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Matthew Vaults to Category 4 Strength; Uncertainty Clouds the Forecast

By: Bob Henson 10:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2016

The spectacular three-day strengthening of Hurricane Matthew continued on Friday afternoon. Not yet even classified as a depression on Wednesday morning, Matthew was packing Category 4 winds of 140 mph as of the 5 pm EDT Friday advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery on Friday put a spotlight on Matthew’s rapid intensification, as a 15- to 20-mile-wide eye developed during the day (see Figure 1 below). Air Force Hurricane Hunter flights on Friday afternoon found peak flight-level winds of 117 knots (135 mph) around 2:20 pm EDT. Top near-surface winds, estimated by radiometer outside of rain-contaminated areas, were 111 knots (128 mph) around 3:45 pm EDT.

Hurricane Matthew is already being blamed for two deaths. One occurred on St. Vincent on Thursday, when a teenager was trapped against a house by a boulder that was dislodged by the storm. The other came on Friday in Colombia, where a drowning death in a rain-swollen river occurred in Uribia, La Guajira.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared satellite image for Tropical Storm Matthew as of 2015Z (4:15 pm EDT) Friday, September 30, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

How did Matthew get so strong so quickly?
Vertical wind shear of up to 20 knots has plagued Matthew for most of the last two days, yet the storm has not only maintained its structure but grown at a ferocious rate. Dissertations may be written on how this happened! Working in Matthew’s favor has been a steadily moistening atmosphere along its westward path, which means that the shearing winds didn’t push too much dry air into Matthew. Once it developed a central core, Matthew was able to fend off the wind shear much more effectively. In addition, water temperatures are unusually warm throughout the Caribbean (and the entire western North Atlantic), with an area of high oceanic heat content directly beneath Matthew’s path. Such deep oceanic heat allows a storm to strengthen without churning up cooler waters from below that could blunt the intensification.

Matthew’s ascent highlights the nagging challenge of predicting hurricane intensity. NHC statistics for the past few years show a steady improvement in track forecasts and much more erratic progress in intensity forecasts (see Figure 2 below). The typical 48-hour track error has been cut in half since the late 1990s, dropping from around 150 nautical miles (170 miles) to around 75 nautical miles today. Meanwhile, the 48-hour intensity forecast error has averaged about 12 knots (15 mph) in the last several years, which is not much better than the 15-knot errors that were typical in the mid-to-late 1990s. Much of that error is the result of just a few rapidly intensifying storms, such as Matthew.


Figure 2. Trends in track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for Atlantic hurricanes through 2015. Units are nautical miles (left) and knots (right); add 15% to obtain miles and miles per hour. Image credit: NHC.

Although Matthew strengthened far more quickly than projected in the official outlook--and expected by most observers--there were signs that rapid intensification was possible, as we discussed on Wednesday afternoon. The 18Z (2:00 pm) Wednesday run of the SHIPS statistical model included a 44% chance that Matthew’s strength would increase by 55 knots in 48 hours. In fact, this is exactly how quickly Matthew intensified: from 50 knots (60 mph) at 18Z Wednesday to 105 knots (120 mph) at 2:00 pm Friday. SHIPS is only one tool used by forecasters to assess potential intensity change. Dynamical forecast models were generally less gung-ho on rapid intensification on Wednesday, and even subsequent SHIPS runs pulled back a bit.


Figure 3. Radar image of Hurricane Matthew as seen from NOAA’s P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft at 1:40 pm EDT September 30, 2016. At the time, Matthew was a rapidly intensifying Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD, via tropicalatlantic.com

Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Matthew (1-kilometer resolution) at 1945Z (3:45 pm EDT) Friday, September 30, 2016. The Colombian and Venezuelan coastlines are outlined in yellow. Image credit: CSU/RAMMB/CIRA.


Matthew poses a major threat to Jamaica
Matthew is moving just south of due west at 9 mph. Its location about 75 miles north of Punta Gallinas, Colombia, puts it about as close to South America as any major hurricane is known to have gotten (even about 50 miles closer than 2004’s Hurricane Ivan).

Although Matthew’s westward track will keep it offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Colombian coast from the Venezuelan border west to Riohacha. The Columbian coast will remain on the less-intense left-hand side of Matthew, reducing the odds of hurricane-force winds and limiting the heaviest rains. Riohacha’s Almirante Padilla reported sustained winds of less than 20 mph on Friday afternoon.

Models agree strongly that Matthew will begin taking a fairly sharp right turn on Saturday, heading north-northwest through the central Caribbean. Conditions will be even more favorable for strengthening by this point. Wind shear is projected to drop dramatically (perhaps below 10 knots by Sunday), the deep atmosphere will moisten further (close to 80% relative humidity), and Matthew will be passing over waters with extremely high oceanic heat content. Now that Matthew is a major hurricane, we can expect ups and downs in its strength from day to day as internal processes such as eyewall replacement cycles kick in, but we can’t rule out the possibility Matthew will become a Category 5 while in the Caribbean.

