WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Hunters Find Hurricane-Force Winds in Matthew; Wind Shear Attacking Storm

By: Jeff Masters 2:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2016

Tropical Storm Watches are posted for the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles—Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao—as Tropical Storm Matthew advances westwards at 16 mph across the eastern Caribbean. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Matthew on Thursday morning, and at 9 am EDT found hurricane-force winds of 75 mph in a small region to the northeast of the storm’s center. Surface winds were a bit lower in data from the airborne stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR), and based on this, the National Hurricane Center held Matthew's top sustained winds at 70 mph, just shy of hurricane strength, in its 11 am EDT advisory. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Matthew was showing the classic signs of a storm struggling with high wind shear—the center was fully exposed to view, and Matthew’s heavy thunderstorms were limited to the northeast side, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest that were creating high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots.

Matthew has grown to impressive size, with its heavy thunderstorms extending from the northern coast of South America to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and if it weren’t for the high wind shear affecting it, Matthew would fill the entire eastern Caribbean. At upper levels, high cirrus clouds streaming to the north of Matthew show the presence of a powerful outflow channel, which is helping ventilate the storm and allowing it to hold its own in the face of the high wind shear. There is also evidence of a second outflow channel becoming established to Matthew’s south, which one can see in the latest Upper Level Winds analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. If this second outflow channel becomes well-established, rapid intensification of Matthew becomes more likely if the wind shear affecting the storm relaxes. Aiding development today were warm ocean waters of 29.5°C (85°F). The 8 am EDT Thursday SHIPS model output analyzed 50 - 55% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere over Matthew, which is lower than optimal for tropical cyclone formation, and water vapor satellite loops showed Matthew was butting into a region of dry air.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Matthew.

Three-day forecast for Matthew
Matthew will continue west through Friday, slowing down from a forward speed of 15 mph on Thursday morning to 5 - 10 mph by Friday night. The core of the storm will make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles—Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao—on Friday. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and may escape receiving tropical-storm-force winds, though rains of 1 - 2” can be expected. Given the high wind shear currently affecting Matthew, no intensification is likely the remainder of Thursday, and we may even see a weakening of the storm’s winds. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that the wind shear will drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Saturday. If this forecast verifies, we should see some gradual intensification on Friday, followed by more rapid strengthening on Saturday and Sunday.





Figure 2. The 70 forecasts from the 00Z Thursday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) showed a wide variety of solutions for the track of Matthew. The operational (deterministic) versions of the models, run at higher resolution, are shown in red lines. The two models have grown closer together in their solutions compared to Wednesday, but the European model still shows a considerably slower and more westerly track for Matthew than the GFS model.

Longer-range forecast for Matthew
Huge differences continue in the longer-range model forecasts for Matthew. A large upper-level low pressure system has separated from the jet stream and will meander over east-central U.S. during the remainder of this week. The steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull Matthew sharply to the north by the weekend. This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has major implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, with a landfall by the storm in eastern Cuba on Monday morning. Matthew is then predicted to move through the central Bahamas on Tuesday. The European model has Matthew heading northwards more than a day later than the GFS model, with a landfall in Haiti on Tuesday morning. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), the long-range uncertainties in Matthew’s long-range track are high. Hopefully, these forecast discrepancies will be resolved by Friday morning, when data from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet on the environment surrounding Matthew will be available. This aircraft (nicknamed “Gonzo”), whose dropsondes can improve track forecasts by as much as 20%, will make its first flight Thursday evening. It’s good to have “Gonzo” back, as it was down for extended maintenance in late August and early September due to a corrosion problem, and was not available at all during Hurricane Hermine.

Matthew is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands, and residents of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a Category 2 hurricane--possibly stronger--affecting them early next week.


Figure 3. How strong could Matthew get? On rare occasions, when wind shear is low and dry air is absent, a hurricane will become a “perfect storm”, reaching the maximum potential intensity (MPI) that physics will allow. This maximum is a function of how warm the ocean is and how unstable the atmosphere is. Last year’s Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to 215 mph sustained winds over record-warm waters of 31°C (88°F) off the Pacific coast of Mexico, was one example of such a rare “perfect storm.” Hurricane scientist Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT has developed a relatively simple set of equations which will determine the approximate MPI of a hurricane, and real-time plots of this are available at wxmaps.org. In the case of Matthew, its MPI if it was in the region between Jamaica and Haiti today would be approximately 150 knots (170 mph), seen in the dark blue colors. If Matthew were in the northeast Bahamas, where ocean temperatures are warmer and the atmosphere more unstable, the MPI is higher, near 165 knots (190 mph), seen in black colors. These MPI numbers will change slightly when and if Matthew reaches these areas several days from now. Keep in mind that “prefect storm” conditions are difficult to achieve, and it is quite unlikely that Matthew will reach its MPI.

We will be back this afternoon with an update on Matthew.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good afternoon everybody. When was the last time that the Central/Eastern Caribbean had such a healthy, vigorous tropical cyclone move through. I am thinking 3-4 years ago?

Usually, my impression from following storms for a number of years, is that once the computer models get set on an ots scenario for a few runs on a well developed tropical cyclone, they rarely shift dramatically back to an Eastern Seaboard hit. I wouldn't rule out the US East Coast yet at all, though.

I am staying in SE PA and thought it would be interesting to experience my first noreaster.
502. IDTH
Quoting 494. Sfloridacat5:



Sigh...... this is they year Wilmington's luck runs out isn't it?

Plenty of time for it to change but this is leaving me uneasy.
Quoting 464. win1gamegiantsplease:



What kills 90% of hurricane victims?



Alcohol poisoning? Just kidding. That wasn't cool
Given the degree of saturation we already have here in Wilmington....the rain alone would cause tremendous flooding. A direct hit from a major on the Cape Fear River and its associated surge would be mind boggling.
Quoting 491. Grothar:

The closest I've seen it.




Except when it had a SFL landfall a few days back


Looks like the NHC forecast is on the right side of the guidance envelope. Definitely some west shifting since this morning.

Link
Tropical storm force winds along the east coast of Florida?
Quoting 494. Sfloridacat5:


510. IDTH
I'm waiting for 18z and 0z. That will be more telling but I'm not liking this trend.

Quoting 484. evsnds:



While correct, you just copy and pasted the first paragraph of an article from May 2015. Don't get complicit, things can go south very quickly on the eastern seaboard.
Yes I have definitely become complicit. Exactly why I posted. Just having a hard time thinking we could take a direct hit from a major hurricane. Just to be totally honest. I'm being stubbornly skeptic. But you are very right. Things change. I'm obviously still watching this closely 

Quoting 503. Brock31:



Alcohol poisoning? Just kidding. That wasn't cool
Given the degree of saturation we already have here in Wilmington....the rain alone would cause tremendous flooding. A direct hit from a major on the Cape Fear River and its associated surge would be mind boggling.


Very true, especially for the western banks/tributaries in BrunCo (Leland, Belville, Navassa, Winnabow, BSL). Wilmington would get the surge off the backside.
There you go guys, EURO shifted west quite a bit. Folks from Florida to Maine need to closely watch this storm, looks like an East Coast threat is on the way.
And.....

Off he goes

Quoting 504. win1gamegiantsplease:



Except when it had a SFL landfall a few days back

I saved a picture of that just in case. I like to compare them.
There ya go, out to sea. Euro tries to scare the east coast.
Quoting 509. hurricanewatcher61:

Tropical storm force winds along the east coast of Florida?


This is at 850 mb so surface winds will be less. But it would be a windy day (gusty) along the east coast of Florida.
At 1800 UTC, 29 September 2016, HURRICANE MATTHEW (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.2°N and 67.1°W. The current intensity was 65 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb.





😵
Oh man. Too close for comfort. Wow. That cutoff Low better come through as advertised.

Out for now. In Gods hands.


Quoting 505. Grothar:


Guys the euro 500mb heights are completely different via 0z and 12z. 0z is further east but there is a mammoth ridge. 12z is farther west but a trough is there instead... So many variables
Trough is getting weaker each run high stronger. More shifts to come wait for upper air data I think it will surprise you.
Quoting 512. win1gamegiantsplease:



Very true, especially for the western banks/tributaries in BrunCo (Leland, Belville, Navassa, Winnabow, BSL). Wilmington would get the surge off the backside.

INdeed. Either way it will be an interesting next few days. Gone are the days of hoping and wishing for a landfall. As a parent and a homeowner I'm in conflict with my surfing desire. I want the waves, I want the storm close....but not that close. THATS TOO CLOSE AAARRHHH! lol.
Quoting 467. Ed22:

Well we have Hurricane Matthew pressure down to 993mbs, furthermore to me Matthew is strengthening, better organized than this morning.


You can see it almost fully wrapping in those last few frames, hence the upgrade to hurricane as well. If this goes on we'll probably see a pronounced pressure drop in the coming hours as well.
This seems farther west.

Quoting 519. Patrap:

At 1800 UTC, 29 September 2016, HURRICANE MATTHEW (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.2°N and 67.1°W. The current intensity was 65 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb.





😵

NOAA9 Mission #05 into MATTHEW
Type: Upper-level / Dropsonde | Status: In Progress

As of 18:47 UTC Sep 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 25.00°N 73.78°W
Bearing: 90° at 435 kt
Altitude: 13139 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 11 kt at 47°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



527. IDTH
Quoting 520. HaoleboySurfEC:

Oh man. Too close for comfort. Wow. That cutoff Low better come through as advertised.




You're telling me. All that rain that's going on across NC right now is making the ground more and more saturated. The last thing they need is a major Hurricane running up the mouth of Cape Fear.
Seems to me that the trough that was supposed to kick Matthew North and OTS is retrograding NE and may not be as strong....allowing ridging to fill back in. System may continue to go further west than expected....
Quoting 462. Patrap:






LMFAO. Lets do the time warp again.......
Quoting 494. Sfloridacat5:

Closer but still a good 300 miles from Miami.



Is that 939 mb? Wow, that would be quite the hurricane.
Which model runs will reflect the Gonzo findings?
Way too close. Storm surf, macking current. You also have to deal with the bridge closings, etc. Bad all around. So close that even though it is expected to stay offshore, there is always the uncertainty it won't and you need protect life and property.

Not liking the trend. Catch ya later.

