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TD Karl Headed Towards Bermuda; Record Rains in Norfolk From Julia's Remnants

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2016

A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the island of Bermuda, as Tropical Depression Karl steams northwest towards the island at 17 mph. Karl continues to remain disorganized due to moderate wind shear of 15 knots, but the shear is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, on Friday. This may allow Karl to strengthen enough to spread tropical storm-force winds to Bermuda before the storm turns to the northeast and moves away from the island on Saturday.

In the eastern Atlantic, there is not much new to say about Tropical Storm Lisa. Lisa is headed to the northwest into an area of high wind shear and dry air, which should be able to destroy this unimpressive 50-mph tropical storm by Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Karl.

Two Atlantic threat areas to watch next week
A medium-sized tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday morning had a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but not very much spin. This wave is too close to the equator (near 8°N) to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire enough spin of its own to develop into a tropical depression, and is not likely to develop through this weekend as it heads west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. However, the tropical wave may move far enough from the equator to be able to develop by early next week, when it reaches a point about halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. About 30% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Thursday GFS ensemble showed this wave developing between Monday and Wednesday, and about 10% of the 50 members of the European model ensemble did so. This system is likely to move through the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday or as late as Friday of next week.

A cold front will move into Texas on Monday, and potentially stall offshore of Texas on Tuesday. A tropical depression could spin up along the tail end of this cold front over the Bay of Campeche, a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Texas/Mexico border, by the middle of next week. However, fewer than 10% of the members of the 00Z Thursday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts showed this occurring.

Invest 94E off the Pacific coast of Mexico may develop
In the Eastern Pacific, satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that an area of low pressure about 850 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula (Invest 94E) was increasing in organization and heavy thunderstorm activity, and this storm has the potential to develop into tropical depression this weekend. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—predicted in their 00Z Thursday runs that 94E would develop into a tropical storm or tropical depression, but that this storm would stay well offshore of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula though the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 70% and 90%, respectively.


Figure 2. Precipitation analyzed for the 7-day period ending at 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Thursday, September 22, 2016. Widespread 10-15” totals have occurred over southeast VA and northeast NC since Monday in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Julia. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Julia’s remnants feed massive rains across Hampton Roads area
A slow-moving slug of atmospheric moisture associated with former Tropical Storm Julia took up residence this week across the Mid-Atlantic. Together with a lingering front, the moisture has fueled several days of heavy rainfall in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Preliminary rainfall totals for the period from Sunday through Wednesday night included 13.73” near the Kempsville area of Virginia Beach, VA. By and large, the rains have been prolonged but not extremely intense, producing mainly widespread road closures.

The hardest-hit metropolitan area is Hampton Roads, VA, including Norfolk and Portsmouth. In the 72 hours ending at midnight Wednesday night, Norfolk International Airport picked up 9.35” of rain. That includes three consecutive days of daily-record precipitation: 3.04” on Monday, 2.38” on Tuesday, and 3.93” on Wednesday. As noted by Capital Weather Gang, this is the only instance of three consecutive daily precipitation records in Norfolk data going back to 1874, according to local weathercaster Tim Pandajis. The city’s wettest September--13.80”--occurred in 1979, when Norfolk experienced deluges from Hurricane David as well as a tropical depression later that month. As of this morning, Norfolk’s total for this September was up to around 13”. With showers still in the area today, the September 1979 record is in striking distance.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Update; while the African wave has a very long way to go, it is already trying to develop that "shrimp" look; albeit a very tiny shrimp larvae at this early stage in the game............................................




Thanks for the updates.... Gentlemen
Huracane George
Dry, dry, dry... Out west that is...
Thanx for the update. Will be watching the BOC and southern gulf.
Gentlemen, Thanks!
Cabo Verde Season should but closed for business after next week.
LOL!
thanks doc
Cabo Verde season should be over after next week according to climatology.
It would be fun if the blog worked

Major fire event in Peruvian Amazon threatens natives and wildlifeLink
Whenever the blog hole ends again, the 12Z UKMET is on board for the new system:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 114 : 13.0N 49.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2016 120 13.6N 51.1W 1008 29
0000UTC 28.09.2016 132 14.4N 54.8W 1005 36
1200UTC 28.09.2016 144 14.3N 59.3W 1002 49


Quoting 10. GainesvilleGator:

Cabo Verde season should be over after next week according to climatology.


not sure anyone actually knows anymore. key word is climatology.
Thanks for the update, hope this blog stays up and running...
Deadly floods and landslides hit West Java overnight, Indonesia

Link
Dr. Masters...Any word on the issues with the blogs performance? Are they addressing the issue?

TIA.

19. JRRP
12Z is interesting. We have a blocking low pressure north of Bermuda, a Hurricane exiting PR, and low pressure digging towards the Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 21. Felix2007:




Is this supposed to be the 'lowrider' from runs a few days ago?
Quoting 1. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the Update; while the African wave has a very long way to go, it is already trying to develop that "shrimp" look; albeit a very tiny shrimp larvae at this early stage in the game............................................





You're making me crave some cajun or blackened shrimp for lunch. :D
LOLWUT? 931 to 966 in 12 hours??
How we go from 931 mlb to 966 mlb in one frame? Deff an interesting run. Taking it northeast towards a blocking ridge.
An out to sea scenario in October is the most likely scenario. Once these strong ridges are placed in the USA, the only threats come from the south, not from the east.
Quoting 18. Abacosurf:

Dr. Masters...Any word on the issues with the blogs performance? Are they addressing the issue?

TIA.




ditto for the wundermap
LOL, I counted 17 lows on this run of the "Constantly Making Cyclones" model.

The next system is liking the OTC scenario.
Quoting 11. VAbeachhurricanes:

It would be fun if the blog worked




Not in la-la land anymore. GFS likes this idea.
GFS moves it into the Maritimes as a Monster!
Quoting 22. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is this supposed to be the 'lowrider' from runs a few days ago?

Yes, except now the GFS has it at a higher latitude to begin with.
RIP Nova Scotia if this came true
gfs...ouch...
Very good agreement among the ensemble members of the GFS showing a tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean and we have an actual disturbance to track now.

its not going ots.
Quoting 33. Felix2007:

RIP Nova Scotia if this came true


they're in a very severe drought and could use the rain. Mandatory water restrictions are happening across Nova Scotia.
Quoting 35. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Very good agreement among the ensemble members of the GFS showing a tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean and we have an actual disturbance to track now.


it will be interesting to see what the Euro does It been while since a hurricane move into the eastern carribbean
Thunderstorms developing over Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.

Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

LOL, I counted 17 lows on this run of the "Constantly Making Cyclones" model.


crazy the CMC needs to be upgraded
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Karl, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is expected
to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to
25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
0/20% for the wave. Hopefully invest soon.
Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

LOL, I counted 17 lows on this run of the "Constantly Making Cyclones" model.




Maybe the CMC is just a fan of Lil John and the East Side Boyz?
Quoting 24. Felix2007:

LOLWUT? 931 to 966 in 12 hours??


GFS loses resolution after 240 hours.
Quoting 35. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Very good agreement among the ensemble members of the GFS showing a tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean and we have an actual disturbance to track now.




Hopefully not much struggle with dry air..
46. bwi
Couple things about the potential low-rider wave/storm.

First, GFS at least is still showing some lows forming behind it, so maybe Cape Verde season not as over as the seasonality would indicate?
Second, look at the low ENE of Bermuda -- according to 12zGFS, that low comes straight south from Newfoundland and then stalls out, possibly affecting steering on the low rider. Very strange -- I can't remember seeing that sort of movement on a north Atlantic low pressure.

Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

LOL, I counted 17 lows on this run of the "Constantly Making Cyclones" model.



This shows two ryes, a nose, and all the lows forming a mouth...
Future Matthew will be the one to watch and I know it will not dissapoint. It's the name I like most on the list.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Karl, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is expected
to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to
25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 39. MiamiNative:

Thunderstorms developing over Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.




Looks like the sea breeze is just about to explode with T storms here in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers area). It sure feels like the amazon jungle outside.
We still may see waves come off Africa and develop in October. Late season Cape Verde is possible with the SST setup if shear relaxes. Everything is likely to move close to home or develop close. We have seen what the end of September into October has done the last decade plus. Stay prepared these final months.
it now looks certain that we may see Mathew during the middle of next week. the forecast rapid forward speed is indicative of a strenghening ridge which will move the system soon to be 97L westward for several days.
Karl looks to be steadily strengthening.
After seeing the strong signal by the GFS ensembles for the wave coming off Africa I wonder what the Euro and its members want to do. Will be telling but it's hard to trust models completely after the debacle with not modeling shear correctly in Karl's path. I still think it will develop in a week based on the pattern.
As Grothar mentioned in the last blog err, pictured. The crayon is out.
whats not for get dr m said this has well

A cold front will move into Texas on Monday, and potentially stall offshore of Texas on Tuesday. A tropical depression could spin up along the tail end of this cold front over the Bay of Campeche, a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Texas/Mexico border, by the middle of next week. However, fewer than 10% of the members of the 00Z Thursday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts showed this occurring.



well need too keep a eye on the Bay of Campeche
I know you guys are looking at the next potential wave off of Africa now. But look whats over Africa. I beleive the CMC and the GFS picked upon this by next week and becoming a depression quickly once off Africa.
Quoting 55. thetwilightzone:

whats not for get dr m said this has well

A cold front will move into Texas on Monday, and potentially stall offshore of Texas on Tuesday. A tropical depression could spin up along the tail end of this cold front over the Bay of Campeche, a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Texas/Mexico border, by the middle of next week. However, fewer than 10% of the members of the 00Z Thursday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts showed this occurring.



well need too keep a eye on the Bay of Campeche

Taz by the looks of things we could be into the O's or P's by the end of the month.
Quoting 56. bigwes6844:

I know you guys are looking at the next potential wave off of Africa now. But look whats over Africa. I beleive the CMC and the GFS picked upon this by next week and becoming a depression quickly once off Africa.



that may be are last Africa wave of the season too come off
Quoting 57. bigwes6844:


Taz by the looks of things we could be into the O's or P's by the end of the month.


yep but 1st whats see if we can get the M and N storm 1st then we can move on too O and P and we get O and P storm be for the end of the month we will be tide right with the E PAC for the most named storms
Quoting 19. JRRP:




oooooh wow!! Lesser Antillies /Leewards keep an eye on this....
Apparantley there are 5, yes 5, recon missions for Karl that are going on/about the start? Link
who said last tw look at Africa satt, there are at least 2-3 more waves,
lol euro and GFS flipped! euro has a caribbean crusier
64. JRRP
12Z GFS VS. 12Z Euro Low Rider. who will win? Who always win?
Take your pick the Euro vs the GFS show down on what will happen to the wave moving in the eastern Atlantic the GFS rapidly develop the wave on approaching eastern carribbean move system out of the carribbean but euro shows a storm traveling south through southern part of the carribbean who will win this one
12z HWRF sure likes future-Matthew.





Quoting 65. FreakingWearher:

12Z GFS VS. 12Z Euro Low Rider. who will win? Who always win? EURO
Felix lil brother
Starts turning north at the end of the run.

