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Matthew Slamming Hispaniola; Southeast U.S. Landfall a Growing Threat

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 12:23 AM GMT on October 04, 2016

Colossal amounts of rain are soaking Haiti and the Dominican Republic as Category 4 Hurricane Matthew heads for an encounter with the western end of Hispaniola. As of the National Hurricane Center’s update at 8:00 pm EDT Monday, Matthew was located about 200 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, moving just east of due north at 8 mph. Matthew’s top sustained winds were holding at 140 mph, solidly in the Category 4 range. Just before 8 PM EDT, a Hurricane Hunter flight found a minimum surface pressure of 934 millibars, down from the 940 mb reported in the 8 PM EDT advisory. However, surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument had not yet increased. Matthew may be completing an eyewall replacement cycle, with the original small eye decaying and a larger outer band taking over. Hurricane Hunters described the new eye as ragged, elliptical and kidney-shaped, about 17 by 30 miles across. Depending on how soon this cycle is completed, it’s possible that Matthew's winds could either increase or decrease by 5 - 10 mph prior to the storm making landfall in southwest Haiti around 8 am EDT Tuesday.


Figure 1.Hurricane Matthew’s eye was clearly evident in this enhanced infrared satellite image from 2345Z (7:45 pm EDT) Monday, October 3, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

As of late Monday, Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Haiti, Cuba’s eastern provinces, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. Matthew’s center is likely to pass over or very near the western tip of Haiti. This will likely spare Jamaica from widespread winds above hurricane force, although very heavy rains can still be expected. On the other hand, Matthew’s track is close to a worst-case scenario for the beleagured nation of Haiti, as it will bring the hurricane’s more dangerous right-hand side across Hispaniola. Far southwest Haiti may experience Matthew’s small core of intense hurricane-force winds, and a much larger area of powerful south winds slamming against tall mountainsides will lead to phenomenal rains over Haiti as well as much of the Dominican Republic (DR). The rains will likely be enhanced by moisture associated with a persistent band of showers and thunderstorms that has flanked Matthew’s east side for days (see this discussion of the mysterious “blob” from Marshall Shepherd). This feature’s rapid movement toward Hispaniola has actually led to heavier rains thus far in the Dominican Republic than in Haiti. A personal weather station in Cabo Rojo, on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the border with Haiti, recorded 22.91” of rain in thirteen hours between 3 am and 4 pm on Monday, including a remarkable 5.33" in the hour from 6 am to 7 am. While PWS data is often suspect, these are believable rainfall amounts based on the satellite presentation of Matthew.



Figure 2. Flooding and coastal damage in Jacmel, Haiti on Monday afternoon, October 3, 2016. Jacmel is on the south coast of Haiti, about 25 miles southwest of the capital of Port-Au-Prince. Image credit: Ruth Chervil.

NHC warns that localized rainfall amounts could total 40” over southern Haiti and the southwestern DR, with widespread 15” - 25” amounts. Massive flooding and landslides are a virtual certainty, with the impacts especially severe on Haiti’s deforested landscape. As discussed in Jeff Masters’ post this morning on the hurricane history of Matthew’s targets, one of the few analogs for this northward-moving major hurricane is Hazel (1954), which killed more than 1000 people in Haiti.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of 2145Z (5:45 pm EDT) Monday, October 3, 2016. Very intense rainbands associated with the mysterious “blob” east of Matthew can be seen at far right. Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory.

Models are in fairly close agreement in taking Matthew across the eastern tip of Cuba late Tuesday. This would keep most of the island on the hurricane’s weaker western side, but only a slight change in track could make a huge difference in the impacts on Cuba. On Wednesday into Thursday, Matthew will be charging across the central and northwest Bahamas. The intensity forecast for Matthew at this point is tough, with both high- and low-end possibilities. Matthew could be cut back to Category 2 or 3 strength by its brief passage over the high mountains of Haiti and/or Cuba. However, it will then have a chance to restrengthen over the deep, warm waters of the Bahamas. Matthew will be surrounded by a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities around 80%) and will pass over sea-surface temperatures close to record highs for early October. It's possible to envision Matthew striking the central Bahamas on Wednesday at anywhere from Category 2 to Category 4 strength. The offficial NHC forecast has Matthew at Category 3 strength through at least Friday.

A growing threat for the Southeast U.S.
A significant westward shift unfolded Monday in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew, and this has big implications for the hurricane’s potential impact on the U.S. East Coast. The main reason appears to be stronger ridging south of 98L and north of Matthew than earlier predicted, which may help to nudge Matthew far enough west for major impacts along the Southeast U.S. coast. Last night’s 50 ensemble runs from the 00Z Monday European model included a number of tracks making landfall along the U.S. East Coast. Most concerning was that all four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the members that most closely match the operational run--depicted Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast. Today’s 12Z Monday Euro ensemble continued along the same lines (see Figure 4 below).


Figure 4. Track forecasts from the four European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Monday, October 3, 2016. The red line is a version of the 12Z Monday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform better than other ensemble members at forecast times of five days and beyond. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).


A track mirroring the Southeast coastline?
Other models have now moved into the Euro ensemble’s camp. The 12Z and 18Z GFS brought Matthew considerably closer to the Florida coast than earlier runs, with a projected landfall in northern South Carolina this weekend (see Figure 4 below) and a second landfall on Cape Cod less than 36 hours later. The 18Z GFS nudged Matthew’s track so that it arrives very near the central Florida coast on Thursday night, then hugs the coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Sunday morning. The 12Z and 18Z Monday GFS ensembles (GEFS) featured a majority of runs making landfall somewhere between Florida and North Carolina, a major shift west from previous GFS ensembles. The 12Z Monday run of the HWRF model tracked about 1 degree (roughly 60 miles) west of its previous two runs, now showing a potential landfall in eastern North Carolina by late Friday.

Obviously, a direct landfall from Matthew could inflict a devastating blow. The key variable in Matthew’s track later this week is how far north and west the hurricane moves before it begins the expected northeastward motion that will take it toward the Northeast U.S. and Canadian Maritimes. A gradual, arcing turn near the coast, as depicted in the 18Z GFS, would avoid a perpendicular, head-on landfall (the type that occured in New Jersey with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy). This would act to reduce the intensity of storm surge at any given point. Such a track would also keep the mainland primarily on the less-intense western side of Matthew. On the other hand, such a track would bring hurricane-related impacts, including strong winds and heavy rains, to many millions of coastal residents. One particular concern is the risk of very heavy rain from eastern North Carolina into the Delmarva region. The last two weeks have already left totals exceeding 10” in some areas (see Figure 6 below). Any rains from Matthew would fall atop saturated soil, and even strong tropical-storm-force winds could lead to widespread tree uprooting. We can also expect major beach erosion as Matthew churns northeastward.

The governors of Florida and North Carolina have already declared states of emergency for all of FL and parts of central and eastern NC.


Figure 5. Total rainfall as observed by radar and rain gauges over the 14-day period ending at 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Monday, October 3, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 6. The 50 forecasts from the 12Z Monday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (left) and the 20 forecasts from the 18Z Monday GFS model ensemble (right) agree that Matthew could make landfall almost anywhere from Florida to Nova Scotia late this week, over the weekend, or early next week. The GFS ensemble has been more tightly clustered than the ECMWF ensemble throughout Matthew’s life. Ensemble model runs are produced by running the same model for the same timeslice a number of times, with the starting-point conditions for each run varied randomly in order to mimic the uncertainty in our observations of the atmosphere. This produces a better sense of the future uncertainty in a given forecast. Image credit: Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

98L: probably no steering influence on Matthew
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave (Invest 98L) is over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles. In their 8 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 60%. High wind shear will likely keep any development of 98L rather limited, and we doubt 98L will be able to exert a significant steering influence on Matthew.

Northeast impacts: Still too soon to tell
The outlook for Matthew beyond the Southeast coast remains quite uncertain. Model solutions vary in how close Matthew’s northeast track might come to the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and New England, ranging from well inland to well offshore. We’ll also need to see how strong Matthew is by the time it passes the Outer Banks. A track just off the Southeast coast would keep Matthew over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, whereas an inland track would lead to more rapid weakening.

The bottom line
Matthew poses an unusually widespread threat to the U.S. East Coast, with impacts possible from Florida to Maine. Residents should monitor the National Hurricane Center’s five-day outlooks (as shown below), as well as any local statements posted to the NHC’s webpage dedicated to Matthew.

We’ll be back with our next update by Tuesday morning at the latest. Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 7. WU depiction of official National Hurricane Center forecast for Matthew as of 5:00 pm EDT Monday, October 3, 2016.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1485. StormJunkie:



Yeah, I called that a few hours ago based on the 06z BAMD. Can I have a cookie too?


You did. Would you like chocolate chip? They are freshly made.
6z GFS spares Florida a bit but unfortunately unlike the 18z, still makes landfall around the SC/NC border as a cat 3/4. Doesn't move east enough to avoid landfall
Quoting 1498. jordan1tylerr:

Cone shift east at 11?

I doubt it. I don't know how many trends they look for before shifting.
The 06z GFS run is very close to the 00z ECMWF through 96 hours.
1505. WxLogic
Quoting 1500. wunderweatherman123:


Really going to depend on what the steering does once he gets almost on top of the coast. 18z had it moving literally right around the coast, 6z is still running might do same thing but again its one run. Euro operational further west but still refuses to bring it inland.


Correct, but I'm personally not basin it on this run but on the overall average of multiple runs. The turn to the NE will definitely be a slow one to almost null as he'll be under a COL once he painstakingly gets to be between Cape and Jacksonville. At that point, depending on the configuration of the TROF (POS/NEG) then it would either be drawn to N, drawn NE, OTS, or in a rare case miss it and loop.
Quoting 1503. SecretStormNerd:


I doubt it. I don't know how many trends they look for before shifting.


For folks on this site, I'm not sure what significance a "cone shift" holds. It seems like most of the veterans on here already know what's going to happen, and for some, quite a bit ahead of the NHC.
Seems like a cone shift is just playing catchup, but maybe that's just me.
1507. barbamz




Saved two latest images. The eye is barely moving in half an hour.
1508. LargoFl

WTNT34 KNHC 040910
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

CORRECTED LOCATION OF HAITI REFERENCE POINT IN SUMMARY SECTION

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MATTHEW NEARING THE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

The government of the Bahamas has replaced the Hurricane Watch with
a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical
storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest
turn Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
will pass near or over southwestern Haiti during the next few
hours, move near eastern Cuba later today, and move near or over
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and
Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern
portion of Haiti and will spread northward today. Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the
southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti
today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas
later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night
and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi



Quoting 1503. SecretStormNerd:


I doubt it. I don't know how many trends they look for before shifting.


Agreed, I seriously doubt they shift the cone. We are talking about a 25-50 mile shift three days out. They will want to see some run to run continuity, or a consensus shift before moving the cone again.

Quoting 1501. Bucsboltsfan:



You did. Would you like chocolate chip? They are freshly made.


Perfect, thanks! lol
1510. beell
Run the 10 day loop for the GFS big picture of the trough over Montana pushing up a ridge over the northeastern part of the US as it tracks to the east-along with the A/B ridge east of Matthew building into the continental ridge.

Select the forecast cycle (00Z) and "500_vort_ht" along with the 10 day loop.

00Z GFS
Quoting 1498. jordan1tylerr:

Cone shift east at 11?
The GFS is still slightly to the west of the offical NHC track
Quoting 1479. Lobstah999:



No reason that relief flights can't fly out of Texas or even central US. Staging locations won't be an issue. The political will to do something will be the issue.
Atlanta would be perfect for handling all the damage everywhere. Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida, Carolinas, etc. Major airport and many, many areas to stage the inflow of relief efforts. I was hugely involved in the Andrew relief efforts. It was a mammoth undertaking and this will be so much bigger. Praying for everyone!
Mountain interaction starting to show. Serious disruption to the convection in the NE quad.

1514. mfcmom
Quoting 1512. kigarrison:

Atlanta would be perfect for handling all the damage everywhere. Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida, Carolinas, etc. Major airport and many, many areas to stage the inflow of relief efforts. I was hugely involved in the Andrew relief efforts. It was a mammoth undertaking and this will be so much bigger. Praying for everyone!
Much will come from the Panhandle, we have multiple military bases up here. Praying for all..........
Please someone reply. Do you think that the Clearwater area is going to get much rain? I will go buy an extra shop vac if I have to.. I had to shop vac my house from a tropical storm
1516. mfcmom
Quoting 1515. connie1976:

Please someone reply. Do you think that the Clearwater area is going to get much rain? I will go buy an extra shop vac if I have to.. I had to shop vac my house from a tropical storm
Honey, I probably would, you could always save the receipt and return it. Better to be safe than sorry.
Quoting 1499. connie1976:

Should I be worried since I am just south of Clearwater? I read that some of you said that the models are trending east?


Unless there is a considerable shift west you should be on the "dry side". They are saying on the local news we could have some wind but not much rain. Of course things still can change.
1518. beell
I'll take a cookie also.

1359. beell
12:37 AM GMT on October 04, 2016

Just no good solutions here for Haiti, the T&C's, The Bahamas, and some portions of the US coast. Even with the ridge pulling back to the east, it returns. Possibly a small nugget of hope that it buys the SE coast a bit of sea room-possibly. But it builds right back.

The next trough may want to ride/crest the ridge up north. In fact, it may push up and build the ridge ahead of it. Serving to strengthen the portion of the (same) ridge forecast to build north of Matthew.

