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Hurricane Matthew Steadily Intensifying, Likely to be a Category 4 Storm for Florida

By: Jeff Masters 1:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2016

Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Matthew has steadily intensified over the warm waters of The Bahamas, and is poised to become a Category 4 hurricane this afternoon. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft penetrated Matthew’s eye at 8:17 am EDT, and found that the central pressure had fallen to 937 mb (preliminary data, not official yet.) The surface winds measured by their SFMR instrument were unchanged from what the aircraft measured in their earlier pass through the eye at 6:08 am, but the pressure fell 7 mb between those fixes—a significant drop. Matthew’s pressure was 961 mb at 11 pm EDT Wednesday, and the 24 mb pressure fall in nine hours that has occurred since then will likely lead to a further increase in Matthew’s winds, by about 10 - 15 mph, by this afternoon. This would make Matthew a 135 - 140 mph Category 4 storm as it bears down on Florida.

There is hope, though, that the current intensification cycle may be leveling off. Satellite loops at 8 am EDT Thursday morning showed a solid but not spectacular major hurricane, with plenty of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops in the eyewall. However, the eye had gotten less prominent since the early morning hours. There was no obvious cooling of the tops of the eyewall thunderstorm clouds going on, or large-scale expansion of the hurricane’s size. The 8:17 am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that the eyewall was open on its west side, which may halt intensification.


Figure 1. Hurricane Matthew as seen from 248-nm range Miami radar (with clutter turned off) at 8:31 am EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016. Matthew's eye was just east of Andros Island in the Bahamas, and the northern eyewall was beginning to affect Nassau, on New Providence Island.

The Bahamas getting pounded
At 2:19 am EDT Thursday, winds at a personal weather station (PWS) on Staniel Cay, Exumas, located in the strong right eyewall of Matthew, about 30 miles east-northeast of hurricane’s center, peaked at 92 mph, gusting to 101 mph. The pressure bottomed out at 984 mb at that time, and 12.95” of rain fell in the 7-hour period midnight to 7 am EDT.

WU member ExumaMET reported this from the island of Exuma, which Matthew sideswiped on Wednesday evening: Morning all. It was an intense night here. I recorded Sustained winds over 100 and gusts way into category 4 strength with one gust hitting 153mph before something took out my instrument. We're still in tropical storm force and it should be interesting to see what the island looks like as the sun comes up.

The dangerous right front quadrant with Matthew’s highest winds began pounding the most populous island in The Bahamas, New Providence, on Thursday morning around 8 am EDT. Winds at 9 am EDT at the Nassau airport were 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, and the pressure was falling rapidly. Extreme winds are the main danger on New Providence, though a storm surge of up to ten feet is possible. Fortunately, the capital of Nassau is on the more protected north side of the island, which is less vulnerable to storm surge. High tide is at 11:46 am EDT, and the highest storm surge will likely arrive shortly before then. Tidal range between low tide and high tide is about two feet, so the timing of the high tide relative to a possible ten-foot storm surge can contribute up to a 20% increase in the observed storm tide (the height of the water above ground.)

The weaker left-side eyewall of Matthew will be punishing Andros Island late Thursday morning and into Thursday afternoon. Late Thursday afternoon, it will be Grand Bahama Island’s turn to receive a beating.


Figure 2. Enhanced infrared image of Matthew as of 8:37 am EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016.

Intensity forecast: a major hurricane for The Bahamas and Florida, but not a Cat 5
Matthew has favorable conditions for intensification: light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, very warm ocean waters of 29.5 - 30°C (85 - 86°F) and 70 - 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere (as analyzed by the SHIPS model.) Matthew may get an extra bump in intensity when it crosses over the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current Thursday evening, but the total ocean heat content will decline as the hurricane draws very near to the coast of Florida early Friday morning. Interaction with land will occur then, limiting the potential for intensification. Strong upper-level winds out of the southwest will begin bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on Friday, and there is plenty of dry air to the hurricane’s west that these winds will be able to drive into the hurricane’s core. By Saturday, when Matthew is near the coast of South Carolina, wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, and the combination of high wind shear and dry air to the storm’s west should act to significantly weaken Matthew from Saturday through Monday as it parallels the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. We can expect Matthew to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane or tropical storm by Monday of next week.

The bottom line: Matthew is likely to be a major Category 4 hurricane by this afternoon, and will likely be at Category 3 or 4 strength when it affects the east coast of Florida on Friday. Matthew is not likely to become a Category 5 storm.

Florida under siege
The 00Z Thursday runs of our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks—the GFS and European—showed that Matthew will make landfall on the coast of Central Florida early Friday morning. The 06Z Thursday run of the GFS model showed this, as well. In their 5 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in Florida to Ft. Pierce (67%), West Palm Beach (62%), and Cocoa Beach (56%).

How strong Matthew is when it affects Georgia and South Carolina is difficult to predict, as it depends strongly on how much time the hurricane spends over land in Florida. The most likely strength for Matthew at the time of its closest approach to Georgia and South Carolina is as a Category 2 storm, but a Category 1 or 3 storm is also a possibility.

We'll have much more on the threat Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina face in our next post.

Long-range track forecast for Matthew: less danger to North Carolina, no danger to New England
Thursday’s latest 00Z run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that Matthew would turn to the northeast and then east on Saturday, keeping the storm several hundred miles south of the coast of North Carolina. In this scenario, the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina would be at risk of hurricane force winds, but the coast farther north—including North Carolina and New England—would not be. In their 5 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC was giving the coast from Jacksonville, Florida to Charleston, South Carolina 11 - 17% chances of receiving hurricane force winds. Probabilities for the coast of North Carolina were less than 10%. There is still a great danger of flooding rains in southern North Carolina, though, even if the storm passes more than 100 miles to the south. Rivers are high and the soils are saturated from heavy rains during the past two weeks, and the expected 6+ inches of rain Matthew will dump may cause widespread damaging flooding.


Figure 3. Screen shot of NHC’s interactive Storm Surge Probability product from 5 am EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016, showing the probability of inundation in excess of 5’ above ground level from Matthew. The northern Florida coast to the coast of South Carolina is expected to have a greater than 50% chance of getting inundation in excess of five feet. The highest probabilities are along the Georgia coast, where hurricane impacts are fairly infrequent. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs created using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHC's forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size.

Long range forecast for Matthew: thrown for a loop
Our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—continue to show Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back towards The Bahamas by Tuesday next week. However, Matthew will experience high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots Sunday through Tuesday, which would make Matthew a weak tropical storm by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Track forecasts from the four European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Thursday, October 6, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Thursday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Only one of these forecasts shows Matthew entirely missing a landfall along the Southeast U.S. coast, and all of them show Matthew failing to recurve out to sea to the northeast. The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform better than other ensemble members at forecast times of five days and beyond. The grey crosses along the Gulf Coast are the locations of oil wells, as this forecast tool was designed primarily for use by the oil and gas industry. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Links
Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.
Rapid-scan 7-minute time resolution loop of Matthew from NASA/MSFC

We’ll have several more posts today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 969. ScooterXX7:

Are we likely to lose power in Miami-Dade county?


I would read your local NWS statements. They will tell you what you need to know.
Quoting 990. SavannahStorm:



I sense a disturbance in the force. If anyone else on the GA/SC coast is seeing this: GET OUT NOW.


The lack of members on this blog from Jacksonville to far southern S Carolina is telling. Not about path, but about how those areas "view" the potential for one to hit there.
1003. IDTH
Quoting 982. ncstorm:

NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC
Important to emphasize: while the center of Hurricane #Matthew may not directly move over land, the potential for flooding is significant.

NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC
With very heavy rainfall anticipated from #Matthew on Fri/Sat/Sun, a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for most of our forecast area.

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Nicole, the fujiwhara effect had this possibility come to my mind. Imagine it's off shore NC but close to cause some flooding, now what if Nicole causes the storm to loop up into NC? Maybe I'm overthinking this but it popped into my head recently.
1004. ncstorm
Good God..

108 people dead in Haiti per TWC..

A moat around Matthew's intense eye suggests it may be in the very beginning stages of an eyewall replacement cycle. Likely too little, too late to matter in terms of Florida impacts (and no guarantees the process continues throughout the day).

1006. IDTH
TWC, Carl Parker - "108 people reported dead in Haiti"

What a disaster!
1007. kbaker1
Quoting 969. ScooterXX7:

Are we likely to lose power in Miami-Dade county?


If you all are already recording wind gusts of 49 mph from the very first outer bands, then I would say it is possible you all see gusts up to 65-70 mph which could very easily knock out power. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!
1008. NCSCguy
Anyone think the cone will bend back toward sc on the next track update?
Quoting 951. pipelines:



For the political system to work, you have to vote. For your vote to matter, you need to know who you're voting for and how their votes will effect you and others. It's incredibly important to know who is for cutting NOAA funding and who isn't. If you think we need better weather forecasting, modeling, satellites, and recon, you need to vote for the people that support funding it, not the ones that are going to cut it.

That's the last I'm going to say about the topic.




I vote. In fact, I'm a proud member of the "write-in" party. I try my best to figure out what all needs to be funded and not funded. All the while being $20 trillion short on funds. Like I said it's futile.
Quoting 986. cyberian:

I just heard on Sirius/XM that any Sirius or XM radio, even if you don't have an active subscription, will be receiving weather updates and emergency announcements for the duration of Matthew. It will be on channel 185 for a Sirius unit and channel 1 on an XM unit.


Excellent post! Thank-you for sharing.
1011. GatorWX
1000+ flights canceled.

Wonder if Kori made it.

Going to try and see now. I'll let you know.
1012. nash36
Hugging the coast-

So what happened to the last hurricane hunter? It went back to base? Anything inbound?
Quoting 998. hmroe:



Thanks for the pictures! FWIW, high tide was at 12:15

Link


Intracoastal is a little later.
LINK
Unprecedented that regions affected never had such a storm in the past, wondering about building codes... i guess there will be at least significant isolated damage
12z HWRF hints at upcoming Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
If you choose to stay for the hurricane in an East Coastal county... and your neighbors to the East, North or North-west sides of you property evacuated... DON'T BE P.C. .
If they left out lawn furniture, trash cans, their 5-gallon plastic bucket collection, a smoker, etc... that is all debris that may be picked up and blown into YOUR picture window or roof. Since they are already gone, they have no say-so.
Help yourself by gathering up their left-out items and putting them as close as possible to their house or secure them as best you can to their deck. I'm a big fan of tipping things over, or filling the trashcan or large flower pots with water from the hose. That way, they don't cause YOUR house to have a problem due to blowing debris.
When they get back... due to the extensive damage in the area, their big concerns will NOT be that you relocated their trash can.
Don't be P.C., be SAFE.
Quoting 885. MeteorologistTV:

The more northerly track really spared Broward Hurricane winds.


Wow ....I guess I didn't know that the storm had already passed. Guess I will take my shutters down then(sarcasm flag goes up). Maybe we should wait till the center has passed us to make that statement.... ya think???
Quoting 944. NutZilla:



I have no idea! The earlier model runs had a weak Nicole. A stronger system could affect Matthew in at least several important ways, most notably...track.

Maybe we'll see a tighter loop?
Likely a faster turn to the right and to the south, but slower overall forward motion.
Quoting 988. HadesGodWyvern:



it wasn't a few hours ago. It had an eye like signature and winds of almost hurricane force winds.

Dvorak from SSD was 4.0.

Right. Thanks, I never looked at the thing since yesterday - obsessed with the Atlantic pair esp. the man.
Quoting 1004. ncstorm:

Good God..

108 people dead in Haiti per TWC..


1000 souls is the opening bid
1022. ncstorm
Quoting 1003. IDTH:


I'm starting to feel uneasy about Nicole, the fujiwhara effect had this possibility come to my mind. Imagine it's off shore NC but close to cause some flooding, now what if Nicole causes the storm to loop up into NC? Maybe I'm overthinking this but it popped into my head recently.


I'm not sold on it but I saw hints in the last euro run where Matthew looped more west and headed North some then NE after the loop
Quoting 1003. IDTH:


I'm starting to feel uneasy about Nicole, the fujiwhara effect had this possibility come to my mind. Imagine it's off shore NC but close to cause some flooding, now what if Nicole causes the storm to loop up into NC? Maybe I'm overthinking this but it popped into my head recently.


If anything Nicole rotates around Matthew like a moon.
1024. Drakoen
Truly a beautiful storm. Looks like it's heading in the general direction of the Treasure Coast.
1025. nash36
Quoting 1008. NCSCguy:

Anyone think the cone will bend back toward sc on the next track update?


It's possible. The GFS has the core over Charleston.
As you can see the waters are rising in Jacksonville right now. There is a gauge on the St. Johns River.
So far the water has only risen 10 inches above normal high tide in that river. Certainly it will flood low-lying areas at the next high tide (12:15pm was the last high tide).

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gag e=sjlf1&wfo=jax

Bookmark This Link To Water Rise in Jacksonville
Quoting 1008. NCSCguy:

Anyone think the cone will bend back toward sc on the next track update?
Probably not relevant at this point - but I think that if the models' trend continues, the cone bends more offshore altogether - so less likely for a landfall anywhere along its route.
1029. IDTH
Quoting 1016. VegasRain:

12z HWRF hints at upcoming Eyewall Replacement Cycle.


It completes it in that little amount of time?
Quoting 973. boandjoe:

Bending east of forecast points

keep bending!!!