Quoting 523. Brock31:


INdeed. Either way it will be an interesting next few days. Gone are the days of hoping and wishing for a landfall. As a parent and a homeowner I'm in conflict with my surfing desire. I want the waves, I want the storm close....but not that close. THATS TOO CLOSE AAARRHHH! lol.
JMA model also shows a bend to the NW after crossing. Looks like we got another variable to deal with. As matthew emerges north of the caribbean, a ridge will try to build back in to close the weakenss. West of the ridge is another trough coming in. If matthew is far enough west, it could outrace the trough into the coast. Very tricky pattern. How fast will that trough be? how strong will the ridge be? UKMET joins the JMA and ECMWF for now
Quoting 520. HaoleboySurfEC:

Oh man. Too close for comfort. Wow. That cutoff Low better come through as advertised.

Out for now. In Gods hands.





Haven't had a sub-940 storm off our shores since 1989
The Euro and the GFS pass Florida in basically the same location about 300 miles to its east. But the GFS gets there 60 hours before the Euro.
So there's still a lot that needs to be worked out.
Want to make sure I understand what's in play here. Basically, if either the circled area on the left isn't as strong or the circled area on the right is stronger, Matthew heads due north from that point off the coast of Georgia into the Northeast. Is that right?

<>img src="<>img src="">">
I understand all eyes are on Matthew but...

Does the swirl around 45W has any support from the models?


Quoting 535. win1gamegiantsplease:



Haven't had a sub-940 storm off our shores since 1989


We shall not speak of said storm. Folks here get a little wiggy when we mention it.
Quoting 451. Patrap:




Now THAT is a strengthening Hurricane.

Sitting here in SWFL, not going to feel comfortable until the models stop spitting out solutions that take it around the West of Jamaica. But goodness, seems like conditions are setting up for this to be a monster storm, can only hope impacts - and its going to hit SOMEWHERE - are minimal.
Euro looks to have shifted a bit to the west

Quoting 484. evsnds:



While correct, you just copy and pasted the first paragraph of an article from May 2015. Don't get complicit, things can go south very quickly on the eastern seaboard.

Actually now that I think about it, I think the word we are trying to use is complacent.  If we are complicit  that would mean we assisted each other in committing a crime. Which I probably did by commenting to begin with 😂😂

who's to say it won't head WNW then NW while going North prior to crossing the islands...with the trough not being as strong and ridging building back in.....



Quoting 534. wunderweatherman123:

JMA model also shows a bend to the NW after crossing. Looks like we got another variable to deal with. As matthew emerges north of the caribbean, a ridge will try to build back in to close the weakenss. West of the ridge is another trough coming in. If matthew is far enough west, it could outrace the trough into the coast. Very tricky pattern. How fast will that trough be? how strong will the ridge be? UKMET joins the JMA and ECMWF for now
Why did you go poking holes in the storm P?
Quoting 536. Patrap:







Again the Euro is slower then the GFS, especially when north of the Caribbean, only one can be right.
Watching Matthew evolve from Chesapeake, VA. In the past month my backyard has received 5.5" from Hermine and then 17.4" from the remnants of Julia. A tropical system of any strength has the potential to be more damaging that usual. Flooding will certainly be a concern. With the ground so saturated it won't take much wind to bring trees and power lines down. Southeastern Virginia and Northwestern North Carolina really do not need Matthew to pay us a visit.
Quoting 536. Patrap:








Getting closer to the real warm water...are we starting to see a pinhole center?


Louisiana Economic Development Estimates $8.7 Billion in Residential, Commercial Flood Damage

Taylor Porter Brooks Phillips L.L.P. - Baton Rouge Office


September 27, 2016

Previously published on September 13, 2016



The Louisiana Economic Development, in a press release, estimates the August 2016 Louisiana Flood caused $8.7 billion in damage to Louisiana residential and commercial properties, with damage to businesses in the state exceeding $2 billion. Those figures do not include damage to the state’s public infrastructure. LED commissioned economist Dek Terrell of Lewis Terrell and Associates LLC to conduct the damage assessment in support of efforts by Gov. John Bel Edwards to gain federal appropriations from Congress. Those appropriations would be in addition to Louisiana recovery efforts being led by FEMA, the U.S. Small Business Administration and other federal, state and local agencies. Gov. Edwards is seeking $2 billion that would be delivered as disaster assistance through Community Development Block Grants managed by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development.

In addition to an estimated 109,000 housing units damaged, nearly 20,000 Louisiana businesses were interrupted by the flooding that began Aug. 11 and continued for days, leading to the flooding of more than 6,000 businesses in 22 affected parishes. LED also surveyed 455 economic driver firms in flood-impacted regions - those employers that contribute the most output to the state’s economy - and found that 6 percent suffered significant damage while 9 percent sustained minor damage.

“The good news we want to project is that most of our major industries in Louisiana remained open and today are continuing their operations successfully,” LED Secretary Don Pierson said. “During the three-week period after the flooding event began, Louisiana shouldered labor and value-added production losses that affected 6 percent of our economic activity statewide. As a state economy we are doing better every day, and we remain strong and open for business.”

Nevertheless, the flooding of housing inventory - affecting three of every four homes in Livingston Parish, for example - combined with damage to schools, businesses, churches and public infrastructure to disrupt daily life for hundreds of thousands of people. At peak, LED estimates that 278,500 Louisiana residents were unable to work due to temporary closures, suspension of operations, transportation impasses and residential flooding. Many of those residents continue to seek assistance through FEMA, SBA and contractors as they rebuild their lives.

“While our economy as a whole is healthy, many of our residents have not been made whole in their home or work life yet,” Secretary Pierson said. “Our friends, families and colleagues, including many in our own department, are doing the difficult work of rebuilding their lives and we are doing everything we can to support them. That support extends to our vital small business community. We are delivering more resources and assistance to them daily and will stand by them as they reopen their firms and restore the critically important framework of our small business economy. Small businesses are big business in our state, representing more than 97 percent of all Louisiana business establishments and more than half of our private-sector workforce.”

SBA is leading efforts to provide disaster loan assistance to homeowners, businesses of all sizes and many nonprofit organizations. The LSBDC Network is providing guidance to help small business owners plan and implement their recovery. Together, they’ve visited more than 2,200 individuals through Business Recovery Center outreach in Louisiana, with nearly 50,000 calls fielded by SBA customer service representatives and SBA loan approvals to date reaching more than $236 million. FEMA has disbursed more than $505 million in individual assistance to help residents who were uninsured or underinsured for flood losses. The National Flood Insurance Program, managed by FEMA, has authorized more than $274 million in flood insurance claims to date in the state.

FEMA surpassed $1 billion in total federal assistance to Louisiana disaster survivors and communities, less than 30 days after the flooding event began. More than 63,000 Louisiana families are receiving housing-related assistance through federal programs.

Secretary Pierson said federal, state and local partners have risen to the occasion to provide a concerted, strong response, but Louisiana’s recovery needs remain great. As part of a comprehensive request for $2 billion in additional flood disaster assistance from Congress, LED hopes to secure more resources to provide bridge funding and infrastructure resources that will restore Louisiana businesses.

“Our view is fixed on long-term solutions that will sustain Louisiana’s impacted businesses,” Pierson said, “not only to help them renovate their damaged structures, not only to help them reopen their doors, but to regenerate the working capital and revenue they need to survive this disaster and to become healthy contributors to Louisiana’s economic success far into the future.”



The views expressed in this document are solely the views of the author and not Martindale-Hubbell. This document is intended for informational purposes only and is not legal advice or a substitute for consultation with a licensed legal professional in a particular case or circumstance.


Whoa! Das a tree shaka!

Something many forget is that on average, peak vertical instability over the tropical and subtropical ocean often peaks late in the season, and this is due to that ocean temps are often still very high, but as a whole, the upper levels begin to cool some as mean upper level heights lower. This can often lead to hurricanes in the 2nd half of the season having very intense convection. Remember that the 2 strongest hurricanes on record in the western hemisphere have occurred in October (Wilma and Patricia) and that does play a part.

Do not assume later season hurricanes will be less impressive for this reason, in fact, some of strongest hurricanes occur in the 2nd half of September through October as we have seen.

In this case, the very intense convection Matthew has been producing is helping it deal with the shear in that it's been able to become a hurricane with only a partial inner core. In recent frames though, it looks as though heavy activity is wrapping around the center now, though it's always tough to tell with satellite given we are looking at cloud top temps and not radar precip.
A pressure drop to around 980mb is likely coming by tomorrow morning. Should coincide with a storm between 85-90 mph.
Whatever the case may be for the US, Matthew is going to be a dangerous storm for the likes of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba:

Quoting 540. nash36:



We shall not speak of said storm. Folks here get a little wiggy when we mention it.


I didn't say it's name at least, like Voldemort. Oh shoot.
557. IDTH
New video right off the press from Mr. Mark Sudduth
Link
Quoting 539. nocanesplease:

I understand all eyes are on Matthew but...

Does the swirl around 45W has any support from the models?






it was an Invest earlier today but they dropped it around 11:00am EST
Quoting 547. Avid6eek:

Watching Matthew evolve from Chesapeake, VA. In the past month my backyard has received 5.5" from Hermine and then 17.4" from the remnants of Julia. A tropical system of any strength has the potential to be more damaging that usual. Flooding will certainly be a concern. With the ground so saturated it won't take much wind to bring trees and power lines down. Southeastern Virginia and Northwestern North Carolina really do not need Matthew to pay us a visit.


Northeastern North Carolina
561. IDTH

Hold on to your pants ladies and gents, this ride is about to take off
563. IDTH
I am curious, what happened to Baha?
Anyone believe that the turn may not be as pronounced to the North...and more of a gradual turn NW towards central cuba perhaps....and get caught between frontal systems with the ridging building in towards the north and head back towards the FL straights??
JMA has a big hurricane right on the Brevard County Coast. JMA has Mathew take a hard LEFT turn to the NW after Cuba.

JMA/EURO/UKMET all have this sharp LEFT turn



Quoting 563. IDTH:

I am curious, what happened to Baha?

I have been asking this for days. I probably look like a stalker. Just a concerned blogger, though.
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 49 minutes ago 

Trough would need to sweep east of kick this out, or we would have a U.S. landfall with this 500 mb pattern :( #Matthew

Quoting 548. jeffreygtc:


Getting closer to the real warm water...are we starting to see a pinhole center?


Not so sure about an eye, but it's definitely feeling the effects of the higher heat content. Will be over rocket fuel by Dmax.
Quoting 567. WeatherkidJoe2323:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 49 minutes ago 

Trough would need to sweep east of kick this out, or we would have a U.S. landfall with this 500 mb pattern :( #Matthew




JMA had a Hurricane King Track yesterday and was the first to show a hard left turn into FL yesterday.
Everyone is pretty much in agreement that the trough will dig in over the gulf and keep Matthew to the Atlantic side of Florida correct?

