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Degraded and Disheveled, Arctic Sea Ice Ties for Second-Lowest Extent on Record

By: Bob Henson 9:46 PM GMT on September 16, 2016

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced on Thursday that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has apparently hit its summer minimum. The value of 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles) reached on September 10 comes in just behind the record-low extent of 2012 and in a statistical tie with 2007 for second place (see Figure 1). Although refreezing has begun, it’s possible that a late burst of melting could lead to an even lower value in the next few days. This year’s minimum came in below the 4.38 million sq km predicted in August by the median of 39 outlooks submitted by participants in the Sea Ice Prediction Network.


Figure 1. Each year’s minimum in Arctic sea ice extent from 1979, when satellite measurement began, through 2016 (assuming that the September 10 minimum holds). Units are millions of square kilometers. Image credit: Zack Labe, @Zlabe.

Plenty of ice loss without Old Sol’s help
This summer’s polar weather didn’t fit the classic template for major ice loss, which makes the near-record depletion all the more striking and concerning. In 2007, a record-smashing minimum was achieved through weeks of round-the-clock sunshine, together with the Arctic Dipole pattern--an atmospheric setup that creates winds that compact sea ice and shove it to lower latitudes through the Fram Strait between Greenland and Norway. This year got off to a phenomenal head start, as winter temperatures north of the Arctic Circle were far higher than anything on record. Then the weather turned largely cloudy during the crucial period from late June into August, staving off what might otherwise have been a minimum even lower than 2012’s. Still, as NSIDC noted, “the upper ocean was quite warm this summer and ocean-driven melting is important during late summer.” Several weeks of intense storminess in August may have helped to churn up warmer water across the western Arctic, fostering melt from below.

“A large portion of the anomalously low ice can be attributed to the unusual winter/spring,” said Zack Labe, a Ph.D. student analyzing sea ice at the University of California, Irvine. “If we’d had a classic Arctic Dipole pattern this summer, I have no doubt we would have quickly approached or surpassed 2012.”


Figure 2. Comparison of sea ice concentration on September 5 of the years 2012 through 2016 (upper left to lower center), as derived from AMSR2 satellite data (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). Lighter areas denote a higher concentration of sea ice. Sea ice extent refers to the amount of ocean with data cells that are at least 15 percent ice-covered. Image credit: JAXA, courtesy A-Team/Arctic Sea Ice Forum.


Figure 3.  Large amounts of open water can be seen in ice extending to the vicinity of the North Pole in this view from NASA’s Terra satellite collected on September 8, 2016. Image credit: NASA Worldview, courtesy slow wing, Arctic Sea Ice Blog.

”Rubble” near the North Pole
Sea ice extent (the amount of ocean with at least 15% ice coverage) is just one way to gauge Arctic sea ice--albeit a useful and important one--and the minimum summer extent is only one data point in that record. Just as you need to know more than the number of named storms to assess the fury of an Atlantic hurricane season, it’s helpful to look at the Arctic sea ice in three dimensions and across the calendar to gauge its true health.

In that broader view, Arctic sea ice is in terrible shape. The amount of multiyear ice--especially sections that survive for five or more years, serving as a bulwark against year-to-year ice loss--has dropped precipitously in the last 10 years. Huge swaths of ice that “survived” the summer of 2016 in terms of extent were actually riddled with gaping cracks and gaps. Figure 2 above shows the pockmarked state of this year’s early-September ice as compared with the previous four years. The eastern Arctic (top part of images) was especially ravaged, as shown more closely in Figure 3 above. Ice described by some observers as “rubble” extended to the vicinity of the North Pole, and a large expanse of open water could be seen behind the Swedish icebreaker Oden as it was moored to an ice floe within two miles of the North Pole on August 28. Areas of open water do occur at times near the North Pole, but the vast expanse of compromised high-latitude ice this year is stunning.


Figure 4. The yacht Northabout cuts through ice-studded waters. This year the Northabout is completing a circumnavigation of the Arctic Ocean as a way to increase attention to the effects of climate change on the region. Image credit: Polar Ocean Challenge.

A disturbingly successful trip around the Arctic
Both the Northeast and Northwest Passages opened up yet again this summer, a dual milestone that was first recorded in 2008. As part of a project called Polar Ocean Challenge, a 50-foot yacht called Northabout has become the first ship known to sail through both passages in a single summer. The yacht is now heading around the south side of Greenland en route to its home base in England. It took the Northabout a mere 14 days to complete the Northwest Passage, where the crew encountered ice only two times. “Whilst we are all delighted to have succeeded, it is extremely worrying to see this lack of ice so starkly,” said expedition leader David Templeman-Adams.

At the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, Neven Acropolis reflected on this odd summer: “I always thought that it would take extreme weather conditions as seen in 2007 for a melting season to end really low: Lots of open skies, warm winds and continuous compaction, just weeks and weeks of the same kind of weather. But given that there's no let-up in the amount of heat flowing into the Arctic--via air and especially ocean--other set-ups can be just as destructive. It will probably be a back-and-forth of high pressure (open skies) and low pressure (dispersal, mixing) that will lead to new records, and eventually an ice-free Arctic…Whatever it is we’re doing to stop this from getting worse in decades to come, we need to do it faster.”

For an update on tropical happenings in the Atlantic and Pacific, see my post from this morning with Jeff Masters. We’ll be back with our next update by Saturday afternoon.

Bob Henson

Arctic Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks
Here is a quote from the NHC 5:00 PM Discussion on Julia:
"In the next day or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west by the low-level ridge to the north."

The "5:00 PM" coordinates are 30.8N & 75.7 W. It is currently 30.5N & 76.00 West (5:30 PM EST). The NHC graphics shows a slight SW dip which Julia has now passed followed by NW path followed by dissipation. It looks to be moving faster than predicted. Unless Julia stalls right now it looks like a busted forecast.





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
415 PM CDT Friday Sep 16 2016

Synopsis...

Latest surface analysis continue to show the ridge axis from
northeast Continental U.S. To northeast Gulf, more or less between Julia and
broad area of low pressure over west Gulf/Texas coast.
Precipitable water plots showed a moisture axis from central
Florida to southeast Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast with
values between 2 and 2.2 inches. Dry air was located from the mid
Atlantic states to central Alabama with values between 1.25 and
1.5 inches. Upper air analysis a weak ridge axis from Baja
California to Florida. Southwest flow was present from southwest
Continental U.S. To Great Lakes and positively tilted trough axis from
Minnesota to Southern California.

&&

Short range...

Julia will continue to meander off the East Coast. Dry air on the
west side of the associated circulation will continue to retreat
away from the forecast area. The weak flow around the broad low
over the west Gulf will advect in deep moisture through the
weekend. Occasional lightning strikes have occurred with activity
over the last few days. Cape values were 2400 j/kg this morning
with convt around 84. Therefore, convection will start early again
Saturday morning with pretty good coverage by noon. No surface focus
or strong lift for widespread thunderstorms, will highlight more
showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms for Saturday and
Sunday. With the main trough pressing southeast, a large area of
marginal risk of heavy rainfall from the lower Mississippi Valley
to Ohio Valley, a general amount 1 to 3 inches is possible through
Monday with higher amounts around Lake Pontchartrain and
Mississippi coast.

Long range...

The main trough axis will continue to press east to the mid
Mississippi Valley by late Sunday with surface push over the Ohio
and mid Mississippi Valley. This feature along with the frontal
zone will maintain a chance of rain on Monday, a few strong storms
with gusty winds are possible across the north half of the
forecast Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Dry air in mid layer
will push south across the forecast area early Tuesday with pw
values to 1 inch. No real height falls and slightly cooler night
time temps across the north half forecast next week will be
attributed to dry air. We will take any cooling. Moisture from
will surge back from the east by Thursday bringing back a chance
rain for Thursday and Friday.
thanks great important update have a good weekend
Quoting 2. GainesvilleGator:

Here is a quote from the NHC 5:00 PM Discussion on Julia:
"In the next day or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west by the low-level ridge to the north."

The "5:00 PM" coordinates are 30.8N & 75.7 W. It is currently 30.5N & 76.00 West (5:30 PM EST). The NHC graphics shows a slight SW dip which Julia has now passed followed by NW path followed by dissipation. It looks to be moving faster than predicted. Unless Julia stalls right now it looks like a busted forecast.


This would be... ohhhh... *looks up Julia archive* The 12th time they messed this one up. Some storms test them. This one obliterated them. At least it wasn't a powerful system where that would have actually meant something.
that sheared area northeast of the windwards is finally moving west. also to note ex 92 is now drawing moisture from the boc good luck all
Wow! Mr. Henson, troubling news from the Arctic. I really feel for these guys. I hope their species will survive through this Global Warming.



I'm in the cone..I'm out of the cone..I'm in the cone..I'm out of the cone..says everyone in coastal NC looking at the NHC updates for Julia

5:00 pm NHC discussion..

The intensity forecast remains low confidence. Currently, Julia is
in an environment of 25-35 kt of westerly vertical shear, and this
hostile environment should continue for the next 48 hours. After
that time, the guidance remains in good agreement that the shear
should decrease. However, it is in poor agreement as to what that
means for the cyclone. The Canadian and UKMET continue to forecast
a stronger system, while the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF forecast Julia to
dissipate or remain weak. Given the current trends, there is no
change to the dissipation scenario used in the intensity forecast.
However, this forecast again is on the low edge of the intensity
guidance, and there remains a chance that Julia will survive and
re-intensify.

Julia appears to finally have stopped its eastward motion, and the
initial motion is now a somewhat uncertain 190/3. In the next day
or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west
by the low-level ridge to the north. After 36 hours, a baroclinic
trough moving into the northeastern United States should weaken the
ridge and allow Julia, or its remnants, to turn northward and
eventually northeastward. There remains a significant spread
between the much faster Canadian and ECMWF models and the slower GFS
and UKMET models. The new forecast track favors a lower solution
and keeps Julia moving at less than 5 kt before dissipation.
Who die? The blog?
I've been in Alaska the past few weeks--just got home yesterday--and spent quite a bit of time listening to locals talk about the rapid changes in their world: melting permafrost, disappearing glaciers, migrating species, and, of course, the incredible decrease in sea ice. I was able to stand on several glaciers and directly compare their current state with old photos and see just how drastically things have changed; I was able to hear old-timers speak wistfully of far better hunting and fishing in the past; I saw firsthand just how many thousands of square miles of taiga have been contorted into "drunken forests" due to the thawing permafrost. It's very sad, and very sobering. Of course, Alaska being a politically "red" state, many of the comments about what was happening were couched in mystery and magic ("I'm not sure what'a going on, but something surely is"), but at last, having confronted head-on the reality of the situation, not even the most hardcore denialist can any longer pretend that nothing is happening.
Does warmer ocean waters in the arctic create larger polynyas? Any oceanography peeps have any insight, I'd like a refreshener.
Quoting 7. George1938:
This would be... ohhhh... *looks up Julia archive* The 12th time they messed this one up. Some storms test them. This one obliterated them. At least it wasn't a powerful system where that would have actually meant something.
Weak systems are much harder to forecast because the connections between low level circulations and mid level circulations are much more chaotic. A strong storm has a strongly coupled circulation between the low and mid levels. That makes them easier to forecast. I get bored when a strong storm develops--if it is not coming my way.
Quoting 13. win1gamegiantsplease:
Does warmer ocean waters in the arctic create larger polynyas? Any oceanography peeps have any insight, I'd like a refreshener.
They certainly would tend to wouldn't they? But I don't think that's the only consideration. What if winds are pushing the ice together? That would close the open areas despite the warmth. It is a complex interaction.
Meanwhile the swirl in the NW Gulf is more distinct this afternoon--and closer to shore. It is running out of time, but interesting to look at on Houston and Lake Charles radars.
GFS is further south.


Crystal Cruise Ship Completes Historic Northwest Passage Arctic Journey
September 16, 2016


(2:30 p.m. EDT) -- Early this morning, Crystal Cruises' Crystal Serenity sailed into New York City to a spectacular sunrise welcome, completing its historic 32-day Northwest Passage journey. The ship became the largest passenger vessel to sail the icy Arctic waters of Canada.

The trip from Anchorage to New York, via the Canadian Arctic and Greenland, had been considered controversial by some, given that the route has traditionally been blocked with ice (a fear that has lessened due to global warming). Canada's version of the Coast Guard, along the U.S., held safety drills and ran through emergency scenarios, in case the 1,070-passenger ship would have to be evacuated.

