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Hurricane Matthew Now a Category 4 After Topping Out at Category 5 Strength

By: Jeff Masters 3:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2016

Hurricane Matthew weakened slightly on Saturday morning to a still-ferocious Category 4 storm after topping out Friday night as the Atlantic’s first Category 5 storm in nine years. Matthew put on a spectacular and wholly unexpected display of rapid intensification on Friday, strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in a remarkably short period of time—just 36 hours. It’s a good thing this unexpected rapid intensification burst did not occur as the hurricane was approaching landfall in a heavily populated area, with a population unprepared for a catastrophic hurricane strike. There have been other storms that have intensified even more rapidly from tropical storm strength to Category 5 than Matthew, though. For comparison, Hurricane Wilma of 2005 and Hurricane Patricia of 2015 accomplished the feat in 24 hours; Hurricane Felix of 2007 did it in 30 hours; Hurricane Rita of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did it in 36 hours; and the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 did so in 42 hours.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Matthew.

What made Matthew’s rapid intensification so surprising was that it occurred despite the presence of strong upper-level winds out of the southwest that created high wind shear of 20 knots. The NHC official forecast and the intensity models failed to predict Matthew’s rapid intensification—though the SHIPS model did give a 12% chance that we would see intensification into a Category 5 hurricane. We don’t have much data over ocean areas to be able to diagnose the detailed flow pattern around the core of a hurricane, and it is likely the shear was actually much lower near Matthew’s center, which allowed the storm to organize more quickly than our models anticipated. The rapid intensification process was also aided by the fact Matthew was moving into a moister atmosphere—the upper-level winds hitting Matthew from the southwest were advecting in air that had high humidity, which did not disrupt the storm like low humidity air would have done.

Another surprise regarding Matthew’s rapid intensification was that the central pressure that supported the Category 5 winds of the storm was relatively high—941 mb. Category 5 storms usually have pressures quite a bit lower. According to meteorologist Sam Lillo, Matthew had the third highest pressure observed in an Atlantic category 5 hurricane. For comparison, Hurricane Andrew had a 933 mb central pressure when it was a Category 5, and Hurricane Felix had a 935 mb central pressure when it achieved Category 5 status. Matthew’s strongest winds have been focused over a relatively narrow region near the core of the storm, which has allowed it to have extreme winds without an extremely low pressure.


Figure 2. Radar view of Matthew’s eye as seen from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters on their Friday night flight that found Category 5 winds. Image credit: Pilot Maj Roundtree, Air Force hurricane hunters.

Current observations of Matthew
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made two passes through the eye of Matthew on Saturday morning, and found that Matthew’s central pressure had risen to 947 mb during their second pass at 8:48 am EDT. Flight-level winds at 10,000 feet hit 135 mph and surface winds measured by their stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) were as high as 124 mph, which would make Matthew a borderline Category 3/Category 4 storm. Infrared satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Matthew had weakened some, with the eye less distinct and the cloud tops of the eyewall thunderstorms warmer. At upper levels, high cirrus clouds streaming to the north of Matthew showed the continued presence of a powerful outflow channel, which was helping ventilate the storm and allowing it to fight off the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots affecting it. Aiding development today were warm ocean waters of 28.5°C (83°F) and 70 - 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, as analyzed by the SHIPS model. Heavy rains from Matthew were affecting the coast of South America near the Colombia/Venezuela border, as seen on Venezuela radar.

Two-day intensity forecast for Matthew
Matthew is about to turn the corner around the Azores-Bermuda High, and will head north-northwest on Sunday towards Jamaica and southwestern Haiti. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will steadily drop during the next two days, reaching the low range, less than 10 knots, by Sunday morning. At the same time, ocean temperatures will warm to 29° C (84°F) and the heat content of the ocean will increase, which ordinarily would argue for re-intensification of Matthew. However, this morning’s hurricane hunter flight found that the eye of Matthew had shrunk to eight miles in diameter, and the aircraft showed evidence of a secondary maximum in winds outside of the eyewall. This may be an indication that Matthew is about to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter eye, with a new eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process usually causes a weakening to the storm’s top winds for a day or so. It is possible that we will see little net change in Matthew’s strength before the storm makes its closest pass to Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday--perhaps a decrease in peak winds today into Sunday, with some rebound possible by Monday if an eyewall replacement cycle is completed in time. The down side of an ERC is that is spreads out the storm’s hurricane-force winds over a wider area, resulting in severe impacts over a wider area.

Our top three intensity models—the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models—were predicting on Saturday morning that Matthew would have top sustained winds of 120 - 130 mph on Monday. The SHIPS model gave Matthew a 0% of rapid intensification of 30 mph or more by Sunday morning. In their 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba (29%) and Kingston, Jamaica (25%.)

Two-day track forecast for Matthew
Differences continue in the two-day model track forecasts for Matthew, though the differences between our two best models—the GFS and European model—have shrunk since Friday’s runs. This may be because of dropsonde data taken by the NOAA jet on Friday evening, which was ingested into the 00Z Saturday runs of the models. A large upper-level low pressure system over east-central U.S. will begin pulling Matthew sharply to the north-northwest by Sunday, but the exact timing of the turn is in doubt. An later turn is being predicted by the 06Z Saturday run of the GFS model, with the storm passing between Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday afternoon, and hitting eastern Cuba early Tuesday morning. The 00Z Saturday European model run has Matthew heading northwards a little sooner, with a landfall in southwest Haiti on Monday afternoon, and then in northwest Haiti early Tuesday morning.

