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Pesky Hermine Keeps Laboring; Strengthening Newton Heads for Baja California

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:04 PM GMT on September 05, 2016

The two-week marathon that gave us a string of names and a landfalling hurricane--Invest 99L, Tropical Depression 9, Tropical Storm Hermine, Hurricane Hermine, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine--rolls onward, with no immediate end on tap. Hermine remains a strong post-tropical cyclone, with data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight on Monday morning supporting peak surface winds of 70 mph as of the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Located about 230 miles southeast of Montauk, NY, on the eastern tip of Long Island, Hermine is now moving northwest at about 6 mph. Hermine has gotten close enough to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast shorelines to produce rough surf and riptides, but stayed enough out to keep weather impacts minimal thus far. The maximum storm surge observed on the U.S. coast late Monday morning was 1.6 feet in Chatham, Massachusetts. Showers and thunderstorms far north of Hermine’s center have been gradually shifting toward the west since Sunday, and it will be a windy, showery Labor Day on parts of Cape Cod, Long Island, and nearby islands. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect from eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut to the south shore of Cape Cod in Massachusetts, with coastal flood advisories along the Mid-Atlantic coast of New Jersey, Delaware, and Virginia, as well as parts of Chesapeake Bay.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Hermine as of 1337Z (9:37 am EDT) Monday, September 5, 2016. The brightest colors correspond to the coldest (highest) cloud tops, although few of these clouds were producing rainfall over New England except for southeast Massachusetts. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Hermine’s brush with Long Island and Cape Cod
For days, computer models had suggested that Hermine would be re-intensifying on Monday and perhaps regaining some tropical characteristics. It now appears that process has been torpedoed by a timing problem. On Sunday, Hermine was located near the north edge of the Gulf Stream, where it had access to 26-28°C waters (at least 2°C above average). The idea was that Hermine would take advantage of that oceanic warmth while an upper-level low to its west would give Hermine a dynamical boost and pull it closer to the U.S. coast. However, the upper low’s influence was delayed, in part because Hermine moved so far east over the weekend. Now Hermine is approaching waters cooler than 26°C, too cool to support much in the way of tropical redevelopment.

Computer models now agree on weakening Hermine gradually over the next couple of days, but residents of coastal New York and southern New England would be smart to keep an eye on it. The 00Z Monday runs of the GFS, European, and UKMET models--our three best track models--keep Hermine moving to the northwest or even west-northwest, bringing it by Tuesday within 200 miles of New York City and only about 100-150 miles south or southeast of Montauk. The models then start to move Hermine east-northeast on Wednesday at varying speeds, taking it just south of Cape Cod. If nothing else, Hermine’s approach will keep surf high and rip current dangerous, especially along beaches east and north of New York City and along the New Jersey coast. There is a chance of tropical-storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 mph or more) and bursts of heavy rain on eastern Long Island and over far southeast Massachusetts. Storm surge will be less than previously feared, but some minor coastal flooding remains possible, and beach erosion may mount over the next several days. For the latest on local impacts, check the local statements compiled on the NHC website.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Invest 92L at 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Monday, September 5, 2016. Image credit: CIMSS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Little change to 92L
Satellite images on Monday morning showed that the moderate level of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a large tropical wave passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 92L) had changed little since Sunday. 92L brought winds near tropical storm-force to the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night, according to data from the ASCAT satellite. No rotation of the storm’s echoes was apparent on Martinique radar, though. The wave is fighting a large amount of dry air, which is keeping heavy thunderstorm activity relatively sparse.

A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a west to west-northwest path, and the system will be near Jamaica by Wednesday and approach the western tip of Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday night. If 92L does develop, it probably won’t last long. The 8 am EDT Monday SHIPS model forecast for 92L showed light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots through through Tuesday, rising to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the latter part of the week. The latest 0Z Monday operational runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. Almost all of the ensemble members of the 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and European model that did develop 92L showed the storm being destroyed by high wind shear and dry air before reaching Jamaica on Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC dropped their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 10% and 20%, respectively.

New African tropical wave may develop late this week
A tropical wave expected to leave the coast of Africa on Tuesday could develop into a tropical depression by next weekend, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Monday runs of the UKMET and European models. The Sahara Desert dust and dry air machine will be moderately active during the week, and development of this new tropical wave will likely be hindered by dry air. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image for Tropical Storm Newton.

Hurricane warnings for Tropical Storm Newton along Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula
A hurricane warning is up for the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas, as a strengthening Tropical Storm Newton heads north-northwest at 12 mph. Newton formed in Mexico’s Pacific waters about 200 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta late Sunday night, and is already bringing very heavy rains and gusty winds to southwestern Mexico, as seen on satellite loops. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Newton on Monday afternoon.

Newton’s top winds had increased to 60 mph as of the 11 am EDT advisory from NHC, and an eye was beginning to appear on satellite imagery. There is potential for Newton to strengthen quite a bit more before its expected landfall on southern Baja California late Tuesday. The 12Z Monday output from the SHIPS statistical model shows a high potential for rapid intensification, with a 40% chance of Newton’s top winds increasing by at least 40 knots (46 mph) in 24 hours. That would make Newton a Category 2 storm by landfall. None of the 06Z Monday computer model runs show that amount of intensification, and it’s possible that dynamical factors not included in the SHIPS model will keep Newton from its full potential.

Newton’s north-northwest motion should take it off the Baja California peninsula and over the very warm waters of the Gulf of California by Wednesday, which could allow to be at or near tropical storm intensity as it approaches Arizona late Wednesday. Ahead of Newton’s large circulation, moisture will surge through the Gulf of California into the U.S. Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, fueling showers and thunderstorms. Heavier rains may develop late Wednesday into Thursday, especially over southeast Arizona, as the core of Newton moves inland. Newton’s moisture could also enhance thunderstorms over the southern and central Great Plains late this week.

We’ll be back with our next update on Tuesday. To our readers in the U.S. and Canada, Happy Labor Day!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Figure 4 WU depiction of official forecast for Tropical Storm Newton as of 11 am EDT Monday, September 6.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doks!
Question the direction being reported by Bouy 44008. There is a ship in the same area reporting:

SHIP
Location: 40.5N 69.3W
09/05/2016 1500 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 60.1 kts
Significant Wave Height: 19.7 ft
Dominant Wave period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and steady
Air Temperature: 64.9 °F
Dew Point: 61.9 °F
Water Temperature: 64.4 °F
Visibility: 2 nmi

While Bouy reports:

10:50 am W ( 260 deg ) 39.8 kts


Looks like people called off Hermine to early.This is going real close to eastern long island and right over Nantucket
Quoting 3. nrtiwlnvragn:

Question the direction being reported by Bouy 44008. There is a ship in the same area reporting:

SHIP
Location: 40.5N 69.3W
09/05/2016 1500 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 60.1 kts
Significant Wave Height: 19.7 ft
Dominant Wave period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and steady
Air Temperature: 64.9 °F
Dew Point: 61.9 °F
Water Temperature: 64.4 °F
Visibility: 2 nmi

While Bouy reports:

10:50 am W ( 260 deg ) 39.8 kts





Yikes, air temp 64, and water temp 64
That's a killer.
Quoting 3. nrtiwlnvragn:

Question the direction being reported by Bouy 44008. There is a ship in the same area reporting:

SHIP
Location: 40.5N 69.3W
09/05/2016 1500 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 60.1 kts
Significant Wave Height: 19.7 ft
Dominant Wave period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and steady
Air Temperature: 64.9 °F
Dew Point: 61.9 °F
Water Temperature: 64.4 °F
Visibility: 2 nmi

While Bouy reports:

10:50 am W ( 260 deg ) 39.8 kts





In tight to the northern vortice, perhaps. Nantucket and Montauk proper, should be seeing northerly winds veering to northeast.
Thanks Ole faithful Doc. We will be looking out for this new wave this week. But hoping it's a fish. It's way too wet on the island right now.
Thanks, Doc. Won't disregard 92-L till its gone, but it may not survive that nasty shear in the West Central Caribbean.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016

Corrected for initial motion in second paragraph

Hermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a broad curved band of showers to the north of the center. High-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls rotating around the broad center of the cyclone. An Air Force reconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface winds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt, both north of the center. The initial intensity estimate remains 60 kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also reflected in the official forecast.

The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of 325/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus.
Thank you for "laboring" for us on this day, gentlemen. Great update!
11. Ed22
Quoting 2. Patrap:





92L still has tropical storm force winds just need a closed circulation.
12. Ed22
Quoting 8. canehater1:

Thanks, Doc. Won't disregard 92-L till its gone, but it may not survive that nasty shear in the West Central Caribbean.
I can bet you it will.
Quoting 5. Sfloridacat5:



Yikes, air temp 64, and water temp 64
That's a killer.


Killer of what??
The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Depressing :(
Quoting 13. bryanfromkyleTX:



Killer of what??

Any possibility of tropical re-development.
Wow Hermine has three LLCs orbiting around a common center... Very interesting!

The wave coming off the African coast looks like it will merge with the one at 25W. Both waves have vigorous spin and the proximity to each other will not allow them to be separate entities.

Newton revving up as it moves to the NW off Mexico.
Big Atlantic bully getting 'high' and keeping Hermine pinned to the floor:
Hostile

Thanks for the update
Quoting 16. Doom2pro:

Wow Hermine has three LLCs orbiting around a common center... Very interesting!



Looks like they're trying to fuse into one bigger center


I am wind shear.....

Shatterer of tropical dreams.



Pass da Tabasco.






92L, getting better orgainized all the time. Look out everybody! Here we go again. Get ready for a bunch of crazy model runs to drive everybody insane.
Quoting 24. HurriHistory:



92L, getting better orgainized all the time. Look out everybody! Here we go again. Get ready for a bunch of crazy model runs to drive everybody insane.


not so fast its about too run in too 40kt of shear


Shrimp Alert is in effect!...

Really The weather channel is still in Atlantic City?.The Weather is up in Mass
In large Post tropical cyclones like this one it is common to see vortices rotating within a mean center.

One of my best loved framed pieces of photos are of major hurricanes/typhoons eye vortices....in a black And white montage.

Isabel is one in the montage.





Quoting 2. Patrap:





recon on the way too newton
12z GFS summary : another fish then another central antilles trash
Quoting 20. Grothar:

Hostile




Not east of the Lesser Antilles. But as usual no disturbances when we need them :\
I wonder if they'll post TS warnings for the south shore of MA with the N shift of the track
Quoting 26. GeoffreyWPB:

Shrimp Alert is in effect!...




I need more rain
Remembering Hurricane Fabian 5th Sept, 2003 today here in Bermuda. What a storm that was!
Quoting 35. CaribBoy:



I need more rain


You'll eat your shrimp and like it!
Study: Typhoons that slam Asia getting much stronger

Excerpt:

Overall, landfalling Asian typhoon intensity has increased by about 12 percent in nearly four decades. But the change is most noticeable for storms with winds of 130 mph or more, those in categories 4 and 5. Since 1977, they've gone from a once-a-year occurrence to four times a year, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Quoting 34. Methurricanes:

I wonder if they'll post TS warnings for the south shore of MA with the N shift of the track



i this noted you and I have the same date of AUGS 1st and only a few years apart

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Member Since: August 1, 2016 Posts: 0 Comments: 902

Hermine going steadily northwest.
Quoting 35. CaribBoy:



I need more rain
You got it !
the tropic weather out looks are vary late
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located over eastern Caribbean remains disorganized. Although
strong winds, possibly to tropical storm force, could still be
occurring in association with this system, development of the wave
is unlikely while it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea for
most of this week. This disturbance could produce periods of
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser
Antilles today, and over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today and
on Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive
for development when the wave approaches the Yucatan peninsula late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development of this system after that time while
the system moves west-northwestward into the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Quoting 25. thetwilightzone:



not so fast its about too run in too 40kt of shear




you may be right but the past 24 hours have witnessed the pocket of wind shear shrinking and dissipating.  92L has been cutting into it and there is stable air on the wind shears northern side.  i expect the pocket of wind shear to continue collapsing and dissipating.

Eweather ‏@Eweather13 4 Min.Vor 4 Minuten East Matunuck State Beach
Huge waves from #Hermine hitting RI. @JimCantore @mikeseidel @ericfisher @RachelFrank_CT @StormHour @Ginger_Zee

Hermine video clips on twitter (click the pic.twitter links):








wave at 43W may look insignificant ,but has good 850 mb vort.
Quoting 44. odinslightning:



you may be right but the past 24 hours have witnessed the pocket of wind shear shrinking and dissipating.  92L has been cutting into it and there is stable air on the wind shears northern side.  i expect the pocket of wind shear to continue collapsing and dissipating.




agreed 0% ch for the short term but 20% in the long term

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located over eastern Caribbean remains disorganized. Although
strong winds, possibly to tropical storm force, could still be
occurring in association with this system, development of the wave
is unlikely while it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea for
most of this week. This disturbance could produce periods of
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser
Antilles today, and over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today and
on Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive
for development when the wave approaches the Yucatan peninsula late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



the NHC now say 92L will have a better ch when it nears the gulf of MX later in the week

Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive
for development when the wave approaches the Yucatan peninsula late
looks like mx needs too watch 92L has it seems like this will be other earl set up
Hermine from ISS - about 4 hours ago.

Quoting 35. CaribBoy:



I need more rain


Northeasterly shear might blow convection and showers into your area

There is a cyclonic turning south of Mobile Bay this afternoon. I am currently on the beach at Perdido Key, Fl., and the winds have picked up this afternoon out of the ESE. The sky is very dark over the GOM.

