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Sudden Storm, Lingering Storm: Hurricane Newton Hits Baja, Hermine Still Spinning

By: Jeff Masters 4:30 PM GMT on September 06, 2016

Hurricane Newton is battering Mexico’s Baja Peninsula after whipping into existence on Sunday and intensifying with frightening speed. Newton became a tropical depression on Sunday afternoon in the waters a few hundred miles south-southeast of the tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, and rapidly grew into a hurricane in just 24 hours. Just 36 hours after the first advisory on the new tropical depression was issued, Newton was battering the southern tip of Baja with sustained winds of 90 mph, with the eye of the storm passing directly over the resort town of Cabo San Lucas. On Tuesday morning, an automated station at an altitude of 735 feet in Cabo San Lucas recorded sustained winds of 79 mph, gusting to 116 mph, between 2:10 - 2:20 EDT. An automated station along the central spine of the Baja Peninsula at Sierra La Laguna at an elevation of 6,394 feet recorded sustained winds of 73 mph, gusting to 136 mph, at 3:20 am EDT Tuesday. Newton’s sudden explosion into a landfalling hurricane didn’t give much time for evacuations and preparations, but the Mexican civil defense system for hurricanes is one of the best in the world, and I am hopeful that they got everyone to safety in time. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970 (when regular satellite coverage became available), the fastest an Atlantic storm has gone from its first appearance as a tropical depression to hurricane strength is 18 hours, in the case of Hurricane Humberto of 2007. There were seven storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. I haven’t studied the statistics on this matter for the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Newton on Monday, September 5, 2016, at 2:45 pm EDT. At the time, Newton was about to become a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Newton
Newton will finish traversing the southern portion of the Baja Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon, then emerge over the warm waters of the Gulf of California for 6 - 12 hours before making a final landfall on the coast of northwestern Mexico early Wednesday morning. Due to the narrowness of the Gulf of California and the high mountains on either side, plus an increase in wind shear, Newton will continue to weaken until its final landfall on Wednesday morning. Heavy rains will be the main threat from Newton over the next two days, with up to 18” expected in Baja. A significant pulse of moisture will surge into southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, bringing widespread heavy rains of 1 - 3” and the risk of flash floods. A Flash Flood Watch is posted for portions of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwest Texas.


Figure 2. Winds of 65 mph churn the ocean in this view taken inside of Hermine by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft on September 5, 2016. Image credit: LM TSgt Banks.

Hermine gradually winding down
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is gradually spinning down as it meanders over the cool waters just over 100 miles southeast of Long Island, per the 11 am NHC advisory.  New York, where a Tropical Storm Warning continues. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight early Tuesday morning and recent buoy observations suggested Hermine’s top sustained surface winds had decreased to 60 mph by late morning Thursday. Hermine is close enough to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast shorelines to produce rough surf, rip currents and a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet, but has dropped very little rainfall over the past day. The maximum storm surge observed on the U.S. coast late Tuesday morning was 2.0 feet in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Wind gusts from Hermine on Long Island on Tuesday morning included 37 mph at Farmingdale, 37 mph at Shirley, 37 mph at JFK Airport, and 32 mph at La Guardia Airport. At the Montauk Point Lighthouse, on the eastern tip of Long Island, sustained winds of 58 mph and gusts to 64 mph were reported at 12:20 am EDT Tuesday.


Figure 3.Visible VIIRS image of Hermine as of 1755Z (1:55 pm EDT) Monday, September 5, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine is now over waters cooler than 26°C—too cool to support tropical redevelopment. Furthermore, the storm is no longer receiving energy from atmospheric dynamics (from contrasts between warm moist air and cool dense air.) Without either source of energy to sustain it, Hermine will gradually spin down until it dissipates. Dissipation is predicted to occur by Thursday afternoon by both the European model and the GFS model. There is a chance of tropical-storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 mph or more) and bursts of heavy rain on eastern Long Island and over far southeast Massachusetts before dissipation occurs. Storm surge will be less than two feet, but some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur. For the latest on local impacts, check the local statements compiled on the NHC website.

92L little threat to develop
Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that a tropical wave (Invest 92L) was bringing heavy rains to Hispaniola. The activity was much weaker and less organized than on Monday. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a west to west-northwest path, and the system will bring some heavy rains to Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Wednesday and western Cuba on Thursday. Development is being arrested by dry air, and the 2 am EDT Tuesday SHIPS model forecast for 92L showed increasing dry air and wind shear for the latter part of the week, which should keep any development from occurring. The latest 0Z Tuesday operational runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC dropped their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 0% and 10%, respectively.

New African tropical wave may develop late this week
A tropical wave expected to leave the coast of Africa on Tuesday could develop into a tropical depression by next weekend, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Tuesday runs of the UKMET, GFS and European models. The Sahara Desert dust and dry air machine will be moderately active during the week, and development of this new tropical wave will likely be hindered by dry air. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 60%, respectively. The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America.

Jeff Masters



Video 1. Heavy rain and high winds sweep across Nantucket Island on Monday, September 5, 2016. Image credit: Blair Perkins, @xplorenantucket.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Updates,
Thanks for the update!
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Good read! Thank you.
Thank you Dr. Masters! Cabo is one of the better prepared locations for a 'surprise' storm. I hope that this does not become a trend.
nice lunch time read thanks

comments from previous blog carry over

tropics are quiet first day of school went off well all the summer vacationers returned home all is good in building

and the snowbirds just flew over the building on their way to Trenton after the end of the ex yesterday summer is over unofficially

Heat Warning in effect for:
City of Toronto
Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low thirties today and again Wednesday with humidex values reaching 40 to 42. There may be a few regions where the high temperatures and humidex values will continue into Thursday.
While heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults;
- infants and young children;
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses;
- people who work in the heat;
- people who exercise in the heat;
- homeless people; and
- people without access to air conditioning.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

Quoting 455. Dakster:



And that is why I left South Florida... It was affecting my health in a very negative way.

95 with the heat index here in my local at the moment
going up to a humidex of 40 to 42 by 104 too 107f late afternoon and again tomorrow
maybe part of Thursday as well
we are under a heat alert as well
feels more like mid summer then early sept here
strong cyclonic turning showing up heading in towards the windwards could be something to watch maybe

The models have been predicting the cyclone affecting the Baja region for several days. Not sure why there wasn't more attention given to it.
Hey keep ...
Not sure if you are in the know or not but can you give an update as to when change to WU maps will happen?
I've looked and dont see where I can save my settings ...it gets frustrating to have to reset every time I move off the map or even just refresh the map.
Thanks
Hmmmm.....








Same area
Quoting 13. nrtiwlnvragn:

Hmmmm.....








Same area

Close but still open on the west side and slightly elongated east to west. Edit: is that 92L?
i have been highliting this area 13N 46W since yesterday. not much convection ,but some spin.
Quoting 10. justmehouston:

Hey keep ...
Not sure if you are in the know or not but can you give an update as to when change to WU maps will happen?
I've looked and dont see where I can save my settings ...it gets frustrating to have to reset every time I move off the map or even just refresh the map.
Thanks
Houston I copied your comment and send it off to those in thee know see what they can do or say at least
MJO Will definitely be in our favor for most if not all of peak season
the excitement is about half way over. hopefully no name remains our worst.
Quoting 10. justmehouston:

Hey keep ...
Not sure if you are in the know or not but can you give an update as to when change to WU maps will happen?
I've looked and dont see where I can save my settings ...it gets frustrating to have to reset every time I move off the map or even just refresh the map.
Thanks

It has happened ages ago.
Quoting 9. Sfloridacat5:

The models have been predicting the cyclone affecting the Baja region for several days. Not sure why there wasn't more attention given to it.

There was attention given to it, but even weak Atlantic storms seem to grab more attention than a cat five in another basin
Quoting 6. unknowncomic:




Maybe it will get as far west as the N Antilles.
Why does WU still have 'Tropical storm conditions possible' for the next 3 days?
I live in small town in Central nj, near the Delaware.

Other than rain possible of 0.02 at 8pm tonight, it nothing else to say
about tropical storms.

Will it be windy?
I have noticed a certain rustling of the leaves today.

thanks!
Quoting 17. MrTornadochase:

MJO Will definitely be in our favor for most if not all of peak season



Hopefully more rain this month.

What do you mean, which side are you?

Quoting 17. MrTornadochase:

MJO Will definitely be in our favor for most if not all of peak season

Thanks Doc..Cabo getting whacked more and more it seems...


Looks as if the DR is going to slice the mid-level circulation of 92L in half, while any LLC gets grounded on the southern side. Does not portend well for the little guy.
Does anybody know where we can see the ECMWF model forecasts? I can only find it 'in hindsight' here, unless there's something I'm missing.
Quoting 6. unknowncomic:




Hmm. More faces. I think I suffer from a bad case of pareidolia.
Quoting 27. daddyjames:



Looks as if the DR is going to slice the mid-level circulation of 92L in half, while any LLC gets grounded on the southern side. Does not portend well for the little guy.
islands gonna chew him up and spit em out its not going to go well for the little guy story of all the systems that have tracked along that region this year
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY AL092016
1233 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT

**HERMINE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN...SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON HAS BEEN CANCELLED

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUFFOLK
COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY NY OR ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT NY
- 39.5N 71.9W
- STORM INTENSITY 60 MPH
- MOVEMENT WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

AT 1100 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS
LOCATED A LITTLE OVER 100 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT, AND WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND HERMINE MAY WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY,
AND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION ACROSS LOW
LYING AREAS OF LONG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS MOST
VULNERABLE TO STORM SURGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
IN OPEN AREAS AND IN AREAS WITH A GREATER NORTHERLY EXPOSURE,
INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK COUNTY AND ACROSS
FIRE ISLAND.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE UNFOLDING WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF LONG ISLAND. IF REALIZED,
THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS.
- MINOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. A FEW
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
BATTERING SURF CAPABLE OF CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DUNE EROSION AND
OVERWASHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DANGEROUSLY
ROUGH SURF...AND A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

