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Three Non-Threatening Atlantic Invests to Watch: 92L, 93L, and 94L

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 6:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2016

An area of low pressure with a well-defined surface circulation developed on Friday afternoon in the Florida Straits, just east of the Florida Keys. This disturbance had been designated as Invest 92L earlier in the week, but then dropped, once the system lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms. Now, NHC is once more calling this system 92L. Satellite images and long range radar out of Key West show that 92L has well-defined surface circulation center, but almost no heavy thunderstorms. The storm’s heaviest thunderstorms were being kept to the southeast side of the center of circulation by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The disturbance was also battling plenty of dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and the 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model showed the humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere was about 55 - 60%, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a very warm 30°C (86°F), though. Surface winds measured by the ASCAT satellite instrument were as high as 35 mph at 10:28 am EDT Friday.


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of 92L taken early Friday afternoon, September 9, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
There is little model support for the development of 92L, with none of the 00Z Friday operational versions of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, UKMET and European models--predicting development. Only 4% of the 50 ensemble members of the European model predicted development, and none of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble did so. During the next five days, 92L should experience dry mid-level air with a relative humidity of 60 - 65%, and see moderately high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots, as the storm heads west at about 5 mph through the southern Gulf of Mexico, according to the 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model. These conditions are quite marginal for development. In their 2 pm EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40%. 92L will likely bring winds gusts near 40 mph and rain squalls to the Florida Keys Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.

Tropical wave 93L just northeast of Puerto Rico little threat to develop
An area of low pressure located 100 - 200 miles northeast of Puerto Rico on Friday afternoon was headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system was designated Invest 93L by NHC on Thursday morning. Satellite images and long range radar out of Puerto Rico show that 93L has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of a surface circulation center. The disturbance was battling plenty of dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and the 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model showed the humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere was about 45 - 50%, which is normally too dry to support tropical storm formation unless wind shear is very low. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29°C (84°F.)


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of 93L.

Forecast for 93L
There is very little model support for the development of 93L, with none of the 00Z Friday operational versions of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, UKMET and European models--predicting development. Only 8% of the 50 ensemble members of the European model predicted development, and none of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble did so. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 93L would find a moister surrounding atmosphere by Sunday, but that wind shear would grow high, greater than 20 knots, by then. These conditions are quite marginal for development. In their 2 pm EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 10%, respectively. Invest 93L will continue moving west-northwest to northwest at about 15 mph over the next two days, then slow down to a forward speed of about 10 mph on Monday and Tuesday. This should put the storm a few hundred miles southeast of the coast of South Carolina by Tuesday.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of 94L.

Tropical wave 94L in the central tropical Atlantic likely to develop
A large tropical wave midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 94L) was headed west-northwest at 20 mph Friday afternoon. Satellite images showed that 94L was becoming well-organized, with a large circulation and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. With wind shear expected to be in the low to moderate range through Tuesday, along with plenty of warm water and a moist atmosphere with 70% humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere, 94L is likely to develop into a tropical depression by early next week, as predicted our top three models for hurricane genesis, the UKMET, GFS and European models. In their 2 pm EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 80%, respectively. The long-range models are showing 94L will likely be a “fish storm”, and take a west-northwesterly then northwesterly track into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Ian.


Figure 4. NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured this image of Hurricane Gaston (Category 2, 105 mph winds) in the central North Atlantic on August 30, 2016, at 1625Z (12:25 p.m. EDT). Gaston was the only major hurricane of the first half of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, peaking as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on August 29. Image credit: NOAA / NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.

Midpoint review: A fairly active, not-too-destructive Atlantic season
Now that we’re at the climatological midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10 or 11, depending upon which statistics one uses), it’s a good time to review how this season is shaping up. We can compare this season to what one might expect from climatology based on data compiled by Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University). As a climatological benchmark, Klotzbach uses the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010, which is almost evenly split between the pre-1995 inactive period and the post-1995 active period in the Atlantic. Here’s where we stand as of September 9 relative to the amount of activity that an average season would have produced by now:

8 named storms (typical by 9/9 is 6.5)
4 hurricanes (typical by 9/9 is 2.7)
1 major hurricane (typical by 9/9 is 1.2)
40.7 ACE, or accumulated cyclone energy (typical by 9/9 is 46.2)

This season is running a bit below average on ACE, as well as the number of hurricane days and major-hurricane days (not shown here). We are considerably above average on the number of named storms and hurricanes. If we continued the rest of the season at exactly this pace, we'd end up with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 majors. That would line up pretty well with the consensus of the various forecast groups as summarized by Phil Klotzbach. Here again, we're running ahead of the consensus on the number of named storms and hurricanes, but a bit under expectation on the amount of ACE. The four tropical storms this year were all quite weak (Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Fiona). About 60% of the entire season’s ACE thus far--more than every other tropical cyclone combined--was generated by long-lived Hurricane Gaston, which stayed far out to sea. The most destructive Atlantic system of the year thus far, Hurricane Hermine, produced total economic damages that could approach $1 billion.  We’ve had one quite deadly storm this year: Hurricane Earl, which hit Belize as a Category 1 storm on August 4, then made a second landfall on Mexico’s Bay of Campeche coast on August 6. Earl killed 67 people and left 12 others missing; 57 of the fatalities were in Mexico, due to flooding and mudslides.

NOAA: La Niña a no-show
On Thursday, NOAA cancelled its La Niña Watch, as the atmosphere has failed to respond to sea-surface temperatures in the borderline La Niña range. If La Niña indeed fails to materialize, then the rest of the Atlantic season may end up less active than predicted by some of the higher-end outlooks that anticipated La Niña’s emergence.

We'll have an update on Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 254. Grothar:

Who said 92L was dead??


"Not I", said the cat.

588. beell
4:47 PM GMT on September 04, 2016

Just because the GFS does not show obvious development on any random run elected-does not imply it will not develop! It's not a perfect model.

The seed is consistent and can be tracked. Should be enough to hold one's attention for now. Here it is in the western gulf a week from today.



Thanx for the update.
Thanks for the update guys. 92L bears a striking resemblance to 99L in the same location, down to pretty much all the details. The big difference, as carefully noted by the NHC, is that conditions for 92L will not become more favorable as they did for 99L.

It's surprising to me how quiet the basin is. I said 3-5 storms for September a week or so ago. I still think that's very achievable, with 94L likely being the first of those, but we're lacking in "big ticket" action as our ACE count increasingly reflects.
No excitment for me :\
Shear map 1 pm cdt
AL, 92, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 235N, 785W, 20, 1014, LO
AL, 92, 2016090906, , BEST, 0, 238N, 791W, 20, 1014, LO
AL, 92, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 240N, 794W, 25, 1014, LO
AL, 92, 2016090918, , BEST, 0, 241N, 802W, 30, 1013, LO

92L up to 40% now............................................... .......................3. Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Avila

AL, 93, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 179N, 600W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090906, , BEST, 0, 183N, 612W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 185N, 625W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090918, , BEST, 0, 195N, 640W, 20, 1014, DB

Can someone explain how this can't develop? I'm learning a lot from yal and it looks like this is going to hit 10-15 shear when it enters the gulf. Is it that the steering pattern is going to push it due west into higher shear?
Quoting 307. Dakster:



Hey Ped. Got frost warnings for tonight....

You?


Not quite yet...77.2F 11:47PDT Below is for Indian Hills, just NNE of me
Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen....
Quoting 9. Sandcat:

Can someone explain how this can't develop? I'm learning a lot from yal and it looks like this is going to hit 10-15 shear when it enters the gulf. Is it that the steering pattern is going to push it due west into higher shear?


Remember shear maps change over time. Also, the GOM has a lot of dry air right now.

The dark color on this water vapor satellite is dry air. As you can see the GOM is currently very dry. Dry air is also being pushed down across Florida and is affecting the system.

Thanks for the update! Interesting to see Hermine could cause over $1 billion in losses. Imagine what a major hurricane could do with a similar path...

94L is looking nice and should get to at least category 1 hurricane strength and generate a decent amount of ACE. It has the potential to become a major and a Gaston 2.0.

Wouldn't be surprised to see 92L spin up with conditions set to become more favourable. 99L repeat it seems.

93L is the odd ball - generally favourable conditions except dry air and no model support. But you don't need model support to spin up at this time of year especially.

We'll likely have 2-3 named storms form over the next 7-10 days. I suspect we'll see a yellow X tomorrow or even later today for a wave that's predicted to come off Africa early-mid next week. GFS/Euro develop it some.

After a lull, things seem to be picking up again. The second half of September and October are setting up to be very interesting based on the MJO forecast by models.
Interesting that there might be no La Nina...


From the previous blog... Kudos to Costa Rica for their renewable energy use. They are very close to being fossil fuel free for energy.

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/09/09/this-t iny-nation-has-generated-100-of-its-power-without- any-oil/21468926/

Link
This we can throw out since it is supposed to be off South Carolina on Tuesday.? BAMM is useless.

Here's the link someone requested to the CIMSS vorticity maps. Right now 92L is "together" up to 700mb.
850 mb vort

700 mb vort


Shear maps also at that link. Shear tendency dropping west of vort max.
Shear tendency today 1 pm cdt _ OOPS, wrong graphic. BRB

images credit: CIMSS, NOAA
I'm no expert but here's what I think will happen for the rest of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the Climate in general.

Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: I think September is going to run well below average, just based on the basic knowledge of what is happening out in the tropics now. SAL is still plentiful and if these outbreaks continue, the Cape Verde Season will never materialize. Wind Shear, though averaging slightly below normal, has still been the culprit for the demise of many storms that otherwise may have had chances to become bad. As for October, if the same issues carry over from September (Dry air, high wind shear), it'll be the same however we must take into account that homegrown storms are more common in October than in August and September. Could we end up with some systems in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico? Yes but it's just a wait and see game at this point. For November, at this current pacing, I expect the Season to have wrapped up either by late October or at least the first week or so of November. (Again, JUST my opinion)

La Nina: More than likely will end up debuting in 2017. I'd lean more towards Neutral conditions for now through the end of the year. El Nino doesn't appear likely to re-emerge based on all the data that has come out the last few months since it dissipated.

Again, this is all my own opinion and is based on previous data in Dr. Masters blogs and other sources such as NOAA's site, etc.
thank you for the update!

one question if la nina fails to materialize what does this means for our winter season here in the states and florida in particular?
Quoting 14. Dakster:

From the previous blog... Kudos to Costa Rica for their renewable energy use. They are very close to being fossil fuel free for energy.

