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Taiwan, China Brace for Cat 5 Meranti; TS Ian Churns Through Open Atlantic

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:45 PM GMT on September 13, 2016

The newest Jeff Masters/Bob Henson blog post is available at https://www.wunderground.com/blog/. Yesterday's post: Mammoth Super Typhoon Meranti may spare Taiwan a direct hit as it continues barreling toward a potentially destructive landfall in China. Now moving just north of due west at about 15 mph, Meranti will be located near the southern tip of Taiwan by around 8:00 am Wednesday local time (8:00 pm Tuesday EDT). The latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) takes the center of Meranti within 50 miles of southern Taiwan, close enough to generate torrential rains, possible landslides, and significant wind damage. Meranti is expected to slam into the southeast coast of China early Thursday local time (8:00 pm EDT Wednesday), perhaps near or just south of the city of Xiamen (population 3.5 million) in China’s Fujian province.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Meranti on Tuesday evening local time, September 13, 2016. Image credit: NOAA-NASA and RAMMB/CIRA, courtesy Jon Erdman, weather.com (@wxjerdman).


Figure 2. WU depiction of the JTWC track forecast for Meranti as of 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Tuesday, September 13, 2016.

Meranti among the deepest typhoons in world records
Meranti is a very large and extremely powerful typhoon. Its highest 1-minute sustained winds were 185 mph on Tuesday morning, according to the JWTC. This puts Meranti ahead of Cyclone Winston for the strongest sustained winds for any tropical cyclone of 2016 thus far. (Winston’s top winds were reduced from 185 to 180 mph in post-storm reanalysis.)

Meranti is even more impressive than Winston in another way. Because Meranti is so large, its central pressure is even lower than would be the case for a smaller storm that had the same peak winds. At 1250Z (8:50 am EDT) Tuesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency analyzed Meranti’s central pressure at 890 millibars. This puts Meranti in the elite pantheon of the deepest tropical cyclones ever recorded anywhere on Earth. Several others have had 890 mb central pressure, but only a few have dipped below that mark, including 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic, 1 hurricane in the Northeast Pacific, and 13 typhoons in the Northwest Pacific:

Typhoon Tip (1979) - 870 mb
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 872 mb
Typhoon June (1975) - 875 mb
Typhoon Nora (1973) - 875 mb
Typhoon Ida (1958) - 877 mb
Typhoon Kit (1966) - 880 mb
Typhoon Rita (1978) - 880 mb
Typhoon Vanessa (1984) - 880 mb
Typhoon Nancy (1961) - 882 mb
Hurricane Wilma (2005) - 882 mb
Typhoon Forrest (1983) - 885 mb
Typhoon Irma (1971) - 885 mb
Typhoon Megi (2010) - 885 mb
Typhoon Nina (1953) - 885 mb
Typhoon Marge (1951) - 886 mb
Hurricane Gilbert (1988) - 888 mb

Most of these typhoon readings are direct measurements, collected aboard reconnaissance flights that were conducted for decades across the Northwest Pacific. With the advent of satellite imagery, regular reconnaissance missions into typhoons were dropped in 1987. It’s possible that several other post-1987 typhoons had central pressures below 890 mb that could not be accurately inferred via satellite. Some of the readings above have been rounded to the nearest 5 mb by the Japan Meteorological Agency, according to WU member 1900hurricane. He adds that Typhoon Judy (1979) had a reconnaissance-measured pressure of 887 mb that’s not part of the JMA database. Thanks to WU member SPShaw for compiling this list.

According to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), only two Northwest Pacific typhoons aside from Meranti are known to have maintained 185-mph sustained winds for at least 18 hours: Tip (1979) and Haiyan (2013).


Figure 3. Visible (left) and infrared (right) VIIRS satellite imagery of the eye and eyewall of Super Typhoon Meranti as of 0508 (1:08 am EDT) Tuesday, September 13, 2016. Image credit: NOAA-NASA and RAMMB/CIRA, courtesy Dan Lindsey (Colorado State University), @DanLindsey77.


Figure 4. Radar image of Super Typhoon Meranti taken at 12:40 EDT September 13, 2016 (12:40 am local time on September 14.) Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

The outlook for Meranti
Even a glancing blow from Meranti is likely to produce significant damage in Taiwan. Meranti is so large that winds above tropical storm force and torrential rains can be expected over much of the island, with much higher winds near the center. The tall mountains of southeast Taiwan will wring out huge amounts of moisture as the storm approaches, with localized rainfall amounts of 25” or more quite possible along east-facing slopes. In addition, enormous waves will batter the southeast coast. Fortunately, this area is sparsely populated, and Meranti is moving at a good clip, which will reduce the chance of even higher rainfall amounts. Taiwan’s second-largest city, Kaohsiung, is located along the nation’s southwest coast, which could get hurricane-force winds as Meranti sweeps by to its south.

Storm surge will not be the biggest threat from Meranti in Taiwan, according to surge expert Hal Needham. “Tropical cyclones have trouble generating substantial storm surge in Taiwan because of the offshore water depth off the east coast is quite deep. Powerful typhoons approach from the east and would need either shallower offshore water or large inlets and bays to generate high storm surge. Those factors are missing from the east coast,” said Needham in an email. “The offshore water depth is more shallow along the west coast, which is also more populated. However, the strongest typhoon winds along a westward-facing coast are blowing offshore because of the counter-clockwise circulation. Typhoons will try to build up storm surge along the ‘back side’ of the storm, but this is not very efficient anywhere in Taiwan.”


Figure 5. Aqua/MODIS image of Marenti at 0510Z (1:10 am EDT) Tuesday, September 13, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Potential impacts in China
Meranti’s worst impacts may well be in China. Especially if the typhoon avoids a direct hit on Taiwan, it will weaken only partially before reaching the China coast, so there is the potential for major wind damage and storm surge. Should Meranti strike just south of Xiamen, that city and its major port would be at risk of surge impacts. Given the mountainous terrain of China’s Fujian province, we can expect widespread torrential rainfall as a weakening Meranti slows down and grinds its way inland.

Meranti’s projected track is very similar to that of another super typhoon that struck Taiwan back in early July. Super Typhoon Nepartak maintained Category 5 strength with sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 900 mb until it was just 12 hours from landfall in Taiwan on July 7, 2016. Nepartak made landfall on the southeastern shore of Taiwan as a Category 4 super typhoon with top sustained winds of 150 mph, as estimated by the the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), with a central pressure estimated at 930 mb by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA). Nepartak struck the sparsely populated southeast coast of Taiwan and moved offshore north of Kaohsiung, limiting the damage from the storm. Three deaths in Taiwan were blamed on Nepartak, along with $33 million in agricultural damage. National Taiwan University (NTU) buoy NTU2 (located about 170 km southeast of Taitung, Taiwan) recorded a surface pressure of approximately 897 mb as the eye passed over near 8 am EDT July 7. If verified, this would have ranked as the lowest surface pressure ever measured by a buoy in world history. However, we received this update today by email from Ching-Ling Wei from the Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University: ”We have recovered the barometer at NTU2 during a buoy service cruise in early August and sent it to the Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau for calibrating the pressure sensor. After a carefully calibration procedure, we corrected the pressure data and obtained the lowest atmospheric pressure of 911.5 hPa instead of 897 hPa when the center of Nepartak was the closest to NTU2.” You can check out the National Taiwan University buoy website http://po.oc.ntu.edu.tw/ for  near-real time data as Super Typhoon Meranti passes by their two buoys. It appears, though, that the buoys lie too far to the north of Meranti’s track to receive hurricane-force winds.


