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Karl Approaches Bermuda; Trouble in the Caribbean Next Week?

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2016

After nearly a week as a lackluster system, Tropical Storm Karl is finally gaining strength as it heads toward a close encounter with Bermuda. As of the 11 am EDT advisory, Karl was located about 250 miles south of Bermuda, moving north at 12 mph. Karl’s top sustained winds were holding at 60 mph, its peak intensity thus far. Karl is continuing its multi-day struggle with vertical wind shear that’s tended to push its showers and thunderstorms (convection) east of its center. On Thursday night, the storm managed to consolidate a healthy core of convection around its center, but Karl remains somewhat asymmetric, with a comma-shaped structure and a large band of convection well to its east.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image for Tropical Storm Karl.

Outlook for Karl
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning are now in effect for Bermuda, and it is not out of the question that Karl will pass near the island as a minimal hurricane. Karl’s motion slowed dramatically on Thursday as the storm began rounding the west edge of a large subtropical upper-level high. The overall track forecast is straightforward: Karl will move north on Friday and begin arcing toward the north-northeast by early Saturday, bringing it near Bermuda by midday Saturday. Karl will then rapidly accelerate northeastward through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. The longitude of Karl’s center on Friday morning was only a few miles west of Hamilton, Bermuda, so it would be difficult for Karl’s center to pass directly over the island if it were to gain any eastward component to its motion as it approaches Bermuda. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model is a western outlier, bringing the center of Karl very close to the island on Saturday morning. The 06Z Friday GFS run is somewhat faster and keeps Karl about 50-100 miles southeast of Bermuda, as do the 00Z Friday runs of the UKMET and European models.


Figure 2. WU depiction of National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Karl issued Friday morning, September 23, 2016. Bermuda is depicted as the tiny dot just north of the “8 PM Fri” label.

Models agree that Karl’s strength will peak later in the weekend, when it begins to merge with a midlatitude storm system over the North Atlantic while racing northeastward. Karl will most likely be strengthening on Friday night into early Saturday as it nears Bermuda, and NHC takes Karl to minimal hurricane strength by 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Saturday. The worst-case scenario would be for Karl to approach or reach minimal hurricane strength and pass very near Bermuda. The island has experienced many hurricanes over the years and is well equipped to handle a storm of that strength. A more likely scenario, and the one favored by NHC, is that Karl will pass about 50 to 100 miles southeast of Bermuda, keeping the island on the weaker left-hand side of the storm. That would still be close enough to bring tropical storm-force conditions, so Bermuda could experience a brief period late tonight or early Saturday with sustained winds of 40 - 60 mph, including higher gusts, along with very heavy rain that could total 3” - 5”. The island will also be buffeted by high surf and large swells. Karl’s accelerating motion will limit the main period of impact to just a few hours. Karl was already bringing heavy rain showers to Bermuda on Friday morning, as seen on Bermuda radar.

An African tropical wave that could be trouble
A  tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Africa and about 350 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday morning was poorly organized, with only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. This wave is currently too close to the equator (near 8°N) to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire enough spin of its own to develop into a tropical depression, and is not likely to develop through this weekend as it heads rapidly west at 20 - 25 mph. However, the tropical wave may move far enough from the equator to be able to develop by early next week, when it reaches a point about halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. There was increased model support for development of this tropical wave in the Friday morning runs of the models compared to their Thursday morning runs. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Friday runs that this tropical wave would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Monday and Thursday next week. About 60% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Friday GFS ensemble showed development, and about 30% of the 50 members of the European model ensemble did so. Troublingly, a considerable number of the ensemble model runs showed this storm becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Working against development, at least in the next five days, will be the fast forward speed of the system—tropical waves moving at 20 mph or faster usually have trouble getting organized. However, the storm does not have as much dry air to contend with compared to other storms we have seen this year, and it would not be a surprise to see this system be close to tropical depression or tropical storm status when it begins moving into the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday night.  In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively.





Figure 3. Forecasts out to ten days from the 00Z Friday European model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late next week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future.

Tail-end development in the Gulf of Mexico looks unlikely
A cold front will move into Texas on Monday, and potentially stall just offshore of Texas on Tuesday. We’ll need to watch the tail end of this cold front for tropical development if it lingers over the Gulf of Mexico for a few days. However, there is less model support today than yesterday for this occurring, with fewer than 5% of the members of the 00Z Friday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts showing potential tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Invest 94E off the Pacific coast of Mexico may develop
In the Eastern Pacific, satellite loops on Friday morning showed that an area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday morning (Invest 94E) was well-organized with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Friday runs that 94E would develop into a tropical storm or tropical depression over the weekend. The GFS model predicted that this storm would hit the southern portion of the Baja Peninsula on Wednesday, while the other two models predicted that the storm would stay well offshore of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula though the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 70% and 90%, respectively.


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Megi (center) is gathering strength more than 1000 miles west-southwest of Taiwan (upper left), as shown in this enhanced infrared satellite image collected by Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite at 1330Z (9:30 am EDT) Friday, September 23, 2016. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.

Yet another typhoon threat for Taiwan
Tropical Storm Megi is gaining strength in the Northwest Pacific and will be approaching Taiwan as an intensifying typhoon by early next week. The island has already dealt with the close approaches of Super Typhoon Meranti to its southwest (which killed two residents and left nearly a million without power) and Typhoon Malakas to its northeast, and it’s quite possible that Megi will strike the island head on. As of 15Z Friday (11:00 am EDT), Megi was located about 1100 miles east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, moving west-northwest at about 16 mph. Top sustained winds were just 40 mph, but Megi has the potential to become a powerful typhoon. Sea surface temperatures of around 29-30°C (84-86°F) along Megi’s near-term path are at near-record highs--“exceptionally warm,” according to JTWC’s Friday morning update. Wind shear will be very light over the next several days, below 10 knots, and the atmosphere will be fairly moist, with relative humidity of around 70-75% at middle levels of the atmosphere.

Our best track models are in close agreement on an unusually direct path for Megi, continuing west-northwest over the next several days and arriving on or near Taiwan by early Tuesday local time. The 00Z Friday runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models bring a formidable Megi toward south Taiwan, while the 06Z GFS solution is the outlier, aiming a less intense typhoon toward north Taiwan. These are minor differences considering that Megi is still about four days from the island. The Friday morning prediction from JTWC has Megi approaching central Taiwan on Monday night with top sustained winds of at least 105 mph. With a moderate amount of oceanic heat beneath the storm’s path, a period of rapid intensification that would lead to an even stronger Megi can’t be ruled out.

We'll be back with a fresh update by early Saturday afternoon.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 5. WU depiction of Joint Typhoon Warning Center track forecast for Tropical Storm Megi issued on Friday morning, September 23, 2016.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Morning all, almost the same location in both models

DaMblockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 468. Barefootontherocks:

00z runs, 144 hrs out
Euro


GFS


Thank you, Levi Cowan at @tropicaltidbits for the graphics

Future Caribbean AOI coming into sight in the lower right corner.

Quoting 500. barbamz:

Morning has broken in Bermuda, with Karl passing by to the east.

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/


Source/Loop.

Good morning , watched port most of the night, looks like they never lost power. Waiting for Lindy to give us a firsthand account.

504. SLU
A throwback to the great Caribbean Cruisers of the 2000s.


Quoting 460. Bucsboltsfan:

Lo King at least he satellite the wave does have a small but concentrated area of thunderstorms.

BABY MATTHEW  OR MINI MATT

506. SLU
Madeline, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, Matthew?

507. ackee
The GFS track of pre Matthew looks similar to Ivan
wow its just a model . yikes
511. ackee
This will be the first system this season that from around 40 west to the carribbean dry air will not be a big problem plus low wind shear I think this could be the reason why the GFs is so bullish with development

Current recon mission into Karl.


