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Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in the Lesser Antilles Islands

By: Jeff Masters 3:23 PM GMT on September 28, 2016

Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the Lesser Antilles Islands thanks to newly-formed Tropical Storm Matthew. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found on Wednesday morning that Invest 97L had finally developed a closed circulation, and had surface winds near 60 mph in a powerful cluster of thunderstorms that was located about 50 miles east of Martinique at 9:22 am EDT. These strong winds will move over the islands of Martinique and Dominica early this afternoon, given Matthew’s westerly motion at 20 mph. At 11 am EDT, Dominica reported sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 53 mph, and Martinique reported sustained winds of 28 mph, gusting to 40 mph. Radar imagery out of Martinique and Barbados on Wednesday morning showed plenty of rotation to the storm’s echoes, and an increase in their intensity and areal coverage. Satellite loops showed that Matthew was developing a well-defined surface circulation, and had an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was growing more organized. Aiding development was moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and warm ocean waters of 29.5°C (85°F). The 8 am EDT Tuesday SHIPS model output analyzed 50 - 55% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere over Matthew, which is lower than optimal for tropical cyclone formation, and water vapor satellite loops showed Matthew was butting into a region of dry air that lay just west of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Lack of spin from being too close to the equator was less of a problem for Matthew than before, as the system had worked its way northwards to a latitude of 13°N. This is far enough from the equator for the storm to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire more spin of its own.


Figure 1. Barbados radar at 10:20 am EDT September 28, 2016 showed a large region of heavy rains from Matthew beginning to move into the Lesser Antilles Islands. The Hurricane Hunters found surface winds of 60 mph under the cell just east of Martinique. An "X" marks the center of Matthew. Image credit: Barbados Met Service.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Matthew taken at 10:30 am EDT September 28, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Two-day forecast for Matthew
Matthew will average a westerly motion at about 15 mph through Thursday morning. The core of the storm will pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday afternoon, with the storm’s strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4 - 8” affecting the islands just north of the center, including St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles—Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao—on Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and will likely escape receiving tropical storm winds, though rains of 1 - 2” can be expected. As Matthew passes through the southeastern Caribbean, it will be in an environment somewhat unfavorable for development. Tropical cyclones passing near the coast of South America often suck in dry continental air from the land areas to the south, and the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Matthew will have to contend with moderate wind shear and dry air through Friday. The last hurricane to pass through the southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane Tomas of 2010, degraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical depression due to high wind shear and dry air as it moved across the region. Expect only slow intensification of Matthew on Thursday and Friday.





Figure 3. Forecasts from the 00Z Wednesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by four days into the future. The two models have grown closer together in their solutions compared to Tuesday, but the European model still shows a considerably slower and more westerly track for Matthew than the GFS model.

Longer-range forecast for Matthew
Matthew is being steered by a ridge of high pressure that extends only as far west as the ABC islands. Matthew will slow down to a forward speed of 5 - 10 mph by Friday as it reaches the edge of this ridge, and the storm will maintain that slow forward speed though the weekend. A large upper-level low pressure system has separated from the jet stream and will settle over east-central U.S. late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull Matthew sharply to the north by the weekend, according to the Wednesday morning runs of the models. This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, with a landfall by the storm in eastern Cuba on Monday morning. Matthew is then predicted to move through the central Bahamas on Tuesday. The European model forecasts a later turn, with a landfall in Jamaica on Monday night, and then in eastern Cuba on Tuesday night. The 00Z Wednesday run of the UKMET model brings Matthew northward across Haiti on Monday and into the southeastern Bahamas by Tuesday. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 3), the long-range uncertainties in Matthew’s long-range track are high. Now that Matthew has finally established a coherent center of circulation, expect the forecast uncertainty to improve in this evening’s model runs. Matthew is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands, and residents of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a hurricane affecting them early next week.

We will be back this afternoon with an update on Matthew.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IDTH
As we found almost a year ago to this day, models will flip around and even the smallest differences in timing could change a systems path.





Nobody forget Joaquin and just how a few differences can change the path.

I had a feeling I'd be bringing this storm up quite a bit this season.
502. sigh
Quoting 373. david1979:

i think matthew is not far from being a hurricane now, the wind blows very hard

How high are you? Altitude, I mean.
NY metro/tri-state area be very alert for this storm..stay safe up there............
Bernie Rayno thinks the Gulf might have to deal with Matthew long term.
Quoting 503. nocanesplease:





This has definitely not dissipated.
Quoting 495. StormJunkie:



This shows exactly what I am talking about. See that black line? It is going to follow that track while it ramps up to a Cat 5, but because it ramps up so quickly, it is then going to turn due West and slam in to Belize. A very, very scary situation for these areas.


This is utter nonsense. At least provide a reason for these ramblings.
mat is getting vary vary large
Quoting 494. wpb:

euro trend east big time. these posted models have lost weight out liners now
never discount a model over another one, yes some are more RELIABLE than others but each are showing the atmospheric conditions acting differently and any one of them can be right. Ignorance can lead to massive problems, especially in meteorology where it is very hard to predict. Currently it looks like we have a consensus but we thought the same thing 3 days ago which both e GFS and Euro had Mathew hitting Western Cuba, a lot can change in 5 days.
Quoting 457. SLU:

Even though the "core" of Matthew is right over St. Lucia and Martinique being blasted with 75mph gusts, so far the weather has been very quiet here. Winds less than 20mph and just moderate rain. The inner core of Matthew is very weak with a broad area of light winds and the strong winds over 50 miles away from the center.

3:00 PM 77.0 °F - 77.0 °F 100% 29.71 in 0.6 mi SSE 5.8 mph - N/A Overcast


We had the same experience early this morning when the center was passing over us in the formative stages. The strongest weather still has to pull into the core. I will tell you that your action will start later this evening. Funny how there is all of this OTS talk when this system is currently affecting land areas, and has to do so again to get out of the Caribbean...
Quoting 492. nash36:



Ummm...

SJ was being sarcastic.


No matter what I was being, some one should have stepped up and called me an idiot. Made sure everyone else knew that I was talking nonsense. But apparently this blog has been taken over by Gen X syndrome where everyone gets a medal and if you call anyone else wrong, or have a debate with someone, or offend one person then the Mods will give you a ban.

This is exactly what happened when I pointed out that a blogger always wishcasts storms to hit their area and so what they say should be taken with a grain of salt. Apparently I was wrong for doing so. This place is slowly going down hill when you start censoring even the smallest things. It used to take curse words, links to dirty pictures (God rest his sole), or threats to people in order to get banned. Now discrediting someone who shouldn't have had credence in the first place is enough for a ban.

I'll probably get banned for this as well, but so be it. I don't believe the blog should be a place where heated and entertaining debates are frowned upon.
The tentacle from Antartica ...

Click to enlarge. Detail from here.

Severe weather warnings issued as a once in 50-year storm barrels towards the nations southeast
September 29, 20164:34am

With those latest news of the stunning storm in southern Australia a good night from Germany, still enjoying some last days of “Indian Summer” but with a bit of rain in the forecast (thankfully!).
And best wishes to the islands under strengthening toddler "Matthew"!
OK, enough of Matthew



Quoting 500. CitikatzSouthFL:


I do not like this one at all. That black line puts it right over my house in Florida!
we got 3 or 4 days of off and on rains the next 3 days or so south central Ontario with a fall touch too the atmosphere
we are watching waiting model consensus is coming around soon to where when and what
Mathew is looking very concerning for everyone along the Caribbean coast, it is looking very good and looks to be strengthening, Florida should monitor this storm closely. Stay safe everyone in its path.
Quoting 504. LargoFl:

NY metro/tri-state area be very alert for this storm..stay safe up there............


