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Newton Sweeps into U.S. with Strong Wind, Heavy Rain, Deep Moisture

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2016

Former Hurricane Newton swept from Mexico’s Gulf of California into southeast Arizona between 1 and 2 pm MDT Wednesday afternoon. Analyzed as a 45-mph tropical storm at noon MDT Wednesday, the fast-weakening Newton was classified as a remnant low by NHC a couple of hours after its international border crossing. In its final discussion on the system, NHC said: “Based on the data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.” Only a handful of systems have been officially designated as tropical storms while in Arizona, including Hurricane Katrina (1967), Hurricane Lester (1992), and Hurricane Raymond (1989). In 1997, Hurricane Nora tracked up the Colorado River valley along the Arizona/California border as a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Natural-color satellite image of Newton over southeast Arizona at 2035Z (4:35 pm EDT) Wednesday, September 7, 2015, about an hour after it crossed into the state. Image credit: CSU/RAMMB/CIRA.

Newton still brought a dose of strong wind and torrential rain to the state. About 40 miles south of Tucson, a remote automated weather station located at 7120 feet near the top of Mt. Hopkins recorded several hours of high wind from the east while Newton was still a tropical storm in Mexico. The winds peaked at 9:19 am MDT with a report of 52 mph gusting to 66 mph. Other high-altitude stations also reported strong gusts, including 58 mph at Miracle Valley (elevation 7677 feet). Rainfall totals of 3” - 5” were scattered along the track of Newton at higher elevations across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, with 1” - 2” common at lower elevations. A PWS on the summit of Mt. Graham reported more than 4”.

Newton’s presence lives on in the form of deep tropical moisture funneled well ahead of the storm into the Central Plains and Midwest across a preexisting frontal system. At Lincoln, IL, the atmospheric sounding taken at 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Thursday showed 2.54” of total precipitable water (TPW)--the amount of water vapor in a column of air from the surface upward. This is the second-highest TPW recorded on any date since regular balloon-borne soundings began in the Lincoln/Peoria area in 1949, topped only by 2.66” on July 8, 1949. Showers and thunderstorms dropped 3” - 5” rains on Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of southeast Kansas, eastern Iowa, and western Michigan (see Figure 2). The NWS Weather Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood thresholds on Thursday and Friday across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.


Figure 2. Multisensor analysis of total rainfall (in inches) from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday, September 7, to 12Z Thursday, September 8. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Tropical wave 93L near the Lesser Antilles little threat to develop
An area of low pressure located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands late Thursday morning was  headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system was designated Invest 93L by NHC on Thursday morning. Satellite images show that 93L has developed plenty of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Spinning clouds in mid to upper levels of the storm briefly created the false appearance that 93L had an eye Thursday morning, but the system has had no signs of a surface circulation center thus far. The disturbance was battling plenty of dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and the 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model showed the humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere was about 45 - 50%, which is normally too dry to support tropical storm formation unless wind shear is very low. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a  warm 29°C (84°F.)


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of 93L.

Forecast for 93L
There is very little model support for the development of 93L, with none of the 00Z Thursday operational versions of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, UKMET and European models--predicting development. Only 4% of the 50 ensemble members of the European model predicted development, and none of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble did so. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days, but the atmosphere would remain very dry, which should make any development slow to occur. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. Invest 93L will continue moving west-northwest to northwest at about 15 mph over the next five days, which should put it a few hundred miles southeast of the coast of South Carolina by Tuesday.

African tropical wave may develop early next week
A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Tuesday was bringing a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms to the waters of the tropical Atlantic about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday morning, as seen on Meteosat satellite images. This tropical wave could develop into a tropical depression by early next week, predicted our top three models for hurricane genesis, the UKMET, GFS and European models, in their 0Z Thursday runs. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 60%, respectively. The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update gentlemen.
lunch time update thanks
Thanks for the update
"A funnel cloud was spotted in Northern Arizona on Wednesday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Newton moved through the state. According to the National Weather Service, the funnel cloud was seen about 11:40 a.m. near Williams, which is slightly more than 30 miles west of Flagstaff." - Link

An MJO uplift will enter the Atlantic about October 10th it appears POSSIBLY! The Tropical Atlantic might see some activity in the Caribbean at that time.

