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Tropical Storm Newton Makes a 2nd Mexican Landfall, Spreads Heavy Rains to SW U.S.

By: Jeff Masters 3:22 PM GMT on September 07, 2016

Heavy rains have moved into Southeast Arizona as Tropical Storm Newton plows northwards at 18 mph. As of the 11 am EDT Wednesday advisory, Newton had top sustained winds of 50 mph and was located just 135 miles south of Tucson, Arizona. Newton made two landfalls in Mexico during the previous 36 hours. The first came early Tuesday morning, when Newton hit the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula with sustained winds of 90 mph, with the eye of the storm passing directly over the resort town of Cabo San Lucas. After crossing the spine of the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday, Newton weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and made landfall in southwest Mexico near Bahia Kino early Wednesday morning. Here are some peak wind gusts measured during and after this final landfall, according to NHC:

• 66 mph: Guaymas, Mexico
• 64 mph: East of Bahia Kino
• 50 mph: Hermosillo International Airport

The storm is being blamed for two deaths, with three others missing, from a capsized fishing boat near the town of La Paz on the Baja Peninsula. Newton is expected to cross into southern Arizona as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon, and dissipate over the dry, rugged terrain of Arizona by Wednesday night.


Figure 1. A woman wades through a street flooded by the heavy rains brought on by Hurricane Newton in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Newton on Tuesday morning, September 6, 2016. At the time, Newton was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds, located over the center of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. Image credit: NASA.

High moisture available to Newton
By late Wednesday morning, Newton was bringing heavy rains to southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico and southwest Texas. Widespread heavy rains of 1 - 3” and the risk of flash floods are expected in the region, and a Flash Flood Watch is posted. Ocean temperatures in the waters off the southwest Mexico coast, including the Gulf of California, are about 1°C (1.8°F) above average, which is allowing high amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere and feed Newton’s heavy rains. This rich moisture was streaming into the Southwest U.S., where on Wednesday morning, four upper-air observing stations—Amarillo, TX, El Paso, TX, Phoenix, AZ, and Tucson AZ—recorded top-ten amounts of moisture on record for the month of September (1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th highest, respectively.) The upper-air soundings measured total precipitable water (TPW)—the amount of water that would result if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above and precipitated it out. Upper-air balloon soundings began in the U.S. in 1948.

New African tropical wave may develop late this week
A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Tuesday was bringing a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms near the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday morning, as seen on Meteosat satellite images. This tropical wave could develop into a tropical depression by the weekend, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Wednesday run of the UKMET model. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, were less impressed with this tropical wave than in their previous runs, and showed only weak development of the system late this week, due to dry air coming off the coast of Africa. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 70%, respectively. The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America.

Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that the tropical wave (Invest 92L) that was over the central Caribbean near Hispaniola on Tuesday had grown very weak and disorganized. NHC no longer considers 92L an area of interest, and stopped issuing model forecasts for it.


Figure 3. MODIS visible satellite image of Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine on Tuesday morning, September 6, 2016. At the time, NHC was about to issue its final advisory on the storm. Image credit: NASA.

Hermine still spinning off the coast of Long Island
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is still gradually spinning down as it meanders over the cool waters just over 100 miles southeast of Long Island, New York. Hermine was bringing extensive cloud cover to the Northeast, but little in the way of strong winds or precipitation. On Tuesday afternoon at 2 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) judged that Hermine no longer represented a danger, and issued its last advisory on the storm. This ended a marathon 19-day period where they tracked the storm first as Invest 99L, then as TD 9, Tropical Storm Hermine, Hurricane Hermine, and finally, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine. What’s left of Hermine is expected to get absorbed by a low pressure system passing to its north on Thursday, and Hermine should no longer be identifiable as a separate entity by Friday.

Record September heat in Europe and the Mideast
All-time September heat records for Spain and Portugal fell this week, thanks to a massive dome of high pressure that settled over the region that sent temperatures soaring as high as 46.4°C (115.5°F) in Sanlucar La Mayor, Spain—a new September European heat record, if verified. Perhaps more extraordinary was the record September heat in the Middle East this week; Mitribah, Kuwait recorded 51.2°C (124.2°F) on September 4—the hottest reliably measured temperature on record so late in the year, world-wide. Wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has the details in his Wednesday post, Hottest Temperature Ever Measured in September for Europe.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Someone posted this link in the comments a couple days ago; thought it was relevant to today's blog post.

Over the years, there have been numerous times that the remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have affected Arizona. Although there has never been a case when one of these storms actually entered Arizona as a hurricane, there have been several occasions when these storms entered Arizona while still classified as a tropical storm. Here is a list of some of the more notable storms that have affected Arizona.
Top Arizona Hurricane/Tropical Storm Events
Thanks for the update
Thank you Dr. Jeff. It's a beautiful day here on the NW FL coast. Love the cooling morning temperatures, it got down to 76 this morning and after the looooooong huuuuuumid summer this year Fall is being looked forward to!
old news but we had 7.5" of rain in Myrtle Beach from TS Hermine. Center came within 6 miles of my house around midnight 9/2. The highest gusts we ever had were no more then 40-45 mph and that was for less than an hour, sustained like 25 mph. I guess it weakened that much and never got over water again to the OBX but then regained pretty quick. It was a very light wind event!
Tucson checking in!

A strange thing occurred this morning. Here in Tucson, we had a 100% chance of rain! I know right? This almost never happens! On top of that, it's raining! This is like the 3rd time this monsoon season that it rained in the morning! For those of you that don't know, that is not normal monsoon behavior! If anything other than plain ol' rain falls from the sky, I will report immediately.
*yawn*

Edit: that's the Atlantic Ocean yawning, turning over, and going back to sleep for a few more days.
Thanks Dr. Masters, There are two words I will never forget when tracking and Invest or a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic ( which is kind of ironic when you think of the word tropical)........ DRY AIR!
the tropical wave is carrying a closed low at 13N 53W. Albeit a weak one
So, does anyone know if Newton crossed into Arizona as an official tropical storm yet?
12z GFS looking like a seafood fest for the Atlantic.
Wow....
Folks we well ahead of the average 9th named storm
Number Named systems
Hurricanes Category 3 or greater
1 July 9 Aug 10 Sep 4
2 Aug 1 Aug 28 Oct 3
3 Aug 13 Sep 9 -
4 Aug 23 Sep 21 -
5 Aug 31 Oct 7 -
6 Sep 8 Nov 23 -
7 Sep 16 - -
8 Sep 24 - -
9 Oct 4 - -
10 Oct 19 - -
11 Nov 23
Don't you think it's ironic that Mexico gets a hurricane named Newton and the Atlantic gets storms named Joaquin?
Quoting 16. bigwes6844:

Folks we well ahead of the average 9th named storm
Number Named systems
Hurricanes Category 3 or greater
1 July 9 Aug 10 Sep 4
2 Aug 1 Aug 28 Oct 3
3 Aug 13 Sep 9 -
4 Aug 23 Sep 21 -
5 Aug 31 Oct 7 -
6 Sep 8 Nov 23 -
7 Sep 16 - -
8 Sep 24 - -
9 Oct 4 - -
10 Oct 19 - -
11 Nov 23


What are you talking about? What does this list mean? Please explain.
there it is!
Quoting 1. fmbill:


why is it so hot everywhere?
2PM TWO no changes

Still 20/70 on a wave that neither the GFS or EURO develop in the next 5 days.
Quoting 17. Grothar:

Don't you think it's ironic that Mexico gets a hurricane named Newton and the Atlantic gets storms named Joaquin?

I suppose we could call it global mixing!

Meanwhile I saw 43/C today in Merida Spain which is about halfway up the Portuguese Eastern border.
Set to cool a bit after today but in Seville the temps will stay well over 30/C for the next week or more.
Quoting 16. bigwes6844:

Folks we well ahead of the average 9th named storm
Number Named systems
Hurricanes Category 3 or greater
1 July 9 Aug 10 Sep 4
2 Aug 1 Aug 28 Oct 3
3 Aug 13 Sep 9 -
4 Aug 23 Sep 21 -
5 Aug 31 Oct 7 -
6 Sep 8 Nov 23 -
7 Sep 16 - -
8 Sep 24 - -
9 Oct 4 - -
10 Oct 19 - -
11 Nov 23


I will fix his list
Average date of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin

1. July 9
2. Aug. 1
3. Aug. 13
4. Aug. 23
5. Aug. 31
6. Sept. 8
7. Sept. 16
8. Sept. 24
9. Oct. 4
10. Oct. 19
11. Nov. 23

So far in the 2016 Hurricane Season we've had 8 named storms. The average date of the 9th storm would be Oct. 4th so we are a head of schedule for an average season.
Quoting 18. HurriHistory:



What are you talking about? What does this list mean? Please explain.


As you read the list bigwes6844 posted, comment 16. Picture the classifications going across from left to right as TS/Hurricane/Major. The list shows when we should on average get these classifications to form in The Atlantic. So if we have had 1 Major, this should not happen until September 4th. We have had 4 Hurricanes which should not happen until September 21st. Over all we have had 8 named storms which on an average year would be on the 24th of September. Meaning we are ahead of pace for a normal year.
Quoting 21. HurricaneFan:

2PM TWO no changes

Still 20/70 on a wave that neither the GFS or EURO develop in the next 5 days.
Years of tropical weather experience has taught me this much: the brilliant minds at the NHC look at far more than just computer models. Of course, if the blob doesn't develop, some here will call it a bust, but 70% isn't 100%...and computer models are not forecasts.
26. 7544
When could we see 93l watching the area by the bahamas could it form there first
MDR instability has been right about normal this month.

SSTs are also well above normal.

The lack of activity in the MDR is puzzling.

The Weather ChannelVerified account
‏@weatherchannel
The next Atlantic named tropical system could be coming soon. More: http://wxch.nl/2cCDcFh
NEWS | August 25, 2016
NASA flies to Africa to study climate effects of smoke on clouds
From NASA




A plane taking off from the runway.
NASA's ER-2 aircraft, managed by the agency’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, will fly at 65,000 feet to measure interactions between aerosols and clouds. Credit: NASA.

NASA scientists and two research aircraft are on their way to a unique natural laboratory off the Atlantic coast of southwest Africa to study a major unknown in future climate prediction.

The coast of Namibia is one of three places on Earth with persistent low-level clouds, and the only such location with a steady supply of tiny aerosol particles in the form of smoke from inland fires that mix with the clouds. NASA's Observations of Aerosols Above Clouds and their Interactions (ORACLES) mission will observe and measure how these particles interact with clouds and change their ability to warm or cool the planet.

"This is the perfect natural laboratory to study aerosol-cloud interactions, which are some of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future climate," said Jens Redemann, ORACLES principal investigator at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, California.

Some aerosols, such as dust and sea salt, have a natural origin. But others, such as soot and smoke released by fires and industry, are the result of human activities. Once aerosols enter the atmosphere, they can cause either a warming or cooling effect.

A color map with clouds of South Africa.
NASA’s ORACLES airborne science campaign will operate from Walvis Bay, Namibia (top left corner). Credit: NASA.
"Human activities currently are estimated to be responsible for perhaps half of all the aerosol particles in the atmosphere," said Robert Wood, a cloud scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle and ORACLES deputy principal investigator. "Smoke particles both reflect sunlight back to space, thus cooling the Earth, and absorb sunlight, which has the opposite effect of warming the Earth. When aerosols encounter clouds, they also change the properties of the clouds they are ingested into."

Understanding which effect is dominant, and under what conditions, is essential for improving the regional and global computer models that predict what may occur with future climate change. Changes in the properties of the cloud layer caused by aerosols could also have an effect on regional coastal fisheries by altering the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean surface that drives currents and ocean upwelling.

The initially separate cloud and aerosol layers off the Namibian coast are relatively stable. As the cloud layers thicken away from shore like a wedge, it gradually mixes with the aerosol layer. The result is a range of steadily changing conditions that allow the ORACLES science team to probe several different types of cloud-aerosol interactions.