I think its time to ban the phrase "stay safe"
Quoting 462. GrandCaymanMed:

I really hope and pray the trough keeps this east of The Caymans! We do not need another Ivan!!!
You better pray that all that very hot water off the East Coast of the U.S. and Florida, begins to cool very quickly, or this storm will move further West as time goes by. That very warm water will help pump the ridge and intensify the high, thus pushing the storm more to the left. This is one of the many reason why the GFS su*ks, as it will not see this, but this is only one of the many reasons the GFS model needs to be shut down, and rebuilt from the ground up.
what people of martinique are experiencing now make me say that matthew is not a tropical, it is a hurricane now ,i am leaving on the height of the city fort de france
Quoting 510. StormJunkie:



No matter what I was being, some one should have stepped up and called me an idiot. Made sure everyone else knew that I was talking nonsense. But apparently this blog has been taken over by Gen X syndrome where everyone gets a medal and if you call anyone else wrong, or have a debate with someone, or offend one person then the Mods will give you a ban.

This is exactly what happened when I pointed out that a blogger always wishcasts storms to hit their area and so what they say should be taken with a grain of salt. Apparently I was wrong for doing so. This place is slowly going down hill when you start censoring even the smallest things. It used to take curse words, links to dirty pictures (God rest his sole), or threats to people in order to get banned. Now discrediting someone who shouldn't have had credence in the first place is enough for a ban.

I'll probably get banned for this as well, but so be it. I don't believe the blog should be a place where heated and entertaining debates are frowned upon.


I mean... I would have called you an idiot if I didn't know you were being facetious. Old dogs don't learn new tricks :p
Quoting 518. david1979:

what people of martinique are experiencing now make me say that matthew is not a tropical, it is a hurricane now ,i am leaving on the height of the city fort de france
Stay safe my friend.
Quoting 488. IKE:


He thought the K storm might go further west but it went just east of Bermuda.
Yeah I sense a bit of westcasting in his forecasts sometimes.


He'll land one of them like the proverbial blind squirrel.

"When you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time."

"Well why didn't you say that in the first place?"
Quoting 512. Grothar:

OK, enough of Matthew





I mentioned that this morning and nobody cared Gro
Quoting 516. NativeSun:

You better pray that all that very hot water off the East Coast of the U.S. and Florida, begins to cool very quickly, or this storm will move further West as time goes by. That very warm water will help pump the ridge and intensify the high, thus pushing the storm more to the left. This is one of the many reason why the GFS su*ks, as it will not see this, but this is only one of the many reasons the GFS model needs to be shut down, and rebuilt from the ground up.

I know you criticize the GFS often, but it's not that bad of a model as you make it to be. GFS was the first model to identify Matthew, as many as 10-11 days in advance - a few days before the EURO latched on to anything. In addition, GFS correctly predicted that Karl would stay weak while EURO showed it strengthening into a major hurricane. GFS may not be overall as good as EURO as a model, but it's definitely not the worst model out there.
Quoting 333. Grothar:

I'm not allowed to show later ones, but if you wait a few minutes, I will post them.





Just want to thank you and rest of the sane bloggers on here for all your insight and info/graphs/links....I have learned quite a lot over the years and always look forward to getting on the blog and seeing what's what!!Lord willing Matthew will not be another biblical storm for the Bahamas...however it certainly does look that way...again. Joaquin last year was close enough for me.
Quoting 510. StormJunkie:



No matter what I was being, some one should have stepped up and called me an idiot. Made sure everyone else knew that I was talking nonsense. But apparently this blog has been taken over by Gen X syndrome where everyone gets a medal and if you call anyone else wrong, or have a debate with someone, or offend one person then the Mods will give you a ban.

This is exactly what happened when I pointed out that a blogger always wishcasts storms to hit their area and so what they say should be taken with a grain of salt. Apparently I was wrong for doing so. This place is slowly going down hill when you start censoring even the smallest things. It used to take curse words, links to dirty pictures (God rest his sole), or threats to people in order to get banned. Now discrediting someone who shouldn't have had credence in the first place is enough for a ban.

I'll probably get banned for this as well, but so be it. I don't believe the blog should be a place where heated and entertaining debates are frowned upon.


As I have been told over the past umpteen years, "children come here to learn."

I typically begin to laugh (internally) with that comment. Those "kids" use curse words that make even ME blush! LOL!
Quoting 494. wpb:

euro trend east big time. these posted models have lost weight out liners now

What? What do you mean big time? It was a slight shift.
Quoting 514. masiello3:

Mathew is looking very concerning for everyone along the Caribbean coast, it is looking very good and looks to be strengthening, Florida should monitor this storm closely. Stay safe everyone in its path.


agreed mat is all so starting too get vary large storm is even if it miss FL too the S a little it could still bring high winds and heavy rains well away from the center
Quoting 510. StormJunkie:



No matter what I was being, some one should have stepped up and called me an idiot. Made sure everyone else knew that I was talking nonsense. But apparently this blog has been taken over by Gen X syndrome where everyone gets a medal and if you call anyone else wrong, or have a debate with someone, or offend one person then the Mods will give you a ban.

This is exactly what happened when I pointed out that a blogger always wishcasts storms to hit their area and so what they say should be taken with a grain of salt. Apparently I was wrong for doing so. This place is slowly going down hill when you start censoring even the smallest things. It used to take curse words, links to dirty pictures (God rest his sole), or threats to people in order to get banned. Now discrediting someone who shouldn't have had credence in the first place is enough for a ban.

I'll probably get banned for this as well, but so be it. I don't believe the blog should be a place where heated and entertaining debates are frowned upon.
no

and bans are more or less temporary as a form of maintaining a reasonable discussion and even some fun as long as its not a push shove punch stomp mentality

real world is bad enough leave that from this place
Very very strong winds in Martinique !!

Ça craque de partout et la pluie passe par les fenêtres !!
Ça rappelle Dean !!
Quoting 515. Gator13126:



I think its time to ban the phrase "stay safe"


Yea, it offends me..
Quoting 523. bigwes6844:


I mentioned that this morning and nobody cared Gro


yep and no one is going too when we got a storm knocking on there door whats this worry about mat for now and not some in that 1000 miles away mat is closer too home we will be talking about mat more then any thing right now then some in that is 1000 miles a way from land
Quoting 530. Bubu77:

Very very strong winds in Martinique !!

Ça craque de partout et la pluie passe par les fenêtres !!
Ça rappelle Dean !!
hurricane force sustain yet what are highest gusts would you think

Quoting 329. Kowaliga:

COC right over St. Lucia...


"St. Lucia in September" are the two keys to the doorway of disaster.
Impossible to accurately forecast this far out. Too many variables. Too much uncertainty. Like a chess player calculating 35 moves out.

Sure, someone will nail it, but akin to a hole-in-one.


