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97L Approaches Tropical Storm Strength

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 10:42 PM GMT on September 27, 2016

Air Force Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a closed circulation in the midst of Invest 97L, but the system is still on the verge of becoming a tropical storm. Flight-level winds at 2034Z (4:34 pm EDT) were sustained at up to 36 knots (41 mph) on the northwest side of 97L. This translates to ground-level sustained winds of around 32 knots (37 mph), or just below the 39-mph threshold for tropical storm formation. However, a tropical wave cannot be classified by NHC as a tropical depression or tropical storm until it has a closed circulation. The lack of a fully closed circulation was manifested in much weaker winds on the south side of 97L. Southwest winds at flight level were only about 5-6 knots, and no significant westerly winds were found.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 97L at 2115Z (5:15 pm EDT) Tuesday, September 27, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

It shouldn’t take too much longer for 97L to close off a circulation and intensify enough to become Tropical Storm Matthew. Satellite loops showed that showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and strength in the core of 97L. The system’s upper reaches are well ventilated, with excellent outflow supporting the continued growth of thunderstorms. The usual nighttime maximum in shower and thunderstorm activity could be enough to give 97L a name. In a special outlook issued at 4:20 pm EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 97L a 90% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The outlook for 97L
As we discussed this morning, 97L has a long road ahead of it, with many twists and turns possible over the next week or more. Models continue to support the idea that fast-moving 97L will sweep through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, possibly as a strong tropical storm. The strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4 - 8”, with locally higher amounts, can be expected over the islands just north of where the center of 97L is, including the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles--Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao--on Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and may escape receiving tropical storm winds. However, heavy rains of 2 - 4” can be expected, as predicted by the 12Z (2 am EDT) Tuesday run of the HWRF model (see Figure 2).


Figure 2. Cumulative rainfall projected by the 12Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model through Sunday afternoon, October 2. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NCEP.

As it moves into the southeast Caribbean--a challenging place for tropical cyclones, due to persistent sinking air--97L may struggle. Models are in fairly close agreement that 97L’s track will bend slightly toward the west or even southwest in the Caribbean, which could bring the center fairly close to the northern coast of Venezuela, leading to interaction with land that would hinder its growth. Toward the weekend, it appears that an upper-level low over the eastern U.S. will provide an opening for 97L to make a very sharp northward turn. As it enters the central Caribbean, 97L may have a better opportunity to intensify, and residents of the Greater Antilles--including Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic--will need to keep a close eye on it. While a sharp right-hand turn might seem implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being 1954’s Hurricane Hazel (see Figure 3 below).

The 12Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, and European models--our best three long-range track models--all support the idea of 97L moving north from the Caribbean into the Bahamas, as soon as Monday of next week (GFS) or as late as Wednesday (UKMET and Euro). Whether or not the U.S. East Coast is threatened by 97L will depend on how soon the expected northward turn occurs and on the evolution of this weekend’s upper-level trough. These factors are too far out to be predicted with any confidence. The same is true for 97L’s eventual peak intensity, although the waters of the Caribbean and northwest Atlantic are at record or near-record warmth, more than capable of supporting a powerful hurricane if the atmospheric preconditions fall into place.


Figure 3. A comparision of the track of 1954’s Hurricane Hazel (left) with the GEFS ensemble model tracks for 97L produced at 18Z Tuesday (left). These ensemble members are produced by running the same model for the same period, each time varying the starting-point conditions in order to simulate the uncertainty in our observations of the atmosphere. The idea is not that 97L will mimic Hazel but that the sharp right-turn depicted by the GEFS does have a precedent.

In the Central and Eastern Pacific: Ulika and Roslyn
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Ulika formed on Tuesday morning. Ulika is not expected to threaten any land areas, and is forecast to pass several hundred miles to the southeast of Hawaii early next week as a tropical depression. Further to the east, about 500 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Tropical Storm Roslyn is hanging on by a thread amid strong vertical wind shear that will push progressively drier air into its core. Rosyln should be a remnant low by Wednesday afternoon if not sooner.


Figure 4. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storms Uliki (left) and Rosyln (right) as of 2045Z (4:45 pm EDT) Tuesday, September 27, 2016. Image credit: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin/SSEC.

Megi makes its second landfall
The Northwest Pacific was quiet on Tuesday afternoon apart from deadly Typhoon Megi, which slammed into Taiwan on Tuesday local time, causing at least 4 deaths and hundreds of injuries (see our Tuesday morning post for more details). According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Megi swept onto the southeast coast of China just north of Quanzhou around 18Z Tuesday (2:00 am Wednesday local time). This landfall is about 50 miles northeast of where devastating Typhoon Meranti slammed ashore only a few days ago. Torrential rains, flooding, and landslides are once again possible as a rapidly weakening Megi moves inland and pushes moisture against the area’s rugged terrain.

We’ll be back by late Wednesday morning with our next update.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

12z models

Wow I can't believe the blog is missing this from the NHC. Blog is definitely not what it used to be.
Quoting 491. 19N81W:

wunderkid.....in all seriousness what are your thoughts



In all seriousness I do think system will move much further W I think it will be S and SW of Jamaica before it start making a turn and I think that turn will be a gradual turn rather than a sharp turn

I do not think Hispaniola is in the firing line I think Jamaica Cayman and Cuba

I was talking to a few people forecasters Hurr spec and others and they agree they are leaning further to the W

Whether Eastern GOM or W Florida is in play is very unsure we will have to wait and see
Quoting 502. StormTrackerScott:

Wow I can't believe the blog is missing this from the NHC. Blog is definitely not what it used to be.
Where ? How far south
Quoting 502. StormTrackerScott:

Wow I can't believe the blog is missing this from the NHC. Blog is definitely not what it used to be.


missing what?
Updated position is 13.2 and 59.8
Quoting 501. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z models




And there you go a definite shift W
Quoting 507. GeoffreyWPB:




Convection seems to be pushing southwards
Props to the Euro. Damm!

Bull market

Here is the tilt aspect of the broad circulation to the NE, from the surface to the mid-level, we have been discussing this morning (as of 8:00 am per CIMSS) as the result of the southwesterly-shear on the circulation. However, the NE tilt is a little less pronounced today than this time yesterday.

Mid:



Surface:

check the PHRASE UNAMED STORM if there were west winds it would have been named
Quoting 490. thetwilightzone:



thank you some on here this do not get it some time on how shear can work with storms
Looked to me, from the beginning, the models have been giving it an AC on its journey at some point.
Quoting 509. bupsin101:

Convection seems to be pushing southwards


Convection is pushing southward, but that doesn't mean the center is moving southward. Yesterday the convection was pushing northward and people were saying the system was moving north.


Pre-blob to the southeast of 97L

Quoting 506. kmanislander:

Updated position is 13.2 and 59.8


Looking at recon data and sfc obs its further S

Quoting 490. thetwilightzone:



thank you some on here this do not get it some time on how shear can work with storms
Looked to me, from the beginning, the models have been giving it an AC on its journey at some point.
Quoting 517. wunderkidcayman:



Looking at recon data and sfc obs its further S




Just saying what is official at this time.
recon showing one 20 knot wind barb at flight level north west of Barbados
Quoting 494. NatureIsle:



Quite agreed...
& Adding to the fact that as again witnessed with what is very well likely 'Pre- Matthew'- the "Lesser Antilles Rule" usually favours enhanced organisation & development of tropical system over or near the Lesser Antilles islands.
Hence, another reason why -Pre-classification Advisories & alerts should be issued for strong tropical disturbances with extremely high chances of development- for the general well- being & safety of unsuspecting citizenry.
God Bless!

so far my prediction is holding out, an invest over the Lesser Antilles, if I am 100% correct (I will not be) we will have a Cat 5 heading for NYC :P
AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB
I'm giving the Euro the edge on this one. Leaning toward CONUS impacts. We'll know soon enough.

Let's hope the shear keeps future Matthew on the ropes. There will be impact to many islands outside the CONUS. Here is hoping they are minimal.

Quoting 436. Sfloridacat5:

The Euro and the GFS are literally over 1000 miles apart at the same time frame.

The Euro is extremely slow with the system keeping it south of Florida in 240 hours while the GFS has the system in Canada.
I haven't seen such a large difference between the models in a long time.

97 will use a straw and suck up the pre-blob like a tequilla sunrise
Quoting 516. Grothar:

Pre-blob to the southeast of 97L


Sheared
Quoting 511. VAbeachhurricanes:

Bull market



All models that matter say Hurricane
Quoting 512. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the tilt aspect of the broad circulation to the NE, from the surface to the mid-level, we have been discussing this morning (as of 8:00 am per CIMSS) as the result of the southwesterly-shear on the circulation. However, the NE tilt is a little less pronounced today than this time yesterday.

Mid:



Surface:



It looks like it means business
Quoting 519. kmanislander:



Just saying what is official at this time.
The center further south ? Hmmm
529. beell
A wave.

Alex,Earl,Julia with 97L now at TS winds Matthew will be the 4th named storm on the list this season too skip TD and go right too a TS
Local authorities in Barbados are saying it has not passed us yet and we should expect conditions to deteriorate in a few hours..
532. ackee
Quoting 498. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! Recon is finding a broad center way south of where the models have it infact SW of Barbados. Huge implications for model runs later today. Wow that's a game changer and is inline where the Euro has it. Yikes!
Euro is a very good model
Quoting 529. beell:

A wave.




Like Dolly was with TS force winds
Quoting 529. beell:

A wave.


Yep no upgrade
Quoting 522. thetwilightzone:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

If that is the location of the COC per Recon, it is right near or over Barbados at the moment:


Image result
Quoting 502. StormTrackerScott:

Wow I can't believe the blog is missing this from the NHC. Blog is definitely not what it used to be.


Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South
America should also monitor the progress of this disturbance?
Quoting 529. beell:

A wave.




Yep, still gradually improving like was predicted, great low level inflow from the south and great outflow to the north, should just gradually continue to strengthen. Probably not classified until tomorrow.

538. beell
Quoting 533. kmanislander:



Like Dolly was with TS force winds


Got a good pressure gradient on the north end. Cheatin' its way to TS winds, lol!
Recon finding 45mph winds.
Quoting 538. beell:



Got a good pressure gradient on the north end. Cheatin' its way to TS winds, lol!


A teaser for sure :-)
Quoting 519. kmanislander:



Just saying what is official at this time.