ORACLES Namibia
The Namibian coast of southwest Africa (far left) is a unique natural laboratory with both persistent low-level clouds and a steady supply of tiny aerosol particles in the form of smoke from inland fires that mix with the clouds. Credit: NASA.
The ORACLES field campaign is based out of Walvis Bay in Namibia, where faculty and students from Namibian universities will be working alongside the ORACLES team. The project team has built new relationships with African colleagues, in particular, the Namibia University of Science and Technology in Windhoek. University personnel support logistics for ORACLES field work and will collaborate in data analysis and modeling. The Gobabeb Research and Training Centre in the Namib Desert, which previously has worked with NASA using the desert as an analog for the surface of other planets, is providing ground-based remote sensing of the atmosphere.

"Science is a great unifier," said Bernadette Squire Luna, ORACLES project manager at Ames. "We are building relationships with Namibian scientists that will outlast this project and will lead to yet more science and more interactions. We're connecting our countries in a very grassroots way."

NASA's P-3 aircraft, managed by the agency’s Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Virginia, carries five remote sensing instruments and flies through the cloud and aerosol layers at up to 20,000 feet to gather direct measurements from more than a dozen cloud and aerosol probes attached to the wings and inlets on the windows. NASA's ER-2 aircraft, managed by the agency’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, will fly at 65,000 feet with instruments that make measurements similar to those acquired from satellites.

ORACLES flights will complement and validate current satellite observations of aerosols and clouds, and test instruments that may fly on future satellites, by making detailed observations that are impossible to make from space with current capabilities.

Unlike a satellite, which generally gets one pass per day over a certain location, both aircraft will be able to sample clouds and aerosols throughout the day over the entire study area to see how they evolve. Together, data from the two aircraft will provide a comprehensive picture of how aerosols behave in the presence of clouds – and how aerosols directly or indirectly change how clouds behave.

ORACLES is a collaborative research effort that involves more than a hundred scientists from five NASA centers, two national laboratories, 10 U.S. universities, and five African research institutions. It’s a multi-year NASA Earth Venture suborbital investigation to probe Earth system processes that are not completely understood. These flights from Namibia are the first of several planned field seasons for the mission. Earth Venture investigations are part of NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder program managed at the agency’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.

For more information about ORACLES, visit:

https://espo.nasa.gov/oracles
ex 92 = comeback kid
Getting hard to find even a blob to watch. LOL!

Quoting 30. islander101010:

ex 92 = comeback kid
where
Could this be the calm before the storm? The MDR is above average SSTS, instability is average (much above the last few seasons) and the dust/SAL is finally clearing out after an unusual outbreak from late August:



The MJO is expected to be in a favourable state for the Atlantic for the next few weeks, with some of the long range forecasts having it in a favourable state right up until mid October. Will be interesting to see how the season will progress.
n.side.of.e.cuba?
Quoting 27. HurricaneFan:

MDR instability has been right about normal this month.

SSTs are also well above normal.

The lack of activity in the MDR is puzzling.


Not to mention this



and this



If only 92L was still at 50W now... But no, nothing!! The dry spin east of the Antilles doesn't have the potential 92L had in the same spot. Always the same story, no real disturbance when we need it.

DEPRESSING :-(
Quoting 11. stoormfury:

the tropical wave is carrying a closed low at 13N 53W. Albeit a weak one


Not even able to take advantage of the favorable conditions
Gonna keep an eye on that puff in the Southern Bahamas.
Quoting 33. Envoirment:

Could this be the calm before the storm? The MDR is above average SSTS, instability is average (much above the last few seasons) and the dust/SAL is finally clearing out after an unusual outbreak from late August:



The MJO is expected to be in a favourable state for the Atlantic for the next few weeks, with some of the long range forecasts having it in a favourable state right up until mid October. Will be interesting to see how the season will progress.


I stopped dreaming. Reality is so hard.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!

Was hoping for a more Northerly track with Newton which failed to materialize. At my location in Soo Cal mountains of San Diego County we have no rains from the southern/southeasterly monsoon flow of tropical air. Usually we get about 6-8 episodes per summer with thundershowers/thunderstorms giving us a few inches of rain in summer. Monsoon been shooting blanks thus far at my locale. Bummer! :(
by the time this large tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde islands get going the STR will be very strong, thereby allowing what is forecast to be the next named storm to move west instead of the forecast WNW track into the open atlantic.
Quoting 36. CaribBoy:



Not even able to take advantage of the favorable conditions


C'mon bro...........we kept a good attitude during 92L and was pulling for 2-4 inches for you! How much did you end up with from that?
Basin Scale HWRF shows some hope, in a CMC kind of way. They should mask those land areas, doubt Tropical Cyclones are developing there, probably did plain ole cyclones.



Quoting 41. HurricaneHunterJoe:



C'mon bro...........we kept a good attitude during 92L and was pulling for 2-4 inches for you! How much did you end up with from that?


We got 2.1" :) This is pretty nice.

But we remain way below average...

We need 7" to reach average (Jan 1st - Sept 7th period)!
Quoting 43. CaribBoy:



We got 2.1" :) This is pretty nice.

But we remain way below average...

We need 7" to reach average (Jan 1st - Sept 7th period)!


You have cistern? If so how much rain to fill it?
Starting to be concerned with what is going on above the northeastern part of Cuba. Looks to be like there is weak circulation brewing with some convection growing as well. Not sure if that was part of ex 92 that was sheared off the top and the mid level circulation was shunt off to the northwest while the lower level circulation kept chugging west. At any rate, once that ULL in the gulf moves more to the west this baby will have room to breathe as it approaches the Bahamas. Reminds me of Hermine part II. Any thoughts of what is going on down there???
Quoting 40. stoormfury:

by the time this large tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde islands get going the STR will be very strong, thereby allowing what is forecast to be the next named storm to move west instead of the forecast WNW track into the open atlantic.



Last night I made an entry about this. I normally don't disagree with the Doc or Mr. Henson, but it might be possible for two systems to merge since they will be moving at very different speeds in the Atlantic. I think some of the models (GFS, etc.) are developing the system too quickly, moving the system further into the Atlantic. I agree that it is very possible for any system there to move much more WNW or even a little more west. I'd show you all a graphic, but I'm too tired. You'll have to take my word.

Quoting 37. ElConando:

Gonna keep an eye on that puff in the Southern Bahamas.


Please try and use the correct terms in identifying these systems. It can be very confusing. That is a splat, not a puff!!





CaribBoy, Hope those MJO forecasts are correct and help them tropical waves fire lot's of convection and you all catch up with the water you need.! El Nino was pretty much a washout for Soo Cal over the winter but it did really dump on Northern California and filled our big storage lakes pretty good. Only good month during the winter in Soo Cal at my location was 7" in January from 3 storms.
record heat here 94 heat index 109
Quoting 47. Grothar:




Last night I made an entry about this. I normally don't disagree with the Doc or Mr. Henson, but it might be possible for two systems to merge since they will be moving at very different speeds in the Atlantic. I think some of the models (GFS, etc.) are developing the system too quickly, moving the system further into the Atlantic. I agree that it is very possible for any system there to move much more WNW or even a little more west. I'd show you all a graphic, but I'm too tired. You'll have to take my word.




Still full of potato salad are you? Go nap young man!
3 days from peak season
Quoting 48. Grothar:



Please try and use the correct terms in identifying these systems. It can be very confusing. That is a splat, not a puff!!








Yes Senior Splatoligist!
I see on BreakingNews.com that highways are getting shut down in Arizona, can anyone share some current/total precipitation information or maps, including totals so far from Newton? He should be crossing into the state as a tropical storm now, first one for quite a while to do so.
4:13 PM EDT Wednesday 07 September 2016
Heat Warning in effect for:
City of Toronto
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
Nice day in Soo Cal at my place 88 and 17%RH

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 07 Sep 1:20 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 07 Sep 1:10 pm
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
07 Sep 1:10 pm 88 38 17 NW 6G12
In their latest update for Newton the NHC forecasts 1 to 3 inches of rain for Arizona, with certain areas possibly getting more than that. Anything over 3 would probably send the storm into the state's Top 10 wettest tropical cyclones (per Wikipedia).
Twitter: Newton has crossed into Arizona, becoming only the 6th tropical storm on record to do so - @EricHolthaus
Hereford AZ 1.74"

Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

4:13 PM EDT Wednesday 07 September 2016
Heat Warning in effect for:
City of Toronto
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
Just across the Lake, Rochester, NY logged its 25th Day above 90 (4th most all time) The most since the early 70s.
Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

record heat here 94 heat index 109



Probably not record heat in DC metro though some record high mins are within reach. Low to mid 90s, maybe one day of upper 90s. This is still very late for a long duration hot spell in the Mid Atlantic.
I thought it was the Cape Verde Islands ? They now say Cabo Verde Islands. Is it me or when did this change occur ?
Quoting 48. Grothar:



Please try and use the correct terms in identifying these systems. It can be very confusing. That is a splat, not a puff!!







Don't we have enough jargon already?
Quoting 61. Methurricanes:

Just across the Lake, Rochester, NY logged its 25th Day above 90 (4th most all time) The most since the early 70s.


DC had 67 such days in 1980 and 2010. We're currently at 53. Not likely to reach the previous records. Normal is about 36.
Quoting 48. Grothar:



Please try and use the correct terms in identifying these systems. It can be very confusing. That is a splat, not a puff!!






caused from running into high mountains
Quoting 63. Storm4Ivana:

I thought it was the Cape Verde Islands ? They now say Cabo Verde Islands. Is it me or when did this change occur ?

Cabo Verde is the name of the country that occupies the islands. The official language is Portuguese, and Cabo
translates to English as Cape ( Verde translates to green).
Quoting 5. FyrtleMyrtle:

old news but we had 7.5" of rain in Myrtle Beach from TS Hermine. Center came within 6 miles of my house around midnight 9/2. The highest gusts we ever had were no more then 40-45 mph and that was for less than an hour, sustained like 25 mph. I guess it weakened that much and never got over water again to the OBX but then regained pretty quick. It was a very light wind event!


We have no record amounts in Santa Fe that match that in a month.
Quoting 48. Grothar:



Please try and use the correct terms in identifying these systems. It can be very confusing. That is a splat, not a puff!!








I could never disagree with the master blobologist, but I personally think it is more of a swoosh ;)
Quoting 44. HurricaneHunterJoe:



You have cistern? If so how much rain to fill it?


Yes, and due to the lack of rain I had to fill it several times this year (and the past years too) with water coming from the supply system. Right now I probably need over 10" of rain to make it full. It's a large one (50 cubic meters).

Quoting 70. CaribBoy:



Yes, and due to the lack of rain I had to fill it several times this year (and the past years too) with water coming from the supply system. Right now I probably need over 10" of rain to make it full. It's a large one (50 cubic meters).


one day you will drink water mined from the glacier ice of the Antarctic fresh pure all natural for your enjoyment for the low low price of 20 dollars a bottle
Most locations in Southeast Arizona are .50- 2.35" for TODAY only thus far, many over 1"

South East Sierra Vista 2.35"
Miracle Valley 1.10"
Bisbee .90"

system out west seems to be thinning out quite a bit now

Quoting 59. skycycle:

Twitter: Newton has crossed into Arizona, becoming only the 6th tropical storm on record to do so - @EricHolthaus


Sad Trombone

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of
southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite
imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep
convection. In addition, there have been no surface reports of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data
from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt
at an elevation of 4000 feet. Therefore, Newton is being declared a
post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt. Based on the
data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.


There have been some adjustments to the center position based on
visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16
kt. The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to
turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation.
Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight,
and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the
Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.

Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue
over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico
through tonight. Consult statements from your local National
Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings. The
Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on
Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and
flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
Wave is looking good.
Quoting 74. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

system out west seems to be thinning out quite a bit now




Nice loop.....saw that closest band to Soo Cal as I was driving home from the V.A. Clinic towards the mountains where I live, saw them big puffy,wispy tropical clouds which were about 100 miles further east.
Quoting 76. bigwes6844:

Wave is looking good.



Hopefully not "pre-fish"
Quoting 74. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

system out west seems to be thinning out quite a bit now




Yup, much weaker........the desert will do that sometimes.
Quoting 78. CaribBoy:



Hopefully not "pre-fish"


Let's think positive and say......those waves got some serious potential and by the satellite presentation some nice convection/RAIN! Hope they help you out!
Quoting 79. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yup, much weaker........the desert will do that sometimes.
I think the dryness over a desert literally sucks the moisture right out of the air half don't even get a chance too fall
Quoting 76. bigwes6844:

Wave is looking good.


I will check back in the morning. It does look quite propitious just now but I can't countenance staring at a splat, squish, swoosh, or puff.
Quoting 78. CaribBoy:



Hopefully not "pre-fish"
The wave will have a weakness to its north so there's a really big change she will end north of the islands.
Quoting 64. ACSeattle:


Don't we have enough jargon already?


Never enough jargon........it keeps the brain going....LOL
Quoting 63. Storm4Ivana:

I thought it was the Cape Verde Islands ? They now say Cabo Verde Islands. Is it me or when did this change occur ?


Cabo Verde is the proper Portuguese name. In English it's translated as Cape Verde.
hermines circulation pulling all the rain southeastward as it advances from the west towards the east and me comeon hermine I need a nice shower for a cool off up here

Quoting 85. Greg01:



Cabo Verde is the proper Portuguese name. In English it's translated as Cape Verde.

And actually, Cape/Cabo Verde is not the islands, but the westernmost point of the African continent. The islands were named for this cape.
Getting good rains is very important once you live in the carribean..Here in the Virgin Islands we have City water that they convert from the ocean to drinkable water..Only if you live in the hills you have to use cisterns to fill up..But anyone can just catch rain water..
4:13 PM EDT Wednesday 07 September 2016
Heat Warning in effect for:
City of Toronto
The Heat Warning is likely to continue through Thursday. Temperatures may not be quite as hot tomorrow as they were today due to a late day cold front and some accompanying showers and thunderstorms, but the humidity is forecast to remain high until the cold front passes.

A return to more seasonal temperatures with less humidity is expected Friday.
While heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults;
- infants and young children;
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses;
- people who work in the heat;
- people who exercise in the heat;
- homeless people; and
- people without access to air conditioning.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 59. skycycle:

Twitter: Newton has crossed into Arizona, becoming only the 6th tropical storm on record to do so - @EricHolthaus


Actually...
Based on the
data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.
Per NHC
alright its cooling off 93 heat index 107

looks like max heat index today will be 109
Quoting 59. skycycle:

Twitter: Newton has crossed into Arizona, becoming only the 6th tropical storm on record to do so - @EricHolthaus

But, it looks like officially, the NHC says otherwise.
Two powerful lows mimicking the Fujiwhara Effect in the North Atlantic this weekend:

Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think the dryness over a desert literally sucks the moisture right out of the air half don't even get a chance too fall


Im 2 mountain ridges from the desert but it's enough to keep me 15-20 degrees cooler then there and am well versed in virga just because of my elevation of 3600. Makes a big difference if that bottom 3000 feet of the column is bone dry, Im getting rain and for everyone else them raindrops go POOF.
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

alright its cooling off 93 heat index 107

looks like max heat index today will be 109


YIKES! Here in Soo Cal Sept has been awesome! Aug-Sept usually the hottest months for me..........the high on Labor Day Sept 5 was 78 at my place! Normal 90-95 Low RH. They saying a Longwave trof sets up next week for below normal temps continuing. We shall see. Hope that A/C is working good.
Quoting 39. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Dr Masters!

Was hoping for a more Northerly track with Newton which failed to materialize. At my location in Soo Cal mountains of San Diego County we have no rains from the southern/southeasterly monsoon flow of tropical air. Usually we get about 6-8 episodes per summer with thundershowers/thunderstorms giving us a few inches of rain in summer. Monsoon been shooting blanks thus far at my locale. Bummer! :(


When was your last RAIN? Was May 07 here. Rain since Jan 1st is 5.22" here....
Quoting 61. Methurricanes:

Just across the Lake, Rochester, NY logged its 25th Day above 90 (4th most all time) The most since the early 70s.

I can attest to that! Compared to the last few years, it has been dramatically hot and humid! (Bloomfield, NY)

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-sta tion/dashboard?ID=KNYEASTB2#history
These are the two waves which I think will merge together.


Quoting 87. BayFog:


And actually, Cape/Cabo Verde is not the islands, but the westernmost point of the African continent. The islands were named for this cape.


Africa's westernmost is the edge of a penisula named Cap-Vert in Sénegal, where french is the official language, hence the french name.
Originally it was named Cabo Verde, since portuguese explorers wehre the first european to discover this area.
AccuWeather.com ✔ @breakingweather
Saturday's earthquake in Oklahoma has been upgraded to magnitude 5.8, strongest ever in Oklahoma history https://twitter.com/USGS/status/773619359717613568 …

23m
The current exceptional heatwave was also well felt high in the mountains. For instance a record
temperature of 6.3 °C was measured by a weather station at the Mont Blanc de Courmayeur (4750 m asl), the actual summit of the Mont Blanc, the highest mountain in the Alps, is at 4810 m asl.

https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/7735311234 27188736/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Good mid level circulation over SE Bahamas Link
Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

caused from running into high mountains
Quoting 96. PedleyCA:



When was your last RAIN? Was May 07 here. Rain since Jan 1st is 5.22" here....

I quit keeping figures after March Ped.........7" in Jan and 2" March Feb was like .03........Like 9" Jan,Feb and March......and I don't think anything beyond a trace this summer=no boomers in the monsoon.
Quoting 98. Grothar:

These are the two waves which I think will merge together.





It already looks like 2 hands whose pointer fingers are about to touch.
Quoting 320. hurricanehanna:



So our little ex92L should just ride off into the sunset, right ? Hopefully ? Please ? Just don't want to see any CV's in the GOM


Ex 92L bears watching & Re: organization- is definitely still at it...
Time will tell.
God Bless!
Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hermines circulation pulling all the rain southeastward as it advances from the west towards the east and me comeon hermine I need a nice shower for a cool off up here




you're near toronto right? i'm dt near queen and duff, and this summer has been the summer of the toronto shield! toronto heat island vaporizing everything that comes its way??
Quoting 106. earthisanocean:



you're near toronto right? i'm dt near queen and duff, and this summer has been the summer of the toronto shield! toronto heat island vaporizing everything that comes its way??


ya I am at Kennedy and 401 same old story all summer
I cant remember how much rain I've watch vanish before reaching here
we did get some good rains at end of august and a week of cooler weather not much cooler to help us out
at least the grass is all green again not like back in august

this heat will be gone by this time tomorrow
weekend looks great
sunday the coolest with highs of 22 breezy winds
low of 10 sunday night into Monday morning
be good then open all the windows air it out again
Quoting 98. Grothar:

These are the two waves which I think will merge together.





And if they merge, will they go 'Boom' or 'Poof' ?
Quoting 80. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Let's think positive and say......those waves got some serious potential and by the satellite presentation some nice convection/RAIN! Hope they help you out!


:)
Quoting 48. Grothar:



Please try and use the correct terms in identifying these systems. It can be very confusing. That is a splat, not a puff!!









I just expectorated my taco. Looking for a sham-wow to clean up.
Quoting 107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



ya I am at Kennedy and 401 same old story all summer
I cant remember how much rain I've watch vanish before reaching here
we did get some good rains at end of august and a week of cooler weather not much cooler to help us out
at least the grass is all green again not like back in august

this heat will be gone by this time tomorrow
weekend looks great
sunday the coolest with highs of 22 breezy winds
low of 10 sunday night into Monday morning
be good then open all the windows air it out again




one of the ones from late august,, swooping out while the sun sets
Quoting 83. Gearsts:

The wave will have a weakness to its north so there's a really big change she will end north of the islands.


:(

Very little good news this year.
Mmmmm... Something seems to be percolating around DR/Cuba ... Could it be remnants of ex 92L?? Could there be a pulse?! Maybe not RIP after all?!
Quoting 98. Grothar:

These are the two waves which I think will merge together.





Suddenly they become trash waves :( But have to stay positive..
Quoting 97. liquidsquid:


I can attest to that! Compared to the last few years, it has been dramatically hot and humid! (Bloomfield, NY)

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-sta tion/dashboard?ID=KNYEASTB2#history



Has been very hot and humid here in Cleveland, too, it seems like it will never end. To people in the South days and days of 90 degree weather is normal but not for us. Especially when many people up north rely on simple window air conditioners or no AC at all.
The pattern for mid-September looks to be a pattern that will favor storms going out to sea.
Quoting 98. Grothar:

These are the two waves which I think will merge together.





If it does that what will you classify it as?
Quoting 73. bigwes6844:




It's always showing the MJO above us or coming towards us but it never quite seems to make it.
GFS remains boring
Quoting 116. Krycek1984:



Has been very hot and humid here in Cleveland, too, it seems like it will never end. To people in the South days and days of 90 degree weather is normal but not for us. Especially when many people up north rely on simple window air conditioners or no AC at all.


all things end
soon a few months from now be fighting with the snow
I think my first snowfall I will go out roll around in it
wearing shorts and a hoodie

I don't like the heat I prefer cooler temps cold even too be honest
get more done then without sweating
MJO will help the fishes that's it. Nothing for us.
Just kind of curious about something I've noticed this year. Maybe this has already been addressed earlier and I missed it.

Why did the good Doc (and much of the rest of the meteorological community) recently make the switch from "Cape" Verde to "Cabo" Verde? I know that through last year, and possibly even more recently, Dr. Masters used the name "Cape" Verde, but I have noticed that he has now switched to Cabo Verde. I've seen the same on local weather reports when discussing tropical systems. Obviously the name to the locals is Cabo Verde, but if we decided that from now on we were going to only use the name from the local language we would be reading about Zhōngguó, Kalaallit Nunaat, or Lýðveldið Ísland, and most English-speaking readers would have no idea what the heck they were reading.
Ian will be trash.Thankfully we only have two more months left until this season is over.
Quoting 118. Articuno:



If it does that what will you classify it as?
a gigantor blob for the fish to watch??
Quoting 123. LouisPasteur:

Just kind of curious about something I've noticed this year. Maybe this has already been addressed earlier and I missed it.
Why did the good Doc (and much of the rest of the meteorological community) recently make the switch from "Cape" Verde to "Cabo" Verde? ...

It has been addressed in here several times, latest just a couple of hours ago.

Here is what wiki tells us:

Historically, the name "Cape Verde" has been used in English for the archipelago and, since independence in 1975, for the country. In 2013, the Cape Verdean government determined that the Portuguese designation "Cabo Verde" would henceforth be used for official purposes, such as at the United Nations, even in English contexts. ...
The name of the country stems from the nearby Cap-Vert, on the Senegalese coast, which in its turn was originally named "Cabo Verde" when it was sighted by Portuguese explorers in 1444, a few years before the islands were discovered (verde is Portuguese for "green").
On 24 October 2013 it was announced at the United Nations that the official name should no longer be translated into other languages. Instead of "Cape Verde", the designation "Republic of Cabo Verde" is to be used. ....
Quoting 126. barbamz:


It has been addressed in here several times, latest just a couple of hours ago.

