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97L Growing More Organized as it Approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands

By: Jeff Masters 3:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2016

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands late Monday morning (Invest 97L) was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 97L was growing considerably more organized, with more curvature to the cloud pattern, an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, low-level spiral bands that were getting more defined, and upper-level outflow that was becoming better established to 97L’s north. The storm’s organization was being aided by low wind shear of 5 knots, a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 70%) and warm ocean waters of 30°C (86°F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself properly aligned in the vertical, plus 97L’s nearness to the equator. The system was centered near 9.5°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin of its own.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, reaching a latitude of about 12°N by Tuesday afternoon. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 65 - 70%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 10 - 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds is quite possible.

Invest 97L may pass very close to the coast of South America on Thursday and Friday, which would interfere with development. In addition, the southeastern Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is often due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones. In addition, tropical cyclones passing near the coast of South America often suck in dry continental air from the land areas to the south. The last hurricane to pass through the southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane Tomas of 2010, degraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical depression due to high wind shear and dry air as it moved across the region. Recent runs of the SHIPS model have been predicting that 97L will increase its forward speed to 25 mph on Thursday in response to the acceleration of the trade winds over the southeastern Caribbean, and this will likely interfere with development. The model is also indicating that 97L will draw in dry air from northern South America, further slowing intensification. Once 97L manages to separate itself from the coast of South America early next week, more significant intensification can occur.

Model support for development of 97L continues to remain high. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Monday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Tuesday and Thursday. About 80% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Monday GFS ensemble showed development into a tropical storm, with 50% predicting a hurricane. The European model ensemble was less aggressive developing the storm, probably because of a predicted track too close to the coast of South America—about 60% of its 50 ensemble members predicted a tropical storm in the Caribbean, with 30% predicting a hurricane. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 90%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into the storm on Tuesday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storm names is Matthew.





Figure 2. Forecasts from the 00Z Monday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future. The European model showed a more westerly track for 97L, with a long-range threat to the Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS model predicted more of a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Long-range forecast for 97L
The steering currents for 97L will be complex over the coming ten days, and it is very difficult at this point to narrow down where the storm will be 5 - 10 days into the future. A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L more to the northwest by the weekend, according to a majority of the Monday morning runs of the models. In this scenario, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, or eastern Cuba would be at risk from a direct strike by 97L on Sunday or Monday. Early next week, this upper level low is expected to lift out to the northeast as a strong trough of low pressure passes its north and captures it. This trough may be strong enough to pull 97L to the northeast with it, if the storm is far enough to the north. Otherwise, 97L will likely continue on a west-northwesterly path. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), 97L could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can’t narrow things down much at this point. If 97L ends up consolidating its center at a latitude significantly different from what these models are expecting, or on a day different from what is expected, the forecast tracks may change dramatically. Making an accurate long-range track forecast from a tropical wave in the process of transitioning into a tropical depression is notoriously difficult.

Roslyn forms off the Pacific coast of Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Roslyn, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed on Monday morning. An average season in the Eastern Pacific has just fifteen named storms during the entire year. Roslyn is expected to head north into an area of high wind shear and dry air, and will dissipate late this week without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi taken at 10:40 am EDT September 26, 2016 (22:40 local time.) Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Typhoon Megi takes aim at Taiwan
Category 2 Typhoon Megi was holding at 105 mph sustained winds late Monday morning as it headed west-northwest at 10 mph towards Taiwan. Satellite images and radar images indicated that Megi was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle late Monday morning, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall, and this process will likely keep Megi from intensifying before the storm makes landfall in Taiwan near midnight Monday (U.S. EDT.) Megi is the fourth significant typhoon to affect Taiwan this year. Super Typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan on July 7 as a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 150 mph. Earlier in September, Super Typhoon Meranti passed just to Taiwan's southwest, killing two and leaving nearly a million without power, and Typhoon Malakas passed just to Taiwan's northeast a few days later. Taiwan averages 3 to 4 typhoon strikes per year, according to the Central Weather Bureau. On its predicted course, Megi would make a second landfall as a tropical storm along the coast of southeast China, not far south of where Meranti claimed at least 29 lives and caused at least $2.6 billion in damage. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in Taiwan and will be making live updates on Megi’s landfall on his Twitter feed.

Bob Henson will be back this afternoon with an update on major flooding occurring on the Cedar River and Mississippi River in Iowa.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the update doc... stay awesome, we appreciate all your efforts to get info out there :D
Thank you for the update.
Thanks Doc...I hope it does not make it to the N.W. Caribbean.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Definitely a busy week ahead.
Thanx for the update. Will continue to watch it.
Quoting 2. SavannahStorm:

Thanks Doc!

Things are juicy out over the Gulf Stream.




Been watching that area . Always keep my eyes off SE coast this time of year
This is an odd update; not up to the Doc's normal quality. He spends so much time talking about all the reasons the Matthew will fall apart in the Eastern Caribbean, with no mention of the fact that nearly all the models are incredibly bullish, with GFS and HWRF indicating near-Cat. 5 intensity.

And then he says that Megi probably won't intensify much further than its current 105 mph before it hits Taiwan, when the latest CIMSS ADT numbers show that it has already intensified dramatically (140 mph) and is organizing rapidly. Odd....
Ok so the islands are in play and after that just about anywhere in carb or gomx. Is that correct?
As if 97L wasn't fast enough :\
I want big N shift. It's late september, no place for strong ridge!
"Long range forecast for 97L
The steering currents for 97L will be complex over the coming ten days, and it is very difficult at this point to narrow down where the storm will be 5 - 10 days into the future....
"

So let's all stay calm for a few more days, yes?

Navegem and Euro have shifted back west infact the Euro Ensembles are mostly in the Gulf. Could see the GFS shift back westward today or tomorrow. Main reason why the GFS is becoming an Eastern Outliner is how it handles the upper trough over the Mid Atlantic later this week. The Euro is weaker and further west with this upper feature.

Euro is not God by any means but I find it interested that the Euro Ensembles have all shifted west from yesterday's run while the GFS has done the opposite. At some point I think the GFS will give in to the Euro.

Euro Ensembles



At 1200 UTC, 26 September 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 9.3°N and 46°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 19 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.







From last blog

Quoting 890. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 model still showing Tropical Storm for the Windward Islands early Thursday morning.

It's been really consistently brushing South America with a strengthening hurricane...

... and then devastating Jamaica.

New this morning and only because it only goes out 240hrs is this move toward the NW Caribbean after Jamaica.



I do think this is a possibility

Quoting 910. ackee:

Crown weather

The GFS model guidance forecasts a quick turn to the north and northeast across Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas late this weekend into early next week followed by a turn to the northeast and east-northeast away from the United States. This quick turn to the north/northeast forecast by the GFS model seems suspect. The reason why is because the ridge of high pressure from the western Atlantic into the southeastern United States has been quite strong this summer and I don’t think we will see it disappear that quickly.

The GFS ensemble guidance agrees with the GFS operational model in forecasting Invest 97-L to eventually track northward out of the Caribbean across Hispaniola around Sunday and then across the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday of next week. From there, the GFS ensemble guidance diverges with quite a few members forecasting a track along the US East Coast towards New England and the Canadian Maritimes by late next week and a few GFS ensemble members forecasting a track into the area between south Florida and the Carolinas late next week.

The European operational model guidance is much further west than its forecast from yesterday afternoon. It forecasts a pull to the north between Jamaica and Haiti around next Monday and an ultimate turn back to the west-northwest near the northern coast of eastern Cuba around next Wednesday.

The European ensemble guidance have also shifted significantly to the west as compared to yesterday afternoon. A majority of the ensemble members forecasts a path into the western Caribbean by the early to middle part of next week. From there, these ensemble members forecast a west-northwest or northwest track into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.


Yes I would agree with this

Complex situation

Funny enough kinda reminds me of Ivan forecast was to move toward over Hispaniola then it shifted W then was expected to move over Jamaica and it shifted W then it was expected to mover over sister islands then Cuba then shifted W then it was expected to move between Grand Cayman and the sister islands then it shifted W

I think this is a real possibility with this system too

Quoting 936. GeoffreyWPB:

I think the room will be full tomorrow following the first recon mission into 97L...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 26 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX O1FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 11.5N 54.5W D. 11.5N 57.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.


Oh I think it will be more than a full room
I do think 97l has a little more than 9.3n if you look at the live shortwave floater it looks like the rotation is between 10n and 11n seems to be jogging up but anyways I could be wrong so let's see what happens next up date 2pm
Thanks Doc. Really keeping a look out here in Barbados. This system keeps reminding me of Tomas, down to the models' handling of the system.
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Navegem and Euro have shifted back west infact the Euro Ensembles are mostly in the Gulf. Could see the GFS shift back westward today or tomorrow.

Euro Ensembles



That's what I'm thinking
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Navegem and Euro have shifted back west infact the Euro Ensembles are mostly in the Gulf. Could see the GFS shift back westward today or tomorrow.

Euro Ensembles



Ahhh! Finally set in stone. About time the models got on board :-P
Quoting 9. Autistic2:

Ok so the islands are in play and after that just about anywhere in carb or gomx. Is that correct?



From Dr. Masters' above entry...

97L could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can’t narrow things down much at this point. If 97L ends up consolidating its center at a latitude significantly different from what these models are expecting, or on a day different from what is expected, the forecast tracks may change dramatically. Making an accurate long-range track forecast from a tropical wave in the process of transitioning into a tropical depression is notoriously difficult.
24 Hours

Quoting 8. FlyingScotsman:

This is an odd update; not up to the Doc's normal quality. He spends so much time talking about all the reasons the Matthew will fall apart in the Eastern Caribbean, with no mention of the fact that nearly all the models are incredibly bullish, with GFS and HWRF indicating near-Cat. 5 intensity.

And then he says that Megi probably won't intensify much further than its current 105 mph before it hits Taiwan, when the latest CIMSS ADT numbers show that it has already intensified dramatically (140 mph) and is organizing rapidly. Odd....

Doc has some bias playing into his stuff lately, like playing in to the all time low in arctic ice, yet we can see that 2009 or 2013 was lower than 2016 in graphs and stuff.
Quoting 11. CaribBoy:

I want big N shift. It's late september, no place for strong ridge!


You want a big shift to the north well well... to effect us up here in St.maarten and where ever in the northern leeward islands you are located becareful what you wish for.. We do need some rain am here sitting in my car and car registering 99 degree f it's pretty hot.. We don't need a major right now
Quoting 8. FlyingScotsman:

This is an odd update; not up to the Doc's normal quality. He spends so much time talking about all the reasons the Matthew will fall apart in the Eastern Caribbean, with no mention of the fact that nearly all the models are incredibly bullish, with GFS and HWRF indicating near-Cat. 5 intensity.

And then he says that Megi probably won't intensify much further than its current 105 mph before it hits Taiwan, when the latest CIMSS ADT numbers show that it has already intensified dramatically (140 mph) and is organizing rapidly. Odd....


Maybe he's not buying into 97L intensifying as quickly as models indicate because of reasons discussed? A weaker system heads further west as shown by Euro Ensembles.


Click image for loop

Quoting 19. K8eCane:



Ahhh! Finally set in stone. About time the models got on board :-P


At this point, I don't think anything is set in stone. The models have shifted on a regular basis and I don't think we will be able to discern the future of 97L for a few more days.
48 hours

My guess is 12z GFS shifts a tad bit west.
Watching Invests huh....hold the fort down folks. I'll check in when a named storm is out there.
Quoting 26. Patrap:



Click image for loop





Interesting
Quoting 27. Wunderwood:



At this point, I don't think anything is set in stone. The models have shifted on a regular basis and I don't think we will be able to discern the future of 97L for a few more days.