Lots of lightning in Karl.
0z and 6z GFS runs show it continuing wnw towards the northern yucatan before a trough comes in and hooks it NNE into the coast. Makes sense given we are in october. Usually we get storms that hit the eastern gulf because of troughs or move into central america and mexico because of a ridge. Texas and lousiana landfalls, especially from major hurricanes is rare. Looks like a 930-950mb landfall on both runs. Cat 4. Scary
Folks let me put this way Florida has already seen Colin, Hermine, and Julia. A pattern anyone? Also in all 3 cases systems quickly ramped up before approaching FL. This should be of no surprise also the rain has been impressive across Eastern FL since the 1st of August. Heck I'm over 12" for September.

Fact is pattern has favored a FL strike all year and this is why I felt back in August that FL was in for a major strike once October came around.

Up to 50%...



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression
Lisa, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system approaches the
Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Brennan
It's happening......
This trough on the GFS & Euro at day 10 is what allows P39 to turn north. After that is a matter of how strong and how fast it moves toward FL. GFS is showing what could be a CAT 5 in the Gulf after day 10.



518. ackee
The NHC wasting no time wow up to 50%
Quoting 518. ackee:

The NHC wasting no time wow up to 50%


I just came back from Jamaica last week. Many have lost sight of what a hurricane can actually do as many in Jamaica haven't seen a system since Felix in 2006.
Quoting 481. WeatherkidJoe2323:

We should be getting an invest sometime Saturday. Euro came in more aggressive, every major global model now shows development. I've been saying for a few days future Matthew could become a problem with the atmospherics in place once in the Caribbean. The thing working for the system the most is not much dry air ahead, a question is changes in shear how low or high, very warm SSTs the further west it goes and if it slows down to less than 20 mph organization will occur quicker. It's the end of September entering October the time where the strongest systems have formed the last few years and I think we have the same scenario unfolding again.

That is why I said ignore the 12z euro watch trends. If every major model has something confidence is high on development now track and intensity who knows? Too soon to know.
521. ackee
10/50 I wondering if we will see an invest today given the NHC dramatic percentage increase
Models have consistently put a very dangerous and powerful hurricane in the Caribbean. I see nothing to prevent this system from reaching hurricane strength and with many of the runs showing Category 4 or stronger I would not be surprised to see a Wilma or Ivan type storm by the time it reaches the high heat content of the western Caribbean. From there the storm may pose a significant threat to the Yucatan, Cuba, and US Gulf Coast. Storms like Ivan and Charley in terms of intensities come to mind. Folks all hell is going to break lose this upcoming week in the Caribbean. Keep a close eye and I would look over my hurricane plans to make sure everything is in order. Nothing is imminent, the system has not even formed yet, but with this type of model consistency you can't ignore it.
Meranti, Malakas, Megi....is it just coincidence that these Pacific systems were all named starting with the letter M?
524. ackee
Quoting 519. StormTrackerScott:



I just came back from Jamaica last week. Many have lost sight of what a hurricane can actually do as many in Jamaica haven't seen a system since Felix in 2006.
last hurricane to affect us was Sandy in 2012 but mostly eastern parish felt the true effects since 2007 Dean was last major encounter for Jamaica
Quoting 519. StormTrackerScott:



I just came back from Jamaica last week. Many have lost sight of what a hurricane can actually do as many in Jamaica haven't seen a system since Felix in 2006.
Hurricane Sandy 2012 crossed from south to north over Jamaica.
Ok, I've been experiencing something strange on the forum since yesterday. When I refresh to update the comments a lot of the comments show up hidden. I have to click on the "eye" symbol to see the comment. Is anyone else experiencing this? I don't have any ignored users so don't know why this is happening O_o

EDIT: Saw my post and now my comments counter seems to have reset, says I've only made 2 comments in the last year...wth!?
Quoting 526. CW7859:

Ok, I've been experiencing something strange on the forum since yesterday. When I refresh to update the comments a lot of the comments show up hidden. I have to click on the "eye" symbol to see the comment. Is anyone else experiencing this? I don't have any ignored users so don't know why this is happening O_o


Adjust your filter to "Show All" on the right side of the page
Quoting 526. CW7859:

Ok, I've been experiencing something strange on the forum since yesterday. When I refresh to update the comments a lot of the comments show up hidden. I have to click on the "eye" symbol to see the comment. Is anyone else experiencing this? I don't have any ignored users so don't know why this is happening O_o


Check your filter, may have to put it to Show All
Quoting 507. ackee:

The GFS track of pre Matthew looks similar to Ivan
Hush ;)
last notable jamaican landfall was gilbert. none have been close to that doom since.
Quoting 527. Sfloridacat5:



Adjust your filter to "Show All" on the right side of the page
Quoting 528. isothunder67:



Check your filter, may have to put it to Show All


That was the problem, thanks! Something even stranger just happened though, went back to look at my comment again and now it says I've been a member since 1969 O_o;;;;; I guess I've been blogging before I was born....how did I get the laptop in the womb? Things that make you go hmmmm....

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

EDIT: Back to 2015 now but still my comment counter is reset.....guess now I'm a NOOB again :(
532. SLU
Stronger language on the new TWO.
Yesterday people in Texas were getting excited after seeing the 18Z GFS. But I said that solution wasn't very likely with the pattern setup.

A lot can change but with the trough coming down, it really doesn't give a storm anywhere to go but the upper Gulf Coast or Florida. (reminds me a little of the setup prior to Hurricane Wilma)

534. SLU
Quoting 519. StormTrackerScott:



I just came back from Jamaica last week. Many have lost sight of what a hurricane can actually do as many in Jamaica haven't seen a system since Felix in 2006.


Dean 2007, Gustav, 2008 and Sandy 2012 (eastern half of Jamaica)

But yeah, it's been a while.
Quoting 531. CW7859:



That was the problem, thanks! Something even stranger just happened though, went back to look at my comment again and now it says I've been a member since 1969 O_o;;;;; I guess I've been blogging before I was born....how did I get the laptop in the womb? Things that make you go hmmmm....

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

EDIT: Back to 2015 now but still my comment counter is reset.....guess now I'm a NOOB again :(


To get the filter to stay at "Show All" go to your blog page and on the right "Edit Blog Profile". Under "Viewing Comments:" set to Show All and then at the bottom "Update Blog Profile".
Pouch 39L
Wait, wasn't Felix in 2007. 2006 was a relatively quiet season.
Quoting 535. nrtiwlnvragn:



To get the filter to stay at "Show All" go to your blog page and on the right "Edit Blog Profile". Under "Viewing Comments:" set to Show All and then at the bottom "Update Blog Profile".


I just checked the settings and it is already set at show all. My little one likes to play with the keyboard on my comp, and since I leave the window to WU open it must have changed the page display by accident. Now that I know how to change it back, shouldn't be an issue any more. Thanks for the help!
Interesting sadly week, this storm is not going to be a fish and I don't think a poof either. Probably a life threatening event somewhere.

May the force be with you all.
Operational GFS (Yellow-Dashed Red) well to the left of most of the ensemble members:


Quoting 521. ackee:

10/50 I wondering if we will see an invest today given the NHC dramatic percentage increase


Yes I think so I said yesterday we would probably have an invest sometime today, it would be good to get a floater and some models running on it.
Quoting 537. isothunder67:

Wait, wasn't Felix in 2007. 2006 was a relatively quiet season.
Yes, Felix passed through further south than Dean .
Member Since: September 23, 2013
Has been an amazing past 3 years of interacting, learning, and watching storms with everyone.
Quoting 519. StormTrackerScott:



I just came back from Jamaica last week. Many have lost sight of what a hurricane can actually do as many in Jamaica haven't seen a system since Felix in 2006.