Figure 6. Buoy NTU2 of the Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University recorded a lowest atmospheric pressure of 911.5 mb in Super Typhoon Nepartak when the storm made its closest pass on July 7, 2016. A camera on the buoy recorded these boating-unfriendly conditions during the typhoon.

The encounter with the high mountains of Taiwan destroyed the inner core of Nepartak, resulting in the surface circulation separating from the circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A much weakened Tropical Storm Nepartak made landfall in mainland China day later, causing torrential rains that triggered flooding that killed 108 people and caused over $1.4 billion in damage. Meranti should experience less disruption from Taiwan’s mountains than Nepartak, given its more southerly track. According to the National Meteorological Center of China, the region of the coast where Meranti is expected to make landfall received over four inches of rain during the past ten days. It is likely that the soils are near saturation, and widespread destructive flooding can be anticipated from Meranti’s rains.

In the early afternoon Tuesday (U.S. EDT) Meranti was passing very close to two islands owned by the Philippines. At noon EDT Tuesday (midnight local time on Wednesday) , winds at Basco Radar, Philippines were sustained (10-minute average) at 90 mph and the pressure was 936 mb. At 1 am local time, winds at nearby Itbayat were sustained at 112 mph, with a pressure of 934 mb.

Storm chaser James Reynolds is on the southern tip of Taiwan, and will be posting updates to his Twitter feed.

Tropical Storm Ian churning the central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ian was in the central Atlantic on Tuesday morning, about 900 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, headed north-northwest at 13 mph. Ian was in an environment not conducive for intensification, with wind shear a high 20 knots. Shear is expected to let up only a little this week, making it unlikely Ian will ever attain hurricane strength before getting absorbed by a cold front on Saturday. Ian is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 7. Regional radar for Florida at 11 am EDT Tuesday, September 13, 2016, showed bands of showers from 93L impacting the coastal waters of Florida.

93L over central Florida showing development as it moves inland
An area of low pressure (Invest 93L) was located just west of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday morning, and was headed inland, to the north-northwest, at about 10 mph. Satellite images and radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed that 93L was growing more organized Tuesday morning, with an increase in heavy thunderstorm activity, low level spiral bands beginning to form, and some rotation to the cloud pattern beginning to appear. The disturbance was battling high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The system will bring heavy rains to much of Florida and portions of southern Georgia on Tuesday. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40%. This system looked a lot like a tropical depression on radar late Tuesday morning, and was generating sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at the Buoy 41009 (23 miles east of Cape Canaveral) at 11:50 am EDT.

95L off the coast of Africa may develop
A large tropical wave (Invest 95L) emerged from the coast of Africa Monday night, and was headed west-northwest at about 10 - 15 mph towards the Cabo Verde Islands. Satellite images late Tuesday morning showed that this wave was well-organized, with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, a moist atmosphere and warm SSTs near 27.5°C (81.5°F), 95L is likely to develop into a tropical depression late this week in the central tropical Atlantic, as predicted by the 0Z Tuesday runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models. The storm will mostly track to the west-northwest over the next five days, into a region of ocean where few storms eventually end up hitting the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, it is too early to assume that 95L will recurve to the north and northeast without ever affecting any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively.


Figure 8. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Orlene as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Tuesday, September 13, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Hurricane Orlene on the decline
After topping out as a high-end Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 110 mph, Hurricane Orlene is now on the downswing. Located about 600 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, as of 11 am EDT Tuesday, Orlene was crawling north-northeast at just 5 mph, with top sustained winds down to 100 mph. A weakness in the upper-level ridge north of Orlene will keep steering currents very weak until Thursday, when the hurricane should resume a westward motion that will keep it away from the Mexican coast. Orlene is over marginally warm waters of 26-27°C, and its slow motion will allow cooler waters to be churned up, so the weakening trend should continue. Orlene is the 10th hurricane of the surprisingly busy East Pacific season of 2016.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 495. 1900hurricane:

A VIIRS nighttime visible pass happened to coincide with Super Typhoon Meranti's crossing of Itbayat.


OMG. What a picture.
Quoting 494. GeoffreyWPB:




Mine have more color :P
Quoting 495. 1900hurricane:

A VIIRS nighttime visible pass happened to coincide with Super Typhoon Meranti's crossing of Itbayat.




Beautifully deadly.
Quoting 485. 7544:



yeap those birds were right


If you wonder how I always get these systems right, I can honestly say, "a little bird told me".
so now we gonna start tagging systems overland
great I will be waiting the the first grt lakes named system in the future
maybe use 101 to 109 number sytems


invest 101 over western mich will track eastward
and form into a tropical storm over lake Huron
and track eastward into southern Ontario
later this evening
once over western ny state
it will continue eastward being declared a hurricane as it enters the atlantic
just se of new York city tracking sw towards the nw carb
into the gulf and landfall into LA flooding the state then tracking ne ward
up and out over the spine of the apps into eastern Canada
to die in the northern atlantic waters somewhere just off Greenland
Quoting 491. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have goosebumps. What a thing of beauty! Perfectly, symmetrical. It's basically the shape of a compact disc or in mechanics: gears or a crankshaft pulley. WOW this is what DOOM!!! actually looks like in reality. Mother Nature at her finest!




There is probably enough ACE is that, than all of the last two years in the Atlantic combined. Nice shot.
Quoting 495. 1900hurricane:

A VIIRS nighttime visible pass happened to coincide with Super Typhoon Meranti's crossing of Itbayat.




Typhoon Ferdie makes landfall in Batanes
State weather bureau PAGASA says Typhoon Ferdie (Meranti) hit land at 12:15 am on Wednesday, September 14

CAGAYAN, Philippines – Typhoon Ferdie (Meranti) made landfall in Itbayat, Batanes at 12:15 am on Wednesday, September 14.

State weather bureau PAGASA said this was based on information from its Doppler radar in Aparri, Cagayan.

Rappler was able to contact the Itbayat police station just 5 minutes after Ferdie made landfall, but a police officer who identified himself as PO2 Aguilar had to cut the phone interview short due to the weak cellular signal and strong winds.

"Sobrang lakas ng hangin. Hindi tayo magkarinigan. Tawag po kayo bukas sir kasi hindi kami maka-assess dahil may mga yerong nililipad ng hangin," Aguilar said.

(The winds are very strong. We can't hear each other. Call back tomorrow for assessments because we can't go out now. There are roofs being blown away by winds.)

In Basco, Batanes, Juliana Raquinio, an employee of the provincial environment office, said they could not sleep due to the strong winds.

