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High Winds From Hermine Lash Mid-Atlantic, Drive Dangerous Storm Surge

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:48 PM GMT on September 03, 2016

Tropical Storm Warnings were flying from northern North Carolina to New York and Connecticut late Saturday morning as Tropical Storm Hermine emerged over the waters off the coast of North Carolina. Hermine rolled off the Outer Banks of North Carolina near Nags Head around 8:00 am EDT Saturday, moving east-northeast at 15 mph, and was located about 80 miles southeast of Norfolk, VA as of the 11:00 am EDT advisory from NHC. Hermine completed the transition from a tropical storm to an extratropical storm Saturday morning, and is now officially called Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine. A post-tropical cyclone is a storm that derives its energy from atmospheric dynamics and contrasts rather than from the heat of the ocean. In a post-tropical cyclone, the circulation is often tilted northward from the surface to upper levels, resulting in an asymmetric comma shape typical of a mid-latitude winter storm. Radar and satellite imagery shows this configuration in place for Hermine: the strongest thunderstorms on Saturday morning were more than 200 miles northeast of Hermine’s low-level center. The new version of Hermine is just as powerful as the old one, though, with top winds now back up to 65 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out more than 200 miles northeast of Hermine’s center. Duck Pier, NC, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph gusting to 73 mph.


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of Hermine taken at 12:30 pm EDT September 3, 2016. At the time, Hermine was a post-tropical cyclone with top sustained winds of 70 mph. Note the asymmetric shape of the storm, with a comma-like configuration, instead of circular. Image credit: NASA.

Some of Hermine’s top winds thus far, courtesy of weather.com:

    •    79 mph at C-Tower, south of St. George Island, south of Apalachicola at an elevation of 115 feet, with sustained winds of 61 mph late Thursday
    •    75 mph early Thursday evening near Indian Shores Beach in western Pinellas County, Florida
    •    67 mph in Keaton Beach, Florida
    •    64 mph gusts at Florida State University's football stadium in Tallahassee 
    •    62 mph at Elizabeth City, North Carolina, early Saturday morning.
    •    62 mph at St. Petersburg's Albert Whitted Airport and near Clearwater Beach on Thursday evening.
    •    59 mph near Folly Island, South Carolina on Friday evening.
    •    58 mph near Dewees Island, South Carolina with sustained winds of 40 mph on Friday afternoon.
    •    55 mph at Norfolk International Airport, Virginia, Saturday morning.
    •    54 mph at Shaw Air Force Base.
    •    53 mph in Apalachicola, Florida on Thursday evening and in Brunswick, Georgia on Friday afternoon.
    •    52 mph at Clearwater Beach, Florida later Thursday evening, and a 51 mph gust at Cedar Key, Florida.
    •    51 mph at Virginia Beach, Virginia, early Saturday morning.
    •    49 mph in Charleston, South Carolina on Friday evening.


Figure 2. Residents look at Alligator Point Road, which collapsed during the storm surge from Hurricane Hermine at Alligator Point, Florida on September 2, 2016. (Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images) 

Hermine brings heavy rains
Hermine is being fed by unusually high amounts of atmospheric water vapor, and continues to dump very heavy rains along its path. According to the 11 am Saturday NOAA Storm Summary, the top rain amount in North Carolina was 13.34” at Cedar Island; South Carolina’s highest was 9.93” at Myrtle Beach AFB, and Georgia’s highest amount was 6.37” at Alma. Hermine had already dumped 3.95” on Virginia Beach, Virginia, with more rain to come.


Figure 3. Observed rainfall for the 1-day period ending at 8 am EDT Saturday, September 3, 2016. Hermine brought 24-hour rainfall amounts of 6+ inches (pink colors) to coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina. The highest storm-total rainfall amounts over a 4-day period were near the Tampa Bay, Florida region; 18.89” fell at Baskin and 15.27” at Largo, just north of St. Petersburg. Hermine’s rains mostly missed Florida’s Lake Okeechobee region; on Thursday, the Army Corps of Engineers decided that the lake’s vulnerable dike is safe at the current water level, and elected not to increase the amount of polluted water released from the lake into its outflow canals that lead to the ocean. In May and June, large releases of Lake Okeechobee water to relieve pressure on the dike caused massive algae blooms and serious water quality issues along both coasts of Florida. Image credit: NWS/AHPS.

