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Julia More Annoyance Than Threat for U.S.; Keep an Eye on TD 12 in Eastern Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters 1:56 PM GMT on September 15, 2016

After the surprise emergence of Tropical Storm Julia on Tuesday evening while the center was located over land in northeastern Florida, the storm appears determined to stick around through the weekend and annoy coastal South Carolina and North Carolina with days of intermittent rain showers. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed the classic appearance of a storm struggling with high wind shear, with the low-level center of Julia, now a tropical depression, exposed to view, and the heaviest thunderstorms all to the east of the center. Radar loops from Wilmington, North Carolina showed Julia’s heaviest rains were mostly well offshore, with only one modest band affecting coastal North Carolina. The top winds observed at any offshore buoys on Thursday morning were 27 mph, gusting to 36 mph, at buoy 41004, 47 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, at 7:50 am EDT. Storm surge levels along the Southeast U.S. coast at 9:30 am EDT Thursday were 0.7’ or less.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Julia.


Figure 2. Latest radar-estimated rainfall accumulation image for Julia.

Forecast for Julia
Julia is more annoyance than threat, with the storm likely to dump only another 1 - 2” of rain along the immediate coast over the next two days. Wind shear is expected to stay high, 20 - 30 knots, through Sunday, which should prevent any significant intensification as the storm meanders off the coast of South Carolina in an atmosphere with weak steering currents. Our top two models, the GFS and European model, predict that high wind shear and dry air should combine to bring about Julia’s demise by Sunday.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of TD 12.

Tropical Depression 12 continues west with little change
Tropical Depression Twelve brought heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday, and is now pulling away from the islands as it heads west at 16 mph. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed that TD 12 was well-organized, with a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was completed exposed to view due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, with most of the storm’s heavy thunderstorms far from the center. TD 12 is embedded in a moist atmosphere and has warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81°F) under it, and may be able to develop into Tropical Storm Karl this weekend, when the shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. However, the atmosphere surrounding TD 12 will get drier this weekend, which should interfere with development—or possibly dissipate the storm by five days from now, as predicted by the operational GFS model and 17 of its 20 ensemble member forecasts. While most of the 50 members of the European model ensemble show TD 12 eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, 6 out of 50 of the forecasts show the storm hitting the U.S. East Coast 10+ days from now, so it is too early to assume that TD 12 will be a “fish” storm.

Another African tropical wave may develop next week
The 0Z Thursday runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—agreed that a new tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. This storm is expected to take a track more to the west-northwest than TD 12, and is less likely to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 50%, respectively.

Tropical Storm Ian in the central Atlantic: not long to live
Tropical Storm Ian was accelerating to the northeast in the central Atlantic late Thursday morning, and doesn’t have long to live. On Friday, Ian will become entangled with a cold front and an upper level low pressure system, and will transition to an extratropical storm without ever reaching hurricane status. Ian is not a threat to any land areas.

Invest 93E off the Pacific coast of Mexico may threaten the Baja Peninsula next week
In the Eastern Pacific, an area of low pressure a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico (Invest 93E) has grown more organized, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Two of our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis, the UKMET and European models, predicted in their 0Z Thursday runs that 93E would develop into a tropical storm which would hit Mexico’s Baja Peninsula on Monday or Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 80%, respectively.

Storm with subtropical characteristics affecting France and Spain
An extratropical storm (called “Stephanie” by the Free University of Berlin) is in the Bay of Biscay off the west coast of France, and has acquired some subtropical characteristics as it lingers over waters near 23°C (73°F). For more info on this storm, see comment 312 by WU member barbamz in the previous blog post. This storm is expected to move inland near the France/Spain border by Friday morning, spreading heavy rains and gusty winds.

Bob Henson will be back with a new post this afternoon on the typhoon activity in the Western Pacific, along with a a detailed look at a new study finding that landfalling typhoons have increased in intensity in recent decades.

Jeff Masters
Bogue Sound Sunset
Bogue Sound Sunset
Julia sneaking into Bogue Sound, NC

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
Thanks Doc and you described Julia perfectly....ANNOYANCE!
No worries in the GOM folks
TD #12 is going to be something to seriously watch by next week. It is the comebacks of the invest this year yall
TD Julia...

What is with the shear this year?

Hey, that rhymes. I wish I could do that all the time...whoa!

Thanks, Doc.
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
@TropicalTidbits Hermine started this way. Other classic examples include Irene (2011) and Elena (1985).

20m
Quoting 9. Grothar:



Carriboy is gonna enjoy that if this verifies.
with only one modest band affecting coastal North Carolina.

Yea, it just rained on me going to get coffee
Julia more than an annoyance; it is drying the entire southern tier. Many counties in the south moving into severe drought, and 90-100 degrees all the way through the end of September. Moisture disappearing.
Quoting 10. bigwes6844:

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
@TropicalTidbits Hermine started this way. Other classic examples include Irene (2011) and Elena (1985).

20m


Panic button? OK, panic button.

👉🔘
Thank you, doc! Of course I'm thrilled that our subtropical "Stephanie" got mentioned! :-))


Here the latest radar from 3.50pm. Source for updates.
Around seven hours left until landfall. Link.
Quoting 14. win1gamegiantsplease:



Panic button? OK, panic button.

👉🔘


Juuuuuust about time to shut the door on tropical systems in the NW GOM, end of September is season ending for any major to affect TX. And like the sailors quote.....October....All Over.
Quoting 12. win1gamegiantsplease:

with only one modest band affecting coastal North Carolina.

Yea, it just rained on me going to get coffee


I think you mean drizzled.
Quoting 2. K8eCane:

Thanks Doc and you described Julia perfectly....ANNOYANCE!


First Fiona and now this. Brats.
Large system void of convection, probably due to dry air injection.

Quoting 18. K8eCane:



I think you mean drizzled.


Nope, solid rain. Nothing ridiculous, just wasn't prepared for it. I think it's stopped for now.

I think it's 70 mph-75 mph by now, with tropical characteristics. This possibly makes it Hurricane Stephanie.
Quoting 15. barbamz:

Thank you, doc! Of course I'm thrilled that our subtropical "Stephanie" got mentioned! :-))


Here the latest radar from 3.50pm. Source for updates.
Around seven hours left until landfall.

Actually, it's more like 12 hours.

There's a starman waiting in the sky
He'd like to come and meet us
But he thinks he'd blow our minds
There's a starman waiting in the sky
He's told us not to blow it
'Cause he knows it's all worthwhile
He told me
Let the children lose it
Let the children use it
Let all the children boogie


Quoting 3. RitaEvac:

No worries in the GOM folks
How do you know that.
26. IDTH
Quoting 20. Grothar:

Large system void of convection, probably due to dry air injection.



Very large circulation.
What would be the earliest day that TD12 could touch CONUS?
I am going to be stuck in Florida (not flying driving Chicago to Florida) from this Sunday to early next Saturday. IF it were to be a hurricane or bad TS and IF it were to hit somewhere in Florida I would want to know the soonest this would be a possibility. I know many factors can change things but I am just looking at worst case scenario for me. Hoping to be out of Florida by Saturday 9/23 by noon.
Many of the EURO models have moved their models further south, due to the fact TD12 has remained weak. It appears that if TD12 does remain weak, it will stay much further west and more than likely miss the trough which would pull it north. It is possible this would be in the vicinity of the Bahamas next week. While conditions might not be favorable in the Bahamas for a lot of development, we should just remind ourselves of Julia. Also, TD 12 is a much larger system. The high pressure should be pretty strong in the Atlantic next week.



Since that subtropical storm off France is technically in the Atlantic, could the NHC call it STS Karl or is it out of their zone of responsibility? I remember Vince hit Spain, but it did start further west
Quoting 23. NunoLava1998:


Actually, it's more like 12 hours.

According to Arome and WRF landfall in Bilbao (Northern Spain) tonight just after midnight or 1 am (local time which is my time as well :-). Edit: okay, landfall in 8 to 9 hours.
Quoting 29. RockinghamRob:

Since that subtropical storm off France is technically in the Atlantic, could the NHC call it STS Karl or is it out of their zone of responsibility? I remember Vince hit Spain, but it did start further west

Faith went well into the UK and even more east, and the NHC still tracked it. So technically, yes, just not displayed on the map.
Good morning all,

I was hoping to hear more on Meranti from here rather that the talking heads elsewhere. Oh well... I'm sure there will be plenty of info posted on the blog today or I'll wait for Bob's post tonight.
Quoting 30. barbamz:


According to Arome and WRF landfall in Bilbao (Northern Spain) tonight just after midnight or 1 am (local time).