Passengers and crew agree that the journey went off without a hitch. "The voyage was very successful, and there were no surprises," says Captain Birger J. Vorland. "There was actually less ice than we anticipated." He credited the three years of intense planning that went into the trip, and the expertise of the expedition team on the Ernest Shackleton, an ice-class vessel that accompanied the cruise ship.

"Crystal thought of everything and it couldn't have been better," agreed Nancy Morris, a seasoned world cruiser from Sarasota, Florida.

Inuit Dancers from Ulukhaktok
An Incredible Trip of Firsts

At Pier 88 in New York, travelers spoke of the air of excitement that permeated the entire cruise, from the first day to the last. Both passengers and crew felt they were part of something special, a voyage of firsts.

"I never felt the enthusiasm wane," said Vorland. "Everything clicked. I never experienced an atmosphere like this before in my 38 years at sea." Passengers checked everything off their Arctic wish lists: polar bears, ice, the Northern Lights.

The Zodiac outings were a particular highlight. Jeff Fischer from San Jose, California, said the ship ran Zodiac tours for seven hours the first day the ship encountered polar bears. With 1,000 passengers onboard and Zodiacs that carry 10, the ship made the effort to get everyone out to see the sights. "On one excursion, we were surrounded by humpback whales, spouting and blowing -- it was wonderful," he said. A Zodiac of crewmembers would pull up alongside to offer hot chocolate and coffee

Another highlight were the community visits -- and bringing villagers onboard. Morris enjoyed learning about the locals' way of life, how they got food, oil and clothing from hunted seals and only got one shipment of supplies per year. To prepare, Crystal outlined a code of conduct for passengers as to how to behave in the villages: no photos without asking, no buying of staples from the limited local supply. Crystal donated money and supplies to the local communities, and invited residents onboard. According to Morris, local children got to eat in the Lido buffet and sample the Ben and Jerry's ice cream bar -- their first-ever ice cream.

In addition, Crystal had geologists, biologists, naturalists and professional photographers onboard to give lectures, accompany tours and interact with passengers.

Arctic Ice in Victoria Strait
Safety First

Safety was clearly the first priority on this trip. "My number one job is to keep everyone safe," said Captain Vorland. He said the toughest challenge was actually uncertainty. He knew it was supposed to be a "good" ice year (i.e. little ice), but the concern remained until the ship was actually sailing the Northwest Passage and finding not much ice at all. Still, "we always had to keep our guard up," he said, "and I was very happy when we docked here at Pier 88 [in New York]."

Passengers felt safe, as well. Fischer described how the Ernest Shackleton had sailed in from the east, checking the passages ahead of Serenity's transit. His wife Peggy said, "When I looked out our veranda, I felt like the Shackleton was our guide dog because it's such a little ship and we were so big. It made me feel safe." She spoke of a day when kayaking got canceled because the conditions were not safe. "The crew watched out for us," she said.

Morris agreed. "We never felt nervous," she said. "Crystal was prepared for everything."

Only one stop was rendered impossible by ice, and that was in Greenland. Captain Vorland said he stopped the ship at the edge of the ice floes and ran a few Zodiac scenic cruises instead, but when the wind picked up, he had to call those back and cancel the rest of the outings. "No matter how exciting it gets, we have to keep safety in mind," he said.

Polar Bear along Northwest Passage
Lessons Learned

Crystal Serenity will sail the Northwest Passage again in summer 2017. According to Captain Vorland, "next year, the basics are exactly the same. We have a minor list of lessons learned" because the team was so well prepared for this year's cruise.

The Fischers applauded Crystal's packing list, and were "overwhelmed" by the many things Crystal provided, like binoculars, a warm parka and hat (that passengers can take home). They also mentioned the recommended reading list, and said that reading up on the area and being prepared really enhanced the voyage. Even with the packing list, Morris wished she had brought some warmer socks.

Both couples commended Crystal on all they did for passengers with mobility issues who did not or could not get off the ship. A video camera onboard the ship broadcast the images of the villages, the ice and the animal sightings on large-screen TVs in the Palm Court, as well as inside cabins, so onboard passengers could share in the off-ship experiences. The line also brought locals onboard to speak and to perform, so everyone could experience the communities of the Northwest Passage.

Now that Crystal Serenity has successfully -- and safely -- sailed the Northwest Passage, the remaining cabins on the 2017 voyage are likely to fill up quickly. For all those who are tempted, Morris says, "Make your reservations right away." Jeff Fischer says, "I would do it again in a heartbeat."
Thanks Mr. Henson. Taking the chance that this post will show up within a few hours, here's some tropics thoughts from me this evening...

-Julia is a non-issue. There's been some hope among mets in southern New England that some of her moisture may get funneled up the coast and provide a little relief to ongoing extreme drought in that area, but looking at satellite tonight and the conditions she's facing, there's really not much moisture to begin with.
-Karl looks less interesting from an impact standpoint than it has the past couple days. I still think it's very possible it degenerates in the next few days. If it survives and strengthens, however, it should already have enough latitude to have no issues escaping out to sea, probably near or east of Bermuda.
-Beyond Karl: Maybe a quick development near the CV islands in a couple days, but that looks like a non-issue as well. The MJO is unfavorable, as it has been most of the season, and that is going to keep dogging the Atlantic. This time of year we have to watch for development pretty much anywhere, any time, but nothing strikes my eyes right now.
18. Patrap

I have not seen you post the hydra in a long time, It was not banned was it? Seems like a good time for it with this main blog post.
Thanks for the blog and update on the tip of the melting icebergs.
Things are looking grim to say the least for Arctic ice in the coming years.
Meanwhile I note that the Antarctic ice is in rapid decline at the moment and probably going to be of interest soon if this trend continues.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_i mages/S_stddev_timeseries.png

Link

Apologies for not being able to get an image to add to the comment.
Hydrus, if you are about, can you stick this chart into the blog as it is probably slightly more than significant.
I cant make any sense out of my browser tonight.
I've probably been "Trumped," or something similar.
Thanks.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_i mages/S_stddev_timeseries.png

Link
Tropical Storm Karl's center is exposed with a naked swirl moving away from the convection, which is getting sheared off towards the northeast. I think it will dip towards the west-southwest for about 2 days caught in a more low level steering and rebuilding Azores Ridge to the north, now that Ian is gone, and trough has lifted up. That's my forecast.

With the high enthalpy of fusion for water (melting of ice) relative to the specific heat of liquid water, I shudder to think what should happen once the arctic sea ice is no more. I don't think people realize how fine a line it is from partial ice cover to open water at 10C, especially during the arctic summer. The amount of radiation at the North Pole on the summer solstice is greater than any spot on the globe.
Karl passing through the peak of unfavorable conditions right now. Will likely weaken a little bit tonight, but should begin to restrengthen by Sunday or Monday.
Quoting 20. SunnyDaysFla:

18. Patrap

I have not seen you post the hydra in a long time, It was not banned was it? Seems like a good time for it with this main blog post.


Deviantart is the site,and no,.....I feel we can see daily globally the increasing effects of a human induced warming.


The hydra is a good example of the unknown agw forcings feedback impacts.

The known is scary nuff,but the unknowns are even scarier in my perception downstream in time.




Interesting spread in the ensembles this run.


Here you go PlazaRed
Quoting 18. Patrap:



Crystal Cruise Ship Completes Historic Northwest Passage Arctic Journey
September 16, 2016


(2:30 p.m. EDT) -- Early this morning, Crystal Cruises' Crystal Serenity sailed into New York City to a spectacular sunrise welcome, completing its historic 32-day Northwest Passage journey. The ship became the largest passenger vessel to sail the icy Arctic waters of Canada.

The trip from Anchorage to New York, via the Canadian Arctic and Greenland, had been considered controversial by some, given that the route has traditionally been blocked with ice (a fear that has lessened due to global warming). Canada's version of the Coast Guard, along the U.S., held safety drills and ran through emergency scenarios, in case the 1,070-passenger ship would have to be evacuated.

Passengers and crew agree that the journey went off without a hitch. "The voyage was very successful, and there were no surprises," says Captain Birger J. Vorland. "There was actually less ice than we anticipated." He credited the three years of intense planning that went into the trip, and the expertise of the expedition team on the Ernest Shackleton, an ice-class vessel that accompanied the cruise ship.

"Crystal thought of everything and it couldn't have been better," agreed Nancy Morris, a seasoned world cruiser from Sarasota, Florida.

Inuit Dancers from Ulukhaktok
An Incredible Trip of Firsts

At Pier 88 in New York, travelers spoke of the air of excitement that permeated the entire cruise, from the first day to the last. Both passengers and crew felt they were part of something special, a voyage of firsts.

"I never felt the enthusiasm wane," said Vorland. "Everything clicked. I never experienced an atmosphere like this before in my 38 years at sea." Passengers checked everything off their Arctic wish lists: polar bears, ice, the Northern Lights.

The Zodiac outings were a particular highlight. Jeff Fischer from San Jose, California, said the ship ran Zodiac tours for seven hours the first day the ship encountered polar bears. With 1,000 passengers onboard and Zodiacs that carry 10, the ship made the effort to get everyone out to see the sights. "On one excursion, we were surrounded by humpback whales, spouting and blowing -- it was wonderful," he said. A Zodiac of crewmembers would pull up alongside to offer hot chocolate and coffee

Another highlight were the community visits -- and bringing villagers onboard. Morris enjoyed learning about the locals' way of life, how they got food, oil and clothing from hunted seals and only got one shipment of supplies per year. To prepare, Crystal outlined a code of conduct for passengers as to how to behave in the villages: no photos without asking, no buying of staples from the limited local supply. Crystal donated money and supplies to the local communities, and invited residents onboard. According to Morris, local children got to eat in the Lido buffet and sample the Ben and Jerry's ice cream bar -- their first-ever ice cream.

In addition, Crystal had geologists, biologists, naturalists and professional photographers onboard to give lectures, accompany tours and interact with passengers.

Arctic Ice in Victoria Strait
Safety First

Safety was clearly the first priority on this trip. "My number one job is to keep everyone safe," said Captain Vorland. He said the toughest challenge was actually uncertainty. He knew it was supposed to be a "good" ice year (i.e. little ice), but the concern remained until the ship was actually sailing the Northwest Passage and finding not much ice at all. Still, "we always had to keep our guard up," he said, "and I was very happy when we docked here at Pier 88 [in New York]."

Passengers felt safe, as well. Fischer described how the Ernest Shackleton had sailed in from the east, checking the passages ahead of Serenity's transit. His wife Peggy said, "When I looked out our veranda, I felt like the Shackleton was our guide dog because it's such a little ship and we were so big. It made me feel safe." She spoke of a day when kayaking got canceled because the conditions were not safe. "The crew watched out for us," she said.

Morris agreed. "We never felt nervous," she said. "Crystal was prepared for everything."

Only one stop was rendered impossible by ice, and that was in Greenland. Captain Vorland said he stopped the ship at the edge of the ice floes and ran a few Zodiac scenic cruises instead, but when the wind picked up, he had to call those back and cancel the rest of the outings. "No matter how exciting it gets, we have to keep safety in mind," he said.

Polar Bear along Northwest Passage
Lessons Learned

Crystal Serenity will sail the Northwest Passage again in summer 2017. According to Captain Vorland, "next year, the basics are exactly the same. We have a minor list of lessons learned" because the team was so well prepared for this year's cruise.

The Fischers applauded Crystal's packing list, and were "overwhelmed" by the many things Crystal provided, like binoculars, a warm parka and hat (that passengers can take home). They also mentioned the recommended reading list, and said that reading up on the area and being prepared really enhanced the voyage. Even with the packing list, Morris wished she had brought some warmer socks.

Both couples commended Crystal on all they did for passengers with mobility issues who did not or could not get off the ship. A video camera onboard the ship broadcast the images of the villages, the ice and the animal sightings on large-screen TVs in the Palm Court, as well as inside cabins, so onboard passengers could share in the off-ship experiences. The line also brought locals onboard to speak and to perform, so everyone could experience the communities of the Northwest Passage.

