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Hurricane Matthew Reorganizing Over The Bahamas; Major Shift in Long-Range Track

By: Jeff Masters 3:40 PM GMT on October 05, 2016

Hurricane Matthew was a weakened Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds on Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, thanks to the disruptions to the storm caused by landfalls in Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday. However, the storm is re-organizing over the warm waters of The Bahamas, and poses a serious threat to The Bahamas and Southeast U.S. over the next three days. Matthew's top winds had rebounded slightly, to 120 mph, as of the 11 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Matthew was able to shrug off its initial landfall on the southwestern tip of Haiti near 7 am EDT Tuesday, with the hurricane’s Category 4 winds of 145 mph dropping by just 5 mph. A more protracted landfall over the eastern tip of Cuba on Tuesday evening, though, disrupted the storm’s eyewall, which suffered a partial collapse. As a result of this, plus the fact that a large part of the storm’s circulation has been over the high mountains of Cuba and Hispaniola over the past day, Matthew was looking considerably less impressive on satellite imagery on Wednesday morning. The hurricane’s heavy thunderstorms were much reduced in the northwest quadrant, and Matthew was smaller and had fewer low-level spiral bands.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Matthew as of 10:00 am EDT Wednesday, October 5, 2016. Matthew's eye had sharpened distinctly over the preceding few hours. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Two hurricane hunter aircraft were in Matthew early on Wednesday morning, and confirmed Matthew had weakened significantly; the top surface winds of the hurricane had slowed to 115 mph and the central pressure had risen to 964 mb. A rapid-scan 1-minute time resolution satellite loop of Matthew from NASA/MSFC late Wednesday morning showed that Matthew was steadily re-organizing, though. The hurricane has rebuilt its eyewall, spiral bands were increasing in intensity and areal coverage, and Matthew was growing larger. This is to be expected, as Matthew has favorable conditions for intensification: light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, very warm ocean waters of 29.5 - 30°C (85 - 86°F) and 70 - 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere (as analyzed by the SHIPS model.) In their most recent pass through the eye late Wednesday morning, the Hurricane Hunters found the pressure had dropped 2 mb, to 962 mb, and the winds had increased by 5 mph.


Figure 2. Hurricane Matthew as seen on Gran Piedra, Cuba radar at 8:20 am EDT October 5, 2016. A mostly complete eyewall had been rebuilt by this time. Image credit: INSMET.

Intensity forecast: Matthew will be big and bad again
Given the favorable conditions for intensification, and the fact that Matthew is now moving into a region with even warmer waters (though a lessening amount of total ocean heat content), I expect the storm will again be at Category 4 strength by Thursday morning. The near-record warm waters Matthew will be feeding from will allow the hurricane to greatly expand its size over the next two days, as will the fact that it will be steadily gaining latitude, allowing the hurricane to better leverage the Earth’s spin to gain more spin of its own. The unusual mass of convection to the east that persisted until it made landfall in Hispaniola has apparently been absorbed, and will also contribute to Matthew expanding in size. This is going to be a very large storm with widespread impacts by the time it approaches the Southeast U.S. on Thursday evening, and Matthew is likely to be a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane while it pounds the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida. Matthew may take an extended path over the core of the very warm Gulf Stream current on Friday, providing an extra boost in intensity.

On Friday night, when Matthew will be moving northwards nearly parallel to the coast and approaching South Carolina, high wind shear of 20+ knots is expected to attack the storm. High wind shear plus potential interaction with land will likely lead to a weakening of Matthew to Category 2 strength by Saturday, when the hurricane will make its closest approach to South Carolina and North Carolina. As Matthew makes its expected turn to the east on Sunday and moves parallel to the North Carolina coast, wind shear will rise even further, to 40+ knots, and we can expect Matthew to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane or tropical storm by Monday of next week.

Track forecast for Matthew: very bad for the Bahamas
Matthew will move northwest through The Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, with the dangerous right front quadrant with the highest winds likely to affect the most populous island in the archipelago, New Providence, on Thursday morning. Extreme winds are the main danger on New Providence, though a storm surge of up to ten feet is possible. Fortunately, the capital of Nassau is on the more protected north side of the island, which is less vulnerable to storm surge. Low tide in Nassau is at 5:22 am EDT Thursday, and high tide is at 11:46 am EDT. Tidal range between low tide and high tide is about two feet, so the timing of the high tide relative to a possible ten-foot storm surge can contribute up to a 20% increase in the observed storm tide (the height of the water above ground.) In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in The Bahamas to Great Exuma (78%), New Providence (74%), and Grand Bahama (64%).


Figure 3. This Maximum Water Depth storm surge image for The Bahamas shows the worst-case inundation scenario for a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds, as predicted using dozens of runs of NOAA's SLOSH model. For example, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation.

Major storm-surge potential for The Bahamas
No single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted everywhere in Figure 3 above, but Matthew’s maximum storm surge may reach levels portrayed in this image for some of these islands. The greatest surge danger for Exuma Island and Long Island will come on Wednesday evening shortly after Matthew passes. Large expanses of shallow water lie along the west coasts of these islands, and the counter-clockwise circulation of the storm will push water to the east and northeast into these shallow water, where they will be forced up onto land. New Providence (where the capital of Nassau is located) has its shallowest waters to the south, so their main storm surge risk will come as Matthew is approaching from the southeast. According to a Tuesday blog post by storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, “Many areas in this archipelago contain broad reefs that provide large pools of shallow water for hurricanes to displace and inflict storm surge damage. The impacts of these surges are often severe, sea water can overwash small islands, completely inundating them with salt. Such surges often destroy fresh water and food supplies, as saline soils can take years to lose high salt content. Of particular concern is the possibility that Matthew will track far enough east to produce a large storm surge on Crooked Island, Acklins Island and Long Cay. Hurricane Joaquin generated a devastating 15-ft (4.57-m) storm surge in this area just last October, taking advantage of a shallow reef that is open to the southwest. A second large storm surge in two years would have grave impacts for this region.” Note that the elevations of the surge heights on this map is not Mean Sea Level (MSL), but rather the vertical datum, NGVD 1929, developed by the National Geodetic Survey. See wunderground's storm surge pages for more info.

Track forecast for Matthew: Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings for Florida
The 00Z Wednesday runs of our top models for forecasting hurricane tracks—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—all show that Matthew will approach within 50 miles of, or make landfall on, the coast of Central Florida on Friday. The 06Z Wednesday run of the GFS model showed this, as well. At 11 am EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Warnings were up for much of the east coast of Florida, including the Orlando area, and NHC had issued a new experimental Storm Surge Warning for the coast of Florida from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia County line. A storm surge warning indicates there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 36 hours. NHC is advising that storm surge inundation of 3 - 5 feet could occur on Friday. Farther to the north of the warned area, extending to Fernandina Beach, a Storm Surge Watch is posted, meaning that there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours. The greater threat to Florida, though, may be wind damage. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in Florida to Ft. Pierce (47%), West Palm Beach (43%), and Cocoa Beach (40%).