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/09/09/this-t iny-nation-has-generated-100-of-its-power-without- any-oil/21468926/

Link


I'm confused (easily done), if they are doing more with renewable energy use, why does the article state " So although Costa Rica's fossil fuel usage may have risen this year, its overall record is quite an achievement." ?

Fossil Fuel Useage may have Risen?
CMC model for this coming Wednesday......................................... ................
Quoting 12. Sfloridacat5:



Remember shear maps change over time. Also, the GOM has a lot of dry air right now.

The dark color on this water vapor satellite is dry air. As you can see the GOM is currently very dry. Dry air is also being pushed down across Florida and is affecting the system.


dark air in that images still contains enough vapor for minimum rain the dull orange like dusty color is the inhibit anting area no dev of precip is likely
thanks for update work week almost done heat is gone cool too come

have a great weekend
Quoting 22. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

dark air in that images still contains enough vapor for minimum rain the dull orange like dusty color is the inhibit anting area no dev of precip is likely
the dry air sinking through the southern half of the florida peninsula reminds me of one of those backdoor cold fronts that we have sometimes
Quoting 18. knightwarrior41:

thank you for the update!

one question if la nina fails to materialize what does this means for our winter season here in the states and florida in particular?
it will be neutral or weak nono el nino
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will be neutral or weak nono el nino
does this mean average temps or colder for us?sorry if my question wasnt clear enough
Quoting 21. LargoFl:

CMC model for this coming Wednesday......................................... ................


*STARTS SINGING* THERE SHE GOES AGAIN..........LOL.

I don't think the CMC has ever been right this season, unless I missed something...
Miami Nexrad

Base Radial Velocity

Suppose that would be 93L with 94L off to the east around Bermuda. Quite a stretch, but it is September.

Quoting 21. LargoFl:

CMC model for this coming Wednesday......................................... ................
Key West Nexrad

At 1800 UTC, 09 September 2016, LOW INVEST (AL92) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24.1°N and 80.2°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb.



Not to take away from Louisiana, but Arkansas was also hit hard by last month's flooding:
"Nearly 15-inches of rain inundated Northeast Arkansas in mid-August, and it caused millions of dollars in damage, according to the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. Farmers suffered up to $50 million in row crop losses, and like the river, the costs could rise much higher. Rice farmers could lose $18.6 million alone." - Link

Japan Meteorological Agency
3:00 AM JST September 10 2016
================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

West Of The Mariana Islands
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 14.1N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 16.9N 137.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
51 years ago, The first US Billion Dollar Hurricane.









Update pretty much put a fork in the rest of Hurricane season you guys have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season.
Quoting 20. MiamiNative:



I'm confused (easily done), if they are doing more with renewable energy use, why does the article state " So although Costa Rica's fossil fuel usage may have risen this year, its overall record is quite an achievement." ?

Fossil Fuel Useage may have Risen?


Its not clear, but they are comparing 2015 with 2016. Costa Rica actually did better in 2015 than they have in 2016, so their fossil fuel usage to generate electricity has risen this year as compared with last year..
Quoting 37. help4u:

Update pretty much put a fork in the rest of Hurricane season you guys have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season.


Another Hurricane in the middle of January?
40. IDTH
Quoting 34. Patrap:



Deja vu?
Quoting 37. help4u:

Update pretty much put a fork in the rest of Hurricane season you guys have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season.


Totally baseless comment. Maybe you should find a winter blog.
42. IDTH
Quoting 37. help4u:

Update pretty much put a fork in the rest of Hurricane season you guys have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season.

My thoughts are that it's not winter yet.
Quoting 37. help4u:

Update pretty much put a fork in the rest of Hurricane season you guys have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season.

That was pretty much the concensus around here about this timeframe last year ... then there was Joaquin. It only takes one ...
Quoting 39. daddyjames:



Another Hurricane in the middle of January?

Interesting that while in recent seasons the number of storms during the season peak has decreased, but more storms are forming outside of the season. I would not be surprised at all if we get a storm in December.
Heavy rains and flooding anticipated...
Quoting 34. Patrap:




Runaway LLC? I think the MLC will cruise the north coast of Cuba veering WSW. Eerily close to 99L.
Thanks for the update
Quoting 32. Patrap:

At 1800 UTC, 09 September 2016, LOW INVEST (AL92) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24.1°N and 80.2°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb.






The forward motion of this thing dropped in half. Currently at ~5MPH to the West.

I don't know what it is about this region lately, but these systems seem to love meandering around there.
Quoting 44. HurricaneFan:


Interesting that while in recent seasons the number of storms during the season peak has decreased, but more storms are forming outside of the season. I would not be surprised at all if we get a storm in December.

There is also the "lack of observation" before the sattelite era. There could have been 100 "Alex" type storms before 1960 and we never would've had a clue. Now I very much doubt there were 100 "Alex's" ... but point is still the same.
Invest 94L.
Hi all. Just doing a weekly update on the blog after school. Whew! It has been an interesting week. Hope everyone is doing well. Have a pleasant day!
Shear's shutting down the Atlantic *yawn*


naked little swirl with lots of sheer....haven't we seen this before..rather recently ?? ;)
Quoting 51. Climate175:

Invest 94L.


Here comes the wave I mentioned this morning off Africa. Shouldnt be surprised to get another X by tonight or tomorrow.
Quoting 21. LargoFl:

CMC model for this coming Wednesday......................................... ................

CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones

I see it hasn't lost its' touch for DOOM-casting.
Quoting 55. bigwes6844:


Here comes the wave I mentioned this morning off Africa. Shouldnt be surprised to get another X by tonight or tomorrow.
Yea, GFS shows development of that wave too.
MJO pulse is helping Africa produce some nice waves coming through.
Quoting 59. bigwes6844:

MJO pulse is helping Africa produce some nice waves coming through.



Not to be contrary; but i don't see the MJO having any influential effect at all right now:

64. IDTH
Quoting 63. SPShaw:



Not to be contrary; but i don't see the MJO having any influential effect at all right now:



CCKW
Hey, folks, short good evening hello from me. I see, some old new invests keep you occupied. Good ... ;-)

The cut off low in the Mediterranean keeps swirling and annoyed southern Italians and Greeks with new flooding today.
Here a youtube video from Italy/Apulia (unfortunately a farm worker died in this region): Video Link

Meanwhile the very warm or even hot summer weather in central Europe continues - until Thursday when temps should perform a dive into autumn:


Temperature anomaly for the next five days.

Except for the drought, people love the weather (I too): very warm and calm days, but already pleasantly cooler nights.

Here two pics I took this evening at sunset northeast of Frankfurt (Ronneburg) where I had to water our country garden once again ;-)





Have a nice evening, everybody!
Quoting 63. SPShaw:



Not to be contrary; but i don't see the MJO having any influential effect at all right now:



Cyclogenesis is really confusing. Hermine when it was in the same location as 92L, with far more convection, a more moist environment, and lower shear could not develop a closed low level circulation until it got further east. Yet 92L developed one without anyone noticing.

Why is that?
Quoting 67. pipelines:

Cyclogenesis is really confusing. Hermine when it was in the same location as 92L, with far more convection, a more moist environment, and lower shear could not develop a closed low level circulation until it got further east. Yet 92L developed one without anyone noticing.

Why is that?

It's a hoax. :)
This LLC almost over Key West now is getting spat out and will most likely dissipate into the sunset tonight.
Very similar to the 7 LLC's 99L spat out.
Quoting 67. pipelines:

Cyclogenesis is really confusing. Hermine when it was in the same location as 92L, with far more convection, a more moist environment, and lower shear could not develop a closed low level circulation until it got further east. Yet 92L developed one without anyone noticing.

Why is that?



Which is which?





The more hurricane seasons I witness, the less I seem to know about them. Once upon a time there were almost straightforward explanations you could give. Either the atmosphere is becoming more complex with time or the more we know, the less we are able to make sense of it.
Quoting 64. IDTH:


CCKW

Great. Now i have to watch this presentation: :)
"Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves on tropical cyclone cyclogenesis over the eastern north Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins" - video Link
Wednesday, 7 January 2015: 11:00 AM
224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Ventrice
"During the past few years, the real-time monitoring of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has become an important new tool for operational forecasters making tropical cyclone genesis forecasts. However, many questions remain open regarding the use of these atmospheric waves as a means for genesis prediction. While it is useful information to know the state of the MJO, or if a CCKW is nearing a system, quantifying the impact of these waves has been challenging." - Link
Quoting 66. bigwes6844:




So, is this a representation of MJO influence or of CCKW? ...or both?
Quoting 37. help4u:

Update pretty much put a fork in the rest of Hurricane season you guys have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season.


Cold and snowy.
Quoting 73. Dakster:



Cold and snowy.


With a chance of Hurricanes.
Quoting 74. beell:



With a chance of Hurricanes.


No, but those cold core storms are nothing to mess with here. 100 mph+ winds...
Naked swirls are so sexy!
77. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Washington State University (WWLLN)
AOI:: Eastern ATL, with focus to Florida area.
NOTE1:: REMEMBER RAIN is deadliest and SW Florida was under water this last few days...remember a WxU member and i think the Dr Masters or Mr. Henson mentioned the Lake in Florida and how much it could withstand, add to that the already flooded WSW Florida area.
NOTE2:: Though i say "soul" in time science will discover there are energies that can be stored - shared via droplets of moisture that have a "blueprint" as to where the droplets last spun the longest (specially after 3 days. within a individualized)
image host
Quoting 56. jeffs713:


CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones

I see it hasn't lost its' touch for DOOM-casting.


The CMC has few expansions. My favorite is: Can't Model Crap
Quoting 76. washingaway:

Naked swirls are so sexy!



That 40% is going to be lowered.
I am surprised the NHC put such high percentages on 94L to form. The water vapor loop shows a large ULL with a lot of spin diving down due south directly in the path of 94L. The shear from this ULL should lesson for 93L as 93L heads WNW. It looks like the ULL diving down north of the Bahamas is moving fast & may clear out ahead of 93L. 92L may be a good wind shear environment if it can survive the shear from the N Bahamas ULL over the next 24 hours as the ULL looks to move south of it. The ULL heading into Texas looks like it is creating shear from the Central GOM Westward but as it moves further inland, the shear should let up. There is still dry air to contend with. Conditions are currently marginal at best but could improve in a couple of days for 92L & 93L. I don't see 94L doing anything until it gets through the ULL coming down from its north.

Th93L
Last remark from me for today for all those who were interested in the news from the Alps yesterday evening (have a look at the first video in the BBC report: what a stuntman like action!):

French Alps cable cars tourists rescued
BBC, 9 September 2016

BTW, the incident was weather related:
"The cars are believed to have stopped after cables tangled in high winds."