* WIND:
POTENTIAL LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THE WIND CONTINUE ACROSS SUFFOLK
COUNTY. IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- SOME TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF.
- HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON SOME BRIDGES AND OTHER
ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- ISOLATED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* RIP CURRENTS:
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. RIP CURRENTS
ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE,
WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN SANDBARS AND NEAR
STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS, JETTIES, AND PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS
AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO LEARN ABOUT ANY SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR
ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM ONLY IN
LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN CALM,
DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF, AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR HELP.
IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE.
ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT, BEGIN TO SWIM
BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST
RIP CURRENTS AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
LISTEN FOR UPDATES AND BE READY IN CASE YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER.
LOCATE YOUR BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND FLASHLIGHT FROM YOUR EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES KIT. KEEP THESE ITEMS HANDY.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
tropical wave 92l should be over Jamaica this evening. lots of turning and it might be flaring up.
Wow I say very bad call by the NHC for the new TWO on 92L

I disagree that the upper level winds are unfavorable infact checking with the shear map it's actually much more favourable than before

Also system foward speed has slowed down too

Very very bad call on 92L by NHC IMO
Quoting 35. wunderkidcayman:

Wow I say very bad call by the NHC for the new TWO on 92L

I disagree that the upper level winds are unfavorable infact checking with the shear map it's actually much more favourable than before

Also system foward speed has slowed down too

Very very bad call on 92L by NHC IMO


The LLC is nowhere near the mid-level convection - and that is being cut into pieces by the DR. Not sure what you are looking at, but 92L essentially is dead.
Quoting 34. islander101010:

tropical wave 92l should be over Jamaica this evening. lots of turning and it might be flaring up.

Not by where the centre is located. More than likely it will be over or south of us tomorrow. Surely a bit of rain by late this evening into tonight.
And so is Hermine. Finally.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERMINE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 72.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal tropical storm warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.
Considering it was consistently forecast to become a major hurricane by all global models around 2 weeks ago, former 92L has to be one of the mot disappointing Invests ever lol.
Quoting 40. fabian171017:

Considering it was consistently forecast to become a major hurricane by all global models around 2 weeks ago, former 92L has to be one of the mot disappointing Invests ever lol.


You prove my point in the very statement you made: only if you were focusing upon the time frame beyond 120 hrs, which is not worth focusing upon. A little bit of knowledge goes a long way!
7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2016



So much for my forecast...I truly thought the 90 degree temps were finished for the summer in your region..It did cool off for a spell there....
Quoting 35. wunderkidcayman:

Wow I say very bad call by the NHC for the new TWO on 92L

I disagree that the upper level winds are unfavorable infact checking with the shear map it's actually much more favourable than before

Also system foward speed has slowed down too

Very very bad call on 92L by NHC IMO


ok, what are your %'s? NHC didn't take if off the grid. At best, it is 0/10. Only because it has slowed recently.

I think they have it pretty well pegged.
Quoting 43. MonsterTrough:



ok, what are your %'s? NHC didn't take if off the grid. At best, it is 0/10. Only because it has slowed recently.

I think they have it pretty well pegged.


Except the recent update as of 2;00 pm has it as 0/0.
Quoting 35. wunderkidcayman:

Wow I say very bad call by the NHC for the new TWO on 92L

I disagree that the upper level winds are unfavorable infact checking with the shear map it's actually much more favourable than before

Also system foward speed has slowed down too

Very very bad call on 92L by NHC IMO
they will revaluate if necessary later but its not going to do much maybe some periods of rain with embedded storms as it moves along the northern islands regions during heating and cooling cycles of the days
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061753
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine, located off of the New England coast
of the United States.

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. A low pressure area
is expected to form in association with the wave several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development
of this system is not expected. Nevertheless, periods of locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over Hispaniola
today in association with the wave and over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

&&
Additional information on Hermine can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .


$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 40. fabian171017:

Considering it was consistently forecast to become a major hurricane by all global models around 2 weeks ago, former 92L has to be one of the mot disappointing Invests ever lol.
models do bring it up to TS strength in 24-36 hours.
Quoting 42. hydrus:

7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2016



So much for my forecast...I truly thought the 90 degree temps were finished for the summer in your region..It did cool off for a spell there....
last 4 or 5 days prior to today was cooler a little not much nights were getting down good Saturday night got down to 10c with dew on the cars and grass by 3 in the morning and again last night down to 12c here this am went out around 2 30am or so and the grass had a nighttime dew on it
dom/Haiti gonna shred it anyway watch



Honestly hate the GFS model. 2 runs showed a nice long tracking hurricane before showing absolute garbage again.
2pm
97 at 2 with humidex
85 air temp forecast
high is 88 we got 3 degrees to make the forecast
Quoting 29. dhimes:

Does anybody know where we can see the ECMWF model forecasts? I can only find it 'in hindsight' here, unless there's something I'm missing.

Here you go: Link. You can select different regions and different modes of the atmosphere.
When they are forecast to become fishes they get 70% chance of development in the TWO.
BUT when they are forecast to go west towards the Lesser Antilles.....
Interesting on how both the GFS and EURO models have such a different opinion on how this new wave off Africa will develop..So far the GFS has been more accurate in the long run..Kinda hard to see a tropical storm breaking through that Ridge like how the EURO depicts that new system..But anything over 72hrs is far from accurate
Quoting 50. wunderweatherman123:

Honestly hate the GFS model. 2 runs showed a nice long tracking hurricane before showing absolute garbage again.



it loves you it wants you to marry it


nam shows storm in the west hints for winter tracks already
Quoting 54. CaribBoy:

When they are forecast to become fishes they get 70% chance of development in the TWO.
BUT when they are forecast to go west towards the Lesser Antilles.....

Believe me, I hate the model runs, especially the ones they show something you like, to absolute misery the next. Euro has 2 fishes so I know you won't be happy.
gonna be a weird day taz is it
Quoting 59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

gonna be a weird day taz is it


yep


92L is about too be drop the the tropicl weather out look
'tropical storm conditions possible' for 3 days,
are absent from WU.

Hurray!
Quoting 60. thetwilightzone:



yep


92L is about too be drop the the tropicl weather out look
it happens if the islands were not their it would be at 90 percent and under a TCFA but its not and likely will not be
Any bloggers here from Southeast Arizona or Southwest New Mexico?
"Over the years, there have been numerous times that the remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have affected Arizona. Although there has never been a case when one of these storms actually entered Arizona as a hurricane, there have been several occasions when these storms entered Arizona while still classified as a tropical storm. Here is a list of some of the more notable storms that have affected Arizona."
Top Arizona Hurricane/Tropical Storm Events: Link
Quoting 63. SPShaw:

Any bloggers here from Southeast Arizona or Southwest New Mexico?
"Over the years, there have been numerous times that the remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have affected Arizona. Although there has never been a case when one of these storms actually entered Arizona as a hurricane, there have been several occasions when these storms entered Arizona while still classified as a tropical storm. Here is a list of some of the more notable storms that have affected Arizona."
Top Arizona Hurricane/Tropical Storm Events: Link
Tucson checking in! This morning was sunny, now it is mostly cloudy, soon to be absolutely wet and stabby!

102 degrees yesterday, estimated 94 today, forecast 79 tomorrow.
red fish yellow fish green fish blue fish black fish

and so on
Quoting 65. thetwilightzone:

red fish yellow fish green fish blue fish black fish

and so on
give if a couple of days something will spin up
Hot one today. I think it's safe to say that the hottest weather is lingering longer and longer into September. It used to begin cooling down in late August, with temps dropping into the 70s. Now, this is seemingly like six years in a row with 80s and 90s lingering into September. And some of those years were relatively cool. Humidity too is up - dewpoints into the 70s! Yikes...
Quoting 64. cynyc2:

Tucson checking in! This morning was sunny, now it is mostly cloudy, soon to be absolutely wet and stabby!

102 degrees yesterday, estimated 94 today, forecast 79 tomorrow.

Thanks! Was wondering if you knew of any "Desert Flood Chasers" in the area that document these types of events?
Quoting 67. ClimateChange:

Hot one today. I think it's safe to say that the hottest weather is lingering longer and longer into September. It used to begin cooling down in late August, with temps dropping into the 70s. Now, this is seemingly like six years in a row with 80s and 90s lingering into September. And some of those years were relatively cool. Humidity too is up - dewpoints into the 70s! Yikes...
its a little warm yes

as of 3 pm

87f humidex 101f
only thing interesting too me at the present is that partially naked swirl heading towards windwards could try something maybe even become 93l
The first drizzle we got on the Jersey Shore for P.T. Hermine just appeared this hour.
Quoting 55. rockcity340:

Interesting on how both the GFS and EURO models have such a different opinion on how this new wave off Africa will develop..So far the GFS has been more accurate in the long run..Kinda hard to see a tropical storm breaking through that Ridge like how the EURO depicts that new system..But anything over 72hrs is far from accurate
wow I keep wondering my self how can a tropical storm break. Through such a strong ridge think the euro is off and I don't buy the GFS long track either
Quoting 72. popartpete:

The first drizzle we got on the Jersey Shore for P.T. Hermine just appeared this hour.
is it a heavy drizzle
75. vis0

Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

strong cyclonic turning showing up heading in towards the windwards could be something to watch maybe


i'm watching it as we're entering one of the 5 or 6   2week period of my imagination i call "2WkAnom"  when sudden activity flares.  Last 4-5 yrs ~76% of the best "looking" Ts occurred during those 2 week periods   Weird thing is either there was 1 strong Hurricane or two  in wqhich one was a wanna-bees as FAY then a med-strong Hurrs that followed as Gonzalo...lets observe and keep the Islands informed
Well just checking in on 92l . I see its rip. Snoooozefest in the tropics once again. That's been the norm for a couple years. Later all . Have a good day.
Can I ask why the NHC did this? Why did they just swing the past track up without showing the path? If you look at all the images they just pulled it like a line across from east to west. It ruffles my feathers.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 67. ClimateChange:

Hot one today. I think it's safe to say that the hottest weather is lingering longer and longer into September. It used to begin cooling down in late August, with temps dropping into the 70s. Now, this is seemingly like six years in a row with 80s and 90s lingering into September. And some of those years were relatively cool. Humidity too is up - dewpoints into the 70s! Yikes...


