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97L Potentially a Dangerous Storm for the Caribbean

By: Jeff Masters 5:38 PM GMT on September 25, 2016

A tropical wave located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa on Sunday afternoon was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. NHC designated this system Invest 97L on Sunday morning. After looking remarkably unimpressive on satellite loops for the previous few days, 97L was turning that situation around on Sunday. The system had a large circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere, with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Some low-level spiral bands were beginning to develop, and upper-level outflow was becoming established to 97L’s north. The storm’s organization was being aided by low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 75%) and warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself vertically aligned, plus 97L’s nearness to the equator. The system was centered near 8°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, reaching a latitude of about 12°N by Tuesday. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 70 - 75%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29°C (84°F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon.

Invest 97L may pass very close to the coast of South America, which would interfere with development. In addition, the southeastern Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is primarily due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones.

Model support for development of 97L continues to remain high. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Sunday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Monday and Wednesday. About 70% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Sunday GFS ensemble showed development into a tropical storm, with 40% predicting a hurricane. The European model ensemble was less aggressive developing the storm, probably because of a predicted track too close to the coast of South America—about 40% of its 50 ensemble members predicted a tropical storm in the Caribbean, with 30% predicting a hurricane. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 90%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into the storm on Tuesday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storm names is Matthew.





Figure 2. Forecasts out to ten days from the 00Z Sunday European model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future.

Will 97L threaten the U.S.?
Forecasts of what might happen to 97L beyond five days from now are speculative, but let’s go ahead and speculate. A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L more to the northwest by the weekend, according to a majority of the Sunday morning runs of the models. In this scenario, Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida would be at greatest risk for a strike by 97L. According to the Sunday morning Extended Forecast Discussion from the NWS (thanks to WU member nrtiwlnvragn for posting this link), the models are in substantial disagreement on the evolution of this upper-level low, with the GFS model being judged to have the best handle on it. If this analysis is correct, the long-range forecasts from the GFS model may be better than the European model’s. However, you can throw all these forecasts out the window if 97L ends up consolidating its center at a latitude significantly different from what these models are expecting, or on a day different from what is expected. Making an accurate long-range track forecast from a tropical wave in the process of transitioning into a tropical depression is notoriously difficult.

Lisa and Karl die
Tropical Storm Karl became post-tropical without ever reaching hurricane strength, and was speeding to the northeast out to sea at 49 mph on Sunday morning. Karl brushed Bermuda on Saturday, bringing rains of about 4” to the airport, but no tropical storm-force winds. Tropical Storm Lisa is also no more, done in by high wind shear and dry air on Saturday night.

Invest 94E off the Pacific coast of Mexico may develop
In the Eastern Pacific, satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that an area of low pressure located about 825 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula on Sunday morning (Invest 94E) was well-organized with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—predicted in their 00Z Sunday runs that 94E would develop into a tropical storm or tropical depression by Tuesday. The future track of the storm was uncertain; the European and UKMET models predicted that 94E would remain offshore of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula though the next five days, while the GFS model showed landfall in the central Baja Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 90%. Update: NHC upgraded 94E to Tropical Depression 18E at 2:00 pm EDT Sunday.

Typhoon Megi takes aim at Taiwan
Category 2 Typhoon Megi continues to intensify as it heads west-northwest at 12 mph towards Taiwan. Megi should reach Taiwan by late Tuesday local time. With unusually warm sea-surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84-86°F), a moist atmosphere, and low wind shear of 5 - 15 knots expected along Megi’s path over the next couple of days, Megi should continue to strengthen. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects that Megi will approach Taiwan as a Category 3 typhoon, with peak winds of 125 mph. Earlier in September, Super Typhoon Meranti passed just to Taiwan's southwest, killing two and leaving nearly a million without power. Also, Typhoon Malakas passed just to Taiwan's northeast a few days later, and Super Typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan on July 7 as a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 150 mph. Taiwan averages 3 to 4 typhoon strikes per year, according to the Central Weather Bureau. On its predicted course, Megi would make a second landfall along the coast of southeast China, not far south of where Meranti claimed at least 29 lives and caused at least $2.6 billion in damage.

NOAA/RAMMB has a nice hi-resolution animation of Megi over the past day.

We’ll be back with our next update on Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. ackee
The big question for 97L what will be what happen when the system reaches 70 west in the central carribbean
Quoting 500. kmanislander:






It's beginning to get a large, albeit weak, area of vorticity.
Looking at the fine mesh grid to the right, HWRF thinks it will be a closed low at noon on Tuesday.(Not sure how it got to 11N)
What a time for my membership to expire, even though my acct. info said I was good through November.

Quoting 501. ackee:

The big question for 97L what will be what happen when the system reaches 70 west in the central carribbean


The big question now is why is it that the models see a 90 degree right turn below Haiti today when they didn't see that yesterday looking out in time . If 97L gets to 70W and is still below 15 then all bets are off IMO.
Quoting 502. tigerdeF:



It's beginning to get a large, albeit weak, area of vorticity.


But more importantly coming together closer to 10N. Avoiding the coast of SA will be key to the future of this system.
Are these intensity guidance a joke for Karl lmao.
A very fickle pattern looks to be setting up over the CONUS, one that will feature closed lows, cut-off lows, troughing in the Northeast, Ridging developing over the Pacific Northwest, roughing over the Gulf of Alaska, and a shortwave trough moving through the Northern Plains. A nice looking closed low over the Panhandle of Florida that is enhancing our thunderstorms this evening along the west coast of Florida.

Quoting 507. masiello3:

Our these intensity guidance a joke for Karl lmao.
OCD5 not surprised.
Quoting 505. kmanislander:



The big question now is why is it that the models see a 90 degree right turn below Haiti today when they didn't see that yesterday looking out in time . If 97L gets to 70W and is still below 15 then all bets are off IMO.


Very true, this is just a cycle of models from the last 24 hours showing that sharp north turn if it trends that way the next 48-72 hours then there is something to it.
Back tomorrow. Have a nice evening.
Quoting 466. hydrus:




Yipes! That's scary!
Quoting 495. opal92nwf:

Tried posting this twice earlier but the blog may have eaten it up. Here's a couple very low riding Cape Verde storms in history. (links are there if the pictures don't post)

1877 hurricane

Felix 2007

I posted the Hurricane 4 track yesterday. There will be 2 chances for 97L to turn north, the first chance will be in response to the shortwave moving past North Dakota and will dive south and cut off a low pressure between the Tennessee River Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The low will move slowly towards the north, but in its wake a weakness between the Continental Ridge and Subtropical Ridge will be left behind, how deep is that weakness remains to be seen, but if it is not deep enough to start the north movement south of Hispaniola, then a west-northwest movement will commence in response to the 2nd more long wave trough that will push the Continental Ridge east towards the Northeast, once that trough gets closer to interact with 97L then it will pull it north, by that time it may be south or moving right over Jamaica. That would put the GOM in play. Of course the system could remain an open wave through its trek across the southern Caribbean and never develop at all crashing into the north coast of South America or continuing west into Central America.
Maybe down the road, this could be the one that ends South Florida's hurricane drought. Still too early to tell though.
Quoting 512. birdsrock2016:



Yipes! That's scary!

I am sure this will change
Bye Bye Invest 97L (at least to PR)
517. beell
Quoting 497. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That upper-level forecast is shear perfection. The ceiling looks high with this one.


Have not seen a (modeled) pinwheel like this the the ATL basin in a while-certainly not this year.



Quoting 515. juracanpr1:


I am sure this will change

Let's hope so.
Quoting 504. GeoffreyWPB:

What a time for my membership to expire, even though my acct. info said I was good through November.


Getting slowly better organised
Lets see what the models say tomorrow evening, but in my opinion this invest will not develop before entering the Caribbean
Quoting 514. birdsrock2016:

Maybe down the road, this could be the one that ends South Florida's hurricane drought. Still too early to tell though.



FL was all ready hit by a hurricane so the drought has ended i dont think it matter where the storm hit NW FL or S FL has long has a storm hits FL the hurricane drought has ended
Quoting 518. birdsrock2016:


Let's hope so.

Because I live in South Florida.
The hurricane strengthened slightly further to a peak intensity of 80 mph (130 km/h) by 00:00 UTC on September 2.[26] At around 05:30 UTC (1:30 a.m. EDT) that day, Hermine made landfall just east of St. Marks, Florida at peak intensity, with a minimum pressure of 982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg).[27] Hermine became the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Wilma on October 24, 2005
I've been trying to find some analogs for 97L based on what is modeled. So far, this is the closest one I can find, and it's a doozy.



1954, Hurricane Hazel.
Quoting 505. kmanislander:



The big question now is why is it that the models see a 90 degree right turn below Haiti today when they didn't see that yesterday looking out in time . If 97L gets to 70W and is still below 15 then all bets are off IMO.

Why do the first models show a biggie shoved down our throats here on the Gulf Coast, then 1, 2 and 3 days later, the models make a big shift in direction and we're totally out of the equation?
Quoting 521. thetwilightzone:



FL was all ready hit by a hurricane so the drought has ended i dont think it matter where the storm hit NW FL or S FL has long has a storm hits FL the hurricane drought has ended


It's a shorter drive from Miami to Pensacola than it is from Washington to Toronto.

Quoting 524. SavannahStorm:

I've been trying to find some analogs for 97L based on what is modeled. So far, this is the closest one I can find, and it's a doozy.



1954, Hurricane Hazel.


You stop it right there
Quoting 521. thetwilightzone:




FL was all ready hit by a hurricane so the drought has ended i dont think it matter where the storm hit NW FL or S FL has long has a storm hits FL the hurricane drought has ended


he said SOUTH florida
528. beell
Quoting 482. win1gamegiantsplease:



That is perfect for 97L. Hopefully the GFS is drinking your weak coffee..


I will not let you or aqua impinge or attempt to diminish my overpowering masculinity by false insinuations of weak coffee here.
(besides, that hurts my feelings and you should both stop it right now or i will complain to the management)
is that a eye?


Finally it looks like my namesake may be an interesting storm (:
Quoting 521. thetwilightzone:




FL was all ready hit by a hurricane so the drought has ended i dont think it matter where the storm hit NW FL or S FL has long has a storm hits FL the hurricane drought has ended


He meant South Florida, Taz. That part of FL hasn't been hit since Wilma.
Quoting 529. thetwilightzone:

is that a eye?





Still too early for that Taz, LOL=).
Quoting 531. AnthonyJKenn:



He meant South Florida, Taz. That part of FL hasn't been hit since Wilma.


So, can we conclude that South Florida has yet to be hit by a hurricane and that the days are still ticking by(11 years and counting) for South Florida?
It's rather remarkable that South Florida has had not had a Tropical Storm make landfall since 2010, Tropical Storm Bonnie.
Quoting 528. beell:



I will not let you or aqua impinge or attempt to diminish my overpowering masculinity by false insinuations of weak coffee here.
(besides, that hurts my feelings and you should both stop it right now or i will complain to the management)


Maybe switch to decaf?
Quoting 534. ElConando:

It's rather remarkable that South Florida has had not had a Tropical Storm make landfall since 2010, Tropical Storm Bonnie.


True, and the hurricane drought also still continues for South Florida. Thanks for pointing that out, El Conando.
Quoting 523. thetwilightzone:

The hurricane strengthened slightly further to a peak intensity of 80 mph (130 km/h) by 00:00 UTC on September 2.[26] At around 05:30 UTC (1:30 a.m. EDT) that day, Hermine made landfall just east of St. Marks, Florida at peak intensity, with a minimum pressure of 982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg).[27] Hermine became the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Wilma on October 24, 2005


Florida is a large state with many macroclimates
The system was centered near 8°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin.

I thought this was really interesting.
Quoting 538. Noobweatherdude:

The system was centered near 8°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin.

I thought this was really interesting.


Are you noobdave?
Quoting 534. ElConando:

It's rather remarkable that South Florida has had not had a Tropical Storm make landfall since 2010, Tropical Storm Bonnie.


Can thank Hispaniola for that, keeps getting in the way unfortunately for them.