Statement
a strong tropical wave is expected to move over the Eastern Caribbean this afternoon. Residents are urged to pay close attention to this wave due to its forecast path and potential for development.

They are worried

But it is a wait and see game

I'm talking to dir Gen John almost twice a day every day since late weekend

I'll let you know if anything new
any one reporting W winds on land? how about where 97L is with the Data buoy are even no the recon may not be finding any thing we could still be geting W wind report on land and with the data bouy so the NHC could still upgrade this
Quoting 539. Grothar:

Recon finding 45mph winds.
Still no west winds hmmm
Levi had a good video on this yesterday about the Euro bringing 97 close to the coast of SA and being not as strong. Track implications.
Quoting 531. Simonejl:

Local authorities in Barbados are saying it has not passed us yet and we should expect conditions to deteriorate in a few hours..


Looks like the bulk of the current convection is going to go right over Your Island today; safe passage for you and hoping for the best. Wind damage will not be an issue but you are going to experience flash flooding for most of the day from the looks of this thing.



I guess if the latest 12Z models are to be correct Haiti just got very lucky.... after spending some years living on Hispianola I can certainly make an educated guess that a land falling major cane would be catastrophic for them....

Still hoping this heads OTS and misses all of the east coast....

Stalling 200 miles SE of New England wouldn't be all that bad either, while we enjoy N winds and sunny skies and some major surf!
Holy

Time: 13:15:30Z
Coordinates: 14.700N 59.950W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 446 m (1,463 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (29.83 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 101° at 52 kts (From the E/ESE at 59.8 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Dew Pt: 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 54 kts (62.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 kts* (50.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (0.31 in/hr*)
Quoting 527. Icybubba:


It looks like it means business


A little better alligned but llc still ahead of the convection.
Quoting 545. weathermanwannabe:



Looks like the bulk of the current convection is going to go right over Your Island today; safe passage for you and hoping for the best. Wind damage will not be an issue but you are going to experience flash flooding for most of the day from the looks of this thing.




Still some shear impacting the system
550. SLU
St Vincent


Time (AST) Temp. Heat Index Dew Point Humidity Pressure Visibility Wind Dir Wind Speed Gust Speed Precip Events Conditions
6:00 AM 80.6 °F 85.4 °F 73.4 °F 79% 29.86 in 6.2 mi ENE 5.8 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
7:00 AM 80.6 °F 86.2 °F 75.2 °F 84% 29.86 in 6.2 mi ENE 5.8 mph - N/A Thunderstorm Thunderstorm
8:00 AM 80 °F - 77 °F 86% 29.88 in 9 mi North 5.8 mph - - Rain Light Rain Showers
8:00 AM 80.6 °F 87.1 °F 77.0 °F 89% 29.86 in 6.2 mi North 5.8 mph - N/A Overcast
9:00 AM 82.4 °F 88.2 °F 73.4 °F 74% 29.86 in 6.2 mi NNW 9.2 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
551. SLU
Grenada

9:00 AM 80.6 °F 88.1 °F 78.8 °F 94% 29.89 in 5.6 mi NNW 9.2 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
Quoting 546. NewEnglandSurfer:

I guess if the latest 12Z models are to be correct Haiti just got very lucky.... after spending some years living on Hispianola I can certainly make an educated guess that a land falling major cane would be catastrophic for them....

Still hoping this heads OTS and misses all of the east coast....

Stalling 200 miles SE of New England wouldn't be all that bad either, while we enjoy N winds and sunny skies and some major surf!


Hispanola is not out of the woods yet; if some of the current runs verify with the storm crossing Cuba, Hispanola will still be in the right Quad and and subject to flooding rains and other impacts.
Even though the current models may not be showing this, due to the delay in intensification up to now, the threat to Jamaica, Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas has increased. The conditions forecast for the central and western Caribbean could mean a possible rapid intensification is now very possible. A very strong system, even moving over Cuba, could be a very bad scenario for the entire east coast. If one were to take any of the long range models, a very strong system could go well into southern New England.
554. joHS
You mean you haven't seen my video?

um....you mean on u-boob?? :)

28/1145 UTC 13.6N 58.3W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic
Just catching up with all the latest and wow, most recent recon data showing 45kt surface winds! It looks great structurally, just no defined center yet. Could end up being 50-55kts by the time it has a defined center. Or maybe the first invest straight to hurricane status?

Looks like future Matthew is going to be big trouble for many people down the road...
Quoting 524. islander101010:

97 will use a straw and suck up the pre-blob like a tequilla sunrise


557. joHS
re: 553. Grothar
1:22 PM GMT on September 28, 2016

thx gro

AL, 97, 2016092806, , BEST, 0, 130N, 575W, 35, 1007,
AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB,
Quoting 555. Envoirment:

Just catching up with all the latest and wow, most recent recon data showing 45kt surface winds! It looks great structurally, just no defined center yet. Could end up being 50-55kts by the time it has a defined center. Or maybe the first invest straight to hurricane status?

Looks like future Matthew is going to be big trouble for many people down the road...
Not possible needs a define center for the engine to start to work properly lol
Quoting 505. VAbeachhurricanes:



missing what?
I know I'm missing more participation from StormtrackerScott! That man is a genius with El Nino and all things tropical.
Am hoping the recon dos other center pass
Updated CIMSS shear chart for 8:00 am; the anti-cyclone near Barbados is now more pronounced; that might explain the nice look the system has had this morning in terms of outflow bands and the improved stacking this am:




The low that has been in the BOC for days now is getting that TD look to it. Totally going unnoticed due to pre-Matthew. Storms in the BOC tend to spin up out of nowhere, and this one has only maintained a 10% designation because it has managed to organize in spite of conditions and the terrain next to it.

Eh, we'll find out in the post-season if it was anything, although it may have at least gotten closer than expected.
GEFS kek. It's not gonna turn over Haiti, and it's not gonna turn between Haiti and eastern Cuba. Stop kidding yourself.
Quoting 553. Grothar:

Even though the current models may not be showing this, due to the delay in intensification up to now, the threat to Jamaica, Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas has increased. The conditions forecast for the central and western Caribbean could mean a possible rapid intensification is now very possible. A very strong system, even moving over Cuba, could be a very bad scenario for the entire east coast. If one were to take any of the long range models, a very strong system could go well into southern New England.


Well the GROWRF has spoken - arguably our most reliable model. Seriously though, that's very bad news. Wouldn't be surprised if we saw the first category 5 hurricane in 9 years from Matthew.
565. joHS
13:20:30Z 14.900N 59.833W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 447 meters
(~ 1,467 feet) 1009.7 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 112° at 62 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 71.3 mph)
BAM suite looks pretty tight. MLC and LLC look pretty close to me. The Dolly comparison confuses me. What am I missing? tia
Quoting 563. KoritheMan:

GEFS kek. It's not gonna turn over Haiti, and it's not gonna turn between Haiti and eastern Cuba. Stop kidding yourself.


So, what is it going to do, then? Go up the Yucatan Channel and smash Louisiana/Texas?? Enlighten us, please.
RECON finding 54mph winds sfc
Quoting 563. KoritheMan:

GEFS kek. It's not gonna turn over Haiti, and it's not gonna turn between Haiti and eastern Cuba. Stop kidding yourself.

Amen. Probably over eastern Cuba. Although this seems like Ivan. North over dr then over Haiti now over Eastern Cuba
Quoting 568. wunderkidcayman:

RECON finding 54mph winds sfc
Damn I think the nhc needs to upgrade this
Quoting 564. Envoirment:



Well the GROWRF has spoken - arguably our most reliable model. Seriously though, that's very bad news. Wouldn't be surprised if we saw the first category 5 hurricane in 9 years from Matthew.
I gave you a +1. Not because of the cat 5 possibility, but I agree with Grothar being our most reliable model.
Recon now finding a large chunk of 50kt (60mph) surface winds with 97L. The islands should expect strong TS conditions it seem.
Quoting 570. bupsin101:

Damn I think the nhc needs to upgrade this

Agree, but Recon hasn't found a closed circulation yet (I think)
Quoting 570. bupsin101:

Damn I think the nhc needs to upgrade this


All on a technicality at this point at least a depression they have classified far lesser systems that floundered.
It will happen soon I have to imagine completely closed or not.
Quoting 537. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yep, still gradually improving like was predicted, great low level inflow from the south and great outflow to the north, should just gradually continue to strengthen. Probably not classified until tomorrow.




hmmm
if it wraps around one more time... with the west winds now being found and gusts of 50mph... plus closeness to land... i think this will be classified by 2pm
have crow ready lol
it's butt is being saved by the anticyclone over it but it's way south... we'll see if it travels N with the storm once it closes circulation and strengthens poleward
576. ackee
Quoting 570. bupsin101:

Damn I think the nhc needs to upgrade this agree even higher winds as well
Quoting 567. AnthonyJKenn:



So, what is it going to do, then? Go up the Yucatan Channel and smash NOLA or Lafayette?? Enlighten us, please.


The turn should begin around Jamaica or eastern Cuba, imo. And seeing as though I can sense the sarcasm in your post already, I'll happily give you a few reasons why that shouldn't verify.

First, there's an upper-level trough blatantly moving southward over the eastern US. As this trough detaches from the westerlies and becomes a cutoff low, it will lower heights over the western Atlantic. Tropical cyclones slow upon approaching a weakness in the high pressure belt. The only way I can physically see it turning that early is if it moves faster than currently predicted, which, while possible, is highly unlikely.

The second is intensification. The models have been too strong with this system so far; it STILL may not have a closed circulation. I was one of the few people here that wasn't buying into the early hurricane model garbage a few days ago. The models have shifted west BECAUSE this system has stayed weak. The ECMWF and UKMET solutions seem best.

Challenge me again. I'll eagerly wait for it. ;)
This is the first invest/wave I've seen producing 60mph surface winds. Of course it's partially due to a pressure gradient - but even the models didn't predict the winds would be as high as 50kts!
I have a question about the definition of a "closed circulation." If the center is moving at 20 mph, and there are winds of 0 mph to the south of the center and 40 mph from the east to the north of the center, I think from a mathematical perspective, the circulation is closed and winds are rotating around the center at 20 mph.

Why do meteorologists, in this scenario, require winds out of the west relative to the ground rather than relative to the center?

A car's tire doesn't have a closed circulation according to the meteorologist's definition (unless it is spinning out).