Perhaps a sign that the A/B ridge is lifting/sliding east a bit in the upper-right corner of this loop (NW of 98L). A shift in the flow towards the NNW.


Quoting 1514. mfcmom:

Much will come from the Panhandle, we have multiple military bases up here. Praying for all..........
Hadn't even crossed mind. PERFECT TOO! Marine Mom here :-)
Quoting 1507. barbamz:





Saved two latest images. The eye is barely moving in half an hour.


Matt Jr looks like an exclamation mark
And does anyone know why HH is in the air? Think they are going for a pass once it enters the Windward Passage?
1522. barbamz


Quoting 1516. mfcmom:

Honey, I probably would, you could always save the receipt and return it. Better to be safe than sorry.


Thank you!! :(
1524. WxLogic
Quoting 1515. connie1976:

Please someone reply. Do you think that the Clearwater area is going to get much rain? I will go buy an extra shop vac if I have to.. I had to shop vac my house from a tropical storm


It will depend on the track but as we current stand and assuming it remains the same then I would expect may be some small rain bands. In HURR the W side tends to be the "dryer" side as long as your far enough from the center.

Like always plan for the worst.
Quoting 1517. SunnyDaysFla:



Unless there is a considerable shift west you should be on the "dry side". They are saying on the local news we could have some wind but not much rain. Of course things still can change.
Quoting 1517. SunnyDaysFla:



Unless there is a considerable shift west you should be on the "dry side". They are saying on the local news we could have some wind but not much rain. Of course things still can change.


Thanks!
Les Cayes 137mph gust currently the wind is 117mph.
Thank you all for helping me out!!! I so appreciate it!
1528. WxLogic
Quoting 1521. StormJunkie:

And does anyone know why HH is in the air? Think they are going for a pass once it enters the Windward Passage?


Thinking the same, very likely they're trying to time it just right, so by the time the get there, it will all ready be over water or close to it.
1529. barbamz

Recon is on the way. Link
Quoting 1528. WxLogic:



Thinking the same, very likely they're trying to time it just right, so by the time the get there, it will all ready be over water or close to it.


That just sounds like insanity to me, but that is why I'm not at the sticks.
1531. WxLogic
Quoting 1530. StormJunkie:



That just sounds like insanity to me, but that is why I'm not at the sticks.


I would do it. :)
1532. beell
The NOAA jet ("Gonzo") sampled the ridge to the east of Matthew as well as the trough over the eastern Gulf yesterday. Heights continue to fall in the Atlantic between Florida & The Bahamas-an indication that for a day or so, some eastward component of motion is possible as the ridge slides away from the coast a bit.There is not a lot of oomph left to the trough in the gulf-with lowered heights/winds appearing to be confined to the northeastern gulf. I think its effects on steering are negligible.

HWRF seems about 6hrs slow, but it looks like it modeled the eyewall expanding and increasing over the past 6 hours very well.





Quoting 1531. WxLogic:



I would do it. :)


Me too.
Aren't we supposed to have a Global Hawk up over the storm now?
1535. 7000ppm
OMG, the eye of Matthew has slowed down considerably, and it's also huge (40 miles diameter): the risk is high that Haitians that are straight in the relatively calm weather of the eye of the hurricane, which can stay above them for 1-2 hours, might think that it's all over already, before the southern eye wall arrives ...
1536. WxLogic
Quoting 1534. Lobstah999:



Me too.
Aren't we supposed to have a Global Hawk up over the storm now?


Not that I'm aware of.
If the HH hunters make the first pass before the eye wall comes on land, wouldn't be surprised to see winds of 155mph or above.
Will someone please look at the latest GFS at hour 144 where Matthew is sitting in Boston harbor and tell me what category/surface wind speed that is supposed to be (on land)?
1539. barbamz

Landfalling.
Quoting 1536. WxLogic:



Not that I'm aware of.


Someone posted about it yesterday, I think. I commented that I thought it strange that NASA was flying an aircraft from Cali over here. Someone made the comment that the Hawk could stay on station for 24hrs.
1541. MahFL
Quoting 1521. StormJunkie:

And does anyone know why HH is in the air? Think they are going for a pass once it enters the Windward Passage?


They sample the whole hurricane, not just the eye, so the wind fields can be determined.
I just realized the EPS shifted farther west.... how's the 0z UKMET and its ensembles? Shift east or still like the 12z?
1543. MahFL
Quoting 1540. Lobstah999:



Someone posted about it yesterday, I think. I commented that I thought it strange that NASA was flying an aircraft from Cali over here. Someone made the comment that the Hawk could stay on station for 24hrs.


Yes that was me.
good/morning stormfury's eyes are due west and wisely so. would not take too much increase to be an invest
6z NAVGEM with a Frances like track across Florida..... Refuses to shift east
1546. MahFL
Pinhole eye, has to be Cat5 ?

Looks like Mathew is fanning the flames for the two friends to the east. We could have three storms in the next 48 hrs.
98L could easily become a TD today

1549. elioe
Quoting 1521. StormJunkie:

And does anyone know why HH is in the air? Think they are going for a pass once it enters the Windward Passage?


It went as scheduled in the plan. And, after all, while the northern edge of eye is likely already ashore, the center of eye is most likely to make landfall at sometime between 12Z and 13Z. Plenty of time for HH to make one pass before that. Then they can make observations in other parts of Matthew until the eye comes off the northern shore of Tiburon Peninsula.
Quoting 1546. MahFL:

Pinhole eye, has to be Cat5 ?




we should see in about an hour or so when the Aircraft arrives.

But yes it looks like the structure is continuing to only improve with every minute
Quoting 1548. JrWeathermanFL:

98L could easily become a TD today




AL, 98, 2016100406, , BEST, 0, 232N, 603W, 35, 1010, DB
Quoting 1526. lopaka001:

Les Cayes 137mph gust currently the wind is 117mph.


Good morning, all! But a very bad morning for Haiti. lopaka001, where are you getting the Les Cayes wind info from?

Thanks,
Jeff Masters
1553. pingon
Good morning Jamaica. You just went through the luckiest 24 hr period in your nation's history!
Quoting 1548. JrWeathermanFL:

98L could easily become a TD today


Shear and dry air?
Quoting 1515. connie1976:

Please someone reply. Do you think that the Clearwater area is going to get much rain? I will go buy an extra shop vac if I have to.. I had to shop vac my house from a tropical storm


You should buy 2, as per my calculations you should be submerged in about 48.765 hrs.
Quoting 1552. JeffMasters:



Good morning, all! But a very bad morning for Haiti. lopaka001, where are you getting the Les Cayes wind info from?

Thanks,
Jeff Masters


I think he got it from a few hours ago from the Wunderground station but that station has been offline. Luckily with the Recon Aircraft heading that way we should see what is going on.

1557. ncstorm
Good Morning,

Eastern NC is 150-200% above rainfall per the NWS, Wilmington yesterday..This is just not good per the Euro

Quoting 1552. JeffMasters:



Good morning, all! But a very bad morning for Haiti. lopaka001, where are you getting the Les Cayes wind info from?

Thanks,
Jeff Masters
It was posted on the weather nation channel. I check Wunderground and other sites and they report the 117mph from SSE also. I could rewind my DVR and take a screenie if you like Jeff?
Quoting 1546. MahFL:

Pinhole eye, has to be Cat5 ?




Don't think that's a pinhole eye. It was almost completely done with an EWRC prior to landfall. Had expanded the eyewall considerably.

1560. ncstorm
WPC latest map

1561. Hugo5
Quoting 1552. JeffMasters:



Good morning, all! But a very bad morning for Haiti. lopaka001, where are you getting the Les Cayes wind info from?

Thanks,
Jeff Masters


looking on google weather, not sure of the accuracy, it is showing 106km/h winds.
06z HWRF has shifted W a little bit. So far, it seems to be lining up very closely to the GFS.

1563. barbamz
Conditions in Les Cayes:
http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Haiti/Les-Cay es.aspx
Edit: This might be just the forecast though.
6z HWRF is WAY WEST, looks like it's heading for FL
Good morning, although as Dr. M said not a good morning for Haiti. Matthew is making landfall right about now, with recon about to make a pass. He's a buzzsaw, one of the better organized hurricanes I've tracked in any basin. The eye is still somewhat obscured and given the land interaction it may not really clear out, but that doesn't matter. And dare I use the "a" word (annular)? Would've been unthinkable a couple days ago with all his spiral banding and tiny eye, but now there's very little spiral banding and a much larger eye, even though it doesn't look large due to being partially obscured.


Quoting 1553. pingon:

Good morning Jamaica. You just went through the luckiest 24 hr period in your nation's history!

So far so good in Kingston, rain and wind gusts off and on all night but the air now is almost suffocating and it is too quiet, almost eerie?!
We are up high so I have no idea about potential flooding on the flat but assume there will be quite a bit as well as suge etc on the coast
But we are still under the red and orange part of the photos below so I think it will be worse as the back end kicks on his way north, what do you all think?
Quoting 1557. ncstorm:

Good Morning,

Eastern NC is 150-200% above rainfall per the NWS, Wilmington yesterday..This is just not good per the Euro



Is that based off of the Operational Euro run? EPS are further inland, many over FL. Would be even more rain inland.
Quoting 1564. wunderweatherman123:

6z HWRF is WAY WEST, looks like it's heading for FL


Pretty dang close to where the GFS is, which shifted E a little bit.

06z GFS

Quoting 1548. JrWeathermanFL:

98L could easily become a TD today



Yeah, it already has TS winds so we could get NICOLE today or tomorrow, which would be the first N storm since 2012. Likely will be a minimal tropical storm.
Regarding the models. One model shifting 25 miles east does not mean anything. Would like to see run to run consistency. Also, 2 players no one has mentioned that could change the track. 1)land interaction with Cuba sometimes can shunt a storm in one direction or another
2)wobbles will still happen and that can affect the track
1571. 7000ppm
Quoting 1559. StormJunkie:



Don't think that's a pinhole eye. It was almost completely done with an EWRC prior to landfall. Had expanded the eyewall considerably.




A much wider wind field could mean catastrophic storm surge for Les Cayes (pop: ~100k - in the above image it's to the right of the southern 'tip' of this part of Haiti), as the much larger diameter wind field combined with the slower forward motion exposed it to about 1-2 hours of 100 mph+ winds blowing the sea straight into the very low lying plains there. This could have happened despite the city not being directly in the eye.

Which would be followed by massive flooding from the rivers to the north of the city.

All made worse that this all happened at 4-5am local time, probably still in total darkness.
Tracks will shift East today. Path OTS will open up. Just a hunch
6z GFS ensembles have shifted further inland for the Carolinas, a few members less to FL but also less members missing the coast. If trends don't change, FL, SC, or NC will get a direct landfall. Georgia too will feel the wrath of Matthew if it stays closer to the coast
Look at the feathering of the windfield where it's meshing with the coastline. Interesting.

I live 1/2 mile from the Atlantic in Deerfield Beach, FL. Starting to get very nervous. I may even have to evacuate. I have a dog and a kitten to take with me. Probably head out west to a friends house or go to the barn in Parkland area where I keep my horse. Geeze. Hope the horses are far enough west. Went through Frances back in 2002/3, and that was only a tropical storm.
1576. 62901IL
Quoting 1575. AnneBytheSea:

I live 1/2 mile from the Atlantic in Deerfield Beach, FL. Starting to get very nervous. I may even have to evacuate. I have a dog and a kitten to take with me. Probably head out west to a friends house or go to the barn in Parkland area where I keep my horse. Geeze. Hope the horses are far enough west. Went through Frances back in 2002/3, and that was only a tropical storm.


Frances was in 2004
Could be some wicked gusts brought down in the squalls StormJunkie.



Quoting 1558. lopaka001:

It was posted on the weather nation channel. I check Wunderground and other sites and they report the 117mph from SSE also. I could rewind my DVR and take a screenie if you like Jeff?


I don't think Les Cayes has any weather reporting stations. I saw that the Port-Au-Prince airport reported sustained winds of 117 mph yesterday, but that was clearly a glitch and was not real.

I agree, we will wait for the HHunter data to see.

Thanks,
Jeff Masters
Good morning all. Heading out to move boats and start preparing for the worst. Nc storm, it is very wet up here in morehead also. Be back later
1580. ncstorm
Jacqueline Charles is giving live updates on Twitter..she was one of the reporters from a story I posted last night about Haiti

Jacqueline Charles ‏@Jacquiecharles 20m20 minutes ago
Mayor Laviette Evil of Pestel says "The Adventist Church and National School of Pestel are destroyed," @RTVCHAITI #MatthewHaiti

Quoting 1569. HurricaneFan:


Yeah, it already has TS winds so we could get NICOLE today or tomorrow, which would be the first N storm since 2012. Likely will be a minimal tropical storm.