I can't remember for sure, but it seemed like Ivan in 2004 was projected to do something along the lines that Matthew is projected but Ivan kept sliding west until finally hitting the gap between Mexico and Cuba and turning north.
Interesting to note is that the 12z UKMET actually shows Hurricane Matthew moving WNW after crossing Eastern Cuba and hugging the coastline. The bottom-line is no model seem to have a good handle on anything in the long range.


our little Matthew is growing up
574. IDTH

Quoting 513. reedzone:

There you go guys, EURO shifted west quite a bit. Folks from Florida to Maine need to closely watch this storm, looks like an East Coast threat is on the way.


As for Catwing Island (located at 15N 75W, by the way, right in the middle of the Caribbean Hot Tub)--Matthew is expected to make it's closest approach by 8AM Sunday per the latest track map, displayed below.


Harry Marilyn (aka Harry the Catwing Saviour) rescued the Catwings (of which there are 1600), plus the people watching over the Catwings, Vance Stubbs and Lukas Alexander, and are now en route back to the Dominican Republic, where they should be safe.

Quoting 565. StormTrackerScott:

JMA has a big hurricane right on the Brevard County Coast. JMA has Mathew take a hard LEFT turn to the NW after Cuba.

JMA/EURO/UKMET all have this sharp LEFT turn





I do not like the look of that O_O
This is Matthew with 20+ kt shear and a bit of dry air



That's kinda scary.
not sure when the next recon is but I think mat is at lest a 80 too 85 mph hurricane right now
Quoting 577. win1gamegiantsplease:

This is Matthew with 20+ kt shear and a bit of dry air



That's kinda scary.


lol if it had 20kt of shear the center would be expos so I would say the shear is at lest 10 too 15kt over the storm there is a noaa recon heading in there so we will see what is really happening with the shear and all of that
Matthew has really covered up this afternoon after looking quite sickly this morning, despite the fact that it never stopped gradually strengthening. The center looks to be more firmly under the CDO now. It still has to work on an eyewall, but that process might begin now if it doesn't get another hit from the shear.
Will the NHC move the cone at 5pm e?

Seems the cone should be over J AND
further northern turn????



Reputation, repetitive, reliable??

The 3r
582. IDTH
Quoting 573. hurricanehanna:



our little Matthew is growing up

Oh great, now it's starting to become more centralized over it's center.
anyone see matthew passing to the left of Jamaica?
Quoting 583. 19N81W:

anyone see matthew passing to the left of Jamaica?


I hope not. If that happens the gomex is in play. No thanks.
Quoting 553. DeepSeaRising:

A pressure drop to around 980mb is likely coming by tomorrow morning. Should coincide with a storm between 85-90 mph.


Was just going to say I think this will be a 80-90 mph storm within the next 12 hours.
Quoting 583. 19N81W:

anyone see matthew passing to the left of Jamaica?


Right now there isn't much model support for that.
Quoting 565. StormTrackerScott:

JMA has a big hurricane right on the Brevard County Coast. JMA has Mathew take a hard LEFT turn to the NW after Cuba.

JMA/EURO/UKMET all have this sharp LEFT turn






Euro has a sharp left turn? Please share.
Matthew now going into create his own environment mode. Shear may not be as big a player over the next 24 hours as once thought. Clearly Matthew is not going to be decoupled by wind shear now. Matthew could easily be a sub 960mb storm as he approaches Cuba. If we're unlucky he could be a sub 940mb storm as he approaches Cuba.
589. Ed22
Quoting 517. Grothar:


shifting back towards west to Jamaica.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 15 minutes ago

Buoy 42059 getting rocked north of #Matthew-- 51 kt sustained wind and 29 ft seas!

Quoting 583. 19N81W:

anyone see matthew passing to the left of Jamaica?

Not usually my go-to model, but the CMC ensemble mean shows that happening.

Quoting 563. IDTH:

I am curious, what happened to Baha?


He's probably spread eagle on the ground in his back yard, mouth wide open drinking the rain water.
Quoting 564. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

Anyone believe that the turn may not be as pronounced to the North...and more of a gradual turn NW towards central cuba perhaps....and get caught between frontal systems with the ridging building in towards the north and head back towards the FL straights??


The skirter storm at ANY strength along either the west or east coast of FL is bad; a spinal strike down the middle, bad!
Missing the FL peninsula, wish I had more wishes!!

We will all know soon enough
594. Ed22
Quoting 524. skycycle:



You can see it almost fully wrapping in those last few frames, hence the upgrade to hurricane as well. If this goes on we'll probably see a pronounced pressure drop in the coming hours as well.
yeah for sure.
Garrett Bastardi
‏@GMBnumba2
The differences aloft from 00z to 12z on the Euro are incredible. Good luck to anyone trying to accurately forecast #Matthew past Day 3.
Quoting 590. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 15 minutes ago

Buoy 42059 getting rocked north of #Matthew-- 51 kt sustained wind and 29 ft seas!




That is at 15.2N and 67.5W for reference.
Track forecast will almost surely shift west a bit at 5PM. The old OFCL is on the very eastern edge of the new guidance. Jamaica is in the crosshairs.
Ridge pumper inbound.
Quoting 589. Ed22:

shifting back towards west to Jamaica.

That ridge keeps getting a little stronger, and a little stronger, and that trough gets a little weaker, and a little weaker.
Quoting 502. IDTH:


Sigh...... this is they year Wilmington's luck runs out isn't it?

Plenty of time for it to change but this is leaving me uneasy.
And it will be back over South Florida in a couple days, and then the Eastern Gulf.
Quoting 583. 19N81W:

anyone see matthew passing to the left of Jamaica?

I will say only that I will not stop worrying until it actually turns north. I'm no expert but the models are only as good as the actual timing and strength of the front. Of course that wouldn't stop me from worrying about whoever else finds themselves in its path. This thing could be a bad one.
Go to his twitter page and you can see the map he shared, pretty interesting..

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 11 minutes ago

14 hurricanes since 1950 have tracked within 100 naut. miles of #Matthew's current location. Notable TCs include: Hazel, Ivan, Emily & Felix













603. Ed22
Quoting 555. Envoirment:

Whatever the case may be for the US, Matthew is going to be a dangerous storm for the likes of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba:


By this evening winds could be around 85 or 90 mph by 7 pm if this trend continues.
Quoting 587. Bucsboltsfan:



Euro has a sharp left turn? Please share.


Sure does moves NNE then turns NW up the Bahama Chain before moving back NE. UKMET has a more dramatic turn wnw.
But when I tried to tell yall about my newly ant hills in my yard, I was laughed at..dont see many laughing now..¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously though..I'm not worry yet..if this thing keeps trucking west, I might be calling some hotels that are inland for reservations..



Quoting 602. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Go to his twitter page and you can see the map he shared, pretty interesting..

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 11 minutes ago

14 hurricanes since 1950 have tracked within 100 naut. miles of #Matthew's current location. Notable TCs include: Hazel, Ivan, Emily & Felix
















and what do all 4 of those names have in common? oh yeah, devastating hurricanes.
Who is east side of J? Anyone?




Bueller..
608. IDTH
Quoting 605. ncstorm:

But when I tried to tell yall about my newly ant hills in my yard, I was laughed at..dont see many laughing now..¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously though..I'm not worry yet..if this thing keeps trucking west, I might be calling some hotels that are inland for reservations..





You could come to my dorm in the mountains ;)
Hopefully Miami and the west coast of Florida don't get coned in later NHC updates. That would then begin to get very very troubling as the potential for a 150 mph+ hurricane would be in play. Not to mention taking out a Matthew trip over the highest mountains of Cuba.
Quoting 564. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

Anyone believe that the turn may not be as pronounced to the North...and more of a gradual turn NW towards central cuba perhaps....and get caught between frontal systems with the ridging building in towards the north and head back towards the FL straights??
Very good chance for that to happen.
Quoting 605. ncstorm:

But when I tried to tell yall about my newly ant hills in my yard, I was laughed at..dont see many laughing now..¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously though..I'm not worry yet..if this thing keeps trucking west, I might be calling some hotels that are inland for reservations..





I got laughed at and told to clean my house yesterday because of the ants that appeared lol
Quoting 502. IDTH:


Sigh...... this is they year Wilmington's luck runs out isn't it?

Plenty of time for it to change but this is leaving me uneasy.


Nope, got my shield out 🛡
Levi had an earlier tweet about 68 W at 8:00 pm being noteworthy...in the short term forecasts...It looks like it may be past 68 west at around this time this evening....



Quoting 591. MAweatherboy1:


Not usually my go-to model, but the CMC ensemble mean shows that happening.


Center is like a Candle Wick catching the flame.

Quoting 573. hurricanehanna:



our little Matthew is growing up
Quoting 597. MAweatherboy1:

Track forecast will almost surely shift west a bit at 5PM. The old OFCL is on the very eastern edge of the new guidance. Jamaica is in the crosshairs.

Yep I agree, Visit that island a couple years ago and it cannot sustain a direct hit from a slow moving major hurricane. There are lots of hills and valleys on top of moutainous terrain that would make the potential for severe flooding. Not to mention wind damage. Matthew will be retired IMHO.
Quoting 592. eyeofbetsy:



He's probably spread eagle on the ground in his back yard, mouth wide open drinking the rain water.


*She
Hurricane Matthew laughs at your wind shear.
Quoting 538. Yurconale:

Want to make sure I understand what's in play here. Basically, if either the circled area on the left isn't as strong or the circled area on the right is stronger, Matthew heads due north from that point off the coast of Georgia into the Northeast. Is that right?

img src="img src="">">
I will take a stab at your question. Yes, sort of. Presuming the two circled areas on your graph represent the two North America troughs in play in the next several days...if the one on the right, the low now over KY and Indiana, is not strong enough, and as of 12z Euro this trough doesn't look modeled to be strong enough to pull the storm NE and out to sea (OTS), that trough will only be able to turn Matthew N in the sense of bumping the Atlantic ridge out of the way for a moment and giving the storm room to move N on the west side of the ridge. The left circle, a low now off the NW coast, 218 hours from now could then (MAYBE because that's long ways off!) be in position to allow Matthew to move N and then NE.

Possibly too simple an explanation, and the scenario is speculative at this point. If you have not, you might take a look at the 12z Euro frame-by-frame on the "North America" region as depicted at Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits. This model view will give you a full look at how the two lows MIGHT affect the Matthew storm's path.

edit: Not sure where the link will take you. If not the Euro North America view, you may have to hunt for ECMWF under global and find the North America region view - or maybe it'll work! lpl
Quoting 612. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nope, got my shield out 🛡


We might need a bigger shield.
Quoting 571. Rjw615:

Everyone is pretty much in agreement that the trough will dig in over the gulf and keep Matthew to the Atlantic side of Florida correct?