Here some impressions from inside a cabin last night: youtube link.
Seems rather el nioish out in the Atlantic.Shear almost everywhere except for a few pockets and struggling storms.
36 hrs. 92 Barely hanging on heading west.
Eyewall filling in...
Quoting 83. Abacosurf:

36 hrs. 92 Barely hanging on heading west.



Depressing
Quoting 80. GainesvilleGator:

I am surprised the NHC put such high percentages on 94L to form. The water vapor loop shows a large ULL with a lot of spin diving down due south directly in the path of 94L. The shear from this ULL should lesson for 93L as 93L heads WNW. It looks like the ULL diving down north of the Bahamas is moving fast & may clear out ahead of 93L. 92L may be a good wind shear environment if it can survive the shear from the N Bahamas ULL over the next 24 hours as the ULL looks to move south of it. The ULL heading into Texas looks like it is creating shear from the Central GOM Westward but as it moves further inland, the shear should let up. There is still dry air to contend with. Conditions are currently marginal at best but could improve in a couple of days for 92L & 93L. I don't see 94L doing anything until it gets through the ULL coming down from its north.

Th93L


Is this a text version of Three-card Monte?
Quoting 69. beell:




Which is which?







Even water vapor shows the same thing with this 92 as was with the last 92, ULL to the north east and west, yet we did get Hermine. Note the sweet spot in the gulf. Who knows?
Quoting 81. barbamz:

Last remark from me for today for all those who were interested in the news from the Alps yesterday evening (have a look at the first video in the BBC report: what a stuntman like action!):

French Alps cable cars tourists rescued
BBC, 9 September 2016

BTW, the incident was weather related:
"The cars are believed to have stopped after cables tangled in high winds."

Here some impressions from inside a cabin last night: youtube link.



A marvelous rescue!

Although the first thing I thought when you broke the story here yesterday was the sound of a tiny little voice..."Daddy, I gotta go"...
Quoting 86. daddyjames:



Is this a text version of Three-card Monte?
Is Three-card Monte some kind of poker game?
Quoting 87. washingaway:


Even water vapor shows the same thing with this 92 as was with the last 92, ULL to the north east and west, yet we did get Hermine. Note the sweet spot in the gulf. Who knows?



The flanking ULL's are indeed pushing up a narrow upper ridge. That would be 92L's time to shine if it can find that sweet spot.
Quoting 89. Barefootontherocks:

Is Three-card Monte some kind of poker game?


Three-Card monte is the "card game" you often see performed on street corners. It's a "hustle" of sorts.

From Wiki:
Three-card Monte - also known as find the lady and three-card trick - is a confidence game in which the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money, on the assumption that they can find the "money card" among three face-down playing cards. . . .
In its full form, three-card Monte is an example of a classic "short con" in which a shill pretends to conspire with the mark to cheat the dealer, while in fact conspiring with the dealer to cheat the mark. The chances of a mark winning are almost nil against a skilled con artist.
Quoting 88. beell:



A marvelous rescue!

Although the first thing I thought when you broke the story here yesterday was the sound of a tiny little voice..."Daddy, I gotta go"...



Go where?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
514 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

For the short term, the major synoptic feature is a weak area of
low pressure across the Florida Straits. The local LAPS analysis
indicated a weak closed low at 19z and for the last 3 to 4 hours
has indicated an increasing trend in the surface vorticity. This
is consistent with recent visible satellite imagery indicating a
low level swirl with active convection to the southeast.

The forecast for tonight...The general consensus of the global
models and the latest HRRR model as well indicate a general west
to southwest movement of the weak surface low across the Florida
Straits tonight, with recent model guidance consensus indicating
it could be to the southwest of the Florida Keys on Saturday
morning. Regarding any potential for possible tropical formation,
please monitor and consult the products of the National Hurricane
Center. As for any impacts on South Florida as it tracks west to
southwest tonight, expecting bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms to continue radiating outward from the low and
mainly impacting the southern portion of the peninsula and the
adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. With the passage of bands of
showers, brief heavy downpours and gusty winds can be expected.
For any marine impacts, consult the marine discussion below.

Forecast for Saturday and Sunday...

If the aforementioned low continues to track westward as indicated
above, this will result in deep moisture across the region in its
wake with chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.
An upper level low currently east of the Carolinas will likely continue
to retrograde southwest over the weekend and will enhance chances
of showers and thunderstorms, with activity possible across the
Gulf and Atlantic waters as well.

Forecast for early next week...

A weak trough currently east of Puerto Rico is forecast to continue
on a northwest track the next couple of days and is forecast to be
near the central to northwest Bahamas by Monday with an increase
in moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Deep moisture and regional showers and thunderstorms could
linger into mid-week.
Link

circulation of 92L is half over the N coast of Cuba, drifting south for now
Quoting 84. Abacosurf:

Eyewall filling in...



Get a hold of yourself!
:)

Here is the eyewall.

Quoting 92. daddyjames:



Go where?


Exactly.
Quoting 95. beell:



Get a hold of yourself!
:)

Here is the eyewall.




Don't you have to have clouds? Or is this an "invisible" eyewall, rumored to exist, yet never seen?
Quoting 96. beell:



Exactly.

I just thought you were calling me . . .
Evening all.

Looks like the Bahama system gets an orange crayon in a quick hurry.
Quoting 96. beell:


Exactly.

Lol, you kill me, beell :-))) Link
Well, as a women this thought crossed my mind very soon, too ;-)
So active, i'm getting excited!


naked swirl racing west with 92L is probably a dissipating LLC with a new one forming under the heaviest convection covering the N coast of Cuba, just my opinion



Late September and October would have to really haul a_ if we're going to see those predictions for 15+ come true.
Quoting 94. stormpetrol:

Link

circulation of 92L is half over the N coast of Cuba, drifting south for now


You sound like WKC.....
Quoting 103. washingtonian115:

Late September and October would have to really haul a_ if we're going to see those predictions for 15+ come true.


That is what I have been thinking all along. This is going to be a late fall type of season, which could be a little more than exciting than most of us would care to experience. Did not think conditions were ripe for (m)any classical Cape Verde storms this year.
106. beell
Quoting 105. daddyjames:



That is what I have been thinking all along. This is going to be a late fall type of season, which could be a little more than exciting than most of us would care to experience. Did not think conditions were ripe for (m)any classical Cape Verde storms this year.
Seems like the home grown storms aren't doing so hot either.
Quoting 107. washingtonian115:

Seems like the home grown storms aren't doing so hot either.


Well, yes the preponderance of ULLs imparting shear have been an issue - to say the least. We'll see whether this pattern continues into the fall or if it lessens up.
Quoting 91. daddyjames:



Three-Card monte is the "card game" you often see performed on street corners. It's a "hustle" of sorts.

From Wiki:
Three-card Monte - also known as find the lady and three-card trick - is a confidence game in which the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money, on the assumption that they can find the "money card" among three face-down playing cards. . . .
In its full form, three-card Monte is an example of a classic "short con" in which a shill pretends to conspire with the mark to cheat the dealer, while in fact conspiring with the dealer to cheat the mark. The chances of a mark winning are almost nil against a skilled con artist.
I was not serious, dj. My question was a (n apparently bad punny) joke. Thanks just the same.
110. SLU
Quoting 70. LemieT:

The more hurricane seasons I witness, the less I seem to know about them. Once upon a time there were almost straightforward explanations you could give. Either the atmosphere is becoming more complex with time or the more we know, the less we are able to make sense of it.


Maybe a reputable geoengineer can explain what's happening to our weather?

Geoengineering is the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth's natural systems
next.t.d.shortly..94l
Crazy basin scale HWRF



Quoting 109. Barefootontherocks:

I was not serious, dj. My question was a (n apparently bad punny) joke. Thanks just the same.


oh, um, obviously I did not get it . . . .

Edit: Plus, it teaches all the "younger folks" who may not be familiar with the "game", what it really is ;)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past 24
hours in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms located just north
of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is not showing any
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development of this system while it
moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Due to strong upper-level winds, shower and thunderstorm activity
has become less organized and is now located farther southeast of an
area of low pressure located just south of the lower Florida Keys.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development while this system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
However, squalls and gusty winds are possible in portions of the
Florida Keys tonight and Saturday. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Totally OT, but BF and us other "Okies" may appreciate this:

How The Oil And Gas Industry Awakened Oklahoma%u2019s Sleeping Fault Lines

and this

The Petroleum Geologist and the Insurance Policy (opens a PDF)
Abstract
In a recent study, Hough and Page (2015) presented several lines of evidence suggesting that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century, including the Mw 5.7 El Reno earthquake of 9 April 1952, were likely induced by wastewater injection and possibly secondary oil recovery operations. We undertook an archival search for accounts of this event, which unearthed a newspaper article published immediately following the El Reno earthquake regarding a prominent petroleum geologist in the area who took out a rare earthquake insurance policy less than 60 days before the earthquake struck. In this study we present a historical context for this intriguing coincidence. We present a retrospective of oil industry practices in the early- to mid-twentieth century, gleaned from court records and other industry reports, that potentially bear on the interplay between oil exploration activities and earthquakes, focusing on the Oklahoma City region. We describe events of the day that could plausibly have alerted a geologist to the possibility of induced earthquakes, although there is no indication that the potential for induced earthquakes was widely recognized within the industry at that time.
Quoting 112. nrtiwlnvragn:

Crazy basin scale HWRF




That is calling 93L a hurricane just offshore FL? This year is see it to believe it.
HAPPY PEAK EVERYBODY ! Oh wait....never mind.
Quoting 106. beell:




Wonder if we will see some reorganization in the Central, SE Bahamas with 92L
For some reasons, I think we'll see some potent formidable hurricanes from these waves.

Quoting 55. bigwes6844:


Here comes the wave I mentioned this morning off Africa. Shouldnt be surprised to get another X by tonight or tomorrow.
Quoting 120. nocanesplease:

For some reasons, I think we'll see some potent formidable hurricanes from these waves.


and another fish im sure
Quoting 120. nocanesplease:

For some reasons, I think we'll see some potent formidable hurricanes from these waves.


Absolutely.
123. beell
Quoting 118. ProgressivePulse:



Wonder if we will see some reorganization in the Central, SE Bahamas with 92L



If we're talking about 92L in the Florida Straits, GFS & ECMWF track it west.

93L, near the northern Lesser Antilles, is basically some thunderstorms supported by upper divergence east of an ULL. Not looking like a very storm-friendly environment ahead.