60 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms again today lower lakes sw ward heading e ne



Nice
very humid still today front should push pass by end of today late evening


Toronto Pearson Airport at noon
Temperature:
27.5°C
Dewpoint:
22.3°C
Humidity:
73%
Wind:
WSW 28 km/h
Humidex:
37

12z CMC is very interesting.
Quoting 6. TampaSpin:

An MJO uplift will enter the Atlantic about October 10th it appears POSSIBLY! The Tropical Atlantic might see some activity in the Caribbean at that time.


dev in sw gom nw carb track ne out into atlantic could get some action then ya late season stuff
Quoting 344. vis0:

CREDIT:: NHC, Owners of Simpson Cartoons
 
image host

 
In all seriousness keep on eye on the warmer oceans for the next few weeks.  After that maybe NorEasterpalooza? or knot(s).
What's special of Cabo Verde's sportswear? The tiny Island emblems on the shirt (sleeves/cheat are really solar cells that internally (inside sleeves out through neck hole) can be plugged into iPODs to power them...though this might exists as to clothing its made up but sounds nice. If it does not exist nor created yet and  APPLE uses the idea,  10% of profits to PORTLIGHT, 10% to RED CROSS. or i'll sue the buds off ya.
Not an ipod fancier but I like the solar idea!
Thanks for a great graphic with meaning beyond a thousand words.

(Quote brought forward from previous blog comments.)
Quoting 10. CaribBoy:

12z CMC is very interesting.


Constantly Making Storms.......
Northern U.K. in for a stormy weekend...
Twin lows of 966 mb and 970 mb predicted:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Development of this system, if any, will likely be
slow to occur during the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a little more favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while this system
moves westward and then west-northwestward into the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila
Name/Dates/Max Wind (mph)
------------------------------------------------- --
H Alex .... 13-15 Jan .... 85
TS Bonnie .... 27 May-4 Jun .... 45
TS Colin .... 5- 7 Jun .... 50
TS Danielle .... 19-21 Jun .... 45
H Earl .... 2-6 Aug .... 80
TS Fiona .... 17-23 Aug .... 50
MH Gaston .... 22 Aug- .... 120
TS Hermine .... 28 Aug - .... 60
I don't trust 93L not to develop. Anything that has a cloud spin this time of the year makes me edgy.
Quoting 16. Melagoo:

Name/Dates/Max Wind (mph)
------------------------------------------------- --
H Alex .... 13-15 Jan .... 85
TS Bonnie .... 27 May-4 Jun .... 45
TS Colin .... 5- 7 Jun .... 50
TS Danielle .... 19-21 Jun .... 45
H Earl .... 2-6 Aug .... 80
TS Fiona .... 17-23 Aug .... 50
MH Gaston .... 22 Aug- .... 120
TS Hermine .... 28 Aug - .... 60

Hermine had a max wind of 80 not 60
Quoting 15. Melagoo:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Development of this system, if any, will likely be
slow to occur during the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a little more favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while this system
moves westward and then west-northwestward into the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila


thanks for posting old news we all ready no buy now
Quoting 13. luvtogolf:



Constantly Making Storms.......


Constantly making ctorms
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Looks like two fish storms, yet models show a more westward movement.
Quoting 16. Melagoo:

Name/Dates/Max Wind (mph)
------------------------------------------------- --
H Alex .... 13-15 Jan .... 85
TS Bonnie .... 27 May-4 Jun .... 45
TS Colin .... 5- 7 Jun .... 50
TS Danielle .... 19-21 Jun .... 45
H Earl .... 2-6 Aug .... 80
TS Fiona .... 17-23 Aug .... 50
MH Gaston .... 22 Aug- .... 120
TS Hermine .... 28 Aug - .... 60


Now why'd you have to go and treat Hermine like that? lol
Hurricane Hermine ... 01 Sept ... 80
Quoting 6. TampaSpin:

An MJO uplift will enter the Atlantic about October 10th it appears POSSIBLY! The Tropical Atlantic might see some activity in the Caribbean at that time.