Here is what wiki tells us:

Historically, the name "Cape Verde" has been used in English for the archipelago and, since independence in 1975, for the country. In 2013, the Cape Verdean government determined that the Portuguese designation "Cabo Verde" would henceforth be used for official purposes, such as at the United Nations, even in English contexts. ...
The name of the country stems from the nearby Cap-Vert, on the Senegalese coast, which in its turn was originally named "Cabo Verde" when it was sighted by Portuguese explorers in 1444, a few years before the islands were discovered (verde is Portuguese for "green").
On 24 October 2013 it was announced at the United Nations that the official name should no longer be translated into other languages. Instead of "Cape Verde", the designation "Republic of Cabo Verde" is to be used. ....



Thanks. I see that I managed to miss that the question was posed earlier. Kind of odd that the United Nations would dictate whether or not a name should be translated. Looks like it took a while for the UN directive to trickle down.
Quoting 97. liquidsquid:


I can attest to that! Compared to the last few years, it has been dramatically hot and humid! (Bloomfield, NY)

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-sta tion/dashboard?ID=KNYEASTB2#history

The Summer may end with 27 or so because between now and Tues. there is a possibility of 2 or 3 more. After Sept 14th or 15th, I would imagine it would get rather difficult to get above 90 again.
Also with 85 days above 80, Rochester is only 6 days away from a record.
Quoting 126. barbamz:

Hello barbamz, I think many will be lost if it would be Deutschland instead of Germany
Checking in from Tucson!

I report that I have nothing to report!

Currently it is overcast, but the rain quit a couple of hours ago. There were no winds to speak of. We did get some much needed rain - everything from a trace to about an inch and a half - over the course of many hours. For us this is a beneficial rain, when we get an inch in half an hour, it just flows downstream leaving little of the water to soak into our aquifer. Todays rain soaked in nicely, there was very little runoff.

About Tucson (from no authority other than my foggy memories):

Tucson is a rather large sprawled out city for the population that lives here. We have a metro area that stretches from foothills in a couple of different mountain ranges, down into an alluvial valley. The micro-climate here varies greatly. 2 inches of rain can fall a block from an area that gets nothing. Wide area rains like the one we got this morning, typically occur during the winter rainy season, unless we get some good tropical moisture. Good tropical moisture doesn't happen very often.

Here is a link for your enjoyment/education:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucson%2C_Arizona

And now back to the dead blog...
Quoting 119. Krycek1984:



It's always showing the MJO above us or coming towards us but it never quite seems to make it.


That MJO chart has been reading green for the ATL intermittently since June... Not going to happen. Not to argue with all the weather experts in the world but I am becoming more and more convinced that the MJO doesn't have a steady 60-90 day cycle as is suggested. It just happens when it does. If we see lots of convection, the MJO is here. When we don't see any it's not. When it's coming, no one knows...
An off-topic but possibly interesting political and historic footnote in comment #1416 of my blog.
Quoting 129. European58:
Hello barbamz, I think many will be lost if it would be Deutschland instead of Germany

Hehe, that's true. But as far as I know we didn't ask the UN to implement our very name on the rest of the world yet. And, concerning the US, although we commonly use the abbreviation US(A), we, at the same time, use to translate it in German truly as "Die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika". Old nations probably got a thicker skin with being translated all the time.

Here is a good article about the request:

Cape Verde asks world to call it Cabo Verde
Wants its identity accepted
Boston Globe, by Akilah Johnson Globe Staff February 10, 2014
I also think the waves have come off too far north this season. I know some people are of the opinion that a wave won't spin above 12 or 13N, but I firmly believe that the reason we have seen so much inactivity and inability of waves to develop is they are too far north. Once the wind burst associated with them comes off, they drag a whole heap of African dust with them and then it's uphill from there. I submit that if the mean exit point have been 3-5 degress further south this year, we would have seen some major action by now.
135. beell
Quoting 127. LouisPasteur:



Thanks. I see that I managed to miss that the question was posed earlier. Kind of odd that the United Nations would dictate whether or not a name should be translated. Looks like it took a while for the UN directive to trickle down.


Some additional, and recently acquired information. Which may have been covered before.

Not the UN. The Republic of Cabo Verde made the request.

Boston Globe Feb 10th, 2014

"Late last year, the nation that had been known in the United Nations as Cape Verde made a rare request to change the official name of the country to Cabo Verde in all official languages of the United Nations . . . and request that it should not be translated.

"The United States received the same request in a November diplomatic note and approved the change in December, officially scrubbing Cape Verde from government databases and websites. Entries for Cabo Verde can now be found in the CIA's online World Factbook and the State Department's website..."


The USA is, a member of the UN and also the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA belongs to the US, the NHC belongs to NOAA...it all rolled downhill to the NHC and finally came to a stop here on the blog to upset our rigid orthodoxy regarding country names!


Nice Tropical Wave about to slam into Southflorida if it holds together.
Quoting 118. Articuno:



If it does that what will you classify it as?


The Fugi Wawa effect. Ha ha ha. Oh ah, please pass the pork fried rice. And can I have some more duck sauce as well?
Checking in from Tucson - Again!

So I finished typing the last check in, and checked the radar. Guess what? That's right! I could see ex Newton spinning over Tucson. At least I think it was Newton....

Anyway, the rain is coming back to my area northwest of the metro area. Just in time to go home from work. Did I mention I ride a motorcycle?

Oh well, at least I have a rain suit.
139. beell
Or...you could just read the whole piece posted by barb at 133!
:)
Quoting 139. beell:

Or...you could just read the whole piece posted by barb at 133!
:)

Sorry, beell - and I'm really NOT messing with you :-)
Quoting 136. HurriHistory:



Nice Tropical Wave about to slam into Southflorida if it holds together.
think i see a little spin about 24n 75w area. prob. wrong but maybe its going the same path of the last one Hermeine or whatever its name was
Quoting 135. beell:

Some additional, and recently acquired information. Which may have been covered before.

Not the UN. The Republic of Cabo Verde made the request.

Boston Globe Feb 10th, 2014

"Late last year, the nation that had been known in the United Nations as Cape Verde made a rare request to change the official name of the country to Cabo Verde in all official languages of the United Nations . . . and request that it should not be translated.

"The United States received the same request in a November diplomatic note and approved the change in December, officially scrubbing Cape Verde from government databases and websites. Entries for Cabo Verde can now be found in the CIA's online World Factbook and the State Department's website..."


The USA is, a member of the UN and also the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA belongs to the US, the NHC belongs to NOAA...it all rolled downhill to the NHC and finally came to a stop here on the blog to upset our rigid orthodoxy regarding country names!
I remember when Ivory Coast became Cote d'Ivoire while I was in high school. And don't get me started about Upper Volta becoming Burkina Faso!
143. beell
Quoting 140. barbamz:


Sorry, bell - and I'm really NOT messing with you :-)


No apologies! And you certainly have my encouragement to "mess"!
What is happening in the Atlantic basin? I thought we would be having some tropical storms or hurricanes to track right now with it being the peak of the season, water temps at their max, no El Niño, wind shear relatively low, and Moister atmospheric conditions. What is the missing link to this puzzle? I am scratching my head
Sigh, as it is once again very late in Germany, I have to go.

But first some humble remarks

1) about the Atlantic. As to be seen in the current MIMIC loop: no circulation at all at present with Ex 92L. Whereas Ex Hermine is still vigorously circling in her captivity off the coast of the northeastern US, but withouth any chance of recovery, I think. Meanwhile the tropical waves in the mid Atlantic are quite vivid; maybe we'll see something coming out. NHC hasn't dropped the probability completely yet.


Saved current loop, click to enlarge. Source.

2) about the cut off low in the central Mediterranean. It is currently tightening its circulation off the eastern coast of Sicily. ECMWF sees it a bit further east tomorrow. Afterwards conditions of forming a "medicane" obviously deteriorate. Models won't develop it, as far as I could see. Regardless, the system already caused the death of four people in Greece earlier today due to flash flooding. Euronews got a video in English about it.


Current (saved) radar loop.

Here another (updating) loop with cloud top temps.


Season of subtropical cyclones in the Med is just starting though, as they need the contrast of warm SST and colder air from the north aloft.

Good night everyone!
146. beell


Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:


I remember when Ivory Coast became Côte d’Ivoire while I was in high school. And don't get me started about Upper Volta becoming Burkina Faso!


I'm good as long as they don't change the locations of these places!
Quoting 118. Articuno:



If it does that what will you classify it as?


I'm gonna vote "Megablob"
Quoting 144. lobdelse81:

What is happening in the Atlantic basin? I thought we would be having some tropical storms or hurricanes to track right now with it being the peak of the season, water temps at their max, no El Niño, wind shear relatively low, and Moister atmospheric conditions. What is the missing link to this puzzle? I am scratching my head
Maybe too much activity in the Pacific. Also the lower than normal shear for a La Nina has not happened. Still time for things to change.
Quoting 133. barbamz:

Nice article, thank you.
Though I can understand the wish for a standard name (on the other hand, automatic translation should not be very hard for modern technology), for many countries it would be very problematic, as LouisPasteurs reaction stated.
Birma/Myanmar did cost me a few years to get used to.

Cabo Verde will be easely recognised, very little difference with Cape Verde.
Quoting 99. ChateauChalon:



Africa's westernmost is the edge of a penisula named Cap-Vert in Sénegal, where french is the official language, hence the french name.
Originally it was named Cabo Verde, since portuguese explorers wehre the first european to discover this area.


Yeah same thing...Cap/Cape/Cabo Vert/Verde. The point was about where Cabo/Cap Verde/Vert, the geographic feature, actually lies. It's not in the islands, but on the mainland.
Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:


I remember when Ivory Coast became Côte d’Ivoire while I was in high school. And don't get me started about Upper Volta becoming Burkina Faso!

The advantage of being European, Ivory Coast or Côte d’Ivoire, I only have to switch to french, still the same name for me (by the way Ivoorkust in dutch and when I'm not mistaken Elfenbeinküste in german).
Quoting 145. barbamz:

Good night everyone!


Good night, sleep well.
Quoting 148. unknowncomic:

Maybe too much activity in the Pacific. Also the lower than normal shear for a La Nina has not happened. Still time for things to change.
Do not forget the dry air from Africa.
Back to the weather:
Grothar thought it was possible for the two Atlantic waves to merge.
Does anyone know if this is possible and what would happen then?
Quoting 153. mossyhead:

Do not forget the dry air from Africa.

I think that's the largest reason why were having a slow peak of the season.
156. Kyon5


Not much SAL out there at the moment. Of course, that can change.
Waves hardly ever merge,..some may become absorbed by fronts etc,but merging is more a traffic term,than any met one.

🚀⛵🚴
Quoting 120. CaribBoy:

GFS remains boring

Certainly you might fing a geologist friend to help you scour the island for lithium to compound with iguana saliva or agave syrup? Spare the water. You sir have become quite sad about the lack of rain :)
The sound of silence!
Quoting 157. Patrap:

Waves hardly ever merge,..some may become absorbed by fronts etc,but merging is more a traffic term,than any met one.

🚀⛵🚴

I'm most lurker and don't know much about the science behind this, so maybe merge is not the right word, but if one wave overtakes (yeah, another traffic-term) the other, wonder if they'll go their own separate ways. The energy must be going somewhere.
Quoting 157. Patrap:


By the way, do you know this hurricane?
162. MahFL
Quoting 117. Climate175:

The pattern for mid-September looks to be a pattern that will favor storms going out to sea.


I smell fish on the menu.
163. flsky
I was in your neighborhood today. Nice day in NOLA.

Quoting 157. Patrap:

Waves hardly ever merge,..some may become absorbed by fronts etc,but merging is more a traffic term,than any met one.

🚀⛵🚴
it has rained seems more coming the heat has broke with more rains to come


just had a T shower here went out walking in it the temp must of dropped 25 degrees quite refreshing now with more too the west

Quoting 162. MahFL:



I smell fish on the menu.
hope its halibut that's my favorite
Quoting 159. help4u:

The sound of silence!