Quoting 69. ackee:



Neither both will lose.
Quoting 58. thetwilightzone:



that may be are last Africa wave of the season too come off


Not so sure about that....atleast 2 more waves behind future 97L.

CV season looks to keep chugging along for now:








This just makes me think of the phrase "go West young man".

I was almost afraid to post - is the blog working better ?
But not at 138 like GFS. Enjoy!!!!!


Quoting 71. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Starts turning north at the end of the run.


Let's see 18Z GFS.


Quoting 69. ackee:


I am shocked. A tropical wave moving off of Africa this weekend and possibly traversing the Atlantic at low latitudes into the Caribbean.

Hope you are right and turns a fish.

Quoting 72. sporteguy03:


Neither both will lose.
If the models don't bust like they did with 99L (hermine) and 92L which were all shown to be major hurricanes hitting the U.S. possible future matthew might be the last true tropical atlantic storm. Euro and GFS are very different in terms of their steering. GFS has much lower pressure north of the islands and also a strengthining hurricane while the euro has it becoming a storm in the SE carribbean. Both models flip flopped so it will be interesting to see which model switches back. GFS ensembles are more split. Half take it through the northern carribbean and toward Bermuda. The other half have it somewhere in the NW carribbean.
unknown how climate change will effect the atlantic tropics. longer more intense oct and nov?
Quoting 64. JRRP:




WELL, Well, -if the Euro is now on board with this scenario then its definitely onto something... an interesting year for sure- & as always -time WILL Tell.
Also, Karl seems to be improving by the minute -I hope Bermuda does not underestimate this one- in case they get impacted. Lisa still appears rather tenacious & vigorous- again never underestimate a Cape Verde originating system.

God Bless!
Quoting 71. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Starts turning north at the end of the run.




That's a really bad setup. Plausible but really bad for humans.
Quoting 27. Invisabull:



ditto for the wundermap


The short term fix is that we restarted the blog daemon which controls the writing of comments to the blog this morning, and that has temporarily gotten things unstuck. I am waiting to hear back from our tech folks on a permanent monitoring tool that will enable Bob and I to do this restart whenever needed. The long-term cause of the problem is still unknown, and is under investigation. There has been some discussion of replacing the blog commenting software with a totally new system, since our developer that wrote the blog software, WunderYukuza, moved on to a different job over a year ago, and no one at WU understands the blog system like he did.

I have not heard anything new on when wundermap functionality will be improved.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 84. JeffMasters:



The short term fix is that we restarted the blog daemon which controls the writing of comments to the blog this morning, and that has temporarily gotten things unstuck. I am waiting to hear back from our tech folks on a permanent monitoring tool that will enable Bob and I to do this restart whenever needed. The long-term cause of the problem is still unknown, and is under investigation. There has been some discussion of replacing the blog commenting software with a totally new system, since our developer that wrote the blog software, WunderYukuza, moved on to a different job over a year ago, and no one at WU understands the blog system like he did.

I have not heard anything new on when wundermap functionality will be improved.

Jeff Masters


Doc,

Why do those summary blogs create a new blog every 5 minutes? There are almost as many new blog entries as comments:

Community Activity
Community Participation
2041 comments and 1499 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.


Link
we received over a half of foot of rain for julia and another half since then. e cen fl.
Quoting 81. markot:

there are people on here that don't know anything about tropical weather. plz just stay off ok...
Dude! That is so not what this blog is about.
Quoting 61. Envoirment:

Apparantley there are 5, yes 5, recon missions for Karl that are going on/about the start? Link


The NOAA research missions may be happening since it is getting to be the end of the fiscal year, and they have a certain number of flight hours allocated each year they need to use up by September 30. The Air Force missions are flying since the storm is a threat to Bermuda.

I don't know why summary blogs create a new blog every 5 minutes.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 89. JeffMasters:



The NOAA research missions may be happening since it is getting to be the end of the fiscal year, and they have a certain number of flight hours allocated each year they need to use up by September 30. The Air Force missions are flying since the storm is a threat to Bermuda.

I don't know why summary blogs create a new blog every 5 minutes.

Jeff Masters




whats going on what the blog hole issue it seems too be happening 2 too 3 times a day on here
why are the recon not flying? and NOAA research doing all the work ?
Looks like Karl is a Tropical Storm again

Time: 19:29:30Z
Coordinates: 26.400N 61.467W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,557 m (5,108 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.0 mb (29.77 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 135° at 38 kts (From the SE at 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 kts (46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 kts (40.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (0.20 in/hr)
sorry back too weather
Quoting 90. thetwilightzone:




whats going on what the blog hole issue it seems too be happening 2 too 3 times a day on here


It took 2 hours for my comment to post yesterday. It's become impossible to have any real discussions in here.
I think I can FedEx a package cross country is less time than it takes for my comment to appear in the blog.

Speaking of weather - Lots of thunder all around me here in Fort Myers. But by the time you read the storms will most likely be long gone.
This solution make sense, let's wait and see.


Quoting 87. Grothar:


Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST September 23 2016
==================================

GALE WARNINGS

In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 13.8N 139.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 16.2N 136.7E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 90. thetwilightzone:




whats going on what the blog hole issue it seems too be happening 2 too 3 times a day on here


Maybe people need to comment less and listen more.
Quoting 81. markot:

there are people on here that don't know anything about tropical weather. plz just stay off ok...


How about if you don't like the comments, you leave? We all have a right to learn, and educate.
I see folks getting a little exited about the prospect of the wave developing downstream with the "rare" arrow across the Central Atlantic before the Yellow Crayon before the Antilles; read between the lines.

That arrow probably means something along the lines of "This wave is not going to be able to stack up vertically into a viable TD or storm booking across the Central Atlantic at 20-25 mph for the next several days".................Better chance once it slows down in about 5-6 days.



Quoting 84. JeffMasters:


since our developer that wrote the blog software, WunderYukuza, moved on to a different job


Link
Karl will likely become a TS once again, as recon has found TS force winds north east of the center:



Cape Verde is hopping with precipitation
Postings links of loops will help.
Considering distance are we going to see a low rider like the EURO?


Quoting 105. weathermanwannabe:

I see folks getting a little exited about the prospect of the wave developing downstream with the "rare" arrow across the Central Atlantic before the Yellow Crayon before the Antilles; read between the lines.

That arrow probably means something along the lines of "This wave is not going to be able to stack up vertically into a viable TD or storm booking across the Central Atlantic at 20-25 mph for the next several days".................Better chance once it slows down in about 5-6 days.




Posting a shear map is always a good idea; however one must trust the source.


I also like seeing the model runs and blobs.
Quoting 64. JRRP:




Looks like GFS a few days ago
Thoughts on the Atlantic today...
*Karl is finally strengthening now, although I would not expect any rapid intensification for now. If it's going to do that, its window will open up in about a day, and only last about another day. It will likely have at least fringe impacts on Bermuda as a tropical storm, but shouldn't be a high impact event.
*End of day visible images showed Lisa's center starting to become exposed west of the convection, so it will likely weaken now and poses no threat regardless.
*Watching the BOC next week, but too soon to know if something may spin up off that front.
*Watching the African wave, but again, too soon to speculate much on that. No threat at least through 5 days.
Quoting 109. FreakingWearher:

Considering distance are we going to see a low rider like the EURO?





Don't know yet but it is currently booking through a gauntlet of high shear with favorable shear as a plus out ahead but very dry air waiting ahead as a negative; it could see the fate of all the waves and storms in this Central Atlantic region struggling to organize against a back-drop of very dry mid-level moisture which we have been seeing for about 10 plus years now............................................... .... 




Quoting 108. Chicklit:

Cape Verde is hopping with precipitation
Postings links of loops will help.

Link
Quoting 75. FreakingWearher:

But not at 138 like GFS. Enjoy!!!!!





Another form of wishcasting ? Lol
No!!!!! I just want to be sure that the system go south of you jejejejejejej.


Quoting 115. CaribBoy:



Another form of wishcasting ? Lol
From the last blog:

Quoting 304. BocaFL:

Family vacation is October 5th at the Bahamas. How likely is this storm?






If your luck is anything like mine you just answered your own question!

But that is what, 2 weeks out? So other than knowing your own luck or lack there of, I think your guess is as good as anyone else's.
Looks like there's plenty of 35-40kt winds with Karl, although the center still remains exposed due to windshear.



Might see Karl up to a 40kt TS. Will be interesting to see what Karl does once shear finally lessens.
Thank You Buddy


Quoting 113. weathermanwannabe:



Don't know yet but it is currently booking through a gauntlet of high shear with favorable shear as a plus out ahead but very dry air waiting ahead as a negative; it could see the fate of all the waves and storms in this Central Atlantic region struggling to organize against a back-drop of very dry mid-level moisture which we have been seeing for about 10 plus years now............................................... .... 





Will also note that the little "shrimp" convective burst from this morning is now gone...................This will be a very slow one to develop if it is meant to be: also wondering if it might get some assistance from the heavier convection about to emerge a little closer to 10N to flow along with it to the West to help with the "pouch".

SYNOPSIS 2016092200

P42L
15N, 41W
700 hPa

Spinning up in the southwesterly flow SW of Lisa.

ECMWF: Tiny pouch tracks slowly westward for a few days, then turns to the NW and dissipates. OW starts in the 5-6x10-9 during the first 12 hours, then steadily decreases.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, dissipating 12 hours sooner.

UKMET:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -5.0 0.0 v700 108h
GFS -4.9 0.0 v700 96h
UKMET
HWGEN

Interesting tweet:

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

Central tropical Atlantic mid-level moisture in Aug-Sep shows AMO-like variability since 1979. 2016 moisture low but not at record lows.



Link
Well, it looks as though another Autumnal Equinox (Northern Hemisphere) has come and gone with little to no fanfare or celebration.

This year [what year is it?], it had occurred at about 14:21 UTC or 10:21 AM EDT, Thursday, September 22, 2016 (today). [Which month is it? What day is it?]

I attribute this to our collective stubbornness in clinging on to a very poorly devised and corrupted timekeeping system that has absolutely no correlation to any naturally occurring events.
The EURO is probably wrong.


SYNOPSIS 2016092200

P36L … 96L … TD13L … Lisa
18N, 33W (Use 20N, 28W for little westward motion)
700 hPa

ECMWF: Tracks NW, recurving after 84 hours, then dissipating soon thereafter. Except for a brief spike up to 23x10-9 s-2 at 48 hours, OW is relatively steady in the 14-19x10-9 s-2 range for the first three days, then decreases.

GFS: Similar recurvature timing as in ECMWF, but with slower poleward motion and remains stronger after recurvature. OW is in the 22-27x10-9 s-2 for much of the five days, except for a dip down to 18x10-9 s-2 at 12 hours, another dip to 11x10-9 s-2 at 84 hours, and a spike up to 36x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours.

UKMET:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -2.8 3.8 track 96h
GFS -2.9 2.9 track 120h
UKMET
HWGEN


carib boy i side with you the gfs will prevail. hopefully we dont have another marilyn on our hands
Quoting 124. CaribBoy:

The EURO is probably wrong.