Now that Crystal Serenity has successfully -- and safely -- sailed the Northwest Passage, the remaining cabins on the 2017 voyage are likely to fill up quickly. For all those who are tempted, Morris says, "Make your reservations right away." Jeff Fischer says, "I would do it again in a heartbeat."





Not a first https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
Quoting 22. PlazaRed:

Hydrus, if you are about, can you stick this chart into the blog as it is probably slightly more than significant.
I cant make any sense out of my browser tonight.
I've probably been "Trumped," or something similar.
Thanks.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_i mages/S_stddev_timeseries.png

Link
Quoting 28. PedleyCA:


Here you go PlazaRed


Beat me to it! :)
Quoting 2. GainesvilleGator:

Here is a quote from the NHC 5:00 PM Discussion on Julia:
"In the next day or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west by the low-level ridge to the north."

The "5:00 PM" coordinates are 30.8N & 75.7 W. It is currently 30.5N & 76.00 West (5:30 PM EST). The NHC graphics shows a slight SW dip which Julia has now passed followed by NW path followed by dissipation. It looks to be moving faster than predicted. Unless Julia stalls right now it looks like a busted forecast.


it is painfully obvious that you do not understand how to properly interpret their graphic regarding where Julia could be at any point in time. Is she still within the white circle that is depicted? If the answer is yes, well then they did a great job of showing where the center could be located and got it "right".
Thanks for the worrisome new entry!

The arctic bites back ...

First pictures from Arctic island where five meteorologists were besieged by ravenous polar bears
Daily Mail, by Will Stewart In Moscow for MailOnline, Updated: 19:27 GMT, 16 September 2016

- Russian researchers were trapped on remote Troynoy island off Russia
- Ten adult polar bears and two cubs circled the Arctic weather base
- One of their dogs was killed by the animals and they had no more flares
- But a helicopter from a Russian ship was used to scare off the bears
- 'It was an alarming situation for them,' said scientist Viktor Nikiforov

A portal to another dimension? Strange cloud over Siberia
By The Siberian Times, 15 September 2016
Social media alive with comments over the funnel-like formation in the skies over the village of Gonda in Buryatia.


Karl is moving WSW
Quoting 33. barbamz:

Thanks for the worrisome new entry!

The arctic bites back ...

First pictures from Arctic island where five meteorologists were besieged by ravenous polar bears
Daily Mail, by Will Stewart In Moscow for MailOnline, Updated: 19:27 GMT, 16 September 2016

- Russian researchers were trapped on remote Troynoy island off Russia
- Ten adult polar bears and two cubs circled the Arctic weather base
- One of their dogs was killed by the animals and they had no more flares
- But a helicopter from a Russian ship was used to scare off the bears
- 'It was an alarming situation for them,' said scientist Viktor Nikiforov

A portal to another dimension? Strange cloud over Siberia
By The Siberian Times, 15 September 2016
Social media alive with comments over the funnel-like formation in the skies over the village of Gonda in Buryatia.




LOL - barb you have the links backwards the wrong link to the second headline. This is what it sends to: Crystal Cruise Ship Completes Historic Northwest Passage Arctic Journey :D
Quoting 34. JRRP7:


Karl is moving WSW
Already way south of the forecast point.
33. barbamz
11:37 PM GMT on September 16, 2016

A portal to another dimension? Strange cloud over Siberia
By The Siberian Times, 15 September 2016
Social media alive with comments over the funnel-like formation in the skies over the village of Gonda in Buryatia.

Maybe?

Cold Air Funnel/weather.gov
Quoting 35. daddyjames:

LOL - barb you have the links backwards :D

Oh, sorry, lol. I've fixed the links in my post. Thanks, daddy!
yes karl is moving wsw sw models will move more south west down the road.
Quoting 36. Gearsts:

Already way south of the forecast point.
That was expected. The HWRF model shows this well. Wouldn't be surprised if it got as far south as 16N before turning again. Take a look at the current steering.

Quoting 37. beell:

Cold Air Funnel/weather.gov

Ah, never heard of such a thing before, lol. Thanks, beell.
Although, it's rather warm in that (southern) part of Siberia right now:


Current anomalies. Edit: Might not contradict the idea of a cold air funnel if the air aloft was cold.
Quoting 38. barbamz:


Oh, sorry, lol. I've fixed the links in my post. Thanks, daddy!


I fixed my statement, and the link, in my post as well ;)
Something just doesn't seem right with these Atlantic storms the past few years.

I'm not suggesting a tin foil hat, but its just weird.
Quoting 43. cajunkid:

I'm suggesting a tin foil hat, but its just weird.


i think it's the exact opposite - the storms don't have tops on them, much less a tin-foil hat ;)
Quoting 44. daddyjames:



i think it's the exact opposite - the storms don't have tops on them, much less a tin-foil hat ;)


I meant to put "not suggesting" in there.
test
Thank you for the unfortunately not unexpected update Mr. Henson. All we need are a couple of really long cold winters to get back on track -right? Funny how the good old days don't seem as long ago as they used to.
Have a safe weekend everyone!




lots of moisture tonight. They just removed the flood warning from our area day before yesterday, It had been in effect for almost a month.
.
Blog again frozen? Umm, just the opposite of Arctic sea ice then ... ;-)

Is La Niña Here? Depends Who You Ask
Climate Central, Published: September 16th, 2016
After the demise of El Niño, the climate phenomenon that has helped fuel record-setting heat for the past two years, all eyes have stayed on the Pacific waiting for its counterpart, La Niña.
Without the cooling influence of a La Niña event, the planet is likely to continue feeling the heat for the rest of the year. July and August tied for the hottest month ever recorded and 2016 is essentially guaranteed to be the hottest year on record.
So now after a few months of waiting for the arrival of La Niña, where do we stand? Well, that depends on who you ask. ...


Good night over there from Germany (waiting for my rain!).
Quoting 43. cajunkid:

Something just doesn't seem right with these Atlantic storms the past few years.

I'm 'NOT' suggesting a tin foil hat, but its just weird.
maybe forgot the 'not' ?? Makes a skosh more sense that way :)
Ian Julia and Karl have all been very hard on the eyes.Bring back the beauty Gaston!
Quoting 41. barbamz:


Ah, never heard of such a thing before, lol. Thanks, beell.
Although, it's rather warm in that (southern) part of Siberia right now:


Current anomalies.


The cold air is or would be aloft.

The general location of the Republic of Buryatia is circled on the 500 mb chart below. Don't know where to quickly find a 500 mb temp chart for the 15th-assuming that was the date of the photos. May have been a day or two earlier.

Lower heights imply colder (denser) air. There was some evidence of this.




"Cold air funnels form beneath showers or weak thunderstorms when the air aloft is especially cold. The funnels are most common in the fall and spring when the sun is able to heat up the lower levels of the atmosphere, causing convection to bubble up and form showers, but temperatures around 15,000 to 20,000 feet above the ground are quite cold."


It could very well be a portal to another dimension-just a guess here.
:)
Quoting 29. coastbilliken15:






Not a first https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
And your point is ..... ?

BTW from reading the article, it appears that the many "firsts" referred to are first time experiences for the passengers - altho this is apparently the first time such a large ship has completed the voyage.
Degraded and Disheveled, The Blog grinds.. to.... a......... halt............again.
Quoting 44. daddyjames:



i think it's the exact opposite - the storms don't have tops on them, much less a tin-foil hat ;)


mid level dry air has been a problem for a very long time. A guillotine if you will, preventing the lower and upper levels from connecting.
AL, 11, 2016091618, , BEST, 0, 310N, 756W, 35, 1007, TS
AL, 11, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 303N, 762W, 30, 1008, TD

Seems as if the tin-foil has done more damage to the blog than to the Atlantic Hurricane season . . . (this is just a test).
Quoting 49. beell:

The cold air is or would be aloft.

True. Umm, I've already edit my post in this way earlier, but it didn't show up then due to the once again frozen blog. Ice age is coming! ;-)
But now I'm really out. Good night!
From 8PM NHC Discussion
The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 16/2100 UTC is near 30.8N
75.7W. Julia is moving south at 3 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate
convection extends east of the center from 29N-32N between 69W-
74W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC for
more details.

Julia roto-rootering the coast
Convection still lagging behind
per beell: It could very well be a portal to another dimension-just a guess here.:)

(grabs tinfoil scarf as well)
Oh, the irony. The blog freezes while the Arctic melts.
Quoting 62. barbamz:


True. Umm, I've already edit my post in this way earlier, but it didn't show up then due to the once again frozen blog. Ice age is coming! ;-)
But now I'm really out. Good night!
not till after the hot age first
Quoting 53. beell:



The cold air is or would be aloft.

The general location of the Republic of Buryatia is circled on the 500 mb chart below. Don't know where to quickly find a 500 mb temp chart for the 15th-assuming that was the date of the photos. May have been a day or two earlier.

Lower heights imply colder (denser) air. There was some evidence of this.




"Cold air funnels form beneath showers or weak thunderstorms when the air aloft is especially cold. The funnels are most common in the fall and spring when the sun is able to heat up the lower levels of the atmosphere, causing convection to bubble up and form showers, but temperatures around 15,000 to 20,000 feet above the ground are quite cold."


It could very well be a portal to another dimension-just a guess here.
:)

we get over the lakes here as well mainly in the fall cold air above warm moist thermal lake air below should be some nice ones this year lakes are way above average
dry air punching Karl in the gut
I read on another site that the 18Z PLANFALF model shows Karl not recurving at all and instead headed straight towards south Florida as a major hurricane in about a week on a WNW track? Is this true, does anyone have a link to this model?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wind s/wg8vor.GIF
The anticyclone in front of Karl plus low shear should give things a boost.
What the heck...we're outta milk. Later.
There is a noticeable lack of sun spots, I recommend researching on the upcoming Mini Ice Age which will last around 10 years
Yes, Karl missed its next forecast point to the south but it's not a significant move, maybe if it managed to dip to 15-16N by 40-44w then it would be significant.

I see from the time stamp that the blog has likely froze again. Still with Karl moving more south than anticipated earlier. As in the old saying two planes leave LA one to Miami and one to Boston at first the difference is small then WOW.
With the blog on the blip, wondering if it will ever get renamed...?
Quoting 61. GeoffreyWPB:






Does this mean Julia will eventually pose a threat to Texas?
Quoting 61. GeoffreyWPB:







Will this storm, Julia, eventually be a threat to Texas?
Quoting 24. ClimateChange:

With the high enthalpy of fusion for water (melting of ice) relative to the specific heat of liquid water, I shudder to think what should happen once the arctic sea ice is no more. I don't think people realize how fine a line it is from partial ice cover to open water at 10C, especially during the arctic summer. The amount of radiation at the North Pole on the summer solstice is greater than any spot on the globe.

It's been a while since I last saw of a graph of insolation at given latitudes vs. day of year. For how many days each year is insolation greatest at the North Pole?
Quoting 61. GeoffreyWPB:





What these pictures tell me is that the models are a confused hunk of junk.
Blog hole?
The blog ate my post again :(
Lol...so it took me a few minutes to figure out why I couldn't comment on anyone's post. Got the new iPhone and all my passwords were gone I suppose. I just really wanted to quote one thing tonight saying "that's what she said"... don't but the new crown vanilla boys and girls
Julia has a chance to develop once in the gulf most models eventually tak it back over florida into the gulf
Maybe no one will see this, so here I go. What in the actual f is going on with this blog? I mean really, if they want to end something just end it. This has been like a several month break up and maybe it's time we best move on? Annoying af. The one night I have time to catch up and enjoy the blog, it is down, again.
Quoting 36. Gearsts:

Already way south of the forecast point.

it's almost back down to 18 n
Blog Bog again?
Quoting 12. Neapolitan:

I've been in Alaska the past few weeks--just got home yesterday--and spent quite a bit of time listening to locals talk about the rapid changes in their world: melting permafrost, disappearing glaciers, migrating species, and, of course, the incredible decrease in sea ice. I was able to stand on several glaciers and directly compare their current state with old photos and see just how drastically things have changed; I was able to hear old-timers speak wistfully of far better hunting and fishing in the past; I saw firsthand just how many thousands of square miles of taiga have been contorted into "drunken forests" due to the thawing permafrost. It's very sad, and very sobering. Of course, Alaska being a politically "red" state, many of the comments about what was happening were couched in mystery and magic ("I'm not sure what'a going on, but something surely is"), but at last, having confronted head-on the reality of the situation, not even the most hardcore denialist can any longer pretend that nothing is happening.