Yup

They are feeling Newton here:
Link
Could 92L head for the Windward passage, then develop?
Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

give if a couple of days something will spin up


and will be a fish.
Quoting 68. SPShaw:


Thanks! Was wondering if you knew of any "Desert Flood Chasers" in the area that document these types of events?
Sorry, I can't help you with that one, but I can probably grab a pick or 3 if the bridges start to wash away!

Keep in mind that we have very few "floods". Even the best of us out here in Tucson would be out of practice. This coming event (Newton) could be one of those once in a lifetime type floods. We average 11 inches of rain a year, and we could get 2 or more inches in some locations in a short period of time. Will post anything of merit.

For once, I wont have to live vicariously through the WU community!
The wave between 45-50 degrees looks interesting
Quoting 77. George1938:

Can I ask why the NHC did this? Why did they just swing the past track up without showing the path? If you look at all the images they just pulled it like a line across from east to west. It ruffles my feathers.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


I was wondering that too. My guess is that it's for simplicity, or to make the map more "read-able", but if that's the point, then there is no point to the maps.
Nah, it could never happen! An intriguing thought, anyway.






There must be some ferocious waves riding up the Gulf today, and the mother of all seiches up by the desiccated marshland of the poor over-tapped Colorado. Is anybody there to even witness it?
Wow.The blog is dead 0_o.
40' between comment 86 and comment 87.

September 6...


If you squint really closely, looks as if something is trying to spin up over Lake O in FL.
Quoting 84. rockcity340:

The wave between 45-50 degrees looks interesting


I keep watching and hoping.

SAL is back, already bored.
Well I guess I will add something weather related then.Despite topping out at 93 it wasn't actually that bad today.It was actually quite beautiful outside today with low humidity values and a stiff breeze in excess of up to 25mph at times made it feel tolerable.Unfortunately the humidity will be on the rise and the wind machine will soon be cut off.We could actually threaten to hit 100 degrees two times in the next week.......
Quoting 79. pingon:

They are feeling Newton here:
Link


That's pretty far away from Newton, but certainly close to the MDR of the eastern Pacific.
window shear a joke lol wind shear out there are this unfavorable area wide i wounder when things will be come more favorable i think the NHC is just jumping the gun on that area off the cost of Africa giveing how unfavorable things are out there at this time

One of the interesting things about Humberto, 2007 was that it came from an invest that had been deactivated. It officially was not an invest anymore. That plus it developed well within radar range of the NWS office near League City (between Houston and Galveston). Got to see a show as it spun up.
Quoting 92. washingtonian115:

Well I guess I will add something weather related then.Despite topping out at 93 it wasn't actually that bad today.It was actually quite beautiful outside today with low humidity values and a stiff breeze in excess of up to 25mph at times made it feel tolerable.Unfortunately the humidity will be on the rise and the wind machine will soon be cut off.We could actually threaten to hit 100 degrees two times in the next week.......


Should top out at 55F today here.. Raining... Snowing in the mountains. (at least on radar, I have to wait until I see more than 1/4 of a mile to see if any snow stuck) Lows in the mid 40s at least at my elevation.

Enjoy the heat Washi -
Quoting 30. calkevin77:



Hmm. More faces. I think I suffer from a bad case of pareidolia.



Thank you. I learned a new word today.
Quoting 97. SecretStormNerd:



Thank you. I learned a new word today.

I have been rapacious, despondent, and and pernicious today.
Quoting 63. SPShaw:

Any bloggers here from Southeast Arizona or Southwest New Mexico?
"Over the years, there have been numerous times that the remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have affected Arizona. Although there has never been a case when one of these storms actually entered Arizona as a hurricane, there have been several occasions when these storms entered Arizona while still classified as a tropical storm. Here is a list of some of the more notable storms that have affected Arizona."
Top Arizona Hurricane/Tropical Storm Events: Link


According to Wikipedia, Hurricane Nora in 1997 was the last system to enter the US from Mexico as a tropical storm.

Link


Quoting 86. beell:

An intriguing thought, anyway.

Very, lol!! You're really entertaining, beell :-)
Quoting 98. Sandcat:


I have been rapacious, despondent, and and pernicious today.

Wow! Somebody needs a time-out.
Quoting 101. ACSeattle:


Wow! Somebody needs a time-out.

Nothing interesting to track and email servers down at work. That makes me egregious.
Quoting 88. washingtonian115:

Wow.The blog is dead 0_o.
kinda goes with how the atlantic is doing
just a La Nina update........if you average the 3.4 region for the last 12 weeks.......it's at -0.5.........
It appears some of the bloggers are becoming sesquipedalian. Who knows, it might laetificate the blog.

Quoting 104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

kinda goes with how the atlantic is doing



hermine is still out there....92L is still up although probably not for long....and another system to watch as pointed out by doc.....there's not death and destruction...but it's not dead.....
Quoting 107. ricderr:




hermine is still out there....92L is still up although probably not for long....and another system to watch as pointed out by doc.....there's not death and destruction...but it's not dead.....


hermine Is done
Post 101 read this rule 13

Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.
Quoting 96. Dakster:



Should top out at 55F today here.. Raining... Snowing in the mountains. (at least on radar, I have to wait until I see more than 1/4 of a mile to see if any snow stuck) Lows in the mid 40s at least at my elevation.

Enjoy the heat Washi -

chilly
time for a small jacket and pants maybe for you now
but I am good till -10c before I put pants on
I wear shorts and a hoodie on cooler days
pants when its driving snow and I got to go shoveling for a few hrs

speaking of which I got to call the boiler guys
this week for the inspection and set up of the heating
so I will just have to hit the on switch when needed
Quoting 106. Grothar:

It appears some of the bloggers are becoming sesquipedalian. Who knows, it might laetificate the blog.




Is this supposed to be some sort of sublimated anti-antidisestablishmentarianism?

We need a couple or three cat 5s rolling around on the billiard table of the Atlantic.
Quoting 107. ricderr:




hermine is still out there....92L is still up although probably not for long....and another system to watch as pointed out by doc.....there's not death and destruction...but it's not dead.....

hermine is causing massive amounts of heavy drizzle
92 is gonna get shredded by Haiti/dom
then ripped apart with shear
the east is baking for a few days
and the desert is gonna see some rains
with a quick flash flood or two and maybe a haboob or three
thrown in for highlights
so ya its not dead

but some would like too see more
Quoting 106. Grothar:

It appears some of the bloggers are becoming sesquipedalian. Who knows, it might laetificate the blog.



Well played sir. Im usually convivial and mirthful but the lassitude of the tropics are baneful.
Oooo! Vocabulary workout!
Lol
Another perniciously hot and humid day... Continuing the trend of the last few weeks. Summer certainly isn't over here...
Quoting 71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

only thing interesting too me at the present is that partially naked swirl heading towards windwards could try something maybe even become 93l


This is exactly how Hurricane Andrew started if I remember. It was a naked swirl nobody was paying attention to in about the same location
Watching the 18z GFS with hope.
Wow... I thought 92L was for sure going south of Hispaniola. I mean, it's weak, and wouldn't that keep it from having a more northward pull??? For awhile I thought it was just that the wave had most of its convection on the north side, but as I'm watching it dash itself on the mountains of Hispaniola, I don't see much left of it further south.

Ughhh.... need some more action...
Okay, as the blog is silent, here the latest weather related news from my sister, who - in the age of 53 - is traveling the US for the first time (with her husband). They were up to explore the Olympic Peninsula west of Seattle, but discontinued their course yesterday due to cold (45F, she said) and rainy weather, heading earlier than planned towards Mt. St. Helens, only to find it shrouded in rain clouds, so they skipped it as well. Right now I got some texts that they have fled towards Yakima Valley (Rattlesnake Hills) way further to the east. Wow, I texted back (after some research in google), this is a wine growing region, congratulations! - "Exactly, hicks!", was the reply, "and we just caught up with the sun". So I hope their last days in the US will be pleasant, and sister is in a good mood when returning to Germany on Sunday (no pleasure to be with her in bad mood, lol). Summer should be still here then. Right now models won't forecast any end of our very warm and dry summer weather, way above average for this time of the year. And I guess I'll have to accomplish another trip (through the heavy traffic in our metropolitan area near Frankfurt) to our weekend garden, usually maintained by my sister, to water the plants, sigh ;-)
Quoting 116. CaribBoy:

Watching the 18z GFS with hope.


please dont hold your breath.....156hrs out. Things dont look promising at al
Quoting 117. opal92nwf:

Wow... I thought 92L was for sure going south of Hispaniola. I mean, it's weak, and wouldn't that keep it from having a more northward pull??? For awhile I thought it was just that the wave had most of its convection on the north side, but as I'm watching it dash itself on the mountains of Hispaniola, I don't see much left of it further south.

Ughhh.... need some more action...
ya the mountains are not its friend for sure

Unfortunatey no rain on the 18z GFS. Only weak fishes.
Must be taking in some of that Gulfstream energy... Has a bit of a warm core signature.

Quoting 115. BOCAJIM56:



This is exactly how Hurricane Andrew started if I remember. It was a naked swirl nobody was paying attention to in about the same location

I always marvel at how Andrew was able to make such an unbelievable comeback. One documentary I saw on Youtube had one of the NHC people being interviewed: he said something to the effect that basically they could have downgraded it to a depression at this point, although they didn't since they already knew it could be a threat and partially to not lull people into not paying attention anymore.

"Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF])." Link

This is why I didn't take my eyes off of TD Fiona when it was east of the Bahamas moving west.