Wonder what this will be ... Cat 1-2 ... should be an exciting week to come
Quoting 541. Melagoo:



Wonder what this will be ... Cat 1-2 ... should be an exciting week to come


Please , don't scare me yet. I live in South Florida.
This reminds me of 2005 - you know something BIG is coming even if you don't know exactly how big or where it will hit.
Quoting 542. birdsrock2016:



Please , don't scare me yet. I live in South Florida.


Be prepared ... looks like something is brewing ...
Quoting 530. opal92nwf:

Finally it looks like my namesake may be an interesting storm (:
You're lucky man, don't think Cameron has ever been used.
Quoting 542. birdsrock2016:



Please , don't scare me yet. I live in South Florida.



am a ghost BOO are you scared am hiding under your bed
Quoting 542. birdsrock2016:



Please , don't scare me yet. I live in South Florida.



am a ghost BOO are you scared am hiding under your bed
Quoting 547. thetwilightzone:




am a ghost BOO are you scared am hiding under your bed


LOL, if you're the hurricane ghost, then yes . Otherwise, I am not scared, LOL=).
Location of 97L in 84HRS on NAM.
Quoting 548. birdsrock2016:



LOL, if you're the hurricane ghost, then yes . Otherwise, I am not scared, LOL=).


yes am the hurricane ghost run
Quoting 550. thetwilightzone:



yes am the hurricane ghost run


I will run away 2 days before your landfall in South Florida, LOL=).
YAY the 00z have started whats see what it has tonight
97L looks to have good outflow.

Quoting 554. Patrap:








OMG!
556. MahFL
Quoting 543. snowboy:

This reminds me of 2005 - you know something BIG is coming even if you don't know exactly how big or where it will hit.


Lol it's nothing like 2005, in 2005 we had hurricane after hurricane hitting the USA.
Quoting 528. beell:


I will not let you or aqua impinge or attempt to diminish my overpowering masculinity by false insinuations of weak coffee here.
(besides, that hurts my feelings and you should both stop it right now or i will complain to the management)


I'm still awake.

Oh Beell! Levi used the phrase "bears watching" in his most recent video- I almost fell off the sofa, laughing so hard- I had to explain the whole play-on-words to hubby-
Quoting 505. kmanislander:



The big question now is why is it that the models see a 90 degree right turn below Haiti today when they didn't see that yesterday looking out in time . If 97L gets to 70W and is still below 15 then all bets are off IMO.


Not to forget to mention to add day before that and day before that and the day before that

Funny enough several days ago GFS did a similar thing with the forecast for 97L then after a few runs it shifted back

As I said I don't buy it

But yeah 15 70 that's target more or less

Quoting 510. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Very true, this is just a cycle of models from the last 24 hours showing that sharp north turn if it trends that way the next 48-72 hours then there is something to it.


I say atleast 72hrs then there may be something
But I have my doubts

Quoting 525. GameDogMom:


Why do the first models show a biggie shoved down our throats here on the Gulf Coast, then 1, 2 and 3 days later, the models make a big shift in direction and we're totally out of the equation?


A good strong few days of consistency then a big shift out of nowhere
Something ain't right and I ain't buyin it

Peak intensity for the system in the 18Z GFS run. Curious what the 00Z run will do.


Faster on development.
Quoting 559. Grothar:


I'd say two days from the windwards
563. SLU
New GFS much stronger on this run. The trend in the models today has been for a more intense system at Windwards landfall

564. SLU
565. 7544
Quoting 563. SLU:

New GFS much stronger on this run. The trend in the models today has been for a more intense system at Windwards landfall




might even get further west this run before the turn watching
Quoting 553. unknowncomic:

97L looks to have good outflow.



Levi says some long range molidels see this or something else on the Caribbean..
Ex- Lisa is definitely determined not to be forgotten so easily... Almost without exception -the Cape Verde systems this year have been rather resilient, vigorous, and robust. 'Lisa is defiant' -Its not going out meteorologically speaking without one final show of strength. (Re-initializing of advisories may be a possibility?)...Currently, the system is putting on an earnest enough fight for re-firing and sustenance of convection- the Azore islands may have to once again be on the look-out.

Meanwhile with far more relevance to the Eastern Caribbean in the more immediate future is 97L which is certainly gradually organizing and increasing in intensity as it draws ever closer to the islands. It should be at tropical depression status by tomorrow mid-morning or early afternoon in accordance with model intensity predictions. Definitely an ominous looking system already IMO. Hoping and praying that its not as powerful as predicted by the HWRF when it crosses the island chain over the Windward islands later this week. Nevertheless, the track and scope of the system always seem to be on point with the HWRF... Time, of course will surely tell.

May God be with us All!
Blessings!

According to NOAA from 1851 -2015 here are the storm totals for SW Florida.Link

Southwest (Cat.1) 16 (2) 8 (3) 7 (4) 4 (5) 1 (all) 36 (Major) 12

Levity:
There has been THREE Cat 5 strikes in 164 years from Texas to Maine and 18 Cat 4.
Quoting 565. 7544:



might even get further west this run before the turn watching
Much stronger system
There is no inconsistency. Before it was even declared an invest, the system was forecast to move almost due west until the eastern caribbean , when an impulse might move it north or northwest. Another analysis depicted another impulse would move the system more northerly into the Gulf if it survived the first one. This has been mentioned many times for the past few days. No model or discussion I know of mentioned the system moving due west until it hit California.
'Matthew' making its move...



Quoting 566. nola70119:


Levi says some long range molidels see this or something else on the Caribbean..


He figured that out,did he??
573. JRRP7
more north than 18z

and stronger
deleted due to bad data
575. IDTH
Quoting 524. SavannahStorm:

I've been trying to find some analogs for 97L based on what is modeled. So far, this is the closest one I can find, and it's a doozy.



1954, Hurricane Hazel.

Infamous.
Models will condense around a major from Haiti/DR and Cuba and a major form Cuba to the Yucatan. We should notice that model consistency has this becoming a major and a land falling one at that. Where is the big what if? Glad the doom models have taken a break, doesn't mean they won't be back. This is a historic possibility path.
577. JRRP7
Quoting 553. unknowncomic:

97L looks to have good outflow.



Seems like 97L took a big jug to the north and also increase in forward speed
579. JRRP7
looks like this time around it gos right over DR
man DR really kills it all most but it starts too make a come back on the over side
Emergence

Out of necessity and need of consistency, I'm split evenly at 50/50 between OTS and a US landfall. I stand by what I said this morning about the models. Not that anyone will listen, because they're truly ignorant. But it's there.

And regardless of US impact, we're gonna get a retired hurricane in the Caribbean capable of killing thousands.
Trough much weaker on this run
585. IDTH
Quoting 579. JRRP7:



Poor DR and Hati. This would be absolutely disastrous if this came true.
Here are some ensembles from gfs







And northwards....


Changed image...took too long to load.
That's the link you gave me not the FIM ;)
590. JRRP7
CMC more west this run
Bermuda may need too keep a eye on this
I'm gaining confidence in 97L avoiding the Gulf of Mexico. The trend over the past day has gone from a progressive trough to an upper low that is trapped over the East US for a while. This limits the eastward expansion of the ridge over Texas, and it erodes the ridge over the West Atlantic. I am certainly worried for Hispaniola though. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane as modeled would undoubtedly kill hundreds, if not thousands.
Models now initiating too far north and east. This will go windward passage at best. Now looking like most likely big impact of major will be through central Cuba. IMO.
Quoting 592. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm gaining confidence in 97L avoiding the Gulf of Mexico. The trend over the past day has gone from a progressive trough to an upper low that is trapped over the East US for a while. This limits the eastward expansion of the ridge over Texas, and it erodes the ridge over the West Atlantic. I am certainly worried for Hispaniola though. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane as modeled would undoubtedly kill hundreds, if not thousands.


are t some still liveing in tent city in Hispaniola
Quoting 593. DeepSeaRising:

Models now initiating too far north and east. This will go windward passage at best. Now looking like most likely big impact of major will be through central Cuba. IMO.


The OTS scenario is far from etched in stone. There are several things that could still pull this into the US (even if not the Gulf of Mexico), including latitude, area of vort consolidation (it's still an elongated wave), weaker trough, and the global models' inherent inability to accurately predict cutoff lows. Couple that with the climatological approach of autumn where the jet stream typically starts to meander and kink, and you have all kinds of uncertainty. Oh, and the Greater Antilles, too.
It's all about where the center forms. These model runs are too far north and east. I feel this will consolidate and make a run at central and western Cuba. Storm center from consolidation of model runs will be right at Miami.
597. ackee
The cmc takes pre Mathew further west pull it north near Jamaica and Cuba the timing of that north turn interesting shift coming days

Seems to cover a LARGE area already
the 0z is a lot closer too the US this run may be 100 miles off the coast or so

Quoting 598. Starhopper:


Where is the center located
601. ackee
Quoting 592. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm gaining confidence in 97L avoiding the Gulf of Mexico. The trend over the past day has gone from a progressive trough to an upper low that is trapped over the East US for a while. This limits the eastward expansion of the ridge over Texas, and it erodes the ridge over the West Atlantic. I am certainly worried for Hispaniola though. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane as modeled would undoubtedly kill hundreds, if not thousands. Sad hope they prepared the cmc show further west before the turn I hate say this but I hope that the track it takes Cuba as very good system can prepare better for Strom of that strength than them
vary closed call on this run

603. ackee
Quoting 592. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm gaining confidence in 97L avoiding the Gulf of Mexico. The trend over the past day has gone from a progressive trough to an upper low that is trapped over the East US for a while. This limits the eastward expansion of the ridge over Texas, and it erodes the ridge over the West Atlantic. I am certainly worried for Hispaniola though. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane as modeled would undoubtedly kill hundreds, if not thousands. Sad hope they prepared the cmc show further west before the turn I hate say this but I hope that the track it takes Cuba as very good system can prepare better for Strom of that strength than them
Here's what we know, a major is a 50/50 shot. It could go over Haiti/DR as a Cat 2, or it could slip south and slam and die into the mountains of central Cuba. Or it could slip further south, go over western Cuba, slam into Florida as a Cat 3 and race up the eastern seaboard. Or it could bomb into a Cat five and go anywhere. We know, it's WU game on. Been a long time.
from new york too boston too main will need too keep watch from this has you could see at strong winds and rain

This run is deff not OTS. Storm aims for the Northeast coastline.
Quoting 607. reedzone:

This run is deff not OTS. Storm aims for the Northeast coastline.


still a bit off shore but wow that is a closed call
Quoting 600. bupsin101:

Where is the center located

Not sure...If I had to take a wild guess? 41.5 / 8.2

Official:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
has changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and
south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
An east coast sweeper is certainly possible with this kind of set up. Departing trough and Blocking Ridge over the North Atlantic south of Greenland. Similar to Sandy, but not quite the phasing.

not sure if this will still be tropical by time it gets up there but if it is major hurricane land fall for canda

Quoting 609. Starhopper:


Not sure...If I had to take a wild guess? 41.5 / 8.2

Official:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
has changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and
south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Convection seems to be to the north of the center
Big concern is a strong storm remaining off the east coast of Florida. A sub 970mb storm races up the east coast, slamming into the NE as a major. Who knows? This could still make the Gulf or go OTS. We are traveling with blinders. Models have a clue, but what's to come is unknown. Doom models may decide to make a comeback tomorrow.
Quoting 610. GTstormChaserCaleb:

An east coast sweeper is certainly possible with this kind of set up. Departing trough and Blocking Ridge over the North Atlantic south of Greenland. Similar to Sandy, but not quite the phasing.




that storm is setting right off the east coast by about 50 too 100 miles or so that is a closed call there if that storm moves about 50 miles more inland then we will have a major issue on are hands
Quoting 612. bupsin101:

Convection seems to be to the north of the center

Yes, spread out widely and in front of...
Exeunt, stage right



Finis

Quoting 605. DeepSeaRising:

Here's what we know, a major is a 50/50 shot. It could go over Haiti/DR as a Cat 2, or it could slip south and slam and die into the mountains of central Cuba. Or it could slip further south, go over western Cuba, slam into Florida as a Cat 3 and race up the eastern seaboard. Or it could bomb into a Cat five and go anywhere. We know, it's WU game on. Been a long time.