Raquinio said electricity has been cut in the town since early Tuesday evening, September 13.

Rappler could no longer reach Raquinio and other contacts in Basco after 11:30 pm on Tuesday. – Rappler.com
Wonder if the NHC will show the start in their 5-day graphic a loop of TS Julia...(if they do declare it)

Quoting 506. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so now we gonna start tagging systems overland
great I will be waiting the the first grt lakes named system in the future
maybe use 101 to 109 number sytems


invest 101 over western mich will track eastward
and form into a tropical storm over lake Huron
and track eastward into southern Ontario
later this evening
once over western ny state
it will continue eastward being declared a hurricane as it enters the atlantic
just se of new York city tracking sw towards the nw carb
into the gulf and landfall into LA flooding the state then tracking ne ward
up and out over the spine of the apps into eastern Canada
to die in the northern atlantic waters somewhere just off Greenland


Given enough time, and recent trends, who knows? Could be possible.
Quoting 510. Grothar:


that overland blob over Africa looks tropical storm like maybe name now why wait till later lets get the j and k storm out of the way tonight L for 95 tomorrow heck maybe we will have scary shary by Halloween that'll be somem
Interesting scenario from EURO

If 93L forms by 11pm, would this be the first time that a tropical system has formed over US soil and not over water?
Quoting 516. Oxfordvalley:

If 93L forms by 11pm, would this be the first time that a tropical system has formed over US soil and not over land?
I wonder whether there is a big argument going on at NHC on whether to call TS Julia. Perhaps I should phrase that as "debate" since professional disagreements should remain civil.
invest 93L must be getting close to being
right overhead of water puppies house
I think it will be declared a tropical storm
if aqua will go outside and flood the lawn
with hot water to help the storm build even stronger
tropical characteristics and keep it warm core
for that true tropical storm classification requirement
of being over open water
Quoting 502. Grothar:



Mine have more color :P



Er, didn't we see a path like that eight years ago with Hurricane Ike?
Quoting 516. Oxfordvalley:

If 93L forms by 11pm, would this be the first time that a tropical system has formed over US soil and not over land?
u must mean over water cause its already overland
8:15 pm cdt
Quoting 516. Oxfordvalley:

If 93L forms by 11pm, would this be the first time that a tropical system has formed over US soil and not over land?


Isn't that the same thing? Haha.
Quoting 515. JohnCaesar:

Interesting scenario from EURO




If that verifies, we better hope that ridge breaks down fairly quickly.
525. RM706
I am sitting here on my porch in Jax listening to the light rain and light breeze. The radar shots and graphs seem like I would be soaked putting the trash out but noop. #perplexed
KOTG,
They're gonna have to have some way to designate NE storms from NW storms that roll in sometimes with hurricane force winds. Maybe NE 101-109 and NW 101-109? And what about the Bering Sea specials in Alaska?
BS 101-109
:)
its on the beach

as per COD at 02z

Quoting 523. LostTomorrows:



Isn't that the same thing? Haha.
Fixed. But still, would that be a first?
Quoting 526. Barefootontherocks:

KOTG,
They're gonna have to have some way to designate NE storms from NW storms that roll in sometimes with hurricane force winds. Maybe NE 101-109 and NW 101-109? And what about the Bering Sea specials into Alaska? BS 101-109
:)
rewrite everything all new designated rules you know sign of the times lets make it all a three ring circus
-Just going to say before going- We have all looked through historic records and it very soon. If not this year, the next few. A major hurricane will strike. Places like Georgia (Ironically New England gets more majors then them...) Eventually the luck runs out regardless of how long it runs.
Hey... Ian where are you going?
Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Sep 2016 02:09 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, located just inland over northeastern Florida, at 11 PM EDT

will hello Julia you cheated
Quoting 525. RM706:

I am sitting here on my porch in Jax listening to the light rain and light breeze. The radar shots and graphs seem like I would be soaked putting the trash out but noop. #perplexed
open a can of spam turn out the lights go out on the porch eat in a cold rain it will feel like the real thing in no time you might need a battery operated fan for that wind blowing effect
Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Sep 2016 02:09 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, located just inland over northeastern Florida, at 11 PM EDT.

10-4-1.
Quoting 528. Oxfordvalley:

Fixed. But still, would that be a first?


To form, I'm not sure... but intensification over land has happened before... I remember in particular, Tropical Storm Erin in 2007. Made landfall in Texas, weakened to a depression, then rapidly intensified near Oklahoma City....
Assuming 93L becomes Julia and dies pretty quickly... it looks very likely that 95L is going to be named Karl.


Most models are now in agreement of taking 95L/Karl on an Ike- or Isabel- like track while strengthening to a powerful hurricane in the CATL and not recurving. Be VERY scared. This storm absolutely has the potential to break The Streak and cause immense damage here at home.
Close to tropical storm conditions at Mayport No big pressure drop though.
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, located just inland over northeastern Florida, at 11 PM EDT.
You will likely see the timeline of Julia moved back in post season analysis to show this was a TS 12 hours earlier and a TD since early this morning.
If you find this 240hr forecast interesting, I can draw you up other scenarios that will NEVER play out. I really don't understand so many peoples fascination with these long term forecasts that serve no purpose.
Quoting 515. JohnCaesar:

Interesting scenario from EURO



Julia!!!
Quoting 530. George1938:

-Just going to say before going- We have all looked through historic records and it very soon. If not this year, the next few. A major hurricane will strike. Places like Georgia (Ironically New England gets more majors then them...) Eventually the luck runs out regardless of how long it runs.


I hope you're not right about this, but I have a bad feeling you probably are.
Wow sustained winds of 190 MPH and Gusts up to 230 MPH just scary...
Quoting 534. HurricaneFan:

Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Sep 2016 02:09 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, located just inland over northeastern Florida, at 11 PM EDT.

10-4-1.

I have a bad feeling about 95L... Jeff Masters and Henson say that storms can't form that far north above the MDR (50W/20N rule) and still go west but both Ike and Isabel made that "rule" look very silly... I have a bad feeling...
Quoting 536. DakZekeDez:

Assuming 93L becomes Julia and dies pretty quickly... it looks very likely that 95L is going to be named Karl.


Most models are now in agreement of taking 95L/Karl on an Ike- or Isabel- like track while strengthening to a powerful hurricane in the CATL and not recurving. Be VERY scared. This storm absolutely has the potential to break The Streak and cause immense damage here at home.


too late we all ready had a hurricane land fall this year
Quoting 542. SSL1441:



I hope you're not right about this, but I have a bad feeling you probably are.

95L... look at the model runs... Isabel/Ike like track
Quoting 536. DakZekeDez:

Assuming 93L becomes Julia and dies pretty quickly... it looks very likely that 95L is going to be named Karl.


Most models are now in agreement of taking 95L/Karl on an Ike- or Isabel- like track while strengthening to a powerful hurricane in the CATL and not recurving. Be VERY scared. This storm absolutely has the potential to break The Streak and cause immense damage here at home.