(For some reason I am no longer able to post the radar loops?)
Quoting 14. CaribBoy:

The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Depressing :(


It'd be interesting, if you got what you really wish for, the change of your tone. You got your rain. I'd trade places with you any day. Jeez, buy a bike or a kayak or something. Hell, get your pilot license and fly. You'll never convince me it's that bad, and if it is, move. Seriously. It's become, along with wkc, kind of sad. Enjoy what you have! Gets annoying hearing you complain everyday. That is all.
Quoting 23. Patrap:

I am wind shear.....

Shatterer of tropical dreams.



Pass da Tabasco.


Oh, I wish also that 92L passes Tabasco without lingering, I guess they've had enough of torrential rain due to Earl...

...oh, you meant the spicy sauce? :)

And I was wondering why the amount of comments is so low today. A public holiday in N America may be the explanation? So, happy Labor Day to Dr Masters, Mr Henson and all N American commentators!

I wish there was some kind of public holiday here too. Then I wouldn't have a guilty feeling due to posting doom pictures rather than concentrating in my studies...

Quoting 32. CaribBoy:

12z GFS summary : another fish then another central antilles trash

Sounds like a bad day at the restaurant.
Quoting 53. GetReal:


There is a cyclonic turning south of Mobile Bay this afternoon. I am currently on the beach at Perdido Key, Fl., and the winds have picked up this afternoon out of the ESE. The sky is very dark over the GOM.


I Lot of Rain has fallen in that area as well. Some places in
Baldwin County have had as much as 6" of rain since 5am.
Also thinking that Mobile County could end up with some
as well.... For sure there's a Low Pressure spinning here on
the North Gulf Coast....

Taco :o)
Large system.

The GFDL takes Newton into AZ as a hurricane:
Dan Lindsey - mesovortices can be seen within the eye of typhoon Lionrock - Video (Aug. 27)

Pressure Drop - Lapham's Quarterly
Exploring - and ignoring - climate chaos in the South Pacific.

Heatwave in Spain - previous record high in the month of September, all European countries included (since 1948) shattered today : 44.9 C / 112.8 F recorded in Cordoba.
Many Spanish cities, especially in the south of the country have recorded very high temp in the last days. Sevilla has beaten its own record for the year (last one 42.3 C in July) with 44 C recorded at 4 PM local time. Link

--- 9 x 44 = 396. 3 plus 9 plus 6 = 18. 1 plus 8 = 9.
Quoting 58. Grothar:

Large system.




It sure will surprise everyone if this "Thing" forms into a storm before it
reaches the Yucatan Channel....
j/s

Taco :o)
05/1745 UTC 15.5N 66.8W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
Quoting 35. CaribBoy:



I need more rain


Carib, give thanks. You are probably getting more than I did. You might even be getting some wind gusts on the northern end of this wave. We had none.

Quoting 61. taco2me61:



It sure will surprise everyone if this "Thing" forms into a storm before it
reaches the Yucatan Channel....
j/s

Taco :o)


if the shear continues to back off in front of 92L we may have a situation like Hermine for a couple of days.  However once the shear backs off a lot of other variables are more favorable to 92L than were favorable to Hermine.
Quoting 59. brandyn:

The GFDL takes Newton into AZ as a hurricane:

This is the 850hpa level which is I believe 1.5 kilometers above the sea. At the surface it should be a depression, possibly a 40mph system right at first glancing bands. Under is the 10m winds.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
While Hermine spins off New England and Newton threatens Cabo, we have some important hurricane history today:

Looking back 81 years ago, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane ripped apart the Florida Keys. It was one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the United States and it still remains the strongest Atlantic, let alone U.S, landfalling hurricane in recorded history.
Quoting 53. GetReal:

There is a cyclonic turning south of Mobile Bay this afternoon. I am currently on the beach at Perdido Key, Fl., and the winds have picked up this afternoon out of the ESE. The sky is very dark over the GOM.

(For some reason I am no longer able to post the radar loops?)


Probably need to remove the (s) in https://. I recently found that out.
If 92L doesn't slow down it will be named "Dusty." However"Dusty" will be capable of bringing copious amounts of precipitation to those in its path.
Quoting 58. Grothar:

Large system.

ECMWF 12z still doesn't take much notice. No development of 92L at all.
Quoting 70. barbamz:


ECMWF 12z still doesn't take much notice. No development of 92L at all.


the GFS and ecmwf did the same with Hermine and look what happen we all most got a cat 2! be for land fall
Quoting 70. barbamz:


ECMWF 12z still doesn't take much notice. No development of 92L at all.


Conditions will slowly deteriorate before they get better. I agree wholeheartedly with NHC in keeping %'s low. Maybe in wcarib, it'll have a fighting chance, but even then, conditions may not allow development. We'll see.
if the high pressure ridging to the north of hernine does not move the tracks are going to shift west over...and over...and over again....as it moves directly towards RI/NY/Conn/Mass/NJ
Not much SAL out there right now.
Doubt this'll stay 40 frames for long before a bandwidth issue springs and reduces it to 12, but in the meantime, here ya go:

Quoting 74. HurricaneFan:

Not much SAL out there right now.


Quoting 75. GatorWX:

Doubt this'll stay 40 frames for long before a bandwidth issue springs and reduces it to 12, but in the meantime, here ya go:


The South Shore Looks like its about to get into the action. I surprised they aren't under a TS Warning.
17.44.20N 64.41.49W Large active cell passing due South of my Longitude by 30 miles or so. Some squalls here, .03" total storm rainfall, so far. Barometer 29.92 and falling. 78 blissfully cool degrees in complete cloud cover and gusty ESE wind. Me thinks 92L will be well West of here early this evening.
Moderate to numerous showers here, flood warning issued, lightening and thunder. At work now. Hope I can cross that little bridge on my way home later. If it's flooded I'm in trouble
Great weather though
Hmm... if 92L keeps it together and keep moving like its moving I might have an interesting night.
Lots of maybes & uncertainty in there. XD

Quoting 65. odinslightning:




if the shear continues to back off in front of 92L we may have a situation like Hermine for a couple of days. However once the shear backs off a lot of other variables are more favorable to 92L than were favorable to Hermine.



Quoting 70. barbamz:


ECMWF 12z still doesn't take much notice. No development of 92L at all.


Right now a trough split (courtesy of Hermine and the ULL she is flirting with) spells doom for 92L in the GOM. That is the source of all the potential shear 92L may encounter when it (if it) enters the GOM.

weather.msfc.nasa.gov : GOES-E CONUS - Hermine link.
Fiona part 2 on the EURO
some thing odd is going on here





this is saying 92L is at 14N 67W how ever there really is nothing there at 14N at lest what i can see all so 92L should be zipping a long but if you look at the sat light view for 17N 64W you will find that 92L has really not moved march at all

AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV


so wish area is right 14N 67W or 17N 64W? all so if 92L is zipping a long at 14N and 67W then is that area that lookes stalled at 17N 64W a new area? it all so looks like that area is moving due N heading for PR why 92L is zipping a long at 14N and 67W
Not exactly sure how the storm will bust through the ridge but okay...

Some Maine beach cams. Swell is slipping into the craggy coast.

Rhode Island is probably working well. Block Island, Montauk and Nantucket all probably showing large swell.

Link

Link
Rain getting ready to come into st.thomas
Quoting 67. Ryan1000:

While Hermine spins off New England and Newton threatens Cabo, we have some important hurricane history today:

Looking back 81 years ago, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane ripped apart the Florida Keys. It was one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the United States and it still remains the strongest Atlantic, let alone U.S, landfalling hurricane in recorded history.


Obviously very strong storm, but Allen, Gilbert, and Wilma were stronger.
Quoting 53. GetReal:

There is a cyclonic turning south of Mobile Bay this afternoon. I am currently on the beach at Perdido Key, Fl., and the winds have picked up this afternoon out of the ESE. The sky is very dark over the GOM.

(For some reason I am no longer able to post the radar loops?)


Went to the RAP, first. A surface trough. Then, the KMOB discussion. They're on it!



...best moisture convergence and enhanced lift continues to be along a remnant sfc trof generally stretching from just north of Pensacola Fl to south of New Orleans progged to become diffuse as its drifts mostly southward through tonight...


Quoting 88. HaoleboySurfEC:

Some Maine beach cams. Swell is slipping into the craggy coast.

Rhode Island is probably working well. Block Island, Montauk and Nantucket all probably showing large swell.

Link

Link


Did you see the guy in the pic from barb's post @ 45?
I'd rather be chased by a tornado!
vary hvy rain heading for PR on PR rader

Good Afternoon and happy Labor Day to everyone. The wave south of PR is only slated for 20% development in the long-term in the recent discussion from just the last hour but surprised to see the "comma" look on this little bugger at the moment. It's the classic signature for a developing TD:





One has to remove the "s" from the https when posting a wu radar



This run seems fishy to me.The panel before shows a weak storm at best busting through a 1028 high.Something doesn't seem right with this picture.
Quoting 59. brandyn:

The GFDL takes Newton into AZ as a hurricane:


Has Arizona ever been hit by a hurricane before!?
216 hours, looks like another tropical cyclone is forming near the Cape Verde Islands:
Quoting 90. robj144:



Obviously very strong storm, but Allen, Gilbert, and Wilma were stronger.
It would be interesting to know what all the parameters were present that allowed that to happen(anti cyclone, rh, sst, upper level steerings, mjo etc.). Certainly not happening on this Labor Day.
Is this the 3rd instant of an invest in the Atlantic just this year with 40 MPH sustained winds? This is definitely year of the invests.
Quoting 94. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon and happy Labor Day to everyone. The wave south of PR is only slated for 20% development in the long-term in the recent discussion from just the last hour but surprised to see the "comma" look on this little bugger at the moment. It's the classic signature for a developing TD:








am starting too agreed 92 L is at 17N and 64W

what the NHC is tracking there really is nothing at 14N and 67W

AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV


this is closer too what i was thinking but still a bit off the mark has well

05/1745 UTC 15.5N 66.8W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic


i all so noted 92L has been heading due N getting closer too PR this PM
92L will make it through the high wind shear and slow down. It will then organize in the Western Caribbean and will be a tropical storm before going over the Yucatan into the Southern GOM. I think it will strike from mid Texas Gulf Coast down to Mexico.

Blair Perkins ‏@xplorenantucket 9 Min.Vor 9 Minuten
Multiple boats sunk or dragging anchor. #Nantucket harbor #Hermine @MattNoyesNECN @WX1BOX @WCVB @capecodweather
Quoting 101. thetwilightzone:



am starting too agreed 92 L is at 17N and 64W

what the NHC is track there really nothing at 14N and 67W

AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV


this is closer too what i was thinking but still a bit off the mark has well

05/1745 UTC 15.5N 66.8W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic


i all so noted 92L has been heading due N getting closer too PR this PM

Maybe the models aren't initializing 92L correctly. This would definitely impact whether they show development or not.
Amazing how large these systems expand at northern latitudes

I don't think the storm will turn as far north as the Euro is advertising.Last panel though
Quoting 98. HurricaneFan:

216 hours, looks like another tropical cyclone is forming near the Cape Verde Islands:


Fishes it out. Euro either fish biased or just downright depressing
Quoting 104. HurricaneFan:


Maybe the models aren't initializing 92L correctly. This would definitely impact whether they show development or not.


i agreed the NHC needs too wake up
Quoting 97. AldreteMichael:



Has Arizona ever been hit by a hurricane before!?


I don't know but I do have some ocean front property there.

From my front porch I can see the sea.
Quoting 104. HurricaneFan:


Maybe the models aren't initializing 92L correctly. This would definitely impact whether they show development or not.


all so with 92L being more N then S has i been saying 92L is at 17N 64W

92L is no where near 14N nothing is there zip 0 nothing we can throw out the model runs
Quoting 108. thetwilightzone:



i agreed the NHC needs too wake up

Hey Taz
Yesterday you were calling a RIP for 92L....
What changed your mind????

Taco :o)
112. beell
48 hrs of TUTT in 12 hr slices-compliments of the GFS.


12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 6 hrs (left), @ 30 hrs (right).


12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 42 hrs (left), @ 54 hrs (right).
Recon is on the way to Newton... should be a very interesting flight.


Quoting 94. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon and happy Labor Day to everyone. The wave south of PR is only slated for 20% development in the long-term in the recent discussion from just the last hour but surprised to see the "comma" look on this little bugger at the moment. It's the classic signature for a developing TD:






wind shear in front of 92L is being attacked on all sides, from the southwest directly to the north of it and by 92L.  the wind shear map shows it has gone from a dark cardinal to crimson red yesterday to a yellow today.  the overall pocket of wind shear is collapsing and its northern section is fading fast.

92L may not go through ri/rd in the next 24-48 hours, but i am more bullish on development than many were as of yesterday.
Not second guessing NHC by any means as it is headed right into PR and very unfavorable shear that will prevent development in the short-term but I think the wave is taking advantage of the the small shear window to try to organize at the last minute free from any TUTT interference and gong through warm ssts. Impressive convective burst over the last few hours trying to lower pressures and organize.
Also notice the little ULAC over the convective burst; probably why we are seeing a banding type feature in the NE Quad of the wave.


Shear Out Ahead:

Lower Level Vort (very broad and not concentrated)


Tutt Free:



Quoting 102. scott39:

92L will make it through the high wind shear and slow down. It will then organize in the Western Caribbean and will be a tropical storm before going over the Yucatan into the Southern GOM. I think it will strike from mid Texas Gulf Coast down to Mexico.



see post 104 and 101 and get back too me
I'm interested to know if he made it. Looked like Matunuck or Garbage Holes. I've only surfed Rhode Island a few times; mainly Pt. Judith and Ruggles but I think that spot was Matunuck or Misquamicut (sp?). All I know is that this is a storm for the OBX and north. Those of us south of Cape Lookout are out of luck with exception of possibly FL, Bahamas and PR. We are in the wave shadow. Common set up for us in the winter when all the meaty storms blow up north of 35N.