I see Matthew becoming a retired name after this
"Hurricanes that have a severe impact on lives or the economy are remembered generations after the devastation they caused, and some go into weather history." That last part I think suits Hermine well, Hermine will be remembered as the first Hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 10-11 years, I think retirement of the name Hermine is not out of the question
Quoting 616. Starhopper:


Yes, spread out widely and in front of...
What's the shear over the system ?
Quoting 619. Icybubba:

"Hurricanes that have a severe impact on lives or the economy are remembered generations after the devastation they caused, and some go into weather history." That last part I think suits Hermine well, Hermine will be remembered as the first Hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 10-11 years, I think retirement of the name Hermine is not out of the question


If they retire Hermine, I will be ambivalent. The name sucks, but the storm didn't do nearly enough damage to merit retirement.
Quoting 615. thetwilightzone:



that storm is setting right off the east coast by about 50 too 100 miles or so that is a closed call there if that storm moves about 50 miles more inland then we will have a major issue on are hands
You got that right Taz, this would cause significant coastal flooding, beach erosion, and dangerous rip currents. Top that with the winds as the wind field spreads out as the system acquires a more subtropical/hybrid look to it. Perhaps similar to Hermine, but stronger.
If this consolidates and heads south of Haiti/DR, then we have to watch for major that will likely be historic.
Quoting 620. bupsin101:

What's the shear over the system ?

Link

Guess: 5-15
Quoting 617. BaltimoreBrian:

Exeunt, stage right



Finis





and it looks like that could end are season after that storm
Quoting 621. KoritheMan:



If they retire Hermine, I will be ambivalent. The name sucks, but the storm didn't do nearly enough damage to merit retirement.

I agree, retirement of Matthew atm seems more likely
Hermine will never be retired. Hermine will be a test subject for students, nothing more. Dropped lots of rain, but was a non player outside of that. Hermine is the definition of a minimum hurricane.
Quoting 627. DeepSeaRising:

Hermine will never be retired. Hermine will be a test subject for students, nothing more. Dropped lots of rain, but was a non player outside of that. Hermine is the definition of a minimum hurricane.


The entire highlight of my chase was Cantore. I had stronger winds with Isaac.
Quoting 624. Starhopper:


Link




after what happen with Karl that shear map can not be trusted i am sure there are other shear maps we can look in too like the wind shear maps on the GFS runs but that map was way off on Karl it show it had 5 too 10 kt of shear but it should have showed 30 too 40kt of shear over it and it was driving the NHC nuts if i recall
Quoting 625. thetwilightzone:




and it looks like that could end are season after that storm


No Taz. You'll still get 2 or 3 more from frontal trash. Maybe one more Caribbean system, too (although probably not a major).
Quoting 627. DeepSeaRising:

Hermine will never be retired. Hermine will be a test subject for students, nothing more. Dropped lots of rain, but was a non player outside of that. Hermine is the definition of a minimum hurricane.

But the storm surge camera took one for the team XD
Shear maps over the last three years have been amazingly accurate. Off of Africa plus a few hundred miles, not so much. They have been a quality trusted tool for many of us over the last few years. Accuracy has been very good.
45W 9N by now.



Quoting 609. Starhopper:


Not sure...If I had to take a wild guess? 41.5 / 8.2

Official:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
has changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and
south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Quoting 629. thetwilightzone:




after what happen with Karl that shear map can not be trusted i am sure there are other shear maps we can look in too like the wind shear maps on the GFS runs but that map was way off on Karl it show it had 5 too 10 kt of shear but it should have showed 30 too 40kt of shear over it and it was driving the NHC nuts if i recall

Yeah, and I am still thinking of the ton of spaghetti tracks across S Florida in Hermine and the Tampa run :)
Quoting 633. swflurker:

45W 9N




Guess:) I cant see much with all the swirling :)
Retiring Hermine would be absurd. It was a Cat 1 hurricane that caused mild to moderate damage.
Quoting 636. BaltimoreBrian:

Retiring Hermine would be absurd. It was a Cat 1 hurricane that caused mild to moderate damage.


It made landfall in the least populated section of Florida. I was bored out of my mind, walking blocks to the only restaurant in Carrabelle. It doesn't need to be retired.
I do think we will see some decent model shifts again over the coming days we wait and see

Quoting 624. Starhopper:


Link

Guess: 5-15
Seems like there is a weak anticyclone over the system
Quoting 636. BaltimoreBrian:

Retiring Hermine would be absurd. It was a Cat 1 hurricane that caused mild to moderate damage.

Well I don't think they will, but they have retired TS names before
Quoting 637. KoritheMan:

It made landfall in the least populated section of Florida. I was bored out of my mind, walking blocks to the only restaurant in Carrabelle. It doesn't need to be retired.
Was the restaurant any good?
Quoting 640. Icybubba:

Well I don't think they will, but they have retired TS names before
In cases like Allison they caused catastrophic damage and many deaths.
643. JRRP7
Quoting 641. BaltimoreBrian:

Was the restaurant any good?


Subway. I say yes, but it certainly wasn't anything special. >_>
Quoting 643. JRRP7:



HWRF needs to calm down
Quoting 642. BaltimoreBrian:

In cases like Allison they caused catastrophic damage and many deaths.


Nameless Louisiana tropical cyclone of August 2016 would've been retired as well.
Kori, I just wundermailed you a recommendation for a good place to find something to eat, from personal experience.
Quoting 642. BaltimoreBrian:

In cases like Allison they caused catastrophic damage and many deaths.


Hermine will never be retired. Few TS's that have been, have all caused historic damage. Hermine was a warning bell, that will not be heeded. We are too well entertained to be aware of the potential to come. Efforts will be great when that day comes; but we will heed not. Evacuations will not suffice. Because human nature tells us we know better. If only! The plan for the Big One is in place. Human think is not so much.
Quoting 648. DeepSeaRising:



Hermine will never be retired. Few TS's that have been, have all caused historic damage. Hermine was a warning bell, that will not be heeded. We are too well entertained to be aware of the potential to come. Efforts will be great when that day comes; but we will heed not. Evacuations will not suffice. Because human nature tells us we know better. If only! The plan for the Big One is in place. Human think is not so much.

What the heck are you talking about?
650. JRRP7
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Earl have a much better chance or retirement than Hermine, was much deadlier than her. If Hermine is retired I will seriously question the retirement guidelines. As the damage it caused its not enough imo for taking her out of the list. So far she hasnt produce a 1 billion dollars like other storms that were retire.
Quoting 650. JRRP7:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


Yup, I expected that
653. JRRP7
Quoting 648. DeepSeaRising:



Hermine will never be retired. Few TS's that have been, have all caused historic damage. Hermine was a warning bell, that will not be heeded. We are too well entertained to be aware of the potential to come. Efforts will be great when that day comes; but we will heed not. Evacuations will not suffice. Because human nature tells us we know better. If only! The plan for the Big One is in place. Human think is not so much.
Not true, Alma didnt caused historic damage and it was retired.
Quoting 651. allancalderini:

Earl have a much better chance or retirement than Hermine, was much deadlier than her. If Hermine is retired I will seriously question the retirement guidelines. As the damage it caused its not enough imo for taking her out of the list. So far she hasnt produce a 1 billion dollars like other storms that were retire.

Hermine caused damage to some buildings, 1 death, and RIP Ceder Key cam, I agree Hermine should not get retired, I am not even arguing
656. JRRP7
Quoting 656. JRRP7:



Holy crap HWRF
658. 7544
Quoting 653. JRRP7:




no recurve yet and hwrf has ot right there and getting stronger on the 0z hmm
50/90
I poked the wind map ahead of the invest. Previous was 8.26W 43.87W

Quoting 635. Starhopper:

Guess:) I cant see much with all the swirling :)
Quoting 656. JRRP7:



Beastly!!
662. 7544
Quoting 656. JRRP7:




buzzz saw !
Cariboy might get excited about that!
Close enough to get some rain, but far enough away, not to have problems.



Quoting 656. JRRP7:


Quoting 663. swflurker:

Cariboy might get excited about that!




No he won't. Not unless it's directly over him. I've never seen anyone complain so much. At least I'm fine with a sideswipe.
665. JRRP7
looks annular
Regardless of whether 97L eventually impacts the United States, we're gonna have a deadly Caribbean hurricane. Collectively, that makes Earl, Hermine, and Matthew as hurricane landfalls. We've also had the most US landfalls since 2008 (4). I'd say all of that makes for a pretty memorable season.
If it comes here in SW FL, the room is still available.
Wilma's eye missed by about 20 miles.
Would like to go through an eye. On my bucket list!
Edit: Have had some TS centers pass over here.


Quoting 664. KoritheMan:



No he won't. Not unless it's directly over him. I've never seen anyone complain so much. At least I'm fine with a sideswipe.
668. JRRP7
669. JRRP7
see you tomorrow... I will go to the work at 7:00 am
I've been riveted watching this system unfold. Going on 2 hrs sleep and can't walk away from it. IF Matthew makes a landfall here in FL, I might sleep through it! (Hardly) This storm has the potential to be catastrophic for many, many people. It's out of our hands; sit, watch, wait and pray you'll be out of harms way. What's gonna be is gonna be.
Quoting 666. KoritheMan:

Regardless of whether 97L eventually impacts the United States, we're gonna have a deadly Caribbean hurricane. Collectively, that makes Earl, Hermine, and Matthew as hurricane landfalls. We've also had the most US landfalls since 2008 (4). I'd say all of that makes for a pretty memorable season.

Are we good to say that it is going to be a hurricane? Because I mean Karl was supposed to be a hurricane as well
My percentages of landfalls
Western gulf Coast 0%
Central gulf Coast 30%
Eastern gulf coast/Florida 50%
OTS 20%
Turns towards the WNW on the last frame. West of the 12z run.



NAVGEM shows a hurricane approaching South FLA or the Keys.



Quoting 636. BaltimoreBrian:

Retiring Hermine would be absurd. It was a Cat 1 hurricane that caused mild to moderate damage.
+ two deaths, as I know

Extreme westward shift.
Blog is slow
At least the Euro makes sense and makes the system turn west under a high.


The GFS still plows through it...
678. ackee
So the Euro trending west with it oz run in where mathew made land form in Haiti and not sharp turn to the Dominican Republic also Cmc trending further west bring storm east of Jamaica to Cuba could the model shift back west in there next run let see
I'm fearing this hurricane the most. Conditions favor intensification once in the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea. This should become a Major Hurricane just as the HWRF suggests, 110 knots is not out of the question.
Spin is starting to increase over the entire wave now. COnvection is increasing in coverage and intensity in the western part of the wave where convergence is the likely cause. Now I officially can't sleep due to the excitement I feel about this system. THe excitement is in the science of the storm and perhaps peak intensity, not the impact on life it will no doubtly have on people.

absolutely no convection in there

Getting that look. Perhaps code red next TWO.
683. ackee
Quoting 675. HurricaneAndre:


Extreme westward shift. Could shift further west next set of models run should be fun to watch
Quoting 682. HurricaneAndre:


Getting that look. Perhaps code red next TWO Seems to be slowing down aswell
Quoting 683. ackee:


I agree.
Quoting 684. bupsin101:

Yep, slowing considerably.
Quoting 685. hydrus:


That's going to be one scary one eyed monster.
689. SLU
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
What link did you use to get this?
Quoting 688. HurricaneAndre:

That's going to be one scary one eyed monster.
Quoting 651. allancalderini:

Earl have a much better chance or retirement than Hermine, was much deadlier than her. If Hermine is retired I will seriously question the retirement guidelines. As the damage it caused its not enough imo for taking her out of the list. So far she hasnt produce a 1 billion dollars like other storms that were retire.
I think they should just go ahead and retire future Matthew just for scaring the crap out of us!
Yeah this would be a monster hurricane in the E Caribbean if this holds up
Quoting 681. NunoLava1998:


absolutely no convection in there

Probably embedded line convection in part of the Cf.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large low
pressure area located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands has increased and become a little better organized
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward
Islands, the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well
as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart
The Euro is very slow with 97L..