Again your just mad it isnt looping around your island CALM DOWN
.
Dear Sir or Madam, will you read my blog?
It took me hours to write, will you take a look?
It's based on a forecast by a man named Avila,
And I need a job,
So I want to be a NHC forecaster,
NHC forecaster......


Quoting 127. James1981cane:



Again your just mad it isnt looping around your island CALM DOWN


Heart rate 65... I'm calm. What's yours?
Karl should be upgraded to a Tropical Storm on the next update at 5
Nice current close up of the wave exiting Africa and the larger convective complex right behind it:

Satellite Image Infrared (color) Africa West Thursday 22 Sep 2016 18:30 BST

Karl coming together, satellite presentation improving and banding developing.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2016 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 25:10:12 N Lon : 62:59:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1005.8mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.1 2.1

Center Temp : +4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -16.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 24:58:11 N Lon: 61:58:47 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.3 degrees






Quoting 122. Envoirment:

Interesting tweet:

Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

Central tropical Atlantic mid-level moisture in Aug-Sep shows AMO-like variability since 1979. 2016 moisture low but not at record lows.



Link
Similar to 2001, which also saw some struggling tropical storms like this season and a busier 2nd half of the season where we got the bulk of our hurricanes and major hurricanes. TS Allison almost compares to this seasons no-name storm that brought flooding to portions of Louisiana. Interesting, the season is far from over imo.
Quoting 130. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Karl should be upgraded to a Tropical Storm on the next update at 5


Looks like it.
Upgraded

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

At 1800 UTC, 22 September 2016, TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL (AL12) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 25.0°N and 62.8°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 14 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.





DOOM or FOOLS GOLD? We'll find out more by this weekend. 97L the next invest on the list, TD 14 the next tropical depression on the list, and Matthew the next named storm on the list.

Quoting 139. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM or FOOLS GOLD? We'll find out more by this weekend. 97L the next invest on the list, TD 14 the next tropical depression on the list, and Matthew the next named storm on the list.




OK keep that way south of me lol.
TS Warning now in effect for Bermuda

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Underwater gliders could improve hurricane predictions
Leeanna McLean, Digital Reporter, Thursday, September 22, 2016, 4:36 PM -
As Hermine barreled up the U.S. East Coast, several underwater gliders were deployed to collect data and while it may take months to analyze, scientists say this technology could significantly improve hurricane forecasting, which could ultimately save lives and property.
Over the past several years, NOAA has worked in collaboration with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) to develop and deploy the remotely controlled gliders during the hurricane season. They are designed to delve into the heart of a storm where they then feed real-time information via satellite to scientists. ....

Whole article see link above.



Obviously not that new. But I haven't heard of it yet.

NOAA/AOML - CARICOOS Hurricane Underwater Gliders

Previous Underwater Gliders Missions
Link

Thunderstorms near the Northern Leewards due to light S winds.
I don't see why 5 knts or less and up to 10 knts of shear is a problem for intensification, both are favorable levels of wind shear that shouldn't inhibit organization much at all. If models are correct Karl should take advantage in the that range of shear. This is from the 5pm discussion:

The global models continue to
show the shear decreasing at least some during the next couple of
days, but there are differences. For example, GFS fields show the
shear decreasing to around 5 knots or less by Friday morning
through evening, while the ECMWF only shows the shear decreasing to
around 10 knots during the same period. This continues to make the
intensity forecast difficult.
Finally my posts are posting again, the blog has not been working well the past week or so. Anyway, I do think the future Caribbean storm needs to be watched, considering the GFS and EURO both show a hurricane. I highly doubt the wave will develop as fast as the GFS has been showing - TCs have really struggled around the Lesser Antilles in recent seasons, and I doubt that's going to suddenly change. But you never know with the tropics.

Karl is a TS again and is likely to peak as a minimal hurricane northeast of Bermuda before it turns extratropical.

Doom of the day! Presented by the Ecmwf.
Quoting 140. CaribBoy:



OK keep that way south of me lol.



LOL you are too funny thats your dream storm you been wanting you may get your wish
Quoting 84. JeffMasters:



The short term fix is that we restarted the blog daemon which controls the writing of comments to the blog this morning, and that has temporarily gotten things unstuck. I am waiting to hear back from our tech folks on a permanent monitoring tool that will enable Bob and I to do this restart whenever needed. The long-term cause of the problem is still unknown, and is under investigation. There has been some discussion of replacing the blog commenting software with a totally new system, since our developer that wrote the blog software, WunderYukuza, moved on to a different job over a year ago, and no one at WU understands the blog system like he did.

I have not heard anything new on when wundermap functionality will be improved.

Jeff Masters


I heard on the news last night, I think it was BBC, that literally hundreds of millions of computers were having problems due to Windows 10. To me it seems remote that this could be the cause of the problem, but I am not at all savvy in that sort of thing. MIGHT be worth a moment's thought.

"Microsoft's Windows 10 has caused us 'nothing but trouble' say users"

Link
Whether this blog keeps having issues or not although it would be real nice if everything is fixed I'm going to be here through it all, love this place and all the great info about weather even if it takes a whole day for my post to show up lol.
Why is the directory being spammed 24/7/365 by a wu employee with 4 summaries?


When one post in one,it gets deleted?

Is this a spurned employee?


When Aaron left,the site has trended downhill.


So the IBM sale was a disaster en masse.


So we have the test blog by the wu software guy In the current directory.


He must have nightmares at night since Aaron moved on.


Sad,sad, realities fo sho.

Patrap.

O-U-T
Quoting 132. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Karl coming together, satellite presentation improving and banding developing.




Will be interesting to see what Karl will do - NHC has it strengthening at a pace of around 5kt/12 hours for the next day or so. If wind shear does lighten up to 10kts or less over the system, it could quite easily strengthen faster than that. I wouldn't rule out Karl making a run for category 2 status.
Can anyone please tell me why I'm no longer able to see any graphics which are included in posts. Since the new site has been update I see nothing but comments. Thanks for the help in advance.
Quoting 148. thetwilightzone:




LOL you are too funny thats your dream storm you been wanting you may get your wish


In the bottom of myself, I want a storm. But not a major.
Quoting 154. CaribBoy:



In the bottom of myself, yes I want a storm. But not a major.



cant have it both ways lol
Sure those ceaselessly and unrelentlessly updating "summaries" are choking the blog, "faster and faster".
Link

asiansummary Weather Underground Asia/Austra... 0 0 2 minutes ago
nationalsummary Weather Underground National Fo... 0 0 2 minutes ago
caribbeansummary Weather Underground Caribbean F... 0 0 2 minutes ago
europeansummary Weather Underground European Fo... 0 0 2 minutes ago
latinamericansummary Weather Underground Latin Ameri... 0 0 2 minutes ago

Quoting 15. barbamz:

Wow, very suspicious indeed! Summaries outta countrol. Stop them! ;-)


18z GFS will show a Caribbean Cruiser again.
Karl appears to be strengthening. Recon found flight-level winds of 55 kt (65 mph) that did not appear to be significantly rain-contaminated. It may take a little while for these winds to make it down to the surface, but I do think Bermuda should prepare for a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane on Saturday morning.


Good night from my side of the ocean (with uneventful calm weather), and smooth blogging!

White House puts real-time climate data online for city planners
by Sebastien Malo | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Thursday, 22 September 2016 18:12 GMT
NEW YORK, Sept 22 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - A new website powered by the White House and partners including Google and Microsoft, aims to pull real-time climate data from NASA satellites and other sources for planners preparing for the effects of climate change, its founders said on Thursday.
It is the first partnership of its kind to gather in a single place climate projections and figures for decision-makers previously faced with a dearth of information, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI), one of the partners.
The website, www.prepdata.org (PREPDATA), will process data from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Department of Interior, among other sources. ...


Whose sky is it anyway? U.S. drone case tests rights to air space
by Paola Totaro and Konstantin Kakaes Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 13:54 GMT
... After a year of counter argument, a decision on which court jurisdiction should hear the complaint is expected within weeks and this could set new precedents for U.S. law.
Experts are watching the case closely as the burgeoning drone industry, fuelled both by hobbyists and commercial operators, highlights the lack of regulation governing lower altitude air space not just in the United States but globally.
"We are in an interesting time now when technology has surpassed the law," said Boggs' lawyer, James Mackler, a former Blackhawk pilot and partner at Frost Brown Todd and one of a handful of attorneys specializing in unmanned aircraft law. ...
This is certainly entering the Caribbean with that ridge, there is no escape.

Heads up to those with loved ones near Ogden, UT: very significant & severe thunderstorms moving through area. Daughter just called me and said huge trees are down, debris flying through air, she had no weather alert on phone. She is in N Ogden.
Persistent low-rider.
Quoting 162. Sanfordia:

Heads up to those with loved ones near Ogden, UT: very significant & severe thunderstorms moving through area. Daughter just called me and said huge trees are down, debris flying through air, she had no weather alert on phone. She is in N Ogden.


Best wishes to your daughter! Source.
Less than a week, which means to pay attention Lesser Antilles and all islands in the Carribean, 18z GFS shows a strengthening tropical storm, probably will be a strong Hurricane at some point in this run but its too early to look beyond a week.

Quoting 161. WeatherkidJoe2323:
This is certainly entering the Caribbean with that ridge, there is no escape.

yeah, but still a ways out, alot can change by then
Quoting 126. islander101010:

carib boy i side with you the gfs will prevail. hopefully we dont have another marilyn on our hands


*nudges islander* Do you understand the name "Marilyn" isn't to be mentioned in conjunction with this island.....

Lindy
Not much ridging again. Still very different compared to the EURO. But I think the EURO will win.
Quoting 153. Rebel427:

Can anyone please tell me why I'm no longer able to see any graphics which are included in posts. Since the new site has been update I see nothing but comments. Thanks for the help in advance.


Try dropping comment display to 50. It worked like a charm for me.

-L
I have to see it to believe it.This has been the year of struggling storms and a ULL always seems to be somewhere lurking and throwing shear around.Just ask Karl....
Will depend on how fast it gets its act together before it enters the Caribbean.. But future mattew could be a prohlem
Quoting 162. Sanfordia:

Heads up to those with loved ones near Ogden, UT: very significant & severe thunderstorms moving through area. Daughter just called me and said huge trees are down, debris flying through air, she had no weather alert on phone. She is in N Ogden.



they should be calling there NWS there and reporting that so they can put up the warnings they need too be put up if its that bad
Recons latest fix on Karl is 1003mb, he is strengthening.
Quoting 170. washingtonian115:

I have to see it to believe it.This has been the year of struggling storms and a ULL always seems to be somewhere lurking and throwing shear around.Just ask Karl....
Was just about to say something similar, we have seen this before.
Hey look the Atlantic is making faces at us again.

GFS weaker and more south with this run
Anyone noticed that the GFS is much faster than yesterday? And you know the story with those fast moving waves....
Patrap,
Yes, the summaries are irritating, the way they continually get bot-bumped to the top of the blog list. My guess is this continual bumping is engineered and desired by the wu uppermucks, so as to attract hits from other places on earth besides the U.S. The "summary" blogs never seem to have any comments. Weird, if you comment, they poof.

There are actually five summaries. I put them all on IGNORE a while back.

