WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Meranti Approaches China Coast After Sweeping Past Taiwan

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:50 PM GMT on September 14, 2016

One of the strongest tropical cyclones in modern weather history, Typhoon Meranti, was approaching the southeast China coast late Wednesday night local time (Wednesday afternoon EDT). As of 16Z (noon EDT), Meranti was located by the Japan Meteorological Agency near 23.8°N, 118.6°E, or about 50 miles southeast of the coastal city of Xiamen in China’s Fujian province. On its steady northwest track at about 12 mph, Meranti should make landfall near or just south of Xiamen at around 4 pm EDT.

Meranti tracked just south of Taiwan’s mountainous south end over the last 24 hours, which disrupted its circulation and put a huge dent in its top sustained winds. You can see the weakening of the typhoon as it passed by Taiwan on this long radar loop from Taiwan compiled by Brian McNoldy. At noon EDT Wednesday, Meranti’s 10-minute average winds were down to 105 mph, according to JMA. The 1-minute average wind used by U.S. agencies is typically around 14% greater than the 10-minute average, so the JMA value would correspond roughly to a 115-mph low-end Category 3 hurricane. Meranti could weaken a bit further before landfall.


Figure 1. This enhanced infrared satellite image shows Typhoon Meranti nearing the coast of China at 1700Z (1:00 pm EDT) Wednesday, September 14, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

In spite of its decline, Meranti retains the potential to produce a major storm surge along the China coast. It takes some time for the huge amounts of water being pushed by a major hurricane or typhoon to subside, even after the storm itself weakens. Two good examples are Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy, both of which produced catastrophic storm surge despite significant weakening of their top winds in the hours before landfall. Meranti’s surge would be worst just to the north of its center, and this part of the storm is aimed at the city of Xiamen (population 3.5 million), one of the world’s 20 busiest ports for container shipping. Because China’s coast is so densely populated, storm surge can threaten huge numbers of people. In 1994, Typhoon Fred struck the province of Zhejiang after weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm. Fred still managed to produce a top surge of just under 9 feet that affected more than 22 million people, as noted by storm surge expert Hal Needham.

Torrential rains are another serious threat from Meranti across east central China. Widespread 3” - 6” rains can be expected near the typhoon’s track as it moves inland, with localized 10” - 15” amounts quite possible. The heavy rain may extend further north later this week, toward Shanghai, as Meranti’s remnants are swept northward. In 1983, Typhoon Wayne followed a very similar track to Meranti, passing just south of Taiwan and weakening from a Category 4 to Category 1 before landfall several dozen miles south of Xiamen. Coastal and inland flooding linked to Wayne in Fujian and Guangdong provinces led to 105 deaths and the collapse of some 30,000 structures.


Figure 2. A local resident removes a rock from a blocked road in southern Pingtung county as Typhoon Meranti slashes southern Taiwan on September 14, 2016. Image credit: Sam YehAFP/Getty Images.


Figure 3. Power lines downed by Meranti partially block the road in southern Taiwan’s Pingtung county on September 14, 2016. Image credit: Sam YehAFP/Getty Images.

Meranti’s impacts on Taiwan and the Philippines
Meranti’s path just south of Taiwan kept the typhoon’s fiercest winds and waves focused on the sparsely populated southeast flank of the island, which greatly reduced the impact on people and property. The South China Morning Post reported that at least one person was missing, 35 were injured, and power and water supply was knocked out to more than 600,000 homes, according to Taiwan’s Central Emergency Operation Centre. The largest city affected was Kaohsiung, on Taiwan’s southwest coast, which received a glancing but still powerful blow as Meranti swept past to the south. Kaohsiung International Airport reported top sustained winds of 71 mph at 12:30 pm local time Wednesday, with a gust to 112 mph shortly thereafter. A number of rainfall amounts topping 500 mm (about 20”) were reported in far southern Taiwan. Xidawushan, in Taiwu Township (in the mountains about 25 miles east of Kaohsiung) reported a total of 799.5 mm (31.48”) from midnight to midnight local time Wednesday, September 14. Of that total, 685 mm (26.97”) fell in just 12 hours. (Thanks to Michael Theusner and Jérôme Reynaud for these rainfall statistics.)

One of the most poignant of many stunning satellites images of Meranti was the view in Figure 4 (below), with Meranti’s eye completely enveloping the tiny Philippines island of Itbayat and its 3,000 residents. As of midday Wednesday, there was no word of conditions on the island. Channel NewsAsia reported that the Philippines government would be sending a civil defense team to Itbayat at a time yet to be determined.


Figure 4. At 17:32 UTC Tuesday (1:32 pm EDT Tuesday or 1:32 am local time Wednesday), the eye of Meranti lay directly over the Philippines’ Itbayat Island, as seen in this visible-light image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite, taken in the bright moonlight that evening. Itbayat recorded sustained winds of 112 mph (10-minute average) and a pressure of 934 mb at 1 am local time, 32 minutes prior to this image. At the time, Meranti was a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds and a central pressure of 890 mb. Thanks go to WU member Barefootontherocks for posting this image in the blog comments.

History of major typhoon landfalls in China
China has a long history of major typhoon landfalls. Since record keeping in the Northwest Pacific began in 1945, there have been two Category 5 storms to make landfall in China, twelve Category 4 storms, and eighteen Category 3 storms. We constructed the list below using data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the Northwest Pacific, as plotted on NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website. These storms were all rated Category 3 or stronger in their last 6-hour position before they made landfall in China:

Landfalls South of Hong Kong

Category 5:
160 mph, Super Typhoon Rammasun, July 18, 2014

Category 4:
140 mph, Typhoon Hagupit, September 24, 2008
140 mph, Typhoon Ruby, September 5, 1964
140 mph, Typhoon Kate, September 25, 1955
130 mph, Typhoon Vicente, July 23, 2012
130 mph, Typhoon Betty, October 31, 1953

Category 3:
125 mph, Typhoon Sally, September 9, 1996
125 mph, Typhoon Susan, September 18, 1953
125 mph, Typhoon Rose, August 16, 1971
115 mph, Typhoon Pamela, November 8, 1972
115 mph, Typhoon Ophelia, August 14, 1953
115 mph, Typhoon Winnie, July 1, 1964
115 mph, Typhoon Freda, July 15, 1965

Landfalls North of Hong Kong

Category 5:
160 mph, Super Typhoon Cora, September 5, 1966

Category 4:
150 mph, Super Typhoon Saomai, August 10, 2006
150 mph, Super Typhoon Alice, September 3, 1966
150 mph, Super Typhoon Wanda, August 1, 1956
145 mph, Typhoon Rita, September 1, 1953
140 mph, Typhoon Bilis, August 23, 2000
140 mph, Typhoon Nina, August 16, 1953
130 mph, Typhoon Grace, September 4, 1958

Category 3:
125 mph, Typhoon Joan, August 30, 1959
120 mph, Typhoon Khanun, September 11, 2005
120 mph, Typhoon Wipha, September 19, 2007
120 mph, Typhoon Hope, August 2, 1979
120 mph, Typhoon Amy, July 18, 1991
120 mph, Typhoon Dujuan, September 2, 2003
115 mph, Typhoon Usagi, September 22, 2013
115 mph, Typhoon Viola, July 28, 1969
115 mph, Typhoon Abe, September 14, 1993
115 mph, Typhoon Harriet, July 29, 1952
115 mph, Typhoon Tim, July 10, 1994

Meranti tied for tenth strongest tropical cyclone in history (by wind)
Meranti peaked at 2 pm EDT Tuesday, September 13, with sustained winds of 190 mph. This makes it tied for tenth strongest tropical cyclone in world history (by 1-minute averaged wind speed), according to the “best-track” data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center. In addition, Meranti's 890 mb central pressure at the time made it the seventeenth strongest tropical cyclone on record, by pressure.

Officially, here are their top-ten strongest tropical cyclones in world history, by maximum sustained winds:

1) Hurricane Patricia (2015), 215 mph winds (the only Eastern Pacific storm on this list)
2) Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.
3) Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.
4) Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.
5) Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines with 190 mph winds.
5) Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.
5) Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.
5) Super Typhoon Opal (1964), 195 mph winds
5) Super Typhoon Joan (1959), 195 mph winds
10) Super Typhoon Meranti, 190 mph winds, 890 mb pressure.
10) Super Typhoon Tip (1979), 190 mph winds
10) Super Typhoon Vera (1959), 190 mph winds
10) Super Typhoon Louise/Marge (1964), 190 mph winds
10) Hurricane Allen (1980), 190 mph winds (the only Atlantic storm on this list)

However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former head of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, had this to say about the winds measured in Super Typhoon Nancy and the other high-end typhoons from this list from the 1960s:

"I would not take the winds seriously because reconnaissance meteorologists estimated them visually. A decade later when I flew with the VW-1 hurricane hunters, we had the same Doppler system used to measure the winds of Typhoon Nancy. It tracked the aircraft motion relative to the (possibly moving) sea surface. It couldn't get a coherent signal in high winds because the beam reflected from both the actual surface (whatever that is) and blowing spray. Visual estimates are dubious because the surface (under the eyewall!) is hard to see unless you are flying below cloud base (200-300 m) and also because appreciably above 115 mph, it's completely white with blowing spray. We used to think that we could estimate stronger winds from the decreasing coverage of slightly greenish patches where the spray was thinner. I now think that we were kidding ourselves. In those days the distinctions among wind gust, sustained one-minute winds, etc., were less well defined than they are now. So we may never know what the 1960s reconnaissance data really means!”

For a complete update on activity in the Atlantic, including unexpected Tropical Storm Julia, see our post from earlier Wednesday. Apologies for the site issues and lack of blog access this morning; we had a disk issue that was causing us trouble.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



Video 1. Dan Lindsey (CIRA/CSU) says: “Check out the interesting gravity wave action likely in response to winds interacting w/ terrain.” Image credit: Himiwari-8 satellite loop courtesy @DanLindsey77.



Video 2. Bernadette Woods Placky (Climate Central) says: “Video of #Meranti battering Pintung, Taiwan from my friend Dr. ChiMing Peng.” Image credit: @BernadetteWoods, via @weatherrisk.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Euro turns TD 12 into a powerful system. 959mb

thanks doc
For some reason I always thought Camille had maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. at landfall. HURDAT must have done a reanalysis and trimmed it down. Thanks for the afternoon read gentlemen.
From the previous blog. Potential training event setting up for North Central Fl as storms feed into Julia. Could see some heavy rains this afternoon and evening.

"Thanks go to WU member Barefootontherocks for posting this image in the blog comments."