I just saw bastardi in TWC and he was standing in front of the screen and he just X'd out 98L and said forget about this 98L....the main player is Matthew. This guys is burnt
Also we have 360 views and the clouds are visibly moving in different directions?!?!?!?!
To the east and south they are moving south but to the west they are moving north and west so is the east/south batch part of Matthew?
Also the last time we saw whitecaps past the Palisadoes like this morning was when Sandy was heading in!
It feels like the air is being sucked away...hard to describe...and opinions?
Thanks!
Quoting 1570. wunderkidwx:

Regarding the models. One model shifting 25 miles east does not mean anything. Would like to see run to run consistency. Also, 2 players no one has mentioned that could change the track. 1)land interaction with Cuba sometimes can shunt a storm in one direction or another
2)wobbles will still happen and that can affect the track


Run to run consistency of +/- 25 miles is likely too much to ask for in the 60hr + time frame. What I'm interested in seeing is if the model guidance suite continues to tighten. Which through 6z, it has. Fl coast all the way through the OBX should currently be making preparations.
1584. tj175
Quoting 1572. joseph1010:

Tracks will shift East today. Path OTS will open up. Just a hunch


What basis? Please post your reasoning
Quoting 1578. JeffMasters:



I don't think Les Cayes has any weather reporting stations. I saw that the Port-Au-Prince airport reported sustained winds of 117 mph yesterday, but that was clearly a glitch and was not real.

I agree, we will wait for the HHunter data to see.

Thanks,
Jeff Masters
Have no idea where they got the info Jeff but here is the screenie. Thanks for the hard work and fixing the blog.

http://i.imgur.com/RQd6JSU.jpg
Quoting 1577. BaltimoreBrian:

Could be some wicked gusts brought down in the squalls StormJunkie.



Yeah, it is not looking good for a large section of the Carolinas coastlines. At this point, it's time to prep. Went to Walmart at 1am this morning and they were out of water. Said the truck hadn't brought any either. Luckily, I already had water. I expect many similar scenarios to play out the next couple days unless something major changes.
Hugoid

6z HWRF...Bulls Bay



Alright, I'm off for a power nap. See y'all before 18z.
For the first time, the ECMWF and GFS are identical in terms of timing and location for Matthew as the storm nears Florida.

06z GFS at 66 hours.


00z ECMWF at 72 hours.
1590. Hugo5
Jeremie, had an active weather station, but went offline earlier today. last observed gust of 135km/h i believe.
Quoting 1570. wunderkidwx:

Regarding the models. One model shifting 25 miles east does not mean anything. Would like to see run to run consistency. Also, 2 players no one has mentioned that could change the track. 1)land interaction with Cuba sometimes can shunt a storm in one direction or another
2)wobbles will still happen and that can affect the track


It doesn't but I would rather it shift 25 miles east than west.
1592. 62901IL
WE *MAY* HAVE LANDFALL
1593. pingon
Quoting 1566. negriltracy:


So far so good in Kingston, rain and wind gusts off and on all night but the air now is almost suffocating and it is too quiet, almost eerie?!
We are up high so I have no idea about potential flooding on the flat but assume there will be quite a bit as well as suge etc on the coast
But we are still under the red and orange part of the photos below so I think it will be worse as the back end kicks on his way north, what do you all think?
I think that , outside of some flooding, the worst has passed. Not bad when you look at what you were facing the last couple of days.
Quoting 1576. 62901IL:



Frances was in 2004


Thanks -- couldn't remember. Not enough coffee yet.
1595. ncstorm
Radio Station out of Haiti

The rapidly deteriorating situation in Haiti under the potentially disastrous effect of Matthew

The situation deteriorated rapidly in the South of Haiti under the effect of the first demonstrations of the powerful hurricane Matthew, when thousands of people flock to the temporary shelters, according to official information.

Following a marine submersion, several coastal towns were flooded, including Port-Hi, where one person died. This has not had time to evacuate his home, reports a waterfront AlterPresse.

The information was confirmed by civil protection, which also announced that five houses were destroyed and plantations in Port-Hi where losses were recorded in livestock level.

Other cities like South AnseDHainault, Tiburon, Les Cayes, Boucan Chardonniere The Irishman, Lady Mary, The English Bariadelle and Petite Rivière also suffered flooding.

Some panic was observed in several regions of the country when the effects of the Category 4 hurricane began to be felt.

More than 6,400 people flocked to temporary shelters in the South and West where the wind and rain increased in intensity during the night rather long for the residents of several neighborhoods in the metropolitan area.

Within two hours the amount of people taking refuge in shelters has doubled. For over 24 hours, the authorities struggled to move people living in areas at risk, including in coastal slums of the capital.

"The danger is in front of us," warned the president Jocelerme Privert in a speech in the media on the evening of 3 October. He called for "solidarity" and to preserve the lives of everyone.
Quoting 1545. wunderweatherman123:

6z NAVGEM with a Frances like track across Florida..... Refuses to shift east


Dr. Masters said that the NAVGEM is not a reliable model for forecasting track.
1597. barbamz

Eye is inland now.
98L Will form today and should based on a signature I have used to figure out intensity She should become a cat 2 during her run. IMHO If you don't believe me just watch it today by 11pm it will be classified.
Quoting 1563. barbamz:

Conditions in Les Cayes:
http://www.

.com/City-Town/Haiti/Les-Cay es.aspx

Edit: This might be just the forecast though.


I note that site shows 137 but it's in kts not mph. I wonder if someone in a hurry read it wrongly.
Quoting 1598. pspredicts:

98L Will form today and should based on a signature I have used to figure out intensity She should become a cat 2 during her run. IMHO If you don't believe me just watch it today by 11pm it will be classified.


I don't disagree that there's a chance 98L could develop today, but where are you getting a Cat. 2 from? Upper level winds are hostile and it's a very small, disorganized system.

At this point 25 miles might effect wind effects rain amounts. Decisions need to be made now for evacuations. Watching and waiting is over and hoping won't change anything.
Les Cayes area geography really worst case with the location of storm and on-shore flow...
1603. 7000ppm
Quoting 1580. ncstorm:

Jacqueline Charles is giving live updates on Twitter..she was one of the reporters from a story I posted last night about Haiti

Jacqueline Charles ‏@Jacquiecharles 20m20 minutes ago
Mayor Laviette Evil of Pestel says "The Adventist Church and National School of Pestel are destroyed," @RTVCHAITI #MatthewHaiti




Note that Pestel isn't even in the eyewall ...

According to Guantanamo radar data the worst winds should be in Pestel in about 30 minutes.

I am worried about these coastal towns that were in the northern eyewall, and where the southern eyewall is passing through right now:

- Les Irois (pop: 17k)
- Dame Marie (pop: 27k)
- Anse-d'Hainault (pop: 23k)
- Tiburon (pop: 21k)
- Les Anglais (pop: 27k)
- Jeremie (pop: 30k)
- Port-a-Piment (pop: 17k).

There are several hundred thousand Haitians in the direct path of this monster, and most of them in very exposed coastal towns.
Quoting 1515. connie1976:

Please someone reply. Do you think that the Clearwater area is going to get much rain? I will go buy an extra shop vac if I have to.. I had to shop vac my house from a tropical storm


Local mets are saying 15-30 mph winds and a few rain squalls. I thought yesterday we could see a Francis or Jeanne type track but it isn't looking like it today.
Quoting 1602. ScottGridley:

Les Cayes area geography really worst case with the location of storm and on-shore flow...

A bit like the Tacloban disaster, this.
1606. guygee
06Z GEFS 996mb combined with 1024 mb at 72 hours
Already seeing reports on Twitter of destruction across Haiti.
Quoting 1604. Bucsboltsfan:



Local mets are saying 15-30 mph winds and a few rain squalls. I thought yesterday we could see a Francis or Jeanne type track but it isn't looking like it today.

Can still happen I would not let my guard down.
Quoting 1600. CybrTeddy:



I don't disagree that there's a chance 98L could develop today, but where are you getting a Cat. 2 from? Upper level winds are hostile and it's a very small, disorganized system.




He is probably looking at the UKMET forecast for 98L. However, I don't think this is a likely scenario...

1610. vital1
Quoting 1466. SecretStormNerd:

Meanwhile, in Palm Beach County there are are group of clowns threatening all area schools saying they will kill the teachers and principals before they get to the kids. What is wrong with people!? The instagrams they are posting are scary to say the least. A lot of parents will probably keep their kids home today and the rest of the week. Sorry, I know this is off topic, but I know there are parents with their kids in PBC schools in here.


Not sure about the gun laws in FL, but here in MS we can open carry as well as Enhanced Concealed Carry. We also have the Castle Doctrine to protect us if we shoot someone who we feel is threatening us or our property. 80% of the people walking/driving around here are carrying at any given time. I'm going to venture to say those dumb clowns are taking their lives in their hands in states that have gun laws like MS. ESPECIALLY if they threaten the kids. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Quoting 1577. BaltimoreBrian:

Could be some wicked gusts brought down in the squalls StormJunkie.






When discussing wind speeds at the surface it's better to look at the 10m map. It can be found in the lower dynamics selection.

MATTHEW - Eight Day Loop - v8.1

UPDATED CONTENT - October 4, 2016 - as of 5:00 AM EDT
It is a signature I have been watching and noticed about 12 yrs ago. So far it has been 99%Accurate. Ancient chinese secret?
Quoting 1600. CybrTeddy:



I don't disagree that there's a chance 98L could develop today, but where are you getting a Cat. 2 from? Upper level winds are hostile and it's a very small, disorganized system.


Quoting 1608. sporteguy03:


Can still happen I would not let my guard down.


Yes, keep checking back.
1615. barbamz



Anyone know why Gonzo did not fly the overnight mission?
1595. ncstorm

Thanks for posting the Haiti radio report. Horrible day there; it's good to know that some made it to shelter.
looks like mat will soon be back over water has he is going over a vary small part of land all so i do not see him weaking all that march if at all
1619. WxLogic
Matthew should be commencing that turn to the NNW very shortly.
First photo I've seen out of Les Cayes, Haiti (hit by eyewall just now) - Source



...and from Thomassin, near Port-au-Prince - Source

1621. ProPoly
Quoting 1587. BaltimoreBrian:

Hugoid




Ugh that would be bad. Absolutely plausible though.
The daughter of a family from my town was killed in Port-Au-Prince during the 2010 earthquake. They have a foundation and orphanage helping the many children in Haiti - I'm sure they'll need more help tomorrow.

BeLikeBrit.org
Quoting 1613. pspredicts:

It is a signature I have been watching and noticed about 12 yrs ago. So far it has been 99%Accurate. Ancient chinese secret?


The most impressive aspect of that animation is seeing Matthew's beastly symmetrical flow reach just to 98L's southwest.
Quoting 1618. thetwilightzone:

looks like mat will soon be back over water has he is going over a vary small part of land all so i do not see him weaking all that march if at all
There is Pic Macaya down there which is 2,347 meters/7,700 feet. Could disrupet the eyewall for a while. Click map to expand.

Quoting 1434. barbamz:


Latest MIMIC from today shows Matt's northern and eastern eyewall to be very strong ... unfortunately. Will be one hellish landfall :-(


Looking at that image, it looks like Mathew completed the EWRC just before making landfall in Haiti. That's just ... CRUEL!
Satellite images appear to show a stadium effect in the eye as well - won't be surprised if it gets upgraded to a cat 5 in post storm analysis, but regardless, effects are going to be catastrophic.

I'm not informed enough to advocate for one specifically, but if you have the means, PLEASE consider making a donation to an organization that will be involved in helping Haiti after Matthew has passed. It will probably get lost in the US News with Matthew likely to have an effect on the coast here shortly, but I don't want to even image the heartbreaking images and stories that will emerge in the coming days :(
The 00Z GFS model run on October 4 is incredible! I cannot ever recall a powerful hurricane taking this track.
1627. ncstorm
My god..if you have Facebook, link provided..

#MatthewHaiti Les Cayes at the pastor St Germain this morning 6:30 am http://fb.me/56voCVEK1
looks like Cuba will be lucky has it will stay this off shore of them all so it looks like mat will shoot the gap and stay over water has he is about too move back over water so i really dont see march if any weaking at all mat the NHC is being way too low on there forecast has we could be seeing a bombing cat 4 or 5 hurricane in the Bahamas
I think he is ventilating her
Quoting 1623. LostTomorrows:



The most impressive aspect of that animation is seeing Matthew's beastly symmetrical flow reach just to 98L's southwest.
1630. elioe
Quoting 1605. cRRKampen:


A bit like the Tacloban disaster, this.


Given past experiences about tropical cyclone effects in Haiti, this could rather be like the Irrawaddy Delta disaster... (in terms of death toll, not type of damage)
Quoting 1621. ProPoly:



Ugh that would be bad. Absolutely plausible though.
That's what you get for mocking the trough.Looks like it will turn to the south and east of us here in D.C.
When do we think watches and warnings will post for east central Florida?
1633. barbamz

Latest from recon (the background image of the eye is outdated though).
1634. tj175
Weather forecast for my area here in Ft. Lauderdale on weather.com


Oct 6.

Heavy Rain/Wind
85° 77°  100% NNW 45 mph 81% 4 of 10  7:15 am  7:01 pm  11:53 am  11:01 pm

Tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible. Showery rains containing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. High near 85F. Winds NNW at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 3 to 5 inches of rain expected.
Thu Night

. Oct 6.

Rain/Wind Early
-- 77°  90% W 56 mph 84% 0 of 10  7:15 am  7:01 pm  11:53 am  11:01 pm

Tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible. Frequent rain showers accompanied by heavy downpours and strong wind gusts early. Cloudy and windy late. Low 77F. Winds W at 50 to 70 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall around a half an inch


Quoting 1632. chancho1423:

When do we think watches and warnings will post for east central Florida?