Not true....check any of the floater loops and check the box that says, "fcst.pts". They are spot on and Matt just tracked exactly over the last forecast point.
1031. JM2
Quoting 985. E46Pilot:

Just got done putting up my shutters here in boca Raton FL. I really don't think it was necessary, but everyone else in the neighborhood was, so I didn't want to feel left out, and just in case in that under 10% chance matty decides to jog west....well, I'm prepared. But damn that's a lot of work....wish I had accordion shuters


I hear ya. The way I see it about once every 10 years the shutters have to go up. Takes me about 4 hours... no fun lifting large objects while on a ladder!
Levi's current stats for his latest tropical tidbit:

1402 views - 327 up votes - 0 down votes

That's one helluva positive ratio. Levi is headed for stardom!
1033. NCSCguy
Quoting 1002. StormJunkie:



The lack of members on this blog from Jacksonville to far southern S Carolina is telling. Not about path, but about how those areas "view" the potential for one to hit there.

Even here in Charleston... If I hear "its just some wind and rain" one more time...
...1 PM POSITION UPDATE...

An automated station in the Berry Islands, Bahamas, reported a
sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h), with gusts to 76 mph (120
km/h) during the past hour.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 78.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
1035. BayFog

200 mph jet stream knifing across the Pacific, energized by ex-Typhoon Chaba. Should set things stirring across the CONUS by next week, which may be significant if Matthew loops back, perhaps amped up by Nicole.
A recon plane is on the runway it seems.

Also, Matthew will likely see his eye clear out now that he's moving away from Andros island and over the gulf stream with SSTs of near 30C
1038. hmroe
Quoting 982. ncstorm:

NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC
Important to emphasize: while the center of Hurricane #Matthew may not directly move over land, the potential for flooding is significant.

NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC
With very heavy rainfall anticipated from #Matthew on Fri/Sat/Sun, a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for most of our forecast area.


Our retaining pond is about to overflow already...
Quoting 1000. HadesGodWyvern:

965. cRRKampen



Bransby earlier just south of Madagascar.

Wow. How poof that went.
1040. nash36
Charleston- 955mb

Quoting 840. RitaEvac:






Can you share a link to access this map? Thanks in advance.
Quoting 850. zoomiami:



Yes - strong band -- falls area was out on patio and got sand blasted & then soaked

Same here in South Miami. Back to a steady drizzle now . Looks like outer feeder bands will be the worst we see. just fine by me.


850mb winds. These are the type of wind gusts that may be brought down to the surface in stonger bands. Absolutely catastrophic.

Only one model- but hope for the best, plan for the worst.
1044. IDTH
Quoting 1023. win1gamegiantsplease:



If anything Nicole rotates around Matthew like a moon.


When I was referring to the storm I was referring to Matthew by the way. Nicole being stronger is what makes me uneasy because the fujiwhara effect could happen.

Also has there actually ever been a known fujiwhara effect in the Atlantic before?
Is anybody else leaning a little to the right in their chair while looking at the sat track,
like trying to move the ball in a field goal attempt?
Quoting 1036. RichardBLong:




Looks like a Moat to me.
Quoting 997. mikatnight:






Could you post the link to the wind field figure please? Thank you
Worried that not enough people are heeding evacuation orders. 11 years since a major Hurricane in the US - people got complacent and are putting themselves and emergency responders at risk
Quoting 1021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

1000 souls is the opening bid

I stuck at 300.
Futile, too.
Quoting 1002. StormJunkie:



The lack of members on this blog from Jacksonville to far southern S Carolina is telling. Not about path, but about how those areas "view" the potential for one to hit there.

Stormjunkie, I have been a WU member for years and live in the Windy Hill Section of JAX. Not evacuating; we are (hoping) in a strong building and are hunkered down waiting for h3ll to break loose.
National Weather Service has advised 'loss of life' and 'immense human suffering' is possible

They did the same thing with Ike, and Bolivar got wiped out. They were finding bodies in the swamp on the north side of Galveston Bay for weeks!
My RadarScope app is showing lightning in the north eye wall!
Quoting 1021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

1000 souls is the opening bid

What is 'Not enough' Alex? I'll take the over.
NOTE - This image is NOT surface level winds, but some of those winds will mix down in heavier bands.

HWRF Model forecast 12z Init 45hr forecast point.

1055. nash36
Quoting 1028. lexslamman:

Probably not relevant at this point - but I think that if the models' trend continues, the cone bends more offshore altogether - so less likely for a landfall anywhere along its route.


What models are you looking at? They're not bending east.
Quoting 1054. StormJunkie:

NOTE - This image is NOT surface level winds, but some of those winds will mix down in heavier bands.

HWRF Model forecast 12z Init 45hr forecast point.




Lol, you and I were thinking on the same wavelength.
1057. GatorWX
Spoke to Kori. His plane is boarding now. Thought he was arriving now. I'd imagine there won't be too many more flights after his.
1058. IDTH

1059. hmroe
Quoting 1014. mikatnight:



Intracoastal is a little later.
LINK


Ahh gotcha!
Quoting 1047. jitterboy:



Could you post the link to the wind field figure please? Thank you


BoatUS
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#Ger t
Quoting 993. ElConando:



I live in extreme NE Dade. I'm preparing for Hurricane force wind gusts. If this thing hits Cat 5, it may be possible.


I dunno, can the windfield expand in such a short amount of time even with intensification?
Quoting 1057. GatorWX:

Spoke to Kori. His plane is boarding now. Thought he was arriving now. I'd imagine there won't be too many more flights after his.


Then what? Can you even get a rental car?
Thanks so much for your response. Agreed. Hopefully there will be no cause for further profanity from Dr. Masters. I'll begin to follow Levi as well. Thanks again.

Quoting 970. bwi:



GFS shows the loop into the southern gulf, but it dissipates. Dr. Masters and excellent blogger Levi Cowan have suggested that wind shear will likely be very high if the storm loops around, so perhaps not a big danger. Here's hoping we don't have to hear any more of Dr. Masters virtual profanity if that outlook doesn't unfold.
Matthew is quickly improving his satellite appearance on visible satellite imagery.
Quoting 1040. nash36:

Charleston- 955mb




And here are some of the winds we could expect to mix down in higher gusts IF the HWRF were to verify. It's only one model and it is an intensity model more so than a track model; but it is worth noting. As most of us have said, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Looks like a pretty big west jog in the last few frames
Quoting 1051. NutZilla:

National Weather Service has advised 'loss of life' and 'immense human suffering' is possible

They did the same thing with Ike, and Bolivar got wiped out. They were finding bodies in the swamp on the north side of Galveston Bay for weeks!


I don't want to downplay Matthew, but the Ike/Bolivar comparison looks overstated. Thank goodness. No one should go through that hell.

Edit: To clarify, storm surge for Matthew should be less than Ike because of the parallel track to the coast.
I feel your pain. My mother lives on the west side of the Intracoastal in Delray in a 1st floor condo. She insists she is fine. Prayers please

Quoting 907. Jacksparrows:

So my uncle lives on an intercostal canal in Boynton Beach. Says I watch to much tv and Internet hype. Refuses to prepare at all. WTH.
The body count will likely continue to add up in both Cuba and Haiti.The Bahamas will add to that most likely and then the U.S.Matthew reminds me of the monsters we saw in the mid 2000's.
Definitely looks like a large outer eyewall forming on Matthew. We'll have to see how that modulates intensity today. Very cool how the 12z HWRF was seemingly able to simulate this.
Checking in from Nags Head. Our guard is way down around here. If the models change things could get hairy. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Dealing with these things is such a strange mix of emotions. Here in Dade we are of course very relieved that we won't get the brunt of Matthew. At the same time, there is a feeling of frustration when you scramble around to get supplies, gas the car, get cash, get food, secure your home, secure your business, and get hunkered down, only to have it be a non-event. I know that it is better safe than sorry, but sitting here on zero sleep for 1.5 days its a strange mix of feelings.
NICOLE, AL, L, , , , , 15, 2016, HU,

Link
1076. Plaza23
The South Beach cam is showing some huge wave action right now. Camera is moving too from the gusts

http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/plan-your-trip/see -miami-webcams
Quoting 1055. nash36:



What models are you looking at? They're not bending east.
GFS has trended eastward. So has HWRF. So has GDFL. So has the ECMWF. Most of the models are trending eastward now. I'm looking at the graphical runs, but a quick look at the spaghetti plots shows that the consensus is moving back to the right.
1078. hmroe
Quoting 1002. StormJunkie:



The lack of members on this blog from Jacksonville to far southern S Carolina is telling. Not about path, but about how those areas "view" the potential for one to hit there.


Or perhaps they are reading and just less..outspoken
1079. IDTH
I think we have some bad planes at a horrible time.

Quoting 1062. ScooterXX7:



I dunno, can the windfield expand in such a short amount of time even with intensification?


I am by no means an expert, but it seems like that's pretty much impossible at this point.
Hurricane Matthew is expected to hit southern Florida late this evening and move up the East Coast
Powerful storm claimed at least 112 lives as it ripped through Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Tuesday
The storm intensified to a 'catastrophic' Category Four this morning with sustained winds of 140mph
National Weather Service has advised 'loss of life' and 'immense human suffering' is possible
Approximately seven million people could be left without power and some areas left 'uninhabitable'
Two million people in the US have been urged to evacuate their homes in preparation for a 'direct hit'
Gov. Scott warned Florida warns that the storm 'is going to kill people' after declaring a state emergency
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley said only 175,000 have evacuated so far, warning 'that's not enough'
Eerie satellite images of Matthew over Haiti Tuesday showed that the storm briefly formed a grinning skull

Death, Destruction, and Destitution = MATTHEW
Terrific. Hurricane Matthew should be centered near Jacksonville Beach, Florida between 5:30am and 8:00am on Friday. Low tide for that area is at 6:00am, High tide that area is 12:00 noon at 5.8 ft MSL. Areas 40-60 miles NORTH of Jacksonville beach will likely get the hurricane center at high tide. However, the North and East will be pushing a big wall of water toward Georgia during high tide.
Don't just look at storm surge based on wind predictions, but add high tide to it and it's probably closer to reality.
1083. MAstu
Quoting 1074. AndrewWasNotFun:

Dealing with these things is such a strange mix of emotions. Here in Dade we are of course very relieved that we won't get the brunt of Matthew. At the same time, there is a feeling of frustration when you scramble around to get supplies, gas the car, get cash, get food, secure your home, secure your business, and get hunkered down, only to have it be a non-event. I know that it is better safe than sorry, but sitting here on zero sleep for 1.5 days its a strange mix of feelings.

Thank you for that perspective
Quoting 1062. ScooterXX7:



I dunno, can the windfield expand in such a short amount of time even with intensification?
More likely to happen not due to intensification from the gulf stream, but due to disruption as it interacts with land. Not enough time over the gulf stream to really do much, and the interaction with land may tamp down the impact of the gulf stream somewhat.
Quoting 1080. AndrewWasNotFun:



I am by no means an expert, but it seems like that's pretty much impossible at this point.


Nope, definitely not impossible. But I agree that it's unlikely. That being said, even a slight increase in hurricane winds could have a significant effect on local areas.
Stuck at hour 4 HRRR

Quoting 983. hydrus:



Thays another channel navigated and another piece of land missed by the eye.
Quoting 1079. IDTH:

I think we have some bad planes at a horrible time.




NOAA planes soon
1090. IDTH

Quoting 1077. lexslamman:

GFS has trended eastward. So has HWRF. So has GDFL. So has the ECMWF. Most of the models are trending eastward now. I'm looking at the graphical runs, but a quick look at the spaghetti plots shows that the consensus is moving back to the right.
You're full of ish.The GFS came more west and so has the HWRF.Please stop lying to yourself and others.
I am a fan of the reality TV show "Live Free or Die."

Colbert's Georgia swamp cabin is in the cross-hairs of this storm. I hope the Discovery Channel has evacuated him.
Nicole makes how many hurricanes?
Quoting 1090. IDTH:





Uh, last time I checked my memory, it went down to cat 3.
Quoting 1089. nrtiwlnvragn:



NOAA planes soon


Those budget cuts...
Derp

1098. bwi
My amateur opinion, a key indicator of possible strengthening will be low level inflow from the west, through the Florida Straits. Winds currently northerly at Key West. If that becomes a screaming westerly fetch this afternoon, then the hurricane would be showing added power, possible last minute intensification.

Key West buoy.

1099. tanda35
So posters 907 and 1070, be sure your loved ones that won't heed the warnings to evac, use a Sharpie and write their SS# on there arm, so there bodies can be identified later.
Quoting 1072. MAweatherboy1:

Definitely looks like a large outer eyewall forming on Matthew. We'll have to see how that modulates intensity today. Very cool how the 12z HWRF was seemingly able to simulate this.


I don't think it is, cloud tops aren't warming and eye is still visible.
Quoting 1072. MAweatherboy1:

Definitely looks like a large outer eyewall forming on Matthew. We'll have to see how that modulates intensity today. Very cool how the 12z HWRF was seemingly able to simulate this.


Could be somewhat bad news as it looks like Matthew will continue to intensify and if it undergoes an EWRC along the coast it'll expand its winds and likely have a larger impact. It won't affect the rains or storm surge much if at all - the two biggest impacts.
Quoting 1074. AndrewWasNotFun:

Dealing with these things is such a strange mix of emotions. Here in Dade we are of course very relieved that we won't get the brunt of Matthew. At the same time, there is a feeling of frustration when you scramble around to get supplies, gas the car, get cash, get food, secure your home, secure your business, and get hunkered down, only to have it be a non-event. I know that it is better safe than sorry, but sitting here on zero sleep for 1.5 days its a strange mix of feelings.