You know I love you guys... only...
Credit for posting this image goes to WU member 1900hurricane.
:)
Quoting 1. VAbeachhurricanes:

Euro turns TD 12 into a powerful system. 959mb




Big timing issue here. Just a slight adjustment north and it hits that weakness out to sea. Just a bit further south and it may head westward and threaten land.
Quoting 1. VAbeachhurricanes:

Euro turns TD 12 into a powerful system. 959mb




Powerful fish storm that is...
The first tropical cyclone report of the Atlantic season has been released. Alex's TCR is out. It was found to have formed 27 hours earlier than operationally believed (it formed at 18:00 UTC on January 12), meaning that the 2016 Atlantic started one day earlier than originally thought. No changes were made to Alex's peak intensity (still 85 mph/981 mbar), but Alex was found to have been slightly weaker (65 instead of 70 mph) at its Azores landfall. Link
Quoting 7. Hester122:



Powerful fish storm that is...
You mean a storm hitting Florida and then into the Gulf is a fish storm.
I know Euro showed TD12/Karl moving west with a sharp turn north out to sea and strengthening fast in a week but I believe this could be a threat to the islands and the U.S down the road, will have to keep an eye on it.
Please fix drop down selections on top banner of the blog.
There are some disconnects here and there that disallow the selection of the newest blog entry

Or, if this is a permanent change please let us know.
The Euro likes running storms through ridges.
can you see, the high pressure north, yur fish is getting OLD.
Looks like we should have Karl and Lisa together in the Atlantic in about 5 days. I expect things to stay active through mid October despite the possible unfavorable phase of the MJO in the coming weeks, there are other factors that will be supportive of development plus climatology will take over
Julia is our concern now, constant rainfall over areas of Georgia and SC theres no telling right now if it can continue to stay offshore and find pockets of more favorable conditions, she may get a little stronger.
Thanks for the update on Typhoon Meranti. Wow, both of those videos are quite impressive!
Meranti is making landfall just south of Xiamen, where the pressure dropped from 983 to 964 mb in the last hour. Winds were gusting to 87 mph from the NNW at the top of the hour (3 AM local time / 3 PM EDT].

<>a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaster s/comment.html?entrynum=3429
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ZSAM /2016/9/15/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Xiamen&req_s tatename=China&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb .wmo=WZSAM&MR=1" target="_blank">Weather history at Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport
21. 7544
Be fun to see if jules does the loop de loop back to fl
How about old 92L trying to make a comeback

TD12 = Frances-like track?
couldnt julia do loop and turn like some models show.
Quoting 15. Grothar:






Long time lurker and learner on this site.

Seeing this I couldn't help but think that 12L is getting that "shrimp" look.

Back to lurking. Thanks for the education.
Quoting 26. markot:

couldnt julia do loop and turn like some models show.
My guess is Julia will linger for a couple days, then out to sea...jmo
This is not an easy blog to find. I bet Keeper, Skyepony, etc are busy bees.

Getting some drizzle from Julia in ILM
Look for a westward trend in the 12z Euro ensembles for TD 12.
Almost the same as last year.
Quoting 27. CReed90:



Long time lurker and learner on this site.

Seeing this I couldn't help but think that 12L is getting that "shrimp" look.

Back to lurking. Thanks for the education.


I agree. You must be from south Louisiana!



Julia over water and has a much more organized center then just a few hours ago
Quoting 29. win1gamegiantsplease:

This is not an easy blog to find. I bet Keeper, Skyepony, etc are busy bees.

Getting some drizzle from Julia in ILM


Yep... had to do a bit of ziggin' & saggin' myself.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Look for a westward trend in the 12z Euro ensembles for TD 12.


I agree
Quoting 29. win1gamegiantsplease:

This is not an easy blog to find. I bet Keeper, Skyepony, etc are busy bees.

Getting some drizzle from Julia in ILM
everything seems to be slowly getting better and back too normal fingers cross
Meranti even unleashed the moon :-)

Youtube: Giant inflatable moon rolls through Chinese City

WATCH: Giant Moon Balloon Blown Away as Mid-Autumn Super Typhoons Arrive
By Bridget O'Donnell, September 14, 2016
Is there anything more hilarious or ironic than a giant moon-shaped balloon being blown away into oncoming traffic ahead of a holiday in China that is specifically centered around the moon? Answer: probably not.
That's exactly what happened earlier today in Fuzhou, Fujian province just as the first of two super typhoons expected to slam the country made landfall in China.
Quoting 37. barbamz:

Meranti even unleashed the moon :-)

Youtube: Giant inflatable moon rolls through Chinese City

WATCH: Giant Moon Balloon Blown Away as Mid-Autumn Super Typhoons Arrive
By Bridget O'Donnell, September 14, 2016
Is there anything more hilarious or ironic than a giant moon-shaped balloon being blown away into oncoming traffic ahead of a holiday in China that is specifically centered around the moon? Answer: probably not.
That's exactly what happened earlier today in Fuzhou, Fujian province just as the first of two super typhoons expected to slam the country made landfall in China.



Now that had to really freak some folks out!
if TD 12 be comes Karl

if ex 92L can be come Lisa

and the Africa wave Matthew



so far we have had 3 named storms IAN and Julia and we could soon have Karl


if the Africa wave and ex 92L gets named that would give us 5 named storms for SEP and we are still early even no we are now enter mid to late SEP i say we could get too 7 named storms wish means we could end SEP with Nicole and Otto but that is only if we get Lisa from the Africa wave and Matthew from ex 92L
Nobody's talking about the swirlyness in the central Gulf. (NHC gives it 10%.)

So where did it originate?
Quoting 32. beell:



I agree. You must be from south Louisiana!






Nope, North Texas. One of the reasons I lurk here is to check Gulf Coast weather. I am planning a fishing trip to Port Aransas the last week of Sept. Fly fishing in a kayak while a TS is blowing in is no fun.
Julia is moving NE faster than expected from my point of view. I don't see evidence of it lingering. The storms on its E and NE side will pass beyond Charleston in a few hours.
Quoting 41. bappit:

Nobody's talking about the swirlyness in the central Gulf. (NHC gives it 10%.)

So where did it originate?
X92L came through the FL keys a couple days ago and was ripped apart by windshear.
Quoting 43. JParsons:

Julia is moving NE faster than expected from my point of view. I don't see evidence of it lingering. The storms on its E and NE side will pass beyond Charleston in a few hours.


She's not going anywhere.
Quoting 137. Grothar:

It's very bad if this blog is down that long. How will the NHC know what is going on?


This comment made my day lol :)
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
0 hurricanes in Atlantic since 9/2. 9/3-9/14 has had 0 hurricanes in Atlantic 3 times since 1990 (1992,1994 & 2015)
Quoting 1. VAbeachhurricanes:

Euro turns TD 12 into a powerful system. 959mb




Models are not bored to produce fishes :\
we have too keep a eye on this area one area N the other in the midded of the gulf



not sure what the NHC is seeing but its under 5kt of shear


Quoting 15. Grothar:






Can't they just start at 10N instead of 17 :\
Okay blog is acting funny again..The link sent me back to the old blog from two days ago.What type of shiz is that?
Quoting 31. Gearsts:

Almost the same as last year.



I'm deeply depressed when I see this...
Looks like a "Karl" to me...
Quoting 50. thetwilightzone:

we have too keep a eye on this area one area N the other in the midded of the gulf



not sure what the NHC is seeing but its under 5kt of shear





This can go from 10% to a Tropical Storm just like Julia did, must keep an eye on it
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

Okay blog is acting funny again..The link sent me back to the old blog from two days ago.What type of shiz is that?


Servers crapped the canoe.

They need new webmasters. The ones they currently have, in most work environments, would have been out on their asses long ago.
Quoting 40. thetwilightzone:



I hope ex-92L doesn't develop into anything stronger than a TD... Since TD 12L is likely to become Karl, and the next wave is likely to become Lisa... "Matthew" sounds like it should be a strong hurricane affecting some parts of America. Perhaps not as strongly as "Mitch" that was replaced by "Matthew".
Quoting 41. bappit:

Nobody's talking about the swirlyness in the central Gulf. (NHC gives it 10%.)

So where did it originate?


We discussed it on the old bog this morning and I declared a Blobcon 1, before we were interrupted, I mean, they posted a new blog.
Malakas (WPac) :
Quoting 41. bappit:

Nobody's talking about the swirlyness in the central Gulf. (NHC gives it 10%.)

So where did it originate?


Pat's been highlighting it for days...though he doesn't talk much LOL, but posting sat, images etc
Quoting 32. beell:
agree. You must be from south Louisiana!
That "shrimp look" phrase is common because they taste so good. People see that on a satellite picture and enter Bubba mode.
Quoting 59. Grothar:
We discussed it on the old bog this morning and I declared a Blobcon 1, before we were interrupted, I mean, they posted a new blog.
Thank goodness. Would be highly unusual for something like that to slip past!

Meranti's landfall in China (I think the island of Itbayat is too small to be regarded as a landfall in a meteorogical sense? It was more a thyphoonfall of a small land ... )
Best wishes to the folks in China!
Quoting 59. Grothar:




We discussed it on the old bog this morning and I declared a Blobcon 1, before we were interrupted, I mean, they posted a new blog.


Still watchin'





What was wrong with the blog this morning? For me it didn't update the entire morning and some of the afternoon earlier.
Quoting 48. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
0 hurricanes in Atlantic since 9/2. 9/3-9/14 has had 0 hurricanes in Atlantic 3 times since 1990 (1992,1994 & 2015)


Omg we need hurricanes
Quoting 68. CaribBoy:



Omg we need hurricanes
More things pointing to the end of the active era.
Quoting 66. WeatherkidJoe2323:

What was wrong with the blog this morning? For me it didn't update the entire morning and some of the afternoon earlier.


Yes, it's been a long day of blog issues.
I understand Julia got named over land but I really can't believe and what bothers me is that the Louisiana no name that caused massive flooding worse then many Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, had an organized circulation was not named at all. Unreal and not right if you ask me. IMO
New Orleans TDRW

225 nm range

Quoting 64. barbamz:


Meranti's landfall in China (I think the island of Itbayat is too small to be regarded as a landfall in a meteorogical sense? It was more a thyphoonfall of a small land ... )
Best wishes to the folks in China!


Topographically... Looks like a bad place to come ashore. It's really going to stack water up in that bay.
Quoting 66. WeatherkidJoe2323:

What was wrong with the blog this morning? For me it didn't update the entire morning and some of the afternoon earlier.


They were hacked by the NHC, who were annoyed with WU members for tweeting and emailing them that 93L was a TD at least, and they then had to upgrade it to TS Julia ;)



Jk, Doc said there were disk problems, so maybe had a computer or server down or such
Quoting 66. WeatherkidJoe2323:

What was wrong with the blog this morning? For me it didn't update the entire morning and some of the afternoon earlier.


Read the entry above,they can be really informative.