Assuming "local time" is UTC+1, that's in 11 hours.
Quoting 14. win1gamegiantsplease:


Panic button? OK, panic button.

👉🔘


might wanna check with pureet on that panic button usage; I think he's gotta copyright on every last one of'm.

Orlene has been compacted to a size smaller than most mesocyclone complexes. With these dimensions, such a storm could easily run up the length of the Gulf of California intact. I'm not certain how they've determined that its max winds have dropped below hurricane strength in the absence of "ground" truth. Small tropical storms with intact core convection have been known to have surprisingly intense core winds. Camille comes to mind.
Old 92L is now under a burgeoning blob south of the Tx-La border in the Gulf at approximately 92.5W, 27.5 N. Check it out, Rita.
Quoting 12. win1gamegiantsplease:

with only one modest band affecting coastal North Carolina.

Yea, it just rained on me going to get coffee


Yep. The kids had to carry raincoats to school AGAIN! The horror! Seriously though. My grass needs the rain.
I wonder how many people are still posting on the old blog from yesterday??

Stephanie around 1 hour ago. Looks like a tropical storm with an eye, which is likely.

Barely in Stephanie's outer bands, very dark clouds.
Maybe some waves tomorrow AM, south facing beach, hint,hint.


Quoting 39. Brock31:



Yep. The kids had to carry raincoats to school AGAIN! The horror! Seriously though. My grass needs the rain.
Good Morning,

I get the whole "annoyance" part of Julia but the 00z Euro is still calling for 12 inches of rain for Southern Brunswick county in NC, and some parts of coastal SC of 6 inches of rain. its a model run yes but I wouldnt be calling for all is clear just yet. Julia's steering is weak and where Julia sits might just be more of an annoyance for folks who have already seen lots of rain from Hermine.

I'm just hoping for some increased confection.

Quoting 28. Grothar:

Many of the EURO models have moved their models further south, due to the fact TD12 has remained weak. It appears that if TD12 does remain weak, it will stay much further west and more than likely miss the trough which would pull it north. It is possible this would be in the vicinity of the Bahamas next week. While conditions might not be favorable in the Bahamas for a lot of development, we should just remind ourselves of Julia. Also, TD 12 is a much larger system. The high pressure should be pretty strong in the Atlantic next week.




Quoting 40. Grothar:

I wonder how many people are still posting on the old blog from yesterday??


Which one??? ;)
Quoting 40. Grothar:

I wonder how many people are still posting on the old blog from yesterday??



Just the ones who can't find the wunderfbog directory.

🌎 🎑 🌊 🌞
Quoting 45. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'm just hoping for some increased confection.






:-)
Quoting 40. Grothar:

I wonder how many people are still posting on the old blog from yesterday??


I once posted on a blog from like three years previous. Felt like an knucklehead. Actually, I was a knucklehead.
Quoting 13. franckinator:

Julia more than an annoyance; it is drying the entire southern tier. Many counties in the south moving into severe drought, and 90-100 degrees all the way through the end of September. Moisture disappearing.

Fact check. Where Julia is now, what areas are forecasting high temps nearing 100 degrees? I doubt any will hit 90 until next year. I agree they need the rain, but it was dry long before Julia showed up off the coast.
Quoting 41. NunoLava1998:


Stephanie around 1 hour ago. Looks like a tropical storm with an eye, which is likely.


Currently the best looking eye in the whole Atlantic. Which isn't that hard to achieve ;-)

Quoting 33. ChillinInTheKeys:

Good morning all,

I was hoping to hear more on Meranti from here rather that the talking heads elsewhere. Oh well... I'm sure there will be plenty of info posted on the blog today or I'll wait for Bob's post tonight.

i'm assuming many reports from China will be coming out today. Could be the strongest landfall that the city of Xiamen (pop. 3.5 million) has witnessed in a long time.

"According to China's state-run Xinhua, it is the strongest typhoon to hit Fujian province since records began in 1949." - Link
Quoting 15. barbamz:

Thank you, doc! Of course I'm thrilled that our subtropical "Stephanie" got mentioned! :-))


Here the latest radar from 3.50pm. Source for updates.
Around seven hours left until landfall. Link.

Whatever next?
All this going on to the north of me and I never heard a word about it!
Before we know it, there will be sub tropical storms in the North Sea?

Cool at 25/C in southern Spain this week after last weeks 45/C a mere 115F aprox.
Crystal clear visibility and of course sapphire blue skies after we got about an eighth of an inch of rain, or 3mm on Wednesday. First real rain since April!
Nothing to report from here. No clouds, wind, rain, or even mists and fogs.
Meanwhile there was about half an inch of snow to the north of Madrid yesterday, and the locals are creating as much pollution as possible by burning off grass and stubble in the fields in the mornings, in spite of all these climate talks etc, which of course don't affect them?
Quoting 43. HaoleboySurfEC:

Maybe some waves tomorrow AM, south facing beach, hint,hint.





If only there was something like a **cough** **jetty** or something . ;)
Quoting 25. HurricaneAndre:

How do you know that.


Cuz nothing was mentioned in the blog above
Quoting 33. ChillinInTheKeys:
Good morning all,

I was hoping to hear more on Meranti from here rather that the talking heads elsewhere. Oh well... I'm sure there will be plenty of info posted on the blog today or I'll wait for Bob's post tonight.
I just did a Google search for Meranti landfall, and found that it dropped to a Cat 2 just before hitting the Chinese coast.

It seems like there was a lot of wind, rain and damage, and possible inland flooding yet to come, but landfall appears to not have been the disaster it could have been had a strong, large cat2 hurricane hit a GOM coast city, Florida, or the Atlantic coast.

Indeed, Meranti didn' t even rate a mention in Dr. Masters blog entry this morning. However, I expect that Bob or Jeff will be discuss it once the details of the landfall and impact can be accurately summarized.
Quoting 11. bigwes6844:


Carriboy is gonna enjoy that if this verifies.

Which tropical paradise does are dear blog-friend reside on ?
Quoting 48. Patrap:





:-)


They've got it in Galveston, it's a landmark

With saltwater taffy

Quoting 49. Bucsboltsfan:



I once posted on a blog from like three years previous. Felt like an knucklehead. Actually, I was a knucklehead.

A fisherman friend of mine went to a conference of storms and survival in some distant town in Cornwall, on the correct night, correct month, only to find that he was exactly one year late, as it was advertised on a poster he found and he did not notice that it was for the year before.
"An 800-year-old Song dynasty wooden bridge was washed away in Yongchun county in Fujian, the local tourism bureau reported.
"The whole city is heartbroken! The bridge had withstood a long and stormy history but had no luck with Meranti," a statement said." - Link
All quiet on the NW Florida shore.
Just snapped this on my way to the office this morning.
(If anyone is interested, there is a nice Florida cottage for sale a couple of doors down from us!)



Quoting 57. lat25five:


Which tropical paradise does are dear blog-friend reside on ?

St Bart's
Quoting 17. RitaEvac:

Juuuuuust about time to shut the door on tropical systems in the NW GOM, end of September is season ending for any major to affect TX. And like the sailors quote.....October....All Over.
Hope so but... I think that we are going to find more and more weather related 'common wisdom' becoming less applicable to our increasingly supercharged atmosphere. imo
If you live long enough,or just live in a area prone,calamity will find you eventually.

Calamity knows no border's, only men's mind and maps do.

🌎🌊🌋🌞
Quoting 50. JParsons:


Fact check. Where Julia is now, what areas are forecasting high temps nearing 100 degrees? I doubt any will hit 90 until next year. I agree they need the rain, but it was dry long before Julia showed up off the coast.


DC area may see a few +90 days next week. The Carolina and GA Piedmonts still easily hit 90F this time of year
and +100 isn't out of the question climatologically though not common. 9/11/1983 was over 100F in Central New Jersey!
Quoting 11. bigwes6844:


Carriboy is gonna enjoy that if this verifies.