Let's not put the cart before the horse. There's still a long ways to go yet before we even need to focus on this thing, much less be worried about it.
look for Tropical storm warnings to go up for FL at 11pm
And where is aqua?
Quoting 527. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its on the beach

as per COD at 02z


If she decides to stick a toe in the water, NHC will crown her Julia.
Quoting 540. stormjake:

If you find this 240hr forecast interesting, I can draw you up other scenarios that will NEVER play out. I really don't understand so many peoples fascination with these long term forecasts that serve no purpose.



Have you checked the models? All but one or two show no recurve now, most show a temporary NW movement, and then a sharp bend back to the west pointing just north of the northernmost Leeward Islands.
Quoting 545. thetwilightzone:



too late we all ready had a hurricane land fall this year

We had hurricane landfalls in the US in 2012, 2011, 2008, 2007... that's not the streak.


The important streak is we haven't had a major hurricane landfall since October 2005, and that could end with 95L.
an overland tropical storm is borne a first that I've ever seen and I have been tracking storms since 1979

LOL is 93L that ULL that we where tracking when it was closer too PR? last week?
555. IDTH
How does the name Karl strike you guys?

This was the last one:



Looks like Jacksonville will have it's first ocean-falling cyclone in recorded history.
Quoting 548. SSL1441:



Let's not put the cart before the horse. There's still a long ways to go yet before we even need to focus on this thing, much less be worried about it.

let me dig up some archives... I'm sure we all said this back when we were still dealing with the wake of Gustav and little Hanna was threatening the east coast.
558. RM706
Quoting 533. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

open a can of spam turn out the lights go out on the porch eat in a cold rain it will feel like the real thing in no time you might need a battery operated fan for that wind blowing effect


Awesome! If you're going to have a storm, this is the one to have.
Quoting 552. DakZekeDez:


We had hurricane landfalls in the US in 2012, 2011, 2008, 2007... that's not the streak.


The important streak is we haven't had a major hurricane landfall since October 2005, and that could end with 95L.


you can add 2016 too your list has Hermine was a hurricane at land fall in FL
Not to sound like STORMTOP but I think that 95L will be a problem...definitely something to watch...
Quoting 555. IDTH:

How does the name Karl strike you guys?

This was the last one:



And the one before that? A strong cat 4 fish storm.
Quoting 515. JohnCaesar:

Interesting scenario from EURO


From the looks of that, the next frame should be taking the 961mb L off to NE. See the Trof/troughs?

Too far out to spend any more energy on.
Quoting 559. thetwilightzone:



you can add 2016 too your list has Hermine was a hurricane at land fall in FL

yes taz, but that wasn't the point. The point is that 95L might break the streak so many meteorologists and wishcasters alike have been dying to see: the long-awaited, multi-digit year dearth of a CONUS major landfall.
I know Elena was first named over Cuba in 1985 and Hurricane Danny became a tropical storm over land again in North Carolina in 1997.
Quoting 562. Barefootontherocks:

From the looks of that, the next frame should be taking the 961mb L off to NE. See the Trof/troughs?

Too far out to spend any more energy on.


It has moved past the weakness in that frame.
Quoting 562. Barefootontherocks:

From the looks of that, the next frame should be taking the 961mb L off to NE. See the Trof/troughs?

Too far out to spend any more energy on.

Not sure... 1026 is pretty strong for a high, any stronger and it could even take the Ike like bend back WSW...
Somebody is already spamming the blog with doom I see...
Quoting 565. Hurricanes101:



It has moved past the weakness in that frame.

Yes, it's Ike or Andrew time from there.
Quoting 564. TheBigBanana:

I know Elena was first named over Cuba in 1985 and Hurricane Danny became a tropical storm over land again in North Carolina.


Opal became a TD while over the Yucatan in 1995
Quoting 550. Barefootontherocks:

And where is aqua?If she decides to stick a toe in the water, NHC will crown her Julia.


Apparently the latter is already the case
Quoting 556. CosmicEvents:

Looks like Jacksonville will have it's first ocean-falling cyclone in recorded history.
Oh man. I'm laughing tears.
Quoting 566. DakZekeDez:


Not sure... 1026 is pretty strong for a high, any stronger and it could even take the Ike like bend back WSW...
TY for the reply. As I said, too far out to spend any more energy on.
Quoting 556. CosmicEvents:

Looks like Jacksonville will have it's first ocean-falling cyclone in recorded history.

Cause tonight we're gonna party like it's 1999!!!!

Just wind and rain...nothing to see here folks...just like 'egadsoblob' nothing to get worked up about
Wishcasters may finally be let out of the box with 95L
The advisory is out.


TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 556. CosmicEvents:

Looks like Jacksonville will have it's first ocean-falling cyclone in recorded history.


Okay. That made me laugh.
Quoting 567. washingtonian115:

Somebody is already spamming the blog with doom I see...


I hit the ignore just because of the name

Not so fast. It's been inland since Daytona. Maybe it's the first St Johns River-falling cyclone in Jacksonville :)
Quoting 556. CosmicEvents:

Looks like Jacksonville will have it's first ocean-falling cyclone in recorded history.

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...
...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Ponte Vedra Beach,
Florida, northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
ROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with
the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right
of much of the objective track guidance. That trend is forecast to
continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to
the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the
HWRF. With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly
shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change
in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and
begins to weaken. Nevertheless, a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along
the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains
could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data
during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the
curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a
result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on
Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across
northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 30.3N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1200Z 31.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 31.8N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 32.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 32.3N 82.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
Quoting 565. Hurricanes101:



It has moved past the weakness in that frame.
Thanks for the reply. Depends on which way it's moving. :) Once again, too far out to spend any more energy on "."
Julia flew out of nowhere. Kinda like Claudette
Quoting 464. K8eCane:



I have seen this happen before. If conditions are right and the center remains close enough to shore. I saw one intensify after traveling inland several hundred miles, by going over some virginia swamp land.
It's also been over the St Johns River
Quoting 492. Grothar:






I want it more weeeeeest :\\
Quoting 529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

rewrite everything all new designated rules you know sign of the times lets make it all a three ring circus


you are too late for the three ring circus part.
Quoting 456. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Weeesst...




Hopefully enough to reach 18N 63W !
Just got home from a dinner out with family, pull up WU forecast:

Wednesday, Thursday: Tropical Storm Conditions Likely

Wait... what? Julia was definitely unexpected.
Quoting 582. Loduck:

It's also been over the St Johns River


It will also be traversing the Okefenokee Swamp.
drop a cow on julia it cheated

Quoting 553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

an overland tropical storm is borne a first that I've ever seen and I have been tracking storms since 1979




There was one, just before you started tracking:

Tropical Storm Christine was the easternmost forming Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. Forming as a tropical depression over the country of Guinea on August 25, 1973, the system tracked nearly due west for several days before intensifying into a tropical storm on August 28. However, the National Hurricane Center did not issue their first advisory on the system until its intensity was confirmed by a reconnaissance aircraft on August 30.