;-)
Quoting 66. WeatherkidJoe2323:

What was wrong with the blog this morning? For me it didn't update the entire morning and some of the afternoon earlier.

From the blog entry:
Apologies for the site issues and lack of blog access this morning; we had a disk issue that was causing us trouble.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
TD 12 reminds me some of Ophelia 2011.
80. IDTH
Wow already have TD12, where have I been? If this one is any similar to the Euro's track, it could be a dangerous one. Plenty of time to watch it though. It may not be an I storm, but it's got the feel of one.
Quoting 77. Patrap:



Read the entry above,they can be really informative.


;-)


Read everything but that last little part sorry lol
Julia is one to watch, she's over the warm gulf stream and is predicted to just stall there. If sheer weakens we could see some strengthening.
Is there a reason there are no TS warnings out for Julia?
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2 hours ago

12Z ECMWF suggests #Julia could still be near South Carolina coast on Sunday. Prolonged heavy rain a concern.

86. IDTH
Looks like it came ashore at Port Xiamen... Couldn't find the bays name in English.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016

The depression has not become better organized since the last
advisory, with the most concentrated convection now in a cluster
just west of the estimated center position. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from SAB.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then
westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward
speed after 36-48 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The new
forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous
track based on a slight northward shift in the track guidance.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so. After
that, the cyclone will encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear
caused by a developing upper-level trough near and north of the
cyclone. This, combined with passage over sea-surface temperatures
of about 26C-27C, should lead to weakening, and the intensity
forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36
hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models
continue to diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with
the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable ridge pattern near
the cyclone, whereas the GFS has an upper-level trough close by.
Based on these conflicting models, the forecast leans toward the
ECMWF/UKMET scenario and shows some re-intensification by 120 hours.
An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates into a broad
low pressure area or tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall,
the intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance in
best agreement with the LGEM.

Gusty winds remain possible over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight,
whereas locally heavy rains will remain possible through Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.9N 28.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.0N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 18.1N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Wow what a cone lol

My sister lives in Xiamen. They believe that Taiwan protects them from Typhoons. They got one hell of a surprise. When I called her yesterday to tell her to get some drinking water stored up she was like, what?
Quoting 65. hurricanehanna:



Which general direction do you suppose this blob will end up floating based upon current steering patterns?
Quoting 91. IkeMadeLawyer:



Which general direction do you suppose this blob will end up floating based upon current steering patterns?


I can only make an educated guess...looks like it will float into TX or even Mexico. Hopefully without any development.
Quoting 84. all4hurricanes:

Is there a reason there are no TS warnings out for Julia?



Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

AMZ350-352-354-374-151215-
/O.CON.KCHS.TR.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
416 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS CAN PRODUCE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KT
AND DANGEROUS SEAS.

&&

$$
94. 7544
Quoting 89. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Wow what a cone lol




maybe it will do the loop de loop back to fl
Good night with a last glimpse of the probably subtropical storm which is right now forming in the Bay of Biscay off France, a rather uncommon occurrence. Hard to find any articles about the phenomenon, apart from Estofex which I've quoted in the last blog and a detailed text in French from Keraunos with a lot of maps. Main development of "Stephanie" (named by the Germans) will be tonight and tomorrow until landfall.


Current IR loop showing that the circulation tries to wrap up convection . Source for updates.

Sea surface temperatures in this quite northern part of the Atlantic are above normal right now after the prolonged summer heat. Although still rather low for a sort of tropical development, these kind of storms are not that dependent of a certain threshold.


SST anomalies (source WU).


GFS forecast of gusts tomorrow afternoon in the Gulf of Biscay. You see the "eye".

Model Euro4 (provided by UKMET) shows a closed circulation tomorrow morning and a warm core of the system.

Current airmasses.

Regardless of the subtropical development some folks in southern France, northern Italy and even in the UK get a lot of rain and strong winds from "Stephanie".
Thanks for your patience! Just imagine this system off the eastern coast of the US ... :-)
Blog is still not working properly for me?
98. 7544
Quoting 89. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Wow what a cone lol




maybe it will do a loop de loop
Quoting 89. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Wow what a cone lol




Reminds me of Debby
What would be the earliest date that TD12 would hit CONUS if it were to do so? Estimate of course. 10 days out?
.
Test
Another blog hole?
Quoting 69. Gearsts:

More things pointing to the end of the active era.


Not really. Every season is different.
TEST....We need to designate a meeting place in case this wonderful IBM blog freezes up again for 12 hours....everyone can come to my FB page if you want....if interested let me know
107. beell
duplicate waste of server resources.
Quoting 84. all4hurricanes:

Is there a reason there are no TS warnings out for Julia?



sustained winds are likely to be only TD force with a landfalling TS this weak
109. beell
Quoting 41. bappit:

Nobody's talking about the swirlyness in the central Gulf. (NHC gives it 10%.)

So where did it originate?


You could probably ask 5 different people and get 7 different answers.

Lack of moisture in the gulf has not provided much in the way of visual clues over the past few days-but if you step back to the GFS runs from the 10th or 11th, some modeled vorticity (700 & 850 mb) from 92L remains and tracks towards the northwest. There have also been a couple weak waves in the easterly flow along the ridge mixed in there as well.

The link, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com, begins at the analysis hr of the 09/10 18Z GFS 850 mb vorticity product-with 92L just off the north shore of western Cuba- and is present in varying degrees in subsequent runs.

Link
Quoting 69. Gearsts:

More things pointing to the end of the active era.


Ye, it seems that global warming is masking the onset of a -AMO. The global SST comparison you posted shows it quite nicely.
is the blog down again or is it just horrifically inactive?
Quoting 57. nash36:



Servers crapped the canoe.

They need new webmasters. The ones they currently have, in most work environments, would have been out on their asses long ago.

I agree with you. Maybe this blog isn't a priority -- it's obvious, unfortunately.
i followed hurricanes closely in the 60 to now. is now an end to an active era? not this yr end to the era you 'll know might get 3-5 storms the whole yr. with not many more invest.
18z is running and let me guess?
Quoting 111. masiello3:

is the blog down again or is it just horrifically inactive?
The blog has crashed once again.My goodness,and you would think joining IMB would make it 10x better when it has gotten 20x worse.I think they're trying to get rid of the blog.
Hey Carib, looks like we are fresh out of luck this season when it comes to rain. You may have a higher possibility than I do since all of these systems seem to be coming off above 15N.

This has been a interesting season thus far. Lots of half dead systems, one beautiful hurricane (I know there were 4 but...) and a whole heap of endless invest tracking... Not sure it gets more interesting and boring all in one go. This is the 2016 Atlantic Conundrum season.
117. IDTH
Quoting 114. CaribBoy:

18z is running and let me guess?


Hope you are up for a spicy fish dinner tonight...
Quoting 106. K8eCane:

TEST....We need to designate a meeting place in case this wonderful IBM blog freezes up again for 12 hours....everyone can come to my FB page if you want....if interested let me know


Never been on FB... We could meet in Springfield... AKA "The Bunker"... Lots of familiar faces from the old WU days there.
Quoting 99. Articuno:



Reminds me of Debby


Debby


VS

Julia


Interesting similarity.
Quoting 109. beell:
You could probably ask 5 different people and get 7 different answers.
92L seemed like the most likely suspect. I learned with Humberto, 2007 not to write off an invest after it was declassified. Assuming that is X92L, it did manage to gain some latitude, like 93L. Seems like the waves coming across tend to eventually tilt more east west and slow down considerably. That is, if they don't do something else!
got 6" from julia and still counting e.cen fl.
KRAL Riverside Municipal Airport

Another Quickie heatwave...
lol look at what the CMC does with Julia. 979 mbar hurricane.
ex 92 is like a 'tick bite' that wont get better' beware
Quoting 124. PedleyCA:

KRAL Riverside Municipal Airport

Another Quickie heatwave...


80 At mI casa
128. vis0
image host
aniGIF was to be posted on intermediate blog but then this one popped up, luckily there are 2 very good writers -Dr. Masters & Mr. Henson so even blogbytes that are short lived are very informative(use Jackie Mason like voice ) (have no comment icons, MY FAULT( tinkering with connection settings),  cannot format as wished)

MEANWHILE, Unexpected (heavy where to go north of city) heavy rains here in zip1016 NYc some thunder...and the TS forming as it headed Northward over land and the moire cooler air heading southward from Canada towards the EXTREME NE USofA cooler than expected and even Gaston LLC separating (yesterday not the shear look closely as before shearing LLC jogged dramatically WNW)  as if wanting to head NW while shearing was at 25-30mph shearing off GASTONs  tops ENE. All this almost as if something magical was attracting spins towards the NY/NJ area weird.  NYc  Storms slowly ending by 625PM

Also notice WxU had 2 or 3 near SE of USofA tropical thingies during late July-August yet WxU did not crash...maybe Russia was too busy trying to break into Olympic compu'rs (as with drug testing data) and did not bother toying with WxU, state dept i would follow the warm trail...WxU's logo changed to a dancing bear
September has been pretty good so far. Could and probably should be a lot hotter..........Euro said maybe some tropical moisture coming north to Soo Cal.......we shall see if it changes it's mind to the GFS thinking.
Quoting 124. PedleyCA:

KRAL Riverside Municipal Airport

Another Quickie heatwave...


I like quickies!
Quoting 119. ChillinInTheKeys:



Never been on FB... We could meet in Springfield... AKA "The Bunker"... Lots of familiar faces from the old WU days there.


How do you get there?
Quoting 122. beell:

How to make a tissue paper centerpiece


Thank you Martha... ;)
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

The blog has crashed once again.My goodness,and you would think joining IMB would make it 10x better when it has gotten 20x worse.I think they're trying to get rid of the blog.
Tell me about it.
Quoting 131. K8eCane:



How do you get there?


If I told you I'd have to... Well, you know... Loose lips sink ships!
Maybe it's a good thing the site goes down once in a while.
Well my address is not on my FB page so if anyone wants to friend me its kathy hewett worrell. I have nothing to hide and did not delete 33,000 emails that were marked with (c).I might be too trusting but so be it.
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Officially from a station within 1/4 mile of me Todays High 75 and Low was 43 Brrrrrrrrrrr. My Unofficial thermometer says 80.
Quoting 137. K8eCane:

Well my address is not on my FB page so if anyone wants to friend me its kathy hewett worrell. I have nothing to hide and did not delete 33,000 emails that were marked with (c).I might be too trusting but so be it.


K8e checks her WU mail now...
Quoting 136. bappit:

Maybe it's a good thing the site goes down once in a while.