Track forecast for Matthew: danger to North Carolina and New England lessens
Wednesday’s latest 00Z run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that Matthew would turn to the northeast and then east on Saturday, keeping the storm several hundred miles south of the coast of North Carolina. In this scenario, the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina might still be at risk of hurricane force winds, but the coast farther north—including New England and Canada—would not be. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC was giving the coast from Jacksonville, Florida to Charleston, South Carolina 10 - 16% chances of receiving hurricane force winds. Probabilities for the coast of North Carolina were less than 10%.


Figure 4. Screen shot of NHC’s interactive Storm Surge Probability product from 5 am EDT Wednesday, October 5, 2016, showing the probability of inundation in excess of 3’ above ground level from Matthew. The northern Florida coast to the coast of South Carolina is expected to have a greater than 50% chance of getting inundation in excess of three feet. The highest probabilities are along the Georgia coast, where hurricane impacts are fairly infrequent. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs created using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHC's forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size.

Long range forecast for Matthew: thrown for a loop
Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity. While a loop back towards Florida and The Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time. Long-range forecasts of wind shear are not very reliable, but this morning’s wind shear forecast from the 00Z run of the European model does show a low to moderate shear environment over the Bahamas and waters surrounding South Florida late next week, potentially supportive of a hurricane--if Matthew survives the high wind shear of 50+ knots expected to affect the storm early next week. The bottom line is that it currently appears that Matthew will not recurve out to sea early next week, and The Bahamas and Florida may have to deal with the storm again next week.


Figure 5. Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Wednesday, October 5, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Wednesday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Five out of six of these forecasts show Matthew barely missing landfall along the Southeast U.S. coast, and all of them show Matthew failing to recurve out to sea to the northeast. Disturbingly, two of the tracks show Matthew looping back to punish The Bahamas and crossing South Florida to enter the Gulf of Mexico. The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform better than other ensemble members at forecast times of five days and beyond. The black crosses along the Gulf Coast are the locations of oil wells, as this forecast tool was designed primarily for use by the oil and gas industry. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Links
Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.
Rapid-scan 7-minute time resolution loop of Matthew from NASA/MSFC
See our post from Monday morning on how Matthew--a rare northward-moving major hurricane in the Caribbean--fits into the hurricane histories of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba.
Great Exuma webcam

We’ll have a new post late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1482. Hurricanes101:



strong storms wobble as they organize


Let's keep watching for a trend of staying just east of Forecast points.
1502. pingon
Quoting 1452. RickWPB:

I hope everyone in or near Matthew's path is ready by the time it arrives starting Thursday. I live in West Palm Beach and have been getting my house and my 91 y.o. mother-in-law's house ready. We're ready as best as we can be. I've lived in S. Florida since 1959 so have seen a few storms. What I noticed when out in the yard doing preparations, I could feel a familiar, stuffy or stagnant hot air that I remember from other storm preps like Wilma, Jeanne, Frances, Donna, etc. I wonder if this is what the birds sense when they all of a sudden stop flying due to an approaching storm. Hmm!

Stay safe everyone and hunker down.

I was doing the same and was telling my wife exactly what you just said! I've been in S Fl since 1963 and had the same "feeling" every time a storms comes near.(btw one comes to really hate it, as many bad memories come rushing back)
1503. Ed22
Quoting 1473. Weatherfan1013:


Looks like a shrimp.
It like a shrimp with brain LoL, however a dangerous one; strengthening mode now Matthew.
Quoting 1357. washingaway:





Maybe it will just grow into the Red Spot of Jupiter, which was my early-season intuitive forecast.

https://youtu.be/E-Mda-CZgVw




Quoting 1486. SusieRN:

Seems peculiar that the LSU v. Florida football game will still be played at noon on Saturday in the Swamp.
Quoting 1486. SusieRN:

Seems peculiar that the LSU v. Florida football game will still be played at noon on Saturday in the Swamp.


Why not? The storm will be pretty far north by Sat. may not even be raining at usf by then.
1506. IDTH
Matthew and Nicole???

Quoting 1419. washingaway:

It has a brain!



Is this a rorschach test? I see a baby in the womb ... only I'm fearful about what is going to be born here in a few hours...
1508. sigh
Quoting 1439. HurriHistory:



I saw it as well. Latest satt. loops appears to show a movement slightly east of due North. It's not misleading information. It's an observation made by a few fellow bloggers, which people do on this blog on a constant basis. So chill out.
It is misleading because it's factually wrong. What definition of misleading are you using?

If people want to post their "observations" they should (a) not baldly state that something is happening just because it looks like it's happening; and (b) check the recon data before they post in the first place, because the recon data will let you know if your "observation" matches up with reality.


I didn't think there would be a worse run than the 12Z GFS, hugging the coastline. Now am seeing the 18Z GFS, same story but starts hugging the coastline further south.
Quoting 1501. Arnoldsw:



Let's keep watching for a trend of staying just east of Forecast points.
I don't think it is east of the forecast points. Right on target it seems to me
If you are evacuating for Hurricane Matthew, don't forget to TURN OFF YOUR WATER, GAS AND ELECTRICAL BREAKERS.
Make it the last thing on your check-off list before pulling out of the driveway. DO NOT leave with those services still turned on. Bad things happen that way.
Quoting 1497. Camerooski:

BTW all you idiots that keep saying that Matthew is moving NNE, well Dr. Norcross just explained that it is false hope and that you only see a super small part of the eye, the convection popping off makes it hard to see, and that recon says its moving NW toward S FL. I'll take his opinion over yours!


Another thing: I wish someone would clip out an img of Matthew at his widest and most intense and paste it on top of FL to scale for all the golf nuts in Tampa who think they'll be playing through Thurs-Sat with at most 40mph gusts. There is no reason to think Matthew won't recover to his biggest mass before landfall.
Quoting 1469. Abacosurf:

Just inland

Track looks similar to Cleo and David. The fact that we have those 2 storms as analogs, gives merit to this forecast. Talk to my professor at Embry-Riddle and he is high tailing out of there to stay with a friend in Atlanta. Lot of my friends are leaving now too, my former roommate is going to Tallahassee. I thought about going for a storm chase, but hell no am I going for a Category 4. I'll leave that to the experienced storm chasers. Too much at stake with high winds capable of bringing down large trees and power lines and then the predicted storm surge of 3-5 feet which would lead to coastal flooding would leave me stranded and with no one around to help. Much better safe than sorry.
1514. nash36
18z just offshore from Charleston.

Quoting 1496. TropicalNonsense2:

According to the Naval Research Laboratory, they are expecting the eyewall of Matthew to come within
19 miles of Cape Canaveral,Fl and thats well within the hurricane force windfield .  




That's according to the 8am position. Now it's probably 0-5 miles.
For those evacuating from the east coast of Florida, there are hotels along I-75 near Sarasota/ Bradenton. The University Park area is nice with a mall, groceries, gas, restaurants.
Both short range  BAMM models are also making an eyewall pass inland over Florida now as of 5pm.
The Bamm models are highly accurate 48-72 hours out assuming they have the latest upper
air data, which Im sure in this case they do.