I can't remember for sure, but it seemed like Ivan in 2004 was projected to do something along the lines that Matthew is projected but Ivan kept sliding west until finally hitting the gap between Mexico and Cuba and turning north.
This is not October, and the troughs are not as strong as they are in late October, November. This so called trough will have a hard time making it near the Gulf, as the high fills in from the North, and East pushing the trough to the Southwest.
Quoting 579. thetwilightzone:



lol if it had 20kt of shear the center would be expos so I would say the shear is at lest 10 too 15kt over the storm there is a noaa recon heading in there so we will see what is really happening with the shear and all of that


It could have lightened. Shear still pretty visible out of the sw on the rgb and visible pic

the mountains also tend to kick storms west as well.....albeit a slight jog west....if it is slow to get past cuba it may get picked up and go out to sea...but I think it might even miss most of the mountains and gear more towards central cuba.....who knows, maybe from the dropsondes tonight the ridge is much stronger and/or trough less pronounced than anticipated which is why I offered that it may not feel the weakness as much as it theoretically should and go more due north into the alleyway

Quoting 593. ArmyTomFL:



The skirter storm at ANY strength along either the west or east coast of FL is bad; a spinal strike down the middle, bad!
Missing the FL peninsula, wish I had more wishes!!

We will all know soon enough
Quoting 612. win1gamegiantsplease:


Nope, got my shield out 🛡
Like I said 5 days ago, this could very well be an east coast scraper and potential nightmare
Sudduth says GOM not in play. Real threat to the Carolinas.
Quoting 610. NativeSun:

Very good chance for that to happen.


You guys really want it to hit Florida don't you.
Quoting 598. NOLALawyer:
Ridge pumper inbound.
Hey, you remember Storm W!
Personally, I don't see Matthew getting past Andros Island on it's way north north west and than North.

With the latest ASCAT of Matthew (might be a bit old though): good evening. Trying to catch up with what I've missed during the day.
Quoting 621. win1gamegiantsplease:



It could have lightened. Shear still pretty visible out of the sw on the rgb and visible pic


Based on sat. the center appears to be taking that WSW dip that the models have been showing a little earlier than expected.
Hmmmm I wonder if we still have to watch the storm here in Florida(East Coast)
Expect hurricane watches for Jamaica , Haiti and Eastern Cuba tomorrow . Then comes the Bahamas .
Quoting 624. Bucsboltsfan:

Sudduth says GOM not in play. Real threat to the Carolinas.
Quoting 611. SecretStormNerd:


I got laughed at and told to clean my house yesterday because of the ants that appeared lol


I've seen a few here in Wilmington also, but I wonder if that's just typical of fall. They were everywhere and yuuuge in the fall of 2013, where all we had was Andrea in June; this includes Jacksonville FL. But maybe I just haven't lived here long enough to notice.
Quoting 604. StormTrackerScott:



Sure does moves NNE then turns NW up the Bahama Chain before moving back NE. UKMET has a more dramatic turn wnw.


I don't View a NW movement as a "hard left."
Quoting 577. win1gamegiantsplease:

This is Matthew with 20+ kt shear and a bit of dry air



That's kinda scary.


870 mb 225 mph category 5 at Tampa, guaranteed :)
Was tied up at work for the past 4 hours and the current conversation has not changed since lunch; west or east waiting to see what NHC does with the track up-date later....................Another normal day on the Blog............................. :)
if ants coming inside are a sign of an approaching hurricane, then i should have been demolished by now....seriously, they have cozied up to the house as of the last few days and are coming in at free will it seems. they sure follow a straight line to the trash can
Quoting 631. Seflhurricane:

Expect hurricane watches for Jamaica , Haiti and Eastern Cuba tomorrow . Then comes the Bahamas .
Then comes Central and Western Cuba, and after that, who knows?
640. ackee
Quoting 607. ArmyTomFL:

Who is east side of J? Anyone?




Bueller..
Jamaica seem like could be direct hit but euro say other wise let see we are preparing nevertheless
Quoting 632. NativeSun:




He lives in the Carolinas. All chasers wishcast to within a 3 hour drive of home.
Quoting 635. Jedkins01:



870 mb 225 mph category 5 at Tampa, guaranteed :)


Instead of rain, it'll be dropping cookies. It'll be a delicious artificially flavored disaster.
Matthew's chances of majoring have got to be 60/40 on the low end. NHC intensity guidance is about 10-20kts too low, and that's without RI potential being considered in.
dipping wsw?
Quoting 620. NativeSun:

This is not October, and the troughs are not as strong as they are in late October, November. This so called trough will have a hard time making it near the Gulf, as the high fills in from the North, and East pushing the trough to the Southwest.


So-called trough? You mean this one?

Is this reminding anyone of Charley's track?

Anyone...?

No...?

Ok, good.

NOAA9 Mission #05 into MATTHEW
Type: Upper-level / Dropsonde | Status: In Progress

As of 20:07 UTC Sep 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 22.52°N 67.13°W
Bearing: 252° at 354 kt
Altitude: 13469 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 54 kt at 224°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



649. IDTH
Quoting 641. StormHype:



He lives in the Carolinas. All chasers wishcast to within a 3 hour drive of home.

Except he doesn't. Did you even watch the video?
Here is the updated CIMSS shear chart for 2:00 PM; notice how the core of Matthew is threading the needle and sliding along just below the high shear band......................Very intelligent storm:







Quoting 615. Ricki13th:


Yep I agree, Visit that island a couple years ago and it cannot sustain a direct hit from a slow moving major hurricane. There are lots of hills and valleys on top of moutainous terrain that would make the potential for severe flooding. Not to mention wind damage. Matthew will be retired IMHO.
Jamaica survived Gilbert in 1988 and will survive once more, even if it gets a direct hit.
Quoting 624. Bucsboltsfan:

Sudduth says GOM not in play. Real threat to the Carolinas.
GFS is saying much the same so far.
Is that an eye trying to pop out?
Quoting 641. StormHype:



He lives in the Carolinas. All chasers wishcast to within a 3 hour drive of home.


I was thinking this too, though he did say he feels that it will shoot NE at its closest approach without hitting the US.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



🌎🌊🎑
From earlier this am.

South Florida Water Management District
Tropical Conditions Report
9:30AM Thursday, September 29, 2016 (eps)

Current Conditions:

LOCAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS: None.
Tropical Storm Force or Greater Winds Within 48 Hours: No.


DISCUSSION:

At 8am, TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW was located near 14.1N 65.5W, or about 300 miles south of Puerto Rico, moving west near 16 mph with sustained winds to 70 mph. Matthew is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it continues westward through the eastern and central Caribbean for the next 2 days. Beyond that, an abrupt turn northward is forecast in response to a trough over the eastern US (including Florida). Such a track would take Matthew through the Bahamas about 100-400 miles east of the District next Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Confidence in the track should increase Saturday and Sunday as Matthew begins its northward turn and the locations and strengths of the steering ridges and troughs become better defined. A fair amount of uncertainty remains with the location and timing of this track so impacts to the District cannot be ruled out at this time.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE: 8:30am Friday
Quoting 646. rwdobson:



So-called trough? You mean this one?




I was thinking that the 73 high temperature west of Atlanta, GEORGIA Might have given away the fact that this trough, yeah it's already -IN- the gulf.
Quoting 649. IDTH:


Except he doesn't. Did you even watch the video?


I swore he said that in a video about Hermine
Quoting 648. Patrap:


NOAA9 Mission #05 into MATTHEW
Type: Upper-level / Dropsonde | Status: In Progress

As of 20:07 UTC Sep 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 22.52°N 67.13°W
Bearing: 252° at 354 kt
Altitude: 13469 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 54 kt at 224°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A






this particular flight might be the most important we see all weekend.
Quoting 653. bigwes6844:

Is that an eye trying to pop out?



Not right now, just extreme convection, tops are probably 60 K ft in there or maybe higher.
Quoting 632. NativeSun:




Who is Suddoth? I never heard of him?
San Juan Nexrad

248nm

Quoting 647. flbeachgirl:

Is this reminding anyone of Charley's track?

Anyone...?

No...?

Ok, good.


Folks that are wishing for this to get in the Gulf, just need to drop it. There is NO WAY this thing gets anywhere NEAR the gulf, with that digging trough. There will be a turn; whether that's at 73W, 74W, 75W, or as a complete outlier, 80W, it WILL turn.
Runs the hurricane tracker app...he's on twitter

Quoting 661. CCSoFLA79:



Who is Suddoth? I never heard of him?
665. Ed22
Quoting 655. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



🌎🌊🎑
Strengthening mode, that Matthew for sure.
Quoting 629. Ricki13th:

Based on sat. the center appears to be taking that WSW dip that the models have been showing a little earlier than expected.


Possibly, though not certain as that bobble just began at the end of the frame. Recon's headed there again I think now.

Quoting 642. ElConando:



Instead of rain, it'll be dropping cookies. It'll be a delicious artificially flavored disaster.


Death by cookie. Well you gotta go somehow...
Quoting 664. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

Runs the hurricane tracker app...he's on twitter



Actually the Hurricane Tracker App is NOT Mark Sudduth.
668. IDTH
Quoting 658. win1gamegiantsplease:



I swore he said that in a video about Hermine

No he lives in the Carolina's, in fact he lives in Wilmington I'm almost positive. I was just replying to the person who was saying he was wishcasting but from my time of watching his videos (that's like 4 years or so), I can most certainly say that he in no way wishcasts like that one commenter was trying to say.
What are any implications on if the storm moves faster to the west than forecast? It seems like on water vapor loop that the storm is close to near where its forecast to be at 00Z. Thoughts?

Wow, green with even some white over the center. Matthew is sure trying!
Quoting 660. Jedkins01:



Not right now, just extreme convection, tops are probably 60 K ft in there or maybe higher.
I saw on the Barbados satellite imagery cloud tops last night got over 72,000 feet, which is off the scale.

Notice this afternoon how well centered the CDO is now in the dvorak pickle, compared to earlier.

Matt is finally vertical.



✌🌊🌎🎑

It does appear, at least to the naked eye on satellite loop that there has been some wsw motion.
Should be a beautiful monster once the eye clears out, Matthew is taking on the exact shape many models projected at this point; pressures to follow.
Quoting 663. nash36:



Folks that are wishing for this to get in the Gulf, just need to drop it. There is NO WAY this thing gets anywhere NEAR the gulf, with that digging trough. There will be a turn; whether that's at 73W, 74W, 75W, or as a complete outlier, 80W, it WILL turn.