If they're gonna bot-bump, Doc M's blog should be getting auto-bumped and always be at the top of the bloglist!
Blog has gone Snail again.
Quoting 170. washingtonian115:
I have to see it to believe it.This has been the year of struggling storms and a ULL always seems to be somewhere lurking and throwing shear around.Just ask Karl....
Karl, and just about everyone else- although I think this one might just have a shot,we'll see
The fast foreward motion explains why the GFS is further west.
If these model outputs come true, it look like Matthew and Nicole could be on their way, GFS also has been depicting a storm to form in the Gulf around the time potential Matthew is in the Eastern Caribbean. Strength remains a mystery, weak or strong, we'll find out.
183. ackee
The 18z GFS has shifted slightly more west for the storm once it goes into the eastern carribbean let see what the oz run will do I say by Sunday Monday model should have a better handle on the system
18Z GFS almost the same as 12Z, OTS.
Errr! What is wrong with this blog!
Quoting 171. rockcity340:

Will depend on how fast it gets its act together before it enters the Caribbean.. But future mattew could be a prohlem


Also, if it comes slower it will turn N further E...
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 632 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING EL PASO TX - KEPZ 429 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 325 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SALT LAKE CITY UT - KSLC 422 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SALT LAKE CITY UT - KSLC 354 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 245 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SALT LAKE CITY UT - KSLC 325 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GRAND JUNCTION CO - KGJT 320 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SALT LAKE CITY UT - KSLC 244 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ELKO NV - KLKN 139 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SALT LAKE CITY UT - KSLC 209 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 356 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016
Quoting 172. thetwilightzone:




they should be calling there NWS there and reporting that so they can put up the warnings they need too be put up if its that bad


Its all over the news there now, tornado touched down in Weber county, confirmed. Vid at link.
Quoting 172. thetwilightzone:




they should be calling there NWS there and reporting that so they can put up the warnings they need too be put up if its that bad


Link didn't post. Try again. Tornado confirmed touchdown in Weber Cty UT http://www.good4utah.com/news/local-news/tornado-b riefly-touches-down-in-weber-county-as-strong-stor ms-move-across-wasatch-front
A severe thunderstorm warning was issued at :22 minutes after the hour from the salt lake city nws.


735  
WUUS55 KSLC 222222  
SVRSLC  
UTC003-005-033-222300-  
/O.NEW.KSLC.SV.W.0054.160922T2222Z-160922T2300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
422 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY IN UTAH...  
NORTHERN RICH COUNTY IN UTAH...  
CACHE COUNTY IN UTAH...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM MDT  
 
* AT 420 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF  
70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR  
LEWISTON TO 20 MILES WEST OF WOODRUFF...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40  
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LOGAN...RANDOLPH...LAKETOWN...CACHE...SMITHFIELD.. .HYRUM...  
WELLSVILLE...LEWISTON...CLARKSTON...GARDEN CITY...TRENTON...  
PETER...GARDEN...BENSON...NORTH LOGAN...PROVIDENCE...NIBLEY...HYDE  
PARK...RICHMOND AND MILLVILLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE  
HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR  
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR  
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE  
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A VERY  
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND  
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! IF ON OR NEAR BEAR LAKE...GET OUT OF THE  
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN  
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR  
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO  
SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4168 11113 4145 11182 4194 11213 4200 11203  
4200 11134  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 240DEG 51KT 4201 11189 4141 11153  
 
 
 
GM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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I'll post cause it's slow, glad Karl will only glance Bermuda last thing they need is another Fabien. Hope everyone is doing well
12z Euro 50 member ensembles:





Quoting 183. ackee:

The 18z GFS has shifted slightly more west for the storm once it goes into the eastern carribbean let see what the oz run will do I say by Sunday Monday model should have a better handle on the system

We might not ever know due to the never ending blog hole.
Also...
Appears our former and longstanding wu met admin and blogger is now a lecturer in San Jose State's Dept of Meteorology and Climate Science.

Way to go, Shaun Tanner!

Quote me if I am wrong but it only shows pre-Matthew OTS once.
Quoting 192. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12z Euro 50 member ensembles:








Mmmmm
197. SLU
Once bitten, twice shy.

Quoting 192. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12z Euro 50 member ensembles:








336 hours? I don't think that can be the same system.
199. SLU
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT KARL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE...
8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22
Location: 26.2°N 63.6°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Karl back up to 45 mph, has reached a new peak.

8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22
Location: 26.2°N 63.6°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Quoting 180. CapeFearCaner:

Karl, and just about everyone else- although I think this one might just have a shot,we'll see


lol
Quoting 197. SLU:

Once bitten, twice shy.




Am waiting see this scenario to many times.....
I agree with Dr. Masters in saying that the Bay of Campeche will need to be watched next week. This time of year, it is not uncommon for weak tropical cyclones to spin up at the tail end of cold fronts, especially in that region. GFS puts a weak low (about 1009 mbar) into the area - not a tropical cyclone on that run, but these BoC storms are often poorly handled by models.
Looks like Karl is starting to get its act together. Down to 1001 from 1006mb and winds from 30kt to 40kts over the last few hours or so. Once shear lets up it could really get going. Will be interesting to watch Karl tomorrow and Sunday.
#156 Barbamz and Pat's mention earlier:
I have been wondering why these 'summaries' are posted so often - they do not contain updates nor changes and no one comments on them.
Disgruntled:
Give it up.
I suppose we could all put the poster on ignore but it (these posts) seem to coincide with the time-outs on the blogs.
Where are ya Keep and Skye?
Quoting 106. barbamz:



Link


I really like that this is Moss from the IT Crowd, thanks for putting a face to these problems!
Quoting 207. ToesInTheWater:


I really like that this is Moss from the IT Crowd, thanks for putting a face to these problems!
What? You can't be serious!
Utah tornado report at SPC

2145 1 W SOUTH OGDEN WEBER UT 4117 11198
TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN WASHINGTON TERRACE (SLC)
testing...
211. MahFL
Convection at the center of ex Julia :

Driveway has been cleared for the emerging wave, everything going as planned for the lower rider.

Shear to the west is clearing up


Sal is clear to west, and the thick stuff is to the north.

Looks like a ghost of Julia or a new spin off is gaining some convection and spin around Georgetown, SC.
Joan Watson: Are these Wu's deep files from the server?


Sherlock Holmes: From a drop of water a logician can infer the possibility of an Atlantic or Niagra without having seen or heard of either one. I've got my drop of water, now allow me to infer.



215. beell
Quoting 113. weathermanwannabe:



Don't know yet but it is currently booking through a gauntlet of high shear with favorable shear as a plus out ahead but very dry air waiting ahead as a negative; it could see the fate of all the waves and storms in this Central Atlantic region struggling to organize against a back-drop of very dry mid-level moisture which we have been seeing for about 10 plus years now............................................... ....%uFFFD







A portion of the shear indicated on the CIMSS chart to the west of Karl may actually be some developing upper outflow associated with Karl. That generous guess is based on inspection of "Gonzo's" flight level winds and dropsondes along the western and northwestern periphery.

Mid-level dry air remains to the south of the circulation.
216. beell
Guess I didn't hit the lucky 7 minute window to post a comment!
"Thanks for playing, beell, please try again soon."
:)
Quoting 204. HurricaneFan:

I agree with Dr. Masters in saying that the Bay of Campeche will need to be watched next week. This time of year, it is not uncommon for weak tropical cyclones to spin up at the tail end of cold fronts, especially in that region. GFS puts a weak low (about 1009 mbar) into the area - not a tropical cyclone on that run, but these BoC storms are often poorly handled by models.



It moves it E/NE, too. Does a loop-the-loop off the LA coast.
Quoting 210. JeffMasters:

testing...


test
testtesttest
Karl looking like a west pacific storm THIS evening.
Karl finally looking like a strengthening cyclone.

Busy making sure my friends in Charlotte are safe.
Quoting 209. Barefootontherocks:

Utah tornado report at SPC

2145 1 W SOUTH OGDEN WEBER UT 4117 11198
TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN WASHINGTON TERRACE (SLC)


I just got on to chitchat about today's wind, and looking at this I'm really not surprised - this is a real wind generator of a day.

Housemate put up one of those triangular "shade sails" over the porch, and as we're in the process of pulling some rotting roof eaves, it made more sense to use big honkin' C clamps as tiedown points. That way we don't need to worry about screw threads holding in questionable wood when the winds get frisky.

Well, about an hour ago I had to figure out a way to rescue a 6" C clamp tied to the end of a rope, whipping around at an easy 40 or so MPH. Before it smashed into the French door, which we plan on getting rid of in our porch/kitchen rebuild anyway but now's not the time to do demolition.

Mission accomplished - by grabbing one of the other two tiedown points and "walking" my hands along the edge. That was some scary s*** there for a few minutes.

I hope the wind dies down enough around sunset that I can tarp the cukes and 'maters. I anticipate patchy frost tonight.
225. JRRP7
the ensembles are a bit west... maybe the 00z run will shit west or south
225. JRRP7

Might want to proofread and edit. Preview comment is a good thing.
Quoting 227. SunnyDaysFla:

225. JRRP7

Might want to proofread and edit. Preview comment is a good thing.


Quoting 223. Patrap:




Huh..
...and that concludes my forecast for Hermine. I wonder if we will have Ian soon...
Quoting 225. JRRP7:

the ensembles are a bit west... maybe the 00z run will shit west or south



The 18z GEFS seems to show 2 scenarios. 1st one involving the NE Caribbean. 2nd one involving the C and W Caribbean.



The 12z run was actually further W




Quoting 229. win1gamegiantsplease:



Huh..



Datz gonna hurt some early tee times tomorrow morning
Quoting 208. Barefootontherocks:

What? You can't be serious!

LOL! Sorry, not trying to contribute to blog-drag, just glad a few people get it... :-]
Quoting 232. Patrap:




Datz gonna hurt some early tee times tomorrow morning


I've heard the Legends courses are really nice, NC has one at Oyster Bay. Fair bit of isolated flooding reports, the fowls and gators probably loving life at the links about now.
Been a rainy day here in Florence, SC.

Quoting 223. Patrap:


Look at the outflow channels on Karl, this is an intensifying storm which could be in the process of RI, we will know in 24 hours. Not much dry air and shear from here shouldn't be inhibiting. Bermuda should prepare for a stronger system then forecasted.

Quoting 230. Grothar:

...and that concludes my forecast for Hermine. I wonder if we will have Ian soon...



we all ready had Hermine and IAN my dear
Quoting 230. Grothar:

...and that concludes my forecast for Hermine. I wonder if we will have Ian soon...