But if they keep saying that it will dissipate or go north of me (I hate the ECMWF ensemble members btw), I won't :((
Quoting 49. Bucsboltsfan:



I once posted on a blog from like three years previous. Felt like an knucklehead. Actually, I was a knucklehead.


Don't worry. Yesterday was a total mess. First you had to do a scavenger hunt to find the correct blog. Then when you found the correct blog it didn't work.
I finally gave up and didn't come back until this morning.
Top Ten rainfall amounts from Meranti in Taiwan:
1. Xidawushan - 863mm (34")
2. Xinwu - 815mm (32")
3. Jinjhenshan - 787mm (31")
4. Tianxiang - 745mm (29.5")
5. Funan - 738.5mm (29")
6. Taipingguoxiao - 734mm (29")
7. Liushidanshan - 733mm (29")
8. Lishan - 726.5mm (28.5")
9. Mingli - 717mm (28")
10. (tied) Wuling & Shiwen - 708mm (28")
Top-10 Accumulated Precipitation 2016/09/13 00:00 ~ 2016/09/15 23:20
(inches rounded to nearest half-inch total)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau - Link
6z NAVGEM:

Quoting 69. GTstormChaserCaleb:

6z NAVGEM:




I want it closer :)
Mindboggling:
1. This --> Link,
2. Malakas
Quoting 63. JNFlori30A:

Hope so but... I think that we are going to find more and more weather related 'common wisdom' becoming less applicable to our increasingly supercharged atmosphere. imo


I find just the opposite has occurred here since 2005

I've interviewed many residents,and have listened intently to scores of people,families...that they are more prepared for disaster, and more likely to evac when told to.

Remember,before K struck us in Aug 2005, Nola was impacted by cat one Cindy..only 7 weeks prior.

Cindy caught myself and Many others off guard.

And before 2005, thousands evacuated for Ivan in 2004 and Dennis too.


And if you were not at least 6 when Betsy hit here,you had never experienced a major.

Those who were 10 when K struck in 2005,are now 21 years old.

They saw calamity wholesale,and you can best believe they will b most prepared to make good decisions, when that the threat arrives.

🌎🎑🌞🌊
Really hoping for long term west track from TD 12...
Quoting 70. CaribBoy:



I want it closer :)

I really want to see one of those go west... slightly north of due west until it crosses FL peninsula intact and doesn't recurve until the center of the GOM... would be so much fun!
Thanks for the update. I'm also glad our European subtropical low* got mentioned :

Subtropical low "Stephanie" today - VIIIRS via #keraunos. Click image for larger version.

From ESTOFEX, Mesoscale discussion, issued Thu. 15 Sep 2016 1200 UTC :
"(...) If the current trend of increasing convection next to the center of the vortex continues (which is well possible given aforementioned environmental setup), a shallow warm core structure may evolve, which is fostered by numerous model data and cyclone phase diagrams. A constant SE-ward motion - as proposed by data - would indicate a landfall over extreme SW France or east of Bilbao (Spain) between 18-00 UTC.
Severe wind gusts would be the main risk but enhanced LL shear with low LCLs may also support an isolated tornado threat during the evening and overnight hours. Heavy rain will be possible."
* Edit : It appears I was wrong there, it's mentioned in the blog entry as an extra-tropical storm that has acquired some subtropical characteristics.
Quoting 72. Patrap:



I find just the opposite has occurred here since 2005

I've interviewed many residents,and have listened intently to scores of people,families...that they are more prepared for disaster, and more likely to evac when told to.

Remember,before K struck us in Aug 2005, Nola was impacted by cat one Cindy..only 7 weeks prior.

Cindy caught myself and Many others off guard.

And before 2005, thousands evacuated for Ivan in 2004 and Dennis too.


And if you were not at least 6 when Betsy hit here,you had never experienced a major.

Those who were 10 when K struck in 2005,are now 21 years old.

They saw calamity wholesale,and you can best believe they will b most prepared to make good decisions, when that the threat arrives.

🌎🎑🌞🌊



I was 4 1/2 and remember Betsy quite well believe it or not.
Quoting 70. CaribBoy:



I want it closer :)
Alright I'll see what I can do. May have to unplug all the models and re-route them. May take some time also to recalculate the physics and calculus equations. I'll try to work my magic for you. Just be careful it may be more than you bargain for. ;)
Quoting 74. DakZekeDez:


I really want to see one of those go west... slightly north of due west until it crosses FL peninsula intact and doesn't recurve until the center of the GOM... would be so much fun!


To quote a phrase from the Three Dog Night song "Momma Told Me" (came out around 1970 or so]

"That ain't the way to have fun"
Quoting 76. ChillinInTheKeys:



I was 4 1/2 and remember Betsy quite well believe it or not.


I was 3 when Alicia hit, and yes I remember it. I remember people coming over to stay at our house because it was an old strong home, I remember the wind, I remember when electricity went out and remember the upstairs closet doors rattling and being told to come downstairs immediately. I remember the damage and trees down the next morning and everything that was going on. Can't believe I have memory from 3 years old but I do.

And how I became a weather buff till this day is because of that storm
Quoting 77. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright I'll see what I can do. May have to unplug all the models and re-route them. May take some time also to recalculate the physics and calculus equations. I'll try to work my magic for you. Just be careful it may be more than you bargain for. ;)


Wash and wax your car, take some panels off the roof to do long needed work and take the furniture outside while you fumigate the house.. That should do it
No recurve in sight


Quoting 78. georgevandenberghe:



To quote a phrase from the Three Dog Night song "Momma Told Me" (came out around 1970 or so]

"That ain't the way to have fun"

I just hope the weather gods don't spoil the fun as they did with Gustav, Ike and others by taking this storm over the greater Antilles and ruining the storm with serious non-CONUS land interaction... such a buzzkill.
Quoting 65. georgevandenberghe:



DC area may see a few +90 days next week. The Carolina and GA Piedmonts still easily hit 90F this time of year
and +100 isn't out of the question climatologically though not common. 9/11/1983 was over 100F in Central New Jersey!


06Z 9/15 GFS is backing off on high heat for DC next week and shifting moderate heat (still crack at 90+) to next weekend but that's pretty far out.

Quoting 77. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright I'll see what I can do. May have to unplug all the models and re-route them. May take some time also to recalculate the physics and calculus equations. I'll try to work my magic for you. Just be careful it may be more than you bargain for. ;)
It may be easier just to photo shop the map to move the Leeward chain a bit North...

Quoting 70. CaribBoy:



I want it closer :)


Then you better hope it's a lot weaker than shown there. Look at the break in the ridge just to it's west, that thing would quickly curve out.
From The Intercept:

'No one's an exception': toll of climate change, from US to the Marshall Islands – video

Link
Quoting 81. bigwes6844:

No recurve in sight


Only if you go by the Clipper climo model... and the crappy CMC... only one decent model (GFDL) recurves it. Let's root for a blend of the HWRF and NOGAPS solutions. Preferably with a track far enough north to miss the greater Antilles land islands and still get buried under the high and truck towards south Florida.
Quoting 79. RitaEvac:



I was 3 when Alicia hit, and yes I remember it. I remember people coming over to stay at our house because it was an old strong home, I remember the wind, I remember when electricity when out and remember the upstairs closet doors rattling and being told to come downstairs immediately. I remember the damage and trees down the next morning and everything that was going on. Can't believe I have memory from 3 years old but I do.