Its unacceptable.....
Quoting 120. 62901IL:



Debby


VS

Julia


Interesting similarity.


could easily head back into the gulf
Quoting 141. Hester122:
could easily head back into the gulf
Surely, you jest.
Despite moving over water, Julia appears to be getting less organized. Convection getting sheared off further to the east. Not a surprise, but just ironic how it tracks over thousands of miles of ocean, finally forms when it hits Florida, then moves back over water and weakens.

Whats wrong on the GFS between 132h and 204h :\\ The moisture just doesn't want to enter the Lesser Antilles!!
145. beell
Quoting 133. ChillinInTheKeys:



Thank you Martha... ;)


Martha also reminds you to change the air in your tires every three months to keep them smelling fresh. Why not now while you're waiting for a comment to post? I would also suggest adding just a touch of "Pumpkin Spice" with the new air just to get you in the mood. Autumn is right around the corner, you know!
146. elioe
Quoting 106. K8eCane:

TEST....We need to designate a meeting place in case this wonderful IBM blog freezes up again for 12 hours....everyone can come to my FB page if you want....if interested let me know


Some kind of Facebook group for WU commentators would be nice. Not only to be a backup for "broken blog" situations, but a backup communication channel for other situations... for example, it is often seen here that WU members are worried about other members that have had severe weather coming their way, if they don't show up soon on the blog...
Quoting 118. LemieT:



Hope you are up for a spicy fish dinner tonight...


Very light dinner tonight lol
Quoting 144. CaribBoy:

Whats wrong on the GFS between 132h and 204h :\\ The moisture just doesn't want to enter the Lesser Antilles!!


The transition to a -AMO? If you don't mind me asking, were you around for the inactive/-AMO in the 70s/80s? It would be interesting to see if during that period the pattern was the same as the last few years on your island/for the Caribbean in general.
150. SLU
Quoting 144. CaribBoy:

Whats wrong on the GFS between 132h and 204h :\\ The moisture just doesn't want to enter the Lesser Antilles!!


Certainly not at 324hrs. ;)

Quoting 150. SLU:



Certainly not at 324hrs. ;)




Where is the trough when I need it xD
Quoting 150. SLU:



Certainly not at 324hrs. ;)


That still would be too far south for CaribBoy for the much needed rains.
(Sees username and join date.Puts on Special list).I guess I'm going to hell then.
See, some things are worse than having the site go down.
Quoting 149. Envoirment:



The transition to a -AMO? If you don't mind me asking, were you around for the inactive/-AMO in the 70s/80s? It would be interesting to see if during that period the pattern was the same as the last few years on your island/for the Caribbean in general.


I wasn't there or still too young, so I can't really tell BUT people say that SAL outbreaks were less significant.

Very few storms (1979 Frederic, 1989 Hugo) affected the N Leewards from the 70s to mid 90s... but the lack of rain wasn't necessarily permanent.
Quoting 154. washingtonian115:

(Sees username and join join date.Puts on Special list).I guess I'm going to hell then.


Me too Wash
So... is it possible this will turn into a hurricane and hit SC coastline? We had major flooding here last October... praying this stays AWAY.
Quoting 150. SLU:



Certainly not at 324hrs. ;)




Ivan 2.0? I've seen this at least 3 times this season. Not going to verify...
161. MahFL
Quoting 85. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2 hours ago

12Z ECMWF suggests #Julia could still be near South Carolina coast on Sunday. Prolonged heavy rain a concern.




Most of the rain is in the Atlantic Ocean...
162. elioe
Matthew, is it you?

Quoting 159. Trumpisboss:

Put a cork in it
Quoting 156. CaribBoy:



I wasn't there or still too young, so I can't really tell BUT people say that SAL outbreaks were less significant.

Very few storms (1979 Frederic, 1989 Hugo) affected the N Leewards from the 70s to mid 90s... but the lack of rain wasn't necessarily permanent.


Based on what my parents and grandparents have told me, (and I am in my early 30s) this lack of rainy weather for such a long stretch is very strange. That and the excess heat... We are accustomed to good rainfall in the period Aug-Oct... So far not much. For those who don't know, I am in Barbados, a few hundred miles south of CaribBoy.
Quoting 158. kimSCbeaches:
So... is it possible this will turn into a hurricane and hit SC coastline? We had major flooding here last October... praying this stays AWAY.
Looking at what the shear is doing (#148) I'd say no, but check with your local weather service [NWS] for how the storm will affect you.
Quoting 157. K8eCane:



Me too Wash


Well... After being on here over 8 years, just found out that WU mail is censored... Real bummer!!!
Hope it worked for you K8e & Terri!
Keep, Sky... What's up with that?
Thanks... Chillin'
Quoting 158. kimSCbeaches:

So... is it possible this will turn into a hurricane and hit SC coastline? We had major flooding here last October... praying this stays AWAY.


TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

The storm continues to have an asymmetric cloud pattern, with
little deep convection over the western and southern portions of
the circulation. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt
based on WSR-88D Doppler velocity data. Since the system is
expected to be over water for the next couple of days, some
strengthening is now possible. However the vertical shear, which
is currently approaching 20 kt, is forecast by the dynamical models
to increase to near 30 kt in 48 hours. This strong shear should
limit significant intensification, as indicated in the latest
official forecast. The NHC forecast is also very close to
the latest intensity model consensu
I finally figure out what is going on with all of these storms... They are making the ATL wet again. Since it has been such a desert these last few years, it really needs the rain more than any land areas.

Perhaps next year it may be a bit more normal with all that wet ground in the MDR. Might even get a little brown ocean effect going south of 15N. :-}
Quoting 105. Hurricanes101:



Not really. Every season is different.
Nice and informative post there.
Is like a shield above CaribBoy house and PR.
.
Quoting 169. Gearsts:

Nice and informative post there.


Thought you would like it. Fact is that it is true. The "Active" period, the 1995, 2005 and 2008 seasons are not normal. The 80s were full of struggling systems and dorment seasons. We are ahead in terms of numbers and now have 3 systems that are being tracked with models forecasting another one.

People were whining about wanting a beautiful major hurricane, we got that. Apparently that is not enough. We had a rapidly intensifying hurricane hit the US, but apparently that is not enough. We have had 10 named storms, are only a day or two away from 11 and are still well ahead in terms of named storms. 10-4-1 is not at all inactive, but apparently it is not enough.

Many seasons in the early 1900s were quiet, obviously with a few exceptions. Keep in mind we only have reliable data that goes back to 1851, with a few accounts from ships, historians, and meteorologists previous to that year, such as the Great Hurricane of 1780. But I have no doubt, periods of quietness like we have seen the past few seasons have occurred in the past. Just like active periods in the early 2000s have occurred. It may be new to us because we inhabit this planet now, but if our ancestors could speak from the dead they would tell us see Caleb this is nothing new, I remember back in the 1700s working as a merchant how tranquil the shipping lanes were it was like smooth sailing.
Quoting 142. bappit:
Surely, you jest.
What!!! Hester the Jester hangs out at WU?
Quoting 173. Hurricanes101:



Thought you would like it. Fact is that it is true. The "Active" period, the 1995, 2005 and 2008 seasons are not normal. The 80s were full of struggling systems and dorment seasons. We are ahead in terms of numbers and now have 3 systems that are being tracked with models forecasting another one.

People were whining about wanting a beautiful major hurricane, we got that. Apparently that is not enough. We had a rapidly intensifying hurricane hit the US, but apparently that is not enough. We have had 10 named storms, are only a day or two away from 11 and are still well ahead in terms of named storms. 10-4-1 is not at all inactive, but apparently it is not enough.


And with all of that the ACE for the Atlantic ocean is still below average. Is not all about the numbers of named storms, most storms have been shear and dry mess and only looking like a TC on the far north Atlantic. Most of the rain for the islands come from TC every year but the last 5 seasons we have finish with a big deficit. When talking about TC activity over the Atlantic we have to tell the whole story not just how many names we can get from a list.
Quoting 178. Gearsts:

And with all of that the ACE for the Atlantic ocean is still below average. Is not all about the numbers of named storms, most storms have been shear and dry mess and only looking like a TC on the far north Atlantic. Most of the rain for the islands come from TC every year but the last 5 seasons we have finish with a big deficit. When talking about TC activity over the Atlantic we have to tell the whole story not just how many names we can get from a list.


Its also not all about ACE, it is about real life impacts. Belize impacted by Earl, Louisiana impacted by Noname storm, Florida impacted by Hermine. In fact 10 of the 12 storms have impacted some land area and 6 of them have caused fatalities and that does not even factor in the fatalities due to the Louisiana flooding.

THAT is what really matters.
Most of the storms this year have been short lived too.
Quoting 179. Hurricanes101:



Its also not all about ACE, it is about real life impacts. Belize impacted by Earl, Louisiana impacted by Noname storm, Florida impacted by Hermine.

THAT is what really matters, not the numbers.
But i'm talking about the overall MDR activity and strength of TC. The whole Atlantic is sick and you can't deny that.
Acme, Wa update, light frost in the cold corner of my field mornings of the 12-13th. No damage in the garden thankfully. Days have been perfect sunny highs of 72°. The little oak trees that I started from acorns are showing nice color, fall is here!

Quoting 180. washingtonian115:

Most of the storms this year have been short lived too.


Define short-lived. Bonnie was around for 8 days, Earl for 5, Fiona for 7, Gaston for 12 and Hermine for 7. Jury is still out on Ian, Julia and TD 12

Quoting 181. Gearsts:

But i'm talking about the overall MDR activity and strength of TC. The whole Atlantic is sick and you can't deny that.


Season is not over yet though
Quoting 179. Hurricanes101:



Its also not all about ACE, it is about real life impacts. Belize impacted by Earl, Louisiana impacted by Noname storm, Florida impacted by Hermine. In fact 10 of the 12 storms have impacted some land area and 6 of them have caused fatalities and that does not even factor in the fatalities due to the Louisiana flooding.

THAT is what really matters.

Fully agree. I'm still not convinced we are in an "inactive era" yet. The Atlantic already has 10 named storms this year - and we could get our 11th tonight or tomorrow. Just a couple of decent storms would put us above the seasonal average. The SST pattern right now is not the one you typically see with a true -AMO pattern. However, there has been a distinct lack of TCs in recent seasons in the western MDR/eastern Caribbean area, and users from that area are really noticing it. The ACE count is only slightly below average, not well below average, and a couple decent storms would quickly turn that around. This season is not nearly as "dead" as so many users on here are making it out to be, 10-4-1 isn't inactive at all in my opinion for September 14.
Quoting 185. Hurricanes101:



Season is not over yet though
True that.
Quoting 162. elioe:

Matthew, is it you?


Maybe Central America. Havent chase a big storm since ever. The last good season for me was 2008, many will say 2010 but most storm that affect me where of ts status.
Quoting 148. GeoffreyWPB:



I don't know what I see but is that an eye like structure? It at least resembles one.
Quoting 171. Gearsts:

Is like a shield above CaribBoy house and PR.