The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthew’s dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.

Next in Matthew’s sights on the NHC-predicted track would be Cuba, whose excellent history of hurricane awareness and preparation would likely reduce potential impacts. Matthew may also be weakened by any direct passage over mountainous Jamaica, although it could easily strike Cuba as a major hurricane.

If Matthew were to trend eastward rather than westward, the risk to western Haiti will rise dramatically. Model guidance has trended gradually west over time, which gives some hope that Haiti will escape the worst of Matthew. Still recovering from the devastation of the 2010 earthquake, and plagued with deforestation and poverty, Haiti would be highly vulnerable to the impacts of a major hurricane.


Figure 5. Tracks of all major hurricanes passing within the shaded circle encompassing Jamaica during the period from 1851 to 2015. Each of these was moving from right to left (east to west), except for the 1912 hurricane, which moved east-northeast and then backtracked toward the west-southwest as it weakened. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 6. WU depiction of National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast for Matthew as of 5:00 pm EDT Friday, September 30, 2016.

Long-term outlook for Matthew
If anything, the prospects for Matthew later next week have become more uncertain over time. Models continue to take Matthew north through The Bahamas, but then we have major divergence among our top models. As just one example, the 12Z Friday operational run of the GFS model pulls Matthew almost due north, slamming it into eastern Maine as a significant hurricane or very intense post-tropical storm by next weekend. In stark contrast, the 12Z run of the ECMWF model strands Matthew in the Bahamas, where it lingers through next weekend and into the following week as a major hurricane. The 12Z run of the UKMET, our other top track model, also stalls Matthew in the Bahamas, then angles it northwest toward the Southeast U.S. coast.

Why such profound disagreement? The simplest explanation is that track errors increase markedly over time, and there is little skill beyond about 5-7 days. In this case, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how the mid-latitude steering features over the United States and the western Atlantic will evolve over the next week. NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet has been flying regular missions to sample the environment around Matthew, which has likely led to improvements in the short-term track forecasts. The problem is that the upper-level trough that will be a key influence on Matthew’s track next week is still thousands of miles away--moving through the northeast Pacific, where observations are scarce. It is far too soon to know with confidence how the upper-level features will evolve next week, so we need to keep our expectations very modest for confidence in any East Coast forecast.

The bottom line:

--Matthew poses a very serious risk to the western Greater Antilles early next week.

--A trek over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, Cuba, and/or Haiti would dramatically weaken Matthew. At least some restrengthening would be possible over the Bahamas.

--Matthew could affect any part of the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine at some point from the middle of next week into the weekend.

--Long-range forecasts will vary, perhaps several times each day. Because the key features that will steer Matthew are very uncertain at this point, any given model shift may not mean much until the evolution of these features becomes better defined, which could take several days.

Jeff Masters and I will be posting regular updates through the weekend, typically between 10 am and noon EDT and between 6 and 8 pm EDT. For those new to our blog, the comments section is packed with valuable insights from our many members, including meteorologists as well as dedicated laypeople. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory posted a Friday afternoon update on Matthew, MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW – FLORIDA TO MAINE ON ALERT (INTERIM UPDATE).

Bob Henson


Figure 7. The 70 forecasts from the 12Z Friday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (left) and 18Z GFS model ensemble (right) continued to show a wide variety of solutions for the track of Matthew that pose various threats along the U.S. East Coast. (The tracks from the ECMWF that previously targeted the Gulf Coast have almost completely disappeared.) Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 936. masiello3:

Eye is continuing to shrink... i think this maxes out at 175 with a pressure of 934 tomorrow at 8am, from there weakens to a Cat 4 with winds of 140-150 before strengthening back to cat 5 right before Jamaica.


No, I honestly think it's near the peak. You can see on satellite that the core is starting to look just a bit ragged. Also, the latest recon mission (and NHC discussion) suggest that an EWRC should come fairly soon.
1002. pingon
At this rate we'll have landfall in Colombia before long

1003. Plaza23
Quoting 947. Patrap:






Still moving WSW and looking as strong as ever. That eye is what many strong Pacific Typhoon eyes look like.
IBM should immediately, as in right now, invest in the blog. WU has struck gold and membership could bloom. Obviously sometimes the blog can provide vital information and critical thought that the NHC can't. NHC is the place anyone looking for information should always go to first, but they're not always right. For free thinkers looking for outliners of possibilities, WU is the place to be. Blog should be fixed in the coming days, as up to the minute updates could save lives. Most don't remember the blog during Katrina. It was a place of refuge for people desperate for information. WU likely saved lives during Katrina. Traffic here is going to likely double or triple in the coming days. IBM could fix this in a day. And they should.
1005. cabice
FLORIDA is sneaking more and more into the cone.
1006. Drakoen
GFS 00z is slower and farther south than the previous run.
Storms like this is why I stick with this blog.