Agreed...should have added a sarcasm flag to my post
12z has the trough a tad bit weaker... previous runs over northern florida. now over Georgia, expect a shift slightly left
Both the GFS and Euro have a run taking 97L right over my house. So I've got that going for me.
60 hours, 45knt TS in the windwards

From 12:33 UTC,earlier

IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])




🌎🌊✌
Quoting 11. CaribBoy:

I want big N shift. It's late september, no place for strong ridge!


No thank you, Dominica has had plenty of rain but its infrastructure from Erika last year is still very fragile. Let it stay south where South America can help keep it in check.
Will be near the windwards in less than 72h...
Quoting 35. VAbeachhurricanes:

60 hours, 45knt TS in the windwards




Typical ....
96 Hours

12z GFS throws on the brakes after 4 days, 957mb

Quoting 44. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS throws on the brakes after 4 days, 957mb


The full resolution that you use is the most accurate when it comes to strength at landfall for a particular location?
The Turn.
Quoting 44. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS throws on the brakes after 4 days, 957mb




If it is this far away from SA north coast that kind of intensification is what I will expect. Only question is will it shift west or stick to its guns rest of the run
Quoting 46. Gearsts:

The Turn.



Good place to expect it to be around 5 days after that it's still up in the air but somewhere in Central or West Caribbean.
Good afternoon!

*looks with shock at her name* Look what happened when I got my "crashed computer" back....now I might be able to change the password and get back to business....

89, feeling like 104, with rain showers moving in as I write this. It has been unbelievably hot these last few weeks. Any rain that will fall today will just increase the humidity. My other half has been starting work at 5:30 a.m. and leaving shortly after noon. Just can't deal with it in the afternoon hours.

Other than that, waters in the area, both north (Megan's Bay) and south (Water Island) are like baths. No chills walking in for a swim.

Have a good one...and hoping all is well with you folks!

Lindy
Quoting 30. RitaEvac:

Watching Invests huh....hold the fort down folks. I'll check in when a named storm is out there.
See you tomorrow morning! ;)
Interesting that we have a "training mission" heading out to that area for the NOAA3 guys. Wonder if they will be taking real measurements to be sent back for use in the models.
Given the last few seasons I doubt we will see anything of that intensity.....or I really hope we dont
Quoting 51. Gearsts:


Quoting 51. Gearsts:




That thing is bigger than the GOM. The GFS is getting a little excited there.
Quoting 53. Gearsts:




Certainly looks like it's sticking to it's previous runs. It may have even tracked even farther east so far.
its all about the turn
what is the consensus?

Quoting 46. Gearsts:

The Turn.

thats almost a 90 degree turn in a day
Quoting 57. SSL1441:



Certainly looks like it's sticking to it's previous runs. It may have even tracked even farther east so far.
LIKE 5 RUNS IN A ROW THE GFS TAKES IT NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE GOM.
this is assuming a large powerful storm correct?
Quoting 53. Gearsts:


That is one crazy anti-cyclone.
Quoting 52. 19N81W:

come on Dr. Masters I think we can do a little better than "anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland"


Actually, at this point, Dr. Masters is spot on. Given how tricky the synoptic pattern appears to be past five days, and the fact that the models do not yet have a well-defined LLC to latch onto, his synopsis was correct.
GFS is saying, " I know what I'm doing, you guys watch! " well, we will see if comes to true down the road.
Holy Cow Further East!
Oh goodness GFS still crazy IMO
I do think GFS will shift its just a matter of when

Quoting 64. Gearsts:

That is one crazy anti-cyclone.



There's little doubt in my mind that once this thing gets going, it's gonna get big real quick.
Normally these kinds of storms go into Mexico.....
Watch the 18Z run show it turning right after the Antilles.
Bernie Rayno just mentioned similarities to Hurricane Hazel. That gives me a sick feeling.
Thank You Dr. Masters for confirmation of how tough this storm will be to forecast; first in terms of intensity with short-term development before the Antilles, hitting the Western Caribbean graveyard, then bumping up again on the way through at some point and second in terms of steering issues down stream with so many possible solutions.

I would add two comments; depending on where it turns, it is going to present a significant rain and mudslide/flash flood threat to whatever Islands are caught in the North and NE Quad of the storm and that, as usual, intensity further downstream is going to be dependent not only on interaction with SA as it rides low, but with interaction with Cuba and Hispanola.

This is starting to look like a real nail biter down-stream in terms of track and intensity. I am thinking that the best advice is to follow the NHC 3-Day track closely (along with the daily adjustments to the cone every 12 hours or so) once they initiate a storm but if I lived in the Caribbean Islands, I would start some early prep and stock up on supplies.

If this storm responds to the ridges and trofs, and slows down quite a bit before accelerating to the North out of the Caribbean, it could produce some high rain totals for PR, Hispanola, and Cuba.






97L is continuing to
organise under very conducive conditions. good outflow especially in the north.low level banding is very evident. would not be surprise to see 97L go straight to tropical storm Mathew.
You can already see on the vis and vw loops, pursuant to Dr. Masters observation as to dry air issues propagating off of South America into the Caribbean, that the wave is "lopsided" in terms of moisture on the South side; the best chances for intensification will be as/when it pulls further North away from SA and gain some symmetry in the Southern Quad:





Quoting 69. SSL1441:



There's little doubt in my mind that once this thing gets going, it's gonna get big real quick.
If he stays low Venezuela has a big stick.
Odds should go code red at 2 in 48 hour outlook. GFS makes it a Tropical storm in 36-48 hours
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m
6 minutes ago


Pennsylvania, USA
Unless 97L gets tied up with S America ( low chance) a slow moving and likely major hurricane will be huge forecast headache, Caribbean 1st
Megi looking very large and formidable today. Bad news for Taiwan. The Doc was wrong to downplay it.


At 1200 UTC, 26 September 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 9.3°N and 46°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 19 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.







So 12 z GFs going further east track into Dr while 12z cmc going further west track be between Jamaica and Haiti over to the 12z euro will it go west or east let see

Roslyn.
where is the turn most of those models have it coming farther west?
Quoting 80. Patrap:



At 1200 UTC, 26 September 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 9.3°N and 46°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 19 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.








One wacky track from the GFS. Bends back towards the west towards New England after passing by Bermuda to the east.
In a very strange L shape.

Quoting 71. hurricanewatcher61:

Watch the 18Z run show it turning right after the Antilles.
Quoting 76. JNFlori30A:

If he stays low Venezuela has a big stick.


Hey Wait a minute! That's 'Merica's job to wave the big stick! XD JK JK JK.

yeah it certainly has to get a bit farther north. Never ever thought I'd say that for an Atlantic storm o.o

19 E which may or may not become either Seymour or Ulika.
HWRF seems reasonable in about 36 hours



I hope they get the GlobalHawk out in front once this is classified a TD. I'd be surveying conditions in Central Caribbean and around Bahamas Wednesday. I bet we see additional balloon measurements from NWS offices in southern US as well. Use the tools we have!
Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:

Oh goodness GFS still crazy IMO
I do think GFS will shift its just a matter of when


when the GfS hold in to solution even if it wrong model will time it sweet time to correct it
97L/future Matthew will be aided by a CCKW as well, which should help it continue to pop off thunderstorms. It should help aid it tonight as it begins to slow down and consolidate:



In addition, it has a strong anti-cyclone above it currently. Looking at the shear tendency map, you can see how shear is falling around the system due to it:



Will be interesting to see if the 12z GFS ensembles have shifted (once they're available).
I have been watching the evolution of the model runs, particularly the GFS with its hard right turn over the DR. While I tend to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism of models before a closed low forms, I cannot help but make a few observations as to why I have trouble with the intensity forecast of the GFS down the road, which in turn produces a stronger system that feels the pull from the trough.

At 06Z on Saturday the GFS shows the intensity as 993 mbs just barely off the coast of Venezuela and pretty much over the ABC islands. The model takes the system from a 1005/1006 mb low near 62 West to 993 mbs just beyond 70 W. This intensification is supposed to occur in an area of traditionally fast trades ( anyone ever seen the trees growing horizontal in Aruba ? ) where there should be some subsidence as well as dry air intrusion from the South American continent. Also, what of friction with land on the Southern side of the circulation ?.

Just a few issues to ponder when considering where 97L will go and how strong it might be in determining track.
Quoting 91. Envoirment:

97L/future Matthew will be aided by a CCKW as well, which should help it continue to pop off thunderstorms. It should help aid it tonight as it begins to slow down and consolidate:



In addition, it has a strong anti-cyclone above it currently. Looking at the shear tendency map, you can see how shear is falling around the system due to it:



Will be interesting to see if the 12z GFS ensembles have shifted (once they're available).
Water gets a bit warmer near the Antilles...

09/26/16 12Z UKMET further west





NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 21.3N 96.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2016 36 21.3N 96.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 28.09.2016 48 21.9N 96.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 29.09.2016 60 21.9N 97.0W 1008 34
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 22.0N 97.3W 1011 24
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56
Quoting 79. FlyingScotsman:

Megi looking very large and formidable today. Bad news for Taiwan. The Doc was wrong to downplay it.



Looks like it'll make landfall as a Category 4 now that it's finished its EWRC. CIMSS ADT already up to 125kts. Could be the most destructive storm for Taiwan this year as it'll affect pretty much all of the island including Taipei, the capital. GFS showing huge amounts of rain across large parts of Taiwan:

where do you think its going?


Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:

Oh goodness GFS still crazy IMO
I do think GFS will shift its just a matter of when


The mid-level environment for 97L looks very clear for the moment between it and the Lesser Antilles: the biggest issue for it in the short-term IMHO is dry air intrusion in the South Quad but noting that this might be overcome if some t-storms pop up to help insulate the core.

We have yet so see any sustained and persistent convection near the wave axis, with all the convection displaced to the North, but d-max overnight into tomorrow morning should be interesting as it tries to lower pressures.





Also overall GFS has been doing poor this year anyway




Quoting 97. 19N81W:

where do you think its going?





I think it will go W but too early to say how far W it will go for now I think 5 days from now I'd put it S-SE of Jamaica

Beyond that well ask me again in a few days

Quoting 97. 19N81W:

where do you think its going?





Where do you think WKC is going to predict where 97L is going to go?
The likelyhood of 97L Affecting Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman islands and the Dominican republic directly appears to be increasing in the long term. After that its once again dependent on the trof that will be coming down and see If its strong enough to push it away from southern Florida but a reminder that many things can happen till then but we need to keep a weary eye to our southeast and see how things unfold.
92. kmanislander
1:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2016

I think you pretty much nailed it; the storms best days are actually going to happen after it moves away from South America (in whatever direction that might be)..............................
Looks like the 12z UKMET has 97L getting tangled up with the 2 Peninsula's of Venezuela. This is definitely one tricky forecast to say the least.
Quoting 72. ecrugger:

Bernie Rayno just mentioned similarities to Hurricane Hazel. That gives me a sick feeling.


Way too early to know, but Hazel was moving west in the Caribbean, responded to a trough going through the Mississippi Valley. Could be a similar setup, might depend on where the storm is once it passes the Winwards.
Has a major hurricane ever hit South America
Quoting 101. Seflhurricane:

The likelyhood of 97L Affecting Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman islands and the Dominican republic directly appears to be increasing in the long term. After that its once again dependent on the trof that will be coming down and see If its strong enough to push it away from southern Florida but a reminder that many things can happen till then but we need to keep a weary eye to our southeast and see how things unfold.
Yep..This one will not be spinning harmlessly into the Atlantic...It could be a rough time of it for many of the Caribbean countries..South America may feel some fringe effects.
107. elioe
"The system was centered near 9.5°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin of its own."

That's hardly an explanation by itself. For example, Haiyan and Bopha were Cat 5 equivalent typhoons closer to the equator. And Coriolis effect is solely dependent on latitude, not longitude. So: why doesn't Atlantic have storms forming relatively close to the equator, unlike West Pacific? In the Atlantic, sea surface is colder near the equator than between 10-20 degrees north. That could be an explanation.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12

Whatever environmental issues #97L might have, water temperature won't be one of them. West Atlantic is at near-record levels overall.