A shield, good description.
Blog been acting like this recently.
Nj had a powerful thunderstorm. It began with hail, then winds for 5 minutes up to 40 mph, then at least 0.10 inches of rain and that was a lot.
Quoting 178. Gearsts:

And with all of that the ACE for the Atlantic ocean is still below average. Is not all about the numbers of named storms, most storms have been shear and dry mess and only looking like a TC on the far north Atlantic. Most of the rain for the islands come from TC every year but the last 5 seasons we have finish with a big deficit. When talking about TC activity over the Atlantic we have to tell the whole story not just how many names we can get from a list.
If I may add, it's not just TC, but TW and I have noticed there have been a lack of those this season traversing through the Caribbean and the ones that do manage to hold together before becoming sheared into TUTTs and ULLs come through dry or with very little precipitation. It's almost as though the ITCZ has lifted north of 15N to 20N along the west African coast and further west it's being suppressed south by a stronger Azores High and its position being further south? It's a great observation made by LemieT and follows the moisture trail on the output by the GFS. Also, the shape of the high is important if the flank is weaker on the east side and you have mid-latitude systems running into Europe and eroding it, it will allow for TW to follow north into that weakness originally, but it moves away from it and bumps up along the southern flank of the high it resumes west and even wsw, problem there is the sst are cooler, there is a presence of dry, dusty, Saharan air, and there is a higher likelihood of ULLs breaking off from departing troughs imposing wind shear. That is not your typical MDR. However, if that is becoming the new MDR, it may take a few years to establish itself. Reason, I say this is if indeed a new cycle and reversal of the oscillations and currents are taking place then that will also have emphasis on your synoptic, large scale pressure patterns. Also, there will be the added effects of climate change and the melting of the Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheets. How much of an effect and the consequences it will have, especially to tropical regions like the Caribbean remains to be seen. We may see it sooner than later I'm afraid. This is a great time to study climatology and things like long term droughts, floods, and its economic and agricultural impacts.
AL, 11, 2016091500, , BEST, 0, 320N, 800W, 35, 1009, TS
We have had as many tropical cyclones in the Atlantic as all of last season.
201. vis0

Quoting 194. Grothar:




The problem is not the A to Z (unless your near the "Z" aka Bahamas) but that some members get upset if they see the storm enter that zzz stage.  Over the past few years we seen the normal amount (if i may use) Blobs its that for some reason one thing or another...

(i can think of 14 as SAL, bad shear, trough, other TD interaction (as in too close to each other), sinking "air", etc etc.

...keeps popping up causing TW to become discomblobbeled.  Why in part i think the warmer atmosphere is causing 24% to 35% of this unaccustomed look and that percentage will rise as time goes by an mankind does little to help slow down this Too fast warming.
YET lets see if over the next 5 years we see at least 2.5 to 3.5  years where seemingly all of sudden EVEN with warming temperatures symmetrical TS blossom in the ATL.
 
i hope they at worst skimmed 700 miles (no closer) off the coast and only needed showers would fall to keep gardens green but history shows humanity that nature is unconditional in maintaining the needed balance of her planet and at times that brings tragic consequences that CAN ONLY BE LOWERED BY practicing  emergency drills checking ones emergency list EVERY MONTH.  
 
So lets observe and learn, if we ignore nature, nature appears like your worst enemy if one learns from nature no better teacher (except for my History teacher Mr. Petrocelli) .can be found.
As with no name and Hermine, the less hostile conditions reside close to the CONUS. Could it be the new atmospheric dynamics between a warming polar region and the already warm MDR have created more shear, dry air and Saharan dust? Will the MDR move northward and will Europe see more landfalling hurricanes? Normally you would see a Gaston at 15-20N, yet our only major so far was closer to 30N. 2016 definitely an odd duck so far.

Quoting 143. MAweatherboy1:

Despite moving over water, Julia appears to be getting less organized. Convection getting sheared off further to the east. Not a surprise, but just ironic how it tracks over thousands of miles of ocean, finally forms when it hits Florida, then moves back over water and weakens.


Looks like it's been an interesting day blog wise and tropics wise ...

We got the tail feathers of future Julia yesterday, but today was a lot clearer. I took only a quick look at the sat imagery and thought idly ... that looks quite like a TD .... but never got back to discover that it had been named.

Re Meranti ... hope the surge in S China doesn't cause too much damage.... but glad it has lost strength before final landfall.

Is this the latest blog ?
Hey I remember that!!!! Screens arn't color though...

In fact I still have one on the Attic.



Quoting 193. Climate175:

Blog been acting like this recently.
Quoting 202. GeoffreyWPB:




From CNN,

Hong Kong (CNN)Typhoon Meranti struck China's mainland after pounding Taiwan, making landfall early Thursday near Xiamen in Fujian Province, according to CNN meteorologists.
The powerful storm first raked southern Taiwan, bringing winds of up to 230 mph (370 kilometers per hour) -- faster than a Formula One race car -- at one point and torrential rains.

Meranti is the strongest typhoon since Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Philippines in 2013.
When it made landfall over mainland China, the storm's maximum sustained winds were 145 mph (230 kph) with gusts of up to 175 mph (280 kph).
Quoting 204. HaoleboySurfEC:

As with no name and Hermine, the less hostile conditions reside close to the CONUS. Could it be the new atmospheric dynamics between a warming polar region and the already warm MDR have created more shear, dry air and Saharan dust? Will the MDR move northward and will Europe see more landfalling hurricanes? Normally you would see a Gaston at 15-20N, yet our only major so far was closer to 30N. 2016 definitely an odd duck so far.


This has been the trend the last 5 or so years... storms attaining their peak or a secondary peak as they or after they transverse 30N ....

I've been observing, and thinking that N Florida, GA, SC, NC look to be under the gun with the current steering. One hopes everything that does pop up and head across the neck of Florida is as much a sheared, discombobulated mess as the storms we've seen so far. A major storm of, say, Wilma's ilk with a track from south of Tallahassee across to Jacksonville, and then scooting along over the Gulf Stream, could be .... well ... disruptive.
Quoting 209. ProgressivePulse:

From CNN,

Hong Kong (CNN)Typhoon Meranti struck China's mainland after pounding Taiwan, making landfall early Thursday near Xiamen in Fujian Province, according to CNN meteorologists.
The powerful storm first raked southern Taiwan, bringing winds of up to 230 mph (370 kilometers per hour) -- faster than a Formula One race car -- at one point and torrential rains.

Meranti is the strongest typhoon since Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Philippines in 2013.
When it made landfall over mainland China, the storm's maximum sustained winds were 145 mph (230 kph) with gusts of up to 175 mph (280 kph).
230 mph? is that accurate?
Quite a stark difference in reports with Meranti. Sigh....
Quoting 211. BahaHurican:

230 mph? is that accurate?


I don't know Baha, it's a headline on CNN. What is right?
Quoting 213. ProgressivePulse:



I don't know Baha, it's a headline on CNN. What is right?

Sounds bogus to me .... Navy website was showing 90kt sustained at landfall on mainland China ....

Doc and Dok were saying 195 mph winds ... not sure where CNN is getting their numbers.
Quoting 162. elioe:

Matthew, is it you?




Not at all saying this exact scenario will verify, but I've mentioned before that it feels like the waters near Certral America will be the ones to break the 9 year gap between cat 5 storms in the Atlantic basin.
Maybe they measured a gust up on one of the quite high mountains. Makes a good headline.

Edit: as the official blog points out above, the mountains of Taiwan disrupted the storm quite a bit. Can't go by the landfall intensity on the mainland to determine the strength as it reached Taiwan.


Hmmph.
A track sort of like Julia's maybe. Think of this one being a wave instead of a hurricane at first.



Quoting 214. BahaHurican:

Sounds bogus to me .... Navy website was showing 90kt sustained at landfall on mainland China ....

Doc and Dok were saying 195 mph winds ... not sure where CNN is getting their numbers.
Does anyone know where CNN gets it's news?
Quoting 214. BahaHurican:

Sounds bogus to me .... Navy website was showing 90kt sustained at landfall on mainland China ....

Doc and Dok were saying 195 mph winds ... not sure where CNN is getting their numbers.


I think that may have been a gust report, not sustained.
Good evening

We are now just past the peak of the season. We transitioned to less active hurricane seasons about 3 or 4 years ago.
This year confirms that.

October will be the last gasp until 2017. September may have one more system of note but I am not pinning my expectations on that.
Quoting 214. BahaHurican:

Sounds bogus to me .... Navy website was showing 90kt sustained at landfall on mainland China ....

Doc and Dok were saying 195 mph winds ... not sure where CNN is getting their numbers.


got 85-90 knots from China Meteorological Administration (2 min sustained winds)

** WTPQ20 BABJ 142100 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MERANTI 1614 (1614) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC
00HR 24.8N 117.9E 950HPA 45M/S

** WTPQ20 BABJ 142200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MERANTI 1614 (1614) INITIAL TIME 142200 UTC
00HR 24.9N 117.8E 955HPA 42M/S

------------

80 knots (10 min) from Japan Meteorological Agency at 7:00 AM JST (2200UTC)


---
CNN don't know what they're reporting or if the data is current, it seems
Quoting 179. Hurricanes101:



Its also not all about ACE, it is about real life impacts. Belize impacted by Earl, Louisiana impacted by Noname storm, Florida impacted by Hermine. In fact 10 of the 12 storms have impacted some land area and 6 of them have caused fatalities and that does not even factor in the fatalities due to the Louisiana flooding.

THAT is what really matters.
And don't forget minimal tropical storm Alison, and non-major storms Ike and Sandy. The entire concept of no major hurricane strikes since Wilma needs serious reconsideration. The water tends to be the biggest risk and that needs recalibration, IMO.
Note the circular pattern slowly organizing tonight.



Lesser Antilles in play?

Everyday, we have the comments from the famous cariboy, but my dear, when are we going to discover who is the famous cariboy, your island, your cistern...lolll
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
745 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 14 2016

..sounding discussion...
Moisture is still above average in the sounding this evening with
precipitable water at 2.1 inches. Instability was back up a bit today with mixed
layer cape at 1200 j/kg, though lack of forcing kept precip
coverage down. The weak low pressure is well off shore to the
south. Winds are light and easterly to 600 mb then variable aloft.

Krautmann

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 438 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 14 2016/

Short term...

