and select properties
>click use dns server address
>enter 8.8.8.8 in the first box and 8.8.4.4 in the second.

Now your IP wont be able to track your dns searches.... google will.
Quoting 816. courageTX:



thank you .. have no idea what you did but it works
1055. centex
Quoting 1050. SouthMississippi:

Looks like our inner eye wall has come back to full circle. He's a fighter for sure.
Welcome to the blog. It's still coming and going.
Rather the reposting the directions to adjust from DNS, could folks maybe simply refer to the post #, and cut that portion out of their reply? It's just a lot of extra verbiage on the site. Many thanks!

Quoting 1038. aasmith26:




C:\Users\Andy>tracert nhc.noaa.gov

Tracing route to nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.101.139]
over a maximum of 30 hops:

1 1 ms 1 ms <1 ms 192.168.0.98
2 9 ms 8 ms 8 ms 10.1.28.1
3 9 ms 8 ms 8 ms 100.127.40.202
4 13 ms 13 ms 12 ms 172.22.51.112
5 17 ms 17 ms 19 ms ashbbprj02-ae2.0.rd.as.cox.net [68.1.4.139]
6 20 ms 18 ms 18 ms 68.105.31.223
7 17 ms 18 ms 19 ms et-11-3-0-1278.clpk-core.maxgigapop.net [206.196.177.8]
8 22 ms 21 ms 22 ms noaa-cps.demarc.maxgigapop.net [206.196.177.165]
9 20 ms 18 ms 18 ms 140.90.111.36
10 19 ms 20 ms 20 ms 140.90.76.69
11 * * * Request timed out



That's as far as I got, but apparently there is no issue w DNS where I am.


The non web based domain resolves. The web based names were the ones with an issue. So:

ping nhc.noaa.gov

Works fine. But:

ping www.nhc.noaa.gov

Won't work (if you're having a DNS issue that is). By changing your default DNS to google or openDNS the web address will resolve.
Quoting 1024. centex:

How do you decide technical landfall if we can't decide primary eye. Like inner eye finally falling apart as it approaches complete landfall.


The coordinates of the center point must cross the coastline.

1060. IDTH
Never mind I mis heard him.
Quoting 1053. HoleintheSky:

Well looks like moving back north. Unless a major shift looks like no FL landfall. Bedtime.


Not quite sure what you're looking at. Radar looks like a WNW wobble in the last frame, if anything.
1062. BayFog
Given the slight elongation of the eye in radar imagery, and the marked raggedness landward, I suspect wind shear may already be affecting Matthew. Too bad we can't see the satellite imagery. Maybe somebody who's worked the DNS settings with success might post some of those here.
1064. BayFog
Quoting 1054. Guinness2013:



I gave a perfectly sound work around. You are taking expert advice not 'monkey around' with your settings.

Quoting 774. Guinness2013:



you should all to this anyway
network and share settings by right clicking on the internet connectivity icon
>adapter settings>right click your adapter>properties>
click on Internet protocol version 4 and select properties
>click use dns server address
>enter 8.8.8.8 in the first box and 8.8.4.4 in the second.

Now your IP wont be able to track your dns searches.... google will.


No thank you. Pass.
jim cantore is way too far south lol
1066. Dakster
Quoting 1062. BayFog:

Given the slight elongation of the eye in radar imagery, and the marked raggedness landward, I suspect wind shear may already be affecting Matthew. Too bad we can't see the satellite imagery. Maybe somebody who's worked the DNS settings with success might post some of those here.


I can get the sat imagery, but if you can't even if I post it.... you still won't see it...

Link
umm .. fort pierce now at 21 ft wave height .. that's two stories folks 41114
1068. bappit
"Connectivity issues continue regarding access to NCEP websites, including that of the National Hurricane Center. The National Weather Service is troubleshooting the issue, but at this time there is no estimate for when the problem will be resolved. Please follow @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter for product updates on Hurricane Matthew."
1071. Dakster
Quoting 1065. Runlikeanantelope:

jim cantore is way too far south lol


Must be losing his touch.
Issued 7 Oct 2016 05:31 UTC
Connectivity issues continue regarding access to NCEP websites, including that of the National Hurricane Center. The National Weather Service is troubleshooting the issue, but at this time there is no estimate for when the problem will be resolved. Please follow @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter for product updates on Hurricane Matthew.

Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Kinda weird.
By the way I'm using my iPhone SE.
1073. Michfan
Quoting 1061. HurricaneCamille:



Not quite sure what you're looking at. Radar looks like a WNW wobble in the last frame, if anything.


Yup it is going to be EXTREMELY close. A distance of even 20 miles is the difference between 90 mph winds and 110+.
Steering update:

Where Matthew ultimately goes, and whether/where it makes landfall is largely going to be dependent on how strong it is.

Here's the current steering winds.

First image is <940 mb (which is Matthew's current strength until NHC / Hurricane Hunter data says otherwise.) Second image is 940 mb - 949 mb. Third image is 950 mb - 969 mb

Based on these steering winds, if Matthew remains a stronger Cat-4 storm, the steering winds make it more likely that it will stay offshore, or only have a potential to make landfall in North/South Carolina. If it were to weaken, that makes it much more likely that Matthew will hit the coast of Florida or Georgia.

