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Hermine to Linger Offshore after Soaking Southeast; Dangerous Surge Still Possible

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:49 PM GMT on September 04, 2016

The storm now known as Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to spin east of the mid-Atlantic coast with top sustained winds of 70 mph, as of the 11 am EDT Sunday advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Hermine was located about 295 miles south-southeast of the east end of Long Island, NY, and about 310 miles east-southeast of Ocean City, MD. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect at 11 am EDT Sunday from Cape Charles Light, Virginia, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, and for locations along Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Watch Hill, RI, to Sagamore Beach, MA, as well as Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Hermine moved further east than expected on Saturday, leaving the weather surprisingly mellow on the Mid-Atlantic and New York coastline--but it is still possible that dangerous storm surge could arrive over the next couple of days (see below).


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hermine as of 1515Z (11:15 am EDT) Sunday, September 4, 2016. The solid white areas at top coreespond to Hermine’s intense showers and thunderstorms, which are located well north of the low-level center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

On Saturday, Hermine’s strong winds drove a large storm surge to the coasts of Virginia and northern North Carolina, causing extensive street flooding and beach erosion. The highest water level was observed at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina--a storm tide of 4.68 feet (height of the water above mean sea level), which was the highest water level observed at that station since it was established in 2010 (previous record: 4.02’ during Hurricane Sandy on October 29, 2012.) The high surge in the North Carolina Outer Banks flooded the only road into these vulnerable barrier islands, NC 12. While there was some sand deposited on the road, no major damage was reported by the North Carolina DOT, and the road was open on Sunday. Both bridges connecting NC 12 to the mainland were closed by high winds for a period on Saturday; the high winds caused a fatal crash of a semi-truck on the US-64 bridge, bringing Hermine’s death toll to two people.

High storm surges were also observed on Saturday along the southern Virginia coast at the entrance to Chesapeake Bay, where three tide gages recorded a storm surge between 3.5 and 4.0 feet. Duck, NC received a 3’ storm surge. On Sunday morning, Hermine’s storm surge had abated along the coast, and was less than two feet everywhere, as seen using our wundermap with the Storm Surge layer turned on, or the NOAA Tides and Currents page for Hermine.


Figure 2. Cars drive on the flooded NC Highway 12 in Hatteras, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 3, 2016 after Tropical Storm Hermine passed the Outer Banks. (AP Photo/Tom Copeland) 

Hermine brings heavy rains
Hermine’s rains had mostly ended along the U.S. coast on Sunday, but the storm had left very heavy rains in its wake. Inland flooding was relatively minimal, thanks in large part to the dry conditions that have prevailed across much of the Southeast over the last few weeks in this drought-stricken summer. According to the 11 am Sunday NOAA Storm Summary, the top rain amounts by state were:

Florida, 18.89” at Baskin
North Carolina, 13.34” at Cedar Island
South Carolina, 9.93” at Myrtle Beach AFB
Georgia, 6.37” at Alma
Virginia, 6.50” at Holiday Island


Figure 3. Observed rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday, September 4, 2016. Hermine brought 7-day rainfall amounts of 10+ inches (pink colors) to coastal portions of Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina. The highest storm-total rainfall amounts over a 7-day period were near the Tampa Bay, Florida region; 18.89” fell at Baskin and 15.27” at Largo, just north of St. Petersburg. Image credit: NWS/AHPS.

The forecast for Hermine
Thankfully, it appears that Hermine’s impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast will be considerably less than feared just a day ago. Hermine is still expected to track very slowly north from Sunday through Tuesday, as it becomes entangled with a weak upper-level trough to its west. Our three best track models--the Euro, GFS, and UKMET--now agree that Hermine should remain at least 150-200 miles off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. This is a bigger margin of safety than Saturday’s model runs had implied. Because Hermine scooted farther east than expected on Saturday, it will now be harder for any potential westward wobble to make much of a difference for conditions along the coast. The official NHC track as of 11 am Sunday reflects the model consensus for a slow northwestward arc in Hermine’s path that would bring it as far west as about 70°W on Monday into Tuesday. Models vary on how quickly Hermine begins shifting east of Cape Cod and out to sea for good, with the ECMWF now calling for this to happen on Tuesday, the GFS on Wednesday, and the UKMET on Thursday. The slower solutions keep Hermine a bit closer to the coast before its departure.

Winds: Even though Hermine is classified as a post-tropical cyclone, it may regain some tropical characteristics over the next day or two as it hovers near the boundary of the Gulf Stream, where sea-surface temperatures of 26-28°C (79-82°F) are at least 2°C above average. Hermine’s peak winds are predicted by NHC to increase to minimal hurricane force (65 knots, or 74 mph) from Monday into Tuesday. Any hurricane-strength winds would be focused in a small area near Hermine’s center. However, tropical storm force winds already extend up to 205 miles from the center, and it is possible that some coastal areas will experience sustained tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) as Hermine wobbles its way slowly northward. Such winds are most likely on eastern Long Island, Cape Cod, and nearby islands, including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. Note that Hermine could still be classified as a post-tropical cyclone even if its top winds regain hurricane force.


Figure 4. WU depiction of the official NHC track for Hermine as of 1500Z (11 am EDT). NHC may continue to keep Hermine classified as a post-tropical cyclone even if its peak winds regain hurricane-force strength, as depicted here.

Rainfall: Hermine’s low-level center was devoid of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday morning. We can expect some redevelopment around the north and west sides of the center by Sunday night and Monday, as Hermine shifts toward a more subtropical-cyclone structure. Extensive heavy rains now appear unlikely along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast, given Hermine’s expected distance and the large amount of dry air being entrained on Hermine’s northwest side. Scattered showers and thunderstorms around Hermine’s periphery could drop 1” or 2” at some coastal locations. If Hermine’s precipitation shield grows bigger than expected on Monday, those rains could edge a bit farther inland.

Storm surge: The threat of a severe storm surge has gone down since Saturday due to Hermine’s more eastward location, but storm surge remains a significant threat that could produce major flooding in some locations. There is still high confidence on the long duration of this event, which raises the odds of back-bay flooding that could intensify over several days as water is continually pushed inland.

Shown below are NWS predictions as of midday Sunday for the potential peak storm surge levels at selected locations. The total water height above sea level, called the storm tide, will vary up or down from these numbers by several feet depending on whether the peak falls at high vs. low tide. Access to barrier islands of New Jersey and New York may be compromised by surge-related flooding. For the latest on potential impacts, be sure to check local statements compiled on the NHC website.

Maryland beaches: 2’ or more
Delaware beaches:  3’ or more
New Jersey beaches:  3’ or more
NY Harbor, Long Island (south shore and east bays): 2’ - 4’
Eastern Long Island Sound, Eastern South Shore Bays of Long Island: 2’ - 4’


Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 92L.

92L growing more organized
Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that the moderate level of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a large tropical wave passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday (Invest 92L) had increased in intensity and organization since Saturday. The storm was bringing winds near tropical storm-force to the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning. La Desirade (Guadeloupe) reported sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 57mph at 9 am Sunday in a strong rain band that dumped 0.14” (3.6 mm) of rain; at 11 am, winds had decreased to a sustained 27 mph at the site. Some rotation of the storm’s echoes was apparent on Martinique radar, so we have to watch this tropical wave today to monitor it for further signs of development.

A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward westward path, and the storm will move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and be near Jamaica by Wednesday. If 92L does develop, it probably won’t last long. The 8 am EDT Sunday SHIPS model forecast for 92L showed moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots through through Tuesday, rising to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, for the latter part of the week. The latest 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. More than 40% of the 70 ensemble members of the 0Z Sunday runs of the GFS and European model did show 92L developing into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Monday, but all of them showed the storm being destroyed by high wind shear and dry air before reaching Jamaica on Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 20% and 30%, respectively.

A tropical wave expected to leave the coast of Africa on Tuesday could develop into a tropical depression by next weekend, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Sunday runs of the UKMET and European models. The NASA/GMAO model predicted that Sahara Desert dust and dry air machine would be moderately active during the week, and development of this new tropical wave will likely be hindered by dry air.

90E in the Eastern Pacific a threat to Mexico’s Pacific coast
A large and well-organized tropical disturbance (Invest 90E) is already bringing very heavy rains and gusty winds to southwestern Mexico, as seen on satellite loops. These conditions are likely to continue for the next few days, and NHC is predicting total rainfall amounts of 5 - 10”, with isolated totals up to 15”, across the southern Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. The European and UKMET models predict that 90E will develop into a tropical storm that will hit Mexico’s Baja Peninsula late this week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 80% and 90%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate this system on Monday.

We'll be back with our next update around midday Monday.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hermine
Hermine
Surf pounds sideways against Jeannette’s Pier in Nags Head, NC.

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks guys.

Quoting 588. beell:

Just because the GFS does not show obvious development on any random run elected-does not imply it will not develop! It's not a perfect model.

The seed is consistent and can be tracked. Should be enough to hold one's attention for now. Here it is in the western gulf a week from today.






With brisk trades in place, making consolidation difficult in the eastern Caribbean, there probably will not be much happening until the central Caribbean.

Strong southwesterly shear on the eastern side of a TUTT is forecast to be in place in the west central Caribbean just ahead of 92L @ mid-week. This could...
1) shear the seed.
2) provide an outflow to the north.
3). something in between 1 & 2.

Of course. I'm mainly referring to the 5-day window since most of the conversation with 92L seems to be tied to what it may do in the Caribbean.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Be thankful for dry air.

Thanks yall
<< 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.>>>

And yet, the models have been very accurate with storms in the central and eastern Pacific. Something is different between the two regions, perhaps something like the SAL, which in turn may have something to do with the larger overall warming of the global climate. The difference is signaling something worth a closer look by researchers.
Thank You for the Update and potentially good news downstream in terms of 92L. As I noted on the earlier blog as having heard on TV yesterday, two things are certain in September; tropical storms and football. Going to an annual conference this week in Orlando on Tuesday so I will check back with everyone around Sept 12th.

Stay safe everyone and help your neighbors and communities impacted by Hermine if you are able-bodied and in a position to do so. People in my neighborhood are going around checking on everyone and offering help in the form of food, hot showers, and borrowing chainsaws and the like for those still without power.
Quoting 572. Bucsboltsfan:



Then why does the NHC say that upper level winds are not conducive for development?


He keeps putting up the image of current vertical shear. It's forecast to increase.
Thx Doc. While 92L is looking better now- I'm glad you made it very clear what's out in front of it. If it is ever going to be a real threat it will be in the GOM.
thanks Dr!
Shear tendency.


Quoting 1. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks guys.


Of course. I'm mainly referring to the 5-day window since most of the conversation with 92L seems to be tied to what it may do in the Caribbean.


Yeah, it's pretty clear that shear will likely be unfavorable for the next 4-5 days barring unforeseen change in motion of 92L or the ULL ahead of it. However, here's the GFS's 200mb pattern at 156 hours depicting anticyclonic flow over the Gulf, which it has been consistent in predicting over the past day or so:

Peak of season not peak of season.
Thanks for the update gentlemen!
Quoting 10. Siker:



Yeah, it's pretty clear that shear will likely be unfavorable for the next 4-5 days barring unforeseen change in motion of 92L or the ULL ahead of it. However, here's the GFS's 200mb pattern at 156 hours depicting anticyclonic flow over the Gulf, which it has been consistent in predicting over the past day or so:



Yup, and this run develops it then:

92L could be another 99L only coming up through the Caribbean and not the Bahamas.
Hermine brought just some breezy winds here with fair weather with sunshine and clouds for most of its time passing to the east of the area, it was generally a nice start to September.
I wonder how NC-12 ranks in the country as far as cost goes. It's an expensive little road if you total the amount of money that has gone to fix it over the years.
Quoting 1. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks guys.


Of course. I'm mainly referring to the 5-day window since most of the conversation with 92L seems to be tied to what it may do in the Caribbean.


No worries, TA. I assumed you were focused on near-term (with the SHIPS forecast).
:)
Quoting 11. unknowncomic:

Peak of season not peak of season.


For an "average season" our next named storm would need to be on or before October 4th. I have a feeling we'll have at least one or two named storms by then.

We went through this same exact thing towards the end of July with people were saying the season was dead. Then we got 4 named storms over the next month.
Hmmm. Our Western Caribbean bloggers have suddenly gone silent. Thx Doc and Bob for explaining what is really happening with 92L.
Quoting 18. Sfloridacat5:



For an "average season" our next named storm would need to be on or before October 4th. I have a feeling we'll have at least one or two named storms by then.

We went through this same exact thing towards the end of July with people were saying the season was dead. Then we got 4 named storms over the next month.
Considering the multidecade busy era is supposed finished it is very active. At some point the shear will be La Nina like and it will be nuts in the tropics.
92L is gaining latitude.
Quoting 19. luvtogolf:

Hmmm. Our Western Caribbean bloggers have suddenly gone silent. Thx Doc and Bob for explaining what is really happening with 92L.


Lol a single word is enough to explain why : wishcasting :))))
Quoting 18. Sfloridacat5:



For an "average season" our next named storm would need to be on or before October 4th. I have a feeling we'll have at least one or two named storms by then.

We went through this same exact thing towards the end of July with people were saying the season was dead. Then we got 4 named storms over the next month.
The only storm of true quality was Gaston.Earl and Hermine both struggled until about 48 hours from landfall and T.D 8 was destroyed by shear.
Quoting 20. unknowncomic:

Considering the multidecade busy era is supposed finished it is very active. At some point the shear will be La Nina like and it will be nuts in the tropics.


Has it been officially declared over?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
moving across the Lesser Antilles. This wave continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Significant development of this system appears unlikely while it
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the
next several days. Regardless of whether or not development occurs,
this wave will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles through early Monday and
should spread over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Recon plan of the day jumps the gun on naming next East Pacific Storm?


1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
A. 05/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0115E NEWTON
C. 05/1730Z
D. 18.5N 107.5W
E. 05/2030Z TO 05/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
What has happened to this site: http://moe.met.fsu.edu
X now above 15N...... xD
Quoting 24. Bucsboltsfan:



Has it been officially declared over?
Unofficially.
Quoting 27. tripleb:

What has happened to this site: http://moe.met.fsu.edu


Most likely power out at FSU.
Quoting 30. nrtiwlnvragn:



Most likely power out at FSU.


Didn't think of that ... thanks.
Quoting 31. tripleb:



Didn't think of that ... thanks.
Power back on around Thursday.
Quoting 28. CaribBoy:

X now above 15N...... xD

Looks like I may get some rain. Some gusty winds in there, too.
So no change in the TWO. I'm thinking more and more this could be another GOM storm (not necessarily the same area). It's going to have to fight off very hostile conditions through the Caribbean.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922016) 20160904 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 60.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 56.7W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting 33. Kyon5:

Looks like I may get some rain. Some gusty winds in there, too.


92L is tacking its sweet time, and that slow motion allows it to gain latitude :)
More like 16N 59W (maybe)
IMHO I don't think the models do a very good job with wind shear. Hermine worked it's way through wind shear people on her wrote her off a number of times.
Quoting 30. nrtiwlnvragn:



Most likely power out at FSU.


For me, it was down at least a day or so before Hermine made landfall
Thanks Gentlemen,
For Posterity: Libby's Landing vs. Cedar Key Cam
Link
Via: Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com
heard some bad flooding reported in the outer banks while hermine passed through. the water came from the sound side.
My apologies in advance for this post- my wu-mailbox icon is not working, and I don't know if other folks wu-mailbox icon is working, either. Ya'll might want to check your mailboxes regularly.

Beell, you have wu-mail.
re- Mark Suddath's Cedar Key cam- I actually watched that live when it happened, don't know why but it scared the bejeebers outta me.