Drought is back in a hurry
126. beell
Commentors on this blog should refrain from vainglorious attempts at false erudition through indiscriminate interjection of abstrusive, multisyllabic locutory. All emanations of The King's English should strive for melodious clarity while avoiding excessive verbosity.

Anything less is an abhorrent agglomeration of trichobezoarities (Ack!)
Quoting 114. BahaHurican:

Oooo! Vocabulary workout!
Lol
Another perniciously hot and humid day... Continuing the trend of the last few weeks. Summer certainly isn't over here...

Keep the vocab flowing, lol. As some may remember, I'm "only" here to improve my English, lol. And it became rare that I had to look up any new word (in the first years the list of new words next to my screen was growing every day). So keep trying to surprise me, like Grothar :-)
Looks like the rest of September will be dry. 23 days left.

Recent Septembers have been dry anyways. New era.

Maybe October will bring something.
only 10 % chance? heart of the season. 92
Quoting 126. beell:

Commentors on this blog should refrain from vainglorious attempts at false erudition ...

Ahh, vainglorious - never heard that before. 100 points!
Quoting 129. islander101010:

only 10 % chance? heart of the season. 92


I thought the last TWO said 0%. Lol
Quoting 106. Grothar:

It appears some of the bloggers are becoming sesquipedalian. Who knows, it might laetificate the blog.


More adoxographic and capernoited comments to be sure. Have grown accustom to the exsibilation and subjugation from a few philosophunculists here , and always have been thelemic and blandiloquent in return....:)
133. beell
Quoting 106. Grothar:

It appears some of the bloggers are becoming sesquipedalian. Who knows, it might laetificate the blog.




i don't think we should be talking about breast-feeding here.
134. Wots
Blog is slow, everybody must be googling
(I am)
:-)
Quoting 132. hydrus:

More adoxographic and copornoited comments to be sure. Have grown accustom to the exsibilation and subjugation from a few philosophunculists here , and always have been thelemic and blandiloquent in return....:)


Surely you mean capornoited. Or perhaps you say "copornoited" because you are capornoited.
Quoting 132. hydrus:

More adoxographic and copornoited comments to be sure. Have grown accustom to the exsibilation and subjugation from a few philosophunculists here , and always have been thelemic and blandiloquent in return....:)

Man, this shoots the bird (as we use to say in German), lol! My online dictionnary is overstrained ("Unfortunately we were not able to translate ..."). I've noticed the term "philosophunculist" for further use though :-)

BTW, here is the current loop of that cut off low in the Mediterranean (I told you this morning). Already caused some flash flooding in Greece today:

140. beell
Quoting 138. barbamz:


Man, this shoots the bird (as we use to say in German), lol! My online dictionnary is overstrained ("Unfortunately we were not able to translate ..."). I've noticed the term "philosophunculist" for further use though :-)

BTW, here is the current loop of that cut off low in the Mediterranean (I told you this morning). Already caused some flash flooding in Greece today:





We might say "this takes the cake". "Shoots the bird" may not translate well.
:)
Quoting 139. BaltimoreBrian:

Air pollution particles 'get into brain'

Very apt comment to the current status of the blog, lol.
Quoting 130. barbamz:


Ahh, vainglorious - never heard that before. 100 points!
One of my favorite words.... lol ...
92L bringing heavy rain yet gets no respect.
Quoting 126. beell:

Commentors on this blog should refrain from vainglorious attempts at false erudition through indiscriminate interjection of abstrusive, multisyllabic locutory. All emanations of The King's English should strive for melodious clarity while avoiding excessive verbosity.

Anything less is an abhorrent agglomeration of trichobezoarities (Ack!)
Wonder how many people had to look up more than 5 words in that post .... lol ...
Quoting 127. barbamz:


Keep the vocab flowing, lol. As some may remember, I'm "only" here to improve my English, lol. And it became rare that I had to look up any new word (in the first years the list of new words next to my screen was growing every day). So keep trying to surprise me, like Grothar :-)
You may enjoy the website vocabulary.com .... I do!
Quoting 140. beell:


We might say "this takes the cake". "Shoots the bird" may not translate well.
:)

[Edit: Partly deleted, see post #166.]

Here the map of temperature anomalies in the next five days. The east of the US and most of Europe (f.e.) share the fate of above average temps:

Quoting 143. unknowncomic:

92L bringing heavy rain yet gets no respect.

The wave obviously extends to the S American continent, per this loop and this analysis ...
Quoting 144. BahaHurican:

Wonder how many people had to look up more than 5 words in that post .... lol ...
You may enjoy the website vocabulary.com .... I do!


There was only 2 I didn't know, but didn't bother to look them up. My brain was fried before reading it, it just helped set me back a little more O_-;;;;;;
mmm? 18Z GFS says all fish coming off of Africa.
Quoting 119. java162:



please dont hold your breath.....156hrs out. Things dont look promising at al
Quoting 142. BahaHurican:

One of my favorite words.... lol ...


As a college student, my favorite word is "free".
Quoting 144. BahaHurican:

Wonder how many people had to look up more than 5 words in that post .... lol ...
You may enjoy the website vocabulary.com .... I do!

That's a bit recrementirious in my opinion.
I'm going to say this in plain English...what on Earth happened to the blog? The level of English tickles my ears.

On the topic of weather, I wonder how many newton's of energy Hurricane Newton has produced?
Barbamz you have mail
Quoting 124. opal92nwf:


I always marvel at how Andrew was able to make such an unbelievable comeback.
" Link

This is why I didn't take my eyes off of TD Fiona when it was east of the Bahamas moving west.


Looking at that TUTT I'm surprised Andrew survived as well, looks like it was about to eat it! You can see it was starting to shear it pretty bad in that image.
No change on the 8PM TWO

NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 1 h
MODIS high resolution visible satellite image from today


Landfall and travelling along the peninsula took its toll on Newton though.

Best wishes for the night to everyone! Late night already in Germany ...
93L should be designated very shortly now that the wave is off the coast. Likely to be a weak fishspinner similar to Fiona, though.
Quoting 143. unknowncomic:

92L bringing heavy rain yet gets no respect.




92L is gone from the tropicl weather out look
Nature will decide the ultimate path of the future storms
Quoting 157. Gearsts:




looks like 2 runs of the GFS for that south CV hurricane were too good to be true. Expect the blog to be near empty. September and 3 Weak tS fishes. That's all we can muster up
Quoting 158. thetwilightzone:




92L is gone from the tropicl weather out look



But look what the CMC's replacing it with.



That CMC's really starting to get on my nerves!
Quoting 160. wunderweatherman123:



looks like 2 runs of the GFS for that south CV hurricane were too good to be true. Expect the blog to be near empty. September and 3 Weak tS fishes. That's all we can muster up

Maybe, but one never knows...
Quoting 120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya the mountains are not its friend for sure





Is there anybody on this forum presently visiting Hispaniola now? What's 92L doing down there?
I think early to mid October would be more active than September of present year
Quoting 135. LesBonsTemps:



Surely you mean capornoited. Or perhaps you say "copornoited" because you are capornoited.
Sometimes i wish i was capernoited.
Last post concerning comments #138, 140, 145: Got a very helpful WU-mail from SunnyDaysFla (thanks!) that the German saying I was quoting got a second, umm, bad meaning in English. Had no idea, lol. No pun intended, sorry! A foreign language is always a slippery road ;-) At least I've learned something new :-)
Good night, folks!
92L R.I.P. another one bites the dust or should I say mountains or maybe even wind shear
Quoting 160. wunderweatherman123:



looks like 2 runs of the GFS for that south CV hurricane were too good to be true. Expect the blog to be near empty. September and 3 Weak tS fishes. That's all we can muster up

Quoting 168. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Fish storms don't seem to interest many of the users on this blog. However, I personally enjoy tracking all Atlantic storms - whether it be a tropical depression with no threat to land or a category 5 making landfall. Gaston's existence was overshadowed by 99L/TD9/Hermine, despite becoming one of the best-looking Atlantic hurricanes of the decade.
Its all over folks time for fall and winter and time to talk about the polar ice
Quoting 166. barbamz:

Last post concerning comments #138, 140, 145: Got a very helpful WU-mail from SunnyDaysFla (thanks!) that the German saying I was quoting got a second, umm, bad meaning in English. Had no idea, lol. No pun intended, sorry! A foreign language is always a slippery road ;-) At least I've learned something new :-)
Good night, folks!
Good night Barb.. Hasta manana..:)
Quoting 163. pureet1948:




Is there anybody on this forum presently visiting Hispaniola now? What's 92L doing down there?
Some forum members live there. We have a fair number of resident Caribbean bloggers ...
173. beell
Quoting 166. barbamz:

Last post concerning comments #138, 140, 145: Got a very helpful WU-mail from SunnyDaysFla (thanks!) that the German saying I was quoting got a second, umm, bad meaning in English. Had no idea, lol. No pun intended, sorry! A foreign language is always a slippery road ;-) At least I've learned something new :-)
Good night, folks!


I tried sending twice at about the same time-no success. Good night, barb, and thanks SDF!.
Quoting 170. mamothmiss:

Its all over folks time for fall and winter and time to talk about the polar ice

All over? We haven't even reached the peak of the season yet...
Quoting 170. mamothmiss:

Its all over folks time for fall and winter and time to talk about the polar ice
sure it is are ya sleeping yet that's when they come and get ya
Quoting 149. Astrometeor:



As a college student, my favorite word is "free".
free is always good
just got to put hermine in the books then be ready for the next round

Quoting 173. beell:


I tried sending twice at about the same time-no success. Good night, barb, and thanks SDF!.

Thanks, beell. Very appreciated, but what on earth is the meaning of SDF??? SDF may refer to .... Lol, I'll look at any answers tomorrow. Really have to sleep now, or I'll be dead in the office ;-)
And just think how dangerous I could be, since English is actually my 3rd language.

Hurricane Newton, blasting right across Baja, a little bit to the left of the projected path right now.