Coincidentally (or is it) near the secondary peak of the season (~ Oct 20). Talked about it a while back.
Quoting 20. thetwilightzone:


Hermine had a max wind of 80 not 60



Everyone knows...that data is only valid through the end of August
I see invest 93L going NW, NOT WNW. Not bad in terms or organization by now.
As interesting as the GFS jajajajaajajaj

Quoting 10. CaribBoy:

12z CMC is very interesting.
The route of the TW southwest of the CV islands, if in fact it develops will depend on the time it takes to develop. If it struggles much further west (without developing) that increases the probability for it to reach the eastern Caribbean islands. I think it could be so, but lets see.
Quoting 21. thetwilightzone:



thanks for posting old news we all ready no buy now


I didn't. Thank you Melagoo for posting that
If we 'New Englanders' don't get some rainfall soon, this may turn into the worst drought on record.
"Severe drought conditions expand across Maine" - Link
Quoting 20. thetwilightzone:


Hermine had a max wind of 80 not 60


NHC Chart

... they are still monitoring Hermine since that date (from the day of posting that)
Quoting... GeoffreyWPB:





With More Favourable conditions 93L seems likely to intensify some...despite the odds -some sort of Cylogenesis seems evident....
Time will tell.
God Bless!
Of course, none system will develop (to be at least TD) by the climatological date of the maximum: Sept. 10. (or even close to it)
Quoting 34. NatureIsle:


With More Favourable conditions 93L seems likely to intensify some...despite the odds -some sort of Cylogenesis seems evident....
Time will tell.
God Bless!

Yes
From WU...

Link

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2016:

Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
ALEX January 13, 2016 75 3.1525
BONNIE May 28, 2016 40 1.0175
COLIN June 05, 2016 45 1.215
DANIELLE June 20, 2016 40 0.4425
EARL August 02, 2016 70 4.07
FIONA August 17, 2016 45 2.7075
GASTON August 23, 2016 105 24.6225
EIGHT August 23, 2016 0 0
HERMINE August 31, 2016 70 3.48
From the last blog...
Quoting LemieT:
snip... It's almost as if the weather has been artificially altered...
It has indeed been artificially altered - and by human activities.

The earth's climate is changing unnaturally due to anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels on a massive scale. Atmospheric CO2 levels haven't been this high in over 55 million years, and total atmospheric moisture content is almost 7 percent higher than one hundred years ago. That means more moisture is available to make bigger and more frequent heavy precipitation events. However, the distribution of changes of tropical cyclone patterns may be difficult to incorporate into the models because of the chaotic nature of weather and the many, many factors (including wind shear and atmospheric dust patterns) involved.

The computer programs used to model possible likelihoods for tropical cyclone genesis, strengthening and tracks are based on past events. Within the bounds of the chaotic nature of weather, scientists have been able to consistently improve short term weather forecasting and tropical severe weather modelling. However, AGW/CC is influencing climate and weather, including in the seven tropical cyclone regions, and the patterns do not appear to be changing uniformly in the various basins. Therefore, modelling for a changed - and continuously changing - global atmosphere is a big challenge, and not as likely to be as accurate as in a more stable atmosphere.

And of course, while most WU'pers are concerned with Atlantic basic hurricanes, they make up only about 12 percent of the worlds annual tropical cyclones. You should be thankful that the Atlantic is not getting increasing numbers of monster hurricanes like the recent ones in the western Pacific regions.

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, approximately 69 percent of the tropical cyclones occur in the Northern Hemisphere, while only 31 percent can be found in the Southern Hemisphere. Approximately 12 percent occur in the Atlantic Ocean, 57 percent occur in the Pacific and the remaining 31 percent occur in the Indian Ocean.
I always like it when I see commenters here discuss interesting tropical cyclones around the world, and when most of you show concern for the victims of such storms when they threaten land. I also recognize that many people who are not weather nerds come here for information and discussions when severe weather threatens their homes. However, I am put off by the regulars here who dismiss the dangers that tropical cyclones pose to people around the globe when the U.S. isn't threatened.

(Another thing that bugs me is the repeated complaining and whining by a number of WU regulars when forecasts and models - which are "predicting" likelihoods - are not 100% spot on. I don't know if it is due to ignorance regarding statistics and probabilities - or simply personality based - but it certainly is irritating.)
Oh how I just love 100 degree weather in September....


Trending west.........
Quoting 37. ChillinInTheKeys:

From WU...