Felix was 2007
545. Tcwx2
This setup is remarkably similar to that of Hurricane Opal, in time, strength, position and interaction with a front.
Quoting 507. ackee:

The GFS track of pre Matthew looks similar to Ivan
As long as final landfall is different than Ivan I'm cool with. I hate it for anyone in the path of a storm like that though. I know what it feels like to lose everything. Never want to go through that again
547. JRRP7

Looks like us here in ECFL are in for alot of rain in the coming week. And if pre-Matthew decides to take a track towards Florida more headaches!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Building swells will bring an increasing strong rip current risk
to the local beaches through the weekend...

Current...Nocturnal convective again this past evening has mostly
died out across land, except for an occasional shra/tsra near the
Space/Treasure Coast. Once again, aid for this activity has been
from instability, deep moisture, diffluence aloft, mid-level
vorticity, and numerous outflow boundaries floating around the area.

Today-Tonight...A weak pressure gradient remains across the area
with morning light/variable winds becoming onshore near the coast by
early afternoon with this trend slowly transitioning inland as the
east coast sea breeze develops and slowly moves into the interior.
Aloft, a weak troughing pattern over the southeast U.S. will begin
to retrograde toward the Gulf Coast States, occasionally sending
weak shortwave impulses across the area. A fairly tight deep layer
moisture gradient also continues across ECFL. Areas of the
Space/Treasure Coasts will flirt with PWAT values from 1.80-2.00
inches, while further north and west values are forecast to fall
towards 1.60-1.70 inches. 500mb temperatures are forecast -7.0C to -
8.0C.

Mesoscale models again anticipate a late day collision of the
east/west coast sea breezes across northern Lake County southward
through near the Kissimmee River in Osceola County.

Deepest moisture values combined with greatest forecast diffluence
aloft suggest keeping highest POPs south of Orlando once again
today. Will go with 30 percent chances across the I-4 corridor with
40 to 50 percent southward. Threats continue to be frequent cloud to
ground lightning, brief gusty winds, and torrential downpours
leading to a quick 2 to 3 inch accumulation over a 60 to 90 minute
period. Steering flow will be no more than 5 to 10 mph out of the
southwest or west with some cells showing erratic directional
movement due to late day boundary collisions. A few cells will
likely push off of the Space/Treasure coasts later today and this
evening.

Beachgoers are advised that long period swells (3-5 ft/11-12 sec),
emanating from recurving TC Karl, will increase the risk for
dangerous/strong rip currents at the east central Florida beaches
this weekend. Check with your local beach patrol for ocean hazards.

Winds will again become L/V this evening/overnight. Highs today will
stay persistent with U80s to near 90 degrees along the east coast
and L90s into the interior. Overnight lows keeping in the L-M70s.

Sunday...Moisture profiles will remain similar to recent days with
deepest moisture lingering from Okeechobee county to the Treasure
coast with PWATs from 1.8-1.9 inches. Aloft a mid/upper level low
will elongate near the FL panhandle with light WSW-SW winds at h5
and light southerly flow aloft. Sfc high well north of the area will
allow low level flow to turn onshore albeit fairly light. Will fcst
40-50 pops far srn areas and 30-40 pct across the nrn CWA. Highs
upper 80s coast to around 90 across the interior. Long period swells
from Karl will keep the rip current risk elevated at east central FL
beaches.

Monday...Light onshore flow will veer to the east-southeast in the
afternoon with models progging lower PWATs from Orlando northward
around 1.6 inches and deeper moisture across srn sections once
again. Will keep POPs around 40 percent northern sections mainly
with scattered convection developing in the mid to late afternoon.
Rain chances in the 40-50 percent range across srn sections where
some convection may begin by early afternoon with deeper moisture
present. Highs upper 80s coastal to around 90 for the interior.

Tue-Wed...Low level flow will continue to veer to SW Tuesday and WSW-
W on Wed ahead of an approaching frontal boundary which will move
toward N Fl Tue aftn and the nrn peninsula by Wed evening.
Increasing moisture levels ahead of the front will support mainly
diurnal scattered showers and storms that will last into evening
each day. Will keep POPs in the 40-50 percent range for now.

Thu-Sat...00Z models begin to diverge for late week forecast with
00z GFS latching closer to yesterday`s more progressive ECM solution
which portends sfc high pressure quickly bridging the front late
week turning low lvl flow onshore by Thu afternoon into weekend with
increasing moisture and scattered to numerous Atlantic showers (and
isolated lightning storms) moving onshore to start next weekend.
Will follow closer to GFS solution at this point which is supported
by WPC preference with 00Z ECM looking like an outlier from recent
other global model runs. Will keep rain chances in the scattered
range Thu-Fri and advertise slightly higher POPs by Saturday with
GFS indicate deep moisture entrenched and stronger onshore low level
flow as pressure gradient tightens some. This type of pattern can be
supportive for coastal heavy rain events for ECFL...though since
this is out at Day 6-7 still have plenty of time to refine any
potential for locally heavy rain next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR outside of afternoon/evening convection.
Quoting 537. isothunder67:

Wait, wasn't Felix in 2007. 2006 was a relatively quiet season.


Yes, it was 2007 and was a ways away from Jamaica. I believe it was Dean he was referring to, also 2007.

Felix



Dean



As it approached, Jamaica seemed doomed, but the system did a curious jog around the south coast and most of the extreme weather stayed offshore. They did experience hurricane force winds, however and many homes lost roofs, etc. By and large, the Greater Antilles were spared. Fun storms to track, Dean and then Felix.



Dean stayed roughly 50 miles offshore of Jamaica.
Quoting 547. JRRP7:





What's that down in the East Carribbean? Seems to me HWRF is on board as well. The only thing is HWRF is not a good model until a storm has formed but it is seeing it.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 12.5N 54.0W AT 27/1800Z.
4. REMARKS:
A. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION TODAY AROUND
KARL AT 24/1730Z.
B. THE P-3 WILL A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND KARL
TODAY AT 24/1800Z.
552. bwi
The low-rider is getting more interesting every run.

Get Ready!






DR landfall is most likely at this time.
Quoting 552. bwi:

The low-rider is getting more interesting every run.

Get Ready!


Hopefully nice rains for us in the NE Caribbean
That is the strongest GFS ensemble signal I have seen this year even stronger when a storm had already formed

But if the system is ridiculously tiny, we won't get anything.
558. JRRP7
Quoting 506. SLU:

Madeline, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, Matthew?



that size looks like Gilbert
559. PR51
Quoting 555. CaribBoy:



Hopefully nice rains for us in the NE Caribbean
Not even rains in PR. But hoping that no Trop System hit the Island, because I had 4 days in total blackout... this week.
It's very interesting to see that nobody has posted the latest NAVGEM....





And what about the latest UKM?
Stolen from Twitter






AFD Discussion
Quoting 559. PR51:

Not even rains in PR. But hoping that no Trop System hit the Island, because I had 4 days in total blackout... this week.


Due to rains?
1. Models aren't reliable more than 3 days out
2. They will switch back and forth.
3. No way it's going north.
4. So shut up and just enjoy the images

Some GFS ensemble members.






Quoting 560. CaribBoy:

It's very interesting to see that nobody has posted the latest NAVGEM....





And what about the latest UKM?


Are you nobody? You just posted it.
Quoting 554. Grothar:




At this time I don't think it is likely but do you think it could recurve over the Caribbean islands and out to sea is on the table especially if it is a stronger system?
Quoting 564. Bucsboltsfan:



Are you nobody? You just posted it.


Never mind.
Matthew been taking notes from the W PAC storms
569. SLU
Quoting 557. CaribBoy:

But if the system is ridiculously tiny, we won't get anything.


It won't be.

Models show a large WPAC-type hurricane in the Caribbean so this one could cover lots of acreage.
570. SLU
Quoting 558. JRRP7:


that size looks like Gilbert


Yup. It could be up there with the very best (very worst).
Quoting 565. WeatherkidJoe2323:



At this time I don't think it is likely but do you think it could recurve over the Caribbean islands and out to sea is on the table especially if it is a stronger system?