An area of weak low pressure over the west central Gulf of Mexico
is expected to move west towards the Lower Texas coast Thursday
into Thursday night. High pressure at various levels of the
atmosphere will be mostly just north to east of the forecast area,
and a series of inverted troughs will rotate around the high
pressure over the western Gulf Coast region. This pattern will
generally advect or maintain high precipitable water values of 2
to 2.25" over the forecast area Thursday into the weekend. Rain
chances are expected gradually rise again with daytime pop 30-40%
Thursday, 40-60% Friday and 50-60% Saturday. Temperatures are also
expected to be slightly above normal for lows and highs, but rain-
cooled at times during the day.

Long term...

More moist pattern is expected to continue into early next week as
a weakness in the larger scale ridging should persist over or near
our region. After Monday, the models split with the GFS bringing
drier air and lower rain chances into the region while the European model (ecmwf)
maintains the status-quo. Have leaned towards the wetter European model (ecmwf)
solution for this forecast package.
Quoting 164. LemieT:



Based on what my parents and grandparents have told me, (and I am in my early 30s) this lack of rainy weather for such a long stretch is very strange. That and the excess heat... We are accustomed to good rainfall in the period Aug-Oct... So far not much. For those who don't know, I am in Barbados, a few hundred miles south of CaribBoy.


September 2012, 2013, and 2015 had less than 1" of rain (average is 4-5").

2013, 2014, 2015 all had yearly totals below normal.

2015 broke all times heat AND drought record!

Since 2008, we were impacted by 4 significant named systems, but NONE occured during September. Hurricane Omar, hurricane Gonzalo, and TS Rafael all occured in October, while hurricane Earl occured in late August.

I agree that recent years AND recent Septembers have been strange.
Quoting 221. HighOnHurricanes:



I think that may have been a gust report, not sustained.
That sounds more realistic.

Quoting 222. kmanislander:

Good evening

We are now just past the peak of the season. We transitioned to less active hurricane seasons about 3 or 4 years ago.
This year confirms that.

October will be the last gasp until 2017. September may have one more system of note but I am not pinning my expectations on that.
These lighter seasons seem to be featuring numerous low ACE systems, with the strongest landfalling storms coming in October and early November [secondary peak]. I wonder if we are seeing a transition not just in location of powerful storms but also in timing?
Quoting 171. Gearsts:

Is like a shield above CaribBoy house and PR.



Lol the GFS can't be serious xD
Quoting 173. Hurricanes101:



Thought you would like it. Fact is that it is true. The "Active" period, the 1995, 2005 and 2008 seasons are not normal. The 80s were full of struggling systems and dorment seasons. We are ahead in terms of numbers and now have 3 systems that are being tracked with models forecasting another one.

People were whining about wanting a beautiful major hurricane, we got that. Apparently that is not enough. We had a rapidly intensifying hurricane hit the US, but apparently that is not enough. We have had 10 named storms, are only a day or two away from 11 and are still well ahead in terms of named storms. 10-4-1 is not at all inactive, but apparently it is not enough.




I confirm : IT IS NOT ENOUGH ;) I want more. More!!
Quoting 230. CaribBoy:



September 2012, 2013, and 2015 had less than 1" of rain (average is 4-5").

2013, 2014, 2015 all had yearly totals below normal.

2015 broke all times heat AND drought record!

Since 2008, we were impacted by 4 significant named systems, but NONE occured during September. Hurricane Omar, hurricane Gonzalo, and TS Rafael all occured in October, while hurricane Earl occured in late August.

I agree that recent years AND recent Septembers have been strange.
That supports my thinking that we may be seeing a long-term shift in location and timing of major storms. Kman may also be right in suggesting that we're into a less active period after the active period beginning in 1997, even though 15 years seems relatively short....
Quoting 226. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Lesser Antilles in play?




Reminds me of Ophelia's track
Quoting 230. CaribBoy:



September 2012, 2013, and 2015 had less than 1" of rain (average is 4-5").

2013, 2014, 2015 all had yearly totals below normal.

2015 broke all times heat AND drought record!

Since 2008, we were impacted by 4 significant named systems, but NONE occured during September. Hurricane Omar, hurricane Gonzalo, and TS Rafael all occured in October, while hurricane Earl occured in late August.

I agree that recent years AND recent Septembers have been strange.


I looked up a little about the Caribbean and what you're seeing is possibly the consequences of climate change. I didn't realise, but the UN issued a report this year telling the Caribbean to prepare for increased drought - that climate change is likely going to cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought in the Caribbean. :(

Link

So, whilst your rain shortages may be partly due to a transition to a more -AMO state - it also looks like you may be feeling the early effects of climate change. :(
Quoting 200. Grothar:




Calling WKC?
Quoting 226. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Lesser Antilles in play?




Hopefully.

It won't be more than a naked swirl so no worries we can wishcast :))
Quoting 237. Envoirment:



I looked up a little about the Caribbean and what you're seeing is possibly the consequences of climate change. I didn't realise, but the UN issued a report this year telling the Caribbean to prepare for increased drought - that climate change is likely going to cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought in the Caribbean. :(

Link

So, whilst your rain shortages may be partly due to a transition to a more -AMO state - it also looks like you may be feeling the early effects of climate change. :(
Yep. Get out while you can.
The central gulf is worth watching. I expect there will be burst of convection in the morning hours.
Quoting 237. Envoirment:



I looked up a little about the Caribbean and what you're seeing is possibly the consequences of climate change. I didn't realise, but the UN issued a report this year telling the Caribbean to prepare for increased drought - that climate change is likely going to cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought in the Caribbean. :(

Link

So, whilst your rain shortages may be partly due to a transition to a more -AMO state - it also looks like you may be feeling the early effects of climate change. :(


I agree.

Very sad :(
Check out the strongest typhoons in China list. North of Hong Kong.

The strongest on record

160 mph, Super Typhoon Cora, September 5, 1966

The second strongest on record

150 mph, Super Typhoon Alice, September 3, 1966

On September 3, 1966 China north of Hong Kong set their record for the strongest landfalling typhoon. And 2 days later they set a new record with a different typhoon. They made landfall near the same place too. Amazing!


Typhoon Alice



Typhoon Cora

Interesting "line" of convection ENE of the Lessers

Quoting 237. Envoirment:



I looked up a little about the Caribbean and what you're seeing is possibly the consequences of climate change. I didn't realise, but the UN issued a report this year telling the Caribbean to prepare for increased drought - that climate change is likely going to cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought in the Caribbean. :(

Link

So, whilst your rain shortages may be partly due to a transition to a more -AMO state - it also looks like you may be feeling the early effects of climate change. :(


Keep in mind it's just a forecast like any other forecast. It doesn't necessarily will be right. Global Warming is happening, but forecasting how climate will change in different regions is a tricky thing. Not saying there warnings should be thrown out by any means, but they aren't guaranteed either.
247. vis0
image host
 
and that ends this chapter of "As the Tropics turn" (ATL VER.)
 
- Stay tuned and find out how REAL CAT5 "looks" add to those winds the damage water creates via property damage and loss of life. (hoping those in the path of wPAC 2016MERANTI are well prepared as most there have done for other devastating Cyclones/Hurricanes) 
- Stay tuned to see if members can post a comment and have it show up before a homing pigeon delivers it to readers in North Korea. (try to hack that "fancy bears"...talk 'bout gray pÖpon) 

- Stay tuned to see w=how aquak9 reacts when aquak9 receives a luvly box decorated in images of luvly adorned clay flower pots, opens the box and sees that vis0 sent a 24cent coupon for LOCTITE pro super glue (not joinable with other coupons, valid only in NY/NJ...expires in a week) 
- stay tuned to see if the GASTON FRIENDSHIP (joining of 2 blobs) at ~4 days was longer than the WxU to FB eFriends...too soon?
 
and will 1 storm (hopefully a just right TS of 50mph with steady light rain for 2 days) visit both caribBoy and purete1948 causing all at WxU to throw up their hands in disbelief and [joke] HHJoe andPedlyCA to start commenting if its going to rain too much every time the sprinklers come on [joke]

 The LOW out NW-MIDWEST seems to want to do more heavy lifting than expect, be careful / aware.
Stay tuned and with the utmost respect OBSERVE NATURE

Quoting 214. BahaHurican:

Sounds bogus to me .... Navy website was showing 90kt sustained at landfall on mainland China ....

Doc and Dok were saying 195 mph winds ... not sure where CNN is getting their numbers.


Just throw it out there news without accuracy, nothing new. They should start getting fined for false reporting..
Quoting 247. vis0:

image host
 
and that ends this chapter of "As the Tropics turn" (ATL VER.)
 
- Stay tuned and find out how REAL CAT5 "looks" add to those winds the damage water creates via property damage and loss of life. (hoping those in the path of wPAC 2016MERANTI are well prepared as most there have done for other devastating Cyclones/Hurricanes) 
- Stay tuned to see if members can post a comment and have it show up before a homing pigeon delivers it to readers in North Korea. (try to hack that "fancy bears"...talk 'bout gray pÖpon) 

- Stay tuned to see w=how aquak9 reacts when aquak9 receives a luvly box decorated in images of luvly adorned clay flower pots, opens the box and sees that vis0 sent a 24cent coupon for LOCTITE pro super glue (not joinable with other coupons, valid only in NY/NJ...expires in a week) 
- stay tuned to see if the GASTON FRIENDSHIP (joining of 2 blobs) at ~4 days was longer than the WxU to FB eFriends...too soon?
 
and will 1 storm (hopefully a just right TS of 50mph with steady light rain for 2 days) visit both caribBoy and purete1948 causing all at WxU to throw up their hands in disbelief and [joke] HHJoe andPedlyCA to start commenting if its going to rain too much every time the sprinklers come on [joke]

 The LOW out NW-MIDWEST seems to want to do more heavy lifting than expect, be careful / aware.
Stay tuned and with the utmost respect OBSERVE NATURE




SSSsAT...wait...I'm terrible at the daily jumble


The month of October can produce some very severe storms. Hurricane, then Super cyclone Sandy from back in 2012.


New London CT. after the Great New England Hurricane of September 1938.
Quoting 251. Grothar:


Is that a tropical storm.
Quoting 252. HurriHistory:



The month of October can produce some very severe storms. Hurricane, then Super cyclone Sandy from back in 2012.


Well, September isn't over, but October has produced more potent storms than that, including the lowest pressure in the basin, and in the EPAC/West Hemisphere. Won't skip over the month but October could give us a wow me thinks.


Biscayne Blvd. in downtown Miami during Hurricane Betsy, September 1965
257. IDTH
Quoting 251. Grothar:



It's got that I storm feel. It's got that "I have a bad feeling about this" feeling.

Good thing we have a lot of time to watch it.
Lesser Antilles it is, I knew the models were going to underestimate the subtropical ridge, they have done that all year long. And the troughs have not been as impressive as years past, hardly any cool weather yet for the Northeast. Currently 72 in NYC. Julia is even trapped underneath a ridge and not in any hurry to go OTS. Hermine took her time going up the East Coast as well.