Probably tomorrow or later tonight.
Quoting 1629. pspredicts:

I think he is ventilating her


You're probably right. Wonder if this will be a Wilma/Alpha scenario, in which the former's monster circulation helps the latter spring to life... only to munch on it a couple/few days later and destroy the system completely.
Quoting 1600. CybrTeddy:



I don't disagree that there's a chance 98L could develop today, but where are you getting a Cat. 2 from? Upper level winds are hostile and it's a very small, disorganized system.



oh my god that totally looks disorganized like that's so accurate omg
(sarcasm)
1638. Soflo
Boynton beach palm beach county 5 miles from shore. Is today shutter day?
1639. ncstorm
Jacqueline Charles ‏@Jacquiecharles 59s59 seconds ago
Johnny Francois of Grand Goave says "a lot of homes have been destroyed." He's asking for resident near rives to relocate. #Matthew
Quoting 1632. chancho1423:

When do we think watches and warnings will post for east central Florida?


11:00 am according to NHC.
Quoting 1611. Sfloridacat5:

When discussing wind speeds at the surface it's better to look at the 10m map. It can be found in the lower dynamics selection.
I realize that, but squalls can bring 850 mb winds down to the surface in gusts.
1642. ProPoly
Quoting 1625. HighOnHurricanes:



Looking at that image, it looks like Mathew completed the EWRC just before making landfall in Haiti. That's just ... CRUEL!
Satellite images appear to show a stadium effect in the eye as well - won't be surprised if it gets upgraded to a cat 5 in post storm analysis, but regardless, effects are going to be catastrophic.

I'm not informed enough to advocate for one specifically, but if you have the means, PLEASE consider making a donation to an organization that will be involved in helping Haiti after Matthew has passed. It will probably get lost in the US News with Matthew likely to have an effect on the coast here shortly, but I don't want to even image the heartbreaking images and stories that will emerge in the coming days :(


That really does not look like something the tip of that peninsula is going to "kill," "decapitate" or even seriously wound. Too big, too organized.
Quoting 1624. BaltimoreBrian:



There is Pic Macaya down there which is 2,347 meters/7,700 feet. Could disrupet the eyewall for a while. Click map to expand.




At least the western tip of Cuba has some high elevations. So people can easily get to a elevation to avoid storm surge flooding.
But hopefully they can find a building that can handle the wind. Being on the north side of a hill or mountain would sure help. Unfortunately not everyone will be so lucky or understand this.
1644. ncstorm
I'm scared to see her next tweets..this is horrific

Jacqueline Charles ‏@Jacquiecharles 2m2 minutes ago
Radio Caraibes reporter says flood water reaching some Les Cayes residents "at their shoulders." @MiamiHerald #MatthewHaiti @RTVCHAITI
If you want to see something really interesting, look at Google maps and zoom in to Haiti. The resolution is amazing, the land clearing just immense, and the rivers were running brown with dirt on day this pic was taken. After looking at the coastline, go to Port-a-Prince and look at the tin roofs, tent towns, earthquake damage (prevalent). the resolution is so good that, if you brought a college football themed pop-up-tent to tent-town, then you would be able to see it clearly.
Quoting 1632. chancho1423:

When do we think watches and warnings will post for east central Florida?

At 11am Tuesday.
Quoting 1637. NunoLava1998:


oh my god that totally looks disorganized like that's so accurate omg
(sarcasm)


Much of 98L's convection is sheared off to the side.
...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LES ANGLAIS IN WESTERN HAITI AT 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 74.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
Quoting 1627. ncstorm:

My god..if you have Facebook, link provided..

#MatthewHaiti Les Cayes at the pastor St Germain this morning 6:30 am http://fb.me/56voCVEK1


those sounds took me right back to Hugo.... :(
Quoting 1637. NunoLava1998:


oh my god that totally looks disorganized like that's so accurate omg
(sarcasm)


... okay?
It's been great to see all the long timers posting over the last two days, I lurk now and rarely post, but I do have a question/comment: I am wondering why the NHC is hesitant to post warnings/watches in SE/C FL. If we are going to have Cat. 1 conditions (it seems to be a strong possibility), waiting until later means less time for the barrier islands to evacuate. It is a scary scenario that is being set up.

And yes, we got crazy killer clowns, it's homecoming week at my school, a hurricane, and all we need now is a partridge in a Pear tree.
Quoting 1622. ScottGridley:

The daughter of a family from my town was killed in Port-Au-Prince during the 2010 earthquake. They have a foundation and orphanage helping the many children in Haiti - I'm sure they'll need more help tomorrow.

BeLikeBrit.org


What a testament to her memory and helping Haitian orphans. The building looks strong, let us know if it gets through ok. (I donated a small amount, best I can do now).
Quoting 1640. stormy2008:



11:00 am according to NHC.


Yes... That's what Dr. Knabb said at 7:00 AM EST today
That's my backyard pre storm, Sunday am pic coming later if we have power which is not looking likely at this point
1656. 7000ppm
Quoting 1633. barbamz:


Latest from recon (the background image of the eye is outdated though).


Unfortunately that does not bode well for Les Cayes: very broad wind field of ~100 knots flight level affecting Les Cayes - that translates to well over 100 mph surface winds, right?

This wind field possibly broadened shortly after the inner eye collapsed after the EWRC. The first visible satellite frame is showing spokes in the NE quadrant - could Matthew have had annular characteristics shortly before landfall? We'll probably never know.
Quoting 1609. Carnivorous:



He is probably looking at the UKMET forecast for 98L. However, I don't think this is a likely scenario...


Quoting 1600. CybrTeddy:



I don't disagree that there's a chance 98L could develop today, but where are you getting a Cat. 2 from? Upper level winds are hostile and it's a very small, disorganized system.



Very hostile looks like shear and dry air.


1658. Hugo5
Quoting 1637. NunoLava1998:


oh my god that totally looks disorganized like that's so accurate omg
(sarcasm)


While it finally appears that 98 now has a closed LLC, it does not have the wind speed to support the classification of TS as of yet. It does appear that wind shear is easing up on the system and that may help in the development into the later today and tonight to becoming a tropical storm, but for now I think it will have to live with becoming a depression in the next 24 hours.
1659. nash36
Good morning, everyone.

My heart hurts for Haiti right now. Terrible situation unfolding.

I just got to work, and was hoping I would find a synoptic change. Evidently, I'm gonna be disappointed.
Quoting 1652. 7daysnopowerfrancis:

It's been great to see all the long timers posting over the last two days, I lurk now and rarely post, but I do have a question/comment: I am wondering why the NHC is hesitant to post warnings/watches in SE/C FL. If we are going to have Cat. 1 conditions (it seems to be a strong possibility), waiting until later means less time for the barrier islands to evacuate. It is a scary scenario that is being set up.

And yes, we got crazy killer clowns, it's homecoming week at my school, a hurricane, and all we need now is a partridge in a Pear tree.
The NHC waits to issue hurricane watches 48 hours before hurricane conditions are expected. As you can see in the HWRF, which is pretty representative of the models at this point, hurricane conditions will not be felt in Florida 48 hours from now. The NHC may issue at 11 a.m. or wait until 5 p.m for the evening news.

Thoughts and prayers to everyone impacted by this storm, and who will be impacted in the coming week.
Preparing here in St. Augustine, and hoping the big curve is not 90 miles West of center-line forecast, which at this point is probably only the Matt tracking west 10 miles south of expected run to the West. I know the likelihood is a given that it will be somewhere on either side of the forecast track; I just hopefully not too much on the Fl side.
Thanks to everyone for meaningful blogging.
The 12Z model runs should be very interesting!
Good Morning; Matthew is lashing Haiti this morning and continues to show that it is continuing to try to beat the odds; trying to take a path through the Windward Passage avoiding significant land interaction with the mountains of Cuba; not sure if it will make it through the "net" based on the current jog.

Have to see how much disruption happens later today and how long the recovery period will take.

As you can see from the very strong convection in the East Quad, parts of Haiti and Hispanola are about to get leveled; horrible.


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Matthew wants no rivals. Off with "Nicole's" head!
1665. PBG00
Quoting 1652. 7daysnopowerfrancis:

It's been great to see all the long timers posting over the last two days, I lurk now and rarely post, but I do have a question/comment: I am wondering why the NHC is hesitant to post warnings/watches in SE/C FL. If we are going to have Cat. 1 conditions (it seems to be a strong possibility), waiting until later means less time for the barrier islands to evacuate. It is a scary scenario that is being set up.

And yes, we got crazy killer clowns, it's homecoming week at my school, a hurricane, and all we need now is a partridge in a Pear tree.


I never come on unless a storm threatens..but I agree, why not raise the warnings..in not doing so, people are taking this very lightly and thinking it will not come at all. Some at my school ( I am a teacher) said no warnings means it is not coming. Unfortunately people do not prepare unless told to do so and only when it is on their door step! Homecoming week here too..killer clowns and all. Carry on all..thanks as always for your insight (and the entertainment cause some of this stuff is down right funny)
Quoting 1637. NunoLava1998:


oh my god that totally looks disorganized like that's so accurate omg
(sarcasm)


It looks sheared off on the western flank lol
1668. MahFL
Quoting 1632. chancho1423:

When do we think watches and warnings will post for east central Florida?


The Director of the NHC said probably 11 am today.
Quoting 1658. Hugo5:



While it finally appears that 98 now has a closed LLC, it does not have the wind speed to support the classification of TS as of yet. It does appear that wind shear is easing up on the system and that may help in the development into the later today and tonight to becoming a tropical storm, but for now I think it will have to live with becoming a depression in the next 24 hours.


this

AL, 98, 2016100406, , BEST, 0, 232N, 603W, 35, 1010, DB


and this

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located near southwestern Haiti.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure area located about 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.
Satellite wind data indicate that the low is producing winds to
gale force, and the system could become sufficiently well organized
to result in the formation of a tropical storm later today.
The
low is expected to move generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the next few days, and upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


says other wise
Waiting still for State of Emergency to be posted for SC.....have em to the south (I know those come first) and have em to the north... I know the watches and warnings come with 48hrs and then 24-36 hours respectively..... but state of emergency is the little statement that preludes getting help...ie national guard, FEMA preparedness, leveling up on PSDs running late to get all garbage, limbs, etc before the storm, etc.....not ridiculing....just wondering what the hold off is
Quoting 1662. NutZilla:

The 12Z model runs should be very interesting!


Isn't every model run interesting?
Feel for Haiti..That looks horrific. Recon just extrapolated 940.8mb..found 118 knots
(~ 135.8 mph).

GEOS-5 rakes it up the coast from South Florida..

There is me in the eye..

North Florida get ready too..

Has it trying to push into GA/SC. The ridge above crushing it too. Doesn't make it anymore north than that.. We in for some weird days maybe.
The other notable thing is the current NHC track with a ride up the Coast basically tracking parts of the entire Eastern Seaboard. If this actually comes to pass, without a landfall inshore, that will be another amazing result basically stripping the beaches of coastal sand all the way up in addition to the coastal impacts from surge and tropical storm force winds.


Quoting 1632. chancho1423:

When do we think watches and warnings will post for east central Florida?


11am... it pretty much says so in the 8am advisory
Quoting 1670. tiggeriffic:

Waiting still for State of Emergency to be posted for SC.....have em to the south (I know those come first) and have em to the north... I know the watches and warnings come with 48hrs and then 24-36 hours respectively..... but state of emergency is the little statement that preludes getting help...ie national guard, FEMA preparedness, leveling up on PSDs running late to get all garbage, limbs, etc before the storm, etc.....not ridiculing....just wondering what the hold off is


Nikki Haley is the hold off...
1676. Hugo5
Quoting 1669. thetwilightzone:



this

AL, 98, 2016100406, , BEST, 0, 232N, 603W, 35, 1010, DB


and this

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located near southwestern Haiti.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure area located about 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.
Satellite wind data indicate that the low is producing winds to
gale force, and the system could become sufficiently well organized
to result in the formation of a tropical storm later today.
The
low is expected to move generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the next few days, and upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


says other wise

Not sure how that goes against what i've said, but okay.
Quoting 1672. Skyepony:

Feel for Haiti..That looks horrific. Recon just extrapolated 940.8mb..found 118 knots
(~ 135.8 mph).

GEOS-5 rakes it up the coast from South Florida..

There is me in the eye..

North Florida get ready too..

Has it trying to push into GA/SC. The ridge above crushing it too. Doesn't make it anymore north than that.. We in for some weird days maybe.



NO THANKS on that last one Skye......just sayin
NE Fl here. Got my windows boarded up. I guess now it's time to hit the Lazy Boy, and pop a cold one...
Quoting 1671. Bucsboltsfan:



Isn't every model run interesting?


Yes...but the next 48 hours of computer models will be especially interesting...meaning that more people than normal will be looking at them....including people who are not interested in weather until something like Matthew comes along.
Quoting 1660. BaltimoreBrian:

The NHC waits to issue hurricane watches 48 hours before hurricane conditions are expected. As you can see in the HWRF, which is pretty representative of the models at this point, hurricane conditions will not be felt in Florida 48 hours from now. The NHC may issue at 11 a.m. or wait until 5 p.m for the evening news.