No, not at this time. The ridge seems to be holding. At this time, almost all models have it going into the Caribbean. I'll be posting the red crayon image soon.
572. PR51
Quoting 562. CaribBoy:



Due to rains?
No... the Electric Power Authority suffered the greatest blackout in 36 years
Quoting 571. Grothar:



No, not at this time. The ridge seems to be holding. At this time, almost all models have it going into the Caribbean. I'll be posting the red crayon image soon.


nooo - not the red crayon image..
Quoting 569. SLU:



It won't be.

Models show a large WPAC-type hurricane in the Caribbean so this one could cover lots of acreage.


So nice if it comes true :)))
575. SLU
Quoting 560. CaribBoy:

It's very interesting to see that nobody has posted the latest NAVGEM....





And what about the latest UKM?


The UKMET makes it a TS east of Barbados then slows it down to a crawl and takes it WSW towards Grenada and ends up just north of Venezuela at day 7.
My next door neighbor's name is Matthew (We call him Mat for short).I assured him that if anything happens he doesn't have to worry about a angry mob outside of his house but I can't make that a promise.
577. SLU
Quoting 574. CaribBoy:



So nice if it comes true :)))


Will be a very interesting storm to track. Haven't had a genuine Caribbean Cruiser since the 2000s. Hurricane Tomas made it to 70W though but turned 90 degrees northwards towards Haiti.
if all most model are showing a strong hurricane in the Caribbean what are model runs showing for wind shear ?

Is this tropical?
Quoting 565. WeatherkidJoe2323:



At this time I don't think it is likely but do you think it could recurve over the Caribbean islands and out to sea is on the table especially if it is a stronger system?


Here is a brief summary. EDIT [add "the inside the red lines also indicate all the possible tracks"]
Quoting 571. Grothar:



No, not at this time. The ridge seems to be holding. At this time, almost all models have it going into the Caribbean. I'll be posting the red crayon image soon.


Thank you yes for sure going into the Caribbean and I do figure if there is a turn north more then likely it will be while in west Caribbean into the gulf given October is when more troughs and fronts like to catch these systems but this might be a system that should not be taken lightly. Lol bring out the red :)
Quoting 560. CaribBoy:

It's very interesting to see that nobody has posted the latest NAVGEM....





And what about the latest UKM?
I wouldnt be surprised if it came to pass..The gfs takes it straight east to west to fast imo but time will tell
Almost all of the Gfs ensembles have this system as a Hurricane in less than 7 days
Quoting 580. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Is this tropical?



it may be ex tropical at that time but would not matter any way has the NHC will keep doing hurricane warnings for it even if it dos be come ex tropical at some point
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
(*not* a forecast) There is historical precedent for TCs entering Caribbean at low latitude & becoming major hurricanes during 9/20-10/10
Hey guys,
I have a question. I'm a every day lurker and sometimes comment. Excuse me for for my cluelessness but where has StormTracker Scott been? He would post every day and I haven't seen him on here in a while. Anyone know?

P.S. I have a feeling this lowrider system could get very interesting especially if it goes into the Carribean. Carriboy looks like you'll get your good rains out of this one and I hope it works out for you!!

Eric
Quoting 585. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Almost all of the Gfs ensembles have this system as a Hurricane in less than 7 days


i think the NHC is following the CMC the GFS the GFS ensembles NAVGEM and the HWFI models that why we have seen a big jump on the tropical weather out look
Quoting 576. washingtonian115:

My next door neighbor's name is Matthew (We call him Mat for short).I assured him that if anything happens he doesn't have to worry about a angry mob outside of his house but I can't make that a promise.

Hehe. I got a neighbour named Karl. Told him some days ago he should do a bit more in the Atl to impress WU-folks. At least he tried.
Quoting 579. thetwilightzone:

if all most model are showing a strong hurricane in the Caribbean what are model runs showing for wind shear ?


It seems to lower before the storm.
Quoting 588. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Hey guys,
I have a question. I'm a every day lurker and sometimes comment. Excuse me for for my cluelessness but where has StormTracker Scott been? He would post every day and I haven't seen him on here in a while. Anyone know?

He was on [edit:] this morning:

Quoting 519. StormTrackerScott:
I just came back from Jamaica last week. Many have lost sight of what a hurricane can actually do as many in Jamaica haven't seen a system since Felix in 2006.
Quoting 581. isothunder67:



Here is a brief summary. EDIT [add "the inside the red lines also indicate all the possible tracks"]


Hazel in 1954 came in low in the Caribbean then made a right hook and slammed into the Carolinas. Long way out on this one but I agree with the cautionary aspect of your map.
Thanks barbamz that explains it lol!

Eric
597. SLU
Quoting 587. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
(*not* a forecast) There is historical precedent for TCs entering Caribbean at low latitude & becoming major hurricanes during 9/20-10/10


Seems to be pretty common.













Quoting 585. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Almost all of the Gfs ensembles have this system as a Hurricane in less than 7 days
Ryan Maue said in a tweet 8 hours ago, that the GFS had indeed complete ensemble support.
00Z Basin Scale HWRF hinting at more than one Atlantic System



The GFS needs to get off the KINGS THRONE and stop being so aggressive. This if true is really going to hurt an awful lot of people's property and grief for a long time!
I notice the change in Tone on Mark Sudduth's latest blog post.
Link
603. SLU
I have lost track.....what Invest number will this system be.....I think it will be INVEST 95L....???
Quoting 600. TampaSpin:

The GFS needs to get off the KINGS THRONE and stop being so aggressive. This if true is really going to hurt an awful lot of people's property and grief for a long time!
yes indeed, and IF this wasn't October coming I would be highly skeptical but October is a dangerous month for anything coming up out of the Caribbean..im waiting for next weekend and IF the models are still in agreement,myself I'm preparing and then wait this out..ive still got my hurricane preps ready and just need to freshen up my supplies,just in case...good luck to any folks who may eventually get in this storms way..stay alert and safe just in case.
606. SLU
Lisa has been a TS for the last 24 hours.
Quoting 604. TampaSpin:

I have lost track.....what Invest number will this system be.....I think it will be INVEST 95L....???
97
Quoting 571. Grothar:



No, not at this time. The ridge seems to be holding. At this time, almost all models have it going into the Caribbean. I'll be posting the red crayon image soon.


Good day folks - took a break while they were sorting out the issues on the blog. and it looks as if they finally have (more or less]. See that we may have a classic "October" system in the Caribbean to be concerned about.

Red crayon definitely should be on order (0Z ECMWF also showing development, just after entering into the Caribbean).



I give up on the image - go to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/CON120NATL_latest .png. There we go, finally noticed that stupid space introduced.
Good Morning!
Ex Julia has cleared out. It is not a problem when the Exes clear out.
06z GFS vs it's ensembles. It looks like they differ with the 06z being more south and west, and into the Eastern Gulf, while the ensembles are northward towards the Bahamas. We will see if 12z GFS keeps course or makes adjustments with it's ensembles.
611. ackee
If the GFS track and intensity comes throught it would be the biggest win for the GFS in some time the model as been showing this for weeks now
Quoting 604. TampaSpin:

I have lost track.....what Invest number will this system be.....I think it will be INVEST 95L....???


97L
Quoting 607. Tornado6042008X:

97


Thanks.....its that old age thing :)
Quoting 606. SLU:

Lisa has been a TS for the last 24 hours.