Quoting 1463. WxLogic:

18Z GFS St. Lucie Landfall:


Yep! That's what I saw too. I'm ten miles inland from there. Glad someone with credentials confirmed to a non-crediantialed lurker like me.
1519. HrDelta
Quoting 1515. ecflweatherfan:



That's according to the 8am position. Now it's probably 0-5 miles.


Possibly negative miles now.
Quoting 1497. Camerooski:

BTW all you idiots that keep saying that Matthew is moving NNE, well Dr. Norcross just explained that it is false hope and that you only see a super small part of the eye, the convection popping off makes it hard to see, and that recon says its moving NW toward S FL. I'll take his opinion over yours!


When the convection wraps the whole way around, it will look like the center "falls" to the West.
Quoting 1498. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 5 minutes ago

18Z GFS has #Matthew making landfall in Port St. Lucie, Florida early Friday morning.



I guess that would mean Hutchinson Island, since the city of Port St. Lucie isn't actually on the coast.
1522. A4Guy
Quoting 1502. pingon:


I was doing the same and was telling my wife exactly what you just said! I've been in S Fl since 1963 and had the same "feeling" every time a storms comes near.(btw one comes to really hate it, as many bad memories come rushing back)


Agree! I noticed it last night and this morning. Was very still.
Even when Hermine went by (might have still been 99L at the time) - you could feel a heaviness to the air from all the tropical moisture.
1523. Patrap
Quoting 1504. OracleDeAtlantis:



Maybe it will just grow into the Red Spot of Jupiter, which was my early-season intuitive forecast.

https://youtu.be/E-Mda-CZgVw






The Jupiter GRS been trending west for 342 years now.....all but the nam show the trend continuing.

1524. HrDelta
Quoting 1507. HighOnHurricanes:



Is this a rorschach test? I see a baby in the womb ... only I'm fearful about what is going to be born here in a few hours...


I see a shrimp.

Tasty, tasty shrimp.
Quoting 1519. HrDelta:



Possibly negative miles now.


Measuring in feet at this point. Perhaps 19 feet from Cape Canaveral.
Quoting 1506. IDTH:

Matthew and Nicole???


Now with those two tracks, nicole and mat, we are looking at a possible foukapajamma effect if I ever saw one.
Quoting 1509. nrtiwlnvragn:

I didn't think there would be a worse run than the 12Z GFS, hugging the coastline. Now am seeing the 18Z GFS, same story but starts hugging the coastline further south.
can you post the link for the latest run please.
On the bright side, the east side of the storm is really weak right now, hurricane force winds do not extend far at all on that side.

At least for now.
Anyone have the current diameter of Matthew?
Please note that on almost all runs of every model, there is a bend westward just north of Abaco island.

The brain is what made Matthew try to avoid cuba!
It is getting wrapped around quickly. Should be complete in a few hours.
Then all systems are a go for rapid intensification:(
1531. Mel1978
Quoting 1498. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 5 minutes ago

18Z GFS has #Matthew making landfall in Port St. Lucie, Florida early Friday morning.





Not what I wanted to see considering I'm riding it out in Port St. Lucie, fl 😔
1532. 62901IL
Quoting 1511. RetainingH2O:

If you are evacuating for Hurricane Matthew, don't forget to TURN OFF YOUR WATER, GAS AND ELECTRICAL BREAKERS.
Make it the last thing on your check-off list before pulling out of the driveway. DO NOT leave with those services still turned on. Bad things happen that way.



What kind of bad things?
1534. evsnds
Models still aren't done trending. Looking for a more northerly component now before it goes OTS in whatever direction.
Quoting 1521. LesBonsTemps:


I guess that would mean Hutchinson Island, since the town of Port St. Lucie isn't actually on the coast.


And it doesn't take a meteorologist to see where the 18Z GFS makes landfall in Florida. All you have to do is look at the model.
And that will most likely change so no one should assume that will be the landfall location.
Quoting 1514. nash36:

18z just offshore from Charleston.


If you evacuate for Hurricane Matthew, it may be frustrating trying to find a hotel or motel that still has a vacancy. Happens to a LOT of people, one driving while the other is placing phone calls or looking up places on the internet.
Instead of the usual, try looking for listings for BED & BREAKFAST, or RESORT.
Most people don't think to look for those, so you can often find a convenient vacancy.
Matt Austin (Anchor) WKMG 6 Orlando... "Total Wines has a pallet of cases of water... Just in case you're picking anything else up." ROFL
Quoting 1456. canelane23N75W:

unfortunately my weather station is down but we are definitely getting hurricane force winds now!! feels like this will be a long night...I have the storm jogging a bit north every once and a while...does anyone think that George Town will get the eye or as I believe that it will go just to the south of Great Exuma??

the power has been of for a few hours and thankfully my darling wife got an inverter that I have hooked up to a battery so I can keep in touch for now!!


Looks like it is going to ride up the Exuma chain about 20 miles to your west, you guys be safe down there it will be our turn in the morning.
1540. IDTH
Matthew and Nicole could cause a fujiwhara effect

Quoting 1508. sigh:

It is misleading because it's factually wrong. What definition of misleading are you using?

If people want to post their "observations" they should (a) not baldly state that something is happening just because it looks like it's happening; and (b) check the recon data before they post in the first place, because the recon data will let you know if your "observation" matches up with reality.





This. Presenting your opinion as fact is misleading, especially when you have no expertise on the subject what so ever and you're directly contradicting the professionals that are keeping us safe.
Quoting 1514. nash36:

18z just offshore from Charleston.



Could of went all week without seeing that. :)
Quoting 1517. TropicalNonsense2:

Both short range  BAMM models are also make a eyewall pass over Florida now as of 5pm.
The Bamm models are highly accurate 48-72 hours out assuming they have the latest upper
air data, which Im sure in this case they do.







Where do you get the BAMs accuracy? For Matthew they are over 200 nm at 72 hours, NHC is half of that.
1544. Drakoen
18z GFS a bit farther south with landfall.
Quoting 1455. barbamz:


Current GFS.


Great! Lake O, gets a wave machine. Army core of Engineers are gonna love this track. I think it is at 15.4 right now?
Quoting 1481. RetainingH2O:

Tip: After the hurricane, you may not be able to make cell phone calls for a few days. Found that out after hurricane Ike. I don't know if they try to save band width for emergencies or what the deal was... but nobody in my area was able to call and talk by cell phone.
You MAY be able to text. We were able to send and receive text messages, but for some reason phone calls wouldn't go through. If calls don't work, don't assume that communications are down. Try texting instead.

Yep, text worked after Katrina too.
1547. WxLogic
1548. ncstorm
12z to 18z Run of the GFS now shows the turn farther north..

18z


12z
Quoting 1531. Mel1978:




Not what I wanted to see considering I'm riding it out in Port St. Lucie, fl 😔


Is is too late to change your mind?

Also, isn't that further South then the Melbourne area that the model tracks showed yesterday or earlier today?
*rolls eyes* *goes back to COD Meteorology to stare at more loops*
Quoting 1526. Clearwater1:

Now with those two tracks, nicole and mat, we are looking at a possible foukapajamma effect if I ever saw one. can you post the link for the latest run please.