I think this is too far east
Surprised there were no watches posted for South FL yet. Expected to see them this morning
Quoting 1644. ncstorm:

I'm scared to see her next tweets..this is horrific

Jacqueline Charles ‏@Jacquiecharles 2m2 minutes ago
Radio Caraibes reporter says flood water reaching some Les Cayes residents "at their shoulders." @MiamiHerald #MatthewHaiti @RTVCHAITI



1683. K8eCane
Quoting 1652. 7daysnopowerfrancis:

It's been great to see all the long timers posting over the last two days, I lurk now and rarely post, but I do have a question/comment: I am wondering why the NHC is hesitant to post warnings/watches in SE/C FL. If we are going to have Cat. 1 conditions (it seems to be a strong possibility), waiting until later means less time for the barrier islands to evacuate. It is a scary scenario that is being set up.

And yes, we got crazy killer clowns, it's homecoming week at my school, a hurricane, and all we need now is a partridge in a Pear tree.


Your post gave me a smile. Love the screen name. Been there, done that and dont want it from Matthew LOL. We dont have clowns in Wilmington yet but we do have a few partridges in a pear tree.
Quoting 1663. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; Matthew is lashing Haiti this morning and continues to show that it is continuing to try to beat the odds; trying to take a path through the Windward Passage avoiding significant land interaction with the mountains of Cuba; not sure if it will make it through the "net" based on the current jog.

Have to see how much disruption happens later today and how long the recovery period will take.

As you can see from the very strong convection in the East Quad, parts of Haiti and Hispanola are about to get leveled; horrible.


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


Looks to me in the last few frames that Matthew is making a Left turn.
Crazy
Slow roller, Matthew. Hopefully it will give land more time to work on his core. (Sorry, Haiti! Prayers!)
1686. pingon
Grand Piedra, Cuba radar :



Please consider donating to the International Red Cross when the storm clears Haiti and prayers for the folks in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas who are next on deck after the Windward Passage.

Also, very troubled by the current track which basically keeps the core near or over the Gulf Stream for substantial periods of time:  could keep it as a significant storm at landfall if the ridge steers it into the US downstream:




Quoting 1678. Aaxis101:

NE Fl here. Got my windows boarded up. I guess now it's time to hit the Lazy Boy, and pop a cold one...


I am in Jax myself, not boarding up just going to ride out whatever winds we get which at this point sounds like maybe 45+ on Thursday/Friday. Don't forget the popcorn and finger on the F5 key!
The area that Matthew is lashing Haiti is heavily populated....low lying...and does not have adequate concrete shelter above the height of 30 feet.

I imagine that hundreds if not thousands of people are dying right now. It's so sad. What a terrible track this storm has taken!
Quoting 1677. tiggeriffic:



NO THANKS on that last one Skye......just sayin


No thanks on any of them that Skye posted, if you please.
Quoting 1619. WxLogic:

Matthew should be commencing that turn to the NNW very shortly.


Only if he's been weakend enough. Otherwise he'll remain heading N/NNE.
1693. Loduck
Quoting 1629. pspredicts:

I think he is ventilating her
can you please post a link for this animation? I'd really like to see it. TIA
Looking at the cone, if it keeps getting further and further to the west, do y'all see any meteorological (is that the right word?!) possibility that this thing could get into the Gulf?

May God have mercy on everyone in this thing's path.
Quoting 1678. Aaxis101:

NE Fl here. Got my windows boarded up. I guess now it's time to hit the Lazy Boy, and pop a cold one...


While being proactive is never frowned upon, you can wait till watch-warning to board up! It's gonna be a few dark days
Take some vit D

Good Luck

Stay safe
Quoting 1666. CybrTeddy:

Eye should be emerging off the coast soon.




looking at the radar, it looks as if the land interaction jerked the circulation to the left a lot.
Quoting 1684. Jarhead6012:



Looks to me in the last few frames that Matthew is making a Left turn.
Crazy


Not completely crazy. Hurricane tend to bounce off of land at first impact.
Is a new WU depiction of the official National Hurricane Center forecast map available or is above the latest?
Matthew is having and going to continue to have wide spread effects, clearly worse for less-developed islands/countries. Watching and waiting but it is hard to tell what will happen in my location. When is the time to put hurricane shutters up for south of Miami? Already prepared with batteries, flashlights, water, tequila, and Oreos.
Anyone shuttering windows in Miami?
Looking like another hot-tower, as the core crosses land, right in the NW Quad just off of the eye wall:





Quoting 1675. Tokenfreak:



Nikki Haley is the hold off...

Quoting 1695. nolawombat:

Looking at the cone, if it keeps getting further and further to the west, do y'all see any meteorological (is that the right word?!) possibility that this thing could get into the Gulf?

May God have mercy on everyone in this thing's path.


I'll keep it simple: no, it is not going to the gulf. Even with the westward shift, what we still have is a hurricane going north roughly parallel to the Atlantic coast.
Quoting 1694. JohnCaesar:

Anyone shuttering windows in Miami?


Not until there is a warning issued.
Coming into visual on satrad Satrad - Bahamas
Quoting 1675. Tokenfreak:



Nikki Haley is the hold off...


I know who....just wondering why.....
As expected last night, some of models have shifted slightly to the East within the 72 hour mark. 12z will most likely show the same as the models begin to near the reasonable time window. Watches should be up next advisory.
Quoting 1699. drg0dOwnCountry:

Is a new WU depiction of the official National Hurricane Center forecast map available or is above the latest?



yes

Link
1710. Loduck
Quoting 1641. BaltimoreBrian:

I realize that, but squalls can bring 850 mb winds down to the surface in gusts.
Yes. That is what Levi talked about last night. He said that the 190mph plus winds at 1000ft can come down to the surface in gust. Whoa!!
1711. Brock31
Quoting 1683. K8eCane:



Your post gave me a smile. Love the screen name. Been there, done that and dont want it from Matthew LOL. We dont have clowns in Wilmington yet but we do have a few partridges in a pear tree.


I suppose, if there is a silver lining, that if we do go days without power after matthew, temperatures are supposed to be pretty nice. Past storms I've sat through have involved days and days of 90 humidity and misery. After all the rain we've had...any partridge will be laying on the ground along with all the pear trees...lol
I think that South Carolina has a policy of "too little, too late" and I expect that to happen again. Local governments and residents are expected to figure it out. 
Ms. Haley is probably doing the final touches on the hair and make-up before she holds the press conference to make the announcement; she needs to hurry up:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Looks like it's gonna shift to the east away from FL
Les Cayes is getting drilled with southeast winds. Looking at the coastline there water is likely piling up there and west.

1716. CCK
Saw many of the "built in" hurricane shutters on condos in Hollywood Florida closed this morning that were open yesterday.

Quoting 1705. E46Pilot:



Not until there is a warning issued.
Quoting 1708. TampaShieldV1:

As expected last night, some of models have shifted slightly to the East within the 72 hour mark. 12z will most likely show the same as the models begin to near the reasonable time window. Watches should be up next advisory.


Some models shifted west such as the NAVGEM and HWRF. GFS went very slightly east but not more than 10 miles. GFDL the same and the UKMET goes inland now into FL. So track will stay the same or move just slightly more to the west at 11am. This is a very serious situation for FL infact Cape Canaveral might take a direct hit from Mathew.

BTW the Euro Ensembles are right up the East Coast of FL. So this could ride up the East Coast as well. Cat 3 to Cat 4 winds seem likely now across Brevard and Volusia County. Could even see hurricane force gusts in Orlando as Orlando isn't far from the coast.
Quoting 1713. weathermanwannabe:

Ms. Haley is probably doing the final touches on the hair and make-up before she holds the press conference to make the announcement; she needs to hurry up:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]




Port St. Lucie/Fort Pierce can get up to 7 inches of rain and have sustained winds of up to 70 mph with gusts up to 100 mph Thursday.
If warnings go up, I would shutter. The thing about this storm, the way it is approaching, just a 50 west jog can mean the difference of tropical storm to cat 3 winds.
Regarding shutters in South Florida. I live in Boynton Beach, I'll be closing my accordian shutters tomorrow evening after work, should the track stay as it is.

If you have to put up wood shutters, I'd start today as that is a significantly longer process.
1721. MahFL
Quoting 1687. weathermanwannabe:

Please consider donating to the International Red Cross when the storm clears Haiti


Why wait until the storm clears Haiti ?, donate now...
Everyone should feel free to send thoughts and prayers and whatever else to the people being impacted by Matthew if doing so makes them feel better. But *PLEASE* be practical, too, and ready your checkbooks to send money to one or more of the legitimate humanitarian and charitable organizations in place to help out. And don't send clothing or other hard goods until and unless specifically requested to do so; the quickest and easiest way to help is nearly always by sending in monetary donations, so be ready...
Jean Gabriel Fortune@jgabrielfortune 2 minutes ago
Ouragan Matthew fe anpil dega nan Okay , anpil Kay kraze, anpil vit kay eklate, jadin etc.fe mesaj yo pase pou popilasyon an ka fe atansyon

Translated from Haitian Creole by Bing

Hurricane Matthew did much damage in Les Cayes, many houses fell quickly broke out, House farming etc. do messages than for the population in the event of take care
Quoting 1701. JohnCaesar:

Anyone shuttering windows in Miami?


I'm in broward and will wait til Wednesday to decide, but I have accordion shutters, so it's easy for me to wait till the last minute.
Quoting 1714. connie1976:

Looks like it's gonna shift to the east away from FL


What is the rationale behind that statement? Link?
1727. Hugo5
Quoting 1698. DaytonaBeachWatcher:



Not completely crazy. Hurricane tend to bounce off of land at first impact.

Looks like the storm is wobbling around the peaks there. However, it also appears that the entire storm is trying to shift west a bit to stay off land, and a possible new eyewall replacement due to the impact. All of that will remain to be seen in the next few hours though.
Quoting 1715. win1gamegiantsplease:

Les Cayes is getting drilled with southeast winds. Looking at the coastline there water is likely piling up there and west.




last couple frames appear that the east trend has ended.... lets see what happens till 11 to say it is turning back to the west.... but I think the east trend was short lived....
Quoting 1723. Neapolitan:

Everyone should feel free to send thoughts and prayers and whatever else to the people being impacted by Matthew if doing so makes them feel better. But *PLEASE* be practical, too, and ready your checkbooks to send money to one or more of the legitimate humanitarian and charitable organizations in place to help out. And don't send clothing or other hard goods until and unless specifically requested to do so; the quickest and easiest way to help is nearly always by sending in monetary donations, so be ready...


Yes!
If models trend east today that would be great news. Matthews path will be tricky the next 48 hours because mountains and land masses can cause the circulation to do crazy things.
Quoting 1717. StormTrackerScott:



Some models shifted west such as the NAVGEM and HWRF. GFS went very slightly east but not more than 10 miles. GFDL the same and the UKMET goes inland now into FL. So track will stay the same or move just slightly more to the west at 11am. This is a very serious situation for FL infact Cape Canaveral might take a direct hit from Mathew.


Yikes.. That doesn't sound good at all. Starting to get nervous but well prepared
Quoting 1726. weatherxtreme:



What is the rationale behind that statement? Link?


I was looking at the models on the tropical weather page
Quoting 1716. CCK:

Saw many of the "built in" hurricane shutters on condos in Hollywood Florida closed this morning that were open yesterday.




That's just silly, takes all but 10 minutes to do those... takes me about 3 hours to do my home.
Question from a complete rookie here: With the shear size of Matthew; could it affect the weather patterns in the US? I know that the Jet Stream and Fronts are much larger in area and strength, but a weather system like Matthew...could it be a weather pattern changer?
Quoting 1717. StormTrackerScott:



Some models shifted west such as the NAVGEM and HWRF. GFS went very slightly east but not more than 10 miles. GFDL the same and the UKMET goes inland now into FL. So track will stay the same or move just slightly more to the west at 11am. This is a very serious situation for FL infact Cape Canaveral might take a direct hit from Mathew.


GFS has been the leader of the pack. Undoubtedly the most reliable model in this race. Any track changes on it, will be the key indicator of what to expect next model run.
1736. HarryMc
Quoting 1670. tiggeriffic:

Waiting still for State of Emergency to be posted for SC.....have em to the south (I know those come first) and have em to the north... I know the watches and warnings come with 48hrs and then 24-36 hours respectively..... but state of emergency is the little statement that preludes getting help...ie national guard, FEMA preparedness, leveling up on PSDs running late to get all garbage, limbs, etc before the storm, etc.....not ridiculing....just wondering what the hold off is

The NC state of emergency was primarily to lift the restrictions on farming loads, truck loads, and other restrictions aimed at farm equipment. They are trying to harvest asap working 24 hr/day many hundred millions of dollars of agricultural products that will be destroyed by rainfall from even a close call along the coast.
Keep in mind that running into a 7,000 foot mountain is also going to make Matt do some weird stuff.

Don't make assumptions about track until the entire eye is off of Haiti
Last night went to local Home Depot to buy a generator... all sold out. So went to another Home Depot, and we bought the last one. Here in Miami, people seem to be taking it seriously, I saw people buying shutters, plywood, and other supplies. Sending prayers to Haiti today.
Quoting 1736. HarryMc:


The NC state of emergency was primarily to lift the restrictions on farming loads, truck loads, and other restrictions aimed at farm equipment. They are trying to harvest asap working 24 hr/day many hundred millions of dollars of agricultural products that will be destroyed by rainfall from even a close call along the coast.



big agriculture here too.... cotton, soybean, etc....just in from the coast are fields as far as the eye can see.....
1740. joHS
re: Quoting 1717. StormTrackerScott:

Scott thank you for being here for us. Prayers to Bahamas and to Haiti.

South Florida Water Management District

Tropical Conditions Report

7:29AM Tuesday, October 04, 2016 (eps)



Current Conditions:


LOCAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS: None.