Yeah...NHC admitted in last night's discussion that it indeed had TS winds, but they did not upgrade it because the system was lacking well-organized deep convection.
Lets not forget that one of the deadliest hurricanes to strike the eastern seaboard made landfall in southeastern NC on Oct 15th....Hazel
616. SLU
Quoting 604. TampaSpin:

I have lost track.....what Invest number will this system be.....I think it will be INVEST 95L....???



nop 95L was KARL

96L was LISA

so next up in line is 97L


i keep track on every invest that pops and what it dos
Untimely upper winds have been a constant story this year........again. Would not be surprised to see our potential Caribbean hurricane hit a few hick ups and develop later in the run across the ocean. One beautiful storm this year, Gaston; here's hoping it stays that way in our basin this year.
Quoting 618. DeepSeaRising:

Untimely upper winds have been a constant story this year........again. Would not be surprised to see our potential Caribbean hurricane hit a few hick ups and develop later in the run across the ocean. One beautiful storm this year, Gaston; here's hoping it stays that way in our basin this year.
\


Do hick ups ride in pickups?
I hope I do not jinx anything but I have noticed no freezes on the blog this morning.
From Hurricane Irene archives Aug 2011....BAHAHA

Quoting leftrightleftright:
WILL DAYTONA BEACH GET ANYTHING OTHER THEN A LITTLE RAIN?


YES
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting 611. ackee:

If the GFS track and intensity comes throught it would be the biggest win for the GFS in some time the model as been showing this for weeks now


Don't count on it.
Quoting 618. DeepSeaRising:

Untimely upper winds have been a constant story this year........again. Would not be surprised to see our potential Caribbean hurricane hit a few hick ups and develop later in the run across the ocean. One beautiful storm this year, Gaston; here's hoping it stays that way in our basin this year.



will see the wind shear map on KARL at the time was way off it showed it had wind shear of 5 too 10 kt too where wind shear was 30 too 40kt

Karl still looks vary good at this time



too show you that this map is 100% wrong karl should be under 30 too 40kt if that was ture then karl should be rip a part by now

so wind shear over karl is march ligher then that this map is showing




that map above can not be trusted has we found out with karl
Wind shear has been terrible in the Caribbean for sometime now. Over the last 2 days it has gotten worse. I'm sorry but to get a storm that the GFS wants us to believe conditions have to be perfect. Ain't now way conditions are going to be perfect in the Caribbean. Something very well may develop but wind shear is foing to be a serious issue. Has been all summer until storms get north of 25.

Good to see that Karl ingested dry air when it was passing Bermuda! Still has a shot at hurricane status, so will be interesting to see whether it reaches it or not.

Looks like models are in really good agreement about 97L/future Matthew. Could be a very dangerous storm. Will be interesting to see the 12z run of the Euro as the 00z run was more in line with the GFS.
Quoting 617. thetwilightzone:




nop 95L was KARL

96L was LISA

so next up in line is 97L


i keep track on every invest that pops and what it dos


Thanks Taz. You really do!
Quoting 620. Tornado6042008X:

I hope I do not jinx anything but I have noticed no freezes on the blog this morning.


For those who missed the good news yesterday:

Quoting 220. BobHenson:

It appears the blog-slowness problem has been fixed. As suspected (see Jeff's comment earlier today], the root cause was a rogue script that was pushing weather summaries into the blog system every minute. That caused those accounts to have very large blog databases, and consequently, each update to those blogs was often too slow. Our WU system admins have removed the rogue script and cleaned house in the databases.

Please let us know if you see problems re-emerging. Otherwise, have a great weekend, and enjoy the conversation once again!
These systems often create their own environment when they are in the Caribbean, which can make them very strong. It appears now that wind shear should lessen quite a bit in the Caribbean. However, (for Newspeak people, "that being said") there is confidence that a trough over the US might turn the system for north into the Gulf after it is in the western Caribbean. At this time, almost all models seem confident of a strong system in the Caribbean next week. Time to grease your F5 buttons.
Quoting 609. K8eCane:

Good Morning!
Ex Julia has cleared out. It is not a problem when the Exes clear out.


Well....it is if they take the dog. It looks like the models are turning (a potential) 97L to turn more north once it reaches the caribbean.... I am interpreting this correctly?
Quoting 624. Bucsboltsfan:

Wind shear has been terrible in the Caribbean for sometime now. Over the last 2 days it has gotten worse. I'm sorry but to get a storm that the GFS wants us to believe conditions have to be perfect. Ain't now way conditions are going to be perfect in the Caribbean. Something very well may develop but wind shear is foing to be a serious issue. Has been all summer until storms get north of 25.




Storms can develop anti-cyclones above them which produces a favourable environment and essentially "pushes" shear away from them. That's what most of the models are predicting to happen. Not to mention that shear can change very quickly if it wants to.
Good morning from sunny Antigua.
Quoting 628. Grothar:

These systems often create their own environment when they are in the Caribbean, which can make them very strong. It appears now that wind shear should lessen quite a bit in the Caribbean. However, (for Newspeak people, "that being said") there is confidence that a trough over the US might turn the system for north into the Gulf after it is in the western Caribbean. At this time, almost all models seem confident of a strong system in the Caribbean next week. Time to grease your F5 buttons.


The GROWRF has spoken. But seriously, that's worrying. Could be a nasty storm for many people, something we haven't seen in a while.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h
Hurricane Rita made landfall on this date in 2005 as a Category 3 hurricane in southwest LA. Over 100 fatalities and $12 billion damage.
is that future Nicole behind 97.

Quoting 588. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Hey guys,
I have a question. I'm a every day lurker and sometimes comment. Excuse me for for my cluelessness but where has StormTracker Scott been? He would post every day and I haven't seen him on here in a while. Anyone know?

P.S. I have a feeling this lowrider system could get very interesting especially if it goes into the Carribean. Carriboy looks like you'll get your good rains out of this one and I hope it works out for you!!

Eric
Hes's on my ignore list so I wouldn't know.
636. JRRP7
Quoting 597. SLU:



Seems to be pretty common.

>



or this
637. JLPR2
The GFS's ensembles go from 10N to 15N in the E-Carib, so a lot of uncertainty.



But I think this is the most agreement on development I have seen in them this year.
We know shear changes and is not well predictable more than a day or two out. Shear map is not an absolute and is at times absolutely wrong. We advance in measurements of ever larger steps. To the point we've missed and or given up on the important ones in a larger sense. So Taz, I agree about said map; it's been annoying the NHC too. Using the best technology and self think they have. It's not a perfect science. For the most part, last three years though, shear maps have been very accurate in the Caribbean, Gulf, and Eastern Seaboard. Amazingly so.
Quoting 628. Grothar:

These systems often create their own environment when they are in the Caribbean, which can make them very strong. It appears now that wind shear should lessen quite a bit in the Caribbean. However, (for Newspeak people, "that being said") there is confidence that a trough over the US might turn the system for north into the Gulf after it is in the western Caribbean. At this time, almost all models seem confident of a strong system in the Caribbean next week. Time to grease your F5 buttons.
this could be..one very dangerous storm huh Gro..
Quoting 593. Grothar:








You posted the 00z NAVGEM with the 6z GFS. The 6z NAVGEM would be more appropriate instead of the 00z one, don't you think? :)
Quoting 624. Bucsboltsfan:

Wind shear has been terrible in the Caribbean for sometime now. Over the last 2 days it has gotten worse. I'm sorry but to get a storm that the GFS wants us to believe conditions have to be perfect. Ain't now way conditions are going to be perfect in the Caribbean. Something very well may develop but wind shear is foing to be a serious issue. Has been all summer until storms get north of 25.





See post 623
Quoting 624. Bucsboltsfan:

Wind shear has been terrible in the Caribbean for sometime now. Over the last 2 days it has gotten worse. I'm sorry but to get a storm that the GFS wants us to believe conditions have to be perfect. Ain't now way conditions are going to be perfect in the Caribbean. Something very well may develop but wind shear is foing to be a serious issue. Has been all summer until storms get north of 25.




Send that storm to the N Leewards, where the shear is light ;)
Just remember the models has Karl becoming a Major Hurricane at one time..Alot can change especially with this new system thats forcasted to form
Quoting 636. JRRP7:


or this



where do you find these images? I do not see them on trop tidbits
Good morning

I have been watching the progression of the models for several days now in relation to what is expected to become 97L and eventually a hurricane trekking through the Caribbean next week. NHC odds are now 50% 5 days out and model consistency coupled with that means it is time to begin paying closer attention to the model scenarios .