Link
Ok. Am I going to wake up tomorrow in the obx and be in a panic or are we really ok?? Thoughts???
1553. ncstorm
McCrory giving a press conference now..

Link
This is why tropical storm watches were issued for the west coast of FL. 30-35 knots winds at about 10 meters. Also, the influence from the low level jet may help with those winds as the storm pulls away to the north and we get a stiff onshore flow.

1555. evsnds
Quoting 1552. obxlocal:

Ok. Am I going to wake up tomorrow in the obx and be in a panic or are we really ok?? Thoughts???


Just be prepared to leave if you need to. Depending on exactly where you're at, of course. If you're at the southern OBX, I would prepare right now and leave tomorrow. If you're closer to Corolla, you can probably wait it out for a bit and see what happens.
Quoting 1521. LesBonsTemps:


I guess that would mean Hutchinson Island, since the city of Port St. Lucie isn't actually on the coast.
That is one unlucky island
1558. IDTH
Uhmmmm

Deleted comment. Let me try this again.
1560. sigh
Quoting 1486. SusieRN:

Seems peculiar that the LSU v. Florida football game will still be played at noon on Saturday in the Swamp.
They haven't decided yet; they're considering moving the kickoff time to Saturday night. However, planning to play the game at any time on Saturday does indeed seem peculiar, if by "peculiar" you mean "insanely stupid."
Nags Head
Quoting 1555. evsnds:



Just be prepared to leave if you need to. Depending on exactly where you're at, of course. If you're at the southern OBX, I would prepare right now and leave tomorrow. If you're closer to Corolla, you can probably wait it out for a bit and see what happens.
Quoting 1554. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is why tropical storm watches were issued for the west coast of FL. 30-35 knots winds at about 10 meters. Also, the influence from the low level jet may help with those winds as the storm pulls away to the north and we get a stiff onshore flow.




exactly. I was looking at the streamline wind map and it had the West coast getting TS force winds for close to 18 hours
1563. guygee
Some of my recent work projects required coding the equations of geodesy (approximations, actually). THE NHC as some good tools; the best and most modern algorithms are here at the site of Charles Karney:
http://geographiclib.sourceforge.net/ Underneath are several on-line calculators, my favorite: http://geographiclib.sourceforge.net/scripts/geod -calc.html. If you want the distance and heading between two lat-long pairs, that is referred to as the Inverse Problem. Remember that west longitude is negative.
If you know of someone who lives on the Florida East Coast and they have pets... and YOU are in a relatively safe area... call and offer to house their pets for a while. You would be surprised how many people STAY during a hurricane simply because no shelter or hotel they found will take their dogs or cats.
That might make the decision to leave easier. You never know if they will need to be in a hotel for weeks or even months, especially if the home is damaged, so be aware that it may be for a while until they can get situated.
That simple offer might be the difference between someone finally deciding to evacuate vs. feeling they have to stay.
18z turn is closer to the shoreline.. Really could add lots of issues with rainfall totals up and down SEC.

Quoting 1513. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Track looks similar to Cleo and David. The fact that we have those 2 storms as analogs, gives merit to this forecast. Talk to my professor at Embry-Riddle and he is high tailing out of there to stay with a friend in Atlanta. Lot of my friends are leaving now too, my former roommate is going to Tallahassee. I thought about going for a storm chase, but hell no am I going for a Category 4. I'll leave that to the experienced storm chasers. Too much at stake with high winds capable of bringing down large trees and power lines and then the predicted storm surge of 3-5 feet which would lead to coastal flooding would leave me stranded and with no one around to help. Much better safe than sorry.

Yes, I was around for David in 1979. You are absolutely right almost an identical track scenario, only Matthew will be much stronger as it nears the coast of North/Central Florida. I was in Jax Beach when David made the turn and missed the beaches area by about 45 miles. We had major flooding all the way over to 9th street, it was crazy.


1567. 3N14Mon
Remember Wilma? Came onshore around Ft. Myers as a strong cat1. She was a giant size storm. Exited Ft. Lauderdale as a 2-3.

Actually Wilma exited the state near in central Martin County south of Stewart, FL as a Category 3 storm. The reason the Category was increased was due to its 30 mph forward speed as it left Florida. I was in the eye of all three storms on Florida's east coast from Sept 2004 until October 2005.
1568. barbamz
Quoting 1533. washingaway:

Incredible video

Horror! This was done by typhoon Chaba, landfalling in South Korea (Busan).

Watch: Typhoon Chaba hits Busan with Tsunami-like waves
Zeibiz Oct 5, 2016
Why does Before the storm by Queensryche keep running through my mind?
1570. ncstorm
TWC saying HH finding a weaker hurricane..
Quoting 1514. nash36:

18z just offshore from Charleston.




That run puts us in the weather for 30 hrs. Likely 20hrs of Tropical storm winds with possible hurricane winds at closest approach. And the rain total, my goodness.

1572. IDTH
This is, ahem well

1573. ncstorm
And there is a jog to the North..per TWC
I think this will be the storm of the century if it can pull it off. I think its getting more confident in a landfall somewhere in florida after that most models curve it back to florida might make a run for the gulf states as well its been a while since we have seen a weird track hitting multiple sstates
It appears as though if it comes back around as a loop it will be in a weaker state, we can only hope, as the damage and power outages will have already been done.

Quoting 1458. HrDelta:

I am seeing a lot of people coming out of the woodwork to bash the NHC. What the heck is going on?
Typical when there is a storm nearby. They think they are smarter than the experts. They have No clue what goes into a forecast, whcichbhas to be constantly updated while trying to keep millions of peopl safe.
Gfs 18z has Matt following the coast of FL all the way, coming off the Georgia coastline and pulling the loop ever tighter, back towards the Bahamas ...
Fujiwhara effect: NOW COMES INTO PLAY!
Quoting 1570. ncstorm:

TWC saying HH finding a weaker hurricane..


The pressure is about the same as this morning. They have to fly right through a perfect spot to find winds. I would rather wait for them to go through their mission before claiming that
990mb.gfs....piece.of.cake...
Quoting 1564. RetainingH2O:

If you know of someone who lives on the Florida East Coast and they have pets... and YOU are in a relatively safe area... call and offer to house their pets for a while. You would be surprised how many people STAY during a hurricane simply because no shelter or hotel they found will take their dogs or cats.
That might make the decision to leave easier. You never know if they will need to be in a hotel for weeks or even months, especially if the home is damaged, so be aware that it may be for a while until they can get situated.
That simple offer might be the difference between someone finally deciding to evacuate vs. feeling they have to stay.