Grathar Did You Take Your Geritol? What Do You Think Of Ex Julia? You Said She Wasnt Done lol
Quoting 237. thetwilightzone:




we all ready had Hermine and IAN my dear


Me thinks it's a joke about how much lag is going on with the blog my dear.
240. elioe
Quoting 225. JRRP7:

the ensembles are a bit west... maybe the 00z run will shit west or south



Well, I guess it will be a major milestone in technology. Never before has there been a computer code having digestive properties.
Quoting 239. win1gamegiantsplease:



Me thinks it's a joke about how much lag is going on with the blog my dear.



i love you too lol a joke


but yep your right this lag in the blogs is getting old
Karl's peak intensity should occur past Bermuda I think it will be a strong Hurricane but Not a major then of course transition into an extratropical cyclone.
Quoting 238. K8eCane:



Grathar Did You Take Your Geritol? What Do You Think Of Ex Julia? You Said She Wasnt Done lol


I also wrote about the new system 5 days ago :)
Quoting 243. Grothar:



I also wrote about the new system 5 days ago :)


I guess that explains why we're just hearing about it now, with the blog lag and all. :)
Quoting 235. HaoleboySurfEC:

Been a rainy day here in Florence, SC.




On and off here, though rained most of today and last night.

Quoting 241. thetwilightzone:




i love you too lol a joke


but yep your right this lag in the blogs is getting old


Sure is. Can't imagine what would happen in the case of a hurricane approaching land on here.
There was an earthquake moments ago between St Kitts and St Barths :\

M5.1

Link
interlude



Quoting 236. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Look at the outflow channels on Karl, this is an intensifying storm which could be in the process of RI, we will know in 24 hours. Not much dry air and shear from here shouldn't be inhibiting. Bermuda should prepare for a stronger system then forecasted.



Quite agreed -a lot of the Cape Verde originating system have been rather robust and Karl is no exception - inspite of its earlier delay in intensification- its now Well underway...

Blessings and Prayers especially to those in Bermuda!
Plan, Pray, Prepare & Hope for the best...T.S. conditions could arrive by the morning.
Quoting 246. CaribBoy:

There was an earthquake moments ago between St Kitts and St Barths :\

M5.1


Yes there was a quake but mag was 4.1
Quoting 249. java162:



Yes there was a quake but mag was 4.1
\\

USGS still says 5.1
Quoting 243. Grothar:



I also wrote about the new system 5 days ago :)


What's it gonna do chief
Quoting 251. SunnyDaysFla:

\\

USGS still says 5.1



UWI, SRC - Automatic Earthquake Location
DATE AND TIME:
2016-09-22 9:48 pm (Local Time)
2016-09-23 01:48 (UTC)
MAGNITUDE:
4.1
LOCATION:
Latitude: 18.10N
Longitude: 62.36W
Depth: 96 km
NEARBY CITIES:
98 km NE of Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis
123 km NW of Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda
224 km NW of Point-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe
getting rid of this was a vary bad idea please bring it back


Link
Quoting 253. java162:




UWI, SRC - Automatic Earthquake Location
DATE AND TIME:
2016-09-22 9:48 pm (Local Time)
2016-09-23 01:48 (UTC)
MAGNITUDE:
4.1
LOCATION:
Latitude: 18.10N
Longitude: 62.36W
Depth: 96 km
NEARBY CITIES:
98 km NE of Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis
123 km NW of Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda
224 km NW of Point-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe


From USGS
Time
2016-09-23 01:48:35 (UTC)
Location
17.547°N 62.650°W
Depth
1.0 km


Depth 1Km... :\\
Quoting 249. java162:



Yes there was a quake but mag was 4.1
By whose measure? USGS is still (0235UT) showing it as 5.1.
Hey, Teddy! :P

And I'm telling you, it's going through the Windward Passage :)



225. Grothar

12:44 AM EDT on September 20, 2016
This might become Matthew


Quoting 244. CybrTeddy:



I guess that explains why we're just hearing about it now, with the blog lag and all. :)


225. Grothar

12:44 AM EDT on September 20, 2016
This might become Matthew






313. Grothar
10:32 AM EDT on September 20, 2016




Japan Meteorological Agency
9:00 AM JST September 23 2016
==================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

West Of The Mariana Islands
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Megi (1000 hPa) located at 15.7N 140.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 17.0N 135.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.8N 130.3E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.1N 125.6E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting 255. CaribBoy:


From USGS
Time
2016-09-23 01:48:35 (UTC)
Location
17.547N 62.650W
Depth
1.0 km


Depth 1Km... :\\
Shallow. Did you feel the quake?

Ps. ...We will tune in tomorrow afternoon for your answer. :/
Quoting 233. ToesInTheWater:


LOL! Sorry, not trying to contribute to blog-drag, just glad a few people get it... :-]
At last least I made you laugh. Aaron (WunderYakuza) is a wu demi-god, you know. He sits right up there with STORMTOP.
Quoting 252. hurrikanehunter14:



What's it gonna do chief







Taiwan again, unfortunately
Riverside Municipal Airport

Last heatwave of the Year? only 81.7 here today.
Quoting 254. thetwilightzone:

getting rid of this was a vary bad idea please bring it back


Link


1000+++
265. SLU
Mic check. One, two. One, two.
test-test-test 21:00
Quoting 236. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Look at the outflow channels on Karl, this is an intensifying storm which could be in the process of RI, we will know in 24 hours. Not much dry air and shear from here shouldn't be inhibiting. Bermuda should prepare for a stronger system then forecasted.



Can't wait to see how this looks like tomorrow morning
Karl's starting to get that look!
test 21:23..better
Quoting 225. JRRP7:

the ensembles are a bit west... maybe the 00z run will shit west or south



Will do "WHAT" west or south ?
Pretty strong storm in Brevard tonight

it appears that the GFS is lining up with the Euro.
Quoting 123. Caesari:

Well, it looks as though another Autumnal Equinox (Northern Hemisphere) has come and gone with little to no fanfare or celebration.

This year [what year is it?], it had occurred at about 14:21 UTC or 10:21 AM EDT, Thursday, September 22, 2016 (today). [Which month is it? What day is it?]

I attribute this to our collective stubbornness in clinging on to a very poorly devised and corrupted timekeeping system that has absolutely no correlation to any naturally occurring events.

Well, the Autumnal Equinox is certainly a naturally occurring event but I guess it's not tied to a specific time on the calendar. The problem with naturally occurring events is that they are slightly variable in the times they occur because of the variations of orbital parameters over time so if you tied the calendar to them you'd have to do something with the calendar to account for the variation of time between them. That would probably end up being more confusing than the current system. After all they came up with the leap year system because the number of solar days in a year is 365.242 days. That's less confusing than the old system where the dates of natural occurring events kept changing in one direction constantly.

You could call it Stardate 2016.26630625 if you wanted to (but they weren't consistent on how they used Stardates on Star Trek so other Stardates are possible).


No way this will happen, just no, no! We cant be so irresponsible to believe any intensity forecast the gfs gives us.
276. ackee
So the GFS as now join the Euro with a southern track and move Matthew through the carribbean interesting this was the GFS track for the system earlier given how far south this wave his and how fast it moving I think track seem most likely intensity lets see will the Euro agree or flip again
277. ackee
So the GFS now in agreement with the Euro on track not surprising interesting time ahead let see what the euro will do
"Low-rider" storm about to exit Africa.

One scenario for the "Low-rider."
279. vis0

Quoting 211. MahFL:

Convection at the center of ex Julia :


image host

The rest are my crappy thoughts, if you dislike vis0's explanations that use unknown theories (
even if recently ~last 3 to 5 yrs they are being discovered to be factual, WxU members "barbamz" and "coloradobob" (forgot new username) posted links as to jet stream studies and certain "waves") move on to the next cmmnt, it should appear between now and 2017AD.
  
what ended around the 20th of Sept 2016, no not the school clothing SALEs, but the recent "2WkAnom" 
Notice how TS seemingly took a more towards zip 10126 path, Julie more N than predicted NE, Karl a more NNW than predicted NNE, last is Lisa as its at the edge of being influenced by the imaginary weather influencing device so portions of Lisa seemingly trying to head NW but most heading ENE. Now all eventually head in the predicted direction but when that turn happens 10-15 degrees later its a medium to big deal, specially to Bermuda 
i see a few years ago the "waves: caused by moon cycles is being figured out, congrats
(not showing off just is what i did in the 1970s and i followed that up typing up a science report for my MD scholarship in JHS as to how the moon does affect the brains of animals via my theory of the sugar vs, salt side of resonance deflected by the moon that match with full/new moon cycles.
IMPORTANT:: resonance deflected by moon are not "matchable" with full/new cycles light reflection as the resonance changes within its own cycle, hence not every full or new moon causes an emotional reaction (bad/good)) but its the amount of resonance deflected "/ %" by angle of moon to the being on the planet "/" the imbalance in that beings "diet" "*" by the last (major "/"diet) that shows the odds of a person acting differently be it for better or worse.
 
JUNIOR JUMBLE CLUE::  it aint person, place not thing
0z GFS <3

Drought breaker AND verification of my seasonal forecast.
Quoting 275. chrisdscane:



No way this will happen, just no, no! We cant be so irresponsible to believe any intensity forecast the gfs gives us.

I don't even believe the track.
Karl has an AC.
Quoting 248. NatureIsle:


Quite agreed -a lot of the Cape Verde originating system have been rather robust and Karl is no exception - inspite of its earlier delay in intensification- its now Well underway...

Blessings and Prayers especially to those in Bermuda!
Plan, Pray, Prepare & Hope for the best...T.S. conditions could arrive by the morning.
of

Is that a hot tower near the center?
Back on the subject of weather I had a rather strong thunderstorm pass over me last night (9/21/2016) around 9:00 pm in the South Hills of Salem, OR. (When I say rather strong I mean for Western Oregon, we never get T-storms of the magnitude you get Back East.) It was blustery (but not enough to blow lawn furniture around), rained hard for 25 minutes or so including some hail and I noticed 10 or 15 lightning strikes, one was less than half a mile from me (based on 7 seconds = 1 mile on the time difference between seeing a lightning bolt and hearing it). It was a rather exciting event because we don't get T-storms very often here. Probably less than 5 days a year on average.

Quoting 230. Grothar:

...and that concludes my forecast for Hermine. I wonder if we will have Ian soon...


We're just starting to feel the effects of the eyewall here, lot's of power flashes and trees starting to come down, getting scary! Good call on Tallahassee getting hit.

:)
My God! That would be the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Wilma.

Quoting 274. riverat544:


Well, the Autumnal Equinox is certainly a naturally occurring event but I guess it's not tied to a specific time on the calendar. The problem with naturally occurring events is that they are slightly variable in the times they occur because of the variations of orbital parameters over time so if you tied the calendar to them you'd have to do something with the calendar to account for the variation of time between them. That would probably end up being more confusing than the current system. After all they came up with the leap year system because the number of solar days in a year is 365.242 days. That's less confusing than the old system where the dates of natural occurring events kept changing in one direction constantly.

You could call it Stardate 2016.26630625 if you wanted to (but they weren't consistent on how they used Stardates on Star Trek so other Stardates are possible).


We celebrated yesterday. Split young porker started grilling in the morning; by supper he reached his life's perfection by human standards. Happy Equinoctial Basket Day! I got wasabi almonds, salami, and a new pair of workpants in my basket. Also plenty of beer, shots and good conversation last night. Not enough to be stupid and hung over, just enough to lighten the heart.

We have a good bloodline going - don't have to castrate, just have to keep the boys away from the girls. Castrating pigs is something I am perfectly happy to never have to do.

And on topic - they hated today's weather. Spent most of the day in their houses or complaining about the stiff north wind.
Quoting 281. sporteguy03:


I don't even believe the track.