Actually Hermine's waves are nothing spectacular to winter surfers of the northeast. But it is a nice warm swell for them without all the heavy gear. My buddy just paddled out in Ocean City, NJ and he sent me pics. It is "going off."

Quoting 92. beell:



Did you see the guy in the pic from barb's post @ 45?
I'd rather be chased by a tornado!
92L is doing vary well this PM at 17N heading do N in too PR this PM
Moving fast. Shear changes fast. If it survives the next 48, I believe we will see the %'s go up dramatically. I also don't think it will take an Earl track if it survives. Thinking over Cuba. But too soon as conditions in that area will change rapidly.

Quoting 94. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon and happy Labor Day to everyone. The wave south of PR is only slated for 20% development in the long-term in the recent discussion from just the last hour but surprised to see the "comma" look on this little bugger at the moment. It's the classic signature for a developing TD:






Quoting 119. HaoleboySurfEC:

Moving fast. Shear changes fast. If it survives the next 48, I believe we will see the %'s go up dramatically. I also don't think it will take an Earl track if it survives. Thinking over Cuba. But too soon as conditions in that area will change rapidly.




Correct on the speed issue; moving waaaaay too fast to be able to stack properly. Once it slows down, and shear drops to favorable conditions once it clears PR and Hispanola, it may have a shot downstream.

Time will tell.
Quoting 101. thetwilightzone:



am starting too agreed 92 L is at 17N and 64W

what the NHC is tracking there really is nothing at 14N and 67W

AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV


this is closer too what i was thinking but still a bit off the mark has well

05/1745 UTC 15.5N 66.8W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic


i all so noted 92L has been heading due N getting closer too PR this PM


iT IS NOT MOVING DUE NORTH IF YOU LOOK CORRECTLY !!!
Quoting 122. James1981cane:



iT IS NOT MOVING DUE NORTH IF YOU LOOK CORRECTLY !!!



YOU DONT NEED TOO YELL ABOUT IT AND YES IT IS MOVING DUE N
Quoting 112. beell:

48 hrs of TUTT in 12 hr slices-compliments of the GFS.


12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 6 hrs (left), @ 30 hrs (right).


12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 42 hrs (left), @ 54 hrs (right).


TUTT axis moving westward and upper level ridging building in the Caribbean. So far the system has stayed closer the the upper ridge, if it can slow down it might have a chance.
Quoting 68. GatorWX:



Probably need to remove the (s) in https://. I recently found that out.


Quoting 123. thetwilightzone:




YOU DONT NEED TOO YELL ABOUT IT AND YES IT IS MOVING DUE N

Hey Taz I've been looking at it for a while now and I don't see it
moving North.
Can you show me why you think it's moving North????

Taco :o)
Quoting 125. Drakoen:



TUTT axis moving westward and upper level bridging building in the Caribbean. So far the system has stayed closer the the upper ridge, if it can slow down it might have a chance.


Yup; you can see some of the westward retrograde of the Tutt cell draped from Jamaica to the NE of Cuba on the current WV loop:


Eye see you!!! *newton*

Quoting 116. thetwilightzone:




see post 104 and 101 and get back too me

Hey Taz, Go back and look on the Visible Sat. and look at the exposed spin at around 15.1 N and 67.2 W. I believe that is what the models are tracking. The convection to the NE is strong and we know how centers can relocate in disorganized systems , so we will have to wait and see.
Quoting 127. taco2me61:


Hey Taz I've been looking at it for a while now and I don't see it
moving North.
Can you show me why you think it's moving North????

Taco :o)


PR rader will show it all



This area of t-storms south of Mobile Bay has some punch to it!!! Watch out NOLA if this heads west this evening and it stays together.
And I am even more impressed with the most recent vis loop frame:




137. JLPR2
The AOI at 45w has about the same 850mb vort strength as 92L and nicer convergence. Decent.



Quoting 132. thetwilightzone:



PR rader will show it all




Sorry bud, but I see West not North movement...

Taco :o)
140. beell
The large wave (92L) starting to amplify a bit (it gets a bit more "kinky") compared to yesterday. Convection stays rooted to the northern end of the wave axis. As it amplifies or sharpens to the north, so goes the track forecasts. Certainly not a slow mover.






Some signs of trouble ahead for 92L. The clouds streaming off to the northeast (inside the magenta...uh...fuschia...PINK oval) seem to include some mid-level cloud as opposed to strictly upper level cirrus.
141. Kyon5
Quoting 137. JLPR2:

The AOI at 45w has about the same 850mb vort strength as 92L and nicer convergence. Decent.




It's also moving at snail speed which could allow it to get better organized. We'll see what happens.
142. beell
Quoting 125. Drakoen:



TUTT axis moving westward and upper level ridging building in the Caribbean. So far the system has stayed closer the the upper ridge, if it can slow down it might have a chance.


Agree.
If PR and Hispanola were not in the way, we could have been looking at a possible TD between this evening and tomorrow morning if the current shear drop, which is giving 92L some short-term breathing space, continued to propagate westward as the Tutt also gets out of the way IMHO.  As it stands, the interaction with PR and Hispanola should put the brakes on soon in terms of consolidation at the surface:






Quoting 38. nrtiwlnvragn:

Study: Typhoons that slam Asia getting much stronger

Excerpt:

Overall, landfalling Asian typhoon intensity has increased by about 12 percent in nearly four decades. But the change is most noticeable for storms with winds of 130 mph or more, those in categories 4 and 5. Since 1977, they've gone from a once-a-year occurrence to four times a year, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

I have yet to read the actual study yet, but it is an interesting topic. In particular, the following excerpt from the article caught my attention.

Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach says the study makes sense and raises interesting questions, but adds that some of the storms before 1987 might have had their wind speeds under-estimated. Mei said he thinks that time period actually had better measurements because planes were then flying into storms to gauge their strength.


Despite the fact that aircraft recon did stop in the Tropical Western Pacific in 1987, I'd agree with Dr. Klotzbach that wind speeds were often underestimated in the 1970s and 1980s WPac recon era (particularly with the most intense storms), yielding generally less reliable wind estimates than are derived through current use of the Dvorak Technique. During the late 1970s and 1980s, wind measurements were rarely directly measured by recon, but rather derived straight from a central pressure measurement through the Atkinson-Holliday P/W relationship. Contemporary data strongly suggests that the deeper pressures of AH77 were matched with wind estimates considerably too low. 898 mb was matched with 140 kt, 879 mb with 155 kt, and 858 mb with 170 kt. As a result, even with exceptionally deep pressures often well below 900 mb, CIs of typhoons rarely met T7.5 (155 kt). In fact, the only two of the late '70s to late '80s time period were Tip '79 and Vanessa '84, whose 165 kt and 155 kt intensities are directly pulled from AH77 by their pressure measurements (870 mb and 879 mb, respectively). Honestly, the entirety of the WPac records prior to 1992 is probably in need of a serious reanalysis overhaul.
Quoting 136. GetReal:




It's moving towards the NE right?
18Z (current)

Wind: 35 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 14.8N 67.0W

12Z (earlier)

Wind: 35 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 14.5N 65.2W


WEST
Quoting 130. 62901IL:

Eye see you!!! *newton*



Moving fast.
Quoting 141. Kyon5:

It's also moving at snail speed which could allow it to get better organized. We'll see what happens.


And likely avoid the N Leewards, VI and PR ... :(
Quoting 146. Grothar:

18Z (current)

Wind: 35 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 14.8N 67.0W

12Z (earlier)

Wind: 35 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 14.5N 65.2W


WEST


that is not where 92L is at sorry that is wrong 92L is closer too 17N and 64W and really has not moved march at all from that area today what the NHC is tracking is a oh lot of nothing in that area has they have 92L too far S you can all so throw out the model runs has they too are all so too far S
Going to be interesting if 92L is in the process of slowing down and beginning to get better stacked. I'll be checking tonight and tomorrow. Just when you think 2016 might get dull...


Quoting 143. weathermanwannabe:

If PR and Hispanola were not in the way, we could have been looking at a possible TD between this evening and tomorrow morning if the current shear drop, which is giving 92L some short-term breathing space, continued to propagate westward as the Tutt also gets out of the way IMHO.  As it stands, the interaction with PR and Hispanola should put the brakes on soon in terms of consolidation at the surface:







Just noting before making the chicken wing and snack run for the FSU-Ole Miss game this evening that the updated PM vort charts for 92L are still showing a very broad and elongated surface circulation and nothing to speak of at the mid-levels in spite of the very impressive visual presentation on the satt loops at the moment.





There is a reason NHC are the pros and only going with 20% at the moment I suppose................Everyone enjoy the rest of the day and will check back in about a week as I am headed to Orlando for a conference tomorrow.


Lower:




Mid:


152. Kyon5
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:



And likely avoid the N Leewards, VI and PR ... :(
The ridge is strong enough to keep it moving westward, afaik.
Who to believe, NHC or TTZ?
Quoting 153. nrtiwlnvragn:

Who to believe, NHC or TTZ?



i say the TTZ right now
Tracking Hermine on radar out of New England has been extremely aggravating. Most of the squalls seem to dry up as they get near land.
Quoting 54. GatorWX:



It'd be interesting, if you got what you really wish for, the change of your tone. You got your rain. I'd trade places with you any day. Jeez, buy a bike or a kayak or something. Hell, get your pilot license and fly. You'll never convince me it's that bad, and if it is, move. Seriously. It's become, along with wkc, kind of sad. Enjoy what you have! Gets annoying hearing you complain everyday. That is all.


Thanks for the advice. I apologize.

It's true that I got what I wish for. The rain fell all day, and it's still falling.

Some rain gauges exceed 2" for the day. But we remain below average.

Maybe more rain opportunities are coming though. Hopefully.

Quoting 155. George1938:

Tracking Hermine on radar out of New England has been extremely aggravating. Most of the squalls seem to dry up as they get near land.



may be air is too dry there?
Quoting 152. Kyon5:

The ridge is strong enough to keep it moving westward, afaik.


The GFS has it just NE of the NE Caribbean Islands. But I hope it comes closer.
This is a most troubling spread of solutions with the models!

Quoting 149. thetwilightzone:



that is not where 92L is at sorry that is wrong 92L is closer too 17N and 64W and really has not moved march at all from that area today what the NHC is tracking is a oh lot of nothing in that area has they have 92L too far S you can all so throw out the model runs has they too are all so too far S


Don't look at the convection, Taz. In an unorganized system convection could be thrown off in any direction. But if you think it is moving north, I'll respect your observation, but you don't get any cookies.
161. beell
Quoting 146. Grothar:

18Z (current)

Wind: 35 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 14.8N 67.0W

12Z (earlier)

Wind: 35 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 14.5N 65.2W


WEST


@ 18 knots, more or less if we go with that.
Captured Hermine looking like a horse.. Here is the musical accompaniment. Have a great Labor Day Everyone!
I've eaten so much potato salad today, they're calling me Spud. Deserts are coming out. See you all later.
There's a chocolate cream pie with my name on it.


P.S. Let me know if 92L is still moving west :)
Newton close to hurricane, Recon not at center yet


Time: 20:27:30Z
Coordinates: 21.133N 107.100W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,111 m (10,207 ft)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 155° at 72 kts (From the SSE at 82.9 mph)
Air Temp: 10.0°C* (50.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 kts (85.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)
Though Newton probably only has 18-24 hours until landfall, its rapidly strengthening and recon is starting to show flight level winds between 64-83 kts.
166. IDTH
Quoting 159. AldreteMichael:

This is a most troubling spread of solutions with the models!



lol! Dat spread doh!
Hint of a slowdown? Maybe?

Quoting 161. beell:



@ 18 knots, more or less if we go with that.


Better than SAL
171. beell
Quoting 169. HaoleboySurfEC:

Hint of a slowdown? Maybe?




I'd say no. This wave was east of the Antilles yesterday. Pretty zippy. Where "it" "was" at 12Z and where "it" "was" at 18Z is a bit too nebulous to pin down a speed to within 1-2 knots.

15 to 20 knots would be the "weaseley" guess.
are conditions better north of pr. and se Bahamas.
I've made a blog entry to coincide with the twentieth anniversary of Hurricane Fran. Check it out if you like, it's brief.

Link
175. IDTH

176. IDTH

177. JLPR2
Decent TS force gusts in my area.

Carolina, PR - Luis Munoz Marin International

4:56 PM 77.0 °F 94% 29.97 in 0.5 mi ESE 24.2 mph 40.3 mph 0.01 in Fog , Rain

Quoting 149. thetwilightzone:



that is not where 92L is at sorry that is wrong 92L is closer too 17N and 64W and really has not moved march at all from that area today what the NHC is tracking is a oh lot of nothing in that area has they have 92L too far S you can all so throw out the model runs has they too are all so too far S



Taz, you're starting to sound like WKC...it's not going N, but what do I know.

Hurricane NEWTON


3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 5
Location: 20.3°N 108.1°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
WKC are you out there ? whats your takes on 92L this PM and how do you feel about 17N and 64W?
Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:

Just noting before making the chicken wing and snack run for the FSU-Ole Miss game this evening that the updated PM vort charts for 92L are still showing a very broad and elongated surface circulation and nothing to speak of at the mid-levels in spite of the very impressive visual presentation on the satt loops at the moment.

There is a reason NHC are the pros and only going with 20% at the moment I suppose................Everyone enjoy the rest of the day and will check back in about a week as I am headed to Orlando for a conference tomorrow.


The NHC are the pro's, but I would never count out "TheTwilightZone", also try "Duffy's" for wings, I've tried many places but I think they're the best! Enjoy Orlando!
hmmm did the atcf just drop 92L? i noted that the file for 92L has not be updated like the rest
Quoting 180. thetwilightzone:

WKC are you out there ? whats your takes on 92L this PM and how do you feel about 17N and 64W?