Hopefully you'll be happy about it. The opposite would be a nightmare at best.
Where can you find a live view of the HH position reports? Back in 2004 I had one of the NOAA P3s fly over the house for either Frances or Jeanne, don't remember. That's when I knew it was about to hit the fan.
BEFORE you leave your home to evacuate... take photos. Take LOTS of photos.
Pictures of the roof, each side of your house, trees, fences, garden shed, garage, inside the home in each room, particularly expensive items (flat screen TV, antiques, china, appliances, etc...). Digital photos cost nearly nothing but about 5-minutes of your time.
When you talk to an insurance adjuster, having the photos makes a BIG difference. They can see the conditions of the home pre and post storm. Don't skimp on the photos.
Also, photograph your PETS. Get several angles and make sure they are recognizable in face, front view, side view.
1106. HrDelta
Quoting 1093. nrtiwlnvragn:

Nicole makes how many hurricanes?


6. Alex, Earl, Gaston (Major), Hermine, Matthew (Major, Formerly Category 5), and Nicole
Quoting 1101. stormwatcherCI:

Very judgmental and racist comment. Matthew devastated Haiti and it is a very poor country to begin with. Did not mean to plus your comment.


Post is gone, you may want to modify your comment to erase that language.
Quoting 1069. galvestonhurricane:



I don't want to downplay Matthew, but the Ike/Bolivar comparison looks overstated. Thank goodness. No one should go through that hell.


It is absolutely not overstated. Were this to make landfall in N Fl or Ga. The Ga coast could very well see a Bolivar like surge.

Quoting 1099. tanda35:

So posters 907 and 1070, be sure your loved ones that won't heed the warnings to evac, use a Sharpie and write their SS# on there arm, so there bodies can be identified later.


You cannot touch someone like that at a time like this.
That's a task that has to be done by the owner of the decision.
Long range radar loop out of Miami does not bode well for Fl.
1111. IKE
Matthew coming into view on the 124 NMI Miami radar.
1112. IDTH

A recent microwave shot would be nice now, to verify or debunk EWRC claims.
1114. tj175
Quoting 1068. lurkNoMore:



99 from gang fights
4 from attempted robbery
5 from the storm

i mean that is a light month in detroit...



Save your jokes. This is a weather blog not a hate fest save that for a Trump rally
Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 41 minHá 41 minutos
The potential for 9 ft of storm #surge #flooding in NE Florida is off-the-charts extreme. More than 1-in-500 year storm tide event. #Matthew



Thays another channel navigated and another piece of land missed by the eye.


Whoever is lead blocking for mathew is going to the hall of fame
1117. HrDelta
Quoting 1101. stormwatcherCI:

Very judgmental and racist comment. Matthew devastated Haiti and it is a very poor country to begin with. Did not mean to plus your comment.


That comment by lurkNoMore made me incredibly angry. We don't need that sort of crap on Wunderground. At all.
Quoting 1091. washingtonian115:

You're full of ish.The GFS came more west and so has the HWRF.Please stop lying to yourself and others.
Not at all. The 12z GFS is clearly farther to the east than the 6z on the storms approach to the coast and on the timing and severity of it's rightward turn - same with runs of the HWRF. The models are clearly trending eastward on the overall track. Furthermore, most of the models are now predicting that the storm will start heading eastward and then southward earlier on its track than previously indicated.
1120. HCW
As Hurricane Matthew poses a threat to the southern eastern seaboard of the United States, it brings with it the potential for damaging winds, heavy rains and a dangerous storm surge. As a public service, SiriusXM has teamed up with The Weather Channel to provide their live coverage on Sirius Ch. 184 and XM Ch. 1 until the danger passes, on both active and inactive radios, starting October 6 at 12 p.m. ET. Updates on the storm can also be heard on Fox News Headlines 24/7 (Ch. 115).

Starting at 1 p.m. ET, subscribers can hear traffic and weather updates for Washington D.C./Baltimore/Miami/Orlando (Ch. 134) and San Francisco/Seattle/Phoenix/Tampa-St. Pete (Ch. 137).
Quoting 1077. lexslamman:

GFS has trended eastward. So has HWRF. So has GDFL. So has the ECMWF. Most of the models are trending eastward now. I'm looking at the graphical runs, but a quick look at the spaghetti plots shows that the consensus is moving back to the right.
Quoting 1091. washingtonian115:

You're full of ish.The GFS came more west and so has the HWRF.Please stop lying to yourself and others.


He can't help it. He's been like this for days now. Never posting anything to back up his claims.

Ignore him.
1122. robj144
Quoting 1087. PlazaRed:


Thays another channel navigated and another piece of land missed by the eye.


It did destroy the southern part of the eyewall, however. At least it has to spend some time regenerating that.
Quoting 1108. StormJunkie:



It is absolutely not overstated. Were this to make landfall in N Fl or Ga. The Ga coast could very well see a Bolivar like surge.




This is a perfect photo to illustrate the possible catastrophe that is likely to unfold.

Look at that photo...and imagine it stretching from points north of West Palm Beach all the way to Savannah Georgia.
Does anyone have any up to date satellite links? Goes seems to be having issues again.
Quoting 1078. hmroe:



Or perhaps they are reading and just less..outspoken


Yup. I just read. Currently not living in Charleston but trying to help my parents decide whether to evacuate to the hotel rooms they have booked inland. They don't want to and they may be right. They're on high ground, biggest threat is wind damage (trees). I'm just reading and watching to see what transpires.
Quoting 1091. washingtonian115:

You're full of ish.The GFS came more west and so has the HWRF.Please stop lying to yourself and others.


Don't you hate when people say what they wish they see as if it will make it come true?
1127. nash36
Canadian-

1128. wpb
Quoting 1096. TampaShieldV1:



Those budget cuts...
never have seen a season where more planes turned back to base.other p3 out of service for a year getting new wing and engines af c130 have issues all season. gulfstream jet in and out of service
This thing is about to get ove the Gulf Stream, wouldn't be surprised to see more RI tonight.
Quoting 1104. aERonAUtical96:

Where can you find a live view of the HH position reports? Back in 2004 I had one of the NOAA P3s fly over the house for either Frances or Jeanne, don't remember. That's when I knew it was about to hit the fan.


Like when you go on a beach holiday and overnight, the families are replaced by newspeople with Jim Cantore getting the room next to you.
Look at the pressure drop in just 1 hour! The winds are up to 37kt in the 1pm observation from the buoy west of Nassau, Bahamas. With the current seaward Jog, this station will be located right in the midst of the area where a new outer eye is expected to form (HWRF model).



Bookmark this Link for future updates. Station name is spgf1.
1132. IDTH
Quoting 1102. Envoirment:



Could be somewhat bad news as it looks like Matthew will continue to intensify and if it undergoes an EWRC along the coast it'll expand its winds and likely have a larger impact. It won't affect the rains or storm surge much if at all - the two biggest impacts.

Seriously, sometimes you'd be happy to see a storm undergo an EWRC before landfall because it normally doesn't finish and weakens. THAT'S ANY NORMAL STORM, Matthew just refuses to weaken during those periods and actually finds a way to strengthen and expand it's wind field. This is a storm on a mission it seems unfortunately, I hope people get off the coast, I'm doing my best to raise awareness.
Quoting 1095. neonlazer:



Uh, last time I checked my memory, it went down to cat 3.


Not consecutive, that number is total
I always thought that storm surge was a much greater factor when the storm came in perpendicular to the coast as opposed to paralleling the coast. I'm a little surprised at some of the surge estimates. Wondering if they'll come to fruition.
Afternoon All.

Just grilled some burgers and getting ready to hunker down here in Jupiter, FL. Prayers to all in its path, this one is going to be a doozie
1136. BayFog
Satellite imagery is suddenly crapping out, at a very inconvenient time.
Quoting 208. BobinTampa:

The Weather Channel is nothing but dopes on the beach. Such a amazing platform wasted because they do the same thing local news does. Dopes on a beach. Just babbling and killing time.

I learn more from Levi in a 10 minute video or spending 10 minutes on this blog than I do watching TWC for 10 hours.

Absolutely agree! Cantore was on this morning saying "Pressure is dropping; this could be a Category 5!" As if the people in Florida need to be more petrified than they already were.
Quoting 1091. washingtonian115:

You're full of ish.The GFS came more west and so has the HWRF.Please stop lying to yourself and others.


You beat me to it!
Quoting 1105. RetainingH2O:

BEFORE you leave your home to evacuate... take photos. Take LOTS of photos.
Pictures of the roof, each side of your house, trees, fences, garden shed, garage, inside the home in each room, particularly expensive items (flat screen TV, antiques, china, appliances, etc...). Digital photos cost nearly nothing but about 5-minutes of your time.
When you talk to an insurance adjuster, having the photos makes a BIG difference. They can see the conditions of the home pre and post storm. Don't skimp on the photos.
Also, photograph your PETS. Get several angles and make sure they are recognizable in face, front view, side view.


Not good advice, GREAT advice.
Quoting 1124. Envoirment:

Does anyone have any up to date satellite links? Goes seems to be having issues again.


Link
Quoting 1095. neonlazer:



Uh, last time I checked my memory, it went down to cat 3.


Not consecutive, that number is total
Quoting 1091. washingtonian115:

You're full of ish.The GFS came more west and so has the HWRF.Please stop lying to yourself and others.


Thank you
One thing several neighbors did when they evacuated for Ike... made me nuts.
Before they left, they put their trash cans out at the street for collection. ??????
Trash collectors DON'T work just prior to a hurricane landfall in their area, nor do they collect trash in the 2-3 days immediately after landfall. All they did was place heavy debris, which WILL blow into somebody's house or yard, at the street conveniently for the wind to pick it up.
Do the world a favor. After they leave, move their trashcan back next to their house, use their garden hose and fill it full of water. It will be extremely heavy and probably won't move.
hiccup with the satellite ?
Hurricane Nicole.



Hurricane Matthew. When he fills in and pops out a larger eye, he gon look scary.

Good possibility it's a bit stronger now. Nicole upgrade is coming.
Quoting 1134. BobinTampa:

I always thought that storm surge was a much greater factor when the storm came in perpendicular to the coast as opposed to paralleling the coast. I'm a little surprised at some of the surge estimates. Wondering if they'll come to fruition.


For us in Tampa, that would be the case since water is pushed into the bay. But depends on the scenario. I'm in the Carrollwood/Citrus Park area btw.
Quoting 1125. CharlestonTigress:



Yup. I just read. Currently not living in Charleston but trying to help my parents decide whether to evacuate to the hotel rooms they have booked inland. They don't want to and they may be right. They're on high ground, biggest threat is wind damage (trees). I'm just reading and watching to see what transpires.

Remind them that it's not just what happens when a storm hits, it's weeks without electricity, water, or any other services....
Quoting 1048. thomaskerr1027:

Worried that not enough people are heeding evacuation orders. 11 years since a major Hurricane in the US - people got complacent and are putting themselves and emergency responders at risk


A lot of us are busy with final preparations. I'm inland a bit, but putting up my shutters nevertheless.
Quoting 1077. lexslamman:

GFS has trended eastward. So has HWRF. So has GDFL. So has the ECMWF. Most of the models are trending eastward now. I'm looking at the graphical runs, but a quick look at the spaghetti plots shows that the consensus is moving back to the right.


This guy would be saying the models are trending east when Matthew is over his head. Give it up, already. It is going to Florida and it will be a direct strike and a coastal scraper.
Quoting 1126. E46Pilot:



Don't you hate when people say what they wish they see as if it will make it come true?


Compare for yourself:
12z ensemble
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs _12z.png

6z ensemble
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs _06z.png

12z spaghetti
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_trac ks_12z.png

6z spaghetti
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_trac ks_12z.png

12z GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=20161006 12&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=298.1818117189015

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=20161006 12&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=231.81817679365815

6z GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=20161006 06&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=166.36363275780172

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=20161006 06&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=231.81817679365815
I think there is a definite ERC occurring. look at Radar full dry slot almost completely surrounding the small eye
Quoting 1114. tj175:




Save your jokes. This is a weather blog not a hate fest save that for a Trump rally
dont trash talk trump!
Quoting 1114. tj175:




Save your jokes. This is a weather blog not a hate fest save that for a Trump rally


My point is that they said 108 dead. Are these all confirmed direct hurricane fatalities?
Quoting 1137. OBXLurker:


Absolutely agree! Cantore was on this morning saying "Pressure is dropping; this could be a Category 5!" As if the people in Florida need to be more petrified than they already were.


The Weather Channel is like Nickelodeon. It's a channel for those "less mature" in the ways of weather.
WU is like a 4" Rib-Eye Steak. It's got some meat on the bone.
Mathew is pushing top 5 strongest ever to make landfall. Realistically we have no idea what he's capable of.
Quoting 1114. tj175:




save that for a Trump rally


Just couldn't help yourself?
Quoting 1153. boandjoe:

I think there is a definite ERC occurring. look at Radar full dry slot almost completely surrounding the small eye

Looks bad news to me. Can get the act for a really grand finale together well in time.
Quoting 1036. RichardBLong:




That looks to me like radar Attenuation. The radar beam is not able to penetrate all of the rain and it shows up as if nothing is there.
Quoting 1114. tj175:




Save your jokes. This is a weather blog not a hate fest save that for a Trump rally



oh man...ignore list for both of you.
Quoting 1128. wpb:

never have seen a season where more planes turned back to base.other p3 out of service for a year getting new wing and engines af c130 have issues all season. gulfstream jet in and out of service


it's ridiculous, half a dozen planes have had to cancel missions into just Matthew. Still no recon off the ground, freaking wonderful.
Matthew looks to be going through an eye wall replacement cycle, wind field is going to increase in size, worst case scenario unfolding for Florida coastline.
Recon is up. Let's pray she stays up. Haven't had any HH data in several hours now.
Quoting 1032. NutZilla:

Levi is headed for stardom!