The GFS does very little with intensification between 60 W and approximately 70 W which would be consistent with climatology in the Eastern Caribbean. Intensity only goes down by a few mbs and then the real deepening begins around 75 and beyond. Again, this is very plausible save that the models ( and the NHC at times ) tend to be too conservative with intensity forecasts in the NW Caribbean. 959 mbs near the Yucatan channel ( GFS ) may well be on the high side, assuming we get a hurricane in that area. The NW Caribbean with its very high TCHP always seems to pull intensity surprises.

What is of particular interest is that both the Euro and GFS place a `974 and 973 mb hurricane within 50 miles of each others position on Oct 4th, although the Euro is faster to that position by 18 hours. The Euro is just North of the Nicaragua/ Honduras border and the GFS about 50 miles farther North of that just below Grand Cayman.

This is remarkable consistency between these two models and that is what has caught my attention in particular. Whether this unfolds remains to be seen but it is certainly intriguing.
CaribBoy take it easy the NavGem tha you want is still running.


Quoting 640. CaribBoy:



You posted the 00z NAVGEM with the 6z GFS. The 6z NAVGEM would be more appropriate instead of the 00z one, don't you think? :)
Quoting 637. JLPR2:

The GFS's ensembles go from 10N to 15N in the E-Carib, so a lot of uncertainty.



But I think this is the most agreement on development I have seen in them this year.


Absolutely. Every single ensemble member shows a tropical cyclone in roughly the same position in that time frame.
Quoting 647. ETFRIEND:

CaribBoy take it easy the NavGem tha you want is still running.





Ok, sorry.
Quoting 642. CaribBoy:



Send that storm to the N Leewards, where the shear is light ;)


Not gonna happen. Going to stay well south of you.
I can't wait when models will start coming out 1 hour early again when Daylight Saving Time ends.
Quoting 648. CybrTeddy:



Absolutely. Every single ensemble member shows a tropical cyclone in roughly the same position in that time frame.


156h out. As we saw with Karl, it is very likely to change.
Quoting 651. Bucsboltsfan:



Not gonna happen. Going to stay well south of you.


Hopefully you enjoy watching naked swirls.
655. beell
Quoting 624. Bucsboltsfan:

Wind shear has been terrible in the Caribbean for sometime now. Over the last 2 days it has gotten worse. I'm sorry but to get a storm that the GFS wants us to believe conditions have to be perfect. Ain't now way conditions are going to be perfect in the Caribbean. Something very well may develop but wind shear is foing to be a serious issue. Has been all summer until storms get north of 25.




Maybe, maybe not.


06Z GFS 200 mb streamlines @ 198 hrs

This is what perfect looks like.
It's a hard job to be alone against the "rest of the world"... but you can't say anything with certainty past 72h.

(Click) Broad supply of moisture from Africa.
Quoting 655. beell:



Maybe, maybe not.


06Z GFS 200 mb winds @ 198 hrs



I guess we have to trust the models then.
Quoting 657. barbamz:


(Click) Broad supply of moisture from Africa.


And SAL to the north. Unfortunately.
Quoting 654. CaribBoy:



Hopefully you enjoy watching naked swirls.


No, I love watching hurricanes. I just don't want the death and destruction caused by them. I saw first hand what Charlie did to Punta Gorda and I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression
Lisa, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system approaches the
Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forec
aster Brennan
Quoting 659. CaribBoy:
And SAL to the north. Unfortunately.

True. Maybe "fortunately".


Current.


In five days.

Source with a button for an animation.
664. SLU
Fasten your seatbelts

Quoting 663. barbamz:



Current.


In five days.

Source with a button for an animation.



Oh my please no.
Quoting 664. SLU:

Fasten your seatbelts




Why? Am i missing something happening tomorrow?
667. beell
Quoting 658. Bucsboltsfan:



I guess we have to trust the models then.


You know better than that!
:)
Quoting 637. JLPR2:

The GFS's ensembles go from 10N to 15N in the E-Carib, so a lot of uncertainty.



But I think this is the most agreement on development I have seen in them this year.


I agree posted that earlier this morning
GFS time already
Quoting 664. SLU:

Fasten your seatbelts

It's time for an invest, I think.
672. SLU
Quoting 670. barbamz:


It's time for an invest, I think.


Yes. There is already a broad LLC.
Quoting 670. barbamz:


It's time for an invest, I think.


Interesting that we have something designated at 50% by the NHC and not yet an invest.
Thank You my friend, yes Spanish is my first language.


Quoting 671. stormwatcherCI:

This may get me banned but you do realize English is not everyone's first language. I am sure you understood what he/she meant.
60 hrs, coming in due West.
676. SLU
Becomes at TD at 12z Tuesday

Similar 12z GFS through 78 hours as this morning due west it goes
678. beell
Quoting 675. Climate175:

60 hrs, coming in due West.


Summer is over. A regular procession of strong mid-latitude troughs sweeping east-pushing the ST ridge in the western Atlantic south. Westward-ho is probably the closest to a sure thing so far.
Quoting 678. beell:



Summer is over. A regular procession of strong mid-latitude troughs sweeping east-pushing the ST ridge in the western Atlantic south. Westward-ho is probably the closest to a sure thing so far.
I know, but what I did there was a bit of a joke, to sound like a Air Traffic Controller, lol.
super hi-rez image of the situation off Africa .... all the dust shows up nicely as well. Allow me one wish cast - Hope we all have nice days next week.
Link
We are all ready for 97L and the goodies that go along with it.
Link Shortwave Loop
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 15N23W to 04N23W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted
by global guidance and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Cloudiness and
isolated showers are observed in the wave's environment between
00N-13N. This disturbance is expected to move rapidly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form while
the system approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
Although I speak with the ability of a native speaker, I didn't speak and write well in English until I was 6 or 7. My folks were interested in me learning their native languages. It was a struggle but I'm glad they kept at it.

Quoting 656. CaribBoy:

It's a hard job to be alone against the "rest of the world"... but you can't say anything with certainty past 72h.
Unless the model is pointing at you.
Pressure was going back and forth between 1007 to 1009mb before it gets to the Lesser Antilles, once it passes it, the intensifying really gets going.
Quoting 639. LargoFl:

this could be..one very dangerous storm huh Gro..
When aint there a trough, when a storm is heading into the Gulf ? It has never failed.
Quoting 683. luvtogolf:


Unless the model is pointing at you.


ABSLOLUTELY, without question, on this blog lol
I'm just here for the models this weekend my fellow bloggers. Thanks for the updates! I hope you all have a great weekend!
Thank You my friend, yes Spanish is my first language. (ETFRIEND)

Quoting 682. ElConando:

Although it I speak with the ability of a native speaker, I didn't speak and write well in English until I was 6 or 7. My folks were interested in me learning their native languages. It was a struggle but I'm glad they kept at it.


I have always admired folks who are multi-lingual. My late father spoke English, French, a fair amount of German, Russian, and ancient Greek and Latin for the creation of new words to describe his novel ideas. I only speak English and a little French, but I am very Cosmopolitan!
GFS weaker through 5 days compared to 6z but continues to strengthen after
GFS coming in 20 mlb. weaker, but still a very dangerous storm. Looks like the storm is still moving west as the 06Z was starting to move WNW at this time frame.
lol
Quoting 693. Gearsts:

lol



too low for a trough to catch
At Cat 3 at this point.
952 is more like a cat 3 hurricane.
Quoting 628. Grothar:

These systems often create their own environment when they are in the Caribbean, which can make them very strong. It appears now that wind shear should lessen quite a bit in the Caribbean. However, (for Newspeak people, "that being said") there is confidence that a trough over the US might turn the system for north into the Gulf after it is in the western Caribbean. At this time, almost all models seem confident of a strong system in the Caribbean next week. Time to grease your F5 buttons.
That being said, more than the F5 issue, if in fact the blog comment functionality proves to be still inconsistent, there could be significant negative impacts on the blog itself. I hope that this will not be the case.
update from the ministry of propaganda, tampa shields are currently operating at 100% nothing to worry about here, folks
Some of the GFS ensemble models





Quoting 698. washingtonian115:

952 is more like a cat 3 hurricane.