I don't necessarily believe it either (I'll need many more model cycles before I will), but other than it miraculously not moving east under that 500mb trough over the central Gulf, what's wrong with it? Climatology doesn't favor a recurve through the islands like it was showing earlier.
Quoting 283. BaltimoreBrian:




What is it with the long range GFS always targeting Louisiana with major hurricanes? This probably won't come to pass anyway, but still kind of creepy. Oh, well...12 days to prepare for DOOM!!!! (Yeah, right.)
Ohnoblob


Quoting 281. sporteguy03:


I don't even believe the track.


I don't even believe that I don't even believe. How do you like that?
293. ackee
Quoting 287. GTstormChaserCaleb:

My God! That would be the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Wilma.

true I think how strong the system his when it nears the windward could determine track and intensity further Down the road
Quoting 287. GTstormChaserCaleb:

My God! That would be the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Wilma.


Northern Honduras will receive a lot of erosion like it did with Wilma if this miraculously happen. Gfs continues to be consistent and now the models are getting onboard. Will see what the Euro shows.
295. SLU
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to
25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could
be conducive for some gradual development while the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila
How can I find the GFS Full Resolution on tropical tidbits? All I see is non-full res...
297. ackee
So both Euro and GFS oz similar in track and develop the system intensity will be wait and see GFS too bullish in intensifying the system and the Euro sometime it's intensity forecast it bit Lower than what actual occur
Quoting 294. allancalderini:

Northern Honduras will receive a lot of erosion like it did with Wilma if this miraculously happen. Gfs continues to be consistent and now the models are getting onboard. Will see what the Euro shows.


They've seemed pretty consistent so far, but, as we all know, it's nearly impossible to forecast that far out. But the fact that the models have been consistent and are beginning to come in agreement is certainly a concern. Definitely going to be interesting to watch this play out over the next couple of weeks
Very good agreement among the top two models for predicting tropical cyclone development on the possible track of the tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic.

ECMWF 168 hrs.



GFS 168 hrs.

Quoting 297. ackee:

So both Euro and GFS oz similar in track and develop the system intensity will be wait and see GFS too bullish in intensifying the system and the Euro sometime it's intensity forecast it bit Lower than what actual occur


UKMET is on board too and the CMC to some extent
Also the NOAA FIM

So
GFS
CMC
EURO
UKMET
FIM NOAA

So just awaiting NAVGEM
I just looked at Karl closely and it's forming a low or mid level eye. This means atleast a 60 mph intensity, and recon SFMR has found 55 mph winds.
Quoting 283. BaltimoreBrian:




I don't know what would worry me more, it's max winds or the MASSIVE size. It would be devastating for sure...but it's so far outward in time that it's not so worrying.
303. ackee
Wow 240 hours both the euro and the GFS show a hurricane somewhere south of Jamaica the GFs 981mb and the Euro 987mb I noticed the Euro shows the system gaining latitude seem like a trof of low pressure pulling the system this system at end of the run
Quoting 300. wunderkidcayman:



UKMET is on board too and the CMC to some extent
Also the NOAA FIM

So
GFS
CMC
EURO
UKMET
FIM NOAA

So just awaiting NAVGEM

CMC is on board but much weaker as it has it making landfall over Honduras and crossing it into Belize probably.
305. ackee
Quoting 300. wunderkidcayman:



UKMET is on board too and the CMC to some extent
Also the NOAA FIM

So
GFS
CMC
EURO
UKMET
FIM NOAA

So just awaiting NAVGEM
I think how strong the system his when it approach the windward and at what latitude could have determine a lot down the road for this system
Big cutoff low exhibits a non-tropical surface reflection north of Bermuda on the 0z ECMWF. It shows Matthew bypassing it, but if that becomes a permanent feature on the model (unlikely), it could have some big poleward implications down the line. You'd have to have a tropical cyclone moving pretty far south of the islands to avoid getting sucked into that.
Quoting 303. ackee:

Wow 240 hours both the euro and the GFS show a hurricane somewhere south of Jamaica the GFs 981mb and the Euro 987mb I noticed the Euro shows the system gaining latitude seem like a trof of low pressure pulling the system this system at end of the run


Id say it's your bog standard October Caribbean hurricane

Quoting 304. allancalderini:

CMC is on board but much weaker as it has it making landfall over Honduras and crossing it into Belize probably.


Maybe but I'm leaning more to the idea of it getting tugged NW in the NW Caribbean and into the GOM if we were in JUN/JUL/AUG then I'd be more inclined to agree with Hon/Belize


Quoting 305. ackee:




Yeah I do think it won't do much till it gets closer to the Windwards and with that I don't think it would get pulled much to the N until much later in the Caribbean
quiet tonight
Quoting 308. Tampa969mlb:

quiet tonight


I bet 5 days to a week from now it won't be near as quiet as it is now
310. JRRP7

I told you so
311. JRRP7

well see you at night
I hope we still have this kind of consensus when the system is in the southeastern Caribbean next week; it's still about 2 weeks to the US. Making me nervous. >_>
Good morning everyone, I think I saw an ugly low rider, not a pretty Cat.
Quoting 310. JRRP7:


I told you so


Can you remind me what you were saying

Quoting 312. KoritheMan:

I hope we still have this kind of consensus when the system is in the southeastern Caribbean next week; it's still about 2 weeks to the US. Making me nervous. >_>


I think we will

Yeah well it's less than 2 weeks away from the Caribbean if anything it's getting closer to the 1 week mark now
Louisiana? Big problem.


Quoting 312. KoritheMan:

I hope we still have this kind of consensus when the system is in the southeastern Caribbean next week; it's still about 2 weeks to the US. Making me nervous. >_>
good/morning....anticipation
Quoting 309. wunderkidcayman:



I bet 5 days to a week from now it won't be near as quiet as it is now


Its gonna be worse due to the comment overload :P
Is this are the expectations I hope it hit Venezuela lightly and dissipate. It's a life threatening event if not.

Quoting 302. AldreteMichael:



I don't know what would worry me more, it's max winds or the MASSIVE size. It would be devastating for sure...but it's so far outward in time that it's not so worrying.
I just want a birthday/Halloween storm again. Sandy as horrible as this sounds was likely one of the best presents I had ever gotten lol. I remember my dad.... We had four days knowing it was coming. He refuses to really do much. That afternoon the trees are really swaying around, leaves blowing sideways through the lawns. He asks me, "Should we be doing something about this?" I almost started laughing. I feel rambly this am.
Quoting 315. ETFRIEND:

Louisiana? Big problem.





I just want to see the major hurricane drought end, partially to finally shut this blog up. I don't care where it ends up.
I'am not believing anything these models show.At one point both were forecasting majors out of Hermine and Karl.
pouch 39 rapid mover across the atlantic no sign of a stall in the nw carib.?
Quoting 321. washingtonian115:

I'am not believing anything these models show.At one point both were forecasting majors out of Hermine and Karl.


Well they aren't explicit intensity guidance anyways. :P
Quoting 323. KoritheMan:



Well they aren't explicit intensity guidance anyways. :P
Knowing the theme this year I wouldn't be surprised if this wave moves really fast and would have to wait until the Western Caribbean to develop before crashing into central America.
Quoting 324. washingtonian115:

Knowing the theme this year I wouldn't be surprised if this wave moves really fast and would have to wait until the Western Caribbean to develop before crashing into central America.


I'ma play like Drak and just come out and say it:

If we get a viable tropical cyclone past Haiti moving into the western Caribbean Sea under the current forecast z500 from the GFS and ECMWF, you WILL get a major hurricane. Diffluent easterlies under a continental ridge will not produce shear barring the appearance of a cutoff low.

Not a prediction. :P
6z GFS not bad as I thought for being more north. :D
The GFS is showing a weak upper-level trough -- more a cutoff low - in the western Gulf of Mexico; it was there in the 0z run, too. This wouldn't shear a strong system, but it might bend the track more poleward in the Gulf of Mexico.
what the gfs has been showing is that the runs which are further north before the islands develop quicker.. I suspect the only inhibiting factor for this storm is latitude
The NHC will begin to up their 5 day probabilities significantly by 8
heading to latin america in a week. keep an eye on pouch 39. gfs reminds me of Gert 93 maybe stronger
Quoting 328. java162:

what the gfs has been showing is that the runs which are further north before the islands develop quicker.. I suspect the only inhibiting factor for this storm is latitude


I'd go with a sharp tropical wave axis or perhaps a weak tropical depression/storm moving just north of Barbados. After that, I really don't know.
And the blog spits out a few more comments...gotta love it...LOL
Hoping Karl remains a weak TS and goes well to the East of Bermuda and Lindy.


Quoting 259. Barefootontherocks:

Shallow. Did you feel the quake?

Ps. ...We will tune in tomorrow afternoon for your answer. :/


No shake just a big noise.
335. ackee
Gfs 6z is showing this system will strength from 50 west onwards it been a while a storm develop before enter the carribbean and move through as hurricane I think Sunday Monday latitude and how the system is developing could give clue as to what this system potential could be
6z GFS pretty much Hurricane Ivan Part 2
06Z GFS wants to put the Low-rider into the Hermine affected area.
If there's anything good about the 6z run (aside from obviously being fantasy land) is that where the storm ends up is very sparsely populated. I should know; I was there for Hermine. Franklin County has a population of like 10,000, and the county just north of that is the least populated in the state of Florida.
Like I thought last night Karl will look very healthy this morning, well on its way to becoming the seasons 5th Hurricane and will likely be one later today.

Last nights 00Z run had it going to the flooded areas of La.
Quoting 341. PensacolaDoug:

Last nights 00Z run had it going to the flooded areas of La.



60-80 mph squalls for me with a side serving of 360 degree home fishing. :P
its been a while since we've seen a forecasted path like this.
Quoting 340. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Like I thought last night Karl will look very healthy this morning, well on its way to becoming the seasons 5th Hurricane and will likely be one later today.




looks like a JOG more W
Quoting 344. thetwilightzone:



looks like a JOG more W


I agree that it did slightly, if it did Bermuda will have greater effects, they should finish up preparations soon.
Pretty eerie when euro and GFS show hurricanes in the carribbean in early october..... A major hitting the U.S. is still within the realm of possibility, and even more rare if it form in the east carribean or east of the islands. most strong storms that hit the U.S. in October are from the w carribbean and are hooked northward
347. elioe
Louisiana doom has transformed into Apalachicola doom.

Looks like the entire west coast of Florida would see some effects from this as it moves toward the Big Bend.

Quoting 333. pingon:

Hoping Karl remains a weak TS and goes well to the East of Bermuda and Lindy.




Karl is probably 85 mph by now. It's intensifying so freaking fast the pressure is 994, which is down from 999 an hour ago. And the satellite signature is lagging a lot, beacuse of the intensification.
The wave we will watch is in the water now, odds still 0/20 at 8am outlook. 97L should be here probably tonight or tomorrow.
Quoting 350. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The wave we will watch is in the water now, odds still 0/20 at 8am outlook. 97L should be here probably tonight or tomorrow.
I would raise that a bit.
Quoting 351. HurricaneAndre:

I would raise that a bit.