We've known this for a long time.
Quoting 1156. NutZilla:



The Weather Channel is like Nickelodeon. It's a channel for those "less mature" in the ways of weather.
WU is like a 4" Rib-Eye Steak. It's got some meat on the bone.

*thickness, that 4''
1167. nash36
Quoting 1163. TheDawnAwakening:

Matthew looks to be going through an eye wall replacement cycle, wind field is going to increase in size, worst case scenario unfolding for Florida coastline.


It would be.
I will post as long as I can. Power lines are underground so hopefully we won't loose it too long
1169. snowboy
Quoting 1095. neonlazer:



Uh, last time I checked my memory, it went down to cat 3.


But let's be clear it is back to Cat 4 now. 140 mph at 1 pm NHC update, and Cat 4s are 130 to 156 mph.
Quoting 1164. Jbailey0531:

Recon is up. Let's pray she stays up. Haven't had any HH data in several hours now.


Do you have a website that provide HH position reports?
Plane in the air:

Quoting 1074. AndrewWasNotFun:

Dealing with these things is such a strange mix of emotions. Here in Dade we are of course very relieved that we won't get the brunt of Matthew. At the same time, there is a feeling of frustration when you scramble around to get supplies, gas the car, get cash, get food, secure your home, secure your business, and get hunkered down, only to have it be a non-event. I know that it is better safe than sorry, but sitting here on zero sleep for 1.5 days its a strange mix of feelings.
The trick is to avoid scrambling. Don't wait for the masses. Blog will sound early alerts.
1173. IDTH
AF303 Unassigned Mission
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 17:33 UTC Oct 06, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 18.87°N 79.35°W
Bearing: 270° at 341 kt
Altitude: 6429 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 196°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

Quoting 1128. wpb:

never have seen a season where more planes turned back to base.other p3 out of service for a year getting new wing and engines af c130 have issues all season. gulfstream jet in and out of service


They are all very.....very....old aircraft that need a lot of maintenance. I won't get political.......
Redeployed 40 miles or so west, near OIA. Hope that's good enough!

Quoting 1164. Jbailey0531:

Recon is up. Let's pray she stays up. Haven't had any HH data in several hours now.


They made sure everyone went potty and brought a snack so they wouldn't have to turn around again. I'm pretty sure they're good to go this time.
Quoting 1163. TheDawnAwakening:

Matthew looks to be going through an eye wall replacement cycle, wind field is going to increase in size, worst case scenario unfolding for Florida coastline.
Not so sure, I think we need a microwave pass to confirm this but just might be dry air to the south. The eye that would form if it is is like 50miles across and that is exceedingly unlikely for a storm this strength.
Pinellas county schools closed. Not expecting tropical storm force winds and expecting less than 1" of rain. Not going to be a bad day.
And alot of people on here said it would be a bust season. Would like to get there take on those statements! Here in Melbourne and right along coast isn't going to look same for sometime. And if anybody has ever been to the space coast, it's very nice place to live. Hope those people who said a bust season take a good look at the pics after the storm and tell me what they think. Season isn't over till November 30.
Quoting 1106. HrDelta:



6. Alex, Earl, Gaston (Major), Hermine, Matthew (Major, Formerly Category 5), and Nicole
Quoting 1170. aERonAUtical96:



Do you have a website that provide HH position reports?


Levi's tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 1170. aERonAUtical96:



Do you have a website that provide HH position reports?


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Quoting 1171. Envoirment:

Plane in the air:




Thats Gonzo... won't get any readings from that
Quoting 1172. southernstorm:

The trick is to avoid scrambling. Don't wait for the masses. Blog will sound early alerts.


You are definitely right. But after ten years of not being hit, it's very easy to be lulled into a false sense of security.
1186. IDTH
Unfortunately the GFS shows Nicole hitting Bermuda in this run.

Quoting 1121. PPUGrad04:

Quoting 1077. lexslamman:

GFS has trended eastward. So has HWRF. So has GDFL. So has the ECMWF. Most of the models are trending eastward now. I'm looking at the graphical runs, but a quick look at the spaghetti plots shows that the consensus is moving back to the right.

He can't help it. He's been like this for days now. Never posting anything to back up his claims.

Ignore him.
Meh. I really don't care if the doomcasters among us ignore me. I don't post images, links, videos and loops typically because the blog is already cluttered with that sort of stuff and it slows everything down for the rest of us.
Been watching this cam on and off all morning

Link

People looking like the Kardashians with all of their "big wave, look at me I'm going to ride out a hurricane" selfies


First...downed airplanes. Now...THIS!
1190. WeiWei
Checking in briefly from Vero Beach and obviously extremely nervous. Good luck to everyone in Matthew's path.
1191. NCSCguy
Quoting 1118. lexslamman:

Not at all. The 12z GFS is clearly farther to the east than the 6z on the storms approach to the coast and on the timing and severity of it's rightward turn - same with runs of the HWRF. The models are clearly trending eastward on the overall track. Furthermore, most of the models are now predicting that the storm will start heading eastward and then southward earlier on its track than previously indicated.

It shows Matthew paralleling the coast. And almost right on it. This close to action time, that is not good.
ZNS (Bahamas) News UPDATE:
National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is warning people to report any rescue personnel that rush to their homes because NEMA has not sent personnel out while the storm is still overhead. The government suspects that fake emergency and rescue people may be attempting to loot the areas before the police can get control. Anyone attempting to help others on their own need to make themselves known to police and the Bahamas Defense Forces.

Law enforcement in Florida may want to make people aware this is a possibility.
When the say this, "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island."

Does that mean the total tropical storm force and hurricane force winds are 220 miles together?
Yeah it might just be a dry moat, not dry air, just a moat.
Quoting 1190. WeiWei:

Checking in briefly from Vero Beach and obviously extremely nervous. Good luck to everyone in Matthew's path.


Are you all battened down? In a good structure? All good luck and blessings!
1196. ADCS
Quoting 1147. RavensFan:



For us in Tampa, that would be the case since water is pushed into the bay. But depends on the scenario. I'm in the Carrollwood/Citrus Park area btw.


Surge would actually be worse for Tampa with a parallel strike, owing to the shape of Tampa Bay. You'd be catching the strongest side of the storm the entire time, and wouldn't have the Pinellas Peninsula there to absorb many of the surge vectors as they continually pushed water up from Anna Maria. A NNE track landfalling at Treasure Island would be the worst-case scenario, I'd think.

Perpendicular strikes are worse on the FL east coast, as that is what is necessary to get the east side of the storm.
Quoting 1174. E46Pilot:



They are all very.....very....old aircraft that need a lot of maintenance. I won't get political.......


Hey, look at it this way - we still have the F-35 fighter jets. Perhaps we can use them for HH recon. /sarc

http://www.salon.com/2015/12/10/5_outrageously_ex pensive_and_completely_useless_defense_projects_yo ur_tax_dollars_are_subsidizing_partner/
Yes the feeder band already is having a slight impact on the lake. When another 10 feeder bands go through it may approach highwater levels. Here is a plot of lake height, and you can see just a tiny uptick at the extreme right end of the chart.


Bookmark Link Lake Okeechobee Water Levels


Quoting 1110. gordydunnot:

Long range radar loop out of Miami does not bode well for Fl.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 16:37Z
Date: October 6, 2016
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
1200. NCSaint
AF-303 airborne again
1201. snowboy
Quoting 1144. hurricanehanna:

hiccup with the satellite ?


almost all imagery is down - not a good time for this
I still can't see a Low-level Reconnaissance aircraft on the way to Matthew. NOAA9 is an upper level mission and AF303 is on the way from Jamaica to Texas???
Quoting 1183. DurhamWeatherLover:



Seriously? Completely inappropriate.


No...not seriously. J/K....

Still...those not evacuating are in a high risk situation. Maybe mocking their decision will get them out of there!
Winds gusting now to TS force due East of Palm Beach at Sett Point in the Bahamas............Up about 15 knots from a few hours ago and a rapid pressure drop at present:

NDBCLocation: 26.704N 78.995WDate: Thu, 6 Oct 2016 17:00:00 UTCWinds: NE (40°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 41.0 ktAtmospheric Pressure: 29.58 in and falling rapidlyAir Temperature: 77.5 FDew Point: 73.9 F
1205. Smitter
Quoting 1016. VegasRain:

12z HWRF hints at upcoming Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

That new eye would dwarf Lake O.
I was going to say good thing we have satellite as the planes are down, oops at least we got radar. Hope the Ruskies can't get our radar. J/K
12Z GFS is still west and even more inland past daytona.
Thanks you all for your comments. I just read all the comments and appreciate a lot of your insights. Prayers for those of you who may be impacted by this..from a Texas Gulf Coast brat!!
Quoting 1174. E46Pilot:



They are all very.....very....old aircraft that need a lot of maintenance. I won't get political.......


The WC-130J is a very recent aircraft. In terms of the C-130 fleet, the J is the newest and most modern variant.
Quoting 1134. BobinTampa:

I always thought that storm surge was a much greater factor when the storm came in perpendicular to the coast as opposed to paralleling the coast. I'm a little surprised at some of the surge estimates. Wondering if they'll come to fruition.


I'm not sure we know exactly what the storm "surge" was in Bolivar. A big part of what happened there was happening a day in advance where water was "piled" in and not allowed to retreat with outgoing tides due to the strong onshore flow. This "piling" is what greatly concerns me for the N Fl, Ga, and Southern Sc coast lines.

GFDL 12z - These are surface winds. The wind gusts would be much higher.







1211. HrDelta
Quoting 1180. hurricanewatcher61:

And alot of people on here said it would be a bust season. Would like to get there take on those statements! Here in Melbourne and right along coast isn't going to look same for sometime. And if anybody has ever been to the space coast, it's very nice place to live. Hope those people who said a bust season take a good look at the pics after the storm and tell me what they think. Season isn't over till November 30.


You only need 1 storm for a memorable/bad season.

Look at 1992.
1212. IDTH
Quoting 1189. NutZilla:



First...downed airplanes. Now...THIS!

I think I read somewhere about a solar storm. I don't remember where though. I might be totally wrong but this is my guess.
Matthew is almost to the latitude of Miami so a landfall in S.E. Florida is looking very unlikely (but anything is possible with weather).
But Matthew would need to turn and go WNW for a S.E. Florida landfall.

I'm think the most likely landfall location (If it does make a landfall) will be just south of Cape Canaveral.

Everything is subject to change. I'm just going off of what I've been seeing the past 6 hours or so.
Quoting 1184. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats Gonzo... won't get any readings from that


Oops sorry getting all my planes mixed up! Seems to be 3-4 planes in the air or on the runway.
Quoting 1193. Tokenfreak:

When the say this, "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island."

Does that mean the total tropical storm force and hurricane force winds are 220 miles together?

120 mile wide dot of hurricane force, 320 mile dot of tropical force with hurricane force located within
Quoting 1168. ProgressivePulse:

I will post as long as I can. Power lines are underground so hopefully we won't loose it too long


They may be underground in your neighborhood....but they most def are above ground outside of the neighborhood somewhere. That's where the problem is......learned that during Wilma
1217. tj175
Quoting 1155. lurkNoMore:



My point is that they said 108 dead. Are these all confirmed direct hurricane fatalities?



Who cares bro its confirmed that 108 people are dead in Haiti and its related to the storm. All the extra stuff about Detroit doesn't even matter smh. We have a CAT 4 hurricane barreling towards Florida right now which is where i live and many people are at risk of death and destruction. Save the unnecessary comments the blog already has people giving enough false info as it is. Can we get back to weather talk please?
It only takes 1. Stay safe.


Quoting 1180. hurricanewatcher61:

And alot of people on here said it would be a bust season. Would like to get there take on those statements! Here in Melbourne and right along coast isn't going to look same for sometime. And if anybody has ever been to the space coast, it's very nice place to live. Hope those people who said a bust season take a good look at the pics after the storm and tell me what they think. Season isn't over till November 30.
This is one of the times I wish I still had TWC (my parents have FIOS) because it's honestly something else to watch TWC journalists reporting LIVE in these hurricanes...
1220. aidaman
Quoting 1116. chrisdscane:



Thays another channel navigated and another piece of land missed by the eye.


Whoever is lead blocking for mathew is going to the hall of fame


It's Tebow, isn't it?
I see that Levi has his You Tube Tropical Tidbits video linked on The DrudgeReport. That's quite the big deal. Well done Levi! Everybody stay safe and you all have a good one.
Bob
Quoting 1203. NutZilla:



No...not seriously. J/K....

Still...those not evacuating are in a high risk situation. Maybe mocking their decision will get them out of there!

Or imprint the lesson a bit more in the survivors.
I tried it wrt climate change, cynical mockery.
In fact, Matthew could become something like my 'Miami-off-the-map-hurricane', a political game changer, a very last chance to save society (the planet doesn't give a damn, of course).
Presently, I feel compelled to silence about this special rational sentiment. Nuff said I dare say.
Quoting 1219. Articuno:

This is one of the times I wish I still had TWC (my parents have FIOS) because it's honestly something else to watch TWC journalists reporting LIVE in these hurricanes...