It seems like a better definition would be something like "20 mph or greater winds in every direction relative to the center's motion."
580. SLU
Wow. This is a big storm. The NHC should upgrade soon.

Quoting 446. zicoille:



97L is ridiculous. Nothing for us in the northern leewards islands. Always Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe for the rain, and just wind and sea for us in the North. If they are bored of rain down there, send it to the North ! What did we do to God and the Atlantic that we can.t get an heavy deluge.....Go Nature, do it, do ît !


Yes, same story every times. It's terribly upsetting to see a system that can't even move a little north just E of the islands in late september and grow more in size... Especially after the series of fishes the E Atlantic produced just before.
582. ackee
Quoting 570. bupsin101:

Damn I think the nhc needs to upgrade this agree even higher winds as well
Quoting 553. Grothar:

Even though the current models may not be showing this, due to the delay in intensification up to now, the threat to Jamaica, Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas has increased. The conditions forecast for the central and western Caribbean could mean a possible rapid intensification is now very possible. A very strong system, even moving over Cuba, could be a very bad scenario for the entire east coast. If one were to take any of the long range models, a very strong system could go well into southern New England.

I 100% agree Groth.
Don't remember ever seeing winds like this with an invest before

Time: 13:20:30Z
Coordinates: 14.900N 59.833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 447 m (1,467 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (29.82 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 112° at 62 kts (From the ESE at 71.3 mph)
Air Temp: 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Dew Pt: 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 64 kts (73.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (0.39 in/hr)
Quoting 580. SLU:

Wow. This is a big storm. The NHC should upgrade soon.



Been the case past few years. Strong winds but not closed
Quoting 469. Grothar:

The GFS has moved quite a bit west before making the turn.


And should continue to do so, so it lines up with the Euro.
The only thing that bothers me is that we always get these things figured out and fully analyzed, then the Doc comes along with a new post and nobody ever sees our great work.
What is a closed circulation btw sometimes I get confused ...
I hop the recon will do other center past we need too find that W wind
Quoting 449. allancalderini:

Lol I know a lot of people that want to experience a major. I want to experience a cat 2 to be honest.


I am not sure why you are disapppoint ,since the start models were showing this passing south of you. Every blogger in here try to explain you this was going to pass south of you. Not a single model had this moving near your island, you were living a dream and you need to face reality. Btw this will not be a bust for Dominica, Barbado, St Lucia and Guadalupe as this thing already have winds up to 50mph and looks to be strengthening, so not a bust,Maybe you will have luck next year.


Models showed Karl moving over us before they shifted 200 miles north. So I had hope that 97L would do something similar considering it is late september NOT late july :\\
Quoting 588. bupsin101:

What is a closed circulation btw sometimes I get confused ...


Winds converging in all directions. So basically this:

North side: east winds
East side: south winds
West side: north winds
South side: west winds
Quoting 575. serialteg:



hmmm
if it wraps around one more time... with the west winds now being found and gusts of 50mph... plus closeness to land... i think this will be classified by 2pm
have crow ready lol
it's butt is being saved by the anticyclone over it but it's way south... we'll see if it travels N with the storm once it closes circulation and strengthens poleward
It's almost there one more twist
595. ackee
55mph invest ? This is carzy If I were local met in those areas I would issue Strom warning for my area don't wait on the NHc to upgrade to do this
SFMR winds of 52 kt (60 mph) at the surface in this leg surface were the greatest with a SFMR quality control flag of zero. See:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/recon_AF303-0 2FFA-INVEST.dat

and:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/NHC_recon_gui de.pdf

to judge how to see if SFMR winds are bad or not.

This is still not a TS, though. I haven't seen winds much higher than this without a closed circulation being present.

Dr. M.

97L is taking advantage of the window of opportunity before hitting the shear band over the Lesser Antilles; TUTT free environment at the moment over Barbados and that light oval might be the beginning of better upper level outflow under the ULAC:



Quoting 577. KoritheMan:



The turn should begin around Jamaica or eastern Cuba, imo. And seeing as though I can sense the sarcasm in your post already, I'll happily give you a few reasons why that shouldn't verify.

First, there's an upper-level trough blatantly moving southward over the eastern US. As this trough detaches from the westerlies and becomes a cutoff low, it will lower heights over the western Atlantic. Tropical cyclones slow upon approaching a weakness in the high pressure belt. The only way I can physically see it turning that early is if it moves faster than currently predicted, which, while possible, is highly unlikely.

The second is intensification. The models have been too strong with this system so far; it STILL may not have a closed circulation. I was one of the few people here that wasn't buying into the early hurricane model garbage a few days ago. The models have shifted west BECAUSE this system has stayed weak. The ECMWF and UKMET solutions seem best.

Challenge me again. I'll eagerly wait for it. ;)

Didn't mean to seem sarcastic....just concerned out here about the implications of this system reaching as far west as my neck of the woods. So, no further west than Florida or Eastern Gulf, with a possible major rider up the Atlantic Seaboard, then? 
Quoting 508. wunderkidcayman:



And there you go a definite shift W
And it will continue to shift West.
Quoting 584. VAbeachhurricanes:

Don't remember ever seeing winds like this with an invest before

Time: 13:20:30Z
Coordinates: 14.900N 59.833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 447 m (1,467 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (29.82 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 112° at 62 kts (From the ESE at 71.3 mph)
Air Temp: 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Dew Pt: 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 64 kts (73.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (0.39 in/hr)

It's a very very very tight gradient. for as large as this system is, the trough is very tight and the axis is thin. I find it highly unlikely that it doesn't wrap around very soon. If it doesn't, it likely won't take very long for that trough axis to rotate around with nearly 60mph winds at the surface pushing against it.

Recon now finding a large chunk of 50kt (60mph) surface winds with 97L. The islands should expect strong TS conditions it seem.


Are those surface winds or flight level winds?

I see comment # 584 now.
Quoting 590. thetwilightzone:

I hop the recon will do other center past we need too find that W wind


I don't think you're going to find one right now. I don't yet think it exists.
Quoting 597. weathermanwannabe:

97L is taking advantage of the window of opportunity before hitting the shear band over the Lesser Antilles; TUTT free environment at the moment over Barbados and that light oval might be the beginning of better upper level outflow under the ULAC:






Remember the atmosphere is fluid. The invest is not the only thing moving at this point. That trough is going to weaken and start moving out of the area soon.
Quoting 602. Sfloridacat5:


Recon now finding a large chunk of 50kt (60mph) surface winds with 97L. The islands should expect strong TS conditions it seem.


Are those surface winds or flight level winds?

I see comment # 584 now.


55-60 at the surface, 70-73 or so at the flight level.
Amazing Dr. M; so Barbados and other parts of the Lesser Antilles are basically being impacted today by an unnamed tropical storm..........................
Quoting 598. AnthonyJKenn:


Didn't mean to seem sarcastic....just concerned out here about the implications of this system reaching as far west as my neck of the woods. So, no further west than Florida or Eastern Gulf, with a possible major rider up the Atlantic Seaboard, then? 


GFDL solution of a track through the channel isn't likely, but it's still possible. Theoretically, it could be accomplished if the system stays weak and sprawling until around 75W. Heights would then begin to build over the eastern US in the wake of the trough.
Quoting 606. SSL1441:



55-60 at the surface, 70-73 or so at the flight level.



In other words 97L is all most. Hurricane
Amazing how nice it looks from satellite but how messy it is at the surface.
Quoting 607. weathermanwannabe:

Amazing Dr. M; so Barbados and other parts of the Lesser Antilles are basically being impacted today by an unnamed tropical storm..........................


It's why you need to be wary of all tropical systems, not just if they are named or not. I'm sure Louisiana would say much the same right now.
Quoting 553. Grothar:

Even though the current models may not be showing this, due to the delay in intensification up to now, the threat to Jamaica, Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas has increased. The conditions forecast for the central and western Caribbean could mean a possible rapid intensification is now very possible. A very strong system, even moving over Cuba, could be a very bad scenario for the entire east coast. If one were to take any of the long range models, a very strong system could go well into southern New England.


I've already started preparing for this. We never take any of these "late season" storms coming from the south lightly.
The JOHN HOPE factor will be in play!
Quoting 601. Bucsboltsfan:



Put him on ignore.


I know some people here hated JFV because of his affinity for landfalling hurricanes, but I understand where he's coming from so I never did. Same with this guy. It's his constant whining more than anything. He's complaining about a 2 year drought, when it's already been 4 years here in Louisiana since we had a tropical cyclone of any sort. Not to mention there was 13 YEARS between Andrew and Katrina before we had another major hurricane; Danny and Lili were the only two hurricanes during that time, and they were obviously garbage. And Florida just emerged from an 11 year hurricane drought, themselves.

This kid has NO idea.
618. MahFL
Quoting 588. bupsin101:

What is a closed circulation btw sometimes I get confused ...


A circle of winds, as apposed to say a horseshoe shape. Right now 97L is horse shoe shaped wind wise at the surface.
Those winds though could be 40 or 50 mph, but just not in a recognized complete circle.
Quoting 459. DeepSeaRising:

Matthew is no bust for the islands, perhaps you remember what a "bust" of a storm it was for Dominica last year CaribBoy; when Erika rained out on the island. Give it a rest, people are going to die in all likelihood in the coming days somewhere from Matthew.


Erika the naked swirl? Yes it was a huge bust. The consequences of the rain were amplified by the drought the islands were facing last year. The island of Desirade east of Guadeloupe got 160mm in 12h from 99L this year, did you hear about death and destruction?
Quoting 609. thetwilightzone:




In other words 97L is all most. Hurricane


Eh no. For a few reasons. Obviously the no center aspect.
2. There's no really sharp pressure gradient here right now. It's something I've noticed that there isn't a sharp decline in pressure associated with the inner area of this system. It's just not there.

3. It would take time for those winds at flight level to spin down to the surface even once the system consolidates.

this thing still has a ways to go before reaching hurricane strength.

After all, 97L's rolling wave has got tighter and its momentum stronger.
Quoting 509. bupsin101:

Convection seems to be pushing southwards


As usual
Quoting 516. Grothar:

Pre-blob to the southeast of 97L




Fish
Quoting 614. ElConando:


Considering how old his account is, I'm going to assume he was less than 10 when it was made, I may be a bit conservative.