In the far upper left, you can see two eddies in the marine layer downwind of Guadalupe Island.
Looks like 92L is stopping in at the graveyard.(Could surprise since it is almost Sept. 11). Disturbance to the lower right has a nice shape to it.
Quoting 145. barbamz:


[Edit: Partly deleted, see post #166.]

Here the map of temperature anomalies in the next five days. The east of the US and most of Europe (f.e.) share the fate of above average temps:



And more significantly, a good portion of the Arctic.
Quoting 162. juracanpr1:


Maybe, but one never knows...
I think the GFS is over doing the trough strength. Will a storm still not go OTS?
Quoting 141. barbamz:


Very apt comment to the current status of the blog, lol.

If true, WAY too late for most of us. That we SURVIVED pre-pollution control life at all and can still function enough to use this technology is truly miraculous. That or good genes.
186. beell
Quoting 178. barbamz:


Thanks, beell. Very appreciated, but what on earth is the meaning of SDF??? SDF may refer to .... Lol, I'll look at any answers tomorrow. Really have to sleep now, or I'll be dead in the office ;-)


SunnyDaysFla!
I think I have done enough damage for one evening!

I think barb is messing with me, lol.

Moisture plume from Newton streaming over the US. Lester forecast over the next 48 hours to merge into a strengthening low and associated frontal zone in the Gulf of Alaska, part of which is visible west of the northwest coast of North America.
Quoting 133. beell:


i don't think we should be talking about breast-feeding here.
LOL Beell - especially since you recently told us the about origin of your handle!
Quoting 179. Grothar:

And just think how dangerous I could be, since English is actually my 3rd language.


I thought you also knew Sanskrit and ancient Babylonian.
Quoting 83. cynyc2:

Sorry, I can't help you with that one, but I can probably grab a pick or 3 if the bridges start to wash away!

Keep in mind that we have very few "floods". Even the best of us out here in Tucson would be out of practice. This coming event (Newton) could be one of those once in a lifetime type floods. We average 11 inches of rain a year, and we could get 2 or more inches in some locations in a short period of time. Will post anything of merit.

For once, I wont have to live vicariously through the WU community!
Lived in Phoenix for a time, used to love hiking in the Superstitions. We had a favorite little canyon we would explore, it did not take much imagination to figure out where all those large boulders we clambered over had come from. With cliffs on both sides we always were on the lookout for storm clouds when hiking there. That was only a couple of years after the Black Canyon Bridge disaster and widespread flooding of 1978.
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/07/03/19 78-severe-flooding-washed-out-bridges-all-over-ari zona/
P.S. A USGS report in pdf,
Floods of November 1978 to March 1979 in Arizona and West-Central New Mexico
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/2241/report.pdf
191. beell
Quoting 188. Xulonn:

LOL Beell - especially since you recently told us the about origin of your handle!


"boobless" actually originated from having a small tolerance for fools. I've mellowed.
;-]
192. FOREX
Quoting 174. HurricaneFan:


All over? We haven't even reached the peak of the season yet...
THE same types were saying these things then Sandy hit.
Quoting 185. BayFog:

If true, WAY too late for most of us. That we SURVIVED pre-pollution control life at all and can still function enough to use this technology is truly miraculous. That or good genes.

"Locomotives, Jersey City," Reginald Marsh, 1934. Click painting to expand.



"Lower Manhattan," George Grosz, 1934. Click painting to expand.



Quoting 168. TropicalAnalystwx13:



Yeah in the FAR north Atlantic. We here on the islands don't even get decent Twaves anymore. The biggest shower i seen this year was yesterday with a little bit of thunder and 15mph winds. I'm not saying that we need a huge TC over the islands but we don't even get the weak ones. 99L pass way to the north with a sunny day here and 92L gave me and hour long tstorm with 15mph. So you tell me if the Atlantic Hasn't been the same in the past 5 years. Each of those years we ended with rain deficit by December time.
From 1995 to 2011 i experience seven TC and from 2012 to 2016 we had zero.
I want those + people come on! Took me like and hour to write that :D Don't judge me...
big day apple event for SEP 7th



now back too the topic
So many say over if only a few days since one. Short attention spans and no patience.
The wave over Hispaniola , and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles have good rotation associated with them..I believe we may have something forming in the next day or two..jmo



The circulation is ominous looking, even if it's weak.
Don't mourn 92L. Seeing what kind of storm an Ivan-type track can generate with record TCHP is an experiment best left in computer scenarios.
Quoting 200. ProPoly:

Don't mourn 92L. Seeing what kind of storm an Ivan-type track can generate with record TCHP is an experiment best left in computer scenarios.



there is no more 92L guys



the NHC took it off its tropic weather out look its done
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

Yeah in the FAR north Atlantic. We here on the islands don't even get decent Twaves anymore. The biggest shower i seen this year was yesterday with a little bit of thunder and 15mph winds. I'm not saying that we need a huge TC over the islands but we don't even get the weak ones. 99L pass way to the north with a sunny day here and 92L gave me and hour long tstorm with 15mph. So you tell me if the Atlantic Hasn't been the same in the past 5 years. Each of those years we ended with rain deficit by December time.
From 1995 to 2011 i experience seven TC and from 2012 to 2016 we had zero.

I'd avoid the islands too if I was a wave with all the pessimism coming from there. ;)
Have to watch 92L still, JMO
Quoting 203. stormpetrol:

Have to watch 92L still, JMO


can we all please call it ex 92L then ?
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

Yeah in the FAR north Atlantic. We here on the islands don't even get decent Twaves anymore. The biggest shower i seen this year was yesterday with a little bit of thunder and 15mph winds. I'm not saying that we need a huge TC over the islands but we don't even get the weak ones. 99L pass way to the north with a sunny day here and 92L gave me and hour long tstorm with 15mph. So you tell me if the Atlantic Hasn't been the same in the past 5 years. Each of those years we ended with rain deficit by December time.
From 1995 to 2011 i experience seven TC and from 2012 to 2016 we had zero.
Of course people who don't live on the islands are going to talk that smack.I know how you guys feel.Island life is different from mainland life and a lot of people here don't seem to understand that.The Atlantic has not been the same for the past 5 years with dry air plaguing the MDR and you all are first hand accounts to this.Yet others seem to ignore it.
Quoting 148. hurricanewatcher61:

mmm? 18Z GFS says all fish coming off of Africa.

Long range models they don't mean ********! When will people learn?
Quoting 179. Grothar:

And just think how dangerous I could be, since English is actually my 3rd language.
"Grothar": Santharian God of Weather, also a street in Moorrege, Germany! I bet one of your languages is German!!! LOL "Love you man!"
Quoting 153. CW7859:



Looking at that TUTT I'm surprised Andrew survived as well, looks like it was about to eat it! You can see it was starting to shear it pretty bad in that image.

If that happened this year I can just imagine all the "Andrew is going to die" or "Andrew is going to be sheared to pieces and be history" comments....
209. IDTH
Quoting 198. hydrus:

The wave over Hispaniola , and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles have good rotation associated with them..I believe we may have something forming in the next day or two..jmo





Quoting 198. hydrus:

The wave over Hispaniola , and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles have good rotation associated with them..I believe we may have something forming in the next day or two..jmo






Wow. Look at the storm smashing into the mountains...or are the mountains slightly to the left of it?
Look at this "Dry Air Dance" for Hermine tonight. :o

Link

Hermine was certainly a strange, and "entertaining" storm (except for those who suffered any damage/hardship from it, obviously... I'm not remotely discounting what they've gone through). I live in Eastern New York, just on the edge of the wrap-around clouds, and said cloud formations, and lines of demarcation between them, and the bright skies on our western horizon, were rather stunning, especially at sunset tonight.

Jo
Quoting 201. thetwilightzone:




there is no more 92L guys



the NHC took it off its tropic weather out look its done

Just because NHC took it off its tropic weather does not mean it can't come back.
Just throwing this out there....

Looking at how things stack up now, I think we're in trending towards a Gilbert/Mitch/Dean monster storm in the Western Caribbean in late September/early October. Its been 9 years since the Atlantic had a Cat 5, five years since that area even had a hurricane, and nothing over cat 2 since the Dean/Felix double team in 2007.

Look at how much energy is waiting for whatever can make its way down there: TCHP
For those who have not seen it, this is footage of Hurricane Hugo striking S.E. Puerto Rico. It is awesome video..It gets very intense between 14 and 20 minutes. Jim Leonard was with Michael Laca and others, taking shelter in a large concrete structure when it hit...Edit..I should mention that if you click the Hi Def box on the screen, it cuts out the best parts of the footage...Do not click hi defLink
Quoting 207. USCGLT:

"Grothar": Santharian God of Weather, also a street in Moorrege, Germany! I bet one of your languages is German!!! LOL "Love you man!"


German is my first language,Norwegian my second. A few others follow after that.
Quoting 191. beell:



"boobless" actually originated from having a small tolerance for fools. I've mellowed.
;-]


I for one appreciate that ;)
Now we may see an interesting event in the Atlantic next week. Two systems moving at different speed might merge. It is possible if the high pressure remains, the system could be very near the Bahamas. Now no one will remember this, because if it does occur, each will as they discovered it :):):)
Quoting 198. hydrus:

The wave over Hispaniola , and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles have good rotation associated with them..I believe we may have something forming in the next day or two..jmo






Indeed, quite agreed! I think too many times the NHC has been too quick to write off these systems...thus far we have seen very robust & rigorous low pressure systems move through the Eastern Caribbean area.
The Bahamas/ Florida area should be on the look-out for potential development from Ex 92L. Of course, time will tell.
God Bless!
Confused as to how this no longer poses a threat to land.
Convection building around circulation again

Quoting 215. Grothar:



German is my first language,Norwegian my second. A few others follow after that.