Good morning. GFS 06z incoming.
Quoting 663. swflurker:

Cariboy might get excited about that!
Close enough to get some rain, but far enough away, not to have problems.




Jesus!!!!!
Quoting 651. allancalderini:

Earl have a much better chance or retirement than Hermine, was much deadlier than her. If Hermine is retired I will seriously question the retirement guidelines. As the damage it caused its not enough imo for taking her out of the list. So far she hasnt produce a 1 billion dollars like other storms that were retire.
Watch out now.....Some Floridian might get all in their feelings."But Hermine was the first hurricane to....".In a season like 2004 2005 and 2008 Hermine would have been easily overlooked.Let's get real now .

Friday/Saturday night.


Saturday.
I can't see it right now, what is latest GFS showing so far?
705. MahFL
Morning all, I see the ridge on the 06Z GFS looks a little stronger....
706. SLU
Cat 3 in 5 days

Nothing shown on the models yet, but the tail end of that cold front may make it into the gulf..Development could happen.

good/morning...large.one
Quoting 702. barbamz:


Friday/Saturday night.


Saturday.


Strengthening fast again wow, probably will be more west this run, this is going to be the real deal.
Morning
Quoting 710. Chicklit:

Morning



Good morning.. 97L should start to get its act together a little more today convection on the increase
713. JRRP7
715. MahFL
Quoting 712. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Good morning.. 97L should start to get its act together a little more today convection on the increase


It has 40 kts of shear infront of it, how is it going to develop ?
Quoting 713. JRRP7:




Wow didn't shift much to the west like I thought but possible when north of islands, that is something Hispanola does not need, geez.
Local weather man is talking about a deep trough coming through later this week that should dig quite south.
Quoting 707. hydrus:

Nothing shown on the models yet, but the tail end of that cold front may make it into the gulf..Development could happen.



Indeed! While the focus is the Caribbean, let's not forget the Gomex for possible development at the tail end of the front.


Quoting 715. MahFL:



It has 40 kts of shear infront of it, how is it going to develop ?


Lol didn't say it was going to develop today, just that there will be more organization at the surface, the shear will start to lessen over the next 72 hours.
Quoting 712. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Good morning.. 97L should start to get its act together a little more today convection on the increase
Needs to gain some latitude also. Coriolis effect is a big player .
722. ackee
Quoting 716. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Wow didn't shift much to the west like I thought could when north of islands, that is something Hispanola does not need, geez.
if the GFS going shift west it might be on 12z run or 18z for this system those run notice the model make major change I am going see if the 12z Euro shift west or Matain it track
Quoting 712. WeatherkidJoe2323:


Good morning.. 97L should start to get its act together a little more today convection on the increase

If maps are believed, it's got shear directly ahead, but look at the moisture envelope


It looks like a ram.
And Megi keeps on churning towards the middle of Taiwan:



97L's vorticity getting rounder.
726. MahFL
Quoting 724. pingon:

And Megi keeps on churning towards the middle of Taiwan:


Oh yer, I forgot about that.
Quoting 723. Chicklit:


If maps are believed, it's got shear directly ahead, but look at the moisture envelope



Yes 97 is creating a good environment for itself
728. beell
A MAJOR difference here wrt storm location...

Both frames from the 00Z ECMWF (top), and GFS (bottom). Both valid at 240 hrs.





Something is jacked.

Quoting 723. Chicklit:


If maps are believed, it's got shear directly ahead, but look at the moisture envelope


It looks like a ram.
Greetings Chick...I sure hope this does not pan out...

Shorts Bermuda - real estate that is.

731. MahFL
GFS still has 97L going out to sea, no problems for mainland USA...
looks like ernesto about ten yrs ago. remember that one like yesterday. gfs and all the models had it yucatan bound except for the gfdl. one of the last times gfdl ruled the coup.
Quoting 728. beell:

A MAJOR difference here wrt storm location...

Both frames from the 00Z ECMWF (top), and GFS (bottom). Both valid at 240 hrs.





Something is jacked.


Yep..No defined center for the models to latch on to...It jacks them almost every time..For those thinking about wind shear, it is forecast to drop off rather dramatically by the time 97 reaches the Caribbean Sea.


72 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
850 vorticity map won't come up on CIMMS.
But here's 700mb

shows better organization as barbamz mentioned
Hi all new here, from Bonaire. Prediction for friday in my neck of the woods

https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-30-15,11.415,-69 .214,6
736. beell
.
Good morning all! Happy Monday! Just a slight bit worried. We all know if models say it's going to hit Florida, it doesn't. Well, these models don't really show a Florida hit....it's making me think a little.
1 minute ago
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
0Z EURO ensemble tracks shifted significantly west from 12Z, with most into the Gulf. Low confidence in long term track. #97L #Matthew
Quoting 732. islander101010:

looks like ernesto about ten yrs ago. remember that one like yesterday. gfs and all the models had it yucatan bound except for the gfdl. one of the last times gfdl ruled the coup.
Good morning..A lot of people knew Earnesto was not going to the Yucatan. Haiti killed its inner core ( which was small), but did maintain tropical storm status...Dr Steve Lyons mentioned had Earnesto reached the gulf waters, the situation could change drastically. For what its worth, Earnesto did hold itself together fairly well moving up the Florida east coast, and then intensified while moving up the Eastern Seaboard..

740. beell
Quoting 733. hydrus:

Yep..No defined center for the models to latch on to...It jacks them almost every time..


Remarkable agreement-give or take a thousand miles or so, lol!

Mentioned day before yesterday that forward speed for 97L could drop to around 5 knots in the central Caribbean due to weak steering and certainly a concern if true given some modeled hints at near perfect upper-level conditions. I'll stick with that for now.
741. beell
nrt! fix the blog!
For anyone still thinking it will head further west, just know the the reason it hooks so far right is the cutoff low stalls, and drops way to to the south. In prior runs, the GFS had it moving out of the way.
Interesting, WPC has the storm SE of Jamaica. High pressure to the North, stationary to the south. What gives here?
Quoting 729. hydrus:

Greetings Chick...I sure hope this does not pan out...


watch it change and have 97 into the western carib..
Quoting 379. JRRP7:

buoy
14.3n 46.0w


Quoting this post with the buoy reading as it got interesting updates (pressure drop).


Where the buoy is located.
746. JRRP7
Quoting 738. WeatherkidJoe2323:

1 minute ago
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
0Z EURO ensemble tracks shifted significantly west from 12Z, with most into the Gulf. Low confidence in long term track. #97L #Matthew


No surprise there. ECMWF is significantly slower through 192 hours than the GFS is. GFS has 97L north of Hispaniola in that timeframe, whereas the ECMWF still has the system in the Caribbean.

Convergence, divergence, vorticity in 97L's wave quite close together.
749. JRRP7
This is far from over; 6z GFS is the furthest east yet, but as others have noticed the 0z ECMWF ensembles are far to the west, many in the Gulf. We just don't know yet. 97L has become better organized overnight, however, and it looks like we'll have a developing TD in 48-72 hours.
751. ackee
Quoting 750. MAweatherboy1:

This is far from over; 6z GFS is the furthest east yet, but as others have noticed the 0z ECMWF ensembles are far to the west, many in the Gulf. We just don't know yet. 97L has become better organized overnight, however, and it looks like we'll have a developing TD in 48-72 hours. Agree I share the view
752. ackee
Quoting 750. MAweatherboy1:

This is far from over; 6z GFS is the furthest east yet, but as others have noticed the 0z ECMWF ensembles are far to the west, many in the Gulf. We just don't know yet. 97L has become better organized overnight, however, and it looks like we'll have a developing TD in 48-72 hours. Agree I share the view
Quoting 747. CybrTeddy:



No surprise there. ECMWF is significantly slower through 192 hours than the GFS is. GFS has 97L north of Hispaniola in that timeframe, whereas the ECMWF still has the system in the Caribbean. I think the 12z euro run will be interesting if it shift west and 12z GFs as well
The cutoff/deep trough forecasted to develop in the east this week will determine where it will go. Watch that in the models from run to run.
Quoting 701. washingtonian115:

Watch out now.....Some Floridian might get all in their feelings."But Hermine was the first hurricane to....".In a season like 2004 2005 and 2008 Hermine would have been easily overlooked.Let's get real now .


That's beyond silly. I'm a long time lurker and even I had to log in to comment on this. You're smarter than that, wash.

It would ludicrous if Hermine or Earl were retired. Neither warrant it.

Click to enlarge. 97L hurrying with fluttering hair.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast
of South America, should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser
Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity increased overnight in association with the
remnants of Lisa. Although earlier scatterometer data indicated
winds to tropical storm force, the system's circulation was somewhat
elongated. Unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to
cause the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure later
today without the possibility of regeneration into a tropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Some models have Hispaniola being hit...WPC and Euro show otherwise.

Quoting 750. MAweatherboy1:

This is far from over; 6z GFS is the furthest east yet, but as others have noticed the 0z ECMWF ensembles are far to the west, many in the Gulf. We just don't know yet. 97L has become better organized overnight, however, and it looks like we'll have a developing TD in 48-72 hours.


The pattern over north america is very complex, the GFS showing the cutoff low backing west is utter maddness. all depends on whether is dives deep enough like GFS and ensembles show. Euro ensembles say not happening. Reminds me Joquain only that was further north
Quoting 757. hydrus:

Some models have Hispaniola being hit...WPC and Euro show otherwise.




Regardless where it's going, future Matthew is going to be a huge storm with a potentially wide impact area.
Good Morning Folks. Too early to know whether 97L will be a threat to the US but the Antilles are in play first...............Interesting note with the current model runs with some making a sharp North turn around Hispanola.

Most low-riders this low are usually too far South to get picked up by a trof and keep going West towards Mexico or Central America; the steering for this potential storm will be interesting to track.






Quoting 757. hydrus:

Some models have Hispaniola being hit...WPC and Euro show otherwise.




00Z Euro still shows the system going over western Haiti.
I haven't seen anything more current than that.

Maybe a shift west with the 12Z?
Nice job so far with a rather large moisture pouch to fend off dry air intrusion as the wave starts to organize:



And here is the bigger synoptic picture to the North of the wave; Fall is a comin across the Northern tier of the US:



Quoting 754. ScooterXX7:



That's beyond silly. I'm a long time lurker and even I had to log in to comment on this. You're smarter than that, wash.

It would ludicrous if Hermine or Earl were retired. Neither warrant it.

If anything Alex should get retired just for being such an unusual hurricane.
And finally, and as noted below by another Blogger, it is a very large wave. They all consolidate down in size at some point but too early to know how much it will contract over the next few days on the way to TD/Storm designation:



The 5 day cone has shortened quite a bit ,which means it will slow down,any more slowing the trough will lift out and shift the storm further west,
Thru the Windward Passage?? Who would have thought this 6 days ago??

so looks like its missing the western caribbean fine by me....
Quoting 760. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. Too early to know whether 97L will be a threat to the US but the Antilles are in play first...............Interesting note with the current model runs with some making a sharp North turn around Hispanola.

Most low-riders this low are usually too far South to get picked up by a trof and keep going West towards Mexico or Central America; the steering for this potential storm will be interesting to track.







not one of those models brings it west of Jamaica....
is this a function of how strong it is?
Quoting 768. Grothar:

Thru the Windward Passage?? Who would have thought this 6 days ago??


Here is a portion  NCEP Caribbean Discussion for this morning; nice synopsis of the synoptic environment the wave is headed towards and it is mentioned in the last paragraph; they are already expecting winds in the 30 knot range well to the North of the disturbance to the South of PR:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
650 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

THE 250 HPA TUTT LOW/TROUGH IS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS FROM THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE TUTT
RETROGRESSES...IT WILL DRAW A MOIST PLUME/INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE INCREASED IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH RAPID EROSION OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PHASES WITH THE PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MEANWHILE...AS EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONFINE TO WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TENDENCY
IS FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY AS THE
MOIST PLUME ADVECTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY INCREASES...WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD EXPECTING A
RAINFALL MINIMA.