Quoting 155. chinookwx:


I think that's the largest reason why were having a slow peak of the season.
That can be partially attributed to the higher strength of the HP this season.
Quoting 133. barbamz:


Hehe, that's true. But as far as I know we didn't ask the UN to implement our very name on the rest of the world yet. And, concerning the US, although we commonly use the abbreviation US(A), we, at the same time, use to translate it in German truly as "Die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika". Old nations probably got a thicker skin with being translated all the time.

Here is a good article about the request:

Cape Verde asks world to call it Cabo Verde
Wants its identity accepted
Boston Globe, by Akilah Johnson Globe Staff February 10, 2014


One last comment about Cabo Verde before I give it a rest. The way it's pronounced in Portuguese is Cob (as in corn on the cob) Verd
That wave coming near the Lesser Antilles seems to be getting its act together (good convection) and it has a decent amount of spin to it. We might have a sleeper here waking up from its nap.
Quoting 169. dartboardmodel:

That wave coming near the Lesser Antilles seems to be getting its act together (good convection) and it has a decent amount of spin to it. We might have a sleeper here waking up from its nap.


Also had a weak closed low earlier this morning!
cob is kinda thinned out but wave heading to the midway mdr is looking ok




cob cob cob ya I could get use to that seems good cob it is
Quoting 153. mossyhead:

Do not forget the dry air from Africa.


Also, and what is, imo, proving to be the most essential ingredient in the mix, is a lack of vertical instability, in the tropical Atlantic. That lack seems to be the one common theme that has run through all of these recent quiet seasons. Also, if I recall, years that are neutral and in the midst of transitioning away from El Niño are not guaranteed to be active. While Andrew hit in 1992, there were still only six named storms that season, a year that saw an Èl Niño making the transition back to neutral.

Speaking of El Niño, are we going to see another decrease in the chance of a La Niña this year? I haven't seen any recent information. But a quick glance at the anomaly map seems to show the colder waters not quite able to fully establish themselves.

Then again, I could be completely wrong about all of this!
XXL/XX/XX
MARK
16N/55W

174. Kyon5
Quoting 172. ProphetessofDoom:



Also, and what is, imo, proving to be the most essential ingredient in the mix, is a lack of vertical instability, in the tropical Atlantic. That lack seems to be the one common theme that has run through all of these recent quiet seasons. Also, if I recall, years that are neutral and in the midst of transitioning away from El Ni%uFFFDo are not guaranteed to be active. While Andrew hit in 1992, there were still only six named storms that season, a year that saw an %uFFFDl Ni%uFFFDo making the transition back to neutral.

Speaking of El Ni%uFFFDo, are we going to see another decrease in the chance of a La Ni%uFFFDa this year? I haven't seen any recent information. But a quick glance at the anomaly map seems to show the colder waters not quite able to fully establish themselves.

Then again, I could be completely wrong about all of this!
Vertical instability did pick up a while ago although it has run below average for most of the season:



A cold-biased neutral phase seems to be around as well which should be enough to allow lower than average shear across the Atlantic:

Quoting 170. stormpetrol:



Also had a weak closed low earlier this morning!


So where do you think it is going to go? Move west and go deep into the Caribbean, move west northwest and affect Puerto Rico and the DR, or move northwest and move to the Bahamas???
Things just did not pan out once again for us in terms of relief
Wow we maybe ahead statistically but other than that little impact elsewhere
area of interests AOI's

Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/XX/XX
MARK
16N/55W




TS Ian by tomorrow night.
Quoting 178. CaribBoy:



TS Ian by tomorrow night.
lets wait for the number first maybe getting too far ahead of ourselves is the problem
180. wpb
Quoting 177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

area of interests AOI's


fish
here comes the next one


10:10 PM EDT Wednesday 07 September 2016
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:
City of Toronto
At 10:10 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a cluster of severe thunderstorms capable of producing very strong wind gusts and heavy rain.
Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/ beprepared/beprepared.html
Quoting 180. wpb:

fish


lol
184. Ed22
Quoting 178. CaribBoy:



TS Ian by tomorrow night.
Maybe if its mention by NHC, it just meir coincident.
Quoting 153. mossyhead:

Do not forget the dry air from Africa.

And it's not just that it's dry, but that it's dusty, a significant difference. Dry air normally has a steep lapse rate, and thus is colder aloft than humid tropical air at the same altitude, thus enhancing vertical instability. But that dust from the Sahara cancels the lapse rate out since the dust particles absorb solar UV and emit infrared: heat, and that's at all altitudes where the dust can get. So with dust, not only do you have dry air, but also warmer air aloft which effectively caps convection. And on top of that, the dust blocks the full effect of sunlight on the ocean surface, thereby reducing by some degree the amount of heat available for tropical development.

There seems to have been more dust this year than normal, and that in turn might be because pressure gradients over the Sahara and Sahel were stronger owing to the more northerly position of the ITCZ/monsoon trough while strong high pressure sat over the cooler North Atlantic. And that may be a result of global warming.
Quoting 178. CaribBoy:



TS Ian by tomorrow night.
Good evening CB......I mentioned yesterday that we would have development.
187. vis0

Quoting 153. mossyhead:

Do not forget the dry air from Africa.
Wondering what the outflow  of big storms (circled in countdown frame 17) will or is having on storms exiting WNW Africa.
Outflow not just as to wind maybe sending SAL a bit more WNW/NW ward also the rippling in the atmosphere once they pass over the pouches / TW exiting WNW Africa.

To watch aniGIF try link or read original comment in last Blogbyte of Dr. Masters' blog, here (autoscrolls to cmmnt once pg loads).
They say September 10th is the most active day of the season. 30 years ago they said it was September 12th.

When was the last time there was nothing of tropical storm strength or better in the Atlantic basin during September 10th, in whole or in part?
Keeper #182 is that Lake Ontario and environs?
Quoting 186. hydrus:

Good evening CB......I mentioned yesterday that we would have development.


Lets watch and see what happens. It's september 7th so anything is possible (wishcasting xD)
Quoting 189. TheBigBanana:

Keeper #182 is that Lake Ontario and environs?


Yes
192. IDTH
Quoting 174. Kyon5:

Vertical instability did pick up a while ago although it has run below average for most of the season:



A cold-biased neutral phase seems to be around as well which should be enough to allow lower than average shear across the Atlantic:



Look at the weakening PDO.
September 10 is an arbitrary peak , the peak can be in late August, middle to end of September, or within the first 2 weeks of October, September 10 is just an average of all the statistical peaks!
It's been years
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:



Lets watch and see what happens. It's september 7th so anything is possible (wishcasting xD)
Storm I have a lot of respect for you but there is a lot more going on here than averages
Quoting 193. stormpetrol:

September 10 is an arbitrary peak , the peak can be in late August, middle to end of September, or within the first 2 weeks of October, September 10 is just an average of all the statistical peaks!
Quoting 193. stormpetrol:

September 10 is an arbitrary peak , the peak can be in late August, middle to end of September, or within the first 2 weeks of October, September 10 is just an average of all the statistical peaks!
Quoting 193. stormpetrol:

September 10 is an arbitrary peak , the peak can be in late August, middle to end of September, or within the first 2 weeks of October, September 10 is just an average of all the statistical peaks!
It is worth pointing out that, with the exception of 2013, the past 5 seasons' strongest cyclones have come during the month of October. Ophelia in 2011, Sandy in 2012, Gonzalo in 2014, and Joaquin in 2015.
198. Ed22
Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/XX/XX
MARK
16N/55W


This could be invest 93L by tomorrow, if not Friday; wind-shear isn't a problem for now.
Quoting 196. CaribBoy:




Once again what modicum of action there is goes north... And yet Carib continues to complain. ;-)
200. Ed22
Quoting 199. LemieT:



Once again what modicum of action there is goes north... And yet Carib continues to complain. ;-)
ex--92L is making a come back, look out Florida and Gulf coast.
201. Ed22
Quoting 199. LemieT:



ex---92L coming back to life, back to reality.
202. Ed22
Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/XX/XX
MARK
16N/55W


Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase in association with a approaching tropical wave with an area of low pressure, gradual development is possible if current trend continues.
XXL/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 199. LemieT:



Once again what modicum of action there is goes north... And yet Carib continues to complain. ;-)


Unfortunately for me, it may skirt the N Leewards and not bring significant rain. But on the other hand, there is a very slight chance that we see another Gonzalo-type system lol.
Quoting 203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/INV/XX/XX



Developing CDO xD
Small systems are stressing.
Caribbean becomes the low shear area.
Quoting 206. CaribBoy:

Small systems are stressing.


Seems that's all we have these days.
It is entirely possible that we have seen the best this season has to offer. Right now conditions (minus the intangible MJO) are as good as they have been in a while. Still the Atlantic can't get it cranking. It's almost as if the weather has been artificially altered...
Each model run shows so much inconsistency ill just wait until something develops
Looking pretty moist near Africa at the moment

Link
212. Ed22
Quoting 205. CaribBoy:



Developing CDO xD
This tropical disturbance continues to grow in size, i hope continues to do so, then NHC will mention it.

Quoting 203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/INV/XX/XX



resurrection of 92l is not impossible and this season just has a feeling to it.  the water is really hot and things may start getting interesting in the atl/gom with the mjo aligning.  if the wind shear breaks down things can get cooking quickly.

if nothing else 92l has moistened the air.  if the wind shear clears out it could be all systems go.....look at the very thin hint of feeder bands and the symmetrical look of them.  like i say if the wind shear pocket clears out of the caribbean it could be game on. 
That little system near the L.A. Is starting to look impressive, despite the dry air wrapped around its western and northern flanks. Maybe it's drawing in moisture from the east? Whatever the case, lots of new thunderstorm development in the last few hours.

Been watching that all week. LLC is not as good as it was before. Might come back though!

Edit: It does have an high at (anti cyclone) 850ht just south of it. HOPE?

Quoting 173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/XX/XX
MARK
16N/55W


Not yet, been there for 6 days. Not much happening yet!

Quoting 178. CaribBoy:



TS Ian by tomorrow night.
Is it just me, or does the size and direction of that little L.A blob near 15N and 55W remind anyone of a certain 1992 system?
A midnight observation... Perhaps the "Sandy effect" is the new norm

Here comes Lester...
Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued at least one post tropical cyclone "cone" for Lester...


Newton
Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton rated a just (a) single NHC advisory before he lost it. "Lost it" meaning he became a mere rainshadow of his former self. Here's Nweton's last "cone."


Neither a TD when NWS issued a cone - which, it appears, both rated due to a continued threat to life and property or however the new policy is worded.

Now, if Lester should pull a Freda, does the NHC pick the storm back up when it occurs inside 140W (or -140 however you want to look at it)? Has a "Freda effect" been written into the NWS policy? Should every post-tropical cyclone from the Central and Eastern Pacific be followed by CPHC or NHC until it no longer poses a threat to US soil?

Looks like Lester's going north of the 49th parallel. Okay. Then I ask what about SE Alaska... it could rebuild there or, worse yet, in the Gulf of Alaska... ? What if Lester becomes a Bering Sea storm? Of course, this is ridiculous, but NOAA's knee-jerk reaction to the national reaction about Sandy-caused weather is way sillier than my midnight musings.

I see it's now 1 a.m. Hope someone appreciates this comment.
92L left very little moisture in it's trail. This poor bugger has been making it on it's own all week. Finally showing a little organization.


Quoting 213. odinslightning:




resurrection of 92l is not impossible and this season just has a feeling to it.  the water is really hot and things may start getting interesting in the atl/gom with the mjo aligning.  if the wind shear breaks down things can get cooking quickly.

if nothing else 92l has moistened the air.  if the wind shear clears out it could be all systems go.....look at the very thin hint of feeder bands and the symmetrical look of them.  like i say if the wind shear pocket clears out of the caribbean it could be game on. 

Quoting 219. swflurker:

92L left very little moisture in it's trail. This poor bugger has been making it on it's own all week. Finally showing a little organization.





If ex 92L regenerates, we should call it the Lazarus Low =P
This thing is taking off and of course the blog is dead

000
WTPZ35 KWNH 080826
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152016
200 AM MST THU SEP 08 2016

...NEWTON HAS DISSIPATED...