Hermine’s strange journey ahead: a unusual danger for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast
Despite its new classification as a post-tropical system, Hermine will continue to be tracked through advisories by the National Hurricane Center until it no longer poses a threat to land. They will have a difficult job: over the next few days, Hermine will take one of the oddest and most unsettling trajectories in memory for a named storm along the U.S. East Coast. The upper-level trough that pulled Hermine northeastward is now leaving it behind, and steering currents will become very weak. As a result, Hermine will spin for several days in the region east of the Mid-Atlantic and south of New England, gradually working its way northward. Because Hermine will be slowing to a crawl close to the north edge of the Gulf Stream on Sunday and Monday, it will be near or atop sea-surface temperatures of 26-28°C (79-82°F), which is at least 2°C above average and more than warm enough to support tropical development. Instability in the atmosphere will be enhanced by some residual cold air aloft, a fragment of the departing trough. As a result of all this, Hermine is likely to re-organize from Sunday into Monday into a more symmetric, warm-core system, perhaps embedded within the weak upper low fragment.

It’s unclear whether Hermine will again be technically classified as a tropical storm or hurricane rather than a post-tropical storm, but that point is moot in terms of impact. Computer models are near-unanimous in bringing Hermine’s top winds up to or above hurricane strength for at least a few hours on Sunday night or Monday. NHC’s official outlook at 11 am NHC outlook puts Hermine at minimal hurricane strength from Sunday night to Tuesday morning. Hermine’s peak winds are expected to remain stronger than their current 65 mph until at least Wednesday.

Our best track models--the GFS, Euro, and UKMET--agree that Hermine will remain within about 150 to 250 miles of the coast till at least the middle of next week before a more definitive move out to sea. Because steering currents are so weak, we cannot yet be certain how long Hermine will linger nearby. We can expect some erratic small-scale motion, perhaps including one or more clockwise or counterclockwise loops, especially from Sunday through Tuesday. Any of these small jogs might bring Hermine closer to, or farther from, the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastline. Fortunately, there is no sign of any large-scale upper-level feature that would pull Hermine well inland, and eventually the polar jet stream will dip far enough south to haul Hermine out to sea.


Figure 4. Forecast from the 06Z Saturday run of the GFS model (one of our three most reliable track models) for the surface center of Hermine. From top left to lower right, the valid time periods are 00Z (8:00 pm EDT) Saturday, September 3, through 00Z Thursday, September 8. Wind speeds are shown in knots; add 15% for miles per hour. Green colors denote winds of at least tropical storm strength (34 knots or 39 mph); purple colors denote minimal hurricane strength (65 knots or 74 mph). Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Major storm surge flooding expected along mid-Atlantic, Northeast coast
The next phase of Hermine could easily be more destructive than its Florida landfall. An unusually prolonged period of high surf, beach erosion, and storm-surge flooding will unfold along the coastline from Delaware to New York. In some places, the peak surge could be comparable to that experienced during Hurricane Irene in 2011, with at least some level of high water persisting for days on end. There is very high confidence on the long duration of this event, which raises the odds of back-bay flooding that could intensify over several days as water is continually pushed inland. Multiple days of strong wind and heavy surf are likely to produce enormous amounts of damaging beach erosion.

One complicating factor with Hermine is that the amount of coastal flooding may end up far out of proportion to what local weather conditions would lead you to expect. The water will be driven into the coast mainly by the processes unfolding offshore. There will likely be a sharp cutoff to the heaviest rain and highest wind associated with Hermine (see Figure 5 below). Outside of this zone, it could be merely breezy and partly cloudy; inside it, you could experience torrential rain and tropical storm-force wind. The transition zone may wobble inland or offshore at times, making it hard to gauge exactly what to expect at any given spot. Tourists and residents should keep this nontraditional storm behavior in mind. It would be prudent to avoid flood-prone areas and roadways near the coast even if the weather doesn’t seem particularly threatening. Rip currents will add to the danger of the rough surf, making this a very good Labor Day weekend to stay off the beach. Unlike most tropical and winter storms, the storm surge and associated flooding may persist for several days in some areas.

Shown below are NWS predictions as of midday Saturday for the potential peak storm surge levels over the next several days. The total water height above sea level, called the storm tide, will vary up or down from these numbers by several feet depending on whether the peak falls at high vs. low tide. For the latest on potential impacts, be sure to check local statements compiled on the NHC website.