Link
Typhoon Megi, 1640 UTC (source : RAMMB-CIRA / Himawari-8) :

Click picture to open larger version.
110. ackee
97L looking good seems want to be TD soon
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:



Way too early to know, but Hazel was moving west in the Caribbean, responded to a trough going through the Mississippi Valley. Could be a similar setup, might depend on where the storm is once it passes the Winwards.
Quoting 92. kmanislander:

I have been watching the evolution of the model runs, particularly the GFS with its hard right turn over the DR. While I tend to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism of models before a closed low forms, I cannot help but make a few observations as to why I have trouble with the intensity forecast of the GFS down the road, which in turn produces a stronger system that feels the pull from the trough.

At 06Z on Saturday the GFS shows the intensity as 993 mbs just barely off the coast of Venezuela and pretty much over the ABC islands. The model takes the system from a 1005/1006 mb low near 62 West to 993 mbs just beyond 70 W. This intensification is supposed to occur in an area of traditionally fast trades ( anyone ever seen the trees growing horizontal in Aruba ? ) where there should be some subsidence as well as dry air intrusion from the South American continent. Also, what of friction with land on the Southern side of the circulation ?.

Just a few issues to ponder when considering where 97L will go and how strong it might be in determining track.


Levi gave a great explanation about the trade winds in his last video:

Link

Worth watching.
I sure hope folks down on the Islands are preparing, gees looks like a buzzsaw huh................
115. ackee
Quoting 94. nrtiwlnvragn:

09/26/16 12Z UKMET further west





NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 21.3N 96.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2016 36 21.3N 96.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 28.09.2016 48 21.9N 96.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 29.09.2016 60 21.9N 97.0W 1008 34
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 22.0N 97.3W 1011 24
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC ,+q30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

further west for 97L if the 12z Euro west the Gfs out to lunch
97L is currently quite the anomaly in this particular location and time at the moment per the TCFP page; not hard to see why you can throw out any past analog storms at this point for any guidance as to what this storm may or may not do................................





Quoting 111. wunderkidcayman:



Flagged

Stop acting like a brat

No I don't think it will be where you think i think it will be

Read #99 if you wanna really wanna know what I think if not then push off




Quoting 92. kmanislander:

I have been watching the evolution of the model runs, particularly the GFS with its hard right turn over the DR. While I tend to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism of models before a closed low forms, I cannot help but make a few observations as to why I have trouble with the intensity forecast of the GFS down the road, which in turn produces a stronger system that feels the pull from the trough.

At 06Z on Saturday the GFS shows the intensity as 993 mbs just barely off the coast of Venezuela and pretty much over the ABC islands. The model takes the system from a 1005/1006 mb low near 62 West to 993 mbs just beyond 70 W. This intensification is supposed to occur in an area of traditionally fast trades ( anyone ever seen the trees growing horizontal in Aruba ? ) where there should be some subsidence as well as dry air intrusion from the South American continent. Also, what of friction with land on the Southern side of the circulation ?.

Just a few issues to ponder when considering where 97L will go and how strong it might be in determining track.


Ah yes, the dividivi tree.
I have to give 97L credit it timed the SAL outbreak perfectly.

Every single member of the GFS ensembles are east of Florida but are closer to the U.S then operational run.
Quoting 79. FlyingScotsman:

Megi looking very large and formidable today. Bad news for Taiwan. The Doc was wrong to downplay it.



Never mind that, though, look at all the DEEP CONVECTION!!!!!!!!!
Starting to see the first signs of an LLC trying to emerge around 48.5 W - 9.8 N: will note that appears to be headed W-NW at the moment.  It needs to gain some latitude over the next few days to in order for the axis to miss the top of South America around 11 N.



I was thinking the same thing re the turn being so aggressive....especially in an area that over the last few years during our recent quiet period has destroyed storms.....that being said Hazel did it (thanks capeflorida)
Quoting 113. Envoirment:



Levi gave a great explanation about the trade winds in his last video:

Link

Worth watching.
To the rest of you guys I'm sorry yes I know he is trying to get under my skin and he is doing a fine job

But look I am sick of this crap now
TWO out 97L upped to 70/90%

Former Lisa upped to 10/10%

New area in GOM 10/10%
Quoting 113. Envoirment:



Levi gave a great explanation about the trade winds in his last video:

Link

Worth watching.


I would like to hear an update based on the current conditions now 24 hours later. The models have really come together showing a turn to the north, crossing the Islands, and then OTS (maybe affecting Bermuda).
I would like hear if Levi is on board with the current models.
Quoting 125. wunderkidcayman:

To the rest of you guys I'm sorry yes I know he is trying to get under my skin and he is doing a fine job

But look I am sick of this crap now


It's called "ignore user" and you'll find it at the action section under his comment. :)
70% percent 90% percent now for 97L
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:



I would like to hear an update based on the current conditions now 24 hours later. The models have really come together showing a turn to the north, crossing the Islands, and then OTS (maybe affecting Bermuda).
I would like hear if Levi is on board with the current models.


He'll likely put one out between 7-9 tonight. That's usually when his week day ones come out.
I know in the Appalachians the more isolated peaks have tree growth similar to Aruba. Mostly growing in the same projection as the dominant wind pattern.
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:



I would like to hear an update based on the current conditions now 24 hours later. The models have really come together showing a turn to the north, crossing the Islands, and then OTS (maybe affecting Bermuda).
I would like hear if Levi is on board with the current models.


But they haven't. The Euro ensembles have shifted west quite a bit and the UKMET has shifted westward, whilst the GFS has shifted eastward. The pattern is quite complex and it's hard to tell where the storm will go in the long range. Dr. Masters summed it up nicely:

"97L could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can't narrow things down much at this point."
The next 3 days the tracks of 97L still looks to be on point approaching Barbados, then the Windward Islands and continuing on a westward path. It's in 4-5 days when the models diverge. Which is still a long ways out to nail down any forecast. Any scenario from Central America to an OTS scenario is still on the table.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have increased and become slightly better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to
tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Shower activity has redeveloped in association with the remnants of
Lisa, located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores. This system
is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before
regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over northeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

HWRF has it going just south of Hispaniola..

136. IDTH
Quoting 132. Envoirment:



But they haven't. The Euro ensembles have shifted west quite a bit and the UKMET has shifted westward, whilst the GFS has shifted eastward. The pattern is quite complex and it's hard to tell where the storm will go in the long range. Dr Master's summed it up nicely:

"97L could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can’t narrow things down much at this point."


Doesn't the GFS tend to have trough bias?
I have a question- if 97L is not as intense as the GFS as forecasting- would a weaker storm be less likely to feel the influence of the trough and therefore go further west and be a greater threat to the Cayman Islands and Western Caribbean? And also with that said- models still shift a lot after 4-5 days so obviously I'm watching this closely.
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:



I would like to hear an update based on the current conditions now 24 hours later. The models have really come together showing a turn to the north, crossing the Islands, and then OTS (maybe affecting Bermuda).
I would like hear if Levi is on board with the current models.


Levi will most likely go as far as five days, and that's it. Even he doesn't know what is going to transpire downstream; no one does. Levi does not engage in armchair prognostication. At most, he'll offer what Dr. Masters said; "could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can’t narrow things down much at this point."
Quoting 117. GeoffreyWPB:




Haha
12Z Euro now running - Link
that looks like a cat 3 plus.....I will be the armchair meteorologist and suggest that it wont be anywhere near that strong....I hope...
Quoting 135. hydrus:

HWRF has it going just south of Hispaniola..


12z HWRF is further N than the GFS at the end of its run.

Quoting 53. Gearsts:



Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:

Oh goodness GFS still crazy IMO
I do think GFS will shift its just a matter of when




OMG Why????? Why??
Alright here we go.

Quoting 71. hurricanewatcher61:

Watch the 18Z run show it turning right after the Antilles.


Yep! xD
Maybe this will be the October "suprise" for the election????
most on here will agree that the thinking generally is that the bigger the system is the further north it gets pulled....
but as also mentioned on here no one knows.........I think it will miss us just to the east which is bad for Jamaica but I also think it will be a weaker storm.....here is hoping it does what all the storms have done this year and that mostly nothing but rain.
Quoting 137. GrandCaymanMed:

I have a question- if 97L is not as intense as the GFS as forecasting- would a weaker storm be less likely to feel the influence of the trough and therefore go further west and be a greater threat to the Cayman Islands and Western Caribbean? And also with that said- models still shift a lot after 4-5 days so obviously I'm watching this closely.
Shots up now on the RAMMB site; actually one of the best looking waves/proto-TD's we have seen in sometime at the moment before the interaction with South America:






150. IDTH
I'm very interested in the track of this system because if it goes with the northern track I understand how disastrous it can be for DR but if it goes west instead the intensity could be even worse and that's what has me on the edge of my seat.

The northern Caribbean is a hot tub that could support a record breaking storm and it's very well possible that if it does not reach that area, this system may not become a cat 5. I know this is far out but there isn't as much heat content in the east Caribbean than the north and west.

Just something to think about.
GFS still has Hispaniola in the path.

and?

Quoting 144. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright here we go.


WKC...We do this every year. It's a tradition! It's always been in fun. I have respect for you and what you do. Lighten up a little and let's watch the progression of 97L.
Quoting 137. GrandCaymanMed:

I have a question- if 97L is not as intense as the GFS as forecasting- would a weaker storm be less likely to feel the influence of the trough and therefore go further west and be a greater threat to the Cayman Islands and Western Caribbean? And also with that said- models still shift a lot after 4-5 days so obviously I'm watching this closely.

Theoretically yes ... but i cant seem to remeber a storm being influenced north by a front that is in the southeastern caribbean. Having a hard time trusting the models today past 3 or 4 days
We are red in 48 hours said it earlier post 77
Quoting 148. CybrTeddy:




And that pending LLC is slowly trying to wrap around some of the convection just to the N-NW.
Quoting 113. Envoirment:



Levi gave a great explanation about the trade winds in his last video:

Link

Worth watching.


I saw that video yesterday. Trades are but one factor. Also, the fact that they may be slower in that area this time of year compared to earlier does not necessarily mean that the trades are slow on a relative basis as compared to the remainder of the basin farther West
158. elioe
A borderline Cat 4/5. And deepening by 9 mbar during previous 6 hours. Yet, almost 6 hours before projected landfall just west of Santo Domingo. Ouch.

12z navgem completely different, weaker and way further south and west





🌊🌎🎑🌞
On top of the CCKW coming through the MJO will also give it a boost in the Caribbean.

12z GFDL:

Quoting 132. Envoirment:



But they haven't. The Euro ensembles have shifted west quite a bit and the UKMET has shifted westward, whilst the GFS has shifted eastward. The pattern is quite complex and it's hard to tell where the storm will go in the long range. Dr. Masters summed it up nicely:

"97L could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can't narrow things down much at this point."



That's going to be some cone.
12Z Euro is running. It looks like the low might be slightly north of the 00Z run as the low moves into the Caribbean.
I take it back. Looks pretty similar up through 72 hours.
Quoting 160. Patrap:






🌊🌎🎑🌞
i see lots of shear ahead of this invest. i dont see this being something significant as long as the shear is there.someone correct me if am wrong
Thank you fellow weather enthusiasts for answering my question! That's why I love this blog! :)

Quoting 143. CaribBoy:




OMG Why????? Why??

On the current track you will likely see squalls with tropical storm force wind gusts due to the pressure gradient north of 97L even if it were to not develop before reaching the islands. I do agree with Masters that this may be a 60-70 mph tropical storm maximum when moving through and that combined with the pressure gradient will give you short lived tropical storm conditions in squalls.
Quoting 163. Grothar:



That's going to be some cone.