See, the NHC was simply following precedence set in 1973 regarding land-forming tropical cyclones ;)
Maybe they will circumnavigate in the future...
Quoting 546. DakZekeDez:


95L... look at the model runs... Isabel/Ike like track

...or hurricane Luis (1995)?
Quoting 550. Barefootontherocks:

And where is aqua?If she decides to stick a toe in the water, NHC will crown her Julia.
its whatever NHC says it is no matter what I or anyone may think
Quoting 590. Abacosurf:

Maybe they will circumnavigate in the future...



A landfalling TC from the north in Siberia?
Activity will just keep heating up through mid October. I see more then the 15 named storms I expected before the season started probably more like 16-18 but ACE may still be average or just slightly above.
Julia, you're one of a kind. Watch out for falling cows.

Off to bed I go.

Quoting 524. SSL1441:


If that verifies, we better hope that ridge breaks down fairly quickly.


By that look you'd think it would shoot the gap between the highs.

Quoting 555. IDTH:

How does the name Karl strike you guys?

This was the last one:






If a storm ever did become Karl and became strong and posed a threat to N America, all I'd think of would be the Walking Dead meme
But yet the Rain With No Name wasn't classifiable
Quoting 590. Abacosurf:

Maybe they will circumnavigate in the future...



That would be terrifying, although I'd expect the equator would put the breaks on that.
Quoting 570. win1gamegiantsplease:



Apparently the latter is already the case
LOL. You (or wu) removed KOTG's graphic from the quote, so looks like aqua was crowned Julia. Why not?
:)
Quoting 599. pingon:




The cone looks like a lightbulb.
barefoot if you're still here- yes I am driving home in the eye of JULIA!! hahaha this is so silly.

BUT- it did blow down my shelves and all my beloved potted plants on my back porch.

Jacksonville will be ok, folks. We're survivors.
Really Atlantic?
Quoting 595. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Activity will just keep heating up through mid October. I see more then the 15 named storms I expected before the season started probably more like 16-18 but ACE may still be average or just slightly above.



agreed we may soon sure past the E PAC has we are only 2 named storms be hide them
Why does 95L start so HIGH :\\
Quoting 592. TheBigBanana:



In NE Jacksonville and it actually sound like this thing is getting some legs....winds r slowly picking up and the rain is increasing...still nothing more than a rainmaker but enough to keep me awake 


the NHC may be looking at some storm at post season and see if they meet for a upgrade at season end


like that no named storm that hit LA or may be TD 8 so we may see more named storms added too the list after the season ends so will see
My family in Jacksonville couldn't believe when I told them just a few minutes ago there is a Tropical Storm right over them, they just thought it was some nasty storms passing by lol.


Fish :\\
Quoting 602. aquak9:

barefoot if you're still here- yes I am driving home in the eye of JULIA!! hahaha this is so silly.

BUT- it did blow down my shelves and all my beloved potted plants on my back porch.

Jacksonville will be ok, folks. We're survivors.
don't forget get some batteries and a couple of cans of spam at the store before ya get too the door
In terms of 95L, the future storm will NOT be a Caribbean bound one (IMO)
So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?
Quoting 601. AldreteMichael:



The cone looks like a lightbulb.
maybe a double question mark u looking at it wrong
Then why can't we get a solid disturbance developing near 10N 50W instead of these high latitude trash storms
Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?


land fall in FL lol
hey keeper- this is SO ridiculous, I mean it's really already OVER for the Jacksonville area. (rolls eyes) -

but I did lose some beloved pots and plants. I mean, really pretty glazed ceramic pots and plants that I truly loved.
Quoting 86. leofarnsworth:

The children at the NHC and their models have done it again. As a business owner in Daytona Beach, Florida with an oceanfront business: I blew it by thinking they had a handle on 93L. I was wrong. Anecdotal reports seem to say we are at or about to have a tropical storm. Where is the TS Watch? From Flagler Beach to southern Georgia...

TOLD YA!
Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?
I think maybe classified as a forming landfalled tropical cyclone
I duh know anymore
Quoting 583. CaribBoy:



I want it more weeeeeest :\\


Stop being a Karl-caster :)
Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?




Northern Duval County, FL?

Quoting 616. aquak9:

hey keeper- this is SO ridiculous, I mean it's really already OVER for the Jacksonville area. (rolls eyes) -

but I did lose some beloved pots and plants. I mean, really pretty glazed ceramic pots and plants that I truly loved.

A ASWe will rebuild!!!
622. FOREX
Quoting 611. juracanpr1:

In terms of 95L, the future storm will NOT be a Caribbean bound one (IMO)
Fish?
Quoting 618. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think maybe classified as a forming landfalled tropical cyclone
I duh know anymore


again, should have been classified early this morning while over water. You will see that in post season analysis. NHC was playing catch up with this one, but this system has been a TS since this morning
So if the storm forms over land - was the land struck by the storm? This is kind of a chicken/egg thing - isn't it?

Quoting 616. aquak9:

hey keeper- this is SO ridiculous, I mean it's really already OVER for the Jacksonville area. (rolls eyes) -

but I did lose some beloved pots and plants. I mean, really pretty glazed ceramic pots and plants that I truly loved.
ahh sorry for the lost its ok maybe put it thur the insurance and pick out some real fancier ones after its all said and done you know some nice gold rimmed ones
Are you happy now? :):)






Man the way these storms are anymore it seems like we have been catapulted into the twilight zone for real....Everything is sooooo strange
Quoting 550. Barefootontherocks:

And where is aqua?If she decides to stick a toe in the water, NHC will crown her Julia.


It was on the beach right at my house in Ponte Vedra Beach - and seemed to intensify right over my head with rain and wind a while ago. But now it has settled down to a light rain and just breezy with a few gusts.

Am wondering why Aqua isn't on also - she lives inland of me - hope she is OK
Quoting 620. SavannahStorm:





Northern Duval County, FL?




I think instead of dropping cows, Taz dropped something else on ya!
Quoting 611. juracanpr1:

In terms of 95L, the future storm will NOT be a Caribbean bound one (IMO)


You're looking for a turn to the northwest after just barely grazing the Lesser Antilles, then?
Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?
The NHC will probably say Julia formed 6-12 hours earlier in their postseason report.
Tri-Blob

Quoting 620. SavannahStorm:





Northern Duval County, FL?




Where ever it was when they named it would have to be the immediate landfall i would think????
Quoting 624. daddyjames:

So if the storm forms over land - was the land struck by the storm? This is kind of a chicken/egg thing - isn't it?


yes it is now a paradox
Quoting 614. CaribBoy:

Then why can't we get a solid disturbance developing near 10N 50W instead of these high latitude trash storms

because the world doesn't revolve around you.
Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?


I think it might technically be called an ocean-falling tropical system.
Quoting 394. SavannahStorm:





Okefenokee "brown ocean effect?"


I'm going to call it landfall at Waycross, GA after traversing the "inland sea" of the Okefenokee Swamp.
It is pouring here in Largo now lol

Saw that weather moving in from the Gulf.
Julia - amazing !!!
Quoting 629. daddyjames:



I think instead of dropping cows, Taz dropped something else on ya!