FYI pet info: http://hotels.petswelcome.com/searchbyroute/
Quoting 1570. ncstorm:

TWC saying HH finding a weaker hurricane..
Pressure is stagnant so it isn't weakening necessarily, but there is no data to support anything above a 90kt category 2 cyclone at this time.
Quoting 1580. islander101010:

990mb.gfs....piece.of.cake...
Low Res.
1584. ncstorm
Quoting 1579. Hurricanes101:



The pressure is about the same as this morning. They have to fly right through a perfect spot to find winds. I would rather wait for them to go through their mission before claiming that


So while you wait, TWC is putting out that information..you're welcome to contact them if you feel some kind of way about it..
1585. HrDelta
Quoting 1540. IDTH:

Matthew and Nicole could cause a fujiwhara effect




Quoting 1545. koneofdeath:



Great! Lake O, gets a wave machine. Army core of Engineers are gonna love this track. I think it is at 15.4 right now?


At some point, the US should have heavily invested in maintaining and upgrading infrastructure. If that path hold, a huge number of innocent people who have been asking for maintenance and upgrade of the Lake Okeechobee dike system will end up hurt or worse because of the neglect.
ECMWF much further north, so is GFS but the latter is set on it's plagiary of the ECMWF who plagiarized the UKMET. I don't know what to believe anymore. NHC might change along with the times, who knows.

Quoting 1569. forecaster1:

Why does Before the storm by Queensryche keep running through my mind?


Because you're old?
Bryan Norcross is saying Matthew is weaker and is struggling with its eye wall.
1588. will45
that is not a loop on the 18Z it has him moving backwards how weird
Quoting 1584. ncstorm:



So while you wait, TWC is putting out that information..you're welcome to contact them if you feel some kind of way about it..


Wow way to be snarky.
Quoting 1579. Hurricanes101:



The pressure is about the same as this morning. They have to fly right through a perfect spot to find winds. I would rather wait for them to go through their mission before claiming that
It's pretty obvious that Cuba did it's number on Matthew. HH already flew through the NE quad and found max 89kt winds. It's a pretty safe bet at the moment that there aren't any 105kt winds hiding out in there somewhere as the NHC is currently reporting.
Quoting 1585. HrDelta:





At some point, the US should have heavily invested in maintaining and upgrading infrastructure. If that path hold, a huge number of innocent people who have been asking for maintenance and upgrade of the Lake Okeechobee dike system will end up hurt or worse because of the neglect.
when you live on a drained swamp, that's your problem. I will not feel bad when Back Bay is flooded, or GE has to take a loss when its South Boston mud flat HQ gets flooded out.
1592. Mel1978
Quoting 1549. HighOnHurricanes:



Is is too late to change your mind?

Also, isn't that further South then the Melbourne area that the model tracks showed yesterday or earlier today?


Pretty much, I've tried finding hotels, but everything is booked. Yes, Port St. Lucie is south of Melbourne, it is very close to where Frances and jeanna came through back in 2004.
Quoting 1576. TallyMike:


Typical when there is a storm nearby. They think they are smarter than the experts. They have No clue what goes into a forecast, whcichbhas to be constantly updated while trying to keep millions of peopl safe.


The good ol' Dunning-Kruger effect. People vastly overestimate their own competencies. They don't know enough to know how much they don't know.
1594. IDTH
Look at all that High pressure and Matthew and Nicole go their separate ways.

Quoting 1584. ncstorm:



So while you wait, TWC is putting out that information..you're welcome to contact them if you feel some kind of way about it..


Ring ring...Hi this is the internet, we have news on the hurricane, yes, I'll hold.
Quoting 1543. nrtiwlnvragn:



Where do you get the BAMs accuracy? For Matthew they are over 200 nm at 72 hours, NHC is half of that.


The Bamm models are very accurate, though only in the short term they do NOT forecast longterm well at all, so they are generally not looked at as much. Right now the NHC is putting alot of stock in the HWRF with their offiCIAl
forecast.  Possibly too much, when other reliatively reliable models are showing landfall as far inland over central florida as 45-50 miles. The NHC has always outperformed most models with their forecasts though so I trust they will this time as well. I just think the official forecast may shift westward one more time before it's all said and done.
Quoting 1590. MiamiHurricanes09:

It's pretty obvious that Cuba did it's number on Matthew. HH already flew theough the NE quad and found max 89kt winds. It's a pretty safe bet at the moment that there aren't any 105kt+ winds hiding out in there somewhere as the NHC is currently reporting.


We will see, Matthew looks to be reorganizing so it could only be temporary anyway
1598. ncstorm
Quoting 1589. Hurricanes101:



Wow way to be snarky.


LOL..you do it all the time though..I was just letting you know who to direct your complaint to..no ill intentions from me..
My forecast for 33169 shows that hurricane conditions are possible in my area. They have extended the graph to 100 mph. Most likely, Miami-Dade will see a hurricane warning before 11 PM or 5 AM. Weather.gov says that I'll get gusts of 65 mph, which is strong. I've been in worse in thunderstorms and in Hurricane Wilma and Katrina when they impacted Miami in 33193. So, what's causing the track to shift to the Southwest to include FT Lauderdale and Northeastern Miami-Dade. If this storm shifts to Miami-Dade, a category 4 cyclone would likely destroy everything in its path.
For those of you who are completely prepared. When every last important thing is done... Mow your lawn. Could be a while before it is dry enough. Not to mention all the debris on it.
Quoting 1596. TropicalNonsense2:





Data does not support your accuracy statement.
just as ive posted for yrs cape canaveral never has had so far anyway a major hurricane making landfall here in this part of central fl. prove me wrong! but lots of ones and twos. good luck all
... second landfall in S FL!
Link
Quoting 1598. ncstorm:



LOL..you do it all the time though..I was just letting you know who to direct your complaint to..no ill intentions from me..


nah I really don't, but ok lol

I was not complaining about anything, just wanting recon to do their mission before we saying Matthew is weakening. Either way, weakening should only be temporary that it looks like he is reorganizing.
Quoting 1597. Hurricanes101:



We will see, Matthew looks to be reorganizing so it could only be temporary anyway
Yeah I agree, conditions are primed for intensification; I could definitely see it intensifying to category 4 strength by the time it approaches Florida, but at the moment it doesn't appear to be taking advantage of the favorable atmospheric conditions. It does appear to be struggling to develop the well-defined eyewall it had prior to land interaction.
Quoting 1590. MiamiHurricanes09:

It's pretty obvious that Cuba did it's number on Matthew. HH already flew through the NE quad and found max 89kt winds. It's a pretty safe bet at the moment that there aren't any 105kt winds hiding out in there somewhere as the NHC is currently reporting.
RI is still possible, but it's going to start from a lower intensity point than was originally thought. Might be a major by the time it hits Florida's latitudes.
Matthew still has 36 hours over water any weakining to a Cat 2 would be good now but it probably will not last.
1608. HrDelta
Quoting 1597. Hurricanes101:



We will see, Matthew looks to be reorganizing so it could only be temporary anyway


After the Weather Channel's performance yesterday, I am not really trusting them.

I will trust the NHC.
Matthew's track forecast is not without precedent. Obviously much closer to the coast in the approach before looping.
Are you guys paying attention to the IR? Completely wrapped around the core now the Intense convection and it looks like anther round is firing off....