The convection does appear to have a nw movement on satellite
Here in Puerto Rico one person died when a tree branch fall after 40 mph up gusts.
Oh man. Newton went from a 35 MPH TD to a 75 MPH hurricane in 24 hours! Look at it now. It looks amazing on satellite.

Quoting 183. alluvion1134:



The convection does appear to have a nw movement on satellite


thank you at lest some one nos what am talking about and am not crazy
Quoting 178. cat6band:




Taz, you're starting to sound like WKC...it's not going N, but what do I know.

I don't know if he is more knowledgeable than the "T-zone", but he does come off very authoritative due to his impressive mustache.
188. joHS
this is on this site, ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922016.dat taz don't know if same stuff you are looking for

AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 146N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV,
AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV,
189. joHS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS IS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY
UNDER 5 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SURGE OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO
5-6 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON FRI...AND MOVE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT...ENHANCING THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE REGION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 65W/66W. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
15N66W AT 1500 UTC. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS...SQUALLS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. CURRENTLY...
SURFACE DATA...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDE TO
8-10 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE/LOW. AS A RESULT...THE GALE
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON FRI. FOR NOW...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE APPROACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEK
It's yet to be seen if the shear from the TUTT moves in tandem in front of 92l. That seems to be the only way it doesn't get shredded. It sure does seem that many things have to happen just right for tropical systems to happen in the Atlantic. The EPAC just cranks em out like it is its job....
Quoting 185. AldreteMichael:

Oh man. Newton went from a 35 MPH TD to a 75 MPH hurricane in 24 hours! Look at it now. It looks amazing on satellite.




And it still may Rapidly Intensify.
12Z GEOS-5 takes 92L to Puerto Rico tonight and early tomorrow.


Then to Hispaniola.. & Cuba, doesn't develop it by 120hrs with all the land interaction. This is similiar to what it had for 99L. I'll give 92L a 40% chance of eventually developing.


it sure does
it also seems like the only time we get rain is if an organized system goes by.
Historically we used to get rain from daytime heating thunderstorms like Cuba gets......havent been getting those for sometime now....just haze and heat. I wonder if this system will track a bit closer to Cayman than the NHC is saying.
Quoting 190. alluvion1134:

It's yet to be seen if the shear from the TUTT moves in tandem in front of 92l. That seems to be the only way it doesn't get shredded. It sure does seem that many things have to happen just right for tropical systems to happen in the Atlantic. The EPAC just cranks em out like it is its job....
Quoting 185. AldreteMichael:

Oh man. Newton went from a 35 MPH TD to a 75 MPH hurricane in 24 hours! Look at it now. It looks amazing on satellite.




Hurricane Patricia intensified 100 mph in 24 hours in the eastern Pacific. So you really have to watch those systems.
And that increase of 40 mph today for Newton is considered (Rapid Intensification). Anything 30 mph or more in a 24 hour period is considered Rapid Intensification.
196. beell
Probably nothing and it does not look like much. A bit of energy left behind from Hermine and/or the tail-end of the attendant cold front (stationary) drifting west across the gulf. Maybe even some phasing or entanglement with 92L. It's possible, that some of the gun-happy models were keying on this in the development of something or other headed for TX. I'd rather be wrong than not mention it at all.



ADDED: no model support
might be related to the area directly underneath the TUTT axis

92 may go north of dr. and into se Bahamas.
92L bringing rains to PR.

Quoting 196. beell:

Probably nothing and it does not look like much. A bit of energy left behind from Hermine and/or the tail-end of the attendant cold front (stationary) drifting west across the gulf. Maybe even some phasing or entanglement with 92L. It's possible, that some of the gun-happy models were keying on this in the development of something or other headed for TX. I'd rather be wrong than not mention it at all.



ADDED: no model support




Storming here at the house in S. Fort Myers in S.W. Florida. Oh, and our local meteorologist said today would be dry during the local morning news. That forecast sure changed this afternoon.
Quoting 197. markot:

92 may go north of dr. and into se Bahamas.
The "T-zone" has been commenting that it is headed due north and I'm beginning to think he may be correct. Interesting to see what happens in the next 12 hours!
12z

18z


Trending souther
203. beell
Quoting 200. Llamaluvr:

The "T-zone" has been commenting that it is headed due north and I'm beginning to think he may be correct. Interesting to see what happens in the next 12 hours!


It may be AOA 16.5N, 68.0W
204. beell
Quoting 199. Sfloridacat5:



Storming here at the house in S. Fort Myers in S.W. Florida. Oh, and our local meteorologist said today would be dry during the local morning news. That forecast sure changed this afternoon.



DOOM!
Can someone tell me why the wave south of the Cape Verde island that is clearly has a spin to it is not being talked about???
Quoting 201. MoneyHurricane:




It looks like it's growing, but is it organizing?
GFS bullish on a mid Atlantic wave that seems headed to the Caribbean.
Quoting 204. beell:



DOOM!


The seed has been planted. We'll have to watch it as it moves out into the GOM.
Quoting 205. windshear1993:

Can someone tell me why the wave south of the Cape Verde island that is clearly has a spin to it is not being talked about???


lol its out in the midded of no where right now thats why



92L is closer too home right now
Heads up Caribbean.

I'm very skeptical in this as we have all seen how unfavorable the conditions in the Atlantic have been in reality.
Last visible shot of Hermine is amazing. Looks like half a hurricane. Should be classified at least subtropical soon IMO.
Glad they made that decision on behalf of the rest of us. :-(

Quoting 193. BaltimoreBrian:

Video shows group pushing famous sandstone pedestal at Cape Kiwanda until it falls and breaks





Hurricane Hunters ‏@53d_HHA 3 Std.
Another beautiful sunrise for the crew this morning in #Hermine ☀️✈️🌀 #hurricanehunters 📸: ARWO 1st Lt Froelich

This pic was from mission 19. Mission 20 is now under way:




Blow up of convection west of the center. (Saved loop as the sun will soon set)
Quoting 214. winter123:

Last visible shot of Hermine is amazing. Looks like half a hurricane. Should be classified at least subtropical soon IMO.



Starting to take on the look of a Nor'easter.


Reality will be different.
Newton is looking strong really intensified quickly.
Quoting 218. washingtonian115:

lol



With the mdr so unfavorable with dry sinking air, I don't believe this for one minute.
Quoting 212. unknowncomic:

Heads up Caribbean.




per 93L is the one we need too watch i for one hop 92L dos not take the named IAN and leve it for per 93L
Quoting 212. unknowncomic:

Heads up Caribbean.




per 93L is the one we need too watch i for one hop 92L dos not take the named IAN and leve it for per 93L
I'd watch for 92L to attempt some degree of development if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico this weekend; ECMWF tries to develop it a little, too. An amplifying trough over the Great Lakes favors anything remotely vertically coherent getting drawn northward. This is line with what the National Hurricane Center is saying too (upper-level winds could become more favorable when the system reaches the Yucatan Peninsula).
Quoting 218. washingtonian115:

lol



The GFS wants to fool us again like it did with 99L and 92L 240hr out. Also a strong hurricane going west along 10-12N after mid september is highy doubtful. But we will see.
The first outer rain bands from Newton beginning to come ashore here in San Jose del Cabo... Wahoo, we love our hurricanes here! Thank you Lord Jesus for answering our prayers and sending another storm...
Quoting 221. Bucsboltsfan:



With the mdr so unfavorable with dry sinking air, I don't believe this for one minute.
Exactly.Conditions just haven't been that favorable in the Atlantic.The MJO is "suppose" to return but we've all heard that before.GFS shows a Ivan like track from the wave with it impacting the Caymans on the last frame.I expect in reality we'll see a fast moving sheared mess if anything.
Quoting 223. thetwilightzone:




per 93L is the one we need too watch i for one hop 92L dos not take the named IAN and leve it for per 93L
I was waiting for someone to mention the I name
Seems like the GFS is on crack
Spain swelters as September heatwave continues
The Local (Spain) Published: 05 Sep 2016 11:26 GMT+02:00


Source. Top temperatures in Southern Spain today 45C = 113F. Hi, PlazaRed, any comment? Still alive, I hope!
Re: 18z GFS

A track like that - an anomalously-southward moving hurricane after the middle of September moving through the Caribbean Sea has, to my knowledge, only been duplicated one other time before Ivan; it was with Hurricane Joan in 1988. So odds are it's not gonna happen. That'd certainly be interesting to watch, though!
may i give you your DOOM day storm of the day


your DOOM day storm

235. SLU
Very entertaining run. Enjoy it now because it won't be there next run of course.

236. Ed22
Quoting 201. MoneyHurricane:


I see a rotation southwest of Puerto Rico and it seems like 92L has slowed to me.
Hermine's chilling effect.
it seems like the NHC and the model runs really like per 93L for some reason so may be the GFS will be right after all so we will see if the model runs still show on the next run
Quoting 235. SLU:

Very entertaining run. Enjoy it now because it won't be there next run of course.


And it'll never happen in this new Atlantic.
240. SLU
Quoting 225. CaribBoy:



The GFS wants to fool us again like it did with 99L and 92L 240hr out. Also a strong hurricane going west along 10-12N after mid september is highy doubtful. But we will see.




Hehe
will have too see if the odds for per 93L gos up even more tonight
Quoting 226. bajafontana:

The first outer rain bands from Newton beginning to come ashore here in San Jose del Cabo... �Wahoo, we love our hurricanes here! �Thank you Lord Jesus for answering our prayers and sending another storm...


Somehow I don't think Jesus had anything to do with it. This is about the equivalent of people thanking God for sparing them at the expense of sending it somewhere else.

Nah, dude. You got your hurricane because the steering favored it. Nothing too fancy. ;)
Quoting 235. SLU:

Very entertaining run. Enjoy it now because it won't be there next run of course.



So true yet I hope so wrong haha
Link
Its as if they wrote the article before the storm actually didn't happen

Storm Hermine's damage fueled by global warming, scientists say
The wave that the GFS develops is just east of the Prime Meridian at a very low latitude
Hurricane Newton

VS
Hurricane Odile 2014


If Newton strengthens much more, then it'll be the strongest to make landfall on Baja since Odile.
Quoting 245. Methurricanes:

Its as if they wrote the article before the storm actually didn't happen

Storm Hermine's damage fueled by global warming, scientists say


whats not even go in too global warming we can talk about all the global warming and what not in the off season thats where it needs too stay
Quoting 231. CaribBoy:



Up to nearly 60 mm = 2 inches of rain? That's a very nice harvest from 92L, no?
Congratulations!
holy we cows

recon found this

in newton

Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind

87 knots
(~ 100.1 mph)


now where have i seen this be for lol


Quoting 238. thetwilightzone:

it seems like the NHC and the model runs really like per 93L for some reason so may be the GFS will be right after all so we will see if the model runs still show on the next run

93L is the sacrifical lamb. Euro and GFS have it a weak TS that affects the fish. 94L is the second wave over Africa
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

Re: 18z GFS

A track like that - an anomalously-southward moving hurricane after the middle of September moving through the Caribbean Sea has, to my knowledge, only been duplicated one other time before Ivan; it was with Hurricane Joan in 1988. So odds are it's not gonna happen. That'd certainly be interesting to watch, though!

I'm not sure if this would meet your criteria, but Cuba '32 might also be worth a mention.

Quoting 250. thetwilightzone:

holy we cows

recon found this

in newton

Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind

87 knots
(~ 100.1 mph)


now where have i seen this be for lol





Whoa. This is definitely a hurricane.
GFS ensembles show the 2nd wave which is a + sign. Let's see where they take it
Quoting 252. wunderweatherman123:


93L is the sacrifical lamb. Euro and GFS have it a weak TS that affects the fish. 94L is the second wave over Africa


you cant say fish if it hits land lol
Quoting 250. thetwilightzone:

holy we cows
recon found this
in newton
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind
87 knots
(~ 100.1 mph)
now where have i seen this be for lol


Recon in Newton.
Quoting 257. barbamz:



Recon in Newton.


yep
Quoting 252. wunderweatherman123:


93L is the sacrifical lamb. Euro and GFS have it a weak TS that affects the fish. 94L is the second wave over Africa
GFS does not develop the first wave until much later in the western Atlantic and the 2nd wave is already a strong T.S by then.The Euro develops the first wave eventually into a hurricane,however that run looked suspect to me because it showed a weak T.S busting through a strong ridge which (in reality) is just not going to happen.
Quoting 247. 62901IL:

Hurricane Newton

VS
Hurricane Odile 2014


If Newton strengthens much more, then it'll be the strongest to make landfall on Baja since Odile.


It disturbingly looks to be around the very same size of Odile.
nothing new on the two tonight
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

GFS does not develop the first wave until much later in the western Atlantic and the 2nd wave is already a strong T.S by then.The Euro develops the first wave eventually into a hurricane,however that run looked suspect to me because it showed a weak T.S busting through a strong ridge which (in reality) is just not going to happen.

Both runs are suspect. For all the wishcasters like myself, I need the GFS to keep showing that 2nd wave and have it at least trying to develop. I mean mid september inactive era or not still can spin out majors
Quoting 261. thetwilightzone:

nothing new on the two tonight
model freaks
other earl track storm in too the BOC

Quoting 237. washingaway:

Hermine's chilling effect.