Just to clarify, I am NOT wishing for this to get into the Gulf. I went through the eye of Charley and don't ever want to go through that again. The hard right turn is just very reminiscent, which is why it makes me remember Charley's track. I'll be tickled beyond belief for this one to hook a hard northeast curve anywhere east of Jamaica.
Quoting 657. SSL1441:



I was thinking that the 73 high temperature west of Atlanta, GEORGIA Might have given away the fact that this trough, yeah it's already -IN- the gulf.


Its heading OTS - folks should just start accepting it.
San Juan Nexrad

Echo tops



🌜✌🌊🌎🎑
Quoting 672. Patrap:

Notice this afternoon how well centered the CDO is now in the dvorak pickle, compared to earlier.

Matt is finally vertical.



✌🌊🌎🎑




Would not be surprised to see Matthew really ramp up tonight.
Quoting 642. ElConando:



Instead of rain, it'll be dropping cookies. It'll be a delicious artificially flavored disaster.


That sounds good to me!

Actually, on second thought, that could be bad, since it's a category 5 dropping precip in the form of cookies, there would be piles of smashed cookies everywhere. Eventually they would all rot and decay leaving stink. Plus they would bring out the worst fire ant swarm of all time so we would all be waling around with smashed rotting cookies on our shoes while getting stung by the fire ants trying to eat them.

Quoting 660. Jedkins01:



Not right now, just extreme convection, tops are probably 60 K ft in there or maybe higher.


54,591 feet to be a bit more exact but good estimate. :)
Quoting 657. SSL1441:



I was thinking that the 73 high temperature west of Atlanta, GEORGIA Might have given away the fact that this trough, yeah it's already -IN- the gulf.


"The trough is weak" is a common refrain on here, even when the trough is obviously plenty strong. The trough is cut off and could retrograde west, but it's already plenty strong and plenty far south.
Going back to some of the common terms on here a few years ago; great vis shots coming in (in the PM and early AM) when you get that 3-D effect from the angle of the sun......If anyone starts to see "hot towers" popping up on the cloud decks, then you know that Matthew is getting ready to lower pressures and get a groove on.................I think that feature in the middle looks "suspicious"; if not an eye then is it an imprint from a  hot tower?






Once those feeder bands gets established in all four quadrant this thing is going to be a monster.
Quoting 671. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I saw on the Barbados satellite imagery cloud tops last night got over 72,000 feet, which is off the scale.




Yeah and the latent heat release near the center from that extreme of convection is very high, which is why it's managing to organize and strengthen despite shear.

Until shear relaxes we won't see any rapid deepening, but given continued high instability and very warm waters ahead to a great depth, IF shear gets light I'd give it 60% chance of RI and becoming a major.
Just sayin:


Image result for hurricane hot towers




Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Its heading OTS - folks should just start accepting it.


wayy too early to say it misses the conus, and even if it does, it's almost impossible for it not to hit a number of other countries on the way out.

You know, countries that people live on that blog on here.
Quoting 655. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



🌎🌊🎑
Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Its heading OTS - folks should just start accepting it.


its not going OTS OTS is not 100% for sure right now
691. Ed22
Quoting 684. Patrap:


Taking a jag towards the south of 15.0 north.
I'm sure pressures are lower probably around or sub 990 and this is at least an 80 mph Hurricane now.
Quoting 671. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I saw on the Barbados satellite imagery cloud tops last night got over 72,000 feet, which is off the scale.




Radar sometimes reports spuriously high tops when echoes are very intense. In this case reflection from a side lobe emitted a few degrees below the main lobe, is erroneously indicated as coming from the main lobe.
This is a common problem with hail bearing thunderstorms which are very very reflective, less so with the ones in a TC so I'm surprised.
Quoting 649. IDTH:


Except he doesn't. Did you even watch the video?


Nope. Didn't read his books nor buy his maps either.
Quoting 672. Patrap:

Notice this afternoon how well centered the CDO is now in the dvorak pickle, compared to earlier.

Matt is finally vertical.



✌🌊🌎🎑




Quoting 683. Ricki13th:

Once those feeder bands gets established in all four quadrant this thing is going to be a monster.


Hurricanes don't need feeder bands in quadrants, that's more of a randomness in hurricane structure than anything else. For a hurricane to become strong, the main thing convection wise is a solid area of inner core convection and a closed eyewall. It's always hard to tell, but it looks like it's starting to establish an inner core and maybe a partial eyewall right now. It might be the first TC I've seen in a while to reach hurricane strength before forming at least a partial eyewall. But they aren't all by the book, what it's made up for in visible organization it has done well in strong convection.

Hermine in contrast had a well defined eye and a closed eyewall, but not as intense of convection. It also was running out of time, so comparing those 2 are difficult.
Quoting 686. Patrap:




get some duct tape and make sure it stays there
IR-based TC size



IR-based TC size

Tropical cyclone size, the radius of where the TC wind field is indistinguishable from the background flow in a climatological environment, is empirically estimated from IR imagery and storm latitude. Principle components of the storm centered, azimuthally averaged IR brightness temperatures and the sine of the latitude have been regressed on the azimuthal mean tangential winds around TCs at 500k radius (V500) using a 1995-2011 Atlantic and East Pacific data set. Using the same dataset the climatological TC size (as defined above),radial decay of tangential winds beyond 500 km radius and V500 has also been estimated.
Combining the V500 estimate along with the climatological TC information allows us to estimate TC size. This TC size metric is reported in units of degrees latitude. More information on how to calculate this metric can be found in Knaff et al. (2013), which is being reviewed for publication in the Journal of Climate.


✌🌊🌎🎑
Unbelievable how a trough coming off the Continental United States is able to vacuum up a storm that is almost as far south as you can get in the tropical Atlantic....
Quoting 689. Patrap:




Stacked and ready for take off
Quoting 682. weathermanwannabe:

Going back to some of the common terms on here a few years ago; great vis shots coming in (in the PM and early AM) when you get that 3-D effect from the angle of the sun......If anyone starts to see "hot towers" popping up on the cloud decks, then you know that Matthew is getting ready to lower pressures and get a groove on.................I think that feature in the middle looks "suspicious"; if not an eye then is it an imprint from a  hot tower?









Eye like feature and vertical alignment have been progressing along rapidly ever since this morning. Very interested to see what Miss Piggy finds when she gets there. Also interested to see if Mathew can maintain this CDO until diurnal cooling starts kicking in.
Quoting 682. weathermanwannabe:

Going back to some of the common terms on here a few years ago; great vis shots coming in (in the PM and early AM) when you get that 3-D effect from the angle of the sun......If anyone starts to see "hot towers" popping up on the cloud decks, then you know that Matthew is getting ready to lower pressures and get a groove on.................I think that feature in the middle looks "suspicious"; if not an eye then is it an imprint from a  hot tower?








It doesn't look like a proto-eye, more like an overshooting top (basically a "hot tower"- I won't consider it a hot tower until there is a defined eye)
15 km Experimental FIM-9 has a possible landfall on the SC/NC border in a week.

704. IDTH
Quoting 694. StormHype:



Nope. Didn't read his books nor buy his maps either.

Then don't make accusations with no evidence to back your thesis.


😨
Quoting 663. nash36:



Folks that are wishing for this to get in the Gulf, just need to drop it. There is NO WAY this thing gets anywhere NEAR the gulf, with that digging trough. There will be a turn; whether that's at 73W, 74W, 75W, or as a complete outlier, 80W, it WILL turn.

I wouldn't call just off the southeast tip of FL "Nowhere near the Gulf"
Quoting 691. Ed22:

Taking a jag towards the south of 15.0 north.

No, actually the convection is just covering over the COC.
708. IDTH
Quoting 703. GTstormChaserCaleb:

15 km Experimental FIM-9 has a possible landfall on the SC/NC border in a week.



Yeah can that not happen?
See that "crack" looking feature in the CDO? seed trails. HAARP has his eye on you! Watch how he falls apart now.






lol

Quoting 701. StormJunkie:



Eye like feature and vertical alignment have been progressing along rapidly ever since this morning. Very interested to see what Miss Piggy finds when she gets there. Also interested to see if Mathew can maintain this CDO until diurnal cooling starts kicking in.
I am surprised (just looked at the charts below from 2:00 pm) how the stacking is progressing nicely today; the slide along the lower shear to the South is allowing him to stack up this PM (and even into the upper levels): the core has slid down a notch into the path of least resistance. This Dude is going to be a very impressive storm from the looks of things.

Upper:



Mid:


Low:


Eps is out. Interesting, still split
Quoting 703. GTstormChaserCaleb:

15 km Experimental FIM-9 has a possible landfall on the SC/NC border in a week.




Very reminiscent of Hazel - let's hope not!
Some of you keep saying Matthew is going out to sea, others that there is no way it will get into the GOM. Our local meteorologist is telling us that there is a slim chance that this thing will get into the Gulf of Mexico. Probably not but it's always better to be prepared just in case.
Getting closer to that hot pool of water!

Messy looking and still very restricted on the western side, Matthew has managed to pull off a very intense CDO. Can expect a solid period of strengthing for the near future. Nothing rapid in the near term due to issues on its western side caused by the dry air at height compounded by shear, but steady strengthening.
Quoting 711. wunderweatherman123:

Eps is out. Interesting, still split



Much closer consensus then before

Quoting 703. GTstormChaserCaleb:

15 km Experimental FIM-9 has a possible landfall on the SC/NC border in a week.



Hazel Redux
While we are concerned in the US as to the long-term path, I am more concerned at the moment (first stop) with how strong he will be as he approaches the Greater Antilles to the North over the weekend..............Could be a disaster for Haiti if they are caught in the right quad of a major hurricane of this size  that is moving through anywhere near 10 mph (more or less):






More aggressive 5pm update expected to be a Cat 2 in less then 48 hours.
gee even up thru the DC area etc..folks should be preparing for a possible hurricane.........
Now we're getting excited
Quoting 691. Ed22:

Taking a jag towards the south of 15.0 north.


The official NHC forecast calls for Matt to be well south of 15 degrees for some time.
it is unlikely, not impossible.....depends on the timing of the trough and ridge strength. Right now models have the trough "winning" so it's more east....but things could change. if this storm continues a modest pace and the the trough begins to back away to the point where the weakness is not as pronounced as it makes the turn and the high builds back in stronger.....well, GOM/Fl certainly isn't out of play. Were still, what, around two days from it making the turn?