I said something far more explicit about him to my friend on Facebook this morning. I can't say it here, but I'll be happy to PM if you want. :P
Quoting 620. SSL1441:



Eh no. For a few reasons. Obviously the no center aspect.
2. There's no really sharp pressure gradient here right now. It's something I've noticed that there isn't a sharp decline in pressure associated with the inner area of this system. It's just not there.

3. It would take time for those winds at flight level to spin down to the surface even once the system consolidates.

this thing still has a ways to go before reaching hurricane strength.


Large spins take a long time to develop.....but once they do, they also take a while to unwind.
Quoting 619. CaribBoy:



Erika the naked swirl? Yes it was a huge bust. The consequences of the rain were amplified by the drought the islands were facing last year. The island of Desirade east of Guadeloupe got 160mm in 12h from 99L this year, did you hear about death and destruction?


That particular huge bust killed 34 people on our island, in part because the PM was off-island and the local weather service didn't issue a flood warning, then two feet of rain came down in less than a day on the northeast side of the island, if I remember NatureIsle's reports correctly.

Here, let me say this again, a little more slowly, because clearly it hasn't sunk in yet.

34. People. Died.

Hundreds. of. Millions. in. Damages.

= Not. a. Bust.



By your standard, Katrina was a bust too because it didn't hit your particular island with Cat 5 winds.
Quoting 613. SSL1441:



It's why you need to be wary of all tropical systems, not just if they are named or not. I'm sure Louisiana would say much the same right now.


You're absolutely right! Named or not, it needs to be taken seriously!
I think we can see what the proximity to S.A. is doing to this invest. Strong winds to N/NW of alleged center. Minimal winds to the S/sw of alleged center. S.A. is still doing a number on this large invest. In order to progress, it must gain some latitude and/or tighten up.
Quoting 608. KoritheMan:



GFDL solution of a track through the channel isn't likely, but it's still possible. Theoretically, it could be accomplished if the system stays weak and sprawling until around 75W. Heights would then begin to build over the eastern US in the wake of the trough.

Kori, you think other models that take it due north and eventually east away from the US are underestimating strength of ridge euro and gfs show?
Quoting 571. Llamaluvr:

I gave you a +1. Not because of the cat 5 possibility, but I agree with Grothar being our most reliable model.


Also our best looking model. After 13.7 billion years he still looks like he belongs on the cover of GQ. ;)
Quoting 626. Xandtar:



That particular huge bust killed 34 people on our island, in part because the PM was off-island and the local weather service didn't issue a flood warning, then two feet of rain came down in less than a day on the northeast side of the island, if I remember NatureIsle's reports correctly.

Here, let me say this again, a little more slowly, because clearly it hasn't sunk in yet.

34. People. Died.

Hundreds. of. Millions. in. Damages.

= Not. a. Bust.



By your standard, Katrina was a bust too because it didn't hit your particular island with Cat 5 winds.


He would have more of an argument if he was talking specifically about retirement, imo. But yeah, I agree with you. As usual, he's been very shortsighted.
Quoting 589. KoritheMan:



I think you might be WORSE than JFV at this point. -_-


Disappointment.
WOW Dr. Postel just said that the flight level 70 mph winds render down to 60 mph at the surface! Could go from Invest to hurricane if this keeps up!
Invest 97L must break loose from the ITCZ and then see what spin it has. Its about to break loose now if not already done so. These things look much more impressive when still attached to the ITCZ. When they break loose is when you see the real thing if anything!
Quoting 629. wunderweatherman123:


Kori, you think other models that take it due north and eventually east away from the US are underestimating strength of ridge euro and gfs show?


Those models aren't good until we get an actual TC. I always ignore them.
Quoting 566. muddertracker:

BAM suite looks pretty tight. MLC and LLC look pretty close to me. The Dolly comparison confuses me. What am I missing? tia
Dolly was an intense invest with TS force winds (almost up to Cat 1) through the entire Caribbean until it was passing just to the sw of Grand Cayman. We experienced those strong winds and torrential rains yet no closed low therefore no name ;)


Still no west winds - not closed. Impressive winds though - will be interesting to see if it will close off today.
Quoting 634. TampaSpin:

Invest 97L must break loose from the ITCZ and then see what spin it has. Its about to break loose now if not already done so. These things look much more impressive when still attached to the ITCZ. When they break loose is when you see the real thing if anything!


97L is not even close to the ITCZ
It's pretty much guaranteed 97L will never be a Tropical Depression. That has been the pattern lately with most the storms we've had.
They go from a wave to Tropical Storm status.
Quoting 637. stormwatcherCI:

Dolly was an intense invest with TS force winds (almost up to Cat 1) through the entire Caribbean until it was passing just to the sw of Grand Cayman. We experienced those strong winds and torrential rains yet no closed low therefore no name ;)
!

Ahhh, yes. I see. Thank you :)
Quoting 639. VAbeachhurricanes:



97L is not even close to the ITCZ


I strongly disagree with you.....sorry!

(Click to enlarge). Beautiful airmass display of the unusual storm hitting southern Australia right now (and knocking out power in a whole state, see comments #314 and 317 this morning). Source and loop!
Quoting 626. Xandtar:



That particular huge bust killed 34 people on our island, in part because the PM was off-island and the local weather service didn't issue a flood warning, then two feet of rain came down in less than a day on the northeast side of the island, if I remember NatureIsle's reports correctly.

Here, let me say this again, a little more slowly, because clearly it hasn't sunk in yet.

34. People. Died.

Hundreds. of. Millions. in. Damages.

= Not. a. Bust.



By your standard, Katrina was a bust too because it didn't hit your particular island with Cat 5 winds.


Erika was barely a TS. Compare things that are comparable.
Quoting 589. KoritheMan:



I think you might be WORSE than JFV at this point. -_-


That's harsh, man. Whew. Was your sarcasm flag on there? Because I haven't seen anyone near that bad since, well, Voldemort.
Very dangerous storm in the makings, possibly one for the record books. The OTS scenario is steadily decreasing and the chance of someone in the USA from Florida to Maine is heavily increasing. All eyes on 97L!
648. IKE
97L....the best invest I've ever seen.
Quoting 647. reedzone:

Very dangerous storm in the makings, possibly one for the record books. The OTS scenario is steadily decreasing and the chance of someone in the USA from Florida to Maine is heavily increasing. All eyes on 97L!


QFT (quoted for truth)
Quoting 647. reedzone:

Very dangerous storm in the makings, possibly one for the record books. The OTS scenario is steadily decreasing and the chance of someone in the USA from Florida to Maine is heavily increasing. All eyes on 97L!
Before then US the Caribbean will be heavily impacted don't forget
Quoting 647. reedzone:

Very dangerous storm in the makings, possibly one for the record books. The OTS scenario is steadily decreasing and the chance of someone in the USA from Florida to Maine is heavily increasing. All eyes on 97L!

redzone you are right man. The models are slowly sliding back to the west
Quoting 644. CaribBoy:



Erika was barely a TS. Compare things that are comparable.


Okay.

Drought over your island = 0 deaths

Storms that keep missing you, inexplicably despite models saying that's what will happen = many deaths in places not on your island.

And with this, I'm done replying to your posts, you're defending the indefensible and I won't be a party to it anymore.

(bows)
Quoting 608. KoritheMan:



GFDL solution of a track through the channel isn't likely, but it's still possible. Theoretically, it could be accomplished if the system stays weak and sprawling until around 75W. Heights would then begin to build over the eastern US in the wake of the trough.
With winds of 60mph already I believe that 97L is already stronger than you thought, and it might still gather strength before crossing the windward islands, so it might make the turn before reaching Jamaica and hit Hispañola instead like the Gfs was predicting. If it maintains intensity or weakens it might move closer to Jamaica and the caymans.
With these westward shifts in the GFS due to the storm intensifying more slowly than originally projected- the threat to the Western Caribbean and Florida as well as Mid Atlantic of the US has significantly increased. Still the turn is 4 to 6 days out so shifts in track of up to 500 miles can still occur. But runs are beginning to lock on to this type of scenario.
Quoting 637. stormwatcherCI:

Dolly was an intense invest with TS force winds (almost up to Cat 1) through the entire Caribbean until it was passing just to the sw of Grand Cayman. We experienced those strong winds and torrential rains yet no closed low therefore no name ;)


Pre-Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Earl was another example of a very strong wave. Earl looked almost like a hurricane by the time the NHC upgraded it from a wave to a T.S.
It just seems to becoming more of the norm these days.
Anyway, have a good day.
Quoting 638. hurricanehanna:



Still no west winds - not closed. Impressive winds though - will be interesting to see if it will close off today.
I think it will close off soon
i believe in john hopes generation 97 would already of been declared a td.
Quoting 648. IKE:

97L....the best invest I've ever seen.


Impressive indeed, shows the history of what this storm may in fact do. the fact that it already has 60 mph. winds is mind blowing. When the EURO for two consecutive runs show a Category 5 moving towards the USA, that's when we all should be paying attention.
How does this not have a CLOSED CIRCULATION?!
Quoting 647. reedzone:

Very dangerous storm in the makings, possibly one for the record books. The OTS scenario is steadily decreasing and the chance of someone in the USA from Florida to Maine is heavily increasing. All eyes on 97L!
yes and with a week or more still to go this has plenty of time yet to grow into a monster storm that the Met's are worried about.
good morning everyone,

I swear this has Ivan, Gilbert or even Mitch written all over it. i personally think the front is going to miss it as it continues west..my thinking is that it will go into the GOM, which i hope i am wrong but someone is going to get something unfortunatly. just don't see it taken that exit stage north...just too many flashbacks of Ivan, it's going to turn....ok it's going to turn now...after it blew up to a monster then went polar and the rest is history...jmo been a long time lurker and always enjoy everyones input. the regs on here..patrap, gro, ike, levi and so so many more..i respect because just by the blog alone you get more information than any other mainstream weather sites muchless the dang weather channel. ever since John Hope passed, it's not been the same. keep up the great work everyone!!
Quoting 615. ExumaMET:



I've already started preparing for this. We never take any of these "late season" storms coming from the south lightly.


These words apply to the Mid Atlantic region of the U.S. also.
Quoting 661. 62901IL:

How does this not have a CLOSED CIRCULATION?!