Southside Hampton Roads, VA: 5.5’ to 7.0’, with ocean waves greater than 15’ and bay waves of 6-9’
Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, VA: 5 - 5.5’, with 3-5’ waves on James River
Atlantic City, NJ:  2’ - 4’
Sandy Hook, NJ:  2’ - 4’
Coastal New York and Long Island Sound, including parts of Connecticut and New Jersey: Significant surge with moderate to major coastal flooding (details to come)
Coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts: 1’ - 2’ feet, except 2’ - 3’ possible from Westerly to Point Judith, RI


Figure 5. Projected 5-day precipitation totals from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Saturday, September 3, to Thursday, September 8. A huge contrast is evident between the torrential amounts expected near the center of Hermine--where more than 20” of rain could fall--and the much lesser amounts over most inland areas. A small nudge in Hermine’s notion could bring significantly heavier amounts to the coastline than shown here. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

What’s next in the Atlantic?
We’re two weeks into the peak part of the Atlantic hurricane season, with the half-way point coming up on September 11. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are at their maximum now, basin-wide wind shear is at its minimum and the African monsoon is at its peak, so we should expect near-average activity with one or two more named storms in the coming two weeks. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently weak, and will not act to discourage Atlantic tropical storm formation, like it was doing in mid-August, when it was centered in the Western Pacific. The only major impediment for tropical storm formation would seem to be a higher than average amount of dry air coming off the coast of Africa for this time of year.


Figure 6. MODIS visible satellite image of 92L taken on Saturday morning September 3, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite images show that shower activity has increased over the past day in association with a large tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 92L). However, the tropical wave was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert, which was slowing development and making 92L’s thunderstorms disorganized. The 8 am EDT Saturday SHIPS model forecast for 92L shows low wind shear and warm SSTs for the next four days--favorable for development--as it moves west at 15 - 20 mph, but shows the air surrounding 92L will grow even drier as it enters the eastern Caribbean, which should keep any development slow to occur. The latest 0Z Saturday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and be near Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday. By Wednesday, when 92L will enter the Western Caribbean, it will find a moister environment and have more potential for development. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC bumped up their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 20% and 30%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 92L on Monday afternoon, if necessary.

A tropical wave expected to leave the coast of Africa on Tuesday could develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Saturday run of the UKMET model. The 0Z Saturday run of the European model and 06Z Saturday run of the GFS model did not develop this tropical wave over the next five days, but did show development after that time. The NASA/GMAO model predicted that Sahara Desert dust and dry air machine would be moderately active during the week, and this new tropical wave will likely have its development hindered by dry air.

Lester cruising well north of Hawaii
Hawaii’s prolonged two-part threat of the past week from Hurricane Madeline and Hurricane Lester is finally winding down. As of 11 am EDT (5 am HST) Saturday, Lester was located 260 miles east of Honolulu, with top sustained winds down to 100 mph. As expected, Lester is tracking parallel to the islands on a west-northwest track, and it appears that the model consensus was on target in keeping that track far enough north of the islands (about 100-150 miles) to avoid major trouble. The Hurricane Watch for the islands has now been cancelled, but dangerous surf is still expected.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
Sea Wall Waves 2
Sea Wall Waves 2
The surge reached 3 feet here (Hampton VA) today at high tide with a total tide of approx 6.2 ft above mllw. Sandy was approx. 6.6 ft, Irene 7.2, Isabel close to 8ft here. Another bullet dodged.
Hermine Storm Damage- a century old tree in Oaklawn Cemetry-Plant City did not fare well
Hermine Storm Damage- a century old tree in Oaklawn Cemetry-Plant City did not fare well
Hermine Storm Damage
TS Hermine
TS Hermine
Taken on Saint Simons Island as the tropical storm Hermine was approaching the coast of Georgia.
TS Hermine
TS Hermine
The first shot I took yesterday morning when the storm was still moving into our area here on the coast of Georgia.Taken from Neptune Park on Saint Simons Island, GA looking out onto the sound.

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Kyon5
Quoting 490. CaribBoy:



That's probably why Gonzalo formed in October 2014...

That's also probably why Rafael formed in October 2012...

October is our new September.
It seems like a 2-year pattern. Maybe October 2016? ;)




No longer has the L dissipating.
This is Atlantic launch control.

T minus 12 hours and counting till designation.


92L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Click image for loop.