Longer-range intensity forecast for Matthew
Matthew’s anticipated landfall over Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti on Monday will weaken the storm, due to the high mountains it will interact with. This process may completely disrupt the inner core of Matthew, reducing the storm to Category 1 or 2 strength for several days, as it traverses The Bahamas. The storm may be able to re-intensify to major hurricane status in 2 - 3 days, though, over the exceptionally warm waters surrounding The Bahamas. The LGEM and HWRF models predict a 25 - 30 mph increase in Matthew’s winds between Tuesday and Thursday. However, our ability to make intensity forecasts this far in advance is limited.





Figure 3. The 70 forecasts from the 00Z Saturday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) continued to show a wide variety of solutions for the track of Matthew. The two models have grown closer together in their solutions compared to Friday, but the GFS model showed a much greater threat to the U.S. In their 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of tropical storm-force winds in the U.S. to West Palm Beach, Florida (24%).

Longer-range track forecast for Matthew: the U.S. East Coast at risk
Matthew will likely to punish a large portion of The Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday. The threat to the U.S. East Coast remains highly uncertain, though, as one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 3). Our two best models, the GFS and European, differ considerably in their handling of the upper-level low pressure system that will be guiding Matthew northwards next week. The European model prefers a track for Matthew out to sea, while the GFS model keeps Matthew perilously close to the U.S. coast. Bolstering the GFS model’s case is the latest 00Z Saturday run of the UKMET model, which brings Matthew to a landfall in South Carolina in seven days. However, the Canadian, HWRF, and GFDL models show a track for Matthew more like the European model’s track, out to sea, so it’s anybody’s guess where Matthew will be five days from now. One wild card: an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave has formed over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and may alter the steering currents for Matthew. About 50% of the members of the European ensemble predicted that this system would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it heads northwest next week; the GFS model showed virtually no development. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. If this storm develops significantly, it may exert a steering influence on Matthew that could help pull it out to sea.


Figure 4. Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Saturday, October 1, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Saturday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Only one of these forecasts showed Matthew hitting the U.S. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Bob will be back this afternoon with an update on Matthew. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory posted a Saturday afternoon update on Matthew, CAT 4 HURRICANE MATTHEW: THREAT TO US CONTINUES.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. aquak9
Quoting 987. JohnCaesar:


Would it be fair to say that chances of avoiding Matthew in Miami have improved in the last 12 hours though?

No, it is too early to say anything like that.

We have no idea what you're trying to sell- a cruise to the Bahamas on Monday, maybe?- but it's not gonna work. No one here
with a half-ounce of common meteorological sense is going to tell you what you seem to want to hear.
Quoting 987. JohnCaesar:



Would it be fair to say that chances of avoiding Matthew in Miami have improved in the last 12 hours though?

I can't tell you that one way or another. I don't forecast in chances I go by my NWS and NHC forecasts and what I posted is the best we have right now. I know it is frustrating and maybe unnerving. This blog is full of opinions and discussions. My own personal take is Matthew takes a track up like Florida like David. That is simply my opinion though and not a forecast. And I would not advise anyone to take that as gospel. Follow the NHC and local NWS and you will be fine.
Quoting 982. Gearsts:

Another run at 5?

ummmm... anyone else seeing a flare up of storms on all sides of the storm indicating it is about to form feeder bands on all side?
Exactly. It is completing the loop currently. We should be able to confirm NW in the next few frames.

Quoting 989. Hurricanes101:



It just finished it loop, too soon to tell what direction it is going. NHC 5pm happened to be while Matthew was completing the NW part of his loop, just like earlier when they said he was moving south.
What if the ridge becomes pumped?
Those projected rainfall totals make me sad for Southern Haiti, unreal.
1007. hmroe
Quoting 977. Patrap:




That sure looks like the overall movement since 6amET has been NW
Quoting 999. TheSlammingButcher:



I will never understand the mindset of those you describe. I enjoy stormtracking as much as anyone, but the way that some get as gleeful as they do about events that are CATASTROPHIC to thousands of people is disturbing.


See this is part of the problem though. The comment you posted is claiming that many here want doom. I have seen none of that and with the exception of a few sickos around here, a large majority of this blog does not want to see doom. The comments claiming that are way more disruptive. There seem to be some on here that claim they see things that are not there. In the end, they are the ones that cause the drama.
Quoting 992. thetwilightzone:

is it me or dos mat have a back word spin to it

that would be a cyclone. they spin in a opposite direction that a Hurricane does south of the equator.
There is the, "thumb ridge" that Mark Sudduth was talking about earlier, extending into North Carolina.

I think we'll see another bout of RI tonite during diurnal max. Cat 5....912mb would be my best guess.
Quoting 989. Hurricanes101:



It just finished it loop, too soon to tell what direction it is going. NHC 5pm happened to be while Matthew was completing the NW part of his loop, just like earlier when they said he was moving south.


Matthew is wobbling on its center, but making overall progress slowly to the N.W. I'm sure the NHC will say Matthew is moving NNW or NW on the next advisory.
Quoting 982. Gearsts:

Another run at 5?