That sounds like a good name for a book or movie.
Quoting 265. thetwilightzone:

other earl track storm in too the BOC



The BOC is where Atlantic storms have had good luck in recent years so I would not be surprised to see 92L spin up into something there.
Quoting 268. HurricaneFan:


The BOC is where Atlantic storms have had good luck in recent years so I would not be surprised to see 92L spin up into something there.



but they end up starting too look good but then they run out of time lol
i see a eye on the rader

Quoting 269. thetwilightzone:




but they end up starting too look good but then they run out of time lol

Yes lol. They intensify as much as they can until landfall, and then they run into Mexico.
#Brian Brettschneider : "Western Atlantic SSTs were the highest on record this summer (ERSST v4)."

Click image to embiggen it.

--- 9 x 273 = 2457... 2 plus 4 plus 5 plus 7 = 18... 1 plus 8 = 9
FXUS64 KHGX 041753
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016

.AVIATION...
Expecting more convective coverage both this afternoon and into
early Labor Day. All of the ingredients are there; increasing
moisture, early day sun warming late morning surface temperatures
into the upper 80s and weak near coastal wind convergence for
better lower level focus for scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorm development. As of the bottom of the noon hour,
fairly quiet on the radar with towering cumulus across the coastal
counties moving inland and scattered showers moving in from the
nearshore Gulf waters. Similar early evening conditions with a
scattering out of low-mid layer clouds, rural MVFR haze/fog
formation as early as late tonight (especially if area receives
late afternoon rain). Labor day morning is forecast to have a
larger areal coverage of primarily showers, transitioning to more
inland clusters of storms during the afternoon. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
The 1200Z sounding at LCH showed a convective temperature of 88 degrees,
and at CRP 86 degrees. This temperature has already been reached
along the coast, resulting in a few showers that are moving
inland. 1200Z soundings support high temperatures between 90 and
92 degrees inland, and in the upper 80s on the coast.

Observational data is already indicating low-level directional and
speed convergence, hugging the coastline. Short term model
guidance from the HRRR and RAP suggests that this convergence zone
will stay anchored to the coast. However, some uncertainty with
regards to this solution as potential outflow boundaries may
result in a propagation of these showers and thunderstorm pushing
more inland into the early afternoon.

Sky grids have been adjusted to match current conditions, otherwise,
the forecast is on track. We will be monitoring trends, if short
term guidance is correct slightly higher POPs may be needed along
the coast for this afternoon. 8/43


ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
As expected somewhat drier air did filter into SE Texas yesterday
and remains in place this morning. Low temperatures should bottom
out in the low/mid 70s this morning but higher moisture just along
the coast will keep temperatures in the upper 70s. Radar shows
showers developing in the offshore waters of the Upper Texas Coast
and this activity should mark the leading edge of higher moisture
in the Gulf.

Upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the west coast
with a ridge developing from the lower Mississippi River valley
through the Great Lakes. Troughing was located over the Mid-
Atlantic associated with post tropical cyclone Hermine. Hermine
should continue to meander off the Atlantic coast the next few
days before moving northeast Wednesday through Friday.

Blended precipitable water product does show more than 2 inches of
PW just off the coast and likely where current shower activity is
developing. Models show this moisture advecting into SE Texas
later today and decided to increase PoPs to 50 percent in the
afternoon with this surge in moisture. Precipitable water values
increase to around 2.2-2.3 inches on Monday and increase PoPs to
60 given model consistency for the last few days. Models still
show upper level ridging building over the lower Mississippi River
valley but the ridge may only restrict thunderstorm coverage from
wide spread to scattered. Even with scattered activity, most of SE
Texas should get meaningful rainfall. Most of the area can expect
0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain but some of these stronger storms could
still produce 1-2 inches of rain in an hour. Isolated 1-3 inch
amounts will be possible and could contribute to minor street
flooding or rapid rises on area bayous. Atmosphere will be more
than capable of high rain rates given CAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and the high moisture content.

After Monday the forecast remains on track with isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water
values linger around 1.9 to 2 inches through the rest of the week
and should support at least a small chance of rain. The upper
level ridge does build Tuesday into Wednesday but then weakens
ever so slightly for the end of the week. Max temperatures should
top out in the low/mid 90s for the end of the week but will
largely depend on coverage of clouds/precip.

In the far extended the ECMWF does bring a cold front into the
area for Saturday while the GFS stalls this front north of the
area. Both models bring a stronger front into the area the
following Tuesday at 228hrs. Upper level pattern seems supportive
of a front with a trough pushing across the Great Lakes. 39


Question: Will the path of this aforementioned cold front have any bearing on whether or not Invest 92L makes landfall in Houston, or in DST?

Question: How many feel an Invest 92L landfall in Houston is the likely outcome?
Quoting 268. HurricaneFan:


The BOC is where Atlantic storms have had good luck in recent years so I would not be surprised to see 92L spin up into something there.


Would you expect a powerful Andrew-like storm from it?
Quoting 265. thetwilightzone:

other earl track storm in too the BOC





But all the forecast models want to send it to TEXAS!
Quoting 275. pureet1948:



Would you expect a powerful Andrew-like storm from it?

No. If it did develop it would probably be a weak to moderate tropical storm.
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

Re: 18z GFS

A track like that - an anomalously-southward moving hurricane after the middle of September moving through the Caribbean Sea has, to my knowledge, only been duplicated one other time before Ivan; it was with Hurricane Joan in 1988. So odds are it's not gonna happen. That'd certainly be interesting to watch, though!
Well Joan did moved into Nicaragua, never pass near Caymans. Meanwhile the GFS is showing a track like Ivan in terms of being near Venezuela and moving into the Caymans. I am hoping more for a middle scenario closer to me but that is just hopeful thinking. A Felix track is the type I like.
newton is now up too 85 mph winds looks like newton is trying too make a major hurricane be for land fall wish i dont see happening but i do see it making run for to a strong cat 2 be for land fall we well see
Quoting 277. HurricaneFan:


No. If it did develop it would probably be a weak to moderate tropical storm.



Would it go into South or SE Texas?
Quoting 280. pureet1948:




Would it go into South or SE Texas?

There is no guarantee that this storm, if it develops, will go into Texas. We don't even have a tropical depression yet. Models remain divergent, and this storm, given it develops, could make landfall anywhere from Lousiana to Mexico. And that is if it even develops - which is more likely to not happen than happen. It is too early to say where this storm/invest will go. I wouldn't get too worried yet if you live in Texas.
Quoting 281. HurricaneFan:


There is no guarantee that this storm, if it develops, will go into Texas. We don't even have a tropical depression yet. Models remain divergent, and this storm, given it develops, could make landfall anywhere from Lousiana to Mexico. And that is if it even develops - which is more likely to not happen than happen. It is too early to say where this storm/invest will go. I wouldn't get too worried yet if you live in Texas.



Good answer. Still, I do worry about the SSTs in the W Gulf. What effect would that have on anything that develops---if it develops at all?
Evidence of 9,000-year-old stone houses found on Australian island
Circular foundations excavated on Rosemary Island date to the end of the last ice age – a time of ‘environmental stress’ for the Indigenous inhabitants
Guardian, Monday 5 September 2016 07.57 BST
Archeologists working on the Dampier archipelago off Australia’s north-west coast have found evidence of stone houses dating back 9,000 years – to the end of the last ice age – building the case for the area to get a world heritage listing. ...
Prof Jo Mcdonald, director of the Centre for Rock Art Research and Management at the University of Western Australia, said the excavations showed occupation was maintained throughout the ice age and the period of rapid sea level rise that followed. ...
The sea level on Australia’s north-west coast rose 130 metres after the end of the ice age, at a rate of about a metre every five to 10 years. “In people’s lifetimes they would have seen loss of territory and would have had to renegotiate – a bit like Miami these days,” McDonald said. ...


Wow to the age of that Australian hut! And wow to the pace of that sea level rise and, hrrm, the comparison to Miami. One meter (more than 3 feet) every five to ten years? --- Watch out then, Miami ;-)
(Okay, he said "a bit" ...)
Quoting 283. pureet1948:




Good answer. Still, I do worry about the SSTs in the W Gulf. What effect would that have on anything that develops---if it develops at all?

The SSTs in the Western GOM are above average and would definitely support intensification if the shear is low and the environment is moist. However, wind shear is hard to forecast, and it's very possible that the shear will be too strong to allow significant intensification. Since the major models currently do not develop this system, I'm leaning towards no development on 92L, but if it were to develop and the conditions were right, intensification could happen in the western GOM if it tracks that way. Models remain very divergent on the track of 92L, though, and it is possible it may never reach the western GOM.
Quoting 283. pureet1948:




Good answer. Still, I do worry about the SSTs in the W Gulf. What effect would that have on anything that develops---if it develops at all?


So what do you think?
How did Gaston organize and become a major hurricane with a wall of Sal in front of it? Why can't other Invest's overcome Sal like Gaston?
Quoting 276. pureet1948:




But all the forecast models want to send it to TEXAS!


This is where you are wrong. A model is NOT a forecast. They are one tool used to develop a forecast.
289. vis0
image host
oops my overlayed text should read ...7 to 10 feet...19 might happen later but not yet.
Quoting 287. scott39:

How did Gaston organize and become a major hurricane with a wall of Sal in front of it? Why can't other Invest's overcome Sal like Gaston?

It's because no one overcomes Sal like Gaston :-P
291. ackee
I noticed the GFS and other models keep hitting mid September to end of September could be active
Quoting 286. Bucsboltsfan:



So what do you think?



Well, if it's waaaaay up over eighty degrees........
293. ackee
Quoting 246. wunderweatherman123:

The wave that the GFS develops is just east of the Prime Meridian at a very low latitude
this is wave GFS track like Ivan
294. vis0

Quoting 16. Doom2pro:

Wow Hermine has three LLCs orbiting around a common center... Very interesting!


Dare i say bowling ball towards the New Jersey side? (Nature is ambidextrous)
AL, 92, 2016090506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 630W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 146N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090600, , BEST, 0, 150N, 685W, 30, 1009, WV

Quoting 291. ackee:

I noticed the GFS and other models keep hitting mid September to end of September could be active
If things go right, Ian and Julia soon.
Quoting 287. scott39:

How did Gaston organize and become a major hurricane with a wall of Sal in front of it? Why can't other Invest's overcome Sal like Gaston?


Because Gaston had Fiona take a good glug of it before he came and he formed in a relatively dust free environment first. The dry air/dust is generally not a big issue for an already organised system. A lot of the time storms form below the SAL before turning northward. They can then readily mix out the dry air and strengthen if other conditions are conducive (SSTs/Wind Shear). When you have a disorganised system, it's much harder for it to mix out the dust/dry air and thus are more suspectible to it.
Quoting 287. scott39:

How did Gaston organize and become a major hurricane with a wall of Sal in front of it? Why can't other Invest's overcome Sal like Gaston?

They never give a convincing explanation, but we can state our hypothesis.
so far 92L Has been great to me here in St.thomas good soaking rains
300. beell
Quoting 295. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 92, 2016090506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 630W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 146N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090600, , BEST, 0, 150N, 685W, 30, 1009, WV




275° @ 18 knots.
Link

Watch 12.5N/45W for possible development
Quoting 295. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 92, 2016090506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 630W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 146N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090600, , BEST, 0, 150N, 685W, 30, 1009, WV



based on the current movement and the weakness in the wind shear i believe 92L is going to move further north by northwest than the spag. models suggest.  92L will feel the weakness of the shear letting off ahead of it to the north, thus bringing this closer to the islands.  i wouldn't even be surprised to see this move past p.r. and then make a hard move north, missing the dr/haiti in the process.  then again, i may be wrong, only time will tell.

one thing is for sure.  the strong shear that was in place ahead of 92L was much stronger yesterday.  people were saying R.I.P 92: expecting the shear to just topple the upward growth in 500 mb..  now things have changed and i expect a slight increase in the %age to develop in noaa reports by tomorrow.
With the GFS and ECMWF solidified on a longwave trough amplifying eastward over the northern tier of the US, the window for 92L to move northward in the Gulf is extant. The ECMWF is slower with the trough, while the GFS is, as usual, faster and stronger with it. I'd probably favor the ECMWF because of the way the longwave pattern over the US has behaved this summer, with the continued presence of a strong eastern ridge.


what a ugly face
Just looking at the analogs for this year via Levi's site to see what we could expect for the rest of the season. These are the totals for September onwards for these years:

1954: 10-5-2
1959: 6-4-2
1981: 8-6-3
1998: 10-8-2
2000: 11-6-2

Average: 9-6-2

That'd bring us to 17-10-3. Of course this is its own year, but certainly looks like we'll be in for at least an average/slightly above average season.
306. beell
Quoting 215. HaoleboySurfEC:

Glad they made that decision on behalf of the rest of us. :-(




I would like to push their house over.
Quoting 306. beell:



I would like to push their house over.


I wanna watch!
Quoting 295. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 92, 2016090506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 630W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 146N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 670W, 35, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090600, , BEST, 0, 150N, 685W, 30, 1009, WV




Invest-caster
Quoting 305. Envoirment:

Just looking at the analogs for this year via Levi's site to see what we could expect for the rest of the season. These are the totals for September onwards for these years:

1954: 10-5-2
1959: 6-4-2
1981: 8-6-3
1998: 10-8-2
2000: 11-6-2

Average: 9-6-2

That'd bring us to 17-10-3. Of course this is its own year, but certainly looks like we'll be in for at least an average/slightly above average season.


I made a prediction for a 15 storm season like two months ago. I'm still not seeing a reason to change anything at this point.
Quoting 240. SLU:





Hehe


Oops
Quoting 308. Grothar:



Invest-caster


blob caster
Quoting 305. Envoirment:

Just looking at the analogs for this year via Levi's site to see what we could expect for the rest of the season. These are the totals for September onwards for these years:

1954: 10-5-2
1959: 6-4-2
1981: 8-6-3
1998: 10-8-2
2000: 11-6-2

Average: 9-6-2

That'd bring us to 17-10-3. Of course this is its own year, but certainly looks like we'll be in for at least an average/slightly above average season.