Link

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2016:

Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
ALEX January 13, 2016 75 3.1525
BONNIE May 28, 2016 40 1.0175
COLIN June 05, 2016 45 1.215
DANIELLE June 20, 2016 40 0.4425
EARL August 02, 2016 70 4.07
FIONA August 17, 2016 45 2.7075
GASTON August 23, 2016 105 24.6225
EIGHT August 23, 2016 0 0
HERMINE August 31, 2016 70 3.48


Guess the WU and NOAA info needs to be updated. Hermine became a hurricane in the afternoon of Thursday, September 1 and reached her peak early Friday morning before landfall. The data is just out of date.
As per the original post regarding "long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America"...

I think location and strength are both overrated in terms of "will it be a fish or land storm"... through the years we've seen a ton of systems start in the south central MDR and only grow to weak TS's but still curve out to sea...

...and we've also had plenty who have tracked WNW north of 20N and east of 50W as major hurricanes and still got bent back to the west by the strengthening ridge... Isabel and Ike... both were quite far out there north and east in the CATL well north of the MDR wave train... in the case of Ike, the ridge got strong enough to bend it southwest into the middle of the Caribbean...

The point is, the strength (and trends in such strength) of the ridge versus the strength (and trends) of troughs in the vicinity are really the only important factor to watch in such scenarios... not strength or starting location of the cyclone.
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Oh how I just love 100 degree weather in September....

Obvious sarcasm is obvious. :)
Don't worry; those 90 degree November days are right around the corner!
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Oh how I just love 100 degree weather in September....

5th Hottest U.S. Summer Saw Record Northeast Heat
Climate Central, Published: September 8th, 2016

Still very warm in Germany as well - next week up to 32C (89,6F) for several days in the forecast, uff.
Quoting 41. ProphetessofDoom:



Guess the WU and NOAA info needs to be updated. Hermine became a hurricane in the afternoon of Thursday, September 1 and reached her peak early Friday morning before landfall. The data is just out of date.


ACE starts accumulating when a cyclone reaches Tropical Storm strength:

AL 09 2016083106 BEST 0 244N 880W 35 1004 TS
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Oh how I just love 100 degree weather in September....

Heh, it's not too uncommon where I am. In fact, my all-time record high was recorded in September.
Quoting 41. ProphetessofDoom:



Guess the WU and NOAA info needs to be updated. Hermine became a hurricane in the afternoon of Thursday, September 1 and reached her peak early Friday morning before landfall. The data is just out of date.

Listed V max is in kt, not mi/hr. 70 kt is about 80 mi/hr, SSHWS category 1 intensity.
Quoting 47. 1900hurricane:


Heh, it's not too uncommon where I am. In fact, my all-time record high was recorded in September.

yeah, here too... September 2011 in Texas it was 110.


I recall Hurricane Rita being a category 5 in the GOM at the same time central Texas was a toasty 105... this was LATE September 2005.
Quoting 40. CaribBoy:



Trending west.........

One could only hope?
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 3m3 minutes ago
At 2:10pm, DCA hit 99 -- just 1 degree short of the record for today. We're close, for sure!
Quoting 46. nrtiwlnvragn:



ACE starts accumulating when a cyclone reaches Tropical Storm strength:

AL 09 2016083106 BEST 0 244N 880W 35 1004 TS



Thanks! But I was referring to the classification from tropical storm to hurricane and the wind speeds, and also in terms of the date stamp of these reports, both of which were posted before hurricane status!
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Oh how I just love 100 degree weather in September....


You only have a few days to wait until some really nice weather.
NWS has low of 64 degrees Sunday night with a beautiful sunny day with a high of 82 degrees on Monday.

I'll have to wait until mid November for that here.

Quoting 53. Sfloridacat5:



You only have a few days to wait until some really nice weather.
NWS has low of 64 degrees Sunday night with a beautiful sunny day with a high of 82 degrees on Monday.

I'll have to wait until mid November for that here.


i cant hardly wait for these type of temps to be felt here in south florida.what i detest more are the high humidity/dewpoints =/
CMC from Tuesday
what is causing all of the wind shear across the CONUS and the GoM?
I posted some photos on my blog that some of you might find amusing.
Quoting 58. fmbill:

CMC from Tuesday
Here is the Euro position on Tuesday of 93L near NE coast of FL.
Quoting 59. odinslightning:

what is causing all of the wind shear across the CONUS and the GoM?