Would not shock me in the least.
Another loop de loop anyone??
1015. FSU2009
Quoting 999. TheSlammingButcher:



I will never understand the mindset of those you describe. I enjoy stormtracking as much as anyone, but the way that some get as gleeful as they do about events that are CATASTROPHIC to thousands of people is disturbing.


Agreed
recon just left and Matthew looks to still be intensifying. Would be nice to have another pass into that eye or have another recon on the way.

Seems that way. The loop is complete. Now what direction will it go? Maybe another loop?

Quoting 982. Gearsts:

Another run at 5?

18Z GFS - building a ridge to the north of Matthew post 120 hrs.

Quoting 1001. aquak9:


No, it is too early to say anything like that.

We have no idea what you're trying to sell- a cruise to the Bahamas on Monday, maybe?- but it's not gonna work. No one here
with a half-ounce of common meteorological sense is going to tell you what you seem to want to hear.


Take it easy... "We have no idea what you're trying to sell- a cruise to the Bahamas on Monday, maybe?- but it's not gonna work." Clearly someone is praying for an apocalyptic storm... check the wiki article on "Hero Syndrome"
It just finished the loop. May go around again.

Quoting 1012. Sfloridacat5:



Matthew is wobbling on its center, but making overall progress slowly to the N.W. I'm sure the NHC will say Matthew is moving NNW or NW on the next advisory.
Is the ridge starting to break a little @ 126 hours?
Quoting 1003. masiello3:

ummmm... anyone else seeing a flare up of storms on all sides of the storm indicating it is about to form feeder bands on all side?


probably going to intensify some as it moves away from the South American landmass
Quoting 1002. sporteguy03:


I can't tell you that one way or another. I don't forecast in chances I go by my NWS and NHC forecasts and what I posted is the best we have right now. I know it is frustrating and maybe unnerving. This blog is full of opinions and discussions. My own personal take is Matthew takes a track up like Florida like David. That is simply my opinion though and not a forecast. And I would not advise anyone to take that as gospel. Follow the NHC and local NWS and you will be fine.


Thank you for insightful and moderated response
Quoting 995. E46Pilot:

I would like to see a comparison of Matts current position compared to it's 5 day foretasted position from five days ago.


1027. Patrap
Miss Piggy has left da building

12 hrs later stuck off the east coast pretty much

Quoting 1018. daddyjames:

18Z GFS - building a ridge to the north of Matthew post 120 hrs.




That low to it's northeast ahead of the high gets a tad deeper the next frame, but will it be too far to lure Matthew out in this run? I'm not liking it one bit.
Quoting 979. thetwilightzone:

is it me or dos mat have a back word spin too it
Hay Taz, maybe, If you are looking at it from Australia... :)
has any one noted how big mat is getting?
Quoting 1027. Patrap:

Miss Piggy has left da building


Can not imagine what the crew must feel like right about now!
Quoting 1027. Patrap:

Miss Piggy has left da building




miss Piggy i here that kermit the frog is looking for you in mat so why not turn a round and go check
Quoting 676. Chicklit:

Is anyone besides me tired of Nutzilla's ceaseless promotion of a storm video?
It is against the rules here to do that. Enough already.


Each video is based on the latest update from the NHC. These videos ARE NOT a promotion, and it is unfair for you to declare them as such. Each video is different and focuses exclusively on Hurricane Matthew. To date, there are four different versions. I would expect you might see another version for the 5 PM NHC update.
1035. IDTH
Baha might not like this


The GFS forecast track is strikingly similar to Hurricane Hazel's track.
18z GFS = 12z UKMET

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:27:47 N Lon : 73:21:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 935.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
next recon should be leaving soon I believe
is it possible for a storm to strengthen while going through an eye wall replacement cycle? Or can the storm just loose its inner eye wall and immediately make the secondary one its primary?
1041. IDTH
Quoting 1036. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The GFS forecast track is strikingly similar to Hurricane Hazel's track.

Yeah, I really hope this doesn't come to fruition.
1042. Patrap
Quoting 1029. win1gamegiantsplease:



That low to it's northeast ahead of the high gets a tad deeper the next frame, but will it be too far to lure Matthew out in this run? I'm not liking it one bit.


This run it is taking 78 hours to travel from the southern Bahamas to off the SE coast of the US (sitting 24 hours in the same spot). Basically GFS saying that steering currents may be pretty weak during that time period. Where it'll go is still very much up in the air.
Quoting 932. WatchingThisOne:



"Turning and turning in the widening gyre ... "
The falcon cannot hear the falconer...
1045. Michfan
Quoting 1008. Hurricanes101:



See this is part of the problem though. The comment you posted is claiming that many here want doom. I have seen none of that and with the exception of a few sickos around here, a large majority of this blog does not want to see doom. The comments claiming that are way more disruptive. There seem to be some on here that claim they see things that are not there. In the end, they are the ones that cause the drama.


Just put those people on ignore and you will be much better off in the long run on this blog. We hate doom but marvel more so at what mother nature is able to accomplish with these storms.
The GFS has not really changed in the last two runs besides speed.