Dry air, possible trades. It looks good because of the ventilation
Quoting 663. Nolehead:

good morning everyone,

I swear this has Ivan, Gilbert or even Mitch written all over it. i personally think the front is going to miss it as it continues west..my thinking is that it will go into the GOM, which i hope i am wrong but someone is going to get something unfortunatly. just don't see it taken that exit stage north...just too many flashbacks of Ivan, it's going to turn....ok it's going to turn now...after it blew up to a monster then went polar and the rest is history...jmo been a long time lurker and always enjoy everyones input. the regs on here..patrap, gro, ike, levi and so so many more..i respect because just by the blog alone you get more information than any other mainstream weather sites muchless the dang weather channel. ever since John Hope passed, it's not been the same. keep up the great work everyone!!


Hazel is our likely analog.

Quoting 664. georgevandenberghe:



These words apply to the Mid Atlantic region of the U.S. also.


Indeed.

I'm a tad more on edge than I normally would be; SC has been targeted three times this season, which is unheard of. However, my thoughts are with our friends in the Caribbean, as they will be the first to deal with this.
Quoting 663. Nolehead:

good morning everyone,

I swear this has Ivan, Gilbert or even Mitch written all over it. i personally think the front is going to miss it as it continues west..my thinking is that it will go into the GOM, which i hope i am wrong but someone is going to get something unfortunatly. just don't see it taken that exit stage north...just too many flashbacks of Ivan, it's going to turn....ok it's going to turn now...after it blew up to a monster then went polar and the rest is history...jmo been a long time lurker and always enjoy everyones input. the regs on here..patrap, gro, ike, levi and so so many more..i respect because just by the blog alone you get more information than any other mainstream weather sites muchless the dang weather channel. ever since John Hope passed, it's not been the same. keep up the great work everyone!!


Hey what about Allen?
Quoting 661. 62901IL:

How does this not have a CLOSED CIRCULATION?!



When the perturbation is embedded in strong large scale flow it has to be stronger to develop a closed circulation.
Wind speeds will approximately be large scale plus perturbation speeds. These add in the right front quadrant
and subtract in the left front quadrant BTW. And it's why even strong short waves in the westerlies at, say, 500mb often don't have closed circulations.. because the westerlies (large scale flow) are too strong.

The dynamics, to first order are determined by perturbation intensity.
Quoting 666. georgevandenberghe:



Hazel is our likely analog.




That is the most concerning thing for me here in SE North Carolina. Granted, Hazel was exactly 20 years before I was born, it is still the bar to which most destructive Hurricanes are compared to here by the old timers. Fran and Bertha back in '96 were small potatoes compared to Hazel.
A lot more pronounced of a wind shift that pass from the HH, its getting closer.
Quoting 667. nash36:



Indeed.

I'm a tad more on edge than I normally would be; SC has been targeted three times this season, which is unheard of. However, my thoughts are with our friends in the Caribbean, as they will be the first to deal with this.


Round 1, tonight/tomorrow. Flooding rains.

Round 2, next midweek. Cat 1 hurricane for the DC metro. 06Z GFS track is not favorable for max winds here but of course it could shift 100km west (the reality is it could shift 1000+km eight days out but I'll be pessimistic and ignore that)

Quoting 658. bupsin101:

I think it will close off soon

I think it's closed at 14N, 59.5W.
Quoting 654. allancalderini:

With winds of 60mph already I believe that 97L is already stronger than you thought, and it might still gather strength before crossing the windward islands, so it might make the turn before reaching Jamaica and hit Hispañola instead like the Gfs was predicting. If it maintains intensity or weakens it might move closer to Jamaica and the caymans.


Winds alone don't mean it's going to move more poleward. Pressure and distribution of convection have a lot more to do with it. Some of these winds are almost certainly gradient induced. The models were showing a well-developed TC by now. We don't have that.
I can't help get the feeling that 97L is like a car revving its engine in neutral. Once the circulation closes, it's going to slam into gear and leave skid marks through the Eastern Caribbean.
i'm sure there a ton of storm that i forgot to mention, was just remembering those. just don't see the Hazel track. i'm sure i am wrong. i'm no meteorologist, just a surfer...but been a weather geek forever...always learning something new each year, so no disrespect to anyone's opinion's on here.
Quoting 671. VAbeachhurricanes:

A lot more pronounced of a wind shift that pass from the HH, its getting closer.


They got some good NW winds. It is wrapping up.
any thoughts on timing?
(open to other cayman posters) just trying to get a local consensus....I think we have been misled by models enough
Quoting 503. wunderkidcayman:



In all seriousness I do think system will move much further W I think it will be S and SW of Jamaica before it start making a turn and I think that turn will be a gradual turn rather than a sharp turn

I do not think Hispaniola is in the firing line I think Jamaica Cayman and Cuba

I was talking to a few people forecasters Hurr spec and others and they agree they are leaning further to the W

Whether Eastern GOM or W Florida is in play is very unsure we will have to wait and see
Quoting 671. VAbeachhurricanes:

A lot more pronounced of a wind shift that pass from the HH, its getting closer.


Agreed. I'm thinking they needed to be a little further E. Just to the NW of Barbados. 13.6N and 60ish W
OTS scenario looking less likely folks.
Quoting 669. georgevandenberghe:



When the perturbation is embedded in strong large scale flow it has to be stronger to develop a closed circulation.
Wind speeds will approximately be large scale plus perturbation speeds. These add in the right front quadrant
and subtract in the left front quadrant BTW. And it's why even strong short waves in the westerlies at, say, 500mb often don't have closed circulations.. because the westerlies (large scale flow) are too strong.

The dynamics, to first order are determined by perturbation intensity.


In other words because recon didnt find a closed low the end
Morning all.

That latest (00z) euro run... yeesh!

Slows to a crawl in sw Bahamas as a small ridge builds over the se conus. That could be ugly. Not sure it can be iterated enough, but this is a very tricky forecast. The euro goes out 240 hrs and a LOT can change in 240 hrs. The timing of the GFS seems far too fast, imo and I'm focused primarily on the former.

ATM, 97L appears fairly close to being classified. Still broad and a bit decoupled, but so long as it keeps firing convection, shouldn't take too long. Doubtful this behaves the same as other waves of recent years, in this region. Once it gets going, I doubt it'll struggle, but I also wouldn't anticipate it exploding. This could very well happen as it slows south of Hispaniola as the western periphery of the ridge breaks down. Afterward, should begin a more northerly track, strengthening. And after that, bwahahaha. Call Miss Cleo

Again, tricky, tricky forecast.

Euro, 850 mb vorticity, wind

72 hrs



120 hrs



168 hrs



At 72 hrs, the GFS begins to really diverge in track and speed compared to euro. Both tracks eventually take 97L to essentially the same point, se Cuba, but the Euro is roughly 2 days later at arrival. Quite the contrast and the reason for such a difference in track thereafter.



Healthy looking lil fella.
Quoting 660. reedzone:



Impressive indeed, shows the history of what this storm may in fact do. the fact that it already has 60 mph. winds is mind blowing. When the EURO for two consecutive runs show a Category 5 moving towards the USA, that's when we all should be paying attention.


Does this thing can skip TD/TS designation? Can the NHC go straight to hurricane status if this strengthens a bit more?
I have lurked over your posts, and truly stay glued to this blog every hurricane season. I somewhat depend on your group of bloggers to keep me informed, thus more than Cantore and his crowd and NOAA.As in insurance agent for coastal homes in Eastern NC, I have preached the preparedness over and over each year, till I am considered a joke among so many friends. I suffered 5 ft flooding in my home from Isabell and Irene. I processed many claims from Fran, Bertha, Floyd,Ophelia,Isabell and Irene. So regardless of the nature of this beast, please continue with your best guesses, best knowledge, best forecasts. I always lean to the ones that I have seen over the years such as Gro and Patrap. Come back at me when you know I need to get on my soapbox and start preaching preparedness in Morehead City ( Eastern NC as we look to be in bullseye sometimes)...whether my associates like it or not. Maybe it will save a life or personal items for someone.
Quoting 671. VAbeachhurricanes:

A lot more pronounced of a wind shift that pass from the HH, its getting closer.



Yupp, big difference towards first pass. Now pronounced North winds on the West side.

See how the winds get when going south a bit.
This could become a very dangerous storm downstream regardless of whether it tracks into the Caribbean or Gulf, or pulls to the North to record warm SSTs from North of Cuba and around Florida all the way up to Maine.............................










Quoting 633. Camerooski:

WOW Dr. Postel just said that the flight level 70 mph winds render down to 60 mph at the surface! Could go from Invest to hurricane if this keeps up!


60 MPH is the number posted on the WU home page for 97L. With the GFS now farther West and other models already there I am starting to become uneasy with the evolution of this system. A great deal hinges on how the trough/high relationship unfolds over the GOM but clearly the GFS, which has been stubbornly farther East than other models for several days, is starting to adjust its output, no doubt in relation to how it is reconciling this very issue out in time.
688. joHS
14:25:30Z 13.033N 60.950W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 449 meters
(~ 1,473 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 295° at 12 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 13.8 mph)
Quoting 660. reedzone:



Impressive indeed, shows the history of what this storm may in fact do. the fact that it already has 60 mph. winds is mind blowing. When the EURO for two consecutive runs show a Category 5 moving towards the USA, that's when we all should be paying attention.