Karl coming soon
260. thunk
Hi, I'm thunk. I occasionally do meteorology things.

I've been lurking for howevermany years, but I finally decided to start posting. Hurricanes are fun--from a distance.
Quoting 259. Grothar:

Karl coming soon
Quoting 258. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Lesser Antilles it is, I knew the models were going to underestimate the subtropical ridge, they have done that all year long. And the troughs have not been as impressive as years past, hardly any cool weather yet for the Northeast. Currently 72 in NYC. Julia is even trapped underneath a ridge and not in any hurry to go OTS. Hermine took her time going up the East Coast as well.


I guess that's ok.
Quoting 252. HurriHistory:



The month of October can produce some very severe storms. Hurricane, then Super cyclone Sandy from back in 2012.
Don't forget about November Hurricanes: Ida, Paloma, Wrong-Way Lenny, Gordon '94, and Kate '85.



Damage from Hurricane Paloma on the island of Cayman Brac as seen on Nov. 14, 2008. (Image credit: Weather Underground/mangroveman)


Hopefully not a naked swirl...


Powerful Hurricane Mitch with 155-MPH back in October 1998.
Hey look who decided to show up.

Quoting 265. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey look who decided to show up.


Interesting to see that in the future.


Hurricane David produced wind gusts to 70-MPH along Miami Beach back in September 1979.
Quoting 254. HurricaneAndre:

Is that a tropical storm.


I know, I was thinking the same thing. It would be nice to have a few more satellite images every now and then, but I guess they do the best they can with what they have. Which is sad, considering the NSA literally has so many spy satellites they're giving them away, at least periodically, to NASA.


Hurricane Cleo on Miami Radar, August 27, 1964
Going to jinx the blog.
Pureet better hunker down. Got a storm a brewing heading for Texas!

WOW! Comment showed up without hitting the F5 key!



Hurricane Betsy on Miami Radar, September 1965
Atlantic may be calm... But holy cow - the other side of the Earth is sure producing some big, powerful hurricanes.
Quoting 267. HurriHistory:



Hurricane David produced wind gusts to 70-MPH along Miami Beach back in September 1979.
We're suffering from hurricane withdrawal syndrome or HWM. It happens when there's a lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Symptoms include:
Posting hurricane pictures
Wish casting
Arguing
Sadness
Only cure is a hurricane.
Quoting 273. HurricaneAndre:

We're suffering from hurricane withdrawal syndrome or HWM. It happens when there's a lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Symptoms include:
Posting hurricane pictures
Wish casting
Arguing
Sadness
Only cure is a hurricane.


I think your right about that. The 1960s and 70s had some great Hurricanes to track. All we have now is dry air and wind shear with a bunch of crippled storms. UGH!
This was posted on our local news on 9/14/2016.

The strongest storm system to develop in 2016 continues churning near Taiwan today, on a course taking it toward southeast China.

Super Typhoon Meranti is an intense system that at its peak on Tuesday morning was generating maximum sustained winds at a staggering 185 mph.

That's 5 mph stronger than Tropical Cyclone Winston's 180 mph sustained winds when it slammed the small island of Fiji in March 2016.

"Typhoon" is the equivalent of what we would call a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean basin. The words typhoons, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are all essentially interchangeable but used in various areas of the world to distinguish tropical storm systems.

Regardless of the name, all tropical storm systems are classified using the same wind scale we're familiar with when it comes to Atlantic hurricanes.

Hurricanes and typhoons are measured on a scale of one to five. Category one storms are the weakest generating sustained winds of at least 74 mph; category five storms are the strongest creating sustained winds topping 156 mph.

With max sustained winds of 185 mph, Typhoon Meranti would be considered a major category five hurricane if it were in the Atlantic basin. In fact, if Meranti were to have developed in the Atlantic, it would have been one of the strongest to ever develop there.

With that in mind, it begs the question: Could a "Meranti" ever hit Florida?

The short answer would be yes. In fact, we've had storm systems in relatively close proximity to the state that were about as strong as Meranti.

2005 was the last time a major hurricane hit the state of Florida. That's when Hurricane Wilma came ashore just south of Marco Island as a category three storm.

Before it made landfall though Wilma was an extremely strong hurricane. Its maximum sustained winds were estimated to have hit 185 mph on Oct. 19, 2005 when it was rapidly intensifying over the western Caribbean Sea.

Other storm systems in somewhat recent memory generating major category five sustained winds near Florida both happened in 2005. That's when Hurricane Rita peaked with sustained winds of 180 mph in the Gulf of Mexico. Before making landfall and causing tremendous damage to the city of New Orleans, the infamous Hurricane Katrina was creating sustained 175 mph winds before landfall over the Gulf.

According to the National Hurricane Center when Hurricane Camille came ashore in 1969 wind gusts were estimated to have been near 200 mph. It's unclear exactly how strong they were though when the storm came on land because the system destroyed every reliable wind-reading instrument in the area.

Before hurricanes were well understood, Florida suffered major casualties from land falling systems. More than 1,100 people are believed to have died in the Florida Keys between two hurricanes hitting the area; one came in 1919 and the second in 1935.

When considering the question if a Super Typhoon Meranti-type storm could ever hit Florida, it's important to keep things in context when comparing the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Typhoons (or hurricanes as we would call them) are far more likely to develop in the Pacific than they are in the Atlantic; that ups the chance of a system the size of Super Typhoon Meranti making landfall.

A typical season in the Atlantic yields 12 named tropical storms and hurricanes. In the western Pacific though where Meranti is located near Taiwan, a normal year sees more than 25 named storm systems.

The western Pacific Ocean can be a favorable area of the globe for these types of systems to develop. The Pacific is bigger than the Atlantic and can hold more heat energy due to its size that typhoons can use to develop and strengthen.

So though it's possible Florida could see a system the size of Meranti impact the state, the odds are higher for areas in the western Pacific.
Quoting 259. Grothar:

Karl coming soon


Gro - Prefers Eli's Coming' - three dog night.....

Just gettin up - it must be Thursday. I see Julia is running around topless tonight

Wow! The Navy model.

After analysis, somehow a tropical storm has just formed west of France. Conditions are actually quite good except for the 23C SST's but the instability is pretty high and a lot of factors are in place. The conditions are much better than Alex, except for the instability, even though the instability on this storm ranges from 0.5C to 4C. Image:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/NunoLava1998/trop ical-storm-west-of-france
Here comes my update about that TS west of France, which could be 75 mph since coastal areas are already experiencing 60-70 mph.
Information From Estofex

Bay of Biscay
A cut-off low centered across the Bay of Biscay slowly moves east. Warm-core depression connected to the trough makes landfall during the period and weakens. Strong winds and high precipitation are likely but not addressed in this convective outlook as thunderstorms embedded in the storm will not significantly contribute to the threat.

Strong low-level vertical wind shear and some low-level buoyancy can be expected during the landfall of the warm-core system. Therefore, tornadoes are not ruled out.
Quoting 281. HadesGodWyvern:

Information From Estofex

Bay of Biscay
A cut-off low centered across the Bay of Biscay slowly moves east. Warm-core depression connected to the trough makes landfall during the period and weakens. Strong winds and high precipitation are likely but not addressed in this convective outlook as thunderstorms embedded in the storm will not significantly contribute to the threat.

Strong low-level vertical wind shear and some low-level buoyancy can be expected during the landfall of the warm-core system. Therefore, tornadoes are not ruled out.

that's the tropical storm
It's connected to a front... in like extreme upper level, and at surface it's cut-off.
meteo-france High Sea Warning not too excited by the low now, but from earlier today statement that it was down to 999 in pressure.

SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 445, THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2016 AT 0740 UTC

LOW 1002 46N 06W, MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EXPECTED 1006 44N02W BY 16/00 UTC, THEN FILLING.
Quoting 278. NunoLava1998:

After analysis, somehow a tropical storm has just formed west of France. Conditions are actually quite good except for the 23C SST's but the instability is pretty high and a lot of factors are in place. The conditions are much better than Alex, except for the instability, even though the instability on this storm ranges from 0.5C to 4C. Image:



Good morning! I see some more eyes are on our European subtropical system "Stephanie" in the Bay of Biscay :-)


Current IR loop (updating).

Below some maps from Arome (AROME is a small scale numerical prediction model, operational at Meteo-France since December 2008. It was designed to improve short range forecasts of severe events such as intense Mediterranean precipitations (Cevenole events), severe storms, fog, urban heat during heat waves.)


Current (maximum gales at the surface).


Tonight at midnight 00z. Source: meteociel.
ECMWF for the same time.


Phase diagram (UKMET) shows the development of a weak warm core.
Quoting 283. HadesGodWyvern:

meteo-france High Sea Warning not too excited by the low now, but from earlier today statement that it was down to 999 in pressure.

SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 445, THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2016 AT 0740 UTC

LOW 1002 46N 06W, MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EXPECTED 1006 44N02W BY 16/00 UTC, THEN FILLING.


Yes, pressure is at 999mb or below right now:
http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/pressi on.php


998mb. Click to enlarge. (Source).
Quoting 285. barbamz:

Good morning! I see some more eyes are on our European subtropical system "Stephanie" in the Bay of Biscay :-)


Current IR loop.

Below some maps from Arome (AROME is a small scale numerical prediction model, operational at Meteo-France since December 2008. It was designed to improve short range forecasts of severe events such as intense Mediterranean precipitations (Cévenole events), severe storms, fog, urban heat during heat waves.)


Current (maximum gales at the surface).


Tonight at midnight 00z. Source: meteociel.


Phase diagram (UKMET) shows the development of a weak warm core.

I thought it was ridicolous but after analysis i concluded it is a weak-warm cored system that is extremely tropical!
Quoting 284. fabian171017:





Nothing tropical with this occluded system.
Quoting 288. cRRKampen:


Nothing tropical with this occluded system.

It's occluded at like 250 mb
twcs "its now too common to see stuff flying around. what are you suppose to do" okay talking about hype. reality is its not common at all Mr Twc. last storm i remember that blew stuff around wilma or Sandy? that was quite a while ago.
Quoting 289. NunoLava1998:


It's occluded at like 250 mb

Sort of secluded warmish core. Things like this can transition into (sub-)tropical systems warranting a name, through drifting southwards to leave the subtropical jet region, but not this one.
Not an uncommon occurence. They can exist over e.g. the North Sea, too, in all times of year and they would never be associated with a true (sub-)tropical disturbance.
Quoting 291. cRRKampen:


Sort of secluded warmish core. Things like this can transition into (sub-)tropical systems warranting a name, through drifting southwards to leave the subtropical jet region, but not this one.
Not an uncommon occurence. They can exist over e.g. the North Sea, too, in all times of year and they would never be associated with a true (sub-)tropical disturbance.