Quoting 165. knightwarrior41:

i see lots of shear ahead of this invest. i dont see this being something significant as long as the shear is there.someone correct me if am wrong


I hope and pray that shear destroys 97L, but sadly even if 97 were to never develop (which is extremely unlikely at this point based on the monster anticyclone forecasted over it by the GFS) even the rain from it could be disasterous for Hispaniola.
Quoting 167. Patrap:




i was thinking of more of an ice cream cone but that will do :0)
170. IDTH
Mark Sudduth has a new video update
Link
And this is why the NHC only uses 5 day forecast "Cone of Uncertainty" or 5 days on their TWO. Because if they went past that like Grothar said it would be one huge cone.
Quoting 153. GeoffreyWPB:

WKC...We do this every year. It's a tradition! It's always been in fun. I have respect for you and what you do. Lighten up a little and let's watch the progression of 97L.


Fun for who!!!

For you yeah maybe

But not for me
You sicko

Geezz

Quoting 159. wunderweatherman123:

12z navgem completely different, weaker and way further south and west


Not surprised

Quoting 162. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12z GFDL:




Yep

Quoting 157. kmanislander:



I saw that video yesterday. Trades are but one factor. Also, the fact that they may be slower in that area this time of year compared to earlier does not necessarily mean that the trades are slow on a relative basis as compared to the remainder of the basin farther West
Good afternoon. Do you think this has a decent chance of reaching us ?
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:

12Z Euro is running. It looks like the low might be slightly north of the 00Z run as the low moves into the Caribbean.
I take it back. Looks pretty similar up through 72 hours.


Nah not slightly N it's pretty much the same but further W
Going right over Aruba and towards the peninsula of Venezuela.

Quoting 173. stormwatcherCI:

Good afternoon. Do you think this has a decent chance of reaching us ?


I'm going to assume that you are referring to all people when you use the term "us" in that question. All people in the sense that we are humanity, we are one, we are us. If the system reaches anyone, it will have reached us. So, I'd put the chances of it reaching us in some form or another as nearly 100%.
I want a true storm, models are upsetting lol
Appears to be 2 camps of thinking here: A stronger system approaching the islands gaining latitude and moving further north as the GFS and HWRF are thinking or a weaker system approaching the islands and keeping a more west to almost wsw heading as the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and GFDL are suggesting. Let the model wars begin.
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:



Nah not slightly N it's pretty much the same but further W


You missed my last two sentences.

Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:

12Z Euro is running. It looks like the low might be slightly north of the 00Z run as the low moves into the Caribbean.
I take it back. Looks pretty similar up through 72 hours.
Quoting 176. Icantthinkofausernam:



I'm going to assume that you are referring to all people when you use the term "us" in that question. All people in the sense that we are humanity, we are one, we are us. If the system reaches anyone, it will have reached us. So, I'd put the chances of it reaching us in some form or another as nearly 100%.
Actually, I was referring to us as in the Cayman Islands. Of course I know it will hit somewhere .
Quoting 177. CaribBoy:

I want a true storm, models are upsetting lol


Things that 'true storm' may still miss you :P
Satellite images may be degraded for a while

Link


DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: A GOES-13 STAR TRACKER 3 (ST3) ANOMALY
OCCURRED ON AUGUST 30, 2016 AND THE INVESTIGATION TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT
ST3 IS NON-RECOVERABLE. GOES ENGINEERING WILL POWER ON STAR TRACKER 2
(ST2) AND TRANSITION TO ST1-ST2 ATTITUDE CONTROL CONFIGURATION FOR GOES-13
ON SEPTEMBER 26, 2016. ST2 WILL BE TURNED ON AT AROUND 1620 UTC AND
TWO-TRACKER ATTITUDE CONFIGURATION OPERATION WILL START AT AROUND 1800
UTC. USERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DEGRADATION OF GOES-EAST PRODUCTS FOR
APPROXIMATELY 30 HOURS UNTIL IMAGE NAVIGATION AND REGISTRATION (INR)
PERFORMANCE HAS RETURNED TO SPECIFICATION.
Ecmwf is pathetic
AL, 97, 2016092618, , BEST, 0, 99N, 486W, 25, 1008, DB


from 1010 too 1008mb
Quoting 175. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Going right over Aruba and towards the peninsula of Venezuela.




At a pressure of 1000 Mbs. More believable than 993
Already more west than in prior runs, now its stating its strengthening phase.
are you showing us the trough?
Quoting 179. WeatherkidJoe2323:




Quoting 156. weathermanwannabe:



And that pending LLC is slowly trying to wrap around some of the convection just to the N-NW.
is that a eye like figure? Lol
The nhc has shortened the "cone". It will turn right after the windwards
10 years ago tonight after 13 months,we got our collective voice back after tragedy.


The Saints reopened the Superdome on Monday Night Football in 2006, and they scored their first touchdown in dramatic fashion as Steve Gleason blocks the Falcons punt and Curtis DeLoatch recovers it in the end zone.

Tonight we play Atlanta again on MNF.
The block heard round the world




The MNF ...First Responder Hero Pics
By: Patrap , 9:37 PM CDT on October 18, 2006 .
12Z Euro and 12Z GFDL are saying GFS is out to lunch. Well see as it appears another model battle between the GFS and Euro is at play yet again.
Quoting 173. stormwatcherCI:

Good afternoon. Do you think this has a decent chance of reaching us ?


Too far out in time to say at the moment but by Thursday the possibilities will be much clearer. It has a chance but no way to know what the odds are.
26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic


AL, 97, 2016092618, , BEST, 0, 99N, 486W, 25, 1008, DB
12Z Euro made the north turn a little further west of the OOZ run.
144h... bye bye W Carib wishcasters lol
200. TXCWC
Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro and 12Z GFDL are saying GFS is out to lunch. Well see as it appears another model battle between the GFS and Euro is at play yet again.

EURO falling in line more with its 0Z Ensembles

more of a NW shift instead of due north.
12z Euro much further S and W
Dr. Masters notes above that it might be able to close off and make TD or TS status just before or as it passes through the Antilles late Tuesday or on Wednesday; if that actually happens, then it will start to gain latitude and a trek into the Western Caribbean is probably less likely.

At this point, as we know that the track models do better with an actual storm, the sooner the storm forms, and NHC starts issuing their cone, the better for all interests downstream so they can make decisions as to whether they need to prepare or not..............................One thing looks pretty certain and that is that this storm will have a pretty large signature before it consolidates so the impacts are probably going to be felt well outside of the center-line of the cones.







The ECMWF and GFS put the system right on top of us or very close to us here on Curaçao. Our government has issued a statement that we do not need to worry. They will let us know if and when to prepare. :/
Just my luck.. Leaving on a 7 day cruise from Port Canaveral to St Thomas. St Martin oct 2nd.. Things are not looking to good right now. Maybe they change itinerary when this happens?? Not sure. Anyone?
500mb West Atlantic ridge on the ECMWF looks solid out to 144 hrs
12Z Euro moving NW @ 144hrs towards Jamaica/Caymans

Jamaica i think will be smacked this run
Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro moving NW @ 144hrs towards Jamaica/Caymans




Not for long.
Quoting 206. Drakoen:

500mb West Atlantic ridge on the ECMWF looks solid out to 144 hrs


Key is the upper trough over the Ohio Valley. Euro keeps it further west while the GFS tries to push it farther East thus creating a weakness for a strong 97L to escape out of the Caribbean. Euro says no way infact 12Z euro may want this in the Gulf at 240hrs.
Quoting 195. kmanislander:



Too far out in time to say at the moment but by Thursday the possibilities will be much clearer. It has a chance but no way to know what the odds are.
Thank you. I know there is little certainty but wanted to know if there was a chance as I keep seeing this N/NW turn.
212. ackee
No surprise to me the CMc 12 z and the reliable euro 12z Ukmet all in agreement further west for 97L whatever it becomes GFs out to lunch
Quoting 209. CaribBoy:



Not for long.
LOL, CaribBoy is hoping for a a shift NorthEast from there on out.
The Euro continues to be a southern outlier compared to the rest of the guidance. Making landfall in Colombia seems unlikely.
Euro still moving NW @ 168hrs. Appears a path toward FL this run. Infact you can kinda make out the steering toward the NW thru the rest of the run.

Euro showing a much weaker storm.
18Z runs
With the exception of a few models that take it NW into Hispaniola most of them and the wining consensus shifted W with not much N

Quoting 215. StormTrackerScott:

Euro still moving NW @ 168hrs. Appears a path toward FL this run. Infact you can kinda make out the steering toward the NW thru the rest of the run.




Will go towards E cuba then OTS
Quoting 206. Drakoen:

500mb West Atlantic ridge on the ECMWF looks solid out to 144 hrs


I seen that unlike gfs
It will still come NW due to the troughiness but perhaps farther west than before.
221. PR51
Quoting 218. CaribBoy:



Will go towards E cuba then OTS
Nothing for PR... well...now we can say we are safe.
Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Euro continues to be a southern outlier compared to the rest of the guidance. Making landfall in Colombia seems unlikely.


UKMET has an SA landfall. Won't rule it out entirely.
NHC did their first preliminary forecast for the 18Z SHIPS. Notice the LAND (KM) row.


Quoting 216. masiello3:

Euro showing a much weaker storm.


Only because it gets tangled up in SA. Pretty rare for that to happen, but not impossible. Looks close to the UKMET so far.
ECMWF turns Matthew north a little further W than the GFS.

However, the turn exists; no GOMEX storm.
12Z Euro makes a sharp turn back to the North at 192 hours heading towards western Haiti.
The GFS is not so out to lunch. No Cayman landfall, no Jamaica landfall, and no FL landfall on the 12z euro.
We will more than likely see the EURO get closer to the GFS than vice versa in the short term.

229. JKC
I'm in St Croix. The Hurricane Hunters have arrived and are scheduled to fly into 97L Tuesday. Does anyone think the system is tracking more West/NW on the Satellite Imagery over the past few hours?
Just noting that the wave looks a little bit like a Raccoon, or extinct Platypus, on this shot:



Even if it initially misses the CONUS and runs up the east coast, there is always the possibility it could be blocked into still making landfall further north. Given the warm SST's, and the fact that it will be very early October, it could potentially be an enormous storm with an enormous wind field north of 35N. This should be a wild 10 days coming up.

Quoting 203. weathermanwannabe:

Dr. Masters notes above that it might be able to close off and make TD or TS status just before or as it passes through the Antilles late Tuesday or on Wednesday; if that actually happens, then it will start to gain latitude and a trek into the Western Caribbean is probably less likely.

At this point, as we know that the track models do better with an actual storm, the sooner the storm forms, and NHC starts issuing their cone, the better for all interests downstream so they can make decisions as to whether they need to prepare or not..............................One thing looks pretty certain and that is that this storm will have a pretty large signature before it consolidates so the impacts are probably going to be felt well outside of the center-line of the cones.








12Z Euro is crossing eastern Cuba at 216 hours
12z Euro is about 150 miles west of the 00Z run as the system crosses Cuba.
Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro and 12Z GFDL are saying GFS is out to lunch. Well see as it appears another model battle between the GFS and Euro is at play yet again.


A minor semantic point. The model solutions differ. This does not mean a battle, only differences in solution.

Solutions that keep these systems far from DC metro are personally preferred :-)
Quoting 232. Sfloridacat5:

12Z Euro is crossing western Cuba at 216 hours


Yep
235. ackee
Both 12z run of the Euro and CMC track are the same wow




🌞🌎🎑🌊
Lol Euro still taking it NNE just E of Jamaica

Models are nuts

Anyway hoping the picture become clearer over next few days also when recon flies
Ok Euro 12 compared to the earlier 00Z 12z shifted W
Quoting 154. hurricaneryan87:


Theoretically yes ... but i cant seem to remeber a storm being influenced north by a front that is in the southeastern caribbean. Having a hard time trusting the models today past 3 or 4 days


Hazel. (produced strongest wind gust ever recorded at DCA.. 91mph)
Outflow beginning. Good overall structure.