I can't even finish watching that video- I wonder why it scares me so.
Quoting 44. aquak9:

re- Mark Suddath's Cedar Key cam- I actually watched that live when it happened, don't know why but it scared the bejeebers outta me.

I can't even finish watching that video- I wonder why it scares me so.


Some bad memory from your early years or a past life. and good morning btw !
Just stoppedin for a sec. Headed to grocery store. These storms leave bad vibes when they pass through. Constant bickering between me and my hard headed 16 year old today. Oh well, he will be happy with me when i get back from grocery store lol
Regarding 92L, it's hard to go against what the NHC is saying right now. A low threat to develop through 5 days at least due to shear. Beyond that, it'll be a question of whether anything is left. I lean towards no, but we'll see. Beyond that, a little surprised at the lack of activity and lack of model signals for activity in the Atlantic. Hard to believe it'll be too long before we see more chances though.

And I can't for the life of me figure out why people are complaining about the supposed lack of activity this season. By every objective measure we are at or above average so far, although we may slip in the next week. But what more are you looking for? Sure, it's not a hyperactive season, but was it supposed to be? Not in my book.
Quoting 37. CaribBoy:

More like 16N 59W (maybe)


That's pretty much where the center is - & Ascat did not lie- Re Tropical storm force wind field -this system has been clobbering us on the East coast area with gusts to tropical storm force since early morning -quite a good bit of foliage affected.
The center is consolidating nicely near Guadeloupe at the moment -just to our North, and can again be seen clearly on the Barbados radar and Martinique...http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity &Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&PlanetOfTheApes=145 0066007
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antill es-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
-This system should at least be a depression by now given it intensity and obvious increased organization.

Keep safe everyone and God Bless!
Also, Kudos to our electricity company -Domlec...only a few flickers during the worst of the strong squall lines. Though to be cautious I had to switch off during the most intense thunderstorms. At least at this point its still day- as the center may organize further when it crosses the islands- everyone for the most part is on the alert island-wide by now.

God Bless!
Quoting 4. BayFog:

<< 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.>>>

And yet, the models have been very accurate with storms in the central and eastern Pacific. Something is different between the two regions, perhaps something like the SAL, which in turn may have something to do with the larger overall warming of the global climate. The difference is signaling something worth a closer look by researchers.


SAL may be a factor - exactly when and where a large slug of dry air comes off Africa. The Western edge of the Atlantic basin has a lot of land interaction, that in some instances may increase probability of a spinup (BOC) or may hinder development (Hispaniola). Difficult to model the effects of land interaction and exactly what a circulation may or may not do.
Central and East Pacific are devoid of any significant land masses interacting with developing storms, hence the greater skill in which the models are able to forecast track and potential intensity.
Quoting 39. beell:



For me, it was down at least a day or so before Hermine made landfall


May have shut things down as a precaution against power surges, etc.
Good afternoon from Antigua. Overcast, windy, but very little rain from 92L. How far north are showers expected to spread?
So Hermine went further offshore than originally forecast ?...another busted forecast ?
Quoting 47. MAweatherboy1:

Regarding 92L, it's hard to go against what the NHC is saying right now. A low threat to develop through 5 days at least due to shear. Beyond that, it'll be a question of whether anything is left. I lean towards no, but we'll see. Beyond that, a little surprised at the lack of activity and lack of model signals for activity in the Atlantic. Hard to believe it'll be too long before we see more chances though.

And I can't for the life of me figure out why people are complaining about the supposed lack of activity this season. By every objective measure we are at or above average so far, although we may slip in the next week. But what more are you looking for? Sure, it's not a hyperactive season, but was it supposed to be? Not in my book.

Based on how storms are struggling with SAL and sinking air, and given we are in a non el nino enso, it is surprising. Numbers aside, conditions in the Atlantic don't support anything more than an average season, which is shocking given no el nino, warm SSTS in the tropics, and average to slightly below average shear. Been this way since 2011. Pacific cranks out impressive storm after storm while the Atlantic huffs and puffs so I understand why others are mad or frustrated at why the last several seasons have been rather anemic.

I remember numerous people on here complaining about the 2013 hurricane season and now those same people are telling others to shut their mouths.Amnesia much?
Quoting 55. wunderweatherman123:


Based on how storms are struggling with SAL and sinking air, and given we are in a non el nino enso, it is surprising. Numbers aside, conditions in the Atlantic don't support anything more than an average season, which is shocking given no el nino, warm SSTS in the tropics, and average to slightly below average shear. Been this way since 2011. Pacific cranks out impressive storm after storm while the Atlantic huffs and puffs so I understand why others are mad or frustrated at why the last several seasons have been rather anemic.


May be a factor of "timing" - the end of El Nino conditions were put on pause, which may have delayed some of the other atmospheric effects. It would be interesting if a study were done looking at how the transition progresses from El Nino to La Nina has an effect. Unfortunately, the sample size is prolly a bit too small to be able to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Edit: clarification added
Quoting 47. MAweatherboy1:

Regarding 92L, it's hard to go against what the NHC is saying right now. A low threat to develop through 5 days at least due to shear. Beyond that, it'll be a question of whether anything is left. I lean towards no, but we'll see. Beyond that, a little surprised at the lack of activity and lack of model signals for activity in the Atlantic. Hard to believe it'll be too long before we see more chances though.

And I can't for the life of me figure out why people are complaining about the supposed lack of activity this season. By every objective measure we are at or above average so far, although we may slip in the next week. But what more are you looking for? Sure, it's not a hyperactive season, but was it supposed to be? Not in my book.

This season was expected to be average to slightly above average, and we're right on pace for that. We've already had more hurricanes/majors/ACE than all of 2013 ever had.
Quoting 54. MahFL:

So Hermine went further offshore than originally forecast ?...another busted forecast ?


No, the models show what potentially could happen. Given the uncertainty (aka spread) in the model runs of what potentially could happen, the forecasters have to address all possibilities. Since there was a possibility that Hermine could track very close to land, the forecasters outlined very well what the potential impacts could be, and did note that the further Hermine tracked to the east, the less impact there would be.

Now you hear to tell me that this is only given a 20/30. Look how well organized this looks,
Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 92L.

Is there a total eclipse of the sun?
Sorry I do not recall who posted this link when 99L was passing through but it is a good one, thanks!
Sabre Radar Reflectivity for Area EC_centralAtlantic
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuCo mposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector= EC_centralAtlantic&Composite=Sabre

PS Wider view to Central America and FL:
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuCo mposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector= fullView&Composite=Sabre
Quoting 59. daddyjames:



No, the models show what potentially could happen. Given the uncertainty (aka spread) in the model runs of what potentially could happen, the forecasters have to address all possibilities. Since there was a possibility that Hermine could track very close to land, the forecasters outlined very well what the potential impacts could be, and did note that the further Hermine tracked to the east, the less impact there would be.

daddyjames,
WUMail for you...
I don't understand the 2013 comparisons, since activity wise we have been much more active than 2013 at this point. For comparison:

2013 at this point: 6-0-0, ACE 9
2016 at this point: 8-4-1, ACE 39

We have had more hurricanes, major hurricanes and ACE than all of 2013 ever had. We have 4 times as much ACE as 2013 had at this point. This is the fastest start to an Atlantic season since 2012. Only a few more storms will probably get us close to average.
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:



2 fish storms. yuck but least it develops something. GFS way further south, and weaker
Quoting 61. HurricaneAndre:


Now you hear to tell me that this is only given a 20/30. Look how well organized this looks,


it may not be has well organized has you think it is pluse it is about too run in too a wall of shear
A little over exaggerated IMO
Quoting 59. daddyjames:



No, the models show what potentially could happen.


The models cost a lot of business owners 1000's of dollars.....
Quoting 66. wunderweatherman123:


2 fish storms. yuck but least it develops something. GFS way further south, and weaker
It is not yuck to those who have to pay the damage it when it comes, as long as they are beautiful looking like Gaston, I would like more of them to watch.
Someone needs to stop messing around with the anemometer in Puerto Rico:

Quoting 57. daddyjames:



May be a factor of "timing" - the end of El Nino conditions were put on pause, which may have delayed some of the other atmospheric effects. It would be interesting if a study were done looking at how the transition progresses from El Nino to La Nina has an effect. Unfortunately, the sample size is prolly a bit too small to be able to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Edit: clarification added


The analog of 1998 I think is fair. Transition from a strong El-Nino and was just above-average with a pretty strong subtropical high in place for much of the summer. Though a few CV storms were hurricane status closer to Africa than Gaston was. Post-peak was fairly slow but accumulated lots of ACE with Mitch. I felt this would occur this season, but have more storms form in the late part of the season than 1998 and fewer in Aug/early Sep than that year. I forget my totals I submitted, but I believe I picked 14 named storms to coincide with 1998.
Quoting 69. MahFL:



The models cost a lot of business owners 1000's of dollars.....


Better they have an idea of what potentially could happen, versus no idea at all. What a business owner decides to do with the information on hand is entirely up to that particular business owner.
74. vis0

Quoting 7. luvtogolf:

Thx Doc. While 92L is looking better now- I'm glad you made it very clear what's out in front of it. If it is ever going to be a real threat it will be in the GOM.
If by threat you mean a better change of a TS/Hurr sure but lets not forget "2 Tons of Feathers weighs the same as 2 Tons of bricks" (quoting Big Bird...i think)

So what???

3 -6 inches of rain be it arriving by 60mph gusts or falling straight down is still** 3-6 inches of rain (which includes that force it brings by flowing downstream. Therefore to the Islands or larger land masses if 92L can squeeze out lots of moisture its a real threat.

**only statues and monuments might disagree as wind swept rain can smooth out "armpits+"  of statures but rain falling straight down rain can't.  (last comment brought to you by SURE i antiperspirant...if your SURE clog your pores)
man! ex92XL(ong)_Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine has gone on a bit of a fishing trip, lets OB how much it swings back or not.
I certainly don't know what will become of 92l but as far as shear goes and it's future tendency, if i remember correctly shear forecasts for 99L were supposed to be low but seemed to stay at least moderate for most of its cycle. Does anyone really know? Maybe the shadow knows.
Quoting 9. Bucsboltsfan:

Shear tendency.




Quoting 4. BayFog:

<< 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.>>>

And yet, the models have been very accurate with storms in the central and eastern Pacific. Something is different between the two regions, perhaps something like the SAL, which in turn may have something to do with the larger overall warming of the global climate. The difference is signaling something worth a closer look by researchers.


I really do think warming temperatures has a big effect. The Pacific is so large it acts like a giant battery storing thermal energy. Also the desert regions of the western Americas are lined with 4,000+ meter mountains which might affect lower-level wind patterns (this is just a guess I'm pulling out of thin air) we don't see in our basin. There is nothing like the Sahara anywhere else on the planet in sheer scope. Linking that to model performance though is something I agree that research in the future could be very beneficial in conducting.
Quoting 55. wunderweatherman123:


Based on how storms are struggling with SAL and sinking air, and given we are in a non el nino enso, it is surprising. Numbers aside, conditions in the Atlantic don't support anything more than an average season, which is shocking given no el nino, warm SSTS in the tropics, and average to slightly below average shear. Been this way since 2011. Pacific cranks out impressive storm after storm while the Atlantic huffs and puffs so I understand why others are mad or frustrated at why the last several seasons have been rather anemic.


We are way above an average season in terms of numbers though.
Quoting 64. Picatso:


daddyjames,
WUMail for you...



replied
With all the hindrances and delays Hermine had, you can't EVER discount a storm...
Quoting 57. daddyjames:



May be a factor of "timing" - the end of El Nino conditions were put on pause, which may have delayed some of the other atmospheric effects. It would be interesting if a study were done looking at how the transition progresses from El Nino to La Nina has an effect. Unfortunately, the sample size is prolly a bit too small to be able to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Edit: clarification added

Possibly more money into reasearch of how to decrease severity of hurricanes, given that in the atlantic the hurricanes affect the wealthiest country in the world? Not claiming/hinting just asking the question. A lot of these storms have great conditions but remain weak when computer models and forecasters/enthusiasts here should expect to see. Again no conspiracy theorists but is it wrong to ask a question like this?
Quoting 44. aquak9:

re- Mark Suddath's Cedar Key cam- I actually watched that live when it happened, don't know why but it scared the bejeebers outta me.

I can't even finish watching that video- I wonder why it scares me so.


A bad batch of fruit cocktail in the past?

Quoting 80. Klolly23:

Possibly more money into reasearch of how to decrease severity of hurricanes, given that in the atlantic the hurricanes affect the wealthiest country in the world? Not claiming/hinting just asking the question. A lot of these storms have great conditions but remain weak when computer models and forecasters/enthusiasts here should expect to see. Again no conspiracy theorists but is it wrong to ask a question like this?


its been tried in the past - that is documented. However, these storms often are more beneficial than they are devestating. Yes, Hermine brought awful conditions to people in the Southeast, but it also delivered a slug of rain to a region that was suffering from a developing drought. And as CaribBoy and WKC indicate, the vast majority of rainfall in the Caribbean (at least for the smaller islands) is derived from waves and storms delivering rainfall at this time of year (hence their paradoxical behavior of rooting for a storm].

Were it not for tropical moisture/systems impacting the SE US and the Caribbean, these regions would be significantly drier than they are. The Caribbean essentially should be a desert, given its location. Waves and storms are one reason why many of the islands are not.
FSU site back up. I think someone forget to turn on the "ON" switch.

crankyweatherguy ‏@crankywxguy 4h
Elsewhere the #ianforafricawave watch of which holds the career reputation of @islivingston in the balance continues
Quoting 67. thetwilightzone:



it may not be has well organized has you think it is pluse it is about too run in too a wall of shear

It has done pretty well there i think it could survive the wall of shear.
90E is forming a Central Dense Overcast, and is near tropical depression status. Development chance is 90%.

I have noticed some unreliable models have 92L moving near Florida that is not gonna happen strong ringing will drive this towards the BBC once there conditions should be favorable for development this system is likely a Texas or Mexico storm alsof I want to point out euro latest run does develop this into a tropical storm between hours 216 and 240 and GFS supports development I think it WI'll develop but not till the BOC
Quoting 75. Flstorminterceptor:

I certainly don't know what will become of 92l but as far as shear goes and it's future tendency, if i remember correctly shear forecasts for 99L were supposed to be low but seemed to stay at least moderate for most of its cycle. Does anyone really know? Maybe the shadow knows.

shear is decreasing a head of the wave
Quoting 65. HurricaneFan:

I don't understand the 2013 comparisons, since activity wise we have been much more active than 2013 at this point. For comparison:

2013 at this point: 6-0-0, ACE 9
2016 at this point: 8-4-1, ACE 39

We have had more hurricanes, major hurricanes and ACE than all of 2013 ever had. We have 4 times as much ACE as 2013 had at this point. This is the fastest start to an Atlantic season since 2012. Only a few more storms will probably get us close to average.

Current ACE for Atlantic is 45.4 normal for this date is 39 we're 116 percent of normal. Link
Quoting 82. daddyjames:



its been tried in the past - that is documented. However, these storms often are more beneficial than they are devestating. Yes, hermine brought aweful conditions to people in the Southeast, but it also delivered a slug of rain to a region that was suffing from a developing drought. And as CaribBoy and WKC indicate, the vast majority of rainfall in the Caribbean (at least for the smaller islands) is derived from waves and storms delivering rainfall at this time of year (hence their paradoxical behavior of rooting for a storm.

Were it not for tropical moisture/systems impacting the SE US and the Caribbean, these regions would be significantly drier than they are. The Caribbean essentially should be a desert, given its location. Waves and storms are one reason why many of the islands are not.