"what's 'a goin' on" is the inability, the militant refusal, of the multitudes who insist in clinging to an authoritarian view of the world to accept the fact that no one, on this planet or elsewhere, is in charge and has things "under control". How much more damage will be done by those with this mindset in a effort to pretend that we should all just move along, that there is nothing to see here? What will be the fallout when the lovers of authority finally realize that they have let themselves be lied to by the representatives of the firm that built Stonehenge?
Quoting 71. DakZekeDez:

I read on another site that the 18Z PLANFALF model shows Karl not recurving at all and instead headed straight towards south Florida as a major hurricane in about a week on a WNW track? Is this true, does anyone have a link to this model?
Is still weeks away from the US.
KRAL Riverside Municipal Airport

Gonna be toasty on Sunday.
Serious case of "Blog Bog" again.
Guess it's a good thing the blog chapped out. My crown posts will now remain a mystery
Quoting 70. Grothar:




Whew! For a minute there, I thought Julia was going to be a GOMEX storm.
Quoting 75. Icybubba:

There is a noticeable lack of sun spots, I recommend researching on the upcoming Mini Ice Age which will last around 10 years

Sorry, I won't be able to begin researching this topic just yet. I'm fresh outta tin foil.
Quoting 84. washingtonian115:

Blog hole?


Blog Crater
Quoting 88. SecretStormNerd:

Maybe no one will see this, so here I go. What in the actual f is going on with this blog? I mean really, if they want to end something just end it. This has been like a several month break up and maybe it's time we best move on? Annoying af. The one night I have time to catch up and enjoy the blog, it is down, again.

IBM+ It's Been Messy
Quoting 89. TheDeathStar:


it's almost back down to 18 n


Dancing coc
I know on other websites that I have been to I always noticed when they tried to get rid of something that particular thing would start having multiple "problems".I see where you're going with this WU and its not good.
Quoting 88. SecretStormNerd:

Maybe no one will see this, so here I go. What in the actual f is going on with this blog? I mean really, if they want to end something just end it. This has been like a several month break up and maybe it's time we best move on? Annoying af. The one night I have time to catch up and enjoy the blog, it is down, again.


Hackers IMO, problems arise after TWC merge.
The Atlantic looks an awful lot like a dog's breakfast right now but don't worry, peeps. A little birdie told me that Matthew is going to come and clean up this messy business.
Quoting 88. SecretStormNerd:

Maybe no one will see this, so here I go. What in the actual f is going on with this blog? I mean really, if they want to end something just end it. This has been like a several month break up and maybe it's time we best move on? Annoying af. The one night I have time to catch up and enjoy the blog, it is down, again.


Go easy on them, they are having technical difficulties again. Something to do with their disks:

This will sound childish (which I am somewhat lol) but if they did take down the comment section of the blog I wouldn't read the actual blog. 60% of the fun is reading what others like me think. So in a case like Julia if in my head I am like ohhh what is this... uhhhh? And I see numerous others saying that, then I feel on track.
Quoting 92. Gearsts:

Is still weeks away from the US.

TWC said they dont know about ridge but have an arrow pointing straight towards S.Florida OR OTS..depends. and its not weeks away..more like 10-12 days. :)
Quoting 97. ACSeattle:


Sorry, I won't be able to begin researching this topic just yet. I'm fresh outta tin foil.

Well for one thing the farmers almanac says this upcoming winter will be colder than the previous ones, decrease in sun spots, increase in volcanic activity, the ice in the artic and Antarctic is proven to be growing, plus cosmic rays, also more climate scientists are saying, yes the earth is cooling
Model-moe's old dog endears leeches= crazy
Julia has been driving the models crazy over the past few days!
This is a very good documentary done by the National Geographic, which interviewed some very smart scientists and professors from around the world showing the projections of sea level rise and the sea defenses being built and concepts being proposed by engineers and architects to protect against salt water inundation. Some of the projections are scary and would displace 10s of millions of people around the world. It would be a refugee crisis and nothing like we are seeing now.

Climate Change | Its Effect on Earth After 20 Years | Interesting Documentary Films

The monster is lurking in the north east corner!
111. 7544
hello is julia moving at all
Night all. Plant a formidable storm at 60W, I'll watch, anything else is just that.
Quoting 107. Icybubba:


Well for one thing the farmers almanac says this upcoming winter will be colder than the previous ones, decrease in sun spots, increase in volcanic activity, the ice in the artic and Antarctic is proven to be growing, plus cosmic rays, also more climate scientists are saying, yes the earth is cooling


should start cooling any day now


115. 92L
Quoting 92. Gearsts:

Is still weeks away from the US.
Long-time lurker. I remember the Planfalf noise...there was a guy who featured it with its associated "McTavish Numbers". Every storm was destined to strike Wilmington. Funny stuff. I think he got booted, or lost interest.
julia's cabin fever should send Kyle OTS.
Orlene is a remnant low. Karl should weaken and then become a hurricane. Julia is a depression. It is still 30 50.
Quoting 76. Grothar:


too far north
Quoting 107. Icybubba:


Well for one thing the farmers almanac says this upcoming winter will be colder than the previous ones, decrease in sun spots, increase in volcanic activity, the ice in the artic and Antarctic is proven to be growing, plus cosmic rays, also more climate scientists are saying, yes the earth is cooling
Bite your tongue!
Once Karl ends up becoming a hurricane a few days out, it should nicely add some ACE that we are somewhat below average in at this point in the season. I could see Karl easily becoming a Cat. 4 more than 5 days out. Pay close attention to this one as it has a decent chance of making it to somewhere in the US.

I also predict Julia has a 25% chance of surviving the 25+ knots of wind shear that's currently affecting it and restrengthening later on. Right now it looks like nothing but an open swirl, but that doesn't mean that the remnant circulation can't survive the wind shear once it subsides. The weak steering currents also mean that we don't know where this might end up going, but that's if it survives the shear.
Quoting 121. Oxfordvalley:

Once Karl ends up becoming a hurricane a few days out, it should nicely add some ACE that we are somewhat below average in at this point in the season. I could see Karl easily becoming a Cat. 4 more than 5 days out. Pay close attention to this one as it has a decent chance of making it to somewhere in the US.

I also predict Julia has a 25% chance of surviving the 25+ knots of wind shear that's currently affecting it and restrengthening later on. Right now it looks like nothing but an open swirl, but that doesn't mean that the remnant circulation can't survive the wind shear once it subsides. The weak steering currents also mean that we don't know where this might end up going, but that's if it survives the shear.



Julia is the wild card, kyle is OTS,imo
karl may come west towards fl. down the road. per twc.
Hi, all. Just wanted you to know that we greatly appreciate your patience while we work on the recurrent issues with delays in posting comments. WU stands behind the blog, and Jeff and I greatly value and appreciate the commenting feature as an integral element of it. We hope to get things resolved sooner rather than later. Many thanks for bearing with us!

BTW, the blog renaming is on hold to minimize confusion among those readers who pop in during the peak of hurricane season.

Thanks again for your support, loyalty, and participation. It means a lot to me and Jeff.
Quoting 118. TheDeathStar:

too far north


How far south do you want it? Trust me, they will move. We might even see convection wrapping around tonight, even though the NHC says 2 or 3 days
One thing I've read before on arctic sea ice extents is that Antarctic sea ice can go up to compensate; in 2012 Arctic sea ice reached a record low, but Antarctic sea ice reached a record high that year, so when one goes up, another goes down, and vise versa. This doesn't mean sea level rise won't be a problem, but it would take a while; if both the Arctic and the Antarctic sea ice packs melted by a certain amount, the global sea levels would go up by over 200 meters, more than enough to cause a climate refugee crisis.
Quoting 121. Oxfordvalley:

Once Karl ends up becoming a hurricane a few days out, it should nicely add some ACE that we are somewhat below average in at this point in the season. I could see Karl easily becoming a Cat. 4 more than 5 days out. Pay close attention to this one as it has a decent chance of making it to somewhere in the US.

I think Karl will probably turn north before hitting the eastern seaboard of the U.S, but I did mention in a post of mine in Jeff Masters' last blog post that an earlier run of the Euro takes Karl to Bermuda as a cat 4, which would be much worse than Fabian, let alone Gonzalo, if that pans out.
Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



should start cooling any day now




Wow that was amazing! Watching the implement take down that stand of pines was cool but it broke my heart. We need to develop a tree planter that is just as efficient. Hubby and I had a hobby farm and one year we planted 15 trees. Just like mollusks filter water, trees make O2, create shade on house (less a/c) and they're beautiful. Lost a few in a tornado, cherry, lovely blue spruce, and black walnut. Ice storms wreaked havoc on the cedar trees.
at last

be hold


AL, 96, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 117N, 173W, 20, 1009, DB


no model runs yet for 96L
Yeah I agree I wouldn't read this blog either if the comment section wasn't here
Quoting 105. George1938:

This will sound childish (which I am somewhat lol) but if they did take down the comment section of the blog I wouldn't read the actual blog. 60% of the fun is reading what others like me think. So in a case like Julia if in my head I am like ohhh what is this... uhhhh? And I see numerous others saying that, then I feel on track.
Based on the current model and ensemble guidance and their respective trends, I would look for a possible pattern change in the trough/ridge orientation over the United States beginning in about 10 days from now. There are indications that the persistent subtropical ridge over the East may begin to break down, being forced either to the west or to the east by a developing longwave trough. This is the kind of pattern you'd look for if you want to see the Caribbean light up (something we haven't seen a lot of this season) in some fashion.
Quoting 116. ProgressivePulse:

julia's cabin fever should send Kyle OTS.


Are we back in 2002, with a Kyle aimlessly roaming the Atlantic? :P
Quoting 131. thetwilightzone:




Same story.
Quoting 134. CaribBoy:



Same story.


I told you a long time ago to stop paying attention to eastern Atlantic trash, didn't I? When do I get an apology? :P
Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



should start cooling any day now






:(



And awww Mr Henson, thanks for trying to set the blog commenters' nerves at ease :)
Arctic ice and temps are so warm the permafrost is melting... Kinda of a bad word for it, since it isn't permanent anymore.

The only positive in this, which I also see as a negative, is that the northwest shipping routes and cruise ship routes through the arctic will expand. It's a positive because its an economic driver - cheaper shipping and more cruise ship routes. Nome just got its first cruise ship this year. Negative, because we (as in humans) could destroy a previously pristine and largely untouched by man area.
Quoting 135. KoritheMan:



I told you a long time ago to stop paying attention to eastern Atlantic trash, didn't I? When do I get an apology? :P


It would be nice to get a (rapidly) developing storm near 12N 50W... but fish trash is what I'm (we're) consistently getting this september :( I must be stubborn but I still have hopes with Karl though...
Quoting 138. CaribBoy:



It would be nice to get a (rapidly) developing storm near 12N 50W... but fish trash is what I'm (we're) consistently getting this september :( I must be stubborn but I still have hopes with Karl though...


Post 132 should make you happy. Or maybe not. It IS you.
Meanwhile Karl continues its gradual descent.
Hmmmm, let us go back in history....

"By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM EDT on July 02, 2012
It's true. After 17 years as an independent company, Weather Underground has been sold, and will now be part of The Weather Channel Companies (TWCC.) As one of the founders of Weather Underground, I am excited about embarking upon this new chapter in our company's history. Having the infrastructure, resources, and content of The Weather Channel Companies will enable wunderground to create some great new products, and improve the quality and reliability of our existing content. We will now be called Weather Underground, LLC, and will maintain the wunderground.com web site as it is."

Hate to break it to those of you that still believe in the Easter Bunny, but weather websites are/were a huge business. The romantic notion of a bunch of weather geeks creating a website for other geeks largely dissipated in 2009. Wunderground started to hugely expand their staff and focus on business. My guess was to make themselves look "pretty" to perspective buyers. It worked. Dr. Masters cashed out in 2012. Hopefully, Dr. Masters made the many millions I assume he did. He built something and decided to monetize it. Good for him. (Curiously, you have a better chance of finding Bigfoot than the terms of that sale.)

I just find it a little, perhaps, disingenuous to tell the Wunderground community it was good for them. The reality is The Weather Channel proceeded to ramp up their content holdings so they could eventually sell (look pretty) to an even bigger dog...IBM. This was another chapter in the wall street merger and acquisition playbook. IBM in turn has done what they often do with acquisitions...overpay for the asset, not understand what they are buying, and then screw up what they bought. God bless capitalism.