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars
Yea.
Guys...is it indeed possible Could be a cat-5 the gulf. or no?
Quoting 655. beell:



Maybe, maybe not.


06Z GFS 200 mb streamlines @ 198 hrs

This is what perfect looks like.



I was going to post similar in response, but thought, nah. lol. Pretty good divergence. ;)
Kman- Good observations & well noted .Anyway you look at the current set-up, I think it is safe to say that intensity aside, our area could come under some significant threat beyond the middle of next week . Just where that ends up being is the outlier at this early stage. Still...we have been here before?

Quoting 646. kmanislander:

Good morning

Quoting 695. K8eCane:



too low for a trough to catch


Nope, gaining latitude. Consistency is concerning.
709. JRRP7
Quoting 703. LargoFl:

Guys...is it indeed possible Could be a cat-5 the gulf. or no?


Anything is possible or we can have another naked swirl it all depends on what they want to do.
Quoting 698. washingtonian115:

952 is more like a cat 3 hurricane.


GFS still showing a low riding monster, it will be the first in a long time in the Caribbean
Quoting 699. JNFlori30A:

That being said, more than the F5 issue, if in fact the blog comment functionality proves to be still inconsistent, there could be significant negative impacts on the blog itself. I hope that this will not be the case.


At the end of the day,, we'll find out. Just vet this carefully.
Quoting 710. frank727:



Anything is possible or we can have another naked swirl it all depends on what they want to do.
ok thanks
714. beell
Quoting 695. K8eCane:



too low for a trough to catch


Just maybe, from that point, coriolis/beta drift, and a stronger system will begin a turn to the west/northwest and track toward the periphery of the mid-level ridge farther north. If that were to occur-a trough will catch it and bring it north.... somewhere between the western gulf and Florida, lol.


GFS has a cat 4 lifting north towards Jamaica.If I were them I would start to monitor forecast.Wouldn't panic just yet though.
If this Cloud IR SAT came to be correct, would cover almost all of the Eastern and Central Caribbean.
718. JLPR2
Quoting 715. washingtonian115:

GFS has a cat 4 lifting north towards Jamaica.If I were them I would start to monitor forecast.Wouldn't panic just yet though.



Way too early, the models can and will change in 192hrs. The ones that should start to monitor the forecasts are the residents of the Lesser Antilles.
I don't think I've seen the GFS IR soo symmetrical with a storm... This is impressive.
Quoting 588. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Hey guys,
I have a question. I'm a every day lurker and sometimes comment. Excuse me for for my cluelessness but where has StormTracker Scott been? He would post every day and I haven't seen him on here in a while. Anyone know?

Scotty runs his own blog, for his postings are not always appreciated, i.e. understood here.
Quoting 718. JLPR2:



Way too early, the models can and will change in 192hrs. The ones that should start to monitor the forecasts are the residents of the Lesser Antilles.
That's why I said they shouldn't panic.Just check in to the forecast over the next couple of days and stay aware.I know things can and will change.
Quoting 715. washingtonian115:

GFS has a cat 4 lifting north towards Jamaica.If I were them I would start to monitor forecast.Wouldn't panic just yet though.

This will be the 4th consecutive run that the Gfs shows this system making a direct hit against Jamaica. Worrisome at least 9 days from here and it will almost certainly change.
Quoting 718. JLPR2:



Way too early, the models can and will change in 192hrs. The ones that should start to monitor the forecasts are the residents of the Lesser Antilles.



Surely they should but imma watch it too and I'm in Wilmington NC
12Z UKMET





NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N 55.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 96 12.5N 57.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 29.09.2016 108 13.1N 59.8W 1003 41
1200UTC 29.09.2016 120 13.2N 63.1W 998 52
0000UTC 30.09.2016 132 13.0N 65.8W 990 61
1200UTC 30.09.2016 144 12.5N 67.3W 987 58
Surprised I have not seen WKC on this morning. As for me, IF it pans out like it is basically showing I am beginning to get a bit nervous.
Pressure down to 930mb, now heading towards into the Western Caribbean, size remains massive.
918mb.
729. ackee
GFS stinking to guns similar track this is getting more serious in sense let see what the euro will do
Notice the GFS trending considerably weaker before the islands the past two runs? Hasn't affected the end result much, yet, but watch that trend, because if it goes much further we'll see larger changes at longer ranges on the model. In other words, don't be surprised if we see a big shift on the GFS soon related to the wave developing later.

Don't mistake this as "downcasting" or me saying a storm can't/won't happen. What that one model shows is irrelevant. My point is, we have to see where it decides to start developing, if it does at all, because that will greatly impact the end result. FWIW, the 12z CMC, on the other hand, is much stronger than last night's run by the time the wave gets to the islands; it shows a well developed cyclone by then. UKMET looks like it is on board as well based on nrt's post. Definitely one to watch, but definitely not one to panic over at this point.
Well this developing system is certainly something to keep an eye on. Hurricanes are fairly common in October in the Western Caribbean. I really hope that this will not be as intense as some of the models are showing, but once the system forms and the NHC has the track people in the cone need to look over their hurricane plans carefully.


Quoting 644. HurriHistory:



(Interesting sadly week) Keep your day job. I don't think writing is your forte.


Dude seriously take your condescending attitude and take a hike. We are discussing a serious potential storm and you come on here attacking people over grammar. Hopefully your commenting privileges on here will be Hurri HISTORY haha see what I did there
GFS has the storm hitting the Yucatan, should weaken it quite a bit, and maybe turn this west again.
Quoting 717. Climate175:

If this Cloud IR SAT came to be correct, would cover almost all of the Eastern and Central Caribbean.
I will keep an eye, here in Puerto Rico, just in case, those ULL coming down in early fall, can lift it, northward a bit, if it is an strong system ...
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 10m
The 12Z CMC run now shows development before the Lesser Antilles. Earlier versus its previous runs. Agreed W/GFS
Final Conclusion for 12ZGFS - Mexico bound!!
737. ackee
I think the GFS forecast thow scary its not out of weck it been long time we have not seen any dry air and Africa dust so weak heat index in the carrbbean is off the chart we here Jamaica will be keeping a very close eye on this it look like Ivan part 2 in October from future Matthew
Totally different track in the gom.
740. ackee
Cmc ukmet and Gfs all develop this into a Strom before reaching the eastern carrbbean the cmc run is funny it show the Strom almost dancing between Cuba and Jamaica
Quoting 730. washingtonian115:




Rapid weakening in the W. Carib for a Cat 5 storm (918mb in previous frame))? Little unlikely.

This general solution still makes your hair stand on end.
so we should have a better idea where this is going by around this coming Thursday or so..GFS has indeed been saying this WILL form for over a week or more..what has changed is where it finally comes ashore in the states...each day, it changes....only constant is..it does indeed form in the Caribbean.
743. JLPR2
Quoting 734. HuracanTaino:

I will keep an eye, here in Puerto Rico, just in case, those ULL coming down in early fall, can lift it, northward a bit, if it is an strong system ...


Keeping an eye on it, though I'm not going to loose sleep over it. :P

One never knows how things will end up happening for real.
12Z GFS the system beats the trough so it continues to the west. It's all going to come down to the timing of the trough dropping down.
12Z really slows down the trough, which allows the system to stay to the south.