Too add to that, hurricanes are a significant source of heat transfer throughout the world. Suppressed hurricane seasons not only mean drier conditions for the tropics, but much warmer as well.
I think the best chance for the next named system to form is between the 10th-15th of September, September will probably have most of its activity during the final 10-14 days of the month into October.
Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro 4m4 minutes ago
Strong upper-level winds inhibiting #Hermine to redevelop tropically today - cirrus zooming over the center
Quoting 90. Grothar:






Gro - not sure I like those maps...
Quoting 4. BayFog:

<< 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.>>>

And yet, the models have been very accurate with storms in the central and eastern Pacific. Something is different between the two regions, perhaps something like the SAL, which in turn may have something to do with the larger overall warming of the global climate. The difference is signaling something worth a closer look by researchers.


On average, the North Atlantic basin has the most inter annual variability and distinctive seasonal peak of any basin on the globe. Extreme year-to-year variance (which is largely attributed to ENSO & occasionally multidecadal regime shifts) are common. Tropical cyclogenesis & intensification in the eastern Pacific is more latitudinally confined than the Atlantic mainly due to the cold California current in the northwestern portion of the basin, adjacent central America landmass to the east, etc. which also generally means that the longer-lived TCs (except on very rare occasions (John (1994) for ex) (which almost exclusively occur in El Nino events)) usually have shorter life spans than the canonical Cape verde hurricanes that often last 1-2 weeks (or more). In addition, more persistent interaction with the subtropical jet & mid-latitude rossby waves which leads to recurvature &/or formation of TCs w/ non-tropical origins, adds more non-linearity & unpredictability to Atlantic TCG and evolution. The Atlantic's main development region is generally more hostile to TCG & intensification vs the eastern Pacific, hence, the Atlantic is typically more sensitive to large-scale background modifications induced by an integrated myriad of external forcings, phenomena, and internal harmonics.
Quoting 92. win1gamegiantsplease:



Too add to that, hurricanes are a significant source of heat transfer throughout the world. Suppressed hurricane seasons not only mean drier conditions for the tropics, but much warmer as well.


It is true that it transfers energy and that this is an theory for why this process occurs.
But I have always wondered if it was so significant in transferring energy to the poles, then why is there a paucity of tropical systems in the Southern hemisphere as compared to the Northern Hemisphere? After all, there is more ocean area in the Southern Hemisphere. So if true, you think it would operate just as often there as it does in the Northern Hemisphere - maybe more so because there is less land interaction.

Is it perhaps we have more land in the Northern Hemisphere and thus overall temperatures are higher? Or is it a factor of how the currents/ocean temperatures are distributed in the Southern versus Northern Hemisphere versus how these systems propagate?

I believe that there is a heat transfer, but not sure that the mechanism of tropical storm formation is all that important of a part of that mechanism globally. Could be wrong though. Could be completely wrong.
Quoting 95. chsstormgirl:



Gro - not sure I like those maps...
Don't worry it will show something different next run.
Quoting 95. chsstormgirl:



Gro - not sure I like those maps...


Not to worry. I only post those for the afternoon "Sunday Scare". They are a long way out.
Quoting 93. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I think the best chance for the next named system to form is between the 10th-15th of September, September will probably have most of its activity during the final 10-14 days of the month into October.
Got to agree. The SAL and the dry air will finally be gone. Shear probably less over all as well.
Quoting 96. Webberweather53:



On average, the North Atlantic basin has the most inter annual variability and distinctive seasonal peak of any basin on the globe. Extreme year-to-year variance (which is largely attributed to ENSO & occasionally multidecadal regime shifts) are common. Tropical cyclogenesis & intensification in the eastern Pacific is more latitudinally confined than the Atlantic mainly due to the cold California current in the northwestern portion of the basin, adjacent central America landmass to the east, etc. which also generally means that the longer-lived TCs (except on very rare occasions (John (1994) for ex) (which almost exclusively occur in El Nino events)) usually have shorter life spans than the canonical Cape verde hurricanes that often last 1-2 weeks (or more). In addition, more persistent interaction with the subtropical jet & mid-latitude rossby waves which leads to recurvature &/or formation of TCs w/ non-tropical origins, adds more non-linearity & unpredictability to Atlantic TCG and evolution. The Atlantic's main development region is generally more hostile to TCG & intensification vs the eastern Pacific, hence, the Atlantic is typically more sensitive to large-scale background modifications induced by an integrated myriad of external forcings, phenomena, and internal harmonics.


yeah, I was going to say all that too - but I just wanted to keep it simple ;)
Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 24m24 minutes ago New Castle, NH
Quite a satellite loop over #Hermine. Looks to be starting to make its curl northward.
For clarity purposes only.

Quoting 99. Grothar:



Not to worry. I only post those for the afternoon "Sunday Scare". They are a long way out.


Before I looked at the parameters I thought you had found FIM picking up 92L; then I saw the hours :>)

The Canadian has a nice Texas spook in it right now and we all know the GFS seldom fails us in the over 300 hr range.

Happy Labour Day (keeping one eye fixed on 92L).
107. vis0

Quoting 69. MahFL:



The models cost a lot of business owners 1000's of dollars.....
Lets play detective  (Kojak lollipop ...ready...didn't ant to whip out my magnifying glass Watson might get upset)

1). Scientist present idea for compu'rs that will try to mimic nature next move.
2). Scientist / Engineers / mathematicians / Designers / many workers invent / build such machines.
3). Science asks for more funding to improve WxModels.
4). Politicos say no way that's wasting money.
5). Storms / WxTrends develope in a more complex atmosphere due to a warmer atmosphere caused in part by not caring DECADES AGO.   In not having any historical precedence to the faster than normal warming present day compu'r models cannot figure out what is next as efficiently as desired.
6). Some blame WxModels for not predicting in a manner that saves most people money.
7). vis0 types a play on words in # 8
8). We seem to be stuck between a rock (some hard minded greedy individuals that are to represent all people in their area (local, city, state, USofA) and the best for all those peoples future yet continually do favours  for "their in-circle" few) and a hard place (the constant hard line playing of the blame game (by local officials) w/o including ones self (said officials)  a major cause of that game by the bad decisions they made to cut funding decades ago.

see what i did there, i krazy clued 1 to 9

who luvs ya  (not adding baby out of respect for babies they know not of how the adults are toying with their health.) GaGaGuGu
Quoting 105. Grothar:

For clarity purposes only.




Clear as mud.
Quoting 103. Grothar:




92L rip
Quoting 107. vis0:


Lets play detective%uFFFD (Kojak lollipop ...ready...didn't ant to whip out my magnifying glass Watson might get upset)

1). Scientist present idea for compu'rs that will try to mimic nature next move.
2). Scientist / Engineers / mathematicians / Designers / many workers invent / build such machines.
3). Science asks for more funding to improve WxModels.
4). Politicos say no way that's wasting money.
5). Storms / WxTrends develope in a more complex atmosphere due to a warmer atmosphere caused in part by not caring DECADES AGO. %uFFFD In not having any historical precedence to the faster than normal warming present day compu'r models cannot figure out what is next as efficiently as desired.
6). Some blame WxModels for not predicting in a manner that saves most people money.
7). vis0 types a play on words in # 8
8). We seem to be stuck between a rock (some hard minded greedy individuals that are to represent all people in their area (local, city, state, USofA) and the best for all those peoples future yet continually do favours%uFFFD for "their in-circle" few) and a hard place (the constant hard line playing of the blame game (by local officials) w/o including ones self (said officials)%uFFFD a major cause of that game by the bad decisions they made to cut funding decades ago.

see what i did there, i krazy clued 1 to 9

who luvs ya%uFFFD (not adding baby out of respect for babies they know not of how the adults are toying with their health.) GaGaGuGu



vis - I love your absolutely wonderfully-unique ability of interpreting the world around us, and your sense of humor as well - although oftentimes when I read your posts, I hear something whizzing by overhead.
111. JRRP7
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
SW winds in islands and pressures near 1008. 92L is alive
Surf is on the way down big time from Manasquan, NJ to Avon, NC. I've seen bigger swells from routine winter coastal storms. The cams show it. See link.

Link

Manasquan, NJ beach is deserted. Breezy but sunny. Businesses up and down the coast took a big hit. Really unfortunate set of events.

Models are just models. They are tools and they can be imperfect.

That is also why I'm not writing off 92L.
92l...



Link
115. JLPR2
The MLC seems to have relinquished control of the convection to the LLC, tonight could (big could) be interesting.

Quoting 61. HurricaneAndre:


Now you hear to tell me that this is only given a 20/30. Look how well organized this looks,

Quite Agreed and its getting Better organized and stacked at Mid and low levels by the minute...I definitely do not like the latest look of this system on satellite imagery and radar loop animations.
Thankfully what is happening today will likely not continue into Monday -as it would have been a washout- and a blow out to the start of the week & 'back to school'...literally. Nevertheless, kudos to the models that were depicting a prolonged impact from 92L on the islands of the Lesser Antilles -more so the Central Isles. This has been a long, stormy day carrying over from late yesterday in fact. It has not been this stormy -not even since Erika since it was mainly a tropical system -flood disaster event. Perhaps Not since Bertha of 2014 & Chantal in 2013 has it been this stormy in most parts of the Nature Island, Dominica (Dominique).
Antigua & Barbuda including some of the Leewards should also get some squalls as this system pushes through the mainly Central portion of the Lesser Antilles.
The local met office here- which has been a lot more pro-active in issuance of alerts, of course -Post Erika has recently put us under a Flash Flood Watch/ Alert...at this point perhaps this was even overdue. I think the average layman could have realized from late yesterday that this was most likely going to be a pretty serious system in effects. We remain on Alert...

Keep safe everyone & God Bless!
Shes starting to curve

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

The pressure down to 1007 mb in Dominica main airport https://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78906 .html
Quoting 103. Grothar:




This is definitely Not what I wanted to see as we head into another evening period...Most predictions take the current center directly over my island.
We'll see what night time brings...as always Time will tell.

God Bless!
Quoting 122. NatureIsle:



This is definitely Not what I wanted to see as we head into another evening period...Most predictions take the current center directly over my island.
We'll see what night time brings...as always Time will tell.

God Bless!

Im not sure what part of the island you are, but im on the southeastern coast and its very windy. Looking at the radar, theres a heavy band to our east but it doesnt seem to be making any progress eastwards... Will have to see how the night unfolds...
Oklahoma orders wastewater disposal wells shut down after earthquake
US Geological Survey to investigate whether hydraulic fracking activity played a role in 5.6-magnitude earthquake, equal to strongest in state’s history
Associated Press in Oklahoma City, Sunday 4 September 2016 21.11 BST
Perhaps she will hook back west faster than expected

126. SLU
Quoting 96. Webberweather53:



On average, the North Atlantic basin has the most inter annual variability and distinctive seasonal peak of any basin on the globe. Extreme year-to-year variance (which is largely attributed to ENSO & occasionally multidecadal regime shifts) are common. Tropical cyclogenesis & intensification in the eastern Pacific is more latitudinally confined than the Atlantic mainly due to the cold California current in the northwestern portion of the basin, adjacent central America landmass to the east, etc. which also generally means that the longer-lived TCs (except on very rare occasions (John (1994) for ex) (which almost exclusively occur in El Nino events)) usually have shorter life spans than the canonical Cape verde hurricanes that often last 1-2 weeks (or more). In addition, more persistent interaction with the subtropical jet & mid-latitude rossby waves which leads to recurvature &/or formation of TCs w/ non-tropical origins, adds more non-linearity & unpredictability to Atlantic TCG and evolution. The Atlantic's main development region is generally more hostile to TCG & intensification vs the eastern Pacific, hence, the Atlantic is typically more sensitive to large-scale background modifications induced by an integrated myriad of external forcings, phenomena, and internal harmonics.


Best post on record!

+1000
127. JRRP7
Quoting 96. Webberweather53:



On average, the North Atlantic basin has the most inter annual variability and distinctive seasonal peak of any basin on the globe. Extreme year-to-year variance (which is largely attributed to ENSO & occasionally multidecadal regime shifts) are common. Tropical cyclogenesis & intensification in the eastern Pacific is more latitudinally confined than the Atlantic mainly due to the cold California current in the northwestern portion of the basin, adjacent central America landmass to the east, etc. which also generally means that the longer-lived TCs (except on very rare occasions (John (1994) for ex) (which almost exclusively occur in El Nino events)) usually have shorter life spans than the canonical Cape verde hurricanes that often last 1-2 weeks (or more). In addition, more persistent interaction with the subtropical jet & mid-latitude rossby waves which leads to recurvature &/or formation of TCs w/ non-tropical origins, adds more non-linearity & unpredictability to Atlantic TCG and evolution. The Atlantic's main development region is generally more hostile to TCG & intensification vs the eastern Pacific, hence, the Atlantic is typically more sensitive to large-scale background modifications induced by an integrated myriad of external forcings, phenomena, and internal harmonics.


How many times can I like a post? great insight thank you very much.
CMC has gone down to TS for 92L hitting TX/LA border area..still too far out in time...
Quoting 125. FIUStormChaser:

Perhaps she will hook back west faster than expected




Almost no strong convection within hundreds of miles of the COC. All the strong convection is a couple hundred miles to the north and east of the system.
131. bwi
Good evening everyone. Looks like a stormy night coming for some of the islands. Here in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic, Hermine has mostly stayed far enough offshore to actually be a blessing, not a nuisance. Beautiful mostly sunny, light northeast breeze, excellent weather for our Labor Day Festival.

I'm a bit concerned that 92L might strengthen to point where it can survive as a sheared spinner and re-build convection in the western Caribbean later...

Finally, a note from the north. Today we officially (by one measure anyway) reached the milestone of 2nd lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic. Measures of ice area and volume are also trending toward a solid 2nd place behind 2012's record lows.

If you like (short) movies, watch what happened this melt season to Obuoy 14, which floated around the Beaufort Gyre all summer before it went for a swim! (I think those are polar bear footprints at minute 8:42 by the way.) Despite a fairly cloudy summer, which limited melt ponds and top melt during the weeks of strongest summer sun, the water temps are so warm now that bottom melt was very heavy this year.
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/mov ie


TD 15-E, soon to be Newton, showing good rotation over very deep warm water, forecast to be at the tip of Baja in 2 days.
133. JRRP7


The LLC of 92L IMO is actually near 13N/62W

Lester, hanging on north of Hawaii, looking like it's wrapping up an eye again, although that would seem unlikely.
I'm in the process of finishing up a blog entry for tomorrow about Hurricane Fran and the 1996 season to mark the twentieth anniversary of the storm. I'll post a link for it sometime tomorrow.

Quoting 97. daddyjames:



It is true that it transfers energy and that this is an theory for why this process occurs.
But I have always wondered if it was so significant in transferring energy to the poles, then why is there a paucity of tropical systems in the Southern hemisphere as compared to the Northern Hemisphere? After all, there is more ocean area in the Southern Hemisphere. So if true, you think it would operate just as often there as it does in the Northern Hemisphere - maybe more so because there is less land interaction.

Is it perhaps we have more land in the Northern Hemisphere and thus overall temperatures are higher? Or is it a factor of how the currents/ocean temperatures are distributed in the Southern versus Northern Hemisphere versus how these systems propagate?

I believe that there is a heat transfer, but not sure that the mechanism of tropical storm formation is all that important of a part of that mechanism globally. Could be wrong though. Could be completely wrong.


It's probably not that simple, no. But that's out of my scope. I do know the global conveyor belt brings generally cooler water through the southern hemisphere's oceans. That along with the South Atlantic not seeing the ITCZ travel as far south during their summer as it goes north during ours is why tropical cyclogenesis is rare there.
Does anyone have the current spaghetti model runs for Hermine? I've been saying since yesterday afternoon that it didn't look like it was going to stop moving east... and it hasn't, really, though looks to finally be slowing down, and looking as if it wants to loop more north for a bit.