Wonder if this wave will dodge the dust when it exits Africa into the Atlantic..

Quoting 241. hydrus:

Wonder if this wave will dodge the dust when it exits Africa into the Atlantic..




I was noticing that one, too -- it is a whopper of an African low.
Quoting 234. CaribBoy:



Yep


Eastern Cuba, not western.
Quoting 240. Grothar:

Outflow beginning. Good overall structure.




Looks more like a fat Cat lounging on the carpet in that shot................................
Big Mississippi Valley trough to save(?) the day ;)
Quoting 236. Patrap:





🌞🌎🎑🌊


That's gonna be one heck of a five day cone if that were to develop.
Quoting 241. hydrus:

Wonder if this wave will dodge the dust when it exits Africa into the Atlantic..




The long range has this following a path similar to 97L
GFS and ECMWF are total opposites as it pertains to speed.

12z GFS is bookin' it on out of here at 240hrs; already N and E of Bermuda.

12z ECMWF has just off the eastern tip of Cuba.



Quoting 242. OrchidGrower:



I was noticing that one, too -- it is a whopper of an African low.
Greetings OG...That wave will likely come off well south of the Cape Verde Islands, may not do the same track as Lisa...

Will be nice to see what the models say once we have a center of circulation to track. If it's further north, it'll be more likely to strengthen and vice versa. Can't wait for all the recon data to come as well to help give us a better idea of what the system might do.
I'm sure many things will change in the days to come, but so far many similarities to the Hazel track. Nearly wiped Holden Beach off the map. 150mph winds at landfall.

Quoting 239. georgevandenberghe:



Hazel. (produced strongest wind gust ever recorded at DCA.. 91mph)
Updated: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 18:30:04 GMT
Atlantic Basin

No Active Warnings
As of Mon, 26 Sep 2016 18:30:04 GMT
Quoting 198. CaribBoy:

144h... bye bye W Carib wishcasters lol
coming from the king of wishcasting!! I wish u would get your storm so maybe it will make u happy and quiet. Lol
Quoting 243. nash36:



Eastern Cuba, not western.


I caught and corrected the mistake literally 5 seconds after I posted it. You guys jump on stuff like a pigeon on popcorn.
The NAVGEM has landfall on Jamaica. However, this is more than 5 days out.

Megi's eye getting squeezed by a hot tower:


Loop
Quoting 238. wunderkidcayman:

Ok Euro 12 compared to the earlier 00Z 12z shifted W


How far west?
265. IDTH
Quoting 257. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'm sure many things will change in the days to come, but so far many similarities to the Hazel track. Nearly wiped Holden Beach off the map. 150mph winds at landfall.



I'm hoping this is not Hazel 2.0. The last thing NC needs is more rainfall when the ground is extremely saturated from what was left from Julia.







SYNOPSIS 2016092600 P41L 10N, 6W

700 hPa ECMWF: Tracks WNW for a couple days, then turns subtly to the NW. Used 0-108 hours for phase speeds.

OW starts at 1.5x10-9 s-2. Except for values of 2x10-9 s-2 at 12 hours and 3x10-9 s-2 at 48 hours,

OW remains less than 2x10-9 s-2. Becomes an open V-shaped trough at 120 hours north of 21N.

GFS: Tracks WNW for about three days (left of ECMWF), then turns sharply to the NNW, tracking more toward the north than ECMWF for the last couple days.
Used 0-84 hours for phase speeds. OW is over 2x10-9 s-2 at 00 and 24 hours;
otherwise, it remains less for all other times.

Opens up into a V-shaped trough on Day 5.

UKMET: HWRF-GEN: ECMWF -7.7 3.2 track 120h GFS -8.6 2.6 track 108h UKMET HWGEN

POSS T.C.F.A.
97L/INV/XX/CX
Quoting 239. georgevandenberghe:



Hazel. (produced strongest wind gust ever recorded at DCA.. 91mph)


Forgive me if I'm wrong, but...wasn't Sandy similar?
97 needs to stay north of the ABCs could be entangled in the northern part of s america. hope caracas venezuela is ready. its a huge city perched on a bunch of mountains. the people when i was there back in the 70s were poor. imagine its way more crowded and still poor. good luck to them
First pinpricks of convection starting to get drawn-in towards the emerging LLC around 48.5 W - 9.5 N from the North (at 10N):










Quoting 264. luvtogolf:



How far west?


Almost nothing at the end of the run.
About 150 miles west crossing Cuba but by the end of the run the low is almost in the same place (just barely west of the 00Z).
Quoting 255. Patrap:






Please Pat, can Quint be retired? :)

Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro and 12Z GFDL are saying GFS is out to lunch. Well see as it appears another model battle between the GFS and Euro is at play yet again.


Once crosses Eastern Cuba and the other the DR. That's not that far off. What is far off is timing. Either one is not a threat to FL.
Quoting 262. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The NAVGEM has landfall on Jamaica. However, this is more than 5 days out.




And it is also the NAVGEM
Quoting 271. Sfloridacat5:



Almost nothing at the end of the run.
About 150 miles west crossing Cuba but by the end of the run the low is almost in the same place (just barely west of the 00Z).


Then I'm wondering why did he say the model shifted West?
276. ackee
GFS vs the Euro last couple of major battle the Euro came out on top if I was a betting man I always take the Euro guess we see even other models are in agreement with the Euro will the 18Z GfS fall in line let see
Quoting 257. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'm sure many things will change in the days to come, but so far many similarities to the Hazel track. Nearly wiped Holden Beach off the map. 150mph winds at landfall.


My Dad remembers Hazel..It was a behemoth storm that maintained much of its power while quickly moving the Mid Atlantic States and Canada....Excerpt from Wiki..

The effects of Hazel were particularly unprecedented in Toronto, as a result of a combination of a lack of experience in dealing with tropical storms and the storm's unexpected retention of power. Hazel had traveled 1,100 km (680 mi) over land, but while approaching Canada, it had merged with an existing powerful cold front. The storm stalled over the Greater Toronto Area, and although it was now extratropical, it remained as powerful as a category 1 hurricane. To help with the cleanup, 800 members of the military were summoned, and a Hurricane Relief Fund was established that distributed $5.1 million (2009: $41.7 million) in aid.
After North Carolina, the storm went through Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York. In general, power was knocked out and trees were downed. Wind gusts throughout the area reached 160 km/h (99 mph). Though not near the center, a gust of 182 km/h (113 mph) was recorded in Battery Park, the highest wind speed ever recorded within the municipal boundaries of New York City.
I'm kinda parcel to the quint scale myself.

Just don't wanna see a Quint5 though.






Quoting 275. luvtogolf:



Then I'm wondering why did he say the model shifted West?


He didn't wait to see the entire run.
The 12Z run makes the turn to the north further to the west. For most of the 12Z run, it's west of the 00Z run. But towards the end of the run they basically end up in the same location.

Quoting 268. CCSoFLA79:



Forgive me if I'm wrong, but...wasn't Sandy similar?


Not for DC.
Pedley must be baking....


: ...Ventura County...
:
CMA : Camarillo : 104 / 62 / 0.00
FILC1: Fillmore : 104 / 68 / 0.00
LOKC1: Lockwood Vly Yard : 80 / 53 / 0.00
OJAC1: Ojai : 104 / 57 / 0.00
LOXC1: Oxnard - NWS : 102 / 64 / 0.00
SMVC1: Simi Valley : 97 / 76 / 0.00
VTUC1: Ventura : 100 / 71 / 0.00
WLVC1: Westlake Village : 100 / 55 / 0.00


Link
282. ackee
Quoting 274. JrWeathermanFL:



And it is also the NAVGEM
even the Navgem closer to euro and the other models
Quoting 276. ackee:

GFS vs the Euro last couple of major battle the Euro came out on top if I was a betting man I always take the Euro guess we see even other models are in agreement with the Euro will the 18Z GfS fall in line let see


Didn't the GFS out perform with Hermine?
The interesting question for the short term will be whether NHC (in the absence of recon and based upon satt data from estimated winds) will skip TD and go right to TS based upon presentation. It's looking pretty good at the moment and starting to stack-up around the 10N mark in spite of the current forward speed, based on the CIMMS update:

Mid-Level Vort:

Surface Vort:


97L seems like it slowed down maybe moving around 10-15 mph, also does seems to be getting better organized as the day goes by.
Quoting 263. EmsiNasklug:

Megi's eye squeezed by a hot tower:


Loop


That image is about 12 hours old, actually. Much more organized now.
anybody know when recon is going in?


I think 97L is a TD now 10N/49W
Quoting 288. chrisdscane:

anybody know when recon is going in?


tusday
Quoting 107. elioe:

"The system was centered near 9.5°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin of its own."

That's hardly an explanation by itself. For example, Haiyan and Bopha were Cat 5 equivalent typhoons closer to the equator. And Coriolis effect is solely dependent on latitude, not longitude. So: why doesn't Atlantic have storms forming relatively close to the equator, unlike West Pacific? In the Atlantic, sea surface is colder near the equator than between 10-20 degrees north. That could be an explanation.
The way the Atlantic is set up is that most of the hurricanes originate from the tropical waves that form over Africa. Most of the waves form at around 10-15 degrees north. Rarely does a wave make it farther south than 10 degrees north. In fact, the record lowest latitude for a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic is about 7 degrees north. Just the way the ITCZ/tropical waves are set up.
Megi looking mean.
Quoting 288. chrisdscane:

anybody know when recon is going in?


Tomorrow...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 26 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX O1FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 11.5N 54.5W D. 11.5N 57.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
Megi


What is the likelihood that 97L eventually makes a direct US landfall?
Quoting 289. stormpetrol:



I think 97L is a TD now


Getting close. Definitely by tomorrow.
Looks to me like the lower level swirl we were seeing earlier around 9N has slipped under the convective burst now at at 49W-10N:






Quoting 295. lobdelse81:

What is the likelihood that 97L eventually makes a direct US landfall?


A 17% chance.
Quoting 289. stormpetrol:



I think 97L is a TD now


Looks and actuality are two different things. And yes, it does look healthy.
Quoting 277. hydrus:

My Dad remembers Hazel..It was a behemoth storm that maintained much of its power while quickly moving the Mid Atlantic States and Canada....Excerpt from Wiki..

The effects of Hazel were particularly unprecedented in Toronto, as a result of a combination of a lack of experience in dealing with tropical storms and the storm's unexpected retention of power. Hazel had traveled 1,100 km (680 mi) over land, but while approaching Canada, it had merged with an existing powerful cold front. The storm stalled over the Greater Toronto Area, and although it was now extratropical, it remained as powerful as a category 1 hurricane. To help with the cleanup, 800 members of the military were summoned, and a Hurricane Relief Fund was established that distributed $5.1 million (2009: $41.7 million) in aid.
After North Carolina, the storm went through Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York. In general, power was knocked out and trees were downed. Wind gusts throughout the area reached 160 km/h (99 mph). Though not near the center, a gust of 182 km/h (113 mph) was recorded in Battery Park, the highest wind speed ever recorded within the municipal boundaries of New York City.

Quoting 298. luvtogolf:



A 17% chance.


I'm going with 18%. Gonna be bold here.
302. ackee
Quoting 299. GeoffreyWPB:



Looks and actuality are two different things. And yes, it does look healthy.

well 97L as strong vorticity at all levels pressure 1008mb it looks like a TD recon tommrow be interesting
97L is moving a lot of atmosphere as it slowly but steadily organises.



🌎🌊🌞✌

Quoting 301. Icantthinkofausernam:



I'm going with 18%. Gonna be bold here.