Cow patties?
Quoting 624. daddyjames:

So if the storm forms over land - was the land struck by the storm? This is kind of a chicken/egg thing - isn't it?




Post season analysis will show Julia formed before making landfall
Quoting 604. thetwilightzone:




agreed we may soon sure past the E PAC has we are only 2 named storms be hide them


Yes but we are actually still 6 storms behind the East Pacific they are going on to the P storm still some catching up to do over the coming weeks
Quoting 602. aquak9:

barefoot if you're still here- yes I am driving home in the eye of JULIA!! hahaha this is so silly.

BUT- it did blow down my shelves and all my beloved potted plants on my back porch.

Jacksonville will be ok, folks. We're survivors.


Waving from soggy Ponte Vedra Beach - Hi Aqua!

Glad to see you made it to the blog for our tropical storm!
(waves madly at pvbeachbum)

I'm alive! I'm not dead yet!

I'm getting better!!!
Quoting 602. aquak9:

barefoot if you're still here- yes I am driving home in the eye of JULIA!! hahaha this is so silly.

BUT- it did blow down my shelves and all my beloved potted plants on my back porch.

Jacksonville will be ok, folks. We're survivors.
Thanks. Glad to see your comment. Sorry about the plants. They will survive even if the pots didn't.
julia - amazing
Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?

DeLand Fl. Link
Quoting 627. K8eCane:

Man the way these storms are anymore it seems like we have been catapulted into the twilight zone for real....Everything is sooooo strange




Quoting 644. aquak9:

(waves madly at pvbeachbum)

I'm alive! I'm not dead yet!

I'm getting better!!!


Glad you made it home safe Aqua - sorry about the plant pots - hopefully you can salvage the plants...
Quoting 641. Hurricanes101:



Post season analysis will show Julia formed before making landfall
more than likely at 11 am it should of went up but why who knows
anything can happen I guess.
This is just baffling me. So we waited so long for hermine to form- a LONG time, and now this thing goes from nothing to TS. Is it "stacked"? Do we know a center of circulation? I am so confused
Quoting 640. SavannahStorm:



Cow patties?


Lord, I hope not.
Quoting 602. aquak9:

barefoot if you're still here- yes I am driving home in the eye of JULIA!! hahaha this is so silly.

BUT- it did blow down my shelves and all my beloved potted plants on my back porch.

Jacksonville will be ok, folks. We're survivors.


Make sure to forward that to the NHC, so they can include it in the damage report!
Quoting 652. hurrikanehunter14:

This is just baffling me. So we waited so long for hermine to form- a LONG time, and now this thing goes from nothing to TS. Is it "stacked"? Do we know a center of circulation? I am so confused


Hope I didn't break the blog.

I really think the NHC has a very worn-out dart board at this point.
do u think Julia will loop and go back s sw.
KEEPER that sound byte was nice. Im saving that file. Almost make out the profile of a soldier in those clouds. Nice
Quoting 614. CaribBoy:

Then why can't we get a solid disturbance developing near 10N 50W instead of these high latitude trash storms
We will have to vet these two systems carefully. At the end of the day, I don't want anybody doubling down and waiting for a retraction. That being said, here is a picture of 95L and ? Having said that, I will say no more and leave it up to the will of the people.


Quoting 618. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think maybe classified as a forming landfalled tropical cyclone
I duh know anymore
LOL. Nobody knows, especially not John Q public, and that's the problem. More confusion than a barrel of toads.

My theory for the screwy Atlantic is convection and moisture is spread over a larger area, not so concentrated. Same with the heat.
Quoting 553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

an overland tropical storm is borne a first that I've ever seen and I have been tracking storms since 1979




Arthur formed over land, did he not?
Just ironic that Julia "forms" this way in Florida, when halfway around the word the tiny island, Itbayat, becomes encircled by Super Typhoon Meranti.
Weakening Flag ON
RAPID DISP FLAG FLAG
16W
Hello? Did I break the blog?
Could be some ugly flooding in Brunswick/St. Simons this morning with high tide at 6:30. Lots of heavy rain to go for them.

Quoting 612. daddyjames:

So, technically since Julia is inland and expected to remain inland, does this count as a "land-falling" tropical storm? If so, where exactly?
Yes.
671. LBAR
Julia was obviously on RADAR by the 11 am advisory time frame. It's baffling why they waited so long.
HaHaHaHaHaHaHa...oh that's funny...and it's not even moving NW....HaHaHaHaHa 10%...0%...40%.....
From the Houston-Galveston NWS office ... Baytown, Texas (just east of Houston) has had 167.75 inches of rain so far this year. THAT MUST BE A TYPO.

Average by this time of year would be 40.75 inches. Average for the whole year is 59.92 over the last 30 years.
Quoting 667. SavannahStorm:

Hello? Did I break the blog?


Do you live in Savannah I guess?
Caught by blog hiccup.
Quoting 665. Barefootontherocks:

Just ironic that Julia "forms" this way in Florida, when halfway around the word the tiny island, Itbayat, becomes encircled by Super Typhoon Meranti.


That's it! The folks at the NHC were distracted like the rest of us.
Prolly coaching the newer folks and interns: "That's what a hurricane really looks like . . . . "
Quoting 674. hurrikanehunter14:



Do you live in Savannah I guess?


That would be safe to say. Wilmington Island to be specific.
Quoting 618. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think maybe classified as a forming landfalled tropical cyclone
I duh know anymore


Much of Florida is difficult to classify as "land" - perplexed as well.
Quoting 670. HurricaneAndre:
Yes.
Now answer the rest of the question from DaddyJames: if so, where???
Local met just stated he believed the last time a TS formed on land was
Beryl in 1988 over LA.
Looks like the resto crews will be heading back to N. FL.
Taiwan is getting slammed...hard.
Quoting 666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Weakening Flag ON
RAPID DISP FLAG FLAG
16W



Wow, always looks weird when those mountains do their thing.

As for Julia, wasn't expecting that after the special announcement earlier. I think it may have been a TD just before landfall though, it did show up on nullschool very suddenly over the Bahamas, when there was no low circulation the day before, and since they had already written it off, so hadn't checked back on it thinking it was not going to organise in any way. What I reckon anyway!


edit: ahhh just looked back a page and see others already reckoned that too, nevermind :)
Quoting 679. bappit:

Now answer the rest of the question from DaddyJames: if so, where???
OK Jacksonville Florida.
Quoting 655. daddyjames:


Make sure to forward that to the NHC, so they can include it in the damage report!

bwahahaha too bad it happened before they issued the watches and warnings-

I'm telling ya'll... it's just some rain, ok? we got 2" over the past 24 hours. That's it. I drove home in the eye. Had to use the intermittent speed on the wipers.
Quoting 673. bappit:

From the Houston-Galveston NWS office ... Baytown, Texas (just east of Houston) has had 167.75 inches of rain so far this year.

Average by this time of year would be 40.75 inches. Average for the whole year is 59.92 over the last 30 years.

That is a total from the start of 2015 until now. Still an amazing total though.