Quoting 951. nrtiwlnvragn:



Look at SHIPS


oh dear

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 10 8 3 3 3 7 6 9 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 7 5 5 2 2 0 0 6 3 3 4

it looks like wind shear is going too fall too all most nothing so this could re bomb in too cat 5 or stronger storm a few more times after it 1st weakends
Quoting 943. GetReal:






I agree with Kman's earlier observation that if Matthew continues on this almost due SW motion (despite the W motion the NHC has some how observed on latest advisory) Matthew may indeed head into the SW Caribbean and stall for a period of time.


That is the sub 940 steering which, at 941 , Matthew is probably responding to. Was about to post that. West may be a challenge if the intensity holds.
I only post when the sh*t is about to hit the fan....
if does that a few more frame it is...otherwise its wobble back west...which its suppsed to do anyway according to the nhc until mid to late saturday......and possibly beyond now.

Quoting 924. Clearwater1:

He is starting the big looping turn now. Link
Quoting 958. LawBoy80:

In Fort Lauderdale and not believing the cone...gut telling me to get ready as this is a Fl bound system


Your gut doesn't mean anything. I mean you should prepare, but...
Quoting 938. oceanblues32:

hey I have friends in Negril right now they do not leave until Monday .. this does not look good for them at all. I am in south east Florida just above Miami it looks like we are in the clear or am I wrong?


It's absolutely too early to say you're in the clear; in 3 more days you'll have a good idea.
Quoting 938. oceanblues32:

hey I have friends in Negril right now they do not leave until Monday .. this does not look good for them at all. I am in south east Florida just above Miami it looks like we are in the clear or am I wrong?

Wrong, look at NHC track www.hurricanes.gov follow that only.
00Z GFS, Ridge seems to be same strength from 18Z, just a tad more west... Matthew headed for Jamaica.
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.


with the steering winds in place i don't think that the pull of the trough will be as strong as expected.  bridging of the high pressure ridges is squeezing off the channel for matthew to turn, in the process partially blocking the pull of the trough.  i expect cones to shift further west in the next 24-36 hours.  remember over the past 72 hours we have seen a 90 degree l move from straight over haiti/d.r. to now straight over jamaica.  matthew is farther south than the models predicted 72 hours ago.  matthew will eventually turn, but i expect a large percentage of florida to be in the cone of probability when it does turn.  and a 90 degree cut just isn't likely.  the ohio valley pull breaks and moves east in the 5 day outlook, and models are all over the place about the remnant low left behind, it's location, its strength, etc.   all of these factors lead me to believe that this is coming further west than is currently expected.
1018. vital1
Quoting 873. ajcamsmom2:

780. tiggeriffic
I had my trees trimmed and was going to stay in my cottage for Katrina. I figured the worst case scenario it had survived Camille and I was building a new one a couple of cottages down that was 5 foot higher with reinforced steel post in my cinderblock walls with a strapdown roof, hurricane windows etc. I thought I would just stay in the new house if things got bad. Luckily, I decided to leave Pass Christian and head to Lafayette because I decided that if the utility's went out it might be too much for my then 2 y.o. son. Good thing when I finally got home to pass Christian after the storm I found a wall on my bedframe and nothing but slabs everywhere. I did find a lot of weird things on the ground but that's another story. I'm so thankful Ieft. I will never stay for another storm if I can help It.


Hello from another Mississippian! I wasn't alive when Camille came through, but after Katrina I told a lot of people that Camille is to blame for some of the deaths on the coast. Camille was THE benchmark and if people survived it they thought surely they could survive Katrina. Watching this storm makes me wonder how many in Jamaica will poopoo it and die unnecessarily. Makes me sad because despite of all the problems Jamaica has, there are some wonderful people there.
1019. Michfan
Quoting 957. Terri2003:




Old.
1020. Michfan


High is building in at 48 hours.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thum b/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg/275px-Hebert_boxes.jpg

just food for thought.....
Quoting 971. Scotchtape:


What's up with the pseudo-hurricane just to the east of Matthew? It even seems to have its own center of circulation. Is this a developing system or part of Matthew? And will it be absorbed or are things about to go Fujiwara?


Part of Matthew.
If it crosses 77 or 78-thats when things get really interesting...
00GFS is slower than the 18ZGFS through 60 hours. It is SSW of the 18Z position
1025. hmroe
Quoting 963. odinslightning:


this isn't looking like it wants to make the hard turn anytime soon.  just 3 days the models were calling for it to head north over haiti/d.r.  in 72 hrs the track shifted further and further west.  dont get me wrong, i dont think that this will move through the yucatan strait, but i just dont buy the hard hard turn on a 90 degree angle.  i think in the next 24-36 hours we are going to have further shifting of the models west, putting miami/dade even closer to the center of the cone of probability.