Quoting 1041. IDTH:


Yeah, I really hope this doesn't come to fruition.
18z has it missing the coast. it will come down to how strong the ULL to the northeast is and how fast the next trough is
Finally that low deepens, these runs are too close.
Quoting 1037. win1gamegiantsplease:

18z GFS = 12z UKMET
Actually, this was the UKMET track. The ECMWF and GFS are pretty much the same in this region, except for the timing.

Quoting 947. skycycle:

A look at a few recent heavy rain-makers in Haiti, with maximum recorded total + confirmed deaths in the country:

Hurricane Lili 2002 - 16.14" - 4 killed
Hurricane Noel 2007 - 25.78" - 90 killed
Hurricane Gustav 2008 - 10.75" - 77 killed
Hurricane Hanna 2008 - 12.72" - 512+ killed

What about Jeanne? 3,000+ deaths in Haiti
1051. IDTH

1052. Michfan
Quoting 1038. thetwilightzone:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:27:47 N Lon : 73:21:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 935.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


.1 away from Cat 5 on the ADT.
Matthew almost looking somewhat annular now. Tonight could be an intensity surprise.
Why do I see so many people on this blog complain about what the "rules" are? Put your big boy, and girl pants on already.

Quoting 1034. NutZilla:



Each video is based on the latest update from the NHC. These videos ARE NOT a promotion, and it is unfair for you to declare them as such. Each video is different and focuses exclusively on Hurricane Matthew. To date, there are four different versions. I would expect you might see another version for the 5 PM NHC update.
HH's may be gone, but IMO Matthew at least a 160 mph storm right now. RI is ongoing IMO, and it's obvious that Matthew is not done with intensifying. Matthew is drinking his reserve blob at his highest rate to date, and by two am update we will be looking at a 180 mph hurricane. Hard to believe NHC have not corrected their intensity read on the system now for multiple days. They are ignoring the reserve jet engine feeding Matthew. This trend has been obvious now for two days plus. Surprised they are relying on the models so much for intensity, should be using their personal observations of obvious trending.

Quoting 1049. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Actually, this was the UKMET track. The ECMWF and GFS are pretty much the same in this region, except for the timing.


Florida not out of the woods as I can see........why is this not being stressed.......
Quoting 1047. wunderweatherman123:

18z has it missing the coast. it will come down to how strong the ULL to the northeast is and how fast the next trough is


Those in NC may beg to differ. 923 mb MSLP? Well, thank goodness this is beyond a time frame we should take seriously


Looks like it. Has the feel it did yesterday right now. It is displaying itself quite nicely right now.

Quoting 1053. kmanislander:

Matthew almost looking somewhat annular now. Tonight could be an intensity surprise.
looks like no recon until 11pm tonight
Quoting 1059. Hurricanes101:

looks like no recon until 11pm tonight

why what happened?
Quoting 1059. Hurricanes101:

looks like no recon until 11pm tonight


That's probably a good thing. The time gap will give Matthew time to show what track it intends to follow as well as whether another round of deepening is on down into the 930s.

Hurricanes 101 they just took off :)
We are talking about an organization that uses statistical ERRORS over time to make a forecast cone.

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 1055. DeepSeaRising:

HH's may be gone, but IMO Matthew at least a 160 mph storm right now. RI is ongoing IMO, and it's obvious that Matthew is not done with intensifying. Matthew is drinking his reserve blob at his highest rate to date, and by two am update we will be looking at a 180 mph hurricane. Hard to believe NHC have not corrected their intensity read on the system now for multiple days. They are ignoring the reserve jet engine feeding Matthew. This trend has been obvious now for two days plus. Surprised they are relying on the models so much for intensity, should be using their personal observations of obvious trending.
Quoting 1008. Hurricanes101:



See this is part of the problem though. The comment you posted is claiming that many here want doom. I have seen none of that and with the exception of a few sickos around here, a large majority of this blog does not want to see doom. The comments claiming that are way more disruptive. There seem to be some on here that claim they see things that are not there. In the end, they are the ones that cause the drama.


I said some, not many. Pretty significant difference. And apparently I'm not the only person who follows this blog that sees it.
Quoting 1056. toddbizz:


Florida not out of the woods as I can see........why is this not being stressed.......
I agree no one along the East Coast is out of the woods yet.
Quoting 1057. daddyjames:



Those in NC may beg to differ. 923 mb MSLP? Well, thank goodness this is beyond a time frame we should take seriously





I still think the intensity is a bit bullish. The gradient is pretty steep it seems, but 923 mb is probably a borderline 5. If we have the ocean to create and sustain that type of monster, anyone who says AGW is a crock hasn't a clue.

Still think it wouldn't be as strong as that if it did follow this track and timetable. After it leaves the Bahamas, the heat potential drops off significantly, though it has the GS.
Forecast trend for GFS, 500 mb level:

Quoting 1056. toddbizz:


Florida not out of the woods as I can see........why is this not being stressed.......
No reason to STRESS over FL for a few more days (oh god, I just got sucked in, didn't I )
1069. Michfan
The post analysis of this storm in the future is going to be fascinating. That persistent confluence line to its east has to have had an effect on its RI and not something i remember seeing stick around for as long as this one has. Of course this also has a lot to do with Matthew meandering in this general area so close to the SA coast.
Quoting 1059. Hurricanes101:

looks like no recon until 11pm tonight


Currently on runway

URNT15 KNHC 012222
AF304 1214A MATTHEW HDOB 01 20161001
Unless the EWRC stops strengthening Im being conservative on a 170 mph Cat 5 in a few hours..
Quoting 1057. daddyjames:



Those in NC may beg to differ. 923 mb MSLP? Well, thank goodness this is beyond a time frame we should take seriously





If you zoom in on the OBX, there's no landfall. But the western eye wall would scrape the Hatteras Point.
Hopefully we will see some more adjustments to the east.
Quoting 1042. Patrap:


I guess this is why Bob hasn't pulled the trigger on the update yet, I mean, what do you do with THIS??
1074. Michfan
Quoting 1067. daddyjames:

Forecast trend for GFS, 500 mb level:




That doesn't bode well for OTS.
Quoting 1070. nrtiwlnvragn:



Currently on runway

URNT15 KNHC 012222
AF304 1214A MATTHEW HDOB 01 20161001


oh sweet lol
Quoting 1067. daddyjames:

Forecast trend for GFS, 500 mb level:




Not too warm and fuzzy
Would much rather the storm hit here in FLORIDA than in Haiti
Quoting 1056. toddbizz:


Florida not out of the woods as I can see........why is this not being stressed.......

Read nhc, stop staring at models. Jmj.

"Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida"
1079. aquak9
Quoting 1073. JNFlori30A:
I guess this is why Bob hasn't pulled the trigger on the update yet, I mean, what do you do with THIS??
buy cheap Jesus candles from Publix
Quoting 1071. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Unless the EWRC stops strengthening Im being conservative on a 170 mph Cat 5 in a few hours..

I'm not the most educated on the process, but the eye seems to be widening. I don't know if that is indicative of it going through an eye wall replacement cycle, haven't seen many in my life.
1081. Patrap
If your here to complain about the recon..and can't find the recon POD on the NHC home page....and know the flights times,

Well...,good luck in life schul.

😨😱

Can someone post the link to the groovy looking CIMMS polar imagery loop, the loop that stays centered??????

Much appreciated

Thanks
1083. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h1 hour ago Walnut Creek, CA
#Matthew has pushed Atlantic seasonal ACE to 66 - which means that we have met NOAA's official definition of an average season for 2016.
Quoting 1072. Sfloridacat5:



If you zoom in on the OBX, there's no landfall. But the western eye wall would scrape the Hatteras Point.


Kind of like horseshoes, hand grenades, and thermonuclear weapons? Too far out, could be 100's of miles to the east or west given the error at that point.
Think you can break florida in half at this point. Higher Chances from maybe Melbourne North to feel "Impacts", and less from Melbourne South.

Quoting 1065. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I agree no one along the East Coast is out of the woods yet.
1086. nash36
Quoting 1076. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not too warm and fuzzy


The GFS might be using a little climatology in the runs. With a building ridge, it's really hard to see such an abrupt about-face that close to the coast.
Quoting 1057. daddyjames:



Those in NC may beg to differ. 923 mb MSLP? Well, thank goodness this is beyond a time frame we should take seriously



You can't get much more perfect than this analog. I just hope it doesn't take this path for the sake of life and property. I mean it will have already caused peril in other countries in the Caribbean if the estimated rainfall totals turn out to be true.

Later that day, a ship just offshore South Carolina reported a central pressure of 938 mbar (27.7 inHg), which was the lowest in association with the hurricane. At 15:30 UTC on October 15, Hazel made landfall just west of the North Carolina/South Carolina border with a 40 mi (64 km) eye, slightly northeast of Myrtle Beach in the latter state. Based on the pressure, a larger than average size, and the fast forward movement, the landfall intensity was estimated at 130 mph (215 km/h), or a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.[3]
LOL

Quoting 1081. Patrap:

If your here to complain about the recon..and can't find the recon POD on the NHC home page....and know the flights times,

Well...,good luck in life schul.

😨😱


Quoting 1064. TheSlammingButcher:



I said some, not many. Pretty significant difference. And apparently I'm not the only person who follows this blog that sees it.


the comment you quoted said many. That was the point I was trying to make. We are humming along having a very good debate/conversation about what is going on present and future with Matthew and then someone just has to come and make that claim at a time when it is just not true.

It would be like someone coming on here now claiming the season is a bust. Why bother?
Quoting 1054. SayWhatNHC33:

Why do I see so many people on this blog complain about what the "rules" are? Put your big boy, and girl pants on already.




I was not complaining about the rules...but this poster was!

Quoting 676. Chicklit:

Is anyone besides me tired of Nutzilla's ceaseless promotion of a storm video?
It is against the rules here to do that. Enough already.
1091. Patrap
I think most models agree on a rebuilding ridge. Disagrement is between how strong ULL is, and how fast the second trough moves. I think by Monday we will have a better understanding where Matthew heads
Quoting 1011. CosmicEvents:

I think we'll see another bout of RI tonite during diurnal max. Cat 5....912mb would be my best guess.
I'll see your 912 and lower to 903.
Quoting 1081. Patrap:

If your here to complain about the recon..and can't find the recon POD on the NHC home page....and know the flights times,

Well...,good luck in life schul.

😨😱




I did go to the nhc page, it looked to me like the next flights range of research was 2300Z to 0530Z, I just misinterpreted the time of it.
Quoting 1090. NutZilla:



I was not complaining about the rules...but this poster was!