Quoting 713. ajcamsmom2:

Some of you keep saying Matthew is going out to sea, others that there is no way it will get into the GOM. Our local meteorologist is telling us that there is a slim chance that this thing will get into the Gulf of Mexico. Probably not but it's always better to be prepared just in case.
Both models showed a jog wsw before making the turn....

Quoting 725. Sfloridacat5:



The official NHC forecast calls for Matt to be well south of 15 degrees for some time.
Snipped a section of the 5:00 PM. Advisory:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to
Riohacha.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohach

Something you rarely see in the Atlantic Basin, tropical storm advisories for the north coast of South America.
Eye Probability Forecast




Are the white spots inside the storm considered hot towers?
Whew, a lot riding on the strength of an early October trough. It's going to take a few more days and a lot of sampling. Expect the track to be a threat to CONUS. Going to be an interesting weekend on the old blog folks!
Quoting 708. IDTH:


Yeah can that not happen?

Isn't that over your house.
Maybe you can recommend accommodations for Cantore.
Quoting 655. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



🌎🌊🎑
Per NHC... "One should not focus on the details of the track from 72 to 120 hours due to the inherent uncertainties."

Someone, I don't remember who, mentioned last year or the year before, that the MDR is wider now that in previous years. Maybe it's happening.

Quoting 728. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Snipped a section of the 5:00 PM. Advisory:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to
Riohacha.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohach

Something you rarely see in the Atlantic Basin, tropical storm advisories for the north coast of South America.
Image Post #733 shows Matthew expanding. Shear must have let up.
According to the 5pm advisory, Matthew has moved 0.1 degree south, and 0.7 degrees west.
Always talking about tomorrow like Dallas fans and "next season," but these trends along with the dropsonde data should clarify things a bit. That being said I'm beginning to budget for extra purchases.
Quoting 735. bigwes6844:




Where is this graphic from?



📌
Afternoon all. It's been a long time since I've seen this symbol in this part of the ATL .... 3, 4 years? Since Sandy, IIRC ....


Watching with great interest to see where it ends up ....
Quoting 728. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Snipped a section of the 5:00 PM. Advisory:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to
Riohacha.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohach

Something you rarely see in the Atlantic Basin, tropical storm advisories for the north coast of South America.


I was trying to find historic tropical cyclone rainfall top 10's (or any charts) for Venezuela, Colombia and the Netherlands Antilles, if someone has anything please share.

Quoting 741. win1gamegiantsplease:

Always talking about tomorrow like Dallas fans and "next season," but these trends along with the dropsonde data should clarify things a bit. That being said I'm beginning to budget for extra purchases.

"It should be noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models. It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs."

From the 5:00 PM NWS Discussion #6. Do you or does anyone else know when these model runs will take place. Is it
8:00 PM or later?
any thoughts on the trough arriving too quickly in the gulf to pull more the storm to the north in the pronounced form that it is currently expected?
Quoting 739. Patrap:




Looks like Matthew's outflow is eroding some of the dry air to it's Northeast
Looks like Matthew finally found a shelter from the storm.

Matthew is going to have an eye soon
752. dk601
Quoting 699. opal92nwf:

Unbelievable how a trough coming off the Continental United States is able to vacuum up a storm that is almost as far south as you can get in the tropical Atlantic....

Yea it's always something preventing it from coming to me in Picayune ms 😠. Yawwwnn ... gonna have to wait another season I guess... I'm getting depression from not having storms to be anxious about..
My nightmare from this morning may be coming to pass; Pickachu on steroids............................




Shelter from the Storm Bob Dylan
Let's not forget our neighbors.
Quoting 721. LargoFl:

gee even up thru the DC area etc..folks should be preparing for a possible hurricane.........


From the DC area forecast discussion this afternoon..."This is a week away...but the word "matthew" may be on everyone's minds next Tue or Wed. This is currently well south of Puerto Rico
but is forecast to make a northward turn and be positioned between
Cuba and Turks and Caicos in the first part of next week. GFS and
Euro have very different solutions on location and timing but one
solution has this along the mid Atlantic coast during the middle
of next week. But the middle of next week is along way away. "
Note the hot tower blossom near the cdo center.



perhaps a "hot tower" ?
758. JLPR2
Matthew is flexing its muscles this afternoon, next recon should be very interesting.

Love everyone saying this is going OTS, guess Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas aren't populated by any people.
760. dk601
Quoting 747. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

any thoughts on the trough arriving too quickly in the gulf to pull more the storm to the north in the pronounced form that it is currently expected?

I was wondering about that too, but really wondering if it could slow, or retreat, would it continue in a westerly direction before curving
Whats the importance of hot towers, do they indicate anything or is it just showing the storm is doing well?
Quoting 747. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

any thoughts on the trough arriving too quickly in the gulf to pull more the storm to the north in the pronounced form that it is currently expected?


The G-IV mission should hopefully help clarify some of the details on the dynamics in play. My big question will be the strength of that trough. The NWS Melbourne discussion earlier today said that the front currently moving through GA will wash out over northern FL and begin to lift back north over the weekend is association with lifting/weakening upper low over the Ohio Valley.
This storm is likely to be right at peak intensity as it passes through the Windward Channel, probably about a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3. Looks to be a major disaster for Haiti and the lightly-populated Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas. Models seem pretty clear that further strengthening after this is unlikely, so although it will still be an event for parts of the eastern U.S. it will probably pale in comparison to what happens further south.
Quoting 746. westpalmer:



"It should be noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models. It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs."

From the 5:00 PM NWS Discussion #6. Do you or does anyone else know when these model runs will take place. Is it
8:00 PM or later?



Later, from about 11:30 PM to 3 AM.
767. dk601
Quoting 753. weathermanwannabe:

My nightmare from this morning may be coming to pass; Pickachu on steroids............................






Took me a sec but haha
Follow

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
The 12Z ECMWF ensemble again splits in 2 groups parsed by forward speed & strength of #Matthew over next 72hr. Short-term affects long-term.
Quoting 764. LesBonsTemps:

This storm is likely to be right at peak intensity as it passes through the Windward Channel, probably about a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3. Looks to be a major disaster for Haiti and the lightly-populated Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas. Models seem pretty clear that further strengthening after this is unlikely, so although it will still be an event for parts of the eastern U.S. it will probably pale in comparison to what happens further south.
I think if this trend continues we could well be looking at a strengthening four almost a five, there isn't going to be much inhabiting its development.
Beyond the obvious direct impacts in the Caribbean, on the forecast track there will be a TON of beach restoration projects needed all the way up the coast. Good surfing though.
that's what I've heard as well....and this storm is moving slightly faster than expect....and expect to stall drawing it more north as well....but if that does not happen...more w/nw it would seem is plausible.


Quoting 763. ecflweatherfan:



The G-IV mission should hopefully help clarify some of the details on the dynamics in play. My big question will be the strength of that trough. The NWS Melbourne discussion earlier today said that the front currently moving through GA will wash out over northern FL and begin to lift back north over the weekend is association with lifting/weakening upper low over the Ohio Valley.
Quoting 601. Sandcat:


I will say only that I will not stop worrying until it actually turns north. I'm no expert but the models are only as good as the actual timing and strength of the front. Of course that wouldn't stop me from worrying about whoever else finds themselves in its path. This thing could be a bad one.
The bad thing about a storm in the Caribbean is that it's nearly impossible for it to get out without serious implications for someone.

Worst case track would be across JA, across Cuba, through the NW Bahamas, and into FL or even GA .... a more directly Nward turn might be better in the long run ....
Kind of off topic, but interesting... I posted about Ulika and its straddling of the 140W longitude marker the other day, and how it would cross back over that line for a third time, which it has now done. I didn't realize just how rare that was though; per a tweet from Phil Klotzbach, this is actually the first time on record it has happened. The storm is dying and a threat to no one, but, you know, weather geek stuff.

Will note that the dry air getting ingested into the storm (from the exposed coc earlier) is now being expelled on the West side at the surface; those are the lower level clouds moving to the west of the circulation close to the surface. However, as shear relaxes, we are going to see some outflow bands start to form in the West quad as well.


Quoting 763. ecflweatherfan:



The G-IV mission should hopefully help clarify some of the details on the dynamics in play. My big question will be the strength of that trough. The NWS Melbourne discussion earlier today said that the front currently moving through GA will wash out over northern FL and begin to lift back north over the weekend is association with lifting/weakening upper low over the Ohio Valley.


The trough is plenty strong. Look at the water vapor images. The fact that a front even makes it to northern FL before washing out shows how strong it is. The only question is where exactly trough will be, and where Matthew will be, when they start to interact.
Quoting 770. masiello3:

I think if this trend continues we could well be looking at a strengthening four almost a five, there isn't going to be much inhabiting its development.


All of the models have scaled down max intensity. Even a Cat 4 is an outlier now. I trust that consensus.
This tight group continues to inch westward.



Quoting 761. masiello3:

Whats the importance of hot towers, do they indicate anything or is it just showing the storm is doing well?


My understanding is that hot towers in a hurricane's eyewall can mean it is strengthening . And will likely get stronger quickly.
Quoting 607. ArmyTomFL:

Who is east side of J? Anyone?




Bueller..

Kingston AND Nassau .... Hmmm ....

Quoting 765. nrtiwlnvragn:



Later, from about 11:30 PM to 3 AM.
Thanks. Sounds like tomorrow morning we may have some good model information.  Let's hope there is general agreement.
Quoting 773. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

that's what I've heard as well....and this storm is moving slightly faster than expect....and expect to stall drawing it more north as well....but if that does not happen...more w/nw it would seem is plausible.





Timing is everything here on its impacts down the road, if any, to the US. Unfortunately many people are undoubtedly going to feel the wrath of Matthew regardless of eventual outcome.
"...nothing really matters much. It's doom alone that counts.
And the one-eyed undertaker, he blows a funeral horn.
'Come In,' she said, 'I'll give ya shelter from the storm.'
-Bob Dylan, Blood on the Tracks
786. hamla
Quoting 754. Chicklit:

Shelter from the Storm Bob Dylan
Let's not forget our neighbors.
You r so right abt that,also great song brings back a few memories thanks
Quoting 759. masiello3:

Love everyone saying this is going OTS, guess Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas aren't populated by any people.


I think based on the current cone of doom there is a good chance out to sea after the Bahamas but guess we will see if that changes.
yes, good point....that's why I wondered if it had almost come down too quickly given Matthews current pace....


Quoting 777. rwdobson:



The trough is plenty strong. Look at the water vapor images. The fact that a front even makes it to northern FL before washing out shows how strong it is. The only question is where exactly trough will be, and where Matthew will be, when they start to interact.
Quoting 761. masiello3:

Whats the importance of hot towers, do they indicate anything or is it just showing the storm is doing well?