[snip]

RAINFALL...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NEWTON HAS
ENDED...HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF NEWTON IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 11 PM MST

...ARIZONA...
MILLER CARR CANYON ALERT GAUGE: 5.67
DAN SADDLE: 5.04
TUCSON 4 SW: 4.60
SIERRA VISTA 8 S: 4.46
PARK TANK: 4.33
RINCON: 4.27
ITALIAN TRAP: 3.74
FLORIDA CANYON: 3.30
GREEN MOUNTAIN: 3.03
NOON CREEK NEAR SAFFORD: 2.95
JACOBSON CANYON: 2.87
HUACHUCA CITY 4 W: 2.74
RIO RICO 4.4 WSW: 2.43
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT: 2.09
EMPIRE: 1.97
NOGALES INTL ARPT: 1.45
DEAD HORSE WASH: 1.45
COLUMBUS WASH: 1.42
SANTA CRUZ R. AT CANOA: 1.38
BENSON: 1.37

...NEW MEXICO...
TEXICO 6.0 S: 3.43
MOSQUERO 15 SSE: 1.71
LAS CRUCES: 1.00


A pretty good dousing for any part of the world, much less the SW. Over a long enough time not to cause any significant problems, thankfully.
Just a reminder of how costly over estimating the impacts of wind shear can be Link
good/morning....surprising.atlantic
I maybe wrong, but I thought I've read somewhere on here that a kidney bean shape is an indication of storm intensification, especially in the Atlantic?
TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 17N
with axis near 31W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind
shear and abundant moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft
support scattered showers and tstms from 05N to 15N between 25W
and 36W. Significant development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a
little more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while this system moves
westward and then west-northwestward into the central Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean waters extending from
08N to 19N with axis near 62W, moving W at 20 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer
wind shear. However, water vapor imagery indicate there is strong
dry air subsidence in that region, which continue to hinder shower
activity.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 10N to
21N with axis near 84W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Except for the far NW Caribbean, abundant moisture in the
wave environment, favorable deep layer wind shear and diffluence
aloft support scattered showers and isolated tstms between 80W
and 85W.

From 5a.m. EDT TW discussion
228. SLU
Quoting 209. LemieT:

It is entirely possible that we have seen the best this season has to offer. Right now conditions (minus the intangible MJO) are as good as they have been in a while. Still the Atlantic can't get it cranking. It's almost as if the weather has been artificially altered...


Yes. The Atlantic feels tampered-with like a lying gf. Something certainly unusual and even unnatural seems to be happening with our tropical weather. Is the US major hurricane drought a manifestation of it too? A real scientist who can come up with an objective and unbiased analysis needs to study these strange patterns on our behalf.
Quoting 225. MJ0ZS4:

I maybe wrong, but I thought I've read somewhere on here that a kidney bean shape is an indication of storm intensification, especially in the Atlantic?


i think that was garbanzo bean shape

LOL
:) good morning everyone!
Quoting 228. SLU:



Yes. The Atlantic feels tampered-with like a lying gf. Something certainly unusual and even unnatural seems to be happening with our tropical weather. Is the US major hurricane drought a manifestation of it too? A real scientist who can come up with an objective and unbiased analysis needs to study these strange patterns on our behalf.

I hardly think ten years of suppressed activity after the 2005 record season is indictive of anything but the human capacity to seek out patterns in what is essentially the spin of a roulette wheel. Just because it's been black the last few spins doesn't mean it's going to be red or black the next time.
The atlantic is a windy dessert right now
Quoting 228. SLU:



Yes. The Atlantic feels tampered-with like a lying gf. Something certainly unusual and even unnatural seems to be happening with our tropical weather. Is the US major hurricane drought a manifestation of it too? A real scientist who can come up with an objective and unbiased analysis needs to study these strange patterns on our behalf.
There have been ideas thrown around about silver iodide seeding around tropical systems, causing increased precipitation in the storm's inflow, thus robbing it of moisture.

As far as I know, Cuba is the only country that is openly engaging in cloud seeding, and that is only as a desperate measure to fight drought, not as a cyclone neuterer.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were some covert attempts at neutering tropical cyclones going on, but it could just as well be random chance that nothing really takes off anymore.

Personally, I'm happy not to have strong cyclones headed for my property. The excess rain is bad for my fruit trees, and hurricane winds would surely rip my house apart.
Both the overnight EURO and GFS added development of the east Atlantic wave.

Also the wave east of the Antilles looking interesting this morning...
Quoting 209. LemieT:

It is entirely possible that we have seen the best this season has to offer. Right now conditions (minus the intangible MJO) are as good as they have been in a while. Still the Atlantic can't get it cranking. It's almost as if the weather has been artificially altered...
Maybe they have altered it some how, but I don't believe we as a species are that smart, and hopefully never will be.
we started to enter the cycle 3 years ago of quiet tropical seasons for the next 10 to 20 years ... i was reading about it ... it comes back around every 10 to 20 years
Quoting 232. Forsaken:

There have been ideas thrown around about silver iodide seeding around tropical systems, causing increased precipitation in the storm's inflow, thus robbing it of moisture.

As far as I know, Cuba is the only country that is openly engaging in cloud seeding, and that is only as a desperate measure to fight drought, not as a cyclone neuterer.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were some covert attempts at neutering tropical cyclones going on, but it could just as well be random chance that nothing really takes off anymore.

Personally, I'm happy not to have strong cyclones headed for my property. The excess rain is bad for my fruit trees, and hurricane winds would surely rip my house apart.
Yes, no one wants a strong hurricane destroying their house, but they are a part of nature, and are beneficial in a lot of was, and if man is stupid enough to build structures that cannot withstand a hurricane, then whose fault is that, that's right mans fault. I do hope we are not trying to alter the weather, because as a species we don.t have the intelligence to do it safely.
Quoting 237. NativeSun:

Yes, no one wants a strong hurricane destroying their house, but they are a part of nature, and are beneficial in a lot of was, and if man is stupid enough to build structures that cannot withstand a hurricane, then whose fault is that, that's right mans fault. I do hope we are not trying to alter the weather, because as a species we don.t have the intelligence to do it safely.


But we are doing it. Unintended. Certainly not controlled.






Morning showers. Nice.
Quoting 235. mamothmiss:

we started to enter the cycle 3 years ago of quiet tropical seasons for the next 10 to 20 years ... i was reading about it ... it comes back around every 10 to 20 years



Hey, how's the weather in DAYTONA ??
Quoting 234. NativeSun:

Maybe they have altered it some how, but I don't believe we as a species are that smart, and hopefully never will be.


I'm willing to bet my left gum drop that no one is altering the weather in the Atlantic
Last night I said that the area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic was very disorganised and move west with the easterly flow for several days..The projected path by the models will change to a more west track.The models try to develop a cyclone to quickly. By the time the wave reaches 40W the STR would have been rebuilt and stronger, thereby keeping the disturbance at a lower latitude and into the Caribbean Sea. Whether it forms into anything is still up in the air as the models have not been to good in initialising these large tropical waves. Time will tell.

Good morning. Looks like another load of heavy rains is hitting southwestern Greece right now.
(Saved current loop; source for updates)

Damage assessment in Austria after a fierce mudslide earlier.
The Austrian town swamped with mud
Residents in an Austrian town swamped by mud have begun to survey the damage.
BBC video, 07 Sep, From the section Europe
Could not have said it any better. Couple of days ago I was reading the NWS out of Melbourne that here on the coast the easterly flow would settle in as the High strengthens and a chance of coastal showers.
Quoting 243. stoormfury:

Last night I said that the area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic was very disorganised and move west with the easterly flow for several days..The projected path by the models will change to a more west track.The models try to develop a cyclone to quickly. By the time the wave reaches 40W the STR would have been rebuilt and stronger, thereby keeping the disturbance at a lower latitude and into the Caribbean Sea. Whether it forms into anything is still up in the air as the models have not been to good in initialising these large tropical waves. Time will tell.
Quoting 244. barbamz:


Good morning. Looks like another load of heavy rains is hitting southwestern Greece right now.
(Saved current loop; source for updates)



Afternoon to you barbamz - looks as if still going to be a little warm where you are at - highs in the mid-80's F (~29 C). At least it is not Spain.
Quoting 245. GeoffreyWPB:




Finally they recognized that little swirl at/around 60W. Nothing really going on with it vorticity-wise at the moment though. However, it'll be interesting to see what happens with it over the next few days.
Quoting 230. MJ0ZS4:


I hardly think ten years of suppressed activity after the 2005 record season is indictive of anything but the human capacity to seek out patterns in what is essentially the spin of a roulette wheel. Just because it's been black the last few spins doesn't mean it's going to be red or black the next time.



I think while you are true that we seek patterns and there can be some rough patterns or general trends we can discern (if not scientific study would have no reason to exist), I doubt it is simply a case of the proverbial roulette wheel. There has been a large scale shift in cyclone behaviour in these years that makes for some confusing signals.
Don't act suprised :)

Quoting 235. mamothmiss:

we started to enter the cycle 3 years ago of quiet tropical seasons for the next 10 to 20 years ... i was reading about it ... it comes back around every 10 to 20 years


So no rain for Daytona?
253. Ed22
Quoting 250. Grothar:

Don't act suprised :)


This little swirl has good rotation with it at the moment, let see what throughout today. The next disturbance behind it looks to be Caribbean bound to me.
254. Ed22
Quoting 251. Grothar:


Its getting active now in the Central Atlantic.
255. beell
Quoting 248. daddyjames:



Finally they recognized that little swirl at/around 60W. Nothing really going on with it vorticity-wise at the moment though. However, it'll be interesting to see what happens with it over the next few days.


It has some upper level support (divergence) from a narrow ULL (black dashed line represents the axis, upper support circled). That should continue for 2-3 days at least.



This morning's GFS has a bit of trouble hanging on to it-but seems to track a surface wave/trough through the Bahamas and towards the SE coast.

ECMWF develops a weak, closed circulation (at 850 mb) well offshore of NC towards the end of the weekend. Perhaps that was enough to tip the NHC to 20% 5 days out.

Skinny-a** TUTT still in place extending southwest from the mid/upper cut-off that captured PTC Hermine to the BOC. Windy up there.

"Conditional" development. "Conditional" is the word to use when there is not much going on while you wait.
Quoting 235. mamothmiss:

we started to enter the cycle 3 years ago of quiet tropical seasons for the next 10 to 20 years ... i was reading about it ... it comes back around every 10 to 20 years


I made this same assumption after 2014 since I took the streak back to 2011 (2012 not withstanding). These cycles have always roughly existed.

What I find most interesting/concerning/encouraging depending on the hat you want to wear, is the ability of most systems even under favorable base state conditions (cue this year). It is very strange to see waves that in other seasons would have blossomed simply struggle and puff their way across the Atlantic. Granted this year we have had "above average" numbers thus far, but the vast majority of storms have had a really difficult time consolidating even when conditions have said they shouldn't.

Even the models, of which most have been improved in the last few years, don't know what to do anymore.

Most people will probably say SAL but then that has always been a factor. Maybe the Sahara has grown to the point where average dust concentrations are much higher than they have ever been, hence the abject dryness.
AL, 93, 2016090718, , BEST, 0, 157N, 532W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 93, 2016090800, , BEST, 0, 163N, 549W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 93, 2016090806, , BEST, 0, 167N, 560W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 93, 2016090812, , BEST, 0, 170N, 570W, 25, 1009, DB
Daytona has dried out nicely since Monday. Highs have dropped from mid 90's to 89 or so, makes for much more pleasant golf weather.
dont see anything from the mdr getting close to the conus.

Brand new invest guys.
Still early. Not much to go on...



Quoting 261. GeoffreyWPB:

Still early. Not much to go on...