Quoting 453. Kowaliga:


Quoting 468. win1gamegiantsplease:



Am...am I detecting a hint of wishcasting? From a pro?
Hey the Euro had a bad run, if you look at his latest video on their premium site, he states their is a one in four chance it goes OTS, or into the Western Gulf, with the bulk of the highest impact from the Southeastern Gulf to the Carolinas, with the bulls eye on South Florida and the Western Bahamas
Too soon to know.

Quoting 471. joseph1010:

Newbie here. Are we OTS?
Quoting 475. Camerooski:

Bastardi- "GFS too fast out of Caribbean. Euro looks good till day 5, then spurious trough off east coast. UKMET/JMA may be best around day 6."
Anyone that considers the "JMA" being the best model is obviously talking crap. Bastardi is overrated this storm won't come close to FL FYI NE and NC should watch tho
Wanna bet?
540. JRRP7
big shift to the east... EURO
If you want to keep up with what's going on with the Islands and have Twitter..

Jamaica Weather ‏@jamaicaweather 20m20 minutes ago

#TropicalStormMatthew #martinique right now️ #Matthew sustained winds of about 70 mph 112 km... http://fb.me/7gKjfcYPG
Quoting 537. HaoleboySurfEC:

Too soon to know.



How can it be OTS when it is over land now
543. SLU
Quoting 509. LemieT:



We had the same experience early this morning when the center was passing over us in the formative stages. The strongest weather still has to pull into the core. I will tell you that your action will start later this evening. Funny how there is all of this OTS talk when this system is currently affecting land areas, and has to do so again to get out of the Caribbean...


Yes the focus has already shifted. I'm expecting the winds to increase later as the center moves further west. Maybe something between the 50kts winds in Martinique and the 35kts winds in Barbados but for now we are having continuous rain. Flooding could be a big problem.
Quoting 536. NativeSun:

Hey the Euro had a bad run, if you look at his latest video on their premium site, he states their is a one in four chance it goes OTS, or into the Western Gulf, with the bulk of the highest impact from the Southeastern Gulf to the Carolinas, with the bulls eye on South Florida and the Western Bahamas


25% chance in the Eastern GOM
25% chance OTS
50% chance S. Florida

Who is "he" that states this about the Euro model group?
Quoting 501. IDTH:

As we found almost a year ago to this day, models will flip around and even the smallest differences in timing could change a systems path.





Nobody forget Joaquin and just how a few differences can change the path.

I had a feeling I'd be bringing this storm up quite a bit this season.
This trough will not be nearly as strong as that one.
I have a question. What does this mean.
Unknown Storm MATTHEW
It is on Tropical Tidbits.
Feeling somewhat confident that this won't affect our Keys trip next week. I hope...
Quoting 504. LargoFl:

NY metro/tri-state area be very alert for this storm..stay safe up there............


Whoaaaaa that looks like Sandy only even more ridiculous.
Quoting 539. LargoFl:




GEPS...sounds like something I had when I was a teenager.
Quoting 455. Patrap:



Matthew is putting on some weight pretty fast. This storm footprint is impressive.
T.C.F.W.
14L/TS/M/CX
MARK
14.25N/61.55W
man mat is going too be super big soon its all ready a vary large storm and it looks like it could even get larger soon it could take up all most the oh Caribbean Sea every one is going too feel some in from this even is the center is still well S

Quoting 541. ncstorm:

If you want to keep up with what's going on with the Islands and have Twitter..

Jamaica Weather ‏@jamaicaweather 20m20 minutes ago

#TropicalStormMatthew #martinique right now️ #Matthew sustained winds of about 70 mph 112 km... http://fb.me/7gKjfcYPG
6 HRS be cane
Quoting 546. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

I have a question. What does this mean.
Unknown Storm MATTHEW
It is on Tropical Tidbits.


I mean we dont really "know" Matthew yet. We've only known of him for a few hours and it would be rude to make assumptions about him.

We don't know his intentions or his decisions.
Quoting 496. markot:

look at gepts some people need to get off here. all you do is say ots fish.you don't know what yur talking about. read and learn.
And if your handle had an s at the end, you would be mark ots
True, my bad. Made an assumption that they were referring to CONUS only.

Quoting 542. blueyedbiker:


How can it be OTS when it is over land now
Anyone has the Martinique radar link?
Quoting 524. HurricaneFan:


I know you criticize the GFS often, but it's not that bad of a model as you make it to be. GFS was the first model to identify Matthew, as many as 10-11 days in advance - a few days before the EURO latched on to anything. In addition, GFS correctly predicted that Karl would stay weak while EURO showed it strengthening into a major hurricane. GFS may not be overall as good as EURO as a model, but it's definitely not the worst model out there.
The GFS is the worst tropical model their is, and the Euro doesn't see a far into the future as the GFS. The trouble is the model is the flagship of the U.S. models, and it's physics su*k. Spend the money and rebuild it from the ground up, so it could be a very good model, as good or better then the Euro, or JMA.
This thing will be much lower than 990 MBs in 72 hours. Intensity forecast is way off IMO. Look at the size and outflow right now.
560. IDTH
Quoting 545. NativeSun:

This trough will not be nearly as strong as that one.

I did not say it was.
Matthew is a big system, affecting the entire Lesser Antilles:



With St. Lucia currently in the bullseye. If this does become a major and undergoes an EWRC it could get massive...
Matthew is already doing some serious damage in the Lesser Antilles and I fear this is just the beginning. This could be the storm of the season.
Quoting 561. Envoirment:

Matthew is a big system, affecting the entire Lesser Antilles:



With St. Lucia currently in the bullseye. If this does become a major and undergoes an EWRC it could get massive...



is that a eye on the IR ?
Quoting 557. rockcity340:

Anyone has the Martinique radar link?


Link
Quoting 563. thetwilightzone:




is that a eye on the IR ?

You have got to be kidding
.
Quoting 544. Sfloridacat5:



25% chance in the Eastern GOM
25% chance OTS
50% chance S. Florida

Who is "he" that states this about the Euro model group?

JB.
Quoting 554. JrWeathermanFL:



I mean we dont really "know" Matthew yet. We've only known of him for a few hours and it would be rude to make assumptions about him.

We don't know his intentions or his decisions.
I know it will become a hurricane soon that I do know and its moving forward too the left of due west heading north 36 hrs after hurricane status with a moderate confidence level depending on later model runs/sys development high confidence will be likely
The next recon plane leaves at 22z - which is in under 2 hours I believe? Or 1?
Quoting 523. bigwes6844:


I mentioned that this morning and nobody cared Gro


I know how you feel. When I named the wave over Africa Nonoblob on the 19th and said this would be Matthew and would be a low rider into the Caribbean, I got laughed off the blog. :)
Quoting 562. LemieT:

Matthew is already doing some serious damage in the Lesser Antilles and I fear this is just the beginning. This could be the storm of the season.
maybe a century
Quoting 552. thetwilightzone:

man mat is going too be super big soon its all ready a vary large storm and it looks like it could even get larger soon it could take up all most the oh Caribbean Sea every one is going too feel some in from this even is the center is still well S



With a large circulation like Matthew, one thing to watch is if dry air from SA will get sucked into the core.
Quoting 570. Grothar:



I know how you feel. When I named the wave over Africa Nonoblob on the 19th and said this would be Matthew and would be a low rider into the Caribbean, I got laughed off the blog. :)
everyone laughs at the waves when they come off the verde but now well we gonna see who be laughing after this
Quoting 563. thetwilightzone:




is that a eye on the IR ?