NHC probably will next two, will see what afternoon models say, by tomorrow though I think we will have an invest.
Quoting 347. elioe:

Louisiana doom has transformed into Apalachicola doom.




which will turn into Tampa doom
Quoting 336. Walshy:

6z GFS pretty much Hurricane Ivan Part 2


Mmhmm. Fantasy land details aside, the general Ivan-type track forming is unnerving.
Quoting 348. fmbill:

Looks like the entire west coast of Florida would see some effects from this as it moves toward the Big Bend.




Watch the midday runs drop it! I would not be surprised.
00Z UKMET developed two Atlantic systems:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.4N 18.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2016 120 13.4N 18.8W 1007 33
1200UTC 28.09.2016 132 14.6N 20.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 29.09.2016 144 15.8N 24.3W 1009 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.0N 55.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 132 13.0N 55.5W 1009 31
0000UTC 29.09.2016 144 13.4N 58.7W 1006 33



Also the upcoming 12Z model cycle should be full of dropsondes from the Global Hawk. The 06Z GFS had 17.


Quoting 354. ProPoly:



Mmhmm. Fantasy land details aside, the general Ivan-type track forming is unnerving.


nope Charley part 2
358. elioe
Quoting 353. Hester122:



which will turn into Tampa doom


Maybe. Ensembles are all over the place, ranging from Puerto Rico doom to Cabo Gracias a Dios doom. Majority of solutions enter the Gulf of Mexico, and after that, the solutions range only from Tuxpan doom to Fort Myers doom.
Good Morning!

Although the ACE for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is relatively low (so far), the 12th tropical storm (Lisa) was named on Sept 20th.

We are currently above average for the number of named storms in the Atlantic basin .. forming before Oct 1.

Karl appears to be getting better organized south of Bermuda - possibly becoming the 5th hurricane in the Atlantic.

Lisa - the 12th named tropical storm is hanging in there.

It will be interesting to see if we get Matthew or Nicole forming in the near future!




LOL. If the initial model runs ever came true, the entire sates of Fl,MS, LA, TX, NC etc, would not exist by now!!!!
Looks like a little westward jog. Good to pulse some more swell toward the east coast for the weekend. If Karl had turned abruptly NNE, the wave lovers would have been skunked. We'll get a little bump and hopefully a little more than expected.

Quoting 340. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Like I thought last night Karl will look very healthy this morning, well on its way to becoming the seasons 5th Hurricane and will likely be one later today.


The forecast for future 97L is still very uncertain.
Quoting 363. CaribBoy:

The forecast for future 97L is still very uncertain.

It'll be in the caribbean, that we know. from there things get very complicated
Think the windwards will get impacted .

06z GEFS Ensembles.
Hello is the blog working? Can anyone see this?
Quoting 367. washingtonian115:

Hello is the blog working? Can anyone see this?


Yes, it's October of 2021. Your comment just posted.

Red Alert in effect from Louisiana to Florida for a potential storm next week. Hope the blog is up for the challenge.
Quoting 368. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, it's October of 2021. Your comment just posted.

Red Alert in effect from Louisiana to Florida for a potential storm next week. Hope the blog is up for the challenge.

LOL models are junk more than 3 days out. Period end of story.
Quoting 369. weaverwxman:

LOL models are junk more than 3 days out. Period end of story.


Models have been showing a system passing near Bermuda for over a week. ????
Quoting 367. washingtonian115:

Hello is the blog working? Can anyone see this?


Nope
Quoting 370. Sfloridacat5:



Models were showing a system passing near Bermuda for over a week. ????
pure luck on there part that far out how many models showed it 1 or 2? 10 or more was it Karl or something else how many future runs dropped it then picked it back up again. A lot of our local meteorologist run a one day model specifically for their viewing area rarely does it pan out even close and that's a 24 houre specific house model. Please explain.
Looks like by tomorrow I would think, we will have a new invest....I forget which number it would be....94L?
Quoting 372. weaverwxman:

pure luck on there part that far out how many models showed it 1 or 2? 10 or more was it Karl or something else how many future runs dropped it then picked it back up again. A lot of our local meteorologist run a one day model specifically for their viewing area rarely does it pan out even close and that's a 24 houre specific house model. Please explain.


The GFS and the Euro are both quite accurate once a system has formed. They can predict a general area of landfall several days out.
They do it consistently.

We're not talking about general weather forecasting 24 hours from now. That is a completely different type of forecasting.
Quoting 374. Sfloridacat5:



The GFS and the Euro are both quite accurate once a system has formed. They can predict a general area of landfall several days out.
They do it consistently.

We're not talking about general weather forecasting 24 hours from now. That is a completely different type of forecasting.

I understand but I was stating that exact fact 1 or 2 days out after a storm has formed all models preform fairly well. But the long range which a lot of people have some faith in are usually wrong.
Quoting 374. Sfloridacat5:



The GFS and the Euro are both quite accurate once a system has formed. They can predict a general area of landfall several days out.
They do it consistently.

We're not talking about general weather forecasting 24 hours from now. That is a completely different type of forecasting.



Honestly, If you recall Katrina was forecast to be a hurricane and landfall in the area the models showed about 7 days out I believe. The models just did not show it to become that strong that far out.
Good morning everyone (if this post even shows up while it's still morning). Healthy model consensus between the ECMWF/GFS for a tropical storm to develop sometime next week in the Caribbean. However, as everyone knows, model support is a very fickle thing and we have plenty of time to watch this system evolve (if it ever does).
Quoting 355. PensacolaDoug:



Watch the midday runs drop it! I would not be surprised.

Hahahaha! Yup! That would be typical for this season. And the resultant uproar on this blog would follow shortly after.
Those that have watched these things for a while KNOW THO when we see model consensus so close between the GFS and EURO .....its something we better watch with both eyes open!
It's still really hot
Quoting 376. TampaSpin:



Honestly, If you recall Katrina was forecast to be a hurricane and landfall in the area the models showed about 7 days out I believe. The models just did not show it to become that strong that far out.
I believe that because of where Katrina formed closer to the coast where the models had real time data to work with the results were more predictable. IMHO
Quoting 357. Hester122:



nope Charley part 2


The GFS proposal is something more established, lower and longer track than Charley. Obv could go over Cuba rather than the Channel. Ivan is a good analog for the type of system, if obv not terminal track or strength (which are up for grabs).
Quoting 380. 19N81W:

It's still really hot


It's been ten to fifteen degrees above normal for the past few weeks here in Chicagoland, too.
Quoting 375. weaverwxman:

I understand but I was stating that exact fact 1 or 2 days out after a storm has formed all models preform fairly well. But the long range which a lot of people have some faith in are usually wrong.


I use the long range forecasts to get a sense of the dynamics for potential. I do not make a lot of adjustments to my preparation status based on them, but I do begin keeping an eye on things. And for my organization, I have many folks that rely on forecast information for their decisions in their work schedules. Though not real accurate, we really have to begin taking steps at least 7 days out or we will be way behind the preparation curve.
Tampa thanks for the light banter. I love this site I come here almost every day during season because I am to lazy to do all the work the bloggers do for us every day, you included. I take it all with a grain of salt. The only time I pay attention is when the NHC puts us under a Warning. Having said that I hope everyone has a good weekend. its off to work for me so I will check back on Monday. I don't see getting on this weekend as I have a 3 year old grandson that I get to have for my weekend......:)
They really should issue a Hurricane watch in Bermuda just to be safe
Quoting 384. fmbill:



I use the long range forecasts to get a sense of the dynamics for potential. I do not make a lot of adjustments to my preparation status based on them, but I do begin keeping an eye on things. And for my organization, I have many folks that rely on forecast information for their decisions in their work schedules. Though not real accurate, we really have to begin taking steps at least 7 days out or we will be way behind the preparation curve.


This is the rub. People in the real world *have* to watch 5-10 day potential developments.
Quoting 363. CaribBoy:

The forecast for future 97L is still very uncertain.

That was funny! First laugh of the day ;-)
I will also say, the NHC is doing a fantastic job forecasting Karl
Quoting 338. PensacolaDoug:

06Z GFS wants to put the Low-rider into the Hermine affected area.



#HereWeGoAgain
Models are useless. They never go where I want them to go.

Quoting 341. PensacolaDoug:

Last nights 00Z run had it going to the flooded areas of La.
Earlier run had it going to Texas,then up the East Coast.now Florida.,I guess I will wait til the Euro gives a clue in 4 days.

Cariboy, it's time to fly to Bermuda ! They get tropical storm and or hurricane up there ....
Quoting 348. fmbill:

Looks like the entire west coast of Florida would see some effects from this as it moves toward the Big Bend.




You can't go by this at all. The model runs this far out are all fantasy land. To be taken with a grain of sand or salt.
Quoting 393. Grothar:

Models are useless. They never go where I want them to go.

Happens all the time
398. ackee
If this wave does develop the blog will explode with comments but the Atlantic as not been like it used to be systems as struggle along or failed to develop
Quoting 348. fmbill:

Looks like the entire west coast of Florida would see some effects from this as it moves toward the Big Bend.




Most likely good ol wind shear and dry air will come into play at some point and rip this system into pieces before it can do any damage. That's just the way things have been going the last few years with these systems. But mabey this one will make it through.
Jeez....Taiwan for the third time in 2 weeks? Life is not fair!

Bumpy week-end ahead for SE Texas.

Quoting 398. ackee:

If this wave does develop the blog will explode with comments but the Atlantic as not been like it used to be systems as struggle along or failed to develop


It will explode, but not with comments. Just the explosion.
404. ackee
If this wave does develop the blog will explode with comments but the Atlantic as not been like it used to be systems as struggle along or failed to develop
Need the Euro ensembles to get on board with gfs ensembles for the threat to really increase for future 97L it's wait and watch how it does the next few days. The name Matthew is already giving me a slight chill for some reason.
A sample of of some GFS ensemble members. They are the scariest I could find.





Quoting 406. Grothar:

A sample of of some GFS ensemble members. They are the scariest I could find.








What should we set the DOOMCON at, Gro?
Quoting 380. 19N81W:

It's still really hot
That is an understatement. The heat in Cayman now is unreal. I don't remember it being this hot at this time of year in quite a while.
Karl might be trying to get an eye to pop out then again could be a little dry spot

Quoting 401. pingon:

Jeez....Taiwan for the third time in 2 weeks? Life is not fair!




The Hurricane God is angry with Taiwan.
Quoting 407. CybrTeddy:



What should we set the DOOMCON at, Gro?


GROCON 2. We all know what can happen when something like this enters the western Caribbean. Honestly, I hope the doom models are wrong. It really could be serious.

At this time, the EURO expects a northern turn in the central-western Caribbean which could impact Florida and the Bahamas. The GFS, currently, keeps it further west, due to a stronger ridge before turn more north.

The system is moving very quickly, so it could be near or in the Antilles by Tuesday.
Karl is beasting!!!
Good Morning; with Lisa, we are actually up to 12 Atlantic storms this season and we could end up with a few more before the season is over (14) which is actually consistent with an above-average season and the pre-season predictions for this year.