🌊 🌎
Quoting 501. Kyon5:

It seems like a 2-year pattern. Maybe October 2016? ;)


Hopefully :))
Currently very light shear in the western Caribbean and east GOM. Subject to change, though.




The Atlantic has just chambered another round.



508. JLPR2
92L's not looking bad, LLC seems to be a bit north of 14n.

Quoting 503. Patrap:

This is Atlantic launch control.

T minus 12 hours and counting till designation.


92L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Click image for loop.




🌊 🌎


This time of year 92L should move more WNW or even NW where it is located (Marilyn 95)

But no, we have another stupid westward moving trash.
do we have a closed low with 92L


if so 92L is vary closed too a Tropical storm this AM and is at lest a Tropical Depression
Quoting 502. stormwatcherCI:





No longer has the L dissipating.


Hey how are you how is things up your side of the island


Yeah 92L we need to watch this one closely



Quoting 496. cat6band:



WKC, this is one that you may really have to watch....finally. It's getting "that look"...which could spell trouble maybe sooner than later. Looks like it will be a Caribbean Cruiser for sure.


Yes indeed

Quoting 495. kallenjrtx:

Too many people give up quickly and ready to throw in the towel on 92L. To me it's doing very well and survived days of going through hostile very dry atmosphere over Atlantic. Now it's near the islands and looking very good and appears to be forming a LLC or trying to. The wind shear is there to the west but is also moving west so I think 92L will be just fine....it's gotten past the worst unless it plows into the big islands or yucatan. I bet the NHC will increase odds soon enough. Being in Texas I am going to be watching close on this one..."I" storms bring back memories....IKE


Agreed
Being in Cayman I'm watching this one closely "I" storms bring back memories...IVAN

Quoting 485. ackee:

great point


Yep I hope your watching this one closely too
Quoting 508. JLPR2:

92L's not looking bad, LLC seems to be a bit north of 14n.




LLC not closed yet but it is a closing LLC

Quoting 510. thetwilightzone:

do we have a closed low with 92L


if so 92L is vary closed too a Tropical storm this AM and is at lest a Tropical Depression


It's closing off but it's not closed just yet soon to do so I'd think

Quoting 511. wunderkidcayman:



Hey how are you how is things up your side of the island


Yeah 92L we need to watch this one closely





Yes indeed



Agreed
Being in Cayman I'm watching this one closely "I" storms bring back memories...IVAN



Yep I hope your watching this one closely too
So far so good but like you I am watching 91L.
Quoting 504. CaribBoy:



Hopefully :))


Didnt you get hit by Earl in 2010 too?
RECON into 92L would be useful today to identify the center, maximum winds, and to see if it is closing off or not.
I really think NHC is underestimating 92L and overestimating the wind shear

I'll give it a 50/50 chance that NHC raises the % on the next TWO

If they don't raise it on next TWO they may do it tonight or tomorrow evening
I've been following this blog for a long time....I've learned a great deal....Levi being the biggest teacher as well as great postings by Partap....one thing always irritates me....what's with all the constant reposting and reposting of the same comments over and over.....is someone not getting enough attention....enough said for today.....South Florida....hot steamy and in need of a massive cold front.....
Small but persistent convection trying to build around circulation

519. JLPR2
Quoting 509. CaribBoy:



This time of year 92L should move more WNW or even NW where it is located (Marilyn 95)

But no, we have another stupid westward moving trash.


Harsh. XD
Quoting 515. HurricaneFan:

RECON into 92L would be useful today to identify the center, maximum winds, and to see if it is closing off or not.


They had it planned for tomorrow but I'm not sure they go ahead with that plan as I said NHC underestimating 92L

You never know NHC may just go ahead with it tomorrow
Quoting 517. toddbizz:

I've been following this blog for a long time. ...what's with all the constant reposting and reposting of the same comments over and over.....is someone not getting enough attention.


Lack of quote editing skills? :)
Quoting 519. JLPR2:



Harsh. XD


Don't worry about CaribBoy if it's not a Cat 5 hitting and doing loops around his island it's trash garbage etc...
523. beell
Over the last 2-4 discussions, the NHC has been slowly backing down on the closest point of approach, westward motion, and is shortening the time span before PTC Hermine makes a decisive move OTS. After at least two weeks, the western Atlantic and the east coast of the US may finally get to wave goodbye to 99L/Hermine.





POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016

Hermine continues to have the structure of a post-tropical cyclone, with practically all of the deep convection well removed to the north-northeast of the center. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured peak surface winds near 60 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. Since the cyclone is over warm waters and the vertical shear may decrease somewhat during the next couple of days, some partial transition back to a tropical cyclone is possible. However, this is not explicitly indicated in the official forecast. In any event, the intensity of the system should be at or near hurricane force over the next 48 hours or so.

Based on center fixes from the aircraft, the initial motion is 060/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric short wave trough will approach Hermine within the next day or so, and the global models forecast this vorticity maximum to merge with Hermine. This interaction is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move northeastward, then northward, and then north-northwestward during the next 36 hours or so. Since the center has already moved a little to the east of the previous track, the official forecast has been adjusted eastward. Later in the forecast period, the system should move east-northeastward, and away from the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is somewhat to the west of the latest multi-model consensus.

The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into midweek.

Once again, as we have seen for several years now, the lower level and mid levels of the atmosphere are not in sync for tropical development. 92L is showing the same displacement. I do not like to use the term decoupled as it inplies that it was once coupled, and that is not the case here.



525. SLU
Quoting 501. Kyon5:

It seems like a 2-year pattern. Maybe October 2016? ;)


.... Tomas 2010, Omar 2008. ;)
Quoting 522. wunderkidcayman:



Don't worry about CaribBoy if it's not a Cat 5 hitting and doing loops around his island it's trash garbage etc...



That is true
527. ackee
Unless the GFS or Euro show development of 92L I don't see the NHc increase it out look also same for recon I Don't see recon will flying into 92L until it in the western carribbean
Quoting 516. wunderkidcayman:

I really think NHC is underestimating 92L and overestimating the wind shear

I'll give it a 50/50 chance that NHC raises the % on the next TWO

If they don't raise it on next TWO they may do it tonight or tomorrow evening
Quoting 512. wunderkidcayman:



LLC not closed yet but it is a closing LLC



It's closing off but it's not closed just yet soon to do so I'd think





agreed 92L has got in way better organized since 8 am

and now you have banning showing up




i think we are in vary big trouble here the way 92L looking if it can closed off that low then game on


i may be jumping the gun but i go with 70/90 at the next two wish would be a major upgrade with a tropicl storm or TD later tonight or monday
529. JLPR2
Quoting 524. washingaway:

Once again, as we have seen for several years now, the lower level and mid levels of the atmosphere are not in sync for tropical development. 92L is showing the same displacement. I do not like to use the term decoupled as it inplies that it was once coupled, and that is not the case here.






I prefer misaligned & 92L has a serious case of it.
Looking at 92L on the visible I'm seeing a tropical cyclone that's organizing impressively. As an amateur, I'm wrong a lot when I think I'm seeing something, and I see some of the more seasoned bloggers on here explain away what I'm seeing in a comment if I just wait a bit.

So can anyone tell me how/why the satellite is deceiving my eyes right now?
531. SLU
Quoting 524. washingaway:

Once again, as we have seen for several years now, the lower level and mid levels of the atmosphere are not in sync for tropical development. 92L is showing the same displacement. I do not like to use the term decoupled as it inplies that it was once coupled, and that is not the case here.






This problem really became acute since Emily 2011. This is so strange. There's no El Nino to blame this year. The active era may very well be winding down if it's not over yet.

Post Hermine, still moving eastward with no sign of any northward movement yet.
Quoting 527. ackee:

Unless the GFS or Euro show development of 92L I don't see the NHc increase it out look also same for recon I Don't see recon will flying into 92L until it in the western carribbean

how many storms have you seen development with out the GFS and EURO should i start nameing a few ?
Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel 42m42 minutes ago
Air Force recon found winds near 70 mph (bias-corrected SFMR data) in #Hermine still
535. Kyon5
Quoting 529. JLPR2:



I prefer misaligned & 92L has a serious case of it.
It's best bet right now would be to relocate the LLC under the intense convection where the MLC is. Really would like to know what causes this misalignment and why it's become so common over the last few years.
Quoting 531. SLU:



This problem really became acute since Emily 2011. This is so strange. There's no El Nino to blame this year. The active era may very well be winding down if it's not over yet.


Active Era over? 8 named storms already, well ahead of average? Does not compute
537. ackee
Quoting 533. thetwilightzone:


how many storms have you seen development with out the GFS and EURO should i start nameing a few ?