Right, I hate that Fios doesn't get TWC anymore...
NDBC bouy to the right of Matthew's track should be steady increasing wind and pressure decreasing
Location: 26.704N 78.995W
Date: Thu, 6 Oct 2016 17:00:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40) at 36.9 kt gusting to 41.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.58 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Dew Point: 73.9 F
Quoting 1197. PPUGrad04:



Hey, look at it this way - we still have the F-35 fighter jets. Perhaps we can use them for HH recon. /sarc

http://www.salon.com/2015/12/10/5_outrageously_ex pensive_and_completely_useless_defense_projects_yo ur_tax_dollars_are_subsidizing_partner/


Nice argument. The WC-130J that they are flying is a very new, very modern, very tough aircraft. To argue that they are being shorted (and to use a Salon.com article) means you're just out to regurgitate talking points.

This storm has more than tripled my ignore list..
1226. IDTH
Quoting 1214. Envoirment:



Oops sorry getting all my planes mixed up! Seems to be 3-4 planes in the air or on the runway.

There's this one which I'm curious about

AF303 Unassigned Mission
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 17:33 UTC Oct 06, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 18.87°N 79.35°W
Bearing: 270° at 341 kt
Altitude: 6429 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 196°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A


1227. jimijr
The water is warm but shallow on the banks. Matt may have already used up all the calories available there. By the time the eyewall gets a chance to beef up over the Gulf Stream, the larger circulation will have long been feeling the land. So I would say no great accession of strength is likely next 24 hours, perhaps only a very narrow band surrounding a tiny eye digging the current just off shore. On the other hand the only shear I see to hold the eye off shore is above 400 mb. Asymmetries will arise, horizontal and vertical, glad I'm not forecaster-in-charge.
Quoting 1210. StormJunkie:



I'm not sure we know exactly what the storm "surge" was in Bolivar. A big part of what happened there was happening a day in advance where water was "piled" in and not allowed to retreat with outgoing tides due to the strong onshore flow. This "piling" is what greatly concerns me for the N Fl, Ga, and Southern Sc coast lines.

GFDL 12z - These are surface winds. The wind gusts would be much higher.


With Matthew's projected track, I believe "a snow blower" effect is an adequate analogy of what it is going to do to the coast.

If that Wisconsin couple is tuned in, maybe this analogy will ring home.
Quoting 1223. RavensFan:



Right, I hate that Fios doesn't get TWC anymore...


TWC live online

Link


Sorry, last post was giving me trouble posting this...the red dot is hurricane force winds at 11am
If the cimms steering guidance is reasonably accurate then a strengthening storm would trend to a more northerly track and keep the eye off shore from Florida. Any thoughts on that scenario?
Quoting 1130. georgevandenberghe:



Like when you go on a beach holiday and overnight, the families are replaced by newspeople with Jim Cantore getting the room next to you.




A few years back I was with the wife and daughter sitting on Pensacola Beach when after about 45 minutes I look over to my right and there was Jim and cameraman walking out onto the beach. Needless to say, we packed up and went home just 20 minutes from the beach. lol. My wife didn't understand the "Cantore Effect".
What is going on with recon? It's astounding that they somehow do not have a plane in an intensifying Cat. 4 hours from US landfall. Based on Google Earth, I don't even see one on the way. Am I missing something?
Quoting 1229. DakeMisc:



TWC live online

Link


THANK YOU!!!!!!! I'm at work at its dead so I needed something to watch! I thought I'd eventually just ruin my F5 button.
Quoting 1212. IDTH:


I think I read somewhere about a solar storm. I don't remember where though. I might be totally wrong but this is my guess.


No. Sun is dead quiet at the moment, not to blame.
I have a bad feeling with this storm. I used to live in Florida and I'm very familiar with these areas that are going to be impacted. They are highly populated and I'm afraid a lot of people won't leave I hope the storm will stay off shore and spare them from the worst of the winds and surge. This watching and waiting is awful.
Good jump to the N on radar.
Euro 12Z initilization
1239. GatorWX
Click for loop.



Something's awry with that core, imo.
Quoting 1231. standurground:

If the cimms steering guidance is reasonably accurate then a strengthening storm would trend to a more northerly track and keep the eye off shore from Florida. Any thoughts on that scenario?

NHC discussed the subject ...Link


4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
looking more and more likely that my prediction of mathew missing landfall by 100 miles is correct
1243. prioris
Extrapolating from graphics, looks to be coming ashore anywhere from Port St Lucie to Melbourne.
Quoting 1229. DakeMisc:



TWC live online

Link


Uhhhh.... Not live... :(
Hello, Hurricane Nicole.
Ok. I was able to rattle my friend in cocoa beach a little when I told her Katrina made landfall as a cat 3.
Hello ! Been watching and looking for my old pals on here, happy to see so many now. I am in Murrells Inlet SC and getting very mixed local forecasts, except for NHC. Being told to prepare for major flooding and power outages & beach front evacuations are taking place now... Anyone have anything to add for this area? Expected winds ? Our grounds are literally saturated and I am worried about trees falling fast and furiously. I am not a weather person, just come here for local support.
Quoting 1231. standurground:

If the cimms steering guidance is reasonably accurate then a strengthening storm would trend to a more northerly track and keep the eye off shore from Florida. Any thoughts on that scenario?


Yes. That is very, very bad for N Fl, Ga, and Southern SC...He has also been traveling just to the E of the model guidance over the last 12 hrs.
Nicole looking well. Wish Matthew wasn't so scary. We could for giggles put a plane in Nicole.





000
WTNT45 KNHC 061744
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.
The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this
morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The
intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since
the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional
strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to
increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2
models thereafter.

Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous
regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to
24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next
several days.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



I already told my mother that. Unfortunately her live in boyfriend is more concerned about the boat they have docked outside. I can't even go there in my head or i will loose it all together. If I wasn't confined to the couch due hip surgery I would have gone and dragged her out myself

Quoting 1099. tanda35:

So posters 907 and 1070, be sure your loved ones that won't heed the warnings to evac, use a Sharpie and write their SS# on there arm, so there bodies can be identified later.
Local met here in Miami said an outer eyewall is forming and Matthew be undergoing an EWRC. $ But doesnt that mean the wind field would expand and eye wall would be much more spread out since the eye would become bigger ? ???
Quoting 1179. Bucsboltsfan:

Pinellas county schools closed. Not expecting tropical storm force winds and expecting less than 1" of rain. Not going to be a bad day.
You're underestimating the strength of this storm. While, I don't expect this to be anything like Hermine on the West Coast a few feeder bands capable of producing wind gusts over tropical storm strength is definitely possible in parts of the area. It's breezy out there right now and the storm is still 100s of miles southeast of Florida. That should give us an indication that winds will only pick up.
1253. GatorWX
And its motion seems to have a more northward bias, atm. Hmmmmm

Perhaps an ewrc, but not sure. We know how they bounce around in the process.
Quoting 1188. justmehouston:

Been watching this cam on and off all morning

Link

People looking like the Kardashians with all of their "big wave, look at me I'm going to ride out a hurricane" selfies


Just watched a guy go into the water for a swim.....ya think the words "RIP TIDE" might just be something to be aware of?

On another note, any word from Baha yet?

Lindy
1255. IDTH
Quoting 1235. Astrometeor:



No. Sun is dead quiet at the moment, not to blame.

I figured.
Quoting 1213. Sfloridacat5:

Matthew is almost to the latitude of Miami so a landfall in S.E. Florida is looking very unlikely (but anything is possible with weather).
But Matthew would need to turn and go WNW for a S.E. Florida landfall.

I'm think the most likely landfall location (If it does makes a landfall) will be just south of Cape Canaveral.

Everything is subject to change. I'm just going off of what I've been seeing the past 6 hours or so.


Thats not good.....homes it that area are not built to the same code as south FL homes were. Most of those homes are wood and not CMU construction.
What sucks is that every time a very serious storm like this comes and you advise friends and family to take it seriously, only to have the storm not make a major impact, the more you lose credibility with them for next time. Here in Miami-Dade the "told ya so" crowd is already out on social media poking fun of those who took it seriously.
1258. IDTH
Levi is as confused as us!

img src=" ">
Quoting 1248. StormJunkie:



Yes. That is very, very bad for N Fl, Ga, and Southern SC...He has also been traveling just to the E of the model guidance over the last 12 hrs.
Almost everything projecting Matthew's future track seems to be moving to the right over the past 6-18 hours.
Matthew has confirmed killed 136 people in Haiti. Many villages & towns were destroyed and several areas are still cut off. The final death toll will be much higher. RIP
Quoting 1242. chrisdscane:

looking more and more likely that my prediction of mathew missing landfall by 100 miles is correct


Are you eating paint chips?
12z Euro has matthew making landfall on the Space Coast
Great radar here for the eye...imho: mousewheel zoom..left click to drag.
Can animate..
Link
We still have the Blob...

I just checked the buoys and the stations south of Palm Beach -- all show a tendency for the wind to shift from a northeasterly direction to a more notherly one. Miami has even gone to a N-northwest wind. This suggests landfall will not occur south of vero beach without a major unexpected hook in the track.

Here is the lake worth buoy which is close to Palm Beach, showing the more northerly wind direction over the last 2 hours: Link

It seems very suspicious that all visable satellites are down.
Quoting 1257. AndrewWasNotFun:

What sucks is that every time a very serious storm like this comes and you advise friends and family to take it seriously, only to have the storm not make a major impact, the more you lose credibility with them for next time. Here in Miami-Dade the "told ya so" crowd is already out on social media poking fun of those who took it seriously.
That's why the NHC historically tends to be conservative with storms, and when they come out with 'dire' messages - like ahead of Katrina - it's really quite extraordinary. That's also why you shouldn't 'doomcast' or listen to 'doomcasters' - they're destroying the credibility of storm prediction by freaking people out.
Quoting 1257. AndrewWasNotFun:

What sucks is that every time a very serious storm like this comes and you advise friends and family to take it seriously, only to have the storm not make a major impact, the more you lose credibility with them for next time. Here in Miami-Dade the "told ya so" crowd is already out on social media poking fun of those who took it seriously.


That's unfortunate because no serious source was saying Miami would have serious impacts.
1269. hmroe
Quoting 1233. FlyingScotsman:

What is going on with recon? It's astounding that they somehow do not have a plane in an intensifying Cat. 4 hours from US landfall. Based on Google Earth, I don't even see one on the way. Am I missing something?


HH schedule Link
1270. cynyc2
Quoting 666. swflurker:

Really? That comment number? Lucky me!


When I looked, you had 6 pluses too! - no I didn't plus you, would have messed up the feng shui...
1271. BayFog
1272. nash36
Quoting 1248. StormJunkie:



Yes. That is very, very bad for N Fl, Ga, and Southern SC...He has also been traveling just to the E of the model guidance over the last 12 hrs.


I'm not liking these small trends.
Good news - my friends with a family of 3 in Daytona Beach area decided to evacuate their mobile home. Now I'm just hoping my friend in Melbourne Beach leaves.
..HURRICANE MATTHEW RELENTLESSLY POUNDING THE BAHAMAS... ...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...
2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 6
Location: 25.7%uFFFDN 78.4%uFFFDW
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

1275. snowboy
Quoting 1227. jimijr:

The water is warm but shallow on the banks. Matt may have already used up all the calories available there. By the time the eyewall gets a chance to beef up over the Gulf Stream, the larger circulation will have long been feeling the land. So I would say no great accession of strength is likely next 24 hours, perhaps only a very narrow band surrounding a tiny eye digging the current just off shore. On the other hand the only shear I see to hold the eye off shore is above 400 mb. Asymmetries will arise, horizontal and vertical, glad I'm not forecaster-in-charge.


Matthew has been strengthening steadily since clearing Cuba.
Quoting 1253. GatorWX:

And its motion seems to have a more northward bias, atm. Hmmmmm

Perhaps an ewrc, but not sure. We know how they bounce around in the process.

Probably wobbles, still moving NW as it has moved the same amount of latitude and longitude. Landfall likely near the Space Coast tomorrow morning
1277. LemieT
Quoting 1233. FlyingScotsman:

What is going on with recon? It's astounding that they somehow do not have a plane in an intensifying Cat. 4 hours from US landfall. Based on Google Earth, I don't even see one on the way. Am I missing something?


No recon and now no Satellite either...
Looking at the rada I do believe this is going through an EWRC, the replacement eye will be huge however, quite astounding considering this thing has kept it pretty small the whole time.
Quoting 1254. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Just watched a guy go into the water for a swim.....ya think the words "RIP TIDE" might just be something to be aware of?

On another note, any word from Baha yet?

Lindy


Havent seen Baha today ...she has been on my mind though.
She said she would check in once "technology" would allow her to
One of the biggest reasons for roof failure in a hurricane is attached carports, extended porches and awnings that catch the wind, pull the facia boards they are nailed to and rip off a section of the roof as they are lifted.
If something like this is on the NORTH or EAST side of your home in one of those coastal counties... you may have a potential problem.
If you can remove the metal panels, boards or fabric before the hurricane, then there isn't anything left to catch the wind. If that isn't possible, then try a couple of emergency measures. A standard large ice chest holds about 6 cubic feet of water. Full of water, it weighs roughly 350 lbs. A 55 gallon trash drum (or the big plastic ones you wheel out to the street) weighs 410 lbs full of water, and a standard 30-gallon trash can weighs 225 lbs.
Throw several heavy ropes over the awning or car port. Secure them to the empty ice chests or trash drums. Make sure the ropes are well anchored (not just to a handle). Set the empty vessels such that the rope is nearly taught. Use your garden hose to fill them with water... adjusting as needed.
If you have about 1,000 lbs of weight on one side of the carport or awning, and 1,000 lb of weight on the opposite with heavy ropes over the structure... it will take a LOT of uplift force to overcome the 2,000 lbs. Every bit of weight you can add will help. It may not save the awning, but it could also make the difference between having a roof or not. It's an easy and quick thing to do. You can use the same method of securing your smoker, swing set or anything else outdoors that can't realistically be moved.