I put our force field on, seems to be working
Quoting 255. beell:



It has some upper level support (divergence) from a narrow ULL (black dashed line represents the axis, upper support circled). That should continue for 2-3 days at least.



This morning's GFS has a bit of trouble hanging on to it-but seems to track a surface wave/trough through the Bahamas and towards the SE coast.

ECMWF develops a weak, closed circulation (at 850 mb) well offshore of NC towards the end of the weekend. Perhaps that was enough to tip the NHC to 20% 5 days out.

Skinny-a** TUTT still in place extending southwest from the mid/upper cut-off that captured PTC Hermine to the BOC. Windy up there.

"Conditional" development. "Conditional" is the word to use when there is not much going on while you wait.


What you are calling the Skinny * TUTT, the NHC is calling the T-wave. Is there technically a difference? I suppose maybe in the level of the atmosphere?

I noticed the divergence too, and it appears visually as if it has spin, but - at least the last time I checked CIMSS - you can't find an vorticity associated directly with where the convection/visual spin is - except maybe a faint signal at 750 mb. However, I did not bother to see if what CIMS was showing was the most current "view". Apparently, I was not looking at the most current product at that time :D

Interestingly, based upon where the models track this swirl at 60W, it looks as if it'll end up in the area that weakens the ridge allowing for the next wave to be pulled north. Perhaps a contributing factor?

For the second AOI, seems as if NHC is discounting the GFS model run, as it appears their area of potential spin-up is west of what the GFS is currently indicating.

[Edited]
93L...

Any thoughts on how 93L will impact Punta Cana?
Quoting 266. niekamdt:

Any thoughts on how 93L will impact Punta Cana?


It won't - directly.
Quoting 265. GeoffreyWPB:

93L...




This is the one I've been talking about.
I think the mjo is currently in the Atlantic, a lot of convection starting to fire.
271. beell
Quoting 264. daddyjames:



What you are calling the Skinny * TUTT, the NHC is calling the T-wave. Is there technically a difference? I suppose maybe in the level of the atmosphere?

I noticed the divergence too, and it appears visually as if it has spin, but - at least the last time I checked CIMSS - you can't find an vorticity associated directly with where the convection/visual spin is - except maybe a faint signal at 750 mb. However, I did not bother to see if what CIMS was showing was the most current "view".

Interestingly, based upon where the models track this swirl at 60W, it looks as if it'll end up in the area that weakens the ridge allowing for the next wave to be pulled north. Perhaps a contributing factor?

For the second AOI, seems as if NHC is discounting the GFS model run, as it appears their area of potential spin-up is west of what the GFS is currently indicating.


I posted a 200 mb chart. Way up high in the atmosphere in an attempt to explain the existence of this disturbance. A TUTT is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.

I was talking about the disturbance that just received an Invest designation. The NHC refers to this feature as not a t-wave but:

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


This is the feature receiving upper support from the ULL in the bottom-right corner of the model frame. The bit about the TUTT was simply an upper level look downstream of the disturbance. I slapped an axis on that also.



Sorry about the miscomm-I do better next time!
Quoting 271. beell:



I was talking about the disturbance that just received an Invest designation. The NHC refers to this feature as not a t-wave but:

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


This is the feature receiving upper support from the ULL in the bottom-right corner of the model frame. The bit about the TUTT was an upper level look downstream of the disturbance. I slapped an axis on that also.



Sorry about the miscomm-I do better next time!


I'll cut you some slack, but just this once! ;)

Edit: NHC refers to the t-wave preceding the disturbance in the Tropical Discussion:
"A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean waters extending from
08N to 19N with axis near 62W, moving W at 20 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer
wind shear. However, water vapor imagery indicate there is strong
dry air subsidence in that region, which continue to hinder shower
activity."
Quoting 214. MJ0ZS4:

That little system near the L.A. Is starting to look impressive, despite the dry air wrapped around its western and northern flanks. Maybe it's drawing in moisture from the east? Whatever the case, lots of new thunderstorm development in the last few hours.




I initially read your comment as the system near Louisiana and thought WTH happened over night haha.
274. beell
Quoting 272. daddyjames:



I'll cut you sme slack, but just this once! ;)


Thanks! I'll leave it with ya'll for now.
Later.
:)
Quoting 268. daddyjames:



It won't - directly.


Is Aleppo out of the woods?
Alright, since Winter is coming, I thought I might make the naming list for this year.

Link
Quoting 275. GeoffreyWPB:



Is Aleppo out of the woods?


As far as tropical storms? Yes. As far as man-made cruelty towards one another? - Unfortunately, no.
280. Ed22
Quoting 267. Grothar:




Hmmm we could have Ian in 48 or so.
281. Ed22
Quoting 269. Grothar:



This is the one I've been talking about.
Invest 93L on the rise.
Somewhat disappointed that 93L may miss us...
283. JRRP
INVEST with an eye... interesting lol


Is it me or the orange has shifted south and west lol
285. Ed22
Quoting 277. Grothar:


This could be invest 94L by tomorrow morning.
The big picture...

Quoting 283. JRRP:

INVEST with an eye... interesting lol


Yeah I noticed that too. That would be hilarious if the little bugger was a storm already with an eye trying to form and the NHC was snoozing on the job, shoot they just acknowledged it an invest with a 20% just an hour or two ago lol.
Quoting 261. GeoffreyWPB:

Still early. Not much to go on...






Just wanna say I was comparing the potential track and storm to Andrew early this morning, looks like the NHC is playing catch up =P
289. Ed22
Quoting 283. JRRP:

INVEST with an eye... interesting lol

Let see if it continues to show signs of development.
Quoting 284. CaribBoy:



Is it me or the orange has shifted south and west lol




West, yes. South, no yes (I stand corrected).
yesterday cmc had 93 following the bamm track Ft Lauderdale as a weak storm. today its OTS
Looks like the 1st of 2 big fronts are comming down through the south east beginning of next week
293. MahFL
Quoting 236. canehater1:




Fish !
WoW.......INVEST 93L with what appears to be a CLOSED EYE formed already........interesting. It had a strong circulation yesterday when I looked at it, and I could not figure then why an Invest had not been called!
Quoting 221. MJ0ZS4:

This thing is taking off and of course the blog is dead




The blog is dead because we've had way too many false alarms over the past few years with systems like this one, that look good the first 48 to 72 hours and then just fall apart.
Quoting 294. TampaSpin:

WoW.......INVEST 93L with what appears to be a CLOSED EYE formed already........interesting. It had a strong circulation yesterday when I looked at it, and I could not figure then why an Invest had not been called!


Yeah it has carried the eye like feature for several frames now with very nice spin. I doubt the mini eye will last much longer, especially if those storms trying to fire on the north side loop around. Be fun to investigate when I get back later. But does tell this thing has a lot of capability on its side if conditions can cooperate.
Could be looking at a large waterspout that is part of the disturbed area of 93 L. If it is not and continues to show up on visible satellite the rest of the day then there is a small compact hurricane.



Quoting 293. MahFL:



Fish !


One fish, two fish!
93L...

Quoting 275. GeoffreyWPB:



Is Aleppo out of the woods?

Nice!
There's a little damage control going on in the Johnson camp right now. To his credit, I doubt many of our fellow Americans know what Aleppo is, and the crisis going on.

Off politics now. Went to the BMW Golf tourney yesterday. It was 90, but felt like 105 out there. Strangest few weeks in Aug/sept I can remember.
I think the "eye" you guys are seeing with 93L is actually dry air entrainment.
Quoting 295. HurriHistory:



The blog is dead because we've had way too many false alarms over the past few years with systems like this one, that look good the first 48 to 72 hours and then just fall apart.
true but just once is all we need for it not too fall apart
I have been doing this for some time.....but 93L has strong Vorticity, has strong Divergence aloft, and Convergence at the bottom.....with what appears to be an EYE. I don't think I have seen anything go from an INVEST to a Named storm in a couple of hours....BUT....I don't know what to think!
Kudos to the wu night shift whose observations picked up on the new now-invest several hours before NHC called it!
Quoting 301. HurricaneFan:

I think the "eye" you guys are seeing with 93L is actually dry air entrainment.

I agree however this seems to have a well defined surface circulation and if convection can re-fire and maintain itself we might get Ian from this storm
Could be just dry air that has got twisted in fooling us to appear to be a formed eye. I am thinking this is what we are seeing!
93L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

To be honest, I thought Aleppo might be the first name on the winter storm list.
:/
93L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
17N/57W



note
for every 100 Easterly Tropical Waves only 4 to 5 of them will ever form into a Formative Tropical Cyclone
If you look at the rainbow loop.......you don't see any eye feature at all.
Quoting 307. TampaSpin:

Could be just dry air that has got twisted in fooling us to appear to be a formed eye. I am thinking this is what we are seeing!


93 daytime waning cycle showing normal dev cycle so far
if its going to go
it should begin the tropical cyclone phase later today
as the sun falls in the sky and rebuild stronger convection then the 12 hrs prior

if not then it will likely be another problematic problem system
Eye tinks some may need eye glasses.

Quoting 294. TampaSpin:

WoW.......INVEST 93L with what appears to be a CLOSED EYE formed already........interesting. It had a strong circulation yesterday when I looked at it, and I could not figure then why an Invest had not been called!
no convection it started around 2 or 3 local time here at my local time and has completed almost its first 12 hr cycle
AXNT20 KNHC 080903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
503 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 17N
with axis near 31W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind
shear and abundant moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft
support scattered showers and tstms from 05N to 15N between 25W
and 36W. Significant development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a
little more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while this system moves
westward and then west-northwestward into the central Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean waters extending from
08N to 19N with axis near 62W, moving W at 20 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer
wind shear. However, water vapor imagery indicate there is strong
dry air subsidence in that region, which continue to hinder shower
activity.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 10N to
21N with axis near 84W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Except for the far NW Caribbean, abundant moisture in the
wave environment, favorable deep layer wind shear and diffluence
aloft support scattered showers and isolated tstms between 80W
and 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W and continues along 10N31W to 07N43W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave along 31W,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N E of 19W and
from 05N to 10N between 47W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge anchored over the SE CONUS extends SSW
across the basin and provides ESE gentle to moderate wind flow. Water
Vapor imagery continue to show strong dry air subsidence across
the entire basin, which favors fair weather. A tropical wave
currently over W Caribbean waters will move across the Yucatan
Peninsula today and into the Bay of Campeche Friday. Some showers
and tstms associated with the wave are expected in the Yucatan
Channel and Peninsula as well as the SW basin through Sunday.
Little changes expected elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave
that is moving across the western Caribbean generating scattered
showers and tstms over central and eastern Cuba and adjacent
waters, including the Windward Passage. A second tropical wave is
moving from the Lesser Antilles to the E Caribbean basin this
morning. However, little shower activity is anticipated with it. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for details. The second area
with active weather is the SW basin where the tropical wave, low
pressure over NW Colombia and the presence of the E Pacific
monsoon trough support heavy showers and tstms within 150 nm off
the coast of Colombia. Fair weather and moderate trades dominate
elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to the Yucatan Peninsula
today.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave, currently moving across the W Caribbean Sea
support scattered to isolated showers in the Windward Passage and
cloudiness over Haiti. This shower activity will cease after
sunrise today as the wave continues to move W toward the Yucatan
Peninsula. Fair weather is then expected to continue across the
Island through early Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between an upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and
a broad upper anticyclone centered over the central Bahamas support
scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas and the Great
Bahama Bank. That shower activity is also associated with a
surface trough that extends from 26N74W to 18N76W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are also N of 26N between 67W and 75W. Lastly,
a surface trough in the deep tropics supports heavy showers and
tstms from 15N to 20N between 53W and 58W. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a broad but weak surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
Quoting 308. Patrap:

93L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop




It just winked at you.
318. JRRP
Quoting 301. HurricaneFan:

I think the "eye" you guys are seeing with 93L is actually dry air entrainment.

lol I know
was joking
Quoting 298. Icantthinkofausernam:



One fish, two fish!

red fish! blue fish!
Where are all the westcasters at? They do spice things up....
Quoting 305. Barefootontherocks:

Kudos to the wu night shift whose observations picked up on the new now-invest several hours before NHC called it!