Now that's sticking your neck out!
Quoting 300. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


One heck of a storm.
Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST September 26 2016
==================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

About 210 KM South Of Ishigaki Island
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (940 hPa) located at 22.5N 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
140 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
350 NM from the center in north quadrant
240 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 24.5N 119.2E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Taiwan Strait
48 HRS: 24.9N 115.4E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
What is the likelihood that the US ends its major hurricane drought this year?
If you note the updated 2:00 pm CIMSS shear chart, 97L is taking advantage of the current lull in shear to improve the overall structure. Not sure whether it will be able to close off before going through the next shear band over the next 24 when it emerges into another favorable window just before reaching the Antilles:



Quoting 287. Patrap:




I was looking for Brody in a third frame...
Quoting 295. lobdelse81:

What is the likelihood that 97L eventually makes a direct US landfall?



9%

These probabilities are not official forecasts, and should never replace them. These probabilities are of a climatological nature only, and do not necessarily represent the actual probability for a given storm. Each storm is unique and is likely to have probabilities that are higher or lower than the mean shown here. Please consult your official agency for official forecasts.

Specifically, these statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error. Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

If any of the information presented here is confusing, contact the author or disregard all content.
Quoting 303. Patrap:

97L is moving a lot of atmosphere as it slowly but steadily organises.



🌎🌊🌞✌




Heck of a gust front on the south side.

At 1800 UTC, 26 September 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 9.9°N and 48.6°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 22 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.





if the trend of 97L Organizeing keeps going i say we could have TD 14 by 11pm tonight and a tropical storm over night or when recon gos in
Quoting 52. 19N81W:

come on Dr. Masters I think we can do a little better than "anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland"


How bout Guinia to Greenland. I'm gonna get ya suckas even if it has ta kill me!!!
Pretty dramatic discrepancy between the ECMWF and GFS in terms of the system's location in 10 days.

12z GFS at 240 hours.


12z ECMWF at 240 hours.
Quoting 300. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Quoting 268. CCSoFLA79:



Forgive me if I'm wrong, but...wasn't Sandy similar?


Very different for the entire Eastern Seaboard. Hazel tracked almost due north through the carolinas, VA, PA and up into SE Canada. Sandy tracked northwest and then west northwest from the Atlantic putting the Mid Atlantic in the left front quadrant which would have been weaker even for a tropical system which Sandy no longer was at landfall. Instead the Mid Atlantic got into the cold northwest flow on the left side of the storm and the cooling at low levels increased static stability, hence momentum transport to the ground was decreased and surface winds were weaker than one would have expected given the intense pressure gradient that verified over DC metro and the Mid Atlantic. Sandy actually produced an epic SNOW dump in Western MD, several feet! It was a very different story in the warm sector of transitioning Sandy where wind speeds verified at hurricane force. DC was in the right front quadrant of Hazel.

A Hazel type storm today would be the worst disaster to date ever to hit the DC power grid, by far because we're much more built out today than we were in 1954.
Quoting 305. LargoFl:




With that set up it would run up the FL East Coast. Looks like a Blocking low out in the Atlantic with a ridge in between then a trough over the Mississippi Valley. Looks like a tricky forecast. Navgem and Euro are much further west compared to the rest of the models. Reminds of Sandy back in 2012 when the GFS kept saying out to sea it was the Euro that showed the hook back west. Not saying 97L will do that nut just trying to give the comparison that the GFS does tend to have a bias with these systems wanting to send them all out sea.

we may see a SPECIAL Tropical weather out look soon if the trends keep going on 97L the NHC may even upgrade this at 5pm or 11pm
Quoting 316. CybrTeddy:

Pretty dramatic discrepancy between the ECMWF and GFS in terms of the system's location in 10 days.

12z GFS at 240 hours.


12z ECMWF at 240 hours.



Notice the block at day 10 with a small ridge in the middle. Should see a NNW or NW motion after that. Again long ways out and a forecast that is very tricky.
Quoting 308. lobdelse81:

What is the likelihood that the US ends its major hurricane drought this year?


Roughly 11.876295%. Hope that helps.
Quoting 320. thetwilightzone:

we may see a SPECIAL Tropical weather out look soon if the trends keep going on 97L the NHC may even upgrade this at 5pm or 11pm

Why they will do that?
Quoting 265. IDTH:


I'm hoping this is not Hazel 2.0. The last thing NC needs is more rainfall when the ground is extremely saturated from what was left from Julia.


Born in Southport. Raised at Holden Beach. My mom has some stories to tell about Hazel.
ok all book it this is at lest a TD or TS right now

Quoting 278. Patrap:

I'm kinda parcel to the quint scale myself.

Just don't wanna see a Quint5 though.









What is the Quint scale? Just humorously curious
Quoting 302. ackee:

well 97L as strong vorticity at all levels pressure 1008mb it looks like a TD recon tommrow be interesting

I agree with that, I expect to see TD14 by at least the 5pm advisory
328. ackee
Quoting 325. thetwilightzone:

ok all book it this is at lest a TD or TS right now

agree
Quoting 306. hydrus:

One heck of a storm.



She was an Oct storm also. Hit SENC/NESC on oct 15th. Im trying to dig around to see if i can tell what some of the upper dynamics were that week in 1954.
Quoting 322. GatorWX:



Roughly 11.876295%. Hope that helps.


Thanks, I'm sure you nailed it!
Nullschool showing 97L with multiple vortices. A massive improvement from a few days ago with a tighter over all circulation though. Things should get very interesting 50W and beyond.


Also looks like it is starting to go for a northern trend.

Quoting 325. thetwilightzone:

ok all book it this is at lest a TD or TS right now


12 hrs from now taz if it maintains and improves even more it will be a go
97L relocating further N


satellite from PAGASA on Typhoon Helen (MEGI)
Quoting 283. luvtogolf:



Didn't the GFS out perform with Hermine?

No, the GFS was not developing Hermine for the longest time
Quoting 297. weathermanwannabe:

Looks to me like the lower level swirl we were seeing earlier around 9N has slipped under the convective burst now at at 49W-10N:







I think its a little north from that, about around 11N
97L is going too be one big storm wow 97L is vary vary large
Agree with some people, we might have a tropical depression at 5, looking pretty organized right now... I can't believe I'm saying this but the HWRF might actually be right about its intensity. If this trend continues we'll likely see a storm by tomorrow and than who knows what from there.
Quoting 338. masiello3:

Agree with some people, we might have a tropical depression at 5, looking pretty organized right now... I can't believe I'm saying this but the HWRF might actually be right about its intensity. If this trend continues we'll likely see a storm by tomorrow and than who knows what from there.


not sure we will see a TD at 5 but if this keeps going am sure we will have one by 11pm
Gonna defer to NHC at this point and certainly when recon gets out there tomorrow as to designation unless the presentation really improves overnight and they decide to make the call overnight. Very hard to tell (for me anyway) at the moment whether the perceived northern shift might be a function of the South-Westerly shear band that is blowing cloud tops off to the North at the moment or improved outflow in that Quad. Seems to me that the eventual COC is still moving to the West at present and that there is some more shear the invest is headed into in the short-term.

Recon tomorrow will answer most of these questions.  Either way, and unless the coc gets tangled up with South America in the medium term, this looks to be a potentially dangerous storm downstream  Once it gets designated, the Blog will hit light speed so at that point, all folks in the Caribbean should heed the NHC cones and Dr. Master's posts as to what impacts to expect at your particular location/island.


 


Looking for archives of weather patterns 1954, Oct....if anyone has suggestions
Quoting 329. K8eCane:




She was an Oct storm also. Hit SENC/NESC on oct 15th. Im trying to dig around to see if i can tell what some of the upper dynamics were that week in 1954.
Excerpt from the Washington Post...



Hurricane Hazel on the morning of October 15th, 1954 as it crossed the Carolina Coastline. (National Weather Service)
Hazels official 98 mph wind gust at 5:05 p.m. on Oct. 15, 1954 at National Airport, is still the highest ever recorded for Washington, D.C. Sustained winds were recorded at 78 mph (Category 1).

The storm was the fourth major hurricane of the 1954 hurricane season. It formed on October 5th near the island of Granada in the southern Caribbean, left more than a thousand dead (mostly in Haiti) and caused over $3 billion (in 2012 dollars) in damages from the Caribbean to Canada. Hazel was originally expected to take on a more northeasterly track and stay offshore, but instead raced northward at speeds up to 60 mph. It spanned the distance from the Carolina coastline to Ontario in just 12 hours.

At the time, the Raleigh, N.C., weather office stated that as a result of Hazel,Call traces of civilization on the immediate waterfront between the state line and Cape Fear were practically annihilated.

Upon reaching the vicinity of New York State, a weakening Hazel interacted with a potent cold front approaching from the west and was suddenly transformed into a ferocious, extratropical, mid-latitude storm. This, on the same day (October 15th) that it had wreaked havoc in the Carolinas, Virginia, D.C and Pennsylvania as a major hurricane.
You're all wrong. And you'll all be wrong on the one next week :):)

I'm taking my nap now.
346. joHS
Dvorak Fixes Storm History ATCF History
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20160926 1745 10.2 48.3 T1.0/1.0 97L 97L


No Microwave Fixes for 97L 2016 Archive

Bulletin Archive
TXNT23 KNES 261807
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 26/1745Z

C. 10.2N

D. 48.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
347. joHS
AL, 97, 2016092612, , BEST, 0, 95N, 463W, 25, 1010,
AL, 97, 2016092618, , BEST, 0, 99N, 486W, 25, 1008,
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 1h
EURO run ends with #Matthew just NE of Cuba moving NNW with a ridge to the north and incoming trough to the west. Lots of players on field
Quoting 343. K8eCane:

Looking for archives of weather patterns 1954, Oct....if anyone has suggestions


There was a piece on weather.gov/ilm about it, and if you wanna check out my blog, I did an entry on the anniversary. Actually, I used the NWS site as a source so the link on my blog is probably still good.
Quoting 344. hydrus:

Excerpt from the Washington Post...



Hurricane Hazel on the morning of October 15th, 1954 as it crossed the Carolina Coastline. (National Weather Service)
Hazel’s official 98 mph wind gust at 5:05 p.m. on Oct. 15, 1954 at National Airport, is still the highest ever recorded for Washington, D.C. Sustained winds were recorded at 78 mph (Category 1).

The storm was the fourth major hurricane of the 1954 hurricane season. It formed on October 5th near the island of Granada in the southern Caribbean, left more than a thousand dead (mostly in Haiti) and caused over $3 billion (in 2012 dollars) in damages from the Caribbean to Canada. Hazel was originally expected to take on a more northeasterly track and stay offshore, but instead raced northward at speeds up to 60 mph. It spanned the distance from the Carolina coastline to Ontario in just 12 hours.

At the time, the Raleigh, N.C., weather office stated that as a result of Hazel, “all traces of civilization on the immediate waterfront between the state line and Cape Fear were practically annihilated.”

Upon reaching the vicinity of New York State, a weakening Hazel interacted with a potent cold front approaching from the west and was suddenly transformed into a ferocious, extratropical, mid-latitude storm. This, on the same day (October 15th) that it had wreaked havoc in the Carolinas, Virginia, D.C and Pennsylvania as a major hurricane.



What? 60 mph forward speed? Unbelievable. $th major of that year. No comparison there.
.
Quoting 273. luvtogolf:



Once crosses Eastern Cuba and the other the DR. That's not that far off. What is far off is timing. Either one is not a threat to FL.


huh? 10 days out bro...on an invest...caution you to relax on wish 'either one not a threat to FL'...enjoy the links!
355. joHS
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.....

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A 250/500 HPA TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN CUBA. AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BUILDS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN. LATER ON TUESDAY
IT MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS IS TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY THIS
WILL INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA TO THE
NORTH. ACROSS CUBA THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASED LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS EAST OVER THE
ISLAND.