*ss loads of latent heat released :)
Quoting 780. hurricanehanna:



My understanding is that hot towers in a hurricane's eyewall can mean it is strengthening . And will likely get stronger quickly.
Thank you very much.
Quoting 788. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

yes, good point....that's why I wondered if it had almost come down too quickly given Matthews current pace....





you might be on to something
GFS Time is now upon us, let's see if the new data was put into the 18z GFS.
Live streaming Port Aruba webcam, currently southwest of Matthew.

http://www.portarubawebcam.com/
Quoting 731. HaoleboySurfEC:

Whew, a lot riding on the strength of an early October trough. It's going to take a few more days and a lot of sampling. Expect the track to be a threat to CONUS. Going to be an interesting weekend on the old blog folks!

I can tell you just from the temperatures we have down here in the southeast that it is a strong one. Wow!
Quoting 627. ElConando:

Personally, I don't see Matthew getting past Andros Island on it's way north north west and than North.
On the projected path, Matthew could be a worst case scenario for New Providence, with its numerous bedroom communities along the shallow southern coast. Tens of thousands of residents live on the coastal plain which is 0 to 20 feet above sea level ... and some areas flood in a heavy shower. A storm surge from a large, slow-moving, north-bound Matthew could send 12 - 20 feet of surge into highly vulnerable areas.

Sure hope this doesn't eventuate.
Quoting 777. rwdobson:



The trough is plenty strong. Look at the water vapor images. The fact that a front even makes it to northern FL before washing out shows how strong it is. The only question is where exactly trough will be, and where Matthew will be, when they start to interact.


No doubt it's strong right now. I mean ATL in the upper 70s and dewpoints currently in the low 40s... Definitely strong. But what I mean, is that the NWS here is saying that trough that is over the Ohio Valley is expected to lift N/E and weaken over the weekend. What remains of it at that point, and it's interaction with Matthew is the big question mark.
Quoting 778. LesBonsTemps:



All of the models have scaled down max intensity. Even a Cat 4 is an outlier now. I trust that consensus.


Model intensity is garbage beyond identifying general health of the system.

Quoting 796. BahaHurican:


Sure hope this doesn't eventuate.
Yeah, or happen either!

Quoting 770. masiello3:

I think if this trend continues we could well be looking at a strengthening four almost a five, there isn't going to be much inhabiting its development.

Until/unless Matthew runs into shear again.
Quoting 732. Chicklit:

Isn't that over your house.
Maybe you can recommend accommodations for Cantore.
Met both Cantore and Bill Keenely when they were both here for Bertha and Fran, real nice guys
Quoting 730. Chicklit:

Are the white spots inside the storm considered hot towers?



Matthew starting to look like an angry Rabbit.
Multiple windows for intensification. Tonight and tomorrow should see Matthew grow to a 80-95 mph hurricane. Saturday's the window for possible RI. When Matthew possibly makes the Bahamas, strengthening into a major (if not already one) could easily happen with conditions there. If Matthew climbs the NE, there is also a pocket of SST's that could further complicate the forecast for intensification.
804. tj175
Quoting 779. ProgressivePulse:

This tight group continues to inch westward.






Just watched Max Mayfield on Local 10 here in South Florida and he said the same thing about the models trending westward today. He said at some point in time he thinks that SEFLa will be in the cone of concern.
Does a faster storm favor the GFS path or EURO path?
I'm not 100% but I do believe the NHC is referencing the 00Z models, the full update run. The 18Z and 06Z are intermediate updates that don't get as much data input. That was old science though, it could be different now.
Quoting 778. LesBonsTemps:



All of the models have scaled down max intensity. Even a Cat 4 is an outlier now. I trust that consensus.


The Euro has a category 3 in the 5 day time frame and a category 4 beyond that. The GFS has a category 3 in the 5 day time frame and a category 4 beyond that. The HWRF has a category 3/4 in the 5 day time frame. A category 4 isn't an outlier, it's a good possibility at this time. Particularly as Matthew has been strengthening quicker than models have been depicting and the NHC has been forecasting. Don't be surprised if Matthew does become a category 4 or even category 5 system with conditions expected to be very conducive late this week and into next week.
24 hrs from now via 18z GFS.
Quoting 793. Climate175:

GFS Time is now upon us, let's see if the new data was put into the 18z GFS.









Problem is don't know how many of the dropsondes were from the Air Force mission and how many were from Gonzo.
At this point, and for the short-term through Sunday to Monday, we can see that the only limit on this storm is probably shear at this point and that we could very well have a major on our hands this weekend as it approaches the Greater Antilles from the South once shear relaxes some more because SST's are pretty much over the top.   A very dangerous storm and not something we have been used to seeing that often in the Caribbean in recent seasons........................And in the Eastern Caribbean of all places.  

We see Yall in the am but will be interested on how much bigger this one can get if d-max is kind to this storm overnight and into the early am tomorrow.

Based on these most recent shots, the area around the core is experiencing some pretty intense t-storms at the moment and cloud tops are rising and cooling as it continues to stack up into the upper levels this afternoon:

And final [edit]..............Based on the radar loop posted below by Patrap out of PR, we may indeed be seeing the start of an eyewall structure and those dimples and grooves may indeed be some hot towers starting to form.




Quoting 811. nrtiwlnvragn:










Problem is don't know how many of the dropsondes were from the Air Force mission and how many were from Gonzo.
Hmmm, I guess we will find out.
GFS so far is dipping WSW in the short term


🎑
Really worried about the impacts to Jamaica. My family owns oceanfront land in a cove (no house yet, been developing plans for years now) in the Northeast portion in a small fishing village called Robins Bay (St. Mary's Parish). We have a lot of really good friends down there (all locals) who are completely unaware of what lies ahead. My parents have been going there for over 40 years. My mom is down there right now, she goes down once a month to see her friends, bring goods for her oldest friend (fishing rods, lines, etc.), etc. . The area has been relatively poor for a long time, with only a recent influx of money (if you can call it that). A lot of development along the main road, which is probably 50 feet above sea level, has been happening over the past few years. They really don't need this now. It would set everything back at least 10-20 years in terms of development. They just got reliable electricity there about 3 years ago.

It sure seems to me, at the moment, that this storm may stay just far enough east of Jamaica to keep it on the weaker side. With the current structure of Matthew, it would be a glancing blow but well short of devastating. I am a bit deterred from the recent shift west in the track.

Emailed my mom (internet is probably months old in the area now) to tell her to get the hell out of there, and to tell everyone to prepare for the worst. I'd hate to see the destruction Matthew could cause when I go down for Thanksgiving. The area is truly beautiful and it is one of the last off-the-beaten-path, traditional areas of coastal Jamaica.

EDIT: Then I also have to worry about this damn storm riding the coast, impacting my friends down in Wrightsville Beach, NC and paying a visit to me in Long Beach, NY. This is one stressful storm.
811. nrtiwlnvragn
9:36 PM GMT on September 29, 2016

Am I reading that correctly in that 10 sondes made it in but from an undefined source?
18z GFS shows the cut-off low beginning to retreat back to the north at 42hrs. Let's see if this continues.

It's already at 68 West....

Quoting 815. Patrap:



🎑
matthew got the screaming eagle look unusual for an already developed system. good luck all
Quoting 811. nrtiwlnvragn:










Problem is don't know how many of the dropsondes were from the Air Force mission and how many were from Gonzo.


Dropsonde #11 was the most recent dropped from the G-IV, according to the Live Recon site, shows observation 11 released at 21:14Z, splashdown at 21:29Z.
Is that showing the ridging already beginning to build back in as Matthew makes the turn??

Quoting 818. nash36:

18z GFS shows the cut-off low beginning to retreat back to the north at 42hrs. Let's see if this continues.


12z Euro Ensembles



Later..
GFS already past Haiti and still in far south Caribbean through 48 hours. I see this being more west again.
Quoting 819. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

It's already at 68 West....




I know Levi mentioned one of the short term markers would be if Matt got to 68W before 8pm. What are the implications (aside from "it's going fast" duh)
Quoting 793. Climate175:

GFS Time is now upon us, let's see if the new data was put into the 18z GFS.


We won't be able to see the G-IV data until at least the 00Z model runs, I'm afraid.
Quoting 823. ncstorm:

12z Euro Ensembles



Later..

euro is totally not drunk
Likely going to be a bit further west again this run by the GFS, trough is weaker and ridge is stronger.
Quoting 822. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

Is that showing the ridging already beginning to build back in as Matthew makes the turn??




Not building back in. Nose of the ridge hanging around.
Quoting 818. nash36:

18z GFS shows the cut-off low beginning to retreat back to the north at 42hrs. Let's see if this continues.




remember Levi pointed out last night the Height anamolies were showing a stronger or further west ridge and weaker or further west trough. That showed indication that the GFS was likely to shift west. Looking forward to Levis' video tonight
Quoting 827. NunoLava1998:


euro is totally not drunk


What's a few thousand kilometers between friends anyway?
Quoting 823. ncstorm:

12z Euro Ensembles



Later..


Almost all are U.S. impacts or close to it.
Quoting 832. ProPoly:



What's a few thousand kilometers between friends anyway?

lol
that is like in 2000 km 32 tropical systems
which makes a lot of sense, totally
ok, my assumption I guess is...that it looks like it may have time to build back in.....depends how strong it builds back...whether it's NE/NC East FL...or dare I say GOM.

Quoting 829. nash36:



Not building back in. Nose of the ridge hanging around.
Quoting 805. ScooterXX7:

Does a faster storm favor the GFS path or EURO path?


IMO, faster means a track further west.
You can clearly see the trough dipping into the GOMEX at 66hrs. The turn begins.

What happens once in the Bahamas is the $1,000,000 question.

The models have underestimated the strength of the Subtropical Ridge all season long.
Quoting 821. ecflweatherfan:



Dropsonde #11 was the most recent dropped from the G-IV, according to the Live Recon site, shows observation 11 released at 21:14Z, splashdown at 21:29Z.


Would have missed the 18Z GFS, "data dump" starts about 4:45 PM.


Link
Is there anything to pull the storm west like Sandy? That is one of my worries.
He also mentioned 68 West in the short term by 8 pm..still two hours from 8 pm and its already at 68 W.....surely it could slow way down and stall....but seeming less likely now with the strong trough coming too fast, and leaving too soon?!