Global climate change.
Haven't seen the Atlantic this SAL free in a while.

Quoting 63. 882MB:

Haven't seen the Atlantic this SAL free in a while.


The CATL wave will be one to watch given that the forecast area continues to shift west into the Eastern Caribbean. It virtually has no SAL and a nice anticyclone over it, we'll see what it does.
Quoting 63. 882MB:

Haven't seen the Atlantic this SAL free in a while.

For one of these to make it with the shear this year they need an AC.
Quoting 55. fmbill:



Looks like a low level circulation is present and becoming better defined based on satellite.
Quoting 56. fmbill:


I see some of the other models are covering 93L, except they end abruptly. We shall see if it can get a closed COC and survive the island area which has been a chore this year.
Quoting 40. CaribBoy:



Trending west.........
What was the 8am cone?
Quoting 70. Gearsts:

What was the 8am cone?
img
8 AM Today:



8 AM Yesterday:



Quoting 71. Kyon5:


Why have they trended west while the models take it NW in to the open atlantic?
Low in the 40s a week from now in NE?
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

Why have they trended west while the models take it NW in to the open atlantic?
I think it's because the circulation may have relocated farther south and west around the convective area.
One year ago today-


Today-


Nice :)
GROTHAR it seems that we were the only ones on this blog who said that the eastern atlantic disturbance would continue west . now it seems it will be a caribbean one. i also notice the models are still trending with a WNW track at the end of the run. the next models run will be a continuation of the west track .


Special night for some folks in the Alps!

Rescue operation as more than 100 people trapped in French Alps cable car
MORE than 100 people have been left trapped in a cable car high above the French Alps.
By Rebecca Flood, PUBLISHED: 18:37, Thu, Sep 8, 2016 | UPDATED: 20:33, Thu, Sep 8, 2016

French live blog below says that they managed to get out 50 people by four helicopters until night and clouds set in. The other 60 passengers will have to spend the night in those tiny cabins at an altitude of 3,800m (12,468ft), but blankets, water and food [edit according to the latest news: and some aid workers] could be passed to them. Well, quite an experience *shudder*. I hope they are able to rescue everybody to safety in the morning.

Mont-Blanc: une soixantaine de personnes passera la nuit dans la telecabine

[Edit: latest news says that they got out 65 persons, so about 50 are left in the cabins for the night.]
Quoting 77. barbamz:



Special night for some folks in the Alps!

Rescue operation as more than 100 people trapped in French Alps cable car
MORE than 100 people have been left trapped in a cable car high above the French Alps.
By Rebecca Flood, PUBLISHED: 18:37, Thu, Sep 8, 2016 | UPDATED: 20:33, Thu, Sep 8, 2016

French live blog below says that they managed to get out quite a lot of people by four helicopters until night and clouds set in. The other 60 passengers will have to spend the night in those tiny cabins at an altitude of 3,800m (12,468ft), but blankets, water and food could be passed to them. Well, quite an experience *shudder*. I hope they are able to rescue everybody to safety in the morning.

Mont-Blanc : une soixantaine de personnes passera la nuit dans la t%uFFFDl%uFFFDcabine


That is my nightmare. I do not like heights...
They forgot the wine?

In Other News: 8 more people joined the Mile High Club....

Quoting 77. barbamz:



Special night for some folks in the Alps!

Rescue operation as more than 100 people trapped in French Alps cable car
MORE than 100 people have been left trapped in a cable car high above the French Alps.
By Rebecca Flood, PUBLISHED: 18:37, Thu, Sep 8, 2016 | UPDATED: 20:33, Thu, Sep 8, 2016

French live blog below says that they managed to get out quite a lot of people by four helicopters until night and clouds set in. The other 60 passengers will have to spend the night in those tiny cabins at an altitude of 3,800m (12,468ft), but blankets, water and food could be passed to them. Well, quite an experience *shudder*. I hope they are able to rescue everybody to safety in the morning.

Mont-Blanc : une soixantaine de personnes passera la nuit dans la t%uFFFDl%uFFFDcabine
93L passing thru box 1 means give it some respect.
Quoting 78. Dakster:



That is my nightmare. I do not like heights...


Me either.