Tropical Storm Force or Greater Winds Within 48 Hours: No.





DISCUSSION:



At 5am, MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW was located near 17.8N 74.4W, or about 35 miles south of Tiburon, Haiti, moving north near 9 mph with sustained winds to 145 mph. Matthew is forecast to turn northwestward through the central and northwestern Bahamas as a major hurricane Wednesday and Thursday and then along the east coast of Florida Thursday evening and Friday. The current forecast track would bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the east coast of the District before noon Thursday and then the Kissimmee Valley Thursday evening with conditions improving Friday morning. Due to the uncertainty of the track, the threat of hurricane force winds over eastern and northern portions of the District Thursday night cannot be ruled out. Heavy rains of 2-6” are expected over eastern and northern portions of the District Thursday and Friday.

A low pressure system is generating thunderstorms about 400 miles north-northeast of the Leeward Islands. There is the potential for some development as this system moves generally northwestward over the next few days. This system is not expected to become a threat to the District.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.



NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE: Noon Tuesday
Latest GEFS have several members looping back SW into the Bahamas as a Major in 9 to 10 days. Not out of the question as there is a slight chance Mathew gets shoved back SW after this trough departs this weekend.

1742. nash36
Quoting 1713. weathermanwannabe:

Ms. Haley is probably doing the final touches on the hair and make-up before she holds the press conference to make the announcement; she needs to hurry up:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]




I understand not wanting to start a mass panic, and the need to be cautious, but we're getting down to crunch time, here. She needs to announce today.

It does not appear this one is going harmlessly out to sea. We're about as locked in with a "general" track as one can be. Slight shifts in either direction are probable, but at this stage, I do not see a complete 180.
Quoting 1704. rwdobson:



I'll keep it simple: no, it is not going to the gulf. Even with the westward shift, what we still have is a hurricane going north roughly parallel to the Atlantic coast.


Look with all due respect, You "Really" can't say that it will not come
into the Gulf.... Yes we all know the "Models" say it will stay off the
East Coast but there's "Always" a chance it could cross Florida
and come into the Gulf.... We have seen this happen many times,
and could happen again.....
Now I'm not saying it's "Going To Happen" but you just never know....
That High Pressure could send it right into the Gulf.... Nothing is set
in stone at this point....

Taco :o)
Can anyone tell me when the next model runs will be? Want to check back. Preparing here in St. Augustine. TIA
Videos starting to come out. Desperation in their voices.
From twitter:

#MatthewHaiti Les Cayes chez le Pasteur St Germain ce matin 6:30am
https://t.co/T7UgMEjZc8

Radio Television Caraibes
http://ow.ly/gcHV304PYgO
ok...out for a bit...bbl to ck in.... pharmacy is today.... prayers to those in the affected area, those in the path...and to those that will lose power before I am back, stay safe and praying for you too
Haiti is getting it bad. All those in the path of Matthew in the coming days I'm praying for you all as well, BAHA I hope you are getting your final preparations, stocked up on things and have a plan to stay safe. Here in Florida the concern is certainly growing and although I'm inland, I can clearly remember when I was little storms coming from the east Frances and Jeanne, France's knocked out power for 5 days and toppled trees and some power lines where I am at in 04. I do have a terrible feeling here Matt may not weaken at all and has potential to sustain being 4 or to become a 5 again over the next 3 days.
1749. HarryMc
Quoting 1739. tiggeriffic:



big agriculture here too.... cotton, soybean, etc....just in from the coast are fields as far as the eye can see.....

Yes. I grew up in Sumter and remember the huge fields of cotton and corn and soy beans. Lots of farming in SC.
Quoting 1711. Brock31:



I suppose, if there is a silver lining, that if we do go days without power after matthew, temperatures are supposed to be pretty nice. Past storms I've sat through have involved days and days of 90 humidity and misery. After all the rain we've had...any partridge will be laying on the ground along with all the pear trees...lol


Another benefit is I won't have to watch the giants get their butts kicked Sunday night.
Invest 98L
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 04, 2016:

Location: 23.5°N 60.0°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
Governor Deal also has yet to declare a state of emergency in Georgia. Of course, this won't really affect Atlanta, so I'm sure they don't really care up there.
Quoting 1733. E46Pilot:



That's just silly, takes all but 10 minutes to do those... takes me about 3 hours to do my home.

These are most likely condos that are unoccupied due to it being off-season for snowbirds, and being looked after by a building manager. Can't blame them for getting a head start.
Quoting 1734. Rescooter:

Question from a complete rookie here: With the shear size of Matthew; could it affect the weather patterns in the US? I know that the Jet Stream and Fronts are much larger in area and strength, but a weather system like Matthew...could it be a weather pattern changer?

E.g. warm air advection aloft may strengthen ridges to its E/NE. Changes the bent in the jet stream. So answer is yes, there is influence from tropical systems at (much) higher latitudes.
Link

Is the ridge to the east starting to "relax" a bit? It appears from the latest water vapor loop that at least at its northern periphery it may begin drifting back away from CONUS.
1757. Mikla
IR of Landfall
Serious stuff... hoping for the best.
1758. wpb
Quoting 1718. rmbjoe1954:



Port St. Lucie/Fort Pierce can get up to 7 inches of rain and have sustained winds of up to 70 mph with gusts up to 100 mph Thursday.
depending if center crosses the coast there.if it passes off shore u can cut those numbers in half. forecast to pass off shore by 75-100 miles
Quoting 1723. Neapolitan:

Everyone should feel free to send thoughts and prayers and whatever else to the people being impacted by Matthew if doing so makes them feel better. But *PLEASE* be practical, too, and ready your checkbooks to send money to one or more of the legitimate humanitarian and charitable organizations in place to help out. And don't send clothing or other hard goods until and unless specifically requested to do so; the quickest and easiest way to help is nearly always by sending in monetary donations, so be ready...


About six weeks after the Haiti earthquake, I got a call from a guy who had organized his employees to collect for Haitians what came to be a 20 ft container of....wait for it.....winter coats ...

Another well meaning group collected 10, 000.....10,000 ....dirty old tennis shoes.....all that stuff is sitting in a landfill somewhere....


vs 6Z

1761. wpb
Quoting 1756. LesBonsTemps:

Link

Is the ridge to the east starting to "relax" a bit? It appears from the latest water vapor loop that at least at its northern periphery it may begin drifting back away from CONUS.12z model runs will have all of this in there output
Quoting 1744. NEFLWATCHING:

Can anyone tell me when the next model runs will be? Want to check back. Preparing here in St. Augustine. TIA


They vary throughout the day depending on what model.
Quoting 1742. nash36:



I understand not wanting to start a mass panic, and the need to be cautious, but we're getting down to crunch time, here. She needs to announce today.

It does not appear this one is going harmlessly out to sea. We're about as locked in with a "general" track as one can be. Slight shifts in either direction are probable, but at this stage, I do not see a complete 180.


I would say that SC is most at risk at present based on the track; in fairness to the Governor, it is still several days away but given a Saturday time frame, it would be nice to give folks a chance to get supplies in advance just in case and to close down government offices and schools on Thursday if the current track holds by tomorrow.
I found an article about an organization called "New Story" in Haiti that some people might want to consider for donations. The article says that they have had more success than other groups at building low-cost homes. Apparently 100% of donations go to home building. They fund-raise separately for administrative costs. Best.

http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/topstory-Commenta ry%3A-Is-Silicon-Valley%27s-New-Story-startup-lead ing-Haiti%27s-affordable-home-market%3F-32038.html
We had a pretty nasty line of storms come through Miami Beach last night, rained for about an hour or so, clogging the storm drains and creating ponding and street flooding. Not a great test run for a lot of rain over an extended period...
1766. aquak9
hi Ya'll from Jacksonville

Go out and take pictures of your home, your trees, your surrounding area-
go ahead and get it documented now...

before, well, you know....
1767. Hugo5
Quoting 1743. taco2me61:



Look with all due respect, You "Really" can't say that it will not come
into the Gulf.... Yes we all know the "Models" say it will stay off the
East Coast but there's "Always" a chance it could cross Florida
and come into the Gulf.... We have seen this happen many times,
and could happen again.....
Now I'm not saying it's "Going To Happen" but you just never know....
That High Pressure could send it right into the Gulf.... Nothing is set
in stone at this point....

Taco :o)


Taco,

I agree with RWB on this one. Nothing supports a Gulf entrance for hurricane Matthew except radical speculation. while I try to respect all points of view on the blog, I feel this does not provide any useful direction in the forecasting of this system. Attacking another member on the general point of view from all current models that it would not go into the gulf does not encourage constructive discussion either.
1768. LargoFl

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical
storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
inland Haiti near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 74.2 West. Matthew
made landfall near Les Anglais about 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC). The
hurricane is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On this track the eye
of Matthew will be back over water in the Gulf of Gonave in the next
hour or so, and then move over the Windward Passage later this
morning. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by
Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the eye of Matthew will move near eastern Cuba later
today, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern
Bahamas Wednesday night

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are already affecting the southwestern
portion of Haiti, and these conditions will spread northward today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today,
the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the
remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the
southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Quoting 1759. presslord:



About six weeks after the Haiti earthquake, I got a call from a guy who had organized his employees to collect for Haitians what came to be a 20 ft container of....wait for it.....winter coats ...

Another well meaning group collected 10, 000.....10,000 ....dirty old tennis shoes.....all that stuff is sitting in a landfill somewhere....



Quoting 1763. weathermanwannabe:



I would say that SC is most at risk at present based on the track; in fairness to the Governor, it is still several days away but given a Saturday time frame, it would be nice to give folks a chance to get supplies in advance just in case and to close down government offices and school on Thursday if the current track holds by tomorrow.

1771. AVL
Video out of Haiti

https://twitter.com/jgabrielfortune/status/783277 120764207104

https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/78327481 5654420481
MLB NWS impact weather graphic is looking pretty doom today..
What are the chances of this cone shifting more west?
Quoting 1728. tiggeriffic:



last couple frames appear that the east trend has ended.... lets see what happens till 11 to say it is turning back to the west.... but I think the east trend was short lived....


I wouldn't read too much into any short term motion as the center interacts with land, especially with the mountains in that area. I anticipate the NNE motion to resume shortly, and the center to slide right up the Windward Passage.
I sincerely hope that the Inagua Islands are ready, looks to be the eyewall's next stop
Quoting 1766. aquak9:

hi Ya'll from Jacksonville

Go out and take pictures of your home, your trees, your surrounding area-
go ahead and get it documented now...

before, well, you know....


Hi, in Jax too and was wondering if I should take pictures of everything just in case as you never know what could happen. Maybe I will do the same.
I have a question. If the ridge starts to ultimately become weaker, would that mean a more bigger threat for the Northeast?
Quoting 1773. Terri2003:

What are the chances of this cone shifting more west?
Medium.
Quoting 1767. Hugo5:



Taco,

I agree with RWB on this one. Nothing supports a Gulf entrance for hurricane Matthew except radical speculation. while I try to respect all points of view on the blog, I feel this does not provide any useful direction in the forecasting of this system. Attacking another member on the general point of view from all current models that it would not go into the gulf does not encourage constructive discussion either.


I was not "Attacking Anyone" I was just saying that nothing was out of the woods for say....
I hope he didn't think I would even do that.... I was just saying that it could not saying it Would....


Taco :o)
Quoting 1777. HurricaneAndre:

Medium.


Thanks.
Jean Gabriel Fortuné ‏@jgabrielfortune 4m

In the area of vernet with cameraman the mayors Office in Les Cayes @Duplesplymouth on the amount of damage we begin observed in the city.#HurricaneMatthew


Quoting 1743. taco2me61:



Look with all due respect, You "Really" can't say that it will not come
into the Gulf.... Yes we all know the "Models" say it will stay off the
East Coast but there's "Always" a chance it could cross Florida
and come into the Gulf.... We have seen this happen many times,
and could happen again.....
Now I'm not saying it's "Going To Happen" but you just never know....
That High Pressure could send it right into the Gulf.... Nothing is set
in stone at this point....

Taco :o)


How about this: there is not the slightest bit of evidence to suggest it will go into the gulf. None.
1783. wpb
winds on the left side or west side of the center much less.
fla will be on the weak side
the forecast track only shows gusty winds that may reach
ts force in passing rainbands south of palm beach,
unless the models jump more west no need for shutters
Quoting 1760. GeoffreyWPB:



vs 6Z

img
src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L _tracks_06z.png" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">


No shift east or west, just consolidation of moels.
Quoting 1754. Dutchlady:


These are most likely condos that are unoccupied due to it being off-season for snowbirds, and being looked after by a building manager. Can't blame them for getting a head start.


ahhh true, I didn't think of that
1786. wpb
Quoting 1776. Kareem0125:

I have a question. If the ridge starts to ultimately become weaker, would that mean a more bigger threat for the Northeast?
ots
1787. aquak9
Quoting 1767. Hugo5:


Taco,

I agree with RWB on this one. Nothing supports a Gulf entrance for hurricane Matthew except radical speculation. while I try to respect all points of view on the blog, I feel this does not provide any useful direction in the forecasting of this system. Attacking another member on the general point of view from all current models that it would not go into the gulf does not encourage constructive discussion either.


Taco is a well-respected blogger who, buy all counts, has added much more than quoted poster here.
He did not attack the other blogger. I'll take ten of his posts any day, for any reason. He's respectful and although most may not agree with what he said- well hell, no one woulda agreed w/me if I'da said there was ANY possibility of a major scraping up the East coast.