93L
Quoting 115. daddyjames:

Totally OT, but BF and us other "Okies" may appreciate this:

How The Oil And Gas Industry Awakened Oklahoma%u2019s Sleeping Fault Lines

and this

The Petroleum Geologist and the Insurance Policy (opens a PDF)
Abstract
In a recent study, Hough and Page (2015) presented several lines of evidence suggesting that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century, including the Mw 5.7 El Reno earthquake of 9 April 1952, were likely induced by wastewater injection and possibly secondary oil recovery operations. We undertook an archival search for accounts of this event, which unearthed a newspaper article published immediately following the El Reno earthquake regarding a prominent petroleum geologist in the area who took out a rare earthquake insurance policy less than 60 days before the earthquake struck. In this study we present a historical context for this intriguing coincidence. We present a retrospective of oil industry practices in the early- to mid-twentieth century, gleaned from court records and other industry reports, that potentially bear on the interplay between oil exploration activities and earthquakes, focusing on the Oklahoma City region. We describe events of the day that could plausibly have alerted a geologist to the possibility of induced earthquakes, although there is no indication that the potential for induced earthquakes was widely recognized within the industry at that time.

Cool, dj. Not so OT. Some think hurricanes cause earthquakes .
I had seen the abstract for Hough et pal but had not found the study. Thanks. Downloaded it.

Re: The article at your first link: When postulating an explanation for OK's quakes vs. N. Dakota's relative lack thereof, the author of the article missed a key fact. Not sure what percentage, but (many, some, a lot?) of Oklahoma's thousands of injection wells have been in use since the 1930s. Also, the author mentions fracking in ND almost as a difference. The new drilling here, a large amount, if not all, is horizontal. And fracked. OK natural gas wells, very fracked. ;)
Quoting 124. Barefootontherocks:


Cool, dj. Not so OT. Some think hurricanes cause earthquakes .
I had seen the abstract for Hough et pal but had not found the study. Thanks. Downloaded it.

Re: The article at your first link: When postulating an explanation for OK's quakes vs. N. Dakota's relative lack thereof, the author of the article missed a key fact. Not sure what percentage, but (many, some, a lot?) of Oklahoma's thousands of injection wells have been in use since the 1930s. Also, the author mentions fracking in ND almost as a difference. The new drilling here, a large amount, if not all, is horizontal. And fracked. OK natural gas wells, very fracked. ;)


Thanks for pointing that out - amazing the difference in wastewater between us and North Dakota! Seems as if OK's wells are pretty much played out (at least that is part of what I glean from the article) given that drilling here has been going on for much longer.
Quoting 123. beell:




If we're talking about 92L in the Florida Straits, GFS & ECMWF track it west.

93L, near the northern Lesser Antilles, is basically some thunderstorms supported by upper divergence east of an ULL. Not looking like a very storm-friendly environment ahead.


93L


Not unless you are an ULL :D
Is 92L the next Rita? I'm in Houston, and the reappearance of 92L as a potential tropical troublemaker disturbs me. Does anyone have an answer for me?
Quoting 110. SLU:



Maybe a reputable geoengineer can explain what's happening to our weather?

Geoengineering is the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth's natural systems
Hopefully we are not stupid enough to try a large scale alteration of the weather. You think climate change is a problem, wait until you see what happens when a species that fully doesn't understand the weather, tries to alter it.
Quoting 83. Abacosurf:

36 hrs. 92 Barely hanging on heading west.




Next run of the GFS'll point it toward TX. Shades of Rita.
Quoting 127. pureet1948:

Is 92L the next Rita? I'm in Houston, and the reappearance of 92L as a potential tropical troublemaker disturbs me. Does anyone have an answer for me?


If I said "Yes" would you require anything more than that? Otherwise, the answer is "No".
It'll be interesting to see what weather we get from this overnight.


Quoting 128. NativeSun:

Hopefully we are not stupid enough to try a large scale alteration of the weather. You think climate change is a problem, wait until you see what happens when a species that fully doesn't understand the weather, tries to alter it.


Part 2 of your answer validates Part 1.
133. beell
Quoting 126. daddyjames:



Not unless you are an ULL :D


or a lolz
94L should turn out to be a nice OTS hurricane.

Quoting 101. Gearsts:

So active, i'm getting excited!





Showing shear relaxing quite a lot, which should help Twaves develop. More of an OTS scenario it seems though.
Quoting 131. ChillinInTheKeys:

It'll be interesting to see what weather we get from this overnight.






are there any live cams in key west?
Quoting 121. mamothmiss:

and another fish im sure


No problem with fish/OTS storms
Ian may actually be a decent storm if the GFS is right.
CFS/NMME on good agreement on above average rainfall across the Caribbean/GOM for October:





First time I've seen them in such agreement - could be signalling an active October ahead.
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



If I said "Yes" would you require anything more than that? Otherwise, the answer is "No".


But it is somewhat likely to affect Houston's sensible weather forecast, yes?
HWRF develops 92L and brings it where they dont need it...

Quoting 135. Thunderground:




are there any live cams in key west?



There are many... Google and choose at your own risk!

10 gusting to 20 from the NE here this evening.


No more speed I'm almost there
Gotta keep cool, now, gotta take care
Last car to pass, here I go
And the line of clouds goes down real slow
And the radio plays some forgotten song
Brenda Lee is coming on strong
And the newsman sang his same song
One more radar lover gone
We got a thing that's called radar love



Quoting 131. ChillinInTheKeys:

It'll be interesting to see what weather we get from this overnight.





I'm more worried about what Houston'll get from this. I KNEW Houston would be on WW for it.
Quoting 143. pureet1948:



I'm more worried about what Houston'll get from this. I KNEW Houston would be on WW for it.


I'd be worried too. Looking like .5" of rain with 10mph winds gusting to 15.
146. beell


Quoting 127. pureet1948:

Is 92L the next Rita? I'm in Houston, and the reappearance of 92L as a potential tropical troublemaker disturbs me. Does anyone have an answer for me?


Did you read Dr. masters blog or read the NHC's TWO? Is there any mention of a Rita type storm heading for Houston? I'll answer it for you. NO!
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



If I said "Yes" would you require anything more than that? Otherwise, the answer is "No".
If it helps, I predicted it by watching the radar yesterday. The wind sheer is blowing the top off right now, but at least no one can argue about the circulation. As for hitting Houston, the worst case scenario would be a Texas city landfall as the winds and rain would be on the big city side. On a lighter note Buffalo Bayou would finally be washed out. This time of year the radar runs quicker than the models.
Quoting 139. pureet1948:


But it is somewhat likely to affect Houston's sensible weather forecast, yes?


Hurricane Hermine still making headlines. Really, they were in a ditch along the side of a road that had flooded in the storm.

Mother and Baby Manatee Rescued From Side of the Road in Hermine Aftermath
"In the aftermath of Hermine, the mother manatee and 2-year-old male calf were found in a water-filled ditch next to a road that had flooded with water, Kane Rigney, a manatee biologist with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, told ABC News."

Quoting 149. Pallis1:

If it helps, I predicted it by watching the radar yesterday. The wind sheer is blowing the top off right now, but at least no one can argue about the circulation. As for hitting Houston, the worst case scenario would be a Texas city landfall as the winds and rain would be on the big city side. On a lighter note Buffalo Bayou would finally be washed out. This time of year the radar runs quicker than the models.


Well, that would still put Houston in the strike zone. Now, for the $50,000 questions:

1. When would landfall occur if 92L begins moving W/NW in the general direction of Houston?

2. How strong would it be upon landfall as a named storm?
Quoting 151. unknowncomic:





I don't like that northward trend.
Quoting 147. luvtogolf:



Did you read Dr. masters blog or read the NHC's TWO? Is there any mention of a Rita type storm heading for Houston? I'll answer it for you. NO!
like they aren't ever wrong or the models you guys rely too much on.....to give u a nicer answer....it may or may not develop but could bring some rain in either way. Sometimes the "unnamed" storms or small tropical storms can cause more damage than the bigger ones. Those of us who live in Houston can attest to that....Alison and those in central Louisiana who are still recovering.
Quoting 146. beell:






So, what are you trying to say?
Quoting 150. aquak9:






That's the same look my Russian Blue would get just before she would steal (and I am not exaggerating) the entire chicken off the table. And man, even though the bird was bigger than her, and outweighed her - there was no way you were getting that chicken back. It was like chasing an ant on speed, could lift 50 times her weight and accelerate faster than a Indy race car . . . .

Edit: Quoted the wrong one initially. Fixed!
Key West Nexrad

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity .50 elv.

As far as Houston forecast goes...looking pretty wet off and on for next 8/9 days...so whether or not 92L develops or not I'm assuming it's going to pull alot of moisture over to this side of the Gulf along with a front that's going to come into north Texas next week. Probably will have a "squeeze play" to some effect with moisture coming up from gulf along with front bringing rain too. Have to see what kind of precipitation forecasts come out. All I know is my grass has never been greener but the mosquitoes are getting meaner!!
Quoting 139. pureet1948:



But it is somewhat likely to affect Houston's sensible weather forecast, yes?


Only assuming that the forecaster's in Houston have any sense . . . (no offense to you beell, there always is an exception to the rule ;D]
Quoting 141. ChillinInTheKeys:



There are many... Google and choose at your own risk!

10 gusting to 20 from the NE here this evening.


YouTube channel "StormChasingVideo" has three YouTube LIVE cams in the Keys. Two in Key West and on in Marathon.
Quoting 153. pureet1948:



Well, that would still put Houston in the strike zone. Now, for the $50,000 questions:

1. When would landfall occur if 92L begins moving W/NW in the general direction of Houston?

2. How strong would it be upon landfall as a named storm?


I tried. Poof. Bye bye.
93L is heading for vary low shear



94L is ginormous
Quoting 150. aquak9:



Quoting 147. luvtogolf:



Did you read Dr. masters blog or read the NHC's TWO? Is there any mention of a Rita type storm heading for Houston? I'll answer it for you. NO!

This storm isnt going to Texas.... calm down.
Quoting 162. daddyjames:



Only assuming that the forecaster's in Houston have any sense . . . (no offense to you beell, there always is an exception to the rule ;D]


BP Earthwatch says the problem with 92L is that the forecasters have not had time to model it. It just came up suddenly. Remember: History's worst hurricanes have come up that way.
Looking at the models, me thinks that Texas to LA needs to watch for a lot of rain.
Quoting 169. pureet1948:



BP Earthwatch says the problem with 92L is that the forecasters have not had time to model it. It just came up suddenly. Remember: History's worst hurricanes have come up that way.