Large, potent but disorganized is the worst of both worlds at this point. Keeps it weak in a hurricane sense to delay the turn but provides ample material to be dangerous.
I have a feeling the the HWRF is going to be "off the charts"

Recond reporting some west winds ...not right at the surface though

14:29:30Z 13.017N 60.683W 959.1 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 462 meters
(~ 1,516 feet) 1011.1 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 261 at 8 knots
(From the W at ~ 9.2 mph)
Today I feel like the village idiot! with that said here is why, on Friday Oct 8th, my family an I are going to Anna Marie Island for vacation for two weeks, I told my wife , we better have a Plan B, just in case H.Matthew comes into the gulf and ruins our vacation, she says don't worry about it, you always worry about thing like this you can't do anything about it! Called my son he and his family are going to St.George island Fl. next Thursday the 1st. He says I'm not concerned about this storm, don't worry about it! Called my best friend who is going to Myrtle Beach SC. next Friday the 2nd, he say I'm not concerned I've ridden out hurricane Berta, and the power didn't even go out! again don't worry about it, all I said to him is to have a plan B. in advance! No body is listening to me and I find this frustrating, Oh for those who don't know me I'm the Director of an Emergency Management in a medium size county in the Mid-west were we get lots of floods tornado's and snow storms but not hurricanes, since it's not my subject matter, they think I'm over reacting, this is driving me crazy no one listens! I know were a week away, all I'm saying is to have a plan ready. Complacency has run amuck even within my family just think what will happen when Matthews strikes the Continental United States in the next 10 to 12 days, where do think we'll be, In my honest opinion, up shick creek!
Quoting 678. 19N81W:

any thoughts on timing?
(open to other cayman posters) just trying to get a local consensus....I think we have been misled by models enough



Late weekend I'd think

Models are shifting more and more to the West I think that over the next 24-48 hrs it will continue to shift W I wouldn't be surprised if by then none of the models has it East of Jamaica it would be over Jamaica or West of Jamaica now I'm not sure how far west but I'd think Central America will be out of the picture maybe the farthest W would be Eastern Yucatan channel

Btw this reminds me so much of Ivan

The forecast had it moving over Hispaniola then shifted W then it was Jamaica/Cuba then it shifted W then it was Jamaica/Cayman

Just saying we could see similar with the shifts W with this system
Recon finding a more convincing wind shift now:



Could be the start of a defined center forming.
now the mets on TV (fox13 tampa) are saying a different story about that cold front. For a couple of days they stated the front and dry air would be here all through out he weekend. now there saying the front may not make it as far south as they they thought and as soon as it gets here it pulls away. does that mean it may miss picking up the storm and sending it east of here..... if the storm remains week and keeps going west?
I feel much hate against me. I know my complaints can irritate and I'm sorry for that, but I see some on here aren't as nice as they think they are. This is sad.
Quoting 687. kmanislander:



60 MPH is the number posted on the WU home page for 97L. With the GFS now farther West and other models already there I am starting to become uneasy with the evolution of this system. A great deal hinges on how the trough/high relationship unfolds over the GOM but clearly the GFS, which has been stubbornly farther East than other models for several days, is starting to adjust its output, no doubt in relation to how it is reconciling this very issue out in time.
Thank you ! I have been waiting to read your thoughts. I am feeling a bit uneasy too.
Quoting 694. Envoirment:

Recon finding a more convincing wind shift now:



Could be the start of a defined center forming.
Where ?
Say hello!

Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.
Oh hey there, Matthew:

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781140608 945647616
Quoting 699. VAbeachhurricanes:

Say hello!

Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.


yay!!
Quoting 682. GatorWX:


The GFS has doesn't have high pressure moving over the E coast until much, much later in the forecast. I do wish there were a couple more frames of the ECMWF though. Going to take time to figure this one out. Maybe in a couple days we'll start getting a consensus.

Quoting 693. wunderkidcayman:



Late weekend I'd think

Models are shifting more and more to the West I think that over the next 24-48 hrs it will continue to shift W I wouldn't be surprised if by then none of the models has it East of Jamaica it would be over Jamaica or West of Jamaica now I'm not sure how far west but I'd think Central America will be out of the picture maybe the farthest W would be Eastern Yucatan channel

Btw this reminds me so much of Ivan

The forecast had it moving over Hispaniola then shifted W then it was Jamaica/Cuba then it shifted W then it was Jamaica/Cayman

Just saying we could see similar with the shifts W with this system
I agree. Models had Ivan turning north iirc before reaching Jamaica or as it was coming up to Jamaica and look what happened with that.
704. joHS
14:27:30Z 13.017N 60.817W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 451 meters
(~ 1,480 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 264° at 9 knots
(From the W at ~ 10.4 mph)
Quoting 692. trunkmonkey:

Today I feel like the village idiot! with that said here is why, on Friday Oct 8th, my family an I are going to Anna Marie Island for vacation for two weeks, I told my wife , we better have a Plan B, just in case H.Matthew comes into the gulf and ruins our vacation, she says don't worry about it, you always worry about thing like this you can't do anything about it! Called my son he and his family are going to St.George island Fl. next Thursday the 1st. He says I'm not concerned about this storm, don't worry about it! Called my best friend who is going to Myrtle Beach SC. next Friday the 2nd, he say I'm not concerned I've ridden out hurricane Berta, and the power didn't even go out! again don't worry about it, all I said to him is to have a plan B. in advance! No body is listening to me and I find this frustrating, Oh for those who don't know me I'm the Director of an Emergency Management in a medium size county in the Mid-west were we get lots of floods tornado's and snow storms but not hurricanes, since it's not my subject matter, they think I'm over reacting, this is driving me crazy no one listens! I know were a week away, all I'm saying is to have a plan ready. Complacency has run amuck even within my family just think what will happen when Matthews strikes the Continental United States in the next 10 to 12 days, where do think we'll be, In my honest opinion, up shick creek!
You may want to have Plan B in effect anyhow. The beaches here are basically ruined until something comes along and flushes away the pollution. They have dumped close to 200 million gallons of sewage in the water this year around the Tampa Bay area and the red tide is off the charts. Dead fish and birds everywhere. The water is the color if onion soup and the smell is rancid. I have friends coming Oct 14 and I plan on going to the east coast to get to a beach that hasnt been ruined by pollution and red tide unless "something" comes along and flushes away the dirty water. Its ashamed what the beaches are like now in this area thanks to sewage dumping of cities who refuse to fix there sewers.

Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.
It's cone-time
Quoting 699. VAbeachhurricanes:

Say hello!

Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.


Thanks VA! You're always ahead of me lol Recon's latest passing showing a more defined center/wind shift must of done it. I wonder if they'll have it at 45 or 50kts!

Personally I can't wait for the NHC's professional opinion on the evolution of Matthew.
Finally
La Desirade station recorded a 40 mph sustained winds at 10 AM and the strongest gust at 60 mph earlier.
711. MahFL
Quoting 707. win1gamegiantsplease:

It's cone-time


Yay the cone of death !
Quoting 692. trunkmonkey:

Today I feel like the village idiot! with that said here is why ...

Lol! Very entertaining narrative, well done. Thank you. And best wishes for the near future with (or better without) Matthew!
Quoting 708. Envoirment:



Thanks VA! You're always ahead of me lol Recon's latest passing showing a more defined center/wind shift must of done it. I wonder if they'll have it at 45 or 50kts!

Personally I can't wait for the NHC's professional opinion on the evolution of Matthew.


Yep will be interesting, I assume with the 60mph surface winds, any type of circulation was going to be classified, Matthew is in no way going to get weaker from now on so its safe to pull the trigger as it will continue to organize.
Hello Matthew
Quoting 696. CaribBoy:

I feel much hate against me. I know my complaints can irritate and I'm sorry for that, but I see some on here aren't as nice as they think they are. This is sad.


I'd much prefer your complaints than those that consistently wishcast despite all logic. It's all good CB, we know you want to see a decent storm.
Quoting 652. Xandtar:



Okay.

Drought over your island = 0 deaths

Storms that keep missing you, inexplicably despite models saying that's what will happen = many deaths in places not on your island.

And with this, I'm done replying to your posts, you're defending the indefensible and I won't be a party to it anymore.

(bows)

I PUT HIM ON MY IGNORE LIST SEVERAL SEASONS AGO.
TS Matthew has formed. 13th Storm this season. 13-4-1
I guess we cannot really believe the models until a true Center Low has formed and its still a week or more away from the states.
Quoting 698. bupsin101:

Where ?



The west winds down around 13 degrees north latitude on this chart.
lots of love carib boy hope you get some of mathew wkc might get alittle more though
This may be Charlie's BIG brother.
723. Ed22
Quoting 661. 62901IL:

How does this not have a CLOSED CIRCULATION?!

Pretty interesting with 97L jumping from 35 to 40 and now 60 mph winds, furthermore the Low Level Center is closing off pretty fast; movement towards the west at 20 to 25 mph isn't accurate. Hurricane conditions shouldn't be out the question now for lesser Antillies this afternoon, its current location is around 60.0 west and 13.8 north at the moment.
Well alright then!
I am sure there was a lot of chatter this morning between NHC, the Pilots, and Flight Mets to keep circling back to try to close it off so they could initiate advisories for this dangerous storm for the Lesser Antilles at present.
Anyone want to take a guess as to how far and wide the cone will be?
Now this is why they are paid the big bucks. What will be the projected path set by the NHC.

Quoting 681. Hester122:



In other words because recon didnt find a closed low the end


Not quite.. this is why a strong perturbation with good dynamics, has not yet closed off. Not closing off is false comfort for those who think this is weak and not to worry about.
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.....................2 T's
Quoting 617. KoritheMan:



I know some people here hated JFV because of his affinity for landfalling hurricanes, but I understand where he's coming from so I never did. Same with this guy. It's his constant whining more than anything. He's complaining about a 2 year drought, when it's already been 4 years here in Louisiana since we had a tropical cyclone of any sort. Not to mention there was 13 YEARS between Andrew and Katrina before we had another major hurricane; Danny and Lili were the only two hurricanes during that time, and they were obviously garbage. And Florida just emerged from an 11 year hurricane drought, themselves.

This kid has NO idea.


I happened to survive both. Danny was a pipsqueak. Lili, on the other hand? We got 80mph gusts gusts here in Opelousas, with the center passing just to our west over Eunice on route to Alexandria. And, we dodged a nuke, too, because Lili was up to 145mph/C4 just 220 miles off the coast before weakening down to 110 at landfall. That was scary.
Quoting 726. hurricanewatcher61:

Anyone want to take a guess as to how far and wide the cone will be?


west coast of fl in it for sure
Or how far East or west?
Tropical storm warnings in affect immediately for islands
13.1 - 60.8???
Quoting 731. Hester122:



west coast of fl in it for sure
oh oh
Quoting 692. trunkmonkey:

Today I feel like the village idiot! with that said here is why, on Friday Oct 8th, my family an I are going to Anna Marie Island for vacation for two weeks, I told my wife , we better have a Plan B, just in case H.Matthew comes into the gulf and ruins our vacation, she says don't worry about it, you always worry about thing like this you can't do anything about it! Called my son he and his family are going to St.George island Fl. next Thursday the 1st. He says I'm not concerned about this storm, don't worry about it! Called my best friend who is going to Myrtle Beach SC. next Friday the 2nd, he say I'm not concerned I've ridden out hurricane Berta, and the power didn't even go out! again don't worry about it, all I said to him is to have a plan B. in advance! No body is listening to me and I find this frustrating, Oh for those who don't know me I'm the Director of an Emergency Management in a medium size county in the Mid-west were we get lots of floods tornado's and snow storms but not hurricanes, since it's not my subject matter, they think I'm over reacting, this is driving me crazy no one listens! I know were a week away, all I'm saying is to have a plan ready. Complacency has run amuck even within my family just think what will happen when Matthews strikes the Continental United States in the next 10 to 12 days, where do think we'll be, In my honest opinion, up shick creek!