Meanwhile, Dr. Masters seems to have decided to enjoy life a little. Writing the blog, updating every three days or less, is not easy. Thus the addition of Mr. Henson, another addition that supposedly was "great" for all of us. My view is his addition has just taken the blog into non-tropical, non-current weather debate...and run off many with the vitriol that came with comments.

The reality is this blog is now about the contributing commentors and the moderators. No one else cares. Those that did have taken their money and walked. Those that should don't even know anything is wrong. I guess every has largely taken their marbles and gone home.
Quoting 139. KoritheMan:



Post 132 should make you happy. Or maybe not. It IS you.


I should stop dreaming :) but we never know :

Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



should start cooling any day now




Wow, amazing video.


Below TS strength. And down to 16N ...
Quoting 126. Ryan1000:

One thing I've read before on arctic sea ice extents is that Antarctic sea ice can go up to compensate; in 2012 Arctic sea ice reached a record low, but Antarctic sea ice reached a record high that year, so when one goes up, another goes down, and vise versa. This doesn't mean sea level rise won't be a problem, but it would take a while; if both the Arctic and the Antarctic sea ice packs melted by a certain amount, the global sea levels would go up by over 200 meters, more than enough to cause a climate refugee crisis.


Sea ice doesn't affect sea level rise. It's already in the water. It's the ice on land that raises the sea level. The big thing that the arctic melting does is change the climate by altering the jet stream and ocean currents.
Quoting 87. James1981cane:

Julia has a chance to develop once in the gulf most models eventually tak it back over florida into the gulf


Toward Texas?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Julia, located a couple hundred miles
southeast of the coast of South Carolina, and on Tropical Storm
Karl, located almost a thousand miles west-northwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
accompanied by disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while this system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system could bring rain and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Surely the blog is just broken.. or did everyone seriously overlook Avila's discussion of Julia???

..JULIA IS GOING NOWHERE FOR NOW AND PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN IN SITU...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deja vu all over again. Julia lost all its deep convection tonight
and now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds. Assuming
that the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of
convection develops near the center despite the strong westerly
shear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by
strong upper-level westerlies.

Given that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days
or so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the
shear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the
cyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is
expected to be a remnant low.

There has been no significant motion during the past day or so,
and basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in
very light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to
change, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling
around for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170249
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deja vu all over again. Julia lost all its deep convection tonight
and now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds. Assuming
that the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of
convection develops near the center despite the strong westerly
shear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by
strong upper-level westerlies.

Given that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days
or so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the
shear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the
cyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is
expected to be a remnant low.

There has been no significant motion during the past day or so,
and basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in
very light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to
change, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling
around for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Is there anything to what Avila says? If Julia dissipates, will it be a threat to anyone when all's said and done?
154. LBAR
Shocking news: ice melts in Summer!!! #doom or something.
Quoting 74. beell:

What the heck...we're outta milk. Later.


Taz will drop a cow on you for some milk for free
Quoting 150. thetwilightzone:

96L




One more coming in a few days
Quoting 137. Dakster:

Arctic ice and temps are so warm the permafrost is melting... Kinda of a bad word for it, since it isn't permanent anymore.

The only positive in this, which I also see as a negative, is that the northwest shipping routes and cruise ship routes through the arctic will expand. It's a positive because its an economic driver - cheaper shipping and more cruise ship routes. Nome just got its first cruise ship this year. Negative, because we (as in humans) could destroy a previously pristine and largely untouched by man area.



No one seems to mention that with all the permafrost that is gone extreme amounts of methane are being released. A Pandora's box has opened and the bottom line is that the vast majority of media sources (even "independent" sources), are only telling half-truths at best. If the planetary warming continues unabated, and thawing methane deposits continue to fill our atmosphere, our fate will be sealed very soon.
Quoting 156. Grothar:



One more coming in a few days


cool
Quoting 126. Ryan1000:

One thing I've read before on arctic sea ice extents is that Antarctic sea ice can go up to compensate; in 2012 Arctic sea ice reached a record low, but Antarctic sea ice reached a record high that year, so when one goes up, another goes down, and vise versa.

That's not what the science or data says.
Quoting 154. LBAR:

Shocking news: ice melts in Summer!!! #doom or something.
it sure does faster and faster
Quoting 154. LBAR:

Shocking news: ice melts in Summer!!! #doom or something.

No, the annual melt isn't shocking to anyone. What's shocking is the downward trend of the volume of ice in the Arctic:


The amount of old ice has decreased sharply, too:



NOTE: Neither of the above graphs cover 2016, which as noted in the OP has seen another steep melt-out in the Arctic

NOTE 2: The Antarctic has seen a steep melt-out in recent days, too.
Quoting 157. frank727:



No one seems to mention that with all the permafrost that is gone extreme amounts of methane are being released. A Pandora's box has opened and the bottom line is that the vast majority of media sources (even "independent" sources), are only telling half-truths at best. If the planetary warming continues unabated, and thawing methane deposits continue to fill our atmosphere, our fate will be sealed very soon.

our fate is already sealed
the process has begun with the methane release
and that will take us to a sudden spike of global temp rise
somewhere around the 11 to 14 c range over the next 10 to 15 years
the last time that happen 90 percent of all life was wiped out
add 10 to 15 years to 2016 and well that's 2026 too 2031
its not gonna be pretty by then I assure you
Finished the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney pressure-wind relationship analysis of Typhoon Meranti using JTWC wind estimates and environmental readings from the 0.25 degree resolution FNL model.

Here is a comparison of multiple agencies including the estimates from the FNL model

The lowest unsmoothened result from the C-K method was 882 mbars on September 13, 12:00 UTC. However when applying a spline interpolation to the raw data yielded a reading of 887 mbars, very similar to the JMA analysis. The lowest the FNL went was 883 mbars on September 13, 18:00 UTC.

I think the readings are a bit lower than reality since the winds were likely over estimated when compared to the Dvorak values given during the typhoon's peak intensity.
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


our fate is already sealed
the process has begun with the methane release
and that will take us to a sudden spike of global temp rise
somewhere around the 11 to 14 c range over the next 10 to 15 years
the last time that happen 90 percent of all life was wiped out
add 10 to 15 years to 2016 and well that's 2026 too 2031
its not gonna be pretty by then I assure you

On what science are you basing that, Keep? That seems waaaay outside any projection that I've seen from any reputable source.
I retire in 2030
by then maybe they will have a cruise ship booking
sailing the lagoons of Antarctica

Quoting 164. Misanthroptimist:


On what science are you basing that, Keep? That seems waaaay outside any projection that I've seen from any reputable source.

from my own calculations and stuff from previous events
recorded in core samples I have read about
Quoting 164. Misanthroptimist:


On what science are you basing that, Keep? That seems waaaay outside any projection that I've seen from any reputable source.
the whole climate thing has been underestimated and scientists have already begun sounding the alarm on this fact its all happening much faster than they even thought possible and will continue to be the case
I really do hope I am wrong please let me be wrong
AL, 12, 2016091706, , BEST, 0, 183N, 376W, 40, 1004, TS
AL, 11, 2016091706, , BEST, 0, 301N, 764W, 25, 1009, TD


i could be wrong but it looks like the NHC is this about ready too pull the plug on JULIA next updated it has it looks like the storm has this about .DISSIPATED 96hrs a head of time
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


from my own calculations and stuff from previous events
recorded in core samples I have read about

Obviously, I can't argue with it without numbers, except to again say that that is far outside current projections. Where do you think the current projections are coming up short?

And, in the interest of fairness, I also have an opinion that deviates from projections. I think that society as we know it is going to collapse around 2035-2040, +10/-18.
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


our fate is already sealed
the process has begun with the methane release
and that will take us to a sudden spike of global temp rise
somewhere around the 11 to 14 c range over the next 10 to 15 years
the last time that happen 90 percent of all life was wiped out
add 10 to 15 years to 2016 and well that's 2026 too 2031
its not gonna be pretty by then I assure you


Send lawyers guns and money cause the $hit has hit the fan. Seriously though, you're closer to right than anyone wants to believe. Our atmosphere is a bathtub and it's filling up with greenhouse gasses. Current energy resources can be tweaked to hell and back, but at the end of the day were just turning the faucet down a bit. Turning a faucet down with an over full bath tub still has the same result. It overfills.
Quoting 28. PedleyCA:


Here you go PlazaRed

Thanks for putting up the chart of Antarctic ice melt Ped, its probably well on its way down now and very early.
The recent speed of melting is probably going to be significant in this southern Hemispheres summer ice melt and according to the chart things could be very interesting if this trend continues, although its very early days yet and in fact we are not even at the equinox until next week.
Quoting 133. KoritheMan:



Are we back in 2002, with a Kyle aimlessly roaming the Atlantic? :P
Kyle, god of the ocean swell, is worshiped by East Coast surfer cults.
Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Methane release by itself doesn't bother me all that much. It's what we'll do in response to a sudden methane release that gives me the heebie-jeebies. We can probably counteract any mass methane release by flooding the atmosphere with aerosols, cutting down the amount of sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface. Of course, that might have a wee effect on farming. When people don't get enough to eat, they get cranky. When nations don't get enough to eat, they go to war. When nations with nuclear weapons get locked in a life or death struggle...

IMV, it always comes back to food and/or water.
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


our fate is already sealed
the process has begun with the methane release
and that will take us to a sudden spike of global temp rise
somewhere around the 11 to 14 c range over the next 10 to 15 years
the last time that happen 90 percent of all life was wiped out
add 10 to 15 years to 2016 and well that's 2026 too 2031
its not gonna be pretty by then I assure you


I think that you, as a moderator here, have some responsibility to not to spout off that extremist doomer stuff. Or if you must, then at the very least support it with something more than 'calculations I made and core sample I read about'.. preferably from sources other than doomer websites. I'm pretty sure that you don't know the future. I really hope I'm not too far out of line here, but seriously what exactly are you basing 11-15C increase in 10-15 years on?
178. vis0

Quoting 43. cajunkid:
Something just doesn't seem right with these Atlantic storms the past few years.

I'm 'NOT' suggesting a tin foil hat, but its just weird.
(typed at 1"34AM its almost 4AM, 8th try in posting...(took a shower to cool off between 5th -6th try) If things are becoming serious it is not my fault posting was delayed by 2+hrs...good news was remembered to upload the attached img just before try #8)

[not a direct reply to cajunkid)
Part known science part unknown science

Known:: (excerpt of yesteryears from my private blog)
One changes the temperature on a Lab experiments one changes results and how those results come to be.

Universe is the Lab, experiments are being tried in planet(s) (Galaxies) and whatever is within that planet...

 

 

...(lets leave out Galaxies, reference that after humans get act together as to Earth first, maybe on Grothar's 78th quadrillion comment...

yeah yeah  Taz   TWI,  by then Rumpelstiltskin image host  (or The BroGrimm) sez (AND i QUOTE) din that bid there )...

 

...has to react.  If this "reaction" happens slow enough, mutations (mental and physical) via gawd & nature will do its best to use changes for a positive as to each individual living thing (you though rewiring WxU was a complex thing, pffft! - NATURE).

On the other hand if the changes are done too fast - BOOM!,  lab explodes and if one see that explosion in super slo-mo one sees how things where changing way to fast just before explosion.  Since the planet has many realese points (some being chemical step up / down reactions we see no explosion instead we see weird reactions, weather acting "weird" think of it as using a pressure cooker to heat ones Fruit Loops, final result not what ones use to, hey? ...copastedict/Copasetic* maaaan    AS JUST ONE example GAS, methane in that as it rises it changes how droplets behave(s) which can be observed via  magnetic resonance (CLUE to taking unwanted gases out of atmosphere mag resonate gas with other elements at very low Hz sounds changes certain gases into a powered form then mail to the nearest planet that can use that (reactivated  as a gas) element to turn that planet into the next eden/eve/earth for atum/adam/atoms to thrive on...just remember that 13 rib is removed not to serve man but as the (~free) 13th electron removed to recreate a living thing.)  

 

Now on the other hand...
 