Agree. It is still way too early to say "the active period is over" or "the AMO has turned negative" in my opinion. If you look at Atlantic SSTs in both the MDR and north Atlantic they are well above average. Aside from ACE, which we have been near average so far, we're above average in pretty much everything else in the Atlantic.
Quoting 312. HurricaneFan:


Agree. It is still way too early to say "the active period is over" or "the AMO has turned negative" in my opinion. If you look at Atlantic SSTs in both the MDR and north Atlantic they are well above average. Aside from ACE, which we have been near average so far, we're above average in pretty much everything else in the Atlantic.


Instability has been terribly low for the last several years, which is more in line with what a negative AMO is supposed to do. I'm inclined to go with that as the culprit.
Quoting 287. scott39:

How did Gaston organize and become a major hurricane with a wall of Sal in front of it? Why can't other Invest's overcome Sal like Gaston?


Because Gaston didn't become a major hurricane when there was SAL around. It was embedded in the divergent region of an upper-level trough, over 28C SSTs, and in an environment of low shear. Completely different.
315. vis0
Quoting 122. James1981cane:



iT IS NOT MOVING DUE NORTH IF YOU LOOK CORRECTLY !!!
Quoting 123. thetwilightzone:




YOU DONT NEED TOO YELL ABOUT IT AND YES IT IS MOVING DUE N
YER WRITE TWI CROSSED MY i'S POINTED SCREEN TOWARDS MIRROR READ OFF BROKEN MIRROR AND
THEN TURNED OFF LIGHTS SURE ESNUFF ITS MOVING NORTH OF WEST...some call it a jog

i kid kause TWI is my Siamese twin, LET GO OF THE MOUSE TWI!!!

you can uncover your eyes TWI i stopped yelling.

.  i think even the fish re throwing up under 2016 post TS now HERMINE MONSTER (HA! got to use that tag finally, if HERMINE leaves/dissipates on the 13th at 13:13 through 1313 Mocking bird Lane in Ct. or Long Island that would be spoooky,     i hear washi15 is dressing up like Hermine for Halloween and endlessly hanging around local parties).

Back to OBSERVING the soap opera that is as the "vortices" churn / turn.


Shear is moving in tandem with 92L for now!
NHC track too far left over the Gulf, imo. I'd probably have it emerging near Merida, then drifting along to the NW or NNW.
Quoting 301. stormpetrol:

Link

Watch 12.5N/45W for possible development
Been watching that area all day
Quoting 303. KoritheMan:

With the GFS and ECMWF solidified on a longwave trough amplifying eastward over the northern tier of the US, the window for 92L to move northward in the Gulf is extant. The ECMWF is slower with the trough, while the GFS is, as usual, faster and stronger with it. I'd probably favor the ECMWF because of the way the longwave pattern over the US has behaved this summer, with the continued presence of a strong eastern ridge.


Where is the ECMWF have 92L making landfall?
Quoting 319. pureet1948:



Where is the ECMWF have 92L making landfall?


On this run, eastern Mexico. But I was talking about the slower progression of the trough over the north US. I feel like the GFS is probably wrong, deepening the trough too fast and moving it too quickly.
On a sad note, a 31yr old man in the southern municipality of Guayanilla, Puerto Rico was reported death today. According to the press release, strong gusts from the tropical wave passing to the south of the island knock down a tree that fall over the man. More details can be obtained in endi.com right now.
What a season! We are not bored with no verbatim about a real storm. Last three years have not been so. It was, how soon till the ECaribbean shears away all hope. Now it's, "I hope multiple majors don't cause historic damage." And we've only just begun peak!
Quoting 319. pureet1948:



Where is the ECMWF have 92L making landfall?


over Grothar house
"Laboring" .... I see what you did there....

We had 'pesky' heat and humidity here today.... whether still or moving one couldn't help but break a sweat. It's still 84 at 10 p.m. Whew!
The tropics are still on a funk (except for the gulf) waves barely surviving instead of intensifying this time of year...
The blog is incredibly slow.
it looks like 92L wants too move right over Hispaniola tonight and off too the other side

They will be shutting the power down here in Los Cabos due to Hurricane Newtow @ 10:00 pm MST.  No telling how long comms will be down.  Going dark.  Thank God for this storm!!
We are in a set up to see one or multiple CV's major and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf or East Coast. We were lucky ol' 99L went along and didn't major on us. The season is a long way from over and it's dodge a hurricane moving forward. May we on the Continental and Hawaii be fortunate this year.
Kori, this is your year. No doubt about it. A hurricane is coming for you to endure and record. A 50/50 chance, maybe 75/25; that a major will affect the Gulf coast. TWC is waiting for your video in a place of peril. Grothar survived the first major in history in a dingy made of wood; you'll be fine!
Quoting 326. CaribBoy:

The blog is incredibly slow.

yesturday was probably the slowest ever.... averaging 2 comments every 10 minutes..
332. vis0

Quoting 274. pureet1948:

FXUS64 KHGX 041753
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016

.AVIATION...
Expecting more convective coverage both this afternoon and into
early Labor Day. All of the ingredients are there; increasing
moisture, early day sun warming late morning surface temperatures
into the upper 80s and weak near coastal wind convergence for
better lower level focus for scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorm development. As of the bottom of the noon hour,
fairly quiet on the radar with towering cumulus across the coastal
counties moving inland and scattered showers moving in from the
nearshore Gulf waters. ...READ REST IN ORG COMMENT {auto scrolls to cmmnt} ... low/mid 90s for the end of the week but will
largely depend on coverage of clouds/precip.

In the far extended the ECMWF does bring a cold front into the
area for Saturday while the GFS stalls this front north of the
area. Both models bring a stronger front into the area the
following Tuesday at 228hrs. Upper level pattern seems supportive
of a front with a trough pushing across the Great Lakes. 39


Question: Will the path of this aforementioned cold front have any bearing on whether or not Invest 92L makes landfall in Houston, or in DST?

Question: How many feel an Invest 92L landfall in Houston is the likely outcome?
vis0:: i say as it builds it will start towards Mex/Tex but straddle across coastline towards La.,.Miss. Bama  in at sar2401s area (68% feel...if you want better than EURO model numbers hire NCstorms ants they PINPOINTED the center of HERMINE over them a week before, GROTHAR give those ants a cookie)
Is this the "center" of Hermine... about due east of Atlantic City and almost moving south? If so, it's further west than forecast, and if it should head south, into a bit warmer water...? Any opinions on this?

Link

Jo
Dry air turned the tap off over the Cape; cut Hermine right in half.

Quoting 315. vis0:

Quoting 122. James1981cane:



iT IS NOT MOVING DUE NORTH IF YOU LOOK CORRECTLY !!!
YER WRITE TWI CROSSED MY i'S POINTED SCREEN TOWARDS MIRROR READ OFF BROKEN MIRROR AND
THEN TURNED OFF LIGHTS SURE ESNUFF ITS MOVING NORTH OF WEST...some call it a jog

i kid kause TWI is my Siamese twin, LET GO OF THE MOUSE TWI!!!

you can uncover your eyes TWI i stopped yelling.

.  i think even the fish re throwing up under 2016 post TS now HERMINE MONSTER (HA! got to use that tag finally, if HERMINE leaves/dissipates on the 13th at 13:13 through 1313 Mocking bird Lane in Ct. or Long Island that would be spoooky,     i hear washi15 is dressing up like Hermine for Halloween and endlessly hanging around local parties).

Back to OBSERVING the soap opera that is as the "vortices" churn / turn.



It is not moving due north you must be on drugs look at it correctly
337. SLU
Quoting 334. Grothar:




now that is not looking good model are starting too bend for the big bend area of FL so could that area be hit by round 3?
Quoting 334. Grothar:




the model say heading for the gulf but the NHC says its heading for MX so oh is going to be right the model runs or the NHC
341. vis0

Quoting 306. beell:



I would like to push their house over.
If i where in a court i'd luv this SENTENCING:: to clue each piece as deemed by laser readout, hold in place till dry and if anyone of that group releases the drying portions before the required 3 hours drying time that person has to do 5 Olympic laps.  After the stones are all joined together EXACTLY as they originally where, TWI, daddyjames and Bell come in and push the stone the group just joined onto the floor so it breaks.     Of course its not the one the group just glued its a replica but just so they get that quick feel of being Nature in creating a natural wonder and seeing it destroyed. 
SADLY we need to use those mold injection machines to create facsimiles of other "small" natural wonders so at least if the real ones are damaged (even naturally) the replica / facsimile can take the place of the original.
nevermind.    

Quoting 337. SLU:




the black hole of doom

344. thetwilightzone
10:32 PM CDT on September 05, 2016

This blog has really gone down since Dr. Masters sold it. 😒

Hurricane Newton approaching Cabo San Lucas, which is currently reporting NNE wind at 46 mph, gusts to 60 with rain showers, barometer at 973 mb and tanking.
Quoting 304. stormpetrol:



what a ugly face


It's a majestic, beautiful owl.. they know. Minerva
How Ole Miss blew that, I'll never know.
Quoting 345. ajcamsmom2:


344. thetwilightzone
10:32 PM CDT on September 05, 2016

This blog has really gone down since Dr. Masters sold it. 😒


Yes it has.
Quoting 341. vis0:


If i where in a court i'd luv this SENTENCING:: to clue each piece as deemed by laser readout, hold in place till dry and if anyone of that group releases the drying portions before the required 3 hours drying time that person has to do 5 Olympic laps.  After the stones are all joined together EXACTLY as they originally where, TWI, daddyjames and Bell come in and push the stone the group just joined onto the floor so it breaks.     Of course its not the one the group just glued its a replica but just so they get that quick feel of being Nature in creating a natural wonder and seeing it destroyed. 
SADLY we need to use those mold injection machines to create facsimiles of other "small" natural wonders so at least if the real ones are damaged (even naturally) the replica / facsimile can take the place of the original.



I replied to you in my blog entry
Quoting 329. DeepSeaRising:

We are in a set up to see one or multiple CV's major and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf or East Coast. We were lucky ol' 99L went along and didn't major on us. The season is a long way from over and it's dodge a hurricane moving forward. May we on the Continental and Hawaii be fortunate this year.


The gulf especially seems vulnerable with these low, westward tracks

Quoting 335. SPShaw:

Dry air turned the tap off over the Cape; cut Hermine right in half.




Brutal
Quoting 345. ajcamsmom2:


344. thetwilightzone
10:32 PM CDT on September 05, 2016

This blog has really gone down since Dr. Masters sold it. 😒


agreed
Quoting 348. GatorWX:



It's a majestic, beautiful owl.. they know. Minerva
I see an Octopus. Been there for a while, in its garden.
Quoting 354. Barefootontherocks:

I see an Octopus. Been there for a while, in its garden.


Owl! ;)
I wonder if Hermine will interfere with CHristmas travel plans
Quoting 339. thetwilightzone:



now that is not looking good model are starting too bend for the big bend area of FL so could that area be hit by round 3?


Yes
The Northeast Cape Fear is very near flood stage in the wake of the rains brought by Hermine. Thankfully rain is not in the forecast until this weekend, but watch out for snakes and gators and the like.



Quoting 354. Barefootontherocks:

I see an Octopus. Been there for a while, in its garden.


That song is better than most of the granny church choir junk Paul made
Just in time for peak season.
More bullish than last run.
Quoting 356. Grothar:

I wonder if Hermine will interfere with CHristmas travel plans


Not if you are orthodox - that would be January

:>)

Quoting 357. Grothar:



Yes
Please no, I just got my power back on and read this. What do I need to keep an eye on? TIA.
Quoting 334. Grothar:



How many times have you watched models like these keep shifting westward, always curving to the northwest, but never making the commitment until everything is right. The secret is to find what makes everything right.

cheerio old buddy - going to let the thunder outside lull me to sleep. - later
Quoting 316. stormpetrol:



Shear is moving in tandem with 92L for now!


Anticyclone over 92L
It is almost midnight and it is still 73 degrees here in Sioux Falls. Had a good time in Minniapolis at the state fair. I highly recommend it. No only can you give yourself instant diabetes, you can give give your liver a workout too.

The weather was perfect. Just perfect.

Don't worry about us suffering with the heat, we should see lows in the 40's and highs in the 60's by next week.

Cheers
Qazulight (Also visited the 45 parallel distillery in Wisconsin. I learned the difference between blended whiskey and straight whiskey.)
Quoting 347. BayFog:


Hurricane Newton approaching Cabo San Lucas, which is currently reporting NNE wind at 46 mph, gusts to 60 with rain showers, barometer at 973 mb and tanking.


Thanks for posting this. I'm in Arizona, wondering what Newton will bring us.
367. ackee
Wow GFS showing two waves coming of Africa this Sunday interesting long track system we see but another hint activities pick up starting this weekend into next
368. ackee
Both the GFS and cmc showing active pick up it seems this not the same time frame both showing wave low latitude developing interesting week
GFS new run

Not to worry.... many hours ahead... over 90 hrs...



If your still here Taz, after checking the wind maps, there appears to be a LLC between the Caribbean Islands and Africa at about 15N. Checked all satellite views and saw no spin. Take a look? Thanks

Quoting 327. thetwilightzone:

it looks like 92L wants too move right over Hispaniola tonight and off too the other side


Quoting 323. thetwilightzone:



over Grothar house


Put an (s) after the name Grothar.
I've been a lurker on this site since 2005. Living on the MS Gulf Coast, I find it a necessity. For the most part, you guys seem knowledgable and I have learned a great deal through quiet observation. With a master's degree in history, I'm no match to many of you where understanding the nuances of storm prediction goes. My experiences are only real life, from an 8 year old when Camille hit to Katrina in 2005, and every one in between. Just wanted to say thanks. I love learning from many of you and laughing at others. I've always been fascinated with tropical systems. Cheers guys and keep up the good work!
Quoting 372. HurriHistory:



Put an (s) after the name Grothar.