Current jet stream energized across North America from Lester and Newton.
Afternoon all. After a heatstroke threatening 92 degrees with humidity yesterday, today's temperatures were much milder due to a surface trough which hinted at fall-like temperatures over New Providence this morning.

As for Newton, I say it's a pity some of those rains couldn't have made it to the California coast ....

Will check in later....
Quoting 76. stoormfury:

GROTHAR it seems that we were the only ones on this blog who said that the eastern atlantic disturbance would continue west . now it seems it will be a caribbean one. i also notice the models are still trending with a WNW track at the end of the run. the next models run will be a continuation of the west track .


I think they had to adjust it because the models are depicting a weaker system for the time being.
These are NOT cones. Just areas which a system might develop. A system doesn't get coned until after a depression has formed.


Quoting 60. Grothar:

I posted some photos on my blog that some of you might find amusing.


Nice to finally put a sweet face on Mr. Grumpykins ;) LOVE the shirt!
Quoting 85. Grothar:

These are NOT cones. Just areas which a system might develop. A system doesn't get coned until after a depression has formed.





Those are pre-cones.
88. vis0
Ah Grothar i think that blob nearing 40w ~8 to 12n joined and had 22 mini blobs maybe its the familiousBlob...oh wait that lends one to think familiar.    Maybe broodusblob? hmmm, it ain't as easy as one might think best left to the expert to do the naming...i bow to Grothar.

Meanwhile closer to home i'm watching remnants of 92, x92L (reads like a High school locker combination, 1st number given it was to the right) now remnants of Hermine might be trying to create a backdoor for x93L (as TWI states 93L does not exist).    This seems similar to 2016Fiona, though nothing might become of x93L but Fiona blended into a front was thought to be gone then re-fired and had to given another invest #.     i do not have the "toys" experts have but one could see LL Fiona go "under" the trough (visible imagery) and 93L seems to be a LL "skirter" so lets observe.   Via my way of thinking 93L  has 4 days to be on its own with no affects from whatever is at zip 10016.  This means 93L could head W/Sw and be 60 - 75% better of f than the recent sloppy spin ups we've see in the Bahamian towards east coast of USofA area.

Maybe a sloppy fujiwara? or a slo mo - looking fujiwara.  Can there be a fujiwara at 10mph...do we add the six million dollar man slo-mo "s(o)und FX"?
Quoting 85. Grothar:

These are NOT cones. Just areas which a system might develop. A system doesn't get coned until after a depression has formed.




Yes, but the system is expected to be at any point inside that area with a certain probability
Grothar's photo at a much younger age:

Quoting 87. Dakster:



Those are pre-cones.


Quoting 86. hurricanehanna:



Nice to finally put a sweet face on Mr. Grumpykins ;) LOVE the shirt!



40 years ago my face was much nicer, until Father Time decided to have some fun. I look at myself and all I see is 40kts of shear.
Quoting 78. Dakster:



That is my nightmare. I do not like heights...


When I was a kid, any time family came out, we had to take them up the Palm Springs tramway. I loved it up there, but was terrified on the journey each time! Nowadays they have fancy cable cars, but the ones back then seemed to make it even scarier :/
Quoting 94. Grothar:




40 years ago my face was much nicer, until Father Time decided to have some fun. I look at myself and all I see is 40kts of shear.

You've weathered the storms well :) We're all "weathering" with age - trust me.
97. vis0
CREDIT:: (though yanked the img did not vist site so be careful) http://thefishbowlnetwork.com/blog/the-fruit-that- makes-history/

 You at times might have seen over-turned lawn chairs for east coast TS that "pack-a-pinch". (Grandma sit down stop pinching  peoples cheeks)

 

Well i hope the flooding is not serious out in the SW though they need some moisture ...ok lots but not all at once. And hope nothing spins up in the Midwest due to 2016Newton's laws of gravitas (warm air cooling falls (heavy) causes spin ups)

 

Yet maybe remnants of Newton might cause this::

image host


 
Some news for us "elderly" ;-)

Smartphone study on weather and pain reveals early data
By Jonathan Webb, Science reporter, BBC News, Swansea, 7 September 2016
A study looking at how the weather affects chronic pain has released some early, surprising results.
People across three UK cities reported less time in severe pain as the weather warmed up from February to April - but pain then increased again in June. ...
Quoting 91. Dakster:

Grothar's photo at a much younger age:



That is not a photo from Gatubela or the cat woman, the bad girl in Batman series?
Mergeoblob looking healthy. Quite large

Quoting 100. Grothar:

Mergeoblob looking healthy. Quite large



Yes, indeed
Quoting 100. Grothar:

Mergeoblob looking healthy. Quite large




Well... let's hope it stays monsoonal wherever it's headin' ... Unless fish!
Quoting 100. Grothar:

Mergeoblob looking healthy. Quite large




I have heard that before...