Next tip: If you don't have a garage and don't know what to do about your lawn furniture... throw it in your swimming pool. The table and chairs will sink to the bottom of the pool, or at the very least float just below the surface. You can get them back out after the storm. It isn't as hard as you'd think.

Good luck.
Quoting 1266. CypressJim08:

It seems very suspicious that all visable satellites are down.

I got my tin foil hat
1282. IDTH

Quoting 1242. chrisdscane:

looking more and more likely that my prediction of mathew missing landfall by 100 miles is correct


HUH??? What you been smokn?
Particular Dangerous Situation

014L/MH/M/C4
Has Chicklit checked in today? Last night she said she was staying on a barrier island.
Quoting 1266. CypressJim08:

It seems very suspicious that all visable satellites are down.


There's plenty of others that are working fine.

Link
1287. pingon
Quoting 1257. AndrewWasNotFun:

What sucks is that every time a very serious storm like this comes and you advise friends and family to take it seriously, only to have the storm not make a major impact, the more you lose credibility with them for next time. Here in Miami-Dade the "told ya so" crowd is already out on social media poking fun of those who took it seriously.
And you care what they say?
1288. JM2
Quoting 1265. leftlink:
I just checked the buoys and the stations south of Palm Beach -- all show a tendency for the wind to shift from a northeasterly direction to a more notherly one. Miami has even gone to a N-northwest wind. This suggests landfall will not occur south of vero beach without a major unexpected hook in the track.


A voice of reason... good analysis.

2PM update is out, no changes, still on track, still the same strength. The SFL coast is just now starting to get some TS force winds, hurricane winds are still well offshore.
Quoting 1213. Sfloridacat5:

Matthew is almost to the latitude of Miami so a landfall in S.E. Florida is looking very unlikely (but anything is possible with weather).
But Matthew would need to turn and go WNW for a S.E. Florida landfall.

I'm think the most likely landfall location (If it does make a landfall) will be just south of Cape Canaveral.

Everything is subject to change. I'm just going off of what I've been seeing the past 6 hours or so.
If Matthew makes a landfall - and that's still an if - I would guess somewhere where the curve of the coast is more conducive to the eye crossing over. Some place like Hilton Head, Tybee Island, Pritchard's Island or Kiawah Island. My 'gut feeling' is that there is no official landfall.
Quoting 1283. wantsnow:



HUH??? What you been smokn?


just a prediction hope im right but could be wrong
Quoting 1263. Starhopper:

Great radar here for the eye...imho: mousewheel zoom..left click to drag.
Can animate..
Link


Or if you are on a mobile device then use the storm app. It's a wonderful app.
i know everyone will think i'm crazy but hear me out, what if the govt is going to use HARRP to deflect the system? i mean the H hunter leaves with whatever problem it had, now satellites are down?? just could be a coincidence but nothing would surprise me anymore.
1293. IDTH
Okay does anyone have a recent microwave pass? I'm curious because it looks to me that the storm just based on radar and satellite is going through an EWRC.

EDIT: that or it's developing a double eyewall.
1294. tj175
Quoting 1257. AndrewWasNotFun:

What sucks is that every time a very serious storm like this comes and you advise friends and family to take it seriously, only to have the storm not make a major impact, the more you lose credibility with them for next time. Here in Miami-Dade the "told ya so" crowd is already out on social media poking fun of those who took it seriously.


Yeah South Florida residents are known to be like that. Living down here we have to take very storm serious that comes our way even if it doesn't make a direct impact. That kind of mindset of " oh next time I'm not going to prepare" is the same one that caught a lot of people off guard when Wilma came through our area. Many people didn't anticipate her reaching the East coast of Florida with those strong winds. You did the right thing
Maybe an eyewall replacement cycle coming?
1296. snowboy
Quoting 1242. chrisdscane:

looking more and more likely that my prediction of mathew missing landfall by 100 miles is correct


Looking more and more like you don't have a clue.
Quoting 1279. justmehouston:



Havent seen Baha today ...she has been on my mind though.
She said she would check in once "technology" would allow her to


barbamz said she checked in early this am...I haven't seen her since
1298. nash36
Looking to me like he is interested in visiting Freeport.
1300. barbamz



Click the pic.twitter.com link.
Quoting 1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Particular Dangerous Situation

014L/MH/M/C4

Looks like a right-hand turn is starting on that sat loop.
Quoting 874. VegasRain:

The eye looks to have contracted down to less than 10mi. Looks like there is a band encircling the inner core. Is there a chance of an ERC and that the inner eye will become too small and collapse before landfall? That might knock the storm down and spare the coast the highest winds.

Quoting 882. TheDawnAwakening:




Radar shows no signs of an EWRC. There are no concentric eye walls present.


How about now?
Quoting 1285. DurhamWeatherLover:

Has Chicklit checked in today? Last night she said she was staying on a barrier island.


She hasnt been on either ... another one weighing heavy on my mind
They will all show up as soon as they can
Quoting 1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Particular Dangerous Situation

014L/MH/M/C4


Looks like its stacking expanding plates or something.
Now, Gulf Stream.
1305. wpb
not one recon from noaa or af in or enroute to the hurricane.
fleet has issue or planning is poor or both.
1306. IDTH

1307. intampa
Quoting 1207. Surferdude:

12Z GFS is still west and even more inland past daytona.
Not sure how accurate because I didnt see it but was told that at the 12 noon news FOX 13 Tampa weather forecaster mentioned this also.
1308. Gaara
Quoting 1290. chrisdscane:



just a prediction hope im right but could be wrong


Considering it's 130 miles off shore, you're pretty much guaranteed to be wrong with its current motion.
A possible EWRC and the storm moving over the Gulf Stream I dont think will mix well...... if the storm could blow up near the coast of Haiti after and EWRC and landfall at full force.... it can do it this time.

And EWRC are known to increase the size of the hurricane and its span of hurricane and tropical storm force winds.... not good.
Riding the coast offshore is the best scenario for everyone, could happen.
Euro is pretty much in line with HWRF and GFDL. A blend of the three seems reasonable. This is looking like it could be a very dire situation for N Fl, Ga, and Southern Sc.
My guy in Georgetown, on Exuma, an old timer, says that was the worst storm he's seen by far.

But he has cell service, and electricity, and knows of no serious injuries. The people of 23.5/-75.7 seem OK thank goodness.

Centre passed about thirty miles west last night.
1313. robj144
Quoting 1301. lexslamman:

Looks like a right-hand turn is starting on that sat loop.


It looks like a wobble to me.
Quoting 1266. CypressJim08:

It seems very suspicious that all visable satellites are down.


Hillary Clinton!
12Z Euro puts the center right over Cape Canaveral at 24 hours.
For Broward and Miami this is gonna be a huge bust.All the panic on local channels for 40mph winds
Quoting 1292. Nolehead:

i know everyone will think i'm crazy but hear me out, what if the govt is going to use HARRP to deflect the system? i mean the H hunter leaves with whatever problem it had, now satellites are down?? just could be a coincidence but nothing would surprise me anymore.

I was waiting for these comments to roll in...
1318. mrjr101
Miami area is due west of the center of the storm. Buh bye tropical storm conditions for Miami Dade County. Broward, you're next in line to wave the storm goodbye.
Quoting 1301. lexslamman:

Looks like a right-hand turn is starting on that sat loop.



wobble
1320. IDTH
Quoting 1292. Nolehead:

i know everyone will think i'm crazy but hear me out, what if the govt is going to use HARRP to deflect the system? i mean the H hunter leaves with whatever problem it had, now satellites are down?? just could be a coincidence but nothing would surprise me anymore.

Flagged and ignored.
I am reading 109 miles due EAST off Key Biscayne on google earth.
Please note the forward speed is now 14mph. It won't be quite the slow process
we have been watching. It will advance noticeably more now so be ready.
Plus side:
I do know that the faster it goes by you? the less time it spends over you.

Part of NHC 2pm advisory:
"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km) "

Tropical force winds are close to Florida now. If not on it over on the E.
1322. Sally05
Where is the best site to see the updated models? Thank you in advance
SecretStormNerd
6:05 PM GMT on October 06, 2016
0 +
Quoting 1292. Nolehead:

i know everyone will think i'm crazy but hear me out, what if the govt is going to use HARRP to deflect the system? i mean the H hunter leaves with whatever problem it had, now satellites are down?? just could be a coincidence but nothing would surprise me anymore.

I was waiting for these comments to roll in...



if they do then it's a good thing.....just saying... :)
1324. TrryHin
Quoting 1219. Articuno:

This is one of the times I wish I still had TWC (my parents have FIOS) because it's honestly something else to watch TWC journalists reporting LIVE in these hurricanes...


You can watch on YouTube - Link
1325. mrjr101
Quoting 1316. MeteorologistTV:

For Broward and Miami this is gonna be a huge bust.All the panic on local channels for 40mph winds

Not even...
1326. GatorWX
Quoting 1252. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You're underestimating the strength of this storm. While, I don't expect this to be anything like Hermine on the West Coast a few feeder bands capable of producing wind gusts over tropical storm strength is definitely possible in parts of the area. It's breezy out there right now and the storm is still 100s of miles southeast of Florida. That should give us an indication that winds will only pick up.


It could be too they're opening them for shelter purposes for those coming from the East Coast. This is what was reported to be happening in Sarasota County.
Radar still looks good.........
Quoting 1293. IDTH:

Okay does anyone have a recent microwave pass? I'm curious because it looks to me that the storm just based on radar and satellite is going through an EWRC.

EDIT: that or it's developing a double eyewall.


That's the same thing. Double eyewall = EWRC. It's how the cycle begins. Outer eyewall forms, encircles inner eye wall. Inner wall collapses, outer takes over. Hurricane force winds spread outwards and then storm can restrengthen from there.

Issue with Matthew is speed. How fast can he replace his eyewall versus his forward motion? And how much weaker will he be during the process?
1329. IDTH
Quoting 1322. Sally05:

Where is the best site to see the updated models? Thank you in advance

tropicaltidbits.com
What's with the GFS tracks showing looping back into the GOM. I've never seen that before. It's still a long way out, but that seems like an insane path to take. It could end up hitting some places twice if it does that!

Quoting 1316. MeteorologistTV:

For Broward and Miami this is gonna be a huge bust.All the panic on local channels for 40mph winds


How many different ways are you going to post the same thing? We get it.....
GUIDANCE ONLY
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRES 17Z RUN HR 4
1333. will45
Quoting 1322. Sally05:

Where is the best site to see the updated models? Thank you in advance



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Maybe Nicole's being influenced by Matthew to fight off the shear lol. Nicole has a chance of becoming a major hurricane - will be watching her closely over the next day or so.
1335. JM2
Quoting 1301. lexslamman:

Looks like a right-hand turn is starting on that sat loop.

Matt is about 15 miles E of his forecast position. Is this the start of the NNW motion or just a wobble to the east?

Very easy to track on radar now... pull up the Wundermap, turn on radar and hurricane layers.
Can anyone post a link or give me a news channel site that is streaming live updates? I don't have cable... Thanks in advance.
Death toll in Haiti is now up to at least 136, total toll from Matthew is 142 now - including 4 in Dominican Republic, 1 in Colombia, 1 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
@TropicalTidbits: #Matthew appears to be forming concentric eyewalls, which could result in a larger area of hurricane force winds im… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/78409161748977664 0
Sat img #Matthew and #Nicole 1:45pm EDT
#GOES13 https://twitter.com/cheeers1/status/7840928830411 61216
its developed a mote around the core ... perhaps that will cut off the center and make it weaken?
Just talked to Presslord in Sav. He is saying that water is already up 1-2 foot in Sav. This is the piling that has me...freaked out to be quite honest. This scenario is damn near identical to Bolivar.

Quoting 1318. mrjr101:

Miami area is due west of the center of the storm. Buh bye tropical storm conditions for Miami Dade County. Broward, you're next in line to wave the storm goodbye.


That doesn't even make sense. The storm will make its closest approach to us once it is just east of West Palm beach. Furthermore it appears the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and then new eye looks huge. This will spread out the most intense winds and expand the whole wind field
Quoting 1334. Envoirment:

Maybe Nicole's being influenced by Matthew to fight off the shear lol. Nicole has a chance of becoming a major hurricane - will be watching her closely over the next day or so.


She's not going to be a threat to land though.
1344. ProPoly
Quoting 1330. TheInsomniac4:

What's with the GFS tracks showing looping back into the GOM. I've never seen that before. It's still a long way out, but that seems like an insane path to take. It could end up hitting some places twice if it does that!




Ivan and Jeanne did loops. It's not impossible but it is very much a minor concern at this point.
Quoting 1328. Astrometeor:



That's the same thing. Double eyewall = EWRC. It's how the cycle begins. Outer eyewall forms, encircles inner eye wall. Inner wall collapses, outer takes over. Hurricane force winds spread outwards and then storm can restrengthen from there.