But I'd like to see those model runs to try to make out which one has made the best prediction of its path so far, and perhaps will thus have the best handle on Hermine's future. I know one model had it head north a touch, then turn due west to run right along the southern coast of Long Island. Almost totally unlikely/impossible given how big and strong it is now, but still... Hermine's been such grief for so long, hanging in there, that I'm afraid to put anything past it.

Jo
Quoting 125. FIUStormChaser:

Perhaps she will hook back west faster than expected


First Sign of convection closer to the center. Comments! 3000 comments!
Quoting 125. FIUStormChaser:

Perhaps she will hook back west faster than expected




Only thing I see is "Wind Shear" Keeping all the storms to
the north and east of Hermine....

Taco :o)
North west winds in Dominica
Ships says shear drops from 48 knots to 5 Knots in two days when Hermine is at 39.2N 69.7 W.
Ships says shear drops from 48 knots to 5 Knots in two days when Hermine is at 39.2N 69.7 W. However SST. drops to 25.7 C..
Quoting 138. flibinite:

Does anyone have the current spaghetti model runs for Hermine? I've been saying since yesterday afternoon that it didn't look like it was going to stop moving east... and it hasn't, really, though looks to finally be slowing down, and looking as if it wants to loop more north for a bit.

But I'd like to see those model runs to try to make out which one has made the best prediction of its path so far, and perhaps will thus have the best handle on Hermine's future. I know one model had it head north a touch, then turn due west to run right along the southern coast of Long Island. Almost totally unlikely/impossible given how big and strong it is now, but still... Hermine's been such grief for so long, hanging in there, that I'm afraid to put anything past it.

Jo


Best thing I know of for this is off of Tropicaltidbits. The farthest back I can get is 00Z from the fourth which came out around 8pm last night. Right off of Wunderground under active storms they have an animation of it that goes through most its life. Link
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 138. flibinite:

Does anyone have the current spaghetti model runs for Hermine? I've been saying since yesterday afternoon that it didn't look like it was going to stop moving east... and it hasn't, really, though looks to finally be slowing down, and looking as if it wants to loop more north for a bit.

But I'd like to see those model runs to try to make out which one has made the best prediction of its path so far, and perhaps will thus have the best handle on Hermine's future. I know one model had it head north a touch, then turn due west to run right along the southern coast of Long Island. Almost totally unlikely/impossible given how big and strong it is now, but still... Hermine's been such grief for so long, hanging in there, that I'm afraid to put anything past it.

Jo


LINK

146. JRRP7
Quoting 138. flibinite:

Does anyone have the current spaghetti model runs for Hermine?

Jo

Global: Link
GFS Ensembles: Link
CMC Ensembles: Link
Quoting 139. unknowncomic:

First Sign of convection closer to the center. Comments! 3000 comments!

That appears to be action associated with the cold upper low which is located northeast of the surface low. There's a broader trough extending to the southwest, and it's this feature I believe that the forecasters say will begin to move the storm more northward as it swings around. We shall see.
Looks like Dominica will get some heavy convection from 92L.
150. vis0
Quoting 110. daddyjames:



vis - I love your absolutely wonderfully-unique ability of interpreting the world around us, and your sense of humor as well - although oftentimes when I read your posts, I hear something whizzing by overhead.

ImgLand.net image
My conscience bugged me in posting the comment that was here as the action over the Anti lies deserves more of an on acute focus on blog topic as the aGW is more of an obtuse focus as to the Tropics.  Though GW is related but let me (hopefully us) stay ( focused on the present dangers of present tropical and mainland weather activities. moved org comment that occupied this space to my zilly blog (clicking "there" auto scrolls to the precise comment) go there (cmmnt#475) might not appear till an hour 7:30PM EDT as having trouble with my blog, yesterday could not open it.
151. ackee
Quoting 141. 3211976:

North west winds in Dominica
seem like Dominican will get the full force of 92L will be interesting see wind reading
Quoting 110. daddyjames:



vis - I love your absolutely wonderfully-unique ability of interpreting the world around us, and your sense of humor as well - although oftentimes when I read your posts, I hear something whizzing by overhead.

The whizzing noise may be Viso's mini cooper speeding by.
I don't like the "I"storms!!
Quoting 141. 3211976:

North west winds in Dominica


WSW to W winds out of Trinidad & Tabago
Quoting 153. stormpetrol:

I don't like the "I"storms!!



i wish TD 8 had the I storm this blog would be march better off with Julia
Dmin strikes again :\

92L is extremely depressing.
I hate those 15N 60W small systems...
Quoting 150. vis0:


ImgLand.net image



Not ducking has its consequences . . . oftentimes something has to smack me upside the head before it sinks in. That hurts. Pain is the most effective teacher, lessons learned the hard way are those not soon forgotten. :)
Quoting 158. cowgirl2958:

Link


I love the mystery - do I or don't I chance it? Are the risks worth the rewards?
Quoting 139. unknowncomic:

First Sign of convection closer to the center. Comments! 3000 comments!
its finished put it in the book
Quoting 37. CaribBoy:

More like 16N 59W (maybe)
More than 15.5°North and 60.5°West around 6 pm
Quoting 157. CaribBoy:

I hate those 15N 60W small systems...

Yep I heard this before the only storms you like are typhoon tip size systems
Doing loop DE loops around you for 10 days. Anything that is near the caribbean you say it is gonna head more north or south because you want it to hit you and don't deny it because you know it's true also I am not trying to be mean so don't ban me I am just pointing out a fact
165. JLPR2
According to CIMMS, the 500mb and 700mb vorts are now aligned, but the 850mb and possibly the surface LLC are displaced a bit to the south. 92L has organized some today but it needs more convection to keep it together, fortunately for it & unfortunately for the islands, D-min is over and D-max is around the corner.



166. ackee
Quoting 154. stormpetrol:

Quoting 141. 3211976:

North west winds in Dominica


WSW to W winds out of Trinidad & Tabago LLC ? We need recon


Average temperature anomaly for the next five days. Looks rather warm in the northern hemisphere (in Germany and adjacent countries an even longer heatwave is looming) - except in the northwestern US where my poor sister is vacationing for another week ;-)
Wish you a nice holiday abroad, folks! And good luck with 92L.
Thanks for the links, George1938 and SPShaw. Yes, the BAM's are the scary models, but they have awful track records. And the more obscure CMC's would *not* be good for the Northeast Coast either, especially for Cape Cod.

So, I guess we wait, and hope that Hermine doesn't have one more trick up its sleeve before heading way out east.

Jo
169. IDTH
2016: The year against the models
170. Ed22
Quoting 116. NatureIsle:


Quite Agreed and its getting Better organized and stacked at Mid and low levels by the minute...I definitely do not like the latest look of this system on satellite imagery and radar loop animations.
Thankfully what is happening today will likely not continue into Monday -as it would have been a washout- and a blow out to the start of the week & 'back to school'...literally. Nevertheless, kudos to the models that were depicting a prolonged impact from 92L on the islands of the Lesser Antilles -more so the Central Isles. This has been a long, stormy day carrying over from late yesterday in fact. It has not been this stormy -not even since Erika since it was mainly a tropical system -flood disaster event. Perhaps Not since Bertha of 2014 & Chantal in 2013 has it been this stormy in most parts of the Nature Island, Dominica (Dominique).
Antigua & Barbuda including some of the Leewards should also get some squalls as this system pushes through the mainly Central portion of the Lesser Antilles.
The local met office here- which has been a lot more pro-active in issuance of alerts, of course -Post Erika has recently put us under a Flash Flood Watch/ Alert...at this point perhaps this was even overdue. I think the average layman could have realized from late yesterday that this was most likely going to be a pretty serious system in effects. We remain on Alert...

Keep safe everyone & God Bless!
Agree 100%.
nothing new on the tropic weather out look so no point in posting it
Quoting 167. barbamz:


Average temperature anomaly for the next five days. Looks rather warm in the northern hemisphere (in Germany and adjacent countries an even longer heatwave is looming) - except in the northwest US where my poor sister is vacationing for another week ;-)
Wish you a nice holiday abroad, folks! And good luck with 92L.

This is normally the hottest time of year for the coast in the West, especially in CA, so cooler than average means mild and sunny, which I'll take any day. Possible flies in the ointment later this week for the PacNW and SoCal: the remnants of Lester and Newton, respectively.
Quoting 171. thetwilightzone:

nothing new on the tropic weather out look so no point in posting it


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving across the Lesser Antilles and continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next several
days. This disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles
through Monday morning, and should spread over Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Brown
Quoting 165. JLPR2:

According to CIMMS, the 500mb and 700mb vorts are now aligned, but the 850mb and possibly the surface LLC are displaced a bit to the south. 92L has organized some today but it needs more convection to keep it together, fortunately for it & unfortunately for the islands, D-min is over and D-max is around the corner.





From appearances only, this sure looks like something is pulling together, but as we learn all too often, appearances are often deceiving. It may look like a duck, but it could be a dud.

Stuff is definitely developing along the occlusion boundary/trough/cloud band that's approaching the New Jersey coast.
Ain't this a throwback. Hermine got me in the mood for a documentary. So Florida Hurricane of 1947, the video is from the 50s and they tell you to crack your windows because of air pressure -____- WOW. I actually started laughing.
4.97" here in Longwood today with 8.31" for September. Insane and there is flooding everywhere infact the worst I've ever seen.
I'm grateful because my community was positively devastated by Hurricane Sandy on the Jersey Shore, but this Hermine was billed as armageddon, but it didn't bring a gust of wind, a drop of rain, and the ocean wasn't any more rough than what we ordinarily get. Still they closed all the beaches and scared the tourists away. It couldn't have been a nicer day today.
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:

4.97" here in Longwood today with 8.31" for September. Insane and there is flooding everywhere infact the worst I've ever seen.
Good evening STS! Those totals are nuts!
Quoting 172. BayFog:


This is normally the hottest time of year for the coast in the West, especially in CA, so cooler than average means mild and sunny, which I'll take any day. Possible flies in the ointment later this week for the PacNW and SoCal: the remnants of Lester and Newton, respectively.


Last I looked, the rest of the month and into October are forecast to be warmer than average.
At least that convective blob in 92L seems to be moving WNW (IMO)
Quoting 175. BayFog:


Stuff is definitely developing along the occlusion boundary/trough/cloud band that's approaching the New Jersey coast.
At least we would see SOME action on the Jersey Shore after they hyped it so much!
Quoting 175. BayFog:


Stuff is definitely developing along the occlusion boundary/trough/cloud band that's approaching the New Jersey coast.
At least we would see SOME action on the Jersey Shore after they hyped it so much!
Just a layman but the shear appears to keep moving west in tandem with 92L , I would give this a 40/60%
Still Moving ENE..... this is a joke.
Link

LLC tightening up
Quoting 173. TheBigBanana:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving across the Lesser Antilles and continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next several
days. This disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles
through Monday morning, and should spread over Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Brown
The islands should ignored the usual conservatism of the NHC, on weak systems approaching the Antilles, Since winds over 50 mph were felt over Guadalupe, and apparently, a pretty well COC is detected by the Martinique, Radar. Also the rain bands are increasing , at least get prepared for a minimum TS effects... to avoid tragedies, like in Dominick last year.
Quoting 129. LargoFl:

CMC has gone down to TS for 92L hitting TX/LA border area..still too far out in time...


TS? That's all that thing is? Not a hurricane? We might not even feel that in Houston.
Evening all. Another hot and humid day in Nassau ... beautiful clear skies and easterlies.... watching 92L.....

That is a all :-)....
Quoting 187. HuracanTaino:

The islands should ignored the usual conservatism of the NHC, on weak systems approaching the Antilles, Since winds over 50 mph were felt over Guadalupe, and apparently, a pretty well COC is detected by the Martinique, Radar. Also the rain bands are increasing , at least get prepared for a minimum TS effects... to avoid tragedies, like in Dominick last year.




i think you guys should all go too the NHC and portest with pich forks and demand that 92L gets upgraded too a TS and do not leave there in tell they do
Quoting 190. thetwilightzone:





i think you guys should all go too the NHC and portest with pich forks and demand that 92L gets upgraded too a TS and do not leave there in tell they do


192. ackee
Quoting 190. thetwilightzone:





i think you guys should all go too the NHC and portest with pich forks and demand that 92L gets upgraded too a TS and do not leave there in tell they do Jamaica met office issue Tropical Storm watch and warning for the last wave island met office should do the same if they see the need stay safe
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:

4.97" here in Longwood today with 8.31" for September. Insane and there is flooding everywhere infact the worst I've ever seen.


5" here in my rain gauge in Sweetwater
194. ackee
Quoting 186. stormpetrol:

Link

LLC tightening up seems so let see what it will do tonight
Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com has put up his first Storm Surge Cam in Brigantine, .N.J. , a few miles north of Atlantic City. High tide is at 11:15 pm (ET) tonight.
Live cam with sound - Link
by this time monday 92L will be rip up by wind shear





mark my words


if 92L was going too get the upgrade too IAN then the storm would have been a vary short lived storm wish would make it point less has if they where going too upgrade then they should have gave IAN too TD 8 if where where going too see a short lived storm out of 92L
Quoting 191. GeoffreyWPB:






LOL
Quoting 176. George1938:

Ain't this a throwback. Hermine got me in the mood for a documentary. So Florida Hurricane of 1947, the video is from the 50s and they tell you to crack your windows because of air pressure -____- WOW. I actually started laughing.

I recall hearing opening windows for tornadoes as well, way back when...
AL, 92, 2016090406, , BEST, 0, 144N, 567W, 30, 1007, LO
AL, 92, 2016090412, , BEST, 0, 145N, 584W, 30, 1008, WV
AL, 92, 2016090418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 598W, 30, 1008, WV
AL, 92, 2016090500, , BEST, 0, 145N, 613W, 30, 1009, WV

There was a fella from Tampa.....posted last Wednesday that he was going storm chasin' up in Cedar Key.

Just wanted to find out how that worked out, 'cuz the Key got hit pretty bad by surge....lotsa damage
Hurricane force winds probably. Nothing but sunshine earlier and now moon light here in nj.
I am surprised to see 92L turning counter clockwise tonight.

The wave is moving 15-20 knots and so has the shear to its west move at about the same clip if not a little faster also west.
Quoting 200. KuCommando:

There was a fella from Tampa.....posted last Wednesday that he was going storm chasin' up in Cedar Key.

Just wanted to find out how that worked out, 'cuz the Key got hit pretty bad by surge....lotsa damage


If that was JRWeathermanFL I believe he left Cedar Key in time
Quoting 196. thetwilightzone:

by this time monday 92L will be rip up by wind shear





mark my words


if 92L was going too get the upgrade too IAN then the storm would have been a vary short lived storm wish would make it point less has if they where going too upgrade then they should have gave IAN too TD 8 if where where going too see a short lived storm out of 92L


Doubt it. The KHOU.com weather forum is really starting to get nervous about 92L. I'd say the only logical place it could make landfall is in Texas.
Quoting 198. PuppyToes:


I recall hearing opening windows for tornadoes as well, way back when...