I am just saying NHC outlook is more robust when the GFS and Euro agree on development
Quoting 531. SLU:



This problem really became acute since Emily 2011. This is so strange. There's no El Nino to blame this year. The active era may very well be winding down if it's not over yet.
Some people are still in denial.
539. FOREX
Quoting 515. HurricaneFan:

RECON into 92L would be useful today to identify the center, maximum winds, and to see if it is closing off or not.
99L depleted the funds.
whats check this out and see if 92L is misalignment or not unless am looking at this wrong it looks ok from 850mb too 500mb by the way 500mb looks way better then what it was last night

may be some of you guy need too start posting proof be for making your statments on things that may or may not be ture at all has you could vary well end up being wrong


850mb




700mb



500mb

Ok. Just read the 8 am. 20/30. Got it.
Quoting 541. muddertracker:

What the heck did I miss? I thought the NHC said 92l would dissipate within 24 hours?


92L has other plans for you
Barometers pretty high from New York City to Boston. 1026 mb at Albany, 1024.2 NYC, 1023.8 Montauk (east end Long Island), 1022.6 Nantucket, 1025.7 Boston. Sunny, light winds and moderate humidities all around. The seas are no doubt up some, but I haven't heard of any dire reports so far.
Quoting 541. muddertracker:

Ok. Just read the 8 am. 20/30. Got it.



and that way too low


545. FOREX
92L heading into unfavorable shear once it passes the Islands. Should be the end of it.
Quoting 530. ParanoidAndroid:

Looking at 92L on the visible I'm seeing a tropical cyclone that's organizing impressively. As an amateur, I'm wrong a lot when I think I'm seeing something, and I see some of the more seasoned bloggers on here explain away what I'm seeing in a comment if I just wait a bit.

So can anyone tell me how/why the satellite is deceiving my eyes right now?


The lower circulation is pretty far behind the upper level circulation of the disturbance. Look at the graphics Taz (thetwilightzone) posted, the 500 mb (lower level) shows the vorticity lagging behind as the system moves westward.
Quoting 528. thetwilightzone:




agreed 92L has got in way better organized since 8 am

and now you have banning showing up




i think we are in vary big trouble here the way 92L looking if it can closed off that low then game on


i may be jumping the gun but i go with 70/90 at the next two wish would be a major upgrade with a tropicl storm or TD later tonight or monday


Agreed on fist but
But knowing NHC they will gradually bring up % I think it should be 50/70% but let's see

Quoting 529. JLPR2:



I prefer misaligned & 92L has a serious case of it.


Nah 92L is much more aligned than before

Quoting 540. thetwilightzone:

whats check this out and see if 92L is misalignment or not unless am looking at this wrong it looks ok from 850mb too 500mb by the way 500mb looks way better then what it was last night

may be some of you guy need too start posting proof be for making your statments on things that may or may not be ture at all has you could vary well end up being wrong


850mb




700mb



500mb




Yes indeed
Well Carib boy could always move here to Houston where everything is green and lush and the ground "squishes" between your toes and you have to mow the grass every 5 days in the 92-97 degree heat everyday!! Sooner or later you will get your rain....only takes one storm to change everything.
Quoting 545. FOREX:

92L heading into unfavorable shear once it passes the Islands. Should be the end of it.



not really wind shear is moving out of the way has it moves W and has long has the anticyclone stays with 92L wind shear will not be a issue for 92L






i say you guys need too learn too post proof or other wise your commits will get shot down by other poster
Quoting 545. FOREX:

92L heading into unfavorable shear once it passes the Islands. Should be the end of it.


No it's not

The higher shear to its W is moving W-WNW while the upper level anticyclone over 92L is moving intandem with it and providing low shear for it
551. ackee
12z CMC continue to develop 92L
12z GFS continue to say no Development
Quoting 549. thetwilightzone:




not really wind shear is moving out of the way has it moves W and has long has the anticyclone stays with wind shear will not be a issue for 92L






i say you guys need too learn too post proof or other wise your commits will get shot down by other poster


Yes indeed
Quoting 551. ackee:

12z CMC continue to develop 92L
12z GFS continue to say no Development


The CMC develops my toilet water into a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 551. ackee:

12z CMC continue to develop 92L
12z GFS continue to say no Development


I remember a few storms that CMC showed development and GFS didn't and CMC won

This just might be one of those cases
555. ackee
Wow blog is split on what going on with 92L Poll time what will become of 92L next 24 to 120 hours ?