.CLIMATE...
Going through some rainfall data tonight and much of the area has
had some impressive rainfall totals. 2016 rainfall at Cypress,
Houston Westbury, Houston Bush and Baytown have all exceeded their
normal annual (1981-2010) rainfall and it`s only mid September.
Since January 1st 2015, Baytown has received 167.75 inches of rain
which is 67.08 inches above normal over the roughly 21 month
period. This location is averaging about 8 inches of rain per
month over the last 21 months. 43
Quoting 623. Hurricanes101:



again, should have been classified early this morning while over water. You will see that in post season analysis. NHC was playing catch up with this one, but this system has been a TS since this morning


If the NHC goes by the ATCF file they have for 93L, it was a TD just off-shore of Port St. Lucie, but did not become a TS until inland just off the Space Coast Parkway.

AL, 93, 2016091306, , BEST, 0, 273N, 802W, 30, 1012, TD
AL, 93, 2016091312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 808W, 35, 1010, TS
AL, 93, 2016091318, , BEST, 0, 290N, 813W, 35, 1010, TS
AL, 93, 2016091400, , BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS

The locations of Julia, as she strolled up the coast (plotted using Google maps). Prolly just as accurate as anything else at this point :D.





Another central antilles trash?
Quoting 685. aquak9:


bwahahaha too bad it happened before they issued the watches and warnings-

I'm telling ya'll... it's just some rain, ok? we got 2" over the past 24 hours. That's it. I drove home in the eye. Had to use the intermittent speed on the wipers.



Intermittent wipers? that sounds like cat 1 hurricane conditions ;) . . .
95L is boring on the 00z GFS


Ok...
95L will be another Ingrid :\\
As I stated earlier, I rarely disagree with the NHC, and I'm sure many here can testify for that, and I had good scientific reasons for disagreeing with them. For those who are joking about a lack of the severity of the system(while definitely funny) as an argument for the NHC not needing to issue it earlier is a poor argument if used for anything besides some fun and joking. The reason why is that it's not about damage in this case, and it never was, my argument was about scientific accuracy by purpose of TC classification.

Now it doesn't mean that if I disagree with them that I must be right, that would be utterly laughable lol. My point of stating such was that because I rarely disagree with them, and because when I disagree my goal is accuracy, not attention, I don't object to something the NHC says unless something stands out to me. Now there was a time when I drastically disagreed with an NHC forecast a couple years back for a hurricane and I was dead wrong and they were right. So I'm not saying my objection has any greater value, rather, I don't object to get attention. I try my best to forward the science as the NHC does, that occasionally leads to disagreement, as I'm willing to bet it did among forecasters at NHC itself today and at the local NWS offices.
695. Ed22
Quoting 669. Patrap:




Low Level Center could be on the coast and could get sucked underneath the refiring convection just off shore the coast of Florida now.
The two systems within the Philippines Area of Responsibility advisories.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophyical and Astronomical Services Administration
11:00 AM PhST September 14 2016
======================
Typhoon "FERDIE" has continued to move in a northwest direction and expected to exit the Philippine Area Of Responsibility within the next two to three hours.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ferdie (MERANTI) [930 hPa] located at 21.7N 120.4E or 215 km northwest of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
----------------------
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 4.1 - 14.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
----------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------------
1. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

The typhoon is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility between 11AM - 1 PM today.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal elsewhere are now lowered.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.

------------------------------------------------- --

Typhoon "GENER" maintains its strength as it moves in a northwest direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Gener (MALAKAS) [972 hPa] located at 15.7N 133.0E or 1,225 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 14 knots.

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 694. Jedkins01:

As I stated earlier, I rarely disagree with the NHC, and I'm sure many here can testify for that, and I had good scientific reasons for disagreeing with them. For those who are joking about a lack of the severity of the system as an argument for the NHC not needing to issue it earlier is a poor argument. The reason why is that it's not about damage in this case, and it never was, my argument was about scientific accuracy by purpose of TC classification.

Now it doesn't mean that if I disagree with them that I must be right, that would be utterly laughable lol. My point of stating such was that because I rarely disagree with them, and because when I disagree my goal is accuracy, not attention, I don't object to something the NHC says unless something stands out to me. Now there was a time when I drastically disagreed with an NHC forecast a couple years back for a hurricane and I was dead wrong and they were right. So I'm not saying my objection has any greater value, rather, I don't object to get attention. I try my best to forward the science as the NHC does, that occasionally leads to disagreement, as I'm willing to bet it did among forecasters at NHC itself today and at the local NWS offices.


Well, since I was the one in disagreement with you, its all good. Basically, both the points we we arguing (in debate format) were covered in the statement last issued by the NHC. There was a closed low (as weak as it was) and they were looking for some consistency. In essence, I am sure the discussion we were having was identical to the one they at the NHC were having.

In no way did I mean any disrespect to either you, or to TA13, and I hope neither one of you interpreted it that way.
This is my concern for Tropical Storm Julia, a slow moving tropical storm trapped underneath a ridge and dumping flooding rains. This is rainfall totals for just 60 hours.

Some tide gauges. St. Simons and Fort Pulaski could have some minor flooding at high tide at 6:30 am. It's low tide now.

Fernandina Beach

St. Simons Island

Fort Pulaski
Quoting 602. aquak9:

barefoot if you're still here- yes I am driving home in the eye of JULIA!! hahaha this is so silly.

BUT- it did blow down my shelves and all my beloved potted plants on my back porch.

Jacksonville will be ok, folks. We're survivors.


RIP plants, Jacksonville will rebuild, we won't forget 9/13/2016.

Be careful, you could get hit by flying leaves out there!
HWRF is also running on Julia too. Heads up SC.

Quoting 700. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is my concern for Tropical Storm Julia, a slow moving tropical storm trapped underneath a ridge and dumping flooding rains. This is rainfall totals for just 60 hours.




At least most of the worst is offshore.
Quoting 699. daddyjames:



Well, since I was the one in disagreement with you, its all good. Basically, both the points we we arguing (in debate format) were covered in the statement last issued by the NHC. There was a closed low (as weak as it was) and they were looking for some consistency. In essence, I am sure the discussion we were having was identical to the one they at the NHC were having.

In no way did I mean any disrespect to either you, or to TA13, and I hope neither one of you interpreted it that way.


Nope don't worry! I think our disagreement was civil, unlike a lot of disagreements on this blog often are lol. I do understand why they were hesitant as naming a system after it moves inland just seems too weird, but they did end up doing it, which sort of makes me happy I guess since I was waiting for it to happen earlier, lol.


Haw! Haw! Haw! Look at the question mark in this graphic.
The moon is getting fuller and it's getting closer too. At 145 mph. Could give the tides an extra kick.
Quoting 704. SunnyDaysFla:



At least most of the worst is offshore.
Yeah, a pretty fast upper level jet from Texas through the Tennessee River Valley and towards the Mid-Atlantic is imposing some southwesterly shear aloft, hence why you see most of the colder cloud-tops offshore. Because the center is very close to the shore it's possible for most of the activity to stay offshore, but if the shear relaxes, it may allow for the system to become more symmetrical and wrap around more rain bands.
Not sure if my eyes are fooling me, but if I'm viewing radar right...did that center just jump back east...thereby placing it offshore? May allow for a little bit of intensification if that is indeed the case.
The doppler radar out of Jacksonville is less coherent now. Was a well defined couplet earlier. Maybe the center is reforming as tropicfreak suggests?
On the other side of the world:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140534
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda, and on
newly formed Tropical Storm Julia, located over northeastern
Florida.