International man of mystery :)
Also, that area of disturbed weather nearing the Central Lesser Antilles islands bears watching...I'm pretty certain that its about to come under the effects of the 'Lesser Antilles Rule' as with 92L -unfortunately as per usual it will likely be either near or over the island chain...
God Bless!
Quoting 218. NatureIsle:



Indeed, quite agreed! I think too many times the NHC has been too quick to write off these systems...thus far we have seen very robust & rigorous low pressure systems move through the Eastern Caribbean area.
The Bahamas/ Florida area should be on the look-out for potential development from Ex 92L. Of course, time will tell.
God Bless!
Yep...I mentioned earlier in the season that this type of pattern usually brings storms through the Bahamas into Florida...And the pattern looks like it will stick around for the next two weeks at the very least. After that, the autumn fronts start to affect the western edge of the Bermuda High, and storms recurve. We should have a Caribbean/Gulf storm this month, its wait and see..
Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Of course people who don't live on the islands are going to talk that smack.I know how you guys feel.Island life is different from mainland life and a lot of people here don't seem to understand that.The Atlantic has not been the same for the past 5 years with dry air plaguing the MDR and you all are first hand accounts to this.Yet others seem to ignore it.


The lack of rain here is very expensive considering that a cubic meter of water from the water supply system costs approximatly 10USD. Monthly water bills over 500USD is a good reason why local residents on this isand LOVE the rain :)

Hopefully tons will fall before the year ends.


Turning N towards the High? Go figure....


Maybe this time one of these will come close...
Quoting 208. opal92nwf:


If that happened this year I can just imagine all the "Andrew is going to die" or "Andrew is going to be sheared to pieces and be history" comments....
I remember them saying on the news that Andrew would likely dissipate in 24 hours, then the recon flight went out and discovered at 5000 feet the winds were still moving at over 70 kts. Then the low lifted out rapidly and a ridge moved in almost immediately. Andrew started due west and conditions were perfect for the storm to rapidly intensify..You know the rest.
The run of the merging vorticities....
GFS shows something different each new run...
look at blow up near turks caicos.
The one on the lower right has a nice low level circulation. Been watching it for a few days. not much convection tho. Location is 13N 50W

Quoting 181. unknowncomic:

Looks like 92L is stopping in at the graveyard.(Could surprise since it is almost Sept. 11). Disturbance to the lower right has a nice shape to it.

"Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Of course people who don't live on the islands are going to talk that smack.I know how you guys feel.Island life is different from mainland life and a lot of people here don't seem to understand that.The Atlantic has not been the same for the past 5 years with dry air plaguing the MDR and you all are first hand accounts to this.Yet others seem to ignore it.

CaribBoy
The lack of rain here is very expensive considering that a cubic meter of water from the water supply system costs approximatly 10USD. Monthly water bills over 500USD is a good reason why local residents on this isand LOVE the rain :)

Hopefully tons will fall before the year ends."









All this needs repeating now and again. Help people see out of their bubble if lucky.
Quoting 231. markot:

look at blow up near turks caicos.
Stranger things have happened. Welcome to the Wishcaster club! CMC refuses to give up on 92L and puts it in the GOM.
00z GFS is strange
CMC sends 92L to Texas as a TS.
Quoting 236. unknowncomic:

CMC sends 92L to Texas as a TS.




Could Texas be facing a storm as destructive as Hermine----or Hurricane Alicia (1983) if CMC is right?
Riverside, Calif Airport (KRAL)

Temps are starting to be much lower here. Normal is 91/63, down 3° from last month.
Quoting 118. barbamz:

Okay, as the blog is silent, here the latest weather related news from my sister, who - in the age of 53 - is traveling the US for the first time (with her husband). They were up to explore the Olympic Peninsula west of Seattle, but discontinued their course yesterday due to cold (45F, she said) and rainy weather, heading earlier than planned towards Mt. St. Helens, only to find it shrouded in rain clouds, so they skipped it as well. Right now I got some texts that they have fled towards Yakima Valley (Rattlesnake Hills) way further to the east. Wow, I texted back (after some research in google), this is a wine growing region, congratulations! - "Exactly, hicks!", was the reply, "and we just caught up with the sun". So I hope their last days in the US will be pleasant, and sister is in a good mood when returning to Germany on Sunday (no pleasure to be with her in bad mood, lol). Summer should be still here then. Right now models won't forecast any end of our very warm and dry summer weather, way above average for this time of the year. And I guess I'll have to accomplish another trip (through the heavy traffic in our metropolitan area near Frankfurt) to our weekend garden, usually maintained by my sister, to water the plants, sigh ;-)


It's all about perspective. My husband and I were camping in those same Olympic Mountains for the last week, just got home to Seattle last night. The weather was perfect! Not too sunny, just a little drizzle to keep the air fresh, and a highs around 60-65F, with lows in the 40s. Perfect weather to cozy up next to the campfire. Hope your sister had a nice time in any case!

Back over the Gulf...
If Hermine had a lesson to teach, it was that you shouldn't writ off systems in the Bahamas or GoM during peak of hurricane season. The water is just too warm, the models only need to be slightly off about wind shear and dry air to have a nasty surprise in store for those living under the threat of a tropical cyclone.
Could happen? Hopefully not!

Quoting 237. pureet1948:




Could Texas be facing a storm as destructive as Hermine----or Hurricane Alicia (1983) if CMC is right?
And a Hurricane!

Quoting 240. PedleyCA:


Back over the Gulf...
Quoting 243. swflurker:

And a Hurricane!




Still a Hurricane...
Quoting 242. swflurker:

Could happen? Hopefully not!




One of our bloggers on the khou.com weather forum, Srainhoutex, feels there'll be a slight window for development for 92L, assuming anything remains of it, upon entry into the Gulf. I suspect he's getting this from the recent CMC run.
Time to bail, later peeps....
Quoting 238. PedleyCA:

Riverside, Calif Airport (KRAL)

Temps are starting to be much lower here. Normal is 91/63, down 3 from last month.


perfect weather next door in orange county. don't even use the whole house fan. big bear lake in the mountains hit 38. reminds me of the 70s. PDO?
Quoting 234. unknowncomic:

Stranger things have happened. Welcome to the Wishcaster club! CMC refuses to give up on 92L and puts it in the GOM.



That's not 92L in the GOM that is the "swirl" currently located around 15 N, 50 W.
See comment 232!
Quoting 248. daddyjames:



That's not 92L in the GOM that is the "swirl" currently located around 15 N, 50 W.
Quoting 249. swflurker:

See comment 232!



Its a fighter, but I think dry air and shear is also going to do it in eventually. Retrograding ULL just to its NW not going to help it in the long run.
Ex-92L looks the best it has ever looked. Too bad its right on top of Hispaniola. Has an anticyclone on top, and the 700 mb & 500mb vorticities are stacked (according to CIMSS]. 850 mb still just a tiny bit off to the west, though.
If it wasn't going to run into Cuba, I would say I might have to prepare some crow to eat. If it keeps up, I may find myself looking up some new recipes.
Quoting 226. CaribBoy:



Turning N towards the High? Go figure....
Remember the DANIELLE and EARL 2010's scenario !
252. vis0
Here a bit of my thinking as to this years "weird" (to us) way of Tropical Storms (TS) limping as they head westward near 15degrees NORTH, eventually forming closer to the USofA.  As to the "close to the USofA" portion  those that read my crap understand my imaginary weather influencing device.
 
Yet in the aniGIF i rarely mention that imaginary device.
The animation is more of a observation on how TS can use their own internal burst as an outflow to battle and / or accentuate external shear against the TS.  This might be a preview of how the warmer atmosphere can be used  in that during years when no or few TS would've formed we might not see super TS but TS that battle shear with the excess rising warmth that might be too quick rising as to not allow a healthy spin up but that excess warmth can be redirected by a half spin and burst sequence to counteract external unfriendly shear.
 
image host
Good morning abroad with bad news from Greece. Told you yesterday of the dangerous cut off low in the central Mediterranean. Well, this is the result :-(



Three elderly people die in Greek flash flooding
Reuters, Wed Sep 7, 2016 10:01am BST
Three people died in widespread flash floods from heavy rains which lashed Greece overnight, the country's fire brigade said on Wednesday.
The three victims, all elderly, died at separate locations in the Messinia province, in the southern Peloponnese peninsula hardest hit by extreme weather conditions.
"I have never seen anything like it, said Panagiotis Nikas, mayor of the southern city of Kalamata.
"About 140 millimetres of rain fell in an hour this morning ... Can you imagine that? It hasn't stopped raining since yesterday at lunchtime," he told Reuters.
Seven communities in the wider region were cut off by floods, with extensive flood damage. The area is a vast plain where farming is the main activity.
Extensive damage was also reported in Greece's northern city of Thessaloniki, where television images showed cars washed out to sea or piled up from torrential rain. The fire brigade reported it received more than 500 distress calls.

(Reporting by Lefteris Papadimas, writing by Michele Kambas)

Some more details
Three Dead After Flood in Kalamata, One Missing in Thessaloniki
By Philip Chrysopoulos -Sep 7, 2016


Convection over southern Greece yesterday evening local time.
Another one from earlier today with even more of those evil lines of autogenerative convection.


Current pic (saved) of the circulating low. It has lost most of its power though.
Thanks for the reality check.

Quoting 214. hydrus:

For those who have not seen it, this is footage of Hurricane Hugo striking S.E. Puerto Rico. It is awesome video..It gets very intense between 14 and 20 minutes. Jim Leonard was with Michael Laca and others, taking shelter in a large concrete structure when it hit...Edit..I should mention that if you click the Hi Def box on the screen, it cuts out the best parts of the footage...Do not click hi defLink
255. SLU
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

Yeah in the FAR north Atlantic. We here on the islands don't even get decent Twaves anymore. The biggest shower i seen this year was yesterday with a little bit of thunder and 15mph winds. I'm not saying that we need a huge TC over the islands but we don't even get the weak ones. 99L pass way to the north with a sunny day here and 92L gave me and hour long tstorm with 15mph. So you tell me if the Atlantic Hasn't been the same in the past 5 years. Each of those years we ended with rain deficit by December time.
From 1995 to 2011 i experience seven TC and from 2012 to 2016 we had zero.