Peace
Quoting 1765. FEMAroadwarrior:

We had a pretty nasty line of storms come through Miami Beach last night, rained for about an hour or so, clogging the storm drains and creating ponding and street flooding. Not a great test run for a lot of rain over an extended period...


On the other side of the state here in Bradenton there was 7 inches of rain in spots over the last few days due to some nasty afternoon storms. We got hit pretty bad rainwise from Hermine as well. We are watching closely here too on the west coast of Florida as a small deviation of 30 miles west in course projection will mean the difference of a breezy afternoon or a full fledged tropical storm or hurricane conditions in parts of the Tampa Bay area
Quoting 1760. GeoffreyWPB:



vs 6Z




Might shift the cone taking most of Dade out of the cone at 11 am.
Quoting 1773. Terri2003:

What are the chances of this cone shifting more west?


Very slim as the likelyhood of the model consensus continues to move east in the near term. Expect no track changes at 11am, but at 5pmwe will begin to the cone move away from FL.
1791. SC29483
Quoting 1763. weathermanwannabe:



I would say that SC is most at risk at present based on the track; in fairness to the Governor, it is still several days away but given a Saturday time frame, it would be nice to give folks a chance to get supplies in advance just in case and to close down government offices and schools on Thursday if the current track holds by tomorrow.

I THINK state and regional emergency entities are meeting at 11am.
If they call for evacuations at the coast, it can take 15 hours to drive to Augusta, Georgia (normally a 3 hour drive).  There just aren't a lot of places to host evacuees and we're not prepared for that kind of traffic. 
Latest shots from RAMMB; looks like the Haitian mountains are causing some disruption in the eye wall on the right side:




Gonna have to shift the top of the cone left

Quoting 1758. wpb:

depending if center crosses the coast there.if it passes off shore u can cut those numbers in half. forecast to pass off shore by 75-100 miles


That doesn't make sense. If it made landfall there as a category three you would have gusts in excess of 125 mph
Quoting 1782. rwdobson:



How about this: there is not the slightest bit of evidence to suggest it will go into the gulf. None.
yep...rember elania? it wasnt going here either
Models did not shift east this morning, they are just coming into an agreement of a persistant track.
1799. Hugo5
Quoting 1778. taco2me61:



I was not "Attacking Anyone" I was just saying that nothing was out of the woods for say....
I hope he didn't think I would even do that.... I was just saying that it could not saying it Would....


Taco :o)


Taco,

While most models have shifted the storms path the the west slightly over the last few days and have come to better agreement of the path, there is still not support for the idea that the storm could end up in the GOM. While there is no way to set this in stone, as you have said, it does not promote a good dialog to going against a good agreement among some of the most accurate forecasting models we have. I have in the past as well critizied said models due to the fact that they can not calculate everything, Solar and lunar tidal forces, solar output radiation and the known effects on Ocean temperatures to name a few. Having said that it would still not give me the right to disagree with them, and in fact i have agreement that it will hit the US east coast somewhere between northern FL and NC. Unfortunately it is still to far out to determine where this land strike may occur.
Parts of Haiti were already flooded 9hrs before landfall.

#Chardonnières #Haiti on the South coast in critical condition right now. Homes are destroyed according to @AngeloRomelus #MatthewHaiti



Possibility that the High is weakening? Thinking tracks will shift East today? Anybody seeing this?
Quoting 1773. Terri2003:

What are the chances of this cone shifting more west?


Not likely according to the current computer models. The cone looks just about right where it is.
Quoting 1743. taco2me61:



Look with all due respect, You "Really" can't say that it will not come
into the Gulf.... Yes we all know the "Models" say it will stay off the
East Coast but there's "Always" a chance it could cross Florida
and come into the Gulf.... We have seen this happen many times,
and could happen again.....
Now I'm not saying it's "Going To Happen" but you just never know....
That High Pressure could send it right into the Gulf.... Nothing is set
in stone at this point....

Taco :o)


The only way that high could send it into the gulf is if Matt get's knocked down to a CAT 1 or less, and even then it would be questionable. Otherwise he's going to be too strong to move that far west.

As it is the only reason he's pulling as far west is because the model's think his trip over Haiti/Cuba will knock him down enough to be pulled NW. Given the model's past performance on intensity and land interaction they could very well end up being wrong on that. If he still maintains strength, he'll be able to keep his course more northward which may keep him far enough off the coast to avoid the worst. If he doesn't, or even weakens more than expected he's going to head more west.

That's why others (including myself) are reluctant to agree with the models until after he makes it past Cuba.

Of course, everyone should be prepared and watchful.
Matthews center about to move back over water
1805. Hugo5
Quoting 1787. aquak9:



Taco is a well-respected blogger who, buy all counts, has added much more than quoted poster here.
He did not attack the other blogger. I'll take ten of his posts any day, for any reason. He's respectful and although most may not agree with what he said- well hell, no one woulda agreed w/me if I'da said there was ANY possibility of a major scraping up the East coast.

Peace

Please read last below post of mine.
Quoting 1790. TampaShieldV1:



Very slim as the likelyhood of the model consensus continues to move east in the near term. Expect no track changes at 11am, but at 5pmwe will begin to the cone move away from FL.


No, majority of models didnt shift, just coming into line. Dont expect a big shift west or east. The models finally have it pinned down.
We don't seem to learn from history. Before Hugo there were islands in the Charleston area that were uninhabited. During Hugo our tidal surge stretched from Charleston 6' deep to Myrtle beach 6' deep with a max. around Georgetown -midway of about 30' deep. After Hugo contractors raced into all these areas that had been under 15' of water and built right down to the waters edge. It is unfortunate enough to be caught by a natural disaster without increasing the risk, but, it seems that greed is a bigger factor than common sense.

It's over that 7700 ft mtn area..
Quoting 1797. Tampa969mlb:

yep...rember elania? it wasnt going here either


Yeah, and except for those NAVGEM runs yesterday, that brought it straight over Tampa and into....the Gulf.
But that was just the Navy, right?
These are all just opinions. Why there is such a need to criticize escapes me.
Quoting 1759. presslord:



About six weeks after the Haiti earthquake, I got a call from a guy who had organized his employees to collect for Haitians what came to be a 20 ft container of....wait for it.....winter coats ...

Another well meaning group collected 10, 000.....10,000 ....dirty old tennis shoes.....all that stuff is sitting in a landfill somewhere....


Yeah, because winter coats can never be used for blankets and old tennis shoes are a horrible substitute for bare feet.
Guantanamo Bay radar:


Quoting 1783. wpb:

winds on the left side or west side of the center much less.
fla will be on the weak side
the forecast track only shows gusty winds that may reach
ts force in passing rainbands south of palm beach,
unless the models jump more west no need for shutters

Isn't the wind field expanding? We are being told to expect hurricane conditions by Thursday night.
Guantanamo Bay long range weather radar picking up the eye of Matthew in the latest 1300Z loop.



Guantanamo's ARSR-4 is picking up the eye as well.

Quoting 1808. Starhopper:


It's over that 7700 ft mtn area..


the core is self is about too move back over water
You're looking at a forecast that's 108 hours out (for a tropical cyclone). Even if that verifies, SC is on the west side of a system over 100 miles away moving quickly and away from it. Should she really declare a state of emergency every time the state might get 2 inches of rain and 30 mph wind gusts in 4 days?

She's probably just more knowledgable about tropical weather than you. Or can girls only be good at looking pretty?


Quoting 1713. weathermanwannabe:

Ms. Haley is probably doing the final touches on the hair and make-up before she holds the press conference to make the announcement; she needs to hurry up:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


Woah..

Sauce: LINK
Riviére Grise en crue #MatthewHaiti


Agree with a comment earlier from another Blogger that we need to wait until the storm clears Hispanola to see how much weakening occurs and whether that will impact how the models re-initialize in the runs tomorrow. If the general rule of weaker to the West still applies, I would think that the tracks could shift a little to the West if the storm emerges on weak side into the Bahamas......................Too close for comfort either way.
1819. nash36
Quoting 1790. TampaShieldV1:



Very slim as the likelyhood of the model consensus continues to move east in the near term. Expect no track changes at 11am, but at 5pmwe will begin to the cone move away from FL.


No, it doesn't. The model consensus is pretty much where it was last night.
1820. 7000ppm
Quoting 1800. lopaka001:

Parts of Haiti were already flooded 9hrs before landfall.

#Chardonnières #Haiti on the South coast in critical condition right now. Homes are destroyed according to @AngeloRomelus #MatthewHaiti




The people taking those images are in grave danger: they took the pictures while the huge eye of Matthew was still above them!

The southern eyewall is only coming ashore in Chardonnieres about now ....
Quoting 1767. Hugo5:



Taco,

I agree with RWB on this one. Nothing supports a Gulf entrance for hurricane Matthew except radical speculation. while I try to respect all points of view on the blog, I feel this does not provide any useful direction in the forecasting of this system. Attacking another member on the general point of view from all current models that it would not go into the gulf does not encourage constructive discussion either.


May we ask what, in his post, would you have considered an attack on the other? While the chance is extremely low, nothing is an absolute certainty until the threat is most certainly gone. So I agree with taco... mmm tacos...
Quoting 1814. thetwilightzone:



the core is self is about too move back over water

Yup, looks like it got disrupted somewhat I notice too


Found this and was looking at more models all looking the same.
1824. IDTH
Morning everyone. Looks like Haiti got the worst case scenario as Matthew completed his EWRC just before landfall. It could be a close call for eastern Cuba in terms of landfall but if it doesn't interact with those mountains, I'm afraid we could be seeing almost no weakening at all and in fact could be dealing with a stronger storm.

This is unfortunate for my family and friends because it looks like they could get the very brunt of the Hurricane in Wilmington. Those in the Bahamas are preparing for the worst and everyone along the south east coast must do the same. Remember it's better to be safe rather than sorry.

Wish I had better news to wake up to.
Quoting 1802. E46Pilot:



Not likely according to the current computer models. The cone looks just about right where it is.


Top of the cone should shift left slightly, as the consensus models have shifted left due to the HWRF and UKMET.
Just because the GFS shifted east by 10 miles... Look at the trend of all models, nothing shifted east or west this morning.
1827. nash36
Quoting 1816. SouthMSamateur:

You're looking at a forecast that's 108 hours out (for a tropical cyclone). Even if that verifies, SC is on the west side of a system over 100 miles away moving quickly and away from it. Should she really declare a state of emergency every time the state might get 2 inches of rain and 30 mph wind gusts in 4 days?

She's probably just more knowledgable about tropical weather than you. Or can girls only be good at looking pretty?





What an absolutely inane comment. You do realize that a major hurricane, 50 miles offshore, will have serious impacts to the coast, as well as inland?

Of course you do.
Quoting 1788. westFLtropics:



On the other side of the state here in Bradenton there was 7 inches of rain in spots over the last few days due to some nasty afternoon storms. We got hit pretty bad rainwise from Hermine as well. We are watching closely here too on the west coast of Florida as a small deviation of 30 miles west in course projection will mean the difference of a breezy afternoon or a full fledged tropical storm or hurricane conditions in parts of the Tampa Bay area
Indeed. It is so soggy here. Water table is yet again at the very surface.
1830. Hugo5
Quoting 1812. SecretStormNerd:


Isn't the wind field expanding? We are being told to expect hurricane conditions by Thursday night.


Secret,

The wind field did appear to expand prior to the storms land fall on Haiti. This occurred to the recent eyewall replacement. Recon is out over the storm right now, and it is still to early to say how far out the tropical or hurricane force winds will be due to the interaction with land. Once the storm has moved away from both Cuba and Haiti forcasters should be able to get a better idea.
any idea on how tent city is doing in haiti
Quoting 1799. Hugo5:



Taco,

While most models have shifted the storms path the the west slightly over the last few days and have come to better agreement of the path, there is still not support for the idea that the storm could end up in the GOM. While there is no way to set this in stone, as you have said, it does not promote a good dialog to going against a good agreement among some of the most accurate forecasting models we have. I have in the past as well critizied said models due to the fact that they can not calculate everything, Solar and lunar tidal forces, solar output radiation and the known effects on Ocean temperatures to name a few. Having said that it would still not give me the right to disagree with them, and in fact i have agreement that it will hit the US east coast somewhere between northern FL and NC. Unfortunately it is still to far out to determine where this land strike may occur.

I so Agree with this and I also understand this more than you know....
I hope you all did not think I was "Saying" it was coming into the Gulf....
I was just saying that it Could..... Models are only as good as what
Information is put into it, and the Models are very Good for "3" Days.
But after that it could be "Anywhere" in that Cone.... I also know that
SC/NC is the Target and I feel that's where it's going..... But to say the Gulf
is Out???? I would not say that just yet....
Now that's just my "Opinion" and you can take it for what it's worth....

Taco :o)
Quoting 1807. Graydog250:

We don't seem to learn from history. Before Hugo there were islands in the Charleston area that were uninhabited. During Hugo our tidal surge stretched from Charleston 6' deep to Myrtle beach 6' deep with a max. around Georgetown -midway of about 30' deep. After Hugo contractors raced into all these areas that had been under 15' of water and built right down to the waters edge. It is unfortunate enough to be caught by a natural disaster without increasing the risk, but, it seems that greed is a bigger factor than common sense.