Issue with Matthew is speed. How fast can he replace his eyewalls versus his forward motion? And how much weaker will he be during the process?


My thoughts are that Matthew doesn't have enough time to complete the ERC. He may be able to maintain intensity, but I don't think he will gain any intensity before Landfall. Let's hope that's the case anyway..
Quoting 1317. SecretStormNerd:


I was waiting for these comments to roll in...


I don't believe it to be true, but you have to admit the timing of both only fuels the conspiracy theories. And if the gov't did have a "secret weather weapon" that they were using to try to disrupt strong landfalling hurricane, isn't this exactly the way they would go about hiding it?

But secrets that big cannot be kept, so I believe its just what it is: a mechanical issue in the plane, and solar flares disrupting imagery (as they have been all during Matthew's trek across the Caribbean and Atlantic). Just coincidence.
1347. BayFog
Quoting 1318. mrjr101:

Miami area is due west of the center of the storm. Buh bye tropical storm conditions for Miami Dade County. Broward, you're next in line to wave the storm goodbye.

Remember, subtract the forward speed from the storm rotation speed at any given diameter. In this case, Miami can shave 12 mph off.

Unfortunately for the folks further up the coast, the opposite is true...ADD 12 mph. And you get storm surge.
Quoting 1301. lexslamman:

Looks like a right-hand turn is starting on that sat loop.


You have been wrong in this blog for the last day. The NHC, the GFS and the Euro all forecast this Cat4 hurricane to plow into the space coast and ride the coastline up to the Georgia border. The Euro has literally been out 15 minutes, so this is the most up-to-date info that exists.

The GFS not only makes landfall, but it goes inland and basically sits right on top of Jacksonville.

There is no "trending east" in any of the models. Stop lying.



Quoting 1341. StormJunkie:

Just talked to Presslord in Sav. He is saying that water is already up 1-2 foot in Sav. This is the piling that has me...freaked out to be quite honest. This scenario is damn near identical to Bolivar.




How badly will Savannah be hit with the surge?
Pressure is now 939 mb
Quoting 1329. IDTH:


tropicaltidbits.com


They don't have the UKMET though.
Finally recon on way

Time: 18:03:00Z
Coordinates: 27.567N 81.983W
Acft. Static Air Press: 664.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,574 m (11,726 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.6 mb (29.73 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 50° at 19 kts (From the NE at 21.9 mph)
Air Temp: 8.3°C (46.9°F)
Dew Pt: 4.1°C (39.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 kts (23.0 mph)
Quoting 1305. wpb:

not one recon from noaa or af in or enroute to the hurricane.
fleet has issue or planning is poor or both.


Gonzo is out for upper air, Miss Piggy on her way to Matthew.
Quoting 1219. Articuno:

This is one of the times I wish I still had TWC (my parents have FIOS) because it's honestly something else to watch TWC journalists reporting LIVE in these hurricanes...


I no longer have DirecTv so was happy to find TWC is broadcasting live on YouTube. Interesting background noise today...
1355. Crucian
Yea, well, you said it, I didn't. "HAARP - New World Order Mind Control and Weather Warfare Weapon" I'm hearing high frequency music even through the thick thick walls of my institution......

Quoting 1292. Nolehead:

i know everyone will think i'm crazy but hear me out, what if the govt is going to use HARRP to deflect the system? i mean the H hunter leaves with whatever problem it had, now satellites are down?? just could be a coincidence but nothing would surprise me anymore.
Quoting 1290. chrisdscane:



just a prediction hope im right but could be wrong


It's already made landfall more than once. It's approximately 107 miles from a CONUS landfall right now. Your "prediction" that it will not get more than 7 miles closer to the CONUS is ridiculous, wrong, and ignorant.
http://surfinggator.com/palm-beach/live-cams/live-c ams.html

Lots of people still on the beaches...
Quoting 1325. mrjr101:


Not even...


Obviously that person is NOT on the water anywhere in Broward County? Tides are already extremely high to the point where I went and looked at the storm surge expectations again because THAT is what scares me the most living east side of the intercoastal waterway and the west side of A1A ... We've had a few big gusts of rain and wind, windy conditions, a little flicker of the lights and then absolute stillness. NOT normal weather conditions.
Quoting 1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Particular Dangerous Situation

014L/MH/M/C4



I think what we are going to see (if imagery comes back so that we can, anyway) is NOT and EWRC, but rather Matthew expanding the diameter of the eye itself. If that does happen, will probably cap the intensity at a high end cat 4, but will allow the windfield to expand.
Quoting 1349. DurhamWeatherLover:



How badly will Savannah be hit with the surge?


They are saying 6-9 feet, but I think if he just barely clips the Space Coast then that could be raised to 10-12'. The problem is the "piling" of water. Low tide is never able to retreat as much as it normally would because the wind is constantly on shore. The next high tide comes and adds a little more to the piling. A little less goes out with the next low tide. The cycle continues and THEN you add an actual storm surge on top of that if the eyewall comes as close to Sav as several models are predicting.

We can certainly hope that he makes the turn to the NE and ENE early, but currently guidance is not suggesting that.
Okay I believe this plane is heading into the storm now



It turned back earlier IIRC - guess the issues it had were sorted out.
1362. IDTH
Quoting 1328. Astrometeor:



That's the same thing. Double eyewall = EWRC. It's how the cycle begins. Outer eyewall forms, encircles inner eye wall. Inner wall collapses, outer takes over. Hurricane force winds spread outwards and then storm can restrengthen from there.

Issue with Matthew is speed. How fast can he replace his eyewalls versus his forward motion? And how much weaker will he be during the process?

I appreciate the confirmation, I had to refresh my memory. Unfortunately that's what I was afraid of and normally this might actually be a sign of hope that it could weaken during the process which would be good. The thing is, I've noticed everytime it's gone through it, it has yet to lose intensity and rather is still able to maintain it's strength while widening it's wind field.

I wish we had good news but it looks like the only good news we'll hear is when we know that the storm has dissipated.
Quoting 1349. DurhamWeatherLover:



How badly will Savannah be hit with the surge?


If the models maintain the more westward track, nearer the coast, 24 hours on- it is going to be extremely bad. The islands might get 10+ feet.
1364. vital1
Quoting 931. dader:



Maybe people are just taking a last minute venture out before being cooped up in their homes with little interaction with the outside world for the next day or two?


I certainly hope so!
Winter haven (The place I evacuated to) is getting a strong band, might have gusts up to TS strength
1366. IDTH
I'm taking over for Pat while he's MIA

NOAA3 Mission #30 into MATTHEW
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 18:03 UTC Oct 06, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.57°N 81.98°W
Bearing: 135° at 160 kt
Altitude: 3574 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 20 kt at 50°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.6 mb






does look like a more pronounced northern component to the movement on long range radar out of miami. for how long who knows.
GUIDANCE ONLY
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRES 17Z RUN HR 8

Time: 18:13:00Z
Coordinates: 26.867N 81.600W
Acft. Static Air Press: 666.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,531 m (11,585 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.8 mb (29.68 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 53° at 21 kts (From the NE at 24.2 mph)
Air Temp: 7.9°C (46.2°F)
Dew Pt: 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 22 kts (25.3 mph)
1370. apm2084
Rain pelting melbourne right now
I have to wonder, if the government had this super secret hurricane killing machine, why in the heck would it be a secret? Why do all these loony toons think that the government is hiding all this great super secret technology for no logical reason at all?
Quoting 1330. TheInsomniac4:

What's with the GFS tracks showing looping back into the GOM. I've never seen that before. It's still a long way out, but that seems like an insane path to take. It could end up hitting some places twice if it does that!




For an insomniac, you have been asleep for a long time!
1373. ncstorm
15 inches of rain per the Euro for Wilmington..



The entire SE
12z ECMWF 24hr
1375. BayFog
Quoting 1343. FunnelVortex:



She's not going to be a threat to land though.

I wouldn't be so unequivocal about that right now in view of the possibility of interaction with Matthew looping back around. It seems like a low probability for now, but not enough evidence yet to rule it out.
Quoting 1336. smmcdavid:

Can anyone post a link or give me a news channel site that is streaming live updates? I don't have cable... Thanks in advance.


Weather Channel on YouTube
Link
12z ECMWF hr 96 (compared to 00z, loop is earlier and comes back closer to FL)
Quoting 1327. RichardBLong:

Radar still looks good.........



Looking very intense.... I believe if recon get in there before the inner eye starts to collapse, they could find category 5 winds and a pressure near 930mb. They'll get to the eye at its "tightest" before it starts collapsing. All the very low pressure/highest wind storms are like that usually (Wilma/Patricia etc).
Quoting 1363. SavannahStorm:



If the models maintain the more westward track, nearer the coast, 24 hours on- it is going to be extremely bad. The islands might get 10+ feet.


On top of 2-6' of water being piled in.
1380. IDTH
Ventrice thinks like us

img src=" ">
really, who cares if people are on the beach? we already know that millions of people on the east coast are staying. It's at least 10 hours before landfall, I'm sure they'll be perfectly fine making their 5, 10, or 15 mile drive back home before the hurricane *maybe* hits.
Quoting 1373. ncstorm:

15 inches of rain per the Euro for Wilmington..



The entire SE



can you show the winds?
Another preparation tip:
If you area is getting a direct hit, and you are not able to take your boat up a canal or river for protection, it is better to scuttle it than leave it at a dock. During Andrew, my relatives deliberately sunk several boats that had not been removed from the docks. After the storm was over, the boats were refloated out of the muck. The electrical and motor systems had to be replaced but the hulls and masts were intact. At the neighboring docks, the boats that were left at the moorings were smashed on tops of the pilings and were total losses.
Quoting 1379. StormJunkie:



On top of 2-6' of water being piled in.


We have had a noreaster for the past 3 days- I can confirm what press said. Tide levels are already running well above normal.
Quoting 1307. intampa:

Not sure how accurate because I didnt see it but was told that at the 12 noon news FOX 13 Tampa weather forecaster mentioned this also.


Fairly accurate if it takes the GFS track:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s/2016100612/gfs_mslp_uv850_14L_6.png
Quoting 1373. ncstorm:

15 inches of rain per the Euro for Wilmington..



The entire SE



Very bad.... What's worse is that the Euro is pointing the gun at the Bahamas/south florida again after the loop. Let's hope that doesn't occur.
If you are planning to evacuate, but haven't left yet... keep something in mind. Winds come in advance of a hurricane and water starts rising early, as much as 10-12 hours in advance. Ike was projected to make landfall about 6:00pm or so. People packed up all night, got maybe 3-4 hours sleep and planned to leave that morning about 6:00am - 7:00am time frame. Water started inundating the low areas near the bridge entrance ramps about 7:00am. With traffic back-ups... anyone who wasn't across the I-45 bridge from Galveston by 8:00am was basically told to turn around and go home. The water was already too deep at the low areas near bridge entrance. Same was true of the Bolivar Peninsula, where their bridge became impassable 10-hours before the storm made landfall.
Don't try timing the eye of the storm. This is not a game of catch. The effects show up hours and hours before the storm. If you haven't fully evacuated by at very least 5-hours before landfall... then you probably won't be able to. The major high bridges will be shut down due to winds, low areas will have flooded and police will be blocking roadways and restricting areas.
Don't get caught. Matthew will be making landfall around Orlando / Jacksonville Beach at roughly 6:00am to 8:00am. If you haven't evacuated by 10:00pm tonight at latest... chances are you won't be able to anymore. By some miracle, you may have until 12:00 midnight at extreme latest in that area. Otherwise, you are there for the duration.
NOAA/NOS/CO-OPS 8722670 Lake Worth Pier, FL
Quoting 1337. skycycle:

Death toll in Haiti is now up to at least 136, total toll from Matthew is 142 now - including 4 in Dominican Republic, 1 in Colombia, 1 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Prayers sent out and up. :-(

Quoting 1346. HighOnHurricanes:



I don't believe it to be true, but you have to admit the timing of both only fuels the conspiracy theories. And if the gov't did have a "secret weather weapon" that they were using to try to disrupt strong landfalling hurricane, isn't this exactly the way they would go about hiding it?

But secrets that big cannot be kept, so I believe its just what it is: a mechanical issue in the plane, and solar flares disrupting imagery (as they have been all during Matthew's trek across the Caribbean and Atlantic). Just coincidence.


They couldn't hide it. A weapon capable of producing enough energy to deflect a hurricane of this magnitude would turn the atmosphere in it's path into plasma and fry every piece of electronics equipment within 1000 miles that wasn't wrapped in a Faraday cage.

The nutters don't need any more encouragement. :P

They've had issues a couple of times with the recon planes already over the course of Matt's treks, and the satellite has dropped out a couple of times as well. No conspiracies are needed. Complex equipment will encounter problems without conspiracy theories.
1391. nash36
This is alarming-

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.
Quoting 1349. DurhamWeatherLover:



How badly will Savannah be hit with the surge?



.....got more 3rd floor beachfront condo friends there?
1394. IDTH

Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.

That's just crazy talk if they're being serious.
Quoting 1379. StormJunkie:



On top of 2-6' of water being piled in.


Sad thing is that it could be even worse if an EWRC occurs. Spread those hurricane winds out over a larger area to help push more water/waves around...
Even if a EWRC starts now, it's going to be a bit of a wash -- it won't strengthen, but the windfield will expand. That fetch over the open water is what's already piling water against the coastline and made visibly higher tides on the N FL coast where Cantore was this morning. The next 2-3 tide cycles in the Southeast are going to be pretty scary times if you live on a barrier island and didn't bother evacuating...
1398. BayFog
Update has max winds now at 140 mph. Close to Cat 5. Any location near the center is gonna be shellacked, to put it mildly. It can't be said too strongly...this will be a costly storm, in both human and dollar terms.
Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.


go away troll, no one, much less three people, are that stupid.
Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.