A TD
B TS
C open wave
D Dissipate
E remain a invest
Quoting 554. wunderkidcayman:



I remember a few storms that CMC showed development and GFS didn't and CMC won

This just might be one of those cases


If we had all the storms the CMC predicted we would be using the Greek alphabet already.
Quoting 555. ackee:

Wow blog is split on what going on with 92L Poll time what will become of 92L next 24 to 120 hours ?

A TD
B TS
C open wave
D Dissipate
E remain a invest


B and C it will be come a hurricane down the rd and D it could be come a major hurricane by time it land falls in MX
558. beell
Would not expect to see a whole lot of vorticity at 500 mb with 92L. 850 & 700 mb on the CIMSS product would work. It is still pretty much "a wave".



The Atlantic has just chambered another round.



Quoting 555. ackee:

Wow blog is split on what going on with 92L Poll time what will become of 92L next 24 to 120 hours ?

A TD
B TS
C open wave
D Dissipate
E remain a invest

B maybe even possibly F a hurricane
561. ackee
Quoting 554. wunderkidcayman:



I remember a few storms that CMC showed development and GFS didn't and CMC won

This just might be one of those cases true 92L does look great but what about shear in the eastern carribbean will it kill the system or will shear weaken tomorrow we see
I never poll on Sunday....

🌎 🌊 🌆
Quoting 514. Hurricanes101:



Didnt you get hit by Earl in 2010 too?


Yes, but if you consider that only hurricanes can bring us rain... xD
564. FOREX
Quoting 555. ackee:

Wow blog is split on what going on with 92L Poll time what will become of 92L next 24 to 120 hours ?

A TD
B TS
C open wave
D Dissipate
E remain a invest
All of the above.
Quoting 562. Patrap:

I never poll on Sunday....

🌎 🌊 🌆

I only poll when Patrap does.
Quoting 556. SunnyDaysFla:



If we had all the storms the CMC predicted we would be using the Greek alphabet already.


Agreed mind you I'm not saying CMC gets it right most of the times

Quoting 545. FOREX:

92L heading into unfavorable shear once it passes the Islands. Should be the end of it.


Soon to be heading into the Carribean graveyard. The NHC says that upper winds are "NOT expected to be conducive for development".

Quoting 566. wunderkidcayman:



Agreed mind you I'm not saying CMC gets it right most of the times




CMC is wrong the majority of the time.
pat please enough all ready with the off topic photos you are going way over broad with the off topic photos this AM please enough is a enough all ready
That's me in one of those pictures of the road washed out, haha! I'm the guy in the middle with the beard at Alligator Point.
Quoting 561. ackee:




Wind shear not a problem the high shear in the E Caribbean is pushing W-WNW and the upper level anticyclone protecting 92L is moving with 92L so low shear for the system
Quoting 550. wunderkidcayman:



No it's not

The higher shear to its W is moving W-WNW while the upper level anticyclone over 92L is moving intandem with it and providing low shear for it



Then why does the NHC say that upper level winds are not conducive for development?
NW Caribbean wishcasting?
The NHC will not go higher than 40% 50% at 2pm for 92L. I personally think they will either keep it the same or only go up by 10% on each outlook. But yeah it does look a lot better today with some nice spin and thunderstorms. Shear shoving off slowly, anticyclone around. Iffy biffy that's for sure. On another note Hermine is making me as mad as ever. Going so much farther ene than projected, watch it go much further nnw than projected. I need rain in New England. The river is nearly dry. The brook up the road is basically dried up.
Not sure if this is normal....but I'm not as focused right now on anything tropical...Kind of a weird feeling that I sort of just feel like this season could end right now and I'd be okay.

Guess thats what happens when you get hit by a hurricane that wrecks a coastal communities all over my county.

Until this gets cleaned up and life is back to normal, I'm not focused on anything else.