Really, wow I thought we were tracking a 92L just a few days ago . . . then again, wouldn't BP Earthwatch be kinda skewed towards a DOOM scenario regardless of the actual evidence?
Quoting 164. luvtogolf:



I tried. Poof. Bye bye.


Kinda like 92L in the GOM?
Did the blog implode after 99L? Eerily quiet here lately.
Quoting 170. Dakster:

Looking at the models, me thinks that Texas to LA needs to watch for a lot of rain.


Yes, but hopefully none from 92L.

Quoting 174. SecretStormNerd:

Did the blog implode after 99L? Eerily quiet here lately.


Hermine wore us out. It was like training for the 100 meter dash, only to find yourself running a marathon . . . blindfolded.
Quoting 156. Patrap:


Quoting 176. Barefootontherocks:

CLink for sound effects



LOL - that is one of the better ones!
Quoting 180. daddyjames:



LOL - that is one of the better ones!



But I don't like where NGFDL and HWRF take 92L. Looks like a tossup between TX and LA, as usual.
Quoting 140. hydrus:

HWRF develops 92L and brings it where they dont need it...



Thanks Hydrus, when this model comes on board I pay attention. Probably the most underrated model out there.
184. SLU
Quoting 128. NativeSun:

Hopefully we are not stupid enough to try a large scale alteration of the weather. You think climate change is a problem, wait until you see what happens when a species that fully doesn't understand the weather, tries to alter it.


Well it's been happening for years with ELF technology and chemtrailling , both of which are still dismissed by the ignorant as "conspiracy theories" even though the government and the military have admitted to it in their own documents.
Quoting 169. pureet1948:



BP Earthwatch says the problem with 92L is that the forecasters have not had time to model it. It just came up suddenly. Remember: History's worst hurricanes have come up that way.

Yeah in the most recent images from the floater (I would post but I lack the tech to do a gif, somehow as a late end millennial I missed 'that') But you can see it redevelop that blossom of convection on the systems SE side. I think the NHC is being very responsible dropping it back to 30%. I mean clearly since it was at 40 earlier they know it's eerie but are currently going blind in terms of models. I think through tomorrow as it dips through that lower shear area we should know. These are generally my favorite systems, like winning a scratch ticket randomly when you wake up lol. ps: I don't know what I'm talking about most of the time but it sounds good ;p
Quoting 171. Patrap:




92L is impressing me tonight convection wise on radar.
Quoting 182. pureet1948:




But I don't like where NGFDL and HWRF take 92L. Looks like a tossup between TX and LA, as usual.


I was talking about the musical accompaniment.
190. JLPR2
So close to normal, its been so long! XD

191. beell
Quoting 162. daddyjames:



Only assuming that the forecaster's in Houston have any sense . . . (no offense to you beell, there always is an exception to the rule ;D]


No offense taken. I love our NWS guyz here!
Quoting 191. beell:



No offense taken. I love our NWS guyz here!


So, basically what you are saying is that I was right in my assumption?
Quoting 168. Hester122:


This storm isnt going to Texas.... calm down.



Would the fronts trying to get into Texas now be the reason for that?
Quoting 184. SLU:



Well it's been happening for years with ELF technology and chemtralling , both of which are still dismissed by the ignorant as "conspiracy theories" even though the government and the military have admitted to it in their own documents.


Woo-Hoo, HAARP and chemtrail conspiracies. Let me go get my tinfoil hat. While it is true the government tried many different weather modification programs, and programs still exist to induce precipitation, like cloud seeding. There is no evidence to support any sort of widespread or continuing large scale weather modifications programs period. Interestingly enough, belief in conspiracy is a major predictor of science denial, especially in regards to climate change.
Quoting 189. Grothar:



Very blobulicious out there!
197. beell
Quoting 193. daddyjames:



So, basically what you are saying is that I was right in my assumption?


Well, actually, fwiw, imho, btw, etc., where you strayed was at #130.
(i like teasing pureteat1948)
Quoting 138. Envoirment:

CFS/NMME on good agreement on above average rainfall across the Caribbean/GOM for October:





First time I've seen them in such agreement - could be signalling an active October ahead.


HOPEFULLY (Yelling!) they won't back off ! :\
Quoting 198. CaribBoy:



HOPEFULLY (Yelling!) they won't back off ! :\

I still have a feeling October will bring us "the big one."
Quoting 197. beell:



Well, actually, fwiw, imho, btw, etc., where you strayed was at #130.
(i like teasing pureteat1948)


Well, I did state that if I had to offer any evidence for the affirmative, that I would have to change my answer to a negative. Doesn't that count? [and don't think I did not notice . . . well, your error :D]
Quoting 194. pureet1948:




Would the fronts trying to get into Texas now be the reason for that?


It could go to texas only the wishcasters are saying it wont purrett it has a 80 percent chance of coming to texas IMO just i will give it a low chance of developing
Quoting 113. daddyjames:



oh, um, obviously I did not get it . . . .

Edit: Plus, it teaches all the "younger folks" who may not be familiar with the "game", what it really is ;)
Yea, like me! I had no clue what it was so I was glad that someone took the time to explain. Thanks :)
203. IDTH
Quoting 184. SLU:



Well it's been happening for years with ELF technology and chemtralling , both of which are still dismissed by the ignorant as "conspiracy theories" even though the government and the military have admitted to it in their own documents.

Comments like this make me want to throw something at my computer screen.
Quoting 189. Grothar:




Gro - you are aware that hieroglyphs went out of style centuries ago? (if we are talking about the Mayans)
Quoting 194. pureet1948:




Would the fronts trying to get into Texas now be the reason for that?
In another three weeks it would be, climatologically speaking. Right now, it could be.
No one can state for certain what 92L will look like in the morning, let alone 5-6 days from now. I'm pretty sure you understand that. I feel the same concern you do. So does everyone who's watching 92L. That's all we can do, watch things unfold - which makes most of your questions unanswerable.
:)
206. beell
Quoting 195. Naga5000:



...Interestingly enough, belief in conspiracy is a major predictor of science denial, especially in regards to climate change.


no it's not!
;-)
Quoting 205. Barefootontherocks:

- which makes most of your questions unanswerable.
:)


Boy, are you being charitable or what?
Quoting 174. SecretStormNerd:

Did the blog implode after 99L? Eerily quiet here lately.
Maybe because its Friday nite? Or is it these wimpy storms.
94L



Should become TS Ian this weekend and hopefully a nice OTS hurricane. :)
Quoting 180. daddyjames:



LOL - that is one of the better ones!
Yeah. Nice rendition. Heads up. Rain on its way.

Quoting 189. Grothar:




To think they will be fish storms :\

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N43W to a 1010 mb low
near 12N42W. These features are moving W at 20 kt. The low remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough as a broad monsoonal gyre. At
this time, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-17N between
34W-47W. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. Due to this, the system
has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48
hours.
Quoting 207. daddyjames:



Boy, are you being charitable or what?
Moi? Honest maybe. Lpl
Quoting 184. SLU:



Well it's been happening for years with ELF technology and chemtralling , both of which are still dismissed by the ignorant as "conspiracy theories" even though the government and the military have admitted to it in their own documents.
I just wonder if these so called weather experts who are trying to alter our weather, have a clue to what they are doing, and if what they are doing is helping to contribute to man made climate change? This is of course if you believe in weather modification. Still almost on the fence with this one, as their are a lot of things we need to learn in regards to weather and cycles.
Quoting 210. Barefootontherocks:

Yeah. Nice rendition. Heads up. Rain on its way.




Yeah, i see the lightning in the distance. have to run out to the store too, so- I oughta go.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past 24
hours in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms located just north
of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is not showing any
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development of this system while it
moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
Quoting 201. James1981cane:



It could go to texas only the wishcasters are saying it wont purrett it has a 80 percent chance of coming to texas IMO just i will give it a low chance of developing




You're teasing me, right?
Question. Why is that so far this season almost every system has had to interact with an upper-level low at some point. While it quiet there are none, and then as soon as we have an invest to track then "BOOM!" the basin fills with ULLs.
Quoting 216. CaribBoy:

Quick question! Who are the 5 biggest wishcasters on the blog?


Well we know for sure you are in position 1... I might be in the top ten but I mostly read rather than comment. I try not to say too much unless it has some sort of value or if I think it hasn't been said before. (Except when I am hoping I get at least some storm action :-) )
Quoting 218. daddyjames:



The CMC, you, umm The CMC, you again, and . . . . well - the CMC.

WKC should get at least 5th place.
South and west. The mantra of the ages.
224. SLU
Quoting 203. IDTH:


Comments like this make me want to throw something at my computer screen.


If you do so you won't be able to track Tropical Storm Ian this weekend.
New NAm showing 92L in the gulf and 93L on east coast of FL.
226. SLU
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2345 UTC 12.6N 43.3W T1.5/1.5 94L
09/2345 UTC 24.1N 81.4W T1.0/1.5 92L
Quoting 222. SunnyDaysFla:


WKC should get at least 5th place.


Yeah WKC would be in there with Purrett AND cARIBOY
Quoting 226. SLU:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2345 UTC 12.6N 43.3W T1.5/1.5 94L
09/2345 UTC 24.1N 81.4W T1.0/1.5 92L


Is this good for 92L????
Thanks for the replies XD
Quoting 207. daddyjames:



Boy, are you being charitable or what?


Ah, the true definition of charity, (1Corinthians 13) But alas, greed, inequity, and blindness, lead us to where we ever quicken to.
Quoting 189. Grothar:


I think it's starting to look like a blobathon out there!
Waving a fond farewell to 92L - nice spin in our Key West radar today ... only a few sprinks

Link
Quoting 210. Barefootontherocks:

Yeah. Nice rendition. Heads up. Rain on its way.




Pretty impressive gust front moving in right now! Just beat the storms coming back form the store (whew). Guess that front is finally passing through.

All kidding aside, gusts up to 60 mph, hail, and Severe Storm Warnings (straightline winds) being issued for North Central and Northeast OK right now.

Edit: Prolly SE Kansas too, but I don't live there, so don't know. . . .





92 and 93L both needs too be watch both 92 and 93L are heading for vary low shear






whats see what 92 and 93L both look like in the Am
Wow - we have a mini tornado outbreak occurring in Illinois. Keep your heads down up there!