ALSO DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TRACKING FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION LATER THIS WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTH...THE
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT
TO ENVELOP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN GENERATION OF STREAMERS/SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THESE ARE TO AFFECT THE VI-EASTERN
PUERTO RICO FROM TIME-TO-TIME...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AGRAMONTE...ONAMET (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
CASTILLO...UCR (COSTA RICA)
CONTRERAS...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)





Quoting 761. Sfloridacat5:



00Z Euro still shows the system going over western Haiti.
I haven't seen anything more current than that.

Maybe a shift west with the 12Z?
If you really want to know what I think with this. Number one. This will become a dangerous hurricane. Number two. A track somewhere close to the Windward Passage, then into the Bahamas, then possibly near the east coast. I am going out on a limb here, but it is a fairly common track for systems coming in from that part of the Atlantic. The key player as far as the U.S. is concerned is how far west does the Bermuda High ridge west after the upper low or trof lifts out.
Quoting 728. beell:

A MAJOR difference here wrt storm location...

Both frames from the 00Z ECMWF (top), and GFS (bottom). Both valid at 240 hrs.





Something is jacked.


Yes something is Jacked, it's called the GFS, and it s**ks.
Funny how the ones saying this could threaten the gulf aren't being prosecuted but don't you dare say the U.S could avoid a hit.Your head will be put on the chopping block.
776. JRRP7
As usual, we will not have a good picture for the outcome downstream until the models (along with recon data) can initialize an actual TD or tropical storm so NHC can narrow down the cone/track forecast. The current models suggest moving across Hispanola and a possible swipe at the Outer Banks but this will change over the next few days depending on where in the Caribbean, and how much further West or East, the TD/Storm actually forms.

We will probably have a better idea around Wednesday at this juncture; the later the TD forms in the period, the further West the turn and track will nudge. However, this will be a significant threat for the Antilles; someone is going to the in the NE quad for some time as the storms goes through and Hispanola and Puerto Rico need to keep a close eye on this one in terms of the rain and flash flooding threat.

Quoting 775. washingtonian115:

Funny how the ones saying this could threaten the gulf aren't being prosecuted but don't you dare say the U.S could avoid a hit.Your head will be put on the chopping block.
Good morning Washi..There is a chance of this making into the gulf..There may be a second storm coming after this one..Active period is upon the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 768. Grothar:

Thru the Windward Passage?? Who would have thought this 6 days ago??


Why would anyone believe these model runs, especially the Good For S^*t model, until they have an actual low to latch on too.
Quoting 776. JRRP7:




If it's already west of Hispanola's longitude, throws those tracks away. this is another joquain. delicate north american pattern
Quoting 776. JRRP7:




Ensembles are weaker through 5 days then 00z run
Quoting 773. Grothar:










Very Good Grothar! Thats good and scary!!
Quoting 780. wunderweatherman123:



If it's already west of Hispanola's longitude, throws those tracks away. this is another joquain. delicate north american pattern
Joaquin ;-}
Track error beyond 5 days can be 200 miles plus with an invest.
good morning everyone,

is the front supposed to go down that far south?? being such a low rider, jmo i believe it will be too low for the front to catch it...but we shall see. everyone keep up the great work. there will be plenty of swells for us surfers.
Quoting 763. weathermanwannabe:

And here is the bigger synoptic picture to the North of the wave; Fall is a comin across the Northern tier of the US:




Yep...40,s forecast here in TN...upper 60,s low 70,s during the day...excellent.
It's looking like a curve OTS. Do you all think so?
Somebody has serious anger issues this morning!
Quoting 782. NativeSun:

I wish it to hit DC as a cat 5, and hope it puts an end to the U.S. major impact drought.

Quoting 779. NativeSun:

Why would anyone believe these model runs, especially the Good For S^*t model, until they have an actual low to latch on too.

Quoting 774. NativeSun:

Yes something is Jacked, it's called the GFS, and it s**ks.
Quoting 770. 19N81W:

not one of those models brings it west of Jamaica....
is this a function of how strong it is?


There has always been a disagreement on two basic questions. If a system is strong it will go north. Wrong. It depends on whether there is a low which is strong enough to pull it north. The other question is that only strong systems create their own environment. Wrong. While it is rare for weaker storms to create their own environment, it does happen. Maybe not to the same degree, but they can often isolate themselves with enough moisture to avoid more dry air intrusion. It all depends on the true atmospheric dynamics. More than 6 days ago, I wrote about this system possibly going thru the Windward Passage, only because the long range models showed a weakness in the very strong ridge that was in place. I didn't have a "gut" feeling. Just following what it showed. There was also a possibility of a second trough which might not occur until the system was further west, which were included in some models at the time. We of course know that this current movement turning the system further north is only the GFS solution at this time.
we really need the recon out there has i think the NHC has 97L way too low i put 97L closer too 10 or 11N may be at 12N? at this time so i wounder if it safe too say we can throw out the model runs has they are too far S?




Quoting 793. thetwilightzone:

we really need the recon out there has i think the NHC has 97L way too low i put 97L closer too 10 or 11N may be at 12N? at this time so i wounder if it safe too say we can throw out the model runs has they are too far S?





Recon will be out tomorrow.
Europeans are doing some research in the North Atlantic:





While reviewing some of their planning documents came across this image, which got a LOL.


19th TD of the season and may be the 18th storm of the season on the way and the next named storm on the list is Seymour

EP, 19, 2016092612, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1395W, 30, 1005, LO
Quoting 783. K8eCane:



Very Good Grothar! Thats good and scary!!


I have scarier ones coming up soon! Big change
I can't tell you where it could go beyond this point but a WNW movement to NW movement seems likely, it is a real toss up right now until we get closer in time . My current expectations is for 97L/Matthew would be to stay west of Haiti before any turn to the north.

Quoting 795. HurricaneAndre:

Recon will be out tomorrow.

Tomorrow? We need a recon yesterday
Quoting 787. Nolehead:

good morning everyone,

is the front supposed to go down that far south?? being such a low rider, jmo i believe it will be too low for the front to catch it...but we shall see. everyone keep up the great work. there will be plenty of swells for us surfers.


Local weatherman said the front should drop as far south as north Florida.
Quoting 794. nash36:



First off- Anything past five...hell, THREE days at this point, is blowing smoke.

Second- I really wish people would at least have the stones, and the intellectual honesty, to just come out and say, "YES!!!! I want a major hurricane to hit the U.S." It would explain why people around here get so salty.
Some do say they want a major hurricane, but there tune usually changes afterward. I have been through two major hurricanes myself, and we moved not go through that hell again. I saw many people have there lives ruined by these storms..
if we can get Matthew be for OCT that would give us 6 named storms for SEP


if the E PAC can get Seymour be for OCT that would give them 5
Quoting 794. nash36:



First off- Anything past five...hell, THREE days at this point, is blowing smoke.

Second- I really wish people would at least have the stones, and the intellectual honesty, to just come out and say, "YES!!!! I want a major hurricane to hit the U.S." It would explain why people around here get so salty.

Well just look at Hermene.... that was in the pain in the you know what, some on here said dissipation, King Euro, Texas, I could go on. You see a model 4 times a day it each run must be right, right? I don't have confidence in what I have seen so far.
5+ days when the issue is trough forecasting is worthless.
Doesn't matter what storm it is, if a storm enters the Caribbean, at least ONE model has it hitting Hispanola
Quoting 799. FOREX:

Calm down, you are one of three on this blog who have been consistently rude and condescending on this blog over the years. Ignore List.


Bye.
AL, 97, 2016092518, , BEST, 0, 81N, 394W, 25, 1012, DB
AL, 97, 2016092600, , BEST, 0, 85N, 411W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016092606, , BEST, 0, 89N, 428W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016092612, , BEST, 0, 93N, 460W, 25, 1010, DB

Quoting 792. Grothar:



There has always been a disagreement on two basic questions. If a system is strong it will go north. Wrong. It depends on whether there is a low which is strong enough to pull it north. The other question is that only strong systems create their own environment. Wrong. While it is rare for weaker storms to create their own environment, it does happen. Maybe not to the same degree, but they can often isolate themselves with enough moisture to avoid more dry air intrusion. It all depends on the true atmospheric dynamics. More than 6 days ago, I wrote about this system possibly going thru the Windward Passage, only because the long range models showed a weakness in the very strong ridge that was in place. I didn't have a "gut" feeling. Just following what it showed. There was also a possibility of a second trough which might not occur until the system was further west, which were included in some models at the time. We of course know that this current movement turning the system further north is only the GFS solution at this time.
Dr. Frank Marks use to say that predicting where a hurricane will go is like forecasting a wad of jello in a river. They can do some weird and fickle things.
The models appear to be in pretty good consensus the last 36 hours about 97L making some sort of turn in the eastern Caribbean and impacting Hispaniola, possibly as a major hurricane. What's in question is what the storm does afterwords. It's entirely possible that it will follow the climatological route and take the turn towards Bermdua. This scenario is supported by the GFS. However, it's just as possible the storm spends more time in the Caribbean and ends up emerging north of Hispaniola farther west. This scenario is currently supported by the ECMWF. The speed of the storm as it recurves out of the Caribbean, the position of the ULL over the southern United States, and several other factors are coming into play right now that the models simply will NOT have a good handle on until 97L becomes a tropical cyclone and enters the Caribbean. It's complete nonsense to be making posts like, "it's definitely going out to sea" or "it's definitely going to to enter the Gulf".
Quoting 764. BTRsquatter:


If anything Alex should get retired just for being such an unusual hurricane.

Going by that, Gaston should be retired for being an annular
Quoting 806. sporteguy03:


Well just look at Hermene.... that was in the pain in the you know what, some on here said dissipation, King Euro, Texas, I could go on. You see a model 4 times a day it each run must be right, right? I don't have confidence in what I have seen so far.


Oh, I completely understand how frustrating this season has been, in terms of how synoptically screwy the basin has been. When you look at Hermine, the GFS basically nailed it long-term, as Hermine DID stay weak until it reached the GOMEX. Every other model worth its salt, kept flipping back and forth on intensity.

Then you have Julia; a total anomaly. It has been a very odd year.
00z EPS showing a pretty respectable ridge over the CONUS by 192 hours.

Quoting 810. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 97, 2016092518, , BEST, 0, 81N, 394W, 25, 1012, DB
AL, 97, 2016092600, , BEST, 0, 85N, 411W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016092606, , BEST, 0, 89N, 428W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016092612, , BEST, 0, 93N, 460W, 25, 1010, DB




Garbage.
I think 97L will hit here ....

The latest and greatest

Quoting 816. CaribBoy:



Garbage.


How does CaribBoy get a pass? JFV was flayed on a stick but everyone slaps their knees and shrugs with CaribBoy's equivalent of whining.
Quoting 820. ScooterXX7:



How does CaribBoy get a pass? JFV was flayed on a stick but everyone slaps their knees and shrugs with CaribBoy's equivalent of whining.


Because CaribBoy is nice?
Still below 10N... moving fast... ok.
Quoting 812. CybrTeddy:

The models appear to be in pretty good consensus the last 36 hours about 97L making some sort of turn in the eastern Caribbean and impacting Hispaniola, possibly as a major hurricane. What's in question is what the storm does afterwords. It's entirely possible that it will follow the climatological route and take the turn towards Bermdua. This scenario is supported by the GFS. However, it's just as possible the storm spends more time in the Caribbean and ends up emerging north of Hispaniola farther west. This scenario is currently supported by the ECMWF. The speed of the storm as it recurves out of the Caribbean, the position of the ULL over the southern United States, and several other factors are coming into play right now that the models simply will NOT have a good handle on until 97L becomes a tropical cyclone and enters the Caribbean. It's complete nonsense to be making posts like, "it's definitely going out to sea" or "it's definitely going to to enter the Gulf".


Agreed 100%. It's a wait and see game with such a complex pattern emerging. As some have said, the timing of the trough + storm strength is the key and we won't know until it enters the Caribbean.
Lot's of whining on this blog this morning, everyone needs another cup of joe it seems.
Quoting 815. CybrTeddy:

00z EPS showing a pretty respectable ridge over the CONUS by 192 hours.