This is most definitely how people felt after storms like Ike and Katrina, but it's a new feeling for me
As to 92L, I was listening to some Red Cross discussions on ham radio yesterday as to local relief efforts and one of the operators made a comment that we (Big Bend) might be doing it all over again next week. The moderator on the site, who knew what 92L was, correctly pointed out that lots could happen with it between now and next week, that it was only a distant wave, and not to get riled up at this point and to focus on our current recovery.................Just Sayin.
Maybe 92L forecast for the Central Antilles will be a complete fiasco. It happened many times before! xD
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922016 09/04/16 12 UTC *

SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 18 16 17 16 20 23 29 26 32 35

This is pretty much all that needs to be noted. 92L in entering a moderate shear environment, and upper-level winds are forecast to increase to destructive levels in 3 days and beyond. There's a reason models aren't developing it.
Quoting 551. ackee:

12z CMC continue to develop 92L
12z GFS continue to say no Development


GFS and many other models were wrong about the system that became Hermine. I think that system showed us that we cannot really go by the models to determine development.
Quoting 580. Hurricanes101:



GFS and many other models were wrong about the system that became Hermine. I think that system showed us that we cannot really go by the models to determine development.

No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.
Quoting 578. CaribBoy:

Maybe 92L forecast for the Central Antilles will be a complete fiasco. It happened many times before! xD
hope for it......
And the human response to these storms in helping people, like we recently saw in Louisiana, is amazing; tons of guys on the radio the past few days, with pick-up trucks and chainsaws, volunteering to go where ever the Red Cross needed them to help cut down and clear trees from roads or peoples yards and homes.
Quoting 569. thetwilightzone:

pat please enough all ready with the off topic photos you are going way over broad with the off topic photos this AM please enough is a enough all ready

Quoting 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.


maybe, we will see I guess
Shear tendency map.

Quoting 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.


Excellent comment.
588. beell
Just because the GFS does not show obvious development on any random run elected-does not imply it will not develop! It's not a perfect model.

The seed is consistent and can be tracked. Should be enough to hold one's attention for now. Here it is in the western gulf a week from today.






With brisk trades in place, making consolidation difficult in the eastern Caribbean, there probably will not be much happening until the central Caribbean.

Strong southwesterly shear on the eastern side of a TUTT is forecast to be in place in the west central Caribbean just ahead of 92L @ mid-week. This could...
1) shear the seed.
2) provide an outflow to the north.
3). something in between 1 & 2.

Sorry (some) folks. No instant gratification from this commenter.
:)
That's why I don't trust the models that much....they are usually off. They were with Hermine and countless other storms. After 3 days out its just guessing. As far as 92L goes I think it will do ok even in the shear zone and if survives the shear in tact then look out down the road as will have better conditions after that.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 587. Bucsboltsfan:



Excellent comment.


why was the system retagged 92L if it had almost no model support?
Quoting 554. wunderkidcayman:



I remember a few storms that CMC showed development and GFS didn't and CMC won

This just might be one of those cases


For some who says he doesn't want to fet hit you sure do wishcast everything your way. Be patient, you'll get hit one day.
Only things that some of my friends in neighboring communities still without power have asked me for is if they can come over to my house to watch the FSU-Ole Miss game tomorrow night if they are still out of power. Wings and beer on me; as someone on TV stated yesterday; two things are certain in September........Football and Hurricanes.
Quoting 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No. Don't let this become a mainstream line of thinking. Hermine was a very complex storm, with its development dependent on its degree of land interaction, center reformations, the amount of convection it fired, etc. Just because they were horrendous here does not mean they are horrendous overall. They screwed up with Debby and a complex pattern too, but I don't think anybody stopped referencing them afterward. Our reliable models are skillful, just not infallible.

And yet, the models have been very accurate with storms in the central and eastern Pacific. Something is different between the two regions, perhaps something like the SAL, which in turn may have something to do with the larger overall warming of the global climate. The difference is signaling something worth a closer look by researchers.
596. vis0

Quoting 275. pureet1948:



Well, the GFS thinks 92L, just like CMC, will develop near Jamaica, but, in contrast, shunts it to southern Florida. Should we take that with a (big) grain of salt?

. NO!!!!
. . .but you can take 10 million little grains of salt
(vis0 running away in 3 stooges zig zag style as giant sideboard with 30 dishes fly by vis0...vis0
sez; "oooh lookie here" while grabbing a flying peta bread..."oh" grabs flying biscuit to catch
bits of creamed chipped beef and Aislinpaps's "how to dish it(in this crazy world)" cookbook.

MOST IMPORTANT is there is a new blogbyte, stay tuned as we're in the HISTORICALLY active portion of the ATL Basins TS season.aka WxU's Hysterically active period. Observe, report & stay informed all on weatherdynasty oh wait not renamed yet.
Read up on the flooding throughout the south/SE (portions of Caribbean) and pick a way to help those in need.