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Surface observations and
satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low has become
better defined during the past several hours, but the associated
shower activity remains disorganized. Slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
late this week. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 460. SSL1441:



Boy if that thing doesn't move farther north, China is in for it... big time.. wow...
Quoting 424. hydrus:




Great example of the land-friction phenomenon. I'm sure southern Taiwan felt some incredible gusts at higher elevations.
is Julia gonna loop and go back s sw there is big ridge that its gonna run into soon.
Quoting 714. markot:

is Julia gonna loop and go back s sw there is big ridge that its gonna run into soon.
That's a possibility
it looks like it may make that loop its heading more east.
Testing the blog....
718. FOREX
Quoting 717. KuCommando:

Testing the blog....
test test 123757575757 tetetesststssttsst
um...there is only ten comments since 6:30 this morning?
Quoting 717. KuCommando:

Testing the blog....

Just had to break the almost 8 hour silence, didn't ya? ;)
So the blog is finally working?
one of the Longest blog outages ive seen here..blogs Back folks
Man, just a little bit of a named wind at the doorsteps of the US - and IBM's mighty Watson passes out, ummm ...
TD12 is here... (blog test)
I'm tired of those high latitude trash !

TD12 already at 17N :\

Next wave should be a fish :\\

Ian was a fish

Gaston was a fish

Fiona was a fish

Too many fishes !
Really cruising up the coast.
Ode to Julia...
"Half of what I say is meaningless
But I say it just to reach you, Julia
Julia, Julia, ocean child, calls me
So I sing a song of love, Julia
Julia, seashell eyes, windy smile, calls me
So I sing a song of love, Julia"
~ The Beatles
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
If TD12 can miss the trough in mid-Atlantic, it should be very close to the northern Antilles next week. Needles to say, we will watch this closely.


And according to 12z GFS no significant rain for us :(

Quoting 726. CaribBoy:

I'm tired of those high latitude trash !

TD12 already at 17N :\

Next wave should be a fish :\\

Ian was a fish

Gaston was a fish

Fiona was a fish

Too many fishes !

As opposed to what? death, destruction, misery, and massive cleanups? I'm glad we see a lot of fishes. I still don't get the wish casters.
4 recent typhoons to be given 'extreme severity' designation

TOKYO —
The government said Wednesday it will designate a series of four recent typhoons as a disaster of extreme severity, allowing affected communities to receive higher subsidies from the central government for reconstruction work.

The typhoons Chanthu, Mindulle, Lionrock and Kompasu will be grouped as one disaster, according to the Cabinet Office.


Link
Taipei, Sept. 14 (CNA) Tropical Storm Malakas has strengthened into a typhoon and is expected to come closest to Taiwan on Saturday, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said Wednesday.

Link

Malakas is also headed for Japan.
Typhoons striking China and Southeast Asia have become much stronger
And they're likely to get worse

Link
Quoting 727. Sfloridacat5:

Really cruising up the coast.

Looks like its really stuck in one spot.
Quoting 726. CaribBoy:

I'm tired of those high latitude trash !

TD12 already at 17N :\

Next wave should be a fish :\\

Ian was a fish

Gaston was a fish

Fiona was a fish

Too many fishes !

Yep, year of the multiple FISHES
I read that Dr Masters has a new blog ..wondering why I am unable to see it?
Anyone else having issues with that?
742. jjmet
Issues with Dr. Masters new blog here as well. Unable to see it.
The missing blog entry.
Quoting 727. Sfloridacat5:

Really cruising up the coast.


Looks like the center however is sitting in the same spot, and mostly offshore which might mean strengthening.
Quoting 742. jjmet:

Issues with Dr. Masters new blog here as well. Unable to see it.


I was able to access the new entry by going to the blog directory and clicking on it from there.
Not sure why its like that this time around
747. vis0

Quoting 309. SPShaw:


Unfortunately, it was over the island at 3 in the morning.

Quoting 330. allancalderini:

Its not tradition its part of the definition of what a tropical cyclone is. You may check it on the glossary of the NHC. if they name this system then the system that develop over LA should have been name too.
"A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center".
so if Andrew had formed over land of The Bahamas there would've been a 48 delay in calling it "Andrew" ...can hear insurers dancing for joy in a situation where keys get hit but since TS formed over Hispaniola it wasn't an "incoming" TS..some work in mysterious ways.
Quoting 726. CaribBoy:

I'm tired of those high latitude trash !

TD12 already at 17N :\

Next wave should be a fish :\\

Ian was a fish

Gaston was a fish

Fiona was a fish

Too many fishes !


Somehow, you leave the impression that you will not be happy until a giant asteroid crashes into Jupiter and knocks the Giant Red Spot storm (yeah I know it's not there atm) clean off the planet and it comes flying to wrap itself right around the earth, and sits and spins for a dozen decades. In the meantime, to satisfy your cravings, why not get a helium balloon and start in with 'cane surfing...? you could make some money off the cams maybe~
Quoting 746. Skyepony:

Here is a link to Jeff Masters' new blog.


thats the old blog
Quoting 749. thetwilightzone:



thats the old blog

It did change again.. The newest Jeff blog as of this moment is here.
Heavy Thunderstorms in North Brevard
752. vis0

Quoting 746. Skyepony:

Here is a link to Jeff Masters' new blog.    (#3429)


but i'm still reading ::

 

Unexpected Tropical Storm Julia Pops Up in Northern Florida; TD 12 Forms | Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (#3428)


 

 

sar2401 and i a few years ago joked aas to Russia and/or China taping into Dr.Masters/ Wunderblogs during SE  UsofA TS or Nor Easters forming in the SE USofA to see how quick those in  the USofA would repair such a needed link.

 

i added maybe if it is an accident its rats or varmints heading inland when they feel LOWs forming near shore and in their haste to eat and run NW they interfere with cables.  Check on NCStorms ants i heard they did not pop up so Julia should stay off shore of NC.

 

Maybe when Chinese official read members warning of a Hurricane hitting China in trying to keep negative  alarming news to a minimum sent a signal to practice shutting a USofA's webnet portal.

 

or see pingon's comment

 

 

 

of course i noticed nom problem since i'm always 2 blogbytes behind. [zilly]WHAT 93L is not going south of CUBA?[zilly]

 

Oh boy i hear GROUNDHOG DAY is coming to Broadway, i can see ticket buyers demanding a refund 5 minutes into the play.
So since Julia formed over land and then went east, she made waterfall in the Atlantic?
Quoting 753. MysteryMeat:

So since Julia formed over land and then went east, she made waterfall in the Atlantic?
Yes and looking at 5 day could cause major fresh water flooding. Go figure.