Fresh article in French from Keraunos.org:
Dépression subtropicale dans le Golfe de Gascogne le 15 septembre, un phénomène remarquable
Une dépression à cœur chaud et fortement instable s'est creusée dans le Golfe de Gascogne. Le phénomène est remarquable sur un plan climatologique.
(With some maps)
As for now, still no news from Itbayat, the northernmost island of the Philippines, hit by Meranti.

They got some news from Basco on Batan island to its south, though, which isn't that bad (yet).
Here the latest disaster report (pdf).
Homepage for updates.

Approaching typhoon Malakas sure doesn't help, although its center should stay away from the islands:





Best wishes, everyone! BBL
Quoting 285. barbamz:

Good morning! I see some more eyes are on our European subtropical system "Stephanie" in the Bay of Biscay :-)


Current IR loop.

Below some maps from Arome (AROME is a small scale numerical prediction model, operational at Meteo-France since December 2008. It was designed to improve short range forecasts of severe events such as intense Mediterranean precipitations (C�venole events), severe storms, fog, urban heat during heat waves.)


Current (maximum gales at the surface).


Tonight at midnight 00z. Source: meteociel.
ECMWF for the same time.


Phase diagram (UKMET) shows the development of a weak warm core.

Malakas. It's the storm of the century.
there is a chance the the leftovers of Julia comes back to the swamps west of Melbourne where the circulation began.
Quoting 294. Uragani:

Malakas. It's the storm of the century.

Quoting 295. islander101010:

there is a chance the the leftovers of Julia comes back to the swamps west of Melbourne where the circulation began.

Really? Looks like dry air will get to it before that happens.
12L just coming into the picture.

Looks like it's pretty far north already.
Water Vapor Loop
Quoting 251. Grothar:


This is looking good for a TD....
hows our tick bite look today? ex 92. just does not want to heal.
Good morning. TD 12 is worth watching. It's going to be yet another MDR struggle story, but if it survives until it gets towards the Lesser Antilles, it could be a factor. However, it's certainly possible that it degenerates into a remnant low any time during the next 5-7 days.
I said before when TD 12 just formed that I thought it might end up in the Caribbean but kept it quiet didn't wanna excite CaribBoy too much
Now I think it will indeed end up in the Caribbean this just might be the one that Caribboy may get some joy out of

I think some of the models are underestimating the ridge that will keep the system to the South

Quoting 299. BahaHurican:

This is looking good for a TD....


I don't know when I see it on vis and RGB I'm not too sure what to think to be honest
Quoting 232. Patrap:




Interesting looking dry air pattern over the N Atlantic.
Quoting 301. MAweatherboy1:

Good morning. TD 12 is worth watching. It's going to be yet another MDR struggle story, but if it survives until it gets towards the Lesser Antilles, it could be a factor. However, it's certainly possible that it degenerates into a remnant low any time during the next 5-7 days.


Yes I think TD12 could become a big player down the road

Thinking about it later parts of Sept and into Oct we would expect system off Africa to start to struggle until it gets near the Caribbean
This should be no different for TD12 imo

Over all I think the Caribbean and Bahamas and offshore W and E of Florida and other parts of the GOM will be the area to watch for the rest of the season IMO
305. MahFL
Shear relaxed a touch near TD Julia :

Could it be...?!



Eastern Atlantic trash worth paying attention to?!

That little blip in the pressure field south of the eastern US high is 12L. FWIW, I never bought into the ECMWF's original idea of a quick run to hurricane status. The MDR has been hostile all year; why would that suddenly stop now?
Going to agree that 12L is something we need to watch for a long-term threat. 00z EPS is showing a decent amount of ridging up to 192 hours. If the system stays weak yet manages to survive the death trap that's the MDR, then it has a shot to intensify north of the Islands. For now though, it's another weak and struggling tropical depression/storm tracking westward across the Atlantic.

td12 another nail biter
Quoting 305. MahFL:

Shear relaxed a touch near TD Julia :


Quoting 305. MahFL:

Shear relaxed a touch near TD Julia :



Down to a mere 25 knts with dry air on the way. Kind of wish the storm would come back to shore and head inland where the rain is really needed. I am on the coast near Savannah and only got .3 inches. The airport received only . 2 inches despite predictions of 4-6 inches and possibly up to 10 inches. The inland counties in Ga are hurting for rain.
Quoting 308. islander101010:

td12 another nail biter


You might want to dip your fingers in Jalapeno juice (the hot, hot kind). It will keep you from biting :)
Little subtropical storm Stephanie in the Bay of Biscay (see posts earlier this morning) continues to improve its center. Let's wait and see what is possible in this part of the Atl, lol!


Source for updates.


Current Spanish radar (saved). Source for updates.

Links to regional radars in Spain.

Nice French radar site (will become more interesting later).


Radar of whole Europe.
Is it me or since late last night did the center of Julia kinda elongate some then retighten a bit further east?
314. beell
TD 12. Both parts present and accounted for.

T.D12 will continue to struggle and I wouldn't be surprised if it opened back up into a remnant low for a time.I see the Euro is starting to shift to the GFS idea.The conditions have just not been that favorable in the Atlantic.
317. beell
Why I don't like the Rainbow.




Quoting 301. MAweatherboy1:

Good morning. TD 12 is worth watching. It's going to be yet another MDR struggle story, but if it survives until it gets towards the Lesser Antilles, it could be a factor. However, it's certainly possible that it degenerates into a remnant low any time during the next 5-7 days.


Conditions across the MDR have been totally unfavorable to sustain anything worth mentioning all year. Conditions (wind shear) are even worse now. They are suddenly going to become favorable. The chances of this getting to the eastern Caribbean of anything more than a weak storm or remnant low are extremely low.
Quoting 314. beell:

TD 12. Both parts present and accounted for.



Waiting for the first "it is starting to get that shrimp look"comment.
321. VR46L
Quoting 312. barbamz:

Little subtropical storm Stephanie in the Bay of Biscay (see posts earlier this morning) continues to improve its center. Let's wait and see what is possible in this part of the Atl, lol!


Source for updates.


Current Spanish radar (saved). Source for updates.

Links to regional radars in Spain.

Nice French radar site (will become more interesting later).


Radar of whole Europe.


Er , I am no expert ... but that does not look Sub -tropical to me

It looks like a frontal system IMO



322. VR46L
Quoting 310. JParsons:


Down to a mere 25 knts with dry air on the way. Kind of wish the storm would come back to shore and head inland where the rain is really needed. I am on the coast near Savannah and only got .3 inches. The airport received only . 2 inches despite predictions of 4-6 inches and possibly up to 10 inches. The inland counties in Ga are hurting for rain.


Are you any relation to the guy that acts as Sheldon ???


3 closed lows in 3 different areas, and nary a development in sight.... yet.
Quoting 321. VR46L:

Er , I am no expert ... but that does not look Sub -tropical to me


Well, some weather sites, monitoring the system, believe that it's about to become subtropical, or already is. (See link to this article I've posted earlier). From another French weather site (with maps), translated:

Addition Thursday 10h30:
Depression in the Bay of Biscay, named Stephanie, is more and more likely to adopt a subtropical character. Indeed, if we believe the models, all agree on the formation of a warm heart in the center between surface and midlevel.

Edit:

Current radar 3pm. Source.
Good morning, folks.

Today is September 15th, 2016.

9 more days until the 11th anniversary of Hurricane Rita of 2005, aka the Forgotten Hurrricane.
Quoting 300. islander101010:

hows our tick bite look today? ex 92. just does not want to heal.


it looks more like a pimple this AM..supposed to just bring rain to our area over the weekend
Wow! Here in Wilmington NC its overcast with those low hanging clouds and its drizzling. Two large leaves have fallen ( fallen isnt the right word- more like drifted down) onto my porch from the willow tree in my front yard. Where are the warnings? We had them with Hermine. I think they would be prudent.
SARCASM FLAG ON
Quoting 322. VR46L:



Are you any relation to the guy that acts as Sheldon ???

No, but if they ever make a documentary about Pee-wee Herman, he is the guy to play the role.
I really hope that TD12 will bring significant weather here in a few days. At least big rains and thunder? Too much ask to the MDR?
TD #12 is going to be something to seriously watch by next week. It is the comebacks of the invest this year yall
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
TD Julia...

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
@TropicalTidbits Hermine started this way. Other classic examples include Irene (2011) and Elena (1985).

20m
Quoting 328. K8eCane:

Wow! Here in Wilmington NC its overcast with those low hanging clouds and its drizzling. Two large leaves have fallen ( fallen isnt the right word- more like drifted down) onto my porch from the willow tree in my front yard. Where are the warnings? We had them with Hermine. I think they would be prudent.
SARCASM FLAG ON


For some reason 40 mph winds are OMG, when it's from a tropical disturbance.

I remember when I lived just outside of Oklahoma City we would get S.W. winds of 40-50 mph just a head developing lows across Kansas. That was just a windy day and nothing to even think about.

Everything is relative when it comes to wind.

The only real issue with weaker Tropical systems is flooding.
What would be the earliest day that TD12 could touch CONUS?
I am going to be stuck in Florida (not flying driving Chicago to Florida) from this Sunday to early next Saturday. IF it were to be a hurricane or bad TS and IF it were to hit somewhere in Florida I would want to know the soonest this would be a possibility. I know many factors can change things but I am just looking at worst case scenario for me.
338. vis0

Quoting 282. NunoLava1998:


that's the tropical storm
It's connected to a front... in like extreme upper level, and at surface it's cut-off.
Boy Hermine is everywhere?
 part of Hermine went into ULL off Florida and 2-3 days after that was in the mess that surprised many off or in Florida's coast (remember the 2 swirls - off coast was ghost of Hermine) and on the 1th of September another part of Hermine quite a bit south of Nova Scotia, that went with a front towards Europe ...i wonder??? since the tropical portion is just a partial stacking.

 [joke with some truth to it]  If it gets stronger as it goes ashore that's Hermines "genes" at work. [joke with some truth to it]
339. vis0

Quoting 328. K8eCane:

Wow! Here in Wilmington NC its overcast with those low hanging clouds and its drizzling. Two large leaves have fallen ( fallen isnt the right word- more like drifted down) onto my porch from the willow tree in my front yard. Where are the warnings? We had them with Hermine. I think they would be prudent.
SARCASM FLAG ON
run fer the mounds!! [SARCASM] BTW NCStorm's ants did it again. They stayed in (means no LOW going overhead) and TS turned away from their ~area new improved WxModel  AntEuro
I saw that x why did they take that off. wonder if that could affect karls path. more to come off Africa in a few days. and some said season was over. haha
uh what are you talking about. I just watched nhc satt photos it is moving wsw.