(already mutated have 3rd hand...not necessarily a bad thing...HEY stop those thoughts dirty filthy thoughts...oh wait i'm on the same page.."proseed"...see what i did there...i cleaned it up)

 
...if humans don't clean things up as in "slow down" greenhouse affects NOW, after all where humans going, as what's the rush?
 

(read the following in a Don Pardo game show voice)

 

nature/gawd has bought forth this luvly  8   no  9 ! no 8.5?  planet solar system with full AC and state of the art heater (Sun/slow Star burning model...energystar rating of 67 huh?...savings mat vary)    Self correcting moon affects thrown in at no extra cost (well expect  from where it broke/came off of/at) and made of CHEESE! and that's not all (buy ASTRONOMY magazine for the rest)

 

Now how much would you pay for such a prize? *(end of Mr Pardo voice)

EST RETAIL PRiCE::  Dos pesos (DARN! quick conversion aGW devaluations)

 

...at present a few are paying with their or others grandchildren's lives...too soon?  

 

So slow down, enjoy your present physical body, take in all the "wunders" there are.  Not just 8 wonders (of the world) but quadrillions, learn from nature and one day humans might be able to create such a grand prize as planet Earth v3.0 to make up for humans old damaging actions and the new planet as a gift for future beings of this galaxy. (yes politicians it can be a tax write-off)

 


Back to ATL (includes GoMx)

Now since the ATL is smaller than PAC i.e. land masses and their solids are closer to TS actions we see clouds reacting differently to that new atmos v2.0/land.  

 

UNKNOWN:: (some, yanked from the cob-webbed filled area of my pia matter protected thoughts...adjacent to MAD magazine / dirty mag memories)

 

Unknowns as my imagined weather influencing device, remember boys 'n girls the recent ":2WkAnom" is ending in a few days majeekal device  powering up so lets observe the next 2 months WxTrend "holds or releases" and how every 45 degrees of a complex planets reacts to that change n its own manner of "local topography" course in accordance to the laws of physics as if the planet was a large dilithium crystal interacting with the other crystal formations that generate wave flows and is one saved my formula (1 of 5 i stated will one day be important as e=mcHammer spongebob sq'd pants) as to how closer crystals are to each other how they use the pass-thru energy and pass-on more than cam in....like when one eats beans n cold chili n onions and swear they only breathed in 5 cu. feet of air yet 20 cu feet of air came out. Not just gawd "but" chemical reactions work in mysterious ways ah i see washi115 is buying 40 bags of cotton balls, puffing them up to go in hallow's eve as "Julia DryFUSS" the TS that kept battling dry air and fussing as to having no where to go ON A FRIDAY NITE NEAR FLORIDA

 
 

CREDIT:: Drawing of Rumpelstiltskin - (again content yanked from site w/o visiting it so be aware if you go there.  Hey i got infected by the rhyming bug that  (forgot member name???)   had a few days ago or so ....WOW! http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/poohadventures /images/3/3b/Rumpelstiltskin-voice-by-Walt-Dohrn-1 3-960x1987.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20131024064020

 

**From the Hebrew phrase chill out alls wellish - Moses on explaining how the Red sea being divided was not causing drowning as it meant he took his people onto the chaotic sea of thoughts as to an untrained complex (human) brain. As in using more often the  "sweet side" of the brain (right Hem) via the golden thoughts aka chariot therefore when he thought deeply with wisdom he parted the salty sea of thoughts from the sweet sea of thoughts and in thinking in a balanced manner weighted a bit more towards the "spiritual" side as opposed to carnal side he managed  that crossing that road of chaos arriving on to the other side where a chicken was waiting and said What took you so long, Moses replied Humanity. (read original scriptures you'll notice the "red sea" had a sweet side and the literal red sea ain't sweet)

 

No copy n paste here all original garbage

 
Good luck to both "IANTs" this weekend ...huh... gIANTs and sIANTs  play HARD end with all you had left on the field BUT BE  FAIR so at the end no questions are left in ones mind as to right or wrong. HUTT!!! HUTT!!!  Oooo! piztha hut.

 

THAT THING OFF TEXAS i'm worried as we entering a sudden change STAY ALERT FOR changes as much as 2 time more than expected hope-fully it might be to head out to GoMx then piddles into need rains for SE dry areas
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


our fate is already sealed
the process has begun with the methane release
and that will take us to a sudden spike of global temp rise
somewhere around the 11 to 14 c range over the next 10 to 15 years
the last time that happen 90 percent of all life was wiped out
add 10 to 15 years to 2016 and well that's 2026 too 2031
its not gonna be pretty by then I assure you


No, such a scenario is absolutely impossible. There is no mechanism that could cause a global temperature increase of 10°C within a decade.

Quoting 177. Mediarologist:



I think that you, as a moderator here, have some responsibility to not to spout off that extremist doomer stuff. Or if you must, then at the very least support it with something more than 'calculations I made and core sample I read about'.. preferably from sources other than doomer websites. I'm pretty sure that you don't know the future. I really hope I'm not too far out of line here, but seriously what exactly are you basing 11-15C increase in 10-15 years on?
its been a long and hot summer. thankfully its starting to cool off. our gulf of mex 92 ex just does not want to poof ir easy to tell where its trying the hardest
Quoting 181. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



What is that? What does that mean? That's not an answer. I mean, for the record I am totally on board with the reality of anthropogenic climate change, and that there is no guarantee the human race is going to pull its head out of its behind in time to survive. But spouting off the equivalent of 'were all going to be dead in 15 years' hurts the credibility of this site. It's counter productive to raising awareness of the actual truth.

I'd like to see Drs. Masters or Henson chime in here, and let, say, someone who is new to this forum know that this isn't some crackpot doomer website, that it's actually about science. As a student of atmospheric science it really gets me going to see that stuff baldly asserted as if it God's given truth. So once again, I ask you for your sources Keep.
184. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
AOI:: Northern GoMx (apology on speed hope film sprockets don't rip/tear)
D&T:: (believe it or not) 201609-17;0345utc till 201609-17;0715utc
NOTE1:: Grothar keep a eyesss out for Julia.& whatever the thing is by the time this message gets posted is and Karl...BTW i don't think of Karl Malone when i think of a TS i think of Karl the butcher (thick arms husky dressed  in white)  on 40th street. in hells kitchen area of Manhattan (this was 1970s)
NOTE2:: This might not form but its the fastest / best symmetrical spin i've seen in years near the USofA


image host
185. vis0
Quoting 154. LBAR:

Shocking news: ice melts in Summer!!! #doom or something.
you forgot one thing, POLAR REGION, look up the polar region and its neighboring area.

See this means if -GOODNESS FORBID- in looking through your kitchen's window from their kitchen one neighbor sez there's a fire, other neighbor also sees a flame in the kitchen but sez there's a stove in there, no big deal its called a kitchen.  Yet in taking a more complete look would notice the fridge is also burning.  Are refrigerators normally on fire (not cooling) during your summers, if so you'd fix it would you not?  How do we fix this damaged "fridge" of Earth?

Have you noticed that Earth has gone through numerous summers (N Hem/S Hem) and there where tremendous masses of ice as in your history / science books, since man walked on earth
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


from my own calculations and stuff from previous events
recorded in core samples I have read about


Maybe 1.1C to 1.5C (which is a lot too) not 11C to 15C, that's virtually impossible in less than a couple of decades.


Greenland’s Lesser-Known Glaciers
NASA Earth Observatory, September 17, 2016
Scientists and crew with NASA’s Operation IceBridge, which makes annual aerial surveys of polar ice, have just concluded another series of science flights over the Arctic. The late-summer flights follow a previous series in April and May. Data from the start and end of the summer melt allows scientists to observe how each season affects the Greenland Ice Sheet.
“Earlier in IceBridge’s history, we only surveyed the elevation of these glaciers once a year,” said IceBridge deputy project scientist Joe MacGregor in a story about the campaign. “But these glaciers experience the climate year-round. Now we’re starting to complete the picture of what happens to them as the year goes on—especially after most of the summer melting has already occurred—so we can measure their cumulative response to that melt.” ...

More see link above.
Quoting 150. thetwilightzone:

96L




96L definitely looks set to be Lisa...or Matthew down the road. Yet another rough weather disturbance for the Cabo Verde (Cape Verde) islands.

God Bless!
BTW, glaciers in Greenland: The stunning photo-website, covering mostly the European Alps, of which I sometimes post photos, got a valuable addition: a photo webcam of Freya-glacier in the Northeast of Greenland. Camera was set up by the Austrian meteorological institute ZAMG but is running completely on its own as there is no one living nearby in this isolated part of the world. If conditions allow the cam provides a fresh picture every day at noon for the public (more pics for the scientists though), transmitted directly by satellite. Below the pics from yesterday (Sept 16) and the day before (Sept 15). You can see the temperature as well (in Celsius).





Source: http://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

Informations about the webcam are in German but there are pictures available of the location and installation of the webcam.
Map of the location.

Here some more infos about the glacier (from 2013 I guess):
Outstanding high mass losses of NE-Greenland's glaciers
As expected, Northeast-Greenland's glaciers observed high mass losses after long-lasting arid weather conditions and concomitant low snow depths during the last winter.
Since the IPY in 2007/08 the Zentralanstalt fuer Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) is performing a detailed mass balance monitoring on Freya glacier, a medium size valley glacier on the East coast of Greenland nearby Zackenberg research station. Freya glacier is one of few glaciers in Greenland where such an elaborated mass balance monitoring with direct measurements is carried out. During the last 6 years, the mean ice thickness loss was about half a meter a year. While the last year ice thickness loss was very low (~ 0.2 meters), it was nearly 1.4 meters this year. ...
Quoting 183. Mediarologist:


What is that? What does that mean? That's not an answer. I mean, for the record I am totally on board with the reality of anthropogenic climate change, and that there is no guarantee the human race is going to pull its head out of its behind in time to survive. But spouting off the equivalent of 'were all going to be dead in 15 years' hurts the credibility of this site. It's counter productive to raising awareness of the actual truth.

Think about the corals.
Quoting 177. Mediarologist:



I think that you, as a moderator here, have some responsibility to not to spout off that extremist doomer stuff. Or if you must, then at the very least support it with something more than 'calculations I made and core sample I read about'.. preferably from sources other than doomer websites. I'm pretty sure that you don't know the future. I really hope I'm not too far out of line here, but seriously what exactly are you basing 11-15C increase in 10-15 years on?


I would say that 11-15C increase in 10-15 years is frankly unbelievable. At the current rate of warming, we are looking at a 1C increase in 15 years. Even if methane starts runaway global warming, I doubt we will go over a 5C rise this century. Granted, that will still have massive and devastating repercussions, but I don't think it will be lethal to the species within the next 150 years.
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


our fate is already sealed
the process has begun with the methane release
and that will take us to a sudden spike of global temp rise
somewhere around the 11 to 14 c range over the next 10 to 15 years
the last time that happen 90 percent of all life was wiped out
add 10 to 15 years to 2016 and well that's 2026 too 2031
its not gonna be pretty by then I assure you

more like in 4,000 years
jesus christ global warming is probably half what they're saying and you're exaggerating the figure which is not even correct by like 50 times
EDIT: Even if that was correct, we would still have storms, which would gather extremely cold air, and when they landfalled, it would cool the area dramatically.
If you look at the NHC website, Karl's cone has shifted significantly south
I'm still monitoring the response to the disaster in the Batanes Islands (Philippines) created by Meranti. They've now managed to reach Basco (Batan Island) by plane to provide goods of relief. But there is still no communication and hence no news about the fate of Itbayat further north. :-(

Latest official report (pdf).

Relief assistance for families affected by Typhoon Ferdie in Batanes underway

Facebook-Site "Help Batanes", dedicated esp. to the fate of Itbayat (I guess once they've reached the island it should be noticed in here immediatedly).

Have to run. Good Saturday morning, everybody!
195. THL3
Quoting 183. Mediarologist:


What is that? What does that mean? That's not an answer. I mean, for the record I am totally on board with the reality of anthropogenic climate change, and that there is no guarantee the human race is going to pull its head out of its behind in time to survive. But spouting off the equivalent of 'were all going to be dead in 15 years' hurts the credibility of this site. It's counter productive to raising awareness of the actual truth.

I'd like to see Drs. Masters or Henson chime in here, and let, say, someone who is new to this forum know that this isn't some crackpot doomer website, that it's actually about science. As a student of atmospheric science it really gets me going to see that stuff baldly asserted as if it God's given truth. So once again, I ask you for your sources Keep.