Quoting 676. Chicklit:

Is anyone besides me tired of Nutzilla's ceaseless promotion of a storm video?
It is against the rules here to do that. Enough already.

Take your spamming somewhere else already.
Quoting 1087. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You can't get much more perfect than this analog. I just hope it doesn't take this path for the sake of life and property. I mean it will have already caused peril in other countries in the Caribbean if the estimated rainfall totals turn out to be true.

Later that day, a ship just offshore South Carolina reported a central pressure of 938 mbar (27.7 inHg), which was the lowest in association with the hurricane. At 15:30 UTC on October 15, Hazel made landfall just west of the North Carolina/South Carolina border with a 40 mi (64 km) eye, slightly northeast of Myrtle Beach in the latter state. Based on the pressure, a larger than average size, and the fast forward movement, the landfall intensity was estimated at 130 mph (215 km/h), or a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.[3]


Norfolk, VA had a wind gust of 100 mph.
If you have the muscle, why not do donuts in the carribean parking lot
BREAKING THE LAW!!! BREAKING THE LAW!!!
Quoting 1079. aquak9:

buy cheap Jesus candles from Publix
And SPAM. Turkey SPAM.
1099. Patrap





"Back home we got a taxidermy man. He gonna have a heart attack when he see what I brung him'...
I expect Matthew to maintain pressure intensity or weaken slightly (to 948-950mb) as it undergoes an EWRC. The satellite imagery supports the formation of a second eyewall, and the small eye diameter and several plane radar images indicate that one was in the formative stages earlier this evening.

Most likely, the pressure will begin dropping again overnight, but the maximum winds might decrease to 100-110 knots until the new eyewall contracts to under 30nm.
1101. hullwx
Quoting 949. Patrap:

Dats a lotta tourqe moving around in the coc.




And the sheer volume of atmosphere being moved around the COC is astounding.
No I agree. It was directed at the person you are referring too.

Quoting 1090. NutZilla:



I was not complaining about the rules...but this poster was!

Quoting 676. Chicklit:

Is anyone besides me tired of Nutzilla's ceaseless promotion of a storm video?
It is against the rules here to do that. Enough already.

Still insisting on a Rhode Island/Mass. landfall, for now. Still too much uncertainty beyond 48-72 hours, IMHO.

I think I asked this earlier, sorry if someone responded and i didn't see it, is it possible for a storm to strengthen and go through and Eye wall replacement. Looks like its starting it right now but is also looking really healthy.
1105. IDTH
Quoting 1103. daddyjames:

Still insisting on a Rhode Island/Mass. landfall, for now. Still too much uncertainty beyond 48-72 hours, IMHO.



Nothing is ever simple.
1106. Michfan
Quoting 1104. masiello3:

I think I asked this earlier, sorry if someone responded and i didn't see it, is it possible for a storm to strengthen and go through and Eye wall replacement. Looks like its starting it right now but is also looking really healthy. EWRC are an indicator of a very strong and healthy storm.


I've never seen that happen. It always goes through the EWRC and weakens a bit with an expansion of the wind field. It can restrengthen once it completes the EWRC though.
Quoting 1103. daddyjames:

Still insisting on a Rhode Island/Mass. landfall, for now. Still too much uncertainty beyond 48-72 hours, IMHO.




Agreed for the most part. The left bend after Cuba still likely has some adjustments to be made to it. Which way those adjustments end up, I have no idea. Hoping that we will get Gonzo in to the Atlantic tomorrow. Also think that today's Gonzo data may help some. More wait and see.
1108. Patrap
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 13:23:06 N Lon : 73:22:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 935.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -55.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 117km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES13


Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.8 degrees





1109. V26R
Quoting 1103. daddyjames:

Still insisting on a Rhode Island/Mass. landfall, for now. Still too much uncertainty beyond 48-72 hours, IMHO.




I just hope this doesn't pan out, This is way too close to NYC (my home!!!)
Check out this amazing satellite presentation from NOAA GOES-13 Infrared of Hurricane Matthew beginning on Sept. 30 at 9:15 UTC and ending on Oct. 1 at 22:15 UTC.

Quoting 1086. nash36:



The GFS might be using a little climatology in the runs. With a building ridge, it's really hard to see such an abrupt about-face that close to the coast.


Ridge builds, so does the ull north of it. Which one wins will be the factor (if the run is close to being right eventually).
Quoting 1098. Barefootontherocks:

And SPAM. Turkey SPAM.

Gatorade, spam, Jesus candles, and water. Possibly batteries.
Last image on MIMIC looks to show outer eyewall starting to move in IMO. That coupled with current pinhole eye, and increasing latitude-I think EWRC is going to happen tonight.

Link

1114. beell
Quoting 995. E46Pilot:

I would like to see a comparison of Matts current position compared to it's 5 day foretasted position from five days ago.


Quoting 1056. toddbizz:


Florida not out of the woods as I can see........why is this not being stressed.......

It is being stressed. Look Matthew might hit the US or may completely miss. The fluctuation of the High pressure is critical, for most of the season high pressure has pushed storms further West. If all the models showed a path within 50 miles of each other for consecutive runs daily the NHC would easily have a good solid track that simply has not happen. UKMET is close to FL then off in the Bahamas, Euro well east and then west.People will just need to be patient and watch.
Quoting 1113. Unfriendly:

Last image on MIMIC looks to show outer eyewall starting to move in IMO. That coupled with current pinhole eye, and increasing latitude-I think EWRC is going to happen tonight.