Its not forecast to turn 90. It starts the curve at 74 and doesn't start the more North track until 76/77.
Quoting 976. Hurricanes101:



If it is just 1 frame after having a southerly component for that long, then the overall movement is definitely not west


Matthew is wobbling. Need several frames to establish a track change.
1027. Plaza23
In the last images of the IR there's a wobble to the northwest. He might be starting the turn.
1028. Michfan
Quoting 971. Scotchtape:


What's up with the pseudo-hurricane just to the east of Matthew? It even seems to have its own center of circulation. Is this a developing system or part of Matthew? And will it be absorbed or are things about to go Fujiwara?


It is an outflow boundary that is trying to develop that the South American landscape is blocking. It is a confluence line. Once this lifts further north away from SA that band should be absorbed in and go away a bit.
1029. IDTH
Quoting 956. Patrap:

nohelp4u seems to be mia for the cat5...


😨



I'm glad. I'm sorry but if there was anybody I downright despised on this blog, it was him. I about wanted to get banned for things I could have said to him.
1030. Patrap
Quoting 971. Scotchtape:


What's up with the pseudo-hurricane just to the east of Matthew? It even seems to have its own center of circulation. Is this a developing system or part of Matthew? And will it be absorbed or are things about to go Fujiwara?



I like tyo call it the doppelganger.


😵
1031. MahFL
Quoting 960. sporteguy03:

Is the MJO or CCKW in the Atlantic Basin? Just wondering if that helped Matthew at all.


Both of them are supposed to be present, this only shows neutral MJO, which seems odd with a Cat5 in the basin :



Ok folks, you've seen what we have done to the WU blogs. Here is a HUGE favor I'm asking, for all of our sakes. WE need to limit the number of images we post from Levi's site. I'm going to refrain from posting them. So far, Tidbits is holding up great during this run of the GFS, but if the images are posted here, I'm not sure how long it will hold up.
1033. nash36
Quoting 969. watchingnva:

And the gfs initializes at 964mb, nice...


Worse yet, has Matthew moving to the WNW at the beginning of the run. Good grief.
Slower but still SW
i wish this was in the W PAC then we can call mat a super typhoon has it has a nic ring tone too it
Matthew is the first Cat 5 I've ever had the luxury to track in real time.
1037. cabice
Will the NHC truthers be put in their place yet again? Only time will tell.
Quoting 987. KoritheMan:

tmw when your friend asks you to go to the gym with him after work. kek yeah right, kid. Unless you mean workin' my fingers writing a blog and eyeing the most beautiful storm in the Atlantic in years, I ain't going to ANY gym. kek

While, yes Matthew is a beauty to look at, I mean it is a Cat 5, but I'd say Gaston was much nicer to look at
Quoting 988. Dakster:



Pin Hole eye?

Where's Taz when you need him.


vary funny
Quoting 889. tiggeriffic:



dear Lord stay safe Baha......

Yeah, well, If Matthew will just leave me alone .... smh .,...

Sure hope we don't have to prove how this happens ....
1041. Patrap
Hey nasy, as toAvilia,

By luci and circumstance I had the op to drink a few with Him and Ivor Van Heerden of LSU..in November 2009..at the US Cuban Hurricane conference here in Nola.

It was the day after quiksat failed so it was really a good time for me and the wife. He is quite the character.
Ridge = pumped
So far, I'm detecting little to no difference in the 00z run from the 18z. But as before, by time y'all see this, we will have another 2 days worth of the 00z run out.
Any recommendations on Anemometers anyone? I live in Eastern South Florida and am deciding whether to purchase one for Mathew.
Quoting 966. reedzone:

GFS can't even catch up to the pressure, starts Matthew at 961 mlb on the 00Z run.


Grid spacing isn't high enough resolution to handle the pressure gradient, too many closely isobars :)
Quoting 970. DeepSeaRising:

Kingston's looking to take the eye of Matthew head on. Their sand barrier protection is not wide, and may get completely wiped out. Storm surge could push 15 feet into the bay. Looking at a catastrophic disaster potential.


God forbid...this would be sheer insurmountable devastation- tragically Katrina like, & nothing short of an apocalyptic disaster- save for completed, mass-scale, mandatory evacuations. Ivan's and Dean's Impacts in addition to Sandy's were bad enough there. However, Something of this magnitude- unfathomable...

To All of our Jamaican brothers and sisters- Please spare no efforts in preparation, mitigation and readiness should Matthew really begin to take a direct aim on your island & especially with a similar intensity at present.

God Bless!
1047. Patrap
Quoting 1004. DeepSeaRising:

IBM should immediately, as in right now, invest in the blog. WU has struck gold and membership could bloom. Obviously sometimes the blog can provide vital information and critical thought that the NHC can't. NHC is the place anyone looking for information should always go to first, but they're not always right. For free thinkers looking for outliners of possibilities, WU is the place to be. Blog should be fixed in the coming days, as up to the minute updates could save lives. Most don't remember the blog during Katrina. It was a place of refuge for people desperate for information. WU likely saved lives during Katrina. Traffic here is going to likely double or triple in the coming days. IBM could fix this in a day. And they should.