Not even way back when. There was a movie in the 90's called "Night of the Twisters" where they did the same thing. Not sure if it ended up sparing the main cast, as I haven't seen that film in years.
1st time in 92L life

04/2345 UTC 15.5N 60.2W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
i don't know what the NHC is doing...92L is more organized than many tropical storms i've seen and experienced. judging by the observations from the islands i honestly believe we have a weak tropical cyclone just to the east of Guadalupe and Dominica, it should at least be a depression..observations show we have a closed circulation, and winds nearing tropical storm force.
As a few others have mentioned &/or hinted at, there were indeed surface westerlies being reported in the Antilles earlier today. Dominica reported light west winds of ~5 KTS that later shifted to out of the south-southwest and then south, accompanied by surface pressure falls to 1007-1008mb. 15 KT southwesterlies were also reported @ Barbados. Hence, 92L is likely a bit stronger than currently advertised. Most of the global models failed to properly initialize the minimum SLP, the GFS & ECMWF in particular initialized 92L 3-4mb too high...









Quoting 199. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 92, 2016090406, , BEST, 0, 144N, 567W, 30, 1007, LO
AL, 92, 2016090412, , BEST, 0, 145N, 584W, 30, 1008, WV
AL, 92, 2016090418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 598W, 30, 1008, WV
AL, 92, 2016090500, , BEST, 0, 145N, 613W, 30, 1009, WV




Bad juju if shear doesn't kill this thing.
Quoting 202. Chicklit:

I am surprised to see 92L turning counter clockwise tonight.

The wave is moving 15-20 knots and so has the shear to its west move at about the same clip if not a little faster also west.


Good evening. You are correct about the shear slackening at about the same pace as the system moves West. Problem is that historically once it enters the eastern Caribbean as a wave there is little chance of any development as a cyclone until close to 75/80W.

92L is not of concern IMO, at least not for the next 3 days.
212. IDTH
92L looks to be developing well. Those living across the lesser Antilles should watch for some torrential rain and gusty winds.
Quoting 198. PuppyToes:


I recall hearing opening windows for tornadoes as well, way back when...

Just picture the old 50s radio announcer voice explaining how to prep for a hurricane. "Open your windows upon arrival of the first outer bands."They also once gave children cocaine for tooth pain. Makes me wonder what in 50 years they will laugh at us for. Also remember I am lame so that was the funniest thing all weekend.
Quoting 207. TheDeathStar:

i don't know what the NHC is doing...92L is more organized than many tropical storms i've seen and experienced. judging by the observations from the islands i honestly believe we have a weak tropical cyclone just to the east of Guadalupe and Dominica, it should at least be a depression..observations show we have a closed circulation, and winds nearing tropical storm force.



then you call the NHC and tell them that
Quoting 207. TheDeathStar:

i don't know what the NHC is doing...92L is more organized than many tropical storms i've seen and experienced. judging by the observations from the islands i honestly believe we have a weak tropical cyclone just to the east of Guadalupe and Dominica, it should at least be a depression..observations show we have a closed circulation, and winds nearing tropical storm force.


I recommend that you send an email to the NHC telling the boss that the PHD forecasters don't know what they are doing.
If 92L remains intact up to the W carribbean, expect models to flip flop. Models aren't seeing the strong spin with it and as a result kill it. However, if they properly initialzied it, perhaps they would show it surviving at least before developing down the road. Hate to say it but the CMC more or less has been pretty decent with it so far..
Quoting 214. thetwilightzone:




then you call the NHC and tell them that

i've done work for the them and the NWS, there's a just a lot of red tape when it comes to upgrading systems...what can you do...
Quoting 202. Chicklit:

I am surprised to see 92L turning counter clockwise tonight.

The wave is moving 15-20 knots and so has the shear to its west move at about the same clip if not a little faster also west.

Just need some SW action to round it out...
Maybe recon data into the models will wake them up?
Quoting 219. wunderweatherman123:

Maybe recon data into the models will wake them up?


lol the way the NHC is down playing 92L right now no recon will be flying any time soon
Quoting 219. wunderweatherman123:

Maybe recon data into the models will wake them up?

budget problems, that's the problem with NHC...i really respect those working there, i just wish people in the islands had proper warning. Dominica is about to get hammered for the next few hours
Analysis of the 18Z ATCF BTK product, convection is now very close, to almost over the reported center. As of 18Z, the following information was available on INVEST 92L:

8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 4
Location: 15.5°N 60.5°W
Moving: WNW at 15-20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Recon data would be very useful right now. I'm not convinced 92L is a TC at this time, but it would be helpful for the models to get some recon data in there to locate the center and find the minimum pressure, maximum winds, etc.
Quoting 222. kallenjrtx:

They work for Obama...which means not alot of action and all talk!! Lol
lol
Quoting 218. Kowaliga:


Just need some SW action to round it out...


it looks terrible actually, very limited and chaotic in terms of organization....
Quoting 221. TheDeathStar:


budget problems, that's the problem with NHC...i really respect those working there, i just wish people in the islands had proper warning. Dominica is about to get hammered for the next few hours


Isn't there a local Weather Service that does forecasting? This is a tropical wave in which they get many times a year. They don't need the TPC for that.
Gotta poke and have a little fun....maybe if it looks real good tomorrow they will up the odds and send recon. 
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:



Isn't there a local Weather Service that does forecasting? This is a tropical wave in which they get many times a year. They don't need the TPC for that.


It's not that his is a HUGE problem for land but it looks way more organized than models are giving it credit. Recon data into models will justify whether models were wrong, or whether they know what their forecasting
As of this writing, there is no recon planned for 92L tomorrow...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 04 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 05/1130Z,1730Z A. 05/2330Z, 06/0530Z
B. AFXXX 1909A HERMINE B. AFXXX 2009A HERMINE
C. 05/0900Z C. 05/2100Z
D. 38.3N 69.8W D. 38.7N 70.0W
E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1730Z E. 05/2300Z TO 06/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
HERMINE REMAINS A THREAT.
Quoting 229. wunderweatherman123:



It's not that his is a HUGE problem for land but it looks way more organized than models are giving it credit. Recon data into models will justify whether models were wrong, or whether they know what their forecasting
i agree, i wish recon would fly in to have a better idea of what's going on...i guess Guadalupe and Dominica will be our surface recon lol
Quoting 217. TheDeathStar:


i've done work for the them and the NWS, there's a just a lot of red tape when it comes to upgrading systems...what can you do...

No closed circulation, disorganized showers/storms, 99L sounds like your regular T-wave rolling across the Atlantic/Caribbean.
Accidental double post
Pretty amazing Rochester, NY has had 24 days above 90F and Buffalo, 60 miles west, has had 8. The power of the lake breeze.
Quoting 226. George1938:


it looks terrible actually, very limited and chaotic in terms of organization....

If it can make it to 80W its got a shot...
92L RIP thats all i can say on this is 92L RIP RIP RIP


happy bloging every one and dont for get 92L RIP RIP RIP
92l looks alright....for now.
238. Ed22
Quoting 202. Chicklit:

I am surprised to see 92L turning counter clockwise tonight.

The wave is moving 15-20 knots and so has the shear to its west move at about the same clip if not a little faster also west.
Getting very organized now, shear isn't going to destroyed.
Quoting 232. MrTornadochase:


No closed circulation, disorganized showers/storms, 99L sounds like your regular T-wave rolling across the Atlantic.

those regular t-waves can change and do a lot of damage with very little warning

Erika

not so impressive on satelite
Damage: Catastrophic


Wekiva Springs KFLLONGW19 About this PWS | Report
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Forecast for Longwood, FL > 28.699 -81.439 > 75 ft

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PWS viewed 22 times since September 1, 2016
Current Conditions Station reported 9 minutes ago
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Feels Like 73 °F
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Gusts 0.0 mph
Dew Point:
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Humidity:
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Pressure:
30.04 in
Quoting 222. kallenjrtx:

They work for Obama...which means not alot of action and all talk!! Lol


Snide political remarks have no place on this blog. They generally only lead to confrontation and away from weather-related discussions.
Quoting 239. TheDeathStar:


those regular t-waves can change and do a lot of damage with very little warning

Erika

not so impressive on satelite
Damage: Catastrophic





i just wish these islands had better warning...many are very poor
243. ackee
Vorticity with 92L has improved I think CMC was correct on how strong the system would be when it past the island base on how system is now
244. JLPR2
After the 00z Cimms update 92L is back to being misaligned from SW to NE at all levels.


So yep... and the decrease in convection and missing banding isn't a positive thing for development.
I'm out for the day, I'll give it a check tomorrow morning, goodnight!
Quoting 244. JLPR2:

After the 00z Cimms update 92L is back to being misaligned from SW to NE at all levels.


So yep... and the decrease in convection and missing banding isn't a positive thing for development.
I'm out for the day, I'll give it a check tomorrow morning, goodnight!
good night! stay safe in puerto rico
Quoting 235. Kowaliga:


If it can make it to 80W its got a shot...


ah, yes that is true.
Quoting 221. TheDeathStar:


budget problems, that's the problem with NHC...i really respect those working there, i just wish people in the islands had proper warning. Dominica is about to get hammered for the next few hours


Sad but true- 92L means business. And current severe weather conditions are NO JOKE- This system takes the Cake for the most prolonged impact of Tropical storm Conditions IMO -for quite a few years.
So far there's a contrast of winds as seen on our meteorological website - weather.gov.dm
Because of our mountainous interior there is often a variance for at least a couple of hours between the winds measured on the East coast (which normally gets the brunt) vrs the West coast. I am on the North east coast of the island and the assault has been unrelenting for the last few hours -steadily worsening for the last couple of hours now (gusts to 35 knots and possibly higher have been recorded at the Melville Hall site and environs)...mixed in with moderate to heavy showers and flashes of lightning (though no peals of thunder can be heard as yet from my location). By now many tree limbs have littered the landscape...still its hard to imagine -although this is only an invest that the worst is still ahead of us...
Its now night...which I dreaded- so far the power is holding well with the Odd flicker earlier, however, I'm not certain whether it will last into the thick of the worst of the conditions which is still to come...the winds continue to howl and bio/ green litter is fully wind borne with strong gusts. So far just one flicker in the power for the late evening, some parts of the island are without power due to the conditions so I'm very grateful. The North east grid seems to be very robust as with several other tropical systems before -we are usually unaffected for electrical power.
In speaking to friends on the West coast earlier- unfortunately but customarily, they seemed complacent as they have not yet seen the intensity of gusts and wind damage we are already seeing on the East coast. However, as the night wears on -Unfortunately it seems pretty guaranteed that things may take a turn for the worst & this brief respite on their side will end.

At the moment we remain under a flash flood watch -However, I think an 'early warning type of local advisory- Tropical storm Watch' would have served residents better re:- awareness and critical preparation... As I've said before -The pre-classification advisories would certainly be welcomed in the Lesser Antilles Islands where often there is sense of under-preparation and complacency surrounding approaching non-designated tropical disturbances that unfortunately often intensify near or over the islands -then subsequently deserving of Classification often sadly to the surprise/ shock of many residents. I was glad to see Jamaica/ Cayman put this into effect with 97L (Pre-Earl) and somewhat Puerto Rico for 99L (Pre- Hermine).
92L seems pretty set to be (Pre-Ian) -time will Tell...Beware of this potent system to all in its future path.

May God be with Us All!
Blessings!
Quoting 247. NatureIsle:



Sad but true- 92L means business. And current severe weather conditions are NO JOKE- This system takes the Cake for the most prolonged impact of Tropical storm Conditions IMO -for quite a few years.
So far there's a contrast of winds as seen on our meteorological website - weather.gov.dm
Because of our mountainous interior there is often a variance for at least a couple of hours between the winds measured on the East coast (which normally gets the brunt) vrs the West coast. I am on the North east coast of the island and the assault has been unrelenting for the last few hours -steadily worsening for the last couple of hours now (gusts to 35 knots and possibly higher have been recorded at the Melville Hall site and environs)...mixed in with moderate to heavy showers and flashes of lightning (though no peals of thunder can be heard as yet from my location). By now many tree limbs have littered the landscape...still its hard to imagine -although this is only an invest that the worst is still ahead of us...
Its now night...which I dreaded- so far the power is holding well with the Odd flicker earlier, however, I'm not certain whether it will last into the thick of the worst of the conditions which is still to come...the winds continue to howl and bio/ green litter is fully wind borne with strong gusts. So far just one flicker in the power for the late evening, some parts of the island are without power due to the conditions so I'm very grateful. The North east grid seems to be very robust as with several other tropical systems before -we are usually unaffected for electrical power.
In speaking to friends on the West coast earlier- unfortunately but customarily, they seemed complacent as they have not yet seen the intensity of gusts and wind damage we are already seeing on the East coast. However, as the night wears on -Unfortunately it seems pretty guaranteed that things may take a turn for the worst & this brief respite on their side will end.

At the moment we remain under a flash flood watch -However, I think an 'early warning type of local advisory- Tropical storm Watch' would have served residents better re:- awareness and critical preparation... As I've said before -The pre-classification advisories would certainly be welcomed in the Lesser Antilles Islands where often there is sense of under-preparation and complacency surrounding approaching non-designated tropical disturbances that unfortunately often intensify near or over the islands -then subsequently deserving of Classification often sadly to the surprise/ shock of many residents. I was glad to see Jamaica/ Cayman put this into effect with 97L (Pre-Earl) and somewhat Puerto Rico for 99L (Pre- Hermine).
92L seems pretty set to be (Pre-Ian) -time will Tell...Beware of this potent system to all in its future path.

May God be with Us All!
Blessings!


very well put!! stay safe!!
Quoting 248. Grothar:




lol i dont think this blog and handed other 99L like storm
Quoting 239. TheDeathStar:


those regular t-waves can change and do a lot of damage with very little warning

Erika

not so impressive on satelite
Damage: Catastrophic




Indeed, there's NOTHING Ordinary about such systems and their potential for damage is immense...we just Hope and pray that no extreme to extensive damage occurs from the passage of this system which is giving only Tropical storm conditions thus far without any let up.

God Bless!
252. JRRP7

this is not good for 92L
Quoting 231. TheDeathStar:

i agree, i wish recon would fly in to have a better idea of what's going on...i guess Guadalupe and Dominica will be our surface recon lol

By tomorrow the AF Hurricane Hunters can just look at it with a birding scope from their base in STX. :))
Quoting 203. win1gamegiantsplease:



If that was JRWeathermanFL I believe he left Cedar Key in time


Thanx giants....yeah, that wuz the fella
255. ackee
Quoting 249. TheDeathStar:


very well put!! stay safe!!
stay safe I agree 100% there needs to a special weather alert for system with tropical strom force winds issuing a flash flood watch for system like these are not sufficient
Quoting 250. thetwilightzone:



lol i dont think this blog and handed other 99L like storm


You win a cookie if you can remember what I named 92L 8 days ago.
Moving into Dominica

Quoting 258. Grothar:

Moving into Dominica




:\
Quoting 203. win1gamegiantsplease:



If that was JRWeathermanFL I believe he left Cedar Key in time


May have been me...I went down to see how people were preparing....They weren't...so damage is bad...we still have a lot of cleaning up to do...
But I live in Chiefland, 20 miles away in the same county. Not Tampa.
261. JRRP7
Quoting 258. Grothar:

Moving into Dominica



lol
looks like an eye
Quoting 259. CaribBoy:



:\

You complain more than me
Egadsoblob
Hurricane Hunters just detected a pressure of 997 mb in Hermine; looks like it may have slowed down and finally be making a turn to the north. Now the big question is, how close will it get to the coastline?
Quoting 259. CaribBoy:



:\



OHHH Caribboy mad because a cat 5 isn't doing loop DE loops around him stop wishcasting one day you will regret it storms are not all fun and games
267. JRRP7

strong winds
Just Ahead of what appears to be a type of CDO -Intense, sharp bouts of showers have begun...I'm having a premonition that more violent gusts may follow...I hope Not.
I just had to do a quick sweep a little over an hour ago due to the pile up of leaves steaming in on the semi sheltered back patio...it appears to be Getting a bit worse at the moment as I type, & I dread to look out again on the porch area.