And how I became a weather buff till this day is because of that storm


Went through DONNA in Florida at age 2. No memories at all. First hurricane memory was Betsy in 1965.. just knew it was a bad storm but I wasn't reading newspapers yet at age 7.4.. that started a few months later. An areawide flash flood in the DC area Sept 1966 started my interest.
Typhoon Malakas PGTW 151500 Update:
"TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WARMING PINHOLE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS RECENTLY EMERGED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS
WELL AS A 151028Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND RJTD NOW REPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT T4.5 (90 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THERE IS A
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND CURRENTLY HAVING MINIMAL AFFECT ON THE SYSTEM. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY
TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE."
Recon headed for Julia now.
After having experienced Hermine in North Florida this year (and with many of my neighbors or friends up here losing parts of their homes or vehicles to fallen trees), it took out the fun for me of tracking storms (at least for this year)..............I hope TD 12 forms, and dissipates, and/or never makes it anywhere near the US or Caribbean...........
Actually, the NAVGEM like the GFS shows an ULL cut off from the departing trough in the Central Atlantic responsible for taking Ian OTS and moving into the Eastern Caribbean, however, the only difference is it traverses it through the Caribbean while the GFS takes it over PR and north of Hispaniola. So that's why the forecast is tricky in the long range, it depends on the movement of that ULL.
Explaining Ocean Warming:
Causes, scale, effects and consequences

Edited by D. Laffoley and J. M. Baxter
September 2016

Link
Quoting 84. hunkerdown:


It may be easier just to photo shop the map to move the Leeward chain a bit North...




Your version of photoshop is more capable than mine if it can move the actual islands. Mine just manipulates
images.

Read Stephen King's "Word Processor of the Gods" short story for an analog. Basically what the writer types, then happens.
Quoting 95. georgevandenberghe:



.

Read Stephen King's "Word Processor of the Gods" short story for an analog. Basically what the writer types, then happens.


Wow! Imagine what a wishcaster could do with that ;-)
Quoting 9. Grothar:



Pandora's box! Oh wait, Herbert's box ;-)
Quoting 96. Greg01:



Wow! Imagine what a wishcaster could do with that ;-)


I've mentioned Harold and the Purple Pencil several times on this blog also.
Quoting 75. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the update. I'm also glad our European subtropical low got mentioned :

Subtropical low "Stephanie" today - VIIIRS via #keraunos. Click image for larger version.

From ESTOFEX, Mesoscale discussion, issued Thu. 15 Sep 2016 1200 UTC :
"(...) If the current trend of increasing convection next to the center of the vortex continues (which is well possible given aforementioned environmental setup), a shallow warm core structure may evolve, which is fostered by numerous model data and cyclone phase diagrams. A constant SE-ward motion - as proposed by data - would indicate a landfall over extreme SW France or east of Bilbao (Spain) between 18-00 UTC.
Severe wind gusts would be the main risk but enhanced LL shear with low LCLs may also support an isolated tornado threat during the evening and overnight hours. Heavy rain will be possible."


Hmm as far as I read the Doc said its an extratropical storm with some sub tropical characteristics

Looks like the surface maps have it as a system attached to an occluded front



oh and SST are really tropical (not)!

Quoting 97. SecretStormNerd:


Pandora's box! Oh wait, Herbert's box ;-)


Hebert - no "r" ;-)
Quoting 77. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright I'll see what I can do. May have to unplug all the models and re-route them. May take some time also to recalculate the physics and calculus equations. I'll try to work my magic for you. Just be careful it may be more than you bargain for. ;)


xD

GFS is interesting track wise, but still too weak. Can you also do something to make 12L stronger on the GFS ? :)
Quoting 90. SPShaw:

Typhoon Malakas PGTW 151500 Update:
"TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WARMING PINHOLE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS RECENTLY EMERGED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS
WELL AS A 151028Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND RJTD NOW REPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT T4.5 (90 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THERE IS A
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND CURRENTLY HAVING MINIMAL AFFECT ON THE SYSTEM. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY
TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE."




Don't take your eye off the 10% area in the Gulf. We saw what Julia did, let us be reminded of storms like Humberto and Alicia now not maybe that strong in this case but there is still potential
Finally the GFS is boring :\\\\
Omg! Why another trough when TD12 nears us :\\
110. elioe
Cyclone phase diagrams from models seem to agree that Stephanie has a somewhat warm symmetric shallow core, so subtropical in character. I have read somewhere that the area of responsibility of NHC extends to Greenwich longitude, so are they sleeping or too busy with other cyclones/disturbances? :)

Quoting 53. PlazaRed:

Before we know it, there will be sub tropical storms in the North Sea?




I'm wondering, when there will be subtropical/tropical development in the Baltic Sea basin. In July/August 2010, lake surface temperatures in Southern Finland reached 26 degrees Celsius. I had heard that such temperatures are required for tropical development. Sea temperatures were only 20-23 C, however. Also, I had heard of the case of TS Erin 2007. I really thought there would be a tropical storm in Finland, lol. That solidified my interest in tropical weather. Of course, since then I've learned that other factors are also at play in tropical cyclogenesis than only 26C waters... :)
Quoting 100. Greg01:



Hebert - no "r" ;-)

lol...oops. Tried to look cool and failed! I could've sworn I have seen it spelled that way on here quiet a few times. Or my eyes saw what they wanted to see!
113. elioe
removed duplicate
Quoting 104. Trumpisboss:

Anyone know of a good political forum where I can discuss politics without getting my comments removed?

Here you go. (Note: it's not a science-saved meteorology forum.)
That NW jump just east of the Leewards is not welcome!
Quoting 116. Trumpisboss:


Facebook is bad, Zuckerberg kicks out people who dare to point to the truth about Hillary, not good.



I am a moderate but have conservative friends and have right wing newsfeeds on my facebook account. It's despairing to see all of the conspiracies they dream up but the point here is it isn't getting removed.
122. ariot
Quoting 104. Trumpisboss:

Anyone know of a good political forum where I can discuss politics without getting my comments removed?



No. No one has any clue how to use the internet, other than to get to this specific forum.
We wish there was a site, or several sites that allowed users to "search" for specific things.
But alas, that is just a dream -- science fiction really.
Too bad.
Suggest you go out to your local street corner and talk politics with real live people in person.
Link

hmm
Quoting 101. CaribBoy:



xD

GFS is interesting track wise, but still too weak. Can you also do something to make 12L stronger on the GFS ? :)


I'm out of dilithium crystals so I'm not in a position to do it.


meanwhile in the tropics ...
Quoting 119. Neapolitan:

Well, thanks for making that easy...




I was waiting to see a quote of his/hers under your name
Quoting 123. Trumpisboss:


well I haven t really used Facebook for years and don t really plan to do it, It makes zombies out of people. Well you can try to post the youtube link of Obama saying that he trains ISIL and see whether you get kicked out or not.



You're treading thin ice my friend posting on the blog instead of mail, it might be zapped off. But BaltimoreBrian would probably welcome some debate, find his blog and see how you like it.


CMC says:

"YOU get a trof, and YOU get a trof, and YOU get a trof! EVERYBODY gets a trof!"
This is suppose to be from Julia. Waterspouts and such were expected..

tropical storm julia us coast 2016
ViralVideoLab



Quoting 104. Trumpisboss:

Anyone know of a good political forum where I can discuss politics without getting my comments removed?


You can also start your own blog on WU about it. Or try Brian's blog, he's off busy at the moment but politics are allowed and it gets good traffic. Just stop posting your politics about it in the featured blogs.. You're not that much a noob to know better.


Quoting 112. SecretStormNerd:


Facebook. Plenty of Trump fans there. Have a great time!

Dont feed the birds.
Thanks. What a great blog we have!

Quoting 48. Patrap:





:-)
Quoting 128. GatorWX:

Make the Atlantic great again!



I will concur however, from a moderate standpoint, Hillary's health looks questionable, in all honesty and with all respect. I do feel that's an "issue".

All I got. :)
To be fair, we have had Presidents in the past who have had worst health conditions for example, FDR was diagnosed with Poliomyelitis, which paralyzed him at an early age even before he became President.
Quoting 97. SecretStormNerd:


Pandora's box! Oh wait, Herbert's box ;-)




It's "Hebert box".
12z UKMET

Julia sticks around until Monday off the SE coast..



and the next 2 possible systems in the atlantic..



Where is a mod when you need one?
bless his heart
Hurricane Hunters heading out to Julia
Maybe this WEATHER forum wont have to put up with it again til 2020.
Whatever happened to the NOGAPS model?
Quoting 137. PensacolaDoug:



And the dems, with the help of a compliant media, hid it.


Ever heard of Jax Navy Federal Credit Union? it's VyStar now...

it was started by a man, one of four men actually- who was a polio survivor. He couldn't join the military because he could barely walk- so he started a credit union for the military, instead. He was my father.