Yep..I am also watching the respectable ridge in the Atlantic..



And just for kicks, the CMC and JMA....

Quoting 810. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 97, 2016092518, , BEST, 0, 81N, 394W, 25, 1012, DB
AL, 97, 2016092600, , BEST, 0, 85N, 411W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016092606, , BEST, 0, 89N, 428W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016092612, , BEST, 0, 93N, 460W, 25, 1010, DB


Still relatively disorganised
Quoting 825. VAbeachhurricanes:

Lot's of whining on this blog this morning, everyone needs another cup of joe it seems.


We'll get aquak to make a pot.
Quoting 820. ScooterXX7:



How does CaribBoy get a pass? JFV was flayed on a stick but everyone slaps their knees and shrugs with CaribBoy's equivalent of whining.


Because I'm not JVF.
Quoting 825. VAbeachhurricanes:

Lot's of whining on this blog this morning, everyone needs another cup of joe it seems.
Not everyone...I drink coffee, but i do not whine...ever...
Quoting 823. CaribBoy:

Still below 10N... moving fast... ok.
It's gonna slow down soon
9N is still too low I put it closer too 10N or 11N may be 12N but not 9N all so when recon gos out in Tuesday I think they will find the center more N then S You can throw out the model if that is the case. Has they would be to far S where the NHC been tracking the center
Morning to all the weather buffs out there, some of us island folks would sure love to know what's up with 97L for the island of Trinidad, we are not use to major storms and its the view of some we are not prepared for anything major so any info will be greatly appreciated as to the estimation of what we can expect with this system.
New models just came out

Quoting 835. GeoffreyWPB:




Bloggers getting attacked, insults flying, models all wrong, chaos, insurrection, bullying; just a normal day on the blog.
Quoting 812. CybrTeddy:

The models appear to be in pretty good consensus the last 36 hours about 97L making some sort of turn in the eastern Caribbean and impacting Hispaniola, possibly as a major hurricane. What's in question is what the storm does afterwords. It's entirely possible that it will follow the climatological route and take the turn towards Bermdua. This scenario is supported by the GFS. However, it's just as possible the storm spends more time in the Caribbean and ends up emerging north of Hispaniola farther west. This scenario is currently supported by the ECMWF. The speed of the storm as it recurves out of the Caribbean, the position of the ULL over the southern United States, and several other factors are coming into play right now that the models simply will NOT have a good handle on until 97L becomes a tropical cyclone and enters the Caribbean. It's complete nonsense to be making posts like, "it's definitely going out to sea" or "it's definitely going to to enter the Gulf".


I actually disagree with this... While the GFS & its ensemble suite are further to the east, the vast majority of the EPS members are into the Gulf with the ECMWF somewhere in between... Until we get an actual tropical cyclone and until we have an idea how much land interaction occurs w/ South America, Hispaniola, Cuba & a pair of slow-moving cut-off upper level troughs (one this week & another in the following week over the northern Gulf coast & possibly FL), we have no idea where this is going nor is there a true consensus on its future. Personally, this is probably one of the most complex patterns I've ever witnessed. Interaction w/ a cut-off ULL &/or Hispaniola on their own is enough to make medium range track/intensity forecasts a major headache but to have the potential to see both @ least once, if not twice, certainly should make one extremely cautious about buying or cornering yourself into consensus solutions for the time being
Quoting 828. win1gamegiantsplease:



We'll get aquak to make a pot.


A pot for the whimps- the rest of us just shove some grounds between our cheek and gums--
Quoting 834. Grothar:

New models just came out


Pretty tight consensus over 72 hours
Quoting 833. Cocotrini:

Morning to all the weather buffs out there, some of us island folks would sure love to know what's up with 97L for the island of Trinidad, we are not use to major storms and its the view of some we are not prepared for anything major so any info will be greatly appreciated as to the estimation of what we can expect with this system.


Levi Cowan said to expect tropical storm conditions for the winwards even if we don't have a named system at the time.
No one was complaining or calling it nonsense when the models had the storm pointing towards Florida or when the GFS was showing a 899 storm south of Cuba.
97L approaching the magical 50w line...
Quoting 833. Cocotrini:

Morning to all the weather buffs out there, some of us island folks would sure love to know what's up with 97L for the island of Trinidad, we are not use to major storms and its the view of some we are not prepared for anything major so any info will be greatly appreciated as to the estimation of what we can expect with this system.
Morning Coco..Trinidad will likely have a glancing blow from a depression or weak tropical storm..This is a moisture rich system, so heavy rainfall with some squalls would ensue within 2 days or so. Keep your weather radio or media outlet handy in case there is a sudden change with strength and track.

Quoting 812. CybrTeddy:

The models appear to be in pretty good consensus the last 36 hours about 97L making some sort of turn in the eastern Caribbean and impacting Hispaniola, possibly as a major hurricane. What's in question is what the storm does afterwords. It's entirely possible that it will follow the climatological route and take the turn towards Bermdua. This scenario is supported by the GFS. However, it's just as possible the storm spends more time in the Caribbean and ends up emerging north of Hispaniola farther west. This scenario is currently supported by the ECMWF. The speed of the storm as it recurves out of the Caribbean, the position of the ULL over the southern United States, and several other factors are coming into play right now that the models simply will NOT have a good handle on until 97L becomes a tropical cyclone and enters the Caribbean. It's complete nonsense to be making posts like, "it's definitely going out to sea" or "it's definitely going to to enter the Gulf".


Here's the other thing the models have been pretty consistent about too: rapid development. Which makes me very hesitant to accept the current general forecast of a major hurricane making a N turn near Hispanola.

The last couple of seasons should have reminded us how difficult it is for a storm to spin up in the Atlantic (Pacific has no problem, apparently). Here is what we know about 97L:

1) Large system - the bigger the area of convection, the more energy it takes to get it spun up into a coherent tropical cyclone.
2) Forward speed - currently moving at 20mph, which makes stacking voticity at the various levels even more difficult.
3) Location - Sitting around 10N (depending on where CoC actually forms), which limits the natural spin from the earth's rotation that helps TS formation, and may even be far enough S to have South America limit development.

While the NHC puts the odds at development at 60% in 48 hours, keeping all of those factors in mind and I personally am expecting 97L to linger as as invest a little while longer, until at least it passes the islands and perhaps slows its forward speed as the models are indicating. Nothing quite like 99L/Hermine's frustrating "please hide the sharp objects" 10 day struggle to become a TS, but not nearly as quickly as the models are currently projecting.

And since the strength of 97L (soon to be Matthew) will be a major factor in when and how it feels the effects of steering forces, a turn the NW/N much further W in the Caribbean is, to me, the more likely outcome. Would not be at all surprised if it eventually ends up near W Cuba or the Yucatan peninsula.

However, once the engine does get started, the TCHP in the Carribean is massive, and barring significant shear impacts, I anticipate that Matthew will be the storm to break the Atlantic's 9 year Category 5 drought.
Quoting 838. Webberweather53:



I actually disagree with this... While the GFS & its ensemble suite are further to the east, the vast majority of the EPS members are into the Gulf with the ECMWF somewhere in between... Until we get an actual tropical cyclone and until we have an idea how much land interaction occurs w/ South America, Hispaniola, Cuba & a pair of slow-moving cut-off upper level troughs (one this week & another in the following week over the northern Gulf coast & possibly FL), we have no idea where this is going nor is there a true consensus on its future. Personally, this is probably one of the most complex patterns I've ever witnessed. Interaction w/ a cut-off ULL &/or Hispaniola on their own is enough to make medium range track/intensity forecasts a major headache but to have the potential to see both @ least once, if not twice, certainly should make one extremely cautious for the time being


You're probably right. I'm no met, so all my posts are of course just my $0.02. Hermine was also a tricky pattern to predict and this one appears to be even more complex. It's interesting to see how the evolution of the cut-off ULL differs from the 00z operational ECMWF and the 00z EPS run too, with the ECMWF showing the ULL over Michigan by 168 hours and the EPS showing the ULL dissipating over NY/Pen and a solid ridge building over the US by 168 hours.
Quoting 839. aquak9:



A pot for the whimps- the rest of us just shove some grounds between our cheek and gums--
When out to sea, we had cases of Maxwell House on board the ship...We were lucky if we had 5 hours sleep, one time I was up for three days...Almost killed me.
Quoting 844. hydrus:

Morning Coco..Trinidad will likely have a glancing blow from a depression or weak tropical storm..This is a moisture rich system, so heavy rainfall with some squalls would ensue within 2 days or so. Keep your weather radio or media outlet handy in case there is a sudden change with strength and track.


Serious moisture surge
Will probably not happen but the vis loops for 97L show a wave that is quickly organizing; the real best case scenario would be for it to form (TD or TS) in the next 48 hours, graze PR, and curve out to sea.............................................. :)

If the wave was moving slower, this could have been a real possibility at present but 15-20 mph is a little too fast to stack up quickly.





Too fast not too furious...maybe later.
Quoting 849. weathermanwannabe:

Will probably not happen but the vis loops for 97L show a wave that is organizing; the real best case scenario would be for it to form in the next 48 hours, graze PR, and curve out to sea.............................................. :)  If the wave was moving slower, this could have been a real possibility at present but 15-20 mph is a little too fast to stack up quickly.





Should slow down at 50w
852. elioe
Should Falkland Islands be evacuated already? Nobody should remain within a hemisphere of this monster.

Quoting 817. JrWeathermanFL:

I think 97L will hit here ....


Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)
Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)


Wow Grothar I think you might call this one finally.
it seems the models are backing off on the northward turn.....or the timing of it,
i cant see a system entering the caribbean that far south going over the DR(anyone?)
I see a TD weak and disorganized TS making the turn further west...perhaps just south of Jamaica
the eastern carib will tear this apart like they have for the last 3 years
a rain maker for us which we need.....and after that land interference until its back in the Atlantic.....
That TUTT free pocket just to the NE of the Lesser Antilles is what is allowing banding type features in the North side of the wave axis but it is already be hitting the shear pocket from the Tutt cell draped between PR, through the Antilles, and a little further East:





Quoting 849. weathermanwannabe:

Will probably not happen but the vis loops for 97L show a wave that is organizing; the real best case scenario would be for it to form in the next 48 hours, graze PR, and curve out to sea.............................................. :)  If the wave was moving slower, this could have been a real possibility at present but 15-20 mph is a little too fast to stack up quickly.





It really is far to the south, maybe even south of 10 degrees. There is little in the way of rotational assistance. Convection looks good. The centripetal force is apparent on the sat pic. Outflow looks decent.

Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)


South and west?:)
Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)


Through the Windward Passage??? :P
Quoting 855. VAbeachhurricanes:



Wow Grothar I think you might call this one finally.


I've got it nailed.
Agitatis Ultramarini!
Dominitis Ultramarini!
Non praestatis Ultramarini!
Nobilitis Ultramarini!


Or if you prefer...

Hail Matt Ward he is our lord!
Papa Smurf is looking bored!


Still a bit of sheer going on , but lots of moisture
Quoting 837. Grothar:



Bloggers getting attacked, insults flying, models all wrong, chaos, insurrection, bullying; just a normal day on the blog.
Same as it ever was.
Quoting 861. Grothar:



I've got it nailed.


What's the prediction and does it go against Levis ?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 26 SEPTEMBER 2016



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 71
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX O1FFA INVEST
C. 27/1500Z
D. 11.5N 54.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT




FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 28/0330Z
D. 11.5N 57.5W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
Still 20-40kt across the Caribbean but you guys tell me it's going away.

Quoting 867. Bucsboltsfan:

Still 20-40kt across the Caribbean but you guys tell me it's going away.




But if it doesn't, then nothing will happen.
Quoting 846. CybrTeddy:



You're probably right. I'm no met, so all my posts are of course just my $0.02. Hermine was also a tricky pattern to predict and this one appears to be even more complex. It's interesting to see how the evolution of the cut-off ULL differs from the 00z operational ECMWF and the 00z EPS run too, with the ECMWF showing the ULL over Michigan by 168 hours and the EPS showing the ULL dissipating over NY/Pen and a solid ridge building over the US by 168 hours.