I would just make the plan B or even a few of them, literally put them in a hat to pull out if you can't go. If say you go and it is still lurking just have on paper a plan of action (private as not to over excite anyone) to use if need be. Such as I live in Eastern New England, a long way out but still up for grabs. I don't go around gabbing to everyone about it yet, just my private little action plan so if it were to make the Yankee run I can break it out as everyone raises a brow and avoid what I call the Sandy incident....
Quoting 705. intampa:

You may want to have Plan B in effect anyhow. The beaches here are basically ruined until something comes along and flushes away the pollution. They have dumped close to 200 million gallons of sewage in the water this year around the Tampa Bay area and the red tide is off the charts. Dead fish and birds everywhere. The water is the color if onion soup and the smell is rancid. I have friends coming Oct 14 and I plan on going to the east coast to get to a beach that hasnt been ruined by pollution and red tide unless "something" comes along and flushes away the dirty water. Its ashamed what the beaches are like now in this area thanks to sewage dumping of cities who refuse to fix there sewers.


Wow, he should drive down Bonita Beach in Southwest Florida. I went to Barefoot Beach in Bonita on Sunday and the water was great and I had a fun day at the beach. I'm dealing with some sunburn but that's about the only negative.
The Euro Ensemble Mean is quite troubling.

thanks guys
Quoting 703. stormwatcherCI:

I agree. Models had Ivan turning north iirc before reaching Jamaica or as it was coming up to Jamaica and look what happened with that.
740. Ed22
Quoting 717. WeatherkidJoe2323:

TS Matthew has formed. 13th Storm this season. 13-4-1
Is it official from the NHC my weather enthusiasts?
Quoting 726. hurricanewatcher61:

Anyone want to take a guess as to how far and wide the cone will be?


Galveston to Nova Scotia?
Quoting 702. StormJunkie:



The GFS has doesn't have high pressure moving over the E coast until much, much later in the forecast. I do wish there were a couple more frames of the ECMWF though. Going to take time to figure this one out. Maybe in a couple days we'll start getting a consensus.




Certainly not at all conclusive now... I'm surprised, the split after just 72 hrs. The euro hangs out in the southern carib, while GFS b lines for Cuba.
I think this goes without saying, but from this point moving forward, those in charge better have given the blog an anti-diarrheal......
Quoting 733. RitaEvac:

Tropical storm warnings in affect immediately for islands


Nothing like waiting until the storm is right on top on you to issue warnings.
Quoting 741. Brock31:



Galveston to Nova Scotia?


Well, it won't go out that far yet.
Quoting 741. Brock31:



Galveston to Nova Scotia?


its not going to texas throw that idea out the winder
Quoting 740. Ed22:

Is it official from the NHC my weather enthusiasts?


Yes
Quoting 696. CaribBoy:

I feel much hate against me. I know my complaints can irritate and I'm sorry for that, but I see some on here aren't as nice as they think they are. This is sad.

honestly i know you mean well and i know the drought you`ve been going through... but i always knew this was going to happen very soon tho.... it started out funny about 2 weeks ago (im not sure if you were complaining longer than that) the it became the norm to see a carib boy comment about how all the good stuff missed u about a week ago.. but now we see 4 and 5 comments on every single blog just you saying "fish fish fish" and expressing more intense dissatisfaction... i know your very well aware of what your doing! but none the less i have no issue with you or your bickering... just letting u know the progression of your rant... idk what next week will bring...
Quoting 741. Brock31:



Galveston to Nova Scotia?


Veracruz to Bermuda. I didn't think your cone was wide enough.
Quoting 693. wunderkidcayman:



Late weekend I'd think

Models are shifting more and more to the West I think that over the next 24-48 hrs it will continue to shift W I wouldn't be surprised if by then none of the models has it East of Jamaica it would be over Jamaica or West of Jamaica now I'm not sure how far west but I'd think Central America will be out of the picture maybe the farthest W would be Eastern Yucatan channel

Btw this reminds me so much of Ivan

The forecast had it moving over Hispaniola then shifted W then it was Jamaica/Cuba then it shifted W then it was Jamaica/Cayman

Just saying we could see similar with the shifts W with this system


Ivan was continuously blocked from going North as forecasted due to the ridge over the Western Atlantic building farther and farther to the West over Florida. You may recall that the final forecast before Ivan came our way was for it to pass right over Jamaica headed to the NW. When it was as little as maybe 60 miles due South of Jamaica it stalled, again due to the Western edge of the ridge building to the West once more over Florida. Once that happened there was only one direction it could go and that was WNW.

After that, Ivan started to make the NW turn just beyond the Western tip of Jamaica, got blocked again and made the move WNW into the NW Caribbean with the eye passing just 25 miles South of Grand Cayman.

This time around the synoptic pattern is different, at least so far, but we will have to wait and see whether the remnants of the GOM trough can hold off the high from building West over Florida. The real problem is that there is no way to forecast the very short term steering changes that happened with Ivan, sometimes in a matter of a few hours.

This is what it looks like now.

Quoting 740. Ed22:

Is it official from the NHC my weather enthusiasts?


Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC: NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.
Quoting 687. kmanislander:



60 MPH is the number posted on the WU home page for 97L. With the GFS now farther West and other models already there I am starting to become uneasy with the evolution of this system. A great deal hinges on how the trough/high relationship unfolds over the GOM but clearly the GFS, which has been stubbornly farther East than other models for several days, is starting to adjust its output, no doubt in relation to how it is reconciling this very issue out in time.


You should be uneasy
I do think the models will continue to shift w as well
The discussion is going to be interesting in terms of the timing of the turn......Probably some uncertainly later in the period.
ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRENCH ISLANDS OF
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS, DOMINICA, AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA, BARBADOS, ST. VINCENT, AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN BONAIRE...CURACAO...ARUBA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRENCH ISLANDS OF
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS, DOMINICA, AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA, BARBADOS, ST. VINCENT, AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN BONAIRE...CURACAO...ARUBA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN
Everyone should be keeping an eye on this storm, track seems troubling to certain interests.
We have Matthew.
This is going to be a big storm. Hope everyone in Harms way are prepared.
VA beat me again, I concede! lol
Quoting 744. Sfloridacat5:



Nothing like waiting until the storm is right on top on you to issue warnings.


There's going to need to be some kind of new protocol, where once an invest has certain winds of at least 40mph or more, tropical storm warnings need to be in affect regardless of a closed circulation.
evrybody keep refreshing the nhc page fast hurry hurry
Latest shots to go along with the naming ceremony: Matthew is a big boy that will have far reaching impacts well beyond the center line of the NHC cone once it comes out.




AF304 currently in gulf, non-tasked mission. sampling? I hope.
Quoting 759. Envoirment:

VA beat me again, I concede! lol


Hahaha!
Quoting 752. wunderkidcayman:



You should be uneasy
I do think the models will continue to shift w as well
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. Pretty good chance we get something from this.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and
move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the notheast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin
the next few hours and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
NHC takes it right over Jamaica
Quoting 726. hurricanewatcher61:

Anyone want to take a guess as to how far and wide the cone will be?


Lol.

No.
Gosh darn it, I give up forever!
772. A4Guy
773. Ed22
Quoting 751. Aeropsia:



Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC: NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.
Now we have Matthew; Jamaica should be on high Alert with the imminent treat from Tropical Storm Matthew now.
Haven't seen a cone like that in awhile... Fun, fun ;)
Wow, 60mph winds with 1008 pressure on the first advisory, a rare sight!
NHC following the EURO more then the GFS for right now...
Quoting 771. Envoirment:




It would appear the NHC is siding with the Euro for now.
#Matthew will have a lot of warm water ahead of it regardless of its path. If wind shear relaxes, rapid intensification is likely.
Awaiting discussion...
Recon seem to have passed around the center it's estimated to be near 13.4N 60.4W give or take

From a wave to a 60 mph Tropical Storm. That's a big jump.
The discussion on this will be very interesting, particularly if the NHC tackles the trough/high issue this early in the game. The 5 day cone suggests that the remnant trough will hold the high at bay. Time will tell.
Good Morning

Looks like AF97-5304 is now out sampling the Gulf and surrounding areas, well scratch that... I guess not. :)
786. joHS
can't remember....how long will the aircraft numbers and info take to get into model runs...is it not until tomorrow for more sure tracks?

jo
Quoting 785. WxLogic:

Good Morning

Looks like AF97-5304 is now out sampling the Gulf and surrounding areas.


There lies the key to the future track beyond 5 days.
NHC is usually the most conservative in intensity forecasts and they even have 105 mph Strong CAT 2 hitting Jamaica. Troubling forecast ahead from SFL to New England.
Back later
Quoting 784. kmanislander:

The discussion on this will be very interesting, particularly if the NHC tackles the trough/high issue this early in the game. The 5 day cone suggests that the remnant trough will hold the high at bay. Time will tell.


They said in the discussion that they are unsure so they split the difference between the GFS and Euro for now



I gotta say though I do think we will see the con shift W
Wouldn't of expected a cat 2 in nhc's forecast.. surprising.
Seems like they have split the difference between the two models pretty evenly.

Euro - Monday at 8pm EST



GFS Monday 8pm EST



NHC Forecast

Great to have the NHC's guidance on this... Looks like a lot of trouble.
Quoting 778. SavannahStorm:



It would appear the NHC is siding with the Euro for now.


Probably a good call initially, as GFS has been inching westward with each model run, or so it appears.
Can Matthew please thread the needle in the Windward Passage, take a sharp right south of the Bahamas and turn into a CAT 6 so we can watch it safely in the Atlantic.
Quoting 784. kmanislander:

The discussion on this will be very interesting, particularly if the NHC tackles the trough/high issue this early in the game. The 5 day cone suggests that the remnant trough will hold the high at bay. Time will tell.
A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be.
I picked a good time to stop lurking. This is going to be a very dangerous storm for a lot of people...
Quoting 786. joHS:

can't remember....how long will the aircraft numbers and info take to get into model runs...is it not until tomorrow for more sure tracks?

jo


Most likely a couple days. They need upper air missions to get the data for the models...but they can't get that data until the patterns are pretty close to being in place.
Quoting 737. Sfloridacat5:



Wow, he should drive down Bonita Beach in Southwest Florida. I went to Barefoot Beach in Bonita on Sunday and the water was great and I had a fun day at the beach. I'm dealing with some sunburn but that's about the only negative.