CURRENT STEERING (<940 MB:)


940-949 MB STEERING:


950-969 MB STEERING:


Stay safe, everyone.
Quoting 1057. Xyrus2000:



The non web based domain resolves. The web based names were the ones with an issue. So:

ping nhc.noaa.gov

Works fine. But:

ping www.nhc.noaa.gov

Won't work (if you're having a DNS issue that is). By changing your default DNS to google or openDNS the web address will resolve.


the ping doesn't work regardless of which DNS name you use. (at least on my side), and they both resolve to different IPs (a load balancer?) When accessing the site via browser, the nhc.noaa.gov (www in dns doesn't necessarily mean it's a web-based name), there is a redirect to www.nhc.noaa.gov.
This Satellite works i believe...you can set number of frames,,,do quality 100% 1400 x 1000 image size.
Set for "Animation" Link
1077. Acorna
Quoting 1069. Starhopper:




It appears that he is smiling in this one.
Can't keep eyes open any longer. Be safe Floridians. Georgians please evacuate. After all, this entryvfrommdr masrees was titled :

With or Without a Landfall, Category 4 Matthew Will Pose an Extreme Threat
Quoting 1073. Michfan:



Yup it is going to be EXTREMELY close. A distance of even 20 miles is the difference between 90 mph winds and 110+.
Or less even. :) 5 miles.
Quoting 1071. Dakster:



Must be losing his touch.
I thought he was still on Marco :)
I really am off to bed...But had to check sat one more time and noticed this.

See the "point" of dry air in the Gulf, almost due W of Naples? If you watch the loop from the past several hours, he's been drinking dry air I think.





click image for link

NHC info on Hurricane Matt
1083. BayFog
Link
"The National Hurricane Center’s website is currently down due to DNS errors at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov, as of midnight Eastern. At midnight, the National Weather Service posted on Twitter about the connectivity issue, stating that it was due to a technical issue at the WOC, which is being looked at but an estimated fix time isn’t known. However, you can still see the 11 p.m. Eastern advisory for Hurricane Matthew, along with other advisories, even while the NHC’s site is down. The NHC is still posting updates on Twitter here. If you would like to still try to access the website by going around the DNS issues, some storm watchers have reported success following Google’s Public DNS advice at this link."
Quoting 1037. centex:

That is what I meant by technical. Which eye, the 12 mile one or 40 mile one.


They are cocentric circles, so you are referring to the same point with either one.
1085. guygee
I've heard a couple of transformers blow, the last one with a surge. Cable is knocked out and rebooting the router didn't help, so using my mobile hotspot now. A couple of loud noises like limbs breaking in the backyard and maybe something hitting the roof. On the radar it looks like the heavy weather is now approaching, and expect a close brush with the outer eyewall maybe starting 5 AM - 6 AM. It has really only just begun.
The whole structure of Matthew seems to be collapsing from something that just doesn't make sense. The radar images don't show any reds until what's remaining of the eye. The storm surge is still of great concern for areas north but I just don't see any winds sustained higher than tropical storm force, unless the center moves due west. I could be wrong but whatever happened to Matthew I'm sure will be talked about in great detail, or we may never know.
1087. Dakster
Quoting 1080. Starhopper:

I thought he was still on Marco :)


Last I heard New Smyrna Beach...

(btw, funny)
1088. NCSCguy
Quoting 1028. StormJunkie:

Someone forgot to explain the rules to Mathew...ever since his birth...

Fl peeps, please stay safe. Ga, y'all are up tomorrow, please get away from the coast. To the rest of you watching...Especially the ones that saw my incessant blabbering about Katrina and the NO bowl; Ike and Lyda Ann. Once in a while when I'm not here the next two days....Remind people along the N Fl, Ga, and Sc coasts exactly how deadly this storm is about to be if they are anywhere near the coast or a tidal creek. Keep the misinformation to a minimal.

Night all. Wish I could stay to see what happens with the EWRC...But sadly, this one's not meant for me to watch.

Are you heading out tonight?
1089. BayFog
Quoting 1081. StormJunkie:

I really am off to bed...But had to check sat one more time and noticed this.

See the "point" of dry air in the Gulf, almost due W of Naples? If you watch the loop from the past several hours, he's been drinking dry air I think.





And that slot of dry air separates the notorious "blob" companion from Matthew.
The Hurricane Hunters are in the air.
cape Canaveral at 16.9 wave height and building .. 41009
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1093. evsnds
Euro is starting. We can't really use the Euro anymore to pinpoint any landfall in the south to central Florida area, right now we're looking where it will put it north of Jacksonville, and how flat the trough is going to be.
Reports from the bad zone? Hurricane force on shore?
Western eye wall continues to organize just offshore of FL. Wide swath of 80 knot winds at flight level. 10-20 miles off shore...just a guess.