Its not that simple as the code is Aarons wizardly work.

We need him..or a new complete system that needs the utube i- frame code for comments too.

1048. ncstorm
18z GFDL Ensembles..

Quoting 1004. DeepSeaRising:

IBM should immediately, as in right now, invest in the blog. WU has struck gold and membership could bloom. Obviously sometimes the blog can provide vital information and critical thought that the NHC can't. NHC is the place anyone looking for information should always go to first, but they're not always right. For free thinkers looking for outliners of possibilities, WU is the place to be. Blog should be fixed in the coming days, as up to the minute updates could save lives. Most don't remember the blog during Katrina. It was a place of refuge for people desperate for information. WU likely saved lives during Katrina. Traffic here is going to likely double or triple in the coming days. IBM could fix this in a day. And they should.


I second that. Although, I wonder exactly how fast the blog would run if it was real time. BTW, what was your handle during Katrina? Feel like I've asked before.
Quoting 988. Dakster:



Pin Hole eye?

Where's Taz when you need him.

Also love watching it pump the ridge...
Quoting 1001. galvestonhurricane:



No, I honestly think it's near the peak. You can see on satellite that the core is starting to look just a bit ragged. Also, the latest recon mission (and NHC discussion) suggest that an EWRC should come fairly soon.


In the last 2 satellite frames it looks like it's started.
Quoting 971. Scotchtape:


What's up with the pseudo-hurricane just to the east of Matthew? It even seems to have its own center of circulation. Is this a developing system or part of Matthew? And will it be absorbed or are things about to go Fujiwara?


I've been pointing that out for a bit now. Without a recon or sat pass though it could simply be the mind playing tricks. Probably is, as I find it difficult to believe a secondary circulation could form in such close proximity.
Quoting 995. thetwilightzone:

what are the forecast for wind shear for then next few days ? for mat?

any one please?


Shear is forecast to slowly diminish but remain a hindrance to Matthew. Slowly dropping 5kts or so a day. Should Keep Matthew under roughly 15-20kts of shear as he makes his approach on Jamaica. My read on it at least.
Quoting 982. BARRY9444:

Hi. What is an " operational run" of a model and is it more accurate?


The operational run is the main run and is considered to be the most accurate. The ensemble members are the ones that get slightly different data to see what would happen.
1055. Uragani
Quoting 962. GetReal:



Now we are talking literally too many comments. It's rivaling Wilma. Imaging breaking all records, literally.
Quoting 983. birdsrock2016:

South Florida now in uncertainty cone!!! People , start getting your hurricane prep supplies ready before it is too late!!! Just a shift of 50 miles to the west in the cone would mean a disaster situation for South Florida.


Sounds reasonable....every model runs the past few days keep shifting west.
Quoting 1000. snowboy:

really not seeing anything strong enough to pull Matthew hard to the north


Holy mackerel. It brought snowboy out of retirement. Good to see ya.

AB high not as strong at 90hrs, and there is a 1015 low to the NE on the latest run. But there is also a low over Tx that may erode the protective high pressure nose over the SE.
Taz, SHIPS is too low. Shear is not going to clear out that fast imo. Will lower but I doubt we'll see shear below 15kts in the next two days.
THE RIDGE IS PUMP
Quoting 993. Hurricanes101:



The first time your area is added to the cone and 30 minutes later you state it looks like you are in the clear? No, SE Florida is definitely not in the clear.


Keep an eye out is all I can say =0.
1061. Grothar
Does the track shift east before NC? Why is that
I wonder how salty Caribboy is now?
1064. MahFL
Quoting 1008. thetwilightzone:



oh dear

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 10 8 3 3 3 7 6 9 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 7 5 5 2 2 0 0 6 3 3 4

it looks like wind shear is going too fall too all most nothing so this could re bomb in too cat 5 or stronger storm a few more times after it 1st weakends


A lot of 3's and 0's in there, eek.
Not sure why many are so convinced it's still moving WSW. The west movement at the 11 PM advisory was based on really new data, you can see the west movement in the last couple frames quite well now.
1066. Dakster
Quoting 1021. odinslightning:

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a7/ H ebert_boxes.jpg/275px-Hebert_boxes.jpg

just food for thought.....



NOW the Hebert boxes can play a role...

And yikes... a Cat 5...
1067. FOREX
Quoting 1004. DeepSeaRising:

IBM should immediately, as in right now, invest in the blog. WU has struck gold and membership could bloom. Obviously sometimes the blog can provide vital information and critical thought that the NHC can't. NHC is the place anyone looking for information should always go to first, but they're not always right. For free thinkers looking for outliners of possibilities, WU is the place to be. Blog should be fixed in the coming days, as up to the minute updates could save lives. Most don't remember the blog during Katrina. It was a place of refuge for people desperate for information. WU likely saved lives during Katrina. Traffic here is going to likely double or triple in the coming days. IBM could fix this in a day. And they should.
Maybe every single one of us should tweet them,not just Dr. Masters.
Quoting 1026. kmanislander:



Matthew is wobbling. Need several frames to establish a track change.