Quoting 830. Hurricanes101:



remember Levi pointed out last night the Height anamolies were showing a stronger or further west ridge and weaker or further west trough. That showed indication that the GFS was likely to shift west. Looking forward to Levis' video tonight
Quoting 759. masiello3:

Love everyone saying this is going OTS, guess Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas aren't populated by any people.
Get off yer high horse. OTS in regards to the US is what they mean and that doesn't disrespect any unfortunate soul who may be in the islands if and/or when a hurricane, big or small rolls through..
Heading NW for Jamaica in 72 hrs.
Definitely more ridging being noticed @ 500MB with 18Z GFS... at least for the time being.

Moving more NW than N, pretty substantial shift west, maybe another 50 miles, Jamaica looks to be whaled.
Guessing Miss Piggy is refueling? Any idea when the next low level mission is?
Quoting 816. tc1120:

Really worried about the impacts to Jamaica. My family owns oceanfront land in a cove (no house yet, been developing plans for years now) in the Northeast portion in a small fishing village called Robins Bay (St. Mary's Parish). We have a lot of really good friends down there (all locals) who are completely unaware of what lies ahead. My parents have been going there for over 40 years. My mom is down there right now, she goes down once a month to see her friends, bring goods for her oldest friend (fishing rods, lines, etc.), etc. . The area has been relatively poor for a long time, with only a recent influx of money (if you can call it that). A lot of development along the main road, which is probably 50 feet above sea level, has been happening over the past few years. They really don't need this now. It would set everything back at least 10-20 years in terms of development. They just got reliable electricity there about 3 years ago.

It sure seems to me, at the moment, that this storm may stay just far enough east of Jamaica to keep it on the weaker side. With the current structure of Matthew, it would be a glancing blow but well short of devastating. I am a bit deterred from the recent shift west in the track.

Emailed my mom (internet is probably months old in the area now) to tell her to get the hell out of there, and to tell everyone to prepare for the worst. I'd hate to see the destruction Matthew could cause when I go down for Thanksgiving. The area is truly beautiful and it is one of the last off-the-beaten-path, traditional areas of coastal Jamaica.

EDIT: Then I also have to worry about this damn storm riding the coast, impacting my friends down in Wrightsville Beach, NC and paying a visit to me in Long Beach, NY. This is one stressful storm.



 
The Government is taking this very seriously and has already set in motion the OPED to ensure that we are as ready as we can be. The Met office has been issuing bulletins since yesterday. And, everybody in Jamaica has a cell phone including the most up to date gadgets.
Quoting 730. Chicklit:

Are the white spots inside the storm considered hot towers?



No Trump Towers sorry couldn't resist lol
I can sense another inch west coming for the models.
Quoting 836. waccamatt:



IMO, faster means a track further west.
That's correct it indicates a stronger counter-clockwise flowing High Pressure Ridge. Also, a sharp 90 degree turn doesn't happen without a stall of some kind, think conservation of angular momentum. If you noticed on the Euro it shows a slow down almost to a stall before it begins to lift north, whereas the GFS keeps it moving, but on a more gradual turn.
Quoting 817. ProgressivePulse:

811. nrtiwlnvragn
9:36 PM GMT on September 29, 2016

Am I reading that correctly in that 10 sondes made it in but from an undefined source?


Actually it is 12 but the webpage does not break down the source of the dropsondes. I believe a few of Gonzo's dropsondes made it in, but no way to know how many.

Link
Quoting 847. StormJunkie:

Guessing Miss Piggy is refueling? Any idea when the next low level mission is.


C. 29/2215Z

so in 18min or so.

The GFS is now making a gentler turn to the NW towards Jamaica as it pulls up. Farther to the west in this run. Need to see a few more frames to see the end result
Quoting 850. ProgressivePulse:

I can sense another inch west coming for the models.


Yes. GFS already doing that in the current run
Quoting 844. Climate175:

Heading NW for Jamaica in 72 hrs.


That's already at or west of the same longitude as the NHCs day 4-5 position (75.5W). And moving NW... Interesting.
Quoting 774. BahaHurican:

The bad thing about a storm in the Caribbean is that it's nearly impossible for it to get out without serious implications for someone.

Worst case track would be across JA, across Cuba, through the NW Bahamas, and into FL or even GA .... a more directly Nward turn might be better in the long run ....

For Florida, yeah.
Matthew is going to bring both havoc and cleansing H2O where ever he roams.
Graphic done by anyone from this blog? ;-)




At this point, Jamaica is getting hit with a Cat 2 Hurricane.
Quoting 847. StormJunkie:

Guessing Miss Piggy is refueling? Any idea when the next low level mission is?


Miss Piggy did a Ferry flight from Tampa to St. Croix today. She will fly a research mission tomorrow. Next Air Force is about 6:15 PM takeoff.

Link
This is a bad set-up for FL, in my humble opinion. With the Euro showing stronger (merged ridging earlier) and now the Euro having this strong trough escape allowing the ridge to hold and potentially build back in......hopefully it's a trend that does not continue into tonight./tomorrow.
862. Ed22
Quoting 802. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Matthew starting to look like an angry Rabbit.
yes definitely.
Quoting 747. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

any thoughts on the trough arriving too quickly in the gulf to pull more the storm to the north in the pronounced form that it is currently expected?
I would bet, the trough will not be as strong, and it won't even reach the Gulf, as the high builds in from the north, and East.
Wow. The GFS takes Matthew right to the eastern end of Jamaica with the center looking to cross on a NW trajectory if the rest of the run holds this track. The pressure then seems unusually high though, at 990. Should be lower then I would think.

The upper air sampling is becoming increasingly important to help the models really tie down the track forecast.
This may be our last CV storm of the 2016 Hurricane Season

Maybe The Caymans will get some rain from this one.
Quoting 816. tc1120:

Really worried about the impacts to Jamaica. My family owns oceanfront land in a cove (no house yet, been developing plans for years now) in the Northeast portion in a small fishing village called Robins Bay (St. Mary's Parish). ...


Current 18z run is really a biggg threat to exactly this location. Hope it doesn't pan out.
East Cuba getting hit now.
If Matthew doesnt slow down, the track will shift west. It is almost to 70W already.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 863. NativeSun:

I would bet, the trough will not be as strong, and it won't even reach the Gulf, as the high builds in from the north, and East.
I dont know if it means anything but in the start of the week fox 13 tampa mets said this front would get tampa and not really drop the temps to much but bring much dryer air and rain chances were down around 20 percent through the weekend. I know cause a friend has a pool party planned...and we been watching. now there saying the front wont make it and rain chance is up above 50 percent all weekend.
Quoting 867. Climate175:

Western Cuba getting hit now.


Actually that is still eastern Cuba.
Quoting 779. ProgressivePulse:

This tight group continues to inch westward.




And will continue to do so, if this storm doesn't turn a little more towards the West, it might make it to South America.
In the big picture, the models have moved considerably west. There used to be a lot of tracks over Hispaniola and then out to the Atlantic. Now it's Cuba and Carolinas.
Quoting 861. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

This is a bad set-up for FL, in my humble opinion. With the Euro showing stronger (merged ridging earlier) and now the Euro having this strong trough escape allowing the ridge to hold and potentially build back in......hopefully it's a trend that does not continue into tonight./tomorrow.


No worries for FL for now, but people in FL should keep in eye on it though.
Quoting 859. Climate175:

At this point, Jamaica is getting hit with a Cat 2 Hurricane.

990 mbars is not exactly a Cat 2 hurricane, it's a low-end Cat 1 hurricane at best unless it's in a really, really high-pressure environment. Although the GFS seems to be rather conservative with intensity, so it's safe to assume that Matthew will be stronger than 990 mbars at that time.
GFS doesn't head north until crossing the eastern third of Jamaica. That would be really bad for Jamaica but then it heads into the mountains of Cuba which would do a number on the circulation. Any farther west would allow it to miss that mountain range and get into the very hot water South of Cuba. Some unpleasant scenarios opening up.

Quoting 867. Climate175:

Western Cuba getting hit now.

At least according to the GFS Matthew will hit the highest elvations of Cuba. I'v seen quiet a few storms get disrupted to the point where they struggle to ever reintensfy after traversing that area.
Quoting 871. rmbjoe1954:



Actually that is still eastern Cuba.
Silly me, I have seen the word west a lot, that is why I am thinking about it lol.
Quoting 875. NCHurricaneTracker69:


990 mbars is not exactly a Cat 2 hurricane, it's a low-end Cat 1 hurricane at best unless it's in a really, really high-pressure environment. Although the GFS seems to be rather conservative with intensity, so it's safe to assume that Matthew will be stronger than 990 mbars at that time.



It's a resolution grid spacing issue, if the resolution to put X amount of isobars in a grid space is limited, than the min pressure will show up higher than actual advertised intensity.
Link

Somebody 'splain this please...
Quoting 880. panamasteve:

Link

Somebody 'splain this please...

I died a bit watching that
Quoting 872. NativeSun:

And will continue to do so, if this storm doesn't turn a little more towards the West, it might make it to South America.


A lot of the models and ensembles on the SFWMD (Blank Grey Lines) are GFS based. Expect more westward shifts next update.
Quoting 876. kmanislander:

GFS doesn't head north until crossing the eastern third of Jamaica. That would be really bad for Jamaica but then it heads into the mountains of Cuba which would do a number on the circulation. Any farther west would allow it to miss that mountain range and get into the very hot water South of Cuba. Some unpleasant scenarios opening up.


You are correct sir. Westward trends will continue I fear eye will pass west of Jamaica on its way north and I do not need to elaborate on the path that leads us down.
Quoting 880. panamasteve:

Link

Somebody 'splain this please...

Sorry, put it in my blog earlier & forgot to bring it here..

GEOS-5 Rakes South America a little less hard. May impede the storm for a spell..

Along the west coast of Jamaica and up over Cuba. Has it hitting Cuba hard.

Then South Florida, up and down the West Coast til back to Tampa and move inland there..


Sort of a crazy run. It has leaned South/West this year..expected it to move right and it may more yet. GFS, HWRF & CMC are east of FL, EURO all over it and both sides. Most of the models do target Jamaica in like 3-4 days.



Quoting 848. jambev:

The Government is taking this very seriously and has already set in motion the OPED to ensure that we are as ready as we can be. The Met office has been issuing bulletins since yesterday. And, everybody in Jamaica has a cell phone including the most up to date gadgets.


That is great to hear. I know in the area were we have been going for a long time that apparently not many people are aware and/or concerned. Only one out of the five families we are friends with have TV. Most of them do have internet not but it is definitely spotty. Hope everyone keeps safe.
When will the models have the data from gonzo plane?
888. Ed22
I looks like this blog has stalled, any Recon data available? the latest information on Hurricane Matthew my weather enthusiasts.
And Matthew just intensified to a C2.

THAT'S STRONGER THAN PATRICIA