My prayers are with those living in areas prone to landslides, falling rocks or flooding...night time will always complicate potential on the spur evacuation & relief /rescue efforts, hopefully it won't be necessary at all...

God Bless!
269. IDTH
Quoting 267. JRRP7:


strong winds

Wow. Antilles gonna deal some strong gusty winds.
Quoting 258. Grothar:

Moving into Dominica




Indeed, its coming in stealthily for the 'kill' and with strong winds...no stoppage of huffing and puffing...we hope and pray that by morning light not much would have been blown down...
Again it Only takes ONE! (Named or Unnamed)
Let's All be Prepared and Vigilant this season.

God Bless!
Rain bands :)

Radar



Anyone have any models showing where Hermine will be in the next week. Is she headed for the UK or France/Spain/Portugal?
Quoting 269. IDTH:


Wow. Antilles gonna deal some strong gusty winds.


It has been affecting the Central Lesser Antilles for sometime now today...apparently its about to get even worse for us in Dominica...we'll see what the next hour or so holds...

Blessings!
Quoting 266. James1981cane:




OHHH Caribboy mad because a cat 5 isn't doing loop DE loops around him stop wishcasting one day you will regret it storms are not all fun and games

I have a feeling he does not own his home and pay astronomical wind insurance... if he did, he would not want anything stronger than a nice rainy tropical wave to ever come near his home. Ericka was plenty for me last year, that B!+@# knocked down 4 beautiful trees in my yard. Thankfully they fell away from the house, but shade sure is scarce these days.
Personally, I really enjoyed watching Gaston... beautiful fish storm for a long time.
Quoting 268. NatureIsle:

Just Ahead of what appears to be a type of CDO -Intense, sharp bouts of showers have begun...I'm having a premonition that more violent gusts may follow...I hope Not.
I just had to do a quick sweep a little over an hour ago due to the pile up of leaves steaming in on the semi sheltered back patio...it appears to be Getting a bit worse at the moment as I type, & I dread to look out again on the porch area.

My prayers are with those living in areas prone to landslides, falling rocks or flooding...night time will always complicate potential on the spur evacuation & relief /rescue efforts, hopefully it won't be necessary at all...

God Bless!


Im looking at the radarand im getting flashbacks of Erika last yr. Very intense rain moving in at a very slow pace. We are going to get pounded.
No storm slamming into someone= dead blog.
Quoting 267. JRRP7:


strong winds
TS force
Quoting 266. James1981cane:




OHHH Caribboy mad because a cat 5 isn't doing loop DE loops around him stop wishcasting one day you will regret it storms are not all fun and games


No, I'm mad because 92L would bring more welcomed rains if the coc was closer.

It's not fair to paraphrase WKC.
Quoting 205. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not even way back when. There was a movie in the 90's called "Night of the Twisters" where they did the same thing. Not sure if it ended up sparing the main cast, as I haven't seen that film in years.


hey win1 - you have WU mail (or will shortly).
Quoting 264. SunnyDaysFla:

Egadsoblob


You win the Hurricane Cookie

281. SLU
Quoting 257. Grothar:



You win a cookie if you can remember what I named 92L 8 days ago.


Egadsablob (or something like that).
Quoting 278. CaribBoy:



No, I'm mad because 92L would bring more welcomed rains if the coc was closer.

It's not fair to paraphrase WKC.


I hope we will have decent rain, so a long time that the rain didn't fall for a full day. If they don't want it in Dominica, send it to the north, we wil welcome it :)
Quoting 268. NatureIsle:

Just Ahead of what appears to be a type of CDO -Intense, sharp bouts of showers have begun...I'm having a premonition that more violent gusts may follow...I hope Not.
I just had to do a quick sweep a little over an hour ago due to the pile up of leaves steaming in on the semi sheltered back patio...it appears to be Getting a bit worse at the moment as I type, & I dread to look out again on the porch area.

My prayers are with those living in areas prone to landslides, falling rocks or flooding...night time will always complicate potential on the spur evacuation & relief /rescue efforts, hopefully it won't be necessary at all...

God Bless!

in an about an hour the most intense part of the system will pass over Dominica, expect gust as a high 50 mph. Right now parts of the island are gusting to 38 mph



source http://www.weather.gov.dm/current-conditions
ASCAT found TS winds of up to 40 mph with 92L, so if it were to close off a circulation it would become TS Ian
Quoting 280. Grothar:



You win the Hurricane Cookie




Dang - popped on too late. Those look, well weird, but delicous
Quoting 272. AussieStorm:

Anyone have any models showing where Hermine will be in the next week. Is she headed for the UK or France/Spain/Portugal?


Quoting 129. LargoFl:

CMC has gone down to TS for 92L hitting TX/LA border area..still too far out in time...


Really? That's only a tropical storm? We might not even feel that in Houston.
Quoting 257. Grothar:



You win a cookie if you can remember what I named 92L 8 days ago.



i for get what you namd it do i still win my cookie ?
Nite everyone. Do me a favor. If CybrTeddy comes on, tell him I said that 92L is going through the Windward Passage. :)
I'm praying for my friends, family and indeed all inhabitants of Dominica at this moment. Can't help but think this is Erika pt.2 all over again... :-0
Quoting 288. pureet1948:



Really? That's only a tropical storm? We might not even feel that in Houston.


979 is at lest a cat 2 or 3 hurricane not no TS lol
Quoting 283. zicoille:



I hope we will have decent rain, so a long time that the rain didn't fall for a full day. If they don't want it in Dominica, send it to the north, we wil welcome it :)


Absolutely.

Maybe the coc will jump northward tonight, who knows xD

92L will bring some heavy rains to Dominica and some gusty winds thats it...Its not a TD or TS
Quoting 284. TheDeathStar:


in an about an hour the most intense part of the system will pass over Dominica, expect gust as a high 50 mph. Right now parts of the island are gusting to 38 mph



source http://www.weather.gov.dm/current-conditions


The weather stations at the 2 airports have stopped providing updates as at 8pm local time (almost 3 hrs ago). So there will be no new information from there until around 6am.
Quoting 289. thetwilightzone:




i for get what you namd it do i still win my cookie ?


OK, Taz. Since you've been around here longer than sliced bread, you deserve something.

notice that the wind shear 92L is heading at has dropped in intensity.  deep red pocket in the middle has turned orange to bright orange.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht& ;zoom=&time=



the 40 knot wind shear near the middle of the pocket has split in two.  there is instability to the north of the shear pocket .  i expect to see the shear possibly suppress growth and organization of 92L in the next two days but it may weaken enough to allow 92L to sneak through without as much deterioration as previously believed would happen. 


Quoting 293. CaribBoy:



Absolutely.

Maybe the coc will jump northward tonight, who knows xD




Heavy rain, heavy ts, all night long, and monday all day long ....
Quoting 280. Grothar:



You win the Hurricane Cookie



Thank you. So many---I will share.
Winds from the west reported on Le Lamentin, MartinNoique

Winds from the east reported on Roseau, Dominica

Goodnight now for real. I hope the islands, and Dominica in particular fare well. They had a rough go of it last time. Some very cold tops in this. Stay safe.

302. IDTH
Convection rebuilding around the center on Hermine

Quoting 301. Grothar:

Goodnight now for real. I hope the islands, and Dominica in particular fare well. They had a rough go of it last time. Some very cold tops in this. Stay safe.




If only those very cold tops were above 17N.....

Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe are very green already. Thus they don't need that rain.

Quoting 129. LargoFl:

CMC has gone down to TS for 92L hitting TX/LA border area..still too far out in time...
Should I buy some plywood now?? Looks like DOOM!! LOL I think I will hold off a few days and see if that 979mb ts is hitting Houston.  
306. Ed22
Quoting 302. IDTH:


The level vort is becoming better defined too.
92L's Low level center of circulation definitely seems to be well consolidated... More squalls are coming through at the moment -the worst still seems to come based on the radar/ satellite imagery...

Blessings!
Wow...... Winds have suddenly picked up. Nice gust short while ago. I swear i heard a tree crackle.
If you stop begging for a storm Caribboy maybe you'll be blessed with one
310. Ed22
Quoting 304. CaribBoy:



If only those very cold tops were above 17N.....

Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe are very green already. Thus they don't need that rain.
Organizing tropical wave is something to watch tomorrow and further on.
Quoting 284. TheDeathStar:


in an about an hour the most intense part of the system will pass over Dominica, expect gust as a high 50 mph. Right now parts of the island are gusting to 38 mph



source http://www.weather.gov.dm/current-conditions


We are bracing for that at the moment...very imminent. Hopefully it won't be much worse in any way.

Blessings!
Quoting 301. Grothar:

Goodnight now for real. I hope the islands, and Dominica in particular fare well. They had a rough go of it last time. Some very cold tops in this. Stay safe.




Thanks so much, we'll do our best to 'weather' this system and ride it out as safely as we can.

God Bless!
Quoting 273. NatureIsle:



It has been affecting the Central Lesser Antilles for sometime now today...apparently its about to get even worse for us in Dominica...we'll see what the next hour or so holds...

Blessings!


Hang in there! Stay safe!
316. Ed22
Quoting 307. NatureIsle:

92L's Low level center of circulation definitely seems to be well consolidated... More squalls are coming through at the moment -the worst still seems to come based on the radar/ satellite imagery...

Blessings!
Very well too, NHC will continue to undermined 92L anyway. Shear is decreasing where 92L is right now and as it continues to move slowly the low shear will move with it.
92L has slowed Quite a bit!
Quoting 291. LemieT:

I'm praying for my friends, family and indeed all inhabitants of Dominica at this moment. Can't help but think this is Erika pt.2 all over again... :-0


Thanks so much for the prayers...keep praying- it does change things, and is efficacious in ways we cannot always 'SEE'...We are praying and hoping for the best- Erika was mainly a water -flash flood disaster though...On the other hand, This system which is at least seemingly at Tropical Depression strength has lots of wind impact -the likes of which we have not seen in a while.

God Bless!
Quoting 315. stormpetrol:



Hang in there! Stay safe!

Thanks, so much, I will do just that...

Blessings!
Quoting 274. STX00841:


I have a feeling he does not own his home and pay astronomical wind insurance... if he did, he would not want anything stronger than a nice rainy tropical wave to ever come near his home. Ericka was plenty for me last year, that B!+@# knocked down 4 beautiful trees in my yard. Thankfully they fell away from the house, but shade sure is scarce these days.
Personally, I really enjoyed watching Gaston... beautiful fish storm for a long time.
I own my own home, and pay really high windstorm insurance, and I want more then a tropical rainstorm, Already been thru a Cat 5, and will probably experience a few more hurricanes, possibly this year. You have never lived until you been thru the worst nature can throw at you, nothing like it so far.
321. IDTH
Quoting 317. stormpetrol:

92L has slowed Quite a bit!

Not good
Quoting 301. Grothar:

Goodnight now for real. I hope the islands, and Dominica in particular fare well. They had a rough go of it last time. Some very cold tops in this. Stay safe.




To my extremely untrained eye, this looks like more than an invest to me. Sure looks to be getting it's act together...
It's a blast furnace down here
Not a cloud in the sky during peak hurricane season
Nothing going on guys things are weird
It's nasty and getting worse regardless of the empty stats nothing going on and overall no rain anywhere
In light of a few flickers I may have to suspend posts... Nonetheless, according to Radar -it appears that the Northern part of Martinique may be getting the most intense convective cloud tops at the moment... Also, I've been informed that the conditions along the West coast are beginning to get rather gusty...
Hopefully, there won't be much to report by morning's light.

God Bless!
Quoting 323. 19N81W:

It's a blast furnace down here
Not a cloud in the sky during peak hurricane season
Nothing going on guys things are weird
It's nasty and getting worse regardless of the empty stats nothing going on and overall no rain anywhere


Except on Dominica... :\
With this 5" today I'm up to around 8.4" for September.

Wekiva Springs KFLLONGW19 About this PWS | Report
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Forecast for Longwood, FL > 28.699 -81.439 > 75 ft

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PWS viewed 22 times since September 1, 2016
Current Conditions Station reported 9 minutes ago
75.1
Feels Like 73
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Gusts 0.0 mph
Dew Point:
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Pressure:
30.04 in
327. ackee
92L seem better on the vorticity map shear is weaking some ahead of the system cmc nail this so far the GFS EURo off but with share way it the the cmc victory could be short lived maybe
Quoting 27. tripleb:

What has happened to this site: http://moe.met.fsu.edu
Tonight all the model runs are updating except the
GFS. It's stuck at 090200z.
Quoting 323. 19N81W:

It's a blast furnace down here
Not a cloud in the sky during peak hurricane season
Nothing going on guys things are weird
It's nasty and getting worse regardless of the empty stats nothing going on and overall no rain anywhere


I hear you. I'm desperately hoping Hermine will land some rain on us. Here in SW Nova Scotia we are in a 100-year+ drought. We've had no substantial rain since May. A distant relative of mine, who is a cowman, was quoted in the news that he is already feeding his spring hay cut to his herd, since his pastures are dead and he has nothing else. No way to get more hay as all other operators are in the same boat. Wells are dry as far as 100km in each direction. He's also trucking in water from the town supply.
Quoting 321. IDTH:


Not good
The fast movement had been to the detriment of many a storm this season. Is this a trend or a temporary event?
I have a question about "surface winds". Do they mean (near) sea-level winds or actually on the surface of the earth. because if a storm that doesn't have sea level winds at 40mph hits the mountainous islands of the Caribbean isn't it probable that at 1200ft there is tropical storm force conditions, which on the mountain would be a surface wind? Even though an identical system in Florida would not be a Tropical Storm?
Quoting 330. unknowncomic:

The fast movement had been to the detriment of many a storm this season. Is this a trend or a temporary event?


It hasn't been just fast movement. Wind shear and dry sinking air in the mdr have been factors as well.
Quoting 257. Grothar:



You win a cookie if you can remember what I named 92L 8 days ago.
I think it was "Egadsablob"-do I get a cookie?
Hello from Arizona. I've been a lurker (99.99% of the time) here for years. Love the site.

Just wondering if anybody is interested in T.S. Newton. I read the NOAA analysis for Phoenix most days, and for a few days now they've been looking for a low pressure feature to develop off the coast of Mexico and come up towards us. Well, today it showed up on the map, and then quickly became a tropical storm. Thoughts? Interest? Might we see a significant weather event here? FYI, Phoenix is the most flood-prone area I've ever lived in. We get areal flood advisories for a half inch of rain. Think "parking lot-type runoff," even where there's no city. The desert is hardpan.

I'd love to see interest and comments here on this storm over the next couple of days. Thanks. Bob.
335. THL3
Quoting 309. rockcity340:

If you stop begging for a storm Caribboy maybe you'll be blessed with one


^^This^^
336. FOREX
92L already being flattened on its Western side by the shear. Looks like game over by Tuesday.
Quoting 287. Grothar:






Shes trying to find her way back home. Ahh they grow up so fast.
Quoting 322. cat6band:



To my extremely untrained eye, this looks like more than an invest to me. Sure looks to be getting it's act together...





Probly going to die soon, altough shear is also traveling westward w/ wave. It's a game of cat & mouse. If it hangs in the in-between... us in PR might see something. The Windward / Leewards are the ones that are getting all the action (and Florida, lol).
Quoting 329. bluenosedave:



I hear you. I'm desperately hoping Hermine will land some rain on us. Here in SW Nova Scotia we are in a 100-year drought. We've had no substantial rain since May. A distant relative of mine, who is a cowman, was quoted in the news that he is already feeding his spring hay cut to his herd, since his pastures are dead and he has nothing else. No way to get more hay as all other operators are in the same boat. Wells are dry as far as 100km in each direction. He's also trucking in water from the town supply.
My sympathies. And empathy. Sad thing, livestock in a drought. Hope you get the rain. Looks like a good chance ex-Hermine will bring some.
image added:

......
Quoting 336. FOREX:

92L already being flattened on its Western side by the shear. Looks like game over by Tuesday.