A TUTT TO THE EAST ORIGINATES ON A CLOSED LOW OVER PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES. THE LOW EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AT 250 HPA BUILDING CELL
OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST...ORIGINATING ON A
CLOSED HIGH NEAR 15N 40W. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN THE TUTT IS TO GRADUALLY YIELD
TO THIS AXIS. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
TUTT WILL TO PULL AND WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARS TO THE
NORTH. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE TUTT WILL VENT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS HISPANIOLA... FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BUT AS THE TUTT WEAKENS THE DAILY MAXIMA WILL
PEAK AT 15MM. OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
NET...THE TUTT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY THIS WILL DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PANAMA-COSTA RICA TO WESTERN/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN THIS AREA
INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS IS TO ALSO DECREASE...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
TYPE
57W 59W 62W 64W DISSIPATES
TUTT INDUCED
67W 70W 74W 78W 81W 84W 86W 88W
TW
85W 87W 90W 92W 94W 97W 99W 101W
EW
95W 97W 99W 101W 103W 105W 107W 109W
EW

THE NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS
BETWEEN 50W-40W...EXPECTING IT TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLES...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM
AND MAXIMA OF 125-150MM. AS IT SLOWLY PULLS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS COULD RESULT IN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
250MM. ON THE LEEWARD ISLES AND OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA EXPECTING
IT TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. THIS...HOWEVER...COULD INCREASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA
IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST.

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUTT SUSTAINS AN INDUCED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WITH AXIS ALONG 57W. IN POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE
LEEWARD ISLES WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY IT MOVES
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO WHERE IT WILL SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS...THE INDUCED TROUGH IS TO
THEN DISSIPATE.
Quoting 350. K8eCane:




What? 60 mph forward speed? Unbelievable. $th major of that year. No comparison there.
I try to imagine what the satellite image would have looked like...
358. joHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
235 PM AST MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Gentle to moderate trade winds will bring a band of
showers across the area this afternoon and tonight. A weak wave
will bring increasing showers on Tuesday. On Wednesday the
approach of a developing low will cause drying. The low...likely
becoming a tropical storm...is still forecast to pass 300-350
miles south of Puerto Rico`s south coast on Thursday, turn north
on Friday and cross the Dominican Republic on Sunday
night...bringing rain and windy conditions to Puerto Rico and the
U.S Virgin Islands during much of this period. Models have changed
each run so far, so the forecast is offered with only moderate
confidence contingent on the actual formation and trajectory of
the low which was 950 miles east southeast of the Windward Islands
at 26/15Z.

At upper levels...A weak low over Puerto Rico this morning will
retreat to the northwest as high pressure takes its place on
Thursday and Friday. An upper level low associated with a tropical
cyclone, will pass south of the area Thursday and Thursday night.
On Friday night the low is expected to turn north and cross the
Dominican Republic Sunday night with high pressure over the local
area just to the east.

At mid levels...High pressure extends from the Central Atlantic at
20 degrees north latitude across the Windward Passage. It shifts
to the Central Atlantic Tuesday through Thursday as a tropical
cyclone makes its way through the southern Caribbean south of the
local area. The cyclone crosses through the southeastern
Caribbean and north across the Dominican Republic on Sunday
according to most models and then toward Bermuda.
Quoting 313. Patrap:


At 1800 UTC, 26 September 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 9.9°N and 48.6°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 22 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.






Quoting 354. Climate175:




May the trough do its duty and turn future Matthew away from CONUS. But this bowling ball wants to hit some pin-targets. It potentially looks bad for Hispaniola/Bahamas/Bermuda as of now.
The IR shot has now morphed into an angry Cat ready to pounce with the front claws out; someone woke him up from the deep nap earlier today..................





Euro vs GFS: 5 day outlook.
The last few frames on visible looks like there could be west wind with convection building on top of the circulation. This is getting very very close to being a TD.
Quoting 350. K8eCane:




What? 60 mph forward speed? Unbelievable. $th major of that year. No comparison there.


Not at landfall, though it would race with that speed as it became extratropical. It traveled at 50 km/hr at landfall, about 30 mph, but took no time getting to the DC area and later Toronto.
Quoting 350. K8eCane:




What? 60 mph forward speed? Unbelievable. $th major of that year. No comparison there.
I posted weather maps for Hazel at comment #344...
Quoting 356. hydrus:

I try to imagine what the satellite image would have looked like...


I don't even think any radar exists of it either. I've seen radar from landfalling hurricanes around the same time frame (Connie for example). There's a boatload of storms I'd like to have seen from space prior to satellites.
Center at 10.2n 50.0w
Jaws 1975 - Robert Shaw great performance as Quint.

Back home we got a taxidermy man. He gonna have a heart attack when he see what I brung him.


Quoting 326. georgevandenberghe:



What is the Quint scale? Just humorously curious
Quoting 325. thetwilightzone:

ok all book it this is at lest a TD or TS right now




The probability that this scary beast has an attitude problem...going with 95%.
Megi last 24 hrs
Quoting 300. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Hazel has been much studied; even as a budding amateur meteorologist, I recall it was one of the centerpiece storms discussed in my coveted hurricane library, back in the day. That said, given the track, I find it hard to believe that Battery Park NY had a 113 mph gust. Don't believe it...oh, it's from a wiki...
10.3N, 48.9W or around that? IDK, wild guess.

Quoting 362. weathermanwannabe:

The IR shot has now morphed into an angry Cat ready to pounce with the front claws out; someone woke him up from the deep nap earlier today..................








That is hilarious!!! Thanks for pointing that out!
Today's Greenhouse Gas Levels Could Lead to 7C of warming over next 1,000 years: Link
Intensity models may be overdoing it. Conditions imo shouldn't allow future Matthew to get much stronger than a cat1/2 in the eastern and central Caribbean. Trade winds should help modify the threat. Matthew would have to slip south of Haiti/DR to fully feed off the conditions necessary to bring Matthew to a monster major. By 11pm, NHC will likely classify as TD and we'll have a better understanding of possible path.
I think the NHC will probably wait for recon data to designate 97L a tropical depression. However, if ASCAT gets a good view of the circulation and finds it to be well-defined, they could call it early in that case. Regardless I think it is getting close and we should have TD 14 by tomorrow afternoon when recon investigates.
Quoting 322. GatorWX:



Roughly 11.876295%. Hope that helps.

You blog during daylight hours? ;-)
Quoting 335. Icybubba:


No, the GFS was not developing Hermine for the longest time


Having trouble embedding YT videos, but as far as Hermine goes, the GFS is Oregon and the Euro is Oregon State [Link]
Quoting 350. K8eCane:




What? 60 mph forward speed? Unbelievable. $th major of that year. No comparison there.
and it still dumped 309 mm of rain on Toronto
Quoting 374. HTownJitters:



That is hilarious!!! Thanks for pointing that out!


He is also looking for a name; Cat 3 "a/k/a" Matthew........................................... .......Lol.
Here is the 12z Euro Ensemble, still weighted to the west. Lots of Gulf solutions.

Sorry for the double-post; teaching a class tonight at FSU and headed out early. Will see how 97L looks in the overnight hours....................D-max might go a long way towards helping lowering pressures just in time for when recon gets out there tomorrow to give us a good center-fix to feed into the models for the PM runs tomorrow. See Yall in the am.
This is some incredible structure for just an invest. Reminiscient of Tomas in 2010. A note about Tomas, that system also took a north turn in the Caribbean towards Haiti.



97L won't go further W than that.
New frames confirm that a coc could be developing near 11-12N
My local NBC TV met tweeted images for local low pressure system snipped from tropicaltidbits.com.

Levi, if you're out there.... When the TV guys are posting your stuff, instead of posting the model technology they have access to, you know it's worth $$. Paywall, stat. Yes, I know this is an unpopular opinion.

Link

CMC ensembles are kind of similar to the Euro's ensembles.
390. A4Guy
Quoting 385. CaribBoy:



97L won't go further W than that.


That is not what that means. The shaded area is the "potential formation area" - so it means NHC believes it will develop before it gets to that point (end of the shading). Recall that with 99L, the shading kept moving West, as they believed it still had development potential.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
235 PM AST MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Gentle to moderate trade winds will bring a band of
showers across the area this afternoon and tonight. A weak wave
will bring increasing showers on Tuesday. On Wednesday the
approach of a developing low will cause drying. The low...likely
becoming a tropical storm...is still forecast to pass 300-350
miles south of Puerto Rico`s south coast on Thursday, turn north
on Friday and cross the Dominican Republic on Sunday
night...bringing rain and windy conditions to Puerto Rico and the
U.S Virgin Islands during much of this period. Models have changed
each run so far, so the forecast is offered with only moderate
confidence contingent on the actual formation and trajectory of
the low
which was 950 miles east southeast of the Windward Islands
at 26/15Z.


Expect more E shifts
Quoting 362. weathermanwannabe:

The IR shot has now morphed into an angry Cat ready to pounce with the front claws out; someone woke him up from the deep nap earlier today..................








I was thinking a capuchin monkey myself




Growing in numbers
Growing in speed
Can't fight the future
Can't fight what I see

People they come together
People they fall apart
No one can stop us now
'cause we are all made of stars
Looks like a TD just north of 10n.
Euro ensembles even farther west...... that cut off low is playing mind games with us. Add the JMA to the euro ensembles and the GFDL and UKMET for farthest west tracks. Note how the GFS takes the system from due west to due north.
For those understanding french. Heavy weather expected in Martinique.

Link
Quoting 390. A4Guy:



That is not what that means. The shaded area is the "potential formation area" - so it means NHC believes it will develop before it gets to that point (end of the shading). Recall that with 99L, the shading kept moving West, as they believed it still had development potential.


Spot on chap.
Quoting 350. K8eCane:




What? 60 mph forward speed? Unbelievable. $th major of that year. No comparison there.


The 1938 New England Hurricane, nicknamed the "Long Island Express" moved this fast also. Strong deep troughs to the west create the fast steering necessary for these storm translation speeds and also make the winds in the right front quadrant stronger because large scale translation rate (wind flow) is added to the perturbation wind from the storm. This is how you get intense TC effects well inland or in regions surrounded by lots of cold
water (as New England is {uuhh used to be} ). The storm has to be moving fast enough not to have much time
to weaken. With Hazel baroclinic (frontal with horizontal temperature gradient) effects added to the intensity from Central PA North and no this is not unprecedented and is a part of the climatology of mid Autumn tropical cyclones
Quoting 388. MonsterTrough:

My local NBC TV met tweeted images for local low pressure system snipped from tropicaltidbits.com.

Levi, if you're out there.... When the TV guys are posting your stuff, instead of posting the model technology they have access to, you know it's worth $$. Paywall, stat. Yes, I know this is an unpopular opinion.

Link




Due to the nature of the message, why don't you directly contact Levi on his site?
12z JMA
ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 160926180000
2016092618
9.8 311.4
12.3 303.5
100
9.3 314.0
262100
1609262100
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 262100
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.2N 46.0W TO 11.9N 53.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 09.3N 46.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PRODUCED BY THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCTIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 272100Z.//
9716092400 75N 295W 20
9716092406 75N 306W 20
9716092412 75N 316W 20
9716092418 75N 328W 25
9716092500 75N 343W 20
9716092506 76N 360W 20
9716092512 78N 377W 20
9716092518 81N 394W 25
9716092600 86N 415W 25
9716092606 90N 438W 25
9716092612 95N 463W 25
9716092618 99N 486W 25
Quoting 330. georgevandenberghe:



Thanks, I'm sure you nailed it!