The good news, is that none of these storms this year have struck the Caribbean or US as major storms and that the "major" drought now continues primarily due to the struggling tropical storm issue we continue to see in the Central Atlantic and Caribbean now for several years.

This season is not a bust by any stretch of the imagination but many might consider any season a bust unless a major inflicts death and destruction somewhere on a populated area; that is actually a blessing in light of 12 storms so far this year.

And my blog buttons are working very smooth this morning with a "shinny" new look to the refresh button; did a new server or blog connection come online since yesterday?...................................... :)
Still october and november for the W Caribbean and Gulf storms ...
Hello test!
I'm seeing a strange positive from the blog slowness. Seems that trolls are fewer (trolls aren't patient?) thus, the quality/content seems better this am.

I'm interested in the models once an invest is declared or more development occurs. Until then...entertain me with your 240+ hour fantasyland. Which, BTW, I chuckled when I saw 'FantasyLand IPA' in my store's fridge. Had to buy it, and it is surprisingly smooth for an IPA.
420. elioe
Quoting 401. pingon:



Storms beginning with "Meg" tend to be exceptionally strong and dangerous.




Karl is stronger then 60 mph I believe nearing Hurricane Strength, Cone shifted a little more east of Bermuda which is good news, I do however think that watch should be a warning since there could be more wobbles west.

Quoting 420. elioe:



Storms beginning with "Meg" tend to be exceptionally strong and dangerous.






Such as the last Megi, for example.
Quoting 419. Grothar:






Taiwan is having a rough time, targeted by a cyclone every week it seems like..
Quoting 409. Grothar:





Been looking at this virtual reality for a couple days now.
Of course this will disappear from modeling come the time this isn't looking in the glass ball anymore. But what if not. So it's the 23rd of September 2016 and this output, for around the 5th of October, beware it is virtual reality, it is a spook, it is pure fantasy, nevertheless has me now a teeny weeny bit scared.
Possible future Matthew has lost some convection upon entering the water. Will it refire convection? SAL should not be an issue at its lower latitude.
Quoting 420. elioe:



Storms beginning with "Meg" tend to be exceptionally strong and dangerous.







It goes well with the prefix Mega (M). It make sense to have an abbreviation MC meaning Mega/Major Cyclone and MS (Mega Storm).
Models are not a forecast,


Esp one frame from one run.


We look for consensus between the big 4 for insight downstream in time.


That point is always relevant.


Take a look at the current Nola nws discussion




Previous discussion... /issued 358 am CDT Friday Sep 23 2016/

Short term...there were a few storms that developed yesterday
but as soon as the sun went down this activity quickly abated. For
the rest of the night skies were generally clear to mostly clear and
by 8z temps ranged from near 70 to the mid 70s for much of the area.
One exception was the southshore which still had temps near 80.

No really changes in the short term as the ridge will continue to
dominate the area. As previous forecaster mentioned a weak cut off
low over the Carolinas may try to retrograde and slide under the
ridge possibly helping to increase rain chances on sun. As for today
and Sat isolated convection is probably about all we will really
see. As for temps we will continue to be above normal through the
weekend. Only hope is if convection develops. /Cab/

Long term...the extended portion of the forecast doesn't get any
easier. Many uncertainties with how the upper pattern will evolve
and eventual cold front next week. Interesting that both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) show a split flow pattern developing with the base of the l/W
trough closing off but how they handle the northern stream energy
and ridge over the Gulf is providing far varying sensible weather.
Will once again lean towards the Euro with a slower solution and
slightly lower rain chances next week compared to the GFS. As has
been the case confidence is still rather low.

As the l/W trough works across the Continental Divide the base of
the trough will begin to dig and break off with a cut off low
developing while the northern half will lift across the US/Canadian
border. Depending one how far these two features move apart (how big
is the split) will have sizable impacts on the forecast. As we are
going with the slower solution believe the northern stream energy
will move well into Canada and trough axis will move east through
the Great Lakes while the ridge over the sern Continental U.S. Is never
completely suppressed. With the cut off low sitting down into the
dessert SW and northwestern mx a ridge working east out of the pac
will ride over the low across The Rockies and reinforce the ridge
over the plains and lower MS valley Tue. The pattern will become
more amplified mid to late next week with a ridge axis extending
north-south through the central Continental U.S. From the western Gulf and into
ND. The trough over the northeastern Continental U.S. Will deepen and dig
across the Atlantic Seaboard. This should eventually send a backdoor
cold front through, possibly as early as Thu. Not expecting much in
the way of colder air but definitely drier air associated with this
front (if it moves through).

With the ridge never quite leaving the region and all of the energy
remaining well off to the north and northeast rain may be a little
more difficult to come by. Still expect isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Mon-Wed but mainly sticking
with 20-30% pops. Temp wise, look for above normal temps to start
the work week but depending on when and if a cold front moves
through we could see temps near normal to slightly below normal,
especially morning lows around mid to late next week.

Main caveat is if the previous European model (ecmwf) and current GFS are right then
we could see a stronger cold front earlier in the week with much
better rain chances either on Mon or Tue. That said slower really
seems to be the better choice. /Cab/

45 dropsondes in the 12Z GFS



test. 11:19EST
Another blog hole?


So where is this wave everybody is talking about? I don't see any wave off the coast of Africa. Do you? I saw it yesterday but today it's not there. Oh I get it. Must be playing hide and seek. Now you see me, now you don't. Kinda like the model runs. Here today, gone tomorrow.
Karl organising quite nicely for once! Will be interesting to watch his evolution today as we'll have recon flights frequently. If wind shear does indeed lessen over Karl's center today, he could put on a show.



Hope he won't cause too much trouble for Bermuda.

Big Megi. Click to enlarge.
Quoting 430. MonsterTrough:

test. 11:19EST

Showed up on Blog at 11:45ish. I left wunderground to look at tropical maps/research on another site due to slowness. Saw their ads, lots of them, not wunderground's ads.
Quoting 432. HurriHistory:



So where is this wave everybody is talking about? I don't see any wave off the coast of Africa. Do you? I saw it yesterday but today it's not there. Oh I get it. Must be playing hide and seek. Now you see me, now you don't. Kinda like the model runs. Here today, gone tomorrow.

POOF:


"How to keep climate and weather pithy, relevant, and funny" by the great asset of WU and other fine organizations: GROTHAR! Out around Christmas this year for the low price of "how much gold and silver do you have?" Critics call it climate gold, adding; "We don't want spaghetti runs to be redirected right over our house!" Tom in Oklahoma, gave it only two stars and was quickly pelted by baseball sized hail the next day; he has since given it five stars and one ouch sorry Gro, that hurt.
Impressive GFS ensemble agreement for the potential Caribbean storm.

138 hours out.




252 hours out.

Quoting 432. HurriHistory:

So where is this wave everybody is talking about? I don't see any wave off the coast of Africa. Do you? I saw it yesterday but today it's not there. Oh I get it. Must be playing hide and seek. Now you see me, now you don't. Kinda like the model runs. Here today, gone tomorrow.



It's not expected to show any impressive development the next couple of days.
In MIMIC some turning starts to evolve (this display is always lagging behind for some hours):


Quoting 428. Patrap:

Models are not a forecast,




I respectfully disagree, it is a forecast output by the computers and actual humans who input the physics, calculus, and data into the model. On TropicalTidbits, Levi Cowan's website he has a tab listed "Forecast Models."
Here comes our friend

Not related to weather but related to everyone on here that participates on this Blog from a new study; if you go back far enough in time, everyone on here is related.....................................Hello Family.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/almost-all -living-people-outside-africa-trace-back-single-mi gration-over-50000-years


Almost all living people outside of Africa trace back to a single migration more than 50,000 years ago

Quoting 436. pingon:


POOF:





Poof is right. It's just gone gone gone.
444. N3EG
Quoting 422. CybrTeddy:



Such as the last Megi, for example.


I keep hearing the name Megi over and over, it seems. Don't they retire typhoon names?

Of course, who can forget the name LIONROCK...
445. VR46L
Quoting 407. CybrTeddy:



What should we set the DOOMCON at, Gro?


aw ! You remember the boyz of the board !

Quoting 412. Grothar:



GROCON 2. We all know what can happen when something like this enters the western Caribbean. Honestly, I hope the doom models are wrong. It really could be serious.


Ahem ..... I thought it was copywritted DOOM:CON
Kid of like HAARP for trolls.

(Puts tinfoil hat on).

Quoting 418. MonsterTrough:

I'm seeing a strange positive from the blog slowness. Seems that trolls are fewer (trolls aren't patient?) thus, the quality/content seems better this am.

I'm interested in the models once an invest is declared or more development occurs. Until then...entertain me with your 240+ hour fantasyland. Which, BTW, I chuckled when I saw 'FantasyLand IPA' in my store's fridge. Had to buy it, and it is surprisingly smooth for an IPA.
Quoting 441. VAbeachhurricanes:

Here comes our friend


Windwards
What happened to the Cayman bloggers?
I'm going with a Tropical Depression by Monday or Tuesday.
As to the recent and earlier blog issues here,

This may,and I stress,may b relevant

Domain name servers resolve IP and name requests.

For instance, when I type in yadayada.com and a server directs me there. These name servers are organized in a hierarchy so that my request goes to the lowest level server possible to resolve the address.
This keeps the top or root level from resolving all traffic, and hopefully prevents traffic overloads.

Sometimes, the root servers are targeted.
Here are the root level servers.

a href="
http://www.root-servers.org/" target="_blank">www..root-servers.org



Here is an example of anomalous traffic



.

Root Server Operators rootops roll patrap anon anon presstomeco
June 29, 2016


Events of 2016-06-25

Abstract

On June 25, 2016 all of the Internet Domain Name System's root name
servers received a high rate of TCP SYN and ICMP traffic. This
report explains the nature and impact of the incident.

While it's common for the root name servers to see anomalous traffic,
including high query loads for varying periods of time, this event
was large, noticeable via external monitoring systems, and fairly
unique in nature, so this report is offered in the interests of
transparency.


🌞🌎🌊🎑🌍🌃
... sigh. Test?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hurricane Ivan comes to mind with the GFS predicted track.
I'm gonna have to see it to believe it
there have been crazy storms this sept here in e cen florida. a couple days ago i reported we had 12"+ for Julia and a couple days following. the last two nights we added 7" + with incredible light shows. severe and intense lightning. friends had their norwegian plastered by lightning pieces of the tree were all over the yard.
Quoting 440. GTstormChaserCaleb:





I should have stressed the point of one run from a individual model is not a forecast.


Every run on a invest and up offer insight into a solution.


Like folks wondering why tropical forecast points change.

They change as the track updates.


I observe the end line trends on systems as well as the run genesis start point.


For example,like when we hear, "the whole run is garbage cuz the initialization point was off".


That's as falseassumptin usually, as the pouch has a axis too.

Being off by 3 to 5nm from the true center or pouch axis is not going to matter as the run will still be valid.


That's why model skill increases as we add more data Perrin...like recon sniffs in and above.


Its more my opine I guess.

Just lime any single line in the output spread.

🌞


Quoting 455. washingtonian115:

I'm gonna have to see it to believe it

And if it happens, too early in Autumn for a recurve that far south?