It sure does look like its getting more organized.
Only time for a quick look.

My goodness Matthew is large. Impressive outflow in 3 of 4 quadrants and dry air is not going to be a problem.

EURO run was expected, it is overcompensating for the current Latitude. Expect the 00z models will run Matthew right through western Bahamas.

Becoming concerned that perhaps my view that the intensity was overdone was wrong.

Anyone from Grand Cayman and East should pay close attention. In particular, how far south this dips the next two keys is going to be very very important.

Quoting 573. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

everyone laughs at the waves when they come off the verde but now well we gonna see who be laughing after this


Well I hope not the tropical cyclone, they're scary as it is without an evil laugh.
Quoting 572. Ricki13th:


With a large circulation like Matthew, one thing to watch is if dry air from SA will get sucked into the core.
that would be good check it in
Quoting 523. bigwes6844:


I mentioned that this morning and nobody cared Gro

With all due respect to your earlier post; it was during a time when Matthew was being designated. Easy to overlook, choose to ignore your comment with that going on.
Quoting 540. JRRP7:

big shift to the east... EURO


It was only a slight shift

Wundermap image of tropical storm Matthew along with forecast.
Another wundermap picture of matthew.
Matthew...Water Vapor...

Could some one tell me where the past hurricane viewing thing on the wundermap now located?
be leave it or not it looks like there is a closed eye like thing on the IR i under line where it is at

Link

Is the purple hurricane force winds?
Quoting 586. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Is the purple hurricane force winds?


At flight level. Surface level winds are most likely 5 kts below that.
Quoting 586. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Is the purple hurricane force winds?
No, that's flight level winds.
Barbados is currently getting lathered with incessant heavy rain, wow. I have not heard about the flood locations yet but I am pretty sure that some are going to be quite impacted.

This storm is quite something.
590. IDTH

Quoting 571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe a century


Yeah this storm is going to take a rare path that is hardly ever seen if the models pan out.

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing

through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The

aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface

winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.

As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical

storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that

further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental

conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew

favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast

period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the

statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models

in deepening the system.




Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion

estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge

over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the

eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance

is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the

tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the

ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are

significant differences among the track models as to when the turn

takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone

northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing

developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track

lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.
Just spoke to a friend in Le Lementin with a personal weather station. He was surprised at intensity. Sustained at 50mph gusting at 65.

Have to think that the BP is going to be significantly lower next recon. 1002ish
Quoting 584. thetwilightzone:

be leave it or not it looks like there is a closed eye like thing on the IR i under line where it is at

Link


Radar doesn't support that yet and that is closer to the surface than what you are seeing on IR.
By the way, Hi Guys, been a while.
A year ago today I posted this:
https://icons.wxug.com/data/wximagenew/6/62901IL/ 8-800.jpg (copy and paste into address bar-couldn't link because I'm on mobile)
Anyone think I should make a similar image, but with Matthew instead?

I'll post pic when I'm back on a computer
Quoting 594. Michfan:



Radar doesn't support that yet and that is closer to the surface than what you are seeing on IR.


ok looked kind of odd there it all most look like a eye is trying too forum there but i gust not
It has been pretty blustery here in Dominica. So far we have had just over 2in of rain. The wind is the real issue. Constant gusts between 60 and 90kph. What I have been hearing is of a number of trees down throughout the island and quite a few areas are without electricity.
...Tropical storm conditions spreading across portions of the
Lesser Antilles...
Summary of 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.6n 61.3w
about 25 mi...40 km SW of St. Lucia
about 20 mi...35 km NNW of St. Vincent
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...W or 275 degrees at 20 mph...31 km/h
minimum central pressure...1008 mb...29.77 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 PM AST (1800 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.6 north, longitude 61.3 west. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move away
from the Windward Islands through this evening, and be over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center. Winds of 39 mph (63
km/h) were recently reported on Barbados, and a weather station on
Martinique recently observed sustained winds of 47 mph (75 km/h)
with gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h).
The minimum central pressure estimated from recent reconnaissance
data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within
the warning area this afternoon and continue into this evening.
Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 582. GeoffreyWPB:

Matthew...Water Vapor...




Dry air? Let me moisten my entire surroundings including South America...

Very impressive outflow.
Quoting 526. nash36:



As I have been told over the past umpteen years, "children come here to learn."

I typically begin to laugh (internally) with that comment. Those "kids" use curse words that make even ME blush! LOL!


I have been a member longer than most of you. It has been my experience that you just have to read the comments and it will become very clear in short order who you can trust to give accurate information. Just scroll past the rest.
Here is the 12z Euro Ensemble, still huge spread from Gulf to OTS after affecting the islands

603. IDTH

Quoting 588. HurricaneAndre:

No, that's flight level winds.

How do you equate what is at the surface?
Quoting 602. VAbeachhurricanes:

Here is the 12z Euro Ensemble, still huge spread from Gulf to OTS after affecting the islands



It looked like both the euro and gfs put it ots on this last run
607. Ed22
Quoting 572. Ricki13th:


With a large circulation like Matthew, one thing to watch is if dry air from SA will get sucked into the core.
Its pretty large storm but very organized now and in strengthening mode. Matthew has slowed little bit moving westward at 19 mph with winds at 60 mph and will continue to strengthens over the next 24 to 48 hours.
HAIL THE NEW ADVISORY
609. JKC
The outer fringes of Mathew are no affecting St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Strong gusts and heavy downpours over the North East side of the Islands. Power is out too in sections.

NWS San Juan Please update the impact for USVI
610. SLU
Quoting 561. Envoirment:

Matthew is a big system, affecting the entire Lesser Antilles:



With St. Lucia currently in the bullseye. If this does become a major and undergoes an EWRC it could get massive...


"Bullseye" might be too strong a word to use since we haven't had a gust over 25mph yet despite the angry looking satellite pics. The core is very broad. The real winds are in the arc from Martinique to Barbados.
It needs to stay away from the gulf, which I think it will.
613. IDTH
This video is about 2 hours old from Mark Sudduth but still the MJO and a CCKW combined with Matthew = BAD.
Link
It looks like a big shift to the east on all the models... Am I wrong
Despite the Euro operational run, the Euro Ensembles are showing fairly strong ridging at days 7-10.

Quoting 605. SecretStormNerd:


How do you equate what is at the surface?


Here is a good read for questions like that. Generally a 20% reduction as far as I recall depending on the height of the aircraft.
Link
618. JRRP7
shift to the east
Quoting 615. SavannahStorm:

Despite the Euro operational run, the Euro Ensembles are showing fairly strong ridging at days 7-10.




That's because the ensembles know how canes can pump the ridge.
620. A4Guy
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and aircraft data from earlier this afternoon
indicate that the circulation of Matthew has continued to become
better defined. There has also been an increase in convection
just northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt
based on the earlier aircraft data. The next Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew is scheduled for this evening.
Although the increase in convection suggests that the system may be
trying to establish an inner core, recent microwave and radar data
have not revealed a significant increase in organization or banding
so far. The aircraft also did not report any pressure fall during
its mission. Based on these trends, little change in intensity is
predicted in the short-range, but warm waters and low shear are
expected to allow for steady strengthening while Matthew moves over
the eastern and central Caribbean during the next few days. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity
consensus through 24 hours, but is close to the consensus and the
statistical models after that time.