U sure? What are you basing that assumption on?
Quoting 339. serialteg:





Probly going to die soon, altough shear is also traveling westward w/ wave. It's a game of cat & mouse. If it hangs in the in-between... us in PR might see something. The Windward / Leewards are the ones that are getting all the action (and Florida, lol).


Only very little action in the N Leewards :(((
Was stopping in to mention Newton. Hurricane warning up for tip of Baja. And Newton's first cone looks like rain for the Southwest U.S.


From NHC 10 pm CDT discussion:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
Quoting 342. CaribBoy:



Only very little action in the N Leewards :(((


Seems to be more S Leewards right now / N Windwards.
Quoting 342. CaribBoy:



Only very little action in the N Leewards :(((
Trade winds are killing 92L, don't expect much from it.
Quoting 331. Methurricanes:

I have a question about "surface winds". Do they mean (near) sea-level winds or actually on the surface of the earth. because if a storm that doesn't have sea level winds at 40mph hits the mountainous islands of the Caribbean isn't it probable that at 1200ft there is tropical storm force conditions, which on the mountain would be a surface wind? Even though an identical system in Florida would not be a Tropical Storm?


I believe "surface" is considered 10m above sea level..Umm not sure if that answers the question or not
Nice rainfall gif! I reported 4" on last Thursday, and by that it verified. I think the winner (loser) was the Tampa area. Pretty wide area of 15"-20".
Guess it's time to some kind of dance or something. Don't really know what you do there to make it rain. Going off the deep end on this one, but maybe pray?

Quoting 323. 19N81W:

It's a blast furnace down here
Not a cloud in the sky during peak hurricane season
Nothing going on guys things are weird
It's nasty and getting worse regardless of the empty stats nothing going on and overall no rain anywhere
For him maybe, but what will happen later? Please no models, just look at wind maps, steering currents, and water vapor maps. Thanks :-)

Quoting 345. Gearsts:

Trade winds are killing 92L, don't expect much from it.
Correct on that, or about 30 feet in the US.

Quoting 346. yankees440:



I believe "surface" is considered 10m above sea level..Umm not sure if that answers the question or not
I can't totally see how Hermine can "redevelop" into anything much, or even sustain any strength, as the amount of very dry air moving into it seems to be totally massive right now.

Link

Jo

Well, how do you like them apples? The CMC's not excited about 92L right now. Take a look:

Finally home after a long week in Florida to intercept Hermine. Unfortunately, I only caught the western eyewall (even after moving east! >_<), but hey, 60 mph wind gusts are better than 0. :P

Coincidentally, Cantore was staying at the exact same marina in Carrabelle that I was, so I was able to get a picture with him; I'll probably post pictures of that after I get some sleep.

I was also able to meet Jedkins and SouthALWX, the latter of whom is now a meteorologist and obviously doesn't post here anymore; I've known both of them for an extremely long time.
Glad to see you back and safe, Kori, and it certainly sounds as if you had an interesting and different time of things there. :-)

Jo

Convection starting to be colder and wrapping around the center. Probably gonna become subtropical. It's outflow is creating a ET system which could do the same as Alex.
Quoting 348. swflurker:

pray




...>_>
358. vis0

Quoting 257. Grothar:



You win a cookie if you can remember what I named 92L 8 days ago.
its on the tip of my tongue...like i just read it ...i got it...

UnhuggableSnuffaluffagusBlobbbagus?

i wonder if the shortest bob name would be...we'll have to "wait at sea" if i may quote TWI.

As to 92L vs. Erika...Erika had a larger orange area (medium rainfall), while 92L seems to have a more concentrated red area on SAT imagery depicting moisture content. Sorry no imagery cannot find DVD that has 2015ERIKA. This might mean a worse local rainfall amount with 92L, so some areas might report "not so bad" other areas "worse" in comparing to 2015ERIKA.

DUCK! here comes some vis0 "words"   l - P  (gotta shave my eyebrowse  unibrowe)

The recent (pTwF)  TDepressions seem to create their own near-by interactive shear boundary ONCE THEY GET CLOSE to the independent shear boundaries.  An all-temperature shear (stop it Dakster not the detergent) as if it where the "ignition"  to create a TStorm's NOT "turning over" cause nino to neutral ENSOs shadow is still in the mix..   Watch closely as NHC mentions a TD has a good chance of spinning it appears as though the action of creating a spin instead turns into a counter shear and takes the "legs" out from under the to-be TS.   D a r n having trouble uploading AniGIF of 99L's adventure north of Cuba where 3 times it looked like 99L was about to revvs up but instead 99L exhales.
92L looks the same.
GASTON looked the same till it went under the "majekal" area and was heading with a direction (not going) towards zip 10016. Maybe the warmer waters and atmosphere is too slippery during neutral ENSO periods.  By slippery i mean TS  need some constant lite counter motion to build up on to at its start. Seems that within the atmosphere (during neutral ENSO) being just warmer with no mini cooler areas there is no cooler area to create a pushing upwards edge.   The cooler mini wedge being the person giving another person (other person being the starting spin)  a lift up onto a horse (horse being the higher mb that assist in sustaining  the coupled vertical rotation once the TS gets going..

Be alert anywhere heavy rain seems imminent.

359. vis0
Quoting 262. BaltimoreBrian:

►A strange thing happened in the stratosphere: A 60-year pattern in the stratosphere changes up

'Tug of war' keeps scientists working on storm tracks: The most important message of this paper is that scientists are currently unable to satisfactorily project the response of storm tracks to anthropogenic climate change

Hurricane Season Is Heating Up. So Is the Planet. Coincidence?
remember a few months ago me posting what if the only natural means for Earth to release "some" of its greenhouse gases was to fart...just saying (read article states a weird thing happened for several months) .. too bad no instruments in near space to take readings...?. Luckily for the Moon its made of cheese so any odor is masked. Watch some skeptics use my statement as a way that prevent aGW from building...sure reading fluctuate BUT with a rising greenhouse affect trend, sorry not that easy the longer one "passes the buck"...how do i know?
Man would have been sending rockets looking like big BEANO bottles years ago.

Back to Post Tropical Cyclone pre Extra-sub tropical HERMINE - thing Gothar might name "BlobisAgida" (see what i did warm core get blob at the end of the name, cold core or quasi warn get blob at the start of the name...(Grothar shaking head no in bkgnd) no not good oh well i tried.

Lord, I don't know what's happening with Hermine now. So much dry air and shear, and it just took a huge loop north, and even east of north at the end of it. And on one of the sites I use (an FSU site) that shows some of the computer models (the CMC, ecmwf-ensmean, ecmwf-oper, GFDL, GFS, and HWRF), all of those models... ALL of them... have Hermine coming all the way back to either the very tip of Long Island, or just *south* of it, and sitting there and spinning for about 60 hours before moving off or melting into oncoming weather!

Example of this site's 00Z GFS run... Link

If that happens, what an incredible mess that will be, depending on how strong Hermine remains, or becomes. :-(

Is anyone else seeing models that show that? And if so, why isn't the NHC changing their warnings on Hermine, as this potentially looks very bad, indeed?

Jo
Quoting 360. flibinite:

ALL of them... have Hermine coming all the way back to either the very tip of Long Island, or just *south* of it, and sitting there and spinning for about 60 hours before moving off or melting into oncoming weather!Jo

Wow, indeed. Quite a change! Here the Euro for Wednesday and Thursday:






UKMET

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 68.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is drifting toward the north near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest
is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight. A northeastward
motion is expected to begin by Tuesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength through
tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. A ship located about 180 miles north of the center
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
Thank you, barbamz, for posting the Euro... that's about all the major ones, yet the 5 AM NHC forecast track doesn't show it getting anywhere near that far west or north, in comparison to any of the models. What are they thinking there? I mean, if the models are somehow too far east by even 50 miles, they'll be a major, sub-tropical storm sitting 50 miles, or less, off the coast for two days, and they don't even have tropical storm watches posted for New York City, or any place in New Jersey (only eastern Long Island and New England)!

Do they think "Once burnt, twice shy"?

The only good thing about your Euro run is that they show Hermine at "only" 1001 mb, which isn't horrifically strong, obviously. But what if it somehow gets to, say, 992? Sigh... I hope the dry air just practically kills it, though the weaker it is, the more west it will be pushed. :-(

Jo
From the NHC discussion above...

"Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center
. A ship located about 180 miles north of the center
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h)."

The Euro shows the center of Hermine approximately 100 miles from Atlantic City in a bit less than 48 hours. I think the NHC should seriously start considering posting some tropical storm watches from NYC to Ocean City, MD by no later than 5 PM tomorrow, if all the models, taken together, still have any meaning, or validity, at all.

Jo
Cruise ship battles high seas, 100+ mph winds in Hermine remnants
By CBS North Carolina Published: September 4, 2016, 7:05 pm Updated: September 4, 2016, 9:47 pm

'#Seasick': Passengers Say Anthem of the Seas Is Sailing Through Hermine

GFS 06z for Tuesday


And for Wednesday, further weakening though.
good/morning.everyone....surfs/up..ecen.florida
367. MahFL
Wow the track for Hermine changed a lot over night, the GFS is nuts !
BTW: HWRF 00z with Newton in the Gulf of California on Wednesday:

looks like 2016 is winding down.... 8 named storms this year.... water is still warm but cooling down quickly and dry air looks to have taken over most of the atlantic and carib as seen on water vapor sattlelight
Quoting 347. swflurker:

Nice rainfall gif! I reported 4" on last Thursday, and by that it verified. I think the winner (loser) was the Tampa area. Pretty wide area of 15"-20".
yes I can attest to that 15 inches in my area geez.

Next recon under way into Hermine. Source.


Looks like 92L is weakening after a wet night for some (I hope everybody was safe!)
we have had only 2.89 inches of rain in daytona beach for the whole month of sept... 1.58 from hermine over 3 days

(Click to enlarge.) Interesting development.



Have a nice (holi-)day ...
been a while since we had a cyclone come up the bay of calif.
Quoting 372. mamothmiss:

we have had only 2.89 inches of rain in daytona beach for the whole month of sept... 1.58 from hermine over 3 days


We got 5" yesterday in altamonte springs. Luck of the draw when it comes to weather.
In wave shadow south of obx. Most other spots that have waves sideshore/onshore. Scrapped obx trip last night due to uncooperative winds. All clean south facing breaks are puny. FL/Bahamas may be the winner. Enjoy.

Quoting 366. islander101010:

good/morning.everyone....surfs/up..ecen.florida
Global models less excited on 92L and even less excited on upcoming activity. Very unfortunate
Quoting 377. wunderweatherman123:

Global models less excited on 92L and even less excited on upcoming activity. Very unfortunate


We could vary we'll see a early end too are hurricane season we have seen it happen many time be for. Hurricane season can some time end in. September regardless if we are at the peak of the season or not has vary unfavorable wind shear takes over and shut things down I seen it happen many many of times
Quoting 349. BaltimoreBrian:

'Rolling Coal' in Diesel Trucks, to Rebel and Provoke


Thick heads on some people!
Quoting 334. guaguapichincha:

Hello from Arizona. I've been a lurker (99.99% of the time) here for years. Love the site.

Just wondering if anybody is interested in T.S. Newton. I read the NOAA analysis for Phoenix most days, and for a few days now they've been looking for a low pressure feature to develop off the coast of Mexico and come up towards us. Well, today it showed up on the map, and then quickly became a tropical storm. Thoughts? Interest? Might we see a significant weather event here? FYI, Phoenix is the most flood-prone area I've ever lived in. We get areal flood advisories for a half inch of rain. Think "parking lot-type runoff," even where there's no city. The desert is hardpan.

I'd love to see interest and comments here on this storm over the next couple of days. Thanks. Bob.


Reading the NWS forecast for your neck of the woods, it appears as if the moisture from Newton may lead to an increased chance of Thunderstorms come Wednesday or Thhursday. The moisture is supposed to quickly lift off to the Northeast on Thursday. So, it appears as if it will boil down to just how far north any remains of Newton can penetrate into Arizonia before being ushered out stage right.
Quoting 379. CaribBoy:




No frowny-face, so I assume this is good?
Quoting 362. flibinite:

Thank you, barbamz, for posting the Euro... that's about all the major ones, yet the 5 AM NHC forecast track doesn't show it getting anywhere near that far west or north, in comparison to any of the models. What are they thinking there? I mean, if the models are somehow too far east by even 50 miles, they'll be a major, sub-tropical storm sitting 50 miles, or less, off the coast for two days, and they don't even have tropical storm watches posted for New York City, or any place in New Jersey (only eastern Long Island and New England)!

Do they think "Once burnt, twice shy"?

The only good thing about your Euro run is that they show Hermine at "only" 1001 mb, which isn't horrifically strong, obviously. But what if it somehow gets to, say, 992? Sigh... I hope the dry air just practically kills it, though the weaker it is, the more west it will be pushed. :-(

Jo

Yeah I noticed that. The hope would be enough people know it is sitting out there that if it began to pick up they would go into action realizing what it is. This morning it looks wonderful for the type of storm it is. Kinda like a jumbo-tron TD8.
384. Kyon5
Another system to watch after 92L.

cmc
ecmwf-ensmean
ecmwf-oper
gfs
They all show the same scenario of it intensifying and heading towards the NJ coast. . . Maybe the models are seeing something that the nhc does not see.
92L's chances have dropped to 10/20 as it enters the Caribbean. Not likely to do much until (unless) it enters the GOM. Although recent model runs do not show favorable conditions being present by the time it gets there.

Looks as if shear could be a problem throughout its lifetime.
.
Quoting 368. barbamz:

BTW: HWRF 00z with Newton in the Gulf of California on Wednesday:




That's making landfall in the same place that Maunel did in 2013.
6Z for Comparison
<
Quoting 384. Kyon5:

Another system to watch after 92L.


And some after that..

I see some DEEP CONVECTION!!!
On Tropical Storm Newton.
Quoting 385. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

cmc
ecmwf-ensmean
ecmwf-oper
gfs
They all show the same scenario of it intensifying and heading towards the NJ coast. . . Maybe the models are seeing something that the nhc does not see.



Models are seeing a Fujiwara dance between the surface low and the upper level low before they merge. where what will end up where after the tango is over is challenging to model, so the NHC is playing a wait-and-see approach. Given that this is expected to hang out for a while, they have a better idea of just how far it'll ultimately track west with additional observations, and time enough to issue appropriate warnings.
Quoting 391. 62901IL:

I see some DEEP CONVECTION!!!



On Newton - please specifiy exactly which system is being commented upon.
Quoting 393. daddyjames:



On Newton - please specifiy exactly which system is being commented upon.


Right. Post edited.
Quoting 379. CaribBoy:


it's getting pretty dark where i live too
is that ex gaston ? at 25N 35W



Quoting 385. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

cmc
ecmwf-ensmean
ecmwf-oper
gfs
They all show the same scenario of it intensifying and heading towards the NJ coast. . . Maybe the models are seeing something that the nhc does not see.



Euro shows significant weakening in 24 hours as the system nears the coast.
GFS shows significant weakening starting in about 12 hours and keeps the system weak (1007 mb - 1008 mb) as it nears the New England coast.