;) Nailed it!
Quoting 389. Climate175:

CMC ensembles are kind of similar to the Euro's ensembles.
It will be amazing to me if the 18z GFS shifts to come in line with the ECMWF and CMC ensembles.
Updated: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 21:02:35 GMT
Atlantic Basin

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 97L
Valid: Mon 26 Sep 2016 21:00Z
ECMWF EPS 12z is quite interesting as it sustains a blocking ridge over eastern Canada, forcing 97L to track through the Caribbean.
Just a note, but the 12z Euro didn't show 97L being at 1008 mb or lower until at least Wednesday. With it being 1008 mb now, it looks to be slightly stronger than what the Euro is predicting and could mean it tracks further north and away from the SA coast.
The disagreement between the GFS and the ECMWF on the recurve scenario is even evident on their respective ensemble members. The majority of the GFS ensembles favor a recurve, whereas the majority of the ECMWF ensembles show further west.
Quoting 406. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It will be amazing to me if the 18z GFS shifts to come in line with the ECMWF and CMC ensembles.
Wondering if we will see a shift, we'll find out soon.
Quoting 396. CaribBoy:

For those understanding french. Heavy weather expected in Martinique.

Link
Bonjour Monsieur, comment allez-vous? Took two years of it in high school.
Quoting 410. CybrTeddy:

The disagreement between the GFS and the ECMWF on the recurve scenario is even evident on their respective ensemble members. The majority of the GFS ensembles favor a recurve, whereas the majority of the ECMWF ensembles show further west.


it's the trailing weakness. on the GFS and even Euro you see a wall of blue off the east coast. Euro ensembles have white to pink there meaning the weakness moves out quicker allowing the ridge to build back in. That cutoff low is driving all of us nuts.....
Hello, all.

Still a hunch...

Link

Still not sure how to presently post yt vids.


Invest 97 continues to organise in the Atlantic late this afternoon.
A Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the area tomorrow afternoon.


I would not be surprised if the 8pm TWO says that 99L "Continues to show signs of organization and appears as if a tropical depression could be forming. If this trend continues, then advisories may be initiated later tonight." Or something to that effect. And an increase in odds to 90%.
T.C.F.A
97L/INV/XX/CX
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 17m
Once again, more than half of the 12Z EURO ensemble members are west of the operational model that ran earlier. #disagreement
Quoting 364. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The last few frames on visible looks like there could be a west wind with convection building on top of the circulation. This is getting very very close to being a TD.
Quoting 419. Climate175:

HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 17m
Once again, more than half of the 12Z EURO ensemble members are west of the operational model that ran earlier. #disagreement


Recon will give us better data tomorrow for sure.
Quoting 411. Climate175:

Wondering if we will see a shift, we'll find out soon.
Going to have some dinner. Curry Goat is on the menu. :D
Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 33m
EPS members threatening. Op ECMWF on east side of envelope. 2 clusters one into Gulf one Florida/East Coast. Plot thickens.
Quoting 410. CybrTeddy:

The disagreement between the GFS and the ECMWF on the recurve scenario is even evident on their respective ensemble members. The majority of the GFS ensembles favor a recurve, whereas the majority of the ECMWF ensembles show further west.


It's normal to see the operationals disagree sometimes but it does shock me that there is such a spread in the ensembles and two different setups for steering the storm.
Boomers heading south with outflow boundaries moving into Lake Pontchartrain.


MNF kickoff @ the Superdome is 7:30 pm CDT.

Quoting 414. GatorWX:

Hello, all.

Still a hunch...



Still not sure how to presently post yt vids.

Having the same problem, none of my old embed code generators work. Does anybody here know how? Thanks.
Quoting 205. pocoehonda:

Just my luck.. Leaving on a 7 day cruise from Port Canaveral to St Thomas. St Martin oct 2nd.. Things are not looking to good right now. Maybe they change itinerary when this happens?? Not sure. Anyone?


Don't forget to bring along a really good cam!
GFS initialized
GFS Time, let's see.
If GFS were to shift West we would have a Cat 5 likely in the central and moving into the western Caribbean. Tracks like Lili, Ivan, Dennis, and Wilma then come to mind.

But the GFS has been insistent so this system could very well stay east of the Western Caribbean. Too early to tell what will happen.
Quoting 426. pingon:


Having the same problem, none of my old embedded code generators work. Does anybody here know how? Thanks.


< embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/Vv6Q_SW71zM?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="700" height="325" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true">


get the bolded part of the code from your video and add it there
careful not to remove or overwrite anything
also I made a space at less than and greater than characters at the beginning and end to post the code you would have to delete that space for it too work
its how I do it anyway
Quoting 419. Climate175:

HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 17m
Once again, more than half of the 12Z EURO ensemble members are west of the operational model that ran earlier. #disagreement


Quoting 357. Patrap:





Reminds me of a giant snow blower. 97L is dispensing with the dry air and adding a plume of moisture to the atmosphere.
Link

OT:

Red tides cause massive fish kills all along Southwest Florida

Link
Quoting 431. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



< embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/Vv6Q_SW71zM?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="700" height="325" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true">


get the bolded part of the code from your video and add it there
careful not to remove or overwrite anything
also I made a space at less than and greater than characters at the beginning and end to post the code you would have to delete that space for it too work
its how I do it anyway

Thanks Keep, appreciate it!
Quoting 431. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



< embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/Vv6Q_SW71zM?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="700" height="325" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true">


get the bolded part of the code from your video and add it there
careful not to remove or overwrite anything
also I made a space at less than and greater than characters at the beginning and end to post the code you would have to delete that space for it too work
its how I do it anyway


Thanks Keep
Quoting 435. MontanaZephyr:

OT:

Red tides cause massive fish kills all along Southwest Florida

Link
I was at St Pete Beach this weekend. The water is not usable. Its very dirty and lots of dead fish. Im sure this has something to do with the nearly 200 million gallons of sewage released from Colin and Hermine. They refuse to invest or make the developers here pay to fix the sewers yet keep inviting tourist to come swim in the rancid water.
Quoting 434. QueensWreath:




Reminds me of a giant snow blower. 97L is dispensing with the dry air and annd a plume of moisture to the atmosphere.
" >"http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=102064 422 41806528&set=a.1106974246246.2015014.158350772 0&ty pe=3">




Looking at the image I wonder, whats gonna happen with that ULL over North FL as the front comes down? If it moves south and east could it be a factor to draw 97L up sooner and further east, say over PR?

Or depending on the time and placement is it possible the west side of that ULL, if its far enough east of the storm, could the northerly flow actually push/keep 97L further south? Any thoughts, Pat, Gro, beell? Anyone?
Quoting 436. luvtogolf:

.......


Sorry to seem shrewd, but normally I am not that way. But what does this have to do with the topic? Please keep political views/comments off this blog. There are political blog spots for just that. This is a weather blog. Thank you very much.

But you are right, it's a big night indeed. A typhoon is approaching Taiwan. A developing TC is encroaching on the Caribbean, with the potential to become a monster, that may very well impact many lives.
gator ping the space is only at the beginning so only have too delete their and overlay new vid code and it should work

this run of the GFS has the low forming off of North Carolina faster like the 0z of sunday which brought the storm into western Cuba. I don't know if that shows something but just an observation.
Quoting 440. CW7859:



Looking at the image I wonder, whats gonna happen with that ULL over North FL as the front comes down? If it moves south and east could it be a factor to draw 97L up sooner and further east, say over PR?

Or depending on the time and placement is it possible the west side of that ULL, if its far enough east of the storm, could the northerly flow actually push/keep 97L further south? Any thoughts, Pat, Gro, beell? Anyone?


I find that harsh turn to be suspect. 97L would need to be further North and or fairly strong AND that would need to be one massive Low off the Mid Atlantic coast to exert that much pull from that distance. But not impossible that is for sure.
Side to side, 12z GFS ensemble and 12z Euro ensemble MSLP, normalized anomily @ 24o hrs.

GFS



Euro



Good perspective of the model disagreement.
Inbound...

Quoting 445. GatorWX:

Side to side, 12z GFS ensemble and 12z Euro ensemble MSLP, normalized anomily @ 24o hrs.

GFS



Euro



Good perspective of the model disagreement.


Absolutely. Not sure which one is better with a system that is not closed off at this point. Only time will tell.
Quoting 422. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Going to have some dinner. Curry Goat is on the menu. :D


Nah, MJ is the goat.
Don't see much of a westerner shift this run, maybe even more east than last.
Quoting 451. masiello3:

Don't see much of a westerner shift this run, maybe even more east than last.


It's 96 ours out, chill lol
Quoting 439. intampa:

I was at St Pete Beach this weekend. The water is not usable. Its very dirty and lots of dead fish. Im sure this has something to do with the nearly 200 million gallons of sewage released from Colin and Hermine. They refuse to invest or make the developers here pay to fix the sewers yet keep inviting tourist to come swim in the rancid water.
'Brown Tide'
Quoting 453. Hurricanes101:



It's 96 ours out, chill lol
I'm not freaking lol, trying to predict something right. Not very good at that at the moment, always like to see why I'm either right or wrong so in the future i can make more accurate predictions.
Quoting 451. masiello3:

Don't see much of a westerner shift this run, maybe even more east than last.


How can you tell? It's still moving west at 102 hrs.
Quoting 450. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nah, MJ is the goat.
LOL, I agree with that, but Steph is very good too! A sharp shooter and very versatile.
Quoting 456. Bucsboltsfan:



How can you tell? It's still moving west at 102 hrs.
based on the cut off low, its stronger on the 18z from the 12, and also the ridge of high pressure became weaker earlier on.
Quoting 451. masiello3:

Don't see much of a westerner shift this run, maybe even more east than last.


Turn hasn't began yet.
Quoting 458. masiello3:

based on the cut off low, its stronger on the 18z from the 12, and always the ridge of high pressure became weaker earlier on.


Actually, it's a tad bit weaker.
Quoting 458. masiello3:

based on the cut off low, its stronger on the 18z from the 12, and also the ridge of high pressure became weaker earlier on.


Then you should have said that as your reasoning.
Starting to turn NW slowly.
Looks like the turn has begun at 114-120 hrs.
There goes that GFS turning this thing north again at hour 114 lol. I can't wait for recon to get better data in to sort this out.


At this point the turn begins, moving NW
Heading almost north at 126 hrs. GFS is pretty locked in on this path.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


You're right later on it becomes weaker, allowing for the ridge of high pressure to the west to build back faster, might have an effect on its track after Haiti/DR on this run.
hey everybody,here in martinique i have a bad feeling on this disturbance i think it will be a hurricane near and over the windward islands and martinique will not be spare from this storm,i fear the worst hoping i am wrong


Hispaniola could get hit pretty hard if the GFS's forecast comes true.
Apparently if I'm reading the pattern correctly on the GFS, the kicker is a piece of vorticity that breaks off the polar low north of Alaska that swings down and rescues the closed upper level low. Why do I have the feeling when that happens is when 97L turns north with it, is it because the trough displaces and erodes the western flank of the Subtropical Ridge? Amazing how minute things in the atmosphere can have large scale synoptic influence. The difference between the GFS and ECMWF is at hour 144 the ULL is absorbed on the GFS, while the ULL is still spinning over the Midwest on the ECMWF. Pretty much the GFS shows a more progressive pattern and the ECMWF shows a more stagnant pattern. Either solution is very much realistic given the time of the year. I would look for the NWS offices in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Midwest states to give us some clues in the upcoming days on this pattern.
18Z has the Lows in north atlantic progressing along much farther than the 12Z

12Z


18Z
I want to thank everyone for the relief support,patience,friendships and for teaching me the best thing here,is the sharing.

It all began ten years ago tonight when wu allowed me to embed this via YouTube here.

It was the night we got our minds and collective voice back after a cala city a year earlier.


Nola Superdome reopening music. U2 Green Day..and more


We play Atlanta tonight here again.

But We already have won as we all talked about how we cheered in that lil FEMA trailer dat night and how far we have come since.

Rebirth revisited.
🌛🌉🌃👍🌍


475. SLU
26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L