Matthew is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 16 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory. The tropical cyclone should move generally westward
during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast has
been nudged northward through 72 hours, to be closer to the new
model consensus. After day 3, Matthew is expected to turn
northwestward as it nears the western portion of the ridge. The
overall track envelope has shifted slightly eastward at days 4 and
5, and the NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. It should
be noted that are still significant differences among the models in
how soon and how sharply Matthew turns northwestward and northward
late in the forecast period. Users are reminded that the average
NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240
miles, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 13.8N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.4N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.1N 71.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 14.2N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.8N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
New advisory out, the (former) Netherlands Antilles are under TS watch, cone seemingly got wider?

Quoting 562. LemieT:

Matthew is already doing some serious damage in the Lesser Antilles and I fear this is just the beginning. This could be the storm of the season.


I kinda wonder if cariboy is getting the rain he's wanting because of Matthews large size...
623. IDTH

Quoting 619. StormJunkie:



That's because the ensembles know how canes can pump the ridge.

I may be a noob to tropical stuff, but I've never heard in my life a tropical system "pumping the ridge." What the heck does that even mean?
Sweet!!! don't have to postpone that fishing trip after all. ;-)

LOL

Quoting 623. IDTH:





"Uncertainty Parallelogram" ROFL
I'm waiting, maybe it already happened. Someone exploding. Limbs gunked to the walls that the NHC track shifted a bit east. I'm just happy (turning blind eye to death and destruction) there is finally something going somewhat according to plan in the Atlantic. Matthew we shall see who wore it better. Hazel or you. (going based off a long term track similar to that like I have been since Saturday)
Quoting 624. Skyepony:


Tropical storm / Hurricane Matthew passing Martinique 9/28/2016
monosodiumgiftonat




Why in the world are they not taking down the hammock hahaha
Quoting 619. StormJunkie:



That's because the ensembles know how canes can pump the ridge.


Thus the uncertainty after the next 5 days.
Sustained 45-50mph my guess. Hello Matthew. Long 10 days ahead I fear.

Quoting 624. Skyepony:


Tropical storm / Hurricane Matthew passing Martinique 9/28/2016
monosodiumgiftonat

Reporting LIVE from st.maarten 18.3n 63.3w some very rainy weather sky is black just the type of weather i was looking foward too not to much wind but rain loving this thank you T.S matthew
mat is the strongest TS at starting winds we may have ever had


ALEX starting winds 50mph

JULIA starting winds 40 mph

EARL starting winds 45 mph

mat starting winds 60 mph
Quoting 625. SSL1441:


I may be a noob to tropical stuff, but I've never heard in my life a tropical system "pumping the ridge." What the heck does that even mean?


Now see what you've done, SJ?

It's an inside joke, SSL. Pay no attention to the peanut gallery...
Quoting 614. hurrikanehunter14:

It looks like a big shift to the east on all the models... Am I wrong


The operational runs, yes. Many of the ensembles of several models went West.
636. 7544
Quoting 514. masiello3:

Mathew is looking very concerning for everyone along the Caribbean coast, it is looking very good and looks to be strengthening, Florida should monitor this storm closely. Stay safe everyone in its path.


as bryan norcross posted real good advice for mathew

Computer-model forecasts more than a few days in the future for systems that have not yet developed are for amusement and awareness only. They remind us that hurricane season is still in full swing. From the Gulf coast through Florida and up the East Coast, vigilance and readiness are required.

It is hard not to look at the model forecasts for next week and worry and wonder. But it is wasted energy. Use that energy for a trip to the store for batteries. You can always use them, and if suddenly everybody else gets the idea they need batteries too, you will feel pretty smart when the stores run out. And maybe pick up the other hurricane stuff while you are out.


Deleted at the request of Taz.
Quoting 625. SSL1441:


I may be a noob to tropical stuff, but I've never heard in my life a tropical system "pumping the ridge." What the heck does that even mean?


lol. Someone needs to enter a Wiki article on "Pumping the ridge"
000
WTNT34 KNHC 282042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...CENTER OF MATTHEW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 62.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Bonaire. The government of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Curacao and the government of Aruba has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Aruba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 62.0 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
move away from the Windward Islands through this evening, and be
over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center. A wind gust to 54 mph (87
km/h) was reported at Martinique within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands
within the warning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba, beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 638. StormJunkie:



lol. Someone needs to enter a Wiki article on "Pumping the ridge"


Ivan was the first ridge pumper I met.
the iss will be making a pass over Matthew in just over 20 minutes!
Quoting 635. ProPoly:



The operational runs, yes. Many of the ensembles of several models went West.


Thanks :)
since we have a storm impacting land can we please do with out the off topic photos stuff this blog should be clean has it can be so that way if some one is wanting too find info about some in they can find it with with out this blog filled with off topic photo stuff
Quoting 643. thetwilightzone:

since we have a storm impacting land can we please do with out the off topic photos stuff this blog should be clean has it can be so that way if some one is wanting too find info about some in they can find it with with out this blog filled with off topic photo stuff


Righto, Taz. i'll remove.
645. ackee
Quoting 635. ProPoly:



The operational runs, yes. Many of the ensembles of several models went West.
I think oz operational run of the major model should be interesting
OK now I am worried. Matthew is not pointed at Florida out of the gate :-b
Officially have no fricken clue where Matthew will go. All I know is it's gonna be devastating for some people, and if I had the power I would take the brunt of Matthew here in SFL over the super poor communities in those carribean islands, sadly doesn't look like Cuba, Jamaica, or Haiti will get out of this one....
Quoting 622. SSL1441:



I kinda wonder if cariboy is getting the rain he's wanting because of Matthews large size...


Any of the Antilles will be getting a whopping amount of water. Matthew is now affecting S.tLucia, Martinique etc and yet we in Barbados are still getting lathered. This is a huge storm and when it pulls together some more is going to become very damaging.

Quoting 634. SavannahStorm:



Now see what you've done, SJ?

It's an inside joke, SSL. Pay no attention to the peanut gallery...


You can't just leave them hanging like that SS. Now SSL is even more curious I'm sure. So while we have a minute between model runs, new sat images, and further speculation....Let me give you the story of "Pumping the ridge"

A long time ago in a blog far away, there was a self proclaimed meteorologist blogger. We shall call this blogger "Footy" for the sake of this story (to protect the innocent...or not so innocent and all). Well every time a tropical system ramped up, 'ol Footy would start telling us about how hurricanes can pump the ridge. Inevitably, models would show said system curving before reaching the CONUS...But 'ol Footy insisted that the hurricanes were going to come further west than the models showed. When asked why, Footy would respond with "Canes pump the ridge". He would go on to explain that due to the rotation of the storm, and its strength...It would basically continually push the steering ridge further and further out in front of the storm. Hence the storm would just continue to travel West. Now of course all of that is nonsense....But don't tell 'ol Footy that cause rumor has it his ghost still haunts these pages.
Quoting 626. pingon:

Sweet!!! don't have to postpone that fishing trip after all. ;-)


Look at the coast of Africa. I think that needs watching
How much recon data will be in the 18z GFS run?
now back on topic with the weather is that a CDO or eye fourming in the midded?