Lost Cause
Ped - How are your temps... Upper 40s and night and lower 60s still during the day... Days are getting noticeably shorter too...

Large eye just cleared out in Newton, just as the northern eyewall is about to come onshore at Cabo San Lucas, where the barometer is down to 970 mb.
Quoting 375. Dakster:

Ped - How are your temps... Upper 40s and night and lower 60s still during the day... Days are getting noticeably shorter too...


Barely 80F last 3 days, back to the 90's tomorrow and my water cooler is down for maintenance.
Good to see you on here Dakster. Past my bedtime....
Of possible passing interest is that the temps yesterday in southern Spain around Cordoba were over 45/C which is 113/F.
Climate change was mentioned as a possible cause of these record temps.

Looks like quite a lot of rain may come from Newton later this week over the southern US states?
To me- it appears Newton may make landfall faster than forecasted.
Praise God, we are relieved to be out of the clutches of 92L...quite a strong system inspite of its non-classification/ designation as a named system...
Thankfully, things did not worsen as the low level center got nearer our island although to be fair it seemed like the most intense convection passed more to our south nearer Martinique.
Mostly cosmetic/ & very minimal damages overall -mainly to agriculture and foliage. That allows everyone to be much less anxious knowing we are at the peak of the season & on the heels of last year's significant impacts from Erika we are very conscious of our current vulnerabilities.
As the 'tail' (outer bands/ outflow) of 92L passed through -Only the odd shower lingered on Monday, however, schools were closed as a precaution, & I'm sure thousands of students were 'delighted'.
Nevertheless, despite the shear forecast etc. 92L 'lives & continues to mystify' (as with Pre-Earl & Hermine) -beware to those in its future path...very hardy/ robust tropical system lows...

May God continue to Richly Bless us All!

Thunderstorms in the entire ring along with no frontal issues and a perfectly circular circulation. I would make it subtropical by now. The ridge is transitioning west too, so it is undergoing tropical transition, ANOTHER sign it's subtropical.
Quoting 383. NunoLava1998:


Thunderstorms in the entire ring along with no frontal issues and a perfectly circular circulation. I would make it subtropical by now. The ridge is transitioning west too, so it is undergoing tropical transition, ANOTHER sign it's subtropical.

New: A new convection burst has started and a extremely small LLC has formed in the center, just east of the upper level front. That only means one thing:
tropical transition
Impressive. Observation in Cabo is reporting sustained winds to 79mph and gusts to 108!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid =CSLB7
CABO SAN LUCAS, BCS. CSLB7 (HADS)
Elev: 735 ft; Latitude: 22.88111; Longitude: -109.92667

Current time: Tue, 06 Sep 2:32 am MDT
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 06 Sep 2:10 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Station Precip Precip
Point Humidity Direction Speed Pressure 10 min 1 hour
(MDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (mb) (inches) (inches)
06 Sep 2:10 am 74 74 100 NE 79G105 955.70 0.00
06 Sep 2:00 am 74 74 100 NE 76G108 957.30 0.00
06 Sep 1:50 am 74 74 100 NE 78G101 959.00 0.00
And this must certainly be the "center" of what's left of Hermine (which isn't that much, with the fastest winds I could find on null school being about 40 mph). You can see how barren it is on the Upton radar, but there's enough convection to see it at least....
Link
It's about 110 miles east of Atlantic City, barely moving west at all, and perhaps looking to drift a bit south (which is what only the HWRF predicted, yesterday).

It's already a bit closer to Long Island and New Jersey than forecast, but is so weak right now it might not make any difference, anyway (and hopefully).

Jo
@iCyclone on Twitter: "2:35 am. Howling, whislting, rumbling. 986 mb. Falling faster. #Hurricane #NEWTON"

Quoting 386. flibinite:

And this must certainly be the "center" of what's left of Hermine (which isn't that much, with the fastest winds I could find on null school being about 40 mph). You can see how barren it is on the Mt. Holly long-range radar, but there's enough convection to see it at least....
Link
It's about 110 miles east of Atlantic City, barely moving west at all, and perhaps looking to drift a bit south (which is what only the HWRF predicted, yesterday).

It's already a bit closer to Long Island and New Jersey than forecast, but is so weak right now it might not make any difference, anyway (and hopefully).

Jo

The satellite images show many signs of Hermine being atleast subtropical.
Quoting 385. DJDroppin:

Impressive. Observation in Cabo is reporting sustained winds to 79mph and gusts to 108!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid =CSLB7
CABO SAN LUCAS, BCS. CSLB7 (HADS)
Elev: 735 ft; Latitude: 22.88111; Longitude: -109.92667

Current time: Tue, 06 Sep 2:32 am MDT
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 06 Sep 2:10 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Station Precip Precip
Point Humidity Direction Speed Pressure 10 min 1 hour
(MDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (mb) (inches) (inches)
06 Sep 2:10 am 74 74 100 NE 79G105 955.70 0.00
06 Sep 2:00 am 74 74 100 NE 76G108 957.30 0.00
06 Sep 1:50 am 74 74 100 NE 78G101 959.00 0.00


"955"












what
Quoting 389. NunoLava1998:


"955"


what


Yeah, not sure 955mb can be verified. I'm doubting it.
Making landfall now, which is good because note the deeper convection now wrapping around the northwest COC almost forming a perfect eyewall and certainly more intense. If landfall were a few more hours we could have seen a major hurricane.


Quoting 382. NatureIsle:

Praise God, we are relieved to be out of the clutches of 92L...quite a strong system inspite of its non-classification/ designation as a named system...
Thankfully, things did not worsen as the low level center got nearer our island although to be fair it seemed like the most intense convection passed more to our south nearer Martinique.
Mostly cosmetic/ & very minimal damages overall -mainly to agriculture and foliage. That allows everyone to be much less anxious knowing we are at the peak of the season & on the heels of last year's significant impacts from Erika we are very conscious of our current vulnerabilities.
As the 'tail' (outer bands/ outflow) of 92L passed through -Only the odd shower lingered on Monday, however, schools were closed as a precaution, & I'm sure thousands of students were 'delighted'.
Nevertheless, despite the shear forecast etc. 92L 'lives & continues to mystify' (as with Pre-Earl & Hermine) -beware to those in its future path...very hardy/ robust tropical system lows...

May God continue to Richly Bless us All!


Did they close schools there yesterday?
Quoting 386. flibinite:

And this must certainly be the "center" of what's left of Hermine (which isn't that much, with the fastest winds I could find on null school being about 40 mph). You can see how barren it is on the Upton radar, but there's enough convection to see it at least....
Link
It's about 110 miles east of Atlantic City, barely moving west at all, and perhaps looking to drift a bit south (which is what only the HWRF predicted, yesterday).

It's already a bit closer to Long Island and New Jersey than forecast, but is so weak right now it might not make any difference, anyway (and hopefully).

Jo
Yes, on the Jersey Shore, the official forecast calls for showers today and tomorrow. We never had any tropical storm conditions while we were under the warning. Now that the warning has been dropped, P.T. Hermine is making her closest approach, and we are supposed to get weather. P.T. Hermine is the biggest tropical dud I can ever recall, and it ruined Labor Day weekend completely without reason.
Quoting 331. Josihua2:


yesturday was probably the slowest ever.... averaging 2 comments every 10 minutes..
Wonder how many FL bloggers are still off line due to power supply loss...
Quoting 366. guaguapichincha:



Thanks for posting this. I'm in Arizona, wondering what Newton will bring us.
Looking like some heavy rains for you.
Quoting 372. HurriHistory:



Put an (s) after the name Grothar.
['s], not [s]. Correct correctly.
Little update on current European weather, if I may. While wild fires are burning in southern France and especially in the current heat of southern Spain (probably due to arson: Police hunt for Costa Blanca fire starters) there is a cut off low forming in the central Mediterranean. It's reflected in an enhanced "cyclone formation probability", shown in the map below in the upper left corner. Quite a long time since we last have watched a sort of "medicane". Although it doesn't look like a real full fletched subtropical cyclone is forming, there is the threat of severe weather for some folks down there, regardless.


Cyclone formation probability.


Current IR satellite (saved). Source.


Current low pressure in the Med, while high pressure over Germany and adjacent countries will continue our long lasting late summer weather (source for updates).

From current "Estofex" warning:

SYNOPSIS
A cut-off low makes its way from Central Europe towards Central Mediterranean basin during Tuesday, while a ridge is forming in West Europe. This low pressure system attains high vorticity values, with a jet streak at its western flank over Italy where scattered but strong thunderstorms are forecast. Very moist and unstable air masses will be advected towards Greece where excessive rainfall events are expected to be numerous.

Have a nice day. Best wishes for those in the path of Newton!
partial ASCAT is showing a weak low embedded in tropical wave near 45W
this morning story is cabo again and how bad it will be.
Quoting 396. Gearsts:



Weaker this run but way stronger with 3rd wave.
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...

.HERMINE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY.

ANZ450>455-062330-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...6 TO 9 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATER TODAY AS HERMINE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO US.
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS.

&&

$$
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>08 1-176>179-061915-

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY AL092016
706 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT

**HERMINE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW
HAVEN...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...NORTHWESTERN
SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY NY OR ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT NY
- 39.6N 71.6W
- STORM INTENSITY 65 MPH
- MOVEMENT WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH.
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND
HERMINE WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION ACROSS
LOW-LYING AREAS OF LONG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS MOST
VULNERABLE TO STORM SURGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN SURGE EVENT ARE NOW UNFOLDING ACROSS
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS OF LONG ISLAND. IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
BATTERING SURF CAPABLE OF CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DUNE EROSION AND
OVERWASHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DANGEROUSLY
ROUGH SURF...AND A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

* WIND:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE NOW UNFOLDING ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT
IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE
TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS
EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE
HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT
OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES.
- SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER
NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL
FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
STAY TUNED TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
LISTEN FOR UPDATES AND BE READY IN CASE YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER.
LOCATE YOUR BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND FLASHLIGHT FROM YOUR EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES KIT. KEEP THESE ITEMS CLOSE.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY AROUND NOON EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$
Quoting 397. LargoFl:



That 0/40 AOI looks likely to be our next named storm as EURO develops it in only 96 hours. However it looks likely to be a fish storm similar to Fiona.
Grateful here in Southeast NC this morning. We have had much worse than Hermine and prayers for those still in her path. Hopefully she will turn NE and be gone, gone, gone....
Despite the more pessimistic 6z run of the GFS, the 2nd wave still has more ensemble support then the 3rd one
after the last cabo hurricane i thought that was a rare event. now im not so sure seeing Newton. rainfall reported in arizona last night due to newton
you can really tell we had heavy rainfall a week ago here in e cen fl.. everytime go outside am getting chewed on. the mosquitos wait by the door and cling to the clothing and try to get a ride in the dwelling. they like to do their dirty business while your sleeping.
Quoting 408. islander101010:

you can really tell we had heavy rainfall a week ago here in e cen fl.. everytime go outside am getting chewed on. the mosquitos wait by the door and cling to the clothing and try to get a ride in the dwelling. they like to do their dirty business while your sleeping.
yes they ae going to be terrible the coming weeks,around my area still many many pools of water..hotels for the mosquitos
looks like the NHC is getting ready too pull the plug on 92L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the New England coast of the United
States.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development
of this system is unlikely as the wave moves across the Caribbean
Sea this week. Periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
could occur over Hispaniola today and over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
on Wednesday in association with this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. A low pressure area
is expected to form in association with the wave several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system after that time while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent



how ever the next wave is up too 10/60 we could see 93L soon
Hermine moved much further west than the models indicated. Had it been a stronger system, it would have been a mess.

406. Grothar
6:34 AM CDT on September 06, 2016

Let's just hope none of those tracks pan out and 92L goes to the boneyard
Quoting 414. ajcamsmom2:

406. Grothar
6:34 AM CDT on September 06, 2016

Let's just hope none of those tracks pan out and 92L goes to the boneyard


not too worry from the new tropicl weather outlook the NHC is about ready too pull the plug on 92L
Newton



Link
Hermine was all positive here in central SC. We had no rain for 2 weeks before her and none forecasted for 10 days after her. Would be bone dry here. Winds barely topped 40 with gusts close to 50 and 6-8" of rain.

Not trying to marginalize those more seriously affected.

Quoting 403. K8eCane:

Grateful here in Southeast NC this morning. We have had much worse than Hermine and prayers for those still in her path. Hopefully she will turn NE and be gone, gone, gone....
And still moving west toward the NJ shore. My buddy says the swell is more out of the N now instead of ENE. Less surge but waves are still big. Conditions stormy on the ocean. I suspect Monmouth and Ocean county weather will deteriorate as the day progresses.

I will also deteriorate as the day progresses.

Quoting 412. Grothar:

Hermine moved much further west than the models indicated. Had it been a stronger system, it would have been a mess.


Al Roker just said today is day 20 for the life of Hermine.
Quoting 418. HaoleboySurfEC:

And still moving west toward the NJ shore. My buddy says the swell is more out of the N now instead of ENE. Less surge but waves are still big. Conditions stormy on the ocean. I suspect Monmouth and Ocean county weather will deteriorate as the day progresses.

I will also deteriorate as the day progresses.