Getting a really bad feeling....
After looking at the official 5:00 and the latest GFS I prefer the official NHC plot. But then again I'm selfish and live in Melbourne :) Shuttered up, gassed up, generator at the ready. So now the wait and watch begins. Best luck to all along Matthews path ...
Quoting 1605. MiamiHurricanes09:

Yeah I agree, conditions are primed for intensification; I could definitely see it intensifying to category 4 strength by the time it approaches Florida, but at the moment it doesn't appear to be taking advantage of the favorable atmospheric conditions. It does appear to be struggling to develop the well-defined eyewall it had prior to land interaction.


Yea he has really good conditions, but sometimes storms just do not take advantage of them. Matthew has been a pretty amazing storm, so I will cut him some slack if he chooses not to reintensify :P
Quoting 1603. EmsiNasklug:

... second landfall in S FL!
Link


That is the last thing we need -- please do not wishcast this....
1614. ncstorm
Quoting 1604. Hurricanes101:



nah I really don't, but ok lol

I was not complaining about anything, just wanting recon to do their mission before we saying Matthew is weakening. Either way, weakening should only be temporary that it looks like he is reorganizing.


ok..I was only repeating TWC..didn't say anything about future state of Matthew..

I just thought that would be good news for those in the Bahamas to hear..
1615. HrDelta
Quoting 1593. nothingtoofancy:



The good ol' Dunning-Kruger effect. People vastly overestimate their own competencies. They don't know enough to know how much they don't know.


Yeah, I am noticing a few on here making massive, grand pronouncements based on delusions of adequacy.
Wow... it looks like Matthew is wrapping up in time to take advantage of some very potent water he will move over tonight.
1617. Wi11iAm
Saint Lucie nuclear power plant? ruh roh anyone know what they're built to withstand?
Quoting 1463. WxLogic:

18Z GFS St. Lucie Landfall:


looking nicer now.
I've been lurking here since 2008 and I've finally decided to participate in the discussions. Anyway, I've noticed that one of the reasons why the models had Matthew moving out to the north so quickly is because A. the trough was a lot more amplified, and B. they didn't develop Nicole at all. I now think that they've gone to the other extreme in regards to Nicole. I am entirely unsure of what will happen with the trough, but I think that the Fujiwhara effect depicted by the GFS is not very likely. I'm quite sure that Matthew with his much larger size would shear small Nicole to death, or maybe absorb her before they interact in that way. I think that in the end, Matthew would move up the East Coast to about NC, and then make a eastward turn caused by some weakness left in the high due to the trough and the remnants of Nicole. Does this sound plausible to any of you?
1620. IKE
I don't see an eye on Matthew right now.
1621. Michfan
Nice hot towers just before sunset.



Did models get any upper air data for the latest runs? If not the overnight runs and early mornings.
Quoting 1591. Methurricanes:

when you live on a drained swamp, that's your problem. I will not feel bad...

100% agreement... "caveat emptor"

1624. KFERR1
Another big miss for Southern New England (maybe next time, 25 years later). My gut told me this was going to happen. Hope everyone in FL is prepared!!!
1625. Prouss
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The ECMWF 7-day forecast from one week ago for Hurricane #Matthew verified almost perfectly in terms of both position and intensity.
Quoting 1543. nrtiwlnvragn:



Where do you get the BAMs accuracy? For Matthew they are over 200 nm at 72 hours, NHC is half of that.
Flip it over, and it looks like a big question mark...appropriate
Quoting 1622. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Did models get any upper air data for the latest runs? If not the overnight runs and early mornings.


There 40 dropsondes, don't know how many were around Matthew and how many were upper air.
Also many east coast balloons.

Also Gonzo mission for this afternoon/evening was aborted.


Quoting 1620. IKE:

I don't see an eye on Matthew right now.


It's tucked under the dense canopy of clouds. Should clear out later, as Matthew begins to pull himself together more. Has made great strides so far after leaving Cuba.
Quoting 1574. James1981cane:

I think this will be the storm of the century if it can pull it off. I think its getting more confident in a landfall somewhere in florida after that most models curve it back to florida might make a run for the gulf states as well its been a while since we have seen a weird track hitting multiple sstates

Reguardless of track, it will not likely top Andrew. but if it were to follow the NAVGEM model perfectly, it would likely surpass Katrina in Damages for certain because it would cover the entire state of Florida practically .


The latest GFS track (36 hrs out)


  

Polk county has closed schools for the rest of the week. The primary reasoning for closing schools Thursday is to make them available to shelter evacuees from coastal areas. Spook Hill elementary in Lake Wales is a straight shot west on SR60 from Vero Beach. Ridge Community High School in Davenport is also available. Additional schools will be made available as the need arises. Polk is 65-70 miles inland from the coast. If you need to evacuate and can't find a place to stay Polk schools will be available to you.
Quoting 1567. 3N14Mon:

Remember Wilma? Came onshore around Ft. Myers as a strong cat1. She was a giant size storm. Exited Ft. Lauderdale as a 2-3.

Actually Wilma exited the state near in central Martin County south of Stewart, FL as a Category 3 storm. The reason the Category was increased was due to its 30 mph forward speed as it left Florida. I was in the eye of all three storms on Florida's east coast from Sept 2004 until October 2005.

Quoting 1531. Mel1978:




Not what I wanted to see considering I'm riding it out in Port St. Lucie, fl 😔

45 miles south! Good luck!
Quoting 1627. Bigwinds:

Flip it over, and it looks like a big question mark...appropriate


I have no clue what you are saying. You must mean the spaghetti graphic.
1634. Wrass
How do I post a picture.
1635. Patrap
Very interesting to see what the next few recon passes through the core yield! Seems to have wrapped a band right around the eye in the last 20 mins with hot towers boiling through the CDO as the head of the band wrapped in.
1637. Sangria
Quoting 1554. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is why tropical storm watches were issued for the west coast of FL. 30-35 knots winds at about 10 meters. Also, the influence from the low level jet may help with those winds as the storm pulls away to the north and we get a stiff onshore flow.




I think the questions and confusion was because the TS Watch did not include the entire area initially. It only included a very narrow sliver riding up along the coast. This is what was posted by Ruskin NWS before it was changed.

1638. IDTH
1639. Mel1978
Quoting 1617. Wi11iAm:

Saint Lucie nuclear power plant? ruh roh anyone know what they're built to withstand?



It withheld during Frances and Jeanne.
1640. WxLogic
Now that's what I call a Hot Tower:

1641. WBNC
Quoting 1619. jrpianobm:

I've been lurking here since 2008 and I've finally decided to participate in the discussions. Anyway, I've noticed that one of the reasons why the models had Matthew moving out to the north so quickly is because A. the trough was a lot more amplified, and B. they didn't develop Nicole at all. I now think that they've gone to the other extreme in regards to Nicole. I am entirely unsure of what will happen with the trough, but I think that the Fujiwhara effect depicted by the GFS is not very likely. I'm quite sure that Matthew with his much larger size would shear small Nicole to death, or maybe absorb her before they interact in that way. I think that in the end, Matthew would move up the East Coast to about NC, and then make a eastward turn caused by some weakness left in the high due to the trough and the remnants of Nicole. Does this sound plausible to any of you?