Lets see if it can get its act together. (something I have heard before too)
Quoting 80. unknowncomic:

93L passing thru box 1 means give it some respect.



Aren't "Herbert Boxes" for a system that is already developed?
105. vis0

Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Oh how I just love 100 degree weather in September....
quick someone administer   -15 C(elcius) of temperature to washi115 she "deelarious"
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:



Aren't "Herbert Boxes" for a system that is already developed?
Not even in the box yet. Give it a chance.
Quoting 106. unknowncomic:

Not even in the box yet. Give it a chance please.
Hows this for a throwback. (Not that keen on 93L forming (well closer in my mind to 40% rather than 20% in five days)).

This is what was written by this blog on 9-26-15 about last September's 98L which became JQ, it reads:
98L between Bermuda and the Bahamas of little concern
A non-tropical trough of low pressure (Invest 98L) is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda as the system drifts north to north-northwest at about 5 mph. With record warm ocean temperatures near 30°C (86°F) and wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, this disturbance may show some slow development on Saturday and Sunday. However, wind shear is predicted to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, beginning on Sunday night. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 10%, respectively.

So with this system actually having a higher chance right now, also with very little to no model support. I would not discount it. Yes the air is dry but it is much better than it was just a few days ago.  
111. Kyon5
The many layers of the atmosphere..Got to love the weather...Good afternoon..
93L may have relocated South and West.

Link
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago
3-yr avg Atlantic ACE in September 2013-2015 was the lowest 3-yr avg Sep ACE observed in over a century (1912-1914)
Quoting 110. LargoFl:


They are almost always wrong.
Quoting 115. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago
3-yr avg Atlantic ACE in September 2013-2015 was the lowest 3-yr avg Sep ACE observed in over a century (1912-1914)

September has not been an active month the past few years. October has generally been more active.
118. Ed22
Quoting 113. CaribBoy:

93L may have relocated South and West.

Link
Yes it have could have done so.
Quoting 62. Kenfa03:

Global climate change.
Of course it is. 


But wait wasn't scare tactic #1 about climate change the super hurricanes that would be occurring ? 
Also you constantly hear how you can't trust the models 10 days out yet 10 years, 20 years, 50 years ? 

I am for anything that slows the harmful pollutants we are pumping into the atmosphere. I just wish  people would stop with the massive doomsday bs everything is not because of climate change 
Quoting 115. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago
3-yr avg Atlantic ACE in September 2013-2015 was the lowest 3-yr avg Sep ACE observed in over a century (1912-1914)


And I am really questioning is the Atlantic hyperactive period over? This is one data point. Not a big enough sample yet but getting there.
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:



Aren't "Herbert Boxes" for a system that is already developed?


Not just a developed system, For Major Hurricanes as I understand it.




Launch Tonight!

Launch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT from Cape Canaveral Complex 41.

Live coverage of the United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket flight with NASA's OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return probe can be found here. The goal of this 7 year mission is to retreive primordial material from the space Asteroid Bennu.

Also In space flight today India put a new geosynchronous weather satellite into space.
Quoting 111. Kyon5:




That's a lot of shear in a very large area.
had to be carrying a heavy payload. house was shaking looks good from this angle. e cen florida
Quoting 121. Dakster:



Not just a developed system, For Major Hurricanes as I understand it.


It seem it is systems that pass though that box and become major hurricanes are more like to hit Florida or NC.
Some well known storms that were not all developed when they passed through the boxes.
Just came in from watching the launch, beautiful launch and weather to match. Only 82 degrees with 64% humidity!
Quoting 121. Dakster:



Not just a developed system, For Major Hurricanes as I understand it.