Quoting 1085. guygee:

I've heard a couple of transformers blow, the last one with a surge. Cable is knocked out and rebooting the router didn't help, so using my mobile hotspot now. A couple of load noises like limbs breaking in the backyard and maybe something hitting the roof. On the radar it looks like the heavy weather is now approaching, and expect a close brush with the outer eyewall maybe starting 5 AM - 6 AM. It has really only just begun.


Where are you?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 5:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 5:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°31'N 79°36'W (27.5167N 79.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 63 statute miles (101 km) to the NNE (27°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,577m (8,455ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 209° at 90kts (From the SSW at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east, E
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the E (99°) from the flight level center at 2:35:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NW (310°) from the flight level center at 5:15:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 7kts (From the ENE at 8mph)
1098. BayFog
Quoting 1066. Dakster:



I can get the sat imagery, but if you can't even if I post it.... you still won't see it...

Link


Ah, but I did see it. Thanks.
Quoting 1088. NCSCguy:


Are you heading out tonight?


No, that's not what I do. lol. I'm heading to bed because I will be more sleepless tomorrow from about 2 am until who knows when. I did Hugo, and I can't tell how glad I am that it looks like much of this one will be in daylight for us.
1100. IDTH
1101. Michfan
Quoting 1095. ILwthrfan:

Western eye wall continues to organize just offshore of FL. Wide swath of 80 knot winds at flight level. 10-20 miles off shore...just a guess.




If it keeps that heading it will slam into Cape Canaveral. Recon is going to be VERY important the next few hours.
1102. evsnds
For people having trouble accessing the NHC site as I did, change your IPv4 DNS servers to 8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4. To do this, you need to go to your adapter settings under your network control panel, highlight IPv4, and hit properties. Should be the second box down.

This process should be the same between Windows 7 through 10, with slight variations on 7.
1103. IDTH
New blog, Dr masters is on it.
near shore at cape 9.3 and rising
1105. robj144
Quoting 1083. BayFog:

Link
"The National Hurricane Center’s website is currently down due to DNS errors at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov, as of midnight Eastern. At midnight, the National Weather Service posted on Twitter about the connectivity issue, stating that it was due to a technical issue at the WOC, which is being looked at but an estimated fix time isn’t known. However, you can still see the 11 p.m. Eastern advisory for Hurricane Matthew, along with other advisories, even while the NHC’s site is down. The NHC is still posting updates on Twitter here. If you would like to still try to access the website by going around the DNS issues, some storm watchers have reported success following Google’s Public DNS advice at this link."


I wonder if they following this blog.
sooo..i'm new and drunk here...but winds and rains for the usa at least will prove to be a minor event...(godbless haiti, cuba, bermuda)...storm surge however is where its at...so track high tides...i originally choose georgia as the largest damage potential..might have to move that out to south and even north car. dependng on tides
1107. IDTH
Euro, 24 hours, Georgia is in sight

I retract my earlier statement about wind speed.
spgf1 wind gust 77 knots
wind speed 68 knots
THANKS!!!!!

Quoting 1054. Guinness2013:



I gave a perfectly sound work around. You are taking expert advice not 'monkey around' with your settings.

Quoting 774. Guinness2013:



you should all to this anyway
network and share settings by right clicking on the internet connectivity icon
>adapter settings>right click your adapter>properties>
click on Internet protocol version 4 and select properties
>click use dns server address
>enter 8.8.8.8 in the first box and 8.8.4.4 in the second.

Now your IP wont be able to track your dns searches.... google will.

1111. evsnds
New blog.
rest in peace spgf1? "this report is more than two hours old"
1113. BayFog
Lowest pressure report now coming from Fort Pierce north of Stuart: 984 mb, wind NW 29, gust to 49, heavy rain, fog and mist.
1114. guygee
The eye of Matthew should pass very close to Buoy 41009 in about 4 hours.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =41009


1115. guygee
Quoting 1096. listenerVT:



Where are you?
space coast, south of PAFB.
soooo....shit......don't pay attention to me...cause i'm drunk...but based on my limited abilities..and unless the track deviates drastically...this will prove to be a non event for the us...tides included..from georgia north...not certain about florida tides...haven't done that data yet
10 minutes to my eyes here, and *no* posts? Blog failure again... like the NHC, the satellites, the HH's, etc..?

Thinking of an REM song here... can't help it, as it seems quite right for the "occasion". :(

Jo

(Edit: Guess just no posters... wow....)

(Edit Plus: Gahh... a new blog at this hour... totally missed that...) :-(
1118. Smitter
Quoting 1001. thetwilightzone:

looking on the FL rader it looks like it has took a jog W if am right things will really start to go down hill for Daytona beach area we could even see a land fall there

Cou,d come ashore due east of Orlando slightly north above Melbourne now with bigger eye
Goodmorning folks, this definitely is the best scenario that could have happened. Howeever, there wil be impacts.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 071055
TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
700 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...7 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL CONTINUES TO BRUSH CAPE
CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a wind gust of 107 mph (170 km/h) occurred on
the tip of Cape Canaveral.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Report of a tornado in Chatham County right now. It just destroyed some trees