You are right. The Atlantic just doesn't feel the same. Tropical waves which used to blow up at 50 west and bring us nice weather can't even pop a thundershower. Almost all TCs in the MDR in the last 5 years have struggled to cross the Atlantic like an old man on crutches. Something is not right.
Quoting 254. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thanks for the reality check.




Same here. Big reality check. Hugo was massive. We easily had tropical storm conditions here in Wilmington when Hugo hit Charleston and God bless Charleston. They still had not recovered years later. We really do not want THAT.
Quoting 255. SLU:




You are right. The Atlantic just doesn't feel the same. Tropical waves which used to blow up at 50 west and bring us nice weather can't even pop a thundershower. Almost all TCs in the MDR in the last 5 years have struggled to cross the Atlantic like an old man on crutches. Something is not right.


I live on St. Maarten and I don't want my island to be disturbed by storms. I'm a modern day version of Oya, so look elsewhere for excitement. http://mediapoetry.blogspot.com/
258. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA / Meteostat
D&T:: On frames
AOI:: ITCZ plus Africa at 1 hr intervals.

Interesting burst (at countdown frame 017, upper right numbers) of energy  just in the cntrl SE/eSE of Saharan Dessert....within Sudan.   This is 1 of 5 Sat imagery i use to Observe TS (pouch) odds.  The predictions Grothar made correctly** had in that same area not as big of a burst but a wider northward coverage plus colder air going through South Africa further northward covering the lower quarter of Africa which might  in a domino type of affect push the outflow of the SE Saharan flow more into the Sahara thus cutting off SAL allowing the pouches to inhale more moist air instead of dry air.  The aniGIF progress stops  for 2 secs at the point where the stporms are to start blowing up (ESE Saharan area)

image host

**(i'm told last incorrect blob prediction was when Snoop and Mr. Willie Nelson had an off shore jambongree on a cruise and Grothar raised a blobcon alert then remembered it was Jan 1st but it was too late to cancel the initial blobcon alert.
I know the NHC are the experts, but the 70% chance of development for the wave in the eastern Atlantic, IMO, is too high. The 00z EURO dropped development of this storm, and GFS has never really shown it developing at all. Mark Sudduth also said yesterday that he thought the 70% odds were too high.
Well it appears (ex) 92l is taking its last dying breaths... I'm going to wait a few hours and check for a pulse. Carotid.
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

Yeah in the FAR north Atlantic. We here on the islands don't even get decent Twaves anymore. The biggest shower i seen this year was yesterday with a little bit of thunder and 15mph winds. I'm not saying that we need a huge TC over the islands but we don't even get the weak ones. 99L pass way to the north with a sunny day here and 92L gave me and hour long tstorm with 15mph. So you tell me if the Atlantic Hasn't been the same in the past 5 years. Each of those years we ended with rain deficit by December time.
From 1995 to 2011 i experience seven TC and from 2012 to 2016 we had zero.


Same here on Curaçao. We used to get rainy weeks. Now it is just a small shower and then waiting a few weeks for the next shower. We also used to get huge thunderstorms from the mainland Venezuela visiting us. Not anymore. Something has changed and i do not like it.
262. MahFL
Quoting 211. flibinite:

Hermine was certainly a strange.




How was Hermine "strange" ? It was a tropical wave that developed when the conditions allowed it to.
Quoting 263. beell:

How to make a Pine Needle Basket

Could you please provide a link? My hyperlinks don't work for some reason on iPhone and I don't know why :(. Miss out on mucho info
265. beell
Quoting 264. PuppyToes:


Could you please provide a link? My hyperlinks don't work for some reason on iPhone and I don't know why :(. Miss out on mucho info


You're killin' me!
http://youtu.be/hwmksujHnqk
:)
Quoting 264. PuppyToes:


Could you please provide a link? My hyperlinks don't work for some reason on iPhone and I don't know why :(. Miss out on mucho info

You definitely don't want to miss this one!!! .....hope you find the time.
guys please start calling it ex 92L there is no more 92L its gone poof


Link


every thing about 92L that was up has been re moved other wise you will be confuseing every one plesse call it ex 92L
Why does GFS continue to show the next AOI busting through the strong high pressure ridge, when it's not even a storm as soon as it starts it's northward move? According to the NWS in Melbourne, later next week the high is supposed to be stronger. Answers anybody?
Well here in southern Wisconsin just got a ton of rain and are still getting some. Last night alone my weather station recorded about 3.75 inches of rain,and it just keeps on coming.We are supposed to get another 2-3 inches on top of this.
Quoting 268. hurricanewatcher61:

Why does GFS continue to show the next AOI busting through the strong high pressure ridge, when it's not even a storm as soon as it starts it's northward move? According to the NWS in Melbourne, later next week the high is supposed to be stronger. Answers anybody?

Models have been erractically inconsistent this year, still season looks like a fail when it comes to intense hurricanes. Atlantic still feels like a warzone. 5 straight seasons now...

Quoting 236. unknowncomic:

CMC sends 92L to Texas as a TS.
Long Range CMC hardly ever correct.

we were really hoping 92l would hang around for the western carib.....we haven't had any real rain since early august
this is just getting scary now around here......no one wants a storm but I wonder whats worse?
I agree, the beginning of the Hurricane season hype from all these forecasters ends up not being what should have.
Quoting 271. wunderweatherman123:


Models have been erractically inconsistent this year, still season looks like a fail when it comes to intense hurricanes. Atlantic still feels like a warzone. 5 straight seasons now...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands accompanied
by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant
development is expected during the next couple of days, but
conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward toward the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



odd have drop from 30 now 20/70
276. beell
Quoting 268. hurricanewatcher61:

Why does GFS continue to show the next AOI busting through the strong high pressure ridge, when it's not even a storm as soon as it starts it's northward move? According to the NWS in Melbourne, later next week the high is supposed to be stronger. Answers anybody?


Can you post a model frame or frames that illustrates your question?
Quoting 261. MoeWest:



Same here on Curaçao. We used to get rainy weeks. Now it is just a small shower and then waiting a few weeks for the next shower. We also used to get huge thunderstorms from the mainland Venezuela visiting us. Not anymore. Something has changed and i do not like it.


It's been a super dry summer for Savannah, GA as well.
Quoting 275. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands accompanied
by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant
development is expected during the next couple of days, but
conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward toward the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



odd have drop from 30 now 20/70

Hermine really came through as a drought buster for Southern Maine: 0.02" total rainfall in 72 hrs and counting! (no, its not a typo, yes, I'm being sarcastic)
Quoting 274. hurricanewatcher61:

I agree, the beginning of the Hurricane season hype from all these forecasters ends up not being what should have.

They were forecasts, that's all. The hype came from a lot of us on here.
Quoting 274. hurricanewatcher61:

I agree, the beginning of the Hurricane season hype from all these forecasters ends up not being what should have.
1) What "hype"?

2) Which "forecasters"?

In May, NOAA said the final tally would most likely be 10-16/4-8/1-4. The current tally is 8/4/1. That means with just two more named storms--a pretty good likelihood, given that it's only September 7th--the NOAA's May forecast will have been spot on. Doesn't sound much like "hype", does it?

Of course, NOAA adjusted upward last month, and called for 12-17/5-8/2-4. So, we need four more named storms and just one more major hurricane to make that adjusted forecast valid. Again, completely within the realm of possibility and probability. Which is to say: not "hype".

The only real "hype" I've seen is in this forum, where some think *every* season is a bust if it doesn't put up 2005-sized numbers, or 2004-type destruction, or if every invest doesn't evolve into a Cat 5 monster. 8/4/1 at this point is hardly a bust of a "hyped" season.
Quoting 241. MJ0ZS4:

If Hermine had a lesson to teach, it was that you shouldn't writ off systems in the Bahamas or GoM during peak of hurricane season. The water is just too warm, the models only need to be slightly off about wind shear and dry air to have a nasty surprise in store for those living under the threat of a tropical cyclone.

Hermine struggled to reach its potential its entire existence. The models constantly showed it growing into a powerful hurricane. What I learned is just how hostile it is out there.
Quoting 281. Neapolitan:

1) What "hype"?

2) Which "forecasters"?

In May, NOAA said the final tally would most likely be 10-16/4-8/1-4.

Must be nice to work in a scientific field that allows for such variances. I predict that the New England Patriots will win between 6 and 14 games this year.
good/morning interestingly ex 92s convection is quite strong near Jamaica. where they say the pouch is located no much going on.
Quoting 267. thetwilightzone:

guys please start calling it ex 92L there is no more 92L its gone poof


Link


every thing about 92L that was up has been re moved other wise you will be confuseing every one plesse call it ex 92L
The things that rankle you!
Quoting 275. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands accompanied
by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant
development is expected during the next couple of days, but
conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward toward the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



odd have drop from 30 now 20/70


fish
Quoting 277. kingcounty1:



It's been a super dry summer for Savannah, GA as well.


Hermine helped more than it harmed here in Wilmington.
Quoting 286. Hester122:



fish



You are a fish
289. beell
Quoting 268. hurricanewatcher61:

Why does GFS continue to show the next AOI busting through the strong high pressure ridge, when it's not even a storm as soon as it starts it's northward move? According to the NWS in Melbourne, later next week the high is supposed to be stronger. Answers anybody?


We could start with the 700 mb 00 hr or analysis frame from today's GFS. The next AOI is an Atlantic Easterly Wave or AEW. It appears on this graphic as the yellow area (vorticity or spin) south of the Cabo Verde (Cape Verde Islands). The middle or axis of the "wave" is more or less in the middle of the "cyclonic" change in wind direction



AEW's typically have the strongest signature in the 850 to 700 mb layer. These "layers" are shown on a model chart as lines of equal height (in meters) and pressure (in mb's) or "Isohypeses". In other words, the pressure is the same height above the surface of the earth along the isohypse. Typically, the last digit is dropped. In the first frame, the isohypse nearest the AOI is labeled "320"-meaning the 700 mb pressure level is 3,200 meters above the sea-level surface (approx 10,500'). all along this line.