Past two hour time frame shows almost due W. Also looks like another burst of convection forming on the W side of eyewall.
1069. IDTH
MJO forecast

ECMWF


GFS
Anyone else notice that when you put it on the surface map that matthew slips underneath the jaimaca and cuba? I wish that could happen in real life for their sake lol.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?mo del=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=20161001 00&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=585
Quoting 870. stormpetrol:

13.3N, yet the movement is now west, just saying this is why some criticize the NHC

look at the movement!!!
It is moving at 265 degrees, this is West. Southwest is 225 degrees. WSW is 247.5 degrees. So it is 5 degrees south of west and 18.5 degrees north of WSW. Which is it closer too? They told us the actual heading at 265. That is West. This is not something to criticize them for. Now intensity is a different story....
1072. cabice
GFS is a joke
00Z GFS slower but on the same path as 18Z through 108 hours... Looks like another Florida scare.
1074. Grothar
Any one want to see the next one after this?

1075. Michfan
Quoting 1040. BahaHurican:

Yeah, well, If Matthew will just leave me alone .... smh .,...

Sure hope we don't have to prove how this happens ....



I hope you are prepared for this Baha. Stay safe pls.
Quoting 1043. StormJunkie:

So far, I'm detecting little to no difference in the 00z run from the 18z. But as before, by time y'all see this, we will have another 2 days worth of the 00z run out.


It is slower and further south of the 18Z


GULP... moving nw
Quoting 1038. Icybubba:


While, yes Matthew is a beauty to look at, I mean it is a Cat 5, but I'd say Gaston was much nicer to look at


But I'd say Matthew is at least 130% Gastonic.
I really wish that the NHC still issued these graphics. They were my favorite and I always felt they did a good job of communicating intensity uncertainty- something they don't really do anymore
I am all for the NHC and love the work they do, but how come we were able to predict an intense RI while the NHC wanted to not have it go above Cat 2?
00Z GFS now pulls Matthew just west of the 18Z run and hits Long Island (Bahamas), headed straight to Florida.
looks like mat heading right for S FL and the same area andrew made land fall back in 92


South during the same timeframe of the 18Z GFS.
Quoting 1018. vital1:



Hello from another Mississippian! I wasn't alive when Camille came through, but after Katrina I told a lot of people that Camille is to blame for some of the deaths on the coast. Camille was THE benchmark and if people survived it they thought surely they could survive Katrina. Watching this storm makes me wonder how many in Jamaica will poopoo it and die unnecessarily. Makes me sad because despite of all the problems Jamaica has, there are some wonderful people there.




Of course! Wealth is irrelevant to character.
I see more of a bend WNW past cuba ..in latest frame....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1053. DeepSeaRising:



Shear is forecast to slowly diminish but remain a hindrance to Matthew. Slowly dropping 5kts or so a day. Should Keep Matthew under roughly 15-20kts of shear as he makes his approach on Jamaica. My read on it at least.


Hinderance?
Quoting 1036. NCHurricaneTracker69:

Matthew is the first Cat 5 I've ever had the luxury to track in real time.

Same, I mean besides one of the millions of Cat 5's in WPAC
1090. FOREX
Quoting 1043. StormJunkie:

So far, I'm detecting little to no difference in the 00z run from the 18z. But as before, by time y'all see this, we will have another 2 days worth of the 00z run out.
Hey SJ,been enjoying your posts all week,lol. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 6 days.By the time u read this,Matthew will be in England,so I'll talk to you on October 12.
00Z GFS brings Hurricane conditions to the beaches of Florida
Quoting 1053. DeepSeaRising:



Shear is forecast to slowly diminish but remain a hindrance to Matthew. Slowly dropping 5kts or so a day. Should Keep Matthew under roughly 15-20kts of shear as he makes his approach on Jamaica. My read on it at least.



thanks but ship has this

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 10 8 3 3 3 7 6 9 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 7 5 5 2 2 0 0 6 3 3 4
1093. Dakster
Quoting 1050. knightdog:


Also love watching it pump the ridge...


It appears it could be doing that as well... Have to wait and see if the anticipated turn happens or not to know for sure.
1094. Grothar
Last time a Cat 5 as INE mm
Quoting 1019. Michfan:



Old.


Looks like it may Pump The Ridge!
1097. 7544
gfs says u guys dont trust me ayyyy lol wow


Shifted west again, this is really close
Stormjunkie, I use to be Tribucanes. Wasn't here for Katrina. Read over the blog from Katrina though. Wild times at WU back then. Blog was incredible during Katrina. Many old members aren't with us anymore, but the information up to the minute given was breathtaking. Joined in 2006 or 2007.