Long time lurker myself and exactly what I've been thinking. I think we will see another long term track change by morning.
1642. Patrap
Another center pass.





1643. IKE
Quoting 1640. WxLogic:

Now that's what I call a Hot Tower:



I see the eye on that frame


Link

Recon radar
Quoting 1564. RetainingH2O:

If you know of someone who lives on the Florida East Coast and they have pets... and YOU are in a relatively safe area... call and offer to house their pets for a while. You would be surprised how many people STAY during a hurricane simply because no shelter or hotel they found will take their dogs or cats.
That might make the decision to leave easier. You never know if they will need to be in a hotel for weeks or even months, especially if the home is damaged, so be aware that it may be for a while until they can get situated.
That simple offer might be the difference between someone finally deciding to evacuate vs. feeling they have to stay.

On that note, contact the local EMS/FD and see if you can help care for their pets. They are going to be stuck at work for a LONG time after landfall. We did that during Rita and also washed clothes, got toiletries, sun showers, tents, food, and many other necessities for the first responders. It was much needed and appreciated.
Wish I could see radar of Matt right now... I'd like a clearer pic of what's going on with his eye wall.
1647. Patrap
1648. WxLogic
Quoting 1643. IKE:


I see the eye on that frame


Taking care of business before clearing out.
1649. IDTH

Quoting 1646. muddertracker:

Wish I could see radar of Matt right now... I'd like a clearer pic of what's going on with his eye wall.


Recon Radar
1651. HrDelta
Quoting 1642. Patrap:

Another center pass.








Gee, I think I see something that might support the theory of Matthew being a Category 3.

Quoting 1601. nrtiwlnvragn:



Data does not support your accuracy statement.

Trust me short term, reguarding a landfalling system it does. I have been involved in Hurricane forecasting for 37 years.
The bamm models typically forecast major storms very well for the short term within 48 hours, after that you throw them
out and look at the ECMWF lol.


Quoting 1646. muddertracker:

Wish I could see radar of Matt right now... I'd like a clearer pic of what's going on with his eye wall.


Click on link in post 1644
1655. Patrap
Evening all. The most recently updated position of Matthew [5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5; Location: 22.5°N 75.7°W] puts it near Ragged Island, which is at 22°13′N 75°44′W.


Observers there say they are experiencing 120 mph gusts. I don't know which forecast points Matthew is NNE of, but I certainly expected the eye to pass near or over Ragged Island after I scrutinized yesterday's track. Seems to me [unfortunately] that the storm is quite close to the forecast track.

I'm expecting, looking at the latest, that the eye will pass over or just to the west of New Providence. I hate to put the curse on Andros, but it would be better for Nassau if the eye shifted west enough to keep us out of the eyewall .... but given the incredible accuracy of track the last 2 days, I'm not expecting that.

Currently here it is overcast and calm ... with light rain, intermittently heavier. I hope the power stays on at least until 11 so I can see the latest update.... It's hard right now, with everything so quiet, to imagine the difference a day makes.... 24 little hours ....
Should start to see the pressure drop. Would be shocked if stayed level.
1658. BayFog

Hot towers overshooting near the center, usually a sign of intensification.
Quoting 1634. Wrass:

How do I post a picture.

You copy the link of the picture.
You click on the icon underneath the post that looks like a picture.
You paste the link.
Click enter/done.
If description is needed, put it below.
Quoting 1652. TropicalNonsense2:






Why are they the lowest lines in this graphic?





Quoting 1650. nrtiwlnvragn:



Recon Radar


ahhh..now I get it...thanks!
1662. IDTH
1663. mrjr101
Quoting 1571. StormJunkie:



That run puts us in the weather for 30 hrs. Likely 20hrs of Tropical storm winds with possible hurricane winds at closest approach. And the rain total, my goodness.



Guys, a whooping 1.5" of rain for Miami, FL. I had 1.23" of rain last weekend and I had to go to work.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1666. HrDelta
Quoting 1639. Mel1978:




It withheld during Frances and Jeanne.


I wouldn't worry. Whatever faults of the US Regulatory system elsewhere, we are better than Japan and the former Soviet Union on Nuclear Safety.

Hell, we warned Japan about issues with Fukushima years before the Meltdowns in 2011.
Looking good Matthew.
1668. Ed22
Quoting 1658. BayFog:


Hot towers overshooting near the center, usually a sign of intensification.
sign of things to come from Matthew tonight through to tomorrow.
1669. IDTH
I'm going to go ahead and make this claim (does not mean it'll happen but it makes sense to me), It would not surprise me if the NHC stays with the current intensity and doesn't lower the intensity. THE reason I say this is because if people knew it was weaker they might stay but they know this storm still has about 36 hours or so before going over land and could very well strengthen again.

Again, do not be surprised if the NHC decides to stay with the current intensity.
Quoting 1646. muddertracker:

Wish I could see radar of Matt right now... I'd like a clearer pic of what's going on with his eye wall.

I don't know if this helps but this is the mimic from Cuba onwards.
Quoting 1667. hurricanehunter27:

Looking good Matthew.



BAD, Looking BAD!!!
1673. Dakster
Looking at some web cams in the Bahamas. At least it appears the area has been evacuated. (of course there are not web cams everywhere).

Just watched a video out of Cuba. Lots of damage.
Another mimic. . .

Mandatory evacs for Palm Beach County. Tolls suspended throughout the state. FPL has 7,000 workers coming from out of state. This is just crazy. I have been through many hurricanes, but Matthew scares the hell out of me. I live on the border of West Palm and Lake Worth for a reference point.

Well.. If the storm behaves like it has.. It will handle shear very well (not good long term).. IMO- it didn't handle what little land interaction it had well. With any luck, The islands and any rub on the peninsula have more of an effect than one would think..., and it certainly has been all over the place. Don't be surprised if it does something else weird.. Like OTS.. Don't count on that either..
1677. IDTH
NEW BLOG, everyone out!!!
WOW! Look at that hot tower.
Visible Satellite
Quoting 1668. Ed22:

sign of things to come from Matthew tonight through to tomorrow.

Scary times ahead for the Bahamas and Florida.
Quoting 1594. IDTH:

Look at all that High pressure and Matthew and Nicole go their separate ways.




Fujisawa, then a dreadful union, perhaps?
Per my daughter, internet reports of Cantore being in Melbourne, 3 people in Juno Beach (near WPB), 2 women in Daytona, and Abrams and Goodloe in Jacksonville. Don't know how accurate these reports are, but that's what I am hearing here in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Are under a mandatory evacuation of our barrier island as of 6am Thursday morning, thinking of only going over the intracoastal a few miles to my daughter's fiance's house that is not under a evac order. Hoping that will be enough, otherwise have a room reserved in Augusta, Georgia, and a house in Asheville, NC as backups.
Quoting 1660. nrtiwlnvragn:



Why are they the lowest lines in this graphic?






the majority of those models are not forecasting tools available to the public. They are used by the NHC, which
is why their forecasts are usually more accurate than any single model. You are obviously missing my point
that none of the major models are that inaccurate.