So I don't think having POLIO makes you any less EFFECTIVE.
Please keep the comments on topic with the weather and ignore the trolls:

Troposphere
Retrograding Ulac
Upper Air Dynamics
Mesoscale complex
Probably beyond the comprehension of many....................................

Quoting 144. aquak9:



Ever heard of Jax Navy Federal Credit Union? it's VyStar now...

it was started by a man, one of four men actually- who was a polio survivor. He couldn't join the military because he could barely walk- so he started a credit union for the military, instead. He was my father.

So I don't think having POLIO makes you any less EFFECTIVE.



I didn't say it did. I just stated a historical fact. Your dad sounds like one heck of a man!
Julia's losing it!

Quoting 135. PensacolaDoug:





It's "Hebert box".

I know. I was called out on it rather quickly lol
There is so much sinking air out there Julia could have been a bigger threat off the SE coast if there was more rising motion available, since it is likely to stick around for another 5-7 days shear is unpredictable so imagine if it finds a pocket of very low shear for a few days and the upper dynamics become even more favorable, I don't think we are done watching Julia this is September.
I wish TD 12 would strengthen into a hurricane and the models would tighten their forecast track for a south Florida major landfall... so we could coax JFV and the others from out their shells... err, shower curtains...
WOW!!!!! Look at all the DEEP CONVECTION on Malakas!!
Quoting 135. PensacolaDoug:





It's "Hebert box".


For a long time I pronounced that "hee-bert". Recently I was corrected by locals to pronounce it "aay-bear". We live and learn.
NAVGEM showing TD12 as a CAT1 by the end of next week. GFS and Euro, while newer model runs are keeping it longer, don't show it over a TS. What's the reliability of NAVGEM vs the GFS and Euro? And thats NAVGEM, not CMC/GEM.
Uhh..just ignore Trumpisboss, people. I may have to make use of my ignore list again.
Quoting 149. WeatherkidJoe2323:

There is so much sinking air out there Julia could have been a bigger threat off the SE coast if there was more rising motion available, since it is likely to stick around for another 5-7 days shear is unpredictable so imagine if it finds a pocket of very low shear for a few days and the upper dynamics become even more favorable, I don't think we are done watching Julia this is September.


Shear will continue to kill it.
Quoting 134. GTstormChaserCaleb:

To be fair, we have had Presidents in the past who have had worst health conditions for example, FDR was diagnosed with Poliomyelitis, which paralyzed him at an early age even before he became President.


I know.

We didn't have the internet and instant feedback then though, did we?
TD 12 struggling dry air and shear= 2016 season.
161. JRRP
Shear is trying to snuff Julia out

Quoting 138. blueyedbiker:

Im not worried about Hillarys health
I am worried about this countries healty if god forbid she is elected president
All we need is 4 more years of Obama UGH


Feel the bern/johnson, brah
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, on
Tropical Depression Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina
coast, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located west-northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Initially, conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development of this system after it moves
offshore, but these conditions are forecast to become less favorable
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 152. DakZekeDez:

I wish TD 12 would strengthen into a hurricane and the models would tighten their forecast track for a south Florida major landfall... so we could coax JFV and the others from out their shells... err, shower curtains...


Please specify your latitude and longitude to within a quarter of a degree (closer violates internet confidentiality protocols) and I'll order some dilithium crystals from Amazon, get the warp core up to power the atmospheric adjuster and send one your way.
Quoting 139. SunnyDaysFla:

Where is a mod when you need one?



sleeping on the job
Like I said earlier, the Gulf disturbance needs to be watched..

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, on
Tropical Depression Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina
coast, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located west-northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Initially, conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development of this system after it moves
offshore, but these conditions are forecast to become less favorable
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven
Youre right TIB and I apologize. While I remain loyal, this is the wrong forum for it. I know better.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, on
Tropical Depression Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina
coast, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located west-northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Initially, conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development of this system after it moves
offshore, but these conditions are forecast to become less favorable
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Nice wave over Africa!
Quoting 158. Hester122:



Shear will continue to kill it.


That's what I hope, I don't want Julia turning into a major problem

Quoting 168. K8eCane:

Youre right TIB and I apologize. While I remain loyal, this is the wrong forum for it. I know better.
Ok, I am out. Peace to all wu members who didn t put me on ignore (yet):).

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Initially, conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development of this system after it moves
offshore, but these conditions are forecast to become less favorable
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

50% over 5 days....
Wait till you people find out who really sunk the Titanic.

Quoting 152. DakZekeDez:

I wish TD 12 would strengthen into a hurricane and the models would tighten their forecast track for a south Florida major landfall... so we could coax JFV and the others from out their shells... err, shower curtains...

I have yet to decide if you are a troll or not. I guess time will tell. I do not want a major in SFL. I'm good with a moderate TS/Cat 1.
Quoting 176. Grothar:

Wait till you people find out who really sunk the Titanic.



The conspiracy theories on that one are a great read!
Quoting 176. Grothar:

Wait till you people find out who really sunk the Titanic.




To be fair, didn't Captain Nemo say it was an accident?
Quoting 172. bigwes6844:

Nice wave over Africa!

That wave to the lower right looks very interesting. Me thinks we see one more CV low rider this year, then possibly something heading north out of the Caribbean or GOM in October.
The orange is the new wave. I would give you all the info I have that the NHC e-mailed me, but I deleted them all.

re: 169

This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.

I guess the flag works for others, just not for me. Thanks!
Whoa!? I pop in for an update on Julia and find some full on chem-trail tinfoil hattery going on!
Quoting 176. Grothar:

Wait till you people find out who really sunk the Titanic.



Who said it really sank ;)
Quoting 186. Brock31:

Whoa!? I pop in for an update on Julia and find some full on chem-trail tinfoil hattery going on!


While I wouldn't call it tin foil hattery, I do think that we need to keep mentions of politics on this blog to a minimum.
Quoting 109. hurricanehanna:


it's starting to "Blobulate" lol. Can see some of rain from the Houston radars.
Quoting 65. georgevandenberghe:



DC area may see a few +90 days next week. The Carolina and GA Piedmonts still easily hit 90F this time of year
and +100 isn't out of the question climatologically though not common. 9/11/1983 was over 100F in Central New Jersey!

First of all, what does DC have to do with Julia? You know something we don't? But to humor you, I ran 10 day forecasts for DC, Wilmington, Columbia, and Charleston. Highs forecasted from upper 70s to mid 80s. Nothing close to 90 and surely nothing remotely close to 100. Myth busted.
One thing that we know for sure as to the invest wave and the one yet to emerge off of Africa; we are now going into the 11th year in a row with very dry conditions across the Central Atlantic that has prevented hurricane formation in the traditional sweet spot just before reaching the Lesser Antilles between 10N and 20N..................Not holding my breath on either complex so long at they make a beeline due west towards the Antilles in this environment no matter how favorable shear or SST's might be downstream................Struggling tropical storms have become the new norm in this region all the way through the Central Caribbean and beyond for the past decade:





Quoting 17. RitaEvac:

Juuuuuust about time to shut the door on tropical systems in the NW GOM, end of September is season ending for any major to affect TX. And like the sailors quote.....October....All Over.Technically it's after October 15th but most years definitely end of September that we start getting cool fronts in southeast Texas and that protects us from direct hits.

Euro has a westward moving hurricane headed for the Bahamas but this is 2016 so I suspect something like a weak T.S would be more likely.
12z Euro



Quoting 191. JParsons:


First of all, what does DC have to do with Julia? You know something we don't? But to humor you, I ran 10 day forecasts for DC, Wilmington, Columbia, and Charleston. Highs forecasted from upper 70s to mid 80s. Nothing close to 90 and surely nothing remotely close to 100. Myth busted.


GFS backed off on forecast heat next week and slowed it down to next weekend which is far enough out to be questionable. But climatologically, it isn't uncommon to see 90+ at any of these cities in mid September. DC has had numerous late September heat waves and a three day stretch of 90+ Columbus day weekend (early october) 2007. I'm suffering something of a Murphy's law bias (whatever it looks like now it will verify worse] for heat waves this miserably hot September here after the past few which were underforecast ten days out.