Yea & there may be yet another ULL behind this one that gets stuck in the general vicinity of the northern GOM and southern US... As if this pattern wasn't complicated enough...

Quoting 857. weathermanwannabe:

That TUTT free pocket just to the NE of the Lesser Antilles is what is allowing banding type features in the North side of the wave axis but it is already be hitting the shear pocket from the Tutt cell between the Antilles and PR:






Don't believe those shear maps
New Genesis system, but where?


GENESIS025, AL, L, , , , , 71, 2016, DB, O, 2016092612, 9999999999, , 025, , , , GENESIS, , AL712016

YYYY/MM/DDHH
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 48m48 minutes ago
That's quite a system approaching the Windward Islands-- reminds me of pre-Tomas in 2010. Definitely one to watch in those islands #97L

Quoting 871. bupsin101:

Don't believe those shear maps
I'll believe the relative accuracy of the CIMSS charts for guidance (and their 3 hour updates) over your personal assertion to disregard them............................
Same as it ever was

and the days go by, let the water hold me up

once in a lifetime
Seeing it on visible. Still image, just for the record... Today, 8:15 cdt
Quoting 856. 19N81W:

it seems the models are backing off on the northward turn.....or the timing of it,
i cant see a system entering the caribbean that far south going over the DR(anyone?)
I see a TD weak and disorganized TS making the turn further west...perhaps just south of Jamaica
the eastern carib will tear this apart like they have for the last 3 years
a rain maker for us which we need.....and after that land interference until its back in the Atlantic.....



There is still a lot of disagreement. The EURO is shifting quite a bit more west in response to the ridge holding strong. In contrast to the GFS models which I think, move 97L to quickly to the north. If this is the case, it will make for a very strong hurricane in the central Caribbean. Even though there is a lot of shear ahead of 97L right now, it could easily make TS status by the time it reaches the Antilles, although most forecasts saw this a few days ago and this is not new.
Quoting 865. toddbizz:



What's the prediction and does it go against Levis ?


I haven't been to Levi's site in quite a while. However, I'm willing to bet Levi has predicted nothing, to say nothing of the fact that anything past three to five days is worthless.

Levi is one smart cookie. All that appears evident at this time, is there will be some sort of tropical entity in the Leeward Islands in the next five days.
Quoting 872. nrtiwlnvragn:

New Genesis system, but where?


GENESIS025, AL, L, , , , , 71, 2016, DB, O, 2016092612, 9999999999, , 025, , , , GENESIS, , AL712016

YYYY/MM/DDHH


Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)


Gotta give a little more insight Gro, which way is it gonna shift? Should I put the coffee on? :)
Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)


Which way do you think?
Quoting 868. jlp09550:




Has decent turning, sine of 10 degrees is about 1/6, not terribly small given its large size I would think. But I'm not a met. For this type of wave, what latitude is sufficient to see more spin?
Quoting 879. Grothar:







The satellite imaging shows active waves developing over Africa. They appear to me to be like bowling balls and they intend to knock down some pins.
Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)
and tonight will be dark!
Quoting 880. CW7859:



Gotta give a little more insight Gro, which way is it gonna shift? Should I put the coffee on? :)


It's going to Tampa. ;)
Quoting 865. toddbizz:



What's the prediction and does it go against Levis ?


I've never done a prediction. I only go by what I observe and usually write in the subjunctive. Yes, I write funnies a lot, but never joke about a system. I go more for substance than fluff. Always have, always will. Although fluff gets more attention most of them time, it isn't always substantive.
888. joHS
pouch peeples

SYNOPSIS 2016092600

P43L … 97L (NHC: 60% 2-day / 90% 5-day)
12N, 43W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Used all 120 hours to determine phase speeds. Tracks primarily westward as a large pouch, with slowing and a little loss of latitude on Day 5. OW slowly increases for two days, then jumps to 10x10-9 s-2 at 60 hours and up to 32x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours.

GFS: Similar track as in ECMWF, except without the latitude loss on Day 5. OW increases from 1x10-9 s-2 to over 9x10-9 s-2 on Day 1, reaching 12x10-9 s-2 at 36 hours, and continuing to increase to 134x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours.

UKMET:
NASA's GEOS-5 model still showing Tropical Storm for the Windward Islands early Thursday morning.

It's been really consistently brushing South America with a strengthening hurricane...

... and then devastating Jamaica.

New this morning and only because it only goes out 240hrs is this move toward the NW Caribbean after Jamaica.
Here is my prediction for 97L, could be wrong.
It will go into the Lesser Antilles as an Invest and right afterwards become a TD14, stays relatively still making a slight track west for a day and becoming a strong TS and being given the name Matthew, it continues in the Caribbean Sea for a day or two picking up strength and becoming a strong Cat 2 traveling now a slight WNW, it is now under the southern part of Cuba and starts moving north as a Cat 3 becomes a weak Cat 4 by the time is reaches SFL barely making landfall in Miami area, it weakens a bit down to a strong Cat 3 causing east coast of FL to experience strong Cat 2 weak cat 3 conditions. Matthew moves more in to the ocean bringing nice waves to Bermuda, Georgia experiences TS- weak Cat 3 conditions depending on location, Matthew strengthens to a medium Cat 4 off the coast of SC and NC and eventually becoming a Cat 5 by the time is reaches New York area, however NY will experience weak cat 4-medium Cat 3 conditions

Please take what I said with a grain of salt, it is just speculation :)
October the new September? Predicted Future Matthew is giving me some anxiety. I could see multiple landfall impacts and even more than one landfall on the CONUS. Potential is there for something substantial, that is for sure.

Quoting 884. rmbjoe1954:

The satellite imaging shows active waves developing over Africa. They appear to me to be like bowling balls and they intend to knock down some pins.
Quoting 844. hydrus:

Morning Coco..Trinidad will likely have a glancing blow from a depression or weak tropical storm..This is a moisture rich system, so heavy rainfall with some squalls would ensue within 2 days or so. Keep your weather radio or media outlet handy in case there is a sudden change with strength and track.


Thank you for your reply will keep checking.
Quoting 890. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 model still showing Tropical Storm for the Windward Islands early Thursday morning.

It's been really consistently brushing South America with a strengthening hurricane...

... and then devastating Jamaica.

New this morning and only because it only goes out 240hrs is this move toward the NW Caribbean after Jamaica.

And that would be very bad..Anything gets over the NW Caribbean will have explosive convection.
97L Brewing...


97L is pretty much right on track in terms of its development forecast...I expect by the time to gets to 50W it should really begin to intensify a bit more quickly, given the "Lesser Antilles rule" which will be in effect allowing more favourable conditions for strengthening on the approach of the system towards the islands (Windward isles not withstanding the sinking air effect) -hopefully it will not be too much of an intense storm by the time it crosses the islands. I hope no one is being complacent about the system especially in the Southern Lesser Antilles. Lead time will be rather short in this case with the likelihood of squally conditions by early tomorrow in most of the islands.
Already this morning there was quite a bit of inclement weather in the Central Lesser Antilles. By this evening the full cyclogenesis process should be on display.

Keep Safe Everyone & God's Continued Blessings!
Quoting 880. CW7859:



Gotta give a little more insight Gro, which way is it gonna shift? Should I put the coffee on? :)


Refer to post 877. The EURO will have moved their models quite a bit further west. At this time, I have to agree with that. I am not sure, but I believe the GFS might shift a little west in agreement with this.
Quoting 854. Grothar:

Expect a shift on the next model run :):):):)


Hey you forget to tell that the shift will be further N and E xD
899. tj175
Quoting 891. Icybubba:

Here is my prediction for 97L, could be wrong.
It will go into the Lesser Antilles as an Invest and right afterwards become a TD14, stays relatively still making a slight track west for a day and becoming a strong TS and being given the name Matthew, it continues in the Caribbean Sea for a day or two picking up strength and becoming a strong Cat 2 traveling now a slight WNW, it is now under the southern part of Cuba and starts moving north as a Cat 3 becomes a weak Cat 4 by the time is reaches SFL barely making landfall in Miami area, it weakens a bit down to a strong Cat 3 causing east coast of FL to experience strong Cat 2 weak cat 3 conditions. Matthew moves more in to the ocean bringing nice waves to Bermuda, Georgia experiences TS- weak Cat 3 conditions depending on location, Matthew strengthens to a medium Cat 4 off the coast of SC and NC and eventually becoming a Cat 5 by the time is reaches New York area, however NY will experience weak cat 4-medium Cat 3 conditions

Please take what I said with a grain of salt, it is just speculation :)



???????????????????? LOL
Trucking westward. Fast clip. Speed is going to make a large difference in eventual track. Slow down and stacking critical to eventual track.

Quoting 889. jlp09550:


Quoting 873. CybrTeddy:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 48m48 minutes ago
That's quite a system approaching the Windward Islands-- reminds me of pre-Tomas in 2010. Definitely one to watch in those islands #97L


Slower stronger and more north... hopefully
Bay of Campaychay

Quoting 896. Grothar:



Refer to post 877. The EURO will have moved their models quite a bit further west. At this time, I have to agree with that. I am not sure, but I believe the GFS might shift a little west in agreement with this.

So coffee it is then! I'll go pick up a few colada's then, Maxwell House just won't do lol
Quoting 900. HaoleboySurfEC:

Trucking westward.




:\
Quoting 899. tj175:




???????????????????? LOL


Speculation before there's even a storm to track is fun. Try it, you'll like it!

I'm sticking with a recurve that lands a cat 5 right in Tampa Bay.
I think models will shift west this afternoon but there may be those that still have different ideas, it is hard for me to trust any shifts if its past 5 days, models have been shifting hundreds of miles east and west for days, when it enters the Caribbean we will know better the upper level pattern.
Quoting 890. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 model still showing Tropical Storm for the Windward Islands early Thursday morning.

It's been really consistently brushing South America with a strengthening hurricane...

... and then devastating Jamaica.

New this morning and only because it only goes out 240hrs is this move toward the NW Caribbean after Jamaica.



I can only imagine if it took that track what would happen after it passed Jamaica. A cat 5 entering the Gulf or just a naked swirl. Stay tuned as each nightmare scenario will be played out in the coming days. One of these days the worst case scenario will occur.
Carib, even if future predicted Matthew does not benefit your fine island, I think we still have plenty of season to go.

Quoting 904. CaribBoy:



:\
We should see 97L starting to benefit/get a boost from the CCKW currently moving across the Caribbean:



The possibility of a track further west is scary. Will be interesting to see what the 12z GFS shows when it starts running in about an hour.
910. ackee
Crown weather

The GFS model guidance forecasts a quick turn to the north and northeast across Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas late this weekend into early next week followed by a turn to the northeast and east-northeast away from the United States. This quick turn to the north/northeast forecast by the GFS model seems suspect. The reason why is because the ridge of high pressure from the western Atlantic into the southeastern United States has been quite strong this summer and I don’t think we will see it disappear that quickly.

The GFS ensemble guidance agrees with the GFS operational model in forecasting Invest 97-L to eventually track northward out of the Caribbean across Hispaniola around Sunday and then across the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday of next week. From there, the GFS ensemble guidance diverges with quite a few members forecasting a track along the US East Coast towards New England and the Canadian Maritimes by late next week and a few GFS ensemble members forecasting a track into the area between south Florida and the Carolinas late next week.

The European operational model guidance is much further west than its forecast from yesterday afternoon. It forecasts a pull to the north between Jamaica and Haiti around next Monday and an ultimate turn back to the west-northwest near the northern coast of eastern Cuba around next Wednesday.