This site has become a crackpot doomer website. It is a shame. Then there is the IBM thingy.

Quoting 177. Mediarologist:



I think that you, as a moderator here, have some responsibility to not to spout off that extremist doomer stuff. Or if you must, then at the very least support it with something more than 'calculations I made and core sample I read about'.. preferably from sources other than doomer websites. I'm pretty sure that you don't know the future. I really hope I'm not too far out of line here, but seriously what exactly are you basing 11-15C increase in 10-15 years on?
It s just wish casting. He wants 90 % people and animals gone. Truth be told the human population would only benefit If it shrunk to just over 1 billion of people, yet human population continues to rise dramatically...It s projected to hit 7.5 billion soon, all these new humans will leave huge Co2 and methane trail behind them as mankind will need greater amount of food and natural resources to sustain themselves. Just look at that incredible biomass of cattle, which is directly linked to humans.

Quoting 193. tigerdeF:

If you look at the NHC website, Karl's cone has shifted significantly south

Yup {Graphic had advisory 4 as the last frame, I don't know why}

Quoting 124. BobHenson:

Hi, all. Just wanted you to know that we greatly appreciate your patience while we work on the recurrent issues with delays in posting comments. WU stands behind the blog, and Jeff and I greatly value and appreciate the commenting feature as an integral element of it. We hope to get things resolved sooner rather than later. Many thanks for bearing with us!

BTW, the blog renaming is on hold to minimize confusion among those readers who pop in during the peak of hurricane season.

Thanks again for your support, loyalty, and participation. It means a lot to me and Jeff.


Just a suggestion - your site has the ability to issue alerts and warnings for the weather, yet when there are difficulties with the blog we are often left in the dark.
Now I am not recommending that every little "blip" be accompanied by some sort of statement - however, it would be nice and convenient if, when there are technical difficulties that will require some time to fix or may impact the comments section for an extended period of time, we receive some sort of notice. How that would be handled, I leave up to you to determine . . . .

One suggestion would be a "banner" of some sort that indicates that you are experiencing "technical difficulties" with blog comments. This might appear when we come onto the blog . . . that way we are not left wondering what is going on for extended periods of time.
Quoting 194. barbamz:

I'm still monitoring the response to the disaster in the Batanes Islands (Philippines) created by Meranti. They've now managed to reach Basco (Batan Island) by plane to provide goods of relief. But there is still no communication and hence no news about the fate of Itbayat further north. :-(

Latest official report (pdf).

Relief assistance for families affected by Typhoon Ferdie in Batanes underway

Facebook-Site "Help Batanes", dedicated esp. to the fate of Itbayat (I guess once they've reached the islands it should be noticed in here immediatedly).

Have to run. Good Saturday morning, everybody!


There are some initial reports coming out, but not sure where this is coming from.

Typhoon Ferdie's trail of destruction in Batanes

Apparently the airport in Itbayat (not surprisingly) cannot handle any large planes at the moment.

#ReliefPH: Batanes needs potable water, canned goods, fuel

In a Facebook post, Rachel Ponce, a resident of Itbayat who is currently staying in Manila as Abad's aide, pleaded for help as they have yet to contact some towns. She said that immediate needs include potable water and canned goods.

Ponce said they "badly" need attention because the strength of the typhoon was never felt in Batanes before.

She said that since the C130 could not land in Itbayat, they are requesting a helicopter for the town
.
Quoting 191. tigerdeF:



I would say that 11-15C increase in 10-15 years is frankly unbelievable. At the current rate of warming, we are looking at a 1C increase in 15 years. Even if methane starts runaway global warming, I doubt we will go over a 5C rise this century. Granted, that will still have massive and devastating repercussions, but I don't think it will be lethal to the species within the next 150 years.


I'm willing to put money on that. Unfortunately, I won't be around to pay up in 150 years.
karl continues west as a weak system. 92 ex ? thought the plan was for it to end up in texas
Quoting 184. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA
AOI:: Northern GoMx (apology on speed hope film sprockets don't rip/tear)
D&T:: (believe it or not) 201609-17;0345utc till 201609-17;0715utc
NOTE1:: Grothar keep a eyesss out for Julia.& whatever the thing is by the time this message gets posted is and Karl...BTW i don't think of Karl Malone when i think of a TS i think of Karl the butcher (thick arms husky dressed  in white)  on 40th street. in hells kitchen area of Manhattan (this was 1970s)
NOTE2:: This might not form but its the fastest / best symmetrical spin i've seen in years near the USofA


image host




Thing is headed EAST
That crap in the gulf is headed east

Click to enlarge. Source.
(typhoon Ferdie=Meranti; typhoon Gener=Malakas)
YouTube Compilation of Photos from Batanes

Exact locations are not indicated.
96 l is now 40 70.
Quoting 206. isothunder67:


Any reports from that Island on damage?
96L may get interesting for the Caribbean.
After the rest of the Arctic Ocean has cleared, it will take decades for the multiyear ice on the Northern Canadian coast and in the Archipelago, to finally melt out according to simulation models. But the Northern route (up one longitude, across the north Pole and down the 180 degree opposite longitude) will be viable and that will, I think happen sometime in the next ten years for a few weeks in summer.

Santa had better get ready to swim!
Quoting 192. NunoLava1998:


more like in 4,000 years
jesus christ global warming is probably half what they're saying and you're exaggerating the figure which is not even correct by like 50 times
EDIT: Even if that was correct, we would still have storms, which would gather extremely cold air, and when they landfalled, it would cool the area dramatically.

In the next ten years, off by a factor of five to ten, not fifty. Longer term we are indeed in deep trouble and I doubt we will fix it. Our ability to cooperate and sacrifice short term personal, regional and national goals is not sufficient. Again, the tragedy of the commons problem.

But this is a threat for my great grandchildren (my kids are college age), not my grandchildren. That doesn't make it any less alarming, perhaps more so since the threat isn't immediate enough for us (the general population) to see and stop it.
006Z




Current

Could you provide a similar report on the Antarctic Sea Ice.
Thanks,
Alex
This was designated a few days ago as Frankenblob. (96L)



Quoting 192. NunoLava1998:


more like in 4,000 years
jesus christ global warming is probably half what they're saying and you're exaggerating the figure which is not even correct by like 50 times
EDIT: Even if that was correct, we would still have storms, which would gather extremely cold air, and when they landfalled, it would cool the area dramatically.


Keepers hypeebole is dangerous, especially considering most of the concensus within the discipline dismisses the notion of any rapid oe out of control immediate warming scenario. However given rcp pathways the highest scenario suggests up to 5.4C of warming by 2100 which makes your statements also hyperbolic and just as dangerous. There is easily accessible information on the topic, the impacts do not need to be over or under represented. The threat of an increase in global mean temperature of that amount is enough to merit serious concern.
Quoting 214. Grothar:




This is old news from 96L back in July.
Quoting 219. VegasRain:



This is old news from 96L back in July.


I know, that's why is reads EARLY!!!! :)
Quoting 214. Grothar:




July :(
Quoting 222. Grothar:




And the new 96L will likely be fish :( Another one....

224. SLU
225. SLU
226. SLU
Quoting 224. SLU:




I don't know what to say about all these fishes
228. SLU
700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 76 70 61 54 49 43 41 39 39
229. SLU
SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 12 10 9 5 12 17 15 9 7 3
Quoting 221. CaribBoy:



July :(


The blog was broken again. I was trying to remove it and it wouldn't let me back in. By the time I was able to fix it, I had already been humiliated. So just look at the current one and mind your own business :):)
231. SLU
Quoting 227. CaribBoy:



I don't know what to say about all these fishes


Yes this year all the storms that strengthen were fishes and all those that moved west struggled. Been a disappointing season to be honest. Been that way especially from 2013.
Quoting 227. CaribBoy:



I don't know what to say about all these fishes



How about "thank God! No one will get killed or lose their home or family"?
Quoting 192. NunoLava1998:


more like in 4,000 years
jesus christ global warming is probably half what they're saying and you're exaggerating the figure which is not even correct by like 50 times
EDIT: Even if that was correct, we would still have storms, which would gather extremely cold air, and when they landfalled, it would cool the area dramatically.
Maybe post some data..The reseach coming in suggests that it is being underdone, not exaggerated...Especially by 50 times.
Quoting 231. SLU:



Yes this year all the storms that strengthen were fishes and all those that moved west struggled. Been a disappointing season to be honest. Been that way especially from 2013.


So what makes a hurricane season satisfying my fellow Lucian?
The seasons be a-changing!
Barrow Alaska today!
Looking at the visible loop this morning Karl seems to be heading south of west (WSW). The last 7 hours of the visible loop shows it pretty clearly. It's also south of the forecast position for 12 hours from now too with the NHC saying it would be at during the 5am update:

INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 18.1N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

Currently at 9:20am looking at the visible sat and DVORAK have it located at:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2016 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 18:08:40 N Lon : 38:52:08 W

Will be interesting to see if this trend continues throughout today and if it reflects in the 12z & 18z runs later as well.
Quoting 231. SLU:



Yes this year all the storms that strengthen were fishes and all those that moved west struggled. Been a disappointing season to be honest. Been that way especially from 2013.
How do you know they will be OTS storms? What does your crystal ball say about tonight's Powerball numbers?
Beautiful day in Wilmington NC. Sunshine with just some high clouds. Nice breeze. We may get to stick a fork in Julia today because the NHC says remnant low is likely. As much as the NHC gets second guessed, they are usually right in the short run and the long run. Or more right than the majority.
blog bog


Quoting 209. unknowncomic:

Any reports from that Island on damage?

The name of that island is Itbayat. You may like to read comment #205 among others.
Short version: no contact at all = no damage report. Fate of Itbayat is completely unkown as of yet.
Quoting 231. SLU:



Yes this year all the storms that strengthen were fishes and all those that moved west struggled. Been a disappointing season to be honest. Been that way especially from 2013.


I'm fine with fishes. I'm pretty disappointed that so many storms are, once again, struggling to develop into real hurricanes while recurving (only Gaston was fun to look at). Looks like both Karl and Lisa may struggle across the Atlantic and die before their primes.
Quoting 212. georgevandenberghe:


In the next ten years, off by a factor of five to ten, not fifty. Longer term we are indeed in deep trouble and I doubt we will fix it. Our ability to cooperate and sacrifice short term personal, regional and national goals is not sufficient. Again, the tragedy of the commons problem.

But this is a threat for my great grandchildren (my kids are college age), not my grandchildren. That doesn't make it any less alarming, perhaps more so since the threat isn't immediate enough for us (the general population) to see and stop it.

I think we all realise that Keeper's figures are not even meant to be precise. Why I support his posts is his emphasis on the shock effect, and the fact that all the worst-case guesses are constantly being proven too little.
Quoting 215. alex55:

Could you provide a similar report on the Antarctic Sea Ice.
Thanks,
Alex


Since I live in the Northern Hemisphere, and will be directly impacted by what ultimately happens in the Arctic, I could give a rat's * with what happens in the Antarctic. But here - read to your heart's content.

National Snow and Ice Data Center
Not to be that guy but I haven't seen any runs lately of what the models make out of Karl, I know there is some 920 MB perfect circle sitting off the coast of Florida just waiting to be dubbed DOOM. I'm just interested to see how the models are smacking it around.
Quoting 248. CloudyWithAChance:

Not to be that guy but I haven't seen any runs lately of what the models make out of Karl, I know there is some 920 MB perfect circle sitting off the coast of Florida just waiting to be dubbed DOOM. I'm just interested to see how the models are smacking it around.


Still a matter of timing - where Karl might be when in regards to the front and the high pressure system. Give a 2-3 more days, and we'll know what most likely will happen with plenty of time to prepare, if indeed needed.
twc mentioned northern areas of canada temps. are 10 - 20 below average. bet thats a wake up call cold winter ahead
I see the blog is still regurgitating posts in chunks, took almost 30 mins to see my post from this morning. Oh well, off to do errands so I'll check in later.
Quoting 217. Naga5000:



Keepers hypeebole is dangerous, especially considering most of the concensus within the discipline dismisses the notion of any rapid oe out of control immediate warming scenario. However given rcp pathways the highest scenario suggests up to 5.4C of warming by 2100 which makes your statements also hyperbolic and just as dangerous. There is easily accessible information on the topic, the impacts do not need to be over or under represented. The threat of an increase in global mean temperature of that amount is enough to merit serious concern.