Seems like we have model wars again this time with TD 12. Although, the trend in the 12z has been stronger with the NAVGEM, ECMWF, GEM, and HWRF. The GFS is playing lone wolf and who knows he might be right given how hostile conditions have been in the MDR. If the GFS starts trending stronger then it will definitely be something to watch with long term implications on any impacts to the U.S. East Coast.
Trough comes in and saves the day :)
202. JRRP
203. IDTH
Quoting 197. VAbeachhurricanes:

952mb



So far out in time, but such devastating potential with this one. It has that gut feeling that I had with Hermine when I knew it wasn't dead.

Karl........ Such an interesting name. One that should have been retired in 2010 (22 fatalities, 5.6 Billion dollars in damages). The first Major Hurricane known to ever be in the Bay of Campeche. Went from a strong tropical storm to a 956 MB, 125 MPH, Cat 3 major Hurricane.

Perhaps it should have been retired........
204. ackee
Omg if the 12z Euro run that show TD become a major in a very dangerous position the blog would explode also noticed the 12z Euro showing a strom or TD further south in the Atlantic similar to the GFS interesting days ahead
Hurricane Fran 1996, stayed weak until it got closer to the islands and then took off:

206. IDTH
Quoting 205. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hurricane Fran 1996, stayed weak until it got closer to the islands and then took off:



The Last Major to make landfall on NC soil. Many have been close to breaking the record, but Fran was the last one.
eharmonycaster

Quoting 207. DakZekeDez:


Not a troll... who is that young lady in your icon? She's very pretty! tbh.
"HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016

In spite of the dry air nearby, Orlene has re-intensified into a
hurricane. "

Yep, I suspected as much.
AL, 11, 2016091518, , BEST, 0, 321N, 775W, 35, 1007, TS,
AL, 12, 2016091518, , BEST, 0, 177N, 308W, 30, 1008, TD,


Quoting 176. Grothar:

Wait till you people find out who really sunk the Titanic.




It sunk??
Very warm summer, but also a very warm start to the year as climate change kicks into high gear. At Cleveland, it's been the second warmest year on record (based on the threaded records to 1871 and the extended records I have back to 1855) - second only to 2012. Number three is 2010. So the top three 1/1 to 9/14 periods on record are all this decade. Needless to say these temperatures should be considered fairly normal when they occur three times in seven years, and nothing abnormal. In another 15-20 years, we will be seeing temps frequently 2-4F higher than these levels I suspect and unparalleled in the modern record. Looking around the region, most other locations (besides those that have seen massive changes in site location or elevation) are in the top 2-6 range, with even an isolated #1.

As I've said for years climate change is happening - and its happening much faster than is widely believed. The data is flawed, but not as the deniers would have you believe. The reality is it has warmed considerably more than shown on most of the global databases. Now that we have more reliable records, the true warming of the climate is being allowed to manifest itself. In addition, we are experiencing intense regional warming due to air pollution reduction, which had previously been hiding a lot of the warming in the summer months. It's no coincidence that 2010, 2011, 2012, and now 2016 have all been among the hottest summers of all time.

Typhoon Malakas, forecast to clip the northern tip of Taiwan.
Quoting 201. washingtonian115:

Trough comes in and saves the day :)


Bam! You turn your head and trough.
Quoting 206. IDTH:


The Last Major to make landfall on NC soil. Many have been close to breaking the record, but Fran was the last one.


Also one of only two majors to strike the east coast since Andrew, the other being Jeanne. Mentioned that in my blog entry about the storms 20th anny if anyone wants to take a look.
Quoting 207. DakZekeDez:


Not a troll... who is that young lady in your icon? She's very pretty! tbh.


Dying
Quoting 197. VAbeachhurricanes:

952mb



929mb high resolution.
Quoting 205. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hurricane Fran 1996, stayed weak until it got closer to the islands and then took off:




Edouard was in front of it, cooled off the waters and sheared it a tad.
When I hit the "flag" button, am I supposed to get any sort of response to let me know it was received? (I am using Chrome.)
Did the blog die again?
I hope this passes through the House.

Senate approves $1.9 billion Everglades-restoration plan



Washington, D.C. -- On Thursday the U.S. Senate approved legislation authorizing the Army Corps of Engineers to move forward on a major $1.9 billion Everglades-restoration project.

The Senate's approval means the $1.9 bill will head to the House
Bill outlines a series of engineering projects designed to improve water conditions


The Central Everglades Planning Project, which was included in a broader water resources bill that the Senate approved today by a vote of 95 - 3, is a nearly $2 billion series of engineering projects designed to reduce the need for harmful discharges from Lake Okeechobee by sending more water south into the Everglades instead of east and west into the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee rivers.

Senator Bill Nelson, a long-time supporter of Everglades-restoration projects who pushed to get the project included in this year’s water bill, hailed today’s vote as a major step toward restoring the Everglades.

“This is a big win for Florida,” said Nelson. “We’ve seen firsthand the effect these toxic discharges can have on Florida’s waterways and the local communities that depend on them. Getting this project approved is a significant step forward in our ongoing efforts to restore the Everglades and provide folks some much needed relief.”

In addition to CEPP, the broader water bill passed today also includes several other projects important to Florida, including:

Port Everglades dredging – the bill authorizes $322.7 million to deepen the main shipping channels at Port Everglades from 42 feet to 48 feet.

Flagler County Hurricane and Storm Damage Reduction Project – the bill authorizes a $30.78 million beach renourishment project that will extend an existing dune in central Flagler Beach 2.6 miles to help protect State Road A1A, which is the only north-south hurricane evacuation route for communities along the coast.

Picayune Strand Restoration Project – the bill authorizes an additional $113 million for the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to fund new features and improvements to the original design. This amount is on top of the funds originally approved in 2007, bringing the project’s total authorized cost to $618 million.

Daytona Beach Flood Protection project – the bill authorizes the Army Corp of Engineers to conduct a feasibility study for the Daytona Beach Flood Protection project.

The bill now heads to the House for consideration.
Quoting 208. HaoleboySurfEC:

eharmonycaster



What's that? I'm just curious, don't know if that's his girlfriend/wife or just someone he idolizes?
Quoting 165. georgevandenberghe:



Please specify your latitude and longitude to within a quarter of a degree (closer violates internet confidentiality protocols) and I'll order some dilithium crystals from Amazon, get the warp core up to power the atmospheric adjuster and send one your way.

All artificial enhanced TC's while in US territorial waters strictly forbidden south of 26.5. Thank you very much.
Like I said this morning, TD 12 is just one of those systems we'll have to watch and wait on. If it survives to around 55W, which is no given, it should have the go ahead to strengthen.
does anyone know why the got rid of the model data on the wundermap? It was really really useful and I havent found anything quite as effective other than windyty.com. Any ideas?
Quoting 201. washingtonian115:

Trough comes in and saves the day :)



Captain trough to save the day? :) The worrying thing is that the Euro has been trending more west. It could get to the point where the system is in the bahamas and depending on the timing of the trough could be the difference as to whether it stays OTS recurving close to the coast, or if ends up landfalling whilst being picked up by the trough. Something to keep a very close eye on. The outlier model in terms of intensity at the moment is the GFS - if that comes aboard then we could be looking at a very serious situation.
Yo wut hapnt to dis blogg, lets tawk julie n tropical discretion 12 n such
Awww ...



Sad, drenched koala is the face of Australia floods
Telegraph, 15 September 2016 • 10:05am

Flooded state of Victoria prepares for potential disaster
6:27 AM Friday Sep 16, 2016

93E/proto-Paine showing a vigorous rotation under the highest overcast with evidence of banding.
Does anyone know why they got rid of model data on the Wundermap? Any alternatives for wind speeds on a moveable Globe type format similar?
Does anyone know why the took out model data from the wondermap or have a similar alternative?
grrrr



this is getting vary old
Being we are entering the second half of the season, model forecasts are all going to come down to trough timing, which are some of the worst things to forecast out past 5 days. I forsee a lot of flip flopping with them the rest of the week.

R.I.P. random TS that formed near France for like no reason
we will miss you
you C3
Quoting 199. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Seems like we have model wars again this time with TD 12. Although, the trend in the 12z has been stronger with the NAVGEM, ECMWF, GEM, and HWRF. The GFS is playing lone wolf and who knows he might be right given how hostile conditions have been in the MDR. If the GFS starts trending stronger then it will definitely be something to watch with long term implications on any impacts to the U.S. East Coast.