Now I know you are a troll, bye.
From the special public advisory on Nicole:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over
the nest day or so
, followed by slow weakening.


I sure hope the NHC doesn't lay an egg on this one
Seems like it's still right on its forecasted track.
1403. HiWay58
Quoting 1371. pipelines:

I have to wonder, if the government had this super secret hurricane killing machine, why in the heck would it be a secret? Why do all these loony toons think that the government is hiding all this great super secret technology for no logical reason at all?

because jet fuel can't melt steel beams! duh! /s
The satellite feeds are swamped - the satellites themselves are not down. Now you know what a denial of service attack does!
1405. IDTH
Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.

I call B.S
Eye looks to be larger than Charley's, on radar. 939mb for Matthew...Charley was 941
1407. JM2
Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.


Nobody is that stupid.
1408. banddfl
All of our schools in Sarasota county are currently scheduled to be open.
Quoting 1326. GatorWX:



It could be too they're opening them for shelter purposes for those coming from the East Coast. This is what was reported to be happening in Sarasota County.
1409. IDTH

For all you sick people in broward and Miami who for some strange reason want worse conditions and cannot be thankful that we are not the ones in the path of most harm..... The timing for our impacts is between 3pm and 3am so shut up all ready!! The mayor of broward said roads are closed as of 3pm
M - Bienvenido a Miami
Quoting 1399. pipelines:



go away troll, no one, much less three people, are that stupid.
Gee thanks for the help.He is from inland southern Mexico and doesnt know about Hurricanes
Can we take time for a little applause to NHC for the forecast track from Cuba so far? Credit where it's due. :)
They did a pretty good job.
Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.




Check your WU inbox.....sent you a msg
Am I nuts or does the radar and satellite loop look like more of a heading toward more southern FL, closer to North Miami/Hallendale area. It almost like a true NW heading. Hoping I'm wrong.
Quoting 1271. BayFog:




Can't wait to see how this looks when the Recon missions get there. Should be interesting to see the wind and pressures.
1417. ncstorm
Quoting 1382. Twinkster:



can you show the winds?


Gusts






I'll even get some good 50ish gusts if the Euro is right..
1419. GatorWX
Quoting 1408. banddfl:

All of our school in Sarasota county are currently scheduled to be open.


I was going off what my mom told me, so forgive me if that was incorrect. :/
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1402. TampaFLUSA:

Seems like it's still right on its forecasted track.



What track is that? The GFS, Euro and the NHC tracks all go over land.
1423. BayFog

Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole.
1424. IDTH
NEW BLOG, please be redirected.
.
According to NOAA's tidal information, already seeing rising waters along the coast and some coastal waterways.
Quoting 1422. shader98:



What track is that? The GFS, Euro and the NHC tracks all go over land.


It's the average track the NHC put out.
Bam suite is concerning. Euro and GFS move well inland compared to other models.
1429. Hugo5
One of two things appears to be happening, yes an eye wall replacement maybe occurring, but what is disturbing is the size of the possible new eye wall, its huge. If that does not turn out to be the new eye wall, then we could end up with a system with an eye wall within an eye wall, this does happen sometimes too, but it is rare.
Does anybody remember Mammothmiss from the Hermine blogs, I think he lives in Daytona.
Quoting 1415. rabbitrrun68:

Am I nuts or does the radar and satellite loop look like more of a heading toward more southern FL, closer to North Miami/Hallendale area. It almost like a true NW heading. Hoping I'm wrong.


You are wrong per the head honcho of the NHC who was just on our local news
Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.


I spoke with Darwin and he suggests you go with them.
Where is that ignor button, never mind people keep reposting so I get to see this stuff anyway.

Looks like the NHC has been right on the money on this system, very glad to see it especially with the two best models being in agreement for the most case.
Due North on Miami Radar
Quoting 1390. Xyrus2000:



They couldn't hide it. A weapon capable of producing enough energy to deflect a hurricane of this magnitude would turn the atmosphere in it's path into plasma and fry every piece of electronics equipment within 1000 miles that wasn't wrapped in a Faraday cage.

The nutters don't need any more encouragement. :P

They've had issues a couple of times with the recon planes already over the course of Matt's treks, and the satellite has dropped out a couple of times as well. No conspiracies are needed. Complex equipment will encounter problems without conspiracy theories.
Thank you for the 'voice of reason' Vis0! (oh wait, this is Xyrus?!)
1435. banddfl
No worries! I'm in south Sarasota county - all the counties north of us have cancelled school and opened some shelters though :) If we get enough rain I may keep my kid home still. I'm not looking to drive through lakes to get her to and from school! We've had more than enough rain!
Quoting 1419. GatorWX:



I was going off what my mom told me, so forgive me if that was incorrect. :/
Quoting 1402. TampaFLUSA:

Seems like it's still right on its forecasted track.



looks slightly right of forecast points. a wobble at this point is the difference between a slap and a haymaker
If by some chance you get caught and can't evacuate your East Coastal county... don't panic. Is there a hospital nearby with a concrete parking garage? Any good elevated concrete parking garage structure will do. I just happen to like the ones at hospitals best (they tend to have lots of backup generators, plus you can get regular updates from police and emergency workers). There is also a LOT of room to wander around, places to sit, sleep, etc... .

Get in thy car and get thee to a parking garage. Go up to at least the 3rd level, but get as high up as you can (not the top level). Park on the South or West side of a concrete wall or concrete columns so they block the wind from your vehicle. Concrete parking structures have reinforced concrete stairwells with heavy steel doors. Take shelter in the stairwell. If you brought your pet (dog, cat, parrot) leave it in your car until the storm really begins, then put it on a leash and bring it with you into the stairwell. They can't throw you out in a hurricane for bringing a dog at that point... so let them get upset and throw a tantrum. :>)
When the storm gets going, go back to your car and get your bag of snacks, bottled water, games, weather radio, flashlight, etc... and go sit back in the stairwell. If you are feeling peckish, bring a small cooler with ice, a blender and marguerita mix with good tequila and some glasses. Before power goes out, you can blend some good margueritas and enjoy the hurricane in safety and relative comfort. Your car will not flood, your pet will be safe and you will get some good views of the storm. If anything happens, you're already at the hospital. You get timely updates on conditions too.
Quoting 1416. NC1999Gator:



Can't wait to see how this looks when the Recon missions get there. Should be interesting to see the wind and pressures.


due north wobble in last 2 frames
Quoting 1422. shader98:



What track is that? The GFS, Euro and the NHC tracks all go over land.

NHC 11am does not.
1440. IDTH

Quoting 1434. JNFlori30A:

Thank you for the 'voice of reason' Vis0! (oh wait, this is Xyrus?!)

If man ever becomes capable of significantly controlling the weather... the extinction of the human race is almost assured.
Hurricane #Nicole Special advisory 10 issued. Nicole becomes a hurricane. http://go.usa.gov/W3H
1443. prioris
HiWay58 Quoted
"because jet fuel can't melt steel beams! duh! /s"

Finally someone who knows something ... what's created by nature and what's not is becoming very blurry
Quoting 1428. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Bam suite is concerning. Euro and GFS move well inland compared to other models.


Again, I am just a guy on a weather blog. But I am only seeing things that make me gravely concerned for the N Fl, Ga, and S Sc coastlines. Mathew may very well intend to hit Freeport and then ride the Gulf Stream right up to the Ga coast.
Quoting 1433. boandjoe:

Due North on Miami Radar


Might miss a land falling hit overall. Unfortunately the Bahamas weren't so lucky.
Horrible footage and news coming from Haiti. Be safe! Matthew is a beast.
Heading WAY right of fcst for now...just a jog?...stay tuned.......
Quoting 1433. boandjoe:

Due North on Miami Radar


Very strange.
Well, my friend talked to her neighbors in cocoa beach and they are all staying, so she is staying.

I realize the governor is shouting "leave now", but I wonder who and what else can be more concrete in the future to explain to these people what exactly they are riding out.

Someone posted here recently with concern about the seat turtle eggs along the east Florida coast. I checked on that and it turns out that most of the nests have already hatched this year.

Link
I can't seem to find it, but can someone post the newest storm surge maps for Mathew? Now calling for 7-11 feet N of the Space Coast through southern SC.

Quoting 1367. wcflbuck:

does look like a more pronounced northern component to the movement on long range radar out of miami. for how long who knows.

cimms guidance would suggest a more northerly direction for a storm of this strength. I don't believe the eye will come ashore in fl.. Anecdotal observations of some say that the storm will follow that tail going off to the ne.
Also it appears that shear is beginning to affect the northern most edge of the circulation.
Quoting 1371. pipelines:

I have to wonder, if the government had this super secret hurricane killing machine, why in the heck would it be a secret? Why do all these loony toons think that the government is hiding all this great super secret technology for no logical reason at all?


You do realize that some of us are sitting here in the middle of this and are concerned about our loved ones and our property (not to mention ourselves) - this is a WEATHER BLOG - no reason for this rhetoric
1454. HCW
Impressive gust already in parts of FL much more later



animated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzFl_UFOIuM
Looks like its curving due north now........
Is it me of is Matthew moving NNE now?
Extrapolation of Path of Matthew if there were no deviation from the current trajectory. Landfall would occur near Cape Canaveral if this path continues in a straight line (which we know doesn't happen).



Animated Radar Gif
Lightning strikes increasing in the eye wall!
Quoting 1456. ElConando:

Is it me of is Matthew moving NNE now?


hopefully a trend and not a wobble. but yes
Quoting 1373. ncstorm:

15 inches of rain per the Euro for Wilmington..



The entire SE



Welp, don't see how I'm getting to work next week.
I'm at Isle of Hope marina near Savannah....we are two hours past high tide and the water is still coming in.....
Quoting 1436. boandjoe:



looks slightly right of forecast points. a wobble at this point is the difference between a slap and a haymaker


Isn't land friction going to pull it in when it gets closer? It would be great if it didn't but I think I recall seeing this on past hurricanes, and I don't see that event in the projected path. I also wonder about the gulf stream causing some hot towers which may pull the core around a bit to, depending where they form. But yeah, I agree, there is certainly wobble to the East right now, and that is a GOOD thing.
Quoting 1461. presslord:

I'm at Isle of Hope marina near Savannah....we are two hours past high tide and the water is still coming in.....

Get to high ground?
Come to the new blog anyone still posting here.
Quoting 1462. liquidsquid:


Isn't land friction going to pull it in when it gets closer? It would be great if it didn't but I think I recall seeing this on past hurricanes, and I don't see that event in the projected path. I also wonder about the gulf stream causing some hot towers which may pull the core around a bit to, depending where they form. But yeah, I agree, there is certainly wobble to the East right now, and that is a GOOD thing.


Not good if that gives it more time over the Gulf stream for strengthening!
1466. Patrap


🌊🎑😯🌅🌎🌞
Tell them to make sure they get their last rights (or whatever religion they are) because if a storm can sink a huge freighter ship like El Fago (i may have the name wrong) then it will definitely sink his boat. I would say have them sharpie their SS# on their arms but most likely they will be lost at sea :( It amazes me the stupidty of people and their thinking "it isn't going to happen to me" Sending my prayers for your cousin

Quoting 1392. MeteorologistTV:

My cousin is taking his boat out off fort pierce tonight with two others.Says hes going Fishing.can one of you talk to him and convince him to stay.
Highest wind gust here in Lauderdale By the Sea is maybe 50 mph. Anyone know when the brunt of it comes for my area?
I know im gonna get blasted. But, the last 2 hours have been N or near north. extrapolated, it doesn't come within 75 miles of florida.. I hope that's the case.. I want to do some fishing this weekend!
Quoting 1407. JM2:



Nobody is that stupid.
"Here, hold my beer, and WATCH THIS!!!" (Darwin Award)
1471. jonelu
So far a lot of nothing here in West Palm Beach...alittle rain and gusty wind. I know its early but Matthew appears well north of the track.
Matthew looks very ragged and sheared this afternoon.
It would be cool to watch an entire EWRC on radar.
Just checked the satellite. It looks like Matthew has spit out his eye to the northwest while the bulk of the storm remains behind. WTH?!
First, I want to thank all of you trollers and bloggers for all of your help these past few harrowing days. I am calling it here and now...Central/West Broward County is officially done (for this week) with Matt. Here in Plantation we got ZERO wind and a couples sprinkles today. Maybe some stuff overnight....but nothing drastic. We (all in Monroe, Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties) are so thankful that Matt stayed east. That being said......my thoughts, prayers and wishes are to all those north of Palm Beach County. People...those in coastal regions .....PLEASE GET OUT NOW...DO NOT FOOL WITH THIS.....I will be trolling throughout the next few days and will be following Matt through the process as he is forecast to visit us again next week......I don't have to agree with or be a fan of his politics but please PLEASE listen to Gov. Scott....get out and get out NOW.

My fear is a geographical change in the FLA landscape and a death toll...please don't let your property get the best of you...get yourself and your animals and GET THE HELL OUT....the video from Juno Beach just scared the crap out of me...to know thats what we should have gotten here in the south and we were spared!!!
.
Did the other blog post comment section die? I haven't seen a new post in quite some time.
test
10/06/16 7:55 pm EST looks like the newer blog has locked up?