120 hours isnt that far away, FL is under the gun folks
Brings back memories of Floyd :)
1102. Grothar
hey every one how do you like too have a 915 mb storm off the coast of FL

scary GFS tonight for Florida

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
1105. 7544
you peeps reall need to see this gfs run
I know you won't see this but GFS 00z is pulling a David from 79 anyone remember that one?
Quoting 1072. cabice:

GFS is a joke


Based on what?
1108. Michfan
Quoting 1074. Grothar:

Any one want to see the next one after this?




Nope. I've already seen it. Don't want to again. GFS wants to ride the E. Coast of FL and hug it.
1109. MahFL
This seems closer to FL :

1110. Patrap
Matt is assimilating the doppelganger.


Resistance was futile.



🌎🎑📟🌛🌊🌉
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 72.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2016 0 13.2N 72.0W 990 59
1200UTC 01.10.2016 12 12.5N 73.1W 991 49
0000UTC 02.10.2016 24 13.0N 73.9W 993 47
1200UTC 02.10.2016 36 13.7N 74.8W 990 47
0000UTC 03.10.2016 48 14.8N 75.9W 987 50
1200UTC 03.10.2016 60 16.3N 76.0W 977 59
0000UTC 04.10.2016 72 18.1N 75.4W 968 64
1200UTC 04.10.2016 84 20.2N 75.0W 976 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 96 21.9N 74.7W 972 64
1200UTC 05.10.2016 108 23.4N 74.6W 970 65
0000UTC 06.10.2016 120 24.6N 75.2W 967 65
1200UTC 06.10.2016 132 26.2N 76.4W 960 69
0000UTC 07.10.2016 144 28.2N 77.4W 949 75
1112. will45
Quoting 1072. cabice:

GFS is a joke


we better hope it is

Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post



Feb 16th, 2016 - Post 24


Study the sands of time, Mother, and remember your servant.


I will lay a new card on the table that will trump the last.


A howling, red wind ... from another world.
For sure Patrap. Worried what the next five days will bring then in terms of volume. We lucky to have such a place to come and opine and get such great information from very informed members. Aaron still around?
1115. hmroe
Man, GFS has it coming as close to FL as it possibly could without actually making eye landfall!
1116. Patrap
Folks have the grace of time this weekend to prepare and if in a evaczone to get your plan in order.


.
slightly...splitting hairs essentially....

Quoting 1076. Hurricanes101:



It is slower and further south of the 18Z
My God that's a very intense hurricane, quite possibly restrengthening to a Cat. 5 approximately 50-75 miles offshore of Cape Canaveral.

Quoting 1032. StormJunkie:

Ok folks, you've seen what we have done to the WU blogs. Here is a HUGE favor I'm asking, for all of our sakes. WE need to limit the number of images we post from Levi's site. I'm going to refrain from posting them. So far, Tidbits is holding up great during this run of the GFS, but if the images are posted here, I'm not sure how long it will hold up.

Why doesn't Levi host his images on imgur.com? I would never run a blog and host the images on the same server knowing that 100's of people will hotlink them.
1120. snowboy
Quoting 1057. StormJunkie:



Holy mackerel. It brought snowboy out of retirement. Good to see ya.

AB high not as strong at 90hrs, and there is a 1015 low to the NE on the latest run. But there is also a low over Tx that may erode the protective high pressure nose over the SE.


gotta be here for the big ones - speaking of which, is Matthew trying to spawn a twin?
1121. Gstan34
There is a new blog post https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matt hew-becomes-the-atlantics-first-category-5-hurrica ne-in-nine-year
Quoting 1084. Hurricanes101:



South during the same timeframe of the 18Z GFS.


About the same position Hurricane Floyd was at in 1999 and the SE coast of Florida only got partly cloudy sky's and breezy conditions.
There's been a pretty consistent hook to the left north of Cuba now in most of the model runs this evening before resuming the north and northeast motion. I think UKMET was the first. Then the Euro, now the GFS. The threat to Florida seems to be growing, and therefore the threat to the rest of the southeast coast as well. Let's see what the Euro does.
We have landfall in NC per the 00Z GFS at 180 hours, Cape Hatteras.
1125. Dakster
Quoting 1083. thetwilightzone:

looks like mat heading right for S FL and the same area andrew made land fall back in 92


That would really suck.
Quoting 1102. Grothar:




No! This would be very bad for us here in Jax!
Quoting 1091. reedzone:

00Z GFS brings Hurricane conditions to the beaches of Florida


I will pass
Quoting 971. Scotchtape:


What's up with the pseudo-hurricane just to the east of Matthew? It even seems to have its own center of circulation. Is this a developing system or part of Matthew? And will it be absorbed or are things about to go Fujiwara?


It's not a separate system, it's a convergence zone that happens with rapid intensification (RI). (Just learned this myself last night.)