Hey I posted about it last night. I was post #169. Do I win.... do i get to receive a cookie or something... anything...lol!
93L why are you so small...
Looks like the E\Central Atlantic wave could affect the Lesser Antilles xD
Quoting 321. dartboardmodel:


Hey I posted about it last night. I was post #169. Do I win.... do i get to receive a cookie or something... anything...lol!
Hi, Yes. I was up late, dartboard. I saw what you (and others) did. :)
Had to check with Grothar to determine the official cookies I can may give out for invest spotting.
For you and all...
Quoting 305. Barefootontherocks:

Kudos to the wu night shift whose observations picked up on the new now-invest several hours before NHC called it!


Anytime Bare! :)
Hostile environment.

Looking at 93L.... didn't it just form off a trough? Like the same way Rita formed? Rita didn't form from a wave, she formed from the west end of a trough right, in the same area, right? Just kind of out of the blue like that. There was a wave somewhere in the picture with pre-Rita but it wasn't a strong one, certainly not a candidate for development until it merged with the stationary surface trough?
Quoting 324. Barefootontherocks:

Hi, Yes, I was up late dartboard. I saw what you (and others) did. :)
Had to check with Grothar to determine the official cookies I can give out for invest spotting.
For you and all...


Good grief am I hungry....those look very tasty:-)
329. vis0
Quoting 206. CaribBoy:

Small systems are stressing.
Quoting 208. LemieT:



Seems that's all we have these days.
or the weather (physics within the lab called Earth) is stressing when trying to create

1] a small or the start up of a (TS) system (maybe due to atmos. v2.0)
2] (WARNING:: number 2  delves into the "thought to be imagined" device that influences weather so go to next comment if that bugs anyone)
Tropical spin ups/ weather patterns  are stressing in part due to #1** and that so far  from 2009/2010 ATL basin  TS have to follow the rules of  a majeekal device.
(Reminder:: 5 more years of the present full cycle of this majeekal device in which at least 2 maybe 5 years will act as the normal (120/128 yrs cycle) and 2years will have  2 times the odds for big symmetrical  TS, again the imagined device flows on the 11 year closest star cycle which is ~11 years for the complex planet.)

**The closer to the majeekal device weather patterns are the "odder" the weather pattern are as in the  "broken Jetstream" near N/Cntrl America, not as broken over Pakistan, less broken over SHem's cPac...though i think sar2401 flying the plane backwards on sar2401's trip around the world in 80 "daze" might  be causing nature to do a double take thus damaging jet stream.   
    Hope sar2401 got to see the northern lights i heard they were out of this world.     Hoping one day BOSE points large acoustic (tunnel)  speakers** towards the Auroras to see if the turn into audio decibel displays  The 2:1 tunnels BOSE uses i sent to Zenith, Bose and Phillips way back in the 1970s not saying they copied but at worst notice the 2:1 theory being used i've stated for decades (okay fer WxU'rs that read my 2nd membership at WxU ~6 years) that black holes use to turn "captured light" into an output of resonances lower than 32 BELOW zero Hz...or i could be 99.9% wrong

finally,
 3) Readers are stressing out in reading this comment.


i see that Grothar's thought of merging or what others call the dominating of 1 blob CLOSE over another blob...

 (not stripping a blob that is for a bit more separated weather systems / blobs these are piratically shaking "hands")

...is kind of happening in a sort of bigger blobs acting like a shady car sale person saying "come over here friend, have i got a deal fer you"  while placing  (big blobs) arms around anything within 10 degrees Longitudinally...could that be the chosen one...IAN? or could the constant  LLevel  spin keeper pointed out almost 3 days ago now near the take off point of an infamous "A" Hurricane of 1992 try to avoid the front/trough with the help of HERMINE and suddenly strengthen?

[zilly] another thing as to keeper, you made a big error you stated faster n faster in early/mid June that the NYC area would have a weekend of "skinsense" temperatures of 108F...HA! we had 2.5  and going into lower 100s in a few days for a couple of days...so its really faster n faster n faster n  fas...[zilly] [w/ touch of the real] for $keptics remember they'll be "cooler" periods,  BUT that will MOSTLY be cooler as to the recent record breaking warm years just like there period where CO2 levels off a few months as Earth farts (via yet undiscovered clear to very pale yellow  outward static/lighting similar to sprites  but then its back to the decades of risiNG.

Best to stay tuned to Wunderground, if you want to remain informed as to all things weather/nature....plus its lightly sprinkled with nuts to keep the mind alert on slow daze..
Quoting 327. DakZekeDez:

Looking at 93L.... didn't it just form off a trough? Like the same way Rita formed? Rita didn't form from a wave, she formed from a trough right, in the same area, right? Just kind of out of the blue like that.


Rita formed from interaction between a trough that broke off of a decaying front and a tropical wave that couldn't hold convection across the Atlantic. I think it was unexpected.
Quoting 330. AtHomeInTX:



Rita formed from interaction between a trough that broke off of a decaying front and a tropical wave that couldn't hold convection across the Atlantic. I think it was unexpected.

It was very unexpected... the wave/TD that became Katrina was always more of a matter of when rather than if (like Hermine this year) but Rita just seemed to crop up out of nowhere... that wave was really weak and the one behind it was the decent looking one and ended up becoming Philippe... I think that "decaying front" you speak of was the one that recurved and absorbed Ophelia about a week earlier.
320. muddertracker
10:07 AM CDT on September 08, 2016

Where are all the westcasters at? They do spice things up....



I would imagine that 99L exhausted them all (like the rest of us)!
Quoting 327. DakZekeDez:

Looking at 93L.... didn't it just form off a trough?

Like the same way Rita formed? Rita didn't form from a wave, she formed from a trough right, in the same area, right? Just kind of out of the blue like that.
Yes on 93L.

About Rita, I don't remember, but I wouldn't have known the difference back then. I mostly remember Rita not flinching when some speculated GOM waters would not sustain her well - due to upwelling from previous 2005 storms. Rita did teach me the meaning of "stadium eye"!

From the wu hurricane archives, Rita's track...
U.S. weather forecaster says La Nina no longer likely in fall, winter
by Reuters, Thursday, 8 September 2016 13:54 GMT
NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - A U.S. government weather forecaster reduced its outlook on Thursday for La Nina conditions to develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016/17, saying neutral conditions were more likely.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in a monthly forecast there was a 55 to 60 percent chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, meaning La Nina is no longer favored to occur. ...
Not sure if the trough had anything to do with 93L unlike Rita. Looks like it was just the wave, the trough is farther west/northwest
Quoting 332. DakZekeDez:


It was very unexpected... the wave/TD that became Katrina was always more of a matter of when rather than if (like Hermine this year) but Rita just seemed to crop up out of nowhere... that wave was really weak and the one behind it was the decent looking one and ended up becoming Philippe... I think that "decaying front" you speak of was the one that recurved and absorbed Ophelia about a week earlier.


Could be so. Was before I started following the tropics. Still have a lot to learn. Got a crash course between 2005-08. By 2008, and Edouard I figured I better see what was going on. Just in time for Ike.
Quoting 335. barbamz:

U.S. weather forecaster says La Nina no longer likely in fall, winterLink
by Reuters, Thursday, 8 September 2016 13:54 GMT
NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - A U.S. government weather forecaster reduced its outlook on Thursday for La Nina conditions to develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016/17, saying neutral conditions were more likely.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in a monthly forecast there was a 55 to 60 percent chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, meaning La Nina is no longer favored to occur. ...

Thank you. Wishcasters now have a good excuse why it is so quiet at the peak season.
Meanwhile, here in Northern Maine, we are 5 to 6 inches above normal...
"On this week’s map, short-term precipitation deficits (30–60 day), low streamflows, and dry soils led to the expansion of areas of Extreme Drought (D3) in the Finger Lakes District of New York as well as in southeastern New Hampshire. In Maine, short-term precipitation deficits (4–10 inches during the past 90 days) and low streamflows led to the expansion of areas of Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) along the coast. During the past week, the Northeast remained in an overall dry pattern with no significant rainfall accumulations observed across the majority of the region."
National Drought Monitor: Link

Shrimp alert!!!!!!

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 341. GeoffreyWPB:

Shrimp alert!!!!!!




Hopefully it will grow in size
344. vis0
CREDIT:: NHC, Owners of Simpson Cartoons
 
image host

 
In all seriousness keep on eye on the warmer oceans for the next few weeks.  After that maybe NorEasterpalooza? or knot(s).
What's special of Cabo Verde's sportswear? The tiny Island emblems on the shirt (sleeves/cheat are really solar cells that internally (inside sleeves out through neck hole) can be plugged into iPODs to power them...though this might exists as to clothing its made up but sounds nice. If it does not exist nor created yet and  APPLE uses the idea,  10% of profits to PORTLIGHT, 10% to RED CROSS. or i'll sue the buds off ya.
Quoting 339. unknowncomic:

Thank you. Wishcasters now have a good excuse why it is so quiet at the peak season.


I'm so glad we found out why the MDR or anywhere else can't support a storm. I'm so happy to have a government official tell us why La nina is not here, or maybe it's just that secret weather control program there not telling us about. LOL
Oh, Doc!!!!!
Quoting 209. LemieT:
snip... It's almost as if the weather has been artificially altered...
It has indeed been artificially altered - and by human activities.

The earth's climate is changing unnaturally due to anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels on a massive scale. Atmospheric CO2 levels haven't been this high in over 55 million years, and total atmospheric moisture content is almost 7 percent higher than one hundred years ago. That means more moisture is available to make bigger and more frequent heavy precipitation events. However, the distribution of changes of tropical cyclone patterns may be difficult to incorporate into the models because of the chaotic nature of weather and the many, many factors (including wind shear and atmospheric dust patterns) involved.

The computer programs used to model possible likelihoods for tropical cyclone genesis, strengthening and tracks are based on past events. Within the bounds of the chaotic nature of weather, scientists have been able to consistently improve short term weather forecasting and tropical severe weather modelling. However, AGW/CC is influencing climate and weather, including in the seven tropical cyclone regions, and the patterns do not appear to be changing uniformly in the various basins. Therefore, modelling for a changed - and continuously changing - global atmosphere is a big challenge, and not as likely to be as accurate as in a more stable atmosphere.

And of course, while most WU'pers are concerned with Atlantic basic hurricanes, they make up only about 12 percent of the worlds annual tropical cyclones. You should be thankful that the Atlantic is not getting increasing numbers of monster hurricanes like the recent ones in the western Pacific regions.

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, approximately 69 percent of the tropical cyclones occur in the Northern Hemisphere, while only 31 percent can be found in the Southern Hemisphere. Approximately 12 percent occur in the Atlantic Ocean, 57 percent occur in the Pacific and the remaining 31 percent occur in the Indian Ocean.
I always like it when I see commenters here discuss interesting tropical cyclones around the world, and when most of you show concern for the victims of such storms when they threaten land. I also recognize that many people who are not weather nerds come here for information and discussions when severe weather threatens their homes. However, I am put off by the regulars here who dismiss the dangers that tropical cyclones pose to people around the globe when the U.S. isn't threatened.

(Another thing that bugs me is the repeated complaining and whining by a number of WU regulars when forecasts and models - which are "predicting" likelihoods - are not 100% spot on. I don't know if it is due to ignorance regarding statistics and probabilities - or simply personality based - but it certainly is irritating.)
Anyone else notice this?
Old wu logo on the Rita track graphic


nu wu logo on 93L


(Both images copyright wunderground.com)

Bet the new logo doesn't sell as many t-shirts.
Quoting 308. Patrap:

93L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop




Two eyes! 8) Dun, dun, dunnnnnn