If anyone one here cares this is what JB has... He has something against FL lol
Quoting 621. skycycle:

New advisory out, the (former) Netherlands Antilles are under TS watch, cone seemingly got wider?




I've also noticed that Matthew has slowed down a bit too.
At 11am edt it was 21 mph
At 2pm edt it was 20mph
Now its at 18mph
nap time for me back around 5pm
Much more European ensemble members west of the operational... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
659. ackee
The 18z run of The GFs would this run have all recon information from this morning ??
Quoting 652. HurricaneAndre:

Look at the coast of Africa. I think that needs watching
It was sarcasm Andre!
661. ackee
The 18z run of The GFs would this run have all recon information from this morning ??
Quoting 648. Camerooski:

Officially have no fricken clue where Matthew will go. All I know is it's gonna be devastating for some people, and if I had the power I would take the brunt of Matthew here in SFL over the super poor communities in those carribean islands, sadly doesn't look like Cuba, Jamaica, or Haiti will get out of this one....


This is exactly what I'm thinking. Someone's gonna get hit and get hit hard. The only question is who.
Some fllooding in Barbados, just a few pics, there are likely many more around. Not my photos. This was a few hours ago, there has been a whole lot of rain since.

Sorry, had an issue posting.
Quoting 651. StormJunkie:



You can't just leave them hanging like that SS. Now SSL is even more curious I'm sure. So while we have a minute between model runs, new sat images, and further speculation....Let me give you the story of "Pumping the ridge"

A long time ago in a blog far away, there was a self proclaimed meteorologist blogger. We shall call this blogger "Footy" for the sake of this story (to protect the innocent...or not so innocent and all). Well every time a tropical system ramped up, 'ol Footy would start telling us about how hurricanes can pump the ridge. Inevitably, models would show said system curving before reaching the CONUS...But 'ol Footy insisted that the hurricanes were going to come further west than the models showed. When asked why, Footy would respond with "Canes pump the ridge". He would go on to explain that due to the rotation of the storm, and its strength...It would basically continually push the steering ridge further and further out in front of the storm. Hence the storm would just continue to travel West. Now of course all of that is nonsense....But don't tell 'ol Footy that cause rumor has it his ghost still haunts these pages.


I'm wondering if that story is true or not, but I love it nonetheless. Pumping the ridge. Lol.
Quoting 624. Skyepony:


Tropical storm / Hurricane Matthew passing Martinique 9/28/2016
monosodiumgiftonat
------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------
I am out of practice my comment was included in this image I quoted! LOL

this person did not prepare their back yard at all for this storm. The hammock should have been taken down and some of those potted plants brought in or at least closer to the sheltered side of the house.
Thanks Skye.

Hi everyone, yes I am here lurking a little more than usual again. I suspect I will be here a lot over the next week or two. Thanks for all the good info!
Gams
Proposed Gonzo flight track tomorrow afternoon



Quoting 664. SSL1441:



I'm wondering if that story is true or not, but I love it nonetheless. Pumping the ridge. Lol.


I was a lurker back then and yes it is true.


It's kinda far out but the GFS spins up a fish storm in the mid-Atlantic after Matthew.
Quoting 638. StormJunkie:



lol. Someone needs to enter a Wiki article on "Pumping the ridge"


Pumped ridges have beautiful feet...one of their many attributes.
Quoting 659. ackee:

The 18z run of The GFs would this run have all recon information from this morning ??






Example of RECCO


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:40Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 17:34Z on Wednesday
Coordinates: 15.1N 61.6W
Location: 21 statute miles (33 km) to the SW (226°) from Roseau, Dominica.
Pressure Altitude: 460 meters (1,509 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 59 knots (From the E at ~ 67.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 22°C (72°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 19°C (66°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Thunderstorm(s)
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
925 mb Surface Altitude: 772 geopotential meters (2,533 geopotential feet)

Additional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 90° at 45 knots (From the E at ~ 51.7 mph)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 41 knots (~ 47.2 mph)
Quoting 614. hurrikanehunter14:

It looks like a big shift to the east on all the models... Am I wrong

No, you're correct. The Euro really came east this last time. Probably because it sees Mathew as a stronger storm. BUT... all of these models go back and forth like a windshield wipers at times. Just got to watch the trend.

672. A4Guy
Seems like this comment from NHC is aimed at the WU blog :-)

It should be noted that are still significant differences among the models in
how soon and how sharply Matthew turns northwestward and northward
late in the forecast period. Users are reminded that the average
NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240
miles, respectively.
Quoting 668. NCHurricaneTracker69:



It's kinda far out but the GFS spins up a fish storm in the mid-Atlantic after Matthew.

That looks like a subtropical cyclone. In October, you tend to get more storms of non-tropical origin than earlier in the season.
Quoting 667. Bucsboltsfan:



I was a lurker back then and yes it is true.
Def. true. Poor Storm W was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo
Matthew looking impressive on satellite. This is going to be an interesting one to track. As someone who lives in Florida, I will be watching closely.
Quoting 674. Clearwater1:

Def. true. Poor Storm W was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo


Why did i think a certain blogger from the "carolinas" coined that phrase?
Quoting 655. Camerooski:

If anyone one here cares this is what JB has... He has something against FL lol


Expand that cone from the gulf coast to Maine and it'll be about right. ;)
Long Time lurker ---> First Post

What are the long thin lines coming of South America

Seem to be asscociated with the dry air, but to perfectly straight, or are the sat pic artifacts?

Thanks

Quoting 667. Bucsboltsfan:



I was a lurker back then and yes it is true.
Def. true. Poor Storm W was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo
Quoting 676. K8eCane:



Why did i think a certain blogger from the "carolinas" coined that phrase?
Nope, lives in Palm Harbor Fl.
Quoting 677. MrTornadochase:


Expand that cone from the gulf coast to Maine and it'll be about right. ;)


Yes the Gulf is still very much in play, especially the western gulf
Quoting 676. K8eCane:


Why did i think a certain blogger from the "carolinas" coined that phrase?

Oh, wow, lol. Some distant day in the future (if there is any due to GW, *cough*) a smart student might achieve his PhD with figuring out our old WU myths and truths :-))
Quoting 674. Clearwater1:

Def. true. Poor 'ol Footy was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo


Hey now, let's keep the record straight. 1st. We are maintaining anonymity to protect all parties involved. 2nd. "Pumping the ridge" had NOTHING to do with 'ol Footy getting banned.

Little further N & W and it will finally get in to the E 1km view.

For the readers like me who need a refresher in eastern Caribbean geography... CLink here for a good map!
Thanks Barefoot! Good to see you and glad you posted this map of the Caribbean. Gams





Quoting 683. Barefootontherocks:

For the readers like me who need a refresher in eastern Caribbean geography... CLink here for a good map!

Quoting 658. Camerooski:

Much more European ensemble members west of the operational... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Ensambles have been west of the operational run for at least the past 5 days. I'm more inclined to trust them as the ridge has been underestimated the ridging this season.
Quoting 674. Clearwater1:

Def. true. Poor Storm W was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo
Far more involved than that, the banning, and we are likely treading on thin ice ourselves by discussing it.
bf out.
Quoting 685. MrTornadochase:


Ensambles have been west of the operational run for at least the past 5 days. I'm more inclined to trust them as the ridge has been underestimated the ridging this season.