As you step through the forecast hrs, and follow the AEW at 700 mb, the ridge may not be as impenetrable as you may have been led to believe.

Then, if the wave becomes better defined (more spin), you have to add in the "beta-drift" term which results in a northwesterly tug to the system. Wouldn't call it a ridge buster yet!


Beta-drift
Don't worry about the math too much-just the concept.
Link


Well with thing out there looking dead We can go back too global warming and climate change topics


And we can talk about winter storm topic has well
Why can I not view the West African Graphics?

All others work fine.

I have cleared cache and reloaded page.

Mel
Quoting 283. JParsons:


Must be nice to work in a scientific field that allows for such variances. I predict that the New England Patriots will win between 6 and 14 games this year.
If you're the type that believes handicapping sporting events is the same as forecasting tropical activity, by all means make those predictions. (And side note: as a Dolphins fan, I'd be happy if the Pats went 6-10.)
Quoting 290. thetwilightzone:
Well with thing out there looking dead We can go back too global warming and climate change topics


And we can talk about winter storm topic has well


Please no.
Quoting 285. PensacolaDoug:

The things that rankle you!


O sweet irony,thank you.


🌎🌊🌉🎑
Quoting 287. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hermine helped more than it harmed here in Wilmington.


The Landings got hit hard though. A ton of fallen trees and debris.
just looking at some models 5 days out......cmc says no need to start talking about winter storms just yet......

ecmwf feels winter storms might be a good topic


same with the gfs

Definite spin north of Haiti, when you look at the visible sat! Question is will the shear in front of it move out before it starts heading towards the Bahamas. I know it has no model support. Just something to watch with TOASTY waters ahead and it being in the heart of Hurricane Season
#289 - beel

Many thanks for the link explaining beta drift. I had not seen this explained before, so very useful to know.

P.S. Just as an aside, the first slide also illustrates how one needs to be careful with spell-checkers. In this case the word 'from' has slipped through, whereas the word I presume should be 'form'? It's a mistake I've often made myself and usually only pick up when reading something aloud. There you go; still some things computers can't do ...
Quoting 280. pingon:


They were forecasts, that's all. The hype came from a lot of us on here.

That awkward moment when the mask comes off the hype monster and it was just us the entire time looking at a mirror making frumpy faces. Like the worst episode of scooby doo ever.
Quoting 279. tlawson48:

Hermine really came through as a drought buster for Southern Maine: 0.02" total rainfall in 72 hrs and counting! (no, its not a typo, yes, I'm being sarcastic)


That's 0.02" more than I had in DC. 0.5" in the past three weeks. We went into this with excellent soil moisture though so I'm only now seriously drying out (not yet too bad)
Quoting 292. Neapolitan:

If you're the type that believes handicapping sporting events is the same as forecasting tropical activity, by all means make those predictions. (And side note: as a Dolphins fan, I'd be happy if the Pats went 6-10.)


Both endeavours are easier than predicting what "Management" of a particular organization will do.
Good Morning:

T.S. Newton is headed for Arizona.

Dry air and sheer in the Atlantic tropical basin.

Today is September 7th, and it almost resembles an El Nino year, with the EPAC 14th named storm bringing rain to the SW USA.

Nora (1997), moved across Mexico, into Arizona, during an El Nino year.

8 named storms so far in the Atlantic Basin. It has been fairly active.

The ATL tropics will likely have more activity - before the season ends Nov 30th.

The statistical peak is Sept 10-11, but this year might occur later in the season.

Quoting 283. JParsons:


Must be nice to work in a scientific field that allows for such variances. I predict that the New England Patriots will win between 6 and 14 games this year.


I agree. Basically they are forecasting from 10 which is below average to 16 which is well above average. Like a casino, they will win no matter what.
Got it, thanks for the info!
Quoting 289. beell:



We could start with the 700 mb 00 hr or analysis frame from today's GFS. The next AOI is an Atlantic Easterly Wave or AEW. It appears on this graphic as the yellow area (vorticity or spin) south of the Cabo Verde (Cape Verde Islands). The middle or axis of the "wave" is more or less in the middle of the "cyclonic" change in wind direction



AEW's typically have the strongest signature in the 850 to 700 mb layer. These "layers" are shown on a model chart as lines of equal height (in meters) and pressure (in mb's) or "Isohypeses". In other words, the pressure is the same height above the surface of the earth along the isohypse. Typically, the last digit is dropped. In the first frame, the isohypse nearest the AOI is labeled "320"-meaning the 700 mb pressure level is 3,200 meters above the sea-level surface (approx 10,500'). all along this line.

As you step through the forecast hrs, and follow the AEW at 700 mb, the ridge may not be as impenetrable as you may have been led to believe.

Then, if the wave becomes better defined (more spin), you have to add in the "beta-drift" term which results in a northwesterly tug to the system. Wouldn't call it a ridge buster yet!


Beta-drift
Don't worry about the math too much-just the concept.
Link



Quoting 311. Grothar:




If they built a high nuff wall..they could stop this cyclone I bet.

Understood, yes and alot people do want to call the season a bust. But I for one do not care to see a year like 2004/05. Don't want to go through that again.
Quoting 281. Neapolitan:

1) What "hype"?

2) Which "forecasters"?

In May, NOAA said the final tally would most likely be 10-16/4-8/1-4. The current tally is 8/4/1. That means with just two more named storms--a pretty good likelihood, given that it's only September 7th--the NOAA's May forecast will have been spot on. Doesn't sound much like "hype", does it?

Of course, NOAA adjusted upward last month, and called for 12-17/5-8/2-4. So, we need four more named storms and just one more major hurricane to make that adjusted forecast valid. Again, completely within the realm of possibility and probability. Which is to say: not "hype".

The only real "hype" I've seen is in this forum, where some think *every* season is a bust if it doesn't put up 2005-sized numbers, or 2004-type destruction, or if every invest doesn't evolve into a Cat 5 monster. 8/4/1 at this point is hardly a bust of a "hyped" season.
Quoting 281. Neapolitan:

1) What "hype"?

2) Which "forecasters"?

In May, NOAA said the final tally would most likely be 10-16/4-8/1-4. The current tally is 8/4/1. That means with just two more named storms--a pretty good likelihood, given that it's only September 7th--the NOAA's May forecast will have been spot on. Doesn't sound much like "hype", does it?

Of course, NOAA adjusted upward last month, and called for 12-17/5-8/2-4. So, we need four more named storms and just one more major hurricane to make that adjusted forecast valid. Again, completely within the realm of possibility and probability. Which is to say: not "hype".

The only real "hype" I've seen is in this forum, where some think *every* season is a bust if it doesn't put up 2005-sized numbers, or 2004-type destruction, or if every invest doesn't evolve into a Cat 5 monster. 8/4/1 at this point is hardly a bust of a "hyped" season.

So true...couldn't agree more. Lots of users on here expect direct hits in their area, or else the season is a bust. To many users on here, fish storms mean nothing. Gaston was a beautiful hurricane, but appearantly it doesn't count to some because it was "too far north." The "cold AMO" argument of many does not make sense to me when SSTs in the MDR and far North Atlantic are well above average.
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Calibrated ECMWF Ensembles slamming the breaks on the development of Invest over the eastern Main Dev. region

@MJVentrice Any thoughts on why everything is struggling despite a seemingly favorable intraseasonal state?


I have that same question! WTH is wrong with the MDR?
Quoting 312. Patrap:



If they built a high nuff wall..they could stop this cyclone I bet.




OK, just out of sheer curiosity...I know hurricanes can break up when they hit mountains, so would, say, a 2k foot high wall do anything? What about a 5K foot high wall?

(I'm not seriously suggesting this, it's just a thought experiment.)
nothing on on anywhere....but it was supposed to right?
where is the fella that always post the chart which shows the peak of the season.....
Quoting 284. islander101010:

good/morning interestingly ex 92s convection is quite strong near Jamaica. where they say the pouch is located no much going on.
cloudless here and a thick haze.......again.....


So our little ex92L should just ride off into the sunset, right ? Hopefully ? Please ? Just don't want to see any CV's in the GOM

Not bad for a tropical storm over land.
Quoting 317. piperkat:



OK, just out of sheer curiosity...I know hurricanes can break up when they hit mountains, so would, say, a 2k foot high wall do anything? What about a 5K foot high wall?

(I'm not seriously suggesting this, it's just a thought experiment.)


Yes, a 5K foot high wall that extended for a few hundred miles would have a large impact on a cyclones circulation.
Wiki says the World's tallest building is 2,722 ft.
Quoting 321. BayFog:


Not bad for a tropical storm over land.




The rain is coming over the horizon in the long range (248nm) radar scan from Las Vegas.

Quoting 307. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning:

T.S. Newton is headed for Arizona.

Dry air and sheer in the Atlantic tropical basin.

Today is September 7th, and it almost resembles an El Nino year, with the EPAC 14th named storm bringing rain to the SW USA.

Nora (1997), moved across Mexico, into Arizona, during an El Nino year.

8 named storms so far in the Atlantic Basin. It has been fairly active.

The ATL tropics will likely have more activity - before the season ends Nov 30th.

The statistical peak is Sept 10-11, but this year might occur later in the season.




With La Nina forcasted and the warmest sea temps in years, it's possible we could see late season storms like in 2005. Don't be surprised to see something pop up in December in the Caribbean or gulf of Mexico.
the wave over Hispaniola ,won't develop for now ,but next week the remains of it ,once in the Gulf ,will be a menace for FL,AL,MS,LA and TX
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
327. vis0

Quoting 179. Grothar:

And just think how dangerous I could be, since English is actually my 3rd language.
(zilly]mumbling and cursing don't count as languages[zilly] ...i wonder how one says "blob" in all languages time to ask unkie googie