PS: See post 45 on the next thread.
1129. GatorWX
Probably going to see an ewrc before too long. Eye seems to obviously be shrinking and, although it may become even stronger in the process, it should eventually develop a larger, less powerful eye. It's not too common to see a cat 5 strength storm last too long with Matt's appearance. Don't get me wrong, it looks great atm, but it doesn't look like a long lived cat 5.

Kman and I discussed earlier at about 3 hr intervals, Matthew should be leveling off in intensity. All guidance, at the time, alluded to that being the case, especially as it hadn't been forecast to reach that intensity at that point in time. Boy oh boy, were we wrong. I'm very impressed with the overall progress of this storm.
Quoting 1103. thetwilightzone:

hey every one how do you like too have a 915 mb storm off the coast of FL




No way! This would be very bad for us here in Jax!
And we have a Hatteras landfall...
GFS: 920 MB skirting the coast of FL and this is after it crosses a portion on the mountains in Cuba...imagine if this thing misses the mountains and hits west/central cuba.....
Quoting 1106. sporteguy03:

I know you won't see this but GFS 00z is pulling a David from 79 anyone remember that one?


Yep remember it well here in Jax. Was a youngster in my teens but do remember.
1134. ncstorm
00z UKMET

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2016



HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 72.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 01.10.2016 13.2N 72.0W MODERATE

12UTC 01.10.2016 12.5N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.10.2016 13.0N 73.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2016 13.7N 74.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2016 14.8N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.10.2016 16.3N 76.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.10.2016 18.1N 75.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2016 20.2N 75.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.10.2016 21.9N 74.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2016 23.4N 74.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.10.2016 24.6N 75.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.10.2016 26.2N 76.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.10.2016 28.2N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
1135. GatorWX
Quoting 1110. Patrap:

Matt is assimilating the doppelganger.


Resistance was futile.



🌎🎑📟🌛🌊🌉


That is a pretty fun word to use in regular conversation. You get that funny look. I like it. lol
1136. GatorWX
Quoting 1119. lopaka001:


Why doesn't Levi host his images on imgur.com? I would never run a blog and host the images on the same server knowing that 100's of people will hotlink them.


Open your checkbook. Kidding, but that's why. Levi is a college student, I think. I will say though, without a doubt, he is one of my most respected go-to's. With all sincerity, I could see him at a high position in the NHC some day.

Got a shout out by hh's the other day.
If the EURO continues a westward movement, then we may have a better idea where Matthew is headed.. Not looking good guys, not good at all. If the GFS were to verify, Id get winds sustained 50-70 mph. Hurricane force gusts.. Flagler Beach would get winds sustained at 75 mph.

Interested to see what the EURO shows.
1139. ncstorm
Images for 00z UKMET


1140. GatorWX
Quoting 1103. thetwilightzone:

hey every one how do you like too have a 915 mb storm off the coast of FL




The surf could be epic Taz, epic! Gotta hit that south side though with the offshore winds. You should tell us your thoughts, Taz. Which model do you favor?
Quoting 1124. reedzone:

We have landfall in NC per the 00Z GFS at 180 hours, Cape Hatteras.


The center does not cross over Hatteras, it stays about 50 miles offshore. It doesn't make landfall until Mass then Maine.
The only reason Matthew will weaken over the next few days is due to EWRC. Around Jamaica and south, the water is 30C.





TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016


HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016

12 advisories 67mb drop.

Hurricane Matthew timeline
Advisory 1 ->5 Tropical Storm - TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
Advisory 5a-7 Category 1 - MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE
Advisory 8-9 Category 2 - MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
Advisory 10 Category 3 - MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
Advisory 11 Category 4 - MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
Advisory 12 Category 5 - MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007
Quoting 1141. WCSCTVCharleston:



The center does not cross over Hatteras, it stays about 50 miles offshore. It doesn't make landfall until Mass then Maine.


It actually RI and not MA with a direct landfall
Ok guys, now is time to switch to the new blog post
I swear. That 00Z GFS. Fall rendition of Donna.
But the 00Z Euro WAT
1147. ncstorm
Hello All,

I got up early to check the models before work..all I can say If I was living on Florida's east coast, I would be making moves to leave asap..that 00z GFS run is just devastating..

edit: .NWS, Wilmington, NC LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...The primary focus over the next several
days and into the beginning of the long term forecast period will
remain on Hurricane Matthew as the latest track from the National
Hurricane Center, as of 2 AM Wednesday, projects the center to
pass just offshore of northeast SC/southeast NC Saturday evening
after it`s progressed northward up the east coast. Latest 00Z
guidance is illustrating a possible shift in track as the upper-
level synoptic pattern shifts. However, given the location of the
storm at this time, anticipate the projected path and intensity of
Matthew to remain uncertain for a few more days. With that said,
significant impacts remain likely at this time, with rough surf
and dangerous rip currents, gusty winds, downed trees, and
potentially excessive rainfall. Some areas may observe up to 10
inches of rainfall, but again, a clearer picture of the weekend
forecast will evolve as the Matthew nears the forecast area.