You have some models actually showing a landfall 50 miles inland in Florida right now. I would expect atleast one
more shift of the official forecast.  Also the NHC forecasts are put out sometimes 3-6 hrs apart, the models are
not always run that close together, for instance some only run a couple of times a day.  The whole thing becomes
an illusion of sorts when the NHC can change their forecast track anytime every 3-5 hrs.

This is why they consistently outperform the models in my opinon. Of course that is just my opinion, but Im not
just some troll wishcaster either.
1684. mfcmom
News just went out to evacuate coastal West Palm Beach.......
Fom prior blog...
1520. HighOnHurricanes
9:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2016

When the convection wraps the whole way around, it will look like the center "falls" to the West.



Told ya! Looks like Matthew has been undergoing some restructuring of the core even while the CDO has been flaring up nicely. Once that process finishes (and it may have), strengethening will come quickly.
The above image (post 1688) will give you an idea of just how close the forecast track of Matthew is to the Florida coastline.

IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL FLORIDA - Bookmark this page and revist it in 24-30hrs and the picture will be very interesting.

The eye should be coming up on the radar fence in about 24-28 hours.







Quoting 1467. listenerVT:



Classic: the story of you two meeting at the store, while folks are busy stocking up for a 'cane.
Awesome.


So curious -- how did you know? Pictures, ID on car,, WU shirt?
Quoting 1684. mfcmom:

News just went out to evacuate coastal West Palm Beach.......

Source?
My husband I and are assuring that people have their shutters up and they are safe. Please, take this this seriously. We are 40 miles away from Port St. Lucie.
Quoting 1682. pvbeachbum:

Per my daughter, internet reports of Cantore being in Melbourne, 3 people in Juno Beach (near WPB), 2 women in Daytona, and Abrams and Goodloe in Jacksonville. Don't know how accurate these reports are, but that's what I am hearing here in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Are under a mandatory evacuation of our barrier island as of 6am Thursday morning, thinking of only going over the intracoastal a few miles to my daughter's fiance's house that is not under a evac order. Hoping that will be enough, otherwise have a room reserved in Augusta, Georgia, and a house in Asheville, NC as backups.


Look at Stephanie abrams twitter feed. She has tweeted the graphic of where they are
Quoting 1683. TropicalNonsense2:

the majority of those models are not forecasting tools available to the public. They are used by the NHC, which
is why their forecasts are usually more accurate than any single model. You are obviously missing my point
that none of the major models are that inaccurate.

You have some models actually showing a landfall 50 miles inland in Florida right now. I would expect atleast one
more shift of the official forecast.  Also the NHC forecasts are put out sometimes 3-6 hrs apart, the models are
not always run that close together, for instance some only run a couple of times a day.  The whole thing becomes
an illusion of sorts when the NHC can change their forecast track anytime every 3-5 hrs.

This is why they consistently outperform the models in my opinon. Of course that is just my opinion, but Im not
just some troll wishcaster either.

TVCA & EMXI are consensus models?
The latest radar from Camaguey shows the verge of a rapidly strengthening eye wall, in my opinion.

Quoting 1656. BahaHurican:

Evening all. The most recently updated position of Matthew [5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5; Location: 22.5°N 75.7°W] puts it near Ragged Island, which is at 22°13′N 75°44′W.


Observers there say they are experiencing 120 mph gusts. I don't know which forecast points Matthew is NNE of, but I certainly expected the eye to pass near or over Ragged Island after I scrutinized yesterday's track. Seems to me [unfortunately] that the storm is quite close to the forecast track.

I'm expecting, looking at the latest, that the eye will pass over or just to the west of New Providence. I hate to put the curse on Andros, but it would be better for Nassau if the eye shifted west enough to keep us out of the eyewall .... but given the incredible accuracy of track the last 2 days, I'm not expecting that.

Currently here it is overcast and calm ... with light rain, intermittently heavier. I hope the power stays on at least until 11 so I can see the latest update.... It's hard right now, with everything so quiet, to imagine the difference a day makes.... 24 little hours ....


Stay safe Baha...looks like we will dodge the worst of it and every mile west helps right now, won't be good for Andros but hopefully it holds to the forecast and won't be as catastrophic as it could have been for New Providence.
I am new to the weather "hobby" and trying to learn as much as I can. I am from the West Coast (USA) but I now reside in N. Carolina, so Matthew has been a "quick study" for me this week since it is bearing down on us and I have never been in a Hurricane.

My question is, how do the forecast tracking models gather their information to predict the path of a Hurricane? More specific, how did the model(s) make such a drastic change overnight last night to show such a dramatic "eastern shift" off the North Carolina coast from Tuesday (10/4) to Wednesday (10/5)? Thanks in advance for your help!
I think Levi is off with the timetable... i don't see it hitting near Florida within 24 hours... More like 48, and I see it more towards West Palm Beach.
Quoting 1675. GeoffreyWPB:

Mandatory evacs for Palm Beach County. Tolls suspended throughout the state. FPL has 7,000 workers coming from out of state. This is just crazy. I have been through many hurricanes, but Matthew scares the hell out of me. I live on the border of West Palm and Lake Worth for a reference point.




My father is in Delray on the intracoastal... Any word on that area
1698. centex
I think we can see the high pushing it west with overall view, forecast looks on track. Praying something keeps it from strenghthing.
1699. centex
Quoting 1696. jonnydanks:

I think Levi is off with the timetable... i don't see it hitting near Florida within 24 hours... More like 48, and I see it more towards West Palm Beach.
Is he suggesting south FL? Only way that fast.
Quoting 1690. SecretStormNerd:

My husband I and are assuring that people have their shutters up and they are safe. Please, take this this seriously. We are 40 miles away from Port St. Lucie.


New member but longtime reader here ... Live in Port St Lucie. Two story house with frame upstairs. Overlook golf course so no protection. Safe to stay in? Second question ... Newer screen enclosure they say is rated for Cat 4. Would you guys still cut out some screen panels or risk that it is indeed rated for a cat 4?

Thanks everyone for your posts. Have enjoyed them for some time.

Hurricane chaser Josh morgerman in Nassau and starting to feel Matthew even though still way outside the core:

12:45 am. #MATTHEW's gettin' that #hurricane whistle. To normal folks it's creepy; to me it's gorgeous. 1004 mb #Nassau #Bahamas

He's posting live videos on Twitter at https://mobile.twitter.com/iCyclone
Based off of observations, I am not seeing why Broward needed to miss school for this, I mean it's 4 o'clock.
1703. lezi
Why does the Weather Channel not put the European models on the air? Even if they don't think they are as accurate the ones they use, forecasting has always been comparing and analyzing ALL the information and then making a forecast and learning from why one worked better than the other. With the Gulf, Florida and the Gulf Stream and changing environmental patterns, it seems that now it is even more important that we receive ALL of the information. They could disclaim the European results but shouldn't we be able to look at all the info so we can learn to see the relative merits of each and every viewpoint?

I thank you for your completeness and your dedication to using all of the tools available and giving us all the possibilities straight and direct as you see them. Thank you.

Lezi