GFS versus the world just like with 99L in the early stages
Quoting 208. HaoleboySurfEC:

eharmonycaster




$10 DZD is SNS's husband.

He found you! your secret is out! lol
I give up again on TD12

12z models are deeply depressing.
I think that the GFS is a follower now.
The N Leewards should move northward by 3-4 degrees :\\ Weather would be wetter and it's a better position to experience storms.
Quoting 203. IDTH:


So far out in time, but such devastating potential with this one. It has that gut feeling that I had with Hermine when I knew it wasn't dead.

Karl........ Such an interesting name. One that should have been retired in 2010 (22 fatalities, 5.6 Billion dollars in damages). The first Major Hurricane known to ever be in the Bay of Campeche. Went from a strong tropical storm to a 956 MB, 125 MPH, Cat 3 major Hurricane.

Perhaps it should have been retired........

Maybe it wants to be retired :p. I typically hate depressions or waves that far out that have so much potential because it already feels like we have been talking about this one for a week.
test!!!!!!! is this really happening again.

Mini Heat Wave.... this showed up at 13:33
Quoting 211. thetwilightzone:

AL, 12, 2016091518, , BEST, 0, 177N, 308W, 30, 1008, TD,





Seems to be gaining convection.
Quoting 220. oldnewmex:

When I hit the "flag" button, am I supposed to get any sort of response to let me know it was received? (I am using Chrome.)


Used to change color like a + does, but I haven't seen that in a long while.
Quoting 223. DakZekeDez:


What's that? I'm just curious, don't know if that's his girlfriend/wife or just someone he idolizes?


Thats her............
NWS Houston

Tropical...
The low pressure area in the Gulf has seen a bump up in its
development potential to 20 percent today, which is warranted
given its convective performance this morning, and its developing
circulation. It has not been able to advance or really even
sustain its convective appearance this afternoon, though for an
undeveloped system, it`s not really to be expected at this stage
of development. It is riding along a pretty sharp gradient in
shear, and its future track may provide the limiting factor on its
potential. Over SE Texas, shear is quite high, and any drift north
of west would be likely to keep this area undeveloped. Further
slow development may be possible on a due west track in moderate
to marginally favorable shear, while better development may be
possible if it drifts a bit south of west where shear is a little
more relaxed. Of course, with the gradient oriented in this
manner, any impacts for our area would likely to be more or less
the same regardless of what happens.
Eh. More disk issues in WU? Here, I donate a new one ...



F13, bringing you more news about STEPANI
Quoting 221. SecretStormNerd:

Did the blog die again?

Luckily it was a short death this time....


MF Arpege Model
Ok, but keep PR where it is.


Quoting 242. CaribBoy:

The N Leewards should move northward by 3-4 degrees :\\ Weather would be wetter and it's a better position to experience storms.
Quoting 238. Grothar:




Depressing. Hopefully not a trend.
Quoting 235. Michfan:

Being we are entering the second half of the season, model forecasts are all going to come down to trough timing, which are some of the worst things to forecast out past 5 days. I forsee a lot of flip flopping with them the rest of the week.


Bad part is that a model consensus on an Atlantic ridge is pretty reliable. So something with potential *will* come West but may or may not get turned out in time.
i'm out. Too hard to follow with slow/delayed blog. Time to do research on different weather sites. Good day bloggers.
test 13:36 finally caught up....
Typhoon Gener has signal warnings for extreme northern Luzon now.

Signal Warning

Signal Warning #1

Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Luzon Region
----------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands
260. bwi
I noticed that both the ECMWF and GFS have a low-rider low way down at or below 10n at 240 hours. Very distant, obviously, but a TD way down at or below 10n is a concern...


Quoting 246. SunnyDaysFla:



Seems to be gaining convection.


Wrapping around

What the ‘sixth extinction’ will look like in the oceans: The largest species die off first

We mostly can’t see it around us, and too few of us seem to care — but nonetheless, scientists are increasingly convinced that the world is barreling towards what has been called a “sixth mass extinction” event. Simply put, species are going extinct at a rate that far exceeds what you would expect to see naturally, as a result of a major perturbation to the system.
In this case, the perturbation is us, rather than, say, an asteroid. As such, you might expect to see some patterns to extinctions that reflect our particular way of causing ecological destruction. And indeed, a new study published Wednesday in Science magazine confirms this. For the world’s oceans, it finds, threats of extinction aren’t apportioned equally among all species — rather, the larger ones, in terms of body size and mass, are uniquely imperiled right now.
From sharks to whales, giant clams, sea turtles, and tuna, the disproportionate threat to larger marine organisms reflects the “unique human propensity to cull the largest members of a population,” the authors write.
“What to us was surprising was that we did not see a similar kind of pattern in any of the previous mass extinction events that we studied,” said geoscientist Jonathan Payne of Stanford University, the study’s lead author. “So that indicated that there really is no good ecological analogue…this pattern has not happened before in the half billion years of the animal fossil record.”
The researchers conducted the work through a statistical analysis of a 2,497 different marine animal groups at one taxonomic level higher than the level of species — called “genera.” And they found that increases in an organism’s body size were strongly linked to an increased risk of extinction in the present period — but that this was not the case in the Earth’s distant past.
Indeed, during the past 66 million years, there was actually a small link between smaller body sizes and going extinct, marking the present as a strong reversal. “The extreme bias against large-bodied animals distinguishes the modern diversity crisis from all potential deep-time analogs,” the researchers write.
The study also notes that on land, we’ve already seen the same pattern — and in fact, we saw it first. “Human hunting has been extensive for many thousands of years on land, whereas it’s been extensive for a couple of hundred years in the oceans,” says Payne.
Thus, humans already drove to extinction many land-based large animal species in what has been dubbed the Late Quaternary extinction event as the most recent ice age came to a close..
“These losses in the ocean are paralleling what humans did to land animals some 50,000 to 10,000 years ago, when we wiped out around half of the big-bodied mammal species on Earth, like mammoths, mastodons, saber-tooth cats and the like,” said Anthony Barnosky, executive director of Stanford Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, who was not involved in the study but reviewed it for the Post. “As a result, terrestrial ecosystems were locked into a new trajectory that included local biodiversity loss over and above the loss of the large animals themselves, and changes in which kinds of plants dominated.”
Barnosky was the co-author of a study published last year that found an “exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way.”
A particular problem, says Payne, is that if you take out all the top predators, then the species they used to prey upon can run amok and explode in population, having large reverberating effects on the entire ecosystem.
“The preferential removal of the largest animals from the modern oceans, unprecedented in the history of animal life, may disrupt ecosystems for millions of years even at levels of taxonomic loss far below those of previous mass extinctions,” the authors write.

Interestingly, if climate change was the key driver of species losses, you’d expect a more evenly distributed set of risks to organisms.
“I’ve worked on the Permian mass extinction quite a bit, it shows environmental evidence of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation, the loss of oxygen from seawater,” says Payne. These are the very same threats to the oceans that we’re worried about now due to ongoing climate change. But the Permian extinction, some 250 million years ago, did not feature a selective disappearance of large-bodied organisms, Payne says.
Thus, as previous work has also suggested, the current study underscores ecosystem risks are not being principally driven by a changing climate — yet. Rather, they’re being driven more directly by humans which species hunt and fish, and where they destroy ecosystems to build homes, farms, cities, and much more. But as climate change worsens, it will compound what’s already happening.
“The losses the authors describe in the oceans do not include the extinctions expected from business-as-usual climate change,” said Barnosky. “Adding those human-triggered losses onto those we’re already causing from over-fishing, pollution, and so on is very likely to put the human race in the same class as an asteroid strike–like the one that killed the dinosaurs–as an extinction driver.”
The study emerges even as the U.S. State Department prepares to open its third annual Our Ocean conference, where heads of state and ocean advocates convene to try to protect more and more of the oceans’ area from over-fishing and other forms of despoilment (and climate change). The study should only heighten the focus at that event.
But Payne says that, in a way, the research is in some ways heartening for those who care about ocean conservation – precisely because human-driven large animal extinctions in the sea are not as advanced as they are on land, there is still a huge amount of biological life that we can save.
“I talked to a couple of people who said they found this a very discouraging result,” Payne says. “I tend not to look at it that way. I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the oceans, because we haven’t impacted them much yet.”