LOL! Truer words have never been spoken.....(especially at Gro's age)
wave at 44 W looks insignificant, but these are the areas that spring surprises
422. MahFL
It was a cool 67F here in Orange Park, the NWS had forecast a low of 71F.
Apologies if this is posted in the wrong place. For the last month or so, I'm unable to access the satellite views for the West African Coast, either visible or infrared. Nothing happens when I click on them, and the "Animate" button changes to a lighter color (it doesn't do anything if I click it, either). Is it just my computer? It was working fine previously.
Are the GFS model still predicting that low riding disturbance in the mdr to develop in the Coming days?
Morning all. Hope everyone had a good, safe holiday weekend!

I kind of just noticed tropical storm warnings are still in place. Is this a new policy? I remember after Sandy, there was some backlash for discontinuing ts warnings/hurricane warnings for the ecoast before the system hit.

Aside from that, a 'cool'? start to the day. 74 F when I awoke, as opposed to the usual 78-80. Drier air mass in place should keep precip across the region minimal. Had a brief downpour last night, but most of the energy stayed east of Englewood. Didn't affect my smoker and we ate our spare ribs as scheduled. Love me some good ribs!

Quoting 423. nolawombat:

Apologies if this is posted in the wrong place. For the last month or so, I'm unable to access the satellite views for the West African Coast, either visible or infrared. Nothing happens when I click on them, and the "Animate" button changes to a lighter color (it doesn't do anything if I click it, either). Is it just my computer? It was working fine previously.

Sounds like a "Program" problem. Have you added any new programs
to your computer, and or have you updated your computer????
If you have then you might need to go back to a previous time and date
then do the update from there....
That should work....

Taco :o)
Quoting 423. nolawombat:

Apologies if this is posted in the wrong place. For the last month or so, I'm unable to access the satellite views for the West African Coast, either visible or infrared. Nothing happens when I click on them, and the "Animate" button changes to a lighter color (it doesn't do anything if I click it, either). Is it just my computer? It was working fine previously.

Try clearing your cache and cookies.
Quoting 425. GatorWX:

Morning all. Hope everyone had a good, safe holiday weekend!

I kind of just noticed tropical storm warnings are still in place. Is this a new policy? I remember after Sandy, there was some backlash for discontinuing ts warnings/hurricane warnings for the ecoast before the system hit.

Aside from that, a 'cool'? start to the day. 74 F when I awoke, as opposed to the usual 78-80. Drier air mass in place should keep precip across the region minimal. Had a brief downpour last night, but most of the energy stayed east of Englewood. Didn't affect my smoker and we ate our spare ribs as scheduled. Love me some good ribs!




I believe so, if tropical storm/hurricane conditions are expected despite the storm technically not being one, they'll issue the warning. I want to say there was a blog entry about it and yes I'm sure Sandy had much to do with the decision.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 12h
The longest wait. #ianwatch2016

Ha ha he's still waiting on his name.Let's hope it's worth the wait....models have been trending weaker on the waves in recent runs.......
Hello? Is this thing on?
Quoting 431. Icantthinkofausernam:

Hello? Is this thing on?


Yes, it's on. :D
Quoting 430. washingtonian115:

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 12h
The longest wait. #ianwatch2016

Ha ha he's still waiting on his name.Let's hope it's worth the wait....models have been trending weaker on the waves in recent runs.......

6z really likes 3rd wave the most. Maybe in the 12z, it will like the 2nd wave
Quoting 424. bupsin101:

Are the GFS model still predicting that low riding disturbance in the mdr to develop in the Coming days?


Nope... lol... as expected
The wave train is still very much alive.

Ivan, Ike, Isabel; Irene, Igor, Isaac

I names are pretty notorius....we will see what IAN can do. Hopefully nothing except be pretty for us.
Quoting 435. fmbill:

The wave train is still very much alive.





Over Africa yes! but it has not been bearing fruit in the atlantic..
Quoting 436. K8eCane:

Ivan, Ike, Isabel; Irene

I names are pretty notorius....we will see what IAN can do. Hopefully nothing except be pretty for us.


You 4got Igor!



Last 7 days animation: Link
Quoting 438. java162:



You 4got Igor!



Fixed!!
4"-6" of rain across some areas of S.W. Florida yesterday evening
Quoting 385. DJDroppin:

Impressive. Observation in Cabo is reporting sustained winds to 79mph and gusts to 108!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid =CSLB7
CABO SAN LUCAS, BCS. CSLB7 (HADS)
Elev: 735 ft; Latitude: 22.88111; Longitude: -109.92667

Current time: Tue, 06 Sep 2:32 am MDT
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 06 Sep 2:10 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Station Precip Precip
Point Humidity Direction Speed Pressure 10 min 1 hour
(MDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (mb) (inches) (inches)
06 Sep 2:10 am 74 74 100 NE 79G105 955.70 0.00
06 Sep 2:00 am 74 74 100 NE 76G108 957.30 0.00
06 Sep 1:50 am 74 74 100 NE 78G101 959.00 0.00

This is the station located nearest the actual geographic cape. I suspected something wasn't right about the pressure reading last night and almost posted my reservation, but decided not to as the storm seemed to be developing rapidly and so it might have been plausible. It may yet turn out to be, but it needs to be mentioned that the NHC has the central pressure of the storm at 979 MB while this station is currently reporting 972 MB. The lowest pressure was recorded at 2:40 AM --- 953.6 MB. The highest sustained wind was 79, with a gust to 108. My surmise is that the station is reporting the correct reading from its barometer, but UNcorrected for sea level. The station is located 735 feet up atop the bluff that overlooks the southernmost point of Baja.

Newton at dawn, eye mostly over the water off the west coast of Baja, moving in the same direction as the orientation of the coast for now, but forecast to turn and cross the peninsula sometime today.
Bring on the cooler temps. I'm really tired of this relentless heat and humidity in the southeast. It just doesn't cool down anymore at night.
Streaming cam well to the SE of Newton:
Link

Cam Location:
Looks like we may see a similar scenario soon with what we saw with Fiona/Gaston/Hermine. Ian will likely come from the first wave and be a sacrificial storm for the other two waves.
6z GFS and 00z Euro.

Well.... they will change again.

If we want some weather in the Lesser Antilles, something must get past 55W before it starts developing.

Any development further east may go OTS and leave us dry.

Big question mark this morning : when will the rain come again ?
Quoting 429. hydrus:


That drier air feels so nice, especially with the breeze.
They don't think 92L should be ignored yet.
Appears I'm under a flood watch.

Eh, I shouldn't have to worry about floodwaters where I am although some streams and dips in terrain could flood onto some of the roads.

Quoting 438. java162:



You 4got Igor!

And Isaac
Quoting 452. hurrikanehunter14:


And Isaac



Fixed!!
Quoting 444. frank727:

Bring on the cooler temps. I'm really tired of this relentless heat and humidity in the southeast. It just doesn't cool down anymore at night.


I'll Second That!!!!!
Quoting 444. frank727:

Bring on the cooler temps. I'm really tired of this relentless heat and humidity in the southeast. It just doesn't cool down anymore at night.


And that is why I left South Florida... It was affecting my health in a very negative way.
Quoting 425. GatorWX:

Morning all. Hope everyone had a good, safe holiday weekend!

I kind of just noticed tropical storm warnings are still in place. Is this a new policy? I remember after Sandy, there was some backlash for discontinuing ts warnings/hurricane warnings for the ecoast before the system hit.

Aside from that, a 'cool'? start to the day. 74 F when I awoke, as opposed to the usual 78-80. Drier air mass in place should keep precip across the region minimal. Had a brief downpour last night, but most of the energy stayed east of Englewood. Didn't affect my smoker and we ate our spare ribs as scheduled. Love me some good ribs!





NOAA broadens definition of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings April 2013
Quoting 448. SouthTampa:

That drier air feels so nice, especially with the breeze.


Indeed!

Have a great day y'all!
Quoting 449. unknowncomic:

They don't think 92L should be ignored yet.

They are very bad until we have a TC to track. Usually they have a very high bias for every invest on the Atlantic.
"Over the years, there have been numerous times that the remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have affected Arizona. Although there has never been a case when one of these storms actually entered Arizona as a hurricane, there have been several occasions when these storms entered Arizona while still classified as a tropical storm."

Some other notable storms that have impacted Arizona:

1962 Tropical Storm Claudia:
September 25 through 27, 1962: The remains of Tropical Storm Claudia caused severe flash flooding in and around Tucson. Up to seven inches of rain fell in the desert just west of Tucson near the Arizona Sonora Desert Museum. Flood waters inundated Marana and Sells.

1970 Tropical Storm Norma:
Arizona's deadliest storm, more commonly known as The Labor Day storm of 1970. The remains of tropical Storm Norma caused severe flooding in central portions of Arizona and became Arizona's most deadly storm. There were 23 deaths in central Arizona including 14 from flash flooding on Tonto Creek in the vicinity of Kohl's Ranch.
Total rainfall at Workman Creek, about 30 miles north of Globe in the Sierra Ancha mountains, was 11.92 inches with 11.40 inches falling in 24 hours. Other rainfall amounts included 9.09 at Upper Parker Creek, 8.74 at Mount Lemmon, 8.44 at Sunflower, 8.08 at Kitt Peak, 7.12 at the Tonto Creek Fish Hatchery, and 7.01 inches at Crown King.

1972: Hurricane Joanne:
October 4 through 7, 1972: Tropical Storm Joanne (earlier a hurricane) moved across the Baja peninsula and came ashore in western Mexico south of Ajo. The storm brought heavy rain and flooding to much of the state. It is the first documented time that a tropical storm reached Arizona with its cyclonic circulation intact. Heavy rains fell over much of the state with severe flooding in the Clifton, Duncan, and Safford areas. Over 5.00 inches of rain is reported on the Mogollon rim southeast of Flagstaff. Rainfall amounts included 4.44 at Flagstaff, 3.80 at Prescott, 2.21 at Yuma, 1.95 at Phoenix, 1.63 at Nogales, and 1.63 at Tucson.

1977 Hurricane Heather:
October 4 through 7, 1977: the remains of Hurricane Heather produced heavy rain and major flooding over extreme southern Arizona. 8.30 inches of rain fell at Nogales with as much as 14 inches in the surrounding mountains.

1983 Hurricane Octave:
September 28 through October 7, 1983: Tropical storm remains from Hurricane Octave caused heavy rain over Arizona during a 10 day period. Southeast Arizona was particularly hard hit. Severe flooding occurred in Tucson, Clifton, and Safford. Fourteen deaths and 975 injuries are attributed to the flooding. At least 10000 Arizonans were left temporarily homeless. Damage in today's dollars is estimated at 370 million. Rainfall amounts included 9.83 at Nogales, 6.67 at Safford, 6.40 at Tucson, 3.93 at Flagstaff, 2.65 at Phoenix, and 2.62 at Prescott.

1997 Hurricane Nora:
September 25 and 26, 1997: the remains of Hurricane Nora moved up the Colorado river. The center of the storm passed directly over Yuma where winds gusted as high as 54 mph. Significant flooding occurred across western Arizona. 11.97 inches of rain fell in 24 hours on top of Harquahala Mountain breaking the 24 hour record set at Workman Creek in the 1970 Labor Day Storm. 3.59 inches of rain fell at the Yuma Airport.

Via: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/tropics/hurricanes.htm - Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I will third it.....and try it almost all year now!
Not sure how well 92L will do in this region and it really doesnt look conducive to anything outside...

Quoting 454. wantsnow:



I'll Second That!!!!!
It's September the 6th, the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and it's Deadsville out in the tropics. When if ever, will this slow boring inactive pattern ever change? UGH!
Quoting 455. Dakster:



And that is why I left South Florida... It was affecting my health in a very negative way.

95 with the heat index here in my local at the moment
going up to a humidex of 40 to 42 by 104 too 107f late afternoon and again tomorrow
maybe part of Thursday as well
we are under a heat alert as well
feels more like mid summer then early sept here
Heat Warning in effect for:
City of Toronto
Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low thirties today and again Wednesday with humidex values reaching 40 to 42. There may be a few regions where the high temperatures and humidex values will continue into Thursday.
While heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults;
- infants and young children;
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses;
- people who work in the heat;
- people who exercise in the heat;
- homeless people; and
- people without access to air conditioning.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 425. GatorWX: wish it had stayed away from gulf cove didnt need 2+more inches of rain. However the morning was refreshing.

Morning all. Hope everyone had a good, safe holiday weekend!

I kind of just noticed tropical storm warnings are still in place. Is this a new policy? I remember after Sandy, there was some backlash for discontinuing ts warnings/hurricane warnings for the ecoast before the system hit.

Aside from that, a 'cool'? start to the day. 74 F when I awoke, as opposed to the usual 78-80. Drier air mass in place should keep precip across the region minimal. Had a brief downpour last night, but most of the energy stayed east of Englewood. Didn't affect my smoker and we ate our spare ribs as scheduled. Love me some good ribs!


tropics are quiet first day of school went off well all the summer vacationers returned home all is good in building

and the snowbirds just flew over the building on their way to Trenton after the end of the ex yesterday summer is over unofficially
strong cyclonic turning showing up heading in towards the windwards could be something to watch maybe

468. vis0

Quoting 327. thetwilightzone:

it looks like 92L wants too move right over Hispaniola tonight and off too the other side


that seams familiar
Quoting 442. BayFog:


This is the station located nearest the actual geographic cape. I suspected something wasn't right about the pressure reading last night and almost posted my reservation, but decided not to as the storm seemed to be developing rapidly and so it might have been plausible. It may yet turn out to be, but it needs to be mentioned that the NHC has the central pressure of the storm at 979 MB while this station is currently reporting 972 MB. The lowest pressure was recorded at 2:40 AM --- 953.6 MB. The highest sustained wind was 79, with a gust to 108. My surmise is that the station is reporting the correct reading from its barometer, but UNcorrected for sea level. The station is located 735 feet up atop the bluff that overlooks the southernmost point of Baja.


Awesome. Thanks for the helpful information.