Quoting 211. CaribBoy:



To think they will be fish storms :\

This season is boring, no heavy weather for us... What the Atlantic is waiting for to send us a nice season.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 1028 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 1012 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 1009 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 959 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 948 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 937 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 1012 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 911 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 905 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 945 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 840 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 934 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 824 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 916 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 813 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 810 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 905 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 805 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 759 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 757 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 755 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING <>a href="http
Yeah, just a little wind associated with these storms moving through OK

0105 60 2 W BURLINGTON ALFALFA OK 3690 9846 STORM KICKED UP LOTS OF DUST. (OUN)
0214 64 1 WSW VANCE AIR FORCE B GARFIELD OK 3633 9792 AWOS STATION 1 WSW VANCE AIR
FORCE BASE /END/. (OUN)
0215 75 4 SE ENID GARFIELD OK 3636 9783 75 MPH GUST WITH 62 MPH SUSTAINED WIND. (OUN)
Quoting 234. daddyjames:



Pretty impressive gust front moving in right now! Just beat the storms coming back form the store (whew). Guess that front is finally passing through.

All kidding aside, gusts up to 60 mph, hail, and Severe Storm Warnings (straightline winds) being issued for North Central and Northeast OK right now.

Edit: Prolly SE Kansas too, but I don't live there, so don't know. . . .
Saw the gust front on radar, and the big warning polygon earlier and the new warnings now. Nothing here yet. Much of OK had a marginal severe risk today.
As per usual, The Stillwater Sheild went up, and spared us anything too massive (the spitting of storms just before they arrive here seems all too common)



We are SWO on the map.
Quoting 241. daddyjames:

As per usual, The Stillwater Sheild went up, and spared us anything too massive (the spitting of storms just before they arrive here seems all too common)



We are SWO on the map.


Happens to us too in Chiefland
Gonna be nice after it passes through though, 15 F difference on either side of the front.

Quoting 242. JrWeathermanFL:



Happens to us too in Chiefland


How did you make out with the H storm? Far enough away not o be terribly impacted [drove through your neck of the woods when I went down to FL this summer. It was 3AM, so I thought better about stopping to say hello ;)]
Quoting 237. zicoille:


This season is boring, no heavy weather for us... What the Atlantic is waiting for to send us a nice season.


One of the most striking thing this year is the lack of thunder!

We normaly hear it more often.
Rain starting here. Gust front approaching. Not too much lightning to go walking in the rain.
Quoting 240. Barefootontherocks:

Saw the gust front on radar, and the big warning polygon earlier and the new warnings now. Nothing here yet. Much of OK had a marginal severe risk today.


Hoping that by the time they get to your neck of the woods, they weaken quite a bit.
Quoting 247. daddyjames:



Hooping that by the time they get to your neck of the woods, they weaken quite a bit.
Funny. Out here, the gust front is moving straight S from N. Small storms moving in from SW and the main front from the NW.

Could do with a little less than severe wind, I guess.
Red alert! BP EarthWatch has a new 1-hour old video update on 92L.

Link
Quoting 250. pureet1948:

Red alert! BP EarthWatch has a new 1-hour old video update on 92L.

Link

Thanks
Quoting 172. daddyjames:



Really, wow I thought we were tracking a 92L just a few days ago . . . then again, wouldn't BP Earthwatch be kinda skewed towards a DOOM scenario regardless of the actual evidence?


I just posted a link to their latest video. The narrator thinks they're making a mistake lowering the percentage chance of development.
Quoting 248. Barefootontherocks:

Funny. Out here, the gust front is moving straight S from N. Small storms moving in from SW and the main front from the NW.

Could do with a little less than severe wind, I guess.


All is good here, hope it remains so for you. Have a good evening BF!
Quoting 251. James1981cane:


Thanks


You're welcome. I do hope he's wrong, though.
Quoting 252. pureet1948:



I just posted a link to their latest video. The narrator thinks they're making a mistake lowering the percentage chance of development.


Its possible that they did, we'll have more info in the morning. Catch you later pureet. I'm off to a bowl of ice cream, then off to bed!
Quoting 254. pureet1948:



You're welcome. I do hope he's wrong, though.


92L is developing some small banding on the west side of it
KABOOM!!!

(Sorry, CaribBoy. I do enjoy my weather.)
Quoting 253. daddyjames:



All is good here, hope it remains so for you. Have a good evening BF!
Thank you. 'Nite, dj.

And, Good night, Gracie.
Quoting 256. James1981cane:



92L is developing some small banding on the west side of it


Meaning it'll be a strong storm upon development, huh?
Quoting 259. pureet1948:



Meaning it'll be a strong storm upon development, huh?


Should be a good tropical storm by landfall
261. 7544
new run the 0z on 93 hmmm Link
Quoting 260. James1981cane:



Should be a good tropical storm by landfall


I hate to ask this, but---can you at least give me an educated guess as to where it might make landfall?
Quoting 261. 7544:

new run the 0z on 93 hmmm Link



I think that's a plausible scenario.
Quoting 262. pureet1948:



I hate to ask this, but---can you at least give me an educated guess as to where it might make landfall?


I think honestly Texas coast somwhere
Quoting 264. James1981cane:



I think honestly Texas coast somwhere


South or southeast Texas?
Quoting 264. James1981cane:



I think honestly Texas coast somwhere


Make of it what you will. I just hope you don't think southeast Texas.

Quoting 265. pureet1948:



South or southeast Texas?


Most likely south central or south east coast anywhere from Brownsville to port arthur
Quoting 267. James1981cane:



Most likely south central or south east coast anywhere from Brownsville to port arthur


Then I'll have to trust the CMC's TX/MX solution, in that case.
Quoting 268. pureet1948:



Then I'll have to trust the CMC's TX/MX solution, in that case.


I trust the HWRF which brings this to strong tropical storm strength nearing galveston or texas border area
Poor 92L. Another ULL to deal with. Better luck next time?
STS also?

Quoting 229. CaribBoy:

Thanks for the replies XD
Yo. C-SPAN's my latest obsession.

Today I was listening to the subcommittee hearings on the flooding in Louisiana. Below are some notes I took from this morning's live hearings. I strongly - STRONGLY suggest, if you live in any location susceptible to any natural disaster, you need to go listen (they'll have it on the web archives, look it up on C-SPAN's website.)

TL;DR: FEMA claims to have improved since Katrina and Sandy. The mayors called bullyouknowwhat and had lots of reasons why. (I edit out for language; it was infuriating to listen to.)

I'm listening to the mayors of Denim Springs and Central, LA ripping FEMA and the state Governor a new a******.

If you ever experience a regional disaster, never assume FEMA reps know their a****** from their elbows. FEMA reps didn't even know where their emergency water supplies were, let alone where to send them.

FEMA is supposed to contact each new mayor and let them know the aid request protocol in emergencies, and the state congressional rep probably saved lives by cutting through the red tape.

Cellphone service was mostly out. Do any of you have alternate communication?

FEMA wouldn't let the Mayor put the MREs and cases of water in his car to transport, because everything had to be broken down and counted - and the staging area wasn't in the flooded town, it was 4 miles away.

These are suburban communities that are 40+ feet above sea level, and never had unmanageable flooding before.

FEMA insists they have improved since Katrina and Sandy. The mayors and the state congressional rep are calling bull****.

Whoa. Total financial impact estimate for recovery? 8.7 billion dollars. "We're not going to charity our way out of this." 

The parish sheriff deputies are leaving because while FEMA reps have hotel rooms and per diem for food, LEO got nothing, not even a place to live.


Seriously guys, go and listen to the hearings. Playing a recording right now, almost done.
10, 30 and a 90. Looks like a activity will remain in e atl for now. 92 and 93 do bear watching, and personally, I'd keep a closer eye on 92. Until that surface low collapses, it has a shot, given conditions. That's not to say I anticipate development, but it has the better start of the two, closer to home. Just something to be observed, for now.
(Edit: in saying "given conditions", I mean to imply, if, it's granted conditions.)

I haven't been too vocal and although this isn't 2004-2010, this isn't 2011-2015, either. That el nino took a long time to build up before it burst. The warming took place on a much broader scale than previous events.

The equatorial pacific through to the mid lats were above avg, not a ribbon across the equator. My point is it was a long time coming. Although neutral/nina conditions have been observed recently, a large region of the central and northern, eastern Pacific remain fairly elevated in temp.

Am I wrong to think this is in contrast to past nino events and their aftermath? Seems much broader, like 1998 is a pretty bad analog yr. :\

94L

Closest to any real achievement.

92-L and 93-L have a tough road ahead. - Dry Air and Wind Shear (What else is new ?) 94-L May be fun to watch as

it finds the weakness between ridges and stays out to sea.



Poor lil 92-L
FWIW, after checking NHC marine forecast, they are trending towards MX for the future path.

Quoting 268. pureet1948:



Then I'll have to trust the CMC's TX/MX solution, in that case.
Quoting 276. swflurker:

FWIW, after checking NHC marine forecast, they are trending towards MX for the future path.




Are they really? That's contrary to HWRF's scenario at 126 hours.



Oh, what part of Mexico? Matamoros?
Quoting 275. canehater1:




Poor lil 92-L


And voila!


3. An area of low pressure located just southwest of the lower Florida
Keys is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for
significant development while this system moves westward at 5 to 10
mph across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
93 is the L you should be looking at, imo. The other L's are chopped liver, unless you live in South Tampico or Central Azores. 93 has a shot. He/she could be a contender with the synoptics in place.
Can 92L catch the sweet spot? Will 92L follow in the footsteps of Hermine or be torn to smithereens be the Mighty Shearmo? Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel!
Quoting 279. CosmicEvents:

93 is the L you should be looking at, imo. The other L's are chopped liver, unless you live in South Tampico or Central Azores. 93 has a shot. He/she could be a contender with the synoptics in place.


Well, 93 is one greater than 92.
282. 7544
72 hours so far eruo with the cmc on 93l into fl but not as strong
Infected with ULLs
The chilling effect of Hermine
look at the new storms one off African coast. and more to follow. should be new invest maybe today, or sunday.



72 hr. Surface F'cst. (Monday 8am EDT)
Quoting 272. nonblanche:

Yo. C-SPAN's my latest obsession.

Today I was listening to the subcommittee hearings on the flooding in Louisiana. Below are some notes I took from this morning's live hearings. I strongly - STRONGLY suggest, if you live in any location susceptible to any natural disaster, you need to go listen (they'll have it on the web archives, look it up on C-SPAN's website.)

TL;DR: FEMA claims to have improved since Katrina and Sandy. The mayors called bullyouknowwhat and had lots of reasons why. (I edit out for language; it was infuriating to listen to.)