Big difference when compared with the 06Z GFS (as far as the timing of the trough).
In the 06z, the trough was much faster coming down into the GOM, thus pulling the system up towards Florida.
745. Kyon5
Quoting 741. ProPoly:



Rapid weakening in the W. Carib for a Cat 5 storm (918mb in previous frame))? Little unlikely.

This general solution still makes your hair stand on end.
It didn't weaken it. Images after 240 hours lose resolution which is why it shows the jump in pressure.
Quoting 726. stormwatcherCI:

Surprised I have not seen WKC on this morning. As for me, IF it pans out like it is basically showing I am beginning to get a bit nervous.
he is here watching the runs just not sayin much

🌎
Quoting 741. ProPoly:



Rapid weakening in the W. Carib for a Cat 5 storm (918mb in previous frame))? Little unlikely.

This general solution still makes your hair stand on end.


The model loses resolution after 240 hours so keep that in mind it didn't weaken at all!!
Potential Matthew really starting to catch my attention now. If you go by those GFS runs, looks like an Ivan type storm. Of course with all the times I/we have been burned with false alarms- definitely not buying that scenario yet.
Lotsa go fever for not being even a invest yet.




Quoting 731. MAweatherboy1:

Notice the GFS trending considerably weaker before the islands the past two runs? Hasn't affected the end result much, yet, but watch that trend, because if it goes much further we'll see larger changes at longer ranges on the model. In other words, don't be surprised if we see a big shift on the GFS soon related to the wave developing later.

Don't mistake this as "downcasting" or me saying a storm can't/won't happen. What that one model shows is irrelevant. My point is, we have to see where it decides to start developing, if it does at all, because that will greatly impact the end result. FWIW, the 12z CMC, on the other hand, is much stronger than last night's run by the time the wave gets to the islands; it shows a well developed cyclone by then. UKMET looks like it is on board as well based on nrt's post. Definitely one to watch, but definitely not one to panic over at this point.
The intensity of the latest CMC run seems reliable with the potential storm. You can even look 3-5 days before saturday the 24th where it expected Karl and Lisa as well as the intensity.
Quoting 741. ProPoly:



Rapid weakening in the W. Carib for a Cat 5 storm (918mb in previous frame))? Little unlikely.

This general solution still makes your hair stand on end.


Depends, it could be undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle, which often happens for powerful systems. It would also explain why it expands in size. Of course that's way out there. What we can reliably say is that an intensifying tropical storm is likely to affect the lesser antilles in about 3-4 days time.
Quoting 728. Climate175:

918mb.


That area west of Jamaica to the tip of Cuba is known as the Cat 5 Generator. Those hot pools of water have in the past have created more Cat 5 Hurricanes than anywhere else in the Atlantic region.
754. beell
Quoting 747. Patrap:


🌎


A bit of dust ingestion for the eastern Atlantic wave.
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 3m
UKMET also develops #Matthew prior to impacting the islands next week. EURO is the lone holdout on dev within 5 days
The reason why it hits Mexico is because the first trough isn't far enough south. Ridge builds back in and 2nd trough doesn't come until it's making landfall in mainland Mexico. Timing issue. My bet is ensembles will be in eastern gulf
Quoting 755. washingtonian115:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 3m
UKMET also develops #Matthew prior to impacting the islands next week. EURO is the lone holdout on dev within 5 days


12Z Euro should be interesting - the 00z trended towards the GFS/UKMET solution. I believe the 12z Euro will be running in 15 minutes?
Quoting 726. stormwatcherCI:

Surprised I have not seen WKC on this morning. As for me, IF it pans out like it is basically showing I am beginning to get a bit nervous.


Hello mate

I've been here kinda in and out
Yes I'm very concerned about this

It's gonna be a busy and long week and weekend ahead of us
Sure can see that dust billowing off Africa bell..


..sure as the dust,lifts high in June,...when moving thru Kashmir'.....


🌍 🌞
760. beell


Quoting 714. beell:



Just maybe, from that point, coriolis/beta drift, and a stronger system will begin a turn to the west/northwest and track toward the periphery of the mid-level ridge farther north. If that were to occur-a trough will catch it and bring it north.... somewhere between the western gulf and Florida, lol.



How dare you make such coherent, science based comments here? Do you not understand that this is about the next model run and adding really hyperbolic adjectives followed by 3 exclamations points to it?. Get with the program young man! ;-)
763. JRRP7
Ensembles shift south
Quoting 757. Envoirment:



12Z Euro should be interesting - the 00z trended towards the GFS/UKMET solution. I believe the 12z Euro will be running in 15 minutes?
It comes out at around 1:45p.m.So another 22 minutes.
765. ackee
Quoting 755. washingtonian115:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 3m
UKMET also develops #Matthew prior to impacting the islands next week. EURO is the lone holdout on dev within 5 days Euro is normally sort slow to latch on development let see if it will fall in line 12z
Quite often, systems create their own environment and can isolate themselves from dry air and even wind shear. There is a lot of moisture to work with

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Current GFS track the same as Hurricane Gilbert.  Wait and see.
good to see the blog working again with some normality. Taiwan looks to be hammered again, no ones talking Megi right now for possibly good reason but currently seems to be dealing with some dry air. Massive storm however if this thing gets its act together, which it likely will, won't be surprised to see another Cat 5 in the Pacific.
770. vis0
From now on i add my timestamp:: clicking post at 1:12PM EDT. on my #8th click...A notice for GROTHAR (presenter of the official UNOFFICIAL INFOTAINMENT weather NETWORK) observe the circle of blips Senegal - The Gambia - Sierra Leone - Liberia - Togo - Nigeria  - Niger these were the last formations to touch the northen edge of Sudan at 500 mb with more than 40% moisture at that level and ~15% more "girth" than what become 2016Lisa-
 
 
Why INFOTAINMENT?
 
One learns best with a lite sprinkle of humour.
 
In other words the mind learn best when presenting intelligence with a hint of levity.
 
why? (my theory)
 
Remember the new idea comes through a healthy balance of study and imagination.
Humour is the bridge from reality to imagination as one has to use real life situations to create something,
 
funny and those listening to the joke/humour have to imagine (paint the story) through there own experiences.  Laughter is a form of air conditioning for body/brain so mind cools off a bit enough to think a bit further.
 
The best writers like Dr. Masters needs not add humour to "paint a picture" but a good balance is Mr. Henson whom at times adds a bit of humour to Mr. Hensons more numeric presentations.
 
Grothar does this, sar2401 does this (though i think sar2401s humour is more drier and some don't get that) a few others on this blog have that talent.
 
i'm more towards toilet humour being i never read a book (NOT A GOOD THING, 60% my fault, 40% the fault of those (politicians) taking money (arts/science) from public schools from 1971 though 1978.  i never had a school book that was within 7 years of the latest edition so have very little of the latest knowledge and since children learn best through examples they figure if the adults don't give a **** then we'll draw **** inside those books.
 
So kids/youngsters don't make the same error, READ and read thouroughly if you don't understand something look it up on the OFFICIAL dictionary site then read again that sentence several times.
 
 
For those that become upset at unofficial alerts they are a teaching tool when done with an explanation (GROTHAR states why GROTHAR thinks a certain formation of clouds has or has not the chance to build and levity (BLOBS, BLOBETTS).  Two to three days later the NHC picks up on that formation IF NEED Be so GROTHAR keeps the mind's cogs oiled (yes that's why yer nose is leaking) and on the side gets newbies that would only stay if storm where a catDOOM but stay to read what GROTHAR, Bahahu, barbamz, pureete1948, patrap, sar2401 (i think 30 more days left to finish the 80 days round the world excursion), keeps, TWI, santa claus (just covering my bases), Dakster, justmeHou, pablosyn, GT,  red and others
 
i said levity NOT gawfawing (for Don Martin fans)
Quoting 750. Patrap:

Lotsa go fever for not being even a invest yet.






Invoco tempestum magnum.
xx/xx/xx
Quoting 763. JRRP7:

Ensembles shift south


:(
new blog