So I'm not sure what you're seeing in the models.
17.44.20N 64.41.49W 29.96 and rising, 78F 80% RH. ESE wind gusting to 42, in squall, 20 sustained @ 500' ASL. Heavy dust layer over St. Croix the past 16 hours. Trace of rain last 24 hours.
SJU Radar unavailable, station reports radar up but Web Site issues prevent access........
401. beell
Quoting 367. MahFL:

Wow the track for Hermine changed a lot over night, the GFS is nuts !


To a certain degree, the same synoptic as with "PTC Sandy". A vortex riding the eastern edge of a negative tilt trough and curling the disturbance back to the northwest. A slight difference here-with the mid & upper trough closing off and PTC Hermine rolling cyclonically around inside circumference of the cut-off.

This general theme of a stalling, looping storm has been part & parcel of all the models for quite some time. Yesterday, it did appear (to me) that the more eastward track might not allow the storm to be fully captured by the mid-upper system.

At least two independent components of motion to consider. "Nuts" is a good way to describe it. The scribbles on the water vapor loop do NOT represent a forecast track-just an attempt to illustrate a complicated set-up.



Quoting 398. Crucian:

17.44.20N 64.41.49W 29.96 and rising, 78F 80% RH. ESE wind gusting to 42, in squall, 20 sustained @ 500' ASL. Heavy dust layer over St. Croix the past 16 hours. Trace of rain last 24 hours.

Just got very windy here in the West End, skies are black and I hear the rain coming across the bush. Wind is gusting hard.
Bad bad bad if 92L lives past the shear.


Quoting 384. Kyon5:

Another system to watch after 92L.


AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 145N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV

Good Morning Everyone,
I wanted to say the Blog sure is slow. Almost as
slow as a March or April kind of Blog....
Anyway we all need to keep an eye on 92L, you
just never know what kind of storm it may or may
not form.... j/s

Happy Labor Day to you all

Taco :o)
Looks like T.S. Newton will significantly enhance monsoonal rains over the Southwest U.S. Thankfully Hermine moved further East before stalling. Forecasters not too confident in 92-L due to lack of model support. Still have to watch it till its gone...
Quoting 407. taco2me61:

Good Morning Everyone,
I wanted to say the Blog sure is slow. Almost as
slow as a March or April kind of Blog....
Anyway we all need to keep an eye on 92L, you
just never know what kind of storm it may or may
not form.... j/s

Happy Labor Day to you all

Taco :o)
Happy Labor Day to you! I don't like the track of 92 but it seems that shear will keep the hound at bay.
Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters [an error occurred while processing this directive]

North Atlantic [an error occurred while processing this directive]
East Pacific [an error occurred while processing this directive]
Central Pacific [an error occurred while processing this directive]

Seems as if GOES has taken Labor Day off for now. Happy Labor Day everyone!

Happy Labor Day! 58F in inland Orange County, CA, as fall arrives early year. Great day for Disneyland with the girls.
Ah, problem seems to be fixed - guess no time off for them:

Quoting 405. Grothar:




I'm 85 miles inland from Atlantic City right on 40N and high clouds are already streaming back in from the east..
Hermine didn't take all the moisture up the East coast. A weak trough over the North Gulf is still producing rains and is somewhat connected to Hermine as seen in WV Loops.
Quoting 401. beell:



To a certain degree, the same synoptic as with "PTC Sandy". A vortex riding the eastern edge of a negative tilt trough and curling the disturbance back to the northwest. A slight difference here-with the mid & upper trough closing off and PTC Hermine rolling cyclonically around inside circumference of the cut-off.

This general theme of a stalling, looping storm has been part & parcel of all the models for quite some time. Yesterday, it did appear (to me) that the more eastward track might not allow the storm to be fully captured by the mid-upper system.

At least two independent components of motion to consider. "Nuts" is a good way to describe it. The scribbles on the water vapor loop do NOT represent a forecast track-just an attempt to illustrate a complicated set-up.





I like your non-track better than NHC. Its currently moving north per their headline. Why is the next forecast point due west?


418. beell
Quoting 406. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 92, 2016090512, , BEST, 0, 145N, 652W, 35, 1009, WV




You can kind of see what's happening for now. Convection blooms on the wave axis than shears off to the north.
850 vort centered on the axis in the CIMSS product.


92L-the wave.

Quoting 418. beell:



You can kind of see what's happening for now. Convection blooms on the wave axis than shears off to the north.
850 vort centered on the axis in the CIMSS product.


92L-the wave.




mid-level shear undercutting the storms as they form?

Quoting 416. canehater1:

Hermine didn't take all the moisture up the East coast. A weak trough over the North Gulf is still producing rains and is somewhat connected to Hermine as seen in WV Loops.


That's the very reason why we are getting rain today.... Hermine left a
"Ton" of energy down here in the Gulf and "If" we get a tropical wave
here it could become a storm.... Now I'm not saying we are or not, but
from a "Untrained Eye" sure looks that way.... j/s

Taco :o)
421. beell
Quoting 417. winter123:


I like your non-track better than NHC. Its currently moving north per their headline. Why is the next forecast point due west?





Check out the little black, dashed line originating from the approximate surface center. It is not intended to be a track forecast, but the arrow is pointing west. PTC Hermine is being entrained in the northwest flow on the eastern side of the mid-level trough. Hope that makes some sense. Eventually, the whole mess begins to move out into the westerlies and leaves the western Atlantic.

Think of a marble rolling around the inside of a bowl. The bowl is the mid-upper system, the marble is our friend and life-long companion-PTC Hermine.
Hermine appears to be moving slowly NNW while multiple Vorti swirl around the LLC.


Loop
Anyone enjoying Labor Day on Nantucket or Martha's Vinyard is getting an extended Vacation, as Ferry Service is cancelled.
424. beell
Quoting 419. daddyjames:



mid-level shear undercutting the storms as they form?




Something like that. Sounds good to me! Also see an outflow or two north of the axis, south of PR.
Quoting 420. taco2me61:



That's the very reason why we are getting rain today.... Hermine left a
"Ton" of energy down here in the Gulf and "If" we get a tropical wave
here it could become a storm.... Now I'm not saying we are or not, but
from a "Untrained Eye" sure looks that way.... j/s

Taco :o)


Some of the ingredients are certainly there, but ridging is building in for the latter part of the week from the North and west. I can't remember such an extended period of PW values over 2 inches here in the Gulf South.
Quoting 423. Methurricanes:

Anyone enjoying Labor Day on Nantucket or Martha's Vinyard is getting an extended Vacation, as Ferry Service is cancelled.


Lotsa indoor games today, I suppose.
Quoting 425. canehater1:



Some of the ingredients are certainly there, but ridging is building in for the latter part of the week from the North and west. I can't remember such an extended period of PW values over 2 inches here in the Gulf South.


I agree and will welcome the ridge building back in.
Although it's going to beautiful it's also going to be
"Hot" this week....

Taco :o)
Unfortunately, this does ring true for many of us here.
From a blog: Paul Douglas on Weather
Posted in the Minnesota StarTribune, August 23rd.
Drying Out and Cooling Off - Growing Hurricane Paranoia Across Florida and Gulf Coast

I don't know much. Just ask my wife. But here is what I suspect: 1). Skies will clear today with a cooling trend into Friday morning. 2). Sunday looks like the nicer, drier day of the weekend. And I will never (ever) own real estate along the Gulf Coast. Ever. Because I'd wind up spending way too much time watching The Weather Channel. Worrying about massive, Texas-size storms with names.

Life is too short.
Quoting 428. daddyjames:

Unfortunately, this does ring true for many of us here. From a blog: Paul Douglas on Weather posted in the Minnesota StarTribune
Drying Out and Cooling Off - Growing Hurricane Paranoia Across Florida and Gulf Coast

I don't know much. Just ask my wife. But here is what I suspect: 1). Skies will clear today with a cooling trend into Friday morning. 2). Sunday looks like the nicer, drier day of the weekend. And I will never (ever) own real estate along the Gulf Coast. Ever. Because I'd wind up spending way too much time watching The Weather Channel. Worrying about massive, Texas-size storms with names.

Life is too short.

especially with the topography of the Gulf Coast, near the water can be dangerous in a storm. Unlike along the West Coast or New England where you can be very close to the ocean but well above it.
For example my family and I once rented a house on York Beach in Maine, the house was maybe a 5 minute walk from the ocean, but it was probably 55 feet or so above sea level even a Katrina-like surge wouldn't effect the house.
Is Recon going into Newton today?
Yikes! and I guess the reason these spaghetti models take 92L more north versus the NHC "development cone" is that in the latter case they are assuming it doesn't develop into a deeper storm???
Pure hostility ahead for 92-L


Link

434. beell
Based on the 8AM & 10AM (EDT) recon center fixes, northwest movement for PTC Hermine @ 12-14 knots.
998 mb
10AM: 38.7N 68.85W
Quoting 422. nrtiwlnvragn:

Hermine appears to be moving slowly NNW while multiple Vorti swirl around the LLC.


Loop


The EURO will be bringing Hermine much further west than the earlier models. As a matter of fact, some of the models strengthen it a little more than before. I just saw the news and they reported that Hermine had moved further east, but I believe they do not have the full information. I do expect conditions to begin deteriorating and be close to what was forecast a few days ago. It appears a great deal of convection is building to the west and it might be possible that Hermine might get an upgrade later today.




Quoting 382. daddyjames:



No frowny-face, so I assume this is good?


Yes it is, but we need plenty plenty more !
Quoting 435. Grothar:



The EURO will be bringing Hermine much further west than the earlier models. As a matter of fact, some of the models strengthen it a little more than before. I just saw the news and they reported that Hermine had moved further east, but I believe they do not have the full information. I do expect conditions to begin deteriorating and be close to what was forecast a few days ago. It appears a great deal of convection is building to the west and it might be possible that Hermine might get an upgrade later today.





It is like the Blizzard of 2015, it missed NYC, but it is going to nail New England.
You would think that with the coverage of these watches and warnings, the Government of Mexico is overreacting to this.

Newton's Wind Field and Watches and Warnings.


Javier's for comparision.

Why is the coverage so large?
Quoting 384. Kyon5:

Another system to watch after 92L.




Hopefully it won't be a fish. Hopefully it will go towards the N Leewards.

It will be a weak system anyways so what's the problem? lol
Quoting 435. Grothar:



The EURO will be bringing Hermine much further west than the earlier models. As a matter of fact, some of the models strengthen it a little more than before. I just saw the news and they reported that Hermine had moved further east, but I believe they do not have the full information. I do expect conditions to begin deteriorating and be close to what was forecast a few days ago. It appears a great deal of convection is building to the west and it might be possible that Hermine might get an upgrade later today.







I hope she brings us some rain up here, and not too much beach erosion down south.
Quoting 440. VermontStorms:



I hope she brings us some rain up here, and not too much beach erosion down south.
Eastern MA/Southern NH really need the rain.


Good rain !
Quoting 415. Gator13126:



I'm 85 miles inland from Atlantic City right on 40N and high clouds are already streaming back in from the east..


Expect more, depending on how far west it moves.
Thought this was interesting. From Ships Diagnostics for 92LLink
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Link

Heavy rain xD
Keep an eye on the wave in the far east Atlantic. I have designated this as Possiblyoblob. I wouldn't be surprised if the Doc or Mr. Henson mention this.

MONTAUK POINT - 23 NM SSW of Montauk Point, NY
40.694 N 72.048 W






NANTUCKET 54NM Southeast of Nantucket
40.503 N 69.248 W


Quoting 445. CaribBoy:

Link

Heavy rain xD


Happy for you CaribBoy! 92L wasn't a bust for you.
GFS shows next wave recurving east of us, while 92L had a really hard time to gain 0.5 degree N. :\\
Quoting 410. Grothar:




It needs to develop after 55W if it really wants to go NW
Quoting 446. Grothar:

Keep an eye on the wave in the far east Atlantic. I have designated this as Possiblyoblob. I wouldn't be surprised if the Doc or Mr. Henson mention this.




If it's going to be a fish, no need to watch it seriously ;)
Quoting 448. SunnyDaysFla:



Happy for you CaribBoy! 92L wasn't a bust for you.


:)
Good morning all and happy Labor Day to those in America! 92L sure is cruising along!
although wind shear is still strong ahead of 92L it has backed off dramatically compared to yesterday.

the wind shear is collapsing both from the south where 92L is progressing and from instability to the north of the shear.

only time will tell but the wind shear may not destroy 92L as thought yesterday.
And then no ridging for the CATL wave.... fish :\
Quoting 447. nrtiwlnvragn:

MONTAUK POINT - 23 NM SSW of Montauk Point, NY
40.694 N 72.048 W






NANTUCKET 54NM Southeast of Nantucket
40.503 N 69.248 W






One important fact missing from the graph. The DIRECTION of the wind (Nantucket) the last two hours is now WEST.
Quoting 437. Methurricanes:

It is like the Blizzard of 2015, it missed NYC, but it is going to nail New England.


It was then at 11 am that I strolled outside. The clouds had thickened and a brisk 10mph wind rustled my sleeve. I then proceeded to become greatly startled.

But in seriousness it is backing to the NW now and with how the error has thus far been going I think those TS Warnings should extend up to Gloucester personally.
Hopefully a ridge will come in time to turn the new wave more W.
The most convection I have seen all summer over Africa. Looks like 7-10N waves.
Quoting 456. CaptainOCaptain:




One important fact missing from the graph. The DIRECTION of the wind (Nantucket) the last two hours is now WEST.


Good catch, it is strange since Recon is reporting ENE in that same general area. Direction from Recon is at flight level however.


Time: 15:31:00Z
Coordinates: 40.550N 70.300W
Acft. Static Air Press: 812.1 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,869 m (6,132 ft)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 58° at 65 kts (From the ENE at 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 11.5°C* (52.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 kts (77.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 kts (46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr
Quoting 461. hydrus:


Expecting ridge weakness? Water trail looks like OTS.
Morning all.

Looking a bit more tropical on sats. I took a gander at the models and noticed they had it swinging in closer to Long Island/Cape Cod. Nantucket had a 43 mph gust earlier when I looked. Appears some of the warnings weren't so unwarranted, as a few here had lamented.

Patience!

Happy Labor Day everyone!!! Not a cloud in the sky, here. Hot!
Quoting 441. Methurricanes:

Eastern MA/Southern NH really need the rain.


I think all of New England does.
Well, I see the models are in agreement with one another again. As in none of them know where the heck 92L is going, but they are going to post something because they can. None sure I can survive another 2 weeks or more like Hermine! Although, when she did finally get her "stuff" together, she has proven to be wicked even as a Cat 1 and TS and she is still going strong! The little tropical wave that thought she could...and DID! Happy Labor Day to all.
467. beell




Hermine has to centers..

Quoting 466. CitikatzSouthFL:

Well, I see the models are in agreement with one another again. As in none of them know where the heck 92L is going, but they are going to post something because they can. None sure I can survive another 2 weeks or more like Hermine! Although, when she did finally get her "stuff" together, she has proven to be wicked even as a Cat 1 and TS and she is still going strong! The little tropical wave that thought she could...and DID! Happy Labor Day to all.
yes hopefully 92L goes somewhere else
470. beell
Quoting 468. hydrus:

Hermine has to centers..




nrt saw that this morning as well. Awesome!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 421. beell:



Check out the little black, dashed line originating from the approximate surface center. It is not intended to be a track forecast, but the arrow is pointing west. PTC Hermine is being entrained in the northwest flow on the eastern side of the mid-level trough. Hope that makes some sense. Eventually, the whole mess begins to move out into the westerlies and leaves the western Atlantic.

Think of a marble rolling around the inside of a bowl. The bowl is the mid-upper system, the marble is our friend and life-long companion-PTC Hermine.

For the record I was talking about NHC track. It still shows west despite continued northern movement.