I'm listening to the mayors of Denim Springs and Central, LA ripping FEMA and the state Governor a new a******.

If you ever experience a regional disaster, never assume FEMA reps know their a****** from their elbows. FEMA reps didn't even know where their emergency water supplies were, let alone where to send them.

FEMA is supposed to contact each new mayor and let them know the aid request protocol in emergencies, and the state congressional rep probably saved lives by cutting through the red tape.

Cellphone service was mostly out. Do any of you have alternate communication?

FEMA wouldn't let the Mayor put the MREs and cases of water in his car to transport, because everything had to be broken down and counted - and the staging area wasn't in the flooded town, it was 4 miles away.

These are suburban communities that are 40+ feet above sea level, and never had unmanageable flooding before.

FEMA insists they have improved since Katrina and Sandy. The mayors and the state congressional rep are calling bull****.

Whoa. Total financial impact estimate for recovery? 8.7 billion dollars. "We're not going to charity our way out of this." 

The parish sheriff deputies are leaving because while FEMA reps have hotel rooms and per diem for food, LEO got nothing, not even a place to live.


Seriously guys, go and listen to the hearings. Playing a recording right now, almost done.


Government corruption ya think. Until a tragedy happens to you most have no idea who really cares. It has not gotten any better since Katrina and never will. What gets me is these people who work for agencies like FEMA how do they live with themselves?
288. dflam
Dr. Masters - could you touch in a blog post how do NHC arrive at % chances for development. Percent of what? compared to what? is this based on historic fact or is that a random number, instead of saying low, medium, high - etc?
Quoting 288. dflam:

Dr. Masters - could you touch in a blog post how do NHC arrive at % chances for development. Percent of what? compared to what? is this based on historic fact or is that a random number, instead of saying low, medium, high - etc?


Please see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgtwo.php
NDBC
Location: 24.456N 81.877W
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2016 06:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 21.0 kt gusting to 24.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.5 F
Dew Point: 75.9 F

Sand Key Buoy Near Key West
Why are some people suggesting conspiracy theories of the government getting involved in cloud seeding or altering the climate to reduce the intensity of developing tropical cyclones? That claim is absurd and physically impossible. There is no way possible mankind can reduce the intensity of tropical cyclones, since even the weakest tropical storm produces a significant amount of energy greater than what humans can harness
Quoting 291. lobdelse81:

Why are some people suggesting conspiracy theories of the government getting involved in cloud seeding or altering the climate to reduce the intensity of developing tropical cyclones? That claim is absurd and physically impossible. There is no way possible mankind can reduce the intensity of tropical cyclones, since even the weakest tropical storm produces a significant amount of energy greater than what humans can harness

the thing is
cloud seeding works

so we're in 2009 now? okay then.

Closed circulation. Case closed.
Quoting 287. frank727:



Government corruption ya think. Until a tragedy happens to you most have no idea who really cares. It has not gotten any better since Katrina and never will. What gets me is these people who work for agencies like FEMA how do they live with themselves?
I am from the government, I am here to help. Ronald Reagan said those were the 9 most terrifying words in the English language .
Quoting 295. number4steel:

I am from the government, I am here to help. Ronald Reagan said those were the 9 most terrifying words in the English language .


Is the joke that it's really 10 words?
93L look like it may have a chance. Shear will be dropping in the Bahamas and dry air not bad. Its vorticity also much better. A TS in a few days?
2016
The year for developmentally disabled Atlantic storms for a variety of reasons.
Quoting 296. bostonmatt:



Is the joke that it's really 10 words?


I think the real quote is "I'm from the government and I'm here to help"
Good morning from St. Thomas

It's 73, stormy and actually feeling a little cool here on the island this morning.

Was woken up early this morning by one of the loudest and brightest thunderstorms I think I've ever experienced in the 13 years I've been here. It took the power out all around us but left it on at this house. It pays to be on the hospital line! ;-)

The storm dropped just short of two inches in about an hour, and looking at radar, we have another round arriving shortly. The road running beside the house is flooded with the water up to the bottoms of the vehicles and the guts flooded over.

"The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Saint John in Virgin Islands...
Saint Thomas in Virgin Islands...

* until 845 am AST

* at 539 am AST... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to showers
and thunderstorms. This will cause flooding in streets and
underpasses as well as poor drainage areas and low lying spots."

I need this weather to move out soon.....I've got a date with the grandson and the beach today!

Hoping all is well with you folks out there!

Lindy
good/morning i thought for sure 94 was going to be designated last night. instead it looks like it spread out even more. 92 and 93? its a season of mutants
Quoting 287. frank727:



Government corruption ya think. Until a tragedy happens to you most have no idea who really cares. It has not gotten any better since Katrina and never will. What gets me is these people who work for agencies like FEMA how do they live with themselves?



One word --> PENSION
Quoting 292. NunoLava1998:


the thing is
cloud seeding works


Not very well and not on tropical cyclone scale. Cloud seeding works by creating ice nuclei in supercooled water. There is a distinct lack of supercooled water in tropical cyclones. See: Project Stormfury.
306. SLU
Not much of a season to come in 2017 according to the CFS.







307. SLU
Sigh ...



308. SLU
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1145 UTC 13.1N 44.9W T1.0/1.5 94L
10/0545 UTC 12.7N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 94L
Quoting 290. canehater1:

NDBC
Location: 24.456N 81.877W
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2016 06:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 21.0 kt gusting to 24.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.5 F
Dew Point: 75.9 F

Sand Key Buoy Near Key West

That anamometer is 4 stories high. Generally adds 10-20% to your typical 3 meter or 10 ft. readings.
What is the steering influence on 94L, considering it is not developed yet?
313. beell
Good weekend for chores wrt these two.


92L


93L
Quoting 311. leofarnsworth:

What is the steering influence on 94L, considering it is not developed yet?

Good question I too would like to know
From the NWS in Melbourne. Looks like a rainy week ahead here in ECFL with 93L inbound.


TUE-FRI...Relatively high precip chances as hi pres dominates the WX
pattern acrs the ern CONUS. E/SE flow will prevail thru the column,
tapping an airmass that, while not saturated, should have sufficient
deep lyr moisture to keep PWat values in the 2.00"-2.25" range for
much of the week. Overall instability will be somewhat lacking,
however, as H70 temps btwn 9-10C and H50 temps btwn -6C/-7C north of
the Greater Antilles are yielding fairly shallow mid lvl lapse rates
of 5.5-6.0C/KM.

A weak easterly wave generating deep convection just north of PR
should push acrs the FL peninsula on Tue, adding sufficient
energy/moisture to the equation to push PoPs into the 50-60pct
range. Remainder of the week looks fairly unsettled as well, but
with prevailing E/SE flow, highest precip chances will be over the
wrn peninsula. Will go with a 40/50pct coastal/interior break down.
No change in airmass, ergo no sig deviation from climo avgs with
respect to temps. Maxes in the U80s/L90s, mins in the L/M70s.
Typhoon fun fact: Malaysia had the honor of naming the next Western Pacific typhoon which will be Meranti. This is one of the tallest tropical tree species in the world and may be recognized by players of Minecraft. The yellow meranti is threatened by habitat loss and is classified as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN.)

LiveScience - Link
The peak of the season is in 2 days and it is mind boggling the lack of favorable conditions. However this is how August started off and we know what happened when we got past mid month and just because a month is off to a slow start in activity does not mean the whole month will be shut down. I mentioned on September 3rd that our best shot for our next named system will come between the 10th-15th of September. I expect the bulk of the activity we will see for the rest of the year will be after September 20th through mid October. We have these invests to track currently close to home, 94L should not be a threat but should be fun to track, not taking my eye off 92 and 93 until there is no spin left. This could be the theme for the rest of the year, waves being pushed west towards islands and U.S. and wait to develop, there is no reason to let your guard down yet. This season is far from over.
Quoting 293. NunoLava1998:


so we're in 2009 now? okay then.

2009 is the last time QuickSCAT existed, so any images you pull from it would have to be from then at the latest.
Quoting 306. SLU:

Not much of a season to come in 2017 according to the CFS.

Show us those June 2017 models again in 8 months and i'll bet 95% of the information is inaccurate. :)
Quoting 314. wadadlian:


Good question I too would like to know


Reading the NHC discussion is a good place to start.
Quoting 303. KuCommando:




One word --> PENSION


I had a chance to listen more last night to the recording of the hearing.

One mayor (I think Denim Springs, he's a real fireball) recounted FEMA calling him saying, "We need a block of 10 hotel rooms, we can send a crew out." He answered "I haven't even got a HOTEL. I had nine last week! They're all under water now." And then when another call came "We need 2500 feet of office space with AC" he said "WE HAVEN'T GOT POWER. I can offer you an asphalt parking lot."

There's one FEMA rep, Mark someone I think? he said was fantastic, cutting through the red tape whenever he could. And the red tape as discussed in the hearing was ridiculous. At what point is it reasonable to do, like State Farm finally resorted to after Katrina - get a photo of your house with water up to the roof, they declare it a total loss, cut a check.

And the issue of lack of flood insurance? These are places that haven't flooded ever, not like this, and the infrastructure was fine to handle all the hundred year floodwaters. There wasn't a NEED for flood insurance! This was never expected, not like this. Why is FEMA penalizing the people they were set up to assist in disasters nobody could realistically predict?

I'm so glad we have a house full of prepper ham radio licensed adults. Heck, most of our neighbors and friends are the same.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A more typical onshore flow regime with Bermuda ridge extension in
place at the surface. This should maintain a near normal chance of
gulf and lake breeze induced convection in the late morning and
afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a cold front in the Plains States will
be advancing southeast but run into resistance and less upper
support upon reaching the Gulf States tonight. A weaker surface
reflection should serve as a focus for thunderstorms Sunday with
the front dissipating from convective dispersion and persistent
deeper onshore flow. Regarding the well defined eddy moving
through the Florida Straits at around 6 kt this morning, satellite
imagery and KEYW radar clearly shows a circulation that remains
devoid of deep convection. Wind field not clearly indicative of a
westerly wind component on the south side and pressures remain
pretty high...around 1014mb. A bit of gradient response on
easterly winds over the keys as the feature passed south of Key
West overnight. Global models are not too keen on developing the
system more than a small scale eddy that becomes absorbed in the
mean flow over the central Gulf of Mexico in coming days. A few of
the tropical models do reflect some organization potential, but
shear and dry air aloft will have to be overcome. Nonetheless,
deep and persistent ridging over the eastern Gulf States should
keep the system moving westward. 24/RR

Excerpt from New Orleans F'cst Discussion


Nice rain again :))

Over 4" / 100mm since september 1st. Been a while.