Was up and down the beaches from Nokomis to Longboat yesterday and today looking for and photographing the effects of the red tide in Sarasota Co. There was a fish kill, but the water is actually fairly clear along the shore and there is no signs of airborne neurotoxin using my nose. I've sampled every red tide event in Sarasota and Manatee Co since 1992 and can definitely notice it in the air. Not getting that at all with this one right now..... yet anyway.
300 mile spread I believe usually....

Quoting 769. GatorWX:



Lol.

No.
801. joHS
re: 789. kmanislander
3:06 PM GMT on September 28, 2016 There lies the key to the future track beyond 5 days.

thinking of you

jo

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Quoting 799. StormHype:



Was up and down the beaches from Nokomis to Longboat yesterday and today looking for and photographing the effects of the red tide in Sarasota Co. There was a fish kill, but the water is actually fairly clear along the shore and there is no signs of airborne neurotoxin using my nose. I've sampled every red tide event in Sarasota and Manatee Co since 1992 and can definitely notice it in the air. Not getting that at all with this one right now..... yet anyway.


I saw a video from Englewood beach that looked really bad. Lots of dead fish and the water looked bad.
Well this is the worst news we've seen tropically in a long time for our basin. Matthew really needs to not RI.

Gonna be a close one for me in SFL
Quoting 796. stormwatcherCI:

A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be.


Hi, just saw that. The real question though is where will the western portion of the ridge be at that time and will it hold or retreat to the East. No way to know the answer until probably the weekend when the models should come into agreement one way or another.
CB settle down
Now that we have a large and strong Tropical Storm, I wonder if that will start to favor an earlier turn to the north?
Everyone was saying because the system wasn't forming it was going to go further west. But now that is not the case anymore.

We could have a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean before too long.
801. joHS
3:11 PM GMT on September 28, 2016

Thanks. Interesting times ahead.
Quoting 802. Sfloridacat5:



I saw a video from Englewood beach that looked really bad. Lots of dead fish and the water looked bad.


It is. :(
Quoting 790. wunderkidcayman:



They said in the discussion that they are unsure so they split the difference between the GFS and Euro for now



I gotta say though I do think we will see the con shift W




west of due north
Quoting 757. Wunderwood:

We have Matthew.
wunder storm
It's still moving at a good clip. its a larger storm and may not strengthen as quickly. perhaps more shear in the 24 hours to keep it in check in the short-term as well

Quoting 807. Sfloridacat5:

Now that we have a large and strong Tropical Storm, I wonder if that will start to favor an earlier turn to the north?
Everyone was saying because the system wasn't forming it was going to go further west. But now that is not the case anymore.

We could have a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean before too long.
Quoting 778. SavannahStorm:



It would appear the NHC is siding with the Euro for now.


Most of the model guidance is for a later, less sharp turn than what the GFS has liked.
Quoting 702. StormJunkie:



The GFS has doesn't have high pressure moving over the E coast until much, much later in the forecast. I do wish there were a couple more frames of the ECMWF though. Going to take time to figure this one out. Maybe in a couple days we'll start getting a consensus.


Bastardi from WB has been posting the euro ensembles on Twitter if you wanna see a few more frames, not many solutions impact NC to New England.
Quoting 804. Camerooski:


Gonna be a close one for me in SFL

Yup, Matthew's gonna be a good one to follow.
Quoting 810. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





west of due north


Yikes, intensifying major with a perpendicular strike on the Carolinas.
Quoting 798. StormJunkie:



Most likely a couple days. They need upper air missions to get the data for the models...but they can't get that data until the patterns are pretty close to being in place.


Any data taken this morning will be put into the 18Z run.
Quoting 807. Sfloridacat5:

Now that we have a large and strong Tropical Storm, I wonder if that will start to favor an earlier turn to the north?
Everyone was saying because the system wasn't forming it was going to go further west. But now that is not the case anymore.

We could have a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean before too long.


That turn should not begin until at least 75W. The ridge will remain over Matthew, regardless of how strong he gets, until he reaches the periphery of that ridge.

The models have pretty much shown that turn around 75W.
what happened to the computer models?
820. joHS
re: 798. StormJunkie
3:09 PM GMT on September 28, 2016

thx sj

up on navy 14L.FOURTEEN

821. MahFL
Quoting 744. Sfloridacat5:



Nothing like waiting until the storm is right on top on you to issue warnings.


Sometimes that happens, the storm could have remained an invest until west of the islands, who knows....
The NHC forecast point is in the exact same location as the EURO. The GFS is a little (at least 100 miles) to the east of this location. The Euro goes right over Jamaica and so does the official NHC forecast.
Quoting 807. Sfloridacat5:

Now that we have a large and strong Tropical Storm, I wonder if that will start to favor an earlier turn to the north?
Everyone was saying because the system wasn't forming it was going to go further west. But now that is not the case anymore.

We could have a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean before too long.
If anything it will go further west, becuase it is moving faster. The ridge is way to strong for it to move poleward and the RI shouldn't occur until Friday so don't expect a hurricane by tonight. :)
Area from Tampa to Miami going to be holding their collective breaths as this track solidifies over the next three days. Not to mention we don't need a Sandy on steroids event either. Hard to imagine a repeat of a 1/1000 year storm like Sandy. Certainly a possibility. 1/1000 year events are becoming regular events these days.
This blog is going to go crazy The US major drought will likely end with this storm
12z Int

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 797. JonClaw:

I picked a good time to stop lurking. This is going to be a very dangerous storm for a lot of people...


Could see a 2/3 in Jamaica/Cuba...
829. MahFL
The center is west of Barbados already ?
Just as I predicted. :):)

Quoting 816. ProPoly:



Yikes, intensifying major with a perpendicular strike on the Carolinas.

Signed.
Quoting 822. Sfloridacat5:

The NWS forecast point is in the exact same location as the EURO. The GFS is a little to the east of this location.


It's the timing that's dramatically different.

GFS @ 126 hrs



Euro @ 168 hrs



42 hr discrepency.

12z GFS is now running.
Quoting 832. GatorWX:



It's the timing that's dramatically different.

GFS @ 126 hrs



Euro @ 168 hrs



42 hr discrepency.

12z GFS is now running.


Timing is ridiculously different in the long term. At 240 hours the two models are at least 1000 miles apart.

Matthew and look by Africa. Something else getting started?
Quoting 830. Grothar:

Just as I predicted. :):)




Wow, models not showing that sharp turn (90 degree) anymore more to the NNW rather than due north. I'm still in shock right now.
Quoting 835. Ricki13th:



Wow, models not showing that sharp turn (90 degree) anymore more to the NNW rather than due north. I'm still in shock right now.

EPS might win out... Trough weaker than anticipated, ridge stronger. Those in the eastern gulf watch out.
Quoting 831. cRRKampen:


Signed.

Yikes! I AGREE! I run the Transfer Station, here, on Hatteras Island. We just finished roadside cleanup on the island for the little TS three weeks ago. I can only imagine the damage/cleanup from Matthew if he comes to visit here!
Quoting 782. Sfloridacat5:

From a wave to a 60 mph Tropical Storm. That's a big jump.


Indeed, this particular precedent speaks volumes, and is of course testament to the fact of the pre-existing tropical storm conditions which have been affecting some of the islands from the very early hours of this morning. Nonetheless, its good to see that the NHC did not decide to put off naming the system any longer when it was probably quite easily at Tropical storm strength for some time before being designated (its lack of a name really due only to an elusive closed center of circulation).

Matthew has already and is still making its impact & presence felt here in Dominica, and of course in the neighbouring islands. I hope and pray that the effects from Matthew will result in no loss of life at present, and along its future path. Those likely to be in the future path of this system- Please beware and heed accordingly.

God Bless!
Quoting 830. Grothar:

Just as I predicted. :):)




Lol just how I predicted
The latter period cone is so wide that it takes into account the model divergence and allows for the track-tweaks over the next several days based on recon (both of the storm and the synoptic environment out ahead). Just noting anywhere from the Eastern Gulf to Florida and up the Eastern Seaboard are still in play at this point in the longer-term based where and when the storm hits hurricane strength and the timing of the trof issues.

However, the more pressing issue for the Antilles now is how strong of a hurricane will be impacting Jamaica, Cuba, and/or Hispanola in the shorter-term with core force hurricane winds and heavy rain away from the center as well as the current tropical storm conditions affecting the Lesser Antilles.

Hey Everybody! This is my first post, and I have been a lurker for quite a few years now, amazing information from you folks! Wondering where everyone's heads are at in respect of a possible ride up the west coast of FL? Looks like it is possible, but perhaps we could gather some percentage chances? I am going with 15%.
842. IKE
I see we officially have Matthew. Twelfth named storm of the season.
Quoting 841. SunnyintheEye:

Hey Everybody! This is my first post, and I have been a lurker for quite a few years now, amazing information from you folks! Wondering where everyone's heads are at in respect of a possible ride up the west coast of FL? Looks like it is possible, but perhaps we could gather some percentage chances? I am going with 15%.


I posted the Sept 20 12z GFS model yesterday that showed just that scenario. even though the Euro is the most westward model it's kind of interesting that that GFS model run on the 20th showed a SWFL hurricane event. Right now i would put odds at 20-15%
The intensification of Tropical storm Matthew has been horribly impressive...the ferocity and perpetuation of its impacts from early this morning into tonight has been quite alarming and a disconcerting reality for many islanders.

Matthew has already and is still making its impact & presence felt here in Dominica, and of course in the neighbouring islands as well. The one two punch is being delivered by Matthew with gusty winds and incessant rains coupled by a high storm surge in most coastal areas...not a good combination going into the night time. I hope and pray that the effects from Matthew will result in no loss of life at present, and along its future path.
Those likely to be in the future path of this system- Please beware and heed accordingly. This is not a system to be trifled with at any cost -quite damaging. Thank God the power had been restored which made a short post possible...kudos as always to those literally risking their lives in such conditions in order to ensure the services of others. Preparedness is always key!

God Bless!