Link



How will the EWRC affect the storm tonight? Confused...
1117. V26R
Quoting 1112. SecretStormNerd:


Gatorade, spam, Jesus candles, and water. Possibly batteries.


Extra Gas for the Generator
Quoting 1114. beell:






NVGM the closest? A bit north of the current position, but it seems so.
Quoting 1049. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Actually, this was the UKMET track. The ECMWF and GFS are pretty much the same in this region, except for the timing.




I just remember seeing a north track, then bending back northwest and by the time it headed north again, it was in South Carolina. Though that was the 12z UKMET.

Maybe you or some of our other met guys and gals, Weber, TA13, Jedkins, somebody, could think of what the GFS has been seeing in the atmosphere to forecast such an intense storm that far north. It would shatter records regardless of hitting any of the US.
I'd rather this thing go through an eye wall replacement tomorrow night, not tonight. Would spare Jamaica the brunt of the winds if Matthew were to. I fear if it goes through with it tonight, there won't be anything to impede it going through RI tomorrow with plentiful of warm water in front of it.
Quoting 1112. SecretStormNerd:


Gatorade, spam, Jesus candles, and water. Possibly batteries.

Warer, lots, vodka and tonic, chips, and Chef Boyardee mini raviolis (can eat them cold or warm)...no spam, if I can't fry it, I can't eat it!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1069. Michfan:

The post analysis of this storm in the future is going to be fascinating. That persistent confluence line to its east has to have had an effect on its RI and not something i remember seeing stick around for as long as this one has. Of course this also has a lot to do with Matthew meandering in this general area so close to the SA coast.


That's reasonably possible. Also sometimes it's just that the randomness of the atmosphere produces unique structures in each TC. Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Emily had similar squall line-ish appendages in their right side. This structure in Hurricane Ivan was why it was such a prolific tornado producer, including some EF2-EF3 tornadoes. The isolation of a strong band of convection into a structure almost like a front helped increase vertical shear and instability. This happened in the Tampa Bay area with TS Debby also where numerous tornadoes occurred including 1 high end EF2 that killed 1 person and injured several others. It also formed an isolated squall line type structure on the east side, leading to increasing shear and a feed of higher instability.

Most tropical convection in a TC is dealing with very low cape and surface heating due to the amount of widespread clouds and rainfall that repeatedly "works over" the atmosphere. But sometimes confluence zones can occur which allows a structure like an MCS or a squall line to get isolated from the rest of the TC rain bands, which can allow for modest cape and high shear. It takes very little cape for very strong rotating cells to break out in the very dynamic and sheared environment of a hurricane. So any bit of surface instability can cause very intense bursts of deep convection.

Dr. Masters posted an earlier entry that showed this band of convection on the right side had thousands of lightning strikes, and the eye wall had very active bursts of frequent lightning too.
Quoting 1112. SecretStormNerd:


Gatorade, spam, Jesus candles, and water. Possibly batteries.

Warer, lots, vodka and tonic, chips, and Chef Boyardee mini raviolis (can eat them cold or warm)...no spam, if I can't fry it, I can't eat it!
1126. V26R
Does anyone know what altitude the Upper Level Hunters (Gonzo) fly at???
I'm wondering what type of turbulence they encounter at their flights!!!
1127. Michfan
Quoting 1124. Jedkins01:



That's reasonably possible. Also sometimes it's just that the randomness of the atmosphere produces unique structures in each TC. Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Emily had similar squall line-ish appendages in their right side. This structure in Hurricane Ivan was why it was such a prolific tornado producer, including some EF2-EF3 tornadoes. The isolation of a strong band of convection into a structure almost like a front helped increase vertical shear and instability. This happened in the Tampa Bay area with TS Debby also where numerous tornadoes occurred including 1 high end EF2 that killed 1 person and injured several others. It also formed an isolated squall line type structure on the east side, leading to increasing shear and a feed of higher instability.

Most tropical convection in a TC is dealing with very low cape and surface heating due to the amount of widespread clouds and rainfall that repeatedly "works over" the atmosphere. But sometimes confluence zones can occur which allows a structure like an MCS or a squall line to get isolated from the rest of the TC rain bands, which can allow for modest cape and high shear. It takes very little cape for very strong rotating cells to break out in the very dynamic and sheared environment of a hurricane. So any bit of surface instability can cause very intense bursts of deep convection.

Dr. Masters posted an earlier entry that showed this band of convection on the right side had thousands of lightning strikes, and the eye wall had very active bursts of frequent lightning too.



Great explanation. Thanks for that.
Quoting 1114. beell:






1st 5 day cone. 5 days ago....

The 18z HWRF shows Matthew struggling to maintain hurricane intensity by mid-morning tomorrow. Seems very unlikely. The only explanation I can think of is SSTs. HWRF is a "coupled" model in that regard; it takes SSTs into account, and on the parent domain it seems to think Matthew has upwelled sub-26C waters. If that actually is happening, we'd expect convection on Matthew to start waning and the storm to take on a "hollow" appearance. Certainly no signs of that yet.