Hebert Boxes
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 23m23 minutes ago
I've now been without power for exactly 7 days due to Hurricane Hermine. What on Earth would a major hurricane do to Tallahassee, Florida?
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:



You are correct 110MPH or better....
Hebert Boxes
Yes, but they are 110 miles or better when striking land, but not necessarily when passing through the boxes.
!!! Obama on Climate Change: The Trends Are 'Terrifying' (with 14 minute video interview of President Obama)
OSIRIS-REx aboard an Atlas-5. Click pic for series.
After today I'll be back in 2 weeks.
Quoting 128. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 23m23 minutes ago
I've now been without power for exactly 7 days due to Hurricane Hermine. What on Earth would a major hurricane do to Tallahassee, Florida?
would be 3 months
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Any development of this
system will likely be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
However, conditions are forecast to become more favorable early next
week, and a tropical depression could form in the central Atlantic
while the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

A large area of cloudiness with showers and a few thunderstorms
located about 200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a weak disturbance. Surface pressures remain high
in this area, and there are no signs of a surface circulation.
During the next few days, this system is expected to move west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

I've been thinking about weather vs climate, and science vs denial while we are in a lull between tropical systems.

I am no longer shocked by the fact that some supposedly "weather literate" regulars here don't know the difference between climate and weather. They continue to look foolish when they regurgitate climate myths such as ""scientists can't even predict the weather next week - how can they predict the climate years from now".

In the real world, climate models - which try to estimate future averages - are quite accurate over recent decades, and are being refined as time goes by. (LINK)

Also, the link between hurricane intensity and global warming is not linear and simple, and actual climate scientists expect weaker hurricanes to not be affected much, but many strong hurricanes may be likely to be even stronger. Also, RI events are more likely to occur as ocean temps rise, and the oceans are definitely getting warmer - but not uniformly warmer. (LINK)

Even Hermine reminds us that had she been over water one or two more days, a brutal "wind and high surge monster" rather than a "moderate surge and rain maker" might have slammed into Florida.

It is the potential for increasing RI events - like Joaquin last year - that worry me. And I think that is part of why many of us watch tropical waves and invests like 93L even when they are de-listed. We don't really know when hurricane are going to quickly turn into monsters.

However, rather than accuse meteorologists and the NHC of incompetence, I am thankful for their dedication and service. I know that they do their very best to anticipate the development of storms, as well as try to figure out when to drop or minimize warnings. Many laypersons seem to be extremely ignorant of the concepts of likelihoods and probabilities and still insist on the impossible standard of 100% accuracy when such a goal is patently unattainable.

If the NHC experts under-estimate a dangerous storm, they are castigated and accused of incompetence. And if they over-estimate a storm which ends up having little impact, they are accused of "crying wolf". But even without the crying wolf part, aggressive forecasting and warnings can lead to complacency and the ignoring of future warnings until it is too late to get out of harm's way.
Quoting 124. islander101010:

had to be carrying a heavy payload. house was shaking looks good from this angle. e cen florida

and secrets
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
138. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 9h9 hours ago Moraga, CA
Since 1950, there have been only 3 years with 0 active global TCs (>= 34 kts) on September 8 (1962, 1973, 2013).



Sigh ....
139. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach Sep 6 Walnut Creek, CA
0 TC (>=34 kt) formations in Atlantic so far this month. Only once since 2000 has 9/1-9/6 had 0 TC formations (2013)
interlude movie


Quoting 133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

would be 3 months

No power for 1 month in South Dade after Andrew. I had lots of cold showers.
Quoting 132. BaltimoreBrian:

After today I'll be back in 2 weeks.


Vacay or tour of duty?
Quoting 142. MiamiNative:


No power for 1 month in South Dade after Andrew. I had lots of cold showers.


It was at least 2 months, maybe a little more. We did drive north to power everyday so one could get a good nights sleep and a hot shower.
AL, 93, 2016090806, , BEST, 0, 167N, 560W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 93, 2016090812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 568W, 25, 1009, DB
AL, 93, 2016090818, , BEST, 0, 180N, 574W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 179N, 600W, 20, 1014, DB

.
Cmc- constantly making cyclones
148. vis0

Quoting 124. islander101010:

had to be carrying a heavy payload. house was shaking looks good from this angle. e cen florida
are you sure the house is ready for a CAT3... HOPING THAT NEVER HAPPENS TO YOU or anyone.