Of course, hopefully more will come
Quoting 324. CaribBoy:



Nice rain again :))

Over 4" / 100mm since september 1st. Been a while.

Of course, hopefully more will come


Hooray! It's an excellent morning for you!
Quoting 195. Naga5000:


Woo-Hoo, HAARP and chemtrail conspiracies. Let me go get my tinfoil hat. While it is true the government tried many different weather modification programs, and programs still exist to induce precipitation, like cloud seeding. There is no evidence to support any sort of widespread or continuing large scale weather modifications programs period. Interestingly enough, belief in conspiracy is a major predictor of science denial, especially in regards to climate change.
It boggles the minds of intelligent and educated folks to see that some who reject the absolutely overwhelming scientific and observational evidence for AGW/CC fall prey to the flimsy pseudoscience and conspiratorial thinking of the chemtrails and HAARP loonies.
328. beell
Quoting 320. Patrap:



Reading the NHC discussion is a good place to start.


Nothing there on specific steering influences for the forecast track.
Gee...


Well you feel free to explain the steering fully sport.

Since your flying ahead of us all
In reading the Tropical weather discussion - I am kind of surprised to see this:

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the middle
Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 90W eastward.

A surface trough is hugging the coast of western Florida. A 1012
mb low pressure center is in the Straits of Florida near 24N82W.
A surface trough extends from Lake Okeechobee, to the 1012 mb
low center, toward northwestern Cuba. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from the Florida Keys to
northwestern Cuba. Upper level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development, while this system moves
westward 5 to 10 mph into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days. Squalls and gusty winds are possible in
parts of the Florida Keys today on Saturday.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, into
the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. MVFR in Alice and in Tomball. from
LOUISIANA to MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: IFR In
Evergreen. Florida: MVFR near Milton. IFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport. Light rain in Marathon and at the Naval Air Station
in Key West, in the Florida Keys.


Why are they including what seems to be NWS forecasts in the discussion? The big giveaway is the all caps, as it seems as if this was cut and pasted from somewhere else.
Quoting 285. markot:

look at the new storms one off African coast. and more to follow. should be new invest maybe today, or sunday.
Yep..One over Central Africa is huge..

And this part, is obviously a cut and paste, as the second part doesn't seem to jive with the first part - a possible tropical cyclone? and then later, a tropical depression may develop?

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13N. The 30-hour forecast consist of a 1008 mb low pressure
center near 16N48W...a possible tropical cyclone.
Expect gale-
force winds within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE
semicircle, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 07N to 20N between 36W and 50W, and from 06N to 11N
between 50W and 60W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for additional development It is likely that a
tropical depression may form during this weekend or early next
week
while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean during
the next several days. The chance of formation is high.
334. beell
Quoting 329. Patrap:

Gee...


Well you feel free to explain the steering fully sport.

Since your flying ahead of us all



Perhaps that would have been a better response from you. The one you gave did not answer the question.

Maybe it's time for a Fresca, sport.
I offer a way for the younger members to find things themselves.

Thanks.



Base Radial Velocity .50 elevation


Quoting 320. Patrap:



Reading the NHC discussion is a good place to start.


I don't know, today's 8 am discussion is one of the worst I have ever read. Seems as if MT can't write anything for himself this morning, lifting things from here and there.

CPac Invest #2 southwest of Hawaii looks particularly promising right now. The disturbance has plenty of deep convection over very warm SSTs, and is being enhanced by the pull aloft ahead of a large mid Pacific trough anchored over the Aleutians. The only limiting factor may be that it's still too attached to the ITCZ. If it does develop, it would be given the name Ulika.

92E/Orlene starting to break loose from the ITCZ south of Mexico.
Quoting 317. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The peak of the season is in 2 days and it is mind boggling the lack of favorable conditions. However this is how August started off and we know what happened when we got past mid month and just because a month is off to a slow start in activity does not mean the whole month will be shut down. I mentioned on September 3rd that our best shot for our next named system will come between the 10th-15th of September. I expect the bulk of the activity we will see for the rest of the year will be after September 20th through mid October. We have these invests to track currently close to home, 94L should not be a threat but should be fun to track, not taking my eye off 92 and 93 until there is no spin left. This could be the theme for the rest of the year, waves being pushed west towards islands and U.S. and wait to develop, there is no reason to let your guard down yet. This season is far from over.


Looking back in history, more Hurricanes have hit Southflorida during the month of October then any other month. It's not over, till it's over.
So post 218, where I poke fun at the CMC and CaribBoy (who certainly knew it was in jest) gets deleted, yet post 305 is allowed to remain? Geesh, it would be nice to know exactly what the standards are around here. . .

Guess you can't poke fun at the CMC ;)

94L showing good circulation, but not very good convection, no doubt choking on the dry air that's plagued tropical systems in the Atlantic all season long.
This blog is full of "MICRO AGGRESIONS"!


Quoting 344. PensacolaDoug:

This blog is full of "MICRO AGGRESIONS"!





LOL - it seems as if a few peeps have woken up on the cranky side of the bed this am.
Quoting 297. unknowncomic:

93L look like it may have a chance. Shear will be dropping in the Bahamas and dry air not bad. Its vorticity also much better. A TS in a few days?


Please add an (s) after the word look. Please add the word (the) before dry. Please add the word (is) before the word not. Please add the word (as) before the word bad. Thank you. UGH!!!!!!
Quoting 347. HurriHistory:



Please add an (s) after the word look. Please add the word (the) before dry. Please add the word (is) before the word not. Please add the word (as) before the word bad. Thank you. UGH!!!!!!


Please use a red pen if you are going to grade our statements.
Quoting 345. Patrap:



It's remarkable, verging on the improbable to see such a good tight spin like that at the surface, but not much else associated with it.
Quoting 348. daddyjames:



Please use a red pen if you are going to grade our statements.

It llook Tazgrammatically for correct too meh!
Quoting 343. BayFog:


94L showing good circulation, but not very good convection, no doubt choking on the dry air that's plagued tropical systems in the Atlantic all season long.


Hopefully it will end up much farther west
Quoting 346. daddyjames:


LOL - it seems as if a few peeps have woken up on the cranky side of the bed this am.
yeah for sure, my coffeepot didn't go off this morning.
looks like 94L is heading more W then what model runs where forecasting

i put it at 15N 49W





you can throw this out has it was forecast too start heading out too sea about 40W wish has not happen 94L is still heading due W




Quoting 350. ChillinInTheKeys:


It llook Tazgrammatically for correct too meh!


how did i get in too this ? please keep me out of this thank you
Quoting 355. thetwilightzone:



how did i get in too this ? please keep me out of this thank you


Mornin' Taz... All in jest... The blog wouldn't be the same without you!
Its September 10 with a CV spinner in the GOM.

Look to its WNW.


Never discount one.


Its in stealth mode...biding its time.


....Farewell and adieu fair Spanish ladies',


Click image for loop



358. JLPR2
AOI south/SE of the CV islands has the strongest 850mb vorticity I have ever seen with a tropical system that has not been designated a tropical cyclone.







Quoting 356. ChillinInTheKeys:



Mornin' Taz... All in jest... The blog wouldn't be the same without you!


am all ways here but if there nothing march going on in here or if there too march going on in here i hid a lot but am here
When it comes to tropical storm formations this season, i'm finding many bloggers to be floccinaucinihilipilificators.
floccinaucinihilipilificators.

I don't know what it means but I still feel like you need your mouth washed out with soap!
Quoting 353. aquak9:

yeah for sure, my coffeepot didn't go off this morning.


LOL - I have a fresh pot for you aquak9! I do it myself. Don't trust no automation for my coffee!
1.the action or habit of estimating something as worthless. (The word is used chiefly as a curiosity.).
Lots of "sports" talk for a weather blog. ;-)
Quoting 348. daddyjames:



Please use a red pen if you are going to grade our statements.


I'm sorry, but the red pen is reserved for high probability for development with Tropical disturbances. Please suggest another color.
Quoting 364. PensacolaDoug:

1.the action or habit of estimating something as worthless. (The word is used chiefly as a curiosity.).

Floccinaucinihilipilificators gonna floccinaucinihilipilificate.

Quoting 360. SPShaw:

When it comes to tropical storm formations this season, i'm finding many bloggers to be floccinaucinihilipilificators.


I'll take your word for it
Quoting 366. HurriHistory:



I'm sorry, but the red pen is reserved for high probability for development with Tropical disturbances. Please suggest another color.


Purple would be awesome!
Quoting 360. SPShaw:

When it comes to tropical storm formations this season, i'm finding many bloggers to be floccinaucinihilipilificators.


I'm not sure that is worth replying to ;)
Quoting 356. ChillinInTheKeys:



Mornin' Taz... All in jest... The blog wouldn't be the same without you!


Yes, Taz - we love ya for who you are!
New track model has shifted Meranti southward...

USNO - Link
I have a question for you people.
What do you think of the NHC posting Tropical Storm Warning for something that wasn't a Tropical Storm (Hermine)?
I mean I don't really get it, everyone knows what a gale is in the Northeast (at least in New England), and most everyone knows a Storm Warning is worse. So basically I don't get the point, because I don't think people are more threatened by a TS than a gale.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 373. Methurricanes:

I have a question for you people.
What do you think of the NHC posting Tropical Storm Warning for something that wasn't a Tropical Storm (Hermine)?
I mean I don't really get it, everyone knows what a gale is in the Northeast (at least in New England), and most everyone knows a Storm Warning is worse. So basically I don't get the point, because I don't think people are more threatened by a TS than a gale.


It has to do with what happend with Sandy - it transitioned to an extratropical storm just before landfall. The NHC stopped issuing advisories on it, and received undeserved criticism for doing so - form those folks that don't know any better.

As the NHC explained, as long as it was going to pose a potential threat to the NE, they would continue issuing advisories on the storm.
the odds are increasing that 94L might miss the trough that should have had it starting WNW track already. The system is still moving west.
you hope

Quoting 376. stoormfury:

the odds are increasing that 94L might miss the trough that should have had it starting WNW track already. The system is still moving west.
93L POOFED?
Preevyet.

Imo, should have Ian tomorrow and may be a fun one to watch as it's rounding the high.



92L and 93L should likely be dropped soon, unless conditions become more favorable. Doesn't look like dats gonna happen. 92L concerns me only because of a, still, healthy surface circulation. As long as it can hold on to that, it has a fighting chance, but that chance is increasingly slim, imo. Should soon have Ian though. Night all
Duplicate
Also, duplicate.

I better go to sleep!