The Washington Post
Chris Mooney
18 hrs ago
TD 12 has a very nice solid structure.
If only TD12 was at 15N............
Quoting 261. Grothar:



Wrapping around




Track shifted north....
Quoting 99. VR46L:

Looks like the surface maps have it as a system attached to an occluded front

VR was right, the center of Stephanie with its subtropical characteristics never got detached from the front. Here the latest surface analysis:


Source.

Landfall now is imminent. The eye has lost its earlier distinctness, though:


Source.

Latest visible earlier this evening:



BTW, meanwhile a lot of European weather sites, including some German, payed attention to our hybrid Stephanie. Here a nice pic vom Meteo-France:



Best wishes to all in the area of landfall! And everywhere else, too. Good night from my side.

BTW, still no news from Itbayat (Philippines)! Here the link to a tweet with the last post from the priest of the island just before the full force of Meranti hit. Some words are in English.
As a new morning has broken over there I really hope they'll be able to contact the island today!!
Reading the NHC's discussion if TD12 develops at all it will go north, if it stays a weak system it will stay in a general westerly direction.
Now that TD12 is no longer forecast to dissipate, it's disappointing to see that it will miss us, leave us dry and only bring annoyance (heat and boring high seas)
Quoting 242. CaribBoy:

The N Leewards should move northward by 3-4 degrees :\\ Weather would be wetter and it's a better position to experience storms.


Hate to tell ya but if TD12 develops its another swing and a miss for you.
Hi Julia I see you are a Tropical Storm again
Good Afternoon Sensei.....


:( Hard to say good bye

She's gettin' dressed for the party.

What's with the blog issues every day ??????
Hopefully the ridge will last longer
Quoting 236. NunoLava1998:


R.I.P. random TS that formed near France for like no reason
we will miss you
you C3

Looks like it is/was closer to Spain than France.
Quoting 261. Grothar:



Wrapping around



I think TD 12 may make a run for Karl before it encounters the more unfavorable conditions.
Julia is back! ^___^ in Tropical Storm character lol
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

Deep convection has redeveloped in the northeastern quadrant of the
depression, although it is still a good distance away from the
center. Consequently, Dvorak classifications are just about the
same as earlier, and the initial wind speed estimate is kept at 30
kt. Southwesterly wind shear is expected to continue for a day or
two while the cyclone remains under the influence of an upper-level
trough. This trough is then expected to be replaced by a ridge in a
couple of days, with generally lighter shear by early next week.
While some weakening is still forecast, model guidance is in better
agreement on the depression eventually reaching a more conducive
environment for restrengthening, and the official intensity forecast
is raised a bit in the long term. This forecast could be
conservative for next week if the rather conducive environments
forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET models materialize.


The cyclone continues moving westward at 11 kt, and a west or
west-southwest motion is expected for the next few days while the
depression moves around a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast due to the
system reaching the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The model
guidance has spread out some on this cycle, with the UKMET having
shifted a fair distance north of its previous run. A stronger
system would probably turn a bit more to the west-northwest given
the forecast upper-level southeasterly winds. Since the intensity
prediction is higher than the last one, it makes sense to show the
cyclone gaining some latitude by the end of the forecast period. The
new NHC forecast is adjusted to the north of the previous one, but
still lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.8N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.9N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.8N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 17.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN


Technical blog issues: should we be worried about IBM assets? ;-)
Link
Blog having trouble again
Quoting 239. MonsterTrough:



$10 DZD is SNS's husband.

He found you! your secret is out! lol

LOL NOPE! My husband is a systems engineer for Eli Lilly. Pretty sure he doesn't have time to troll during the day.
Julia a TS again

Somethin' interestin' happenin' Souf of ole Lake Charles
My Gawd not this Shiz again with the blog being broken....The kids are at practice and I needed something to do.
Quoting 250. barbamz:
Eh. More disk issues in WU? Here, I donate a new one ...


I would hope not. Five years ago, when I was near the end of my corporate IT career, our hardware guys maintained multi-disk RAID arrays with hot-swappable disks that could be changed our almost instantly with no loss of data, and backup arrays that we could switch over to quickly. There is really no excuse for long-lasting disk and similar hardware problems these days. Unless the hardware systems are under funded, and perhaps they won't pay the money for talented and experienced tech and engineers.

Does IBM/WU really care if a bunch of blog visitors (weather nerds like us) are inconvenienced for a few hours? Probably not really, unless there is much revenue to be lost.

For me, it's frustrating when the site has issues and the blog commenting function freezes, but not a real "problem." I just go and do other things for a while. This is a blog, not a critical weather info website. Anyone with an ounce of common sense gets their area's weather info and warnings from their local government and commercial weather organizations.

Edit: When I submitted this comment, posting delays were 35 minutes - my comment took 12 minutes to appear. Plusses were appearing immediately.

Edit 2: The above edit took about two minutes to show up.
.
My wife is named Julia, I just read her the start of the headlne, with an added ayup.

In jest of course.
Quoting 291. Grothar:






Are you still warning to watch the Bahamas?


Friendly shear ahead and just enough resistance to keep it west.
850mb vorticity impressive

Quoting 292. SunnyDaysFla:



Are you still warning to watch the Bahamas?




yes, This one will struggle a little and it might even dissipate, but it is a large system and the chances are probably better than 60% it will be weak enough to miss the trough. Although, conditions in the Bahamas don't look that favorable at the end of next week. The models are currently going with movement towards the weakness in the high next week.
drop a cow on WU hard drive
Quoting 296. thetwilightzone:

drop a cow on WU hard drive


I think that steak has been served... Hopefully "Rare".
Quoting 296. thetwilightzone:

drop a cow on WU hard drive


Add a patty to that
12L has only begun to fight


Now I know why I was stocking up on supplies
this one looks like a classic with low shear ahead and plenty of warm Atlantic around it
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but looks like nothing to stop it unless it curves out to sea. Even then it would be a battering ram for our ice caps.
Quoting 296. thetwilightzone:

drop a cow on WU hard drive


Maybe just hold that cow overhead until the inevitable happens.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TYPHOON GENER
5:00 AM PhST September 16 2016
======================
Typhoon "GENER" has slightly intensified as it continues to move in a Northwest direction

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Gener (MALAKAS) [963 hPa] located at 19.4N 125.3E or 405 km east of Calayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gustiness up to 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warning

Signal Warning #1

Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting 299. Chicklit:

12L has only begun to fight



Did you get any bad weather from Julia? You are in Charleston right?

Quoting 242. CaribBoy:

The N Leewards should move northward by 3-4 degrees :\\ Weather would be wetter and it's a better position to experience storms.


Quoting 270. luvtogolf:



Hate to tell ya but if TD12 develops its another swing and a miss for you.


And another slam dunk for me, sorry CaribBoy.
Quoting 302. SunnyDaysFla:



Did you get any bad weather from Julia? You are in Charleston right?



I am in New Smyrna Beach; we're between Daytona and Titusville along the coast.
It may have become a tropical storm right over our heads.
On Monday, we had pleasant tropical storm conditions for the most part. Then Tuesday morning, a strong band came up along the Space Coast, with probable microbursts here at about 9:30 a.m. It caused some minor flooding and very sparse damage to property. A Norfolk Pine several hundred feet away shed a branch on my road.
That was the extent of it. We are grateful for the rain.


304. Chicklit

Thanks for the reply. I have trouble remembering where people are located. It has been a while since we had drought in
Tampa, but I know I hated putting perfectly good water on the ground. Maybe that is why I have patience with CaribBoy"s lamentations, LOL
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
i say when was the last time this blog went down for blog maintenance seems like never


i think its time that WU got a new hard drive

The convection is at 40, 50 red wind shear
The center is forming an anticyclone at 16N 33W
Out of the 50 ensembles member of the ECMWF, 8 of its members ( E7, E19, E23, E25, E26, E27, E30, & E31) in the 12z run showed Tropical Depression 12 becoming a hurricane and making landfall somewhere along the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine. Member E19 shows it going into the GOM.
GFS does not develop T.D but it does show a stronger ridge.