The European ensemble guidance have also shifted significantly to the west as compared to yesterday afternoon. A majority of the ensemble members forecasts a path into the western Caribbean by the early to middle part of next week. From there, these ensemble members forecast a west-northwest or northwest track into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.
Quoting 902. Grothar:

Bay of Campaychay




00Z UKMET develops a system there, does not really go anywhere


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.9N 96.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 72 22.8N 96.5W 1009 31
1200UTC 29.09.2016 84 23.0N 96.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 30.09.2016 96 22.4N 97.1W 1012 30
1200UTC 30.09.2016 108 CEASED TRACKING
So here is the million dollar question....my wife is going to Europe leaving Jacksonville on the 7th and has a connecting flight out of Miami that evening.....so I ask you seasoned vets (Grothar)...what is your best guess on possible landfall and where do you all think has the best chance of getting hit????? Thanks
it sure looks like it wants to take either a Mitch path, straight across or pull what Ivan did and scoot under Jamaica and spit the uprights. but still many, many hours till we really have an idea, and then we probably still won't have an idea the way this season has gone. jmo though.
I only like westcasting if the system is already at 15N. But if it's only at 10N .............
Quoting 892. HaoleboySurfEC:

October the new September? Predicted Future Matthew is giving me some anxiety. I could see multiple landfall impacts and even more than one landfall on the CONUS. Potential is there for something substantial, that is for sure.




I wouldn't be shocked if this one hooks right for Bermuda, again. Lots of time to watch.
Quoting 910. ackee:

Crown weather

The GFS model guidance forecasts a quick turn to the north and northeast across Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas late this weekend into early next week followed by a turn to the northeast and east-northeast away from the United States. This quick turn to the north/northeast forecast by the GFS model seems suspect. The reason why is because the ridge of high pressure from the western Atlantic into the southeastern United States has been quite strong this summer and I don’t think we will see it disappear that quickly.

The GFS ensemble guidance agrees with the GFS operational model in forecasting Invest 97-L to eventually track northward out of the Caribbean across Hispaniola around Sunday and then across the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday of next week. From there, the GFS ensemble guidance diverges with quite a few members forecasting a track along the US East Coast towards New England and the Canadian Maritimes by late next week and a few GFS ensemble members forecasting a track into the area between south Florida and the Carolinas late next week.

The European operational model guidance is much further west than its forecast from yesterday afternoon. It forecasts a pull to the north between Jamaica and Haiti around next Monday and an ultimate turn back to the west-northwest near the northern coast of eastern Cuba around next Wednesday.

The European ensemble guidance have also shifted significantly to the west as compared to yesterday afternoon. A majority of the ensemble members forecasts a path into the western Caribbean by the early to middle part of next week. From there, these ensemble members forecast a west-northwest or northwest track into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.


Crownweather is often wrong
Quoting 912. kcajax79:

So here is the million dollar question....my wife is going to Europe leaving Jacksonville on the 7th and has a connecting flight out of Miami that evening.....so I ask you seasoned vets (Grothar)...what is your best guess on possible landfall and where do you all think has the best chance of getting hit????? Thanks


Grothar right now :-)
97 l gives me the creeps center seems to jogging between 9 to 10 degrees north seems to be getting better organized if they system gets stronger it can be some serious problems for the windward islands Grenada Trinidad Barbados. I don't know if it will give us here in St.maarten northern leeward island any rain it depends on how far south it passes from us. Well am hoping for the best hope it doesn't become anything major to cause any massive problems for the south islands
Quoting 918. geraud1987:

97 l gives me the creeps center seems to jogging between 9 to 10 degrees north seems to be getting better organized if they system gets stronger it can be some serious problems for the windward islands Grenada Trinidad Barbados. I don't know if it will give us here in St.maarten northern leeward island any rain it depends on how far south it passes from us. Well am hoping for the best hope it doesn't become anything major to cause any massive problems for the south islands


South islands = weak systems.
Quoting 912. kcajax79:

So here is the million dollar question....my wife is going to Europe leaving Jacksonville on the 7th and has a connecting flight out of Miami that evening.....so I ask you seasoned vets (Grothar)...what is your best guess on possible landfall and where do you all think has the best chance of getting hit????? Thanks


Honestly, I have no idea and neither do the real experts. Best advice, listen to your local news
Megi has finally mixed out most of the dry air that has been plaguing her north side. What is crazy is the size of the eye that has now finally developed convection all around it's eyewall. Models showed this system developing a large eye way back when it was still an invest. Impressive.

Now the question is will it overachieve like so many past West Pac Typhoons have done in the past... Currently forecasted to make landfall at 105 knots. I would not be surprised to see this peak near 130 knots.




Of course right after I comment on that I see that JWTC just downgraded their future intensity forecast for Megi. Now only calling for it to peak at 90 knots.




Radar site of Megi approaching Taiwan.



Quoting 900. HaoleboySurfEC:

Trucking westward. Fast clip. Speed is going to make a large difference in eventual track. Slow down and stacking critical to eventual track.


Hello Surf....97L is growing in width..Wondering just how large this storm will be when it matures to hurricane status...Visible and water vapor imagery..I believe the potential center is just south of 10 degrees...




My confidence in them is about as high as my confidence in the Detroit Lions winning a football game....they forecast 4-6 inches of rain from Hermine and we received .25..... thus my sense of higher confidence in this group here
Wow, just got an infomercial on WU for weed! Wow now
the times they are a changing.

Is it just me (maybe the weed :}... ...) or is 97l starting to rotate everything from 6 to 15 deg. N latitude?

Quoting 919. CaribBoy:



South islands = weak systems.



Well they don't need nothing more than a weak system especially Dominica they already had a big disaster last year with ts Erica but keep a eye on 97l because if gets stronger than this it will take a little jog more to the north most stronger systems do I don't think that far north because the high pressure in the Atlantic but we will see. All eyes here on 97l
910. ackee
2:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2016

Crown weather


Yep..I mentioned earlier that the Bermuda High will definitely be factor with 97L,s track..It has been strong this year, but configured farther west than normal..The weather is getting stranger by the day...:)
It's a pretty complex synoptic environment in the Western Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and over/near Florida and the Bahamas at the moment; it appears to be delivering plenty of moisture towards where 97L is headed but how this environment will impact development downstream, based on the ULLS and whether they advance towards or retro-grade away from the Caribbean, is beyond my pay-grade. Hopefully, Dr. Masters will shed some light on these issues............................





Quoting 905. Icantthinkofausernam:



Speculation before there's even a storm to track is fun. Try it, you'll like it!

I'm sticking with a recurve that lands a cat 5 right in Tampa Bay.

Exactly! I am not saying that is exactly what is going to happen, it is just fun to come up with a scenario and then see how close you were
Autumn has arrived for many...Classic..

Some flooding news:

Australia:
Floodwaters peak in Forbes, but more wet weather is on its way
Sydney Morning Herald, September 26 2016, Megan Levy, Daisy Dumas
Floodwaters have peaked in the central western NSW town of Forbes overnight, but residents have been warned that more wet weather forecast for later in the week could cause river levels to rise again.
State Emergency Service Acting Deputy Commissioner Mark Morrow said the Lachlan River peaked at 10.67 metres between 9pm and 10pm on Sunday, after cumulative rainfall in the region forced evacuation orders to be issued for 1000 people on about 250 properties. ...


Catastrophe declared after NSW flooding
Updated: 2:57 pm, Monday, 26 September 2016
The Insurance Council of Australia has declared major flooding around Forbes in central NSW a catastrophe with damage expected to cost insurers tens of millions of dollars.

--------------------------------

US:
Iowa and Wisconsin hit with evacuation orders as flooding threatens
By James Masters and Shanna Pavlak, CNN, Updated 1410 GMT (2210 HKT) September 26, 2016
Evacuations and curfews have been enacted in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin as flood threats from swollen rivers and creeks continue to cause panic.
The city of Cedar Rapids asked local residents and businesses in affected areas to evacuate by 8 p.m. local time Sunday
. ...
97L more organized over time.

This week will be very interesting tracking the tropics!
Quoting 924. kcajax79:

My confidence in them is about as high as my confidence in the Detroit Lions winning a football game....they forecast 4-6 inches of rain from Hermine and we received .25..... thus my sense of higher confidence in this group here


This is why many companies hire private weather firms that have the resources to be more precise.

You also need to remember that a forecast can change with a very small deviation of a forecast. Sometimes only 10-20 miles makes a big difference.
Honestly, I could see a Tomas like system from this, but after Hispanola is the question....IF it does go there, could it go east or west of Bermuda? At this point it's too early to even say it'll hit the island, but it's definitely something that the models have been showing. We need to start focusing on watching the storms instead of trying to make this a matter of who's right and who's wrong
My current opinions about track do NOT mean that I will be sad if they don't pan out.
So what I'm saying is that it's okay to have your own forecast, but that isn't our job. Most of us aren't in a position to forecast storms, and some of us get a little butt hurt when a storm doesn't do what we tell it :)
Be prepared and have a plan and sometimes that's better than trying to forecast something away (or towards...) you.

Throw this into the mix

I think the room will be full tomorrow following the first recon mission into 97L...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 26 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX O1FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 11.5N 54.5W D. 11.5N 57.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 923. Patrap:


Good one Pat...Thank you..
Orange... you know what that means.. FLORIDAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
Quoting 890. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 model still showing Tropical Storm for the Windward Islands early Thursday morning.

It's been really consistently brushing South America with a strengthening hurricane...

... and then devastating Jamaica.

New this morning and only because it only goes out 240hrs is this move toward the NW Caribbean after Jamaica.



I do think this is a possibility

Quoting 910. ackee:

Crown weather

The GFS model guidance forecasts a quick turn to the north and northeast across Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas late this weekend into early next week followed by a turn to the northeast and east-northeast away from the United States. This quick turn to the north/northeast forecast by the GFS model seems suspect. The reason why is because the ridge of high pressure from the western Atlantic into the southeastern United States has been quite strong this summer and I don%u2019t think we will see it disappear that quickly.

The GFS ensemble guidance agrees with the GFS operational model in forecasting Invest 97-L to eventually track northward out of the Caribbean across Hispaniola around Sunday and then across the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday of next week. From there, the GFS ensemble guidance diverges with quite a few members forecasting a track along the US East Coast towards New England and the Canadian Maritimes by late next week and a few GFS ensemble members forecasting a track into the area between south Florida and the Carolinas late next week.

The European operational model guidance is much further west than its forecast from yesterday afternoon. It forecasts a pull to the north between Jamaica and Haiti around next Monday and an ultimate turn back to the west-northwest near the northern coast of eastern Cuba around next Wednesday.

The European ensemble guidance have also shifted significantly to the west as compared to yesterday afternoon. A majority of the ensemble members forecasts a path into the western Caribbean by the early to middle part of next week. From there, these ensemble members forecast a west-northwest or northwest track into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.


Yes I would agree with this

Complex situation

Funny enough kinda reminds me of Ivan forecast was to move toward over Hispaniola then it shifted W then was expected to move over Jamaica and it shifted W then it was expected to mover over sister islands then Cuba then shifted W then it was expected to move between Grand Cayman and the sister islands then it shifted W

I think this is a real possibility with this system too

Quoting 936. GeoffreyWPB:

I think the room will be full tomorrow following the first recon mission into 97L...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 26 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX O1FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 11.5N 54.5W D. 11.5N 57.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.


Oh I think it will be more than a full room
Quoting 939. JNFlori30A:

Orange... you know what that means.. FLORIDAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!



Actually red. That's off-orange :)

Well if it does manage to be an east coast runner, I only have to think back 4 years to another enormous October storm. Waters are warmer than 2012 and also it is only early October. Just hoping we have another fizzle. The potential for a monster is there and who knows what kind of wind field we could be looking at as it gains latitude.

I expressed my concerns about prevailing ridge and steering early in the season (along with many other bloggers). This is a potentially troubling system.

Nice to hear from ya. Hope we are celebrating a near miss for all 10 days from now. And some really good swell ;-)

Quoting 922. hydrus:

Hello Surf....97L is growing in width..Wondering just how large this storm will be when it matures to hurricane status...Visible and water vapor imagery..I believe the potential center is just south of 10 degrees...





12Z GFS running
">
I hope and pray that folks take this possibility of a storm seriously. The storms have a mind of their own and just make sure your family is prepared. Rather than wait till the last minute.
Just listen to the weather folks and know all the options your family will need if necessary.
We live in ILM and always watch