Well if the ridge had some self confidence, maybe it would not underestimate itself lol
Quoting 676. K8eCane:



Why did i think a certain blogger from the "carolinas" coined that phrase?


You're thinking of presslord. Although he did not coin the term, he found many a colorful way to use the term.

Only a couple hours old. Looks like may be trying to get better organized around 14N 62W?



689. flsky
Quoting 674. Clearwater1:

Def. true. Poor Storm W was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo

Not a nice guy. More to it than you seem to know.
Quoting 684. seflagamma:

Thanks Barefoot! Good to see you and glad you posted this map of the Caribbean. Gams






YW, Gamms. Last time I remember looking at eastern Caribbean island geography was when Dominica was hit a few years ago.

You stay and be, you know, safe, up there in FL, USA! :)
this run, likely due to the HH findings, has the storm a tad bit west 54 hours out, maybe 20-30 miles, could bring Jamaica back into it on the GFS model.
Quoting 683. Barefootontherocks:

For the readers like me who need a refresher in eastern Caribbean geography... CLink here for a good map!


Yes, someone posted earlier about something affecting the Netherlands Antilles, which is confusing and not really correct, since there are two distinct groups of the N.A. separated by a thousand kilometers or so and consisting of three islands each. The southern, or ABC, islands, off the coast of Venezuela, and the small islands in the Leewards - Saba, St. Eustasius, and part of Saint Martin, known in Dutch as Sint Maarteen.
I might not know a lot, but I do know that I have had a million ants enter my home within the last two days. They are on my table and they never have been before. I'll decide by Sunday if I should worry about my new friends.
Quoting 678. ArmyTomFL:

Long Time lurker ---> First Post

What are the long thin lines coming of South America

Seem to be asscociated with the dry air, but to perfectly straight, or are the sat pic artifacts?

Thanks



I might be wrong but it's just normal daytime clouds getting pulled into Matthew 's circulation.

Growing green on Matthew's cloud tops.
lets move on or I will go back and wipe all reference too it from here
18z GFS a little further south and west of the 12z through 72 hours
I'm scared living in South Florida right now. Will this system head in our direction, or will it barely miss us?

I'm prepared either way, but on the positive side, my university classes might get cancelled next week.
Quoting 685. MrTornadochase:


Ensambles have been west of the operational run for at least the past 5 days. I'm more inclined to trust them as the ridge has been underestimated the ridging this season.


Im actually thinking Galveston to Brownsville
Quoting 693. SecretStormNerd:

I might not know a lot, but I do know that I have had a million ants enter my home within the last two days. They are on my table and they never have been before. I'll decide by Sunday if I should worry about my new friends.
well if they gather among the corners of the eaves around the top of the house put an axe and sledge hammer in the attic just in case
Recon obs coming in, they are about to be wheels up.
Matthew's got a nasty combination of large moisture field, large circulation and an anticyclone. Dry air and shear aren't going to stop it.
Just for fun, here are my predicted probabilities of where Matthew will ultimately end up:
A) Central America/Mexico- 5%
B) Gulf coast (excluding Florida)- 5%
C) Florida itself- 30%
D) eastern seaboard (GA to NE US)- 40%
E) out to sea- 20%
This is just my educated guess based on the computer models, climatology, and weather trends over the United States the next 7 to 10 days. Feel free to critique this or provide your similar opinions :-)
Not a massive shift west but a shift west none the less. Matt looking to try to set up a feeder band to the south and the North Right now as seen on the IR
705. wpb
Quoting 698. birdsrock2016:

I'm scared living in South Florida right now. Will this system head in our direction, or will it barely miss us?

I'm prepared either way, but on the positive side, my university classes might get cancelled next week.
not to worry its hurricane season we all see these crazy tracks and forecast.
time to worry is when and if a watch is isused that gives you three days to prepare. as of now just stay turned as we all r
KOTG, it's all good. No need to go throwing the gavel around. Just mixing a little entertainment in with waiting on the 18z GFS and Recon to make its way in to the storm.

Very cold cloud tops continue to fire up near the center.

Quoting 704. masiello3:

Not a massive shift west but a shift west none the less. Matt looking to try to set up a feeder band to the south and the North Right now as seen on the IR


All the credible 12z models actually converged east to agree more with the GFS.... for now. Most notable, GFDL had been holding out as a west outlier at 140knots at 126 hours, but has now made a significant jog to the east.
18zGFS just shifted 100 miles back west..... My head hurts.
Quoting 693. SecretStormNerd:

I might not know a lot, but I do know that I have had a million ants enter my home within the last two days. They are on my table and they never have been before. I'll decide by Sunday if I should worry about my new friends.


Maybe that's a signal it's time to clean the house.
Gfs a couple miles west this run
Quoting 710. chrisdscane:

Gfs a couple miles west this run


Latest frame right now. Source.
Quoting 698. birdsrock2016:

I'm scared living in South Florida right now. Will this system head in our direction, or will it barely miss us?

I'm prepared either way, but on the positive side, my university classes might get cancelled next week.

LOL I said the same thing last week! Where do you go?
The GFS is no longer making Matthew do the 90 degree turn up north. It's now making it go NW. If the GFS is consistent with the NW movement instead of the 90 degree turn, it may just be a bad omen for me and fellow FL bloggers
Another round of heavy rain has just started here again.
Quoting 713. isothunder67:

The GFS is no longer making Matthew do the 90 degree turn up north. It's now making it go NW. If the GFS is consistent with the NW movement instead of the 90 degree turn, it may just be a bad omen for me and fellow FL bloggers


If its still doing that on Sunday, then you can worry.
Quoting 708. Camerooski:

18zGFS just shifted 100 miles back west..... My head hurts.

Its mostly for entertainment for now...
717. IDTH

Quoting 709. StormHype:



Maybe that's a signal it's time to clean the house.

HAHA! Jokes on you! I just cleaned this whole house spotless on Sunday =)
Quoting 693. SecretStormNerd:

I might not know a lot, but I do know that I have had a million ants enter my home within the last two days. They are on my table and they never have been before. I'll decide by Sunday if I should worry about my new friends.


Where are you?
Hey everyone, what's your best satellite pic site? You know, the most functions and pretty colors?
Matthew moving NNW now at 126hrs

Windshield wipers = on
Quoting 679. Clearwater1:

Def. true. Poor Storm W was banned for that comment. My how we have now evolved. Started his own site. Nice guy and smart too. New his stuff. Retired military met, I think. Anyway, Mathew is not going to pump the the ridge. imo Nope, lives in Palm Harbor Fl.


Lives very close to me.
Quoting 714. LemieT:

Another round of heavy rain has just started here again.

Thanks, good luck! But instead of "here" just write the name of your island, please. Would help a lot of readers, including me. Our memories are weak :-(
Quoting 702. ProPoly:

Matthew's got a nasty combination of large moisture field, large circulation and an anticyclone. Dry air and shear aren't going to stop it.


nothing going to stop it this may be the monster we all fear

wake me up when September ends
so that I may see the nightmare October brings
Quoting 709. StormHype:



Maybe that's a signal it's time to clean the house.

Maybe there's an aardvark in the neighborhood.
Quoting 717. IDTH:




Caribbean looks like it's having a party with a lot of confetti.
18Z With recon data back westward, headed towards the East Coast.
WOAH Big shift WEST
Quoting 719. SunnyDaysFla:



Where are you?