I agree. The scientific results are bad enough without exaggeration. Making unsubstantiated claims does nothing to further the discussion, and is just as bad as deniers predicting the next ice age is just around the corner. :P
Remember, we are counting on politicians to pass legislation to curb AGW; problem is they aren't for us. They are against us and for Big Business and Super Rich; which oppose any REAL action that would begin to answer the question of what to do. We have pit our children's future with the lions waiting to devour the sheep and feed the goats. It would be comical if it weren't so forever impacting. The people have become powerless. That changes or we are doomed to our fate of picking all the wrong leaders.
Quoting 234. hydrus:

Maybe post some data..The reseach coming in suggests that it is being underdone, not exaggerated...Especially by 50 times.

No.. I meant that global warming is more like 0.5C now, and not 1C, and i know it's being underdone. The 50x which is a very understatement by the way, is how he said "IT IS GONNA RISE 15C"
Quoting 244. barbamz:




The name of that island is Itbayat. You may like to read comment #205 among others.
Short version: no contact at all = no damage report. Fate of Itbayat is completely unkown as of yet.


There is still no report. They were sending a C-130 to do a fly over on the 14th and a team was scheduled to go out by cutter soon after but I haven't seen any new information. I hope they are okay. If I see any new information I will post it. Back to lurking, happy blogging all :)
Quoting 254. NunoLava1998:


No.. I meant that global warming is more like 0.5C now, and not 1C, and i know it's being underdone. The 50x which is a very understatement by the way, is how he said "IT IS GONNA RISE 15C"








Annual and five-year lowess smoothed temperature changes, with the base period 1951-1980, for three latitude bands that cover 30%, 40% and 30% of the global area. Uncertainty bars (95% confidence limits) for the annual (outer) and five-year smooth (inner) are based on a spatial sampling analysis. These estimates use land and ocean data.

Exactly where would that be?
Quoting 250. islander101010:

twc mentioned northern areas of canada temps. are 10 - 20 below average. bet thats a wake up call cold winter ahead


I'm not sure where you're getting your info from, but the anomaly maps I'm looking at don't show any such deviation. It also doesn't show any long term persistent cold pattern setting up either. There are a number of above normal temps, including a large area over Siberia.

It's way to early to make any sort of predictions about what kind of winter will be in store for the northern hemisphere.
Quoting 252. Xyrus2000:



I agree. The scientific results are bad enough without exaggeration. Making unsubstantiated claims does nothing to further the discussion, and is just as bad as deniers predicting the next ice age is just around the corner. :P
Good morning Xyrus...I am studying ( when I can ) what effects will global warming have on ocean currents. The ocean has a large impact on the atmosphere. Cannot help but wonder if a significant change with the worlds ocean currents would have enough of an impact to reverse the warming trend. At the current rate of warming, even a big change would not stop, but could slow the warming..There are of course other nature events that can cool the Earth, regardless of C02 increases.
remember when all the ice was supposed to melt off? Ha yeah right
Quoting 254. NunoLava1998:


No.. I meant that global warming is more like 0.5C now, and not 1C, and i know it's being underdone. The 50x which is a very understatement by the way, is how he said "IT IS GONNA RISE 15C"
Don't listen to the trolls, hello anybody out their, are they ever going to fix this mess? Hello anybody put their.
261. JRRP7
Quoting 246. EmsiNasklug:


I think we all realise that Keeper's figures are not even meant to be precise. Why I support his posts is his emphasis on the shock effect, and the fact that all the worst-case guesses are constantly being proven too little.



Mankind will not die directly from earth's rapid global warming. Mankind will die from crops that can't grow in extreme heat. This is already happening as farmers can't sustain there production. You want proof don't look at a scientist's pier review group study, go outside and just look up. Our time is short as I agree with Keeper as his realization is correct. What bothers me the most is not that we only have a short time remaining, it's that we can't discuss anything out of what the paid establishment says.
http://www.thelocal.se/20160811/its-snowing-in-augu st-and-the-swedes-are-super-excited-winter
https://weather.com/news/news/hudson-bay-canada-s torm-satellite-images-10aug2016
http://insights.looloo.com/itbayat-batanes-islands/
Quoting 254. NunoLava1998:


No.. I meant that global warming is more like 0.5C now, and not 1C, and i know it's being underdone. The 50x which is a very understatement by the way, is how he said "IT IS GONNA RISE 15C"


That depends entirely on what you're comparing against. If you're comparing current 2m average global temperatures to the "baseline" (1850-1881), then global temperatures have risen about 1.4C. If your using the 1979-2000 baseline, the current global anomaly is about 0.53C.

When it comes to anomalies in general you need to mention the baseline used for establishing those anomalies.
Looking at recent satellite images you can see that wind shear has decreased near Karl. Another concern, Karl will not have to deal with the mountainous terrain of Haiti/Dominican Republic. Just something to watch over the next week.
Quoting 239. NativeSun:

How do you know they will be OTS storms? What does your crystal ball say about tonight's Powerball numbers?


I can't predict the PowerBall, but I can tell you that climatological factors are gradually beginning to make the recurve scenario more and more likely. 00z EPS showing a breakdown of the ridge over the CONUS and being replaced by general troughiness (I'm not sure if that's a word). Of course, this means that by the end of the month and into October we need to begin looking at the Caribbean for threats.


It will be a sad thing if they decide to do away with our blog comments as some have alluded to. I don't know what reason they would have to pull it, unless its too high maintenance. I think a lot of people enjoy this blog because of the professionalism and accuracy of some bloggers, but I also think some people enjoy it as comic relief. I know there have been many times that I would rather be on this blog than watching a good movie. When there is a storm threatening, it just doesnt get any better than this. And it's real time. It's like an internet weather reality show. If they pull these comments, everybody loses. Wait and see.
One of the first things I saw this morning waking up was the Wunderground Facebook post linking to this story.
Wow is about the only reaction I have. The comment to Wunderground Facebook posts on climate are basically 95% climate deniers at this point. It's just awful. The typical stuff you'd expect but even some thinly veiled conspiracies about this site being communist-run because of the name relation to a terrorist group. So bizarre.

I feel bad for Mr. Henson and Dr. Masters, but I hope they continue their efforts to post well-reasoned science as we've come to expect from Weather Underground.
Climate change doubled the chances of Louisiana heavy rains, scientists warn - LINK

"...the Louisiana rainfall was a particularly complicated case, say the scientists, because they had to take into account all the ways that extreme rainfall can occur, including hurricanes, frontal systems, and thunderstorms."
Quoting 259. Icybubba:

remember when all the ice was supposed to melt off? Ha yeah right

Huh?
This post literally shows you the exact data indicating that the ice melting is exactly what is happening right now. It's like you skipped the content just to head to the comments section so you could post some sarcastic quip. And you even failed at that.
Pretty sad that we are at the peak of the season, and there is a lead article about Arctic sea ice levels and not tropical activity.
Quoting 258. hydrus:

Good morning Xyrus...I am studying ( when I can ) what effects will global warming have on ocean currents. The ocean has a large impact on the atmosphere. Cannot help but wonder if a significant change with the worlds ocean currents would have enough of an impact to reverse the warming trend. At the current rate of warming, even a big change would not stop, but could slow the warming..There are of course other nature events that can cool the Earth, regardless of C02 increases. It's probably, more like what effect will the ocean have on Climate Change, after all it's the oceans that control the atmosphere, not the other way around.
I'm trying to help curb methane gas emissions by killing cows one bite at a time.
Quoting 230. Grothar:



The blog was broken again. I was trying to remove it and it wouldn't let me back in. By the time I was able to fix it, I had already been humiliated. So just look at the current one and mind your own business :):)


Don't worry, it's fine. And I didn't want to humiliate you :)
Quoting 234. hydrus:

Maybe post some data..The reseach coming in suggests that it is being underdone, not exaggerated...Especially by 50 times.

Just to throw my hat in the ring in on this one. Considering a large portion of the arctic /permafrost is located in Mr Putin's Siberia I doubt we will get much transparency in regards to data from Mother Russia.
Quoting 267. CybrTeddy:



I can't predict the PowerBall, but I can tell you that climatological factors are gradually beginning to make the recurve scenario more and more likely. 00z EPS showing a breakdown of the ridge over the CONUS and being replaced by general troughiness (I'm not sure if that's a word). Of course, this means that by the end of the month and into October we need to begin looking at the Caribbean for threats.


Maybe not so much this year, as the high is suppose to be stronger and last longer along the east coast this year. The East Coast will have a very warm Fall, with the high firmly in place, most of the time, yes there could be an occasional trough quickly passing threw, but it will not hold, so it all depends on the timing. This will allow more storms to impact the East Coast and Florida, into the Gulf and Caribbean.
Quoting 232. coastbilliken15:




How about "thank God! No one will get killed or lose their home or family"?


What about those in need of rain? Do you think drought is better?



Seriously ?!
Quoting 272. NOLALawyer:

Pretty sad that we are at the peak of the season, and there is a lead article about Arctic sea ice levels and not tropical activity.
Worry only when the Summer in the Arctic is 8 to 10 degrees Celsius warmer, not the winter, because in the winter it's still very, very cold.
Quoting 239. NativeSun:

How do you know they will be OTS storms? What does your crystal ball say about tonight's Powerball numbers?


Models say they will. Models are often right... that's why NHC follow them so closely ....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 272. NOLALawyer:

Pretty sad that we are at the peak of the season, and there is a lead article about Arctic sea ice levels and not tropical activity.
Pretty sad that Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson take the time to research and write and publish an article on the sorry, sorry state of Arctic sea ice, only to have a few people come along and rudely complain about it...
283. SLU
Quoting 235. isothunder67:



So what makes a hurricane season satisfying my fellow Lucian?


An interesting wave train with many healthy waves moving through the islands bringing us reliable rainfall and attractive looking storms far out to sea like Igor 2010.



284. SLU
Quoting 245. CybrTeddy:



I'm fine with fishes. I'm pretty disappointed that so many storms are, once again, struggling to develop into real hurricanes while recurving (only Gaston was fun to look at). Looks like both Karl and Lisa may struggle across the Atlantic and die before their primes.


Yes i agree
Quoting 280. CaribBoy:



Models say they will. Models are often right... that's why NHC follow them so closely ....

Did you just say Models are often right!? LOL Not always Cariboy, and I know you know that. Plus, they said they don;t know whats happening with ridge yet so we'll see
Quoting 268. K8eCane:

It will be a sad thing if they decide to do away with our blog comments as some have alluded to. I don't know what reason they would have to pull it, unless its too high maintenance. I think a lot of people enjoy this blog because of the professionalism and accuracy of some bloggers, but I also think some people enjoy it as comic relief. I know there have been many times that I would rather be on this blog than watching a good movie. When there is a storm threatening, it just doesnt get any better than this. And it's real time. It's like an internet weather reality show. If they pull these comments, everybody loses. Wait and see.




If we had a active Tropical season with land falling hurricanes threatening the US, WU blog would be just fine. What we have now is naked swirls and blobs that sometimes stall and drop tons of rain. So what do you want to say today about the naked swirl that could form but most likely will not. So lets talk about why we can't talk about this or that, as many loose hope of ever having a some what normal hurricane season again. Most on this blog have never experienced a hurricane and the few remaining old timers like me that have are just fading away.
Quoting 282. Neapolitan:

Pretty sad that Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson take the time to research and write and publish an article on the sorry, sorry state of Arctic sea ice, only to have a few people come along and rudely complain about it...
You really ought to climb down from that ivory tower you live in once and a while.
Quoting 222. Grothar:




The ridge will rebuild. Overblown weakness. Westward bound!
Hashtag, I just wanted to see what it feels like.
Quoting 272. NOLALawyer:

Pretty sad that we are at the peak of the season, and there is a lead article about Arctic sea ice levels and not tropical activity.


No biggie. You can wait until November 1st and then go back and read their article about Arctic sea ice minimum which is happening right now.
Quoting 272. NOLALawyer:

Pretty sad that we are at the peak of the season, and there is a lead article about Arctic sea ice levels and not tropical activity.


So ?? Should they avoid to write about the rest of the planet ? What bothers you exactly ?