At least SC has a somewhat recent gauge of the bar set. NC gets hit more often by storms, but not usually a major, no less someting to the strength of Hugo.
Guantanamo Bay Radar!

Link
Quoting 1808. Starhopper:


It's over that 7700 ft mtn area..


Fortunately for the storm the 7,700 ft mountain is just that, a mountain. It's not miles and miles of mountains that could destroy a storm. Unfortunately for folks downstream, this mountain and whatever interaction Cuba has on it will help expand the wind field for the storm. Meaning even larger and powerful hurricane moving into the Bahamas.
All the gulf wishacasters give it a rest your not getting this one and I don't care what underfunded under performing model your staring at so keep staring
As far as the westward trend it's westward for now 

Wishcasters go and watch the storm with Jim Cantore on The Weather Channel


1816. SouthMSamateur
9:08 AM EDT on October 04, 2016

Both of my girls are pretty, and smart, and one graduated from Yale last year but I see the gist your comment..........I apologize if I offended any of the Women bloggers. Does not change my personal opinion as to Ms. Haley as a very lackluster Governor.
Quoting 1806. reedzone:



No, majority of models didnt shift, just coming into line. Dont expect a big shift west or east. The models finally have it pinned down.

Absolutely correct Reed. Also important to note that all the models are still WEST of the NHC official track. Link
Here in Palm Beach co. I don't know if I am more worried about the impact of the hurricane or the aftermath having to deal with the broke insurance companies...

Currently I see a 20% chance or less, of Hurricane force winds anywhere in Florida. The reality of the moment.
Bloggers - Any idea on if there will be another shift westward - that ridge appears to be weakening some - Here in Broward County we are all waiting with baited breath....and if you think the models will shift west - by how much (in your best guess) -- I am new to the blog - love the science behind it!
Quoting 1816. SouthMSamateur:

You're looking at a forecast that's 108 hours out (for a tropical cyclone). Even if that verifies, SC is on the west side of a system over 100 miles away moving quickly and away from it. Should she really declare a state of emergency every time the state might get 2 inches of rain and 30 mph wind gusts in 4 days?

She's probably just more knowledgable about tropical weather than you. Or can girls only be good at looking pretty?






Hahahahahahahahahahaha funniest thing I maybe ever heard


Quoting 1778. taco2me61:



I was not "Attacking Anyone" I was just saying that nothing was out of the woods for say....
I hope he didn't think I would even do that.... I was just saying that it could not saying it Would....


Taco :o)


Hi, everyone. I'm a loooong-time lurker up in WPB. I wanted to tell everyone how much I appreciate this blog! Unlike other folks in my neighborhood, I wasn't caught off guard with the westward trend, thanks to everyone's commentary here.

I wanted to post (in Taco's defense) that tweets like this one keep my Florida spidey sense on guard. Not that the gulf is in play, but a lot more of Florida is. Always better to be prepared. (And with that, I will vanish again to prepare some more. :-) )


Quoting 1838. wunderkidwx:


Absolutely correct Reed. Also important to note that all the models are still WEST of the NHC official track. Link

20% chance of hurricane force winds.
Powerful thunderstorms are moving toward eastern Cuba from the south!
Sauce: LINK

Grand Anse
Quoting 1836. toddbizz:

All the gulf wishacasters give it a rest your not getting this one and I don't care what underfunded under performing model your staring at so keep staring
As far as the westward trend it's westward for now 

Wishcasters go and watch the storm with Jim Cantore on The Weather Channel





LOL...so because someone (me?) points to ONE model that shows a possibility of what another blogger posted...I'm a "wishcaster"? Rest assured, I have absolutely ZERO wishes for this thing to come anywhere near the GOM, or anywhere near the SE coast for that matter.
1848. IDTH
Quoting 1818. weathermanwannabe:

Agree with a comment earlier from another Blogger that we need to wait until the storm clears Hispanola to see how much weakening occurs and whether that will impact how the models re-initialize in the runs tomorrow. If the general rule of weaker to the West still applies, I would think that the tracks could shift a little to the West if the storm emerges on weak side into the Bahamas......................Too close for comfort either way.

i really wasnt so much worried when Matt-dawg only had a small core with hurricane force winds. Now, that has changed. If it comes within 100 miles of the coastline and still turns, there is life threatening danger for another 100 miles inland (or more]. i live 8 miles from the MYR coast AND WILL EVACUATE, if it Cat3 & UPPPPP!!!
Quoting 1765. FEMAroadwarrior:

We had a pretty nasty line of storms come through Miami Beach last night, rained for about an hour or so, clogging the storm drains and creating ponding and street flooding. Not a great test run for a lot of rain over an extended period...


That is SOP in and about Miami. I cannot count how many flood cases I litigated in Dade that came from nothing more than a rainstorm and poor drainage. I would have at least 5-10 at any time. If Miami gets a serious pounding for any kind of extended time, I expect significant flooding.
If you live in South Carolina, this link shows all of the the SC Coastal Evacuation Routes per the Dept. of Transportation. LinkLink

This link provides EXCELLENT information for South Carolina coastal residents regarding Hurricane Shelters, evacuation routes, hotel information, contact information and other good info that may be useful.
LinkLink

This is also an excellent link, to the South Carolina SC.GOV "Emergencies and Disasters" site. It also provides shelter information, evacuation info, contact #'s and helpful information that may be very useful.
LinkLink
not a trend (yet), but looking more and more like the eye will cross over the mountains in eastern Cuba as well.
Quoting 1851. RetainingH2O:

If you live in South Carolina, this link shows all of the the SC Coastal Evacuation Routes per the Dept. of Transportation. Link

This link provides EXCELLENT information for South Carolina coastal residents regarding Hurricane Shelters, evacuation routes, hotel information, contact information and other good info that may be useful.
Link

This is also an excellent link, to the South Carolina SC.GOV "Emergencies and Disasters" site. It also provides shelter information, evacuation info, contact #'s and helpful information that may be very useful.
Link


No active links?
Quoting 1757. Mikla:

IR of Landfall
Serious stuff... hoping for the best.

Wow, looks like Matthew strengthened a bit just as it came on shore. Those poor people.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1794. weathermanwannabe:

Latest shots from RAMMB; looks like the Haitian mountains are causing some disruption in the eye wall on the right side:







It's got that "buzzsaw" look.
1857. kwad


Having just experience the passage of TS Matthew, what effect would this system (not an Invest) have on the island of St Lucia? The ground is already saturated. Would there be any possible damages like flooding and landslides from this system?
Quoting 1826. reedzone:

Just because the GFS shifted east by 10 miles... Look at the trend of all models, nothing shifted east or west this morning.


True, but Its still encouraging that the model trend west of the past few days seems to have stopped for now.
Topography lesson. Eye is gone over the 7,700 ft mountain on bottom right of screen, with Eastern Cuba mountains to it's N and NW

good morning all. just a couple comments about the blog. I see some members are getting a bit testy. That comes when your in the path and there's a lot to worry about. Can we keep the bickering down? Also when the blog backs up PLEASE PLEASE we do not need 40 comments that "it took 20 minuets for my post to show up". If your in the cone make your preps and please be safe. Look out for downed power lines .
1861. IDTH
New blog, ABANDON!
Quoting 1716. CCK:

Saw many of the "built in" hurricane shutters on condos in Hollywood Florida closed this morning that were open yesterday.




Hollywood, FL???? Built in hurricane shutters already closed???? Not surprising at all. Probably belong to snowbirds that haven't come down yet and maintenance crews are getting that task out of the way ahead of time so that they can focus on more urgent matters as they come up.
1864. Grothar




No doubt there will also be multiple reports of tropical spawned tornadoes all along the coast as the bands approach.
What makes it better (not sure if you're still in or around the area) is the millions of dollars that have been spent over the last couple of years tearing up the roads and installing giant pumps to try and keep water out of the streets. None of that matters if you don't clean the storm drains.

When Sandy came through the Bahamas (Pre-Pumpalooza) we had two feet of water in the streets in some places and nary a cloud in the sky. Fingers crossed and I'll try to upload some pics as we go through it if possible.

Quoting 1850. NOLALawyer:



That is SOP in and about Miami. I cannot count how many flood cases I litigated in Dade that came from nothing more than a rainstorm and poor drainage. I would have at least 5-10 at any time. If Miami gets a serious pounding for any kind of extended time, I expect significant flooding.
Hurricane Matthew is pounding Haiti.

Prayers for everyone affected by this powerful hurricane.

Cuba and the Bahamas are next. And then, the SE USA.

98L is possibly going to become Tropical Storm Nicole!

It is Oct 4th, and the Atlantic basin is still active.

On this date in 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in NW Florida.

1995 was the beginning of the current "active phase" in the Atlantic Basin.

21 years later, it continues to be active, since we are already on our 13th named storm, and might get our 14th named tropical storm form very soon.

Recently there was a slowdown 2013-2015, fewer hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin, but we still had 13 named tropical storms in 2013 and 11 formed in 2015.
Quoting 1807. Graydog250:

We don't seem to learn from history. Before Hugo there were islands in the Charleston area that were uninhabited. During Hugo our tidal surge stretched from Charleston 6' deep to Myrtle beach 6' deep with a max. around Georgetown -midway of about 30' deep. After Hugo contractors raced into all these areas that had been under 15' of water and built right down to the waters edge. It is unfortunate enough to be caught by a natural disaster without increasing the risk, but, it seems that greed is a bigger factor than common sense.
Did they build elevated? My town, a barrier island, Seaside Heights, NJ, got pummeled in Sandy. Now all the structures are being elevated and new construction has to be elevated.
1869. ncstorm
Latest Briefing from NWS, Wilmington, NC



**Specific details on impacts are difficult to determine at this time given the uncertainty in the track, however, given the latest advisory a possibility exists for high impacts. Impacts would begin Fri and persist into Sat before improving Sun.

Marine/Coastal–Extreme impacts are possible with very large waves, dangerous boating/shipping and surf
conditions, and the potential for significant erosion. Inlet entrances will be especially hazardous as well.

Wind–A direct, or near hit, would bring high wind impacts to the area with the potential for some structural
and roof damage, downed trees and power lines with widespread/lengthy power outages. Wind impacts would
be less if the storm tracks farther off the coast.

Surge-A direct, or near hit, would bring high surge impacts to the area with the potential for storm surge
inundation accentuated by large battering waves. Any inundation would impact vulnerable low-
lying homes along the coast. Sections of coastal roads could become flooded & aids to navigation may become off station or missing.

Flooding–Many areas are saturated from recent heavy rainfall. Additional heavy rainfall would lead to flash
flooding. Some rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks. Many roads may become flooded as well,
with the potential for road failures. The delivery of drinking water and sewer services may be impacted.
1870. Grothar
Quoting 1831. thetwilightzone:

any idea on how tent city is doing in haiti
Tent vs. 100kt+ multi-hour sustained wind = no more tent, no more shack. There where supposed to be shelters set up but as to the ability to get to them after a day of 20+ inches of rain and the general state of their roads, if you did not live within a few miles of a shelter, not good.

Here a link to a Face Book video in Les Cayes shot an hour ago Link
Quoting 1868. popartpete:

Did they build elevated? My town, a barrier island, Seaside Heights, NJ, got pummeled in Sandy. Now all the structures are being elevated and new construction has to be elevated.



Not to answer for him, but yes, homes built after Hugo are generally set back further as elevated. There are quite a few beaches that have disappeared over the years and the homes are precariously close to the ocean. Edisto and the beaches just to the north of Georgetown are good examples.
1873. Grothar
Quoting 1836. toddbizz:

All the gulf wishacasters give it a rest your not getting this one and I don't care what underfunded under performing model your staring at so keep staring
As far as the westward trend it's westward for now 

Wishcasters go and watch the storm with Jim Cantore on The Weather Channel





LOL!
It's
Quoting 1816. SouthMSamateur:

You're looking at a forecast that's 108 hours out (for a tropical cyclone). Even if that verifies, SC is on the west side of a system over 100 miles away moving quickly and away from it. Should she really declare a state of emergency every time the state might get 2 inches of rain and 30 mph wind gusts in 4 days?

She's probably just more knowledgable about tropical weather than you. Or can girls only be good at looking pretty?




Ok. So, I'm in my senior year of my neuroscience major. I guess that qualifies me as dumb.
Quoting 1848. IDTH:





That image, unfortunately, doesn't look significantly weaker.

Also, do you have a link on where to find those images?
1877. K8eCane
Quoting 1839. bocawind:

Here in Palm Beach co. I don't know if I am more worried about the impact of the hurricane or the aftermath having to deal with the broke insurance companies...



broke insurance companies = oxymoron
Nicole another straight-to-Tropical Storm in 2016!
Quoting 1877. K8eCane:




broke insurance companies = oxymoron


They have to carry re-insurance. Imaging a prolonged coastal hugging of a major across 3 states could test some of those. Not certain that track would verify yet though.
1880. Dakster
Many insurance companies have and will fail this time as well. Surplus lines don't have to carry reinsurance.

Citizens will have to take the brunt of policies (again) and will potentially take a huge loss which means insurance rates will rise. I don't understand why they don't create a rainy day fund and spend all the premiums they get. Actually, I do understand, it's called the big wigs want fat salaries.
The lower half of figure 2, credited to Ruth Chervil was actually taken by me last year when I surveyed the damage caused by the tail end of Hurricane Joachim.
Quoting 1864. Grothar:








this projection keeps center well offshore