I am located in the Lake Worth area.
730. ackee
12z GFS vs 18z Gfs the 18Z GFS shifted slightly west 102 hours I think oz run of the GFS should have all the info from recon that will be interesting to watch

Has the high building back from the East much faster this run and the High to the North strengthening and moving south faster. don't want anything over the Gulf stream threatening the coast, especially nothing organized.

and its trapped.
Quoting 727. reedzone:

18Z With recon data back westward, headed towards the East Coast.


Hi Alan-

So everyone from Fl- Maine need to be alert.
Yeah, just a tiny (very tiny) shift to the west in the 18Z GFS.
735. TXCWC
Where's the exit? The trend seems to be less East Coast trough. Out to sea definitely not guaranteed.
736. ackee
I think the oz Euro and GFs track could shift further west that most important run to watch tonight
Quoting 728. cabice:

WOAH Big shift WEST


An afternoon swim shift to the west for Florida.
Waiting to see how close it comes to OBX.
Quoting 736. ackee:

I think the oz Euro and GFs track could shift further west that most important run to watch tonight
that's the one I await then the cat will be out of the bag sorta speak
Looks like OBX on the 18z.
Quoting 723. barbamz:


Thanks, good luck! But instead of "here" just write the name of your island, please. Would help a lot of readers, including me. Our memories are weak :-(


Sorry bar, I'm in Barbados.
Quoting 733. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Alan-

So everyone from Fl- Maine need to be alert.


Hi Joe, this latest run, which has some data from recon takes Matthew straight to NC.
742. wpb
18z gfs run much faster and tad west at 168
Quoting 735. TXCWC:

Where's the exit? The trend seems to be less East Coast trough. Out to sea definitely not guaranteed.


That setup has no exit.
Quoting 740. LemieT:

Sorry bar, I'm in Barbados.

Thanks Lemie! Greetings to Barbados from mid Germany!
Hey SLU, how is it for your guys now? Must be pretty intense now on the east side of the center.
I do not like the spread of the Euro ensemble members. It could go anywhere at this point, we really have no idea. I hope Nerds "ants" are sensing it off the East coast, but sure won't count on it. West coast of Florida is not out of the game.
In the GFS, the 500mb steering layer after 120 hours becomes the most tangled mess I have ever seen. Just absolute garbage. No use in watching the models beyond 96 hours or so.
Stays just offshore the OBX on the 18Z run.
The scary thing is that we have several days still of these models going back and forth. Will it closer to the east coast? or will it not? leaving all of us who live on the coast on edge. Going to be interesting.
For those in Southern Florida we need to keep a very close eye on the situation, even though a landfall is unlikely but I do see Matthew coming very close to the SE florida coast regardless I have a feeling if this track holds true Tropical Storm Watches may be needed with the shear size of the system and the wind Field
751. wpb
Quoting 747. SavannahStorm:

In the GFS, the 500mb steering layer after 120 hours becomes the most tangled mess I have ever seen. Just absolute garbage. No use in watching the models beyond 96 hours or so.five star quote
This might change

Last minute NE turn towards Canada... Still, a westward shift on the model.
754. SLU
Quoting 745. LemieT:

Hey SLU, how is it for your guys now? Must be pretty intense now on the east side of the center.


Yes the winds are the highest so far. Getting gusts to 40kts and counting.
Quoting 752. Grothar:

This might change




I will wait to see the models' solutions after Sunday unless the timeline is pushed up.
So many variables. The timing of the trough, its orientation and the upper level high in the southeast...just to name a few.

757. IDTH

Good afternoon; I'm new and just wanted to get the opinions of some of the expert guys in this blog; well here it goes.

I' flying to Montego Bay on Saturday Oct. 1st, to me it looks like Jamaica might be a direct hit. Just looking for some guidance on what I should do; maybe cancel?

Thank you;

Chiliaxin
Quoting 748. Sfloridacat5:

Stays just offshore the OBX on the 18Z run.



That would be really bad for the OBX
760. 7544
blog keeps frezzing up and lagging cant scroll to the coments anyone else have this promblem tia
Quoting 724. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



nothing going to stop it this may be the monster we all fear

wake me up when September ends
so that I may see the nightmare October brings


18z GFS has a 988mb storm off VA Beach - not exactly the end of the world?
Matthew mostly moves
many miles meandering
malevolently
Quoting 750. Seflhurricane:

For those in Southern Florida we need to keep a very close eye on the situation, even though a landfall is unlikely but I do see Matthew coming very close to the SE florida coast regardless I have a feeling if this track holds true Tropical Storm Watches may be needed with the shear size of the system and the wind Field
Why do you say that, this storm is still as likely to enter the western Gulf as it is to hit the East Coast. Florida is in the center of the models, If you live their, or anywhere else from Pensacola, to the Carolinas, you need to be prepared for this storm.
Quoting 763. NativeSun:

Why do you say that, this storm is still as likely to enter the western Gulf as it is to hit the East Coast. Florida is in the center of the models, If you live their, or anywhere else from Pensacola, to the Carolinas, you need to be prepared for this storm.


I think you mean Eastern Gulf and I am not sure why it would be likely at this point based on the forecast tracks
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 761. Gator13126:



18z GFS has a 988mb storm off VA Beach - not exactly the end of the world?


I do not think you were looking at the surface pressure and 10m wind speed on the GFS. More like ~940 mb.

767. ackee
Quoting 738. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's the one I await then the cat will be out of the bag sorta speak
because those runs will have the full Recon data can't wait to see what happens on those runs
Quoting 761. Gator13126:



18z GFS has a 988mb storm off VA Beach - not exactly the end of the world?
I know you know storm intensity is a great unknown and that it is normally an as it happens forecast
Correct models tend to overdue troughs and underestimate ridges. The main force pulling it due North which is a cutoff low close move out or be weaker than whats being depicted. But a stronger storm will be able to erode the western periphery of a high and respond more to the weakness. Still plenty more model runs to digest
Quoting 759. Brock31:



That would be really bad for the OBX


At least the strongest part of the storm (the east side) would stay offshore. Main issue would be beach erosion from large surf.
But most likely the track will change. It would be sooooo much worse if the system made landfall and moved inland.
Quoting 761. Gator13126:



18z GFS has a 988mb storm off VA Beach - not exactly the end of the world?


You're not looking at the full resolution run. GFS has it at 945mb off the coast of NC/VA by 180 hours.
772. TXCWC
A track NE from here with the Ridge and Troughs placements makes no sense. I think the GFS is east coast bigoted.
773. SLU
Winds now. 45mph gusts to at least 60mph and moderate rain.
TS Matthew is the real deal and definitely by far the healthiest looking wave coming through the Lesser Antilles in years (that I recall seeing at least). I am staying in SE PA and it looks like Matthew might be at least as likely to eventually affect us here versus the FL East Coast (?). Too early to tell but I doubt this ends up causing major problems in FL, maybe tropical storm strength outer fringes on the SE Coast of FL.
776. 606
Hello Everyone the wind is increasing here in St. Lucia and the rain is relentless. I think this system is developing over us. Keep the people of St. Lucia in your prayers. It is getting SCARY, Reminds me of Hurricane ALLEN
Quoting 744. barbamz:


Thanks Lemie! Greetings to Barbados from mid Germany!


Greetings. ;-)