1130. beell

18Z GFS@96 hrs


@120 hrs.

Skinny ridge to the north at 120 hrs. May/may not hold.
1131. 900MB
Quoting 1109. V26R:



I just hope this doesn't pan out, This is way too close to NYC (my home!!!)


Ditto. I have a place on East End of LI as well. Spooky!
Quoting 1121. masiello3:

I'd rather this thing go through an eye wall replacement tomorrow night, not tonight. Would spare Jamaica the brunt of the winds if Matthew were to. I fear if it goes through with it tonight, there won't be anything to impede it going through RI tomorrow with plentiful of warm water in front of it.


Same. EWRCs are cyclical for canes trying to maintain strength, and if it occurs tonight I fear it'll have more time over water to tighten up before hitting the islands. Unfortunately I don't see it maintaining its current eye past tonight. Pinholes don't last that long.

Course, this torment has kind of done w/e it's wanted so far, and that confluence blob is an unknown factor for intensity AND guidance as far as I'm concerned. So who knows.
1133. aquak9
beell you have wu mail

ya'll we do not have wu-mail icons so please everyone remember to check your wu-mail occasionally

back to the regularly scheduled programming
1134. beell
Quoting 1128. charlottefl:



1st 5 day cone. 5 days ago....




Looks pretty much right on the money for that one at 5 days.
Something could try to form near the Lesser Antilles around mid october. Jose, Omar and Gonzalo impacted the islands between oct 10 and oct 20.

1136. V26R
Quoting 1131. 900MB:



Ditto. I have a place on East End of LI as well. Spooky!


How far east??? I'm on Staten Island (Tottenville)
will mat be EXTRATROPICAL or TROPICAL when it makes land fall in new york or Boston
1138. V26R
Quoting 1137. thetwilightzone:

will mat be EXTRATROPICAL or TROPICAL when it makes land fall in new york or Boston


Doesn't matter Taz, with that low of pressure expected, the Winds and the surge will really make a mess of the area!!!
1139. FOREX
Quoting 1129. MAweatherboy1:

The 18z HWRF shows Matthew struggling to maintain hurricane intensity by mid-morning tomorrow. Seems very unlikely. The only explanation I can think of is SSTs. HWRF is a "coupled" model in that regard; it takes SSTs into account, and on the parent domain it seems to think Matthew has upwelled sub-26C waters. If that actually is happening, we'd expect convection on Matthew to start waning and the storm to take on a "hollow" appearance. Certainly no signs of that yet.


garbage model this run.
Quoting 1085. SayWhatNHC33:

Think you can break florida in half at this point. Higher Chances from maybe Melbourne North to feel "Impacts", and less from Melbourne South.


For you any anyone else who persists in asking these questions... Maybe you are new at watching the tropics. This storm has not even really turned N yet. If you have read the NHC discussion and you are asking these questions, then you know the answers already. The forecast is uncertain. That does not mean anyone is wishing doom on Florida. Just the way it is on this wagon train.

The falcon cannot hear the falconer.
mat has a vary small eye and it is clearing out and getting better organized all so mat is starting too get vary big right now can wait too see what recon finds i beat we have a cat 5

1142. V26R
Quoting 1141. thetwilightzone:

mat has a vary small eye and it is clearing out and getting better organized all so mat is starting too get vary big right now can wait too see what recon finds i beat we have a cat 5




From those shots, it looks like the wobble to the north has begun
there is no north movement at this time. The storm has yet to make a move after it completed the loop
mat looks this like Patricia with it vary small eye
1145. V26R
Quoting 1144. thetwilightzone:

mat looks this like Patricia with it vary small eye


Are you saying that Matthew is Gender Challenged???
Recon plane heading back home? Issue with the plane?
Quoting 1118. skycycle:



NVGM the closest? A bit north of the current position, but it seems so.
If GFSO is operational GFS, it's pretty close also at 96 hours out

(yes, I know there's a new blog)
Yup both planes just landed back at the base it appears. The plane that finished its mission earlier just landed. The one that was supposed to go out started to head out and then turned around and went back.
Quoting 1146. Hurricanes101:

Recon plane heading back home? Issue with the plane?



ugh NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO i want a recon or noaa too go out this could be a cat 5 right now
Quoting 1149. thetwilightzone:




ugh NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO i want a recon or noaa too go out this could be a cat 5 right now


unless there is an issue with data on the tropical atlantic site
1151. K8eCane
Quoting 1097. ArmyTomFL:

If you have the muscle, why not do donuts in the carribean parking lot
BREAKING THE LAW!!! BREAKING THE LAW!!!


whistleblower
There is a new blog.
Quoting 1148. Hurricanes101:

Yup both planes just landed back at the base it appears. The plane that finished its mission earlier just landed. The one that was supposed to go out started to head out and then turned around and went back.
best be safe than sorry
Lets not forget Katrina... I remember it being a strong depression (10) comming from the Leeward Islands. All surfers in Puerto Rico where monitoring it for possible waves and there was sort of the usual speculation (scare/disregard) about it on the island. It tracked N. passed the Mona Passage and skimmed Ispaniola and Cuba degrading en course. Then it hit the Bahamas became TD 12 (confusing me) and in a brief while intensified and the rest is history! Nobody that I remember forecasted its genesis.